Spring 2008 Trends – Short Sales

Posted on March 27, 2008 by grim

Source: A Realtor (R) Association Newsletter

Need I say more?

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39 Responses to Spring 2008 Trends – Short Sales

  1. grim says:
    March 27, 2008 at 5:34 pm

    Need I say more?

    But I will.

    If the market is so great, why are TWO short sale seminars sold out?

    Not only are these things sold out across the state, but local associations are adding MORE classes.

    The hypocrisy and doubletalk are unbelievable.

  2. grim says:
    March 27, 2008 at 5:44 pm

    From Forbes:

    Fire Sale
    As banks seize more properties, they’re starting to cut deals.

    Last summer Wells Fargo was in a bind: A Rochester Hills, Mich. couple had taken out a $465,000 mortgage they couldn’t pay back without selling their home. But no one was willing to pay such a high price. So the bank tried to recoup the debt in a foreclosure sale. Still no takers. In February, after watching prices in this Detroit suburb crater, the bank threw up its hands, selling the four-bedroom brick colonial for $325,000. “There are definitely deals to be had out there,” says Alex R. Inglis, 39, who just bought the home.

    Banks are rediscovering that old industry saw about the first loss being the best. After months of spurning so-called short sales, in which they have to accept less than they’re owed, banks in some communities are throwing in the towel and cutting deals. Realtors, investors and credit counselors in a few hard-hit areas like Phoenix, Las Vegas and Detroit say banks are not only approving more short sales but are even calling to revive old rejected offers. If the trend spreads, it could mean the crisis in housing finance could come to a peaceful conclusion without any taxpayer bailout. Goldman Sachs (nyse: GS – news – people ) estimates that if prices fall another 15% this year, the number of upside-down homeowners (i.e., owing more than their house is worth) will jump from 9 million now to 15 million.

    Las Vegas broker Robert Tracey says banks are not only approving more short sales but are also doing it faster–in three weeks instead of last year’s six. The National Short Sale Center, which helps short buyers negotiate with banks, says Countrywide approved the sale of a Mesa, Ariz. home recently in only 25 days–though it was taking a 27% hit. The Short Sale Center says three-quarters of its short offers are approved now, up from maybe half six months ago. Says Pam B. Canada of nonprofit NeighborWorks in Sacramento, Calif., “Before, people on the phone at banks didn’t even have the authority to negotiate. Now they’re calling us with numbers.”

  3. crossroads says:
    March 27, 2008 at 5:55 pm

    would it be worth while to get an re liscense just so you don’t have to deal w/ a realtor? what would your costs be?

    I just looked @ a house on a great street. the house had an addition that was just slapped on. no architecture was involved. the flow was terrible. the kitchen was outdated. horrible wallpaper everywhere. no yard for the kids. 1 new bath. no garage or shed for outside storage. Still the house had space, just misdirected. hardwood under nasty shag carpets . the price was low but not low enough.

    the realtor said the house was a steal. I asked at what price? he said “at the current list price” . I said, if its that great a builder would by it. He didn’t agree and said something like, thats not happening now. He tried to defend the house by saying it had high taxes that meant it was a good house or something.

    I guess we will see. I hate dealing w/ these people

  4. chicagofinance says:
    March 27, 2008 at 5:58 pm

    OT Delgado:

    The Mets are keeping Tatis over Brady Clark and Gotay, because of Delgado. Again hearing that he cannot touch any fastball middle-in and virtually all his spring training hits are to left field. It appears he is going to look like Vaughn or Floyd at best in their last Met seasons….

  5. grim says:
    March 27, 2008 at 6:01 pm

    would it be worth while to get an re liscense just so you don’t have to deal w/ a realtor? what would your costs be?

    No way.

    You’ll need to take a class ($$$) as well as take the exam and get fingerprinted ($$$). If you pass you get to pay a fee for your license ($$$). At that point you need to put your license with a broker (you can’t just hold it yourself). Most brokers aren’t going to take you as a part timer doing your own deal, so your license get stuffed into a “referral agency”. At that point, even if you want to do your own deals, you’ll probably be stuck working with a full timer ($$$).

