Feeling the squeeze

The long awaited Gold Coast Get Together! Don’t miss it!

June 14th, 2008 at 5pm
The Brass Rail
135 Washington St
Hoboken, NJ 07030

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From the NY Post:

FORECLOSURES HIT NYC LIKE A BRICK

How big has New York City’s foreclosure problem become?

“Two years ago, there were just a few selected ZIP codes where [foreclosures] were bad,” says Matthew Haines, the founder of PropertyShark.com, which tracks foreclosures in the five boroughs. “Now there are whole areas – areas that contain 12 or 15 ZIP codes – that are really bad.”

With foreclosures hitting the five boroughs hard, even responsible homeowners are going to feel the pinch. Just one foreclosed house can bring down property values on an entire block.

On the other hand, if you’re looking to buy a home in one of the city’s more distressed areas, your chances of finding a deal are increasing. That’s because the number of foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies only seems to be getting higher.

And while many real-estate professionals insist New York is immune to wider market woes, the city’s latest foreclosure data is cause for concern.

“If you look at the map, more than 50 percent of the surface area of New York City is in foreclosure trouble,” says Haines.

In the first quarter of 2007, there were 554 foreclosures citywide. In the first quarter of 2008 there were 918 – a 66 percent uptick.

And homeowners looking to sell their houses in foreclosure-heavy areas are feeling the squeeze.

“I have a listing in St. Albans, [Queens],” says Anthony Carollo of Carollo Real Estate. “Their asking price was $399,000 [seven months ago], and they couldn’t sell it. We got it in April, and we started at $369,000.”

That house was a well maintained, three-bedroom frame Colonial that had not been foreclosed on – but several other houses nearby had been. And the banks were trying to get those properties off their hands as quickly as possible.

“We’ve been going up against homes that banks were willing to sell for $75,000 less,” says Carollo. “The bank doesn’t want to own the property. They don’t want to spend the money maintaining it or the legal fees.”

As for the listing in St. Albans: “We just dropped the price again, to $339,000.”

Data from May suggests the foreclosure problem is getting worse. New York City foreclosures overall were up 49.8 percent last month compared to May 2007. Queens saw 177 foreclosures, Brooklyn had 55, Staten Island had 47, and The Bronx had 20. Even Manhattan didn’t walk away unscathed – it counted 14 foreclosures.

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289 Responses to Feeling the squeeze

  1. grim says:

    From the NY Times:

    Housing Slump Helps the Draw of Fixer-Upper TV

    The housing market is collapsing, but television shows about housing are booming.

    The audiences for HGTV and TLC, the two channels with the most so-called property programming, have grown steadily over the last three years. The reason appears to be their shift in focus away from buying real estate as speculative sport to more educational and emotional shows.

    “If anything, there’s more interest than ever before, because of what’s going on in the market,” Jim Samples, the president of HGTV, said.

    Shows that were hallmarks of the bubble — like “Flip That House” (on TLC) and “Flip This House” (on A&E) — are still around, but have been retooled with less-than-happy endings. The TLC episodes are repeated several times each week and still draw an average of 700,000 viewers a showing.

    “People loved comedies during the depression, too,” said R. J. Cutler, executive producer of “Flip That House.”

  2. grim says:

    From the LA Times:

    Bank shot could pay off for Shaq

    He has dubbed himself Superman, the Diesel, the Big Aristotle and Shaq-Fu among other nicknames.

    If Shaquille O’Neal’s latest proposed venture works out, he might also become known as the Big Fannie Mae.

    O’Neal told the Orlando Sentinel that he wanted to help people facing foreclosure on their homes.

    “I want to come in not to kick them out, but to work with them and save them so they can stay in their homes,” O’Neal said during a visit to Orlando City Hall.

    Attorney Mark NeJame told the Sentinel that O’Neal wants to buy the mortgages of homeowners who have slipped into foreclosure because of high interest rates. The Phoenix Suns center would sell the homes back with more affordable terms, hoping to make a small profit.

    “He’s become a businessman with a conscience,” NeJame said.

    O’Neal remains conscious of opportunity: According to the Sentinel, he would like to develop a TV reality show based on his Orlando project and call it “Shaq’s Big Save,” a sequel to a 2007 weight-loss show, “Shaq’s Big Challenge.”

  3. grim says:

    From the Washington Post:

    Economy Remains Sluggish, Fed Says

    Weaker attendance at Broadway theaters. Cutbacks at retailers in the southeast. A residential real estate market that is still in the dumps throughout most of the nation.

    A new report from the Federal Reserve paints a portrait of a U.S. economy under pressure from almost every direction — growth is slow, consumers and businesses are stressed by high fuel prices and banks are more reluctant to lend money.

    “Economic activity remained generally weak in late April and May,” said the Fed’s “beige book,” a compilation of anecdotal reports from businesses across the country. Three of the Fed’s 12 regions reported economic activity that was “softer, weaker, or lower,” and four reported “slower, sluggish, or modest” growth. The remaining districts described their regional economies as little changed in recent weeks.

  4. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Tests reveal chemical vapors that may invade homes

    A decades-old plume of underground pollution is back to haunt Pompton Lakes, and this time it may be invading as many as 350 homes.

    Tests in a neighborhood near DuPont’s former explosives factory grounds show that chemical vapors are emanating from groundwater pollution that is a legacy of the factory’s 92 years of operation. The pollution has defied DuPont’s ongoing, $130 million efforts to clean the area.

  5. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    FBI Halts Some Financial Cases to Investigate Mortgage Fraud

    The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation, confronting a surge in mortgage fraud, has ordered more than two dozen of its field offices to stop probing some financial crimes so agents can focus on the subprime crisis.

    Kenneth Kaiser, chief of the bureau’s criminal investigative division, issued the directive late last week on a video conference call with the heads of 26 offices in areas where mortgage crime is rampant, said Bill Carter, an FBI spokesman in Washington.

    Carter said the shift was made after an analysis of how agents are spending their time. The FBI traditionally has moved investigators to address urgent needs, he said. About 150 agents were working on more than 1,300 mortgage cases before the change.

    “If you’re seeing a significant crime problem, you have to move resources,” Carter said yesterday. “We’ve got a big problem with mortgage fraud.”

  6. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Mortgagers’ Dual Roles Clash
    June 12, 2008; Page A2

    Richard Syron, the blunt chief executive of mortgage giant Freddie Mac, often refers to his company and its bigger sibling, Fannie Mae, as “odd ducks.”

    That’s for sure. Freddie and Fannie are ungainly hybrids. They are part shareholder-owned profit-making companies, part government agencies with a mission to make mortgages cheaper and more widely available.

    And they are huge — much bigger than Bear Stearns, the investment bank whose collapse, we were told, threatened the entire financial system.

    The housing bust is heightening the tension between the two parts of the hybrid. Falling house prices and rising delinquencies weaken the companies financially, raising concerns about their stability and the risks they pose to taxpayers. After all, their entire business is housing. But the past year also underscores the societal importance of their mission — making home ownership more affordable for lower- and middle-class families and rescuing the economy when housing goes bust.

    The basic deal has been this: Fannie and Freddie make big profits for shareholders and pay high salaries. Shareholders benefit because Fannie and Freddie borrow more heavily than other financial companies and more cheaply, because everyone who lends them money assumes — correctly — that the U.S. government stands behind their debt. (Based on recent public filings, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have a debt-to-equity ratio — a measure of how leveraged they are — of 27.6 and 19.6, respectively. By contrast, the ratio at Bank of America and J.P. Morgan Chase is about 3.9.)

    In exchange for their borrowing advantages, Fannie and Freddie and their shareholders agree to promote affordable housing — even when it isn’t a great business — to be in the mortgage market when no one else wants to be, and to submit to regulation.

    “We’re trapped between these two worlds. It’s a good general caution about this fascination with public-private partnerships: The private sector gets rich and the public sector gets something, but the something may not be worth the government subsidy,” says Douglas Elmendorf, a Brookings Institution economist.

  7. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    SEC Backs Changes In Rules on Ratings
    Plan Would Bring Greater Disclosure; Key Firms Back It
    By KARA SCANNELL and AARON LUCCHETTI
    June 12, 2008; Page C2

    The Securities and Exchange Commission recommended sweeping changes to the bond-rating business, the latest moves in Washington to address the causes of the subprime meltdown.

    Among the proposals, the SEC would require credit-rating firms to make more information about ratings publicly available, would ban some practices and would require firms to clearly distinguish between corporate or government debt and the more complex structured products at the heart of the financial crisis.

    The three largest rating firms, by market share, Moody’s Corp., McGraw-Hill Cos.’ Standard & Poor’s unit, and Fimalac SA’s Fitch Ratings broadly welcomed the SEC’s move. Two groups that represent investor interests, the Council of Institutional Investors and the CFA Institute Centre for Financial Market Integrity, said they believed separate scales for structured-finance bonds and greater transparency would benefit investors.

    But others, including Wall Street firms and mortgage associations, are concerned that a new scale could cause investors to dump structured debt at fire-sale prices. At the same time, they worry that demand for those products, which are already hard to trade, would further diminish.

  8. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Thornburg swings to 1st-quarter loss, raises capital

    Thornburg Mortgage Inc., the Santa Fe., N.M., mortgage lender, swung to a first-quarternet loss before preferred-stock dividends of $3.31 billion, or $20.64 a share, from net income of $75 million, or 62 cents, in the year-earlier period. The loss reflects unrealized market-value losses of $1.54 billion from the decline in the fair-market value of the company’s mortgage-backed securities and securitized loan portfolios, Thornburg said. Analysts surveyed by FactSet Research were looking for a loss of $3.36 a share.

  9. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Citigroup to Close Hedge Fund; Blow to CEO
    By DAVID ENRICH and JENNY STRASBURG
    June 12, 2008; Page A1

    Citigroup Inc. is closing a hedge fund co-founded by Chief Executive Vikram Pandit, 11 months after Citigroup bought the fund’s management company for more than $800 million.

    Old Lane Partners has been dogged by mediocre returns and the loss of top managers. Citigroup plans to shut it and buy what is left of its assets, according to people familiar with the matter.

