This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.
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Sorry for the lack of updates, we’ve been very busy here in Europe. To make things even more complicated, the WiFi in my laptop has decided it would rather not connect to wireless networks any longer..
jb
1: This is not your job ( right? ) so why apologize? The housing market will still be here when you return. Or maybe not…
RE#1:
Excuses, excuses…
You sound like a realtor trying to blame the slow housing market on the unusually hot & humid weather..
pigs!
2007 Selling Season
April 2007-August 2007
Looks like I missed out on the opportunity to sell my house this year. I think that 2008 will bring more hope. If things do not get better next year, then 2009 will DEFINITELY be the year the market turns around. When this decade ends, so will the slump.
American Home Mortgage to Close on Friday
…and they had NO sub prime loans to their name.
“other white meat (230)-
What difference does the “partner” make?
Do you think the place is worth less, because it may be a flip, as opposed to owner-occ?”
Sounds like our renter friend is jealous that the sellers are going to make a nice profit and he wants to use this as an excuse to walk away. The fact that there is a business partner should hae no affect on the sale. The seller is not required to disclose this. Next time you put a bid in on a house, maybe the sller should disclose their SSN and credit card numbers.
I feel bad for realtors in NJ in this market. If I was a realtor barely making money, I would curse out the next buyer who told me to present a lowball offer, quit my job, and then go to the city and a job with Barbara Corcoran. That is where the real estate $$$ is today.
Duck
De-nial aint just a river in Egypt…
Here’s one of bi’s greatest hits:
“bi Says:
July 31st, 2007 at 2:24 pm
AHM at $1.45. down 86%. good time to make quick bucks”
“Duck
De-nial aint just a river in Egypt…”
So the market is NEVER going to get better? Come on, perhaps your the one in de-nial…
#10 Duck
“So the market is NEVER going to get better?”
It’s easier to argue against someone when you pretend they said something that they didn’t say, isn’t it?
Do you always do that when you’re incapable of arguing against what they DID say?
If only I could see the expression of the face of the buyers waiting for me to drastically drop my price, but only to see me raise the price instead! The price does not matter because I was not going to sell this year at the old price anyway so who cares? I might as well have some fun and price the house at $2 million!
Donald, whatever happened to not talking about your home on this site?
I don’t think anyone is waiting for you to do anything with your house, Duck. It’s so damn hideous that dropping that ridiculous price by half won’t be enough. Especially given that the house is on the verge of collapse.
You bought that place as an investment property, didn’t you? Isn’t that why it’s empty now?
Actually, raising the price might be a good idea because now baragin hunters will think I am a complete nut job and they would not even dare present me with another lowball.
Is it possible to write in the MLS property description “NO LOWBALL OFFERS?” I am going to do this next year when I re-list.
Duck, the schtick has gotten a little tired. Have you thought of bringing in a fresh writing team?
Duck will you just keep moving the goal posts until you can score a “touchdown” and pay yourself on the back for making a “successful” trade? Rationalization at its finest.
Just keep waiting for that other credit shoe to drop. This fall will come the revelations that all those “prime” adjustables and piggy-back loans are going to default at greater than expected rates.
“You bought that place as an investment property, didn’t you? Isn’t that why it’s empty now?”
No, I bought the house to live in, that is why I am living in the house now!
Duck, please stop talking about your house
“It’s so damn hideous that dropping that ridiculous price by half won’t be enough.”
Well, I guess I am stupid for raising the price then because I have gotten countless offers for $700,000. If I wanted to, I could sell my house for $700k right this second without paying a realtor commission.
“Duck, please stop talking about your house”
Please stop talking about gloom and doom. That goes for everyone here! POSITIVE INFORMATION ONLY!
Quack (6):
We own our home here (Essex County), mortgage paid off, and in no hurry to move. We have family down there, and plan to move down there in 3 to 5 years.
Only hurry was to get it done before September if we were going to do it this year. There was a small delay.
The other two places make an LTV under 50% possible, which was our goal anyway.
A shame you use the word “friend” so cynically.
“No, I bought the house to live in, that is why I am living in the house now!”
So you moved out entirely in order to take the interior photos and then moved back in?!?
Quack, STFU about your collapsing house and house price. No one cares.
The lunatic is on the grass.
Duck,
How many times do you show your home a week/month? Is it a lot of upkeep to keep the place clean and presentable for showings? Why go through this if you are not serious about selling? This seems like a lot of work to do just for sh*ts and giggles, no? Buying and selling is a business transaction. Why all the emotion? As a fellow home owner I honestly want you to sell your home as I will also be in that position one day. How many offers have you received on your property? If none, do you have any idea on what might be scaring people away from making an offer? Price, condition, location?
I guess what I am getting at is if you and the market are at such divergent positions, why put yourself through it all? Buying and selling a home is a major pain in the rear end and last I heard was a cause of many a heart attack. Why put yourself through it if you don’t need to?
crazy how badly RE is tanking
it has finally sunk in with the general populace, and the plunge will pick up speed.
Article from BW:
Bonfire Of The Builders
By rushing into the mortgage business big-time, homebuilders helped fuel the housing crisis
“So you moved out entirely in order to take the interior photos and then moved back in?!?”
What you see in the phots is how I live. I am poor. I live in NJ, so what do you expect? I wish it would jsut colapse already so that I can load up my car with suitcases of insurance money. Now, I am sick of talking about my stupid house.
“I am poor.”
Duck, I would think you could at least afford one chair!
Why are you poor? Lot of bad RE investments?
My ex-wife moved to Dallas a few months ago and she called me last night and told me she is buying a house. She has plenty of money but had to call me to get a copy of her W-2 from 2005 for her mortgage application. Can you imagine, now these mortgage companies want to actually see how much money you make?? The nerve of these people!!! She’s actually buying from a guy who bought the house at a foreclosure sale.
JB,
If you’re around, I have a few posts in moderation. One with sale data for Bergen County.
Rich
This blog, or rather the way this is playing out, made me a non-believer in the efficient market hypothesis. Why is bad news re mortgages and lending coming as a surprise to people only now (resulting in stock market losses this week, as opposed to last year)? Is it because all of a sudden the secondary market stopped buying this junk? Lots of people knew junk was circulating for a long time – bloggers knew by 2005, when the proliferation of bubble blogs began, and insiders knew when they sold out at the peak. Thoughts?
20#, Doyle,
do you have MLS numbers for other two properties? assume your current bid will go through.
The housing slump: How deep is the pain?
A grim forecast has economists wondering how far the collapse will spread to the rest of the economy
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/01/real_estate/subprime_fever_catching/index.htm?postversion=2007080309
“The outlook for the housing market looks bleaker than ever. Foreclosures are skyrocketing. Home prices continue to fall. And forecasts for a recovery keep getting pushed back.”
I think Duck, is laughing his a$$ off at his own posts and that people actully respond to him. I have to give him credit though, if he is not being serious, he is pretty funny.
#30
I couldn’t agree more, although I’ve always thought the efficient market hypothesis was self-evidently a bunch of bunk.
#33 ADA
I used to think that too. Now I think he’s serious. Leaving that uninhabited ugly deathtrap on the market at $869K for years on the wrong side of a bubble is not humorous.
ADA,
And if he is serious he’s what?
A house should have always been a place that the ownner should live in – a home – …rentals are investment properties but lately everyone thought that they could use their homes as investments and try and quick flip..the only problem with that is people still need to live in homes! the math wouldnt make sense to do this for too much longer! so here we are, there are people like ‘duck’ (bagholders like this blog likes to call them) and those that knew something like this buy and flip wouldnt make financial sense…i agree with duck that its going to get better eventually but that ‘eventually’ is a long way away! there will be a definite correction and until then, those that bought in these recent times that couldnt really afford the home in the first place will be trying to make payments on their house and hoping for a turn around – basically chasing the market on its way down! besides, the salaries have not kept up with these ridiculous prices…
the lowest level home (this blog calls them POS Capes) should be the entry level home, correct? i am sorry but salaries of entry level homeowners where nowhere near the salaries needed to live in a 500K+ Cape! so i say let’s correct it…wait the market is already doing that!
#34
My Behavioral Finance professor showed us literally dozens of examples of the efficient market hypothesis being a load of bull poop. The real market is a mix of efficiency, mixed with a large dose of human irrationality. We should get a unifying theory on the stock market right around the same time we get a unifying theory on the universe as a whole.
Those who exploit the inefficiency of the market are the ones who take home the Rolls Royce’s. See private equity, hedge funds, etc.
The BW article is good read:
Elizabeth and Armando Motto are living a real estate nightmare with a new breed of monster: the big homebuilder as lender. In November, 2005, the couple, who have four children, agreed to pay $540,000 for a newly built three-bedroom house in suburban Clarksburg, Md., near Washington, D.C. Rather than send them to a bank, the builder, Beazer Homes USA Inc. (BZH ), offered to provide a mortgage itself in an arrangement of the sort that helped fuel the long housing boom across the country.
But when it appeared that the Mottos might not qualify financially for the loan, things took a troubling turn. Beazer, according to the couple, inflated the pair’s earnings in loan-application documents by incorrectly stating they were collecting rental income from the house they were leaving. “I don’t want to misrepresent myself,” Elizabeth said in e-mail correspondence with Beazer’s outside mortgage service, dated July 14, 2006. But in the end, the couple signed the documents, and soon after they closed on the Clarksburg house.
They now regret it. The Mottos moved to Clarksburg, but they haven’t succeeded in unloading their previous home in Rockville, Md. They have nearly $1 million in mortgage debt on the two dwellings. With $145,000 in family income, Elizabeth says, they are “on the brink of foreclosure” on both houses. “We are so broke.”
Lori M. Steiner, a senior vice-president with Dominion, says in an e-mail that the Dublin (Ohio) company doesn’t discuss individual customers. But Dominion says it diligently reviews each sale to make sure buyers are financially prepared to take on the mortgages they seek. The company says it has done extensive research in the Columbus area and that the spike in foreclosures there reflects broader economic problems that have nothing to do with its financing business. Ohio, hurt by a loss of manufacturing jobs, has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the nation, along with California, Florida, Michigan, and Texas.
Thank god, in NJ we are not manufacturing job hub. Hurray, Wall street will save us.
I dont deal with this professionally so maybe someone else can enlighten me, but I thought hedge funds and private equity (or at least the successful ones) arent “exploiting inefficiency” but rather are making money bc they can do all sorts of neat transactions regular ‘ol mutual funds and other SEC-regulated entities aren’t allowed to do.
Last night, I did a little calculation on a buy versus rent scenario for 12 months trailing. Renting was approx. 40% cheaper than buying after tax, after all expenses (PIT, insurance, PMI, utilities, HOA).
Positive cash flow was funneled back into US and primarily non-US denominated investments for down payment. I would guess we are still 25-30% price drop away for buying to even come into the picture.
Delusional Duck,
If I were a Realtor™, I would be fed up with people like you, fantasizing about getting 2005 peak plus prices when the market is clearly down.
Most agents I talk to are happy to get any offer at this point. When every I go to an open house, I practically get begged to make an offer.
Now, I am sick of talking about my stupid house
Houses aren’t stupid, their occupants on the other hand, well, that’s another story..
Investing at the Moment
by Mr Juggles
IM conversations at leading funds:
Analyst: I think that this maker of ball bearings is quite attractive because of its strong operating momentum, $500mm net cash position, and dirt cheap valuation of 6x fully-loaded FCF.
PM: WHAT IS THEIR SUBPRIME EXPOSURE?!?
Analyst: They don’t own subprime. Or sell houses. Or sell into housing-related markets. Or have variable rate debt.
PM: OK BUT ARE THEY EXPOSUDED TO THE SUBPRIME PRESSURE ON YIELDS?
Analyst: No
PM: I LIKE THE NAME BUT WANT TO OWN IT 10% CHEAPER
Analyst: They’re buying back 10% of shares outstanding this year.
PM: WHAT ABOUT SUBPRIME? ANY EXPOSURE THERE?
Analyst is now offline
JUST CLICKED on to check the conversation and see if i could learn anything.Seems like some big egos herewith nothing to say..I just clicked off.I will wait till Jim gets back.
Ack–my bad–I did not realize pipelinks do not work here.
Try this:
http://forum.brokeroutpost.com/loans/forum/2/148195.htm
Thanks for the link. It’s a fascinating discussion.
One broker’s comment particularly struck me. It went something like “This is tragic…how am I supposed to get a stated income loan for someone with a 675 FICO”?
ROBERT JACKYRA [44],
Offer up your thoughts.
if he’s serious then I have never seen anyone more delusional; although he’s still kind of funny for being so delusional.
ADA,
And if he is serious he’s what?
# Duck Says:
August 3rd, 2007 at 11:48 am
…I wish it would jsut colapse already so that I can load up my car with suitcases of insurance money. …
Your insurance payout would just result in a huge loss, they no longer will pay anywhere near full value.
Bloomberg SPECIAL REPORT: The Insurance Hoax
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&refer=special_report&sid=aIOpZROwhvNI
This blog, or rather the way this is playing out, made me a non-believer in the efficient market hypothesis. Thoughts?
I still believe that markets are efficient, rational and self-correcting over the long term. If they were always rational, they wouldn’t need to be self correcting. Every irrational bubble in the history of markets has returned to the mean (i.e. rational pricing).
Lots of people knew junk was circulating for a long time – bloggers knew by 2005, when the proliferation of bubble blogs began, and insiders knew when they sold out at the peak
True, but that junk was making money for people. If you only care about your annual bonus, what’s the difference to you if it inevitably collapses in the future? You already made your money. If it impacts the broader economy, it’s going to impact you anyway. As an individual I-banker, you might as well take part in the good times while they last.
#38
“See private equity, hedge funds, etc.”
Until they get their hats handed to them as well…
I think there were definitely plenty of people in the investing community who knew that a collapse was coming– the problem was that nobody could say when. My sense is that in many cases, people in these positions ignore momentum at their own peril.
#41 dream
“I would guess we are still 25-30% price drop away for buying to even come into the picture.”
We did the same math and came to the same conclusion.
Renting for at least another year while the cash piles high and the prices plummet.
My point is that as soon as people knew it would “inevitably collapse in the future” prices should have gone down immediately since stock prices are supposed to relect all available information.
The fact that it took until very recently for markets to “price in” this information indicates that stock prices did not reflect all available information.
I think the only explanation for the theory in this environment is that the fact that the secondary market continued buying up this crap is proof that at the time they were sold, it was not “inevitable” that there would be a collapse in the market for securitized shady mortgages.
More parodies? … JB, if you’re around, can you confirm or deny if someone else is spoofing the Duck?
# Duck Says:
August 3rd, 2007 at 11:48 am
“So you moved out entirely in order to take the interior photos and then moved back in?!?”
What you see in the phots is how I live. I am poor. I live in NJ, so what do you expect? I wish it would jsut colapse already so that I can load up my car with suitcases of insurance money. Now, I am sick of talking about my stupid house.
BC,
Thanks for the link about the PPT. I didn’t realize there actually was a committee like that – thought it was an urban legend, like alligators in the sewer.
NJ Patient (#24)
Correct.
The analogy I use to describe the RE markets now is the Coyote running off a cliff in a Roadrunner cartoon: His momentum keeps him moving and his legs are churning wildly. But eventually he looks down, sees the bottom rushing up to crush him, and panics. Or sometimes just resigns himself to the awaiting fate…
Prices in general haven’t declined significantly, even in towns with mounting inventories, because momentum and denial have sustained prices, even though sales are in decline. But now, even with rates stable, the money supply has tightened–the pool of buyers who qualify for any loans, let alone huge ones, is rapidly shrinking. Add in resetting adjustables and other related factors, and there are more homes for fewer buyers. Somewhere, somehow, we’re going to reach a tipping poin. Or maybe we’ve reached it, but won’t be able to pinpoint it till we’re looking back. When sellers realize that they’re racing each other to the bottom, that’s when the real bleeding starts. Not sure when or how long the real declines will start, but my feeling is that we’ve been hovering at or near the peak for nearly two years. Again, mostly due to market ‘inertia,’ if that makes any sense.
Frankly, looking at NJ shore places (cash at the ready), I’ve developed a hypothesis: That the few sellers who have reduced their ask in the past 12 mos are just setting a lower point from which the real declines will begin.
Pooch–
I’m not an expert on this, but there are diff’t versions of the efficient capital markets hypothesis.
Sounds like you’re describing the “strong” version, where all present and future info is priced in. Almost no one believes this theory to be true.
More commonly, people talk about moderate or weak ECMH which, respectively, posit that all present or most present info is priced in.
The weak view I think is the most commonly held view, since all information has a cost to obtain and some information is simply too costly to obtain.
In other words, because perfect info is at least prohibitively expensive and probably impossible to obtain, even collectively and particularly in the short run, there will always be inefficiency in markets, despite the fact that they may be mostly efficient most of the time.
Duck – a house is only worth what someone is willing to pay.
as a follow up point, the mortgage mess I think is pretty illustrative of weak ECMH.
Loan products emerged en mass that had never been tested before. There was widespread fraud. Many people sensed that the models were weak but nothing better existed. In other words, a lot of people had a hunch that things were wrong, but no comprehensive info existed re: default rates, etc. now that this stuff is becoming available, markets are correcting
In the meantime, I am looking forward to having a swimming pool in my yard for next memorial day weekend… :)
(#48) As the Bloomberg article in this post shows, owning has much greater risk of loss than is generally understood. Most people today do not understand how the insurance industry has changed, and that they probably will have to pay 30-60% of repair or rebuilding costs in the event of a catastrophic loss, even if they are insured for “replacement value” – unless they are prepared to litigate in court for years.
This should give pause to any perspective homeowner.
#56 Jamey
to quote Kramer, “You’re freakin’ me out!” I was using that same metaphor for the market the other day.
#56 Jamey
…not to mention that I agree 100% with the rest of your thoughts…
My point is that as soon as people knew it would “inevitably collapse in the future” prices should have gone down immediately
Not necessarily. This is where the “greater fool” hypothesis kicks in.
I know it’s completely irrational and going to collapse.
However, the market has a lot of momentum; there is still a lot of money to be made.
Therefore I’m going to buy-in anyway, even though I know it’s irrationally priced, because I’m smarter than the next guy. I will make my money and get out before the collapse.
#61
Is that a homeowner who appears to get larger as he gets closer?
#64 RentinginNJ
I generally agree with your post below, although what makes this sort of behavior so monumentally stupid with respect to RE is that, unlike stocks, you can’t get in and get out in a matter of minutes. If you play the Ponzi game in stocks, you can limit your losses fairly easily if you are wary. If you play Ponzi in RE, you can’t.
“Not necessarily. This is where the “greater fool” hypothesis kicks in.
I know it’s completely irrational and going to collapse.
