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From Bloomberg:
H&R Block Agrees to Sell Option One Mortgage to Cerberus
R Block Inc., the largest tax preparer in the U.S., agreed to sell its money-losing subprime home-loan unit to Cerberus Capital Management LP.
Cerberus will pay the cash value of the tangible net assets of Option One Mortgage Corp. when the deal closes, less $300 million, H&R Block said in a statement today. Those assets totaled $1.27 billion as of Jan. 31, it said. H&R Block may also receive an additional cash payment.
The company said yesterday that Option One would cause a net loss in fiscal 2007, signaling a deal was near completion. H&R Block decided that an impairment charge “materially greater” than the unit’s goodwill of $152.5 million is required, according to a regulatory filing.
Chief Executive Officer Mark Ernst previously set the price of Option One at $1.3 billion and reiterated that target as recently as March 14. The value of subprime loans and lenders have plunged, analysts including UBS AG’s Kelly Flynn estimate. Investors had pressed Ernst to sell the unit regardless of the sale price.
From the Daily Record:
Lawsuit: Overturn Highlands Act
Three Morris County land owners joined Warren County on Thursday in asking a Superior Court judge to declare the 2004 Highlands Water Protection and Planning Act unconstitutional. They claim the measure confiscated much of the value of undeveloped land in half the North Jersey region.
The long-promised 53-page lawsuit, filed in Mercer County, asks a judge to declare the act invalid and send it back to the Legislature to be fixed based on four counts. It is the 10th suit filed against the act, but the first by a governmental body. A group of property owners is still planning to file its own suit soon against the law in federal court.
“I don’t have a problem with what they’re doing, just don’t take it out of my pocket,” said Charles “Bill” Shoop, who owns 100 acres in Washington Township that he believes have lost 80 percent of their value because they were placed in the legislated preservation area that has strict controls on development. “If they would just treat me fairly, that’s all I want.”
From the Washington Post:
‘Upside Down’ Home Sellers Owe More Than They Get
Jeffrey Taylor and his wife bought their dream home in Purcellville for $538,000 last August. Now they have to sell it because they are getting divorced and neither one can afford the mortgage alone.
The most they could get for it was $430,000. After paying all the real estate commissions and taxes, they will still owe the bank $118,000.
“Five months later, I lose $100,000,” Taylor, a high school teacher, said. “I don’t think I can take $100,000 into the stock market and lose it faster.”
Such a scenario, known as a short sale, was unthinkable during the real estate boom of recent years. In the course of five months, a person could buy and sell a property and walk away with tens of thousands of dollars. Now, instead of receiving large checks at the settlement table, many sellers are writing them.
“It was unheard of three years ago,” said Kevin Connelly, a mortgage banker for Pinnacle Financial in Vienna. “Everyone was doubling their money, and suddenly the tide has turned.”
The funny thing about the Highlands Act is that so many people attempt to view it in the context of environmental policy. In reality, it needs to be judged purely as a political act of vengeance. More specifically, it is NJ’s Forced-Wealth-Redistributors’ latest major assault on an area that offers little support for their campaign to turn NJ into a complete, Danish-style welfare state.
Simply examining the “map” of the area covered by the Act reveals its political nature. It resembles a Rorschach test, zigging and zagging for no apparent reason…until you realize that many of those zigs and zags were made to accomodate landowners/developers who donated money to McGreevey.
The area covered by the Highlands Act- no coincidence- has traditionally offered little to no support for the radical left in NJ politics. And McGreevey, ever the political animal, saw in the Act a way to punish the covered area, score major points with the environmental lobby and at the same time guarantee that the population could never grow to a point that it would ever become a political force in Trenton. In effect, the Highlands Act was the equivalent of a political neutron bomb.
To all our Hindu friends;
Happy Akshaya Tritiya. Enjoy your celebration. Pay homage to that golden link. Enough said, just go out and buy the damn metal.
“Caterpillar Inc., the world’s largest maker of earthmoving equipment, posted lower first- quarter profit and raised its per-share and sales forecasts.”
“Most of the spending this cycle is being driven overseas — reflecting the industrialization of developing economies such as China, India and the Middle East,” Jamie Cook, a Credit Suisse analyst in New York, wrote in a note released before the earnings. “We believe this plays to Caterpillar’s strengths, with 55 percent of sales overseas and unmatched global dealer network.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeqYT0tqFTP0&refer=home
Clot,
Well said.
Some Q & A which have been discussed on this site. From marketwatch;
“Realty Q&A: Do I owe fired agent if I sell house myself?”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/realty-qa-do-owe-fired/story.aspx?guid=%7BFC3197A4%2D88C0%2D4C1A%2DA176%2DB880093AAAD7%7D
I’m always late posting links. I hope these weren’t posted before. Two articles from the Wed. Journal about the mortgage problem. First one is about government refusing to bailout borrowers.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117683336637072882-email.html
This other one is about option ARM’s and the mess they’ll probably create. The best parts of that article are: “In 2005 and 2006, lenders granted about $535 billion of option ARM’s, accounting for 9% of the total market…A recent study by UBS AG found that the peak years for option ARM’s adjusting to higher rates will be in 2010 and 2011.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117685894809873420-email.html
From Forbes:
Luxury Homes on the Block
Subprime lending. It’s enough to strike fear in the heart of the most credit-worthy homeowner.
Indeed, scores of homeowners and banks, reacting to recent mortgage defaults, are scrambling to sell off housing, often at a loss. In watching congressional hearings and reading media reports, it seems the subprime problem is germane to the low end of the market.
But there is something of a fire sale in the luxury sector as well.
“Even wealthier households use ARM products to finance the purchase of luxury homes in expensive areas,” says Anthony Sanders, real estate finance chair at Ohio State University, of adjustable rate mortgages at the center of the subprime saga. “The rate resets combined with declining house values are creating a problem even in this sector of the housing market.”
…
Many of the luxury sector homes currently on the block–either due to relocation or market and payment pressures–are second and third homes. Definitive data does not yet exist on luxury homes in the subprime fallout–due to the prematurity of such a market state–but according to King, the most market activity exists in second home markets like South Florida or Colorado, or locales where the housing market drastically over-expanded in the early 2000s like Las Vegas or Los Angeles.
Other deals may be had in places such as Nantucket, Mass., Naples, Fla., and Scottsdale, Ariz.
Heard on Bloomberg radio, that rents are expected to increase across the nation as housing deflates (except in Colorado state)… the reasoning being that more people will opt for renting rather than buying thus driving rents upwards.
Would like to see what the regulars think about rents in NJ.
JB [10],
How true. The misconception in the industry and our cracker jack elected leaders; subprime is a low income/lower step of the ladder problem. This mess did not discriminate. There is no bailout that can correct this nightmare.
Here’s a simple question for the latest generation that’s (ahem..) “wired” differently. I’m sure the substantial grasp on complex arithmetic concepts mastered by the extensive exposure to iPods and video games will be a piece of cake for you group of masterminds.
Question: A house cost $250,000 in year 2000. The same house is listed for $500,000 in year 2005. After months on the market, Brad and Muffy make an offer for $460,000 which is accepted. How much money did Brad and Muffy save?
Brad and Muffy didn’t save anything.
Gary [13],
Not a part of generation RX. However, Muffy sounds interesting.
Brad and Muffy lost about 80,000 up font and 20g’s a year for the next 4. At least based on the rent vs own calcultors and the historical mean.
BC Bob,
Muffy is indeed interesting. :)
Brad and Muffy lost money as they had to bring a check to the closing table for $40,000. The Mew’d themselves to 490,000 and throw in your closing costs, and thats how I came up with my figure.
KL
“Happy Akshaya Tritiya. Enjoy your celebration. Pay homage to that golden link. Enough said, just go out and buy the damn metal.”
dont bet on it
“http://news.sulekha.com/nlink.aspx?cid=548764”
From Fierce Healthcare:
NJ charity care program faces fraud, waste
According to a new report by state investigators, a New Jersey program designed to help the poor and uninsured get emergency care is being sapped by waste and fraud due to poor oversight by hospitals and state officials. The state currently pays hospitals a portion of the cost of emergency care for some 300,000 poor state residents with no health coverage. This year, the program should spend $583.4 million on charity care, partly drawing on funds from federal sources. The problem is that some people who do have resources are scamming hospitals and the state, such as the man who received $88,000 worth of treatment despite owning a company and making $119,000 a year, the State Commission of Investigation (SCI) said.
Brad and Muffy saved the current bagholder’s arse by transferring that responsibility to themselves
gary Says:
April 20th, 2007 at 9:50 am
BC Bob,
Muffy is indeed interesting. :)
g: one of the best names of a business ever was on Main Street in Fort Lee circa 1992. A bakery called “Muffin Stuffin”.
“dont bet on it”
MJ [19],
Could not open your link. By the way, I don’t bet.
Speaking of Fort Lee, anyone remember “Memories” restaurant?
just got back from 5 cities around china. i won’t bore you with details but some quick thoughts…
– IMHO the media are not overplaying the china economic movement, they are missing how much and how fast things are moving.
-shanghai is basically NYC, but everything is new and urban planning is better (no need to ask with government control…just DO IT).
-the cost of labor in the cities is approaching America’s quickly. they are ‘going west’ for cheap labor but have an infinite supply…even talking how its cheaper to get stuff made in Vietnam now.
-the pollution is so thick in every city i visited that visibility is seriously compromised at any elevation when the air is stagnate (often) and you can (or at least i can) barely breath outside.
-they are savvy entrepreneurs (sp) that dress western and speak decent english.
-what communism? the companies are now responsible for 50% of medical bills. they are lowering taxes to provide certain incentives to r&d in china.
in sum: teach your kids mandarin.
For those thinking Bernanke & the Fed won’t let housing crash, guess you don’t remember the NASDAQ crash or WIN either huh?
With the dollar tanking, inflation will rise, giving Bernanke two reasons to make the next move UP, not down. And yup, you know what that’ll do to the markets and housing. So be it.
It is NOT the Fed’s role to protect asset prices. It’s the Fed’s role to fight against inflation. Even the incompetent Alan Greenspan, Mr. Bubble himself, telegraphed how this latest bubble would end, and I think with the Alt-A and Subprime meltdowns we’re now at the “investor caution” stage:
http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/2007/04/for-those-thinking-bernanke-fed-wont.html
kinda timely given our recent discourse…..
as they Edinburgh…..”fookin’ daft”
Wall Street Journal
The Most-Praised Generation Goes to Work
Uber-stroked kids are reaching adulthood — and now their bosses (and spouses) have to deal with them. Jeffrey Zaslow on ‘applause notes,’ celebrations assistants and ego-lifting dinnerware. By JEFFREY ZASLOW April 20, 2007; Page W1
You, You, You — you really are special, you are! You’ve got everything going for you. You’re attractive, witty, brilliant. “Gifted” is the word that comes to mind.
Childhood in recent decades has been defined by such stroking — by parents who see their job as building self-esteem, by soccer coaches who give every player a trophy, by schools that used to name one “student of the month” and these days name 40.
Now, as this greatest generation grows up, the culture of praise is reaching deeply into the adult world. Bosses, professors and mates are feeling the need to lavish praise on young adults, particularly twentysomethings, or else see them wither under an unfamiliar compliment deficit.
Employers are dishing out kudos to workers for little more than showing up. Corporations including Lands’ End and Bank of America are hiring consultants to teach managers how to compliment employees using email, prize packages and public displays of appreciation. The 1,000-employee Scooter Store Inc., a power-wheelchair and scooter firm in New Braunfels, Texas, has a staff “celebrations assistant” whose job it is to throw confetti — 25 pounds a week — at employees. She also passes out 100 to 500 celebratory helium balloons a week. The Container Store Inc. estimates that one of its 4,000 employees receives praise every 20 seconds, through such efforts as its “Celebration Voice Mailboxes.”
Certainly, there are benefits to building confidence and showing attention. But some researchers suggest that inappropriate kudos are turning too many adults into narcissistic praise-junkies. The upshot: A lot of today’s young adults feel insecure if they’re not regularly complimented.
