From Bloomberg:
Housing Bubble Accomplices Preparing for Death: Caroline Baum
Each asset bubble has features and sponsors unique unto itself. Some folks went wild over tulip bulbs in 17th century Holland while others flipped over not-as- yet-constructed Florida condominiums almost four centuries later.
Yet they both — they all — share one thing in common, and it has to do with human nature. Just as terminally ill patients go through five stages of dying as described by the late psychiatrist Elisabeth Kubler-Ross in her 1969 book, “On Death and Dying,” so, too, do bubble participants experience denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.
I first used this analogy in 1999 in writing about the bubble in Internet and technology stocks. The paradigm seems equally applicable to today’s burst housing bubble.
First came denial: It isn’t a bubble. Banks don’t have any exposure to mortgages. Housing is a small sector of the economy. Subprime mortgages are a small segment of the home-loan market.
Then came the Feb. 7 double time-bomb from HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s biggest bank, and New Century Financial, the No. 2 subprime lender in the U.S., that they were setting aside more money as a cushion against rising loan delinquencies. New Century filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on April 2, one of more than 40 lenders that have ceased operations or sought buyers since the start of 2006, according to Bloomberg data.
…
Soon the anger set in. Delinquency and foreclosure rates rose. Everyone was shocked, shocked to learn there was risk in risky loans. The press bombarded us daily with tales of shady lenders preying on victimized homeowners who would soon be out on the street for non-payment of mortgage interest.No one was more upset than our elected representatives. Congress wants blood. Whose is irrelevant.
…
Let the bargaining begin. With the homeownership rate at 68.9 percent in the fourth quarter, just shy of the all-time high, the potential audience for congressional hearings and potential market for invasive action is huge.Unfortunately, Congress comes up with some really loopy ideas.
“Ideas that seemed out of the mainstream today may become mainstream in the future,” Laperriere says.
…
But hey, we still have two final stages of dying before the bubble is fully exorcised: depression and acceptance. If Congress follows through on its legislative reforms of the subprime market, the housing recession may turn into a depression. If that happens, can the rest of us find acceptance?
All eyes on the subprime shakeout..
From Reuters:
Risk of U.S. slowdown from subprime woes-Bank of Spain
The United States economy could slow more quickly than expected if the subprime mortgage crisis were to spread to other credit sectors, Bank of Spain Deputy Governor Jose Vinals said on Thursday.
Any steeper-than-expected U.S. slowdown would hit both world economic growth and financial markets, Vinals said in a speech, adding that this potential negative effect would be exaggerated by the size of global economic imbalances.
The outlook for the global economy over the next two years is likely to be moderating but growing more sustainably, Vinals said, adding that interest rates had become less accommadative in 2006.
But U.S. families and businesses would be hard hit if the trouble in the subprime market spread to other credit sectors.
“It could cause the slowdown in economic activity in the United States to be more intense than expected, with the corresponding negative impact for global economic growth and international financial markets,” he said.
LendersBestBid.com has launched a revolutionary online service that promises to shake-up the way Americans apply for mortgages.
http://www.prleap.com/pr/72748/
From Reuters:
MGIC 1st qtr net falls on losses and expenses
Mortgage insurer MGIC Investment Corp. (MTG.N: Quote, Profile , Research) said on Wednesday its first quarter profit fell 43.4 percent as losses and expenses cut into its business.
Net income fell to $92.4 million, or $1.12 per share, from $163.5 million, or $1.87 per share, in the year-ago period.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the firm to earn $1.71 a share.
…
“Deterioration in home prices … a downturn in the domestic economy or changes in our mix of business may result in more homeowners defaulting and our losses increasing,” the company said in its forward-looking statement.
MGIC is closely watched by analysts and investors because of the “meltdown” in the subprime loan market. However, MGIC, the largest of the independent mortgage insurers, has said it has limited exposure in this market for lending to the riskiest home borrowers.
From the NY Times:
As Subprime Market Implodes, a Contrarian Prospers
‘Subprime’ restructuring tough
By Sue Kirchhoff, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — As lawmakers and regulators try to help strapped homeowners with “subprime” mortgages stave off foreclosure, they face an unexpected hurdle: Wall Street.
The Federal Reserve is looking at the issue.
“We’re very concerned about keeping people in their homes,” Fed Gov. Randall Kroszner said Tuesday. “The Fed is assessing the incentives in the contracts and the structure of the contracts and how covenants and requirements vary.”
State and federal lawmakers have been seeking ways to help borrowers, including bailouts, now that 14.4% of adjustable-rate subprime loans are delinquent. Market complexity could affect efforts. For example, some mortgages assess penalties for paying off a loan early. The so-called prepayment penalties may be difficult to deal with depending on how the bond is structured.
“If the thought is that there can be a simple law passed or regulation instituted that would affect everything equally, that’s probably an unrealistic hope,” says Doug Duncan, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers, which plans a meeting of lenders, consumer groups and other parties on the issue.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2007-04-10-subprime-usat_N.htm
From the Montclair Times:
Gilt by association: Hundreds of residents appeal property revaluations
Patrizia Cioffi suspects that her home on the corner of Columbus Avenue and Grove Street was over-appraised by $75,000.
“If I could sell my house for $525,000, I would be out of here in 20 minutes,” Cioffi said with a laugh.
In the nearly 40 years that Cioffi has resided in her 1922 house, her only upgrades have been repainting its interior and exterior. She has three bedrooms and an office on the second floor, an unfinished attic and basement, no eat-in kitchen and the original bathroom.
“Why would anyone want to buy my house for $525,000 … when they could go to Gordonhurst Avenue and purchase a house with a powder room, plus five rooms on the first floor, a den, laundry room, office, recreation room and storage room for $484,000?” Cioffi asked.
She is speaking of her property revaluation from Appraisal Systems Inc. (ASI), which was contracted by Montclair to inspect its more than 10,000 properties as part of its first state-mandated property revaluation in 18 years.
From the Home News Tribune:
Constitutional convention best hope for real reform
After weeks of delay, Gov. Jon S. Corzine finally signed off last week on the Legislature’s much-ballyhooed plan for property-tax relief, supposedly the path to saving N.J. households a boatload of money. When all is said and done, unfortunately, the newest checks will hardly vary in size from those that Trenton sent out just a few years back. So what have taxpayers really gained? Not much, to be exact. Consider this, too: Just as unchecked government spending led to the crash of the first rebate program, unless costs are reined in, this latest aid for taxpayers also promises to be illusory.
…
For now, read ’em and weep: Spotswood’s proposed school-tax increase this spring is $245 for the average household; Monroe’s is at $150; New Brunswick’s school tab calls for a tax hike of $100; the figure is $139 in Edison, and Piscataway is staring at a $225 bump. Those numbers are typical for districts around the state. So if a resident of Piscataway gets back $960 — the rebate due a family with an income of $100,000 to $150,000 under the new plan — that household’s gain this year is really only $735, while town and county taxes have yet to be factored in.