However, the market has a lot of momentum; there is still a lot of money to be made.”
skep-tic Says:
a lot of people had a hunch that things were wrong, but no comprehensive info existed
The money flowing into their pockets wasn’t a hunch. Everyone was too busy getting rich to pay attention to the layering (building) of risk factors until they were so far out on the plank that they were scared/embarassed to say they saw a shark in the water below. People don’t lose face until they absolutely have to.
it was not “inevitable” that there would be a collapse in the market for securitized shady mortgages.
True. Most investors (especially pension funds and foreigners) took the rating agencies’ credit ratings at face value. They didn’t understand the sludge that backed up these bonds.
(65#) lol. meant prospective…
:)
Prices have fallen. The reason you don’t see it is homeowner intertia or paralysis. They refuse to accept that their 600K home is now 550K and refuse to sell. Prices do not fall quickly because their are no sales recorded and RE is not marked to market. MY POS split is worth 50K less than 18 months ago, but a few people most people in my neighborhood let their house sit on the market at the higher price rather than sell. That is why the prices on MLS today are similar to last year.
What we need is for blood to be clearly flowing down the streets to kick start the owners to start taking cuts in prices.
#68 “it was not “inevitable” that there would be a collapse in the market for securitized shady mortgages.”
IMHO when you give mortgages to people who never should have been approved for them in the first place, than it is inevitable” that there would be a collapse in the market for securitized shady mortgages.”
#67
the fact that the money kept flowing into people’s pockets appears to have convinced many of them that the supposed problems were overblown.
It’s like a conversation I had with my aunt last year in which I said there’s no way people can actually afford these house prices. her response: “If no one can afford it, then how come so many people are buying?”
#71
As long as sellers have even a small hope of getting their price, they will hold out unless circumstances demand a quicker sale. Then they will sell for less, even if they believe it’s worth more. As time goes by, the various pressures at work will cause circumstances to change for more and more folks, and prices will come down substantially.
I know this from my own experience, having spent 2+ years to sell a house in the last downturn…
My realtor had convinced me it was worth way more than it was in order to get me to list my house with him, a technique known as “buying the listing”. The problem was that he did such a good job convincing me of its value, that I was unwilling to lower my price for 2 years.
In the end I lost $35k, and would have made a small profit or been even had I priced it right at the beginning.
I was young and naive.
#68 “it was not “inevitable” that there would be a collapse in the market for securitized shady mortgages.”
IMHO when you give mortgages to people who never should have been approved for them in the first place, than it is inevitable” that there would be a collapse in the market for securitized shady mortgages.”
I believe it was inevitable and have for quite some time. I’m saying I don’t think the market believed it was inevitable. Had it, today’s problems would have already been priced in. Rather, the market took the credit rating agencies’ AAA ratings at face value and didn’t question them. As a result, they happily gobbled up this debt for very little in the way of risk premiums.
About a week or so ago, Countrywide announced it would no longer offer 2/28 subprime mortgages. They immediately switch to a 3/27 loan. This week they did away with the 3/27 and went to a 5/25.
John[71],
I posted this in the past regarding slow movement in prices.
Unlike stock market bubbles, real estate bubbles [prices] don’t pop. Stocks are marked to the market, you don’t even have to wait for closing #’s, you can logon anytime during the day and get a market. With stocks, you see huge volume [capitulation] during a stock market collapse. Panic is appearing right before your eyes, real time.
In addition to this, some stock market crashes develop over time. The Nasdaq peaked in early 2000 and reached its ultimate low in late 2002.
Housing bubbles collapses are marked by large increases in inventory and a sudden disappearance of transactions Buyers seem to evaporate. The market turns on a dime, like Bob Toll said, “like someone turned off the switch”. The greed that was apparent in the psychology of buyers that developed at the top the housing bubble now dissipates. What happens on the way down is now houses hit the market and buyers are awol. Nobody cares about the open house down the street, ambivalence sets in. Fear begins to permeate thru the market. Bullish news [if there is any] is ignored, bearish news is magnified.
Now, buyers don’t have to buy and sellers wait to get “their” price. Sell [at their price] to whom? Transactions dry up, periods of time pass when there are just a sprinkling of transactions, in relative terms. It’s a major standoff. The game is played at midfield and neither side advances to any great degree. Now the greed cycle has switched to the buy side. Who wants to catch a falling knife? Why buy now, prices will be lower next year, etc..
That said, after a disastrous spring/summer, what’s next? Sellers can hold out until they can’t. At some point, sellers are confronted with standard life altering situations; job relocation, retirement, job loss, kids,
divorce, etc…, just normal market factors. This process develops over years, resulting in prices deflating slowly. Housing price value changes are not experienced by property owners until they try to turn the property into a liquid asset. If there is little activity, is the real value of a
particular property the 10% off 2005 highs, 6-8 months ago, or possibly 20% off 2005,
in today’s environment? We don’t know until the asset is monetized.
Consider this a play with different scenes. Each scene incorporates different plots. We have witnessed Scene 1, the switch is turned off,the makeup of the market implodes on the weak foundation of its own insanity. Scene # 2 the spigots are turning off, liquidity dries up. Scene # 3, large mortgage firms go under and major H-B’s are on the brink. There may be 4-5 more scenes left in this play. The outcome of each scene will be accompanied by another prick in the overinflated balloon and is unique in its time frame and price decline. The only question is how many more scenes are left and the duration of each. IMO, the final scene will probably be approx 10-20% of the total time of the play and account for approx 30-40% of the total price decline.
Patience is the key, who knows what year the greatest % of sellers capitulate. I think it will be very interesting in 2008. Lastly, when these cycles turn they go longer and further that anyone can imagine.
Unfortunately, mom, quarter on quarter, prices plod.
Duck (26)-
“What you see in the phots is how I live. I am poor. I live in NJ, so what do you expect? I wish it would jsut colapse already so that I can load up my car with suitcases of insurance money. Now, I am sick of talking about my stupid house.”
Does this mean you’re going away now?
Westwood:
Sold WESTEND AVE $556,000 4/16/2004
ACT WESTEND AVE $708,000 9/14/2006
PCH WESTEND AVE $699,000 10/15/2006
PCH WESTEND AVE $665,000 11/20/2006
PCH WESTEND AVE $650,000 1/13/2007
ACT WESTEND AVE $599,000 2/16/2007
PCH WESTEND AVE $579,000 3/15/2007
PCH WESTEND AVE $564,900 3/27/2007
PCH WESTEND AVE $549,900 4/10/2007
PCH WESTEND AVE $544,900 8/2/2007
Question. If a POS Cape is considered the lowest level home, how do other lower level home styles rank?
Bi-Level
Split-Level
Ranch
etc.
#80 Joe The POS Cape at least for my purposes is a catach all for all POS’s ranches, colonials, etc.
The POS tag is based on price, not ont eh style of the house. It is also based on work needed, cosmetic work, at teh right price, not POS.
Tons of work, at inflated price, = POS.
This is how I define, POS.
Seems like the psychology changed for this individual, right around here:
PCH WESTEND AVE $650,000 1/13/2007
ACT WESTEND AVE $599,000 2/16/2007
Joe R…
i have been tracking the market ever since 2003. like everyone else I wanted to own my own house – ‘the american dream’! i have noticed that pricewise, its as follows:
POS Cape
Ranch
Split Level
Bi Level
Colonial
of course, each of these have a subsection of remodelled and expanded respectively.
anyone have any other order?
A no basement ranch without a garage is my favorite shit box.
Correction on my #83…
the POS Cape should just say Cape….
like 3b says there are POS in each of these subsections also!
#75 rent Understood.
#84 John Me too. One just came on in my town, 2 beds 1 bath, no basement, asking price 434K, with property taxes of 8,500 a year.
Menawhile there ar POS Capes, etc, with 3 beds, 1.5 bath with asking prices 20K less, that havw been sitting all Spring/Summer.
the market is so bad. anyone here made money from here? you can short residential home futures, lenders, homebuilders, brokerages…
78#,col, did you short PPH? be careful of BSC, it is turnning up
bi (88)-
When that little number on the chart is in red, that means it’s going down.
today will be another goldilock day! dow will be close postive (or significantly from intraday low). bond up 13/32. oil down 1.5%. what else can you expect?
#71-That is why the prices on MLS today are similar to last year.
What we need is for blood to be clearly flowing down the streets to kick start the owners to start taking cuts in prices.
Agreed.
In some ways I don’t see reduction happining until the short sale alternative is embraced by home owners, realtors and lending institutions.
Sure risk taking home owners are impacted by the rising monthly costs and falling listing prices but it doesn’t seem that REO properties are showing up at discount pricing.
The most affordable local property I saw on a Wells Fargo REO website was still high at 199k. (IMO after a drive by) And this property sold on at 214k in 2005. (per Zillow)
I’m guessing the 199K is the outstanding amount + RE fees from that 2005 transaction.
“you can short residential home futures, lenders, homebuilders, brokerages…”
bi,
I don’t even know where to start?
I just heard today that Barry Bonds might have taken steriods?
steroids
#90 bi; Say bye,bye, you are just being a s simpleton now,and God knows one simpleton is enough.
BC (94)-
Bi might want to think about injecting some of that stuff into his head.
Hey all-
What’s a POS cape?
And the house I wrote about in 91 was a no basement ranch missing a garage…
#96 living POS = Piece of _hit
Condo
Townhouse
POS Cape
Ranch
Split Level
Bi Level
Colonial
“Bi might want to think about injecting some of that stuff into his head.”
Clot,
At least pass it on to his/her/its margin clerk.
where do Tudors fall on these lists?
Jamey,
There is no “race to the bottom” among ellers. Lots of them have given up and withdrew their lisitings. I keep track of the MLS every other day and I am seeing listings withdrawn at an alarming rate.
Oh, and nobody is impersonating the Duck. Everything you read I wrote.
And as far as me being “poor,” I am broke because I sold my apartment in Manhattan way to early. Had I sold it today instead of 2003, I could have gotten about an extra $300,000.
i don’t understand you guys keep complaining POS too high in BC. most of you guys are making 200k+ and can easily afford a very decent home in central jersey.
Condo
Townhouse
POS Cape
Ranch
Split Level
Bi Level
Colonial
Victorian
Tudor
McMansion
Estate
What’s a POS cape?
Around here, a POS cape generally refers to a lower-end, starter type home, in poor condition with an exorbitant asking price.
“most of you guys are making 200k+”
Apparently, I do not fall within “most.” This site is full of broke losers. The buyers with the $$$ are all posting on kannekt. We are poor. This blog probabaly qualifies for Section 8 and food stamps!
Bear Stearns CFO “Worst credit environment in 20 years”
“bloggers knew by 2005, when the proliferation of bubble blogs began, and insiders knew when they sold out at the peak. Thoughts?”
HA! That is the funniest thing I heard all day. It is common knowledge that most bloggers out there live in their parent’s basement. How do you think they find the time to blog all day?
Duck Says: How do you think they find the time to blog all day?
You’re on here and Kannekt alot!!!!!
Yikes. That Bloomberg article does not sound too good. I guess I should get insurance from multiple carriers!
Duck, some of us bloggers own houses…
Oh, and ‘makemoney’ will be more than happy flaunting his “wealth”
Oh and I fixed your list:
Condo
Townhouse
McMansion
POS Cape
Ranch
Split Level
Bi Level
Colonial
Tudor
Victorian
Estate
“Oh and I fixed your list:”
Jealous that you can’t afford a McMansion?? Keep renting that room in the basement for $100 a month and you will be able to afford one sooner or later!
Here is how Wells sells REOs. They first determine the full market price of house if it was perfect then back out repairs to make it perfect and that is starting price. Broker is required to have two open houses a month and MLS it as well as advertise in Local Paper, every four weeks Wells Fargo evaluates the price and adjusts it lower until sold. For the broker it is a good deal, he has to work his tail on advertising but he is working with a rational bank who will re-price down. A homeowner, picks a price sometimes irrationally, and then just sticks to it and the listing expires and the realtor is out a few hundred in advertising.
Duck, you said:
Oh, and nobody is impersonating the Duck. Everything you read I wrote.
Then you missed your calling. You should write for “The Onion.”
I think this sounds like someone else’s sense of humor:
Apparently, I do not fall within “most.” This site is full of broke losers. The buyers with the $$$ are all posting on kannekt. We are poor. This blog probabaly qualifies for Section 8 and food stamps!
McMansions are poorly constructed as they were quickly assembled out of Home Depot parts to turn a quick buck. No quality workmanship nor pride in build or originality in design. Most of these “Builders” were teachers who quit their day jobs.
Enjoy the pressboard cabinets, cheap tile, cheap fixtures, etc..but hey, they have a huge window showcasing the home depot chandelier and “granite” countertops (although any geologist will argue that the counters are actually granite).
#114
No, I wrote that. ALL OF IT.
10 year yield down under 4.7% and i got to go. have a nice weekend!
I own a house, got out of mommy’s basement in December 2006 :)
hmmmm ….
Who else posts here and on kannekt?
hmmmm ….
But you’ll miss the Dow rally…
“Most of these “Builders” were teachers who quit their day jobs.”
Actually, McMansion builders are illegal immigrants from Mexico. Lately, I have been seeing construction slowing down. I guess the INS is raiding McMansion construction sites. Don’t worry, they will all be back ina week to resume construction so that the builder can sell the house for $2 million.
And McMansions (new ones) come with a 10 year warranty. What type of warranty did your POS cape come with?
I got out of a house , went to a basement. Now having my bunker constructed.
“Bond market turmoil sending investors fleeing from risk may be a worse predicament than the 1980s stock market fall and Internet bubble burst, Bear Stearns Chief Financial Officer Sam Molinaro said on Friday.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN0336384220070803?rpc=44
Dow now down 122
Sure bi…another Goldilocks day
Duck (121)-
Will you be able to enforce your warranty when your house slides into the Hudson?
RentingInNJ
Sure bi…another Goldilocks day
Which is probably why he posted “…and i got to go. have a nice weekend!”
“And McMansions (new ones) come with a 10 year warranty. What type of warranty did your POS cape come with?”
But that is okay, 10 years and they will fall apart anyway.
I don’t have a cape…it is a home built in 1925 with lots of original character. My roof base is composed of tongue and groove joints for instance – and still in perfect condition. You won’t find that on newer homes. It is true that they don’t build them like they used to. In addition, my first floor stays at around 75 degrees in the summer. Love it!
Apparently someone here must hqave created the phrase “POS cape” because I googled it and this site is at the top of the search results. However, there are a bunch of vieos on YouTube titled “Teardown McMansions.” They were filmed by people who are jealous that they can’t afford one. In one of the vidoes, the guy who was holding the camcorder pulled up to his own house and it is a POS ranch. There is no way he can afford a McMansion.
Duck Says:
August 3rd, 2007 at 2:32 pm
“most of you guys are making 200k+”
Apparently, I do not fall within “most.” This site is full of broke losers. The buyers with the $$$ are all posting on kannekt. We are poor. This blog probabaly qualifies for Section 8 and food stamps!
I am with D$ck on this one – where do I sign-up for food stamps and section8 assistance – what are the qualification anyways??? – seems like a very closelly guarded secret… –
“Will you be able to enforce your warranty when your house slides into the Hudson?”
My house is 12 years old so there is no warranty. I wish the house would slide into the Hudson because then it would mean it was waterfront property and I could sell the lot to a condo developer for $2 million!
TBW,
“In addition, my first floor stays at around 75 degrees in the summer.”
Even on days like this? I have a 1929 Tudor, great bones and character but it gets freaking hot w/o AC.
I wish the house would slide into the Hudson because then it would mean it was waterfront property
Wow your own personal duck pond.
If you do not have AC, I have a house for sale with 21st centry technology, like AC. It also has central vaccum, but that is probabaly too complicated for someone who lives in a depression erra house so I will disconnect it and take the system with me to my new house!
“Wow your own personal duck pond.”
If you want a house that has its own pond, you can buy the Frick estate. It has a swan pond. The swan got killed by a fox, but Mr. Kurtz has promised that he will acquire a new swan before he sells the house!
Dear readers
I want to buy a big home on the gold coast, but my entire savings consists of food stamp vouchers. What’s a young buyer to do?
Granite Nut
#132/133 Duck: hey maybe the Fox that killed the Swan, can huff and puff, and blow your house down….., and into the Hudson.
Duck, take my advice and buy a lotto ticket for tonight’s drawing. For only a buck you can take your mind off selling your house for a few hours while you dream about buying Lil Kim’s or P.Diddy’s house or whatever.
3b,
That is the wolf who blows down houses. Learn your fairy tales.
Here is another fairy tale for you: Prices will decline 30%!
In NJ, the wolf does not need to blow down houses to get the pigs out of the house. All he has to do is go to court and exercise eminent domain!
duck: you’re right I have no idea what a central vacuum is.
It also has central vaccum, but that is probabaly too complicated for someone who lives in a depression erra house so I will disconnect it and take the system with me to my new house!
#138 ADA
http://www.beamvac.com/usa/
#137 Ducky/Grasshopper: Here is anoher fact for you, prices will be going down 30%, that is a given.
It is apparent that you have never lived through a down real esate market, or any amrket for that matter.
I have seen the picture of your house, what can I say, but how could anybody listen to you after you purchased that ummm gem, and in Cliffside no less.
#137 Ducky Wolf/Fox close enough
ADA: yes, even on days like today…on the 2nd and 3rd (attic) floors it is extremely hot, but the 1st floor and the basement for some reason stays very cool.
That must be some strong vacuum, it sucked all your furniture into it!
“Which is probably why he posted “…and i got to go. have a nice weekend!”
Rich NNJ,
It does s#ck getting a call from your margin clerk on Friday afternoon. That’s OK, he need not be present. They’ll blow his #ss out of the water.
My house will sell for top dolar because it has central vac!
“A central vacuum system can be a valuable addition to a home. A home equipped with such a feature often is easier to sell than comparable homes without them,” adds Walter Molony of the National Association of Realtors.
According to the Iowa Real Property Appraisal Manual, published by the state’s Department of Revenue to guide appraisers in calculating property value, a home with a central vacuum system is worth $1,100 to $1,300 more than an otherwise identical home. The Internal Revenue Service also includes central vacuum systems among improvements that can be added to the basis value of the home.
Scott Wells, executive director of floor care for the Vacuum Dealers Trade Association, VDTA, says that the Iowa manual may represent the low end of the impact of a central vacuum system on home values. Depending upon the age of the system, size of the home and the region where the home is located, a central vacuum may increase the value of a home by as much as two or three times the cost the system.
http://www.beamvac.com/usa/
Duck
If your house didnt have central vac, do you think you could sell it for even 838,000 (your current “bare minimum minus $2,000)
That must be some strong vacuum, it sucked all your furniture into it!
LOL…too bad it didn’t get that red leather couch or the plastic tablecloth on the dining room table!
