Preliminary June sales and inventory data for Northern New Jersey (GSMLS) is in. Please note that this data is subject to revision.
The first graph plots the unadjusted sales data (closed sales) for the counties listed. Please note the lower bound of the graph, it is set to 500, not to zero. I do this to emphasize the seasonal nature of the Northern NJ market.
(click to enlarge)
The second graph is another view at the sales data for the full year. Please note that this graph does cross at zero.
(click to enlarge)
The third graph displays only June sales, 2001 to 2008 YOY.
(click to enlarge)
The fourth graph displays an overlay of Sales and Inventory from 2003 to 2007.
(click to enlarge)
The fifth graph displays the year over year change in inventory on a month by month basis.
(click to enlarge)
The sixth graph displays the year over year change in sales on a month by month basis.
(click to enlarge)
The last graph displays the absorption rate (not seasonally adjusted), in months:
(click to enlarge)
Bonus Graphs!
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)
From Bloomberg:
Fannie, Freddie May Record More Losses, Ofheo Says
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may need to record more writedowns after they expanded their purchases of non-guaranteed subprime and Alt-A mortgage securities just as other investors fled to safer investments, their regulator said.
The value of $217 billion of the so-called non-agency securities is falling as other financial firms write down their holdings, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said in its annual mortgage market report. Privately issued securities backed by subprime mortgages made up 9.2 percent of the companies’ combined portfolio, while Alt-A represented about 5.8 percent, Ofheo said.
By investing “heavily” in private-label securities in 2004 and 2005, the companies “significantly increased their exposure to fair value losses from changes in market prices,” Ofheo said. Structured investment vehicles and securities firms, battered by $452 billion in asset writedowns and credit losses, were invested in similar securities and have contributed to the price swings that may lead to more losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under generally accepted accounting principles.
“To the extent that those institutions recognize fair value losses on their private-label portfolios under GAAP, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may have to do so as well,” the Washington-based regulator wrote in the report.
From the WSJ:
Fannie, Freddie Books Under Scrutiny
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
July 22, 2008 4:29 a.m.
Bank examiners from the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency are looking at the books of mortgage investors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a person familiar with the situation said.
The examiners are working with the two companies’ main regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, or Ofheo, this person said. This joint effort to assess the financial condition of the two government-sponsored companies was first reported by the New York Times Web site late Monday.
Fannie and Freddie face sizable losses as defaults increase and home prices fall. That has caused a plunge in their share prices over the past few weeks, though the shares have recovered somewhat in recent days. Ofheo has said that the companies’ capital remains above their regulatory minimums.
In light of the recent market turmoil, increased sharing of information among regulators is “prudent,” Ofheo Director James Lockhart said in a statement late Monday.
From Reuters:
NY governor sees Wall Street bonus cuts
Wall Street banks and brokerages may cut bonuses for their highly-paid workers by some 20 percent this year, New York Gov. David Paterson said on Monday, estimating that each 10 percent reduction in bonus pay costs the state $350 million in tax revenues.
At a news conference, the Democratic governor mocked economists who predict that the country will avoid a recession and resume economic growth next year.
“This has finally confirmed to me that flying saucers have landed and that people from outer space are in our midst, influencing policy,” he said.
Predicting the state could lose an estimated $1.7 billion from slumping profits for Wall Street’s financial firms, he forecast severe state budget cuts.
“The reality is that there is a tremendous effect that income taxes, property taxes, rising fuel prices, rising food prices and all of the debt that the state has undergone is going to have in terms of our governance,” Paterson said.
From the IHT:
Fannie, Freddie spent millions on lobbying
For years, mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac tenaciously worked to nurture, and then protect, their financial empires by invoking the political sacred cow of homeownership and fielding an army of lobbyists, power brokers and political contributors.
New attention is being focused on the bruised mortgage companies as the U.S. administration presses its rescue plan to Congress. Some lawmakers have challenged the plan’s open-ended nature and expressed fears of a potential big taxpayer bailout in an election year.
Over the past decade, both Fannie and Freddie made the list of Washington’s top 20 lobbying spenders. They spent a combined $170 million to cultivate allies during that period, a bit less than the American Medical Association and a bit more than General Electric. At the same time, their executives have consistently led the mortgage-banking sector in campaign giving to members of Congress, contributing a combined $16.2 million since 1997.
…
Fannie and Freddie have long been distinguished by their outsized influence. They spend heavily on lobbying and hire liberally from Capitol Hill’s revolving door and their executives give top dollar to political campaigns. They’ve also funneled contributions into select charities and think tanks.
“They have always understood that the political risk was huge for them, and they put millions of dollars into using contributions, jobs and consulting contracts to stay in the good graces of people in power,” says Wright Andrews, a veteran banking lobbyist. “They had both parties — and particularly the Democrats — under incredible control.”
From the Washington Post:
Congress Is Set to Limit Down-Payment Assistance
Mortgage programs that helped nearly 79,000 people buy homes using government-insured loans last year would be eliminated as part of a broader housing package that Congress expects to pass this week, key lawmakers said.
Under these programs, nonprofit groups provide buyers with money for down payments. Home sellers then reimburse the organizations and pay an administrative fee. More than half a million people — including many first-time home buyers, minorities and single mothers — have bought homes this way in the past decade using loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration.
But the FHA said seller-funded down payments present the single biggest challenge to its solvency. Borrowers who take part in these arrangements go to foreclosure at nearly three times the rate of borrowers who put their own money down, according to the agency.
NNJJEFF (Previous Thread 287),
SOLD:
185 E PALISADE AVE $170,000 12/10/1998
185 E PALISADE AVE $285,000 9/3/2002
2742597 (Expired / Ownership: Private)
ACT 185 E PALISADE AVE $515,555 10/19/2007
PCH 185 E PALISADE AVE $490,000 3/10/2008
EXP 185 E PALISADE AVE $490,000 4/20/2008
2816134 (Ownership: Bank)
ACT 185 E PALISADE AVE $439,000 4/20/2008
PCH 185 E PALISADE AVE $399,999 6/21/2008
PCH 185 E PALISADE AVE $399,990 6/21/2008
Tax Records: (no lis pendens)
Deed $285,000 8/30/2002
Mortgage $143,000 8/30/2002
Mortgage $170,000 7/22/2004 (looks like refi w/equity extraction)
grim (2)-
“The examiners are working with the two companies’ main regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, or Ofheo, this person said. This joint effort to assess the financial condition of the two government-sponsored companies was first reported by the New York Times Web site late Monday.”
I’m sure the OFHEO report- when released- will trigger a massive rally in FNM and FRE.
Not.
Inventory is actually down year over year for the first time in 3 years. The market has clearly bottomed. I expect prices to rise significantly from now till the end of the year.
/sarcasm
Any thoughts on why this happened? Have people finally realized that the real estate market is in terrible shape and deciding not to list their homes? Are more people doing FSOB?
From MarketWatch:
Wachovia slashes dividend, to shut unit after $8.9 bln loss
Wachovia said it lost $8.86 billion, or $4.20 a share, in the second quarter, hurt by a $6.1 billion impairment charge on declining market valuations and asset values. It’s reducing the quarterly common stock dividend to five cents per share, which will conserve approximately $700 million of capital per quarter, and it is exiting the General Bank wholesale mortgage origination channel. “As we consider the company’s position, it is clearly prudent and necessary to further reduce our common dividend,” said CEO Robert Steel. On an adjusted basis, it lost $1.27 a share; analysts polled by FactSet Research had expected a loss of 71 cents a share.
Any thoughts on why this happened?
I blame the media for scaring home sellers into thinking it is a bad time to sell.
Sellers sidelined?
Pent-up supply?
Wachovia just farted in the middle of the party.
Real Estate market terrible? Depends on who you ask. For instance, cousins who are in their mid 40’s and bought their houses in the 1990’s think that the market will quickly rebound and their house values will go to the moon! Also, I hear variations of this:
“With all the foreclosures on the market, now is a great time to buy while prices are down.”
I have been rereading some of last week’s articles regarding the nationalization of Freddie and Fannie. Once they got that capital infusion, the talk sort of disappeared. But they need so much more capital, are we just forestalling the inevitable? I read:
Mish 7/8 We’re all homeowners now, nationalization unavoidable
and Washington Post – Sabastian Mullaby 7/14.
Mullaby – “Paulson made it clear last night that he favors a minority stake. But from a purely financial perspective, it would be better to buy the whole caboodle. If the government is going to supply a rescue, why share the upside? The worry about adding to the federal debt turns out to be a digression. Although Freddie and Fannie owe an astronomical amount, they are owed a roughly similar amount.”
“The net effect of nationalization on the federal debt would be modest.”
Stockholders and the public lose but the bond holders would come out okay is the understanding I get.
I hate to discuss the socialization of the housing market but from what I am reading the capital requirements are just too huge.
We are going to need to face reality here sooner or later and stop pretending that everything is hunky dorey. Is this where we are headed in the long run? Opinions?
“For instance, cousins who are in their mid 40’s and bought their houses in the 1990’s think that the market will quickly rebound and their house values will go to the moon!”
TBW [12],
One stands where they sit.
That’s fantastic. I bought my first shack in 1985. Bought and sold from then until 9/2005. Now flat. I feel that the market is in the midst of a rapid decline then flat for many years. I hope your cousins aren’t counting on this moon shot for retirement.
From Bloomberg:
Wachovia Has Record $8.9 Billion Loss, Cuts Dividend
Wachovia Corp., the U.S. bank that hired Treasury Undersecretary Robert Steel as chief executive officer two weeks ago, reported a record quarterly loss of $8.9 billion and cut the dividend by 87 percent. The stock fell as much as 12 percent in early New York trading.
…
The writedown and second dividend reduction in three months reflect Steel’s response to setbacks including the Golden West Financial Corp. acquisition in 2006, which cost former CEO Kennedy Thompson his job after eight years. Wachovia has dropped more than 75 percent in New York Stock Exchange composite trading since it spent $24 billion two years ago to buy Golden West just as house prices were peaking.
…
The second-quarter loss marks the first time Wachovia has posted consecutive losses in at least 20 years, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Wachovia’s report follows the release of better- than-estimated quarterly results at JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co.
…
Declining house prices in California and Florida, which account for about 70 percent of Golden West’s $121 billion of loans, have left 14 percent of the bank’s option-ARM customers with zero or negative equity in their homes. Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Edward Najarian estimated on July 9 that losses from the loans would total about $18 billion over four years, double those previously estimated by Wachovia.
Reverse tax appeals. School districts set not only property tax rates but also assessments. Legal in NJ.
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/home_top_stories/20080722_Pa__s_reverse_tax-appeal_tangle.html
“July 21 (Bloomberg) — Investors worldwide are betting more than $1 trillion on a collapse in stock prices.”
“Managers from William Ackman to Jim Rogers made a total of at least $1.4 billion in July with wagers against U.S. mortgage financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, data compiled by Bloomberg as of last week show. Harbinger Capital Partners staked $665 million that U.K. mortgage lender HBOS Plc would drop and Sao Paulo-based hedge-fund manager Francisco Meirelles de Andrade’s short selling of Cia. Vale do Rio Doce is also paying off.”
