From the Associated Press:
Housing data may mask crisis’ scope
It is possible that housing-market data is painting a brighter outlook than reality warrants.
Here’s a scary thought about the housing market: Things may be far worse than what’s already being revealed by the troubling government and industry statistics.
At issue is what goes into sales price data and what does not. When those numbers are crunched, many of the incentives that sellers are using to lure buyers — including cash rebates — aren’t being included. That suggests prices may be falling faster in many markets than is now being reported.
The same goes for how the mortgage-application indexes don’t account for the implosion of lenders. That could have the effect of masking a slowdown in demand, which is why the housing market could be in for rough sailing much longer than most anyone anticipates.
…
Since what happens in housing has a far-reaching effect — it has rattled financial markets, caused dramatic tightening of lending standards and shaken consumer confidence — every bit of data is scrutinized for hints of whether a recovery is near or more trouble lies ahead.There certainly has been plenty of bad news, but it might not even be giving a full picture of how difficult things really are.
For instance, the Commerce Department reported last week that the median sales price of new homes fell 0.9 percent in May from a year ago, after tumbling 10.9 percent in April.
But those numbers don’t include the thousands of dollars in lavish incentives like pool installation and closing costs that sellers are increasingly using to woo buyers. That means a home selling for $600,000 gets reported for that price even though all those extras technically are reducing the net sale price.
…
Over the last decade, the year-on-year change in the MBA’s ”purchase applications index” has shown a 76 percent correlation with the year-on-year growth rate of the combined new and existing single-family home sales, lagged by one month, according to Goldman Sachs.That might not be holding true now, since the index fails to account for some of the turmoil in the mortgage finance business. The purchase applications index is now showing a 9.5 percent rise for June from year-ago levels.
For one, the MBA survey refers to mortgage applications, not originations, which legally bind borrowers to the mortgage.
That is not a problem when lending standards are stable, but in times when lending standards are tightening — as they have been in recent months — more applications are rejected, and therefore, originations go down, according to the new Goldman report.
…
Another problem is the survey represents about half of all mortgage applications, but Goldman says that sub-prime is slightly underrepresented. Lenders who have gone out of business — a regular occurrence in today’s markets, with dozens of mortgage lenders having imploded in recent months — might not be included in the sample. That could overstate its results.The MBA acknowledges that its survey includes only lenders offering mortgages through retail branches, and that most lenders that have gone out of business aren’t in its sample because they were primarily subprime lenders relying on mortgage brokers. They also weren’t included when applications were soaring a few years ago, notes Jay Brinkmann, vice president of research and economics at the Washington-based MBA.
…
How that plays out could tell much about the state of housing today, and whether the problems in that market are a lot more troubling than appears on the surface.
From the WSJ:
After Blowup, Bear to Revamp Risk Control
Beefed-Up Oversight,
New Reporting Chain
To Come at Funds Unit
By KATE KELLY
July 3, 2007; Page C3
In the wake of the meltdown of two prominent internal hedge funds, executives at Wall Street firm Bear Stearns Cos. plan to strengthen the risk controls in their money-management unit, say people familiar with the matter.
One priority, say these people, is giving the parent company greater oversight of the money-management division, a unit with $60 billion under management that includes hedge funds, private equity and bond funds. To ensure more supervision, the risk-management team within Bear Stearns Asset Management is likely to report to Michael Alix, the parent company’s chief risk officer, these people said.
Bear also expects to add new risk managers to the team, which had reported to the division’s own chairman and chief executive.
Such moves are an acknowledgment that despite Bear’s reputation for extensive risk management, the checks and balances that keep its brokerage arm out of trouble have not been as effective in its asset-management unit.
From CNN/Money:
New York home prices: No place but up
If there’s one place where the housing slump seems to be a figment of the imagination, it’s New York City. A home in Manhattan is more expensive than ever, according to the latest reports from several big New York real estate brokers.
The median Manhattan condo or co-op apartment sold for between $840,000 and $895,000 during the three months ended June 30. The low estimate was reported by two brokers, Halstead Property and Brown Harris Stevens, while the Corcoran Group pegged it at $875,000, and Prudential Douglas Elliman recorded the high figure among the group.
…
“You can’t underestimate the impact of Wall Street,” she said. With hedge fund managers and investment bankers awash in cash, posh apartments close to work are in great demand.
The second group comes from overseas. “New York is a bargain for many foreign buyers,” said Liebman. Wealthy Koreans, Irish and Russians are some of the newer nationals from high cost foreign countries are drawn to the business centers and cultural attractions of the city. Many are spending millions for second, third, even fourth homes.
Also adding to demand, according to to Liebman, are the parents of young college students and graduates. Instead of paying stiff New York rents, they figure they can buy an apartment, keep junior there for four years and then sell at a profit when – or better if – he moves out.
…
Jonathan Miller, of Miller Samuel, the appraisal company that compiles the data for Elliman, said what most amazes him is, “You’re walking around the city and seeing all these new buildings, yet inventory still dropped.”
Substantially. Listing inventory fell 31.5 percent to 5,237 units compared with a year ago, according to Miller, and apartments are staying on the market a shorter period of time – 117 days on average, 10.1 percent less than a year ago.
…
Co-op apartment inventory dropped more than 40 percent and condo inventory 22 percent. Miller explained that more than 96 percent of new product is condo, enough to offset half the inventory drop but not enough to match demand rise. The Spring quarter is also usually marked by flat or rising inventory, making this decline even more impressive.
“The number of sales is the highest ever for a quarter,” said Miller.
If the numbers betray any weakness at all, it would be in the co-op segment; Brown Harris Stevens figures show a drop of 10 percent compared with a year ago.
“So many closings of co-ops were in small apartments, however,” said Hall Wilkie, president of Brown Harris Stevens. The average co-op sold was 8 percent smaller than last year, accounting for much of the difference.
http://www.philly.com/philly/classifieds/real_estate/20070701_Squishy_foreclosure_data.html
Overcounting may magnify the problem
All these reliable data points make me wanna go right out and invest.
Re real estate investment by foreign nationals. How much are these people typically putting down? What types of mortgages are they getting? I would also like to know what lenders they are using for their mortgages? It seems to me a downturn in Korea means MR or MS Korea decides they are no longer going to pay on that property in old USA, what’s the bank gonna do about it?
From BusinessWeek:
Ahead of the Bell: Pending Home Sales
Data on May’s pending sales of existing homes will offer some indication of whether the housing market’s slowdown is likely to extend into summer.
The National Association of Realtors’ report on May’s pending home sales is to be released Tuesday at 10 a.m. EDT.
The realtors association index, calculated since 2001, is based on a national sample representing about 20 percent of existing home sales. It is considered an indicator of how sales will perform in the coming weeks because it measures home purchases in which a sales contract has been signed, but the deal has not yet been closed.
The index dropped by 3.2 percent in April, compared with the previous month, falling to 101.4 from an upwardly revised figure of 104.8 in March. Pending sales numbers for both April and March were about 10 percent lower than year-ago levels.
Most foreigners put down 100% and have a bill pay service attached. Lets say you are Korean and want a crash pad in NYC, you go to your NYC branch of Bank of Korea, borrow versus a 100% colateralized loan, no fees and then have all coop/condo/electricity bills sent right to NYC bank branch and for a small fee they pay them all out of your checking, seen it a thousand time. Coops love them, zero default risk and they pay maint but are only in the building a few weeks a year!!
HEHEHE Says:
July 3rd, 2007 at 7:11 am
Re real estate investment by foreign nationals. How much are these people typically putting down? What types of mortgages are they getting? I would also like to know what lenders they are using for their mortgages? It seems to me a downturn in Korea means MR or MS Korea decides they are no longer going to pay on that property in old USA, what’s the bank gonna do about it?
One thing the article didn’t mention was the OFHEO statistics. The “headline” housing price index numbers include a large number of refinancing. In New Jersey, only 15.8% of the samples in the index were based on purchases, the rest were refinancing.
The problem with using refinancings is that it the home price numbers are based on appraisals not actual market transactions. Appraisals tend to be more generous for refinancings and are often based on older comps, which may not reflect current market conditions.
The “headline” OFHEO housing price index tells a story of “slowing”, but continued positive appreciation for New Jersey. The purchase only index shows prices off a little over 1% since the second quarter of 2006.
While 1% may seem small, don’t forget this is state-wide and includes South Jersey, where the market has held up much better than in the north. Also, the statistics also only include “conforming” loans less than $417k. This is going to
1)Bias transactions toward South Jersey, where a larger proportion of homes are less expensive & the market is stronger
2)Only really cover the “starter home” (ie POS Cape) market in North Jersey, which has been “least weak” market segment.
“It is possible that housing-market data is painting a brighter outlook than reality warrants”
Well HP and BB tell us there is no contagion. Who would argue? Bear, its hedge fund investors, United Capital and its investor who accounts for 25% of the funds capital, Dillon Read or Cambridge?
Back to reality and the paint brush. Didn’t KB just report that their avg incentives were 43K, on top of an avg price decline of 7.5%?
From the AP:
Late Payments Rise for Home Equity Loans
Late payments on home equity loans climbed to a 1 1/2-year high in the opening quarter of this year, while delinquencies on credit card bills fell, painting a mixed picture of how people are managing their debt.
The American Bankers Association, in its quarterly survey of consumer loans, reported Tuesday that late payments on home equity loans rose to 2.15 percent in the January-to-March quarter. That was up sharply from 1.92 percent in the final quarter of last year and was the highest since the late summer of 2005.
“There are still signs of consumer financial distress, which will continue throughout most of this year as the worst of the housing problem works its way through the economy,” said James Chessen, the association’s chief economist.
Payments are considered delinquent if they are 30 or more days past due. The survey is based on information supplied by more than 300 banks nationwide.
The survey also showed that the delinquency rate on a composite of other types of consumer loans, including those for autos and boats, home improvement and for certain home equity loans, increased to 2.42 percent in the first quarter. That was up from the fourth quarter’s 2.23 percent delinquency rate and was the highest since the second quarter of 2001, when the economy was in a recession. The rise for the composite was driven by home-equity loan delinquencies, Chessen said.
[11]
….but visa and mastercard are up to date.
Not too worry, the bailout is on the way. Until then, better pay the minimums on the Visa, we can’t afford to live without it.
jb
Hehehe,
I recently sold a condo to a twentysomething Korean American. 20% down.
HEHEHE,
They pay cash. No “M” word is used in their vocabulary. Most boards don’t give them approval unless they pay cash.
We have to face it people have money to spare. After all, it’s only money.
John,
Thanks for the clarification. I just was wondering given the lending atmosphere of late re liar loans etc. whether if this was another area subject to abuse.