By the way, there is a house priced $60k under yours with a really nice pool.
Duck,
I will be installing a central vacuum immediately.
btw I havent seen pictures of your house but it seems everyone else has. Care to share?
Yen, yen, go away
Little Hedgie wants to play
Yen, yen, go away
Here’s my idea of a hedge:
Bet the Spurs to lose on the money line next year in every game of theirs ref’d by Joey Crawford.
Bond turmoil worse than Internet bubble: Bear CFO
Friday August 3, 2:50 pm ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Bond market turmoil sending investors fleeing from risk may be a worse predicament than the 1980s stock market fall and Internet bubble burst, Bear Stearns Chief Financial Officer Sam Molinaro said on Friday.
“These times are pretty significant in the fixed income market,” Molinaro said on a conference call with analysts. “It’s as been as bad as I’ve seen it in 22 years. The fixed income market environment we’ve seen in the last eight weeks has been pretty extreme.”
“So, yes, we would make that comparison” to market events that also include the debt crisis of the late 1990s, he said.
ok…someone please email me duck’s listing…now i am dying to see this house!
From MarketWatch:
Will government bail out mortgage market?
Congress, Fannie and Freddie might provide only limited help
The crisis in the mortgage market has increased the likelihood that the Federal government could intervene in some way to alleviate a credit squeeze.
…
A broker at Ace Mortgage Funding LLC, a leading mortgage brokerage firm, estimated on Friday that 90% of these so-called non-conforming home loans have disappeared in the past three days, leaving home buyers with far fewer options. The broker declined to be identified because they didn’t want to be seen as exacerbating housing market problems.
The crisis in mortgage availability could prompt action from Congress, several mortgage market experts said.
…
Fannie and Freddie have a Federal charter that requires them to provide liquidity and stability to the mortgage market. However, those organizations made it clear on Friday that any help will be limited.
…
However, another person close to Freddie Mac who didn’t want to be identified stressed that Fannie and Freddie aren’t just going to buy up non-conforming loans to bail out troubled players in the secondary market.
Much more at the link above, Rich
I noticed a $80 ‘State of NJ HR Rebate’ credited to my account for being a poor renter. Renting has its upsides to….
Renting has its upsides too….
#154 A poor cooties infested renter. I am going to go home tonight and mow my lawn, no bi g deal and I like doing it, since I ownedd prior to renting.
I will look over at my neighbors who purchased 2 years ago,(I/O) (they own, no cooties), and see a lawn that has not been mowed in weeks, weeds, hoses thrown around,and junk and crap all over their back deck, and in their over grown grass less back yard.
Yep its us cooties infested renters bringing down property values.
BC Bob,
Woof! Dow down ~285 due to credit markets!
Seems to have happened after Bear Stearns CFO came clean on state of the credit market.
bi Says:
August 3rd, 2007 at 2:10 pm
today will be another goldilock day! dow will be close postive (or significantly from intraday low). bond up 13/32. oil down 1.5%. what else can you expect?
Try again. Dow closes down 285 points
Thanks Bi. Another classic to add to Bi’s greatest hits.
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–The market is overreacting to the problems in the housing market, Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV) Chief Executive Ara Hovnanian said Friday in a CNBC interview.
“It’s a psychological problem more than anything,” Hovnanian said. “We’ve been through these cycles many times before.”
While a rapid recovery is not expected in the future, the housing market should stabilize at a low level soon, he said. The healthy job market and favorable demographics should sustain the market, Hovnanian added.
“Stabilization doesn’t mean recovery,” he said.
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–The market is overreacting to the problems in the housing market, Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV) Chief Executive Ara Hovnanian said Friday in a CNBC interview.
“It’s a psychological problem more than anything,” Hovnanian said. “We’ve been through these cycles many times before.”
While a rapid recovery is not expected in the future, the housing market should stabilize at a low level soon, he said. The healthy job market and favorable demographics should sustain the market, Hovnanian added.
“Stabilization doesn’t mean recovery,” he said.
Hey Mr. Buffett, where are you? I thought you were interested in HOV, and went long. Now my pants are wet…help.
I wish ol’ sage Ara just would jump into the Navesink……idiota!
Florida home prices sinking, median now $13K beneath year-ago level!
Florida’s median sales price for existing single-family homes in June was $243,200; a year ago, it was $256,200 for a 5 percent decrease.
Florida’s median home sales slow
Gulf Breeze News
US Housing Is Among `Biggest Bubbles,’ Rogers Says (Update3)
Bloomberg
“So this bubble is the worst we’ve had in housing and it’s going to be the worst before its over cleaning it out.” China is a market that Rogers isn’t …
New Crunch Looms Over Adjustable Mortgages
HispanicBusiness.com, CA
There has never been a real estate bubble like the one of the last decade. So it’s impossible to know what the bust will bring, especially when there are …
The Toxic Mortgage Waste Crisis
CounterPunch, CA
The risks to our communities from the bubble in housing markets led to a particularly American form of madness: the assertion by economists and national …
Bad mortgage Loans Geared Towards Blacks?
Falling housing market topic hits
Comedy Central’s Daily Show
The Daily Show’s Jon Stewart on Subprime Lending
The market sold off because people do not want to carry anything extra into the weekend. It’s two days and Asia and Europe has a head start on Monday…..
this could be NASTEEEE
If your roof base is composed of tongue was your house built by a Kosher Deli?
Given the numbers that just came out, how can Hovnanian say with a straight face that the job market is “healthy”?
#160 Healthy Job market does not mean any thing if prices are still too high, simple as that, any moron should be able to understand it, even Mr. Hovnanian.
We haven’t even had a 10% correction and already people are getting nutty. I know market is down 2-3% but its been up past couple days. This is “mere volatility.” Calm down folks! I’m not saying “buy” or “sell” but this honestly isnt worth throwing a fit over…
BOOYAAAAA Where are you? And bi? bi?, bi?
“It’s a psychological problem more than anything,” Hovnanian said. “We’ve been through these cycles many times before.”
“Those people who think they’re getting foreclosed?” he continued, “they’re having hallucinations – it never happened; these people are crazy!”
bi bi bi bought bought bought and now he’s effed effed effed.
Is this supposed to be the Duck’s house? … red leather couch, plastic tablecloth?
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2719972&id=999999
#168 Well its certianly should not be ignored. If it was the reverse we would be told all is well. When its down, its just volatility?
Its more than volatility, it is the unraveling of the credit markets, and the drying up of liquidity, which will bring down the housing market, and eventually the economy, which will lead to a recession. IMHO.
#168 Pooch
Market’s down 9.4% in the past two weeks.
#172
That’s it.
Now, don’t ever do that again. I’ll be having nightmares for weeks.
#170 NJ:“Those people who think they’re getting foreclosed?” he continued, “they’re having hallucinations – it never happened; these people are crazy!”
What is he talking about there?
#175
I promise I won’t :)
#175 Another “proud owner” who does not take care of his lawn; not that theres that much to take care of.
“The first purchase by the Chinese government’s new overseas investment fund, a $3 billion stake in the Blackstone Group, has backfired badly and produced an unusual public backlash within China.”
“Blackstone shares have fallen steeply since the company went public June 22, pushing down the value of the government’s investment by more than $500 million in just six weeks. Bloggers and even some Chinese financial media have frequently mentioned the dwindling value of the government’s stake, and some have been highly critical.”
“O senior officials of the Chinese government, please do not be fooled by sweet-talking wolves dressed in human skin,” said one of several Internet postings compiled by an anonymous blogger on Sina.com, a Chinese Web site. “The foreign reserves are the product of the sweat and blood of the people of China, please invest them with more care!”
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/08/02/opinion/backlash.php
#178
No. There isn’t much. It’s 0.11 acres. Sad.
bi Says:
August 3rd, 2007 at 2:10 pm
today will be another goldilock day! dow will be close postive (or significantly from intraday low). bond up 13/32. oil down 1.5%. what else can you expect?
Just classic.
#176
I made up the second part of the Hov quote. was imagining where the fool was going with the “psychological” point.
#82 Gotcha
“What’s going to happen with the housing market with jumbo interest rates skyrocketing. CNBC (only marginally tolerable on down days) reported that all the big mortgage lenders are hiking jumbo loan rates – can anyone afford a McMansion at these rates?”
* Wells Fargo: 8%
* Countrywide: 7.39%
* Bank of America: 7.94%
* BB&T: 6.88%
“Wells Fargo hiked their jumbo rate from under seven percent last week to an even eight percent today. They say that lenders are ‘starting to price for the risk that is inherent in home loans, unlike what we saw in the last couple of years.'”
“What was that they used to say about the housing market being just fine as long as interest rates don’t go up to eight percent?”
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2007/08/jumbo-problem.html
When the 1st major HB goes under, I’ll put on my boots. When the 2nd goes under, I’ll tie my laces.
Cramer goes crazy:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=452808336
just another test
Jay,
This is exactly why you should be very careful with bubble blogs. They lie! The rates you posted are inflated. Let us look at the REAL rates from the websites of these lenders:
Wells Fargo:
Jumbo – loan amount greater than $417,000; $625,500 in AK and HI.
40/30 Fixed-Rate Balloon 7.125% 7.268%
30-Year Fixed 7.000% 7.156%
15-Year Fixed 6.500% 6.749%
5-Year ARM 6.500% 7.247%
3-Year ARM 7.000% 7.524%
https://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates/
Where is the rate 8%? I do not see 8%.
From yesterday’s NJMLS “Hotsheet”:
Cliffside Park
SLD EDGEWATER RD $610,000 9/20/2005
SLD EDGEWATER RD $529,000 8/2/2007
Closter
SLD HOMANS AVE $1,500,000 3/22/2006
SLD HOMANS AVE $1,535,000 8/1/2007
(2.3% / not even in line with inflation let alone commission and closing costs)
Old Tappan
ACT ORANGEBURGH RD $659,000 8/18/2006
SLD ORANGEBURGH RD $545,000 8/2/2007
Ridgewood
SLD S PLEASANT AVE $425,000 8/15/2002
SLD S PLEASANT AVE $495,000 8/1/2007
(3.1%/year)
ACT WALL ST $639,000 3/13/2007
SLD WALL ST $591,000 8/2/2007
ACT LOTTE RD $1,795,000 2/23/2007
SLD LOTTE RD $1,550,000 8/1/2007
#174. …september is coming…..
sl
Donald,
The Well Fargo 8% for Jumbo loans was reported on CNBC earlier today.
Rich
cramer video is a laugh riot.
“I will look over at my neighbors who purchased 2 years ago,(I/O) (they own, no cooties), and see a lawn that has not been mowed in weeks, weeds, hoses thrown around,and junk and crap all over their back deck, and in their over grown grass less back yard.”
Unless the homeowners are selling, there is no incentive for them to maintian their proiperty (unless they get busted by the code enforcer, like I did!)
Cramer…you have to take your medicine at some point.
I saw that 8% Wells Fargo rate quoted in an article not a blog.
Donald,
The 8% rate for a Jumbo loan from Well Fargo was reported on CNBC earlier today.
“I saw that 8% Wells Fargo rate quoted in an article not a blog.”
And I saw that 7.1% Wells Fargo rate quoted on their website, not an article. Who should we believe, an article or the company’s own website?
According to CNBC reports, the higher rates are being charged through brokers, Wells fargo reserves lower rates if you go direct through them.
Why are you so wound up Robert?
“According to CNBC reports, the higher rates are being charged through brokers, Wells fargo reserves lower rates if you go direct through them.”
Well then anyone who goes through a broker is a retard who is flushing money down the toilet.
I saw Wells rate and others for Jumbos on CNBC earlier today.
Doanld,
Rates fluctuate through out the day. The 10-year went down so…
Maybe you should do a little more reading?
And the award for “World’s Ugliest House” goes to:
http://njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2729792&id=999999
I don’t understand why these renters aren’t buying houses. Over 6 months on the market and NO QUALIFIED BUYERS!! Buying a house is the key to building wealth long term. We bought our house in the early 1970s, and look what it is worth now. When we first bought we thought that $60,000 was a lot of money, but we struggled and now have a house well in to the 500,000s which seems alot now but work hard and struggle and eventually your asset will pay off.
Don’t believe the media hype bashing housing. Housing is a good secure investment. Anyone who is successful owns a house.
Does anyone think Bernanke is going to cut the Fed rate? You do realize if he does you can start using dollar bills as fire starter.
I agree with you, but you’ll no doubt be assailed by some here by suggesting what is normal American activity. What we have here are a few people who want to undermine this economy. It even spiiled over into the stock market today.
Renters need a house and have to buy at some point. I advise anyone selling to hold the line and not accept lowball offers or any of the other dirty underhanded stunts that are being tried nowadays.
Hou53 Says:
August 3rd, 2007 at 5:38 pm
I don’t understand why these renters aren’t buying houses. Over 6 months on the market and NO QUALIFIED BUYERS!! Buying a house is the key to building wealth long term. We bought our house in the early 1970s, and look what it is worth now. When we first bought we thought that $60,000 was a lot of money, but we struggled and now have a house well in to the 500,000s which seems alot now but work hard and struggle and eventually your asset will pay off.
reinvestor101,
No, what happened today was the effect of quite a few people not being able to pay their loans because they listened to people like YOU who said housing would continue to climb.
Buying a home isn’t the key to long term wealth.
It CAN be a good investment and it will be again. But right now (and for the past 2 years), no.
Rich
202 –
when you bought your house in the 70’s was it during an unprecedented housing boom cycle where house prices rose at an unrealistic rate for over 5 yrs?
I’ll buy when 1) prices are realistic, 2) I can safely afford to and 3) when I can look back 30 years later and say “wow” did my house go up in value rather than – “Oh, $#*t I’m upside down and can’t get right-side up!
Theres a difference between struggling and winning and struggling and losing it all (like a lot of folks are doing right now in their attempt to live the American dream.)
sl
“Don’t believe the media hype bashing housing. Housing is a good secure investment. Anyone who is successful owns a house.”
[202],
Don’t have to listen to the hype. You’re right, housing WAS a good secure investment. It will remain so for those that bought pre 2001 and didn’t suck out every last dime or refinance with an arm.
Unfortunately, it turned into a pig fest. When the industry offers free $, all the pigs get dirty. Never have known a pig who didn’t like to play in s*it.
I’m with you up until 2004/05. Owned for 20 years and ran for the hills in 9/05. The forecast for this weekend is hot and dry. The excess liquidity is evaporating. The drought is coming.
rei101 [204],
The market will dance to its own tune. What is wrong with being short some sectors? Either be with it, step aside or get crushed. Renters do not have to do squat. Sellers are stuck. Wait for the resets this fall/winter. The slope is getting steeper.
I’m sure sellers will take your advice. Maybe you can also help to bail them out. Bear’s advice was also to sit tight. BAM.
#204, hear, hear!
sl
Reinvestor (203):
I am in the middle of negotiations–we had even agreed to a price, but there remain issues that might kill this.
I suspect you’re being sarcastic, but if negotiating a price is considered a “dirty underhanded stunt”, well, you just do not grasp what is happening.
#2000 We do not want to pay fro 500’s for your crappy 1970’s house?
#203 Low balls are justt part of doing business, nothing more.
Just like when you guys were getiing your 20% appreciation a year, year after year.. Why is it diffferent when the shoe is on the other foot now. What a bunch of cry babies
We will not over pay or finance your retirement. Get used to it,qualified buyers will control this market, simple as that. You had your day, should have sold 2 years ago.
Robert, #199
$3,000,000 teardown?
#201 How come it was nto hyo when the media was pumping up houisng? Were they not just reporting what was going on? Like I said, a bunch of cry babies.
#191 Robert Unless the homeowners are selling, there is no incentive for them to maintian their proiperty (unless they get busted by the code enforcer, like I did!)
What happened to pride of ownership, and sense of palace that can only come from owning?
So home ownership equals dirt bag?
Duck,
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2719972&id=999999
Which wall did you say was falling off?
Holy smokes, somebody’s asking 899K for the hunk of sh*t? If I was gonna drop that kind of money, it certainly wouldn’t be in Cliffside Park. That place was a dump in the 80’s, the schools are horrible and North Hudson Park is a sh*t hole.
Does anyone know if there is a difference in home/condo listed in NJ with an MLS beginning with a “5” as opposed to a “4”. I know of a few properties that are bank owned that begin with a “5” but it doesn’t match up all the time, thanks!
“This is a liquidity crunch the likes I have never seen.”
http://data.nationalmortgagenews.com/columns/hearing/
Stocks Fall Sharply Amid Credit Fears
The stock market tumbled today on fears that the problems in the mortgage and debt markets will take a significant toll on consumers, businesses and the overall economy.
“I have been at this for 22 years, and this is about as bad as I have seen it in the fixed-income market,” said Samuel L. Molinaro Jr., the chief financial officer.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/03/business/03cnd-stox.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Looking in NY, #217, that article is one nightmare after another for Realtor Ticks, greedy sellers, and flippers.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/03/business/03cnd-stox.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
#186,
Priceless, Cramer is just plain nuts. If Fed cuts rates, say good bye to the dollar, say good bye to the market, say good bye to the American economy and start learning Chinese.
Good luck trying to get a mortgage for that Mac Mansion in NJ, after this week. Oppps.
“#2000 We do not want to pay fro 500’s for your crappy 1970’s house?”
That is ok. If you don’t want to pay $500k for a POS 1970s house, don’t! Instead, you can go to Alpine and buy a POS 1970s “contemporary” for $3 million!
“Get used to it,qualified buyers will control this market, simple as that. You had your day, should have sold 2 years ago.”
How do buyers control the market? If they did, prices would be coming down in the double digits and the number of homes being sold would have significantly increased. Instead, we are seeing the number of homes being sold dropping substantially, inventory declining, and prices remaining flat. They go down a few points, but then come right back up. No matter how you look at the prices, they are flat!
“Priceless, Cramer is just plain nuts. If Fed cuts rates, say good bye to the dollar, say good bye to the market, say good bye to the American economy and start learning Chinese.”
Cutting rates is a GOOD thing. That will allow me to sell my house for top dollar. The only people who will get screwed are renters. If rates are going to be cut, then it looks like I was ahead of the curve when I made the decision to raise my price.
“What happened to pride of ownership, and sense of palace that can only come from owning?”
When home prices are not increasing, there is less of an incentive to maintain the property. When I pull my house off the market this month, I intentd to let the front lawn become an overgorwn forest until a week before I re-list the house next April.
“#201 How come it was nto hyo when the media was pumping up houisng? Were they not just reporting what was going on? Like I said, a bunch of cry babies.”
The media is not the problem. The problem is renters who think that prices are going to drop substantially in the future and spread their gloom and doom everywhere they go.
I actually found Cramer’s anxiety about the situation somewhat disturbing.
