Don’t forget to buy your tickets for the I.O.U.S.A. Screening GTG
Thursday, August 21st at 8:00pm
AMC Clifton Commons 16
405 Route 3 East
Clifton, NJ 07014
Tickets can be purchased online, click here.
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This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.
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From the Star Ledger:
Homebuyers on hunt for bargains
Frank Wible, owner of ReMax All Pros Realty, said homebuyers who walk into his office these days are interested in just two things.
“They all come into our office and they say, ‘I want to see foreclosures and short sales,'” said Wible, whose brokerage is in Gloucester County. “They’re all saying the same thing. They want the best deal coming.”
Wible has plenty of company.
Across the country, homebuyers’ insatiable appetite for foreclosed and distressed properties is a big reason home prices took a dive in the second quarter, according to housing data released yesterday by the National Association of Realtors.
The trade group reported the median price for a single-family home slipped 7.6 percent, to $206,500 from $223,500 a year earlier. In the Northeast, the median price tumbled nearly 9.6 percent, to $269,000.
…
In New Jersey, the regional market that saw the biggest drop in home prices during the second quarter was the Newark-Union “metropolitan statistical area,” or MSA, where the median price fell 6.9 percent, to $420,000. The Newark-Union MSA includes Essex, Hunterdon, Morris, Sussex and Union counties. Next in line was the New York-northern New Jersey MSA, where the median home price fell 5.3 percent, to $453,400.
In the Edison MSA, which includes Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean and Somerset counties, the median home price fell 3.1 percent to $373,000. Even Atlantic County, where the housing market has been extremely resilient, saw the median home price fall 1.5 percent, to $255,900.
2nd
Wow…so price is edging down in nj too. We need to raise the bar for camp killer in this board!
From the Home News Tribune:
Foreclosures soar despite efforts to help
The magnitude of home foreclosures appears to be overwhelming the efforts of lenders to help distressed borrowers keep their homes.
To help stem the wave of foreclosures, some lenders have been easing the terms of loans, helping owners refinance or even letting homes be sold for less than the value of the mortgage — called a “short sale.” But so far, those efforts have had only modest success.
From the WSJ:
World Economy Shows New Strain
European Output Shrinks, U.S. Inflation Jumps;
Fresh Worries in Developing Nations
By JUSTIN LAHART in New York, ALISTAIR MACDONALD in London and MARCUS WALKER in Berlin
August 15, 2008; Page A1
The global economy — which had long remained resilient despite U.S. weakness — is now slowing significantly, with Europe offering the latest evidence of trouble.
On Thursday, the European Union’s statistics agency said gross domestic product in the euro zone contracted 0.2% in the second quarter, the equivalent of a 0.8% annual rate of decline. It marked the first time since the early 1990s that GDP has fallen overall in the 15 countries that use the euro.
In a fresh sign of the pressures facing the American economy, the Labor Department said Thursday that U.S. consumer-price inflation hit a 17-year high in July, rising 5.6% from a year earlier.
With the European growth report, four of the world’s five biggest economies — the U.S., the euro zone, Japan and the U.K. — are now flirting with recession.
…
The global weakness marks a sharp reversal of expectations for many corporations and investors, who at the year’s outset had predicted that major economies would remain largely insulated from America’s woes.
For the U.S., economic sluggishness abroad is both a blessing and a curse. Lower commodity prices are giving welcome relief. In addition, the dollar has strengthened as other economies lose steam — which benefits U.S. consumers by cutting the cost, in dollar terms, of imports ranging from flatware to flat-screen TVs.
Yet at the same time, weaker foreign economies also undercut one of the few remaining bright spots in the U.S. economy: exports. Indeed, in a sign the world is dialing back its shopping spree of the past few years, the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of demand for shipping services, has fallen 37% since hitting a record on May 20, including a stretch of 23-straight down days. Dollar strength could also hurt U.S. exports by making U.S.-made goods pricier abroad. The dollar rose against the euro Thursday to levels unseen since February.
From CNBC:
Foreclosure Numbers: Borrowers Not Getting Help They Need
Despite all the programs to help troubled borrowers, the foreclosure numbers continue to rise and there’s trouble inside the numbers as well.
RealtyTrac, the online foreclosure sale site, put out its monthly report today, and it shows foreclosure filings on 272,171 properties in July. That’s up 55% from a year ago. This big number includes default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions. The default notices don’t necessarily mean the home is going into foreclosure. The bank repossession is, of course, the final stage when the owner loses the home for good.
So when you break down the total numbers, RealtyTrac finds default notices up 53% (year-over-year), auction sale notices up 11% and bank repossessions up a whopping 184%.
…
What that says to me is that the downward pressure on home prices isn’t going to ebb anytime soon. Foreclosure sales are usually well below the median sale price in a neighborhood.
From AHN:
Donald Trump Racks Up Positive Karma; Helps Ed McMahon By Buying His Mansion And Let Him Continue To Live There
Donald Trump shows off his generous side as he lends a hand to financially strapped former game show host Ed McMahon by buying his mansion to avoid its foreclosure.
The real estate tycoon said he plans to buy the 85-year-old McMahon’s Beverly Hills residence from the lender and lease it to the former “Star Search” host and his wife Pamela.
Trump tells Los Angeles Times, “I don’t know the man, but I grew up watching him on TV.”
The Donald’s generosity originated from McMahon’s listing agent when he flew to New York and proposed the idea to the “Apprentice” star.
He continues, “When I was at the Wharton School of Business, I’d watch him every night. How could this happen?”
From MarketWatch:
Merrill Lynch freezes hiring until year end, assesses needs
Merrill Lynch has frozen hiring until the end of the year, temporarily shelving plans to hire positions which have had received budget approval, and leaving recently-vacated positions unfilled, according to a media report Friday. Retail brokers, which account for about one-sixth of the firm’s 60,000 employees, are excluded from the hiring freeze, according to a Reuters’ report, which cited a company-wide memo sent to employees Wednesday. Merrill Lynch has cut 4,200 jobs in the first half.
What towns in Bergen County have decent schools?
Clot – from last night
Let me see if I understand…So people will still buy in this environment but now they are buying a depreciating asset. (Like when you drive a new car off the lot.) If I understand depreciating assets, they are something that you buy that decreases in value over the length of ownership. So the only way to get around that is to hold onto your “asset” – home – long enough for it to even out or go up. And not to add huge amounts of interest onto your cost.
If you have short-term goals – you just need to know it is like driving a new car off the lot – you take a hit the minute you purchase it. But unlike a car (except on rare occasion) you do someday have the chance – way down the road – to turn it into an appreciating asset….or are you saying it will never happen, even if you hold onto it for 20 years.
Big buyout plans for some S. Jersey school officials. NJ can’t stop a $740,876 payment due to Keansburg Superintendent Barbara A. Trzeszkowski, although state officials are fighting that payment in court. Across the state, six school administrators had buyout clauses topping $200,000. Around 30 had six-figure retirement payments.
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/home_top_stories/20080815_Big_buyout_plans_for_some_S__Jersey_school_officials.html
Good morning,
Can anyone provide any information on the house below? Realtor just told me its in contract but he does not know the agreed price. Its a 1970 beaten-up, neglected 3/2.
6 Windfall Ln, Trenton, NJ 08690, Mercer County (may be listed as Robbinsville, not trenton)
Many thanks in advance.
(10) The interest comment relates to say buying a T.V. with your credit card then not paying off the balance. Not only is the T.V. going down in value, but you are adding interest to the cost as well.
So Clot – If you feel you need to buy now, what is the best approach?
RE- 11
DL, This is NJ, and it is all for the kids.
Taxpayers don’t mind paying through the nose, even as jobs leave NJ, afterall corruption is king!
From The Record
Official admits taking bribes to ease inspections
The former deputy director of Paterson’s Section 8 housing program admitted today that he pocketed thousands of dollars in bribes to guarantee trouble-free building inspections.
Benny Ramos, 44, of Clifton, also told a federal judge in Newark that he steered low-income tenants to properties managed by a corrupt real estate broker-turned-informant.
Ramos was the highest-ranking of 14 public officials charged with taking bribes in March 2007 in a federal sting aimed at low-level public corruption.
…
Answering “yes, your honor” to a series of questions, Ramos conceded he knew what he was doing was illegal when he accepted cash payments of between $10,000 and $30,000 from Michael Eliasof, a Mahwah real estate broker and property manager.
Eliasof cooperated with the FBI and the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development’s Office of Inspector General in the 14-month probe.
Ramos acknowledged receiving multiple bribes from Eliasof between 2004 and February 2006 in return for help in obtaining prompt and trouble-free inspections of the buildings Eliasof managed and steering Section 8-eligible tenants to his apartments .
Eliasof has pleaded guilty for his role helping to launder mortgage loan proceeds in a $7.5 million real estate scam and is awaiting sentencing. During his stint as an undercover cooperating witness, Eliasof paid out relatively meager amounts of cash – from $50 to $3,000 – in a series of bribery transactions that were captured on audio and video recorders.
From The Record
Bergen home sales have fallen by 28 percent
Home prices in the New York metropolitan area dropped more than values nationwide in the second quarter of this year, the National Association of Realtors said today.
That was a change from the area’s strength during the first years of the housing downturn. The NAR reported that home prices in the region, which includes North Jersey, declined 10.8 percent in the second quarter from the same period a year ago, compared with a 7.6 percent drop nationwide.
The area, which includes Bergen and Passaic counties, as well as New York City and Westchester, remains one of the costliest housing markets in the nation, with the median price of an existing single-family home at $498,500…
More at the link above
Russia wants to flex its damn muscles and threaten Poland and indirectly the USA. This is bullshlt. I don’t give a damn if they hold treasuries or supply oil to Europe. This can’t be allowed.
This is my personal message to that commie punk Pukin. If you touch even as much as one hair of Poland, I will personally come to the Kremlin and give you a beatdown. I’ve had enough.
If we all personally took that stance, a lot of problems caused by commie and/or terrorist tyrants would be nipped in the damn bud.
WARSAW, Poland – An agreement that will allow the United States to install a missile defense battery in Poland exposes the ex-communist nation to an attack, a Russian general said Friday.
Poland and the United States struck a deal on Thursday to deepen military ties and place a missile interceptor base in Poland.
Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, deputy chief of the Russian general staff told reporters Friday that the agreement exacerbates U.S.-Russian relations that are already tense because of fighting between Georgian and Russian forces. He said the deal “cannot go unpunished.”
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26203430
grim (7)-
It’s a bailout world. Maybe Trump should abandon Apprentice, and start a TV show where he bails out celebrities in foreclosure.
He can call it “Extreme Bailout”. Maybe MTV can show it after “Cribs”.
I can see the Donald applying the toughlove to some idiot rapper:
“Killaface, I’ll help you…but this stripper pole in your kitchen has to go!”
Drat. #17 moderated.
Cindy (10)-
Doubtless, RE values will turn at some point, and housing will appreciate again.
If you look at the US, post-WWII, boom/bust cycles take about 10 years to fully play out. Nasty as things seem right now, we’ll probably see the same thing this time.
Too bad we’re only about four years into the current cycle, though…
“Foreclosures soar despite efforts to help”
[4]
Hope Now? The dream has slid down the slope of hope.
Cindy [10],
I’d buy a house now, if they offered gap insurance.
Cindy (13)-
The first thing I’d try to pull off- if I needed to buy now- would be offering on the best lis pendens/short sale/foreclosure/REO I could find…in the best neighborhood I could find (not one of those new construction, half-finished ghost towns).
Failing that, I’d likely rent…unless my horizon of expected occupancy is well-beyond 7-8 years. Then, I’d feel OK about buying, at the right price.
“The NAR reported that home prices in the region, which includes North Jersey, declined 10.8 percent in the second quarter from the same period a year ago, compared with a 7.6 percent drop nationwide.”
Rich[15],
Richard wanted a wake up call when RE prices, in NNJ, declined.
tard (16)-
“This is my personal message to that commie punk Pukin. If you touch even as much as one hair of Poland, I will personally come to the Kremlin and give you a beatdown. I’ve had enough.”
Putin could remove your spleen with his pinky finger. Pipe down.
(18) Thanks Clot – That is exactly what I wanted to know…
So someday – my children will get a paid-for house that has at least some value.
I feel fortunate to be in a lower-end price range and a decent neighborhood (not the best but my small town is fairing better than Fresno.) My thought is that being at an entry point price level means a larger range of buyers in the future. My children would never want to live here so they will need to sell it someday.
Trulia lists this house as sold for $251,000 on 6/20
The original ad shows a bank-owned home with an asking price of $399,000:
http://www.trulia.com/property/1042667401-117-Florence-Ave-Colonia-NJ-07067
Cindy (25)-
Bill Gross calls the entry-level homebuyer “plankton”. When the market does begin to recover, your price range will feel it first and get a nice pop.
(27)-
I’ve never met you, but you strike me as somebody who will live a very long time. You aren’t full of anger, resentment and neurosis, like the rest of us here.
Again Clot – @ 21 – Thank you – Again – Exactly what I wanted to know….
(26) Clot – “Bill Gross calls the entry-level homebuyer “plankton.” When the market does begin to recover, your price range will feel it first and get a nice pop.”
Awesome – See how you are – you get me one day with the pension stuff but today – good news!
(27) OH – I don’t plan on dying tomorrow, but it is so hard to save ( no raises/inflation) and I did want to leave my girls something someday.
I have absolutely no resentment. I am not one to look back. I make a decision – the best I can at the time – then just keep moving forward….
In Ghana they say “On, on we go..”
clot,
Who’re you calling angry, you #%&^@$, little ^%(@* snotnosed ^*&(_@.
Today’s “Heard on the Street” on a filing today by Wells Fargo:
Wells Fargo Stirs Doubts
Close Examination
Of Balance Sheet
Reveals Problems
By PETER EAVIS
August 15, 2008; Page C14
More chinks are appearing in Wells Fargo’s armor.