America’s praise fixation has economic, labor and social ramifications. Adults who were overpraised as children are apt to be narcissistic at work and in personal relationships, says Jean Twenge, a psychology professor at San Diego State University. Narcissists aren’t good at basking in other people’s glory, which makes for problematic marriages and work relationships, she says.
Her research suggests that young adults today are more self-centered than previous generations. For a multiuniversity study released this year, 16,475 college students took the standardized narcissistic personality inventory, responding to such statements as “I think I am a special person.” Students’ scores have risen steadily since the test was first offered in 1982. The average college student in 2006 was 30% more narcissistic than the average student in 1982.
Praise Inflation
Employers say the praise culture can help them with job retention, and marriage counselors say couples often benefit by keeping praise a constant part of their interactions. But in the process, people’s positive traits can be exaggerated until the words feel meaningless. “There’s a runaway inflation of everyday speech,” warns Linda Sapadin, a psychologist in Valley Stream, N.Y. These days, she says, it’s an insult unless you describe a pretty girl as “drop-dead gorgeous” or a smart person as “a genius.” “And no one wants to be told they live in a nice house,” says Dr. Sapadin. “‘Nice’ was once sufficient. That was a good word. Now it’s a put-down.”
[edit]
As he sees it, those over age 60 tend to like formal awards, presented publicly. But they’re more laid back about needing praise, and more apt to say: “Yes, I get recognition every week. It’s called a paycheck.” Baby boomers, Mr. Nelson finds, often prefer being praised with more self-indulgent treats such as free massages for women and high-tech gadgets for men.
Workers under 40, he says, require far more stroking. They often like “trendy, name-brand merchandise” as rewards, but they also want near-constant feedback. “It’s not enough to give praise only when they’re exceptional, because for years they’ve been getting praise just for showing up,” he says.
[edit]
No More Red Pens
Some young adults are consciously calibrating their dependence on praise. In New York, Web-developer Mia Eaton, 32, admits that she loves being complimented. But she feels like she’s living on the border between a twentysomething generation that requires overpraise and a thirtysomething generation that is less addicted to it. She recalls the pre-Paris Hilton, pre-reality-TV era, when people were famous — and applauded — for their achievements, she says. When she tries to explain this to younger colleagues, “they don’t get it. I feel like I’m hurting their feelings because they don’t understand the difference.”
Young adults aren’t always eager for clear-eyed feedback after getting mostly “atta-boys” and “atta-girls” all their lives, says John Sloop, a professor of rhetorical and cultural studies at Vanderbilt University. Another issue: To win tenure, professors often need to receive positive evaluations from students. So if professors want students to like them, “to a large extent, critical comments [of students] have to be couched in praise,” Prof. Sloop says. He has attended seminars designed to help professors learn techniques of supportive criticism. “We were told to throw away our red pens so we don’t intimidate students.”
[edit]
Mr. Smolinsky enjoys giving praise when it’s warranted, he says, “but there needs to be a flip side. When people are lousy, they need to be told that.” He notices that his students often disregard his harsher comments. “They’ll say, ‘Yeah, well…’ I don’t believe they really hear it.”
In the end, ego-stroking may feel good, but it doesn’t lead to happiness, says Prof. Twenge, the narcissism researcher, who has written a book titled “Generation Me: Why Today’s Young Americans Are More Confident, Assertive, Entitled — and More Miserable than Ever Before.” She would like to declare a moratorium on “meaningless, baseless praise,” which often starts in nursery school. She is unimpressed with self-esteem preschool ditties, such as the one set to the tune of “Frère Jacques”: “I am special/ I am special/ Look at me…”
[edit]
How wealthy is Muffy’s daddy?
Re that Wash Post article: The guy is a high school teacher and he and the wife bought a $500k+ home. I’d like to see what kind of creative financing went into that purchase.
#16 gary: “How much money did Brad and Muffy save?”
Well, gary – given that I do in fact play video games almost every day -altho I don’t own an ipod- I almost feel up to your challenge.
First, I’ll assume this isn’t an ebay-type trick with Brad & Muffy being the sellers as well as the buyers. See, I’m not joking about being tech-savvy.
Second, I’ll assume that Brad & Muffy are first time buyers, are not moving in from a financially more expensive situation, eg a bigger house, more expensive area (higher taxes) or more expensive rental situation. In fact, I’ll assume they are housing zeros and no tax rationale is involved and no income is expect (eg, renting all or part). Heck, I’ll assume that there are no economic effects to the housing decision.
Third, I’ll assume that Brad & Muffy are not applying for a screwy mortgage, and specifically, that they will not be in a zero-equity situation. I’m also assuming there won’t be any future bailout of bad loans (in which they could be saving a ton!).
Fourth, I’ll assume that housing prices may rise or they may fall after the purchase, but not during the decision & buying period. I know, that’s a unfair assumption to make.
Given the above, I’d guess that Brad & Muffy have saved at least 10% and maybe 20% of the downpayment before buying the house, plus closing costs & fees. Yep, that’s my answer.
However, if you were actually asking about how badly were Brad & Muffy screwed by paying alot for a house that someone else bought much cheaply, I’d have to say I don’t know since I don’t know Brad & Muffy’s situation. However, I will point out that they did save $40K off the price that someone wanted to sell their house – which isn’t too shabby. If I could get that kind of discount on a regular basis, I’d be a pretty happy person because, generally, I’m not that bummed about paying keystone.
:)
-P
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The url http://njrealestatereport.com will become non-functional this afternoon as I begin to migrate the site over to the new VPS hosting facility. This URL is not the primary URL for the site. Most people do not use this URL to access the site.
Please make sure that you are using (or have the following link bookmarked):
https://njrereport.com
(Chances are you are already using this one).
jb
thatbigwindow Says:
April 20th, 2007 at 10:24 am
Speaking of Fort Lee, anyone remember “Memories” restaurant?
YES
I’d also be curious about opinions on rents (I’m a renter). I see the arguments about why rates would rise, but as a counter I would argue that there should be new housing converting to rentals because of foreclosure/inability to sell. Rents are limited by current income, and I don’t see that on the rise…
look at the crap they put on MSN, looks like the realtors are dying for bussiness.
http://realestate.msn.com/selling/Article2.aspx?cp-documentid=4706111>1=9323
curiousd Says:
April 20th, 2007 at 10:25 am
just got back from 5 cities around china. i won’t bore you with details but some quick thoughts…
-what communism?
in sum: teach your kids mandarin.
curiousd: I appreciate you insights. My comment is more devil’s advocate. You have the experience, you were there, I cannot strongly refute anything you have said.
However, from what I have heard, you witnessed a postage stamp sized piece of the country that was specifically staged to impress foreigners. The vast country and population is being manipulated and pushed in an unsustainable way. The key points in time will be after we pass the 2008 Olympics and further there is some large world economic conference in 2010 or so. After this point, there is a real possibility that much of this drive will come crashing down. I would rather gamble of India, and I don’t want to gamble right now anyway.
#28 HEHE: I love how these articles start with they bought their dream house, and here they ar less than a year later divorcing.
One set back and off to divorce court.
BBB:
This reminds me…..I need referrals for marriage counsleors in Northern New Jersey and NYC. Please send them to chicagofinance at yahoo.com [trying to avoid spam].
Heard on Bloomberg radio, that rents are expected to increase across the nation as housing deflates (except in Colorado state)… the reasoning being that more people will opt for renting rather than buying thus driving rents upwards.
What happens to the home that homeowner vacates in order to rent?
jb
#22 chicagofinance:
How about the Fort Lee Madonna Carnival? Do you know if they still have it? Used to be a good pickup place when I was growing up. Also, is Hiram’s still serving up those awesome dogs?
Rutt’s Hut
Here are the monthly numbers for Monmouth County. I’ve stopped Ocean County tracking due to problems with the site.
Inventory of SFH listed on Realtor.com sites for Monmouth County is up about 7% since 3/19 to 5009. First time back over 5K since mid November. Inventory of Condos/THs is up 6.7%.
I started keeping stats on July 21, 2006. The SFH inventory peak in my numbers was 5,522 on Sept. 22.
Median asking prices are actually up moderately for SFH in Eastern and Western Monmouth County and down slightly in Southern MC. Condo/TH prices are up in E.Mon, but basically unchanged in the other two regions.
MLS SFHs price Condo/TH price
E.Mon 2599 $459K 841 $349
W.Mon 1812 $565K 298 $319
S.Mon 598 $789K 129 $415
Thanks all for contributing to that enormously complex (…cough) house purchase question. The correct answer is Brad and Muffy lost money. The exact amount cannot be determined as we don’t know if the Bradster and Muffster put any money down. We can hypothesize that if the put no money down, then they got hoodwinked for at least $148,000 as the list price should’ve been $312,000 and not $500,000 as their brainwashed, de-sensitized, kool-aid soaked little craniums would lead them to believe.
“However, from what I have heard, you witnessed a postage stamp sized piece of the country that was specifically staged to impress foreigners. The vast country and population is being manipulated and pushed in an unsustainable way. The key points in time will be after we pass the 2008 Olympics and further there is some large world economic conference in 2010 or so. After this point, there is a real possibility that much of this drive will come crashing down. I would rather gamble of India, and I don’t want to gamble right now anyway.”
I doubt it, I belive they started the whole thing in the 1980s, way before the 2008 Olympics was in the picture, and they have been at it for almost 2-3 decades now, don’t underestimate them, it will be our biggest mistake.
BBB
I hope he wasn’t a math teacher
Clot post 4
I’m not really that up on the Highlands situation, but I have a few problems with you assessment.
While I enjoy conspiracy theories as much as the next guy, looking at the Highlands Act strictly as a form of political punishment definitely comes in as a bit over the top.
I don’t doubt that areas were carved out to benefit people who donated to McGreevey, but I have a hard time believing it had anything to do with support of a radical left agenda. Don’t confuse donations to the man with support of his agenda, it’s far more likely that they are just buying favors, and I think the McGreevey administration was an open market where anyone who wanted to was allowed to purchase.
Also, I think you need to provide some background on this “radical left agenda” of which you speak. I have a hard time coming up with any group more marginalized in this country than the radical left.
While you might look upon the Highlands Act as punishment of the area, I’m sure there are some people living in the covered area who view the law as a great way to keep the riff-raff out.
Gary,
Brad and Muffy would “save” about $540,000 in interst if they paid cash.
Ugh, ChiFi, that article about the kids is exactly why I plan to do everything the opposite of what anyone who raised a member of today’s 20-something generation did. I’m not even much older, but there is a vast difference between the attitude among my peers and those in their early 20s.
I just hope that there is some kind of support in the coming years for those of us who don’t want to raise horrible, entitled brats.
#42 HEHE: must be that new math.
You can access the Highlands maps here:
http://www.state.nj.us/dep/gis/depsplash.htm#
On the left are a group of button, click the one labeled “Launch i-MapNJ DEP”. A new screen will open.
On the left will be a list of “Data Layers”. Check the box next to the Highlands label, you may need to scroll down to find it. Scroll back upwards and click the “Refresh Map” button.
You can now use the navigation tools across the top to move through the region.
jb
Par4156,
The key word is “if”.
“Brad and Muffy would “save” about $540,000 in interst if they paid cash.”
par[44],
What do they jeopardize regarding opportunity cost? Not to mention, they are buying a falling knife.
#47 NJ GAl: and I am not that much older ( I believe), than you are, and I am absolutely shocked at not just the kids, but their aprents, and at the end of the day it is the Parents who are many times at fault.
My kid is a college Sophmore, has a nice stash from summer job, but many of his peers do not have summer jobs,nor do they want them.
Sadly the parents encourage this, because the parents warped thinking says well if my kid works a summer job, people will think we are poor.
Now these same kids will be graduating in 3 years with out any kind of work experience at all.
Proclaiming OK all you employers here we are hire us, at big bucks, because we went to college.
Its amazing to me. Irinically the investment bank where I worked for many years, many of the partners kids had summer jobs at the firm, or volunteered in the inner city or down in Appalachia.
And funny, amny fo the partners still lived int eh houses they had pruchased years before.
