July Otteau Report

From the Otteau Valuation Group:


The decline in the housing market which began during the 2nd half of 2005 is evidenced by the rising tide of unsold homes on the market. While there are many contributing factors, the supply of competing properties is paramount as it creates a ‘mood of the market’ which determines whether home buyers feel any sense of urgency. For example, as Unsold Inventory declines and a buyer’s choices diminish they are inclined to purchase sooner rather than later driving inventory even lower and home prices higher in the process. Conversely, rising inventory extends normal marketing time causing home sellers to reduce their asking price. In this rising tide environment home buyers adopt a ‘wait & see’ stance due to concern about falling home prices, leading to further increases in Unsold Inventory and thus creating a downward spiral. Any reverse of this cycle is then predicated upon a decline in Unsold Inventory. While this is admittedly a simplistic view which does not take into account corresponding demand factors, the bottom line is that the housing market can not improve significantly until Unsold Inventory declines. And the first step toward inventory decline is for it to stop rising.

The New Jersey housing market provided a glimmer of hope in July as Unsold Inventory declined for the first time since January. That this decline accounted for less than a 1% reduction in Unsold Inventory makes it clear that the housing recession is far from over and will continue into 2008. However, should inventory hold at its present level would signal the ‘beginning of the end’ for the housing recession.

The July housing market also saw an increase in contract-sales activity on a seasonally adjusted basis. As demonstrated in the NEW JERSEY CONTRACT-SALES ACTIVITY chart, July sales were higher than one year ago confirming that while the housing market is weak it still has life. No surprise here as despite the decline in sales activity over the past 2 years the underlying demand for housing is still bubbling beneath the surface. This is because life goes on with continuing household formation, marriages, the birth of children, job promotions, divorce and retirement all leading to changing housing needs which translates into housing demand. Thus, the stage is being set for a rebound in the housing market once the current challenges sort themselves out.

From a market absorption perspective, the Unsold Inventory presently reflects a 9.0 month inventory of homes as compared to 8.9 months in June. This however compares to a 4.0 month supply in July 2005 suggesting that inventory is currently about double where it needs to be before home prices will start rising again. This is important to would-be home sellers who are considering waiting things out before selling their present homes as any rise in home prices is likely several years off.

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91 Responses to July Otteau Report

  1. James Bednar says:

    From NJBIZ:

    The Subprime Mess and the Garden State

    New Jersey has plenty at stake in the collapse of the subprime mortgage market that has set off a worldwide credit crunch and spread panic through Wall Street. The state’s economy is closely linked to the financial services sector, which has been hit hard by the crisis. So far this month an estimated 20,000 U.S. financial employees have lost jobs.
    Not since the Asian currency woes of a decade ago have jitters spread so rapidly. The Federal Reserve and its overseas counterparts soothed investors at that time by pumping funds into the global economy, something the central banks have been trying again this time.

    But the impact of the Fed’s reduction of the so-called discount rate on its loans remains in question. Investors have viewed the two-week-old move as mainly a sign that the Fed would cut the more consequential federal funds rate—the interest commercial banks charge one another for overnight loans—at or before its upcoming Sept. 18 meeting.

    The big question is whether the current financial mess could push the country into a recession—something most economists still consider unlikely. The economy showed good growth in the second quarter and entered the second half with strong momentum. But U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warned last week that the global turbulence is far from over.

    That spells more risk for New Jersey as the subprime fiasco continues to rattle Wall Street and the firms whose paychecks and bonuses many state residents depend on. There’s little the Garden State can do about this predicament except hope for a decent outcome.

  2. Grc says:

    Home Sales Drop 0.2 Percent in July

    Monday, August 27, 2007 5:19 PM

    (AP) Home Sales Drop 0.2 Percent in July

    AP Economics Writer


    Sales of existing homes dropped for a fifth straight month in July, while the number of unsold homes shot up to a record level.

    Many analysts said the worst slump in housing in 16 years is likely to deepen in coming months, reflecting the recent turmoil in credit markets, which has caused lenders to tighten their standards.

    The National Association of Realtors reported Monday that sales of existing homes dipped by 0.2 percent in July, compared to June, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.75 million units.

    The median price of a home sold last month slid to $230,200, down by 0.6 percent from the median price a year ago. It marked the 12th consecutive month that home prices have declined, a record stretch.

