From Bloomberg:
Bear Stearns Meets Possums in Georgia as Foreclosures Increase
Only the possums are enjoying the backyard of 2035 Lilac Lane in Decatur, Georgia, where Wall Street titan Bear Stearns Cos. is just another homeowner by default.
“It’s a mess,” said Kiwanna Ford, 31, who grew up next door to the vacant brick ranch-style house four miles south of the DeKalb County Courthouse. Bear Stearns seized the property three months ago after Ford’s neighbor stopped making payments on his mortgage. “If we wanted to sell our house right now with that next door, it would hurt,” she said.
Bear Stearns, the second-biggest U.S. underwriter of mortgage-backed securities now reeling from the worst housing decline since the 1930s, never planned to take possession of the three-bedroom house. After selling the property last week, Bear Stearns said it still owns 18 houses in the Decatur area acquired since November. Citigroup Inc., Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch & Co., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are listed in public records as the owners of at least 35 homes in the suburb, where 19,000 people live seven miles east of downtown Atlanta.
As foreclosures climb, Wall Street’s lenders and investors are claiming a bigger chunk of Main Street. The value of U.S. homes held by commercial banks swelled 53 percent nationwide to $2.3 billion at the end of March, the highest since 1992, from $1.5 billion a year earlier, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
…
The dilemma facing banks is whether to pay maintenance costs or dump the properties at fire-sale prices, said Keith Gumbinger, vice president at HSH Associates, a mortgage research firm in Pompton Plains, New Jersey. Both options can reduce real estate values. Homes that sit vacant can become neighborhood eyesores, while rock-bottom sale prices drag down values of similar properties in the area, he said.“No lender wants to own real estate, but at the same time you can’t just unload these properties because you would send home prices into a freefall,” Gumbinger said.
…
The firm sold the Lilac Lane house on June 28 for $84,000, said Elisa Marks, a Bear Stearns spokeswoman. That’s about half the price paid two years ago. Other homes on the street sold this year for $85,000 to $185,000, according to public records.The house’s condition deteriorated while it was a rental property, Ford said. Being empty for six months only made it worse to the extent that possums had the run of the backyard, she said.
…
“It’s hurting values,” said Ford, interviewed June 24 outside the house.
…
Countrywide Financial Corp., the largest U.S. mortgage lender, said it had $110.1 million of foreclosed real estate at the end of March, quadruple the $27.4 million it held three months earlier. Calabasas, California-based Countrywide has acquired at least 21 homes in Decatur since November, according to public records.Prices are tumbling in the U.S. housing market as inventories grow. In the second quarter, the U.S. median home price probably dipped 2.4 percent from a year earlier, the fourth consecutive quarterly decline, according to the National Association of Realtors. Before the third quarter of 2006, prices hadn’t dropped since 1993.
…
“Dumping foreclosed properties back out on the market in a desperate manner actually worsens the situation because all your other borrowers, the ones who are paying their mortgages on time, are going to see their equity disappear as the fire-sale prices drag down everyone’s values,” HSH’s Gumbinger said.
From the WSJ:
Bear Stearns Investors
Await Tally on Losses
By E.S. BROWNING
July 2, 2007; Page C3
Investors in two Bear Stearns hedge funds will have to wait until as late as July 16 to learn how much money they have lost.
The Wall Street firm has had difficulty calculating the funds’ fair value, apparently because many of the mortgage-related securities they hold are thinly traded and the market for them has been volatile.
“In light of the Funds’ circumstances, this process is more time-consuming than in prior periods,” Bear’s asset-management arm said in a “Dear Investor” letter dated Friday. It told investors that net asset values as of May 31 would be calculated “on or before July 16,” and that it would make its best effort to calculate an estimate of the June 30 value of the two funds by the same time.
It “has determined not to release an estimated NAV in the interim,” Bear Stearns Asset Management Inc. said in the letter.
From the WSJ:
Why an Expected Rebound in Growth
Wouldn’t Be Without Risk
By MARK WHITEHOUSE
July 2, 2007; Page A2
Economic growth in the U.S. is likely to recover as the year goes on, but that might not be an entirely good thing, according to the latest Wall Street Journal survey of forecasters.
Having run a veritable gantlet of threats to its health, the nation’s economy is in a better place than it was just a few months ago. Forecasters, however, also see a mounting risk: Thanks to longer-term shifts in the U.S. and global economic landscapes, even a little growth could lead to a resurgence of inflation, which would be painful for American consumers and could cause the Federal Reserve to ride the brakes by keeping short-term interest rates higher.
…
With consumer spending holding up, a weaker dollar propelling U.S. exports and a pickup in production and investment, they expect real gross domestic product — a broad measure of economic activity, adjusted for inflation — to grow at an annualized rate of 2.6% in the second half of this year and 2.9% in 2008. That is down from 3.3% in 2006, but much better than the 0.7% pace of the first quarter of 2007.
In the consensus forecast, the moderate rate of growth will generate an average of almost 115,000 jobs a month over the next year. That wouldn’t be enough to keep the unemployment rate from rising slightly by November to 4.7% from the current 4.5%, after which it would hold steady through June 2008. Forecasters put the probability of a recession over the next 12 months at 23%, down from 27% six months ago.
…
In the survey, one in five forecasters saw a resurgence of inflation as the greatest risk facing the economy. That is more than twice the proportion who saw it as the No. 1 risk six months ago. As a result, they now see little chance that the Fed will lower its target for short-term interest rates from the current 5.25% by December. They do, however, lean toward a cut to 5% by June 2008. Six months ago, they were betting the Fed would cut rates to 4.75% by December.
A rarely seen bearish piece at RealtyTimes:
Alt-A Loan Defaults Yet To Peak
It’s not just the subprime stew that helped slide the housing market into a slough. Housing is also mired in a muskeg of failing “Alt-A” mortgages.
Suffering from the same untried underwriting and difficult to decipher disclosures that swamped subprime borrowers with foreclosures, “Alt-A” loans made in 2006 suffered 90-day or longer delinquency rates 2.5 times higher than those made in 2005 and 4 times higher than those in 2004, according to LoanPerformance data crunched by analysts at Standard and Poors.
From USA Today:
Vacant pools leave neighbors swimming in mosquitoes
A glut of vacant, unsold homes with swimming pools is contributing to a glut of mosquitoes in the West.
JB..not just in the west. An informal association of the menfolk in my neighborhood have banded together to maintain some pools.
We just can’t risk it with the West Nile around here and all the kids.
One guy dumps chlorine weekly, another two guys jump the fence after each rain storm and dump the water out of the cover.
No luck from health dept. and other public numbers, so that’s a small price to pay.
“It told investors that net asset values as of May 31 would be calculated “on or before July 16,” and that it would make its best effort to calculate an estimate of the June 30 value of the two funds by the same time.”
[1],
We are all cognizant of the fact that the herd who “bought” into this charade were clueless. However, we have taken quantum leaps in absurdity when Bear tells investors we’ll make a best effort calculation. Comforting? Reminds me of Robert Redford, All the President’s Men; What the F now. By the way, looking for a growth sector? Lawyers.
Performance seems to be improving. The admins were able to curb some of the traffic by blocking IPs. A very exciting start to the week.
jb
“Sorry for any slowdowns or unresponsive behavior. The network/server administrators tell me the site is currently being attacked.”
Maybe realtors should spend their time attacking delusional sellers.
We’re getting hit again.
jb
We will have a nice discussion topic if the admins can identify the Origination Network of the attack. :)
The majority seem to be coming from random IP addresses in the 64.37.120.0/24 subnet.
From what I can tell, that subnet belongs to a hosting company, Cybercon, Inc.
Cybercon does have a datacenter in Newark, unsure if that is the origin.
jb
JB,
Why would Bloomberg want to attack you?
Are you also thinking of a third party run for President?
I like the article about the mosquitoes. I think private swimming pools in deserts should be banned. What a waste of water and they atrract black widows, mosquitoes and other critters. Not opposed to community, Y, and township pools though.
