From the New York Times:
Departures for Other States Erode New Jersey’s Economy
The net number of people leaving New Jersey for other states has more than tripled since 2002, and if the trend continues, the state’s total population could dip next year for the first time in decades, researchers at Rutgers University are reporting today.
The pattern — caused in part by the growing number of retirees who move to Sun Belt states, and working families who seek better jobs and cheaper homes in North Carolina, Georgia and other Southern states — threatens to further erode the state’s wobbly economy.
“Young families raising children want to live in single-family homes, and that’s extraordinarily difficult to do in New Jersey,” said James W. Hughes, dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers and co-author, with Joseph J. Seneca, of the report, titled “Where Have All the Dollars Gone? An Analysis of New Jersey Migration Patterns.”
In 2006, 72,547 more people left New Jersey than arrived there, compared with 23,759 in 2002.
The departures to other states were partly offset by the arrival of immigrants from overseas. But overall, New Jersey’s population increased just 0.2 percent last year, making it one of the 10 slowest-growing states in the country.
From 2000 to 2005, 190,702 residents of New Jersey left for New York, including many empty nesters, people whose children have grown up and moved away. An additional 188,704 people — including many retirees — moved to Florida. Pennsylvania received 183,885 New Jersey residents, thanks to cheaper home prices and lower tax rates.
California, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia and Texas were next among popular destinations.
The economic consequences of these departures are profound. The net adjusted gross income of those who left — total income minus deductions for contributions to retirement accounts and other items — was nearly $8 billion from 2000 to 2005. The loss of income — and consumer spending — led to 38,810 fewer jobs and $85.4 million less in state sales and income taxes.
From Bloomberg:
New Jersey Loses $10 Billion as Residents Move Out, Report Says
New Jersey’s loss of residents to other U.S. states more than tripled between 2002 and 2006, draining $10 billion in personal income from the economy and reducing tax revenue by $680 million, according to a Rutgers University report.
The number of people who left New Jersey exceeded those who moved in from other parts of the nation by 72,547 last year, the report by two Rutgers economists said. While there is no one reason for the losses, the state’s high costs, including housing, and improved economic opportunities elsewhere are possible explanations, the report said.
Unless New Jersey can reverse its population trend, the state’s fiscal crisis will persist, said James Hughes, dean of Rutgers’s Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy in New Brunswick and co-author of the report. Treasury officials said yesterday that New Jersey faces a shortfall that may exceed $3 billion in the coming fiscal year.
“It’s worrisome,” said Hughes, who wrote the population report with Professor Joseph Seneca. “When you are talking about $10 billion less in income and $680 million in income and sales taxes, it’s going to be very hard to balance the state’s budget.”
From the AP:
New Jersey’s population drain starting to hit state hard
New Jersey’s accelerating population loss is starting to have significant economic and fiscal consequences for the state, according to a Rutgers University report that found the state may be becoming a less attractive locale.
The report found the state lost 231,565 people between 2002 and 2006, including 72,547 people last year. The latter was the fourth highest loss in the nation behind only California, Louisiana and New York.
Meanwhile, North Carolina grew by 807,000 people over the four-year period, displacing New Jersey last year as the nation’s 10th most populous state, the report stated.
When lost income and sales taxes from the people who left New Jersey are considered, the population drain is estimated to have cost the state $680 million in tax revenue last year, the report found.
That estimated loss comes with the state confronting annual budget deficits and struggling to meet billions of dollars in unmet needs. The projected budget deficit could be as large as $3.5 billion next year, according to Gov. Jon S. Corzine.
The Rutgers report was authored by James W. Hughes, dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, and Joseph J. Seneca, a university professor.
“The population outflow is real, is approaching worrisome dimensions and is exerting a small, but increasingly negative impact on the New Jersey economy,” they wrote.
They said the reasons behind the state’s population loss were unclear.
From the Star Ledger:
Jerseyans leave at alarming rate
Residents are leaving New Jersey at three times the rate they were just five years ago, a trend that is already doing real damage to the state’s economy and budget coffers, a new Rutgers University report shows.
The exodus is so bad, the study says, it could lead to an overall drop in the state’s population as soon as next year.
The population outflow is real, is approaching worrisome dimensions, and is exerting a small but increasingly negative impact on the New Jersey economy,” said the study by Rutgers economists James Hughes and Joseph Seneca.
Last year alone, the loss of people cost the state economy about $10 billion in income, and about $680 million in state budget revenue.
While the economists said they are certain the exodus is growing, they are less sure of why. Possible reasons include high housing costs and the state’s generally high cost of living. Society in general also is increasingly mobile, they said.
Seneca said state leaders need a broad agenda to reverse the slide. The solutions, he said, should include a further reduction in the highest-in-the-nation property tax burden, more investments in infrastructure, science and technology and new policies to restore business confidence.
“These trends are not going to be reversed overnight,” Seneca said.
In their study, Seneca and Hughes reviewed Census and Internal Revenue Service data between 2002 and 2006. They found the gap between the number of people leaving the state and new arrivals has more than tripled. In 2002, the gap was 23,759. By last year, it had jumped to 72,547.
From the Record:
N.J. ranks 49th, R.I. last for business climate
Federal prosecutors probe the State House for evidence of influence peddling.
Business leaders lament the state’s unfriendly business climate, citing its high taxes, energy prices and health insurance costs. And the governor wrestles with a massive budget gap amid complaints that the state is uncompetitive.
It’s a typical day for a Northeastern state struggling to improve its economy.
New Jersey? Try Rhode Island.
The similarity between the two states’ economic and political pictures is underlined in a ranking of states’ business climates released today by the Tax Foundation, a Washington D.C.-based research group.
Yet there’s one difference in which New Jersey business leaders can take heart — at least their state isn’t the worst in the nation.
The study placed New Jersey at 49th, while Rhode Island finished last. And while New Jersey fell one place, from 48th last year, Rhode Island has now placed last for three years running.
New Jersey’s position didn’t surprise some longtime observers of the state’s performance.
“We’ve got some work head of us,” said Jim Leonard, a lobbyist for the Trenton-based New Jersey Chamber of Commerce. “Forty-eight states to go.”
…
New Jersey has the next-to-worst individual income and property tax systems and the seventh-worst sales tax system, the study said. Rhode Island has the worst unemployment tax system, the third-worst property tax system and the fourth-worst individual income tax system.
“Companies in New Jersey are paying among the highest rates in the world,” said Curtis Dubay, an economist who compiled the ranking for the Tax Foundation. He noted that companies in Rhode Island pay slightly less corporate income tax than New Jersey.
“In New Jersey, everything is bad,” he said. “The only reason that New Jersey doesn’t rank last is that Rhode Island is a little worse.”
grim (1)-
I don’t think we’ll stop until the state realizes it’s become like a giant version of Philadelphia. The tax base- both business and residential- will have all been chased off, and we’ll be left with a giant shell of a welfare slum-state.
However in our situation, unlike a city such as Philly, one can’t just move outside the city limits to escape the pain. You have to get all the way out of the state. And, it appears that plenty of people and companies are now “voting with their feet”. It’s hard to envision any event or new state policy forthcoming that will reverse this trend. Like inertia, this thing is in motion and will stay in motion until an equal and opposite force- such as the state’s hitting rock bottom- brings the plummet to a halt.
The government/bureaucratic sector will continue to pull on the crack pipe until the supply of rock runs dry. Like addicts, they can only continue in their current behavior until the addicting substance runs out or is removed. They will remain unaware of the consequences of their actions on others long after the actual bottom is reached.
I hope I’m long gone when all this happens.
From Seneca and Hughes at the NJ Voices blog:
New Jersey’s population drain
These losses are starting to have significant economic and fiscal consequences. Internal Revenue Service data on tax filers and their dependents show a substantial loss of income in the state. New Jersey’s 2005 net aggregate adjusted gross income (AGI) was reduced by an estimated $7.9 billion because of the net loss of tax payers between 2000 and 2005. Our estimates of continued out migration indicate that our AGI was reduced by over $10 billion in 2006. In essence, because of the cumulative net outflow of taxpayers, $10 billion was removed from the New Jersey economy in 2006, reducing consumer expenditures, employment, and state and local taxes.
All this translated into a total direct and indirect tax loss (state income and sales taxes) of $539 million in 2005. Based on 2006 population out migration data, the tax losses are estimated to have increased to $680 million in 2006.
lets continue to allow illegals to
live off the state.
lets see: Fairview,Trenton,Passaic,Paterson,
Trenton,W.New York, Union City,Plainfield,
Edison,Camden,
These are all wonderful places to raise
a family.
