Welcome to another edition of Lowball!
Lowball! takes a look at home sales from a different perspective. For those new to Lowball!, a lowball offer is when a buyer offers a significantly lower bid than asking in hopes that the seller accepts the offer. We take a list of home sales from the past month and pick out the sales that have the highest percentage difference between original list price and selling price.
The purpose of Lowball! is to show buyers that the market has changed and buyers now have considerably more leverage than sellers. Just a short time ago, Lowball! offers would have been laughed at and discarded, however, not any more. The fact that so many under-asking offers are being accepted is clear proof that the market is changing.
The first table below contains Lowball sales of 20% or greater off the Original List Price.
MLS# | Town | OLP | LP | SP | % off OLP | $ off OLP |
2302695 | West Milford Twp. | $172,000 | $160,000 | $100,000 | 41.9% | $72,000 |
2238966 | Newark City (1614) | $122,500 | $114,900 | $72,000 | 41.2% | $50,500 |
2258527 | Harding Twp. (2313) | $1,460,000 | $899,000 | $881,500 | 39.6% | $578,500 |
2311282 | Hoboken City* (1805) | $894,999 | $775,000 | $600,000 | 33.0% | $294,999 |
2301653 | Roxbury Twp.* (2336) | $217,000 | $173,600 | $145,600 | 32.9% | $71,400 |
2305193 | Readington Twp. | $339,900 | $259,900 | $229,000 | 32.6% | $110,900 |
2268892 | Flemington Boro | $515,000 | $490,000 | $350,000 | 32.0% | $165,000 |
2291343 | Chatham Twp. (2305) | $379,000 | $339,000 | $257,665 | 32.0% | $121,335 |
2311678 | Maplewood Twp. | $250,000 | $250,000 | $170,000 | 32.0% | $80,000 |
2255174 | Delaware Twp. (1907) | $975,000 | $789,900 | $675,000 | 30.8% | $300,000 |
2325138 | Mahwah Twp.* (1133) | $455,000 | $410,000 | $320,000 | 29.7% | $135,000 |
2275066 | East Orange City | $219,900 | $209,900 | $155,000 | 29.5% | $64,900 |
2280914 | Bridgewater Twp. | $329,900 | $269,900 | $235,000 | 28.8% | $94,900 |
2303646 | Mendham Twp. (2320) | $1,685,000 | $1,385,000 | $1,204,973 | 28.5% | $480,027 |
2305545 | Bridgewater Twp. | $549,900 | $499,900 | $397,500 | 27.7% | $152,400 |
2106433 | West Caldwell Twp. | $1,100,000 | $849,000 | $800,000 | 27.3% | $300,000 |
2357073 | Mountain Lakes Boro | $1,599,900 | $1,179,000 | $1,175,000 | 26.6% | $424,900 |
2300263 | East Hanover Twp. | $1,299,000 | $999,900 | $955,000 | 26.5% | $344,000 |
2258841 | West Milford Twp. | $309,900 | $269,900 | $228,000 | 26.4% | $81,900 |
2260491 | Randolph Twp. | $1,950,000 | $1,650,000 | $1,450,000 | 25.6% | $500,000 |
2334184 | Belleville Twp. (1601) | $476,335 | $445,835 | $356,000 | 25.3% | $120,335 |
2224267 | Paterson City* (2508) | $399,000 | $349,000 | $300,000 | 24.8% | $99,000 |
2262959 | Mendham Twp. | $1,525,000 | $1,350,000 | $1,150,000 | 24.6% | $375,000 |
2289946 | Oakland Boro* (1142) | $225,000 | $202,500 | $170,000 | 24.4% | $55,000 |
2273944 | Ridgewood Village | $1,450,000 | $1,204,822 | $1,100,000 | 24.1% | $350,000 |
2286426 | Clifton City* (2502) | $499,000 | $395,000 | $380,000 | 23.8% | $119,000 |
2322813 | East Orange City | $379,900 | $315,000 | $290,000 | 23.7% | $89,900 |
