May Existing Home Sales

From MarketWatch:

Existing-home sales rise 2% in May

U.S. home and condo resales inched higher in May as prices continued to fall, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday.

Resales of U.S. houses and condos rose 2% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.99 million in May from 4.89 million in April. It’s the highest sales pace since February.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected sales to rise to 5 million.

Resales have sunk 15.9% in the past year and are down 31% from the peak in 2005. The pace of sales has been relatively stable since August at around a 5 million annual pace.

Inventories of unsold homes on the market fell 1.4% to 4.49 million, a 10.8-month supply at the May sales pace. The inventory figures are not seasonally adjusted. Inventories are up 2.4% in the past year.

The median sales price in May was $208,600, down 6.3% compared with a year ago.

“It’d be premature to say the improvement marks a turnaround,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the real estate group, which continues to advocate for congressional action to boost home buying, including a first-time buyer tax credit and higher loan limits for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

From Bloomberg:

Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Rose to 4.99 Million Rate in May

Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. rose in May from a record low, signaling depressed prices lured some buyers into the market.

Resales increased 2 percent to a 4.99 million annual rate, higher than forecast, from a 4.89 million pace in April, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median price dropped 6.3 percent from May last year.

A drop in property values may have spurred demand in some of the most distressed areas, such as California and the Midwest. Even so, rising mortgage rates, a glut of unsold homes, and stricter borrowing rules indicate the real estate recession will persist for most of the year.

“There’s going to be a little more adjustment until we can say the worst is over,” Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, said before the report. “If you don’t have the confidence of a job and banks are reluctant to lend money,” housing will stay weak.

Economists forecast home resales would rise to a 4.95 million pace, according to the median of 72 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 4.75 million to 5.15 million.

April’s matched a record low for existing home sales.

Compared with a year earlier, sales were down 16 percent in May.

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509 Responses to May Existing Home Sales

  1. willwork4beer says:


  2. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Bank of Congress
    June 26, 2008; Page A14

    “Hopefully, there will soon be no more Countrywide,” declared Barney Frank (D., Mass.) last week. Calling Countrywide “unusually sleazy,” the House author of Congress’s $300 billion housing bailout added: “Having Bank of America buy up Countrywide is a good thing for America.” Yesterday, Countrywide shareholders seconded that by approving the transaction.

    Mr. Frank may be right about Bank of America’s better management, but there’s no doubt his legislation is very good for both Countrywide and BofA. Thanks to this bailout that is now on the Senate floor, taxpayers could end up on the hook for more than $25 billion in loans originated by Countrywide. We also know the race is on to see how many of these mortgage contracts will receive taxpayer refinancing before the law catches up with them. Yesterday, Attorneys General in Illinois and California sued Countrywide and CEO Angelo Mozilo for deceptive trade practices.

    Suspicious Activity Reports filed with the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network show that mortgage fraud skyrocketed during the housing boom. What will take time is digging into individual mortgage contracts to uncover the extent of such fraud. But with an election in five months, Congress is determined to bail out irresponsible lenders and borrowers right away.

    After making its loans, Countrywide sometimes held on to them but most often it sold them to others who packaged them into mortgage-backed securities (MBSs). And that’s also why Bank of America has so much at stake in the housing bailout. According to a recent JP Morgan report, Bank of America holds more MBSs than any other bank, and its $182 billion in MBSs is more than twice as much as second-place Wachovia. So yesterday’s Washington Post report that BofA helped to craft the bailout comes as no surprise. What is surprising is how many Senators still think this bailout is smart politics.

  3. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Citigroup May Write Down $8.9 Billion, Goldman Says

    Citigroup Inc., the bank that’s posted the biggest losses from the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market, may take an additional $8.9 billion in net writedowns in the second quarter, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.

    “The turnaround in business trends that we had been expecting in the second half of 2008 may not occur as quickly as we should have thought,” Goldman said. “We see multiple headwinds for Citigroup,” such as risks of further writedowns, higher consumer provisions, and the potential need for additional capital raisings, dividend cuts or asset sales, Goldman said.

  4. grim says:

    Not locally applicable, but further evidence of commercial loans impacting regional banks.

    Fifth Third halts loans for commercial property

    As one of Toledo’s largest investors in commercial real estate, with millions of dollars in retail and office properties, Harvey Tolson has been a loyal customer to Fifth Third Bank.

    But when he approached bankers there this week about the possibility of financing a new venture, he was turned down flat.

    “They told me they aren’t making commercial real estate loans at this time,” Mr. Tolson recalled.

    The Cincinnati-headquartered bank, which competitors say provides up to $100 million annually in financing for apartments, offices, and other projects in the Toledo area, has stopped, at least temporarily, making most loans for the construction and purchase of commercial properties.

    As part of an effort to contain problems with bad loans, Fifth Third “suspended all new developer and non-owner-occupied commercial property lending,” top corporate executives told investors in a presentation last week. A copy of the presentation was filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

  5. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Commercial-Mortgage Bond Sales May Reach 12-Year Low

    Sales of bonds backed by commercial real estate loans may fall to the lowest level since at least 1996 as investor demand for the debt slumps.

    Commercial-mortgage backed securities offerings dropped to $12.2 billion in the first half of the year, from about $137 billion in the same period of 2007, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Analysts at the firm, Moody’s Investors Service and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc cut their forecasts. JPMorgan predicts sales will fall to $20 billion this year from the record $237 billion in 2007 and the lowest since 1996.

    The decline shows the Federal Reserve’s seven interest-rate cuts since September had limited success in reviving the market for securities derived from real estate assets after the collapse of subprime mortgage-related bonds. Banks and financial firms, reeling from $400 billion in writedowns and credit losses, are also less willing to make new loans.

  6. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Countrywide’s Pressures Mount
    Three States File Legal Actions; Holders Clear Sale
    June 26, 2008; Page A3

    The legal and financial pressures on Countrywide Financial Corp. mounted Wednesday as officials in three states filed separate legal actions against the mortgage lender.

    The actions, by the attorneys general of California and Illinois, and the Washington State Department of Financial Institutions, came on the same day that Countrywide shareholders voted to approve the sale of the company to Bank of America Corp. The all-stock transaction was valued at $4 billion when Bank of America agreed to buy Countrywide in January. But Bank of America shares have since slipped, and the value has fallen to about $2.8 billion. The transaction is scheduled to close on July 1.

    Litigation against Countrywide continues to pile up. In addition to the state cases, Countrywide and its top executives are under investigation by several federal agencies, including the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Securities and Exchange Commission, and are the subject of numerous lawsuits from employees, shareholders and borrowers.

  7. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Lennar narrows loss, expects market to deteriorate further

    Miami-based builder Lennar said its second quarter to May 31 loss narrowed to $120.9 million, or 76 cents a share, from $244.2 million, or $1.55 a share. Revenue fell 61% to $1.13 billion. The company said its loss includes a 60 cents a share charge on valuation adjustments and write-offs of option deposits. The value of its backlog is down 56% to $1.3 billion. The remainder of 2008 will likely see further deterioration in overall market conditions, it added. Analysts polled by FactSet Research expected a loss of 56 cents a share.

  8. grim says:

    Also from MW:

    Lennar Q2 new orders down 45%, deliveries down 60%

  9. bairen says:


    “What is surprising is how many Senators still think this bailout is smart politics.”

    There are 3 main types of fools. Idiots, morons, and Congressmen.

  10. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Housing Bill Delayed in Senate Over Energy Tax Cut Dispute

    Passage of a bill that may reduce the number of housing foreclosures will probably be delayed in the U.S. Senate until next month after lawmakers were unable to resolve a dispute over whether to add energy tax breaks to the legislation, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said.

    The measure stalled yesterday after Republican Senator John Ensign of Nevada demanded a vote on his amendment to provide almost $7 billion in renewable energy tax cuts. Under Senate rules, Democrats need the agreement of all 100 senators to wrap up work this week on the housing bill.

    “In an election year, very few things are actually going to make it into law,” Ensign said. “So if you actually want to get something done, you need to be on that train that is basically going to be leaving the station. This housing bill has a great chance of being signed into law.”

    The legislation includes a temporary program to offer insurance to struggling homeowners, a new regulator for mortgage buyers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and funding for foreclosure counseling.

    Reid, a Nevada Democrat, said yesterday that the Senate would take up the measure after a weeklong recess for the July 4 holiday.

  11. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Not clear why food, fuel costs spiked: Fed’s Kohn

    The cause of the spike in food prices and energy costs this year remains a mystery, but the increases seen to date are not yet a full-blown emergency, Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman Donald Kohn told a German audience Thursday.

    Speaking behind closed doors at the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy sponsored by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Kohn said higher headline rates of inflation popping up around the globe “have shown only a few tentative signs of embedding themselves in core inflation or in longer-term inflation expectations.”

    But the No. 2 Fed official said central banks nonetheless “must monitor the situation carefully for signs that the increases in relative prices globally do not generate persistently higher inflation.”

  12. grim says:

    C’mon, Kohn was joking…


  13. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    Xanadu design is less than eco-friendly

    In Syracuse, a megamall under construction will include its own windmills and solar panels. In Denver, an open-air mall runs a filtration plant that recycles rainwater for irrigation. In Savannah, a shopping center has a heat-reflecting roof and parking lots that let rain seep through pavement, reducing runoff.

    Across the country, malls are starting to go “green,” saving money on energy and water while touting their environmental consciousness.

    But when the $2 billion Meadowlands Xanadu shopping and entertainment attraction opens next summer as one of the nation’s biggest megamalls, it will have none of those features, according to the developers’ plans.

    Despite a promise to explore eco-friendly alternatives, Xanadu did not incorporate some of the available technology that could have reduced its environmental impact.

    With major construction work close to completion, the complex has no solar panels, nor do its designers have immediate plans to treat and recycle water, despite a state requirement to do so. The roof is a heat-absorbing black, instead of a reflective surface to help lower heating and cooling bills.

    The DEP and the Meadowlands Commission initially planned to require Xanadu to obtain certification from the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design program. The LEED program rates buildings for green elements such as energy and water efficiency, recycled materials and indoor air quality.

    However, under Gov. James E. McGreevey, the state scaled back that mandate, instead urging Xanadu to use LEED and other environmental standards “to the extent practicable. “

  14. mark says:

    When is New Jersey going to start a bail out
    for Cars, and credit cards?

    After all , a welfare state must look after its residents..

    all illegals can apply as well.

  15. njpatient says:

    “Citigroup May Write Down $8.9 Billion, Goldman Says”

    That CAN’T be true!! bi (and S&P) said there would be no more writedowns!!!

  16. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Lennar Results Suffer in Housing Slump

    Lennar, the second-largest U.S. home builder, Thursday reported a smaller quarterly net loss on lower expenses, but the results were worse than expected as deliveries and new orders tumbled.

    Lennar Chief Executive Stuart Miller, citing rising foreclosures and unemployment along with sagging consumer confidence, said the industry needed government help.

    “With the U.S. housing inventory growing in excess of absorption and limited credit availability, the prospect of further deterioration in the home building industry will likely become reality absent federal government action,” he said.

    “We are hopeful that the federal government will acknowledge the need for further reform and will institute programs designed to stabilize and facilitate the recovery of the housing market,” he added.

  17. Cindy says:

    Way off topic –

    That was my alma mater – Fresno State – just down the road a piece – that won the NCAA College World Series Baseball Championship last night (ESPN.) They came out of nowhere and beat Georgia in a 2 out of 3 game series. This is a team that wasn’t even seeded. The pitcher, Justin Wilson, went to Buchanan High….. the Clovis high school my elementary school feeds into. There were several other Clovis High players as well. Pretty proud day for those of us here in Clovis/Fresno.

    You can even Wiki the details.

  18. BC Bob says:

    “The turnaround in business trends that we had been expecting in the second half of 2008 may not occur as quickly as we should have thought,” Goldman said.”


    What a freaking revelation. No sheet. This blog told you the same, 8-9 months ago. Why does anybody listen to these jesters?

  19. BC Bob says:

    Cindy [17],

    Congrats!! I love that team. Down to the wire 5-6 times and they escaped with the big one. Go Bulldogs! Enjoy your championship. You team is great, also very entertaining. The only problem, now that it’s over, I have to go back to watching the Yankees. Maybe I’ll just watch some recent Bergabe testimony.

  20. bairen says:

    If Bank of America’s MBS book is the biggest in the US, how come Citi’s writedowns dwarf BAC’s? With 182 billion MBS book, I would thik BAC must have a lot of subprime, option arm, Alt A on its book. Yet not much in writedowns. What’s up with that?

  21. grim says:

    I would thik BAC must have a lot of subprime, option arm, Alt A on its book. Yet not much in writedowns. What’s up with that?

    …waiting for Ginnie

  22. BC Bob says:

    “In addition to the state cases, Countrywide and its top executives are under investigation by several federal agencies, including the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Securities and Exchange Commission, and are the subject of numerous lawsuits from employees, shareholders and borrowers.”


    Yes, the worm eventually turns.

  23. Cindy says:

    (19) BC Bob

    I was hoping you caught a few games. I was in the NW for the majority of the series – just returned in time to see that playoff game last night. Man…what a story.

  24. bairen says:

    #18 BC,

    more importantly, why do people and firms pay them millions in fees to listen to their BS.

    I love the Charlie Munger story when Berkshire bought a company and the company’s exec handed Munger a thick analysis of the company. Munger asked what this was. The company exec told him it was an analysis they had paid 2 million for. Munger pushed it back and told him we’ll pay you 2 million not to read it.

  25. HEHEHE says:

    BC Bob,

    I think people feel they have to believe it if they are paying GS etc money to tell them such things. Kind of like a hooker telling a john he’s handsome:)

  26. BC Bob says:

    “The cause of the spike in food prices and energy costs this year remains a mystery, but the increases seen to date are not yet a full-blown emergency, Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman Donald Kohn told a German audience Thursday.”

    I just can’t take it. A mystery?

    Can we just pull the plug on these liars. Real incomes are sliding down the slope of hope, food/energy cost are crippling the masses, consumer confidence is at WW2 lows, employment is declining and wealth is being destroyed. A mystery? Not an emergency? Do we wake up when crude is $200/barrel and gas is $8 a gallon? What does it take, a full blown revolution?

    The real mystery is why M3 is no longer reported. Take that back, that’s clear as day.

    Got Gold? That’s no mystery.

  27. BC Bob says:


    26 in moderation. Probably offended the masters.

  28. BC Bob says:

    “Munger pushed it back and told him we’ll pay you 2 million not to read it.”


    Great stuff.

  29. njpatient says:

    “C’mon, Kohn was joking…

    No. Ya see, we’d know if headline inflation was beginning to show up in core inflation if core inflation were as high as headline inflation.
    It isn’t, and therefore it isn’t.
    See how that works?

