From Bloomberg:
U.S. Foreclosures Increase 55%, Bank Seizures Rise to Record
Bank repossessions almost tripled in July and U.S. foreclosure filings increased 55 percent from a year earlier as falling prices cut homeowner equity, accelerating the housing decline, RealtyTrac Inc. said.
Bank seizures rose 184 percent, the most since reporting began in January 2005, the Irvine, California-based seller of foreclosure data said today in a statement. More than 272,000 properties, or one in 464 U.S. households, got a default notice, was warned of a pending auction or were foreclosed on. Nevada, California and Florida had the highest rates.
“It’s getting worse,” Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac’s executive vice president for marketing, said in an interview. “The number of properties that have been foreclosed on by the banks and still haven’t sold is the highest we’ve ever seen.”
Total filings rose 8 percent from the previous month to 272,171, just shy of the record 273,001 set in May, said RealtyTrac, which has a database of more than 1.5 million properties. Through July, 775,244 properties were owned by banks, compared with about 445,000 for all of 2007 and about 224,000 in 2006, Sharga said.
From the AP:
US foreclosure filings surge 55 percent
The number of homeowners stung by the dramatic decline in the U.S. housing market jumped last month as foreclosure filings grew by more than 50 percent compared with the same month a year ago, according to data released Thursday.
Nationwide, more than 272,000 homes received at least one foreclosure-related notice in July, up 55 percent from about 175,000 in the same month last year and up 8 percent from June, RealtyTrac Inc. said. That means one in every 464 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing last month.
From Reuters:
Home foreclosure filings up 55 pct in July
U.S. foreclosure activity in July rose 55 percent from a year earlier as a slump in once-sizzling housing markets forced yet more borrowers to default on their mortgages, according to a monthly report.
…
That means one in every 464 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing in July, the firm said. Bank repossessions (REOs) rose 184 percent year-over-year. Default notices were up 53 percent, and auction notices rose 11 percent.“The sharp rise in REOs, combined with slow sales, has resulted in a bloated inventory of bank-owned properties for sale,” James Saccacio, chief executive of Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac, said in a statement.
RealtyTrac now has more than 750,000 properties in its active REO database, or about 17 percent of the inventory of existing homes for sale reported in June by the National Association of Realtors, RealtyTrac said.
From the Star Ledger:
Bergen County pair charged in multimillion-dollar mortgage fraud
Two Bergen County men were arrested Wednesday and two co-conspirators were being sought in what authorities said was a multimillion-dollar mortgage fraud and property-flipping scheme involving rental properties in Paterson, according to the Record newspaper.
A 25-count indictment charges Gerald Carti, 61, of Oakland; Frederick Ugwu, 51, of Saddle River; Renford Davis, 37, of Paterson; and Amer Mir, 39, of Jersey City with conspiring from 2002 to 2005 to obtain millions of dollars in mortgage loans for unqualified borrowers to purchase homes at inflated prices, according to the Hackensack-based newspaper.
Carti, a loan officer and shareholder of Pine Brook-based U.S. Mortgage Corp., was arrested at his home. Ugwu, who bought and resold properties in and around Paterson, surrendered to the FBI in Newark. They appeared in Newark before U.S. Magistrate Judge Patty Shwartz, who set bail at $1 million bond each, secured by various properties.
Ah. 2nd
Do we have any new data in brigadoon :)
From the Star Ledger:
N.J. Lottery sales rise as economy turns down
The economy may be down and gas prices up, but people with dreams found enough dollars to purchase more New Jersey lottery tickets in the past year than during the previous 12 months.
Lured by the hope of striking it rich, players spent $2.53 billion on state lottery tickets in the year that ended June 30, $18 million more than the same period in 2006-07, or an increase of 0.7 percent.
Lottery officials are not sure what caused the slight increase in sales. It could be the larger jackpots in the Mega Millions game when there is no top prize winner and the money is rolled over to the next drawing. It could be the fact that a week of sales was lost in 2006 during the state government shutdown.
Or it could be, as some experts believe, that people are playing more during economic hard times and hoping they’ll solve their financial problems by hitting the jackpot.
From the Record:
New Jersey foreclosures up 11 percent
Foreclosures in New Jersey rose 11 percent from July 2007 to July 2008, RealtyTrac said today . Nationally, foreclosures were up 55 percent, RealtyTrac said.
One in every 751 households in New Jersey was in some stage of foreclosure in July, compared with one in every 464 nationwide, RealtyTrac said.
Cindy-
Today’s pension fund article, by Mike Morgan. He gets right into Calpers:
http://tinyurl.com/6yl9an
From the Star Ledger:
Foreign investors are slow to buy U.S. real estate, survey finds
o much for all the chatter about foreign investors flooding the U.S. housing market and snapping up bargains left and right.
Although the weakening U.S. dollar and declining home values were supposed to prove an irresistible combination for international home buyers, so far the script hasn’t quite played out that way.
According to the National Association of Realtors, 26 percent of Realtors who participated in a recent survey said they worked with at least one foreign client between May 2007 to May 2008. That’s down from 32 percent in the previous survey.
“The decline in foreign home buying could reflect the general downturn in the U.S. housing markets,” the NAR wrote in its 2008 Profile of International Home Buying Activity. “Foreign buyers — like U.S. buyers — may be waiting for home prices to continue to decline in order to purchase a property at a lower price.”
“Some foreign buyers may be reticent to invest in a U.S. property until they are assured that their investment will ‘pay off.'”
The study was based on responses from about 4,000 Realtors who work with international real estate investors.
According to the report, foreign investors who actually made the leap and bought property in America seemed to favor southern and western states, and were more inclined to pay cash for their properties — 40 percent, compared with just 7 percent of domestic homebuyers.
More than 25 percent of the estimated 150,000 to 190,000 sales to foreign buyers were in Florida. Other states popular with foreigners were California, Texas and Arizona..
The typical foreign buyer bought a single-family home for $297,400 with the intention of using the property as a vacation home. Foreign buyers purchased properties that cost an average of 36 percent more than domestic buyers, and 14 percent of properties purchased by foreigners cost $750,000 or more, according to the findings.
Hey Pat, you still around?
Was wondering if you had the name of that Indian restaurant in Bucks County.
From the Star Ledger:
Newark receives a $45M boost
Newark received a $45 million bailout from New Jersey taxpayers Thursday in return for accepting the state designation as a “distressed city,” which brings tight spending limits and state oversight of hiring and finances.
The special infusion of aid for the state’s largest city will head off what otherwise would have been a property tax increase of almost $800 for the typical Newark household, said Michelle Thomas, Newark’s acting business administrator.
Since taking office in 2006, Mayor Cory Booker has issued stern warnings about the city’s fiscal crisis. The city trimmed its payroll in 2007 by 380 employees through layoffs and buyouts. Booker has also signed off on more than $1 million in pay hikes through executive orders.
Thomas said since 2006, Booker has trimmed the city payroll by 453 people, cut the city budget by $52 million and boosted revenue from payroll taxes and other sources by millions of dollars.
[7],
Another theory/wish/hope/dream from the bulls, blown out of the water.
“Greenspan sees house price bottom in 2009: report”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080813/bs_nm/usa_economy_greenspan_dc
OK, AG, which call is it? What has changed in 2 weeks besides record foreclosures?
“July 31 (Bloomberg) — Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said falling U.S. home prices are “nowhere near the bottom” and the resulting market turmoil isn’t showing signs of abating.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4jioRRKzw5s&refer=worldwide
Back to dead man walking.
“Is the U.S. Economy Safe?”
“What Banks And The Government Are Not Telling Us About 2009—The Next Shoes You Hear Drop May Be Very Loud Ones”
“The U.S. banking system is essentially insolvent. The Treasury, Federal Reserve, FASB, and Congress are colluding to keep the American public in the dark for as long as possible. They are trying to buy time and prop up these banks so they can convince enough fools to give them more capital. They will continue to write off debt for many quarters to come. We could have a zombie banking system for a decade.”
http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=685
(6) Clot
Thank You…I think. “For the most part, the pension problem is totally out of sight. It’s long term, down the road for most people. And with any good Ponzi Scheme, the alarm won’t go off until it is too late. When we finally wake up and realize Wall Street raided the pension funds, it will be too late and the boys and girls with the money will be long gone.”
Also, mine is a defined benefit program (they take it from my check and the district matches the funds.) Turns out, I read a bit on the PBGC – Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp. – defined benefits aren’t covered by this FDICish organization. Because “defined contributions plans – by contrast and definition – are always “fully funded.” Thus Congress saw no need to provide insurance protection for participants.”
CalPERS retirement benefits are guaranteed by state law. But this state is headed for bankruptcy….Here’s the kicker Clot, I am only relying partially on CalPERS – I also taught for 12 years in Oregon so the other portion of my retirement will be coming from STRS – Oregon Teachers Retirement. Won’t that be fun.
Like I said -I need to pay off my 1150 sq. ft. house and plant a garden in the flower beds. The utility bills are pretty low and I can bike anywhere I need to go. Ah, retirement!
Frifteenth!
BC (12)-
He is so brain-addled, I think the first thing that comes to mind is what comes out his mouth.
Either that…or Bill Gross told him to quit talking about any type of stabilization in housing markets. The bailout gravy train only continues as long as things stay in free fall.
Cindy (14)-
‘Because defined contributions plans – by contrast and definition – are always “fully funded.”’
Fully funded, as in: the money is actually, physically there? Or, fully funded, as in: our models tell us that the money will be there, for the foreseeable future?
(17) Oh no, I think it is as in: We took the money out of their checks and gave it to CalPERS to manage so of course everything is okay.”
I am a pretty spry old broad. I can see myself teaching another 10 years. No, I don’t want to – but I will if I have to.
Clot [16],
My hunch, this is exactly why Paulson {John} is paying him. Try to goose the markets, big John can short more?
CPI and initial claims numbers come out at 8:30. Initial claims was at an astounding 455K last week. Market expects 435K, I expect 470K :)
From the BondBuyer:
Mass. Panic Over Ballot?
Referendum Could Eliminate Income Tax
Massachusetts could lose its largest revenue stream if voters in November approve an initiative to eliminate the state’s income tax, which brings in roughly $12.5 billion to the commonwealth’s coffers.
http://www.bondbuyer.com/article.html?id=200808133GJLGQV6
Stu (21)-
Always safe to go with the Armageddon call.
#7 grim,
The problem here is that places like Europe and the Far East have their own credit crunch and I assume will not lend on overseas property especially in the US. Unless foreign nationals are paying cash, the LTV requirements from the US lenders is around 40% after they have had all orifices inspected.
I’m tired of the word, Armageddon.
