Separating real estate fact from propaganda

From Forbes:

Don’t Buy That House

The dream of owning your own home is as American as apple pie–and (supposedly) better for you. Over and over, we are told that homeownership will make you happier, healthier and wealthier. Heck, it’s even supposed to make you a better citizen.

Of course, there are times when, depending on your age, your savings and your income, buying a home can be a smart decision and an excellent way to build wealth. But is buying a home really such a universally good idea?

It’s hard to separate fact from propaganda.

Certainly, the virtues of ownership have been preached loudly and from on high. As early as the 1920s, Herbert Hoover extolled home ownership as a pillar of family life. Nearly 80 years later, President Bush reiterated the message, stating “there’s no greater American value than owning something, owning your own home and having the opportunity to do so.”

Homeownership has been touted as civic responsibility, “moral muscle” and a bulwark against communism. A 1922 pamphlet from the National Association of Real Estate Boards even promised that it would put the “MAN back in MANHOOD.” Over the years, it has been claimed that homeowners vote more, join more voluntary associations, take better care of their residences and have better-educated kids.

But to realize that America’s mania for home-buying is out of all proportion to sober reality, one needs to look no further than the current subprime lending mess. In the last decade, riskier lending practices combined with historically low interest rates and federal subsidies have encouraged a wave of low- and moderate-income households to buy homes.

Those borrowers are much worse off than before they bought. “There’s the loss of the initial investment, ruined credit ratings and the psychological trauma associated with foreclosure and being evicted,” says William Rohe, co-editor of Chasing the American Dream and a professor of urban studies at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Worse, foreclosures are often concentrated geographically, meaning that neighborhoods that were already badly off now have even more abandoned properties. Conversely, ownership can trap a family in a declining neighborhood, while renters move on more easily.

“Some research has suggested that it isn’t whether parents own or rent, but the mobility of the household,” says Rachel Drew, a research analyst at Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. In other words, it’s likely that families who stay in one place for a long time (renting or buying) are doing better by their kids than families that move often.

“All of these things we say are benefits of homeownership in the U.S. I think would also be benefits of long-term rental tenancy,” says Bourassa.

So if something in your gut–or on your bank statement–tells you that now is not the right time to buy, resist the pressure. There may be no place like home, but there’s no reason you can’t rent it.

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286 Responses to Separating real estate fact from propaganda

  1. chicagofinance says:

    WSJ
    AHEAD OF THE TAPE
    By JUSTIN LAHART
    Overseas Shifts In Treasury Piles May Help Fed
    June 27, 2007
    As Federal Reserve officials meet today and tomorrow to discuss the direction of interest rates, they ought to consider again how foreign central banks are influencing the markets.

    Prices on U.S. Treasury notes have risen in recent sessions — sending their yields lower — as skittishness over the troubles at two big Bear Stearns hedge funds sent investors scurrying for safety. But for much of the year, Treasury prices have been trending lower, pushing their yields higher. Over the past month, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has risen from 4.861% to 5.102%.

    The performance of the economy is part of the story. It appears to be absorbing the blows of a weak housing market better than expected. Market participants once thought the Fed would cut short-term interest rates sometime this year to breathe some life into the economy. With the economy holding up, they now look for the Fed to keep its target overnight-lending rate at 5.25%.

    The two-day policy-setting meeting that starts today should do little to change that view. Although the core rate of inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, has backed off recently, the Fed is concerned that low unemployment could push wages — and therefore prices — higher.

    Foreigners don’t influence short-term interest rates, but they do affect long-term interest rates.

    In the past, foreign buying of Treasurys had the Fed worried long-term interest rates were being kept artificially low. Now, foreign central banks could actually help alleviate the Fed’s inflation worries by helping to boost long-term rates.

    The teeth of recent Treasury selling, which brought the yield on the 10-year note to its highest level in five years, came in the first part of this month.

    For years, developing countries with large trade surpluses have been parking export earnings in financial markets, with the bulk going toward U.S. Treasury securities and other low-risk dollar-denominated debt. Lately, however, they’ve made incremental moves toward diversifying their holdings. Witness the stake China took in private-equity firm Blackstone Group. Some countries, such as India, have also allowed their currencies to appreciate by more against the U.S. dollar which gives them a less pressing need to buy dollar-denominated assets.

    The waning appetite for Treasury securities from central banks didn’t hit home with the bond market until this month. The amount of both Treasurys and Federal agency bonds held in custody at the New York Federal Reserve fell for two weeks in a row in the first two weeks of June. These custody holding figures are very volatile. But it was unusual to see them decline for two weeks in a row, says economist Brad Setser, especially since the central banks were opportunistic buyers in past bond-market declines.

    Since the selloff, the central banks have been buyers again, pushing their Treasury holdings back up. But the message is that they may no longer be a backstop to the Treasury market when selling intensifies. The upshot is that long-term rates will remain higher, keeping a lid on the economy, and inflation. If the Fed is worried about inflation, it might not have to lift a finger

  2. HOUSE OF CARDS says:

    Lennar Reports $244.2M 2nd-Quarter Loss
    Tuesday June 26, 6:35 pm ET
    By Adrian Sainz, AP Business Writer
    Homebuilder Lennar Reports $244.2M 2nd-Quarter Loss, Forecasts 3Q Loss
    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070626/earns_lennar.html?.v=20

    MIAMI (AP) — Lennar Corp.’s struggles may not be over any time soon, with the housing market showing no signs of recovery. The Miami-based company, one of the nation’s leading homebuilders, said Tuesday it stumbled to a second-quarter loss as inventories of unsold homes rose. The company cut prices and offered more incentives to attract skittish buyers.

    Lennar also warned that it would likely post a loss through at least the third quarter.

    “As we look to our third quarter and the remainder of 2007, we continue to see weak, and perhaps deteriorating, market conditions,” Lennar President and Chief Executive Stuart Miller said.

    For the second quarter, losses totaled $244.2 million, or $1.55 per share, versus a profit of $324.7 million, or $2 per share, in the previous year.

    Lennar took a charge of $1.33 per share for valuation adjustments and write-offs of option deposits and pre-acquisition costs.

    Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial forecast a profit of 5 cents per share. The estimates typically exclude one-time charges, but Lennar fell way short of expectations in any case.

    Quarterly revenue slid 37 percent to $2.88 billion from $4.58 billion in the prior-year period. That still beat the analyst consensus of $2.58 billion. Shares of Lennar fell $1.20, or 3.1 percent, to $37.55 Tuesday.

    Lennar’s loss reflects broader problems in the housing market, with the Commerce Department reporting Tuesday that sales of new homes fell in May for the fourth time in the past five months.

    On Monday, the National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell for a third straight month in May and the median sales price declined for a record 10th consecutive month. Inventory of unsold homes shot up to the highest level in 15 years.

    Miller said Lennar is cutting prices to sell inventory, but that has led to slimmer profit margins. Gross margins on home sales were 13.6 percent, compared with 23.7 percent in the second quarter of 2006.

    Miller said the company anticipates a third-quarter loss due to uncertain market conditions, but did not offer specific guidance. Analysts expected the company to earn 25 cents per share in the third quarter, at least before Tuesday.

    Lennar is focused on expenses, reducing construction costs and pushing sales to convert land and new home inventory into cash, Miller said. The homebuilder has cut back on housing starts by more than 50 percent year over year as it unloads inventory, Miller said.

    “Market conditions have eroded so much over the past six months that we are now focused on limiting the loss for the year,” Miller said, adding later that uncertain conditions make him “suspect that we will not know that a recovery is coming until it is upon us.”

    In the second quarter, Lennar delivered 9,568 homes, down 28 percent from last year, while new orders totaled 8,056 homes, a drop of 31 percent. Prospective buyers canceled orders at a rate of 29 percent. Lennar showed a backlog of 8,199 homes, at a value of $2.8 billion, in the second quarter.

    Michael Rehaut, a JP Morgan analyst, said that the drop in new orders and the flat cancellation rate were roughly in line with estimates, but that the charges and deterioration of gross margins was worse than expected. Rehaut maintained a neutral rating for the company in his Tuesday note.

    The average sales price of homes delivered decreased to $298,000, compared to $322,000 in the same period last year. The drop was due to higher sales incentives that averaged $43,700 per home delivered in the second quarter of 2007, compared to $24,700 per home delivered in the year-ago period.

    Banc of America analyst Daniel Oppenheim said in a note Tuesday that high supply is keeping buyers on the sidelines because they expect a further drop in prices.

    Lennar said loss on land sales totaled $108.8 million in the second quarter of 2007, including $69.4 million of valuation adjustments and $48.9 million of write-offs of deposits and pre-acquisition costs related to about 5,400 home sites under option that it does not intend to purchase.

  3. HOUSE OF CARDS says:

    New U.S. home sales slide in May
    Further evidence of a continued slump in real estate
    Updated: 11:03 a.m. ET June 26, 2007

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19436003/

    WASHINGTON – Sales of new homes fell in May for the fourth time in the past five months, providing further evidence of a continued slump in housing.

    The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that sales of new single-family homes dropped by 1.6 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 915,000 units. That followed a 12.5 percent surge in April sales, which was the biggest one-month jump in more than a decade.

    But the April increase, which analysts believe was heavily influenced by special factors such as the weather, marked the only strength this year. In every other month, sales have fallen as builders struggle to deal with the most serious downturn in housing in 16 years.

    Story continues below ↓
    ——————————————————————————–
    advertisement

    ——————————————————————————–

    The median price of a new home sold in April was $236,100, down 0.9 percent from the price a year ago. The median is the midpoint where half the homes sold for more and half for less.

    The slump in sales affected most parts of the country. Sales were down 7.3 percent in the South, where half of new homes are sold, and fell an even larger 11 percent in the Northeast. Sales were also off in the West by 1.9 percent. The only region of the country that saw an increase was the Midwest, where sales jumped by 30.8 percent.

    Home prices are expected to fall further in coming months as builders slash prices more to trim a glut of unsold homes in the face of deepening troubles in housing. The National Association of Home Builders reported last week that builder confidence has fallen to the lowest level in 16 years.

    The troubles in housing follow a prolonged boom in which sales of both new and existing homes set records for five consecutive years. That ended in 2006 as investors, who had been lured into the market by soaring home prices, began to retreat in the face of rising mortgage rates and slumping prices, especially in the once red-hot markets.

    Adding to the problems are spreading problems in mortgage lending, reflected by rising foreclosure rates as borrowers are unable to meet payments on adjustable rate loans which are now resetting at higher rates.

    The inventory of unsold homes did drop by 1.1 percent May to 536,000 units but because the sales pace slowed, the length of time it would take to deplete inventories actually rose to 7.1 months, up from 7.0 months in April.

  4. Richard says:

    article on CNNMoney on cities that have shrugged off the slowdown in housing. the top one is Seattle. does anyone have any statistics on home price appreciation and how it compares to other markets? i’ve heard they started later than others and are lagging not impervious. thanks.

    http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/070626/062207_bust_what_bust.html?.v=3&.pf=real-estate

  5. James Bednar says:

    From the Independant:

    Firm: 300 homes needed to make Lucent viable

    Give us housing or we’re busting down the old Bell Labs building.

    This was the overall message from Preferred Real Estate Investments June 19, during the developer’s community outreach meeting held at the Senior Center on Crawfords Corner Road.

    Michael O’Neill, president and CEO of Preferred, told audience members that his company needed to build at least 300 housing units on the site in order “to make the project work.”

    “This project could not be profitable on just 240 units,” O’Neill said. “That would not be profitable.”

    He added, “I just don’t believe we can make it work with all commercial.”

    O’Neill said he would keep part or all of the historic mirrored building if the township will allow him to build housing on the commercially zoned land. If not, he would tear down the structure and replace it with between 1.1 million and 1.9 million square feet of new office space. When asked, O’Neill said the vacant property now represents a tax risk to Holmdel residents.

  6. James Bednar says:

    From the Record:

    40% of towns have problem with gangs

    Roughly 40 percent of North Jersey municipalities have a significant gang presence within their communities, authorities said Tuesday.

    Statewide, Superintendent Col. Rick Fuentes said about 45 percent of police departments have reported gang activity in their jurisdictions — up from 33 percent in 2004.

    “If you’ve got a gang presence, you’ve got a gang problem,” Fuentes told 300 or so attendees at a New Jersey Gang Summit conference at Brookdale Community College in Monmouth County.

    “Many people still have no clue about the gang threat in their communities,” said Joe Viola, a retired Bergen County Sheriff’s Department detective, who spoke Tuesday about gang threats in New Jersey schools. “People just don’t want to hear about it.”

    William Oliver, bias officer for the Passaic County Prosecutor’s Office, agreed.

    “Gangs are so pervasive and mobile these days that it’s difficult for anyone to say that they’re not in their communities or schools,” he said.

    According to the 2004 state police gang report, at least 17 percent of all homicides in New Jersey involved gang members.

    Gang membership in New Jersey increased from 16,700 in 1997 to around 25,000 in 2006.

  7. SG says:

    Monmouth university’s cost of living survey basically confirms what many on this board have been saying. I doubt it will become any political issue though, and hence not much will change in coming years.

  8. James Bednar says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Government Buying Binge in U.S. Getting Noticed: John M. Berry

    Just when everyone has stopped fretting that huge current-account deficits would sink the U.S. economy, there’s a new worry: What are those nations going to do with all that money?

    The standard option, buying shorter-term U.S. Treasury securities and other government-backed paper, isn’t adequate any more. As big as the government’s debt is, it isn’t increasing fast enough.

    As Clay Lowery, acting Treasury undersecretary for international affairs, said in a June 21 speech, even if you add in all net new issues of securities by euro-region governments and the U.K., there’s still not enough. All those totaled $461 billion, he said.