Corzine has claimed that thanks to the Legislature’s plan, “Tax relief is real, credits are real, and they’re on their way.” But as anyone can see, only for a time.
…
None of the work completed by Trenton in the past year is even remotely close to being a cure for any of those ills. Any such prescription would involve replacing property taxes with some other form of government revenue — increases in the sales or income tax or both, most likely.
Timid lawmakers are deathly afraid of taking so radical a step. No, it is clear that reform’s only hope is in the hands of regular citizens, and that means a constitutional convention on property-tax reform, an idea that was considered by the Legislature but set aside on the promise that lawmakers would fix the problem themselves. They didn’t.
Let the drumbeat for a citizens’ convention begin anew.
From the Wall Street Journal:
Bankruptcy May Not Save Homes
Filing Isn’t Helping
Many Borrowers
Avoid Foreclosure
By LINGLING WEI
April 12, 2007; Page D6
More financially stretched borrowers are realizing even declaring bankruptcy can’t save their homes from foreclosure.
Take, for example, Bernice and Harlan King in Cleveland. The couple, saddled with about $30,000 in credit-card and other debts and behind on their $1,650 monthly mortgage payments, filed Chapter 13 late last year to prevent their mortgage lender from repossessing their house. Their hope was to work out a plan to catch up with the mortgage payments and repay other bills over three to five years. Now they are giving up, and their house is heading for foreclosure.
“It’s just too much trying to catch up,” said Ms. King, 48 years old, a court stenographer.
The Kings and people like them present a worrisome trend for investors in mortgage-backed bonds already spooked by soaring delinquencies and defaults on home loans to people with the weakest credit. According to a study released in March by Credit Suisse Group, more subprime borrowers are turning to bankruptcy court to stave off foreclosure, as softening housing prices make it harder for them to sell their homes to repay debts.
At the same time, the study shows, the number of borrowers who are actually able to bring current their mortgage payments through bankruptcy is declining, and more filers are ultimately turning their homes over to the lenders. The finding means investors in high-yielding mortgage-backed securities should expect higher losses on the underlying collateral.
At least part of the blame, says the report, lies with a bankruptcy law passed in 2005. The law raised the bar for people to qualify for Chapter 7 “fresh start” bankruptcy proceedings. Chapter 7 can enable individual filers to wipe away debts such as credit-card and medical bills so they can continue to make their mortgage payments. With access limited, more subprime borrowers are forced into Chapter 13, where some can’t maintain their payment schedules for more than a couple of months.
The Kings, for example, had thought about filing Chapter 7, but made too much money to pass the new bankruptcy law’s means test, said Mr. King, an airline baggage handler.
“It’s become harder to file for Chapter 7 to release debt burdens,” said Jay Guo, a director in Credit Suisse’s asset-backed securities research group in New York and the lead author of the study. “Going forward,” he added, “delinquent loans are more likely to go into foreclosure directly rather than into bankruptcy,” resulting in higher losses for mortgage-bond investors.
Do investors stuck with this high yielding crap, demand a bailout. Why not? They claim they did not know what they were buying.
Great to see tulip bulbs back in the news. I thought that topic was isolated to this blog.
Speaking of Tulip Bulbs and 1925 Fla RE;
1) Complacency
2) Concern
3) Fear
4) Panic
Why people move to NC:
http://charlotte.craigslist.org/rfs/310040238.html
I just can not comprehend how can anyone talk about 300K cape cods not even speaking of 800K cape cods in NNJ if there are houses like this one….
But this area has the best pizza and bagels. That justifies the 800k crap cod.
By the way, fresh new low in the dollar index last night.[I’m sure the subprime is concerned about this] After a seemingly bullish job report and hawkish dialogue from the fed, the dollar continues its decline. Ben, if you are vigilant against inflation, shut up and raise. The market is growing very weary of your rhetoric.
Clot,
Regarding post # 10; Where is the University City area? I wonder what prop taxes are, around 2-3k??
From MarketWatch:
Countrywide loan fundings rise, but subprime volume slide
Countrywide Financial Corp said Thursday that its loan fundings for March totaled $43 billion, an increase of 5% from March 2006. The mortgage lending giant said monthly purchase volume was $17 billion, compared to $19 billion a year-ago. The firm said subprime loan fundings fell 29% to $2.4 billion in March. “Production volume was dominated by refinance and fixed-rate loan activity,” the firm said. It added that subprime loans, “continued to decline, accounting for 5% of total mortgage loan originations for March 2007 and 7% of total mortgage loan originations for the first quarter of 2007.”
Pizza is decent in NJ, but Chinese food – wow it was a big disappointment moving to NJ – all those small places are cr5p.
As far as dollar is falling – FED will do nothing to stop inflation – US need to devalue dollar as much s possible before china/India/middle east will realize what’s going on and start dumping US securities.
If we can have 300% (total) inflation for example over 10 year period our national debt will be effectively slashed to about 1/4 of what it is right now….
Interestingly enough it takes only about 11% inflation over 10 years to devalue dollar by 3 times. 15% to devalue dollar 4 times. The real problem is how do you avoid hyperinflation – and the reality is by lying about real inflation figures, overstating employment figures, and orchestrating bubbles.
“US need to devalue dollar as much s possible before china/India/middle east will realize what’s going on and start dumping US securities.”
Al,
Believe me, the group has a handle on it. They are slowly moving out/on. It is not in their best interest to dump our securities. However, they are dumping in their own measured/methodical
manner…………and it will continue.
Link to above Wall Street Journal article via MarketWatch:
Bankruptcy May Not Save Homes
Weak dollar manifesting itself as import inflation.. From Bloomberg:
U.S. Import Prices Rise 1.7%; Increase 0.3% Excluding Oil
Prices of goods imported into the U.S. rose more than twice as much as forecast in March, led by increases in oil and natural gas.
The 1.7 percent increase in the import price index was the largest in 10 months and followed a revised 0.1 percent gain in February, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Excluding petroleum, the cost of goods shipped to the U.S. rose 0.3 percent.
Rising prices for energy and other imported goods may boost broader measures of inflation, Federal Reserve officials said at last month’s policy meeting. Officials also said it might “prove necessary” to raise interest rates, according to minutes of the meeting.
“The Fed is increasingly worried about the pass-through of higher import prices into general inflation,” Michael Gregory, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, said before the report. “To the extent that companies can pass on higher prices, they are.”
Economists forecast import prices to rise 0.8 percent, after a previously reported 0.2 percent increase the prior month, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg News survey.
From MarketWatch:
Emergency funds proposed for subprime crisis
Lawmakers seek ‘hundreds of millions of dollars’ to head off foreclosures
…
The federal government should increase aid to nonprofit groups, strengthen rules on mortgage origination, create an antipredatory-lending law banning unfair and deceptive practices and take other steps to tackle the crisis in subprime-mortgage lending, a congressional study said Wednesday.