The San Francisco bank avoided large subprime slip-ups, which has persuaded investors to award it a premium valuation. Wells Fargo, the No. 3 bank by market capitalization, trades at just over two times its book value, double the multiple the market is placing on J.P. Morgan Chase, also relatively unscathed by the credit crunch.
Likewise, Wells Fargo’s stock is down just 10% over the past 12 months, a period that has blown up other banks’ balance sheets and sent the KBW Bank Index down 36%.
But it is time to rein in the optimism about Wells Fargo.
Second-quarter results, posted in mid-July, showed that Wells Fargo’s bottom line got a sizable boost from volatile trading income and a write-up of some mortgage-related assets. Investors shrugged, bidding Wells Fargo’s shares up nearly 50% since then.
But new financial disclosures, contained in a quarterly financial filing released Friday, bolsters the fear that Wells Fargo’s earnings aren’t all they are cracked up to be.
The first area of concern is illiquid assets, termed “level three” assets, that the bank values mostly using its own estimates and models. As markets have dried up, more assets are being classified as level three. The illiquidity often reflects reduced demand. This usually leads to banks taking big write-downs on those assets.
In the second quarter, Wells Fargo’s holdings of level-three mortgages increased substantially, but the bank’s write-down on those mortgages looked small. Level-three mortgages jumped $3.3 billion to $5.28 billion, but in the quarter Wells Fargo booked only a $43 million net loss on them.
Wells Fargo declined to give more detail. One reason for the seemingly small markdown may be that the mortgages are to prime borrowers and the bank may believe they will experience a low level of defaults. But past-due prime mortgages rose for many banks in the second period. While Wells Fargo doesn’t break out a prime-mortgage delinquency rate, its past-due residential mortgages were equivalent to 2.19% of the total in the second quarter, up from 1.91% in the first.
Also important: Wells Fargo’s second-quarter filing said that level-three assets included collateralized debt obligations, securities that have caused huge losses for several banks.
The bank didn’t give the size of its CDO holdings or any changes in their value. It didn’t even mention CDOs in its first-quarter level-three data. Other banks’ disclosures of CDOs regularly contain such information.
Wells Fargo didn’t say whether $860 million of CDOs cited in its 2007 annual report were the same ones referred to in the second-quarter filing.
Another reason to scrutinize the balance sheet is the sharp run-up in short-term debt at Wells Fargo in the second quarter. Short-term borrowings, which don’t include deposits, rose 60% to $86.1 billion. That allowed Wells Fargo to raise money cheaply in the quarter, but the bank could have problems if that funding source becomes less available.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121876509472143251.html?mod=hps_us_inside_today
grim, #31, in moderation
50.5,
Actually Saakashvili made a tactical mistake, sending in his troops to S. Ossetia. He thought allied support would bring troops to his aid. How would the US react if Cuba sent in troops to support the Cuban population? Saakashvili looks foolish while Putin was patient. Unfortunately, Putin’s/Medvedev status has been elevated within Russia.
Don’t like it, but those the facts, Jack.
with gold, oil and euro all down almost 2%, another blow to the majority opinion of this board.
[32],
If Cuba sent in troops, Florida.
bi [33],
Wrong again. Please update your blackbox.
Clot,
Seriously, I hope you are correct about the housing cycle–I am making a very big bet on Brigadoon not killing me in 15 years.
I have hedged somewhat by putting a huge amount down and only borrowing the conforming loan limit at a decent rate, which stretches us but I look at total cashflow and factor interest into the real cost for a home. Since our outbound cashflow over that period for interest will be much less than most folks (and since I don’t get much of a MID anyway), I project that my rent-vs-own projection favors owning, provided the NJ market holds together for another 15 or so years, and the state doesn’t jack taxes to pay for its bad bets on unions and corrupt pols.
how is the dollar rebounding?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26207930
(36) Nom – It seems to me you made an excellent decision…especially since you love the location…
another conspiracy theory:
Kremlin dusts off Cold War lexicon to make US villain in Georgia
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4535173.ece
njpatient Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 1:56 am
13 ket
In my view, technical analysis is 97% bullshyte, except to the extent that you can predict market moves that result from a group of louts doing the same technical analysis
njp: your exception is accurate, but can be valuable to explain price action for markets that disconnect from fundamentals…..I have a lot to say on the subject, but I can’t do justice to it in this forum with my limited typing skills….
Donald Trump is bailing out Ed McMahon
“In my view, technical analysis is 97% bullshyte”
Chi,
I disagree. It has made and saved my #ss many times.
Chi,
Very quickly;
Stochastics, moving avg’s, relative strength, oversold/overbought, seasonals, etc.. This my friend, is no bullshyte.
One other point. How could anybody follow the fundamentals of the IB’s? They don’t even know their exposure. In addition to that, they are the world’s greatest liars. That said, if one looked at the technicals, you would have seen red flags neons ago.
bi (34)-
Sure. Next stop for oil, $40.
bi, all this week has been is a chance for your margin clerk to take a break.
Nom,
With a 15-year time horizon and large DP as buffer, you should do fine. Brigadoon has always been a desirable location and should remain so. Sure, there are pockets of distress here, but overall the town has held up better than many.
You are stuck with property taxes though, big time. Hint: they won’t be trending down.
#8 darn,
There goes my chance to be a ventriloquist for that dummy Thain. The words I was going to stick in his mouth would, ahh, never mind.
Nom (37)-
Even with our slower population growth and household formation, 10 years is half a generation.
And, it takes about half a generation to:
1. Create a pool of buyers who have no experience in losing tons of money in RE.
2. Allow for a memory core-dump of those who have lost tons of money in RE.
(20) BC – “I’d buy a house now, if they offered gap insurance.”
No such animal, though – right?
A friend recently bought a new home and the builder bought her old place when it didn’t sell. How can they do that? Does the builder write it off as a loss?
bairen (47)-
Somebody should stick an apple in Thain’s mouth, then roast him on a spit.
Cindy (49)-
You could always hedge your house purchase by shorting housing via derivatives on the CME. :)
All disclaimers. I only recommend this if your idea of fun is dodging cars on the Parkway.
The interesting thing about placing missles in Poland is, it opens up the door again for Russia to place them in Cuba. “tit for tat”.
It will be interesting to see what the Russians do in Georgia. It could end up being another Iraq/Chechnya type debacle. Win the war suffer a long, painful and bloody “peace”.
(50) Oh Clotpoll…like you said ” I’ve never met you…” If you had you would know that READING about you folks shorting is the closest I will ever come to any such deal. I am sure I live vicariously through you folks… and that is fine with me. Some days the stress of READING about the economy is all I can handle.
21
Clotpoll
If your plan was to buy that way (mine is), how would you go about it? How would you find the right agent to help you do it? How would you weed out the wrong agents?
folks. this is big! hold your yellow stuff. something could happen as soon as this weekend:
MOSCOW – A top Russian general said Friday that Poland’s agreement to accept a U.S. missile interceptor base exposes the ex-communist nation to attack, possibly by nuclear weapons, the Interfax news agency reported.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080815/ap_on_re_eu/russia_us_missile_defense
“folks. this is big! hold your yellow stuff.”
bi,
Do you mean sell?
#55 bi: I promosed I would not get into this after the Georgia discussions earlier this week, so I will simply say what did we think would happen.
Whatever one thinks, we have to understand the Russians are back. They may never reach their old Soviet Union military power days, but they are back, and they are a force to be reckoned with, and to be respected and understood.
We are playing in their back yard, and r they have a problem with that.
Interesting read over at the NYT Freakonimics blog on the future of suburbia. Warning; long article.
hey guys– again my case for optimism. Prices down 10% year over year and credit conditions have deteriorated considerably in the past 6 months (real estate prices lag). I think it is a safe bet that prices will be down at least another 10% by this time next year, which would make more than 20%+ off peak prices, which most people thought was a laughable proposition when this board first got started.
From the aforementioned article;
Thomas Antus, a Freehold twp. admin –
“Government services such as police, fire, health, and public works will increase exponentially. To pay for the expanded services, taxes will also increase exponentially to the point where individual paychecks are made payable to the government and deposited directly in the general treasury. All individuals will have to use credit cards for all living expenses, going into massive debt and having to work until they are 90 years old, thus saving our Social Security system.”
Well, we’re not quite at this point yet.
“To pay for the expanded services, taxes will also increase exponentially to the point where individual paychecks are made payable to the government and deposited directly in the general treasury.”
and everyone will continue to work because?
#61 – and everyone will continue to work because?
I’d imagine they’d make it a criminal activity not to.
Or
They US becomes the place envisioned in Vonnegut’s Player Piano.
“Whatever one thinks, we have to understand the Russians are back. They may never reach their old Soviet Union military power days, but they are back, and they are a force to be reckoned with, and to be respected and understood.
We are playing in their back yard, and r they have a problem with that.”
No one did anything at all to the damn commies. They lost their back yard and Georgia can do whatver the hell it wants in its own damn county; same thing applies to Poland and any other of the former Warsaw pact nations.
The damn commies want to act like a hegemon and this world ain’t big enough for that. Like Rice said, this ain’t 1968.
That little commie runt Pukin really makes my blood boil. He really needs a good beatdown to show him that fat meat is greasy.
Not sure if this one was posted yet:
Bank Owned Home in Detroit sold for $1
With prices that low, I can see the flippers coming back to Detroit. Resell for $2 and you’ve made 100% profit!
#59 skeptic: The late Spring/Summer, in my area seemed to be the turning point, as far as sellers capitulating.
#63 Than that means they can play in our back yard. We cannot have it both ways.
“Resell for $2 and you’ve made 100% profit!”
Who says that you can generate $2 from that slum?
“which would make more than 20%+ off peak prices, which most people thought was a laughable proposition when this board first got started.”
skeptic,
I agree. I also laughed at 20% off. I always thought much worse. I would never have sold if I thought the decline would be limited to 20%.
WSJ – Real Estate with a NY Sports Twist…..
Mets’ Piazza Offers South Beach Condo
Mike Piazza may have retired from baseball this year, but he’s been busy in Florida real estate. The former New York Mets catcher has listed his condominium in Miami Beach’s South Beach neighborhood for $4.9 million, soon after buying an eight-bedroom house for $10 million in the same city. The three-bedroom condo, with terraces and panoramic views, is in the Murano at Portofino development on South Beach’s southernmost tip.
Mr. Piazza, 39, bought the 3,300-square-foot condo “raw” for $1.75 million when it was built in 2002 and designed it in a contemporary style with limestone floors. The building has a pool, tennis courts, a gym, a concierge and access to a private beach club.
The new house of the 12-time All-Star and his wife, Alicia, a former Playboy Playmate he married in 2005, is 9,600 square feet. The property has 100 feet on the water in the Sunset Islands neighborhood. The couple also own an apartment in New York. Jill Eber and Jill Hertzberg, of The Jills of Coldwell Banker, have the listing.
# Confused In NJ Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 9:30 am
The interesting thing about placing missles in Poland is, it opens up the door again for Russia to place them in Cuba. “tit for tat”.
I disagree. we are putting intercontinental ballistic missile interceptors in poland. These are purely defensive weapons. The Russians dont like it because (in theory anyway) we could stop them from successfully launching a Balistic missile.
The russian do not have such a system at this time, so any missiles they put in cuba would be offensive weapons. not really tit for tat.
In reality the “missile shield” we want to put in poland has been shown to be much less effective then the DOD touts. hitting 1 missile with another one at the speeds involved in this situation is a VERY hard thing to do. i think the DOD has had 50/50 success so far with their live fire tests.
Bi,
russia is not going to nuke polad. try again! conventional weapons would work just fine. besides if you really want shock and awe the russians have built thermobaric weapons (bombs specifically) that rival the power of a small nuke with none of the radiation or nuclear fallout. No treaty specifically bans these so if they really want to make a point, no nuke required.
the Russian bomb was said to use more highly efficient explosive, with a yield equivalent to 44 tons of TNT. The bomb was reported to have a blast radius of 300 meters, i.e very big!
there are video’s of thermobaric weapons on google.
Russia is building and has already tested ( and rumored to have used in Chechnya) these
A lot of these predictions lately. I agree (within the next few years, >40% drop from peak).
CNN Moneycentral:
“$65 oil is coming (maybe)”
A top analyst expects crude prices to start plummeting. If you don’t believe it, you’re not the only one, and a few stocks look good if you’re in the skeptics’ camp.”
Another story:
Forget $100 a Barrel – Oil Will Plummet to $30
Oil is headed back down to historical levels between $30-$50 a barrel. Consider the following evidence:
1. Oil consumers quickly adjust to high gasoline prices…
2. New transportation technology has arrived. GM recently announced its goal to have 1000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles on California highways by 2014. Honda expects to have 200 Hydrogen FCX Clarity’s within three years..
3. The next President of the United States will implement alternative energy on a grand scale like never before…
4. The last piece of evidence for a decline back to historic oil price levels is actually a secret that neither the green people nor the oil people want us to know about. The secret is that new oil is plentiful. Oil drilling rigs are booked until 2012. Recent finds include Brazil, the Gulf of Mexico and Africa.
To illustrate what’s happening – we’re invested in a small company called Freedom Oil and Gas which is preparing to drill in Southern Utah just north of the recent Wolverine discovery well which represents the largest U. S. onshore discovery in the past 30 years.”
(not to mentions to new Iraqi oilfields and US offshore etc)
Cool new foreclosure map:
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2008/8/15/saupload_foreclosureactivityjuly08.jpg
I think we will end up closer to 30% off when all is said and done, but I think the last bit is not going to come as quickly as the first 20% off (based on how the early 90s downturn played out). I look at it this way: it may have been best to buy in 1996-1997, but if you bought in 1993-1995, you weren’t making a bad decision. I’m thinking late 2009- early 2010 will be like 1993 in this cycle (see chart below)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/06/the_long_life_s.html
Grim,
Please release moderated comment
(72)-
Mike Piazza. Bagholder.