Steering clear of the mortgage mess
One top fund manager is slashing his financial services stake and building up cash.
my gut tells me the problems stemming from the subprime mess will be a lot worse than many people expect.”
http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/19/pf/funds/Rodriguez_subprime.moneymag/index.htm?postversion=2007041911
If the China dog comes crashing down, somewhere in the vicinity of 2010, what are the consequences for its happy wagging tail?
The Morning Call in the Lehigh Valley is running out of excuses for the housing bubble here. Our foreclosures are up 30%, prices are down, inventory in March was up already 70% (wait until summer lol), people aren’t being stupid anymore.
Our population of commuters is shrinking, maybe because normal people won’t give up 3-5 hours a day to own a home.
By 2008 the prices in the Lehigh Valley will be back to 2002 or prior prices. Our bubble inflated prices over 100% in 5 years. Honestly, who couldn’t see this coming.
The rest of the article is showing yet, this is part of it.
http://www.topix.net/forum/source/the-morning-call/TO7GQU6FHD949NHLF
From Builder Online:
Builder Confidence At Low Point
Builder confidence has reached a 2007 low and is down nearly 20 points from April 2006 according to the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The HMI dropped three points to 33 in April. One year ago, the HMI was at 51.
…
The HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as either “good,” “fair,” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as either “high to very high,” “average,” or “low to very low.”
Seiders says the HMI used specific questions to determine what role the subprime issue has in the declining confidence. He also pointed out that nothing else has changed in the economy or market.
“We are getting widespread reactions on the negative,” he explained about the most recent HMI polling.
When asked if he thought the HMI would improve anytime soon, Seiders told BUILDER Online, “We’ll see how it goes. I wouldn’t expect much recovery from this for a couple of months.”
x [51],
I’m in your camp. All the models, that have been written, assume worst case, flat to small appreciation. Go ask a quant, the outcome of price declines in the 10-20%[imo, very conservative] range. Yikes.
Some weekend humor:
https://njrereport.com/images/dilbert_agent.jpg
jb
Here is another good image..
https://njrereport.com/images/The_Way_to_Grow_Poor.jpg
jb
The way to grow poor. The way to grow rich.
Lithograph by Currier & Ives, 1875.
An uncompressed archive version can be downloaded from the Library of Congress here:
http://lcweb2.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/i?pp/PPALL:@field(NUMBER+@band(cph+3a04580))
Simply timeless.
jb
From Yahoo/Finance:
Realtors Forecast Falling Home Prices
The National Association of Realtors, which has long proclaimed that U.S. home prices haven’t declined on a nationwide basis since the Great Depression, now says they are likely to do just that this year.
The Realtors, which had been projecting as recently as February a 1.9% increase in the median home price this year, now say prices for previously occupied homes will slip 0.7% this year from the 2006 level.
The trade group’s revised outlook, which puts it in line with a growing consensus that home prices will fall at least modestly this year, underlines how quickly expectations about the market have changed in light of a recent tightening of credit by mortgage lenders. Before the subprime mortgage problems blew up recently, said Lawrence Yun, an economist for the Realtors, the group expected the housing market to begin recovering by the middle of this year. Now, he says, recovery is unlikely before late this year.
Clotpoll(4) Superb analysis! Kudos to you.
BBB, I hope your kid does well – he/she is already ahead of the game with a job. I don’t know, I worked every summer as a waitress, and prior to law school worked two jobs to earn extra (and it still wasn’t enough). I only wish I had started earlier – my parents learned though, and my sister was forced to work at 16 (and had volunteered prior to that). I don’t think any of my friends expected to have jobs handed to them, and many of them work 12 hours a day or more. We certainly don’t complain to our bosses about it.
But I have to say, unless you started early, you might be a little older – I like to say I’m “only” 31 – no college sophomores for me yet!
Does anyone have any insight or opinions about Metuchen as a place to live?
I’ve driven through the area (it seems nice, if a bit close to the entire Rt 287/Rt 1/GSP/Menlo Park Mall quagmire). Schools seem solid, low crime, somewhat reasonable property taxes (for NJ). Houses seem a bit more reasonably priced than some other areas.
One thing I’m curious about is how much different Metuchen is to Edison (considering it’s surrounded by it) and whether that area in general is getting better or worse. Also, any pollution issues with all the highways nearby?
Any and all opinions would be appreciated.
Heard on Bloomberg radio, that rents are expected to increase across the nation as housing deflates (except in Colorado state)… the reasoning being that more people will opt for renting rather than buying thus driving rents upwards.
Would like to see what the regulars think about rents in NJ.
It wouldn’t surprise me. More renters will put more pressure on the rental stock, which has already been reduced through condo-conversion projects.
However, I think this will be a short term phenomenon resulting from a rapidly transitioning housing market trying to find a new equilibrium with the rental market. As the fundamentals swing sharply in the direction of renting (why pay a huge ownership premium if your not getting 15% YOY returns), it may put demand side pressure on the rental stock.
In the big picture, however, vacancies are at an all time high, population growth in NJ is sickly and condo’s have been built wherever developers could shoe horn them in. As more owner occupied housing units return to the rental market, the pressure on rental prices should come off.
NJGal –
Be forewarned! Something I discovered after having children was how difficult it is these days to find weekend evening babysitters. In my “day” (I’m 32) I had at least one sitting job a weekend, and used the money to finance all socializing and save for college expenses. Now, in my “top” NJ town, you have to go to nearby colleges to find someone. Along those lines, it’s also rare to see kids mowing lawns or raking leaves. Everyone hires professional lawn caretakers.
I have come to believe that this is yet another way adults are displaying their “wealth” to one another. Neighbors shake their heads: if the Jonses’ kid needs a job (and such a menial one at that!) they must be hurting. Who knew? Cluck cluck.
JB, the mirror site is down:
http://njrealestatereport.com
regarding the China comments…I lived in China for a while and go back every couple of years. I’ve been to a lot of the big cities, and also out-of-the way spots too. Almost everywhere, I am surprised by the scale and pace of development that’s happening. Even in places that no tourist who visits for 2 weeks during the Olympics will go. Of course they are dressing up Beijing for the games…every country does the same thing.
yessir, see #31 above.
jb
I was planning on shelling in to create the virtual host and redirect users back to the main URL (njrereport.com), but SSH is blocked from where I am so I. Can’t make the necessary configuration changes until I get back later.
jb
I’ll just point the nameservers back for now.
jb
A house just came on the market that was purchased 12 months ago, and their asking price amounts to… wait for it… $50,000 a month “appreciation,” or $600,000 over what they paid 12 months ago.
Perhaps they bumped their head on the new granite counters.
#28
Since my children were little, I have used the term “delayed gratification” to the point that they groan when I say it. It was after reading an article years ago regarding the number of suicides by young pople when they can’t deal that they can’t always get everything they want when they want it – that’s when I started to talk about this to my children.
So many of their friends know nothing about this. They get everything they want when they want it. I’m hoping that I am raising my children to understand that they don’t/won’t get everything they want. They do get an allowance but it is tied to their chores – if they don’t do their jobs, they don’t get their allowance. If they want something special, they can use their own money. My daughter (the oldest) knows that when she is 16 she will get a life guarding job. There is no free ride in our house.
We are also trying to get her to understand that we will not be going into debt to finance a private college education away from home. I thought she understood until she announced the other day that she wants to go to college outside NJ. She is only 13 but the sooner she gets it in her head that she will be going to a state college in NJ, the better. Some might think me harsh but my kids can get a good education here (both my husband and I got degrees from NJ state colleges and then went on to get graduate degrees out of state). I have friends who plan on getting 2nd mortgages to finance expensive colleges. That will not be us.
grim: you are one of those Gen Y kids than needs constant positive feedback?……OK then….great work on the transition…keep going….everyone is supporting you…..we all appreciate your work so much…
KUDOS!!
Willow, I hope to be just like you. I never got what I want when I wanted it at a young age. I think you’re doing the right thing.
And possiblebuyer, I will keep that in mind. Unfortunately because of work we may need a live-in nanny, which should help us during the week. But they don’t work weekends!
My husband wants a big house with lots of land. When I mentioned to him that land needs upkeep, Mr. Down to Earth I Hate Materialism says, “We’ll just get gardeners.” Yes, with whose money? Because I intend to continue saving when we buy, not just spend like it’s going out of style.
We had a neighbor growing up that everytime someone on the block did something to their house, she would follow suit – someone gets a fence, she got a fence; someone got a BMW, one would appear in her driveway a week later. It was really pathetic actually, since everyone made fun of her behind her back. And the best part was that while I grew up in the well to do town, SHE was actually richer than most, because her hubby was a Wall St. guy making millions. They have 3 houses and an apt. in NYC – certainly, one would think she had no need to feel more important. But maybe it gets worse the richer you get!
Does anyone have any insight or opinions about Metuchen as a place to live?
I’ve driven through the area (it seems nice, if a bit close to the entire Rt 287/Rt 1/GSP/Menlo Park Mall quagmire). Schools seem solid, low crime, somewhat reasonable property taxes (for NJ). Houses seem a bit more reasonably priced than some other areas.
Metuchen is a pretty place – one of the priciest for the middlesex county, but nice.
Main problem: TRAFFIC. I am not going to say anything else – just go to metuchen and drive around anytime between 4 and 6 pm on the work day. Spending an hour to go 5 blocks would drive me crazy.
you are one of those Gen Y kids than needs constant positive feedback
My motivation came in a size 34, leather with a brass buckle at the end.
jb
#68-
I’m with you on China. Beijing is just going to put them more in the international spotlight. People will come and be impressed at what they have done. The stadium (american architect) is by far the most beautiful and unique ever assembled.
It’s easy to like India…democratic, better sense of humor…who can knock those sweet bollywood movies? but the fact is china is building for the future in terms of infrastructure, investment and education. China’s best years are ahead of them… not ending in 2010 i believe.
we’ll wait and see…back to NJ realestate… sorry.
From MarketWatch:
Paulson says U.S. housing sector ‘at or near bottom’
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson delivered an upbeat assessment of the economy, saying growth was healthy and the housing market was nearing a turnaround. “All the signs I look at” show “the housing market is at or near the bottom,” Paulson said in a speech to a business group in New York. The U.S. economy is “very healthy” and “robust,” Paulson said.
James Bednar Says:
My motivation came in a size 34, leather with a brass buckle at the end.
My brother has two kids who get put in the corner if they act up. Two of the wildest screamin’ kids you ever saw. One’s two the other one is 3 1/2. They go to that fancy Goddard school where they don’t say “NO”, they say “no thank you”. One spanking would go a long way. My wife’s a 5th grade teacher and I know she’s going to raise our kids the way we were raised
A lovely MSN piece here about why renters are losers and homeowners rock:
http://realestate.msn.com/selling/Article2.aspx?cp-documentid=4706111>1=9323
I crack up whenever I read stuff like this. I agree that owning a home is better than renting in the abstract, but not if you have to commit financial suicide to do it or if you end up overpaying for something in a bidding war.
From Yahoo Finance:
Footing the Bill for the Subprime Fiasco
Last week, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) proposed that the federal government spend hundreds of millions of dollars to help bail out subprime mortgage borrowers who are defaulting on their loans.
…
“It makes good sense to make sure families and neighborhoods are protected from rogue lenders and lax government oversight,” Schumer said in a speech last week, adding that he’s working on the legislation. “It’ll save homeowners from losing their equity, save cities and local governments from losing their tax revenues, and save neighborhoods from taking a big hit.”
Good sense? If a bailout is good sense, Schumer should also sponsor a bill funding free cardiac bypass surgery and liposuction for anyone the government failed to protect from eating repeatedly at McDonald’s. (Please, Chuck, let me know if this is in your plans and I’ll immediately stop jogging and eating my veggies.)
…
On the other hand, as far as I can tell, none of these modern-day bandits held a gun to anyone’s head and forced them to take out a loan.
“There’s a lot of discussion in Congress about how these are predatory loans, and widows and orphans are being thrown in the street,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president HSH Associates, a financial publisher. “But some of the issues we’re dealing with today are self-inflicted wounds — people who didn’t bother to read applications or documents and signed for a loan.”