    Last year, official foreign exchange reserves in China, other Asian nations and oil exporting countries, plus the increase in government-owned assets in so-called sovereign wealth funds around the world, ballooned by nearly $1.2 trillion, Lowery told a conference sponsored by the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank.

    A key concern is that governments may not have the same objectives as a private investor. They easily could pursue national goals that have nothing to do with getting a good risk- adjusted rate of return. And it isn’t clear whether the managers of the sovereign wealth funds will be subject to adequate oversight by anyone.

    Edwin M. Truman, a former senior official at both the Federal Reserve and the Treasury and now at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told the conference, “The accumulation of a vast amount of reserves and other official cross-border investments is likely to be a major source of internal and external controversy and tension going forward.”

  9. James Bednar says:

    From the Boston Globe:

    Hopes for real estate revival wilt

    Maybe next spring.

    With the key selling season for the real estate market nearing an end, the hoped-for rebound in Massachusetts home sales hasn’t materialized. Sales of single-family homes fell by as much as 9 percent in May from a year ago, accelerating from modest declines in April, according to data released yesterday.

    “There were a lot of high hopes pinned on this spring season,” said Terry Egan, editor in chief of publications at real estate data publisher Warren Group, “but these numbers tell us the longed-for recovery isn’t here yet.”

  10. James Bednar says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    Sparta man held on fraud charges

    A 53-year-old Sparta man who police say conned six real estate investors out of $270,000 is behind bars on theft charges, authorities said yesterday.

    Michael Weinberg, owner of a Morris Township-based real estate company called NJ Realty and Development, was charged with theft by deception, theft by failure to make required disposition and is suing bad checks.

    His investors were lawyers and businessmen and he promised them access to residential properties that were subject to foreclo sure or municipal tax liens. He had a Web site listing the properties in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, police said.

    In about a year’s time, Weinberg collected more than $270,000 from investors who allege they got noth ing in return, police said.

  11. James Bednar says:

    From the APP:

    Detective: More gangs in Jersey

    A detective in the State Police gang unit said Tuesday he would be surprised if results from a statewide survey on gangs showed anything else but the problem escalating in hot spots and spreading farther into the suburbs.

    Sgt. Ronald Hampton said he expected the prevalence of gangs to increase despite a surge in the amount of resources that law enforcement agencies have dedicated to eradicating the violence that gangs bring to cities and unsuspecting neighborhoods.

    But Hampton said he believes the state might soon be able to apply more pressure on gangs, considering the number of municipalities that have responded to the survey, the results of which are expected this summer.

    Nearly every New Jersey municipality has responded, up from the 70 percent response rate the State Police received in the previous gang survey, in 2004, he said.

    Hampton said he has yet to see the results but hopes to find that more officials are beginning to recognize that gangs are at least present in their towns. A stigma attached to admitting gang activity and a fear of suffering politically by doing so have discouraged town officials from responding, Hampton said.

    “You have to admit this is a problem before you can solve it,” he said.

  12. pesche22 says:

    those people you see wandering the
    streets and highways of New Jersey,more
    and more. just maybe they are illegal and
    perhaps gang members.

    Oh,but the libs will say diversity.

    and the cost for the New Jersey taxpayer?
    well that may be a story for the weekend
    edition.

    How about quality of life.

    Coming to a town near you. Gangs.Biggest
    problem for law enforcement in the state.

  13. James Bednar says:

    From CNN/Money:

    Appraisers push for real estate fraud rules

    It’s called “hitting the number” – or inflating a home’s value – and real estate appraisers who don’t do it often enough can find it hard to make a living.

    In prepared testimony Tuesday before a Senate subcommittee on mortgage industry abuses, Alan Hummel, spokesman for the Appraisal Institute said “Appraisers face pressure from various parties involved in mortgage transactions. They are told to doctor their appraisals or else never see work from those parties again.”

    Hummel blamed poor regulation of mortgage brokers and lenders, and weak or nonexistent enforcement of real estate practitioners.

    Unscrupulous mortgage brokers should be singled out for special blame, according to Mike Evans, a fellow of the American Society of Appraisers.

    “Mortgage brokers are on commission,” he said. “If the deal doesn’t go through, they don’t get paid. They don’t care about anything but making the deal.”

    And the deal can run into trouble if a buyer thinks the home is worth less than the selling price. “If the appraisal comes in below, they can’t get the deal done,” said Evans. That’s when the mortgage brokers and real estate agents may hit the warpath. “They have to go out and beat up the appraisers,” said Evans, who said he’s been threatened himself, “and find one they can twist.”

  14. James Bednar says:

    From Bloomberg:

    U.S. MBA’s Mortgage Applications Index Fell 3.9% Last Week

    Mortgage applications in the U.S. fell to a four-month low last week, signaling higher mortgage rates may be taking a toll on home buying and refinancing.

    The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of applications to buy a home or refinance an existing loan fell 3.9 percent to 618.6. The measure was the lowest since the week ended Feb. 16.

    Rising mortgage rates, falling prices and a record number of houses on the market may be scaring away prospective buyers, deepening the real-estate recession. A recovery will probably not take hold until 2008 at the earliest, economists said.

    The increase in lending rates “should depress home sales in the coming months,” Abiel Reinhart, an economist at JPMorgan Chase Corp. in New York, said before the report. “Home sales may well not have bottomed yet.”

    The mortgage bankers’ purchase index fell 4.9 percent, the biggest decline since January, to 428.9 from 450.9.

    The refinancing index dropped 2.5 percent, to 1731.6, the lowest level so far this year, from 1776.8. The share of applications for refinancing rose to 38.7 percent, from 38 percent a week earlier.

  15. James Bednar says:

    From Reuters:

    Impac says will not declare 2nd-quarter dividend

    Impac Mortgage Holdings Inc., a real estate investment trust, said on Tuesday that its board has elected not to declare a second quarter dividend on its common shares.

    The company, which specializes in mortgages whose risk levels rank between prime and subprime loans, said that due to its decision to accelerate the liquidation of its real estate owned (REO) portfolio through a new auction process, it is experiencing higher-than-expected losses.

    “In light of increased delinquencies, REO and loan losses, we believe it is prudent to aggressively liquidate REOs in this market,” said Joseph R. Tomkinson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, in a statement.

  16. James Bednar says:

    Interesting anecdote. The Countrywide REO website has added the ability to search by “City” in addition to “State” (it used to be a state-only listing), as well as adding pagination.

    jb

  17. James Bednar says:

    Here is some insight into why they might have made those changes:

    http://countrywide-foreclosures.blogspot.com/2007/06/9214-reos-offered-for-sale-on.html

    jb

  18. Pat says:

    Propaganda?

    http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070625/NEWS/706250330/-1/BIZ

    “Law says developers must add affordable units
    Orange County’s first to be built in Warwick”

  19. Pat says:

    Is there a place out there that has a full listing of REO links?

  20. Pat says:

    Thank you, J.B.

  21. Ramesh says:

    Thanks a lot BC Bob, James Bednar, Nj Patient and Clotpoll.

    Termite inspection was done and termites were found.

    Sellers agreed to fix the termites.

    Sellers have not brought termite certificate to closing.
    My attorney contacted sellers attorney and we are waiting for their response.

  22. BC Bob says:

    Ramesh,

    Good for you. Why not tell the seller that you will hire the firm that does the work. Skeptical? No. I would just like to be in control of the situation.

  23. BC Bob says:

    bear,

    “Toggle Notes”

    Coupon payments can be made with additional debt rather than cash. Everybody is loading the boat.

  24. Drew says:

    any one from sparta? I’ve lived in Bergen County for 30 years, looking for more open space, heard sparta is perfect. 45 miles to NYC and very open. Haven’t driven through yet, but I have looked online at homes and you get more for your money, compared to northern Bergen coun.

  25. thatbigwindow says:

    Re: post # 26, bike wheel release:

    There are many people in NJ and a few on this board that believe in MORE MORE MORE MORE protective legislation. Save me, Peoples Republic of NJ!! Save me from myself!!

  26. New in Town says:

    re 26
    Guess how I got lots of stainless steel in my left arm? The QR on my rear wheel slipped out when I stood up on a hill. My elbow made a hole in the pavement after a very short loop over the front wheel.

    I oppose this kind of mommy state garbage, but do think a safety device would be a smart addition to a bike and could be sold as such. The weight addition would be near zero.

  27. James Bednar says:

    I’m going to start lobbying for speed-limiting devices on automobiles. There is no good reason that cars should drive any faster than 65 miles an hour in this state.

    Think of all the accidents we can prevent! Think of all the lives that will be saved!
    Car insurance premiums will plummet!
    We’ll all be saved!

    jb

  28. James Bednar says:

    Guess how I got lots of stainless steel in my left arm? The QR on my rear wheel slipped out when I stood up on a hill. My elbow made a hole in the pavement after a very short loop over the front wheel.

    A few years back I had a terrible crash that left me unconsious in the middle of the road. I was trucking along at near 30mph when I broke my chain. I was partially out of saddle and when the chain let loose, my torso/chest went down into the bars and my foot came out of the pedal (and hit the street). Last thing I remember was the pedal catching me in the calf. Woke up a few minutes later surrounded by a crowd of people. I could hardly breath. Thought I broke my ribs/sternum. I was covered in blood. I had managed to road rash my face, arms, palms, elbows, knees. I was told that I skidded at least 20 feet across the asphalt. I’ve still got the stainless steel watch to prove it. I managed to grind off half the bezel and band in the crash.

    I don’t care why the chain broke. It could have been a manufacturing defect, it could have been a lack of maintenance, it could have been improper service.

    It doesn’t matter, it was a mechanical failure. I’m not going to fault anyone for that. But most importantly, I don’t want the legislature to save me from it.

    I’m all for holding the big box retailers responsible though. Don’t get me wrong. I’ve seen more than my fair share of kids bikes put together so poorly that they were one bolt away from being a death trap. Brakes are almost always installed incorrectly. Headsets loose to the point where you could pull the bars off should the top-cap come off. Not to mention quick releases so loose that I could pull the wheels off by hand. I do support this legislation as it applies to children’s bicycles, as I don’t believe QR skewers have any reason to be on a child’s bicycle.

    Most forks already have QR safety devices installed, they are called “Lawyers Lips”. Appropriately named.

    jb

  29. Rich In NNJ says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Capital equipment orders drop 3%

    Orders for durable goods fall 2.8% on broad-based weakness

    Orders for U.S.-made investment goods dropped 3% in May, ending a brief rebound in businesses’ capital spending, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

    Orders for all durable goods fell 2.8% in May, led by a hefty 22.7% drop in orders for civilian aircraft. Orders for all sorts of durable goods were weak in May. Only electronics and defense goods recorded an increase.

    The 2.8% drop in total orders was weaker than the 1.7% decline expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. It was the biggest drop in orders since January.

    Orders excluding transportation fell 1%, also the largest decline since January.

    More at the link above, Rich

  30. BC Bob says:

    Rich [35],

    If business investment spending does not carry the baton, can the govt sector carry us to the finish line? China will be sending paramedics to resuscitate the US consumer.

  31. James Bednar says:

    10Y way down to 5.03%

    jb

  32. gary says:

    jb,

    I bought a Trek bike about 3 months ago and haven’t stopped riding it yet. lol! It’s called an “Urban” bike… it’s a hybrid and it’s fast and durable. I didn’t want to get a racing bike or a mountain bike so this was a good mix. It’s what you see these NYC messengers riding a lot of the time. I’ll see if I can find a link to it.

  33. BC Bob says:

    [37]

    Out of risk. That gulping sound is the start of liquidity getting sucked out of the system.

  34. 3b says:

    #7 JB You have to wnder why these people still wnat to go ahead with this project? So they not have any clue at all that the market has changed?

    Or is it yeah we know, but our project will be different better, nicer etc, and people will pay?

  35. john says:

    7:00 – Mortgage Applications

    The Mortgage Bankers Association releases its mortgage application volume data for home buying and refinancing activity for the week ending June 1. In the week ended May 25, the purchase index slipped a little to 427, from 438.1 in the period ended May 18. The refi index dropped 13% to 1874.6, from 2154.7 in the prior period.

    The four-week moving average for the purchase index held pretty steady at 433.9, from 434. The four-week average for the refi index cooled to 2065, from 2100.3. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbed a bit more to 6.32% for the week of May 25, from 6.23%.

  36. 3b says:

    #7 JB You have to wonder why they still want to go ahead with the project, in this envrironment.

  37. john says:

    Lennar’s Latest Results Stir Heavy Trading on Builders

    (WSJ) Taking their lead from Lennar Corp.’s glum quarterly financial report, traders targeted put options on several home builders.
    The action followed word of Lennar’s second-quarter net loss on land and inventory write-downs. The company said its troubles will likely continue through the third quarter. Wall Street had expected the Miami company to generate a profit in both periods.

    The trading yesterday accompanied a report from the Commerce Department that showed sales of new homes are pacing below economists’ expectations.

    In 4 p.m. composite trading on the New York Stock Exchange yesterday, Lennar shares fell $1.20, or 3.1%, to $37.55, their lowest level since September 2003. Trading was heavier than usual in puts on Lennar as well as Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. and KB Home, which reports its earnings tomorrow.

    Nearly 32,000 put options on Lennar changed hands yesterday, compared with slightly more than 15,000 call options, according to financial-services company Track Data. Much of the trading was the work of traders selling back contracts that profited from falling stock price.

    Sellers cashed in existing positions in August $40 puts, according to TradeAlert.com. More than 8,600 of these changed hands, compared with nearly 10,000 already outstanding. Sellers of these could get about $3.40 for them by the end of the session.