  30. Rich In NNJ says:

    FYI: May NJMLS Existing and Pending Sale Data for Bergen County

    SFH, Condos/Co-ops, Townhouses

    Year #Sold #U/C
    1998 772 1040
    1999 743 999
    2000 786 977
    2001 736 1075
    2002 847 1022
    2003 713 1030
    2004 807 1072
    2005 873 1149
    2006 808 1050
    2007 824 964
    2008 539 772

  31. thatBIGwindow says:

    Bergen County keywords: Prestigious, Bubblewrapped, Wall St Bonuses, minutes from NYC, Blue Ribbon, enclave

  32. njpatient says:

    17 Cindy!!

    Where ya been??

    We solved the drilling off Florida issue awhile back.

  33. njpatient says:

    “Bergen County keywords: Prestigious, Bubblewrapped, Wall St Bonuses, minutes from NYC, Blue Ribbon, enclave”


  34. Stu says:

    Market futures look pretty bleak. Anyone know what is up?

  35. John says:

    ALPINE NJ – PURCHASE PRICE 2006 $58 Million
    2008 SALE PRICE $42 MIllion.

    Spec House, owner built 30,000 square foot mansion to boot brand new. On top of $14 million dollar price cut!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    House is behind huge fence on popular road in Alpine. Can’t wait to see the RE taxes.

  36. njpatient says:

    Buffett v. Bernanke: Inflation showdown
    8:08am: The billionaire investor says inflation is ‘exploding,’ but the Fed believes commodity price shocks should subside.

  37. njpatient says:

    who ya gonna believe? Warren Buffett or Ben Bernanke’s lying eyes?

  38. BC Bob says:

    “Bergen County keywords: Prestigious, Bubblewrapped, Wall St Bonuses, minutes from NYC, Blue Ribbon, enclave”


    Rear view morror. Presently, WS depression.

  39. BC Bob says:

    “Market futures look pretty bleak. Anyone know what is up?”


  40. John says:

    Goldman in London basically downgraded, GM, Citi lots of companies in the middle of night. I hate Goldman.

  41. Hobokenite says:

    The Rent Wars Return

    Want to know what could happen to the Manhattan rental market over the next few years? Just look around.

    In some neighborhoods, a dozen high-rise condo buildings are newly finished or under construction. But wait until dark and you’ll see that few lights are on in some new buildings.

    Developers are finding it hard to sell as the market tightens – so they’re switching buildings to rentals.

    On sites like Prudential Douglas Elliman, pages of “luxury” one-bedroom apartments, never lived in, are there for the taking. The market is in flux, with some owners thinking they’ll get $4,000 a month and others hoping to get $2,700 for near-identical apartments.

  42. Stu says:

    Economy grew at 1% annual rate in the first quarter, according to a revised government figure. More soon.

  43. njpatient says:

    38 BC
    too right!

  44. njpatient says:

    “The market is in flux, with some owners thinking they’ll get $4,000 a month and others hoping to get $2,700 for near-identical apartments.”

    I’m placing my money on “others”.

  45. mark says:

    anybody have the condo, co-ops for passaic and essex?

  46. kettle1 says:

    HEHE 25

    A hooker is much more honorable then any investment bank as well as a true capitalist as opposed to government supported IB’s.

    Please stop insulting all of those enterprising young ladies by comparing them to investment banks

  47. Rich In NNJ says:

    Harrington Park FUTURE Comp Killer!

    Purchased $600,000 9/21/2006

    MLS# 2825662
    Listed 6/24/2008
    OLP $579,000

  48. skep-tic says:


    sales down 35% year over year. I love it.

  49. Outofstater says:

    #18 Love the quote. Judging from the pontifical tone, they must still think they matter. They don’t.

  50. Rich In NNJ says:

    Hillsdale FUTURE Comp Killer!

    Purchased $510,000 10/2/2007

    MLS# 2825778
    Listed $499,999 6/25/2008

  51. Stu says:

    Keep ’em coming Rich.

    Just make sure my house isn’t on the list ;)

  52. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    GDP revised to 1.0% in first quarter

    The U.S. economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter while inflation also was stronger than estimated, the Commerce Department said Thursday in its final revision to gross domestic product estimates.

    The nation’s real gross domestic product was revised up a tenth of a percentage point to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year. The revision was slightly below the consensus expectation of economists surveyed by MarketWatch.
    The mildly stronger-than-expected report is not expected to have much impact on financial markets.

    Core consumer price inflation rose at a 2.3% annual rate during the quarter, up from the previous estimate of a 2.1% rise. Core inflation has risen 2.0% in the past year, at the high end of the Fed’s comfort zone.

  53. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. weekly initial jobless claims unchanged at 384,000

    U.S. 4-wk. avg. initial jobless claims up 2,250 to 378,250

    U.S. continuing jobless claims rise 82,000 to 3.14 mln

    U.S 4-wk. avg. continuing jobless claims rise to 3.10 mln

  54. Bklynhawk says:

    Rich in NNJ-
    Hey, I lost your email!. I’d love to chat about BC and get your take on towns.


  55. BC Bob says:

    “Please stop insulting all of those enterprising young ladies by comparing them to investment banks”


    I agree. No need to open the window, just sit at the window and turn on the red light.
    No trash for cash here.

  56. Stu says:

    Buyers shying away from GE’s credit card business: WSJ

    “Prospective buyers are afraid that customers of stores like Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE:WMT – News), J.C. Penney Co (NYSE:JCP – News) and Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW – News) are having trouble paying their bills, said the report.”

    Seems like the personal CC crunch is almost upon us, no?

  57. Rich In NNJ says:

    Mahwah FUTURE Comp Killer!

    290 MILLER RD
    Purchased $540,000 9/30/2004

    MLS# 2825724
    Listed $529,000 6/25/2008

  58. kettle1 says:

    Everyone pre-purchasing winter oil/Natural gas??? On a serious note if you have older family members, look into whether they are going to be able to cover heating this winter, prices are likely to spike higher then most would suspect or believe.

    Vectren Ohio issues early warning
    for winter heating bills:

    Although the winter heating season is more than four months away, Vectren Energy Delivery of Ohio (Vectren) is already undertaking proactive steps to encourage customers to prepare now given the natural gas commodities market for the 2008-2009 winter heating season is pointing to much higher prices than last winter.

    Year-round demand on natural gas, spurred from an increase in the use of natural gas to produce electricity, continues to force prices higher. In fact, the prior winter heating season saw market commodity prices that averaged about $8 per dekatherm, and the forecasted 2008-2009 heating season has prices hovering well above $12, according to the New York Mercantile Exchange monthly settlement futures prices. Because the cost of natural gas is passed on to the customer on a dollar-for-dollar basis, customers will be faced with these increased costs in the coming months.

  59. Rich In NNJ says:


    I’ll email JB asking him to forward my email.


  60. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Brunswick to Shut Boat Plants, May Fire 2,700 Workers

    Brunswick Corp., the maker of bowling equipment and recreational boats, plans to close 12 plants and said it may fire as many as 2,700 workers after U.S. power-boat sales fell to the lowest in more than 40 years.

  61. grim says:

    Quick Bennie cut! Must be a rogue trader on the futures market.

  62. HEHEHE says:


    You are right. I apologize to all the NYC area working girls for besmirching their names.

  63. SG says:

    Hillsborough OKs resolution in fight against new affordable-housing rules

    HILLSBOROUGH —Township Committee members want to engage in what they describe as a “two-front war” on affordable housing.

    Fed up by the Council on Affordable Housing’s new rules for municipalities to deal with state-mandated affordable-housing requirements, municipal officials have joined the state League of Municipalities’ potential legal challenge.

    The new rules call for Hillsborough to add 580 new homes by 2018.

    “This action is necessary in order to protect our community from overdevelopment and the so-called builders’ remedy, that would allow thousands of market rate units and hundreds of COAH units to be developed without regard to local zoning regulations,” Mayor Anthony Ferrera said in a statement before the meeting.

  64. BC Bob says:

    “Seems like the personal CC crunch is almost upon us, no?”


    It was a crunch about 6-8 months ago. It has recently been upgraded to a category 5, credit crash.

  65. grim says:


    Something I don’t understand here, why not just back out of COAH and attempt to fight builders remedy in court?

  66. BC Bob says:

    “Quick Bennie cut! Must be a rogue trader on the futures market.”


    He doesn’t need any help. That depression brain cramp is growing.

  67. SG says:

    Royce Brook Golf Course housing plan set for review

    HILLSBOROUGH —A controversial plan to build 1,500 housing units at the Royce Brook Golf Course is scheduled to go before the township’s Planning Board for review.

  68. kettle1 says:

    question for the group….

    IF we enter a true depression, will the banks try to repossess homes en mass like the banks tried to repossess farms in the 30’s? or will the numbers be so large that people are left alone to live rent free? or will the public outcry be loud enough that the government would step in and prevent mass repossession

  69. Cindy says:

    (33) njpatient

    I was in the Pacific NW for a few weeks (the minute school let out) to see the daughters and grandkids. I haven’t read the site for weeks so when you say “We solved the drilling off Florida issue awhile back” I’m clueless. Can you elaborate just a bit?

  70. BC Bob says:

    “Brunswick to Shut Boat Plants, May Fire 2,700 Workers”

    Hate to see workers lose their jobs. That said, it has been a great ride. The best stock symbol on the market today.

  71. skep-tic says:


    “IF we enter a true depression, will the banks try to repossess homes en mass like the banks tried to repossess farms in the 30’s?”

    Congress is already trying (and seems likely to succeed) to bring a huge number of loans onto the gov’ts books. I would think that we will never see mass foreclosures since the gov’t will simply step in and buy up mortgages.

  72. Bklynhawk says:

    “Brunswick to Shut Boat Plants, May Fire 2,700 Workers”

    Little tid bit from my corner of the world, there’s been a big drop in advertising in boating and sailing magazines in the last year. Unfortunately for the people who work at these companies, we’ll see more manufacturers throwing in the towel or severely cutting back operations.

  73. R Patrick says:

    76 Kettle

    The will repo because then they can sell to the new land owner class. Who will then be able to consolidate vast holdings of rentable property.

    You have to live somewhere.

  74. scribe says:

    bairen, #20

    B of A exited the subprime business pre-bubble – around 2001.

    Their exposure is in the other categories.

  75. SG says:

    Global real estate to stay a wild ride: Pralle

    NEW YORK (Reuters) – For commercial real estate investors, Brazil is a dream and Spain is a nightmare, Michael Pralle, president of real estate private equity firm J.E. Robert Cos, said on Wednesday.

    “I’d avoid Spain and Italy right now, and be patient in the United States,” Pralle said at the Reuters Global Real Estate Summit in New York. “It’s going to get worse before it gets better.”

    About 70 percent of its investments currently are in the United States, but it expects that to drop to 50 percent within three years, he said.

    U.S. commercial real estate prices are off about 5 percent from this cycle’s peak last year, and many experts believe that by the time it’s all over, the plunge will be 15 to 20 percent.

  76. lisoosh says:

    Cindy – Congrats on your team.
    How was your trip to visit your daughters?

  77. Stu says:


    “If we enter a true depression, will the banks try to repossess homes en mass like the banks tried to repossess farms in the 30’s?”

    During the great depression, the income gap was significantly smaller, yet the top income earners paid a 90% income tax rate to fund the huge government programs that built many of our parks, dams, bridges, tunnels, highways and other infrastructure. Don’t see it happening this time around. Just the talk of letting the Bush tax cuts expire have people threatening to jump off bridges in protest. The way I see it, the government will just increase the debt to a level so high that the dollar truly becomes worthless and that would be the end of our dynasty as no one would be willing to buy our debt. At current debt levels, we still have a chance of digging ourselves out of the holes, but it would require some hefty tax increases to do so. This of course, won’t happen. Let’s all hope we don’t enter a depression!

  78. SG says:

    Grim: Something I don’t understand here, why not just back out of COAH and attempt to fight builders remedy in court?

    I agree with you 100%. The argument I have heard is they will be open to Builder’s lawsuit.

  79. kettle1 says:

    The avergae mortgage default rate in 2000 was 7% it is currently expected to hit 25%+. So if we assume that Credit Cards will see a similar trend (the default rate almost quadrupling), then the 2004 CC default rate of 7% could shoot up to about 25% as well.

    Current US Credit card debt is about 300 billion. SO the Credit card companies could be looking at “write downs” of 75 billion dollars and a collapse of the consumer credit industry, as no one will give out lines of credit at that point with a pound of flesh to back it up.

    buckle your seat belt

    PS these numbers are all WAG’s (Wild A$$ Guesses) and could be flat out wrong, BC/ ChiFi or others may want to correct me

  80. lisoosh says:

    My problem with Hillsborough and COAH is that they cry “overdevelopment” over 500 COAH units but have no problem building THOUSANDS of other units.

    Methinks they doth protest too much.

    How about they just meld that 500 into the other thousands they actually want to build and then development will remain at the same level?

    Or perhaps they don’t want to rub shoulders with just moderate income people? Not so long since Hillsborough was pretty blue collar. Getting a little uppity these days.

  81. Stu says:

    “U.S. commercial real estate prices are off about 5 percent from this cycle’s peak last year, and many experts believe that by the time it’s all over, the plunge will be 15 to 20 percent.”

    I can handle a 30 to 40 percent gain in my CRE ultra short.

  82. Cindy says:

    Fresno Bee today…”Home sales statewide surged in May for the second consecutive month as buyers capitalized on low prices and ample supply.”

    Sales of new homes continued to struggle, but sales of existing houses climbed 15.5% from the previous month and 18.1% from May of 2007, topping 400,000 for the first time since early last year, the California Association of Realtors reported Wednesday.”

    “The prices have dropped and the market is reacting to it,” said John Shamshoian, owner of Realty Concepts, a Fresno residential real estate firm.” Realty Concepts had record transactions in April of 118, while May’s 123 deals were double a year earlier and nearly a record, Shamshoian said.”

    In Fresno and Clovis sales of existing homes climbed 19% month-to-month and year-over-year.”

  83. John says:

    GS strongly recommended that investors sell shares of Citigroup Inc. (C), saying it faced multiple problems, including more asset write-downs, higher loss provisions for consumer credit, and the potential for more capital raises, dividend cuts or asset sales.

    Shares of Citigroup fell 4.8% to $17.95 in premarket trading. A Citigroup spokeswoman said the company doesn’t comment on analyst reports.

  84. Stu says:

    Premarket indicators continue to plummet!

  85. kettle1 says:

    actually, this may be more representattive of our current situation.


    The “chinese drilling off of florida” was all BS meant to stir the political pot.

    “Vice President Dick Cheney has issued a statement to Associated Press backing off his claim that China was drilling 60 miles off the Florida coast:”

  86. Stu says:

    Headlines from Yahoo Finance:

    Sure doesn’t look like a turnaround in the 2nd half of 2008!