Do you think dirty, abandoned pools will help or hurt property values? I can just see it now, 4bd 2.5 bth 2 car garage with own, private, artificial swamp next door for 10% off 2005 prices. What a deal!!!
“Bear Stearns took possession of the three-bedroom Lilac Lane house for $76,500 on March 6, according to the foreclosure deed. The owner who defaulted had purchased the house in April 2005 for $160,000 using a subprime loan that required no money down. He had been renting it out, according to the neighbor…”
Ah, a real estate “investor.”
Note: Sorry for any slowdowns or unresponsive behavior. The network/server administrators tell me the site is currently under attack.
We seem to be back to normal, hats off the the techs at the hosting company. Those guys are worth every penny.
jb
Re post 5:
Pat,
It’s always a good idea to fight against mosquitoes, but I wouldn’t be overly concerned about West Nile, it’s just not that much of a threat to humans.
Now if you’re concerned about crows….
“I can just see it now, 4bd 2.5 bth 2 car garage with own, private, artificial swamp next door for 10% off 2005 prices.”
Bairen #13, last month I looked at a property and a star struck potential buyer who was also looking at the house described the fetid, mosquito-laden, 1-acre swamp on the adjacent property to her husband on the cell phone thusly:
“It even has a cute pond next door!”
An aspiring Greater Fool if there ever was one.
Hoe y’all had good weekend. Read a good quote today morning.
“No one means all he says, and yet very few say all they mean, for words are slippery and thought is viscous.
– Henry Adams”
So, where should we put the opinions on this board? Do folks really mean what they post?
Off topic, but worth the read. I was surprised that this is the first time I’ve ever heard this.
Thousands of rubber ducks to land on British shores after 15 year journey
They were toys destined only to bob up and down in nothing bigger than a child’s bath – but so far they have floated halfway around the world.
The armada of 29,000 plastic yellow ducks, blue turtles and green frogs broke free from a cargo ship 15 years ago.
Since then they have travelled 17,000 miles, floating over the site where the Titanic sank, landing in Hawaii and even spending years frozen in an Arctic ice pack.
And now they are heading straight for Britain. At some point this summer they are expected to be spotted on beaches in South-West England.
While the ducks are undoubtedly a loss to the bath-time fun of thousands of children, their adventures at sea have proved an innvaluable aid to science.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. June ISM manufacturing index 56.0% vs 55.0% in May
U.S. June ISM manufacturing index above 55.1% consensus
BC Bob #8
LOL!! Amen to that!
Maybe this was posted before, but there are a bunch of PDF and PPT files posted by the NAR chimps over at http://www.realtor.org/research.nsf/pages/presentations_use
About 4 or 5 presentations to peruse through.
There’s a cape for sale on Kingwood Dr. in Little Falls, I think it’s listed under Coldwell. Sorry I don’t have the address. Could you guys pull up the info on this one for me? Thanks in advance.
From Asia RE news. But I found this observation very interesting.
“It’s funny but we in the property industry can always predict when the market will turn up, but we can never say when it will turn down,” he said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSSP21327920070627?pageNumber=4
UnRealtor #17
So many Greater fools. I looked at a townhouse development years ago with the townhouse described as having a “pond view”. i thought that sounds nice. Turns out the “pond” was the rainwater runoff pool for the complex. Must have a lovely aroma in july.
From Marketwatch:
No Trump Entertainment deal; shares plunge
Shares of Trump Entertainment Resorts Inc. fell Monday, giving up as much as 17% after the beleaguered gambling company said discussions with prospective acquirers have ended with no buyer in sight.
Atlantic City-based Trump Entertainment said that its board concluded, with the help of Merrill Lynch, that “none of the indications of interest it’s received to date represented or was likely to lead to a deal in the best interests of the company.”
Meanwhile, “previous discussions with prospective acquirers of the company have concluded, and there are currently no ongoing discussions,” Trump Entertainment said.
#19- JB- that made me grin today! Cute story!
In related news, a friend who’s been listed for about two months sold $1,500 over list (as there were two bidders). Her neighbor did FSBO & sold in four days. So ???? get in before school starts push? (zip: 07871)
Loved the ducks lost at sea story.
From Reuters:
Benchmark subprime ABX indexes plunge to new lows
Benchmark subprime mortgage ABX indexes fell to fresh record lows in nervous trading on Monday, as concerns mounted over rapidly deteriorating subprime loans made last year, traders said.
“It’s another big selling wave. There’s really no new information. The repricing in the index is more sentiment driven,” said one ABX trader.
…
ABX, used by investors to hedge their subprime mortgage exposure, hit fresh intraday lows on Monday. The ABX 07-1 “BBB-” index, which is tied to subprime mortgage loans made in last year’s second half, fell to 53.16, below its record 54.54 record low close on Friday. The index has tumbled 43 percent since January.
The ABX 06-2 “BBB-” series, which references loans made in last year’s first half, also fell to a record low 59 bid, after hitting a low of 60.84 on Friday. The index has fallen 38 percent this year.
“Bear Stearns seized the property three months ago after Ford’s neighbor stopped making payments on his mortgage”.
I love the use of the word, SEIZED” This was a zero down property where the “owner” bought it and rented it out and pocketed the rental payments without making the mortgage payments.
The house was already Bears Property and the guy who took the mortgage out never lived there. So who did they SIEZE if from. they make it sound like they are kicking old ladies out of the homes they raised their kids in!!!.
Not really related, but kind of:
Got married recently, and was wondering about taxes for 2008. How hard will you get zapped by the IRS for being married and not being home owners? Is there a zapping at all?
We’ve got the money ready, we’re just waiting for housing prices to come down this winter.
Probably a question for the tax guy, but figured I’d come here with it first.
http://bp2.blogger.com/_DfVzTzSWk6o/RofEE7PyCnI/AAAAAAAABJs/CAK8uOwbPhM/s1600-h/fraud0002.jpg?ref=patrick.net
this is a good diagram
FSBO vs. Realtor:
Original FSBO listing is still available here:
http://4thishouse.com/universal_i1/view_listing.php?l=2624
Original asking was in excess of $700k, reduced after many months to $659k.
Sellers rejected a bid in the high $500s saying they already had an offer “in excess of $600k”
Sellers subsequently hired a Realtor.
Sale recently closed for $620.
Let’s be really generous and assume the agents/brokers earned a 5% fee.
$620k less $31k (agent/broker fee) = $589k.
Had they sold as an FSBO, they would have netted AT LEAST $11k more in cash. But I guess they can say the home was “worth” more by using a Realtor.
$11k seems like a lot of money to pay to hold one’s head high. I thought FSBOs always left money on the table. I guess this one got it in reverse.
I am gonna say they could have done better going forward with the FSBO sale. Others will say that they must not have had a good Realtor or some other excuse.
Also, someone a few days ago was complaining that someone said there was a study that showed that Realtors did not get a higher price for their clients than homeowners selling FSBO. I am posting a link to that study in the next post.
The Relative Performance of Real Estate Marketing Platforms: MLS versus FSBOMadison.com
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/business/20070608RealEstateMarketingStudy.pdf
First of all who said owning is good for taxes? Half the owners I know are in so deep they both don’t max their 401Ks,IRAS, FSAa, 529s. Think about it for example you and your wife can put 31K a year in your 401k which is an above the line deduction. The mortgage is just a below the line deduction that may have RE taxes you can’t write off if in AMT. Also you have a boat load of interest to pay which at best you get back 40 cents on the dollar. Now if the place is a money pit or housing falls further you are even more out of luck. Also what per cent are you puting down? I would not recommend you take a mortagage out that can’t be handled on one income. You can never count on two incomes. That said I am planning on starting house hunting for more space in the winter of 2008/2009 at most I want a 200K to 250K mortgage so if I want a million dollar home I need around 800K cash to do it. Just cause you have a big income does not mean you will continue to have a big income so I am taking a mortgage I can support on 80% of my current income and assuming my wife does not work ever. That is pretty much what everyone should do, but does not.
