“It’s a blood bath”

From Bloomberg:

Mortgage Rate Rise Pushes U.S. Housing, Economy to `Blood Bath’

The worst is yet to come for the U.S. housing market.

The jump in 30-year mortgage rates by more than a half a percentage point to 6.74 percent in the past five weeks is putting a crimp on borrowers with the best credit just as a crackdown in subprime lending standards limits the pool of qualified buyers. The national median home price is poised for its first annual decline since the Great Depression, and the supply of unsold homes is at a record 4.2 million, according to the National Association of Realtors.

“It’s a blood bath,” said Mark Kiesel, executive vice president of Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., the manager of $668 billion in bond funds. “We’re talking about a two- to three-year downturn that will take a whole host of characters with it, from job creation to consumer confidence. Eventually it will take the stock market and corporate profit.”

Confidence among U.S. homebuilders fell in June to the lowest since February 1991, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index released this week. Housing starts declined in May for the first time in four months, the Commerce Department reported yesterday. New-home sales will decline 33 percent from 2005’s peak to the end of this year, according to the Realtors’ group, exceeding the 25 percent three-year drop in 1991 that helped spark a recession.

“It’s not just a housing recession anymore, it looks more and more like an economic recession,” said Nouriel Roubini, a Clinton administration Treasury Department director and economic adviser who now runs Roubini Global Economics in New York.

“I continue to believe that we haven’t seen the bottom in the subprime market,” Viniar said on a June 14 conference call with reporters. “There will be more pain felt by people as that works through the system.”

“There isn’t a recovery about to happen,” said Ara Hovnanian, chief executive officer of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., the Red Bank, New Jersey-based homebuilder. The company’s stock tumbled 42 percent this year through yesterday.

“When all these people see their mortgage payment and it’s up 40 or 50 percent, they’re going to say, `We can’t stay in this house,”’ Pimco’s Kiesel said. “And there are millions of people in this situation.”

Roubini predicts the decline in U.S. home sales will last at least another 12 months, reducing the median house price by 5 percent this year and next. That would take home prices back to 2004, when the national median was $195,200.

The primary cause of the 1990 to 1991 recession was a real estate boom and bust similar to the past seven years, Roubini said. A real estate “bubble” in the mid-1980s led to speculative buying and lower credit standards that resulted in widespread foreclosures, he said. The defaults triggered a credit crunch that turned into an economic recession in the spring of 1990, said Roubini, who is an economics professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business.

Some owners are selling their homes at “fire sale” prices to avoid foreclosure after seeing their adjustable mortgage rates spike, said Lawrence White, an economics professor at the Stern School of Business.

“Prices will continue to soften for as long as we have distressed sellers,” White said. Some regions of the U.S. could see price declines of 10 percent in the next six to 12 months, he said. The slump probably won’t cause a recession, he said.

The biggest problem is volatile home prices, said Gary Shilling, head of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic forecasting company in Springfield, New Jersey. Shilling put the chance of a recession this year at 75 percent.

“A lot of people went out on a limb to pay the record high prices for homes, and they’re in trouble now,” he said.

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272 Responses to “It’s a blood bath”

  1. James Bednar says:

    From the Record:

    Corzine’s hopes dashed on family leave bill

    Governor Corzine won’t get his wish on paid family leave – at least for now.

    A spokeswoman for Corzine said he has accepted that the Legislature won’t pass a bill by the end of this month to give employees the right to paid family leave.

    The bill (S-2249) would give employees up to 12 weeks of paid family leave. Workers would receive two-thirds of their weekly wage, up to $488 a week, funded through salary deductions.

    Business leaders, who bitterly oppose the bill, said two months ago that the bill’s advance was among their biggest concerns going into the spring legislative session.

  2. James Bednar says:

    From the Daily Record:

    N.J. falls below top 10 states in population

    For the first time in modern history, New Jersey has been bounced from the top 10 states in population, ceding its place to North Carolina.

    Are those leaving the state mostly young, skilled workers, whom the state eagerly wants to keep?

    Or older people, empty-nesters, cashing out of their high-priced houses?

    That won’t be known until the 2010 Census, Joseph J. Seneca, chairman of the state’s Council of Economic Advisors, said Tueday.

    The decline may mean less congestion and less pressure in general, but Seneca, also a professor at the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning & Public Policy at Rutgers University, called the trend “disturbing.”

    In general, population grows because of natural increase (births minus deaths), foreign immigration and internal migration, he explained.

    In New Jersey, “Overall, there has been a substantial increase in the net population leaving for other states,” he said.

    In 2002, some 23,759 New Jerseyans left. In 2006, some 72,000.

    At that rate, the state’s population growth could turn negative this year, Seneca added.

    In his talk, sponsored by Palisades Financial of Fort Lee, the economist gave reasons for optimism about the state as well for worry.

    Despite slowing population growth, he pointed out that income gains for state residents were “significant.”

    Household income in New Jersey is the highest in the country, and per capita income ($46,344) is the second-highest (trailing only Connecticut).

    If the 11 countries in North and Central Jersey were one metropolitan area, it would be the fourth-largest in the country in population size, fifth in employment, fifth in total market value and fifth in income, Seneca said.

    “For its breadth and depth, this is a much sought-after location.”

    On the housing slump: “It’s still unwinding,” Seneca said. But prices have not fallen enough to bolster sales.

    Tougher lending rules have contributed to the increase in the number of houses for sale, he said. And when a first-time buyer is discouraged, four other sales up the line don’t happen.

    On job growth: Nationally, it has been “generally solid.”

    In New Jersey, employment is at an all-time high but growth has been “tepid”: less than half the national growth rate.

    While new jobs in professional and business services have increased, most of the new jobs are in low-paying sectors, such as hospitals.

  3. James Bednar says:

    Interesting map/overlay over at the Big Picture:

    House Price Appreciation: Q1/2007

  4. James Bednar says:

    From the Record:

    Economist: N.J. economy may slow down

    New Jersey’s economy will be hampered by slower job growth and a declining population, outweighing positive factors such as the nation’s highest income, a low unemployment rate and a strong commercial real estate market, a Rutgers University economist said Tuesday.

    Perhaps most significant is the rate of migration out of New Jersey, the economist said. This year for the first time, New Jersey is no longer among the 10 most-populated states, edged out by North Carolina. More than 72,000 people left the Garden State last year. Until U.S. Census 2010 figures are released, it’s unclear as to who these people are and why they left, said Seneca, who also is chairman of the New Jersey Council of Economic Advisors.

    New Jersey may have a negative population growth rate by the end of this year, Seneca said, which will harm the overall economy.

    The gap in rent prices for Class A commercial real estate in North Jersey compared with New York City — as much as $50 a square foot in some areas — has helped bring new tenants to the area, Seneca said. But the housing market is a different story. New building permits were down 11 percent in 2006. Gains in the median sale prices of new homes have slowed. The tightening of lending practices after the subprime mortgage meltdown has lowered home sales, Seneca said.

  5. James Bednar says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Mortgage applications decrease

    Mortgage application volume decreased a seasonally adjusted 3.4% last week, as interest rates on fixed-rate home loans stayed relatively flat, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday.
    Applications were up 13.2% compared with the same week in 2006. The four-week moving average was down a seasonally adjusted 1.6%.

    Both applications to purchase a home and refinance an existing mortgage were down for the week ending June 15. Purchase applications fell a seasonally adjusted 3.0% compared with the week earlier; refinance applications were down 4.2%.
    The refinance share of all mortgage applications remained at 38% for the week, while the ARM share increased to 20.3%, from 18.7% the week before.

    According to the MBA survey, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.60%, down just slightly from its 6.61% average the week before. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.28% for the week, unchanged from the previous week.
    The average rate for 1-year ARMs was 5.70%, up from 5.48% the week before.

    But at least one economist is questioning how good an indicator the applications are in predicting home sales these days. In his daily notes, Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, said in recent months the volume of applications for mortgages to finance a home purchase has “hugely overpredicted the level of home sales.”

    “We think this is largely due to multiple applications by people with less-than-perfect credit, who are now finding the mortgage market a much tougher place than just six months ago,” he wrote in his analysis. Multiple applications are not taken into account in the MBA data, he said, and Shepherdson suspects that the rejection rate is rising.

  6. pesche says:

    family leave: code word for deadbeats

    NJ is a welfare state: growth comes
    from loading up state and muni jobs.

    Business is leaving : why not, unfriendly.
    even Atlantic City is having problems,why?
    Regulation.

    Corzine: Guy’s a commie.
    Population Leaving: Yes, martha lets
    retire to Pert Amboy,Clifton,or one
    of the many retirement communities in
    NJ.

    But it’s OK. Let’s go to the Mall.

  7. thatbigwindow says:

    Does anybody know how much a land survey costs? Apparently, when we bought our house we never got one because our lawyer “didn’t want to do it”

    Last time I hire a family member.

  8. pesche says:

    couple of hundred,

    HOw could you close without a survey?

  9. chicagofinance says:

    Bob: You have to use this article’s title as your new name!

  10. chicagofinance says:

    You can’t have gloom without THE MAN

    `Economic Recession’

    “It’s not just a housing recession anymore, it looks more and more like an economic recession,” said Nouriel Roubini, a Clinton administration Treasury Department director and economic adviser who now runs Roubini Global Economics in New York.

  11. thatbigwindow says:

    “HOw could you close without a survey?”

    Apparently it is possible…

    I wonder if the town has anything like that on file?

  12. James Bednar says:

    Sure is a grim kind of morning.

    jb

  13. chicagofinance says:

    this article is long and it is unrelenting….man…..sucks!

  14. chicagofinance says:

    James Bednar Says:
    June 20th, 2007 at 7:52 am
    Sure is a grim kind of morning.
    jb

    Booya as it were

  15. thatbigwindow says:

    Well, on the positive side we won’t be seeing as many absurdly large houses on 50×100 lots with that huge window above the front door showcasing the home depot chandelier. That is probably the #1 thing that annoyed me about the housing bubble.

  16. Lindsey says:

    Re post 3:

    JB, that’s actually an interactive map at Global Insight’s site with some very interesting historical info.

    Here’s the Url:

    http://tinyurl.com/yj5a4d

    Have fun.

  17. Lindsey says:

    Re post 6:

    Pesche, could you be more dense? You are a true miracle of backward thinking.

    How could the family leave act translate into people being deadbeats when they have to have a job to receive the benefit?

    The things you write would be funny if they weren’t so nasty and foolish. You are truly a wonder of ineptitude.

    You keep calling NJ a welfare state when New Jerseyan’s are stuck paying the freight for all those welfare queen states out west and down south that get by on all those federal tax dollars the “welfare queens” in NJ manage to provide for them through…. I don’t know, all the subsidies they recieve?

    It’s all so ridiculous as to be laughable, but then you top yourself by calling the former head of an investment bank a commie.

    Stop, you’re killing me.

    I’d say you were a clown, but that’s an insult to clowns.

  18. 2010 Buyer FKA 2008 says:

    Could another shoe be dropping…

    Two Big Funds at Bear Stearns Face Shutdown

    The Bear Stearns hedge funds’ problems are emblematic of the widening fallout from the nation’s housing downturn, which just a few weeks ago seemed to be stabilizing….A forced sale of the Bear Stearns funds’ assets now could trigger a broader repricing of mortgage-backed bonds and lead to losses and margin calls — demands for additional cash or collateral — at other funds..No one in the subprime business wants to ask the question of whether they need to re-mark all the assets

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118230204193441422.html

  19. 2010 Buyer FKA 2008 says:

    Follow-up on the use of leverage
    As of March 31, 2007, the Enhanced Leverage fund had $638 million in investor capital and at least $6 billion in borrowings. It used the money to make $11.5 billion in bullish bets and $4.5 billion in bearish bets…. Its sister fund had $925 million in investor money, and made $9.7 billion in bullish bets and $4 billion in bearish bets….A high level of “leverage,” or use of borrowed money, magnifies returns for a fund if everything works as planned. If the security drops in value, that same leverage can amplify losses.

  20. Lindsey says:

    OT, but something to think about:

    http://www.taxfoundation.org/blog/#22444

  21. gary says:

    All this so-called doom and gloom and yet, the only thing that matters, the price, is still at insulting levels.

  22. 3b says:

    #7 tbw You have a survey, you needed that to close. I think you mean a staking of the property (not sure of the exact term), where they actually mark off the property line with stakes. That costs a cuple hyndred bucks extra.

  23. Lindsey says:

    This graph goes with the link in post 20. It looked like it was there, I swear.

    Four states—New York, New Jersey, Delaware, and Alaska—receive more revenue from toll collections than from gas tax receipts. The Empire State collects over four times more from tolls than gas taxes. Some states have no toll revenue.

  24. 3b says:

    #21 gary The sellers have to capitulate at some point.

  25. gary says:

    3b,

    I receive listings daily from 3 different realtors and I’m still shaking my head in disbelief. Who in the world is buying these homes? If they weren’t selling, wouldn’t I notice a stark reduction? I certainly know what a split in say… Paramus was going for in 2005. Why do I see the same price tag today?

    My only inclination is that this area of country is sort of insulated and still one of the most sought after places to live.

  26. Lindsey says:

    Re post 21:

    Gary,

    The pace may not suit you, but prices are starting to move down, at least in Monmouth County where I track the numbers on a monthly basis.

    FTR, my January call out in the prediction thread was for a 10% drop in prices nationally. Considering that something like that has never happened, (hell, it’s not even come close to occurring) that’s actually quite a limb to go out on, but I’m getting more comfortable with it every day.