Hehehe
Bergen County Under Contract Info from NJMLS
May
SFH
Down 14.2% (Lowest in 13 years)
Condo, Co-op, Townhouse
Up 11.9%
SFH, Condo, Co-op, Townhouse
Down 7.9%
June
SFH
Down 0.3% (Second lowest in 13 years)
Condo, Co-op, Townhouse
Down 13.8%
SFH, Condo, Co-op, Townhouse
DOwn 4.1%
I remember this in Eco 101, but what happens when you add rising rates, tighting credit and a shift in housing morale.
Marginal buyer = Marginal Seller
http://www.cnbc.com/id/19557215
GSMLS statistics data for June hasn’t been updated yet..
jb
Rich,
Can you send the contracts info so I can update the contracts spreadsheet?
https://njrereport.com/files/contracts.xls
jb
Updating everything so I’ll send it over when I’m done.
People seem to be ignoring the surge in American household net worths that has taken place during the past several years. This is one of the fundamental factors behind the recent rise in home prices, I believe.
Although I don’t have state-by-state figures, it is fair to assume that New Jersey household net worths are significantly higher than the national average.
In New Jersey, home prices have increased faster, equity portfolios are larger stemming from higher incomes (high earners own more stocks), and the states high immigration level has produced above-average entrepreneurship and small business ownership.
There is a enormous amount of family wealth in the New York City and North Jersey areas that can be used to finance home purchases. In my view, this affects Hudson County more than other parts of North Jersey because wealthy immigrant families, particularly of Asian heritage, are helping to finance the purchase of
their children’s first homes.
http://www.house.gov/jec/publications/110/rr110-1.pdf
People seem to be ignoring the surge in American household net worths that has taken place during the past several years. This is one of the fundamental factors behind the recent rise in home prices, I believe.
I think you are putting the cart before the horse.
Rising home prices have largely caused an increase in net worth, not the other way around.
In fact, in the link you provided,
The rapid accumulation of wealth among U.S. households during the last five and three-quarter years is mainly attributable to:
Owner-occupied housing. The escalation of residential real estate prices during the last five and three-quarter years boosted the market value of owner-occupied housing by 79.5 percent to $20.5 trillion on September 30, 2006.
Pre,
Household debt is at an all time high. I’d like to know what the change in net worth is if you factor out both inflation and owner occupied homes. My guess is that net worth would have been relatively flat over that time period.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CMDEBT/97/Max
Looking at that graph, it appears that household debt has gone parabolic.
jb
Can’t look at homeownership without factoring in the debt associated..
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/07/01/erosion-of-owners-equity
THE wonderful world of leverage has lifted homeownership to near-record levels, and we thump our chests with pride at the prosperity and middle-class life that possessing a home implies. Hovering in the background, however, is a glaring statistic: Never before have homeowners actually had such a small ownership stake in the houses they occupy.
…
Just such a squeeze appears to be under way as home prices level off and begin to drop. The stake that families have in their homes fell faster in the 12 months through March than at any time since the early 1990s, the Fed reports. At the end of the first quarter, the nation’s homeowners owned, free of debt, only 52.7 percent of their dwellings, down from 54.1 percent a year earlier and 57.5 percent at the start of the century. The decline occurred even though owners’ equity, measured in dollars, rose by an astonishing $4.3 trillion since 2000. Unfortunately, mortgage debt rose by $5 trillion.
RentinginNJ,
In another example of the cognitive bias that characterizes this site, you blatantly misrepresented the report that I posted.
The report identifies and accounts for several of the reasons why net worths have increased, with home price increases explaining less than half of the rapid accumulation of wealth described in the report.
JB,
Thanks for posting the link. I agree that we must recognize the difference between asset value and equity value.
But the article you posted highlighted that 36% of US homeowners don’t have mortgages and the average mortgage-debt-to-home-value is 53% today. These are not disaster figures.
#26 pretorius: So then what is the connection bewteen the surge in net worth, and the surge in debt?
Tons od wealthy Asian families with tons of money to finance tons of house buying, in a state that is rapdidly declining in so many ways.
I understand what the report says, I simply do nto believe it;it simply makes no sense.
JB (#24),
The report I posted earlier accounts for the surge in wealth accumulation, and home prices are only a small part of it.
And all-time high debt makes sense when net worths are also at an all-time high. Seems like US households, on balance, have used debt wisely and leverage has enabled them to achieve net worths that wouldn’t be possible without it.
#27 The point of the article is that admist this huge run up in values of real estate, equity is declining. The number may not be disastrous as you say, but it certainly says something is wrong.
Renting[23],
You beat me to it. This is exactly the crux of the argument; 80-100% increase in RE not supported by wage growth. WS was in the s*it can from 2001-2004. Towards the end of 2004, the Dow was under 10K. Hell, the Nasdaq is still approx 50% off its high, real terms?
Equity portfolios had/have zero influence on the RE boom. Even WS bonuses could not save it from its demise. In addition to this, there is zero evidence that present day stock portfolios are being liquidated to buy RE. Quite the opposite, related funds and derivatives are blowing up.
The report I posted earlier accounts for the surge in wealth accumulation, and home prices are only a small part of it.
Can you break out the numbers for us? Using the data in the Flow of Funds and the report you’ve posted, list the categories, their percentage and net dollar contributions. I’d do it, but I’ve got a meeting in 2 minutes. Ideally, rank the categories from greatest to least contribution based on percentage gain of the asset category, as well as net dollar gain.
jb
3b,
I borrowed to finance a graduate degree that has enabled me to earn an annual income that is 2x what I would’ve earned without the degree. More importantly, I estimate conservatively that my net worth today is 5x higher than it would’ve been if I didn’t borrow a lot of $ to pay for education.
And millions of Americans are just like me.
From MarketWatch:
Pending home-sales index falls 3.5% in May
The housing market weakened further in May, with contract signings on sales of existing homes falling 3.5%, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. Pending sales are down 13.3% compared with a year earlier, and are down 21% from the peak year in 2005. Pending sales fell 8.9% in the Midwest, and 7.6% in the South. Pending sales rose 5.6% in the West and 3.8% in the Northeast. A sale is considered “pending” when the contract signed; the NAR marks it as “sold” when the sale closes, usually within two months. The pending homes-sales index is considered a leading indicator of existing-home sales.
Re #6 & #8,
Lots of foreign nationals have their one and only home in the USA. This group of middle class, first generation immigrants (think “Green Card”)is probably bigger the the rich foreigners that buy the expensive NY or LA real estate. Alot of this crowd buys modest SFH in areas with great schools or send their kids to private schools in both cases where they inevitably outperform their peers, go to Ivy League schools and become CEOs of Fortune 500 companies…etc, etc…
From Bloomberg:
Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Fall to Five-Year Low
Americans unexpectedly signed the fewest contracts to buy previously owned homes in more than five years in May as buyers waited for lower prices and lenders made it harder to get mortgages.
The index of signed purchase agreements, or pending home resales, dropped 3.5 percent to 97.7 from a revised 101.2 in April, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington.
The report underscores the Federal Reserve’s view that the housing slump will hold back economic growth into the second half of 2007. Rising defaults on subprime mortgages and higher borrowing costs are contributing to the glut of unsold homes.
“The picture in housing is still negative,” David Sloan, senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, said before the report. “We see demand declining through this year.”
Economists expected pending sales to rise 0.5 percent, from an originally reported decline of 3.2 percent, according to the median of 27 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Estimates ranged from a drop of 2.5 percent to an increase of 2 percent.
Today’s report showed that the May reading was the lowest level since September 2001, when the index of contracts to buy previously owned homes touched 98.1. April pending home resales were revised to a decline of 3.5 percent.
Pending resales decreased 13.3 percent from May 2006. The realtor group’s data on pending home sales go back to January 2001 and the organization started publishing the index in March 2005.
#33 True and millions more are not, it still does not justify the huge increase in prices, nor does gurantee there continued rise.
Ironic to think that much of the increase could have been driven by non-MBA clueless every day people, and yet now it is the MBA crowd that will tey and justify it? Just thinking out loud.
#29 pretorius; I think you are gravely mistaken on all points, time will tell.
JB,
You should have the data
Rich
Pre,
Help me to understand how that data confirms/explains:
1) The surge in subprime lending.
2) The surge in No-doc/low-doc lending.
3) The drop in downpayment amounts.
4) Increasing foreclosures.
5) Increasing mortgage delinquencies.
6) A significant drop in sales volumes since late ’05.
7) The current level of housing inventory.
(added)
8) Increasing debt delinquencies (from the link above).
jb
JB #32,
Here are the components of US household net worth as of September 30, 2006.
Asset type: Equity: % of total:
Owner-occupied housing $20.5 38%
Pensions $11.6 21%
Stocks $10.0 18%
Small businesses, farms $7.1 13%
Other $4.9 9%
Total $54.1 100%
JB #40,
I agree that the housing market has weakened substantially, although I’m not going to waste my time elaborating on your list. This site has plenty of experts who enjoy hyperventilating about the items in your list.
If home prices around here decline 20%, home prices would still be up signficantly from where they were in 2000.
“People seem to be ignoring the surge in American household net worths that has taken place during the past several years. This is one of the fundamental factors behind the recent rise in home prices, I believe.”
There has been no “surge” in new worth. It’s a debt fueled dog and pony show pushing a paper “net worth” further up the scale with no underlying fundamentals as support. Once the market turns the “net worth” collapses. Ask all those high rollers who were dumb enough to buy internet stocks on margin in the late 1990’s where their “net worth” went.
Amounts in #41 are in trillions.
#43,
Net worths have surged 30.6% since 2000. This increase in wealth happened during a period which included the stock market crash that you described. Plus, net worth is calculated after deducting debt.
Your case hangs on “a debt fueled dog and pony show” and “internet stocks on margin”. The facts quickly scotch it.
“Net worths have surged 30.6% since 2000”
If my house drops in value tomorrow by 25%, did my net worth change?
Gary,
The value of your house will not decline by 25% tomorrow.
Pre,
An asset bubble, a debt fueled asset bubble, raises all ships. The reality is when the liquidity drains all the ships will sink. In the end when the bubble in housing deflates and regresses to the mean the supposed increase in new worth will be a mirage.
#45 Pre
Great post.
pretorius,
Just for haha’s, let’s say that it did. What’s my net worth then?
I think I need to switch my w and t on my keyboard
still waiting for prices to drop in Manhattan…
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/03/nyregion/03prices.html
Co-ops Slip, but Condos Lead Rise in Manhattan Apartment Prices
By CHRISTINE HAUGHNEY
Published: July 3, 2007
While housing prices are falling in many parts of the country, the cost of a Manhattan apartment is continuing to rise over all. But a stark divide is emerging between the prices of co-ops and condominiums. More buyers are choosing condominiums over co-ops and are paying far more for them, according to studies being released today.