Also there is marriage plus for DINKS, you get double the 401k and FSA contribution then us stay at home wife guys and your wife can write off day care and summer camp which I can’t!! HELL if your mother in law does any free babysitting while your wife works you can write off your mothers day gift as well as round trip transportation for the ride over there!!!
Got married recently, and was wondering about taxes for 2008. How hard will you get zapped by the IRS for being married and not being home owners? Is there a zapping at all?
FSBO – Funny how realtors don’t track their listings that expire unsold that are then sold by FSBO. Or when they have agreements if owner does get a direct offer to buy house they still have to offer them commissions. For instance my listing exprired unsold and we tried a one day FSBO before re-lising and sold for 55K more than the highest realtor offer in one day.
congrats john, you made it for more than 5 minutes without someone informing you how much money you left on the table…
all excellent points, john. we are thinking exactly like you. we make a good salary combined, but we anticipate kids in 3-4 years. So we’re buying today what we can pay on one salary then.
so we’re aiming for a max of spending prob $400k. we are considering putting 30% down, but more likely will just put 20% down and pay more on principal as we go now.
i have been toying with the idea of going to 450k, but i remain hopefully that houses on the market for 500-550k now will be down to the 400k range this winter. (And if asking prices are dropping 8-10k per month, it’s totally possible.)
Seneca #33, you should watch “Bought & Sold” on HGTV each Sunday at 10:00PM.
The show follows realtors in Montclair, Summit, Millburn, West Orange, etc.
Last night they had a couple selling a 2-bedroom condo ($600K), and they were willing to give the buyers all the furniture in the place, if the buyer would just pay full asking price.
It’s some irrational, delusional attachment to the seller’s perceived cash in of “X amount.” Bizarre.
Two offers fell apart, the 3rd told them to keep their furniture, and bought for less that the first offer.
Greed is a close cousin to stupidity.
Some new talk from Mr. Falafel on the impact of long-term interest rates in his latest column on Yahoo is at http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/futureinvest/37914
He mentions Real estate falls between stocks and bonds. The rise in interest rates increases the cap rate, which is the name given to the rate at which future rental income is discounted and this lowers real estate prices. But a stronger economy allows for higher rents, particularly for commercial and industrial real estate, which partially offsets the rise in the cap rate.
For most real estate it is unlikely that the rise in future rents will completely offset the increase in the interest, so I expect the price of most real estate to continue to fall. This is particularly true of residential real estate in which the feedback from a stronger economy to higher rental rates is quite weak.
Finally we should talk about the risk premium, a component of the discount rate for real estate and especially stocks.
Stronger growth usually lowers risk premiums since higher profits mean better interest coverage on borrowed funds. But higher interest rates can be very burdensome for firms that are highly leveraged, such as real estate. That is why we are seeing the prospects for this sector continue to dim. If a real estate slowdown spills over into the rest of the economy, risk premiums could go up everywhere, driving down stock and risky bond prices.
“For instance my listing exprired unsold and we tried a one day FSBO before re-lising and sold for 55K more than the highest realtor offer in one day.”
John, obviously you had dumb luck, as only a realtor™ can provide the professional marketing and expertise to properly sell your home.
Bloodbath in Winter 2007
And then you wake up.
OT, but for BCBob
Your thoughts on the dollar getting hammered today? Looks like the next wave of selling is starting?
dreamtheaterr
Why is he Mr. Falafel?
#42 MM Perhaps you are the one who neds top wake up. If prices can go up 20% in year, they can go down 20%.
They may be a period of flat prices for a year ot two, but prices can go down 20%.
I think after this dismal Spring/Summer selling season, we may be left with the serious sellers, who have to sell for what ever reason,and those that can slash prices, simply will.
Mr. UnRealtor, you have the best jokes, I love the plug for the realtor!!!!! Realtors really do smooth the process, unlike a regular con artist they lube you up before they let you have it!!!
Says:
July 2nd, 2007 at 1:03 pm
“For instance my listing exprired unsold and we tried a one day FSBO before re-lising and sold for 55K more than the highest realtor offer in one day.”
John, obviously you had dumb luck, as only a realtor™ can provide the professional marketing and expertise to properly sell your home.
make money – have you seen some of the other threads where readers with MLS access post price drops?
Over the weekend someone pointed to a house in Franklin Lakes (i believe) that opened at like $929k and dropped to like $575k. Some insane #’s like that.
Asking prices are falling fast. And everyone who doesn’t sell that needs to by this winter probably will go into panic mode.
Colleague at work looked at a house a few miles outside of Princeton this past weekend. The house was originally listed for $1.25m in late ’05. It was on/off the market as the owner moved to NC. Price is now down to $800k. Listing agent told him the seller would consider an offer in the $750s.
jb
We put an offer on a POS cape last week. Listed at $449K, offered $350K, they counter-offered at $430K. House has been on sale for a year and this was the first offer they had. Guess they’re not desperate to sell!!!
Seneca: Good compare of FSBO Vs Realtor.
I workd in past as Business Broker. In that business, many sellers negotiated, non-exclusive listing. In such an agreement, realtor gets commission only if he/she brings the buyer, but during the same time, the seller has flexibility to find buyer on his own. In such case, the seller has flexibility to do his own marketing, and if that works, either he keeps part of commission or transfers it to buyer.
I am not sure whether this is accepted in Residental broker business. But I can imagine if such flexibility is available, you would see Realtor really working hard to get buyer and making sure seller gets good price. IMO I would not mind giving realtor higher percentage commission in such case.
Maybe Clot can shed some light.
#44Pooch, am afraid you’ll have to redirect your question to Clotpoll!
From Reuters:
U.S. regulators stymie mortgage lenders again
For the second time in a year, U.S. banking regulators have rejected claims of big mortgage lenders, such as Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC.N: Quote, Profile , Research) and others, that tighter regulation of mortgage lending will hurt consumers.
Rising foreclosures following five heady years of mortgage lending prompted regulators to write guidelines they say will curb risky lending practices and protect consumers. The move followed last year’s clampdown on issuance of “exotic” mortgages, including interest-only loans.
The Federal Reserve and four other regulators on Friday did not bend to industry concerns that the guidance on subprime loans would stifle an industry already in the throes of crisis.
But with the lender-regulator stand-off now over, industry watchers say the regulatory zeal may worsen a housing slump deep into its second year.
JB – Why don’t some folks here want to concede that asking prices are falling fast? If you break it down, sellers are trimming 8k-10k per month off the asking price.
This may have worked … in the summer of 2006. But now you’re best bet is to do something drastic like chop off 100k if you NEED the sale. That will open some eyes and people will pounce.
If you’re just looking to cash out, you might as well take your home off the market.
SG #50,
An “exclusive agency” listing will allow a seller to sell on his/her own. Commissions due only if the agents bring a ready, willing, and able buyer. Not all too common since there is risk involved for the agency listing the property.
To give you an example of the frequency, there are only 71 MLS listed “exclusive agency” properties in Morris compared to 3,749 “exclusive right to sell” listings.
jb
A house in Cresskill was recently sold for about $3.8million. That house was first listed at $6.3 million in 2005, and the last asking price was $4.5mil before it was sold at $3.8. This is why I don’t pay attention to asking prices, or Jame’s Low Ball listings for that matter. All I care about is recently sold houses and their last two transaction prices.
JB: Thanks.
I think most sellers probably don’t even know such an option. For obvious reasons the broker would like “exclusive right to sell” listings.
On “exclusive agency”, what is the normal commission paid to buyer’s agent? Is it higher then traditional 2.5%?
Seneca, Unrealtor, John,
Love your posts today. We looked at an open house last year where the seller was also a realtor. The asking price was $150,000 higher than comparable homes in that neighborhood. I guess that was one FSBO who wasn’t going to leave money on the table. lol!
jb,
Please see my post #23.
Thanks.
DOS attack on this web-site??
Unbelievable !!
People are getting desperate. Like shutting down this web-site will stop the housing train-wreck !!