…
Clearly, lenders, investors, and homeowners should step up to the plate here — not taxpayers. In a hearing on the crisis in March, Schumer said families were “teased into unsuitable subprime loans.”
“Teased into”? What kind of language is this? When did we transform from being a culture of opportunity to a culture of victimization? Taking out a mortgage is a choice, and choices have consequences. If we want to own our financial successes, we also have to own our financial mistakes.
And what kind of message does a government bailout send to Americans who did things the right way? People who had a job, paid their bills on time, built solid credit scores, saved for a down payment, read their loan terms, and scrutinized their budgets to make sure they could afford not only the mortgage payments, but the taxes, insurance and maintenance on their homes?
re: rents
I think any rents increases will be temporary. A lot of rental stock is coming back on the market after failing to sell.
My landlord tried to raise my rent this week (2 BR / 1 Ba apartment in the suburbs), so I decided to look around.
Well, after a mere 2 days of looking, my wife just called me to say that she put down a deposit on a 4 BR /2 Ba HOUSE in an even better area than we are currently living for just $150 per month more than we are currently paying for our apartment.
So, basically, my landlord can stuff his rent increase
legal question for folks who might know:
does a new owner of a prop get hit with NJDEP remediation for a site — or does it sit with the previous owner? what if the previous owner was foreclosed on?
Thanks — as always– in advance.
sl
The rising rent discussion raises another question;
Just say, we enter a period of time where rents are rising while house/condo prices are falling, on a national level. Again, just if. Does anybody else anticipate a change-up delivered by the bls? I can already read it; based on the fact that 70% of Americans are property owners, we feel that the current formula, calculating revisions in rent is outdated. At this time, the present method does not respresent the broadest measure of price adjustments within the residential arena. Therefore, our model[blackbox] has been modified to more accurately account for these ongoing variations.
Bingo.
By the way, if you are not familiar with the use of hedonics in calculating cpi, you may want to read.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P72746.asp
One other tibit. A few years back, Bill Gross called the calculation of cpi a “con job”. I would be happy to forward that article if anybody is interested.
Is it me or does it seem that Sen.Chuck Schumer is in everybody’s business all the time.
“the housing market is at or near the bottom,” Paulson said”
He also told the Chinese that America will increase its savings rate. Go back to GS.
#63 My kid has done very well so far,a nd I am not surprised. He knew the deal, we pay you do well. You mess up, you come home.
Any monies needed for socializing etc, come from you (and Grandmas)
And yes we started young, graduated, married, baby. Grad School at night, amazing how much work you could get doen on those long sub way rides home.
And as Possible Buyer said, and as I have asleo said, amazing as it sounds. A kid having a jobe today is considered by many so called middle/upper middle class people a sign that a family is poor.
#77 JB Even better was the wet dish towel across the back of the legs. only effective in Summer when wearing shorts, but oh how effective it was)
“It’ll save homeowners from losing their equity, save cities and local governments from losing their tax revenues, and save neighborhoods from taking a big hit.”
[81]
Funny, sounds like George Bailey [It’s a Wonderful Life].
Chuck, who will save their hummer?
This clown actually wants to go after investors? Okay, I just lost 300k in my high yield, worse than junk bond status, BBB-. Is there anyway I can assist? Does anybody blame China for its diversification plans?
Don’t know about the rest of you, but my farther never uttered the words “don’t make me say it again”…he just gave “the look” and all was peacefull in my house.
#91 Jersey: The raised hand also worked wonders
Lindsey (45)-
The far left marginalized? Last time I checked, they run this state. And frankly, I do not believe they will be satisfied until they chase everyone out of this state who is not utterly destitute or unbelievably rich.
I don’t believe the far left’s thirst for political retribution knows any bounds. After all, McGreevey- at a time of national emergency- installed his clandestine paramour as head of NJ Homeland Security; he is clearly a person who has the judgment and scruples of a hamster. And- his reasonable demeanor aside- Corzine is really no better. He has shown himself to be a toady of organized labor, and readily accepts the concept of forcing taxpayers of moderate means to not only financially support their own school districts, but also those of failed districts. Any common sense reading of this policy must lead reasonable people to believe that its intent is to punish- and systematically impoverish- a targeted class of taxpayer.
As far as residents in the Highlands being happy that the Act keeps out the “riff raff”…well, the Act was unnecessary in order to achieve that goal. Hunterdon & Somerset Counties were- and are- two of the state’s most aggressive users of Green Acres and ultra-restrictive zoning in order to limit development.
The real political function of the middle class in American society is to counterbalance extremes of interest on both the right and left. Through its superior numbers, the middle class has always held sway at the ballot box and had the final say on matters of political importance.
However, now the radical left in NJ has found a way to thwart the interests of the great majority…through the exercise of executive order, judicial activism, midnight legislation and old-fashioned backroom skullduggery. Why win the battle of ideas when you can just obliterate your opponent with dirty tricks?
curioisd and anon:
RE China: Why do I have a sneaking suspicion that the Chinese Olympic stadium is going to collapse during the opening ceremonies…..to much watered-down concrete. You think I’m kidding…..I would use it as a metaphor for the rest of the country.
Here is an example of house prices finally coming down to earth:
MLS# 2397556 $299,900
http://homes.realtor.com/prop/1079446935
With taxes of $3,626 it is affordable for a first time buyer although I’m sure it’s tiny. It’s less expensive than a lot of the condos in the area.
Anyone that follow the Upper Saddle River / Montvale / Woodcliff Lake area notice a slowdown in new listings? I was hoping that spring inventory increases would have really kicked into high gear by now.
I guess I come from a bit of a different background than a lot. I was told “no” plenty as a child, yet didn’t get any kind of gainful employment until after my freshman year of college. So what I turned into is essentially a penny pinching, saving slacker. I don’t see much point in buying myself things and pretty much avoid hard work at all costs.
My wife, on the other hand comes from an illegal immigrant/entrepreneurial background, so she’s pretty much a hard-driven workaholic type. She makes twice what I do with half the credentials. I guess our marriage balances things out; I teach her to chill and realize that work isn’t everything and she every now and then gives me a well deserved kick in the a$$.
How our coming child will fare or what our parenting technique will be, I have no idea. I think we’ll just wing it…
Willow Says:
Here is an example of house prices finally coming down to earth:
Let’s see a picture before we come to any conclusions. You might only think it’s worth $100,000 after looking at it
#95 Jersey: Well you had th Eater/Passover Holidays etc, so I think perhaps you will start to see it as we get into May.
Clot would be able to give a better explanation/perspective.
Just called our RE agent to let her know that we are suspending our house search for at least 6 months. When she asked why, I told her that it didn’t seem like there was any rush to buy, since prices are certainly not increasing, and appear to be decreasing. She responded by telling me that there is no way prices will be going down. She said they may not go up this year, but they will definitely not go down. She basically insisted that homeowners just won’t be lowering their prices — that they will hold firm. I wanted to mention that even the NAR is projecting a decline in the national median, but I didn’t want to go get into an argument.
The funny thing is, she was referred to me by my boss, who has been trying to sell her condo for two years. If she had priced it right 2 years ago she could have sold it for about $270k, and now an identical unit is under contract for about $253k. I am sure if I mentioned that to the realtor, she would just tell me that condos are different than SFHs, and that condo prices may go down, but not SFHs.
I think when we do get back in the market we will be looking for a new realtor. :)
AK
Belt buckles,stare downs, raised hands, paper routes,penny pinching savers, etc.. All this nostalgia. Sorry, I can’t help myself;
Bruce Springsteen
Lyrics to Growin’ Up
I stood stone-like at midnight suspended in my masquerade
I combed my hair till it was just right and commanded the night brigade
I was open to pain and crossed by the rain and I walked on a crooked crutch
I strolled all alone through a fallout zone and come out with my soul untouched
I hid in the clouded wrath of the crowd but when they said “Sit down,” I stood up.
Ooh… growin’ up
The flag of piracy flew from my mast, my sails were set wing to wing
I had a jukebox graduate for first mate, she couldn’t sail but she sure could sing,
I pushed B-52 and bombed ’em with the blues with my gear set stubborn on standing
I broke all the rules, strafed my old high school, never once gave thought to landing,
I hid in the clouded warmth of the crowd but when they said, “Come down,” I threw up,
Ooh… growin’ up.
I took month-long vacations in the stratosphere and you know it’s really hard to hold your breath.
I swear I lost everything I ever loved or feared, I was the cosmic kid in full costume dress,
Well, my feet they finally took root in the earth but I got me a nice little place in the stars
And I swear I found the key to the universe in the engine of an old parked car
I hid in the mother breast of the crowd but when they said, “Pull down,” I pulled up
Ooh… growin’ up.
Ooh… growin’ up
Al, #76:
Thanks for comments…I’ve been stuck in that traffic once before and it is a bit of a hassle.
Oh, darn, I didn’t get to play the Brad & Muffy game! I think Brad & Muffy made money (in their own minds) as they got the house *on sale!* Don’t you know you have to spend money to save money? Now because of their discount, they can redo the kitchen! Or go on a cruise! Or buy matching $300 jeans! Good job, Brad & Muffy! Reality, I still bet they can’t afford it. What do they do for a living again? Did they have a big down payment from their $50k wedding?
We don’t spank in my house, but we have very clear expectations & boundaries. If you don’t take the time to invest in children- yours or in general by mentoring, volunteering, supporting programs whathaveyou- we all suffer. The parents who don’t bother to invest TIME into their children are where so many issues come from, imo.
MLS# 2396512
Listing price lower than assessed value. So what happens when it is bought for a much lower price than the assessed value. Will assessment will be lowered during the next appraisal.
#95 J4L,
I keep an eye on those areas, more so USR than Montvale and WCL(former resident). In my price range I’ve actually noticed a slight uptick in listing activity the past 2 weeks in USR. Not 100% sure if it’s due to all new listings or if it’s a combo of new listings and price drops into my range.
In general, it’s silly the # of houses for sale, my gut feeling is the inventory to potential buyer ratio has got to be like 3:1.
“She said they may not go up this year, but they will definitely not go down.”
[99]
Hah. Tell her, if you go to contract you want her/her organization to guarantee this. How about a part of the respa statement, witnessed and signed by both closing attorneys.
Back to Muffy. The head woman’s basketball coach at Notre Dame; Muffet McGraw.
#97
I have seen it and it is a small bungalow on a dead end street in West Caldwell. That house is priced to sell considering the neighborhood and town.
D,
Don’t fret, perhaps there will be other test questions of mind-numbing complexity in the future. Muffy does have a sister; her name is Precious and I understand she is looking to buy, also.
Listing price lower than assessed value. So what happens when it is bought for a much lower price than the assessed value. Will assessment will be lowered during the next appraisal.
file a tax appeal
Little Miss Muffy, and her Brad Hubby, thowing their savings away.
Along came a realtor [add punchline here]
Interesting piece from Lou Barnes at Inman.
Too-good-to-be-true loans end an era
This article won’t be available after midnight tonite (Friday).
jb
Never ever again will it be as it was from 2001 to 2006.
Check out this article:
5 lousy excuses for not buying a home
Hard-core renters can come up with all kinds of reasons to avoid real-estate purchases. Here are some of the usual stories — and why they just don’t wash.
http://realestate.msn.com/selling/Article2.aspx?cp-documentid=4706111>1=9323
This from “SmartMoney” magazine. Another bit of propaganda to get people to buy houses…
AK
#84
Remediation costs, in a perfect world, are the responsibility of the party creating the pollution be it on-site or off-site. Generally, the cost of soil/ground water testing/monitoring is, however, the responsibility of the owner.
#100 New: What can you say, out of the mouths of babes. Guess she was not around for the last real estate down turn.
Excellent article.
Never ever again will it be as it was from 2001 to 2006.
Never say never. If there is one thing we learn from history, it’s that we don’t learn from history.
It may take another 75 years for another episode as ridiculous as this one, but it will happen.