“Short selling helps markets become more efficient,” said Dallas-based David Tice, 53, founder and manager of the Prudent Bear Fund. “Short selling is here to stay.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aNDnqybULZdo&refer=home
BC Bob: Retirement, college, etc
These cousins (I hate to say it) are the typical Chevy Tahoe, Granite Counters, busy kid schedules, and so forth families..
Both families put massive additions on their houses which was paid for with the equity they had…and then my wife and I get lectured that “In a few years, you will have enough equity in your home to blah blah blah blah”
#7 – I’m sure the OFHEO report- when released- will trigger a massive rally in FNM and FRE.
Or they could just go back to not making quarterly reports. Problem solved!
They already know NYSE won’t de-list them for it, even if it is required.
“1. Real Estate Isn’t Dead, It’s Just Different
Two important things happened last night that are deeply interconnected. One, during an interview on CNN, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson suggested U.S. lawmakers had better pass his rescue plan for Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) or, he intimated, face embarrassing and ultimately confidence shattering personal probes. Two, although indicating he didn’t want to “speculate about a second stimulus package,” he speculated that a second stimulus package would be necessary since the first one had very clearly stimulated consumer spending.
The reason these two things are deeply interconnected is very simple: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are going to be nationalized (and there is nothing anyone can do about it), but that act – as capitulatory as it may seem – is in and of itself not enough to resurrect the housing market or stave off the ongoing economic decline. Like a gnat hitting a buffalo, it’s just not enough to move the thing.
The emergence from a state of denial back into reality is a brittle, almost blinding experience. You keep smacking yourself in the face expecting to wake up from waking up. Instead, what happens is you get a headache and your face stings red and prickly.
The dream is that we shake this thing off, pump some money into Fannie and Freddie, then wait it out like grifters on the lam for things to calm down. Once the heat is off things can get back to normal. Except they can’t. Look, the grift has been exposed. The con is up.
Right now Freddie Mac is cooking up a way to raise $5.5 billion, probably by selling stock to the government. But record delinquencies are ongoing. The latest shell game being played by banks is to simply reclassify what constitutes a delinquentloan. That way the numbers look better and people don’t notice as much how they remain inadequately capitalized for the real rate of defaults. Even so-called workout loans are defaulting at an unimaginable pace.
Right now there are entire segments of the housing market that have no mortgage provider servicing them. Creditors are demanding larger down payments. There is simply less credit available. And also less demand.
Viewed through the distorted lens of the first half of this decade, it is nearly impossible to imagine that this is the case. But the thing that must be grasped is that it’s not that real estate isn’t coming back… period… as some dangerous lunatics have exclaimed on TV and in print, it’s that the weirdness of the real estate market of 2000-2005 isn’t coming back. That’s actually a good thing. But it’s a different good thing. And some of us will need some time to adjust to this new reality.”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/fannie-freddie-fnm-fre-bear-savings/index/a/18120
tosh (20)-
The delisting of FNM and FRE will happen when the gubmint takes them over.
Grim -title in the first bonus graph may be corrected to Year to Date Change?
(21) HEHEHE – Thank you for the article. My friends think I’m crazy but I believe what is posted here…
“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are going to be nationalized (and there’s nothing anyone can do about it,…”
#22 – True enough.
# 13 – Cindy I hate to discuss the socialization of the housing market but from what I am reading the capital requirements are just too huge.
From what I understand they are too huge for us to take on. There have already been mutterings about downgrading U.S. credit ratings as a whole (Treasuries) should we take on the debt of FNM and FRE. I’m hoping that that is only wild speculation though.
Inventory is actually down year over year for the first time in 3 years.
Pant-up supply.
Listings expiring. Sellers looking for a better market next year; which isn’t coming.
Cindy [24],
Tell your friends to logon.
Fannie/Freddie will be our version of Northern Crock. I’m having dreams of France and Francois Mitterrand.
rent (26)-
Just the beginning of a transition from a bad market to no market.
Expect a higher and higher proportion of distress sales. Pretty soon, that will be all the activity you see.
It doesn’t matter that inventory is down if sales continue to fall as well.
BC (27)-
Too bad FNM and FRE don’t have branches we can queue up at when the run on them really heats up.
Maybe we should go to DC and march on DOT or the Fed.
“After eight decades in New Jersey, the drugmaker Hoffmann-La Roche is changing its name and moving its headquarters to California, the latest blow to the Garden State’s reputation as “the nation’s medicine chest.”
“The moves, part of parent company Roche’s proposed $44 billion takeover of the California biotechnology firm Genentech, will result in the U.S. subsidiary assuming the Genentech brand name, and will mean big changes for the company’s 3,240 workers in New Jersey.”
“If the deal is finalized, Roche said it will expand its research and development operations in the state, making this the primary focus of activity on the Nutley-Clifton campus. But the state will lose jobs with the closing of Roche’s U.S. headquarters in Nutley, the shutdown of its New Jersey manufacturing facilities by 2010 and a consolidation of finance and information-technology operations.”
http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/index.ssf?/base/news-13/1216701388136640.xml&coll=1
Lemme tell you: the only players in RE now are:
1. Sellers…who aren’t there out of a sense of opportunity. If somebody’s selling now, be assured the backstory is bad.
2. Buyers…who are dopes, unless their occupancy horizon is about 10+ years.
3. Birds of carrion…like me, who are just trying to clean up the mess and make a hard buck.
This is as bad as I’ve ever seen it. And, I know in my bones it’s going to get much, much worse.
What college cost?
Aldephi college, tuition, $19,960 average financial aid $14,500 and 85% of students get financial aid, Malloy College, tuition $16,500 average financial aid $10,344 about 93% get aid, Hofstra University $23,130 tuition average financial aid $13,963, 89% get aid. This is from todays Newsday. So the kids who go to these schools live at home and after financial aid the average student pays like 6K tuition. Big deal, like I said college is still very affordabe except for parents who want to bankroll 40K tuition to impress their friends.
# 21 “The reason these two things are deeply interconnected is very simple: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are going to be nationalized ”
The other alternative is for the USG to create two new agencies, capitalize them and let them start to compete in the marketplace. These will allow the functions of Freddie and Fannie to continue, costing no more than, and perhaps less than, current/impending efforts to shore-up the other two, and shielding the housing market from the collapse of Freddie and Fannie. Of course, insamuch as this approach will not protect the Chinese (and other foreign governments’) losses it is unlikely to happen. But, in a capitalistic system, moribund firms are supposed to fail and efficient and well-run firms succeed.
BC (31)-
Perhaps I should approach Roche for the listing of their building across the street from my office?
Clot [30],
There should be a march on the fed. March them right out of town. In the meantime, continue to go the other way.
BC (36)-
I’m in full Boise State/Statue of Liberty mode.
My new favorite movie is Get Shorty.
Kind of OT:
From The News & Observer, Raleigh, N.C.
Housing Sales Off 37 Percent in June
Sales of existing homes in the Triangle dropped more than one-third in June, marking the largest decline since the impact of the nationwide housing slump hit the Triangle in late 2006.
A total of 2,531 existing homes were sold in June — down 37 percent from a year earlier and the 12th consecutive month of declines.
The latest data for sales of existing homes in Wake, Durham, Orange and Johnston counties were compiled by the Triangle Multiple Listing Service. The year-to-year comparisons show that the sour economy and credit crunch are taking their toll on the Triangle housing market.
More at the link above
# 31 “the latest blow to the Garden State’s reputation as “the nation’s medicine chest.” ”
How often doi we see this sort of thing, whether nationally, statewide, or on a local or personal level: “Things have always been thus, so they ever will be.”
Just because an industry was once strong, does not mean it always will be; just ask the car makers in Michigan. We get complacent, believing that the way things are today, in our little world, is the way things ought to be — that it is the natural order of things, instead of a result of numerous circumstances and prior decisions and actions.
From CNN Money
SunTrust 2Q Net Falls 21% Amid Credit-Loss Surge
SunTrust Banks Inc. (STI) posted a 21% decline in second-quarter net income as credit-loss provisions surged, though they dropped from the first quarter.
The regional Atlanta-based bank – hard-hit by the real-estate slowdown – reported net income of $540.4 million, or $1.53 a share, down from $681.4 million, or $1.89 a share, a year ago. The results included net gains, including from the sale of Coca-Cola Co. (KO) stock, that boosted results by 75 cents and 41 cents, respectively.
…
Net charge-offs – loans it doesn’t think are collectible – soared to 1.04% of total loans from 0.30% a year ago and 0.97% in the first quarter. Last month, SunTrust reiterated its expectations for net charge-offs to rise 15% to 20% from the prior quarter.
Nonperforming loans – those in danger of going bad – increased to 2.22% from 0.64% a year earlier and 1.67% in the first quarter.
Everything Colonel Klink is proposing this morning Covered Bonds, Fannie and Freddie bailout, another stimulus check need the approval of the Democrats running the show. I don’t believe Dodd, Schumer, Pelosi, and that lisping fool Frank are about to give the Republicans any quarter given that the election is 105 days away, and Bush is still threatening veto on the existing 300 Billion FHA bill.
S&P DOWNGRADES OPINION ON APPLE SHARES TO SELL FROM BUY
Recent Price : $166.29
Recommendation:
AAPL reports Jun-Q EPS of $1.19 vs. $0.92 (previously stated $0.97), above our $1.11 view. Sales rose 38%,led by 43% growth for core Mac PC products. Gross margin widened Q/Q to 34.8%, but was narrower than
the 36.8% posted a year ago. Further concerning to us was guidance for gross margin of 31.5% for Sept-Q
and 30% for FY 09 (Sep) which, even if understated,indicates a weakening trend.We lower our EPS forecasts to $5.22 from $5.33 for FY 08, and to $6.00 from $6.60 for FY 09, and our target price to $140 from
$210 for these volatile shares based on our updated P/E analysis.
re: #42 Steve Jobs is a pancreatic cancer suvivor, one of the few out there, some are speculating he is sick again.
#6
Rich,
Thanks again. does that mean the property is now REO?
Clotpoll Says:
July 22nd, 2008 at 8:28 am
Lemme tell you: the only players in RE now are:
1. Sellers…who aren’t there out of a sense of opportunity. If somebody’s selling now, be assured the backstory is bad.
2. Buyers…who are dopes, unless their occupancy horizon is about 10+ years.
3. Birds of carrion…like me, who are just trying to clean up the mess and make a hard buck.
This is as bad as I’ve ever seen it. And, I know in my bones it’s going to get much, much worse.
clot: are you kidding?
Cindy et al:
When ( not if) the GOV nationalizes fannie and freddie, the US is going to end with a downgraded credit rating. As mentioned above, other countires have been grumbling about this for months. A credit downgrade would be a poison pill as the billions of dollars we borrow everyday just became much more expensive. I agree with SAS and 3b on this point; that the dollar is a brain dead zombie at this point. The majority of what we see in the news currently is nothing but misdirection.
Wow with those numbers, looks like realtors will have to go on a Slimfast diet. “Two shakes and a sensible meal”.
That CAN’T be true!! bi (and S&P) said there’d be no more writedowns!!!!
a question…..
for amounts less then 20K, would it make sense to hold physical swiss francs as opposed to using something like everbank? or does it make more sense to open a foreign account and dump it in a CD?
Charts!
Graphs!!
Tables!!!
Oh, my!!!!