BC Bob Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 9:02 am
“In my view, technical analysis is 97% bullshyte”
Chi, I disagree. It has made and saved my #ss many times.
BC Bob Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 9:06 am
Chi, Very quickly; Stochastics, moving avg’s, relative strength, oversold/overbought, seasonals, etc.. This my friend, is no bullshyte.
BC Bob Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 9:12 am One other point. How could anybody follow the fundamentals of the IB’s? They don’t even know their exposure. In addition to that, they are the world’s greatest liars. That said, if one looked at the technicals, you would have seen red flags neons ago.
Bost: I am not entirely with njp. However, many of the markets you play in are technically traded as a rule, so I understand your point of view.
Most of my reservations come in the form of expected return as a function of volatility and probability. From my perspective, in liquid markets that are based on fundamental value, the use of technical analysis is -NPV. Ultimately that is my main consideration. The negative expected value results from loss of returns waiting for the market to signal the trader, and secondly the magnitude of volatility is understated in models (i.e. too much black swan-age).
There just isn’t enough space here to talk this through properly.
regarding last nights post on the down drop prediction.
I double checked with poster and she did indeed mean dow 1000 by 2010 (not inflation adjusted)
just putting us in perspective. in comparison we are all puppy dogs and rainbows!
Clotpoll Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 10:32 am
(72)- Mike Piazza. Bagholder.
Whose bag does he hold? Sam Champion’s?
“Whose bag does he hold? Sam Champion’s?”
Too funny Chi!
bairen Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 5:24 am
#30 chifi,
That show was unlistenable. It was the same show for 19 years. I actually like the morning show with Boomer, but Mike and the Mad Dog was the male version of The View.
bairen-it-all: What amazes me is that MATMD was unlistenable, but ESPN manages to be worse. ESPN tends to be all over the place and when they talk baseball, it seems to only be about the Yankees. That said, I think that the routinely best listen (not that I go out of my way) is Brandon Tierney. The funniest guy is bar none The Schmooze….
# 37 “Laughing all the Way Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 8:54 am
how is the dollar rebounding?”
The Euro can only be strong in a world where its energy supplies are safe and peace exists. With Russia controlling a good 40-odd percent of the natural gas flowing to the EU, and the EU sitting within easy bombing range of Russian planes, th EU’s great cutbacks in land forces, and its limited naval forces, the EU has little ability to protect itself from military attack or to protect the sea lanes bringing energy to Europe. On whom would they depend for all this? Who else, but us. We may be an economic basket case, and not immune to ICBMs, but 3,000 miles of ocean provides a good buffer to conventional attacks and our navy can protect the sea lanes to the U.S. When push comes to shove, the EU lacks the strength to support a strong Euro, in any but ideal conditions.
70 kettle: “In reality the “missile shield” we want to put in poland has been shown to be much less effective then the DOD touts. hitting 1 missile with another one at the speeds involved in this situation is a VERY hard thing to do. i think the DOD has had 50/50 success so far with their live fire tests.”
Recent 5 tests had 100% success rate and Russians are in full panic mode because of this. Thank god (and Reagan/GWB) we didn’t shut down this program as some US politicians ridiculed it and certain POTUS candidate wants to terminate it too.
Missile defense success: First intercept of warhead after separating from missile
“…marked the fifth successful intercept for the THAAD program in five attempts.”
“In the first such achievement, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, shot down a target warhead that separated from the booster missile.”
Stu Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 10:37 am
“Whose bag does he hold? Sam Champion’s?”
Too funny Chi!
Stu: the post yesterday about financial planning was for stuW6…..
[url=http://www.xanga.com/sumatriptan_imitrex]sumatriptan dosage[/url]
# 52 “It will be interesting to see what the Russians do in Georgia.”
I suspect this is all about the Caspian oil supply and Russia’s desire to be able to choke-off the West at will.
[45]
Yes, I know about the taxes, and that they are not going down, ever. I do enough muni bond finance work to know that.
Best I can do is to be like Obama, who apparently is anticipating higher taxes because he passed on some income deferrals this year in order to take income in the current year rather than the future, and he is heavily invested in muni bond funds. I plan to accelerate cap gains, hold cap losses until Obama raises my taxes, invest heavily in munis, and pray that Obama doesn’t close down the Roth Conversion option in 2010.
grim, 86 in mod. Used o word again. sorry
Jamil,
lets just disagree on the THADD program, in my opinion a number of those test were rigged for success. you may disagree and that is fine. we shall have our different points of view.
besides as i said above, russia doesnt need nukes to strong arm anyone. they have HUGE amounts of leverage over the western world due to our energy dependence on russia as well as russia ability to significantly influence energy markets. Why use a bazooka to remove someones heart when you have a surgical scalpal.
The only defense against this leverage is for the western world to move away from fossil fuels. such a move would be more effective then any bomber or missile as the western world would then control the energy markets.
# 63 “Like Rice said, this ain’t 1968. ”
Indeed, this is not 1968. In 1968, we expressed outrage when the Soviets invaded Czechoslovakia, roamed the country at will, and hurled bullets and tank rounds at will, while the West hurled invective and expressions of anger and disgust. This time it is 2008 and the invader is Russia — the rest, though, is the same.
Ket,
The solution to nearly every one of our problems (environmental, trade defecit, foreign relations, industrial competitiveness) is to move away from fossile fuels. I am just waiting for the nation’s “leaders” to have a Homer Simpson moment — “Doh!”
Guess what Pukin? Uncle Sam is not gonna take no bullying and bluster from you period. Get ready for a beatdown.
I’m thinking that I’d like to see you talk all this shlt face to face to Dubya. I’ve love to see you and Dubya in a boxing ring together with him giving you a beatdown. Commie punk.
GORI, Georgia – President Bush demanded that Russia get out of Georgia, saying the people there have cast their lot with the free world and “we will not cast them aside.” Speaking in Washington, he said that “bullying and intimidation are not acceptable ways to conduct foreign policy in the 21st century.”
The president said the Cold War is over and that a contentious relationship with the United States is not in Russia’s interests. Bush said “bullying and intimidation are not acceptable ways to conduct foreign policy in the 21st century.”
His comments came as a flurry of international diplomacy was set in motion to clear the way for a Russian withdrawal. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived Friday in Georgia for talks with President Mikhail Saakashvili.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26216434
Kettle,
What was the site where DOW 1000 predicition was made?
“I’ve love to see you and Dubya in a boxing ring together”
50,5,
I’d love to see you in a boxing ring with Tonya Harding.
http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://cache.boston.com/bonzai-fba/Globe_Photo/2005/01/27/1106845967_9907.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.boston.com/news/globe/gallery/012105%3Fpg%3D11&h=360&w=500&sz=26&tbnid=kDXcbpT89uAJ::&tbnh=94&tbnw=130&prev=/images%3Fq%3DTonya%2BHarding&hl=en&sa=X&oi=image_result&resnum=3&ct=image&cd=1
“I’ve love to see you and Dubya in a boxing ring together”
50,5,
I’d love to see you in a boxing ring with Tonya Harding.
87: kettle.
I agree that Russians do not really need to use nukes. It is enough that they have it (as we can never intervene once Russians have started the invasion of yet another country).
Anyway, the West would have also many options to pressure Russia:
– kick Russia out of G8 and NATO councils
– deny entry to WTO
– take Ukraine to NATO
– protect Georgian oil and gas pipelines militarily
– Euro-wimps can terminate the new undersea oil pipeline to Germany and nationalize Russian energy assets in Europe (this is what Russia did to European energy assets in Russia).
The Euro can only be strong in a world where its energy supplies are safe and peace exists. With Russia controlling a good 40-odd percent of the natural gas flowing to the EU, and the EU sitting within easy bombing range of Russian planes, th EU’s great cutbacks in land forces, and its limited naval forces, the EU has little ability to protect itself from military attack or to protect the sea lanes bringing energy to Europe. On whom would they depend for all this? Who else, but us. We may be an economic basket case, and not immune to ICBMs, but 3,000 miles of ocean provides a good buffer to conventional attacks and our navy can protect the sea lanes to the U.S. When push comes to shove, the EU lacks the strength to support a strong Euro, in any but ideal conditions.
The Russian military is also a shadow of it’s former self. Much of their navy is literally rusting away and abandoned.
http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/node/3004
I am very sorry for the people suffering in Georgia, but I must admit that I am not displeased to see the euros quiver a bit in the face of an aggressive Russia. I imagine that europeans must now be thinking that their recent hostility to the U.S. was a bit short-sighted
I’m thinking that I’d like to see you talk all this shlt face to face to Dubya. I’ve love to see you and Dubya in a boxing ring together with him giving you a beatdown.
The K GB Commando vs the Yale preppie, not exactly Ali/ Frazer, but I’d still watch it.
Will it be Pay per view?
TA vs. fundamental analysis:
I also think TA is mostly BS. At best, I use it when timing a buy to get a slightly better limit price, but I felt that the amount of time I wasted studying dojos and cups and handles were not nearly as valuable as time spent digging into annual reports and learning how to accurately read the financial statements. Where most people fail with utilizing fundamental analysis is ignoring the daily, monthly and often yearly ups and downs. Most investors take too short of a term view of their equity positions. Early on, I sold way too many positions based on TA that would have yielded astronomical results if I stuck with following what the fundamentals were saying more heavily. For example, I bought CAL at 4 and sold at 10. Went to 50 two years later is just one example.
I try to use long-term macroeconomic trends to find affective investment vehicles. My propensity to short commercial real estate and to invest in natural gas drillers are examples of my strategies. I’m not sure how TA could help me with analyzing either of these. Additionally, the use of TA results in a lot of short term gains which in a taxable account, end up being subject to taxes at one’s yearly income tax rate. Long term gains are taxed at 15%, which is well below where my income tax rate falls. Fighting this 5-10% hit is quite a battle to say the least.
I do use software which allows me to compare apples to apples and to ensure my purchase price is at the best value within a ten year historical window. This software allows one to get down to watching trends at the granular level. For example, tracking pre-tax profit as a percentage of sales, tax rates, return on equity, etc. Essentially you judge management, fundamentals of the company and then see if the price is right. In many cases, the first two pass, but the price is too high. I just have witnessed too many people putting too much weight on stock price movement/momentum trading while ignoring fundamental trends.
I am also a member of two investment clubs (general partnerships), where we group think our buy and sell decisions and hone our skills with the fundamental analysis software applications. We also split the cost of our purchasing/selling commissions making it much more cost effective to add to current positions (dollar cost averaging) regularly.
Needless to say, I have been able to beat the markets pretty consistently for the past decade. Nothing stellar (like my decision to sell out within a quarter of the top of the tech bubble, or my decision last August to move my entire 401k into bonds), but better than all US and most international indexes.
I guess if TA works for you? Then so be it. Every article I’ve ever read on gorilla trades or similar trading programs show losses long term. A lot of my friends got hammered in 2001 and 2002 following TA. Those who invested fundamentally came out unscathed.
# 90 “Guess what Pukin? Uncle Sam is not gonna take no bullying and bluster from you period. Get ready for a beatdown.”
Re, I admire your spunk. As much as I wish you were correct, we are in no position to do anything to protect Georgia, Ukrain, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, etc, etc, etc. Except where we are willing to incur the wrath of Russia cutting off oil, and willing to commit convential forces to combat (and be willing to rattle the nuclear sabre) we are not in a position to stop Russian imperial asperations. This may be another 1920s.
97 in mod Grim(long post debating TA vs. Fundamental analysis)
kettle:
Olympic boycott against the Russians is another option. They are held in Sochi in 2014.
Sochi is 20 miles from Georgian border.
It would an outrage to have Olympics there, near the occupied and ravaged Georgia.
# 94 “The Russian military is also a shadow of it’s former self. Much of their navy is literally rusting away and abandoned.”
True enough, BUT Russia does not need a navy to exert pressure on the “near abroad” nations, or to cause problems for Europe.
as I recall, W. once challenged H.W. to a fight “mano a mano.” A similar Putin challenge would be awesome
# 93 “take Ukraine to NATO”
Since an attack on any NATO country is taken as an attack on the U.S., I dont imagine our overstretched friends in the Pentagon will be begging to have Ukrain asked to crowd under the nuclear umbrella anytime soon. The Georgians (and perhaps the Ukranians) may soon feel like the Hmong did when we bugged-out of Laos.
skep,
Bush would have a better chance engaging in aq contest like the one in Raiders of the Lost Ark, where it comes down to drinking shots.
102: Attacking NATO country is one thing even Putin is not willing to do (at least if we have somebody like Mac in POTUS).
We don’t need to have tank divisions there. US air force and letting Ukraine to buy better weapons system is enough.
This is just like in 1930’s. Capitulation didn’t work too well then.
I was living in Los Angeles during some of those missile shield tests back in 2000.
Witnessed one firing in the evening from a buddies vacation home in Baja between Rosarita and Ensonada. Well this area had no electricity so there was almost no artificial lighting to pollute the view. The vapor/smoke trail that was left by the missile was surreal. As the sun set, the trail was so high in the atmosphere that the sun continued to reflect on it, long after the surroundings had faded into dusk. Even two hours after sunset, parts of the trail had finally dissipated leaving what reminded me a lot of one of those early Hubble photographs of a nebula. Add to the scene the luminescent tide and the pelicans flying by in formation and the entire experience was unforgettable. From my viewpoint, this test was a failure, but the Negra Modelo and the fish tacos were the best ever.
#97 Shoreguy: Bush had his chance, he looked in to Putin’s eyes and saw hi soul, remember that famous line.
I am not defending Russia here, but merely pointing out the reality on the ground.
Condi speaks Russian, is supposedly a Soviet/Russian expert, where has she been these last 7 years?
South Ossetia and Abhazia is lost to the Georgians, it is as simpel as that. The inhabitnats there will never agree to be a part of the state of Georgia, and in the end it will be better for Georgia, they loose 2 hostile ethnic groups.