Gottendamerung. That’s the ticket. Much classier…not as fundamentalist.
Consumer prices surge more than expected, with 5.6% annual inflation rate highest since ’91; weekly jobless claims slip to 450,000.
Not Armageddon, but it doesn’t exactly smell like roses either.
#25 – Gottendamerung – I’m personally fond of Ragnarok, where even the gods die.
CPI up .8% in July; 5.6% yoy. Biggest increase in 17 yrs.
Be careful Tosh.
Your Dungeons and Dragons is showing.
#29 – ssssh! I’m a cool kid now!
Stu (26)-
We should just think in terms of 10:
– 10% inflation
– 10% jobless rate
Any talk by the gubmint is probably lies and spin.
Got gold?
The real estate terrorist scourge has absolutely ruined the vehicles that most of us traditionally use for retirement. At this point, it is unwise to assume that traditional investments or pension plans can be relied upon.
When I look at investing in the most basic sense, absent of financial alchemy, my question is whether investment is going to pay me cash back right now and not be reliant on someone else coming along and agreeing to buy it from me for more than I paid. (Terrorist activity has ruined that game).
For me, the best retirement investment I can make is in a small business that sells something anchored to the everyday wants and needs of people (i.e. the real economy); preferably something passive that does not require a lot of active management while generating cash flow every day. Laudermats and car washes are good examples of these sorts of businesses. A good business of this sort can pay one in perpetuity. I think many people are going to come to this view.
Cindy Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 8:21 am
I am a pretty spry old broad. I can see myself teaching another 10 years. No, I don’t want to – but I will if I have to.
#11 BC Bob: Yeah saw that. Why can’t the old geezer go softly into the night.
When Volcker stepped down, he faded away for many years, so as not to upstage Greenspan.
Too bad Greenspan does not have the same class. He still demands to be the center of attention.
I have to believe every time he speaks it must infuriate Bergabe.
#25 I like the word “Doomed.” It has a nice post-Apocolyptic nuclear holocaust feel to it where everyone will be sitting in the rubble of an ash-strewn world wondering what happened.
#32 Clot
Got Groceries?
45million for newark,,
picked the pocket of the NJ taxpayer again.
whats next?
#16:Either that…or Bill Gross told him to quit talking about any type of stabilization in housing markets. The bailout gravy train only continues as long as things stay in free fall.
So I geuss he forgot what Gross told him less than 2 weeks ago.
“For me, the best retirement investment I can make is in a small business that sells something anchored to the everyday wants and needs of people (i.e. the real economy)”
50.5,
Stop making sense. We may have to upgrade you to 75.75?
There is an article in today’s FT about how second mortgage holders are blocking the FHA bailout since they get nothing as part of the bail out package. They have to agree to give up the lien on the property and get nothing back in return.
(33) So reinvestor – Do you think I should quit teaching and open a car wash? I’m more inclined to go with PGC @ 36 and open a fruit and vegetable stand in my front yard.
Just yank up the lawn and go for it…
#33 – Laundromats and car washes are good examples of these sorts of businesses.
I think the recent utility costs for both of these (esp. the laundromats) may be seriously eating into any profits.
From MarketWatch:
Consumer prices jump 0.8% in July
U.S. consumer prices jumped a greater-than-expected 0.8% in July, marked by big increases in energy, food, clothing and cigarettes, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
The core consumer price index, which measures retail-level inflation after excluding volatile food and energy inputs, rose 0.3% for the second straight month.
Coming in much worse than anticipated, the pair of red-hot inflation readings seem certain to swell the chorus of critics urging the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to quell inflation.
Economists had predicted that the seasonally adjusted CPI would rise 0.5% and that the core CPI would increase 0.2%, according to a survey by MarketWatch.
Consumer prices are up 5.6% in the past year, the biggest year-over-year increase since January 1991. The CPI has surged at a 10.6% annualized rate in the past three months.
The core CPI has risen 2.5% in the past year, the biggest gain since January. The core rate’s rising at a 3.5% annual rate in the past three months.
The CPI rose 1.1% in June, with the core rate up 0.3%.
Cindy Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:02 pm
Chicago – Any idea if Calpers knows what they are doing?…Can you hazard a guess?
C: don’t worry about CalPERS…..seriously…don’t even give it a second thought…
“45million for newark,,
picked the pocket of the NJ taxpayer again.
whats next?”
I know. We should build a giant polo stadium next to the Prudential Center. Lord knows, that Newark residents can’t survive on ice hockey alone.
Blame it on the short sellers.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_8rpY5fQK-UQ/SKJRZntGs8I/AAAAAAAACy4/aItBIO4XLzw/s1600-h/loss812.png
Cool chart BC!
Did GS not participate in the shenanigans or have they just not revealed it yet?
[22] Another Mass. tax revolt. I love it.
This income tax issue has been simmering for years when Cellucci imposed, and promised to roll back, a “temporary” hike from 5% to 5.5% but never did. I recall also that toll booths were supposed to come off the Turnpike when the bonds were paid off–this occurred in the 90’s but the booths stayed, and I think there was a referendum then to eliminate them, which failed (going on memory here).
Fact is, Mass. cannot survive without some form of income tax; the referendum, if sustained, would paralyze the state and cause utter chaos in its finances. The unspoken goal is to play a game of chicken with the legislature. The referendum could force the legislature to reduce the current tax in a preemptive strike. That would acheive its goal, and is actually the preferred outcome. Reason why is because an initiative of this sort doesn’t handcuff the legislature—the General Court (as the lower house is called) can introduce new legislation to counteract the referendum. Only a constitutional provision ccould prevent the legislature from repealing the referendum (should it pass) and reinstituting the taxes that the voters just repealed. But the referendum forces, if they don’t get a preemptive strike, are also hoping to force the legislature into doing just that and giving their opponents a huge club with which to bash them at election time.
Metsies tied for first!
Lennar sweetens the commission pot
http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2008/08/11/daily33.html
“There is even more good news for cash-starved brokers: For every new home prospect registered at a Lennar community, the introducing agent will get a $50 gas rebate card.”
I honestly believe we have had the schnitzel. Went 100% cash back in May, transfered entire portfolio to a credit union and registered deposits so they are fully covered by NCUA insurance (but who knows). Planning to eat greenbacks in retirement or burn for heat.
Have a friend in Tampa who bought in 2006 for 385K (asking was 415k). Identical house across the street now asking 285k. Glad it can’t happen in NJ.
ChiFi:
Daniel Murphy for president!
And ChiFi:
In return for the advisor advice for my buddy, here is my gift to you:
New: Depeche Mode “The Singles 86-98” MP3 Album download for $4
Today only, the Amazon MP3 Store offers downloads of Depeche Mode’s “The Singles 86-98” for $3.99. That’s the lowest price we could find for this 21-track, DRM-free album, released in 1998. (iTunes charges $9.99.) Amazon MP3 Downloader is required.
Stu: cool! I need Only When I Lose Myself…
BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA
http://www.nypost.com/seven/08142008/photos/sports085.jpg
STu 53
the single is on bittorrent for free. and you dont need amazon….
OT: [any advice?]
We are looking for a memory foam mattress – just not ready for the “Tempurpedic” price.
I know BJs sells one online and we’ve seen other imitators, too.
Anyone have any experience with price, quality, delivery and service?
Thanks in advance.
sl
“bittorrent for free”
How dare you ;)
Limewire anyone?
Nom, 48
regarding Mass tax revolt:
I fall into the camp of “why not” . Forcing the state to live with a limited budget is not the end of the world. why is such a horrible thing to force the state to spend less? The majority of state governments , including Mass are grossly bloated.
And the whole issue smacks or hubris, in that if the people wantr the tax gone, the politicians are suggesting that they know better, “trust us the taxes are good for you”
stu,
dont touch limewire,
go to the pirate bay (ARRRRRRGH)
www . thepiratebay . com
WELCOME, INFLATION
Even if fed raises rates right now, INFLATION will persist – in manufacturing costs inflation just trickling down to consumer – we are about to see 2-3%/month consumer goods inflation.
So far manufacturers were eating the costs and delaying passing them down to consumer – normally from commodity (raw materials) to final consumer product you have 3-4 “steps”, each step has to roll out price increases to increase price of the final product.
In my industry all “steps” are rolling 3-8% price increases every 1-2 month now. It is about to hit consumer.
Have fun – fed rasing rates will do absolutelly nothing for at least 6-7 month.
The price increases machine is rolling.
Funny though – So far there is no wages pressure – jobs are few and people are happy to hold onto them.
So inevitable consumer spending will crush (in real terms). It does seem that american over – consumerism is coming to an end by fundamental market forces..
Frostwire is better, lighter and less prone to viruses.
6 Clot
Thanks for that article.
Laudermats and car washes are good examples of these sorts of businesses. A good business of this sort can pay one in perpetuity. I think many people are going to come to this view.
Did you ever owned either??
I had a friend who owned 2 Laudermats – it is pain in the ass – people constantly wreking washerd/dryers, you have to always clean, every once in a while some idion will try to get cash out of money machine/or change from washer-drier thousands of dollar in damages, and so on.
Remember – people who use Laudermats do not care for washers/driers as it is not theirs.
Utilities costs are actually not a big deal, biggest expense is Liability insurance and rent.
I know what I’m doing with Limewire. No shared folders and I never launch anything that looks suspect. I will try your advice on the others though since I hate Java!
P.S> Cleaning well-baked in chewing gum from drier’s walls is pain in the a$$.
Credit to Crossing Wall Street:
From its peak in 1980, if the price of gold had kept pace with total return of the Wilshire 5000, today gold would be worth over $21,000 an ounce.
Cindy
I hope your pension is there for you when you do retire. I think pensions here will disappear and only people smart enough to invest in other retirement options will be able to survive on their savings.
Been off on staycation this week but
“This is the beginning of the “liquidate at any cost stage.”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/greeks-goat-fannie-fnm-liquidation/index/a/18497
More about Gold:
$10,000 invested in gold at it’s peak in 1980 would’ve resulted in a return of approximately $10,750 today. The same $10,000 invested in 1980 in the S&P 500 would’ve resulted in a return of approximately $270,000 today.
#48
I don’t believe Mass can’t survive without and income tax. NH does it. There are so many worthless state employees in Mass making a ton of money with lifetime pension/benefits.
In my humble opinion, all USD dollar holdings will be trashed and deemed worthless. Just think what hyper inflation will do to your 401K when a loaf of bread and a gallon of milk cost $250K.
Rubble collapsed in the 90’s, it can happen russia was a super power debtor nation.
Putin turned them around and now they’re a credito nation and back to their old ways picking on Georgia and setting up concetration camps. In two days they’ll take over Tbilisi.
