Lowball! December 2007

Welcome to another edition of Lowball!

Lowball! takes a look at home sales from a different perspective. For those new to Lowball!, a lowball offer is when a buyer offers a significantly lower bid than asking in hopes that the seller accepts the offer. We take a list of home sales from the past month and pick out the sales that have the highest percentage difference between original list price and selling price.

To keep the list length reasonable, we’re going to use 20% as the minimum percentage off OLP to be considered a Lowball!

Caveat Emptor!

Bergen County

MLS Town OLP LP SP % off OLP $ off OLP
 241277   Wyckoff Twp.  $1,200,000    $840,000    $772,000    35.7%   $428,000  
 240289   East Rutherford Boro  $630,000    $459,000    $435,000    31.0%   $195,000  
 237865   Franklin Lakes Boro  $2,950,000    $2,950,000    $2,112,500    28.4%   $837,500  
 240653   Fair Lawn Boro  $524,900    $424,000    $385,000    26.7%   $139,900  
 235346   Lyndhurst Twp.  $609,900    $489,000    $450,000    26.2%   $159,900  
 242097   Garfield City  $399,000    $349,000    $295,000    26.1%   $104,000  
 241453   Wyckoff Twp.  $1,250,000    $1,025,000    $965,000    22.8%   $285,000  
 230922   Ramsey Boro  $849,925    $669,925    $659,000    22.5%   $190,925  
 243769   Franklin Lakes Boro  $2,900,000    $2,900,000    $2,275,000    21.6%   $625,000  

Essex County

MLS Town OLP LP SP % off OLP $ off OLP
 240147   Newark City  $159,900    $84,900    $83,000    48.1%   $76,900  
 240172   Newark City  $141,900    $84,900    $75,000    47.1%   $66,900  
 241360   East Orange City  $190,000    $131,500    $115,000    39.5%   $75,000  
 241534   Livingston Twp.  $750,000    $500,000    $500,000    33.3%   $250,000  
 240451   Belleville Twp.  $194,900    $172,500    $136,000    30.2%   $58,900  
 243097   Millburn Twp.  $1,050,000    $1,050,000    $740,000    29.5%   $310,000  
 241921   North Caldwell Boro  $570,000    $499,900    $405,000    28.9%   $165,000  
 241309   Newark City  $259,900    $209,900    $190,000    26.9%   $69,900  
 237819   Bloomfield Twp.  $339,900    $289,900    $252,000    25.9%   $87,900  
 237719   Livingston Twp.  $799,000    $639,000    $595,000    25.5%   $204,000  
 243467   South Orange Village Twp.  $1,259,000    $998,900    $950,000    24.5%   $309,000  
 245075   Belleville Twp.  $378,170    $378,170    $288,170    23.8%   $90,000  
 244199   Newark City  $149,900    $124,900    $117,000    21.9%   $32,900  
 242822   Millburn Twp.  $729,000    $609,000    $570,000    21.8%   $159,000  
 239670   West Orange Twp.  $459,000    $378,876    $360,000    21.6%   $99,000  
 239608   Belleville Twp.  $455,000    $369,000    $358,000    21.3%   $97,000  
 241118   Fairfield Twp.  $539,000    $475,000    $425,000    21.2%   $114,000  
 244247   West Orange Twp.  $379,000    $359,000    $300,000    20.8%   $79,000  

Morris County

MLS Town OLP LP SP % off OLP $ off OLP
 232870   Chatham Twp.  $1,995,000    $1,495,000    $916,000    54.1%   $1,079,000  
 241989   Harding Twp.  $2,195,000    $1,600,000    $1,250,000    43.1%   $945,000  
 237165   Butler Boro  $399,900    $319,900    $270,000    32.5%   $129,900  
 240684   Montville Twp.  $1,225,000    $999,900    $860,000    29.8%   $365,000  
 244038   Morris Twp.  $939,000    $750,000    $660,000    29.7%   $279,000  
 241269   Riverdale Boro  $355,000    $290,000    $255,000    28.2%   $100,000  
 242074   Lincoln Park Boro  $349,900    $259,900    $255,000    27.1%   $94,900  
 242169   Denville Twp.  $310,000    $284,900    $230,000    25.8%   $80,000  
 238321   Mendham Twp.  $1,199,000    $949,000    $900,000    24.9%   $299,000  
 232932   Randolph Twp.  $550,000    $435,000    $415,000    24.5%   $135,000  
 239620   Denville Twp.  $429,999    $334,900    $325,000    24.4%   $104,999  
 242631   Chester Boro  $525,000    $450,000    $400,000    23.8%   $125,000  
 236764   Dover Town  $359,900    $299,900    $275,000    23.6%   $84,900  
 241150   Netcong Boro  $299,900    $225,000    $230,000    23.3%   $69,900  
 242580   Lincoln Park Boro  $405,000    $329,900    $315,000    22.2%   $90,000  
 240309   Parsippany-Troy Hills Twp.  $399,900    $337,500    $315,000    21.2%   $84,900  
 239036   Mount Olive Twp.  $459,000    $390,000    $365,000    20.5%   $94,000  
 241513   Wharton Boro  $249,900    $215,000    $198,940    20.4%   $50,960  

