From Standard and Poor’s:
Data through May 2008, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show annual declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States generally continued to worsen in May 2008. For the second straight month, all 20 MSAs posted annual declines, nine of which are posting record lows and 10 of which are in double-digits. Both the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite are reporting record low annual declines.
Data junkies can find the underlying index data here:
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices – May 2008 (XLS)
From CNBC:
Home Prices Fall in May, Erasing Four Years of Gains
Prices of U.S. single-family homes plunged at a record pace in May from a year earlier, with each of the 20 regions monitored showing annual declines for a second month, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller home price indexes reported on Tuesday.
From Bloomberg:
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home-Price Index Fell 15.8% in May
Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell at a faster pace in May, indicating the three-year housing slump has not stabilized, a private survey showed today.
The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 15.8 percent from a year earlier, the biggest decline since records began in 2001, after decreasing 15.2 percent in April. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007.
Stricter loan rules, rising mortgage rates and an increase in foreclosures are making it more difficult for prospective buyers to get financing, hurting home sales. The prolonged real-estate slump, along with higher fuel prices a shrinking job market, is weighing on consumers and the economy.
“Prices will need to fall further to help stimulate demand,” Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York, said before the report. “With supply overhang still huge and mortgage financing tougher to obtain, home prices are going to decline considerably further in the quarters ahead.”
Home prices decreased 0.9 percent in May from the prior month after declining 1 percent in April, the report showed. The figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal effects so economists prefer to focus on year-over-year changes instead of month to month.
The index was forecast to fall 16 percent from a year earlier, after a previously reported 15.3 percent drop in the 12 months ended in April, according to the median forecast of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from declines of 14.8 percent to 17 percent.
From MarketWatch:
Home prices fall 15.8% in past year: Case-Shiller
Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities have fallen a record 15.8% in the past year, as prices fell in all 20 cities tracked by the Case-Shiller home price index, Standard & Poor’s reported Tuesday. Home prices fell 1% in May compared with April. Prices in seven cities are down more than 20% in the past year.
From the AP:
S&P: Home prices drop by record 15.8 pct. in May
A closely watched housing index shows home prices fell by the steepest rate ever in May, as the housing slump continued to deepen nationwide.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city index, released Tuesday, is off 15.8 percent for May compared with a year ago, a record decline since its inception in 2000. The narrower 10-city index has fallen 16.9 percent, its biggest decline in its 21-year history.No city in the Case-Shiller 20-city index saw price gains in May, the second straight month that’s happened. The monthly indices have not recorded an overall home price increase in any month since August 2006.
“Prices will need to fall further to help stimulate demand,” Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York, said before the report.
What he said.
Dive Dive Dive!
What was the % decline for the MY metro area?
What was the % decline for the MY metro area?
I’ll have the updated price graph posted tomorrow morning.
The NAB (National Australia bank) write down of 10 cents on the dollar was the flake that set off the avalanche. Last nights Merryl announcement of 22 cents on the dollar is the beginning of the slide.
It will be interesting to see what paulson, bernanke and friends do to try and slow the avalanche that is coming.
S&P CS NY Metro Area Commutable
May 2007 – 210.51
May 2008 – 193.88
7.9% Year over Year Decline
June 2006 – 215.83 (peak)
May 2008 – 193.88 (current)
10.17% Peak to Current Decline
10% down, 15% to go…..
a piece from CBS4
These numbers are sobering: If you are a homeowner reading this right now, when you wake up in the morning, the value of your house will have dropped about 45 dollars. And that’s if you sleep just 8 hours. If that isn’t disturbing enough, wait until you see how much home prices have dropped in the past 2 years.
“I knew it was softening,” said investor Philip Logue. ” I just didn’t realize how quickly, how fast the market was dropping.” When Logue put his Coral Gables house on the market, he thought for sure it would sell. He started at $650,000 in 2006. A couple of years later, and a $175,000 price drop. He’s now renting the house out.
“I was really surprised,” said Logue. ” Especially at the end when we really dropped our pants down and I felt we were giving it away, and we still couldn’t sell it.” Numbers out from housingtracker.com show Logue isn’t alone. The average home value in South Florida has dropped $100,000 in just two years. That’s roughly $4,100 a month, $136 a day, or $5.70 every hour.
When a homeowner is losing $5.70 an hour right now, renters actually are the ones who are making money. The person who this really effects, is anyone who bought a home in the last 3 years. They moved into a house that has dropped in value now by six figures.
emphasis mine
Make me proud Jon..
Corzine calls for another stimulus package to energize national economy
Gov. Jon Corzine said today that America can begin to pull itself out of the economic doldrums with another short-term stimulus plan and a nationwide infrastructure program to spur job creation.
After joining other “core economic advisers” to Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama Monday at a meeting in Washington, the governor said a consensus emerged that an additional stimulus plan is needed as a bridge to long-term recovery. The IRS had already issued $91.8 billion in stimulus checks under President Bush’s relief plan by July 11.
The declines are just getting started around here.
S&P CS NY Metro Area Commutable
May 2007 – 210.51
May 2008 – 193.88
7.9% Year over Year Decline
June 2006 – 215.83 (peak)
May 2008 – 193.88 (current)
10.17% Peak to Current Decline
Kettle, get your tinfoil hat out, you’ll love the graphs.
http://standeyo.com/NEWS/08_Food_Water/080729.doomsday-food.html
bi: (37 prior thread)”liberal media got punished by free market:”
And just look at that conservative media go.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=NYT#chart1:symbol=nyt;range=1y;compare=nws;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Shutup ya moron.
Perhaps the “internets” has something to do with the decline of newsprint and not partisan politics.
from the daily mail (UK)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1038445/Why-millions-people-just-11-days-financial-ruin.html?ref=patrick.net
It found the average weekly spend is £333.56 including essentials, such as council tax, luxuries, such as eating out, and debt repayments. But a shocking 36 per cent of people have less than £500 in savings to use in an emergency. As a result, they could survive for just 11 days before their finances would implode. On average, women would be much less well prepared to cope than men.
The US has a negative savings rate; does that mean that US citizens have a negative number of days they could survive before financial ruin??? oh wait, that means that most americans are already in financial ruin…… UH-OH
Is the index inflation adjusted? At 193, have we rolled back to March 2005 in inflation adjusted dollars?
kettle1,
the interesting piece of the Merrill deal, was not only the price of the sale, but more astonishingly the financing. Merrill provided the financing and it was secured by the POS CDO’s they just sold off their books. That’s a serious writedown and distressed sale.
S&P CS NY Metro Area Commutable
Year over Year Change
Jan 07 -0.34%
Feb 07 -0.91%
Mar 07 -0.91%
Apr 07 -1.56%
May 07 -2.35%
Jun 07 -2.94%
Jul 07 -3.20%
Aug 07 -3.35%
Sep 07 -3.61%
Oct 07 -4.08%
Nov 07 -4.50%
Dec 07 -5.29%
Jan 08 -5.64%
Feb 08 -6.62%
Mar 08 -7.47%
Apr 08 -7.95%
May 08 -7.90%
To ALL
I am repeating my thank you from the previous thread so that everyone will see it.
Everyone was extremely helpful with the pediatrician suggestions. The kettle family says THANK YOOU!!!!
New York down 7.9%. Great, now that poorly-built 1BR “luxury” condo shack is available only for $1.3M.
I think I’m going to buy two of them!
Is the index inflation adjusted?
No
Let me get this straight.
Tomasek bought MER at $48 per share because Thain said that he was on the verge of insovency. Tomasek demands insurance against price drop and they get it. Nice work Thain.
They then Short the heck out of MER and price drops to where the Billions pumped at $48 run out. Now they need more.
Tomasek makes out like a bandit cause they made $28 per share in insurance and $24 from shorting. Not bad for some new capitalistic rookies.
Now they’re playing with house money and guess what they’re Short MER today. They don’t even have to borrow the shares.
Thain is an idiot. BC go up to the Presidential suite and choke the SOB.
Is this a by-product of Paulson’s “containment”?
From NY Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/29/nyregion/29paterson.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin
New York down 7.9%. Great, now that poorly-built 1BR “luxury” condo shack is available only for $1.3M.
Condos are not included in the index, nor are coops, new construction, or any property that can’t be identified as single family. Thus the name is a bit of a misnomer, since much of the NYC market housing stock isn’t going to be included. I like to look at this index as if it were a donut surrounding NYC. (Mmmm, donuts)
Nobody ever said Manhattan was going to be a cheap place to live.
HArd,
true, Merrill just Cut And RunTM. the question is how long before the crowd follow Merrill out the door? The last one out gets stuck with the bill!
NJl$rd,
Thanks for your explanation, but I fear you’ve read too much into my rambling and see something that’s not there.
I’m fully aware that the fact that our populace is getting poorer is not the fault of emerging economies. In fact, the blame lies squarely on our own shoulders. You mention living beyond one’s means; that is one root cause of the mess we’re in today.
In fact, I very much agree with your assessment of a sense pf entitlement being a major problem today. I’m very much aware of this, and wasn’t under the impression that the truth was “cool and sexy.”
This is why I reacted as I did, as did others.
NJl$rd Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 9:12 am
Ok I own you a better explanation Sybarite101X & other gangs:
Why Americans is getting poorer? Your post painted a perception that problem is from developing countries and globalization. This is simply not the case – sorry economic 101 I’ll argue with you in anther thread if you want. If you could remember correctly, we as the capitalists pushed for the free-trade in the first place. And as a result, majority of us lives a luscious lifestyle never seem in human history before. OK a lot of us lives a lifestyle beyond our means that’s another problem. I’m concerned of the sustainability of ways of living in general in this country – how can we justify living better than 99% rest people of this earth anyway.
In the end, my conclusion is simple: There is no point pointing finger to others for our own problems.
This is the typical ENTITLEMENT psychology process for our own problems. You can joke about it, snuff it whatever. But it does not solve the problem. The true is not always cool and sexy, is it?
This ENTITLEMENT is one of the many root-causes of the current ill in this country. Where are the virtues of thrift and hard-working that once were cornerstone of this great country? Those are the things need to be promoted to save the empire.
No funds to lend to 40,000 students
State of MA runs out of money and makes the announcment right before tuition is due. Nice work.
My favorite quote “We will continue looking for money.”
I said it before our entire higher ed and their tuitions are a bubble waiting to burst.
Sorry I forgot the
link.http://www.boston.com/business/personalfinance/articles/2008/07/29/no_funds_to_lend_to_40000_students/
12#, stu, but in a long run, using your same example, the conservative media have conserved the value at least:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=NYT#chart3:symbol=nyt;range=5y;compare=nws;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
“Mar 08 -7.47%
Apr 08 -7.95%
May 08 -7.90%”
Weeeeee, we hit bottom in Apr 08. Time for the hookers and blow to start flowing on wall st again.
make,
the tuition bubble is already starting to burst. Rutgers is currently over enrolling the majority of classes and programs because of the drop off in state aid. They know that they cannot pull the money from the students ( increasing tuition substantially) so they are trying to squeak by on volume. This will not work for very long as both the students and the faculty and already unhappy and restless about this.