Did you know that some of the gas stations bill you more than the listed price? I was told by a gas station attendant that the listed price applies only to cash payments. Credit card users get charged an extra 6C per gallon above the listed price. It’s not much of a difference but then you are paying more than the listed price. It was a Valero gas station.
This is a bigger issue, at least to me, as compared to buying 30-40% off 2005. In addition to this, what will be the next move for the baby boomers. Reports indicate that approx 1/3 are counting on cashing out of their home for retirement, no other retirement savings. Combine a potential wave of boomers leaving along with high paying/quality jobs that are currently fleeing. Here, you can have my house, just pay my taxes?
Can someone point out any medium to large size businesses that are actually growing and hiring in NJ?
I can name a bunch of them that appear to be shrinking or moving out of NJ. For example, AT&T (headquarters no longer in bedminster), Lucent (no longer the company it was during the dot-com boom), pfizer (I think they moved out of morris-plains?)…
what big companies are actually bringing anybody to this state?
Verizon took over AT&T’s Basking Ridge headquarters. The AT&T building is still there fully staffed.
The Lucent building in Holmdel is sitting there vacant. Guess what? A developer wanted to bulldoze the damn thing and put up acres of McMansions…..Holmdel said “…eat my telecom router…”
“….While the economists said they are certain the exodus is growing, they are less sure of why. Possible reasons include high housing costs and the state’s generally high cost of living. Society in general also is increasingly mobile, they said….”
“economists” are not this stupid
“In New Jersey, everything is bad,” he said. “The only reason that New Jersey doesn’t rank last is that Rhode Island is a little worse.”
You have to pay for this type of cutting edge analysis.
… patiently waiting for the report to be released this morning.
WSJ
Valero Energy Forecasts Lower Third-Quarter Earnings
By KEVIN KINGSBURY
October 10, 2007 8:32 a.m.
Valero Energy Corp. expects third-quarter earnings to be lower, despite charging credit card users an extra $0.06 per gallon above the listed price at the pump….
just kidding…..
“Jerseyans leave at alarming rate”
This is bunch of BS, if so many people are leaving the state how come there’s more and more traffic every year? Are the aliens driving on GSP? I would not trust Rutgers University with any math of theirs.
But…but…but the people who stayed have higher incomes!!!
[Sarcasm off]
Are the aliens driving on GSP? I would not trust Rutgers University with any math of theirs.
Yes, illegal ones
For all of the people on the board who harp that people leaving the state just dont appreciate the culture or are not smart/rich enough or are just middle managers… Do these articles start to shine the light on the real situation for you?
Why do I want to be the last one out, the one stuck with the massive tax bill to cover the shell of a wellfare state left after the first and second waves of the exodus have occurred? I can only speak to pharma and biotech, but Nj is dying. There will always be a small amount of pharma here, but the majority of it is already gone. Most existing manufacturing facilities have already or plan to in the near future move a large portion of their operations out of state.
The problem is not democrat or republic. If you are hung up on what political party is in office you are missing the point. Party politics is just a diversion that is used to keep the general public distracted. Until the voters as a united group hold politicians responsible regardless of party then nothing is going to change. Unfortunatly an informed and concerned united votership(made that up) is a pipe dream. Democracy(democratic republic actually) does not function if the population does not actively participate. Once the general public stops participating in a democracy you end up with a plutocracy! welcome to NJ
Pesche – those illegals are going to tke your job and destroy your home value. You’d better move out of NJ.
If we ever get the get-together together, I’m buying Kettle1 a Ketel One just for having written post #17
#16- X-underwriter, that’s not nice (smile) Yeah I know the truth hurts.
Even though prices will come down in years to come we will still pay for it in high taxes if things don’t change within our government. I have been thinking myself to leave NJ in 2009 to live somewhere where you don’t have to sacrifice your first and second born to be able to afford the cost of living and housing.
cf @ 13
6C strategy is for the next qtr :)
#9- As if we don’t already have a enourmous amount of McMansions, just curious who are buying these homes? What about pricing homes so the middle class can acutally afford them? Or am I speaking a totally different language?
Kettle: the $hits broke…the only way to get it fixed is to make things so bad that government has no choice but to take draconian steps……don’t be a fair weather fan….or if you are…goodbye
dislocation breeds opportunity….
This from the Silly Question Office of the Bureau of Empirical Observations:
If NJ’s rapidly draining, why does it seem more crowded than ever?
Pesche: If you’re worried that you’re gonna lose your job (or daughters) to illegals, then you’ve got much bigger personal problems to tend to than just hating brown people.
I think that most people miss the primary issue behind illegal immigration. Illegal immigration is ultimately a result of globalization and most notably in north America that is embodied by NAFTA.
Economies can and have been successfully modeled using thermodynamics; my point being that consider an economy that is represented only by its total average temperature and consider comparing Canada, USA, and Mexico. The USA is the hottest, Canada is slightly cooler, and Mexico is downright cold. Once you open these three economies to one another in the manner that NAFTA started and has been expanded on, you will see all three temperatures try to equalize. Now consider what does that equalization of temperature really represent in the real world? It represents among many things, human economic activity. Given the opportunity people will move from the cold areas to the hot areas; i.e illegal aliens flooding the USA. And this is also why you do not see Canadians flooding the US. They are just slightly cooler then us and considering current economic conditions may now be slightly warmer then us.
Now what does this big picture mean for NJ? it means that we are trying to turn back the tide. We most likely cannot stop it, the best we can hope for is to attempt to control/manage it. it also means that overall NJ is going to be brought down a couple of notches by the illegal alien immigration. Once again consider thermodynamics; if i drop an ice cube in a pot of hot water, the ice cube warms up and melts and the pot cools off. how much the pot cools depends on how much ice (illegals) you put in and how hot (the estate economy) and how large (overall state population) the pot is. If you truly wanted to stop it you would have to reverse a fair amount of the steps we have taken towards globalization. hope i didnt ramble to much…
The theory of modeling economic using thermodynamic has been one of the more successful recent methods and has been verified. Feel free to digg around the web of you are curious.
Clot (3): NJ a giant version of Philadelphia? Try a colossal version of the 700 section of the Vet–complete with drunks tossing D-batteries at the losers of a Punt, Pass, and Kick contest.
But I knew that before I moved here.
Don’t worry….they’ve found the solution!!!!!
The struggling housing market could help stem the outflow, the report said.
“Basically, if you can’t sell your house, you can’t move,” Hughes and Seneca stated in the report.
Did you know that some of the gas stations bill you more than the listed price? I was told by a gas station attendant that the listed price applies only to cash payments. Credit card users get charged an extra 6C per gallon above the listed price. It’s not much of a difference but then you are paying more than the listed price. It was a Valero gas station.
I experienced the same thing on route 1 south bound on my way to sesame place last week. Is this legal?
24 Jamey
Maybe his wife…?
Kettle
May be worth simply stating the first law of thermodynamics
Some states prohibit surcharges for credit card payments.
I don’t know about NJ, though.
I’ve seen the issue come up in the context of PayPal/Ebay. Ebay sellers aren’t allowed to tack on a surcharge for buyers who pay with PayPal because that’s illegal in some states.
Looks like those people leaving NJ aren’t stopping at the 1st exit in PA anymore.
Economist says Lehigh Valley housing market correcting itself as data show decline in sales.
http://www.nj.com/business/expresstimes/index.ssf?/base/business-1/1191990180289370.xml&coll=2
WHEN SHOULD I PUT MY HOUSE ON THE MARKET, IF MY TWO CHOICES ARE: EARLY NOVEMBER OR WAIT UNTIL THE SPRING? If everyone feels sure that house prices will continue to decline for the next year or so at the least, then for someone who wants to sell their house and can be ready to put the house on the market either at the beginning of November or wait until the spring, what would be better? I know that November through February is usually the worst time for selling, but if the market continues declining in price, then would it be even worse (insofar as potential sales price if a buyer is found) in the spring? The type of house I want to sell is a 5-year-old McMansion in a fairly good location, but in a town where there are several similar houses already for sale (but I’m willing to slightly under-price those similar houses in order to sell mine, if I have to). During the time the house will be on the market, it will however be a nightmare for my family in trying to keep the house looking organized etc. (I have 4 mess-making children). So I want the house on the market for the shortest possible time and want a quick sale after it goes on the market, to minimize the suffering of keeping the home in showably neat condition. What does everything think?–put it on the market in November, or wait until spring?
