Weekend Open Discussion

This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.

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218 Responses to Weekend Open Discussion

  1. Mitchell says:

    Essex Judging by your post of #380 you care way too much about spelling and grammar on the internet to have corrected yourself when we all could determine what you were trying to say.

    I’ll take a Zero.

  2. grim says:

    Fitch downgrades MBIA

  3. grim says:

    Downgrade Friday!

    From the WSJ:

    Moody’s Downgrades Ratings
    On Merrill Alt-A Tranches
    By JOHN FLOWERS
    April 4, 2008 2:31 p.m.

    Moody’s Investor Service downgraded the ratings of 52 tranches from 12 deals issued by Merrill Lynch & Co. made up primarily of Alt-A mortgages.

    Twenty of those cut remain on review for further downgrade, and Moody’s said 56 tranches not cut could be downgraded.

    The deals — five each from 2006 and 2007 and two from 2005 — largely consist of Alt-A mortgage loans, ones being prime and subprime and were typically issued for borrowers that didn’t fully document income or assets. Moody’s didn’t disclose the balances of the loans in the tranches.

    As the credit crunch hit full-steam in August, investors’ resistance to buying any mortgages deemed risky soared because of a sharp rise in delinquencies. Loan pools were bundled into securities and sold to investors, but the securities’ values have slumped of late. Worst affected have been bonds that are made up of the more aggressive type of Alt-A mortgages, such as interest-only loans that allow homeowners to postpone principal payments and loans issued in 2006 and part of 2007.

  4. kettle1 says:

    from previous thread…

    nj PATIENT,

    we are just at the plateau of oil,
    natural gas and condensible liquids are another facet. You can also debate wether peak oil+ NG + condensibles are the saem as peak energy or can we shift our energy production to another method and surpass our current energy production. I think we can, from a technical stand point, but i am not sure it will happen from a social stand point. It would require to much long term planning that those in power refuse to do. Even joe shmoe needs to look ahead somewhat but good luck getting a soccer mom to notice this.

    I heard an interview on NPR this morning and they were asking PA resident who they might vote for in the Dem primary. One woman complained that the Rep’s had not brought energy prices down and the DEMS could. She is in for a nasty surprise.

    Nom’s idea on a “communal” farm/residential plot is ahead of its time

  5. chicagofinance says:

    mr potter Says:
    April 4th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
    Muni Bonds less than Par !!

    Just got a call from my broker from a “reputable” IB. Was informed that the muni bonds they put me in were still ill-liquid. And got an – “oh by the way”. Since they are ill-liquid, the SEC is making us value them on the March statement and dont be suprised to see a range of .80 to .95 cents on the dollar. Beauitiful…

    These same as cash investments aint same as cash…….

    Next call was to my attorney…….

    Harry:
    You are at UBS…the others are holding par…

  6. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    MBIA Loses AAA Insurer Rating From Fitch Over Capital

    Fitch Ratings cut MBIA Inc.’s insurance rating to AA from AAA, saying the bond insurer no longer has enough capital to warrant the top ranking.

    MBIA, the world’s largest bond insurer, would need as much as $3.8 billion more in capital to deserve an AAA, New York- based Fitch said today in a report. The outlook is negative, Fitch said.

    Fitch issued the new, lower rating even though Armonk, New York-based MBIA asked the ratings company last month to stop assessing its credit worthiness. The two companies disagree over how much capital MBIA needs to absorb losses on the bonds it insures.

    “It will be difficult for MBIA to stabilize its credit trend until the company can more effectively limit the downside risk” from collateralized debt obligations, Fitch said in the report.

    MBIA’s long-term rating was cut to A from AA, Fitch said.

  7. kettle1 says:

    patient,

    Can you imagine what would happen in the talking heads actually acknowledged that we have reached peak oil? do you realize that that also admits that we have reached at least a local limit to economic growth. Economic growth is based on energy. Can you imagine a discussion on fox news of how gas/ oil/ natural gas/ food prices are going up and will not be coming back down in the near future? that airline travel will probably become the domain of the rich once again over the next decade? politicians cannot admit this,no one would believe them.

    would your friends believe you Nj patient if you mentioned this? most would brush you off.

  8. gary says:

    The housing bubble is a bunch of bullsh*t. A realtor told me.

    http://biz.yahoo.com/usnews/080404/04_the_housing_bust_a_statistical_portrait.html

  9. BC Bob says:

    kettle [383],

    Cattle ranchers and hog producers are liquidating their herds at breckneck speed, due to the sky high feed costs. Supplies will be extremely tight, next year. Wait until you see these prices, about a year out. Go buy some long dated calls.

    High food costs are here to stay.

    ALL DISCLAIMERS.

  10. SG says:

    The Housing Bust: a Statistical Portrait

    Percentage of all mortgages bundled into securities, 1994: 55.8 percent; 2007: 74.2 percent

    Percentage of all subprime mortgages packaged into securities, 1994: 31.6 percent; 2007: 92.8 percent

    Percentage of mortgage originations that were subprime, 1994: 4.5 percent; 2006: 20.1 percent.

    Increase in face value of subprime mortgages issued between 1994 and 2006: 1,700 percent

    Share of mortgage originations by federally regulated savings institutions, 1987: 29.8 percent; 2006: 8 percent.

    Share of mortgage originations by less -regulated mortgage brokers, 1987: 20 percent; 2006: 58 percent

    Average annual rise in home-price value, 1990-1999: 3 percent; 2000-2006: 8.6 percent

    U.S. homeownership rate, 1985: 63.5 percent; 2007: 68.2 percent

    Ratio of the median home price to median household income, 1985: 3.2; 2006: 4.6

    Household debt as a percentage of disposable income, 1985: 74.9 percent; 2006: 137 percent

    Percentage of mortgage holders unable to tell if their loan includes an expanded “balloon payment,” 2007: 30 percent

    Percentage of mortgage holders unable to tell if their loan includes a prepayment penalty for refinancing within two years, 2007: 44 percent

    Foreclosure rate on prime mortgages issued between January 1999 and July 2007: 2 percent; on subprime mortgages: 13.7 percent

    Total cost of the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s, in 2007 dollars: $408 billion

    Total estimated cost of the subprime crisis so far: $150 billion to $500 billion.

    Note: All current figures are the latest available and may not refer to the entire calendar year.

    Sources: Milken Institute; U.S. Census Bureau; Federal Reserve; Wholesale Access; 2007 Mortgage Market Statistical Annual; Inside Mortgage Finance; Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight; Federal Trade Commission; LoanPerformance

  11. 3b says:

    njpatient: Gee nobody told me. I thought it was still all of Bergen. I am going to have to break the bad news to my friends and neighbors.

  12. Nom Deplume says:

    okay, I gotta bash some teachers here. Too funny (or sad) to let go.

    Look at this photo on CNBC and tell me what you see.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/23956528?photo=11

  13. 3b says:

    #5 chgo I already asked that question, says he is not at UBS. To date UBS was the only firm I heard that was doing this;perhaps there are others.

  14. 3b says:

    #13 ferst??

  15. grim says:

    No, come on, that can’t be real.

  16. Nom Deplume says:

    kettle,

    not so ahead actually. My brother in law and sister have just such a place in Maine. They let “caretakers” run a B&B out of the house and board horses. Lot of timber so they truck down wood and between that and what the local tree guys send his way (he ‘takes it off their hands’), he never has a heating bill.

    My idea is simply to turn it into a timeshare concept, but with very few investors.

  17. Nom Deplume says:

    yep, it seems to be for real. The kids are very young, not much older than mine, and they are being prepared for the “ferst grad.”

