From Reuters:
Coldwell sets 10-day price cuts to spur home sales
One of the largest U.S. real estate brokerages on Monday said it is asking its sellers to cut listing prices by as much as 10 percent to kick-start U.S. home sales in a market plagued by a two-year price slump and near-record unsold supply.
Coldwell Banker Real Estate said some 25,000 sellers listing homes with its brokers will cut prices during its first national, 10-day sales event starting on Friday that aims to lure potential buyers off the sidelines of the worst housing market since the Great Depression.
Most owners still are unrealistic when pricing their homes, and a reduction of 10 percent or less would push the properties “over the tipping point to a sale,” according to Coldwell Banker, which is based in Parsipanny, New Jersey, and is part of Realogy Corp.
“The main driver is to bring buyers and sellers together and to increase the activity in the marketplace,” Jim Gillespie, president and chief executive officer of Coldwell Banker, said in an interview.
…
Many sellers have been reluctant to slash asking prices, however, and face competition from the large number of foreclosed homes on the market at discounted prices.A recent Coldwell Banker survey found that more than half of the real estate agents said listing prices in their market are too high to attract qualified buyers. Brokers, however, believe that, depending on the market, a price cut of up to 10 percent will be enough to stoke sales.
Kathryn Taylor is one seller who hopes that’s the case.
“The economy. No movement for our home, or even any interest, just because people are scared,” she said, explaining her decision to cut the asking price on her parents’ home in Silver Spring, Maryland, by 10 percent for 10 days.
The two master-bedroom, two-bathroom home in an over-55 community was listed in May at $458,000, undercutting several nearby sellers of the same model.
“This is the first time we’re lowering it, and we really didn’t want to do that because we listed it to sell,” she said. “We knew things were tough, but the home is a really desirable unit in a neighborhood that rarely has anything come open so we didn’t think it would have any problems selling.”
…
Taylor, a retired government employee, is getting “more antsy” about selling. Her father passed away last year and her mother is moving to a nursing home that costs $9,000 each month.With stock wealth being roiled, “it’s getting more and more important to keep her afloat by selling this house,” she said of her mother.
Sellers can opt to keep their asking prices lower after the 10-day sale, according to Coldwell Banker.
First!
Appeals Courts working weekends?
Heck whenever I get locked up I usually spend the rest of the weekend in the tombs throwing bones to make cab fare to get back mto the island.(Channeling John)
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/appeals-court-overturns-citi-wachovia-exclusivity/story.aspx?guid=D74CD75C-8F6A-4BC4-989A-D9B20C26FC5B&dist=SecMostRead
From the New York Times:
New Jersey Offers a Preview of Possible Economic Woes to Come
After several tumultuous weeks on Wall Street, New York City seems increasingly likely to fall into recession, many economists and analysts say. To get a sense of what that might look like, one need only cross the Hudson River.
New Jersey’s economy has already slipped into reverse. Its biggest employers have stopped hiring, and some have started firing. Its unemployment rate is rising fast, and the values of its houses are falling even faster. The state government is grappling with a projected budget shortfall of $1.7 billion, and some of its most affluent counties and towns are reducing services as tax revenue declines.
A state filled with suburbs, it has been struggling with the same problems that high fuel prices and a crumbling housing market have posed to broad swaths of the country. But its woes have been compounded by a series of cutbacks and mergers among the big drug-making companies that have formed one of the state’s economic pillars. Now state and local officials are worrying about the wholesale restructuring of the financial services industry, which provides tens of thousands of high-paying jobs to New Jersey residents who commute to New York City and employs about 260,000 others in bank offices in Jersey City and on corporate campuses around the state.
“On Main Street, a recession has long ago hit,” Gov. Jon S. Corzine said after meeting with a group of business leaders last week. “Our economy has a very strong bias toward the success of financial services, so that means that we are vulnerable.”
BC – Saw over the weekend (or last week) that you were thinking about buying soon.
Is this a move in the anticipation of skyrocketing interest rates in late 2009?
Not looking for a ‘bottom’ but looking for the best of both worlds (who isn’t?) – getting something for 100k off when the next wave of resets hit, AND avoiding getting a place with an interest rate over 7%.
probably doesn’t exist … but we’re in no rush.
adding forclosure sale prices to a CMA is just around the corner
adding forclosure sale prices to a CMA is just around the corner
Mark to market?