What was once the American dream of homeownership, according to Joint Economic Committee Chairman Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., has “now become the un-American nightmare.”
The crisis is particularly acute in Midwestern states like Illinois and Ohio, and states in the South and West like California, Colorado, Florida and Georgia, the report indicated.
Joined at a Capitol Hill press conference with Sens. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., and Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, Schumer said that he and others would be proposing that “hundreds of millions of dollars” in federal money be funneled to community-based groups to help borrowers head off foreclosures.
“We’d like to do something very quickly,” Schumer added.
(Emphasis added)
Much more at the link above, Rich
article # 19 is very depressing for those who went about life correctly.
“Do you wonder what your tax dollars buy? As the deadline for filing federal income taxes rolls around again this year, you may well wonder where those hard-earned bucks you’ve forked over to Uncle Sam actually go. The answer might surprise you.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/taxes/article/102817/How-Your-Tax-Dollars-Are-Spent
A “hundreds of millions of dollars” bailout won’t make a dent, sorry. A bailout that would have a material impact on the market would likely reach into the billions.
How many NJ mortgages can you refinance with $100,000,000?
In 2006, the median home price was $362,900. Lets assume that people put at least some money down, even though we know this isn’t the case. So let’s use $300,000 for our average loan balance statewide (just a hypothetical here).
$100,000,000/$300,000 = 333 refinance loans
In February, NJ saw 4,448 foreclosures:
http://www.nj.com/business/ledger/index.ssf?/base/business-6/11762707949960.xml&coll=1
In February, New Jersey rang up 4,448 foreclosures in a single month, up nearly 36 percent from the same time last year, according to Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac, another company that tracks foreclosed properties.
Let’s just bring that average loan balance down near $200,000, and lets just say we want to bail out 50% of these foreclosures.
$200,000*2,200= $440,000,000
We would need more than $400 million dollars just to try to bail out half of a single months worth of foreclosures in NJ.
jb
I’ve got a great idea!
Let’s use the state pension funds to bail out all of these foreclosed subprime loans. Those state funds would get a rather attractive yield, and we’d be using those funds to help NJ residents. It’s a win-win for everyone.
jb
(runs, hides)
CNN Article:
http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/09/real_estate/buyer_strategies.moneymag/index.htm?postversion=2007041208
Buyers in charge: 4 strategies
“Wield your power If you see a house you like, chances are you can find another one that is similar. Exploit that advantage. Make demands you never would have dared ask for in crazier times, such as requiring the seller to make repairs or the builder to throw in free upgrades.
Sellers may be trying to make what their neighbors made two years ago, but they’re too late, says broker Marrs.
Don’t be afraid to start with an offer that’s 15 percent below asking price. “
From Reuters via the Washington Post:
Countrywide mortgages in foreclosure nearly double
Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC.N), the largest U.S. mortgage lender, said on Thursday the amount of mortgages in its portfolio that are in foreclosure nearly doubled, amid a difficult U.S. housing market.
The Calabasas, California-based company said the rate of pending foreclosures, as a percentage of unpaid principal balances, rose to 0.83 percent in March from 0.44 percent a year earlier and 0.80 percent in February.
Countrywide said the March foreclosure rate, measured by the number of loans serviced, was 0.69 percent, up from 0.47 percent a year earlier but down from February’s 0.70 percent.
The delinquency rate rose to 4.29 percent in March from 3.68 percent a year earlier but fell from February’s 4.71 percent. Countrywide’s servicing portfolio grew 17 percent from a year earlier to $1.35 trillion.
…
Last month, the Mortgage Bankers Association said the foreclosure rate industrywide was 0.54 percent in the fourth quarter, the highest it had measured in 37 years of surveys.
I just heard from a friend. They bid 10% lower than Feb comps. After couple of days, the seller came back at 8% discount.
James Bednar Says:
April 12th, 2007 at 9:48 am
I’ve got a great idea!
Let’s use the state pension funds to bail out all of these foreclosed subprime loans. Those state funds would get a rather attractive yield, and we’d be using those funds to help NJ residents. It’s a win-win for everyone.
jb
(runs, hides)
You Better hide well…… You do now that Governer reads your blog, do you??
When this will happen, all state unions will be after you…..
#23, Grim, WHAT state pension funds?! *lol*
Oh, yes, as I’m on vacation in Fort Lauderdale this week, I decided to check realtor dot com to see what was available- this was after our Water Taxi tour of Million Row … only 18,094 listings as of yesterday down here!
From Reuters:
Derivatives markets may hold key to U.S. recession
Relaxed lending standards may have contributed to a surge in U.S. mortgage failures this year, but the chance of recession could hang on the complex derivatives used to hedge loan risk, analysts say.
Collateralised Debt Obligations (CDOs) are baskets of bonds that give investors varying levels of exposure to defaults. CDOs helped fuel the U.S. housing boom by purchasing bonds backed by sub-prime mortgages and distributing the risk.
“In the old days banks would hang on to loans and have an interest in ensuring credit worthiness,” said Albert Edwards, global strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort. “The ability to offload risk through CDOs has led to incredibly loose lending standards in the mortgage industry.”
jb # 25
The reason why delinquency rate in March is lower than Feb may be due to the lesser number of ARM resets scheduled for March 2007.
https://njrereport.com/images/armresets.gif
Anybody near CNBC? I see they are discussing the subprime bailout.
THat house in NC, looks like it was built in 1 week. I would take a NJ Cape built 50 years ago over any of that new construction. Just my opinion. But I am also Moving out of this State so I dont have to worry about this…Just 2 more years baby and me and the wife and kid are out of here.
OT
Google to Open Poland Operations Center
Hi guys, one comment about the rent vs. own calculations. One factor that I haven’t seen mentioned is the fact that many of us may not have much time to lose to start buying. I know it sounds like despicable Realtor spin, but isn’t it true that you pay most of the principal during the last 7 years of a 30-fixed? If I’m 40, I would need to start now so that I don’t approach retirement age having spent 23 years paying mostly interest and with nothing (except the volatile “appreciation” of the house) in my hands. Otherwise the plan would be to be always a renter, which of course may have merit. Other thing that puzzles me (and maybe I’m just uber-cautious and foreign born) is that most people don’t look forward to live in the same property and pay it off, taking advantage of the fact that 400K of 2007 are a light burden by 2037, but rather think of schemes to refinance and move up to increasingly more expensive houses, which has them again resetting to the first years of the mortgage payment (meaning paying interest rather than principal) although living large, too. I guess the plan is to go big while the family grows and go back to small when the kids move out. Still, I think I would like to see myself with something paid off when I’m 65 or 70, at most. Any comments? Am I missing many pieces of the puzzle?
