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From the Worcester Telegram:
Housing crisis causing bleak economic future for Worcester
The New England Economic Partnership released a state-by-state economic forecast for New England on May 24. According to the forecast the Massachusetts housing market will continue to slump throughout this year and into the first half of 2008.
…
We should not be so optimistic for the local economies where the sub-prime mortgage fallout has hit the hardest. In such areas as Lowell, Brockton, Springfield and Worcester, the economic future could be bleak. Worcester, in particular, has been hit especially hard by the predatory loaning behavior of sub-prime mortgage firms.
…
The housing bust of 2005 is not unique to Worcester. The real estate crisis has hit many cities across the country. Contrary to popular belief the main culprit has not been the extension of credit to the “credit unworthy.” Rather, the main culprit in this crisis is exotic loans destined toward default. Data is beginning to reveal that it was not only, not even mainly, the credit unworthy taking out exotic mortgages. Rather many middle- and upper-middle-class people with good credit took out exotic mortgages. One problem seems to be a lack of understanding of the real estate market and the nature of interest rate movements. The main problem leading to the national housing crisis has been a lack of regulation, oversight and legislation that protect homebuyers from predatory mortgage companies.
Interesting look at downsizing in Florida.
For empty nesters, it’s too costly to downsize
Her house has four bedrooms and 3,000 square feet.
She has two grown daughters.
So the only family members taking advantage of Patricia Lewis’ Weston home are her three Irish setters.
Lewis, 59, and her husband, Joel, 64, have been talking about moving into a smaller home for roughly two years. Then they talk about what a smaller home would cost. And, more important, they talk about what moving would do to their property tax bill.
Lewis estimates that a three-bedroom townhome would leave plenty of space for her family. But at the home prices she’s seeing, the move would cost the Lewises an extra $2,500 in taxes — for a total tax bill of close to $9,000.
So — like other empty-nesters throughout Florida — they stay put, try to find use for all the extra space and wait to see what help they might get from the Legislature when the property tax session starts Tuesday.
…
The Lewises bought their home in 1999, before the real estate market exploded . The state’s Save Our Homes amendment prevents the home’s taxable value from increasing by more than 3 percent each year regardless of how much its actual value rises. This cap has helped longtime homeowners dodge the crippling property tax bills that have priced newer buyers out of the market.
But it also keeps empty-nesters stuck in oversized homes to avoid the substantial property-tax hit they’d take by buying a new place.
From Bloomberg:
New York State Subpoenas Vanderbilt Appraisal in Mortgage Probe
New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who is investigating whether mortgage brokers pressured appraisers to inflate property values, subpoenaed records from Vanderbilt Appraisal Company LLC.
Three appraisers and a mortgage broker have now said they received subpoenas from Cuomo. New York City-based appraiser Mitchell, Maxwell Jackson Inc. and First American Corp.’s eAppraiseIT LLC unit in Poway, California said they received subpoenas seeking information on mortgage brokers, lenders or real-estate agents who may have pressured them to boost values. Manhattan-based Vanderbilt didn’t say what Cuomo was seeking.
10Y yield sitting at 5.21% at 5:53am this morning, up sharply from yesterday.
From Bloomberg:
Treasuries Extend Slide, Pushing Yields to Near Highest in Year
U.S. Treasuries dropped, pushing 10- year yields to the highest in almost a year, on concern accelerating economic growth and inflation will encourage central banks to raise interest rates.
The benchmark 10-year note extended declines after slumping yesterday by the most in more than three years. Debt markets in the U.S., Europe and Asia have been sliding since New Zealand unexpectedly raised borrowing costs yesterday, stoking concern other central banks will follow.
“It’d be dangerous to get in now,” said Christian Zima, a fixed-income fund manager in Vienna at Raiffeisen KAG, which oversees the equivalent of $24 billion of bonds. “The yield levels are starting to look attractive but sentiment is bad. There are further rate hikes getting priced in.”
The yield on the 4 1/2 percent security due in May 2017 increased 8 basis points, or 0.08 percentage point, to 5.21 percent as of 10:54 a.m. in London, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. It breached 5 percent yesterday for the first time since August.
…
“There will be another selling wave,” Kornelius Purps, a fixed-income strategist at Unicredit Markets and Investment Banking, said in Munich. “Investors shouldn’t try to catch the falling knife. They’ll wait until it reaches the floor.”
Also from Bloomberg:
Barclays Says 10-Year Treasury Yield to Reach 5.4% by Year-End
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries may rise to a five-year high of 5.4 percent by year-end as unemployment falls and the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, according to Barclays Capital Plc.
The Fed may increase its target rate for the overnight lending rate between banks by a quarter of a percentage point in both the third and fourth quarters of this year, and again in the second quarter of 2008, U.K.-based Barclays said. That will push up the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to the highest since April 2002 and the two-year note to 5.42 percent, the most since December 2000, the bank said.
On Item #2,
I think in NJ its the same issue. I live in TWH and pay $6000 in taxes. On top of that I pay $2400 in maintenance. There are SFH’s that are twice the size as mine is but pay about $8000 in taxes, lesser then what I pay. I think TWH & Condos are unfairly paying higher share in Property taxes. I know its based on market price and tax percentage, but this logic basically says buy the biggest SFH house you can afford.
Also many folks on this board mentioned that Seniors may want to move into TWH or condos. I think that may be true for other reasons but definitely not for Property Taxes.
Touched 5.25..
I don’t have intraday data that goes back far enough. Is this a 5 year high?
jb
Wow saw this on another blog and it made me laugh. Also, saw on yahoo that Japan would pay $8k for a family with a thid child and 440k fo a family with a fifth. Too bad you get no interest rate over there.
Here’s just one case of “how dare they! they’re screwing it up for everyone” that’s playing out around the world today… Folks, there will be some ugly stuff during the meltdown. Be careful out there homesellers! Extra credit if you get the photo.
Ashburn, Va.: I’m so mad at my neighbor. I bought my new home here in Ashburn last summer and plan to sell it next year (after holding two years to avoid taxes) to make a nice return on my investment.
The problem is my neighbor is trying to sell his house (very similar to mine) right now and he keeps lowering his asking price. Each time he lowers his price, I see my potential profits next year getting squashed.
Doesn’t he realize he’s hurting the comps for all of his neighbors by doing this? I don’t think he is acting very “neighborly” by doing this. I want to say something to him and tell him he should stop putting his interests ahead of his neighbors.
Its people like him who are ruining the market for the rest of us. If he would just refuse to lower his price, we could maintain our comps and everyone would benefit. What can I do to stop him?
Kirstin Downey: Wow. Interesting question. There’s nothing you can do. It’s his house, of course. It’s frustrating, to be sure. One word of advice: Don’t resort to violence.
like the seller WANTS to take less than he can possibly get? this shows some people still think the SELLER gets to dictate what a house sells for…duh, clue, it’s the person with the money who sets the price
jeesh..can Americans get any dumber?
Seniors who sell, and move to a twh, really
are not going to save that much.
The way increases come, it becomes the same,
unless the single family they sold was
just so up their in price.
And the over 55 complexes,take a look at
the prices and then the taxes.
Are you kidding me, you can drop 10-15K
taxes on a townhome with no problem
From the APP:
Bank to foreclose on Kara development
Amboy National Bank plans to foreclose on Horizons at Birch Hill in Old Bridge in hopes of finding a partner who can finish the development, according to bank officials and documents filed earlier this week in state Superior Court.
The bank is seeking approval to use a sheriff’s sale to find a builder that will complete the 228-unit development. The project was stopped in its tracks when its builder, Kara Homes Inc., filed for bankruptcy last October.
“It’s Amboy’s intention to finish the project, and I think the plan is to find partners to finish it,” said Steven Lubetkin, a spokesman for Amboy. “That would be the goal.”
The filing is the latest attempt by Amboy to recover at least part of the $58 million that it was owed by Kara. The two sides last week reached an agreement in which Kara sold its interest in three developments — Crine West in Marlboro, Cottage Gate at Navesink in Middletown and Kara at Tradewinds in Sea Bright — for at least $11.3 million.
…
At a sheriff’s sale, buyers would have an opportunity to bid on Birch Hill. If buyers don’t emerge, Amboy could wind up owning the property and trying to find a builder to complete the project.
If I had millions of dollars, I would buy the house from the seller and then sell it for half of what I bought it for..just to tick her off!
“jeesh..can Americans get any dumber?”
Jeez, self-loathing much? While the questioner is a complete idiot, I hardly see why you need to slam the entire country’s intelligence as a result. And out of curiosity, which country in the world do you think has the smartest citizens? Are there any idiot-free places in the world? Methinks not.
Anyway I really just popped over here after a long time of not having visited to rejoice about the NYT articles regarding the lack of need for real estate agents. I just finished helping my sister buy a house in Morris County and far from helping, the agents on both sides were gigantic hindrances. It’s nice to see some data backing up my perception of them oftentimes being extraneous at best and costly at worst.
Michelle: It is the self-absorbed entitlement attitude that so many people in this country have. These are the people who can not take responsibility for their actions. Many of these people have young kids and are pretty much raising a new generation of spoiled, self-absorbed, instant gratification beings. The future looks bleak.
Michelle,
Do you know if that ran on the front page of the business section?
jb
Anywho…I haven’t checked the MLS in awhile, but yesterday searched for houses in the 0-$359,000 range with basements, gas heat, and garage for Bergen County towns. Pretty much found the same houses I saw a year ago on the market. Little bungalows in Fair Lawn, Elmwood Pk, etc. Looks like not many active listings in that price range still.
just to clarify so typo you only get $40k for fifht child (or I would go voer there to stud) andthe comment on there were from another blogger, not me. I do believe that media, gov’t and other are dumbing Americans. Even the helpful Broker that did the math for me on buying vs renting.
What happened this time was probably more greed then dumbnes. I was telling my boss that the real American dream was to have someone pay you to live in a house you culdn’t afford. Which is what happened for the lucky few
One City’s Home Sellers Do Better on Their Own
By JEFF BAILEY
Published: June 8, 2007
It sounds like the setup for a dull economist’s joke. Who gets the better deal: the cautious economist who sells his house through a real estate agent, or his risk-taking colleague who finds a buyer on his own?
But the question — debated by two Northwestern University economists who chose different methods to sell their homes — and the research it helped prompt are serious. And the answer will be of interest to anyone who has paused to consider whether paying a real estate agent’s commission, typically 5 to 6 percent of the sale price, is worth it.
The conclusion, in a study to be released today based on home-sales data from 1998 to 2004 in Madison, Wis., is that people in that city who sold their homes through real estate agents typically did not get a higher sale price than people who sold their homes themselves. When the agent’s commission is factored in, the for-sale-by-owner people came out ahead financially.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/08/business/08home.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
JB,
Based on monthly [closing] data, it would be a 5 year high.
6/06-5.245
4/02-5.46
Bad moon is rising.
Sorry James – I don’t know as I read the online version. It was the top story in the Business section of the daily NYT email but I don’t know if that exactly correlates to the print edition.
Will the market force the fed to move?
Weren’t we just talking about cronies and raises?
Zazzali laments low judge pay
Low wages are driving judges from the bench, state Chief Justice James Zazzali said Thursday during a lively question-and-answer session with the public at Bergen Community College, according to a report in the Record.
“It’s a disgrace,” said Zazzali. “Judges are leaving the bench; that hurts judges, but it also hurts the public. It’s an absolutely abysmal situation.”
Zazzali, a former state attorney general, reaches the mandatory retirement age on June 17. The chief justice’s salary is $164,250; associate justices earn $158,500.
renter (16)-
Greed IS stupidity.
BC (20)-
I think not. FFR at 5.25% and the rest of the yield curve’s normalization is- in itself- a positive.
I think Bernanke, et al are still concerned enough about housing to keep hands off for the near future. As it is, we’re probably looking at 6.75-7% on 30-year mortgages by the end of the year.
I know this isn’t info for your neck of the woods but i’ll throw it up anyways…
I am down here in the most bubbly areas of Florida,Port Charlotte/North Port and i work in Sarasota.
One of the guys i work with has been buying rentals in North Port since ’84. He has 17 SFH. He has not bought anything since ’02. He just told me today he wrote a check for 300k and bought 3 more SFH’s this week. All 3 were new construction,never lived in. Originally on the market for approx 180k.
The owner had used equity from a previous sale to finance/build all three. He just wanted out of the market asap/did not want to try and be a landlord…
The guy who purchased the houses works for our company part time and keeps his rentals up when not here. He also mentioned cleaning up the outsides yesterday and the neighbors damn near having a fit when he told em what he bought for!!!
The house on the end of my street in Port Charlotte foreclosed in Jan06. The lady has been living rent free in exchange for upkeep since. She only pays utilities. Zero offers on a 3 year old place with a note of 129k. These house were in the 200-250k range at the top. I noticed a u-haul Wed out front. I stopped by and asked what was up. She informed me she was leaving to live with her daughter to save money ??? But the best part…The place still has NOT sold…
God it’s gonna get freakin ugly…(Yes i am cash heavy)…
Chris
I came from the Madison Wi area a year ago. I got my buyer through FSBO with an offer in 60 days. The because the company here offered relo, I had to give the sale to an agent. No skin off my nose since the company payed me the full offer and absorbed closing and moving costs. The agent was happy too, of course, big paychack for almost no work.
FSBO there is unlike most other places, I think. It is very strong and has a lot of activity.
Real-Estate news is getting old.
Retail investors have pretty much stayed out of the current stock bull market. The current stock bull market has been driven mostly by pension/institutional money.
Soon retail investors John and Jane Doe will be disappointed at the real-estate market and will want to get *back into stocks* cause that’s the *real-deal*. Real-Estate investment is so yesterday.
When the new *realtors* becomes day-traders again, I’ll know it is time to to lock some stock market profits.
JB Tht article starts ont eh front page of NYT, and finishes up in the business section.
I would love to see the Fed step in and rasie rates in between meeeting, like thay have done in the past
#23 Clot See I am off the exact opinion, as a former short term fixed income (munis) I think Bernake wants the housing market to continue to correct, he is playing the Greenspan of old.
Painful as the correction will be for some or many people etc, the only way to clean up markets once they are out of control, is to bleed the excess out.
It is the only way to restore health to a particular market that has disconnected from the fundamentals (he should have continued tightening last year, but that is another story).
Thei whole soft landing thing is a bunch of crap, there never has been one, and there never will be one in a (semi) capitalist system.
That is why I was convinced that if he is serious about the position he holds and the institutions credibility, ( as much as I did admire Greenspan in the past, I believe he ssumbled in the end) he would not cut rates this year,and that he would raise rates before he cut them.
U.S. Growth Outlook Improves, Rate Cut Less Likely
U.S. economic growth will pick up through the end of this year, making it unlikely the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates before 2008, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News this month….Economists now expect Fed policy makers to delay trimming interest rates until next year… leave its benchmark overnight lending rate at 5.25 percent until the second quarter of 2008
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeS2ERu4GYt4&refer=home
3b,
Ben should just get it over with and raise the rate 50 basis points.
#3B Says:
“(he should have continued tightening last year, but that is another story).”
I agree completely here. I was in the 5.5 fed funds rate camp given the real-world inflation number and not the feds hedonistic number excluding energy and food.
I think Bernkanke was more concerned about the housing market causing a recession than the inflation numbers.
Now that the rest of the economy is chugging along at a decent pace, I don’t think we will see any rate cuts in the near future. And since the long end is catching up to the fed funds rate, additional increases may not be required give the milder inflation readings and receding gas prices.
To me the big unknown is how the consumer will hold up in the new housing environment.
Some news from our southern neighbor.
Number Of Delaware Foreclosures Rises
With three weeks still left in the fiscal year, the number of foreclosure filings in all three counties in Delaware have already reached record highs.
The statewide total through 11 months ending in May hit 2,644.
At a conference Thursday in Wilmington, a policy director for the Philadelphia-based Reinvestment Fund predicted the numbers will get worse.
Ira Goldstein said it is tricky to estimate when conditions will improve. He said too many loans were extended in 2006 to people with shaky credit and small down payments. He says home ownership was pushed too far, too fast.
Delaware Bank Commissioner Robert Glen says his office will pass new regulations to hold the state’s mortgage brokers and lenders accountable for informing borrowers of the risks of subprime loans.
Mortgage giant Freddie Mac said 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.53% this week, up sharply from 6.42% last week and the highest in 10 months.
Rates on 15-year, fixed-rate mortgages, a popular choice for refinancing, rose to 6.22%, up from 6.12% last week. Five-year adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 6.24%, up from 6.19%. One-year adjustable mortgages rose to 5.65%, up from 5.57% last week.
These rates do not include add-on fees known as points. Thirty-year and 15-year mortgages each carried a nationwide average fee of 0.4 of a point.
Five-year adjustable mortgages carried a fee of 0.6 of a point while one-year ARMs had a fee of 0.7 of a point.
Did anyone else get a flood of ‘price reduced’ listings from their Realtor this morning? I am just now seeing asking prices that are 10-15% more than peak prices rather than the usual 15-20% more than peak.
“I think Bernanke, et al are still concerned enough about housing to keep hands off for the near future”
Clot,
Yes. However, world markets may dictate otherwise. We have done a fantastic job of exporting our monetary policy to those nations pegged to the dollar. Their excessive printing has caused massive inflation, Gulf States. As they start/continue to move away from the dollar, our rates will continue to be affected. S*it position to be in, someone else calling the shots.
Given the behavior of the 30y FRM in response to the recent 10y moves, if the 10y stays at current levels, the 30y FRM will likely move into the 6.6-6.7% range in the upcoming weeks (based on the Freddie PMMS).
jb
>>Touched 5.25
this is a short-term panic. markets just don’t move that quickly. once the dust settles i expect to see the 10-year around 5.10 by end of year followed by some increase say 25-30 bps after the Fed raises rates next year. to me this translates to sub but near 7% 30-year fixed rates for good FICO borrowers through 2008. yes i do have a crystal ball ;)
From USA Today:
Many investors feel like running away from homes
Buying real estate seemed a no-brainer five years ago. Cheap loans were easy to get. Home prices were soaring. Stocks were dead money.
How things have changed.
For-sale signs are sitting ignored in some cities. Interest rates on exotic loans are doubling. Insurance premiums and property taxes are skyrocketing. Wannabe real estate tycoons stuck with properties they can’t sell have been turned into landlords, forced to fix toilets and take tenant calls in the middle of the night. Many are “under water” — owing more on the mortgage than they could get by selling.
Meanwhile, stock investors have been celebrating again as broad market indexes march to new highs. And that is prompting some real estate investors to make the switch back to stocks. Real estate “isn’t as lucrative as it used to be,” says Jack Patterson, a financial adviser in Coral Gables, Fla., who has been helping clients sell real estate and buy stocks.
It’s a complete flip-flop from 2002, when investors tired of the bear market ravaging Wall Street cashed in their stocks and bought homes and investment property. People doing that were the subject of a USA TODAY cover story in December 2002.
…
Lex Latkovski saw this shift early and made his move last year. He had been a big real estate investor. Shortly after moving to Phoenix in 1996 for a consulting job, Latkovski, 38, bought a house in the area for $87,000, putting down just $5,000. As home prices leapt, Latkovski quadrupled his bet, buying three more homes on the same street as investments. The prices on the homes skyrocketed.
Rather than ride the real estate wave until it crashed on the jetty, Latkovski bailed out. He sold three of the homes last year, pocketed a 60-fold gain and moved the money into the stock market. Seeing real estate as played out, he’s bought exchange-traded funds and mutual funds.
China Goes on the Offensive, Singles Out US Products That Don’t ‘Meet Sanitary Standards’
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070608/china_tainted_food.html?.v=4
Inspectors in the ports of Ningbo and Shenzhen found bacteria and sulfur dioxide in products shipped by three American companies, the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine said.
“The products failed to meet the sanitary standards of China,” the agency said
Insert Big Fat Disclaimer Here
>>Bad moon is rising.
Not
>>Will the market force the fed to move?
Nope. You’re all overreacting just like the market.
>>As it is, we’re probably looking at 6.75-7% on 30-year mortgages by the end of the year.
nope too high. 6.5% is probably where they’ll sit but that depends on FICO.
bear,
I almost spit my coffee out when I read that this morning. Priceless!
jb
“yes i do have a crystal ball ;)”
Richard,
I’m glad you do. If that’s the case why the hell did you buy RE in 2006? If I had a crystal ball, I would be taking acting lessons right now with Make.
There’s an article on MSNBC on “Flip this house” and the most recent season.
“Leccima, 36, presented himself as a successful real estate investor during the 2006 season of the cable show, which depicted him buying, refurbishing and reselling Atlanta-area homes for profits of $77,000 and more. But Leccima doesn’t have a real estate license — it was revoked by the Georgia Real Estate Commission in 2005, with the panel ruling he “does not bear a good reputation for honesty, trustworthiness, integrity, and competence.” Now he’s under investigation by the Georgia Secretary of State’s office for securities fraud.”
Why wouldn’t A&E even bother to verify he was licensed? Apparently he also put up “sold” signs then that was not the case and he always had friend come up and act like they loved the work he did.
“Flip this house” is entertainment, it is not a PBS documentary, news show, or public service announcement.
Shame on anyone that took those shows for anything more than that. I wouldn’t be very surprised if we found out that all of those television shows were nothing but grand fabrications and puffery.
jb
Clotpoll Says:
June 8th, 2007 at 7:54 am
renter (16)-
Greed IS stupidity.
Coltpoll – have to distinguish between the two.
To quote GG from Wall Street – “greed is good”
To give an example and to prove I’m in the game somewhat (but my typos lately are making me look stupid), I tell the story of a private reit I was in that was partnered with wall street smart money.
We were buying a private comm re company in beantown. The talks were stalled when we thought their stuff was worth $500m but they wouldn’t budge off $750m. Normal people would spend hours going back and fought with the price. We gave in to their price, but told them our stuff was worth $2b instead of the $1b we thought.
I still don’t think they ever figured it out. Both parties greedy, one smart, one not so smart
numbers changed to protect the innocent
#42 Richard; No we are definitely going to 7% watch and see. It sounds like you have only ever seen the upside of a market; any market, which leads to your sense of complacency.
Again you have to be consistent. Your constant playing up of the good news and down playing the negative, does nto work.
I am more interest than ever in the velocity auction with this interest rate move. Hard to figure out the market with brokers muddying the water with relistings, listing stuff as sold but leaving the asking price on the ads ( I know you can get off tax records, but doesn’t it take 4 month to get in database?)
The news of this auction has been pretty public in every newspapers I know. I think their problem will be that they should be targeting buyers that are not reading the newspapers and belive the analysis I got from the broker this week about rent vs. buy
$42 So its only over reacting when the news is bad, and for so long it has been rah,rah cheerleading, and you belive that to be the truth. And yet you find no disconnect in that.
So when its good news its true, but when its bad news its over reacting?
You grasshopper have never seen a down market.
I spend quite a bit of time in Ireland with my girlfriend and baby being over there. Give me a unique prespective. Their RE problem I believe will be worse than ours due to:
1 – everyone on variable rate mtgs
2 – their rate got down to 3% on mtgs
3 – Due to their history when the English didn’t let them own land. Owning is sacred to them
4- due to number 3 above most people own two or more homes in the buy to let market.
I’ll share two interesting things that happened
1 – I tried to explain to my girlfriend (who is very smart and that’s why I love her) that a 1% increase in interest rates on a 3% mtg would increase payments by 33%. She couldn’t believe it until I showed her the math. When she went to tell her friends this they couldn’t believe it etc, etc.
2 – Was recently going out to dinner with her brother and another couple. Was in front seat of cab with brother talking to driver. They started talking about manyt things, but the topic soon moved to real estate. Things are getting a bit slow they both said (due to a stamp tax issue in re purchases), etc. But both agreed prices won’t drop they will just level off. I didn’t say a word. just two average Joe’s talking, but it spoke volumns to me
Hat tip to Ben Jones for this link.
Town homes a steal in Fort Myers
You’re not going to believe what some brand new townhomes went for on the auction block Thursday night in Fort Myers, considering where prices have been. A three bedroom townhome previously priced at $310,000 sold for about $180,000! First time home buyer Brandon Quarterman, a student at Florida Gulf Coast University, was the lucky bidder. He said, ‘I’m feeling great. more money in my pocket!”
…
Greg Toher was outraged when he heard the prices some of the homes were going for. Walking out of the auction room, he told us, “$145,000! Unbelievable! We paid $300,000! They just got rid of at least four for $145,000!” He says he closed on his three bedroom San Simeon townhome in December, “You’ve got to be kidding me, that’s not fair.”
New buyers may be getting a steal, but current San Simeon homeowners, like Greg, tell WINK News they feel like they’ve been ripped off. Tara Gionpalo said, “I feel really mad, really sad, hurt.” Victoria Toher said the developer went back on their word, “They promised us they were not going to go below market value.” A Levitt and Sons representative told WINK News on Thursday night that the homes did go for fair market value…as determined by the hundreds of bidders at the auction. He went on to say they feel terrible for the homeowners, but the prices were reflective of a challenging real estate market and they’re confident it will once again shift in the homeowner’s favor.
From #52: “They promised us they were not going to go below market value.”
The best part is…technically, the never did. LOL.
On that Realtor topic:
I think you can do all comparison you want on Realtor Vs FSBO, the bottom line still will be the Cultural issue. In US, most people are just brain washed that Realtor is the only best way to buy and sell, and paying 4% to 6% commission is right. This aspect of thinking is not going to change anytime soon.
I was thinking of other similar example. For e.g. In US you don’t find most latest Cell phones (exception may be upcoming iPhone). One of the main reason behind this is cultural. In US, cell phone usage is many times considered invasion of privacy, and folks are not culturally keen on things like Text messaging etc… So even though rest of world adapted quickly to latest phone gizmos, US still lags behind.