People will look back at this bubble & meltdown and reassure themselves they are smarter than people back then. “It’s different this time”.
couple of new houses out in westfield in the ‘starter’ range (3BR, 1 1/2BA) all in the mid $600’s. all need decent cosmetic work, all need a new kitchen (and maybe baths). these people are nuts. these houses middle of last year would’ve sold for low $600’s maybe some even in the high $500’s. the sellers are all pricing against each other so it’s a collective insanity. wonder who will blink first.
samples:
2397562
2395411
2372867
2379188
>>Is it me or does it seem that Sen.Chuck Schumer is in everybody’s business all the time.
i know him personally (well at least used to when i was doing non profit work for sept 11th victims). he’s a good guy. he truly means well it’s just his methods are suspect sometimes.
can jb or someone else w/ gsmls access please tell me the status of MLS # 2388643 …much appreciated.
thanks
‘Starter’ shacks/condos should be in the $150K to $180K range, as ridiculous as that may sound.
$60K NJ median income into 2-2.5 times annual salary implies a mortgage affordability of around $150K.
The Toll pile-on continues:
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070420/0241859.html
can jb or someone else w/ gsmls access please tell me the status of MLS # 2388643 …much appreciated.
thanks
sorry for the double post
She basically insisted that homeowners just won’t be lowering their prices — that they will hold firm.
So, 74 million US homeowners are going to form a giant cartel and refuse to lower prices? OPEC can’t even hold 12 members together.
Sorry, markets just don’t work this way. Yes, many owners will refuse to lower prices. Housing bubble declines are typically characterized by illiquidity. However, many others will be forced to sell; job change, ARM resetting, divorce, etc. Others have enough equity where they don’t care (i.e. I’m retiring to North Carolina and this house is worth more than I ever dreamed and I own outright. I’m pricing to sell).
A few of these sales in your neighborhood and there goes the comps. Even if someone won’t to buy your house, the appraisal won’t come in.
Don’t know the area. I’m sure it is not on a “desirable” street. However, here is a starter in Westfield, motivated seller, asking 434k.
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/314331054.html
“She basically insisted that homeowners just won’t be lowering their prices — that they will hold firm.”
The only thing that is firm is the brain clot[no pun intended].
One of these days they will learn, it’s only worth what a ready, willing and able buyer is prepared to pay. Excuse me, that’s so 2006-ish. In addition to a ready, willing and able buyer, now 2007-ish; qualified with a dp.
Best town ever? Isn’t that a little bit of a stretch?
Wow…..It’s in the best town “Ever”. Who can refuse?
hey jb any help on # 123
Not so good for the other buyers in this “Luxury” building.
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/308014476.html
People are trying to sell 1Br/1Ba’s for $495k.
hobokenite,
re: craigslist posting. Still not a bargain, preforclosure or not.
Looks like that place was bought for $345k in ’03.
afe
I wasn’t suggesting it was a bargain. Just pointing out that it’s got to suck for the other sellers in the building (not to mention the 700 Grove building next door).
Besides, this is surely just a sham. Everybody knows that all people who live in Hoboken/JC work on Wall Street, and make $$$$$.
JB,
You get those numbers I sent you?
Not much change…
#84
If you are thinking of buying the property, it depends on the deal that you make with the prior owner. If the prior owner is solvent and wants to retain responsibility for the cleanup, the NJDEP will allow this. If you want to make a deal with the prior owner (think price reduction) and assume his responsibility for the cleanup, NJDEP will allow this too. Sometimes this makes things easier, because then you have more control over how the cleanup gets done.
If you already own the property and you discovered contamination that you didn’t know about, then it gets more complicated. If you did a DEP-approved environmental assessment before you bought the property and didn’t find anything, DEP can’t hold you responsible for any new problems that you find. If not, then you would have to go back after the prior owner for the cleanup. If the prior owner is not solvent, then DEP will probably come after you.
h-kite,
Did not mean to suggest u were saying it was a bargain. I was just struck by the fact that he states he is selling “preforclosure” for an amount 200k above his buying price. Either this is a sham or he has taken out all equity and now wants a “bagholder” to pay for his hummer.
afe
thank you BCamp (144) and anon (135)
I will look into it and hopefully add more enlightenment as things progress. Will keep interested parties posted.
sl
“bagholder”
By the way, where is BOOOYAAAA? Also, his step-brother; Listen?
Can someone njmls access please tell me the status/location of MLS # 2703077
thanks in advance
D (103)-
Time trumps capital. Every time.
Grim (113)-
Sure it will. People never learn.
Renting (125)-
Precisely.
BC (138)-
Booyah and WAAAAAAHH e-mailed me looking for tix for next year’s Super Bowl.
They are also now following the NASCAR circuit. They intend to catch every race…including the trucks.
Renting (125)-
BTW…one or two foreclosures in your neighborhood will really futzle up the comps, too.
Bergen County is really depressing. Drove by a very pretty house today in Cresskill. Colonial style, nice piece of property. The price turned out to be $829K.
I think that all the sellers in BC get together and plot to never reduce prices. It’s just not coming down.
Re #50 & #51 – Gary and Bob.
You’re both right of course. I am one of the people that recently bought a “bargin” compared to ’05 prices but overvalued if we readjust to historical mean appreciation. So I spend alot of time looking at how to minimize the damage. I can’t pay cash…but aggressive pre-payment of principal is next best thing I guess..!?? I figure I’ll need to pay an additional 40,000 in principal over the next 8-10 years…I hope we don’t lose the interest and property tax deduction!
Re #50 & #51 – Gary and Bob.
You’re both right of course. I am one of the people that recently bought a “bargin” compared to ’05 prices but overvalued if we readjust to historical mean appreciation. So I spend alot of time looking at how to minimize the damage. I can’t pay cash…but aggressive pre-payment of principal is next best thing I guess..!?? I figure I’ll need to pay an additional 40,000 in principal over the next 8-10 years…I hope we don’t lose the interest and property tax deduction!
huh…don’t know why that posted twice…..
what_bubble,
MLS# 2388643
OLP: $645,500
LP: $645,500
DOM: 28
Do you need an address or any other info?
Just had this conversation with my brother… prices in the 600K plus range are here to stay. These drunken b*stards would rather die than lower the prices. If you want a nice home, move. It ain’t happening here. My brother is good friends with a realtor and he just emailed me a house listed for $649,000. She said it will move in two weeks. I own a sh*tty little cape and I’m having trouble figuring out on how to trade up. Now, I won’t believe a word the realtor says but my gut says Northern NJ/NY area is locked in. The bottom line… pony up, move or rent.
Gary,
There are decent homes in NNJ in the 400-450 with taxes below $7000. Good schools, transport options and shopping, arts, etc nearby. 3 and 4 bedrooms…many with at least 1.5 – 2 baths or more. smallish lots (60×120) but big enough to play in the back yard. The trade up wouldn’t be as big as a $600,000 house but might be worth considering. Let me know if you would like more info.
Some exapmles of homes I think will close in that price range….
http://newmls.gsmls.com/public/runReport.rpt?sysid=%203702014&ptype=RES&report=res_media&fromPublic=PUBLIC
http://newmls.gsmls.com/public/runReport.rpt?sysid=%203702619&ptype=RES&report=res_media&fromPublic=PUBLIC
These may need a little paint or other aesthetic work, but don’t look like POS’s to me…and this isn’t a bad neighbourhood.
Look what the cat dragged in….
jb: thanks. i worked backwards off the monmouth county tax website and think the address is 7 irving st? am i right?
I think similar homes are closing at 5-10% below asking…so you can use the part of the extra $300,000 you would spend on a fancier house in a weaker school district on improvements (while paying half the taxes)
most of these folks looking to sell for exhorbitant prices are really smoking crack.
I gotta laugh. Some developer bought a house on Wearimus (Ho-Ho-Kus,) tore down then rebuilt a 7500 sq foot monstrosity on barely an acre. Looks impressive from the front til you get to the 35 ft deep back yard.
Was initially listed for 3.375+ mil and now I just saw it listed, now down to 2.99 mil.
I guess they are waiting for the next Lotto winners to drop by the next open house.
Gotta love this housing market.
# sure the seller is motivated.
motivated to make some money.
good grief $434? on North Ave?? No, thanks.
prev post was RE: 126 and 132
What about Pine and North Maple Ave in Ridgewood??? Anyone know how long that has been on the market and what the price movements have been???
BTW – here are some listings in the same range as the houses I posted before. These have double the taxes, schools, crime etc about the same…
http://new.gsmls.com/public/getMediaReport.do?mlsNum=2374509&imageCount=8
http://new.gsmls.com/public/getMediaReport.do?mlsNum=2392476&imageCount=1
Par4156,
It doesn’t make sense for me. I’m going to sell my house to buy the same house. You can scrape together a quarter of a million dollars and still be in the bag for $3400 a month in PITI for some POS split. It’s f*cking absurd. And what’s even more absurd is that deep down, I’m sorta hoping for a shakeout of breadline proportions.
Why should the old school and those who played by the book take a beaten? Let the f*cking morons who need their 8 burner outdoor grills get hammered. I’m taking this thing much too seriously but it transcends every aspect of our lives, that’s why I get so bent.
I worked 14 hours today, I think I need some sleep. The soapbox is humming… more tomorrow.
The housing bubble has turned the years when I should have been able to buy my first home into an annual ritual of oh crap, the lease is up, what do I do? I’m not willing to financially cripple myself just to paint the walls whatever color I want. Let the hordes who leveraged themselves to the hilt for starter mansions get what they deserve when their ARMs reset.
Purchasing real estate makes sense when you buy the right place for the right price. Owning real estate is a sensible way to keep a roof over your head, not an investment. When I buy, it will be from a position of strength, not from a position of weakness or a result of being caught up in hysteria.
7 irving st? am i right?
Correct.
It doesn’t make sense for me. I’m going to sell my house to buy the same house. You can scrape together a quarter of a million dollars and still be in the bag for $3400 a month in PITI for some POS split. It’s f*cking absurd
This is exactly the reason that folks are leaving North Jersey for lower-cost areas. If they purchased their home 10 years ago, there is a good chance they’ll net enough to buy a larger and newer home outright in other parts of the country.
Sure, you’ll take a pay cut when you move, but also consider the fact that you might not have a mortgage to pay.
jb
If anyone has been waiting, I’ll get a Lowball! up tomorrow morning.
jb
shopping around Says:
Can someone njmls access please tell me the status/location of MLS # 2703077
24 Vita Road, Totowa
Originally listed at $479,000, currently $439,000. 89 days on market. House is vacant.
Remarks: THIS HOME HAS GREAT POTENTIAL AND HAS BEEN DRASTICALLY REDUCED IN PRICE. OWNER WANTS QUICK SALE AND SAID PRESENT ALL OFFERS. OTHER HOMES IN DEVELOPMENT HAVE SOLD HIGHER THAN ASKING PRICE SO THERE IS OPPORTUNITY HERE FOR TERRIFIC DEAL.
Just an anecdote.
My wife and I went to look at this house in West Caldwell in ’05.
Original MLS was 2088209 (128 Central Ave).
It sold for $425,000. Tax records have the sales price at $439,500 (cash-back perhaps).
I believe the home is currently in pre-foreclosure and is a short-sale.
Listed as:
MLS# 2299823
Originally listed at: $480,000
Current listed at: $409,000
DOM: 281
(it’s in attorney review).
2005 Price: $429,000
2007 Price: $409,000
We’ll see where she closes if the contract doesn’t fall through.
Who said prices aren’t falling?
jb
Seeing *isn’t* believing…
“Wilson tells the story of an agent with a 19th-century Santa Fe, N.M., house that he wanted to make look more modern in photos. Doing so meant erasing the power lines and some bushes, and “straightening up” the adobe wall in the backyard. The photo was put on the Web site. Soon after, a prospective buyer from New Jersey wired $2 million into an escrow account with the intention to buy. He flew to Santa Fe, rented a limo and drove to the house, photo printout in hand.
“When he walked into the back yard, he looked at the utility lines, then at the photo; looked at the adobe wall, then back at the photo,” Wilson says. “The guy was British and typically very civilized, but he got pretty nasty right then in the backyard.”
The millionaire filed a complaint, and the agent almost got his license revoked.
