Lowball! March 2007

Welcome to another edition of Lowball!

Lowball! takes a look at home sales from a different perspective. For those new to Lowball!, a lowball offer is when a buyer offers a significantly lower bid than asking in hopes that the seller accepts the offer. We take a list of home sales from the past month and pick out the sales that have the highest percentage difference between original list price and selling price.

The purpose of Lowball! is to show buyers that the market has changed and buyers now have considerably more leverage than sellers. Just a short time ago, Lowball! offers would have been laughed at and discarded, however, not any more. The fact that so many under-asking offers are being accepted is clear proof that the market is changing.

The first table below contains Lowball sales of 20% or greater off the Original List Price.

 MLS  Town  OLP  LP  SP  % off OLP  $ off OLP
2223440 Hardyston Twp. $179,900 $143,000 $95,000 47.2% $84,900
2277922 Independence Twp. $450,000 $275,000 $250,000 44.4% $200,000
2336286 Phillipsburg Town $159,900 $115,000 $90,000 43.7% $69,900
2321999 Elizabeth City $479,900 $479,900 $290,000 39.6% $189,900
2226538 Blairstown Twp. $650,000 $495,000 $425,000 34.6% $225,000
2327755 Branchburg Twp. $450,000 $399,900 $300,000 33.3% $150,000
2354690 Mendham Twp. $1,200,000 $1,200,000 $825,000 31.3% $375,000
2275609 Stillwater Twp. $239,900 $199,900 $168,000 30.0% $71,900
2360200 Wanaque Boro $450,000 $450,000 $320,000 28.9% $130,000
2245985 Mahwah Twp. $775,000 $599,900 $555,000 28.4% $220,000
2277032 Andover Twp. $3,500,000 $2,900,000 $2,538,000 27.5% $962,000
2256538 Lake Mohawk Sparta $2,500,900 $2,000,000 $1,815,000 27.4% $685,900
2270544 Berkeley Heights Twp. $599,900 $449,999 $440,000 26.7% $159,900
2241307 Hillside Twp. $380,000 $285,000 $280,000 26.3% $100,000
2268877 Livingston Twp. $849,900 $669,900 $630,000 25.9% $219,900
2336323 Hopatcong Boro $184,500 $144,900 $138,000 25.2% $46,500
2274990 Millburn Twp. $3,495,000 $2,800,000 $2,620,000 25.0% $875,000
2270841 Roselle Boro $259,000 $225,000 $195,000 24.7% $64,000
2316407 Montgomery Twp. $1,680,000 $1,399,900 $1,265,000 24.7% $415,000
2310373 Hackettstown Town $329,900 $274,900 $250,000 24.2% $79,900
2311859 Lake Mohawk Sparta $369,000 $279,900 $279,900 24.1% $89,100
2313471 Chatham Twp. $1,595,000 $1,299,000 $1,210,000 24.1% $385,000
2337539 Roxbury Twp. $294,900 $275,900 $225,000 23.7% $69,900
2235213 Newark City $249,000 $199,900 $190,000 23.7% $59,000
2276023 Montclair Twp. $379,000 $299,900 $290,000 23.5% $89,000
2329206 Mount Olive Twp. $319,000 $299,000 $244,300 23.4% $74,700
2267386 Lebanon Twp. $675,000 $525,000 $520,000 23.0% $155,000
2320682 Kinnelon Boro $630,000 $579,900 $490,000 22.2% $140,000
2334078 Union Twp. $385,000 $300,000 $300,000 22.1% $85,000
2307467 Bridgewater Twp. $389,900 $354,900 $305,000 21.8% $84,900
2306015 Lambertville City $575,000 $530,000 $450,000 21.7% $125,000
2274266 West Milford Twp. $277,900 $248,700 $217,500 21.7% $60,400
2313686 Bernards Twp. $695,000 $555,000 $545,000 21.6% $150,000
2297442 Riverdale Boro $389,900 $339,900 $306,500 21.4% $83,400
2283259 Harding Twp. $635,000 $585,000 $500,000 21.3% $135,000
2299694 Lafayette Twp. $399,000 $349,000 $315,000 21.1% $84,000
2317388 Hillside Twp. $329,000 $269,000 $260,000 21.0% $69,000
2313119 Glen Ridge Boro Twp. $499,000 $399,900 $395,000 20.8% $104,000
2319872 Piscataway Twp. $325,000 $275,000 $260,000 20.0% $65,000
2287921 Franklin Twp. $450,000 $350,000 $360,000 20.0% $90,000
2313250 Belleville Twp. $349,900 $299,900 $280,000 20.0% $69,900