    If you do stick your license with a broker who will let you off on your own, there is a good chance you’ll get stiffed with any number of desk fees, advertising fees, overhead fees, fee charging fees, etc. Not to mention that you’ll need to join the Realtors ($$$), and join an MLS ($$$). If you want to actually see a place yourself, you’ll need a lockbox key ($$$).

  6. grim says:
    March 27, 2008 at 6:04 pm

    As a large agency, fee-based income is probably pretty darn good. Do they even need to sell homes or can they just profit off agent churn?

    What do you think the margin is on a gold sport coat?

  7. grim says:
    March 27, 2008 at 6:41 pm

    From MarketWatch:

    Radian to eliminate stated income, stated asset programs

    Radian Guaranty Inc. will not insure mortgages originated under “stated income” and “stated asset” programs starting April 30, the mortgage insurer said late Thursday. “While certain forms of alternative documentation used to verify assets and income are appropriate with a disciplined underwriting process, the stated programs will no longer be insurable as a result of poor performance,” said Radian in a message to clients. Stated income mortgages are loans that don’t require documentation of a borrower’s income. Radian Guaranty is the mortgage insurance subsidiary of Radian Group.

  8. grim says:
    March 27, 2008 at 7:02 pm

    Closter Comp Killer

    520 Homans Ave, Closter NJ
    Purchased: 1/27/2006
    Purchase Price: $1,650,000

    Sold: 3/26/2008
    Sale Price: $1,400,000
    15% under 2006 purchase price

  9. grim says:
    March 27, 2008 at 7:17 pm

    From DealBook:

    Co-Heads of Citi’s Prime Brokerage Leave in Shake-Up

    Citigroup dismissed the popular co-heads of its prime brokerage group on Thursday in the latest shake-up of senior management at its embattled investment bank.

    Ali Hackett and Tom Tesauro, co-heads of global equity finance and prime brokerage, left Wednesday to “pursue other opportunities,” according to an internal memorandum. They are being replaced by Nick Roe, who had been running Citi’s European equity finance and prime brokerage, who had reported to them. Mr. Roe will remain in London and retain responsibility for Citi’s European prime brokerage in addition to overseeing the global operations.

  10. Confused In NJ says:
    March 27, 2008 at 7:34 pm

    Confused In NJ Says:
    March 27th, 2008 at 7:34 pm
    320.chicagofinance Says:
    March 27th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
    As we have noted here, the leaders of job creation in the United States are small businesses. You need to incentivize the small entrepreneurs to make that marginal decision and keep more of the spoils….it is capitalism and it works…..think broadly

    Then allow Capital Gains Rate only for investment in Wholy Owned US Companies whose factories are exclusively in the US employing US citizens. Investment in Pseudo Global US companies with Outsourced Factories and Outsourced Employees can be taxed at the Earned Income Rate.

  11. grim says:
    March 27, 2008 at 8:14 pm

    From Dow Jones:

    Assured Guaranty Re-Examining Countrywide Loans It Insured

    As the U.S. housing downturn continues, Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) is re-examining lending documents for some of the $2.1 billion in guarantees it wrote for home equity lines of credit issued by Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC) to see if the loans meet Countrywide’s stated terms.

    If they don’t, Assured Guaranty will ask Countrywide to make good on the loans either by taking them back or replacing them with better loans.

    The examination revolves around “representations and warranties” in the contracts themselves, Bob Mills, Assured Guaranty’s chief financial officer, said Thursday. “We are evaluating that situation and documentation.”

    Problems that could invalidate a loan would include whether the housing values, credit scores and terms were as promised, Mills said. He said that some of the current mortgage problem nationwide was driven by poor underwriting decisions and a proliferation of riskier loans, such as low- and no- documentation loans, low teaser rates and relaxed credit scoring.

  12. John says:
    March 27, 2008 at 8:35 pm

    For Lennar, the average sales price of homes delivered dropped to $278,000, down from $303,000 in the year-ago period, partly due to higher sales incentives offered to homebuyers. The company averaged $48,000 in incentives per home delivered in the first quarter, compared to $45,500 per home delivered in the first quarter of 2007.

