Preliminary May sales and inventory data for Northern New Jersey (GSMLS) is in. Please note that this data is subject to revision.
The first graph plots the unadjusted sales data (closed sales) for the counties listed. Please note the lower bound of the graph, it is set to 500, not to zero. I do this to emphasize the seasonal nature of the Northern NJ market.
(click to enlarge)
The second graph is another view at the sales data for the full year. Please note that this graph does cross at zero.
(click to enlarge)
The third graph displays only May sales, 2000 to 2008 YOY.
(click to enlarge)
The fourth graph displays an overlay of Sales and Inventory from 2003 to 2007.
(click to enlarge)
The fifth graph displays the year over year change in inventory on a month by month basis.
(click to enlarge)
The sixth graph displays the year over year change in sales on a month by month basis.
(click to enlarge)
The last graph displays the absorption rate (not seasonally adjusted), in months:
(click to enlarge)
Bonus Graphs!
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)
Gold Coast Get Together this weekend!
Saturday, June 14th, 2008 at 5pm
The Brass Rail
135 Washington St
Hoboken, NJ 07030
Foist!
Notice the nice divergence in this years sales to previous years. That’s a clear sell signal to me.
From Reuters:
2007 subprime delinquencies up 10 pct in May: S&P
Despite some signs of stabilization in April, the performance of subprime mortgage loans pooled into U.S. asset-backed securities deteriorated in May, according to a Standard & Poor’s report on Thursday.
April remittance reports, which provide a snapshot of subprime loan performance, showed the pace of delinquencies was slowing. But as of the May distribution period, total delinquencies for loans climbed, in particular for 2007 subprime mortgage loans.
Poor underwriting standards on home loans made to borrowers with weak credit histories over recent years led to soaring delinquencies and defaults on the risky loans.
Total delinquencies shot up 10 percent for 2007 loans to 28.4 percent of the total in May, compared with 26.61 percent in April.
Serious delinquencies, such as payments later than 90 days and foreclosures, for the 2007 vintage rose 11 percent. They are 19.2 percent of the current aggregate pool balances.
“The 2007 issuance year continues to be the worst-performing vintage in terms of cumulative losses,” Standard & Poor’s said in a statement.
I’d expect to see some pretty hefty declines this year. When you see the May numbers below April that is clearly not a good sign. Every year since 2002 May sales always increased over April. There will be capitulation this year, as traders say.
The last gasps of a dying market.
Bad stuff….yeech!!!
As of 12:34PM today……the big 4-0…
As of 12:34PM today……the big 4-0…
Aww geez…I just walked down that road.
Have some metamucil and go to bed already.
As of 12:34PM today……the big 4-0…
birthday? happy birthday!!!
newsflash….lots of wealthy people don’t have friends……http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/13/greathomesanddestinations/13guest.html?_r=1&8dpc&oref=slogin
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/13/greathomesanddestinations/13guest.html?_r=1&8dpc&oref=slogin
Welcome to the top 10!
From Bloomberg:
Foreclosures Rise 48% in May as U.S. Bank Repossessions Double
Bank repossessions more than doubled in May and foreclosure filings rose 48 percent from a year earlier as previously foreclosed properties dragged down housing prices, RealtyTrac Inc. said in a report today.
One in every 483 U.S. homeowners lost their houses to foreclosure or received either a default warning or notice that their home would go up for sale at auction, RealtyTrac said. That was the highest rate since the Irvine, California-based company began reporting in January 2005 and the 29th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. Nevada, California and Arizona posted the highest rates in the U.S. and New Jersey entered the Top 10, according to RealtyTrac.
“It’s definitely a different kind of market than what we got used to a couple years ago,” said Devin Reiss, owner of Realty 500 Reiss Corp. in Las Vegas. “We used to sell homes in a day. Now 50 percent of our sales are foreclosures.”
(emphasis added)
From Reuters:
US May foreclosures rise 48 pct on year-RealtyTrac
U.S. home foreclosure filings in May increased from April and were a whopping 48 percent higher than a year earlier, real estate data firm RealtyTrac said on Friday.
Home foreclosure filings in May totaled 261,255, up 7 percent from April, RealtyTrac, an online market of foreclosed properties, said in its U.S. Foreclosure Market Report. The figure is a total of default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions.
“May was the third straight month where we’ve seen a month-to-month increase in foreclosure activity and the 29th straight month we’ve seen a year-over-year increase,” James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, said in a statement.
11:Essex,
I really wonder if the Times has any connection to the first three standard deviations of income and reality when I read stuff like that.
It was like that neo-victorian piece where they tried to say that a large number of 2o-somethings were getting married early and buying townhomes in park slope.
It’s a great time to default on a loan!
From Reuters:
Subprime delinquencies may rise into 2009: NAR
The delinquency rate on U.S. subprime mortgages may continue to rise into next year, the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist said on Thursday.
However, there are signs the subprime crisis may be peaking, Lawrence Yun told a meeting of real estate professionals in Coral Gables, Florida.
“I anticipate the subprime delinquency rate to continue to rise for the rest of the year and probably into the first quarter of next year,” Yun said during a presentation on current market conditions.
The delinquency rate on subprime loans is running around 20 percent.
“I would not be surprised if it reached even closer to 25 percent,” he said after the speech.
From the NY Post:
LOAN SLEAZE SPREADS
Two influential US senators got “VIP” loans from a leading subprime mortgage lender that saved them tens of thousands of dollars, it was reported last night.
The Democratic pols, Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Kent Conrad of North Dakota, both received the highly favorable loans under the designation “Friend of Angelo,” a reference to embattled Countrywide head Angelo Mozilo, Condé Nast Portfolio reported.
Dodd is chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, while Conrad is chairman of the Budget Committee and a member of the Finance Committee. The two senators refinanced properties through the VIP program in 2003 and 2004, the report said.
Others who received “FOA” loans include Alphonso Jackson, the secretary of Housing and Urban Development under President Bush who resigned in April, and Donna Shalala, who was secretary of Health and Human Services in the Clinton administration.
The report came one day after Democratic heavyweight Jim Johnson stepped down as chief of Barack Obama’s vice-presidential search committee after revelations he’d gotten Countrywide loans at very favorable rates because of Mozilo.
14….R…the future of media is here. I often skip the story written by a professional journalist and read the comments. They are usually more insightful and well informed.
16….Meanwhile Dodd is still studying how credit cards companies and banks affect the American Consumer…..good riddance….I hope this sends him on his merry way.
grim (16)-
This is further proof that the only way to rid ourselves of the parasites that are ruining our lives- and lining their pockets while claiming to be “serving” us- is by taking up arms and marching on DC.
When we start executing these corrupt Senators, the graft will stop.
I think the military would either back an armed insurrection…or just stand out of the way.
Vodka, what do you think?
Power to the people.
Happy Friday the Thirteenth Everyone
RealtyTrac foreclosure map:
Foreclosures by State for April, 2008
From BusinessWeek:
The World’s Best Places to Live 2008
No. 1: Zurich, Switzerland
No. 2 (tie): Vienna, Austria
No. 2 (tie): Geneva, Switzerland
No. 4: Vancouver, Canada
No. 5: Auckland, New Zealand
No. 6: Dusseldorf, Germany
No. 7 (tie): Munich, Germany
No. 7 (tie): Frankfurt, Germany
No. 9: Bern, Switzerland
No. 10: Sydney, Australia
(No U.S. Cities in the Top 10)
No. 11: Copenhagen, Denmark
No. 12: Wellington, New Zealand
No. 13: Amsterdam, Netherlands
No. 14: Brussels, Belgium
No. 15: Toronto, Canada
No. 16: Berlin, Germany
No. 17 (tie): Melbourne, Australia
No. 17 (tie): Luxembourg, Luxembourg
No. 19: Ottawa, Canada
No. 20: Stockholm, Sweden
(No U.S. Cities in the Top 20)
From CNN/Money:
73,000 homes lost to foreclosure in May
The housing crisis grew worse in May, as more than 73,000 American families lost their homes to bank repossessions, up a staggering 158% from the 28,548 households that were dispossessed in May 2007.
Foreclosure filings of all kinds, including default notices, notices of sheriff’s sales and bank repossessions, were up 48% from May 2007, according to the latest release from RealtyTrac, the online marketer of foreclosed properties. Filings increased 7% from April.
Dodd is chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, while Conrad is chairman of the Budget Committee and a member of the Finance Committee.
My question as to why the federal gubmint stood by and let this all happen has just been answered…they’re all on the same team of idiots.
a bit off topic but i just returned from my first trip to Dallas. yeesh, that city is still about 10-15 years from being a “real” downtown. i met with a mid size developer that is leading the efforts with a few mid size apartment complexes and mix use commercial space. being invested with rentals he has not been hit too bad with the fall out but mentioned Merrill Lynch backed out on a 9mm commercial loan back in December(went private equity as back up).
i also almost fell off my chair when he told me what the median home price is: $169,000!
Another mall in the Meadowlands? Good thinkin’ Chump, err, Trump.