2273274 | Mahwah Twp. (1133) | $799,000 | $675,000 | $610,000 | 23.7% | $189,000 |
2267905 | Verona Twp. (1620) | $299,900 | $245,000 | $230,000 | 23.3% | $69,900 |
2313194 | Irvington Twp.* (1609) | $209,900 | $209,900 | $161,000 | 23.3% | $48,900 |
2244369 | Newark City (1614) | $149,900 | $149,900 | $115,000 | 23.3% | $34,900 |
2244346 | Newark City (1614) | $149,900 | $149,900 | $115,000 | 23.3% | $34,900 |
2239519 | Wayne Twp. (2514) | $149,900 | $139,900 | $115,000 | 23.3% | $34,900 |
2280145 | Harding Twp. (2313) | $2,375,000 | $1,975,000 | $1,830,000 | 22.9% | $545,000 |
2305102 | Hawthorne Boro | $479,000 | $399,000 | $370,000 | 22.8% | $109,000 |
2228426 | Lebanon Twp.* (1919) | $695,000 | $589,000 | $540,000 | 22.3% | $155,000 |
2298423 | Paterson City* (2508) | $409,900 | $359,000 | $320,000 | 21.9% | $89,900 |
2278711 | Rockaway Twp. | $429,000 | $359,000 | $335,000 | 21.9% | $94,000 |
2306271 | West Caldwell Twp. | $339,000 | $319,000 | $265,000 | 21.8% | $74,000 |
2263426 | Chatham Boro* (2304) | $2,800,000 | $2,500,000 | $2,200,000 | 21.4% | $600,000 |
2283964 | Boonton Town (2301) | $539,900 | $469,000 | $425,000 | 21.3% | $114,900 |
2297890 | Franklin Twp. (2708) | $330,000 | $279,900 | $260,000 | 21.2% | $70,000 |
2321282 | Green Brook Twp. | $649,900 | $579,900 | $515,000 | 20.8% | $134,900 |
2321293 | Warren Twp. (2720) | $649,900 | $579,900 | $515,000 | 20.8% | $134,900 |
2293556 | Montvale Boro (1136) | $599,900 | $499,900 | $475,500 | 20.7% | $124,400 |
2266311 | Lebanon Twp. (1919) | $579,900 | $489,000 | $460,000 | 20.7% | $119,900 |
2269937 | Clifton City* (2502) | $479,000 | $399,900 | $380,000 | 20.7% | $99,000 |
2298253 | Clifton City (2502) | $399,000 | $333,900 | $317,000 | 20.6% | $82,000 |
2285839 | Montclair Twp. (1613) | $559,900 | $499,900 | $445,000 | 20.5% | $114,900 |
2005240 | Bloomingdale Boro | $349,900 | $289,900 | $279,000 | 20.3% | $70,900 |
2308879 | Morris Twp.* (2324) | $689,000 | $585,000 | $550,000 | 20.2% | $139,000 |
2289318 | Madison Boro (2318) | $1,375,000 | $1,199,000 | $1,100,000 | 20.0% | $275,000 |
The second table contains Lowball sales of $150,000 or greater off the Original List Price.
MLS# | Town | OLP | LP | SP | % off OLP | $ off OLP |
2263426 | Chatham Boro* (2304) | $2,800,000 | $2,500,000 | $2,200,000 | 21.4% | $600,000 |
2258527 | Harding Twp. (2313) | $1,460,000 | $899,000 | $881,500 | 39.6% | $578,500 |
2280145 | Harding Twp. (2313) | $2,375,000 | $1,975,000 | $1,830,000 | 22.9% | $545,000 |
2264923 | Essex Fells Twp. (1606) | $2,850,000 | $2,600,000 | $2,340,000 | 17.9% | $510,000 |
2260491 | Randolph Twp.* (2332) | $1,950,000 | $1,650,000 | $1,450,000 | 25.6% | $500,000 |
2303646 | Mendham Twp. (2320) | $1,685,000 | $1,385,000 | $1,204,973 | 28.5% | $480,027 |
2328804 | Mendham Boro* (2319) | $6,750,000 | $6,750,000 | $6,300,000 | 6.7% | $450,000 |
2357073 | Mountain Lakes Boro | $1,599,900 | $1,179,000 | $1,175,000 | 26.6% | $424,900 |
2262959 | Mendham Twp.* (2320) | $1,525,000 | $1,350,000 | $1,150,000 | 24.6% | $375,000 |
2273944 | Ridgewood Village (1151) | $1,450,000 | $1,204,822 | $1,100,000 | 24.1% | $350,000 |
2249000 | Bernardsville Boro* (2703) | $1,800,000 | $1,650,000 | $1,450,000 | 19.4% | $350,000 |
