Q2 Home Prices Down 7.6%, Sales Down 16.3%

From the National Association of Realtors:

Metro Area Home Prices

From Bloomberg:

U.S. Home Sales Fall to 10-Year Low as Prices Tumble

Existing U.S. home sales fell to a 10- year low in the second quarter and the median price for a single- family house dropped 7.6 percent as the real estate recession deepened.

The median price tumbled to $206,500 from $223,500 a year earlier, the Chicago-based National Association of Realtors said today. Sales of single-family houses and condominiums fell 16 percent to 4.913 million at an annualized pace.

There were 4.49 million U.S. homes for sale at the end of June, the highest in a year, according the Realtors’ association. At the current sales pace, that represented 11.1 months’ worth, up from 10.8 months’ worth at the end of May, the trade group said in a July 24 report.

Foreclosures are depressing home prices, contributing to job losses and weakening consumption as fewer people borrow against the value of their home, New York-based analysts at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. said Aug. 7.

From the AP:

Median home prices fall around US

Median home prices fell in more than three-quarters of U.S. cities in the second quarter, the latest sign of the breadth of the housing market decline, according to new data Thursday.

Nevertheless, home sales rose in areas where the market is flooded with foreclosures, indicating that borrowers are taking advantage of steep discounts.

Nevada and California, battered by a housing market bust, were the only states to show sales gains in the second quarter compared with a year earlier, according to a report by the National Association of Realtors.

Nationally, sales fell by 16.3 percent in the second quarter compared with the same period a year ago.

In recent months, the biggest home sales gains “have been in some of the markets with the steepest and fastest price drops,” said Lawrence Yun, the trade group’s chief economist. “Buyers in these areas are responding to deeply discounted home prices.”

The Realtors group said median prices for existing single-family homes dropped in 115 of 150 metropolitan areas in the April-June period, while 35 metro areas saw prices increase.

Nationally, the median home price — the point where half the homes sold for more and half for less — fell to $206,500 in the second quarter, down by 7.6 percent from the same period a year ago, when the median sales price was $205,700.

From the WSJ:

NAR: Metro-Area Home Prices Slide
August 14, 2008 12:42 p.m.

early one in four metropolitan areas in the U.S. saw home prices rise in the second quarter, according to data released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors, though the group’s president said foreclosures are distorting data.

NAR’s results, which come from its survey of 150 metropolitan statistical areas — saw 35 areas with higher median existing single-family home prices than a year earlier. That sounds a bit better than what’s been said elsewhere in the market in recent months, though it also means 115 — or 77% — of the areas studied saw price declines.

NAR also said the median existing single-family home price fell 7.6% nationally in the second quarter. It blamed foreclosures and short sales — which accounted for a third of transactions — with pulling prices down.

Breaking the country down into four regions, the West logged the biggest drop, 17.4%, while prices in the Northeast declined 9.6%, dipped 0.9% in the Midwest and fell 4.1% in the South. Prices fell the most in parts of California and Florida, with several areas reporting declines of more than 30%.

Existing-home sales fell 16.3%.

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51 Responses to Q2 Home Prices Down 7.6%, Sales Down 16.3%

  1. jmacdaddio says:


  2. stu says:

    damn you jmac :p

  3. stan says:


    mls# 80006379
    06/30/06 7941 143 $497500

    closed this week for $475,000

    2 bedroom 900 sq ft

  4. grim says:

    A Hoboken comp killer? How about that.

  5. stan says:

    11/15/05 7759 128 $520000

    closed this week for $521,500

    2 bedroom 1125 sq ft

  6. grim says:

    Two? Surely a coincidence.

  7. chicagofinance says:


  8. stan says:

    RE Hoboken:

    Two of the nine two-bedroom properties which closed this week lost money. Of the remaining seven, there were two in hudson tea that just about broke even if you included all the normal fees. This one below lost if normal commission, closing costs etc are included….

    11th and Hudson street
    02/24/06 7833 286 $636000
    sold for $656500

    The other’s were either longtime owners or conversions from what I can gather.

  9. kettle1 says:


    regarding blacklight from previous thread.

    It is possible that this is the real deal however the odds are against it. Similar claims have been made before and have turned out to be previously know processes, just tweaked.

    The real challenge is in scale up. There are lots of neat physics processes that work great at bench scale but fail horribly when you try to scale them up to industrial scale. you dont know until you try.
    The other issue is that going from bench scale to industrial scale can take 10 to 15 years. a quick transition would be 8 years. the transition from bench to industrial scale can be/is fairly complex and not as simple as “just make it bigger”

    file it away in the back of your mind and check up on it in 5 years. then you will see what the deal is. it will either be in the scale up process or it will be dead. if its in the cscale up process it coould still fail but has a better then 50% chance at that point.

  10. bairen says:


  11. kettle1 says:

    people think we are doom-n-gloom?!?!?!?

    what follows is a comment from another blog by one of the posters who has been making damn accurate calls for over the last year. take it for what you will, if we are doom-n-gloom, she is armageaden. I dont feel i understand the finer points of the markets well enough to call her opinion one way or the other…..