    * 1Q GDP Revised Up, but Growth Still Subpar- AP
    * Jobless Claims Hold Steady- AP
    * Fed Signals Aggressive Rate Cutting is Done- AP
    * Lennar 2Q Loss Narrows; Sees Worsening Conditions- AP
    * Stocks Head for Lower Open After GDP Reading- AP
    * Oil Prices Rising After Steep Fall- AP
    * Goldman Puts Citigroup on ‘Conviction Sell List’- Reuters
    * Goldman Cuts GM, Other Auto and Parts Cos.- Reuters
    * Discover Profit Rises on Higher Card Use- AP

  87. Cindy says:

    (75) lisoosh

    Excellent trip – miss them all BUT I need to rest up from playing 24/7 with a 2 and 3 year old. Man! Bless all of you who try daily to keep up with them and meet their needs!

  88. SG says:

    The worst is yet to come from credit crisis and real estate bubble

    Talcott Franklin, co-author of the “Mortgage & Asset Backed Securities Litigation Handbook,” says that the credit crisis and real estate bubble has barely scratched the surface and will get much worse before there is any improvement. In a radio interview, Franklin described the current situation as “the Mount Everest of housing bubbles,” and noted that recovery from the last big real estate bubble – caused by the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s – took 10 to 14 years, and how the current situation may take even longer to bounce back.

  89. bairen says:

    #73 scribe

    Thanks for the info.

  90. skep-tic says:


    so our choices are either (1) confiscatory tax rates or (2) massive dollar devaluation.

    what about letting the market correct? I guess that would be too straightforward and fair.

  91. kettle1 says:

    Is it time to assume that what ever GS is publicly suggesting is the opposite of what they are doing? for that matter does Bi work for GS? that would make a lot of sense……

  92. Laughing all the way says:

    Friend just took a job at Fannie Mae. Should he be worried?

  93. grim says:

    Only if he has an aversion to pitchforks and torches.

  94. Cindy says:

    (84) Kettle1 – Thanks re drilling.

  95. Rich In NNJ says:

    Wyckoff FUTURE Comp Killer!

    Purchased $562,500 8/15/2006

    Current MLS# 2825519
    OLP: $619,900 3/19/2007
    LLP: $549,900 6/24/2008

  96. bairen says:



    Do you think GS is short CITI before they made these pronouncements? I can’t stand this BS. These investment banks should be required to reveal all the positions they have on a stock or commodity when they release their opinions.

  97. bairen says:

    Here’s some examples of why we are all buggered.

    Two of my relatives are concerned with peak oil and global warming. So what do they do to help out?

    One buys a frigging Winnebago with gas around $4 a gallon to cruise around the US. Every 300 miles he is consuming a barrel of oil.

    The other buys a 5,000 sq ft house connected to the grid. If it was off the grid and powered by wind/solar and reusing rain water I wouldn’t be so annoyed.

    But it’s OK. Sometimes they bring reusable bags to the grocers and they donate $3 on their tax return to conservation. Plus $20 a year to the Sierra Club.

  98. SG says:

    Couples Swap Homes, Avoid Real Estate Woes

    PHOENIX — As the housing crisis continues, two couples in Arizona found an easy way to sell their homes: they traded them.

    “This really just started out as such an incredibly bizarre situation,” Lisa Blank said.

  99. gary says:

    Bernanke needs to drop rates another 50 basis points to provide more stimulus, don’t you agree? We’re a consumption nation, it’s what we do best. Forget all this other nonsense about getting back to business the old way, this is our business. Lease an i series, go on vacation three times a year, purchase the latest flat screen on an annual basis… this is where it’s at. We’re entitled, you know.

  100. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    In this economic climate, anybody who buys a Winnebago (a whole herd of Winnebagos, they’re giving ’em away!)…..should have their sanity checked.

  101. thatBIGwindow says:

    How much does a Winnebago go for nowadays?

  102. bairen says:

    #97 gary,

    He should cut 300 basis points so fed funds is negative and charge savers 1% for keeping money in banks. Think of the boom we would get as people emptied their meager savings and cd accounts and bought stuff. Flat screens and granite for everyone!!!!!

    Cause we are entitled to it you know.

  103. SG says:

    The Credit Crunch Still Bites

    There are 4 million homes on the market and 2 million of them are vacant with practically no sales activity. My brother-in-law, who lives in a major retirement community in central Florida, tells me nothing is moving in his 60,000-unit middle-class development. Nobody gets out in one piece.

    From their peak, home prices have declined about 18%. Consider that half of family net worth is tied up in real estate, and the other half is financial assets. Individual net worth topped out a year ago at $60 trillion. Now I estimate that we’re closer to $55 trillion, and that could easily drop to $50 trillion before the bottom is plumbed.

  104. bairen says:

    I think he paid around 100k. Bought a new one cause they didn’t want a used bathroom. Could have bought a 2 year old one for 25 to 30k less and redone the bathroom for 5k or so.

    As I said. We are buggered.

  105. gary says:


    Can I purchase a granite house? lol!

  106. kettle1 says:


    i dont know, a winnibego could be the housing of the future!!! a home that doesnt have to worry about property taxes!!!!

  107. BC Bob says:

    “Couples Swap Homes, Avoid Real Estate Woes”

    Probably easier/cheaper to just swap partners?

  108. Stu says:

    “Can I purchase a granite house? lol!”

    You realize, that you would have to have butcher block countertops in the kitchen then!

  109. njpatient says:

    68 cindy

    “I haven’t read the site for weeks so when you say “We solved the drilling off Florida issue awhile back” I’m clueless. Can you elaborate just a bit?”

    Cheney had to publicly admit that he was full of crap on this one. It was very embarrassing for him.

  110. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    I will only consider a winnebago if it has granite counter-tops!

  111. BC Bob says:

    “i dont know, a winnibego could be the housing of the future!!! a home that doesnt have to worry about property taxes!!!!”

    I like a house boat. With sea levels rising, the masses will really be underwater.

  112. bairen says:

    #103 gary,

    Sure. It’s called a cave. Just head for the hills and stake your claim.

    They’re not making any more caves you know.

  113. njpatient says:


    “Probably easier/cheaper to just swap partners?”

    now you’re going to have to explain Fritz Peterson and Mike Kekich to the youngsters.

  114. kettle1 says:


    You describe one of the biggest problems. Even a lot of the people wo are even aware of peak oil have no real idea of its implications. very few peopel realize that the first place that will take a hit due to oil is food. hence all the headlines of food aid groups running dry, and commodity prices sky rocketing. The difference is that most people in the US can absorb the price increase for now. Collapse of the global megafarm food production/distribution model is what will be the 1st catastrophic impact of peak oil.
    corporate megafarms will still be around but the global apsect will collapse as will small scale private farms due to fuel/fertilizer costs. the mega farms will be able to utilize economies of scale and have the corporate power to push prices onto consumers while small and private farms will not.

  115. gary says:


    Agreed! Especially if the cave is in the Ramapo hills because it’s part of prestigous Bergen County. And I heard the value of caves only goes up! My neighbors’ friends’ son-in-laws’ step Mom said it… because she knows someone who just passed the realtor exam after three tries. In fact, I think Graydon and his sister and his Mom are moving there after the settlement.

  116. gary says:


    I’ll just refi to get the butcher block installed.

  117. grim says:

    Is it just me, or do RVs seem like a particularly reckless use of energy?

    Do these things even exist anywhere in the world, or is this a uniquely American concept. Europeans hike around with backpacks, Americans take their entire home with them.

    Let me get this straight, we’re going to build a house, and put it on wheels, so that you can drive a house across country consuming prolific amounts of fuel along the way?

    Good lord.

  118. bairen says:

    #112 kettle,

    What impact is the higher costs of fuel having on organic farmers? Supposedly they don’t use artificial fertilizers.

  119. kettle1 says:

    110 bairen

    actually they are making more caves!!!

    Davis Caves Earth-Sheltered Home

  120. Doyle says:

    grim Says:
    June 26th, 2008 at 9:48 am
    Is it just me, or do RVs seem like a particularly reckless use of energy?

    Grim: head down to a big time SEC football game this fall, your head will explode.

  121. njpatient says:

    115 SG

    Those people complaining that they spent $600K for a house and now the developer is auctioning the same place next door for $300K can go f themselves.

  122. gary says:

    grim [117],

    We’re entitled. This is America, you know.

  123. njpatient says:

    “Is it just me, or do RVs seem like a particularly reckless use of energy?”

    How ’bout Nascar events attended via RV?

  124. gary says:

    njpatient [121],

    Wow, you sound like me!! :) They’re all a bunch of nars.

  125. njpatient says:

    “We’re entitled. This is America, you know.”

    We are NOT going to change our standard of living!

  126. Stu says:

    Gary (116) says: “I’ll just refi to get the butcher block installed.”

    Now that the Fed has stopped cutting, now may be the best time to refinance before interest rates are no longer at their historic lows.

    Next month:

    Now that the Fed has stopped cutting, now may be the best time to refinance before interest rates are no longer near their historic lows.

  127. Jill says:

    Comp killer in Washington Township (Bergen):

    MLS #2811406

    Started out at $434,900.
    Dropped to $429,900.
    Dropped to $419,900.
    Not at $399,900.

    At least this one is nicely kept up with some updating. Other capes in neighborhood with NOTHING done to them at all are still listed in the $415K – $419K range.

  128. Doyle says:


    NJP, same crowd as the SEC game… that way they get use of the RV year-round.

  129. bairen says:

    #117 grim,

    They have rvs in Australia. Not to the extent we have them over here.

    I’m fuming at my relatives. People are starving from the skyrocketing cost of food caused by the increase in energy. Yet at the same time others knowingly grossly over consume. I’m like, how many people will die from starvation or the elements so you can sit in your 1,000 sq ft media room with stadium seating?

  130. njpatient says:

    “They’re all a bunch of nars.”

    Nars to the left of me, nars to the right, here I am, stuck in the middle with gary

  131. kettle1 says:

    118 bairen

    the organic farmers are being hurt as well. This is because as fertilizer becomes more expensive and organic becomes more popular, demand for organic fertilizer is increasing. Not nearly as much as petro based fertilizer but there is still pain. Also you will have lower yields with organic fertilizer as you can/are not “force feeding” the crops. This means that the unit cost of the crop sold at market is higher without necessarily increasing your profit margin

  132. John says:

    The govt actually encourages those bozos to buy those damm RVs as the interest on the loan is taxable dedutable as it is considered a second home.

  133. njpatient says:

    132 john
    I did not know that.
    That’s disgusting.

  134. Graydon says:

    You people are all just a bunch of jealous wannabe renters who live in dirty squalor! Humph!

  135. kettle1 says:

    by the way with the FDA’s recent classification or the term “organic” as applied to food, it is very difficult to now determine whether a food is actually organic. according to the new rules as long as a certain % of the food is/was organic then the entire product may be labeled organic even if pesticides and other nasties were used in it.

    Unless you know the source and trust it all organic is now is a premium label to bolster the Cargill’s of the world

  136. grim says:

    Squalor is Prime!

  137. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. May existing-home sales rise 2% to 4.99 million pace

    U.S. May existing-home inventory falls to 10.8 month supply

    U.S. May existing-home median price down 6.3% in past year

    U.S. existing-home sales down 15.9% in past year

  138. BC Bob says:

    “now you’re going to have to explain Fritz Peterson and Mike Kekich to the youngsters.”


    Haven’t heard those names in awhile. Dogs and kids, also.

  139. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    SG :118

    Did the lady in that video actually say, “I feel like my parents grave has been robbed”??

  140. BC Bob says:

    “You people are all just a bunch of jealous wannabe renters who live in dirty squalor!”

    Great to hear wannabe’s again. I thought all the barkers were flattened by a Mack truck?

  141. Rich In NNJ says:

    From MarketWatch

    U.S. May existing-home sales rise 2% as expected

    The U.S. home and condo resales inched higher in May as prices continued to fall, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday. Resales of U.S. houses and condos rose 2% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.99 million in May from 4.89 million in April. It’s the highest sales pace since February. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected sales to rise to 5 million. Resales have sunk 15.9% in the past year and are down 31% from the peak in 2005. The median sales price was down 6.3% compared with a year earlier. Inventories of unsold homes fell 1.4% on a not-seasonally adjusted basis to 4.49 million, a 10.9-month supply.

    Emphasis added

  142. seeking advice says:

    How well are train towns in NJ going to hold up vs. those not on train lines?

    I read yesterday that CS futures predict a 25% drop in the NYC market by mid 2010, which is mind-blowing.

    Will the easier, cheaper and “greener” access to NYC insulate places a little bit like Maplewood/S. Orange versus somewhere like Verona? If so, to what degree?

  143. grim says:


    Your black box is missing two critical variables, top schools and high incomes (Snootyville, Haughtyville, etc).

    Those, along with the train access you mention (midtown direct, preferrably) are the key traits of a handful of markets that continue to hold strong. I wouldn’t classify SO or Maplewood as part of that group.

    Remember, Paterson has train access too.

  144. Stu says:

    Nasdaq off by 2%

  145. make money says:

    Oh, it seems the masses have figured out that Ben can’t raise rates cause he has a boat load of Arms and other toxic stuff on his Balance Sheet so everyone is fleeing back to GOLD.

    Welcome back sheep as you have increased the price og Gold by $26 today. Tommorrow please invite your friends and lets become Gold bugs together.

  146. Bubble Disciple says:

    Re: 41
    I’m not convinced that deregulation alone would result in the construction of more affordable housing in NYC.
    If that were true, we would see more in less regulated places like Northern NJ.
    But all of the new construction seemed to be McMansions or luxury condos, for the simple reason that this was more profitable at the time.
    There needs to be some incentive to build affordable housing, so we don’t wind up with inventory lopsided on the high end.

  147. BC Bob says:

    “Tommorrow please invite your friends and lets become Gold bugs together.”


    No, too soon. We want them to jump on board when it’s much higher. After all, we will need to sell to the late comers?

  148. Stu says:

    Is there a way to short the U.S. government?

  149. jam says:

    [121] I have to agree. Its unfortunate that they are in the position that they are in, but they have no one to blame but themselves – no one forced them to pay 597K.

    You know, come to think about it, I feel betrayed by Citi. I bought that stock years ago at a much higher price and now, someone can buy a share for 17.88. Is the government going to buy it back from me for $55?

  150. gary says:

    stu [152],

    GS is already doing it. :o

  151. GetAClueNJ says:

    #79 lisoosh

    I’m a life long Hillsborough resident, all 25 years I’ve been alive. And I can’t stand the massive influx of McMansions and the high and mighty, entitled, Lexus SUV driving boneheads that came with them. This town used to be a blue collar farming and labor town. Now it’s all these freaking yuppies that can’t control their drug addict kids. It’s absoluty sickening the type of people that have moved here and ruined this town.

    I would love nothing more than to see a tornado rip through that eye sore of a development that Toll put up on New Center and Beekman. As far as I’m concerned, anybody that bought those $800k pieces of junk are absolute fools. For over 3/4 of a million, I wouldn’t want to even be able to see a neighbor, let alone be able to throw a wiffle ball out my window and hit their house. Oh, and for that kind of money, I better damn well be able to put in a pool or park a boat in my driveway, unlikes these morons.