The second table below contains Lowball sales of $200,000 or greater off the Original List Price.

 MLS  Town  OLP  LP  SP  % off OLP  $ off OLP
2277032 Andover Twp. $3,500,000 $2,900,000 $2,538,000 27.5% $962,000
2274990 Millburn Twp. $3,495,000 $2,800,000 $2,620,000 25.0% $875,000
2256538 Lake Mohawk Sparta $2,500,900 $2,000,000 $1,815,000 27.4% $685,900
2316407 Montgomery Twp. $1,680,000 $1,399,900 $1,265,000 24.7% $415,000
2279300 Tewksbury Twp. $2,395,000 $2,195,000 $2,000,000 16.5% $395,000
2257317 Mountain Lakes Boro $2,495,000 $2,250,000 $2,100,000 15.8% $395,000
2313471 Chatham Twp. $1,595,000 $1,299,000 $1,210,000 24.1% $385,000
2332355 Westfield Twp. $2,375,000 $1,999,999 $1,999,999 15.8% $375,001
2354690 Mendham Twp. $1,200,000 $1,200,000 $825,000 31.3% $375,000
2109338 Mendham Boro $1,975,000 $1,650,000 $1,600,000 19.0% $375,000
2252469 Mountain Lakes Boro $1,899,000 $1,699,000 $1,550,000 18.4% $349,000
2276661 Mountain Lakes Boro $1,499,000 $1,275,000 $1,200,000 19.9% $299,000
2317707 Upper Saddle River Boro $1,799,000 $1,599,000 $1,500,000 16.6% $299,000
2102487 Westfield Twp. $1,575,000 $1,449,000 $1,290,000 18.1% $285,000
2329236 Summit City $1,500,000 $1,500,000 $1,225,000 18.3% $275,000
2323368 Franklin Lakes Boro $3,699,900 $3,699,900 $3,450,000 6.8% $249,900
2315389 Montclair Twp. $1,999,000 $1,849,000 $1,750,000 12.5% $249,000
2226538 Blairstown Twp. $650,000 $495,000 $425,000 34.6% $225,000
2245985 Mahwah Twp. $775,000 $599,900 $555,000 28.4% $220,000
2268877 Livingston Twp. $849,900 $669,900 $630,000 25.9% $219,900
2292671 Morris Twp. $1,299,000 $1,099,000 $1,080,000 16.9% $219,000
2318709 Warren Twp. $1,434,500 $1,299,000 $1,219,000 15.0% $215,500
2322157 Westfield Twp. $1,199,900 $1,095,000 $995,000 17.1% $204,900
2276129 Wyckoff Twp. $2,599,999 $2,599,999 $2,399,000 7.7% $200,999
2277922 Independence Twp. $450,000 $275,000 $250,000 44.4% $200,000

Caveat Emptor!

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19 Responses to Lowball! March 2007

  1. rhymingrealtor says:

    Posted at 7:49 Jim? Sleeping late?I’m with Chifi on this one, Slacker!

    KL

  2. James Bednar says:

    Yeah, I can’t seem to recover from the early DST change.

  3. James Bednar says:

    For the folks looking for the spreadsheet:

    https://njrereport.com/files/Sales-Mar07.xls

    jb

  4. James Bednar says:

    I’d like everyone to take a look at the spreadsheet and notice the relationship between Days on Market and % off OLP.