2300263 | East Hanover Twp. (2310) | $1,299,000 | $999,900 | $955,000 | 26.5% | $344,000 |
2255174 | Delaware Twp. (1907) | $975,000 | $789,900 | $675,000 | 30.8% | $300,000 |
2106433 | West Caldwell Twp. | $1,100,000 | $849,000 | $800,000 | 27.3% | $300,000 |
2298514 | Chatham Boro* (2304) | $1,499,000 | $1,299,000 | $1,200,000 | 19.9% | $299,000 |
2311282 | Hoboken City* (1805) | $894,999 | $775,000 | $600,000 | 33.0% | $294,999 |
2289318 | Madison Boro (2318) | $1,375,000 | $1,199,000 | $1,100,000 | 20.0% | $275,000 |
2301437 | Watchung Boro* (2721) | $1,475,000 | $1,300,000 | $1,200,000 | 18.6% | $275,000 |
2279075 | Mountain Lakes Boro | $1,549,000 | $1,299,000 | $1,275,000 | 17.7% | $274,000 |
2268967 | Tewksbury Twp. (1924) | $1,449,900 | $1,179,900 | $1,179,900 | 18.6% | $270,000 |
2262980 | Kinnelon Boro* (2315) | $1,244,579 | $1,244,579 | $999,000 | 19.7% | $245,579 |
2245699 | West Orange Twp. (1622) | $1,700,000 | $1,590,000 | $1,475,000 | 13.2% | $225,000 |
2331076 | Chester Twp. (2307) | $1,299,900 | $1,299,900 | $1,075,000 | 17.3% | $224,900 |
2305714 | Mountain Lakes Boro | $1,150,000 | $989,000 | $950,000 | 17.4% | $200,000 |
2329078 | Chatham Boro* (2304) | $1,295,000 | $1,295,000 | $1,100,000 | 15.1% | $195,000 |
2273274 | Mahwah Twp. (1133) | $799,000 | $675,000 | $610,000 | 23.7% | $189,000 |
2285063 | Livingston Twp. (1610) | $1,050,000 | $899,000 | $862,500 | 17.9% | $187,500 |
2316455 | Chatham Twp.* (2305) | $1,150,000 | $997,000 | $965,000 | 16.1% | $185,000 |
2299498 | Florham Park Boro (2311) | $1,435,000 | $1,295,000 | $1,250,000 | 12.9% | $185,000 |
2250966 | Wayne Twp. (2514) | $1,275,000 | $1,225,000 | $1,095,000 | 14.1% | $180,000 |
2315008 | East Hanover Twp. (2310) | $1,100,000 | $975,000 | $925,000 | 15.9% | $175,000 |
2229512 | Livingston Twp. (1610) | $1,525,000 | $1,525,000 | $1,350,000 | 11.5% | $175,000 |
2278861 | Livingston Twp.* (1610) | $949,900 | $809,900 | $775,000 | 18.4% | $174,900 |
2290199 | Long Hill Twp.* (2317) | $1,299,000 | $1,190,000 | $1,125,000 | 13.4% | $174,000 |
2335104 | North Caldwell Boro | $1,499,000 | $1,499,000 | $1,325,000 | 11.6% | $174,000 |
2265956 | Mahwah Twp. (1133) | $1,699,900 | $1,599,900 | $1,530,000 | 10.0% | $169,900 |
2268892 | Flemington Boro (1909) | $515,000 | $490,000 | $350,000 | 32.0% | $165,000 |
2282568 | Clifton City (2502) | $1,090,000 | $1,090,000 | $925,000 | 15.1% | $165,000 |
2228426 | Lebanon Twp.* (1919) | $695,000 | $589,000 | $540,000 | 22.3% | $155,000 |
2305545 | Bridgewater Twp.* (2706) | $549,900 | $499,900 | $397,500 | 27.7% | $152,400 |
2325193 | Chatham Twp. (2305) | $1,350,000 | $1,350,000 | $1,200,000 | 11.1% | $150,000 |
2307793 | Morris Twp. (2324) | $1,490,000 | $1,374,900 | $1,340,000 | 10.1% | $150,000 |
2294170 | Montville Twp. (2322) | $1,950,000 | $1,950,000 | $1,800,000 | 7.7% | $150,000 |
Full sales data can be found here:
Sales-Jan06a.xls (Excel)
jb
Just to note, these are GSMLS sales only. There are some SD (Old Sold) listings in included as well. While I deleted most of the absurdly late postings, I did keep the sales from November onwards. Close Date and DOM data is available in the XLS above.