#19 thanks
#23 ChiFi
Fair Weather fan? maybe.
But big picture is that i first look out for my family and then everyone else. I have no problem with try to effect change in my community, but there comes a point when the people running the show continuously show complete disregard for sane policies and blatantly pursue personal gain over the betterment of the community they run that you have to throw in the towel. I am not going to stick around to watch a community crumble if doing so limits the future opportunities available to my family.
I completely agree with you statement the $hits broke…the only way to get it fixed is to make things so bad that government has no choice but to take draconian steps
Also consider that if My wife and i did not have a child we would be less inclined to jump ship. Once a child is in the picture your priorities change as well as your point of view. Given that i have been a father for only 4 months so far i can still see my shift in priorities quite clearly compared to my point of view and priorities a year ago.
Here is an interesting post from a person who was involved in sorting out forclosed properties during the last RE bust:
http://ths.gardenweb.com/forums/load/realestate/msg101405237002.html?37
#30 NJ Patient
do you mean the Zeroth Law?
Zeroth Law of thermodynamics
If two thermodynamic systems are in thermal equilibrium with a third, they are also in thermal equilibrium with each other.
If two thermodynamic systems are in thermal equilibrium with a third, they are also in thermal equilibrium with each other.
A system in thermal equilibrium is a system whose macroscopic properties (like pressure, temperature, volume, etc.) are not changing in time. A hot cup of coffee sitting on a kitchen table is not at equilibrium with its surroundings because it is cooling off and decreasing in temperature. Once its temperature stops decreasing, it will be at room temperature, and it will be in thermal equilibrium with its surroundings.
Two systems are said to be in thermal equilibrium when 1) both of the systems are in a state of equilibrium, and 2) they remain so when they are brought into contact, where ‘contact’ is meant to imply the possibility of exchanging heat, but not work or particles. And more generally, two systems can be in thermal equilibrium without thermal contact if one can be certain that if they were thermally connected, their properties would not change in time.
The 1st law is….
The increase in the internal energy of a thermodynamic system is equal to the amount of heat energy added to the system minus the work done by the system on the surroundings.
jamey,
i think when you imply that anyone who is concerned about the effects of illegal immigration is somehow a bigot, it brings the level of conversation down to childish name calling. it’s sort of like trying to shut someone down without offering meaningful solutions – while at the same time it seems to make the name-caller feel self-righteous.
This is good business.
http://www.silive.com/news/index.ssf/2007/10/foreclosures_become_windfalls.html
in tough times.
What’s with the popular science?
People go where the money is. When there’s no mo money in Joisey, the people will go. [Hmmm, I think pesche got me thinking about watching that Chunky Pam video again. Those two should get together and apply to the NJ economic development council for ambassador jobs.]
I told you guys a while ago the white vans were gone down here. No more salsa jammin at redlights for me. I’m gonna have to splurge and go by some CDs. No more special pastries at the 7-11. Gone.
Traffic is way down on the southern section of 1. Compared to last year, I’m making it to work in half an hour.
It used to take me an hour.
Tell me I got a faster car. Nope, too cheap.
Tell me it’s the construction on the toll bridge in Trenton. Nope, I know a short cut.
There is not as much traffic during rush hour down here.
We are on Top Of the World
States With the Highest and Lowest Property Taxes
Published Oct 08, 2007
Wondering who pays the most in property taxes and who pays the least? Check out these two top ten lists. The first features the 10 states with the highest property taxes, and the second features the 10 states with the lowest property taxes.
States with the Highest Property Taxes
State Median Home Value Median Property Tax % Home Value
New Jersey $366,600 $5,773 1.57%
New Hampshire $253,200 $4,136 1.63%
Connecticut $298,900 $4,049 1.35%
New York $303,400 $3,301 1.09%
Massachusetts $370,400 $3,195 0.86%
Rhode Island $295,700 $3,186 1.08%
Illinois $200,200 $3,061 1.53%
Vermont $193,000 $3,036 1.57%
Wisconsin $163,500 $2,845 1.74%
California $535,700 $2,510 0.47%
Source: 2006 American Community Survey, Tax Foundation Calculations
According to the Tax Foundation, which compiles data based on 2006 figures, residents in the Northeast are still paying the most in taxes. New Jersey topped the list once again for the 2006 year. Some of the homeowners who live in this state pay as much as $6,000 more than the national average on a yearly basis. New Hampshire and Connecticut also have exceptionally high medians.
Taxes are high in the ten states mentioned above for two main reasons: property values are higher and tax rates are higher in these regions than in other parts of the country. New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut are notorious for high taxes. California, on the other hand, has low taxes, but the highest property values in the country.
States with the Lowest Property Taxes
State Median Home Value Median Property Tax % Home Value
Wyoming $148,900 $792 0.53%
Kentucky $111,000 $749 0.67%
New Mexico $141,200 $747 0.53%
South Carolina $122,400 $703 0.57%
Oklahoma $94,500 $677 0.72%
Arkansas $93,900 $469 0.50%
Mississippi $88,600 $437 0.49%
West Virginia $89,700 $422 0.47%
Alabama $107,000 $328 0.31%
Louisiana $114,700 $179 0.16
Source: 2006 American Community Survey, Tax Foundation Calculations
The Tax Foundation data shows that states with lower property values have one thing going for them: lower taxes. The median property tax in Louisiana is only $179–over $5,500 less than the New Jersey median.
Besides more modest home values, a lower per capita income and a lower tax rate are two other reasons why so many of the Southern states pay less in property taxes than other states in the U.S.
Falling Taxes?
For the most part, the real estate property taxes paid during 2006 were based on assessments made during the boom. Back then, prices were skyrocketing and property values were at an all time high in every state in the country.
With property values falling across the nation, property taxes should start falling as well. It is likely, however, that most government entities will hold back on re-assessments unless specifically requested.
Therefore, homeowners should contact the proper tax authority to ask a new assessment if there has been a negative change in area home values.
JB, I am in moderation
#35 Stan- great link. reminds me of some of the stuff on Calculated Risk.
Back to topic of people leaving, it seems the causes are pretty obvious – higher cost of living, declining private sector employment, increased taxes, etc. Any one have ideas on a solution?
JM
#33 – I’d wait until Spring if you can. You’re not likely to get much traffic before then unless you underprice your neighbors substantially. Examine how long these homes have been on the market. Prices may still drop more – they’re certainly not going to rise anytime soon — but there probably will be more people looking and trying to take advantage of the market.
If you want to sell quickly in this market, you have to price aggressively. I learned this the hard way when I finally sold my home in August (for a good 20% less than my starting price a year earlier).
This is bunch of BS, if so many people are leaving the state how come there’s more and more traffic every year?
2 reasons:
-People are keeping their NYC or NJ jobs, but moving to Pennsylvania.
-Internally, people are moving away from NYC adjacent areas (Bergen & Hudson, County etc.) & moving farther out into the burbs in search of affordable housing (central, western & southern NJ), thus creating more traffic.
NJ humor for the day
Springfield bank customer in handcuffs after prank
http://tinyurl.com/yq43eh
Re the Valero gas stations charging an extra $.06 per gallon, I’m pretty sure thats a violation of their merchant agreement with the credit card company, see
http://consumerist.com/consumer/csr/mega-update-requiring-minimum-credit-card-purchases-is-a-violation-168646.php
Is there a link available to the report by Hughes & Seneca?
#36 Kettle – maybe I was thinking of the second law – heat can’t pass from the cooler to the hotter was the proposition that I was searching for.
#37 tcm
In defense of Jamey, if you’ve been around here long enough (and I thought you had been) then you know pesche well enough to know that Jamey’s conclusion is not unfounded.
“Richest town in RI wouldn’t rank in top 100 in New Jersey.”
This sort of measure isn’t relevant to the “ranking of states’ business climates” that the Tax Foundation was doing (although I wouldn’t mind seeing that list of the top 100 richest towns in NJ and RI if you can point me to it). NJ didn’t rank 49th because its citizens are poorer than the citizens of 48 other states. So, likewise, it’s not relevant in this context for determining to what degree RI is a craphole.
Nj patient # 49…
sounds like you were thinking of the second law
Heat cannot spontaneously flow from a material at lower temperature to a material at higher temperature.
– Poverty rate in Providence is higher than in Newark. SO IS THE POVERTY RATE IN CAMDEN
– Waterfront mansions throughout RI have been abandoned and are museums today; demand for waterfront mansions in NJ remains strong. DO THEY HAVE NEEDLES AND SEWAGE ON THE BEACHES?