    And then you have the guy who’s house mysteriously burned down on New Amwell road and he replaced it with this monstrosity that spans from property line to property line on a road full of 50’s style ranches and split levels. And there’s also that piece of excess that was built across the street from the high school and another wanna-be-baller estate on Hillsborough road. I really hate what is happening to this town.

  152. John says:

    The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate average was 6.45% with an average 0.6 point for the week ending June 26. Last week, the average was 6.42%, and in the year-ago period it was 6.67%. Freddie Mac said the last time the 30-year rate average was higher was the week ending Aug. 23, 2007, when it averaged 6.52%.

  153. kettle1 says:

    Anyone enjoy the discussion of the latest NIE on climate change??? Mass population shifts, food shortages, sea level rise and failed countires all by 2030


    do you realize you have now been put on a watch list for suggesting that we all short the US gov?

  154. seeking advice says:


    Then what kind of slide do you see in Maplewood/S. Orange? Comparable to everywhere else?

    And what places will maintain some price stability, in your opinion?


  155. Rich In NNJ says:

    Woodcliff Lake FUTURE Comp Killer!

    212 GLEN RD

    Purchased: $838,000 8/8/2006

    Current MLS#: 2825921
    OLP: $829,000 5/1/2008
    LLP: $799,000 6/26/2008

  156. manhattanexile says:

    Stu # 80

    can you tell me which ETFs/MFs short CRE?

  157. skep-tic says:

    2d Amend rights clarified today:

    Justice Antonin Scalia, writing for four colleagues, said the Constitution does not permit “the absolute prohibition of handguns held and used for self-defense in the home.”

  158. John says:

    $19.5 Million Hamptons Mansion In Foreclosure
    Shelly Banjo reports:

    The foreclosure mess is casting a shadow over New York’s Hamptons this summer. One result: An 18,000-square-foot Bridgehampton home has been reduced from its $27 million asking price to “just” $19.5 million.

    The Bridgehampton mansion, which was built by Burns Development Corp., on more than 4 acres of land, played host to the 2006 Hamptons Designer Showhouse, an annual event where notable interior designers outfit a Hamptons home, showcasing trends in luxury home design to potential clients. The home, which features a pond, five-person elevator and something called ‘a flower-cutting room,’ went on the market once the showcase was over. But late last year a foreclosure notice was filed against the property’s $4.4-million mortgage.

    New York’s Corcoran Group holds the listing for the 8-bedroom, 9 1/2-bath house and would not comment. (See a virtual tour of the home, hosted by Michael Burns of Burns Development.)

    “We’ve seen a significant increase in million dollar-plus homes being offered to us, where before we almost never saw houses at this level,” says Jacob Benaroya, president and managing partner of Biltmore Capital Group, a New York-based firm that purchases problem loans from mortgage lenders. Although Mr. Benaroya has no connection to this Hamptons mansion, his firm deals with other properties in the area.

    But “this type of specialty home” is harder to sell, he adds.

    In the first three months of this year, banks launched preliminary foreclosure actions against a record 120 borrowers in the towns of East Hampton and Southampton, according to a recent article in the New York Post.

    Other Hamptons high rollers mentioned in the NY Post include Janice Becker, a regular on the Southampton village social circuit who is facing foreclosure on her multimillion-dollar Wyandanch Lane property and advertising veteran Ransel Potter who is defaulting on a $1.8 million mortgage on an Amagansett parcel.

    “These high-end areas were thought to be immune to foreclosures…but we’ve now seen that being wealthy doesn’t preclude you from being stupid with your money,” Mr. Benaroya says.

    Permalink | Trackback URL:

  159. Nom Deplume says:

    [from yesterday’s thread]


    Thought you were going to Philly? Course, we do have a Philly office, but we already have a tax/comp/bene assoc. and he doesn’t like competition from ivy leaguers that are smarter than him.


    Problem with the Costa Rican compound idea is that it is hard to use on weekends, or to get timber or vegetables to bring to the suburban/urban home. Also harder to get to in the event of a true emergency. More like a retirement escape.

    The idea is not simply survivalist, urban meltdown living, but to have a usable, productive location that serves several purposes and provides an income stream to offset costs. Unless the U.S. radically rearranges the tax system, you can live off-the-grid right here in the U.S.

    This holding can also be combined with certain aggressive tax positions that rely on offshore entities structured to avoid the FPHC or PFIC regulations to provide tax benefits as well. Still working on this last aspect—may be too aggressive.

    Still, the idea translates well enough to Costa Rica, you just have to find the right property at the right price, and have a sufficient number of investors to make it worthwhile on the cheap (and avoid the aforesaid tax regulatory schemes).

  160. morpheus says:

    now, now,now. Let’s place nice and don’t knock RVs. I have a small metzendorf trailer from the 1960’s that I bought for $700.00 that I tow with my Jeep wrangler. It is small, comfortable, and I admit it has its problems.

    Gas prices being what they are, I will still take the trailer for a 10 day camping trip. However, it will be closer to home. I have to wait till the “little guy” is older so he can appreciate Arcadia National Park in Maine.

    The trailer does not have all the creature comforts, ie., air-conditioning, TV, ect., but as my wife says “if you are going to camp, then camp. If you want TV and air-conditioning, stay home!”

  161. Doyle says:

    I only camp in hotels.

  162. Richie says:

    I can live without the TV & air conditioning; although I would DEFINITELY need an internet connection.


  163. thatBIGwindow says:

    james bednar is really an anagram for

    Bad Jerse Man

    okay, I am bored

  164. Nom Deplume says:

    Supremes strike down DC gun ban.

    This may not mean much. Depends on the text of the opinion. Will still have to fight the same battle in NJ regardless.

  165. Stu says:

    Kettle1 (157),


    do you realize you have now been put on a watch list for suggesting that we all short the US gov?”

    I would bet that my long term short CRE has had me listed for a little over 9 months already.

    manhattanexile: SRS, but do your research since it’s an ultrashort ETF. With 2x the leverage, you can get a real wedgie if you don’t hedgie.

    Disclaimer: I am not recommending sh*t.

  166. kettle1 says:

    163 nom,

    i was kidding about the costa rican compound. but agree 100% with your pennsyltucky retreat idea

  167. kettle1 says:


    did you ever get any other interested parties besides me?

  168. John says:

    james bednar

    Drone for the
    Association of

  169. grim says:

    National Right to Carry here we come!

    (runs, hides)

  170. Stu says:

    Advice for Grim:

    Start investigating personal security guards.

  171. BC Bob says:

    “do you realize you have now been put on a watch list for suggesting that we all short the US gov?”


    One of the best trades on the board for the past 7 years. Oh, and those markets that correspond positively to this short.

  172. Stu says:


    I’d be interested in joining your compound. I’m a hell of a gardener and pretty good with electric. Will there be any polygamy or munitions involved?

  173. RayC says:

    173 Grim

    You don’t have to run. We know you’re packin’ heat. I ain’t gonna argue with you.

  174. njpatient says:

    162 john

    ‘a flower-cutting room,’


  175. make money says:

    11,599 how fast can we see a 10 handle?

  176. njpatient says:


    “Thought you were going to Philly? ”

    Likely in a year or two, but we don’t have to tell that to the folks in your recruiting dept. when I show up to the scotch tasting, do we?

  177. njpatient says:

    171 ket

    “did you ever get any other interested parties besides me?”

    I would be, but Mrs. Patient not so keen.

  178. Stu says:

    Nas down 2.6%!

  179. make money says:


    No poligamy just Elliot Spitzer type transactions.

  180. njpatient says:

    176 stu

    “I’m a hell of a gardener”

    This is actually the biggest reason why I look forward to buying. I love the vegetable gardening.

  181. thatBIGwindow says:

    you dont have to buy a house to plant a garden

  182. Nom Deplume says:

    [171] Kettle1,

    Other than Stu at [176], no one from the board. But I wasn’t expecting much. The target demographic is professionals with families and significant savings, living in NYC or its close-in suburbs in NJ.

    Also, folks have to get past the whole “crackpot” notion of having this sort of property interest. I can certainly explain the concept and benefits, and the way it is structured makes it a reasonable investment, but folks still have to come to grips with parking 40-70K in a marginally productive investment for a couple of decades. Not the easiest sell.


    Munitions, yes. Legal targets only. As for polygamy, you are on your own, just stay away from my wife.

  183. njpatient says:

    “you dont have to buy a house to plant a garden”

    Of course not, and I haven’t waited, but a lot of things I would like to do are costly, and I don’t want to put a few thou into the landlord’s future enjoyment of his property.

  184. prtraders2000 says:

    I was out a client yesterday, and they said that their banker of 18 yrs was removed from their account and his supervisor put on. Shortly after they were notified that they better start looking for a new bank before their 3.5 million balloon payment comes due on their facility. Existing bank is shedding risk and apparently they are out. Luckily they have 18 months and the personal resources to secure credit, but I suspect many small businesses are going to be in trouble soon with credit disappearing.

  185. Nom Deplume says:


    I just perused the SCOTUS opinion. No need to run and hide. This decision barely nudges the needle here in the People’s Republic since NJ will permit a gun in the home. Scalia purposefully avoided expanding the decision beyond the narrow relief requested (meaning carry laws are unaffected), and did not apply strict scrutiny, leaving open the possiblity state “regulation” designed to keep all but the most determined from exercising the right to own.

  186. kettle1 says:


    munitions… absolutly! :)

    Polygamy….??? to each their own my friend, perhaps we will need a dont ask dont tell policy

  187. bi says:

    whats wrong with this?

    Existing home sales edge up 2 percent in May

  188. Stu says:

    Just wait until the NJgator reads my polygamy comments. I may be eating out tonight, as in, out in the dog house ;)

  189. John says:

    I love this clip of Gene Gene the Dancing Machine!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  190. Stu says:


    All in distressed markets.

  191. make money says:

    One dollaa, one dollaa, get you IndyMac stock here for one dollar.

    bank run anyone????

  192. BC Bob says:

    “whats wrong with this?”


    You tell me.

    The median price of an existing home sold in May dropped to $208,600, a fall of 6.3 percent from a year go. That was the fifth biggest year-over-year price decline on records that go back to 1999.

    U.S. existing-home sales down 15.9% in past year

    Resales have sunk 15.9% in the past year and are down 31% from the peak in 2005.

  193. DINJ says:

    A little off topic but..anybody notice a few more scooters on the road lately?

  194. kettle1 says:


    i tend to take back roads and in the last 6 months i have seen an explosion of motorcycles and scooters

  195. Nom Deplume says:

    [197] DINJ

    No surprise, and I was going to get one last year when I lived in Philly, but then I moved and did not want to deal.

    I have not seen many at all in Brigadoon however.

  196. njcoast says:

    Lots of Vespas tooling around the shore area.

  197. DINJ says:

    Nom, Why Scoot when you can glide an an air of superiority.

  198. Clotpoll says:

    BC (19)-

    “Maybe I’ll just watch some recent Bergabe testimony.”

    Watching Yankees and/or Bergabe both go on my “Acceptable Substitutes for Syrup of Ipecac” list.

  199. Clotpoll says:

    bairen (20)-

    Buying CFC was BAC’s little way of taking a writedown…in a non-writedown form.

  200. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Alt-A Performance Gets Much Worse in May

    Problems are continuing to grow sharply among Alt-A borrowers, despite a dearth of pending rate resets, underscoring just how much home price depreciation is affecting borrowers in key housing markets nationwide.

    A new report released by Clayton Fixed Income Services, Inc. on Wednesday afternoon found that 60+ day delinquency percentages and roll rates increased in every vintage during May among Alt-A loans, while cure rates have declined only for 2003 and 2007 vintages.

    The picture being painted for Alt-A is increasingly beginning to look a whole lot like subprime, as a result, even if peaking resets in the loan class aren’t expected until the middle of next year. In particular, loss severity continues to ratchet upward — a trend that portends some likely further reassessment of rating models at each of the major credit rating agencies, as they catch up with the data.

    Loss severity — the average amount lost relative to unpaid principal balance — reached 41.4 percent for all Alt-A first liens in REO during the most recent rolling six month period through May, Clayton said; that was up from a 37.6 percent rolling average one month earlier, and compares to a similar 49 percent loss severity average for subprime first liens liquidated in REO through May.

    Those numbers make Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services latest assumption of 35 percent loss severity on Alt-A loans, only one month old, already start to look a little too conservative. The rating agency’s updated loss severity assumption was one key reason the agency cut ratings of 1,326 Alt-A residential mortgage-backed securities in late May — and put another 567 AAA-rated tranches on negative ratings watch.

  201. Nom Deplume says:


    DINJ: “Nom, Why Scoot when you can glide an an air of superiority.”

    How did you know I was a Bostonian??? ;-o

  202. kettle1 says:

    Anheuser-Busch to reject $46.3 billion InBev offer

  203. DINJ says:

    #207 Egad!!!!
    #205 Ass-trading! I love it!!!

  204. Stu says:


    Someone told me that last night. Seemed like insider info to me.

  205. John says:

    You know what I am bored with the bad news. Back in August 2007 when this started I was shocked, around March 2008 I was even more shocked when Bear collasped now it is like Whatever. A lot of people I know are in the whatever stage, sweet 16s, weddings, vacations etc. as life goes on. As my friend put it in his Tony Town, “there is a line of people waiting to buy at reduced prices” He thinks his town is great and it is irrelvant what you paid as everyone is staying till the day they die. As for the schmucks in his town who lose their job and then their home, well at 200K off another nice family will buy and move in. He thinks the crap towns will tank more as they don’t have a line of people with cash looking to buy into his town. He then told me Look their will always be rich people and if I want to live in a rich train town I need to suck it up and relize I am going to get money off but not blood in the streets money off as I would in a crap neighborhood. Ouch that hurts.

  206. kettle1 says:


    a tactical move to force InBev to increase the offer?

  207. BC Bob says:

    “He then told me Look their will always be rich people and if I want to live in a rich train town I need to suck it up and relize I am going to get money off but not blood in the streets money off as I would in a crap neighborhood.”


    Same crap, different market.

    I heard the same from traders regarding rich dot com stocks. The horseman were said to be immune. Too bad they forgot to feed the mule.

  208. Clotpoll says:

    Clue (155)-

    “I would love nothing more than to see a tornado rip through that eye sore of a development that Toll put up on New Center and Beekman.”

    I troll that neighborhood for foreclosures. They’re coming; I can smell it.

    Sometimes I just drive thru neighborhoods like that and look for high grass and open windows.

  209. John says:

    The under-5 population in Manhattan ballooned almost 30 percent from 2000 through 2006, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates. With a boom in construction of 3-, 4- and 5-bedroom apartments, demand for kindergarten is spilling to public schools.

  210. kettle1 says:

    “$200 oil would break the back of the global economy,” – Deutsche Bank AG’s Chief Energy Economist Adam Sieminski

  211. randyj says:

    organic farmers won’t be able to escape the inflation either… they use cow manure to fertilize… cows are being slaughtered en masse due to the high price of corn/feed…. no one is immune to the disaster that the Fed has wreaked on the US

  212. BC Bob says:

    randyj [217],

    Correct. Cattle ranchers are unloading their inventory at record pace. Look at long dated cattle/belly calls.