jb
JB,
Should that link point to https://njrereport.com/files/Sales-Jan07a.xls instead of 06a?
JB, I downloaded Sales-Jan07a.xls and it appears there is no data from Middlesex County. Intentional?
I’m not sure how important those OLP listings are any more, they were obviously unrealistic in many cases and detract from how dramatic many of the LP lowballs actually are.
Any details on the Flemington house?
# 2283964,
20% off in the Mountain Lakes school district?? Must be a typo or a mistake.
Didn’t see any sales in Summit. I guess Summit being a good school district on a NYC train line didn’t help any of the houses in the market last month.
Wow. This thing is zooming back to the historic income to price ratios, or inflation plus trend lines. I just recall that big NYT article last year where one developer said that we were seeing the “Europeanization” of US housing markets. So much for the theory that there was some fundamental shift in supply and demand. I hope the new Congress uses this moment to regulate financial markets so that residential real estate no longer becomes subject to speculative excess. There is so much human harm being done on this massive roller coaster that is not measured with financial metrics.
jb,
Thanks for posting the data. Now off for a closer look…
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
No Union County sales at all? I think the data was accidentally left out?
BC Bob Says:
# 2283964,
20% off in the Mountain Lakes school district?? Must be a typo or a mistake.
I’m seeing quite a few houses in ML being sold 20% off OLP. Doesn’t mean they are not still amazingly overpriced, they are for sure.
Anyone know why there are virtually NO lowballs from Bergen County?
The majority of Bergen listings are on NJMLS, a different MLS system. It’s why I specified that above.
jb
so the lack of UC listings is due to no sales at all? UC is part of GSMLS. …and all of Richard’s friends are selling their homes in Westfield for top dollar.
I am confused. The public site of GSMLS.COM has Middlesex County but the data posted does not.
Wow! When I think about the Lowball! columns that were posted a year ago, this list really stands out terms of volume and in the percent price drops. If I’m not mistaken the largest percent price drops now are about double what they were a year ago. This market has really changed a great deal in the past year.
Keep up the good work, James!
JB: Thanks for posting the information. This is really great.
One request, Is it possible to put Address information in this spreadsheet?
I know we don’t see address when the house is in market, but I am not sure if there is any restriction after it has sold.
Thx.
I am confused. The public site of GSMLS.COM has Middlesex County but the data posted does not.
sync,
Sorry, I did forget to include Middlesex.
jb
Sync,
Updated.
jb
when i sell my home i’ll list for double so i can make the top of the lowball list.
seneca, your views versus mine on the RE market isn’t a bifurcation. your methods to draw such distinctions are crude.
when i sell my home i’ll list for double so i can make the top of the lowball list.
Richard,
Don’t be so silly, look at the how long, on average, those lowball properties have been on the market. DOM is in the spreadsheet or you can look the listings up yourself.
Let me cherry pick, if I may..
Harding, 231 days on market
Delaware, 222 days on market
West Caldwell, 424 days on market
We all know that all sellers have the luxury of time, and don’t mind waiting almost a year to sell their home.
jb
Lowballs of 20% or greater had an average DOM of 162 days, almost 6 months.
Sales from greater than 0% to less than 20% off OLP had an average DOM of 75 days.
If we exclude the greater than 0% to less than 5% (as normal sales), average DOM jumps to 87 days.
If we look at that exclusion group alone, average DOM is 58. Also, if we look at sales at asking, average DOM is 51.
jb
Richard,
You could knock me over with a feather! With regard to the dissimilitude between your views on the RE market and mine, we agree! See, we agree on something. I’m a uniter, not a divider so I will bask in the glow of our agreement to disagree. The warm-fuzzy feeling is overpowering.