I a year or 2 when parents/students cant get student loans the second wave will hit in that the volume will no longer be available!
SO what does the US do when one of our few assets (our higher ED system) collapses? Ivy league isnt going anywhere, but the rest are going to take a big hit.
Bi:
You give politicians ‘way’ to much credit. Not everything in this world is impacted directly by the 2 parties. For a change, try to think about current issues without attempting to put the blame on Bush or Obama. Then you might find out the source of the problem rather than simply regurgitating the BS you see in the media.
Of course, putting the blame on Bush or Obama sells more newspapers, for sheeple love to blame the celebrity politicians. Personally, it is the businesses of America that run the show and they are non-partisan. They simply support whomever looks like they are going to provide the most generous ROI. The presidential election is just a sideshow to entertain the sheeple. Don’t forget that!
From MarketWatch:
U.S. consumer confidence ticks up in July
U.S. consumer confidence ticked up in July, the Conference Board reported Tuesday, while the level remained relatively low and job concerns persisted. The July consumer confidence index rose to 51.9 from a June reading that was revised to 51.0 from a prior estimate of 50.4. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected a July reading of 50.0. The percentage of consumers saying jobs are “hard to get” rose to 30.3% in July from 29.7% in June
I’m in Mod Grim.
folks, again you have to look at the numbers under the headline. you will see overall decline rate is less than April and more areas are turning to positive: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Dallas, Denver, Minneapolis and Portland. How about NYC metro? decline of marginal error
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_072943.pdf
I’ve been reading a lot of suggestions to the banks to do exactly what Thain did because soon nobody’s going to want the equity and there certainly isn’t going to be any favorable debt financing. It actually was a good move to be first.
Check out all the deck chair shuffling going on over at Merrill.
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20080728006329&newsLang=en
“SO what does the US do when one of our few assets (our higher ED system) collapses? Ivy league isnt going anywhere, but the rest are going to take a big hit.”
Good news for homeowners. There may actually be competition among plumbers, painters and electricians once again.
Reuters:
Analyst sees $8 billion Citi writeoff after Merrill move
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/07/29/sp-us-home-prices-drop-158-in-may/#comment-205377
“July 29 (Reuters) – Deutsche Bank analyst Mike Mayo said on Tuesday that Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C – News) may post third-quarter write-downs of about $8 billion from its exposure to collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), a day after Merrill Lynch & Co (NYSE:MER – News) agreed to sell its CDOs for just 22 cents on the dollar.”
It’s come clean time, or is it?
#5 Kettle…I think there was a comment that some of the debt they expect a 100% loss on as well…
loved seeing Corzine get slapped by Charlie G. on CNBC this morning. Anyone catch that, clot would have loved it!
The value of our houses can not drop! We do not want poor people going to our blue ribbon prestigious school systems. We must act NOW to protect our children! Someone please think of the children!!
This is a classic. They will study these moves at business schools all accross the world.
In yesterday’s statement, Merrill said it agreed to sell $30.6 billion of collateralized debt obligations — the mortgage-related bonds that have caused most of the firm’s losses — for $6.7 billion. The buyer is an affiliate of Lone Star Funds, a Dallas-based investment manager.
Merrill will provide financing for about 75 percent of the purchase price, according to the statement. The financing is secured only by the assets being sold, meaning Merrill would absorb any losses on the CDOs beyond $1.68 billion.
My Comment: Desperate mothers do desperate things, such as provide 75% of the financing to sell CDOs at 22 cents on the dollar.
Lone star is buying $30 billion worth of CDO’s for $1.68 Billion in cash.
If they default on this transaction. remmeber it was 75% financed. Mer is dead.
Lone star knows this. Why wouldn’t they short MER and default? By the way did I say Thain is an idiot.
Corzine slap –
Literally or Figuratively? I was behind Corzine given he ran GS and figured he might induce some more standard business practices into government, like Bloomberg. Unfortunately I was very wrong. Would love to slap him literally for making me the fool.
hmmm, market is looking up lately
http://bp3.blogger.com/_9ZzZquaXrR8/SI5F5iNJ4sI/AAAAAAAABYI/oY0VQsFXQqo/s1600-h/finanJul28-3.jpg
Hard Place,
“Corzine slap”
So you are the fool that voted for Corzine?
Heeeeeeeee Heeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Thanks for raising my sales tax.
“The value of our houses can not drop! We do not want poor people going to our blue ribbon prestigious school systems. We must act NOW to protect our children! Someone please think of the children!!”
Pretty simple solution. House prices drop along with tighter lending standards so poor people can’t buy the cheaper houses anyway. We basically go back to 2000ish pricing and 1990’s lending.
That way you and your neighbors won’t become the poor people too.
I think after the housing bill takes effect and banks get some money for their bad loans and sell off some REO’s that’s when we’ll see some substantial drops.
Corzine slap,
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=806898015&play=1
“No funds to lend to 40,000 students”
But they have free health insurance courtesy of MA.
So we will have 40,000 healthy dummies. Maybe they can move to NJ and cut my grass.
From the WSJ:
Fannie Mae’s Political Immunity
July 29, 2008; Page A16
President Bush is poised to sign the housing and Fannie Mae bailout bill, after the Senate passed it with 72 votes on the weekend. But an underreported part of this story is that Majority Leader Harry Reid refused to allow a vote on Republican Jim DeMint’s amendment to bar political donations and lobbying by Fannie and its sibling, Freddie Mac.
This is a rare parliamentary move for a body in which even Senators in the minority party have long been able to force votes. The strong-arm play illustrates how politically powerful these government-sponsored enterprises remain even after going hat in hand to taxpayers. This has implications in the days ahead, because the Beltway battle now shifts to who will be the new regulator for the mortgage giants and how much political insulation he’ll have from Fannie and Freddie pressure.
We believe in the right of individuals and businesses to lobby Congress. But with Fan and Fred now explicitly guaranteed by taxpayers, letting them ladle cash all over Washington amounts to using government-guaranteed profits to lobby for continued government protection. Congress sets the rules in favor of Fan and Fred, which then repay the Members with cash from their rigged profit stream. This is the government lobbying itself for more government.
And, oh, what a stream of political cash it is. First, there are Fannie and Freddie’s political action committees, which have already distributed roughly $800,000 to U.S. House and Senate Members this election cycle. Nearly half of the Senators have received funds and almost all of the money is directed to incumbents. Fannie gave $10,000 to Speaker Nancy Pelosi, $10,000 to third-ranking House Democrat Rahm Emanuel, $5,000 to Barney Frank, $10,000 to Republican House whip Roy Blunt, $8,500 to Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and $7,500 to Minority Leader John Boehner and . . . you get the picture.
Click here1 for a compendium of our recent Fannie and Freddie coverage.
Then there are the “charitable” foundations. Freddie Mac’s foundation handed out $25 million to political groups, think tanks and other Beltway outfits in 2007 alone, more than any other foundation in the country, according to the Washington Business Journal. Guess which foundation ranked number two? Yep, Fannie Mae’s, which gave out $21 million. The foundations grew thanks to gifts of stock during the companies’ heyday before their accounting scandals and the housing bust. Last year, as political scrutiny increased, Fannie closed down its foundation and now runs its tax-deductible donations through the company itself.
Most of this foundation money goes to charity groups uninvolved in politics and policy. But tens of millions of dollars find their way to policy advocacy groups on the left and even some on the right. (See nearby table.) Affiliates of Acorn, the left-wing activist group, have received multiple $100,000 grants for their “housing” activities.
Jesse Jackson’s Citizenship Education Fund, an offshoot of his Rainbow/PUSH Coalition, has received more than $500,000 from Fannie and Freddie since 1996. A decade ago Mr. Jackson accused Fannie and Freddie of discriminatory lending practices. Those charges of racism went away once the grant money started flowing. Groups on the left complain about “corporate welfare” all the time, but curiously nary a one has opposed the Fannie and Freddie bailout — which amounts to one of the biggest corporate welfare gifts in U.S. history.
Mr. DeMint has pledged to offer his amendment to end Fannie and Freddie lobbying to every Senate bill through Election Day. We wish him luck, but he’s up against the reality that Congressional leaders and the companies want to return as quickly as possible to the business of greasing each other’s palms. The companies are even hosting swanky receptions at the Republican and Democratic nominating conventions in a few weeks. Consider it a Fannie and Freddie “thank you” for their bailout.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121728651034091275.html?mod=hps_us_at_glance_opinion
So Fannie/Freddie Mac they are funding various leftists grassroot organisations (including voter fraud group Acorn), and this is ok, but when another grassroots organisation (stop the bailout) was getting money from a conservative backer, it was fanatically attacked here (by Frank and others). I think I get the picture.
Bush should just veto this bank bailout.
It’s not even 11AM and there are 2 Posts and close to 150 comments? What’s a girl to do…
information overload…overloa…overlo…overl………
Rambling did not solve the problem.
Just kidding: I did ramble all the time so I know. Point taken though.
#24 Sybarite101 X Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 9:52 am
NJl$rd,
Thanks for your explanation, but I fear you’ve read too much into my rambling and see something that’s not there.
In my humble opinion, Fan and Fred already outgrew the original goals of GSE. Now it’s the right time to scrap them. Either tank them or sell them in piece would be the right plan. To use them as coolaid is the most irresponsible way for the politicians done to the tax payers.
I can see the beauracrats laughing all the ways to the bank…
#49 scribe Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 10:47 am
From the WSJ:
Fannie Mae’s Political Immunity
July 29, 2008; Page A16
President Bush is poised to sign the housing and Fannie Mae bailout bill, after the Senate passed it with 72 votes on the weekend. But an underreported part of this story is that Majority Leader Harry Reid refused to allow a vote on Republican Jim DeMint’s amendment to bar political donations and lobbying by Fannie and its sibling, Freddie Mac.
[53],
They outgrew their original role when LBJ made them a quasi, implied, govt entity. LBJ was Enron before Enron existed. He moved Fannie/Freddie off the govt’s balance sheet. OOPS, back again.
I need help with a comp buster. Can anyone tell me about MLS 2483381 in Harding NJ. I know you guys will give me the scoop.
Please note that home prices are not falling in prestigious neighborhoods* with good school districts^.
*Prestigious neighborhood: The town where you live.
^Good school district: The school district in which children in your household are or would be required to attend school.
27 bi
You’re comparing apples and oranges.