  38. James Bednar says:

    #39

    Out of risk.

    After the dismal data this week, the big R banana is back on the table.

    jb

  39. James Bednar says:

    #7 JB You have to wonder why they still want to go ahead with the project, in this envrironment.

    On a scale that large, I believe margins may be wide enough to allow for significant pricing pressure against existing home sales in that area if need be. New home prices don’t need to undercut EHS pricing, just come within a range where consumers see value over the EHS market.

    jb

  40. BC Bob says:

    JB,

    It’s been on the table. However, everybody was too involved at cocktail hour to notice.

  41. Orion says:

    OT-

    People,

    I believe this real estate bust will have negative lingering affects for years to come.

    But, please, pay close attention to something that may negatively affect us all for decades:
    The Senate Vote on the Immigration Bill

    Stay alert.

  42. SG says:

    Orion: Don’t worry, Immigration will only help NJ.

    Who else will work for $5 an hour filling up our gas guzzlers? We are too rich and fat to get out and fill it up ourselves.

    I have one word for most of NJ: Hypocrates !!!

  43. commanderbobnj says:

    “…But, please, pay close attention to something that may negatively affect us all for decades…”
    The Senate Vote on the Immigration Bill…—-ABOVE QUOTE By Orion(#48)

    How RIGHT you are, Orion———We all have to watch those (IMHO) whores in Washington as they vote to give million of ILLEGAL INVADERS legal status as a reward for being here..

    Can you imagine how much the welfare budgets will grow to when all these uneducated masses and their super-large families place themselves in subsidized housing all over this “peoples republic of NJ” ???——–You ALL think that ALL the collective taxes that we pay are high NOW ?—-Just wait until these “SELL-OUTS” in the senate and the house of representatives get done ‘screwing us’ during the next few weeks!!!

    What those Bast*rd LIBERALS have done to this nation since the Kennedy-Johnson administration is what WE are reaping today—-

    GOD Help(and SAVE)the United States !!!

    BOB

  44. James Bednar says:

    Whiplash..

    From MarketWatch:

    Fed rate cut is priced in again

    The Federal Reserve is once again expected to cut interest rates by the end of the year, according to the futures market at the Chicago Board of Trade. Weak economic data from housing, manufacturing and consumer spending have pushed prices on federal funds futures higher. The price of the December futures contract implies a 56% chance of a rate cut, up from 37% earlier. It’s the first time in nearly a month that the futures market is predicting a rate cut. Two weeks ago, the market was pricing in a 12% chance of a rate increase by the end of the year.

  45. make money says:

    3 Contrywide exec’s plead guilty to insider trading.

    http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?view=CN&WTmodLOC=C3-News-2&symbol=CFC&storyID=2007-06-26T232342Z_01_N26247348_RTRIDST_0_COUNTRYWIDE-UPDATE-3.XML&type=qcna

    Somebody is going to jail and it’s not Mozzillo. He’s only sold over 125M worth of stock in the last 2yrs.

  46. njpatient says:

    Chifi: referencing yesterday’s FSBO discussion, you said:
    “patient: you have to do better than that……at a minimum give us the source data, metrics, method of calculation, and most importantly who did it and what bias they may have brought the study…..these requests are fair, no?”

    If you read the article (linked below via this blog as we discussed a couple of Friday’s ago, key quote excerpted), I think it’s clear that there is no indication of bias, but also clear that the study is of uncertain meaning. I don’t have all the supporting data, or course, but if you have source data, metrics, method of calculation, background/bias information for a study that says the opposite I’d be interested to hear it.

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/06/08/do-realtors-add-value-or-not

    “The conclusion, in a study to be released today based on home-sales data from 1998 to 2004 in Madison, Wis., is that people in that city who sold their homes through real estate agents typically did not get a higher sale price than people who sold their homes themselves. When the agent’s commission is factored in, the for-sale-by-owner people came out ahead financially.”

  47. James Bednar says:

    Here is a link to the Northwestern University study:

    http://www.faculty.econ.northwestern.edu/faculty/nevo/research/fsbo.pdf

    The Relative Performance of Real Estate Marketing Platforms: MLS versus FSBOMadison.com
    Igal Hendel, Aviv Nevo, and François Ortalo-Magné
    June 7, 2007

    jb

  48. Rich In NNJ says:

    SG,

    Who else will work for $5 an hour filling up our gas guzzlers? We are too rich and fat to get out and fill it up ourselves.

    I have one word for most of NJ: Hypocrates !!!

    You do realize that neither being rich or fat has anything to do with why people don’t pump their own gas in NJ… right?

  49. john says:

    In today’s society of eductated MBA types with access to the internet and pricing tools of course they can do better selling it themselves. Last house I sold I got 550K on a FSBO after the listing expired and the highest bid was $519 with a 5% commission. which bought it to only 493K after their 26K commission. So in this case the realtor would have to be able to find a buyer for 26K more just to break even. Now why did the realtor not work so hard. Well it was MLS so he had to split so he at best got 3% so if he worked his ass off marketing my house and got 550K instead of 500K he would have only earned an extra $1,500 commission. Easier to stick a for sale sign out front and get buyers to take a lower price for less work and sell more houses than to work your ass off or a little extra commission on a start home.

  50. njpatient says:

    Thanks for the link, JB (you’re quick as always)

  51. john says:

    Rich In NNJ Says:
    June 27th, 2007 at 9:48 am
    SG,

    Unless you are handicapped only lazy arrogant people allow someone to pump their gas!!! In addition fatsos are lazy so having someone pump your gas means you are lazy and are or will be fat.

    Who else will work for $5 an hour filling up our gas guzzlers? We are too rich and fat to get out and fill it up ourselves.

    I have one word for most of NJ: Hypocrates !!!

    You do realize that neither being rich or fat has anything to do with why people don’t pump their own gas in NJ… right?

  52. make money says:

    commanderbobnj,

    You are worried because some of them will be on welfare?

    How about that most of them don’t pay any income taxes? They can’t spend because they can’t have credit cards. They can’t even have a bank account. They can’t earn, live spend and produce like the rest of us. They can’t go to school and get financial assistance neither in loans or grants.

    Not to mention jobs with no healthcare, working on hazardous conditions, no benefits, retirement plans etc. This will make our nation better and not worse.

    These people will stop mowing your loan and start buying your houses. Ooops they’re already doing that.

    If you can’t make money to live a good life have a good house and keep your wife home and raise the kids properly don’t blame the state, gov’t or some hard working individual who worked 16 hour days for 5 yrs and stacked 250K for a downpayment and you are in credit card debt.

    Blame your self for your shortcommings or just accept it and move on.

  53. njpatient says:

    “You do realize that neither being rich or fat has anything to do with why people don’t pump their own gas in NJ… right?”

    Stop complicating matters with inconvenient facts.

    Next you’ll be pointing out that gang members probably aren’t immigrants because, as a matter of fact, immigrants have a lower crime rate than non-immigrants.

  54. njpatient says:

    #59

    D’OH!!!

  55. Rich In NNJ says:

    John / njpatient,

    Bite me.

    I’ll write out my point since you both are either to slow or ignorant to follow along.

    It’s a state law that you can not pump your own gas, so SG’s analogy doesn’t work. Period.

    I said nothing about my not wanting to pump my own gas (I frequently do, if not I’m out of the vehicle instead of sitting there waiting to be served my bill) or ANYTHING about immigrants.

    Rich

  56. Rich In NNJ says:

    Crap, NJPatients I read your comment and took the wrong meaning.

    I get your sarcasm now!

  57. Jamey says:

    JB (# 26)

    Nearly all bikes already have features to prevent the wheel from coming off in the event that the quick-release lever isn’t properly engaged, including flared front fork drop-outs (so one has to further unscrew the quick-release skewer nut further to remove the wheel–I HATE that feature), and vertical rear drop-outs, which utilize gravity to keep the bike seated on the rear axle at all times. But that’s on “better” bikes ($200 and up), which most often are sold to people who know what the f**k they’re doing.

    That said, an overwhelming majority of bikes are sold at discount stores like Target, Wal-Mart, and Toys R Us. These stores have no trained help, and do not dispense information on how to use even the simplest devices. (Shimano and other major parts manufacturers stick pictographic instruction labels on all quick-releases, but I see these things are often missing from the bikes at Target.) It’s wholly conceivable that some nitwit would start jumping curbs without checking that his or her wheels are properly affixed to the bike. So thanks a lot, free marketers…

    Not sure what to say about this law, except that it’s unnecesary and that it comes at the wrong time. We should be encouraging people to ride, not create further obstacles.

    Pesche22: where sane people see complexity in problems, you see “libs.” It must really suck to be you…or somebody in your family.

  58. New in Town says:

    Hypocrates(sic)? Yes we’re all doctors.

  59. SG says:

    make money: Good points. Most folks forget the fact that Immigrants are just folks same as ordinary americans with similar dreams (and sometime more dreams). The use of Welfare is over emphasized by Anti-Immigration lobby. Similarly they claim immigrants Emergency room. Its primarily because the jobs they are forced to work in, employers don’t provide health insurance. Given the freedom, they can give boot to such employers.

    From my personal experience, When I worked in US on work visa, I spent very less money and saved most. Once I received the Green Card, I bought House, increased my income, pay much more taxes and spend much much more to help local economy.

    The problem with most is they think glass is half empty and not half full.

  60. njpatient says:

    “I get your sarcasm now!”

    phew!

    Glad I don’t have to bite you!

  61. James Bednar says:

    From nj.com:

    Corzine plans to trim items from state spending plan

    Gov. Jon Corzine said today he will make “quite a number” of line-item veotes to eliminate specific spending projects in the $33.5 billion state budget before signing it, probably Thursday.

    “I’ve been very clear that legislative earmarks to individual districts are not something we are in favor of,” Corzine said in an interview on WNYC this morning. “You will see quite a number of line items that are cut back quite a bit. … We will be very aggressive in looking at some of those additions.”

    Corzine pledged to rework the state’s budget process, marked last year by hundreds of millions of so-called “Christmas tree” items added in the final hours before the budget was approved. This year, lawmakers had to make public formal requests for public funding of pet projects, and Corzine threatened to veto any request that applied to a single district or town.

    Although the budget still contains millions of dollars in pet projects, Corzine said he has spent the past week since the Legislature passed the budget — well ahead of the July 1 constitution deadline — “scrubbing” the budget to rid it of pork

  62. Rich In NNJ says:

    Glad I don’t have to bite you!

    Me too!
    Besides, I don’t think anyone would want to bite a fat, lazy doctor.

  63. SG says:

    Rich: My point was not analogy. I understand its a state law.

    The point I am trying to make is most illegal immigrants don’t have choise. Due to their status they have to work in one of the worst conditions. If most folks had choise, the wages would rise. That would ensure that cheap labor is not exploited. Since you have cheap labor available, people don’t feel the pinch. Once cheap labor is gone, gas prices will reflect that, and people will start asking why they need full service at all gas stations.

  64. make money says:

    Orion,

    Oh No… they are going to give immigrants the right to vote. The same rights that we have. This is like setting the slaves free.
    This country will be “doomed” for decades.

    You’re pathetic!!!!

  65. New in Town says:

    re 34
    I have those lips on the front fork. I don’t have them on the rear of any of my bikes. In my case, the QR was tight, just not tight enough. My fault entirely because the serrations were somewhat worn.

    I was trying to accelerate up a 10% grade so the torque was maxed out.

  66. make money says:

    On a lighter side I thought you’d be happy to know that I have increased rents 6% accross the board starting August 1st. I told each tennant that if they wanted out they would have to let me know by July 1st or I will hold on to their deposit.

    I haven’t heard from anyone so far. I should have did this months ago.

  67. gary says:

    make money #73,

    Simply the privilege of living in Northern New Snooty. I’m sure your well heeled occupants will have no problem meeting the conditions.

  68. Rich In NNJ says:

    SG,

    I think you sum it up when you say illegal immigrants.

    The only ones who benefit from using illegal immigrants are those that hire them. Otherwise both the tax payer and the illegal immigrant lose.
    I’d rather have lower taxes and let market forces deal with the cost of wages in services.

    Rich

  69. Commanderbobnj says:

    ——————————————

    Now –SG, You and Makemoney sound like nice and “concerned-for-fellow-man” persons—-I usually don’t respond to posts that ‘leave-out’ Important–Present Day–“IN-YOUR-FACE” and -BEFORE-YOU-CAME-HERE–HISTORICAL ‘points’ in a discussion such as this one:
    “…SG Says:(#70)
    June 27th, 2007 at 10:34 am

    “….The point I am trying to make is most illegal immigrants don’t have choise. Due to their status they have to work in one of the worst conditions. If most folks had choise, the wages would rise. That would ensure that cheap labor is not exploited. Since you have cheap labor available, people don’t feel the pinch. Once cheap labor is gone, gas prices will reflect that, and people will start asking why they need full service at all gas stations…”
    ———————————————–
    I, COMMANDERBOBNJ now reply:
    SG,You had mentioned in Post#66 that you had gone through the process of obtaining a work Visa and Green Card———–WE ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT LEGAL IMMIGRATION !! You did the right thing (your ‘choise’)as well as what my family and many on this blog had done in the past history of this nation——No nation in modern history has allowed it’s borders to be penetrated by ILLEGALS—I would bet that the country that you came from is not allowing this to happen….

    By the way, You or one of the other uninformed souls above mentioned something about medical or hospitals—-Just last week one of my customers, a doctor who is attached to both Englewood NJ and a New York City hospital was telling me about the millions of dollars UNCOLLECTABLE because of illegals having them and their extended families treated by our medical teams and then ‘skipping-out’!!———Who do you think ‘makes up’ that lost money –HAH ?—–The government?–No’ WE THE LEGAL CITIZENS do—Through our HIGH taxes that will only go higher once those senate whores open up the floodgates…

    To all those who have such great “compassion” for the ILLEGAL INVADERS: Why don’t you take them in to YOUR houses, feed them, cloth them and give the ca$h that you think that they deserve—Let’s see how that works’-out for you and your family!

