From the AP:
S&P: Home prices drop by record amount in 2Q
A widely watched index released Tuesday showed home prices dropping by the sharpest rate ever in the second quarter, but the data for June suggest the severity of the housing slump may be waning.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index tumbled a record 15.4 percent during the quarter from the same period a year ago.
The monthly indices also clocked in record declines. The 20-city index fell by 15.9 percent in June compared with a year ago, the largest drop since its inception in 2000. The 10-city index plunged 17 percent, its biggest decline in its 21-year history.
However, the rate of single-family home price declines slowed from May to June, a possible silver lining, the index creators said.
“While there is no national turnaround in residential real estate prices, it is possible that we are seeing some regions struggling to come back, which has resulted in some moderation in price declines at the national level” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P.
From the Record:
Housing market finally hitting bottom?
Home prices dropped 7.3 percent in the New York metropolitan area, which includes North Jersey, from June 2007 to June 2008, the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index reported today.
While that was a significant drop, it was less than half the decline seen nationwide. And some analysts saw signs that the market may be reaching a bottom
…
“Not one market is showing a positive return over the past 12 months,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor’s.But Patrick O’Keefe, former head of the New Jersey Builders Association, said there are signs that the market may be bottoming out in New Jersey and the Northeast as a whole. For one thing, Case-Shiller reported that prices in the New York metropolitan area inched up 0.2 percent from May to June of this year, the first time in almost two years that they haven’t dropped month over month.
“It would be premature to conclude that a rebound is underway,” said O’Keefe, now a director with J.H. Cohn, a Roseland accounting firm. He said housing sales and prices in the region will likely remain flat into 2009.
From Newsday:
U.S. house prices again decline at slower pace
U.S. house prices declined at a slower pace for the fourth straight month in June, signaling that the worst housing slump in more than 25 years may be starting to stabilize.
Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell 0.5 percent from the previous month, with nine areas reporting a gain compared with seven in May, the S&P/Case-Shiller index showed. Prices were down 15.9 percent from the previous month, less than economists had forecast.
The figures add evidence that the drag on the economy from the housing slump is lessening, while officials and analysts predict that a rebound remains at least a year away. A private report yesterday showed that sales of existing homes in the past three months averaged the same rate as the previous period.
…
S&P/Case Shiller also released quarterly figures for nationwide home prices. That measure showed a 2.3 percent drop in the three months through June from the previous three months, compared with a 6.8 percent decline in the first quarter.
…
Unlike half the metro areas in the 20-city index, the New York metro region did not see double-digit declines from a year ago but fell 7.3 percent, data show. Prices did see a 0.2 percent uptick from May to June for the metropolitan area, which also covers Long Island, parts of Connecticut, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, according to the Case-Shiller report.
From the WSJ:
Housing Data Signal Small Pickup
Home-Price Drops
Slow in Big Cities;
Phoenix Hit Hard
By KELLY EVANS
August 27, 2008; Page A2
Home prices are improving in some parts of the country but still falling sharply in places like Phoenix, as the weak housing market and shaky consumer confidence continue to weigh on the U.S. economy.
“We’re starting to see some hopeful signals in parts of the country,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at Global Insight, a Lexington, Mass.-based forecasting firm.
On a monthly basis, home-price declines in the nation’s largest cities slowed in June, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price indexes released Tuesday. Prices fell 0.6% on average from the month before after falling by 1% in May. The June performance was a marked improvement from monthly drops of 2% to 2.5% that occurred earlier this year.
But prices are still much lower than they were a year ago. Home prices in 10 major metropolitan areas in June fell 17% from the year before, though the declines appear to be moderating. The broader 20-city index showed similar patterns. A separate gauge of home prices by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, which covers more of the country but only tracks mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, found home prices were unchanged in June from the month before.
Nine of the 20 metropolitan areas tracked by the S&P/Case-Shiller index posted monthly price gains in June. They included Denver, where prices grew 1.5%, and Boston, where prices rose 1.2%. Phoenix, meanwhile, was the worst performer last month; prices fell 2.6%. Prices also fell sharply in Miami, Las Vegas and Los Angeles.
“Prices are still falling very steeply in the areas that got most overheated and further declines will be necessary in those regions for sure,” Mr. Gault said.
From the WSJ:
FHA Raises Its Premiums to Insure
Repayment of Mortgages
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
August 27, 2008; Page A11
The Federal Housing Administration, a U.S. agency that is rapidly shouldering more of the risk on home loans, raised the premiums it charges for insuring that mortgages will be repaid.
In a posting on its Web site Tuesday, the FHA said the upfront premiums charged to most borrowers will be 1.75% of the loan amount, effective Oct. 1. That is up from the 1.5% that was in effect until July 14, when the FHA adopted a “risk-based” pricing system that created a range of charges depending on borrowers’ credit scores and the amount of the down payment or equity they owned in the homes. In late July, Congress approved a housing bill that included a provision requiring the FHA to revert to a standard premium at least until Oct. 1, 2009.
On a $300,000 loan, the new upfront premium works out to $5,250, up from $4,500. The annual premiums paid by borrowers would remain at 0.50% to 0.55% of the loan balance.
From the WSJ:
FDIC Weighs Tapping
Treasury as Funds Run Low
Short-Term Loans
Might Be Needed
After a Bank Failure
By DAMIAN PALETTA and JESSICA HOLZER
August 27, 2008; Page A11
WASHINGTON — Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said Tuesday her agency might have to borrow money from the Treasury Department to see it through an expected wave of bank failures.