– Providence’s long-time mayor was a convicted felon and ruthless gangster who was routinely re-elected with >90% of the vote – until he was convicted of racketeering and extortion and sent to jail. ATLANTIC CITY’S MAYOR IS COMPLETELY MISSING, AND IF YOU WANT A GOOD LAUGH, GOOGLE “NEW JERSEY”, “MAYOR” AND “INDICTED” AND YOU’LL COME UP WITH JERSEY CITY, NEWARK AND GUTTENBERG, AND THAT’S JUST 2007!
– Most people moving to RI are poor people escaping New York City and poorly educated immigrants, while the state’s best and brightest leave in droves. NJ attracts a huge numbers of immigrants who care about education, and the people quitting NJ aren’t its best and brightest. MOST PEOPLE MOVING TO NJ ARE ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS (I KNOW THIS BECAUSE PESCHE TELLS ME SO).
HOV
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=HOV:US&sid=a.h5uy_FZA7Y
#41 “States with the Lowest Property Taxes”
Now THAT’s a list of winners – can’t wait to move to Alabama. Odd coincidence that those states are all highly subsidized by our federal tax dollars. hmmmmmmm
#54 – do you think that would be a stock deal? :)
Regarding Credit Card transactions…
From what I have read that practice does not sound legit. I think that any price you advertise has to be a credit card price. The sign at the station would have to be for credit cards as well as cash. It is legit to offer a cash discount (this happens to me all the time if I ask for it). You can’t charge more than the advertised price though, that is the credit card agreement as I understand it. I have never been to one of those stations as I usually use Exxon but the practice sounds shady to me.
#50 – njpatient
actually, i have been around for a while, but i never keep track of who says what in past posts.
so, it’s entirely possible i was too hard on jamey, and jumped to a conclusion i should not have.
UnRealtor Says:
October 9th, 2007 at 8:07 pm
Folks, I give you an $80,000 price drop on a $600K house:
MLS 2424985
http://homes.realtor.com/prop/1085016233
Price history:
Jul 11, 2007: $715,000
Sep 16, 2007: $679,000
Sep 28, 2007: Attorney Review
Oct 09, 2007: Active
Oct 09, 2007: $599,900
Can you say Comp Killer?
UnRealtor – that’s not the first one. I remember posting about 115 Short Hills Ave that sold in the $599k range earlier in the year for a Glenwood home. This could now be a trend. I took a look at that house before I made my decision to wait until next year. Now just continually eyeing the market for what’s selling.
Reality will set in when we see further price adjustments. I’m starting to see several homes in the Hartshorn district list for under a $1mm. This was not possible a year or two ago.
Which one is it?
thermodynamics is to the issue of immigration as:
a) Yankees needing more money to win a world series
b) Hedge fund managers requiring further tax cuts to increase employment
c) Low-IQ individuals praying to Fox news for salvation
d) Increasing military spending to stop the evildoers
e) Bush vetoing health care for children (“s-chip”) to balance the budget
What has been the yearly avg property tax increase for NJ? Or for a county, town, etc? If you have it over the past few years, it would be appreciated.
What has been the yearly avg property tax increase for NJ? Or for a county, town, etc? If you have it over the past few years, it would be appreciated.
You can look it up here…down to specific houses
http://www.nj.com/news/bythenumbers/
From a previous thread…
Pretorius said:
NC has replaced NJ as the best place to live if you are a middle manager.
Middle managers by their nature avoid taking risks. That is why they desire affordable single family homes in mass-produced cookie-cutter suburbs…
…
Between 1950 and 1990, NJ was a great place if you were a middle manager. Big companies like Merck and AT&T expanded and built enormous headquarters in the suburbs
…
Then New York City boomed too. NJ’s proximity to this rise in economic activity caused NJ land values – and home prices – to surge. Today, a NJ middle manager can’t afford the home in the town he thinks he deserves..
I think you mischaracterize middle managers as risk-avoiding slackers devoid of culture or ambition. In truth, many in middle management have the ability to move up, but place a higher value on their spending time with their family than making it to the top. Avoiding risks? Yea, being responsible for a child will do that to you. Middle management has historically meant a position that strikes that balance; you were financially stable, but not rich, you could afford a SFH in a decent neighborhood with decent schools for your kids, but you could still get home at a decent hour.
You are right; NJ no longer offers this. I disagree, however, that that middle managers are being squeezed by some mass gentrification. The area isn’t getting a lot richer, just more expensive. I do agree that the ranks of middle managers in NJ are shrinking, but the public employee has replaced the middle manager. Jobs like “police officer” are
WASHINGTON – The decline in 2007 sales of existing homes will be steeper than previously anticipated, a trade group for real estate agents said Tuesday.
http://www.forbes.com/topstories/home/feeds/ap/2007/10/10/ap4205353.html
a) Yankees needing more money to win a world series
Not giving that answer, but Steinbrenner has spent his entire career proving that you can’t buy a World Series, and he’s done a good job with that proof.
Reggie? They’d just been there without him, on the strength of good trades by Gabe Paul.
The 1996-2000 squads? The backbone of that team was either home-grown (Posada, Jeter, Bernie, Pettitte, Rivera, who weren’t traded while Stick Michael was running the team during and immediately after Steinbrenner’s suspension), good trades (Hitchcock for Tino Martinez, Roberto Kelly for Paul O’Neill), or free agent signings of guys nobody else wanted (e.g., Brosius, who hit something like .216 the year before they signed him).
Steinbrenner took the reins again (he can’t stand not to get the credit) and stamped his style back on the team with acquisitions like Clemens, Giambi, Mussina, Arod, Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown and the like, none of whom has contributed meaningfully to the team).
It’s quite amazing – you simply can’t buy a ring, and Steinbrenner has proved it over and over.
You can, however, buy Dave LaPoint, Andy Hawkins, Ed Whitson, Rick Rhoden, Danny Tartabull, Jack Clark, etc. etc. ad nauseum.
“The decline in 2007 sales of existing homes will be steeper than previously anticipated”
They are, of course, speaking for themselves.
# 60
Assuming the following
0th law: If two thermodynamic systems are in thermal equilibrium with a third, they are also in thermal equilibrium with each other
1st law: The increase in the internal energy of a thermodynamic system is equal to the amount of heat energy added to the system minus the work done by the system on the surroundings.
2nd law: In an isolated system, a process can occur only if it increases the total entropy of the system
3rd law: As a system approaches absolute zero of temperature, all processes cease and the entropy of the system approaches a minimum value
Then
A) Yankees needing more money to win a world series
1st law
B) Hedge fund managers requiring further tax cuts to increase employment
1st law
C) YLow-IQ individuals praying to Fox news for salvation
0th law
D) Increasing military spending to stop the evildoers
1st law
E) IBush vetoing health care for children (“s-chip”) to balance the budget
2nd law
Njpatient #51,
The reason I highlighted the income differential between RI and NJ is because both states used to be among the richest in the country. Today, NJ still is but RI isn’t.
RI’s economy peaked 100 years ago, and the productive people left. That is why there aren’t any rich towns in the state.
NJ’s economy just peaked. Most of the people who drove the economy are still here, but now this productive class is beginning to leave. RI is comparable to NJ in many ways, and RI’s experience provides a good case for what is happening in NJ today.
Here are the lists that you requested.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Jersey_locations_by_per_capita_income
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhode_Island_locations_by_per_capita_income
#62, thanks for the link…man this state sucks.
CL Add hits Reuters:
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Deal or no deal? An online exchange between a woman looking for a husband who earns more than $500,000 a year and a mystery Wall Street banker, who assessed her potential for romance as a business deal, has cause quite an Internet stir.
CL Ad hits Reuters:
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Deal or no deal? An online exchange between a woman looking for a husband who earns more than $500,000 a year and a mystery Wall Street banker, who assessed her potential for romance as a business deal, has cause quite an Internet stir.
JB x one, please.
and the people quitting NJ aren’t its best and brightest.
Maybe they’re just smarter than the average bear.
Regarding Valero, it was a shrewd move on their part….took 2 months for me to figure they were charging extra, when I happened to look at a receipt for once.
I always fill up the same station enroute from work. Little did I realize that the middle sign was for regular fuel – credit. The lowest price was for regular – cash. ‘Cash’ and ‘Credit’ are written in 4 font.
As a token sign of protest, I’ve started using the Raceway on the opposite side of the street. Have also noticed the Raceway is always busy, while the Valero is practically empty. Eventually, people figure it out….
Yes great link.
