Buyers gaining the upper hand?

From the WSJ Online:

Housing Glut Gives Buyers Upper Hand

Amid a continuing glut of homes for sale in most of the country, buyers should have plenty of choices and lots of bargaining power in the spring selling season — typically the busiest time of the year.

Many builders and real-estate brokers, for their part, hope the housing market will start recovering this year as buyers respond to price cuts and other sweeteners offered by increasingly nervous sellers. In some markets, agents say, buyer traffic has picked up in the last month or two.
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Given all that, sellers should expect buyers to take their time and be tougher negotiators. David Lee, who recently moved to Wenham, Mass., to take up a post as an associate professor of physics at Gordon College, has rented a home for his family and says they plan to be “quite picky and choosy” as they look for a home to buy. Dr. Lee doesn’t feel any pressure to decide quickly because he figures prices won’t rise in the near term and could fall further.

A quarterly survey of housing conditions in 28 major metropolitan areas by The Wall Street Journal showed that the inventory of unsold homes at the end of 2006 was up substantially in nearly all of the markets from the already plentiful level of a year earlier. The biggest increases were in the metro areas of Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville, Fla.; Phoenix; and Portland, Ore. (Unlike the other cities, Portland had a lean supply of homes a year before.)

The survey also includes recent pricing trends — nearly all negative — based on surveys of real-estate agents by Banc of America Securities in New York, a unit of Bank of America Corp., as well as data on late mortgage payments and job-creation prospects from Moody’s Economy.com, a research firm in West Chester, Pa. Employment figures have a huge effect on housing demand.
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Manhattan, big bonuses recently doled out by Wall Street firms will help support the market in this year’s first half, says Jonathan Miller, chief executive officer of Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers in New York. But a rash of new condo developments will help moderate prices. He expects price increases this year to average 5% to 6% in Manhattan. On Long Island, he believes prices are likely to be flat to slightly higher this year.

In New Jersey, “I’m optimistic that home sales will begin to rebound in the spring,” says Jeffrey Otteau, president of Otteau Valuation Group Inc., an appraisal and research firm in East Brunswick, N.J. “However, that would signal the end of the decline — not a return to higher prices.”

Mr. Otteau figures home prices fell an average of about 10% in New Jersey last year. For 2007, he believes homes costing less than about $600,000 are likely to rise modestly, around 3%, while homes above that level are about flat. In the luxury end of the market, prices may edge down again this year, Mr. Otteau says.