From the Wall Street Journal:
Housing Market to Weaken Even Further
As Mortgage Industry Takes Cure
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
August 6, 2007; Page A2
After a binge of lax lending in recent years, the U.S. home-mortgage industry is finally taking the cure, swearing off high-risk loans to people with lousy credit records. The bad news is that this medicine is creating a vicious circle that will make the housing market even weaker, at least in the near term.
As regulators and jittery investors force them to adopt more and more conservative lending standards, lenders are cutting more people out of the housing market. In what would strike most people outside the industry as a return to common sense, lenders now are shunning would-be borrowers who can’t make a down payment, prove that they have a reliable income and show a record of reasonably regular bill-paying. They also are turning down refinancing requests from many people trapped by adjustable-rate loans that are proving too expensive after the initial feel-good period of low payments.
…
“This week is going to be a nightmare,” says Melissa Cohn, chief executive of Manhattan Mortgage in New York. Lenders are scaling back so fast that it isn’t clear which loans are available or on what terms, and rates are jumping even on large loans, known as jumbos, for prime borrowers.These stricter lending standards reduce demand for homes and nudge some people who can’t refinance toward foreclosure. Higher foreclosures add to a glut of homes on the market in most of the country. And, completing the vicious circle, a weaker housing market comes back to bite the lenders by wiping out owners’ equity in their homes and increasing the risk of even more foreclosures down the road.
“The market is in a panic,” says Larry Goldstone, president of Thornburg Mortgage Inc., a lender in Santa Fe, N.M. He says he thinks the mortgage-bond market, which supplies most of the money for home mortgages, will calm down within a few months, but the housing market may need at least another year or two to heal.
Earlier this year, lenders had to cut back on subprime mortgages, those for people with the weakest credit records, because a surge in defaults made investors unwilling to buy so many of those loans. In the past few weeks, stung by losses on mortgage securities at some big funds and clampdowns by rating agencies, investors have grown much more nervous. For good reason: A recent Merrill Lynch report estimates that they face $120 billion to $170 billion of default-related losses on U.S. home mortgages currently outstanding. So investors now are shying away from many more types of mortgages, including those known as Alt-A, a category between prime and subprime.
By late last week, panic among mortgage lenders and investors was starting to feed on itself. One midsize lender, American Home Mortgage Investment Corp., shut down its lending operations after creditors cut off funding; the chief executive of another big lender declared that the mortgage-securities market was “not functioning;” and Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation’s biggest home lender by loan volume, felt compelled to issue a statement Thursday saying it had plenty of cash on hand. Despite that reassurance, Countrywide’s share price dropped 6.6% Friday. Some lenders temporarily stopped taking loan applications Friday because they were unsure about their ability to sell mortgages to investors.
…
Because loan standards are now much tougher, at least 10% to 15% of the people who could have qualified for a home-purchase loan last year can’t do so now, says Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs. Meanwhile, many of the people who would still qualify for a loan don’t want to buy a house now because they think prices will fall further. So the housing market is likely to remain weak for at least another couple of years, Mr. Hatzius figures.
…
The U.S. housing boom over the past decade turned about five million renters into homeowners, says William Wheaton, a professor of economics and real estate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. But many of the loans that made that possible have proved unsustainable. Dr. Wheaton expects about two-thirds of those people to go back to renting. Eventually, he says, rents will rise, and more people will see owning as a better alternative, helping to revive the housing market, perhaps in 2009 or 2010.
From the WSJ:
‘Great Unwind’ May Be Here
As Problems Spread
To Broad Bond Market,
Top Brokers Could Suffer
By RANDALL SMITH and SERENA NG
August 6, 2007; Page C1
The problems have been gathering for months, beginning with subprime loans and spreading outward. Now Wall Street firms face the risk of a broad bond-market unwind, leaving vulnerable five years of record earnings and stock run-ups.
Investors are worrying about more than just reduced earnings growth. It’s the overall uncertainty, they say: The unintended risks of “bridge” loans stuck on balance sheets or even how to value a new set of exotic securities that can’t find buyers. This could weigh on Wall Street stocks — be it Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. or Goldman Sachs Group Inc. — for months to come.
…
The worries stretch across a number of areas. In the past few weeks, trading has fallen off to a trickle in some asset-backed bonds, issued at double-A or triple-A ratings. With no bidders lining up, valuations and ratings have been left uncertain. Investors are also finding it harder to trade some risky high-yield, or “junk,” bonds and leveraged loans for borrowers with high debt levels.
The pullback in liquidity has been made worse by the usually slow summer-vacation season. That has hurt the chances Wall Street securities firms can offload their bridge-financing commitments for pending private-equity deals, which have soared this year.
…
“A lot of investors are realizing that the same very loose lending standards that were applied to homeowners have also been applied to corporate” bonds as well, says Albert Edwards, the global strategist at the Dresdner Kleinwort unit of Allianz SE who popularized the term “the great unwind” and believes such an unwind has been under way since early this year.
From the Record:
http://www.northjersey.com/page.php?qstr=eXJpcnk3ZjczN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXk3NDImZmdiZWw3Zjd2cWVlRUV5eTcxNzczOTQmeXJpcnk3ZjcxN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXkyMg==
A British science materials conglomerate says it will soon leave Hudson County for Mexico.
Cookson Group PLC said in a regulatory filing Thursday that it will close its Jersey City manufacturing plant and move production of solder wire to Monterrey, Mexico, and Altoona, Pa., by the end of the third quarter.
…
“When completed, headcount in the U.S. will be reduced by 120 with 90 new jobs created in Mexico,” the filing said. It said the restructuring would save Cookson about $4 million a year. The company told the state it will lay off 75 in Jersey City.
Am I the only one that is credit shake up and tightening of standards is actually a GOOD THING? In the long run that is….
The only ones whom are in a panic are the ones who are just finally realizing that the party is over, so they are going to bitch and moan the whole time.
SAS
opps..
“Am I the only one that thinks this credit…”
sas
btw–
The layoffs are coming to Wall St.
The questions will be, just how many people will get the ax?
SAS
AP
Bear Stearns Co-President, Co-COO Quits
By Joseph Altman, AP Business Writer
Bear Stearns Co-President, Co-COO Warren Spector Resigns in Wake of Hedge Fund Trouble
NEW YORK (AP) — Bear Stearns Cos. said Sunday that co-President and co-Chief Operating Officer Warren Spector has resigned following the meltdown of two hedge funds that invested in risky mortgage-backed securities.
The funds filed for bankruptcy protection Tuesday, two weeks after the company told investors that one with assets of about $638 million was essentially worthless, and another worth about $925 million before taking on losses in March had lost more than 90 percent of its value.
The news sent the Wall Street brokerage’s shares tumbling to their lowest price since November 2005. The shares, which have lost nearly one-third of their value this year, fell $7.28, or 6.3 percent, to close Friday at $108.35.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070805/bear_stearns.html?.v=5
AP
Wall Street Awaits Fed Rate Decision
Sunday August 5, 8:29 pm ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer
Smarting From Friday’s Losses, Wall Street Awaits Rate Decision From Federal Reserve Officials
NEW YORK (AP) — With two weeks of volatility behind it, Wall Street faces the prospect of more turbulence — unless the Federal Reserve comes to the rescue.
Waxing and waning worries about a shrinking availability of credit have sent stocks gyrating, with the Dow Jones industrials swinging by triple digits four straight days last week.
But even if the market gets a lift from the Fed, there’s a good chance it will be short-lived — in its current state of mind, Wall Street is shrugging off good news and choosing to sell off on every mention of words like credit, subprime, mortgage and default. Even in calmer times, the market has been able to hold on to soothing remarks from the Fed for only a short period of time — believing, perhaps, that the central bankers are as fickle as Wall Street itself.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070805/wall_street_week_ahead.html?.v=9
Reuters
Credit, growth fears batter stocks, hit dollar
Monday August 6, 4:28 am ET
By Jeremy Gaunt, European Investment Correspondent
LONDON (Reuters) – Fears of a global credit squeeze and worries about U.S. economic strength swept across financial markets on Monday, shaking up stocks, knocking the dollar to a 15-year low and straining popular currency trades.
Markets are being shaken by the prospect that the borrowing that drives the financial system will either become prohibitively expensive or dry up completely as a result of risk repricing.
This began with difficulties and losses in the U.S. subprime — or risky — mortgage business but has spread to other areas, including the mergers and acquisitions that have been a main driver of stocks markets. Several companies have delayed or withdrawn planned offerings of shares, bonds or loans.
There are also concerns about the stability of the financial sector.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070806/markets_global.html?.v=7
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aA5RQDnHi2SY&refer=home
“One of the mysteries of the current business cycle has been how well employment has held up relative to economic growth. Real gross domestic product growth slowed to 1.8 percent in the year ended June, yet the unemployment rate refused to budge. It’s been stuck in a 4.4 percent to 4.6 percent range for almost a year, something that creates inflation angst at the Federal Reserve because of the “high level of resource utilization.” (Central bankers never say that too many people are working; it’s politically incorrect, and maybe it sounds as silly to them as it does to me.)
Meanwhile, consumer spending has decelerated…
Consumers cutting back on their spending send a powerful message to business. It also sends a subtler message to the Federal Reserve.
When the supply of credit from households increases” — when the consumer saves more — “the structure of interest rates falls,” Kasriel says. “The short rate can’t go down” because the Fed props it up. “
Interesting take here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/06/business/06home.html?hp
Mortgage Maze May Increase Foreclosures
In 2003, Dianne Brimmage refinanced the mortgage on her home in Alton, Ill., to consolidate her car and medical bills. Now, struggling with a much higher interest rate and in foreclosure, she wants to modify the terms of the loan.
Lenders have often agreed to such steps in the past because it was in everyone’s interest to avoid foreclosure costs and possibly greater losses. But that was back when local banks held the loans and the bankers knew the homeowners, as well as the value of the properties.
Ms. Brimmage got her loan through a mortgage broker, just the first link in a financial merry-go-round. The mortgage itself was pooled with others and sold to investors — insurance companies, mutual funds and pension funds. A different company processes her loan payments. Yet another company represents the investors as the trustee.
She has gotten nowhere with any of the parties, despite her lawyer’s belief that fraud was involved in the mortgage. Like many other Americans, Ms. Brimmage is a homeowner stuck in foreclosure limbo, at risk of losing the home she has lived in since 1998.
As the housing market weakens and interest rates on adjustable mortgages rise, more and more borrowers are falling behind. Almost 14 percent of subprime borrowers were delinquent in the first quarter of 2007. Investors, fearful that these problems will hurt the overall economy, have retreated from the stock and bond markets, creating major sell-offs.
And the very innovation that made mortgages so easily available — an assembly line process known on Wall Street as securitization — is creating an obstacle for troubled borrowers. As they try to restructure their loans, they are often thwarted, lawyers say, by strict protections put in place for investors who bought the mortgage pools.
This impasse could exacerbate the housing slump, pushing more homeowners into foreclosure. That would lead to a bigger glut of properties for sale, depressing home prices further.
sas Says:
Am I the only one that is credit shake up and tightening of standards is actually a GOOD THING?
I’m with you SAS. I began working in the subprime arena just last October and was utterly shocked when I saw that they were doing reduced doc for subprime borrowers. This is for a ‘conservative’ firm too. So let me get this straight, this guy has lousy credit and you’re going to take his income on faith and thing you’re doing a good loan?
In the long run, things always eventually return to where they should be.
think you’re doing a good loan?
Went for a drive last night, ended up in Garfield, thought I was in Passaic. I had no idea Garfield was that bad..I quickly turned around.
Chill out with the doom and gloom. Like I said yesterday I watched an hour of Fox Business Sunday yesterday, this is the best economy this country has ever had, go buy a house, buy some stocks, buy buy buy!
Ps. I wonder how long it takes Rupert to start that sort of spin with the WSJ?
“They also are turning down refinancing requests from many people trapped”
50.5,
You called me unpatriotic for saying the herd will be trapped. Go throw your S8it against the wall of Dow Jones. See how much of it sticks.
SAS,
Of course the credit tightening is a good thing. We have experienced the biggest credit bubble in history. Asset prices from RE, to stocks to yachts, to art were on steriods. The coming credit crunch will be painful. It is long overdo. Ten years of living off asset appreciation is over. Can you imagine consumption will be required to be financed by savings. Another revolutionary idea, you’ll have to come up with a dp to buy RE. No more $mil mortgages to the unemployes. There is a earth shaking attitude/consumption adjustment on the horizon. Better save as much as possible, you will need to have bullets available when you are ready to fire.