Ms. Bair said the borrowing could be needed to cover short-term cash-flow pressures caused by reimbursing depositors immediately after the failure of a bank. The borrowed money would be repaid once the assets of that failed bank are sold.
The last time the FDIC borrowed funds from Treasury came at the tail end of the savings-and-loan crisis in the early 1990s after thousands of banks were shuttered. That the agency is considering the option again, after the collapse of just nine banks this year, illustrates the concern among Washington regulators about the weakness of the U.S. banking system in the wake of the credit crisis.
#3
The Bair witch project
Sounds like a horror movie
#1 I think the drop is more severe, at least in the lower end of the market. (The houses we’re looking at)
You’re very selfish. You want people financially devastated just so you can buy a house. That’s sick, real sick. Guess what? Prices are reaching a bottom in NJ after not having dropped very much at all. The only thing that’s going to happen now is that you’re going to have a difficult time getting a mortgage due to the devilment all you guys have fomented.
You can’t wish bad things on others without it affecting you. Serves you right.
bairen Says:
August 27th, 2008 at 7:17 am
#1 I think the drop is more severe, at least in the lower end of the market. (The houses we’re looking at)
“The last time the FDIC borrowed funds from Treasury came at the tail end of the savings-and-loan crisis in the early 1990s after thousands of banks were shuttered.”
[3],
At the tail end of the crisis in the 1990’s. OUCH. We are at the very beginning of this crisis, bank failures, and the FDIC is already tapping the Treasury.
Short term pressures? Another joke. Whenever our liars tell us it’s a short term issue, batten down the hatches. There is nothing short term in DC. Banks will be crippled for years on years.The housing bust will go on for years. The only winners, those with cash staring at the whites of 50.5. It will be a long, long walk home.
How’s this for short term issues, from Mish;
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SLUCg327sgI/AAAAAAAADL0/gxCtM5SZsc4/s1600-h/Fed-Factors.png
#7 rediaperwipe: I guess yoy live in the same town as frank. You are delusional, as always.
From MarketWatch Commentary
Housing hasn’t bottomed yet
Don’t bother chilling the Champagne
Economists who are calling the housing bottom are like a baseball team that’s close to clinching a playoff berth but keeps losing, and its clubhouse staff has to keep loading and unloading Champagne across the country.
Every month, these economists say the bottom is close, but really some poor souls are putting the Champagne back on the truck for the next month.
“People want to believe the end is near, but we just don’t think so,” said Josh Shapiro, chief economist at MFR Inc.
…
Shapiro said that the data isn’t seasonally adjusted, and so the small decline in June came at a time when most of the year’s buyers are out looking for homes. “I wouldn’t get too carried away with the fact that you’ve seen a smaller pace of decline,” he added.
“It is the peak selling season that is being reported, so any downward pressure on prices would tend to be minimized during the period where demand is seasonally the strongest.”
More at link above
#11 Rich Oh Mr. Shapiro must be another un-patriotic Communist American, what with reporting the truth. Rediaperwipe will straighten him out.
Foreign spigot off for US consumers
What we are witnessing is the breakdown of the link between middle-class America and the global financial markets it has over-tapped across the last several decades. Fannie and Freddie were the support infrastructure connecting houses to capital market access. They have been caught with weak financials, swollen balance sheets and escalating default, just like the home owners they assist. The size of their retained mortgage portfolios is truly gigantic.
The extent of the firms’ guarantee commitments is global in scope. Sixty-six global central banks buy loans bundled and or backed with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae involvement. As of June 30, 2007 foreign entities and individuals held over $1.4 trillion in securities of US agencies such as Freddie and Fannie.
Fannie Mae’s June 2008 statement declares a gross mortgage portfolio of $750 billion and guarantees of mortgage backed securities and loans of $2.6 trillion. Freddie Mac’s June statement details a retained portfolio balance of $792 billion and a total mortgage portfolio balance of $2.2 trillion. These two giants have retained interest in over $1.5 trillion and guaranteed over $4.5 trillion in mortgages, mortgage backed securities and loans. There are $11 trillion in outstanding mortgage liabilities in the US.
The US housing market continues to melt down with dire consequence. In the seven years from 2001 through late 2007, household real estate value increased by $8.873 trillion to $22.495 trillion. It has since fallen by $426 billion. Many claim we are at or a near a bottom. These claims should be viewed with extreme weariness. The housing downturn is not over and it will take a while after it is over to judge the damage.
#7 rebonehead101x
You are the selfish one. Wanting people to put themselves in financial distress to buy a house/ Let’s suck all of the equity out of the economy to buy houses instead of using it for productive means like building factories, imrpoving our infrastructure, etc.
I think the jump from crayons to the keyboard was too much for you.
The formatting of this site works well on an iPhone.
HC
#7 rediaperwipe:You want people financially devastated just so you can buy a house. That’s sick, real sick.
Nope it is fee market capitalism as it’s best. As Mr. Kudlow says free market capitalism is the best path to prosperity.
The Villains of the Housing Crisis Are Denying All Responsibility
The elite Jackson Hole crew did not debate whether Greenspan was the greatest central banker of all time this year. The world is now facing the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression. At least, that is the assessment of Alan Greenspan. With house prices plunging, unemployment and inflation rates rising and banks failures mounting, Greenspan has a pretty good argument.