Putin’s thesis was how Russia can use it’s energy to rise and dominate Europe.
Inflation wipes all debts, and allows you to start over.
hey,
can we get a NJ tax revolt going? cutting off the states funds and forcing them to cut the fat is the only real change is going to happen!
For the political guru’s how do you pull that off in NJ, which union leaders and mob boss’ need to be paid off to make this happen?
USA could emulate Russia and repudiate all foreign debt.
What a liberating feeling!! Wipe the slate clean!
Strange market today.
Economic reports were pretty bleak, yet financials are rallying.
Crazy! As usual.
From the August edition of the Journal of Financial Planning.
“While it is true that many Americans are overworked and that you have to treat yourself occasionally, self-gifting is more prominent today because of advertising pitches to buy things ‘becuase you deserve them’. You also deserve to live out a retirement that doesn’t include regular helpings of Alpo.”
Marshall Loeb, MarketWatch, writing about Gregory Karp’s book Living Rich by Spending Smart
Re101 back to the ground. Nah laundramat or car wash and most small business are very very competitive. Most also are cash business – you can not trust your peer citizens these days that would be another thread.
Real story: my boss had to shut down his laundramat because wife and daughter rrefuse to work 100 a day there. Conclusion is that it’s easier to make money in corp american so if you have a 9-5 job better hang in there as long as possible.
#33
Re: tempurpedic question.
Check out abed.com
Have had one for about the last 5 years and very satisfied.
#75 Stu: Bizzare!!
Fiddy,
first we need some leaders with real vision, not including vision of lining their own, and their friends pockets at all costs.
While i disagree with the way putin may do things,i can appreciate his vision and drive to create a brighter future for russia. I might prefer having putin as the leader of the US as opposed to Shrub and friends
gary,
gold is a tool not just an investment. at times it can act as an investment and at others a store of value etc. The hard part is understanding the shiny stuff well enough to know how to use it and when. I do not know enough except to know that i do not know enough….. oh well that’s the the first step right?
#76
While I understand the feeling that many people have to justify to themselves the long hrs they work, I really do not understand how buying a bunch of crap achieves this. Doing this just chains you down.
Stu, 3b,
i think that at this point, the banks and the government are heavily manipulating the markets and that we wont see logical/rational behavior again until they lose control.
heck, less oil was pumped then expected and russia is playing with matches next to a major supply pipeline. yet the oil markets barely even flinch. very unusual indeed.
“New Jersey foreclosures up 11 percent”
With all this gloom and doom, foreclosures are up only 11% in NJ. That’s great news.
It looks like NJ RE is weathering this storm just fine despite what read on this blog.
Re101: now there is a hack out of this small business thing, which I’ll only share it when I meet and trust you as a friend. Until then good luck with your RE business :)
#77 & #33
Conclusion is that it’s easier to make money in corp american so if you have a 9-5 job better hang in there as long as possible.
Frank [83],
I’m perplexed at the still mind-numbing prices that I’m seeing. It appears as though just about everywhere nationwide is getting hammered except Northern NJ. I’m still seeing near peak prices for anything deemed desireable in a decent town. If you’re think I’m full of it, call a realtor and ask them to show you a bunch of houses this weekend.
New Jersey foreclosures up 11 percent
Foreclosures in New Jersey rose 11 percent from July 2007 to July 2008, RealtyTrac said today . Nationally, foreclosures were up 55 percent, RealtyTrac said.
One in every 751 households in New Jersey was in some stage of foreclosure in July, compared with one in every 464 nationwide, RealtyTrac said.
I hate to agree with Frank – but based on this data NJ is faring a lot better than USA in general.
So NJ Is Immune – however what it is doing is creating additional insentives for me to move. (and other young people which do not work in NYC).
SO good luck NJ in becoming the first state of Rich and Poor – Castles and Ghettos.
Middle class (75-150K family income) are being pushed out.
I only wonder once most of the state is either foreighner’s enclave, ghetto’s or rich people towns, why would any buisnesses still stay here?
75- Stu
“U.S. stocks rose for the first time in three days after regulators loosened restrictions on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help revive the mortgage industry.”
Hmm…you have lost 80% of your capital because of unwise investments in a highly de-regulated environment. And the answer to recovery – more de-regulation.
I think chinese torture would soon be replaced by Bernanke Torture.
#86 Al: Slower in NJ, but it is coming. Clot can tell you how awful things are in his neck of the woods in NJ, and it is moving in closer every day.
Al, where are you going to move to, west coast? Just curious and good luck.
In 2007, in the United States of America, the poverty threshold for a single person under 65 was US$10,787; the threshold for a family group of four, including two children, was US$21,027.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_line
#86 AL
Middle class (75-150K family income) are being pushed out.
Kettle1:
Market manipulation? I hope so.
Re: Bucks County
For those of you who have already moved or are thinking about it, would you get my email from Grim? I have lots of questions re: home pricing, entertainment, taxes, schools, etc.
Thanks!
Long post….
Russia and Georgia: All About Oil
http://tinyurl.com/5mhhoy
In commenting on the war in the Caucasus, most American analysts have tended to see it as a throwback to the past: as a continuation of a centuries-old blood feud between Russians and Georgians, or, at best, as part of the unfinished business of the Cold War. Many have spoken of Russia’s desire to erase the national “humiliation” it experienced with the collapse of the Soviet Union 16 years ago, or to restore its historic “sphere of influence” over the lands to its South. But the conflict is more about the future than the past. It stems from an intense geopolitical contest over the flow of Caspian Sea energy to markets in the West.
This struggle commenced during the Clinton administration when the former Soviet republics of the Caspian Sea basin became independent and began seeking Western customers for their oil and natural gas resources. Western oil companies eagerly sought production deals with the governments of the new republics, but faced a critical obstacle in exporting the resulting output. Because the Caspian itself is landlocked, any energy exiting the region has to travel by pipeline – and, at that time, Russia controlled all of the available pipeline capacity. To avoid exclusive reliance on Russian conduits, President Clinton sponsored the construction of an alternative pipeline from Baku in Azerbaijan to Tbilisi in Georgia and then onward to Ceyhan on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast — the BTC pipeline, as it is known today.
The BTC pipeline, which began operation in 2006, passes some of the most unsettled areas of the world, including Chechnya and Georgia’s two breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. With this in mind, the Clinton and Bush administrations provided Georgia with hundreds of millions of dollars in military aid, making it the leading recipient of U.S. arms and equipment in the former Soviet space. President Bush has also lobbied U.S. allies in Europe to “fast track” Georgia’s application for membership in NATO.
All of this, needless to say, was viewed in Moscow with immense resentment. Not only was the United States helping to create a new security risk on its southern borders, but, more importantly, was frustrating its drive to secure control over the transportation of Caspian energy to Europe. Ever since Vladimir Putin assumed the presidency in 2000, Moscow has sought to use its pivotal role in the supply of oil and natural gas to Western Europe and the former Soviet republics as a source both of financial wealth and political advantage. It mainly relies on Russia’s own energy resources for this purpose, but also seeks to dominate the delivery of oil and gas from the Caspian states to the West.
To further its goals in the Caspian, Putin and his protégé Dmitry Medvedev – until recently the chairman of Gazprom, the Russian state gas monopoly – have enticed (or browbeaten) the leaders of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan into building new gas pipelines through Russia to Europe. The Europeans, fearful of becoming ever more dependent on Russian-supplied energy, seek to build alternative conduits across the Caspian Sea and along the route of the BTC pipeline in Azerbaijan and Georgia, bypassing Russia altogether.
It is against this backdrop that the fighting in Georgia and South Ossetia has been taking place. The Georgians may only be interested in regaining control over an area they consider part of their national territory. But the Russians are sending a message to the rest of the world that they intend to keep their hands on the Caspian Sea energy spigot, come what may. This doesn’t necessarily mean occupying Georgia outright, but they will certainly retain their strategic positions in Abkhazia and South Ossetia – for all practical purposes, daggers aimed at the BTC jugular. So even if a cease-fire is put into effect, the struggle over energy resources – sometimes hidden and stealthy, sometimes open and violent – will continue long into the future.
#85 gary: Well in my Blue Ribbon close to NYC train town, I am seeing most listings sit for months, and all the 500k and 600k listings are moving to 400K’s and 300K’s.
In fact Rich was kind enough to help me with a listing in my town the other day, and the house sold for 430K, and is now listed by a realtor at an asking 359K. Short Sale)
Assuming it sells for 359k that is over a 20% hit in a little more than 2 years, and of course the lower it sells for the bigger the hit.
More importantly the final sales price of that house now becomes the new comp for houses in that particular neighborhood, as the houses all all basically the same.
65 Stu, don’t hate java it is a combination of the developers who wrote the app and the poor state of the windows JDK, on Solaris java applications work well provided you have enough memory. Also some large number of websites are powered by java and it is quite good for this use.
“Russia and Georgia: All About Oil”
“United States and Iraq: All About Oil”
Isn’t it kind of hypocritical to fault Russia for their actions in Georgia while we continue to occupy Iraq for exactly the same motive?
45 mill for newark,,, watch as trenton,passaic,, paterson, camden ,
they will come to the water hole.
Trapped in SQL querying class. thank god for wireless internet.
and no ,, you can’t have the katz em’s
Amazon is great for MP3 downloads. Not restricted files and you dont need the downloader, just click the ‘easy download’ button and it goes right to your desktop. 89 cents per song.
“$10,000 invested in gold at it’s peak in 1980 would’ve resulted in a return of approximately $10,750 today. The same $10,000 invested in 1980 in the S&P 500 would’ve resulted in a return of approximately $270,000 today.”
Gary,
In 2000 it cost approx 40 oz of gold to buy 1 dow. Today is costs approx 14.5 oz of gold to buy 1 Dow.
OK jcer.
Java in Windows and on the MacOS sucks!
Better? ;)
In my college days, I did some programming on a Sun Solaris workstation that was just slightly smaller in size than my refrigerator. Two years later, the machine was twice as powerful and about the size of a cereal box.
Would anyone happen to have a history on MLS # 2811803 in Tenafly, NJ? Maybe an address too? Thanks!
Gary (85) and Al (86),
Thanks for the support, I have been saying this all along on this board but some RE agents want-to-be like Clotpoll called me stupid and dumb for insisting that the NJ RE market is just fine.
Stu,
“Russia and Georgia: All About Oil”
“United States and Iraq: All About Oil”
Isn’t it kind of hypocritical to fault Russia for their actions in Georgia while we continue to occupy Iraq for exactly the same motive?
both are accurate. I dont see it as “faulting” russia for the actions in georgia, just putting things into context.