  13. cooper says:
    March 27, 2008 at 8:36 pm

    Cross #3, the Realtor population probably more than doubled in the last 6-7 years, the majority being the proverbial “used car salesman” (no offense)… with any luck half will drop out of the biz completely by the end of this debacle. Defiantly do not get a license, in addition to grim #5, you’ll have every mortgage/marketing solicitor hounding you. If you are looking for a house right now short sales are the way to go. Can someone help me understand the story with derivatives?

  14. grim says:
    March 27, 2008 at 8:39 pm

    If you are looking for a house right now short sales are the way to go.

    REO

  15. Frank says:
    March 27, 2008 at 8:45 pm

    Short sales and REOs are brutal for banks, they are selling homes for less than half of the appraisal value. It’s not looking good for them, may be they’ll remember not to make dumb loans in the future.

  17. CAIBC says:
    March 27, 2008 at 8:50 pm

    throw those appraisal values out the window…..irrelevant now….

    those were untrue anyway since its the market that sets values and not some realtor or appraiser….

  18. grim says:
    March 27, 2008 at 8:54 pm

    According to LoanPerformance, some 12,350 securitized Subprime and Alt-A loans were in foreclosure in NJ as of Febuary. The total number is likely to be much higher once we include the non-pooled loans.

    If that isn’t bad enough, another 13,400 are 60+ days late.

    No lack of new REO and short sale supply for the market.

    The deterioration in the past 6 months has been tremendous.

  19. Pat says:
    March 27, 2008 at 8:55 pm

    Can someone help me understand the story with derivatives?

    Definition:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derivative_%28finance%29

  21. Pat says:
    March 27, 2008 at 9:08 pm

    Jayne, I have to tell you this.

    I got this invitation to a furniture store Event. Free sugar cookies and fresh lemonade on Saturday. Perked me right up.

    There was a coupon on there for free delivery. So I started looking at the glossy. “How much stuff could we get for 2 grand?” I asked my husband. “We could really use a new table. I bought this one in the Sears returns section in 1987 when I got my first place, Honey.”

    “I know. You’ve told me that every week since 1999. Go buy a table.”

    “But if I get a new table, I want new chairs and a different rug. And we really do need a new couch. That one has George Hair (the big cat) all under the bottom.”

    “Get new furniture.”

    “But, Honey, I don’t want to get new stuff until we buy a house. What if it doesn’t fit?”

    “So, we’ve been over this before,” he said, “it’ll be for the basement.”

    “Aw..I don’t need the 300 calories, anyway.”

  22. Frank says:
    March 27, 2008 at 9:13 pm

    Look at the foreclosures in Roselle Park, it seems that the entire town is in foreclosure.

    http://www.realtytrac.com/MapSearch/MapSearch/MapSearch.aspx?txtZip=07204

  23. Frank says:
    March 27, 2008 at 9:17 pm

    #18,
    grim with Wall St. jobs gone, NJ RE market is going they way of CA, 50% off on your lowest price if you can find a sucker.

  24. Pat says:
    March 27, 2008 at 9:47 pm

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601093&sid=aJAZU6JquPio&refer=home

    Home Sales Fall in Hedge Fund Rich Connecticut Town

    “January and February home sales fell 29 percent to 75 houses in the town that’s home to more than 100 hedge funds…”

  25. Pat says:
    March 27, 2008 at 9:50 pm

    Here’s what’s coming your way in the next six months.

    90 percent of sales are under $300k. Maybe one over $500k.

    This is not a prediction. I’m looking at my zip in Zillow 19067, picking a house and sorting comps. It’s pathetic.

    How is anybody in real estate paying their bills?

  26. Sean says:
    March 27, 2008 at 9:53 pm

    re: (18) Grim what percentage of theose homes are listed on the MLS?

  27. HEHEHE says:
    March 27, 2008 at 9:57 pm

    Xavier baby, one more to the Final Four!