The swiftness/velocity of the move may be an abberation. Then again perfection is priced in, sh*t happens. I would not be surprised by a pullback. That said, if you think eternal low rates are the new paradigm, you are being foolish. Look at the bunds, gilts and jgb’s.
BC BOB,
“I’m glad you do. If that’s the case why the hell did you buy RE in 2006? If I had a crystal ball, I would be taking acting lessons right now with Make.”
Everyone has a Crystal ball and can make great predictions on a blog without takin a position in it. The point is that only after you put your money on the table you can bet on Black.
#52 Prices iN ireland will definitely be coming down, things got way out of control, and a family memebr who is here now tells me that the market has slowed dramatically.
When I was there last year it was still out of control. You are right, owning is sacred to them, and they do not have property taxes per se.
on another note it is kind of sad to see so much of the countrey being paved over, tight now there is a major effort to stop a highway expansion, that is being constructed dangerously close to the historic Hill of Tara
“Look at the bunds, gilts and jgb’s”
That’s exactly what I’m thinking.
curiousd,
Isn’t it time for a bitter or a lager?
Cheers Mate.
hr(51)
It’s the same story anywhere in the world. It’s the age of Real estate Equity Withdrawal. Farmers near India’s big cities who own couple of acres are getting bids for $100-150K/acre!! Needless to say these guys are no longer farming. Nobody there even remotely thinks prices can even level off.
#52 JB So its only fair when prices go up, but not when prices go down. And somebody here was questioning the belif that one psoert had that many, amny Americans are clueless, well they are.
“The point is that only after you put your money on the table you can bet on Black.”
Make,
Amen.
I know I promised May 2007 GSMLS sales and inventory data this morning. Didn’t get around to pulling all the images together.
It’ll be up Monday, but here is a teaser
https://njrereport.com/images/may07-sales.gif
https://njrereport.com/images/may07-salesinv.gif
jb
JB #52
Just have another sign to watch for bottom. Someone will got shot because of a real estate deal, mtg broker, broker, developer, etc.
I was surprised that no one tried to shoot Key Lay. Especially in Texas where everyone has a gun. He must of been able to afford good security. But he ruined many lives and profited from it.
That combo will make many angry
Given the jump in rates over the past two weeks, and the new May sales data, can we call the Northern NJ Spring market a bust?
#2,6,9 – property taxes in fl.
one reason that people in fl. don’t save on property taxes when they sell and downsize is because in fl. if you own a house, there is some kind of homestead law that restricts how much your taxes can go up. if you move, that restriction is lifted for the new owner, and the taxes go up to market, and the restriction starts all over. so these people, who already own the big house have the restriction in place. if they go to the new place, they pay market.
we don’t have that rule here in nj, so the comparision is a little faulty.
Completely misleading headline from Yahoo:
Gandolfini: Tony Soprano was ‘wearing’
It refers to the fact that Gandolfini found acting was a “wearing” experience.
BC Bob Says:
June 8th, 2007 at 9:57 am
The swiftness/velocity of the move may be an abberation. Then again perfection is priced in, sh*t happens. I would not be surprised by a pullback. That said, if you think eternal low rates are the new paradigm, you are being foolish. Look at the bunds, gilts and jgb’s.
BC bob
I was talking about the Velocity Condo auction in Hoboken on June 20th. the spike in interest rates will make auction more interesting. We’ll see if buys are still there or not. And see if Hoboken Manhattan are really immune to price drops
#65 JB yes, perhaps Clot can update us on what he hase been seeing these last coupel of weeks. MY realtor contact sends em lsitings every day, and is trying mightily to convince me to buy. Put an offer in etc.
But anything I might be interested in is still at ridiculous asking levels, so why bother.
Let the Summer play out, and by then I think we seperate the serious sellers from the insane, who will either withdraw the listing etc.
And of course there is that constant detail of property taxes; I am more concerned about that then property prices,as there is no control there at all.
#67 Chgo I read his interview in the Start Ledger, and he did say, that he found the character wering towards the end of the series.
we don’t have that rule here in nj, so the comparision is a little faulty.
We have it, indirectly, for seniors. Someone brought the senior property tax freeze yesterday.
I believe the rules surrounding the NJ senior tax freeze program might create a similar situation, since one of the requirements is having lived in the same home for 3 years.
jb
http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/taxation/index.html?propfrez.htm~mainFrame
“Given the jump in rates over the past two weeks, and the new May sales data, can we call the Northern NJ Spring market a bust?
Grim,
Why not be nice and call it soft landing?
Bust is such a harsh word. We should be more neighborly and have some compassion for Donald and the rest of the bagholders.
MM
All:
I received this question from a client. I can answer it, but I rather give an exact and well informed answer. The guy has completely paid off his mortgage about 12 months ago.
Also, any preference as to product?
======================
Do you know if it’s difficult to get a home equity loan on a property that is not currently mortgaged? That is, since no other financial institution has done current work on the property (my home), do you think a new home equity lender would need to go through a whole new process as if it’s a regular mortgage and, therefore, I would be looking at upfront costs?
Jim,
Looking at your graph, it looks like the May to June period has been where all the action is. This month is going to be the do or die time. I’m expecting a flatline, like a heart monitor
“I am more interest than ever in the velocity auction with this interest rate move. Hard to figure out the market with brokers muddying the water with relistings, listing stuff as sold but leaving the asking price on the ads ( I know you can get off tax records, but doesn’t it take 4 month to get in database?)”
Hey Hobokenrenter, did you see that Coldwell realtor put that flyer posting on our building that some one bedroom just sold and he had $489K on the flyer. That HAD to be the asking price. There’s no way they found somebody dumb enough to shell that money out for a 1 Bd/ 1 BA without parking.
Re: Senior Tax freeze
You cannot qualify for it if you earn over $25,000 (or something around that) a year. I’m not aware of any restriction and almost all the people I know who are barely getting by have had the freeze in place for many years. Once you have it, you have to pay the amount but the state reimburses you.
I heard that this is apparently very common in Australia. Has anyone heard of this here?
Make fortnightly payments to reduce your mortgage
http://www.xeal.com/articles/Make-fortnightly-payments-to-reduce.htm
#71 jb –
my mistake – i didn’t realize there was anything for seniors here. i guess it’s just harder to qualify.
“on another note it is kind of sad to see so much of the countrey being paved over, tight now there is a major effort to stop a highway expansion, that is being constructed dangerously close to the historic Hill of Tara”
Oh, that’s terrible. I got engaged in Ireland several years back and what’s so great is all the open space, particularly around the important historical sites. Tara I remember as quiet and deserted. That would be a shame.
We considered moving there and getting jobs – back to the old sod, as hubby’s family would say – definitely a nice place to live.
Hobokenrenter, are you planning to move over there to live eventually?
Hey everyone,
After thinking everyhting over last night I have finally decided why my home has not sold.
Is it the price? NO
Is it the condition of the home? NO
Is there something wrong with my home? NO
The reason is that the people who want to buy my house can’t do so until they sell their home. The other day I had the same couple visit my house twice within 8 hours. I also had some other people very interested, but they also have homes to sell. It makes ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE to reduce the price because that will not help the people who want my house to get their homes sold. The market has spoken and has said that my house is priced correctly.
#77
Actually it’s $41,000 for a single homeowner. I emailed it to my dad but I don’t know if he will qualify since he had to sell stock in recent years to settle my mom’s estate.
The reason is that the people who want to buy my house can’t do so until they sell their home.
Plankton.
jb
Is there something wrong with the seller? YES
Is the seller a moron? YES
Is there something wrong with the market? YES
good luck mr donald
#74 chicago –
i used to work in a major bank, and from my experience it is at least as easy (perhaps even easier) if you don’t have another mortgage.
the bank i worked for would do their own appraisals etc. regardless – i never saw them use or rely on any work that another institution did. i addition, since their is no other lien holder, the bank would rather be in a first position. there was a short period of time when we were offering a better rate on home equity loans on first positions only.
as far as closing costs – there were none on our side, on home eq. loans and lines
From Pimco:
The Plankton Theory Meets Minsky
“The Plankton Theory, like life itself, begins and ends in the ocean. Plankton, of course, are almost microscopic organisms that serve as food for higher life forms. Without plankton almost every fish and mammal in the sea could not survive, since most species depend upon other fish for their existence and plankton are the initial building blocks of the entire process. Logic would suggest, therefore, that in attempting to forecast the well being of the Great White Whale, Jaws, or even Jaws II, that one of the factors to consider would be the status and future outlook of the plankton. That, in one hundred words or less, is the Plankton Theory.
Now, what possible significance could this have for the investment world? Plenty. Take for example, the area of real estate, especially that of single family housing. We’re all familiar with the rapid escalation of home prices over the last 10 years. For most Americans, their homes have been the best and in many cases the only investment that they have made in their entire lives. Some have gone so far as to invest in several homes and have endured ‘negative carry’ on the cash flow in anticipation of leveraged capital gains a few years down the road. But where does it stop? Can housing continue to increase at twice the Consumer Price Index for the next 10 years?
One way to measure might be via the Plankton Theory. In the case of real estate, the plankton would be the first-time buyer (perhaps a young married couple) with a desire to own their own home but with very little capital to carry it off. When the time comes that they can’t pull it off – either through an inability to come up with a down payment, or to service the monthly mortgage – then the ‘plankton’ would disappear and the rapid escalation in housing prices would ease as well. For, unless the current homeowner has someone to sell his house to, he’ll be unable to afford the house with the view or that extra bedroom, and the process would continue into the echelons of Beverly Hills and Shaker Heights. In the end, the entire market would wither on the investment vine and home prices would stop increasing at the same rapid rate. So to gauge the health of the housing market, look first at the plankton. Without their presence and financial vitality, the market’s not going to repeat the experience of the past 10 years.”
NJGal #80
Don’t know, but keeping my options open. Got an Irish passport through my grandparents.
When the nurse was checking my baby out she said “what do you think of Ireland?” I said “Its becoming more like America every day McDonalds down the street, people being over weight and in debt up to their eye brows”
I guess if the markets really blow up I’d be more inclined, but want to ride out this bubble to get every dollar I can
#81,
If you can’t sell your house and the couple can’t sell their house, and there are for sale signs all over the place…maybe…just maybe someone is not pricing correctly.
#84 – I meant “economy” not “market”.. but oh well, donald is not going to understand anyways
BC
I just answered your email, sorry for delay.
KL
“curiousd,
Isn’t it time for a bitter or a lager?
Cheers Mate.”
Indeed. you guys can solve NJ’s probs on this shift.
“maybe someone is not pricing correctly.”
It ain’t me. Do people look at overpriced homes twice in the same day?
Donald Says:
June 8th, 2007 at 10:48 am
Tuesday, June 5, 2007
Please stop posting ads. If my site is going to be used to help cast a television show, I’m going to be compensated for it. Should I mail you the invoice?
jb
#93 Young Donald: Has your house sold? No. Therefore your house is over priced. Can you really be that much of a …..Simpleton?
HEHEHE 76
Yes I did see the $489k ask on the one bedroom. Same thing happened on the third floor. Guy started at $489 dropped to $469 then $429 Think it sold around that price. Though he took quite a hit until I saw that he bought in the mid to high $3’s.
With the move to the internet and the power of infomation, it will be hard to smoke screen smart buyers. But it does take a bit of time to do this analysis so it does cost.
They canceled the open house because they got an offer. Don’t think they should of in case that offer falls through.
From other on the board – does it take about 4 months from close to have the NJ tax database updated?
How was that an ad? It came from a newspaper article.
Hobokenrenter,
Did you see that Coldwell Banker realtor put that flyer on our building saying a 1bd/1ba just sold and had a price of $489K. That HAD to be the listing price unless somebody fell off the turnip truck in front of the place.
Why should I help an entertainment firm cast a show, and not be compensated for it? They sure as heck wouldn’t help cast the show without compensation. They aren’t doing it out of the goodness of their hearts.
Do you have any idea how expensive it is to keep this site up? The money I invest in this site sure as heck isn’t going to be wasted on the bandwidth involved in allowing free advertising, and I’m sure those who have helped to offset the costs of running this site don’t want their dollars squandered on it.
Plenty of casting firms have approached me looking for invididuals to take part in television shows, my answer has always been, “No.”
jb
Whoever this Donald character is on here I will make a comment. If your house was priced correctly you idiot it would of sold. Keep blaming it on people must sell their house first.. While that is part of the fact, it is not the sole fact.
“Has your house sold? No. Therefore your house is over priced.”
So ALL of the houses in NJ that have not sold are overpriced? Sorry, but you are wrong. Sometimes it just tkaes a long tome to sell. The last time I did this it took 2 years. I looked at some comps recently. Right after I bought my house, a similar house in the bad section of town sold for $810,000 and a teardown with a view sold for $1.1 million. I don’t see myself being overpriced. Just because you can’t afford my hosue does not mean it is overpriced. Go back to buying that $200,000 house in the middle of nowhere.
#80 NJ Gal From the time I went over there as a kid in the late 70’s to now, an incredible amount of change, much good, some bad.
My parents are very proud to see the land of their birth standing on its own 2 feet, especially after such a long and tragic history.
I am still amazed however, that even thought their education was extremely limited at the time, the can recite massive poems from memory, in both English and Irish and do fractions in their head.
The Tara highway project is being fought,and hopefully the preservationists will prevail.
As far as passports we all have ours,and if it is something you are considering doing, you should do it quickly as I am told the requirements are going to be tightened.
“If your house was priced correctly you idiot it would of sold.”
Unture again. My agent just looked at the sales data and, in over a year, not a single house in my price range in the area has sold. NOBODY IS SELLING. The home is not overpriced. The problem is that anyone who likes my house can’t buy it because they have a house to sell. Lowering the price will not help them sell their house, idiot.
Donald,
“After thinking everyhting over last night I have finally decided why my home has not sold.”
Donald you were actually thinking? Wow, I’m impressed. Did you stay up all night until a light bulb went on?
You must feel smart now don’t you? You figured it all out. Good for you.
Re post 63:
Holy Cow. If the rest of the state did anything like that, the RE agents must be wetting their pants.
13 months of inventory and sales off 50%? I don’t think there are many people as bearish as I am and that’s way worse than I would have expected.
Since you guys think you are SO SMART, explain this:
If 3 people like my house but cannot buy it because their house has not sold yet, how will loweirng my price help them buy my house?
“Unture again. My agent just looked at the sales data and, in over a year, not a single house in my price range in the area has sold.”
That’s because your price range is overpriced. Ask yourself this? Who in your area sold? and at how much?
Hobokenrenter….
Did you know that due to Irish passport, you can also apply for a Mexican passport? Thanks to appreciation of Irish support in the Mexican war against the US, you can still obtain a Mexican passport. Pretty cool!
Yep, another Mc here….and also very saddened by the RE Bubble back home…and the loss of the old thatch roof homesteads, etc…
Is there any way to configure Donalds and Reechards comments to appear in a different color so that I can scroll past those without wasting my time?
Donalds last comment about other people not selling because every one had priced their homes *right* but they can’t find buyers scared me to the point that I am going to call his shrink and complain that he is not doing his job well.
It makes ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE to reduce the price because that will not help the people who want my house to get their homes sold. The market has spoken and has said that my house is priced correctly.
—
It ain’t me. Do people look at overpriced homes twice in the same day?
Donald –
you must be the smartest seller out there. you’re absolutely right!! THEY should lower their price not YOU!!
just keep doing what you’re doing and don’t listen to anybody. eventually the market will catch up and you WILL sell your house for what you think its worth.
My advice for you is PLAY GOLF DONALD!
I saw an interesting article on the web that there are studies now on golf and home sellers. It says that for sellers who pick up the game of golf, by the time their a scratch golfer, their house will be under contract (at least!). you know what, it even goes to say that a few of them will actually have SOLD by then.
send me your email and I’ll send you the link but for now…
PLAY GOLF DONALD! PLAY ON!!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aTkSSgQrcZXk&refer=us
Since you guys think you are SO SMART, explain this:
Economics 101
Price is a factor of Supply and Demand.
High Home Inventory/ Less buyers = lower prices.
Donald you make Richard look intelligent. Please go back to school !!!
Unture again. My agent just looked at the sales data and, in over a year, not a single house in my price range in the area has sold. NOBODY IS SELLING. The home is not overpriced. The problem is that anyone who likes my house can’t buy it because they have a house to sell. Lowering the price will not help them sell their house, idiot.
Donald – it is not a conspiracy around your house:
Could it be that ALL houses are overpriced right now compare to salaries???
So if people who want to buy your house can not sell they’d have to lower their price – but than your house is too expensive for them…
Could it be??
So unless everybody!! at all levels lowers their prices nothing will move for a few years.
I say it only because I have being looking at starter homes for almost 2 years now – listings are all the same from 1.5-1 year ago.
Starter home buyers do not have a house to sell.. Why aren’t they buying??
SO in a few years when salaries will catch up with home rices the chain will be working again.
It might take 4-5 years – so be ready to just stay put for 4 years. Again – what is the hurry to sell??? wait for 4-5 years and you will sell it for your current price.
I will be looking to buy a starter home in a few years. Just not in NJ. Property taxes are getting more and more out of control here.
“That’s because your price range is overpriced. Ask yourself this? Who in your area sold? and at how much?”
Already answered that. The only sales I know of are one for 810,000 and $1.1 million. There was also one for $1.5 million, but that is definitely not my price range so I will omit it.
>>You grasshopper have never seen a down market.
try asking me instead of making assumptions about why i have a certain position. there is logic behind my statements.
Idiot,
The chain is busted. Your albatross is as good as the weakest link in the chain. Unfortunately, there are too many weak links in this chain. There is no quick fix. Prices, at all levels will come down. The market has spoken. Get the damn crap out of your ears and listen. God gave you one mouth and two ears. Make his work worthwhile. Shut up and listen. The market is speaking voulmes, its actually deafening.
>>That said, if you think eternal low rates are the new paradigm, you are being foolish. Look at the bunds, gilts and jgb’s.
not me. i expect the fed to raise once or twice next year and the 10 year to move up to the 5.35-5.40 range.
“Starter home buyers do not have a house to sell.. Why aren’t they buying??”
In Bergen County, they are buying. My agent just sold a bunch of them for either full asking price or above asking price. He had one house in Fairlawn that was listed for just over $500,000. It sold in a week for full asking price.
My house is different because it is not a starter’s home. The people in this price range usually already own a home. The same is true for me. My starter home was an apartment in Manhattan.
So you are saying basically that everyone that can buy your house must sell their house first??? Did you ever hear of people that dont have to sell their house first? There are people out there like that, lol.
Donald Says:
June 8th, 2007 at 11:09 am
Since you guys think you are SO SMART, explain this:
If 3 people like my house but cannot buy it because their house has not sold yet, how will loweirng my price help them buy my house?
To answer and follow up on my last post:
Lowering your price would enable people who want to upgrade to lower price on their home.
Hopefully they will attractthat elusive first time home buyer with lowered price..
High price on your home does not allow them to sell their’s cheaper. The same goes for you – you can not buy better home if you do nto see next level homes getting cheaper as well.
Thats why we see such a huge drop in sales volumes from last few years.
As far as people calling each other names – it is a bit childish, and Donald did not start it. It does not add value – actually opposite – I will not take an argument seriously from a person who reserves himself(herself) to a name calling.
You remember in pre-school they used to tell us: Be nice kids.
“When the nurse was checking my baby out she said “what do you think of Ireland?” I said “Its becoming more like America every day McDonalds down the street, people being over weight and in debt up to their eye brows”
My husband dragged me to McDonald’s because they still had the fried apple pie (now who said Irish food was sh-t?). Good luck to you whatever you decide – I have heard Ireland is gaining as many people now as it lost to the famine. I know that’s why my many times great grandparents left.
3b, I was thinking about trying to do that, but unfortunately, although the hubby’s great grandparents were off the boat, his grandma was born here (by the skin of her teeth, but still here). So I think the option is out for us. My fam has been here forever, and my husband’s other side actually had people who fought for the Union in the Civil War. I guess they’re too far back to count. I suppose I could try to pull some strings, but since it looks like we’re remaining here, oh well.
If that bubble blows over though, we always hoped to buy a small vacation property there eventually.
OK, this is way off topic, but someone asked me a question at the bottom of yesterdays thread and I want to give them the best chance to see my answer.
Rob, from yesterdays Part of the exodus thread said:
Lindsey I can’t figure you out. One minute your defending every second government handout program and the next you’re pointing out that the kleptocrats are greedy pigs when it comes to tax revenue. Where do you draw a line?
Rob,
I try to deal with the reality of the situation. There are legitimate government programs that have broad social benefits and there also are incredible examples of government boondoggles, fraud, and waste (and they’re not always what people think they are i.e municipal police forces).
I know elected officials and bureaucrats who work diligently and honestly on behalf of the people who elected and hired them and I know glad-handing (and ham-handed) hucksters who look at a place in government as an opportunity to get while the getting is good.
People tend to see only the things they want to see, no matter which side of the fence they’re on, I try to avoid that. Also, I think you might see what I view as attempts to correct misinformation, or simply provide information, as defense or support of a particular program. That may or may not be the case, I just like a fair fight.
This site is consistently interesting and a lot of fun, and I enjoy contributing what I can to the discussions.
>>Given the jump in rates over the past two weeks, and the new May sales data, can we call the Northern NJ Spring market a bust?
depends on whether you sold and for what price this season ;) it’s been sluggish at best. then again the quality of the inventory released this year in my town was nowhere near what came out last year. not sure if there’s something to this.
#100 Young Donald Has your house sold, NO, have many other houses sold No, therefore your house and all those other houses are over priced for this market, it is as simple as that.
If a house has not sold in 3 to 6 months , it is over priced, period.
You are not trying to sell your house, you are hoping to sell your house at a price that does not reflect where the market is today.
Your theroy is that eventually someone will come along and buy it at your fantasty price.
Well Young Donald how long will that take? I believe you are coming up on a year now, will it take another year, perhaps 2, 3?
And in the meantime the market conditions for sellers will continue to decline.
And the serious sellers will get the message that the market has indeed changed,and will start to reduce their prices to a level that will clear the market.
Yet you will remain at your fantsaty price that is now at least 2 years dated, which was too high in the first place, as you over paid even than, and for that town.
Finally Young Donald as the market continues to decline, would be buyers can adjust their preferences as to where they might purchase.
For instance some one who might have been looking in Wyckoff, can now look in Franklin Lakes, some one who was looking in Westwood can now look in Hillsdale or Montvale, and so on, and so on.
For single family houses, nobody is or will be banging down the doors to buy in Cliffside Park, perhaps for your condo shacks, but if people are buying houses, chances are its because they have or are planning to have kids.
Cliffside rightly or wrongly is not known for its schools, nor can it be described as pretty or peaceful or surburban like.
If people can buy in Ridgewood or Wyckoff etc, there is no way they are going to pay 800+ for a house in Cliffside, it is as simple as that.
You have no understanding of the Bergen County market at all. You bought at the peak, your way over paid, in a town that is not desireable.
Sorry to be harsh, but your stupidity and arrogance is just getting real old, so I have laid out the harsh facts for you.
I do not call other people names unless they do so to me.
As far as lowering my price to encourage the people who want to buy my house to lower their prices, I do not think this wil work because there is no guarantee that they will do so. They will most likely view the price drop as extra money in their pocket and will keep their prices the same. There is no rush for them to buy my house. It’s not an emergency.
DON’T LISTEN TO ANYONE DONALD! DON’T LOWER YOUR PRICE!! YOUR HOUSE WILL SELL! THEY ARE WRONG YOU ARE RIGHT! YOU ARE VERY CLEVER.
PLAY GOLF DONALD! PLAY ON!!
James Bednar Says:
June 8th, 2007 at 10:02 am
I know I promised May 2007 GSMLS sales and inventory data this morning. Didn’t get around to pulling all the images together.
It’ll be up Monday, but here is a teaser
https://njrereport.com/images/may07-sales.gif
https://njrereport.com/images/may07-salesinv.gif
jb
MY G-D!
#114 Richard I still do nto belive you ahev ever seen a down market, a really nasty ugly down market, if I am wrong, than I apologize.
But I stand by my statement that you do have areal tendency to take good news as Gospel,a nd pooh,pooh bad news, and therefore that is why I believe you have never seen any kind of decline in a market.
Like I always say when I hear the nonsense talk of a soft landing, I always ask please point to the last one.
Thanks 3b,
I will tell that to the people who bought the McMansions on the cliffs with direct views of the city for $2.5 million.
In case you do not know, the Gold Coast is not noted for it’s schools. Fort Lee used to have good schools, but they seemed to have declined. In 2004, they were ranked by NJ Month at #43. In 2006, they were ranked at #99 (ouch!) However, people do like being close to the city and there are plenty of private school options. I am sure that the students in Dwight Englewood are recieving a much better education than those in the best public school in NJ.
#120 NJ I got the passports in the 80’s it ws kind of areassuring traveling with one back then over seas.
For my kids I thought they might want to consider going to university over there; no desire on their part.
If you go back again, please consider a visit to the Aran Islands off the Galway coast, rugged beautiful, and the last speakers left of the Irish language. Well worth the trip.
t c m Says:
June 8th, 2007 at 10:48 am
#74 chicago –
tcm: thank you
#127 Donald Perhaps the 2. 5 million buyers on the Cliffs do not care, but in the 800k range people will buy in Franklin Lakes, or Wyckoff or Ridgewood before Cliffside.
gsmls at 34,931 and moving higher every day.
Donald Your agent must be awesome !! There are 179 single family homes for sale in Fair Lawn as per the njmls, and that is not counting coops/condo shacks or town homes.
JB: Could you provide me some more information on this home:
2387534
Thanks!
So that that mena that nobody is going to buy houses that are less than 30 minutes away from the city and everyone is running to live 90 minutes away?
Please stop feeding the ducks. They hang around and sh*t all over the place
hey make money, looks like you’ve joined the dark side. pressure got to ya?