We are seeing the beginning of the new phase of a struggle that has been going on for centuries. The struggle to control energy sources. WWII solidified the primary spheres of influence and those spheres are no longer valid, hence the new struggles to redefine spheres of influence.
#95 Stu: Like McCanin’s comment yesterday, regarding a new cold war, with Russia, where he said nations in the 21st century do not go around invading another nations, except of course he forgot to add the U.S.
OT:
I am not from these parts, so please excuse my ignorance.
While growing up, how do you decide between becoming a Yanks/Mets fan or a Giants/Jets fan?
“some RE agents want-to-be like Clotpoll called me stupid and dumb for insisting that the NJ RE market is just fine.”
Frank,
I’m not a RE agent. However, you can toss me into this category.
#103 Support? The NJ market is not fine. Foreclosures are up, prices are down and will continue to drop.
I agree that it is not as bad in NJ,as in other areas of the country, but it will get there.
There is no magic potion that will prevent it.
The underlying economic fundamentals for the NY/NJ area are dismal, and that is and will continue to affect housing prices here.
“While growing up, how do you decide between becoming a Yanks/Mets fan or a Giants/Jets fan?”
Victorian,
Most cases; parents and/or older siblings. However, it could also be the cheerleaders outfits; Dallas Cowboys. Then again, whomever is on top when you become interested.
Every time I check into this blog for some good healthy information (like I used to get) all I get now is how bad everything is. I feel like I want to slit my wrist after reading this thing. You guys bark about all the issues going on in the worst states in the country, NJ isn’t one of them. You bark about how foolish it is to buy a home and how nobody can get a mortgage. In 10 years all the nay sayers and renters are going to wish they bought in ’08 and ’09. In my Monmouth county market area inventory is down and sales are up, listings that are priced right are selling. I think we all agree that market conditions have made the buying and selling process a bit more difficult but please know closings are happing every day and buyers and drawing up contracts every single day and in 10 years from now they will see the equity build.
“I am not from these parts, so please excuse my ignorance.
While growing up, how do you decide between becoming a Yanks/Mets fan or a Giants/Jets fan?”
A lot is based on where we all originally lived. I grew up in Merrick, Long Island so I naturally became a Met/Jet fan since both played at Shea which was a bit closer than the Bronx.
Then there are the bandwagon fans who love a winner and choose the Yankees for this.
Giant fans are a strange bunch. They tend to be very blue collar and really appreciate the game. They don’t cheer very loudly though.
Jets fans are more like British soccer fans. They need little excuse to riot and will cheer for their team even when they are 1 and 14. Forget blue collar, the fan base is strikingly similar to the crowd you see in the local OTB. Ever notice on the news that when someone gets arrested, they so frequently are wearing Jets garb?
An easy comparison would be like comparing the Packers to the Raiders.
#110 AAG: Things are really bad. I cannot help it if you are in denial.
Where is the upside to buying right now in NJ? What are the economic prospects for NJ going forward? In a word, they are grim.
And just what makes you believe a buyer will see equity built in 10 years? Sounds like the hupe of a realtor to me.
#112 Should have said sounds like the hype of a realtor to me.
“please know closings are happing every day and buyers and drawing up contracts every single day and in 10 years from now they will see the equity build.”
AAG,
Sure there are buyers. There were also buyers of dot com from the peak to the bottom. There will be buyers all the way to the pits. Nothing new here.
Everyone thought Roubini was wrong two years ago as well.
Turns out, he was just about the only one who was right.
I get the feeling that Frank and AAG are Giants and Yankees fans.
#112 3b: What goes up comes down its real basic. I agree NJ has some challenges but so does every state and every country in the world and I’m sure you even have some things in your life that could be better, I know I do. The point is all of this is a cycle what is bad then becomes good again. Look at oil up to 150 back down to 115 and as a result we have Boone Pickens and other eyes open and all over the issue as a result. If you look for bad you will find it. If you look for good you will find that too.
AAG, while I agree this site is gloomy it should be known that while NJ is faring much better than the rest of the country we are still hurting and as long a home prices are out of line with incomes there is a potential for a drop, even now as we speak home prices can be higher because of low interest rates. As interest rates rise which they will as more banks get out of residential home lending and the GSE’s encounter more difficulties It would not surprise me to see 8% mortgages again. This will put pressure on prices, high NJ property taxes will put pressure on prices, higher unemployment and reduced pool of qualified buyers will again put pressure on home prices. Why would reversing the very things that caused the upswing in prices not cause the inverse to happen? The process will be more gradual but prices will and are dropping it may very well take until 2010 to hit bottom but even when prices are fall .5-2% per month which seems small, yoy is like 20%-30%. NJ has a boatload of problems that will eventually catch up with it. so while people on this board think the sky is falling it probably isn’t but I do tend to agree tough times are ahead and many/most people will need to tighten their belts, reduce spending etc. If homes weren’t selling at all it would be a house apocalypse or Detroit but that doesn’t change the fact that sales are slow and there is a big potential to lose money on a purchase.
#110
I agree – there is a lot of doom and gloom on this board, but I think it’s a sign of the times. You’ve got many folks on here contributing ideas / perspectives from various backgrounds, where the overall consensus is that it’s a bear market. You have to take that into consideration. They’ve been spot on for the year that I’ve been monitoring the board.
These aren’t the happy 1950’s – you’ve got crappy politicians, poor fiscal management, wars, real inflation, and unhappy Mets/Jets fans leading to a dismal outlook overall. There is no doubt that things will turn around, as they always do, it just may take a little time.
Well said jcer.
Message from Sallie Mae I received today:
“Loans helped pay for college. Now shopping can help you pay down the loans.”
Makes perfect sense to me.
Fact:
“New Jersey foreclosures up 11 percent”
Characterization:
“That’s great news. It looks like NJ RE is weathering this storm just fine despite what read on this blog.”
Compulsive lurker here who rarely has anything intelligent to add, except to say that some characterizations are sufficiently tiring to warranet a little groaning.
How one characterize a fact, intelligent person can differ. A debate about whether a 11% foreclosure increase is a good thing or bad thing seems fundamentally pointless. A debate about what one should expect based on the 11% foreclosure increase fact is more fruitful, and that I leave to the experts to whom I so benefit from in the last 3 years.
I only note that, the definition of “immune” has gone from “no foreclosure here” to “foreclosure holding steady” to “foreclosure only going up 11%” in the time span.
That’s some immunity.
The only problem is that you can’t pass your 9-5 along to your kids if you die. You can’t sell your 9-5 either. As a matter of fact, your 9-5 is under threat by outsourcing,right-sizing and etc.
I’ve always prefered to deploy my talents to benefit me directly. I prefer to either rise or fall on that basis. To be sure, it’s risky but if you choose the right sort of small business and have the management skills to run it, the rewards can great.
Laundermats, while expensive to start, are solid businesses in my view particularly if you can combine them with some other business like a dry cleaners. Of course, it ain’t “glamorous”, but that’s not required to make money. Child care is a business that’s a pain in the azz, but I don’t know of any child care provider suffering other than from overwork. Welfare to work requirements leave some of these guys in a situation where the state is actually paying the provider, but again one does not to go that route, there’s enough money to be made just dealing with regular working folks. I know a guy who’s tied to the “green revolution” and sells an organic product that averages $ 3,000-5,000 a pop and has people lining up to buy the product. The economic slowdown has not affected him whatsoever.
I just think the idea of investing in most stuff being touted nowadays, whether it’s gold, energy stocks and etc is based on the shaky premise that someone else will come along and pay more than what you paid. That model is under threat and I’m not willing to risk my retirement on it. I look at investing in more basic terms; if I put my money in, I want near-term reasonably predictable cash return. There are few things that provide that other than a well run and positioned small business anchored to everyday wants and needs.
NJl$rd Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Re101: now there is a hack out of this small business thing, which I’ll only share it when I meet and trust you as a friend. Until then good luck with your RE business :)
#77 & #33
Conclusion is that it’s easier to make money in corp american so if you have a 9-5 job better hang in there as long as possible.
BC Bob,
The gold thing: I understand your point, but I just don’t see it as an investment. An insurance policy, perhaps, but not a long term investment.
110 Why buy when you can rent for half of a mortgage and avoid this state’s criminal level of property taxes? Even net of deductions renting is far less expensive and you avoid paying for up keep.
The end of easy lending and exotic negative am mortgages will eventually cause prices to fall to levels that represent people’s ability to pay. You can’t have 500k average prices in northern jersey on 65k average income forever.
“I get the feeling that Frank and AAG are Giants and Yankees fans.”
Stu,
Me also.
Duckweed, 11% is good vs. the National average but I would hardly characterize it as “Good News”, it is like saying bob lost both legs and I only lost one that is good news, well it is compared to bob but the compared to the guy who didn’t lose any extremities I am screwed. It really means there will be downward pressure on real estate prices and tighter lending but not nearly as much as say Florida or Nevada, where resale properties are already at 2003 pricing and foreclosures are at 2001 pricing, they are almost at the end of the tunnel.
Yes this can be a gloomy board,
but i dont think anyone here is suggesting the end of the world. the debate is whether the storm we are starting to pass though is a category 1, 2, 3, or 4.
I think cat 3 or 4, but there are a number of opinions here so take your pick.
remember the bad things dont go away just because you ignore them. understanding and preparation are the best response to unfavorable conditions.
115- Stu
“I get the feeling that Frank and AAG are Giants and Yankees fans.”
Hey!! I am a Giants and Yankees fan :). My reason were for becoming a Yankee fan – Mariano Rivera.
Giants – As BC said, the Jets sucked more than them when I got interested.
And – The sky is falling!!
3b,
You’re seeing listings drop from the 600K range to 400K range? Do you have any MLS#s in mind? Just asking because maybe I’m only getting what the realtors want me to see. Thx.
toshiro_mifune Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 8:59 am
#33 – Laundromats and car washes are good examples of these sorts of businesses.
I think the recent utility costs for both of these (esp. the laundromats) may be seriously eating into any profits.
I gotta believe that those costs can be passed on without any diminution
in the demand for the services.
“Look at oil up to 150 back down to 115 and as a result we have Boone Pickens and other eyes open and all over the issue as a result. If you look for bad you will find it. If you look for good you will find that too.”
AAG,
You are talking about a product that is in demand worlwide, while supplies are dwindling.
The RE bubble was a charade, fueled by senseless lending and greed/fear. That said, if a product, in demand, can fall 30% how far can an asset fall which is overpriced/overbought, where the underlying fundamentals do not support it in any way, shape or form?
re:#106 “While growing up, how do you decide between becoming a Yanks/Mets fan or a Giants/Jets fan?”
I am a Yanks and Giants fan while my younger brother is a Mets and Jets fan. The main difference between us is he was dropped several times on his head as an infant.