    Now if only JB would start looking at foreclosures…

  27. gary says:

    Lindsey,

    Perhaps I’m too impatient.. and getting older by the minute. :)

  28. Hobokenite says:

    NJgal,

    I gave a description of the International Baccalaureate yesterday in case you didn’t see it. But Wikipedia probably has a better description:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Baccalaureate

  29. 3b says:

    #25 gary: And that is why all of those houses are still sitting, nobody for the most part is buying, or can buy.

    It takes 2 to have a real esate market, if sellers want to sell, they will have to price accordingly, to meet the new reality.

    That is why I feel there has to be a significant drop failry swiftly (20%) to get things moving again.

    And even after that drop prices will still probably continue to drift downwards, and remain flat for years.

  30. SG says:

    gary: You already own a home, what is the rush then. I have increased my principal payment to much larger amount. The more I pay to principal, the less I pay Interest. Moving up would mean larger portion toward Interest. Actually, at current rate, I may be done with mortgage in few years. Then when I will shop around for bigger house, it will be much less mortgage.

    Most of us have to just get over with Keeping up with Jones’s thinking.

  31. Lindsey says:

    Re post 25:

    Gary,

    We aren’t insulated in the sense that “it can’t happen here,” but we are a bit insulated because so much of the NJ market (particularly NNJ) is made up of existing inventory.

    Since you’re here I’m sure you’ve read about the auctions that are taking place in other parts of the country (50% drop at Fort Myers, Fla. condo site). That is obviously connected to the fact that builders need to get paid for the work they have done, and are far more motivated sellers than a guy who’s thinking of moving across town.

    I would suggest you stop making yourself crazy by getting these constant updates. Take the summer off from your search and give the market a few months to catch up to you.

  32. NJGal says:

    “Well, on the positive side we won’t be seeing as many absurdly large houses on 50×100 lots with that huge window above the front door showcasing the home depot chandelier. That is probably the #1 thing that annoyed me about the housing bubble.”

    Hahahahaha! I can’t stop laughing, seriously. Those houses actually make me ill they’re so ugly – who thinks they’re attractive? Ugh!

    Thanks hobokenite – I am going to look at that link.

  33. gary says:

    SG/Lindsey,

    It’s probably more of a personal thing for me.. almost an obsession if you will. Heck, we’re probably all obsessed based on our frequent visits to JB’s blog. (lol)

    I guess it’s also the competitive nature in me that is sort of rooting for the market to swing the other way real fast. It’s probably also because of the way sellers and realtors treated us a few years ago when we were looking.

    Whatever the cause of my illness (lol), you’re right, I should have a cocktail, take a chill pill and let it all unwind.

  34. gary says:

    jb,

    I’m in moderation, please release me!! :)

  35. RentinginNJ says:

    Household income in New Jersey is the highest in the country, and per capita income ($46,344) is the second-highest (trailing only Connecticut).

    What good is having a very high income when the cost of living far exceeds these high income levels? Incomes in NJ are about 30% higher than the national average, but the cost of living is 50% higher.

    In this case, high income is more of a liability. Not only does ones income not go as far in NJ as it does elsewhere, but New Jerseyans face higher federal income tax levels and a growing threat from getting swallowed by the AMT monster.

  36. James Bednar says:

    As long as zoning allows, builders will continue to build as large as possible in an attempt to maximize margin. The fixed costs associated with new construction (or major remodels) is massive in comparison to the variable costs associated with increasing the size of the structure. Not to mention the fact that building a smaller structure might not even be feasable due to the high breakeven cost associated with the cost of acquisition of buildable property.

    jb

  37. Lindsey says:

    Jumping back to yesterday for a moment:

    Dreamtheater,

    That lease deal is criminal.

  38. gary says:

    The 10yr. is down to 5.11%.

  39. RentinginNJ says:

    Are those leaving the state mostly young, skilled workers, whom the state eagerly wants to keep?
    Or older people, empty-nesters, cashing out of their high-priced houses?

    Anecdotally, from what I have seen, it seems like mostly younger people.

    For older empty-nesters, property taxes are the biggest concern. However, either their homes are already paid off or their mortgages are very reasonable. An empty nester’s main motivation for leaving would be to cash in on the house and to cut a few $k off their tax bill. On the other hand, they often have established roots in NJ and most don’t want to look for a new job at that point in life. One of the biggest reasons I hear for not moving is losing a pension and retirement benefits. All in all, I hear a lot of griping, but don’t know many empty nesters (pre-retirement) that have actually picked up and left.

    For younger people, it can be nearly impossible to get a footing in NJ unless you come from money or have an outstanding (i.e. Wall Street $) job. Where I work, we have had 3 young people (out of 4 in the department) leave NJ over the past year, despite good solid white-collar middle class jobs. They all cited cost of living and quality of life.

  40. nwbergen says:

    Pesche.

    I am in complete agreement with your post. NJ is a welfare state and the fine citizens have been indoctrinated into submission.

  41. Jill says:

    I’m here until both my DH and I are either retired or unemployed, and then hopefully we head to NC. Not because I love the climate, but because I can’t see being 80 years old and paying $1000/month in property taxes or more.

  42. RentinginNJ says:

    The bill (S-2249) would give employees up to 12 weeks of paid family leave. Workers would receive two-thirds of their weekly wage, up to $488 a week, funded through salary deductions.

    This would be ripe for abuse. Some people would see this as a 12 week vacation courtesy of the PRNJ. With the $488/week income limit, this would most be utilized by lower income folks.

    This is just another redistribution of wealth policy intended to appease the unions.

    Given that NJ is clearly losing its competitive edge, is this really the best time to be adding another burden to businesses in the state?

  43. James Bednar says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Paulson upbeat on global economic outlook

    Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson delivered an upbeat report to Congress on the global economy, saying it was stronger than any time in the 1980s and 1990s and progress is being made to resolve nagging global imbalances. “The global economy is now firing on all engines in a way that produces better balance, more sustained growth and expanding opportunities,” Paulson said in testimony prepared for delivery to the House Financial Services Committee. Paulson noted that the U.S. current account deficit has narrowed to 5.7% of U.S. GDP in the first quarter from a peak of 6.8% in the final three months of 2005. “Progress is being made,” he said.

  44. pesche says:

    #40
    the libs see it a different way.

    deadbeats are the ones always looking
    to go on the arm for something.

    benefits: Companies (owners) oppose it
    because its a cost they cant afford.

    NJ is a welfare state. I stand by those
    words.

    And housing is finally beginning to take
    its toll on NJ.

    Wait for more of the adjustables to adjust.

    What happens next: a bailout by the state?

    More cost to the taxpayers.

  45. pesche says:

    and our boyfriend corzine never saw a tax
    him and his friends did not like.

  46. HOUSE OF CARDS says:

    Mortgage applications drop as rates remain high !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    >from USATODAY
    http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2007-06-20-mortgage-apps_N.htm

    NEW YORK (Reuters) — Applications to buy and refinance homes dropped last week, an industry trade group said Wednesday, the latest sign that housing remains mired in a downturn.
    The Mortgage Bankers Association’s mortgage application index slid 3.4% to a seasonally adjusted 643.7 in the week ended June 15.

    HOUSING STARTS: Home building falls, but permits up
    BUILDER SENTIMENT: Index hits lowest level in 16 years

    The drop in applications piled on to reports from the country’s builders and the government this week suggesting that any sustained housing rebound could be next year’s business.

    Housing starts fell more than 2% in May as builders grappled with a stockpile of unsold homes, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.

    FIND MORE STORIES IN: MBA | Housing starts | Builder | Home building
    Sentiment among home builders sank to its weakest level this month in more than 16 years, based on an index reported on Monday by the National Association of Home Builders. The group expects building and sales will keep eroding until late this year before starting to recover in 2008.

    On Wednesday, the MBA’s seasonally adjusted purchase index fell 3.0% to 450.9 while its refinancing applications index shed 4.2% to 1,776.8 on a seasonally adjusted basis.

    Thirty-year mortgage rates dipped 0.01 percentage point last week to 6.60%, the MBA said. Average 30-year mortgage rates last hovered in this area in July 2006.

    Last week, the MBA reported that homeowners started the foreclosure process at a record pace in the first three months of the year.

    Among the bigger problems were subprime adjustable-rate mortgages in some of the markets that had been the hottest during the five-year record home price and sales spree earlier this decade.

    Riskier borrowers are increasingly being pushed into the foreclosure process as their adjustable loans reset at much higher loan rates, boosting payments beyond reach.

    On Tuesday, Dallas Federal Reserve economist John Duca cautioned that the housing slump could be prolonged by lenders cutting back loans to subprime borrowers, or those with blemished credit histories.

    Many lenders have become much more restrictive in response to the mounting late payments and foreclosures. As a result, more applications are being rejected, and builders worry that rising mortgage rates will weaken demand for homes already pressured by tighter lending practices.

  47. Stu says:

    Trivia question…

    What was Corzine’s tax rate on income in 2003?

  48. par4156 says:

    Does anyone here think that part of the problem with the current housing market is….design. Lot’s of younger buyers seem to be into the “charecter” thing with houses…and we know that the 4-5 bedroom, 2.5-3 bathroon center hall (authentic) colonial is going to command some sort of premium relative to later models. Also, boomers seem to have had very different needs and tastes to more recent buyers. Could part of the problem be that there is really a shortage of certain types of houses which explains the stubborn prices as clueless sellers with “non-desireable” homes try to comp with the desireables?

    just wondering…

    btw – what the … is happening to mortgage rates? Things seem to be picking up quickly…the tiny window for reducing overall buying costs by “low-balling” over the past few months may be gone soon!

  49. Al says:

    Lot’s of younger buyers seem to be into the “charecter” thing with houses…and we know that the 4-5 bedroom, 2.5-3 bathroon center hall (authentic) colonial is going to command some sort of premium relative to later models.

    Wake up…

    Lot’s of younger buyers can not afford 2 bedroom 800 sqft Cape-cod…..

  50. Stu says:

    Corzine Earned $32 Million in 2003

    In 2003, Corzine paid $3.81 million in federal taxes and $1.94 million in state taxes. He checked off the box on his state taxes to dedicate $1 to the state’s public finance system for gubernatorial candidates. Because he’s not adhering to the spending limits required under that program, he is not eligible for matching funds. [Star Ledger, 5/17/00.

    So thats what less than 11%? I don’t remember what year it was, but I remember reading that he paid only 6% of his income to Uncle Sam.

    I gross about 200K sit in AMT and without my 2-family home to help me with my taxes would be in the 25% tax bracket.

    Forget about home ownership which is a poor investment. My friends, tax breaks on the wealthy is what is keeping the rest of us down.

    One other trivia question…what was the highest tax bracket during the great depression?

  51. Clotpoll says:

    pesche (8)-

    You can close if the seller provides an affadavit stating there have been no changes to the property lines during his ownership.

  52. chicagotroll says:

    car lease user = self-identified low IQ scorer

  53. dreamtheaterr says:

    #37 Lindsey, sad indeed. For those who might be interested, this was the post

    dreamtheaterr Says:
    June 19th, 2007 at 10:32 pm
    Out of curiosity, I went to leasetrader to see the kind of leases available. You can pretty much tell some of the folks have been taken to the cleaners by the dealership coz they went shopping with a ‘monthly payment’ in mind.

    For example, this guy http://tinyurl.com/yvx4t9

  54. Clotpoll says:

    Lindsey (31)-

    Gary enjoys driving himself nuts. He’s a self-loathing homeowner.

  55. MS says:

    RE: #15 thatbigwindow
    I LOVED that comment! I live in Cedar Grove/Verona area and it seems that all the teardowns look like that (oversize house with big window over front door showcasing the Home Depot chandelier).
    Really and truly ugly, and the houses have no soul or character.
    By the way I’m still bothered by yesterday’s Texaninexile’s comments regarding the NJ town she’s willing to move to and the “type” of people that live there (because she views her PhD as high status). Doesn’t she realize that in EVERY town in northern NJ there is diversity? There can be a PhD and a high school graduate living side by side, whether in a miniscule cape or big McMansion, and the high school graduate with his/her own business may actually earn more. I LIKE the diversity of NJ (and yes, I also have a PhD)and the fact that it’s NOT all “gated communities” with everyone in the neighborhood the same.
    And by the way, PhDs cannot normally afford the expensive, ritzy neighborhoods.

  56. john says:

    How much do these people make that you consided it a solid white collar job?

    Re 39For younger people, it can be nearly impossible to get a footing in NJ unless you come from money or have an outstanding (i.e. Wall Street $) job. Where I work, we have had 3 young people (out of 4 in the department) leave NJ over the past year, despite good solid white-collar middle class jobs. They all cited cost of living and quality of life.

  57. 2010 Buyer FKA 2008 says:

    It pays to look at the details…..

    The paid family leave bill, S-2249, would extend Temporary Disability Insurance for up to 10 weeks to care for sick family members, newborn and newly adopted children. Sort of a family temporary disability leave. The fund to extend the benefits to workers would be created by a .1 percent contribution from workers to provide them two-thirds of their weekly salary up to $488.

    Unless there are some major life events (which you would have to disclose to your company), I don’t think anyone would actually want to live off of 67% of their salary for 10 weeks.

  58. UnRealtor says:

    Chi, if your car needs fall into specific parameters, a lease can work out nicely.

    For example, if you’ll drive about 11K miles a year, don’t want repairs, need a “reliable” vehicle, a lease can work out nicely.

    Additionally, you can have lots of fun driving impractical vehicles that you don’t really don’t want to own long-term:

    http://www.pontiac.com/solstice/index.jsp?useFlash=N

  59. par4156 says:

    Al,
    Re: 49. Who wants a 2 bedroom, 800 sq ft Cape? What are you talking about?
    I’m obviously referring to people who can afford to buy whenever they want. go find someone your size to pick on…lightweight.