    Bye Bye for now…..

    BOB

  70. SG says:

    make money: After your Rent hike, how does Rent Vs Buy fare for those renters? Does Buying make sense for these renters?

  71. Richard says:

    look at that 10 year yield. remember folks i said 5.10% come end of year. maybe i’ll be right for a change ;)

  72. Read my lips SG can't spell says:

    don’t bother arguing with SG regarding immigration. he will NEVER understand the difference between immigrants and illegal immigrants.
    he’s made the same arguments over and over. he feels all immigrants – legal or not – deserve the same rights as citizens.

  73. njpatient says:

    What we need is a few more commenters named Bob.

    BOOO – YAAAAA!!

    (This is not an endorsement of comments by commenters named Bob, other than the one quoted).

  74. Richard says:

    >>Good for you. Why not tell the seller that you will hire the firm that does the work. Skeptical? No. I would just like to be in control of the situation.

    you can hire the termite firm, but make sure if you go to closing you pad the estimate by 2x or work out some other arrangement to get the full amount of the cost. once you go searching for termites you don’t know where it’ll end.

  75. SG says:

    BOB: Well most Anti-Immigrants try to pit Legal Vs Illegal against each other, like they have a choice. The only choice Legislators have is on Legal Immigration.

    The only reason, You have illegal immigration, is because one can’t enforce borders. The solution is in enforcing laws and puting money where the mouth is.

    Having said that, there are only 3 choices.

    1. Deport illegal immigrants.
    2. Keep status quo.
    3. Legalize illegals who are already here.

    Try to do number 1, and you have immediate shortage of cheap labor. The number 2 option suits most people and employers, as it supplies the cheap labor.

    As far as high emergency room costs, The issue is our healthcare system, not illegals. You have 50 million uninsured people, illegals are at best 10 million of them. The remaining 40 million are US citizens but still can’t afford healthcare. People just assume uninsured person is illegal, while majority of uninsured people are US citizens. Fix the healthcare system for that, don’t blame immigration.

  76. Richard says:

    >>The point I am trying to make is most illegal immigrants don’t have choise

    they’re illegal. they don’t have choices since they are trespassing and are at the mercy of the laws of the land in question. secure the borders and then let’s talk about how to solve the issue. greatest country in the world that can rain down missles with pinpoint accuracy and we can’t keep people from entering our country. what a farce.

  77. njpatient says:

    “secure the borders and then let’s talk about how to solve the issue.”

    Expensive.

    Easy way is to have draconian penalties against the companies that hire illegals. No jobs, no illegals.

    Unfortunately, those companies like the illegals, and donate lots of campaign cash (it’s “free speach”, don’t you know – just ask Scalia).

  78. Commanderbobnj says:

    ———————————————
    Read my lips SG can’t spell Said:(#79)
    June 27th, 2007 at 11:32 am

    “…don’t bother arguing with SG regarding immigration. he will NEVER understand the difference between immigrants and illegal immigrants.
    he’s made the same arguments over and over. he feels all immigrants – legal or not – deserve the same rights as citizens…”
    _______________________________________________
    COMMANDERBOBNJ reply:

    ‘LIPS’—I think that you are right; Even though he got into this country legally somehow (probably something to do with computers…)
    Goes-to-show: some people can be brain doctors or teachers but that doesn’t mean that they have any common sense!———-Ha Ha

    P.S.–Let’s keep those comments coming, -“LIPS”

    BOB

  79. SG says:

    Richard: Agree with you 100%. The issue is enforcement.

  80. James Bednar says:

    I don’t mind the illegal/legal discussion, but please tame the ad-hominem arguments.

    jb

  81. john says:

    So now it is the government’s fault your are so fat?

    Rich In NNJ Says:
    June 27th, 2007 at 10:09 am
    John / njpatient,

    Bite me.

    I’ll write out my point since you both are either to slow or ignorant to follow along.

    It’s a state law that you can not pump your own gas, so SG’s analogy doesn’t work. Period.

    I said nothing about my not wanting to pump my own gas (I frequently do, if not I’m out of the vehicle instead of sitting there waiting to be served my bill) or ANYTHING about immigrants.

    Rich

  82. 3b says:

    #73 GGreat for you, but it may not look like such a great decsion in a year or two.

  83. Ramesh says:

    Thanks BC bob. I will work with my lawyer.

  84. 3b says:

    #51 JB No rate cut IMHO

  85. john says:

    So the real reason you have to pump your own gas is your prior governor was afraid you guys might put the gas “in the wrong hole”. Funny thing is that is what got your governor thrown out and his wife to divorce him.

    New Jersey’s close call with self-service
    The governor of New Jersey is shelving a plan to have residents pump their own gas, averting a break from the state’s long full-service tradition. The plan has received much criticism, USA TODAY’s Charisse Jones explains.

    “Critics of a shift to self-service say pumping their own gas would be especially hard on the elderly, could create a safety hazard as inexperienced motorists try to fill their tanks and cost many station attendants their jobs while doing nothing to lower prices,” the AP says. What are the safety hazards for inexperienced gas-pumpers? Not knowing to avoid smoking while filling up, the head of a state gas station group says. Also: “It could be put in the wrong container.”

    For those unfamiliar with the concept of a gas tank, and perhaps those having multiple holes in the sides of their cars, eHow.com offers “How to Fill Up a Gas Tank.”

  86. dreamtheaterr says:

    As someone who came to the US as a grad student and now working and on a path towards establishing permanent residency in the US, I have my (perhaps biased) perspective. Deporting 12 million folks is obviously not an option. But Washington folks at least need to make them stand in queue behind other law abiding immigrants aspiring to become US citizens. Don’t send the wrong message to ‘future’ illegal immigrants that they can show up to the US and be granted residency.

    Hmm, I’d be better off changing my name to some Pedro Martinez and claim I came here illegaly and get ahead in the queue of all the Princeton educated PhD.s and their like who have been waiting, some in excess of 8-10 years just for their Green Card.

    There are laws in every country. What truly differentiates the US from the rest of the world and makes it great is ‘enforcement’ of law. The repurcussions of breaking the law keeps people from getting themselves into trouble. Once that fear is no longer there, it’s a breakdown of civil society.

    Hey, how about another guess on the NAR excuse for why June home sales will be lackluster. Mr. Yun says ‘Unusually large number of immigrants have decided to wait and watch the passage of the Immigration Bill before buying’.

  87. njpatient says:

    #88 didn’t read #87

  88. john says:

    http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2007/06/25/houses-should-not-be-a-commodity/

    Enough fun, this is an amazing article about housing prices.

  89. scribe says:

    make money,

    I’m glad you’re not my landlord.

    Do you realize you sound like a slumlord?

  90. john says:

    Time line for housing market

    Take off: 1998-1999
    First Sell Off: 2000
    Media Attention: 2001-2002
    Enthusiasm: 2003
    Greed: 2004-2005
    Delusion: 2006
    Denial: 2007
    Fear: 2008
    Capitulation: 2009-2010
    Despair: 2011-2013
    Return to the Mean: 2014

  91. BC Bob says:

    John [97],

    Amen.

  92. john says:

    My problem in general is not with the illegals but with educated people from foreign countries coming to the tristate area and receiving top jobs while locals are forced into lesser jobs. Every day I see people from London, Tokyo, India, Canada, the midwest etc with great jobs waiting for them in NYC. I can assure you that a new yorker/new jersian with his thick accent can go to any of those places and get a great job as they are reserved for locals only. It is unfair and I can’t blame people from elsewhere from coming here and taking all the six figure jobs. But I find it funny how someone from Milwaukee can go to Goldman and get a great six figure job but a guy fron new york can’t go to milwaukee as all the great jobs are for locals only.

    dreamtheaterr Says:
    June 27th, 2007 at 12:08 pm
    As someone who came to the US as a grad student and now working and on a path towards establishing permanent residency in the US, I have my (perhaps biased) perspective. Deporting 12 million folks is obviously not an option. But Washington folks at least need to make them stand in queue behind other law abiding immigrants aspiring to become US citizens. Don’t send the wrong message to ‘future’ illegal immigrants that they can show up to the US and be granted residency.

  93. schabadoo says:

    —any one from sparta? I’ve lived in Bergen County for 30 years, looking for more open space, heard sparta is perfect. 45 miles to NYC and very open.—

    I live out that way, my buddy lives there. It’s exactly as you describe, but it is quite a ride.

  94. make money says:

    If i’m a struggling person in a foreign country and I want to be able to provide a decent life for myself and my family. I want to work long hours but be able to provide a decent life and education for my kids.

    I decide that a migration to NYC will allow me to do that. I go to a US embassy and get denied Visa because i’m a poor peasant in my country and the whole Visa system is corrupt.

    Do I give up and say I’m doomed or do I take a chance, brake a law in order to provide the above for my family.

    How many of you will say “I will not brake a law and let me family starve and live in miserable condition for the rest of their pathetic lives”

    So I say to hell with the law, sell the land that I have back home and put all the money in some smugglers hand and hope he’ll get me to NY. Do you know what balls you need to do this.

    Put yourself in their shoes. They’re human. You’d do the same. The only difference between Igor, Jose, Chin Cho, James McClaan, Antonio Tardelli or Mohammed is some have a greencard and some don’t. they’re all pretty much the same people.

    Why not give them the same rights as everyone else?

  95. SS says:

    Does this immigration bill have a provision for paying a penalty + back taxes? If this is the case I have no problem with making illegals legal. I think it’s great for the country to have diversity. However if it’s not the case – jail & deportation.

    As for health care – SG has a point. It does suck in this country. Maybe if the govt. stopped paying hundred$ of billion$ to foreign governments for our right to keep military bases in their country we might have something for health care. Look at Germany – both male and female can take a years paid leave when having a child – they should thank Bush for that one!

  96. make money says:

    #97

    You’re right on target.

  97. chicagofinance says:

    njpatient Says:
    June 27th, 2007 at 9:42 am
    “The conclusion, in a study to be released today based on home-sales data from 1998 to 2004 in Madison, Wis., is that people in that city who sold their homes through real estate agents typically did not get a higher sale price than people who sold their homes themselves. When the agent’s commission is factored in, the for-sale-by-owner people came out ahead financially.”

    PATIENT:
    #1 YOU CITE NORTHWESTERN PROFESSORS TO ME? To quote Ragu Rajan
    http://www.imf.org/external/np/bio/eng/rr.htm%5D
    “…someone tell Kellogg to get a faculty in Economics…”

    #2 New York Times [not withstanding RE advertising]

    #3 and I quote “….Madison is home to one of the biggest for-sale-by-owner Web sites in the country. The economists pitted that site against the local multiple listing service operated by real estate agents…..”

    and

    “…There are asterisks. The authors cautioned that they did not know whether the results from Madison applied to the country as a whole; certainly, selling a house without a real estate agent would be harder in a city without a heavily trafficked for-sale-by-owner Web site.”

    and MOST IMPORTANTLY

    “…The authors have presented their paper at forums at many leading universities, but it has not yet been submitted to a journal for peer review….” yeah right

  98. Pooch123 says:

    John,

    Its not normal for the great jobs to be for “locals only” except in unique circumstances. There are hundreds of thousands of American citizens abroad with great jobs. Are they “stealing jobs” from locals in Hong Kong, London, Tokyo or anywhere else? People chasing dollars abroad is a fact of life, whether they’re Indian or East Asian or a white guy from Cherry Hill

    The idea of “stealing jobs” is kinda wacky to me. what about US citizens who go

  99. make money says:

    SG #77,

    make money: After your Rent hike, how does Rent Vs Buy fare for those renters? Does Buying make sense for these renters?

    What do I care about the calculation. Let them figure it out.

    I told them all that I took out those bad adjustuble mortgage’s and the rates are resetting and I’ll be in danger of foreclosing if I don’t raise rents. It seems like they bought it. They don’t want some bank to kick them out either.

    That Bentley is looking good next year.

  100. njpatient says:

    #104 chicago
    As I believe I said, the meaning of the study is unclear. But I’d like to see what the contrary evidence is, if you have it.

  101. chicagofinance says:

    Patient: by the way, that paper does not refute my thesis from yesterday…..sellers use a RE agent, and savvy buyers should target FSBO.

  102. thatbigwindow says:

    The best argument NJ motorists can come up with in regards to the pumping gas issue is:

    “I just don’t want to do it myself.”

    Speaks volumes!

  103. njpatient says:

    On the contrary, taken at face value it stands for the proposition that FSBO sellers do better than those with a RE agent. This is not inconsistent with the notion that buyers do better targeting FSBOs, since it is possible (and it begins to appear that neither of us has meaningful evidence one way or another) that both buyers and sellers do better without a RE agent.

  104. thatbigwindow says:

    On another note, I will preach tolerance, free speech, and open-mindedness. The minute I disagree with you, I will attempt to silence and degrade you.

  105. chicagofinance says:

    contrary evidence?

    Look out the window. As I said yesterday, any industry that fails to provide long term value to the public is doomed.