Thanks, grim
“When ( not if) the GOV nationalizes fannie and freddie, the US is going to end with a downgraded credit rating.”
kettle,
How about T-Bills with less than a Triple A rating?
Grim,
Out of curiousity, what ever happened to the Otteau reports with the absorption rates. Those were interesting stats. I’m guessing he doesn’t provide it for free anymore from what I see on the website.
3 grim
Sounds like Paterson is not on the same page as pretorius.
3b, BC
from Star Tribune (Minneapolis)
“I think the thing that’s sometimes not well carried in the media is that in the last two years it’s taken about $17 billion more in the balance sheet to run the company. If you own a country elevator and you previously filled it up with $3 corn and $4 wheat and now you’re filling it up with $10 wheat and $7 corn, a single elevator can cost $10 million or $12 million more capital just to fill. So while your earnings go up, our cash flows have gone down dramatically. We have hundreds of elevators and if it costs $10 million more to fill up every one of those, you can quickly do the math and see that the strain on the lending system to agriculture has been enormous, because all of these crops are harvested in a very short period and consumption takes place over 365 days and somebody has to finance all of that.”
Jul 20, 2008 (Star Tribune – McClatchy-Tribune Information Services via COMTEX) — Scott Dubbelde has told himself, time and again, that there is no use fretting about things over which he has no control.
Even so, the general manager of a grain elevator cooperative in Hanley Falls, Minn., lies awake at night, worrying about the ballooning debt his elevator has incurred to finance its inventory.
“I’d be lying to you if I said I wasn’t worried,” Dubbelde said. “This is about our survival.”
“The big question many agricultural analysts are asking is how much debt elevators can incur before a liquidity crisis occurs and banks start tightening. Swanson estimates that U.S. financial institutions already have provided at least $10 billion to grain elevators, just to fund margin calls for futures contracts. Some elevators have been forced to turn to three or more lenders just to meet their debt obligations.”
I’m guessing by the end of this year we’ll be hitting new highs for absorption. With sales declining significantly, inventory flat and at higher points already than last year it should not be too difficult to move the needle upwards on absorption.
Any further job cuts or more people moving out of NJ will accelerate the absorption numbers. I also wouldn’t be surprised near year end we get another round of Wall St cuts. Hope I’m still in the saddle when it happens.
John
“Aldephi college, tuition, $19,960 average financial aid $14,500 and 85% of students get financial aid, Malloy College, tuition $16,500 average financial aid $10,344 about 93% get aid, Hofstra University $23,130 tuition average financial aid $13,963, 89% get aid. This is from todays Newsday.”
Financial aid means loans, buddy.
#50 – BC – How about T-Bills with less than a Triple A rating?
You know, no matter how I’ve turned that idea over in my head there is no way to make it non-apocalyptic.
It can’t imagine the fall-out of such an event not being huge.
(31) Clot
My realtor friend paid me a visit yesterday, she said for every foreclosure that sells, 4 more come on the market. She is also concerned with the quality of the foreclosures as this thing drags out. Evidently folks dump cement down towlets, pull all appliances and fixtures – just basically trash/strip these places. She said folks need to be careful and know what they are buying.
She was meeting up with another friend near my neighborhood to put in a cash lowball offer of $60,000 listed at $120,000. (Very small, 940 sq. ft. older place near downtown.)
It has code violations and has to be purchased “as is.”
Incidently, the realtor (she owns 14 rentals that are all doing well) and the purchaser are the only two friends who read up enough and agree me regarding this mess.
The realtor says the auctions were a bit of a show. The banks messed up there by making it hard to cut a deal. The word “greed” came up a lot in our conversation.
She has a few rentals near me and said we are now looking at 2001 prices. It seems like only a few months ago I heard 2003. Remember, California is the extreme case. But that is what she said…
kettle [53],
Major problem. Part of the past run up in wheat and rice was attributed to the lack of financing for hedgers.
chifi (44)-
No party. No disco. No fooling around.
#57,
Where can I buy all those foreclosures at those low prices you are referring to?
20 hehehehehehehehe
“Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson suggested U.S. lawmakers had better pass his rescue plan for Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) or, he intimated, face embarrassing and ultimately confidence shattering personal probes.”
Scary.
Cindy (57)-
“Remember, California is the extreme case. But that is what she said…”
One thing you can count on is the “extreme” becoming the norm.
BTW…we’re beginning to see more “cash for keys” arrangements between lenders and the foreclosed here. A lender taking post-foreclosure possession offers the former owner $3,000 to $5,000 just to get out and not trash the house. Sounds like some CA lenders should be more proactive in this area.
I can’t even imagine how long it takes to evict a squatter in CA.
tosh (56)-
That will be the end of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
Which, IMO, will happen by 2010.
Got gold?
tosh, bc
I am not a finance guy,
But isnt the down grading of T-bills a good start point for the world bailing on the US dollar? it looks like we are standing in the middle of a mine field . we are screwed any direction we step.
Guys,
Kinda off topic, but I’m watching a property that was just foreclosed on and purchased back by the mortgage lending bank. My wife and I took a quick look at the house yesterday (by peeking through the windows and walking around the yard) and it looks like it needs quite a bit of work. Ceiling panels were ripped down and stuff was all over the place, appliances were missing etc. How might I expect to pay under market value for a place like this? I believe if it was in real good condition the house would sell for 550-590k. Thx.
(60) Frank
I don’t know if that deal will go through..I’m sure they will counte
This is evidently a wreck of a place but my friend is purchasing something with a son for fix-up.
Central San Joaquin Valley – Fresno, Stockton, Modesto
Clot (62) “Sounds like some CA lenders should be more proactive in this area.”
Like I said, one word that came up often in our conversation was “greed.”
Heard this morning on the radio that Hoffman-Laroche has pulled up stakes in Nutley for and is headed out to California.
“Pharmaceutical and medical manufacturing jobs grew nationally from 207,200 in 1990 to 296,000 in 2007, Hughes said. During that time, New Jersey employment in that area was static, increasing by only 600 jobs to 42,500 — while California almost doubled its head count and surpassed the Garden State.”
Perhaps they can build some nice condos and a transit village on that tract of land off of Route 3?
//sarcasm off
http://www.nj.com/starledger/stories/index.ssf?/base/news-13/1216701388136640.xml&coll=1
Grim 67 in moderation re: Hoffman-Laroche
59 clot,
This ain’t no mudd club, or C. B. G. B.,
I ain’t got time for that now
sl
66 – counte is really counter.
terrific graphs as always.
really interesting to see the flood of inventory that hit the market in spring of 2006. the fact that there was 2 year lag between that and significant price reductions to me shows how strong an influence the loose credit was that persisted until mid 2007
Roche will still maintain an R&D site in NJ. However, many redundancies will inevitably occur in the relocation of operations etc. to Cali so I think layoffs and a net loss of headcount in NJ is inevitable.
Clot,
The building across from your office is safe. At least I really really hope so. It’s a different organization unrelated to the Pharma operation.
Hoffman-LaRoche
Didn’t they have a large facilities on Rt 46 in Teterboro and one on Rt 3?
Clot – Just curious…in your opinion will the prices here (CA) continue to drop or are we about as low as we can go.
Cindy
I wish the prices here looked like the prices there.
(75) lostinny
See Clot #62 – Maybe they will be.
Rich #37,
Re your Raleigh RE link… this is pretty funny.
From the original article:
Ross Rhudy, general manager of Ammons Pittman GMAC Real Estate, said that if there’s a silver lining, it’s that home prices are not dropping. He thinks that the severity of the decline has bottomed out.
Cindy,
I know. But the thing is, I am not in NJ and I am not in Manhattan. I am stuck inbetween. And knowing where I live, it will probably be one of the last to capitulate. People here don’t seem to think what happens everywhere else will happen to them. If prices come down in surrounding areas, I’d venture a guess that it would take another 2 years on top of that for prices to come down here. So yes, I’d like to see thing happen a little more quickly.
From MarketWatch:
Moody’s cuts Wachovia to ‘A1’ on ARM portfolio
Moody’s Investors Service on Tuesday downgraded Wachovia Corp.’s senior debt rating to A1 from Aa3 and lowered Wachovia Bank NA’s financial strength rating to B from B+ and long-term deposits to Aa2 from Aa1. Wachovia’s Prime-1 short-term ratings were affirmed. The downgrade was driven mainly by a sizable increase in its loss expectations on Wachovia’s $122 billion adjustable-rate-mortgage portfolio. Previously, Moody’s ratings on Wachovia incorporated base life-time losses of $8.5 billion on the option-ARM portfolio. Now, the rating incorporates base life-time losses on this portfolio of about $16 billion. “The provisioning associated with Moody’s loss estimates raises the possibility that Wachovia could report losses into 2009,” said Moody’s in a statement. It also added that the option-ARM portfolio has become a volatile asset class for Wachovia and accounts for 25% of its loans. The outlook is negative.
Sync (77),
That is funny as it seems the decline has just started in the South.
I have a friend in Charleston area who has reported declining prices.
question…..
for amounts less then 20K, would it make sense to hold physical swiss francs as opposed to using something like everbank? or does it make more sense to open a foreign account and dump it in a CD?
Keep at least 20K cash in your safe. Small Bills. Forget Everbank the fed will freeze your account or worse confiscate it.
it appears that Sen. Dodd is refusing to release his mortgage papers. Apparently, it would be fairly obvious that he got a special deal. I would think being a public servant and especially being part of the banking committee it should be mandatory for him to hand them over…
Kettle,
Keep at least 20K cash in your safe. Small Bills. Forget Everbank the fed will freeze your account or worse confiscate.
Kettle,
Keep at least 20K cash in your safe. Small Bills. Forget Everbank the fed will freeze your account or worse
Hey gang,
I’ve been a lurker for quite a while and while I choose to refrain from comment I do get a tremendous amount of entertainment and to a lesser degree, knowledge of….oh who am I kidding it’s just more entertainment. At any rate, I recently took advantage of a deal and figured I’d pass it on to the greater board.
I subscribed to the Economist for 12 weeks at a dollar an issue for a total of 12 dollars. No gimmicks, no clubs, it’s straight from their site. In order to lock in the dollar per issue in perpetuity, or at least they stop delivering to the newly formed people’s republic of jersey, simply click auto renew and they will keep renewing the 12 for 12 deal.
To subscribe, go to http://www.economist.com/mail/us and enter offer code B68.
Enjoy.
Grim-
Since your the cycling enthusiast, have you noticed effects on manufacturers like we’ve seen with boating, cars, RV’s, and motorcycles -high ticket items bought with home equity. It would seem the recent gas prices might have pushed more people to buy new bikes or hardware for their current bikes and counter the effect to some degree. The reason I ask is I just noticed something in my corner of the business world.
#8
“Inventory is actually down year over year for the first time in 3 years.”
Maybe all of the non-serious sellers who only wanted to sell if they could get their dream price have pulled their houses from the market.
“Inventory is actually down year over year for the first time in 3 years.”
The drop in inventory (albeit small) is really the only interesting datapoint this month.
grim.
i hope zieba, post # 83 paid you for that ad!
Thanx zieba. My subscription expired in March and I didn’t renew. I’ll have to check it out for renewal using that link, if I don’t have enough airline miles on my frequent fliers to get a subscription.