  18. Rich In NNJ says:

    5 & 14,

    Next call was to my attorney…

    My father-in-law is dealing with this right now.
    And no he isn’t an attorney. He’s the poor soul the attorney is calling.

  19. Nom Deplume says:

    BC

    Not a commodities guy. Aside from pork bellies, are there any futures for meat?

  20. RayC says:

    # Stu Says:
    April 4th, 2008 at 3:39 pm

    Brigadoon shall rise again! We still have Trader Joes!

    Big deal. So does Wayne and Paramus.

    But do those have a liquor license?? I hope so, all the rich folks line up to buy the 2 buck chuck. I don’t know why, I splurge and get the $7 chuck.

  21. kettle1 says:

    BC 10

    liquidating

    An accurate description, but somewhat sinister when you really consider what that means! Is that why the NSA likes the term so much….

    Joe:hey bob did you liquidate those non-performing assets like i asked?
    joe: the lehman stocks or musharraf’s cabinet we set up?
    Joe: both!
    joe: hmm, forgot the stocks, but will get right on it….

  22. scribe says:

    There’s more on the Staten Island couple in the text version of the ABC News story:

    Though the couple made less than $30,000, they borrowed $355,000 for the $335,000 house. The extra money went to pay mortgage costs and fees — a violation of the state’s banking laws, which allow a maximum of 3 percent of a loan to go to paying down fees, according to Maltese.

    Maltese also ruled that it was the bank’s responsibility to verify that the Shearons were able to repay the loans, even though their bank application said they earned more than they really did, according to the opinion.

    —–

    Those are the violations?

    Oh, and here’s another good one:

    In what lawyers in the case say is the first ruling of its kind in New York, Judge Joseph Maltese denied the bank’s bid for foreclosure and ruled that the Shearons may be entitled to a refund of their mortgage payments and attorneys fees.

    http://abcnews.go.com/TheLaw/story?id=4583176&page=1

  23. grim says:

    Randolph Duke: Exactly why do you think the price of pork bellies is going to keep going down, William?

    Billy Ray Valentine: Okay, pork belly prices have been dropping all morning, which means that everybody is waiting for it to hit rock bottom, so they can buy low. Which means that the people who own the pork belly contracts are saying, “Hey, we’re losing all our damn money, and Christmas is around the corner, and I ain’t gonna have no money to buy my son the G.I. Joe with the kung-fu grip! And my wife ain’t gonna f… my wife ain’t gonna make love to me if I got no money!” So they’re panicking right now, they’re screaming “SELL! SELL!” to get out before the price keeps dropping. They’re panicking out there right now, I can feel it.

    [on the ticker machine, the price keeps dropping]

    Randolph Duke: He’s right, Mortimer! My God, look at it!

  24. BC Bob says:

    Nom [20],

    Live Cattle
    Feeder Cattle
    Lean Hogs

  25. John says:

    Nice source a convicted Felon Michael Milken the junk bond king himself.

    Sources: Milken Institute; U.S. Census Bureau; Federal Reserve; Wholesale Access; 2007 Mortgage Market Statistical Annual; Inside Mortgage Finance; Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight; Federal Trade Commission; LoanPerformance

  26. Hard Place says:

    Didn’t see this bloomberg article posted anywhere…

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aOluOO8Vy0gc&refer=home

    Lenders Swamped By Foreclosures Let Homeowners Stay (Update1)

    By Bob Ivry

    April 4 (Bloomberg) — Banks are so overwhelmed by the U.S. housing crisis they’ve started to look the other way when homeowners stop paying their mortgages.

    The number of borrowers at least 90 days late on their home loans rose to 3.6 percent at the end of December, the highest in at least five years, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association in Washington. That figure, for the first time, is almost double the 2 percent who have been foreclosed on.

    Lenders who allow owners to stay in their homes are distorting the record foreclosure rate and delaying the worst of the housing decline, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, a unit of New York-based Moody’s Corp. These borrowers will eventually push the number of delinquencies even higher and send more homes onto an already glutted market.

    “We don’t have a sense of the magnitude of what’s really going on because the whole process is being delayed,” Zandi said in an interview. “Looking at the data, we see the problems, but they are probably measurably greater than we think.”
    (snip -jb)

  27. make money says:

    BC,

    High food costs are here to stay.

    What if you’re holding Francs and Euro’s

  28. John says:

    April 4 (Bloomberg) — Hillary and Bill Clinton earned $109 million between 2000 and 2007 and paid $33.7 million in taxes, a spokesman for her presidential campaign said.

    Hillary Clinton, 60, a New York senator seeking the Democratic presidential nomination, released the figures after weeks of pressure from rival Barack Obama, who released his own in March. Clinton spokesman Mo Elleithee released the figures.

    The Clintons gave $10.2 million to charity during those years, the spokesman said.

  29. Sean says:

    re: (27) John

    You would be surprised how busy Mike Milken is.

    Look at who attends his Global conference.

    http://www.milkeninstitute.org/events/events.taf?function=show&ID=159&cat=allconf&EventID=GC06&level1=who

    Check out his photo ablumn, a regular who’s who including GWB.

    http://www.mikemilken.com/photos.taf

  30. SG says:

    3 Key Ways to Buy Foreclosed Properties
    It’s not as easy as the infomercials make it look
    By Alex Markels
    Posted February 13, 2008

    More than a million foreclosed and “distressed” properties are expected to hit the market this year, from two-bedroom starter homes to 20-room mansions. But while the banks that own many of them are now preparing to sell them en masse at auction, most of the best properties will be sold long before the gavel comes down.

    Pre-foreclosures. This entry point offers both the best and worst of the often messy business of investing in foreclosed property.

    Public auctions. The very idea is irresistible. Find your dream house, head for the courthouse steps, and bid whatever you think the place is worth.

    Bank-owned sales. The last stage of the foreclosure process may offer the smallest upside over the short run but the surest investment over the longer run.

  31. kettle1 says:

    29 make money

    Yes, high food costs are here to stay even if you hold francs and euro’s. Europe imports some of its food, and a substantial portion of the food crops go to bio-fuels. Their currency may be stronger but they will see price increases as well.

  32. skep-tic says:

    #30

    “Hillary and Bill Clinton earned $109 million between 2000 and 2007”

    talk about cashing in on the presidency

  33. make money says:

    Grim 24

    Please tell you didn’t memorize the whole movie.

  34. ranger1 says:

    #13

    Teachers are calling it creative spelling nowadays. They want the children to sound out words and spell as they see it and teacher prefers that parent not correct them. drives me crazy with my children

  35. Nom Deplume says:

    makemoney,

    if you are holding francs, you’re screwed.

  36. John says:

    Does the price of food or oil really matter?

    An extra $200 a month for food, an extra $500 a month for oil/gas. Big deal.

    The real reason this is such a big deal is that a person who bought a house ten years ago can swing this no problem with his $1500 a month total mortgage. The couple who bought the same house in 2006 with a nothing down subprime loan is paying $5000 a month for the same house as his neighbor who bought in 1998 who is only paying $1500 a month. The extra $700 a month for food/oil is just the straw that breaks the camels back it is the extra $3,500 they pay each month for their house that is the anchor around their neck.

    My new neighbor looks very worried on my little block and he and his wife paid $630K for a split in the spring of 2006. We all have similar houses. I paid 280K, my other two neighbors paid around $250K and my neighbor who boought in 1982 paid 40K. All us under 300K neighbors have no problem with the high oil/food as our monthly house payments are dirt cheap. The new neighbor hung himeself the day he took on a $500K mortgage on a middle class salary.

  37. John says:

    looks like eubonics to me.