Wilson suggests that sellers and their agents not try to make the house look too pretty or too good. ”
http://realestate.msn.com/selling/Article_bankrate.aspx?cp-documentid=4697254>1=9323
Just in case you were wondering where these all-time greats have gone:
http://www.wwe.com/superstars/wherearetheynow/
#169 awaiting moderation!
Lowball is one one of my favorite things you do, Grim! Thank you!
700 Grove, I have a friend who is selling her overpriced NYC condo that her parents bought her about 5 years ago to buy there for like 600K.
And She actually works on wall street, does not make the big $$ though. Like 80K-100K a year. But her mortgage will be tiny since shes putting at least half down.
Shes not really the wall street type ( thank god ) and I think she wants out so I was making some suggestions.
I made some comments about “wow how much inventory is coming online over there”
How did it do with the floods, because they pushed back her closing twice, giving her an out.
Manhattan place is paid off, provides stability since no loans. Give her job options. ( Which is my deal, I want security not being rich, knowing I wont be a FHB like my parents in the early 90’s )
Take the money, invest it well, downgrade in brooklyn. Heck come up by me and buy a top floor 1 bedroom for 100-120K. Take 5% of the difference for the rest of your life.
Any comments?
Par (147)-
Chill. Two more years, and things will turn again. As long as you’re not a flipper, you’ll be OK.
McRenter (163)-
Move.
McRent (163)-
“…an annual ritual of oh crap, the lease is up, what do I do?”
D’ya think this is one of those reasons wives and parents are so pushy about owning vs. renting?
Small hint: it is.
Chill. Two more years, and things will turn again.
Turn up or down?
jb
Chris Christie is on PBS- Channel 13 right now. Answering questions on Bryant & Gov-Carla Katz.
He’s one of the few reasons for hope we have here.
Grim (176)-
It’ll turn the opposite of what everyone thinks will happen.
Who do you think paid for her ‘boken condo?
jb
I asked my agent to give me recent sales data and the selling prices were still very high (last year). I tried to check it myself but the taxrecords.com did not have up-to-date data on Bridgewater township. Is there some other web site that I can try? Thanks in advance.
Bridewater township — zip = 08807
007
Did anyone see the cover of the “Weekend Journal” section of today’s “Wall Street Journal”? There’s an article about Gen Rx and Gen ‘Why’ and how they need constant ego-boosting approval and praise. I don’t know if this one goes under comedy or tragedy. It is a must read.
“Chill. Two more years, and things will turn again.”
I agree, we may have stabilization and then, BAM. Some additional bad news, maybe some capitulation, will turn prices lower. Another leg down, probably more pronounced, of this multi year decline will be established. During this time frame, the NAR will continue to spew their rhetoric. There will be more bottoms during this time frame than DJAIS on a busy summer weekend.
Par [153],
That 3 bedroom in Livingston; in the 400k range?
BC Bob Says:
April 20th, 2007 at 5:01 pm
“Don’t know the area. I’m sure it is not on a “desirable” street. However, here is a starter in Westfield, motivated seller, asking 434k.”
This has been on the market well over a year, with incremental price declines. Facing North Ave. w/ the commuter train line off your backyard. One bath.
So far no takers, I guess.
A lot of the stale stuff is finally moving this spring from what I can see. Don’t think we’re seeing a spring massacre in Westfield. There may be price concessions but they’re maybe 10% off or less, I’d guess. I actually think there is a little blip up going on now, and it’s possible the bottom is in, or it could be a dead cat bounce, sucker rally. We’ll see.
Well obviously I misunderstood the Brad and Muffy question, hence my very wrong answer, but I would like to redeem my self by answering this question
Little Miss Muffy, and her Brad Hubby, thowing their savings away.
Along came a realtor [add punchline here]
Little Miss Muffy, and Her Brad Hubby, throwing their savings away.
Along came a realtor, A rhyming realtor,and she will save the day!
They’ll say “We want to buy this house”
And She’ll say “what are you nuts”?
This house is priced way too high
Let’s Lowball, ” I’ve got the guts”
But I don’t know how this story will end
Cause these people obviously just want to spend!
KL
From the AP:
State bars two more subprime lenders
New Jersey banking regulators on Friday ordered two more subprime lenders to stop doing business in the state.
LoanCity Inc., based in San Jose, Calif., and Atlanta-based SouthStar Funding LLC., have been ordered to immediately stop taking loan applications, stop closing loans they are unable to fund and present evidence to the state to show why their licenses should not be revoked.
The department also plans to examine the finances of another 15 to 20 mortgage companies, primarily those work in the subprime market, which generally service those with less-than-perfect credit, said Jim Gardner, a spokesman for the department.
…
The state banking department learned that LoanCity and SouthStar lost financial backing and aren’t able fulfill existing loan obligations already in process.
The department is trying to determine how many loan applicants have been affected.
5 dumbest renovation fads
A remodeling trend may look good on paper, but it may not make your home more livable – or more valuable. These five alternatives from Money Magazine will.
http://tinyurl.com/3xux83
Stick to renting:
“”This year is the first time since 2000 that rent increases have kept pace with general consumer price inflation,” Willett said. “Furthermore, since home prices have climbed so astoundingly in the past few years, the savings between the cost to rent an apartment versus buy a house is tremendously greater than it was a the start of the decade.””
http://biz.yahoo.com/weekend/apartmentdeal_1.html
JB-179
Was that a response to my comment? I have work from 12 to 10 so i’ll check back later for responses.
If so: She has to sell the NYC midtown place to get the money for this one. But she wants to get into new place and then sell old place. I think…
I am trying to pick some comments/questions to put the seed of “wow tying up 500K-600K in a place where alot of similar stuff is on the market and is not next to the path train tracks” in her head.
I personally love Hoboken, Vito’s, Benny’s, 2AM Path train rides home. But it was crazy expensive 3-4 years ago and it’s still crazy now. I liked Bayonne better since it was ( not sure haven’t been back ) working class and low attitude versus Bergen county and especially my area which is major high attitude.
D #169
Reminds of a listing in Ridgewood where they removed Valley Hospital from the background.
Steilen Road, Ridgewood, NJ
Rich #190
Is that what that weird space is next to the house? What an *interesting* sky! *lol*
190 Rich NNJ
Thats one tiny little house for 700K. I want a house that small for me, I just am not paying 5-6 grand a month for it.
If I was an MD or married and us both being APN’s so we had 200K combined income it could be nice and a quick commute.
There are 3 abandoned houses across from 360 Essex a block away from Hackensack hosptial that scream teardown, 2 4 families or one 16 unit building and rent to the hosptial employees.
#169:
“Many, such as Vince Malta, a real estate agent in San Francisco and the past president of the California Association of Realtors, don’t understand what the fuss is about.”
So… it’s just marketing, so it’s ok to misrepresent the house?
#178 Clot: what is your take on what happens in the next 2 year, prices up, down?
Are you still expecting a dismal Spring selling season?
Chi,
I read Whitney’s piece. My bewilderment resulted in a 2nd reading. I never stated that intelligence was my fortay. After all, how does one measure the intelligence of a Yankee fan, rooming with 3 die-hard Sawk fans, 5 miles from the shadow of the green monster?
No need to dissect the article. It was pulled. That said, there may have been many interpretations of this article. You could ask 5 different people their take, the result may have been 5 completely diverse views. Isn’t this the essence of the blog, forcing individuals to ask questions. The upshot of this article was the potential for a stimulating, entertaining debate. Possibly, for me, the most entertaining since our lumber bull and chart class with the moderator.
Furthermore, there was an education aspect to this article. It actually contained hard core #’s pertaining to the % of “risk free” conventional mortgages compared to arm’s, i/o’s, piggybacks, etc… In essence, the casual visitor to this site may have been the recipient of a windfall of information. Suppose the casual visitor is in the process of purchasing a property? Subsequently, the article may induce them to research arm, piggyback,i/o, etc.. Consequently, there is the possibility that their *ss may be saved. If not, at least they may understand the future ramifications of their decision.
There are parts of this article that is pure slop. If his mortgage #’s reported harbors blatant, transparent fraud, I agree, trash it. In conjunction with this, the last paragraph may have been manufactured with unabridged malice. Nonethelesss, a great topic to discuss, imo. Your professionalism and integrity manifests itself in a clear and definitive manner. However, are the same professional rules regarding risk parameters and suitability, which are addressed with a client, appropriate for a blog?
Caveat Emptor.
151 Gary Locked In, not a chance. You cannot get blooed form a stoen, the last of the buyers are drying up, and the credit spigots are being turned off.
#146 Ad: That is what they said last time, and down they came. Please be patient.
Ok, so I’m dealing with the same crap of having to find a new apartment to rent until this market really does become realistic. My question is, does anyone know any good resources for finding apartments in Union county? Apartments.com stinks, and the app.com doesn’t is now using their engine. NJ.com doesn’t have too many listings for 3BR apts that are in the towns I like in Union and I’d rather not uproot the kid from where she’s going to school. Problem is, my landlord is an a** and a half. We agreed that I could use the side yard when we first discussed rent, I mistakenly didn’t put it in the contract, but I do have witnesses that heard the landlord say yes. Now, they being a pain about it. Feh! I need an honest landlord or to rent a whole house from top to bottom. Maybe a garden apartment would do if I could find a 3BR and have a way to BBQ also. :)
Any help on apts. in Union County would be appreciated. Thanks.
Looking for a second car and found a 2004 Volvo S40 1.9T 16k miles with Leather seats, Power everything, sunroof and heated seats. Its listed at 16,490 and edmunds.com value is 18k. Would like to know a good starting price for negotiation. Willing to pay upto 14,500 out the door.
Thanks
VH
“Subprime market in UK ‘has parallels with US'”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/38a15288-efa6-11db-a64e-000b5df10621.html
R Patrick,
re:flooding
It was kind of bad around me. Walking down the street, the water went 6″ above my knees at various places.
re:700 Grove
Haven’t been inside, but it’s right next to the NJ Transit train tracks. Personally, I wouldn’t want to live there (at least on the lower floors facing the tracks) knowing that several times/hour there would be trains with hundreds of people zipping by and looking in, but maybe that’s just me. It’s also right next to one of the main roadways into/out of Hoboken, so traffic tends to be horrendous during rush hour. Based upon craigslist postings, there seems to be a fair amount of “investors” there. There’s very limited retail in the area, although there is the A&P shopping plaza on the other side of the tracks. But none of the smaller mom and pop stuff that I find adds charm to the city. Might be OK if she got pre-construction pricing and she’s got her heart set on the place, but I wouldn’t buy at current “market” rates.
pricesstillskyhigh,
Just a word of caution. Volvo’s are notorious for high maintenance costs.
bbb (196),
I used to think so, not anymore. Bergen, Morris, sections of Passaic and Essex are all prime borrowers with incomes to match apparently. Stagnant prices? Maybe but definitely not dropping with any significance. It’s been two years since the peak and I don’t see the decline. I see these listings sent to me every day. I don’t see the prices dropping.
http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9033348
For anyone looking for some definitions and easy-to-read explanation of credit derivatives.
Also good to read this article, then read the black swan article on bloomberg from yesterday or the day before.
Maybe the black swan today IS the false sense of security.
Sorry, JB, I used another x*rated term in at 1:47.
#203 gary: last time around peak was 88/89, I think this time around the consensus here was the peak was late 05, with many saying 06. Lst time around the big price declines were 91 through 94.
So now we are only in 07. Another 18 mths to 2 years should do it, 2008,2009.
As far as big incomes in those counties, that is in my opinion a myth. Look at the median incomes in Bergen Co towns, not really that high, even less in Passaic. You have to be patient. ANd lets not forget how fisically sick our state is.
If you think that after all the recklessness we have had in the real estate market, that this is all going to end quietly (soft landing), I believe you are mistaken. Patience, I know it is hard, but it is rewarded.
D #169
Reminds of a listing in Ridgewood where they removed Valley Hospital from the background.
Steilen Road, Ridgewood, NJ
I’m sorry, but editing those pictures to blantantly remove a defect is misrepresentation in my book. It’s one thing to simply not post the image, it’s completely another when you modify an image to remove the surrounding buildings.
jb
#199, be careful with Volvos…anything European means a fun ride and expensive repairs.