How did we get here? The centerpiece in this story is the United States allowed an $8 trillion housing bubble to grow unchecked. Between 1996 and 2006, house prices rose by more than 70 percent, after adjusting for inflation. In the previous century, from 1896 to 1996, house prices had just kept even with the overall rate of inflation.
==
The really tragic part of this story is there are no consequences. The same group of economists that led the economy into this catastrophe still has its hands on the wheel. Holding them accountable for their disastrous performance is simply not on the agenda.
Central bankers are not like dishwashers and custodians. They don’t get fired when they mess up on the job. They don’t even get a pay cut.
So, lets all hope the Jackson Hole crew had a good time at their summer retreat. We’ve paid a big price for it.
SG Says:
August 27th, 2008 at 7:57 am
Shailesh: It was good to meet you the other day. It would have been nice to talk a bit.
Unlocking your home equity
More people are using reverse mortgages to finance retirement, but the costs are steep.
“You are the selfish one.”
bairen,
I disagree. If he/she is overlevergaed, they are the f*cked one. Anybody, with a brain the size of a pea, realizes that this market will be in the s#it can for at least the next 3-4 years. After that, a long drawn out straight line, hopefully keeping up with inflation.
SG [17],
It’s troubling that we are relying on those same “villians” to get us out of the mess which they created.
Paulson’s `Bazooka’ Turned Out to Be Pea Shooter: Caroline Baum
“If you have a bazooka in your pocket and people know it, you probably won’t have to use it,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said at a July 15 Senate Banking Committee hearing.
Paulson was referring to the Treasury’s plan, subsequently enacted by Congress, to enable the government to lend to and inject capital into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two government- sponsored enterprises that own or guarantee more than $5 trillion of home mortgages.
The U.S. government needs $2 billion a day from overseas to finance its current account deficit — $731 billion in 2007 — so it’s not about to alienate foreign central banks, which are large holders of agency securities.
SG [17],
The main tent at Jackson Hole;
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fintag/2489610872/in/set-72157604060807926/
CF: Like wise. Will definitely chat more next time.
Fannie, Freddie pull out of New York subprime market
Mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have decided to pull out of the New York subprime market — a move criticized yesterday by area housing advocates.
Freddie Mac said it would not purchase mortgages defined as subprime home loans in the state as of Sept. 1 because of the “potential for heightened legal and business risk exposures.” In its decision, Fannie Mae restated its policy by saying “it will not purchase or securitize certain mortgage loans that meet the definition of ‘high-cost’ or ‘high-risk’ home loans.”
The law also sets in place requirements for lenders in foreclosure proceedings and makes it a crime to write mortgages for borrowers knowing they cannot repay them.
“In its decision, Fannie Mae restated its policy by saying “it will not purchase or securitize certain mortgage loans that meet the definition of ‘high-cost’ or ‘high-risk’ home loans.”
[25],
Monday morning quarterback.
We should’ve sent those Jackson Hole clowns straight to Black Rock City Nevada…..welcome to the Burning Man.
http://www.pleasuresean.com/BurningmanPhotoPage.html
Come to think of it, the Dimmycrats should have moved their Festival down from Denver!
Ok so their saying that it looks like a bottom is near. I know Grim is busy but how did the July numbers look and more so how does August look YOY? I’m not buying it.
Started thinking about all the different factors that are going to affect prices and came up with this list:
– Alt-A ARM resets increase foreclosures
– Continued inventory overhang
– Housing bailout legislation to go into effect
– Reduced number of mortgage lenders increases costs of borrowing
– Floating rate notes resets(per ChiFi) put pressure on banks to increase lending rates/fees
– Lingering sub-prime foreclosures hitting market
– More Americans reaching retirement and downsizing.
– Stagflation reduces available income/homebuyer confidence
Did I forget anything? Give me your thoughts on each point’s weight.
perhaps jon will fund sub prime in nj
if fannie and fred pull out
#7
Explain to me how prices have bottomed when you point out that mortgages will be difficult to get? Is everyone in NJ going to pay cash for their homes now?
Bk, 29
Did I forget anything? Give me your thoughts on each point’s weight.
Yeah, everyone is broke and in debt(no savings). My renters are barely scrapping money for rent, food, and energy cost. you can forget about entertainment and saving for a DP.
I miss Tim Russert.
KL
Anyone else having problems with the site today?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/sohken-becomes-latest-japan-home/story.aspx?guid=%7BAC5525F2%2DA369%2D4D05%2DA645%2D585D6B7BBEEC%7D
These guys are stuill going broke after 20 yrs. Chinese water torture due to politics is sickening.
#20 BC Bob,
I think being overleveraged used to be a problem but in this new era seems like walking away only causes a hit on your credit score.
Buying places you can’t afford to carry with zero down seems to me like a long term call option. If it takes off you can refi/sell and cash out. If it falls in value people simply walk away and the option expires. For many people it was a heads I win, tails you lose scenario.
What really bugs me is that the fiscally conservative ones who did not take part in this party are going to get stuck footing the bill through higer interest rates, job losses, even more massive budget deficits. Perhaps we were the foolish ones.
#32 make money,
Have you seen any for sale listings that would be cash flow positive rentals? Still seems like it is much cheaper to rent in the NJ towns we’re looking at.