  38. BC Bob says:

    “What if you’re holding Francs and Euro’s”

    make,

    If they appreciate versus the dollar, your food costs will be lower. However, if you buy your soybeans from Brazil or Argentina, you’ll have to monitor those currencies.

  39. John says:

    April 4 (Bloomberg) — Citigroup Inc. raised $4.5 billion in its biggest offering of dollar-denominated notes by giving investors the highest yields over benchmark rates it has offered on similar five-year debt.

    The 5.5 percent, senior securities priced to yield 3 percentage points more than U.S. Treasuries due in 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    Meanwhile ma and pa kettle are buying 2.5% five year cds in citigoup!!

  40. Nom Deplume says:

    [35] ranger,

    Gratified to hear that there might actually be a rashunal explanation. But, unfortunately, we see grammar problems every day from college grads, such that I have to wonder how functional the schools are. This may be a valid technique, but when I see it, my first instinct is ‘great, more idiot Gen X/Yers.”

  41. make money says:

    29 make money

    Yes, high food costs are here to stay even if you hold francs and euro’s. Europe imports some of its food, and a substantial portion of the food crops go to bio-fuels. Their currency may be stronger but they will see price increases as well.

    Kettle,

    Who’s gonna loose value more Beef or US Dollar against the Euro.

    I think all local services will be cheaper for us here in US who will pay with Euro’s.

    Remember my $30 pizza and salad meal at Il piccolos on Mulberry street only cost me 15 Euros.

    Haircuts, carpenters, nails, electricians will all cost cheaper if you’re holding Euro’s. All imported things will be expensive again. rememeber when anything imported was superexpensive and only th ewealthy drove imported cars or wore imported suits and ties, well those days and worse is approaching soon.

    According to Peter Schiff at least.

  42. Nom Deplume says:

    Kettle,

    You don’t want to be anywhere near Stinkin’ Lincoln, trust me. Major cancer hotspot. Besides, that is way too north.

    My idea was to be within a few hours of a major city, and reasonably close to a resort area. My sister’s place is less than an hour from Sunday River Ski Resort, and a few hours from Boston. That is why, for the NYC crowd, Northeastern PA makes sense. NWNJ has requisite space but it isn’t close enough to a major resort area, and its tax and gun laws alone make it not viable.

  43. Teddy says:

    Telling Stats from the Milken Institute:

    Percentage of all mortgages bundled into securities, 1994: 55.8 percent; 2007: 74.2 percent

    Percentage of all subprime mortgages packaged into securities, 1994: 31.6 percent; 2007: 92.8 percent

    Percentage of mortgage originations that were subprime, 1994: 4.5 percent; 2006: 20.1 percent.
    Increase in face value of subprime mortgages issued between 1994 and 2006: 1,700 percent

    Share of mortgage originations by federally regulated savings institutions, 1987: 29.8 percent; 2006: 8 percent.

    Share of mortgage originations by less -regulated mortgage brokers, 1987: 20 percent; 2006: 58 percent

    Average annual rise in home-price value, 1990-1999: 3 percent; 2000-2006: 8.6 percent

    U.S. homeownership rate, 1985: 63.5 percent; 2007: 68.2 percent

    Ratio of the median home price to median household income, 1985: 3.2; 2006: 4.6

    Household debt as a percentage of disposable income, 1985: 74.9 percent; 2006: 137 percent

    Percentage of mortgage holders unable to tell if their loan includes an expanded “balloon payment,” 2007: 30 percent

    Percentage of mortgage holders unable to tell if their loan includes a prepayment penalty for refinancing within two years, 2007: 44 percent

    Foreclosure rate on prime mortgages issued between January 1999 and July 2007: 2 percent; on subprime mortgages: 13.7 percent

    Total cost of the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s, in 2007 dollars: $408 billion

    Total estimated cost of the subprime crisis so far: $150 billion to $500 billion.

    -That last one “total estimated cost…” not really sure how they could calculate that number anyway.

  44. Nom Deplume says:

    Make,

    I still have some francs. Want to buy them?

  45. make money says:

    Nom,

    I hold pleanty of Swiss Francs. Why am I srewed? Cause UBS? You don’t see the Swiss gov’t printing money to save them do you?

  46. Laurie says:

    RE: Bergen county being prestigious and therefore pricey…Yikes…not true. Lots of it are middle class and most of it was built for middle class so what you have are 40 year old splits in nondescript neighborhoods…I know as I live in one…yes, the trees and landscaping are nice but a 10×10 kitchen is still a 10×10 kitchen and it’s even worse when said 10×10 is 40 years old. love those country kitchen pine cabinets…original…no…retro!

    On another note…”my house is worth what?” gets my vote as the most obnoxious show on tv and never ever do they point out vastly overpriced homes or overdone properties…everything is up, up, up! What ??

  47. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    John :37

    So what’s your best case scenario for the neighbor??

    Do you want the bank to kick him to the curb, vacate the house, and try to sell it at the market price (all the while paying to maintain it in sellable condition)??

    Do you want the bank to cut the principal of his loan down to the current market value and re-cast his mortgage based on that amount? (This is a one-time offer, if the value continues to decline….he’s SOL)

    Do you want the gubmint to step in and tell the bank that the total loss in value is now guaranteed by the good faith and credit of Good Ol’ Uncle Sam?

    What’s best for your neighborhood?

  48. kettle1 says:

    John, 37

    do the price of oil and food matter?

    Yes!!! 99% of the world makes/has less then all of you rich NY I-Bankers. try telling all the countries that are freezing food exports that price doesnt really matter. tell the airlines that the price of jet fuel doesnt really matter!

    Ok, done feed the troll

  49. Laurie says:

    A little off thread but hey…it’s weekend discussion so here goes…anybody know of a blog/site (like this one!) that specializes in the So. Florida/ dade county area?? My inlaws live down there in a very modest neighborhood and for awhile the cost per foot of residential real estate was priced higher than anything around here…Bergen County…my FIL was positively aglow that in his crime riden neighborhood where big dogs are a must not a pet had such super high prices…he’s not glowing now..his apt on Miami Beach has sat unsold for over 18 months…

  50. Teddy says:

    Fiddy [49] Call me crazy but the first scenario is the only possibility. You buy something you can’t afford, you lose.

  51. Clotpoll says:

    plume (20)-

    You can attend a live cattle auction weekly right here in Joisey: at the Hackettstown Co-op.

    Good luck telling your neighbor that the 1,400-lb steer you pick up there is really a Great Dane.

  52. BklynHawk says:

    #45 Teddy-

    Interesting stuff…this one caught me a little off guard:

    Ratio of the median home price to median household income, 1985: 3.2; 2006: 4.6

    I would think the reverse or something like 2:1?
    JM

  53. BklynHawk says:

    Ahh, should have looked at that a little closer. I thought it said 4:6, not 4.6. That makes sense, in terms of all other metrics increasing. Still, not good.
    JM

  54. Teddy says:

    Makes sense to me. Median income of 30,000 in 1985 x 3.2 = 96,000 median home price. Median income of 40,000 in 2006 * 4.6 = 184,000 median home price.

    ie… home prices were more expensive in 2006 vs. 1985.

  55. Clotpoll says:

    Ray (21)-

    “I don’t know why, I splurge and get the $7 chuck.”

    Ray, don’t be surprised if the board takes a vote and tosses you out of the LOD.

  56. Clotpoll says:

    plume (36)-

    I’m holding my frank right now. :)

  57. kettle1 says:

    clott, forget the steer i want a bull bison

  58. Teddy says:

    Going to hit up some NNJ open houses this weekend- did the same thing a couple of years ago and it was one of the most disappointing trips of my life. Nothing made you feel poorer than house hunting in NNJ in 2006.