    On Wall Street, stocks retreated on Monday after the housing report renewed concerns about the strength of the economy. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 56.74 points to close at 13,322.13.

    The deep slump in housing, combined with recent severe turmoil in financial markets, has raised worries about a possible recession. But many economists believe the Federal Reserve will ward off a full-blown downturn by reducing a key short-term interest rate should financial market conditions fail to stabilize.

    But economists said the report on existing home sales signaled further trouble ahead, given a big jump in the inventory of unsold homes which rose by 5.1 percent to a record level of 4.59 million homes.

    Based on the July sales pace, it would take 9.2 months to exhaust the number of single-family homes on the market, the highest level in nearly 16 years, and 11.9 months to exhaust the level of condominiums on the market. The months supply of condos sitting on the market is 45.1 percent higher than a year ago.

    The rising glut of unsold homes is putting downward pressure on prices. The median price of an existing home, the point where half of homes sold for more and half for less, has now fallen every month for a year, something that has not occurred before on Realtors’ records going back to 1969. Economists said to expect more price declines in coming months.

    “We are literally swimming in an ocean of homes for sale,” said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst with Weiss Research Inc. “Until we work through this extremely large inventory glut, we’re not going to see any momentum in home prices.”

    Analysts said the financial market turbulence that has occurred in August will mean further downward pressure on home sales as big investors such as hedge funds grow more leery about purchasing mortgages that have been packaged into securities for fear that the rising number of defaults will mean they won’t get repaid.

    Even before the latest market turbulence, banks and other lenders were tightening up on their loan standards in response to rising delinquencies, especially on subprime loans extended to borrowers with weak credit histories.

    “With fewer buyers qualifying for loans and lots of unsold houses out there, that makes a choice recipe for further sales declines this fall and into the winter,” said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC

    Hoffman said there is a growing threat that the severe slump in housing and sagging consumer confidence will weigh on consumer spending in the second half of this year, presenting a significant risk to the overall economy. But he said he believed the country would be able to avoid an outright recession because the Federal Reserve will decide at its next meeting on Sept. 18 to cut the federal funds rate, the key benchmark rate for millions of consumer and business loans.

    Hoffman said he expected the September Fed rate cut would be the first of several as the central bank steps up its efforts to combat the current turbulence. The Fed in the past two weeks has supplied the banking system with billions of dollars to encourage banks to keep making loans and on Aug. 17 announced a half-point cut in its discount rate, the interest it charges to make direct loans to banks.

    Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., said the latest housing report showed the need for Congress to increase efforts to deal with the potential flood of foreclosures that are being projected over the next two years as nearly 2 million homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages experience payment shocks as their loans reset in a weakening housing market.

    “We need to deal with widespread uncertainty in the mortgage market and help to refinance borrowers who were duped into bad loans,” said Schumer, who is sponsoring legislation to boost federal support for mortgage counseling services.

    The 0.2 percent drop in July sales, compared with activity in June, marked the fifth straight monthly decline and left sales 9 percent below the level of a year ago. The sales pace was the slowest since November 2002.

    By region of the country, sales fell by 2.2 percent in the Midwest and were unchanged in the South. Sales rose by 1.8 percent in the West and 1 percent in the Northeast.

    Lawrence Yun, senior economist for the Realtors, said he viewed the rise in sales in the Northeast as a potentially hopefully sign of a national rebound since that was the region where sales and prices first started falling after a five-year boom which ended in 2006.

  3. James Bednar says:

    From Newsday:

    Newark to cut nearly 300 jobs because of budget deficit

    J. – New Jersey’s largest city is looking to eliminate 200 jobs and to leave 95 jobs unfilled as it seeks to close a $15 million budget gap.

    Officials say the moves will save Newark about $17 million.

    Mayor Cory Booker says the plan provides the least amount of pain for residents and avoids a tax increase for 2008.

    An additional 203 city employees have accepted a voluntary buyout, saving the city $13 million.

    Officials are looking at other ways to close the remaining budget gap.

    The city is asking the state Personnel Department to review the plan. The state can approve it, reject it or ask for modifications.

    Employees will be notified next month with layoffs planned for mid-November.