This article is on Frontpage USA Today
Rising foreclosures reshaping communities
By Noelle Knox, USA TODAY
ATLANTA — If you’re like most homeowners, you’ve probably never given much thought to whether your neighbors pay their mortgages on time. You’ve got enough to worry about.
Dannice Clark was like that. She’d skip newspaper articles about the trouble with “subprime” loans for people with risky credit. While fixing dinner, she’d tune out TV reports on how subprime defaults are accelerating the nationwide pace of foreclosures. Why should she care? She had a fixed-rate loan on a 5,000-square-foot home with two kitchens in Waters Edge, an upscale subdivision in Stone Mountain, just outside Atlanta.
Here’s why: Clark has been trying to sell her home for nearly five months and hasn’t had one offer — even after cutting the price to $334,900 from $359,000. The problem is that her street is dotted with four foreclosed homes that lenders are trying to unload for less money.
“It’s truly affecting the sale of my house,” says Clark, 45, who works for the U.S. Postal Service. “Why pay full price for my house when you can pick up a foreclosure for $30,000 or $40,000 less?”
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2007-04-12-foreclose-cover-usat_N.htm
You Better hide well…… You do now that Governer reads your blog, do you??
When this will happen, all state unions will be after you…..
Hey why not? And, if borrowers default on their new state pension fund backed mortgage, the state can just pay retirees in foreclosed POS starter capes!
On the 1st and 15th of every month, union members would get a deed to a new home and a bill for the past due property taxes.
OT:
Are there any good furniture stores in this area? Something like a Nebraska Furniture Mart would be sooo cool, but I can lower my expectations ;-)
Thanks
Marito: Looking at history, most housing correction has happened in max 3 to 5 years. After that it is long drawn flat prices for many years. If you didn’t buy in 2005, you at least saved 20%, and that is huge. We are already 2 year in this downturn, another 2 more years and we may go into the flat zone. After that, I don’t see any issues in buying. You want to just wait out catching falling knife.
#35 Marito: NOrmally that would be the case, have soemthing paid off by the time you retire. The only problem is what will property taxes look like lets sya 20 years from now.
What good is having a apid off hosue if your property taxes 20 years out could very well be 20K to 30K a year or more, on an every day house.
You “own” it, but yet you are still paying.
THat house in NC, looks like it was built in 1 week. I would take a NJ Cape built 50 years ago over any of that new construction.
Tim,
For $150k you could just buy another one! LOL
In all seriousness, the 50 year old NJ cape was probably of higher quality construction when it was built. On the other hand, is it really worth 3 times as much? After all, 50 year old good construction is still 50 year old construction.
/iRentinginNJ Says:
April 12th, 2007 at 10:34 am
You Better hide well…… You do now that Governer reads your blog, do you??
When this will happen, all state unions will be after you…..
Hey why not? And, if borrowers default on their new state pension fund backed mortgage, the state can just pay retirees in foreclosed POS starter capes!
On the 1st and 15th of every month, union members would get a deed to a new home and a bill for the past due property taxes
I like this idea – this way taxes which are collected to pay unions will be collected from unions
Wow
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18062310/
I did not realize that in NJ 1.2% homes are Foreclosures as % of total household – that means one in 100 houses……
Does not it seems a bit too high???,
IN colorado – it is 3%… 1 in 30 houses or in average one house in 3 blocks…..
I hope there is something wrong with this statistic… even 1% of TOTAL househols are too high.
TO Post # 35…
I have similar thoughts – house purchasing is an incredibly good Decision IF you can stay in your house for 30 years…..
However average american family moving every 7 years. Average american family under 40 years old moving every 4-5 years.
Can you guarantee your job being around in 10 yars…. 20 years… 30 years…????
IN addition buying a home which will suit you for 30 years is kind of hard – when you 40 you have had kids already and you know the size of your family. For Younger people it is hard – and younger people can not even afford a starter home, not even speaking final – nicer home.
I can’t tell you how many 2-3 kida families crowded into little cape cods I saw in my search for started home.
They are visible crowded – there is no space to walk in their homes.
However they all want huge amounts of money for their starter homes because it is the only way they can afford to move up.
So yes if you can buy a house and stay in it for 30 years it is worse it even now.
However most young professionals are moving for job quite often.
IN addition why would you pay 23 years almost all interest – check the mortgage calculator – I believe by 20th years you’d pay off almost 50% of original loan. In addition what stops you from paying aditional principal payments – ohh wait the house was too expensive to begin with.
You see it is all coming down to too high priced homes – it is better save money by renting and put more money down later on.
Al,
The question you’re asking seems to boil down to this:
What will the economic impact of a less mobile society be?
jb
Why must realtors lie? And why must “journalists” let such lies go unchallenged?
I disagree – society can nto be less mobile – if I do not have a job to buy me food – what good would a house do ??
How can I afford ANY payments without a job??
wellfare can only work as long as enough of population works…. If nobody works because they did not follow the jobs well.. you get the idea.
If gasoline really will become scarse it will be even worse – society would have to become either very mobile or jobs would have to be fixed…
So far Job creation is not linked to presence of the workforce – it is linked to the costs of doing buisness/opportunities present.
The reason Fed keep talking about raising interest rate to keep inflation low, has to do with the theory of “inflation expectations”. All this talk keeps expectations low, which eventually keeps inflation low. Chances are less that talk will actually turn to action. Also, if Fed really wants China to bump up Yuan 20-30% overnight like they keep asking all the time, they must be prepared for a much higher inflation pressure, Something around 6-10%. I am sure they have thought about it..
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/102774/Sellers-Should-Run-from-These-Home-Buyers
This may win the award for Most Useless Article of the Year.
“Sellers Should Run From These Home Buyers”
1. Zero-Percent Down Buyer
2. The Bully Buyer (i.e. those who will demand an inspection prior to closing)
3. The Sight-Unseen Buyer
Based on what we have been hearing from Clot and KL, that leaves… no one?
WSJ
Sell Signal: When Boss Buys Trophy Home
By JUDITH BURNS
April 12, 2007; Page D6
WASHINGTON — When the boss buys a trophy home, investors would do well to sell shares in the company, according to a new study of stock performance of Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index firms following home purchases by chief executives.
Call it the mansion effect: The bigger the CEO’s home is, the worse the company’s stock fares, the study by Arizona State University finance Professor Crocker Liu and New York University finance Professor David Yermack found.
Investors who short shares of companies after the CEO has moved into a palatial home would reap returns of 29% after one year, and 46% after two years, the study estimates. The authors calculated hypothetical gains based on short sales, a trading strategy in which shares are borrowed and sold in hopes of replacing borrowed shares later at a lower price.
Executives who pay for large homes by selling company stock or exercising stock options are another bearish sign. The study found shares in those companies underperformed market benchmarks for several years, while those funded without stock sales held up.