Bairen#35
People like yourselves who actually put away $100K-$150K(20%)DP and another $20+K for closing with a 720+ FICO are very very rare.
Most people who rent are broke, they live month to month, make less than 60K a year(household) and 100% financing was the only way they can get in.
That door has been closed and there is no one moving up the ladder cause there is noone capable of buying the overpriced entry level home to give equity for the move up people.
We go back to traditional ways of housing were you save and buy instead of buying something you don’t really want long term and selling it in 4 years, pick up the equity and buy what you really want.
Believe me when I tell you, I have hundreds of renters and maybe 5 are putting money away and they tend to be Asians and Arabs who work 16 hour days and spent nothing. Their biggest expense is sending money back to where they came from to pay for their debts that they incurred to come here and take care of their extended families.
I don’t have a renter with a bachelors degree earned prior to 2004. All these so called professionals have extended themselves and bought cause they thought they were going to get priced out.
Having said that, the pool of potential homebuyers are people who called the bubble and refused to buy,(very very very small number) and people fresh out of college with no savings, college debt, a lifestyle of $300 jeans, $80 Ed Hardy t-shirts, Apple i-pods and i-phone and it’s Ok to spend it tonight cause I get paid on friday psychology.
Even if the economy is robust and we have no job losses and no foreclosures flooding the markets, the house prices have to collapse just based on above.
feel me?
Make,
Going for the gold? Be alert
Demand has spiked so much that many dealers are low on stock. If you’re an investor in the metal, pay attention, because some unusual crosscurrents are at work.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/GoingForTheGoldBeAlert.aspx
“That door has been closed and there is no one moving up the ladder”
make,
The ladder is now one way, down.
he [37],
There is a huge disconnect between the futures and cash markets.
Funny part is that if you know your fico score it is a sign you aren’t doing that well. Most people could care less about FICO as they pay their bills on time, put down well over 25% on their house and only take a loan when it is a cheap giveaway.
Anyhow on to more important things, my search for a used five passenger car to buy. 2008 CTS/STS and 2006 BMW 530xi are on top of list, I do hate the BMW cupholders, also someone mentioned audi 7 but don’t know much about audis, c and e class is out as wife thinks they look like a camry someone snuck a mercedes emblem on. A nice five passenger car that has some style, performance and a snooty name that is 1-3 years old is on my hit list. Friend gets them at the dealer auction for me so don’t worry I am still cheap, weird thing is he will buy it for me so I don’t get to see car until after I bought it so I have to be very clear on what I want and only buy one still under warranty, but to save 6-8 grand it is worth it. Any other suggestions?
“Any other suggestions?”
John,
Buy a moped.
Hearing “bottom” reminds me of “the sky is falling!”-been there done that, I’m waiting this one out… wake me when it’s time to buy.
[36] Make $$$- I feel you
John,
I doubt most peole put down over 25% on a house. I would think over 10% was probably unusual.
Why don’t you buy an H2. they seem to be on sale, and since you only drive 800 miles a year the gas cost would not bother you too much.
hurricanes
New orleans is staying center stage here.
(hurricane map)
http://tinyurl.com/62hwba
This situation is a good analogy for the economy. We know the storm is coming but we dont know how hard it will really hit.
On another note, this storm is likely to pass over 20% of the US oil refining capacity. Oil didnt really jump for georgia or other current issues, maybe will see movement for tGustav?
#36 make,
I feel you. I think this bust is going to be worse than I originaly thought. Of course I thought we should peak out in late 03 or early 2004.
I think most people are like mice running on a wheel trying to reach the cheese. Both don’t realize they are going nowhere and the cheese goes rotten.
17: If housing has to fall a total of 70% to return to norm, it’s going to be a long, ugly ride.
DL, make
The fall will be long and hard. Not because i say so, but because every bubble of this magnitude follows a similar pattern. As has been pointed out many times look at the 80’s 90’s housing bubbble. This one is worse because in the 80’s/90’s 0 down loans were rare and banks weren’t leverage to insane heights. The entire health of the economy wasnt predicated on nebulous paper housing wealth.
the sooner we accept the current situation the sooner we can work though it. let weak individuals and businesses fail and remove the detritus from the market.
“I think most people are like mice running on a wheel trying to reach the cheese. Both don’t realize they are going nowhere and the cheese goes rotten.”
bairen [45],
Who moved my cheese?
http://www.amazon.com/Moved-Cheese-Amazing-Deal-Change/dp/0399144463
If we get serious asset deflation (like residential and commercial real estate falling 50%), can this also trigger wage deflation so you are no better off? (You’re 80k job gets cut to 60k or you are out the door)
Can anyone give me information about MLS ID #2491599?
hehehe {37}
My man. Thanks for the heads up. I’m sitting tight waiting for Gold to blow up.
I encourage everyon eto holler at Peter to pick up some shiny stuff in Australia where they’ll store it for free.
does any one else have trouble accessing this site? it runs 1 out of 3 times for me.
Flipper in Edison, NJ
http://www.realtor.com/realestate/edison-nj-08820-1102625907/
Bought in July. 08 for 355K
@7 reinvestor X: Cry all you want. Even at today’s prices, I don’t need a mortgage, at all! Ha!
@43 bairen: I have an H2, and I love it. Actually bought two. Only truck I ever bought two of.
But for John, I suggest not an H2 but a Lexus LS 460l or 600hl. That’s what I have my eyes on next. Big, fast, reliable, easy.