  4. hoodafa says:

    A $200,000 ‘loss’ – and happy with it

    Century 21 CEO’s home is worth 15% less than when he turned down a cash offer in ’04, but he’s focusing on the gain.

    “It’s certainly a heck of a lot easier now being a buyer now than in ’06 or ’05,” he said. “The question is how much easier will it be a year or two from now. I tend to think the downturn has at least until the back half of next year to run, perhaps into ’09.

    More at: http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/27/news/economy/kunz_homesale/index.htm?cnn=yes

  5. Bloodbath in Winter 2007 says:

    I can’t believe it’s been a week and not one reporter has penned this story:


    – Jumbo mortgage rates through the roof at 7.5 (journalist should show what the mortgage would look like if you bought a $600,000 with only 10% down)

    – Wait … where are Americans going to get 10% down for the houses in the 600k-1 mil range? (then show national savings rate of -1% or whatever it is)

    – then, the ultimate breakdown (very tough to accomplish): who NEEDS to sell vs. who WANTS to sell?

    Right now, i think the No. 1 key to the real estate mess is whether or not rates on JUMBO mortgages go down. If they don’t, bagholders are in deep do-do. If they do … some may be spared. Because we all know that very few americans have 10% to put down on a 600k house. That’s assuming the credit is spotless.

  6. BC Bob says:

    “This is because life goes on with continuing household formation, marriages, the birth of children, job promotions, divorce and retirement all leading to changing housing needs which translates into housing demand.”

    What about job relocation, job losses, divorce, retirement and scaling down leading to increases in supply? Life goes on for sellers also.

  7. crossroads says:

    “This is important to would-be home sellers who are considering waiting things out before selling their present homes as any rise in home prices is likely several years off”.

    otteau doesn’t seem to want to touch the fact that resets over the next year could cause prices to fall even further.

  8. James Bednar says:

    S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index due out at 9am tomorrow.

    Very excited!


  9. James Bednar says:

    From FT:

    Barclays faces scrutiny over Sachsen links

    Barclays has been left with an exposure worth several hundred million dollars to failed debt vehicles created by its investment banking arm amid growing scrutiny over its links to Sachsen LB, the failed German public sector bank.

    The UK bank provided back-up financing to one of four structured investment vehicles set up by Barclays Capital, people familiar with the matter said, leaving it with an exposure in the “low hundreds of millions of dollars”.

    News of Barclays’ exposure will ease concerns among investors about its potential losses arising from the vehicles, known as SIV-lites. However, the bank’s relationship with Sachsen is likely to face scrutiny after it emerged that Barclays had set up a SIV-lite on the German bank’s behalf less than three months before it collapsed.

    In May, Barclays set up a SIV-lite on Sachsen’s behalf. The vehicle, Sachsen Funding 1, had assets of about $3bn, the vast majority of which was invested in securities backed by prime and subprime US mortgages. Standard & Poor’s, the credit rating agency, last week placed Sachsen Funding 1 on review for a possible downgrade, warning that it might have to wind down if it could not access sufficient liquidity.

  10. dreamtheaterr says:

    Sorry for the repeat post, but I posted this in the other thread just before the new Otteau post, and would appreciate some thoughts:

    “Question to folks on board: how are property taxes increases playing into your calculations for housing affordability? As a percentage of principal + interest payment, it is already quite high in NJ. But 7-10 years out, it’s going to be obscene. How do you wrap your head around this monster?

    I mean, it’s crazy to think that you’ve locked in a 30 yr FRM, only to have property taxes eviscerate the benefits of a FRM.”

  11. pcurve says:

    Not sure if anybody can answer this… but here’s a question:

    If the market here goes down maybe 2%/year in real terms for the next 7-8 years, is it worth it for a first time home buyers to wait it out that long? Assuming you don’t care either way about renting vs owning, at what point does the benefit of tax deduction outweigh the benefit of waiting?


    (According to the Sacramento Flippers in Trouble blog, it seems like they are taking 25-40% baths on their investments. Is there a similar blog for NJ? Like New Jersey Flippers in Trouble? Maybe it’s the relative dearth of land in NJ, but I don’t think there will be a meltdown like in Sacramento, like there wasn’t one in the early 90s.)

  12. syncmaster says:

    … any rise in home prices is likely several years off.