    Is the FTC suing the NAR, or any of the regional organizations for monopolistic practices or collusion? no

    Does the industry exist? yes

    Does the industry exist in the face of TREMENDOUS FORCES THREATENING DISINTERMEDIATION [e.g., Internet, low-cost alternatives, James “grim” Bednar]? yes

    Do I need some tweed jacketed, elbow patched, combover jockey to tell me that? no

  106. john says:

    When I worked in Bermuda, I could not buy land could not get a license, could not buy a business as that was reserved for native Bermudians and visa gave me a very limited time to stay. Had to give address, job, phone number proof of everything. Plus you can only be a Bermudian by being born there. In fact if an american marries a bermudian and has four kids and lives in bermuda 50 years and their spouse dies before them they can be departed. Same thing with my work in Japan, we were only welcomed or tolerated as ex-pats with expiring visas and few rights. Here we give the keys to the cities to the same places that treat us like dirt. Pooch123 Says:
    June 27th, 2007 at 12:45 pm
    John,

    Its not normal for the great jobs to be for “locals only” except in unique circumstances. There are hundreds of thousands of American citizens abroad with great jobs. Are they “stealing jobs” from locals in Hong Kong, London, Tokyo or anywhere else? People chasing dollars abroad is a fact of life, whether they’re Indian or East Asian or a white guy from Cherry Hill

    The idea of “stealing jobs” is kinda wacky to me. what about US citizens who go

  107. dreamtheaterr says:

    Don’t under estimate globalization of the workforce. There are tons of US citizens working and emigrated all over the world. These are the folks who are the brains behind the successful expansion of US multinational companies abroad. Are they taking away native jobs? Absolutely not. They are in fact helping create local jobs by the hundreds of thousands.

    Free trade is a two-way street.

  108. john says:

    According to the recently issued Papal driving rules it is a sin to own a Bentley. Better give that money to charity and drive a YUGO!!

    make money Says:
    That Bentley is looking good next year.

  109. James Bednar says:

    Deja vu? Didn’t we talk about this yesterday? talk about this yesterday?

    From Reuters:

    Benchmark ABX subprime index hits new low -sources

    A benchmark subprime mortgage derivatives index fell to a new low on Wednesday on continued fears of deterioration in the subprime mortgage market.

    The ABX 2006-2 “BBB-minus” series, which is tied to subprime loans in last year’s first half, fell to 61.5 from its previous low of 62.16, market sources said.

    The ABX 2007-1, which references loans from the second half of last year, is trading between 55.5 and 56.5 compared to 57 on Tuesday. The index is near its recent low of 56.18.

  110. thatbigwindow says:

    That is right! Aren’t your tenants entitled to the same Bentley as you have????

  111. njpatient says:

    “As I said yesterday, any industry that fails to provide long term value to the public is doomed.”

    But that begs the question (and in fact began this exchange). As we’ve covered already, most folks hire RE agents for convenience, not for value added.

    You can discount the Madison study, but the fact is that we don’t know whether RE agents add financial value (as opposed to convenience value) and there’s no good evidence that they do (at least not out my window there isn’t).

  112. hoodafa says:

    Toll Sees No Housing Jump Before April

    Wed Jun 27, 2007 11:53AM EDT

    From Reuters:

    NEW YORK (Reuters) – The sagging U.S. housing market probably will not rebound before next April, when the U.S. presidential candidates become apparent and start boosting national confidence, the head of luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc. said on Wednesday.

    More at: http://www.reuters.com/article/RealEstate07/idUSN2741174320070627?src=062707_1139_INVESTING_reuters_real_estate_summit

  113. john says:

    The idiot re agents I spoke to did not even add a convenience value. They serve a purpose for someone like my nutty neighbor who can’t negoitate and is irrational and the non-english speakers and the mentally retarded but other than that I would give than a big fat zero

  114. otis wildflower says:

    Deporting 12 million folks is obviously not an option.

    Agreed. But making employment of illegal aliens a federal felony that would put bosses in pound-you-in-the-ass prison _is_ an option.

  115. make money says:

    #96 Scribe,

    Thsi is what I do. This si my job, my business, this puts food on the table, college tution plans, vacations, not to mention the inflation is real.

    If it was any other business you’d say great job, you increased prices and the demand and cost is the same. Maximizing profits.

    Don’t hate the player hate the game.

  116. Bloodbath in Winter 2007 says:

    Anyone with MLS access …

    what’s the story with
    2381514

    Looks nice from the outside – though i worry about what looks like a well in the front yard. I’m interested in the address to see if it’s on a main road.

    Thanks in advance …

  117. hoodafa says:

    Re: #116 and 106:

    or….you could drop the Bentley in favor of a Ferrari:

    Ferrari: It Ain’t A Sin To Buy The Car

    More at Reuters:
    http://www.reuters.com/article/oddlyEnoughNews/idUSEIC25648920070622

  118. hoodafa says:

    Excerpt from #120:

    “Historically, one of the strongest home-buying seasons has been between the Super Bowl pro football championship, usually in early February, and Easter, although this year that strength failed to materialize.”

    Is this true? I always thought early Feb through early Apr is a lean period for RE.

  119. SG says:

    BW Article: The Housing Mirage

    It’s getting harder to see how much longer the housing market will continue to drop before hitting bottom
    by Maya Roney

    Like a mirage in the desert, the bottom of the housing slump seems to fade in and out of sight as the year progresses. Home sales jump, and there—you think you can make it out in the distance. Home sales fall, and it’s lost in the haze.

    http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jun2007/db20070626_408546.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_top+story

  120. make money says:

    #118

    I don’t have a Bentley yet. And Yes they are entitled. I was talking about leveling the playing field and giving everyone the opportunity to become wealthy. To have a good life. To have the right to put your hard earned money in a bank like evryone else. To have the right to pay taxes and vote. Go to school and takeout a student loan. How many of us would have gotten an education if it weren’t for student loans.

    If you don’t become wealthy or you choose to rent then you have no one else to blame but yourself. Don’t blame the state, don’t blame the taxes, don’t blame the immigrants who are taking your jobs( like you’re entitled to it just cause your mom gave birth to you in the area).

    This is the land of opportunity and if you don’t make it just blame yourself.

  121. Stu says:

    #124

    Well it’s 190 years old for starters and has oil heat. Perhaps it’s haunted?

  122. BC Bob says:

    “If you don’t become wealthy or you choose to rent then you have no one else to blame but yourself.”

    So your point is there aren’t any wealthy renters?

    “So often times it happens that we live our lives in chains, and we never even know we have the key” [Eagles]

  123. par4156 says:

    Re; 114,
    It’s probably different in an INDEPENDANT country. Bermuda is a British overseas territory.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bermuda

  124. BC Bob says:

    “Bermuda”

    Ah. The Rum Swizzle Inn.

  125. par4156 says:

    Here’s a country with similar immegration issues as US…but they probably do a better job of enforcement because the country’s tiny…
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbados

  126. par4156 says:

    “immigration” …before the spelling police get me

  127. Dink says:

    #123 make money,

    You say you are just maximizing profits, so what can’t you just be honest and upfront with your tenants. If your raising rent because of inflationary pressure, why not just let them know that, instead of playing “oh poor me” and lying about a possible foreclosure.

  128. Rich In NNJ says:

    Blood,

    Sorry, can’t help. Must be a GSMLS number.

  129. Pooch123 says:

    Yep Dink (re make)

    Its silly to think tenants care about how their landlord got financing. I don’t care about how mine did, and would only stick around if rent was at or below market.

    If your tenants stick around in spite of rent increases that outpace inflation, it means you’re charging market rent. It also means you may’ve been leaving money on the table until now.

  130. BC Bob says:

    Dink [135],

    Any landlord, in their right mind, would never tell a tenant that he is raising rents to ward off a possible foreclosure. Renters are smarter than Make. They would either high tail out or not make their payments.

  131. AntiTrump says:

    PIMCO’s Gross: Subprime crisis not ‘isolated’
    Bill Gross, manager of the world’s largest bond fund, says the subprime mortgage crisis will eventually take a toll on the economy.

    http://tinyurl.com/2sat9s

    But then again Reechard has a better handle on the real-estate market than Bill Gross so I wouldn’t fuss too much on Bill’s view.

  132. Rich In NNJ says:

    Hoofda,

    #126
    I always thought early Feb through early Apr is a lean period for RE.

    Looking at the NJMLS data for Bergen County, most units go under contract between March and June with most of the sales closing between May and August.
    Most of these sales are for existing homes.

    Rich

  133. transplant says:

    Response to John #99:
    I’m a transplant from the midwest to the NJ/NYC area. I’m educated and experienced in my field and I came here, yes, to take a high paying job.
    To be blunt, I would be hesitant to hire NJ/NY natives if I were running my own business. I’m really not trying to be a troll, but most people I’ve met who were born and raised here are loud mouthed meat-heads with misplaced priorities and a deep love for the sound of their own voices. And the average level of education and general knowledge is laughable (and I’m speaking as someone who grew up in rural Kentucky, so I’m quite familiar with ignorant people).
    Again, I’m not trying to be a d*ck, I’m just calling it like I see it. I’m sure there are exceptions to what I just said, but after 4 years in the area, I’ve met precious few.

  134. dreamtheaterr says:

    #139, Shhh, don’t disturb Richard. He’s busy monitoring his latest trade unfold on the 10Y.

  135. James Bednar says:

    Blood,

    It was originally listed under:

    MLS# 2316786
    Listed: 09/04/06
    OLP: $549,000
    Reduced to: $499,000
    DOM: 181
    Expired

    Currently under:

    MLS# 2381514
    Listed: 03/05/07
    OLP: $499,000
    Currently: $459,000
    DOM: 114

    It’s on Central, in the 330’s, I’d suggest taking a ride around the area.

    jb

  136. BC Bob says:

    transpalnt [141],

    As a born and raised Jerseyite I hate to admit it, but feel, imo, that your assessment is accurate.

  137. SS says:

    response to transplant,

    I take exception to that bogus statement. That’s similar to saying you married your sister because you’re from Kentucky.

  138. Bystander says:

    #95 – The charts and graphs are nice and lots of patient renters are using them to point at the “imminent bust”. I have seen little discussion of the social theory behind the bubble. Ever stop to consider that this was an orchestrated middle class shakeout attempting to transfer heavy wealth from the baby boomers to their children? Rich, whities will get lots of gift money from Mom & Dad because 25 yr old Richie Jr. has to live in that $800,000 starter in Millburn. Upper middle class folks used to make $100,000 but now you have to get $200,000 from their employer. Solid middle class used to make $50,000 but now you need at least $100,000 to live in Elizabeth. Lower middle trash now makes $50,000 or less and you are forced to live in Newark. There is a big, “white” parachute for lots of 20 – 30 somethings with money. Don’t discount its impact on your 50% price drop expectations especially in NYC-area. You really think people won’t buy homes until 2014? Please..America is addicted to home ownership, at any cost. Rich boomers will do anything to keep their kids/grandkids in a nice home inside a nice, safe white town. I’ve seen it happen a dozen times with people my age (early 30s buyers). Kids are inheriting their parent’s house or a huge chunk of money. This will float NJ around for years to come, perhaps even past the “imminent bust”.

  139. gary says:

    Transplant,

    Geez, they forgot to give you the handbook, too?

    “HEY GUYS, WHAT THE F*CK AM I PAYING YOU LOSERS FOR! YOU MISSED ANOTHER TRANSPLANT WHO DIDN’T GET THEIR PACKAGE! STUPID BAST*ARDS!

    My apologies.

    Best Regards,
    Gary

  140. transplant says:

    SS [145]:
    If you read carefully, I qualified my post pretty thoroughly. I was trying to avoid stating things in absolute terms or making blanket statements. What I’ve posted is simply my experiences here as an outsider. I’m not making things up.
    And my sister is pretty hot, but my other brother got to her first, sadly. ;)

  141. BC Bob says:

    Bystander,

    Wearing suspenders?

  142. chicagofinance says:

    Bystander Says:
    June 27th, 2007 at 2:19 pm

    I am not disagreeing with what you are saying. However, a shift in the economy and the availability of financing options will overwhelm the factor you are portraying.

  143. Mike NJ says:

    #141

    I could not agree more. The key to living in NJ is finding a nice town that is full of people NOT from NJ, like mine. Midwesterners all over the place (including my wife). Don’t even get me started on Long Island, where I am from. Then we have CT, filled with pompous sh*tbags. Now that I think of it, what the hell am I doing living up here? Oh well.

  144. chicagofinance says:

    transplant Says:
    June 27th, 2007 at 2:05 pm
    Response to John #99:
    I’m a transplant from the midwest to the NJ/NYC area. I’m educated and experienced in my field and I came here, yes, to take a high paying job.
    To be blunt, I would be hesitant to hire NJ/NY natives if I were running my own business.

    yo’ t: you find what you seek….and in your spare time…..go f#%$^ yourself…..just kidding……ever heard of confirmation bias?

  145. chicagofinance says:

    RE: bashing NYC-natives…….you provincial clowns don’t deserve to live here….if you don’t see the flaw in your thinking, then why don’t you telecommute from whence you came……

  146. SS says:

    Thanks – but I’m sure I’m not the only one who took it that way…

    One would think that 4 years of living here would indeed change this stereotype you have – not enhance it. The tri-state is a great place to live – probably the best this country has to offer.

  147. 3b says:

    #146 Much of what you say has benn said in a similar fashion before, at other times.

    To think that there are all these so called wealthy people out there just waiting to shower inheritances on all of their children, is a myth.

    There has been numerous articles detailing what sad shaope many of the boomers are in financially, so to think they will be giving this money away is a stretch.

    I am not saying there will nto be inheritances, just not the sums you seem to believe are/will being passed around.

  148. chicagofinance says:

    RE: taking to a realtor regarding rental properties and landlord expesnes.

    chi: I know this area is due for a reval, so XXX is going to have to eat the higher cost

    Real: Well, if their costs go up, they will have to bundle that item into the rent.

    chi: excuse me, why do I care what it costs the owner, the market for rentals is the market for rentals…..if they charge too much, we go elsewhere…..