  28. rhymingrealtor says:
    March 27, 2008 at 10:18 pm

    Jim,

    I went to a short sale seminar, I had already learned alot from a friend of a friend who has been buying short sales. I left that seminar with the feeling that the only person who comes out ahead in these deals are the realtors. According to what was taught there this is a great way to save their credit. They went over tatics to convince sellers to go this route instead of foreclosure.
    I don’t see it. Of course I am thinking/listening as a person who’s been there. I was trying to think of a way an agent could have come to me back then and convinced me to
    1.Show my home
    2.Have to move at closing
    3.Not get any money
    4.Not really save my credit
    The way I looked at it was I’m not getting anything, your not getting anything and I am taking my sweet time getting out of here. And keeping the ability to go back up to the moment the sheriff padlocked the place.
    I don’t have the ability to convince people short sales are the way to go. I am looking for an about.com article that says short sales are the same kind of credit hit as a foreclosure. I came upon a couple weeks ago and can’t find it right now.

    KL

  29. Mikeinwaiting says:
    March 27, 2008 at 10:19 pm

    Frank 22 That can’t be but it is.Is the whole town on the block.I don’t know that town is it a bad place?

  30. Pat says:
    March 27, 2008 at 10:34 pm

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080327/ts_afp/germanybankingfianancecompanydistressikb_080327172949
    Subprime-hit German lender faces shareholder wrath
    “You took my money,” another accused….

    “They are completely incompetent,” said shareholder Dieter Eisele, including the government, the central bank and regulatory authorities among those who he said bore responsibility for the debacle.”

    Somehow, it sounds better auf Deutsch,
    “Sie sind Nieten in Nadelstreifen.”

    That one kind of gets the prison stripes picture going.

  31. chicagofinance says:
    March 27, 2008 at 10:48 pm

    Confused In NJ Says:
    March 27th, 2008 at 7:34 pm
    Confused In NJ Says:
    March 27th, 2008 at 7:34 pm
    320.chicagofinance Says:
    March 27th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
    As we have noted here, the leaders of job creation in the United States are small businesses. You need to incentivize the small entrepreneurs to make that marginal decision and keep more of the spoils….it is capitalism and it works…..think broadly

    Then allow Capital Gains Rate only for investment in Wholy Owned US Companies whose factories are exclusively in the US employing US citizens. Investment in Pseudo Global US companies with Outsourced Factories and Outsourced Employees can be taxed at the Earned Income Rate.

    confuse: see my answer in the other thread

  33. njpatient says:
    March 28, 2008 at 12:27 am

    It’s going to be a fun year.

  34. njpatient says:
    March 28, 2008 at 12:33 am

    Caligula may not have helped Malcolm Mcdowell’s career, but it sure didn’t harm Helen Mirren’s. What a babe!
    Peter O’Toole lasted pretty well, too. Of course, he was cast for his name…

  35. Punch My Ticket says:
    March 28, 2008 at 2:56 am

    If you think Helen Mirren was a babe in Caligula, find a copy of Age of Consent from ten years earlier.

  36. cooper says:
    March 28, 2008 at 7:15 am

    Pat Stu thanks for the help with derivatives-

    #28 Rhyming, I would also love to see that article. Sounds a bit off though, the way it was explained to me was: Foreclosure= 20 years of credit hell – short sale = you will be whole after a few years. anyone know for sure?

  37. Clotpoll says:
    March 28, 2008 at 11:29 am

    grim (11)-

    Ah, the next step: mortgage insurers refusing to make payoffs on defaults, due to fraudulent underwriting.

    I am not an expert on this subject, but I bet the insurers can make a case and make their decisions not to pay stick.

  38. Clotpoll says:
    March 28, 2008 at 11:33 am

    punch (35)-

    Helen Mirren is a babe right now.

  39. Clotpoll says:
    March 28, 2008 at 1:06 pm

    cooper (36)-

    I actually called a senior underwriter I know to get the skinny on this.

    She informs that certain companies will actually report deed-in-lieu or short sales AS FORECLOSURES! That means a borrower who deed-in-lieus or short sales could well end up with a credit report that reads “foreclosure”! In terms of credit scoring, or a borrower’s ability to rebuild credit, there is NO DIFFERENCE among deed-in-lieu, short sale or actual foreclosure; at about 24 months past the event, the borrower can usually begin to qualify for certain loans.

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