Foreclosure sales have been a part of CMA’s for over a year in California.
“BC – Saw over the weekend (or last week) that you were thinking about buying soon.”
LATW [4],
I don’t know if I am buying. However, I have put my boots on. I kind of like it. I go to an open house and I am the only party visiting. When I sold there were 20 buyers for one property. Now it seems like there are 20 sellers, maybe more, chasing one qualified buyer. Yes, the buying environment has become more friendly. That said, only at a huge, huge discount from peak.
“by as much as 10 percent”
Maybe I’ll put my boots back in the closet.
6 Grim is that a trick question? thought marking to market wasn’t allowed…
“This is the first time we’re lowering it, and we really didn’t want to do that because we listed it to sell,”
Another blackbox, marked to an internal assumption.
The Fed is increasing the size of the TAF to $150b as of today.
Seriously Bernanke, just stop, its not working.
You can let it go. Its going to go no matter what you do, why make things worse?
HMMM? You mean throwing a $700B bucket of water, trying to extinguish a raging inferno, will not do the trick. What’s next?
LONDON (MarketWatch) — Lending conditions remained tight in short-term money markets Monday, despite the passage Friday of a $700 billion U.S. bank bailout plan. The cost of overnight borrowing in dollars rose Monday, with the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, jumping to 2.36875% from 1.99625% Friday, news reports said. Overnight sterling Libor rose to 5.08125% from 5% Friday, while euro Libor rose to 4.27375% from 4.105%. Other key short-term dollar borrowing rates eased but remained elevated, reports said, with one-month dollar Libor falling to 4.0925% from 4.11% Friday, and three-month dollar Libor slipping to 4.28875% from 4.33375% Friday.
Ladies and gentleman,
Our “SOFT LANDING” is turning into a major world recession……hold out and DON’T BUY A HOUSE…..UNLESS YOU WANT TO LOSE YOUR DOWN PAYMENT!!
From Bloomberg:
FHA Takes on Subprime, Alt-A Loans Shunned by Private Lenders
The Federal Housing Administration has grown so large that by the end of the year it will guarantee mortgages for three in 10 U.S. borrowers, many of whom have bad credit or loans that required no verification of income.
Congress wants FHA to do more. The Hope for Homeowners program, unveiled Oct. 1, authorizes the agency, part of the cabinet-level Department of Housing and Urban Development, to guarantee up to $300 billion of 30-year, fixed rate home loans for struggling borrowers over the next three years. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 400,000 households will get FHA- insured loans and about one-third of those will fall behind again on their new loans.
Hope for Homeowners is one way the U.S. government is trying to prevent further losses in the worst housing decline since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The rewritten mortgages may not be enough to stem rising defaults, said David Olson, a 40-year veteran of the U.S. mortgage industry.
“FHA has completely replaced subprime and Alt-A,” said Olson, former director of market research at Freddie Mac, the second-biggest mortgage buyer, who now runs Wholesale Access Mortgage Research & Consulting Inc. in Columbia, Maryland. “I hope it’s not setting them up for another crackup. There have been so many crackups.”
Subprime mortgages are given to people with bad or limited credit histories. Alt-A home loans typically require little or no documentation of a borrower’s income.
All we need is 50- 75 bps, tax write off for bank losses on fannie/freddie pref securities and a new president. The market hates uncertainty, the borrow short lend long model needs a fix and small banks need to recover some of that fannie/freddie losses. Europe and Asia are going to feel out painn, in the last six months as Merril, Lehman, AIG, Soveign, CIT, Citi, NCC and hedge funds, etc. were selling CDOs and subprime slop at what we thought were firesale prices who do you think was buying them? A lot of asia and european countries have prudent lending practices but if the investment side of house bought this slop at 40 cents on the dollar and it is now worth 20 cents on the dollar they lost half their investment just in the third quarter.
Why bother lowering asking prices now? BofA/Countrywide will rewrite 400k loans so people can stay in their homes. Other banks will soon follow suit and inflated home values will be propped up. The people who bought more than they could afford win, current homeowners who live in their still overinflated homes win and the only losers are the ones who “did the right thing” and waited until they had enough for 20% down to get in. Sucker renters.
Oh wait, that’s me. Sure, foreclosures will continue to bring prices down but we were on the verge of getting back to rational prices quickly and now we are back to a snails pace. What a loser I am.
“The market hates uncertainty”
John,
Thanks. I’ll have to remember that one.