Azberjain and the variou stan countries in that region, I believe Russia has no interest in annexing them, but of coure will want to exert influence over them.
Ukraine is a different story. Fully 1/3 of the population of the country (eastern Ukraine, is ethnic Russian), they are a discontented group, with no loyalty to a Ukrainian state.
Many in Russia itself refuse to recogonize the Ukrainians as a seperate ethnic group, and believe that Russia and Ukraine should be reunited.
Last year Russia’s foreign minister said Ukraine could never join NATO, as they (Russia) do not recognize a nation called Ukraine.
As a retired American general said last night on CNN, why is the U.S. pushing for Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO, why does a country like Georgia with a population of 4 million need a billion dollar a year defense budget, with much of that furnished by the U.S.
The U.S. keeps assuring Russia they have nothing to fear from us and the west, and yet our actions in that part of the world convey in the eyes of the Russians something quite different.
in my fraternity days, arguments were settled by means of the “Thunderdome” (drinking until one person boots– the booter being the loser of the dispute). A Bush/Putin Thunderdome would be epic.
Guess what Pukin, you little commie runt? I think you just walked into a trap that has been set for you. We know that you have a secret alliance with that Iranian pantywaist, Mahmood Iamazzhole. We know we need to take him out but you stand to interfere by sending them defensive weapons and undermining our attempts at the damn UN.
We’re gonna use a rope a dope strategy against you, you commie dirtbag. We’re going to tie your azz up in your own backyard and drain you so we can do what we need to do. Commie punk. I can’t stand you.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article20508.htm
Bush can’t drink anymore. Acording to Wikipedia, when he does, he sees Jesus!
Skeptic 95,
This is not meant as euro eurobashing, but the europeans want an economic empire without the associated military costs. they have pulled that off for over a decade now. but it looks like the game is up. Either the EU raises a real military (not sure how they pay for that without destabilizing the euro). Or make nice with the US and bail us out so we can rebuild our military presence on the continent.
But dont loose sight of the big picture. this is not/ will not be cold war part II. The dynamics involved are fairly different even if the the initial picture looks the same.
What’s getting lost in some of this talk about Russia’s sabre-rattling, I think, is that maybe they’re freaking out over the possibility of their commodities continuing to decline in price. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they’re being more bellicose as prices slide. So therefore, they’re trying their best to tighten grips on supply any way they can.
The long term problem with this strategy is that Russia needs resource buyers to continue to fuel its re-emergence. They can try to control the market through the spigot and the gun, but a worldwide recession, decreased demand, and increased conservation efforts by the industrialized nations can go a long way in putting a dent in their dreams of Mother Russia’s glorious return to power.
The country is one big oil and gas company – but unlike our companies, this one has guns, tanks, missles, and a nasty attitude. After a meteoric run-up in prices, you kind of get the feeling they’re livid that prices are slumping. They’re not nice guys by nature anyway, and they seem to get less friendly every day that the markets are not so kind to them.
106 3b,
why does a country like Georgia with a population of 4 million need a billion dollar a year defense budget, with much of that furnished by the U.S.
to act as a buffer state between russia and euro/us energy routes
#110
“This is not meant as euro eurobashing, but the europeans want an economic empire without the associated military costs.”
Bash away– I agree completely. I look at Europe as a giant theme park.
Can someone answer a stupid question: since RE agents live off commissions, and the 10% difference in the sale price translates into a sliver of their fee, wouldn’t it be in their interest to jump start the VOLUME of sales by pressuring sellers to reduce prices? Why aren’t we seeing a massive campaign by NAR to “open sellers’ eyes” to the actual poor state of the market — instead of their laughable and hypocritical attempts to talk it up?
93 – Jamil,
I was in the Ukraine a month ago, and to a man, everyone I spoke to (ranging from CFOs in Kiev, to farmers outside of Odessa), said they want closer ties with Russia, even to the point of mereging back with Russia and becoming an Autonomus region.
Anyone know the cost for RealtyTrac.com once the free trial expires?
Since when is the WSJ $2?
#110 kettle: I agree. But all the rhetoric we have been hearing form Bush, is just that rehetoric, and simplistic sound bites, and demonizing of the Russians.
Instead of demonizing the Russians, we need frank dialogue and discussions with them.
Again I am not defending Russia, but lets look at what has happened in the past. The U.S. bombed Serbia (and rightfully so), back in the Clinton era, when the Europeans refused to do anything. However, the Russians at the time were powerless to help Serbia, a traditioanl ally and historically close friend of Russia.
Kosovo was internationally recognozed as being within the legitimate borders and part of Serbia, and yet the U.N. and the west recognize their independence against the wishes of the Serbs.
Personally I believe it is best for Serbia as they loose responsibility for a hostile ethnic group that does not wish to be a part of Serbia.
However in the eyes of the Serbs and Russians, how come it was fine for Kosovo which was internationally recognised as part of Serbia to declare independence, yet it is not OK for the South Ossetians and Abhazia to declare independence from Georgia.
Why is it that the only the U.S and the west get to choose who can be independent or not.
One other note, Bush is talking about Georgia and it’s democracy,and democracy minded President.
And yet this is the same Georgian President who last year had his police and para-military forces fire on unarmed demonstrators against his government.
These same forces also burned to the ground an opposition party’s televison station.
So much for democracy.
#112 kettle: Of course. And so the next question would be, how did we think the Russians would respond?
#117 chgo: The NYT’s is going to 1.50 next week I believe.
#117
“Since when is the WSJ $2?”
since this past spring
“The NYT’s is going to 1.50 next week I believe.”
Almost makes you want to read the Post. No?
#122 All that entertianment, and sports too for .25. You cannot go wrong!!
3b,
i have 2 main guesses as to georgia:
1. saakishvilli took things a bit further then the puppet masters expected him to or wanted him to and got them into an unwanted mess.
2. The puppet master knew what was going to go down and are fine with this, as it is an excuse for putting western troops directly on the ground ( peace keepers/ humanitarian aide, etc…). It can also be used as propaganda to justify further western activities in the region i.e. the missile shield in poland.
I actually lean towards #2. If this high stakes chess game is played correctly it could allow the current power mongers to take steps they couldnt before.
Georgia is just an acceptable casualty
screw the WSJ print ,,, you can get it online
for 99 per year.
i had recevied the WSJ for many years ,, right out of college..
i cancelled the print,,, to expensive
and IBD may be better
#115 njlifer: Jamil will deny that.
But tough to read the online version when on the can at work.
#124 kettle: I agree with #2, and it is dangerous game we are playing, and we are in no condition to play it.
Mark R. #114
I asked the exact same question here last year. The conventional wisdoms seem to be–many of the realtors drank their own cool-aid.
max Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
screw the WSJ print ,,, you can get it online
for 99 per year.
i had recevied the WSJ for many years ,, right out of college..
i cancelled the print,,, to expensive
pesche: You can get print and online for $119 a year. I must be a fogey, because I need the print layout in order to WANDER and trip across article that I just consistently miss when I peruse online only…..
#130 duckweed: No realtor wants to be the first, especially if they live in the town where they sell many of their listings.
129 3b,
silly goose, that is what conscription is for!
When the US goes into a depression, conscription will look like a very appealing option to many as it guarantees food and shelter, albeit at a potentially high price!
And dont forget, the USA does have a manufacturing base, and a substantial one at that; Arms manufacturing! The US is the largest arms dealer in the world.
pieces falling into place? new american century?
there’s no blow to gold. Just a great buying opportunity. Unfortunately, no one has any to sell. Go to apmex’s website. They are out of almost all their gold, silver, and platinum
oh yeah, I forgot, the US Mint announced yesterday that they have halted the sales of Gold Eagle Bullion coins. They know at these prices, we’d clean em out in a day.
, , , , ,
, , .
Ben [135],
Back to an earlier discussion, the fundamentals are bullish, the techniclas abysmal. I am now flat futures[Dec], have a buy stop above $800. I am buying the physical this weekend.
All Disclaimers.
#115 njlifer: “Jamil will deny that.”
This reminds me of the famous “How could X win, everybody I know voted for Y” line from some clueless lib decades ago.
Yes, I deny the reports that 100% of the people in Ukraine want to join Russia. I prefer elections to small-scale polls conducted by some anonymous poster in NJ RE site.
, . …
Contest of the striptease- Miss Runet 2008- http://mp3hitpopular.com/strip.html
12 best beside pole
I’ve never planned on selling an oz. of gold or silver for at least 3-4 years. A price drop like this is a dream come true for me.
Ben [141],
Do you own futures or the physical?
[121] 3b
Ah, the NYT–Insulting our intelligence for over a century.
3b 120:
“The NYT’s is going to 1.50 next week I believe.”
100% overvalued. Lib indoctrination and suppression of news is available for free.
Try National Enquirer, you actually get some investigate reporting.
Hey guys, I just drove past a house in Wyckoff that looked nice from the pics. I never knew that Wyckoff had a “run down” section of town. Amazing…
I own physical. I’m just a poor graduate student though. I have about 3k in metals. About 9k more in other bets like agriculture, petroleum, and base metal mining.
…and a co-worker was telling me of astonishing behavior of teenagers in a blue ribbon school town (attacking an older woman)
I guess these things can happen in any town, regardless of it’s “prestige”
parenting > schools and prestigious towns
#138 jamil: Wher did anybody say 100%?
#138 jamil: Oh and this discussion has nothing to do with Lib vs Cons.
Ben,
The problem with futures; it has been one big trade. As the hedgies turn and probably flip, the moves are huge. You either better be hedged or spread [intra commodity]. Otherwise, it’s a freight train. At this time, I’m using $800, Dec, as my line in the sand for any futures activity. In the meantime, I’m going to buy the physical and add on future dips.
All Disclaimers.
#143 jamil: I read the NYT’s I read the WSJ, I take thme both for what they are worth, and I am indoctrinated by no publication, or person.
Chi,
The WSJ Online increased its price substantially.
I just renewed in July – $159, for online only.
Murdoch said he was going to make online a freebie. Guess he changed his mind when he saw the importance of that revenue stream.
#144 tbw: is it in the president’s section, meaning where all the street’s are named after president’s?
If so that has always been cosnidered th less desireable section of Wyckoff, kind of like River Edge, east of KKR.
#146 tbw: Surely you are nto just figuring that out?, And surely you know by now that Blue Ribbon is a farce?
#152 – correction
Just checked my bill – $149, not $159, for the WSJ Online.
#152: yup, president named street.
I know..about the blue ribbon farce, I wish others would catch on though.
And, now, to get away from the Russkies and back to real estate …
This “pre-foreclosure” ad from Craigslist …under “pricing,” it says that there is no asking price, just an appraisal price …
They tout a monthly payment based on 20% down …and a 40 year mortgage at 5% (???)
http://cnj.craigslist.org/reo/797956655.html
#155 tbw; It has been my experience over the years that those who scream the most about Blue Ribbon,and wonderful school districts, and budgets must be passed at all costs ironically their children’s endeavors are not necessarily reflective of that.
Wall Street’s Jobless Try Cupcakes, Cheap Haircuts, Maybe Omaha
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a6h1pur72rok&refer=home
And on a similar note,
London Clubs Rebuff `Braying’ Bankers, Favor Style Over Wealth
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ah.H2xr8CZ.4&refer=home
russians and commies are liars. while they said they would cease fire, but:
Russian convoy moves deeper inside Georgia: witness
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSLF7284720080815?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&rpc=22&sp=true
“Half the people working in debt sales, trading or research in New York at the beginning of 2007 will have been fired by the end of this year or won’t get a bonus, Maloney estimated.”
Hobokenite [159],
UGH.
“russians and commies are liars.”
bi,
Do you think they work at the IB’s?
In Edison, median family income is ~$75,000. If mortgage companies go back to old-school lending practices, and one is limited to a mortgage at about 3x annual income, shouldn’t the median home price be somewhere around $275,000 (assuming 20% down payment)?
[PS: How does one get italics in posts?]
Re: #1 Grim …In the Edison MSA, which includes Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean and Somerset counties, the median home price fell 3.1 percent to $373,000.
BC,
Almost sounds like where I work. At least the fired/bonus part.
#158 This of course will do wonders for NYC mero area real estate.
Where the heck is pret when he is needed?
CB,
italics, bold, etc are done with HTML text formatting, see here
http://tinyurl.com/58q6x9
i love the idiots that call for a bottom in 1H 2009. are they crazy, that’s not that far off, credit conditions are going to persist for years, crap like this doesn’t work it’s way through the system for years.
it’s like a snake eating a tiger, it’s going to take him years to turn that into guano or whatever you call snake poo. we’re not going to have snake poo for years out of this one. meanwhile, upper-middle class couples like myself and my wife will be disgusted by the MEAGER POS capes and ranches that our substantial savings and buying power affords us.
It really is insane… we know we are in the 70 percentile for earnings, yet the housing accomodations we can afford… you would expect Chester Cheeto and his wife to be living in with the dually parked up right on the front lawn.
gallup election poll: 44% v.s. 44%. it seems people start to figure out mr.o is not ready for prime time.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx
njrereport poster intelligence poll: Grim 100% vs. bi 0%
(64) “Bank Owned Home in Detroit sold for $1
With prices that low, I can see the flippers coming back to Detroit. Resell for $2 and you’ve made 100% profit!”
might not be the bargain it appears. if just ONE crackhead slips and falls on your sidewalk you could be on the hook for millions!!
Blue-ribbon itself is not a useful indicator. Combine that with the NJ Monthly ratings, Newsweek ratings, WSJ ratings, and also the sheer number of kids in the high school — fewer the better. Also, consider the proximity to “bad” towns, and the “faster paced” towns. The more remote and slower the pace combined with the higher ratings above == the best schools.
NYPOST –
#122 All that entertianment, and sports too for .25. You cannot go wrong!!
And when you are done, you can use it as toilet paper, because its often found in the office bathroom.