    Next year there will be chaos on the hill, blaming speculators for the steep increase in futures prices.

    All Disclaimers.

  213. Stu says:

    Cow manure is the only fertilizer I use in my garden. Gosh the tomatoes love it. Cucumbers, squash and peppers could care less, although the bugs seem to like the peppers. I have stupid squirrels that occasionally steal tomatoes, but I have enough of ’em that it really doesn’t hurt.

  214. make money says:



    Do you know any Beef EFT or way to play this besides options?


  215. John says:

    Re 214 I wish I could disagree. My friends town is mainly a catholic, graduate school educated, SVP level crowd with top schools, parks, golf course and a 35 minute commute via train to NYC. The people with the bucks playing “keeping up with the O’briens” want to live there. The bottom line is each person whether they are Jewish, Hindu, Catholic or WASP have only a few towns to choose from where they fit in from an age, ethnic, religion, social status and educational level. People will pay more for that. Outside the tri state area like Minneosta for instance where my friend is from “who is house hunting here” is not like that, she said it was easy in her home state all the towns are the same. But she wants to fit in with a neighborhood with older career driven upper class women in their early to late 40’s with young kids who have recently left the work force. She has found one or two towns to her suiting. Regardless of price she can’t move to astoria queens and hang out with the 23 year old greek moms in the park or Williamsburg with the 20 year old Hasidic Moms or Flatbush with the “baby moms” cashing the govt check when she is a 43 year old MBA/CPA first time stay at home Mom. She said that is what she hates about the NYC area. There are lots of towns but at best there are very few you fit into. You have to pay through the nose to fit in. That is why the white trash have it the best. They can still buy homes dirt cheap and live in their neighborhood where they best fit in.

  216. lisoosh says:

    Getaclue – I hear ya. I used to like Hillsborough too, nice sleepy town, comfy ranches on big lots in quiet streets, old farmhouses, nice rural vistas. Now is has turned into suburban hell full of the “up and coming”. Yeuch.
    Same thing happening in my neck of the woods.

  217. make money says:


    My super in Staten Island is a gardening genious. I give him 50% break on rent one month so that he can use the money to plant the BeefStake tomatoes. I love those with some fresh Mozzarella or my special own fresh goat chese.

  218. frank says:

    “$200 oil would break the back of the global economy,”

    No it will not, people will just stop driving big cars.

  219. GetAClueNJ says:


    There a foreclosure up the road from me on South Branch. There was an estate sale there a few weeks ago and now it looks like the grass hasn’t been cut in a month.

  220. Stu says:


    You make goat cheese yourself?

    The closest I come to making cheese is when I find a sippy cup hidden in my son’s bed that I was not aware was there. If it’s only a few days, I make sour cream. But after a week, it looks more like cottage cheese.

  221. Nicholas says:

    Been lurking for a while and just wanted to chime in that you guys are great. I’m buyer/seller in Maryland but the company I work for is based out of Piscataway, NJ.

    I haven’t been able to find a similar type blog for the Metro DC area as most are populated by good time to buy (GTTB) zombies.

    Keep up the good work. Back to lurking…

  222. kettle1 says:


    puree a bunch of habanero peppers(or similar very hot peppers)with an equal volume of water. Let stand overnight in the fridge. In the morning filter out the solids so that only the liquid is left (a strainer or a colander with a paper towel in the bottom works in a pinch). Press the remaining juice out of the solids. put this in a spray bottle and spray all of the plants in yor garden. Most insect and furry critters will not touch any of the plants after this. you must reapply after every rain, but will not effect the taste of the veggies.

    PS. wear gloves while making this and do not touch anything , throw the gloves directly into garbage.

  223. lisoosh says:

    ket – been reading a lot recently about a fall back in organic. Many organic farmers are switching back to more intensive methods.
    Also read a piece by someone suggesting that intensive farming in some ways is more “green” as more food can be produced in a smaller area and less resourses are used when bigger farms can organize their use of equipment.

  224. John says:

    It’s Amazin! Kozy Shack(R) Scores as the Official Pudding of the New York Mets Now, Every Day is Pudding Day at Shea

    HICKSVILLE, N.Y., June 26 /PRNewswire/ — Play ball! Kozy Shack(R), America’s #1 rice pudding maker, is teaming up with an amazing New York ball club, signing on as the official pudding of the New York Mets. The creamy treat, available in rich chocolate and original rice pudding flavors, will be on sale at Shea Stadium throughout the baseball season, adding a delicious natural choice to the menu of popular, classic stadium snacks, like hot dogs, pizza and peanuts.

  225. jam says:

    [197] A few. Not like in Europe by any means. I imagine they would be great for a person who justs needs to get a round town or lives in a city. The only problem then is the parking laws. In Europe you can park those things anywhere.

  226. kettle1 says:

    NJ gardening and ranching blog?

  227. jam says:

    Hey a good garden can yield some mighty good fresh salsa.

  228. Nom Deplume says:

    NJRE Gun, Scooter, and Farming Report

  229. Nom Deplume says:


    not to mention salmonella-free tomatos

  230. Nom Deplume says:


    that’s tomatoes.

    Just channeling Dan Quayle there for a moment.

  231. DINJ says:

    #229 Pudding is a great metaphor for the state of the Mets play.

  232. kettle1 says:


    you go organic and have a lower output but without the chemicals and nutrient run-off or go intensive and have the chemicals and nutrient run-off while being dependent on petroleum.

    there is no golden goose here….

  233. gryffindor says:

    Hillsborough is where my dad, an average person, bought an affordable home to start his family in 1980. It seems silly they are having a dilemma with availabilty of affordable housing given the gazillion homes they have thrown up since 1980. Who are they trying to protect from overdevelopment? Look around the town, it is already overdeveloped! Do they still talk about expanding the high school vs building another one?

    LOL to Lenar, we went to check out their townhouses in Edison last spring and they turned us away saying we weren’t on the exclusive list to preview and reserve the townhouses inside, but we could walk around outside. Now they e-mail my dad begging him to come back and view all he wants and please buy, but he’s decided he doesn’t want to live on that side of town anyway.

  234. BC Bob says:

    “Do you know any Beef EFT or way to play this besides options?”


    Knock down one of your multi’s and learn a new trade?

    Seriously, I look into it.

  235. skep-tic says:

    from the WSJ:

    “Justice Stevens, reading from the bench, took point-by-point issue with the sweeping holdings contained in the majority opinion.”

    this new habit of reading dissents from the bench by the liberal block of Justices is really childish

  236. Doyle says:

    Can anyone help out with an address / history on GSMLS Number: 2540785?


  237. SG says:

    From Economist,

    Well, what do you expect?

    A survey by the University of Michigan shows that inflation is expected to be over 5% in the next year, the highest reading since 1982. And expected inflation for the next five to ten years is 3.4%, the highest since 1995.

  238. JoeR says:

    BC – here’s the beef cam. Sometimes you get a glimpse of dutch girls tending to them.

  239. JoeR says:

    Actually, I just saw one relieving itself…

  240. skep-tic says:


    “well at 200K off another nice family will buy and move in.”


  241. BC Bob says:

    “Actually, I just saw one relieving itself…”


    A Dutch blonde?

  242. BC Bob says:

    “well at 200K off another nice family will buy and move in.”

    Now we’re talking!

  243. rhymingrealtor says:


    30 Forest Ave purchased in 2003 for 585,000


  244. skep-tic says:


    “bottom line is each person whether they are Jewish, Hindu, Catholic or WASP have only a few towns to choose from where they fit in from an age, ethnic, religion, social status and educational level.”

    fortunately, I have no plans to get chummy with neighbors and have no time to hang out with fellow townies

  245. schabadoo says:

    Everyone pre-purchasing winter oil/Natural gas?

    Anyone here have a wood stove?

    I have one but don’t use it much. I feel like I should be stocking up on firewood.

  246. Doyle says:

    Thanks Rhymin!

  247. Rich In NNJ says:

    Ridgewood FUTURE Comp Killer!


    Purchased: $1,105,000 12/1/2004

    MLS#: 2721648
    OLP: $1,275,000 5/30/2007
    Current LP: $1,040,000 6/26/2008

  248. John says:

    Actually, I don’t talk to any of my neighbors either, my street is like a Beneton commerical. But then again that is why my town is cheap. Mingling in my town is like mingling on the subway.

    My friend has a point abou the 200K off. If a few people have to sell and another nice couple moves in what is the difference to him, it is just paper money anyhow. People make it seem like we will have empty houses. Well maybe in the absolute worst neighborhood, but a four bedroom colonial on a flat one acre in short hills is always going to be occupied, even if at a lower price.

  249. grim says:

    I feel like I should be stocking up on firewood.

    Not a problem, just gut a foreclosure, scrap the copper, burn the framing.

  250. PGC says:

    Anyone here have a wood stove?

    My house has a real stone fireplace. I had to cut down a 100ft Oak tree as it was too close to the house (4 feet). The wood from the branches alone will see me through the winter.

    I need someone with a chainsaw mill to cut the trunk pieces into boards. If anyone has any contacts I would be grateful.

  251. skep-tic says:


    “My friend has a point abou the 200K off. If a few people have to sell and another nice couple moves in what is the difference to him, it is just paper money anyhow.”

    this is why I don’t see the housing downturn as wealth destruction. it is just redistribution

  252. bairen says:

    The Era of Entitlement is Over. It is being replaced with the “Era of Blame the speculators why isn’t the government doing something to help us” (news flash the gov and FED created this mess with a huge help from the heloc crowd.) Which will be followed quickly with the short lived Era of Lowered Expectations and winding up with the Era of Reality AKA the Era of Despair.

    This Doom and Gloom report is cheerfully brought to you by bairen. I do not have a media room, a McMansion, granite, or an SUV. I do have an LCD TV I bought on sale last year. And I refuse to purcase celebrity chef cookware. I’ll stick to my old school cast iron.

  253. BC Bob says:

    “June 26 (Bloomberg) — Yanping Cui, 57, says she invested in auction-rate bonds last December at the urging of a broker at UBS AG in Long Beach, California. The same month, UBS told one of the issuers of those securities, a New Hampshire student-loan agency, that the $330 billion market was in danger of failing.”

    “He said it’s very safe and as liquid as possible,” Cui said of the advice she received from UBS broker Brian Meehan. “I’m so angry. That’s my bloody money.” Meehan, now at Wells Fargo Investments in Newport Beach, declined to comment.”

  254. GetAClueNJ says:

    #238 gryffindor

    Same here, my parents moved there in 1983 when I was born and my father on one income as an electrician bought a nice townhouse. That same exact unit was for sale last year and sold for over $300k.

    Now I have a college degree and work in finance in the hedge fund world, and there’s no way in hell I could possibly afford to live in that same townhouse. That’s my reason as to why something is rotten when it comes to the price of houses.

  255. BC Bob says:

    “NAR site is a disaster — no press release, Proxy Errors, etc. None of the usual media even has more than a few headlines — WSJ, Bloomberg, AP, and NYT have nothing.”

    “Here’s what I pulled off of the Bloomberg terminal:”

    • Resales increased 2% to a 4.99 million annual rate (4.89 million pace in April)
    • Median existing house price dropped 6.3% from May 2007
    • Sales were down 16% versus May 200.
    • About one-third of total sales last month were “short sales” that reflected foreclosures or distressed properties;
    • Banks repossessed twice as many homes in May as in the same month last year;
    • Inventory of unsold homes at the end of May fell 1.4% to 4.49 million;
    • Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of loan applications to purchase homes fell last week to the lowest level in more than five years;

  256. John says:

    I actually think on a macro level there was no money lost on housing, just a redistribution. Person A bought a POS cape for 600K from Person B that is now worth 400K. That 200K was not lost, Person B still has it and he is not giving it back.

  257. bairen says:

    #258 BC

    Buyer beware!!!!!!

    How did people who were too lazy to read the prospectus/ and or dumb enough to buy ARS accumalate savings to begin with? Was the slighly higher yield worth the risk of default? Apparently not. I think Hansen soda and Panera’s got burnt with the ARS or MBS also.

  258. RentinginNJ says:

    $140 crude gets lifted

  259. jmacdaddio says:

    Car talk diversion here…

    Toyota FJ Cruiser or Nissan Xterra? Which has better cargo capacity? Which has more reliability? I never thought I’d go the SUV route however in the event I end up making tons of Home Depot runs, I’d like to be ready to pick one up.

    I have a short commute so gas mileage isn’t that critical. I’d buy late-model used and keep it for 15-20 years as a beater. Also it might come in handy once kettle’s apocalyptic meltdown scenario plays out.

  260. HEHEHE says:

    Many companies got burnt by the ARS because they put their cash holdings in them seeking the higher yield.

  261. Nurburgringer says:

    jmac – buy an ugly, rusty 10-15 yr old Chevy/Ford mid-size pickup for <$1000 and use that for Home Depot trips. My pop did this when he built an addition; sold it 2 years later for exactly what he bought it for.

  262. Jaw says:

    That $40 oil prediction finally came true…+/- $100.

  263. bairen says:

    #262 My bad

    Hansen with ARS. Panera’s with subprime.

    All Disclaimers. Not buy or sell recommendations. Just info I found on some investment sites.

  264. gary says:

    “Now the worry is that the European Central Bank may raise rates, which would be the same as another Fed cut,” said Peter Beutel, president of energy consultant Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut.

    Benchmark Rate

    The Federal Reserve yesterday left its benchmark interest rate at 2 percent and said “uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high” as energy and commodity prices continue to rise. Leaving the interest rate unchanged ended the most aggressive series of rate cuts in two decades.

    “Commodities are rallying because there’s a lack of confidence that the Fed will raise rates,” said Phil Flynn, a senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. “They didn’t raise rates yesterday and it doesn’t look like they will raise them soon. Their statement yesterday was too wishy-washy.”

    Bernanke is a f*cking idiot.

  265. Stu says:


    NJgator owns a 2004 Xterra that Nissan virtually paid us to buy. They had just released the 2005s with the 250HP engines and no one was touching the 2004s. The gas mileage blows, but the cargo space can hold a full sheet of plywood/sheet rock, etc. Of course, the roof rack is godsend and would put the Nissan ahead of the FJ Cruiser which I personally think is horrible looking anyway. We were able to strap 2 IKEA couches to the roof and left the cargo open for more Ikea cr*p a while back for example. Be warned, the ride in the Xterra was best described by my father as “primitive.” You feel bumps that you can’t even see. It does have the Pathfinder chassis, so it’s a true truck which means you can jump curbs and go off road with it.

    Reliability wise? We’ve got 45,000 miles, have suffered two blown rear brake light bulbs, and a leaky shock.

    Good luck and let me know what you end up getting.

  266. Clotpoll says:

    John (229)-

    “Kozy Shack(R), America’s #1 rice pudding maker, is teaming up with an amazing New York ball club, signing on as the official pudding of the New York Mets.”