Since executives’ stock sales to finance a home purchase are tiny relative to overall trading, the authors say the resulting stock-price slump may signal that top executives have become lazy, entrenched and entitled. Alternatively, the authors speculate that imperial CEOs may demoralize other executives and employees, dragging down overall corporate performance. Insider trading can’t be ruled out, as the authors warned that some CEOs may use a home purchase as “pretext” when their real motive is to dump shares based on nonpublic information about the firm. Mr. Yermack said that researchers want to do further study of stock trades that looked “really suspicious.”
When it comes to homes, the researchers discovered that CEOs typically live large. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chief Executive Warren Buffett still lives in the Omaha, Neb., home he bought for $31,000 in 1958, but it’s far more common for top executives to trade up and spend millions of dollars on homes.
However, “the typical CEO is not acting like the pig at the trough,” said Mr. Yermack. “Most of them live in houses that are smaller and less opulent than I would have thought.”
The typical home in the study was a single-family residence with 11 rooms, 4.5 bathrooms and more than 5,600 square feet. With a $2.7 million market value, the median home price for CEOs in the study was 10 times as high as the $274,500 median sales price for all homes sold in the U.S. Outdoor swimming pools, tennis courts, boathouses, formal gardens, and detached guest houses or servants’ quarters are common, and one CEO’s spread featured a private polo field and equestrian ring. About 12% were waterfront properties and 8.5% were located on or next to a golf course.
About 44% of the homes in the study were funded through mortgages, and 27% were paid for by executives selling shares of company stock and exercising stock options. The average mortgage was $828,000, with about half of the executives using an adjustable-rate mortgage, compared with 23% of the overall population.
The study covers 488 homes of executives at S&P 500 firms in 2004 and those firms’ stock-market performance in 2005. For CEOs with multiple homes, the authors focused on residences close to work.
“All this talk keeps expectations low, which eventually keeps inflation low.”
MJ [48]
What? I’m in left field without a glove. Can you expalin this theory to me?
explain.
Citigroup,Bank of America to aid subprime victims
Thu Apr 12, 2007 1:14AM EDT
By Jonathan Stempel
NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) – Citigroup Inc. (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) will provide $1 billion of mortgage financing to help about 7,000 victims of abusive lending practices avoid losing their homes, an advocacy group said on Wednesday.
The largest U.S. banks confirmed they are working with the Neighborhood Assistance Corp. of America, which said it is trying to help subprime borrowers who face possible foreclosure because rates are rising on their loans.
http://www.reuters.com/article/bankingfinancial-SP/idUSN1126073220070412
I’m really starting to see inventory hitting the market at a good pace. The wave of inventory started late, but it’s certainly picking up pace quickly.
This past week we saw one of the biggest 1 week increases in inventory this year:
GSMLS
(Ber,Ess,Hud,Mor,Pas,Som,Sus,Uni,War)
4/12/06 – 14,812
4/5/07 – 17,485
4/12/07 – 17,905 (2.4% weekly increase).
NJMLS
(Ber,Ess,Hud,Pas)
4/12/06 – 7,259
4/5/07 – 8,129
4/12/07 – 8,373 (3.0% weekly increase).
jb
JB,
do you know where we were last year at this time with inventory?
First set of numbers in my inventory post right above.
North Jersey inventory is running roughly 20% higher on GSMLS and 15% on NJMLS.
jb
Where will the money come from?
Education advocates sue state to force building projects
An advocacy group has asked the state Supreme Court to force New Jersey to find more money to build new schools and fix up old ones in the state’s poorest cities.
The motion filed Thursday on behalf of low-income students by the Education Law Center is the latest move in a decades-long struggle between advocates for children and the state government over what the nation’s wealthiest state should do about the schools in its impoverished cities.
Under an order from the court in 2001, the state set aside $6 billion for construction projects in 31 cities. But because of waste and rising construction costs, the money did not go as far as expected.
The state’s Schools Construction Corp. put some 300 planned projects on hold — including nearly 100 in the design phase — so that 59 projects could move ahead.
But the agency’s top official said this week that some of the remaining projects would have to be deferred until the Legislature allocated more money for the building.
Better sell those toll roads
First set of numbers in my inventory post right above.
Sorry JB. I’m still walking around in a fog. A 1 week old will do that to you. Who needs sleep anyway.
HOw about better sell off ALL roads including the local ones in residential areas…. Is average housing lot costs 150K the roads which lead to the houses would cost atleast a million – if private company own the only road leading out of the development – they would be able to charge you entrance and exit fee…..
Rich In NNJ Says:
April 12th, 2007 at 8:53 am
Link to above Wall Street Journal article via MarketWatch:
Rich that Bankruptcy Reform Act was the most despicable act a congress has ever passed. They might as well call it the Bank-Written Bankruptcy Reform Act. I am a pretty conservative guy but that thing was right out of the Robber Baron ages.
Rich In NNJ Says:
Rich that Bankruptcy Reform Act was the most despicable act a congress has ever passed. They might as well call it the Bank-Written Bankruptcy Reform Act. I am a pretty conservative guy but that thing was right out of the Robber Baron ages.
“In the fourth quarter of 2006, 84% of borrowers who refinanced their prime conventional loans increased their loan balance by more than 5%, totaling more than $70 billion in equity extracted. We expect similar numbers for the first quarter of this year,” Nothaft said.
“Interest rates in general ticked up following the release of the March employment data, which showed stronger job growth than what the market expected,” Nothaft said.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-mortgage-rates-move-up/story.aspx?guid=%7BD981D227%2D5E42%2D42AE%2DAB70%2D286D427E691A%7D
Mortgage brokers better watch out!
From the Office of the Massachusetts Attorney General:
ATTORNEY GENERAL COAKLEY FILES LAWSUITS AGAINST INDIVIDUALS AND BUSINESSES INVOLVED IN FORECLOSURE RESCUE AND MORTGAGE FRAUD RING
Yesterday, Attorney General Martha Coakley’s Office requested a judge to issue preliminary injunctions against nineteen individuals and companies, allegedly involved in mortgage fraud and a foreclosure rescue scheme, to stop them from unfair and deceptive business practices. These individuals were named in two separate lawsuits that AG Coakley’s Office filed on March 30th in Suffolk Superior Court as part of a continued effort to uncover predatory conduct in mortgage brokering and lending in the Commonwealth.
From CNBC:
Bailout or Buzz Off?
Bravo, to all of you for writing in (see below to read some of the emails), and may I just say that perhaps the politicians should be reading this, because if they think a government bailout would be popular, they’d better think again. We got about 57 emails to the realty check site in the hour after I did the bailout piece on TV, and I can’t find even one post that supports a bailout.
“No Bailouts. The idea is insane! People must be allowed to feel the consequences of their decisions. They are house gamblers just like Las Vegas gamblers. They lost, so be it,” says John in Wisconsin.
…
“I commend the government for making an effort to help borrowers. However this is not a government issue, it’s a predatory lending issue. Government should be taking damages from companies who knowingly took advantage of the ignorance of American families. Their actions were unconscionable,” writes Dana.