The average price of a condo in Manhattan rose by as much as 28 percent in the second quarter of this year compared with last year, according to data tracked by four large real estate brokerages. In the same period, the average co-op price dropped by as much as 10 percent. Buyers paid an average of $1.49 million for a condominium, compared with $1.13 million for a co-op, according to figures from Brown Harris Stevens.
…These eager and rich buyers are swallowing up the stock of condos. Today, Manhattan has just 5,237 apartments up for sale, compared with 7,640 condos and co-ops for sale last year at the same time, according to data tracked by the appraisal firm Miller Samuel.
Jonathan Miller, the president of Miller Samuel, said inventory is also shrinking because potential buyers had been renting until they were sure the market had stabilized. “They have re-entered the market,” he said. “We’ve essentially eliminated most of the fat out of the inventory.”
We’ve got the numbers here folks, no need to guess or speculate. I defer to the good ol’ Z.1.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/RELEASES/z1/Current/z1r-5.pdf
jb
Could anyone please provide information on the following Ridgewood MLS listing (address, last sale price, how long on market, etc.)? Also, does anyone know anything about the street, neighborhood, etc.?
Thank you in advance.
mls# 2725984
41]
Wheere do you account for “empty houses”? or have we written them off?
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2007/01/empty-homes-everywhere.html
Hehehe #48,
I disagree. How do you think net worths in Ohio and Michigan, two of the country’s most populous states, performed during the past several years?
I would estimate horribly. Flat home prices, pensions on the rocks, and relatively few entrepreneurs and small businesses combine to produce a situation where net worths are going nowhere.
JB,
The top of page four is interesting, the rise in net worth seems to coincide with the same years of the “frothy” real estate market.
Between 2000 and 2002, net worth fell roughly 6% from $41.4 trillion to $38.8 trillion.
That drop was due mainly to a drop in corporate equities which fell from $8 trillion to $4.5 trillion, as well as Mutual fund shares, which fell from $2.9 trillion to $2.3 trillion .
The contribution of corporate equities to net worth still hasn’t reached the level seen in 2000. In 2007.Q1, corp. equities only account for $5.4 trillion.
jb
Pre,
Lets agree to disagree.
#42 And most on this site are predicting a correction in the neighborhood of 20% to 30% from the 05 peak.
I do not believe any one here is calling for a complete collapse
Hehehe,
Fair enough.
No comments on the NAR PHS numbers this morning?
jb
agree, James. i’m sure there are some wealthy individuals that are going to buy in this market…..why, because they can. however, what really tells the story for me is that most first time homebuyers are priced out, especially with the crash of the subprime, alt A market.
From CNN/Money:
Key home sale index slides to 6-year low
Existing home sales are likely to see more declines in coming months as a key reading of pending deals fell to nearly a six-year low in May, a real estate group said Tuesday.
The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending home sales, which reflects homes under contract, sank to 97.7 in May from 101.2 in April. The latest reading is 13.3 percent lower than May 2006.
The index was created in 2001 to be a more forward-looking reading on home sales than the group’s existing home sales report, which charts sales at the time of closing. The pending home sales index tracks when a sales agreement is signed, generally a month or two ahead of closing.
#62 JB ANy htoughts on the northeast increase (3.8%)?
Page R 22 of Wall Street Journal today states that the percentage of US households that have an annual income of more than $200,000 and net worth exceeding one million is now at 8.5% of the US population. Remember, net worth in this definition excludes your primiary residence. It also states that 1.3% of households have $2,5 million of net worth. Considering the concentration of wealthy in NJ/NY the 8.5% and 1.3% percentages are much higher here. Incomes and net worth have risen a lot in the last ten years even when you do not count their primary home. 100K just ten years ago was the holy grail of salaries and when you reached six figures it was a milestone. Now 100k gets you a POS cape and a used Taurus.
#66 For Now, and yet so many POS Capes, and colonials,and rancehs are just sitting, and sitting, and we are now into July.
James Bednar Says:
No comments on the NAR PHS numbers this morning?
I think the data you previously posted on closed May sales in Jersey foreshadowed this. This is just a confirmation from the NAR on the same thing.
The numbers I’m waiting for is the June and July closing data from you. I don’t need to hear it from the NAR. The May numbers showed an ominous trend.
#66 John There was an article some months back, either WSJ or NYT.
It discussed the number of people making 200k or more in NYC. I forget the number, but I thought it was very low. I was very surprised it was not much higher.
If everybody was so damn wealthy why didn’t they put money down and lock in 5.25-6.00%, long term financing? Why create a derivative market to enable the herd to get in?
James this is the most self serving statistic I have ever seen. You take the peak of the market in 2000 as a start date and the bottom of the market as an end date and make it a statistic. Makes no sense. Also you talk a lot about first time buyers as if they were big time in stock market seven years ago. The two 28yo staff I have who are first time buyers both graduated in 2002 and started saving in mutual funds and their 401k have only seen an up market in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007. They are both loving it as home prices are falling 10 percent a year while their stocks are rising 10 percent a year. Only the dunkin donuts clerks first time buyers with nothing in the bank and 100% financing are getting screwed with rates going up and the subprime piggy bank being shut. These bozos should not have been buying houses, the rest are getting 5.5% in cds and 10.0% in stock and saving 3k a month while prices are falling. They will jump in when prices stop falling and start to rise but for now every month they wait they have a bigger down payment and can get a better house so why rush to a POS cape.
James Bednar Says:
July 3rd, 2007 at 10:52 am
Between 2000 and 2002, net worth fell roughly 6% from $41.4 trillion to $38.8 trillion.
#70 BC: Because the all is well crowd will tell you that these are all savvy sophisicated individuals making 200k or more, with a bonus to match, that used leverage to their advantage.
Those additional monies are now invested in high growth and quality investemnts spread across the investment market spectrum.
That is the belief, keep repeating it over and over. And of course everybopdy works on Wall Street, even if they do not.
“That is the belief, keep repeating it over and over. And of course everybopdy works on Wall Street, even if they do not.”
3b,
My *ss sits right in the middle of the street. As you are well aware, it is a major fallacy to assume that everybody taking the Path back to Jersey is making 250-500K per year.
The US Govt numbers are confusing they quote census data or old data. Salaries are way way way way up. Look in Newsday today, Nassau County Cops just signed a new contract. Old contract was after nine years BASE salary was $92,434 and now new salary after nine years is $116,966. That is a 24K raise!!!!!! A cop can start at 21, so nine years out you are 30. Also that is only a three day a week job, 12 hours a day, most cops work OT or other jobs since they have free time so the average 30yo cop on his own makes 200K a year, now that is not household income that is just his salary if his wife is a teacher or nurse she can pull in another 100K. I know lots of cop/teacher couples who are at the beach today with fat pensions and summers off pulling down 300K a year in household income!!!!!!! My neighbor the cop used to complain that he had to turn down OT in the fall cause it would just throw him into AMT!!!!.
July 3rd, 2007 at 11:11 am
#66 John There was an article some months back, either WSJ or NYT.
It discussed the number of people making 200k or more in NYC. I forget the number, but I thought it was very low. I was very surprised it was not much higher.
“so the average 30yo cop on his own makes 200K a year,”
John,
Stop the nonsense. I have 4 cops in my family. You are out in left field without a glove.
#73 Me too BC, heck I even worked at the holy grail of Wall St (goldman) for many years.
And yet I still have people, many who do not even work on the street constantly lecture me about the salaries bonus etc. etc.
And that is why all can afford a POS 500k cape with a 10K a year tax bill.
#74 I know lots of cops too, both retired and still ont he force, and nobody is pulling down any where near that amount of money.
For instance a retired NYPD Sgt friend of mine annual pension 60K a year.
Can someone please post the link to that NYT graph tracking housing expenses over the past 100 years or so? (The one with the giant spike) Thanks.
3b,
I have seargants, lieutenants and chiefs in my family. Nobody works 3 days a week. They would laugh at that 200k #. Their main concern, at this time, is downsizing/shared servives, neighboring communities.
>>Now 100k gets you a POS cape and a used Taurus.
if even that! LOL
$200k is the new $100k folks.
I’d argue even higher Richard, maybe as high as $250k. Assuming of course, the base year is set sometime in the mid 90’s.
jb
#79 BC Agreed. Sometimes its like talking to the wall in here. The amount of misinformation and myths is staggering.
Up up and away, 200k saves the day!!
These housing prices we must pay!!
“The report identifies and accounts for several of the reasons why net worths have increased, with home price increases explaining less than half of the rapid accumulation of wealth described in the report.”
Pre – the causality nevertheless flows in the opposite direction from that posited in your original post.
And at #41, you show owner-occuped housing at 38% of net worth. But how much of the marginal increase in net worth correlates with marginal increase in value of owner-occuped housing? I’d guess a lot more than 38%….
“100K just ten years ago was the holy grail of salaries and when you reached six figures it was a milestone. Now 100k gets you a POS cape and a used Taurus.”
LOL… funny and true.
JB’s numbers posted at 53, with some crunching, show the following:
– Value of homes as a percentage of net worth increased from 27% to 37% from 2000 to 2007
– Value of homes increased 182% from 2000 to 2007
– Value of all other assets increased 118% from 2000 to 2007 (not enough to cover inflation).
#87 – forgot to subtract value of mortgage liabilitie from that last bullet – here are the corrected calcs:
– Value of homes as a percentage of net worth increased from 27% to 37% from 2000 to 2007
– Value of homes increased 182% from 2000 to 2007
– Value of all other assets increased 133% from 2000 to 2007 (barely enough to cover inflation).
Where did this fantasy of 200k a year come from? In 2005 in Basking Ridge the median household income was 121k and the median home/condo was 600k. [I saw that on the internet so we all know it must be true :)] I really doubt the median house price of 5x median income is sustainable. I thought this site posted an article showing 4 to 4.3 times income was towards the high end of the normal range for income to median home prices.
Most of the people I know/ used to work with who commuted to NYC from NJ made 50 to 80 a year with bonus/overtime, and those jobs are being shipped to Tamnpa, Buffalo, Ohio, Charlotte, India, etc.
And more importantly, if someone has the education level or the business savy to pull in over 200k a year, do you think they will be dumb/foolish/gullible enough to pay 600k for a pos cape, most likely on a lot too small to expand the house?
Cops making 200K/year? Man, put down that pipe!
If cops made that kind of jack, why am I constantly placing them into special mortgage programs designed to encourage their living within the communities they serve? Why do those heavily-incentivized programs exist?
#74 I know lots of cops too, both retired and still ont he force, and nobody is pulling down any where near that amount of money.