If you don’t care about the brand too much, you might have better luck with the Mazda 3. I believe the Mazda 3 and Volvo S40 share the same chassis.
#202 & #209, Thanks for your advice. Having second thoughts about it now. Its a compact whereas i am looking for a midsize.
RE: Realtors doctoring listing photos
It seems a rampant trend is to PhotoShop in a deep blue sky with fluffy clouds.
To wit:
http://newmls.gsmls.com/media/getImage.do?mlnum=2312714&num=0&res=highres&imgcnt=10
More blue sky PhotoShop fun:
http://newmls.gsmls.com/media/getImage.do?mlnum=2369036&num=0&res=highres&imgcnt=10
And more blue sky PhotoShop action:
http://newmls.gsmls.com/media/getImage.do?mlnum=2362070&num=0&res=highres&imgcnt=10
A bit overboard on this blue sky PhotoShop treatment:
http://newmls.gsmls.com/media/getImage.do?mlnum=2353709&num=0&res=highres&imgcnt=10
burst (194)-
Yeah, I think we’re looking at two more years of dive, then we’ll be around 48 months of correction. The average post-WWII Northeast corridor RE down runs just shy of 5 years, so if I were a bottom-caller (which I assuredly am not), I’d be thinking that could be it.
From what I’ve seen over the past week, there will be no Spring market (just like last year). The “gotta-moves” pulled the trigger in Jan, Feb and March. The rest of this year looks to be more decline. Inventory growing, sales decelerating.
I remain of the same opinion I came into this year with: it is a market of opportunity for SOME buyers (those with a 3 years + expectation of occupancy or buyers not needing to finance with exotica) and SOME sellers (those with a large amount of equity who will preserve as much of that as possible by selling as quickly as possible).
Thought this was interesting, this is from a Q and A session with A Massachusetts NRA. Read it carefully.
chd__Guest: Hi Doug, I feel that there is a fundamental flaw in the costs of housing in the Boston Metro area. I’ve been told that a rule of thumb for the cost of a house you should buy should be around 3 times your gross annual salary. That being said, even a family that makes $100k, well above the median, could only buy a $300k house. There are very few houses in the area under 300k, and many more people make less that 100k per family. What do you think?
Doug_Azarian: Hi, It has typically been the case that the debt service related to your home should be 26 to 33% of your income. Many lenders then want to make sure that any additional debt you have does not exceed 38 to 40% of your income. Therefore a $100,000 income would result in a monthly income of about $8300 and a mortgage payment of about $2750 a month. Depending on how much someone has to put down this should cover a mortgage of $300k or more with todays interest rates
Re: #161
Gary,
Ok…Ok. I hear you. Seems like even the NAR is forecasing a drop in resale prices this year. So patience should pay off…
http://209.85.165.104/search?q=cache:JPB9q5ue064J:www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/files/currentforecast.pdf/%24FILE/currentforecast.pdf+nar+forecast&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=2&gl=us
Clotpoll (173),
Not a flipper…definately bought with the intention to live here ’till the end…maybe expand a little in 10-15 years.
Thanks for the positive reinforcement.
JB (176),
Thanks! Jus when I was starting to feel better. No matter, lots of time to sit…
BC Bob (183),
yep. a few more like that too. They seem to be getting snapped up…mostly a bit under asking.
uh…correction. listed at $489,000. Won’t know final price until closing. however, similar homes have sold recently between $400 and $450,000. Sellers accepting well under asking…I think they intentionally overpriced by 5-10% to give buyers a sense of a “deal”. However, if you plan to stay there for the next 30 years…Livingston isn’t bad!
#158 – New to posting but I read this blog quite often. I live on the “not so desirable” street in Westfield. The $400,000 barrier was broken at least two years ago but not by me. I doubt you could get a home on North for under $400K now. The train can be loud and frequent but personally I needed a quicker commute without the Westfield parking hassles.
That house has been on the market for about a year. Their asking price was over $500,000. They have been holding at $434,000 for awhile. Obviously I am quite interested in this sale since it is similiar to my home. Tough sales on North Ave. lately. Houses were flying off the market in 2005. Lesson learned – don’t be greedy. They should have listed it at $450,000 back in the spring of 2006.
#215 Thanks Clot, and when its over, what % off of 05 prices (assuming that was the peak) would we be looking at in 08/09
Geeze, SFP at 222, how come you never post?
I thought JB was making that sh*t up about some people reading but not posting. ;)
You took that backhand swipe at your street pretty well, by the way. You’re not Richard, right?
Can anyone tell me the street address of
GSMLS.COM #2398054? I believe it is a relatively new listing because I don’t recall seeing this on GSMLS.COM before…
Also, is GSMLS.COM # 2377477 still under contract?
Thanks!
2377477 still under contract
2398054 72 Kensington
KL
rhyming,
thanks!
Really late response to post #28:
I think pop psychology has distorted the concept of self-esteem to the point that most people really don’t understand what it means anymore. Healthy Self-esteem refers to an internalized experience of oneself as “good enough without devaluing nor over-idealizing oneself. A corollary to this is that to have healthy self-esteem, a person must be able to consciously acknowledge their strengths as well as their weaknesses and allow the two to peacefully coexist. In short, healthy self-esteem requires an internalized realistic view of oneself that remains stable when under stress.
This concept seems to often be misinterpreted as to always give children praise in what they do. This is incorrect. Children can not develop a healthy self-esteem if they are never or rarely told that they need to improve/grow in certain areas. Positive needs to balanced with negative, given the child’s capacity to tolerate criticism. Parents who consistently praise their children regardless of their accomplishments will have children with poor self-esteem as will parents who never acknowledge the positive in their children, where nothing is ever good enough.
A couple of people have posted that families/parents have viewed their child’s holding of a summer job as a sign that that others will think the family is poor (wow! has it become this bad???). This suggests that these children are protecting the narcissism of their parents and retarding their own development in the process. This would not be unusual, though still tragic.
RTB,
That reminds me of a New York magazine article I read recently about praise. It is a great article for anyone with kids of any age in their life.
http://nymag.com/news/features/27840/
How Not to Talk to Your Kids
The Inverse Power of Praise.
“Dweck sent four female research assistants into New York fifth-grade classrooms. The researchers would take a single child out of the classroom for a nonverbal IQ test consisting of a series of puzzles—puzzles easy enough that all the children would do fairly well. Once the child finished the test, the researchers told each student his score, then gave him a single line of praise. Randomly divided into groups, some were praised for their intelligence. They were told, “You must be smart at this.” Other students were praised for their effort: “You must have worked really hard.”
Why just a single line of praise? “We wanted to see how sensitive children were,” Dweck explained. “We had a hunch that one line might be enough to see an effect.”
Then the students were given a choice of test for the second round. One choice was a test that would be more difficult than the first, but the researchers told the kids that they’d learn a lot from attempting the puzzles. The other choice, Dweck’s team explained, was an easy test, just like the first. Of those praised for their effort, 90 percent chose the harder set of puzzles. Of those praised for their intelligence, a majority chose the easy test. The “smart” kids took the cop-out. “
Limbering up for the 10 mile MS walk.
On a gorgeous Sunday morning, my thoughts and prayers go out the 32 victims, families, friends and the entire Hokie community.
God Bless.
VT Bob
Another week, another large jump in inventory in NJ, we are 1K units away from last year high of 91K. Does anyone want to buy a house in NJ?
JB,
I like the new edition of lowball, are you going to produce a highball as well? Just to be fair.
Post #186
Normally a lurker but had to comment on our genius state. South Star Funding SHUT DOWN 4/2/07 on their own. Thank god our dedicated state workers are on the ball.
burst (223)-
Gee, you’re really taxing my crystal ball! So much of where we end up really depends on whether the Fed decides to ignore inflationary pressures to attempt to support the housing market.
50-75 bps of rate cut this year might stimulate some activity…although the prices paid could be: a) a serious bout of inflation, and b) a massive selloff on maturities of 10 yrs+ that would actually send mortgage rates upward and further depress housing.
Anyway, I’ll stop hedging. I think- in the end- we’re looking at 25% off ’05 highs for all SF housing in NJ and 35% off for condoshacks (is this the original BOOYAH prediction?).
Scanned through the Real Estate section of the Ledger this morning. As usual, prices are as laughable as ever. How many do you think are on the sidelines waiting to get in? Anything that remotely looks like a bargain gets snapped up. I’ll say it one more time: the New York/New Jerky area is exempt, it is different here. This realization pains me as much as it pains you.
My wife says be happy with what you got and for the life you have. Perhaps she’s right, I have to separate the emotion of it all. Friends of ours who’ve been living in their townhouse for 10 years now have lost out on 2 bidding wars in the last 6 months. One in Fairfield and one in Wayne. What bubble….
Off real estate topics, and a question for elementary teacher(s). I know you’re here, so pony up.
My kindergartener’s teacher taught the kids solid shapes last week. Can a solid cone shape be stacked, or not? Teacher marked homework incorrect, when child indicated solid cone cannot be stacked. Teach says it can. Does stacking mean building a tower, or simply mean putting two flat sides together?
Thanks.
And you wise guys ready to make jokes about my sub-kindergarten math skills…go ahead, today, I feel like I have that health sense of self-esteem described by RoadTripBoy.
Tomorrow, maybe I’ll shrivel up and hide like an Rx-er.
Pat,
You will soon be longing for the days of these simple school problems. If as a child I thought going to school was difficult,frustrating and stress inducing. As a parent dealing with school I would multipy that feeling by 100 and sometimes more.
KL
Pat (236)-
Here’s what I know: the sharp end of that cone can be used as a weapon…or as a probe, to stick up the a$$ of the NEA/liberal weenie teacher who would ask a kindergartner such a confusing and irrelevant question.
Have a nice Sunday! Thanks for allowing me to vent some bile.
Feeling much better now.
Frank Says:
April 22nd, 2007 at 8:06 am
JB,I like the new edition of lowball, are you going to produce a highball as well? Just to be fair.
Frank: sorry….this blog is domiciled in a dry county
Can anyone provide the address and history for NJMLS# 2646482?
for clot:
http://www.nypost.com/seven/04222007/news/regionalnews/mcgs_gay_poster_boy_regionalnews_elizabeth_wolff.htm
JB,I like the new edition of lowball, are you going to produce a highball as well? Just to be fair.
Just open the Excel file linked and scroll to the bottom.
(or just use this one)
https://njrereport.com/files/Sales-Apr07a.xls
Or do you mean we should all get together for drinks again?
211-214
unrealtor,
good observation
“Jay Noriega and Tara Voss Noriega first tried to sell their Rochelle Park Cape Cod by themselves, asking $415,000. They got a couple of low offers, including one for $330,000,- and then listed the property for $404,000.”
“‘I’m asking a little bit less than what the peak price was, and I feel we can get it,’ said Voss Noriega.”
Way to ride the market down, greedy bagholder…
Hi Pat,
I’m sorry I didn’t answer your question in a previous thread, but when I saw it days had already passed. You were asking me why do I think poor-working class first generation immigrants seem unable to control their disaffected american-born or american-raised kids to prevent them from getting into gangs, etc. The answer: I don’t know. I think there are factors such as: these parents work menial jobs, two at a time frequently. If it’s a single mother (and I used to see tons of them coming for hearings of their arrested teenagers in Newark) she usually leaves the kids for the day with older siblings or a grandmother or neighbor. Also, I think the gangsta kids think their immigrant parents are out of the loop because they are obviously foreing, don’t speak much English, etc. All that makes them more difficult to control than others, I guess. Then there’s all those unknowns. For example, Salvadoreans had a reputation for being meek and docile 30 years ago, and they were routinely beat up by Mexicans. What did they do? Organize, meaning create the Mara Salvatrucha and the Mara 18. Right now those are the 2 most violent gangs in CA. The government’s answer to that has been to deport back to El Salvador tons of kids who have been raised but not born in the US with a country with a lot less police resources. Basically, Export a Gang. Result: San Salvador has now an index of gun related fatalitites that makes Newark look like Disneyland. Now, how and whay a meek and peaceful immigrant group turned into that? Difficult to say.
gary (235)
I agree with you. I see 2006 sold prices higher than 2005 sold. Inventory in wayne and (totowa, west paterson, little falls) in starter range less than 500,000( 3br) has not increased much since the beginning of the year. And there are still flippers out there buying and selling.