By the way, is Chuck Prince still doing the credit dance? Why do I picture the Great Adventure commercial?
that’s unemployed
Here’s my prediction;
The economy and housing will slow down prompting the Fed to lower rates.
Due to tightened credit restrictions housing prices will continue to deteriorate, even as rates go down.
Those of us with documentable income, clean credit, and a decent down payment will be able to get a better price on a house and get a low rate on the mortgage to boot.
Patience comes to those who wait….
Four out of 10 first-time buyers used no-down-payment mortgages in 2005 and 2006, according to surveys by the National Association of Realtors. But some lenders are now scrapping such loans completely. Others are pickier about who gets them. All figure that the more cash borrowers put down, the less likely they are to default.
“The U.S. housing boom over the past decade turned about five million renters into homeowners, says William Wheaton, a professor of economics and real estate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. But many of the loans that made that possible have proved unsustainable.”
Wow… ain’t that the truth!
Over the years, I have lost tenants who have bought homes. On occasion, I would get a call or email from them asking advice (landlording issues, insurance issues, etc). I know of two former tenants that were barely hanging on. They had to take on roommates, putting them in the same living situation as they were when they were renting.
Between the taxes, utilities, insurance, car payments, and other expenses, they were spending 100% of their income.
Two former tenants have already become renters again.
pick up WSJ today numerous articles on the subprime and Housing collaspe.
“It’s impossible to conclude that it’s not going to be a tougher time for Wall Street,” said Steven Rattner, co-founder of New York-based buyout firm Quadrangle Group and former vice chairman of Lazard Freres & Co. “There’s going to be an impact on revenues and profits.”
“There’s indigestion, as investors aren’t buying the paper to the extent that they were buying it before, and banks will be nervous about committing to any new significant underwritings of any size,” said Daniel Stillit, a London-based analyst at UBS AG. “There’s a significant risk of the LBO driver coming to a grinding halt.”
“The high-yield market did a hop, skip and a jump and said, `We’re not taking that stuff on those terms,”’ said Frederick Joseph, managing director of New York-based Morgan Joseph & Co. and the former chief executive officer of Drexel Burnham Lambert Inc. “The brokerage firms are getting stuck with some paper and it’s going to take a while for it to get digested.”
“As long as the conveyor belt is jammed, new fee revenues won’t be forthcoming.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a7Xu2dTqmHd0&refer=home
#19: I really don’t feel sorry though. You have to give up some convienences if you want to live without roommates. Drive an older car, go to the library for internet, sweat or freeze a little and turn the thermostat down in the winter and up in the summer. No one seems to want to give up the things they “need”
#17 X: “to get a better price on a house>” A much better price.
“The market for virtually any loans with the slightest element of risk has effectively disappeared,” John Bollman, an executive vice president at Cleveland-based National City Mortgage, wrote to his employees.
Mortgage crisis: Home loans are harder to get
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2007-08-05-mortgage-lenders_N.htm
Soup Nazi (Seinfeld),
No debt for you.
With oil moving to my target $40+ set 1 week ago, the inflation pressure will be reduced. we are in goldilock enconomy…
CNN Money: Oil tumbles on economic jitters
http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/06/markets/bc.markets.oil.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007080605
Soup Nazi (Seinfeld),
No debt for you.
Good one. Classic. Ha Ha Ha !!!
bi,
You da man. Hate to rain on your parade. However, goldilocks has been put to bed.
We actually went to a few open houses this weekend in Monmouth County – primarily for the entertainment value.
We looked at one place that has been re-listed 3 times (older colonial, 4.5 br, 3 ba, 1.2 acre, inground pool, taxes = 10k, above average condition), the OLP started around 850,000 about 1 year ago and is down to 749,000. The realtor told us that the 749,000 was very negotiable, and that the seller was looking to move as fast as possible. The current owner worked in the city and used the nearby comuter ferry, but had recently re-married and bought a new place.
I told the realtor (somewhat sarcastically) that we are just waiting for the whole thing (real estate market)to come crashing down and then we will move to purchase, she laughed and commented that many qualififed buyers are following a similar strategy. The realtor was really straight forward and direct, saying that she doesn’t beleive the property would move until the price at least dips below 700k and in line with other similar properties in the area.
However, the owner “worked really hard” to update the property and expects to make a nice profit. That part cracked me up. The current owner bought the place in 1995 for 240K according to the tax record search. The owner wasn’t distressed, just a bit greedy.
We left around 2:00 pm, only 3 other people had signed the book.
We had essentially a simialr experince at a few other places. The realtors were certainly a little more sober and less cocky than I recall when we were looking last year.
If you have cash/good credit and patience, things should get interesting come fall/winter. I see no need to rush into buying anything now as prices are going to come down. Trying to find the bottom may be tough, but value opporotunities should start apprearing soon.
bi Says:
August 6th, 2007 at 9:36 am
With oil moving to my target $40+ set 1 week ago, the inflation pressure will be reduced. we are in goldilock enconomy.
———————————————-
You are on crack. Oil will never get back to the 40s. High 50’s…maybe? Goldilocks my butt. This equity market is going to crash just like it did under Hoover. Put down your Mother Goose fairy tale books and pick up a history book and read about what caused the ‘Great Depression.’
http://www.gusmorino.com/pag3/greatdepression/
It seems like 8 years of Bush leadership has set us up for the great fall.
I’m not saying we are looking at a depression, but a major recession is probably in the cards. There are just too many negatives facing our economy right now.
For example, negative savings rate, massive federal debt, expensive oil, tightening credit, failing infrastructure, increasing unemployment, ‘real’ wages decreasing, greater separation between the haves and have nots.
I have slowly been transitioning into a mostly cash position with a 30% international exposure. In this bloggers opinion, “the gig is up!”
I wonder what even prime 20% down loans written the last few years are worth. Is 4.5% interest enough to cover inflation, servicing etc.
Why would an investor hold these notes?
29#,
I think President Bush will be one of the greatest presidents in history. He should liberate Iran in final year of his presidency and solve mideast problem completely.
>It seems like 8 years of Bush leadership has set us up for the great fall.
Aaron #30,
My dad built his house in 1971 and financed through a small town savings and loan. He told me that by the early 80’s they made a deal that for every dollar he put toward principal (beyond the required payment), they would give credit as though he paid $1.10. So they were practically begging people to pay them off early.
This was a very conservative old-time savings and loan. I believe at that time they had a policy of not selling the mortgages they made.
BI (31)
You have just convinced me that your pipe runneth over.
———————————————-
This speculation and the resulting stock market crashes acted as a trigger to the already unstable U.S. economy. Due to the maldistribution of wealth, the economy of the 1920’s was one very much dependent upon confidence. The market crashes undermined this confidence. The rich stopped spending on luxury items, and slowed investments. The middle-class and poor stopped buying things with installment credit for fear of loosing their jobs, and not being able to pay the interest. As a result industrial production fell by more than 9% between the market crashes in October and December 192948. As a result jobs were lost, and soon people starting defaulting on their interest payment. Radios and cars bought with installment credit had to be returned. All of the sudden warehouses were piling up with inventory. The thriving industries that had been connected with the automobile and radio industries started falling apart. Without a car people did not need fuel or tires; without a radio people had less need for electricity. On the international scene, the rich had practically stopped lending money to foreign countries. With such tremendous profits to be made in the stock market nobody wanted to make low interest loans. To protect the nation’s businesses the U.S. imposed higher trade barriers (Hawley-Smoot Tariff of 1930). Foreigners stopped buying American products. More jobs were lost, more stores were closed, more banks went under, and more factories closed. Unemployment grew to five million in 1930, and up to thirteen million in 193249. The country spiraled quickly into catastrophe. The Great Depression had begun.
Leave George Bush alone, the idiots who bought houses they can’t afford with nothing down may lose “their” house. Big deal it wasn’t there house to begin with, that is the concept of nothing down.
One last thing. When Bernanke refuses to bail out the market tomorrow, it may be the last straw in the camel’s back.
It’s not every year that a financial powerhouse like Bear Stearns loses half of it’s market cap.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070806/bearstearns_stock.html?.v=3
33#, stu, it is interesting and sad to read history of great depression. i don’t believe in the slightest bit that part of history will repeat in our lifetime. if you truly believe this will happen, you should think about my ideas post last week: buy gold and short oil
We left George Bush alone for 8 years and he has almost destroyed this great nation for all but the top 1%. But have no fear. Your day will come too. Keep ignoring the truth just like the truth that Bush and his cronies ignored to start the war with Iraq. It’s the same truth that the subprime borrowers ignore when purchasing homes that they knew they couldn’t afford with no money down. Keep on grinning while ignoring reality. That is the MO of the Republican party and was the MO of the Roman Senate. We’ll see which dynasty lasted longer in the end.
I just hope Bush’s terrible leadership for the last eight years has set it up for Hilary Clinton to completely fail.
She’s going to be walking into a hornet’s nest, that’s for sure.
From the polls, it looks like Rudy for Clinton … which should be fun.
bi,
You are hopelessly lost economically. The ‘real’ value of gold does not increase when your currency continues to weaken. You can thank your greatest president for that as well. For example…1 ounce of gold is worth $600 today. Sell it for $600 tomorrow and your $1 is worth less. How are you going to benefit from this. Enlighten me. Gold as an inflation hedge only works if the value of your currency is strengthening. Considering the prospects of our economy in the near future, I wouldn’t bank on gold.
Shorting oil with the potential of additional conflict in the Middle East is awfully risky as well. It’s been 6 years since the 9/11 attack. Al Queda is stronger now than it was then. Who do we thank for this?
Want some investment advice? Don’t invest!
This is a bunch of bullspit. Clinton along with most of the far left as exhibited on this blog is responsible for the intention attempt at disrupting the real estate market. You people always want to predict the economically remote circumstances like depressions. Tell me, when was the last time this country was in a depression? It’s been a little while and it’s not going to happen now notwithstanding your doom and gloom prognostications.
This bullspit has been going on since 2000. First all you doom and gloomers were predicting a depression because stock prices stalled. Did that happen? No. As a matter of fact the DJIA reached a record high this year before pulling back here recently. Now, it’s real estate that will kill the economy. Guess what, that ain’t gonna happen either.
What we have here is a bunch of unpatriotic pessimists that are cheerleading for an economic fall for their own damn country. Why? Because they foolishly didn’t buy a house and missed out on gains. Rather than learn from that error, we have someone whose proposing to invest in low yielding cash to “protect himself”. I suppose you’ll be right one day; depressions occur once every 100 years or so.
It seems like 8 years of Bush leadership has set us up for the great fall.
I’m not saying we are looking at a depression, but a major recession is probably in the cards. There are just too many negatives facing our economy right now.
For example, negative savings rate, massive federal debt, expensive oil, tightening credit, failing infrastructure, increasing unemployment, ‘real’ wages decreasing, greater separation between the haves and have nots.
I have slowly been transitioning into a mostly cash position with a 30% international exposure. In this bloggers opinion, “the gig is up!”
By the way, the US indeces have lost between 6 and 8 percent since July 19th. Another two weeks of this and we are in a major correction.
It seems like Goldilocks likes her porridge quite cool.
Re: I admit Bush is a bit of an idiot, but he intherited al quida and 9/11 from Clinton’s eight years of short changing the military.
Also the top 1% today, may or may not be the top 1% from the Clinton days. I was on Wall Street making peanuts pre Bush and most of my friends salaries went from solid middle class to well off in his years in office. I think the middle class in their 40’s like to think all the well off people in their 40’s had rich dads or went ivy league. The truth is their is a lot of us who benefited under Bushes tax cuts and pro market stance and has moved up the food chain.
Stu Says:
August 6th, 2007 at 10:21 am
We left George Bush alone for 8 years and he has almost destroyed this great nation for all but the top 1%. But have no fear
39#, stu,
the market is not as static as you described. usually, gold strengthens as dollar got weaker. we agree the middle east is a problem and i think solving problems in iraq is the first step, iran is second.
I am not cheerleading for a recession or depression. My 401K totals, which now make up over 30% of my wealth, will take a significant hit if this comes true. I’m an economist and I’m simply reading the tea leaves. I bought a house in September of 2004 and stand to lose a bit there too, but only if I sell of course. Thank god I got a great deal since I nearly pegged the top of the RE market
I plan to buy another home in a year or two.