Victorian,
Come to a Jet game some time. If the game blows, the antics of the drunks can fill the void left on the field.
The joy of being a Met fan is falling for the “Gotta Believe thang,” and then watching them blow it almost every time in the 23rd hour.
129 Gary: Thats so 90’s real estate. you can get all the listing information you want it’s right in front of you including the address. If your agent is a gatekeeper change your agent.
Sean (132),
You typified the point I was trying to make earlier perfectly.
Stu,
I enjoy Jet games. However, I dislike some drunk taking a piss on my foot or blowing cookies on me. Otherwise, it’s entertaining.
Building equity in Monmouth County?
MLS # 20832263- W Park Ave. Ocean Township
2 miles to the beach
Bought 9/21/06- $660,000
Mortgage- $528,000
Relisted today after 5 reductions- $499,000
Here is the link to Brigadoon foreclosure filings since Aug 2007. It has the detail address of every single property for your review :)
http://www.net50.com/Brigadoon_Foreclosures.xls
AAG,
My point is, maybe I’m missing something because those expected discounts are not showing up wherever I look. I’m seeing 600K plus and 14K in property taxes for blah houses.
BC Bob,
I enjoy Jet games. However, I dislike some drunk taking a piss on my foot or blowing cookies on me. Otherwise, it’s entertaining.
Blasphemy!! :)
#130 – I think you’re on slightly firmer ground w/ re: to the laundromat, but at a certain price point the car wash is untenable to a client. They can do it themselves.
I’m also not too sure on the elasticity of laundromat pricing. The demographic may not be able to bear that passed on cost too easily.
I guess I’m right on that re101 is not a retard after all. Haha…
#122 reinvestor
A question for Kettle … or any other reader of Jane’s or Soldier of Fortune:
What state is Russia’s military in these days? Are the forces moving into Georgia anything like the ill-equipped, untrained, and poorly paid conscripts sent to Chechnya who sold their AKs to the Chechens for cigarette and vodka money? Or have the Russians used their oil wealth to build up a competent fighting force? One article I read interpreted a Soviet … I mean, Russian commander’s remarks to mean that the Georgians put up much more resistance than expected and inflicted some damage on the Russian military. Russia may have won this round, but I see the former Soviet Republics modernizing their forces with US help to make the price of futher adventures quite costly.
#33 reinvestor x
Am I on meds or are you? You are actually making sense.
If given a choice, do you prefer to live in Russia my comrade friend?
#72 nedi Says:
Putin turned them around and now they’re a credito nation and back to their old ways picking on Georgia and setting up concetration camps. In two days they’ll take over Tbilisi.
Gary,
I am seeing some price movement in my town toward the down side (nice town). Well priced houses are still going for between 91-100% of asking (asking at the time and not original asking) with an average of around 96%. A house that would have been $750 at the tail end of ’06 will go for $675 on a good day now. The properties that I am seeing that are sitting and getting killed are the ones that are in less than desirable locations (busy street, next to apartments, etc.). These I still see being priced at or just below similar homes in much better locations. These are the homes that just sit and sit and sit and chase the market down month after month. I am as much doom and gloom as the next guy on this board but I have seen some really surprising sales int he past two months. A couple of spec homes in not exactly the best parts of town have gone for well over a million on small plots of land (not quite McMansion but close). Yes they have the granite and 4 bedroom 2/3 baths but come on, I woudl have guessed the market would not be able to support such homes at this time. I am amazed as anyone that these homes sold in such a short time for such a high price. In the end, the good towns are based off a premium from the so-so towns, which are based off a premium from the not so good towns. As one moves the rest move in sync but there is definitely a lag here and there. I think for my town at least we are in a lag period before things get much tighter this fall/winter. Just my 2 cents.
gary
there are multiple factors that are slowing the price drop in NJ. First the 2 major employment industries in the state are leaving ( pharma and fianance). without the jobs or the job sevurity who is going to buy the house at the inflated price?
Secondly, as people are hurting financially and have adopted gloomy outlooks, who is willing to pay the property taxes? I know of 2 different people who can afford the purchase price of the homes they have looked at ( with a traditional 20% down mortgage) but havent bought because they refuse to take the hit on taxes which everyone knows is going to be going up.
Additionally. most sellers cannot significantly lower their prices as they are already underwater. and the banks may or may not approve the short sell even if the “owners” want to do it.
We are set up to fall off a cliff. the above factors have us deadlocked, but once the logjam is broken we are going to see a torrent of inventory rush to the bottom
Another example of equity building in Monmouth County;
http://jerseyshore.craigslist.org/rfs/779202919.html
#106 Victoria,
I think fan bases also have to do a bit with geography. The Mets and Jets both used to play at Shea. I think the Giants also used to play at Yankee stadium before they moved to the Meadowlands.
More reductions;
http://jerseyshore.craigslist.org/rfs/761310855.html
# 33
“For me, the best retirement investment I can make is in a small business that sells something anchored to the everyday wants and needs of people (i.e. the real economy); preferably something passive that does not require a lot of active management while generating cash flow every day. ”
Time to invest in brothels in Nevada?
Jmac 143,
the russian military is in a definite state of disrepair. Generally speaking conditions amongst the armed forces are harsh as they have been left to fend for themselves in a manner.
However this does not mean that they are weak or a force to be disregarded. Russia is spending a significant amount of money on building their military might but the are still no where near their peak effectiveness that existed during the cold war.
parts of the russian military are still very much like the forces sen into Chechnya.
Also consider that there were american and Israeli advisers on the ground during the fighting and would have provided valuable tactical expertise. we have been training the georgian military since clinton had the BTC pipeline that runs through georgia built. We would have trained the georgian on tactics specifically tailored to the russian style of fighting. its a reasonable guess that the georgians inflicted some real damage.
SAS probably has better insight then me on this.
[73] Kettle,
No prospects for a NJ tax revolt. Mass, unlike NJ, is a fairly homogeneous state meaning that the vast majority of residents share the same values and interests. Not so in NJ.
Second, a smaller percentage of Bay Staters are sucking at the public breast for welfare, jobs, and other “emoluments.” NJ is one of the worst states in that regard.
Finally, Mass. residents were quicker to hold the line on taxes and spending, and on gov. corruption. Unlike NJ, it is not a job qualification to be a corrupt ward heeler. Used to be but not for many decades now. Notwithstanding Skep’s comment, Mass. isn’t nearly as bloated as NJ, nor do they have the level of corruption and waste that NJ does, and, finally, they aren’t in nearly as bad a predicament on state and muni debt or unfunded liabilities.
IMHO, it is far more likely that the state goes bankrupt first.
#148 BC Bob,
I never thought i would live long enough to see “gorgeous” and “Hazlet” in the same sentence.
I think Hazlet is turning into Staten Island. The fist pumpers are crossing the bridge and buying at one of the first towns they see in NJ.
Utility costs for car washes are not as large as you might think (assuming you’re referring to H2O). Most places recycle their water. I used to work in the accounting department for a Water Utility company on Long Island and was amazed on how low water bills were for car washes. Although, I guess the electric to run the pumps ain’t cheap.
#116 AAG: If you look for good you will find that too.
That is all nice rhetoric, but that is all it is. You have not addressed anything I said.
As far equity. Well how is this. I bought at the height in 1987 at the height and sold in 1997 10 TEN YEARS LATER for $2500 less than I paid for it!!!! So, so much for equity in 10 years.
And at that time NJ and the country as a whole was in far superior shape than it is today. Oh and you really,really had to qualify for a mtg back than.
So, you are right in that I did learn a lesson, in that do not believe the hype, because some of the same hype that fueled this now collapsed housing bubble, fueled the last one.
Oh and we did not cry and ask for a bail out. We and many others stayed and dealt with it. In our case we took the 10 years and paid off the mtg.
[151]
That was what being a small landlord was supposed to be. But between still too high land and building costs, and severe regulation, it is not feasible unless you rent “under the table” as so many small landlords do.
J #78,
Thanks!
sl
Frank (103)-
How many lifetime transaction sides (sales) do you have?
I’m working on my 2nd 500. I think that takes me out of the realm of “wannabe”.
#124 Trader: Agreed. That has nothing to do with so called doom and gloom on this site. It is a fact.
# 66
“Cleaning well-baked in chewing gum from drier’s walls is pain in the a$$”
Al,
How else is one supposed to save gum, in these hard times? Sticking it to the bedpoast is so 6th grade. Drying it out for later use is far better.
Re 138 – Brigadoon foreclosures.
I rented on Myrtle ave until recently, and 223 Myrtle has probably $100k in cars in the driveway. The house is a duplex, and there is no way it’s worth $454.
Jmac,
the russians also used irregulars, cossacks and other ethnic groups that have traditional feuds with the georgians. Irregular forces can be much harder to fight and to control as they tend to be very decentralized, almost a guerrilla force.
#129 gary: I will take a look.
Clotpoll,
Let’s talk $ volume. My is in billions, what’s yours?
US shoppers on strike?
The US government has spent billions of dollars on an economic stimulus plan to help keep the economy out of recession but figures are expected to show the effects of the spending are wearing off.
As Karen Nye reports from Short Hills, New Jersey, shoppers are being much more cautious.
…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7557800.stm
#166
Maybe next stimulus round the gubermint can send out debit cards that can only be used for purchases of itmes over $100. Flat screen TVs and Wiis for everyone!
You wonder why Starbuck’s can’t make it on Wall Street?
“Bankers and traders no longer needed on Wall Street increasingly are being given another option – move overseas.”
“Big investment banks are moving both key executives and some of their most junior employees to Asia, the Middle East, Europe and Latin America, the New York Times reports. While such transfers in part reflect cost-cutting pressures, banks also are fortifying their businesses beyond New York and London in order to take advantage of rising growth. Some bankers are getting the opportunities they’ve dreamed of, while banks can maintain key employees they might otherwise have laid off.”
http://news.efinancialcareers.co.uk/newsandviews_item/newsItemId-14716
167- Bairen
I was wondering – how long can a Wii keep you occupied/interested once the novelty wears off?
The game play is obviously not great.
The prevailing mindset of this board does seem to be doom and gloom, but with respect to the real estate situation, I am getting very optimistic at this point. Prices are not crashing overnight, but they are steadily heading down. The best houses are selling for 10% off peak prices and the less than ideal houses aren’t selling much at all, which suggests to me (and to realtors I’ve spoken with) that an actual winning bid for these right now would be 20-25% off peak. Transaction volume is not rebounding at all based on what I see. Loans are harder to get, which takes out many marginal buyers (but not the well qualified). The employment picture in the area will remain dicey for some time, further reducing the buyer pool. All in all, I am more optimistic than I have ever been since I began visiting this site that we will end up 20-30% off peak prices for top houses and significantly more for flawed houses. We are heading back toward traditional measures of affordability for the real estate in this area, which makes sense because this is the only sustainable pricing in the long run.
kettle 163: “the russians also used irregulars, cossacks and other ethnic groups”
These paramilitary groups did most of the dirty work, like ethnic cleansing and destroying Georgian villages (but Russian troops robbed some foreign journalists at gunpoint in Gori, so it is fair to assume they did plenty of dirty work themselves, too).