    Mr. Pandit personally reaped at least $165 million when Citigroup bought Old Lane in July 2007, following its founding the previous year. At the time, many large banks and brokerages saw hedge funds as a lucrative new business. Citigroup was also willing to pay a premium to land Mr. Pandit, who quickly moved up the ladder and became chief executive in December.

    But as the fund struggled, Citigroup was forced to choose between pumping new money into it or shutting it down. That created an awkward situation for the new CEO. Mr. Pandit removed himself from the deliberations to avoid the perception of a conflict of interest.

  10. Herring123 says:

    Who was it who said “New York City prices can’t go down – its too close to New York City.”

    But seriously, I think Manhattan prices will for the most part hold up (and by Manhattan I mean certain neighborhoods in Manhattan, I think the financial district is showing “real” signs of weakness) as (based purely on anecdotal experience) wall street layoffs disproportionately affect those who couldnt afford manhattan to begin with (the analyst and jr associate set at banks and their equivalent in related businesses).

  11. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Abu Dhabi And Chrysler Building: Get The Irony Of It All?

    Is it just me or is there some bitter irony to the fact that the Abu Dhabi Investment Council is reportedly buying a 75% stake in the Chrysler Building for $800 million?

    Yes, as you stand there, sweating under the heat of the summer sun and the stress of the $60 dollars you’re likely spending to top off your tank, you can take heart in the fact that your money is helping to fuel Manhattan’s commercial real estate market.

    Here is a building, completed in 1930 and built to house the headquarters of the once-great American auto manufacturer, being sold to the folks who are holding a death-grip on America’s wallets. But why should I be surprised? Didn’t the wealth funds of Kuwait and Qatar help to juice a record price for the GM building?? We all know oil goes with cars, but this is taking things a bit far.

    After all, who would have thought that a cruddy financial product designed to get less-than-credit-worthy borrowers into homes they couldn’t afford, would wind up spiraling into a situation ripe for Middle East oil money to buy up one of the great symbols of American industry and prosperity? Just my thoughts today.

  12. njrebear says:

    “Morgan Stanley ups U.S. financials to neutral”

    I bet MS will now stop lay offs?

  13. Herring123 says:

    Chrysler building is a big scam, as Cooper Union doesn’t pay taxes on it, even though the building (clearly) isn’t used for non-profit purposes. At least these guys will actually pay property taxes, as they don’t have some wacky non-profit law exempting them.

  14. mark says:

    How bad off is MS. I had a meeting their yesterday,,, looked like half the floor was empty… was the summer,,, or excess office space. meeting was in NYC

  15. Clotpoll says:

    grim (9)-

    The American Way: f*ck up and move up.

  16. Clotpoll says:

    More polite people call it “failing forward”.

  17. grim says:

    A mile away from rail? This is really pushing the definition of “transit village”, no?

    From the Star Ledger:

    Piscataway gives green light to ‘transit village’

    The 33-acre Fairway Golf Center in Piscataway is slated for redevelopment into a “transit village” with a mix of 331 residential units, retail stores and restaurants after the project recently received approval from the township planning board.

    Piscataway officials are promoting the development at Stelton and Ethel roads as the start of a much-needed restoration of that section of the township along the border with Edison. The property is owned by prominent Middlesex County developer Jack Morris and his company, Edgewood Properties.

    The “Fairways at Piscataway,” would include four three-story buildings. Retail, office and restaurant space would occupy the bottom floors with 136 residential rental units on the top two floors. The rest of the complex would include townhouses and condominiums sprawling across the property. The complex would provide 76 units for affordable housing.

    To maintain the transit village appeal, Fairways would provide a shuttle service to the Edison Rail Station, about a mile away. The current mini-golf course would remain, but the rest of the current golf complex would be demolished. A pool and clubhouse would be built. There would also be space for community police.

  18. Pat says:

    ‘”We’ve been going up against homes that banks were willing to sell for $75,000 less,” says Carollo.’

    I’m liking the $75k REO discount theory.

    I’ve also found it on two separate sets of comparable REO/Non-reo resales in the $325-425 range in Bucks County.

    Does anyone know if $75k came out of some black box, or just out of someone’s @ss?

  19. thatBIGwindow says:

    Fairways at Piscataway

    more like

    Projects at P-Way

  20. DL says:

    Re: 17: Transit Village. Is it possible they might think of building sidewalks/bike trails so commuters could walk/peddle the one mile to the train station?

    Re: 10: Weakness on Wall Street. I have an overseas friend who is considering buying a unit at 75 Wall. Are prices really weakening?

  21. grim says:

    From Fitch:

    Fitch U.S. Housing Update – Disappointing Spring; Negative Momentum Rules in 2008 and into 2009

    The housing downturn continues to have ‘legs’, and most of the statistical data reported so far in 2008 are discouraging, according to Fitch Ratings. The spring selling season was a ‘bust’. Although it does not appear likely that the year-over-year declines in major metrics such as starts, new home sales, and existing home sales will continue at the current pronounced pace throughout this year, the decreases are likely to be greater than Fitch’s prior projections. Perhaps more important, initial projections for 2009 are for further slippage in starts and new home sales. The three specters: poor buyer psychology, easing pricing, and excessive inventories, are likely to mitigate other modestly to moderately positive developments. Tightened credit standards should continue to largely offset improving affordability.

    Typically, there are positives and negatives relating to the housing sector at any point in time, but negatives continue to dominate.

  22. Pat says:

    Blood/Laughing…if I wasn’t working today, we could hit the courthouse and see what that house over on Colonial [off the Bypass] by you goes for? It’s still active for today.

  23. BC Bob says:

    “Bank sector in turmoil as HBOS share price falls”

    “The British banking sector was thrown into fresh uncertainty yesterday as underwriters to the huge HBOS rights issue were faced with the prospect of being lumbered with £4 billion of unwanted shares.”

    “Shares in Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and Alliance & Leicester, as well as HBOS, sank to levels not plumbed in at least eight years as London faced the possibility of the biggest equity capital flop since the BP fiasco of 1987.”

    “The fresh alarm was triggered when HBOS shares dropped below the 275p price at which it plans to issue £4 billion worth of new stock in five weeks, closing at 258p, down 12 per cent.”

    “Unless the share price recovers, the underwriters, Morgan Stanley and Dresdner Kleinwort, and sub-underwriters, will be forced to buy all the shares, leaving them with 29 per cent of the enlarged bank.”

    http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4116470.ece

  24. Al says:

    “I have a listing in St. Albans, [Queens],” says Anthony Carollo of Carollo Real Estate. “Their asking price was $399,000 [seven months ago], and they couldn’t sell it. We got it in April, and we started at $369,000.”

    That house was a well maintained, three-bedroom frame Colonial that had not been foreclosed on

    As for the listing in St. Albans: “We just dropped the price again, to $339,000.”

    So let me get this straight – houses in Queens are actually cheaper now than comparable houses in blue colar central NJ towns??

    Interesting…

  25. njrebear says:

    posing plosser?

    Plosser says regs for investment banks on the table
    Philly Fed Pres. Fred Plosser calls for pre-emptive action
    Plosser says interest rates in position to support growth
    Fed’s Plosser: Inflation threat is ‘serious’

  26. NNJ says:

    Are you kidding me, in a city of 8 million people there are less than a 1000 foreclosures.

    http://www.nypost.com/seven/06122008/photos/re050a.jpg

  27. Frank says:

    #25,
    Exactly, foreclosures make great NY Post story but in reality the housing market is still hot around NYC.

  28. Rich In NNJ says:

    …still hot around NYC.

    How is data of increased Y-O-Y forecloses in NYC (or a decrease for that matter) evidence of a “still hot” market “around NYC”?
    Or are you excluding NJ and CT in your statement?

  29. Tom says:

    Re: TV Home Improvement shows.

    I grew up watching this old house as a kid. I probably watched every single episode, including the stupid ones with adobe houses that I couldn’t apply anything from.

    When these new shows came out on HGTV and TLC I kept watching for laughs saying things like “OMFG! Tom Silva would never do something that stupid!”

    Somehow I got hooked on a few that were funny. Flip This/That House, whichever was the one on A&E with the Trademark team was awesome, primarily cause of the contractor and watching Ginger on the job site ;) Although when it moved to TLC it sucked. When FTH moved on to other RE investors it was strange but that Armondo guy, man, from the begining I thought “Now here’s a guy that’s going to self destruct on national TV!” And he did :)

    Then there’s DIY to the rescue. I keep thinking it’s a gag, except for the one chick on it that seems to have a clue. I still can’t get it out of my head this one time the helper guy was explaining how to polyurethane something. He sais “It’s important to keep a wet edge to get a good finish.” OK that’s true I thought, then comes… “A wet edge means you need to make sure you keep your brush loaded with poly.” WTF!?!?!?!? Doesn’t anyone screen these things?

  30. John says:

    Smith Barney Criteria for CIT Ratings Review
    􀀀 Based on our discussion with Moody’s, we think that CIT has to accomplish three goals to preserve its
    Baa1 rating:
    1. Get rid of the subprime mortgage overhang — Ideally, CIT would write down the portfolio and
    sell it; alternatively, it would take such a big write-off that it’s no longer an issue for creditors or
    possible strategic partners.
    2. Establish a strategic funding arrangement — The Goldman deal might be enough, Moody’s said,
    but then quickly added that CIT may be working on other arrangements. Moody’s would most
    likely prefer to see a deal with another institution that involved either an equity stake or a joint
    venture, we believe.
    3. Return to the public unsecured market — Demonstrating access to the debt markets would be a
    positive, Moody’s said, even if, as we suggested, the coupon were 9.50% or more.
    􀀀 Moody’s expects CIT to “pull it off” and said that it will likely confirm the Baa1 rating, indicating a
    more positive attitude toward CIT than we had previously thought

  31. Herring123 says:

    DL – re: Weakness on Wall Street.

    It’s my understanding based on various articles that for lux rentals, rents have dropped dramatically (from “obscene” to “very high”) compared to elsewhere in the city; can’t speak as to sales though.

  32. Clotpoll says:

    The purge begins at LEH. CFO and COO out!