Passaic County

MLS Town OLP LP SP % off OLP $ off OLP
 236418   Wayne Twp.  $169,900    $79,900    $55,000    67.6%   $114,900  
 241630   Wayne Twp.  $69,900    $69,900    $45,160    35.4%   $24,740  
 241505   Haledon Boro  $529,900    $449,900    $383,000    27.7%   $146,900  
 241396   Pompton Lakes Boro  $419,900    $345,000    $305,000    27.4%   $114,900  
 241642   Passaic City  $289,000    $229,900    $215,000    25.6%   $74,000  
 240484   West Milford Twp.  $135,000    $135,000    $103,000    23.7%   $32,000  
 239170   Wayne Twp.  $1,389,000    $1,199,900    $1,085,000    21.9%   $304,000  
 243664   Wayne Twp.  $924,900    $799,999    $725,000    21.6%   $199,900  
 243473   Hawthorne Boro  $489,000    $429,900    $385,000    21.3%   $104,000  
 242706   Clifton City  $389,900    $359,000    $310,000    20.5%   $79,900  
 239972   Paterson City  $439,900    $380,000    $350,000    20.4%   $89,900  

Somerset County

MLS Town OLP LP SP % off OLP $ off OLP
 2451946   Watchung Boro  $975,000    $775,000    $620,000    36.4%   $355,000  
 2392687   Peapack Gladstone Boro  $499,000    $399,000    $340,000    31.9%   $159,000  
 2416743   Hillsborough Twp.  $374,900    $299,900    $277,500    26.0%   $97,400  
 2433101   North Plainfield Boro  $315,000    $279,000    $235,000    25.4%   $80,000  
 2446635   Bound Brook Boro  $310,000    $274,900    $235,000    24.2%   $75,000  
 2403792   Bridgewater Twp.  $560,000    $455,000    $427,000    23.8%   $133,000  
 2396187   Watchung Boro  $1,499,000    $1,499,000    $1,155,000    22.9%   $344,000  
 2418420   Bound Brook Boro  $339,900    $299,900    $265,000    22.0%   $74,900  

Sussex County

MLS Town OLP LP SP % off OLP $ off OLP
 2236725   Fredon Twp.  $1,100,000    $890,000    $675,000    38.6%   $425,000  
 2425734   Newton Town  $334,900    $219,900    $219,000    34.6%   $115,900  
 2418768   Hopatcong Boro  $384,900    $269,900    $265,000    31.2%   $119,900  
 2419901   Stillwater Twp.  $299,999    $229,000    $219,900    26.7%   $80,099  
 2306895   Andover Boro  $319,000    $299,000    $236,000    26.0%   $83,000  
 2323293   Hardyston Twp.  $679,900    $549,000    $508,000    25.3%   $171,900  
 2421170   Byram Twp.  $354,900    $294,900    $265,920    25.1%   $88,980  
 2423114   Byram Twp.  $319,000    $263,000    $243,000    23.8%   $76,000  
 2395268   Hopatcong Boro  $399,997    $329,000    $305,000    23.7%   $94,997  
 2408464   Vernon Twp.  $265,000    $229,900    $205,000    22.6%   $60,000  
 2370721   Hampton Twp.  $319,900    $280,000    $250,000    21.9%   $69,900  
 2415402   Hampton Twp.  $274,900    $240,000    $215,000    21.8%   $59,900  
 2409837   Frankford Twp.  $239,000    $197,000    $187,500    21.5%   $51,500  
 2411234   Vernon Twp.  $275,000    $229,000    $217,000    21.1%   $58,000  
 2451599   Lafayette Twp.  $283,000    $274,000    $225,000    20.5%   $58,000  