Now why would I advocate for a market crash?
I have done quite well under Bush. I’m not in that top 1%, but definitely in with the top 2%. But I’m not a greedy dolt like your average Republican. And keep rooting for Rudy. That guy is actually more liberal than Hillary.
“What we have here is a bunch of unpatriotic pessimists that are cheerleading for an economic fall for their own damn country. Why? Because they foolishly didn’t buy a house and missed out on gains.”
50.5 [40],
Wrong again. I owned for 20 years. Never in my wildest dreams would I anticipate selling and renting. I decided towards the end of the game to stand up and sing, take me out to the ballgame, after that God Bless America. When the closer came in, they were playing New York, New York, just as I signed the closing documents. Oh, by the way; God Bless America.
I didn’t create this mess. Just decided I did not want to be a part of it, at this time. Go wave the flag while you check your mail for your rate/tax hike.
i think solving problems in iraq is the first step, iran is second.
———————————————-
Iraq WAS NOT our problem to solve. But NOW it is.
Mark my words, we will withdraw and the UN is not going to come in and clean up after our earlier blunders.
To many in the Eastern world (and some in the west) Bush will be scene as a genocidal leader. It’s embarrassing actually.
Now back to RE!
it is too strong word to your president if you are a U.S. citizen. i am wondering if you also think so.
> To many in the Eastern world (and some in the west) Bush will be scene as a genocidal leader. It’s embarrassing actually.
Someone help me out here. What the fr1g is a rent-controlled apartment? Does that mean my rent cannot go up more than a certain % each year, irrespective of property taxes or energy prices increasing more than 10% a year?
Our rent was increased 1% last year. If property taxes and heating/gas escalate say 10-11% each year in the next 3-4 years, would that throw the rent-control clause for my town out of the window, since obviously the landlords will be footing the bill if my rent continues to increase 1-3% a year.
I am just trying to figure out if rent-controlled is all it’s cracked up to be. If rent increases are just 1-3% while property taxes continue to escalate out of control, it just be another reason to wait this bust a little longer.
Bi,
Is sociopath too harsh of word for our president? How about, Narcissistic personality disorder?
KL
SAS #3
I’m with you all the way. No pain no gain.
Furthermore, spare me the whining, begging, and bitching from the sons and daughters of Big Daddy who have been immensely spoiled over the last several years, and are looking for him to bail them out one more time.
Big Daddy, don’t fall for it, it’s time for a little tough love.
50#, i feel somebody on this board still think al gore should be his/her president…
Right after a certain date in September everyone was on board with what the president wanted to…oh the new I-Phone is out, and did you hear what happened on American Idol? No blood for oil, etc.
#45 BC Bob
Does it seem like some of the vitriolic responses from this week fit here? The mind set seems to be somewhere between 2 and 4…
The five stages of grief:
1-Denial-“this can’t be happening to me”
2-Anger-“why me?”, blaming others
3-Bargaining-bargaining often takes place before the loss. Begging, wishing, praying for them to come back.
4-Depression-frustration, bitterness
5-Acceptance-there is a difference between resignation and acceptance. You have to accept the loss, not just try to bear it quietly.
Clot (when you show up this morning)
I saw yesterday that you predicted a gentle dead cat bounce this August.
Reading this statement from the above article:
“This week is going to be a nightmare,” says Melissa Cohn, chief executive of Manhattan Mortgage in New York. Lenders are scaling back so fast that it isn’t clear which loans are available or on what terms, and rates are jumping even on large loans, known as jumbos, for prime borrowers.”
Did you factor these kind of rate changes in?
dreamtheaterr Says:
August 6th, 2007 at 11:07 am
Someone help me out here. What the fr1g is a rent-controlled apartment?
Yan: I’m no expert…but here is my crack at it.
Rent Control: govt tells landlord you can charge X for apartment rent based on 1, 2 & 3. You have to qualify to rent an apartment, and once you are in, you need to continue to qualify over time.
Rent Stabilization: govt tells landlord that you can rent apartment for market once. In the future your rent increases are capped based on some index X with caveats.
You sound as if you have a rent stabilized apartment.
Dream:
Some towns do have a cap on rent increases, my town limits it to 3% a year. Many people are hesitant to trade up out of smaller rentals because their rents are currently below market levels.
1% sounds great, it definitely provides stability. If you live where I think you live (near me) those complexes are paid off already, so even though your landlord is eating the property tax increases, the company is still making plenty of money.
Not really actually. We’ve lost +3000 of our own citizens not to mention countless Iraqis to a war that was sold to the American people through a lie. There is the big lie, that we were attacked by Iraq on 9/11. Then there were the smaller lies, like the one where we were told that Saddam Hussein sought Nigerian Uranium. Then there was the WMDs and then the ‘mission accomplished.’
Do I take pride in considering my own president as a genocidal leader? Absolutely not! I brought the lie hook line and sinker and was out there supporting our president’s efforts. The guy who I really feel sorry for is Colin Powell. He destroyed his entire brilliant career as the deliverer of the big lie to congress. And to this day, is his greatest regret.
I do not support the likes of Saddam and agreed to his removal, but we should not have gone it alone. Even your average police officer knows when to call for backup!
IS it a good time to buy home in NJ?
Stu,
“Want some investment advice? Don’t invest!”
Great advice. We are now in a preserve your capital stage of investing. You’re a fool if you think you’re smart enough to be able to grow your wealth in these times. I’ve been holding on to my money in CD’s and indexes for the past 2 yrs now.
“The market is in a panic”
tick… tick… tick… tick…
lots of redundant chatter for weeks…..so you must look for the nuggets of real information….
HERE
WSJ
Great Unwind’ May Be Here As Problems Spread To Broad Bond Market, Top Brokers Could Suffer
By RANDALL SMITH and SERENA NG
August 6, 2007; Page C1
The problems have been gathering for months, beginning with subprime loans and spreading outward. Now Wall Street firms face the risk of a broad bond-market unwind, leaving vulnerable five years of record earnings and stock run-ups.
Investors are worrying about more than just reduced earnings growth. It’s the overall uncertainty, they say: The unintended risks of “bridge” loans stuck on balance sheets or even how to value a new set of exotic securities that can’t find buyers. This could weigh on Wall Street stocks — be it Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. or Goldman Sachs Group Inc. — for months to come.
Analyst Brad Hintz of Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. predicts “performance will decline” at the top five U.S. brokers for the second half of the year. “The halcyon days,” he adds, “may be over for now.” Perhaps that’s why chatter around some firms suggests job cuts could be coming if conditions don’t improve by September.
[edit]
THERE……keep an eye HERE
MM # 60. I agree.
I’m now in a 70% cash position paying 5.5%. Funny, my jumbo mortgage is locked in at 5.5% too. I figured I would borrow as much as I could since making 5.5% would be a cinch. It was for the first three years of the loan, but I doubt it will be going forward.
Hell_is_like_Newark, I remember you from the F’d Company board way back when. Remember thatmess?
Q: Index-people…..how is all that indexing crap working for you right now?
“I think President Bush will be one of the greatest presidents in history. He should liberate Iran in final year of his presidency and solve mideast problem completely. ”
I am not left or right, whoever can make our life better and our country stronger, I will vote for him/her, however, I will have to say, after seeing what happened in the last 8 years, my confidence in our government can not be any lower, to this days, I still don’t understand why we had to pull out of Afganistan and went into Iraq before catching or killing Binladin, I still don’t know why it took FEMA so damn long to respond to Katrina, and now, seeing the bridge falling down in Minneapolis, I am more convinced than ever that we are spending way too much on the war in Iraq and not enough on our infrastructures here at home.
Liberate Iran? You are kidding, right? You can’t fight a war without money, we are already so damn broke, who the hell is going to pay for the next war.
was driving around northern westchester yesterday… open houses around every corner. smell of desperation in the air. the white knight is not coming and I think sellers may be starting to understand this
as a percent of GDP, military spending is historically very low. Less than 1/10 of what it was in WWII.
our government is broke because of entitlements (medicare, medicaid and social security), which make up more than 2/3 of all federal spending.
Great, another week of gloom and doom! So far just about every prediction you people make never comes true. Remember all those 30% off 2005 prices some of you, including JB, made back in 2005? Go back and read the archives, they are a good laugh!
Unless you or a close family member is actually currently in the milatary or you lost a close family member in 9-11 who cares what you think about the war. It is an all volunteer force that is fighting. A close relative of mine died in 9-11 and when I spoke to his widow all I learned is I really have no right to talk on the subject. My wife and kids are alive and no one in my family is in the milatary. The widow as part of the 9-11 commission and settlement process had private talks with high level officials who offered her information that is not publicly available. She had an attorney and at first refused compensation until she had more info which she did get to see. I did not see any of that type of info and my thoughts were based off left wing newspapers and internet crap. So after that I decided I will leave the 9-11 talks to the widows and orphans as I feel it is no longer my place to sit here and second guess what other people are doing where they are willing to die for their country and I am just enjoying life as usual.
Keep on grinning and ignore reality. That’s what those mortgage brokers and loan writers did. So did the homebuilders. The sad part is that only the financial companies will probably get the bail out this time. Now do you want to discuss entitlement skep-tic?
The Open Ocean
By now, is there anyone over twelve in the USA who has not seen Jim Cramer’s tantrum recorded late Friday afternoon on CNBC as the stock market took a 280 point swan dive off the rocky cliff of Hedge Fund Island?
Cramer’s histrionics were only a few clicks above his normal antics on the “Mad Money” show, but even so, they made a remarkable impression of someone in real, not mock, despair. He mentioned more than once during the tirade that he’d been on the phone all week with other interested parties who were begging him to do something about the rising bloodbath on Wall Street. And by “do something,” they clearly meant that Cramer should go on his TV show and make an appeal to Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke to drop the prime interest rate at the Fed’s meeting this coming Tuesday — the purpose of which would be to make cheaper loan money available to the Wall Street players whose investment houses suddenly found themselves underwater in the churning straits off Hedge Fund Island, weighed down by bagfuls of worthless securitized non-performing mortgages.
Personally, I don’t quite get how a financial industry based on bad loans would be helped by borrowing more money to bail out a hopelessly unwinding Ponzi loan racket of the type the industry had engineered for itself — but maybe I’m lacking the gene for financial creativity that the Bear Stearns bonus babies were all born with.
In any case, apropos of Cramer’s telephone marathon, one can only imagine the number of cell phone minutes racked up this weekend out in the Hamptons by players trying desperately to finagle their way out of the brutal fact that their firms and funds suddenly lay exposed to the cruel ravages of reality. A lot of catered crab tidbits and mini-quiches must have gone uneaten out along the dunes as weeping men in blazers realized that “marked to market” had come to mean the same thing as “holding a bundle of sh*t.”
I’d be surprised if all these geniuses hadn’t managed to rig some kind of a life raft over the weekend, but…
continues at:
http://www.kunstler.com/mags_diary21.html
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The cost to insure the debt of Countrywide Financial Corp. (NYSE:CFC – News), the largest U.S. mortgage lender, and U.S. brokers with exposure to mortgages, including Bear Stearns Cos. (NYSE:BSC – News), surged on Monday.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070806/countrywide_swaps.html?.v=1
#71
I’m not ignoring reality. I was only pointing out that this war is not particularly expensive from a historical point of view. You can try to search for some hidden motive in that statement if you want, but the fact remains the same.
As for bailouts, I do not personally think they are coming unless systemic risk is present. In which case, we should be happy to have them.
Following the bankruptcy news, the New York Stock Exchange commenced delisting of all of American Home’s common and preferred shares. The company will have the opportunity to appeal this decision, according to a release from NYSE Regulation Inc., but no such appeal is expected.
The company, which went from unexpectedly delaying a dividend on Friday, July 27 to shuttering most operations and laying off nearly 90 percent of its more than 7,000 workers a week later, intends to take $50 million in financing from financier Wilbur Ross through his company WL Ross & Co. Llc.
The money will be provided under a “debtor in possession” agreement, which means Ross will have priority over American Home’s other creditors when collecting funds during the proccess of reorganization and liquidation.
That fact is important to American Home’s many shareholders and creditors because the company’s debts are greater than its assets. This morning’s release said it expects “there will be no shareholder equity remaining.”