    For anyone with a salary under $200k, a brain, and the ability to project their income vs. housing payments, all you could do was wander around NNJ with your mouth agape in 2006. Of course the numbers were also lost on many.

  59. BC Bob says:

    Clot,

    Good Luck this weekend.

    Go Heels!

  60. kettle1 says:

    Hmmm, looks like wheat demand is only going up…

    Saudi Arabia’s plan to start importing wheat and end a massive grain self-sufficiency programme it launched more than two decades ago will weaken the Kingdom’s food security and aggravate a painful Arab farm gap. The Gulf Kingdom, the world’s richest in oil resources and one of the poorest in terms of water, said this week it would begin importing wheat at the start of 2009 and gradually eliminate a 25-year grain programme that has allowed it to be self sufficient but drained its scarce desert water wealth.

    “We have decided that the first imported shipment of wheat will enter the country at the beginning of 2009,” said Saleh bin Mohammed Al Suleiman, director-general of Saudi’s Grain Silos and Flour Mills Organization. “We are working out arrangements for these imports and will select the best… the size of imports will initially depend on the domestic need and size of production… this year, there has been a decline in cultivated areas while wheat consumption is growing by around eight per cent annually.”

  61. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (61)-

    There’s a bison and buffalo ranch here in Readington Twp. Those things- and their various bodily effluents- stink so bad, you have to roll up your car window in the summer if you’re driving within 1/2 a mile of them.

  62. Clotpoll says:

    BC (63)-

    Thanks. A little luck may be necessary.

    “I’m a Tar Heel born, I’m a Tar Heel bred;
    And when I die, I’m a Tar Heel dead.

    So, rah rah Carolina, lina,
    Rah, Rah Carolina, lina,
    Rah, rah Carolina…
    Go to hell, Dook.”

  63. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Teddy :53

    You would think so….but we ARE in an election year and the candidates are in their “promise them anything” mode. Remember Nixon’s plan to end the Vietnam war?? “I have a plan, but I can’t disclose it at this time.”

    And the Bear Stearns BS provides all the precedent that the bailout-bugs could want.

    Neighborhoods all over America are going to be asked the same question. Do you want an empty, foreclosed house on your block? Or do you want your neighbor to stay in his house with gubmint subsidies?

  64. njcoast says:

    Until the NJRER coop farm is up and running, there are lots of CSA shares available in NJ.

    What’s CSA? Community Supported Agriculture is a way for the food buying public to create a relationship with a local farm and to recieve weekly baskets of produce, flowers, fruits, eggs, milk, coffee, or any sort of different farm products.

    More info on the Local Harvest website.

  65. BC Bob says:

    I think we should allocate some of the NJ Vulture Fund capital to buy McMansions. Bulldoze them and start planting.

  66. lostinny says:

    65 Clot
    Sounds like Staten Island.

  67. Rich In NNJ says:

    River Vale
    SLD 641 DEBCHAR CT $835,000 9/13/2006

    SLD 641 DEBCHAR CT $785,000 4/4/2008

  68. Clotpoll says:

    lost (70)-

    Fresh Kills may be preferable to the bison stench.

    I don’t know how the farm workers approach these damn animals. It’s gut-wrenching.

  69. lostinny says:

    Oh I’m going to have to take a drive by there then. Even closing your window near Fresh Kills in the summer doesn’t help. By that time, it’s stuck in your a/c system and turning it on only sends the stench into the car. It’s enough to make you drive off the road where you’ll land in the landfill anyway. So not a good way to go.

  70. BC Bob says:

    Clot/Lost,

    You think that stench is bad, try living close to the Meadowlands. The aroma from Jimmy Hoffa is putrid.

  71. lostinny says:

    74 BC
    Hubby just said Elizabeth has it all beat.

  72. BklynHawk says:

    Clot-
    Have multiple wagers going with Tar Heels alum at this point. How about loser buys a drink for the winner at the next GTG?

    Rock Chalk, Jayhawk! Go KU!

    JM

  73. Nom Deplume says:

    Make,

    my bad. Thought you meant french francs. There this summer so that has been on my mind.

  74. Ann says:

    48 Laurie

    My House is Worth What is the worst! I love when they get excited when the realtor makes up the number that she would list it at.

  75. Ann says:

    8 gary

    Where have all your Realtor.com links with the great house finds gone?! Haven’t seen any in a while.

  76. Nom Deplume says:

    Kettle,

    I get the impression you are a cat person.

  77. tol says:

    Was just looking at NAR affordability index. It corrected a good deal for rest of country over the last 12m. In the NE it barely moved. Why?

    http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/files/REL0802A.pdf/$FILE/REL0802A.pdf

  78. Clotpoll says:

    Hawk (76)-

    You’re on. At this point, I have so many bets going (including one with my Mom, if it turns out UNC-Memphis), I may have to pay in ducats if we lose.

    I propose we find a bar that accepts Euros for the next GTG.

  79. njpatient says:

    7 kettle

    I can’t believe the CEO of Shell made the statement he did with virtually no media notice.

    I don’t think it’s even on their radar.

  80. Shore Guy says:

    From the previous thread:

    Food in Boston: Try “The Hungry I” on Charles.

  81. kettle1 says:

    Nom,

    i happen to find LOLcats particularly amusing….

  82. Essex says:

    Fresh Reports of bidding wars in Livingston….Multiple bids and prices running up….apparently the further west you go into Morris Co….the more it resembles the malaise of the rest of the country.

  83. kettle1 says:

    84 patient,

    big dogs such as warren buffet, shell ceo, talisman energy ceo, etc have all made public comments warning of peak oil and all of them have been ignored!

    “you can only be shown the door, you have to walk through it yourself”

  84. kettle1 says:

    patient,

    serious question…. how do you see the pub;ic responding in the government took this as their official position and actuallt started making hard choices?

    Call me cynical but i think that people would raise holy hell and kick those politicians out. Until people actually start to hurt, go cold, and hungry, nothing but the status quo will be acceptable.

  85. kettle1 says:

    warren buffet talks peak oil and net energy

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWn4OVMwc4s

  86. Frank says:

    #82,
    Because prices have not dropped much in the North East. The reason prices have not dropped as much as in the West is because it takes years to foreclose in NJ or NY vs. 30 days in NV.

  87. Frank says:

    #90,
    Look at Zimbabwe, status quo is acceptable even if you’re hungry and broke.

  88. kettle1 says:

    can i borrow 38 billion with a hand written IOU???

    WASHINGTON — Big Wall Street investment companies are stepping up their borrowing a bit from the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented emergency lending program.
    Advertisement

    The Federal Reserve reports Thursday that those firms averaged $38.1 billion in daily borrowing over the past week from the new lending program. That compared with $32.9 billion in the previous week and $13.4 billion in the first week the lending facility opened.

    The program, which began on March 17, is part of the Fed’s effort to aid the financial system.

    The Fed, for the first time, agreed to let big investment houses temporarily get emergency loans directly from the central bank. This mechanism, similar to one available for commercial banks for years, will continue for at least six months. It was the broadest use of the Fed’s lending authority since the 1930s.

    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues opened the facility as it raced to deal with the sudden crash of the venerable Wall Street firm Bear Stearns, which was on the brink of bankruptcy. Fearful that other investment firms could be in jeopardy given the intense fear that gripped the markets at that time, the Fed moved to give investment firms a place to go for overnight cash loans.

    The lending facility is seen as similar to the Fed’s “discount window” for commercial banks, where the Fed acts as a lender of last resort. Commercial banks and investment companies pay 2.5 percent in interest for overnight loans from the Fed.