And Cliffside is not in competition with Franklin Lakes or Wyckoff. Different sets of buyers. How come nobody is buying homes in comparable price ranges as mine in Cresskill or Demarest. I have been keepting track of some homes there in the MLS and they have bene on the markrt almost as long as mine. The last time I checked, they have BETTER schools that Franklin Lakes and Wyckoff.
>>Is there any way to configure Donalds and Reechards comments to appear in a different color so that I can scroll past those without wasting my time?
sorry to break up your homogenity lol.
What does everyone think of Fort Lee? In comparison to Cliffside Park?
Oh, and I hate to tell you guys. But homes in Englewood Cliffs go for 7 digits and Dwight Morrow, the high school they share with Englewood, is a complete disaster. They once tired to break their relationship with Englewood and use Tenafly High School instead, but the state would not allow them to.
JN,
MLS# 2387534 – 3* IROQUOIS RD
OLP: $360,000
LP: $360,000
DOM: 82
donald if the data points to your house being competitively priced then stick to it. just because it hasn’t sold doesn’t mean it’s overpriced. that’s a simpleton’s explanation. markets however are changing quicker than in the past so you need to keep your finger on the pulse.
I agree Richard. There are other factors that are involved in selling a house besides price, like having a large pool of buyers with the money ready to purchase the house. I have already found lots of buyers interested in the house but their money is tied up in their houses.
#137 Donald Single family homes in all town compete with each other, up or down, depending on the schools.
You also need to keep in mind that the majority of people who live in Bergen County, do not work in NYC, shocking, but true. So the close proximity to NYC will not matter to most of them.
As far as schools Cresskill/ Demarest is Northern Valley, FL Wyc is Ramapo Indian Hills, these 2 districts are carbon cpoies of each other, socio-economic, test scores, prestige, or perceived prestige.
And youa re right these peoples houses are not selling, and again that is because they are over priced for where this market is today.
Toxic financing is rapidly disappearing, lending standards are tightening, rates are rising, the environment has changed, it is as simple as that.
I am sure there are people out there today who are willing to pay some of these asking prices, perhaps even for yours, but if they cannot get financing, they cannot buy, simple as that.
“If you go back again, please consider a visit to the Aran Islands off the Galway coast, rugged beautiful, and the last speakers left of the Irish language. Well worth the trip.”
Ah, the one place we missed (besides Northern Ireland). We’ll have to go next time.
There are still some Irish speakers in Kerry and Cork, and up in Donegal and Mayo, but they are becoming fewer and farther between. I had friends growing up who’s parents were from Ireland. They sent them back every summer to Irish school, so that they could learn the language. I’m not sure they can ask much more than how to find the bathroom, but it was fun for them.
#142 Richard his house has been on the market since last August;who exactly is the simpelton?
Bill Gross of Pimco was just on CNBC. I didn’t hear the whole story, but bottom line was lot of US private investments are now following what China and other countries are doing. Moving into other currencies etc… The higher interest rates see to be here for long time.
if you are not interested in buying donald duck’s house, stop meddling in his business. it’s his home. let him rot in it.
Top High Schools
1
McNair Academic (Jersey City)
Hudson
2
Tenafly
Bergen
3
Millburn
Essex
4
Montgomery
Somerset
5
Mountain Lakes
Morris
6
Glen Rock
Bergen
7
Northern Highlands Regional (Allendale)
Bergen
8
Pascack Hills (Montvale)
Bergen
9
West Windsor–Plainsboro South
Mercer
10
Glen Ridge
Essex
11
Ridge (Bernards Twp)
Somerset
12
Chatham
Morris
13
Princeton
Mercer
14
Livingston
Essex
15
Cresskill
Bergen
16
Northern Valley Regional (Demarest)
Bergen
17
Haddonfield Memorial
Camden
18
West Windsor–Plainsboro North
Middlesex
19
Holmdel
Monmouth
20
Summit
Union
21
Governor Livingston (Berkeley Heights)
Union
22
Westfield
Union
23
Pascack Valley (Hillsdale)
Bergen
24
Ridgewood
Bergen
25
Northern Valley Regional (Old Tappan)
Bergen
26
New Providence
Union
27
Ramsey
Bergen
28
Ramapo (Franklin Lakes)
http://www.njmonthly.com/topschools/hslist.lasso
Richard Says:
June 8th, 2007 at 11:47 am
hey make money, looks like you’ve joined the dark side. pressure got to ya?
Richard…come back to the dark side…join forces with us once again…I am you father…
#145 NJ Gal: Yes in North Kerry where my mother is from, and around Dingle (An Daingean) also in the northwest areas west Cavan/Leitrim, the language only died out in the ealry 1900’s so much of the local speech is still peppered with Irish words.
I mention Aran as it is much more prevelant there, and it does not lap up against English speaking only areas.
It is also starting to become popular with middle and upper middle class people who send their children to Irish schools in the summer.
It is starting to become a sign of pride again, instead of a sign of backwardness.
142 & 143,
Who’s on first?
the simpleton’s explanation why houses aren’t selling today is price. i believe the cheap money and ‘increased’ housing interest the past few years has borrowed transactions from the future and the slowdown we’re seeing could be a result of this. you can’t discount the run up in prices either. point is there are a myriad of factors that go into a markets condition. still for you you only need one buyer. it’s like trying to find a spouse when dating. the process is no….no….no, no, no….maybe……no, no no no no no, no yes. it only takes 1 out of 10 or 100 no difference.
#149 Donald Like I said they are interchangeable
“I have already found lots of buyers interested in the house but their money is tied up in their houses.”
Just classic.
Richard,
Yes, but don’t neglect the effects of rapid appreciation on mispricing. Overpricing was quickly forgiven in the rapidly escalating market of the past few years.
Did those “overpriced” property just so happen to find a buyer that fit (ala your spouse example), or did the rest of the market simply appreciate upwards around it, therefore correcting the pricing error?
jb
According to Bill Gross,
Interest rates moves higher a few years hence due to inflation and bond subsidy giving way for asset diversification on the part of surplus reserve nations.
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2007/IO+May-June+2007.htm
Jersey City has the best school in NJ. Let’s all buy bullet proof vests and move there. YEAH!
#153 Richard I will give you, and in fact agree thay buyers were pulled forward to purchase, and again that ws able to happen becasue of the lax lending standards. There is a direct correlation there, simple as that.
Because of all the insanity that occurred, we are where we are today, which is price. A simple explanation, as oppsed to an explanation by a simpleton.
If your house is on the market for almost a year, it should tell one something.
“the simpleton’s explanation why houses aren’t selling today is price”
“you can’t discount the run up in prices either”
Richard [153],
A precious dicotomy of views.
“It is starting to become a sign of pride again, instead of a sign of backwardness.”
As it should be – a tough but lovely language when it’s spoken. I can only say one phrase and it’s not to be repeated in polite company:) I think my grandfather spoke a little but he died when I was very young. Little NJGal (yes, it’s a girl) will hopefully have an Irish name if I can convince her father to go that route.
It’s very nice to see the Celtic Tiger continue to roar. I just hope that all the westernization doesn’t totally ruin its charm. I think it might not, because the national identity is so strong and you know the Irish – they’d be too stubborn to lose that.
If you think a year is bad, there is a clown down the street from me whose house has been on the market for 3 YEARS! The house is brand new and has a partial view of the city. When I went to the open house over a year ago, the original price was $2 million. He the dropped it to $1.8 million. The house is not listed with an agent so I do not know what the present price is.
#161 NJ Gal
The Irish Arts Center has a very nice program for the little ones! Including Irish language, dance and music classes. : ) It’s great Craic! I play Irish fiddle, and can’t wait till my own wee one can play a few tunes with me! I miss the Eagle Tavern here, I would have been bringing her since birth (they closed a while ago – due to RE bubble). Sadly, can’t think of another family friendly Irish bar to indoctrinate her in!
“they’d be too stubborn to lose that.”
NJGal,
You can hit me over the head all day with a 2×4, just don’t step on my toes.
“You can hit me over the head all day with a 2×4, just don’t step on my toes.”
Ha! Sounds like my husband.
Sassy, know of any good dancing schools in Westchester? I know some in CT, and obviously on LI, but I have yet to hear of one in Westchester.
Not that I relish spending the money on all those costumes and wigs…
News flash from the LEHIGH VALLEY area of PA. Our inventory is local houses is up 150% from last year and nobody is buying. It seems the fools from NJ who were buying and commuting 3-5 hours a day have given up. I predict that by the end of 2008 prices are back to 2001 levels. There are homes priced under 175k and nobody is even looking at them. Last year the same house would have sold in 1 day for 200k or more. You can really notice there aren’t many NJ license plates around the area much. Our local paper is still sucking off the realtors but the “LOCALS” aren’t dumb anymore.
Question, who would want to commute 3-5 hours a day after working 8-12 hours, just to have a place too sleep? You could rent a room in a boarding house cheaper and get just as much use out of it.
I can’t wait because too many families in our area were priced out because fools from NJ & NY were dumb enough to pay 100% more than a home is worth. It’s insane, row homes that were selling fore 75k were going for 175-200k, that’s way over 100% in many cases. That’s crazy! All they did was make a few retired local people wealthy and screw theirselves in return.
grim – unmoderate 126
#165 NJ Gal…
Hope this helps up the Irish, lol. A little bit of a trek, but could be worth it. Alas, I’m one of the Irish with no dancing ability, hence the fiddle!
http://www.lynnacademy.com/learn_more/locations.htm
Grim, you said:
Plenty of casting firms have approached me looking for invididuals to take part in television shows, my answer has always been, “No.”
Really? What kind of shows?
Boyaa Bob on Jeopardy?
This could be everyone’s 15 minutes of fame!
Donald, I do not have a home to sell. I am looking in the 900-1 mil range. I would not live in Cliffside, nor would anyone I know in our price range. Sorry. Now that people know the market is not skyrocketing anymore, the pressure to “buy anywhere, at any price” is off. Buyers are more choosy, esp if we are paying astronomical prices.
#164 Sassy: Uilleann and Warpipes for me, although lately I have not had a lot time to indulge in either one lately.
I’m still waiting for Kudlow to give me a call. Colbert lives around the block, too bad he hasn’t called either.
jb
From MarketWatch:
AIG’s subprime unit slapped by regulator
A subprime-mortgage unit of American International Group offered inappropriate loans to some borrowers and charged fees that were too high, the Office of Thrift Supervision said Friday.
Wilmington Finance Inc., a subsidiary of New York-based AIG , provided extensive loan-origination services for AIG Federal Savings Bank from July 2003 to May 2006, but the bank failed to manage and control its activities in a safe and sound way and didn’t consider consumer-protection issues appropriately, the U.S. regulator explained.
Wilmington originated subprime home loans that were inappropriate for some borrowers, and the firm didn’t properly consider their ability to repay the debt. Some were adjustable-rate mortgages with low “teaser” rates and the OTS was concerned that once the rates reset, borrowers would be unable to afford the payments and could lose their homes to foreclosure, said Kevin Petrasic, an agency spokesman.
#162 Definitely a tough language, I have give up on trying to learn it. One thing I have found fascinating is listening to English that is peppered with many Irish expressions, depending on how late in the area the language died out.
As far as the names we were bak and forth it, but in thhe ned we did it, just to keep a little something alive, no regrets in doing it either.
#162 I of course now that expression, along with a few others, and words for different things, but that is about it.
#163 Donald What can one say, 3 years!!, denial ain’t just a riverr.
scribe Says:
June 8th, 2007 at 12:43 pm
Boyaa Bob on Jeopardy?
This could be everyone’s 15 minutes of fame!
booya has been on TV?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oibk9Zk1_yI
the simpleton’s explanation why houses aren’t selling today is price. i believe the cheap money and ‘increased’ housing interest the past few years has borrowed transactions from the future and the slowdown we’re seeing could be a result of this. you can’t discount the run up in prices either. point is there are a myriad of factors that go into a markets condition..
These are all very relevant factors that go into determining the price.
Borrowing future from the future = less buyers in the market = less demand = lower price.
Lack of cheap money = less “ability” to pay = lower demand = lower price
Decrease interest in houses = less “willingness” to pay = lower demand = lower price
While you only need 1 buyer…a potential buyer has a multitude of homes to chose from and only needs 1 to lower their price.
Like I said above, inflation does a great job of correcting the asking prices of stagnant, overpriced properties.
jb
the simpleton’s explanation why houses aren’t selling today is price.
It’s not a simpleton’s answer, it just happens to be a simple answer. The explanation of how and why prices are determined may be more complex, but it all boils down to price.
A house that’s been on the market for a year and is generating very little interest is overpriced. No one is both willing and able to pay what you are asking. It really is that simple
#172 BBB
My grandpa was a piper, bought me my first fiddle. I wanted to play the pipes, but he insisted girls did NOT play pipes, he made it up to me with the fiddle. We still have his chanter…the pipes disappeared long ago. I too long for the days when I could play for hours on end…ahhh parenthoood really does change everything, lol!
#182 parnethood, and all the rees tthat gets in the way, but I am hoping to return to both (pipes) at some point.
SG (54)-
Just to get this straight…you’re saying that a move to a disorganized marketplace consisting of individual principals, each acting only on his own behalf, represents progress?
This would actually be funny to witness. Especially when the plaintiff’s bar begins targeting individual homesellers as a growth center.
3b (69)-
A slow death of a thousand cuts. In my bailiwick, you’re now either priced to sell…or you’re DOA.
No “make an offer” on something overpriced, no bagholders throwing money around without due diligence, no nothing (not even showings)…unless that house is priced right.
Is Charles Barkley next in line?
“Former San Antonio Spurs All-Star David Robinson plans to start a $250 million private-equity fund with a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. investment banker, taking stakes in what the pair deem “socially conscious” companies.”
“A name for the fund hasn’t been picked, although it will include the word “Admiral,” a nickname given to Robinson because he graduated from the U.S. Naval Academy.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alBRjvFO9goc&refer=home
ChiFi (74)-
Shouldn’t be a problem. In fact, lenders should love to do this as a HELOC…they’ll be in a senior position, whereas normally, they’d be junior.
Donald (81)-
Right diagnosis, wrong prescription.
#185 Clot Sound dismal (from the sellers perspective) and for yourself who is trying to educate the sellers out there.
Here is a new listing that came on in my area (njmls 2723067) This house would be perfect for our needs, quiet street, a little congested, but OK, convenient.
Has the amenities we need, pretty basic house, taxes are in the low 7k (50×100 lot) which for prestigious minutes from NYC Bergen Co is dare I say “attractive”.
Asking price 475K, almost 500K! to me crazy. I would pay 375k, and even that is a lot.
So there really is no point in throwing in a low ball, and so we wait.
Grim (173)-
If Kudlow interviewed you, he’d start drinking again.
For those interested, the Contract Sales spreadsheet (both GSMLS and NJMLS) has been updated for May.
https://njrereport.com/files/contracts.xls
jb
BC (186)-
I’d get behind Barkley in a second, cause that fund would be loaded up in booze and casinos.
David Robinson? Socially conscious?
In the investment world, socially conscious= lousy return.
James Bednar Says:
June 7th, 2007 at 2:27 pm
May GSMLS inventory has now eclipsed the peak set last year.
More details tomorrow morning.
jb
Jb,
Do you have anything further for us on this?
…there it is. please disregard #193
#191 JB So early surge then decline, much of what you were thinking earlier in the year.
Hey Possible Buyer,
If home prices re supposed to decline 30%, why are you in the market for a house? Could it be that I cannot sell because people are too afraid to buy a house, not because the price is too high?
What did you mean by this comment exactly?
“Especially when the plaintiff’s bar begins targeting individual homesellers as a growth center.”
And just curious, what towns are you looking in? If I were you, I would go to Alpine since they have dirt cheap property taxes.
Big D (196),
Don’t you get the point? There is uncertainty about the direction of prices in the future, so potential buyers will allow people like you to pay the negative carry on property while things shake out.
Factor the cost of carry into your “investment”, and I bet you would get into a bigger hurry to make a sale.
As I said before, I have no intnetions of dropping my asking price.
then buyers have no intention of buying
Clot (184), I didn’t get the plaintiffs bar identifying individual homesellers as a growth center either. After all, in an agent-less transaction, lawyers are still representing each party (presumably). Assuming each side has representation and does their due diligence what leg would the plaintiffs bar have to stand on?
Credit Crunch Threat – Are U.S. companies headed for a credit crunch?
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Corporate America may join troubled subprime-mortgage borrowers in struggling to pay off risky loans this year if the U.S. economy or stocks face an unexpected slump.
More at:
http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN0447613720070608?src=060807_1401_DOUBLEFEATURE_
I do not need to kiss the behinds of the buyers because that is senseless. Most of them have homes they need to sell before they can buy mine. Lowering the price is senseless because that does not help them sell their home.
#200 Donald well looks like you are going to be joining your neighbor in the 3 year camp. Make sure you keep the for sale sign looking fresh.
“Could it be that I cannot sell because people are too afraid to buy a house, not because the price is too high?”
Too much of an attempt to analyze, not enough time marketing.
How about the masses, you included, got sucked into this overpriced, overbought charade. All the elephants have entered the bldg thru the back door, they snuck in. That is now shut. The front door is too small to for the herd to escape. Sell?? To whom?? The office is flooded with sell orders, there are no buy orders at your price. There is a major order imbalance. All the delusional have already been sucked in.
Some excerpts from that Reuters Story:
…For months, risky U.S. firms have enjoyed cheap borrowing terms even as some homeowners with subprime mortgages, or loans to people with patchy credit histories, have sunk into default, due to stalling home prices and higher interest rates that made it hard for them to refinance in tough times.
….”The subprime market and what’s happened with housing is a signal or a leading indicator of what’s likely to come with credit,” said Mark Kiesel, portfolio manager at Pacific Investment Management Co., the world’s biggest bond manager.
….Despite a record $111 billion of investment-grade bond supply last month, prices have mostly edged higher, allowing companies to get funding in times of need or opportunity, just as homeowners once easily refinanced or flipped homes.
….David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor’s, said the liquidity is making buyers complacent about risk. “I think there are more similarities than differences,” between the subprime and corporate markets, he said
Clot just out of curiosity I would appreciate your comments on this listing njmls 2723067. This is the one I wwas talking about in my post #189.
“#200 Donald well looks like you are going to be joining your neighbor in the 3 year camp.”
No need for that. In November, the house gets taken off the market indefinitely. I do not want to waste my time with bargain hunters. Once the holidays come, you will be seeing a lot of listings disappearing because many sellers do the same thing and re-list in April.
2723067 looks like a dump. The carpets match the color of my front lawn.
If home prices re supposed to decline 30%, why are you in the market for a house? Could it be that I cannot sell because people are too afraid to buy a house, not because the price is too high?
Fear = perception of risk. Risk is a factor in pricing.
Buyers demand compensation for risk in the form of a lower price. The greater the risk the greater the discounting.
You could say the price is too high given the level of risk (real or perceived) of serious declines in the housing market.
It all comes back to price.
“Once the holidays come, you will be seeing a lot of listings disappearing because many sellers do the same thing and re-list in April.”
YAWN. Been there, done that. Bust.
And only one full bathroom? YIKES!! Get used to waiting in line for the shower.
207,
Next debacle.
#196 Donald: I put off my home purchase one year because of the declining market. Waiting a year is giving me the ability to get more for my money and be more selective about location. I do not plan on waiting forever, but I will not settle for less than what I see as a house that I will be happy to live in for 20 years.
I was once plankton (I guess), but I decided to sit on a rock and wait until I became a bigger fish. I missed the bubble anyway and I did not want to be stuck in a starter home that I paid too much for and could not sell. There may be others with increasing incomes who are deciding to skip the starter home altogether given that for 25-30% more money they can get 65% more house.
“Buyers demand compensation for risk in the form of a lower price.”
It does not work that way. A risk is a gamble and you do not get compensated if you lose. Otherwise it is not a risk. If you jump out of a plane and the parachute does not open,there is no compensation. Either buy with the risk or don’t buy. If you can’t handle the heat, get out of the kitchen!
BC Bob Says:
June 8th, 2007 at 2:30 pm
How about the masses, you included, got sucked into this overpriced, overbought charade. All the elephants have entered the bldg thru the back door, they snuck in. That is now shut. The front door is too small to for the herd to escape. Sell?? To whom?? The office is flooded with sell orders, there are no buy orders at your price. There is a major order imbalance. All the delusional have already been sucked in.
Mr. Duck: Since you cannot digest Bost’s elegant and accurate explanation, please allow me to offer something that cuts through the calculus for you.
You are f$cked like a $2 whore.
3b
That MLS number is not producing a NJ listing when I use realtor.com and advanced search (?)
“That MLS number is not producing a NJ listing when I use realtor.com and advanced search (?)”
You can find the house by going to NJMLS
#211,
So I am supposed to give buyers a heavy discount for a perceived risk in the housing sector. I will definitely add this to my list of things to do when pigs fly.
BC,
Have you taken courses at NYIF? If so, any comments?
jb
James Bednar Says:
June 8th, 2007 at 2:53 pm
BC, Have you taken courses at NYIF? If so, any comments? jb
I have not personally, but from what I hear, you get what you pay for…….
What topic interests you?
Derivatives and risk management
jb
JB,
No, school of hard knocks. Everyone I know, that has taken a course there, has very positive reviews. However, funny you should ask. I’m looking at a couple.
“Derivatives”
JB,
Looking at the same.
“Buyers demand compensation for risk in the form of a lower price.”
It does not work that way. A risk is a gamble and you do not get compensated if you lose. Otherwise it is not a risk. If you jump out of a plane and the parachute does not open,there is no compensation. Either buy with the risk or don’t buy. If you can’t handle the heat, get out of the kitchen!
Yes it does work that way.
Let’s say there are 2 used Toyota Corollas for sale in my town, same mileage & identical everything.
Car “A” is being offered by a reputable dealer, who certifies it is mechanically sound and stands behind it with a good warranty.
Car “B” is being sold “as-is” by Joe Schmoe.
Car “B” will command a lower price than Car “A” because the buyer of car B is taking on the risk that car will have mechanical problems. You could take on the risk and buy car “B”. You might win and end up with a great car at a discounted price. You might lose ending up with a car that dies the next day.
Risk, however, will effect the price.
The carpets match the color of my front lawn.
All 48 square feet? There’s more carpet than you have front lawn.
But I’m sure the back is bigger… if you don’t mind the sound of traffic.
So I am supposed to give buyers a heavy discount for a perceived risk in the housing sector. I will definitely add this to my list of things to do when pigs fly.
Which I guess falls sometime between “when hell freezes over” and when you sell your house.
#210 Dump? oh yeah it nees some help, but I have family in the business, anad I could have that place in ship shape in no time, including another bathroom.
I had big house with all the bells and whistles, don’t need the adiitional upkeep,a nd of course the additional property taxes. Bought it cheap and sold it for a huge profit.
So that house would be perfect for me, excpet of course the price is insane.
#215
I am renting my starter house. It is so obvious that starter homes present the worst value since almost all of the sellers are f@cked borrowers. You are absolutely correct that 20% more money gets you 65% more house.
Anybody know anyone that may have fallen into this trap?
“Often, when considering potential gains, our reasoning is distorted by high levels of excitement, hope, and greed. As greed dominates our thought process, we’re likely to take on more risk than anticipated.”
“Our level of greed is increased when one or more of the following conditions is met:
1. Recent positive price performance of a security one is considering purchasing.
2. Comparison with others who are successful with this investment (often anecdotal).
3. Learning of a large potential payoff.
4. Learning of a high probability (“almost certain”) payoff.
5. Expecting a quick payoff.
6. Liking a company or its products.
7. Having a glamorous association with a company or its products.
8. Wanting badly to make money from the investment.
9. Having a positive prior experience with similar investments.
http://www.marketpsych.com/neuroscience_top_ten.php
When it comes to real estate, the questions on everyone’s lips are: How low is low, and when’s the perfect time to buy back in?
Market corrections follow three basic recovery patterns. A V-shaped recovery where a market experiences a sharp, fast decline but comes out strong once it hits bottom; a U-shaped recovery, where prices decline gradually and recover slowly; and an L-shaped curve, a hard, fast fall with paltry price bounceback following the market trough.
http://www.forbes.com/2007/06/07/housing-trough-resilient-forbeslife-cx_mw_0608realestate.html?partner=daily_newsletter
#229,
Hate to disappoint you, but homes in that price range sell relatviely quickly, even in this market. You will have to pay near asking price or you will not buy.
Here’s one I want ot keep my eye on in Washington Township
SLD EDWARD PL $674,900 11/21/2005
ACT EDWARD PL $869,000 4/3/2006 (Carpet removed and hardwood floor refinished, new tile in entry & kitchen, granite counter top same OLD cabinets,new appliances, alarm system, new carpet 2nd floor)
EXP EDWARD PL $869,000 7/2/2006
ACT EDWARD PL $819,900 7/6/2006
PCH EDWARD PL $799,000 9/6/2006
PCH EDWARD PL $759,000 11/28/2006
EXP EDWARD PL $759,000 12/31/2006
ACT EDWARD PL $759,900 1/21/2007 (New broker)
W-U EDWARD PL $759,900 5/16/2007
ACT EDWARD PL $749,900 6/8/2007 (New broker)
That Forbes piece is interesting..
The forecast for the NYC area market is that the bottom won’t be reached until the first quarter of 2009.
Long way off..
jb
#234 YounG doanld I hate to disappoint you, but there are many others sitting out there at that price and lower, that have been sitting for months.
Nothing to mention the ones that have allegedly sold, and then comw back on teh market when the financing falls through.
I can be patient. Much as you may hate this fact, but we rule this market now, not you or other sellers.
We of the 20% and more down, excellent credit plenty of cash/investments left over after the down payment.
It is our market now. If you want/need to sell, adjust, otherwise take it off, and try again in oh about 10 or 15 years.
MLS# 2719521
Can someone on this board give me an information on this property?