Also, how your kid turns out is perhaps 50% DNA, 40% parenting, and 10% schools, but you sure as hell want the best 10% schooling you can afford.
138 – Jamil,
I prefer my real life experience, than your idiotic statement that we should incorporate Ukraine into NATO, when the Ukraininans themsleves don’t want to be incorporated!?! By the way, 30 percent of the Ukraine’s population is Russian. Dumb a$$.
interesting note i just found
Olympic venues you can get a bud for 73 cents. Stadiums cost billions and they can sell a beer for 73 cents.
Mets and yanks likely will be charging 10.00 or more come next season.
big news: “obsama nation” passed “the last lecture” and “twilight” became the number 1 best seller in all category.
where is “audacity of hope”? i could not find it in top 100.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/books/ref=sv_b_3
Speaking of the Times and other MSLM (is the “L” redundant?), has anyone noticed how obsessed Olbermann has become with O’Reilly? Those two either ought to get a cage match or a room.
I have described Olbermann as the O’Reilly of the Left, and when I watch them (which, admittedly, is not frequent) they almost seem to be morphing into one another. And I see this all without the benefit of drugs!
MJ:
More than anything, consider the parenting skills you possess. One of the best schools in the country is in Jersey City where the graduation rate of the overall school system is around 40%. Sometimes, a good kid in a bad school has much better opportunities than a bad kid in a good school.
IMO, the high school ratings are way overrated anyhow. The difference between the 20th best and the 80th best in NJ will probably not have that great of an impact on little Joey’s outcome in life.
The Perhaps in that statement means what? These numbers are pulled directly from your ass?
# MJ Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
Also, how your kid turns out is perhaps 50% DNA, 40% parenting, and 10% schools, but you sure as hell want the best 10% schooling you can afford.
Best schools – The reason my parents moved to NJ from NYC was to keep me away from the rifraff. I’d like to think I would have done alright either way, but it’s better to stack the odds in your kids favor.
Better to not have to worry about finding a butterfly knife in Johnny’s backpack because he feels the need to protect himself. That’s some of the problems faced in some of the city schools.
How is McCane’s book doing bi?
“Worth the Fighting For : The Education of an American Maverick, and the Heroes Who Inspired Him”
Is it even in the top 1,000 or more likely it is in the bargain bin at the Borders vestibule.
Olbermann is much worse than O’Reilly. At least O’Reilly always debates with people who have different opinions. Olbermann is good for putin’s spokesman. one guy who has been on his show for 3 years but got fired recently since he slightly criticized mr.o
#161 BC Bob,
Fortunately NJ, especially hoboken, is “special” and is immune to all economic changes. Like being on a mountaintop when the tsunami hits. You may see the lower rungs swept away, yet remain high and dry yourself.
/off sarcasm
#chifi
I’ve become so disillusioned with radio that I now only listen to cds of chinese lessons.
I’ve also just about quit watching all network TV. Same stuff over and over again.
182 NJLifer “when the Ukraininans themsleves don’t want to be incorporated!?! By the way, 30 percent of the Ukraine’s population is Russian. Dumb a$$.”
I’m well aware that Ukraine has significant Russian minority, and I didn’t say that we need to force Ukraine to side with us. Ukraine had free elections and they chose pro-US government and if they are willing to join NATO, I think NATO should accept them. I’ll leave aside your juvenile name calling and personal polls in Ukraine.
KGB has murdered (or tried to murder) several key figures in Ukraine and I’m afraid they are going to continue it.
185#, by the way, i strongly suggest mr. Olbermann invite stu, 3b and njp to his show as regular guests.
#184 – If all we’re using is someone’s position on the best seller list as a qual. then I’m nominating Meg Frost as she sold out in just a few days.
#171 CB in SJ,
That’s why most regulars here think we’re looking at a 30 to 50% drop from the peak. I’d settle for 30% if it’s a house I want to live in for at least 7 years. I’m not looking for the bottom, just a price I can afford and leaves us some room for margins of error, like major repairs, layoffs, etc without having to
Stu,
The “#1” school in NJ, McNair, is a farce — they fake the #1 rating by taking all the smart kids from the 5 other schools in Jersey City.
The real #1 public school in NJ is Basking Ridge, or perhaps Princeton if you go by % accepted to Ivy League schools.
I am a top 10 graduate of a top 20 public high school in NJ. I know the real and true advantages I had available to me. I know I would not have done as well in the much worse schools my cousins went to — schools that were still in the top 100 of 316.
A smart kid given every advantage always has a better chance than the same kid given fewer advantages. That is reality. Get your kid in the best school you can, and continue to do your best for the kid in every other way as well. I owe my kid that, I figure.
unmod
bairen Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
#chifi I’ve become so disillusioned with radio that I now only listen to cds of chinese lessons.
I’ve also just about quit watching all network TV. Same stuff over and over again.
bairen-it-all: Bloomberg is good stuff.
I only watch infomercials!
Essex, yes, that is what my “perhaps” meant. But no one knows any more accurately. That is my guess based on my experiences and observations. If you can find some good science that proves it wrong, tell me. If you have your own guess that differs, go with it.
189#, stu, i am challenging all libs if they can write a book on mr. m’s background and become a top 10 in amazon by november.
@188 Hard Place:
Your parents did the right thing, IMO. You’re right about the butterfly knife, and that’s why I think the real better schools are those that not only test well but are located geographically further away from the faster paced areas and from the schools that don’t test well.
bairen,
TV??? whats that? is that a video on youtube? if its not on the web or downloadable, you wont be watching it in the kettle household. I suppose we could put an aerial up, but the TV is for the occasional DVD and thats about it. we use the same TV we have from the college years.
MJ:
If the doom and gloom many predict here comes true, perhaps that butterfly knife wielding Lincoln high school graduate might be better prepared for the future than the Princeton high schooler with the Ivy league credentials?
[188] Hard,
Here are my suggestions for helping the little ones cope with today’s school bullying:
First, slap the offending parents and the offender with a lawsuit and restraining order. Try to get a lis pendens or attachment on the house. Also, be sure to have parents served at work.
Second, offer to arrange a cage match betwixt my child and the aggressor, and if weapons of any sort were threatened before, ask the other parent if they can be used. Imply that you enrolled little one in intensive training with nunchucks, nightstick, broken bottle end, etc. taught by former Navy SEAL.
Third, offer to arrange the cage match between yourself and offending dad, and then ask him to choose weapons. Suggest hatchets and offer to let him use one of yours.
Fourth, invite your unstable buddy from college into town. Ply him with drink and tale of woe. Be sure to have a good alibi—such as being at a judge’s dinner—when offender’s house gets shot up. Then, posing as offender dad, call a bunch of realtors and tell them you want to sell so please come by this weekend.
Fifth: If Paulie Walnuts (or any gutsy friends who want to act like him) owes you a favor, Butchie can disappear into the back of a town car, and is found the next day, bound, gagged, but quite unhurt, somewhere near the landfill in SI, with a tale about how he messed with a made man’s family member, and this is a friendly warning to play nice or he just might sleep with the soda bottles.
Sixth: Have Butchie’s car towed to a junkyard, crushed, and delivered back to his house in the shape of a cube.
All of the above should suggest to offender and parents that Timmy’s dad is serious and probably a bit nuts, so it would be best if Butchie laid off.
#202 bi,
Can we use crayons or finger paint?
“189#, stu, i am challenging all libs if they can write a book on mr. m’s background and become a top 10 in amazon by november.”
I’ve got the title already bi…
‘I cheating on my crippled wife. See, I’m a maverick!’
193 Jamil,
And the CIA has never murdered or orchestrated government overthrows? C’mon. Power hungry politicians and the governments they lead are the same no matter where you go. Trust me, I was a fervent Republican in my youth and now I detest all politicians, extreme liberals and extreme conservatives alike.
Apologies for the insult by the way. Sometimes I feel like I’m texting my friends and get a little carried away.
Should have read:
‘I cheated on my crippled wife. See, I’m a maverick!’
#208 Stu,
LMAO,
I wonder if he’ll spew the famil values stuff.
It’s Friday. Oil is down another $3 and there really wasn’t much in the way of negative news today. Yet the market looks like it’s going to close flat to down.
Anyone else here expect to hear about another insolvent bank or two after the close?
#190 bi
O’Reilly is just a hypocritical bully. Especially the times he sends out the hijack reporters to ambush the subjects. When they don’t want to talk he takes the “Ah they don’t want to talk so it must be true”
I saw a great piece where the guest turned to him and said. “Cut the Cr#p, I’ve known you for 20years and the intimidation stuff won’t work. You can’t bully me. If you want to discuss this fair enough, if not wake me up when your done as this is getting tiring.”
At that point O’Reilly went on the defensive. Oh we are such good friends, I always enjoy our spirited discussions.
stu,
because oil is going to $65.
If you’re frustrated over the high cost of gasoline at the pump, don’t trade in your Hummer for a Vespa just yet: A leading energy analyst is telling clients these days to prepare for crude oil to retreat back below $65 per barrel over the next three years.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/CouldOilPlungeTo65ABarrel.aspx
I strongly disagree with their technical reasoning. but Bi and jamil should enjoy this.
Richard Thaler on nudging America
Libertarian paternalism
“The Obama campaign adopted a whole host of ideas. ..I know Obama and was able to corrupt him at least a little bit”
http://audiovideo.economist.com/?fr_story=e0253c0c660c7d35018d892ec1937d35755f0dfe
grim unmod
209 NJLifer: “And the CIA has never murdered or orchestrated government overthrows? C’mon”
There is no moral equivalence between CIA’s actions and KGB’s, anymore than there was moral equivalence between the violence by nazis against the jews and vice versa (think Warsaw ghetto uprising).
KGB (just like, say, Al-Qaida and Islamic theocracies) is killing peaceful journalists and democratically elected leaders who are not carrying out genocides or crimes against humanity.
Murdering Ukraine’s president in order to occupy Ukraine and terminate democracy and freedom is evil and it cannot be compared to CIA’s actions (even in the past, when it was fighting communism and fascism – the most brutal and barbaric systems ever invented on earth).
214 kettle: I mentioned that same article in #75.
The other article in #75 is also interesting.
#216 jamil: And th CIA over throw the democratically elected governmnet of Iran in the 50’s, reinstalled the despised Shah,a nd the rest is history.
My only point, is we have made som bad mistakes too, and we are nto without sin.
It is childish and simplistic to insist that everything the U.S. has done over the years has been out of the goodness and generosity of our hearts. It is also unpatriotic.
It’s a shame that the O camp does not play as dirty as the M camp…
Robert Timberg about John and Carol’s marriage: “If there was one couple that deserved to make it, it was John and Carol McCane They endured nearly six years of unspeakable trauma with courage and grace. In the end it was not enough. They won the war but lost the peace … “The conventional view is that John came home not to the Long Tall Sally of his overheated prison imagings but to a real woman — older, shorter, crippled — and before long began to stray. No doubt it was more complicated.”
Did you know that Sen. Gary Hart was an usher at his 2nd wedding? Talk about guilt by association!
either presidential candidate will most likely be a 1 term president.
3194 bi: Please do not associate me with Mr. Oberman, I find him overly self-righteous, and arrogant.
I despise the radical left, as much as I despise the radical right.
The label I wear is neither Liberal or Conservative, bur rather and American who deeply loves his country, but feels we are on the wrong road, and have been for quite some time, and while on that road our problems continuie to multiply.
I do not subscibe to my country right or wrong, as it is unpartiotic.
Sorry bi, you cannot pigeon hole me into your so called Liberal vs so called Conservative pigeon holes.
While I do not think what McCain did to his first wife was honorable, I hesistate to hold him to too high of a standard given what he had been through as a POW immediately prior. If you assume that he was barely holding himself together psychologically at that point, it would have been very impressive for him to have been able to act as an emotional crutch for someone else upon his return. Point is I do not think it is analogous to the Edwards scenario– it was definitely a moral failing, but somewhat excuseable
Bi,
Here you go. O’Reillys reporters in action.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_2IZT4VgDY&NR=1
#180 Every day!! reinvestor would be proud of me. I have graduated from corn cobs to the NY Post for toliet tissue!!
219#, stu, if both of them go to that road, i think mr. o will lose. except for that well publicized story, which few know the details, mr. m has few to be attacked. but mr.o can be easily painted as Jeremiah Wright’s best student and even former iraq prsident’s cousin
218: About CIA and Iran. It was very complicated situation, and Britain was the main driver. Anyway, it was preceded by assassinations by islamists, communist meddling and nationalizing (stealing) BP’s oil assets in Iran.
“It is childish and simplistic to insist that everything the U.S. has done over the years has been out of the goodness and generosity of our hearts.”
If the enemy is barbaric, criminal system (like fascism, communism, ultra-islamist) inherently a crime against humanity, sometimes dirty work is needed. Still, there is no moral equivalence between the sides. (Similarly, Hamas is shelling missiles to Israel trying to kill civilians, while Israel tries to kill the terrorists who are doing it. In both cases, civilians may die, but anybody who claims moral equivalence is a sick human being.)
220.kettle1 Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
either presidential candidate will most likely be a 1 term president.
True, History Channel say’s 12/20/2012, “Game Over” That makes for a 1 Term President.
225 Jamil,
Read up on the the military regimes the CIA helped get to power in Argentina and Chile in the 1970s and then talk to me about innocent people getting killed.
Stu (212)-
Hell, yeah. It’s Failure Friday!
bi (224)-
“…but mr.o can be easily painted as Jeremiah Wright’s best student and even former iraq prsident’s cousin”
bi, you’re much more charming when besieged by margin calls.
Ambac cruisin’ for a bruisin’ on Monday.
Idiot Protection Policy? You now have only 5 hours, pregame, to get trashed.
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/8441544?MSNHPHCP>1=39002
(234)-
I thought the object- for the average Jet fan- IS to forget the game:
Consider this an idiot protection policy for those fans decent and mature enough to enjoy the event without getting trashed,” said Codey, D-Essex. “For those that were used to overdoing it, hopefully now they will get home safely without endangering others and come to enjoy waking up the next morning and actually remembering the game.”