    Banks also stepped up their borrowing from the Fed’s discount window. Banks averaged $7 billion in daily borrowing for the week ending April 2. That compared with $550 million the previous week.

  89. Shore Guy says:

    # 76

    I thought it was Rock Chalk, Chickenhawk, F**k KU?

  90. njpatient says:

    17 Nom de Geurre

    That’s another thing we have in common. My bro is gradually going off grid in Maine.

  91. Frank says:

    Did anyone go to the foreclosure auction on Monday? I think it was in the city or North NJ.

  92. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (94)-

    Bloomberg (April 4, 2008)-

    The Federal Reserve and US Department of the Treasury announced tonight that they will merge. As of Monday, April 7, the new entity will begin operations under the official title, “US Federal Treasury and Check Cashing Bodega”.

    The merged departments, to be known as “Fed Bodega”, also announced that it will suspend the use of wire transfers of large amounts of money, in favor of transmitting those same amounts via Western Union.

    In a related development, Federal Express immediately filed suit against Fed Bodega for trademark infringement.

  93. BC Bob says:

    lost [75],

    Hubby is spot on.

  94. BC Bob says:

    “The Federal Reserve and US Department of the Treasury announced tonight that they will merge. As of Monday, April 7, the new entity will begin operations under the official title, “US Federal Treasury and Check Cashing Bodega””

    Clot,

    Not a problem. John Q is the lender of last resort. In addition to this, get the ppt to pump up prices so that the wizards, on WS, can dump their crap to the naive and gullible. Who said liquidity is a problem? The fed is sending the bill to the treasury. Thank you John Q, now just shut up and buy.

  95. njpatient says:

    24 grim

    That should be taught in business school.

  96. HEHEHE says:

    “The Federal Reserve reports Thursday that those firms averaged $38.1 billion in daily borrowing over the past week from the new lending program”

    And people actually wonder why the market isn’t reacting badly to any negative news?

  97. Clotpoll says:

    patient (104)-

    They couldn’t. It’s over their heads.

  98. Clotpoll says:

    Fed Bodega’s new motto:

    “Convenient Weekend Hours”

  99. Clotpoll says:

    HE (105)-

    Think any of that money’s being put to use shorting gold?

  100. Clotpoll says:

    I think I need to cut back on my drinking.

    Or drink more. I’m not sure.

  101. chicagofinance says:

    OT – Watched a few minutes of al-Yank-zeera (a.k.a. YES) this evening. What a crock! Matsui plays a flyout into a double, then Derek Jeter (a.k.a. Bruce Hornsby without the Range) takes a routine grounder that needs to be charged. Instead he stays back and makes his famous flashy but useless, jump-in-the-air-pirouette move that creates an infield single. Al-Yankzeera ignores these facts and focuses on LaTroy Hawkins and what a clown he is as if this team of DHs is without fault. Then the boo-birds rain-down on Hawkins. Yeech…….get me Mets-Braves.

  102. njpatient says:

    60 clot

    No flirting!!

  103. BklynHawk says:

    95# Shore Guy-
    Let me guess. You’re from Missouri?
    JM

  104. kettle1 says:

    clot 109

    drink more

  105. BC Bob says:

    “And people actually wonder why the market isn’t reacting badly to any negative news?”

    He,

    It’s good news. The window is now open to all 20 primary dealers. John Q is stepping up to the plate. Pay me my bonus, marked to a model, WINK! WINK! Marked to the market? Ben? Hank? China? 7.5%? John Q? Sell.Sell to whom?

    The saps will be led to believe that the fed is acting in their best interest.

  106. njpatient says:

    90 kettle

    Sadly, you’re right.

  107. BC Bob says:

    Chi[110],

    Just like a trade; Don’t worry what you don’t have on, that can’t hurt you. Worry about your own portfolio. KISS.

  108. BC Bob says:

    Don’t worry about.

  109. Rich In NNJ says:

    Looking through MLS history & tax records… Subprime and Alt-A are yesterday’s news.
    A lot of homes that I’m reviewing on today’s NJMLS “Hotsheet” are in trouble due to equity extraction.

  110. Clotpoll says:

    BC (101-102)-

    Thanks for the memories.

  111. njpatient says:

    “A lot of homes that I’m reviewing on today’s NJMLS “Hotsheet” are in trouble due to equity extraction.”

    No one more deserving of a bailout.

  112. bairen says:

    #110 chicagofinance says

    “get me Mets-Braves.”

    Really? I never got into minor league baseball.

  113. bairen says:

    3rd airline announces its shutting down this week.

    http://www.cnn.com/2008/TRAVEL/04/04/airlines.bankruptcy/index.html

    Good thing high energy prices don’t impact the economy and don’t count in the inflation figures. Otherwise we might b getting tad concerned.

    3 airlines in a week. Is that some sort of record?

  114. NNJJEFF says:

    Can someone with MLS access, give me details on OLP and sale info on #2748121. I think it’s sold recently.

    Thanx in advance

  115. grim says:

    Jeff,

    MLS# 2729743 – 99 Ivy
    Listed: 7/20/2007
    OLP: $649,000
    LP: $599,000
    DOM: 133
    Withdrawn

    MLS# 2748121
    Listed: 12/10/2007
    OLP: $599,000
    LP: $599,000
    DOM: 88

    Sold: $520,000

  116. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Bankruptcies Jump 30% in March, Led by Housing-Bust States

    The jump in March bankruptcy filings is another indication the U.S. economy is in recession, led by states where the housing boom turned to bust.

    The more than 90,000 bankruptcy filings in March were the highest since insolvency laws became more restrictive in October 2005, according to statistics compiled from court records by Jupiter eSources LLC. At a daily rate, filings in March were 30 percent above the pace in 2007.

    Rising bankruptcies, together with mounting foreclosures and fewer jobs, are further signs the biggest housing slump in a generation is hurting consumers and businesses. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke this week for the first time acknowledged the economy may be facing a recession and vowed to act to cushion the slowdown.

    “We’re seeing fairly high readings in these measures of distress like bankruptcies, foreclosures and mortgage defaults,” said Chris Low, chief U.S. economist at FTN Financial in New York. The most affected states are “also where the most housing-related business growth was,” said Low.

    The states most affected by the housing recession, including California, Nevada and Florida, were among those with the largest increases in bankruptcies.

  117. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    That weight you feel is state’s debt burden

    New Jersey residents continued to grapple with one of the heaviest state debt loads in the nation last year, a new survey of public borrowing shows.

    The annual State Debt Medians report from Moody’s Investors Services puts New Jersey’s total state-supported debt at $30.2 billion last year, third in the nation behind California and New York. That debt amounted to 7.5 percent of residents’ total income, also third highest in the nation, and more than double the national average of 3.2 percent.

    “This is just another indication that debt is out of control in New Jersey,” said state Sen. Leonard Lance (R-Hunterdon), who has introduced legislation that would require voter approval for all new state debt. “It is incumbent that my constitutional amendment prohibiting further debt without voter approval reach the ballot this November.”

    Gov. Jon Corzine, who has campaigned for a steep toll hike to finance a plan to pay down half the state’s debt, agreed that New Jersey’s continued dominance of the national debt rankings is troubling.

    “This is not a ranking the governor is proud of,” said his spokeswoman, Lilo Stainton. “But it is obviously one he is extremely concerned about.”

    The debt amounts to $3,478 for every man, woman and child in New Jersey — an increase of $161 from last year’s average. Only the residents of Massachusetts, Connecticut and Hawaii have a heavier per-capita state debt burden, the report shows.