I hope they reinterview everyone who called a bottom when the 3d quarter numbers come out
#53: Interesting. Completely renovated but no interior pictures? Kitchen renovated new granite countertops?
The renovated kitchens that consist of someone throwing cheap Home Depot granite countertops on the funky old cupboards are one of my personal rant-inducers. Do these idiots think I’m so blind I won’t notice the junky cabinets and the worn-out floors? duh . . .
Clot or other people in the business:
what is really happening with FHA loans? Are people easily qualifying for these (esp above $417k– at the new conforming level)?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=833505564&play=1
This guy sound slike a genious and is music to my ears.
received a listing for a summit foreclosure, or so it says in the listing remarks. sounds like it needs a lot [ton?] of work. 6BR, 3FB, 3 car garage, 668K.
albani: You have to decide whether sub-$700 gold will make you wet your pants. If not, please don’t let distract your chubby….
# 50 kred
1147 Washington Valley Road Bridgewater Twp.
OLP: 03/31/06 $550,000
Expired
DOM: 184
OLP: 04/06/07 $499,888
Price reduced $474,998
Withdrawn
DOM: 73
OLP: 6/18/07 $474,998
Price reduced $460,000
Withdrawn
DOM: 63
OLP: 08/21/07 $440,000
Price reduced $399,900
Expired
DOM: 184
OLP: 02/22/08 $399,900
Price reduced $379,900
Active, bid accepted
DOM: 187
To be clear, my comment is not a view, it is litmus test for risk preference.
Secondary, I too have problems accessing this site. It’s often down for me.
How in the hell is the collapse of the USD along with the G7 music to your hears? You’re happy to see our nation collapse?
This is the definition of terrorism. Guess what? Your nightmare will be the continued economic success of this nation. Get ready for many sleepless nights.
make money Says:
August 27th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=833505564&play=1
This guy sound slike a genious and is music to my ears.
does any one else have trouble accessing this site? it runs 1 out of 3 times for me.
Lots of downtime today, server keeps on crashing.
odrama does not look good on every issues in recent CNN poll.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/27/poll.security/index.html
was looking – Summit foreclosure.
I remember this listing. They tried listing this many times. I remember them walking this thing down from a million to about $800k. It is now MLS#2570548. Property is near some apt complexes and some commercial properties. Looked decent from outside, but pics of the inside were strange. It stated “possible kitchen” or “possible living room”. Made me think the place was a complete wreck.
Carter: Oil prices will fall as election gets closer
another wiseman’s prediction. but he has another famous quote on TheOne:
“I just don’t think he’s got yet the proven substance or experience to be the president.” Nov. 30, 2006, on “The Charlie Rose Show.”
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/27/carter-oil-prices-will-fall-as-election-gets-closer/
Flipper in Edison, NJ
http://www.realtor.com/realestate/edison-nj-08820-1102625907/
Bought in July. 08 for 355K
People are still dumb enough to do this?
reinvestor,
Everyone and their mother knows that I’m all in with Gold. I’m not the terrorist, I haven’t lowered rates to 1% and run the printing press 24 hours a day to print dollars. I haven’t passed the Stimulus package or bailed out Bear(actual good move), promised to spend unlimited amounts of money to bail out fannie and freddy.
Or spent trillions of dollars on a war we have no business fighting. Where are the WMD’s. Powers that be had a personal agenda with Sadam.
It’s the officials who make these policies that are the terrorist and I’ve this before, Why don’t we march to Washington and hang these SOB’s is behind me.
I’m just an average person who makes investments decision based on all of the above.
When I was bullish on RE and chased out of the bubble I was considered a smart american capitalist, what makes thi scountry great. right?
Just like it’s the speculators fault that oil is $118 a barrel.
You have a passion and I respect it, it’s just that you’re confused and wanna blame the symptoms and not the disease.
You have a passion and I respect it, it’s just that you’re confused and wanna blame the symptoms and not the disease.
Bravo!!! Well said.
How in the hell is the collapse of the USD along with the G7 music to your hears? You’re happy to see our nation collapse?
Just like when I was watching Titanic for the first time, I’m crying watching the ship go down but I will not play the violin while the damn ship is sinking.
Make Money= mini Jim Rogers=Euro Passport some cash, Euro’s, Swiss Francs, small amounts of Gold Coins, a Gun, and a small house in Mexico.
That place in Summit has been walked down from $1.695 million. Orginally listed in 2004.
It can now be yours for $668K. That’s 60% off OLP for those of you keeping score at home.
Gotta love the arrogance of 2004.
albani: You have to decide whether sub-$700 gold will make you wet your pants. If not, please don’t let distract your chubby….
I’m all in. Enough said.
We discussed this approx 1 year ago;
“Shipping containers provide home in a box”
http://realestate.msn.com/Buying/Article2.aspx?cp-documentid=9497461>1=35000
#29 BklynHawk
LIBOR – the one big variable outside the control of the US.
MJ – You have 2 H2 hummers? Really? Why?
I suppose it doesn’t matter, and probably too personal to ask … but are you clearing 7 figures or something?
Dumb question:
We all know what the problems are, and how we got here. Any ideas why nobody talks solutions? It seems like at some point, that should be a topic, no?
How come nobody has put together a 12-step plan?
Obviously it includes saving and being frugal, but what else?
Oh, im not talking about how WE can rebound … but the country as a whole.