    We’re already late in this rally as it’s been going on since mid-July. It’s maximum potential should be in the vicinity of the trendline from 1974 that was broken during the last phase of the decline, which would take the market to the low 12,000s. A return to test the underside of a trendline is commonly called a ‘kiss good-bye’, as the market would then resume the larger trend. The market need not necessarily reach this level before resuming its decline though.

    When the rally is over, we can expect a sharp reversal heralding the beginning of a more significant fall than we’ve seen so far over the last year. I would expect this phase to last until late autumn and to include or culminate in something people are likely to call a crash (although it will probably only be the first of several such cascading events). I think (at the very least) the market will break through the October 2002 (about DJIA 7500) this year, with much more downside potential to come thereafter. I’d be surprised if the DJIA was over 1000 by the end of 2010, and even then I think there’ll further to go to the downside.

  12. bairen says:


    Wow, 3 out of 9 lost money. I thought Hoboken was “special”.

    Now if you tack on the association fees for hosing the whiz and chunks off the stoop 3 ties a week they’re really in the hole.

  13. bairen says:

    #13 kettle1,

    That guy is way too gloomy. i don’t see that happening. i could be way wrong. Wouldn’t be the first time.

  14. kettle1 says:


    as i said,
    it is indeed an extreme prediction as that would be a real great depression 2.0

    the only reason i post it is because the poster has been callling the majority of the major moves for the last year accuratly. perhaps she got ahead of herslef? i am certainly not rooting for that outcome but if i was a betting man, given her track record i would put some money down

  15. kettle1 says:

    i have to add, a comment that grim has made before:

    “betting armageaden is a losing position”

    My main point was to try and spark some debate amongst the finance gurus here.

  16. bairen says:


    I think if the dow fell 90%, Berkshire Hathaway and some of the private equity boys as well as sovereign wealth funds would take most of them over.

    All disclaimers. Could be completely wrong.

  17. kettle1 says:

    the prediction from #13 would put us back to (DJIA)june 1997 or the dip in sep 2002

  18. Al says:

    I was watching Olympics…

    After that there is “On The Money” show on CNBC.

    Stories they air are unbelievable… People are idiots….

  19. Al says:

    # kettle1 Says:
    August 14th, 2008 at 8:17 pm

    the prediction from #13 would put us back to (DJIA)june 1997 or the dip in sep 2002

    With Inflation being AT 11-12% (AND THATS OFFICIAL NUMBER) THERE IS NO WAY DJIA will be below 10,000.

    I called bottom at Nominal 11,600 about 3 month ago -I was a bit off.

    Remember – with 10% inflation if DJIA stays at 11,000 for two years – we have “real” value dropping below 9000.

  20. bairen says:


    Is she claiming DOW 1,000 or 10,000 in 2010?

  21. Victorian says:


    This prediction is not by someone named “Miss America”, is it? If it is, I would take that very seriously. But I have not found her to be that apocalyptic.

  22. kettle1 says:

    photo’s from a russian soldier in osetia

    real combat, not just CNN highlights


  23. ben says:

    With the inflation we are creating, we’ll make that Dow 36,000 book a reality soon enough.

  24. lostinny says:

    24 Kettle
    Some of those were really graphic. Wow.

  25. Cindy says:

    (17) Kettle – I’m no financial guru but I do have an opinion…Im figuring 9600. – it’s just a number.

    I’m usually able to follow Roubini’s thinking, I get the need to write down $2T or more. Banks get capital – write down -get capital – write down. They are going to need to do that for a while. But I don’t see Armageddon.

    I was thinking about the conversation earlier (when I was at work) about prices and how much they will fall and if they will fall everywhere.

    Not every state is in as poor a condition as we are here. CA alone makes up for 26.5% of the foreclosure filing in the US (Dr. Housing Bubble Blog.) We saw a drop of 38% in one year. Over built – over priced. Not every state went up so drastically so they don’t have as far to fall. We are still over priced.

    But even with that sad state of affairs there are neighborhoods people would jump at the chance to move into. Very few listings so when they come up – the homes are snatched up. But in the over built areas, and lower end neighborhoods where folks were foolish with their money, you find tons of foreclosures.

    Remember yesterday when Skep-tic was talking about Tuscany and how if anything went on the market, he would jump at a chance to buy. Maybe some places will come on the market but they probably won’t have to drop the price much to get people interested.

    It just seems like even though times are hard here and many houses are going for a song, it is still a location, location, location situation to some extent.

    I have a friend who bought an older home (estate sale) in a neighborhood that never has a for sale sign (near a golf course on my weekend walking route.) He is only leaving the footprint of the house, tearing it all down to build. He just wanted the location.

  26. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (27)-

    Even your bubblewrapped neighborhoods are going to feel the pain. They’re just going to feel it last.

    Nobody gets out alive this time.

  27. BklynHawk says:


    How did you find that site? Do you read Russian?