  33. chicagofinance says:

    BREAKING NEWS:
    Lehman Brothers shares slump in early trading after CNBC reports bank’s finance chief and chief operating officer ousted. Full story to follow shortly.

  34. 3b says:

    #26 Frank Hot around NYC, you have got to be joking.

    Hey, you are entitled to your delusions, but come on, even the most blinded real estate bulls are no longer using the term hot.

  35. Essex says:

    I am amazed at home many $14M properties go under contract in the big apple….amazing.

  36. njrebear says:

    CFO out. SEC on their tail?

  37. gary says:

    And the ousted dooshbags from LEH probably get a nice parting gift, I’m sure.

  38. scribe says:

    Al, #23

    And do you know what property taxes are like in the outer boroughs of NYC?

    The typical, two-story, two-family, red brick structure on a 20 x 100 lot – about $2400 to $2800 a YEAR.

    There’s just no comparison between NJ property taxes and NYC.

  39. 3b says:

    #36 gary: And they will be using those gifts to buy houses in prestigious Bergen county.

  40. 3b says:

    #37 scribe: My parents house in the northwest Bronx, right on the Yonkers border.

    3beds 1.5 bath Lr,DR, small family room, fully finished basement, one car garage, 50 X 100 property.

    The taxes are $2100 a year.

  41. Essex says:

    anyone else exhausted? Financially and otherwise?

  42. jlx says:

    nyc income taxes are considerably higher tho

  43. GetAClueNJ says:

    #26

    Out of those 8 million people, how many do you think actually own their homes? I wouldn’t say very many. I bet there’s a high percentage that are renters.

  44. Sean says:

    I can hear a helicopter starting up down in Washington DC.

  45. bts says:

    Started looking at BC house rentals on NJMLS yesterday (plan B if prices don’t drop significantly after July 4). A couple of observations:
    1. Amazing how many places that are for sale are also for rent – I would say upwards of 50% of the properties I track are also for rent. I guess sellers think that the market will return and renting is a stop gap solution.
    2. Many of the rental prices are completely out of line. I wouldn’t pay $600k for your 3/2 split and I am definitely not going to rent it for $4000/month.

    Does anyone have experience lowballing a rental?

  46. Hard Place says:

    NYC will have its share of problems as well. I read in an article that supply of new condos coming online this year was double that of demand. I’ll have to dig around for that article. NYC has a tax abatement that will expire that all developers are trying to benefit. Big whammy of rush of supply, waning demand and slackening job market. It’s probably where NNJ was a year or two ago.

  47. 3b says:

    #45 hardplace: There are tons of condos and rentals that have yet to coem on line in the Wall St area. Not to mention many that are on line, but at or near empty.

  48. 3b says:

    Retail sales are up, and all is good agian;until tomorrow. CPI # anyone?

  49. #46 – many that are on line, but at or near empty 20 Pine St?

  50. John says:

    That is why so many Long Islanders own one and two family rental properties in Queens and not in Nassau county, in particular Bayside. RE taxes are very low and since you don’t live their you don’t get hit with property tax. Just buy a place in a town like Astoria, Woodside, Bayside that gets a young steady crowd of renters attracted by good train line and nightlife and the fact that these type of propertes are exempt from rent control.

    paying 200 a month taxes on a rental house is great for cash flow.

  51. BC Bob says:

    “Retail sales are up”

    3b,

    Maybe they’ll be $50B sent out each month to the starved shoppers?

  52. 3b says:

    348 20 Pine from what I understand is not on line yet.

  53. NNJ says:

    John, good points. I am not a grammer freak but you always confuse ‘there’ and ‘their’.

  54. Duckweed says:

    I am currently a renter in financial district. Two years ago the building (99 John Street)started being converted from all rental to condo. The listing for my unit, a ~500 sq. studio, was $525k. No discount for existing tenants. Supposedly the actual units would go through an upgrade (granite, etc). There was talk that they will no longer renew our lease. People moved out. I decided to hang around.

    There were some tenant interest. At one point a few people want to organize to try to form a coop and take over un-upgraded units from the management company for a cheaper price. It kind of fizzled. Then there were some collective bargaining plan where some tenants want to band together and buy at a discount. That too, not much came of it.

    In the mean time, conversion goes on, new wall paper, new paint. But they continued to rent, and renewed my lease. No rent increases.

    Two month ago, we got a flyer in the mail. 20% off listing price for existing tenants. That’s 100k and change haircut off my overpriced studio. I still laugh.

  55. #51 – They’ve certainly taken their time with that. Didn’t JPM sell the building in 2k4?

    #53 – I’ve heard a number if similar stories from other conversions in the FiDi. I might have to pay closer attention to see if any bargains show up.

  56. gary says:

    Bernanke needs to lower rates again to stimulate lending, don’t you all agree?

  57. Sean says:

    re: #55 Gary

    Bernake needs to start typing up a new coversheet for his resume.

  58. DoughBoy says:

    Downgrading from my cheap apartment and going to rent a room in a friend’s house at 1/4 the monthly cost with no lease, no security deposit.

    About 18 months from now should be a nice time to start picking off the ‘real deals’ otherwise I’ll just stay there and continue to bank cash and end up buying something eventually with even more money down.

    Sure, it is a “step back”, but as a single guy with nothing tying me down… what does it matter?

  59. prtraders2000 says:

    #44 – Sellers might consider renting their homes after they move if they expect to realize less on the sale than they paid. This is due to the tax treatment of a loss on personal property v. the loss on rental property. By converting to rental property the taxpayer can sell a year or two down the road and use the loss to offset other taxable income. There is no tax benefit for a capital loss on personal property. If this were the seller/landlords strategy, I would believe they would be more concerned with getting responsible tenants that wouldn’t trash the place over getting the highest rent. So they may be more negotiable on the rent.

  60. BC Bob says:

    “Bernanke needs to lower rates again to stimulate lending, don’t you all agree?”

    G-Man,

    He can lower to zero, doesn’t matter. Actually, he should raise, right now. Stop jawboning the market. At the same time we should release reserves,[spr]. Stop searching for excuses, crude. Do something.

  61. kettle1 says:

    Gary,

    yes we need lower rates and a even larger Stimulus Package 2 in order to be patriotic and turn this ship around ASAP.

    /sarcasm off/

  62. gary says:

    Vodka,

    Of course!! SP2! More Money! I need a jacuzzi and 270 inch flat screen, how ’bout you?

  63. 3b says:

    #54 You also have 15 Broad Street, 25 Broad Street, 75 Wall Street, 67 Wall Street, and, tons of inventory on William Street.

  64. John says:

    Pretty much $1,000+ a square foot for brand new condos downtown is the going rate for now. But by 2009 that will be a joke and it will be a lot less. The new condos are all the same and all renovated and all walking distance from each other. All I hear now is what floor, what view and price per square foot. Hard to stand out. Their and There always gives me a headache.

  65. gary says:

    BC Bob,

    FYI – I did have a Pisarcik jersey and I actually wore it, too!

  66. BC Bob says:

    3b,

    I’m out of NY, now at Exchange Pl., JC. Any more handouts at the WTC Path for condos in JC?

  67. chicagofinance says:

    gary Says:
    June 12th, 2008 at 9:26 am
    And the ousted dooshbags from LEH probably get a nice parting gift, I’m sure.

    g-man: that would be “douchebag”…take it from one….

  68. Essex says:

    Fixed-rate mortgage rates at highest since October
    Renewed concerns about inflation prompt rates to rise: economist
    By Amy Hoak, MarketWatch
    Last update: 10:42 a.m. EDT June 12, 2008CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Rates on fixed-rate mortgages rose to their highest levels in almost eight months this week after Federal Reserve officials expressed concern about inflation, Freddie Mac’s chief economist said on Thursday.
    The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.32% during the week ending June 12, up from 6.09% last week, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. The mortgage averaged 6.74% a year ago and the last time the rate was higher was the week ending Oct. 25, when it averaged 6.33%.

  69. Essex says:

    66. In a separate news release a source citied Erin’s bad spray-on tan as the reason for her termination.

  70. njpatient says:

    26 Frank

    “in reality the housing market is still hot around NYC.”

    No – there is substantial softening, DOM substantially increasing even in Manhattan, and my two friends who are in RE sales in the city (Manhattan/Brooklyn), both of whom I would describe as RE bulls, state that the outer boroughs are rapidly dying and Manhattan is at the precipice. One has sold everything and is doing only renovations, and the other has sold everything in Manhattan and only has three remaining properties in Brooklyn, which he is trying to sell but can’t.

  71. 3b says:

    #65 BC Bob: At least 2 or 3 times a month, and for Union City too.

    Speaking of JC, I have spent most of this week over there,and it looks like lots of luxury condos on the river for sale.

  72. njpatient says:

    essex
    “anyone else exhausted? Financially and otherwise?”

    Definitely as to otherwise.

  73. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    OCC: U.S. banks tightened lending standards

    A survey conducted by U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency found that the largest U.S. banks strengthened loan underwriting standards in the year ended March 31, the agency said Thursday. The 2008 survey included the 62 largest national banks and looked at an aggregate total of loans worth $3.7 trillion, or 83% of all outstanding loans in the national banking system. “The disruption in financial markets that began in 2007 led to an abrupt change in risk appetite of the majority of the banks and a renewed focus on fundamental credit principles by bank lenders,” said the OCC, an agency of the Treasury Department.

  74. Hard Place says:

    Waiting for those luxury goods to hit 50% off.

  75. njpatient says:

    53 weed
    “Two month ago, we got a flyer in the mail. 20% off listing price for existing tenants. That’s 100k and change haircut off my overpriced studio. I still laugh.”

    Do you know any insiders who bought 25% too high?

  76. njpatient says:

    “I did have a Pisarcik jersey and I actually wore it, too!”

    Gary – even after The Hand-Off?