The company has over 100,000 creditors, according to court papers
Trailing 12 months indexed till end July:
16%, 14%, 19%, 18%, 9%, -1%, 46%, 37%, 26%, 25%, 15%, 5.4%, 5.5%. Cash has earned 5.3% trailing 12 months.
I’m not ready to abandon indexing quite yet. Come December 07 when all those taxable distributions come to roost, I’ll just tax harvest and move on.
FWIW, I’m 40% US equity.
Volunteer? What other option do many of these fine young American’s have? Hmmmm. Military or prison? When it comes to maintaining the separation of the classes, the neo-cons wrote the book. It’s titled, Project for the New American Century.
Go check out the website it’s loaded with many of our president’s justifications. While you are there, perhaps you might want to purchase a copy of Gustave Le Bon’s 1895 The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind, which theorized propaganda as an adequate rational technique to control the seemingly irrational behaviour of crowds. Combine the power of those two doctrines and your just steps from starting the 4th reich.
Anyone have the MLS sales, listing, etc. history for the following house in Ridgewood?
(current listing, recent prior listings, prior sales, etc)
Thanks, Eagle
MLS 2725481
“Volunteer? What other option do many of these fine young American’s have? Hmmmm. Military or prison?”
What exactly do you base that statement off of? My father was in the Miltary for 25 years (from my birth until I was 18). My brother is in the Air Force and my Brother-in-Law is in the Army. I spent my entire life living on Army bases and that statement is soo ignorant and based on old thinking.
John #70
re: 9/11 victims and our soldiers
no such thing as intellectual privilege, no matter how much you or I have suffered.
Please spare others and save your political opinions for another web site/board/blog.
Eagle,
MLS 2725481
SLD MCGUIRE CT $670,000 7/10/2000
ACT MCGUIRE CT $1,249,000 2/2/2006
PCH MCGUIRE CT $1,195,000 3/5/2006
PCH MCGUIRE CT $1,170,000 4/12/2006
ACT MCGUIRE CT $1,170,000 5/3/2006 (Same broker & agent)
PCH MCGUIRE CT $1,150,000 5/25/2006
PCH MCGUIRE CT $1,050,000 7/28/2006
PCH MCGUIRE CT $999,999 9/30/2006
EXT MCGUIRE CT $999,999 11/3/2006
EXP MCGUIRE CT $999,999 11/9/2006
ACT MCGUIRE CT $999,999 11/11/2006 (New broker & agent)
EXT MCGUIRE CT $999,999 1/3/2007
EXT MCGUIRE CT $999,999 1/31/2007
W-U MCGUIRE CT $999,999 2/16/2007
ACT MCGUIRE CT $999,999 2/16/2007 (Return to old broker & agent)
W-C MCGUIRE CT $999,999 6/4/2007
ACT MCGUIRE CT $850,000 6/21/2007 (Same broker & agent)
ACT* MCGUIRE CT $850,000 6/26/2007
U/C MCGUIRE CT $850,000 7/10/2007
BOM MCGUIRE CT $850,000 8/3/2007
Taxes: $16,450
Eagle
Wow! what a history, I am cleaning it up and will post. Give me a minute
KL
# Rich In NNJ Says:
August 6th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
Please spare others and save your political opinions for another web site/board/blog.
I agree.
And I think we can all agree upon the fact that we all appreciate the fact that in this great country, we have the right to speak our minds.
Justin, I did not say all. “What other option do many of these fine young American’s have?” I apologize if I offended you and respect our military and the need for a strong national defense.
Now back to the imploding housing market ;)
How brilliant were Cramer’s words that if you took out a subprime loan and are falling into financial troubles, just walk away?
Do you agree with this as the optimal strategy rather than fighting an impending foreclosure?
The spreads are increasing and the bulk of resets are on the horizon. What will the spring of 2008 look like?
Home Myths Meet Reality
Builders Were Supposed
To Handle Downturn;
What Went Wrong?
By MICHAEL CORKERY
August 4, 2007; Page B1
http://online.wsj.com/article_print/SB118618271832887837.html
Nevermind,
Rich is quicker.
KL
Rich- thanks so much. (KL- thanks for your response also)
Eagle
wait…is MLS 2725481 for real?
did the price come down that much? flood zone? why did it come down so much? i thought ridgewood was one of the premier ‘no bubble’ towns? actually this is probably worse than bubble!
maybe i should change my name to ‘Can probably now afford in BC’
WOW!
That is a first, I almost sparked a war debate by saying I was not going to offer my opinion on the war debate.
I guess that fellow thinks that in the deep south the guidance counselors just tell the trailor home kids their career options are milatary or prision. (maybe the third choice is Walmart) Wish it were true cause then we never would of had of big bill up in the white house and we never would of had “billy beer”. Now that would be a great loss.
Well back to housing. The ship has sailed and the iceberg is near. The end.
The house is right along a river, so very possibly a flood zone. It is also in the SE corner of Ridgewood, which is the “bad” section, to the extent there is one. Also, there appears to be VERY little backyard– it looks like it may have been a small cape, etc., that was a teardown where the house occupies much of the lot.
Rich [81],
Wow. I missed the original post. What town?
#84,
No worries, in the Spring of 2008 regular working people in NJ will finally be able to afford a house, that will big a change.
for that kind of price reduction, you could probably tear that hideous house down and build a nice cape!
get your backyard back!
there is a ‘bad’ section of ridgewood? what?
“maybe i should change my name to ‘Can probably now afford in BC’
WOW!”
No, you should leave your screename alone. Instead of concentrating on the price drops, you should have looked at the annual property taxes, which are $17,000. Buy the house and I will buy it for half of what you paid at the next tax auction.
Oh, and speaking of taxes, here is a tip for young and stupid first time homebuyers: PREOPERTY TAXES GO UP WHEN A HOUSE CHANGES HANDS! The taxes you see in the MLS are NOT what you will be paying!
“there is a ‘bad’ section of ridgewood? what?”
Yes, there is a bad section. Any part of Ridgewood that 3b lives in is the bad section!
Robert, that is exactly why i am going to tear it down and build a cape! taxes should come down right?
okay, all kidding aside now, that house is hideous, taxes are ridiculous and the price is still way over what i would want to spend for a house…even at 670K for that McMansion, you couldnt pay me to buy that house – if that makes any sense…
does this mean that i can buy a cape in bergen county for 300K?
Not always Robert.
Mine didn’t.
118 Barnes Spring Court
Cary, NC 27519
4 bedroom
2,730 square feet
.43 acres
List price: $389,900
http://trianglepictures.marketlinx.com/mediadisplay/36/hr1002036-1.jpg
Yard:
http://trianglepictures.marketlinx.com/mediadisplay/36/hr1002036-2.jpg
unrealtor, you are making me salivate…
unfortunately, i love what i do for a living and its near BC or NC! thanks though…
maybe i should look for a transfer…
That house in Ridgewood is bad. It’s what you call a poor man’s McMansion. No hardwood floors???? Ha! They have to be kidding me! It looks like a glorified rental apartment with that ugly carpet.
looks like we will have another goldilock day! dow up 124 pts. 10 yr yield up a little bit but still at 4.7% level. OIL down 3%. it does not look like we are heading for major recession as many bears here hoped for.
Robert,
i completely agree…i am young and stupid, how else do you explain that fact that i am looking for a home in BC! high taxes, ok schools (compared to where i studied, this is joke), very little land, old houses, conjested,…..
sometimes i sit and think about how stupid i really am – about to commit to a 30YR mrtg for a house in BC…
Let’s see where we close. This will not help the Bernanke call tomorrow.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20144277/
NEW YORK – American Home Mortgage Corp. filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday, the latest casualty of a mortgage industry that has plunged into distress.
The Melville, N.Y.-based company’s request for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection — filed in bankruptcy court in Wilmington, Del. — caps a tumultuous 10 days for what was in 2006 the nation’s 10th-biggest home lender.
sl
“Robert, that is exactly why i am going to tear it down and build a cape! taxes should come down right?”
Actually, the taxes would go up because now the cape is considered new construction. Bergen County tax codes are crazy. There are multi-million dollar mansions in Bergen County that pay less taxes than smaller McMansions in other towns.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20144277/
NEW YORK – American Home Mortgage Corp. filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday, the latest casualty of a mortgage industry that has plunged into distress.
The Melville, N.Y.-based company’s request for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection — filed in bankruptcy court in Wilmington, Del. — caps a tumultuous 10 days for what was in 2006 the nation’s 10th-biggest home lender. [snip]
sl
sorry for the re-post.
Hey Rich or KL,
got a sale price for 240 paramus rd yet?
Or is it still UC?
sl
My taxes went up by about $1,000 right after closing.
Elizabeth and Armando Motto are living a real estate nightmare with a new breed of monster: the big homebuilder as lender. In November, 2005, the couple, who have four children, agreed to pay $540,000 for a newly built three-bedroom house in suburban Clarksburg, Md., near Washington, D.C. Rather than send them to a bank, the builder, Beazer Homes USA Inc., offered to provide a mortgage itself in an arrangement of the sort that helped fuel the long housing boom across the country.
But when it appeared that the Mottos might not qualify financially for the loan, things took a troubling turn. Beazer, according to the couple, inflated the pair’s earnings in loan-application documents by incorrectly stating they were collecting rental income from the house they were leaving. “I don’t want to misrepresent myself,” Elizabeth said in e-mail correspondence with Beazer’s outside mortgage service, dated July 14, 2006. But in the end, the couple signed the documents, and soon after they closed on the Clarksburg house.
They now regret it. The Mottos moved to Clarksburg, but they haven’t succeeded in unloading their previous home in Rockville, Md. They have nearly $1 million in mortgage debt on the two dwellings. With $145,000 in family income, Elizabeth says, they are “on the brink of foreclosure” on both houses. “We are so broke.”
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20145724/
Can’t afford in BC,
There are lots of towns in BC that have really low taxes. If you don’t mind buying a POS 1940s dump for $950,000 in Alpine, your taxes will be $3,500.
Link to MLS 2725481 in Ridgewood with pics:
http://www.prominentproperties.com/theproperties.html?mls_number=2725481
Forget McMansions, this is the type of house that so many people in southern Bergen County HATE.
http://njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2729199&id=999999
Palisades Park is now called “Duplex Park”
Just heard an analyst on Bloomberg Radio about 30 minutes ago, while talking about Home Depot, start a sentence with “since the housing slump is over”…
Why should we laugh at 30% off 2005 prices?
Rich in NJ posted some sale prices over the weekend. The houses were priced at 2005 prices … and sold for 20-30% off.
$1.99 [115],
Tha act is getting worn out. Go sell your damn house. If there are no delusional buyers left, take a HE and buy another.
BC Bob,
Ridgewood
StillLooking,
240 Paramus Rd, Ridgewood is still UC
Robert,
PREOPERTY TAXES GO UP WHEN A HOUSE CHANGES HANDS!
Wrong.
Your full of misinformation.
Actually, taxes very lately have been going down when changing hands as the sales price is less than the assessed price which gives you grounds to grieve.
#96, the majority of NJ towns (if any) do not re-assess upon sale..perhapos they should..but they do not. Only change is after a town wide reval or appeal.
bi (aka Kudlow),
looks like we will have another goldilock day!
Like last Friday?
“Rich in NJ posted some sale prices over the weekend. The houses were priced at 2005 prices … and sold for 20-30% off.”
Do not assume anything. How do we know for certain that those homes were priced at 2005 prices? They could have been priced higher. I frequently see homes in the MLS listed for over 2005 prices.
Property taxes go up when a hosue is sold. That is what happened to me. And property taxes WILL NOT go down when a house is sold, as John has suggested. He is obvivously spreading the spin that some realtors are spreading.
Do any of the Realtors around here do business in Cape May County? I’m curious to know what people are hearing about The Wildwoods and Ocean City.
Proof we’re down 20% from 2005 prices:
Rich posted this house in WESTWOOD that recently sold
ACT WESTEND AVE $708,000 9/14/2006
PCH WESTEND AVE $699,000 10/15/2006
PCH WESTEND AVE $665,000 11/20/2006
PCH WESTEND AVE $650,000 1/13/2007
ACT WESTEND AVE $599,000 2/16/2007
PCH WESTEND AVE $579,000 3/15/2007
PCH WESTEND AVE $564,900 3/27/2007
PCH WESTEND AVE $549,900 4/10/2007
PCH WESTEND AVE $544,900 8/2/2007
If the house sold for 20% off of $708k, the house would have sold for $566,400.