    As recently as 1996, the state’s average debt load was less than $1,000 per resident, and ranked eighth in the nation, the Moody’s report shows.

    Overall, New Jersey’s state debt grew by about $1.1 billion last year, an increase of about 4.2 percent over last year’s debt total. That is slightly behind the national average rate of growth, which was 5.1 percent.

  118. NNJJEFF says:

    #118
    can you tell from tax records equity extraction or mortgage info of current owner?

  119. njpatient says:

    “don’t count in the inflation figures.”

    Bairen, you say that as if it’s a mere technicality, when the fact is that higher food and energy prices actually don’t cause inflation. This is due to the effect of the Magic Inflation Fairy, of course (the only reason this isn’t discussed on CNBC is that fairies make Kudlow feel uncomfortable and a little bit … confused).

  120. grim says:

    Contemplating high yield Countrywide Bank CDs?

    Moody’s downgrades Countrywide Bank

    Moody’s Financial Services downgraded Countrywide Financial Corp.’s bank to a “D” rating late Thursday, according to a Marketwatch report.

    According to the report, Moody’s cited “substantial liquidity issues” as the main reason for the downgrade.

  121. grim says:

    Kinnelon Comp Killer

    204 S. Glen Road

    Purchased: 1/18/2007
    Purchase Price: $990,000

    Sold: 4/4/2008
    Sale Price: $930,000

    Loss? More than $100k.

  122. Clotpoll says:

    Jeff (128)-

    No. You need to access the recorded mortgages at your county clerk’s office.

    Some NJ counties now offer online access.

  123. grim says:

    Mine Hill Comp Killer

    46 Randall Ave

    Purchased: 12/14/2004
    Purchase Price: $350,000

    Sold: 4/1/2008
    Sale Price: $292,000
    (REO – HSBC)

    17% under 2004 purchase price! Was listed at $419,900 in March of 2006.

  124. Clotpoll says:

    grim (130)-

    …and, we all know how quick Moody’s is on issuing warnings and downgrades.

    Sheesh. Shysters abetting criminals. They’re all rolling in the muck. The minute any of these ratings agencies got paid to stamp “AAA” on a roll of toilet paper, all credibility went out the window.

    Better every MBS out there just get the grade “CE”: caveat emptor.

  125. grim says:

    Bernards Comp Killer

    88 Smithfield Court (Spring Ridge)

    Purchased: 8/26/2004
    Purchase Price: $325,000

    Sold: 3/27/2008 (updated late in the GSMLS)
    Sale Price: $320,000

    Four years of ownership, through the greatest bull real estate market of our lifetime, and the owner managed to lose more than $20k (transaction costs included).

    Yes, I realize that $5k under purchase price isn’t all that impressive, but realize that it’s a 2004 purchase price.

  126. grim says:

    Clot,

    I vote that we add a new credit rating, AAAA. So, instead of downgrading securities (bah humbug!), we can upgrade securities (yay!) and instill confidence in the marketplace.

  127. grim says:

    River Vale Comp Killer

    641 Debchar Court

    Purchased: 9/13/2006
    Purchase Price: $835,000

    Sold: 4/4/2008
    Sale Price: $785,000

  128. Shore Guy says:

    BklynHawk Says:
    April 4th, 2008 at 11:20 pm
    95# Shore Guy-
    Let me guess. You’re from Missouri?

    Nope, NJ.

  129. Shore Guy says:

    # 136

    And as an added bonus, each “A” can be purchased. That way, only the firms with the strongest balance sheet can afford a lot of “A”s. I can see the ads now, “6.02×10^23 “A” rated Citigroup announced today…..”

  130. grim says:

    Talk about HELOC/REFI massacre..

    519 Harriet, Franklin Lakes NJ

    Purchased: 4/3/2003
    Purchase Price: $425,000

    Initial Mortgage: $364,000
    Down Payment (assumed): $61,000

    Refinanced: 9/29/2003
    Mortgage Amount: $436,000

    Refinanced: 12/6/2004
    Mortgage Amount: $480,000

    HELOC: 7/6/2005
    Mortgage Amount: $100,000

    Purchase Price: $425,000
    Outstanding Debt: $480,000-$580,000

    Currently listed at $499,000, short sale. Was listed as high as $689,000 in 2007.

    Thanks go out to U.S. Mortgage Corp, Chase Manhattan, and JP Morgan Chase. Without you this could have never been possible.

  131. lostinny says:

    140
    Holy bejeezus! This is why people need to put on a short leash.

  132. Shore Guy says:

    # 140

    Ouch!

    The sad thing is that a good friend ended up doing a similar thing. He kept pulling cash out of the home ATM to fund lifestyle activities. Now, 20 odd years after first buying the place, he owes much more than he originally paid for it, is just a couple years into a 30-year mortgage, and has a balloon payment on the horizon and has no prospects of being able to pay it or of refinancing (as the home value has dropped). Add a layoff and, well, it is ugly.

    I used to wonder how he could afford his lifestyle. The fact is, he couldn’t. My guess is that the folks in your examole, Grim, did the same kinds of things. “Vacation on the house” anyone?

  133. Cindy says:

    Nom #13 and ranger1 #36 – a bit of a phonics lesson was needed here….

    While it is true that the primary grades do use “creative spelling” to encourage students to write without worrying about spelling, it is NOT meant to be used in a “teacher-centered activity.” This IS the teachable moment.

    At this time – group writing- you introduce “Mean Mr. R” and explain that he “controls” the vowels whenever he stands next to them. No longer does the “a”
    say “ah” as in “cat” but when Mean Mr. R is around it says “ar” as in car. The “i” doesn’t get to say its usual “i” sound because Mean Mr. R is around..he “controls” the vowels and changes what they “say.”

    Ideally you would go on to explain, “there are a variety of ways to spell the “er” sound….not just “er”… ir – first ur- fur
    or – doctor.” Once you have introduced the concept of variant spellings for a sound, you refer back to that notion whenever you are doing group writing. (When you have to spell “blue” but just learned that the “oo” sound is spelled with “oo” as in “pool” etc.)

    So IMHO – #13 is an erroneous picture. There are 26 letters but 44 sounds and a teacher needs to seize that “teachable moment” to explain the inconsistencies of the English language. You NEVER want your students to “visualize” a misspelled word in a “teacher-led” activity. We creat a mental image of what a word should “look” like. Those students should have been looking at a corrected version of the word “first.”

  134. grim says:

    “Vacation on the house” anyone?

    https://njrereport.com/images/vaca_heloc.jpg

    Doesn’t seem like such a good idea anymore…

  135. lostinny says:

    143 Cindy
    Thank you for explaining that.

  136. Cindy says:

    #143 – “We creat a mental image… “create” I see it…

    I teach second grade so a problem like this is huge to me. First a student must “unlearn” the erroneous spelling then I must “reteach” the correct spelling. The entire process takes twice as long.

  137. Shore Guy says:

    Hey Cindy, there is always this one too. “When two vowels go a-walking…..”

    Anyone remember the rest? Extra points for a nice drawing.

  138. Shore Guy says:

    # 144

    Maybe a house is important but, really, vacation memories last a lifetime. Houses, after all, come and go. It is family, and happiness that matter most.

    Sticking fingers down throat.

  139. njpatient says:

    144

    Oh Jeebus

    Remember this commercial that came out during the dotcom bubble?

    “What’s wrong with him, Doctor??”

    “He’s got money coming out of he wazoo!!!”

  140. lostinny says:

    150
    That didn’t actually air did it? That’s terrible.

  141. 3b says:

    #140 grim OMG!!! And in Franklin Lakes? Everyybody there is supposed to be super wealthy and super smart. This cannot be!!