    Has anyone ever tracked old Otteau predictions with current reality to gauge his accuracy? Might be interesting to see what he was saying about Jersey in mid 05 and early 06 and see how it aligns with reality today.

  13. Essex says:

    speaking of taxes, we rented in Morris Co. but the homes were marked up to $650k and in Essex Co. we found we got more home for the money….but you pay some healthy property taxes in Essex…Location, location, location.

  14. syncmaster says:

    how are property taxes increases playing into your calculations for housing affordability? As a percentage of principal + interest payment, it is already quite high in NJ. But 7-10 years out, it’s going to be obscene. How do you wrap your head around this monster?

    You wrap your head around it by realizing that taxes go up everywhere. Nominal values may be higher in NJ (for no good reason, it seems) but there’s no fixed monthly payment anywhere. I have friends in Texas who say their taxes have gone up an average of 10% annually for the last 5-6 years.

  15. BC Bob says:

    “but you pay some healthy property taxes in Essex…Location, location, location.”


    Not so much location, more you’re feeding an endless pit, Newark.

  16. BC Bob says:


    I have been saying this for a long time. I will have the opportunity to buy at 30-40% off 2005. That’s the easy part. Of more concern, at least to me, is the state of the state.

  17. Rich In NNJ says:

    …while the housing market is weak it still has life.

    More like a final death kick.

    …the underlying demand for housing is still bubbling beneath the surface. This is because life goes on with continuing household formation, marriages, the birth of children, job promotions, divorce…

    Was this pont necessary? Are his clients THAT worried?
    Of course there will ALWAYS be demand. It’s a matter of HOW MUCH demand.
    And the same “life reasons” that “translate” into “housing demand” are also the same reasons that many will have to sell. ANd having to sell will force many to cut their expectations and price.


  18. Rich In NNJ says:

    I’m a typo king!
    See what happens when the most consecutive hours of sleep max out a 5 after 6 weeks.
    You should see me drive…

  19. Clotpoll says:

    sync (14)-

    Here’s Otteau from March, 2006. Seems so…well…2006:


    If you’re looking for a positive sign in the New Jersey housing market you can take some comfort in knowing that increase in contract-sales activity from December to January was slightly greater than the month-to-month increase of 1 year ago. Despite relative improvement however, sales activity in January ran 12% less than January 2005 indicating that the weakness in the residential market which began in October has carried over into 2006. Further evidence that the market has softened comes from the continuing increase of unsold inventory which grew by more than 2,000 homes in January and now stands 46% higher than 1 year ago. Home buyers will clearly have much more to say in determining the selling price of a home in 2006 than was the case last year.

    Despite these signs, the Spring Market will arrive, although later than we’ve grown accustomed to in recent years. Look for the Spring rally to start in late March once home buyers realize that the long predicted collapse in housing prices won’t occur and as climbing mortgage interest rates bring some urgency back into the home buying equation.

    With all the increased competition on the market this year, the appearance of a home will play a greater role in determining marketing success. Items such as condition, décor, and curb appeal will take on greater significance as home buyers have a wider selection of competing homes from which to choose. Attend our Spring Workshop Series and learn about “staging” a home to stand out in a crowd.

    Fun as this little exercise may be, it’s patently unfair to hold anyone in RE to past “best guesses”. I’m sure we could all dredge up predictions made here that have gone terribly awry.

    Heck, bi makes two or three of them daily.

  20. Essex says:

    I’m not sure ‘where’ the money goes….NJ is a notoriously corrupt state, so I am sure that tax dollars have lined the pockets of elected officials.

    Essex Co. as a place to live, is very nice….love the location, the architecture, and the amenities….Morris Co. is lovely, quieter, and a little boring. You decide.

  21. syncmaster says:

    Clot #21,

    … the long predicted collapse in housing prices won’t occur

    This turned out to be true. Prices went down but there hasn’t been a collapse (yet).

  22. Clotpoll says:

    sync (23)-

    The collapse is nigh.

  23. Clotpoll says:

    Hey ChiFi,

    Heard the BAC “totally hedged on CFC” rumor again today. If true, that might’ve insulated them against this little hiccup:


  24. syncmaster says:

    Clot #24,

    Just out of curiosity, in your mind how much of a decline in what period of time constitutes a ‘collapse’?