  60. par4156 says:

    Chicagotroll,
    “car lease user = self-identified low IQ scorer”

    Wow. thanks for establishing your superiority. Next time I need a definition, I’ll throw you a bone. Good boy…sit…roll over.

  61. gary says:

    # 55,

    …that will sell his house without the aid of a used house tour guide.

  62. RentinginNJ says:

    Lot’s of younger buyers seem to be into the “character” thing with houses

    Most young buyers I know would just be happy to afford a decent house in a decent neighborhood that is in decent condition.

    When most young people I know (Wall Street $ or family $ aside) talk about “character”, it’s usually to convince themselves that the POS 1940’s cape they bought has some redeeming qualities.

  63. par4156 says:

    ok. Al…ChiTroll. …I’m not usually this rude. getting annoyed waiting for some things to get done here…..no need for me to react that way to someone’s opinion.

  64. Willow says:

    #56

    Interesting comments. My husband and I both have master’s degrees plus and we live in a small cape cod on a street where most of our neighbors have never been to college at all. I never really thought about it before and don’t think it makes any difference to us. My son’s best friends’ parents haven’t been to college and have blue collar jobs. Do I think this will affect my son’s education goals? Not at all. What it teaches him is that friends come in all types of people. Economic diversity is something my children should be exposed to so they don’t think everyone has the money for the McMansions, BMWs, shore houses, etc.

  65. par4156 says:

    RentinginNJ,
    Re #63. I hear you, however, most young people I know really mean the updated colonial. It doesn’t have to be 3000 sq ft. For me, I would have been willing to buy any decent house with a new roof, plumbing and electric…no water problems…etc, etc. Boy oh boy – Did I ever get it wrong. Got the new roof and plumbing…but for the sake of “character” (updated colonial) got the house that needed electrical overhaul (allbeit factored into the price). At least I figured out who the boss was :)

  66. john says:

    Re 63

    Funny thing is how people bash Wall Street. All my school teacher, firemen, cops, union neighbors will be at the shore all summer relaxing while I get up at 5:50 am everyday to get to the city and I am lucky to make it home by 7:30pm yet they complain we make more. We make the same hourly rates as teachers but hey when you work 100% more hours a year you should get paid 100% more. If that texan teacher and her husband went to a more lucrative job they could make more. I guess they expect the sellers to cut their price so they can still afford to not work all summer, must be nice.

    RentinginNJ Says:
    June 20th, 2007 at 10:45 am
    Lot’s of younger buyers seem to be into the “character” thing with houses

    Most young buyers I know would just be happy to afford a decent house in a decent neighborhood that is in decent condition.

    When most young people I know (Wall Street $ or family $ aside) talk about “character”, it’s usually to convince themselves that the POS 1940’s cape they bought has some redeeming qualities

  67. make money says:

    ChicagoTroll #52

    “car lease user = self-identified low IQ scorer”

    Only cause you provoked me!

    I never owned my own car, and lease a couple cars a year. Currently leasing S550.
    I would never drop $120K for a depreciating asset and (only cause you I had enough) would never get caught dead driving a honda civic.

    Driving is fun and driving a S550 is an adventure. I also own an M6andmy fellow bloggers it’s like getting into a batmobile.

    It makes me feel like Batman.

    I have a 6 family in brooklyn with $4,000 per month positive cash flow that I bought in ’99 and my renters are paying for my cars and my wife’s.

    I know I have a LOW IQ. I should be saving for retirement. Guess what?

    I’M RETIRED.

  68. Al says:

    par4156 Says:
    June 20th, 2007 at 10:42 am
    Al,
    Re: 49. Who wants a 2 bedroom, 800 sq ft Cape? What are you talking about?
    I’m obviously referring to people who can afford to buy whenever they want. go find someone your size to pick on…lightweight.

    I am sorry but if you are obviously referring to people who can “buy whenever they want” – there is no shortage of high end properties on tha market in NJ, and you post #48 does not make any sense at all !!!

    go find someone your size to pick on…lightweight.

    I thoght I did not pick at anyone – there was no personal comments.

    you post started: Does anyone here think that part of the problem with the current housing market is….design.

    So you are asking for opinion about problems on the housing market I provided my opinion. In the future please specify something like this one:

    For very rich young buyers who are looking for a definite style of houses there is a big deficit of quality homes.

    Than I would not comment at all since I do not belong to either category.

    par4156 Says:
    June 20th, 2007 at 10:47 am
    ok. Al…ChiTroll. …I’m not usually this rude. getting annoyed waiting for some things to get done here…..no need for me to react that way to someone’s opinion.

    Apology accepted.

    on the final note:
    Re: 49. Who wants a 2 bedroom, 800 sq ft Cape?

    A lot of people buying those cape-cods so you comment unfortunatelly being tipical snobbish NJ comment.

    Person who are not making as much as you is good enough to cut you hair, clean your garbage, babysit your kids, but obviously not as good of a human being as you are.

  69. JBJB says:

    Pesche is absolutely correct. NJ is not only a welfare state, it is the premier welfare state in the US.

    The only noticeable job growth in NJ is the state payroll. This means taxes will never stop going higher and the services will continue to get worse (how about that 2 hour commute on NJ Transit for 330$/mo, real nice eh?). The really rich, of which there are many in NJ, will not really be bothered by this and will keep voting for corrupt Dems to appease their liberal sensibilitites. The upper earners and the productive will eventually leave for a better enviornment, I would even consider NYC a better environment as even though it is expensive, there is real value gained by living in Manhattan. So eventually you will have a small group of rich people, a heap of lazy state employees and unionists, and the illegal immigrants who serve them. Real nice. This is the Webster definition of a welfare state.

  70. James Bednar says:

    From the Jersey Journal:

    Open Space Tax in the Mile Square City

    Hoboken City Council is scheduled to introduce an ordinance tonight that would pave the way for the city to become the first municipality in the county to implement an open space tax on its residents.

    The proposed two-cent open space tax is likely to get council approval, putting the ultimate decision in the hands of the city’s voters in a public referendum that would be on the November ballot.

    The two-cent tax would mean an increase of $20 in annual taxes for every $100,000 of assessed property value.

    Officials said the tax would generate roughly $500,000 in annual revenue, which could help purchase properties and create parks and open space in the dense, congested city.

  71. anonymous says:

    Our survey cost $700 and if we wanted it to be staked it was $900

  72. bergenbuyer says:

    I’m seeing prices move down, but not across the board yet. I think part of the issue is also the lack of new construction in NJ, most houses for sale (at least by me) are existing homes. There’s no catalyst (yet) to make existing home sellers lower their price like you have in other areas where builders are lowering their prices more aggressively.

    I noticed more price reductions in August last year when people “had” to sell becuase they had already moved, started school, didn’t want to hold onto the house during typically slower fall/winter months, etc.

    I think the same thing will happen again this year, last year was a paper cut, this year will be a blade, whether it’s a butter knife or a sword, we’ll have to wait and see.

  73. pigpen says:

    #65 Willow-
    Right on. The wife and are are first time buyers. And while we could probably squeak into one of the “premier” towns in a POS cape and be in house debt, we are choosing to buy a POS cape in a less desirable town with lower taxes so we can continue to invest & save. We do pretty well for our age, and will probably continue on that track into our careers. regardless of our income, my children will understand the value of a dollar. How can you teach them that when their friends get BMWs for their 17th birthdays?

    #66 – can you elaborate on ‘electrical overhaul’? as stated above, i’m looking to buy an older home and am trying to anticipate all of the necessary costs and upgrades. Why do you need an overhaul? Is it because today’s appliances simply need more power than original system can support? Or is there a problem with the actual system, etc – as in: are you ripping down walls to get to the wiring?

  74. par4156 says:

    Al,
    Re #69. hey…I’m sorry you think i’m snobbish. I’m a middle class, minority, immigrant who is fiscally conservative but values certain things in life. there’s nothing wrong with an 800 square foot cape…but i lived in an 800 square foot apartment for 6 years and that’s just not for me anymore. No disrespect to anyone if that’s their thing.

    I’m not rich and buy whatever I want, but I know how to save, be patient and compramise on what I want so that I can afford something that will make me happy. That’s all i was saying.

    That being said…the lightweight comment still stands because I’m pretty sure I’m a heavier than you :)

  75. thatbigwindow says:

    Re: Character of house

    That is exactly what we were looking for when buying a house. Our house was built in the early 1900’s, has 2 stained glass windows, mahogany stair case, original chestnut moldings throughout, front porch, etc. Although our house is small in comparison with the McMansions (we don’t have an eat in kitchen, and only have 1.5 baths), we would take it any day over a newly built house. I see how these things are built, cheap plywood, particle board, etc. Our old house with character is built quite well, so well that we don’t have to run the A/C on the first floor because it doesn’t get above 72 degrees…

  76. BC,

    Just sent you an email.

    Thanks

    KL

  77. par4156 says:

    Also,
    post #48 was a direct referance to my situation. We were ready and could afford to buy…but had a hard time finding the right combanation of amenities…

  78. Al says:

    I’m sorry you think i’m snobbish. I’m a middle class, minority, immigrant who is fiscally conservative but values certain things in life.

    Funny.

    I am middle class, immigrant and also fiscally conservative(at least I like to think so).

    We were ready and could afford to buy…but had a hard time finding the right combanation of amenities…

    If money are not an issue – why don’t buy a cape cod – (cheap) and tear it down and build your dream home??

    Or buy a home which is close to what you want and remodel?

  79. RentinginNJ says:

    How much do these people make that you consided it a solid white collar job?

    In the $85k – $100k range for a younger worker with experience, but not in management.

    While it doesn’t go far in NJ these days, I would consider that to be a respectable middle class white collar income for a younger worker.

  80. par4156 says:

    Thatbigwindow,
    Interesting. Seems like we have a similar house. we hardly run the a/c on the first floor (or the basement) either. The attic does get really hot though so I’ll have to install a fan pronto. I’m glad my wife convined me to go with the character thing. made me see a house as more than shelter the weather.

  81. par4156 says:

    Al,
    I guess we got lucky. We decided to stop looking ..but I’d sneek looks at the MLS late at night…and I saw a house, and asked the wife to take a look before i saw it…because of all her “requirements”. i saw it the day after and put in a bid immediately. It seemed the sellers really needed to get going…so we could be aggresive with the bid. For us, it paid off to streach out the search for a long time.

  82. James Bednar says:

    From CNBC:

    CNBC’s Gasparino: Banks Selling Bear Stearns’ Hedge Fund Assets

    JPMorgan Chase and Deutsche Bank have already seized and are beginning to sell off assets from troubled Bear Stearns’ hedge funds, according to CNBC’s Charles Gasparino.

    “Apparently, the fire yard-sale is beginning,” Gasparino said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street. “It started with JPMorgan. It’s going to end, maybe with Merrill Lynch later today.”

    In addition, unnamed sources told Gasparino that Deutsche Bank has a list of $300 million in assets it plans to sell. There also are other assets that are up for sale, he said.

    Two big hedge funds at Bear Stearns were reported to be on the brink of collapse on Tuesday night after Merrill Lynch rejected a bailout plan, the Wall Street Journal reported.

  83. thatbigwindow says:

    #82, yeah the basement is coooold as well. Maybe our old houses are just haunted…

    Another cool thing about these old houses are the things you find left behind. A few weeks ago I found an old letter from the 1940s and a really old tube of poli-dent

  84. NJGal says:

    Par is actually right – I don’t know why he’s being attacked. As a first time buyer, character was important – I didn’t get quite as much as I wanted since my house is newer and “character” does equal $1.5 million or more up by me, but I also didn’t buy a 1980s McMansion sh-tbox with plastic veneer doors. “Character” is basically something that tells me that a home is well built and solid – after all, if the woodwork is still there and intact since 1920, something was built right. Plus, maybe it’s because I grew up in an old house, it seems more “homey” to me.

    As for other design, I do think there aren’t enough attractive single story homes around for retired boomers – as I’ve said before, my parents don’t want a condo, but they can’t stay in their big 2-story for long. But decent ranches and capes are hard to come by where they live – they would love the option to move into something like that in lieu of what they have now.

  85. par4156 says:

    ok. things finally rolling here…catch up in the PM.

  86. RentinginNJ says:


    RE 63:
    Funny thing is how people bash Wall Street.

    Funny thing is how people bash Wall Street.

    How in the world can you possible interpret my comment as “bashing Wall Street”. People who work on Wall Street generally have higher incomes and can therefore afford to be choosier when looking for a home. That’s just a fact. There is nothing wrong with that and you are entitled to everything you earn.

    I’m sure when you factor in the hours you work versus a teacher, your hourly pay is probably much closer than many people would think just by comparing paychecks. Trust me, I’m the biggest complainer when it comes to public employee salaries.

    I just don’t see how you can possibly interpret my comment as bashing Wall Street.

  87. thatbigwindow says:

    As far as leasing goes, from a cost perspective doesn’t it cost much less to own a car? If you own your car outright, vs. paying $300 a month to lease it, you wouldnt have $300 a month in repairs unless your car really was a lemon.

    Even if you finance a car, and pay $400 a month, you eventually pay it off. With leasing you are constantly paying every month. And when your car gets old, you don’t need as much insurance so that cost goes down as well. Cars are built much better today than they were 20+ yrs ago.

  88. James Bednar says:

    From Reuters:

    Bear CDO lists total at least $1.44 bln – sources

    The sale of securities from troubled Bear Stearns hedge funds includes at least $1.44 billion in collateralized debt obligations, according to bid lists obtained by Reuters.

    The lists, circulated by JPMorgan Securities and Morgan Stanley, include CDOs managed by Tricadia Capital, Strategos Capital Management and Bear Stearns Asset Management.