(234)-
Back in the day, me and my buds would be absolutely smoked by the time we stepped out of my apt on E. 85th.
All the drinking we did at the actual game was just buzz maintenance.
Then again, Richard Todd could drive anyone to drink. He may have actually caused me to begin hating football.
Too bad the Jets aren’t paying a farewell game at Shea.
If they did that, they wouldn’t even have to pay a demolition contractor to blow up the place. The fans would tear it to the ground.
“Then again, Richard Todd could drive anyone to drink”
Clot [236],
Scott Brunner is the head bartender.
#228 Jamil:I do not think any one is claiming moral equivalance, but simply trying to refrain form painting very thing in balck and white, or one side all abd, oen side all good, or U.S always right, everybody else is worng.
As far as Iran in the 50’s the overthrow was at the behest of the British oil interest,and the CIA obliged. However, lets nto forget it was Iran’s oil.
The point was the Iranians never forgot that, and as much as they do not like Americans, they dislike the Brits more, as England had a history of trying to destabalize Iran.
Sadly, in deposing the Shah they got soemthing worse,and it is there problem now.
If you gave me a choice of one person on Earth I could shoot, it would be Mark Gastineau.
From Richard Todd’s Wiki:
Career Highlights and Awards:
No notable achievements
I’ve been to a few Jets an Giants games. Jets fans are much rowdier and lower class life forms than Giants fans. Jets fans were drunk, brawling, throwing stuff off the upper decks.
Of course Giants fans seem to be about 92 years old on average so that could be the difference.
Clot [237],
Hey, they could always bring back Disco night?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-fEtF9NKfc&feature=related
#241 Clot,
Didn’t he throw 2 beautiful interceptions to one of the kiler B’s linebackers in the playoff loss to Miami? The linebacker was so wide open it was a beauty. The guy didn’t even have to move to intercept one of them. I think he caught it in self defense.
#175 randy: That is esactly why I believe you are wrong, and the price decliness are going to become fast and significant;they have already started in many areas.
bairen (242)-
To be a Jet fan is to understand the abyss of all human suffering.
However, I’ve been in an even weirder crowd than you get at a Jets game:
Back in the late ’70s, I lived in SF for a year. The 49ers were so bad, you could walk up and buy tickets. The first game I went to, everybody around me disappeared at halftime. As I went up the aisle to the head, there must have been 1,500-2,000 people passing pipes and joints. The place smelled like Ocho Rios.
[213] Stu,
the bank president’s new lament is OGIF. Checking the FDIC website now.
Jerry Goldstein was the best Giants QB of all time.
Guys,
Grim didn’t add the current presidential candidates to the moderation filter for no reason. I’m sure the intent was to prevent these pointless O vs M discussions.
Nope, no bank failures announced today.
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html
Too early, thought that happened after business hours.
Syb [249],
Bingo.
“Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) — Mohamed El-Erian, co-chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., said it has become harder for financial firms to raise capital because investors such as sovereign wealth funds have gotten “smarter.”
“We are in the process of a major adjustment of the banking system which is made harder because you don’t have the capital to lubricate it,” El-Erian said in an interview from Newport Beach, California, on Bloomberg Radio.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZL4QXJMmlXg&refer=home
250 ND: “Nope, no bank failures announced today.”
The question everybody should be asking:
It’s 5pm on Friday. Do you know where your banker is?
“It’s 5pm on Friday. Do you know where your banker is?”
Jamil,
Making cupcakes?
#253
There on to the big con? Bergabe and company’s plan to trash the dollar and have asset values collapse as we get foreigners to pay for it? They send us goods, some of which are actually useful, and we give them green paper or digital money that is dropping lower than a pols ethics.
one sad thing about this election is all blacks are explicitly or implicitly supporting mr.o no matter what. look at powell, watts, rice, and the list goes on …
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/08/jenna-bush-wedd.html
bairen Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
#241 Clot, Didn’t he throw 2 beautiful interceptions to one of the kiler B’s linebackers in the playoff loss to Miami? The linebacker was so wide open it was a beauty. The guy didn’t even have to move to intercept one of them. I think he caught it in self defense.
bairen-it-all: I give the Jets a pass (no pun intended) for that game. The Dolphins took the low road and didn’t cover the field with a tarp. Freeman McNeil was a cut-and-slash runner and so he had no chance in the mud.
Stinks really….
The Cuban’s beat us again in baseball!
What’s new?
“one sad thing about this election”
bi,
It certainly would not be sad if you muffled it.
259 – Stu
“What’s new?”
They had a hard time beating us.
Only in Texas…..
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080815/ts_nm/texas_guns_dc
damn u NJ Transit!!
all trains out of NY Penn are delayed an hr.
Njlifer: “everyone I spoke to (ranging from CFOs in Kiev, to farmers outside of Odessa), said they want closer ties with Russia, even to the point of mereging back with Russia and becoming an Autonomus region.”
Ukraine wants to expel Russian Navy from Sevastopol (their lease expires 2017) and limit their movement. Somehow, I doubt Russians are going to leave voluntarily. I hope they have plenty of food tasters
KIEV, Aug 14 (Reuters) – Pro-Western Ukraine vowed on Thursday to make Russia seek official permission for movements of its warships based in the ex-Soviet state despite Moscow’s objections, placing the neighbours on a collision course.
Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is based on Ukraine’s Crimea pensinsula under an agreement signed by the two ex-Soviet states. …
Ukraine’s plans for tougher rules on Russian naval moves, announced by President Viktor Yushchenko on Wednesday, are the latest affront to Moscow after Kiev’s sharp criticism of its military incursion into Georgia in support of breakaway regions South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
On Thursday, Georgian Chief of Staff Serhiy Kirichenko said Yushchenko’s decree would be carried out, no matter what.”
257. bi Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
one sad thing about this election is all blacks are explicitly or implicitly supporting mr.o no matter what. look at powell, watts, rice, and the list goes on …
That’s because the group with the least bias is the only one accused of bias.
can someone get me the address of GSMLS# 2559957
thanks….
Do we live a free-speach country?
http://ru.youtube.com/watch?v=H8XI2Chc6uQ
Refrigerators
My parents’ 4 year old GE started to die last night. They have a service contract so hopefully they can get it fixed. Otherwise, I’ll be helping to join the search for a new one. Four years. What happened to appliances lasting 10 years and more?
267 firestormik: You were claiming that Russians never were in Gori. This was a blatant lie, as even AP and Reuters confirmed, and now you come up with new propaganda.
First, free speech is about government restricting people’s free speech (say, like certain political party openly advocating to shut down Fox News and talk radio and even ABC News after the 9/11 miniseries)
Second, Fox let the ethnic russian girl talk and continue her political propaganda (I see all leftists in the US agree with her and support the Russian view). And yes, nobody can override ads. Besides, the political blathering by 12 year old russian girl was totally inappropriate. The ethnic cleansing carried out by the Russian/South Ossetian paramilitary troops has been an on-going war crime.
267 firestormik: Maybe you should move back to Russia (or maybe you are there already) and apply to your old KGB job (if you ever left).
In Russia, people who try to say opposing opinions are killed by the government. That is probably the sort of “free-speach” you advocate. Of course, this might be an issue if Russia actually had media channels not controlled by KGB and state..
OK here’s a typical Bergen county middle class town update..3 houses for sale in my neighborhood this summer…all sold.. I know the selling price of 2 out of 3 houses and they were pretty close to asking…also a POS to put all POS to shame got a nice price drop and it sold this last weekend. ..my point is that the anecdotal evidence around me says houses are selling and for a lot of $$. The POS started at 979k and eventually over 18 months went down to 859k where after being listed at that price for 2 days went under contract. BOTH agents were there yesterday…hideous
lost
Funny you mentiond that. I was just in an appliance store that I popped in on the way home from work. Salesman was showing me all the fridges and showed me a nice GE fridge, saying their refrigeration was top notch. I was thinking how full of crap he was the whole time based on what folks have said anecdotally, and your contribution added another anecdatapoint.
I’m not sure which way my parents will end up going. Definitely not Frigidaire. By the way, Amana, Maytag, Jenn-air and Whirlpool are all the same company. Did not know that. Keep us posted on your progress.
4 years is ridiculous.
Syb it was you! I couldn’t remember who posted the original fridge problem. My parents have a Maytag stove that’s still doing well. *crosses fingers* I just can’t believe the fridge is only 4 years old and having this problem. There was something else that happened the first year. I don’t remember much except that it was a quick fix. But now, all the food was ruined, dripped everywhere. I hope they can get this fixed. If not, I’ll be writing a nice letter to GE, right after I get done writing my letter to Microsoft.
I was curious, so I did a google search. I think this was Pret’s last post:
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/05/27/april-new-home-sales/#comment-187964
Just wanted too stop by. I have finally gotten a new job, now I do not have to deal with the whiney traders, investment banker etc at Merrill Lynch anymore. Those people on the trade floor are such babies. My goodness, its like talking with a 2 year old. You have to explain things very slow and use small words and yet they still do not get it. I worked at ML for a year and a half, and I am happy to no longer have to deal with them. They remind me of the old ladies in AC who sit at the slot machines and are using 5 at a time. If you sit at one not knowing they are using 5, they throw a hissy fit. They get all bent out of shape.
(Not saying all the traders, IBK people were complete idiots) I would say just about 90%.
Its funny they would through there job title like they were hardcore gangbangers.
Do you know who I am…I am a trader. I am IBK blah blah. What are you gonna start throwing up stock signs instead of gang signs.
These guys think they’re hard core. So I have come up with what they would be if they were gangbangers:
Debt Traders: Bloods
Equity Traders: Crips
Research: Latin Kings (dont hear from them that often, but you know there there)
IBK: Columbian drug lords
I mean its funny those 4 groups are the biggest joke at ML, everyone I know would just sit there and mock them. Most people I knew hated them. LOL I guess it goes to show, just because people think they are special, they are a joke to the rest of the company.
So that was my rant. I feel better, I am glad to be out of that useless company. IT was the worst place I have ever worked for.
I am glad to be out of there. I no longer have to deal with the babies on The Street.
firestormik:
pictures and video about Russian troops robbing a bank in Gori.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1563317.ece“>http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1563317.ece
“RUSSIAN soldiers have been caught on camera ROBBING a bank in war-torn Georgia.
The band of gun-toting men were caught on CCTV forcing their way into the bank in Gori.
Once inside, the men are seen breaking into the teller offices and rifling through the desks. “
Well said Great information, keep up the great work!
Back on the blog from home. What a relief!!!
#260 jamil: I do nto claim to support Russia, simply to understand it’s view point.
I also feel that if the South Ossetians wish to reunite with North Ossetia, as part of Russia who are we in the west to say no?
AS far as the Crimea you are right the Russians will not go, and the Crimea was part of Russia until Kruschev transfered it to Ukraine.
These are complex issues, not black and white good and evil as you try to amke them out to be.
Lost/Sybarite:
Better write that letter to GE asap. To pay for their lending woes they are looking for a buyer of their entire consumer division.
Back to fundamental vs technical analysis.
From Kitco.
IMPORTANT NEW NOTICE: Due to market volatility and higher demand in the entire industry, we are anticipating delays in supply of all bullion products. Please note that you can continue to place orders and prices will be guaranteed; however, cancellation fees will still be applicable regardless of the length of the delay. Consequently once inventory is received there may also be delays in processing and shipping by our vaults.
BC (280)-
Hmmm…
re:jamil Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
267 firestormik: You were claiming that Russians never were in Gori. This was a blatant lie, as even AP and Reuters confirmed, and now you come up with new propaganda.
—————————————
I agree with you in only one point – there is a lot of propaganda on both sides – here and there.
In regards of Gori – on the moment I said that – there was no troops in Gori neither Georgian nor Russians- it was absolutely empty and it was a blatant Georgian lie (which is a result of panic and destroyed communications). Russians entered Gori 2 days later to secure weapons stored there.
What I find funny here – you and a couple other people here are talking as “experts” about the countries they have never been to.
It’s really funny
re: Jamil
267 firestormik: Maybe you should move back to Russia (or maybe you are there already) and apply to your old KGB job (if you ever left).
————————–
As I already said, I’m not from Russia, and BTW there is no KGB anymore. And please, any proven fact about “people killed by goverment”. Or you are mixing up China with Russia??
Can someone tell me how to add a pic on the left of my post, and how to edit my signature.
Thanks.
RE: jamil
Second, Fox let the ethnic russian girl talk and continue her political propaganda (I see all leftists in the US agree with her and support the Russian view).
Again, you HAVE NO IDEA. Osetins are far far away from Russians in terms of etnics. They let her speak and once she started speaking something opposite from fox propaganda they shut her up. Again, I don’t blame georgia, and I don’t blame russia. I just have input from all 3 sides – US, Russa and Georgia. What you are telling here is just stupid one-point of view opinion
There goes Grassley’s big Citi donation for his next campaign:
WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- A senior Republican senator wants the Securities and Exchange Commission to ensure that banks including Citigroup Inc. (C) and UBS AG (UBS) don’t benefit from a tax deduction on penalties they may face for their involvement in selling auction-rate securities.
Sen. Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, the highest-ranking Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, raised the tax issue in a Friday letter to SEC Chairman Christopher Cox. He asked Cox to increase any penalty the SEC imposes in the auction-rate security scandal to anticipate potential tax deductions.
The SEC has not proposed any fine against the banks, which have entered into settlements with state regulators and the SEC. But to illustrate his point, Grassley used a hypothetical example of a $600 million fine against Citigroup.
“For example, if the SEC decides that Citigroup should pay $600 million in connection with Citigroup’s representations regarding auction-rate securities, Citigroup may be allowed to deduct this $600 million payment from its taxable income,” Grassley wrote.