Agree w/ bergenbuyer. If it wasn’t for family and lack of appealing options in NY, WHY AM I BUYING IN NJ???
Only a drop in price might satisfy that question, since I’m still renting.
I am from RI originally. I wish I could live there. Unfortunately, as Pretorious noted, it is a complete disaster economically. The cost of living is high and there are very few decent jobs available outside of working for the state. No one I know from high school who went to college out of state lives there now.
Still, even though this Tax Foundation report ranks it last, in my opinion most of the northeastern states suffer from the same problems and it is a bit like splitting hairs to determine which is the worst off economically. (By the way, most of the population of RI is within 1 hr of Boston, so it is not that different in its relationship to that city as NJ is to NYC)
All of the northeastern states (except for NH) have massively bloated government bureacracies with amazingly lucrative benefits and retirement packages for their employees.
All of these governments are rife with corruption. You can find high level officials indicted in recent years in just about all of them (can think of NJ, CT, MA and RI off the top of my head. NY legislature is notoriously corrupt). In my opinion this corruption mainly stems from heavy unionization which overlaps with organized crime. Again, in all of these states, this exists.
Finally, with respect to the “fair weather fan” issue, I have to agree with Kettle1 here. Although I love RI and will always consider it my home, it is so corrupt and dead that it is not worth sticking around. I don’t see why anyone would take any pride in standing on a sinking ship– what is the point?
I agree that these states will not right themselves until they are forced to by crisis, which is quickly approaching with the retirement of the baby boomers.
Who knows how this mess will play out, but I’ll give it a stab. Assume the following:
House sold at peak in 2006 for $750K
Current taxes are $12,000
Based on that tax link and the 1 town I picked, taxes increased 44% since 2000 and at a higher rate 2004-06 vs. 2000-03. Let’s say 7.5% a year.
Who knows when we’ll hit a price bottom, but I don’t think it will be in the next few months, probably more like the next few years.
We also don’t know the final %, but some people think 50% some think we’re there already and some think it will just be stagnant until inflation catches up. Let’s just go with ~25% off peak.
I think we can all agree that new developments aren’t going to be as frequent as they were the past few years, so the gov’t isn’t going to be getting revenues from there and I don’t see any major cuts happening either, so 7.5% RE tax increase might be conservative as the less people there are in the state, the more the remaming residents burden the required tax (ie the states revenue requirements).
In 2010 that house I bought for $750K is now worth about $550K and my taxes are now about $15K.
Hopefully, by this time, the state will have realized it needs to cut services and taxes will increase less and house prices will be stagnant for a little and then begin to appreciate at levels of approx the inflation rate.
If we keep our fingers crossed, in about 10 years this state should be in better shape and the housing market will be back to normal.
Can anyone give me a reason why I’d want to buy today or even in the next few years?
Uh ohh, the wife is gonna kill me, I think I just convinced myself to not buy a house in NJ for the next decade.
So how come some other nearby states are not in such dire straights?
(O.K., no links to Money For Nothing are necessary.)
Maybe the trick is NOT allowing your state to become a tick on the back of another state’s biggest city. Transit villages? Tick.
I think many of these areas are in Laffer effect territory. Raising taxes may actually decrease revenues at this point by forcing more people/business out of state or into the black market
T C M
I don’t “feel” self-righteous. I’ve just read too many of Pesche’s bleatings hereabouts.
But then, you oftentimes appear to be cut from the same cloth.
#75,
Because inflation is out of control in this country and owning a hard asset is the only way to keep your money from disappearing.
#75 skep
one of the reasons why the northeast is in such bad fiscal shape is that we get robbed by the federal government in a spectacular way. Example: NJ gets 57 cents in spending for each dollar it pays in federal taxes.
See here:
http://www.startribune.com/484/story/1473901.html
“The Census Bureau report on 2005 spending documents the geographic distribution of $2.3 trillion in government spending, including salaries, grants, military pay, government contracts and Social Security payments. It excludes interest on the national debt, overseas spending and intelligence agency budgets. The AP compared the census data to IRS figures for 2005 tax collections.
The analysis shows that wealthy states pay more than poor ones, blue states subsidize red states and states with powerful politicians on key House and Senate committees fare well in federal spending.
High-income states like New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts paid more in taxes than they received, while low-income states like Mississippi, West Virginia and Alabama got a much higher return for their tax dollars. “
#76
I think the other northeastern states are in dire straits. none of them have the funds to meet their long term obligations and they all have flat population growth with large net losses of young people who would have been their future tax base. I think all of them will reach a fiscal crisis point within the next 10 yrs
#80
NJpatient– but the net loss of fed tax dollars is not really the source these states’ biggest problem, which is their obligations to state employees.
I know that money is fungible and that money these states don’t receive from the feds has to be accounted for in other ways, but there is quite simply a spending problem of epic proportions that is home grown. It is a bit like GM and Ford saying that we would be competitive if there was national healthcare– it doesn’t really address the fact that they made unreasonable promises to their staffs.
So, when our property values decline and houses are only selling for $50,000 in 3 years, can the $12,000 yearly property taxes be lowered, or will they still be high?
What I really have a hard time understanding is this: Where is all the money going from the property taxes??? If they increased 44% in a short amount of time, what did the state and municipal gov’t do with all of that revenue??
Not to mention the BOOM in construction, that brought big bucks to municipalities as well.
Also, what kind of work will the illegal immigrants do if the new construction is stopping? The bubble gave these people jobs, now what?
# 81 Sketpic,
I agree with both your point in # 81 and #77. he state has defiantly reach a negative point of return on a Laffer Curve. Any increase in taxes at this point will only accelerate the exodus from the state. I would go so far as to suggest that a fiscal crisis point will be hit in 5-10 years. The problem is that the state has entered a negative feed back loop where the quickest solution to the problem is to cut spending and cut services, however the current commitments and current political environment drive them to increase spending/services and increase taxes.
You will not see any true spending and tax reductions until a fiscal failure is reached because the politician who cuts taxes and reduces spending/services will be immediately turned into a whipping boy. The main issue here is that the general population does not consider the long term effects and wants instant gratification. Any real solution is going to be unpleasant and take time. both the general public and politicians will not accept this until they are forced to.
Laffer curve
laffer curve
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve
There was an article in last weeks Star Ledger about how many biotech companies are relocated to PA from NJ.
http://www.nj.com/timesoftrenton/stories/index.ssf?/base/business-3/119172997592740.xml&coll=5
#84
you just hi the nail on the head! There are a large number of illegal aliens that have been financially supported by the housing boom. Now that the bubble is bursting and construction and related services are down the drain for the foreseeable future what do they do for employment?
The state has already made it clear that they are happy to support illegal aliens. So on top of massive unfunded entitlement programs, huge infrastructure repair bills, and ever expanding serives, we are going to have a surge in wellfare programs as the illegal alien population loses its primary source of employment. Now consider the current exodus of the prime tax base and continuing increases to tax rates that are already astronomical and we have a heck of desirable place to live !
skep (74)-
The Northeast is well on its way to becoming the new Rust Belt.
An exhausted tax base, negative growth and an entrenched welfare state, anyone? Hell, I went on several incoming-relo bus tours for pharma employees and their families TEN YEARS AGO, where all the wives on the bus were crying within thirty minutes of the start of the tour.
The saddest thing about all this is that once we hit bottom, we’ll have to provide massive tax moratoriums, incentives and perks to attract corporations back into the state (if anything at all can be done to lure them). We’ll have to become a corporate tax haven as a “loss leader” in order to even have a semblance of an economy.
by 2050 50% of the population will be
MINORITY.
Latino will rule.
Get with the program. One in Five today in
school is Latino and continues to increase.
View it as an opportunity.
one more news!!!
Some 2 million mortgages are due to reset to higher rates in the months ahead.
The saddest thing about all this is that once we hit bottom, we’ll have to provide massive tax moratoriums, incentives and perks to attract corporations back into the state
That reminds me of the American auto companies that have to work themselves out of the holes they dug.
vodka (85)-
5-10 years? Hell, the crisis is right here, right now.
The state’s proposed sale of toll roads is the most visible symptom of the current disease.
This is what happens when you charge 40K a year for tuition. What did they exopect?
http://www.24dash.com/news/48/28588/index.htm
People act like they are shocked. Lord knows I’ve paid off so many college loans myself. I think it’s a noble cause and it should be included in their work study program(sarcasm off)
JB, #67 is in moderation
While we’re all sharing the warmth, here’s a real shocker of a piece of news (from the AP):
“The eighth straight downwardly revised forecast from the National Association of Realtors calls for U.S. existing home sales to be 10.8 percent lower than last year as housing market struggles persist.