“consider that there were american and Israeli advisers on the ground during the fighting and would have provided valuable tactical expertise.”
The 130 US advisers and some Israelis did not participate in this war in anyway.
Anyway, Georgians indeed shot down a few Russian fighter jets (using Russian missiles bought from Ukraine) which is quite interesting.
“Let’s talk $ volume. My is in billions, what’s yours?”
Frank,
Pathological? Habitual?
“All in all, I am more optimistic than I have ever been since I began visiting this site that we will end up 20-30% off peak prices for top houses and significantly more for flawed houses.”
Skeptic[170],
Glad to have you aboard.
Didnt Frank say earlier that he was not a Realtor? – That he had 3 job offers in an industry related to gas stations?
Victorian [174],
He also was being wined and dined by multiple hedge funds and had numerous mortgage companies hot on his trail.
#110 AAG:
Spoken like a true Realtor. Just click that SupraKey three times and think of Kansas.
Following Glinda’s instructions,Dorothy closes her eyes and clicks the heels of her red slippers together three times,repeating “There’s no place like home.” She opens her eyes moments later, startled, to find Auntie Em, Uncle Henry, Professor Marvel, Hunk, Zeke, and Hickory standing beside her bed, smiling. Trying to comfort her, Auntie Em coos, “There, there, lie quiet now. You just had a bad dream.” “No,” Dorothy insists, “it wasn’t a dream – it was a place.”
# 173,
Over what period? I ask only because when one adds to those declines the effect of inflation, we may be closer to 50% in real dollars.
Kettle, jmac:
“U.S. analysts are beginning to address the question of why the Israeli Air Force was able to penetrate Syria’s Russian-made air defenses, while the Russian Air Force was not able to finesse Georgia’s Russian-made air defenses. That Russian-built and designed air defenses are exploitable was shown in the Israeli Air Force’s total shutdown of Syrian air defenses prior to bombing a suspected nuclear site last year (Aerospace DAILY, May 2).
But Russia apparently didn’t have or didn’t use the digital keys to unlock the Georgians’ network. There are indications from U.S. analysts that the relative simplicity – meaning far less meaning far less networking – of the Georgian air defenses made it tougher to knock out the system all at once.”
U.S. Ponders Georgian Air Defenses
# 178
Re Georgia and Russia,
Don’t discount the quality or lack thereof of the IRCM systems on the Russian aircraft vs. two-color or imaging seekers on missiles that may have been obtained from Ukrain. Even a good number of our mil-air assets cannot deal with these threats.
“BEIJING (AP) The U.S. Olympic team stopped the pick-and-rolls – and just about everything else Greece tried.”
“These Americans, who looked so lost two years ago in the World Championship, appear to have found their Olympic defensive way.”
“Batting away balls or swatting shots on seemingly every possession late in the second quarter, the Americans broke open a close game and went on to a 92-69 victory Thursday night to clinch a spot in the medal round.”
http://www.nbcolympics.com/basketball/news/newsid=213748.html?GT1=39003
We may not be able to keep an industrial base but, by golly, we can still shoot hoops with the best of ’em.
nedi
“Inflation wipes all debts, and allows you to start over.”
That only works if you’ve stopped running deficits. Unfortunately for us, the US has been increasing them.
91 lostinny
Are you moving to bucks?
shore [181],
Here’s a high % shot;
http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/summer08/basketball/columns/story?columnist=sheridan_chris&page=USA-Greece-080814
top 10 posters today:
21 Stu
21 BC Bob
12 kettle1
12 3b
8 Clotpoll
6 Victorian
6 grim
6 gary
5 toshiro_mifune
5 Shore Guy
Gas stations? You’re right when taking Exxon, Petrobas or Citibank.
I would say this site is more about “realists” than “gloom-and-doomers”. For one, I was skeptical when I first got here, being that I’m a rose colored glasses type of guy, but the more the predictions here came true, the more I became a convert. In fact, when I turn up my computer speakers, very faintly past the static, I can almost hear the following repeating itself (in the voice of RedRum) “RE prices will fall, RE prices will fall”.
We don’t even have to watch the ticker. Bi is here, the markets must be up today.
186-Frank. I think it was more along the lines of a 7Eleven.
NPR reports described Russia’s military setting up recruiting stations in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, taking advantage of historic grudges. Supposedly the looting in Gori is being done by South Ossetian paramilitaries with Russian “peacekeepers” playing dumb nearby.
I think Mr. O would be a good counterparty against Dmitry Medvedev. The question is who is our Putin behind him?
#190: Any chance that Georgia ever had of holding on to So. Ossetia and Abhazia is finished.
192#, 3b sounds like a former commy.
188, vic, acctually yesterday was my good day. my defensive portfolio doesn’t do too well today.
> We don’t even have to watch the ticker. Bi is here, the markets must be up today.
#193 bi: Just a realist bi:. You are typical though, when you cannot accept something, your hurl insults.
“top 10 posters today:”
bi,
How about your blackbox, crude/gold spread? Still tinkering with it?
#187 NJlifer: The so called Bulls and or so called patriotic Americans on this site always accuse posters here of being doom and gloom, yet had no qualms about reckless cheerleading,and engaging in arm chair patriotism.
They much prefer to equate realism with doom and gloom, or un-Americanism.
I saw a little blurb on the elevator this morning on a way to a meeting on one of those little news screens, which was from CNN/Money, it stated more than one-third of Americans who purchased a house since 2003 are now under water.
Doom and gloom, or realism?
Trading Kosovo for South Ossetia is something Russia might listen to. Then again, no major oil pipelines go through Serbia.
Hmm. BBC breaking news: “The US and Poland have agreed a preliminary deal on plans for the controversial US defence shield, Warsaw has announced.”
I wonder what made Poland to hurry up the deal?
Maybe later today we see, “Ukraine joined NATO in an emergency session..”
Quick question for the nice folks on this blog (thoroughly enjoy your comments). In this troubled economy, how long should attorney review take? What’s standard in a bull market, and standard in the current market? Thanks!
13:34 14Aug2008 RTRS-GOLDMAN CUTS 3-MONTH GOLD VIEW TO $745/OZ FROM $890/OZ ON DOLLAR STRENGTH
13:47 14Aug2008 RTRS-Goldman slashes gold outlook on dollar strength
NEW YORK, Aug 14 (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs slashed its forecast on gold prices on Thursday, citing overvalued bullion and expected strength of the dollar against major currencies.
The U.S. brokerage said it lowered its 3-month gold outlook to $745 an ounce from its previous view of $890 an ounce.
Goldman also cut its gold forecast to $810 from $905 on a 6-month basis, and to $740 from $810 on a 12-month basis.
#177
Shore– I think we will be 20% off peak in many NYC suburbs by the end of 2009. I would not be surprised if prices continue to decline after that at a slower pace. My understanding is that real estate downturns typically see the most severe losses in the first 2 yrs or so. I think summer of 2007 to summer of 2008 is the first year of this in the NYC area, and now through summer of 2009 will be the second big down year (both 10%+ down).
183 Patient
We spoke about it. But we have a lot to learn/think about before we make any decisions.
LeBron for Fed chairman?
Stu Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 11:35 am
“I am not from these parts, so please excuse my ignorance.
While growing up, how do you decide between becoming a Yanks/Mets fan or a Giants/Jets fan?”
A lot is based on where we all originally lived. I grew up in Merrick, Long Island so I naturally became a Met/Jet fan since both played at Shea which was a bit closer than the Bronx.
Then there are the bandwagon fans who love a winner and choose the Yankees for this.
CF Says: I agree mostly with what has been said. Geography plays a part. Family can be important. For the bandwagon jumpers, many times it is who were the good teams when they first became cognizant of sports.
As an example, my cousin hit his teens in 2002 or so, so his favorite teams are Yankees, Patriots, Nets…..explain that one? ….pretty easy.
However, the outlier is the Yankees. Having grow up around here, it is pretty much nationally known that a good core group of Yankee fans (not the ones who had the tradition passed down through family and friends) are just front running b%stards who barely know anything about baseball. They are pretty easy to identify.
First question. Have you ever seen Don Mattingly play first base in the flesh? That will get rid of most of the morons if the answer is no.
Second question. Have you ever had a beer in the bleachers? If no, also a frontrunning moron.
Third Question. What is Kansas City? Correct answer…the major league team responsible for stocking the late-50’s/early-60’s with a second major league team worth of talent, cheapening all those pennants and rings.
Fourth Question. Why is it a joke that Roger Clemens won both CY Young and MVP in 1986?
Answer, because in 1978 in the analogous situation, Jim Rice took the MVP from Guidry, and Mattingly had one of the most unbelievable offensive season’s in Years in 1986.
Fifth Question. (answer supplied by one of the most devout Yankee fans I know) Do you think the heat Jeter is getting this year is warranted? Answer, no, he is simply not that good anymore, so people should get off his back.
If you answered incorrectly to any of these questions and you call yourself a Yankee fan, then you are a useless sack of $hit.
202
So, lets assume a 20% decline from 2007 prices by 2009, at a time when inflation is at about 5% per year. Then lets assume flat prices for three years, in an era with 5% inflation. This results in about a 50% decrease in relative home prices over the five-year period. Why buy now, if there is a decent rental market where one wants/needs to be?
# 192
Georgia will only hold Tblisi if they say “Mother may I” and Russia say “yes.” We will never apply our nuclear umbrella to Georgia (the republic, not the state) so any of our guarantees to Georgia are worthless.
“Second question. Have you ever had a beer in the bleachers? If no, also a frontrunning moron.”
Chi,
Better question, have you ever tossed cookies in the bleachers?
Or, as John might say, “Ever get a rub a dubb (or some such thing) under a blanket during a game?”
John,
What is the correct term?
#206
“Why buy now, if there is a decent rental market where one wants/needs to be?”
I do not think there is a compelling argument for buying in this area right now, unless you come across the rare seller that is ahead of the curve in his willingness to cut his price. I expect next year will present more opportunities, though I admit the consistent flaw of my outlook and others on this site has been the assumption that prices would go down sooner than they have.