Trump thinking big with EnCap’s second phase
Donald Trump, spurned by state officials last month regarding the first phase of the EnCap project, still is thinking big with a proposed second phase in North Arlington — and a large mall is among the possible development plans.
…
“The question I’ve been posing to North Arlington is, ‘What type of commercial development will you let us look at?’” Cohen said. “But whatever it is, it needs to be large-scale for Mr. Trump to be interested. That’s the only way that the site can generate enough funds for both the municipality and the developer.”
Chi,
Happy B-Day. All the best.
The World’s Best Places to Live 2008
Where’s PBC and Brigadoon?
SM,
Building still going strong in San Antonio, no real sign of developers cutting back at all. Still plenty of specs available, and even more being built. I was told that San Antonio is recession-proof. Talked to a number of salespeople over in Alamo Ranch, one of the new developments, plans call for more than 12,000 new homes. You read that right, 12,000, and still no lack of space.
OUCH.
“What do you call a hedge fund that has no outside investors? Closed.”
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06/12/citigroups-800-million-misstep/
Grim,
I’m no doctor but I think those charts show the patient is dead!!!
RE: # 24 – World’s Best Places to Live. Explains why I’ve been in Europe the last 30 years. Having a hard time remembering why I want to return to NJ. Looked up 08033 on the foreclosure map. 08033 is one of the wealthiest zips in S.J. Over 1,000 properties in some stage of foreclosure. Stunning.
BC,
Think they are getting wise to our gig?
China `Not Smart’ to Invest in U.S. Bonds, Cheng Says
China’s government, which invests up to a third of its $1.68 trillion in currency reserves in Treasuries, is “not smart” to invest in U.S. debt and should seek higher returns, a former legislator said.
“I don’t think it’s a smart move to invest in U.S. bonds,” said Cheng Siwei, former vice chairman of the National People’s Congress, China’s legislature, at a Beijing conference. “We need smart capitalists to invest ourselves,” instead of lending money to American investors and earning interest, he said.
Explains why I’ve been in Europe the last 30 years.
I own in the EU, rent in the US.
grim,
i believe it in regards to space. i was in Houston as well and was shocked how sprawling it was. two sky lines, downtown and the galleria?!
i was told residential values were down 12% and saw limited commercial development going on. which does not surprise me; it’s an oil town so most of the development has been completed and despite the lack of activity, downtown is well established.
i will say being out there really makes me appreciate east coast city’s even more. car culture is quite pervasive, mass transportation is a joke and most of the “hip and trendy” shopping and cafe areas were littered with vacancies.
If Dodd and Conrad were getting deals from Mozilo I wonder what kind of deals the people at ForeverTan got?
Chart class on Friday morn. It doesn’t get much better than this.
This charade was built on the premise of constantly rising prices. Unfortunately, it turns on a dime, thank you Bob T for recognizing that. Now the same greed/fear that shot this market to the moon, will decimate it. Negative news will be magnified, anything bullish [yeah right] will be ignored. Bad news will get worse, lower sales/prices will beget lower sales/prices. Old man history tells us this. Try betting against him.
Every bull market requires sponsorship. The higher the market goes the sponsorship must increase exponentially. Well, that sponsorship dried up this past August. It will be years for this to come back, in any meaningful manner. This credit crunch will take years to recover. It will be painful.
You can pray for a lifeline, hope for a miracle or dream [nightmare] about a freeze. That’s OK. However, the consumer is hanging upside down on that line and they have slid down the slope of hope. Freeze? Well, Ted Williams is frozen. How’s that working?
Sell? Sell to whom?
ChiFi,
Congrats. I know it won’t make you feel better, but based on today’s life expectancy…you’re half way there ;)
Of course, the way the Mets have been playing lately, you may be closer to the 75% mark.
Willie firing pool anyone?
Grim,
Any explanation as to the drastic drop in inventory from April to May? Besides the 1st downtrend in sales from April to May, nothing stuck out more.
Nice job with the charts. They are my personal favorite part of the blog. Well, that is if you leave out bi’s financial advice.
JB [35],
It was OK when we were greasing them. However, when you are losing 100’s of billions and your exports start to suffer, bells and whistles go off.
Speculative bubble in oil or the world scrambling to bail out of worthless dollars and buy something tangible?
Wonder if gov’t fueling the building in San Antonio. I was in Huntsville, Ala., in April. Same story. Developments going up like crazy. Was told it was due to BRAC, Defense Department moving people from Washington. Jobs, families, and everything else that comes with it projected to give the city 30k new bodies.
That purple line is going the wrong way!!!
10 yr @ 4.25%
2 yr @ 3%
Still pretty crappy yield but up a lot in the past few weeks. This can’t be helping the resets.
Any explanation as to the drastic drop in inventory from April to May? Besides the 1st downtrend in sales from April to May, nothing stuck out more.
Inventory didn’t drop, the pace of inventory growth dropped (second derivative). Year over year, inventory is still increasing, albeit at a much slower pace. This is really the only positive datapoint in this set of graphs.
That purple line is going the wrong way!!!
It will likely be flat to positive once we get the first set of revisions next month.
U.S. ECONOMIC AND CREDIT MARKET
OUTLOOK – Pierre Ellis, New York
Treasuries fell back massively Thursday, in a
flattening configuration with the two-year yield rising twenty-three basis points and the ten-year yield up about fourteen. The proximate cause was a sharply stronger-than-expected retail sales report, but
the impact was exacerbated by growing fears of both inflation and Fed tightening, supply and unwantedinventory concerns, and worries about serious mortgage-related technical pressures.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. May CPI up 0.6% vs. 0.5% expected
U.S. May core CPI up 0.2% as expected
U.S. May CPI energy prices up 4.4%
U.S CPI up 4.2% in past year; core CPI up 2.3%
U.S. May CPI food prices up 0.3%
From Bloomberg:
Consumer Prices in U.S. Rose 0.6% in May as Fuel Costs Soared
U.S. consumer prices rose more than forecast in May as Americans paid more for fuel, underscoring the Federal Reserve’s concern that inflation will pick up.
The consumer price index increased 0.6 percent, the most since November, after a 0.2 percent gain the prior month, the Labor Department said today in Washington. So-called core prices, which exclude food and energy, increased 0.2 percent, as forecast by the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The surge in oil and food expenses has caused traders to bet the central bank will increase interest rates as soon as September following seven reductions in the past nine months. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke this week pledged to “strongly resist” any rise in consumers’ price expectations that would cause inflation to spiral out of control.
“The Fed doesn’t have any good choices at this time,” said Kevin Logan, senior market economist at Dresdner Kleinwort in New York. “The Fed will stay on hold, though the possibility of them responding to inflation has increased.”
“The World’s Best Places to Live 2008”
Since I have been to most of these places, NJ is still the best place to be!!!
The Fed has made a terrible mistake assuming that inflation would moderate as the economy slowed.
There is no inflation. Why the jitters BB?
Who will be the first to pooh pooh that volatile headline number and focus on the fact that core came in at expectations?
“The Fed has made a terrible mistake”
JB [51],
The fed is a mistake.
JB [53],
I did, # 52.
#15 grim:However, there are signs the subprime crisis may be peaking, Lawrence Yun told a meeting of real estate professionals in Coral Gables, Florida.
What are the signs? You tell us there will be increase into 2009, and yet you tell us there are signs that the crisis is epaking. What are the signs?
#19 Clot: I still have my Thompsn.
“there are signs the subprime crisis may be peakin”
3b,
The nasdaq also peaked, in 03/00.
As they say in China when it is Peaking – Duck.
Actually Oil most likely will blow right to 150 and then have an ugly tulip mania type sell-off. Time to pick up an Esclade right now for ten cents on a dollar and sell the Hybrid. This baby is going to pop!!!!
“As they say in China when it is Peaking – Duck.”
John,
Shanghai Index?
From the AP:
Inflation jumps by biggest amount in 6 months
Inflation shot up in May at the fastest pace in six months, pushed higher by soaring costs for gasoline and other types of energy.
The Labor Department reported Friday that consumer prices rose by 0.6 percent last month, the biggest one-month increase since last November, as gasoline costs surged by 5.7 percent. Food prices, which have also been rising sharply, were up 0.3 percent as the cost of beef and bakery products showed big gains.
Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, edged up a more moderate 0.2 percent in May. But even there, core prices are up 2.3 percent over the past 12 months, above the Federal Reserve’s comfort zone.
Rezko is defending his buddy Obama
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/11041.html
BC,
Do you think the Fed might consider correcting for unidirectional volatility in the core measure?
After all, is there really any difference between unidirectional volatility and inflation?
Grim:
Thanks for the explanation, although I understand that the chart tracks a rate of change. What I’m trying to figure out is what was the cause for the drop in the rate of change of the inventory?
It was probably just a monthly blip, but we’ll see in another 30 days.
Powell tells B.C. crowd he might vote for Obama – not on the basis of race
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20080613.BCPOWELL13/TPStory/National
ChiFi – Happy Birthday!
BC Bob – Glad to see you back. I missed your posts.