    Wall Street dealers are participating in sales of the securities from the Bear Stearns hedge funds that endured double-digit losses in April, based on subprime mortgage market bets. Merrill Lynch & Co. has seized $800 million of assets from the funds with plans to sell them today after a failed recapitalization, sources familiar with the situation said.

  89. chicagotroll says:

    If I wasn’t clear….leasing cars is for the lazy and mentally weak.

    If you don’t understand this statement, then I am referring to you.

  90. par4156 says:

    Re #91. That comment is mentally weak! I love how lack of self esteem makes people try to push random opinions down other people throats. Good thing i don’t eat crap!

  91. Pooch123 says:

    Chicagotroll…

    The lease v. buy discussion’s been exhausted here. If you want to discuss it further I’d take it to the finance forum at fatwallet.com

  92. par4156 says:

    Chitroll,
    look at #89 to see how opinions can be presented in order to influence. At least make an effort to sound intelligent…yeeeshh.

  93. JBJB says:

    Auto leasing is a good deal if you want to drive a cool new car every 2-4 years. This is very appelaing to many people including me. From a cost/relaibility perspective, the best auto deal may be to purchase a 2-3 year old Accord or Camry coming off lease. Buying a new car is insane with the depreciation and all.

  94. dreamtheaterr says:

    I came across the extract of an article today. Can the wise folks in here please elucidate if this is true?

    It’s important to understand that bond professionals don’t want to think badly of the job done by the credit-rating agencies. The bankers pay the rating agencies’ fees. (Bet you didn’t know that. Yep, the issuers of debt are the ones who pay the bills.) The bankers literally sit across the table from the rating agencies. The banks poach anybody on the other side of the table that they think has the talent to work for them. And the banks rely on the credibility of the rating agencies to sell their debt offerings. It’s a pretty cozy club.
    But the subprime debacle has been big enough to disrupt the club. Buyers of packages of subprime mortgages and derivatives based on these packages that have been burnt by rising defaults on these mortgages and falling prices for the debt they hold have angrily wondered if banks issuing the debt disclosed all the risk. And the banks have passed the buck, saying, that they relied on the ratings from the three agencies.

    The ratings agencies have become so entwined with the banks who issue the debt they’re called upon to rate that they really aren’t independent any longer. In the age of increasingly complex derivatives, debt rating agencies often actively work with debt underwriters to ensure that the different pieces, called tranches, of the offering are crafted to earn the necessary credit quality ratings to appeal to investors with different appetites for risk.

    You don’t have to believe in collusion between debt underwriters and the ratings agencies, however, to worry that the system isn’t working. The criticism here is coming from bond professionals who have produced a series of studies showing that pools of debt called CDOs (for collateralized debt obligations) aren’t showing the patterns of return and default that their credit ratings predict. For example, one study shows that tranches of CDOs with the same BBB credit rating, which should trade at roughly similar prices, are instead trading at yields that differ by anywhere from 1.4 to 10 percentage points. At the A and BB levels, the gap is something like 4 percentage points. The U.S. Federal Reserve recently weighed in with a paper that said the ratings for CDOs are riddled with “anomalies.”

  95. par4156 says:

    NJGal,
    Re #86. I have a friend that keeps saying my house is “homey”. I guess that’s one of the qualitative measures for character.

    Thatbigwindow,
    Re #85. I missed out on finding the cool things. previous ower was a contracter and he ripped out most of the walls and rebuilt from the frame. Good for the insulation but noting to find. The guy accross the street did tell me the shinge siding is original though…said he worked on the house as a kid!

  96. john says:

    RentinginNJ Says:
    June 20th, 2007 at 11:23 am
    Actually that goes pretty far, prior to ten years ago no young single person thought they deserved to own and most rented with friends. A newly married couple each making that much money has a $200K income and that is a lot of cash. They should be able to afford a house.

    How much do these people make that you consided it a solid white collar job?

    In the $85k – $100k range for a younger worker with experience, but not in management.

    While it doesn’t go far in NJ these days, I would consider that to be a respectable middle class white collar income for a younger worker.

  97. john says:

    Actually, buy a three year old car with extremely low depreciation is not a good deal. You are getting a car with the best three years of life gone without much off the original price. Compare a three year old Taurus with a three year old Camry with the same milage. There is a huge price difference even though new they were close in price. The Camry hands down is the one to buy new while the Taurus hands down is the one to buy used.

    JBJB Says:
    June 20th, 2007 at 11:58 am
    Auto leasing is a good deal if you want to drive a cool new car every 2-4 years. This is very appelaing to many people including me. From a cost/relaibility perspective, the best auto deal may be to purchase a 2-3 year old Accord or Camry coming off lease. Buying a new car is insane with the depreciation and all.

  98. abamitphd says:

    #96: do you have a link?

  99. 3b says:

    Getting back to that increase in housing permits yesterday (+3.5) according to an article in today’s NYT’s that increase was almsot entirely do to an increase in permits for apartment construction (rentals).

  100. par4156 says:

    Pigpen,
    Re #74. Both. Upgrading the capacity meant we had to change the old wires. That wiring wasn’t made for the fridges, dishwashers, washer and dryer, etc houses have today. I was lucky to have a brother-in-law who is a licensed electrician and a father-in-law who seems to enjoy working on “projects” at my house. Also, the previous owner put several access ports in the walls for plumbing, wiring etc. Without those breaks it might have cost me about $10,000 or so???

    Sometimes the wiring and/or capacity is already upgraded but the way the upgrading is done (in an older home) may not be the best. The best thing may be to write a seperate electrical inspection into the contract and negotiate the final price before you buy.

  101. chicagotroll says:

    john Says:
    June 20th, 2007 at 12:09 pm
    Actually, buy a three year old car with extremely low depreciation is not a good deal. You are getting a car with the best three years of life gone without much off the original price. Compare a three year old Taurus with a three year old Camry with the same milage. There is a huge price difference even though new they were close in price. The Camry hands down is the one to buy new while the Taurus hands down is the one to buy used.

    john-john: are you trying to prove my point?

  102. chicagotroll says:

    Pooch123 Says:
    June 20th, 2007 at 11:57 am
    Chicagotroll…
    The lease v. buy discussion’s been exhausted here. If you want to discuss it further I’d take it to the finance forum at fatwallet.com

    Doggie: no it hasn’t, because the way it was left yesterday, it was not given a thorough trashing as what NOT to do……plus par-bond comes out with the pure ignorance yesterday that endorsed it……

    I leave it to “make money” to give us more useless pondering of a man-child

  103. chicagotroll says:

    case in point…..there are financial advisors out there who strongly endorse leasing…why?…so clients don’t take out any assets under management….

  104. john says:

    Re; john-john: are you trying to prove my point?

    Yes and No. A lot of people are saying buying a three year old Camry/Accord is a good deal. It is a bad deal. For example I bought a new car in 2005 and my 1996 Camry with 48K miles was worth $5,500 and my wife’s 1998 Sable with 28K miles was worth $5,500. The Sable was two years newer with half the mileage and ran better so I kept it. Plus the 50K camry timing belt expense was coming up and I did not want to do it. Don’t worry I bought the Sable used in 2000 for $11,300 with 9k miles, You have to be nuts to buy one of those sable/taurus cars new but man they run forever and are cheap second hand!!!! They are today’s Dodge Darts for the college kids of today. Cheap, easy to fix, runs forever and ugly as sin!!

  105. dreamtheaterr says:

    abamitphd Says:
    June 20th, 2007 at 12:18 pm
    #96: do you have a link?

    Here: http://tinyurl.com/24wd2l

  106. pigpen says:

    #102:
    Without those breaks it might have cost me about $10,000 or so???

    So what you’re saying is that I should just continue to rent forever? ;)

  107. RentinginNJ says:

    A newly married couple each making that much money has a $200K income and that is a lot of cash. They should be able to afford a house.

    This is somewhat true for two people pulling in $100k each, for the people in question though, none had spouses making that kind of money. I would say they probably had combined incomes closer to the $140k range.

    For the ones who left, it was a matter of quality of life. They could eek their way into a starter cape & live paycheck to paycheck, working to pay their property taxes, or they could take a very modest pay cut & move someplace where they could live comfortably. For 1 person, once kids came into the picture, it became “we can do better on one income somewhere else than on 2 incomes here”.

  108. Read My Lips: NO REBOUND NO HOPE 2008 Misery -Real Estate Depression says:

    notice a few disgruntled posters on board.

    Just as predicted the hugary bunch and grubbing bunch out in attack mode.

    Times are tough …huh?
    hehehehehehehe

    A suggestion lower your dream prices down to 2002 prices you’ll find a buyer. otherwise don’t hold your breath it ain’t going to sell.

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAA

    Bob

  109. abamitphd says:

    #107 and #96

    The allegation is that ratings agencies are putting high ratings on securities that they “know” are higher than they deserve because they want fee income.

    My personal view is that this charge is unfair. Rating agency methodology is pretty transparent to any investor looking at putting money in one of these securities. That does not mean the agencies have not made mistakes, but these mistakes are likely genuine errors in judgement (in reference to a very complicated problem) and not intentional “mistakes” made to defraud investors.

    At the end of the day, if you are paid to manage a portfolio, you are responsible for the due diligence on anything you buy. That is why you are getting paid so much money in the first place.

  110. Read My Lips: NO REBOUND NO HOPE 2008 Misery -Real Estate Depression says:

    “When all these people see their mortgage payment and it’s up 40 or 50 percent, they’re going to say, `We can’t stay in this house,”’ Pimco’s Kiesel said. “And there are millions of people in this situation.”

    HOLY SMOKES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  111. Mortgage Observer says:

    dreamtheaterr #96

    It is true that it is one big club.

    The problem these folks are faced with is that many of the default assumptions made assumed stable interest rates and steady or rising home prices. They also assumed a low levels of delinquency.

    Now that the exact opposite is happening no one knows the true value of the securities in question or how much risk they are exposed to.

    This is the why there is so much interest in the Bear Stearns situation. The Securities being sold are thinly or rarely traded. Therefore it is hard to determine what the value is.

    This is effectively a foreclsure sale so many of the securities being sold will now be sold at what the current market value is.

    All the Wall Street folks are afraid of this as they all own some of these types of securties. There is a real risk that they will need to value their assets based on this fire sale.

  112. Read My Lips: NO REBOUND NO HOPE 2008 Misery -Real Estate Depression says:

    “A lot of people went out on a limb to pay the record high prices for homes, and they’re in trouble now,” he said

    YIKES!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Why is this a surprise to anyone?

  113. 2010 Buyer FKA 2008 says:

    #96

    Its a very convoluted process to issue a bond to say the least, wish I had the time to give a detailed explanation. For example, when you are structuring a bond to go to market, you have to meet certain criteria for a tranche (think of a slice of pizza – one slice is AAA, another is AA, and so forth) to be rated AAA. This “criteria” is set by the rating agencies so the banks have to structure the bond in a way that satisfies the agencies. Of course you can go back and forth before the rating agency gives their stamp of approval to say that this trance is rated AAA. It helps your argument if you have a former agency person working for you. Why is this important? There are investors (pension plans, mutual funds, etc.) that are have an investment strategy that calls for purchasing AAA rated bonds so they rely on those ratings.

    The issue is that the rating agencies criteria is based on historical data (like what happened in 2006) and not updated to reflect what’s happening today. The market has changed so fast this year, so you can see the flaw in that. That’s the reason why you are seeing a record number of down grades of bonds. The investors are upset in that they thought they thought paid for a AAA bond (beautiful renovated colonial) but in fact, its probably closer to a AA (half a$$ renovation done) or A bond (nice POS cape) which does not perform as well.

    Hope that helps.

  114. Read My Lips: NO REBOUND NO HOPE 2008 Misery -Real Estate Depression says:

    IT IS GOING TO GET ALOT WORSE.

    COMPRENDE?

    Accept it and make decisons based on this or else sink with the ship to the bottom.

    babababababababa

  115. par4156 says:

    Pigpen (108),
    or get the fully updated (including electric) house??!! As long as you’re happy…keep on renting, especially if it allows you to fully fund those retirement accounts!

  116. chicagotroll says:

    Wall Street Journal
    Editorial
    Paid Not to Work
    June 20, 2007; Page A16

    New Jersey was recently ranked by the American Legislative Exchange Council as the fifth most hostile state for business, which means there’s still work to do to get to No. 1. The pols in Trenton seem more than up to the task.

    A Senate panel in Trenton will soon vote on legislation requiring most New Jersey employers to provide paid family leave. Employees would be eligible for up to 10 weeks off and $480 a week to care for a child, parent or spouse. This is in addition to vacation or sick days that most employees already receive.

    About a dozen other states are considering variations of the New Jersey proposal, and Senator Ted Kennedy is pushing a federal law requiring that employers pay for up to seven days of sick leave a year. New York legislators want to require employers to provide 12 weeks of paid leave for the birth of a child, an adoption, or for care of an ill spouse, parent, in-law or sibling. Maine wants its law to cover “domestic partners.” A Georgia proposal would offer paid leave for school conferences, medical checkups and immunizations. You can see where this new job entitlement is headed.

    [edit]

    The European Union is said to be the model, which we suppose it is if you like higher unemployment. Swedish workers are eligible for the Mercedes of paid leave policies: 80% of salary for an unlimited time period. But according to a study by the Heritage Foundation, “At any given moment, 10 percent of Sweden’s workers are on sick leave and over three-fifths tell pollsters that they take the leave when they have no health problems.”

    The cost and rigidity of such European labor laws explain why the female jobless rate is about 50% higher in Euroland than in the U.S. Far worse than a job without generous benefits is no job at all.