What does everyone think of this house? It is a teardown with a NYC view. Is it overpriced?
http://njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2705532&id=999999
#238
that’s a teardown? looks like irreplaceable prewar architecture to me
“that’s a teardown? looks like irreplaceable prewar architecture to me”
Homes like these, because of their prime location and NYC views, are the first ones to get knocked down and replaced with McMansions.
AdAgencyWoman,
596 Oak Street
Deed 9/23/2002 $1
Taxes: $6,975.78
Lot 87×100
I have a question. Me and my fiancee are looking to start a family in the near future, so we’re looking at places we could actually afford and potentially raise kids in. Looking at houses in the max range of what we could afford (low $200k), I was noticing a LOT of 1 bed 1 bath condos. What’s the deal with these? And who the heck is buying them? The only places we can afford with any kind of space is in the ghettoes of the area. What gives?
From AZ Central:
Wannabe home buyers welcome slump
Kurt Montufar isn’t stressing over the housing slump. He’s actually hoping things get worse.
Like many wannabe homebuyers who were priced out of the market during the last boom, Montufar spends time these days scanning real estate ads and news reports to determine if it’s time to take the plunge and buy.
Foreclosures rising? Great. Cash-strapped sellers pressured into lowering prices because they can’t find buyers? Even better.
“Somebody else’s misfortune could be my happy ending,” said Montufar, 27, a resident of suburban Los Angeles.
Indeed, the advantage is shifting to buyers in many previously high-flying housing markets, as homes take longer to sell and prices level off or begin to fall.
that is a shame– hopefully at least they recycle some of the parts when they tear down a place like that
not sure I understand the allure of living in the suburbs and staring at the city. not very suburban
Let me know when they start tearing that down, I’ll be glad to take some of that “trash” off their hands to help offset the cost of containers.
jb
Surprising news out of California..
Late-May home sales run at 20-year-plus low
If late May home-selling patterns hold for the entire month, we will have just seen the slowest selling May in DataQuick’s 20-year history of O.C. home buying. That means even slower than the ugly days of the early 1990s.
no sense debating with donald. he’s just lonely and wasn’t hugged enough. his presence here is hardly about real estate or his house…
A troll is a person who approaches a board with the specific intention of stirring things up, either as a goal in and of itself or as a means of attacking the board perhaps motivated by opposition to the ethos of the board.
Most trolls are sad people, living their lonely lives vicariously through those they see as strong and successful.
Disrupting a stable newsgroup gives the illusion of power, just as for a few, stalking a strong person allows them to think they are strong, too.
For trolls, any response is ‘recognition’; they are unable to distinguish between irritation and admiration; their ego grows directly in proportion to the response, regardless of the form or content of that response.
Trolls, rather surprisingly, dispute this, claiming that it’s a game or joke; this merely confirms the diagnosis; how sad do you have to be to find such mind-numbingly trivial timewasting to be funny?
Remember that trolls are cowards; they’ll usually post just enough to get an argument going, then sit back and count the responses.
Trolls rarely answer a direct question – they cannot, if asked to justify their twaddle – so they develop a fine line in missing the point.
Trolls are usually sad, lonely folk, with few social skills; they rarely make what most people would consider intelligent conversation.
#245 JB My younger brotehr makes a huge side business of this kind of stuff. When the former consulate of the old Sovier Union was closed in NYC, he was able to remove every single 6 panel door in the place, and the wainscotting and sell it all. Made a fortune.
This is what a lawyer does for fun and profit.
RichNNJ
What does deed $1 mean? New at this. How long has it been on the market? Looks like it needs extensive work for the money they are asking. Thanks
AdAgencyWoman,
It was just listed on May 15 and there is no other listing history for this property (Ridgefield, right?) on NJMLS.
I got the deed information from the tax records. It means it was bought (or sold if you prefer) for $1. It was probably an estate transfer.
RE post 186:
Unfortunately Charles already has too much money wrapped up in keeping the Krispy Kreme franchises operating.
In 2006 we paid over $400 billion in interest to service our debt. If we have seen the lows in rates, remains to be seen, how do we raise the additional $’s required to service our debt? Raise taxes? Cut services? Print/inflate?
BTW,
the thread reads a lot quicker and is more enjoyable if you skip every post that starts:
Donald
or
Richard
You do waste a little time reading the starts of posts responding to them, but it’s still a much better read.
Leave you all with a point to ponder on the trip home.
It’s the transactions that take place that set the market, not the ones that don’t.
jb
thanks for the advice lindsey. now go back to your tonka toys.
#254 Look like a wholw new geneation of people are going to haev to learn that; for them it will not be fun any more.
“China fund may eye BHP Billiton”
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2007-06/08/content_890270.htm
“Could it be that I cannot sell because people are too afraid to buy a house, not because the price is too high? Let me go over to njrereport and cheer up the buyers..”
do you blog in a costume?
off topic, but too funny:
Associated Press
Screaming Paris Hilton Sent Back to Jail
By LINDA DEUTSCH 06.08.07, 3:30 PM ET
Screaming and crying, Paris Hilton was escorted out of a courtroom and back to jail Friday after a judge ruled that she must serve out her entire 45-day sentence behind bars rather than in her Hollywood Hills home.
“It’s not right!” shouted the weeping Hilton, who violated her parole in a reckless driving case. “Mom!” she called out to her mother in the audience.
James Bednar Says:
June 8th, 2007 at 3:00 pm
Derivatives and risk management jb
DUDE – Ait-Sahalia……..screw the cost…expense it…….!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.chicagoexec.net/chicago.nsf/0ED84D5A913C257085256C2F00491180/$File/BOF.pdf
you go……….I’ll show up…we eat here
http://www.billygoattavern.com/history.html
then we go to Cro-Bar and look for Dennis Rodman!
ok…..I’ll calm down…
in addition to NYIF, there are also these options
http://www.scps.nyu.edu/courses/index.jsp?let=F&catId=205
“The only places we can afford with any kind of space is in the ghettoes of the area. What gives?”
The answer is simple young renter. You missed out on the real estate boom in your area. You could have purchased condos at pre-construction prices and flipped them for a profit. Because you missed out on an excellent opportunity to increase your net worth, you are confined to living in the ghetto. Maybe you will get lucky at the Velocity auction.
allow me to add….NYIF is more of a presentation, NYU-SCPS are actual classes with exams that lead up to a certificate if pursued. Even though such an edeavor may seem like a pain, if you study [NOT CRAM], then you retain.
“not sure I understand the allure of living in the suburbs and staring at the city. not very suburban”
Well, all of the rich people understand it quite well. In Fort Lee, Cliffside Park, and Edgewater, you can slap a 7 digit price tag on any piece of garbage with a NYC view and expect to get close to asking price.
Donald Says:
June 8th, 2007 at 5:56 pm
The answer is simple young renter. You missed out on the real estate boom in your area.
Mr. Duck: what a phallus you are! The answer for you is simple….”….You are f$cked like a $2 whore….”
Those NYU classes are surprisingly inexpensive. Wish I’d known they were offering those Summer courses earlier.
jb
chicagofinance,
How does it feel to have thrown away $75,000 that you could have gotten by purchasing your Toll apartment? Yeah, that’s right. I know all about your Kannekt posts.
grim: see if you can find out through the grapevine who are the good instructors….I haven’t worked through that department, so I do not know……credentials are irrelevent….the topic is irrelevent….if you are going to drop the coin, then make sure that the instructor has some gravitas…..see if they would let you audit a summer section for one or two classes…..it seems like a good way to test drive one of these courses….call the professor and interview them…see if he is more clot/bost or reechard/duck.
JB,
I would not be taking advice from someone who missed out on a $75,000 + profit, but then brags about the $1,500 a month he is saving by not buying his apartment from Toll at an insider price.
Donald Says:
June 8th, 2007 at 6:05 pm
chicagofinance,
How does it feel to have thrown away $75,000 that you could have gotten by purchasing your Toll apartment? Yeah, that’s right. I know all about your Kannekt posts.
Achilles: at least I’m not “….f$cked like a $2 whore….”
That’s ture. You are only %$@#ed like a $75,000 whore.
chicagofinance Says:
June 8th, 2007 at 6:13 pm
Donald Says:
June 8th, 2007 at 6:05 pm
chicagofinance,
How does it feel to have thrown away $75,000 that you could have gotten by purchasing your Toll apartment?
to update….that was May…it is June…it is $73,500 ;-)
The bottom line is that most people on this blog made mistakes in the past by passing up good financial opportunities. I made a mistake. CF made one. Hoboken renter made one. JC Renter made one. Hobokenite made one.
CF crying over spilled milk:
“chicagofinance here…
I am a renter that did not buy. I still live in the building.
I could have bought my 2BR view unit for around $590K. What is it worth now? $725K max? maybe less? no upgraded anything
I am saving on an after-tax basis about $1500 a month x 20 months and counting = $30,000 and growing.
I would have put down at the time about $115,000, instead that money has been invested.
You think I am crying over about $75,000? Deal of a lifetime?
Come on…….
Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t turn down a free $75,000, but ultimately what’s the difference, does it affect any decisions that any of us make for those of us that live in this building? Be serious….
There are only 90 or so legacy-Toll renters left, and we will all be gone sooner or later, so go lay the blame elsewhere…..”
“to update….that was May…it is June…it is $73,500 ;-)”
So now we are counting pennies?
You have 4 years and 1 month left until the $1,500 you are saving each month equals the $73,500.
Wouldn’t it have been better to have made the $75,000 at one shot rather than over the course of 4 years?
“For single family houses, nobody is or will be banging down the doors to buy in Cliffside Park, perhaps for your condo shacks”
I alugh at the phrase “condo shack.” In case you do not know, there is a new complex under consturction where 60% of the units will be over 3,000 square feet, which is larger than the average single family house. The largest is 3,300 square feet. Hardly a “shack.”
Donald,
Chill out, grab a drink, head out your backdoor and watch the traffic go by.
The view must be spectacular!
Or maybe spend 2 minutes and mow your front lawn.
What is the big deal about my lot size? In Fort Lee, Cliffside Park, and Edgewater, anyhting under a million has a 50 X 100 lot size. Turst me, you are not going to afford a 150 X 200 lot here. The lot would cost more than my house does; in the 7 digits.
You want a large lot?
http://njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2633909&id=999999
Donald, have a drink, and get thee to a nunnery
“I would have put down at the time about $115,000, instead that money has been invested.”
Hey Duckweed,
You missed the part where Chi, utilizing what would have been a dp, smoked the markets during the time he was renting. You’d be begging him to take your 2/20 for those returns. He’ll lock that in, continue to pocket the difference in rent vs own, and when the credit dervivative market blows up, they’ll be begging him to take their depreciating asset out of their #ss. I forgot, you don’t know what the hell I am talking about regarding the markets. However, like Warren says; “when the tide goes out, well see who’s naked.”
That was for Duck [274]
I know what you mean idiot Bob. Except, it will take him 4 years to make back the difference form what he lost to what he is saving.
Donald,
Is this your competition, in the most desirable section of town, for 659k? Asking?
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/345766240.html
Sweeping views of Manhattan/Hudson, income producing, 570k? I may buy, knock down, it’s automatically worth 2 mil, right?
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/343852018.html
I’m confused, 100k reduction on the Gold Coast? Asking less than 500k on the Gold Coast? Is this possible?
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/343089626.html
“Donald,
Is this your competition, in the most desirable section of town, for 659k? Asking?”
Thanks for the link. You only helped to support my price. In case you are blind, the home for $659,000 is half the size of my house.
“I’m confused, 100k reduction on the Gold Coast? Asking less than 500k on the Gold Coast? Is this possible?”
Yes, it is possible IDIOT. The condo is not new IDIOT. Only new condos get top dollar.
“Sweeping views of Manhattan/Hudson, income producing, 570k? I may buy, knock down, it’s automatically worth 2 mil, right?”
$570,000 is a lot of money for a tear down. If you buy, tear down, and re-build, you will need to spend well over $1 million.
But I thoght Manhattan views, new construction was worth 2 mil in CP?
You have 8 bedromms?
“Except, it will take him 4 years to make back the difference form what he lost to what he is saving.”
You failed to mention his gigantic market returns. You know that stock, S-T-O-C-K, thing, equity not debt? Am I making sense?
Here is why were heading for a crash. look at the appreciation. Poor Sucker!
Sale History & Tax Info
Sale History & Tax Info Sale History
07/21/2006: $370,000
11/01/2001: $156,500
No other sale data is available
Refer to the wisdom of Keith over at Housing Panic:
“Don’t feed the trolls”
JB:
Back to the casting… Can you get me on Emril?
BAM!
“It is our market now. If you want/need to sell, adjust, otherwise take it off, and try again in oh about 10 or 15 years.”
#236 – I love this. It reminds me of that great scene in Goonies when they say “it’s OUR time now!”
Come to think of it, the plot of that movie is based on housing issues.
OK – I’m back. Mets win early.
Look Duckweed…..as if we didn’t know before, you are a clearly two things – 1. a troll, 2. playing yourself off as a dimwit to suck us all in to wasting time responding to you.
Fine – you got me this time, but that’s it. Why? Because I refuse to be questioned by some dime store clown failed Trump.
As I would expect, you completely took the post from kannekt out of context, and I appreciate the fact that Bost at least put more of it where it belongs. By the way, it speaks volumes that you managed to get yourself banned from kannekt given that you are at worst neutral to real estate, if clearly not “pro-“.
First – you left out this post….
I also want to add a comment about Toll Brothers. Through my own dealings, I have learned quite a bit about this company’s culture. Ultimately, what many of you know is that this company does not make optimal business decisions. The company is still strongly driven by Bob Toll’s foibles and emotionalism. He loves making money, but he loves the glory of the kill even more. As a result, even though market conditions would dictate negotiation, his marching orders to the rank and file are hold prices, create a false sense of scarcity, and drag this out.
A true leader who was looking to maximize shareholder value would throw up all of Maxwell Place, Harborside Loft and their other projects as quickly as possible to take advantage of these fleeting and idiosyncratic market conditions. Instead he stubbornly demands that all transactions be done on his terms. His competitors are all dropping prices to move inventory.
I rolled the dice here, but I didn’t realize the house was in the business of inflating someone’s ego instead of being a real publicly traded corporation.
Any of the Toll employees that post here – am I wrong?
You know I am right. This guy has you on a deathmarch, and it is complete unnecessary. Worse yet, it is sadistic.
continuing……
The point on kannekt is that posting legitimate claims is problematic. Most of the threads are infested with realtors and the sales forces of major developments. When one of these actors is backed into a corner they purposely queue up the acrimony and the moderator Devjani-Dev-Dev-Developer pulls everything down that detracts from the profile of his sponsors.
At least justice has been served, because Hoboken411 has killed the kannekt site, and the moderator is left for dead. He deserves it.
continuing…..
Anyway, I cannot bore everyone with all the details, but suffice it to say, I have to bite my tongue when I respond to posts on kannekt. Typically though, Toll’s sales force blames all legitimate complaints about the buildings on the “bitter renters”, when in reality there are several pertinent issues that are consistently whitewashed.
What I am writing below cannot be posted on kannekt, because it will be immediately withdrawn as soon as the moderator notices:
Hudson Tea is a flawed building.
The roof leaks – and Toll or the reserve fund of the condo association will need to place up to $3M-$5M in upgrades to remediate it. Toll has ignored this issue.
The windows were improperly designed and constructed, and further, the contractor went bankrupt during the installation. All the windows in the building need to be replaced. Toll has ignored this issue. Further, they have a full time maintenance staff on site that spends roughly 75% of their time year-round on scaffolds constantly squirking caulk into the window frames so that the reduce [not eliminate] water leakage into the walls. My own unit has seen water damage on several occasions. The annual cost of this activity is about $400,000 – TO SQUIRT CAULK IN DEFECTIVE WINDOWS!
Anyway, I was part of a group of people that performed our own independent assessment of this building, and we came to the conclusion that it is a piece of $hit. Toll was asking a high price at the time, discounted 7.5%. In April 2005, the clear answer was “you have to be f—ing kidding me”. The are asking high prices for damaged goods. We also saw what Toll was doing at the Maxwell Place site and knew that these guys were adept at creating WTC Ground Zero conditions. We are talking dust storms in the Sahara.
Further, we had clear evidence that the RENTAL apartments in the building were going to convert to rent control units at the point of the condo conversion.
As a resounding vote of their opinion, ONLY 130 out of 525 units took Toll up on their offer. The general attitude of residents two years ago “Toll is a bunch of pigs”.
continuing…..
It gets worse. Toll treats the building as a construction zone. If you ask workmen they refer to the building as such, and have an f u attitude. To this day, my wife is traumatized by workmen jackhammering floors, unannounced men hanging outside of our windows, polyurethane liberally being applied everywhere, thin walls etc.
We have finally knuckled under and bought a $600 air purifier for the sake of the baby.
continuing…..
Which brings up a big point. So in 2005, my wife and I make a “slam dunk” decision to keep renting and also have a rent controlled apartment. However, this is Hudson County, and Toll is a big developer, so magically [making a long story short] Toll manages to win this argument. The Hudson Tea building had a rent control exemption, because Hudson County in the 1980’s had creating this legislation to entice developers to invest in building large scale rental buildings. The exemption was provided to the original builders of Hudson Tea and is mean to maintain and increase the stock of rental units. However, Toll is converting these apartments to condos. THEY SHOULD FORFEIT THE EXEMPTION as a result. Because the conversion serves to ELIMINATE rental units from the market. Without RENT CONTROL, Toll for the last 3 years has been aggressively [9% -> higher is considered egregious] raising rent to EFFECTIVELY EVICTS legacy renters. They are succeeding – renters are leaving. These apartment are being sold as condos. THESE ACTIONS FLY IN THE FACE OF THE SUBSTANCE OF THE RENT CONTROLE EXEMPTION – increase the stock of rental units on the market.
Toll wins.
continued….
Don’t get me wrong…..this building wonderful [but flawed]. The neighborhood is great and getting better.
Bottom line: in 2005, you are staring down the RE bubble, you expect to have rent control, you are dealing with a developer who is scum, you see a flawed property, you have to buy AS-IS/no warranty of any type, you see plans for an endless supply of more units flooding the market.
Easy answer. Who knew of sub-prime, I/O’s, lax lending standards, mass stupidity?
I have the clincher, but I have to go or my wife will kill me. I will finish this off in a couple of hours.
Chi,
You got me at Mets win early. The walking wounded in the Bronx need all the help we can get, wildcard. Unfortunately, I have to hope we can push one by the mighty Pirates.
Toll is s*it. This chart may be representative of RE values in the near future. Of course, all disclaimers.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=TOL
I have the clincher, but I have to go or my wife will kill me. I will finish this off in a couple of hours.
Your killing me here. Its a facinating story and now your just going to leave?
“But I thoght Manhattan views, new construction was worth 2 mil in CP?”
It is idiot. There is a new home on the market with NYC views for $2,599,000. There was also another one that used to be on the market for $2,225,000, but it is not in the MLS anymore. Perhaps it was sold.
Better chart, two year;
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TOL&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
Long RE, with no equity?? The above show is coming to your neighborhood. It may be 2-3 years, doesn’t matter. This market has spoken loud and clear, flush out all the crap. Write off the bad debts and move on. The over-leveraged, leased tin, credit card milk/cookies and those that pay 850k for a yard that resembles a sumo wrestlers pit? Flushed away, gone with the wind.
Come to think of it, if I pay 850K for a roof, I damn better have enough room in my yard for a party. Tensions would surface if I told my wife, for comfort purposes, to limit the guest list to 5 mini me’s.
“If you want/need to sell, adjust, otherwise take it off, and try again in oh about 10 or 15 years.”
No thanks, but it does not cost me anything to keep the house on the market. Buyers are also not getting the deep discounts they were hoping for. I have been keeping track of the local asking prices and I have not seen any recent price drops. Last year lots of people, including myself, were dropping asking prices a lot, but sellers have reached their rock bottom and will not go down any further.
“It is idiot”
That word is certainly a compliment coming from such a moron.
I met with a fixed income trader today. No need to explain what their job function is. The totally clueless would not comprehend. I told him, this week, I heard that mortgage rates will not/are not moving higher since the fed is on hold. He assumed that someone on my 10 year old baseball team stated this. My answer? Don’t insult my young ball players.
Mr. CF…can I call you that? Stop yer whinin’, Pansy-Pants. You’re making that sh*t up. It’s not “caulk,” it’s professional-grade weather-proofing, Bucko.
And another thing, if your wife would simply use the 22 rounds we sent over for earplugs, she might actually like the feeling of security most women get when they know men are building things nearby. If she bothered to bake them a cake and be nice to them, they’d let up on the noise every once in a while….at least long enough to scarf it down.
If you hate that place enough, I’ll give you a discount on about 300 nice (well…for at least two years) new McMansions. We’re even working on the blueprints for do-it-yourself subdivision on the things.
OK – Hunter started fussing, so my wife gave me a reprieve. I just had a Haagen Dazs bar and I am sitting here with a tumbler full of Laphroaig…..aahhhhh.
“There is a new home on the market with NYC views for $2,599,000.”
Then the knock-down, asking 570K is a deal/steal. Maybe, another 400-500k to build a 2. If you can get 4-4.5 a month, this view must command 5-6k, per floor, a month. I’ll put a mil into it and flip for 2 mil. Amazing nobody else has jumped, why is this negotiable?
Who would want to buy a house from idiot Bob? He probabaly cut corners on the houses and they will fall apart in the next two years. He probabaly used that synthetic stucco garbage that is prone to mold and water intrusion.
As per Doonald, “Buyers are also not getting the deep discounts they were hoping for. I have been keeping track of the local asking prices and I have not seen any recent price drops. Last year lots of people, including myself, were dropping asking prices a lot, but sellers have reached their rock bottom and will not go down any further.”
Um. excuse me? You are deluding yourself.
Better yet, Put UP or Shut UP:
Let us know when you sell your ‘castle’ (including moat and, er…uh….troll) and what price it sells for…
This is where the metal meets the MEAT — as in REALITY.
Anyway, I want to make sure that people understand that Hudson Tea is a nice building, so there are clear reasons for us to live here. I know I spent the better part of the prior posts trashing the place. It is really too bad.
I also want to clear something else up. There is a big disconnect with the residents and the people that argue about conditions in the buildings. There are many people who are professionals, work full days, are out the door at 7:30AM and don’t return until 7PM. They are not aware of the tons of bull$hit that happens around the buildings all day. There are many who think the building is just wonderful, but the real issue is that they are simply not home enough to know all the problems. Also, the buildings defects a latent, and Toll is certainly not going to bring them to light until the sales process is over and they are completely off the hook. The building is a ticking time bomb, and large “special assessments” are on the way. The just may not happen until 2010-2011.
So Bob, did you use EIFS siding (Exterior Insulation Finishing System)? If you did, you better sart looking for a lawyer because it is only a matter of time until you get sued.
“We’re even working on the blueprints for do-it-yourself subdivision on the things.”
I’d rather meet Tony Soprano in the meadows of South Kearny and make a deal for empty containers. At least they can withstand 20 mile per hour winds.
Do it yourself houses? Can I pick one up in Ikea?
It’s not economics, it’s moromics.
This yahoo article is pricless:
http://realestate.yahoo.com/Real_estate_news/story?s=rytimes/item-4bcc1fc619fd6bf106034420ddf198de.html
My favorite is There Is No Bubble: “the value of real estate isn’t driven by speculation”.
Is Lereah employed by Yahoo now?
Anyway, The Clincher……clearly something that I won’t waste the time explaining to those klowns on kannekt…..my wife and I were blessed with Hunter Charles chicagofinance this past October. My wife was schedule to return to work in March. Basically, around December, it was pretty clear that she was not going to return to work. My wife was really concerned. She is career minded and had a high profile position at a financial services company in lower Manhattan. I basically said to her….we are renting, we have no debt, you have to do what you have to do. She quit.
She spends her days seeing all of our neighbors kids with their nannies. We have the priviledge of seeing Hunter change. My son’s first words are not going to be in Spanish or with a lilting West Indian accent. $73,500? You have to be kidding me. Who gives a crap about such nonsense…..if we owned our apartment, we would have to sell and move immediately or else my wife would have to work, which means that I would have no wife, because she would either divorced me or do away with herself.
Do I sleep well at night……like a baby……uh..errr…how about like a tired dad?
The article is right about new construction costing more than older homes. Anyone will tell you that the cost of construction has significantly increased. Labor is more. Materials are more. Transporting the materils cost more. The price of homes may have come down, but the cost of construction HAS NOT.
There is a new home on the market with NYC views for $2,599,000.
New?
ACT $3,250,000 8/3/2006
PCH $2,999,000 9/19/2006
ACT* $2,999,000 9/26/2006
ARR $2,999,000 9/27/2006
EXT $2,999,000 1/31/2007
PCH $2,799,000 2/19/2007
PCH $2,599,000 5/7/2007
“Can I pick one up in Ikea?”
Only if its applicable to sandboxes. Again, to fit 5 mini me’s.
Some people take one fell swoop of cash off the table. Others look in the rear view mirror.
Can I pick one up in Ikea?
Speaking of Ikea, did you pick up more plastic furniture for that empty house of yours?
It’s looking pretty bare.
Hey Rich,
Can you look up sales data for Grant Avenue in Cliffside Park? The home was last listed for $2,225,000. Did it sell/go under contract?
“It’s looking pretty bare.”
That’s the idea. Don’t you watch Designed to Sell? You should not have furniture covering every sqaure foot of the house. The less furniture, the bigger the room looks.
HEHEHE Says:
June 8th, 2007 at 11:21 pm
This yahoo article is pricless:
hehehe: what the hell?
There is no risk.
Save the term risk for high stakes poker in Vegas.
Buying real estate isn’t inherently risky. But it isn’t a get-rich-quick scheme, either. It’s a formula for building long term wealth.
Don’t insult my 10 year old baseball players, assuming they are Donnie.
“Don’t you watch Designed to Sell?:
How the hell do you top that?