I thought that uncertainty was castaway on Friday, with the passage of the stroke job. You seemed to be whacking it against the wall.
‘Sellers Can opt to keep their prices lower after the 10 day sales event’
Hahaha….if you do not buy I will be forced to raise my price back to where it was not selling, so there!
DJ Fed: Will Begin Paying Interest On Banks’ Balances – THIS WAS ALSO ON MY WISH LIST
“The people who bought more than they could afford win, current homeowners who live in their still overinflated homes win”
[17],
Another brain surgeon joins the blog.
The dolts bought a free call. That call has expired worthless. You can rewrite all the loans you want. The bottom line, the majority will not continue to pay for an asset that is underwater. They will not throw money into the upkeep of a house, while the asset contines to decay. It’s getting close to X-Mas, jingle mail.
Fed Boosts Cash Auctions to $900 Billion, May Do More (Update1)
By Scott Lanman
Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve will double its auctions of cash to banks to as much as $900 billion and is considering further steps to unfreeze short-term lending markets as the credit crunch deepens.
“The Federal Reserve stands ready to take additional measures as necessary to foster liquid money-market conditions,” the central bank said in a statement released in Washington today. Fed and Treasury officials are “consulting with market participants on ways to provide additional support for term unsecured funding markets,” the statement said.
As part of today’s steps, the Fed will increase its auctions under the 28-day and 84-day Term Auction Facility operations to $150 billion each. The two forward TAF auctions in November will be increased to $150 billion each, the Fed said.
The central bank will also begin paying interest on bank reserves. Payments on required reserves will be made at the average targeted federal funds rate established by the Federal Open Market Committee over each reserve maintenance period less 10 basis points.
The Fed gained the authority to pay interest on reserves under the $700 billion financial-rescue legislation approved last week.
In a separate statement, the U.S. Treasury said it is considering changes to its debt issuance, including a reintroduction of three-year notes. Any changes will be released at the department’s quarterly refunding announcement Nov. 5.
The Treasury also said today that some cash-management bills may be “longer-dated.” The expansion in debt sales is needed to “allow Treasury to adequately respond to the near-term increase in borrowing requirements,” the department said in the statement released in Washington.
Treasury officials last month started a special program of bill auctions to help the Fed expand its balance sheet.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ad_vdapfkxao&refer=home
“FED MAY DO MORE”
no, stop don’t do anything! uncle!
So if the market goes down 300-ish today, how bad will it be Wednesday when short selling resumes?
SKF to 175?
Actually, all my equities are in my 401K and I like downperiods as I dollar cost average in. I kept my job from 1988-1994 and from 2001 to 2004 and my 401k had good pops afterwards. One of my brother in laws does some IT mumbo jumb and seems to lose his job every recession so his 401K is a nightmare, he is only working when economy is good so he is always buying high in his 401K.
I think the bail out was good, but will take at least two months to start working, in the meanwhile banks need to keep bombarding the Fed and Treasury for more and more breaks. If they get them all, regardless of the economy and housing this will set them up for a great 2009 (for the surviviors), plus compared to 2008 they will look good. The non banks that had an ok 2008 when they get their credit shut off and customers canceling orders in 2009 left and right will look terrible compared to 2008 numbers and the money flow will move back to financials. You can’t sit on the sidelines once the fed gives us a suprise “75bp” rate cut and the gov backstop money markets and the EU fixes LIBOR in a coordinated effort. When people wake up and see ING and HSBC direct paying 1% dividend paying stocks, munis and investment grade bonds will look good again.
If we get deflation all bonds will look great. One of the reasons you get interest is the money you lent the company will be worth less when you get it back years in the future due to inflation. However, in deflation the money you get back in future is worth more than now and you still get interest. Like taking a girl on a first date and she pays and you still get lucky. All upside.
10 bucks the DOW is below 10000, 20 bucks says the Smells kid picks his nose
It is groundhog day again at the ol’ blog…only today the groundhog is in the sites of a hungry hunter living off the land.
#17 LEHLOSER: I don’t think so. It is one thing of they change the interest rate on these mtgs, or lenghten the term, but if they knock off chunks of principal on mtgs, than that will kill the housing market.
No contract will we worth the paper it is written on, and why would any one want to buy a home at a given price, knowing that theoretically the owner of the house next door could have 25,50,100K knocked off his mtg.