…
As a reporter, it’s not my place to say what the government should or should not do, but also as a reporter I’ve spoken with more borrowers than the average person out there, and the bulk of them say they just didn’t read the paperwork or they just expected the market to continue to rise, so they figured they’d take the risk and refinance later. Yes, predatory lending certainly exists, and yes, lenders were more willing to give money away than ever before. And yes again, the big Wall Street Banks had a hand in it. Congress should look at lending standards and go after those lenders who crossed the line. But it was a two-way street during the housing boom, just like during the dot.com boom. I covered the boom and I saw it all, from auctions where investors were gobbling up several properties at a time, to open houses with bidding wars on the front porch. I also remember saying over and over again that this kind of price appreciation was unsustainable. And by the way, I don’t remember the government bailing out the dot.coms.
scribe Says:
Citigroup,Bank of America to aid subprime victims
A projected 2 million subprime borrowers will lose their homes to foreclosure by the end of this year, according to the Center for Responsible Lending. And that estimate was made late last year, before tougher lending rules began shutting out some homeowners, who might be unable to refinance once their ARMs reset to higher rates.
Citibank sending help to 7,000 bagholders is like me sending $20.00 to the Red Cross after Katrina
CNBC… Power Lunch talking about (Bailing out Borrowers) up next!
ON Now
Does anyone have any data or thoughts/ideas regarding the following:
If there is a recession, corporate America will look to cut costs. Possibly they will look to relocate to cheaper digs.
Will renters be in a better position to move with companies? You would think so.
This maybe the first time in history that middle -upper middle income families have been “priced out” of homes, esp on the Coasts. Correct me if I am wrong.
Given that mobility will be more important than ever, renters will have a true advantage.
At best, homeowners will be selling their homes on the Coasts for a cut to try and save their incomes.
How likely is this scenario?
afe
[65],
Kudos to Diana Olick.
“Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chief Executive Warren Buffett still lives in the Omaha, Neb., home he bought for $31,000 in 1958…”
Well, that’s just silly. You only live once, no sense being a billionaire and living in a POS cape. He should at least upgrade to a POS colonial.
That snippet is unfair, Buffett owned a multimillion dollar beachfront home in Laguna Beach, CA.
Of course, he sold that home for $3.5m at the peak of the market in 2005 (after buying for it for $1m at the bottom of the market in 1996).
jb
Let’s get to the real news…..
http://www.nypost.com/seven/04122007/news/regionalnews/attack_of_the_killer_lesbians_regionalnews_laura_italiano.htm
Bailouts?? Someome should go after this guy.
“Jim Moore, a mortgage broker in Grand Rapids, Michigan who also writes about mortgages for Miamibeach411.com, said he recently completed a $3 million refinance on a second home for a borrower who was out of work. “This wasn’t even a no-documentation loan,” says Moore. “This was a no-income loan, and the lender knew it.”
http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/10/real_estate/alta_alive.moneymag/index.htm?postversion=2007041017
“Option ARMs remain an option. Despite problems in the mortgage market, brokers say lenders are still willing to make risky loans – including those that allow borrowers to make monthly payments that don’t even cover the interest (so-called “option ARMs”).”
I’m surprised that there haven’t been any comments on MGIC. This was one of the most important pieces of news today.
Realize that MGIC isn’t a subprime lender, they are a mortgage insurer.
Link above..
Mortgage insurer MGIC Investment Corp. said on Wednesday its first quarter profit fell 43.4 percent as losses and expenses cut into its business.
…
MGIC is closely watched by analysts and investors because of the “meltdown” in the subprime loan market. However, MGIC, the largest of the independent mortgage insurers, has said it has limited exposure in this market for lending to the riskiest home borrowers.
This is a clear indication that lending problems are not confined to subprime.
jb
#72, JB
This is what Buffett and Munger had to say in May 2005 Berkshire annual meeting:
“Buffett: “A lot of the psychological well being of the American public comes from how well they’ve done with their house over the years. If indeed there’s been a bubble, and it’s pricked at some point, the net effect on Berkshire might well be positive [because the company’s financial strength would allow it to buy real-estate-related businesses at bargain prices]….
“Certainly at the high end of the real estate market in some areas, you’ve seen extraordinary movement…. People go crazy in economics periodically, in all kinds of ways. Residential housing has different behavioral characteristics, simply because people live there. But when you get prices increasing faster than the underlying costs, sometimes there can be pretty serious consequences.”
Munger: “You have a real asset-price bubble in places like parts of California and the suburbs of Washington, D.C.”
Buffett: “I recently sold a house in Laguna for $3.5 million. It was on about 2,000 square feet of land, maybe a twentieth of an acre, and the house might cost about $500,000 if you wanted to replace it. So the land sold for something like $60 million an acre.”
Munger: “I know someone who lives next door to what you would actually call a fairly modest house that just sold for $17 million. There are some very extreme housing price bubbles going on.”
More on MGIC from Seeking Alpha:
http://financial.seekingalpha.com/article/32068
JB,
It’s my experience that mortgage insurers don’t do sub-prime. They are considered self insured by the banks/bondholders. I looked at the MGIC rate finder page and confirmed this. They only do down to A-, which is not considered sub-prime yet. 580 is the minimum fico.
This means that MGIC’s exposure to sub-prime is zero. All these losses stem from mortgage business above sub-prime.
If anyone’s bored you can see the MGIC rate quotes here
http://www.mgic.com/is/html/ratefinder_a.html
grim #73
Do you guys know how exactly do they cook the books on this? I’m posting from CNN:
“The National Association of Realtors said Wednesday it expects its measure of home prices to fall this year for the first time since the group began keeping track nearly 40 years ago.
In its latest monthly forecast, the real estate group said it expects a 0.7 percent decline in the median price of an existing home sold in 2007. A month ago it had been projecting a 1.2 percent increase. Half of all homes sell for more than the median and half for less.”
How come they didn’t register a decline during the last slump, if prices fell at least 10% then? And what about since 2005? There’s been an obvious decline (or are the Northeast, FL, CA, NV, MI, OH etc. being offset by gains somewhere else?) I know they cannot blatantly alter numbers a la Saddam’s reelection poll, so they have to be spinning some kind of real numbers. Anybody has any ideas?
This means that MGIC’s exposure to sub-prime is zero. All these losses stem from mortgage business above sub-prime.
My money is on Alt-A option arms.
jb
$164 billion? Now it’s starting to sound like the S&L bailout.
Consumer groups call for bankruptcy fix
Consumer groups called Thursday for Congress to enact bankruptcy-law reform to save the homes of borrowers drowning in the rising tide of subprime mortgage foreclosures and stem the loss up to $164 billion in home-based wealth.
James Bednar Says:
My money is on Alt-A option arms.