So this house is one example of a house selling for 20% off 2005 prices. (**I don’t have an address, so i can’t say how close this house was priced to 2005 Westwood sales. If anyone can find an address, I will gladly look into it.)
Guide to Going Bankrupt in Real Estate.
First, watch the late night infomercials on TV, and possibly order some real estate tapes from Carlton Sheets. This will provide you with a positive upbeat attitude and a sense of false confidence that is essential in order to go bankrupt. Believe that after listening to some tapes, you can compete with people that have done this 7 days a week for years.
Look for a discount or a distressed property over a good long term investment. Late night infomercials and Carlton Sheets talk a lot about this. Getting equity at the point of sale. One thing about distressed properties with desperate sellers is that they frequently are in crappy areas with low appreciation rates. Buying a property at under market rate in an area with low appreciation potential versus a property in a good area is the kind of short sighted thinking that will really help you reach the goal of bankruptcy and foreclosure.
When you talk to people, try to spend time talking about all the crap you learned from your book or late night infomercial. The more you listen to other people, the more you might get different perspectives and the higher the chance you might learn new things. This could really hurt your chances of going bankrupt, so avoid listening to anyone. Remember you know everything even if you only got interested in real estate last week.
Be positive to the point of stupidity. A lot of investors I know always think about how their situation would be affected by a 10 or 20 percent drop in the market before making a purchase. You should avoid this kind of thinking. You need to be blinded by greed. You should only think about how you are going to double your money. Fantasize about, I don’t know, how you are going to buy a bunch of boats or something.
When calculating your monthly cashflow, assume that you will have 100% occupancies all the time and no maintenance costs. While you are at it, assume it’s going to rain money tomorrow.
Also, be stubborn when renting your properties. Decide upon a number, say $900/month, and refuse to budge. Come up with some bizarre logic about how the property deserves $900/month. Lose months of rent having the property sit vacant instead of going down $50 on the rent. Instead of responding to the market, make statements like “Well the market’s wrong then.”
As you move closer to foreclosure, don’t alter your spending habits. Don’t move into a smaller house or cut spending. Just assume something will magically happen that will fix everything. Maybe you are the only heir to the king of Prussia. If people tell you Prussia doesn’t exist anymore and never had kings, they are just negative thinkers trying to bring you down. Ignore them.
Overextend, overextend, overextend. Are you approved to buy one house? Why not buy five? Heck, why not 20? Instead of building up a portfolio of properties over time and gaining experience, just buy a lot of properties next Tuesday.
A lot of people are getting into the foreclosure game, there is no reason you should be left behind. Its fun. Its exciting. It could be you. Throwing caution to the wind and filling your eyes with greed you should find yourself walking down the golden path to foreclosure.
I’m not sure what the answer is;
if property taxes are based on the sale price of course they will increase if the house sells for more than it did at its last sale. On the other hand if taxes are based on property valuations done by the municipality then they might not increase with a sale.
Robert #111
Taxes go up almost every year on houses even when they don’t change hands because our state and local governments keep increasing their spending.
Assessments generally do not go up when a property changes hands. They are usually only changed when a property is improved or if the entire town undergoes a reassessment or revaluation.
The assessment on my house stayed the same from 1989 – 2006. My house was assessed at $208k. I purchased it for $480k in 2004. My assessment did not change until this year when my town revalued all properties as ordered by our County Board of Taxation.
While our assessment did not go up until the reval, the amount of property taxes we paid rose every year. We are now paying $3500 more/year than we paid when we purchased our home 3 years ago.
No slowdown to NYC market:
Pray for Bad Weather
Last winter, Devon and Nick McConnell sold their one-bedroom co-op on West End Avenue in Manhattan. The listing price was $399,000. The selling price was $435,000. “We fully expected to get $50,000 less,” Nick told me.
There happened to be a blizzard on the day of their open house. Should they cancel? Absolutely not, said their broker, Richard Merton of Stribling & Associates. He never cancels for bad weather.
“You don’t have tire-kickers coming out in a blizzard,” he told me. “They are serious shoppers.” – JOYCE COHEN
http://walkthrough.nytimes.com/
1:37[NFI] NovaStar continues to honor all existing loan commitments
1:36[NFI] NovaStar temporarily suspended new commitments until Tues.
1:35[NFI] Novastar to return to committing new wholesale loans Tues.
bloodbath,
For every anecdotal example of a house selling for 30% off 2005 prices; I’m sure the Duck can find a house that sell for more than it did in 2005. Right Duck?
Bloodbath in Winter 2007 Says:
Proof we’re down 20% from 2005 prices:
#117 sync: Since the housing slump is over, this guiy is delusional. Over? Its just really getting under way.
Bloodbath,
The original asking price means nothing. We only care about 2005 SOLD prices. Please don’t entertain me with houses selling for 20% less than their asking prices. I would like to see a house sell for 20% off it’s 2005 SOLD price.
This is exactly why I despise JB’s lowball column. A drop in asking prices means nothing. When NAR evalautes the market, they take the average of SOLD houses to see if prices have gone up or down. They could not care less about asking prices.
Re: water problem over the weekend
Is this for real?
“Others, such as Cliffside Park, alerted residents with loudspeaker-equipped vehicles.”
That’s some cutting edge technology on display right there.
njgator, my goodness, where do you live?
wait, do taxes go up by thousands like that in three years? so then we will back in this unaffordability game in another few years then?
someone please explain?
Property taxes go up when a hosue is sold. That is what happened to me.
In Bergen County, property taxes are based upon valuation determined by the municipality (as ADA pointed out) not on real estate sales. Each year after budgets are approved taxes are than affected. Property tax changes don’t happen on January 1 of the year but in the spring.
So your taxes went up due to county, town and school budgets. Not because you purchased the home.
I LOVE the NY Times real estate blog. It does not make crazy preidctions like this one. Here is another good entry:
Gloom and Doom real estate blogger GIVES UP!
Marin Bubble Blog Gives Up
Categories: Media
I got this email from the Marin Real Estate Bubble blogger, one of the loudest voices in the real estate price run-up saying that something was amiss:
I’ve lost my faith, at least for Marin County. Despite all reason and rationality to the contrary, I am no longer so sure that Marin County will succumb to a collapsing housing bubble. I’m actually starting to think that somehow Marin (and maybe the Bay Area at large) is not subject to the same laws of economics as everywhere else. Seriously. This contrarian is “throwing in the towel” and capitulating for the present (which must mean the collapse is on the verge of happening). I dunno, maybe I’ll get over it and start blogging again tomorrow but as of today I am so discouraged that I can’t bring myself to it.
Anyway, the point of this email is that my blog is going silent for a while. If Marin starts to tank then I’ll resume blogging to document the downfall and to rub it directly in the face of Marin hubris and arrogance (and I’ll still be compiling charts during the silent period so that I can show them in the future). I just wanted other bloggers to know why my blog is going silent for a while so that you could decide whether or not to keep linking. I won’t ever take the blog down as there are good resources there.
Unless you can talk me into believing again what must be true, that Marin is not special…
Hey Robert,
Do you have anything to post that’s NOT outdated?
116#, syncmaster,
in my area, it was over 6 months ago. i saw over 10 for sale sign in a development of 120 houses in spring 2005 but i saw only 1 or 2 in last spring. i heard one guy got multiple offers last week and end up 10K over listing price. the market is similar to 2002.
Cliffside Park
SLD EDGEWATER RD $610,000 9/20/2005
SLD EDGEWATER RD $529,000 8/2/2007
Closter
SLD HOMANS AVE $1,500,000 3/22/2006
SLD HOMANS AVE $1,535,000 8/1/2007
(2.3% / not even in line with inflation let alone commission and closing costs)
Old Tappan
ACT ORANGEBURGH RD $659,000 8/18/2006
SLD ORANGEBURGH RD $545,000 8/2/2007
Ridgewood
SLD S PLEASANT AVE $425,000 8/15/2002
SLD S PLEASANT AVE $495,000 8/1/2007
(3.1%/year)
ACT WALL ST $639,000 3/13/2007
SLD WALL ST $591,000 8/2/2007
ACT LOTTE RD $1,795,000 2/23/2007
SLD LOTTE RD $1,550,000 8/1/2007
Donald
Quoting the nytimes’ “walk through” blog? That thing shut down ages ago. In fact the post you cited is from over a year ago. Talk about misinformation.
Tax amounts are public so if you want to verify how accurate it is to the listing look at zillow.
Taxes did not go up for us when we closed on our house and when there was a reval the next year they dropped by 30%. The house was fairly new and since there had not been a reval for over 20 years we were hit with a higher than most value.
In two more years that 30% will be gone….
Cliffside Park
SLD EDGEWATER RD $610,000 9/20/2005
SLD EDGEWATER RD $529,000 8/2/2007
“Do you have anything to post that’s NOT outdated?”
hehe,
Certainly not his asking price.
Check out post 191 from the weekend thread for Sold data
My bad. I thought the blog entry was from July 14, 2007. I wonder if that guy has went back to blogging or if he completely surrerndered to the RE bears.
unmoderate please
#135 Cant afford in BC
Montclair….or as some like to refer to it, “The People’s Republic of Montclair”.
Can someone PLEASE find ANY information on 1002 Closter Dock Road in Alpine? PLEASE?
Like how much it was bought for? This is a phantom house. There is no sold data for it in the tax records so I was wondering if someone with MLS access can help me out?
Thanks!
Towns cannot reassess properties when they are sold, that would be considered spot valuations (illegal) and you can’t revalue one house without revaluing the whole town. New contruction is different as it didn’t have a basis to begin with, you have to start somewhere. That is why new contruction typically has higher taxes than existing.
Robert- if your taxes went up by $1,000 when you bought you should go to your tax assessor and get it corrected, what they did is illegal. Maybe the listing agent had the wrong tax number, the listing was made using the 2006 tax # and then when the 2007 taxes came out they never updated the listing. I’ve seen plenty of listings that have old tax #’s from the previous year.
“Montclair….or as some like to refer to it, “The People’s Republic of Montclair”.”
What are you talking about? Montclair is as Democratic as you can get! After all Stephen Colbert lives in Montclair!
I will wait while you google Stephen Colbert….
lisoosh (55)-
Jumbos have taken a big hit, subprime is dead and Alt-A is on life support.
That being said, the small, determined buyer pool out there right now (as far as I can tell) in my area seems to have DP money and high credit scores. None of the deals coming thru my office right now are being done by buyers who are toxic/no DP.
Hard to imagine, but there ARE people out there who have DP money and good credit. In this environment, they rule.
lisoosh (55)-
And you wouldn’t believe what a comeback FHA loans (the ORIGINAL subprime loan) are making! I have a steady stream of them coming thru now. Up until about 6 weeks ago, I hadn’t seen one in over two years.
clotpoll, what is the original subprime loan? FHA loan?
#130 Duck
There was a blizzard?!?!?!?!?
In August?!?!?!?!?!!?
#149
Clot–
What strategies are you advising these buyers to take?
Thanks
clotpoll, yes, there are still some of us left that have a good cash on hand (saving for a few years now) and are looking to buy…
the only problem was that the putting down the cash on hand still didnt keep the monthly mrtg payment to under 25% of total take home income – affordability problem…
looks like its starting to correct itself…spring 08 or 09, it doesnt really matter to me, we will just wait till its affordable again..until then, unfortunately, i have to rent!
1002 Closter Dock Road 2-family house) has been listed nine times (listings were either withdrawn or expired) since 2003 without going under attorney review once.
It’s available to rent for $2,000 (was offered at $3,000).
ACT 1002 CLOSTER DOCK RD $950,000 9/29/2003
ACT 1002 CLOSTER DOCK RD $925,000 1/4/2004
ACT 1002 CLOSTER DOCK RD $925,000 1/4/2004
PCH 1002 CLOSTER DOCK RD $885,000 3/27/2004
PCH 1002 CLOSTER DOCK RD $869,000 5/25/2004
ACT 1002 CLOSTER DOCK RD $850,000 7/13/2004
ACT 1002 CLOSTER DOCK RD $850,000 7/13/2004
PCH 1002 CLOSTER DOCK RD $839,900 8/12/2004
ACT 1002 CLOSTER DOCK RD $1,125,000 9/22/2006
ACT 1002 CLOSTER DOCK RD $985,000 10/25/2006
ACT 1002 CLOSTER DOCK RD $969,000 5/15/2007
ACT 1002 CLOSTER DOCK RD $949,900 7/16/2007
DEL 1002 CLOSTER DOCK RD $949,900 8/2/2007
“Towns cannot reassess properties when they are sold, that would be considered spot valuations (illegal) and you can’t revalue one house without revaluing the whole town.”