For instance a retired NYPD Sgt friend of mine annual pension 60K a year.
NYPD cops are not well paid at all. It seems like cop salaries in the NY metro area are inversely proportional to the amount of actual crime and danger a cop is likely to face. If the cops you know tend to be on the NYPD or more “urban” forces (Newark etc.), you are probably right. They don’t make that kind of money.
The highest paid cops tend to be in sleepy little bedroom towns. The average cop in Bergen County pulls in over $100k.
#89 barien: What is wrong with you? That response was just too rational.
#92 That is why many of the PD’s need to be consolidated.
PossibleBuyer #78, here you go:
Housing Prices for the Last 100+ Years
http://graphics.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif
I’m not sure to laugh or cry over the fact that we’re trying to justify home prices by pointing to overpaid government employees.
jb
Just how many police officers are we talking about anyway? What was the total change in the police force between 2000 and 2007? Were enough of these officers added in the past 7 years to even make any kind of case that this population could have moved the market?
jb
If cops made that kind of jack, why am I constantly placing them into special mortgage programs designed to encourage their living within the communities they serve? Why do those heavily-incentivized programs exist?
These programs are just another “benny” offered by an electorate that is at the mercy of the unions in NJ.
These programs probably got their root in a legitimate need. Cops were once underpaid, blue-collar public servants. Now that they have this benefits though, it will be a cold day in hell before they give it up.
3b #93
sorry. yesterday I started taking a multivitamin and now wear a helmet when I bang my head against the wall. What a difference, the fog has been lifted.
I agree that salaries are rapidly rising, though in many cases it still is not enough to keep up with the cost of living.
For example, total entry level comp for associates at many big NYC law firms is now $190,000. This is up $30,000-40,000 from two years ago.
However, the cost of living has gone up much more in this time frame. Associates are fleeing NYC firms more than ever before, despite what seems like exhorbitant pay to some.
“Cops making 200K/year? Man, put down that pipe!”
Clot,
Crap in, crap out. Total garbage. Marvin ‘Tire Iron” Barnes would have foregone the assembly line for this.
“Were enough of these officers added in the past 7 years to even make any kind of case that this population could have moved the market?”
JB,
Have we gravitated from WS bonuses saving this market to 200k cops? A total waste of good blog space and time.
#100 skeptic: Yes in some professions.
But the standard every day raise for the great majority of salaried employees is right around the so called inflation rate approximatley 3.1%
I’ve been reading posts on this board for some time and although I agree with most posts regarding the RE market, premium North Jersey towns are not suffereing as much as the posts may indicate. What I’m finding is that sellers continue to list their houses at such high levels. Those that do find that their house will sit for months. Those that price it right, sell within two weeks. That’s not a slumping housing market. Also, I think sellers are holding off buying and selling because they read see in the media that the market is in a slump. As such, inventory in BC is low, which is keeping a lid on price declines.
I’m not just saying this to spoil the mood here. I’ve been looking for a home since December and the inventory is just not there. By the way, I’m looking in the 9-1m point, whcih should buy a nice 4br home. Its incredibly frustrating when you read the WSJ about the terrible real estate market and you don’t see houses listing or listing for reasonable prices. Here’s the truth – the NY metro area will always do well as long as there are high paying jobs in NYC. Also, real estate markets are local. What happens nationally doesn’t apply to NNJ.
Just my two cents.
Going back to the discussion of the Manhattan RE market holding up, you can thank (to a very small extent) the devaluation of the US dollar to make it easier for the overseas folks to buy. I didn;t say affordable, just easier because the really rich overseas folks can obviously afford Manhattan. But when they know that $1 in is now 80 cents, it’s little icing on the cake for them and reinforces their decision to buy. Having said that, I don’t think the number of buyers out there are that large to actually reduce Manhattan inventory. And there are no marginal overseas buyers out there; people either have a lot of money or not. And they do buy Manhattan for ‘cocktail conversations’ back home.
And the median price definitely ain’t going up (praying might help) just because a $49 million apartment comes on the market.
So in one day we think Koreans, Wall Street & Cops will save the NNJ RE. Ha Ha Ha !!!
What’s next, Shoprite Cash Clerks buying all starter homes?
#104, real estate goes up, and it goes down — simple as that. This area is not immune, as history has shown.
Perhaps your expectations are not in line with the historical trend, where prices take years to go up, and years to go down:
http://graphics.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif
Just how many police officers are we talking about anyway? What was the total change in the police force between 2000 and 2007? Were enough of these officers added in the past 7 years to even make any kind of case that this population could have moved the market?
JB,
In fact one could argue that high public worker salaries should have very little impact on home prices because they don’t really contribute to an aggregate increase in net wealth. For example, high cop salaries mean high property taxes, which in turn cuts into the spending power of everyone else, which should have a moderating effect on home prices to offsetting the increased spending power of cops.
#104 Wll there we go with the close to NYC again. I do no know here in north JErsey youa re looking, but in the top BC towns, or so called top premier, prestigious, there is a lot of inventory.
And it does not appear much is selling. For instance.
Franlin Lakes:131
Wyckoff:105
Allendale:35
Saddle River:70
Upper Saddle River:115
Glen Rock:44
Ridgewood:112
These are all listings for S/F homes priced at 400k and up. Does not include coops/condos. (njmls)
I see no shortgage of inventory, and again not a whole lot selling.
3b,
I can’t imagine how industries in NYC that haven’t been giving big raises in the last couple of years retain quality employees.
Obviously, NYC has a strong appeal for many people, but it is not the only place to live. I know that the law students we recruit are aware that the cost of living in other places is much less and the salaries are only slightly less. I think many are willing to compromise a bit to have the NYC life for a few years, but it is a big problem once you’re a few years into your career and thinking about having a family. Which is absurd, of course, because this is a high paying profession
(Snip: Duplicate, already posted, see #2 above -jb)
Hey, Un, sorry for the delayed reaction: https://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/07/02/you-would-send-home-prices-into-a-freefall#comment-104961
ps: Scooter Walks. Rule of Law has to hitch a ride with another party.
sorry JB.
#95 (Un) – thanks!
First of all your friend is NYPD which is why he makes peanuts – that is volunteer work!!! here is the link with the cops salaries
http://www.newsday.com/news/printedition/longisland/ny-licops035279584jul03,0,6373274.story?coll=ny-linews-print
Also when people bring up average salaries and say they are low, that is crap. My retired father-in-law with a paid off house and a 40K income is averaged in to the income of his well off town. Show me the average salary in North Bergan of men between 35 and 50 with a degree and a professional job in North Bergan and I bet is is closer to 200K.
Also teachers are not Wall Street but they make a lot in NJ. The majority of teachers are women and in the book the millionaire next door guess what the number one occupation of the spouses of millionaires are, you guessed it TEACHERS. Good School district, 36 YO teacher makes 100K a year with a millionaire husband, NICE, but you won’t here that tax time.
Think about it first year law graduates making 190K to start, they are only 25 years old, that is what a 40 year old lawyer made ten years ago, that is quite a jump.
#109.
Granted. There are a number of homes. However, when you’re out there looking at these homes in the towns you mentioned, they are not as desirable as they appear on Realtor.com. Also, most of the towns listed above have listings either in the 500’s or +1m. Not much quality in the middle.
I have yet to see a decent home without it being right next to the GSP.
Seriously. Get out there and you’ll see that there’s something wrong with the homes are are listed. Either they’re right on top of the GSP or they have flood problems, etc. Very few and limited decent houses.
realnnj,
Who are you working with? Where are you from?
jb
“But when they know that $1 in is now 80 cents,”
dream,
50 cents.
Not really fair to say entry level comp for entering biglaw associates is 190K. They start work in september and the 30K bonus isnt paid out till the following December :)
But seriously, I think using entry level biglaw salaries as proof that salaries can support this is kinda nutty since attrition is so high (50% within two years sounds reasonable) and most people take pay cuts when they leave.
John [115],
From your post. Where the hell are cops making 200k after 9 years?
“Under the new contract, officers who got $65,560 a year base pay in the second year will get only $45,000, then $66,216 in their third year. They used to reach top scale – $92,432 – in eight years, but now it will take nine.”
john #115
I don’t know what your smoking
Me, 34, TWO degrees, one advanced work in pharma sub six figures
Wife, 31, 1 degree 1 Masters certificate just over six figures works in pharma
Teacher I grew up with teaches in Bergen county, 30, tenured 45K, looked it up on the resoure provided here many moons ago. By the way it is an high end good district town.
Cops I know over 100K but they don’t work anything resembling a 3 day week, closer to 60 hours.
Face facts not everyone in New Jersey is reaping Wall Street Mega Rewards. That is a very small percentage of the general populace.
Do first year lawyers get paid a premium in NYC sure they do, but what is their retain rate. Any way you slice it, this area is overpriced well beyond the usual premium for proximity to NYC. There is a reckoning coming and I’m glad I’m on the sidelines getting out of debt.
So what is the conclusion here?
It seems like the moral of the story is, “If you aren’t making $250k a year, just leave.”
jb
Jb,
My goal is to make 250k a year AND leave :)
#116 I am ou there. I think you are very much mistaken.
#116 Shades of Westfield? 200 plus inventory but its all crap?
JB #122,
Yes. The only good reason to live in North Jersey, excepting family, is the proximity it provides to New York City’s job market and cultural amenities.
Some interesting news from MarketWatch:
United Capital suspends redemptions on four hedge funds
United Capital says redemption halt is temporary
United Capital says it’s not liquidating funds
United Capital says it got lots of redemption requests
United Capital has cut leverage of Horizon hedge funds
Horizon fund lost money closing positions on ABX index
United Capital has stopped trading synthetic markets
#115 Average 200K!!!! You are on crack/cocaine, seriuosly you are delusional, if you think that is the average salary in north Bergen County. Do not mean to be offensive,but seriously.
Just leave and go WHERE? I was in Raleigh area few weeks ago (again) and the traffic is getting worse and saw 3br CONDOS (no basement, no garage) in Durham in mid 300s. That’s more expensive than the Middlesex county town I live in right now.
Andover, NJ,
Annual Salary, Fixed.
Chief of Police- Min-70k, Max-102k
Lieutenant- Min-60k, Max-90K
http://www.andovertwp.org/Ordinances/2007-09.pdf
(Snip: Duplicate, already posted. -jb)
What other conclusion can a first time buyer draw from this discussion?
jb
John– as you mentioned previously, these salary number should not be as eye-popping as they used to be. Obviously, anyone who can make $190,000 is relatively fortunate. But take out taxes, $3,400 per month in rent for a 1 BR, and $1500 per month in student loan payments and $190,000 does not put you in the lap of luxury in NYC.