He claims inside info into the current situation that has freaked him out.
Jay # 186
saw the Cramer meltdown – this is pretty shameless self-interest on his part.
Sounds like he’s asking Big Daddy to bail out his frat boy friends after they’ve burned their own house to the ground. What a joke.
Am I supposed to feel sorry for the charlatans that torched the joint?
I say let them roast.
Jay 226
Cramer is attracting some serious scrutiny around the net on this one. He may have accidentally roasted himself this time.
ChiFi (164)-
Remember when nobody wanted to be short the weekend?
My, how things change.
3b (169)-
I think bi is still on the line with his margin clerk.
I’m guessing that the margin clerk doesn’t consider bi’s earlobes to be collateral.
Cramer is 100% right. Interest rates need to be lowered. Anyone who thinks they should remain the same is obviviously hoping for a depression and complete real estate market bubble burst to come in the future.
Jay:
how about Cramer’s statement about how Bear should have responded:
paraphrasing:
….they (Bear) should have done what Dick did in 1998, you pick up the phone to guys like me and say 32 bid 1 million, and you get whacked and you say 32 bid 2 million….
Anyone care to predict what next weeks headlines will look like?
I just watched the Cramer video…. is that entertainment or desperation? I don’t know, but I get the feeling that someone on the ‘other’ side of some trade is not sleeping well.
Lowering rates will add fuel to fire and pummel the dollar. If anything, they need to go up to get the excesses out of the system. Yes, there will be pain, but what do you expect after 5 years of a credit orgy.
prof,
I agree, they made there own bed, and should not be bailed out by the fed.
“Cutting rates is a GOOD thing.”
$1.99,
Won’t have any positive effect on RE. One of these days, you’ll realize that this delirium was started by the fed and finished by the market. The fed is now a spectator. This absurdity was fueled by excess market liquidity chasing returns. Now the market is drying up. How about the market doing the fed’s work, quasi tightening. No doubt, if it gets out of hand the fed will calm everybody with a rate desrease. Net effect? Zero for RE, gold zooms, dollar gets slammed, and the market has a major relief rally. They’ll crush the short sellers and take out all the stops. Then what? Vol is where it’s at, not an open house that is a non-event. [ALL DISCLAIMERS AT WORK]
Sometimes I wonder if this is the only action/response that you get regarding your flip that flopped. I picture Steve Martin [The Jerk];
Navin R. Johnson: The new phone book’s here! The new phone book’s here!
Harry Hartounian: Boy, I wish I could get that excited about nothing.
Navin R. Johnson: Nothing? Are you kidding? Page 73 – Johnson, Navin R.! I’m somebody now! Millions of people look at this book everyday! This is the kind of spontaneous publicity – your name in print – that makes people. I’m in print! Things are going to start happening to me now.
dream,
What post is the Cramer video?
BC Bob,
You are completely wrong. The market came to a stop in the summer of 2005 when the fed raised interest rates 8 times. Had this not ahppened, we would stil be seeing double digit appreciation rates. Remember, the market solowed down WELL BEFORE the subprime market collapse. Back then, many people, including myself, did not even know what a subprime loan was.
Right after 9/11, the fed lowered rates drastically and we had a huge boom.
You say the fed’s rates have nothing to do with the market, but they do. They lowered the rates: RE Boom! They raised the reates: RE slump.
If rates were to come down dramatically, this slump would be over by the end of the year.
“Sometimes I wonder if this is the only action/response that you get regarding your flip that flopped.”
FYI: My home was never intended as a flip. If i was flipping, I would have purchased a block of condos in Hoboken at pre-construction prices. If I was flipping, this is the last house I would have bought.
BCB,
http://www.cnbc.com/id/20111570
Two videos, the one at top is where he seems to get a little agitated, shall we say…
tick… tick… tick… tick…
BC Bob Says:
August 3rd, 2007 at 9:30 pm
dream,
What post is the Cramer video?
#186
re: #199
“1970’s contemporary colonial nestled on 2 private, wooded acres. 4 bedrooms, 3 full baths. the house needs work but the value is in the land and the location.”
Translation: The house needs to be torn down. Great lot for homebuilder!
“If rates were to come down dramatically, this slump would be over by the end of the year.”
Quack, dropping rates is not going to bring the buyers in. Who ever could buy has bought and there are barely any marginal buyers left at these price levels. In this whole subprime/alt-a meltdown the past 2 months, people seem to have forgotten that housing is still not affordable.
The risk premium has jumped appreciably so I don’t think reducing rates will have any positive effect whatsoever on housing. But it will stoke inflation. The phed is phucked. The market will need to work the excesses out on their own.
re: #214 rebear
You cannot see the wall in the pictures. Buyers do not even see the wall when they come since it is very inaccessible. Only I know about it.
UnRealtor Says:
August 3rd, 2007 at 7:54 pm
‘Looking in NY, #217, that article is one nightmare after another for Realtor Ticks, greedy sellers, and flippers.’
Yeah, you are so right! Unbelievable.
It’s steadily unravelling…
“Quack, dropping rates is not going to bring the buyers in. Who ever could buy has bought and there are barely any marginal buyers left at these price levels.”
There are TONS of buyers out there. They can’t buy until they sell their homes.
Today’s sellers are tomorrow’s buyers! (Copyright, 2007)
“In this whole subprime/alt-a meltdown the past 2 months, people seem to have forgotten that housing is still not affordable.”
YAWN! NYC was recently ranked as one of the top 5 most unaffordbale cities in the U.S. (3 of the cities were in California, no shocker there). The last time I checked, prices are still going up in NYC despite the fact that it is not “affordbale.” Come on, if a $1.3 million POS closet in Manhattan is “affordbale” ($1.3 milion is the median price), then how can a $500k POS cape in NJ not be “affordbale”?
A couple of questions, from a non-economics/finance person…
– How would the Fed lowering interest rates “make this problem go away”? If the Fed lowers rates half a percent, but your ARM reset increases your mortgage rate by 1.5%, aren’t you still screwed?
– Wouldn’t lowering rates just prolong the agony of a correction further down the road, instead of making the problem go away, as Cramer suggests it would?
“If rates were to come down dramatically, this slump would be over by the end of the year.”
$1.99,
Wrong again. However, I do agree that the beginning of the cycle was the work of the fed. When WS realized that it wasn’t stuffing their pockets with KA-Ching, then the game changed. Investors wanted in, the hedgies bought the crap, levered it up thru their clearing firm and the mud hole became an ocean. From approx 2004 until the lights started to flicker, the charade was hedgie driven, not 10 year. How else can you explain someone bypassing 5.25/5.50 fixed rates with teaser financing. A total sham.
Today, as the market internals continue to crumble, fixed rates are still at historic lows. Why is this market hitting more bottoms than the local maternity ward nurse? The only benefator’s of a rate cut will be prime buyers with a dp. Not enough to plug up all the holes in this dike. This is a once in a lifetime event. The unraveling will encompass years of a declining market. How do you spin a major mortgage lender, alt-a & prime, going under since they could not meet their margin calls? Do you honestly feel that a .25 cut would have made a difference? You have PT Bartum spinning in his grave.
This market is finished, the fat lady has sung. The only question is how many encores.
“Oh, and ‘makemoney’ will be more than happy flaunting his “wealth”
How much is make money worth?
“There are TONS of buyers out there. They can’t buy until they sell their homes.”
Does anybody else picture Moe, Larry & Curly? WOOPS.
Robert Says:
August 3rd, 2007 at 8:50 pm
Cramer is 100% right. Interest rates need to be lowered. Anyone who thinks they should remain the same is obviviously hoping for a depression and complete real estate market bubble burst to come in the future.
Robert: what? you want lower rates?
2Y 4.42%
10Y 4.68%
What else? The Fed. You have to be kidding. The Cramer thing is exactly as 227 profuscious describes.
dream/steve,
Thanks, regarding Cramer.
” Wouldn’t lowering rates just prolong the agony of a correction further down the road, instead of making the problem go away, as Cramer suggests it would?”
No it would not, because lowering rates would allow depserate homeowners to sell before they get foreclosed. Without all the dedbeat owners, the market will be much stronger. Even if the the “correction” was prolonged, the market would still be in better shape.
You guys. Didn’t any of you pass editing?
Version 5
Airlite (Whatever the h#ll that is)
Condo
Townhouse
McMansion
Bunk bed in back of a Freightliner
Katrina Cottage
Trailer
Doublewide
POS Cape
Modular
Ranch
Split Level
Bi Level
Colonial
Craftsman
Tudor
Victorian
Estate
Open air bure on Fiji
Robert at 254 said: “No it would not, because lowering rates would allow depserate homeowners to sell before they get foreclosed. Without all the dedbeat owners, the market will be much stronger. Even if the the “correction” was prolonged, the market would still be in better shape.”
But since when is it a guarantee that someone can sell and turn a profit? If they bet that their house would appreciate, and covered that bet with a mortgage, and their bet turned out to be wrong, why do they get a do-over? What is to say that the future buyer, who will pay more than the current seller did, will not get into trouble and require a rate cut? Why even have interest rates at all, if there is no risk involved (government will throw everyone a life ring)?
Regarding Cramer and his animal house budddies;
[Bernanke]
Dean Vernon Wormer: Zero point two… Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son. Mr. Hoover, president of Delta house? One point six; four C’s and an F. A fine example you set! Daniel Simpson Day… HAS no grade point average. All courses incomplete. Mr. Blu – MR. BLUTARSKY… ZERO POINT ZERO.
[Cramer],
Otter: But you can’t hold a whole fraternity responsible for the behavior of a few, sick twisted individuals. For if you do, then shouldn’t we blame the whole fraternity system? And if the whole fraternity system is guilty, then isn’t this an indictment of our educational institutions in general? I put it to you, Greg – isn’t this an indictment of our entire American society? Well, you can do whatever you want to us, but we’re not going to sit here and listen to you badmouth the United States of America. Gentlemen!
No it would not, because lowering rates would allow depserate homeowners to sell before they get foreclosed.
Sounds to me like you’re just thinking about yourself.
Kudlow:
did we give up the germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
choppy markets of late. probably sit on the sidelines and watch a while until things get settled. i usually buy into dips but this one might have more legs. greedy is ok but greedy and stupid are not.
Animal House reference, NICE!
Quack, you need to take your dose of Calmpose. The weekend is here, go and relax.
A 25 bp cut ain’t saving the sinking ship. All are on board, and nowhere to run. But the band plays on…
on the cramer-acting-out-of-self-interest tip: anyone want to bet that cramer & his buddies are short & want to induce panic among small/retail investors?!?
Cramer gets paid to be a shocker….he’s all about personality now. He couldn’t give a rat’s @ss about any of this. He makes more $ on the way down.
#259 What?? Please, please tell me you know that it was the Japanese and not the Germans who bombed Pearl Harbor.
Outofstater Says:
August 3rd, 2007 at 11:34 pm
#259 What?? Please, please tell me you know that it was the Japanese and not the Germans who bombed Pearl Harbor.
It’s a quote from the movie Animal House.
On his website, Richard Florida referenced this June 2007 Schiller paper that was a good bird’s eye view of events, with comparisons to regional housing booms in the 1880s and 1920s. He takes a behavioral economics approach, arguing that many booms see triggering event that changes the mood of the crowd (a war, recession, etc.). He suggests that the current boom’s trigger may be a little fuzzier. News about how bad the economic fundamentals may become conventional wisdom, triggering a collapse. So the belief in the neoclassical model, rather than some fixed notions of neoclassical itself, will trigger the fall.
Key Quote that shows some of the behavioral framework he is playing with:
We have seen during this boom a burgeoning of real estate investment. Residential investment as a share of GDP rose to 6.2% of GDP by early 2006, the highest level since 1950. Causal observation suggests that the uniqueness bias seems still to be at work. Most people do not seem to know that the supply of new homes is increasing so fast, and when I have talked to people at such times the instead seem to be focusing on stories of what will set their city apart. The phase of the sense of betrayal and embarrassment for participating in the boom does not seem to have set in, at least yet.
http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d16a/d1610.pdf
#265 Outofstater
re: germans and pearl harbor, kind of reminds of me of Cramer too,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K92OVFeGgIE
What we have here are a few people who want to undermine this economy.
Reinvestor,
As a flipper, you’re the one that has undermined the economy.
Selling houses back and forth to each other with money we borrowed from Communist China is not the underpinning of a strong economy.
The housing bubble has taken capital away from real economic progress and diverted it toward installing granite countertops and stainless steel refrigerators.
Being a true American does not mean buying your overpriced investment property.
Renting,
Like it or not, but flippers have helped the economy a lot. What were we supposed to spend our money for “real economic progress”? You sound like a Communist!
“Rich In NNJ Says:
August 3rd, 2007 at 6:06 pm
reinvestor101,
No, what happened today was the effect of quite a few people not being able to pay their loans because they listened to people like YOU who said housing would continue to climb.”
Rich,
Why do you even care about RE in NJ? Aren’t you moving to North Carolina or some other fly-over state where prices are much cheaper?
what a goldilock day for home buyers! dow down 281 points (180 pts after i left). 10 yr yield down to 4.68% (18 bpt to my year end target 4.5%). oil down $1.38, gold up $8 as expected.
HOME INVENTORY IS MOVING DOWN !!!
Here is the number of listings on realtor.com for a listed towns i tracked.
Date Total
7/17/2007 3,281
7/21/2007 3,256
7/24/2007 3,248
7/31/2007 3,183
8/3/2007 3,124
The towns are:
Summit
Short Hills
Westfield
Princeton
Montgomery
Plainsboro
West Windsor
Cranbury
East Brunswick
South Brunswick
Marlboro
Notes
1) The number in Princeton and Cranbury includes the houses in nearboring towns which use Princeton and Cranbury address.
2) Actual total number is fewer since there are multiple listings for the same property.
Cramer…you have to take your medicine at some point.
Cramer sounds like a drug addict begging for one more hit of low interest rates… we just need one more interest rate cut…one more injection of liquidity.
Okay, then what? The market gets a short term bump. Maybe a few more people can refinance their mortgages. But then what? What happens when the rate cut is priced in and we are right back to where we started? Do we cut again?
testing
Market slump? What market slump?
http://www.globest.com/news/963_963/newjersey/162840-1.html
Pay attention to the third paragraph
Robert – you are clueless – if I could short sell to you I would, with both hands, I would back the truck up and dump. This would be over far quicker if short selling were possible. You would choke on my load.
and how long until Countrywide gets slammed – there is a reason Mozillo has been selling for the last year, I doubt it is because he thinks CFC will go up. tis only a matter of time….. can’t wait to see how this one pans out
Market turmoil, A good time for a squeeze
Aug 2nd 2007
From The Economist print edition
The biggest risk to the global economy probably lies with debt-laden American consumers. They have been battered by falling house prices and expensive petrol, and their spending growth has already slowed sharply. A credit squeeze will aggravate the housing bust and falling house prices could drag spending down further. But the rest of the world is growing strongly and unemployment in America remains low, so a recession there is by no means inevitable. What’s more, if the economy were to head downhill fast, the Fed, despite its public worries about inflation, has plenty of scope for cutting interest rates.
Credit derivatives have probably improved the stability of the global economy by dispersing risk, but it is no longer clear where that risk is being held. And many of the new risk-dispersing instruments are so illiquid that trouble may not emerge for some time. It was several months after the subprime mortgage market turned sour before the scale of the losses at two Bear Stearns hedge funds became clear.
bruiser (256)-
For a non-economics guy, you’re coming up with some good stuff.
bi (272)-
Did you cover your margin call on Friday?
PS- Thanks for the tip on shorting Bear. Love those new downtick rules at the NYSE. Now you can hop right onto a falling stock and ride it into the ground.
Learn to love the .vix!
#223,
Unless the Fed lowers rates by 300bp, it will not make a difference. In fact it will cause a panic, because the Fed officials have been saying that the mortgage bubble is contained and they worry about inflation and then they come out and lower rates, it would mean something BIG has happened. I am selling my stocks that day.
Also you need to understand that Fed does not control the rates, this week the mortgage market died, anyone willing to write a mortgage can charge any rate they want, because there’s no secondary market.
Who are you going to sell the house to? as of Friday there are no 400k+ mortgages.
Does anyone agree that the housing bubble is many times the size of the .com bubble? I certainly think so.
You know what is interesting…….the refusal of CDO holders to mark their securities to market is a nice twisted parallel to sellers refusing to drop their asking prices.
?!?!?!
Bear Stearns Cos., a Wall Street trading titan that recently suffered the collapse of two mortgage-bond funds, took extraordinary measures to bolster its financial position amid investor fears that knocked down its shares and fed a broad stock-market swoon.
The big securities firm also plans to oust Warren Spector, Bear’s powerful chief of stock and bond trading and one of the firm’s two presidents, according to a person familiar with the matter. Mr. Spector, 49 years old, had been widely viewed as a leading candidate to become the firm’s next chief executive. Bear’s board is set to meet Monday to discuss Mr. Spector’s departure, the person said.
Layoff’s are forthcoming………I guarantee it!!! ??????????
Yes, it is. Disbelief. Arrogance.
Next comes anger? As in a bunch of Cramer out-bursts.
http://changingminds.org/disciplines/change_management/kubler_ross/kubler_ross.htm
Who’s gonna be begging?
That was at CF 3 comments ago. I can’t see the numbers.
Somebody was playing Dora Lost City on my notebook and it’s all trashed.
“Does anyone agree that the housing bubble is many times the size of the .com bubble? I certainly think so.”
Frank,
The dot bomb will prove to be a walk in the park comapred to this bust.
Chi,
You’re right. Big time layoffs coming. The Gold Coast or the Mold Coast?
NYT.com front page (left column) has a great graphic explaining dynamics of the coming mortgage market crash…
three examples of the Jersey shore market in Monmouth County.
1. my next-door neighbor’s house. 2 family, with tenant reporting mold issues in the apartment, and owner’s unit that hasn’t been updated in at least 20 years. Price: 530K, on market over a year with no reduction.
2. house around the corner, set up as one-family with mother-in-law unit. Needs a TON of work. Originally listed in June at 470K, lowered after a week to 450K, now 415K.
3. fully occupied 2 family (which I haven’t seen). Price 375K. Tenants each pay 1K rent per month. (Do the math: you’ll get a better return with no headaches in CDs.)
And it’s August…the buying season for these houses is over.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/04/business/04stox.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
In a telephone interview from Washington, he[Richard F. Syron, chief executive of Freddie Mac] was wary of the calls by some mortgage industry officials that Freddie Mac and its cousin, Fannie Mae, step in to buy loans and securities that private investors will no longer purchase.
chifi/Bob,
Do you mean Bear Sterns or will it be across the board?