Illegal? That is nothing new here. In my town, property owners lose their homes through eminent domain. The town’s “relocation people” came into their houses last summer and told them they had to be out by October or else they would be escorted out by the police. Then they tore down lovely single family houses in order to build twin 20 story condo towers.
Thank you so much Rich! That house has some history. Shouldn’t it have been sold by now? Forget “prestigious” Bergen County. That house in is ULTRA Prestigious Bergen County! 4 years on the market makes my 12 months look like a picnic!
Um… what does eminent domain have to do with property tax assessments?
#158 Pooch
The same thing blizzards have to do with summertime RE sales.
Aegis Mortgage suspends all loan originations
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/aegis-mortgage-suspends-all-loan/story.aspx?guid=%7B5B581BEF%2DED60%2D46E1%2DBE53%2DADEA1F3DFC70%7D&dist=hplatest
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Aegis Mortgage Corp., a mortgage lender part-owned by private-equity firm Cerberus Capital Management, suspended all loan originations on Monday.
can we resume the policy of ignoring Robert and Bi? they add nothing to the discussion
“Um… what does eminent domain have to do with property tax assessments?”
Everything, when a town sees that your POS cape is not bringing in enough taxes, they can take it from you through eminent domain in order to allow a devleoper to build something that will bring in 10 times as much revenue. If your POS cape is only bringing in $6k and one of the mayor’s developers/campaign contributors wants to build a row of Mcmnasions or whatever on your property, you can kiss your cape goodbye!
Robert,
Are you still confused about property taxes in Bergen County?
Your post number 158…? What are you trying to say?
Did you READ post 136 above?
“can we resume the policy of ignoring Robert and Bi? they add nothing to the discussion”
Neither do you
bi,
Once again,another grat call great call; H-B’s. You must make your margin clerk’s head spin. I’m picturing the Exorcist.
How Speculators Exploit Market Fears
by Ben Stein
Here’s a fact: The speculators and hedge fund managers who run today’s stock market need market volatility in order to make money.
They can’t make enough money if the market stays flat or moves only a bit, so they like extreme and unexpected price movements. They especially like sudden, surprise movements down, when they can make money off stocks they borrow and sell — or, as they say, “sell short.”
Housing a Theory
Yes, the housing market has slowed from a spectacular bubble level to a simply pretty good level. Housing sales and starts are now about what they were in 2002, and no one thought we were in a housing depression then.
In any event, housing is only about 5 percent of the economy. If it falls by 15 percent, that would represent a fall-off of about .75 percent. That’s not trivial, but it’s also not the stuff of which recessions are made.
The fact is that there is no recession. The economy is suffering from a labor shortage, not a surplus of unemployment. The Fed is worried about excess demand, not slack demand.
Corporate profits set new records every day. Whatever’s happening in residential sales and building is simply not slowing down the economy. Why should a Boeing or a Merck or a Pfizer have any reaction to housing at all? Because the speculators sell everything they can when nervousness sets in — and for no other reason.
A Minor Major Mess
Subprime is a mess. But it’s a small mess. Subprime mortgages account for roughly 20 percent of mortgages even in the most heavily exposed states. About 20 percent of them are delinquent in some way. That’s 4 percent of mortgages.
Of these, maybe half, or 2 percent, will go into foreclosure. There will be roughly 50 percent recovery on sale of these. This is a loss of 1 percent in the mortgage market — a sum the lenders have already made many times over because of the hefty fees on those deals. In the context of the size of the U.S. financial sector, it’s nothing.
And why should a crisis in subprime drive down stocks in Mexico and Thailand? Again, because the speculators seek to create panic to make money by selling short, and they sell short everything.
There’s simply no connection between subprime and developed or developing nations’ stocks. This by itself shows the thin context of the selling wave late last month.
I guess he kind of admits, Media is involved helping speculation. I don’t think any of observation made by Ben are new, but to what extent is the question?
bi,
Once again,another great call great call; H-B’s. You must make your margin clerk’s head spin. I’m picturing the Exorcist.
Donald,
You’re changing the subject by bringing in eminent domain instead of realizing the truth about property taxes in Bergen COunty?
#161
“can we resume the policy of ignoring Robert and Bi? they add nothing to the discussion”
Oh, come on. They are both very entertaining. Like Oliver Hardy. Or Lou Costello. Or Cletis the Slack-Jawed Yokel.
165#, i lost in XHB v.s. lender(WM/CFC) but so far so good on GLD v.s. USO. still long PPH but will refrain myself from taling stocks. we are in RE blog anyway.
I was able to get a lower tax assessment after I purchased my home. I argued that the town’s assessment was too high based on the fact that I paid less for it than the assessment. And I won. Mind you, this was back in 1991. (and we have not had a reval since!)
Robert (96)-
Wrong. Again. As usual.
Donald,
You’re welcome.
No be a man and fess up that you were wrong about property taxes already.
Well, I hope I am wrong about the taxes going up on sold homes so that I do not get a surprise when I buy my POS dump in Alpine that has been on the market for 4 years!!!
Very good job ignoring me Clot. How long did your boycott last? 14 hours? I knew you would surrender. They ALWAYS do. I just never imagined that you would break so fast!
Glad I’m not trying to sell a condo in Florida. New lending guidelines from H&R Block’s Option One mortgage unit say they won’t lend for FL condos. If this becomes a trend, watch out below. Actually even if it doesn’t, watch out below.
“Option One will not accept submissions secured by condos in Florida”
http://www.oomc.com/post/_marketing/phaseVII/phase7pg.html
“To make money, you have to be greedy when everyone else is fearful and fearful when everyone else is greedy.”
— Warren Buffett
“When everyone thinks the same thing, no one is thinking.”
— Old traders’ adage
“What you see depends on what you have seen.”
— Bill Bonner
There are plenty of mortgagae brokers dying to give buyers loans for condos on the NJ Gold Coast. There are many who regularly post on kannekt looking for customers! They probabaly know that the GC is a sound invesmtnet with little chance of massive defaults.
“can we resume the policy of ignoring Robert and Bi?”
skeptic [161],
Bi has been a great contrarian play.
Robert? He’s just playing with it.
SG,
Also from Warren; When the tide goes out, we’ll see who is swimming naked.
“can we resume the policy of ignoring Robert and Bi?”
I think most of us already are, at least those of us that aren’t interested in reading bullsh*t.
Finally!
Capital One Changes Credit Reporting Policy
Capital One Financial Corp. says it has changed its reporting policies. Going forward, the company will report all cardholders’ credit limits to the three national credit bureaus.
This is potentially good news for home mortgage applicants because it could raise their credit scores.
The Fair Isaac credit system takes into account available credit; If the system can’t accurately determine how much credit is available, it guesses high.
According to FICO, this change could boost the credit scores of about 50 million Capital One card holders by 40 to 80 points, which last week would have been enough to cut an applicant’s mortgage rate by more than 1 point, saving the borrower of $300,000 about $220 per month.
“It’s about time they stopped hurting their own customers,” says Ginny Ferguson, a credit scoring expert for the National Association of Mortgage Brokers. “They’ve known all along that [their policy] depressed FICO scores.”
#167 To Mr. Stein I would say it is certainly far more than a small mess. And as far as jobs, well the latest number was less than expected, and as I always say, lets looka t the qulaity of the jobs being created.
I believe one would have to be in complete denial to think this thing will end beningly,at least in the USA.
In 164 there was the startling admission by inference that Cliffhanger understands that he adds no value to the conversation. Too good to be true, it still is a refreshing splash of accidental and obviously unconscious accuracy.
Down payments are in vogue again? SOmebody pinch me awake…
A deteriorating market just shows how much flexibility having a sizeable down payment will wield.
Gone are the days where squirreling away the 20% down payment amount almost seemed elusive as prices soared year after year. As prices reach a permanently high plateau (yeah right) or outright decline, the 20%+ threshold may appear sooner for some.
isn’t the tax information in the MLS based on the previous full year’s tax? If so, then the tax will be marginally higer after a sale because it is a new tax year (unless property taxes fall!!! and we know how likely that is). Also, does the MLS tax information include municipal, school and county taxes or is a category left out..e.g. open space tax???
link for #179
http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2007080605?OpenDocument
Ben Stein is a clown. He was one of the FOX wacko’s I watched this weekend. Last I checked nobody said we were in a recession just that it is a possibility. Moreover where was his article a few months ago complaining about the emerging market stocks rising too highly because of all the speculators?
Is Cliffside Park part of this ‘Gold Coast’?
It’s funny, this weekend they actually drove trucks with speakers on them around town to warn people about their unsafe drinking water.
Seems right out of the 50s.
This is not capitulation. I want BLOOD running in the streets, I want 1992 when people would rather pay more to rent than own as Real Estate is a lousy investment. I want flipping shows to stop, I want a major money center bank going under, I want Bear to be bought in a fire sale. When that happens we will have a true bottom. All we have now is a false bottom, this is a classic bear market bear trap, you think it has hit bottom and you stick you toe in and it gets CUT OFF. Don’t BUY in 2007 or 2008.
Mortgage companies have cut their payrolls by nearly 46,000 employees since October, including 7,400 full-time positions in June, as the slowdown in mortgage originations, particularly subprime loans, is forcing a retrenchment.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employment in the mortgage banker/broker sector fell from 466,200 in May to 458,800 in June. The industry has experienced a 9.1% cutback in the work force since October, when industry employment stood at a 12-month high of 504,700.
Impacting June’s mortgage employment numbers were layoffs at Washington Mutual Inc., BNC Mortgage LLC and GreenPoint Mortgage.
Upcoming government data is likely to reflect further declines, with last week’s massive layoffs at Alt-A lender American Home Mortgage Investment Corp., which cut more than 6,000 jobs Friday.
And activity at subprime lenders will also help fuel more declines.
First NLC Financial Services closed 23 retail branches and cut 640 jobs. Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co.’s 4,200 employees could be unemployed if a deal to acquire that company collapses. And Fieldstone Mortgage Co. told its 900 employees Wednesday that it would halt new business as it grapples with the potential insolvency of its parent – Credit-Based Asset Servicing and Securitization LLC.
I would be quite suprised if prices went lower than 20% over the next 5 years.
20% lower than what they are currently that is.
Asking prices mean nothing … where are you getting this from?
When you put your house on the market, what did you do?
You price it based on COMPS in the area, right? A house down the block sold for $850k two weeks ago, so you put your house on the market (assuming it’s comparable) for $850k.
This is why I think it’s fair to say that some houses are selling for 20% off 2005 prices.
National City Home Equity says it suspends loan approvals
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/national-city-home-equity-says/story.aspx?guid=%7B2F9B327A%2D862C%2D42B2%2DAC9F%2D44BCAA51DBE6%7D&dist=hplatest
>
#3 for today.
Jay Says:
August 6th, 2007 at 11:55 am
The Open Ocean
“A lot of catered crab tidbits and mini-quiches must have gone uneaten out along the dunes as weeping men in blazers realized that “marked to market” had come to mean the same thing as “holding a bundle of sh*t.””
J: so funny and on target you don’t even know…..I had to be very careful to whom I forwarded this text, because some were living it.
The stock market is surging. Sell your house and put it all into Apple. The Iphone is gonna revolutionize the world, even if it is quite difficult to dial.
Some of us were ragging on Editorials of the soon to be Murdoch Street Journal over the weekend…. he is something from that source today that is is DEAD-ON, and cannot be ignored….
Bernanke’s Bear Market
August 6, 2007; Page A12
That’s Bear with a capital B, as in Bear Stearns, the Wall Street titan whose credit problems on Friday triggered another broad stock market selloff. Credit markets are continuing to re-price risk across the board, and investors are wondering when the next financial corpse will float to the surface. So naturally the wounded are clamoring for the Federal Reserve to ride to the rescue with easier money when it meets tomorrow, even though the Fed helped create this mess.
Credit panics are never pretty, but their virtue is that they restore some fear and humility to the marketplace. That lesson is certainly being relearned at Bear Stearns, a venerable outfit that was supposed to be a whiz in the fixed-income market. But two of its subprime mortgage hedge funds have cost investors dearly, and Standard & Poor’s piled on Friday by downgrading Bear’s financial outlook to negative from stable.