“To prevent Citigroup from receiving this potential tax windfall at the expense of American taxpayers, the SEC should consider ‘grossing-up’ the payment by Citigroup to an amount of $923 million,” he wrote.
#286
A politician actally making sense about a policy. Must be a full moon.
Now if Grassley would write a letter to the EPA about what a dumb idea turning 30% of our corn crop into ethanol is I might actually change my opinion that all of congress isn’t worth a pinch of $hit.
last comment at 10pm?!?!!!?
Are you folks all passed out drunk???
GET A JOB!!!
Kids today. I tell ya.
re 266 spam spam bacon spam
68 First Avenue
Raritan Boro 08869
From my daily Montclair listings:
http://newmls.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?method=getData&sysid=%203853723&ptype=RES&report=res_media&pubid=259341&fromPublic=PUBLIC
MAGNIFICIENT UNIQUE ARCHITECTURAL,CONTEMPORARY CUTOM DESIGN HOME SITUATED ON CHARMING GARDEN SETTING.FEELING OF ROYALTY,PAVER FRONT YARD.SOLD STRICTLY AS-IS.BUYER RESPON FOR ALL CITY RQMT:COFO,SMK&CAR
ADD REM: BUYER MUST PAY$75.DOC FEE AT CLOSING.ALL CONTRACTS ARE SUBJECT TO INDYMAC BANKS SENIOR MANAGEMENT APPROVAL AND ANY OFFERS OR COUNTER OFFERS BY INDYMAC BANK ARE NOT BINDING UNLESS THE ENTIRE AGREEMENT IS RATIFIED BY ALL PARTIES.
This is in Montclair’s South End on a street where most other homes sit on a 50ft wide lot and are assessed around $400k. It kinda makes me wonder who built this crazy place.
Unlike you, most people don’t have limitless time to sit here and post at 2:00 am in the damn morning. Put a sock in it.
njpatient Says:
August 16th, 2008 at 2:03 am
last comment at 10pm?!?!!!?
Are you folks all passed out drunk???
GET A JOB!!!
Kids today. I tell ya.
McDonalds for breakfast when you’ve drunk too much. Gotta replace those fats and salts.
Kids today.
“U.S. banking giant switches billions in debt to Britain to avoid paying corporation tax for 50 years”
http://tinyurl.com/6flqzw
278#, 3b, are north ossetians allowed to vote if they want to join SO as part of Georgia or as an independeant country?
#260 jamil: I do nto claim to support Russia, simply to understand it’s view point.
I also feel that if the South Ossetians wish to reunite with North Ossetia, as part of Russia who are we in the west to say no?
Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, hinted that the US had pledged to back Warsaw in the event of Russian aggression towards Poland. He said that he only agreed to host the US defence shield on the condition that the US agreed to help augment Poland’s defences with Patriot missiles, which are intended to ward off any threat from Russia. “We have crossed the Rubicon,” he said
Grim,
This week’s report from the hinterlands…
Hunterdon County Comp Killers:
MLS#: 2517016
37 Jefferson Street
Lambertville City
SLD: 08/31/04 $510,000
OLP: 05/12/08 $499,000
SLD: 08/15/08 $450,000
DOM: 43
MLS#: 2497836
9 Paddock Lane
Raritan Twp
SLD: 02/25/05 $404,000
OLP: 03/13/08 $429,000
SLD: 08/13/08 $387,000
DOM: 116
MLS#: 2516590
16 Hickory Trail
Raritan Twp
SLD: 08/01/05 $483,000
OLP: 05/09/08 $444,900
SLD: 08/13/08 $420,000
DOM: 91
#294 willwork4beer
Good work. You should treat yourself to a good craft brew.
bairen
If you liked those, you’ll love the futures. Working on them right now.
BTW – Finally got my hands on a six pack of James Boag’s Premium Lager last night. Crisp with a somewhat spicy finish. Good stuff. Only Tasmanian beer I ever had… :)
#296 willwork4beer
James Boag’s is my favorite Aussie beer.
Looking forward to the futures. Do you have anything on Lebanon Township?
bairen
I know, it was your recommendation that got me to try it.
No Lebanon this week, but I’ve got a Tewksbury for you. They will be up in a few minutes…
As promised, another report from the hinterlands…
Hunterdon County FUTURE Comp Killers:
MLS#: 2565990
16 Mission Hills Road
Clinton Twp
SLD: 05/01/06 $375,000
OLP: 08/13/08 $309,900
MLS#: 2566094
53 Herman Thau Road
Clinton Twp
SLD: 04/10/06 $725,000
OLP: 08/13/08 $699,000
MLS#: 2564706
35 Delaware Avenue
Lambertville City
SLD: 05/26/05 $370,000
OLP: 08/09/08 $345,000
MLS#: 2566921
426 Willow Court
Raritan Twp
SLD: 12/29/05 $269,000
OLP: 08/15/08 $252,900
MLS#: 2565632
426 Spruce Court
Raritan Twp
SLD: 12/06/06 $269,900
OLP: 08/11/08 $257,000
MLS#: 2566068
31 Pony Lane
Raritan Twp
SLD: 12/05/05 $539,000
OLP: 08/13/08 $525,000
MLS#: 2566717
220 Johnson Road
Readington Twp
SLD: 04/25/07 $745,000
OLP: 08/15/08 $735,000
MLS#: 2566700
2 Sutton Road
Tewksbury Twp
SLD: 04/23/05 $655,000
OLP: 08/15/08 $598,000
Just for fun, how about a nice lowball…
MLS#: 2385716
1 Smith Road
Readington Twp
OLP: 02/16/05 $1,150,000
Withdrawn
DOM: 421
OLP: 04/13/06 $1,150,000
Withdrawn
DOM: 57
OLP: 06/09/06 $1,075,000
Withdrawn
DOM: 161
OLP: 03/15/07 $1,025,000
LLP: 07/25/08 $799,000
SLD: 08/08/08 $750,000
DOM: 498
400K / 35% off OLP
Gator @ 290,
Been on the market forever.
[url=http://journals.aol.com/yasminbirth/yasmin-birth-control/]yasmin birth control side effects
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Don’t know if this has been posted. Roubini now influencing Summers?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/magazine/17pessimist-t.html
Grim 304 – It’s already dropped over 100k, but who would build that type of monstrosity in that neighborhood? When does it get carved up to help us meet our COAH requirement?
Stu and I drove out to the hinterlands to take the little Gator to a birthday party at the Whitehouse Station Firehouse (which by the way is a blast for the kiddies and a tax deduction to boot). We took a detour out to Flemington to take Lil Gator to see the awesome model train setup at Northlandz. Lil Gator had a blast. On the way out Stu noticed that the Northlandz sign proudly proclaimed itself a great place to visit on your ‘Staycation’.
Hank Paulson no longer a GS Boy??
“The Treasury Department tapped investment bank Morgan Stanley to assess how vulnerable the troubled mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are to further economic stresses and how much capital they would need to weather them, according to documents released yesterday.”
“Whether it gains other benefits from being allowed a detailed look inside Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is unclear. Morgan Stanley laid out its potential conflicts of interest to the Treasury in its July proposal, but the Treasury redacted much of that section at Morgan Stanley’s request from the documents disclosed yesterday. The contract bans Morgan Stanley from doing business with the mortgage firms until March of next year, two months after its contract expires. ”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/14/AR2008081403604.html?wpisrc=newsletter
(306) BC – Oh my – We do have to admit we have a problem before we can do anything about it….I hope the I.O.U.S.A. movie gets the word out…
Excellent reading. If you go to the RGE Monitor page, Roubini adds a few comments about the article as well.
“We have a sub-prime financial system,” he said, “not a subprime mortgage market.”
Zillow.com finally has a Zestimate for my P-way townhouse.
Their Zestimate is a whole thousand dollars more than what I bought it for back in June of 2003.
# 207
Dad???? Is that you?
re 309
‘Morgan Stanley will accept no fees for this assignment and will receive only $95,000 from the Government toward its expenses.’
from the MS release on the consultation
http://www.morganstanley.com/about/press/articles/6742.html
Excellent read
“The Great Consumer Crash of 2009”
by James Quinn
I found it at Seeking Alpha….
Long article – Full of charts – graphs…
“For the last seven years the American consumer has carried the weight of the world on its shoulders. This has been a heavy burden, but when you take steroids it doesn’t seem so heavy. The steroid of choice for the American consumer has been debt. We have utilized home equity loans, cash out refinancing, credit card debt, and auto loans to live above our means. It has been a fun ride, but the ride is over. We can’t get steroids from our dealer (banks) anymore.”
314 Cindy
Did you see my pension post the other day?
(315) lostinny – I honestly don’t remember.
After reading Mike Morgan’s – I just sort of stepped back. Can you recall any details,
or the day? I could check back. I’m working again so I can’t read all of the time any more.
Wow Cindy! Great Quinn article. For those too lazy to read the entire thing, here is the conclusion.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/90892-the-great-consumer-crash-of-2009?source=front_page_most_popular_articles
“In conclusion, the gathering storm has arrived. It will be long, painful and destructive. Those who prepared for the storm by not taking on excessive debt and living above their means, will ride it out unscathed. Those who built their house on sand by leveraging up and living the “good” life, will see their house swept out to sea. The storm will pass and we will rebuild. Our country is resilient. The purging of this massive debt will result in the creative destruction that is the hallmark of American capitalism. New opportunities, new technologies and a new attitude will put us back on course.
There has been and will be resistance to the inevitable deep recession that is coming. The American consumer is not cutting back willingly. They are being dragged kicking and screaming towards the joys of frugality. The “material generation” needs to dematerialize. My biggest concern is that our politician leaders and their cronies running our government will continue to try and reverse the normal capitalistic course of recession and expansion. Companies need to fail, housing needs to find its bottom based on supply, demand and price. Those who gambled must be allowed to lose and suffer the consequences. If the government attempts to shift the losses to those who lived lifestyles of thrift, an angry uprising will ensue. Government intervention in this natural process could lead to a decade long depression. Let’s hope that reasonable heads prevail.”
(315) lostinny
– I found your post from Thursday -8/14 #68
Cindy –
“I hope your pension is there for you when you do retire. I think pensions here will disappear and only people smart enough to invest in other retirement options will be able to survice on their savings.”
Lost –
I hope it’s there, too. It isn’t just about being smart enough to save. I am choosing to pay down my debt and save what I can. I don’t see myself retiring until I have -0- debt. With the cost of living going up, and getting no raises, I may need to work longer.
Pukin, I hate you and I better not ever see you walking in my neighborhood. You’ve even gotten to one of our most conservative voices. I can’t believe Patrick J. Buchanan is in sympathy with you damn commies.
Let’s get something straight Buchanan, there’s absolutely no hypocrisy whenever we support freedom in this world. Freedom is not free. Israel’s response to Hizbollah in Lebananon is not equivalent to the response of these damn commies in Georgia. What the hell is wrong with you? You too are cruising for a damn bruising if I see you around my neighborhood.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article20522.htm
Blowback From Bear-Baiting
By Patrick J. Buchanan
15/08/08 “ICH ” — – Mikheil Saakashvili’s decision to use the opening of the Olympic Games to cover Georgia’s invasion of its breakaway province of South Ossetia must rank in stupidity with Gamal Abdel-Nasser’s decision to close the Straits of Tiran to Israeli ships.
Nasser’s blunder cost him the Sinai in the Six-Day War. Saakashvili’s blunder probably means permanent loss of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
After shelling and attacking what he claims is his own country, killing scores of his own Ossetian citizens and sending tens of thousands fleeing into Russia, Saakashvili’s army was whipped back into Georgia in 48 hours.
Vladimir Putin took the opportunity to kick the Georgian army out of Abkhazia, as well, to bomb Tbilisi and to seize Gori, birthplace of Stalin.
Reveling in his status as an intimate of George Bxush, Dick Chexxey and John Mcxxxn, and America’s lone democratic ally in the Caucasus, Saakashvili thought he could get away with a lightning coup and present the world with a fait accompli.
Mikheil did not reckon on the rage or resolve of the Bear.
American charges of Russian aggression ring hollow. Georgia started this fight — Russia finished it. People who start wars don’t get to decide how and when they end.
Russia’s response was “disproportionate” and “brutal,” wailed Bush.
True. But did we not authorize Israel to bomb Lebanon for 35 days in response to a border skirmish where several Israel soldiers were killed and two captured? Was that not many times more “disproportionate”?
Russia has invaded a sovereign country, railed Bush. But did not the United States bomb Serbia for 78 days and invade to force it to surrender a province, Kosovo, to which Serbia had a far greater historic claim than Georgia had to Abkhazia or South Ossetia, both of which prefer Moscow to Tbilisi?
Is not Western hypocrisy astonishing?
When the Soviet Union broke into 15 nations, we celebrated. When Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia, Bosnia, Montenegro and Kosovo broke from Serbia, we rejoiced. Why, then, the indignation when two provinces, whose peoples are ethnically separate from Georgians and who fought for their independence, should succeed in breaking away?
Are secessions and the dissolution of nations laudable only when they advance the agenda of the neocons, many of who viscerally detest Russia?
That Putin took the occasion of Saakashvili’s provocative and stupid stunt to administer an extra dose of punishment is undeniable. But is not Russian anger understandable? For years the West has rubbed Russia’s nose in her Cold War defeat and treated her like Weimar Germany.
When Moscow pulled the Red Army out of Europe, closed its bases in Cuba, dissolved the evil empire, let the Soviet Union break up into 15 states, and sought friendship and alliance with the United States, what did we do?
American carpetbaggers colluded with Muscovite Scalawags to loot the Russian nation. Breaking a pledge to Mikhail Gorbachev, we moved our military alliance into Eastern Europe, then onto Russia’s doorstep. Six Warsaw Pact nations and three former republics of the Soviet Union are now NATO members.
Bxush, Chxexney and Mcxxin have pushed to bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO. This would require the United States to go to war with Russia over Stalin’s birthplace and who has sovereignty over the Crimean Peninsula and Sebastopol, traditional home of Russia’s Black Sea fleet.