  25. Richard says:

    >>Of course there will ALWAYS be demand. It’s a matter of HOW MUCH demand.

    that’s why you always pick location first. you can fix up the house but you can’t move it.

  26. BC Bob says:

    “This turned out to be true. Prices went down but there hasn’t been a collapse (yet).”


    You are actually kidding, right? Although, this is/will be an unprecendented bust, nobody has said that prices will crash overnight. This is not the stock market where prices are marked to the market. How about an average decline of 4-6% over a period of 5-7 years, peak-trough? Yeah, I know I’m crazy. However, if you stop looking backwards and picture the storm that has hit this market and is continuing to pick up speed, it’s not unrealistic at all. There has not been one bubble in the history of the markets that did not end in a bust. This market will be no different.

  27. Clotpoll says:

    sync (26)-

    20% down from today’s levels within the next 12 months.

  28. Clotpoll says:

    sync (26)-

    One could make the argument that the jumbo meltdown and repricing of those loans is a de facto 20% haircut in that market segment. The next few months will be about sellers in that range coming to grips with the cold reality.

  29. Clotpoll says:

    reech (27)-

    Thanks for that blatantly self-serving news.

    The virus won’t miss Brigadoon. I promise.

  30. BC Bob says:


    I think you have stated that present day sales are 10-15% off 2005. If this is correct, you’re saying an additional 20% off today in 12 Months? 30-35% off 2005 by the 4th quarter of 2008? I didn’t realize that I was so bullish.

  31. Essex says:

    The key in this economy is holding onto whatever jobs you have (if you work)…and simply riding this out. I can tell you that another unforeseen attack like a 9/11 will be a major catastrophy, and then there is that bird flu….I’m just gonna stay inside and lock my door.

  32. dreamtheaterr says:

    #29, Clot

    When you mentioned 20% off a month or two back, I was a bit befuddled sice you seemed to turn bearish on the flip of a switch as Toll would say, as opposed to Chinese water torture declines you and (I think) BCBob referred to since last winter. I now understand and appreciate where you were coming from as to these price declines actually happening, as in the build up to the perfect storm.

    Thank you for educating so many of us (the ones with open ears); it is appreciated.

    It’s one thing for people to lose 20% of their investment portfolio. But to lose 20% on an asset leveraged atleast 5x and a chunk of some people’s net worth is going to cause a lot of sleepless nights for many.

  33. Bubble Burst says:

    In the spring, our realtor told us that they advise all of their clients to not put their house on the market in the summer (At the time, they probably had no idea about what was going to happen in the mortgage market because they were in denial as they usually are)

    Recently they have come out with some “exclusive listings” which allows them to market the houses without the house getting added to mls which starts the clock ticking for “days on market” which really makes no sense to me.

    These listings will get added after labor day with all of the other typical fall listings and all of the listings that were withdrawn in the summer. Then you have the ARM resets (delinquencies) and foreclosures. These factors will lead to a huge spike in inventory by the end of the year to a level that is already bloated today.

  34. New Home Owner says:

    Question for the renters… how much money have you thrown away in rent since not buying in 2005? How much money will you continue to give the old man that owns the apartment until 2009 when you are ready to buy? Do these figures combined add up to 10-20% off the price of the house you are planning to buy? Just curious.

  35. Bubble Burst says:

    Did Otteau mention anything about the current mortgage market (tightening credit and higher rates)???

  36. sas says:

    Otteau report is propaganda.

    How many English and Psych majors does he have on the bankroll?

    This guys is talking out the side of his mouth, and I can’t tell if he is laughing or crying.

    he he… yea ; )

    all my best,

  37. Bubble Burst says:


    Assuming you put 10-20% down, which is a big assumption in the last real estate boom, the 10-20% price decline you mentioned would wipe out your enitre equity investment which is presumably your hard earned savings. Renting vs carry costs in owning (interest, property taxes, insurance, maintenance) would be about the same (or possibly more) so you are not “throwing anything away” by renting now. Your hard earned savings is making money for you instead of risking it by making a downpayment in depreciating asset.

  38. Clotpoll says:

    BC (32)-

    That’s what I’m saying. You wouldn’t believe how far under the competition I had to position my latest set of sold listings in order to get them under contract.