10year – approaching my 15-year fixed – 4.6%
Gas was $4.19 in my vacation corner of the midwest yesterday. I don’t think we’ve even begun to see what that will do to prices at the grocery store yet.
Lakefront property not moving at all – same places for sale this summer as last, with only a modest decline in asking price.
Happy Friday the 13th everyone.
New York Times:
The Great Seduction
http://tinyurl.com/426do3
“Franklin made it prestigious to embrace certain bourgeois virtues. Now it’s socially acceptable to undermine those virtues. It’s considered normal to play the debt game and imagine that decisions made today will have no consequences for the future.”
bi: Forget the noise and read this…
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/the_budget_according_to_mccain_part_i.html
What I’m trying to figure out is what was the cause for the drop in the rate of change of the inventory?
I feel that the same negative perception of the market that is keeping buyers sidelined is doing the same for sellers.
Anecdotally, I’ve spoken to a number of potential sellers that are waiting for “a rebound” to list, they too know inventory is high and pricing power is weak.
I also believe that there is some level of pent-up supply waiting to hit the market. I think this factor will keep the market depressed longer than we all think. Every time we hear some positive press on the market, a wave of inventory hits. I have a feeling we’re going to see this behavior for quite some time, and will result in a slow and weak recovery, when the recovery does come. This pent-up supply makes it unlikely we’ll see a sharp fall off in inventory or a fast recovery.
#14
“I really wonder if the Times has any connection to the first three standard deviations of income”
the Times is basically the print version of ‘Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous’ at this point. Total joke of a paper
Pent-up supply will be released gradually, since leases on the rentals will expire in staggered clusters, and some sellers will renew leasing in lieu of selling.
Because there is an alternate to selling – renting out (just as there is an alternate to purchasing) – the flip side arbitrage works here, too.
grim [68],
Ok, and with the steady to rising inventory comes the falling prices, too. Correct?
The World’s Best Places to Live 2008
Zurich – Yes
Geneva – Yes
Frankfurt – ????
This imopressed me very much:
Just got a official letter from BoA saying that they are changing the terms on my Pre-Approval letter, starting July 1st.
They are rasing minimum downpayment BY 5%, and in addition since NJ is declining market -another 5%.
So Starting July 1st on BoA Preferred customer program with no closing costs loan, they are requiring minimum of 15% downpayment!!!!
I see 20% down 30 years fixed as the only option on the horison.
CF..beginning after lunch today, you’ll have sudden urges to relate John-type stories, laugh like Grandpa Munster, wear shirts with waving American Flags all over them.
http://www.sheplers.com/mens/knit_shirts/090986.html?SOURCE=BIZRATE_MensAppar&color=19&CS_003=2112251&CS_010=090986
Welcome to the forties. Happy Birthday.
cf #7: How on earth did that happen? I remember when you were bringing me stuff to put into voice response at KL and you were a kid of twentysomething. I don’t even remember how all that worked; it was the worst job of my entire life.
Anyway, happy birthday, you old f@rt!
#16,
I hope all involved do a perp walk. This is truly disgusting. These clowns have no shame.
Pat Says:
June 13th, 2008 at 9:24 am
Pent-up supply will be released gradually, since leases on the rentals will expire in staggered clusters, and some sellers will renew leasing in lieu of selling.
Because there is an alternate to selling – renting out (just as there is an alternate to purchasing) – the flip side arbitrage works here, too.
I just signed a rent on an older home from a builder/contractor – he decided that it is too risky to tear it down now and build expensive home – so he rented it out.
He paid for the house – 325K.
Rent/month – 1500$. he said he had it listed for 2 month at 2500$ – NOBODY called, than at 2000$ – one person called in 2 month – and that persons background did nto checked out.
After he lowered rent to 1500$/month he got ton’s of calls, we were the fastest to apply and give him documentation he needed.
So rents are capped by salaries.
I just do not see how is renting a house at almost 700$/month loss would be “Pent-up supply will be released”…
I suspect since he got it as an investment propwrty his monthly drain is higher as APR he got is probably around 7% – what were mortgage rates like for investment properties last winter?
69…You mean Lifestyles of the Rich and ‘Friendless’….
The Fed has made a terrible mistake”
JB [51],
The fed is a mistake
AMEN.
#24 best places to live?
I lived in Sydney for 3.5 years. It’s beautiful, but its infrastructure is way behind the US.
When I rode in an ambulance it looked just like the ones form CHIPS and Emergency.
The hospitals look like something from the 60’s.
Cost of living is higher then NJ’s.
Also Sydneysiders believe New Zealand is very backwards (like we view Ocean County or other parts of the US)
Al, you have to remember that not all pent-up sellers purchased during the run-up.
Do you think the Fed might consider correcting for unidirectional volatility in the core measure?
After all, is there really any difference between unidirectional volatility and inflation?
There is – unidirectional volatility implies that it might come back, inflation – forever.
So as long as they are not saying inflation – thay are sending a signal to people that they can not DEMAND raises in salary – and thus avoiding PRICE-WAGE Upward Spiral.
It comes at the expense of living standard of people, but current USA quality of life and living standards are simply un-sustainable on a long term basis.
gary,
3 homes that my wife and I seriously considered are back on the market, at significantly lower prices. Gary, I’m not talking “looked at”, I’m talking contract was written up, and I balked.
65 Elston Street, Montclair – Talked about this one before.
We looked at this one back in 2005, I’m a sucker for Craftsman homes, and I like the location in Montclair. This one was listed at $649k when we originally looked at it in the early part of 2005. I was tempted when the price was dropped to $609k, but the property needed a significant amount of work. I didn’t think the price was tremendously out of line based on the $580k 2003 purchase price. This house has since been foreclosed on, and is REO. The current list price is $474,900, 20% under the list price at which I considered the property. I’ve since shifted the bar lower, and will not consider even $475k on this property.
The second house we seriously considered was out in Boonton Twp, I won’t post the address since I’m still very interested in this one. We saw this house as a FSBO, when we were out looking at a number of other homes. Drove by, saw it, and I stopped and called, the owner was home, we took a look. The owner was asking in $729k as a FSBO. I politely declined and thanked him for his time. This was in the early part of 2005 as well.
Today the home is back on the market at $499k, a short sale. Why don’t I jump on the property, at more than 30% off asking? I’ll tell you why, they just recieved their first lis pendens, and are heading for foreclosure. I’m content to sit and wait.
House number three is in Montville, again I won’t share the address because I’m very interested. We looked at this house in early 2007, when it was listed at $599k. It is currently listed at $399k, more than 30% less than the price at which I was interested. Why won’t I jump? They just received their first lis pendens as well.
3 houses that I seriously considered, all back on the market in some state of foreclosure. Current asking prices are sitting at approximately 25-30% off the prices attached when I looked at them, with considerable downside potential on all three.
Pat Says:
June 13th, 2008 at 9:39 am
Al, you have to remember that not all pent-up sellers purchased during the run-up.
In my case I pulled records on the person and the house, just to make sure that mortgage is current and landlord checks out:)
New phenomenon: Credit/background checks on landlord by tenant
Dear Realtors,
Have you seen the data that’s been presented today? This is real data, by the way. I suspect the data presented by your organization, the NAR, the same organization that extorts money from you, is not real data. That’s between you and me. If you have any questions on how to read the graphs and charts, feel free to ask. The countless number of posters here own graduate level degrees and would be happy to assist you in interpreting the data.
Just a second here is Mays U.S. May CPI energy prices up 4.4%
Is it in ONE MONTH????
I hope its YoY… For my own sake…
#86 gary,
The graphs are like colorful pictures, right at their level of comprehension. (Well at least a few may drop thir state of denial)
grim [84],
Sounds solid, thanks for the insight. I’ve grown patient, thanks to everyone here pounding me on the head. :) I’m cautiously optimistic. Of course, I’m one of those people that have to sell in order to buy. I’ll bite down hard and price aggressively when that time comes.
grim Says:
June 13th, 2008 at 7:31 am
From BusinessWeek:
The World’s Best Places to Live 2008
They missed Westfield, NJ
bairen,
LOL! To h*ll with the subtleness! ;)
Selling to buy could be interesting in this market.
Disclaimer: I have a room (that I love) with vintage pine paneling.
Gary,
Why not sell now, rent and then use the difference for a DP?
Obama vs. McCain Tax Plans:
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/UploadedPDF/411693_CandidateTaxPlans.pdf
NEIGHBORS ARE MAD AS HELL ABOUT ABANDONED HOMES
http://www.nypost.com/seven/06122008/realestate/not_fore_us_115103.htm
From MarketWatch:
June UMich consumer sentiment 56.7 vs. 59.8 in May: report
#91 gary,
I’m not too tactful.
Maybe that’s why I married a non native English speaker?
Housing: It’ll get worse.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/09/real_estate/worst_hit_markets_will_get_worse/index.htm?postversion=2008061215
Some experts are predicting 50% peak to trough price drops in bubble cities.
“So Starting July 1st on BoA Preferred customer program with no closing costs loan, they are requiring minimum of 15% down payment!!!!”
Al,
You can still get a mortgage with 15% down? Wow!!!, I figure the banks would be smart enough to require at least 30% down, but I guess it will take more write downs to learn that home prices can go down.