#32
“Aldephi college, tuition, $19,960 average financial aid $14,500 and 85% of students get financial aid”
what percentage of that aid is loans?
dodd same as katz,, whore
Cindy Says:
July 22nd, 2008 at 9:28 am
Evidently folks dump cement down towlets
C: is that a regional dialect?
still_looking Says:
July 22nd, 2008 at 9:47 am
There ain’t no C. B. G. B.
This impact could have been forecast from a mile away, and is critical as to why we a f—ed for the immediate future….the engines of American growth….
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25780638
(91) Ooops! Sorry Chicago – toilets – I must have been into a phonetic mode or something…
From MarketWatch:
U.S. OFHEO home prices down 4.8% in past year
U.S. May OFHEO home prices down 0.3%
Thomas Joseph Dodd (May 15, 1907 – May 24, 1971) was a United States Senator and Representative from Connecticut, and the father of U.S. Senator Christopher Dodd.
In 1967 he was censured by the Senate for using campaign funds for personal purposes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_J._Dodd
Gas price up – BAD.
Milk price up – BAD.
House prices up – GOOD?
I think that is the real problem, I can’t believe how many people I know who are infatuated with their paper wealth.
Most of my family and friends own a home, I have only one friend who has actually admitted I was right about house prices dropping. The rest forget they yelled at me 3 years ago to “Just buy a house”. Then they tell me “now is a good time to buy” I just have to remind them they were dead wrong 3 years ago, why should I trust them now?
Thank god I can come here and find like minded individuals. Maybe that just makes me crazy, and this an asylum, but I love the ambience.
Did you guys hear about a company called Internet Speedway? Apparently, you can get rich working from home selling high profit items like Ip0ds, flat screen tv’s using sites like eb8y. Now here is the thing I find interesting, you dont have to see, store, or even pay for the items! Internet Speedway will show you how for free…now if I could only find that number..,
No offense kettle, but this is exactly the kind of sh#@ I choose not to put up with.
Grim, my apologies if I have broken any rules by posting that link.
Kettle, lighten up.
I know two friends that are interested in testing the waters in Long Island, seeing the recent house price dip. One rents and the other wants to move up. The renter I’ve told him to wait as prices in the area has only begun to drop. The move up I also told to wait as the higher price home will drop more in value than his modest home. The move-up seems willing to wait. The renter is like me 2 young kids in a 2 BR. He’s going to test the waters.
#93 chicagofinance
Can’t those entrepeneurs just take their idea to the Fed’s discount window?
/ off sarcasm
anyone notice that current non-borrowed bank reserves are at -$130 billion. that is the nations banks have borrowed 130 billion from the FED to use as reserves. this is unprecedented in US history.
more fun info ( not an endorsement, just thought it was somehwat insightful)
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?The-Great-American-Nightmare-1994
Nearly every major bank, brokerage and lender you can name is up to its eyeballs in leveraged investments whose value is going up in smoke. They’re borrowing hundreds of billions from the Fed. They’re raising billions more from investors, diluting their shares. They’re selling massive amounts of assets — scrambling any way they can to raise cash to survive.
Merrill Lynch, America’s largest brokerage firm, has lost more than two thirds of its stock value. Citigroup, once America’s largest bank by market cap, has lost even more. Washington Mutual has given up nine tenths of its value. On average, even including the strongest of the banks, half of the wealth of bank shareholders has been wiped out.
#18 tbw: WIth all due respect, your cousins are idiots. So the kitchen they did 2 years ago, that will be 7 years old in another 5 years, is going to add more value to their house?
Like I said,idiots
On a side note, anyone notice how some of the athletes such as Jagr and Nachbar are siging in Europe for higher salaries?
3b: No offense taken lol
but really, they are only doing what their peers and neighbors are doing, no?
104 Danzud
I see it. I am disappointed but I can’t say I blame them.
“anyone notice that current non-borrowed bank reserves are at -$130 billion. that is the nations banks have borrowed 130 billion from the FED to use as reserves.”
kettle,
Sure, have been watching it closely.
99 zieba,
sorry if i jumped the gun.
http://www.maltzauctions.com/auction_detail.php?ID=385325
how much should we offer for this Bergen County foreclosure?
“On a side note, anyone notice how some of the athletes such as Jagr and Nachbar are siging in Europe for higher salaries?”
[104]
Higher salaries and stronger currencies. It’s a slam dunk. OOPS, it’s hockey. How about a hat trick?
$105 tbw; True: However in my neck of the woods things have gone silent. No more talk about real estate. None.
$126 a barrel. Are we seeing the beginning of deflation?
Alright, maybe I’m jumping the gun a bit on the deflation.
I saw the talking heads on a triple header with blondie and the ramones once. Southside Johnny was the warn up band. Still don’t know why a triple header needed a warm up band. Talking heads broke up, Southside Johnny is playing free outdoor concerts with other washed up bands, Blondie is currently part of the goodyear blimp fleet and the best part of the ramones are dead and CBGB is sitting in a warehouse waiting to be franchised starting in Vegas. The times they keep achanging.
Since the topic of older punk/80’s bands has come up, FYI, Killing Joke is playing NYC in October.
GSMLS 2517421 looks really nice.. and it is in Warren, which I like… but why is it priced below 400K? WTH is wrong with it? Anyone?
sync
Seems to be REO; OLP was $449900, reduced to $399k. Could be a busy section of mountain ave. Lot is only 0.12 acres. Strange layout inside.
sync, that said, at $320 – $350k, I’ll take it.
Mountain Ave., hmm. That sucks, I drive up Mountain every day to come to work and that can get very busy. And some of the homes have these very steep driveways, which I also dislike.
But I like the open floorplan.
Floorplan is nice on one hand, but doesn’t seem super-efficient in terms of heating and cooling.
10 Mountain Ave
Last sale info from tax records:
Sale Information
Sale Date: 07/02/02
Book: 5174
Page: 1566
Price: 300000
Syb/Sync,
Is that house set back from Mountain Ave? We may have a bidding war soon.
Grim,
FYI – the “vermiculite” house in Brigadoon returned to the market, priced 6K under the list when it was yanked last month. Guess the sellers found their next house, hence the listing, but they were doing “right of first refusal”/contingent on sale offers before so they may still be stuck.
Thought you would be amused.
My mistake, not REO, but seems likely to be short sale candiate.
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=10+mountain+ave.+warren,+nj&sll=40.68444,-74.551146&sspn=0.01152,0.018711&ie=UTF8&ll=40.665584,-74.458621&spn=0.00144,0.002339&t=h&z=19
Doesn’t seem set that far back.
lostinny Says:
July 22nd, 2008 at 11:15 am
Since the topic of older punk/80’s bands has come up, FYI, Killing Joke is playing NYC in October.
this is the best punk band ever……
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zm4xNlxznfs
Maybe all of the non-serious sellers who only wanted to sell if they could get their dream price have pulled their houses from the market.
I’m willing to bet that a lot of people who consider themselves to be “serious” have pulled their listings, because they simply “can’t afford” to sell for what the market will support. They don’t have enough equity and don’t have the cash to bring a check to the closing.
So, they will run up their credit cards and raid retirement accounts in an effort to limp their way into next spring, where they hope a new year will bring a recovery that will at least allow them to break even. Which, of course, it won’t.
Seriously….I miss having the time and inclination to go here……
http://www.mercuryloungenyc.com/
Lotus Point Therapeutic Massage
Write a review
10 Mountain Ave
Warren, NJ 07059
(908) 279-7277
a better view of the 10 mountain ave property
http://maps.live.com/default.aspx?v=2&FORM=LMLTCP&cp=qs9tyq8svmm6&style=b&lvl=2&tilt=-90&dir=0&alt=-1000&scene=18477865&phx=0&phy=0&phscl=1&encType=1
click on birds eye view
sync, hahahahaha
nice find!
Here is a screenshot of google street view of 10 mountain…
http://img382.imageshack.us/img382/1333/10mountain07059go9.jpg
chicagofinance Says:
July 22nd, 2008 at 11:46 am
My best memory from there was meeting Curt Smith from Tears for Fears. He was playing with his own band Mayfield, and my friend was one of his psuedo-hangers-on. The Hurting was my soundtrack for high school.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hurting
128 chicagofinance
Mercury Lounge! You’re killing me. My cousin used to work in the music industry, aw hell, he still does, I just can’t go out anymore, and I was there with him all the time. What a great, great place. Thank god I misspent my youth when I had the opportunity.
130
Looks like there were 3 “customers” there when that shot was taken :-)
chi
yesterday – got it.
misread you somewhat.
126 Chifi
Whatever you say.
I haven’t been to Mercury Lounge in a long time. Somehow I keep ending up at Irving Plaza.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/44694.html
Bad–and getting worse.
(Forgive me if this has been posted already_
kettle1, nice.. I hadn’t seen the 2D bird eye view maps on live.com before. Love the display, very crisp. It actually makes my neighborhood in Pway look way nicer than it really is! Or maybe everything looks nice when you’re a bird.
aleardy posted???
Freddie Mac May Slow Purchases of Mortgages, Bonds
July 21 (Bloomberg) — Freddie Mac, the second-largest U.S. mortgage-finance company, may cut purchases of home loans from banks and bonds backed by housing debt to shore up its capital amid record delinquencies.
The government-sponsored company is also considering selling securities and reducing its dividend while it prepares to issue $5.5 billion of stock, McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac said in a July 18 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Matthew Jozoff said in a report last week that growth in mortgage holdings of Freddie Mac and the larger Fannie Mae will be “weak.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&refer=home&sid=aqZzF4461u0Q
From CNN/Money:
U.S. home prices drop 4.8% in May
A government report says U.S. home prices fell 4.8% in May from the same month last year.
The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight also says prices, on a seasonally adjusted basis, fell 0.3% from April to May. The index is down almost 5% from its peak in April of last year.
These 2D maps must be recent, my wifes car (we got it a year ago) is in our driveway.
97 RayC
“Gas price up – BAD.
Milk price up – BAD.
House prices up – GOOD?”
Tell me about it – what an odd dichotomy.
Hey – off to Bowcraft in a bit with the little ‘uns.
lostinny Says:
July 22nd, 2008 at 11:54 am
126 Chifi
Whatever you say.
;-)
from WSJ (behind paywall)
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s most senior financial-institutions banker, Ken Wilson, is temporarily leaving the firm to advise Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on how to resolve the country’s banking crisis, according to people familiar with the matter.
So arent GS guys pretty much running hte North american financial system at this point?
From the IHT:
U.S. home prices plunge
U.S. home prices fell 4.8 percent in May from a year earlier, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, as banks restricted lending in the second year of a worldwide credit crunch.
The monthly house price index is down 4.9 percent from its peak in April 2007, Washington-based Ofheo said Tuesday in a report.
The worst U.S. housing slump in more than a quarter of a century is deepening as banks rein in mortgage lending after recording more than $400 billion in home loan-related losses and writedowns.
Sales of previously owned homes probably will drop to 5.39 million in the U.S. this year, 24 percent below the 2005 all-time high of 7.08 million, the National Association of Realtors said in a July 8 forecast.
The median U.S. home price probably will tumble 6.2 percent in 2008 to $205,300, the realtors group said in its forecast. Last year’s 1.4 percent drop was the first national decline in the U.S. median since the Great Depression, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the housing group.
njpatient
You gonna hit Scoops on the way home?