A 2008 Lexus Jumbo SUV T-boned my sable last week so hard it broke by glove compartment and bent my frame on my Sable station wagon. I have Lexus fear. Actually, Lexus does not depreciate much so it is a good car to buy new a bad car to buy used. The tow truck took my sable to the junk yard yesterday and made it on to the truck under its own power, screw the japanese, they can kamakize an american car but I still drove it home, well covered in glass but nevertheless drove it home. I need the safe five passenger car cause folks in my town are nuts. If there was someone in my pasenger seat they would still be in hospital cause that door was jammed on the seat and the dashboard was bent in. Oh well those Lexus SIVs are built good, was something like a GX 470. My only regret is I did not have my wife’s Envoy XL as that would have been a fair fight, but we most likely both of us would have ended up in the junk yard.
MJ Says:
August 27th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
But for John, I suggest not an H2 but a Lexus LS 460l or 600hl. That’s what I have my eyes on next. Big, fast, reliable, easy.
#80
why is it always a 12 step plan? What if the plan requires 13 steps, or maybe only 8?
But I digress.
I can get a 2007 H2 at auction for 25K.
john,
since you become so emotional after hitting by a japenese car, i guess this brand is good for you:
http://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/hot_lists/car_shopping/small_suvs/2007_jeep_patriot_auto_shows
make money Says:
August 27th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
albani: You have to decide whether sub-$700 gold will make you wet your pants. If not, please don’t let distract your chubby….
I’m all in. Enough said.
albani: Do you play craps? I actually think that we would have a blast at the Borgata? Give me 4 or 5 Casino scotches and I make the paint fall off the ceiling…..
lookout below
That place in Summit has been walked down from $1.695 million. Orginally listed in 2004.
It can now be yours for $668K. That’s 60% off OLP for those of you keeping score at home.
Gotta love the arrogance of 2004.
That will be a comp that puts a hole in the train town/blue ribbon school theory. Somebody buy it at the bank’s list please so we can put an end to that fairy tale theory! It would be a lowball/comp killer headliner, if we ever got those lowballs/comp killers up again (digs at grim, jk dude I’m sure your a busy man!).
What? Why am I not surprised that you’re a bleeding heart dyed in the wool liberal? First off, the damn war was entirely justified to drain the damn terrorist swamp. So what if there were no WMD found. Saddam was a evil dictator and we’ve brought freedom to the Iraqis, or at least those who want it. The hell with the deadenders over there.
The damn interest rates have to be low to support investment and to rebuild the housing market and related structures after a concerted effort conducted by those like you to upend the real estate markets. Similarly, Fannie and Freddie have to be shored up for the same reasons and rather than support that, you want to pout about it and invest in a useless metal that’s good for little other than adornment. How do you feel now that commodities got beat up last week? You’re going to regret investing in gold. It’s not the thing to invest in.
You want to engage in sedition by marching on Washington huh? For what? Because people are doing their damn jobs to counter the concerted effort to upend this economy? I bet you think that the world is all benign and there’s no threat to the US from exogenous forces. Here we have Russia trying to jump bad with us and rather than wanting us to deal with the damn commies, you want to depose our elected officials.
You liberals have it all wrong. That’s why I don’t trust any of you and will never ever trust Omama and the rest of the dems. They don’t need to be anywhere near elective office. You are a terrorist.
make money Says:
August 27th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
reinvestor,
Everyone and their mother knows that I’m all in with Gold. I’m not the terrorist, I haven’t lowered rates to 1% and run the printing press 24 hours a day to print dollars. I haven’t passed the Stimulus package or bailed out Bear(actual good move), promised to spend unlimited amounts of money to bail out fannie and freddy.
Or spent trillions of dollars on a war we have no business fighting. Where are the WMD’s. Powers that be had a personal agenda with Sadam.
It’s the officials who make these policies that are the terrorist and I’ve this before, Why don’t we march to Washington and hang these SOB’s is behind me.
I’m just an average person who makes investments decision based on all of the above.
When I was bullish on RE and chased out of the bubble I was considered a smart american capitalist, what makes thi scountry great. right?
Just like it’s the speculators fault that oil is $118 a barrel.
You have a passion and I respect it, it’s just that you’re confused and wanna blame the symptoms and not the disease.
Guess what? You need to find a place to stand other than Make’s amen corner. Put a sock in it.
Hard Place Says:
August 27th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
You have a passion and I respect it, it’s just that you’re confused and wanna blame the symptoms and not the disease.
Bravo!!! Well said.
I love the jeep, when I was 23 I had a 76 CJ7 with the levi package, seats were made out of actual levi jeans with red tag and all and a six foot cb whip attenna and a 3 inch lift kit and push bars with a V8 and 3 spd manual. That thing was a monster, also had a 1988 Red Wrangler that I loved until it was stolen, no more jeeps for me. Once you are over 30 unless you are a lobsterman or fisherman you look kinda silly.
Did you know that in Popeye he had a little friend the jeep that could go anywhere and get popeye out of trouble. The GIs nicknamed the willeys the jeep cause it could also go anywhere like popeyes friend and the name stuck.
ReinvestorX:
I am proud that you used the word “sedition’ correctly in a sentence.
Hard place, yes the realtor we are anxious to get rid of called out of the blue today to let us know about of the great discount down from 1.6m.
john 89: Man of my own heart. Had a ’79 CJ5, straight six w/half back seats and lap belts. dashboard was just flat metal w/a huge speedometer. Had a low plowing gear which was very cool but could only go a few miles per hour in…sounded great though. No lift but rode way up.