As for the teachers– my wife is a teacher in Westchester county. Her department lost 10 teachers last year and 8 this year. Despite the high salaries, they have extreme difficulty retaining young teachers due to the cost of living.
Eagle,
Ridgewood 264 Claremont 2725984
ACT CLAREMONT RD $639,000 4/25/2001
ACT* CLAREMONT RD $639,000 4/30/2001
U/C CLAREMONT RD $639,000 5/4/2001
SLD CLAREMONT RD $701,000
ACT CLAREMONT RD $949,000 6/25/2007 (New kitchen)
ACT* CLAREMONT RD $949,000 6/28/2007 (Attn. review)
Conclusion: Gotta go to law school or become a cop in Bergen County.
JB #132,
If I was a first time buyer looking to own in North Jersey, then I would conclude that I need to find a job in the New York financial industry in order to afford a nice place.
“Wall Street Bonuses Set New Record”
http://www.osc.state.ny.us/press/releases/dec06/121906b.htm
So what happens when those high paying police positions get cut?
Booker extends buyout to cops, firefighters
Newark Mayor Cory Booker now plans to offer buyout packages to the city’s highest-paid police and firefighters, in an attempt to avert layoffs.
The city, which is facing a $180 million deficit, has already offered buyouts to about 3,000 of Newark’s 5,000 employees, but uniformed police and firefighters were initially excluded from the offer. With few employees taking the offer, Booker today extended the buyout plan.
“We need more police officers, but we may not need the expensive, high-ranking police officers,” he said at a news conference in City Hall today. “If some of the high-ranking officers take the buyout, we can hire one or two officers at a lower pay and still save.
Go where? If I can convince wife (the hardest part), I might just take my down payment in a few years and retire overseas….some place with sunshine, beer and cricket (the sport).
To hell with buying a house…. :)
Can someone please list some towns that employ $200,000/yr police officers?
jb
JB #137,
In the suburbs, a couple mailbox thefts go unreported. In Newark, the murder rate rises.
>>Very few and limited decent houses.
realnj don’t bother people with your on the ground visual inspection of all the ‘inventory’. it doesn’t fit the general consensus on the RE market.
dreamtheaterr,
Enjoy da islands, mon.
dreamtheaterr,
Check out South Africa, Australia, and Trinidad & Tobago. These places meet each of your requirements while benefiting from the natural resources boom, so economic opportunity is plentiful.
Remember, ‘it’s not what you make, it’s what you keep’.
Take out taxes (federal, state, FICA, AMT for the fortunate folks, property tax) and anyone around this area works pretty much the first 4 months of the year for free.
Salaries are very competitive for cops with tenure considering that in many NJ suburbantowns, after 6 or 7 years, you will make in excess of $90k as a cop. No Master’s degree required.
There is a reporter with the Bergen Record, Carolyn Salazar, who follows the police-related beat. Last year she wrote an article about how much cops earn in NJ and she quoted a few figures from towns like Paramus and Hackensack where the cops earn in excess of $90k after 5-6 years on the force. If someone has access to the Record’s archives, you will find the article sometime in early 2006.
That being said, I don’t know a single cop who isn’t working some other job, with the most common second jobs being Realtor or running a cash business. Drive around Union County and you will scratch your head in wonder as you see NJ State Police vehicles and local town police vehicles parked in the driveways of McMansions and expensive older housing stock. Yes, their wives work (with the most common jobs being… you guessed it – Realtors, or teachers).
I think the point is that at least for suburban officers, there is minimal to no salary discrepancy between them and their masters degree holding neighbors who are not the most highly paid i-bankers or lawyers. These folks are pulling in the same $150k max at their jobs as the cops, only they spent another $80k or more getting graduate degrees.
around here you have to bring in a family income (for 4) of around $250k+ if you want to live comfortably having a standard 4BR colonial in a nice town, have 2 decent cars, go on vacations and enjoy hobbies and such without worrying too much about budgeting.
Just my opinion, but I think either housing prices go down, or this area of the country begins to look like Brazil (and unfortunately, not in the victoria’s secret model sense). You will have no middle class and just extreme wealth and poverty. doesn’t sound pleasant
This has got to be one of the most negative rating actions I’ve seen yet.
Fitch Takes Various Rating Actions on New Century 2006-S1
The collateral in the 2006-S1 series consists entirely of fixed-rate mortgage loans secured by second liens on residential mortgages extended to subprime borrowers. This transaction is 16 months seasoned. The pool factor (current mortgage loan principal outstanding as a percentage of the initial pool) currently stands at 74.33%. The cumulative losses on this transaction are 3.84% of original pool balance.
As of June 2007, the overcollateralization (OC) was $15,834,192 (6.81% of current collateral balance) with a target of $21,103,260(9.08% of current collateral balance). The 60+ delinquencies are 23.78% of current collateral balance and out of these, the loans that are delinquent more than six months (including loans in bankruptcy, foreclosures and real estate owned) are approximately 16.15% of current collateral balance. The 60+ delinquencies include foreclosures of 0.26% and real estate owned (REO) of 0.02%.
The delinquencies and cumulative losses experienced by this trust are significantly higher than was initially expected. Approximately $37.5 million of the delinquent loans (16.15% of current collateral balance) are past due six months or more. Typically, non-performing second lien loans would be charged off at 6 months (or 180 days). However, no such action has yet taken place. If such a charge off were to occur, Fitch believes that not only would the OC be fully depleted but also that some of the subordinate classes would incur principal write downs as these delinquent loans are charged off.
I thought all the hot new teachers just married the rich divorced dads. I think I saw that on fox five news.
Anyhow, I am off to the country club tonight where the late 40’s sons of all the first generation Irish families in the Bronx and first generations itailian families from brooklyn and first generation jewish families from the lower east side will enjoy a private fireworks show and gourmet dinner and drive home in their Escalades and Mercedes and maybe I will ponder the fact that no one makes money anymore and can afford a house.
Maybe I will hit P-Diddy’s white party this weekend to do further research into low incomes.
Or the private race track they just built in the catskills for all the newly rich so they can race their porsches and italian sports cars on the weekend.
Salaries are up!!! They are going to wreck havoc on inflation soon and it will be a big problem. Everyone can’t get a 50K raise and prices stay the same.
By 2009 I will be saying 200K gets you a used Taurus and a POS cape or I will saying the Fed is jacking rates to slow inflation and we will all be unemployed making donuts.
around here you have to bring in a family income (for 4) of around $250k+ if you want to live comfortably having a standard 4BR colonial in a nice town, have 2 decent cars, go on vacations and enjoy hobbies and such without worrying too much about budgeting.
You really should add the caveat:
“If you were to buy today.”
skep-tic Says:
You will have no middle class and just extreme wealth and poverty. doesn’t sound pleasant.
I agree. The only middle class people who are staying here are the ones who already bought a house some time ago. Those who didn’t will have no choice but to pack up and leave if they plan on buying a house. San Francisco has been dealing with this problem for a long time
Downgrades:
Too little, too late. These ratings folks were asleep at the wheel when the likes of Enron were imploding, and nothing has changed since.
Try 350K. At 250K I can’t even afford to supersize!!!!
Richard Says:
July 3rd, 2007 at 1:43 pm
around here you have to bring in a family income (for 4) of around $250k+ if you want to live comfortably having a standard 4BR colonial in a nice town, have 2 decent cars, go on vacations and enjoy hobbies and such without worrying too much about budgeting.
#143, Pretorius….exactly what I had in mind!
This discussion has gotten entirely out of hand.
jb
105-
I agree with you on non-US buyers for Manhattan. Recently had a conversation with a broker at a very high end Manhattan firm (sorry, can’t name names), she said the City RE market is being propped up by non-US buyers. Exchange rate is making it attractive. Otherwise, it would be a very different story.
Not sure if that has impact on most of NNJ?
JM
Jamey, your post on politics was probably fascinating, but since this is a real estate blog, you’ll have to excuse me for not reading.
You can look up the salary of every public employee here:
http://www.nj.com/news/bythenumbers/
jb
Skep-tic,
It has already happened in Los Angeles, where gangsterism is epidemic and the murder rate is roughly double what it is in New York City and North Jersey. Meanwhile, the rich live like kings there and the middle class has moved to Phoenix, Denver, and other western cities.
There are signs of a similar phenomenon in New Jersey. Gangsterism is rising and the middle class is moving out of state, mainly to the Southeast. The rich people have jobs in the New York financial industry and they’re doing fine.
“Can someone please list some towns that employ $200,000/yr police officers?”
All of Bergen county, and Westfield.
pre,
So what happens to second/third tier communities in your proposed scenario?
jb
All of Bergen county, and Westfield.
BC Chief Schmidig isn’t even making $200k.
jb
skeptic #133,
I dont know if I agree;
190K after taxes is about 10k a month even after maxing out your 401k. Even with 3500 in rent and 1500 in loans, a first year associate in their mid 20’s has 5K a month in disposable income.
Family income of $250k annually is fine so long as you are not buying a house that Clot is selling because he will squeeze every last cent out of you. As long as you buy a home from a FSBO or 99% of the other Realtors in the state who are inept, you will be fine cause then you can get a ‘deal’.
The discussion today has been too interesting to go back and beat a dead horse but since I have a moment, what I understand from Clot’s last word on yesterdays debate was that you will certainly get a better price for your home as a seller if you use a Realtor as good as Clot. I combine this with the information he has shared that he is better than 95-99% of most other Realtors (I may have the percentage slightly off).
I can interview Realtors from now till the end of time but if I only have a 5% chance that I will find and hire an agent of the caliber of our esteemed commentator Clotpoll, then that seems like a great reason to go FSBO. So, thanks for proving my point.
By the way, any opinion on the fsbomadison study?
“In our sample, the average sale price of homes that sell on FSBO is higher than the
average sale price of homes that sell with a Realtor…” It is based on your favorite kind of sales; closed ones.
http://tinyurl.com/3y3rx8
JB #162 – see: sarcasm.
:)
#158
Great site… just found out that any cop with some time in is clearing $100k in my Southern BC town. I know all of them and what they do on a daily basis, not a bad gig. Oh, and apparently the garbage men clear $55k.
Rich– thanks for listing on Ridgewood home. I assume attn. review means attorney review == of course, the one home we find under a million (and just barely) that is not “yucky” in Ridgewood, and it appears it may get taken. of course, we can hope the proposed buyer is only trying to get toxic financing and it falls through.
ADA,
I’m not saying it’s a pauper’s salary, I’m just saying you are not rich when you make that in NYC. Just about anywhere else in the country, you would be (which is why many people in America think such pay is outlandish). A 25 yr old can have a good time in NYC on that money, or save a decent amount for the long term. If you have a couple of kids on that income, however, I think it is difficult
From Reuters:
Ratings firms’ shares may suffer more from subprime
Investing in Wall Street’s credit ratings cops was one of the decade’s sure bets for beating the market, but as the turmoil in subprime mortgages spreads to other markets and triggers hedge fund problems, the shine is coming off that play.