RayC Says:
July 22nd, 2008 at 11:52 am
128 chicagofinance
Mercury Lounge! You’re killing me. My cousin used to work in the music industry, aw hell, he still does, I just can’t go out anymore, and I was there with him all the time. What a great, great place. Thank god I misspent my youth when I had the opportunity.
RayC: I heard that Eddie Vedder/Pearl Jam used to show up there all the time unannounced/under-psuedonyms during the week circa 1993-1994.
can someone get me an address on MLS#: 2418625 pleeeeeeeeeese.
thank um u in advance…
I also liked going to the Comedy Cellar during the week. All kinds of people showed up. The best night was all unannounced: David Chappelle, Wanda Sykes, Godfrey and Ray Romano. This was somewhere around 1999-2001…I forget…
ray
maybe
maybe we hit Friday’s for lunch.
Lazy staycation.
Oh *F*!!!!!
Not that one!
I need the address on MLS#: 2509733
I need to pull my head out of my posterior…
from WSJ (behind paywall)
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s most senior financial-institutions banker, Ken Wilson, is temporarily leaving the firm to advise Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on how to resolve the country’s banking crisis, according to people familiar with the matter.
So arent GS guys pretty much running hte North american financial system at this point?
I posted this yesterday. He’s voluntering until the end of the year. I love it.
Your question is obvious. I would love to know who do they report to. Who does Lloyd and Hank work for?
Roubinator:
N-man…ok you combed the hair, but fix the collar dude…
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/41229/Roubini-Bear-Market-Only-Half-Over-But-It's-Not-Armageddon?tickers=%5EDJI,%5ESPX,%5EIXIC,SPY,DIA,XLF
spam
15 ILENE CT BLD 12 UNT 17&18
Hillsborough
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/41229/Roubini-Bear-Market-Only-Half-Over-But-It's-Not-Armageddon?tickers=%5EDJI,%5ESPX,%5EIXIC,SPY,DIA,XLF
use the entire text to get the video
Yaz is in town this week. Broke up before their monster hit album so this is like the first time you can see them.
what happened to oil and gold recently? chinese no longer drive and indians don’t do wedding any more? oil down $5 and gold down $17 today
ChiFi (126),
Glass Tiger?
Rich In NNJ Says:
July 22nd, 2008 at 12:18 pm
ChiFi (126),
Glass Tiger?
IT WAS A JOKE!!!!!!!
#32 What college cost?
Isn’t it financial aid is based on income?
If parents can bank role 40k,you think they can qualify for aid?Just want to get more input…i’m making over 130k now.Can my kid get financial aid?ty
10 Mountain Ave.
syncmaster: This house has been languishing on the forsalebyowner site for over a year. If I recall, it started in the upper 500s. The highlight of the house seems to be the bathroom, since it was the first pic in the forsalebyowner.
bi [160],
YOY, crude is up approx 100% and gold, approx 40%. Your point is?
Anti Trump #164,
The place is (was?) a massage joint. So it’s not too surprising they have a nice bathroom.
160 bi
“what happened to oil”
Ever closer to $40.
Financial aid is weird depends on school, at princton and harvard at 130K you will get pretty much a huge break. Other weird part is how schools calculate aid. Take my laid off brother, he has around 900K equity in his house, one million in his 401k and three fully paid for cars. A lot of schools don’t count home equity, 401k or assets like boats or cars. His kids would get more financial aid then someone making 100k with no retirement funds, no house or card.
Federal/State Financial aid dollar amounts only cover state schools or the cheapest private schools the more expensive private school you have to shop around for the best deal.
Problem is kids sometimes set their hearts on the most expensive school that offers the least financial aid and parents are suckers.
159 John
That was last week.
165 BC Bob
“bi [160],
YOY, crude is up approx 100% and gold, approx 40%. Your point is?”
On top of his head.
This has been another episode of Easy Answers To Easy Questions.
# 62 “I can’t even imagine how long it takes to evict a squatter in CA.”
In NJ, there are other, um, quicker, ways to deal with squatters. Anyone remember a particular Sopranos episode where this issue was addressed?
Another interesting listing in Warren, on realtor.com. This one’s a 2 bedroom (??) on 0.8 acres of land, at Elm and 9th. Not near a main road at all. Google streetview looks very wooded. MLS ID# 2525248 on realtor.com. Asking 389k.
165#, bob, that was history. what do you think going forward?
“what happened to oil and gold recently? chinese no longer drive and indians don’t do wedding any more? oil down $5 and gold down $17 today”
You know many times oil and gold has been down the past 5 years. I’m gonna guess a few hundred. You know how many times they have been up. I’m gonna guess a few thousand.
Oil and Gold can’t be up everyday. Your grasping at straws right now. They are both still way up. I believe gold was at $860 a few weeks ago.
Sybarite…
grassy a**
Cindy (74)-
I don’t really follow central or SoCal markets, but if the inventory in LA County is approaching 50% REO/foreclosure, I’d say you’re possibly close to the bottom.
Please don’t take my word for anything there, though. I’m wrong a lot lately.
Nudge
New law will require organ donation decision for N.J. drivers
174#. relax. ben. crude has been down almost 15% from the peak. to me it is a pattern of starting global recession. get out of high fliers such as energy and industrial metals and move to defensive such as food, healthcare and utilities
177 grim
great.
I don’t see the problem. You can still say no.
“165#, bob, that was history. what do you think going forward?”
bi,
I’m long gold and short oil. That’s what I think.
# 179
Wnen dead, this may make sense, BUT as a condition of renewal? Yeesh.
no political argument. here is my guess for veeps: romney v.s. clinton.
other ideas?
Oh, Mr. Jones, you have three Axels. That wil be a kidney and your spleen.
The price of gold keeps changing but it is no more valuable that it was pre-price movements. Gold is not used up like oil and for the most part serves no purpose in our day to day lives, unless I am Mr. T and buy a lot of gold on a regular basis the price of gold going up is about as important to me as the price of used tampons.
180 bi
“to me it is a pattern of starting global recession.”
Does this mean you’re no longer a bull?
John, you may not care about the price of gold, but do you care about the value of your dollars?
sync
2525248
Has well water and septic.
sync
2525248
Has well water and septic.
BC (112)-
No coincidence that the most-improved soccer league in Europe is Russia. Zenit St Petersburg won last year’s UEFA Cup with very little resistance. Over the Summer, the most-talked about players in the transfer market have been Arshavin, Zhirkov, et al from the Russian Euro ’08 team that punked Holland.
I have a feeling not many of the Russians will move. Those guys have it good.
re: #160 bi – Oil is heading down do to threats from Congress to rein in those speculators in the ICE market by mandating
that COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION
take oversight over the ICE (dark) market.
Sentor Harry Reid’s bill S.3268
(Stop Excessive Energy Speculation Act of 2008) may see some floor action this week.
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/F?c110:1:./temp/~c110YYjnQu:e8042:
chi (128)-
I’d still have to go with the S@x Pistols on that one.
John [187],
It’s a store of value and a medium of exchange. Nothing different than the past 2,000 years.
It may not serve any purpose to you, however, it has broken out against all currencies. In 2002 an oz could buy $242 of used tampons, today $940 of the same. Either gold is increasing in value or used tampons are declining faster than the IB’s.
(143)-
“Freddie Mac May Slow Purchases of Mortgages, Bonds”
The septic is now tamped full of crap.
Vodka (148)-
“So arent GS guys pretty much running the North american financial system at this point?”
Yep. And at the same time, they’re short it.
grim Says:
July 22nd, 2008 at 12:42 pm
Nudge
New law will require organ donation decision for N.J. drivers
Should a least give attribution…..I bet it was Corzine…even though he is a pud…
clott,
85 Broad St
new address of the illuminati???
/joking
Howard Jones (164),
I’m a little slow on the up-take today!
yome Says:
July 22nd, 2008 at 12:24 pm
#32 What college cost?
Isn’t it financial aid is based on income?
If parents can bank role 40k,you think they can qualify for aid?Just want to get more input…i’m making over 130k now.Can my kid get financial aid?ty
y: JJ says it right….you can drop $40K/year to go to Harvard, they have a huge endowment so you will not pay sticker price OR you can drop $40K to go to Marist, which is a crock, useless and a waste of money. It’s a perfectly fine degree, but what business does your kid have going to Marist and graduating with $100K+ of debt.
Don’t says this to your kids, but the college question has a BARBELL answer….you go best of breed or state school….unless you are able to pay full freight and not have it hurt you or your scholar…..
Rich In NNJ Says:
July 22nd, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Howard Jones (164),
I’m a little slow on the up-take today!
Hey. Howard Jones was my in for my first French Kiss…don’t knock the man.
““So arent GS guys pretty much running the North american financial system at this point?”
Yep. And at the same time, they’re short it.”
Kinda like they did with the real estate market. They had their guys buying up all this worthless paper to get everyone to follow suit even more. Meanwhile, they were busy shorting the crap outa it at the same time.
Syncmaster (145):
“These 2D maps must be recent, my wifes car (we got it a year ago) is in our driveway.”
That’s funny Sync. Your wife’s car appears in my driveway as well.
I’m back ya’all!
ChiFi (198)-
Too bad somebody didn’t think to yank out his spleen with a Swiss army knife when he was laying there on the Parkway last year.
(204)-
Live, and in color.
if I had kids, I’d be sending them to college in Arizona right now.
http://tuition.web.arizona.edu/secondlowest.html
Less than 5k tuition in-state, and they pretty much give in state tuition to everyone. Couple that with the low rents in the area.
I couldn’t resist Clot (206, 204).
Even when I applied to fancy private schools and Ivies that promised 100% financial aid over 11 years ago, all we got in the mail with those acceptance letters were financial aid “awards” of 4 loans each for my parents and me to cover the cost. Being smart only got you loans at the reputable schools and scholarships at the unknown schools.
American Express Tastes New Water
“You never know what water you will drink.”
– Ancient Chibchan aphorism
Indeed. Remember that. You never know. Only a fool would tromp recklessly on Chibchan wisdom. Or an ignoramus. These days it’s hard to tell the difference. I am not sure which of those two camps, if any, American Express (AXP) CEO Ken Chenault falls into, but I do know that executives in that humbled company are even now tasting a type of water which they clearly never conceived.
Yes, you never know what water you will drink. This strange aphorism originated sometime around 10,000 BC near the “sabana” of Colombia, high on a plateau attached to the Andes. It was very likely used to warn idle traders, pausing from their descent down those mountains, not to trifle with the dangerous Magdalena River Valley tribes. But that’s sheer speculation.
Today it’s being engraved on the back of American Express charge plates and printed on outgoing cardmember statements informing hapless business owners and vacationers from Traverse City, MI to Ocala, FL that their credit lines have been slashed, their markers called in.
Yesterday afternoon American Express was forced to detail the grim and ugly truth about the economy in their quarterly conference call. As observers of the game, American Express usually sits high up in the stadium, protected by glass-enclosed luxury boxes that are ordinarily filled to overflowing with shrimp cocktails, cheese plates and boxes of wine and liquor. Ordinarily. These are different times.