In its October report, the association predicts 5.78 million existing homes will be sold in 2007, down from 6.48 million last year. Last month, the association predicted an 8.6 percent drop from a year ago.
Still, the group maintains an optimistic message. It’s senior economist, Lawrence Yun, noted in a statement that markets including Austin, Texas, Salt Lake City and Raleigh N.C. are showing price growth and 2007’s home sales will be the fifth-highest on record.
“The speculative excesses have been removed from the market and home sales are returning to fundamentally healthy levels, while prices remain near record highs, reflecting favorable mortgage rates and positive job gains,” Yun said.”
I think my national association might want to investigate the meaning of the term, “credibility gap”.
even Vinny Testaverde’s moving to carolina
skep
“I know that money is fungible and that money these states don’t receive from the feds has to be accounted for in other ways, but there is quite simply a spending problem of epic proportions that is home grown.”
I agree that there are massive home-grown problems in many of these states – spending is too high, corruption runs rampant (although, as an aside, while I think the corruption issue is a big problem I doubt it’s that much worse in RI, NJ, NY, CT than it is in LA, MS, FL, AL, TX, NV or any of another dozen states).
However, the total dollars lost as a result of NJ subsidizing other states in the union in 2004 (the most recent year that I could rapidly find enough relevant data, when NJ only lost 37 cents on the dollar instead of 43) was approximately $28.5 Billion. That’s $3.25K per person. It’s also enough to repair all of the state’s faulty bridges. Twice. Every year.
That’s a lot of scratch.
We should all be getting a “thank you” card from every man, woman and child in Mississippi and Alabama every year.
See 2004 data here:
http://www.nemw.org/fundsrank.htm
http://www.wnjpin.net/OneStopCareerCenter/LaborMarketInformation/lmi02/NST-EST2006-01.xls
#94 make
funny – Papa Patient attended that institution. I’ll ask him if he would have regarded this as an improvement.
#88
Even legal immigrants aren’t entitled to welfare support. I had to sign a legal affidavit assuring support for my husband when he got his green card. Even if we were to divorce he is my financial responsibility forever!!
I read somewhere that slowing construction and less jobs for illegals here has actually caused some reduction in traffic over the border. They come for the jobs and money. No jobs, no illegals. Of course if the recession gets really bad, demand might be up again as struggling companies look to cut corners.
way, way, WAY OT, but this is too funny not to share (move over, Larry Craig):
http://www.sadlyno.com/archives/7433.html
grim, can you please unmoderate #98?
so it doesn’t get lost, the gist of #98 is that the total dollars lost as a result of NJ subsidizing other states in the union with its federal taxes in 2004 (the most recent year that I could rapidly find enough relevant data) was approximately $28.5 Billion.
That’s an annual amount, and it could balance a lot of budgets.
#90,
WHats the opportunity? for me , a white guy, to become recognized as a minority and get affirmative action on my side???
matt Says:
October 10th, 2007 at 2:24 pm
by 2050 50% of the population will be
MINORITY.
Latino will rule.
Get with the program. One in Five today in
school is Latino and continues to increase.
View it as an opportunity.
#83 So, when our property values decline and houses are only selling for $50,000 in 3 years, can the $12,000 yearly property taxes be lowered, or will they still be high?
No, whether the median house is worth $50K or $50M, the required tax revenues of the town, county, state, etc still need to be met. In fact, if we continue to lose people in NJ taxes will go even higher.
If the gov’t needs $100 and there are 100 people, everyone gets charged $1. If 50 people leave, the remaining citizens get charged $2.
I’ve come to the realization that if you are renting here in Northern/Central NJ, there really is no reason why you should consider buying. I always thought that if you had the opportunity to buy then you should do so because at least you were building equity and creating memories. As cliché as that sounds, it’s true. That was before the self-indulgent pig fest called greed took over and pilfered as many people as it could for as much as it could.
A starter POS for 400K plus with 10K in taxes in a so-so town is just absurd and for anyone with a young family to wait is even more absurd. If your going to buy, I’d suggest looking into these areas in NC or PA or whatever looks appealing to you and find a nice 4 bed/2bath in a family community where your kids could play in a big back yard and ride their bikes down the end of a big cul-de-sac with their friends. It makes perfect sense.
NJ has gone down the tubes even faster than I thought it would. What a g*ddam scam this whole place has become. I landed my current home through a prayer in early 2001 when multiple bids where in full fashion and felt lucky that I did. My taxes were $4,600 then… they are now over $7,100. Yup… the privilege of living in New Haughty on a 50 X 100 lot.
My wife and I had a mini blowup the other day because my patience was wearing to make a move to a slightly bigger home in a slightly better town on a slightly better street. For what. She’s right. It should’ve been 10 years ago. Why the f*ck would I want to more than double my monthly payments?? It’s too late… for us, for me and for this POS state we live in. Do yourself and your family a favor; look into these other areas and don’t fall victim to some greedy, fat pigs plan to have you pay for their retirement.
90,
WHats the opportunity? for me , a white guy, to become recognized as a minority and get affirmative action on my side???
Kettle,
look to get into the rice and beans business!
#102 Lisoosh
The costs/services i am referring to is medical (ER costs for hospitals), Education ( there are a number of stats on the large number or illegal children in our schools, this drives up education costs and it may be argued whether or not they decrease the quality of the education in some schools), and police/justice costs.
I have read estimates (although i do not know how biased one way or the other they may be)the cost imposed is between 1.5 and 2.5 billion per year just in NJ.
I fully support legal, orderly, and controlled immigration but am completely against illegal immigration and think it should be dealt with harshly
patient (103)-
:O
The opportunity it there . You have to change your thinking. You guys make me
laugh.
Even Nascar is going Latino, and so will the
new Fox News Channel.
This probably sounds very racist, but frankly i dont care, i try to judge people by there actions alone. That said i have to ask the following question:
Mexico is astronomically corrupt, so corrupt that it makes NJ look like a management panacea. If the mexicans cannot affect positive change in their home country why do we want a massive influx into the US. I direct this question not at individual mexicans, but their culture. All cultures are not equal. And yes the US has many problems both culturally and socially but i the current state of each country says something. But dont worry, even without immigration if the US continues on its current path we wont be far behind them in corruption or any other matter in a few decades.
#80 Jamey
Really? When?
When did you get a view into the window of my soul?
Wow! You must be a very pious person! I’m so impressed. Can you please hear my confession?
“I fully support legal, orderly, and controlled immigration but am completely against illegal immigration and think it should be dealt with harshly”
I actually strongly support legal, orderly immigration, which (among other things) specifically causes me to oppose illegal immigration. Folks who intend to do nothing about the problem like to pretend it’s complicated, but it’s not. All you have to do is have draconian financial penalties on corporations that hire illegals (we ALL know where to find them), and actually ENFORCE those penalties.
It’s really easy. It’s just that no one who has power actually wants to do this, because they get FILTHY RICH by hiring illegals and paying them dirt (“WHAT?!? You’re going to complain about how I treat you?!? I’ll have you deported!!!”).
sharpener,
Why are you selling? Do you have to sell within a specific period of time?
If you know you want to sell, why wait until the end of November – the period of time when it’s going into the holidays?
“The season” in real estate supposedly starts with Superbowl Sunday, and usually, spring and early summer is big because people want to get settled in before the school year starts.
But there wasn’t much of a spring selling season this year, and there may not be much of a season in 2008 – but no one knows.
Now that is the Kettle calling the pot black.
kettle1 Says:
October 10th, 2007 at 3:38 pm
This probably sounds very racist, but frankly i dont care, i try to judge people by there actions alone. That said i have to ask the following question:
Hovnanian fire is “suspicious” again..
In reversal, Fire Department now says high-rise blaze is ‘suspicious’
Jersey City Fire Department arson investigators have now ruled Monday’s high-rise fire on the waterfront suspicious, the opposite of what the department announced yesterday.
“We have a renowned arson investigation unit and if there was in fact any wrong doing by anyone, they will find it,” Fire Director Armando Roman said this morning of the blaze, which broke out at a construction site.
vodka (113)-
Things are not as bad in Mexico as you might imagine. As in many other emerging economies, mining, homebuilding (yes, homebuilding), telecom and foodservice are absolutely booming.