292 – with respect to layoffs.
any predictions on where the avg 30 year fixed will be by years end?
my $1.99 guess – 12%
gather those rosebuds
The July warning notices were way up for
2007 vs 2006. I hope this isn’t a trend!
http://www.state.nj.us/labor/warn/2007/07-07warn.htm
http://www.state.nj.us/labor/warn/2006/07-06WARN.htm
The Post-Bear Bust Environment
A. Gary Shilling, Insight 08.02.07, 6:00 PM ET
http://www.forbes.com/home/personalfinance/2007/08/02/countrywide-gm-bear-pf-guru-in_gs_0802soapbox_inl.html
REBear Says:
August 4th, 2007 at 9:12 am
chifi/Bob,
Do you mean Bear Sterns or will it be across the board?
RE: I don’t know, but you have to believe Bear is the first hammer to drop. I don’t know anything, it is just obvious. You don’t just kill THE MAN without taking down his army.
Prof, I’m sticking with my predictions when we did that last Fall. I know I said 7% for this year, but I’ve been trying to find it and I can’t.
time to retrace those predictions!
Notes from Jersey City, NJ:
A former factory parking lot a block away from me was converted to 4 new 2 family homes. Asking prices were over $650k. Only one has sold. They have been under construction for the past 18 months. Lots of ‘Forsale” signs, including an empty lot (was a house that was torn down by a developer.. the development never happened”. I expect that prices will really take a dive around 2009. My only worry is that credit will be so tight it will be impossible to find any financing. I had this situation back in the later 90’s. My family bought property for cash, renovated it, had a terrific rent roll, but couldn’t find a bank willing (or able) to hold paper. Banks had largely become glorified check cashing outlets. They no longer did any portfolio lending. Instead, they packaged loans and sold them through Fannie & Freddie. Since the company was under an LLC buying residential property, getting a Fannie or Freddie backed loan was impossible.
re: mortgage rates
I smell desperation from Wells to cover the bad paper
if their latest bump is any sign, I think the rates are going to creep and then run for high ground.
rebear,
Across the board, IMO. Major profit centers are getting hit all over; derivatives, lbo’s, mbs. WS moves fast.
OT:
In one week:
$2,600 for water well inspection
$1,450 for new water softening system
$285 for well pump maintenance
$500 for new AC motor
Aahhhhh…..the surprises of homeownership :(
Bye bye Hawaii..
That Shilling article is excellent.
I foresee a 25% peak-to-trough decline in median single-family house prices nationwide.
post 299
Hell_Is_Like_Newark Says: Now, that is a great name!
“gold up $8 as expected.”
bi [273],
As expected? My 8ss. You would know the difference between contract specifications of a gold contract and book value of a H-B. By the way, if you owned the yellow metal, your margin clerk would have already liquidated to pay for your other follies.
Just curious. Why did you expect gold to be up?
That’s would not know.
From Reuters:
Subprime lender First NLC lays off 645 employees
First NLC Financial Services LLC, a subprime mortgage lender being sold by Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group Inc (FBR.N: Quote, Profile, Research), said on Friday it has laid off nearly half of its 1,350 employees as it combats a slumping housing market.
Employees learned of the layoffs on Wednesday, according to Andrew Henschel, First NLC’s vice president of corporate governance. About 645 employees are being let go, including more than one-third of those at its Boca Raton, Florida headquarters.
“We have had to reduce staff to compete more effectively,” Henschel said in an interview. “Market conditions and the subprime landscape have changed dramatically. We were saddened to let valued employees go, but the landscape has changed.”
Bi # 172
The decrease in inventory you state is expireds. Those were your Superbowl listings.
Duck,
I don’t think you are for real. At first I was wondering what your agent thought when you asked for the price increase, then I realized you are the agent, you are here making fun of your client… it is brilliant – making him look like the nut he is, it is so very John Mackey of Whole foods.
KL
From the Herald News:
Levies reflect property revaluations
Residents marched to the mayor’s office and jammed City Hall phone lines Friday to protest property tax increases levied by the first citywide property revaluation in decades.
Throughout the day, dozens of homeowners wielding the yellow bills descended on the Tax Assessor’s Office to inquire if they really must now pay the amount stated in the bills mailed out earlier this week.
Of a dozen people interviewed at City Hall on Friday, only one saw a tax bill decrease.
Sandra Santiago saw her bill jump from $572 to $1,995. For Victor Ellis, the taxes on his first home increased from $2,300 to more than $5,300, according to the letter he received. Clara Baker’s quarterly tax bill went from about $560 to $1,529.
“How am I going to eat,” asked Clara Baker, 66, her lower lip quivering as she leaned on a cane. “I can hardly live as is.”
Residents had paid more modest amounts for decades — a reason several people cited for remaining in Paterson.
Homeowners can appeal the new assessment of their property in February. But they must pay the new rate for the August and November quarters.
Even if they do navigate the cumbersome appeals process, residents still must pay the new rate for the rest of 2008. They will receive a rebate check at the end of the year, officials said.
“This is ridiculous,” said Santiago, 52, who must pay her $1,995 quarterly bill on a $508 monthly disability check. “I don’t live somewhere like Franklin Lakes.”
Municipalities are supposed to revaluate their properties at least every decade to ease such sticker shock. A state Superior Court recently ordered Paterson to finally conduct one.
From yesterday’s WSJ:
All eyes now turn to the Federal Reserve, which will hold its next meeting on interest rates Tuesday. Will the central bank be forced to acknowledge the subprime and credit-market problems in its post-meeting statement? Credit Suisse economist Neal M. Soss issued a note this afternoon on markets probing for the “Bernanke put.” He thinks that Chairman Bernanke & Co. will keep rates on hold and likely acknowledge “tightening financial conditions” as a risk to growth. But Dr. Soss believes inflation will remain the primary focus. “The Greek philosophers and your Mother got it right: ‘Moderation in all things’ — even renewed appreciation of credit risk – remains the desired goal. The authorities, whether at the Bank of England, the ECB, or the Fed, have been visibly unwilling to rescue us from ourselves at this point, but will the risk management practices of market participants take the system past the tipping point?,” he wrote. “Until that question is answered, one way or the other, Treasuries are justified in trading at rich valuations relative to prevailing risk-free rates like fed funds.”
BC Bob Says:
August 4th, 2007 at 9:46 am
rebear,Across the board, IMO. Major profit centers are getting hit all over; derivatives, lbo’s, mbs. WS moves fast.
Bost: they will only whack if the spigot is turned off for this cycle…what say you?
The wholesome joys of childhood….
http://www.nypost.com/seven/08042007/news/regionalnews/mr__softee_dealt_hard_drugs__cops_regionalnews_erika_martinez_and_hasani_gittens.htm
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Housing Is Among `Biggest Bubbles,’ Rogers Says
The U.S. subprime-market rout that wiped out $2.1 trillion from global share values last week has “got a long way to go,” said Jim Rogers, who predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999.
This week’s rebound in equity markets hasn’t persuaded Rogers, 64, to pull out of bets that U.S. investment banks and homebuilders are heading for further declines.
“This was one of the biggest bubbles we’ve ever had in credit,” Rogers, chairman of New York-based Beeland Interests Inc., said in an interview from Hong Kong. “I have been and am still short the investment bankers in America. I’m also short homebuilders.”
The Morgan Stanley Capital International World Index plunged 5.3 percent last week, its worst weekly drop in five years, on concern defaults among subprime mortgages may be spilling over to other credit markets and hurting earnings and takeovers. Further losses may be in store even after the index, which tracks $32.6 trillion of stocks, advanced 0.7 percent this week.
“Given the stage of the credit cycle that we’re in now, we would have to expect more negative news popping up,” Beat Lenherr, who oversees $7 billion as chief investment officer for Asia at LGT Bank in Liechtenstein AG, said late yesterday in an interview in Singapore. “The market sentiment is a bit nervous to the degree that every bad news is answered with selling.”
“This is ridiculous,” said Santiago, 52, who must pay her $1,995 quarterly bill on a $508 monthly disability check. “I don’t live somewhere like Franklin Lakes.”
They should just increase the size of disability checks.
Lets see now. Does this mean that Corzine
will send more money to : Paterson,Trenton,
Pert Amboy,Elizabeth,Camden,Garfield,Newark,
Englewood,etc.
To bail out the increase in property taxes,off set by the sales tax increase.
NJ the “Welfare State”
“then I realized you are the agent, you are here making fun of your client… it is brilliant – making him look like the nut he is, it is so very John Mackey of Whole foods.”
KL,
You can’t fool a Kardinal. You are dead on.
#278 bi: You are an idiot. Now take off that gold blazer and say bye,…..bi.
I just watched an hour of Fox Business. BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY STOCKS!!!!! IT’S THE BEST ECONOMY E-V-E-R!!!!
Love the article in Newsday about a guy set to close on a trade up house in Garden City on Monday, both Lawyers sitting in American Home Mortagages offices for several hours till they are told AMH does not temporarily have the cash. Buyer said the deal was still on he needed a few days to find another mortgage. Well guy earned six figures at AMH himself and was fired that week. So Good Luck to that SELLER. AMH loans falling through and thousands of unemployed AMH six figure mortgage brokers unemployed should make a nice dent in third quarter housing numbers.
BY the way RAISE RATES NOW!!!!!!! I thought we wanted a housing collaspe. You guys are a bunch of housing cheerleaders.
#276 Robert I thought you said you were poor,
From Newsday:
As news emerged Friday that American Home Mortgage would file for bankruptcy, it was revealed that founder Michael Strauss sold almost $3.5 million in company stock the day before employees found out they’d be losing their jobs.
errrrrrrr …isn’t that “out there” in terms of securities law violations?
#231 Robert No The market is going to need us disciplined renters with down payments.This is a game for adults, not cry babies like your self.
#228 Robert: They go down w few points and then come up? Hav no idea what you are tlaking about, no surprise there.
As I said buyers contorl, or will contol this market, its just a matter of wiating fro delusional sellers to capitulate,and they will; many will hav no choice.
This is a game for adults, not cry babies.
Prices are definitely coming down. In Hanover Township, where we are looking to buy eventually, capes were selling in the high $400Ks back in ’04 and ’05. Now they are asking the low- to mid $400Ks, and some have sold for slightly under $400K. There is even a new listing for a two-bedroom, 1-bath, fully updated colonial for $374K! I have not seen that price on a house in this town since ’03.
Duck, my last house had central vac and it was worthless. Wrestling with those long ass hoses was much worse than rolling around a vacuum cleaner. Luckily I passed that house off to the next bagholder last year and am renting for less than half the monthly cost of that house.
Too bad you didn’t sell yours in time!
“#231 Robert No The market is going to need us disciplined renters with down payments.This is a game for adults, not cry babies like your self.”
I do not need you. You can’t afford my house. My house is mainly meant for peope who already own houses and are looking to trade up. It is not a starter home. Now, keep looking at your $400,000 POS houses. When you are ready to buy a REAL house, you know who to call.
And I am an agent? That’s a good one! I should show that to Mrs. Duck so she can get a good laugh!
“and am renting for less than half the monthly cost of that house.”
Yikes! Where are you renting? Jersey City Heights?
housing bubble in second run…
a friend of mine post his house in east brunswick (countrywood) for sale on internet a week ago for $620K. he got three bids in one week and end up $630K. the highest price in that development in 05 was $600K
“many will hav no choice.”
Oh really? Many of them have had the choice for the last 2 years. And they will continue having the choice for the next 2 years. I know a lot of sellers and ALL of them have the “choice.”
face it. plankton are gone.
smells like duck al’orange — er, I mean al’RED
good luck.
bi: get a financial advisor quick!
sl
“ok…someone please email me duck’s listing…now i am dying to see this house!”
Just picture a shoe box sitting on a postage stamp-sized lot.
One might classify the architectural style as “Late Staten Island.”
bi,
I’m anxiously waiting to hear why gold, “as expected” [your words] was up yesterday.
Un,
I would say that’s an insult to Staten Island.
White metal kitchen cabinets with hot pink walls and pink granite countertops? For a newer house, it’s a remarkably unappealing kitchen.
Jay #187, you weren’t kidding Cramer lost his mind — the co-host looked a bit scared!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=452808336
#336 bi: You know at one point I might have believed you, now I think you are just plain right out lying. And if what you say is true, lets see if the deal actually closes.
Are there still a few morons out there who will pay stupid prices, amazingly yes, however, the moron lenders are fast disappearing, or no longer being morons in their lending policies. So the last of the moron buyers are fast disappearing, since they cannot get the financing.
Do you see the fundamental change here grasshopper? Do you understand how this is playing out?
#334 Robert: First of all your house is not what I would consider a trade up house, in any town.
Actually its quite ugly. Second nobody grasshopper trades up to Cliffside Park.
Third nobody wants your house, it should be plain to you at this point.
And why little to no furniture? To use realtor speak, it does not show well.
Maybe you can pick up a few knick knacks and cheapo furniture from IKEA.
I need you. You can’t afford my house, and sadly I cannot afford my house. And If I had known better I would never have purchased in Cliffside.
My house is mainly meant for peope who do not know CLiffside Park, about figure they can buy with no money down. I have been waiting for them for over 1 year now, and no luck own I deluded myself and thought I would make a ton of money on it, adn that people would consider it a trade up house. Sadly the only thing that turns up are their noses, when they look at, adn then they giggle when they hear the asking price.
I think they gigggle because they are trying not ot be rude, they really want to roar with laughter.
It is not a starter home, its not a move up home, in a move up town, I really do not know what it is. One looker likened it to a Masoleum. I wonder if I could get the zoning chganged.
Now, keep looking at your $400,000 POS houses. I wish I could sell mine at that price, but I am up to my eyeballs in mortgage debt, ehnce the ugly red couch and plastic picnic cloth on my dining room table.
If you are looking for a real house, sadly I cannot help.
“the moron lenders are fast disappearing, or no longer being morons in their lending policies.”
3b,
The borrowing/leverage windows, on the street, are closing so fast you would think it it was a Taco Bell joint infested with rats.
“And I am an agent? That’s a good one! I should show that to Mrs. Duck so she can get a good laugh!”
I have a feeling that Mrs. Duck could use a good laugh.
The other day I stated that we put in a “verbal” offer on a house but it never reached the seller because someone bid higher the same day. The house was on the market for 55 days with no bid and was listed at 650K.
We thought it was too high and said we’d be willing to go up to 550K. Anyway, I spoke to the realtor yesterday and he said that the potential buyers bid is at 615K and the sellers are holding out because they want 630K. These sellers better be careful because their cockiness may jump up and bite them real hard. The buyers should say buh-bye if their (overpriced) bid gets rejected. These greedy, f***ing sellers are holding out for 15 grand on a bagholder bid. I guess arogance and stupidity still reign supreme.
Bost,
But what happens next?
They try to fund those deals again after Labor Day? But why would things be any better then? I don’t think the Fed is going to ease, no matter how much Cramer rants like a lunatic.
This bit where KL and Clot think the Duck is actually the Duck’s realtor spoofing the client … is this like the realtor version of gaydar? :)
I thought it was one of our regulars, someone with a sense of humor.
Just to remind you have what happens if you are patient:
Westwood:
Sold WESTEND AVE $556,000 4/16/2004
ACT WESTEND AVE $708,000 9/14/2006
PCH WESTEND AVE $699,000 10/15/2006
PCH WESTEND AVE $665,000 11/20/2006
PCH WESTEND AVE $650,000 1/13/2007
ACT WESTEND AVE $599,000 2/16/2007
PCH WESTEND AVE $579,000 3/15/2007
PCH WESTEND AVE $564,900 3/27/2007
PCH WESTEND AVE $549,900 4/10/2007
As usual, Rich, thank you. This is just more evidence that if you wait, prices will drop. Note the $50,000 drop in asking price IN ONE MONTH earlier this year.
Bagholders are in trouble.
Donald, I thought you watched all of those HGTV shows! You didn’t use any of that newly found knowledge to stage your house. Maybe you should call “Designed to Sell” & get Lisa LaPorta to do something about that hideous kitchen. Also, is that vinyl tile on the soon-to-be-in-a-ravine balcony? eeeww.
“As usual, Rich, thank you. This is just more evidence that if you wait, prices will drop. Note the $50,000 drop in asking price IN ONE MONTH earlier this year.
Bagholders are in trouble.”
As ususal, you do not knoiw what you are talking about. The house is priced at $7,000 less than what it was purchased for in 2004. $10k… that is all you are saving. ANd as fart as the original $708,000 asking price, that means nothing. Only SOLD prices count, not asking.
COngratualtations, you waited and you saved $7,000. If you wait another year, maybe you will save another $7k!
“$10k… that is all you are saving.”
I meant $7,000… that is all you are saving. Pitty that $7k will go right to the bank in the form of a much higer interest rate.
Projected Savings by Waiting: $0
Robert,
Is that really your house from the link in the other thread?
“For a newer house, it’s a remarkably unappealing kitchen.”
My house has 2 kitchens. The other one is a secret and there are no pictures of it in the MLS. Watch and learn grasshopper!
I wonder what buyers should do with ther $7,000 they are saving by waithing out the market. I came up with some ideas:
Install granite counters in the kitchen (oh wait, $7k is not enought to do this)
Buy a Sub Zero refridge (oh wait, Sub Zero just raised their prices due to a strong demand for their products)
Install central vaccum (oh wait, that is only for new construction, not POS capes)
Buy a parking spot in Manhattan (oops, that costs $250,000!)
Oh well, I guess you will just have to use that $7k for closing costs!
I’m not spoofing Duck, are you spoofing Duck?
—
Donny, you’re much more likeable when you talk about the family, instead of the house falling into the river and the yard going to seed.
If you’re really trying to dump the thing, keep talking family, morals, respectability and love of your wife.
Maybe some dufus will come along on this blog at just the right time.
But you have to play this one carefully. You wouldn’t want a regular letting the cat out of the bag.
———
O.K., everybody, if we can get his house sold, we won’t have to hear about it anymore, or look at the pics anymore.
Everybody keep quiet if anybody comes along and asks him about it.
#352 Gary
Yes
“O.K., everybody, if we can get his house sold, we won’t have to hear about it anymore, or look at the pics anymore.”
You do know that you guys brought this upon yourself? Your the ones who posted the link in the first place, not me! I even denied owning the house when the link was first posted.
oh my, everybody keep your children off of the kannekt forum. The place has gone R-rated!
This is exactly what happens when 3b is allowed to post on kannekt!
If anybody needs a lift on Monday throughout the day, click here.
It helped me a little last week….there’s still something to be made of a place of hidden predators and sudden drops:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KyyB3dz5PE8
We love you Robert? We really do.
Robert,
As ususal, you do not knoiw what you are talking about. The house is priced at $7,000 less than what it was purchased for in 2004. $10k… that is all you are saving. ANd as fart as the original $708,000 asking price, that means nothing. Only SOLD prices count, not asking.