    I thought Carlos Delgado was the official pudding of the New York Mets.

  267. chicagofinance says:

    The stock market is getting pimp-slapped….

  268. SG says:

    Seems like DOW has formed Head-Shoulder pattern pretty well today. I think 11K is going to be broken soon as well.

  269. Stu says:

    Nas down 3.25, Dow and S&P down > 2.5!!!

  270. chicagofinance says:

    SG Says:
    June 26th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
    Seems like DOW has formed Head-Shoulder pattern pretty well today. I think 11K is going to be broken soon as well.

    shail: I would care only if I had dandruff….

  271. Stu says:

    You should all join me on the dark side (short) of this market next time you hear all the cnbc pundits crowing about the bottom.

  272. BC Bob says:

    What’s the big deal? The dollar.

  273. SG says:

    I am no chartist or analysts, but this chart of DOW does not appear good.^dji;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

  274. BC Bob says:

    Stu [276],

    Been joined at your hip.

  275. Stu says:

    That $40 oil prediction finally came true…+/- $100.

    Hilarious Jaw!

    How about bi’s short term financial rebound call. Doofus!

  276. SG says:

    The earlier link got broken,

    DOW 5 year chart

  277. gryffindor says:

    GetAClueNJ – I have learned from this site is that people like you who are college educated and work in finance (especially a hedge fund!) are supposed to spend 7-8x your income to buy a home in prestigious Bergen county. Why would you still want to associate with the common folks in Hillsborough anyways?

    Selling his home in 1996 is one of the biggest regrets my dad has. Because he sold it at an affordable price back then and moved to a depressed housing market where prices never spiraled out of control, now he has moved back to NJ and can’t really afford anything normal here without feeling chumped.

  278. Jaw says:

    Is there a post where all of his calls are in one place? Trying to determine if he is the next Nostradamus.

  279. Clotpoll says:

    Reverse Nostradamus, Costanza Division.

  280. kettle1 says:

    Skeptic 256.

    of course it is wealth distribution. When the house goes from being worth 500K to being worth 300K then where did that missing value go? it was destroyed.

  281. PGC says:

    #281 SG

    Thats why I’m still calling Dow 9999

  282. njpatient says:

    219 stu

    where to you get your manure?

  283. njpatient says:

    221 john

    “You have to pay through the nose to fit in. ”

    Tell her, from me, “waaaaah.”

  284. Stu says:



    First week after their gardening stuff arrives in the Spring, they always run a sale on it for like $1 per 40 lb. bag. It’s not pure manure as it has a bit of dirt mixed in, but when you mix the contents into the garden, your nose tells you it’s black gold. I forget how the bags are labeled.

  285. ADA says:

    Dow down 300+ to 11500.

    In late 2006 we bought a SFH which was well under our means. My mortgage is now about 1.5x our combined salary. As I figured RE was about to tank, the plan was to put the excess cash into the market on a monthly basis instead of having everything tied up in the house.
    Now the only falling faster than the value of the house is the market.

  286. GetAClueNJ says:

    #282 gryffindor

    So that I don’t become a arrogant prick like those that do that.

  287. Stu says:

    NJREREPORT: Real Estate, Economics, and Politics, with some strollers, cheese making and manure mixed in.

  288. make money says:

    Speaking of nastradamus,

    How about that RBS analyst that forecasted this last week or so? The boy was blunt and correct.

    I can’t seem to find his article, wher edid he say the S&P was going?

  289. make money says:

    NJREREPORT: Real Estate, Economics, and Politics, with some strollers, cheese making and manure mixed in.

    you forgot the tomatoes!

  290. Zack says:

    #261 John

    Wealth is neither created nor destroyed, but transferred by one per to the other.

    Fundamental laws of Energy applies to wealth also.

  291. Zack says:


  292. Stu says:


    The true Nostradamus has been Nouriel Roubini. I always felt his predictions were too bearish, but it seems that he might have been right on target for the housing decline and total writedowns back in 2006. I love to watch him on CNBC arguing with all of the pompous optimists they interview. By far, he is always the most well prepared for the interview and provides the most accurate data to support his position. All the others seem to do is talk about the latest flavor of the month.

  293. BC Bob says:

    “Nas down 3.25, Dow and S&P down > 2.5!!!”

    Occasionally markets are rational.

    Benny, rev it up.

  294. Stu says:


    We still haven’t has our black ???day in this recession yet. Today is merely volatility. There will be an 8% drop day before the end of this credit crunch and my best guess would be some time in the fall when the realization that the consumer is tapped rears its ugly head. Either then or in February of 2009 when the Christmas retail season does not occur.

  295. John says:

    The dow is down the same amount of comments we have on this site.

  296. John says:

    I have an appointment to go low balling in Laurel Hollow Long Island this weekend. January 2010 is when I want to buy but I want to start early by annoying the sellers with my 999K bids on their 1.5 million dollar homes.

  297. kettle1 says:


    i meant destruction

  298. skep-tic says:


    “When the house goes from being worth 500K to being worth 300K then where did that missing value go? it was destroyed.”

    it is the amount saved by the next buyer of the house

  299. House Hunter says:

    correct me if I am wrong, but it looks like the Dow is down 19% since nov 2007 until today.
    If we go down 30% it will be 9,939
    If we go down 35% it will be 9,229
    If we go down 40% it will be 8,519

  300. kettle1 says:


    you forgot the guns…

    and how did that town meeting work out for you?

  301. BC Bob says:

    “January 2010 is when I want to buy”


    I hear Crazy Eddie commercials, refined for RE, will be making an encore in late 2009/2010.

  302. John says:

    skep-tic Says:
    Actually you would think it would be great for the economy!!! Person A sells for 600K to Person B who sells it to Person C for 400k. Sounds like person A and C are happy, so what if every third person is Person B.

    June 26th, 2008 at 3:27 pm

    “When the house goes from being worth 500K to being worth 300K then where did that missing value go? it was destroyed.”

    it is the amount saved by the next buyer of the house

  303. skep-tic says:


    “Person A sells for 600K to Person B who sells it to Person C for 400k. Sounds like person A and C are happy, so what if every third person is Person B.”

    John– agree completely. This is why the various proposed bailouts are so dumb. Why screw over the majority just to allow the minority to avoid a loss?

  304. BC Bob says:

    Person A may have bought in 2003/2004 and made zero, person B just lost 200k, person C has an illiquid asset priced at 400K. How has wealth been distributed?

  305. GetAClueNJ says:

    Who’s the one here always saying the Citi is going to go bust? Looks like Goldman has the same opinion.

  306. House Hunter says:

    to njpatient’s wife…they are now restricting use on propertyshark until 6pm..used to be 5pm..this is the message I received:
    “You have limited access between 3pm-6pm ET!”

  307. Pat says:

    Ummm, Person D had a job for five years that he wouldn’t have had without all the transactions?

  308. BC Bob says:

    Actually Person A may have lost $, the cost to carry, associated closing costs and RE transfer fee.

  309. House Hunter says:

    form #304…if we go down from the peak Nov 2007 number of 14,198

  310. BC Bob says:


    Person E may be hanging out, watching the comedy and let all price/recycle the asset to the bottom?

  311. make money says:

    IMB is now at 80cents a share. How long before FDIC steps in and why isn’t a newscamera in from of IndyMac bank asking it’s clients if they are going to do an old fashioned bank run or will they go down with the Titanic beacuse someone has dialed 911 and FDIC is on the way!!!

    Journalism in Albania is better then CNBC and Faux business!

  312. bairen Person D says:

    #312 Pat,

    You just described my last 2 jobs.

    Perhaps I should switch my handle to Person D.

  313. skep-tic says:

    Person F is reading this blog, practicing survival techniques, dumpster diving

  314. Laurie says:

    321..what about Ridgewood ??? The money in Fklyn Lakes skews too young (and obnoxious) and Wyckoff’s population of new Moms is too young. Mahwah is to blue collar ..Old Tappan? To Asian? Oh Oh..Allendale! There are some really nice homes for sale in the San Jacinto section of Allendale and you can walk to all the schools…glad we settled that!

  315. make money says:


    how about Person ZZ the actual speculator who sold to person A and then used some bloggers advise and has been sitting on Gold and out of USD.

    Wait a minute I think I see a black helicopter.

    Whew, it’s just some Arab looking to pick up another building with his oil money here on the upper east side.

  316. make money says:

    317 Nj Bear,

    You have to account for higher level of inflation in the past two decades.

  317. mark says:

    hey what about closter? asian,,, or what

  318. BC Bob says:

    make [321],

    I say he’s probably sitting on a beach sipping a martini, bought with euro’s?

  319. njrebear says:

    Can we con the sheiks to build a rotating bridge to the moon or something similar?

  320. John says:

    Will someone please ring the closing bell!!!

  321. John says:

    WOW all 30 DOW stocks closed down today.

    Alcoa Inc 35.52 -1.42 -3.84%
    AIG American International Group, Inc. 28.26 -1.48 -4.98% AXP American Express Company 39.06 -1.88 -4.59% BA Boeing Co. 68.60 -1.04 -1.49% BAC Bank of America Corporation 24.94 -1.67 -6.28%
    C Citigroup, Inc. 17.79 -1.06 -5.62% CAT Caterpillar Inc. 74.40 -2.18 -2.85% CVX Chevron Corp 98.13 -1.23 -1.24% DD E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company 43.14 -0.97 -2.20% DIS Walt Disney Company (The) (Holding Company) 31.67 -0.82 -2.52% GE General Electric Company 26.79 -1.20 -4.29% GM General Motors Corporation 11.57 -1.24 -9.68% HD The Home Depot, Inc. 24.81 -0.66 -2.60%
    HPQ Hewlett-Packard Co. 44.74 -0.86 -1.89% 6IBM International Business Machines 121.40 -3.18 -2.55% INTC Intel Corporation 21.73 -0.92 -4.06% JNJ Johnson & Johnson 64.63 -0.65 -1.00% 6JPM JP Morgan & Chase & Co 36.53 -1.38 -3.64% KO The Coca-Cola Company 53.61 -0.49 -0.91% MCD McDonald’s Corporation 56.75 -1.30 -2.24% MMM 3m Co 70.62 -1.96 -2.69% MRK Merck & Co., Inc. 36.23 -0.75 -2.03% MSFT Microsoft Corporation 27.95 -0.40 -1.40% PFE Pfizer Inc 17.25 -0.63 -3.51% PG The Procter & Gamble Company 62.56 -0.93 -1.46% T AT&T Inc. 33.53 -0.95 -2.74% UTX United Technologies Corporation 63.33 -2.69 -4.07% VZ Verizon Communications 34.52 -1.07 -3.01% WMT Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. 57.23 -0.89 -1.53% XOM Exxon Mobil Corp 87.07 -0.53 -0.61% 6/26/2008

  322. skep-tic says:

    from the WSJ

    Schumer Asks Regulators
    For Greater IndyMac Scrutiny
    June 26, 2008 3:37 p.m.

    Sen. Charles Schumer sent letters to federal regulators asking them to monitor more closely the financial health of IndyMac Bancorp Inc., a mortgage lender and thrift operator based in Pasadena, Calif.

    The New York Democrat wrote that he is “concerned that IndyMac’s financial deterioration poses significant risks to both taxpayers and borrowers and that the regulatory community may not be prepared to take measures that would help prevent the collapse of IndyMac or minimize the damage should such a failure occur.”

    The letters, drafts of which were viewed by The Wall Street Journal, were sent Tuesday to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of Thrift Supervision, which regulate IndyMac, as well as to the Federal Housing Finance Board.

  323. BC Bob says:

    “Will someone please ring the closing bell!!!”

    That was accomplished months and months ago.

  324. Stu says:

    Kettle1 (301):

    Ended up having to be on call for work so I couldn’t attend. The 2 million error in math made by the BOE was forgiven and town will face a 7.5% tax increase. What’s new in regal Montclair. Meanwhile, by looking at that BOE budget doc you linked to originally, it’s obvious that the majority of the BOE dollars goes to the administration and does not filter down to the students. They point out how we clearly pay 7% more per pupil than many of our peer school systems yet the administration costs 11.3% than that of our peers. Of course, left out of this equation is the number of students in these peer groups. Funky math to the rescue again. I did email the outgoing council members and incoming a copy of your blog entry though (fully credited to Kettle1).

    Hell of a market day eh? Definitely one of my top 10 gainers since the tech bubble. I’m in charge of the little guy tonight so we may have to celebrate at Friendly’s!

  325. John says:

    Sen. Charles Schumer sent letters to federal regulators asking them to monitor more closely the financial health of IndyMac Bancorp Inc., a mortgage lender and thrift operator based in Pasadena, Calif.

    The New York Democrat wrote that he is “concerned that IndyMac’s financial deterioration poses significant risks to both taxpayers and borrowers and that the regulatory community may not be prepared to take measures that would help prevent the collapse of IndyMac or minimize the damage should such a failure occur.”

  326. Clotpoll says:

    BC (309)-

    Hear, hear.

  327. Stu says:

    njrebear (317):

    “DOW 200 year trend.”

    Wish I was alive in 1935 ;)

  328. Jamey says:


    Fiddy drags out vintage Tubes. Quel obscure.

    (The joys of having music-obsessed, much older siblings.)

  329. alia says:

    171: i’d be interested, except we don’t have enough savings to afford to be a contributing member and still have enough disposable savings to handle life’s little curveballs. meantime, we participate in the local CSA, which helps. we’re a really young family, by nyc standards, and are lucky we don’t have debt.

    i grew up in central pa. blue ribbon school district and everything. beautiful place. very boring for a teenager.

  330. alia says:

    187: i asked the nice ppl at and they said plum trees can work in containers fairly well. (peaches… well, maybe, if i pruned them summer and winter)

    just got a plot in our brand new community garden. the longest term planting i’m comfortable doing there is maybe blueberry bushes.

  331. alia says:

    guns… eh… archery, now… as long as you’ve got trees, you’ve got ammunition. ;>

  332. kettle1 says:


    glad the blog was useful, enjoy friendlies. besides it would take a heck of a lot more then a blog to change their mind. it was a forgone conclusion that they would take the increase.

    I lived in west orange for a while and loved montclair, nice place to live…

  333. kettle1 says:


    supposedly, Goerge Washigton ( the original) wanted the colonial army to use bow and arrows as one of their primary weapons. At that point in time rifles were so inaccurate that for most people hitting anything was a matter of luck. he was over ruled by the vigorous dissent of some of his top commanders on the basis that they needed to “fight like a real army”

  334. BC Bob says:

    Bloomberg headline. Another since?

    “U.S. Stocks Tumble, Sending Dow to Worst June Since Depression”

  335. alia says:

    319, dumpster diving: we prefer to call it “neighborhood recycling”.

  336. NNJJEFF says:

    Can anyone with MLS access give me address for this rental #2822698. try to convince Mrs it’s NOT the time to buy…

  337. alia says:

    339, kettle: i’ve heard that a trained archer is just as accurate/lethal as a regular gun user. the problem is the years it takes to get an archer trained to that point. (but yum, those archery muscles!) guns level the playing field, as it were.