  77. HEHEHE says:

    Italian Buys The Flatiron Building

    Spurred by the weak dollar and the strong euro, European travelers to the U.S. have been lapping up everything from Gap boxers to iPhones to luxury condos in Palm Beach. Now a top Italian real estate investor has nabbed a crown piece of New York property, a sale that echoes the Japanese purchase of Rockefeller Center in 1989. Valter Mainetti has confirmed to TIME that his company, the Sorgente Group, has acquired a majority share of Manhattan’s historic Flatiron building.

    http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1813198,00.html?imw=Y

  78. njpatient says:

    Now, on CNN.com:
    With foreclosures at an all-time high, the real estate meltdown is sending shock waves throughout the U.S. economy.

    We want to hear how the crisis is affecting you — whether you are fighting to hang onto your home
    or know someone else who is. Is your mortgage rate about to reset to a much higher rate? Have you been trying to sell your home, only to slash the price over and over? Or did you score a steal in a down market?

    To be considered for a feature, send us your story and photo, or upload a video telling us all about your home and your family.

  79. HEHEHE says:

    Credit Crunch Turns Condos Into Rentals

    A coming wave of developments originally envisioned as condominiums will instead be rented, observers say, due to lenders’ reluctance to finance condominiums in the midst of a credit crunch.

    http://www.nysun.com/real-estate/credit-crunch-turns-condos-into-rentals/79861/

  80. kettle1 says:

    patient

    saw your article from yesterday…. interesting stuff

  81. 3b says:

    #78 njpatient: Another CNN WAHHHHHHHHHHHHH story.

    Like the one I saw a couple of months back where some woman was sobbing that she was going to lose her home.

    Her salary was 38K a year, and she purcashed a 760k house with one of those I/o low teaser rates. Of course she said she did not know, and the broker told her she could refinance, and all the rest.

    I was yelling at the TV, refianace? Refiance into what?

    Of course Mr. Dobbs was full of righteous indignation and disgust at how this poor woman was wronged.

    Never once did he ask her what business did a person making 38k a year have purchasing a 700K plus house.

  82. BC Bob says:

    “Credit Crunch Turns Condos Into Rentals”

    he [79],

    Formerly known as condominiums. Pretty soon they’ll drop condo, just be known as miniums.

  83. Frank says:

    #33,
    3B,
    Look at the RE market in CA, NV, AZ and FL then talk to me about NJ RE market.
    NY/NJ market is still on fire in comparison to the rest of the country.

  84. photoalchemy says:

    Looks like we’re getting all our money back from the cheap dollar & foreign investment in real estate.

    Right?

    “Freddie Mac and its fellow GSE Fannie Mae are now financing more than 80 percent of all mortgages in the U.S., up from 40 percent a year ago.

    As lenders rely on Freddie Mac to buy their loans, the company is charging higher prices and increasing market share. Freddie Mac, which has a $738 billion portfolio of mortgage bonds and guarantees $1.78 trillion in home loans, is raising prices next month for the fourth time.

    http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=AP&date=20080520&id=8671036

  85. kettle1 says:

    anybody catch NPR this morning? they were pointing out that china and other countries are seeing double digit inflation while here in the US we are only running at 4-5 %.

    mmmmmm fudge! too bad CPI is really running at about 12% and M3 is at about 17%

    Take a look…. does anyone else find this somewhat alarming?
    http://tinyurl.com/3bhh8b

  86. BC Bob says:

    “Look at the RE market in CA, NV, AZ and FL then talk to me about NJ RE market.
    NY/NJ market is still on fire in comparison to the rest of the country.”

    The best of the worst?

  87. NNJ says:

    In times of high inflation, are you not supposed to buy hard assets, like RE?? Or is it ‘if there is blood on the street, buy RE’.

  88. NJ Homehunter says:

    Can anyone provide more information on this listing.
    Am I wrong in thinking that this has been listed at $490K to start a bidding war or is there something wrong with this house.

    MLS #: 2507502

    Built in 2006 , listed for $490K in Scotch Plains, Tax – $9700

    Great site by the way.

    Thanks much.

  89. njpatient says:

    “NY/NJ market is still on fire in comparison to the rest of the country.”

    Carlos Delgado is on fire in comparison to Mario Mendoza but he still sucks.

  90. Clotpoll says:

    Frank (83)-

    “NY/NJ market is still on fire in comparison to the rest of the country.”

    Compared to a moron or an idiot, a simpleton looks like Einstein…who had some understanding of the real meaning of relativity.

  91. jcer says:

    Inventory in JC is nuts, no capitulation on price, very light on transactions given the inventory. The market is effectively dead, a friend of mine is a RE agent in Ridgewood and he was telling me that he is getting emails from developers in JC offering bonuses for bringing in buyers. With any luck we will see prices fall through the floor there and sales volume will pick up. Project like canco will have to go rental or fire sale, they are really nice apartments, piss poor location on the edge of an Indian neighborhood surrounded by industrial buildings and directly abutting the pulaski skyway.

  92. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (86)-

    Who the hell knows? Gubmint may have a clue, but it seems they’ve just chosen to lie to us.

    The fact that they are lying tells you a lot about what they really do know.

  93. njpatient says:

    “That house was a well maintained, three-bedroom frame Colonial that had not been foreclosed on

    As for the listing in St. Albans: “We just dropped the price again, to $339,000.”

    That does not compare favorably with listing I just received for a $769K three-bedroom in Brigadoon with $14K in taxes (but dig the antique pine paneling in the rec room/office!):
    http://tinyurl.com/675ndu

  94. lisoosh says:

    Al Says:
    June 12th, 2008 at 8:05 am

    “So let me get this straight – houses in Queens are actually cheaper now than comparable houses in blue colar central NJ towns??

    Interesting…”

    I noticed that too. Add in the lesser taxes, lesser car insurance and efficient public transportation (dump that 2nd car, spend less on gas) and Queens beats out a LOT of NJ neighbourhoods.

  95. njpatient says:

    Aaaaah – THIS explains the $769K price tag on the 3-bedroom with $14K in taxes. It’s the huge updated kitchen!!!
    http://tinyurl.com/68crcj

  96. njpatient says:

    “Add in the lesser taxes, lesser car insurance and efficient public transportation (dump that 2nd car, spend less on gas) and Queens beats out a LOT of NJ neighbourhoods.”

    Yeah, but when the nuclear strike hits Manhattan, it will take a lot longer to escape to Pennsylvania.

  97. lisoosh says:

    njpatient Says:
    June 12th, 2008 at 11:39 am

    “That does not compare favorably with listing I just received for a $769K three-bedroom in Brigadoon with $14K in taxes (but dig the antique pine paneling in the rec room/office!):
    http://tinyurl.com/675ndu

    Gorgeous. And that tile ceiling and air ducts just scream out 3 quarters of a million dollar house to me.

  98. 3b says:

    #94 njpatient: Charm abounds!!!

  99. njpatient says:

    The carpeting in the family room (with wet bar!) does join with the pine paneling to create a cozy atmosphere. I can just imagine sitting in their, sipping a Manhattan, or perhaps a Sidecar, watching the Andy Griffith show.
    http://tinyurl.com/6ksohl

  100. lisoosh says:

    njpatient Says:
    June 12th, 2008 at 11:43 am

    “Yeah, but when the nuclear strike hits Manhattan, it will take a lot longer to escape to Pennsylvania.”

    The basic choice is one of instant vaporization or a long slow painfull death from radiation sickness as you puke up your guts and watch your skin peel off.

    The vaporization is preferrable.

    Plus, the electomagnetic pulse that somebody is sure to add in to an attack will render all cars useless, so being in Jersey will have absolutely no benefit.

  101. njpatient says:

    and, to be fair, that previous picture of the kitchen was from an unflattering angle. here’s a more flattering shot:

    http://tinyurl.com/67t67t

  102. njpatient says:

    “The vaporization is preferrable.”

    Yeah, but I can’t afford to live in Manhattan.

  103. 3b says:

    #83 frank: On fire? How about we just agree that Ny/NJ amrket is doing better than the other markets that you mention,for now.

    Which of course means nothing.

  104. lisoosh says:

    njpatient Says:
    June 12th, 2008 at 11:42 am
    “Aaaaah – THIS explains the $769K price tag on the 3-bedroom with $14K in taxes. It’s the huge updated kitchen!!!
    http://tinyurl.com/68crcj

    Silly. The premium is for the custom polka dot wall paper.

  105. lisoosh says:

    njpatient Says:
    June 12th, 2008 at 11:51 am
    “The vaporization is preferrable.”

    “Yeah, but I can’t afford to live in Manhattan.”

    I’m sure you can vaporize just as effectively in the Outer Boroughs.

  106. John says:

    http://www.mlsli.com/unidetailsredo.CFM?MLNum=2084922&typeprop=1&start=1&rpp=10

    Queens makes much more sense, this REO in the low threes is in a very good neighborhood, close to parkways, train, express bus and ten minutes to St. Johns and like 12 miles to Manhattan. You can rent this out for more the same price as that $769k house that has 6x the taxes. Plus this house is in good elementary school district and right by a great park.

  107. Hard Place says:

    njpat,

    Yeah, but when the nuclear strike hits Manhattan, it will take a lot longer to escape to Pennsylvania.

    Almost scary, but I have thought this too. That’s exactly why I would not want to live in Queens or Long Island. No where else to go when Manhattan is hit. Everyone will be running for the boats to sail off the island. To even think like that, we may have watched one too many Armaggedon type movies.

  108. Nom Deplume says:

    [159] NJP (from yesterday’s thread)

    LOL, yeah, 6K.

    If the recruiter is right, I happen to know you have it.

  109. kettle1 says:

    97 patient

    http://meyerweb.com/eric/tools/gmap/hydesim.html

    This link will show you the expected damage at different distances from the center of a nuclear strike, overlayed on googlemaps.

    FYI the smallest nukes that the US and russia have for “general use” is about 50 Kilotons (KT o). i believe that most of the US and Russian weapons are around 100KT but we have a large number of “dial-a-yield” weapons, where the explosive power can be set within a given range, i.e 75 – 150 KT.

    1 kiloton is the explosive equivalent of 1 ton of TNT being detonated.

  110. Nom Deplume says:

    Ket,

    Assuming missles, what is the CEP? They can aim for Manhattan and wind up in Parsippany for all I know. Also, can we safely assume that fallout will drift N.E. with what are generally prevailing winds?