10-year is “almost” below 5%. rates should be on their way down.
“Got married recently, and was wondering about taxes for 2008. How hard will you get zapped by the IRS for being married and not being home owners? Is there a zapping at all?”
Depends on what you make. We got our a–es handed to us in taxes the first year we were married – I think we paid 12K extra. Despite the fact that we still don’t own (although we will come the end of July), the taxes owed have gotten progressively smaller – even though we make more now and are saddled with the AMT. I chalk it up to 401Ks and charitable deductions, but who knows. Maybe it’s just a good accountant.
JB – Why don’t some folks here want to concede that asking prices are falling fast?
I think it has more to do with the fact that most people don’t have access to underlying transaction data. Because most folks only have access to asking prices (Realtor.com, etc), they use that as a proxy for the market. Two issues with this, the first is that most homes sell for less than asking (and this percentage can vary dramatically), the second is that there is an enormous amount of overpriced, stale listings on the MLS. Most well priced homes will sell quickly. If you are not watching the MLS on a daily basis, it is very likely you’ll miss these. A well-priced home will be “on and gone” in a week.
jb
I read an interesting piece last week in the WSJ which mentioned how creditors who hold the upper trances are fighting against “mods” to sub prime mortgages as it only prolongs the inevitable pain of foreclosure and helps only the holders of the riskiest trances to get a few months of payments before the house is foreclosed.
http://njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2717204&id=999999
I think this house came on the market about 6 weeks ago… Started out at $749k. Quite an ambitious pricing. Quickly dropped to $719, then to $699, now down to $679. Admittedly, this was redone recently and is nicely finished inside and out. But it’s right in the middle of houses that look almost exactly the same… all about 35×140 lot sizes.
gary,
Damn, thought I responded to you, must have gotten lost in the shuffle this morning. Do you remember the number? There are 3 homes on that street and the only Coldwell listing is a contemporary.
15, 70, 157
jb
I saw “Maxed Out’ this weekend, after seeing it mentioned here.
Thought it was great, because it puts US credit/debt business in context.
An eye opener about all the scams that are out there, and the dire consequences for everyday people.
>>Let’s be really generous and assume the agents/brokers earned a 5% fee.
really generous? even the top tier brokers are doing 5% these days. you can get less with most others.
jb,
No problem… I think the address is 15.
MLS# 2364643
OLP: $589,900
LP: $579,900
DOM: 168
3/2 on a 90×125 lot
Listing has the taxes at $8,736
No prior sales history, could be the original owner.
jb
You can do an exclusive and still sell on your own, but then the agency won’t want to MLS it. Another problem is that you have buyer brokers lurking about. I had several buyer brokers show up unanounced at an open house and “claimed” to have ready to buy customers and they wanted 3% of my FSBO. I basically told them bring all their clients by the day after my open house and if they can beat the highest offer by 3% they can show it. Turns out none did and a few had no buyers but only wanted to trick me into signing a contract. To sell quick in a down market I would take the lowest asking price of a similar house in your neighbor hood and knock 6% off and sell it yourself and stick firm with the price. Most likely you will draw what few customers there are to your house and sell it quicker and at a better price than with a realtor but you have to give up keeping the realtor fee. If you are thinking the market is falling getting out quick is more important than the slow bleed of a bad market while watching the last few weeks of house season disappear.
jb,
Thank you so much! 168 days on the market, an obscure, awkward looking yard, small rooms and the place looks like a 1965 time capsule inside.
We saw this at an open house MONTHS ago. Obviously, they’re in no rush. This sucka’s gonna sit for a loooong time.
really generous? even the top tier brokers are doing 5% these days. you can get less with most others.
Five is the new six. If today’s data is representative of the market, 6% is just about as common as 4% and below. The vast majority of listings are sitting at 5%.
I need to rewrite my analytics routines to pull out average commission as well. It might be worth tracking the trend.
jb
JB
Exclusive agency is a mistake by the agent putting the info into the GSMLS, agents with more than 10 years experience still confuse exclusive agency w/an office exclusive and exclusive right to sell. A case of wrong box checked off.
KL
jb –
“If you are not watching the MLS on a daily basis, it is very likely you’ll miss these. A well-priced home will be “on and gone” in a week.”
I’d be really interested in seeing a sample of these. Not having MLS access it is really difficult to get a feel for what is happening with comps these days.
New piece of prime property just hit the market. There has got to be a hedgie somewhere just drooling all over this.
Any biters?
Bran Castle, one of Romania’s top tourist attractions and a must-see for fans of literature’s most famous vampire, is up for sale.
Those willing to brave a price tag that could exceed $100 million will get the keys to the castle that inspired settings in Bram Stoker’s “Dracula,” said Michael Gardner, chairman of Baytree Capital, the New York private-investment firm handling the sale.
The building in the Transylvanian region of Romania has become known throughout the world as Dracula’s Castle, and is currently being used as a museum, he said.
But Archduke Dominic Habsburg and family, the current owners of the property, aren’t looking for just any old investor to bite. The firm was brought on to not only sell the place, but to develop a plan for it as well, Gardner said.
#60 Richard: Its a little early for that call.
#44 – I had the same question.
I thought “Mr. Falafel” was Bill O’Reilly.
“#60 Richard: Its a little early for that call.”
3b,
Strictly a story of flight from risk and risk premiums, at this time. Thank you Bear/Cambridge and others, soon to be announced. Of more importance, spreads are widening and the liquidity flood is subsiding.
JB – Silly question, but the way you wrote that about the MLS, it makes me wonder … is it worth it to pay a realtor to watch the MLS? And even then … if you draw a firm line in the sand – say 500k … wouldn’t said realtor show a house that’s GREAT at 575k to someone else (or maybe a few people) before you?
Almost makes it sound like going out to get your real estate license may be worth it, JUST for the MLS factor.
Also, i have a relative who is a realtor in a different state. Would their MLS account work for me if they shared the user/password?
sorry – by ‘pay a realtor to watch mls’ i meant use a realtor to help you find a house
(we were going to go at it without one)
Mr Rich Dad/Poor Dad Fip Floper and Real estate “guru” Kiyosaki is now on record predicting a housing crash. Welcome to the club. He is even having a learning amex seminar on How to Profit from the Coming Real Estate Crash.
Just ask your underemployed local waiter or waitress or coat check girl to check MLSLI for you for an extra big tip!!!!
Also I bet Count Dracula can sell his Bran castle without a fee as many of his blood sucking relatives are realtors!!!
The CEO of ML, old Stanley O’Neal should have audited this subprime stuff before he bought it, smells like damage control to me!!!
Associate Auditor, Sub-Prime Mortgages
Location New York, NY, US
Organization Name Corporate Audit
Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) is one of the world’s leading financial management and advisory companies, with offices in 37 countries and total client assets of approximately $1.6 trillion. The Merrill Lynch Corporate Audit Department examines, evaluates, and reports on the adequacy of internal controls within Merrill Lynch & Co in order to contribute to the proper, efficient, and effective use of resources.
Job Responsibilities
Audits of recently acquired sub-prime mortgage loan origination and servicing entity. The successful candidate will work on the following projects which include, but are not limited to the following:
“If you break it down, sellers are trimming 8k-10k per month off the asking price.”
Not in Bergen County. Asking prices here only fall about $10k every 4 months.
#84, better unload that property quick!
[83],
Better off advertising for a distressed debt analyst?
“A well-priced home will be “on and gone” in a week.”
I disagree with this. That is a myth. The buyers in this market think that buying a house is some sort of game. They make appointments but never show up, they look at houses but have no interest in buying anything regardless of the price, they look at houses they can’t afford, or they do not have the resources to buy a house yet (translation: they have to sell their house first)
“#84, better unload that property quick!”
YAWN! I did this before so I have experience in taking 2 years to sell a home.
Though I don’t have access to MLS, Troll, I’m certain more than 1-2 people here can refute that.