    Real: ???

    Real: Well, anyway, given the amount of rent you are paying, for only #### you can look at buying XYZ.

    Chi: Do you here that?

    Real: no

    Chi: that’s the sound of my level of interest

  149. pesche22 says:

    we have a relief rally hov tol
    rallying

  150. john says:

    OK, Kentucky I am curious is after you and your wife move to NJ if you get divorced are you still brother and sister. Actually I have been to the blue grass state. Out in rural Kentucky we pulled over in my black friends Cadilac and the we wanted lunch the waitress refused to serve us three white people cause we had a black person with us. The rest of the trip my buddy had one of us white guys drive his car while he sat in the back to piss off you KKK loving Kentucky bigots. Great Racist State.

    Mr. Make Money your are a drain on society you add nothing to GDP.

    Mr. Bystander – yes 200K is the new 100K, pretty much this is the new salary I have to pay. As you can see house buyes in peek buying years can buy a lot and they are at the age they get the inhertance. So why not trade up?

    21-25 – total comp 75K
    25-30 – total comp 75k to 125k
    30-35 – total comp 125 to 225K
    35-40 – total comp 225k 300k
    40-45 – total comp 300k to 350k
    45-50 – total comp 225k 300k
    50-55 – total comp 125 to 225K
    55-60 – total comp 75k to 125k
    60-65 – total comp 75K
    65+ – minimun wage

  151. BC Bob says:

    Transfer of wealth will save this bust? Better chance of Corzine standing up to the unions.

  152. Doyle says:

    #144, #151

    So does that mean that all of your friends and extended family are “loud mouthed meat-heads”?

    Oh no wait, they’re the “exceptions”, right? They must be some of the “precious few” that Transplant has had the pleasure to meet…

  153. pesche22 says:

    bottom fishers on housing today
    watch the fed.,,, they have to print more
    money to keep it going

  154. chicagofinance says:

    I’ve lived in the midwest.

    If you ask, my take on midwesterners:
    1. vapid
    2. lazy
    3. insular

  155. New in Town says:

    146, 159

    Many boomers may not be able to source their progeny’s dreams:

    http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m4021/is_4_25/ai_100751507

  156. gary says:

    Good gracious, must certain individuals on this forum assiduously be ill-bred towards the perspicacious observations of those rooted in aptitude and suitability? It is unqualified drivel and absolute claptrap. Ugh!

  157. James Bednar says:

    Real: Well, anyway, given the amount of rent you are paying, for only #### you can look at buying XYZ.

    Just part of the pitch. As an agent, the difference in commission makes it worth asking the question. The worst outcome is usually a “no thanks”.

    From what I understand, this kind of pitch used to be very popular when FHA/VA loans made it possible for low income folks to get mortgages. Many “renters” could afford to buy with FHA/VA, they just didn’t know there it an option. Granted, this explanation only makes sense if your agent is old enough to have lived through this period. Otherwise it’s simply a matter of a larger commission.

    jb

  158. BC Bob says:

    pesche [161],

    Yeah we know. The trend is your friend. Didn’t you get wiped out after the last dead cat bounce.

  159. pesche22 says:

    you must be a complet moron.

    you make it going up and going down.

    i can read a chart

  160. BC Bob says:

    Chi [162],

    Not the farmer’s daughters.

  161. BC Bob says:

    “you make it going up and going down.”

    How does that work?

  162. Greg says:

    Renting will be more cost effective than owning for the forseeable future. BTW if u have NJ legal problem check out http://www.jerseylegalforums.com

  163. Mike NJ says:

    #160

    They certainly are, I should know!

    I was only being half serious and joking a bit. I would never live anywhere else than the east coast. I have lived in a few places over the country they were nice places but I always missed the tri-state area. If you did a study, could you find that we have a statistically greater population of loud mouth bastards? That is entirely possible. Is it worth it to put up with this in order to live in a place where generally speaking the schools are good, there are lots of great things to do and the opportunity is nearly unlimited….absolutely. I just spent a week in the midwest where my in-laws just built a monster of a home in the middle of corn fields and the sister in-law is about to do move into her McMansion for $385K that makes my home that costs twice as much look like a shoe box.

    You can’t have your cake and eat it too, as they say. We put up with a lot of crap to live here. There are plenty of annoying people, expensive homes/taxes, etc. Why in the world do we stay? I like it here, that is why. Annoying people and all.

  164. pesche22 says:

    come on now, it called short

  165. pesche22 says:

    puts as well, come on now you know that.
    all the answers are right here on this blog.

  166. BC Bob says:

    Pesche,

    Sorry. No knowledge of shorts or puts.

  167. Doyle says:

    #171

    Fair enough.

  168. njpatient says:

    What’s a “complet moron”?

    Pesche, I think you are the poet in residence here. I love the ersatz haiku at #161.

  169. make money says:

    “BC”

    “Renters are smarter than Make,”

    You’re right. I’m soo stupid. I create a perceived relationship with my tennants
    (custumers), I talk to them when i pick up the rent. They call me when they are a couple of days late. Most of them invite into their homes when I pick up rent. I have a special realtionship with one tennant in every building where for lowered rent they take out the garbage and maintain my property. When they pay cash I give them a discount. If they pay on time for New years I give them a substancial discount. They tell me that they are struggling with bills and I tell them the same. What this leads to is a long term happy tennant(customer). My tennant turnover is very low. My average tennant stays for 5 or 6 yrs with me or even until they themselves buy a house.
    This is my method. This is what I do. You guys can play monday morning quaterback all day long. Guess what I don’t care. Instead of criticizing you should pay attention and learn something. BC, I didn’t get to where I am by being stupid.

    John,
    ” Mr. Make Money your are a drain on society you add nothing to GDP.”

    I don’t know about the society part but as far as the GDP, what do you want from me?

    I’M RETIRED!

  170. pesche22 says:

    what do i know.,,

  171. pesche22 says:

    im a subprime renter.

  172. chicagofinance says:

    BC Bob Says:
    June 27th, 2007 at 2:56 pm
    Not the farmer’s daughters.

    BC Bob Says:
    June 27th, 2007 at 2:57 pm
    you make it going up and going down.

    How does that work?

    Bost: I think I follow……too bad they are corn-fed Mr. Wilson.

  173. chicagofinance says:

    grim: this article didn’t pique your interest?

    a good passage….[The vice president, Eric Hibbert, wrote a memo describing First Alliance as a financial “sweat shop” specializing in “high pressure sales for people who are in a weak state.” At First Alliance, he said, employees leave their “ethics at the door.”]

    LENDING A HAND
    How Wall Street Stoked The Mortgage Meltdown
    Lehman and Others Transformed the Market For Riskiest Borrowers
    By MICHAEL HUDSON
    June 27, 2007; Page A1

  174. JLB says:

    Chicfi and clot (you are the same person, right?) look on one hand you have these realtors say they will make you more money if they list versus FSBO and then on the other hand they promote that people use realtors for convenience. which is it? not to mention if we are talking convenience we certainly are not maximizing profits and are definitely as the homeowner leaving money on the table. Don’t tell me you don’t have an ego because when I gave my first hand experience of selling FSBO in this “challenged” market you immediately jumped on with your victim statements. Hmmm, I wonder why you didn’t congratulate me on my sale. Put your ego aside and serve your buyers and maybe you can put more money in your pocket and not just excuses.

  175. skep-tic says:

    I grew up in New England and I agree that people in the NYC-area tend to be more aggressive than other places.

    I am not sure that this is due to natives, however. I tend to think it is more that NYC draws every *sshole from around the world. People come here with the believe that they are finally free to act in ways that would be unacceptable where they came from (maybe it is because they don’t know people here or maybe because they think this is how people are supposed to act here). The natives I meet are relatively normal and friendly. Obviously, this is all just anecdotal

  176. dreamtheaterr says:

    Pesche, why do you get excited on every retracement in XHB? There was more money to be made on the way down.

    I didn’t do any trades, but seriously, a 2% pop today is peanuts in the larger scheme of things.

  177. Bystander says:

    What makes a 100% college cost increase over a 10 year period sustainable but a 100% home price increase over a 10 year period not sustainable?

    What is a theory on this because kids did not stop going to college and college costs are not coming down. I think it is practically an apples to apples comparison. Large loans and speculative investments..homes and college. Today, does the guy who went GWU paying $150K on student loans make more money than the guy from Rutgers who is paying $85K in loans.

  178. skep-tic says:

    I am curious as well about the reality of parents purchasing homes for their children. You do hear about it a lot and I personally know one couple whose parents did this, but I wonder how widespread it really is. To the extent it really is widespread, I wonder if it can mostly be explained as another wealth effect of high house prices (i.e., parents taking out HELOCs to give kids downpayments)

  179. 3b says:

    #170 Define forseeable future.

  180. pesche22 says:

    who’s excited focus not on xhb

  181. skep-tic says:

    #185

    Bystander– these college costs are not sustainable. There is quite simply a limit to how much students are able to borrow and most colleges do not have the resources to give massive financial aid. I do think you will see a large number of small libeal arts schools fold in the coming decades because of this (unless they get a handle on controlling costs)

  182. James Bednar says:

    I am curious as well about the reality of parents purchasing homes for their children.

    As curious as it is, I can’t believe this is anything new. The Bank of Mom and Dad was founded long, long ago.

    jb

  183. 3b says:

    #189 Agree, plus with loans people can put off paying them for years and years, as opposed to the monthly mtg. payment.

  184. john says:

    does the guy who went GWU paying $150K on student loans make more money than the guy from Rutgers who is paying $85K in loans.

    YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  185. James Bednar says:

    And to go one step further, we should probably consider sub-market rate person to person loans within ethnic communities or social groups.

    jb

  186. Jersey Phresh says:

    I’m buying a house in Millburn. Good idea or bad?

  187. 3b says:

    #185 NO!!!. Does the graduate from Harvard make more money than the graduate from RU? Probably, for now, but who knows.

    Although TIME magazine had a big story last year about the relevancy of the Ivies today.

    It turns out that most of the CEO’s of the Fortune 500 companies, are not Ivy League Graduates.

    Did it matter moore 2- or 30 years ago? Yes. Does it matter as much now, I do not think so.

    Is it worth it to pay 40K or more for a small Liberal Arts College in Penn, vs a good state school at 18 to 20K? I do no think so; not today.

  188. James Bednar says:

    I’m buying a house in Millburn. Good idea or bad?

    What do you think?

    jb

  189. make money says:

    JB,194

    I got a 60K loan from a family friend in the ethnic community in 1999. These loans do exist. However, with so much of income being devoted to housing people can’t save any money to pay back a private loan. This alone has minimized these transactions.

    MM

  190. make money says:

    #195

    Like everything else you get what you pay for. In a big state school you can’t get personal attention on anything. You’re alone and graduation rate for the SUNY is 32%. There is no grade inflation or retention culture. If you don’t make it as a student they don’t care as most of it’s funding comes from NYS.

    As far as starting salary is concerned the good schools win hands down and as far as career earnings are concerned that’s questionable.

  191. skep-tic says:

    I think one of the main reasons ranking like U.S. News upset so many colleges is because they sort of undermine the justification for paying the very high tuition that many of these schools charge. For example, I think it is very difficult for someone from PA to justify paying $40,000 annually for their kid to go to Franklin & Marshall, Dickinson, etc when Penn State is probably better and far cheaper. Outside of a general preference for smaller schools, the expense of many of the small private colleges is hard to justify.

    However, I think many people are aware of the relative selectivity of many schools and know that an Amherst or a Williams may be worth the extra money

  192. RentinginNJ says:

    Is it worth it to pay 40K or more for a small Liberal Arts College in Penn, vs a good state school at 18 to 20K? I do no think so; not today.

    I just talked my wife’s cousin out of going to Duke and instead go to Rutgers for pre-med.

    He was about to go over $100k in debt to for an undergrad education, whereas Rutgers was offering some nice scholarships (valedictorian & Hispanic) and his parents volunteered pick up the difference.

    I told him save his money for medical school. If he wants a big name school, spend it there. No one is going to care where you did your undergrad.

  193. BC Bob says:

    Bystander,

    Your college comparison is ludicrous.

    For 100 years, prior to 2001, homes increased at or near the rate of inflation. This abruptly changed from 2001-2006,80-100% gains during this time frame. Did college come into being in 2001? My alma mater was established in 1901. Why the great disconnect in house price appreciation comparing 1900-2000 and 2001-2006?

  194. JLB says:

    Phresh,
    Millburn is a great town with good restaurants, train to nyc, it’s own movie theatre and great schools. The town somehow manages to mix families and a younger culture very well. I think Millburn is a good buy! IMHO

  195. Bystander says:

    BC Bob,

    #201 – what? University of Richmond tuition increased 31% in one year. My rationalization is that boomer money (mixed with other market conditions) is causing crazy things to occur. Homes, colleges etc..people are willing to pay for it. Gasoline was .80 cents a gallon back in ’99 and now $2.50 is met with great joy. A house went for 500K in ’05, goes for $420K in ’08. That will be met with great joy. Still, the owner paid only $170 for it in ’01. My only point is that 50% reduction is a riduclous thought.

  196. James Bednar says:

    JLB,

    Where did you just buy (or sell) anyway? You mentioned “train town”, but didn’t give much more detail than that.

    jb

  197. 3b says:

    #203 The great joy was fed by ow rates and low lending standards, mixed in with fear and greed,and a sense of entitlement.

    I think this whole boomer and their money thing is myth for the most part.

  198. scribe says:

    BC,

    Make’s tenants can play him for at least 8 – 9 months in free rent, if they want to play “the game,” too.