The methods I employ to reach my conclusions on the local RE market are no more “crude” than yours. But you are certainly more boorish in your approach than I am.
Where are all the Westfield sales? Where are they? Where are the Summit sales, the Cranford sales, Scotch Plains, Clark…… where they at? How do you interpret the lowball data with regard to Union County? Educate me if you will.
I see many more lowballs in the future for Westfield and Summit. Some of the asking prices are ludicrous in these towns.
JB,
Thanks!
I see that fort lee is never on the list,
HA HA HA it will never fall, and we will make more money building 1/2 houses and townhouses behind Tacobells!!!!
HA HA HA
Taking a look at the lowball information for the last four months shows information crybabywannabes might not want to see. Looking at lowball data MEDIANS for OLP, LP, SL, %off Lp, %off LP, and DOM (where available:
Median OLP LP SP off OLP off LP DOM
Oct 410000 399000 394000 5.0% 3.84% —
Nov-a 399000 385000 375000 4.77% 2.57% —
Nov-b 399900 389000 374900 5.5% 3.62% 63
Dec 400000 394900 380000 6.16% 3.77% 63
Jan 424900 402500 395000 6.95% 1.86% 73
OLP, LP and SP have increased since October 2006. Sellers are getting anywhere from 96.5% to 98% of their asking listing prices, when ALL the data is looked at. The data sure doesn’t show the big 20% correction, 2003 prices or vanishing equity going poof balleyhooed by many of the crybabywannabes on this blog.
Yes, some noncrybabies price their homes way too high, and these homes sit for a long time before selling well below OLP. We see examples posted here daily. Other sellers obtain pricing well above LP in a short time.
Note that over the last four months, median sale price has gone UP!! DOM isn’t too bad, either. Crybabywannabes, where’s the RE crash and burn you keep writing about?
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
Note that over the last four months, median sale price has gone UP!! DOM isn’t too bad, either. Crybabywannabes, where’s the RE crash and burn you keep writing about?
You win – NJ will always be expensive, all private buisness will leave the state, and all there will be left is govermental workers who will pay themselve huge salaries, the whole state will be getting more and more in debt but it is ok because NJ is next to NY.
listentotheWAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHH!,
What, in your view, is the “right” price relative to 1H2005 pricing? Should a buyer look to pay same levels, +5% over 1H2005, -5% against 1H2005, more, less? What level constitutes FMV pricing?
>> some noncrybabies price their homes way too high
What level is way too high? +5% vs 2005, more?
I found a home I like that is +12% over the 2006 comps. It meets all the requirements I have for a home so I just need to know if I am getting a deal or ripped off. What say you?
Can someone give me the details for the property on this list:
MLS 2311678
Thanks!
The information presented is merely data points. The data make no indication if property is correctly valued. The dataset merely states that prices are not dropping.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
listen,
Understood. I am not asking about those specific data points. I am just asking, in general, how would you advise someone buying a home today to negotiate price? What would you advise they shoot for, relative to 2005/2006 price levels, to ensure they don’t overpay?
I am asking an honest question here. I am genuinely interested in your opinion.
How do I see by MLS #ID and in which web site?
I want to see the details of the MLSID from Edison which had low balls. for example
2318935
Thanks in advance
Paul,
You need to have access to the full MLS which is primarily restricted to those with a RE license.
Seriously, whats up with my ‘hood? Or are all the sales being done privately by the Asians?
I think the results are great. The total average difference between the OLP and the SP is around 8%.
Paul, sometimes I get lucky with Trulia.com on sold prices. But I certainly don’t think the data is up to date.
Seneca,
I’d definitely say 12% over last years prices is way too high. Most data that I have seen related to Jersey indicates that prices have dropped or incentives are higher. In my opinion you’re getting screwed. But that’s just my two cents. If you’re in the middle of negotiations, see if they can pay your taxes for the next couple of years or try to negotiate a sellers consession instead.
Homebuyer,
Thanks for the response. I was really asking because I would like listentothecrybabies response to my question. S/he has expressed previously that anyone on this blog unwilling to pay today’s prices is a crybaby who wishes they had bought years ago when prices were still reasonable.
