From CNN/Money:
Major real estate forecasters are looking for prices to bounce along the bottom this year and next and fully recover by 2009.
“Once the correction from the boom works through, we’ll see slow, steady growth,” says Celia Chen, Economy.com’s director of housing economics, who expects annual price gains of between 2 percent and 4 percent by 2009.
…
Overall, her firm is predicting that the downturn that started in late 2005 will end up pushing median home prices down 8.7 percent nationwide by the time it ends in early 2008. The nationwide figures, of course, mask a great deal of local variation.Regions that saw the greatest price appreciation (and speculation) during the boom, such as Florida, Las Vegas, Phoenix and San Diego, are now taking the hardest hit – and will continue to do so until all the air is out of the bubble.
While Fiserv is forecasting flat prices nationwide over the next 12 months, the firm expects price drops of as much as 9 percent in half of the 50 biggest markets. Home prices in Las Vegas, down 5 percent over the past 12 months, may fall another 9 percent in the next year.
Miami real estate could see a similar slump. The housing market will also struggle in nonbubbly rust belt states such as Michigan and Ohio, chiefly because of the ongoing loss of manufacturing jobs.
But in parts of the South and West – especially areas that never enjoyed double-digit annual price gains – homes continue to appreciate.
Biggest gainers – and losers
Growth forecast is for April 2007 – April 2008 from Fiserv Lending Solutions.Allentown, Pa. -0.7%
Camden, N.J. -0.3%
(Burlington, Camden, Gloucester counties)
Edison, N.J. -3.2%
(Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Somserset counties)
Nassau/Suffolk, N.Y. -6%
Newark -2.4%
(Essex, Hunterdon, Morris, Sussex, Union counties)
New York City -3.9%
(If this is the NY/White Plains/Wayne MSAD, includes Bergen, Hudson, Passaic counties)
Philadelphia -0.6%.
Reading what’s going on in sites like thehousingbubbleblog.com, the numbers for CA, FL, AZ, and so on, seem awfully optimistic. I’m expecting at least a 20% drop in those markets and the worst they have is 8.9%.
Florida is an absolute train wreck.
Don’t give too much creedence to this report
But they said NYC real estate never goes down!
/sarcasm
If this has been the biggest real estate bubble in history, how can a price decline of only 2% or 3% be the bottom?
New Jersey to rescue struggling homeowners……New Jersey will launch a $30 million rescue program for residents struggling to pay adjustable-rate or interest-only mortgages, state officials announced.
Department of Community Affairs Commissioner Susan Bass Levin said Friday the new program will allow qualified homeowners to refinance into 40-year mortgage loans. The loans would come with an estimated 6.75 to 7.5 percent annual interest rate.
Levin said the New Jersey Housing and Mortgage Finance Agency would borrow the money to fund the program, and may expand the program later. Residents will not be able to borrow more than the value of their home, and they must be able to meet the monthly payments, Levin said.
The program would be fully paid by the borrowers over time and would not cost taxpayers any money, Levin said.
Agreed Talkhard! These people are selling bs. Unprecedented run up in prices requires unprecedented reversion to the mean. It may take 5-7 yrs but they’re going to fall. Btw, beautiful day today in Hoboken, for sale signs everywhere, didn’t see anybody going in any open houses.
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