Here’s a copy-paste of the Franklin Lakes house that was posted on another thread over the weekend:
Franklin Lakes
ACT PULIS AVE $924,900 4/22/2006
PCH PULIS AVE $849,900 5/4/2006
PCH PULIS AVE $699,900 6/17/2006
PCH PULIS AVE $724,900 7/10/2006
PCH PULIS AVE $649,900 7/22/2006
W-C PULIS AVE $649,900 10/2/2006
EXP PULIS AVE $649,900 1/1/2007
ACT PULIS AVE $599,900 2/1/2007
PCH PULIS AVE $579,900 4/5/2007
ACT* PULIS AVE $579,900 4/25/2007
U/C PULIS AVE $579,900 4/30/2007
SLD PULIS AVE $575,000 6/28/2007
That’s 349,000 of an asking price dip over a 14-month span. Or $25,000 a month. Fully realize it was overpriced, BUT even if you start at the $649,000 in 7/06, you’re still looking at 74,000 / 11 months = $6,700 a month.
#84 Nothing like a Bergen County wannabe. Only the powers at be do not consider Cliffside a Bergen County town.
You must learn the ways of Bergen county before you can offer sage advice.
Listen and learn baby robbin, they ye too shall be able to call yourself a son of Bergen County.
#88 Yeah but have you done it in 10? , because that is how long it is going to take, at the least.
“You must learn the ways of Bergen county before you can offer sage advice.”
Where do you live 3b? It sounds like you know everything about anyhting…..
Please tell us what town you live in 3b….
KL: Why you think Exclusive listing is mistake?
What are the downside of Exclusive listing?
Thx.
Grim (#75)
The last Habsburg prinz? Wait, you mean this guy?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYtOCP_01YQ&mode=related&search=
Donald,
Not in Bergen County. Asking prices here only fall about $10k every 4 months.
How do you come to this number?
I want to sell my condo in Bergen County. I can list for 330K. I don’t want to be a landlord or I could probably get $1700 a month for it.
I need an FSBO vs. Realtor scenario on $330K. We are not talking in the high figures so I am not sure whether a few more bucks and more aggravation for FSBO is worth it.
Thoughts?
Rich (re: #96) Do you even have to ask?
Hint: It rhymes with “up his arse.” Wait, scratch that thought: It IS “up his arse.”
I watch the MLS every other day. Prices have come down 10k a month on some homes, but, please, they were way overpriced to begin with. When a home is well priced, price drops are rare. I know of several homes that were put on the market and later withdrawn without a single price drop.
“I want to sell my condo in Bergen County.”
Sorry AdLady, but you don’t live in Bergen County. 3b thinks that we are Bergen County wannabees. 3b thinks that Fort Lee and Cliffside Park are extensions of Hudson County.
People are attacking this site? Who? NAR? Kannekt? Don’t get too comfy, they will probably try again.
James,
This may sound rhetorical however, why does the NAR not disclose sold home prices?
Is there anywhere, besides working with a Real Estate agent, where we can see this data?
“Is there anywhere, besides working with a Real Estate agent, where we can see this data?”
http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/prc6.cgi?&ms_user=monm&passwd=data&district=0906&srch_type=0&adv=0&out_type=2
Return of the troll, let the stupidity flow like only you can.
Thanks Robert.
Quite interesting.
I’ve seen 10% or more drops on asking prices along the train lines in Morris and Union counties since end of Feb. There are now POS ranches and capes being listed below 450k in Summit, and Chatham, back in feb those pos were being listed at 499. One is listed as walking distance to train in Summit city for 449. There are now split levels and colonials in Chatham for under 500k. If the trend continues this winter I might actually find a POS for under 400k in madison, chatham, or a colonial in New Providence and Berkely Heights.
This time the trend is your friend. If you are looking to buy and are willing to wait another 6 to 12 months.
Of course I could be wrong, but with offshoring and moving back office functions from New York to Ohio, Tampa, Buffalo and the massive wave of arms resetting, I’m willing to take a chance and wait. We live in the US, not SINGAPORE, so we have lots of places to move to without leaving the country if these high prices don’t fall. We will be seriously thinking of moving in the spring if prices don’t continue to drop.
“I have experience in taking 2 years to sell a home.”
Then by your own calculations in #84, you’re going to lose $60,000.
(That’s on top of the $96,000 you lost in realtor fees and opportunity costs as of today, so add another two years in lost opportunity costs, and you’re at or above a $200,000 loss.)
Don’t believe me? Talk to your accountant.
Donald,
So you should state that in your opinion “asking prices here only fall about $10k every 4 months.
Here are some facts using the first 10 of today’s price changes:
Average Monthly Asking Price Drop $11,297
Asking prices ranged from $399,000 – $1,150,000
(I did skip one, it would have made the $13,725. They dropped their asking price $17,308/month)
if you believe the drying liquidity story might be the last opportunity for a while to lock in an attractive 30-year fixed rate.
Lost opportunity costs? How did I lose in that way? I rented for 3 years and had my money in the bank. Guess what… I did not make any money. I do not buy stocks.. way too risky. I do not trust these slimey CEOs who put compnaies into bankruptcy so they can walk way with half the company’s assets.
Some fun GSMLS price reduction stats.
Across Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren Counties.
Price Reductions Today: 189
Price Reductions >= $10,000: 139
Median Price Reduction: $14,000
Average Price Reduction: $21,800
Smallest Price Reduction: $1
Largest Price Reduction: $250,000
Interesting article.
http://www.tpmcafe.com/blog/coffeehouse/2007/jul/02/predicting_with_a_handicap_why_are_economists_predictions_so_often_wrong
TPM is, hands down, the best stable of journos going. Period. I guess it’s up to those dirty, hippy libs seem to practice real journalism on their blogs. (Suck it, RedState/LGFers!)
3b isn’t telling us where he lives. Probabaly embarassed that he lives in Fairview.
Hey I am thinking of moving and here is where I was told to buy if I want a decent commute to the city, a reasonable price and a good train line. Are any of these towns better than the other? Taxes schools count too!
Bergen line: Ramsey, Allendale, Ho Ho Kus and Ridgewood.
The Pascak Valley line:Montvale, Park Ridge, Woodcliff Lake(a little expensive), Hillsdale, Westwood and Oradell.
The Montclair-Boonton line: Montclair, Mountain Ave, Upper Montclair, Watchung Ave, Walnut Ave, Glendridge
The M&E Gladstonde line: New Providence, Millburn, Maplewood, Orange (one part of Orange is nice not all of the Oranges)
I went and looked at a POS cape this weekend too. They were having an open house on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, so I went on Friday by myself and went back with the wife on Sunday.
Bottom line, a small home with one bathroom on a busy street and they want $499K. The agent tried to tell me that the home would move quickly at that price and I just had to laugh. The place would be a good bargain at $375K and I could see stretching to $425K if you really loved it, but nobody’s going to touch it at a half million.
I wrote about it on my new blog.
http://homeinbabylon.com
Robert Troll Says:
July 2nd, 2007 at 4:06 pm
Lost opportunity costs? How did I lose in that way? I rented for 3 years and had my money in the bank. Guess what… I did not make any money. I do not buy stocks.. way too risky. I do not trust these slimey CEOs who put compnaies into bankruptcy so they can walk way with half the company’s assets.
Like Bob Toll???
Why are you limiting yourself to the train line towns? There are lots of NICER towns with BETTER schools that have bus service to Port Authority.
“Like Bob Toll???”
Bob Toll made over $100 million last year. Who says that Toll is making any money????
I did a little of my own research:
This house on 1 Columbia Avenue in Cliffside Park was purchased for $2,025,000 last year. It is now on the market for $2,450,000.
http://njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2705532&id=999999
#113 Those that know me form the blog, know here I live. You will just have to figure it out, and watch my posts.
It is a prestigious minutes from NYC Blue Ribbon school town.
Seneca (33)-
C’mon…do you really think we’re all that dumb? THE FSBO COULDN’T SELL! From that point forward, everything you posit is pure speculation. “If” has no place in a discussion of facts. And, the fact is that in your example, the FSBO couldn’t achieve a sale.