    My landlord says the courts won’t even look at an eviction until the arrears are at least 6 months. And then the court process takes another few months, with plenty of opportunities for the tenant to get a stay if he or she can come up with a month or two.

  199. Bystander says:

    Subways are out in NYC – 4, 5, 6, E and V. Power outages.

  200. 3b says:

    #200 Exactly what I belive, 150k or more for a BA/BBA is not worth it IMHO.

  201. ADA says:

    RentinginNJ,

    I disagree; I come from a family of doctors and I can tell you that the medical school does care where you did your undergrad and I’m pretty sure there is a big difference between Duke and Rutgers.

    I told him save his money for medical school. If he wants a big name school, spend it there. No one is going to care where you did your undergrad.

  202. BC Bob says:

    “My only point is that 50% reduction is a riduclous thought.”

    Bystander,

    I’m not arguing the factors for what has occured. It very easy to look in the rear view mirror.

    I’m sure a 50% decline is ridiculous, to you. Did you honestly think after the 2000 recession and 9/11 that we would be up 80-100% by 2006? If not, why can’t you envision the retracement? We may/may not achieve that 50% decline. I’m in the 30-40% camp. IMO, that’s a given, by 2010-2012. That said, I hope that’s the only issue we need to tackle. Don’t bet on market conditions to support your position. If you do, you may want to be hedged. The worm is turning. Remember, the market giveth and just as easily taketh.

  203. Bystander says:

    #205 – Dad pays for $40K for a house in ’76. It is now worth $500K. The game now is how does capitalism strip him of this money? Playing to their poor children and grandchildren needs is a strong method. They have grandparents day at many Catholic schools now. Did you know that? They have by-passed the parents because the parents can barely afford the tuition. Pappy has got it and they know it.

  204. BC Bob says:

    Scribe [206],

    I agree.

    If my landlord told me he was raising my rent to ward off foreclosure, I would play that like a harp.

  205. RentinginNJ says:

    I’m pretty sure there is a big difference between Duke and Rutgers

    Rutgers isn’t Duke, but it’s a very respectable school. Although, I find its reputation gets better the farther you go from NJ. The science majors at Rutgers are very challenging. If you do well at Rutgers, I don’t see it as an impediment to getting into your choice of medical schools, save for maybe the top 1 or 2 schools in the country. My roommate at Rutgers was premed and went to John Hopkins.

    If money were no object, Duke would be my choice. But, is the valued added by attending Duke really worth $100k of debt?

    I told him save his money for medical school. If he wants a big name school, spend it there. No one is going to care where you did your undergrad.

    To clarify, I meant no one cares once you are a doctor. Medical schools will care, but again, I don’t see a Rutgers diploma holding anyone back to the extent that it’s worth $100k in debt.

  206. Bloodbath in Winter 2007 says:

    Thanks, JB. Central is far too much of a main road to even discuss the Caldwell place further.

    How about this one? Looks nice from the outside … cool looking backyard ….

    2404862

    with my luck, it’s probably on a main road

  207. RentinginNJ says:

    Bystander #203,

    It’s inflation.
    The official statistics are manipulated to make it appear as though inflation isn’t a problem, but it is.

    – Gas prices climbing too high, strip them out and call it “core inflation”
    – Food at the grocery store getting too expensive, strip it out too.
    – Rising home prices causing pesky inflationary pressure, create an “owner equivalent rent” statistic to give us the numbers we want to see
    – Throw in some electronics, which have always been deflationary, to keep price pressure low
    – Now throw in a bunch of imported consumer goods made with cheap labor by a country that manipulates its currency (i.e. China) to keep prices down

    Mix it together and everything looks fine.

    If you look at the “American made” components of inflation, education and health care, they are climbing above trend…but at least we can all buy cheap plasma tv’s!

  208. john says:

    Medical School is a waste of time, the pay is peanuts and malpractice and hours will kill you. Plus it is a crappy job for a women they beat you to death while you are pregant and you can’t take a few years off when you have kids as you have to keep up with the license etc. A dentist even make more than a doctor. Plus all that for a lousy 200-300K, I guess if you are ego driven and want the Dr. in front of your name it is worth it.

  209. Bystander says:

    #215 – Agreed. Reminds me of Carlin’s skit about the evolution of “shell-shock”. Change the words, lengthen the syllables and make it sound nice and pallatable for everyone.

  210. James Bednar says:

    grim: this article didn’t pique your interest?

    It did indeed, I’ll put it up a bit later this afternoon.

    jb

  211. BC Bob says:

    211,

    Better tell Pappy to watch the vix and credit/interest rates spreads. Pappy just may want to buy some vol. Pappy could have bought much,much cheaper vol in Dec 2006. Oh well, less $ for Pappy to pass on.

  212. ADA says:

    RentinginNJ,

    You’re right; if you do really really well at Rutgers you’ll probably get into the med school of your choice but you wont have to do nearly as well coming from Duke to get into the same med school.
    And your choices for the best residency programs, are heavily influenced by your med school. So I guess if you’re a top student at Rutgers 100K isnt worth it but if you’re not you might be better off at Duke.

  213. ADA says:

    “Medical School is a waste of time”

    You’re kidding right?
    So if you needed surgery you would prefer a doctor who didnt go to medical school?

  214. ADA says:

    “a lousy 200-300K,”
    you consider that “peanuts”?

    And FYI most doctors are in the profession for ego but because they want to help and make a difference in peoples lives.

  215. BC Bob says:

    “Medical School is a waste of time”

    ADA,

    He had to be kidding. It’s outlandish for someone to make a general statement like that.

  216. chicagofinance says:

    JLB Says:
    June 27th, 2007 at 3:29 pm
    Chicfi and clot (you are the same person, right?)

    JLB: I am not clot. I don’t wear tinted glasses and dye my chest hair. I also wear undershirts underneath my button down shirts. If I am not wearing a tie, then my shirts are buttoned all the way up except for the collar. The only jewelry I wear is a wedding band and a watch. I do not have a poorly executed combover.

  217. chicagofinance says:

    Also, I am named after a basketball player, not a golf shot.

  218. ADA says:

    “I don’t wear tinted glasses and dye my chest hair”

    LOL, funniest thing I’ve read all week.

  219. chicagofinance says:

    Yanni: from this article – I didn’t research it, but I assume the data was gather from an investor with an inside view, because I am unable to source such data.

    WSJ
    Better Ways To Measure Your Portfolio
    New Tools Let Investors Create
    Customized Benchmarks;
    Beyond the S&P 500 Index
    By ELEANOR LAISE
    June 27, 2007; Page D1

    [edit]
    Jim Pflugrath, a 49-year-old biochemist in The Woodlands, Texas, recently wanted to see how his diversified portfolio stacked up against some strong fund performers, so he assembled a custom benchmark made up of Dimensional Fund Advisors funds. By comparing his own holdings against the model portfolio, Mr. Pflugrath found he could have gotten better performance if he owned more small-cap value stocks. So in recent weeks, he started buying shares of WisdomTree International SmallCap Dividend ETF, which holds small-cap value stocks.

    [edit]

  220. chicagofinance says:

    By the way, early returns on this are shockingly “garbage” [use Marv Albert intonation].

    WisdomTree International SmallCap Dividend ETF

  221. hoodafa says:

    Subprime lending: Abuse as usual

    A consumer group charges that many subprime abuses continue to plague the lending industry despite the recent crisis.

    More at:

    http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/27/real_estate/subprime_abuses_may_persist/index.htm?cnn=yes

  222. skep-tic says:

    #224

    is there such a thing as a well executed combover?

    also, the picture would not be complete without a thin mustache

  223. Jersey Phresh says:

    jb, with regard to #196…

    it’s really hard to tell if it is a good move or not…do I let the prevailing market conditions influence my decision to move rather than the fact that as a newly married couple, it is time to take the next step in our lives? and also, millburn’s an awesome town with much to offer (although it lacks in diversity imo.) if I’m ready to sell in 7 years or so, I’d imagine that I’d be ok (as far as supporting the price paid for the home initially in 2007).

  224. Rich In NNJ says:

    ….Ridgewood townhouse (also listed as SFH). It’s a duplex.

    SLD ACKERMAN AVE $639,000 4/11/2006

    ACT ACKERMAN AVE $674,900 11/8/2006
    W-C ACKERMAN AVE $674,900 1/25/2007

    ACT ACKERMAN AVE $674,900 4/9/2007
    PCH ACKERMAN AVE $659,000 5/9/2007
    PCH ACKERMAN AVE $649,000 5/15/2007
    ACT* ACKERMAN AVE $649,000 5/22/2007
    ARR ACKERMAN AVE $649,000 5/23/2007
    PCH ACKERMAN AVE $639,000 6/12/2007
    PCH ACKERMAN AVE $619,000 6/23/2007

    ACT ACKERMAN AVE $619,000 6/27/2007

    But apparently the neighbor (and their agent) with the identical unit “next door” hasn’t been keeping up with the news let alone how their own neighbor has been chasing the market down since November…

    SLD ACKERMAN AVE $650,000 3/22/2006

    ACT ACKERMAN AVE $669,000 6/26/2007

  225. #233 Rich Can you tell me what has happened in River Ede and Oradell over the last couple of day. I have seen some listings disappear.

    Do not not know if the listings expired or of they went UC, or combination of both. Thanks in advance.

  226. #232 You could very well only be flat at best. Why the hurry in this environment?

  227. Rich In NNJ says:

    3B,

    I’m assuming you’re interested in SFH only due to previous inquiries.

    July 24 – 27:

    Withdrawn
    2718996 RVEDG $789,000 COL 7TH AVE

    Under Contract
    2711769 RVEDG $519,900 S/L CONTINENTAL AVE
    2724194 RVEDG $469,900 C/C LAKEVIEW ST

    Nothing Withdrawn, Expired or Under Contract for Oradell during that time period.

  228. Jersey Phresh says:

    Because the wife found a home that she really likes

  229. shopping around says:

    JB
    Can you tell me status / DOM for a house in Cedar Grove. I don’t have the MLS. The Address is 26 kroy Court, 07009.
    It was listed for a 599,000 with brand new kitchen . (it most recently sold in 2005 for 581,000).
    Thanks in advance

  230. James Bednar says:

    Jersey P,

    Nobody can give you any kind of comments based on the information (lack of, actually) you’ve provided.

    Want to know what we think of Millburn? Sure, nice place. But should you buy? As always, the devil is in the details.

    The deal could be “killer”, or you might be the sucker at the table.

    Lastly, I’d suggest you take anonymous advice with a grain of salt.

    jb

  231. James Bednar says:

    sa,

    14 days, it is currently under contract. List price is $599k.

    It was last sold in October of 2005 for $581k. Interesting, after paying commissions, fees, etc, the seller would be facing a loss.

    Remind me to look this one up in a few months, I’d like to know what it closed for.

    jb

  232. shopping around says:

    Thanks jb

  233. dreamtheaterr says:

    “So in recent weeks, he started buying shares of WisdomTree International SmallCap Dividend ETF, which holds small-cap value stocks.”

    Chifi, I would think it’s a good time to take some chips off the table and rebalance off small caps, especially international.

    I haven’t looked much into the WisdonTree offerings; I guess they looked good in backtesting and time will show the extent of tracking error against their benchmarks. But aren’t they pretty much executing a small and value tilt approach to their holdings by seeking out stocks with dividends and earnings?

  234. dreamtheaterr says:

    “john Says:
    June 27th, 2007 at 4:58 pm
    Medical School is a waste of time, the pay is peanuts and malpractice and hours will kill you.”

    Med school is a waste of time if you thought peddling in IT stocks during the dot-con boom, or being a mortgage broker until recently would also let you retire early.

    Being a doctor is still a very noble profession, is an occupation (at least most of the different streams) at minimal risk of being outsourced, and a practice you can continue doing into your twilight years.

  235. James Bednar says:

    Got to admit, I turned my back on the PhD-track because of the dot.com boom.

    jb

  236. Joeycasz says:

    If i have to see, hear or read:

    “historically low interest rates”

    One more time…

  237. Possiblebuyer says:

    #245 – JB, that was the BEST decision you ever made. It took me 12 years to finish my PhD (I had to work full-time during that period) and I don’t even use it. It’s not worth much (and no it’s not in the humanities.)

  238. Richard says:

    >>But then again Reechard has a better handle on the real-estate market than Bill Gross so I wouldn’t fuss too much on Bill’s view.

    bill has an ulterior motive in everything he says. but please go ahead and eat it up hook line and sinker. all i know is i made money and am making a bit more with the recent moves. sure i make wrong moves but this one i hit.

  239. BC Bob says:

    “Investors following the near-collapse of two hedge funds managed by Bear Stearns Cos. might be a little bit like a homeowner watching the house down the block catch fire.
    It is far enough away to think there’s no immediate threat – but you still need to care about what the embers could do to your roof. The worry is the same on Wall Street, where bankers are anxiously watching to see if the hemorrhaging at Bear Stearns will spread elsewhere”

    “This is an unfolding story,” said Dick Bove, an analyst with Punk Ziegel. “It might take months to see the effects on a whole range of areas. For banks, it means they’ll be less likely to write loans, borrowing costs go up, and ultimately stocks could fall. It’s like a wave crashing.”