    I am liking my idea of sanctuary/productive farmland/weekend spot in N.E. Pennsylvania even more.

  111. RayC says:

    NJ Homehunter

    Can anyone provide more information on this listing.
    Am I wrong in thinking that this has been listed at $490K to start a bidding war or is there something wrong with this house.

    MLS #: 2507502

    __________________

    It is not priced to start a bidding war, it sat at $509, and I believe $499 (among other prices) for some time.

    RayC

  112. NNJ says:

    Don’t forget Queens has NYC Income tax of upto 4%.

  113. kettle1 says:

    also consider that the more devastating attack would be to airburst a nuke at high altitude over the east coast. Little if any ground damage would occur due to the immediate effects of the blast, but the EMP would wipe out the electronic infrastructure of the majority of the east coats. The EMP would wipe out everything from cell phones to any modern car to PC’s, commuter train controls…… .

    This is worse then a direct strike on Manhattan. Manhattan is one city. but imagine the devastation from wiping out a90% of electrical devices on the east coats. Society on the east coast would collapse and you would have a Katrina type mess on an unimaginable scale

  114. jcer says:

    John, your assessment is bad, huge difference between st. albans queens and Westfield. Maybe if you compare Forest Hills to Westfield you’d be closer in terms of the housing and amenities. Please note the level of college educated people, median income, CRIME rate. A better comparison would be West Orange where a comparable house could be purchased for similar $$ but with ludicrous taxes.

  115. Jamey says:

    My uncle, a VP at an [name redacted] Wall St equities firm called to say, “if you have more than $100k in any one bank, start moving things around.”

    Anecdotal, sure. But when a trader says CYA against bank failures, that’s gotta mean something

  116. kettle1 says:

    Nom,

    an older NY target list….

    http://tinyurl.com/4prtxv

  117. John says:

    Re 115 I am only talking about making a profit from renting. Good Neighborhoods the houses cost almost triple a bad neighborhood each month but rents are no where triple.

    I never heard of Westfield is it nice, where the heck is it?

  118. Pat says:

    jamey, the more conservative of us juggled Grandma’s stuff more than two months ago.

    We’re relaxing in our pine-panelled dens, wearing crush valor and relishing the comfort of our naugahyde recliners.

  119. BC Bob says:

    Jamey [116],

    Your uncle is a smart man.

  120. Stu says:

    Approaching 48 hours without power at the old Montclair household. I suppose we shouldn’t complain. Two years ago we wer out for over 96 hours. Perhaps we ought to just permanently unplug the fridge and just stock the pantry with Ramen. Well, until the NG prices triple ;)

  121. njpatient says:

    109 nom

    I did, but I had to give it to the U of Penn.

  122. njpatient says:

    lisoosh, 110 ket

    I guess you’re right, ‘soosh. Looks like I could even get vaporized in Hoboken, Weehawken and parts of JC (pretorius probably knew that already).

  123. kettle1 says:

    Nom,

    I cant find it right now, but there are official fallout projection maps and they show that pretty much anything west of the hudson is safe from fallout in an NYC strike

  124. jam says:

    Thank goodness most if not all the prestigous Bergen County towns will be safe.

  125. Nom Deplume says:

    124[ket]

    That was my thinking. Don’t knock yerself out here for my benefit. Don’t care to get too off topic, lest Grim rename this the NJ Real Estate and Civil Defense Report.

    [122] NJP

    That explains all the new furniture in the lounge area.

  126. photoalchemy says:

    I heard you should spread your accounts around & invest 100k in each transit village.

    House passes bill funding Northeast corridor high-speed rail expansion
    by The Associated Press Thursday June 12, 2008, 9:41 AM
    Train travelers moved closer to a faster trip to New York or Washington with House passage of a bill supporting construction of a high-speed rail system in the Northeast, according to a report in the Asbury Park Press.

    The report said the bill would authorize $14.4 billion for Amtrak and for states to develop intercity passenger rail systems in addition to high-speed rail systems during the next five years, including the Washington-to-Boston Northeast Corridor. The vote’s 311-104 margin Wednesday exceeds the two-thirds majority necessary to override President Bush’s threatened veto and aa 13 New Jersey House members voted for the bill.

  127. kettle1 says:

    time article on the prospect of a fight with iran

    http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1813706,00.html

  128. Nom Deplume says:

    [117]

    Interesting. Vermont Yankee still shows as active. I thought it had been decomm’ed

    Funny story from inside containment at VT Yankee. Will have to share it sometime.

  129. kettle1 says:

    129 nom,

    yankee has been extended by the feds a couple times and the state politicians are fighting to have it closed.

  130. grim says:

    Careful everyone, looks like we’ve got a swindler on the loose. The worst kind too, an ex-Hedgie.

    Feds: Missing NY swindler armed and dangerous

    Federal marshals in New York have issued a “Wanted” poster that says a missing hedge-fund swindler should be considered “armed and dangerous.”

    A car belonging to Samuel Israel III was found Monday on a bridge over the Hudson River, with “Suicide is Painless” etched into the dust on the hood. But no body has been found, and investigators believe Israel may be on the lam.

    He was supposed to start a 20-year prison sentence Monday for bilking investors out of $450 million in hedge funds.

  131. njpatient says:

    116 Jamey
    I started telling my friends the same thing last September.

  132. Nom Deplume says:

    [130] Ket

    Must have extended the cooling ponds again.

    Recall being in the turbine room, watching steam hit the blades thru a small glass window, and someone asked, BWR or PWR, and the guide said BWR.

    Everyone in the group started stepping away from the window.

  133. grim says:

    From DealBreaker:

    Layoffs Watch ’08: BoA

    Not to change the subject, but Bank of America is apparently in the process (as in this morning) of laying off IB employees

  134. Essex says:

    72….just wake me up when it is over.

  135. Essex says:

    131. RUN IZZY RUN! Everyone likes a good fugitive story.

  136. njpatient says:

    127 photo

    “Train travelers moved closer to a faster trip to New York ”

    Imagine what that’ll do to the phrase “close to Manhattan”!

  137. njpatient says:

    131 grim

    “But no body has been found, and investigators believe Israel may be on the lam.”

    Nah – definitely suicide. He’s the type of guy who’d feel too guilty about the money he’d stolen.

  138. Ben says:

    Rich it is still hot in NYC. I think it was like over 95 over the weekend.

  139. kettle1 says:

    Nom,

    2 questions…..
    1 given that you are a legal beagle, what were you doing at a nuclear reactor?

    2 sorry if i am being dense, but you are supposed to run steam through turbines…. both PWRs and BWRs use the primary cooling loop to produce steam in a secondary loop. the steam in the secondary loop turn a turbine for power generation. am i missing something?

  140. kettle1 says:

    somewhat back on topic…..

    how does the government think they are going to fix the root of current US economic issues without moving away from a consumer economy? Being a consumer economy only works when you are the financial bigdog in the world and only while you can sustain the debt. we ca no longer sustain the debt.

    Until we as a society recognize that the consumer lifestyle is dead and we had best start producing something of value to sell to the world we are hosed.

  141. Essex says:

    We can no longer sustain debt because the banks violated a cardinal rule of bidness…they crapped in their nest.

  142. grim says:

    10y @ 4.20%

    wow

  143. NJLifer says:

    86 kettle

    I don’t think there is a single country right now that is not fudging their inflation numbers. If China says they have 10% inflation, rest assured it’s prbably close to 20%.

  144. grim says:

    A few bps away from being at a 6/7 month high.

  145. Richie says:

    I thought this blog was down for a day; but I guess Grim stopped paying for njrealestatereport.com because it’s coming up as a dead link.

    oh well

  146. BC Bob says:

    “Until we as a society recognize that the consumer lifestyle is dead and we had best start producing something of value to sell to the world we are hosed.”

    kettle,

    We are hosed.

  147. BC Bob says:

    “A few bps away from being at a 6/7 month high.”

    Exactly Bergabe’s intentions. Nothing cures idiot bankers better than a positive sloping yield curve.

  148. Nom Deplume says:

    [141] Ket,

    1. Field trip for Nuclear Energy and Issues class. In the ’80s, nuke issues were hot and I had classes that dealt with power generation, proliferation, and war game theories (my favorite was the Decapitation Theory that a massive airburst above Omaha would produce enough EMP to blow out circuitry across the continental US)

    2. We were taught that in a BWR, there is no heat exchanger and secondary loop. The steam comes directly from the core (meaning that the water is also radioactive). Now, I could be wrong about that, but that was what we were taught, and I am not an engineer.

    Now, back to real estate and banking.

  149. Richie says:

    Approaching 48 hours without power at the old Montclair household. I suppose we shouldn’t complain. Two years ago we wer out for over 96 hours. Perhaps we ought to just permanently unplug the fridge and just stock the pantry with Ramen. Well, until the NG prices triple ;)

    Think of all the $ your saving by not having to run your AC unit!

  150. Nom Deplume says:

    [141] Ket,

    Because I doubted my understanding, I cut this off of some website:

    “This design (diagram next page) has many similarities to the PWR, except that there is only a single circuit in which the water is at lower pressure (about 75 times atmospheric pressure) so that it boils in the core at about 285°C. The reactor is designed to operate with 12-15% of the water in the top part of the core as steam, and hence with less moderating effect and thus efficiency there.

    The steam passes through drier plates (steam separators) above the core and then directly to the turbines, which are thus part of the reactor circuit. Since the water around the core of a reactor is always contaminated with traces of radionuclides, it means that the turbine must be shielded and radiological protection provided during maintenance. . . .”

    Now that everyone’s eyes have glazed over, I am going to drop this topic.

  151. ricky_nu says:

    I think it may have been posted in the last day or two, but what was the website that had a search engine for Property Sales and historical tax records for Bergen county?

  152. Against The Grain says:

    Re: Armagedon in Manhattan

    A few years ago out here in Sussex County I went to a presentation given by a local emergency management person who stated that a big part of his job was planning for an influx of refugees from NYC in the event of an attack.

    Here’s something to think about for all you potential refugees: most people around here are heavily armed. Be careful.