Especially those with stated income. They couldn’t even actually qualify for the loan at the teaser rate
OT: Any suggestions for a phone from Verizon Wireless? I just lost mine. Requirements:
(1) No cost – I have up to $150 credit
(2) No web-crackberry-video-photo-iPod nonsense needed
(3) Should not be able to be crushed with bare hand
#84
We just got our daughter the LG VX8300. Although it is a camera/video/vcast phone, it is solid (will last through the many times she will drop it), great reception, loud ring (very important when trying to reach a teen), good speaker phone (I can hear it as she walks through the house talking to her friends).
Check out http://www.phonescoop.com for reviews. This site definitely helped when I was buying my last phone and it’s great (although no longer available).
#85
I just want to add that we went for the best phone and the camera/video/vcast just happened to be on this phone.
Ive had the vx8300 for about a year, and I havent had any problems with it. Its also not too large, yet very solid (its been dropped numerous times with no problems). I highly recommend it.
Holy cow Heebner.. From Bloomberg:
CGM’s Heebner Says U.S. Home Prices May Fall 20% Amid Bad Loans
Kenneth Heebner, manager of the top-performing real-estate fund over the past decade, said U.S. home prices may plunge as much as 20 percent because of rising defaults on riskier mortgages.
Subprime loans, made to borrowers with a history of missed payments or untested credit, and “Alt-A” loans, which require little or no documentation, account for about $2.5 trillion of the $10 trillion in outstanding mortgages, according to Moody’s Economy.com. As much as 40 percent of these loans may default, flooding the real estate market, Heebner said.
“It will be the biggest housing-price decline since the Great Depression,” Heebner, 66, said today in an interview in Boston. Prices may fall by a fifth in many markets, he said.
…
Heebner, who co-founded Capital Growth Management in 1990, manages the $1.6 billion CGM Realty Fund. The fund has gained an average of 20 percent a year in the past 10 years, the most of any real-estate fund over that period, according to Morningstar Inc. in Chicago.
Chifi,
If you lost your phone and use the credit for a new phone, you will be made to sign a new contract. I would suggest buying the phone you want from eBay and call Cr@pizon to activate it with your existing phone number; you avoid being tied into a fresh contract.
I did that when my wife lost her cell last year.
#89, dreamtheaterr:
I’ll admit that I never understood the extreme aversion people have to cell phone contracts (with the caveat that you have no intentions of moving physically to a different area and you have been happy with your service from your current provider).
After having experienced call quality in the NY Metro area with all the major providers, I see no reason to switch from Verizon. Also, mch of the time, getting a new contract also gets you a better plan for the same cost.
Besides, he’d have to *pay* for a new phone instead of using his free credit. It’s basically like paying insurance up front to not pay a potential $175 ETF later. Unless you’re planning on switching, that seems like a waste of money.
I’ve had a motorola v325 for just over a year (it was new when i got it in january 06). now they’re up to the v325i. i didnt want anything fancy.. just a good phone. i have zero complaints… and the outside is covered in rubber so it bounces when you drop it. it has a camera and some other bells and whistles, but i never use that stuff.
“It will be the biggest housing-price decline since the Great Depression,”
[88],
Your choice; listen to Ken Heebner or the NAR.
1) Biggest decline since the Great Depression
2) Negative savings rate; worst since the Great Depression
3) Debt/income; worst since the Great Depression
There has certainly been a wide array of Great Depression comparisons recently.
On another note…..
in my hunt for a rental in NJ I stumbled across one from a management services company on Craigslist. The guy refused to send me any pics and basically insinuated that they were doing me a favor to show me the property as they had dozens of people looking. The classic was he told me that if I waited, then the rent would go up, as rent always goes up when the property gets closer to being vacant and available…
huh? oh please. These management companies are almost as bad as porky pie telling realtors.
I hate contracts. period.
You can never be sure of the coverage when you move. Every location has a specific carrier who has the best signal strength/coverage and you as a consumer should have a choice who to pick when and where.
I am right now stuck in a contract with t-mobile and their coverage in somerset county is really bad.
Anyhow, there is a website celltradeusa.com which allows you trade your current contract with someone else’s – so you don’t have to pay for breaking the contract.
everyone – thank you
yawn
Whatever you do don’t get a Razr, the battery life stinks and the phone does some really quirky stuff. No messages going through, no dial out, calls dropped with full bars. I have never had any problems with verizon until I picked up this phone.
Chi,
BUY MOTOROLA!!!
Any model.
Please.
Think of the children…
Yea, don’t buy a RAZR.
Get a KRZR!!!!!
A little help here people.
The RAZR sucks. Looks pretty, but awkward to hold, can’t open with one hand, falls out of holster onto the floor every day (nice on concrete).
OT: one of the best baseball highlights ever….
from 1991
http://www.oregonlive.com/sports/oregonian/video/index.ssf?SP_11BLOO113
BC (13)-
Not the best part of Charlotte…you want to be on the other side of town, preferably Myers Park. UNCC is a big, pavement/concrete commuter day school.
Taxes you quoted sound about right for that price & area.
#84
I’ve got the LG VX9900, love the phone. I used to always get flip phones but this phone is great. LG in general makes great phones in my opinion. They are very durable, long battery life, and get great reception.
BC (16)-
Oh so right. In Chinese, asset diversification= dump.
So what if the dumping is slow and methodical?
Watch the dollar index and the 10 yr. Tells you everything you need to know.
Bedtime (Bathroom?) reading, from the Senate website:
Sheltering Neighborhoods from the Subprime Foreclosure Storm
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
Senator Charles E. Schumer (D-NY) – Chairman
Grim (23)-
Let’s make you the manager of that fund. What kinda yield do you think you can squeeze out of that rotting corpse?
#92 BC Bob Your choic listen to Heebner, the NAR, or Richard.
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-Delinquency0704-sort.html
updated
#90, there are a glut of barely used cell phones out there. Thank the ‘I got to have the latest’ crowd for that. They buy a cell (retail $300) for $50 from say Verizon and sign a contract. After a few months, they want the latest phone again. Guess what – that $300 phone they got for $50 is on eBay for $50 or less.
My logic was – buy the phone for $50 from fleaBay, and avoid the 2 year contract, even though you have a $150 credit at Verizon.
I think CF should get a Dolce and Gabanna Gold Razr.
Why?
It’ll look FABULOUS in the back pocket of his $300 jeans.
jb
(had to do it, sorry)
From MarketWatch:
Senate bill would tighten rules on Fannie, Freddie
Mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would fall under tougher supervision under a Senate bill introduced Thursday, a day after the companies’ federal regulator said both government-sponsored enterprises remain a supervisory concern.
Introduced by four Republican members of the Senate Banking Committee, the bill would create a new regulator for both companies with expanded powers including the authority to close them down in the event of a financial crisis.
Also from MarketWatch:
Housing woes crimp retailers’ furnishings sales
The sluggish U.S. housing market is claiming another victim: home furnishings and décor sales at the top chain stores.