When did these become U.S. vital interests, justifying war with Russia?
The United States unilaterally abrogated the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty because our technology was superior, then planned to site anti-missile defenses in Poland and the Czech Republic to defend against Iranian missiles, though Iran has no ICBMs and no atomic bombs. A Russian counter-offer to have us together put an anti-missile system in Azerbaijan was rejected out of hand.
We built a Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline from Azerbaijan through Georgia to Turkey to cut Russia out. Then we helped dump over regimes friendly to Moscow with democratic “revolutions” in Ukraine and Georgia, and tried to repeat it in Belarus.
Americans have many fine qualities. A capacity to see ourselves as others see us is not high among them.
Imagine a world that never knew Ronald Reagan, where Europe had opted out of the Cold War after Moscow installed those SS-20 missiles east of the Elbe. And Europe had abandoned NATO, told us to go home and become subservient to Moscow.
How would we have reacted if Moscow had brought Western Europe into the Warsaw Pact, established bases in Mexico and Panama, put missile defense radars and rockets in Cuba, and joined with China to build pipelines to transfer Mexican and Venezuelan oil to Pacific ports for shipment to Asia? And cut us out? If there were Russian and Chinese advisers training Latin American armies, the way we are in the former Soviet republics, how would we react? Would we look with bemusement on such Russian behavior?
For a decade, some of us have warned about the folly of getting into Russia’s space and getting into Russia’s face. The chickens of democratic imperialism have now come home to roost — in Tbilisi.
Mr. Buchanan is a nationally syndicated columnist and author of Churchill, Hitler, and “The Unnecessary War”: How Britain Lost Its Empire and the West Lost the World, “The Death of the West,”, “The Great Betrayal,” “A Republic, Not an Empire” and “Where the Right Went Wrong.”
Grim~
How much of RE ect’s threats do we have to put up with?
Help for Home Buyers
By SHELLY BANJO
August 16, 2008
When it comes to housing, it’s a buyer’s market — especially for first-time home buyers eligible for new tax breaks.
The American Housing Rescue and Foreclosure Prevention Act of 2008, passed by Congress at the end of July with hopes of shoring up the ailing housing market, also includes an important tax break. First-time home buyers who purchase a home after April 8, 2008, and before July 1, 2009, are eligible for a $7,500 tax credit (or, if the home costs less than $75,000, a credit equal to 10% of the purchase price).
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121885474988146639.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
How the Smart Money Lost $1 Trillion, So Far
http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north647.html
318 Cindy
I agree. But I don’t expect a pension to be there for me at all. I don’t expect to retire early even though they say I can. Like you, I won’t retire until all debt is paid off. Right now that consists of student loans and hopefully one day, a mortgage.
The Trillion Dollar Meltdown: Easy Money, High Rollers, and the Great Credit Crash
http://search.barnesandnoble.com/booksearch/isbninquiry.asp?ean=1586485636
There is good audio interview of the author.
The so called $7500 tax break is a absolute joke! Moron politicians!!!
#314 Great article. Thanks, Cindy!
(317) Stu
“Wow Cindy! Great Quinn article.”
Thanks ever so much for posting the Quinn article, Stu.
When I put that information with the Roubini article (we must first acknowledge we have a problem) – I came to the conclusion that it is time to announce to the American people that we have a war here, on the home front. Like at an AA meeting – the drug being debt. You know… how you have to declare you ARE an alcoholic before you can speak.
I truly believe in the American people. But keeping them in the dark is a crime. We have many level-headed people in this country but they cannot act in a responsible way when they are being lied to.
Thankfully, we have the internet, thankfully we have excellent authors who are compiling data and speaking out. Again, thanks here to everyone for sharing your ideas.
Cindy
The problem is that the first step to recovery is admitting one has a problem. There are a lot of people out there that are still in denial. I can only hope they open their eyes.
[308] gator
I have driven by Northlandz dozens of times and always wondered what was there. Lil Nom isn’t much into model trains (more of an American Girl girl), but Daddy is.
“Wow Cindy! Great Quinn article. For those too lazy to read the entire thing, here is the conclusion.”
Stu/Cindy,
It’s a must read. If anybody is too lazy to read this, it probably does not matter. They are turning Japanese, I mean Elvis Patterson.
re 319
‘I better not ever see you walking in my neighborhood.’
Our own Travis Bickel.
The so called $7500 tax break is a absolute joke! Moron politicians!!!
It is a joke and here is why:
1. It’s not a tax break, it’s a 15 year interest free loan. If the alternative is to finance the $7,500 over 30 years as part of the mortgage, the monthly payment is about the same. You don’t really see any benefit for 15 years until you are done paying the loan. If the goal is to help the housing market today, this doesn’t do that as it doesn’t extend buying power.
2. The loan quickly phases out at $75k in income for individuals and $150k for couples. So in high cost/high income areas with the biggest affordability gaps, like our area, the only “sideline buyers” who may actually be able to afford to buy and support the market, are not eligible for this break.
Cindy – good article.
From the UK front – article in weekend paper noting the “surprising” drop in rents across the country. Seems investors are trying to rent out their properties and while the number of renters swell (they’re certainly not buying), rental inventory is surging. Course plenty of would-be landlords are unrealistic, trying to rent out kitchenless hovels and the like so THAT inventory is going nowhere. NOBODY could have ever have seen this coming. Gasp, shock, horror.
/sarcasm off
Cindy – good article.
From the UK front – article in weekend paper noting the “surprising” drop in rents across the country. Seems investors are trying to rent out their properties and while the number of renters swell (they’re certainly not buying), rental inventory is surging. Course plenty of would-be landlords are unrealistic, trying to rent out kitchenless hovels and the like so THAT inventory is going nowhere. NOBODY could have ever have seen this coming. Gasp, shock, horror.
/sarcasm off
This is a good read re the recent action of the dollar:
http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=B42DCD7F-1871-E587-E18BDF002B0698FD
WAG THE DOG: HOW TO CONCEAL MASSIVE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE
http://www.opednews.com/articles/1/WAG-THE-DOG-HOW-TO-CONCEA-by-Ellen-Brown-080814-489.html
Large financial firm failure seen likely
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1248262920080812
Thought some of you might find this useful. I put up a chart tool showing Bergen County property taxes.
In most towns it’s pretty easy to guess when they did their last assessment.
Nom 329 – You should definitely go and check it out. The work that was put into that place is amazing. You post reminds me of a sign on display at Nothlandz:
“He thinks: A grown man who loves trains will never grow old. She thinks: A grown man who loves trains never grew up.”
he [337],
Libor is close to record spread vs.ffr. We are not even approaching take me out to the ball game. As a matter of fact, they haven’t even designated a singer.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1747783620080817
In case this has not yet been posted:
U.S. likely to recapitalize Fannie, Freddie: report
Sun Aug 17, 2008 5:49pm EDT
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. Treasury is growing increasingly likely to recapitalize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the months ahead on the taxpayer’s dime, Barron’s reported in its August 18 edition.
The weekly financial newspaper said that such a move could wipe out existing holders of the agencies’ common stock, with preferred shareholders and even holders of the two entities’ $19 billion of subordinated debt also suffering losses.
An insider in the Bush administration told Barron’s that Fannie and Freddie “are being jawboned” by the Treasury Department and their new regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), to raise more equity.
But government officials don’t expect the agencies to succeed, Barron’s reported.
If the government-sponsored enterprises fail to raise fresh capital, the administration is likely to mount its own recapitalization, with Treasury infusing taxpayer money into the agencies, according to the Barron’s source.
The paper reported the infusion would take the form of a preferred stock with such seniority, dividend preference and convertibility rights that Fannie’s and Freddie’s existing common shares “effectively would be wiped out, and their preferred shares left bereft of dividends.”
The report called an equity injection by the government a quasi-nationalization — without having to put the agencies’ liabilities on the U.S. balance sheet, and thus doubling the U.S. debt.
After accounting for deferred tax assets and generous asset marks, Fannie and Freddie each may have a negative $50 billion in asset value, and little prospect of digging themselves out of the hole, Barron’s reported.
“U.S. likely to recapitalize Fannie, Freddie: report”
Should this come as a shock? They fought very hard to get the rights to “possibly” bail them out. Free money, of course they’re going to use it.
It wouldn’t have been so bad if Fannie and Freddie didn’t decide to buy billions of dollars in bad debt last year.
So it’s like we’re indirectly bailing out the private banks.
guys, pl. help us decide .
We are looking at a 2br/2ba condo in westgate at edison. Recent comps show condos there closing around 320k. How much should we offer ?
Got back from a week in Jersey. Why do I need middle eastern men to pump my gas is a mystery but it felt nice. Stayed at seaview marriot went to smithville, the beach and story book land. Very nice. People say hello that far out. So I get back and go to get bagels in morning as there is no food in fridge and at 7:40am I get t-boned by some lady in a monster full sized 2008 Lexus truck. The damm passenger mirror almost took my head off as it flew by and the lady actually broke my right speaker and glove door. Wow those full size suvs throw some weight around. lady claimed she was doing 30 but who knows. My passenger door is v shaped so I doubt it. Well anyhow my 1998 Mercury Sable is toast at a mere 33K miles. Still runs. She blew my tire off the bead when she dragged me but I was able to pop it back on
bead and pump it up and use a crow bar to free up other tire and took it for one last trip around the block before it goes to the insurance auction. Well at least I won’t be in the last lane which is the push or tow lane. My old sable will be in the second to the last lane where the cars that barely move under their own power chug on through!!! Now what car to get? I need a 5 passenger car that I can get used and I want one in the 2006 to 2008 range. STS, CTS or 5 series look nice. Wife is convinced eclass looks like a deluxe camry. Will be driving to train on Monday in my half restored 1975 450sl. I think at 34 years of age I will have the oldest station car and will beat out the pot bellied 47 year old guy who drives his knight rider camaro with his 82-84 college parking stickers still attached and a good 20 pounds of bondo. Bet he has some memories in that car. Or he is nuts. Wish their was a convertible that sat 5 people as I would buy that.
“guys, pl. help us decide .”
cjgal,
Lie down and take a couple of Tylenol’s. Come back in 2010.
3343 CJGAL: Do not waste your monry on a condo, bu a single family house. Wait until 2009/10, lots of bargains will be had.
John
I am a big fan of the new Caddies, built on their sigma platform. The 08+ CTS are the most stunning design, wise both exterior and interior. However, I think the STS is more bang for buck, and has some cool features that aren’t available on CTS yet. I am a sucker for a V8, but the new V6 is supposedly nearly as fast and better on gas. My suggestion would be a loaded 300HP V6 STS – make sure to get the premium sports/luxury package. If you don’t care so much about mileage, a just off lease loaded 05/06 STS can probably be had for a steal.
Some anecdotal evidence to pass on … yesterday afternoon I made the mandatory mid-project Lowes run to get more supplies. The place was beyond dead. Usually Saturday is prime time for DIYers. I’m willing to chalk up some of it to vacation season. However, I’m willing to bet the Home Labryinths are more quiet than the town library is that $250 on crown molding now longer adds $10,000 to the value of a house.
Toon 1, Man U 1. Geordies took it to those frontrunners but good.
I’m looking for a store to loot! Long live King Kev!
beer (303)-
That location makes the gas station in Deliverance look good.
BC (340)-
Anybody who looks at the blowout in LIBOR, Fannie, Freddie spreads should be in such shock that pursuing an active day of getting long anything is impossible. They set record after record…and nobody seems to really notice.
I assume you guys have been talking about this all weekend:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/magazine/17pessimist-t.html?_r=1&ref=magazine&oref=slogin
“Accordingly, he sees the choice facing the United States as stark but simple: either the government backs up a trillion-plus dollars’ worth of high-risk mortgages (in exchange for the lenders’ agreement to reduce monthly mortgage payments), or the banks and other institutions holding those mortgages — or the complex securities derived from them — go under. “You either nationalize the banks or you nationalize the mortgages,” he said. “Otherwise, they’re all toast.”
cjgal :343
Is that Westgate or Westgate II you’re looking to buy?
Is it an End Unit?? Near the pool and clubhouse??
Is this a FSBO or agent-listed??
Why is the Edison location important to you?
BTW – Westgate is a nice complex….contempo styling, nice cedar exterior. I just looked up recent sales in MLS and since April there are 4 closed sales of 2 bed 2 bath end units at $335 – $340K range.
Where did the $320K number come from.
Be careful with condos, their value fluctuates wildly in this chaotic market and a downdraft can really hurt you.
guys, pl. help us decide .
2br/2ba condo at westgate in Edison for $320K??
Have you lost your mind??
These days you can get a nice single family house in non-Indian neighborhood for less that this. Also look at the rent vs. purchase. You can rent this place for half.
John,
Look at the Mercedes E350, their full sunroof feels like convertible and a tank at the same time.
RE jamil 276:
They don’t look like Russians – Osetians may be, but not Russians, even the uniform is not stock Russian army one.
Check this out
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/13/georgia.russia3
354- Frank
“These days you can get a nice single family house in non-Indian neighborhood for less that this”
How could this be??!!!??? You said the NJ RE market was on fire!
or is it a fire sale??
Frank
Please, go away.
3343 CJGAL: Do not waste your monry on a condo
If your ultimate goal is to live in a condo, then go for it. If you are settling on a condo because you feel you can’t swing a decent SFH right now, then I would advise to rent and wait.
Condo’s tend to do poorly in housing downturns. They are essentially get commoditized when you have multiple sellers in the same complex. Also, unless you are in a high end urban condo market (Hoboken etc.), condos in most of suburbia tend to be viewed as”inferior substitutes” to SFH’s. As SFH prices fall back to affordable levels, many current condo owners plan to “trade up” to a SFH. Many will be stuck.
Frank (354)-
You really suck.
Three Hundred Sixty First!
How great is Northlandz, we had a great time!
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