Upheaval in bonds linked to subprime mortgages is damping down issuance and cutting into a lucrative stream of business for bond rating agencies Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch.
Revenue declines at the biggest two ratings agencies — Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s — could cause heartburn for Moody’s Corp. (MCO.N: Quote, Profile, Research), and to a lesser extent S&P parent McGraw-Hill Cos. Inc. (MHP.N: Quote, Profile, Research)
It could be all the more severe if disgruntled bond investors sue rating agencies.
“One would have to say that securities issuance could really start to drop off in areas like structured finance. I’m avoiding (Moody’s) stock because of that,” said Anton Schutz, a portfolio manager at Mendon Capital, which focuses on financial firms. Other investors are paring down their positions, or selling them, in a bet they will fall.
“This discussion has gotten entirely out of hand.”
Totally bizzare. I guess the 20 plus straight months of negative savings is fabricated. Record margin interest? Another exaggeration. Certainly everyone is maxing out their 401k’s or IRA’s.
Skep,
agreed a couple kids can be huge cash cow. I’m a 7th year, have one kid and cant seem to save nearly as much as I would like.
>>a first year associate in their mid 20’s has 5K a month in disposable income.
if you’ve ever lived in NYC as a single guy you realize that amount of money doesn’t get you far. being in NYC you’re probably running with the crowd a bit. you know what that costs? one night at a few hot spots with your lady friends (and no i’m not talking about a date or girlfriend) and you can drop $150-$200. to keep up with the fashion changes you’re looking at at least $1k a month. vacations playing golf, hitting the shore/hamptons, etc. you’re looking at another $1000-$1500 a month. remember being single you dole out much more cash than others.
I fear that I am coming off like a d#uchebag (more so than normal). My only point in discussing salary info was to say that what would be considered very high income most places is not near NYC (agreeing with John here). I am not from the area originally, so this strikes me as problematic. Where I’m from originally, there aren’t many really rich people or really poor people. Everyone is kind of the same, more or less. I know wealth around NYC has always been more stratified than most places, but it seems to have intensified in recent years. There used to be middle class people in even the faciest areas (they are still there, but old). Now one has to be very high income to buy anywhere. Whether this can continue is the big question
On day’s like these I wonder exactly why I still check this site out.
Happy fourth my dear bloggers.
Looking forward to the Knicks Season as I upgraded my tickets today to sit right behing the NY bench.
Zach Randolph was a steal but considering the posse he’ll bring to the game I’m not sure if I’ll be wearing my Rolex to the game.
I’m hopping he’ll invite some strippers at least. That’ll be fun.
JB #161,
I will assume that you are thinking of inner ring suburbs to New Jersey cities, such as Bloomfield, Roselle Park, and Garfield. These towns are characterized by borders with inner cities and a housing stock consisting of many 2-4 family homes.
These suburbs are in a bad position.
In these towns, many long-term owners will decide to rent instead of sell, and new buyers will tend to have equal or lower educational attainment compared to the sellers. The rising proportion of renter households and a rising number of rental households where education isn’t important are the two key indicators that a town’s relative position is declining.
However, in the towns I just described, home prices will typically outperform at the peak of the residential real estate cycle as urbanites decide to fulfill their American dream by using subprime debt to buy homes in the inner suburbs. These buyers can only buy at the peak because this is when the financing becomes available.
The North Jersey towns in the best position are Hudson County waterfront areas and the Shore, although new supply is a problem in Hudson County. These areas are positioned to benefit from secular trends of urban living, in the case of waterront Hudson County, and second homes, in the case of the Shore.
The towns I am worried about are the inner ring suburbs I described and the outer suburbs having a painful commute to New York. Suburbs having stable school systems, an attractive housing stock (more Colonials and fewer Cape Cods), and a convenient commute to Manhattan should do better.
Richard,
You’re right to some extent however I can tell you that when I was a first year and single in NYC for the most part I didnt have the time to spend the extra money I was making.
#173 skep-tic
I think the salary talk is great, I wish the blog had more of it. It helps to give an idea of what you’re up against.
For example, it could be very easy to think you make decent money, when you actually don’t. But without these types of discussions, you would never know.
Speaking of Real Estate agents, I sent an e-mail a day or so ago to the one I’m working with now about a property I might like to have a look at. This house has been on MLS for going on ten months now. Here’s what she wrote back:
Imagine if this was your house, sitting on the market for ten months and your listing agent was dicking around like this?
#157 Unrealtor
Correction. This blog is about gang violence.
“Zach Randolph was a steal but considering the posse he’ll bring to the game I’m not sure if I’ll be wearing my Rolex to the game.”
Make,
I heard Score’s was adding staff in anticipation of.
#173 Except for the ones who bought, who did not even have to prove they had an income.
Good time to bring up this point again.
—————————–
This blog does not represent the “front lines” of the market. No one who reads this is going to be convinced in either direction. If you are trying to convince someone that prices will either go up or go down, you are wasting your time trying to do it here.
Does anyone really think a buyer is going to sit out of the market because he reads one of Booyaaa! Bob’s comments? Do you think anyone decides to go out and buy a house in Westfield when they read something Richard might write?
While the site does get an enormous amount of readership, make no mistake, this website can’t change the market. A single bullish or bearish article in a local paper reaches more eyeballs than this site.
There is no war raging here, you are wasting your time if you think you can move the market in either direction by posting something here.
Senseless arguments that are geared towards trying to change some mythical buyer or seller’s mind is simply wasted text.
—————————–
jb
#151 Than most of Bergen county will be empty. All other people will work in NYC for 200k or more.
I give up, you guys are delusional.
#141 So again all the inventory is bad, sounds like you are the flip side of what you accuse us of.
All the houses I list in all those BC towns, and every one of them is crap. Just like the 200 crap boxes in Westfield.
>>ooking forward to the Knicks Season as I upgraded my tickets today to sit right behing the NY bench.
if we all had even 10% of the BS capability that Isaiah Thomas imbues we’d be much richer because of it. a charlatan if there ever was one.
Who said there was nothing in BC under a mil?
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/364579404.html
Here’s another. So hot, it’s even available for rent.
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/344610826.html
cops in Nassau and Suffolk are among some of the highest if not THE highest paid in the COUNTRY. NYC among the worse (taking cost of living into consideration).
Cops in those counties could make 150-200k after 10 years with overtime, etc…
BC,
There seems to be considerably better “value” at the upper-end of the market right now. Granted, overpriced, but it seems those high-end dollars go much further than the low-end ones.
jb
From Reuters:
US home buyers favored fixed loans in H2 2006 -MBA
.S. home buyers swung more heavily to fixed-rate mortgages in the second half of 2006 from the first half of last year, reflecting rising interest rates, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Tuesday.
The volume of loans created in the second half rose, driven up by borrowers switching out of adjustable-rate loans that were resetting at much higher rates, the industry trade group said.
“With short-term rates increasing in the second half of 2006 relative to the first half of the year and a large number of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) facing resets into higher payments fixed-rate mortgage products increased in popularity both for first liens and second liens,” it said in a report.
Mortgage creation rose by 11 percent in terms of dollar amount and 19.4 percent based on loan count, the MBA said. Home purchase volume rose 2.9 percent in dollars and 7.6 percent by loan count. Refinancing volume jumped 22.4 percent in dollars and 38.7 percent by loan count.
The MBA said that mortgages to prime borrowers represented about 62 percent of loans created in the second half, subprime was about 18 percent, Alt-A loans were around 17 percent and 3 percent were government-issued loans.
First-time home buyers represented nearly 27 percent of the mortgage volume in the second half, the same as in the first half. Their average loan size was $197,044, less than the average of $228,547 for other buyers.
…
In a separate report specifically on subprime mortgages, which are extended to borrowers with poor credit, the MBA said the percentage of those loans used by first-time buyers rose to 15 percent in the second half from 12 percent in the first half. The share of subprime loans used for repeat and first-time home purchases rose to 47 percent from 46 percent.
The MBA said ARMs were heavily used by borrowers taking subprime mortgages, comprising nearly 75 percent of loans created in the second half, up from 67 percent in the first half.
…
More than half of subprime loans, 55 percent, were for refinance purposes. That was the same share as in the first six months of last year. Of those refinancings, 87 percent were to take extra cash above the size of the mortgage, up from 86 percent in the first half.
Some 72 percent of subprime mortgages were originated through the broker channel in the second half of last year, up 3 percent from the prior half, the MBA said.
It might be a good place to point out that Grim posted some info recently that 70% of all New Jersey Households make less than $52k a year.
70% less than $52k.
It bears repeating – not everyone in New jersey is bringing in big bucks. In fact most people aren’t. Those households making $200k and up number only around 5% of the total – higher probably than other states, but still not that much.
#193 lisoosh
I hope you’re right. Do you know where that info is? I’d like to see it.
Of course, it makes you wonder what is right. On one hand, we have “70% make less than $52k”. Then you have John saying that everyone is loaded.
Ooops, remembered incorrectly. Here is the link and quote:
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2007/06/poll_says_nj_cost_of_living_ri.html
“The poll found 72 percent of New Jersey households earning below $50,000 a year and 64 percent of those earning between $50,000 and $100,000 said their incomes cannot keep pace with the cost of living. So did 44 percent of those earning more than $100,000.
Most households earning more than $100,000 require a second income to reach that level, the survey found.
Overall, 46 percent of New Jersey households have two or more incomes, including 29 percent of those earning below $50,000 a year, 48 percent of those earning $50,000 to $100,000 and 72 percent of those earning more than $100,000.”
It still paints a very different picture of New Jersey than everyone bringing in $200k apiece. The reality is that most are struggling and most people in high priced homes in expensive neighbourhoods couldn’t afford their homes if they had to buy today.
I believe the cencus numbers were something like average household income (not individual) in New Jersey is around $85k.
Here is an interesting page on Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Jersey_locations_by_per_capita_income
lisoosh–
I wonder what the numbers would look like if you focused on the areas within commuting distance of NYC and backed out all of the people on welfare. Still not as high as some might claim, but probably 2-3X higher than that $52,000 figure
Glen,
Not sure where the lisoosh gets his data but it seems wildly inaccurate. Maybe he mixed up New Jersey and New Mexico. It might be a good idea for lisoosh to provide a link to his data next time.
Here is the real data. New Jersey median household income was $61,672 in 2005, which ranked the state first in the nation.
Median income in New Jersey for 4-person households was $82,406. The state ranked #1 on this metric, too.