Tell me you have a financial planner that looks after your assets because you are obviously clueless. You see, there is this thing called inflation… never mind. You either don’t want to know or can’t understand.
Let me sum it up for you. Living in your dream world I’ll make believe that you won’t have to pay commission or closing costs.
You would have to sell your house for approximately $880,000 to break even due to inflation.
Anyway, this was stuck in moderation since Thursday (haven’t looked at Fridays Hotsheet)
From yesterday’s NJMLS “Hotsheet”:
Cliffside Park
SLD EDGEWATER RD $610,000 9/20/2005
SLD EDGEWATER RD $529,000 8/2/2007
Closter
SLD HOMANS AVE $1,500,000 3/22/2006
SLD HOMANS AVE $1,535,000 8/1/2007
(2.3% / not even in line with inflation let alone commission and closing costs)
Old Tappan
ACT ORANGEBURGH RD $659,000 8/18/2006
SLD ORANGEBURGH RD $545,000 8/2/2007
Ridgewood
SLD S PLEASANT AVE $425,000 8/15/2002
SLD S PLEASANT AVE $495,000 8/1/2007
(3.1%/year)
ACT WALL ST $639,000 3/13/2007
SLD WALL ST $591,000 8/2/2007
ACT LOTTE RD $1,795,000 2/23/2007
SLD LOTTE RD $1,550,000 8/1/2007
This board really needs clowns like Bi and Troll. Both just have absolutely no clue what’s going on.
Asking prices are going down like a $10 hooker and these guys think it’s a good time to buy.
hahahahahahahaha
As my handle suggests, this winter, after all the resetting loans (ha! $50 BILLION), serious deals will be had. If you couldn’t sell your house this summer, you’re in trouble.
Just hack $50 k off the asking and hope someone takes you up on it.
Bloodbath,
Since I have “absolutely no clue what’s going on,” can you please explain to me how prices are “going down like a $10 hooker” based on Rich’s example, which you seemed to admire so much?
Westwood:
Sold WESTEND AVE $556,000 4/16/2004
PCH WESTEND AVE $549,900 4/10/2007
Could it be that, perhaps (as Clot has said thousands of time already) asking prices DO NOT MATTER? Perhaps only sold prices matter.
Amateurs judge the mraket based on ASKING PRICES
Experts judge the market based on SOLD PRICES
Johnny Winter:
your handle suggests a snow sleet mix.
“Just hack $50 k off the asking and hope someone takes you up on it.”
I will take you up on this offer. After I raised the price and after I dump my commission realtor and hire a flat fee one, I will make out good if you offer me $50k off the current asking price.
I also think my builder neighbor will take an offer for $50k under asking. His asking price is $1.5 million.
hi robert,
I understand your house is for sale…
Keep telling yourself that.
For buyers, asking price matters. If the house i want is $700,000, why should I buy now? Based on Rich’s great example (he posts one of these basically every day), along with everything else that is going on in the market today, there is a good chance that the 700k house will be on sale for $690,000 in September. And $680,000 in October (or, since nobody buys after Sept. 1, he lowers it to 670k).
And when the banks start foreclosing like repo men in Nov/Dec (surely you saw this NYT story
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/01/business/01leonhardt.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
what our seller to do? Keep lowering the price by small increments, or get a leg-up on the other houses that will be flooding the market this winter and drop his asking price by $50,000 or more? (or option C – he doesn’t need to sell, so he takes his house off the market and we, the buyers, just look at one of the many, many other owners who are lowering their prices.)
This is why if buyers can be patient until the winter, they can get a great deal on the house they want.
Sadly, I don’t think you get it – for the next year or year and a half, the buyer will rule. They can be patient, picky, and save while they rent. You don’t want to lower your price? Fine. There are plenty that will.
You lose, bagholder.
“I understand your house is for sale…”
What are you implying? Be nice to me or else the price goes up to $999,000!
Speaking of raising prices, one of the reasons I did this is that I want Rich to move to NC already. When he finally moves there, maybe I will CONSIDER lowering my price.
359#
i have no clue whats going on? one week ago i said fed would have no choice but cutting rate. now your loved cramer also cried for.
with volatility in stocks caused by subprime, i strongly suggested that RE is better inverstment at this point of time. so as Gold. but not oil.
286# clotpoll, why should i get margin call at first place? my only net long is PPH, which closed 77.25 Friday, 0.5% off my base (77.60). I believe it will outperform SP500 since 90% on this board needs medical treatment of depression by next spring.
Besides, please check out XHB v.s. WM/CFC, and GLD v.s. USO.
Again, I reiterate my prediction of RE 10% up in certain NJ towns and I will not be surprised by 20% up in some more speculative properties such as condos in GC.
Only Robert, me and a few others on this board know whats going on in reality. you guys are just media headlight followers.
“other houses that will be flooding the market this winter”
The market does not get flooded with inventory in the winter. That happens in the spring and early summer. Anyone who wants to sell puts their home on the market in the winter. I walked by a house that is for sale earlier today. Guess what: the sign is down and the listing has been withdrawn. The house a block away from them, the same exact thing happened. The sign has been taken down. I know of at least 6 examples of this occuring. THere was another McMansion for sale in town, and the listing was also withdrawn this month.
For the seven thousandth time Bloodbath, the house that Rich posted only came down by $7,000 dollars. If someone were to buy the house tomorrow for full asking price, did the sellers really lose a lot of money? Did the buyers save a lot of money?
I watched a new house flipping show today on TLC. A lady in Texas sold her house for a $80,000 profit in only 2 weeks.
who wants to buy my dollar? I’d like to hold an auction tonight at midnight.
If anyone would like to bid on my single, US $1.00 bill, greenback extraordinaire, please let me know. The bidding will start at $.25
Anyone who attempts to manipulate the bids by whining about how their buddies on the street are going to be hurt by the result will be thrown out on their arse.
best of luck!
duck (362)-
If the agent represents nothing more to you than a cost center (which your decision to go to a flat-fee service seems to indicate), why did you hire a full-time agent to begin with?
Also, do you think the buying public is ignorant of limited-skill, flat-fee agency? What do you think that your going to this arrangement says to your buyer pool?
Your house is insanely overpriced. You have also recently admitted that it’s a deathtrap. It is currently being merchandised much in the same way one might offer a double-wide trailer in the middle of Kansas. You also seem to have started a new trend in interior design: Post-Modern Desperate.
Other than the small obstacles outlined above- and the fact that no one wants to buy your house- you’re doing great. Congratulations on coming to the realization that using a flat-fee agent could save you thousands of theoretical dollars on a home that will never sell.
Perhaps you can stand in front of your home wearing a barrel on suspenders…or a sandwich board. I think your local media would give you some free coverage.
“for the next year or year and a half, the buyer will rule.”
So the “buyer’s market” will only last for another year and a half? That is no problem, it will go buy quick and I will sit for that time.
And as far as bi’s 10% appreciation prediction, he is right on the money. Gold Coast devleopers control the market. They have enormous political power and control the entire political landscape and they have buyers form Manhattan lining up to buy shoeboxes, I mean condos.
However, the GC market has weakened a little bit. I now see some developers offering buyers the time of day for free!
just testing
Troll (369)-
I stared at the Sun for a few seconds today. It hurt my eyes, so I stopped.
Clot,
It was only recently that I learned about flat fee realtors. That is why I did not hire one. I also doubt that my use of one will have an affect on the buyer pool. Of course, you need to protect the future of your profession so you will try to scare me away from using them.
“You also seem to have started a new trend in interior design: Post-Modern Desperate.”
Not to worry! I just got the 2008 IKEA catalog in the mail today. I can load up a few shopping carts with furniture and radically change the dacor of the house, just as soon as I finsih assmebling everyhting.
Clot,
See #281
Duck (375)-
It may come as a surprise to you to know that NAR has not entrusted me with protecting the future of the RE profession.
Limited-skill agency is a good fit for you. You’ll be saving theoretical dollars on a house that will never sell.
Best of all, you won’t be wasting one single second of a good Realtor’s time.
Enjoy your new prime marketing position on top of the reject heap.
It was only recently that I learned about flat fee realtors
I’m guessing your realtor told you about it.
I would have.
KL
Bullspit!! Don’t try to question my patriotism while you are on the front lines of those trying to undermine the real estate markets. By extension, that also includes Pat, BC Bob, b3, Clod and many of the rest of the gang here.
Flipping helped the economy just like the heady stock matket of the 90’s did. This put more money in everyone’s pocket thus allowing spending. Consumer spending is 2/3rd of the economy here in America. Anything that puts money into people’s pocket to spend is a good thing.
As to borrowing from China, that’s bullspit to. The chinese have no place to put their money other than mainly into USD denominated investments. Sure, they’re trying to diversify their reserves, but they can only get so far with that. We still carry the big stick and can make them behave.
Now, granted, I do think it’s problematic that they’re making so many goods for us and would like to see more good manufactured here, but let’s face it, some folks here don’t want to work. China is not a problem as long as we keep them in their place.
RentinginNJ Says:
August 4th, 2007 at 12:12 am
What we have here are a few people who want to undermine this economy.
Reinvestor,
As a flipper, you’re the one that has undermined the economy.
Selling houses back and forth to each other with money we borrowed from Communist China is not the underpinning of a strong economy.
The housing bubble has taken capital away from real economic progress and diverted it toward installing granite countertops and stainless steel refrigerators.
Being a true American does not mean buying your overpriced investment property.
That’s what you get when you have tax and spend liberals in office all over NJ. New Jerseyans need to change their voting habits as only then we you see change.
James Bednar Says:
August 4th, 2007 at 10:20 am
From the Herald News:
Levies reflect property revaluations
Residents marched to the mayor’s office and jammed City Hall phone lines Friday to protest property tax increases levied by the first citywide property revaluation in decades.
Throughout the day, dozens of homeowners wielding the yellow bills descended on the Tax Assessor’s Office to inquire if they really must now pay the amount stated in the bills mailed out earlier this week.
Of a dozen people interviewed at City Hall on Friday, only one saw a tax bill decrease.
Sandra Santiago saw her bill jump from $572 to $1,995. For Victor Ellis, the taxes on his first home increased from $2,300 to more than $5,300, according to the letter he received. Clara Baker’s quarterly tax bill went from about $560 to $1,529….
It is hard to understand why someone who continually bombards the blog with posts which contradict each other still elicits responses as if the posts were rational.
You know what? I think you’re full of evil. For anyone to cheerlead as you do about hoping others encounter misery, something has got to be seriously wrong. Just stop posting for awhile. That might help you and help me from not having to read your constant harangues here on this board.
Bloodbath in Winter 2007 Says:
August 4th, 2007 at 11:06 pm
Keep telling yourself that.
For buyers, asking price matters. If the house i want is $700,000, why should I buy now? Based on Rich’s great example (he posts one of these basically every day), along with everything else that is going on in the market today, there is a good chance that the 700k house will be on sale for $690,000 in September. And $680,000 in October (or, since nobody buys after Sept. 1, he lowers it to 670k).
And when the banks start foreclosing like repo men in Nov/Dec (surely you saw this NYT story
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/01/business/01leonhardt.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
what our seller to do? Keep lowering the price by small increments, or get a leg-up on the other houses that will be flooding the market this winter and drop his asking price by $50,000 or more? (or option C – he doesn’t need to sell, so he takes his house off the market and we, the buyers, just look at one of the many, many other owners who are lowering their prices.)
This is why if buyers can be patient until the winter, they can get a great deal on the house they want.
Sadly, I don’t think you get it – for the next year or year and a half, the buyer will rule. They can be patient, picky, and save while they rent. You don’t want to lower your price? Fine. There are plenty that will.
You lose, bagholder.
“I watched a new house flipping show today on TLC. A lady in Texas sold her house for a $80,000 profit in only 2 weeks.”
It was filmed last year.
UBS expects the Fed funds rate to be at 4.75% by end of 2007
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/mortgage-crisis-may-prompt-fed/story.aspx?guid=%7B34328864%2DDF32%2D4FA9%2DB68E%2D70DB7074F33A%7D
the first RE boom in this century started soon after 9/11. now subprime crisis is triggering second RE boom, which will last for next 6 to 10 years until chinese money flows back to buy mathantan real estate as japanese did 20 years ago.
Any one want to quickly explain shorting stocks to a novice?
Option ARM Question…
The Credit Suisse ARM reset schedule shows the bulk of Option ARMs resetting in a 3 – 5 year time period.
http://www.itulip.com/images/armadjust.gif
On first look, one could conclude that “at least we have some time before we have to deal with Option ARM resets”.
Option ARMs really have 2 interest rates though.
– A teaser rate that serves as the basis for the minimum payment (say 1.99%).
– A second, much higher, rate is the actual interest rate used to calculate the full payment to amortize the loan (maybe 8%).
The teaser rate (1.99%) is often fixed for the first 5 years and is likely what is reflected in the chart.
HOWEVER, the teaser rate can expire before 5 years if the loan reaches its negative amortization cap (recast trigger). If you only make the minimum payment, you defer interest. You can only build up so much deferred interest before the loan is recast and the minimum payment option goes away and you are required to make the full payment.
Is my understanding correct?
If so, how many people make only the minimum payment?
How many of these loans will actually make it to 5 years and how many will hit a recast event before 5 years?
Flipping helped the economy
This is like saying drinking a massive amount of alcohol is good because it helped me stay up all night. All you really did was temporarily stave the hangover, but in reality made it much worse when it does come.
Flipping is just economic smoke and mirrors. All it did was temporarily stave off a recession caused by the dot com meltdown. Rather than taking our medicine, going through a recession, but wringing out the excess and emerging as a stronger country, we simply traded one bubble for another.
As a result, we have major economic imbalances that need to be corrected. I’m not looking forward to that. It’s going to be painful, people are going lose their homes and billions of investment dollars will be lost. I’m not cheerleading for that. However, I think a correction is inevitable, necessary and I’m looking forward to moving past this whole fiasco.
“reinvestor101 Says:
August 4th, 2007 at 11:55 pm
Bullspit!!”
I had my quant, down the hall, run a monte carlo simulation. He inputed reinvestor 101. Lo and behold out came witless market maven 50.5, or for those that don’t comprehend 50-1/2.
Subsequently, I tried bi and duck. Jokingly the simulation asked what is the subliminal message. After I banged it, it came back sorry, this blackbox does not have the data mining capability to rate harebrained, moronic individuals.
“Don’t try to question my patriotism while you are on the front lines of those trying to undermine the real estate markets”
50.5 {381],
Simply the most asinine post that I have read on this site.
OK, I am an ignoramus. I will be patriotic and pay a 25 p/e, price/rent ratio. I am a pinhead paying $25 to receive a return of $1.00. That’s OK, since I am supporting the economy and my role is significant in advancing this ponzi scheme. Francis Scott Key would be mortified.
How about 30% off 2005, no contingencies, fill or kill. Oh, by the way, God Bless America. If you’re insulted; 祝你好運, or in Teochew, 祝福.
Flipping helped keep American families out of a decent home, as speculators added paint, “granite,” and “stainless steel,” then reselling properties to idiots who outbid each other with zero down ARMs.
Sane American families shook their heads in disbelief these last 5 years, as speculators scooped up every ‘fixer upper’ in sight, preventing hardworking American families from getting into a starter home.
The sane American family didn’t want or need “granite” or “stainless steel,” and now awaits patiently for bagholder speculators and zero down ARM idiots to foreclose.
30% off 2005 — fill or kill
Yes, yes.
a good laugh, was posted in thehousingbubbleblog
Comment by WMD1964
2007-08-04 17:10:31
I have a 1998 Dodge Stratus, 225k miles. I put a For Sale sign in the rear window:$20,000 FIRM and my cell number. Two days and this guy calls:
Me: hello
He: are you the freaking idiot selling a pos dodge for 20k?
Me: Yep
He: are you freaking crazy?
Me: I have two offers, would you like to join the bidding, sir?
He freaked out. As if he already hadn’t.
http://www.modbee.com/business/story/34804.html
“I don’t know how long this can go on before some of these traders hit the breaking point…”
#387,
Yes, you’re correct, as soon as the loan reaches 110% or 115% the payment will recast to a fully amortizing. There’s a lot of people making minimum payments or payments based on their 1% teaser rate, which they though was their fixed rate for the life of the loan. Regardless of the payment recast, these loans were so poorly underwitten that borrowers with 700+ FICO default in the first 12 months, which is unheard of. If you look at the negam deals in the last 3 years, 10% of them are delinquent, with 700+ FICO, that’s a crime and the loan underwriter should be in jail.
#391,
Thank you, thank you; you’re so right. It was me in 2005 shaking my head in disbelief but I had no choice but to buy because the idiot next to me was willing to bid 10% more with his subprime mortgage.
Did anyone see all the expiring listings this week? In NJ it was about 2000 of them.
‘And even if the Fed did arrive on the scene, with the exception of a brief blip, it may be too little to late. “There is no watershed solution,” is the way my pal, Todd Harrison, put it in one of his missives today at Minyanville.com. “We the people have made our bed with massive spending, incessant borrowing and no saving.” Amen.’
http://usmarket.seekingalpha.com/article/43523
Frank (397)-
I bet most of those were 6-month listings that came on market right around the Super Bowl. Probably more to come, right up to Sept. 1.
Except this year, the deal flow has slowed so much, whatever inventory is left will still be too much to be absorbed at a normal rate. Also, the inventory will have some very nervous and desperate sellers behind it.
I also predict a record number of listings coming on market this Fall and Winter. Remember, those ARM resets are going to come fast and furious as the weather cools.
These new arrivals will not be delusional sellers, either. Many of them already know they’re staring down the barrel of a short sale. Believe me, my agents and I have a big bucket of slop…and we’re gonna toss it into the trough, starting Sept. 1.
I was in Alpine yesterday.
Alot of For Sale signs by Sotheby’s.
I was a little surprized to see this in an “upscale” town.
sas
Clotpoll,
Throw everything against the wall and see what sticks aye…
; )
SAS
Interesting analogy…
‘The credit bordello has enjoyed some wild times in the past few years, luring customers into the room at the back where the exotica are displayed. As the raid ensnares more and more of the regulars, newcomers are likely to become increasingly wary of the derivatives market’s wares. And when the piano player is led off to jail, the music stops.’
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a31pp7slShC8&refer=home
Head Cheese
Bologna
Forcemeat
Braunschweiger
Liverwurst
Weisswurst
Cotto Salami
Olive Loaf
Hi all,
As this housing collapse unravels, everyone will start pointing fingers. In your opinion, rank, in order, who you believe is the most responsible for this bubble.
Alan Greenspan
Wall Street
Mortgage Lenders & Brokers
Home buyers & speculators
Realtors
Appraisers
Home builders
Banks
Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae
Media
Let’s hear it!