Case closed.
Troll, how come when people present facts, you sidestep them as if you were Tiki Barber in his prime?
Face it man, you’re a fraud. Keep hanging onto hope that asking prices are sinking drastically. And this whole selling-your-house thing is complete BS – one day, you’ll hop on and say you made a profit because nobody can verify it. If you’re so confident, why not give JB or someone the MLS # so they can back up what you’re saying?
Because my guess is that 90% of the board thinks you’re full of it.
#109 Do not care about interest rates, much more concerned with the underlying value of the asset.
The fianncing mechanism is secondary to me.
YOU AIN’T SEEN THE PAIN YET GRUBBERS.
THE STARVING FRISKIE BUNCH ARE DESPERATE NOW.
IT’S PAYBACK TIME BABY!
HEHEHEHEHEHEHE
WAIT ‘TIL 2008. MASSIVE MISERY.
PRICE DECLINES ARE PICKING UP STEAM.
Bloodbath (Post 89)…
All you have to know about that house in Franklin Lakes is that the taxes are $5,811,. Bottom line, someone gave them really crappy comps on that property which looks like a POS. Prices have come down, but please don’t get peoples hopes up using that house as an example.
So why not tell me where you live 3b? I think you are full of it. You probabaly don’t even live in Bergen County. Rather than write “a prestigious minutes from NYC Blue Ribbon school town” it would have been faster just to write the name of town.
Can someone please tell me where 3b claims where he lives???
SG (50)-
It does exist in residential RE. It’s called “Exclusive Agency” (not to be confused with an exclusive listing). The seller retains the right to market on his own. If the seller draws his own offer, he owes the agent nothing.
I did tons of these the first 2-3 years of my career, and I still offer it to FSBOs (though I don’t work with many of them anymore). I never have a problem putting my money where my mouth is (unlike many of the hacks around here with nothing but inflated self-opinions, no RE experience and no skin in the game); offering a situation like this puts the client in a “no lose” position.
“Because my guess is that 90% of the board thinks you’re full of it.”
Bloodbath,
Too conservative of a %.
“If you’re so confident, why not give JB or someone the MLS # so they can back up what you’re saying?”
Oh, I am sorry. I did not know that everyhting I say has to be run through a virtual lie detetor machine…. Why don’t you give me your MLS#? Why don’t you give me your address????
3b thinks that Cliffside Park is a “fake” Bergen County town, but he probabaly couldn’t afford a new condo or McMansion here. Enjoy living in that cape. Better remember to bend your head so that you don’t hit the ceiling and get knocked out when you are in the attic bedroom.
#100 Its not what I think that matters.But that is what the native BC, and long time residents of BC think. Whether its right or wrong does not matter,that is the reality.
As far as schools nobody buys in Ft. Lee rr Cliffside for the schools, simple as that.
#53 bloodbath
“Why don’t some folks here want to concede that asking prices are falling fast?”
I think Business Week’s Peter Coy said it best in his recent headline: “Denial Ain’t Just a River in Egypt”
That article was about the Boston Consulting Group survey that showed 55% of Americans think their home would sell for more money now than it would have a year ago. I believe the same principle applies to those who think asking prices aren’t going down.
I don’t care at all about asking prices. I love Jim’s Lowball postings but only to ascertain what recent SALES prices are. The fact that some shmuck listed their house for $100k more than anyone was ever willing to pay and chipped $10k off the price for a year until it sold is an interesting study of seller neuorsis and that’s about it.
A year ago, debating whether you could make a bid on a house below its asking price was interesting, now its just fact. Most sellers are still not pricing below the latest comps.
The real debate at this time is whether today’s sale price is better or worse or the same as last year’s sale price. In the past month I have seen a few examples of prices still meeting, though not beating, peak prices. Few is the key word. There just aren’t many sales comps to review right now. Just lots of stale inventory.
SG & Clot,
I am saying when you see exclusive agency it is more than likely a mistake. I have seen agents in my office make this mistake repeatedly. It is a matter of checking off the wrong box.
KL
“#100 Its not what I think that matters.But that is what the native BC, and long time residents of BC think.”
Newsflash: Nobody cares about the long time residents of BC. Most of them are poor. The ones with the money are the NEW residents coming in from the city and other places. They are the ones buying McMansions and luxury condos.
Hmmm…nothing from Judicious today.
Guess he’s been buying REITs. I told him he had a nice little purchase window:
http://money.excite.com/jsp/qt/full.jsp?symbol_search_text=bxp%2Cvno%2Cct
Sucker probably shorted them at the open.
#134 If you say so my child.
Troll – I’m not the one on here talking out of his ass and bragging like I’m kind of big swingin’ dick.
I’m just a lowly renter, just got married, in my 20s, living in NY and looking to buy in Bergen County or maybe even Essex County when things bottom out this winter or after. We do well. We save. I prefer frugal, but friends call me ‘cheap.’
I got lucky flipping an out-of-state house. I’m just enjoying the banter, the guys who have access to MLS, and all the outstanding links that are provided. Mostly, I’m just trying to educate myself before jumping into a house purchase.
To back up my claim in $134, just look at the MASSIVE increase in Korean immigrants in Fort Lee, Palisades Park, and Cliffside Park. They have money so if the old time residents don’t want to pay $1.5 million for a home in Ft. Lee, the Koreans will.
Hey Judicious,
Nice little 9% dividend on CT, don’t you think?
Take that, wrap it in a T-Bill, and smoke it till you choke.
Why are you limiting yourself to the train line towns? There are lots of NICER towns with BETTER schools that have bus service to Port Authority.
Pleassse!!! Everyone I have ever worked with on Wall St from NJ who takes a BUS hates it. The damm tunnel is so packed on Fridays that at 5:30pm can take you 45 minutes to go from Wall Street to the other side of the tunnel, a total of one mile. So many people tell me that on Fridays they could get off the bus have dinner and get back on and only have to walk a block. The if you work late there is no bus you have to go to port, if it rains or snows the bus is late, if you have to leave early the bus is runs sporadic mid day. Two of my staff are moving to different towns in NJ to get away from the bus. Plus it is a career killer, running for the bus and being late everytime there is an accident or rain is going to cost you bucks come bonus time. A good train and short commute is worth 100K in price anyday of the week.
Richard#67
Like I said, I was being REALLY generous with the 5% assumption in anticipation of the counterargument from our Realtor friends.
I am not debating that it is easier to use a Realtor. It is! I just don’t think that for some people, it is worth the expense premium you pay. Every post about the advantages of going FSBO is met with a “how much money did you leave on the table” comment – a sophistic refutation at best.
Troll #117
what nice bus towns are there with better schools then the train ones in Morris/Union/Essex? need something within easy driving distance of Berkley Heights/New Providence for my wife’s commute.
Jamey #112, looks like those hippies aren’t very interested in the recent terrorist attacks on airports in Europe.
Perhaps they should rename to http://www.ostrich.com
Seems like there has been a burst of activity in the $600-$800 thousand range in the past few weeks, as least where I am looking in Somerset County. It seems like many properties either went under contract or into attorney review as the end of June approached. Do the statistics bear out my impression? Does anybody have any sense of whether Sellers are finally giving a little on prices or whether Buyers are offering more to be in place by the time school starts?
test
startingoverinNJ: There is some activity, but not too much. In the towns that I am following in somerset county, there were 86 listing removed, 72 new added. Many of these could be relisting.
Seneca (141)-
No more or less sophistic than playing the “if” and “assuming” game on transactions that never occurred.
At least when I ask someone how much money he left on the table, we’re talking about a closed transaction that can be comped.
starting over (144)-
Look at the inventory that’s still left for sale. Enough to choke a horse.
Those prices are coming down. Maybe not today, but they’re coming down.
clot (121) – YOU c’mon… Instead of taking 600k of my money 10 months ago, they settled for 589k of someone else’s money 10 days ago. There is no IF in the situation.