Gary,
RE corrections tend to take several years. I think over on CR they mention 5-7 years on average.
Also, the credit spigot that caused the massive inflation in prices is just now being turned off, so it will take some time for prices to decline.
The Case Shiller index for the NYC region just turned negative recently (last month or 2 I believe).
Pat,
Elementary mom. I hate questions like that & we get them on our homework, too.
I’d imagine the teacher’s book says they can be stacked, but I don’t see how more than one could be stacked on top of another block. You certainly can’t stack three cones on top of each other! Lots of times when teachers grade these math sheets, they go through them quickly & following the answer key. It’s annoying, but you can still have a great discussion or fun building & testing the theory with your little one.
Hth!
D, it’s not my little one I’m worried about. When we looked over her homework for her test tomorrow, she basically said, “Oh well, I just have to put down whatever my teacher says it is, that way it’s right, even if it’s wrong.” They learn the ropes fast.
It’s my husband I’m worried about. He’s getting appoplectic like Clot over it.
Clot, BTW, your response triggered a big, “YEP” over here. And this, “The man is correct! If you stick the sharp end into something (a scalp?), then you CAN stack another one on top…NOW I get this new math.”
grim,
If we see houses in the MLS where the asking prices have been reduced by a significant amount, do you want us to send you the MLS #’s as potential candidates for “lowball”?
If so, what’s your email address again?
MikeyMike,
SLD 80 HARRINGTON AVE $215,000 6/9/1986
SLD 80 HARRINGTON AVE $325,000 10/27/1999
ACT 80 HARRINGTON AVE $799,000 6/7/2006
PCH 80 HARRINGTON AVE $749,000 6/19/2006
PCH 80 HARRINGTON AVE $719,000 7/8/2006
W-U 80 HARRINGTON AVE $719,000 8/23/2006
ACT 80 HARRINGTON AVE $719,000 8/23/2006 (same agent & broker)
PCH 80 HARRINGTON AVE $679,000 9/6/2006
EXP 80 HARRINGTON AVE $679,000 12/8/2006
ACT 80 HARRINGTON AVE $627,888 12/9/2006 (new agent & broker)
PCH 80 HARRINGTON AVE $594,000 2/15/2007
EXT 80 HARRINGTON AVE $594,000 4/17/2007
PCH 80 HARRINGTON AVE $548,888 4/17/2007
Taxes $9,666
‘Upside Down’ Home Sellers Owe More Than They Get
By Nancy Trejos
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, April 20, 2007; A01
Jeffrey Taylor and his wife bought their dream home in Purcellville for $538,000 last August. Now they have to sell it because they are getting divorced and neither one can afford the mortgage alone.
The most they could get for it was $430,000. After paying all the real estate commissions and taxes, they will still owe the bank $118,000.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/19/AR2007041902924_pf.html
Thank you Rich in NNJ. I can almost smell the desperation.
Can anyone tell me the OLP and Original Listing Date for MLS#2379275?
Tks.
$499,000
2/26/2007
Hi, Could anybody with access to MLS post history and comps for the following coop
MLS# 2704288
31 Fieldstone Dr #B2
Hartsdale, NY
I would greatly appriciate information related to past prices, comparisons
From Bloomberg:
Growth Weakened as Homebuilding Slumped: U.S. Economy Preview
The U.S. economy expanded last quarter at the weakest pace in more than a year, depressed by the longest continuous homebuilding slump in a generation, economists forecast ahead of reports this week.
The Commerce Department will report April 27 that gross domestic product, the sum of all goods and services produced, grew at an annual rate of 1.8 percent in January through March, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. That compares with a 2.5 percent gain the previous quarter.
A gain in consumer spending offset declines in residential construction and business investment last quarter to keep the expansion going into a sixth year. Reports on housing and corporate spending for March may show a gain in momentum as the quarter ended, pointing to a pickup in growth.
“Housing will continue to be a major drag on the economy through the middle of this year and then it will lessen,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. “We will probably see growth come back up a little bit this quarter and in the second half of the year.”
Driving around today, show a different RE Agency sign. Looked up their website. Seems like discount MLS flat listing site.
http://www.assist2sell.com/
ChiFi (243)-
Another sign of the decline of Western civilization.
JB,
Thanks!
2:40 PM, open house blogging in real time:
1. Two visitors so far. Both look as though they were lost & needed directions. However, they appear to have signed in without using bogus names and contacts. Win! Funny…both prospects currently have their own homes on the market. No bites for either, though.
2. One visitor an hour leaves a lot of time for NBA playoffs and Food Network. Cavs/Wiz game is beyond awful…switched over & watched Nigella Lawson create a grease sludge by roasting a leg of pork flat in a pan, then accompanying it with about 10 lbs of cream-drenched potatoes and some English-looking dessert that involved flour, sugar and water; it came out looking like the culinary equivalent of a Nerf ball (probably just as tasty, too). However, Nigella is kinda hot…if you go for that English/kitchen wench kinda thing.
3. Lakers/Suns coming up next. This has gotta be good, or I’ll be passed out on the couch, drooling down my tie by 4:30.
Giada on Food Network has got to have the biggest head I’ve ever seen on a petite woman. I’ve got to study this more closely…
Clot,
You sound about as amused as I am writing a 15-17 page paper examining high stakes testing and NCLB through the educational philosophy of progressivism in which I begin to explain educators’ concerns with the standards-based, aka: essentialist, movement by exploring the beliefs of the progressivism philosophy and the differences and conflicts with testing.
What a way to spend a day (doctorate program, sigh)
Hey Clot
3:39 bloggin in real time during my open house -great idea! I myself prefer to have the discovery channel on if they have an HD tv of course. 2 visitors, one told me straight out, sorry can’t afford this, the other loved it, although he may not remember me in the morning. (-:
KL
Can’t take credit for this, but it is kind of funny.
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/316529453.html
The squeeze on Alt-A ……
http://forum.brokeroutpost.com/loans/forum/2/115213.htm
”
OMG Opteum Changed Guidelines.
I knew this wouldn’t last long.
They would do 660 FICO SIVA 100% 5/6 ARM like 7.25% or 6.75%
I currently have a loan with them, I hope they don’t screw it up.
According to thier new matrix my borrower now can only go 85%.
Well that sucks.
“
Gary at #235 – I agree with you. The town I want to buy in is still very overpriced. Starter homes are holding steady at the mid- to high-$400s for small capes or ranches that need $100K worth of updating. Things are not moving as quickly as they once were but sellers are obviously very patient because it seems that if they hold out long enough they don’t have to reduce their prices by more than 10%. Very discouraging indeed.
Kl and Clot,
Would you comment on the sale of homes in the $900k range ?
Hoboken/JC observations:
Was reading the Hoboken Reporter today, and I noticed an ad for Trump Plaza. The HEADLINE for the ad was “Trump Value: As Never Before”. When was Trump ever marketed as value?
Also, Toll is having a “New Home Expo & Gourmet Barbeque” next weekend for their Hoboken/JC properties. I recall they had something similar last summer during the summer dolldrums. Not sure if they had one in the spring last year as well.
Not sure if either one means anything, just struck me as odd.
Kl and Clot,
Would you comment on the sale of homes in the $900k range ?
You definitly have to ask clot for that one, I’m in a much lower priced market, to put it nicely..
KL
hobokenite Says:
April 22nd, 2007 at 6:43 pm
Hoboken/JC observations:
Hobo: Things are going just fine. The Street et al. are still lining the stalls with gold TP. Price appreciation? No, but don’t fool yourself into believing that things are slipping dramatically. You can actually draw a nice little parallel to broad NJ. The top drawer stuff is getting blitzkrieged, however, anything with a defect [e.g., old, outdated, bad location, lacking amnenities, stick skeleton structure] is going to get whacked, and keep getting whacked.
The attitude is that it is the Mnahattan money coming across the river to spend. If so, the big compromise to accept a NJ address. No other compromises are going to be accepted.
I’ve already seen the change with the nanny patrol [for stay-at-home moms???], valet/slave to park your car and bring in your groceries. Feh. Why does some 27 year old d-bag who parents co-signed his loan need a valet slave?
valet/slave to park your car and bring in your groceries.
Your kidding right? Please tell me kids my age are not that lazy?
CF,
I wasn’t thinking/implying that prices were slipping significantly. It just struck me as odd that Trump was being marketed as “Value” instead of “Luxury”. But maybe they’ve been selling it that way all along.
I was more wondering if the spring selling season for Toll/Trump was turning into a fizzle on the Gold Coast as well.
Zac (270)-
What sales?
Sorry…I’m still at my open house & the cat ripping at my face just woke me up. Food Network is re-running Nigella and her grease sludge again, and my cell phone has 27 messages on it. I suppose it’s my wife, checking to see if I’m dead. I may be.
‘Night, all!
Drove through Chester/Far Hills/Mendham area today to get a feel for the neighborhoods. Seemed like nice towns, although Far Hills seemed like a lonely place to raise kids (min 10 acre lots?). Any thoughts on these areas? Commute to NYC seems to be a stretch.
-P
I am about to put an offer on a house in Matawan that is listed for 419. My question is, where do I start with the offer. I am thinking 390 with seller paying closing the costs.. Am I coming in to low, the house has been on the market for around 50 days but is a really nice house and well priced. What do you guys / girls think?
Greg, before you put in an offer, have your agent send you a list of homes that closed in the last 3-4 years in your price range, in the town you’re interested in. (They can easily do this.)
Or, poke around Zillow.com or taxrecords.com, which provides prior sales information.
Then you’ll know if this house is a “good price.”
politely (277)-
Chester & Mendham are way more happening than Far Hills. The FH population is so small and spread out, your kids may not have any age-group peers within miles. And the “town” is nothing special.
However, FH is one of the most beautiful areas in the state; it’s hard not to like.
politely (277)-
BTW, Far Hills is on the Gladstone line. Not a bad train trip at all.
However, FH is one of the most beautiful areas in the state; it’s hard not to like.
The Far Hills/Mendham/Peapack area is one of my favorite places to get lost in. When I was a more competitive cyclist my typical Sunday would be a ride out to that area via the Great Swamp.
jb
James@#82: I agree about the bailouts. We didn’t buy a house until we were 40 because we just couldn’t afford it. Of course they didn’t have all that creative financing in 1995-1996, but they did have ARMs which I knew we didn’t want. We did put less than 20% down (10%) and paid PMI until our first refi, but we did all the math and made sure we could afford the payments.
In the mid-1980’s I lived through what renters now went through a few years ago, where I too was told “Now is the time to buy.” And many of those people who thought we were losers for renting ended up selling at a loss. One of them just recovered financially about 5 years ago.
And still, when we bought, mortage lenders were telling us “You can afford to take out more.” But we didn’t WANT to take out more. And we’ve been able to survive intermittent periods where we’ve only had one income.
Would I buy my house no? Hell, no. My POS cape (*grin*) isn’t a $400,000 house, not by any stretch of the imagination. (And especially not at the moment, with the basement carpet ripped out from being saturated in last weekend’s rain and the industrial tile underneath curling up at the edges and in various stages of being torn up as well.)
#235 Gary Its only different here, because you did not live through the last one, maybe you were too young, maybe you do not rememebr it. I do nto know, but to say it is different here,a nd cannto happen here when it has is just foolish on your part.
You are buying into the hype, and youa re killing your self over ot. Why?
#234 Clot Thanks as always for your insight.
Clotpoll Says:
April 23rd, 2007 at 7:24 am
politely (277)-BTW, Far Hills is on the Gladstone line. Not a bad train trip at all.
clot: you realtor slip is showing…..
Re #282. I agree! I’ve been biking out there a few times and it is beautiful. Another very scenic area is out by the Round Valley Reservoir (Oldwick, Mountainville, Stanton). NJ has a website for cyclists including several touring maps: http://tinyurl.com/2wkpja