I think the address is either 7 or 9 Grant Avenue. Both of these homes were for sale recently. One was $2,225,000 and the other was $1,999,000. There is a price difference because the more expensive one has 5 bedrooms while the cheaper one only has 4.
Neither of the homes are in the MLS so either they sold or the sellers took them off the market.
“How to Fix, Not Break Up, the Subprime Business”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/08/AR2007060801289.html
The way the couch is pushed up against the wall, it looks like a bus stop. And one room has no funiture but a well placed vase.
Time to call someone to “stage” that place.
SLD GRANT AVE $1,325,000 9/2/2004
ACT GRANT AVE $2,225,000 4/17/2006
ACT* GRANT AVE $2,225,000 9/29/2006
ARR GRANT AVE $2,225,000 10/9/2006
EXT GRANT AVE $2,225,000 10/10/2006
EXP GRANT AVE $2,225,000 4/18/2007
Year to date the highest sale was $1.8M
First listing expired, this listing was pulled, then expired
SLD GRANT AVE $1,015,000 1/7/2003
SLD GRANT AVE $1,275,000 9/2/2004
ACT GRANT AVE $1,999,000 4/26/2006
W-T GRANT AVE $1,999,000 7/28/2006
EXP GRANT AVE $1,999,000 10/26/2006
Chi 323,
My little girl Julianna is 2 months old. Hands down the biggest benefit to renting is the fact that my wife can take an unpaid extended leave of absence to be with our baby. Our apartment is nothing special, but is comfortable and I can afford all of the bills with no debt and can still put some money away. A lot of people talk about the intangible value of home ownership, but to me, the intangible value of not worrying about money and affording my wife the opportunity to spend a lot of quality time with out baby can’t be beat.
If we bought, she would have to return to work the day after her disability ran out (this week or next) and our little 2 month old would spend most of her waking hours in day care being raised by strangers.
To me, this is the most compelling reason for contemplating a move outside of NJ. I feel like we can stay here and go to work every day just to pay the mortgage and hopefully keep up with out-of-control property tax increases. Or, we can move, so that I can work so that my wife can stay home, if she chooses, to be with our kids and we can live a much less stressful lifestyle.
Moving, though, is a tough decision.
3b (208)-
Sorry…I have no NJMLS access. Out of my area.
chicagofinance Says:
June 8th, 2007 at 11:29 pm
HEHEHE Says:
June 8th, 2007 at 11:21 pm
This yahoo article is pricless:
hehehe: what the hell?
Found this at the bottom of the page:
“A REALTOR® is a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS®”
So their’s your author.
Donald (216)-
Er, Donald…the heat’s not on buyers right now. In fact, there’s little-to-no pressure on them at all.
You should be heeding your own advice. Unless, that is, you’re already strategizing your next move in April ’08…when your house will be worth about 10-12% less than its current value.
From Donald @ 310
“Last year lots of people, including myself, were dropping asking prices a lot, but sellers have reached their rock bottom and will not go down any further.”
I didn’t realize all the sellers were in a club or union, and named you their spokesperson. Thanks for this information. Silly me would have sat around for a year or more, waiting for atleast some sellers to lower their prices. But here Donald has cut through the fog of war, and told us we can stop wasting precious time and just start buying places already.
Way to be a market mover, Donnie.
cf –
AMEN! We made the same decision when our daughter was born, an added plus…our NW has increased, let us say, at a rate quite above even the highest home appreciation data I have seen in NJ.
afe
The article is right about new construction costing more than older homes. Anyone will tell you that the cost of construction has significantly increased. Labor is more. Materials are more. Transporting the materils cost more. The price of homes may have come down, but the cost of construction HAS NOT.
A. This isn’t an article. It’s an advertisement.
B. Construction costs increased largely due to the housing bubble putting pressure on supply. Now that construction is slowing, materials costs are dropping as well. In fact, framing lumber has fallen from $473 per thousand board feet (MBF) in early 2005 (peak bubble) to $295 per MBF today.
C. Construction costs don’t play much into setting home prices in Northern NJ. Prices here are determined more by the scarcity of land, which dwarf construction costs. In other markets, say rural Montana, you have a decision to either buy an existing home or build a home down the street, construction costs will factor more heavily into setting prices there. Home prices, adjusting for quality, would basically be determined by the marginal cost of building the next house.
JB,
Do you have any more recent predictions from the Dean of Bloustein. This link from 2003. Wondering what he is saying now!!
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9B07E0DE143EF934A25753C1A9659C8B63
You can’t say I’m someone who’s not sympathetic to an unpopular opinion around these parts (God knows I’ve offered enough of my own), but isn’t it about time we all quit feeding the pellet-brained trolls?
I’ve probably been the worst offender here, and I’m sorry. I indulged, because I just like to fight. However, I’ve had my fill. No mas.
This guy Donald isn’t even amusing anymore. Even Reech and make will sometimes utter something that makes sense; Donald- on the other hand- seems to be losing IQ points with each post.
HIs brain is being s@cked into cyberspace.
Er, Donald.
Uh, you’re not gonna like this.
Sold data for Cliffside Park sorted by price/date from 4/5/05 to today:
$1M+
SLD OAKDENE AVE $1,315,000 7/24/2005
SLD EDGEWATER RD $1,275,000 9/30/2005
SLD HILLTOP TER $1,165,000 4/9/2006
SLD OVERLOOK AVE $1,500,000 7/12/2006(Leased 2/2007 @ $2,200/month)
SLD FOX TER $1,700,000 2/16/2007
SLD HILLTOP TER $1,180,000 5/15/2007
$900k – $1M
SLD HIGHRIDGE AVE $900,000 1/30/2006 (For sale $969k)
$800k – $899k
SLD SUMMIT TER $840,000 4/4/2005 (For sale $869k)
$700k – $799k
SLD CORTLAND PL $700,000 6/1/2005
$600k – $699k
17 (SEVENTEEN!) homes sold, only ONE in 2007
Clotpoll,
You are absolutely right. I am wondering myself if Donald is really just a Fumb Duck or if he is just playing us to get attention and illicit responses.
When he posts, he does takes over this board though. It becomes all about Donald…and you are right, it is getting old.
I’d be the first to take the “ignore Donald” pledge. It won’t be easy with the softballs he throws out, but if we don’t ignore the Don, the NJ RE Report will just deteriorate into the argue with Don blog instead of a mature and informed discussion on the state of real estate in NJ.
forget that request JB…answered my question looking at your archives
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2005/12/
So, what do real-estate people think about the suggestion recently made by James Hughes that people not buy a house now — unless they are planning to live in the place for 10 years?
Hughes, a real-estate expert, is dean of the Bloustein School of Policy and Public Planning at Rutgers and believes that house prices are very high.
#348 hear, hear.
stop playing music to the deaf.
and
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/04/25/the-housing-market-is-still-in-the-tank/
James Hughes, dean of the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University, said he will be watching for the New Jersey market to officially bottom out.
“We’re still trending down, and we don’t know when that will stop, ” Hughes said, “but probably not anytime soon.”
Asked why the Realtors were more upbeat about the market, Hughes replied: “They have to be. They want to encourage people to buy.”
So, what do real-estate people think about the suggestion recently made by James Hughes that people not buy a house now — unless they are planning to live in the place for 10 years?
I think it is reasonably good advice. Don’t buy unless you really plan to live there for awhile. I’m proably more bearish that he, but Huges is in no way a NJ RE shill.
Also, the conclusions Huges drew in the earlier report you posted were based on 2002 data (I read the full report). Basically he concluded that prices were rising as a result of low interest rates, a recovery from an overcorrection from the late 80’s bubble and a recovering economy. He also thought, at the time, that 2002 values were now “fair” and that appreciation would return to more normal levels. In retrospect, I think his conclusions were pretty reasonable at the time.
but isn’t it about time we all quit feeding the pellet-brained trolls?
In a word, yes. The Donald show has gone on way too long. He gets off on taunting people and getting responses. He doesn’t much care if the responses are cordial or hostile—he just likes the reaction. Stop giving it to him.
I’ve probably been the worst offender here, and I’m sorry. I indulged, because I just like to fight.
Clot, I don’t think you’re the worst offender. I think that honor goes to the donald. I remember your early posts and yes, it’s clear that you like to fight! :-) But you’ve become a major contributor here. If you did cause any initial “grief”, you more than made up for it. And it’s always healthy for any group to be challenged. Donald is not challenging us–at all; He’s just taking up space that could be better utilized by other posters.
JB: Is it time to consider asking mssr. duck (as Chifi puts it) to leave the forum? This is not a free speech issue. People don’t have the right to say whatever they want, wherever they want, whenever they want. And it’s clear that his only goal is to cause disruption.
rent-
agreed. I was happy to see that he corrected himself in the intervening years. I don’t think anyone could have predicted what has happened since 2002-2003.
afe
“My son’s first words are not going to be in Spanish or with a lilting West Indian accent.”??
as an immigrant this comment stinks…god forbid the kid’s first words arent english and he learns another language while growing up.
Is it time to consider asking mssr. duck (as Chifi puts it) to leave the forum?
Nah. And actually, I don’t think he’s a troll.
I think he really believes (or really WANTS to) that he can sell his house for the same, if not more than what he paid in 2005.
The fact that he ignores inflation (let alone closing costs) or makes statements without any supportive data may be frustrating to some, but I enjoy showing him (and those that lurk) the actual truth with data (if only his realtor/agent would…).
Ok, I do needle him from time to time but usually only when he makes crass statements about another’s prospective home or neighborhood. Or when he gets so arrogant that I think he needs a view of himself in the mirror.
Speaking of which:
What is the big deal about my lot size?
It’s not the lot size. It’s that you arrogantly write as if own a house in some exclusive neighborhood because you’re east of Palisade Ave. You talk about wealthy neighbors with NYC views that command large sums of cash as if this has a reflection on the value of your home.
Dude, you’re not on the cliff.
I’m mostly a lurker but my .02 is that
Donald is seriously detracting from the quality of this blog and reducing time spent on more interesting issues.
Just an update: I was the atty who bought a 640K house late last year in So. westchester on about 275K income; we got the house about a 10% off the comps at the time. We had a baby on the way and wanted out of our 2br Manhattan apt. Now I’m kind of wishing we had waited. My goal at the time was to buy a cheap house and invest the extra income elsewhere as it was pretty clear RE was about to tank. I can tell you after PITI, the nanny and other expenses, we’re not saving nearly as much as I had hoped. I think we’ll be fine as we plan to stay for quite awhile and the market is holding up better than most places but it sure would’ve been nice to have that 20% DP to invest.
Bottom line is that owning is always more expensive than you think.
#98
Do you have any idea how expensive it is to keep this site up? The money I invest in this site sure as heck isn’t going to be wasted on the bandwidth involved in allowing free advertising,
JB: Whom is your ISP?
Try startlogic.com. For $6/month, you get 300G bandwidth per month. For $20/month, 1T bandwidth.
This site can’t be hosted on a shared platform. Bandwidth isn’t the issue, it’s that the WP application requires massive cpu and mem. It just doesn’t scale gracefully once you hit high levels of utilization. We tried a number of hosting platforms and had issues everywhere. We’re now running on a quad xeon VPS with 2tb ram.
jb
Some news from Baltimore..
Region’s home prices slip
The average home price in the Baltimore region fell for the first time in six years last month, reflecting a sputtering housing market that continues to lose momentum.
The decline was small – just a notch more than 1 percent – and prices fell from year-earlier levels in only half the region’s six jurisdictions, according to statistics released yesterday by Metropolitan Regional Information Systems Inc. But the decrease, accompanied by a nearly 17 percent drop in the number of homes sold and a surge in listings, signals that an end to the housing slump is not yet in sight.
“Clearly things are going to get worse, with prices likely falling somewhat, new housing starts slowing and days on market increasing. We’re in for a bumpy ride, but not a fall off the cliff,” said Richard Clinch, director of economic research at the University of Baltimore’s Jacob France Institute.
From Rocky Mountain News:
It’s a renter’s market
One question my friends and colleagues have asked me repeatedly over the past six months is: Are you still renting? Yes! I sold my house more than a year ago and continue to rent.
Back in late 2005, I became anxious about my investment in the American dream after spending a considerable amount of time and effort researching several factors that I thought would influence housing prices. At the time, I was nervous about housing and ended up selling my house in early 2006 after owning for eight years.
Based on the outlook for housing, I will likely be renting for one to two more years. While many factors that influence housing prices have turned negative, I suspect we have not yet hit bottom. In fact, housing prices should head lower throughout the rest of this year and next year as well. Why? Housing inventories remain high, delinquencies and foreclosures are set to rise as homes purchased in the past few years by speculators and individuals with teaser-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages come back onto the market, affordability is low, and sentiment and risk appetite have shifted negatively. Most importantly, the availability of credit is set to take a turn for the worse as lenders tighten credit standards.
This is all great news for renters and buyers who are patient. Over time, housing prices and interest rates should decline, resulting in improved affordability. This adjustment, however, will take time and occur over a period of years, not months. Housing is illiquid and prices are sticky. As a result, potential buyers should exercise patience and not jump back into the housing market too early. A year ago, I described the state of the U.S. housing market as “the next Nasdaq bubble.” The Nasdaq took more than 2 1/2 years to go from peak to trough. I suspect housing prices could display a similar pattern, and we are still more than a year away from the bottom. Given these risks, I prefer renting rather than owning, and an investment strategy that favors defense over offense.
#359
Good to know the limitation of WP.
Have you tried to host this website at home?
Use DDNS ($20/yr?) and buy a server (Dell PowerEdge: ~$1000).
On the Yahoo Piece , you got to love this paragraph..
“But even if you have to work two jobs and barely scrape by to make your own mortgage payment, you are building equity that over time will be quite substantial.”
While I like the idea of thinking about a mortgage as “forced savings”. I really fear for those whose home is their only savings.
Working two jobs to service crippling debt? Sounds like quite a Sisyphusian endeavour. Or maybe serfdom is a better way of looking at it.
What about all those folks using I/O and Neg/Am loans? Perhaps they should look into a third job so that they might begin to pay back some of that principal?
jb
1. 2003-2005 who knew about toxic loans being as big as they did it kept the game going an extra few years.
2. I have friends sayiung upstate along 17 is going to be the next big thing, 100 miles from the city 100-150 K starter homes 3-4 hosptials in the area to work at. Some of you said as an RN that I can move out of the area.
Other than no NP grad school what’s the drawback?
as an immigrant this comment stinks…god forbid the kid’s first words arent english and he learns another language while growing up.
ADA-
I am glad u mentioned that as I did not agree with that part of CF’s comments. It is not really that my daughter will grow up with X accent that I care about since I am an immigrant too(and as my family back home puts it, you (I) have an American accent) but rather that we wanted our daughter to learn both cultures. She speaks in our native language to us and in English to everyone else. She can converse easily with our relatives back home, she enjoys children’s stories/songs in our native language and hopefully when she is older will enjoy the rich literature. We could not have taught her all of this and exposed her to our cultural background as easily if we were both working out of the home. Now when she is a teenager she may rebel and tell us she cares hoot about our cultural background (like I did) but at least she is exposed to it and she has a choice about making it a part of her life when she is an adult (like I did).
I think the issue is that the choices we make now influence the outcome of our children in the future. Period. I have a good friend who is a single mom and she HAS to work but she decided to move into her parents house and take a lower paying job so that her daughter could be raised by family instead of a babysitter.
I don’t think everyone has to make the same choice but I think CF correctly pointed out, this is another benefit of “renting”.
afe
Could someone access give me a little info on mls 2396300?
Just curious whether it’s under contract. It’s across the street from a family member and they moved out this week with the for sale sign still up.
I know they bought in ’04 for $370K and the current asking is $439.
Thanks in advance!
Jaywalk
ADA & AFE: I appreciate what you may consider to be an off-color comment. However, I think you would appreciate my comment more if you lived in my neighborhood and beared witness to the comings and goings. The whole process is rather creepy. It has nothing to do xenophobia, and more of a commentary on complete strangers bearing responsibility for the most important work. Also being married to someone who needed to ensure complete background checks were done as part of her job, it is fascinating how easily so many “well to do” [better described as the self-absorbed] offload such an important piece of lifework to anybody.
Come to my neck of the woods and see.
Can anyone say “PRICE REDUCTION”
ZipRealty Price Track:
Price Reduced: 09/05/06 — $551,000 to $499,900
Price Reduced: 04/03/07 — $499,900 to $449,000
Price Reduced: 04/16/07 — $449,000 to $429,000
Price Reduced: 05/02/07 — $429,000 to $419,000
Price Reduced: 06/07/07 — $419,000 to $397,000
Jay,
Mount Vernon in Nutley? Still active.
OLP: $449,900
LP: $439,900
DOM: 56
Purchased 11/2004 for $370,000. Don’t know if they did the renovations, or the previous owner. The price reduction took place just about a month ago.
jb
From the Wall Street Journal:
Shoppers for Mortgages Say ‘Ouch!’
Decline in Treasurys
Sends Rates Climbing;
Looking Toward Munis
By MICHAEL HUDSON and JEFF D. OPDYKE
June 9, 2007; Page B1
The drop in U.S. government bond prices this past week is expected to cause pain for some homeowners and mortgage shoppers, and bring fresh opportunities to income investors.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which moves in the opposite direction to the price, jumped above the psychologically significant 5% threshold, ending Friday at 5.119%, up from 4.955% a week earlier. The 10-year’s yield is now at its highest level since July 2006.
If yields continue to rise, investors in long-term bonds could see real losses if they sell, something bondholders haven’t felt in more than a decade. Bond mutual funds could also post losses. If prices stabilize, bonds may end up looking more attractive than stocks.
…
For new home buyers and those looking to refinance a mortgage, the bond-price jump will likely cause the cost of homeownership to rise. Mortgage rates closely follow the 10-year Treasury. As such, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has climbed to 6.61% from 6.32% in mid-May. On a $250,000 mortgage, that is the equivalent of adding nearly $50 a month to a mortgage payment.
Still, if you are looking to buy a house or refinance, fixed-rate mortgages are likely your best bet. The average rate on an adjustable-rate mortgage that is fixed for five years before the interest rate resets is 6.52%, only nominally different than the 30-year mortgage. “You’re getting very little benefit now [from an ARM] in exchange for a whole lot of interest-rate risk down the road,” says Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com.
For homeowners looking down the barrel of a pending rate adjustment on their ARMs, the pain in your pocketbook could get worse fairly quickly. On ARMs that are just now readjusting, Mr. McBride says rates are set to hit between 7.25% and 7.5%. That will hurt homeowners who, for instance, took out mortgages three years ago when the initial interest rate was 4.5%. For these homeowners, pending payments on a $250,000 mortgage could rise by nearly $450 a month.
Thank you for the information Rich, but 2 homes were sold in 2007:
SLD FOX TER $1,700,000 2/16/2007
SLD HILLTOP TER $1,180,000 5/15/2007
Thank you for the information Rich, but 2 homes were sold in 2007
Your welcome.
Your point?
Do you think they are comparable?
Nothing has sold in your target price range for 2 years.
” And one room has no funiture but a well placed vase.”
There is a second couch in the room that is not visible. Besides, that is the living room and most people don’t use them. They use the family room. But I bet you did not know that since you live in an apartment.
“Nothing has sold in your target price range for 2 years.”
Why is that? Why do people buy homes for half my asking price and double my asking price? That does not make sense. Why are people avoiding the $800-$900k price range.
#368. I’m with you, ChiFi. My husband and I decided before having our kid that we wanted to be there to raise him.
Not that we wouldn’t welcome part time help now and then with the added plus of his learning and being exposed to another language and culture.
We are spoiled in that we get to spend a lot of time with him (we don’t own yet and have the benefit of socking away a pile of dough – investments, 401K, etc) rather than stressing over which bill to pay.
Our financial security is paramount.
sl
Why are people avoiding the $800-$900k price range.
Because there is nothing of worth in that price range.
Donald,
As a homeowner, I agree with all of the renters here and applaud them for not reaching for some POS leading to astronomical monthly payments. I think anybody waiting to buy a house should continue to wait and save their money. And one more thing; if I had $800,000 in cash, I’d burn it before I’d buy a house in Cliffside Park or Fort Lee or Edgewater. Again, I own my house.
not having a mortgage — minus $40,000 or more.
not paying a house worth of maintenance and utilities — minus $12,000
not paying property taxes — minus $10,000 or more
having enough money to be there for our child? PRICELESS
sl
Why is that? Why do people buy homes for half my asking price and double my asking price? That does not make sense. Why are people avoiding the $800-$900k price range.
I’ve been through Cliffside Park on a number of occasions, but I’m not entirely familiar with the town. Perhaps there are desirable and non-desirable sections, with little in the middle. Any location on the Palisades will a view is going to demand a premium. Sans view and location, is there really any reason to live in Cliffside Park?
jb
Question:
If my realtor happens to be the listing broker and I make a bid for a price that he has hinted at, how is it that not less than a few hours later I am told that there is a significantly higher bid on the table. What gives? Shouldn’t the realtor have given me a better whisper # to get me in the game? I just don’t get it. Help me to understand.
Plenty of other towns display a strong dichotomy of location. Some good examples in my neighborhood are Glen Ridge, Montclair, and Bloomfield. You can’t possibly look at North Mountain comps to gauge pricing on the south end. Same goes for GR. Westfield, to some extent, is the same. You’ve got the multi-million dollar sections, and then you’ve got the rest of the town.
Heck, look at East Side park in Paterson, or around Branchbrook in Newark. There are still homes demanding serious premiums compared to the rest of the town.
630 Park, in Paterson, just sold for $900,000. 235 Delavan, in Newark, just went for just about $900,000.
What does that tell us about any other home in either Newark or Paterson?
Nothing. Apples and oranges.
jb
Help me to understand.
Who is representing you in this transaction?
Unless both parties have agreed to a disclosed dual relationship (which doesn’t sound likely here), you’ve got no representation.
Either you are getting played, or you were used to play the other party.
jb
AdAgencyWoman,
This is what realtors do, I’ve been through it a hundred times. They’re tour guides who have a ‘license to fleece’.
GSMLS inventory hits 35,000. If it keeps climbing from here, we’ll be drowning in property for sale.
Wow 35,000 !!! My earlier prediction was of end of june, we reached there very early. I also think there is significant increase in FSBO count. Unfortunately, that is not easy to track.
James/Gary,
I thought that the realtor that showed me the property and had me do the paperwork for the offer was my representative. They told me that they represented both the seller and buyers since it was a listing in their office. Hey, I am so new at this that I feel like I am going to getting fleeced somehow. We are not willing to put in a counter so the whole thing is moot right now.
Chifi:
Hunter, please tell me that is a family name and did not come from the HGTV classic House Hunters :)
One more thing…can some of these “offers” that beat yours be fiction? Don’t want to stir things up but can things get that down and dirty?
Rich –
” Ok, I do needle him from time to time but usually only when he makes crass statements about another’s prospective home or neighborhood. Or when he gets so arrogant that I think he needs a view of himself in the mirror.”
You’re wasting your time, some people are just deficient in the ability to self reflect.
It’s an illness, you can’t talk someone out of that.
Duck hunting season starts in fall. I’m sure this season we will find a lot of sitting ducks. I’m hungry :)
#365 Upstate is never gooing to be the next up and coming area,it has been dying since IBM left all those years ago.
And with prices coming back down, people who would have considered those long commutes will not have to. Prices in those areas will drop even more.
Like the Pocono’s now known as the ghetto in the woods.
James Bednar Says:
June 9th, 2007 at 9:57 am
From the Wall Street Journal:
“You’re getting very little benefit now [from an ARM] in exchange for a whole lot of interest-rate risk down the road,” says Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com.
grim: this could change rather quickly if we get more of an upward slope….
#355 ada You might feel differently if it was reversed.
HEHEHE Says:
June 9th, 2007 at 11:07 am
Chifi: Hunter, please tell me that is a family name and did not come from the HGTV classic House Hunters :)
hehehe: grandfathers are Harry, Charles, and Grescia whose nickname was Harry. We started at Harry Charles, but my brother-in-law’s middle name is Hunter, so in an inspired moment, it became Hunter Charles.
Do you know what Hunter means? One who hunts :)
Thanks Clot
AdAgencyWoman,
My wife and I made a bid for a house in mid 2000 after the house was on the market for two hours. By the next morning, our realtor “representing” us told us that multiple bids came in on the house. Now, naive that I was at the time, I said to the realtor, “well, what is the highest bid?” The realtor said she couldn’t tell us, it was “against the law” to do so. She told us to keep bidding and she’ll let us know if we’re in the game. That was her words.
Like idiots, we bid $5,000 higher and a HALF HOUR LATER, she calls back and says it ain’t high enough. I said, well how do we know this is indeed the truth about these bids and her response was “just trust me”. It sounded very shady and my wife said forget it. We told the realtor we decided to hold off on looking for a house.
This is just one of many wonderful stories we have when dealing with realtors in the past.
Perhaps James can shed some light on dual relationships.
#277 Donald Last post to you, because I am going ot take the advice offered and just ignore you. Don’t know what your agenda is, and now do not care. You do however have some serious, serious issues. If you are a troll, its not funny any more.
If not youa e obsessed with your house and the price you paid (you got screwed) You need to get help, this obsession wll destroy your life.
Condao Shacks in my opinion are just that, condo shacks poorly built glorified aparments. Nothing wrong with apartments, but no desire to buy one.
Surrounded by people on all sides, no privacy, you can hear every sound, and of course poorly built.
Some of them look like fancy housing projects,and I imagine many of them will look like crap in 5 to 10 years out.
CONDO SHACKS for everyone!!!!
“…god forbid the kid’s first words arent english and he learns another language while growing up.”
Well, I have a little story about that – a friend of mine hired a non-native English speaker to help with her childcare. While she, and I, thought it would be fantastic for the kid to learn another culture, the issue was that the nanny was not speaking her language to the kid and teaching her, but was speaking to the child in terrible English. The kid ended up speaking broken English. It took a bit to correct that.