Hunterdon County

MLS Town OLP LP SP % off OLP $ off OLP
 2367977   Hampton Boro  $325,000    $245,000    $240,000    26.2%   $85,000  
 2399454   Clinton Twp.  $550,000    $479,900    $409,000    25.6%   $141,000  
 2410043   Clinton Twp.  $389,900    $304,900    $292,000    25.1%   $97,900  
 2388301   Tewksbury Twp.  $2,095,000    $1,699,950    $1,611,600    23.1%   $483,400  
 2392418   Readington Twp.  $924,000    $750,000    $715,000    22.6%   $209,000  
 2443444   High Bridge Boro  $242,000    $229,900    $190,000    21.5%   $52,000  
 2428687   East Amwell Twp.  $347,500    $309,900    $275,000    20.9%   $72,500  
 2400049   Readington Twp.  $575,000    $525,000    $460,000    20.0%   $115,000  

Warren County

MLS Town OLP LP SP % off OLP $ off OLP
 2414608   Phillipsburg Town  $116,900    $69,900    $33,000    71.8%   $83,900  
 2368439   Washington Twp.  $301,900    $214,900    $195,000    35.4%   $106,900  
 2430255   Belvidere Twp.  $94,900    $79,900    $65,000    31.5%   $29,900  
 2446890   Oxford Twp.  $26,000    $22,000    $19,000    26.9%   $7,000  
 2380755   Frelinghuysen Twp.  $599,000    $479,000    $447,500    25.3%   $151,500  
 2424875   Washington Twp.  $249,000    $199,999    $192,000    22.9%   $57,000  
 2431122   Blairstown Twp.  $324,900    $289,900    $255,000    21.5%   $69,900  
 2365615   Franklin Twp.  $225,000    $225,000    $180,000    20.0%   $45,000  

Union County

MLS Town OLP LP SP % off OLP $ off OLP
 2436996   Elizabeth City  $499,999    $350,000    $300,000    40.0%   $199,999  
 2452459   Springfield Twp.  $499,999    $349,999    $321,000    35.8%   $178,999  
 2419493   Union Twp.  $468,850    $369,850    $340,000    27.5%   $128,850  
 2409663   Plainfield City  $232,000    $169,000    $169,000    27.2%   $63,000  
 2434622   New Providence Boro  $579,000    $500,000    $425,000    26.6%   $154,000  
 2242383   Roselle Boro  $324,900    $249,900    $240,000    26.1%   $84,900  
 2318447   Elizabeth City  $344,900    $279,900    $260,000    24.6%   $84,900  
 2391449   Elizabeth City  $440,000    $369,000    $338,000    23.2%   $102,000  
 2412073   Cranford Twp.  $485,000    $419,000    $375,000    22.7%   $110,000  
 2439139   Elizabeth City  $400,000    $400,000    $310,000    22.5%   $90,000  
 2426297   Berkeley Heights Twp.  $665,000    $549,000    $525,000    21.1%   $140,000  
 2250306   Elizabeth City  $415,000    $379,900    $330,000    20.5%   $85,000  
 2444710   Rahway City  $274,900    $249,900    $220,000    20.0%   $54,900  
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30 Responses to Lowball! December 2007

  1. grim says:

    Looks like I had a bug in my extract/reformat script, I cut off the last digit of the MLS number for some of these.

    If you need the full number, just let me know.

  2. gw says:

    Do you have any data from Mercer or Middlesex counties?

  3. Bubbles says:

    Good Morning Grim …and thank you!!!!

  4. grim says:

    gw,

    Sorry, but I don’t belong to the MLS systems that cover those areas.

  5. Ann says:

    Wow.

    For Bergen, with the except of those two F Lakes houses, it seems that the sellers do the majority of the price cutting before they give in and sell. Seems to demonstrate that going in thinking you’re going to get 25% off the current list price is unrealistic. The sellers have to get there themselves.

  6. ReadgntnDude says:

    Grim,

    I don’t have access to MLS, could you provide addresses for the 2 Readington (Hunterdon) Properties.

    (A long-time lurker, thinking about bolting from NJ)

    Your site is a wonderful public service!

    RD

  7. 3b says:

    #5 The sellers have to get there themselves.

    Yes, potential buyers as in bidders have to help them get there.

  8. Ann says:

    #7 3b

    I agree with you. The more reasonable bids that sellers receive, the quicker they may come to reality. Right now, people just aren’t even trying to make bids, people seem to be waiting for the prices to come down.

    However, I still think 20% off bids have a very slim chance of being accepted. Sure, later, the numbers end up being 20% off from OLP to sale price, but the sellers did it themselves via LP.

  9. bergenbuyer says:

    I’ve made multiple bids in the past 2 years and every one of them precipitated a drop in the asking price besides one. That seller didn’t drop asking once for 6 months and then withdrew the listing. It was overpriced in Jan 07 and it will be way overpriced when they re-list in Jan 08.

  10. grim says:

    I’ll post the XLS tables later.

    Realize that I simply sort by the % off OLP field and skim the top portion off.