Mike (405)-
You left out one:
Human Nature
Clot,
Yes, thank you my response was going to be how about the sheeple.
KL
Clot,
What was the “deathtrap” aspect of the potential Robert house? (I must have missed it among the several hundred weekend posts.)
Thanks,
Eagle
Eagle,
You didn’t miss it. It was back in Monday’s thread, where “Robert” started talking about the cracks in the foundation. Since the house sits on a cliff, that’s the “death trap” aspect.
Alan Greenspan, without low rates, this would never happened. He should be in jail right now with Ebbers and Kozlowski.
Clot, you said:
Believe me, my agents and I have a big bucket of slop…and we’re gonna toss it into the trough, starting Sept. 1.
What kind of slop? New houses, old houses? Good houses, bad houses?
Is new construction coming down faster than the older houses?
What about the “active adult” communities?
Hey,
Just checking in after concentrating on things other than Real Estate for a few months.
Looks as though we are going through the predicted phases of the downturn.
With the continuing negative developments, 2008 bottom is for sure, with possibly 2009 the new bottom…
Almost done here in Europe.. Will be coming home Tuesday evening.
jb
JB,
How’s Poland?
From the WSJ:
Home Myths Meet Reality
Builders Were Supposed
To Handle Downturn;
What Went Wrong?
By MICHAEL CORKERY
August 4, 2007; Page B1
Recently, the nation’s largest home builder, D.R. Horton Inc., reported the first quarterly loss in its 15-year history as a public company.
Yet, only two years ago, Donald Tomnitz, Horton’s chief executive, declared confidently: “We can earn our way through any economic cycle, except one like the Great Depression.” The Great Depression hasn’t hit — but Horton’s earnings have declined more severely than most anyone imagined.
Builders are struggling with a glut of land at the same time that home prices are falling. Above, a D.R. Horton home for sale in Fort Worth, Texas, and a Hovanian Enterprises project in Stetson Ranch in Santa Clarita, Calif.
Another big home builder, Beazer Homes USA Inc., was beset by rumors the past week that it might be filing for bankruptcy-law protection. Beazer firmly denies the rumors. Still, housing analysts are fretting that banks will clamp down on lending to some builders — squeezing them of cash just when they might need it.
It wasn’t supposed to happen like this. Today’s home builders were thought to be better-capitalized, savvier and more geographically diverse than many of their predecessors in the last downturn, in the early 1990s. While many are expected to weather the slump, concern is mounting about the balance sheets of a growing number of companies.
Amid a broad retreat in housing stocks on Friday, Horton shares fell 4%, Beazer plunged 13% and Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. sagged 9.4% in 4 p.m. New York Stock Exchange composite trading.
What’s going wrong? An array of business assumptions that both builders and housing analysts propagated have turned out to be misguided.
The ‘Cash Machine’ Fallacy
One big assumption had to do with their cash flow: The common wisdom among some analysts was that builders would turn into “cash machines” in the event of a housing downturn, because they would pare construction and land buying.
In reality, most builders haven’t been able to stockpile as much cash as expected. That is partly because they have had to keep building large housing developments, even though demand dropped off sharply.
“Once you start putting in the plumbing hookups and the roads, you can’t abandon these projects halfway,” says Nishu Sood, a housing analyst at Deutsche Bank, because a half-built development risks angering homeowners and local officials.
Also eating into that cash flow: the sharp drop in sales and home prices. After several years of double-digit annual increases, some builders say their average prices are down 7% to 12%.
The incentives that companies are using to sell homes are so large that they are crippling profits. Take Miami-based Lennar Corp., which said its average incentives were $43,700 on houses worth an average of $342,000. That is up from a year ago, when incentives averaged $24,700. And Lennar has one of the best cash flows in the industry.
Others are in a different boat. As of April 30, the Red Bank, N.J., builder Hovnanian had negative cash flow from operations for the trailing 12 months, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
“We are confident that we will be cash-flow positive in the fourth quarter,” said Hovnanian’s chief financial officer, Larry Sorsby. “We have been a little slower to generate cash than some of our peers because we were one of the fastest-growing home builders. It takes a little longer for us to slow down the train.”
http://online.wsj.com/article_print/SB118618271832887837.html
Troll, i really feel bad for you. You clearly didn’t read the NYT link. $50 billion in ARM resets in October. If 5% of those owners have to foreclose, that is a lot of houses flooding the market.
If you’re just looking to cash out, you don’t have much to worry about. If you need to sell for whatever reason, or you were the last one holding the bag when the music stopped in 2005/2006 … well, you need to explore options such as taking a loss on the house (like CNBC guy said) or die a slow death. The quicker these homeowners come to this reality, the better.
Me, evil? Sorry. Wrong guy. I could have been a bagholder. I flipped a house out of state and as soon as i saw this board projecting doom and gloom, i wisened up, dropped the price $30k, and sold it.
The reason sellers don’t want to lower their price is greed. Greed is a bad thing.
My post #415 is in moderation.
But the WSJ had this story yesterday:
Home Myths Meet Reality
Builders Were Supposed
To Handle Downturn;
What Went Wrong?
By MICHAEL CORKERY
August 4, 2007; Page B1
#405
the people who bought the houses, the hype and the lies spun by all the others you mentioned. granted some are to young to know that prices can go down too but the boomers who forgot the late 80’s early 90’s have no excuse. you can’t buy mansions w/ min wage pay.
I have to say the advice from boomers in my life was buy buy and of course buy. and I think many of them still feel that way.
#385 Nobody forced them to buy, and if they could not buy with a FRM and at least 10% down then they should not have bought.
These standards were there for a reason. Suck it up cream puff, when markets get out of control they collapse, its happend before, its happening now, and it will happen agsin.
They can loose the house, go rent for a while, clena up their mess etc.
Big arrogant know it alls when the market was booming, now abunch of cry babies.
#374 Its over Robert, the party is over, you missed it. ALl your howling at the moon will not change that,
bi: There are no Cramer fans here (as far as I know), although he is very entertaining. ANd another big cry baby. WAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!
1. Greed
2. Whoever was pushing the I/O loans
As this housing collapse unravels, everyone will start pointing fingers. In your opinion, rank, in order, who you believe is the most responsible for this bubble.
Alan Greenspan
Wall Street
Mortgage Lenders & Brokers
Home buyers & speculators
Realtors
Appraisers
Home builders
Banks
Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae
Media
#419 cross Many of the Boomers are clueless.
#382 RE “those trying to undermine the real estate markets” ? That is an idiotic statement. What a crybaby WAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
#368 bi “Again, I reiterate my prediction of RE 10% up in certain NJ towns and I will not be surprised by 20% up in some more speculative properties such as condos in GC.”
Condos up by 20% in speculative areas? 10% increases in RE in certain towns?
Again bi, based on what? With all that has and is transoiring, how could any reasonably sane person make these kinsd of ludicrious predictions?
You r posts are filled with ocntradictions, for instance when the market was up earlier last Friday, you procalimed wonder ful day for home buyers, then when it was down still wonderful day etc.
Robert is at least entertaining, you are on the other hand….. I will leave it a that.
“I watched a new house flipping show today on TLC. A lady in Texas sold her house for a $80,000 profit in only 2 weeks.”
“It was filmed last year.”
Nice try, but my TIVO information screen said 2007.
“Condos up by 20% in speculative areas? 10% increases in RE in certain towns?
Again bi, based on what? With all that has and is transoiring, how could any reasonably sane person make these kinsd of ludicrious predictions?”
Condos on the Gold Coast will be up 10%. It has already happened. In Jersey City, K Hov priced one of their new high rises at nearly $900 a square foot for a condo with NO VIEW. Before they announced pricing last month, comaprable buildings were priced at $600 a square foot pre-construction. All of the buyers on kannekt are really angy because many of them waitied so that they can buy into this building, but then got turned away by K Hov’s high prices.
Bloodbath and Clot,
What you state about inventory this winter increasing makes no sense. If so many people are going to be forced to sell, why are so many sellers withdrawing their listings right now?
I just watched the ” Cramer rant” and my question to Mr. Cramer would be where was the rant 2 years ago when the millions were taking teaser rates and piggyback loans driving up the price in RE to unprecadented levels? where the hell was that rant? it was all good when you were making $$
all I can say is WAHHHHHHHHHH!
I know that NAR is running scared from flat fee realtors. Wasn’t there a huge lawsuit recently where NAR was trying to prevent these realtors from having access to the MLS, but the federal government said that NAR cannot monopolize the MLS and must give the discount realtors access to it?
“I was in Alpine yesterday.
Alot of For Sale signs by Sotheby’s.
I was a little surprized to see this in an “upscale” town.”
Yes, lots of listings, and ZERO of them for under $1 million. There was a POS 2 family I was keeping track of in Alpine for under $1 million, but it has been withdrawn for the ten thousandth time.
Can someone with MLS access give me the status of the listing? It is at 1002 Closter Dock Road.
#430 They withdraw listings now, end of summer, last minute vacations, back to school etc.
When that is over come early Sept, the houses come back watch and see.
3b,
I have seen this pattern of withdrwn listings for the last 2 years and the overhelming majoity of them do not come back until April or May. They are not going to be back in September.
It’s impossible to speak with someone who simply refuses to read.
Troll – read the NYT link above. $50 billion in ARM LOANS reset in October of this year.
Lots of people will NOT be able to afford the mortgage. All those stories you’ve read about people making 40k buying a $600,000 house with no money down? This is who we’re talking about.
Mortgages will spike and these owners will either be forced to sell or simply walk away from their homes. It’s that simple.
It’s fine if you want to disagree with me and this link. Don’t like the raw numbers? Fine. But clot is AN ACTUAL REALTOR. He’s been around here long enough that you can take his word on this one.
Troll, you should lower that house to 600k and sell is asap.
3b,
How much are you planning to spend on a house? Considering that you lived in Bergen County for such a long time, why aren’t you spending more so that you can get a REAL house? Why is it that most of the long time Bergen residents are all broke and live in POS houses while the new arrivals are the ones with money and who live in the more pricey new construction?
Many of these ARM loans you talk about were converted to fixed rate loans.
#405 THE BLAME GAME
I would place a hefty share of the blame on Mortgage Brokers who pushed these toxic loans on borrowers not savvy enough to know where the blow-up would be.
I have heard so many current homeowners state that “he never explained THAT to me” Some of these bagholders don’t even know they have adjustable mortgages. There will be a Fire Drill this fall when the first of the mortgage change notices start arriving in the mail.
Couple that increase with the new Tax Assessment notices….let’s just say I wouldn’t want to be a mail carrier in certain New Jersey towns.
Clot,
What was the “deathtrap” aspect of the potential Robert house? (I must have missed it among the several hundred weekend posts.)
Thanks,
Eagle
ME: It’s Robert Troll coming after you with a Glock after you laugh in his face over his ridiculously-inflated asking price.
I am suprised Alpine has for sale signs Back in 1991 a lot of upscale towns passed laws forbiding for sales signs as supposedly they reduce property values. Hard to get top price when everyone on the block has a for sale sign. Certain towns to this day still have those laws on the books.
Troll – what is your evidence that ‘many’ of the loans were converted to fixed rate loans? Where are you getting this from? Can you provide a link?
You guys absolutely have to go to this blog and read some of the posts. Unbelieveable. Coming directly from the source and some still think there’s an agenda.
http://forum.brokeroutpost.com/loans/forum/1/2.htm
What is wrong with a flat fee. A full service realtor in my town has always done it on the side for a 10K flat fee. Catch is she does it only for short sales, stop bankruptcy, quick estates. She plops an open house sign does and open house and it it gone. She does not do flat fees on full price houses. She claims if someone wants to sell a 600K house for 520k she makes more at 10K then if it is 600K at 6%. The 10K is an exclusive so she gets it all. The 6% is split so it is 18K, but with five times the advetising costs and five times the open houses and work but not even double the profit.
“Troll, you should lower that house to 600k and sell is asap.”
Your desperation is showing. Why should I olwer my price if there are supposed to be hundreds of low priced houses flooding the market this winter?
Robert sez: “I watched a new house flipping show today on TLC. A lady in Texas sold her house for a $80,000 profit in only 2 weeks.”
UnRealtor sez: “It was filmed last year.”
Robert sez: “Nice try, but my TIVO information screen said 2007.”
Since you’re probably serious, the date listed in Tivo is not the date a program was filmed.
In Tenafly, you have to get a permit to have a for sale sign. And in many NYC apartment buildings, open houses are strictly prohibited.
“Since you’re probably serious, the date listed in Tivo is not the date a program was filmed.”
So where is your proof that the episode was filmed last year? Why do you have to be the spin doctor who turns positive information into negative?
“sales signs as supposedly they reduce property values. Hard to get top price when everyone on the block has a for sale sign.”
Today for sale signs do not matter since homes that are for sale are also on the internet. Technolgy has changed a lot since 1991.
Wrong again, Troll.
You think i’d pay 700k for that place? No thanks. To me, it’s even a stretch at 600k. Plus, we’ll be having kids soon, and we’d like to put them in a better school district. I’d rather have less house in a town with a better school.
Cliffside Park ranked 195th in the state of New Jersey. Half the Bergen towns you slam are rated higher. Hope the taxes in C Park aren’t through the roof.
http://www.njmonthly.com/topschools/hslist3.lasso?-MaxRecords=50&-SkipRecords=150&-SortField=rank&-SortOrder=ascending&county=&high_school=
Just trying to help a bagholder, that is all.
This just in:
“So where is your proof that the episode was filmed last year?”
Kirsten, the host, told me. She said that while she would like to use TLC’s Time Travel Machine™ to follow flippers around for months, and then air the results the next week, the execs at TLC only let the Trading Spaces cast use the device.
Corporate politics — there’s no avoiding it.
Forget that POS cape for $500,000. Buy a brand new house* for only $17,000!
*some assembly required
http://www.consumerist.com/consumer/out-of-the-ashes/lowes-makes-katrina-cottages-available-nationwide-280285.php
This was #349 or so awaiting moderation: Donald, I thought you watched all of those HGTV shows! You didn’t use any of that newly found knowledge to stage your house. Maybe you should call Designed to Sell & get Lisa LaPorta to do something about that hideous kitchen. Also, is that vinyl tile on the soon-to-be-in-a-ravine balcony? eeeww.
Also, the Property Ladder that was on last night was a 2007 episode, but the flipper was in Houston. Houston, I believe, is a bit behind bubble-wise.
451 awaiting moderation, too.
Robert,
Why don’t you just slash your price now by 20% instead of riding the market down? Why wait? Too bad you’re in Cliffside Park, also. Horrible schools and North Hudson park looks like a trash heap. I guess if you enjoy cultural diversity, it’s ok.
It sucks when you have to pay for a depreciating asset.
Troll, what’s the matter? No unwitty retort for Cliffside Park’s poor school rating? No spin?
http://c-n.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070805/NEWS/708050322
Highlights:
1. Homes along many of Central Jersey’s commuter rail lines have a better chance of being sold than residences in more rural or suburban areas…
2. In some towns, the market is actually improving over last year…
3. William O. Keleher Jr., chairman of Prudential New Jersey Properties: “Our offices in Summit, Westfield, New Providence and Short Hills are very strong. The Summit office is setting records, and that’s in the face of a flat or less than flat market in other parts of the state. In Middlesex County, our Metuchen office is also doing well because that’s another commuter market.”
4. Keleher added that the company is seeing some strength in Somerset County and Morris County communities that are on NJ Transit lines.
5. New Jersey also is in the midst of a long-term economic structural change that shows no sign of ending, Otteau said. The state is losing high-paying jobs, which are being replaced with low-paying jobs…
“Condos on the Gold Coast will be up 10%.”
THe Gold Coast has lost its glitter.
SAS
Donald,
As ususal, you do not knoiw what you are talking about. The house is priced at $7,000 less than what it was purchased for in 2004. $10k… that is all you are saving. ANd as fart as the original $708,000 asking price, that means nothing. Only SOLD prices count, not asking.
Pay attention Donald. They are ASKING less than what they paid.
Tell me you have a financial planner that looks after your assets because you are obviously clueless. You see, there is this thing called inflation… never mind. You either don’t want to know or can’t understand.
Let me sum it up for you. Living in your dream world I’ll make believe that you won’t have to pay commission or closing costs.
You would have to sell your house for approximately $880,000 to break even due to inflation.
Due to moderation issues, scroll to post 191 for more sales data.
Donald,
I have no desire to purchase your home at any price.
But you do realize you need to sell your home for $880,000 (EXCLUDING commission and closing costs) in order to break even.
All,
Chack out post 191 for more sales data.
reinvestor101 Says:
August 5th, 2007 at 12:11 am
You know what? I think you’re full of evil.
To tell you the truth, seeing a corpulent family jump out of their spinner encrusted hummer makes me involuntarily say “god we need a recession”.
Call me evil if you want.
bloodbath,
You’re right, if you wait 2 years you MAY save 50K but if you pay 40K in rent (which is certain expense) in those 2 years and interest rates increase to 8% have you really come out ahead?
“They can be patient, picky, and save while they rent.”
ADA #454, many here don’t pay rent, the bank where they keep their cash pays their rent, along with investment income.
“many here don’t pay rent, the bank where they keep their cash pays their rent, along with investment income.”
If many people here don’t pay rent, then they must work for some really good companies that pay their rent for them. Let’s do some math:
Average home price in NJ: $500,000*
Average down payment: 10%
4% interest a year on $50,000 = $20,000
$20,000 interest = $1,666 per month
We all know that you are not renting anything in NNJ for $1,600 a month. So most people here are paying rent, unless you plan on using a substantial down payment and have considerable savings.
* http://www.njba.org/housingData/avgPrices.asp
“THe Gold Coast has lost its glitter.”
The buyers on the Gold Coast tend to disagree. Many of them have no choice but to buy on the GC because they want to be near their finance jobs on Wall St. They can’t afford Manhattan and they do not want to move to the suburbs.
“Call me evil if you want.”
You are not evil. You are a Communist. So many people here make Communist statements, you guys better be praying that the feds are not reading this blog. You can be prosecuted for promoting Communism.
“Troll – what is your evidence that ‘many’ of the loans were converted to fixed rate loans? Where are you getting this from? Can you provide a link?”
Gap Between Fixed-Rate, Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Narrows
The gap between adjustable-rate loans and conventional fixed-rate mortgages narrowed again last week and has reached its slimmest margin in more than three years, according to the Orange County Register.
The continuing trend is diminishing demand for adjustable-rate mortgages, since fixed rates are nearly as attractive and offer considerably lower risk, mortgage brokers believe.