  117. Read My Lips: NO REBOUND NO HOPE 2008 Misery -Real Estate Depression says:

    “There isn’t a recovery about to happen,” said Ara Hovnanian, chief executive officer of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., the Red Bank, New Jersey-based homebuilder.

    “Holy Cow Batman”!!!!!

  118. Lindsey says:

    John,
    Are you on some kind of medication today?
    How did you fall for a 2-year-old car with 9K miles?

    Was it owned by a little old lady who only drove it to church on Sundays?

    Would you be interested in buying some waterfront property I happen to have for sale?

  119. dreamtheaterr says:

    #115

    “The investors are upset in that they thought they thought paid for a AAA bond (beautiful renovated colonial) but in fact, its probably closer to a AA (half a$$ renovation done) or A bond (nice POS cape) which does not perform as well.”

    LMAO…..loved that analogy!!

  120. BC Bob says:

    “Holy Cow Batman”!!!!!

    Depression [119],

    I can guarantee tha Ara is not portraying the Joker.

  121. 2010 Buyer FKA 2008 says:

    #111 and #113

    I don’t think there are any attempts by the agencies to defraud anyone, the pproblem is all of the assumptions used in their models. And some of the assumptions are not updated to reflect what’s happening in the market.

    Since we are on a housing blog I’ll say it another way, you need to get an appraisal (rating agency) to purchase a property. When the appraiser gets comps for the house they could possible use #1 – a house that sold Apr 2006 at $625k, #2 sold July 2006 at $620k, and a house that sold Oct 2006 at $605k. The seller thinks its worth $610k, the mortgage thinks its worth at least $605k, and you the buyer is willing to buy for $595k. We all know there has been an incredible run-up so the house is probably really worth $575k. Is the appraiser wrong in saying that the house is worth $605k?

    The Bear Stearns case is interesting in that everyone thinks what they own is worth somewhere near $610 (carrying on their books) but a sale of these assets will give them a realistic (think of as a recent comp price) price of their bonds.

  122. Stu says:

    The only time depreciation should be considered when buying a car is if the buyer plans to sell it (unless it is a depreciable business expense). On paper, my Civic is worth $750. My mechanic offered me $2,000 for it at the last oil change and a DMV offered me $3,000 for it last year. Of course to me, it is worth the original $14,000 I paid for it since it is as reliable and smooth running as the day I bought it.

    Leases, point blank, are for people who always want to be driving a newer car. You could achieve the same result buying a new car every three years and trading it in every three years.

    But if you don’t plan to sell your auto and don’t mind driving an older car, there is no argument for leasing over buying.

    There is an argument for buying used cars over new cars though, but then reliability plays a larger role in the cost effectiveness of the equation.

    Hopefully now, we can put this argument to rest. But, somehow I doubt it ;)

  123. Donald says:

    “The fact that objective data shows that 1)Weehawken’s schools are on par with the Bergen County average”

    What? You have to be kidding me. Don’t compare a single district in Hudson County to every single district in Bergen County. That makes ABSOLUTELY no sense. Compare Weehawken to a specific district in Bergen, like Tenafly. BIG DIFFERENCE. Do not let sub standard districts like Englewood and Garfield bring down the excellent schools like Tenafly and Cresskill.

    Based on the way you compare schools, it sounds like you went to a really bad district as a child….

  124. James Bednar says:

    From Reuters:

    Subprime mortgage bond index falls to record low

    The ABX derivatives index dropped to a record low on Wednesday amid continuing concerns about a hedge fund facing potential losses due to its holdings of risky subprime mortgages, traders said.

    The ABX 2007-1 “BBB-minus” index, which references home loans made to risky borrowers in the second half of last year, dropped to 59.25 compared to 60.39 on Tuesday, according to one trader.

    The “market has settled down after the initial flurry of selling but the sentiment is still very poor,” a second trader said.

    “Hedge fund liquidations and forced selling will keep the market from posting any lasting and meaningful rally. More paper is going to come out and try and get sold,” the trader said.

    The ABX 2006-2 “BBB-minus” index, linked to loans made in last year’s first half, is trading at 65.50 compared to 67.67 on Tuesday, the first trader said.

  125. chicagotroll says:

    Sub-prime hedge fund stuff…..I was talking about this in December 2005……

    Let’s see if I can find it….

  126. afe says:

    Funny thing is how people bash Wall Street. All my school teacher, firemen, cops, union neighbors will be at the shore all summer relaxing while I get up at 5:50 am everyday to get to the city and I am lucky to make it home by 7:30pm yet they complain we make more.

    John,

    I have always wondered for the wall st people making the dough or others making a lot of dough by working so many hours, why buy a fancy house (where u end up spending the least amount of your time and end up a/c’ing/heating/maintaining it) when you are not around to enjoy it.

    afe

  127. chicagotroll says:

    afe: you have to compensate your wife and kids for being absent

  128. chicagotroll says:

    I did find this….

    chicagofinance said…
    Anonymous said…
    I found a house I’d really like to bid on but it needs a lot of work cosmetically but I still want an inspection. They’re asking way too much.
    ….
    What do you think? I want to bid about 20% lower then asking. What do you guys think?
    7/30/2006 10:00:29 AM

    I think you should cross off 2006.

    Thank me later.

  129. UnRealtor says:

    Make Money #68, does the M6 pull like a rocket ship or what? I think that one clocks in at $115K.

    You probably would have been satisfied with the performance of the M3, but if you’ve got the coin for the 6, what the hay.

  130. afe says:

    chicagotroll,

    I guess so. But I am sure if you really asked the wives/kids, they probably want their dad or parents around instead of a CHC and rolling landscaping with a “beautiful” chandelier to stare at. No? Maybe b/c I come from a tradition of being fiscally conservative too that I never quite understood that trade-off.

    afe

  131. James Bednar says:

    Sub-prime hedge fund stuff…..I was talking about this in December 2005……

    Let’s see if I can find it….

    Quick search came up with this post, Feb 06..

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2006/02/10/home-prices-do-fall-a-look-at-the-collapse-of-the-1980s-real-estate-bubble/#comment-3125

    the question?

    what will substitute for the 1987 & 1990 stock market crashes, and will there be another Wall Street shakeout?

    early contenders?
    – hedge fund shakeout
    – fixed income shakeout

    Bad news for hedge funds, Lehman, Bear Stearns, conventional US banks.

  132. BC Bob says:

    “These somewhat illiquid securities are priced according to complicated mathematical models worked out by guys who would be rocket-scientists if rocket-scientists made more money, and some observers wonder if anyone really has a good way of evaluating their worth.”

    From #123,

    This is the problem. Derivatives are traded between parties (OTC). They are not marked to the market. Since there is no real market it’s marked to the model. Assumptions are built in which in which both parties [different models] may indicate profits. It’s more like marked to myth. Once CDO’s start to get downgraded or a hedgie is forced to sell, {Bear}, that’s when things start to turn ugly.

  133. chicagotroll says:

    I wrote this? No wonder I’m -ucking rich!

    chicagofinance Says:
    February 12th, 2006 at 3:50 pm
    transmission:

    excellent point

    look at the timeline implicit in grim’s 1980s document

    now extrapolate using 2000-01 as the starting point

    the question?

    what will substitute for the 1987 & 1990 stock market crashes, and will there be another Wall Street shakeout?

    early contenders?
    – hedge fund shakeout
    – fixed income shakeout

    next hot financial leaders
    – IPO
    – M&A
    – International

    Bad news for hedge funds, Lehman, Bear Stearns, conventional US banks.

    Good news for GS, MS & Citigroup.

  134. afe says:

    c-troll,

    Also as a wife, if my husband absolutely HAD to work or he really enjoyed what he was doing and chose to work that hard, then I think I would rather spend some of that “excess” on fancy vacations, eating out, or buying comforts for the hubby that makes his life a bit less hectic/stressful. just my .02

    afe

  135. chicagotroll says:

    The IPO angle is actually in Europe as we speak. The one x-factor that I didn’t call was all of the Private Equity takeouts….

  136. Lindsey says:

    Pesche, nwbergen, and JBJB,

    Maybe if you shout and stomp your feet when you say it, I’ll agree with you that NJ is a welfare state, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

    I swear I’ll stop asking if just once, you guys can explain how New Jersey is so different than the rest of the country.

    Which of the 50 is the bastion of libertarian idealism and rugged individualism that you find acceptable? If they all suck, why single out NJ?

    Also, the last time I looked no one was stopping you from fighting back against the great evil you see consuming the state.

    I mean, clearly Pesche, a bright guy like you should be able to dispel the cloud of confusion that envelopes your fellow citizen’s minds and get them to join you in straightening this mess out. Last time I checked, that’s the way the system worked.

    I swear I don’t want to be this nasty, but the constant bleating of these poor oppressed souls is driving me nuts.

  137. Hobokenite says:

    “Blackstone was reportedly advising the fund on how to prevent a total collapse.”

    I see that worked well.

  138. Doyle says:

    “I swear I don’t want to be this nasty”

    Are you sure? As a casual observer it seems like you really enjoy it. Post #120 is Exhibit A.

    Back to lurking…

  139. James Bednar says:

    Experian press release via Yahoo:

    Experian Subprime Lending Study Shows Consumers Are More Likely to Pay Bankcard Debt Before Mortgage Debt

    According to the latest Experian study on the subprime lending market, subprime consumers — those with an Experian credit score of 620 or lower — are more likely to be 30 days or more late on their mortgage payments than on their unsecured bankcard obligations. As consumers have historically paid mortgage debt over bankcard debt, this finding represents a significant departure from conventional behavior.

  140. chicagotroll says:

    afe Says:
    June 20th, 2007 at 1:52 pm
    c-troll, Also as a wife, if my husband absolutely HAD to work or he really enjoyed what he was doing and chose to work that hard, then I think I would rather spend some of that “excess” on fancy vacations, eating out, or buying comforts for the hubby that makes his life a bit less hectic/stressful. just my .02 afe

    afe: ever heard of “married for money” or “trophy wife”?

    some husbands are not wanted at home; some husbands wouldn’t want to be at home

  141. chicagotroll says:

    excuse me: or the reverse….I don’t want to sound sexist

  142. RentinginNJ says:

    That’s interesting:

    Since they didn’t offer a reason, I’ll throw out 3 theories:

    1 – They don’t want to lose access to credit cards. They fear by not paying CC debt, their only source of quick and easy money will be cut off. They are already in the house and it’s a lot harder to foreclose on someone that it is to cancel their CC.

    2 – Their mortgage payment has readjusted and is so big, that they can’t pay in full, but they can pay the CC bill. So, they figure it’s better to be in trouble with one lender than 2.

    3 – The mortgage is too big to handle and they are now underwater. They can’t pay the mortgage, have no hope of refinancing & are underwater and unable to sell. So, they might as well live rent free and at least keep their other finances in order until they get foreclosed on.

    4 – They are waiting for a bailout.

  143. Jill says:

    The Dodge Dart was the best damn car ever made for reliability. I had a 1972 Dart that was totaled when I was rear-ended in 1980 by a kid changing radio stations. Every now and then I still see one on the road and I get wistful.

    Re: young people and housing. I don’t think there are many young people looking for houses with “character.” The ones I talk to want the granite countertop and the great room and high ceilings and no trees. There are exceptions like these couples, but I think they are just that — the exception.

    I wonder, too, what’s going to happen to the kids today who are growing up in the McMansions and getting Lexuses as reward for a good report card when they have to earn a living and won’t be making the money to support the lifestyle they grew up with right out of the gate.

  144. James Bednar says:

    As consumers have historically paid mortgage debt over bankcard debt, this finding represents a significant departure from conventional behavior.

    So let me get this straight. A subprime borrower would rather risk losing their home than stop spending?

    jb

  145. 2010 Buyer FKA 2008 says:

    #142

    As silly as it sounds, there are some borrowers who simply pay who ever calls them first. Credit card collectors make mortgage collector’s look like idiots!!!

  146. lurkerA says:

    # 146 – my parents had a 1971 dodge dart and drove it well into the 80s. i haven’t seen one on the road in ages, though.

  147. 2010 Buyer FKA 2008 says:

    Clearly mortgage fraud and how some of these borrowers got a loan in the first place.

    http://verifyemployment.net/

  148. James Bednar says:

    From CNBC:

    JP Morgan Holding Off On Selling Further Bear Stearns Hedge Fund Assets: CNBC’s Gasparino

  149. john says:

    Re 137 Hey Wall st is a lot of work, but I am providing for my wife and allowing her to stay home full time and saving up for three sets of college tuition, and weddings and trying to fund a retirement for two people. I am 100% for two spouses working if both have great careers and both are ok with having the kids in day care. My wife hated her job and wanted to raise our kids and I can’t imagine taking an easier less paying job just to force my wife back to work and to shove my kids in daycare. However, in todays sky high priced houses if a man or a women wants to do what I am doing they can’t be a teacher, cop or fireman. He needs to get into finance or consulting and work some long hours and bring home 200K+ a year which is just enough to buy a plain jane split and a decent american car now and then while still putting money in the bank each month.

  150. RentinginNJ says:

    As consumers have historically paid mortgage debt over bankcard debt, this finding represents a significant departure from conventional behavior.

    So let me get this straight. A subprime borrower would rather risk losing their home than stop spending?

    I could see this in a situation where they see the keeping the house as a lost cause.

    You went stated income and were paying 50% of your income toward your mortgage, thinking that perpetual refinancing or profits from a quick sale would always be there to fall back on. Things didn’t turn out that way. Now you are underwater and your mortgage payment just readjusted 25% higher. You’re so far behind that you are putting groceries & living expenses on your credit card.

    What do you do? If you get gangrene, you amputate the infected limb to save the body. If you know your losing it anyway, you live rent free for a few months and try to keep your other affairs in order.