You’ve already linked to the Moonie Times once today – why not compare the NY Times and the Moonie Times, rather than compare a newspaper to a TV network?
I think I know the answer.
37 stu
“Analyst sees $8 billion Citi writeoff after Merrill move”
That will NEVER happen!! bi (and S&P) said there would be no more writedowns!
re 33
‘overall decline rate is less than April’
Watch out for the ‘decreasing rate of increase’ fallacy.
re: Fannie/Freddie Mac
Worse than you think according to Jonathan Weil over at Bloomberg, they are playing accounting tricks that would make Kenneth Lay blush.
Quote//
Going Negative
Without that $14.3 billion of tax adjustments, the fair value of Fannie’s net assets would have been negative $2.1 billion, by my math. Exclude deferred-tax assets entirely, and it would have been negative $19.9 billion as of March 31. (Fannie raised $7.4 billion of additional capital in May.)
As for Freddie, it showed $16.6 billion of net deferred-tax assets under GAAP as of March 31. Like Fannie, it put deferred taxes in “other assets” on its fair-value balance sheet.
Freddie said its other assets had a GAAP carrying value of $31.6 billion and a $42.5 billion fair value. By my calculations, using the methodology in Freddie’s footnotes, it looks like Freddie wrote up the deferred-tax assets on its fair-value balance sheet by about $10.1 billion.
So, take out the tax write-up, and Freddie’s net assets had a fair value of negative $15.3 billion. Exclude deferred-tax assets entirely, and that falls to negative $31.9 billion.
UNQUOTE//
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_weil&sid=aryKxwWwjIDQ
55
MLS#: 2483381
22 GLENEAGLES DR
Harding, NJ
OLP: $1,795,000
LP: $1,699,000
Taxes $14,234
Previously listed under:
MLS#: 2426461
OLP: $1,895,000
LP: $1,795,000
Expired 1/16/08
Current list 10% off original list.
Grim #60 in moderation re: bloomberg article
on Fannie and Freddie.
Expanded standard deduction for homeowners: An additional standard deduction for homeowners is also included in the bill, providing a standard deduction of up to $500 for single filers and $1,000 for those filing jointly, Scharin said. This will likely affect a subset of homeowners who don’t itemize, including those with small mortgages, retirees whose homes are paid off or first-time buyers who bought late in the year, he added.
What’s the underlying assets for those CDO? It sound like Lone Star got a good deal in a fire sale:
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200807282158DOWJONESDJONLINE000609_FORTUNE5.htm
Lone Star Unafraid Of Investing Where Others Won’t
Dow Jones
July 28, 2008: 09:58 PM EST
SAN FRANCISCO -(Dow Jones)- Lone Star Funds isn’t afraid of going it alone.
On Monday, New York-based investment bank Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER) said it was selling a portfolio of collateralized debt obligations with an original face value of $30.6 billion to the Dallas-based private equity firm for $6.7 billion. The CDO’s, essentially bonds collateralized with other forms of debt, are so risky the struggling broker had already written their value down to $11.1 billion as of the end of the second quarter.
Merrill’s CDO portfolio isn’t the o
#42 make money Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 10:32 am
Lone star is buying $30 billion worth of CDO’s for $1.68 Billion in cash.
If they default on this transaction. remmeber it was 75% financed. Mer is dead.
Lone star knows this. Why wouldn’t they short MER and default? By the way did I say Thain is an idiot.
repost re: Fannie and Freddie
Worse than you think according to Jonathan Weil over at Bloomberg, they are playing accounting tricks that would make Kenneth Lay blush.
http://tinyurl.com/5w3tz3
Frank –
A raise of sales tax isn’t a bad thing to get by some difficult times, but that is wise only if you start tightening the belt. Corzine business acumen didn’t translate into the political arena. He only got sucked into the Matrix of NJ politics. We might need to hit the reset button on this state.
poor jon,,, wacked good. he’s another one
selling the legit taxpayers down the river.
max,
weren’t you mark at one point?
22 cents on a dollars leave Lone Star a large margin of safety. The financial analysis of this transaction will be very interesting.
Thank you Sybarite101 X. You guys are Good!
-55
Prestigious. HA HA, underwater subprime sludge more likely, here is an example of the subprime sludge in BC.
In Ho & Yoon-Hye Park paid $1.36 million in April 2006 for 349 E. Saddle River Road, Upper Saddle River
That house is a builder McMansion thrown up on empty land next to METTOWEE FARMS, they most likely got builder financing with 5% down and can’t move as they are underwater and no one wants their brand new dream home. The identical home next door at 345 E. Saddle River Road is for sale for $1,275 million and it is just sitting and sitting and sitting. Zeki and Semra Ceilkbas paid $975 for their mcmansion and spent a lot of home equity money on their new home to finish the basement, furnish and put in amazing landscaping. Their price is what they need to get out whole and they are looking to downsize. Not exactly the Upper Saddle River Mansion crowd of the 1990’s. Their are lots of sludge in rich BC who can sell below a certain price that gives the illusion prices are holding up.
Upper Saddle River schools better be hiring some teachers who speak mandarian and spanish if they want to speak to their new crop of students come fall.
65 HP: There is no such thing as “temporary tax”.
Don’t we still have a tax to fund the Spanish-American war?
Controlling spending in NJ is impossible but only because of politics. It would be easy to fix the NJ economy ie
1) Deny public benefits to illegals,
2) make public union benefits comparable to average private sector benefits (salary, health care, retirement age),
3) end judicial activism (ie where judges make executive decisions like how many billions must he spend in this or that school district),
4) automatic 25-year prison sentence for corruption in public office (all corruption, including police officers getting mail order Masters degree and getting 25% raise etc etc)
#42 make money Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 10:32 am
Lone star is buying $30 billion worth of CDO’s for $1.68 Billion in cash.
If they default on this transaction. remmeber it was 75% financed. Mer is dead.
Lone star knows this. Why wouldn’t they short MER and default? By the way did I say Thain is an idiot.
If it s good business for Lone Star to default, then why is such a horrible thing for a home owner to individual to default ona a debt such as a home/car/credit card debt?
It seem quite hypocritical to me. why should a individual not take such actions if it is in their best financial interest?
Fiddy,
Thanks for the response from yesterday.
“automatic 25-year prison sentence for corruption in public office (all corruption, including police officers getting mail order Masters degree and getting 25% raise etc etc)”
thats a pretty stiff penalty?
also, good luck getting a judge to inforce that, as they tend to follow the good ol’ boy system.
SAS
first they would need to get rid of corrupt judges (legislature should be able to terminate the underlying positions if not directly judges themselves).
jamil,
I take it you’ve never head the saying:
“you can’t fight city hall”
:)
SAS
well, you can fight city hall, but people who do usually end up missing, supposly “commit suicide”, or end up as a floater in the meadowlands.
SAS
off-topic trivia question: If leopard and crocodile are fighting, which one wins?
Leopard vs crocodile
Amazing pictures.
or they give up the fight because they recieved a pretty strong message telling them otherwise.
I got one of those messages once.
In a hotel room in Vegas…let me tell ya… its changes things real quick.
if I goto the gtg, I’ll tell you all about it.
and when these things happen, the police will straight up tell you…. “I wouldn’t report this if I was you”.
yup
SAS
Jamil,
Enough with your mindless talking points.
We are all certainly against wasteful gov’t spending and some of us are not exactly happy with immigration issues, but where exactly do you get the notion that eliminating public benefits to illegal immigrants will solve the states budgetary problems. Please cite the cost of public benefits to illegal immigrants in NJ. I don’t think you can. And no, Rush, Sean, et al are not reliable sources.
As for unions, I know your not a native of this country so perhaps you might want to acquaint yourself with the history of working conditions in this country. The advances in worker rights that unions were responsible for have benefited all workers.
Sure we can point to anecdotal evidence of excess and corruption, but that does not make a sound argument. Just because you are a former commie there is no need to bluster to prove you capitalist bona fides.
As to judicial activism – I guess as a former commie you are used to regurgitating propaganda to please your perceived overlords, again I ask you to define and show judicial activism, which I’m sure you attribute to ‘liberals’. What do you make of the recent justice dept. report on hiring of attorneys and judges under the current administration?
Automatic prison – hey how about stoning, or cutting off a hand, or taking an eye, that would show them right?
Please Jamil stop crapping on our lawn. Find yourself an suitable right wing/conservative country and move there.
H
80 sas
You better make that gtg. I want to hear this story. :)
if a man and a python fight who wins>
http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=13&art_id=ct20010109211006326S520840
MediCaid is killing states. This is major problem in NJ, too. (I also remember NYT article last year stating that up to $40B each year in NY medicaid goes to fraud).
As Arizona Goes, So Goes the Nation – How Medicaid Ruins the States’ Fiscal Health
“The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has issued a bleak report on the long-term financial prospects of state and local governments..
Arizona’s fiscal crisis is due chiefly to the state’s expansion of its Medicaid programs. That decision, in turn, is largely attributable to the perverse incentives created by Medicaid’s inordinately generous transfers to the states. To oversimplify slightly, states get into fiscal trouble not because the feds shirk their obligations, but because they have made promises to pay in the first place. While Arizona’s problems are exacerbated by a dysfunctional political system, the state’s predicament illustrates a pervasive structural crisis.
Medicaid is an uncapped entitlement program, meaning that total as well as federal costs are unconstrained by any federal fiscal limit.
Unsurprisingly, Medicaid expenditures constitute an ever-growing share of state expenditures. In 1987, that share amounted to slightly more than 10 percent. In 1992, the number was 17.8 percent; in 2006, 22.2 percent“
Wouldn’t Jamil have to deport himself. Sounds like a funky foreign name to me.
i suggest the following
1. we microchip every american citizen ( that way we can easily tell citizen from illegal immigrant)
2. Any financial transaction must take place using your unique microchip ID.
3. Any individual who is caught without a microchip is shot on sight ( as you must be illegal)
4. All judges must be vetted by the current dominant political party in order to avoid “activist judges”
/sarcasm off
hirono: first, I’m not a former commie and never lived behind the iron curtain country if that’s what you are implying. Besides, I arrived this country as a bill clinton democrat, believing NYT was a honest and objective media. Little did I know.
As for cost of illegals: Who do you believe pays for illegals’ healthcare (ER, medicaid etc), schools, bi-lingual services, prisons, extra police needed etc etc? Illegals are, well, illegals and every cent spent there is wasted. As for someone who spent thousands of dollars getting visa and LPR, followed every stupid rule, always paid my (high) taxes and never intend to spend public money or demand taxpayer funded bi-lingual services, this makes be sick.
America’s house price time bomb
With the American housing market in its worst crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s, President Bush is expected to sign into law a massive new government intervention designed to slow the slide…
…
Is the bank going to pay for my retirement because I was a good girl and paid my mortgage …
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7529277.stm
Where’s Pret?