Some homeowners have already swapped their adjustable-rate loans for fixed-rate ones since July, triggering a mini-refinance boom once the Federal Reserve called off its campaign against inflation (at least temporarily) and interest rates began falling.
http://www.mtgfoundation.com/2006/10/gap-between-fixed-rate-adjustable-rate-mortgages-narrows.html
Lenders Try to Keep
Mortgage Boom Alive
By Ruth Simon
From The Wall Street Journal Online
Hoping to ride a new wave of profits as the mortgage boom winds down, lenders have changed course and are targeting borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages and encouraging them to refinance into fixed-rate loans.
Many lenders have been pushing adjustable-rate loans as a way for borrowers to keep their monthly payments down, stretch their budgets to afford a bigger house and use their home equity to get cash. Now, with short-term interest rates having moved up much faster than long-term rates, lenders are rediscovering the marketing appeal of fixed-rate mortgages. Currently, a 30-year-fixed rate loan carries a 6.27% rate, according to HSH Associates, while a one-year ARM, which adjusts annually, has a 5.39% rate.
Lenders such as SunTrust Banks Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and U.S. Bancorp are using statement inserts and direct-mail solicitations to encourage borrowers with adjustables to consider switching to a fixed-rate mortgage.
CitiMortgage, a unit of Citigroup Inc., sends borrowers a direct-mail solicitation 45 to 60 days before the rate on their ARM is scheduled to reset. It follows up with a phone call that lays out their options, says CitiMortgage president Bill Beckmann.
http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/mortgages/20060201-simon.html
Hey Bloodbath,
It’s such a pitty that all of the banks are working against you by getting the ARM boirrowers into fixed rate loans. There goes that “serious deal” you were planning on getting this winter. There are contless other articles similar to the ones I posted.
4% interest a year on $50,000 = $20,000
$20,000 interest = $1,666 per month
Is that the new math I’ve heard so much about??
KL
Robert,
Some of us rent for much less than 1666 per month, have a yard, and the heat is included.
Boooyaaa
KL
September 1st is going to be business as usual. I can’t wait until we get to 9/1 so that this way I can prove everyone here wrong. Maybe bad things will happen on September 1, 2009, but not next month. The only way the market will get really bad is if there is a terrorist attack. And if someone here knows of an upcoming terrorist act, please speak up now! This is a blog for renters so I would not be surprised if terrorists are hiding out here.
We’ve got ADA saying rates will be up to 8%, and then a link from the Troll saying they are all going down. Hmm.
Somebody should email the writer and ask if he can translate ‘some’ and ‘mini-refinance boom’ into hard numbers. Obviously the realtors he spoke with were feeding him something … what stats can he provide? We’re talking about $50 BILLION in loans resetting.
Can’t speak for all, but we are definitely saving money renting. Being in NY, i have no car payment, no car insurance, no NJ transit pass, ($76 a month for the subway card – fortunately, i can expense all cabs), no oil changes, no tire changes, no gasoline, etc, etc. Our rent is under $2200 for a two-bedroom and the wife’s company pays for her parking spot (plus she has a car allowance per month).
In terms of socking away into the ING house fund, I’d say we are able to save a bit over $1,000 per month.
“Some of us rent for much less than 1666 per month, have a yard, and the heat is included.”
Yes, I am well aware of that. When you are renting in mommy’s basement for $200 a month, it does not make any sense to buy. Plus, mommy cooks and cleans for you. When you buy, your on your own!
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/08/03/weekend-open-discussion-74#comment-113482
Robert,
LTV requirements have changed so much- on friday alone ( emails to mortgage brokers/bankers were fast, furious and abundant) refinancing will not be an option. If they were at 90%ltv when they bought they ain’t no mo!
KL
Robert,
Wrong again! Lanlord is no relation to us, but good tennants are treated like family/or royalty. Does not live here either, so not breathing down our necks, just breathing easy knowing responsible tennants are in his investment
KL
Bloodbath,
Where in NY are you renting? You can’t possibly be renting in Manhattan at those prices…
As afar as concrete numbers for the number of homeowners who re-financed to fix rate lonas, I am sure you can dfind them if you do the research. Lots of companies advertise all over the place for fixed rate loans for existing borrowers. Here is the common sales pitch:
Homeowners,
Are the monthly payments on your ARM increasing? Then call (Insert name of lender here) right now and apply for a fixed rate loan. Lower yoru monthly payments right now. Hurry, before rates go up again!
Have fed the troll, am done.
When I rented, I lived in large building owned by a publically traded rental company based in Virginia. They do not treat their renters like “family.” They treat them as cutomers and will raise the rent at every opportunity they get.
Finally!! Someone who sees many on this blog as I do! Booya Bob, Bloodbath or whatever he’s calling himself this week not only has communist tendencies, but I’ll go one further and say he may have terrorist tendencies as well.
I’ve read on numerous occasions his railing against homeowner and investors. Just like the islamic extremists rail against this country and all it stands for, Booya Bob is of the same mold on real estate. I’m sure you recall how Ayotallah Khomeni looked; with shadows around his eyes steaming with anger and hate; the picture of evil. I imagine Bob is like this when anyone mentions buying a house for personal or investment reasons. Look at the names he choose to describe himself: Bloodbath, Misery and etc. That tells you he’s a terrorist from jump street. Don’t let him know you purchased a house because he might find you and walk in with a suicide belt strapped on. Yes… he’s just that bad.
You’re new here, but I’ve been here a bit and know how some of these players operate. Just be careful who you talk with here.
Robert Says:
August 5th, 2007 at 6:43 pm
“Call me evil if you want.”
You are not evil. You are a Communist. So many people here make Communist statements, you guys better be praying that the feds are not reading this blog. You can be prosecuted for promoting Communism.
101 and Duck,
Match made in heaven.
Communist? Ha!
And i definitely am not Boo-ya Bob, but i do enjoy his posts. He’s my 2nd favorite poster after Rich in NJ (excluding Bednar, of course).
Anybody see the NYT article today on the ‘new millionaire?’ the one who works all the time and still doesn’t have as much as his neighbor? Ugh. nobody is happy these days. Greed. Yuck.
It was stated on this blog a while back that we will have reached fear and panic when the trolls become vindictive, angry and bitter. Folks, the denial stage has ended; fear and panic have arrived.
tick…. tick…. tick…. tick…. tick….
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070805/bear_stearns.html?.v=5
Eagle (408)-
Ducky’s lot is propped up by a bearing wall at the rear. It is carrying a massive earthen load, under intense pressure…and cracking.
Of course, our intrepid a$$hat has decided not to disclose any of this to potential buyers.
Troll (459)-
Well, that does it for me. I thought you were clever, manipulative…and entertaining, in a puerile sort of way. However, that post sadly proves that you are just plain blood stupid.
Back to ignoring you. You’re a fool.
Fed will dispoint renters here again next tuesday by cutting rate by quarter percent.
From various signals i got, the RE recovery is already on its way and Fed will add fuel shortly. The first RE boom of this century started soon after 9/11/2001 and
the second RE boom will start 9/1/2007 and last for 6 to 10 years.
somebody may question where my signals are. here are some of them:
1) builders start to raise price in some central jersey aree;
2) the multiple bids started to appear after 2 years of slow-down;
3) inventory have be reduced week after week.
…
Gary (476)-
Yep, the serious selling public has hit full panic mode. I have enough evidence- via upcoming office listings- to confirm for you that this isn’t personal, anecdotal evidence I’m relying on.
However, I have enough info to now also fully predict that this month- August- will feature a weak “dead cat rally”. Like the one in February, it will be short…and fade with a whimper. But, there are a decent number of buyers out there with a pre-Labor Day purchase in mind.
bi – you’re like 0-for your last five in predictions.
‘Various signals I got’ – care to elaborate? Facts might help.
Ah, who are we kidding … you’re just throwing crap up against the blog hoping something sticks, and trying to anger people. Won’t work here … i’ll gladly continue to rent and stack the chips for this winter (and the recession).
#479
I hope you are right otherwise a lot of people will need to look for a job soon.
bi (480)-
I thought Duck had a shred of sense…for a while.
You? It was never in doubt.
Still long Bear?
Clot,
I am an idiot? Your friend “Aaron” up above is praying for a recession!
Everyone here is an idiot. You really think we are going to have a recession in an election year? Give me a break! That is the last thing the Republicans want come November of 2008. If a recession is imminent, interest rates will be cut. Simple as that!
“It was stated on this blog a while back that we will have reached fear and panic when the trolls become vindictive, angry and bitter. Folks, the denial stage has ended; fear and panic have arrived.”
Yes, an anyonymous internet blog is a very scientific way of judging the real estate market. (sarcasm off)
484#, unfortunately i did not get in. but bear will bounce back monday.
Robert Says:
August 5th, 2007 at 6:41 pm
“THe Gold Coast has lost its glitter.”
The buyers on the Gold Coast tend to disagree. Many of them have no choice but to buy on the GC because they want to be near their finance jobs on Wall St. They can’t afford Manhattan and they do not want to move to the suburbs.
——————————————–
Robert… If them Wall Street boys & girls can’t afford Manhattan, then who can???
“Robert… If them Wall Street boys & girls can’t afford Manhattan, then who can???”
Foreigners with Euros and trust fund kids.
Bloodbath,
If what you say is true, you are a unique renter; the vast majority arent saving squat.
unrealtor #455,
many here are not indicative of most renters; most people are paying their rent and if they save x dollars by waiting and renting, then what they eventually save has to be reduced by what they paid in rent while they were waiting.
“many here don’t pay rent, the bank where they keep their cash pays their rent, along with investment income.”
I agree. There’s still money to be made out there. A friend and fellow investor just sold a piece of real estate he had in Brooklyn recently. Sold it for 2.0 million, bought it for 500k. Not bad for a day’s work.
It’s these sorts of stories that are not discussed here. People like Bloodbath prefer to talk about gloom and doom instead.
We just experienced a temporary pause in the long march upwards in terms of price levels.
bi Says:
August 5th, 2007 at 8:21 pm
Fed will dispoint renters here again next tuesday by cutting rate by quarter percent.
From various signals i got, the RE recovery is already on its way and Fed will add fuel shortly. The first RE boom of this century started soon after 9/11/2001 and
the second RE boom will start 9/1/2007 and last for 6 to 10 years.
Robert Says:
August 5th, 2007 at 6:53 pm
Lenders Try to Keep
Mortgage Boom Alive
The article is 1 1/2 years old.
Not only are your thoughts on the RE market dated but so are your facts.
You’re a liar. You and Booya Bob are one and the same. Your attitude leaves a lot to be desired.
Rich in NJ, while not quite as strident as you, has become radicalized due to your very negative influence.
There are ways of getting your point across without that taglines “Bloodbath” and “Misery”. You take a perverse joy in what you believe is the decline of this nation’s real estate markets. Guess what Bob? You’re going to be very dissappointed as a massive real estate decline ain’t happening.
Bloodbath in Winter 2007 Says:
August 5th, 2007 at 7:49 pm
Communist? Ha!
And i definitely am not Boo-ya Bob, but i do enjoy his posts. He’s my 2nd favorite poster after Rich in NJ (excluding Bednar, of course).
I’ve become radicalized?
Someone save me!
Good night.
For Sale Signs – When I have had open houses most of the buyers came from fliers, newspaper ads and my open house sign. Half the people on earth have a never made a single phone call let alone use the internet. Plus realtor sites often don’t use an address and there is no one single place on internet to catch all homes for sale. So I can just enter a street name and see all the realtors, FSBOs, banksales etc. on one block at one time. People who have a realtor take them around only see their exculsives and MLS. Back in 1992 when you had 25 for sales signs on one block at one time was quite a depressing site. Also remember the non home sellers, old timers on block don’t look at home prices so the only way they know prices are crashing is the for sales signs on every home. Kinda like the old “block busting” days back in “da day”
“…then what they eventually save has to be reduced by what they paid in rent while they were waiting.”
that would be true if people didn’t have to pay interest on their loans, property taxes, and maintenance. also, if they earned zero interest on their downpayment. – all money never recovered.
“…If what you say is true, you are a unique renter; the vast majority arent saving squat.”
if renters can’t save squat, then how can they manage a mortgage payment – or downpayment.
“We just experienced a temporary pause in the long march upwards in terms of price levels.”
Market maven 50.5 [494],
I get it, just a fibonacci retracement. The only one marching upward is the sheriff.
I guess the 7,000 jobs lost on Friday at ahm are just a temporary break. Too bad you didn’t pass your market wisdom along to Cioffi. He surely would have been able to calm his investors. The bad news first, your $5 million investment is worth zero. The good news, don’t worry it’s just temporary.
tcm
“that would be true if people didn’t have to pay interest on their loans, property taxes, and maintenance”
they are paying all that: just that they are paying for their landlord.
No one on your list, the only one to blame are the idiot buyers who bought 650k POS Splits that they could have rented for 2k a month. Stupid is as Stupid Does. Well if they don’t have a place to live no more maybe the sub prime fools won’t be able to breed. Like the guy in the Jon Stewart show said when asked why did he take out a loan like that if he knew it was bad, the answer was I wasn’t going to pay it back anyhow.
Hi all,
As this housing collapse unravels, everyone will start pointing fingers. In your opinion, rank, in order, who you believe is the most responsible for this bubble.
Alan Greenspan
Wall Street
Mortgage Lenders & Brokers
Home buyers & speculators
Realtors
Appraisers
Home builders
Banks
Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae
Media
Let’s hear it!
John [502],
Everybody is entitled to be stupid. However, you’re in deep s*it when so many abuse the privledge.
did you see Barron’s frightening piece on ACA Capital (NYSE: ACA). The journal’s editorial staff spent as much time drumming up the scariest title possible, as they did editing the entire piece, labeling it “Subprime’s Ultimate Time Bomb.” That was quite pessimistic fellows.
ACA Capital Holdings’ (ACA) shares lost almost 2/3 of their value, dropping from $15 in mid-June to just over $5 on July 24, before rallying back to a current $7. Barron’s says investors’ relief may be short lived. Its $326 million capital base and $61 billion loan exposure equate to 180-to-1 leverage. Critics say Wall Street lenders like Bear Stearns (BSC), Merrill Lynch (MER), Lehman Brothers (LEH) and Citigroup (C) have used the company to move billions of dollars in risky, volatile loans off their books. $9.3 billion of its exposure is to the top 60% of mezzanine CDOs, meaning it shouldn’t take a hit until the bottom 40% collapses. However, all it takes to wipe out the lower level are cumulative losses of 7% — this after Standard & Poors recently forecast a 11-14% hit. ACA also has another $5 billion exposed to ‘high-grade’ subprime CDOs, which could be 2/3 wiped out by a 10% cumulative loss. It also insures $444 million in ‘CDO-squared pools,’ which could be destroyed by as little as a 4.5% loss in the collateral. Including shareholder net worth, the company says it has claims-paying resources of over $1 billion. Should subprime woes prove systemic, Barron’s says, losses could be $3 to $5 billion.
Newsflash renters: You are paying a mortaage, property taxes, and maintenance. It is all factored into your rent.
And with the high rents in northern NJ, I really don’t see how you can save a lot of money, unless you rent a really small apartment or in a bad neighborhood. I was just looking at some listings today and I saw plenty of 3 bedrooms for $3,800 + a month!
501#, nobody to blame since there is no bubble at first place, at least here in tri-state area. in my area, every home sold this year i know is within 5% of 2005 price (plus or minus)
Geesh. There are some testy, testy posters around this weekend.
The front page of the print edition of the Sunday paper in Orange County had “housing bust” all over it today. Sunday.
http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070805/NEWS/708050346
Pate de Foie de Canard
Foie Gras de Oie
Time Bomb
Liverwurst
Hot Dogs
Weisswurst
The only way renting is a good idea is if your company is paying your rent. If you are living for free in a fancy corporate apartment, then don’t buy! I was talking to someone a few weeks ago who works for the Sweedish Counsulate in Manhattan. In addition to her salary, she gets $6,000 a month for housing. I doubt anyone here has it this good.
I am so glad I started posting on this site. Before I posted and was just a lurker, there was only a one side argument on this blog. There were no RE supporters, excpet for the occassional post from Richard. It was nothing but gloom and doom. Ever since my arrival, the number of pro RE posters has skyrocketed. I hope we attract more pro RE people. I would not be surprised if the pro RE posters outnumber the gloom and doomers by the end of the year.
Clot, somehow I picture you with your eyes squeezed tightly shut and your hands pressed against your ears as you meditate your meat mantra.
“Please, Oh Maharishi Mahesh Yogi, teach me the value of non-response. Wurst, Sausage, Head Cheese…..”
How come nobody here has put in any lowball offers lately? Did you guys give up on that?
“4% interest a year on $50,000”
Heh, funny. $50K. This isn’t a college blog.
4% interest?
It’s no wonder you bought a shoebox for $750K.
512#,
my neigbor usually walks with his dog hanging a plastic shoping bag. this weekend i was surprised he was hanging a few pages of 8’x14′ paper instead. he asked and said he got it from an agent called clotpoll and would use it for convenience. BTW, he is also selling his house.
512#,
my neighbor usually walks with his dog hanging a plastic shoping bag. this weekend i was surprised he was hanging a few pages of 8’x14′ paper instead. he asked and said he got it from an agent called clotpoll and would use it for convenience. BTW, he is also selling his house.
Gary #476, Bear isn’t alone, just out front:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BSC&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=LEH,GS
# Robert Says:
August 5th, 2007 at 8:32 pm
Clot,
I am an idiot? Your friend “Aaron” up above is praying for a recession!
I really am honored Robert.
Remember when you were a kid and you discovered that if you were sick to your stomach, and tried to hold it just got more and more painful? I assume that as an adult you would be smart enough to head to the bowl and let it out.
Our economy has had a sick tummy for a long time now. How long is it supposed to hold back?
516#, warren buffet rescued soloman in early 90’s. maybe someone with deep pocket is considering bear now.
Clot and Scribe,
Thanks for clarification on “deathtrap” issue. As a potential home-buyer, is there a way I would be able to spot something like that (or similarly potential serious problems)? Would this be revealed in an inspection?
Thanks,
Eagle
This just in:
Why would anyone bother put in any lowballs offers now?
Summer = prime buying time
Fall/winter = nobody buys, so prices drop
If you guys think I’m full of doom and gloom, don’t bother open a real estate/business section of a newspaper for the next 18 months.
#520
break out the viola. I can hear the pity from the WSJ weeping through the first couple of paragraphs.
For me, there’ll be no pity, no mercy….let the axes begin to fall..the chickidees are home, and they’re beginning to roost.
Mr. Darwin I presume, pleased to meet you.
Eagle,
I sure hope so :)
Realize – “Robert” is a real estate agent who is spoofing us. The stories get wilder and wilder …
How come no one has called me a Communist/terrorist? What am I, chopped liver?
Scribe,
You haven’t been radicalized enough by the negative influences at this site.
But don’t worry, it’ll happen.
OYE!
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