I want my child to learn English first – I’m American, we live here, it’s useful. I would love for her to learn another language as well. But mostly I want her to learn the language CORRECTLY, be it English or any other language – not some semi-language mixed with incorrect language and different words. To me that’s the only issue with the language thing.
If that’s an issue for these “well to do” parents, they should suck it up and pay for an English speaking nanny. It’s funny what people will do to save money but where your kids are concerned, if you’re overspending in that arena, it’s the best kind of overspending.
Gary, 397 –
I had similar experiences in 1998 bidding on a house. The last minute competing offer and the request for final bids. We just decided that we had bid what we felt was fair for the house as well as what was our maximum anyway so we reiterated our original bid, told them we would not be going any higher and that if we lost the house, so be it. Good luck to the purchasers.
Surprise surprise, got a call next day saying we had “won”, which threw me for a loop as I had already let the house go in my head.
Anyway, turned out there were major problems which the seller had known about but not disclosed which ended with everything falling through.
I was sad at the time as I liked the house and loved the location, but in hindsight it was fine – the house opposite sold a year later and real junkers moved in, becoming the neighbours from hell by my understanding.
#397
My wife and I had a very similar experience. The only difference is the amount of overrage we paid. We looked at a property within hours of it being put on the market and put an offer in. Then our agent informed us that there was another offer and we should put in a higher offer…
NJGal, CF,
My son’s first words are not going to be in Spanish or with a lilting West Indian accent.”??
Young kids are more adaptable to learning multiple languages than the right wing english speaking crowd wants to believe. Trust me they wont be worse off if their first words are in Spanish or even if they are exposed to a mixture of languages as I was. I think as a child being exposed to multiple languages builds/improves your ability to learn different languages as you get older. I didnt speak a lick of english till I was 6. As a result unlike most Americans who only speak english, I am fluent in three.
3b Says:
June 9th, 2007 at 11:23 am
#355 ada You might feel differently if it was reversed.
if what was reversed?
Exposing kids to culture and language is great, I’m all for it (wish I was exposed to more languages when young). But having a foreign nanny is something else entirely.
Calling it “cultural exposure” is just a twisted justification.
jb
ADA Says:
June 9th, 2007 at 12:33 pm
NJGal, CF, Young kids are more adaptable to learning multiple languages than the right wing english speaking crowd wants to believe.
ADA: You have officially pushed from a position of possibly justifiable offense or irritation, and officially announced your agenda. I am more than willing to be conciliatory if I offended your sensibilities, but please do not start injecting this reasonable discussion with some other provocative finger-pointing.
Do you know where I grew up? Do you know who is my social and business circles? Do you know my family’s background? Your condescending comments ring hollow…..
Can someone shed a light on MLS # 2320994. Was on the GSMLS until a week or so ago. It’s a large ranch in Peapack Gladstone Boro. Thanks in advance
MLS # 2320994
OLP: $995,000
LP: $825,000
DOM: 262
Under Contract
Was purchased in 1988 (at the peak of the last bubble) for $625,000.
This listing is really surprising, after accounting for inflation, this property looks like it might be selling at a (real) loss.
Less than zero real appreciation in 19 years of ownership. This property would need to sell for a bit over $1m in order to break even after inflation.
jb
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/detroit-automakers-may-form-own/story.aspx?guid=%7B1507E7B1%2D389D%2D4779%2DA663%2D6313ECDB8D99%7D&dist=hplatest
General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and DaimlerChrysler AG’s Chrysler are considering setting up an independent health-insurance fund to help them cut down on future retiree health-care obligations, said a Bloomberg report Saturday.
>>
Nice move if it works.
Re post 361:
JB,
From the article
Housing inventories remain high, delinquencies and foreclosures are set to rise as homes purchased in the past few years by speculators and individuals with teaser-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages come back onto the market, affordability is low, and sentiment and risk appetite have shifted negatively. Most importantly, the availability of credit is set to take a turn for the worse as lenders tighten credit standards.
…Housing is illiquid and prices are sticky.
I know the conventional wisdom is that home prices are sticky, but I just don’t think this was a conventional bubble.
Because there were so many things out of line, I think prices will fall faster than most people anticipate.
They aren’t going to fall like stocks, but I have a feeling we are looking at record price declines by late 07, early 08.
My timing on the big drop may be a little off, but with so many factors contributing to the push up exiting the market at the same time, and pressure from so many factors pushing price down, I think a more rapid shift downward then has ever been seen before is coming.
My early call was for a 10% drop this year in both new and existing median prices and I’m sticking with it.
“It’s Not fair.” OH REALLY! http://bp0.blogger.com/_VMSUn2TMfXo/Rl2iwIhVIaI/AAAAAAAAAVQ/JBQ3V6Vr_J4/s1600-h/crybaby.jpg
http://www.winknews.com/news/local/7896352.html
You’re not going to believe what some brand new townhomes went for on the auction block Thursday night in Fort Myers, considering where prices have been. A three bedroom townhome previously priced at $310,000 sold for about $180,000! First time home buyer Brandon Quarterman, a student at Florida Gulf Coast University, was the lucky bidder. He said, ‘I’m feeling great. more money in my pocket!”
The two and three bedroom townhouses in the San Simeon development, which is off of Winkler Avenue, were selling for prices we haven’t seen in Southwest Florida in quite some time. And that was the whole point. Marketing reps with the developer, Levitt and Sons, say they’re trying to quickly unload the fifty homes. Most of them were left over after people and investors backed out of deals when the housing market changed. Levitt and Son’s Jama Shaw said, “This is our aggressive approach in moving onto our next phases and new floor plans.”
Greg Toher was outraged when he heard the prices some of the homes were going for. Walking out of the auction room, he told us, “$145,000! Unbelievable! We paid $300,000! They just got rid of at least four for $145,000!” He says he closed on his three bedroom San Simeon townhome in December, “You’ve got to be kidding me, that’s not fair.”
New buyers may be getting a steal, but current San Simeon homeowners, like Greg, tell WINK News they feel like they’ve been ripped off. Tara Gionpalo said, “I feel really mad, really sad, hurt.” Victoria Toher said the developer went back on their word, “They promised us they were not going to go below market value.” A Levitt and Sons representative told WINK News on Thursday night that the homes did go for fair market value…as determined by the hundreds of bidders at the auction. He went on to say they feel terrible for the homeowners, but the prices were reflective of a challenging real estate market and they’re confident it will once again shift in the homeowner’s favor.
Bruce Sexton, another San Simeon homeowner who closed on his house in October is not convinced, “I don’t think they have loyalty to the people who purchased early. They’re just trying to dump the houses and get what they can.”
re post 409:
(by me)
My 10% drop call is not from peak btw, it is from the end of 06.
Just wanted to be clear, because the decline had already started.
BLEED’EM DRY!
MARKETS WORK IN BOTH DIRECTIONS.
SORRY CHARLIE.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Also,
This thing is headed for 500 JB, maybe 600. (Although I’m not sure Donald’s post should count.)
You overpaid suckas. Accept it!
RE transactions do not carry price guarantees schleps.
bababababa
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
http://bp0.blogger.com/_VMSUn2TMfXo/Rl2iwIhVIaI/AAAAAAAAAVQ/JBQ3V6Vr_J4/s1600-h/crybaby.jpg
Sorry suckas.
This listing is really surprising, after accounting for inflation, this property looks like it might be selling at a (real) loss.
Out of curiosity, are you using an average percentage for inflation over this time period or are you using yearly increases?
I’ve been using 3% as a yearly average, but I think that might be too high.
Any thoughts?
NO HOPE NO REBOUND 2008 …..M-I-S-E-R-Y
GIVE UP YET?
HEHEHEHE
While I didn’t participate in the Irish thread yesterday, I need to brag a little. My daughter stomped the competition at the Murphy Feis in Brick today.
Two firsts and a fourth.
Shuttle engineers keep eye on tear in heat shield.
James Bednar Says:
June 9th, 2007 at 1:06 pm
MLS # 2320994
OLP: $995,000
LP: $825,000
DOM: 262
Under Contract
Was purchased in 1988 (at the peak of the last bubble) for $625,000.
This listing is really surprising, after accounting for inflation, this property looks like it might be selling at a (real) loss.
Less than zero real appreciation in 19 years of ownership. This property would need to sell for a bit over $1m in order to break even after inflation.
jb
the dangers of overpaying……..
houses are overbloated condoshacks even worse….hehehehehhe
WARNING WARNING WARNING WILL ROBINSON…..
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
CF, don’t sweat your wife’s decision. Don’t think that you had more to do with it than you did, either, and don’t justify it. Your wife can get a job, probably better than the one she had, whenever she decides that Hunter would be better off with some other combination of situations.
Everything changes.
I cried at work with the door closed for months when my husband was home taking care of our baby. He took off a few months of leave, which made things a bit more bearable. Eventually, we found a school teacher home raising her own two boys. She had some old-Italian ways…like Gracie always had to eat prunes on Thursdays to “clean her out over the weekend”… but they loved her like their own.
IT IS NOT A BUYERS MARKET……AT LEAST YET.
GOTTA BE ALOT OF SLEEPLESS NIGHTS ACROSS THE COUNTRY FOR MANY SEEING THEIR EQUITY GO NEGATIVE.
HEHEHEHHEHEHE
IT GOES UP AND IT GOES DOWN…WE ARE GOING DOWN FAST.
HEHEHEHEHHEE
When she was ready, we found a great farm-type care center.
Looking back, we made mistakes. Things could have been different. But she was so adaptable. Or maybe her life made her adaptable. I don’t know.
Did Greenspan fail to prevent subprime fallout?
Former Fed governor says Greenspan blocked proposal to crack down on subprime lending practices.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/09/news/economy/Greenspan_subprime/index.htm?postversion=2007060913
Former Federal Reserve Governor Edward Gramlich claims that former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan blocked a proposal to crack down on subprime lending practices back in 2000, according to The Wall Street Journal.
>>
finger pointing??
Lindsey, wow!, what excitement.
“You have officially pushed from a position of possibly justifiable offense or irritation, and officially announced your agenda. I am more than willing to be conciliatory if I offended your sensibilities, but please do not start injecting this reasonable discussion with some other provocative finger-pointing.”
Amen. I don’t know where that comment about the “right wing English speaking crowd” came from, but I consider it offensive in itself.
I’m not right wing, but I do speak English and sorry, I don’t really feel all that bad about it. Also, I know kids are adaptable, but I still say that whether they are learning English or Spanish or Chinese or African, they should be taught each language correctly. I would not trust an ‘off the books’ nanny to do that – learning from parents is a whole other story.
re post 382:
JB,
I don’t think it’s apples and oranges. I think it’s fresh crisp apples and crusty day old bread. They may serve the same function in terms of filling your belly, but one is a heck of a lot more enjoyable than the other.
Rich,
I use the CPI less Shelter for our MSA.
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/blscu/CUURA101SA0L2
jb
Do we really have that strong of an Irish contingent here?
jb
Pat,
Thanks. It’s been a lot of fun and I love watching her dance, though I am stuck at home today.
I don’t know how much you know about this stuff, but her firsts where in hornpipe and treble jig.
From MSNBC:
What Happens When the Boom Goes Bust?
Sal from New Jersey has another thing coming.
According to the National Association of Home Builders, the average price for a new home in 1980 was $76,400. By 2005, it had climbed to $295,100.
That’s incredible! $218,700 in caaash …
Before you get too excited thinking about investing in real estate and flipping houses, ponder this: Over a 25-year period, that $218,700 gain comes out to a 5.6% annualized return.
Think about that. If your stock investments had grown at just 5.6% annually over the past 25 years, you’d be kicking yourself. And with good reason — during that time, the S&P 500 earned 10.3% annually — almost double the average gains in housing. Ford (NYSE: F) (12.3%) would have more than doubled the average house’s return, while McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) (16.2%) would have nearly tripled it, and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) (27.3%) would have more than quadrupled it. Even AMR (NYSE: AMR), which operates in the cutthroat and sometimes struggling airline industry, churned out a 10.1% annualized gain from 1980 to 2005.
…
During the past eight years, home prices have grown at a much faster clip, so some of you are probably accusing us of cheating. We aren’t.
Instead, we’re taking a long-term view — because that’s the only view that can make you super rich.
…
Consider that cocktail party story about Sal from Asbury Park who made a million a few years ago flipping condos in Miami. It’s a great story, and we’ll go ahead and bet that bits and pieces of it are true. In fact, it might all be true.
But for every Sal from Asbury Park, there was a Jimmy from Hackensack who got in over his head and lost everything. Yeah, that happened, too. That’s why the collapse of the subprime lending market has been so tough for companies such as Novastar Financial (NYSE: NFI) and Accredited Home Lenders (Nasdaq: LEND).
And even if Sal did make a million in 2003, is he set for life? Certainly not. In order to make that nest egg last, Sal can only withdraw about $40,000 per year. Our guess is that Sal wants to live better than that. So he probably kept flipping houses. Flipping and flipping until the Miami condo market came down around him. Or, if he’s still holding properties, the real estate boom cycle has ended, and Sal will be lucky to eke out 5% returns over the next decade or more — all the while servicing the debt he needed to buy those condos in the first place.
Condos by me out here in the hinterlands are no longer toast. They are the cruddy crumbs under the toaster.
Investors have to be shaking. Honestly, I do feel bad for some of them.
This poor soul. OLP over a year ago was $159.9. Now, $119.5. http://tinyurl.com/2hvr32
InvestorDavid, if you’re out there, you might check it out…10 miles from Lawrenceville School. It’s in a flood area, but for a few years at that price, who cares?
Lindsey, I’m of Italian and German background but my husband is Irish.
We enjoy going to the local festivals in the Philly area. We get quite a variety.
Last year our favorite was the Polish and Eastern European extravaganza. Those kids are truly hungry and competitive. They have this influx of new natives lately that so the heat is up. We go stomp in barrels of kraut and watch the dancing all day.
Since I’ve “officially announced” it, what possible agenda could I be looking to further on an anonymous RE blog with a comment on young kids learning multiple languages? I think english speaking kids is a straining hollow justification for renting.
and I never claimed anyone here was right wing only what position they espouse.
ADA –
so njgal has a concern about her child learning broken english from a non-native speaker, therefore she is right wing….
i think you need to get the chip off your shoulder
and I never claimed anyone here was right wing only what position they espouse.
i think disparaging her concerns by labeling them a right wing “position” is silly.
but at this point, why don’t we just agree to disagree on this one.
I am half Irish. Irish is the #2 ethnicity in the US behind German as I understand it.
So I finally got around to following the link HEHEHE posted at 322.
A couple of things. As someone noted, it is an advertisement. Actually, that’s pretty clear as it is plainly displayed that the piece is from Realty Times.
In case anyone is unaware, Realty Times is run by the same people who run realtor.com, the NAR’s partner for MLS websites.
I decided to read the piece anyway because it never hurts to know the line the Realtor’s are pushing, and wouldn’t you know it, they resorted to one of my favorite rhetorical tricks right off the bat.
In the first paragraph they have:
…the building industry, and the resale real estate industry have all been quoted as saying that the sky is falling.
Now some people in the building industry and even some in the “resale real estate industry” may have disclosed that they are facing declining sales and have provided a dim outlook about short term prospects in the future, but not one of them has said “the sky is falling.”
The reason for that is because no one ever says the sky is falling people only say that someone else said “the sky is falling,” as a way to set the bar at an impossible level so they can then argue that things aren’t as bad as “people” or “experts” or whomever is saying.
I like to keep my posts as short as possible, so I’m going to end this here, but I’ll be back with more.
metro: is southern-fried a-hole an ethnicity? [sorry clot!]
jb,
re: #370
Thanks for the info. That was the home of my childhood best friend, so I’m very familiar with the place. The second floor bumpout was done in the 80’s, as was an enclosed porch on the back of the house.
The house has about 50% more square footage than the typical house in the neighborhood.
If they’re having trouble selling at $439K, the folks in mls 2386035 (about 100 yards away) must be sweating bullets trying to sell for $435K. They also bought in 2004 for $370K.
Thanks again.
jw
From the Star Ledger
Newark will offer employees buyouts to close budget gap
The City of Newark will offer voluntary buyouts to a majority of its 5,000 employees to help eliminate a potential $180 million budget gap, city officials said.
Uniformed police and firefighters will be exempted from the offer along with certain other categories of employees such as lawyers, Business Administrator Bo Kemp said.
Mayor Cory Booker has said that everything, including layoffs, is on the table to solve Newark’s financial crisis except a reduction in police and fire personnel.
…
City Council President Mildred Crump said she doesn’t have a figure for the potential number of layoffs, but last year Booker said up to 20 percent of the city’s workforce might have to be reduced because of the budget deficit.
ChiFi,
Actually if you go to the south (I lived there for 3 years) they look at themselves as an ethnicity. So yes, and I met a bunch of them. Just go to Talladega some time.
More on the link in post 322
This is priceless:
There is no bubble.
The value of real estate isn’t driven by speculation; it’s driven by its utility. If the economy moves away, such as in the rust-belt, that utility may decline. If high paying jobs are headed into a region, the value of the scarcest of all commodities, real estate will rise.
The value of real estate, and anything else, isn’t driven at all, it is set. And in this country, at least for the moment, the value of real estate is set by the market. When there are more buyers then sellers, for whatever reason, prices are likely to rise; when there are more sellers then buyers, prices are likely to fall.
For a few years, there were more buyers (some of whom were speculators), not anymore.
Increasing development costs absolutely guarantee that new construction will cost more than existing properties are selling for.
As noted elsewhere in this thread, the price of lumber has dropped already and I would imagine the same can be said for quite a few other building materials as well.
This factor alone has caused many developers to mothball projects in the pipeline until shortages again push prices up.
I think developers have plainly stated other reasons for mothballing projects, i.e. massive cancellations and declining sales.
to be continued…
For the record…5 year old daughter speaks perfect English with advanced vocabulary (and smatterings of many other languages from French, Spanish, Chinese, Hindi and British Creaole, Arabic, Italian)…despite hubby being a native Spanish speaker and also a Hindu (yep a foreigner raising an American child, accent and all.. who speaks 3 languages) and… a Caribbean nanny (yea another foreigner raising an American child, who speaks 2 languages)… Both are loving and caring and educated, and have excellent child-rearing skills.
Children’s brains are pre-wired to learn many languages, yes even cultures. Studies show, the more languages a child speaks the higher the IQ and interestingly enough…the greater the capacity for math and music! The brain’s processing center for languages, music and math and higher reasoning are tightly interwoven. The more input you expose a child’s brains to, the fuzzier those little neurons grow.
The reason I love living in NYC is the world comes to you! Just one example…My kid loves asking cab drivers about what country they’re from, what languages they speak, what foods they eat, and who their favorite soccer team is, lol (shhh, hers is Manchester United)! After this interogation we go home and pull out the globe, and hit the internet to learn a little bit about the world. Sometimes we even go to a restaurant corresponding with the country, and learn a little more.
Where else in the world can you do this? Whether we admit it or not, our country truly is amazing because of the influx of ideas, and adaptability of the people who live here. I know that’s why my grandparents came here, and it’s what keeps me here.
Some data on South Jersey and PA:
April Pending Home Sales Index Reports Mixed News in the Region’s Real Estate Market Activity
Southeastern PA and Southern NJ real estate activity in lockstep with national trends reported by the National Association of Realtors® Index; meanwhile Center City shows sluggish activity for the first time this year
DEVON, PA – June 7, 2007 – The Prudential Fox & Roach, REALTORS® HomExpert Pending Home Sales Index© showed local real estate activity still slow but following the national and regional numbers reported by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index. The combined 10-county Southeastern Pennsylvania and Southern New Jersey* index dropped 4.5 percent from March’s 99.5 index to April’s 95.1, according to the HomExpert Pending Home Sales Index.
For the first time this year, the Southeastern Pennsylvania market started to level off and rebound from first quarter indices that showed double-digit percentage drops in activity. Similar to NAR’s national index results showing a 3.2 percent decline, pending home sales showed signs of leveling in April throughout the five-county Philadelphia region dropping 2.5 percent from 133.2 in March to 127.5 in April, according to the HomExpert Pending Home Sales Index.
Center City, however, reported the first drop of the year falling 20.1 percent in April. In the January/February index, Center City increased 5.8 percent and 22.5 percent in the February/March data. After an early fast start, the Main Line continues to fall, dropping 2.4 percent in April. January/February showed a 22.5 percent jump followed by a 10.1 percent drop in February/March.
The five-county New Jersey market continues the sluggish pace reported in the first quarter HomExpert Pending Home Sales Index. Keeping pace with NAR’s Northeast index data showing a 10.4 percent drop, New Jersey dropped 9.2 percent from 86.0 in March to 78.1 in April, according to the HomExpert Pending Home Sales Index. The March/April index shows some improvement over the January/February 13.1 percent drop and the February/March 13.2 percent drop.
The index monitors real estate market activity by tracking pending sales of homes reported to the TREND® Multiple Listing Service, the region’s primary real estate reporting tool for 32,000 real estate professionals. A sale is listed as ‘pending’ when a contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed. Sales are typically finalized within one or two months of signing. An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2002. The HomExpert Pending Home Sales Index is modeled after a national index created by the National Association of Realtors® and is available at http://www.realtor.org.
County
March
Index
April
Index
Percent Change
Philadelphia
133.2
127.5
-4.3%
Bucks
94.1
89.8
-4.5%
Delaware
108.6
108.9
0.3%
Chester
85.3
81.3
-4.7%
Montgomery
92.8
94.1
1.3%
PENNSYLVANIA
133.2
127.5
-2.5%
Burlington
81.0
71.7
-11.5%
Camden
85.0
77.5
-8.8%
Gloucester
84.2
79.0
-6.2%
Mercer
94.7
85.2
-10.3%
Salem
95.7
96.1
0.4%
NEW JERSEY
86.0
78.1
-9.2%
10-COUNTY REGION
99.5
95.1
-4.5%
The Real Cost Of Offshoring
U.S. data show that moving jobs overseas hasn’t hurt the economy. Here’s why those stats are wrong
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_25/b4039001.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_businessweek+exclusives
– growth of domestic manufacturing has been substantially overstated in recent years
– “phantom GDP”–reported gains in GDP that don’t correspond to any actual domestic production
– productivity – most companies don’t look at how much of their productivity growth is onshore and how much is offshore
– growth in Europe and Japan might be overstated, too
– less productivty implies, the Fed may have less leeway to cut rates
– methods for measuring the economy need to change.
Sassy,
I agree with you completely, well put.
Hey BC Bob! Clemens fans 7 in Yanks’ 9-3 win over the Pirates!
Inventory is slowly rising in the town I’m looking at. I’m coming across quite a few relistings and sellers using different agents. There’s one house in particular – a ranch, decent looking but on a main road with no street parking – it was on sale last year for around $669K. It’s now listed at $559K, even though similar houses in town are listed for almost $100K less than that.
More on the link in post 322
4. Value is a complicated cocktail.
Assessed value, appraised value, market value, replacement value, and selling price all mean something different. When the media says that real estate values are falling, they really mean that the prices people paid for a small number of homes, last month, was less than what a different group of people paid for a different assortment the month before.
I’ll just note that what is bought and sold in any time period is what we call a “market.” As any student who has take econ 101 should be able to tell you, the prices paid in the “market” define the monetary value of a good. Right now the market is saying residential real estate isn’t worth as much as a lot of people thought it was.
But wait, there’s more…
still more on the link from Post 322:
5. There is always a baseline of demand.
An increasing population must be housed. There is a natural ebb and flow, not a boom bust. At various times, demand outstrips supply; supply is increased until the surge recedes to baseline or below.
6. There is always a baseline of mortgage defaults.
There will always be unforeseen circumstances that will bring some homeowners into default. Even in good economic times. And even with good mortgage loans. In an appreciating market, they are able to sell in a short period of time. So, in most markets, foreclosure activity has been below the historic baseline.
Now, it could increase, spiking a little to reflect those who can no longer survive on increasing equity and then may level out at baseline again. When the next rapid appreciation cycle begins, and it almost assuredly will, rates may fall back below the newly adjusted baseline.
Hey! the sentences following both No.’s 5 and 6 are absolutely true statements!
Sadly the sentences that follow each of the numbered sentence are nonsensical, somewhat incoherent, and unquestionably designed to mislead.
First, 5. While acknowledging that demand can outstrip supply, the writer doesn’t seem to believe that supply can ever outstrip demand. As long as that’s the case, of course, flow will always be larger then ebb, and therefore no bust following a boom. History, of course, tells a different story.
What follows sentence 6 may be the most significant non sequitur. There seems to be a reasonable description about the factors that let people avoid foreclosure but, of course, none of those factors are currently in place in the market.
Now this: “spiking a little to reflect those who can no longer survive on increasing equity, of course, doesn’t take into account such a thing as declining equity, or worse negative equity, which many people already face. I have to give credit, at least there’s an acknowledgment that foreclosures will rise.
Donald,
So you’re selling a house for about $900k and you have three people interested but for the fact that …. ummmm …. let’s think about this …. ahhhh …. they don’t actually have the money.
Consequently, you need not lower your asking price.
I have great news for you. You are asking too little.
Raise your ask to $1.5m and I would be interested …. except that …. ummmm …. I don’t have the money.
Oh well, at least you made $600k this weekend.
The final part of the story, from link 322:
7. There is no risk.
Save the term risk for high stakes poker in Vegas.
Buying real estate isn’t inherently risky. But it isn’t a get-rich-quick scheme, either. It’s a formula for building long term wealth.
Wow. OK, if I was a Realtor I sure hope someone who is upside down on their mortgage never sees this. I doubt you could win a court case based on this, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone bring one. At the very least, to the extent that “real estate” is considered an investment, it needs to be talked about in terms of risk and a promise of no risk is something the industry’s largest trade association can’t possibly be in a position of saying.