Manhattan office leasing slows
http://ny.therealdeal.com/articles/manhattan-office-leasing-slows
Can we just deport all of them except the really hot girls between 18 and 30 years of age?
jamil Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
hirono: first, I’m not a former commie and never lived behind the iron curtain country if that’s what you are implying. Besides, I arrived this country as a bill clinton democrat, believing NYT was a honest and objective media. Little did I know.
As for cost of illegals: Who do you believe pays for illegals’ healthcare (ER, medicaid etc), schools, bi-lingual services, prisons, extra police needed etc etc? Illegals are, well, illegals and every cent spent there is wasted. As for someone who spent thousands of dollars getting visa and LPR, followed every stupid rule, always paid my (high) taxes and never intend to spend public money or demand taxpayer funded bi-lingual services, this makes be sick.
Jamil,
You sound like a hater. Hi hater. Hi hater.
Don’t hate the player, hate the game.
make
Somewhat off topic. Bennigans goes kaput. I know the restaurant business was having problem, I didn’t hear anything about Bennigans being distressed though.
Talked to a couple of friends of mine who had relocated to Hong Kong two years back. They had decided to keep their houses in Tenafly and Teaneck respectively and rent them. Now their renters are both months in arrears, apparently due to the economic down turn. They can’t sell their houses unless they go upside down. Guess holding on to the house wasn’t such a peachy idea after all. Does anyone know if this is a unique phenomenon or not? If not, I expect rents to start dropping soon as well…
#92 ….business was having problems. Should be plural.
Apparently Bennigans also owns Steak & Ale, which is gone now as well.
jamil,
Since John McCain was born at Coco Solo Naval Air Station[3] in the Panama Canal Zone, not the USA, he can not be the president.
Looks like Obama is almost the President.
Please double check my calcs below but looks like we’ve got some seriously increasing declines. Although the pace of declines looks to be slowing. Any thoughts on that?
S&P 20 City Composite YOY Change
November 2007 -7.65%
December 2007 -9.00%
January 2008 -10.66%
February 2008 -12.69%
March 2008 -14.33%
April 2008 -15.22%
May 2008 -15.49%
Jamil,
So the American Enterprise Institute is your source. Ha-ha-ha!
So you came to this country already brainwashed or unable to do any critical thinking.
I arrived this country as a bill clinton democrat, believing NYT was a honest and objective media.
So you replaced one ideology for another, no heavy lifting required. I don’t know or really care where you came from but in the USA most people appreciate critical thinking. One does not take one source, whether the NYT or AEI, and simply regurgitate what they tell you. Try a variety of sources and come to your own conclusions. If your weren’t a commie before you certainly seem primed to become one. After all you have no point of view to call your very own. As for public benefits, if your jealous of illegals using them why not try acquiring some of that sweet manna yourself. Do you really compare your situation to the lowest members of society and feel left out. Try living that way if it so enticing to you and you believe that they are living the good life getting something for nothing. There are many, including myself, who are aware of the issues surrounding illegal immigration, however we do not delude ourselves thinking that it is the central issue effecting so many aspects of the challenges we face. You have a lazy intellect and should be rather ashamed to bare it. Good thing intelligence was not a criteria for your admittance to this country or else you’d still be “home”. Please stop crapping on our lawn.
make (20)-
“Tomasek makes out like a bandit cause they made $28 per share in insurance and $24 from shorting. Not bad for some new capitalistic rookies.”
They turn American, while all of us turn Japanese. Thain is a hack and a rube.
“Steak & Ale”
Tosh,
Haven’t heard that one in awhile. Comical.
Stu (37)-
Gotta love the price discovery process.
scribe :74
Did you find someone with Middlesex MLS access?? I have a question of my own to ask.
Why do I have a feeling that John Corzine and the NJ state pension fund bought some Merrill shares today so that they can dollar cost average down?
That’s what happens when you elect crooks to run the state. after they’re done running sh_t there is nothing left to do but light a match and blow the joint.
96: hirono: “So the American Enterprise Institute is your source. Ha-ha-ha!”
Do you dispute the facts? Is this your idea of “critical thinking”? If the source is not committed left-wing source you disapprove the facts? The facts are stubborn thing, hirono.
Even New York Times had an article last year (sorry, it was 2005) stating the same (medicaid out of control costs and massive fraud ie non-eligible receivers).
Here is your favorite left-wing source talking about the same issue:
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/18/nyregion/18medicaid.html
“The program, the largest of its kind in the nation, has become a $44.5 billion target for egregious abuse..So we’re talking about 40 percent of all claims are questionable,” Mr. Mehmet said – an amount that would approach $18 billion a year.”
But I’m sure it is different in NJ. No fraud there.
Clot,
Hey if Merrill got 22 cents for their junk and yelled fire in th emovie theater first while they were running out the door, then what do you think the Citi and Wachovia can get for their junk?
1.3 trillion level 3 assets that city has marked down to 22 cents on th edollar is a heck of a write down let me tell you.
Questions for BI,
Are we done with writedowns now?
more stories from the front:
while working over the weekend, someone was standing outside my office talking on their cell. The office was empty besides me so i guess they thought they were alone. The guy was talking to his wife describing how he just found out his son (implied early 20’s) has been going into all sorts of stores and taking stuff off of the shelves and then getting cash/cash equivalent for it at customer service.
Apparently the son said that he had such large credit card bills and with his car note, his regular job couldn’t cover his expenses. And when he asked his friends how they got by they told how they did this to cover their bills.
The father couldnt help him because all of his income was going to cover bills and basic expenses.
Its getting ugly out there! the sheeple have no idea how hard we are all going to hit the wall as this mess crests.
Jamil are you married?
#6 & 7
11% off peak until May 2008. It’s possible that we are already at 13 ~ 15% now. But we won’t know that until October.
hehehe: are you married?
what is your social security number?
#103 – Interesting article at SeekingAlpha . They didn’t even get the full 22 cents on the dollar, it works out to about 5.5 cents with the rest as IOU.
So do we expect to see these write-downs next quarter or can they be delayed until EOY?
J,
You seem very uptight. Get out and play a little.
Toshiro #94-
Maybe I don’t understand bankruptcy law well enough, but how can the parent company, MetroMedia Restaurants declare Chapter 7 on that subsidiary and stay in operations on two other chains – Ponderoza and Bonanza? Wouldn’t a bankruptcy judge make them shut down some portion of stores and try to pay off senior debt, collateralized loans, payroll? Or, if is it so bad that the whole thing would collapse if they tried to do a more orderly close down on just that part?
Any thoughts from the bankruptcy experts…
1.3 trillion level 3 assets that city has marked down to 22 cents on the dollar is a heck of a write down let me tell you.
1.3 trillion -> 286 billion?!?!?
http://philip9876.files.wordpress.com/2007/10/nuclear-explosion.jpg
patient (58)-
It’s not an impressive move just to be able to blow out garbage CDOs at .22/USD. The real feat of genius is to finance 75% of the deal, accepting the garbage CDOs as collateral.
This is the financial equivalent of putting on a suit of ground meat, then walking into a lion cage.
I’m sure Citi can top MER’s act, though. Remember, they’re very adept at dancing.
so it sounds like the merrill deal is a lot of smoke and mirrors to save merrill
Merrill will provide financing for about 75 percent of the purchase price, according to the statement. The financing is secured only by the assets being sold, meaning Merrill would absorb any losses on the CDOs beyond $1.68 billion. T
the collateral is the purchased bonds???
merrill will absorb losses????
to a non-finanical guy this sounds like a dog and pony show put together too cover someones rear end from insolvency.
NJeyesore (69)-
By what measure? If you ask Nat’l Bank of Australia, Lone Star overpaid by .22/USD.
#111 – That’s a good question but any answers I’d have would only be guesses. Maybe each of the brands is held as an individual corp. with the parent group as majority shareholder thus isolating Benningan’s from Ponderosa, etc? Again, I’m guessing here.
I’m just surprised that it was instantly Ch. 7, and not really presaged either.
hirono (81)-
“Please Jamil stop crapping on our lawn. Find yourself an suitable right wing/conservative country and move there.”
Hirono, I live in one. And I don’t want Jamil anywhere near me. I’m scared his brand of stupid is Nirvana-level contagious.
110 hehehe
“J,
You seem very uptight.”
Jamil is our most tightly wound troll.
and MER is up $0.24.
The insiders have all made their money and covered their shorts.
104#, make, who cares it is “write down” or “write up”. what i need is move to make money
113 clotpoll
“It’s not an impressive move just to be able to blow out garbage CDOs at .22/USD. The real feat of genius is to finance 75% of the deal, accepting the garbage CDOs as collateral.”
This thing actually sounds more like the stuff the Enron boys were doing, only not actually illegal (you remember, the old “sell yourself your own asset, paying yourself with money that you borrowed from yourself, and book yourself a handsome profit” gambit?)
patient (121)-
‘the old “sell yourself your own asset, paying yourself with money that you borrowed from yourself, and book yourself a handsome profit” gambit’
I have friends who still look at this kind of thing and say stuff like “holistic”, “slef-sustaining” and “tidy internal ecosystem”.
Of course, these friends were raised by nannies, killed small animals in their childhood and find it difficult to form meaningful relationships with women.
“Starbucks to cut 1,000 non-store jobs by July 29”
http://tinyurl.com/5txgpf
crude may close under $120 today and gold down another $12.
“IMF predicts no end in sight to credit crisis”
http://tinyurl.com/5zfsvp
next stop $40
Jamil is the scariest kind of American. He accepts, without question, what ever his party tells him. It takes this kind of mindset to get the populace to herd non-aryians into cattle cars.
Just came back from a tenant lock-out. Let me tell u the constable’s cellphone was keeping ringing every minutes. He was so impatient that he could not help me out changing the lock. Ohmm now I have to call my handyman to finish the job.
#93 OneTimePost Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
Talked to a couple of friends of mine who had relocated to Hong Kong two years back. They had decided to keep their houses in Tenafly and Teaneck respectively and rent them. Now their renters are both months in arrears, apparently due to the economic down turn. They can’t sell their houses unless they go upside down. Guess holding on to the house wasn’t such a peachy idea after all. Does anyone know if this is a unique phenomenon or not? If not, I expect rents to start dropping soon as well…
MER deal –
Doesn’t sound as bad as some as you put it. So MER wrote down the asset 78% because no one was going to touch it at 50% or even 60% on the dollar. So the upside to the buyer is that recovery value is more than .22 on the dollar, if they are lucky they can get .40 on the dollar. Lone star has very little skin in the game and this is a great trade for them. MER gets cash for their garbage so they don’t have to go to the equity markets again. Both sides are happy.
hey Congress!
Did you read the bill?