According to Chenault, cardmember spending, particularly among consumers, slowed sharply during the latter part of the quarter. “Credit indicators, as we signaled a few weeks ago, deteriorated beyond our expectations,” Chenault glumly intoned, adding that “by almost any measure” the U.S. economy and business environment are much weaker than the assumptions made back in January and as recently as early June.
The awful kicker, especially for the luxury box set, is that the fallout was evident across all consumer segments. “Even our longer-term superprime Cardmembers,” Chenault said. Consequently,given the environment, “we’ll continue to scale back some card acquisition efforts and reduce credit lines selectively in the U.S.,” he added.
Now, for regular people, this news might seem to have the potential fold into a blender with a bag of ice and get whirled into some kind of frozen Schadenfreude cocktail. “Et tu, Centurion cardholder? Welcome to the real world.” But that’s the kind of herding mentality that devolves into angry riots and common theft. You never know what water you will drink.
The reason this matters at all to regular folks, and make no mistake, matter it does, is because of the following warning from CFO Dan Henry: “In light of our desire to maximize our ability to invest in the business, we are further intensifying our reengineering efforts with an eye toward reducing cost structure and staffing levels.” And there it is. American Express is just like every other company: When the going gets tough, the employees are made to get gone. As it has always been, so shall it always be. That’s why this matters on Main Street.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/AAPL-AXP-UPS-TXN-bac-WB/index/a/18142
grim unmod 210
in case you thought fannie mae (and freddie) might have a chance…..
from the washington post
As of Sept. 30, Fannie Mae’s capital totaled $41.7 billion, which exceeded the requirement by $2.3 billion. To put that in perspective, in October, the company held $732.3 billion of mortgage-related investments, had debts of $763.9 billion, and guaranteed payments on $2.3 trillion of mortgage-backed securities.
#207
Ben,
Great place to go to school and it is affordable, but unless something has changed in recent years they aren’t giving in-state tuition to everyone.
Everyone hears how easy it is to get residency, until they get out there and it isn’t that easy.
Again, great place to go to school…
Anyone looking to rent a 3bed/1.5 bath duplex condo with one car garage in Summit? $2000 per month, 1.5 month deposit. no fee
A person at work owns it and his tenant is moving out next month or so.
412 Morris Ave, Summit, NJ
Sounds way overpriced.
My last student loan trick, don’t work while kids are in school and sign you and your wife up for nine credits each at the local community college which is min to be counted as full time students. That way if you have two kids in college plus the two adults you show four people in school with no income and you hit the gravy train. Other trick is to be teacher or admin at school with recpricol privledges, for instance is your work at NYU your kids can go to hundreds of colleges for free. Only a fool pays for school. I only got nailed when I took summer classes for tuition.
Also the chinese did stop driving they closed the roads for the olympics, plus they are not traveling on vacation right now, since they can’t eat dog till the olympics are over they are all in a bad mood.
Sovereign Bancorp, Inc. 2Q 2008 Earnings Webcast When: 7/23/08 @ 10:30 a.m. Eastern Where: http://www.sovereignbank.com under Investor Relations, Events & Webcasts
always a good call since they do a mix of everything and are mainly a northeast bank.
\
Clot. You knew your time would come, didn’t you?
Private university with big endowments are now stepping up grants. Harvard is an example.
http://www.hno.harvard.edu/gazette/2007/12.13/99-finaid.html
But you are talking the super-elite rich schools countable by hand. Tuition is no object to endowments the size of small nations. Still, it’s worth the application fee if you (your kid) make the cut.
The next bargain out there are the state schools. The usual rule is 1 year full fee for out of stater and resident tuition after but some state differs. The University of California system is a bargain for the value. Urbana-Champane also comes to mind. However, federal scholarship and grants for state school is drying up so it’s harder to get grant on top of the lower tuition than it used to.
Law and business schools are a completely different game–even state school assumes you can afford a big tuition. As far back as 5-6 years ago UCLAW or Boalt (Berkeley) law school were charging 10k tuition. Now, they are in the 25k/yr league.
If your are trying to claim out of state residency make sure your kid takes road test and gets license in new state and files some type of income tax return their while still in hs, plus use that address for application and grants.
John, I hope you put the following topic on your agenda list:
“Gaming the System: The Little Guy’s Guide to Finance and Cash Management.”
#168 syncmaster
Massage joint !! nice.
anyway, it was a failed condo conversion and my friend picked it up at an auction for half of what some of the other buyers paid the developer.
Ridgewood Comp Killer!
SOLD: 436 NORTHERN PKWY $500,000 6/10/2003
MLS#: 2807466
Orig List: $575,000 8/1/2007
SOLD: $499,999 7/22/2008
221 Pat
Unfortunately, a lot of people play that game.
Dumont FUTURE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 71 VIRGINIA AVE $410,000 4/11/2006
MLS#: 2830979
Orig List: $449,900 6/1/2007
Last List: $399,000 7/21/2008
NYSE Futures License Expected By September
– 07/22/2008
Duncan Niederauer, ceo of NYSE Euronext, is expecting the exchange to get a futures license by September, following discussions with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. In March, the exchange bought the gold and silver commodity trading franchise from CME Group and has been trying to get the approval to make the foray into the futures market ever since. Niederauer told a Futures Industry Association luncheon in New York Tuesday that the license is expected before Labor Day. “We’ve got the ticket to the game and we aren’t watching from the cheap seats; we are playing the game,” he said, commending the CFTC for its cooperation.
NYSE plans to launch the metals business first but has no set plan for which contracts it might add once that business takes off. Niederauer plans to meet with the FIA and individual member firms to get their ideas on what contracts are needed in the futures market, as the exchange doesn’t want to compete on rates alone. It will likely avoid illiquid futures as well. “I’d rather own a small fraction of a meaningful business than 100% of something that trades 10,000 contracts a day,” he said.
225
Why should the little guy be any different than the big guys when it comes to gaming the system?
Hey JB, dunno what happened there. Can you delete? Thx
Closter FUTURE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 426 CLOSTER DOCK RD $475,000 11/29/2006
MLS#: 2800607
Orig List: $549,900 1/5/2008
Last List: $369,900 7/21/2008
Fair Lawn FUTURE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 5-11 4TH ST $470,000 6/22/2006
MLS#: 2822991
Orig List: $479,900 6/3/2008
Last List: $459,900 7/22/2008
What, exactly, does “most” mean?
FDIC’s Bair: Most U.S. Banks ‘Safe and Sound’
Most U.S. banks are safe and depositors are not at risk of losing their money even if their institutions do fail, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp Chairman Sheila C. Bair said on CNBC.
Ho-Ho-Kus FUTURE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 160 BLAUVELT AVE $1,350,000 6/30/2004
MLS#: 2813578
Orig List: $1,799,000 1/17/2007
Last List $1,299,000 7/22/2008
HOLY!! that is a strong rally in financials folks!!
bottom is in, kitchen sink has been cleaned up.
another great entrypoint for SKF is nearing… this is one crazy market. program trading is so manic… but it provides such opportunity.
Pat (218)-
Every dog has his day.
Why does that read like a Yahoo Finance board post?
Lodi FUTURE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 286 FARNHAM AVE $760,000 8/4/2006
MLS#: 2826140
Orig List: $779,000 8/6/2007
Last List: $689,900 7/21/2008
Oakland FUTURE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 74 ROOSEVELT BLVD $339,900 8/15/2003
MLS#: 2748920 (REO)
Orig List: $419,900 2/18/2006
Last List: $279,900 7/22/2008
clot, you are losing to paulson and the gang
SKF down 9% again.
Ridgefield Park FUTURE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 54 SUMMIT ST $324,000 5/4/2005
MLS#: 2819966 (Ownership: Bank/Private?)
Orig List: $395,000 9/20/2007
Last List: $299,000 7/22/2008
Wachovia Update: 10,750 Jobs Cut –
yikes
apparantly financials are not in normal market. WB is in the hard-to-borrow list of 25 names but AXP is not. AXP down 9% but WB up 25%. Paulson, Benanke and SEC are setting the price.
#201
“Don’t says this to your kids, but the college question has a BARBELL answer….you go best of breed or state school….unless you are able to pay full freight and not have it hurt you or your scholar…..”
agree completely
Based upon the markets reaction today Wachovia should have taken a 30 billion dollar writedown.
“#207
Ben,
Great place to go to school and it is affordable, but unless something has changed in recent years they aren’t giving in-state tuition to everyone.
Everyone hears how easy it is to get residency, until they get out there and it isn’t that easy.
Again, great place to go to school…”
Doyle, my girlfriend went there. She got in state tuition all 4 years. It’s doable. Right now, you only have to live in state for a year so you may have to pay out of state for the first year. It’s still worth it.
BC, CHiFI, or even BI anyone please,
Why is WB up 25% today? it doesn’t make any sense. They have a ton of Arms from Golden West on their books. Non performing assets bla bla bla.
9 Billion in wrtite downs, last to exit wholesale, 10645 employees goneand the Market rallies 25% on news like this.
I just don’t get it. Like Clot said do we pick up some SKF first thing tom?
John,Njpatient
“Aldephi college, tuition, $19,960 average financial aid $14,500 and 85% of students get financial aid, Malloy College, tuition $16,500 average financial aid $10,344 about 93% get aid, Hofstra University $23,130 tuition average financial aid $13,963, 89% get aid. This is from todays Newsday.”
Not to mention that its an average. I was lucky and received a heafty amount of tuition assitance because I was proactive; writing my senators, congressmen, and other scholarship opportunities. I was funded a lot from taxpayers dollars (much thanks, I will make you proud!). Many others received little or nothing.
School cost 15,000$ a year and I was funded 110% due to my diligence, including some student loans. Some other guy was funded 3-4% because he wasn’t as active and had to pay out of pocket or take more student loans. Average doesn’t mean very much when a minority of the students are receiving the majority of the funding.
bi (238)-
Sleeping like a baby. I just keep averaging down.
The only question now is how long it will be until the systemic insolvency of the entire US financial system is fully revealed.
If the gubmint wants to bail out Fannie, Freddie, et al…fine. It will come at the cost of a downgrade to the credit rating of our country, and the $ will cease to be the world’s reserve currency. That might be a nice time to be in SKF and long gold.
All other doors are closed. There’s no other way out of the mess (oh…other than letting markets purge the bile and clear themselves. BWAHAHAHAHA.).
Wil E is about to go over the cliff. And, he’s accelerating his Acme jet-powered skateboard.
God help us all.
Wow, what a day in the markets! Nothing like blowing out the shorts. Totally manipulated market!
This may last another week or two and then the bottom falls out.
All Paulson and Bernake need to do is manipulate the market until Obama gets in. Then they can take private sector jobs and blame the next guys for the Great Recession of 2008-2010.
And for Wachovia…They did not report a penny of losses for the pay option arms. So let the market rally, they have 20 billion more losses on the books.
nick,
many colleges and majors have become nothing more then highschool part 2. Colleges need to return to academic rigorousness and the US needs to redevelop trade schools. Trade schools have been pushed off as a dumping ground for those who cant cut it. But good trade schools are just as relevant as good colleges. heck a good trades man can make more than many white collar college graduates can.
clott,
if paulson and friends can wait until after Jan 1 2009 to crash the US financial market, i would greatly appreciate it.