    Was it someone on here who linked to the story of the financial analyst who called the Russian/Georgian conflict?

    I’ll try to find it if not.

  28. MJ says:

    I’m in the market for a home, and the housing market is making it difficult to get the right home for the right price. It is very frustrating.

    My Realtor keeps thinking that the fact that houses are selling once marked down a hundred grand or so is an indication things won’t fall much further.

    But what I see is that houses will continue to be bought and sold at about the pace they are now — while the sale price keeps falling all along the months and years ahead.

  29. Sybarite101 X says:


    I hear you.

    It’s as Clotpoll says: “you can’t get tomorrow’s prices today.” You just have to be patient and wait until tomorrow.

  30. MJ says:

    Sybarite101 X: It’s tough. Wife and I are 39, we married at 36, kid is 18 months old, we’ve both rented our whole adult lives, saved piles of cash, always done the smart, tough, and safe thing financially. Now that we’re ready to buy our home, the market is a mess. We can’t wait long. We’re angry at the state of things, which is no fault of our own.

  31. Clotpoll says:

    Chi (30)-

    Agreed. Where else in the world can a dolt with a 90 IQ and a big mouth parlay it into millions? That this guy could survive on WFAN for 19 years always scared me.

    Drive-time radio might be for the common guy, but Russo was unlistenable. I listened to him the whole week after 9/11, as he tried to be a reporter and relay basic facts about what was going on. He could not do it, but his incompetence was so fascinating, I couldn’t turn it off.

  32. Clotpoll says:

    MJ (31)-

    So, what’s wrong with that?

  33. Clotpoll says:

    MJ (34)-

    Then go ahead and buy. The market is the market. It bends for no one.

  34. SybariteX says:


    There are options. You’re not the only folks in your type of situation. There are some killer deals out there on SFH rentals. Consider doing that for a year or so, and you can watch the price declines in real time.

    On the flip side, you can do your due diligence and take the time to find a place where you can confidently spend 10+ years, and take the plunge. Try to get the best deal you can, and hope for the best.

    Responsible people will always come out ahead. At least that’s what the idealist in me believes.

  35. Al says:

    ybarite101 X: It’s tough. Wife and I are 39, we married at 36, kid is 18 months old, we’ve both rented our whole adult lives, saved piles of cash,

    If you do have piles of cash – move to cheaper and beautiful locale, buy a house with all cash, get a low-stress job, and enjoy your life.

    IF you decide to stay in NJ – thats your choice.

  36. njpatient says:

    13 ket

    In my view, technical analysis is 97% bullshyte, except to the extent that you can predict market moves that result from a group of louts doing the same technical analysis.

  37. njpatient says:

    28 clot/38 chi


  38. njpatient says:

    30 chi, that is

  39. njpatient says:

    Bloomberg reposrting that ML has NOL carryforwards that will take its UK tax bill to 0 for the next 60 YEARS!

  40. njpatient says:

    34 MJ
    I hear you. Mrs. Patient and I have stored up some anger as well.
    That’s why my schadenfreude is so strong.

  41. bairen says:

    #30 chifi,

    That show was unlistenable. It was the same show for 19 years. I actually like the morning show with Boomer, but Mike and the Mad Dog was the male version of The View.

  42. bairen says:

    #31 MJ,

    Was your agent saying from 2000 until 2005 that housing will always appreciate a these double digit rates?

    It’s frustrating how out of wack prices got with incomes and net worth. Completely irrational and a waste of the U.S’s resources.

  43. tbw says:

    “If you do have piles of cash – move to cheaper and beautiful locale, buy a house with all cash, get a low-stress job, and enjoy your life.

    IF you decide to stay in NJ – thats your choice.

    Al, they have an 18 month old. NJ is a good choice for the prestigious schools…and family perhaps?

  44. 3b says:

    #20 Al; I watche On the Money fro a little bit the other nught. Som guy form Charlotte bought a house for 170K, 2 years ago, put no money down, and wants to sell it and buy a cheaper house.

    His current interest rate was 9.75 with a 50 YEAR MTG!!!

  45. 3b says:

    #28 clot:Nobody gets out alive this time.

    Did they ever?

  46. MJ says:

    As folks guessed, we are staying in NJ for schools and family.

  47. Steve says:

    At some point, IMHO you really just have to let go of the frustration and anger and deal with the situation as it is, what you can control- your actions only.

    There are always oppportunities, especially amidst chaotic meltdowns. I mean, a h*ll of a lot better to be sitting on cash than having bought at the peak, right?

    I guess it depends on how you define things. Renting a great sfh house, with no long term liability and no NJ taxes to pay, watching the comps drop drop drop, that seems like a pretty good gig all things considered.

    In the past month, I’ve suddenly been deluged with friends/colleagues, all itching to buy NOW and looking for confirmation. I just smile, say talk to me in spring of 2011, and then don’t expect any appreciation for years after that.

    Thinly concealed sheeple annoyance is pretty typical.

    Of course I expect every one of them will be trying to catch the knife over the next 6mos-year.

    To each their own.

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