John:
You should get the H2. Think of the amount of hookers that could turn tricks in the back of that thing. It will pay for itself!
Are you speaking to me, or would you like to? If you’d like to, I suggest that you begin by straightening out your damn attitude.
All Hype Says:
August 27th, 2008 at 5:29 pm
ReinvestorX:
I am proud that you used the word “sedition’ correctly in a sentence.
reinvestor X Says:
August 27th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
Are you speaking to me, or would you like to? If you’d like to, I suggest that you begin by straightening out your damn attitude.
________________________________________________
Yes, I am proud of you that you used the word “sedition” correctly. Nice that you studied and remembered a SAT word like that.
My attitude is doing just fine, thanks for asking.
50.5,
All Hype’s attitude is fine. He has his eye right on the 8 ball. That said, I know it’s troubling watching an asset decay, while there is absolutely nothing that can be done to prevent further declines. At least with stocks/commodities you can risk manage the trade. There is only one risk management parameter to follow in this market. Sell, at the market, NOW, it will only get worse.
The con men have created one hell of a mess. Now, it’s time for Mr Market to toss his hat into the ring. Unfortunately, Mr Market does not create, print, manipulate,lie, bark, collude, etc.. The unwinding is upon us. It will be long and deep. Suck it up, before you get sucked up.
check out the assessment vs asking price on this Montclair beauty, oh and of course, the property taxes.
http://new.gsmls.com/public/detailLst.do?mlsNum=2568880
Linky…
http://www.observer.com/2008/real-estate/last
I guess that renting vs. buying equation just got a little worse for sellers…
reinvestor x,
Guess what? You need to find a place to stand other than Make’s amen corner. Put a sock in it.
I certainly won’t be standing next to you, as you have dug yourself into a big hole.
Barbara,
Your link isn’t working.
Joey (28)-
Relax. Think of me as your eyes and ears on the ground in NJ. Believe me, the jumper called the NJ housing market can’t even see the bottom.
Neither can any of the thousands of delusional sellers out there, still trying to obtain a fantasy price for their depreciating homes and screaming at their listing agents for not using enough fairy dust in their ill-fated marketing campaigns.
bairen (34)-
“What really bugs me is that the fiscally conservative ones who did not take part in this party are going to get stuck footing the bill through higer interest rates, job losses, even more massive budget deficits. Perhaps we were the foolish ones.”
Everybody wonders when the bull market in housing will come back.
Me? I wonder when the bull market in integrity will come back. Been a much bigger drought in that than in any asset class I can think of.
Ready for fireworks?
this bubble may be a long slow one, but dont worry, we will see some fire works along the way.
consider:
there were slightly over 1000 bank failures during the S&L crisis 86-95 . The S&AL bailout cost 180 billion in 1990 dollars or 300 Billion in 2008 dollars. think about that 1000 banks going under cost us 300 billion. we are already hearing estimates of a 2 trillion $ price tag on the current mess and the FDIC is already talking about treasury assistance with only 100 banks onits official list!
Oh and the FED is burning cash like a drunken sailor!
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_9ZzZquaXrR8/SLWKmZ3K4BI/AAAAAAAABkM/jKckEVcC-5E/s1600-h/HowLongCanFedLast.jpg
Below is an email from a realtor friend responding to my question about credit tightening:
“Mortgages are still being awarded to those credit worthy buyers without a problem. I personally have my buyers double checked with our in-house mortgage just in case the other mortgage companies do not perform & go under while we are in contract waiting to close. Other sellers require their own mortgage company to verify. Sometimes, I let the other agent call our Financial Manager for peace of mind.
Our mortage preapproval process requires SS# & job history. Credit is run and verified.
Many companies have closed and the big firms have their share of problems. Unlike before, 100% financing is no longer available. First Time buyers are required at least 3% down. There are some govt programs that assist with closing costs or down payment if they qualify.”
My favorite part – “in case the other mortgage companies do not perform & go under while we are in contract waiting to close.”
skep (59)-
“…what is really happening with FHA loans? Are people easily qualifying for these (esp above $417k– at the new conforming level)?”
Good question, skep. In bullets:
– The jumbo (417K+) market is toast; both FHA and agency. In the case of FHA, the secondary market doesn’t want to touch them. Hence, you see lots of outright rejections, as well as add-ons, penalties and premiums.
– FHA’s own guidelines actually have no minimum FICO qualification standards. However, the secondary market has imposed its own, at about the 580 level. Another crimp that the secondary market has put on the pipeline involves FHA’s 203K “rehab” loans. Originators love to talk this up, but I have yet to see one correspondent who will actually underwrite one of these deals.
FHA is no more than another roadside bomb, spring-loaded by the gubmint to eventually detonate, spewing toxic fallout everywhere…and prompting another thinly-veiled taxpayer bailout.
continued.
i wager that thone of the big boys (Wachovia, WAMU?) will go down by Xmas and take out a substantial chunk of the FDIC holdings.
just to put things into perspective, the amount of write downs so far has been more then the total cost of the S&L debacle and we arent even talking about bailouts yet such as fannie, freddie, FDIC etc.
if you think the outcome of this is unimaginable, then you should watch more horror movies.
FHA: the original subprime.