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/acscpsinccomp.html
People diminish their credibility when they attempt to argue that New Jerseyans aren’t rich. New Jersey is the richest state in the richest country in the history of the world.
“richest country in the history of the world.”
Also the largest debtor nation in the world. How’s your global purchasing power these days?
The wikipedia link is much more meaningful.
Ranked by Median Household Income:
Town/County/Per Capita Median/Household Median
1 Rockleigh Bergen $48,935 $152,262
2 Essex Fells Essex $77,434 $148,173
3 Mountain Lakes Morris $65,086 $141,757
4 Mendham Township Morris $61,460 $136,174
5 Tewksbury Township Hunterdon $65,470 $135,649
6 Saddle River Bergen $85,934 $134,289
7 Franklin Lakes Bergen $59,763 $132,373
8 Millburn Essex $76,796 $130,848
9 Alpine Bergen $76,995 $130,740
10 Ho-Ho-Kus Bergen County $63,594 $129,900
11 Upper Saddle River Bergen $57,239 $127,635
12 Woodcliff Lake Bergen $53,461 $123,022
13 Rumson Monmouth $73,692 $120,865
14 Montgomery Township Somerset $48,699 $118,850
15 North Caldwell Essex $48,249 $117,395
16 Chester Township Morris $55,353 $117,298
17 Princeton Junction Mercer $44,113 $116,668
18 West Windsor Township Mercer $48,511 $116,335
19 Holmdel Township Monmouth County $47,898 $112,879
20 Far Hills Somerset County $81,535 $112,817
“#176 Let me inform you about Blue Ribbon.
1. The program deos not exist any more, in fact it was eliminated almost 10 years ago.”
Really? Tenafly High School received a Blue Ribbon award 2 years ago from the Department of Education.
Lisoosh,
Thank you for posting the link.
I disagree that “most are struggling” in New Jersey. Maybe you have lived most of your life in New Jersey and therefore cannot relate the household wealth situation in other states to the situation here.
When I moved to New Jersey to attend college, the first thing I noticed was the amount of wealth broadly distributed throughout this state. This is backed up by the poverty statistics, which routinely show New Jersey at the bottom along with several New England states and Minnesota.
How come so many of you guys have access to the MLS? I thought it was only for realtors. I know all of you with acess are not realotrs so please tell me how you have access, including you JB.
I think what’s much more meaningful is looking at the median income of today’s buyers in the towns in which you’re searching, rather than homeowners.
It simply does not matter what the household incomes are of the people who already own homes. It’s the household incomes of the people who are buying that really matter since they are ones setting the market right now, and for the foreseeable short- to mid-term future.
testing
Just curious, how do so many of you have access to the MLS? I thought it was only for realtors and I know that all of you are not agents….
“cops in Nassau and Suffolk are among some of the highest if not THE highest paid in the COUNTRY. NYC among the worse (taking cost of living into consideration).”
Bergen County cops are the highest paid in the nation, according to federal statistics.
I thought it was only for realtors. I know all of you with acess are not realotrs so please tell me how you have access, including you JB.
BL,
I have access because I am a real estate agent.
jb
Donald,
I swear I’ll ban you if you don’t stop posting under multiple aliases.
jb
“You will have no middle class and just extreme wealth and poverty. doesn’t sound pleasant”
I got news for you, this has already happened in many parts of the state. Take Hoboken and Jersey City for instance. You have all the NY transplants buying luxury condos near the water and then you have the long time residents who live in thse fire trap buildings in the middle of the ghetto.
“I swear I’ll ban you if you don’t stop posting under multiple aliases.”
Sorry, but I thought you already banned me. Why were all of my posts stuck in moderation. Since last night, I was unable to post a single thing. Can you please fix this so that I can go back to my old name, which is what I want to do????
There is nothing for me to fix. Are you getting “Error 406 – Not Acceptable”? Two people emailed me yesterday telling me they were getting those errors while posting. Otherwise if you were falling into moderation, it is because of the keyword filter. Most everyone falls into the keyword filter trap inadvertantly. Usually a simple “jb unmoderate me” will let me know to release it.
jb
I’ve posted this link before, but I think it is appropriate to post it again given today’s salary discussion:
http://www.mymoneyblog.com/archives/2007/02/do-you-make-a-six-figure-salary-share-your-story.html
Yes, the readership of this “My Money Blog” does skew towards the well-educated, web savvy crowd that probably thinks about how much they make more than the average person, but I think it is definitely a good read. I would never have guessed how much people could make in certain professions.
My posts said “Your post is awaiting moderation” next to my name. Thanks for the advice. I was only posting under different names because my usual name was not working. Sorry about that.
#204
I agree and the big question for me is whether recent buyers really make so much money or whether they were mostly using insane leverage. I tend to think for every 1 of the former there are at least 2 of the latter, but of course this may just be wishful thinking
I’d like to do a salary poll here..
jb
JB,
Please unmoderate me.
Pretorius,
Firstly, you are a little rude and presume a lot.
I’ve lived in California, New Jersey, several parts of the UK and the Middle East, so yes, I have experienced other standards and costs of living.
The point is that John has posted many times that he believes that huge numbers of New Jerseyans make well over $100k and households make well over $200k.
The very census numbers you posted – median HOUSEHOLD income of $82k paints a very different picture.
The figures that JB posted of personal and household income for some of the richest towns in New Jersey also show no personal income median over $100k and household medians just over $100k, at the most $152k for a very rich area.
There is no question that the median in New Jersey is higher than elsewhere, or that there are some very rich people here – there are. There is plenty of evidence though that incomes are not keeping up with expenses, that the vast majority of people can not afford the lifestyle commensurate with their income, education or social standing.
That puts New Jersey in a crisis. High priced lawyers don’t want to live in Patterson. If the people who can’t afford to live here to the standard they deserve choose to leave, New Jersey loses – the available pool of qualified buyers diminishes even more and that puts even more downward pressure on prices and standards.
Not everyone in NJ is making six figures, even in the high end towns, the current cost levels are unsustainable.
for those with access…. can you tell me the fate of:
240 paramus rd ridgewood
481? eastgate rd ridgewood
as always, thanks in adv.
sl
I swear, I never thought about pay as it seems some folks do here. As if it makes so much of a difference. More than your other decisions in life.
Once, after about six or seven years at a larger accounting firm, I felt in my gut I was underpaid. I wasn’t saving what I thought I should be.
I was probably accurate in my feeling, since I found a new job in three days at a 50% pay increase. When that job turned into slavery, I found another. Took more time…7 business days.
So there is an upside to living in NJ/NY/PA/DE. Maybe as important as having the family close.
You can always go fishing. Lotsa good fishing around here.
Sorry to do this but can anybody (yeah, that means you JB, KL, Rich, Clot, etc.)
tell me the DOM for 722261? Thanks in advance.
Found a couple of good pages on the website for the department of labor:
Wage Data:
http://www.wnjpin.net/OneStopCareerCenter/LaborMarketInformation/lmi23/index.html
Really interesting is a PDF file on the bottom of the page, listing all sorts of salery data, from CEO’s to lawyers to mechanics to secretaries and teachers. It lists the numbers of each profession, the median salary and the quarter percentiles so that you can see what the top people and the bottom people make.
The numbers are a lot lower than many people think.
JB
I have seen salary polls and investment polls ( ie where is your money and how much do you have ) but they are asked to post anonymously. HP does it.
KL
Sorry for reposting this, it may have gotten lost in the shuffle over the weekend. Anyone with MLS access know the fate of 715062 in Edison. Thanks in advance.
Pat–#220
Thanks for saying it. This is one of those nights where I read the posts and feel like getting out my tiny violin. All this arguing about other people’s salaries…which has no bearing at all on one’s own. And I notice no one’s posting their own salary for comparison purposes, either to prove or disprove all the stats flying through cyberspace.
Still Looking,
Paramus Road went under contract June 15. Estimated closing date is July 10
Eastgate Road went under contract June 27.
Estimated closing date is July 19
Pat,
Unless it’s NJMLS I can’t help ya!
Rich
JB,
There seems to be considerably better “value” at the upper-end of the market right now. Granted, overpriced, but it seems those high-end dollars go much further than the low-end ones.
I’ve made the same observation within Bergen.
JB,
I like your idea of a salary poll but don’t you think on a site like this where folks have an agenda to PROVE that EVERYONE makes 200k you are going to get a lot of false reports? As peacenow points out, everyone’s individual situation is different, in NJ we have a range of salaries, a range of comfort levels re: debt load & need for diversification of assets, etc. All makes for a range of homebuyers, some of whom are not going to buy until this thing works itself out or at the very least finds that “special house”. End of story.
my 2 cents.
afe
not exactly a scientific poll, but I know exactly 3 couples who have bought homes in the past two years (the rest consider themselves priced out or believe prices will continue to drop). All are 29-31 yrs old.
The first bought a nice 1 BR coop in Manhattan. The guy is in commercial RE and the girl works for a non-profit. The price was high enough that I suspect family money was involved, but the guy may make more than I think.
The second couple bought a 1 BR coop in Brooklyn. He is in marketing and she is in interior design. I’d guess they make in the low to mid 100s combined. Their apartment is not so lavish that you wonder how they afford it.
The third couple bought a place in a nice suburb. The guy is a banker and does very well, and his wife is in marketing and does well too. I’d guess that combined they might make $600-800k. Again, not a case where you wonder how they afford it.
To what degree these people are representative of anything, I don’t know
Could someone with gsmls access give me the status on mls 2366226? I could have sworn it went under contract months ago. Thanks!
rich in nnj, thanks! prices??? if you can?
just curious.
as always, thanks!
sl
#2366226 – Still UC, anticipated closing is 7/16.
jb
My apologies to those bored with the topic. I took the table I mentioned earlier and made a list of mean salaries in NJ for different job catagories.
Info on NJ salaries (not income as that can include investments etc.)
NJ Dept Labor Statistics as of 2006
Occupation/# Empl/ Mean Hourly/Mean Salary
Total/ 3,917,310/ $21.15/ $43,970
Management/ 183,520/ $52.85/ $109,930
Bus&FinanceOps/ 193,530/ $30.80/ $64,100
Computer/ 117,820/ $36.65/ $76,190
Arch&Engin/ 57,000/ $32.90/ $68,410
LifeSocSci/ 42,160/ $31.40/ $65,340
CommSocServ/ 53,660/ $21.15/ $44,000
Legal/ 32,570/ $43.50/ $90,470
Edu,Train,Lib/ 259,070/ $23.20/ $48,230
Arts/ 46,900/ $22.20/ $46,220
Healthcare/ 197,410/ $33.30/ $69,270
HealthSupport/ 104,740/ $12.55/ $26,100
ProtService/ 110,650/ $20.95/ $43,600
FoodPrep/ 259,230/ $9.55/ $19,860
GroundsMain/ 132,980/ $11.85/ $24,660
PersCare/ 114,370/ $12.60/ $26,260
Sales&Rel/ 421,170/ $18.80/ $39,060
Admin/ 755,740/ $15.80/ $32,810
FarmFor/ 4,400/ $10.90/ $22,710
Constuction/ 142,910/ $23.90/ $49,690
Inst.Repair/ 144,980/ $20.55/ $42,760
Production/ 223,340/ $14.95/ $31,070
Transport/ 319,170/ $14.35/ $28,810
It should be noted that there is a great deal of variation within groups. Doctors make $150+ while nurses around $60. Legal is split between lawyers making $100k+ and law clerks making $40k.