  338. alia says:

    last week i convinced dear husband to exit the stock market.

    i should get a raise. ;>

  339. BC Bob says:

    Benny, put up or shut up. Please come to the rescue of the world, raise rates now.

  340. John says:

    Four Bergen County Countrywide REOs!!!

    request info $242,900
    request info $393,900
    218193 HARRINGTON PARK 60 1ST ST ,
    request info $383,900
    239332 WESTWOOD 34 LAKE ST ,
    request info $255,900

  341. bairen says:

    Is Brigadoon crumbling? There are now 21 houses and townhomes for sale in Wesfield below 500k.

  342. Rich In NNJ says:



    Rented in ’07 & ’06 for $3,100, for $3,000 in ’05 & ’02

  343. kettle1 says:

    Anyone taking bets about how long it is until we have 1 or 2 airlines left that become nationalized ( all the way, not just the current kinda/sorta way they are now)

  344. BC Bob says:

    “When Central Bankers Clash, Stock Markets can Crash”

  345. jmacdaddio says:

    Native Americans who traded for guns with settlers quickly lost their archery skills, which came in handy for colonists when things got ugly. Actually most tribes weren’t very accurate with the bow and arrow – they relied on stealth and tracking to get so close to their prey that they couldn’t miss.

  346. njrebear says:

    I think so too :)

  347. kettle1 says:


    firearms can direct more firepower at a higher rate at a longer range then an archer can. But with all of that said a highly trained archer can be highly effective and deadly within a certain range. The key difference is that the “average” marksman will be more deadly then the “average” archer. As you said, archery takes a higher level of proficiency.

    On a side note, an apache or blackhawk helicopter can be brought down with a bow and arrow if you know their weaknesses

  348. Sean says:

    Anyone up for an investment recon excursions to Pyongyang?

  349. Nom Deplume says:

    [354] Kettle,

    “On a side note, an apache or blackhawk helicopter can be brought down with a bow and arrow if you know their weaknesses”

    I think I want you as my wingman when TSHTF.

  350. kettle1 says:

    I am going strong short on Pyongyang sean. i am out

  351. BC Bob says:

    “Financially troubled Lehman Brothers reportedly faces a new challenge – the threat of mass defections by staff who fear a major new round of layoffs.”

    “Unnamed Lehman executives view a sale of the bank as the main alternative to cutting loose as many as 5,000 of its 26,000 employees, according to CNBC.”

    “Already fear is spreading through the senior ranks of the investment bank: Worried bankers and traders have recently been making frantic calls to better capitalized banks, like Credit Suisse and others in hopes of landing jobs before the cuts come,” the network’s story says.

  352. Nom Deplume says:

    [348] Barien

    I can point to 6 houses that I looked at that dropped in price (though not below 500K) in the past month or so. Some are still overpriced IMHO (which may explain why they aren’t selling).

    But the last two agents I used tell me that prices aren’t dropping in westfield.

    (of course, Bi and S&P said there would be no more writedowns)

  353. BC Bob says:

    Buffett was asked on CNBC yesterday what he would do if he were Fed chairman…

    “I’d resign.”

  354. kettle1 says:


    dont know if i can help you , i am probably on the short list for when they send the black helicopters/ vans out. if i can avoid that then no problem.

  355. Clotpoll says:

    Sean (355)-

    “Anyone up for an investment recon excursions to Pyongyang?”

    Better pack a lot of Power Bars. I hear the rat dishes are not up to snuff in most of the restaurants.

  356. BC Bob says:


    Sometime last week, 3b asked you what % prices are off peak, in your area. You stated 20%. Did you mean closed sales or current asking?

    Didn’t mean to drag you out, from beneath the surface.

  357. HEHEHE says:

    “BC Bob Says:
    June 26th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
    Bloomberg headline. Another since?

    “U.S. Stocks Tumble, Sending Dow to Worst June Since Depression”

    Hahaha Bergabe and I ended up for the day:) Keep making my commodity stocks run there Benny-boy!

  358. PGC says:

    #330 Stu

    Congrats on the day, but don’t forget there’s a fine line between unrealized gains and realized losses.

  359. grim says:

    From Reuters:

    UPDATE 2-NY Fed extends $28.82 bln loan to JPMorgan for Bear

    The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said on Thursday that it has extended a $28.82 billion loan, slightly less than the $29 billion originally expected, to JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) for the acquisition of Bear Stearns.

    In March, in a highly unusual move, the Fed provided the financing for JPMorgan to acquire Bear Stearns in order to prevent Bear from going bankrupt and potentially dragging down the entire financial system.

    “Total credit extended by the New York Fed is lower than originally anticipated as a result of an extensive review of the portfolio,” the New York Fed said in a statement on its Web site.

    In addition, JPMorgan has extended a $1.15 billion loan to a Delaware limited liability company (LLC), the statement said. The LLC, which will be consolidated on the books of the New York Fed, will use the proceeds of the loans to finance the purchase of a portfolio of assets formerly owned by Bear Stearns Cos Inc, the statement said.

    The line of credit is backed by the $28.8 billion portfolio of bonds and other fixed-income products held by Bear Stearns before it collapsed in March.

  360. BC Bob says:


    Easy to lock in.

  361. PGC says:

    I had a chat with a BC Sheriff. He showed up looking for the former owner. He said aside from the number of notices they are serving, they are now doing forced evictions at a rate of 4 or 5 a week.

  362. bairen says:

    #361 Nom

    I’m seeing the same drops in Summit, New Providence, Berkeley Heights, Basking Ridge, and Warren. The “better towns” do not seem too immune to the bust. There are no plankton left to get the buying chain in motion.

  363. watergapnomad says:

    Anti-Semitism Rife on Yahoo Message Boards

    While the subprime mortgage crisis roils the market, a profusion of anti-Semitic rhetoric has exploded against companies like Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers Holdings on online message boards maintained by Yahoo.

    “The Jews at Goldman are responsible for high oil prices,” one user on a Yahoo message board for Goldman Sachs wrote recently. “Yeah, not one word from the media about how the greedy Jews have brought this whole financial mess on the world. Wonder why that is?” said another poster on a message board for Lehman Brothers Holdings.

    These comments and others like them have drawn the attention of the Anti-Defamation League and public relations officers from firms named on the message boards, who are approaching Yahoo about cleaning up the sites.

    “We don’t have any affiliation with the site,” a spokeswoman at Goldman Sachs, Andrea Raphael, said, adding that the firm has contacted Yahoo and asked that it remove the offensive comments from the boards.

    The Anti-Defamation League is also jumping into the fray, and has contacted Yahoo to look into the matter. “We are hopeful that when we get in touch with them, they will address the problem,” the associate director of civil rights, Steven Freeman, said.

    On the site, banks that are attacked also include Washington Mutual, with comments like, “No wonder the Germans hate Jews so much. Just for making a dime, they are willing to destroy and ruin the country which gives them shelter,” according to someone called sunfy8.

    A commenter calling himself hochithul said on a site for Goldman Sachs, “Jew banks will get destroyed by shorts,” referring to short sellers. “Jews stick together like mud and love to pat themselves on the back,” prudentman007 wrote on the same site. Lehman Brothers is also under attack, with someone named dontputsaltonmypepper noting, “Them Jews are sneaky bastards.”

  364. grim says:

    The “better towns” do not seem too immune to the bust. There are no plankton left to get the buying chain in motion.

    Witness the 6 single family houses for sale in Millburn under $500k.

  365. BC Bob says:

    Crudelow coming up. Long live Goldilocks.

  366. Clotpoll says:

    BC (365)-

    From the market peak, Spring ’05.

    Don’t worry about my subterranean time. I’m all Texas-hedged again…lots of different shiny-stuff plays, backstopped by an injudicious position in SDS.

  367. Clotpoll says:

    BC (365)-

    Now, to answer your question: closed sales.

  368. Clotpoll says:

    Also noticing 5-10% price reductions on million-dollar homes over the past 2-3 weeks. That’s a new development here.

    Damn! At some point, I may pick myself up one of these shiny toys.

    Long live Booyah!

  369. bairen says:

    #373 I hear ya.

    Has anyone noticed rents dropping also? There are now SFH for rent in New Providence below 2k a month. Rents seem to be down at least 5% in my development.

    So much for the demand for rentals will drive up the price theory. Another theory bites the dust. To be replaced with FB are slashing rent on their disinvestment (I mean investment) properties in the vain belief they can keep it together to the rebound. They fail to realize that housing recoveries are not V shaped. More like the escalators at the malls. You go down to the ground and have to walk along ways to catch the up one on the other side of the mall.

  370. bairen says:

    There also seems to be a lot of houses for rent and sale. The list sale price still tends to be 15 to 18 times annual listed rent. for the same house.

  371. bairen says:

    Has anyone heard of a solar inverter system? The house has solar panels but no storage battery. Any unused solar power created runs through the meter and goes out to the grid. When there isn’t enough solar energy to power the house, it draws from the grid. I never heard of it until yesterday. Saw an article on CNN where a family has cut their electricity bill to $28 a month. Of course the system cost 21k.

  372. bairen says:

    Talking to myself again.

    I used to do that sometimes when I was commuting to NYC on the train in the summer. It would keep people from sitting next to me.

  373. njpatient says:

    380 bairen

    I have heard of that.
    Sorry – would chat more but getting completely clobbered.

  374. willwork4beer says:

    381 bairen

    did you rock back and forth? I always did.

    works like a charm… ;)

  375. kettle1 says:

    slightly OT,

    I relearned a great lesson in humility over the weekend. My 4 yr old cat had a severe heart condition and over the weekend he died. there was nothing that could medically be done. SO i sat with the cat that i found as a bedragled 2 week old starving kitten and watched him pass away.
    The point is not that i was/ still am very sad, but that it once again reminded me that as much and as often as we all tend to believe that we are masters of our own little universe, we arent. It is very easy to lose sight of the bigger picture; that our little insulated worlds, as wealthy and prestigous as they may be, still exist on nothing more then the whim of the unpredictable universe we live in.
    So stop for a moment take a deep breath and consider that as intelligent/powerful/beautiful/wealthy/etc as we may ( or may not) be, and for all of the technology we may possess we are but a step removed from the field mouse, and still subject to the whims of the world around us.

  376. kettle1 says:


    yes i know quite a bit about solar systems. send me an email through grim and we can chat about it if you like. The system you described is very common

  377. bairen says:

    #383 willwork4beer,

    of course. gotta give the full performance

  378. willwork4beer says:

    386 bairen

    there you go. gotta love a gamer. ;)

  379. kettle1 says:


    solar cells produce DC voltage. the average home is wired for AC voltage and the appliances and other devices you use day to day run on AC. The inverter changes the DC current generated by the solar panels into AC current.
    The system you described is called grid tied. In a grid tied system you need to have an inverter and other equipment to convert the current to DC and to prevent the solar panels from electrifying power lines outside your home in the event of a power failure. If power fails ( the power from the power company) and your solar cells have a direct connection to the outside power lines then a lineman ( the guy who works on power lines) could be electrocuted by accident. it can also cause other various load problems for the power company. The other option is a battery backup system. In such a system the solar cells are tied to a battery bank in your house. the battery bank is then tied to a n inverter that distributes the power to the house.
    There are other variations as well.

  380. bairen says:

    #385 kettle

    Sorry about your cat.

    I’ll send an email to grim. Just curious about the solar power system. Still renting for at least another year so no rush.

    If we stay in NJ I want to buy in a place like Summit or Westfield so I can walk to a downtown or go for a place in Warren and get off the grid and have a veg garden and some fruit trees. Anything in between (mcmansions in developments) I want to avoid .

  381. kettle1 says:

    thanks bairen,

    not trying to depress people, just thought i would share one of the “ah ha” moments, those brief flashes of reality

  382. bairen says:


    I hear you. My son had a seizure when he was one from a fever spike. I’ve never been more scared and felt so useless watching his eyes rollback as he went into convulsions.

  383. njpatient says:


    sorry about the kitty

    Our cat and dog both died last year. The Little Patients are still recovering. So are mom and dad.

  384. kettle1 says:


    the consideration with solar is it is a long term investment. To go off grid could easily cost 70 – 100K. There are many, many factors involved, that can simplify or complicate the issue and you must really consider what sort of life style changes you are willing to make as off grid living usually requires some adjustments unless money really is of no importance.

  385. njpatient says:

    frankly, ON grid living is beginning to require some adjustments.

  386. kettle1 says:

    thanks NJP,

    Its a very hard thing, but the experience of having them in your life is more then worth it. There are pets, and then there are animals that are family members. If you are lucky enough to have an animal that is a family member it is worth every moment of sadness at losing them.

  387. kettle1 says:


    if you want e-mail me as well and we can have a little group chat about solar on/off grid

  388. kettle1 says:

    oh and NJP<

    i am running your schedule again! hooray, who needs to sleep

  389. kettle1 says:

    and yes i do actually work, currently taking a little dinner brake

  390. bairen says:

    #393 wow,

    That’s a lot more then i thought it would cost. I thought 25k to 30k or so.

  391. kettle1 says:


    withhold judgement until i e-mail you back and can break it down for you. there are a number of factors involved which are situational

  392. kettle1 says:


    sorry about your fuzzy family members, 2 that close together would be devastating

    the NJ pet grief, guns, and farming blog

  393. kettle1 says:


    check this house out

    this will give you a feel for grid connected that starts to come close to some off grid aspects

  394. still_looking says:

    385, sorry ket…

    I know the feeling all too well… my 18 yr old ‘good friend’ who sat with me as I studied, brought me the occasional dead offering, took a gamble and dragged her 4 water logged kittens out of the rain and into our house 18 yrs ago is sick and dying – thankfully not in pain but just dying.

    It’s hard.

    Live life to its fullest. In my world (emergency medicine) I see folks who come in “just not feeling right” and end up having to tell them news that isn’t good.

    It shaves years off your life carrying that responsibility/burden. You don’t get used to it or better at it. You just do it.

    I’m sorry for your loss…the silver lining is exactly that: the realization that a lot of this is beyond our control.

    Live life to its fullest, because you don’t know what’s in the cards for you.

    /philosophic rant off


  395. kettle1 says:

    thank you SL

    my thoughts are with you and your “friend” as well. Do you have the “baby” friends still or did they go to other homes?

  396. kettle1 says:


    My guy had advanced CHF and a thrown clot to the lungs is what most likely got him.

  397. bairen says:

    #402 kettle1

    Thanks for the link. Very informative. if we move to Warren that’s what I was imagining doing.

  398. All Hype says:

    A woman was murdered at the YMCA around the corner from my house, Yikes!

  399. Pat says:

    I don’t know what’s going to happen (to my husband) when our George goes.

    He’s nearly ten, and I’ve never mentioned this, but that cat hates kids. He sits in the kitchen window and stares at the neighborhood kids. When they ride by on the sidewalk, he bashes the glass and mews that low growl mew.