I haven’t heard him/her offer any guidance as to what is a reasonable price to pay.
Of course, I would never pay 12% over 2005 comps let alone any percent over 2005 comps. I would just love to get some practical and executable advice from someone who thus far has only been able to criticize those of us who believe prices will move downward over the next few years.
Listen, I ask again, what would be YOUR strategy in negotiating in today’s market. That is, how do you determine fair market price?
seneca,
Sorry for the delayed reply; I don’t post on this blog every day.
If I were buying in this market, I would look at numerous homes in the location(s) I wanted to buy, cull out the turdboxes and unmaintained shacks , and then compare similiarly good condition and size properties. Look at current sales and prices of homes under contract, not comps from 2005 or before while keeping in mind that not all data would be shown by a RE agent. Find the house that I like and feel comfortable in. Then I’d bid at least 10% under list price, making sure the seller knows my offer is valid and ability to buy is strong. Keep a max price in mind and do not exceed it. Base the purchase decision on my requirements, and not what the RE agent says they should be. The goal is to buy at the lowest price the seller will accept while not exceeding my max price.
Some caveats:
1) Don’t buy if I plan on staying less than two years.
2) No creative, dumb-ass financing for the purchase.
3) Buy what I can comfortably afford, no more.
4) Buy a home first and foremost as a place to live, and the utility that provides. Making quick money, even in a hot market, is not my first priority. (I reserve that for rental property).
5) Move in, enjoy, and don’t fret the immediate ups and downs of the market.
6) There always is an element of risk that cannot be controlled. Unexpected life changes, unplanned medical expenses, job loss, a need to move can arise.
7) Finally, if worse ever came to worse, I’d mail the keys to the bank, move out, and never look back. That is why mortgage interest, and the risk premium it represents, is charged. It is merely a business transaction.
I’m willing to bet the reasons that keep many people on this blog from buying RE now kept them from buying three or four years ago and will keep them buying from buying in the future. Instead, they will remain crybabywannabes.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!
listen,
Thanks for the response, no worries about the delay, I have a day job as well and sometimes can’t post for days at a time.
Couple of problems I foresee in using your approach. Maybe you can help me work through them.
>> Look at current sales and prices of homes
>> under contract, not comps from 2005 or
>> before
I agree in theory with this but the places I am looking have very few comps due to the low sales figures from the last 3-4 months. Sometimes, to find a comp in a particular neighborhood, I have no choice but to go back to 2005.
>> Then I’d bid at least 10% under
>> list price
This just doesn’t fly because most of the homes I look at are priced tens of thousands if not a full hundred thousand over sales from 2005 and 2006. We are talking 25% or more over previous sales. Maybe its just my dumb luck that I happen to like homes for sale that are being listed by the most greedy sellers out there. In any case, offering 10-15% under the asking price puts me at about 10% over the recent (12 months or less) comps.
Maybe it makes me a crybaby to not want to pay that much, but I don’t think the pricing makes sense for anyone except the seller. This really doesn’t boil down to a can’t-afford-to situation for me, the money is there.
I personally don’t think any FMV pricing strategy can be based on ASKING prices because they range from the “priced right” category to the “utterly ridiculous”.
Value has to be based on something else that is grounded in something standardized like square footage, assessed value, lot size, quality of school systems, recent comps, etc. Really a multiple regression that combines elements of the aforementioned points as well as numerous others.
10% or more off asking just doesn’t cut it in today’s market.
seneca,
To a degree, I agree with you. (Yes, I can be reasonable.) Your statement that prices are hundreds of thousands over 2005 and 2006 are exactly why I want current data, including data on houses under contract. Yes, current data is difficult to find. But it is way more valuable than a subjective assessment that a seller is greedy. The seller has the right to ask any price he wants, but you/I don’t have to bite.
Finding and buying a house is not an exact science, and it makes a quantitative person like me (and I suspect you) crazy trying to quantify intangibles.
Ultimately, all I can add is if a home appears overpriced to you, then it is. Don’t let a RE agent tell you otherwise. One needs to look at enough homes to find the one that is priced right and meets his needs. Not an easy task, but it’s also one that shouldn’t take many months or years. Otherwise, one becomes a crybabywannabe.
Hope this helps, thanks for asking.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!