    When you guys see some of the prices on the trickle of homes that have gone under contract in the past 2 weeks, it’s gonna blow your minds. F*&k asking price, selling price is all that matters. Sellers with crack-smoking prices probably haven’t gotten a showing since July 1. I say let ’em rot.

    I now also have a gang of sellers, who, for a variety of reasons, are out of time. More importantly, they’re out of stomach for this market. I did two massive price reductions this weekend…one of which placed a solid 4 BR home on 1/2 acre into the price range of some townhouses around the corner.

  39. RentinginNJ says:

    Question for the renters… how much money have you thrown away in rent since not buying in 2005?

    A lot less than 2005 buyers have throw away between closing costs, mortgage interest payments, property taxes & maintenance. If 2005 first time brought a down payment to the table, they probably lost a chunk of that too due to falling home values.

    If they make a down payment, there is a good chance they are underwater. Meaning, if they go to sell, they will need to bring a check to the closing for the privilege of paying twice what I paid in rent in 2005 to live in the same place.

  40. syncmaster says:

    BC Bob #28 – all I was saying was that a ‘collapse’ in prices hasn’t happened yet. The empirical evidence so far (NAR, OFHEO) all points to that conclusion. That doesn’t mean a collapse won’t happen.

    Clot #29 – 20% in 12 months? I can live with that. We’ll see.

  41. sas says:

    ” how much money have you thrown away in rent since not buying in 2005?”

    or we can ask

    “how much has the value of RE gone down since 05?”

    SAS’s lawyer tactic ; )

  42. Clotpoll says:

    dream (34)-

    As I’ve mentioned many times here, I’ve had a ringside seat at two RE busts. I know the drill, and when all the indicators started lining up at the end of the Spring market (that is, the market that wasn’t), it became obvious to me the death watch was on.

    What has happened since then is that multiple accelerants have been tossed into the bonfire…the biggest of which is the rapid seizure of the credit markets. Unavailability of financing, higher rates and tougher terms on the loans that do remain available bring the affordability issue right back to the front burner.

    Quite simply, virtually no one can afford- nor do they really care to buy- housing in this area right now. As Otteau mentioned, lack of urgency has left the buyer side.

    Well, it’s got to go somewhere. And, we all know where that “somewhere” is.

  43. sas says:

    “Question for the renters… how much money have you thrown away in rent since not buying in 2005?”

    renters can jump off a ship that has been sinking since summer 05. Anyone who bought in the past 3 years, they are chained to the boat and are sinking…. but these RE sellers can’t be saved, because you can’t free a slave whom loves his chains.


  44. sas says:

    But, I did see a good deal on a house in Milburn the other day ; )


  45. Bubble Burst says:

    The mess in this market is embedded in the renting vs owning question. People put little or no money down so they didn’t factor it into their analysis. Going forward you will have to put at least 10%-20% down which you could risk losing by buying now.

    Why would you risk your hard earned savings before the market stabilized?

  46. syncmaster says:

    Add on to that the fact (IMO) that Wall Street is about to take a massive sh1t….. kiss the Wall Street bonus driven market bye bye.

  47. t c m says:

    #36 new homeowner –

    i can’t speak for all renters, but i consider property taxes, interest payments on the mort., and loss of interest on my downpayment as money thrown away. i also take int account all the tax ramifications as well. (the only thing that is not thrown away is principle payments). considering this, it is far far cheaper – by a long shot – for me to rent and equal size space. so whatever i lose to the landlord is small compared to what i lose to the bank and in property tax.

    i’m not even including closing costs, maintenance and repairs, or loss of value on the house.

  48. jmacdaddio says:

    I would say I’ve spent about 30 grand in rent from 2005 to now. The condos I wanted were listed for 250k then, and now I’m looking at potential winter lowball purchases in the neighborhood of 210k. I may even be able to put 20% down. Back then I would have had to use a crazy mortgage scheme to get into an overpriced property, lived on ramen until a year ago, then spent the last 12 months sweating over my ARM increase. No thanks, I’ll make my move when I’m good and ready.

  49. sas says:

    To my dear 05 home buyers,

    Someone is on the bankers treadmill?


  50. Everything's 'boken says:

    This is a very old, tired argument and has been covered here endless times. Please come up with something new, or at least interesting.

  51. dreamtheaterr says:

    “Question for the renters… how much money have you thrown away in rent since not buying in 2005?”