    He has bald spots, and knocks the lid off of the crock pot and fishes in there while I’m at work. He weighs more than 20 lbs, and sits on my lap and watches the cursor. My shyster sister told me to dump him when I got pregnant because he makes so much orange hair.

    But he saved my little girl when she was 5 weeks old.

    One day, I was alone and exhausted. Up every 3 hours, I just couldn’t stop myself -I fell asleep on the couch with the baby upstairs in the crib. George jumped right on my C-section. Then he ran to his food bowl. I could’ve killed him, and was chasing him, screaming. But he kept going up the steps. Half way up, I heard her. George ran right to the crib and bawled. Her head was stuck down under the bolster in the corner on the side of the mattress.

  400. All Hype says:

    So out of the blue today, I found out that my company is closing my office in February. I gotta go find a new job in the middle of this lousy, lousy economy.

    In a word, Shit….

    On the bright side, I am getting a great severence package.

  401. kettle1 says:


    NJ has some of the best subsidies/rebates for solar….. BUT the money for these has been cut and there is already a 1 year + wait to get the money for people who have already installed and applied for the money. The rebates are pretty much dead. However if you agree with my outlook on energy then the payback will end up being much less the 20 years. FYI the panel have a life span of about 40 years

  402. NJFinance says:

    If anyone has access to could you give me the address and any info on prop ID 18949111?


  403. kettle1 says:


    WOW, I used to workout there in the evenings when i lived in west orange. I never figured that sort of thing would go down there , i thought it was pretty nice in general. Has it gone down hill lately or is this a fluke incident?

  404. All Hype says:


    This is the new facility for families and children on Glen Ridge Avenue, behind the Lackawanna Plaza. It just opened in october. He ran down North Willow Street, where I live. The cops were all ove the place when I got home.

  405. bairen says:


    We’re probably 2 years from doing anything. Would not be surprised to see big fed rebates by then.

    I think it would be worth the cost even without the rebate. Energy costs will most likely continue to increase, while setting up a solar system most of your costs would be fixed at the set up stage.

    Plus as a bonus it will give me an air of superiority (even if I don’t move to Brigadoon)

  406. RentinginNJ says:


    Sorry for your loss.

    Are you in the solar/energy industry?

  407. kettle1 says:


    Chemical engineer by education. I have spent a lot of time designing the house i would like to build in a few years and am somewhat anal on research. So i am not an expert, but have made a point to know as much as possible before sinking a substantial amount of money into it.

  408. NNJ says:

    All Hype, sorry for your company closing. What is your background, I may be able to help, you can get my email from grim.

  409. kettle1 says:

    I plan to build Off grid, or possible refinish an older house to go off grid

  410. BC Bob says:


    I am sincerely sorry about your cat. We had to put 2 to sleep. My fav was named Flutie, he was the best little man in the house. You can’t comprehend how someone feels about this unless you have had the same experience.

  411. PGC says:

    #414 Barian

    I think the NJ State rebates run out very early in the year. This means that at the start of the fiscal year there is a rush of applications left over from the previous year.

    My friend looked into it and is deciding to go with a turbine as there are still rebates available for wind. He is out in Sussex county so he has the land and the wind rolling off the nearby hills and farmland.

  412. BC Bob says:

    All Hype,

    What’s your field?

  413. Hard Place says:

    Anybody know if the search function works properly? You know the Technorati search box. I’m trying to search some old post and I can’t get any hits.

  414. All Hype says:

    NNJ and BC Bob:

    I work in Pharma. I think I will be ok from now until the end of the year. I have a lot of contacts in other drug companies who were my former co-workers so I will be able to find a job. I appreciate your concern. If I find that other companies are not hiring at the start of next year, I will certainly put the call out for help.

  415. bairen says:

    #420 PGC,


    Tonight’s thread is too interesting. Keeps taking me away from studying Chinese.

  416. BC Bob says:

    Another commodity to pin on the #ss of Mr Speculator;

    “Coffee at highest in 3 months on supply concerns”

    “Global coffee demand has been outstripping production for several years, and 2008 year-end stock levels are expected to fall to the lowest in 48 years — 12.4 million bags — according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. One bag contains 60 kilograms of coffee.”

    “There is an underlying situation of tight supply, demand,” said José Sette, head of operations at the London-based International Coffee Organization. “Any supply-side shock will really have a strong effect on prices, which is why, when you get this cold frost moving into Brazil, people get nervous.”

  417. NNJ says:

    All Hype, good for you. Hope it works out. My Company does recruiting as well thus the shout-out.

  418. kettle1 says:

    All hype,

    can i ask what aspect of it you are in?

  419. Sybarite says:

    All hype; I’m also curious.

  420. kettle1 says:


    preping for the chinese buyout? ;)

  421. kettle1 says:

    regarding NJ solar rebates

    In December 2007, New Jersey’s Board of Public Utilities (BPU) announced that the state would be suspending its solar rebate program—one of the nation’s most vigorous—and replacing it with one based on solar renewable energy certificates (RECs),

  422. bairen says:


    sort of. plus wife is a native speaker and my mother-in-law is visiting for a few months and speaks zero English.

    I’m trying to move from Elementary level to Intermediate by the end of this year and become functional next year.

  423. Nom Deplume says:

    All Hype,

    The Spouse DePlume works in Pharma and is very well connected. Drop a CV to

  424. Pat says:

    Hype, my husband just walked by and said Baxter is hiring if you can do Cherry Hill for a while.

  425. All Hype says:

    Kettle1 and Sybarite:

    I do drug development. I run the human clinical trials for drug registration and approvals.

    I work in the field of Immunology.

    If anyone is looking for really good Senior and Junior Clinical Research Associates, I know a bunch.

  426. Pat says:

    One of the process mftg supervisors worked with my husband at his current pharm.

  427. All Hype says:


    I will keep you in mind and tell my co-workers about this. Thanks for the shout out.

    It was pretty funny getting calls from head hunters literally 10 minutes after the meeting with upper management. I had a co-worker call from Australia 15 minutes after the meeting.

    Bad news travels fast!

  428. All Hype says:


    I will let everyone know at work about this. All my friends at work are going to work together to help find jobs for one another.

  429. Pat says:

    Hype, we’re going to MD soon. My husband works for a small R&D company that needs somebody. Good job. But it’s in MD. Any interest? E-mail JB if you’d consider moving, and I’ll send the link.

  430. Nom Deplume says:

    [389] Barien,

    FWIW (and in the interest of full disclosure, I have not spent a lot of time in either place), there is far less ‘attitude’ in Westfield than in Summit. Westfielders seem pretty nice; I haven’t yet met a summit resident I didn’t want to punch (incl. the women). I will probably end up in Westfield as it is convenient for our commutes and is pretty kid-friendly, despite the obscene taxes.

    Some of my colleagues live in Warren and they love having the space and somewhat lower taxes.

  431. All Hype says:


    Thanks for the contact. I will send them an email tomorrow.

  432. still_looking says:

    All Hype,

    Call me!!


  433. kettle1 says:

    The NJ Farming, Survivalist, Stroller, Pet, Employment Report


  434. Pat says:

    Like I always say, thank heavens nobody reads this blog but a couple of us.

    Can you imagine???

  435. sas says:

    Citibank gone.

    Washington Mutual gone.

    I told you so ;)


  436. njpatient says:

    402 ket

    I’ve been jealously visiting that solarhouse site for several years now – pretty damn cool.

  437. sas says:

    NJ gas prices $4.70 come Aug.

    SUV owners… oatmeal!


  438. bairen says:

    #440 Nom,

    Thanks for the info. We’re planning on spending some afternoons in both Summit and Westfield trying to get a feel for each.

    My wife also likes Warren a lot, but if we move their I do not want to work in JC or NYC.

  439. BC Bob says:

    All Hype,

    My best friend. If you want me to forward your resume, let me know.

    Nov. 26 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — appointed—– as Executive Vice President, Marketing & Sales, responsible for coordinating the global product launch and marketing activities for —- drug candidates.—– who has served as a consultant to —– since 2006, was recently Vice President, Sales & Marketing, Virology at —– Inc. His areas of expertise include hepatology, HIV and cytomegalovirus for transplant patients. —- was responsible for directing the development and implementation of marketing and sales plans for —– US hepatology franchise, including the global launch of Pegasys(R) and Copegus(R) for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C infection.

  440. Sybarite says:

    What kind of mileage does an M5 get…

  441. sas says:

    hydrid owners…

    your cool now, but as soon as you need a repaair or a new car battery. Boom, there goes any savings you just made over better gas milage. To come… oatmeal.


  442. Nom Deplume says:

    [441] Hype,

    I sent her an email to see if she knows of anyone at her co. or any past co. that would want to field CVs. She has been at major companies between here and DC, and works periodically for PHarma (the trade assn) so she has a pretty thick rolodex (do people still say that?)

    That said, I would not want to eat NNJ’s lunch so let’s see what Spouse DePlume comes back with.

  443. bairen says:

    #451 SAS

    which flavor of oatmeal? i like mine with carmelized apple or pear.

  444. njpatient says:

    403 still looking

    “You don’t get used to it”

    I regularly pray that I will receive care from medical personnel who don’t get used to it. I couldn’t work in medicine because I know that I would never get used to it, and I couldn’t be able to handle it very well. I’m glad for folks like you in that profession.

  445. sas says:

    “What kind of mileage does an M5 get”

    not very good.

    Thats why I ride my bike alot & my POS car (Corolla)


  446. sas says:

    “i like mine with carmelized apple or pear”

    hey, thats a good idea.


  447. BC Bob says:


    Missed you at the GTG. Next time?

  448. sas says:

    yup, I’ve been out of town for a few weeks.
    back & forth btw here & DC.

    I tend to get tired alot quicker these days.


  449. kettle1 says:


    I imagine that if you looked at the stats from this web site you might be surprised how many people, and who looks at this blog. I do not know my self but would bewilling to guess that it has attracted at least occasional high level attention.

    Grim, any comments on this?

  450. dblko says:

    bairen [432]

    Learning Chinese:
    Similar family situation here. Check out for lessons you can download to a mp3 player. I often listen to this stuff on the train. They have intermediate and advanced levels too.

  451. sas says:

    ALso, I’ve been called to court as a witness.

    a bloke I know is in hot water with one of the govt agencies.


  452. njrebear says:

    NZ halfway to recession – GDP figures

    The economy shrank by 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2008

  453. bairen says:


    Chinesepod is my main source. i supplement with some cartoons and Korean TV series dubbed in Mandarin. I think the Korean series have much better English subtitles then what I’ve seen from Hong Kong and Taiwan.

  454. Pat says:

    Oops. Sorry, Kettle, I forgot my /sarcasm.

  455. was_looking says:

    Trying to squeak by…

    52 Pittsford Way, New Providence
    Sell date: 08/01/05
    Sale price: 629,000

    List Date: 04/21/2008
    OLP: $639,000
    DOM: 66

  456. Pat says:

    I know very well some of those who read here, and why.

    If I weren’t giving my notice at work tomorrow, I wouldn’t have been able to ask Hype if he or any immunization friends were interested in MD.

  457. kettle1 says:

    how about a little more doom and gloom?

    10 of the Most Important Economic Events of the Last 10 Years:

  458. Pat says:

    Oops, is Hype a she? I forget.

  459. still_looking says:

    408 Pat. OMIGOD… I love the story… I *know* that feeling… dead tired, falling asleep… just a momentary lapse… What a treasure you have in a cat that watches over your child like it’s his!!

    454 njp… thanks… I know that the vast majority of us suffer with this… we often wear the grief of our patients and their families…. I find new wellsprings of compassion every working day.

    And I could tell you stories that would curl your hair.


  460. kettle1 says:

    thanks everyone for the thoughts regarding my kitten

  461. still_looking says:

    469, no… He is a red blooded manly man!
    :-) And my “little brother” from college!!

    Friends since 1985!


  462. Pat says:

    I graduated from PSU in 85.

    I was just trying to be PC, because I know you’re a female, and you two seem to be friends. Hype always seemed like a male.

  463. All Hype says:


    Thanks for the compliment!

  464. bairen says:

    #464 & 468 Kettle

    It’s much more fun to blame speculators. If the talking heads and politicians actually used facts, we would not be reshuffling the chairs on the Hindenberg and would have had a rational, effective energy and infrastructure policy decades ago.

  465. dblko says:

    [463] bairen

    Looks like we are doing the same. So far I’ve been sticking to dramas from Taiwan on youtube. Like “Devil Besides You”.

  466. bairen says:

    #477 dbko

    Have you seen a Prince turned frog? (Taiwan)
    I actually have Devil Beside you.

    Also Full House from Korea dubbed in mandarin is pretty good.

  467. willwork4beer says:


    Here’s a Lambertville Comp Killer

    MLS# 2479981

    SLD 02/23/06 400,000

    OLP 01/23/08 405,000

    U/C 06/11/08

    SLD 06/24/08 365,000

  468. BC Bob says:

    “10 of the Most Important Economic Events of the Last 10 Years:”


    Bogus, they completely missed # 1. Think about it, back tomorrow.

  469. PGC says:

    #451 SAS
    Don’t get me started. OK then

    The CVT transmission has SEVEN moving parts, what the cost to replace your Torque Converter or Planery gearset.
    Whats the cost to get a new starter motor or alternator.
    Do you get 80K miles on your brakes.

    As for the batteries. There reports from the user base are that the batteris are holding. There are classic Prius out there going strong on 10yr old batteries. The are cars with 250,000 miles. Taxi fleets love them for reliabiliy. The only problem with the battery is to remember, “Don’t cut the big orange wire”

  470. Hobokenite says:


    My condolences on the loss of your cat.

  471. bairen says:

    Pat, That’s the series. The guy’s name is “Rain” he’s now some huge singer in Korea.

  472. Pat says:

    Hard Place, did you find what you were looking for? If you give me a specific phrase, I might be able to help.

  473. Confused In NJ says:

    (CBS) A new energy report predicts $200-a-barrel oil in as short a time as two years. If that happens, gas would likely go up to $7 a gallon – and that would have an enormous impact on the way Americans live

    Corzine will have to add a “Free Gas For Life Benefit”, to his Public Sector supporters retiree benefits.

  474. lisoosh says:

    ket – sorry about your cat. We lost our dog (12+years) last December. It is really hard.

    still – hope I get to meet you sometime.

    Hype = sorry about the job. I don’t have any Pharma connections whatsoever but it seems plenty of people here have got you covered. Good luck.

  475. verypatientwife says:

    HouseHunter – thanks for the update on propertyshark.

  476. njpatient says:

    476 Bare N

    “would have had a rational, effective energy and infrastructure policy decades ago”

    It’s effing breathtaking.

  477. njpatient says:


    Meh – we’ll get a new thread when grim wakes up in a couple of hours.

  478. njpatient says:

    474 Pat

    Funny – I thought the same thing!

  479. njpatient says:

    Couldn’t quite make it to 500

  480. njpatient says:

    500 or bust!

  481. kettle1 says:

    500 eh?

  482. kettle1 says:

    how many

  483. kettle1 says:


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