  153. NJLifer says:

    154 ATG:

    “planning for an influx of refugees from NYC”…

    Let’s look at the bright side, maybe they’ll decide to settle here and get rid of some of the excess housing inventory :)

  154. njpatient says:

    OMG – I just now realized that Obama is younger than Don Mattingly.

    I think I’m going to be sick.

  155. jcer says:

    John, Westfield is considered “Prestigious” the housing varies from nice to kind of old. I think it is way, way, way overvalued but it is a pretty nice town and has a very nice main street, train commute to NYC is a bit long which is why I think it is valued too high. It is very safe and has good schools which is key in NJ.

    The truth is rental investment properties are almost always in marginal neighborhoods(That have colonies of young professionals moving in), you will give a young white collar worker a nice apartment close to the city for a good rent, in exchange the neighborhood is improving and you can eventually raise the rent, when the neighborhood makes the turn you profit big by selling. In a good area the competition from buyers who intend to live in the property and have a propensity not to look at the risk and cash flow. The truth is the worse the neighborhood the better the cap rate, I can buy property in Newark all week long that are 10 cap properties. In Hoboken you’d be hard pressed to get an 8 cap.

  156. njpatient says:

    “Westfield is considered “Prestigious” the housing varies from nice to kind of old” to somebody’s-entire-family-was-hacked-up-in-here.

  157. prtraders2000 says:

    Anyone have an opinion on Hazlet? I had been hoping for Fair Haven, but maybe this is a more realistic alternative.

  158. John says:

    Westfield is a bunghole, just for fun I googled it and up popped this!!!

    http://westfieldnj.com/support-group/

  159. njpatient says:

    “Anyone have an opinion on Hazlet? ”

    That loser couldn’t coach his way out of a wet paper bag, right gary?

  160. #159 – I grew up there.
    The schools aren’t that great, neighborhoods are fairly straight middle-class (or what passes for it today), traffic in the past 8 years has become increasingly like Staten Island. Good commute options into the city, Academy, NJ Train & bus, ferries not too far.
    Very middle of the road, not horrible & not great.
    Were you looking for specific info?
    I’m moving back there at the end of summer as I got a free house.

  161. John says:

    Friend at KPMG just told me second round of layoffs announced this morning. They did a first round of layoffs two months ago which was supposed to be the only round of layoffs. When they start naming the number of the rounds of layoffs you are in trouble.

  162. manhattanexile says:

    John #160

    That’s not nice – every town has one of these:

    From another “prestigious” Bergen County town:

    “Career Resource Ministry Winter/Spring Workshops

    The Career Resource Ministry will be presenting the fourth in a series of Winter/ Spring Workshops on May 4, 2008, at 12 Noon in the Parish Center. This invitation is extended to anyone seeking employment or who may be anticipating possible unemployment. An individual does not have to be a member of Mount Carmel Parish to attend. Anyone interested in the subject matter is invited to attend and all are welcome.

    Professionals, who are members of the Ministry, will be on hand with advice on the topic: “Interview, Cultivate Offers and Negotiate”. Every discussion with a hiring manager should be considered an interview. Your role in the discussion is to position your skills, talents and experiences as the solution to the challenges they face in their organizations. Your task is to cultivate an offer by helping the hiring manager see you in that role, and eventually make you an offer. Professionals will also help with questions following the presentation. Please bring along your most recent resume or job experience information.”

  163. John says:

    To Erin of Lehman Brothers

    Love John

    I can’t take my eyes off of you

    I can’t take my eyes off you

    I can’t take my eyes off of you

    I can’t take my eyes off you

    I can’t take my eyes off you

    I can’t take my eyes…

    Did I say that I loathe you?

    Did I say that I want to

    Leave it all behind?

    I can’t take my mind off of you

    I can’t take my mind off you

    I can’t take my mind off of you

    I can’t take my mind off you

    I can’t take my mind off you

    I can’t take my mind…

    My mind…my mind…

    ‘Til I find somebody new

  164. kettle1 says:

    nom,

    you are correct, i was mixing up my reactor types :)

  165. Essex says:

    OK…John….you should get some rest.

  166. Stu says:

    “you are correct, i was mixing up my reactor types :)”

    I hate when I do that!

  167. John says:

    http://www.newyorkfed.org/mortgagemaps/

    This is cool, enter your zipcode and gives you subprime stats for your town. From the Fed

  168. BC Bob says:

    How does the pipeline look?

    “Compensation packages offered to new Wall Street hires may fall 20 percent from peaks, according to a survey released by the smart cube, a global research boutique. “We are operating in what is clearly a buyers’ market (for talent) that appears likely to continue for at least the short to medium term,” the firm said. Some recruiters cited a trend to slash or even eliminate signing bonuses for new hires. Respondents also indicated the hiring process is taking longer, firms are often hiring temporary or contract employees, and candidates fearful of pricing themselves out of the market have “significantly scaled back their compensation demands.”

    http://news.efinancialcareers.co.uk/newsandviews_item/newsItemId-14002

  169. prtraders2000 says:

    162 – Thanks TM. I’m on a middle of the road budget. I saw an REO come up. 50 Knoll Terrace. Doesn’t look half bad from the outside, except for what appears to be train tracks in back of the place.

  170. njpatient says:

    This one’s for jamil, regarding China not drilling for oil off Florida/Cuba:

    http://www.miamiherald.com/campaign08/story/567156.html

  171. njpatient says:

    “Doesn’t look half bad from the outside, except for what appears to be train tracks in back of the place.”

    Comes complete with really large toy train!

  172. kettle1 says:

    nom,

    dont worry, a dose of radiation can be good for you. the catch is the the line between good dose and bad dose is different for everyone.

    In case you are curious, a dose of radiation can be good for you because the right dose will boost your immune system. to much kills it.

    you can thank the military doing illegal experiments on soldiers and civilians in the 50’s and 60’s for that little nugget. they dosed people without their knowledge and then tracked their health. injecting people with plutonium was one of the early types of experiments that they did.

  173. njpatient says:

    169 john

    cool.

    Looking at % 90-days delinquent: Who knew that the bubble had hit Alabama and Mississippi so hard?

  174. njpatient says:

    foreclosure rate higher in NJ than CA

  175. #172 – I know exactly where that is. You will definitely hear the train from there. If the price is right though it could be worth it. Other than the train that’s a quieter section of the town. Traffic on keyport-holmdel rd can be very heavy. You would be close to Holmdel park which is nice if you have kids.

    I’ll be moving about 2 miles to the north east of that, somewhere off of Middle Rd.

  176. Essex says:

    maine tied with NJ there patient. So much for New England austerity.

  177. Frank says:

    “Anyone have an opinion on Hazlet?”

    Redneck central.

  178. kettle1 says:

    dont worry about inflation guys….. I mean Zimbabwe is currently at 355,000% inflation, so its not like we are doing so bad, really!

  179. skep-tic says:

    maine has pretty neat combination of second homes and some of the poorest people on the east coast (actual mainers). sounds to me like a recipe for foreclosures on both ends

  180. Sean says:

    re: Hazlet

    I took the scenic route over the weekend returning from the Jersey shore on a three hour McMansion tour. There is a strange correlation between the number of McMansions for sale and the number of boarded up Go-Go joints on Rt. 35. The stretch of Rt 35 from around Hazlet to Perth Amboy is loaded up with derelict strip malls, abandoned boats and what seemed to be allot of Go-Go joints.

  181. NNJ says:

    http://ny.therealdeal.com/articles/a-hedge-against-chaos-in-zimbabwe

    In May 2007, a three-bedroom home with manicured gardens and a swimming pool in the upper-middle-class suburb of Borrowdale cost 4 billion Zimbabwe dollars. Six months later, the house was still on the market, this time listed for 380 billion Zimbabwe dollars. That house is still for sale, but last month a similar home in the same enclave went for 8 trillion Zimbabwe dollars.

  182. Essex says:

    Sean that sounds like a graduate thesis to me.

  183. MS says:

    I saw this last night on the Pharmalot site.
    For the employees of Schering-Plough it has been months and months and months of “psychological terrorism” (there have been ongoing layoffs for at least a year, but this is by far the biggest).
    When a newspaper site calls it “bloodletting” you know it’s bad…
    http://www.pharmalot.com/2008/06/schering-plough-bloodletting-begins-this-week/

  184. Sean says:

    re: Northeast corridor high-speed rail expansion Bill.

    The train may be high speed but it will for damm sure stop at every town along the way.

  185. # 183 – The stretch of Rt 35 from around Hazlet to Perth Amboy is loaded up with derelict strip malls, abandoned boats and what seemed to be allot of Go-Go joints.

    It has always been like this. It was actually worse in the early 80s!

  186. 3b says:

    #135 grim: and they announced the sale of their prime broakerage the other day, it’s being bought by Paribas

  187. jam says:

    I’ve always done better buying stocks after a good tumble and then holding rather than buying on the way up.
    Does this correlate to the real estate market?
    Could we be at a safer buying level than we were last year – assuming that you are buying to live in the home, not buying to flip the home.

  188. Sean says:

    Humm, decisions, decisions.

    Grimm, any chance you would move the GTG to
    the PNC?

    http://www.ticketmaster.com/event/02004059AD867403?artistid=735341&majorcatid=10001&minorcatid=200

  189. 3b says:

    #172 prtrader: except for what appears to be train tracks in back of the place.

    DONT DO IT!!!!

  190. #191 – They’re playing the Garden as well. The last time I saw them was on the Somewhere in Time tour (yes, I am that old) and there was a riot. Any idea of who is opening?

  191. It looks like the openers are Trivium and Lauren Harris (this isn’t Steve Harris’ kid is it?).
    Per wikipedia yes it is.

  192. Sean says:

    toshiro no idea who is opening but the reviews so far have been great.

    http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&q=iron%20maiden&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wn

  193. GetAClueNJ says:

    #177

    I really want to believe. Do you have any evidence?

  194. BC Bob says:

    “toshiro no idea who is opening but the reviews so far have been great.”

    Sean,

    I heard the reviews, regarding the previous GTG’s, were great.