  142. chicagofinance says:

    bairen Says:
    April 5th, 2008 at 6:34 am
    #110 chicagofinance says “get me Mets-Braves.”Really? I never got into minor league baseball.

    doh!

  143. BC Bob says:

    JB [144],

    Is there a vacation ETF to short?

  144. PGC says:

    What I don’t get with HELOCs and Refis is that at the end of the day the ammount you owe will keep going up. If I get a $250K mortgage and I HELOC for $100K, I owe $350K. If you refi a mortgage to lower the payments, in most cases you just end up extending the payment term. If I refi a 30yr to another 30yr after 4 years, the payment term is now 34yrs.

    I understand that using a HELOC to consolidate debt and reduce payments is a useful financial strategy, but in the most cases it just resets the credit limits to start the spending cycle again.

    I think HELOCs are one big credit trap. Unlike credit cards where you are forced to make a physical minimun payment once a month, or else you get the notice of finance charges on your next statement. The fincnce charges give you a big indication of how much that missed payment has cost you. With the HELOC, there is a minimum payment, but if you don’t make a payment, it just comes out of the credit line. If people don’t realise that the amount owned is growing, it can come back and bite them when they need to clear the line.

    I was taught two great things for life. One from my father and one from my job. From my father I got, “Be very wary of credit. If someone lends you a dollar, it will always cost you more than a dollar to repay. Even if a friend does not want interest, at some point they will want another dollar as a loan or a favor.” My father pays cash for practically everything. He only really had a bank account to cash his paycheck and pay his mortgage. From my job I got that there is a big difference between realised and unrealised profit and loss. A realised profit cannot be turned into an unrealised loss, but a unrealised profit is a risk and can turn to a realised loss very quickly.

  145. mark says:

    Weichert want 3 1/2 to list my Townhouse, and another 2 1/2 for the other agents.

    and a 6 month listing.

    Comments please

    I don’t like the deal

  146. grim says:

    BC,

    Too late..

    http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lwdhome/warn/2008/02-08warn.html

    Liberty Travel laying off 60 IT employees in Ramsey/Mahwah later this month.

  147. grim says:

    March WARN notices were posted yesterday, ugly.

    http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lwdhome/warn/2008/03-08warn.html

    Is it just me, or does the pace of WARN layoffs appear to be accelerating?

  148. bairen says:

    #154 Is there an airline or hotel/resort ETF?

  149. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    Continental to charge $25 fee for 2nd bag

    Continental Airlines announced late yesterday it will begin charging a $25 service fee for many passengers who check a second bag.

    The largest carrier at Newark Liberty International Airport said the policy is a way of coping with rising fuel costs. In addition, checked luggage must meet size and weight limits or face further fees. The policy applies to trips beginning May 5 to destinations within the United States and Canada, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

  150. t c m says:

    #155 – helocs

    the problem is not the heloc, it’s the people

    i think, like a lot of financial products, used correctly, it can be a really good thing. i used to work in a bank, and we did a ton of helocs – most of the people had lots of equity in their homes (bought in the 90’s or earlier) and had large incomes – many wanted to do improvements on their houses, some had irregular incomes, say the bulk of their money came in certain months, so they used this in the leaner months … and so on. my point is, these people knew what they were doing, used the line , and never got into trouble with it.

    i worry when i hear people blame the product, and not the people abusing it – we shouldn’t all lose access to some good financial products because some dopes out there can’t handle it.

    by the way, if i’m remembering correctly, i never saw a line in the bank i worked for that rolled the minimum payment into the balance – there was always a minimum monthly payment due – from another source of money.

  151. PGC says:

    #157 mark

    6% commission for a 6 months listing. Unless the inventory levels are forcing them to up the rates, tell them to walk.

    Offer them 5% for a normal sale (2.5% to them and 2.5% to the other agent), 4% on a dual agency (where their office also represents the buyer) and no more than a 3 month listing. If they cry that 3 months is too short, say that they are getting the top three months of the selling season. Also assmuming that you have priced correctly, you should not need more than three months.

    Side note, my current rental went on the market and sold in two weeks. Places will sell if they are priced correctly.

  152. mark says:

    #163 Thank you.

    Thinking the same,

  153. bairen says:

    Hey Gary,

    Maybe you should move to Morris County?

    http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?ctid=93952&typ=7&sid=95f2eb6ef7944a098b41467c72af7fd8&pg=2&lid=1096862413&lsn=13&srcnt=34#Detail

    5 bdr 3 bath brick colonial in East Hanover.

    How much would this baby have gone for in the summer of 05?

  154. Sean says:

    And the hits go on, including some very ritzy towns, Alpine, Saddle River, Franklin Lakes. Anyone here want to live near MJ Blige?

    http://www.bcsd.us/sheriff_sale.aspx#sales

    I wonder how long it will be before the banks refuse to foreclose in Bergen County due to taxes and maintenance. They can’t keep buying back all of these homes at $100 and then pay taxes on them.

  155. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Grim :140

    I wonder who owns the secondary notes on that ATM…I mean home. Some lender is going to be short a bundle.

    In my experience, US Mortgage is one of the worst lenders out there. I think there were even some indictments handed down on one of their “offices”. In most cases they sold the loan off right after closing, so they’re not going to take a haircut on this.

  156. Sean says:

    I am taking field trip this afternoon to Ridgewood. I will be cruising the better neighborhoods for deals, and I will pop into a few open houses

    I will take copious voice notes my blackberry voice recorder for later transcription of the experience. I would videotape it but the realtor’s might catch on.

  157. Shore Guy says:

    Well, it I am off to look at granite for the new counters. I never thought I would utter those words. It is amazing how close the cost is between the stone and Corian and the stone is better for bread making.

    I feel so conflicted.

  158. PGC says:

    Intersting one from the BC Sherrif sale

    Sold 08/21/2006: $600,000 *
    2007 Property Tax: $9,507

    762374 4/18/08 218 GAYNOR PLACE GLEN ROCK 515673.48
    762374 4/18/08 218 GAYNOR PLACE GLEN ROCK 132486.22

    The intersting thing is when you start tracing the tax bills. There is a long chain of people sending bills to addresses they don’t live in.

  159. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    Given the availability and pricing of granite these days, it is the utilitarian choice if you are going to use it for 20 years or so.

  160. lisoosh says:

    Shore – maybe you can pick a less trendy color of granite. Buck the system a little.

  161. lisoosh says:

    Anyone ever see “Bizkids” on PBS (it goes with the cartoons)? My 6 year old saw me paying for gas with the Amex and piped up from the back of the car that “credit cards are other peoples money, not our money, you have to pay it back. Do you pay it back Mommy?”. I was quite impressed.

  162. Pat says:

    lisoosh, no, but we’ll watch for it. Our 6 y.o. needs some help with the difference between debit and credit.

    The cards are confusing.

  163. NJGator says:

    Home Sale Event! Orig Price $600,000 Sale Price $575,000
    http://www.realtor.com/realestate/franklin+lakes-nj-07417-1097201607/

    I think I’ll take 2.

  164. njcoast says:

    The now defunct Jersey Shore Bubble Blog would post this listing regularly. The house has now been relisted(Zero days on the market!!).

    80 Waterman Ave. Rumson
    MLS#20813911

    Sold-2000- $248,900
    Sold-2003-$465,000

    Listed-4/11/05-$939,000
    reduced- 5/29/05-$899,00
    reduced 6/20/05-$875,000
    reduced-7/27/05-$835,000
    reduced-9/27/05-$799,000
    reduced-10/23/05-$749,900
    reduced-6/01/06-$699,900
    reduced-4/04/07-$679,000
    reduced-8/06/07-$599,000
    relisted-4/04/08-$679,000
    reduced-4/05/08-$599,00

  165. afe says:

    Anyone know details of this u/c mls?
    Closing was supposed to be in march I think.
    2478974

    Thanks!