On Thursday, in tandem with their release of monthly sales results, a number of retailers, ranging from Federated Department Stores to Tuesday Morning, said sales of furniture, bedding and even knickknacks were weak. See full story.
Fingers are pointing at the economic data, which have recently shown marked declines in housing starts, slowing existing-home sales and the main Realtors trade group’s first-ever forecast of an annual housing-price decline on a national scale.
“The weak sales in home furnishings is directly linked to the housing market,” said Mike Niemira, chief economist for the International Council of Shopping Centers.
Grim (88)-
Heebner’s number is the same as Bill Gross’.
Yikes.
Clotpoll Says:
April 12th, 2007 at 3:16 pm
Oh so right. In Chinese, asset diversification= dump.
clot: did I ever mention this story….it was in one of those Somerset weekly papers circa 1998. A couple of Chinese gentlemen were driving down 287 one weekday morning when a deer jumped onto the pavement and they hit it. It was roughly around the Harter Road exit. The deer was mortally wounded. Anyway, one of the rubberneckers noticed that the men took the carcass and loaded it into the trunk of the car. Thinking it odd, he decided to follow the car. The drove down to around Exit 13-14…28/Somerville whatever, exited and then drove into the parking lot of a Chinese Restaurant. The men took the carcass and carried it into the kitchen via the back entrance. At that point the rubbernecker called the cops and the health department, and these guys got busted and in the paper.
Bon appetite!
Grim (111)-
Plywood is an excellent, durable and inexpensive window treatment.
Has your broker taught you the “plywood close” technique? It’s a classic…straight outa Glengarry Glen Ross.
James Bednar Says:
April 12th, 2007 at 3:33 pm
It’ll look FABULOUS in the back pocket of his $300 jeans. jb (had to do it, sorry)
grim: you were already on the kielbasa list until further notice; now you are on double-secret probation
ChiFi (113)-
Yeah, I do remember that. Also, The Frenchtown Inn got popped a few years ago for serving some local “wild game” at a special dinner.
Nothing’s like the extra texture buckshot gives to meat.
Q: Any suggestions for brunch in the Lambertville/Frenchtown/New Hope area. One of my clients said this……
http://www.blackbasshotel.com
is there better?
Pat?
Phone – I am definitely going with the VX8300 or the V325i – just have to parse the data
Some good reading:
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf
LG?!
LG makes washing machines.
Moto V325i !!! Do it!!!
Please.
We NEED the money.
I could be laid off ANY day.
I’ve a child on the way.
Damn it man! Have you no heart!
ChiFi (117)
My suggestion would be Triumph Brewery in New Hope. It’s a good, solid place. Restaurants in the Lambertville/Bucks/Frenchtown area are way overrated, IMO. The Black Bass’ heyday was long ago.
Rich (120)-
Why don’t you short MOT?
Talk about “system of a down”…here’s MOT’s 3-month chart:
http://money.excite.com/jsp/ct/bigchart.jsp?symbol_search_text=MOT&chartdate=3
Is EveryMay [across from Frenchtown] also overrated?
I would concur on the LGs- generally very solid phones. I have a Motorola “Q” w/ extended battery, it’s been pretty good (though with plenty of features I never use). Had a Treo which was also great, but way too bulky.
However, some years ago I was horrified to learn that LG = LuckyGoldstar
If you ever owned something with that brand, god help you!
Guess they managed to pull off a serious brand-image change…
Why to take care of yourself Brad
New Century Financial Corp. has proposed paying at least $6.3 million in bonuses to 131 key employees,should all the Irvine-based company’s assets be sold off. The bonus money includes $3.48 million for Chief Executive Brad Morrice and seven company officials…the remaining money would be split among 123 employees.
http://www.latimes.com/business/careers/work/la-fi-wrap12.1apr12,1,5685772.story?coll=la-headlines-business-careers
Chi.,
[101],
One of the all time greats; up there with Flutie to Phelan.
Hope this was’nt posted already
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/04/12/house-price-drop-thats-unpossible.aspx
Rentlord,
I know the guys that started celltrade, do you know them also? I have found it to be a small world on this blog.
Chicago,
My husband is the worse for breaking cell phones – each contract period my son and I have the same phone and he goes thru at least 3 – I have bought all different brands on ebay used for him. Right now he has the free lg from verizon and its very sturdy. I don’t know the model but it is the free one. I have the razor and the battery time is incredible. I charge maybe twice a week. So far I have had the best service from verizon, I’ve been thru AT& T T-mobile & Sprint ( the worse) and now verizon.
But you should probaly parse the data before making any decisons (-:
KL
ChiFi (125)-
EverMay is great…if you’re 88 years old and can’t chew.
My vote goes to LG. I have spiked my current LG harder than Chad Johnson after a touchdown, tossed it out a car window (on purpose) and stomped it several times. Other than some scratches, it’s none the worse for the wear & tear.
ChiFi-
The Sergeantsville Inn is good for drinks. Don’t know about the chow, though.
KL, I should have added the disclaimer –
I have no affiliation to celltradeusa.com.
That site is a smart idea but it’s still not easy to beat the monopoli-stic tactics of cell phone companies.
Talking of phones, I got a note from Patriot Media saying they will start charging NJ State Sales tax on my digital phone (voip)!
Anyone else with VOIP seeing this?
Downstairs bathroom sink shot, just started leaking all over the place.
Oh well, have the landlord fix it tomorrow.
Clotpoll Says:
April 12th, 2007 at 5:50 pm
ChiFi (125)-EverMay is great…if you’re 88 years old and can’t chew.
Lee Harvey: That reminds me of the old SNL skit with Bill Murray………..
Pre-Chewed Charlie’s – a steakhouse for people with dentures, where the waiters come to your table, and pre-chew your food for you. This parody satirized a small chain of restaurants near Times Square in New York City called Beefsteak Charlie’s.
lisooh,
Yeah I’m bummed out also, my oven broke – going to sears over the weekend, I have to take the amount off my starts with a (7) rent that includes heat. I have’nt bought a stove in about 12 years maybe he’ll even owe me.
KL
lisooh,
Yeah I’m bummed out also, my oven broke – going to sears over the weekend, I have to take the amount off my starts with a (7) rent that includes heat. I have’nt bought a stove in about 12 years maybe he’ll even owe me.
KL
CF
LG cellphone. My old one won’t break. My husband got a new one a few months ago and loves it, but I don’t know what it is – some picture phone with BT. No contract, cause we’d spend more. They don’t offer our cheapo 59.99 a month plan anymore, so we just buy phones.
Try here if you want something a little different, but New Hopie:
http://www.hotelduvillage.com/
Oh, you said Brunch. You’d have to call there and see if they could set you up.
Did anybody see this?
http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/story/7407923p-7303294c.html
My phone is LG too….. very durable and stubborn…refuses to go away.
Pat – thank you!