    Flip the question in 2009-10 into “How much money have you thrown away by purchasing in 2005?”

    Since 2005, our cost of renting has been 43-45% of what house ownership costs would have been till date if we bought. Every month, I bank almost 90% more because of this differential, but it will reduce as prices soften further.

    As a result, I eat only top quality Ramen these days.

  52. Clotpoll says:

    Burst (35)-

    First, that Realtor (or that company) should be put against a wall and shot. I cannot imagine a marketing approach that could disadvantage a seller more.

    Second, I think your take on inventory is spot on. We are already experiencing a surge in inventory, at a time of year when listings usually begin a seasonal downswing. Much of my “20% off iin 12 months” thesis revolves around inventory continuing to swell in the Sept-Feb. window. Add the complicating factors of tight/no credit, rising foreclosures and buyer indifference, and you’ve got your “perfect storm”.

  53. syncmaster says:

    dream, aren’t you Indian? They have Maggi at the stores in Oak Tree these days. So much better than Ramen.

  54. sas says:

    “kiss the Wall Street bonus driven market bye bye”

    forget the bonus, the layoffs are coming.

    Watch the DOW.
    Market psychology might be shifting??
    It may be a little too early to tell.


  55. HOUSE OF PAIN says:

    The Ground Zero of the housing mess

    50% OFF NEW HOME PRICE !!!!!!!!

    Aug.27: Just how bad is it for homebuilders right now? CNBC’s Jane Wells reports from a Beazer development in Beaumont, Calif.

    Watch this video: http://video.msn.com/v/us/msnbc.htm?f=00&g=0961374f-410c-46f8-982b-57ad12e0402d&p=Source_CNBC&t=s55&rf=http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20461630/&fg=

  56. dreamtheaterr says:

    Sync, Maggi got me through 7 years of military-like high school where they served awful food. And 3 years of undergrad too. So I am very loyal to it.

    I never EVER visit Edison; no need to have some women elbowing me in line at a grocery store so that they can cut ahead of me.

  57. Clotpoll says:

    boken (52)-

    I did a very realistic rent vs. own arbitrage scenario on one of my sellers’ houses on Friday.

    He hasn’t spoken to me since.

    If he fires me, that’s ok. He’s road kill, probably past the point of rescue.

  58. Bubble Burst says:


    Layoffs are a real possibility. Most of the I-banks are completely shut for business in the leverage finance world right now since they can’t hold any more loans on their books and they can’t originate to sell.

    The DOW is set for a big fall in the Fall (post labor day). People are taking vacations now and putting off the inevitable for as long as possible. Notice that volume is down recently . Wait until all of the hedge hogs have to sell due to redemptions, marks and margin calls. There is also a huge Put hedge out there.

  59. syncmaster says:

    dream #57,

    I go to Edison and am surprised by how quickly I start acting Indian. I elbow right back, push, shove and drive like I’m in Mumbai.

    Then I come back to Pway and say I’m never going to Edison again.

    Until the next time…

  60. Clotpoll says:

    dream (57)-

    All that sh*t is full of MSG and other junk that makes you feel like you’re gonna stop breathing. I can’t eat a cup of that stuff without getting head rushes.

    And I prefer to get my head rushes by listening to Dave Gahan and Megadeth (LOL!).

  61. Clotpoll says:

    dream (57)-

    Where can I get a decent piece of goat for roasting or braising?

  62. Essex says:

    Who knew these people were buying homes with beads and chickens?

  63. jmacdaddio says:

    Check craigslist ads for housing, apartments, and furniture for sale and you will find a lot of Indians who are going back to India. Probably not in enough numbers to affect housing inventories outside of say, Iselin or South Brunswick.

  64. sas says:

    yes, I think Oct may get pretty ugly for the St.

    Thats fine by me. I love to see blood on the street, makes me feel like Rambo.

    damn, I love that movie. The first one, not the sissy sequals.


  65. chicagofinance says:

    syncmaster Says:
    August 27th, 2007 at 11:26 pm
    dream #57, I go to Edison and am surprised by how quickly I start acting Indian. I elbow right back, push, shove and drive like I’m in Mumbai.

    sync & yan: the toughest MF’ers I’ve ever met on public transportation are old chinese women at the Main Street stop on the #7 train. Small, mobile, ruthless, and nastier than a rabid dog if cornered. I swear they would stick a umbrella up your posterior to get a seat, and if they stand over you, they wouldn’t think twice about letting a cockroach fall in your lap.