You have to be pretty darn narcissistic if you won’t concede that this is one fsbo that could have sold with higher net cash to the seller had they not been so greedy. My friend, this isn’t up for debate. They COULD have.
What exactly is your argument? That every fsbo is so greedy, they can only come to the conclusion that a RE agent will bring them a higher price and higher net cash in pocket?
Anybody got an address on this place in Paramus?
2711888
Doesn’t look like much, just curious about the #’s …
“what nice bus towns are there with better schools then the train ones in Morris/Union/Essex?”
I do not know about these counties. I only know about Bergen. In Bergen, I recommend Cresskill and Tenafly. There are other good towns, but these two are the best of the best.
Well, I am going to have my Brooklyn house appraised in the coming days. The house was bought in 1981 so I have no idea what it is worth. I can’t wait to find out. People tell me it is worth $900k, so we will just have to see.
#137, Bloodbath in Winter 2007:
Good luck to you. I’m in a similar situation as you are – looking to move out of NYC into the ‘burbs (pref. Essex Cty). The taxes in some of the towns are disgusting though – and for what!!! All I want is a nice updated home on a nice tree lined suburban street with a nice backyard and within walking distance to a railroad station that is a 35 minute ride to Penn Station. And taxes less than 10K. Is that so much to ask for???
“Is that so much to ask for???”
Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Exactly…I know anything like that will cost me my life savings. Too bad.
Hey guys, I was wondering if you could help me. I’ve called many agents inquiring about homes and for some reason they never return my calls or email me listings. I’ve been looking for a few years maybe there is a “list” they keep track of? Just curious, I would think realtors would be desperate these days.
ALPINE — Some of the most valuable real estate in North America — 63 acres of woods and meadows 20 minutes from the George Washington Bridge — is on sale starting today.
Richard Kurtz, owner of Englewood Cliffs-based Kamson Corp., is selling the land he purchased in Alpine and Demarest last January for $58 million. The property is known as the Frick Estate, after its late owner Henry Clay Frick II, grandson of steel magnate Henry Frick who founded the Frick Collection, a museum in Manhattan.
“I think it’s a wonderful project, and I’m very excited with it,” Kurtz said. “It’s been met favorably by both communities in Alpine and Demarest. We’re doing everything 100 percent correctly. It has to be – it has the Frick name in back of it. I even told the Frick daughters, right from the very beginning, that whatever we were going to do, we would do right, totally first class.”
Henry Clay Frick died unexpectedly in February. His former home, a 7,000-square-foot Colonial, as well as its adjacent carriage house, swimming pool, so-called swan pavilion and swan pond, and 15 acres of land, are listed today with an asking price of $49 million.
http://northjersey.com/page.php?qstr=eXJpcnk3ZjcxN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXkyMiZmZ2JlbDdmN3ZxZWVFRXl5NzE1OTA2MA==
“For those of you who thought that nobody is going to buy the $49 million house, you have been proved wrong:”
And how does that assist you in moving your overpriced, depreciating asset?
#137, Bloodbath in Winter 2007:
live in nyc,
I got lucky flipping an out-of-state house.(by lucky you mean your buyer was not you)
Expect to pay 400 this winter for a nice home BC in 500-550 range today(you could do it if it is overpriced but I don’t think thats what you want)
I think your timeline is off.
As Seneca stated nice homes still go at 2005 pricing in 2 weeks.
Totally OT-New bike
Just got me a Raleigh Passage 3.0 Hybrid and it rocks!
The most comfortable bike I’ve ever owned. Great suspension, smooth Shimano gear & shifter, soft spring-type gel seat. Easy on the tail bone and bun-bun. Tested a Fuji Crosstown, not as comfy.
I’ve no association with Raleigh, simply sharing.
re 119
1 Columbia seems to be in poor condition. I passed it a couple of weeks ago on my evening walk.
It is probably a tear-down, but is right on the cliff.
Kurtz is no dummy. $58m for 63 acres in Alpine ($920k/ac)? That property was a steal.
What is funny is that people were pointing to that sale as an indicator of strength in the Bergen market. Unfortunately, they all got the story wrong. They attributed the purchase to another fellow with the same name (Kurtz, the CEO of Advanced Photonics). It wasn’t until weeks later that the real “Kurtz” made his intentions clear, a massive subdivision.
If he can sell the 15ac Frick portion for $49m, that leaves 48 acres for Kurtz to subdivide at a cost of $9 million. Heck, at $3m a lot (low pricing), he’ll be clearing some $50m on the land alone. He could probably take half of that $49m figure and still take cash to the bank.
Kudos to Kurtz for finding a property that wasn’t being used for it’s “highest and best use”.
jb
#159 That is not what Seneca said, from my understanding of his/her post, not at all.
And there is no way that most houses are going at 2005 prices in 2 weeks, heck there is lots of inventory sitting at 2004 prices.
Regarding #162.
Even the WSJ got the buyer wrong. Sotheby’s issued a press release when the deal was inked, but only mentioned Kurtz by name. I’m guessing someone Google’d the name, and when a CEO popped up, they thought “it must be him!”.
New Jersey Estate Tops ’06 List
Of Most-Expensive Homes Sold
The 63-acre estate, located five miles from Manhattan, sold for $58 million and was bought by Advanced Photonix CEO Richard Kurtz, according to a news release.
Oops!
jb
#153 You will get what you are looking for, without the low taxes however. That is a fact of life now in NJ.
But prices are declining and will continue to decline;just be patient.
Do not pay attention to a poster recently from NY who now lives in Cliffside, and claims to know and understand the North Jersey market.
Best of the best in Bergen would be Franklin Lakes/Wyckoff, and Allendale/Saddle River. Those that know, know. Others are recent transplants who now live in Cliffside.
Those towns he mentions are excellent, but best of the best are the above 4 mentioned.
From Bloomberg:
United Capital’s Devaney Halts Redemptions on Funds
United Capital Markets Holdings Inc., a brokerage run by John Devaney, halted redemptions on some of its hedge funds that invest in subprime-mortgage bonds.
The funds are within the company’s Horizon Strategy group, including the Horizon ABS Fund LP, said Michael Gregory, a spokesman for the Key Biscayne, Florida-based firm.
“We did that as a defensive move because we had an unusually high number of redemption requests and we didn’t want to be a forced seller in this market,” Gregory said in a telephone interview. One of the redemption requests was from an investor who had put up about 25 percent of the funds’ money.
3b 163
Seneca quote
of prices still meeting, though not beating, peak prices.
Also , I ve seen homes list slightly above there 2005 pricing and go UC in a town where using june sales numbers the median % off OLP was 2.4% less for homes listed under 20 days. I seeen one sell slightly above its 2005 price.
I understand if they paid realtor cost the lost money but the point is 2005 price.
I don’t think home prices are going up, but they seem to be quite sticky at least in the less than 500000 range.
“redemption requests”
[167].
Not programmed into the model? Again, be careful where you enter. Watch out for hidden/obscure, one way signs.
Allow me to quote me: “In the past month I have seen a few examples of prices still meeting, though not beating, peak prices. Few is the key word. There just aren’t many sales comps to review right now. Just lots of stale inventory.”
Months ago I posted about a sale in Westfield that was less than the 2004 comp sales price. James researched the sale and was able to confirm. I don’t have enough access to data to come up with lots of year over year comps like that. Just got lucky as it was a house I was following and I could compare it to my friends home in Westfield two doors down, same style, etc.
Other than that, I have seen most homes I am following sit, and sit, and sit. Homeowners move out, the house still sits. The few homes that have sold, they are going for early to mid 2005 prices. So, on a real dollar basis, adjusted for inflation, home prices are down based on what I am seeing. They are flat in nominal terms. I think they will go lower and I think it will happen about as quickly as the grass grows or a watched pot boils.
For bergen’s best of the best, what are you basing these ‘rankings’ on?
Any reason Glen Rock and Ridgewood are not included? Just curious based on schooling, proximity to NYC for work, median income, etc.