Bear executives were alarmed enough to host a conference call with Wall Street analysts disclosing what they have done to shore up the firm’s balance sheet. But the call only alarmed investors more broadly when the Bear execs moaned that today’s fixed-income market is the worst in decades. Yesterday the company sacked the head of its capital markets business, and that might not be the end of the carnage.
[broken up to avoid moderation]
[continued from previous]
Last week amounted to an investor run on Bear, and regulators need to watch closely and perhaps clean house so Bear’s problems are contained. The Bush Administration hasn’t had to show this kind of financial plumbing capacity to date, and we hope Hank Paulson’s Treasury is on the job.
The big question is whether this credit correction is destined to become a full-blown credit crunch, damaging the larger economy. There’s not much doubt the mortgage market is getting worse, with the pain moving up the income chain from subprime loans. American Home Mortgage stopped lending last week, and the Sowood Capital Management hedge fund got caught by wider credit spreads. The ISI Group’s Andy Laperriere, who has been ahead of the housing curve, is predicting a further mortgage crunch “worse than most pessimistic assumptions.” In these kinds of financial corrections, it pays to expect more surprises.
Yet overall credit spreads are hardly out of line with historical norms. Spreads in the high-yield debt market have moved in the 5% range from 2.5% to 3%. What was truly out of whack was how narrow they became for so long. The rapidity of this return to normalcy is creating troubles, but they so far don’t seem to signal the kind of liquidity crunch we saw with the Asian crisis of the late 1990s, or the dot-com crash of 2001.
The global economy is booming, with every country save for a couple of despotisms growing. The so-called emerging economies of Brazil, China and India are growing fast enough that the U.S. consumer isn’t the world’s only growth engine. And for all of the credit worries, last Friday’s U.S. employment report for July showed a slowing but still healthy job market. The jobless rate rose to 4.6% but weekly jobless claims have fallen of late. The biggest decline in jobs came from government. Meanwhile, both services and manufacturing continue to expand, with the latter benefitting from exports feeding the global boom.
Which brings us to the Fed, and its Open Market Committee meeting tomorrow. As always amid a credit turn, the pleas for easier money are rising. We’re even hearing nostalgic cries for the return of Alan Greenspan, who is remembered fondly for supplying liquidity during the credit crises of his era. But what these cries forget is that the Greenspan Fed is one reason for the current mortgage mess. It’s tempting to blame Wall Street and other bankers for all those bad residential loans, and they are paying the price now. But they were also lending into a housing asset bubble fed by easy monetary policy. Risky mortgages always look better when home prices look like they’ll never decline.
Current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was along for the Greenspan ride, so he’s hardly blameless. No doubt he’d love to play the hero role now, signaling easier money this week. However, he’d have to do so at a time when the dollar is weak, oil is at $78 a barrel, and commodity prices in general are roaring. Mr. Bernanke and the Fed might have more room to maneuver this week had they been tighter earlier. But now they can’t afford to ignore global dollar weakness. The run on Bear Stearns would look like a Sunday stroll compared to a global run on the dollar.
I bought apple at 137 and was geeked for a week … and then it has tanked in the last week.
New imac out tomorrow … excited!!!
I’ll be back in the states late tomorrow afternoon..
jb
193 196
Wow! Talk about late to the party!
Tell me about it. Sad, really.
But what you like … I should have had this way, way earlier. Owned an apple cpu for three years and have been telling everyone how great it is. Naturally, i didn’t actually buy the stock.
Oh well.
whoops – ‘buy’ what you like
THE FED
Fed highly unlikely to ride to markets’ rescue
Ex-Fed official says FOMC may not even mention recent volatility
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:59 PM ET Aug 6, 2007
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Participants in financial markets shouldn’t get their hopes up that the Federal Reserve will intervene to alleviate the current market turmoil, a former Fed governor says.
“I think it is too early right now to think about any kind of intervention by the Fed,” said Susan Phillips, now the dean of the George Washington University business school in Washington, in a telephone interview.
Phillips said that the financial markets’ volatility is a painful but healthy “reality check” and that this has led to an overdue repricing of risk.
“We’re in the middle of that process,” Phillips said. “The Fed wants the market to find its own right place,” she said.
“We’re seeing some constriction in some of the high-risk markets, but quite frankly, that is probably appropriate,” Phillips said.
The Federal Open Market Committee will meet to consider U.S. monetary policy on Tuesday.
At the moment, the emerging consensus among Fed watchers is that the Ben Bernanke-led Fed will hold interest rates steady but that the policy statement released after this week’s meeting will add some wording about the troubles gripping the subprime mortgage sector.
“Frazzled nerves will not be sufficient for the FOMC to step in and lower the funds rate,” said Richard Moody, chief economist at Mission Residential, in a note to clients. The federal funds rate, currently 5.25%, hasn’t been changed since June 2006.
For her part, Phillips said she thinks the Fed will hold its tongue on the market turmoil.
“To me, it is something like a 60% chance they won’t say anything because they don’t want to intervene,” Phillips said.
Phillips also said that the Fed under Bernanke likely has a very high threshold to meet before it would intervene. In essence, Fed officials would only ease if the financial markets are close to becoming “inoperable.”
As Phillips sees it, the Fed might ease interest rates “if we were to have one of the really major [Wall Street] firms go under — not one of the subprime operators — and that caused severe liquidity problems in the market,” she said.
Phillips, a member of the Fed under previous chairman Alan Greenspan for seven years in the 1990s, said financial markets are much stronger today then when the so-called “Greenspan put,” which guaranteed a market floor, held sway.
“You have much better capability now to manage risk and if you look at the quality of the balance sheets of both banks and the private sector — the quality of those balance sheets is so much better than the early 1990s,” Phillips said.
“Markets are more resilient than they were during Greenspan’s early years,” Phillips added.
On a more general level, Phillips said Fed officials have a lot to discuss regarding the economic outlook. There are, for starters, questions about whether consumer spending is slowing down, and whether manufacturing can continue at a stronger pace in the second half of the year.
Phillips also said that there has only been a “slight improvement” in inflation and that the Fed will maintain inflation as its predominant policy concern for now.
“They have to” keep in place the bias against inflation, Phillips said.
Wells Fargo has a Morristown house for like 310K in their REO, ouch.
Latest guidance I saw was 225, so who knows?
Here’s the link to Wells Fargo’s REOs:
http://www.premierereo.com/reo/consumerSvlt/propertySearch/nav/ConsumerNavL1.jsp/requestPage/consumer/PropertySearchResults.jsp?listSize=40&searchState=NJ&searchZip=all&searchCity=all&searchDwelling=all&searchSqft=all
#189 tbw I would not be surprised at all, and I do nto think it will take that long either. Big drops coming later this year and into next year.
And of course you have the BC property tax increase, which in my rea has been averaging $600 to $800 bucks a year or more, over the last 5 years, and no end in sight.
#187 John I think this time (late summer Fall into Winter) in 08, will be a very good time.
anyone watching the market? it up over 280 points! either this is the real thing or the drop is just going to be worse after this run up?
I guess we won’t be treated to the Cramer rant we got Friday.
Scribe – Thanks for the link. I just looked at a few places and all i can say is:
is there anything NOT on a main road? Geez. The last thing i’d want to do is move into a house that’s on a road where the limit is 35/45 mph with a double yellow line down the middle.
Seriously …
#186 John
completely agree
Cant afford in BC Says:
August 6th, 2007 at 4:01 pm
anyone watching the market? it up over 280 points! either this is the real thing or the drop is just going to be worse after this run up?
CAIBC: ignore everything until about September 12-14 or so…..
#211
Why September 12-14??
yeah why sept 12 – 14…
i think i am going to use CAIBC from now on…
Thanks!
In which Jim Cramer explains that RE is in great shape, and homebuilders and lenders are doing just fine (end of ’06).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5zAvh-iFfU
If any one didn’t check their brokerage statement after Friday’s sell off and checks it today, it’s status quo. See no evil, hear no evil.
Nice dead cat bounce today, wait till the Fed gives them nothing tommorrow and watch the dow give it back after 2pm on Tuesday.
John – But watch for a small boost in Apple after the imac is released. Should be a good day for the best computer brand on the planet!!
Made the switch from PC to Apple (reluctantly) in the winter of 2004, and have never looked back. I have not had one problem (amazingly) with the ibook i purchased. But I’m on the computer all day, so feel the need for a desktop imac is necessary.
Just one guy’s prediction: apple will close at $138 tomorrow
Update: NovaStar: Headed to Zero?
Updated to include NovaStar’s comment about its loans.
If Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Scott Valentin is right, the news goes from bad to worse for NovaStar Financial (nfi)– no stranger to readers of my column or this blog. In a note to clients today, he reiterated his “underperform” on the subprime lender, saying that he is lowing its price target to zero, reflecting his belief there is a “high likelihood that NFI will be unable to continue operations.”
Valentin, who has been early and right with his previous warnings on NovaStar, says “the combination of the recent precedent of companies suspending originations prior to closing and the significant deterioration in subprime market conditions…would result in no value for equity holders given NFI’s excessive leverage and precipitous fall in subprime asset values.”
On Friday, NovaStar confirmed media reports that it would stop funding new loans originated by wholesale borkers until August 7, “at which time the suspension wold be evaluated.” Today NovAstar said it plans to resume makign new loans through its wholesale channel on August 7. In the wake of a bailout refinancing, NovaStar’s recently did a 1-for-4 reverse stock split, which recently boosted its shares to around $13. The stock has since done nothing but go down, at one point dipping below $5, bouncing to above $6 after the company’s funding update.
never used an apple and will never use an apple. your the first person I ever met who even owns one. This is why people in IT lose money in IT stocks, they think if they think it is great everyone else will including my mother in law with the long phone cord on the green phone nailed to the wall in her kitchen.
#217 John: that is my thinking, the Fed may not even mention the credit markets tomorrow in their statement.
Why the market rallied today makes absolutely no sense save that it is as you sya a dead cat bounce.
If the Fed mentions the credit markets can one argue that the problem is more severe, than the Street might think.
Mention the credit markets,and the street is happy, or mention the credit markest and the Street fears the Fed knows something they do not.
If stocks rallied today is all well? if it is does the Fed need to ease?
If the Fed does ease before year end, how much. 25bp? What does that do? Will lenders jump back in with no standard lending and all is well, and the housing market starts rising again.
If the Fed drops all the way to 4% as some (numb nuts) are calling for, what message does that send?
After tomorrow the Fed only meets 3 more times before year end.
A 125 bp decrease is significant easing on the Fed’a part, again not enough to save the houisng market, but more than enough to scare the street.
Seems to me the Street is in a no win situation with what it wants, or what it perceives the Fed’s actions should be.
I still stay with my no Fed easing call until 1st quarter 08 at the earliest.
“If the Fed drops all the way to 4% as some (numb nuts) are calling for, what message does that send?”
3b,
The message to me would be that the fed is in panic mode.
#222; BC: Precisely, and again for those who think otherwise, this would not help the housing market,which is what some posters here and others are hoping, or should I say praying for.
There is really no reason now to buy a house if one does not really absolutely have to. Better prices are on their way;shortly.
Three things from the fed;
1) No change in ffr
2) Statement on inflation
3) Statement on credit markets
Even if Bennie Boy gives his speech from a helicopter saying ‘yes, 25 bps more’ to the drunken sailors below, does it matter? They’re trapped on board no matter what.
125 bps cut? USD-Euro off the 1.4 handle, anyone?
njpatient Says:
August 6th, 2007 at 4:38 pm
In which Jim Cramer explains that RE is in great shape, and homebuilders and lenders are doing just fine (end of ‘06).
LOVE THE BOOYA REFERENCES!!!!!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWksEJQEYVU
#204
the house in Glen Rock that Wells Fargo is asking $675k for, sold in December 2005 for $800k.
Saw that, Theo. Can you believe it? Who got suckered into that buying that house? If you look on zillow, the map shows it completely dwarfs the neighbor’s house by so much that it looks as if the neighbor’s house is actually the guest house.
I get the sense maybe it was put up after somebody tore a small house down? That’s the only thing I can think of. Why would anyone build a massive house at the intersection of a major road?
I wouldn’t pay a dime over 400k for that house. And even then, the location is awful (which is sad, considering Glen Rock is a great town).
also, since you pointed it out, Theo, the Glen Rock house is down 16% from the SALE PRICE of 2005.