8. Real estate is a great way to build wealth.
You have to live somewhere. If you rent, you are making some or all of someone else’s mortgage payment. But even if you have to work two jobs and barely scrape by to make your own mortgage payment, you are building equity that over time will be quite substantial.
So, perhaps, don’t believe every “the sky is* falling” report or article. Educate yourself on the market and happy wealth homeowning!
I don’t feel the need to explain what’s wrong with this point to the people on this site. I just have a hard time believing that someone actually wrote it.
I will say that I agree with the sentiment expressed in the last graph, but I’m not sure I think of it the same way the writer does.
At the end of the day, I don’t really blame Realty Times for publishing this piece. They’re doing the best they can, but in words in words that I wish I could say I came up with but must acknowledge that I didn’t, “there’s really no way to polish a turd.”
“Sans view and location, is there really any reason to live in Cliffside Park?”
I don’t know. Why don’t you ask the people that bought houses in Cliffside Park for $1.1 million and $1.8 million earlier this year? Perhaps you should ask Dr. OZ and Senator Lautenberg.
JB,
You are right about the desireable vs. undesireable parts of the town. There is a middle income section west of Palisade Avenue and a high income section east of Palisade. BIG DIFFERENCE in home values and incomes. The middle is very samll.
I rented in Edgewater and it was the same way. You had all the rich people on River Road with their fancy views and their 24 hour security, but Undercliff Avenue was a different story. Unmaintained property, drug dealing, loud music, etc. Englewood is also another example. You have the 7 digit mansions in the east hill section, but travel a few blocks and you will see low income housing and housing projects.
Re: Home statistcis posted by Rich for homes in Cliffside Park
The figures posted by Rich only help to prove my point. Of the 2 homes that were recently for sale (and right next door to each other), neither of the sellers ever dropped their asking prices by a single penny. One price was $2,225,000 and the other was $1,999,000. Rather than lower the price or take a pathetic lowball, the sellers made the smart decision of pulling the houses off the market. I am sure they can rent them out for big money. I saw the home for $2.25 million at an open house and right before it was put on the market, a professional baseball player was renting it for $6,500 a month. He moved since he was transferred to an out of state team.
Duck,
“I saw the home for $2.25 million at an open house and right before it was put on the market, a professional baseball player was renting it for $6,500 a month. He moved since he was transferred to an out of state team.”
No one to rent and no MEW? Are they using credit cards to pay mortgage? Why don’t you invite that sucker here. He will give you good company.
#456
I do not think that people living in the $2 million + home are having troube paying the mortgagae, and that is assuming they even have a mortgage.
Duck,
keep dreaming. With interest rates going up and housing bottom no where close, these suckers will be picked up like sitting ducks … or more like bugs … squash, squash.
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2007/03/29/mortgage_crisis_hits_million_dollar_homes/
Sorry, but you are wrong. If they were desperate, don’t you think they would have lowered the price? Ask yourself that question. If they took a 30 year fixed, they are immune to the mortgage crisis, just as I am. People with houses in that price range are not taking sub prime loans.
Yeap. Every seller has a fixed 30 year mortgage. LOL.
These are foreclosures from just one lender. Don’t you think they were “deperate” before they foreclosed? Did it help?
http://bp1.blogger.com/_A2btxwmKXXg/RmXQJhfgLZI/AAAAAAAAAaU/qU_ya6Y9Tyg/s1600-h/chart_all.jpg
I’m not talking alt-A not subprime.
Why wouldn’t the sellers of the two $2 million homes have 30 or 15 year fixed loans? They definitely have the income to qualify for one. Seriosly, if I qualified for a 30 year fixed loan, I can guarantee that they did too.
BTW: What is the best website to use to locate sales records? I think there is a site that is operated by Mommouth County that covers the entire state. Can someone please post the link? Thank you!
“Why wouldn’t the sellers of the two $2 million homes have 30 or 15 year fixed loans?”
A $2 mil house with a 20% down payment costs 200k/year in just mortgage and property taxes. You should be targeting dudes making over 600K/year to buy this place. Do you make 600K/year?
I have another quesion for you:
Who said they ony put down 20%? What if they put down 40%?
Donald, ( from yesterday )
Where in fort lee is someone paying 90K a year in property taxes? The only place I can think of is that area next to the bridge hanging off the cliff you can see from the span.
Why put down 40%?? They can even put 99.99% down but for some reason they don’t. Affordability??
0-5% is the average down payment nowadays. I stretched the percentage to 20%.
From your response you don’t look like someone who makes the big bucks. Can you buy your house at list price? LOL
Patrick,
I was not able to locate the home with the $96,000 taxes on zilow. It had to be a mistake by zillow since nobody in Fort lee is paying that much. However, 75 Bluff Road pays $62,250 in property taxes.
I have a question. Why was this home purchased under “Apen Realty”? Is this a shell company for a celebrity?
http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4sr.cgi?&srch_type=1&ms_user=monm&district=02061239
zillow has the home I put the link above for assessed at $1,188,000. It is a small ’50s rambler with a view. Property taxes are $23,536. Just curious about why the home was purchased under the name of a company.
Ad (387)-
Good. Walk away. You’re being led into an illegal (because interests have not been disclosed properly) agency relationship.
Wanna have some fun? Tell that agent you’re gonna report him for an undisclosed dual agency to the REC.
BTW, next time out, learn the game before you play. At the end of the game, it’s caveat emptor…and you really have no excuse for knowing the rules of the road before diving in.
Would you open a margin account, not learn the rules and go all the way to your limit?
Then don’t do it with RE. Most of us, unfortunately, aren’t here to help you.
Pat (432)-
“We go stomp in barrels of kraut and watch the dancing all day.”
Not to go nuts over my own ethnicity (mostly French), but that’s just flat-out nasty. A proper choucroute (not to be confused with “kraut”) should be placed in a proper vessel, turned and nursed with sterile implements over a period of days in a nice, cool cellar and served with only the finest of charcuterie…plus a hot, glazed chop or two. Best to wash it down with some Grand Cru Riesling, Pinot Gris or Gewurz, preferably Schleret, Weinbach or Zind-Humbrecht…NOT beer.
Thus ends my racist rant for today.
Sassy (444)-
Man U sucks.
Go Chelsea!
We’re currently renting a fully furnished house, but the lease is up June 30th, and have signed a new lease in a unfurnished single family. Anyone have any advice as to where to get the best deals for furniture in the northern NJ area? My mom suggested taking a trip down to North Carolina and ordering there, but I wonder if the expense of the trip would offset any savings I may incur.
There are plenty of places in NJ. Go to different stores and find stuff on clearance. There really is no “one” store for cheap furniture, unless you want to spend an entire week assembling furniture from IKEA. Drive down Routes 4 and 17 and see what the furniture stores have on sale, clearance, or if they are selling any floor models for well below MSRP.
OK, I’ve actually found someone who said “the sky is falling” rather than someone who said someone else says “the sky is falling.”
Fortunately for me, he appears to be an incoherent idiot (Careful Donald, I think he’s trying to horn in on your turf).
this is from the OCregister’s mortgage insider blog:
http://tinyurl.com/26dahk
This morning I received an email from Jeff Lazerson, president of loan brokerage Mortgage Grader in Laguna Niguel, with the subject, ‘The sky is falling.’
Unfortunately I don’t think he presented the entire email on the blog. At least what he did provide didn’t seem to offer anything that might make a person believe “the sky is falling.”
The only thing I could see that might count as a reason was this:
All of that outsourced cheap labor over the past 15 years is coming full circle in the form of inflationary pressures.
I really have no idea what that means, and if someone can explain it to me, I’d be happy to admit my own mental deficiency and act accordingly.
Also, while I’m going to accept this as an actual usage, I think its worth noting that he never actually appears to have said “the sky is falling,” in the body of his email, he just used it as the title. It still doesn’t make his thought processes anymore clear to me.
In the future I will amend my statements to reflect what I’ve learned, i.e. “The only people I’ve ever seen use the phrase “the sky is falling” are people saying someone else said it and idiots.”
#471 Clot
Be kind, she’s only 5, lol! Plenty of time for change…Brazil is up there too!
Also, I was a nanny in France for a year. Yep, I can only hope I didn’t taint the children’s pronunciation of their native tongue, lol! Somehow I’m sure they survived. Yep, bonafide off the books nanny…acutally an au pair. I did walk away fluent in written and spoken French, but then again, I was a language and lit major in college, and had plenty of practice during my summers in Quebec. But again, that would be a French Canadian accent, and not Parisian.
And yes, sorry JB, I lived in France for a year for the cultural exchange.
Clot,
I’ve never met or spoken to someone as well informed about RE as you. I very much appreciate how generous you are about providing that information on this site, but when it comes to using metaphors, you might want to pull back on the reins a little:
… and you really have no excuse for [not] knowing the rules of the road before diving in.
Anyway, even if your metaphors don’t always work, what you have to say about RE is always worth reading.
Thus ends today’s English lesson.
Lindsey (476)-
Coupla drinks on a Saturday night…going too fast…thanks for catching that. You got the drift.
Caveat emptor is always the order of the day.
Before you buy…check craigslist for stuff to get you through until you decide what you really need and want. For example, the set below will you through a lot and can later be your fallback for the den.
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/fur/348613149.html
Offer 1000 cash. Tell them your story. Tell them about your Mom.
That was for Dink.
Why the interest in “ESPLANADE PLACE ” and mayor Gerald Calabrese?
http://www.cliffsideparkonline.com/forum/index.pl/noframes/read/7050
Thanks Pat….I’ve actually been checking craigslist for the past couple of days, but didn’t catch that one. Its right up our alley. Our intention is to furnish for the bedroom and living room, and be able to buy stuff could be utilized elswhere (finished basement, office, etc.) once we upgrade. We actually hit up about 5 moving/yard sales today in the Montclair area, but apparently if you are not there within 5 minutes of opening time, you miss out on anything of decent value.
Hey Dink, try North Caroline furniture showrooms here in NYC or Foremost Furniture. I think they both have websites.
Also, check out Freecycle. Sometimes there’s some great stuff on there. Check out the NYC area too. There are lots of apartment dwellers who let go of their furniture when they change their situations. GL!
Just because I’ve had too much caffeine, and can’t sleep!
http://www.foremostfurniture.com/
http://www.ncarolinafurniture.com/
Also Jensen-Lewis has great closeouts, and wonderful customer service.
http://www.jensen-lewis.com/
And also, don’t forget to go to your favorite furniture stores and ask about floor samples (as long as there are not too many dings).
Caveat emptor as our dear friend likes to remind us!
hmm post just disappeared.. I’m trying again..
http://www.foremostfurniture.com/
http://www.ncarolinafurniture.com/
And jensen-lewis has great customer service, check out their closeouts, sometimes there are some good deals.
http://www.jensen-lewis.com/
Also, go to your favorite furniture store and see check out floor samples (as long as there are not too many dings).
Caveat Emport, as our dear friend likes to remind us.
Clot,
You are confusing me this evening, and I only had 2 glasses of wine with dinner! I think they said they were told it was dual agency but it was not their agent’s listing it was another agent’t in the office’s listing, so yes the agent was dual agency but not listing agent. I am not sure what could be said their agent did wrong, it is just a s@cky situation, that happened often in the height of the seller’s market. Oh how I hate saying another offer was recieved and no, I can’t tell you what it is, 1) I have’nt been told, and 2( how would that be fair to the higher bidder. Yes most people think it is bullsh@t but since I have been there and done that I know it is not. The answer is, offer the what the house is worth to you not a penny more, and in that situation not a penny less.
KL
I have a strong feeling that Duck is a property appraiser/ investor.
Inventories up to another all time high this week in NJ. It’s ugly out there for the sellers. Anybody want to buy a house?
MH took me for a tour around Union County yesterday. He works up there so I wanted to look around. Of course I loved Summit. But there are some very over-priced houses there. Some of them were beautiful, some scary, some so enormous I thought they were some kind of hotel or B & B. I can see why property taxes are so high. We drove through what we thought might have been Roselle Park. Nice area but the road we drove down (main road, can’t remember which one) had so many for sale signs I was surprised. And I have to be honest. As a potential buyer, when I see so many houses for sale in the same area, I wonder what’s happening that’s making everyone want to move. Is it a property tax increase in the near future, some kind of development/big stores no one wants, the area getting worse in crime? So many variables.
Which leads me to my question. We didn’t see it in person but we did online. Does anyone know if The Pointe development (condos/townhouses) still are not allowing cats and dogs?
Thanks all.
Hey Houseflippers:
Just leave the kitchen & bathroom alone! (I’ll do my own fixen..the right way) Not the half xssed way you saw on TV. Forget about your painting parties with uncle Bob and his beer buddy.
Oh an BTW, I’ll find the price YOU paid and subtract 30K for being a wisexss.
Though folks would find this intersting. Went over to KHov’s Hunters Brook in Hackettstown about 2 months ago to peek – Out of my price range. They collected a bunch of info and I gave them my junkmail email account. Got this email sent yesterday DURING their Sneak Peek Event. I’m actually a little disgusted at the “pressure tactic” (Now is the time to buy / Prices will go up??) – Could this be more impersonal and rude?:
Dear Mr. Anth
NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY! Due to the great success of our Sneak Peak
Event, Prices will be going up on the new homes available at Hunter’s
Brook in picturesque Hackettstown effective Monday, June 11th!
Find the home of your dreams in this beautiful location. Customize the
home to fit your lifestyle and tastes.
Contact me right away to make an appointment to see all the Hunter’s
Brook has to offer!
Hunter’s Brook,
K. Hovnanian’s Hunter’s Brook
Interesting piece in the Herald/Record. Reminds me of something we would see posted here…
New agent brings change in price
The listing: Four-bedroom Victorian
Location: Englewood
Listed by: ********* of ****** Real Estate, Englewood
On the market: About one year
Asking price: Originally $699,000; reduced to $629,000
The game plan: The house was listed with another agent for almost a year. When Aaron got the listing, she suggested lowering the asking price to $629,000. “The market has come down, so sellers have to be realistic if they’re motivated to sell,” said Aaron. “Pricing it right is what is selling properties.” She listed the house on the multiple listing service and held open houses for real estate agents and the public.
The result: The house sold for $585,000.
KL (483)-
Yes, this lady was told that it was a dual agency situation and that it was the listing of another agent in the office.
What also seemed apparent to me was that the buyer believed the agent who was working with her had the ability to do things on her behalf, per her quote in (387):
“I thought that the realtor that showed me the property and had me do the paperwork for the offer was my representative.”
Of course, no agent in a properly disclosed dual agency situation can negotiate…or favor one party over the other.
I’ve encountered many situations in which agents in an office want to keep the deal “in house”. When listing agents within that office encounter a buyer who’s not comfortable tabling an offer thru the listing agent, that buyer is “handed off” to another agent in the office and assured that this other agent will “take care of you”. As our friend, AdAgency, found out, you get “taken care of” all right…and step #1 involves grabbing your ankles.
My whole point is, a dual agency that is improperly disclosed- or improperly practiced by agents- is illegal. A proper disclosure in advance of a written offer would’ve informed our friend that no fiduciary care was coming her way.
Oops…(495) was to (488).
Is it just better to deal with a non-listing agent? Do you get better representation that way?
I have now been tracking the GSMLS inventory ( first page number only) for a year. Jim also does this to a more detailed extent. Below are the monthly averages for May 2006 to May 2007
( I don’t have July)
5/2006 27909
6/2006 28471
8/2006 31892
9/2006 32601
10/2006 32749
11/2006 32088
12/2006 30040
1/2007 28877
2/2007 28925
3/2007 30737
4/2007 32861
5/2007 33493
This morning we are at 35,002
KL
Since we’re talking numbers this morning, the Monmouth County public MLS’s total 8,376 listings. I’ve been tracking the listings since Sept. 2005.
The county is 270 listings under last year’s peak which occurred on Sept. 29.
Here’s the breakdown:
E. Mon 4552
W. Mon 2741
S. Mon 1083
Western Monmouth is 30 listings away from it’s 2006 high.
Ad (497)-
Yes. And don’t use just anyone…interview around until you find an agent who really understands buyer agency. You want an advocate, not a tour guide. Many buyers’ agents out there are just failed listing agents.
This is a comment from way earlier in the thread:
You can’t judge the quality of parenting by whether or not the mom (dad) works or stays at home.
I’ve found that it’s those who put a great deal of effort into their parenting that a) are great parents and b) most defensive of their positions (work or sah). The parents who are laissez faire (sp?) about the responsibilities and effort involved in raising children are where the problems lie not whether they work or stay at home. You can’t stereotype it. Ineffective parenting is not directly related to whether mom works out of the home.
Dink, you said:
My mom suggested taking a trip down to North Carolina and ordering there, but I wonder if the expense of the trip would offset any savings I may incur.
I’ve purchased several major items of furniture from NC. The issue is more that it takes serious time to arrive – in one case, more than 6 months.
I ordered online, and the stores put in the orders to the factory. So I don’t know whether, if you go down there, you can buy ready-made pieces out of warehouses.
Comment #501 Agreed. My SIL is a stay at home mom, parks her 3 yo in front of the television. Kid doesn’t talk as much as she needs to by now and not even potty trained. Kid would have been better off in day care with other tots her age. Ugh!
#357 ADA Says:
“Bottom line is that owning is always more expensive than you think”
ADA. I would say this from my experience too. Many renters especially those renting apt underestimate the cost and time commitment required to own a home.
#500, thank you again Clot. Will keep that in mind.
For a really bad job of marketing, this ad from Weichert popped up last week:
http://homes.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?ctid=27103&ml=3&typ=1&sid=fae916c103a64af08368039676bc2ef9&=0&sby=2&lid=1082sdir725403&lsn=8&srcnt=146#Detail
The brown house in the ad was sold in January 2006 for about $464,000 as a tear-down – the intention is to subdivide the lot for a “two-fer.”
Not long after, in spring ’06, Weichert started running ads …”two new houses to be built, pending Township approval.”
The ads ran throughout 2006, while the house was apparently being rented – lights on, cars in the driveway.
Since the original house was still there, someone from Weichert decided to wander over to Kennedy Park and take pictures of grass and trees – as if the site were a vacant lot. But if you know the area, you can make it as Kennedy Park – you can see the Kennedy Park school in the far background.
No doubt alarmed citizens were calling, so at one point, they clarified the location by adding the street address.
Then the ads came back this spring, announcing that all Township approvals had been received and promising delivery by early summer.
Meanwhile, every time we drive by, the original brown house is still there – as recently as last week.
Why doesn’t Weichert just include a drawing of the prospective houses?
My link didn’t work.
MLS ID# 721242
Notice the 1 Million + homes picking up in foreclosures.
HEHEHEHEHEHE
CASH IS KING ….
HEHEHHEHEHEHE
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
NO HOPE NO REBOUND 2008…..
M-I-S-E-R-Y 2008
tHIS HOUSING MARKET IS GETTING MUCH WORSE THAN EARLY 1990’S HOUSING BUBBLE BUST
HOUSE PRICES/CONDOSHACKS STILL WAY OVERPRICED VS ALL METRICS.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
2-0-0-2 here we come or is that 2001 or 2000?
LOTS AND LOTS AND LOTS OF BAGHOLDERS IN TROUBLE.
JUST CHECK OUT THE COUNTY RECORDS.
HUGE LOANS AND HELOCS AND ALL THE DIRT IS THERE. YOU CAN SEE WHO IS REALLY SWEATING JUST LOOK AT THE MTGS.
IT’S ALL THERE ON THE INTERNET
HEHEHEHEHHE
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
The True “Show & Tellers” are revealed.
hehehehehehehehehe
“Slash & Burn Asking Prices”
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
SLASH & BURN ASKING PRICES!
Story in today’s New York Times – Sunday Business front page:
Beware of Exploding Mortgages
By GRETCHEN MORGENSON
Published: June 10, 2007
ANYONE who believes that the worst is over in the subprime mortgage fiasco need merely wait awhile. A tsunami of interest rate increases on these loans is headed your way.
Adjustable-rate mortgages, with interest rates that recalibrate according to market fluctuations, have been among the more questionable “innovations” sweeping through the staid world of home lending in recent years. Especially ingenious — for lenders, at least — were so-called exploding A.R.M.’s that lured borrowers with unusually low teaser rates that then reset skyward two or three years later (typically pegged to the London Interbank Offered Rate, plus six percentage points).
During the next five years, some $1 trillion in adjustable-rate mortgages will reset. But in the here and now — from just June to October this year — more than $100 billion of that amount is scheduled to reset, and all of it is in loans that are in the riskier subprime category. Given the recent interest rate spike, many of those loans that once carried low teaser rates are on track to reset to at least 11 percent — or more than four percentage points higher than the current rate on a conventional, 30-year home loan.
Chances are slim that even the most creditworthy borrowers can survive payment shocks like these. And so, as the reset storm hits, delinquencies will rise and foreclosures will follow. It is too early to estimate how many foreclosures will take place as a result, but last year there were 1.2 million, according to RealtyTrac, an online real estate database.
In one index of mortgages that tracks 20 loan pools issued in the second half of 2005 — a subset of an index called the ABX — some 42 percent of those loans are about to hit the reset button on their interest rates. But we don’t have to wait for that to happen to know there’s trouble brewing: delinquencies in the ABX loan pools have already started ballooning. A Morgan Stanley analysis shows that 8 percent of mortgage loans in pools put together in the latter part of 2005 were more than 60 days delinquent in May. Even more worrisome, almost 4 percent of the loans made in the second half of 2006 were more than two months delinquent. That’s almost double the delinquency rate for loans made one year earlier and at the same point in their terms.
What’s more, fully 35 percent of the most recently issued loan pools in the index have delinquency rates that exceed the target levels specified when they were sold to investors. And for loans made in the first half of 2006, three-quarters are exceeding their delinquency targets.
ADD to this grim picture the fact that many of the loans taken out most recently are held by people who probably have little or no equity in their homes. As prices soften further, these borrowers will find themselves “upside down” — owing more on their mortgage than their houses are worth.
None of this bodes well for home prices, which are already flat or falling. Then again, this is what a mania always looks like when it unravels.
Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard Law School professor and bankruptcy expert, said that this ugly scenario is proof that consumers need protection from financial products that can wipe them out. She is calling for the creation of a Financial Product Safety Commission to oversee the increasingly complex market for loans and other financial goods. (For a more elaborate explanation, you can read her article in “Democracy: A Journal of Ideas” online at democracyjournal.org/article.php?ID=6544.)
“We have basic safety regulations for nearly every product a consumer can buy, except the ones that ruin them financially,” Ms. Warren said in an interview. “We would not be where we are today with home mortgage foreclosures and millions of families in bankruptcy or on the brink of economic collapse if we had had better regulation of financial products.”
A data point in support of her thesis: five years ago, Fannie Mae estimated that 50 percent of the borrowers who took out subprime mortgages had credit profiles that could have qualified them for prime rates. While that may not have been the case in the late stages of the mania, it suggests that some of the people who are facing enormous resets may be doing so unnecessarily.
Many in the industry argue, of course, that borrowers, not lenders, are responsible for any problems they experience with their loans. If they didn’t want a loan that would reset to a sky-high level, why did they sign the documents?
“If we had 1.2 million people whose toasters had exploded this year, we would not be saying they should have checked the wiring more closely before they bought those things,” Ms. Warren said. “We would say those are products that should not have been put on the market. I completely understand it makes no sense to try to insure that every product will be 100 percent safe. But consumers should not be faced with products that are so unsafe that they will cost them their homes.”
Ms. Warren’s idea for a financial product consumer safety unit will probably be laughed off the stage by the anti-regulation crowd. Get ready for gripes and groans from the usual suspects saying that increased regulation would poison the American economy and cripple our competitiveness.
“The anti-regulation folks say all regulation is bad, and yet we live in a world where regulation works most of the time,” she said. “We don’t eat tainted meat and we don’t drink adulterated milk because we have fairly good regulation. Financial products are no different. Free markets are not well supported when consumers are at risk for injury.”
It would be nice if this notion got an airing on Capitol Hill on Wednesday, when Representative Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who is chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, convenes hearings on the future of federal consumer protection in the financial industry. Makers of exploding toasters would surely be dragged to Congress to explain themselves; why shouldn’t the people who manufactured exploding mortgages be asked to do the same?
Some states are taking the matter of protecting consumers into their own hands. Last week, Maine’s state Senate followed its House of Representatives in unanimously passing legislation that requires lenders there to evaluate a borrower’s ability to repay a mortgage and recommend only loans that make sense for them. It would also prohibit lenders from charging financing points and fees in high-cost mortgages, a practice that allows lenders to both strip equity from homeowners and hide the true cost of the loan.
THE law brings to mind the suitability requirements in federal securities regulations that protect investors. Stockbrokers are not allowed to peddle stocks and bonds to clients whose financial situation or risk tolerance make the investments inappropriate. Why shouldn’t mortgage bankers be subjected to a similar prohibition?
Gov. John E. Baldacci is scheduled to sign the Maine Homeowner Protection Act tomorrow. Kaylene Waindle, special assistant to Glenn Cummings, Maine’s House speaker and lead sponsor of the bill, said: “While we hope that the federal government takes some action, to wait on somebody else to protect our citizens would be irresponsible. We also feel pretty strongly that this bill can serve as a blueprint for the federal government.”
State regulators have shamed their federal counterparts into action before. Let’s see if they can do it again.
Donald Says:
June 9th, 2007 at 6:56 pm
“Sans view and location, is there really any reason to live in Cliffside Park?”
I don’t know. Why don’t you ask the people that bought houses in Cliffside Park for $1.1 million and $1.8 million earlier this year?
Both 6 bedroom homes HAVE views.