“NEIGHBORS ARE MAD AS HELL ABOUT ABANDONED HOMES”
When Norma Ramirez lived in Mexico, abandoned homes did not bother her, as soon as she showed up to the Bronx, things must be perfect.
clott 19
are you suggesting we practice this sort of politics?
http://blogs.usatoday.com/ondeadline/2008/06/report-zimbabwe.html
on a more practical note, i suggest that we much more civilized, a single billet to the head of any corrupt politician on the steps of the capital building
stu [93],
It’s just too much effort. I’d rather do it in one move.
#228 yesterday Rich,
I looked at that Midland Park Comp killer when it was posted up in the 400s. It was overpriced, but then all Capes in that area were. I think the First lien was for $265 so maybe $240K on a strong LTV and credit score would get a nice deal here.
From Dealbreaker:
Layoffs Watch ’08: Accountants Are People Too
Apparently Deloitte is laying off somewhere between 150 and 200 1st and 2nd years.
From MarketWatch:
Consumer sentiment tumbles in June
Despite receiving rebate checks, consumers are still downbeat as a troubled economy weighs down spirits, according to a report released Friday.
The reading for consumer sentiment in June hit 56.7 — the lowest reading since 1980 — down from 59.8 in May, according to media reports on the reading from the University of Michigan/Reuters. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected a June reading of 59.5.
Consumer sentiment has declined in recent months amid escalating fuel and food costs, and tumbling house prices. The current economic conditions index in June fell to 68.7 from 73.3.
“I had thought that these [rebate] checks might become a factor to boost sentiment from its very weak levels, but apparently not,” wrote Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics. “The consumer is not shifting his/her attitude for a few hundred bucks in one time payments. Consumers are not fooled by money in the mail.”
He added that house prices remain weak, and job losses continue.
“Jobless claims are creeping up. Announced corporate layoffs surged last month,” Brusca wrote. “Energy prices are diverting those rebate dollars to the gas tank and higher food prices are robbing them too.”
RE: DL #24
1,000 foreclosures in 08033? I believe your EU internets are broken, dude. I grew up in 08033 (that’s Haddonfield…) and there are only a handful of lis pendens notices. Those few notices are largely in the sections of Barrington and Haddon Township that share the Haddonfield zip. Take a breath, Euroman.
Economics dudes/dudettes in action….behold…
Thanks to everyone for their warm wishes….
WSJ
OIL SHOCKER
Stung by Soaring Transport Costs,
Factories Bring Jobs Home Again
By TIMOTHY AEPPEL
June 13, 2008; Page A1
The rising cost of shipping everything from industrial-pump parts to lawn-mower batteries to living-room sofas is forcing some manufacturers to bring production back to North America and freeze plans to send even more work overseas.
“My cost of getting a shipping container here from China just keeps going up — and I don’t see any end in sight,” says Claude Hayes, president of the retail heating division at DESA LLC. He says that cost has jumped about 15%, to about $5,300, since January and is set to increase again next month to $5,600.
HOMEWARD BOUND
The privately held company, known for making the heaters that warm football players on the sidelines, recently moved most of its production back to Bowling Green, Ky., from China. Mr. Hayes says the company was lucky to have held onto its manufacturing machinery. “What looked like an albatross a year and a half ago,” he says, “today looks like a pretty good asset.”
The movement of factories to low-cost countries further and further away has been a bittersweet three-decade-long story for the U.S. economy, knocking workers out of good-paying manufacturing jobs even as it drove down the price of goods for consumers. But, after exploding over the past 10 years, that march has been slowing.
The cost of shipping a standard, 40-foot container from Asia to the East Coast has already tripled since 2000 and will double again as oil prices head toward $200 a barrel, says Jeff Rubin, chief economist at CIBC World Markets in Toronto. He estimates transportation costs are now the equivalent of a 9% tariff on goods coming into U.S. ports, compared with the equivalent of only 3% when oil was selling for $20 a barrel in 2000.
“In a world of triple-digit oil prices, distance costs money,” Mr. Rubin wrote in a recent report. He figures that for every 10% increase in the distance of a trip, energy costs rise 4.5%.
Transportation costs are just part of a larger wave of inflation sweeping global manufacturing, which has also been pounded by higher costs for basic materials, such as steel and resins.
The cost of doing business in China in particular has grown steadily as workers there demand higher wages and the government enforces tougher environmental and other controls. China’s currency has also appreciated against the dollar — though not as much as some critics contend it should — increasing the cost of its products in the U.S.
Edward Zaninelli, vice president of trans-Pacific westbound trade at Orient Overseas Container Lines in San Ramon, Calif., a major shipping line, says he’s heard from customers who are moving production back to the U.S., including a maker of steel pans for car engines.
“I believe a decent amount of production could come back into the States within five years, not everything,” he says. “But it won’t be because of transport costs — it’ll be because other production costs have gone up and companies have realized they can have better control over their production when it’s closer to home.”
[edit]
Happy Birthday Chifi! Sorry. My brain is fried.
10 yr @ 4.25%
2 yr @ 3%
Any predictions where this yield is gonna be by year end. Can it go up as fast as oil?
Albani,
Happy Bday.
MM
Congrats Chi, raise a glass to the next 40.
Clotpoll (19)
There is a better way: repeal the 16th amendment and the beast will wither-on-the-vine. Dodd and his ilk (both Republican and Democrat) will finally have to go out and work for a living. Regards.
F*cking comp killer. There’s a house in North Caldwell that just dropped from $679,000 to $575,000 and is still WAY over-priced. The only other info I have is that it’s on White Oak street or lane or road or whatever. I know the word “White” is in the name. lol Who can fish this one out?
I had two realtors from North Caldwell who flat out insulted my wife and I. Good luck, enjoy your vacation in Keansburg this summer.
Happy birthday ChiFi.
My own 4.0 is only a few years away and I honestly don’t know where the hell all the time went. I’m still getting over having turned 30!
Happy B-day C-Finance. Here is a gift for your high yield client, Citi bonds at 9%+ interest set up as Perpetual in order to be in 15% tax bracket.
CITIGROUP INC BONDS 08.40000% 12/31/2049 PERPETUAL ISIN #US172967ER86
Basic Analytics
Price (Ask) 95.250
Yield to Worst (Ask) 9.138%
Many happy returns of the day, chicago.
whats wrong with Keansburg, great schools
“The World’s Best Places to Live 2008
Where’s PBC and Brigadoon?”
Brigadoon’s on that list only once every hundred years.
sort of like garfield and lodi
“I was told that San Antonio is recession-proof.”
Remember the Alamo.
“I’m no doctor but I think those charts show the patient is dead!!!”
The rumours of my death have been greatly exaggerated.
“I own in the EU, rent in the US.”
Funny – China rents in the EU and owns the US.
Congrats on 40.
“Year over year, inventory is still increasing, albeit at a much slower pace. This is really the only positive datapoint in this set of graphs.”
Thank goodness today is worse than yesterday but not as much worse than yesterday as yesterday was than the day before!
“As they say in China when it is Peaking – Duck.”
Heee!
Well played, John.
64 stu
“What I’m trying to figure out is what was the cause for the drop in the rate of change of the inventory?”
Pant-up supply, of course.
68 stu
“bi: Forget the noise and read this…”
Forget the noise?? He IS the noise!
70 skep
“the Times is basically the print version of ‘Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous’ at this point. Total joke of a paper”
Mrs. Patient has been saying the same for awhile now.
We enjoyed the recent “review” of chain restaurants by folks who’d never been in one before and could barely conceal their dripping contempt for the sorts of white-trash ne’er-do-wells who might show up in a Ruby Tuesdays.
Clott #20,
you would prefer the military to stand back and remain neutral in any such event only protecting themselves and their weapons from being used by either side. that would be the ideal situation.
in reality you would see the military break into 2 or 3 factions. hopefully those factions would use enough restraint not to use their “heavy” weapons and cause an escalation of force
77 bairen
unfortunately it falls into the massive category of white-collar crimes that aren’t actually illegal.
Another happy hour.
“It seems the down economy is hurting every business, even the oldest profession. The Moonlight BunnyRanch in Carson City, a legal brothel featured on HBO’s “Cathouse,” is offering the first 100 customers who show up with their stimulus rebate checks twice the “services” for the same price.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25120815
(24) Grim
No. 1: Zurich, Switzerland
No. 2 (tie): Vienna, Austria
No. 2 (tie): Geneva, Switzerland
No. 4: Vancouver, Canada
No. 5: Auckland, New Zealand
Ok place of birth competition. I am at number 5.
Anyone above that?
Winner gets a senator-backed preferential mortgage rate from “Mozilo and friends”
Actually maybe a better competition would be the greatest fall- number 5 to NJ, I might win that one.
84 grim
Couple questions: did you do a title search on houses 2 and 3 in order to know that they just got hit with their first lis pendenses? Is this information that I would get from a realtor as a general matter if I were looking at a house (I assume not)?