  66. chicagofinance says:

    grim: unmoderate….great, I have to wait until 6AM.

  67. Bubble Burst says:


    Tough day for Arthur Blank:

    Suspended Vick after pushing his wheelchair a few years ago and saying he would be a “Falcon for life”

    Had to eat an 18% reduction in purchase price for Home Depot supply

    Hope he isn’t trying to sell his house.

  68. sas says:

    “Indians who are going back to India”

    I have to disagree with you on that one.


  69. chicagofinance says:

    August 27th, 2007 at 11:26 pm
    dream #57, I go to Edison and am surprised by how quickly I start acting Indian. I elbow right back, push, shove and drive like I’m in Mumbai.

    sync & yan: the toughest MF’ers I’ve ever met on public transportation are old chinese women at the Main Street stop on the #7 train. Small, mobile, ruthless, and nastier than a rabid dog if cornered. I swear they would stick a umbrella up your posterior to get a seat, and if they stand over you, they wouldn’t think twice about letting a roach fall in your lap.

  70. chicagofinance says:

    I guess it was the full version of roach that did it.

  71. syncmaster says:

    chicagofinance LOL.

    I’m still not sure why the full form of Pway gets stuck in moderation.

  72. sas says:

    That Michael Vick…

    What a f*cking piece of sh*t.


  73. chicagofinance says:

    It’s only the first 90 seconds, but behold the gloom………

  74. sas says:

    In any case,

    interesting moves on CBOT today. Interesting Hx on the soybeans.

    At this point, I think ur better off investing in soybeans than RE in NJ.


  75. sas says:

    shytown 73,

    That sound was awful.



  76. chicagofinance says:

    sas Says:
    August 27th, 2007 at 11:49 pm
    shytown 73, That sound was awful. ;) SAS

    Better than carpet bombing?

  77. chicagofinance says:

    sas Says:
    August 27th, 2007 at 11:45 pm
    That Michael Vick… What a f*cking piece of sh*t. SAS

    Did you read the indictment? Insane.

  78. Bubble Burst says:

    The indictment was almost as bad as Otteau’s report

  79. sas says:


    The Fall nights are the best nights for warm milk & Cognac.


  80. chicagofinance says:

    Bubble Burst Says:
    August 27th, 2007 at 11:54 pm
    The indictment was almost as bad as Otteau’s report

    He’s begining to bug me. I know that grim has to be nice to him out of necessity, but I think he is an Ottheaule.

  81. sas says:

    “Better than carpet bombing?”

    he he ;) good one.
    u got me on that one.


  82. Bubble Burst says:


    Thats a good one

  83. chicagofinance says:

    Is this a Deion Sanders reference or Dickie V?

    As Bernanke Retreats, Critics Ask Is He Prime Time

  84. sas says:


    that was one hell of a night.
    Over scotch and a splash of water, I’ll tell you all about it.


  85. chicagofinance says:

    Wow…who has worse timing? Lereah and his noxious insult to publishing, or these losers?


  86. chicagofinance says:

    sas Says:
    August 28th, 2007 at 12:04 am
    shytown,that was one hell of a night.
    Over scotch and a splash of water, I’ll tell you all about it. SAS

    Throw in a Cohiba and I’m game ;)

  87. Bloodbath in Winter 2007 says:

    The indians and the italians are one thing … the old jewish women on the subway are another.

  88. Comrade 3b says:

    #6 BC Bob: Actually according to the census dept hosuehild formation in the 25 to 34 age group (if I remember correctly), has dropped dramatically. We discussed it on this site a few weeks ago.

  89. dreamtheaterr says:

    #62 Clot, as a kid, I got my head rushes growing up to Iron Maiden and Megadeth. Nowadays, I have sobered up and get my kicks from Dream Theater. They did tour with Megadeth year before last.

    #63 Clot, you could try a Pakistani store to get good goat meat. They also cut it very well.

    #67 Chifi, please don’t remind me of the #7 train. I suffered on it from Flushing to Grand Central for one entire year. Also, thanks for the link to the solo music; my wife is a HUGE fan of Depeche Mode and she’ll love it!

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