Sad…
Cliffside Park
SLD HIGHRIDGE AVE $900,000 1/30/2006
ACT HIGHRIDGE AVE $999,000 10/2/2006
W-C HIGHRIDGE AVE $999,000 10/23/2006
ACT HIGHRIDGE AVE $999,000 12/13/2006
PCH HIGHRIDGE AVE $949,000 4/30/2007
PCH HIGHRIDGE AVE $969,000 4/30/2007
Two mortgages totaling $905k
Here’s what deep denial looks like –> http://homes.realtor.com/search/searchresults.aspx?mlslid=2404993&ml=3&typ=7
holy crap…..this has to be some kind of midget!
http://video.yahoo.com/video/play?vid=513360&cache=1
And all we do here is yammer about housing markets. This, however, is a crime:
WASHINGTON (AP) – Soldiers returning from war are finding it more difficult to get mental health treatment because military insurance is cutting payments to therapists, on top of already low reimbursement rates and a tangle of red tape.
Wait lists now extend for months to see a military doctor and it can takes weeks to find a private therapist willing to take on members of the military. The challenge appears great in rural areas, where many National Guard and Reserve troops and their families live.
To avoid the hassles of Tricare, the military health insurance program, one frustrated therapist opted to provide an hour of therapy time a week to Iraq and Afghanistan veterans for free. Barbara Romberg, a clinical psychologist in the Washington, D.C., area, has started a group that encourages other therapists to do the same.
“They’re not going to pay me much in terms of my regular rate anyway,” Romberg said. “So I’m actually feeling positive that I’ve given, rather than feeling frustrated for what I’m going through to get payment.”
Chi 518- I don’t think a midget can move their fingers like that.
An Irish Welcome
Here’s Céad Míle Fáilte to friend and to rover
That’s a greeting that’s Irish as Irish can be
It means you are welcome
A thousand times over
Wherever you come from, Whosoever you be
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htyHUX7Wg9U
lostinny (520)-
Don’t touch that midget…hand me the pliers!
Clot 522- Do you know where the midget town is in Jersey?
Lost (523)-
Right next to Funkytown.
hur hur Clot.
“I have a strong feeling that Duck is a property appraiser/ investor.”
No, I am not. I do not even work in real estate.
I sure feel bad for all those people on the cliffs. Every Saturday night there is a boat that travels down the Hudson with blasting Spanish music. VERY LOUD!! Everyone on the NJ and Manhattan cost hears it. YIKES!! I doubt anyone can put in a noise complaint since there is nothing the police can do.
If you are looking for quality furniture that is unique, but possibly a little nicked up, odd-balled, or rejected try this place. ABC is an expensive flat-iron district store, but their outlets have many interesting items, but you have to be willing to dig. Our big prize was six dining room chairs from Sherrill in NC [in 2005]. They originally retailed for $400 apiece, they were at the outlet for $250, and we “bargained” with the guy, got them down to $225 and had them throw in shipping to Hoboken.
The Hackensack place is obviously more convenient to everyone here, but the Hunts Point location in the Bronx is far superior in my mind. Bear in mind, you have to have the cojones to go there…..personally I am immune to caring. The parking is fenced in and plentiful. The real issue is dealing with the Cross Bronx and the GWB on the way back. As you all know the entire area is a traffic joke.
Note: even though it is an outlet, you have to play the outlet game….there are certainly many items of regular inventory at the usual astronomcal ABC prices.
http://www.abchome.com/Stores.aspx
Donald, how many times have i told you to stay off the computer and study for your algebra test?
You better not flunk another one or you’re grounded for a week, no television!
And I mean it!
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070610/housing_slump_hopefuls.html?.v=2
Interest rates rising, inventory rising … sellers prices not dropping … there will definitely be better buys this winter and in the Spring of 08.
We have officially shelved our look for houses in the best school districts in Bergen County (Glen Rock, Ridgewood, etc), but we’ll still be closely following this site and monitoring the few houses we really like.
Here’s what I don’t get: you list your house for $699,000 six months ago. Because there have been no takers, you now have it listed at $650,000.
So basically, you’re lowering your house $10,000 a month. If we came in with a lowball of $519,000, what do you think their reaction would be?
Sorry, that should read, ‘lowering your house by $8,000 a month,’ and not $10,000 a month.
JB or KL:
Please could you give me the details on MLS# 2390126.
Address:
DOM
Asking Price changes etc.
Thanks in advance,
Anti.
Spanish music? Sounds delightful. What’s your problem?
2390126.
Bad number AT does’nt work either GSMLS or NJMLS
“Read My Lips: NO REBOUND 2008 Misery -Real Estate Depression”
lol. I guess I never noticed it says “read my lips”.
thats damn funny.
booyee
SAS
KL:
That is the number that shows up on the gsmls page. I wonder if it is one of those *exclusive* listings which other’s can’t access.
See link below:
This one is in Florham Park
http://new.gsmls.com/public/detailLst.do?mlsNum=2390126
http://new.gsmls.com/media/getImage.do?mlnum=2390126&res=highres&num=0
Could you also look up another one for me?
This in Warren:
GSMLS Number: 2412942
http://new.gsmls.com/public/getMediaReport.do?mlsNum=2412942&imageCount=10
AT
Sorry, forgot to take the period out.
Address 211 PArk
Originally listed 939,000 8/06 w/d at 875,000 3/07 relist 735,000 reduced to current price 699,000
KL
Wow !!
That’s a major drop in asking price. Seems like a decent deal.
Damn, I wish I was ready to buy.
Thanks KL.
“If we came in with a lowball of $519,000, what do you think their reaction would be?”
Oh boy, this is such a good question I don’t even know were to start. How about this: GOODBYE!! If you want to live in a top notch school district, then you are going to pay for the privilege. Nobody is going to take $519k or anything close to it. Either pay at least $600k or you will not get the house.
#528 Donald’sMother, Just too funny. ROFLMAO
#517 gary and its ugly to boot.
And if you want good schools, you should be looking in Tenafly, not Geln Rock or Ridgewood. Tenafly has the best school district in Bergen County. Cresskill comes in second. On Newsweek’s list of the 100 best high schools in the U.S., Cresskill was the only school in Bergen County to be included. However, Tenafly was rated better than Cresskill on the NJ Monthly list.
“… sellers prices not dropping …”
Looks like the sellers are not so desperate to take pathetic lowballs from bargain hunters, huh?
Donald,
Spill the beans.
What did you pay for your place?
What are you currently asking?
How long has it been on the market?
jb
“Donald,
Spill the beans.
What did you pay for your place?
What are you currently asking?
How long has it been on the market?
jb”
All of this information has already been spilled by some of the other posters, but I wil play ball:
$840,000 (paid, 2005)
$869,000 (asking price, 2007)
10 months on market
Since it appears JB, Clot and other RE agents are on the board right now, I will re-ask a question that I posted when JB was on vacation last week. We found a house that we like, which is a FSBO that is listed as a 3-bd, 2-ba. All 3 bedrooms are on the second floor. One of them is small, and does not have a closet. I have been told by a friend that by law it cannot be classified as a bedroom because it does not have a closet. Is this an actual law that is on the books in NJ, or is it some sort of guideline that RE agents follow when listing a house. We would use the room as an office anyway, but as far as resale value there would obviously be a big issue if we could not list it as a 3-bd.
Thanks for the input,
AK
New 545-
That’s a good question. I’m not a RE but I saw a house where the 3rd br was so small, it was obvious it was a closet because the only thing that fit in there was a desk and a chair. I am not exaggerating. It was being used as an office. It was listed as a 3br. My little apt has no closet in the br but rather, right outside it. But I’m in NY. Personally, I think they list as whatever they want. But what do I know?
Donald,
First off, thanks for being honest about it.
Assuming that commission is set at 5% or so, after commission you’ll have actually lost money on your home, after two years of ownership. Given the fact that you are facing a loss, why try to sell at all?
jb
JB,
My commission is 4% and if I get close to my asking price, the money I will lose is very little and I can easily make it back on my next purchase since the property taxes will be 1/4 of what mine currently are. I’m not a math expert or MBA, but I think it equals out if I sell for a loss (after commission) or if I keep the place.
FY: The property taxes on the house I am interested in is just under $3,500. Mine are just under $13,000. If I lose $30,000, I can make it up in about 3 years.
#546
It is not that tiny…maybe 10×11 or something. Perfect for an office now and maybe a baby’s room later. But not really enough space to add in a closet to make it an “official bedroom” if that were necessary.
AK
The requirements for a legal bedroom are:
1. Door
2. Window
3. Closet
If you are misisng any of the 3 requirements above, then the room is technically a “den.”
518, 522, 523
As a little person (well, I’m 5 feet, 1/2 inches), I am compelled to point out that (while not right-wing) the use of the word “midget” rhymes with didgit (sic) and Gidgit, and is therefore to be avoided wherever it is also possible to use the phrases “shortie hoagie” or “mini me” instead.
Pat 553- I wonder if I offend my mother then. She’s about 4’10. I’ll have to ask her about that.
My commission is 4%
Do you feel the low commission puts you at a disadvantage?
jb
Grim-
Wouldn’t the 4% commission give him an advantage because he’s not paying out as much? Or did you mean that his agent is doing less work because the agent is getting paid as much as others?
556- I meant to say isn’t getting paid as much as others. Sorry.
Can any of the RE agents on the board confirm Donald’s comment about the legal requirements for a bedroom? Does anyone know where this law is on the books?
Also, what constitutes a closet? There is storage built into the wall that has a door, but I wouldn’t consider it a full-size closet.
AK
No, I do not JB. I paid 6% in Manhattan and the agents I got stunk. I remember one agent actually left fliers for OTHER apartents for sale in my complex on my kitchen counters. My agent can charge less because he owns the compnay, he does not need to share it with the brokerage house.
Sometimes I feel that I am overpaying at 4% because I can get a flat fee realtor to put the house in the MLS for $500 and then I only have to pay the buyer’s agent 2.5% commission. I think I might try doing this next year.
Jim,
I don’t feel 4% is putting Donald at a disadvantage, If the home is priced right it can be sold period……..
If it is not I can’t sell it no matter what he’s paying, that includes bonuses and the like.
KL
hey guys,
I was trying to pull up some recent comps in my area and I wanted to know how accurate the site below is. I found an apartment in Cliffside Park in the database that sold for $8,885,000. Can someone please confirm this?
http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4sr.cgi?&srch_type=1&ms_user=monm&district=02066893
I hate to sound like Pesche, but sounds like typical shady Persian real estate dealings…
#564,
What is a shady real estate dealing? Which transaction are you referencing?
For the posters above that wanted to know about homes paying more than $55k in annual property taxes, 101 Fox Hedge Road in Saddle River pays $106,782 in taxes.
“… sellers prices not dropping …”
Looks like the sellers are not so desperate to take pathetic lowballs from bargain hunters, huh?
Donald – we’re only a year or so into the decline in housing prices. We’ve probably got another year or so. The prices will fall.
Buyers will either have to lower their prices to sell, or remain in their house. It’s as simple as that, really.
Those who NEED to sell will receive plenty of lowballs – those who do NOT need to sell can reject all lowballs. And if you look at prices discounts, in some places they are being lowered by $8,000-$10k a month.
If what you say is true, maybe you should make Russell Simmons a lowball. He is asking $23,888,000. Let’s see what his reaction would be to $950,000.
Even if asking prices are comming down, that means nothing because, in comparison to 2005 prices, SOLD prices have barely came down. Don’t concentrate on asking prices. Look at the sold prices.
“Those who NEED to sell will receive plenty of lowballs – those who do NOT need to sell can reject all lowballs.”
and those who do NOT need to sell should not list, the are just adding to inventory, which will only make the prices decline harder. Donald may just be shooting himself in the foot here
And why should those that need to sell not list? Because you only want to see houses where the sellers will accept lowballs? You don’t want to see a nice house, put in a lowball, and then see it rejected. Sellers who do not need to sell SHOULD list. This way, when buyers give them lowballs, they will reject them and it will discourage the practice. If buyers go around putting in low offers and none of them are accepted, they will eventually realize that they are going to have to pay close to asking price.
This is why so many homes come on to the market with crazy asking prices. Sellers do this in order to protect themselves against lowballs. If they accept a lowball on an asking price that is $250,000 overpriced, they are not really losing.
CR has an update on May inventory projections. graphs included :)
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/06/unsold-houses-pile-up.html
Even if the current months of supply “levels off” for the year, we are looking at 1982. 2007 will make 1990 look good.
As for inventory comparison, we probably have to go back to ice age.
http://bp2.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/RlcHoEEpiGI/AAAAAAAAAis/5CbtU26DGRQ/s1600-h/Existing+Inventory+Mearures+April07.jpg
Well, apparently there are not that many people out there who need to sell as you like to think there are. I just checked the MLS and, in my area, asking prices are literally frozen. They have not been reduced for a long time. Do not think that everyone who is listed NEEDS to sell. They are in the minority. The majority of sellers are not desperate and can sit and wait for a long time. The media just likes to hype the few people who need to sell and are on the verge of foreclosure.
“Even if the current months of supply “levels off” for the year, we are looking at 1982.”
We are still far away from 1982 inventory levels. Do not exaggerate. And the inventory numbers are mis-leading. Not every house is in competition with each other. A $800k home in Saddle River is not affected by Russell Simmons’ $23 million mansion.
New (546)-
You can’t call it a bedroom, because your lender’s appraiser (or any appraiser, for that matter) won’t call it a bedroom.
Therefore, it will be comped to lesser homes, bringing down the value. If you can reasonably install a closet after you buy, then go ahead. But if it’s a 9 x 9 dungeon with no way of ever squeezing in a closet, don’t bother.
New (551)-
Wait a minute! 11 x 10 is the size of the fourth bedroom in many KHOV and Toll tract mansions.
That situation may be workable.
Since it was a nice day and I was curious, I went to see the Velocity Apartments in Hoboken. Since I live way back I actually went via the housing projects to see that part of Hoboken. I was pretty quite, but I realized when I got into the city that it was PR Parade day today, but they are not bab looking projects, however they could use some grass. (I would think the Neapolitan on Second St is in a worse position since one whole side of this complex faces the projects)
Had to sign in and talk to the marketing people, but they do let you freely look around. HEHEHE might be the only one that gets the comparison living in my building. The apartments are good not great. More noticable in the bathrooms. My master bath has a shower stall and wirlpool tub. thier bathrooms had nice marble, but the master baths had just a shower stall and were generally small. They also had the HVAC unit in the apartment where mine is outside in the hallway in a locked closet. The strangest thing was the hallway connecting the apartments. It was long (a whole Hoboken city block) narrow and white with a textured wallpaper. The outside lok ver conservative, but the inside is pretty artsy, depending on your tastes. If you had a courtyard apartment it would probably have good light and be pretty quite.
Talked to some people touring, one was an investor that had an apartment already in the Tea building. And I think he was looking to have another rental. I said that I was renting and it was producing a 4.2 yield for my landlord, so I asked him how his Tea apartment was doing. He said he had a 0% loan, so I said you paid all cash. He then corrected himself and he had a 5 year interest only loan and the rent was covering everything. He said something about how his son would move in after college and/or he would just refinance. I lost interest at that point and just noded.
They were part of a couple that compared rents in the TEA building and Manhatan rets at $2,500 for a one bedroom. I hope they realize there’s quite a drop off from there to Velocity.
Did the calcs assuming you could get $2,500 rent with $546 maint and taxes $455 for a two br two bath at $420k you would get 4.2% yield. Rent is my assumption based on the $2,800 I’m paying with what I believe is a nicer apartment and a better location. Although they will have a doorman. The rest of the numbers are the developers own and assuming that no one bids up the ask price.
It generally looked like a lot of people looking to rent them out or people looking for a bargain
a Co-work bought an apartment $411psf (I adjusted for a parking space included assumed $30k price). It was a first class build with a viking stove, etc. Actually looked nicer than mine, except for the concret construction.
chicagofinance – saw your post on the TEA building and not buying. Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t the TEA building have electric heat? I remember looking at a rental board once and the TEA got the most comments say 300 all negative. mostly management issues and not caring etc. But I remember one where they said they had a $300 electric bill to heat the drafty place. Don’t know or thing Toll would correct that.
for your calculation to work.. ( lower taxes compensating for loss ) you are in the category of HAVE to sell. there is a difference in selling your house for 850k now or after 7 years ( higher taxes for 7 years ). its just that you have another agenda close you your heart, for which you are willing to take this loss..”discourage the lowball practice”
“We are still far away from 1982 inventory levels.”
As i said, keep dreaming.
Click on this graph. Numbers don’t lie. Current inventory levels are near 4.5 mil. We have to go back to the start of ice age to get comparable inventory.
http://bp2.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/RlcHoEEpiGI/AAAAAAAAAis/5CbtU26DGRQ/s1600-h/Existing+Inventory+Mearures+April07.jpg
Donald (552)-
Is this law contained in the rules & regs of the NJREC? Is it in the body of consumer law somewhere?
I keep a copy of NJ statutes next to my desk, and I’ve never seen any law even vaguely refer to a “legal” bedroom.
There are, however, lending and appraisal guidelines for this sort of item (that’s where you get the “window, closet, door” thing). But, that’s a long way from being the law.
Donald
Don’ know if they are renters or owners (assuming owners), but here were two examples of the deep pockets in my new building:
To those who normally walk or take the light rail, do you wanna share a cab on Friday? its going be very cold, and if there are 4 of us, its only a dollar apiece (cheaper than the light rail). I usually leave anywhere from 730 to 8, so I am pretty flexible.
I see that a few neighbors get the Journal delivered on a daily basis,
and I was wondering if anyone would not mind passing on their copy to a
neighbor, when finished. I’m in the middle of a job transition, and
look forward to getting my own subscription down the line, but any
handing-down at this point would be appreciated and taken as a very
kind gesture. Thanks.
Hope they hold the line for you.
Pat (554)-
Best midget movie of all time: “The Station Agent”.
Filmed entirely in NJ, with Patricia Clarkson & Peter Dinklage (title role).
The best $1 rainy-day rental movie you’ll ever see.
Donald (561)-
If flat-fee realty worked, everyone would be doing it, and you’d see boarded-up windows at every traditional RE company out there.
All these companies put together don’t have a 1% market share in NJ.
Another idea that sounds great…doesn’t work.
Donald (571)-
Huh?
I don’t think flat fee realty is big because most people do not know about it. I only found out about it recently. Pretty soon, traditional agencies will be running scared. Discount agencies like Foxtons brought down 6% commissions to 5% and falt fee realty will do the same.
chicagofinance – saw your post on the TEA building and not buying. Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t the TEA building have electric heat?
YES
But I remember one where they said they had a $300 electric bill to heat the drafty place.
my last few PSR&G bills
79.77 06/05/2007
146.03 05/08/2007
218.31 04/11/2007
398.78 03/12/2007
235.75 02/06/2007
Can someone tell me their thoughts on Ridgefield. Seems to have reasonable taxes. Anything anyone wants to tell me about the town?
So it sounds that Velocity is going to be full of tenants with absentee landlords. That is not a good thing for those in owener-occupide apartments. Having too many rented units will prevent buyers from getting mortgagaes and hoeowners from getting home equity loans.
Were there really people that were stupid enough to comapre Velocity to Hudson Tea? They have nothing in common.
I live right next door to Ridgefield. I think it is a nice town; just dorve through it earlier today. Just be careful that you don’t live too close to Fairview….
Comparing Velocity rents to those in Manhattan? Wow, talk about stupid. If these people were really that dumb, they deserve to live in the ghetto. Rich neighborhoods are only for smart people or stupid (but RICH) rap singers.
Can anyone with full MLS access confirm whether a condo in Cliffside Park sold for $8,885,000?
http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4sr.cgi?&srch_type=1&ms_user=monm&district=02066893
Donald (586)-
Wrong again. Foxtons has never cracked the .5% market penetration barrier in NJ, and is, in fact, the remains of a company (YHD) that burned through 40M of venture capital in dot-com like haste.
Since their complete takeover of YHD, their business model has changed appreciably at least FOUR times. The latest incarnation no longer stresses “full service at 3%”, since their 1% incentive to buyers’ agents isn’t exactly setting the world on fire these days. They just shuttered their operations in upstate NY, and their future prospects in NJ are bleak, to say the least. A quick survey of their licensees shows very few agents that have more than one year of RE experience.
In fact, if you gave me a choice between flat-fee realty and Foxtons…I’d take the flat-fee option. Foxtons is THAT useless.
BTW, Foxtons didn’t take commissions from 6% to 5%…the market did. And (don’t look now), commissions are on the rise again.
Guess we’re like proctologists…you don’t need us, until you NEED us.
Donald (591)-
It is a character flaw that I feel compelled to respond to you. But, didja ever think that rich neighborhoods were just for RICH people? And, there are a lot of ways to get rich in NJ.
What does “smart” or “dumb” have to do with it?
That’s it? That’s how the Sopranos ends?
Donald
I have to admit that I was hearing sound bites of their conversation and since the guy I talked to had a unit in Hudson TEA, I am assuming that’s how it got mentioned.
If I had to generalize I would say that all were drawn to Velocity for a bargain and not many there looked like the $500 to $600k condo type.
here is a blogers link to the site
http://hobokenhero.blogspot.com/2007/06/velocity-hoboken-open-house-actually-40.html
based on some of his pictures I thought that it might have been a better build than what I am renting, but it is not. Heck I even have a double sink in my master bath and not even the three bed room has that. Do like the court yeard concept they had considering the 2am garbage pick up in Hoboken and other street noise. But when I see what my co-worker got for $411 psf, don’t know if their price is a good discount. There is also a ton of stuff still under development around the area
I do know that if it is rentals that a broker will drive up to show them the shop rite and the Madison Arts center and Shades Restaurant. the entrence is at the mid point of the block so unless the unit looks out over the projects, the “out-of-towners” will have no clue they are there until the ink on the lease is dry. I also noticed that Brokers will drive you around Hoboken so the five minute drive doesn’t seem like much of a walk.
The marketer did say that 29 units were under contract, so I guess not all pre-construction types bailed. But I still wonder who will pick up maintenace on the unsold units or what power the developer will have on the board until he is out of the project.
They do have a slick marketing co though that pointed out that some units have private Juliet balcony
“They do have a slick marketing co though that pointed out that some units have private Juliet balcony.”
The better to jump off when you figure out exactly what your cost of occupancy really is.
I don’t think commissions will go up for everyone. Why should the seller of a $5 million mansion have to pay the same percentage of the seller of a $400,000 condo? Sellers of higher end homes should not be paying 6%. When I shopped around for an agent, lots of them were quick to drop their rates down to 5% and even 4% when I told them the approximate value of the home. Now, if I was selling a $350,000 starter home, I doubt they would have dropped their rates.
RentinginNJ Says:
June 10th, 2007 at 10:11 pm
That’s it? That’s how the Sopranos ends?
I actually thought it was a great ending. Because they leave you feeling on edge, that someone might make a move on them at any moment, that everyone is suspect, and with a cloud over their heads from Carlo about to testify. Leaves room too, for a follow up movie or more shows. Brilliant.
600?
Tony is dead, he never saw it coming…Just like he said to Bobby in the boat….
601-
Or maybe he’s alive, and just narrowly escaped. Or he just finished another ‘happy’ dinner with his family, in that classic Soprano – esque way.
They leave you wondering.
#599 Looking,
I know. You are right. The moral of the story is that Tony will be looking over his shoulder for the rest of his live; whether he lives another 50 years or whether he doesn’t make it out of the diner. This show was supposed to reflect a real life mobster and in “real life” things seldom wrap up neatly.
It still would have been nice to have some closure.
Donald,
Since we’re being “truthful”, let me be the seventeenth person to tell you (you delusional bastard) that you’re not going to get anywhere near your asking.
Actually, you’ll be lucky to get $700,000.
You will not be paying lower taxes simply because you will not be living in Alpine.
Why?
Because no one will buy your house for anywhere near what you paid in 2005 (which, even if someone does, will be a loss for you Ari) let alone anywhere near what you need to make a profit.
Face facts Mr. Manlang, if you really want or need to sell, cut the price.
I just checked the MLS and, in my area, asking prices are literally frozen. They have not been reduced for a long time.
Cliffside Park
REALLY?! What about this one?
SLD SUMMIT TER $840,000 4/4/2005
ACT SUMMIT TER $998,000 8/22/2006
PCH SUMMIT TER $975,000 10/4/2006
PCH SUMMIT TER $939,000 10/15/2006
PCH SUMMIT TER $919,000 10/29/2006
W-C SUMMIT TER $919,000 1/10/2007
EXP SUMMIT TER $919,000 2/23/2007
ACT SUMMIT TER $905,000 1/10/2007
PCH SUMMIT TER $899,900 1/16/2007
PCH SUMMIT TER $899,800 3/20/2007
PCH SUMMIT TER $889,000 4/2/2007
PCH SUMMIT TER $884,000 4/11/2007
PCH SUMMIT TER $879,000 4/16/2007
PCH SUMMIT TER $874,000 4/23/2007
PCH SUMMIT TER $869,000 5/3/2007
W-T SUMMIT TER $869,000 5/17/2007
W-C SUMMIT TER $869,000 5/17/2007
ACT SUMMIT TER $86,900 5/16/2007
PCH SUMMIT TER $869,000 5/17/2007
Hell, your loser neighbor’s listing above is due to lower his price to $849,000 within a week… ($9k above purchase price minus inflation = LOSER).
“….Face facts Mr. Manlang, if you really want or need to sell, cut the price….”
WTF? Are we listing personal information about people on this site now? Angry RE agents feeling the weight of the eight ball struggle with a reluctant seller who bought at the top of the market? Can’t make ends meet? So push other people to lose ‘their’ ass?!
Perfect ending for a “Soprano” movie and a few sequals behind it.
Everything is Money motivated. How much would a Sopranoe movie gross during the first weekend?
can someone say record breaker. Ca-ching.
441: No, Southern-fried asshole is NOT an ethnicity; it’s a redundancy.
607 –
What if David Chase just has more stories in him?
It seemed like even the finale was stuffed with three or four episodes in one.
Was wondering if Hobokenrenter had more details on the Madison condo auction in Ewing. I called the auctioneer (max spann) and was told the condos went for 230-260 which i frankly did not believe. 208 sounds much more reasonable. any details would be sweet.
thanks