If the bill is so thick you could weigh it, you vote against it. A very big name in DC once told me that;)
SAS
re: #113 can’t help but wonder how much of the Merrill deal was financed at the Fed window?
US officials say the Justice Department has indicted Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens (R) on charges related to a long-running investigation of business dealings in Alaska.
I just saw that re Stevens – THANK YOU GOD!!!!!!
#132 njp
I just saw that article. wonder what jamil’s take will be?
Does this mean his 500 million bridge to no where is officaily history?
$rd (128)-
You need to learn how to pull off an Oklahoma eviction.
Granted the valuation process would be much more complex than surface. That’s why I said the fun part would be the analyzing. There is a implicit financial analysis during the diligence of any such deal in wall st(don’t ask me why). It would be blind to believe Lone Star’s analysis won’t crunch the number before committing such a big deal. Finx101.
Or you just don’t like your new nickname clot101. If so tell me I’ll correct that :)
#115 Clot101 Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
NJeyesore (69)-
By what measure? If you ask Nat’l Bank of Australia, Lone Star overpaid by .22/USD.
bairen
“wonder what jamil’s take will be?”
Activist Bush Administration Justice Department?
For those unfamiliar with Ted Stevens, enjoy.
The guy is 84 years old, I doubt he will serve one day behond bars.
The “intertubes” – my favorite!
Thanks, tosh.
It is great to see that bridge to nowhere corrupt scumbag indicted. He’s been a disgrace. Only 99 left (start with Freezer Jefferson and H.Reid with his land deals, and Dodd with his BofA corruption).
#142
OMG, I agree with a jamil post.
Me too.
The funny thing is that the only thing that Republicans and Democrats can ever agree upon is that ‘most’ elected officials are corrupt!
Fiddy,
No, not that I saw.
From craigslist:
$238405 Sheriff Sale Class &Class Trip – Edison Glen Edison (South Plainfield)
Date: 2008-07-29, 12:24PM EDT
Please join us for a Sheriff Sale Class and Class Trip to the Middlesex County Sheriff Sale on 7/30/2008. Class starts at 11:00 am and runs to 1:15 pm. at that time we will drive (you provide your own transportation) to the Middlesex County Sheriffs Sale in New Brunswick. Visit http://www.BestAgent.biz for more information.
Call 732 266-3366 for reservations
Ok, how many of you are in the list? A lot of people from NJ are in the list..
Buyers of bogus degrees named
“Hundreds of people working in the military, government and education are on a list of almost 10,000 people who spent $7.3 million buying phony and counterfeit high school and college degrees from a Spokane diploma mill.
The complete list of buyers, which the U.S. Department of Justice has refused to release to the public, has been obtained by The Spokesman-Review.”
Seems to include names from CIA, NSA, NASA, US Dept. of Health, employees of nuclear plants (!), plenty of police officers, NJ colleges etc
Excuse me but I am in mourning today. My favorite desert was “death by chocolate” at Benigans. The “death of death by chocolate” should be remembered. 7-29-08 will go down in history as a sad day for this great country.
Does it matter to have a degree anymore in this age? In one hand, you have college dropout like Mr. Bill Gate be very successful; in the other hand, you don’t really make enough money to pay for the student loan if you only have a college degree.
I’ll strongly prefer a master plumber license if I have to start all-over again. ( I don’t want to be shocked – don’t ask me why not electrician again.)
#148 jamil Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
Ok, how many of you are in the list? A lot of people from NJ are in the list..
Buyers of bogus degrees named
“Hundreds of people working in the military, government and education are on a list of almost 10,000 people who spent $7.3 million buying phony and counterfeit high school and college degrees from a Spokane diploma mill.
The complete list of buyers, which the U.S. Department of Justice has refused to release to the public, has been obtained by The Spokesman-Review.”
Seems to include names from CIA, NSA, NASA, US Dept. of Health, employees of nuclear plants (!), plenty of police officers, NJ colleges etc
I couldn’t help but notice how many names appears to be of Arabic descent. What is that about?
John (149)-
How pedestrian.
You can take the kid out of LI…
(149)-
Given the choice, I would rather eat a turd.
Death by turd.
”I would rather eat a turd”
you mean, you actually eat at Mc_Donald_s?
bloke.. thats disgusting!
;)
SAS
hugh?
test
151 stu
“I couldn’t help but notice how many names appears to be of Arabic descent. What is that about?”
Very interesting.
There are 73 Saudis.
Contrast that with 13 Mexicans.
One wonders why the Justice Department was holding the list close to the vest…
Who’s really getting bailed out here
Phoney, Fraudy and HELOC Hell
http://nakedshorts.typepad.com/nakedshorts/2008/07/whos-really-getting-bailed-out-here.html#more
I think the guys at Lone Star must’ve been s***faced on Lone Star before making this deal.
http://www.lonestarbeer.com/
http://www.united-nations-of-beer.com/lone-star-beer.html
The deal sounds like a summary of the review above: tasteless!
Now pass me my Rolling Rock.
156#, fortunately, i did not see osbama in the list
This goes to show you that Mexican illegals don’t need a degree for those high-salary positions they have been stealing from us law-abiding citizens, but Arab illegals, they pose as doctors and pilots and steal the high paying jobs.
I think we need a quota on Arab immigration.
—Republican thought process?
ozbama?
Is that like a mix between Ozzy and Obama? I would vote for him and VP Mr. Crowley!
Cayman Islands in the 3rd place?!? You must be kidding the he$l out of me. What do they produce after all?
#157 HEHEHE Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
Who’s really getting bailed out here
Phoney, Fraudy and HELOC Hell
http://nakedshorts.typepad.com/nakedshorts/2008/07/whos-really-getting-bailed-out
158 bi
“fortunately, i did not see osbama in the list”
Unfortunately, M*Cain is on the list.
Cayman Islands in the 3rd place?!? You must be kidding the he$l out of me. What do they produce after all?
Why they produce lots of Benjamins. Why do you think they call it the “Grand” Caymans?
Bennigan’s site may be down,
but you can still summon your
Inner Leprechaun and send a Lepregram.
http://www.innerleprechaun.com/lepregrams.html
159#, stu, if this quota system was implemented 50 years ago we were losing first muslim president.
160 in moderation? I’m truly clueless as to why!
Quantitative Analyst at Moodys Investor ServicesLocation: Greater New York City Area
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Type: Full-time Experience: Director Functions: Research, Analyst, Finance Industries: Financial Services Posted: July 29, 2008 by Kelsey Perez Job Description
Opportunity for a senior quantitative analyst to lead the research and model development for calculating the financial risks of fixed income assets. The ideal candidate will be familiar with modeling techniques, performance analytics and structured finance and will be able to work in a team environment. The candidate will also be involved in creating research publications and presentations related to the models .
Requirements: Applicant should have a PhD in a quantitative discipline and 6+ years of demonstrated research experience developing quantitative models in the fixed income market. Knowledge of Econometrics, Mathematical Modeling, Term Structure modeling and Monte Carlo Methods is a must. CDO/CDS modeling and valuation a plus. Experience with statistical modeling platforms such as S-plus or SAS applied to large data-sets is desirable. The ideal candidate will also have ability to write technical research, and have had experience in effectively managing a team of quantitative analysts.
Company Description
Moody’s Investors Service is among the world’s most respected, widely utilized sources for credit ratings, research and risk analysis. Moody’s commitment and expertise contributes to transparent and integrated financial markets, protecting the integrity of credit. Moody’s ratings and analysis track debt covering more than 100 sovereign nations, 11,000 corporate issuers, 26,000 public finance issuers, and 110,000 structured finance obligations.
Arabs and Mexicans work well together the mexican can be the bus boy and the Arab is wearing the table cloth.
njpatient Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
151 stu
“I couldn’t help but notice how many names appears to be of Arabic descent. What is that about?”
Very interesting.
There are 73 Saudis.
Contrast that with 13 Mexicans.
One wonders why the Justice Department was holding the list close to the vest…
“Applicant should have a PhD in a quantitative discipline”
I know a good place where you can buy one of those!
“Cayman Islands in the 3rd place?!? You must be kidding the he$l out of me. What do they produce after all?”
A trading desk/office for the ppt?
“college dropout like Mr. Bill Gate be very successful;”
Not to ignite an old debate, but he dropped out of Harvard. Its not as if dropped out of BC Community College (not that there is anything wrong with BCCC). The entry standards of these two fine institutions are slightly different.
Reminds me of the old joke, I arrived in this country with nothing but the clothes I wore and a suitcase. It helped that the suitcase had two million inside.
Explain to me how this is legal?
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/2008/07/29/merrill_ceo_comments_3.png
little earthquake in So Cal.
instigator (163)-
Or summon my inner virus and send a lepergram.
Stu (168)-
“Applicant should have a PhD in a quantitative discipline”
Right about now, I think C, MER and LEH would accept a monkey with a black box.
The grim reality is that trillions of dollars were borrowed and spent that will never be repaid. No government program can alter that fact. Someone is going to have to pay the piper for all those granite counter tops and plasma TVs. The price tag is staggering and for all the bailouts and stimulus packages, all the government can do is exacerbate the losses and shift the burden through inflation. Nor can the government resurrect bubble home prices and the fantasy of real estate riches that went along with them. One way or another, rational home prices will be restored and the myths of our asset-based, consumption-dependent economy will be finally discredited.
Above is from Peter Schiff,
Assuming that there are about a trillion in write downs. Someones loss is someones gain. The money doesn’t just disapear.
What I’m curious to know is how many Make monies are out there?
How many people like myself have made millions on RE bubble and still have them?
I can count at least 3 people on this site that must have bought their degrees.
Would the following be enough to make this legal?
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20071030/merrill-lynch-oneal-retirement.htm
Merrill Lynch agreed to a retirement package with its embattled Chairman and chief executive Stan O’Neal less than a week after the company posted its biggest quarterly loss ever, giving him $161.5 million in stock and benefits, but no bonus for 2007.
# 171. HEHEHE Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Explain to me how this is legal?
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/2008/07/29/merrill_ceo_comments_3.png
Leave a Reply
“Right about now, I think C, MER and LEH would accept a monkey with a black box.”
Clot,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YR71GnQ4CU4
“Does it matter to have a degree anymore in this age? In one hand, you have college dropout like Mr. Bill Gate be very successful; in the other hand, you don’t really make enough money to pay for the student loan if you only have a college degree. ”
Public officials tend to get automatic raise if they acquire a new degree. Last year I remember several NJ police officers getting caught for obtaining fake masters degrees (resulting in massive salary increases, just before retiring). Well, not sure about fake. They paid $50 and got piece of paper in 2 days so I suppose it was real, in a way. This is something that should be eliminated (likewise in schools..who cares if 3rd grade teacher gets a MA degree – the job doesn’t require it and no automatic salary increase should be awarded).