  166. afe says:

    NJ Gator (177)

    Ha! I think this is a new marketing ploy by CBanker. Noticed it on a number of other properties I have been tracking. Like “Sales Event” will make me think, boy, I better get to it first thing Sunday morning, even before I hit Macy’s 1-day sales event on Guatemalan sweaters.

  167. njrebear says:

    grim,
    We had layoffs at work(10%). Numbers don’t show up on the warn list.

  168. BLB says:

    The now defunct Jersey Shore Bubble Blog would post this listing regularly. The house has now been relisted(Zero days on the market!!).

    Heh!

    That place has been empty and for sale for a LONG time – three years.

    You’d think by now it would have occurred to the sellers that they were chasing the market down. But look at the jump in what they paid (2003) and what what they wanted to flip for (2005) – it’s more than double.

    In the meantime, I have to wonder what the elements have been doing to the property (lots of salt water in the air and maybe in the street during high tide and a full moon.)

    Stupid should hurt. In this case it obviously does.

  169. grim says:

    Anyone know details of this u/c mls?

    Closed, $846k.

  170. afe says:

    Thanks Grim. Looks like a hair below ’05.

  171. mark says:

    I’ve interviewed a few agents. My oh my, what an industry.

    It’s a wonder some of them survive.

  172. gary says:

    This is what I received today from a realtor regarding MLS# 2492647

    MAJOR PRICE REDUCTION SALE EVENT. ONE WEEK ONLY APRIL 6-12TH. ORG LP $689,900 EVENT PRICE $669,900. NOW IS THE TIME TO BRING YOUR BUYERS. PRICES GO BACK UP APRIL 13TH.

  173. gary says:

    Oh wait…. I have another one:

    LOL!!!

    MLS# 2457931

    MAJOR PRICE REDUCTION SALES EVENT. 1 WEEK ONLY APRIL 6-12TH. ORG LP $649,900 EVENT PRICE $629,900. NOW IS THE TIME TO BRING YOUR BUYERS. !PRICES GO BACK UP APRIL 13TH.

  174. Sybarite says:

    Slow day today! Must be the nice open house weather :-)

  175. 3b says:

    #186 gaey Did it really say prices go back up April 13.

  176. grim says:

    Anything to create a sense of urgency.

  177. rhymingrealtor says:

    I just looked up Belleville SFH’s for a client. What an eye opening experience that was. 128 SFH’s ( no condo’s- townhouse) out of those 18 are short sales, and countless have the following remarks, Just Reduced!, Owner anxious, very motivated, present all offers.
    Then there were these three very interesting remarks:

    California owner extremely anxious to sell

    Make A N Y offer

    And………my all time favorite:

    3% Commision & we are very friendly with buyer’s agents.

    KL

  178. galgon says:

    Hey Clot,

    I thought you said the short sale “Yellow Submarine” house in Clinton was in a bidding war last week. I still see it on MLS. What gives?

  179. galgon says:

    Could someone with MLS access tell me what happened to 39 Center St in clinton TWP. MLS: 2469460 Thanks.

  180. gary says:

    3b,

    I cut and pasted the whole thing word for word.

  181. grim says:

    gal,

    UC

  182. crossroads says:

    grim,
    warn layoffs picking up and the gov to cut 3,000 jobs and how many did NJ add last year? seems likwe trouble is heading our way. how many will Merk and Schering plough cut in the state?

  183. Pat says:

    Can anyone with any experience provide insight into the entry of a gentleman’s club into a residential area? Data on positive revenues, impacts on real estate values, etc., would be appreciated. Town hall meeting on Tuesday.

    [John, you too. Don’t be shy now.]

  184. afe says:

    Pat (198)- Don’t be shy now

    At the very least we will get an entertaining story about his younger days pimping it up “on the island”, bright and early, Sun morning.

  185. chicagofinance says:

    crossroads Says:
    April 5th, 2008 at 7:48 pm
    grim,
    Schering plough cut in the state?

    X: 5500 was the number that I have heard and assumed for NJ

  186. Sybarite says:

    200

    Chi, for some reason I thought i remember hearing 8000 as the # for NJ.

  187. chicagofinance says:

    Pat Says:
    April 5th, 2008 at 7:49 pm
    gentleman’s club into a residential area?

    Pat: I only know stuff from extended family and some high school friends that used to work at these places when they were young and brought the goods. #1 organized crime and drugs are an issue; also #2 business hours….if the place would shut down by 11PM or midnight, it would not be so bad. Nothing good ever happens after 1AM in the morning.

  188. chicagofinance says:

    Sybarite Says:
    April 5th, 2008 at 8:21 pm
    200
    Chi, for some reason I thought i remember hearing 8000 as the # for NJ.

    syb: 8000 might me the corporation wide number…5500 is the Kenilworth management jobs…just what I heard…consider it rubbish….

  189. Sybarite says:

    “chicagofinance Says:
    April 5th, 2008 at 8:21 pm
    Nothing good ever happens after 1AM in the morning.”

    Depends on the caliber of strippers you’re hanging out with ;-)

  190. Frank says:

    #206,
    Maybe Kenilworth housing bubble will finally deflate.

  191. NJGator says:

    Gary – ha! Funny every single one of this agent’s listings are on sale for this week only. Better make your offer quick!

    http://www.realtor.com/search/searchresults.aspx?agtid=97998

  192. Sybarite says:

    RE: C-Banker

    Actually, yes, my realtor told me about this promotion. It basically seems to me to be a ploy to get sellers to reduce their asking prices. A flood of price drops, should in theory lead to an uptick in activity, which could then be spun for further momentum.

  193. njpatient says:

    202 chi
    “Nothing good ever happens after 1AM in the morning.”

    Casey Stengel?

  194. gary says:

    They couldn’t sell the over-priced, bloated piece of shlt so now they’ll try to rent it. These are the same people who think being wealthy is knowing how to spend it.

    Hey, here’s a thought, did you ever think of reducing the price by about $200,000?

    http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/631195074.html

  195. gary says:

    Holy freakin’ shlt!! Just when I hit enter on the last post, I come across the mother of all pipe dreams:

    http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/631196043.html

    Geezus… I’m f*cking speechless.

  196. Sybarite says:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFX4zhNubBI

    Who is the artist in this clip?

  197. HEHEHE says:

    UNC….wow

  198. Diane says:

    MLS #2464666

    Can someone with MLS access, give me details on #2464666. Thank you.

  199. afe says:

    Syb,

    The ploy theoretically makes sense. But why are they only lowering for such small (in my (buyer’s) mind) amounts? I know you don’t have the answer, I am just saying. Check this house out:

    http://tinyurl.com/5cbexm

    That’s 6k on 1.15 m house! DOH!

    The most I have seen dropped is about 25k in the areas I am tracking. Maybe they want to start priming sellers, like okay, 6k didn’t work, let us try 10k…and so on…until they hit market price. What was that movie with the famous line about “baby steps…”

  200. d2b says:

    212- The Clash- Rudy can’t fail.

  201. d2b says:

    Auction on new construction in North Wildwood on May 4th. This will be a serious comp killer. This market is already on life support.

    http://www.maxspann.com/

  202. galgon says:

    Too and to the NJ layoffs I found out that a local electrical plug manufacturer let all of their “temporary” employees go. Unfortunately a close relative is one of the affected employees. With the construction market the way it is I saw this one coming but it still hurts.

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