Check AMX (America Movil) and HXM (Homex) for starters. Both trade as ADRs (meaning they are not corrupt, banana-republic boilershops). Grupo Mexico, a private company, is the largest copper miner in the world. Credit markets in Mexico are surprisingly stable, and the repatriation we’re witnessing may not just be due only to jobs drying up here.
108 – well said gary…
I’m in a similar situation. Living in a 2BR apt with a 2nd kid on the way. I currently have her buying in on the argument that we should not look to buy until next year. My wife decision to want to move was emotional. Everyone else has bought a place. We need to buy too. I presented the numbers back in 2004 & 2005 and eventually she got with the program. I thought we would look in 2007, but the declines have only been about 10% on a nominal basis for the towns I’m considering. I bunkered down and we had the life discussion that we need to save for our future and not be a slave to our mortgage. So it now looks like we won’t be buying until 2009. We may start looking in fall 2008, but if I have my choice we won’t be moving until 2009.
“Things are not as bad in Mexico as you might imagine. As in many other emerging economies, mining, homebuilding (yes, homebuilding), telecom and foodservice are absolutely booming.”
And they’re all owned by one guy….
NYC Rental Market:
http://www.prudentialelliman.com/NYCPhotos/retail_reports/manhattan_rental_overview2007.pdf
grim (118)-
Those arson investigators should rush over to Red Bank and get a sample of Ara’s hair.
Whatever’s in it was probably the accelerant.
patient (121)-
Details…
I’d rather be Slim Helu than Bill Gates.
108………i was thinking about this the other day…since 2002 our taxes have gone from $7k – 10k….yet others we know pay more…in fact if you are coming from NYC, NJ might seem like a bargain. Think about it….a house….a yard….less crime…a place to park your car and green space…all for less than the cost of a 2BR walk-up in a decent neighborhood….now if you are moving from Indianapolis, that is another story.
#119 CLot,
I am indeed not an expert on mexico and am open to new information. The majority of my opinion comes from NPR and various internet news sources. these sources generally show a very corrupt state. Business is running and making money in mexico, by from the info i have mexico seems to be even more of a plutocracy then the US. ANyway enough on this. back to housing!!!
Another NYC market report:
http://media.bhsusa.com/pdf/BHS3Q07_Market_Report.pdf
Slim came from nothing to build his empire.
American Execs could learn a thing or two
from him.
Besides, he never sold out to T.
Njpatient– I see you point re: federal dollars, but short of eliminating the Senate, I do not think it’s feasible that populous states will get back what they put into the federal system. The only practical way to reduce this drain that I can see is to lower federal taxes across the board. Obviously, this would not have any effect on individual states’ budget difficulties. Moreover, I suspect this phenomenon is not new and existed even when northeastern states ran budget surpluses
kettle (126)-
Info from NPR? God, what a crew of doomsday merchants! I’d pay good money to see Bill Moyers and Terry Gross gagballed. I guess I’ll have to comfort myself with the mental image of Rev. Aldridge hogtied in a double wetsuit (thanks, Patient).
Pravda may have been more accurate, back in the day.
Yup, invest the money you save by renting. North Jersey was awesome when I was growing up. So, so many places to go and shop, etc. It has become a place with a deep divide between the haves and have nots. One thing I can tell you with certainty: the expenses will continue to rise and the state will find someone to pay them.
So it now looks like we won’t be buying until 2009. We may start looking in fall 2008, but if I have my choice we won’t be moving until 2009.
I’m in the exact same position. We were renting a 1 bedroom 1 bath and moved to a smaller place at half the rent. My wife wanted to buy this year but i had to convince her it was a BAD idea. She got very emotional because we didn’t buy and the new place is much smaller but at half the rent we can live with it for a year. She knows this and like me has her eye on the ball and sees the bigger picture.
I have been to Mexico dozens of times. I was working on a construction project there. There aren’t many business that are more corrupt than construction.
Construction is corrupt in Mexico, but it is corrupt in this country too. In Mexico, like in New Jersey, you need to do stuff for the local politicians to get your project approved. In Mexico, you buy uniforms for the kids soccer league or rebuild a bridge. In New Jersey, you build a new football field or park and donate it to the town.
One big difference is safety. In Mexico, I was the only person wearing a construction helmet on the site.
Other big difference is labor and capital. Mexico has labor surplus and capital shortage, the opposite of the US. We buy a pump to get water out of a basement. They hire lots of poor Mexicans and give them buckets. Minimum wage in Mexico City area is 50 pesos, or about $4. No wonder so many want to come here.
Biggest corruption difference is police. Mexican police are very bribable and I’ve witnessed the cash change hands during a traffic stop.
It’s not what you earn – it’s what you keep every month. Eventually, all it boils down to is positive cash-flow. If renting continues to generate cash-flow even after comparing to a buyer’s outlay after taxes, write-offs, continue to rent. If it means not having to mow the lawn, de-ice the driveway in winter and shovel away, so be it. The worm will eventually turn where buying makes sense, but we’re a long way off from it. This slowdown is going to get people to once again go back to the basics…..to finds ways to bring back housing expenses towards a more manageable level.
Expect some new curse words by home-owners at the margin who finally realize the gluttony of NJ property taxes that they failed to previously gauge while house prices were increasing.
i was thinking about this the other day…since 2002 our taxes have gone from $7k – 10k….yet others we know pay more…in fact if you are coming from NYC, NJ might seem like a bargain. Think about it….a house….a yard….less crime…a place to park your car and green space…all for less than the cost of a 2BR walk-up in a decent neighborhood
True. But this has always been the case. Middle/upper middle class young people think it’s a lot of fun to live in the city & don’t mind the high cost. First comes marriage, then thoughts of kids, priorities change & that SFH in a nice safe NJ suburb starts to look attractive.
This trend has existed for a long time and I would argue was already “priced in” to NJ real estate prior to the boom.
Nar press release:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071010/housing_forecast_realtors.html?.v=10
http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/viewArticle.asp?articleID=39102
speaking of mexicans
OT (sortof)-
I am still convinced someone on this site did this:
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/434381731.html
Will anyone take credit?
JM
#138,
Half the local papers now sound like they skim their article strait from this blog ro one like it lately
So am I still SPAM and Clif Claven today? I think the numbers show that Im not the only one who knows moving to NC was a great idea.
The turkey is done and the finances of NJ state are near an economic collapse. Make fun of NC all you want we dont have to work 2 jobs and over 40 hours a week. I can live on unemployment and still bank money if I needed to.
I have been on this site for a long time. Only recently did I start a real estate site.
Let me explain this. If I create a real estate site so popular that I can sell homes myself (Like a flipper) without having to pay realtors 3%-5% commisions than it certainly pays for itself by saving me a few thousand. BTW its a US based site not just NC its that I have a local housing base to work with here.
Call me Clif or SPAM I dont mind. Enjoy your commute. ;)
Geez mitchell…you sound dumber than dogsh*t pal. No offense.
Hey Mitch (140)-
You’re not Cliffy or Spam. You’re a freeloader, cruising for business at the expense of a guy who busts it for pretty much nothing to provide something of use to a helluva lot of people.
Do you really think people here are too dense to see through you?
______________________________________________
The median U.S. existing home price edged up slightly in August to $224,500, an increase of 0.2 percent from August 2006.
_______________________________________________
Can anyone explain this?
#141 & #142
Yup Im so stupid that the The New York Times, Bloomberg, Rutgers, and the Asbury Park Press and the thousands of others that saw the writing on the wall agreed with me and moved.
Whatever you have to do convice yourself to sleep at night guys.
Wow, Rutgers set up a campus down in the Carolinas….neato.
Whats the New York Times gonna call themselves now that they are in NC….The NC Times?
#17….There will always be a small amount of pharma here, but the majority of it is already gone.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
??? Giant pharma firms are expanding their campuses in NJ…this is overstated.
“Hovnanian fire is “suspicious” again..
In reversal, Fire Department now says high-rise blaze is ’suspicious’”
I guess Ara didn’t come up with the right amount of money to pay the fire inspector.
Bloustein report:
http://policy.rutgers.edu/news/reports/RRR/RRR_October_2007.pdf
“The saddest thing about all this is that once we hit bottom, we’ll have to provide massive tax moratoriums, incentives and perks to attract corporations back into the state (if anything at all can be done to lure them). We’ll have to become a corporate tax haven as a “loss leader” in order to even have a semblance of an economy.”
More incentives… The Tax Foundation’s not a big fan, for what it’s worth, and I think their argument makes sense.
plz moderate #150 btw
i think when you imply that anyone who is concerned about the effects of illegal immigration is somehow a bigot, it brings the level of conversation down to childish name calling. it’s sort of like trying to shut someone down without offering meaningful solutions – while at the same time it seems to make the name-caller feel self-righteous.