    “It also could accelerate a push on Capitol Hill for stricter regulation of hedge and private equity funds. “If there’s a downturn for a group of hedge funds, then there could be dramatic effects for the markets in general,” Columbia’s Goldschmid said.”

    http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/investing/bal-bz.bearstearns27jun27,0,1923920.story?coll=bal-investing-headlines

  240. TJ says:

    I think the percentage of those graduating from private institutions vs. state schools have more successful careers and receive more compensation. Disclaimer: I did go to a top private Pennsylvania engineering school (Lehigh ’00) and I work and have worked for major consulting firms in the NY Metro area. The fact is most top companies in the country only recruit from top schools. These companies pay top salaries. I have yet to meet more than a handful of those who went to state schools at top companies. I believe there are multiple reasons for this. Top companies want to know that you went to “selective” schools (you can not get in just because you have the money). Usually those attended selective schools had a specific career path or goal in mind. The quality of a private vs. state school education may be equal, I have no way to compare, but the personal relationships and networks that are built between professors and students is much greater. Many of my friends went to state schools because they “had” to go to college. They did not know what they wanted and did not have the drive I possessed. The good percentage also dropped out. The majority of my peers at college and those who I work with that went to private colleges are driven individuals who, in return, are better financially compensated. By the way, I start Wharton in the fall, is that a bad choice or should I have signed up for the Georgian Court MBA program? Also, I have yet to buy a house even at the strong urging of my “buy now state school drop-out, friend of the family, economics preaching” Realtor, my parents and sister (RU alumni) who still can’t believe the price of their house is falling. I guess they don’t teach economic fundamentals in state schools. I mean median salary vs. median home price; you can not get more fundamental than that.

  241. Possiblebuyer says:

    #250 – TJ – but the era of being able to work at a well-paying job with *just* a college degree is over for the most part (with some exceptions). Most people go on to graduate or professional school to make money. So now it makes little difference where you got your BA, and almost everything depends on your GPA and test scores to get into these grad schools. In my opinion, money is much better spent on grad school than undergrad.

  242. Come on Fall '08! says:

    #112

    Reminds me of the “Fairness Doctrine”.

    I think it is a particularly scary time for this country when Americans’ right to free speech is being challenged, but illegal immigrants may be granted amnesty.

  243. chicagofinance says:

    TJ: Wharton is garbage. Go to a real finance school for an MBA.

  244. chicagofinance says:

    dreamtheaterr Says:
    June 27th, 2007 at 8:21 pm
    Being a doctor is still a very noble profession, is an occupation (at least most of the different streams) at minimal risk of being outsourced, and a practice you can continue doing into your twilight years.

    Yan: The problem with being a doctor is that you have to deal with other doctors. Some are my clients and can we say “G-d complex”. Just because you understand the physiological reasons that I have a rash on my weenie doesn’t mean that you are an expert in finance…..oh, I forgot, you are G-d.

  245. chicagofinance says:

    dreamtheaterr Says:
    June 27th, 2007 at 8:15 pm
    “So in recent weeks, he started buying shares of WisdomTree International SmallCap Dividend ETF, which holds small-cap value stocks.”

    Chifi, I would think it’s a good time to take some chips off the table and rebalance off small caps, especially international.

    I haven’t looked much into the WisdonTree offerings; I guess they looked good in backtesting and time will show the extent of tracking error against their benchmarks. But aren’t they pretty much executing a small and value tilt approach to their holdings by seeking out stocks with dividends and earnings?

    Yan: I haven’t really paid attention to them. All I did was look up this particular ETF in the Morningstar database [since it was quoted in the article], and it was throttled by the Russell 2000 Index….granted 3 months+ of data is not a big deal, but we’re talking [from memory] WT = 3.42% versus Russell = 6+. I mean that is A LOT of difference.

  246. chicagofinance says:

    BTW – again just quoting the article….as you may have noted from prior postings in 2006 & 2007, I am overweighted large global

  247. chicagofinance says:

    Jersey Phresh Says:
    June 27th, 2007 at 7:03 pm
    Because the wife found a home that she really likes

    Phresh: You are so phucked.

  248. chicagofinance says:

    James Bednar Says:
    June 27th, 2007 at 8:30 pm
    Got to admit, I turned my back on the PhD-track because of the dot.com boom. jb

    grim: go to admit, I don’t care ;)

  249. chicagofinance says:

    James Bednar Says:
    June 27th, 2007 at 8:30 pm
    Got to admit, I turned my back on the PhD-track because of the dot.com boom. jb

    grim: got to admit, I don’t care ;)

  250. TJ says:

    Undergrad 6 years out making 135K. Not bad for a bachelor. And yes, if you want to make more, quicker, grad school is the way to go, but I know partners with BA’s making 250-400K, but they will never be top partners. Also (chicago) I did not say I am going to Wharton for finance, that would be Kellogg or Georgian Court.

    – T.J.

  251. TJ says:

    Chicago…

    Or maybe Yale, Columbia, Fuqua…I really can’t think of any others:)

  252. Clotpoll says:

    From (213)-

    “I’m pretty sure there is a big difference between Duke and Rutgers.”

    So am I. Rutgers is a fine school, populated with good kids.

    Duke, on the other hand, is filled with sociopaths, egghead misfits and other assorted antisocial head cases.

    Go Heels!

  253. TJ says:

    Tepper, Harvard, Ross, Sloan, Stanford, Haas…I feel like I am missing one…

  254. Clotpoll says:

    JLB (182)-

    ChiFi and I are not the same person. If you are happy, then I am happy. Congratulations on your sale.

    Realtors do not “promote” the idea that the #1 reason people use us is convenience. Realtors are actually trying to remedy this situation and are taking some halting steps toward becoming more value-added in our approach. I fear we’re years away from that, though. If you look at us as service providers (which is the best that many of us are able to aspire to), then those simple services are, indeed, pretty pricey. If all of us did put money in our clients’ pockets, our fees would be much more in line with results delivered.

    On the other hand, please spare me the concern stemming from your perception that I’m offering any sort of excuse for anything or that my ego is somehow costing me money. Perhaps it is uncomfortable for you to hear from an agent experienced in FSBOs to come here after the fact of your sale and suggest that your rosy little transaction might’ve featured your leaving a teensy bit of money on the table. But, what do I know? 120-140 transactions per year…years on end…a business built largely on doing turnaround jobs on dead FSBOs…

    Anyone can sell a house. You, me, a builder, a FSBO. If that’s all one wants out of the transaction- a sale- then I begrudge that to no one.

  255. Clotpoll says:

    ChiFi (224)-

    I ditched the tinted glasses years ago…right after I got out of the tote-the-note used car gig (LOL).

    Got me on the dyed chest hair, though. Har!

  256. Clotpoll says:

    ChiFi (255)-

    Ever see those Wisdom Tree ads on TV? I know Steinhardt was a big-time money manager, but Jeremy Siegel looks like the guy at Penn who runs the falafel stand next to Franklin Field. I’m not trusting some Ivy-league brainiac to pick stocks for me (even if the picking is limited to a weighted index).

  257. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll Says:
    June 27th, 2007 at 10:46 pm
    ChiFi (255)-
    ….Jeremy Siegel looks like the guy at Penn who runs the falafel stand next to Franklin Field.

    Hilarious. Are you sure he doesn’t make the sausage and peppers in one of those trucks on Spruce in West Phiily :)

  258. PeaceNow says:

    TJ—I completely agree with your small, private school post. I went to one, and the education and experience I got there were much better for my field than anything I could’ve gotten at at big state school (or even at a more prestigious private institution…well, with the exception of, say, Harvard or Yale).

    But come on, people. Must our only life and career goals be about money? I admit it’s important, and I’m happy that I have some, but making money was never my goal.

  259. syncmaster says:

    Rutgers gave me a great education (Computer Sci.). I still use one of my textbooks as a work reference on an almost weekly basis (TCP/IP Illustrated). RU Career Services arranged the events that ended with me getting my first internship and first real job.

    Hmm I should really make another donation, it’s been a few years.

    RU RULEZZ!

  260. Lincoln78 says:

    DREW (30)
    —any one from sparta? I’ve lived in Bergen County for 30 years, looking for more open space, heard sparta is perfect. 45 miles to NYC and very open.—

    I grew up in Sparta and my parents still live there. It was/is a nice town to grow up in. I describe it as a hub and spoke town, with winterized summer houses on the lake and million dollar home developments sprouting off of it.

    There is a good amount of land out there, but here are some basic points to keep in mind about it:

    – VERY difficult commute to NYC. Think 2 or so hours door to door. Closest public transportation is Dover/Rockaway, and during rush hour the drive to there can take 30 minutes alone. Unless you have an odd hour commute to NYC (i.e. my dad worked on the early morning news at ABC), it’s really not feasible.

    – Schools have become way too overcrowded. For example, the new middle school (built 5-7 years ago) was over capacity before they even opened the doors. I hear they now have plans to demolish the high school and rebuild it.

    – There was always a cultural divide between the “haves” and “have nots” in the town. Sure, that can be said for every town, but I think the divide might be a bit more emphasized in Sparta.

    – Of course, they also claim to be a blue ribbon school. My education was good and a good number of my friends went Ivy league, scored 90+ percentile on tests and so on. That being said, it might have been more due to the competitive environment than the actual educational system. I worry about how the town is going to handle the overcrowding issue. It’s pretty bad.

    If you have specific questions, feel free to ask.

    Lincoln78

  261. Lincoln78 says:

    RE: State School / Private School debate

    I’m a proud Rutgers graduate, but the biggest difference I see is that at a smaller, private school, you will be helped along the way by deans and professors that will make sure you get on a good path. At Rutgers, you’ve got to fend for yourself. There’s no one there to hold your hand and help you through to graduation.

    At either a private small or large state school, your personal drive is what will make you successful. The main difference is the help you get along the way (well, that and the $100k price difference).

  262. TJ says:

    PeaceNow, I am holding back from making any Hippy Dippy, pie in the sky references based on your name, and I agree do with you that money shouldn’t be the only goal, but come on, you live in New Jersey and if you want the quality of life equal to anywhere else in the country you should be worried about money and getting paid well. I love my job a lot, but in the future I would like to be a great philantropist and I can’t see doing that with a wife, a few kids, retirment, college education for those kids all while not worrying about making more money. I have lived in Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas and now Honolulu, and besides Honolulu quality of life was so much better for me. I went out to eat every night at the best restaurants after working 12-14 hour days (In NJ its left overs or some crappy italian joint). I had a beautiful apartment, dry cleaning was dirt cheap, I got the best personal service at hair salons, shops, etc. You come back to NJ and that all changes. Crappy apartment, high insurance, piss poor service because every poor paying job is occupied by a punk teenager or a grumpy retiree trying to get by. Those jobs are people livelihood everywhere else in the country and they do it right. Alas, I digress. Basically, money comes with success unless you work for the government or for some enviromental group.

  263. TJ says:

    I kid when I knock Rutgers, since half of my family went there, but I do not see many state school graduates working at the major firms. Consulting, Management, IBanking, etc.

    SyncMaster – Are you still work with TCP/IP or the seven layers of the OSI model or are you just Layer 4 and below. I too was an Computer Engineer with IT minor, but if you want a career path to management success hop on the IT management train. Programming will lead you down a long painful road and you will soon be outsourced.

    I also suggest donating to a charity before your school. They get enough from the state and there are enough corrupt politicians siphoning from that pool of cash.

  264. TJ says:

    Oh…I am sure everyone is asleep. It is 7:27 PM in Honolulu.

    Also, I know about fendingfor yourself at school, I went through the Toms River School system. My wife, Basking Ridge. That is like private vs. public so I know how it is on some level. We compare our early educations, teachers, peers. It is quite the good laugh. I can’t believe I made it in the real world.

  265. john says:

    I ment from a financial standpoint “medical school is a complete waste of time and money” If you want to be a doctor be a doctor. Here is an example of a price comparision. Baurch which is 4k a year has a joint 5 year CPA/MBA program. They even hook you up with internships during it and place you afterwards, the internships pay 6k each summer so your cost of school is ZERO!!!! Then you get right to work at 22 as opposed to three to four years later as a doctor. The doctor losses four years pay, then the doctor has 200-300k in loans. The Baruch guy is on a fast track on Wall Street or Public Accounting and if he makes Partner or MD by 30 can be clearing 550K a year between 30 and 50 and then retire. Partners still have free medical for life and a pension that starts at 50, at WS you would have enough cash to pay your own Medical. While a Doctor has his hand up grannies ass in office with a row of Patents behind him you can be at a nice steak house with a cosmo or martini “closing a deal” or on a business trip to Palm Beach. Anything Medical related is a lot of hard work and if you love it you love it. But financially it makes no sense. All the doctors I know tell their kids stay the hell away from it.

  266. john says:

    FYI the WSJ said last week average KPMG partner makes 550K a year. Now in Idaho I guarantee it is a lot less so the guys in Silcon Valley, NY and San Fran are most likely making 700k!!!! Nice

    TJ Says:
    June 27th, 2007 at 10:14 pm
    Undergrad 6 years out making 135K. Not bad for a bachelor. And yes, if you want to make more, quicker, grad school is the way to go, but I know partners with BA’s making 250-400K, but they will never be top partners. Also (chicago) I did not say I am going to Wharton for finance, that would be Kellogg or Georgian Court.

  267. 3b says:

    3271 ANd that is great preparation for the real world, where nio body is going to hold your hand.

    Some of these kids have been so codddled, its sad to see them try and make it in the real wordl.

  268. 3b says:

    #215 TJ: You sound like a pompous twit.

  269. 3b says:

    Sorry should be #250 Sounds like a pompous twit.

  270. PeaceNow says:

    TJ–

    Thanks for commenting on my hippy dippy name. Apparently your education didn’t teach you not to judge a book by its cover.

    FYI, I managed to retire two years ago–at age 53–and I did it without ever making more than $50K a year during my working life, as Broadway stage manager, small business owner, paralegal, editor and advertising proofreader. I’ve also been quoted–twice–with photos in the NYTimes. Not too shabby, imho, for a hippy dippy pie-in-the-sky person, eh?

  271. rita says:

    what does imho mean?

  272. schabadoo says:

    In My Humble Opinion

  273. rita says:

    thanks

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