  151. JBJB says:

    Lindsey

    I find your defense of big governemnt nannyism, allegiance to the democrat party, and policing of this board to weed out any opposition to such idealology somewhat admirable, but in the end pathetic.

    It’s not that NJ sucks per say, but that it could be so, so much better.

    But instead we have an electorate that keeps sending the same buffons back to Trenton who have time and time again proven to be both incompetent and corrupt. I know of no other state like this. Even California eventually put an end to it. On the R side, Ohio has been historically managed in a similar way, but the people recently threw some of those bumbs out and things are starting to change.

    However, the reason this goes on in NJ is because most of said voting bloc is on the public dole, which is in turm why the only growth industry in NJ is the state payroll, it’s a self fulfilling prophecy. If you think this is good thing, or can be maintained, more power to you.

    The policy of this state is to take from the productive and give to the lazy and connected. Of course this goes on in other places at some level, but in NJ it is egregious and celebrated as a time honered tradition. And it’s obviously OK with you as long as your “party” is doing the stealing.

  152. Richie says:

    Leasing is an attractive alternative for those who want a pricier car, without having to drop down a big down-payment.

    I’ve leased 2 cars in the past; and having a $1000 payment/month for 3/4 years vs $1300/month for 5 years + a 20% downpayment made sense to me, especially since my payments were deductible (self-employed).

    You can use the down payment money on other investments, and while your car is leased, you’ll most likely be covered under the factory warranty for any problems. When lease time is up, you simply turn in the keys, buy it out, or sell it for a profit. In both leases I had, I sold the cars at a profit. In the end, whether you lease or buy , you’re still paying for the depreciation.

    If you buy a car you plan on keeping for more then 4 years, then it’s wiser to finance. It all depends on your intentions.

    …but to claim that anyone who leases has a low IQ, that would be the same as saying anyone who rents has a low IQ.. It all depends on the situation.

    And if you do decide to lease, be sure to look into alternative lease sources. You don’t have to lease from the manufacturer; chances are they will give you a very high residual and money factor. Look into other companies that provide leasing. Their money factors are usually better, and their residuals are usually lower, leaving you with an easier time to sell the car (at a profit) when lease time is up.

    -Richie

  153. Read My Lips: NO REBOUND NO HOPE 2008 Misery -Real Estate Depression says:

    Yo keep it down. The whining is getting to loud.

    LOWER YOUR PRICES CRYBABIES.

    HEHEHEHEHEHEHEHE

  154. par4156 says:

    I don’t follow the financial markets but I’m curious about a few things…

    Anyone have information on how the subprime shakeout is affecting mortgage insurance companies? Will mortgage insurance go back up relative to piggyback loans and HELOCs? How do these companies hedge against widespread claims?

    Thanks.

  155. NJGal says:

    “Hey Wall st is a lot of work, but I am providing for my wife and allowing her to stay home full time and saving up for three sets of college tuition, and weddings and trying to fund a retirement for two people.”

    As the recipient of an extravagant “daddy’s little girl” wedding, I advise you to take that wedding money and save it for your retirement, since you have to save for 2 people. It’s one day and a giant waste of money. I regret every minute of it (except the fact that I ended up married and with a great husband), and unless you are so wealthy that it doesn’t matter, a kid should feel bad for asking for such a thing from their parents.

    Offer to pay off some student loans or help with a downpayment if you really want to do something that will benefit your daughters. All these massive weddings do is benefit the self-centered attitude that takes over so many people getting married nowadays, and helps perpetuate materialism and competitiveness.

    I’m not saying don’t have something – I loved having my family all together (especially because my aunt was dying of cancer and we weren’t sure she would be around much longer; as it is mine was the only wedding for one of her grandchildren that my grandma would attend, as she died a few years later). But it doesn’t need to cost so much to give you that sense of family that makes such a day so special.

  156. Read My Lips: NO REBOUND NO HOPE 2008 Misery -Real Estate Depression says:

    “Make an offer”

    Pretty Pleeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzz….

    NO!

    Lower your grubbing price alot. Then beg nicely.

    damn it’s gotta feel good for a few of you looking to buy with solid finances.

    hehehehehehe

  157. Read My Lips: NO REBOUND NO HOPE 2008 Misery -Real Estate Depression says:

    LOWER YOUR PRICES BY INCREMENTS OF 10% THEN REPEAT PROCESS AFTER EACH PLEA FOR AN OFFER.

    BEG NICELY TOO!

    HEHEHEHEHEHEHEHE

    Damn this is a much more desperate market than 1993-1994.

    Hehehehehehehe

  158. Read My Lips: NO REBOUND NO HOPE 2008 Misery -Real Estate Depression says:

    Can you feel the panic?

    That greedy smirk is long gone now. Reality sinking in?
    Gotta sell now quickly cuz you went ahead and bought the second house. Oh my.

  159. chicagotroll says:

    PIMCO craps out again….

    Losers
    PIMCO Total Return PTTDX
    This fund was caught offside during the market’s recent sell-off, and manager Bill Gross now appears to be in the minority of managers who believe that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the second half of 2007. For the year to date, the fund has dropped 0.58% and ranks in the intermediate-bond category’s bottom quartile. We wouldn’t bet against it, though, as Gross has shown remarkable skill in guiding this fund through a variety of market environments.

  160. Read My Lips: NO REBOUND NO HOPE 2008 Misery -Real Estate Depression says:

    SLASH & BURN ASKING PRICES.

    It’s your duty.

    It’s fun buying at clearance prices.

  161. make money says:

    #105
    case in point…..there are financial advisors out there who strongly endorse leasing…why?…so clients don’t take out any assets under management….”

    Exactly my point. During this bull market 100K should have earned 20K in a year. That’s $1666.67. That pays for my S550 Benz and Gas money. While my 100K DOES NOT depreiate a single red cent.

    The point is that the opportunity cost + depreciation of the purchasing asset + interest paid to purchase this depreciating asset= a formula for renting.

    regardless of the rates of depreciation based on year and model the bottom line is that you will NEVER build equity in a car and everymonth you drive it,it losses value. PERIOD.

    I love the feeling that I can punch it at every light and enjoy/abuse the car as I don’t care how long it lasts.

    And this will continue as long as there will be someone like yourself looking to buy a three year old car that’s been abused for the past three years and is coming off warranty soon.

    I was hoping that you have an open mind I can see the big picture. I guess I was wrong.

  162. dreamtheaterr says:

    “Lower your grubbing price a lot. Then beg nicely.”

    Booyaa Bob is back in form…another classic!

  163. Stu says:

    # 164…

    When your 100K in the market drops 50% when your hedge fund implodes, I’ll still have a car worth $14,000. Yours will be worth -$50,000.

    Some of us gamble and drive fast cars. Others choose not to gamble and drive slow cars.

    Some of us know that retirement is not far away. Others will have to continue to work when their lucky streak of fast free money screeches to a halt.

  164. Read My Lips: NO REBOUND NO HOPE 2008 Misery -Real Estate Depression says:

    Can you feel the bitterness growing?

    No not you renters.

    Damn it’s only 2007 wait ’til 2008.

  165. otis wildflower says:

    #68: M6 is nice, but 2 wheels too many.

    http://www.bmwmotorcycles.com/bikes/bike.jsp?b=k1200rsport

  166. PeaceNow says:

    JBJB says: “…most of said voting bloc is on the public dole, which is in turm why the only growth industry in NJ is the state payroll, it’s a self fulfilling prophecy. If you think this is good thing, or can be maintained, more power to you.

    The policy of this state is to take from the productive and give to the lazy and connected….”

    Oh, come on. How can you even say this? In fact, I’m not sure what you’re saying in that first paragraph. That there are so many NJ public employees that they can carry elections? Or is it welfare recipients you’re referring to?

    As for the state taking from the productive and giving it to the lazy and connected…. In a state where the legislature voted to increase the sales tax instead of the income tax, which is as regressive a means of taxation as property taxes, that statement is completely inaccurate.

  167. Clotpoll says:

    Gary (62)-

    Of course, with the experience of having sold a couple of houses on your own- and your attorney (I’m picturing Joe Pesci as “My Cousin Vinnie”)- you’re much more capable of doing better on the deal than, say, someone who does approx. 120-140 deals a year (not that I’m applying for the job; you are too far gone to help).

  168. dreamtheaterr says:

    “chicagotroll Says:
    June 20th, 2007 at 3:12 pm
    PIMCO craps out again….”

    I know we disagree but as I said a few months back (I wish I could find my previous post), I like reading Bill Gross commentary but buy the Vanguard Bond index instead…. because past outperformance cannot guarantee future outperformance relative to their benchmarks.

  169. 2010 Buyer FKA 2008 says:

    The Dollar’s Doomsday Scenario

    One of the popular doomsday scenarios is that the Chinese, maybe even the Japanese, begin to dump U.S. Treasuries. This scenario has it that the dollar plummets, interest rates spike, stocks fall, recession follows. We’ve consulted several worthy experts on this scenario and found it lacking in traction…Henry Kaufman, renowned Wall Street economist, believes that “China won’t stop buying dollars, because they underpin the Chinese banking system.” Also, he points out, the demand for Treasuries is greater than the supply. …Of course there are heavyweight worriers like chairman of BlackRock. He predicted in a presentation that “dollarization will end eventually. The effect on the reversal of U.S. interest rates and credit spreads could be devastating.”

    http://www.forbes.com/2007/06/19/croesus-chronicles-china-oped-cz_rl_0620croesus.html?partner=daily_newsletter

  170. john says:

    Ha HA – I said I was saving for weddings did not way I was going to pay for them!!! I am doing what my father-in-law did let the kids front all the money and then the day of if I like the place and the future son-in-law give a big gift, if the guys a loser I will save the money for her next wedding! Same thing goes for college, if they want a real major in a real school I am paying if not they can do it themselves!!! There is no such things as free money so they better learn it sooner than later!!!!!!!

    NJGal Says:
    June 20th, 2007 at 3:01 pm

  171. john says:

    CDs at Smith Barney $1,000 Minimum and Multiple Investment Denominations – Now we have an yield curve that is higher long term!!! About time but too late for those who want to swap out of ARM into a low long term rate.

    Term APY* as of 6/19/07
    1 Month 4.80%
    2 Month 4.85%
    3 Month 4.95%
    4 Month 5.05%
    6 Month 5.15%
    7 Month 5.15%
    9 Month 5.20%
    1 Year 5.25%
    18 Month 5.30%
    2 Year 5.30%
    2.5 Year 5.30%
    3 Year 5.30%
    4 Year 5.35%
    5 Year 5.40%
    7 Year 5.50%

  172. pesche says:

    all i know is the numbers don’t lie.

    companies are leaving the state
    families are leaving

    taxes are increasing

    they can’t lock the pols up fast enough
    because they are stealing.

    and to boot: state and muni payrolls are
    the ones growing.

    Now why: Because the pols pander to the
    blacks and hispanics in NJ.

    That’s a fact . Ask Corzine he can tell
    you. Ask Sharp James,Ask Doug Palmer
    they all know where the bread is buttered.

    NJ is a welfare state.

  173. gary says:

    #170,

    No, my cousin is more like Judge Judy. And since you do so many deals (is that what you people call it?), I’m sure losing one black sheep like myself is not going to tarnish your annual record of victims fleeced.

  174. par4156 says:

    Pesche,
    No fear. When you’re ready to leave NJ there’s a spot waiting for you near the Earth’s core. Liven up…

  175. NJGal says:

    “I said I was saving for weddings did not way I was going to pay for them!!!”

    Ha! If you like the guy. That rules.

  176. rhymingrealtor says:

    ……As consumers have historically paid mortgage debt over bankcard debt, this finding represents a significant departure from conventional behavior……….

    Having been there, I would say yes because you can pay so many bills if you just don’t pay that one (1) logical? but one call vs. 10 calls ? thats the reasoning,however flawed it may be.

    KL

  177. scribe says:

    The auction of Bear’s CDOs …

    When it’s so widely known that a huge amount of these securities is hitting the market because of a portfolio liquidation – a firesale – who would buy them and why? Wouldn’t traders rather sit back and wait and see where the dust settles?

    What if the auction fails?

  178. James Bednar says:

    all i know is the numbers don’t lie.

    companies are leaving the state
    families are leaving

    taxes are increasing

    they can’t lock the pols up fast enough
    because they are stealing.

    Almost lyrical in construction…

  179. Jill says:

    Applause for NJGal #158!

    In my experience, the happiness of the marriage is inversely proportional to the size of/amount spent on the wedding.

    If a couple (and it’s usually the bride) is bound and determined to be “princess for a day” to the tune of $50-$100K, I think someone needs to re-evaluate their priorities. A wedding is a day — and then real life sets in.

    Granted, engagements and weddings in this country are absurd — I was 31 years old, I’d been living with the guy for 2 years, I had a little ruby ring from Fortunoff’s, but you’d thought I had done something wonderful.

    We had brunch for 16 close family and friends at my mother’s house, a barbecue for OUR friends after we got back from our honeymoon, and 23 years later not only are we still married, but the wedding photos (which were taken by a friend, not a pro) are off in an album, never looked at.

    I can’t imagine why anyone wants to put themselves through the hassle of a big wedding just to wear a big-ass ugly ol’ white dress for an afternoon in the blistering heat — or pouring down rain.

    Princess Di had a “fairy tale wedding.” Where the heck did it get HER?

  180. Rob says:

    “I wonder, too, what’s going to happen to the kids today who are growing up in the McMansions and getting Lexuses”

    The government will start putting Prozac in the water.

    PeaceNow, check out the percentage of people who have their snoot in the trough one way or another (employed or on benefits); it’s a large number. Add that to the true-believers and you end up with a permanent majority in favor of greater and greater government spending. Those arguing for new taxes always have the wind at their back. Three wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner.