Yup.
“You = racist” is not an argument. It’s just a rhetorical device aimed at shutting down the discussion.
We, NJ and US natives, have every right (if not responsibility) to debate and question the long term wisdom of importing unchecked a culture that’s not 100% compatible with our own. If you think “latinization” of the US will be positive, locate for me a Latin country that compares well with the rest of the world in terms of economic, technological, or scientific achievement. Is that our future?
If anyone thinks that the demographic shift caused by the mass importation of unskilled and uneducated poor people won’t have a huge impact on US culture and politics has not been thinking of the problem very much.
Trying to get another anti-$300 jeans thread started…
http://www.la2day.com/nightlife/the_price_of_fitting_in
JM
152
We, NJ and US natives, have every right (if not responsibility) to debate and question the long term wisdom of importing unchecked a culture that’s not 100% compatible with our own. If you think “latinization” of the US will be positive, locate for me a Latin country that compares well with the rest of the world in terms of economic, technological, or scientific achievement. Is that our future?
So it’s only people from Latin countries that come here? Then those from the Middle East are ok as are the Russians? Why is that?
108 Gary and 120 Hard Place:
If you got a good deal on rent, it is hard to justify buying given the rent vs price equation in most NJ towns. Especially in a stagnant and declining market. I am a happy renter. Sure I’d like granite counter tops and stainless steel appliances, but I am not going to mortgage my financial future to be a *Prowd Home Debtor(owner)*
#140- mitchell
at first some posts comparing nj to nc were a little interesting and maybe relevant. but after a while, they just got plain boring.
this is a nj real estate site. we all know that nc exists, we don’t need it jammed down our throats.
#154 So it’s only people from Latin countries that come here? Then those from the Middle East are ok as are the Russians? Why is that?
No, it isnt just people from latin countries. Its uncontrolled immigration consisting of low/no skill people. I am equally disdainful of illegal immigrants whether from russia, UK, middleast, Mexico, where ever!
Also any intelligent group would be wise to consider the cultural effect to their society by allowing uncontrolled mass immigration that is only allowed so that big business can have cheap/slave labor
Mitch (144)-
I sleep fine at night.
‘Cause I’m not glomming off somebody else’s hard work.
Nobody objects to anyone here pumping the glories of NC. I went to school at UNC and often rue the day I left Chapel Hill.
The objection is your trolling here for potential clients. Your game is terribly transparent.
Why don’t you just cop to the charge? You’re outed.
Essex (146)-
The Cheerwine Times.
Vodka (157)-
“Also any intelligent group would be wise to consider the cultural effect to their society by allowing uncontrolled mass immigration that is only allowed so that big business can have cheap/slave labor.”
I think it’s erroneous to assume that the US HAS a culture…other than mass consumerism and worship of celebrity. If we even had a common, meaningful shared culture, the debate would already have been engaged.
At this point, 90% of America can’t posit the question, much less engage in cultural debate.
Witness Tancredo’s crash-and-burn over the single issue of illegal immigration.
Shared culture? 75% of recent high school graduates in America think the US joined with Germany to fight Russia in WWII.
Well put as usual Clot.
CLotpoll #160
Generally i agree with you. The us has given up the majority of our culture for consumerism and has become strongly anti-intellectual. Some would argue that this has intentionally been promoted as it makes the general population easier to handle and easier to integrate into a global economy (not sure i agree with it, but have heard it posited before).
It still stands that as beleaguered as our culture has become recently, the current wave of immigrants as opposed to previous groups such as the early 1900’s, have shown no intention of assimilating into our society as awhole. That is the problem
Check Out Chunky Pam
Here is all that is left in NJ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jY4SF8xWKFo
Grim, thanks for the link to the report.
Vodka (164)-
“…the current wave of immigrants as opposed to previous groups such as the early 1900’s, have shown no intention of assimilating into our society as a whole. That is the problem.”
They have assimilated pretty well, as they’ve taken to petty criminality, abuse of consumer credit and stargazing just as well as the native population.
BTW, I’m one of those who thinks the promotion of consumerism is a deliberate ploy to make the populace easier to control. Principled, aware people trump sheeple…and cause trouble for the powerful.
The entire call-and-response rubric of public education is a de facto form of brainwashing. Even at the college level, original thought and dissent are not only treated as heresy, they are sometimes prosecuted as criminal behavior.
CLot #167
“The entire call-and-response rubric of public education is a de facto form of brainwashing. Even at the college level, original thought and dissent are not only treated as heresy, they are sometimes prosecuted as criminal behavior.”
This is one of the main reason my children will not see the inside of a public school. I personally have had run-in’s with teacher since elementary school because i tend to question everything and have rarely gone along with “just because”
Way OT, but I feel the need to dump some salt on the wounds of Yankee fans:
In the past three years, the Red Sox have pi$$ed away 267.5 million dollars on the following players:
JD Drew
Edgar Renteria
Julio Lugo
Dice-K
Matt Clement
Eric Gagne
Still, they win.
vodka (168)-
“This is one of the main reason my children will not see the inside of a public school. I personally have had run-in’s with teacher since elementary school because i tend to question everything and have rarely gone along with “just because”
How well do you think they will adjust to incarceration?
Advantages of being an illegal immigrant:
1. You dont have to do jury duty
2. You will never be subject to the draft (if there is one)
3. You are not subject to Megan’s law (try doing a background check on an illegal that just crossed the border).
good point clot, off to sweden for me and family, back to the mother land!!!
Greg (171)-
Maybe we should conscript illegal aliens, then use them to attack Iran.
(God, I hope Dubya doesn’t read this blog…)
173#, clotpoll, i second on this. at least send some to iraq.
all criminals should be sent to alaska. that will make other states safer.
clot,
do you realize that that is alreday being discussed, as well as citizen ship for joining the army and going to combat
vodka (175)-
Figures. I’d be willing to bet that the plot of every “B” movie made about the military in the past 10 years has made its way into DOD war-planning materials.
“…conscripted illegal aliens scraped off the streets of South Central LA…hardened into a crack commando unit…unleashed in a daring midnight raid on an Iraninan nuke facility…then granted citizenship upon their triumphant return. Starring J-Lo, as the long-suffering girlfriend of the entire unit…”
Brought to you by Taco Bell and the new 3/4 pound All-Gristle, Extra Cheese Chalupa.
Personally, I’d like to see a Cheech and Chong comeback movie…preferably set in Pakistan or Saudi Arabia.
I wonder what the Sharia law penalty is for possession of a bong.
And…if the current rate of the decline of Western civilization isn’t rapid enough for you:
Casey Serin is back. Look (if you must):
http://foreclosurehelpbook.com/
I wonder what the Sharia law penalty is for possession of a bong.
Death by stoning and not the fun kind either.
Ironically, the people who administer this penalty would be “stoners”.
Kidding aside, drug offenses are routinely punished by death in Iran.
Everybody must get stoned.
Did anyone see the Steinbrenner photo on the front of the Post today? Here is the link, but it doesn’t do it justice. The vacant gaze is just blood curdling. The fully undialated pupils just throttle you like a lightening bolt. You can’t look at it and you can’t look away……again this smaller version doesn’t do the actual paper copy justice…..
http://www.nypost.com/seven/10102007/frontback.htm
Just about time for that durable POA you’ve been calling for.
I can’t imagine him being in the same room as Scott Boras in a few weeks.
I personally have had run-in’s with teacher since elementary school
English teacher(s)?
141 Essex
“No offense.”
Always a sure sign that something offensive is being said. However, you’re right, ‘sex – he does sound as dumb as a box of hair.
158-162 Clot spins the hits!
#169
“Still, they win.”
win?
Won. Once.
I thought you were a Mets fan. How much have they pissed away?
patient (186)-
Not 267.5M in three years.
173#, clotpoll, i second on this. at least send some to iraq.
all criminals should be sent to alaska. that will make other states safer.
You are not real.
Amen to #76 Too bad Rutgers is a state school and won’t point the fingers in this direction. The pensions alone of the government and it’s massive employees will break the back of the replacement citizens. Legal or not, most of the immigrant population coming here is making 50% (If they are lucky) of a NJ teacher’s pension…and his/her taxes are supposed to fund it? NJ is a bad chess player…no end game.
I say sell Rutgers, not the Turnpike. In fact if you sell all the State schools NJ may be debt free.
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