    If I redo the calculation to give me a % off LP, the results are entirely different.

  11. grim says:

    9 South Ryland Road – $460k
    14 Heath – $715k

  12. Hard Place says:

    Grim –

    Is there anyway to just post the addresses of the lowballs in your spreadsheet? Or are you prevented from doing so?

    I’m sure it’s a lot of work to do it on an individual request basis. Would love to see the addresses for the Millburn & Chatham lowballs. Thanks in advance!

  13. Hard Place says:

    Interesting to note that these lowballs are taking place in the under $1mm homes category. Previously most lowballs were in the over $1mm home category as supply there was very large. Now this is filtering down to lower priced homes and ones that can qualify for conventional mortgages as well. Definitely a downward filtering price effect from my observation.

  14. ReadgntnDude says:

    Thanks Much!

  15. 3b says:

    #8 AnN: I think , or at least for myself, waiting is a strategy , sort of like wait for them to become wounded, lower the price, still no sale, then I bid.

    Whether it works or not, remains to be seen.

    If the seller thinks they have the upper hand, they win, if they have to reduce their OLP, then they become weakend.

    I will be bidding on a house late Jan, early Feb, I fully expect to be rebuffed, initally. B I ut have no doubt that as the year progresses, I will be successful.

    I will keep all posted.

  16. Ann says:

    3b

    I think sellers have to get there themselves personally, but every reasonable bid that is put in by buyers helps them get into reality. We put a 16% lowball in (roughly a 2004 comp) that was utterly rejected complete with insults thrown back at us. But I’m sure we chipped away for the next person who tries. As someone said on here, sellers see silence as affirmation.

  17. Eagle says:

    I usually do not have a problem if the sellers do not lower their listing price. If the house has been on the market for a while, they will still be open to lower offers, and the higher price may keep away other potential bidders (as well as increase the likelihood of the house staying on the market even longer)

  18. Ann says:

    17 Eagle

    Do you say that from personal experience? I’m not sure if you are an agent, or buyer…

    I see a peak-or-higher price as a sign that you’re dealing with stubborn sellers that are not in reality, making it less likely that a buyer will get the house with a low offer (let’s say 10 to 15% off). Add in a high days on market, and I’m convinced of it.

  19. PGC's wife says:

    Thanks grim.

    #10, does that mean re-lists don’t make it into the lowball category, i.e. if they re-list at a lower price rather then doing a price reduction on the same listing #?

    Also, just curious do you have an average DOM for lowballs above?

    Anne – I think you are right, but we’re pretty bold and have bid $450 on a $650 list. Trust me when I say $450 is spot on -MLS ID# 2420721 in Sparta (Sussex Co). We knew our chances were slim, and didn’t get it, but we feel we did a bit of public service providing valuable seller feedback (current list is $599 or $2500/month rent). Ages ago (20+ years) my Aunt and Uncle bid $150k on a $200k listing. My Uncle almost sh1t himself when they accepted the offer. He put in lowball bids to shut my Aunt up who was house hunting without him.

  20. MrK says:

    Grim, ugly numbers. Could you post the addresses for the two Millburn Twp properties? Thx.

  21. grim says:

    11 Bruce Circle – $740k
    22 Canterbury – $570k

  22. Wendy says:

    MLS ID# 2424370
    I got lowball offer accepted:
    Original price: 1129000
    LP: 995000
    accepted price: 910000.

    Home inspection result: a lot of termite. I hesitate to continue.

  23. MT says:

    I always check the property’s highest price(Around 2006 comp) and make 22% lowball offer. I haven’t suceeded yet. At the depression era the house price came down about 30% from the top and hit the bottom. Let see how much % will come down till the bottom.

  24. Hard Place says:

    Wow, what happened to 11 Bruce Circle?

    This looks like a major lowball for Short Hills.

    Thanks Grim!

  25. Hard Place says:

    Was the spreadsheet posted for the lowball? Did I miss it?

  26. grim says:

    Sorry, changed the program I used to pull the data and I don’t have the spreadsheets readily available this time. If you let me know which county, I can recompile it for you.

  27. Dan Ducharme says:

    I am glad that I am not a seller right now. I am looking to purchase late this year and will certainly not buy anything unless it costs me the same net amount or less to purchase over renting a place. I fully expect to see another 20 percent downfall in Southern California this year!

  28. Hard Place says:

    Grim,

    I’d be interested in seeing the Essex & Morris data.

    Much appreciated.

  29. RayC says:

    Grim,

    If you get a chance I am looking for sales data in Union County, I’m looking mostly in Mountainside and Westfield. Thanks.

    Ray

Comments are closed.