Will you tell us if you go under contract, or only when you close? :)
#130 njp
It should be illegal. It’s defintely unethical and a major conflict of interest. Pretty much sums up why we are circling the drain.
Arrogance + Hypocrisy + Corruption = Business as usual in the Capitol.
Where’s the outrage in the media? Instead lets focus on who Jessica Simpson is dating and Tom Brady’s new haircut.
92 essex
I confess I have a bit of fondness for it myself, but Mrs. Patient would kill me.
#16
what a surprise– Dodd takes favors from banks and wants to bail them out too
107 chifi
Excellent!!!!!
My wife and I came across a house we really liked listed as a “UBID” home. Does anybody have any thoughts pro o con about UBIDs?
Thanks in advance!!
113 gary
“I had two realtors from North Caldwell who flat out insulted my wife and I.”
Lotta that going on not so long ago. Never crap on someone you might have to sleep with, or something.
[136] patient,
Was that from your post of yesterday? Admit it, you want that basement room for a man cave!
(Nom de Spouse saw it yesterday, and thought it ugly too! Women just don’t appreciate wood paneling)
But she thought it worthwhile for me to see the house, even if the taxes are ridiculous. So I will see it tomorrow (with a jaundiced eye as the taxes on it are most certainly ridiculous).
131 BC
do they give you a 15 minute break, at least?
chiFi
Happy 4-0. Showing up tomorrow? I’ll buy you a Laphroaig. It will be a whole lot cheaper than my wife’s 40th present.
RE: The insulting incident
Maybe Gary boasted to them that he was:
“THE Gary.”
That would be pretty difficult to keep on the QT, if I was Gary and was trotting along behind the tour guide at an open house.
135 bairen
“Where’s the outrage in the media?” They’ve spent the last two decades telling us that that sort of behavior doesn’t matter. They’d have to admit that who’s having sex with whom is not always the most important political conversation to be having.
The David Broders and Tim Russerts of the world don’t mind rampant lying, cheating, stealing and rank corruption as long as it’s done in gentlemanly fashion by the “right sort of people” who continue to invite them to the right sort of Martha’s Vineyard cocktail parties. So long as you don’t embarrass them, it’s fine.
135 bairen
“Where’s the outrage in the media?” They’ve spent the last two decades telling us that that sort of behavior doesn’t matter. They’d have to admit that who’s having sex with whom is not always the most important political conversation to be having.
The David Broders and Tim Russerts of the world don’t mind rampant lying, cheating, stealing and rank corruption as long as it’s done in gentlemanly fashion by the “right sort of people” who continue to invite them to the right sort of Martha’s Vineyard c*cktail parties. So long as you don’t embarrass them, it’s fine.
141 nom
I admit it.
143 nom
“I’ll buy you a Laphroaig. It will be a whole lot cheaper than my wife’s 40th present.”
I’m having trouble interpreting that in a charitable fashion.
#144 Pat
BOOYAH Bob
When you go to an Open House, do you leave a can Friskies on the signing sheet as a calling card?
147
Two weeks in France this past August.
Laphroaig is cheaper.
BC 131,
I love this part.
The legal bordello plans to have all 100 customers, plus some of the Bunnies, sign a thank you card and send it to President…Bush. Oy.
ah
funny – laphroaig is my choice tipple, and the next time Mrs. Patient gets on my case for overspending on the scotch, I’ll know what to say.
I must have missed Liebermans proposal to limit real estate speculation in order to keep home prices under control. Did anyone else see this one? Wondering why it didn’t pass.
Senator to unveil plan to limit funds’ commodities purchases
Sen. Joe Lieberman, a Connecticut independent, plans to unveil a legislative proposal Wednesday that would prohibit institutional investors from making further investments in commodities once they exceed a certain limit, said a staff member in the senator’s office Friday. The bill will be one of three proposals aimed to curb financial speculation in commodities markets.
#118 njpatient: Brigadoon’s on that list only once every hundred years.
Because its magical, and mystical
“Senator to unveil plan to limit funds’ commodities purchases”
The title of this article should be:
Senator to unveil plan to move all commodities trading jobs from NY and Chicago to Dubai.
make money Says:
It is not too often a brothel gets to send a card to a President named Bush and a Vice President named Dick.
June 13th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
BC 131,
I love this part.
The legal bordello plans to have all 100 customers, plus some of the Bunnies, sign a thank you card and send it to President…Bush. Oy.
#152 – Sometimes I read the news and wonder if the world is largely a practical joke being played at my expense. There is no other explanation…
[156] Tosh,
It’s because they haven’t reprogrammed the matrix.
{155}
What? No thank you card for Spitzer?
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/suffolk/ny-lishore0614,0,1825934.story
cool shoreham nuclear power plant
Why doesn’t he instead submit a bill to limit Bergabe from debasing the $?
tosh
the “kid with a magnifying glass” theory of existence may be right after all…… we are all just ants under some cosmic kids magnifying glass. oh well, enjoy the ride while you are here anyway.
Re: today’s charts
So to extrapolate this to Morris county, I guess my former real-estate agent was a lying piece of s**t when he/she said, “prices are rising in Morris county”. Why am I not surprised?
BTW: got a new real estate agent who argues that all real estate is local and certain towns have yet to see major price declines. However, he/she is willing to place lowball offers for us, even if she disagrees with my pricing strategy stating, “you never know till you try”
Grim (From BusinessWeek
The World’s Best Places to Live 2008):
Betcha a Canadian did the survey. Ottawa?????
Real Estate Triva Question
You guys are always quoting this famous person, what quote is it?
Nathan Rothschild
Morpheus [162],
Meet the new house tour guide, same as the old house tour guide.
gary at #165:
true, but at least willing to work with us. I guess I am an eternal optimist. Plus, he/she is friendly with certain of my relatives, so he/she should have an incentive to further work with us. I hope!
I hope the real estate professionals who haunt this board do not figure out whom I am referring to you.
i recall $250k is a benchmark here:
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9199VUG0&show_article=1
Interesting article about relative living costs vs pay in different cities. NY is always on te bottom
…not that I’m plugging Houston
It has been almost a year since Campbell joined Houston’s Andrews Kurth law firm as a partner and chief diversity officer, and the angst is long gone. She sold her 2,800-sq.-ft. house in Bordentown, N.J., for $350,000 and upgraded to a 4,200-sq.-ft. place on a golf course with five bedrooms and a game room six outside Houston. The price: less than $325,000.
“The bottom line was: ‘How come I didn’t live here already?'” Campbell said. “I came here because of a job. But it’s a wonderful city, and I can see myself retiring here.”
http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/jun2008/bw20080612_882775.htm?chan=search
June 13 (Reuters) – Downey Financial Corp., one of the largest savings and loan holding companies in California, said one seventh of its total assets were non-performing assets with a nine-fold rise in bad loans for May from a year ago, as the weak housing market continued to hurt.
The parent of Downey Savings and Loan Association said its total non-performing assets (NPAs) rose 14.3 percent of total assets of $12.78 billion as of May 31. NPAs were at 1.3 percent of total assets of $15.0 billion in May last year.
The company’s NPAs, which stood at 13.24 percent in April, were steadily rising in the last 12 months and breached the double digit mark in February.
Downey, which originates and invests in loans, mainly residential real estate mortgage loans, investment securities and mortgage-backed securities, has 169 branches in California and five in Arizona.
Many small-sized banks in the United States have suffered due to their exposure to commercial real estate and construction loans, as defaults soared due to a slump in prices amid the worst U.S. housing market downturn since the Great Depression.
Downey shares, which lost more than 90 percent of their value in the last 12 months, closed at $4.93 Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange.
John would this be it???
<i.”I care not what puppet is placed on the throne of England to rule the Empire, …
The man that controls Britain’s money supply controls the British Empire. And I control the money supply.”
Re 167, Obama and his Baby Mama want to tax SS all the way to 250K instead of 102K is insantity. What a moron. Currently, a guy making 204K gets the same ss benefit as a 102K guy, now Obama and his Baby Mama wants the 204k guy to pay double for the same benefit at the 102K guy.
Re 170, close. He coined the phrase don’t buy until there is blood running on the streets.
“Meet the new house tour guide, same as the old house tour guide.”
Gary,
The Who;
Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss
BC Bob,
We won’t get fooled again.
BTW, we’re neighbors here in downtown JC.
Bridgewater officials fight proposed COAH rules
BRIDGEWATER —Township officials are fighting proposed Council on Affordable Housing regulations in the courtroom and in the Legislature, saying the requirements are too steep and taxpayers will have to pick up the tab.
In Bridgewater’s case, it would mean an additional 900 units by 2018, Mayor Patricia Flannery said.
“The land available in Bridgewater wouldn’t permit the numbers with its current zoning,” Flannery said. “They’re forcing this density on us.”
Under current regulations, Bridgewater has about 1,200 affordable housing credits — that’s 300 more than are required, Township Administrator Jim Naples said.
On May 19, the Township Council authorized $10,000 in legal fees to join an 18-town coalition, led by Clinton Township Mayor Nick Corcodilos, fighting the proposed COAH rules, Naples said. The township has also spent $500 to join the League of Municipalities litigation fighting the proposed regulations.