Prices in shore town continue to hold steady.
Curious. Can the epicenter of the last bubble actually be immune to the effects of this bubble?
Comments?
I paid for my degree with toxic cdos at 23 cents on the dollar.
Even worse I heard a few companies with tuition reimbursement got stung by people putting in fake transcripts they bought from the schools with fake bursars receipts for reimbursement.
Teachers get a ton of money thrown at them if they have their masters degree + additional credits. I am not sure how this is a value to the students, but it does explain how teachers can afford luxury cars and McMansions.
48: Why don’t you come to my golf course, so you can wash my balls.
Speaking of monkeys:
“Or, to put it another way, CEOs don’t matter: if the company is going down the toilet, neither John Thain nor anybody else is going to prevent it from doing so. You could have put a monkey in charge, and the outcome wouldn’t have been materially different.”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/87670-the-failure-of-john-thain
Key Points of Case-Shiller Index from ISI
* Case-Shiller home price index fell -15.8% y/y in May, which is down -0.9% (n.s.a.). We estimate seasonally adjusted it is down
-1.2%. The monthly drop in the seasonally adjusted series has slowed for three consecutive months. (good point)
* All twenty cities are down y/y. Regionally, cities in the Southeast, Texas and Northwest are doing better than other regions.
* Both the Case-Shiller and OFHEO indexes have some methodological issues which probably distorts the readings. A more fair
representation is probably an average of those two home price gauges. (would like to hear details about this point)
H.R. 3221: Foreclosure Prevention Act of 2008
A relief for someone is a burden for someone else (i.e taxpayers)
SAS
170 PGC
As my mother always says, if you are going to drop out of college, make sure it’s Harvard.
Former Newark Mayor Sharpe James Sentenced to 27 Months in Prison
Wow. This is a bad day to be a politician.
Monte Carlo!
5.8 earthquake hits CA
I don’t know. I would think that someone who is teaching should be well educated themselves. But then I guess I’m an idealist that way.
“5.8 earthquake hits CA”
good news (really).
I heard my wife mention Monte Ca$lo once. Where the he$$ is it?
#166 John Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Quantitative Analyst at Moodys Investor ServicesLocation: Greater New York City Area
…
Term Structure modeling and Monte Carlo Methods is a must.
HE (183)-
“You could have put a monkey in charge, and the outcome wouldn’t have been materially different.”
Were I a monkey, I’d be offended by the comparison.
$rd (197)-
Try a Chevy dealership.
[164] Stu,
Can you say Portfolio Interest Exemption? How much of the Cayman investments are, ATEOTD, really U.S. investments?
Real simple PIE strategy. Set up CI corp. and fund it. The CI corp must have a strictly foreign business to avoid CI taxes. But it can invest idle cash in US debt, which is tax free to foreign holders, while it searches for business opportunities. Thus, rock-solid US T-bonds produce an effective yield better than munis because they are now tax-free. After a while, wind up the CI corp. because it was a stupid idea anyway, and distribute assets (including all those accumulated earnings) to the shareholders, whose shares are now conveniently in Bermudian trusts.
Good luck repatriating it though. All manner of snares for U.S. taxpayers doing that.
I watched Corzine v. Charlie G. So where’s the slap-down? Getting a bunch of supply-siders to support supply-side economics isn’t exactly man-bites-snake. (And Charlie G. needs a shave. If I saw him standing in Port Authority Bus Terminal with a cup of coffee, I’d drop a quarter into it.)
I’m no fan of Corzine, but Charlie G. on some points sounded more like Edgar Bergen’s Dummy, Charlie McCarthy.
Not to make too much of today’s housing crisis, but it’s pretty clear that demand can drive markets, too. Duh!
Clot,
Monkey’s don’t get $50MM in bonuses.
the collateral is the purchased bonds???
merrill will absorb losses????
—-
Not exactly. 75% financing means Lonestar puts up 25% of the cash required to purchase the CDO. At some point in the future, defined by the financing contract, Lonestar will have to pay the remainder. In the meantime, Lonestar does pay interest on the borrowed amount.
If at some point in the future Lonestar goes BK, Merrill takes position of the CDO bonds.
Losses in the bonds themselves are passed through to Lonestar.
That’s a typical structure for a bond repo agreement.
position = possession
More trust on Toyota ‘going forward’ to next japan
#199 Clotpoll Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
$rd (197)-
Try a Chevy dealership.
3 ways govt gets money:
1)Tax-
less to spend it as you want, and the politicans spend it as they want.
2)Borrow-
Borrow what someone else saved, the govt is soaking up net national savings, and issueing bonds, then not much capital left for private enterprize, so as the bonds earn interest, and taxpayers pay the interest on the bonds. Compunding the problem, creating more debt on the backs of taxpayers.
3)Print the money-
ex. you have 10k in savings, they double the money supply, your 10k is now worth 5k. The printing press is an economical bomb. It destroys your purchasing power, but leaves your figures intact.
So, take comfort you still have your 10k, but the question is….
what will it buy for you?
enjoy :)
SAS
foreclosure consequences…
(from florida)
One Central Florida neighborhood is getting overrun with rats.
Some people living in the Carriage Hills Estates in Casselberry say the increasing number of abandoned houses is causing a rat infestation. It’s a side affect of the foreclosure crisis no one could have predicted.
http://www.myfoxorlando.com/myfox/pages/News/Detail?contentId=7084309&version=1&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=TSTY&pageId=3.2.1
lost
“someone who is teaching should be well educated”
Ridiculous!!
“It’s a side affect of the foreclosure crisis no one could have predicted”
“I don’t think anyone anticipated the breach of the levees”
“Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition”
206 sas
Never forget that “Borrow” is merely a permutation of “Tax” (where both are used as a verb).
A politician who borrows has raised your taxes on a deferred basis.
A politician who borrows and claims not to have raised your taxes is a liar.
patient (209)-
Yeah. Who could imagine a big area of abandoned houses with overgrown yards might cause a rat problem? You’d have to be a regular Einstein to foresee that.
Maybe I Am Legend should become required viewing in US schools.
patient (210)-
The words “tax” and “inflation” are delightfully interchangeable, also.
201 Jamey
Charlie G. is a clown. So is Joe K. for that matter.
213 clot
so true, so true.
212:
Sadly, I think it already is. Not for its instructional value, but because our school libraries are now “media centers,” and our librarians are now “tenured money vacuums.”
212 clot
“Maybe I Am Legend should become required viewing in US schools.”
I’d settle for Charles Preston’s “The Hot Zone” or, better yet, Laurie Garrett’s “The Coming Plague”.
#185
Not sure all teachers get a “ton” of money for getting a Masters..in my town it is a one time $1,600 increase.
#218 Per month!?
njp,
I hear Ebola and Marburg are the hot new baby names in Haughtyville this year.
217:
Or Fast Food Nation.
208 Patient
I know. I tend to be a bit naive sometimes. Are you and MrsP going to the gtg Sat.?
Shore Prices–or for that matter any house price that is not moving down….probably a good bet that even if they don’t move off their current price point….that price will remain the same for next 10-15 years….
218 condo
It’s not the amount: it’s that folks can more easily understand that the gov’t is paying that $1,800 to a teacher with our tax dollars than they can understand that the gov’t is paying $300,000,000,000 to a bunch of shareholders and executives who made losing bets, also with our money.
#220 – Marburg ! Wow, either that’s an obscure reference to Millenium or virii are more popular than I thought.
Lost
“Are you and MrsP going to the gtg Sat.?”
Doubtful. We just moved (thanks grim) and spent the last couple of weeks unpacking, fixing the yard, etc., so we’re due for a weekend of giving the Little Patients our full attention.
We’ll be at the Brigadoon GTG, though!
226
Booo. Good for the little Patients but bad for us.
“John Thain Revealed as a GS3 – John Thain, CEO of Merrill Lynch has ‘again” assured us there will be no further significant write downs. Thain made one huge mistake when he left the NYSE. By the way, that was nothing more than a play nice job and keep the frat boys happy. I have not clue why he left, except he may have been pushed out because he is too soft and wishy-washy. If you hadn’t already guessed it, John Thain is also one of the Goldman Sachs boys. So if you still believe Hank Paulson is the guy to be running our country, you deserve what you have coming. And for the time being, Paulson is not only running the county with his frat boys, but he is running the world . . . into the biggest global melt in the history of the world.”
http://realestateandhousing2.blogspot.com/
daddyo – how is this like a repo? There is no agreement to repurchase. It’s a secured financing. Security is the asset that is purchased.
220 grim
and Hanta!
Kryptonite Countertops?
http://www.baristanet.com/2008/07/next_theyre_going_to_tell_us_s.php#more
It’s not exactly a repo, but the mechanics of Lonestar “trading” the CDO paper for cash is similar.
Either way, MER is only on the hook if Lonestar defaults on the financing agreement. MER is not on the hook for losses in the CDO’s.
Cindy,
Let us know if your Okay….
KL
Daddyo [232]
22 cents is a heck of a write down. I believe the colateral(homes) are to be worth around 50 cent son the dollar after you add about 10% transaction cost(attorney, maintance, RE Agents, etc) they ar eworth at least 40 cents on the dollar.
Lonestar will not default but Thain has just told Ben “what those damn things are worth”
I don’t care what the market did today, Fed, Hank, and Wall street does not liek the valuation.
Can you pictur 22 cents on the dollar write down for fanny and freddy subprime portfolio?
Yikes.
#233
Cindy is Northern CA, no?
Doyle,
Were there tickets available, outside, last night. Face?
Patient – Are you done with that huge deal you’ve been on?
If only I had John Thain’s power name and rugged good looks…
make, question from newbie: can u elaborate in more detail? Trying to position myself into the next wave of millionaire/bubble making process in RE.
– millionaire-wannabe
#178 make money Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
How many people like myself have made millions on RE bubble and still have them?
Oh yeah, the valuation was rough, no doubting that.
I was just trying to make clear that the sale was a true sale, and MER is out from under the responsibility of those CDO bonds unless all of Lonestar goes belly up.
BC,
Honestly, I only remember seeing a guy trying to sell tickets on the side of the road before we got into the parking lot (no idea if it was face). Outside of that, I don’t think I heard anyone selling. I wasn’t looking out for it and didn’t wander around the lot, but nobody walked by trying to sell in the two hours I was tailgating.
Wow $1,600 for a masters, I just buy the staff lunch.
I wanna be a teacher. My daughters 29yo teacher is “smokin” hot and she makes like 90K a year, lives at home walking distance from school and parties all summer.Has abs so flat you can bounce quarters to the moon off her stomach. Guess when you can hit NY Sports club, the tanning sallon and happy hour and still make it home by 6pm you better look good.