Teachers average $69k, Police $70k.
It should also be noted that this does not include overtime or under the table earnings, so there is some variation.
However, it does show that salaries in NJ are nowhere near the $200k mark that John previously mentioned as a standard.
Can anyone make >150K in IT? I feel like I’ve been slogging my behind off for about 8 years now and I haven’t even cracked 100k yet. Is this as good as it gets in IT???
I read about people making 250K and I just wonder… what do I have to do to get there? Is it even possible in IT?
seneca (164)-
If I’m in the top 1% of Realtors in NJ, that’s still a large group. Every area of this state features a small cadre of good agents who do a terrific job. Many of us are in contact with one another. From time to time, people on this board contact me for referrals to these other agents (I happily give them, too…and will not accept compensation for it). Because there are so few of us, the word tends to get out, via professional groups, service organizations and word-of-mouth…so your theory that finding a top agent is an exercise in diminishing returns is laughable. Even if finding a good agent were so hard, the results justify the effort.
Perhaps you are more interested in reinforcing your obvious confirmation bias against Realtors than you are in encountering the best among us. And- admittedly- it is all too easy to meet the worst we have to offer. It is painful to have one’s most sacred shibboleths pounded against the rocks and smashed to pieces. I’ve had plenty of times in my life in which I was forced to understand that if I truly wanted to profit from an opportunity, I first had to admit I was wrong. Correspondingly, I must admit it is a failure of my profession that we have alienated so many people- just like you- who are now entrenched in holding such a dim view of all of us, regardless of qualification.
As to the research report on the outsized FSBO success in Madison, WI, many here immediately noted that this work is neither peer-reviewed nor thorougly-vetted in any way. I have no doubt that there are anomalous markets out there in which FSBO’s- and the mechanisms that loosely organize (to the extent FSBOs can be organized) and exploit the inefficiencies of an ad hoc selling environment- might experience greater “success” than agent-represented properties.
I have actually seen mini-examples of this in certain clusters and communities (mostly condo) in Central NJ. Anywhere in which FSBO has taken hold as the preferred method of marketing usually features the long-term suppression of price appreciation, much to the detriment of the community. More interesting is the Amway-like way in which residents of such communities hold to the party line when it becomes statistically-obvious that the community’s preferred mode of marketing is leaving its sellers in the dust.
make (175)-
Five assorted carjackers rounded up off 11th Av could beat the Knicks.
#232 – thanks JB!
Uh, sync
…develop a better password retention and maintenance process and get NJGal to work on the patent for you for free for a 20% cut when sold.
…do consulting part-time. Call a temp agency.
…work with the guy on here who said he was an engineer. Email him. Develop a button that children wear that is a camera phone you can upload pictures from whenever you want, on demand. Put one on every kid in daycare with a direct upload to parents’ phones via PIN. Come to think of it..that should be the law, not just a possibility.
You are unlimited in your options.
What would somebody in Arkansas think if he happened upon this thread?
“I am definitely NOT taking that job in New Jersey.”
What would somebody in Arkansas think if he happened upon this thread?
They would think we were 1) crazy, 2) liars, or possibly 3) both.
Work 60-80 hour weeks for the privilege of paying 1M for what they can get for 300K -for 35 hr weeks and drinks at 4 pm on Fridays?
Still Looking,
The last asking price for Paramus Road was $524,900.
(This was the one with the $512k lien on the property. It’s bank owned now and the original owner was asking $925k)
The last asking price for Eastgate Road was $649,000.
Remind me around July 20th and I’ll look up the sold price.
Rich
Rich, thanks!!
re income. some pediatricians make 70-80K (yes, it is true.) some anesthesiologists make 300-400K
There is a boatload of variation of physician income.
sl
not exactly a scientific poll, but I know exactly 3 couples who have bought homes in the past two years (the rest consider themselves priced out or believe prices will continue to drop). All are 29-31 yrs old.
I know 2 couples.
1 couple was simply a greater fools. They bought in late 2006, still believing the housing market was on fire and their house was their ticket to riches and they were buying on a dip. They also believed Corzine’s 20% tax cut had solved the property tax problem.
1 couple was living in one parent’s basement to save money. They dodn’t believe in renting…the whole throwing away money thing. For them it was buy something or get divorced.
Are there any anesthaesiologists out there that can jack me full of haldol?
What a way to spend the 4th!
Don’t break out those sparklers…in NJ, just having them can earn you a jail term.
The only anesthesiologist I know left NJ for FL earlier this year. Said Jersey was too expensive. Go figure?
jb
Can anyone make >150K in IT?
IT management, sales, or consulting. Or as Pat mentioned, entrepreneurship.
If you don’t yet have an MS, I’d suggest taking the time. If you do have a technical MS, I’d suggest supplementing it with an MBA.
Or just come up with a neat website and sell it to Google.
jb
JB,
About the technical MS – I’ve wondered if it’s worth it because I work with people who are MS in CS and we’re in the same pay band. What opportunities, in your opinion, will open up if I have the MS? Or do you mean an MS in something other a technology discipline?
“There seems to be considerably better “value” at the upper-end of the market right now. Granted, overpriced, but it seems those high-end dollars go much further than the low-end ones.”
But what good is this if hardly anyone can afford these high end homes? So what if a $7 million home is better value than one for $800k? How many people can afford the $7 million?
There are fewer high end buyers so that is why these homes offer the most abng for the buck.
“There is a boatload of variation of physician income.”
Definitely true. I have 6 doctors in my family. Their annual salaries range from about $50,000 all the way to $450,000.
Don’t break out those sparklers…in NJ, just having them can earn you a jail term.
Clot, I know certain people who are risking it. I know certain people who just set off a few tanks and a couple chickens.
“Salaries are very competitive for cops with tenure considering that in many NJ suburbantowns, after 6 or 7 years, you will make in excess of $90k as a cop. No Master’s degree required.”
No master’s degree required? Try “No degree required.”
“I see no shortgage of inventory, and again not a whole lot selling.”
There is a HUGE shortage of inventory in Alpine in the under $1 million price range. Only 2 houses for sale! 2 lousy houses!!!!! Both of them are tear downs.
Disregard #254. There are NO HOUSES listed in Alpine for under $1 million. Glut of inventory? Where?
Speaking of net worths, here is some late breaking news:
Bill Gates is no longer the richest person in the world:
http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/carlos-slim-becomes-worlds-richest-man/20070703105809990001?ncid=NWS00010000000001
#242 Robert the Troll
Found the article myself on cops and pay. Excerpts below from The Record on March 4, 2006:
Headline: For N.J. cops, a degree pays off
Generous perks and high salaries across the state have turned what once was a blue-collar job into a competitive and well-educated profession, police in North Jersey say. Having good instincts and precise shooting skills no longer cuts it: Officers are trying to market themselves by earning master’s degrees, law degrees or doctorates.
…Over the past two decades, ever more police agencies have winnowed large pools of candidates by requiring a college degree. Many also prefer — even require — advanced degrees for promotions.
…At least 10 law enforcement agencies in the state will not hire a recruit without a bachelor’s degree, regardless of background or experience, according to the Police Association for College Education. Four are in Bergen County: Leonia, Montvale, Paramus and the Bergen County Prosecutor’s Office and another is the Hudson County Prosecutor’s Office.
The average police officer in Bergen earns about $90,000 a year after about five years.
Other departments, such as Paterson — where officers begin making $19,700 a year — require only a high school diploma. Some agencies, such as the New Jersey State Police, require an associate’s degree plus two years’ field or military experience.
…In Mahwah, a police officer with several years’ experience sued his department — alleging age discrimination — after he was passed over for a promotion to a less experienced officer with a master’s degree. The department won the case in December 2004.
…Across the nation, the number of police departments requiring an associate’s or bachelor’s degree doubled from 1990 to 2000, the last time a study was conducted, said Louis A. Mayo, founder and executive director of the Police Association for College Education.
In Bergen, one of the country’s most affluent counties, high pay and work stability lead many college graduates to consider a career in policing, said Saddle Brook Police Chief Robert Kugler, vice president of the New Jersey State Association of Chiefs of Police.
“Years ago, people became a police officer because they wanted to do the right thing for the community. Now I’m sure a lot are coming in because the salaries are so high,” Kugler said. “But hopefully they are still coming in because they want to do what’s right. I hope that’s still the reason why they go into police work.”
Although the average police officer’s base salary in Bergen is about $90,000, those with Fort Lee, Bergen County Police, Glen Rock and Saddle Brook, among others, earn well in excess of $100,000 a year, excluding overtime.
And while corporations big and small are phasing out pension plans and retirement benefits nationwide, many police departments continue to offer what some consider generous packages.
To serve, protect and graduate
A sampling of educational requirements and salary ranges for officers in some area police departments.
Haledon – Recently hired officers have two years to complete their bachelor’s degree. Starting pay: about $30,000. Increases to $70,000 after five years.
Paterson – High school diploma or GED required. Starting pay is about $19,700. After five years: $37,000.
Paramus – Bachelor’s degree required. Starting pay: $32,448. After eight years: $92,000.
Leonia – Bachelor’s degree. Starting pay: $32,000. After five years: $87,000.
Hackensack – High school diploma or GED required. Starting pay: $28,645. After five years: $93,392.
Donald,
There are NO HOUSES listed in Alpine for under $1 million. Glut of inventory? Where?
What does the lack of homes under $1M in Alpine have to do with the overall inventory?
Just because you can’t afford a house in Alpine doesn’t mean that the inventory in NJ (or precious Bergen County) isn’t high.
And by the way, it is.
High.
The inventory.
I could prove it… but I figure I’ll do it your way and state opinion as fact.
Better yet.
Homes are barely selling. Only 7 homes sold in Alpine!
Maybe the Duck is onto something. There are no listings in the $1 million+ range in Newark. Major shortage of inventory there.
/Sarcasm Off
#201 Robert Trool: No Blue Ribbon that program was discontinued, period.