  195. njpatient says:

    Thank goodness the DJIA skyrocketed and oil plummeted today!

  196. njpatient says:

    196 getaclue

    That stat was from John’s link at 169

    so as to evidence: yes.

  197. kettle1 says:

    China-Cuba rumors fuel renewed offshore drilling debate
    Rumors of China drilling in Cuban waters are rallying support for drilling off Florida’s coast, but experts say they’re untrue.

    http://www.miamiherald.com/campaign08/story/567156.html

  198. NJLifer says:

    Patient,

    I think there is some confusion about the numbers on John’s link. All of the following have CA in much worse shape than NJ:

    Loans per 1000 housing units
    In foreclosure per 1000 housing
    REO’s per 1000 housing units

    Should we be looking at other numbers?

  199. njpatient says:

    where’s cindy these days?

    summer vacation?

  200. njpatient [161],

    Hazlet is a nar, plain and simple. And so are the Saints.

  201. njpatient says:

    201 NJL

    No confusion. The number that I am looking at is “share in foreclosure”, where NJ is worse than CA in both subprime and Alt-A. That category is defined in the appendix thus:

    “Percent in Foreclosure means the share of loans for which the lender has initiated the foreclosure process but has not completed it. The length of the foreclosure process varies by state, so two otherwise equal areas in different states could record different foreclosure shares if the foreclosure process takes longer in one state than the other. Thus, this field measures the stock of loans in foreclosure at a particular time, not the rate of completed foreclosures.”

    Seems to me like NJ is just a bit behind the curve in facing reality, rather than having a nicer reality.

    Is it Clot who makes the comparison to Wile E. Coyote after he runs off the cliff but before he looks down?

  202. hmm.. someone posting as me again.

  203. 3b says:

    #204 nj: Don’t tell Frank

  204. njpatient says:

    NJ and CA also almost exactly equal in late payments during the preceding 12 months (in both categories) and approximately equal in resets in the next 12 months and in 90-day delinquencies (in both categories).

    In short, it looks like the leading indicators put NJ in as bad a position as CA.

  205. gary says:

    toshiro [205],

    No, that was my post. Your name pops in my name field from time to time. I believe we work for the same establishment.

  206. njpatient says:

    “hmm.. someone posting as me again.”

    which posts?

    On at least one previous occasion, pretorius posted as chicagofinance (which he immediately admitted and stated was some sort of computer malfunction).

  207. njpatient says:

    208 gary

    how odd.

  208. njpatient says:

    3B

    I’ll be vewwy, vewwy quiet.

  209. Rich In NNJ says:

    Ricky Nu (193)

    Was it this site from The Record?

  210. lostinny says:

    I’m very excited. I’ll be able to go to the gtg!

  211. Escape From NJ says:

    Here is an interesting fable. Moral of the story is that hard working and honest = sucker.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/moneyhappy/87379

  212. njpatient says:

    NJL – nevermind – you’re right. NJ is doing as badly in keeping up with its subprime and Alt-A loans as CA but doesn’t have as many. Point taken.

  213. njpatient says:

    “I’m very excited. I’ll be able to go to the gtg!”

    Give gary a kiss for me. I’m out of circulation unfortunately.

  214. NJLifer says:

    Patient, got it now. Thanks for the info.

  215. lostinny says:

    216 Patient
    Boooo! We’ll have a drink for you. I could really use one now.

  216. gary says:

    We’ll have a few drinks for you, NJP!

  217. Frank says:

    The word is: DB TO BUY LEH FOR 15

  218. Nom Deplume says:

    [216] NJP,

    Darn, there goes my ride back to Brigadoon.

  219. Rich In NNJ says:

    Paramus FUTURE Comp Killer!

    2624564 Sold
    SLD 339 BULLARD AVE $530,000 10/3/2006

    2727342 Expired
    ACT 339 BULLARD AVE $545,000 7/5/2007
    PCH 339 BULLARD AVE $535,000 9/17/2007
    PCH 339 BULLARD AVE $529,000 9/17/2007
    EXP 339 BULLARD AVE $529,000 10/1/2007
    2823930 Active (subject to bank approval)
    ACT 339 BULLARD AVE $469,000 6/12/2008

  220. njpatient says:

    “Darn, there goes my ride back to Brigadoon.”

    Pity, ’cause I have the Lamborghini that day.

  221. njpatient says:

    Nom, jam, other lawyers in the room – had you heard about Judge Kozinski?
    http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/06/porn_judge.php

  222. Rich In NNJ says:

    Bergenfield FUTURE Comp Killer!

    2705927 Sold
    SLD 42 CARNATION ST $360,000 4/26/2007

    2744754 Expired
    ACT 42 CARNATION ST $389,900 11/6/2007
    EXP 42 CARNATION ST $389,900 5/12/2008
    2819589 Active (subject to bank approval)
    ACT 42 CARNATION ST $389,900 5/12/2008
    PCH 42 CARNATION ST $329,900 6/12/2008

  223. Sybarite says:

    208,209

    Wonder if pret and chifi work at the same establishment…

  224. njpatient says:

    nah – chifi works at home in his pajamas.

  225. Rich In NNJ says:

    Midland Park FUTURE Comp Killer!

    2320040 Sold
    SLD 25 CEDAR ST $333,000 11/1/2003

    2530983 Withdrawn
    ACT 25 CEDAR ST $424,900 9/23/2005
    PCH 25 CEDAR ST $414,900 11/23/2005
    W-U 25 CEDAR ST $414,900 1/20/2006
    2606478 Withdrawn
    ACT 25 CEDAR ST $399,999 2/23/2006
    ACT* 25 CEDAR ST $399,999 2/28/2006
    U/C 25 CEDAR ST $399,999 3/21/2006
    W-T 25 CEDAR ST $399,999 5/30/2006
    2632175 Withdrawn
    ACT 25 CEDAR ST $399,999 8/14/2006
    PCH 25 CEDAR ST $375,000 11/6/2006
    W-T 25 CEDAR ST $375,000 11/30/2006
    2816943 Active (REO)
    ACT 25 CEDAR ST $315,000 4/25/2008
    PCH 25 CEDAR ST $292,500 6/12/2008

  226. Rich In NNJ says:

    I’m out of circulation unfortunately.

    Bummer, I was so looking forward to imbibing with someone who knows what a Sidecar is let alone drinks them.

  227. 3b says:

    #224 Rich From sold to forcelosure in little more than a year.

  228. Stu says:

    About the GTG:

    NJGator and I will be there with junior gator in tow. Anyone looking to dine w/us prior to drinking is welcome to join us. Please don’t buy any drinks for my 3-year old. I found out the hard way that he likes beer and coffee.

    NJgator: Look how Ryan is trying to drink from the beer bottle.

    Stu: Let him try some. He won’t want to touch beer again until he’s in junior high.

    NJgator: Better order him one of his own.

    The Dunkin ice coffee experience was similar. Now when we do the drive thru, one of us has to get a decaf. Found out that day that it doesn’t take much caffeine to keep a two-year old up late.

  229. Rich In NNJ says:

    Palisades Park FUTURE Comp Killer!

    2406103 Sold
    SLD 236 GRAND AVE $365,000 7/27/2004

    2816427 Active
    ACT 236 GRAND AVE $365,000 4/22/2008
    PCH 236 GRAND AVE $344,900 6/12/2008

  230. 3b says:

    #227 Rich Below 2003 price I see.

  231. lostinny says:

    Patient
    I am very disappointed that you and Mrs. Patient can’t make it. I think we should have our own mini NOLA appreciation gtg.

  232. lostinny says:

    Stu
    I’ll be eating but I don’t know when I’m getting there.

  233. Hehehe says:

    I saw a headline re LEH, CFO Fired Due To Surprise Loss, that loss has been on their books and was being hidden for 9 months where exactly was the surprise?

  234. BC Bob says:

    “where exactly was the surprise?”

    he [235],

    When they learned they were playing a double-header.

  235. Nom Deplume says:

    [223]NJP

    “Pity, ’cause I have the Lamborghini that day.”

    That was you? Sorry I showed you the NJ State Bird.

  236. Rich In NNJ says:

    Township of Washington FUTURE Comp Killer!

    2520099
    SLD 299 FERN ST $420,000 10/13/2005

    2538570 Expired
    ACT 299 FERN ST $489,900 11/18/2005
    EXT 299 FERN ST $489,900 2/17/2006
    W-C 299 FERN ST $489,900 4/6/2006
    2616740 Expired
    ACT 299 FERN ST $459,900 5/2/2006
    EXP 299 FERN ST $459,900 8/2/2006
    2813203 Active
    ACT 299 FERN ST $449,000 4/2/2008
    PCH 299 FERN ST $429,000 5/1/2008
    PCH 299 FERN ST $409,000 5/30/2008
    PCH 299 FERN ST $399,000 6/12/2008

  237. RayC says:

    I’ve seen the post a few times with the website for Bergen and Passaic sales. I’ve never found anything comparable for Union County, and now Domania’s search is “broken”. It has been for weeks, did I miss agoing out of business sale there? Anyone know of anything more current than propertyshark, or njdotcombythenumbers?

  238. njpatient says:

    228 Rich

    Well below 2003 in Midland Park!?!
    Sucks to be the neighbors!

  239. kettle1 says:

    sorry foe the OT today….

    But some might find this interesting

    http://tinyurl.com/3wedwm

    While not directly housing related, potential significant sifts in climate will effect housing. most of the current climate models suggest long term drying of the south west and the potential decline of the major urban areas, this is projected to drive a mass migration of people north and east. it also meas that food prices will continue to go upwards as major food producers around the world and locally are going to be hit hard..

    ok apocalypse boy is done for the day and will quit hijacking….. sry grim ;) i just cant help myself

  240. njpatient says:

    231 Stu

    Ha!
    The other day the 17 month old was repeatedly dipping her chopstick into my Margarita and sucking on it.
    I was going to come for an early dinner with the Little Patients, but I forgot we have in-laws flying in from NOLA, and they might think getting whisked off to the GTG was a bit odd.

  241. njpatient says:

    234 lost

    Maybe next summer we can make the Crawfish Festival in NJ.