  181. James Bednar says:

    Nothing but conspicuous (invidious, really) consumption and the “show-off society”.

    jb

  182. Clotpoll says:

    gary (176)-

    Avoiding people like you is not losing. It is winning. Even the most novice of agents learns early on to identify the “been there, done that/smarter than you/can do your job better than you” personality type. I am sure you demonstrate the “tell’ as strongly in person as you do on the page.

    It also frees up my time to help more people who have the ability to understand that I can actually help them.

    What dopes they must be…they come back to me every few years and tell their friends and family to work with me, too.

  183. Bloodbath in Winter 2007 says:

    Swear i’ve been using this name since Monday …

    how is it that a couple making roughly $200k a year can’t afford anything reasonable in NNJ?

    We refuse to put ourselves in a risky spot by reaching for a house that’s too expensive … and we fully expect to be down to 1 salary for a few years when we have kids in 3-5.

    It’s criminal what some of these sellers are charging. The one saving grace is that a) 95% of the folks looking to cash out won’t be able to without lowering their prices, b) those who HAVE to sell are dropping the price about 8-10k a month.

  184. dreamtheaterr says:

    make money Says:
    June 20th, 2007 at 3:15 pm

    Exactly my point. During this bull market 100K should have earned 20K in a year. That’s $1666.67. That pays for my S550 Benz and Gas money. While my 100K DOES NOT depreiate a single red cent.

    And when the bear hits?

  185. gary says:

    #185,

    Too bad a “financial professional” like yourself will never know if I demonstrate the “tell” in person or not. :)

  186. pigpen says:

    #175 pesche:
    all i know is the numbers don’t lie.

    Uh, you didn’t put a single number in your post…

  187. pesche says:

    read the papers,, and not the post. oh,
    sorry thats the one you have delivered.

  188. Lindsey says:

    Re post 154:

    JBJB,

    While you have twice the initials as our host, you seem to have less than 1/2 the brains (probably not even that much, JB seems like a pretty bright guy).

    Amazingly, you managed to “respond” but couldn’t manage to answer the question of what happens here that doesn’t happen elsewhere. Although you did manage to say you “know of no other state like this.”

    I’m left with the distinct impression that you simply don’t know much of anything.

    For 10 of the last 15 years Trenton has been controlled by Republicans not Democrats, but why would you know or acknowledge that?

    If you don’t even know who is in Trenton, how can you possibly expect to know what is going on there?

    I don’t care if people disagree with me, I actually enjoy it. I have no problem questioning my own beliefs, but when someone disagrees with me, I expect them to be able to tell me why, not just keep saying “Democrats bad,” “Unions bad,” “New Jersey sucks.”

    FTR, I’m not a Democrat, (though I’m thinking pretty seriously about joining) but that matters less than your shoe size.

    There’s a lot of good discussion on RE here, and occasionally, good discussion on other topics as well.

    If my asking you questions makes you uncomfortable about your ignorance, you might want to consider other ways of spending your time.

    Maybe you could check around on the internet for leases of cool cars, I understand that’s a subject that interests you.

  189. pesche says:

    or look under car leasing for the espolades
    with the bling.

  190. BC Bob says:

    “And when the bear hits?”

    Dream,

    You dare use the B word?

    Whether it’s a blackbox or Joe 6, their world is priced for perfection; flat/rising prices, low rates and benign conditions. Now throw a monkey-wrench into this scenario; falling prices, rising rates and volatility. Damn bells and whistles going off all over. Unfortunately, the majority still don’t/can’t hear.

  191. make money says:

    Exactly my point. During this bull market 100K should have earned 20K in a year. That’s $1666.67. That pays for my S550 Benz and Gas money. While my 100K DOES NOT depreiate a single red cent.

    And when the bear hits?

    Then you get 5% in savings or CD. Stocks over the past decade have performed around 10%. Since here seem to be educated “financial proffesionals” you should at least double the average guy.

    Listen I have been beating a dead horse here. The majority of New car sales are through a lease and no one here things it’s a good idea. Then maybe you guys are smarter and better then everyone else.

    What do I know I’m retired.

  192. Jamey says:

    Dreamtheater (187): MakeMoney is a fraud. Don’t waste your time.

    On the Internet, every man’s a hot stud/Wall St. tyro; every woman’s a blond bombshell/MBA/aerobics teacher, and everybody drives cars nicer than yours. My gut feeling is that MakeMoney, at various times, is all of the above…

  193. Lindsey says:

    Re post 141,

    Okay, I admit it, but only sometimes.

  194. pesche says:

    the facts are that in the auto business
    they know the only way they can sell
    a hi line car is with leasing.

    what moron would pay the prices of this
    high priced juke.

    Why do you think Ford is unloading
    the premier division.(jag,volvo,land rover)
    overpriced junk.

    ford has owned jag since 89. they have
    never made a cent with it. same with rover.

    they will have to pay someone to take it
    off their hands. same thing benz is
    doing with the chrysler group.

    leasing is the right thing to do if
    you know how to do it. most people don’t

  195. James Bednar says:

    Then you get 5% in savings or CD. Stocks over the past decade have performed around 10%. Since here seem to be educated “financial proffesionals” you should at least double the average guy.

    Why do you assume that those who are bearish are not investors? Those without positions are neither bearish nor bullish, they are simply not investors.

    jb

  196. dreamtheaterr says:

    “The majority of New car sales are through a lease”

    What’s your source? Last time I checked, it’s more like 20% of new cars are leased.

  197. BC Bob says:

    “What do I know I’m retired.”

    Make,

    At least the Yankees are starting to play a little better.

  198. pesche says:

    most hi line cars are leased. read
    auto new. (sub.required)or google on
    hi line leasing.

    its the only way they sell the junk.

  199. make money says:

    BC, #193

    You know that I don’t relly on the Financial Markets and have kept the money in money markets and 6 month CD’s. I have one 6 Family house that I dedicate the positive monthly cash flow for my cars, gas and insurance.

    It’s the 6 renters in Greenpoint that give me the money so that I can give it to Ray who in turn gives me the cars.

    Try throughing a wrench with on that one!!!

    Actually I have my eye on a Bentley next year after I give back the S550, I guess I’ll have to raise the rents. Sorry.

    I’ll tell you a funny thing, which is I have to go to Hertz and rent a compact car when I make my rounds on the first and second of each month.

    I wish they had a honda civic.

  200. BC Bob says:

    “I’ll gladly drop my draws”

    JB[198],

    A single malt, fine. However, please wear suspenders.

  201. James Bednar says:

    Snipped those lines out, my draws are my own business.. :)

    jb

  202. BC Bob says:

    “Actually I have my eye on a Bentley next year after I give back the S550, I guess I’ll have to raise the rents. Sorry.”

    Make,

    Don’t take it out on the renters. Just scalp your tickets.

  203. pesche says:

    This hedge fund blowup , not going to
    help us.

    could be an ugly late summer for north
    jersey housing.

    JB : whats you take

  204. john says:

    re 202 you sound like Joe Pesci’s father in the move “the super” who in his dying breath tells him eventhing he needs to know about RE.

    Father: Son I am going to tell you everything you need to know about Real Estate
    Son: I know rule number one follow the three d’s only buy when there is divorce, dispair or death.
    Father: Good now what do you do once you get the rental property?
    Son: Absolutely F##king Nothing
    Father: You now know everything you need to know about real estate

  205. BC Bob says:

    “but if you didn’t ride the biggest wave in US history then you’re not that smart now are you?”

    Make,

    Many have been along for the ride. Some just decided to step aside before the wave crashes.

  206. James Bednar says:

    Anyone know if Merrill went through with the 4pm auction?

    jb

  207. ithink_ithink says:

    209. Sorry, I don’t know. What stopped JP?

  208. make money says:

    My problem is that I’m retired and not making any moves and it’s killing me.

    I loved the feeling when I closed on a peace of property and got a check for 150K or more. It’s a great feeling. Making money that is. It makes you feel invincible. It makes me feel like superman.

    Now I have to memorize historical styles of interior design. Design furniture and color application. It sucks.

    Make Money does not know how to make money anymore. I’m sort of forced into retirement.

    That’s the truth.

  209. James Bednar says:

    It appears that Merrill didn’t back down.

    Merrill selling assets of Bear Stearns hedge funds

    Merrill Lynch & Co. is selling roughly $850 million of assets from two Bear Stearns hedge funds that have been battered by turmoil in the subprime mortgage market, a person familiar with the situation said Wednesday.

    The auction by Merrill, one of several investment banks that lent money to the funds, started at about 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday. The assets for sale include mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations and credit default swaps, the person added.

  210. BC Bob says:

    “Investors looking for signs of a crack in the credit markets are turning their attention to a corner of the debt market that’s been feeding the leveraged buyout frenzy.”

    “What all of this will show — and it will show more as CLOs become more popular — is that risk management has not been very well practiced,” said billionaire financier Wilbur Ross, founder of private equity firm WL Ross & Co. “That’s going to hurt a lot of people, and will ultimately explode the bubble.”

    “Upcoming debt sales may prove the tipping point for market sentiment. Canceled deals or a lack of buyers could puncture investor confidence, pushing record low default rates higher.”

    “The end result would be a swift reaction by CDOs, CLOs and hedge funds, which would lead to the long-awaited drying up of credit.”

    “You’re close to the peak of the cycle,” said Anton Schutz, a portfolio manager at Mendon Capital, which focuses on financial firms.”

    http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN1864634020070619

  211. pesche says:

    jpmorgan cancelled their auction

  212. James Bednar says:

    From the WSJ:

    Bear Stearns Auction Results
    May Take Time to Discern
    By ANUSHA SHRIVASTAVA
    June 20, 2007 4:41 p.m.

    Though the sale of Bear Stearns Cos.’ hedge funds assets is reportedly underway, the results from the sale may not be clear until much later.

    Merrill Lynch & Co. began auctioning off the assets, CNBC reported, after a 4:00 p.m. EDT deadline for bids. Merrill has been circulating a list of $850 million of the mostly highly-rated complex securities used as collateral for the Bear Stearns funds. (See related story)

    But that deadline may have been difficult or impossible to meet, according to Mark Adelson, managing director of fixed income research at Nomura Securities.

    That’s because the securities — mostly collateralized debt obligations — on the auction block are extremely complicated, and it will take investors some time to assign what they believe is a fair value to these assets.

    “At least a third of what is being shown is pretty esoteric stuff,” said Mr. Adelson. The bulk of collateral appearing on the bid lists are CDOs that are backed by a pool of mortgage bonds, and CDO squareds, which are CDOs of CDOs, similar in concept to a fund of funds, market participants said.

    “CDO squareds are complicated things, and even the smartest guys can’t figure out what to bid on them in one day,” Mr. Adelson said. And CDOs “aren’t Treasurys that you can sell them immediately,” he added.

    What will happen, he said, is that the sale will take longer than initially anticipated, or else, only “poor bids” will come in at first. “There will be more purposeful selling” from Merrill later on, he said.

  213. john says:

    Maui home prices fall from 2006
    Pacific Business News (Honolulu) – 2:58 PM HAST Tuesday, June 19, 2007
    Print this Article Email this Article Reprints RSS Feeds Most Viewed Most Emailed
    Maui home prices remained virtually unchanged last month compared to April, but they declined when compared to last May.

    The median price of a single-family home in Maui County in May was $650,150, down 11 percent from $729,000 in May 2006. The median price of a condo last month was $531,325, also an 11 percent decline from May of last year, according to the Realtors Association of Maui.

    The May figures were based on the sale of 96 homes, up from 87 homes sold during May 2006, and 109 condos sold, down from 137 units sold during the same month last year.

    The decline in price can be attributed partly to an adjustment in the median prices of single-family homes and condominiums in Maui County for the past eight months, said Terry Tolman, chief staff executive of the Realtors association.

    The Realtors Association of Maui reclassified two projects in Wailea from single-family to condo, shifting some $111.6 million in sales from October to May.

    As a result, the median price of a single-family home for April was adjusted to $650,000, from the previously reported price of $690,000. The median price of a condo for April, however, rose to $493,500 from the previously reported price of $465,000.

  214. LarryB says:

    Make (#211),

    That is the saddest thing I’ve heard in a long time. I’m confident the new features of the ’08 SL550 will make it all better though. For at least 5 minutes.

    Perhaps you can run for office. You’ve got a lot of fans here already.

  215. BC Bob says:

    “The true cost of owning a home
    Your mortgage payments are only a fraction of what you’ll pay out after you become a homeowner. The total? For this writer, $43,555 in four years, not counting house payments.”

    By Cameron Huddleston, Kiplinger.com

    http://realestate.msn.com/buying/Article_kip.aspx?cp-documentid=4980274&gt1=10130

  216. chicagotroll says:

    make money Says:
    June 20th, 2007 at 3:15 pm
    #105
    The point is that the opportunity cost + depreciation of the purchasing asset + interest paid to purchase this depreciating asset= a formula for renting.

    make manure: I guess when your modus operandi is to abuse the good faith of other people….yes renting/leasing makes sense……..I guess we can view you as the termite of the housing boom…..you like that one?

  217. Donald says:

    Everyone go to newportnj.com

    Watch the 3 funny ads

  218. James Bednar says:

    I’m very interested to see how the Koolhaas project, 111 First, works out. The architecture seems to be getting a very mixed reception.

    jb

  219. Richard says:

    >>And while we could probably squeak into one of the “premier” towns in a POS cape and be in house debt, we are choosing to buy a POS cape in a less desirable town with lower taxes so we can continue to invest & save.

    there’s a flip side to every decision. if the worm turns like the RE bubble believers say then you’ll get hammered far worse than more premier areas. in the end you get what you pay for.