Give it another six months and it could be 20%.
“Asking prices mean nothing … where are you getting this from?
When you put your house on the market, what did you do?
You price it based on COMPS in the area, right? A house down the block sold for $850k two weeks ago, so you put your house on the market (assuming it’s comparable) for $850k.
This is why I think it’s fair to say that some houses are selling for 20% off 2005 prices.”
Bloodbath,
Last summer, I priced my house 10% HIGHER than 2005 prices because that was what 99% of the other sellers were doing. Asking prices have come down a lot since last year, but, once again, 99% of the houses are still priced HIGHER than 2005 prices. Just last week, a house in my area was withdrawn. It sold in 2005 for $810,000. It’s last listing price was $858,000.
#229
That house in Glen Rock does not count because it is a foreclosure. Let’s stick to regular sales. Foreclosures always sell for a fractrion of their regular value. A lot of times, investors will buy foreclsures and then flip them 4 months down the road.
http://www.youtube.com/comment_servlet?all_comments&v=rOVXh4xM-Ww&fromurl=/watch%3Fv%3DrOVXh4xM-Ww
LOL Here COMES THE PAIN!!!
“This is not capitulation. I want BLOOD running in the streets, I want 1992 when people would rather pay more to rent than own as Real Estate is a lousy investment. I want flipping shows to stop, I want a major money center bank going under, I want Bear to be bought in a fire sale. When that happens we will have a true bottom. All we have now is a false bottom, this is a classic bear market bear trap, you think it has hit bottom and you stick you toe in and it gets CUT OFF. Don’t BUY in 2007 or 2008.”
You are a Communist. Your the person that my mommy told me to stay away from.
I just bought 500 shares of AHM. I’m gonna be rich very soon!
Clot – Thanks.
John – I have always owned a Mac and I am not a techi. They crash less, are easy to use and easy to network. What’s not to like?
This video gave me an idea for a new game. We can call it “Spot the Renter”
http://www.switched.com/2007/08/06/hackers-turn-tables-on-dateline-operative/
What about this as a new game:
“Spot the realtor-troll” …
oh, wait – we did that one yesterday.
#223 BC Bob: Skeptical about the statement on the credit market. If he does, what do you think the statement will say?
“Foreclosures always sell for a fractrion of their regular value.”
Man, if I wasn’t over here doing my deep breathing exercises, I’d explain to Duck why the sale price on the foreclosure IS the “regular” value.
scribe, you’re in for it now, dude.
Uber Comrad Pat:
I am a dudette :)
Forececlosures do not matter that much. Statitstics have show that a foreclosure within one mile of a house only brings down it’s value by 1%.
Now I know what everyone is going to say regarding #243
Where are your links? What are your sources?
Well, here it is:
“Although some studies show that neighborhoods with strong foreclosure numbers see a rough drop of 1% in value, it’s not always due to sold value of the property. Often falling prices are due to buyers’ perception of the area, followed by a refusal to live in such neighborhoods, coupled with the previous owner’s extreme neglect of the property.”
http://homebuying.about.com/od/4closureshortsales/qt/0507-4-closeval.htm
Bloodbath,
What are you going to change your screen name to when there are no serious deals to be had this winter?
Has anyone looked at my post from the Weekend Open Discussion?
Post 191?
Lots of great sold data.
When I cut and paste it gets “tied up”.
Take a gander…
Normally I bypass this kind of boring news, but this is kind of a mysterious week.
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0640289020070806
* What: The Federal Reserve’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee meeting
* When: Aug 7; statement expected around 2:15 p.m. (1815 GMT)
* Fed expected to leave federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25 percent; focus on outlook for economy in statement
the 2:15 fed meeting could go down like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkrU7G77VZo
Kind of picture Cramer as Sonny (Pacino) there, with his mom towards the end asking why he didn’t come to her for money
Is it just me or are rents really expensive these days? I just picked on one of those “Apartmet Guides” at the supermarket and the rents for many 2 and 3 bedroom apartments today in NJ are what comparbale apartments in Manhattan were renting for only a few years ago. One of the reasons I think rents are high is that vacacancy rates are low and inventory is also low. During the boom years, TONS (empahasis on TONS) of rentals were converted to condos. It happened all over the Gold Coast. I remeber there was one very large rental building in Fort Lee that had a high vacancy rate and was on the verge of bankruptcy. Well, one day I drove past the building, and there was a huge banner on it with the words: “Luxury Condos from the Mid $300s”
Robert
no baiting…
I might change it to ‘serenity in 2008…’
get any lowballs lately?
Scribe, I never get the dudes from the dudettes straight on this board.
uber pat 252
i’m just as troubled, perhaps JB should require some ID next to the name:
(m) (M) (f) (F) (mF) (fM) (MMF) (FFM), etc.
I hope Ben raises 50 bps.
tick… tick… tick… tick…
…maybe even 75 bps. (insert evil laugh here)
Hello! great idea of color of this siyte!
Clot, KL, or Rich–
Do you have a recommendation for a realtor in Ridgewood area? We may give that price drop (and a few others) a gander in the next week or so?
My email is eagle_scout_us@yahoo.com
Thanks,
Eagle
Guys don’t plan on buying until at least 2014, its going to drop 1-3% in North Jersey basically every other year. The years with no drop will be flat since buyers will come off the sidelines (they will have gotten tired of waiting). I’m only 34 now so I have no problem waiting until 2012. I’ll be 41 and finally own my first home. YAY! Hm.. actually that kind of just depressed me, time is passing me by. :( I wish I earned 100k+ like some of these guys so I could just go buy something today. Oh well.
Housing bust until 2012 # 258,
Earning 100k isn’t enough. 3 bedroom townhomes in Bernards go for half a mill.
From Rich in NJ II 8/3 (Rich, you’re a guy, right?) and the 8/2 NJMLS Hotsheet
Cliffside Park
SLD EDGEWATER RD $610,000 9/20/2005
SLD EDGEWATER RD $529,000 8/2/2007
Closter
SLD HOMANS AVE $1,500,000 3/22/2006
SLD HOMANS AVE $1,535,000 8/1/2007
(2.3% / not even in line with inflation let alone commission and closing costs)
Old Tappan
ACT ORANGEBURGH RD $659,000 8/18/2006
SLD ORANGEBURGH RD $545,000 8/2/2007
Ridgewood
SLD S PLEASANT AVE $425,000 8/15/2002
SLD S PLEASANT AVE $495,000 8/1/2007
(3.1%/year)
ACT WALL ST $639,000 3/13/2007
SLD WALL ST $591,000 8/2/2007
ACT LOTTE RD $1,795,000 2/23/2007
SLD LOTTE RD $1,550,000 8/1/2007
This is a test of the emergency cut and paste system.
skep (153)-
Negotiate hard. Very hard.
From Rich in NJ II 8/3 (Rich, you’re a guy, right?) and the 8/2 NJMLS Hotsheet
Cliffside Park
SLD EDGEWATER RD $610,000 9/20/2005
SLD EDGEWATER RD $529,000 8/2/2007
This is a test of the emergency cut and paste system.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJYcxqjXlkc&NR=1
THE TROOOF RUN SELL DA HOUSE!
Wow, Rich in NJ, I tried to cut/paste your 191 from weekend, and can’t even do one listing. What is up with that?
Weird.
CRAAASH!!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10WoQZKZkNs&mode=related&search=
BOOOYHAAA!!!
219
I have not owned an Apple, so far and am in IT. Statements such as yours betray a narrowness of view verging on imbecility.
Does anybody know if it is illegal to ride a bicycle down 287 to the Parsippany exit?
There was this guy on his bike last night, riding down the emergency/breakdown area.
I thought that it was motor vehicle only.
Pat 256,
Sign at 287 entrance ramp in p-way says no bicycles. No horses, either, if I recall.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgtpxBPYnvE&mode=related&search=
AVALANCHE!#@$!!!@$#!@
live just north of there, see people riding their bikes from time to time on 287. Really makes no sense, since 202 runs parallel…
Real IT people don’t use Macs. Macs are for geek posers. Real IT people use one of the many flavors of UNIX/Linux.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEIc9Mi5K08&mode=related&search=
FATALITY!
2014! I suspect most people, even the unrealtors of the group arent willing to wait that long but maybe I’m wrong. Why not just be a life-long renter then you’ll never have overpaid for a house.
“Housing bust until 2012 Says:
August 6th, 2007 at 9:33 pm
Guys don’t plan on buying until at least 2014, its going to drop 1-3% in North Jersey basically every other year. The years with no drop will be flat since buyers will come off the sidelines (they will have gotten tired of waiting). I’m only 34 now so I have no problem waiting until 2012. I’ll be 41 and finally own my first home. YAY! Hm.. actually that kind of just depressed me, time is passing me by. :( I wish I earned 100k+ like some of these guys so I could just go buy something today. Oh well.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-82iJIzZKI
oooff
CRAMER IS A JACKASS
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5zAvh-iFfU
AHAHHA
Sign at 287 entrance ramp in p-way says no bicycles. No horses, either, if I recall.
Damn, then how come I see so many mustangs?!
Zing!
Troll (231)-
“Foreclosures always sell for a fractrion [sic] of their regular value.”
Once again, just plain wrong.
Go get an EEG done & post the results here. I’m gonna guess you have the equivalent of about three mini-strokes an hour.
Troll (242)-
“Statitstics have show that a foreclosure within one mile of a house only brings down it’s value by 1%.”
Source?
Of course not.
Troll (243)-
Nice sandbag. That may be the first time you actually offered up facts here.
bust (258)-
Do you stab yourself in the arm with a fork when you get bored or have some time to kill?
I’m not a raging uber-bull, but there comes a point where the waiting game becomes excessive. The only person getting hurt in that weird self-denial scenario would be you.
bust out in 2012 #258
that a wild notion
For some reason I have this vision of gray, sallow creatures emerging from their bunkers in five years asking me if it’s over.
269
I am constantly amazed by the religious fervor expressed concerning OS choice. It’s so funny to see in an IT ‘professional’.
OS wars are how geeks have fun.
w1nd0ze sUx0R!!!!!
>>can we resume the policy of ignoring Robert and Bi? they add nothing to the discussion
sure ignore those who don’t think and feel as you do. they should rename this blog the sheeple board.
>>I wouldn’t pay a dime over 400k for that house. And even then, the location is awful (which is sad, considering Glen Rock is a great town).
enjoy renting the rest of your life. must be fun being pompous throwing around what you’d pay when all you’d get from your offers is a laugh in the face.
Richard, don’t scoff..prepare. An ill wind is blowing your way.
Inventory is backing up again over here in Bucks. Sellers are getting nervous.
My relatives in Orange County are seeing foreclosures….never thought that would happen. But at least Grandma won’t have to smell the dog poop anymore from the losers next door who’ve been renting from the bank since ’05. The’re getting ejected.
North Jersey’s getting sandwiched. Squeezed like a hot dog on a fresh potato roll.
Comrades,
Da! I too have trouble doing the cut & paste of the sold data from the yesterdays.
Hopefully when our premier returns the collective will run more smoothly!
SOLIDARITY!
Cliffside Park home on Edgewater Rd sold for $610,000 on 9/20/2005
Sold again on 8/2/2007 for $529,000
Comrade Rich in NNJ,
The members of the Central Committee wish to thank you for your postings, which are always most refreshing because of their highly factual nature.
Rich is a suck-up.
Uber comrade Pat:
I am also unclear on whether you are a dude or dudette, but I think you’re a dudette.
Please inform me, if I have mis-sexed you :)
And, now on a more serious note:
CBS was running ads tonight for a segment on Katie Couric’s show tomorrow:
What if you want to buy or sell, but financing has dried up?
Pat
Dudette. I had to check the plumbing.
Bear Stearns Caymans Filing May Hurt Bankrupt Funds’ Creditors
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awRQv0XawGk0&refer=home
Jacking rates on the jumbo too for people with great credit. That combined with some towns have luxery taxes on home sales over a million and jacked taxes on seven figure homes should help dent the high end I hope.
#273, that’s beautiful.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5zAvh-iFfU
Fed Announcement – Fed leaves rate unchanged @ 5.25 %.- ADS
100k a month to live in Alpine is more like it.
8hyjbt5pjles http://www.561790.com/191213.html v5xvho03tmlgmx2qs