Since someone else brought up bikes, I have a question for any and all bikers: Why is it so hard to find weight specs on bikes? I’d like to replace my bike with something lighter but bike manufacturers tend to not publish frame weights. Any suggestions?
Hi –
Haven’t posted for a while as I’m out of NJ (and the RE game) until August, but I saw this in another discussion (would rather not say where, to protect the innocent) and had to share. I know you all will appreciate this one:
“Hi everyone,
I think we need a new mortgage rep. We both have really good credit etc. however she quoted us an interest rate of 10%. I can’t believe that that’s the lowest interest rate we qualify for. And that’s for an interest only rate! If you are a mortgage rep. or if you have/had a good mortgage rep. please recommend him/her to us. Thanks.”
Robert Troll Says:
July 2nd, 2007 at 4:40 pm
I did a little of my own research:
This house on 1 Columbia Avenue in Cliffside Park was purchased for $2,025,000 last year. It is now on the market for $2,450,000.
http://njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2705532&id=999999
I show no purchase of this home in the NJMLS or tax records.
It was placed on the market in Feb, off in Mar and back on in May.
starting to think some blokes on here go by several names.
My BS detector is going off on some posts of late.
SAS
“Any reason Glen Rock and Ridgewood are not included? Just curious based on schooling, proximity to NYC for work, median income, etc.”
Yes. Tenfaly was ranked as the #1 high school in Bergen County by NJ Monthly while Cresskill was the only Bergen high school on Newsweek’s list of the top 100 high schools in the United States. If you do not need good schools, then maybe the towns you mention are better alternatives. But for those who do need good schools, I would not look outside of Cresskill and Tenafly. Tenafly was also the only school in NJ to recieve the Blue Ribbon award from the Department of Education (see http://www.ed.gov/programs/nclbbrs/2005/2005-schools.html#nj )
And median income does not mean anything for schools. If a town has people making over $150k and they all send their kids to private schools, that does nothing for the public school system.
“106” On prices in Chatham NJ
Prices in Chatham are down only on the POS capes furthest from town down N Passaic Ave. Colonials are selling for 550+ but anything below $600 normally needs quite a bit of work. I have been looking there for quite a while and am in the process of closing soon. I started off trying to find a place for $450, but that price only buys a dump if you are looking for walking distance to town and train. $550 does a little better, but still requires a bit of work. The town does not have enough inventory for prices to really fall.
If anyone is looking for a steal in Chatham and doesnt mind a main street, a body shop wall in the back yard, and the train, there is a nice colonial selling for $530 on Hillside Ave, the owner is very motivated to sell. This is the lowest price for a nice house that I have seen in Chatham, although the location sucks.
Seneca (149)-
Coulda, woulda, shoulda. Would your 600K have been 600K after a home inspection that revealed defects? What if there were title problems? What if the house didn’t appraise? Your 600K offer- no matter how viable that deal SEEMED- could’ve unraveled faster than a ball of yarn in a pack of cats for any number of reasons.
This could’ve been a perfect house. You know it better than I. However, there’s a reason that lenders, appraisers and good agents only discuss CLOSED sales: all else- no matter how “close” the deal came to fruition- is talk.
Please also allow me to clear up a misconception about what I’ve asserted all along here: most agents DO NOT bring a great deal of added value to the table. I’m sure that in a number of circumstances, FSBOs can match- or beat- the results delivered by mediocre-to-bad agents. If a seller thinks a particular agent will bring nothing extra to his selling proposition, I certainly don’t advocate using that agent, simply to be using an agent.
However, why not simply look for a better agent? In most professions, better people get you better results, and it’s no different in RE. Maybe you have to mulch thru 3-4 agents to get one who’s better, but when it’s a few grand of your money on the line, what’s worse: spending 4-5 hours researching and interviewing…or 25-30 hours slagging thru your sale process, doing it all yourself?
Of course, I get the feeling that a few here have way more invested in making sure their self-fulfilling prophecies come true (confirmation bias?) and in the black-and-white thinking (all RE agents stink/used car salesmen are all crooks/all lawyers are bill-padding shysters) more commonly associated with the uneducated poor & lower middle class.
sas (174)-
Hard to keep the players straight. Much trolling lately.
Mr, Clotpol, you said it not me “All RE agents stink/used car salesmen are all crooks/all lawyers are bill-padding shysters”
Of course they do!!!! They are all making a living taking money out of your pocket and are a drain on GDP, they produce no product and serve hardly any purpose. I am glad you put the Queens Bld odometer roll back Katrina flood selling fly by night used car salesmen in the same boat as RE agents. My friend sells used cars and will get them for me for wholesale with no mark up. He is a good friend otherwise he would not do it. Why would anyone thank a used car salesmen who sells it to you for 3k more than a guy in a driveway and 6k more than he paid wholesale or trade-in. He is padding his pocket and has no soul or education.
#177 The town does not have enough inventory for prices to really fall?
OK, if you say so. Sounds like you are rationalizing you purchase decesion.
Good Luck with you purchase though.
#176 Let me inform you about Blue Ribbon.
1. The program deos not exist any more, in fact it was eliminated almost 10 years ago.
2. Nobody receieved a Blue Ribbon, a school district applied for it, and if certain standards etc were met, then it was given to a school district.
3. Many districts chose not to apply for various reasons.
Tenafly/Cresskill are excellent towns, not denying that.
However in looking at towns in their totality it is my belief that Franklin Lakes/Wyckoff, Allendale/Saddle River are the better values.
As I said you come on this site spouting all sorts of mis information about towns, school districts etc, and yet you have only lived in BErgen County a couple of years, and you have no children in schools. Please stop yourself.
#171 Glen Rock And Ridgewood are excellent towns. Ridgewood’s schools of course are “better” than Glen Rock.
Ridgewood taxes are high, GR even worse.
Lot sizes are typically small in both towns, and they both have some very busy streets, especially GLen Rock.
Ironically both towns are train towns with GR having 2 train lines, and yet the schedules especially for Ridgewood are not great, especially in the evening.
And that goes back to the fact that for all the nonsense about good commutes to NYC etc, the majortiy of people who live in Bergen County work in NJ.
NYC is secondary.
#173 – I saw a very similar conversation somewhere else too. I’m going to have to go back later and check if it was the exact same thing.
Un 143: You seem incapable of distinguishing between journalism and simply posting wire-service pieces.
(It’s okay, there’s a lot of that going around–mostly among Repubs. )
The former is rare these days; the latter is commonplace. TPM broke the Duke Cunningham story; they were at the vanguard of the DOJ mess stories. Pretty impressive for a mom-and-pop shop, no?
Everything I want to know about the UK plots is available on FOXNews, CNN, etc. But everything I NEED to know–like that it prolly wasn’t al Qaeda-related–is on BBC.com. I don’t need TPM or their ilk to digest and regurgitate what others are telling me. And I have plenty of outlets to turn to for commentary on events and the way they’re reported, thanks so much.
#177
Im not saying prices wont fall, (Im not gonna pull a Richard) but if you follow the town you will notice that all the nice homes go pretty quickly.
The houses the sit are the ones that need a good amount of work, are located in less desirable areas, or are just overpriced. I followed Ridgewood, Glenrock, Westfield, and Chatham. Chatham Boro being my favorite with the lowest taxes, best commute, seems to have held its values much better than the other towns.
Regarding my purchase, It was the right time for me to buy. We found a home that we loved at a price we could afford. We dont have to do any work to the house. I got tired of waiting for prices to fall further. I have been tracking the market since 2004. I think prices fell in many towns by quite a bit, but I havent seen too much weakness in Chatham and I think its due to the direct train line. Will the price of my home drop, possibly but I wanted my own place with my own garage. Prices may fall, but I expect to be there for the next 10 years or more. I got tired of renting an apartment in Manhattan and cant wait to move.
Good Luck to all!! Im sure weakness in pricing will continue through 2008 possibly 2009. The increase in interest rates should really dampen things.
Hi!
My name is Tomas!