Pardon my naivete, but how is a loan in which you put down 3%, then get the entire DP seller-concessioned back at the closing- and applied to closing costs, prepaids and points- anything other than subprime, 100% financing?
Add to this troubling little scenario the fact that anybody using one of these loans is probably losing at least 10% equity- on paper- within the first year of ownership, and you’ve just set up 2005 redux.
Good times.
chi (85)-
“albani: Do you play craps? I actually think that we would have a blast at the Borgata? Give me 4 or 5 Casino scotches and I make the paint fall off the ceiling…..”
I have been known to enjoy an occasional craps game. I especially enjoy not rolling the dice against a concrete wall.
If you ever head toward the Borgata, give me a shout. I’d love to tag along. These days, we’d also have the whole place to ourselves.
kettle1 Says:
August 27th, 2008 at 10:40 pm
continued. i wager that thone of the big boys (Wachovia, WAMU?) will go down by Xmas and take out a substantial chunk of the FDIC holdings. just to put things into perspective, the amount of write downs so far has been more then the total cost of the S&L debacle and we arent even talking about bailouts yet such as fannie, freddie, FDIC etc.
ket: I hate to sound flippant, but SO WHAT? I get the feeling that some people are going to find themselves flat-footed at the wrong time…….read: stop lacing your tea leaves with arsenic….
“These days, we’d also have the whole place to ourselves.”
Clot, don’t be so sure. I was down in New Orleans about two months ago for business and I popped into a casino to play a little blackjack. This was a Tuesday at around 2 am, the place was packed to the gills. There was a convention in town, but it was some sort of farming equipment show, not one where I would expect a lot of high rollers. And did I mention that this was New Orleans? I wonder how much of that FEMA cash was funneled right into Harrahs.
Even when destitute, people seem to find the means to get their gamble on.
Clotpoll Says:
August 27th, 2008 at 10:48 pm
If you ever head toward the Borgata, give me a shout. I’d love to tag along. These days, we’d also have the whole place to ourselves.
clot: two i-bankers I know tried to book a Friday room at the Water Club and then the Borgata at the last minute two weeks ago…completely sold out. I mean they were willing to pay rack. They ended up using the Sheraton with points…
http://www.thewaterclubatborgata.com/
clot:
albani and me will make be making like cursed berserkers at the tables….however, the real fireworks start when clot interrupts Bobby’s little blow-party at 2AM here….
http://theborgata.com/Main.cfm?Category_1=4000&Category_2=4100&Category_3=4160
albani and I
Clotpoll Says:
August 27th, 2008 at 10:48 pm
chi (85)- I have been known to enjoy an occasional craps game. I especially enjoy not rolling the dice against a concrete wall.
You are the Nathan Detroit of Real Estate…good ‘ol reliable….
ReTard X
Are you speaking to me, or would you like to? If you’d like to, I suggest that you begin by straightening out your damn attitude.
Lighten up, Francis.
chi (112)-
Boy, are you a buzzkill.
That little shit couldn’t make a proper cheese omelet.
Clotpoll Says:
August 27th, 2008 at 11:04 pm
chi (112)- Boy, are you a buzzkill.
That little shit couldn’t make a proper cheese omelet.
Now we have to imagine you with serious beer muscles…
Looks like I’m going to have my kids sleeping on top of my kids for awhile yet. You guys have scared me straight. Money stays in the banks. And by banks I mean, WaMu, Wachovia, Citi and Bank of America. Oh wait……
wamu wachovia most likely would go way of the Bear, wipe out commonshareholders and arrange shot gun marriage, who cares. chase wants wamu trouble is it wants it for free with the govt taking on the bad stuff.
If I’m underwater on my mortgage, does it make any sense at all (I’m not trying to be funny) doing renovations? I’m thinking about the kitchen and possibly converting the attic to a master suite.
Pros and cons???
Friend at WAMU said that his branch failed their audit by less than a point (seems a few of them did) …was talking to his manager on the phone really late last night. He asked me for job leads…
Mentioned that in additional to credit problems they are suffering from the Starbucks syndrome…
@80 laughing all the way: Bought them in serial. Own one at the moment.
@John: The reason why I drive an H2 is basically because of the all the soccer moms in Explorers, and because of all the kids in old econo-cars with fat mufflers: When they drive into me, I’ll be fine!
re: MLSID# 2570548, the foreclosure in summit.
i live next door to this place. it is a mess. it’s been on the market since i’ve lived here (about 2 years), and my neighbors, who’ve been there 30+ years, have told me all kinds of stories. first off, the people who last owned the home tried to rent out rooms, with disastrous results (apparently there were several incidents where the cops had to be called because of too much parying, and finally things had to be settled in court). then after it was foreclosed on, the owners messed up all the wiring and took out the kitchen appliances and lighting fixtures and everything. also, the house has leaks… i know because everytime it rains there’s water coming out of that place for days. it hasn’t been lived in for years, so who knows what pipes might have burst in the winters? it’s been listed with at least 4 different realtors since i’ve been here. it’s a shame because the house itself looks like it was really nice at one point, but i know i wouldn’t want to get into that mess. also, the last owners ripped out the backyard, covered it in asphalt, and put in a three car garage which is just ridiculous considering the size of the lot.
i say good luck to whoever buys that place, and i hope they have a lot of cash on hand to make the repairs they’ll need. it sure as hell isn’t going to be me… at least not for that price.