Trouble is a teacher is like a stripper they have a short shelf life. That 29yp hottie has around 2-3 years of shelf life left in the IB trophy wife world before she becomes an old spinster school marm. Which I guess is better than the old stripper “gumming” it on under the 59th street bridge.
craigs list has springsteen tickets all over the place at face, bet you can get them for under face.
Doyle,
Thanks.
You hiding on the backstreets, today.
John that post has to be a record for you.
make, question from newbie: can u elaborate in more detail? Trying to position myself into the next wave of millionaire/bubble making process in RE.
The only way you can become a Millionaire in RE in the dext decade is if you start of as a Billionaire.
242-John
I bet someone is not allowed to pick up their kids on school grounds anymore. Sexual harassment anyone?
This also really reeks of women=commodity.
BC,
I am hurtin for certain… day is almost over though.
It’ll be an early night for me.
July 28 (Bloomberg) — Republican presidential candidate John McCain said a black blemish was removed face during a physical examination today.
The obama-like spot was discovered during the Arizona senator’s routine three-month examination, which he undergoes because he has a history of skin cancer.
McCain, plans on cloning the black spot and having his younger darker clone as the VP on his campaign ticket to appease the doubters who are questioning if he it too old or too white to run for President.
“craigs list has springsteen tickets all over the place at face”
John,
The majority that I saw were buyers. Any sellers had them priced at 2006 RE.
Still looking for Police tix for Sunday.
rhymingrealtor Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
Cindy, Let us know if your Okay…. KL
Cindy is central Cali…basically Fresno
lostinny Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
Still looking for Police tix for Sunday.
lost: I am actually partial to Stewie….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8j6Tln0lN0c
Ahh… there is a catch, make. Are you implying everyone will be a billionaire soon??? I know you keep some dough in your closet, haha…:
Zimbabwe inflation now over 1 million percent
http://www.boston.com/news/world/africa/articles/2008/05/21/zimbabwe_inflation_now_over_1_million_percent/
#246 make money Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
make, question from newbie: can u elaborate in more detail? Trying to position myself into the next wave of millionaire/bubble making process in RE.
The only way you can become a Millionaire in RE in the dext decade is if you start of as a Billionaire.
Doyle [248],
I feel your pain.
Is this you?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kpa2JF0TOpE&feature=related
[226] Patient,
Will keep you posted. Still in A/R.
On that note, anyone in the RE world have an opinion (good, bad, indifferent) on Sterling Environmental out of Irvington for a tank scan?
Also, for a basic scan, rates and recommendations are appreciated.
Layoffs JP Morgan?
http://dealbreaker.com/2008/07/layoffs_watch_08_jpmorgan_3.php
daddyo – your right. I think someone else had MER’s obligation confused.
Also Lonestar’s fund has to default on the financing, not Lonestar itself. They setup what looks like a vehicle to buy these assets. MER will lose overall if CDO’s get priced under .03 (.25 (equity in financing) – .22(sale price of CDO’s).
So MER may be selling the assets on the cheap, but make some money on the financing.
Men=commodities, know plenty a guy in his late 20’s or early 30’s who started losing his hair and getting a little beer belly who cashed in by picking a good catch wife in a hurry before his looks were gone. No different from the 29 yo teacher cashing in.
BC,
Too funny… I would have been the guy in the beach chair guzzling beers.
I recommend you wear the leather Boss vest sans undershirt, you’ll kill with the ladies in the lot.
John,
Can’t remember ever agreeing with you – but… I remember my brother oh so many years ago at the ripe old age of 19 when he was already losing his hair. He told my mother ” I’m gonna have to marry young Mom”
KL
Thanks for the whereabouts on Cindy- did not know what part of CA she was from.
dumb cop.
“Critical Mass Bicyclist Assaulted by NYPD”
http://tinyurl.com/6cn2vg
http://newyork.craigslist.org/mnh/tix/774965205.html
NEW YORK CRAIGS LIST has springsteen at face, is it NJ Craigs list that is selling above face, sounds like an arb op to me.
Yeah, I only looked on NJ.
[262] sas
and dumb cyclists. I am surprised more of them aren’t assaulted. I ride, used to commute by bike in the district, and have no love for a$$hole drivers, but a$$hole bicyclists are simply escalating a fight they can’t win. And I know from experience, a good number are smug, self-righteous a$$holes. Get them one on one and they back right down.
The goal of Critical Mass is to provoke confrontation. That’s why they carry cameras. Won’t be long before someone gets out of a car and caps one of them. I hardly call that a victory, moral or otherwise. In fact, I predict that someone will get capped one day, and Critical Mass organizers are gonna get sued and/or charged. This future train wreck is just too obvious.
(233) rhyming – Thanks for asking – I’m fine – just reading.
I’m from the Central San Joaquin Valley – Fresno area – near Stockton – the foreclosure capital of the world.
How are things going for you and your hubby?
John (242)
I’ll be sure to forward this to my son’s teacher next year:
“Trouble is a teacher is like a stripper they have a short shelf life. That 29yp hottie has around 2-3 years of shelf life left in the IB trophy wife world before she becomes an old spinster school marm.”
237 C Dawg
“Patient – Are you done with that huge deal you’ve been on?”
Oy – it’s a neverending parade of deals – the inflatable mattress is leaning against the wall in my office because it’s pointless to deflate it.
As long as the bicyclists obey the traffic signals they have the same rights as the vehicular traffic, if directed by the Police they pull over.
The cop was a thug, and if it was a woman who was pushed off her bike the reaction would be allot different.
John has officially reached douchebag status with that post. Congrats~!
247 RPatrick
I barely notice that stuff from John at this point. My view is that John believes approximately 30% of what John writes.
BC (181)-
Just got to a computer with a media player. LOL!
(267) Clot … Okay, Okay – I AM “the old spinster school marm” There – I said it…the old, broke, spinster school marm who doesn’t even have a masters to “cash” in on for the big bucks. One of those state employees who gets a pension (or not) if they can ever afford to retire.
Patterson says NY is f@cked. I think he said over 6 billion dollar deficit over next 3 years. Hooray for Wall St.!
255 Nom
Great – good luck!
Cindy
I am sure you are far from a spinster.
(276) lostinny – I am but a student here to learn…
“I am but a student here to learn…”
Cindy,
Aren’t we all.
“Aren’t we all.”
Yes.
And then, there’s John…
I would say the more I learn about this country’s future the less I want to know but I find it tragically mesmerizing watching it play out in front of my eyes. Like watching a car wreck.
So our John had a problem with teachers? Who knew?
re: (274) last time NYC had a budget shortfall back in 2002-2003 when Bloomberg took over he took the hatchet to allot of depts. I was employed at the time consulting the city. Imagine my surprise when I was asked to quit consulting and become an employee, some may see it coming but many won’t this and it will cause lots of foreclosures in NY since they State and City employ countless people.
grim-
Instead of a Weekend Discussion, I think it’s time for the board to have a contest. Specifically…a “write like John” contest.
I think we can come up with a list of required elements. Plus, everyone can play, as a lack of punctuation, spelling, syntax (and taste) will be bonuses.
I think I can knock down 3-4 Knob Creeks, watch some soccer riots on YouTube, then imitate him cold. Anybody else wanna play?
Have I thanked you all sufficiently lately for the knowledge you so freely share? Remember, you have been discussing the state of our nation for years. (I started reading last December.) I am pretty new at being disillusioned and it is a bitter pill to swallow.
284 clot
“Anybody else wanna play?”
I am SO down with that contest.
(284) Clot
“Anybody else wanna play?”
What a great idea – Grim will have to be the judge…
i don’t think Grim is qualified to be the Judge. I would say John should be the judge.
Question regarding the Lone Star and Merrill discussion. Why wouldn’t Lone Star intentionally default if the value of those CDOs goes further down? It would be in their best interest.
(288) Sean
“I would say John should be the judge.”
Now you’re talking…
“I would say John should be the judge.”
I dunno – sounds a little narcissistic to me…
As much as we love Grim he was never the player John was, only a player can judge another player, there are few here who can fill those shoes.
[275] NJP
Thanks. Will need it, esp. if appraisal is light.
No matter what happens however, there will be scotch.
I’d like to be in the contest but I imagine I’d have to consume a good amount of alcohol to write like John. I don’t think that’s a good idea.
ping!
Clot,
I don’t think anyone can write like John.
There’s a kernel of originality in every post that can’t be duplicated.
So many unexpected twists & turns …
If crumcast gets the internet service going by the weekend, I’m down on that John thang like a jumper on WS.
Crumcast. That’s awesome. Gotta tell DH.
I posted a chart of the NY Metro Case-Shiller Index on my blog. Didn’t get a chance to do it earlier.
I was obviously joking before about hitting bottom. The index fell in most major metropolitan areas, including NY. The YoY change for NY is less than last months, but as you can see from the chart, YoY and MoM changes aren’t a steady slide. Reminds me of what a doctor told me when a family member was sick. To paraphrase, ‘Health doesn’t improve or decline steadily. In a narrow window you’ll see ups and downs. You need to see how things are going overall in the long term.’
Now I have to catch up on 3billion posts I missed :)
I was mistaken in my earlier report. NY’s deficit will reach over 26 billion, not 6 billion in the next 3 years.
http://www.ny1.com/ny1/content/index.jsp?stid=1&aid=84300
Please, please, PLEASE, let’s do the Write Like John contest. Besides my meagre updates on Monmouth County shore real estate—where prices have fallen, btw, rather dramatically in many cases—and my even more meagre urgings for local political and school board involvement, it’ll be my big chance to contribute something truly meaningful….
City real estate bucks trend- increases 12% from last year
http://www.ny1.com/ny1/content/index.jsp?&aid=84316&search_result=1&stid=2
Clot – What are the required elements for a “write like John” story? The first two are obvious (hookers and blow); what are the others?
you blokes are too hard on that john fellow.
SAS
I have plenty off hookers & blow stories but unfortunately am a terrible writer. At the GTG will surly share them over scotch.
As I suggested the time & place I will be there. Thanks Grim by the way.
I added some charts showing the Tiered Case-Shiller Data for NY Metro as well. The difference between low and middle tiers compared to the high tier is very large but not surprising.
interesting…
in Denver, CO
half the people still think there homes will be worth more in a year from now.
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/polls/2008/jul/20080730_b4re_homes/results/
Nah SAS John is great, all in fun. Come on John take a ride over.
300 lost: “I was mistaken in my earlier report. NY’s deficit will reach over 26 billion, not 6 billion in the next 3 years.”
From #103 (New York Times, about medicaid):
“The program, the largest of its kind in the nation, has become a $44.5 billion target for egregious abuse..So we’re talking about 40 percent of all claims are questionable,” Mr. Mehmet said – an amount that would approach $18 billion a year.”