However, if most of the big nominal price declines will occur by the end of 2009, I will not be so worried about inflation. The value of your debt will be going down in tandem with the value of the house.
shore 207,
perhaps we trade georgia the state for georgia the union? winning trade for the US
victorian/stu/BC et al
““While growing up, how do you decide between becoming a Yanks/Mets fan or a Giants/Jets fan?””
When I was three years old, I found a 1973 Topps baseball card of Graig Nettles. I thought the uniform was cool, and the Yankees became my favorite team, Nettles my favorite player, I became a card collector, and the rest is history.
It didn’t hurt that my father was big underdog fan. He’s a brit, was an excellent town-level cricketer (sort of like independent minor league baseball here – he’s got lots of old newspaper clippings), and when he arrived in American in 1969 he had to find a substitute for cricket, and became a baseball fan. In 1969, the Mets were pretty good (duh), and the Yankees were awful, had been for five years and continued to be for another five. So, he rooted for the poor, crappy Yanks.
He didn’t really cotton to football until he’d been here a few years – as an underdog fan he wound up a Jets fan. (I guess this isn’t obvious, because the Giants weren’t winning a bunch of Superbowls then, either (I remember the Joe Pisarcik years (and no, it wasn’t Joe’s fault))). I became a Jets fan because he was.
Stu is right, though, that the joy of the Mets and Jets is the whole Snatching Defeat From the Jaws of Victory scenario.
I will never forgive Mark Gastineau for that roughing penalty.
#211 skeptic: In my area I am starting to see the big nominal price declines, and I expect they will accelerate.
Rub and Tug I think. (Don’t ask me how I know please.)
skeptic,
do think that we wont see any deflation?
if we see inflation followed by deflation, then the time horizon of the inflation (barring hyperinflation) will be insufficient to provide any real benefit in paying off debt
AAG (116)-
What underwater piece of RE are you trying to unload?
Please post the listing; maybe someone here will want to buy it.
Maybe Frank will? Or help you sell it to one of his hedge fund manager friends.
BC Bob Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
“Second question. Have you ever had a beer in the bleachers? If no, also a frontrunning moron.”
Chi, Better question, have you ever tossed cookies in the bleachers?
BC Bob: Other reasonable questions…..have you ever bought weed in the bleachers? Have you ever been blown in the bleachers?
#211 skeptic: How is this for a price cut in my so called prestigious Bergen Co town.
3 bed 1.5 bath POS Cape sold for 430k in May of 2006. Short sale offered by the bank at 359k. All the houses in this 2 block area are all the same 1950’s capes.
Whatever this house sells for whether full asking price or less, becomes the new comp for the neighborhood. If it sells for 359k, that is approximatley an 18% decline in about 2 years.
Just off hand, since no one has said anything…any comment from the metal bugs? I mean gold has posted a -17% in the last 30 days, and Goldman just undercut it to boot.
I think there are a few posters here who won’t admit to the gloom until a bank offers them a home for free when opening a checking account with direct deposit.
222 Stu
I hope someone gets that on video.
CHI
First question. Have you ever seen Don Mattingly play first base in the flesh? That will get rid of most of the morons if the answer is no.
MADE MY DAD TAKE ME TO A CARD SHOW TO MEET HIM IN THE WINTER OF 1983/4 WHEN HE’D ONLY HAD 200 SOME-ODD MLB AT BATS AND HAD HIT ALL OF .283 WITH 4 DINGERS. NETTLES HAD JUST LEFT THE TEAM, AND I NEEDED A NEW FAVORITE PLAYER, AND HE WAS IT.
ANOTHER QUESTION ON THE MATTINGLY FRONT IS: WHAT POSITIONS DID MATTINGLY PLAY FOR THE YANKS ASIDE FROM 1B, OF AND DH. ANYONE WHO DOESN’T KNOW HE PLAYED THIRD BASE A COUPLE OF TIMES IN 1986 (AND NOT JUST FOR ONE INNING, EITHER) IS NOT A MATTINGLY FAN.
Second question. Have you ever had a beer in the bleachers? If no, also a frontrunning moron.
I HAVE HAD BEER IN THE BLEACHERS; HAVE GAMBLED WITH THE BOOKIES ON THE GREAT SUBWAY RACE AND THE THREE-HAT MONTE; HAVE LIT A RED SOX HAT ON FIRE AND HELD IT UP ON A STICK; AND BACK WHEN PRICES WERE LOWER, SANG THE GREATEST OF THE BLEACHER CHANTS TO THE IDIOTS IN THE BOX SEATS 10 FEET AWAY IN RIGHT FIELD: “YOU PAID 19; WE PAID 6; WE ARE COOL AND YOU ARE D1CKS!”
Third Question. What is Kansas City? Correct answer…the major league team responsible for stocking the late-50’s/early-60’s with a second major league team worth of talent, cheapening all those pennants and rings.
ROGER MARIS, MOST NOTABLY. OF COURSE, THERE WAS NO FREE-AGENCY THEN, AND THE METS COULD HAVE MADE THOSE TRADES JUST AS EASILY. OH, WAIT, THEY DIDN’T EXIST.
Fourth Question. Why is it a joke that Roger Clemens won both CY Young and MVP in 1986?
Answer, because in 1978 in the analogous situation, Jim Rice took the MVP from Guidry, and Mattingly had one of the most unbelievable offensive season’s in Years in 1986.
THAT ONE WAS A SLAM DUNK.
THERE’S A RELATED GUIDRY ONE: NOTED COKEHEAD LAMARR HOYT WON THE CY YOUNG IN 1983 AND NOTED MET FLAMEOUT BRET SABERHAGEN WON IN 1985. IN ’83, GUIDRY WON 20 BUT NOT AS MANY AS HOYT, BUT HAD MORE Ks AND A BETTER ERA. IN 1985, THE ROLES WERE REVERSED. GUIDRY SHOULD HAVE HAD ONE OF THOSE CY’S.
Frank (165)-
So you are a Realtor?
My Mets loyalty dates back to my parents’ New York Giants loyalties: when the Giants and Dodgers left, you didn’t become a Yankees fan, you simply didn’t follow baseball. When the Mets came in 1962, many of their fans were old Giants and Dodgers fans eager to have something to cheer about. They became Mets fans, and I was born just in time to watch them lose the 73 Series, although I will have to take their word for it since I was 5 months old when that happened.
“Have you ever been blown in the bleachers?”
Chi,
Client 9?
BC Bob Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
“Have you ever been blown in the bleachers?”
Chi, Client 9?
Bost: “…when I was young and in my prime, I used to …………………….”
Chi [221],
I posted yesterday.
Goldman today? Sounds like they are a buyer?
BC Bob Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
Chi [221],
I posted yesterday.
Goldman today? Sounds like they are a buyer?
Bost: I like the way you think…..
#225,
No, I am not, I am a hedge fund guy.
“No, I am not, I am a hedge fund guy.”
[231]
Speaking of tossing cookies.
Just off hand, since no one has said anything…any comment from the metal bugs? I mean gold has posted a -17% in the last 30 days, and Goldman just undercut it to boot.
I’m still here Albani. I own the physical so I’m just chiiling right now. I actually added a small amount today just to keep me in the right frame of mind.
chi (221)-
Still long the shiny stuff. $800 triggers some more buying on my part.
All disclaimers.
“No, I am not, I am a hedge fund guy.”
The other side of Paulson’s, John, trades?
Also,
goldam is known for saying something and then putting their own money on just the opposite side of that same trade.
#231 Frank
Do you/did you work for the Clinton Group?
“No, I am not, I am a hedge fund guy.”
[231]
Speaking of tossing cookies.
BC, You took the words [er, I mean chunks] right out of my mouth!
sl
why is such behavior ( gold man saying godl is going low and then buying it up) not in violation of SEC rules?
So they can pump and dump and no one cares?
Re: yellow stuff
I would prefer GDX than GLD. GDX is trading at the lower end of 5-year bound.
All disclaimers apply.
#205 CF
First question. Have you ever seen Don Mattingly play first base in the flesh? Does Oldtimers day count …. :*) I’ve only lived in the US for 10 years and my first game was in 1998.
Second question. Have you ever had a beer in the bleachers? Not since they stopped selling it. I only went to the bleachers a few times. Not really my scene. Also, it would be on METS or Boston games were I would pick up tickets in the preseason sale to Season ticket holders. I had my first season ticket in 1999.
Third Question. What is Kansas City? The first flag along the back back wall or the Golden State Warriors of baseball. A team that has resigned itself to mediocrity.
Fourth Question. Why is it a joke that Roger Clemens won both CY Young and MVP in 1986? Beyond the fact that they lost the World Series and he was one of the reasons. I think if he gets to the hall is should be as a Boston player.
Fifth Question. (answer supplied by one of the most devout Yankee fans I know) Do you think the heat Jeter is getting this year is warranted? No because looking just at the numbers he has been a good player but not a great. In fact the best short stop the Yankees have is standing beside him on third base. What he does bring in spades is heart, passion and humility. That is why he was the only that measured up to be Captain of the Yankees since Mattingly
Nom,
IMHO, it is far more likely that the state goes bankrupt first.
The most sad and true commentary of the day…
It’s a big a game of chicken between, the governor, legislators, unions and taxpayers. Whoever blinks first loses.
Frank (165)-
“My is in billions, what’s yours?”
Huh? Billions? Billions served?
Frank, do you work the counter at the McDonald’s on the Thruway?
If so, please restrain yourself from measurinng RE sales against hamburgers.
“I would prefer GDX than GLD. GDX is trading at the lower end of 5-year bound.”
Time to sell your gold. Just removed my limit buys at $800.
Not really.
Kettle– not sure how to account for the deflation risk in terms of buying a house. I sort of think that is one of those cataclysmic events like war, asteroid, etc that are always present but can’t really prevent you from moving forward not because they can’t happen, but because you’d never make a move if you worried about it too much. Although maybe this just reflects my ignorance on the subject
#239 kettle1
I wonder if they’ve been accumulating puts and will cash them in if the market drops.
How come IBs are not required to reveal their positions when they make these announcements?
chicagofinance Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
stuw6 Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
ChiFi:
A friend of mine who lives and works in Manhattan was looking for a financial adviser as he is 10 years away from retirement and needs tons of advice as he is not financially savvy, although he is a pretty good saver. His income level is probably between 80K and 100K.
Where should he look for such a person? Any advice would be greatly appreciated. He as well as I am clueless as to where to find one and how to gauge their value.
stuw6: Before I answer completely, I will let the masses chime in, because everyone will have an opinion.
I will be biased based on my own background. The person has to have a CFP, and once that is established, check the person’s record for any incidents or disciplinary action. Basically, there shouldn’t be any…
There are two major organizations out there, one is the FPA and other is NAPFA.