    1) Homes that are priced right will sell.

    2) They will sell quickly.

    3) They will sell for asking, or over.

    Homes that are overpriced will not sell, they will sit and stagnate until the seller capitulates.

    jb

  5. Bobby G says:

    Can anyone point me to some details on MLS 2275609? thanks!

  6. James Bednar says:

    MLS 2275609 – Stillwater, NJ
    977 MOUNT BENEVOLENCE
    70×170 lot
    Smaller home 2/1

    Remarks: LARGER THAN IT APPEARS. CONVENIENT LOCATION/BLUE RIBBON SCHOOL/NICELY LANDSCAPED LEVEL LOT. 1ST FLOOR MBR /FORMAL DR/ PANTRY – LAUNDRY ROOM OFF KITCHEN. BEAUTIFUL FIELDSTONE FP- PELLET STOVE INSERT

  7. R Patrick says:

    Does this cover all sales ( listed with the County ) or only realtor sales. So all the side deals in Fort Lee might not be listed?

  8. Bobby G says:

    Thanks! Is there anyway to get a picture of this property?

    BTW, the average (for what it’s worth) % of OLP for all properties in the spreadsheet is 6.3%. DOM averages out to 87 days.

  9. James Bednar says:

    RP,

    This is GSMLS only, not NJMLS, so you won’t find alot of Bergen included here.

    jb

  10. RAJ says:

    Can anyone provide more details on listing#2296466?
    In general what is the best way to find details about a listing given a listing# on this site?

  11. February EXISTING HOME SALES down bigtime vs. year/year !!!

    READ

    The NAR f*cks over the gullible MSM and sheeple, leads them to believe used home sales were up last month. That was NOT the case.

    http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/2007/03/nar-fcks-over-gullible-msm-and-sheeple.html

    Dubious NAR report shows home sales continue to crater, off 3.7% vs. last year, while unsold inventory explodes by another 763,000 units and median sales price (without incentives) is down 7.6% from peak

    February used home sales (per the dubious NAR numbers) were supposedly 387,000 units, vs. 402,000 units February 2006, down 3.7%. Inventory is now at 3,748,000, vs. 2,985,000 in February 2006, up 763,000 unwanted homes, or 25.6%. And the median sales price (without cash back or incentives) in February of $212,800 is down $17,400 from the July 2006 peak.

  12. UnRealtor says:

    Thanks for including the spreadsheet JB.

    Seeing several realtor relists in there, which means the ‘Original List Price’ is much higher for several listings.

    Sad that consumers have to track all this info manually to avoid being deceived…

  13. UnRealtor says:

    Adding to post #13, an example:

    217 White Oak Ridge Rd, Short Hills

    May 2, 2006 – $939,000 (MLS 2273624)

    May 27, 2006 – $915,000

    Jun 25, 2006 – WITHDRAWN

    Jun 27, 2006 – $875,000 (MLS 2293298)

    Sep 13, 2006 – $849,900

    Oct 10, 2006 – $819,900

    Nov 1, 2006 – WITHDRAWN

    Jan 31, 2007 – $789,000 (MLS 2369613)

    Feb 06, 2007 – Attorney Review

    Feb 12, 2007 – Under Contract

    Mar 21, 2007 – Closed @ $789,000

  14. UnRealtor says:

    Oh, and realtor’s MLS system indicates ‘Days on Market’ at 14 days, when in fact it was over 300 days.

  15. Xeroxer says:

    JB, Good stuff!
    btw would you have any data on Monmouth that you’d like to share?

  16. ricky_nu says:

    JB – could you give me the address of listing number 2317707 in the March Lowball report? Thanks!

  17. ricky_nu says:

    JB – could you give me the address of MLS listing # 2317707 in your Lowball! report?

  18. Jim Koscs says:

    This is great info. I’ve been tracking Hawthorne for 8 mos. — trynig to move back there after leaving for gray Seattle 4 yrs ago. Did you track values for Feb?

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