If this happens, I will factor that in on any house I bid on, I am now going to bid another 10 to 15% less than I would have as an insurance premium against this mtg writeoff nonsense.
50& off 2005 peak!!!
http://wcbstv.com/local/carvel.store.close.2.833159.html
Another example of the frozen credit markets
[17],
Rational prices, with today’s events, are 1998. Sure hope your couch is comfortable.
Another example of the frozen credit markets
I hope the pun was intended
News flash: Pope says derivatives traders are going to hell.
#16 John: You are getting soft.
a $450,000 house in R.E. would only go for $225,000 then
Deflation
A general decline in prices, often caused by a reduction in the supply of money or credit. Deflation can be caused also by a decrease in government, personal or investment spending. The opposite of inflation, deflation has the side effect of increased unemployment since there is a lower level of demand in the economy, which can lead to an economic depression.
Declining prices, if they persist, generally create a vicious spiral of negatives such as falling profits, closing factories, shrinking employment and incomes, and increasing defaults on loans by companies and individuals. To counter deflation, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) can use monetary policy to increase the money supply and deliberately induce rising prices, causing inflation. Rising prices provide an essential lubricant for any sustained recovery because businesses increase profits and take some of the depressive pressures off wages and debtors of every kind.
LATW Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 8:48 am
So if the market goes down 300-ish today, how bad will it be Wednesday when short selling resumes?
SKF to 175?
latw: there are people who are a lot smarter than you who stare at their screens all day and have computer programs set up……there were some Star Trek references over the weekend. Think of yourself as the USS Excalibur and your competitors are Richard Daystrom’s M-5….
http://memory-alpha.org/en/wiki/The_Ultimate_Computer_%28episode%29
I ain’t getting soft, but if you look at homebuilder stocks the first stocks to get hit they have actually held up pretty good the last few weeks. Banks are next in line to flatline. $100 stocks like Apple that sell one trick Ipods and overpriced flash and shiny PCs are going to take the next hits. I would guess 50% of Apple customers are between 12-22 and they go to mommy and daddy for the money. Mommy and Daddy ain’t giving them the money going forward, goodbye 100 a share.
tbw [34],
If 450K was peak, you’re on the money.
#34 tbw: Residents in RE are I believe are finally realizing the party is over.
There are at least 10 listings in town under 400K (long time local realtors had told me this would never happen again), and another 10 or so listed in the low 400K’s all simply rotting on the market month after month. ( 5 or 6 bank owned properties too)
Lots of McMansins’s too are available if you so desire. Hurry!!! Bring your checkbook. This is a great time to buy!!!
Here’s a tip for you traders: Starting in 2011, basis reporting is the law. It has differing provisions and start dates depending on the security or how acquired, but in general, it is effective starting 1/1/11 for securities acquired after that date.
So you have just over 2 years to acquire securities safe in the knowledge that the broker won’t be reporting basis to the Feds.
50% off peak? Man… I’d have to throw you guys a catered affair if that ever happened. I’d be happy with 25% off peak.
And isn’t it interesting that a realtor is “asking” its “clients” to reduce 10% across the board! BWAHHHAAA!!! I’m sorry but there is some sweet, sadistic enjoyment I’m getting from this and will probably burn for it but hey…. the acted like a bunch of wh*res so now they’re wondering why they got a disease. And what about all these buyers that purchased somewhere in 2005/2006? They’ve got to be f*cking livid right now!
“And what about all these buyers that purchased somewhere in 2005/2006?”
Gary,
They’re running, trying to catch Homer Jones.
The EU is crumbling, they are circling the wagon.
tbw: also, there is a ranch house on Valley road (an estate – tidy house, but needs updating) apparently the two big builders in town are not interested in that or any other new projects.
#41 gary: I’d be happy with 25% off peak.
That is already a given.
BC Bob,
Seriously, these buyers from 2005/2006 must be freaking out!!
And my first memory of the Giants was Tarkenton to Homer Jones!
It is getting very weak out there, summer 2007 I went to look at a nice 5 bedroom 80×100 colonial in a good neighborhood, prices were already down and they were asking 1.05 million. House was 35 years old and orignial owner who was retiring never did nothing to it. Had three 1973 bathrooms and a 1973 kitchen that was super ugly, one was orange head to toe and the kids bedrooms were still all painted in 70’s colors with “levels built in and platform beds” and shag carpets everwhere and lots of wood paneling . On the same block their was a similar house for sale but completely redone on sale for 1.3 million. Well the all orginal house guy kept dropping prices weekly and sold in fall of 1997 for 990K, the renovated one got pulled from market as owner did not get price and reappeared last week for 990K!!!!! So in the space of 13 months a mint condition house can be bought for the price of a train wreck of a house 13 months earlier. That is a huge swing.