  220. Richard says:

    >>How did you fall for a 2-year-old car with 9K miles?

    a couple of years ago i bought a 3 year old car with 12k miles on it. it was driven by a 60’s something man who only did local shopping. car ran like a new one. i still have it and it’s needed 0 repairs and has low miles comparatively speaking and i paid 60% of the newer model. seems smart to me.

  221. Hobokenite says:

    How’s that? If your million dollar home goes down 10%, that’s $100,000. If a $500,000 goes down 10%, that’s only $50,000.

    Or is your theory that your million dollar home will only go down 5%?

  222. Donald says:

    Not true Richard. Contrary to popular belief, everyone is getting hurt… those in top notch towns and those in less desirebale ones.

    Home Prices Fall in Rich New York Suburbs Once Immune to Slump

    By Bob Ivry

    May 9 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. housing slump has hit New York City’s richest suburbs.

    The average price in Westport, Connecticut, home of chief executive officers Herbert Allison of TIAA-CREF and Jeffrey Kindler of Pfizer Inc., and actor Paul Newman, fell 8.2 percent to $1.56 million in the first four months of 2007 from the same period last year, according to multiple listing service data. In Chappaqua, New York, where Bill and Hillary Clinton live, properties sit on the market an average of seven months before they sell, up from five months a year ago.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&refer=home&sid=aHBopkXhEA24

  223. t c m says:

    #225 –

    “How’s that? If your million dollar home goes down 10%, that’s $100,000. If a $500,000 goes down 10%, that’s only $50,000.

    Or is your theory that your million dollar home will only go down 5%?”

    I don’t think it’s that million dollar houses fall less than $500,000 houses, but generally speaking, houses in less desirable towns fall harder than those in more desirable towns.

  224. justbought says:

    Not to add to the lease vs buy but went through this a couple of months ago. We needed a new car with 7 seats and wanted to buy for cash. Negotiated the price and asked about leasing – 3 different dealers. The quoted money factor was equivalent to 0.5% apr (not a typo) per year via the financing sub of the manufacturer. Decided to go with a lease.

    Cons: docs and some other extra fee ~$600. Pros: I only paid tax on the downpayment and will earn ~5.0% on money still in my money market fund. Plus if i dont like the car its gone in 3 yrs. If I like it or if it depreciates by less than residual there’s a fixed rate purchase option.

    I figure leasing saved ~$4-5k pre-tax over 3 yrs.

  225. 3b (former bergbubbleburst) says:

    #120 Lindsey I can do better than that. I have sitting in my drive way, (in my rented house), a 1991 Ford Escort Pony, no air conditioning, no power any ting (including steering), and not even a radio.21k miles!!!!

  226. Pat says:

    21k? No way.

    I loved my Ford Escort. Almost as much as my Dad’s Dodge Dart. But not as much as my ’74 Opel Manta. In honor of Make, I’ll admit that it made me feel like..like.. like Fred Flintstone every time I jumped in and took off. Big old holes in the floor.

    Leasing is bad news to lower pay folks who are not disciplined about savings. It sucks them right in.

  227. pigpen says:

    #223
    there’s a flip side to every decision. if the worm turns like the RE bubble believers say then you’ll get hammered far worse than more premier areas. in the end you get what you pay for.

    mmmm… possibly. Of course, one of the main things we are considering. But consider that less desirable areas (and I use that term relatively – I’m not talking about the vailsburg section of newark) did not have the extreme price inflation like the “premier” areas in the first place. Bidding wars, speculators, etc.

  228. BC Bob says:

    The same mentality inherent in leasing a car was apparent in “buying” a house with toxic financing. What’s the monthly payment? Well, not only did the asset stop appreciating, now it’s falling in value. In addition to this, rates are rising and vol has knocked the front door down. This was never entered into the equation. Hell, it was a ludicrous assumption. Even the quants failed to program this in their blackbox. Unfortunately, as resets are flooding the market, the “monthly payment” crowd can’t refinance nor sell, they are trapped. The good ole American way, what’s the monthly payment?

  229. James Bednar says:

    From Reuters:

    Merrill ends auction of Bear fund securities

    Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. has ended its auction of a series of securities from two troubled Bear Stearns hedge funds, a source familiar with the matter said.

    Not every security was sold, the source said, but Merrill is believed to have sold enough to cover its exposure to the funds. About $850 million of securities were put up for sale, and a series of derivative positions will be put up for sale on Thursday.

  230. chicagofinance says:

    justbought Says:
    June 20th, 2007 at 7:21 pm
    Not to add to the lease vs buy but went through this a couple of months ago. We needed a new car with 7 seats and wanted to buy for cash. Negotiated the price and asked about leasing – 3 different dealers. The quoted money factor was equivalent to 0.5% apr (not a typo) per year via the financing sub of the manufacturer. Decided to go with a lease.

    Cons: docs and some other extra fee ~$600. Pros: I only paid tax on the downpayment and will earn ~5.0% on money still in my money market fund. Plus if i dont like the car its gone in 3 yrs. If I like it or if it depreciates by less than residual there’s a fixed rate purchase option.

    I figure leasing saved ~$4-5k pre-tax over 3 yrs.

    just bought: If you know finance, then I won’t insult you by saying that you are wrong. However, something – NO SMELL GOOD – including “Pros: I only paid tax on the downpayment” which is know in the alley as TAX EVASION….I would guess you left money on the table at a minimum…..

  231. bruiser says:

    makemoney,

    True players drive Maybachs.

    Actually, true players have other people drive their Maybach for them. You just want the proles to believe you are player as you drive your own Bentley around town.

  232. justbought says:

    234 – in a auto lease in nj you pay sales tax only on cap reduction and there is a tax embedded in each monthly pmt. all legit done via a dealer. in a purchase all sales tax is paid upfront and you dont recover that if you sell your car a couple of yrs down the road.

    i do know finance and trust me i am sure of every number that went into the lease pmt calculation. besides i ran an auction between three dealers on this just to be sure.

  233. Home Seller says:

    Financially, there’s no argument. Buying is cheaper than leasing. If its convienence your after and money is no object, of course leasing makes sense.

    Its amazing how money burns a hole in peoples pockets just to have a brandy new car….amazing. Actually, I shouldn’t be surprised the way society is so materialistic today. God forbid being caught dead with a model earlier than ’04..LOL

  234. James Bednar says:

    Last bit on this tonite, I promise. From Reuters:

    Merrill sells off assets from Bear hedge funds

    The impact of Merrill’s sale of the assets was not clear late Wednesday, but could be substantial. Many traders had feared that the auction could create big price reductions in a corner of the bond market known as the collateralized debt obligation sector, where bonds trade infrequently.

    Collateralized debt obligations are essentially bonds that are portfolios of other bonds or loans, and have provided crucial financing to areas including subprime lending and leveraged buyouts.

    If the prices of those securities broadly fall, Wall Street firms, hedge funds and other investors could have to take losses on their portfolios of CDOs, cutting into profits. Meanwhile, leveraged buyout funds that depend on the CDO market to help provide financing for takeovers could have more trouble completing deals.

    “The implications of that extend well outside the market into the real economy, as it would reduce liquidity for mortgages,” said Josh Rosner, managing director of Graham Fisher & Co. in New York. “It could create a broader sell-off.”

  235. Donald says:

    My goodness. Stop it with the car leasing vs. buying. It’s really getting annoying. This is a real estate site.

  236. BC Bob says:

    “Last bit on this tonite, I promise.”

    JB,

    Keep that coming. However, let’s give last rites to lease vs buy.

  237. justbought says:

    #238 – very shallow article. CDO’s, LBOs, subprime all mixed together. And who has ever heard of Graham Fisher.. Supply/demand has to drive price down in a massive liquidation, but this has nothing to do with fundamental values. I bet it will emerge in a month that goldman bought the whole portfolio wholesale and made a killing on it within a month. Anyone remeber LTCM, Amaranth?

  238. Home Seller says:

    #239

    Donald, there are infrequent OT discussions that happen on this website. Nothing wrong discussing Leasing vs. buying on a Monday evening. If you don’t like it, skip over the posts like I do if I’m not interested. I don’t tell people not to talk about a certain topic.

  239. Pat says:

    Home Seller…maybe they think it’s not O.K. cause it’s Wednesday??? ;)

  240. dreamtheaterr says:

    #239, Donald, lets talk about diapers. Plenty of folks upside down on their houses might need them soon.

  241. Hobokenite says:

    For those still awake at this hour:

    “Great Price Improvement”

    http://www.libertyrealestate.com/public/listingSingle.do?listing.listingID=567470

  242. UnRealtor says:

    Make Money #202 writes:

    “I’ll tell you a funny thing, which is I have to go to Hertz and rent a compact car when I make my rounds on the first and second of each month.”

    You need to do it Realtor Style, and roll up in a $200K Bentley to take suckers around to buy houses:

    http://tlc.discovery.com/fansites/milliondollaragents/milliondollaragents.html

  243. Contractor Bill says:

    More good news for those waiting on the sidelines JB. Tomorrow’s news should be interesting.

    Is there any way to track month-to-month sales on existing homes in any given town in NNJ without a subscription to GSMLS?

    And what’s the deal with listings that have expired and then relisted? Do those who subscribe to a listing service know truth as to how long these properties have been on the market or is this information some obscured?

  244. Contractor Bill says:

    Does anyone have any experience with townships in morris or passaic that allow for conversion of single family homes into multifamily that are located within multifamily zones?

  245. Pat says:

    Clot, KL, etc. : What’s going on if listing status is “Active, but Contingent” for in excess of 90 days?

  246. justbought says:

    Just ran a report 2007 YTD vs 2006 YTD for the town where i bought. Very interesting.

    Inventory is up ~25+%. But houses under contract and sold also up YoY. Prices flat to higher -this may have to do with the sample. DOM much higher.

    So an individual house tougher to sell, but overall sales not dropping much. No wonder realtors don’t complain too much.

    Some observations looking at the market for a while – less than perfect homes sitting for long times. Prices get reduced after a while. But nice homes in good/great spots flying off in matter of days at asking or more.

  247. SAS says:

    I can’t wait to see how this bond market shakes out…

    SAS

  248. SAS says:

    Alot of people are on the banker’s treadmill.

    SAS

  249. Contractor Bill says:

    justbought are you a realtor using a MLS?

  250. Clotpoll says:

    Pat (250)-

    Somebody’s waiting for somebody else to get a house sold in order to waive that contingency and move forward. In the meantime, a non-contingent buyer can swoop in and take the house, as it’s still active and available for sale.

    Lot of that going on the past few months.

  251. justbought says:

    Not a realtor. Maybe i will try it as a second career after i retire if the internet does not kill this entirely by then.

  252. RentinginNJ says:

    Just ran a report 2007 YTD vs 2006 YTD for the town where i bought. Very interesting.

    How high is the inventory number?

    Unless its a big town, I’m wondering in the change is statistically significant.

  253. lisoosh says:

    bruiser Says:
    True players drive Maybachs.

    I know someone with a Maybach. Union guy. Payed cash.
    When he walked into the dealership and asked to test drive it, the salesman refused telling him he couldn’t afford it.
    Lost his job of course.

  254. Lindsey says:

    Pat,

    I can’t believe you too owned an Opel Manta. Mine was purple. I loved that car. I was forced off Route 22 in a snowstorm by a truck, and it would have cost me too much to repair it.

    That car, my Gremlin and my Datsun B210 were all like children to me, I miss them even now.

    I don’t want to hear anyone badmouthing the Gremlin. That thing was awesome.

  255. Lindsey says:

    Also,

    JB, Just one of my periodic thanks for running a great site.

    I think the main page has to be one of the two or three best regional RE sites on the web, and the comment section is unrivaled.

    While you have fast and interesting discussions on economic and housing reports, I can’t imagine there’s another site on the net where you can have financial geniuses who have made millions (millions, I tell ya) explain the advantages of leasing a car over buying it.

    I must say, Chifi has shown extraordinary restraint in his dealings with this crew.

  256. john says:

    Actually according to the new Papal Driving rules showing off in an expensive leased Mercedes is also a sin so in addition to high payments you get to go to Hell!

  257. 3b says:

    3251 Did you just buy, as your name implies, and or are you are realtor. Because in the 2 towns I follow in prestigious minutes from NYC Bergen Co, Blue ribbon Schools, nothing is flying off the shelf, nothing.

    Perhaps Clot can advise us if he is “seeing houses “fly off the shelf”.

  258. NJGal says:

    “Actually, true players have other people drive their Maybach for them. You just want the proles to believe you are player as you drive your own Bentley around town.”

    My boss has a Rolls and a driver, and that really is how the true players roll. That care is sweet as they come. It’s pretty amusing to me to get dropped off at my apartment in Hoboken in a Rolls with a driver who opens the door for me.

  259. make money says:

    263 “Actually, true players have other people drive their Maybach for them. You just want the proles to believe you are player as you drive your own Bentley around town.”

    I’m not a true player. Never said I was. I’m not valued at 300+ million. Not even close to that. I don’t own a yaght or any boats for that matter. I don’t have full time maids and house help. I don’t pretend to be a big fish. Especially not here in manhattan.

    but me and my wife are retired. She actually retired 3 months after we got married. We enjoy our daughter.

    Forget about a rolls I have to drive a Seabring when I go see my supers and other tennants for the monthly rent. I can’t show up to collect rent in a Benz. When we are invited to local community ethic parties I rent a Jeep or something like that so that I can blend in the conversation and complain about gas prices. I have to act like I have a lot less than I actually do.

    I’m not a flassher or a player or a pimp you guys think i am.

    Enough said.

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