#74
“So Starting July 1st on BoA Preferred customer program with no closing costs loan, they are requiring minimum of 15% downpayment!!!!”
isn’t BofA at this point the biggest player left in mortgages? then this would seem to set the standard for the entire market
“BTW, we’re neighbors here in downtown JC.”
Gary,
I saw you yesterday, ranting/raving on the streets.
to #173 & 174
Doh!
Must be tired, would have picked up the reference to The Who. Guess lack of sleep is taking its toll.
#171 Baby Mama? What, they aren’t married, I missed the part where he took off and left them. But I guess you are entitled to call him a moron. You have the credentials.
#171..Incorrect….tax on incomes over $250k..leaves a “doughnut hole” between $10k and $250k
Powell had better not vote for Obama. I don’t understand how any true republican could vote for a liberal. Powell was always suspect anyway. I remember that bleeding heart speech he gave at the last republican convention. I damn near threw up after listening to that crap. I’ve got no use for people like McClellan, Powell and Chuck Hagel.
bi Says:
June 13th, 2008 at 9:15 am
Powell tells B.C. crowd he might vote for Obama – not on the basis of race
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20080613.BCPOWELL13/TPStory/National
bi:
I guess you ignored my link. Why don’t you take a trip to Iraq and travel around in a U.S. generals uniform in an unarmoured vehicle without any military protection. McCane claimed thats what Betrayus does “all the time”.
Then come back here and tell me you trust a word of what the old coot says.
Gary/Morpheus;
A couple of Who songs which are applicable to this market;
Summertime Blues
I’m Free [if you rent]
McCane’s tax plan is to continue cutting taxes on the wealthy by borrowing against the future of this country. Sounds like a sane plan to me.
But go ahead and vote for him because you don’t like half blacks.
BC Bob,
And two for the realtors:
Who Are You
This Song Is Over
#181 re101
This one’s for you
“Why I am Voting Republican”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FiQJ9Xp0xxU
Warning: contains sarcasm
“I’ve got no use for people like McClellan, Powell and Chuck Hagel.”
REtardInvestor: The world has no use for people like YOU.
#152
as a resident of CT, I apologize for both of our worthless senators
Gary [185],
LOL.
Skep:
What the heck happened to Joe Lieberman? I think he might be borderline schizo?
Stu,
I love how often people parrot the “ministry of truth” i.e cnn/fauxnews; crap of what the situation is like in iraq. There are plenty of soldier blogs and independent news sources that will show you the real picture. Heck anyone who has ever studied any history involving a foreign occupation should know the current news is 100% propaganda.. While i have never been in iraq and do not claim to “know” what it is like it freaking drives me nuts that people parrot what the idiot tube tells them without ever asking questions. Bringing freedom/democracy my rearend! all we have brought them is death and destruction. The counrty was actually safer and more stable under saddam!
we cant even run an effective uncorrupt democratic republic ourselves, how are we going to force anyone else into a stable democracy?
Hey Stu-pid,
You’re the most unpatriotic little wuss I’ve ever seen on this board. You accuse General Petraus of betraying our nation when you know damn well that the surge has worked famously there. You damn liberals don’t want to give any credit anywhere, but don’t have any ideas yourselves. What amazes me is that you seem so young and liberal. It begs the question of what is being taught in our schools and universities. As far as I’m concerned many of our colleges are hotbeds of radicalism.
Stu Says:
June 13th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
“I’ve got no use for people like McClellan, Powell and Chuck Hagel.”
REtardInvestor: The world has no use for people like YOU.
Japan is forcing citizens to have their waistlines measured:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/13/world/asia/13fat.html?no_interstitial
Those exceeding government limits — 33.5 inches for men and 35.4 inches for women, which are identical to thresholds established in 2005 for Japan by the International Diabetes Federation as an easy guideline for identifying health risks — and having a weight-related ailment will be given dieting guidance if after three months they do not lose weight. If necessary, those people will be steered toward further re-education after six more months.
Where’s the weekend open thread?
True Kettle1,
The real challenge today is discerning the truth from the propaganda. The only way to go about doing this is to view an issue from as many perspectives as possible. As much as I rarely trust a story from the NY Post, I will still examine their viewpoint. I doubt REinvestor or bi have ever even perused Obama’s campaign site, although I’ve probably spent twice as much time on McCain’s. Same thing with the oil debate. Is it peak oil? Speculation? Speculation of peak oil? Etc.
BTW, I knew of the speculation of peak oil in the late 90’s. I had a coworker who wouldn’t stop talking about it. I kept saying that when we ran out of whale oil, we discovered petroleum. I used to drive him up a wall!
“June 13 (Bloomberg) — Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s employees lost at least $10 billion as shares of the fourth- largest U.S. securities firm plummeted 74 percent from the high last year.”
“Richard Fuld, Wall Street’s longest-serving chief executive officer, lost $180 million as the credit-market contraction wiped out $30 billion of his firm’s market value. Fuld’s loss was the biggest among insiders, who the New York-based company says own about 30 percent of outstanding shares.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afmAwq5ryKcE&refer=home
RE: A blind patriot is susceptible to walking off a bridge. I prefer to actually open my eyes.
And one last thing RE… you said:
“It begs the question of what is being taught in our schools and universities.”
It has become pretty obvious that you never spent any time at any institutions of higher learning.
192…oh honey settle down. We all pay taxes and have a right to our opinions.
to Reinvestor101 at #192:
Why do you call those who have a different opinion than you “unpatriotic”? Why can’t you just make your point and leave out the personal insults? You are capable of making an argument without insults, are you?
I’m composing a tribute poem.
What word is better: simpleton or nincompoop?
Time to order signs?
http://tinyurl.com/6ne522
202 Pat
Nincompoop is harder to find a rhyme.
Stu,
REtardInvestor: The world has no use for people like YOU.
Everybody serves some purpose. Who else would we unload those POS capes if Reinvestor wasn’t around?
188- Sorry Skep, it’s going to take a lot more than that to forgive CT Joe Lieberman. Looking forward to the Dem senate pickups in the fall that will allow the Democrats to kick him to the curb.
Some insightful commentary on ‘Baby-Mamagate’
http://scalzi.com/whatever/?p=870
Hey you picked up on my FOX related comment. Acually, I don’t know if they are married. It seems that on October 18, 1992, Michelle and Barack’s wedding ceremony was performed by Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. at Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago, Illinois.
Now that is a wacky fly by night religion to begin with but nevertheless it was their religion at the time. Now they have disowned that religion. So are they really married? Kinda of sounds like the equivalent of having Rev Jim from Taxi high on LSD marrying them.
I work with a guy who married an italian catholic girl but wanted to do it on the beach in a destination wedding. They picked someone out of the local pennysaver from some kooky religion and gave him $50, I doubt that girls dad was thrilled. Even more interesting Michelle had a religion and marriage should be in the womens religion. Why did Obama have it in his kooky religion, is it sort of a Tom Cruise type thing where he had all his catholic ex-wife’s marry him in his kooky religion? Who knows.
Now that is a wacky fly by night religion to begin with but nevertheless
Christianity? Gotta agree here, nothin’ but a fad.
So are they really married?
I don’t know, what does the marriage lic. say?
well, if we are going to ave a marriage debate, ten why is the state involved in marriage in any way shape or form??? The state cannot tell a couple that they may not marry based on their skin color, but can deny marriage to a couple based on their secsual preference?
(channeling gary today)
#210 – No argument from me. This is a private contract between two (or more if they all agree) individuals, the state has no business in it.
#208 Strawman
“Hey you picked up on my FOX related comment.”
Should that read “Hey you picked up on my FOX related endorsement.”
“well, if we are going to ave a marriage debate”
And here we go again. Have a great weekend to all.
Have a happy father’s day ya ‘all. And if you get a few free moments this weekend, google “Carol McCain”
John,
UCC is an umbrella organization for several american protestant denominations, including congregationalists, a protestant demonination that first arrived on these shores with the Pilgrims and Puritans in Massachusetts. Most of the smaller “ethnic” denominations joined UCC after its creation.
Typically, it is a liberal church (though congregations do vary as reflected in its makeup of liberal churches like Trinity and the more conservative congregational churches in New England or Pennsylvania) and one of the original demoninations to permit congregations to adopt “open and affirming” designation (open to gay and lesbian members).
And I was married in a UCC church in Massachusetts, so does that mean I am not married?
#139 DINJ
UBIDLOWBALL?
168 Re: Houston
‘How come I didn’t live here already?’”
Because it’s 110 degrees?
Oh, to live in unmanaged urban sprawl! I always wanted to open a tire burning plant in the middle of a city, and Houston’s my best bet.
197 stu
“I doubt REinvestor or bi have ever even perused Obama’s campaign site, although I’ve probably spent twice as much time on McCain’s.”
did you buy the golf balls?
If you go to Lieberman’s site you can get the matching ballwasher.
I see my favorite flower is in bloom today. We’ve missed you, reinvestor, you lovely pansy, you.
john – does it confuse you when the kids today do their terrorist fist jab? What does it all mean?!?!?!?