I will leave it there and let the wave of responses begin. Ultimately, I will tell you in advance that people are going to be very authoritarian in their opinions, but in the end does that really help you find help? We’ll see……
I will respond more fully later….
stuw6: It appears that this generated about zero conversation yesterday.
I will be purposely wishy-washy. It depends on what you want. If you want someone to focus on your investments OR someone to look at your whole situation. You must choose how you feel comfortable paying that person, or even the idea of paying someone at all. It also depends on how much you are willing to spend/assets involved. There are many people that strongly advocate for certain approaches, such as a fee-only arrangement. What they fail to mention, is that many fee-only financial advisors often impose very high investment minimums, so even though they espouse a philosophy of objectivity, they also “conveniently” charge a lot of money. Of the fee-only people in the NYC-area that have minimum’s less than $500K-$1M of investable assets, many (NOT ALL) are probably less experienced, and looking to use you for a training ground. OF COURSE there are exceptions to this opinion – AND I am biased here to boot.
I show greatest respect for people like me (what do you expect):
1. Combination of fees and/or commissions (fee-offset arrangement if possible) tailored to what is most appropriate from my perspective, and what the client is comfortable using.
2. Armed with strong combination of experience and / or credentials. Look for CFP’s, (real) MBA’s, (real) CPA’s, (real) JD’s.
3. Focus on service over product, meaning a consultative relationship. Using an auto example, if you walk into a Ford dealership, they are going to sell you a Ford. If you sign up with a service to help you find a good mid-size car, they will help direct you to the right choices, hopefully vet them, and give you competitive prices.
You have to like your service provider and have some chemistry.
I am going to search for something I wrote awhile ago.
Frank Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
#225,
No, I am not, I am a hedge fund guy.
NOT
shiny metal,
The minuscule amount that i do trade on, i trade for long term positions. Both of my positions in gold and energy are long term “long” positions. I have neither the time nor the inclination to play day trader. large swings do not bother me if i am confident in my long term stance.
Clotpoll Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
chi (221)-
Still long the shiny stuff. $800 triggers some more buying on my part.
All disclaimers.
I guess you have been triggered.
kettle1 Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
why is such behavior ( gold man saying godl is going low and then buying it up) not in violation of SEC rules?
So they can pump and dump and no one cares?
ket: Get the Treasury after them……..oooooooooooops
Here we go…..
http://chicagofinance.blogspot.com/
Thanks ChiFi. Makes complete sense.
[242] hard
What is being done in Mass. is a game of chicken, but in NJ, it is more like Keep Away. What inevitably results is that, when you can’t vote out the opposition, you vote yourself out, that is to say, you vote with your feet. That is one reason many on this board are leery of buying R.E. in NJ–they effectively become economic slaves to the state. That is also why a goodly portion of Bucks residents work in NJ or NYC–they voted with their feet.
Mass saw the same thing when residents flooded into So. NH, but since NH and MA don’t have a tax compact (and never will), MA actually made out since it got to tax residents of another state. NJ however loses when folks relo to Bucks—even if they work in NJ, they pay (lower) taxes in PA. And if they work in NY, they still make out with cheaper housing and lower taxes.
NJ also is losing corporate taxpayers at a pretty darn good clip (mostly small to mid-sized, which is not well publicized), and will rely increasingly on individuals to make up the shortfall. But individuals are highly mobile and can easily avoid NJ tax jurisdiction just by moving. Most of those leaving will be retirees and if they are replaced by lower income families, it puts the system into a death spiral since the state pays more for education and benefits, but can’t recoup as well from less well-heeled taxpayers.
For better or worse, I close on 9/2 in Brigadoon. I will be hoping that housing recovers sufficiently so that in 15 years, when I plan to sell, I can do so with my shirt and not have to engage in tax planning to be able to write off a loss. At that point, I am revoking my NJ residence (if I haven’t revoked it long before that time in order to get into a juris. with a good state university so little nom gets the in-state rate).
chi,
i already new the answer, it was a general statement. When your buddies run the treasury, the canadian central bank etc you get away with more then most
Who says you can’t find affordable housing in NJ.
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?ctid=15496&mnp=8&mxp=20&typ=7&sid=47723cbc32514dd59971aad9e35e27c0&lid=1101210993&lsn=1&srcnt=2#Detail
#255 – $78k ? – Almost 80 thou to live in a trailer by the railroad tracks. They must be on dust.
I would be uncomfortable buying in NJ simply because the state’s big cash cow comes from the property taxes. Lets face it, a lot of people can’t pick up and move. I mean, they could, but my family moved 4 or 5 times. It’s always a pain in the ass.
#255 BC Bob,
A double wide in Hazlet. Ugh.
#253 Nom: Do you belive you got a good deal. My apologies if I asked this already.
tosh/bairen,
“Lot rent is 600.55. This includes your water, taxes, garbage, sewer and snow removal.”
LOL.
248 bairen,
i will go live here
http://www.4meadowbrook.net/sales_home_detail?id=22623
before i live in a trailer in hazlet
255#, bob, that was frank’s house. i recall he lived in hazlet before he became a hedge fund guy.
bi [262],
I thought I recognized it.
#255,
Is the Katrina formaldehyde fumes include in the sales price? If so count me in. Cheaper than the crack I have been smoking lately.
256
“They must be on dust.”
Had me LOLing.
formaldehyde soaked cigarettes are/were a popular high amongst the teens and 20’s crowd in the tri-state area. there were a lot of thefts from mortuaries of formaldehyde….
# 213 “Joe Pisarcik years (and no, it wasn’t Joe’s fault))). ”
Like hell. He should have taken a bloody knee.
# 215 Stu, Is there something you want to confess to us? :)
# 222 Well, with some going for $1 in Det, why not.
Another reason why we should all move to trailer homes.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/CRIME/08/14/captive.family/index.html
” Neighbors unaware of man’s family, trailer’s squalor”
# 239 “pump and dump ”
Is this an economic phrase or one of John’s (and now Stu’s)phrase?
57: Got one in May from Costco on sale. Delivery prompt. Mattress takes a while to get used to, but fine. Have nothing equivalent to compare it to quality-wise, but nothing to complain about.
About offshore drilling and how long does it take to get it online (analysis by Institute for Energy Research):
“For oil, California is the quickest relief. Existing platforms there would allow access to some of the leases companies paid $1.1 billion for in 1981, but have been precluded from developing for 26 years. California is the nation’s largest consumer of gasoline, so it could go directly to their extensive refinery network, also. The estimates are that 10 billion barrels exist off the coast of California, and tankers full of imported oil and Alaska North Slope oil go through those protected waters every day.”
Where to Drill First
About 66% of voters support this, but at least we get government shutdown if Pelosi insists on keeping the ban. Both options sound great. Talk about win-win situation.
so oil could be flowing in a matter of months, not years.
270
sounds like Goldman is doing a trash and cache instead….
Pan the asset then hoard it when the price drops.
sl
271 alia,
Thanks! Is it a memory foam mattress? MrSL is hell-bent on a fix for his aching back.
Did you order it at Costco or online? How long for delivery, etc…
Sorry for the barrage of questions and thanks in advance!
sl
SG,
“Pump and dump” is when a bunch of people tout a security ie stock, and try to drive the price up [pump] then sell it off [dump] after the price rises.
It also describes what bre@st feeding moms do if they are taking a med they shouldnt expose their nursing child to ie pump milk then dump it.
sl
Merrill Lynch freezes hiring for rest of year: report
>>
When will they stop cutting?
A To Be Announced Market? Well they have created TAF and TSLF, wht not TBA?
“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest sources of financing for U.S. home loans, each jumped more than 7 percent after the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association said larger loans financed by the two companies will be allowed in the main market for mortgage bonds.”
“Revised guidelines for the so- called To Be Announced market will accept securities composed of as much as 10 percent of the loans, according to a statement from the trade group. The group said jumbo mortgage borrowers may pay lower interest rates as a result of the change.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTFC_F1sIYuc&refer=home
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/01/smallbusiness/blacklight.fsb/index.htm?postversion=2008070210
Kettle,
Are you behind this. Can this be true? Please advise.
Teaneck FUTURE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 170 CRANFORD PL $428,000 8/4/2006
MLS#: 2800148 (Short sale)
Orig List: $465,000 1/2/2008
Last List: $415,000 8/14/2008
RE 280: Per the tax records they have $68 of “equity” invested?
Deed $440,840 8/3/2006
Mortgage $352,672 8/10/2006
Mortgage $88,100 8/10/2006
Saddle Brook FUTRE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 86 PLATT AVE $700,000 10/10/2006
MLS#: 2829465 (Subject to bank approval)
Orig List: $825,000 5/1/2007
Last List: $629,000 8/14/2008
Saddle Brook FUTURE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 28 HARROP AVE $405,000 11/29/2005
MLS#: 2803039
Orig List: $449,900 4/7/2007
Last List: $290,000 8/14/2008
any further info on this To Be Announced market? the name is obviously confidence inspiring
#284
And acurrency to be named later?
a currency, even
Leonia FUTURE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 416 CHRISTIE LN $440,000 10/5/2005
MLS#: 2811616 (REO)
Orig List: $409,000 3/24/2008
Last List: $359,000 8/14/2008
Garfield FUTURE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 59 SAMPSON ST $305,000 7/27/2006
MLS#: 2828496 (REO)
Orig List: $243,900 7/9/2008
Last List: $209,900 8/14/2008
Rich,
Just for grins, do you have a link to that $209k listing?
Realtor.com hasn’t had their listing updated yet but you can find it here.</
It is kind of ugly.
2 bedrooms 1 bathroom = postage stamp
Heh, for 175,000 I will sell you my…
3 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath, 3000 square foot home (Full finished basement with wet bar) in Xenia, Ohio. Located adjacent to 40 acre park.
8 Laughing:
Yeah, I’m here. Was unloading clothes and cleaning the fridge today, my way. Takes me a little longer to do stuff limping.
There’re are several good Indian places. Veggie place, Wednesday night Chaat Night, Uduppi Dosa, Bensalem. Cheap, good buffet: Indian Garden, Yardley. Best value per a couple of Indian guys we know is a place on Street Road, near the race track. It looks like an old fast food restaurant, but I can’t think of the name right now. It’s not the place in the plaza over closer to Route 95.
291
Yea, it is a dump. Not that I am looking for anyplace that is not waterfront (lake or ocean) or at least an easy walk to the ocean and with a view of it. I was just curious. Thanks.
The point of the listings isn’t to illicit a critique but to show the drop in pricing.
I’m sure it wasn’t a 3 bed, 1 1/2 bath stunner in 2006 when it sold for $96,000 more than the current asking.
#289
that place is fugly.