I think we have found a solution to NY budget problems..(at least in fantasy world, in which activist judges, unions and acorn do not exist)
292…on the internet everyone is a player……LMFAO
I would suspect at least half in NJ think that too.
let me tell you something.. it won’t be.
and I don’t care where you live, its all coming down.
and you blokes who just bought at the height of the bubble thinken your hot shit, RE only goes up, buy now or be priced out forever, best wipe off that grin.
SAS
Well Jamil since I happen to like ACORN and I’m part of a union I don’t think I’m invited to that party.
yes, I am a home owner, but the RE frenzy has really created some sort of damage for everyone.
(specifically, in the form of taxes & inflationary pressures).
SAS
312: “Well Jamil since I happen to like ACORN”
well, given that ACORN has been convicted in voter fraud in half-dozen states, I’m not that anxious about it. But maybe it is just me. Maybe voter fraud is good if your side does it. I’d just prefer no voter fraud at all.
As for unions. They are the major (main) reason for out-of-control spending in NJ (and elsewhere) and budget deficits, but maybe it is ok after all.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080729/ap_on_go_co/china_spying
“Foreign-owned hotels in China face the prospect of “severe retaliation” if they refuse to install government software that can spy on Internet use by hotel guests. All hotel rooms and offices are considered to be subject to on-site or remote technical monitoring at all times, the agency states.”
Hmm, I wonder if laptop and VPN is secure enough on business trips to China. Better not to check this site.
Anyway, luckily Cisco and others are helpful and providing the necessary know-how and equipment to China.
Just curious what is “severe retaliation” under communist dictatorship. Week without ipod or chopping head off?
I don’t know about ACORN and voter fraud. Your comments are the first I’ve heard of it. After doing a little sniffing around, I see what you are talking about. My experience with ACORN has been positive in with their housing programs and their fight against predatory lending. But then, if a few people are corrupt, the whole organization must be corrupt.
You can blame unions all you want for out of control spending. But unions aren’t the ones controlling the spending. The politicians are. I have seen more attempts at union busting from politicians since I’ve been a member of a union then I’ve ever seen in my life. But instead of all workers fighting for benefits and fair wages, benefits and their rights, the ones that do have a way to fight for those things should be bashed instead right? I am the first one to say I don’t think my union officials fight for their members but for themselves. They look forward to their dues and they get them, no matter how bad a deal they cut for their members. But you know, I’d give up my union and city job for wages I’d get in private practice. I’d make 2-3 times what I make now and I’d have no problem funding my IRA or 401K rather then the pension you and so many others think I don’t deserve.
ChiFi/BC/Clot …
let’s say you hit a ‘black swan’ and you have some money you want to play with. After you make the requisite jokes … what foreign currency would you plop a few thousand on?
I know some of you have mentioned Swiss Francs … just curious. (all disclaimers)
/back to shark week
cindy, I am hot for teacher.
btw the only diff between a teacher and a stripper is one has a pole and one has a pension.
John you are over the top. Coming Sat. had to leave that one wide open!
John
Teachers have both.
Look like I would be able to keep the ‘newbie’ title for awhile – until I finish my ’empire of debt’
# Cindy Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
(276) lostinny – I am but a student here to learn…
pole for teacher & pension for stripper – what’s wrong with this world
#319 John Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
btw the only diff between a teacher and a stripper is one has a pole and one has a pension.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/07/29/signs-of-housing-stabilization-may-be-misleading/#comment-69915
pretend to be me on this blog and I will monitor
316 lost:
“I don’t know about ACORN and voter fraud. Your comments are the first I’ve heard of it.”
One or two instances may be forgiven, but ACORN’s voter fraud has been systematic a (e.g. bring in 50,000 fraudulent voter registration forms 5 min before the deadline so it is impossible to verify them etc).
Some background about ACORN and voter fraud (not including convictions in WA, in “biggest ever voter fraud” case):
http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110009189
“So, less than a week before the midterm elections, four workers from Acorn, the liberal activist group that has registered millions of voters, have been indicted by a federal grand jury for submitting false voter registration forms to the Kansas City, Missouri, election board. But hey, who needs voter ID laws?
We wish this were an aberration, but allegations of fraud have tainted Acorn voter drives across the country. Acorn workers have been convicted in Wisconsin and Colorado, and investigations are still under way in Ohio, Tennessee and Pennsylvania.”
325 Jamil
I will read up further on that.
Would that two dozens billions really make any difference in the future? Make imply that everyone would be a billionaire very soon.
#309 jamil Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 8:22 pm
300 lost: “I was mistaken in my earlier report. NY’s deficit will reach over 26 billion, not 6 billion in the next 3 years.”
Grim, do you have any plan to sign-up deal with Lone Star? They’ll need someone with your expertise eventually.
#234 make money Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Daddyo [232]
22 cents is a heck of a write down. I believe the colateral(homes) are to be worth around 50 cent son the dollar after you add about 10% transaction cost(attorney, maintance, RE Agents, etc) they ar eworth at least 40 cents on the dollar.
Hi all,
Not to drop in with any more doom and gloom, senior mgrs told today at ML- 10% across the board cut, come up with names by end of the week.
Sure that won’t be helping out the Hopewell campus too much…
Steve
327 Yeah actually I think there’s a 20 billion dollar difference between 6 billion and 26 billion and closing the gap becomes more difficult.
Assuming the underlying asset classes are residential RE, and a sizable portion are in tri-state or you could relocate, and x% would need to be foreclosed and / or resold.
Sky is the limit for RE opportunities …
#328 NJl$ord Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
Grim, do you have any plan to sign-up deal with Lone Star? They’ll need someone with your expertise eventually.
What’s kind of good news is that? To justify the short-term rally of the market?
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/29/news/newsmakers/thain.denial.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008072915
Merrill: No longer in denial
A loss-making sale of impaired mortgage debt shows financial firms are coming to grips with the credit crunch.
By Colin Barr, senior writer
Last Updated: July 29, 2008: 3:27 PM EDT
NEW YORK (Fortune) — Don’t look now, but the end of the denial phase of the credit crisis may be in sight.
When Merrill Lynch (MER, Fortune 500) on Monday sold a $30.6 billion portfolio of risky mortgage debt for 22 cents on the dollar, it took a big – though by no means final – step toward providing the sort of transparency that will have to sweep through the financial sector before any sustained rebound can take place.
That’s the good news.
(318) John
“I am hot for teacher.”
John, was that “I am hot for a teacher.”
Meaning one in particular teacher….
or “I am hot for teachers.”
…..Just all of them everywhere…
I can’t tell….
Guess someone had to pay for the transfer of equity over to Lone Star and Singapore. Very sad it’s the rank and file, but it always is… :(
Why beat around the bush though…Citi just handles it a bit more directly
(Klein sends his regards from Aruba)
Guess how long Thain could hang on there before asking his friend in fed reserv for bail-out. Anyone?
An anthem for all those put out of work by the downturn in the real estate market.
Funny thing is I indulge in Raman noodles from time to time to spark a wave of nostalgia of my college years.
I think the shrimp flavor tastes like poo also…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WILD-7EDMKA
laugh (317)-
Why not set up multiple crosses against the USD? It’s pretty much guaranteed that it’s the new Yen.
Articles in Money Week by Simon Nixon
“Why its time to rethink incentives”
and….
A Fitting Award
“How fitting that Sir John Rose should have been honoured as a “Great Briton” at last week’s Morgan Stanley awards. The Rolls Royce boss has done quite a job over the past decade – even if he attributes much of this success to his team.”
“But the award is a timely reminder that it pays to have manufacturing companies, employing skilled engineers to make things the world needs. Sir John often seemed a lone voice warning about the dangers of losing British engineering skills. Perhaps this award – from a bank at the centre of a financial crisis – is evidence he is being heard.”
336 When I was in college I ate so much Ramen I don’t want to see it ever again.
So right after I got my drivers license me and a buddy scored a yellow AMC Pacer, ripped off the top with a sawzall bought a case of krylon and started tagging an underpass on the LIE like there was no tomorrow…
lost (339)-
Still, nothing beats a Ramen-induced head rush.
interesting high level re-cap of what is going on
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/rebels/2008/0725.html
(84)
“MediCaid is killing states. This is major problem in NJ, too. (I also remember NYT article last year stating that up to $40B each year in NY medicaid goes to fraud).”
maybe they can have all these developing BRIC powerhouses actually start carrying some of the R&D expenses for pharma that the USA has been shouldering almost exclusively. you don’t have to raise your prices that much in a nation of 1 billion people to start seeing some meaningful profits
341 Clot
It makes me nauseus to no end. Right now I’m starting to feel sick.
Why is there no talk of an SEC investigation against John Thain?
SEC to Extend Short-Selling Rule
The SEC was expected to vote to extend temporary rules to restrict short-selling of 19 financial stocks until Aug 14, rejecting calls to extend the protections to include shares of large and regional banks.
___________
They’re too busy saving the innocent.
“They’re too busy saving the innocent.”
Steve,
Someone has to watch out for those poor souls. Haven’t you heard, they’re losing billions in bonuses. Imagine how it would impact you if your bonus was a few million less than the bonus you received last year. You’d probably have to sell your home and every home on your block to make up the difference.
Could someone give me an address and listing info (DOM/OLP)for MLS: 2521855.
Thanks in advance.
Someone has to watch out for those poor souls.
_______
No one likes to tell the Walking Dead a few of them might actually be Zombies.
Price discovery is for suckers. At least that’s what Jimmy Cayne said.
339 lost
likewise re ramen
350Patient
Like minds…
or poor college kids. :)
So there I am in a this bar when a guy comes up to me and says Remember ME? Remember ME? I don’t have any clue who this guy is or what ashtray the crater face came out of and it puts me on the defensive cause I have been around for a while and I owe a few poeple a lot of money. By the time the guy gets to the third HEY pal Remember ME? I decide to play mo-rickey-tick on his face and I up and slam my beer mug into his face. In order to play it off I then shout “don’t p_i_s_s on my back and tell me it is raining” and try to walk out of the bar like nothing happened. Turns out I do know him but just didn’t recognize him and I think I just gave him a one way ticket to the dentist chair.
I hope I win the impersonation contest…
cindy-
for you:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5t5GukrWOU
(354) Clotpol…
Thank You – man, do I feel like a dope!
I should have known….it was John…
it was gunna be something funny…
Speaking of – Good job @352 Nicholas
326 lost
Jamil is full of crap on the vote fraud issue. Ignore him. That is actually the issue that is behind the Attorney General filings. It’s interesting googling, but in short it’s a fraud on gullible quacks like jamil.
A quote from Tony Blair: ‘The art of leadership is saying no, not yes. It is very easy to say yes.” When our politicians are wooing our votes by promising everything it’s important to note what true leaders are made of.