My Uncle performed my wedding ceremony. He is a judge though. He once owned racehorses, so I believe I should have published our vows in the Racing Form.
So Barack is in trouble if he was never officially married? That explains why McCain and Rudy took the pre-emptive strike of getting multiple marriages. One of them has to be real.
And Dubya, he could have been married 5 times over in Vegas in the 70s, but he would have absolutely no recollection of it.
sry, BC
should i stick to oil and how the world is coming to and end? ;)
kidding
Tim Russert dead at 58
r.kelly ,,, not guilty
224
I’ll bet some people are pissed.
“One of them has to be real.”
I’d go with McCain’s first and Rudy’s second. McCain’s second and Rudy’s third are really just business arrangements, and rudy’s first was to his cousin, so that can’t possibly count.
Which one is bigger news?
NJP,
the wood paneling is in A/R, so I guess I won’t be sizing up the man cave.
224#, chicago is the most corrupted place. but obama is also from chicago. that cannot be real.
223#, tim russert is the only guy in nbc can ask his fellow democrats tough questions.
oh why oh why do I stoop,
to arguing with a nincampoop
Rudy Gulianni is currently married to Donna Hanover in the eyes of God. He got his first marriage annuled to marry Donna in the catholic church. But never got that marriage annuled when he civilly married Judith.
“Which one is bigger news?”
On NBC?
Ah, well, nom – no Brigadoon GTG, then.
“russert is the only guy in nbc”
bi, I don’t know how to break this to you, but he’s not actually IN your teevee.
Also, I wish you wouldn’t ruin the good name of Republicans by being one.
gary (86)-
What makes you think Realtors- other than kl and me- look at this blog?
232 In the eyes of God? So its true, Catholicism is the one true religion. I never should have lapsed.
And annulments are VERY hard to come by. The Kennedys have a Pez dispenser full of them.
NJGator Says:
June 13th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
“Tim Russert dead at 58”
Holy cr@p. I had to google it to believe it. His father is still alive.
Shame for his family. Seems they just got back from a family vacation so at least they got some quality time with him, not that that helps of course.
vodka (101)-
Don’t mess with Mugabe.
John McCain divorced his wife and married his mistress. However, his first wife was divorced at the time of his first marriage. I have no clue who did their marriages.
Actually, Barrack was asked once to produce a marriage certificate and he refused.
McCains Baby Mamma has more bling then Barrack’s Baby Mama but Barrack’s baby Mama for being over 40 ain’t got much junk in the trunk so kudos for that.
dan (112)-
It’s easier to shoot Senators than repeal amendments.
Call me lazy…
gary (113)-
“I had two realtors from North Caldwell who flat out insulted my wife and I.”
Somehow, I’m thinking those insults were met with a quick and vigorous riposte.
Re 237 – Smart Man – Actually, The Catholics are the OGs of christiianity, but I give props to Methodist, Luthern, Episcipaleans etc. But those Obama type religions that are just made up store front religions where the minster makes you give him 10% and he lives in a mansion are the ones I like to diss, when it comes to religion I like it old school.
Cool thing about the Pope is that he is the MAN!!! My favorite is infalibility. A statement that is so infaliblie it can’t be argued. The Pope gets all the 411 from JC.
John – small bottle, little white pills. I think you forgot to take them again. You’re rambling.
Jesus told the Apostle Peter (First Pope) “you are the rock I will build my church, and the powers of death shall not prevail against it. I will give you the keys of the kingdom of heaven, and whatever you bind on earth shall be bound in heaven, and whatever you loose on earth shall be loosed in heaven.”
I though JC was pretty clear, but the Jehova’s, Mormans and every movie theater church came up with their own thing.
I find it sad that I could grab a guy off the street at random that has higher morals then my choice for president. Even sader, I get to vote for an adulter or risk getting my taxes jacked sky high. Nice choice.
“My Uncle performed my wedding ceremony. He is a judge though. He once owned racehorses, so I believe I should have published our vows in the Racing Form.
I don’t think your wife would have been to happy if at the end of the ceremony there was a big ruckus from the people that bet on, Groom Loses Lunch, Runaway Bride and Passed-Out Usher ripped up their slips while the ones that bet on Happily Ever After were too busy collecting their winnings to throw rice.
lost (204)-
nincompoop…rhymes with:
stoop
dupe
croup
loop
bloop
sloop
goop
close rhymes:
newt
glue
bi (230)-
“tim russert is the only guy in nbc can ask his fellow democrats tough questions.”
No more questions forthcoming.
John
Are you drunk, or just typing on a very very small keyboard?
“and whatever you loose on earth shall be loosed in heaven.”
250-njp-
am betting on drunk.
John
“But those Obama type religions that are just made up store front religions where the minster makes you give him 10% and he lives in a mansion are the ones I like to diss, when it comes to religion I like it old school.”
You may like it, but you don’t know anything about it. That 10% bit? That’s as old school as it gets. Better re-start your catechism.
patient (250)-
Could be both. I’m waiting for him to reference Samuel L. Jackson’s “vengeance is mine” speech from Pulp Fiction.
Clot
Likely. But I don’t think he’s trying very hard to be the shepherd.
He’s probably Zed.
252 njpatient
You beat me to it. There is nothing new about clergy living large off their “brethren”. Its kind of “Organized Religion 101”.
Hey I am done ranting, have fun at Brass Rail, I have my daughters dance recital Saturday so I can’t make it.
254 njpatient
Zed’s dead baby.
Clot, you forgot the ones I used in my poem:
Alley-oop
Rabbit coop
Chicken soup
Guadalupe (no emphasis on the e)
“john – does it confuse you when the kids today do their terrorist fist jab? What does it all mean?!?!?!?”
made me guffaw
What is expert opinion on this new things from Banks called Reward checking
http://bankdeals.blogspot.com/2008/05/501-reward-checking-account-at-new.html
Class-action suit filed against IndyMac
The suit alleges that Pasadena-based IndyMac “issued materially false and misleading statements regarding the company’s business and financial results,” specifically citing that the company downplayed its “growing exposure to non-performing assets, particularly loans in its pay-option adjustable-rate mortgage (“Option ARM”) and homebuilder construction portfolios.”
Option ARMS…the Next Subprime?
Can’t we all just get along?:
http://apnews.excite.com/article/20080611/D9182OA80.html
[239] soosh,
I was wondering about his father and we were discussing that at work. That is so sad, to have been lionized by his son only to survive him. I cannot imagine his pain, and this just before Fathers’s Day.
Needless to say, it wakes me up to what is important. It will make my call on Sunday that much more meaningful, especially if the little nom decides to speak to her Papa.
Probably won’t post again tonight, so to all you fellow Dads, Happy Father’s Day.
256…..ha! me too….dance recital that is.
258 Pat
Fruit Loop?
73,000 homes lost to foreclosure in May
Commentary: McMahon shouldn’t be the face of foreclosure
Bank One tax shelters by Bernardine Dohrn, Michelle Obama to extort judges and witnesses.
do your research!
SAS
Those protesters at the bilderberg group in Chantilly, VA did a hell of job…
SAS
Glenn Beck is right, for once, but I’m not sure why he needed to cite Stalin for the proposition.
Vornado retail space on 51st and 6th across from Radio City STILL sitting empty.
This is why I believe in happy gas at school and at work.
Clot- Simpleton
done, fun, hon, one, pun, run, shun, son, spun, stun, sun, yun
air gun, bank run, begun, bull run, dry run, end run, fast one, fowl run, gas gun, homerun, long run, loved one, make fun, mcfun, outdone, outrun, poke fun, redone, rerun, set gun, spray gun, spring gun, undone, zip gun
I could go on or you could look at this:
http://www.rhymezone.com/r/rhyme.cgi?Word=ton&typeofrhyme=perfect&org1=syl&org2=l
lost (274)-
Har! I just stopped at “yun” (as in, Lawrence).
I went through a “happy gas” phase, too. Except mine came out of a nitrous oxide tank. :)
Whippets; such an innocent good time that you can pick up at your local grocery store…
lost…that’s cheating!
Well, as long as we’re using tools in lieu of brain cells, I did come across this little cutie, based on post 195:
Do the last guy, speed medium, sf high.
Then think of either the word nincompoop or reinvestor.
http://www.sillywalksgenerator.com/
Pat (277)-
Please stop. You’re about to incite a Haiku war.
Holy shit. Just turned on CNBC to laugh at Cramer, and here’s a plug for Donny Deutsch’s idiotic show tonight, in which he will rebroadcast a “very special” Father’s Day interview with Tim Russert.
Can somebody here go over and blow up CNBC?
277 Pat
I have absolutely zero brain cells left. I cheated. I don’t care. Now all I need is alcohol. Oh but I should probably wait until tomorrow.
Actually, who is going to the gtg?
Unfortunately I can’t make the GTG. It’s wedding season. Or in this case, a party to mark a civil ceremony that I’ve been referring to as the non-wedding.
Have a good time everyone!
Can we have a gtg roll call then?
We’ll miss you JMac & Mrs. JMac too.