249
I think they will wait until January 20, 2009.
kettle,
I agree. I teach college right now. Problem is, high school needs to get back to what it was 20 years ago. And so does middle school. And so does elementary school. The performance of college students has fallen off the wayside in the past 8 years and it’s only getting worse.
The education system is in shambles. We spend years teaching these kids to analyze Romeo and Juliet in English class. Meanwhile, 90% of them would fail a basic grammar test.
“Inventory is actually down year over year for the first time in 3 years.”
Might I suggest that the falling prices are making it impossible for people who bought in 2005 and later to be able to price their houses to sell.
Priced out of the selling market? Forced homesteading.
Essentially you are begining to pull out of the market those who move every 3-5 years. This will not stop a price slide but might slow the decent to the bottom.
Or possibly that you will see an even growing number of forclosures due to those who have to move/migrate unable to absorb the losses. Thus a respite before another steep forclosure induced drop.
I suggest this because I have two sisters that are sitting in the mid-stage between these two alternatives. They cannot sell their homes/second homes because the loss would become due and they don’t have the capital. They hold on to the property either renting or absorbing the mortgage. I have a feeling that it is only a matter of time before forclosure starts to nip on their heels.
BREAKING
NEWSNation’s largest thrift Washington Mutual reports a larger than expected loss as it continues to reel from the mortgage meltdown.
Should have bought the SKF today
vodka (249)-
Maybe it will be this year’s October Surprise.
Along with an attack on Iran.
Good times.
#247…you think that is going to happen? I mean, I’m cynical, but the collapse of the system will wipe out your shorts as well…only you gold and guns will be safe..oh, and your local police officer has access to far more fire power come the armagedden then most of us have I bet they take the gold…
x (253)-
“BREAKING NEWS Nation’s largest thrift Washington Mutual reports a larger than expected loss as it continues to reel from the mortgage meltdown.”
Wow. What a surprise.
Yawn…
#244 Ben,
I went to ASU. Your girlfriend must have had “financial independence”, that’s what makes it so tough. Her parents couldn’t claim her for two years on their tax returns prior to her gaining residency. Not many students can say that. The Board of Regents also states that, “A student must couple his or her physical presence within Arizona with financial independence and objective evidence of intent to make Arizona his or her permanent home.”
“Objective evidence”, they don’t make it that easy.
Good for her though, totally worth it if it can be pulled off.
http://www.abor.asu.edu/1_the_regents/reports_factbook/residency.html#Establish%20Arizona%20residency
1987 (255)-
Yes, I actually do think this is going to happen.
This time it’s different; we are about to experience the world’s first sector-driven Depression. Some sectors of the economy and developing countries will putter along just fine, while waves of poo will wash over giant parts of the economy and populace.
256#, Can you believe it? WM was up to $6.25 from close of $5.82 after announcement.
WaMu reports quarterly net loss of $3.33 billion
clott,
recent rumor mill hubub is that october looks like the deadline for action in iran.
that is no way reliable, but could be interestin gtiming
WaMu reports quarterly net loss of $3.33 billion
It’s up 8% in afterhours trading. If they would have wrote down 9 billion they could have been up 25% ala Steel.
#247…you think that is going to happen? I mean, I’m cynical, but the collapse of the system will wipe out your shorts as well…only you gold and guns will be safe..oh, and your local police officer has access to far more fire power come the armagedden then most of us have I bet they take the gold…
store it in Australia via Europac
Moody’s Rating BAA3
S&P Rating BBB
Even more amazing how does Wamu keep its bond rating?
The education system is in shambles. We spend years teaching these kids to analyze Romeo and Juliet in English class. Meanwhile, 90% of them would fail a basic grammar test.
Ben,
I came out of Stern and can’t spell and my grammar is a joke but life there tought me that working for a salary and paying taxes is not the way to go.
Grammar and spelling needs to be the Focus in English classes and Poetry majors only.
Why not offer more courses on Financial Literacy in HS, foreign exchage, World Capital Markets.
How about a serious understanding of both Macro mand Micro economics is heck of a lot more valuable then the useless junk they try to teach now.
95% percent of college graduates have never even seen what a checkbook looks like nonetheless balancing one.
Stuff like APR, FICO, mortgages, ARMS, credits/Debits, equities.
OK I’ll go have a drink now.
as clott and others have said, who doesnt think that paulson, beranke and friends arent pulling every string they can get their hands on to maintain the business as usual image. pay no attention to the man behind the curtain
“95% percent of college graduates have never even seen what a checkbook looks like nonetheless balancing one.”
yup. I agree.
however, this is all by design.
you think the powers that be want people to have financial sense? of course not.
SAS
My 18 month daughter watches squak box every morning. That Becky Quick is toast in 25 years. Actually judging from my staff no one under 30 has ever seen a checkbook. Kinda like telling them about records, rotery phones and token booths, you just get a blank stare.
#223 Rich: Back to 2003 pricing!!!
sas (267)-
If even a handful of people had the kind of idea those of us here have about how bad things are getting, they’d be storming the ramparts right now.
The general population has been systematically narcoticized and rendered zombies.
#236 Rich” 760k in Lodi!!! Mind numbing!!!
Clot,
Rememeber the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. not to mention the embarrasment you on eth eloosing end and Bi on the winning side.
make (272)-
Believe me, I’m not worried for a second. I’ve made plenty of wrong calls before…and this ain’t one of them.
syncmaster
How is the commute from Warren? How do you get to uptown/downtown manhattan?
make money Says:
July 22nd, 2008 at 4:02 pm
BC, CHiFI, or even BI anyone please,
Why is WB up 25% today? it doesn’t make any sense. They have a ton of Arms from Golden West on their books. Non performing assets bla bla bla.
albani: So what?…think about this…Every last person who wants to short the stock is already there, and every person who holds the stock hasn’t been frightened off already…what further catalyst is there to drive the price further down in the face of news that is not any worse than what was expected? Once there is upward momentum, the shorts get squeezed and then it just mushrooms….
I was traveling today. Lots of ugly financial l news especially Wachovia, and the market rallies, because some believe the worst is over?
Almost 9 billion in losses, and the stock rallies? Makes no sense, and I have been around quite a while.
#275 chgo: the shorts get squeezed and then it just mushrooms…. And???
Short Squeeze: a sharp move up in stock price forcing short sellers to liquidate their positions.
To liquidate a position you have to buy. Buying squeezes more shorts which beggets more buying which squeezes more shorts which beggets more buying which squeezes more shorts which beggets more buying which squeezes more shorts which beggets more buying which squeezes more shorts which beggets more buying which squeezes more shorts which beggets more buying which squeezes more shorts which beggets more buying which squeezes more shorts which beggets more buying which squeezes more shorts which beggets more buying which squeezes more shorts which beggets more buying which squeezes more shorts which beggets more buying which squeezes more shorts which beggets more buying OK?
#276 3B:
Kind of like the idiots who run the Sovereign
Wealth funds and TPG who jumped into financials. The huge pig has to make it’s way through the snakes’ belly and that’s going to take time.
[278] cont’d
Then when all the shorts are thrown overboard and the herd is convinced that the lows are in, you create a bull trap, time to short the stock again.
“Banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies.”
Thomas Jefferson.
Well BC, 281
we have the most powerful military in history, perhaps we should put it to a good use!?!?!
This is too funny..
Peter Schiff, president of securities-brokerage firm Euro Pacific Capital in Darien, Conn., has been downbeat on the economy for months but never thought he was the kind of customer that AmEx would worry about. That changed a few months ago when one of his employees tried to book a block of hotel rooms for a seminar on the firm’s corporate AmEx card. The card was declined, and Mr. Schiff subsequently discovered that AmEx had cut his $40,000 credit line to $4,500.
Mr. Schiff says an AmEx customer-service representative told him that his business had been identified as “high risk” and that American Express was trying to reduce its exposure to the financial-services industry. An AmEx spokesman declined to comment.
After trying unsuccessfully to reinstate his credit limit, Mr. Schiff recently switched to a Visa card from Bank of America that has a credit limit of $88,000. “I had been saying all along this would happen. Little did I know it would happen to me,” Mr. Schiff says.
full story here:
http://www.wsj.com/article/SB121383214440886577.html?mod=most_emailed_d
#278 chgo: All the while ignoring the fundamentals??
#263..how does that help with the collapse of everything potended here..there ain’t no internet, phone service, electricity or planes or boats….what good is money …anywhere?
Or is this all just talk about this year’s stock trade?
I’m banking the latter and am on board!
Kettle,
May purchase a Mini-14 Ranch model with extra stock for $500, which my research tells me is a very good price. Seller will let me test it. Haven’t handled one of these in years. Any advice on what to look for?
Apple reports a profitable quarter and is realistic about future earnings = stock DOWN.
Wachovia reports major losses in quarter and hopes writedowns are over = stock UP.
WTF? Is illogical the new norm?
#287 orion: Exactly my point!! Must be that new math.
3b [284],
When a stock has had a huge run and is accompanied by a mammoth short position, the subsequent short covering rally doesn’t care about fundamentals. Chi is right, it feeds on itself. The key is to determine if it’s just a much needed retracement/relief rally or the beginning of a bull market.
Some of the most extreme rallies occur as counter trend moves. Bear market rallies are known to be vicious. Fundamentals are left at the front/back door.
Roubini said at #159 Chicagofinance that there would not be an Armageddon…close to it – but not.
Any opinions about his interview?
must read for anyone considering law school:
http://www.elsblog.org/the_empirical_legal_studi/2008/07/how-the-cravath.html
so, who is going to bail out the airline industry?
the usual suspect: the idiot tax payer.
SAS
So how long before the next asian “conflict”? it looks like this time we may be on the same side as vietnam.
SAS,
fancy another trip over there? for old times sake? they’ll be nicer this time i promise!
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/JG23Cb01.html
Nom 286,
I do not claim to be a gun smith or gun expert. That said i would break it down and look for corrosion/excessive wear/ excessive carbon build up. If the weapon has been well cared for you should be able to tell.
From my experience if the seller is going to let you fire it and you can break it down then those are the 2 biggest things.
I have no experience with the ruger mini 14, so take this with a grain of salt.
“fancy another trip over there? for old times sake?”
I’ve been back several times since the tour of 66.
man, alot of water under that bridge.
SAS
for rifle,
I like the .280 caliber myself.
SAS
SAS,
the airline industry as we know it is dead. The future of the airline indusrty is 1950 redux. the wealthy and business people will be the only ones flying o a regular basis. Any semblance of the current airline model will only be viable if substantially supported by the government.
map of the south china sea for those curious in regards to post 293. note the location of the Straits of Malacca, the Spratly Islands and the Paracel Islands
fired the Springfield m1a recently. not a bad rifle.
for pistol, I like the Desert Eagle ;)
SAS
are you kidding SAS???
the desert eagle is pointless except for competition of showing off
Its for sure fun to shoot.
otherwise… Ruger .40 works well :)
SAS
there is no education problem in the US…
http://tinyurl.com/6jonkm
(303) Kettle – At least the reporter had the good sense to say “you decide.”
Damn…what’s the term…ehh.. in science for …. ‘white as$hole’??
(293) Scary, everytime I hear of drilling for more oil I am reminded of how we are on an unsustainable course towards a bad ending. Anyone seen “What a Way to Go- Life at the end of Empire”? Can be found at whatawaytogomovie.com. Disturbing, but by far the best doc I’ve seen showing at once all the issues we refuse to face living this “civilized” lifestyle.