  242. njpatient says:

    242 kettle

    That was unquestionably RE-related. I’ve often thought about buying some acreage in northern Maine, New Hamster or Vermont for this reason.

  243. chicagofinance says:

    prtraders2000 Says:
    June 12th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
    Anyone have an opinion on Hazlet? I had been hoping for Fair Haven, but maybe this is a more realistic alternative.

    I refer to it as Hazmat….look, it could be worse….I would try Aberdeen/Matawan, Sotuh Amboy….stay as far away from Keansburg as possible….

  244. chicagofinance says:

    njpatient Says:
    June 12th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
    This is WAY TOO FUNNY:

    dude…it’s ducky!!!!!!!!!

  245. BC Bob says:

    “most of the current climate models suggest long term drying of the south west”

    kettle,

    Too bad the present day models can’t dry out the midwest.

  246. lostinny says:

    243 Patient
    You got yourself a deal!

  247. chicagofinance says:

    prtraders2000 Says:

    Please let me be more helpful. Stay away from any area between 36 and water. The areas between 35 & 36 are ugly and crappy, but at least they are safe. Anything on the GSP side of 35 is a better choice.

    One exception is everything south and east of Kings Highway on the East side of 35 in Middletown (going toward Navesink and Locust) is actually quite nice, although kind of isolated.

    As has been stated, 35 is kind of a sinkhole running right down the center of Middletown.

  248. chicagofinance says:

    njpatient Says:
    June 12th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
    nah – chifi works at home in his pajamas.

    njp: works in his pajamas….in the office…out of necessity…. ;-)

  249. lostinny says:

    250 Chifi
    If I had a map I’d have a clue what you were talking about.

  250. njpatient says:

    “dude…it’s ducky!!!!!!!!!”

    If I didn’t know that guy was real I wouldn’t think that guy was real.

  251. BC Bob says:

    “If I didn’t know that guy was real I wouldn’t think that guy was real.”

    patient[254],

    Keep a track on him. When he pukes, it’s time.

  252. #208 – Gary , ahh that makes sense. Your name has shown up on occasion on my browser. It’s most likely a proxy server/cookie mis-match.
    What floor are you on, or are in the JC office?

  253. chicagofinance says:

    This information should be helpful….celebs live south of 12A/north of the Navesink with a sweeping cliffside view of the river and probably a dock at the bottom…

    http://maps.yahoo.com/;_ylc=X3oDMTExNmIycG51BF9TAzI3MTYxNDkEc2VjA2ZwLWJ1dHRvbgRzbGsDbGluaw–

  254. scribe says:

    Are you sure this is the Duck?

    And now we have to live in my mothers basement, and I’m getting sick of that.

    My mother also has to sell her building in brooklyn to help with the payments on this house. Is that fair? No!

  255. Rich In NNJ says:

    I doubt it’s him as I believe he had another “name” at that site.

    I think it’s somone doing a parody of him.

    A damn funny one.

  256. scribe says:

    Rich,

    Is the Duck’s house back on the market?

    And wasn’t he “outed” at one point as being a realtor playing the flip game?

  257. lostinny says:

    Chifi
    I keep getting a map showing the North Shore of SI. I know where I live. :)

  258. chicagofinance says:

    punch in the zip 07701

  259. lostinny says:

    263
    Thanks ChiFi. A former co-worker lives there I believe. She bought a condo in the Highlands and she hasn’t been able to get rid of it. She takes a loss on the rent she gets. I feel bad for her but she wouldn’t listen when I told her not to do that.

  260. Rich In NNJ says:

    Scribe (261),

    Yes, his house is on the market below his ’05 purchase price. He claims it’s a marketing strategy and that he won’t sell for a loss.
    So I guess he’s not selling.

    I don’t recall him being a realtor.

    Purchase 2005 $840,000

    Original List 2006 $998,000

    Latest List 2008 $799,000

  261. lostinny says:

    Rich 265
    It’s actually listed for less then he paid? Did part of it crumble?
    Didn’t he say there was a problem with a retaining wall or something that he didn’t want to fix? Maybe that’s why he’s living in his mother’s basement.

  262. Diane says:

    This past week I drove from LA to NJ. We passed thru an area near Las Vegas (Blue Diamond, I think was the name of the area). For many miles all you can see is one new (huge) development after another; some still under construction although no actual construction was taking place. It looked like a suburban ghost town. Houses, townhouses and condos.

  263. njpatient says:

    Vegas is facked.

  264. Diane says:

    yep. My daughter (who was in school in San Diego) moved back to NJ. She told me about a RE deal being offered for new homes priced in the $1M range. The same developer had condos that were not selling, and the offer was “Buy the house, get a condo free.”

  265. skep-tic says:

    if there is one place I am happy to see get hit hard, it is Vegas. I really think there is a correlation between the rise of Las Vegas in the past 15 yrs or so (along with a wider acceptance of gambling w/o stigma) and the bubbliciousness of our economy

  266. Laughing all the way says:

    I’ve also found it on two separate sets of comparable REO/Non-reo resales in the $325-425 range in Bucks County.

    Pat – do these show up on zillow? I haven’t seen these two that you speak of (then again, im focusing mostly on newtown)

  267. Laughing all the way says:

    Blood/Laughing…if I wasn’t working today, we could hit the courthouse and see what that house over on Colonial [off the Bypass] by you goes for? It’s still active for today.

    ha
    just seeing this now
    we simply can’t buy – lock into a one year rent deal. but we’re targeting a spring 09 buy

    i really dont know about foreclosures, but i just asked our agent about them!

  268. Nom Deplume says:

    [242, 245] Kettle and NJP

    We are definitely on the same page (in fact, with global warming, something in NH could prove to be beachfront someday).

    You will want to speak to me (better yet, my BIL and sister) before jumping into Northern NE though. They have a spread in southern maine that serves as a B&B, horse boarding farm, weekend getaway, and sanctuary location (just in case). They can provide insights on the pitfalls of having such property, which is why my model for a similar project is somewhat different.

  269. Tom says:

    Is there any way short real estate like you can short stocks?

  270. Sybarite says:

    Tom,

    SRS might be what you’re looking for.

  271. scribe says:

    Rich,

    I see it.

    Boy, talk about cr*p furniture!

  272. Pat says:

    Laughing, you mentioned you weren’t seeing the REOs in the “desireable” areas.

    I see them.

    I posted the $75k differential a few weeks ago. It was a colonial versus a Felix Unger split with a pool. The REO, at approximately $100k under ’06, sold in two weeks. It hasn’t closed yet.

  273. Pat says:

    That was the Newtown example.

  274. Pat says:

    I don’t use zillow for foreclosures. I watch the mls, get addresses, compare to the sheriff’s listing weekly [parsed for Newtown, Langhorne and Yardley], then make my own comps based on SQ FT, school and lot size.

  275. Tom says:

    SRS looks interesting thanks for that. I’m going to do more research on it.

  276. Frank says:

    Tom,
    SRS is commercial RE, plus you’re kind of late to the short RE game.

  277. BC Bob says:

    “The same developer had condos that were not selling, and the offer was “Buy the house, get a condo free.”

    I said, about a year ago, that we will eventually see happy hour pricing. Going forward, please take my house, just pay my taxes.

  278. Tom says:

    SRS is commercial RE, plus you’re kind of late to the short RE game.

    I’m pretty sure we still have a ways to go.

  279. Frank says:

    Tom,
    Try this instead.

    ETF Filed To Track Housing Prices (UMM, DMM)

    MacroMarkets LLC has announced that its subsidiary MacroShares Housing Depositor has now filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission for exchange-traded securities that will allow investors to invest in the upward and the inverse movement of U.S. home prices.

    MacroShares Major Metro Housing Up and Down securities will be based on the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10 Home Price Index, which is a a nationally recognized gauge for U.S. home prices. For a representation, it tracks the following cities: Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco, and Washington D.C.

    We would like to note that with this not having any representation in Texas at all that it is not at all a full representation, and we’d even argue that based on city selection those using this index for a comparison are using it to keep the average housing prices higher. regardless of our opinion on the index not being a fully representative representation of the US housing market, it will allow investors to access what MacroShares itself calls “this important, but illiquid, asset class.”

    When these are launched, these paired securities will have a 10-year term and will feature a 2x (200%) leverage factor. MacroMarkets LLC plans to launch the new securities on the NYSE Arca under the ticker symbols:

    * UMM – MacroShares Major Metro Housing Up
    * DMM – MacroShares Major Metro Housing Down

    And who says that ETF’s and ETN’s have ceased being creative?

    http://www.247wallst.com/2008/06/etf-filed-to-tr.html

  280. bruiser says:

    Sorry to hear about the “redevelopment” of the Fairway Golf Center. Me & the girlfriend enjoyed the go-karts, bumper boats, and driving range in addition to the minigolf. Now it will be just another Piscataway condo farm, dubbed a “transit village” to keep the locals dumb & ignorant.

  281. stuw6 says:

    SRS is commercial.

  282. njpatient says:

    273 nom
    “You will want to speak to me (better yet, my BIL and sister) before jumping into Northern NE though. They have a spread in southern maine that serves as a B&B, horse boarding farm, weekend getaway, and sanctuary location (just in case). They can provide insights on the pitfalls of having such property, which is why my model for a similar project is somewhat different”

    I lived in Maine for 5 years, and my brother moved to Midcoast Maine permanently, bought several acres and built his own 3000 sqft place (with his own two hands – I’ll have to ask him if I can send grim some pics for the blog). Maine I’m pretty familiar with.

  283. instigator says:

    grim Says:
    June 12th, 2008 at 6:19 am
    From the NY Times:

    Housing Slump Helps the Draw of Fixer-Upper TV

    Shows that were hallmarks of the bubble — like “Flip That House” (on TLC) and “Flip This House” (on A&E) — are still around, but have been retooled with less-than-happy endings. The TLC episodes are repeated several times each week and still draw an average of 700,000 viewers a showing.

    Maybe they should rename those shows to
    Flop That House
    and
    Flop This House

    Sorry,
    but after how speculators contributed to the the bubble,
    I couldn’t resist! ;)

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