Pat – Just went to the sheriff’s site and there’s actually one mildly attractive sale in Newtown.
Zillow had it at 800k, and there’s only, if i read it right, 230k left on the mortgage.
You seen this house? It’s way too big for us, but if you can get 3800 sq feet on the cheap …
since you’re experienced in the area, what’s your take on the RE environment here? I sadly dont see prices falling like they are in NJ.
# Clotpoll Says:
June 13th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
Holy shit. Just turned on CNBC to laugh at Cramer, and here’s a plug for Donny Deutsch’s idiotic show tonight, in which he will rebroadcast a “very special” Father’s Day interview with Tim Russert
Can somebody here go over and blow up CNBC?
May be it haas something to do with the fact THAT Tim Russert is DEAD??
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25145431/
“European banks have a $400bn hole on their balance sheets in spite of a record-breaking week in fund-raising from rights issues.”
“This is a 20 per cent increase from the end of last year, raising a big question mark over the health of the banks and suggesting the credit crisis is deepening, according to Citigroup.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bc695920-3966-11dd-90d7-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
Al (286)-
Uh, I knew he died today. I just thought his own network would wait until he hit rigor mortis before trading on his memory.
The fact that a guy who was a serious news person is having his legacy pimped by a huckster and arriviste like Donny Deutsch is appalling.
These networks have the dignity of vipers.
BC (287)-
400bn here and there starts to add up to serious money.
Clot [289],
Funny, the European banks didn’t come close to generating the profits of our IB’s during this fabricated run . HMMM? A hole or a crater?
280 clot
By tomorrow he will be a saint rather than a pompous blowhard
patient (291)-
This is gonna be worse than a dead Kennedy.
Speaking of Dead Kennedys:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R11x32WoxrM
ChiFi-
Sorry to be wishing you a belated Happy 40! Hey, 40 is the new 17.
Remember: you’re as old as you look.
Stu Says:
June 13th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
And one last thing RE… you said:
“It begs the question of what is being taught in our schools and universities.”
It has become pretty obvious that you never spent any time at any institutions of higher learning.
Apparently, they didn’t teach your young azz some damn manners in college. Son, let me tell you something, I’m not going to allow you to say whatever the hell you want to me without consequences.
Tell you what, bring your young azz to the gtg tomorrow and we’ll get this shlt straightened out right quick. I’ve got a lot of people to deal with, but you’re first.
Laughing, I don’t look at anything over $400k in Yardley/Newtown/Langhorne. I didn’t see the listing you mentioned.
I’m stubborn on my 1999 pricing philosophy.
You might want to check the file for the lienholders over in Doylestown. You can go look at the certified mail notices to lienholders to see who got their notices and who signed received. It won’t always have all of them. You might miss a couple of IRS or collections bills, but you’ll see who has the outstanding missing $300k.
Hey, re, how’s tricks?
Hey, re, how’s tricks?
Are you seriously going to be there?
Oh man – if repossessed101 is there I’ll really kick myself for missing the gtg. Hey, regurgitate101, I’d be happy to meet you at any bar in midtown next week – I’ll buy you a drink!
lost,
I plan to be there tomorrow too. Hope to see you there!
Wish John could have made it.
RE101,
Tell you what, bring your young azz to the gtg tomorrow and we’ll get this shlt straightened out right quick. I’ve got a lot of people to deal with, but you’re first.
Are you going to be there or this statement just like all your comments, bluster?
Best and Worst Cities for Your Job
NYC in bottom in almost all job careers.
RE101 Will be there, great. This is going to be an experience.
Leaving for work in 20 minutes, driving down right after. No internet at work.
How will those of us who have never been there before know where you all are? Upstairs? Will there be a sign? Should we ask for “friends of Grim?”
Tard won’t be there. Netflix just sent him his director’s cut DVD of “Triumph of the Will”.
I bet he has a big Saturday PM on tap:
– Little House on the Prairie reruns
– Flip this House
– A light sampling from Thus Spacht Zarathustra
– Leni Riefenstahl’s timeless and inspirational classic (remember, she wasn’t really a N@zi)
Pat (301)-
Take a Taser, just in case.
307 Clot
I truly wish you were going to go. But you know, that lineup has unfortunately beaten some of my Saturday nights.
From The Record
Foreclosure rate up in county and statewide
The foreclosure rate jumped in Bergen County and across the state in May, RealtyTrac reported Thursday.
One in every 685 properties in Bergen County and one in every 467 in New Jersey was in some stage of the foreclosure process in May. In Passaic County, the foreclosure rate was down slightly from May 2007, but the county’s rate remains one of the highest in the state, with one in every 259 properties in foreclosure.
New Jersey’s foreclosure rate is slightly higher than the national rate, which is one in every 483 properties — the highest level since RealtyTrac began issuing monthly reports in January 2005. The national rate is up 48 percent from a year ago.
The Garden State’s foreclosure picture is much less grim than in the devastated real estate markets of California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada.
May was the 29th straight month that foreclosure activity nationwide has risen year-over-year, said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. There are now more than 700,000 bank-owned properties in RealtyTrac’s database, he said.
Mr&Mrs Serenity Now RSVPing a
“cannot attend” this evening’s GTG.
Ironically we are moving into our
new home this weekend.
Would like to thank this board
for the tremendous insight on the
market for selling our home and purchasing
our next home. We feel we navigated
this process successfully on both ends
having the advantage of “cutting edge”
knowledge provided by some very bright
people here. Thank you Grim for assembling
such an awesome blog!!
See you at next GTG.
Worst over for U.S. if financial crisis ends: Greenspan
Credit Crunch Effects to be Felt for Years: BlackRock’s Fink
“The worst of the financial market crisis is behind us, but there’s more to come,” Fink was quoted as saying. “The economic problems associated with the turmoil have quarters to go, maybe years to go, because of the contraction of credit, the bloated balance sheets and the inability of banks to loan and restimulate the economy.”
At least one MBS analyst shrugged off the suggestion, in speaking with Housing Wire.
“What are the GSEs supposed to do? Raise capital so they can buy up bad debt, which will put them in the position of needing more capital?” said the analyst, who asked that his name not be identified in this story.
That’s the view of Peter Acciavatti, at least, a credit analyst and managing director at JP Morgan Securities Inc. In an interview with Reuters on Wednesday, he suggested that actual losses of roughly $325 billion thus far may translate downstream into $3.9 trillion in losses tied to tighter credit conditions.
Acciavatti also expected that home prices may fall as much as 30 percent from their peak in 2006, without bottoming out until sometime in 2010.
Abolition of RCAs —
Saturday, June 14, 2008
BY THE REV. JAVIER A. DIAZ, MARTIN JOHNSON AND THE REV. CHARLES J. STEPHENS
On Monday, the New Jersey Assembly plans to vote on a package of historic hous ing measures for our state. Within the next few days, the Senate will follow suit. A key element of the legislation, the Omnibus Housing Bill A500, is the elimination of regional contribution agreements (RCAs).
For more than 20 years, RCAs have allowed wealthy towns to shirk their obligation to provide a fair share of affordable housing within their borders. Time and time again, the fastest-growing, job-rich towns have sent their affordable housing to our cities, most with high poverty, poor schools and few jobs.
from above article
Yet some people continue to fight, trying to preserve the status quo.
Last week, Cranbury’s town administrator testified that banning RCAs would ruin the character of that community, and that, after its 30-year building boom, it simply has no room left for housing.
Cranbury, an RCA sender, is an example of why RCAs should be banned. Cranbury today has one of the highest median incomes, lowest minority populations and most expensive housing in the state of New Jersey. Only 2.6 percent of its elementary students are low-in come, while just one Turnpike exit away, Trenton schools are nearly 65 percent poor.
From 1980 to 2006, 775 homes were built and well over 7,000 jobs created in Cranbury. At roughly the same time (1980 to 2005), only 76 affordable units were built, and seven demolished. Cranbury shipped 110 affordable housing units out of town via RCAs. Obvi ously, very few of Cranbury’s new workers are able to live in the town.
When growing towns refuse to accept their fair share, it’s the more diverse and built-out communities such as Hamilton, Ewing and Edison that bear the brunt. Hamilton now has 20 percent low-income students (2,469 kids), a number that is growing every year, while its jobs and tax base stay flat.
New Jersey’s foreclosure rate is slightly higher than the national rate
New Jersey’s foreclosure rate is slightly higher than the national rate
New Jersey’s foreclosure rate is slightly higher than the national rate
Greenspan is an idiot
New Jersey’s foreclosure rate is slightly higher than the national rate
New Jersey’s foreclosure rate is slightly higher than the national rate
Hope you all have fun at the gtg.
We’re navigating MD. Observation: people wave here. And little kids playing on the sidewalk wave and shake their tails like puppies. It’s freaking me out.
Say, “Hi!” to re for me, and be nice.
You know, sometimes you really don’t know who you are dating and what motivates them. But you can check them out if you want for free. It’s not hard to Google someone or whatever and see what they have been up to. Most of the time, it’s nothing, but it’s that once in a thousand change that there is. And if there is, wouldn’t you like to know? Me too :)