Welcome to wow.street! If you believe there is a reason behind everything, then there is another new lesson for you – rationalMkt#101
# 3b Says:
July 22nd, 2008 at 6:58 pm
#287 orion: Exactly my point!! Must be that new math.
Nuclear is the only way to go. Physics101 folks. That’s where our energy origin from sun.
Unfortunately, we do not have an educated leader with enough courage to tell the public; or our public are so shortsighted that we could not accept the fact that mideast oil is not sustainable source of energy.
kettle(303)
I can’t believe it.
a scientific term “black hole” is now racist.
talk about stupidity, censorship, and thought control.
those blokes in Dallas are just flat out stupid and the media is equally as stupid to show it.
SAS
the more I think about it…
this has the smell of a govt distraction news piece.
SAS
Anti Trump #274,
How is the commute from Warren? How do you get to uptown/downtown manhattan?
I can’t tell you any more than you can figure out from NJ Transit’s website for yourself. I don’t work in Manhattan. I work in Warren.
(308) we may accept nuclear easier than you think. Already we turn a blind eye to chemical companies, pollution, high cancer rates, fake-processed food, etc…. Maybe having four heads from a nuke plant accident just isn’t that scary anymore. Problem is our whole way of life/culture is fundamentally unsustainable. Started being that way 10,000 years ago with beginning of agriculture. This current phase of human evolution is clearly showing we are not nearly as intelligent as we constantly prop ourselves up to be. Humility is what’s needed now more than ever, not more conquest and “growth”.
Grim,
Been thinking of the drop in inventory even as sales still did poorly. Maryland had the same issue this month.
We had a change in forclosure law that increased the number of days before a bank could forclose from 15 to 150 days. Virginia went from 15 to 45 days. I think this was in response to banks forclosing on you before your welfare checks could be cashed.
I haven’t found a good site to check the delinquency rate state by state, but the new law means that not only are 30 and 60 day delinquency rates important but look out for 90 and 120 too.
These changes to the laws will skew the C/S indicies for the next 5 months until the banks can start claiming the properties again. Washington, DC is on the C/S 10 and 20 index and includes the metro areas of MD and VA.
From the looks of it NJ has some of the toughest (for the banks) foreclosure laws in the country already. I found this site that gives you about 250 days before the bank gets possession if you don’t contest at all. I don’t know if this was a recent change or not though.
Guide to New Jersey Foreclosure Recovery
http://www.business.com/directory/law/state_law/new_jersey/practice_areas/commercial_law/real_property_law/foreclosure_recovery/
“It’s important to remember that you are not alone. New Jersey ranks 18th in the nation when it comes to the number of homes under foreclosure. Although panic may have already set in, know that several options exist to help distressed homeowners like yourself overcome foreclosure, even halting the process before damaging credit.
If you fear foreclosure looms near, consider the following New Jersey foreclosure information:
1. Time is on your side when it comes to New Jersey foreclosure proceedings. The state has the longest wait times—about 250 days in an uncontested foreclosure.
2. According to NJ foreclosure laws, all foreclosures are handled through the court system.
3. The NJ foreclosure process allows for the borrower to exercise the right of redemption during the 10 days following the sale of the foreclosure property at auction. “
Unfortunately, true humility is learned only by trial and error.
Of course, I wouldn’t know what true humility is.
I am woman, therefore, perfect.
;)
Hmmm,
Now that I think of it a 250 day wait time before the bank can claim your property means that you will lag considerably behind the national trend in forclosures.
Someone give these people the 411…
MLS# 2536431
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?mlslid=2536431&ml=3&typ=7&sid=86bb9f7af06f4677a6b24f383d65848a&lid=1100437460&lsn=2&srcnt=2#Detail
I’m far from perfect, and have learned some humility from the major mistakes I’ve made in the past. Just think we need more fundamental changes to solve the long term problems that we are facing. Just finding another source of energy to use won’t cut it…..and splitting atoms tends to frighten me, maybe we weren’t supposed to mess with that kind of stuff from the beginning???
So what do you guys think of these T Boone Pickens ads running on cable news networks?
Black hole is racist?
What color is the hole that sucks in all light and matter? Black. Is it a physical property not a political/racist statement.
Why do they refer to a distraction as a red herring? Not to insult red people but rather a herring that swims in the opposite direction is red because it shows its underbelly.
Just because your skin is black doesn’t mean you get to monopolize on the right to use the word black. If you want to play that game I will demand appologies every time you say white-head, white-hot or white-wash.
With that said, I think that under the right context that the man in the video could deserve an appology. If they were discussing how much money to allocate to a certain housing project known to have a large black population, and that obtuse council member said he “didn’t see a need to throw money into a black hole”, I would certainly see a need for a formal appology. Clearly black hole could be viewed with two different meanings here one of them not being astrological.
John #268
You have an 18 month old??
I assumed you were one of the old muppets up in the balcony of the theater.
Funny how you perceive people through their handles.
“one of the old muppets up in the balcony of the theater”
hey bloke,
I’ve been done traveled around the world, slept with many a women on my travels, bought up some gold when it bought the DOW, and help start up one of the largest telecomuncications companies (w/ IP we stole from Korea), while your father was still looking at the lingerie section in the Sears catalog.
ha ha ha
yup
:)
SAS
sas Kettle and Nom
On my adventures this weekend, I fired a 22, 357 and an M4. I had trouble with the M4 so I didn’t think touching the 308 was a good idea. I thought I’d stick with the 22. Yes it was the smallest and had least kickback but I’m small and don’t have a long reach which makes rifles hard to handle. Unless you guys have a way around that, I’m all ears.
#312
“Humility is what’s needed now more than ever, not more conquest and “growth”.”
So will you be among the first to voluntarily give up your car, heat, AC, refridgeration, food, etc?
lost, I always fired prone and learned to stretch my shoulder forward.
“but I’m small and don’t have a long reach which makes rifles hard to handle”
you shouldn’t be reachin… you should be holding it tight up against you while leaning into it, and squeeze that trigger (don’t stab it)
as for 22s, not very exciting.
perhaps you may need to learn good shooting posture & firearm safety before buying? then reevaulate…
I bet then..you won’t want that 22 anymore ;)
SAS
Pat and sas
I was taught very well this weekend- posture before aim. I was holding it as close to me as I could. But one hand does have to be farther away from my body.
I didn’t say anything about buying. However, DH thinks I am.
Actually DH thinks a 380 is good for me.
I would still recommend a safety course. i.e. several weekends, teach you how to shoot, safety, how to take apart your gun, clean it, and put it together.
not sure if they do that anymore, but if one is available, do it.
SAS
ok, this old muppet is going to bed.
I can’t wait till the weather cools,so I can drink my nightly ritual once again:
warm milk & cognac.
SAS
sas: tippling the JW Blue my in-laws gave me…
331 chi
Nice!!!
329 sas
Gonna get grim to teach me
back from the beach and awake- boy am I late to the party!
Chi – OK, I understand. Atleast you’re not “404”
Clot… ;-) gonna be interesting, to say the least.
Lost&Pat, My dad used to take me shooting. Now I gotta convince hubby to.
sl
303 Ket do you remember a few years back when someone said “White Christmas” is a racist song…?
http://www.charlotte.com/123/story/724218.html
http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080721/NEWS/807210334
Carnival barkers’ pleas fall on frugal ears
“The lottery actually lowered its anticipated profit this year because of the looming recession, but beat that budget by $600,000 and is down less than 1 percent on sales — all in scratch tickets that make up more than 70 percent of overall lottery sales…
Hard liquor sales for the first six months of the year are up 4 percent over the same time period last year. That increase is due to increased sales and price increases by the manufacturers. The number of cases sold in the first six months of this year was up 2 percent.”
http://waldo.villagesoup.com/Government/story.cfm?storyID=122238
http://www.philly.com/philly/business/20080723_Retailing__New_habit_of_discount_shopping_hits_all_economic_strata_.html
Retailing: New habit of discount shopping hits all economic strata.
“Three months ago, with Washington Mutual’s shares at $13.15, a group of investors led by Forth Worth, Texas-based TPG agreed to buy $7 billion of stock at $8.75, a 33 percent discount.”
“As losses mount, a clause in the TPG agreement makes it more costly for WaMu to raise capital or be acquired. If WaMu is sold for less than $8.75 a share or is forced to raise more than $500 million in equity, it must compensate TPG for the difference, according to filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.”
“We don’t know how their investment plays out, but we also don’t know how this affects WaMu to the extent they need to raise more capital,” said Steven Davidoff, law professor at Wayne State University Law School in Detroit. “They really can’t raise equity.”
“Washington Mutual is screwed. It cannot raise capital by equity deals even if it wants to. Those who translated “We have no plans to raise capital” into “No Need to Raise Capital” are sadly mistaken.”
“WaMu desperately needs to raise capital. However, those death spiral financing arrangements it made means WaMu can’t raise capital. And if WaMu can’t raise capital, it stands to reason it would have no plans to do so.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
slow news day?
From New York Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/23/business/23rates.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin
“slow news day?’
I hear realtors offices are packed. I guess everybody is out bidding?
Anyone that cares about the bill that is about to be passed in Congress today, you can visit:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/525-RED-ALERT-RAPE-BY-CONGRESS-IMMINENT.html
#340 – BC – Great article by Mish, I have to start reading him everyday again.
“July 23 (Bloomberg) — Fannie Mae, the largest U.S. mortgage finance company, couldn’t find a buyer who would pay $6,900 for the three-bedroom house at 1916 Prospect St. in Flint, Michigan. So broker Raymond Megie, who is handling the foreclosure sale, advised cutting the price to $5,000.”
“Megie still couldn’t sell it. “There’s oversupply,” he said. The home sold in 2005 for $110,000.”
“Fannie Mae acquired twice as many homes through foreclosure in the first quarter as it sold, regulatory filings show. The value of Fannie Mae’s foreclosed property doubled in the first quarter to $4.72 billion from $2.4 billion a year earlier, and the number of homes it owned climbed 64 percent to 43,167, according to a regulatory filing. The amount the company sold was $952 million, compared with $706 million a year earlier.”
“Part of the difficulty for all owners of foreclosed property, and not just Fannie Mae, is a shortage of qualified agents in the field who can sell the homes efficiently, said Jesse Ramirez, a broker associate at Re/Max Partners Real Estate in Corona, California.”
“They are all recent college grads without experience,” Ramirez said. “They have 300 files each and they’re overwhelmed. They don’t understand how the typical transaction goes. These people didn’t have jobs two years ago, not doing this.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aMz0dl3IdwjU&refer=home
The good fellas over at the Congress have decided that $10 Trillion debt would be a nice little challenge for us sheeple.
tosh [345],
I agree. I had to read that one twice. Wamu is screwed.
#274 Anti-trump,
Depends where on Warren you live. Warren is sprawling and shaped weird. the house on Mountain Ave you would probably be better off driving to Summit. About 15 to 20 minute ride. The Mountain ave housw would be near the Gladstone line and could catch a train at Murray Hill, Berkeley Heights, New Providence, but that train doesn’t run very often and stops every 4 minutes. It takes 45 minutes to go from Basking ridge to Summit, yet you can drive it in 25 minutes