3b,
WHEN!!! :)
#44 tbw: I guess they are finally waking up with all the McMansions that are availale for sale.
Oh and by the way, the condos on KKR are all still for sale
#46 gary:Seriously, these buyers from 2005/2006 must be freaking out!!
And the buyers form 2003 and 2004 are right behind them.
The Fed is sending all 2005 and 2006 buyers a rubber bit to bite down on and a bottle of KY. He will do his best to make it less painful but it will still hurt. BoA is only modfying rates and terms of mortgage right now not principal. Kinda like car dealer sells you a lemon car that is overpriced and says you can pay if off in four years instead of three. WHOO WHOO
“Seriously, these buyers from 2005/2006 must be freaking out!!”
Gary,
Picture Linda Blair, Exorcist. Another thought, picture Gary, after Paterson Plank Joe to the Czonk.
and a bottle of KY
Was this the “essential lubricant” referenced in your post at #35?
“This is the first time we’re lowering it, and we really didn’t want to do that because we listed it to sell,” she said. “We knew things were tough, but the home is a really desirable unit in a neighborhood that rarely has anything come open so we didn’t think it would have any problems selling.”
I love it when people try to justify their asking prices.
It’s only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.
Oh yea, and whenever I hear “unit” I just don’t think of a desirable home. When your neighbor is a mere 6 inches away (between 2 sheets of drywall and a 2×4), it’s not desirable.
grim (15)-
I will now reiterate my call that FHA has been primed to the max and spring-loaded to detonate as DC’s next bankruptcy/bailout vehicle. The crap they’ve been doing for the past year and the garbage they’re taking on now makes Golden West’s portfolio look like AAA.
When FHA blows, say bye-bye to even the thought of a covered bond market developing in the place of securitization. Mortgage lending will go back to the Stone Ages.
Pretty soon, you’ll need 30-35% down, a 720+ FICO and strong buttocks to even sniff the idea of a loan.
There’s your long walk home.
BC Bob,
Everytime I see Herman Edwards, I go into convulsions! LOL
It’s only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.
But the Beckett says my Robin Yount rookie card is worth 25 bucks, what do you mean you’ll only give me five?
The Lost Decade
JB,
Hold on to that shiny stuff.
Another aspect of home ownership, you can’t choose your neighbors. It is kind of hard to determine if the house you are buying is located next door to a horses a$$. Unfortunately, you will be stuck next to this neighbor or neighbors for many years.
Cheery thought for the day: Are a portion of the layoffs we have seen, and will see, prompted by concerns about O and the Dems?
It occurs to me that layoffs in this downturn will be motivated by more than just known costs but potential future ones. Rationally, we must accept that business leaders are aware that once O gets in, the Dems will push through measures to make it harder and more costly to cut staff, and increase the costs for current staff. Revisions to the WARN Act, increased “rights” for terminated employees that allege all manner of new “discriminations” (including associational discrimination–workers are alleging improper firing because the people they associate with are members of protected classes), increased health care and COBRA costs, increased pension costs, and new union-enabling legislation.
Perusing past failed legislation and what I would call “wish lists” for democrats suggest that this storm of new employee protections is possible, resulting in more of a French style system. Thus, it would behoove business leaders to cut to the bone before the Dems get in to avoid incurring higher costs later.
Also factoring in are new tax measures, some already implemented, that make it harder on foreign companies employing in the U.S. Add the uncertainty about trade and those measures yet unpassed and it would seem better to take those jobs offshore now.
Thus, if you are a manager and you know (1) your cost for labor will increase, and (2) it will be more costly to fire someone later, what do you think will happen. Of course, this is the tail wagging the dog in some respects, and I can’t even know, let alone quantify, whether employers are motivated to cut more than they would otherwise, but presently in this country, some employers pay overtime rather than hire new people simply because of the additional costs of new hires. Still, just as we are aware that some stock selling earlier this year was attributed to profit-taking because of the prospect of total dem control, is it too farfetched to imagine that a percentage of people losing their jobs will lose them simply because the Dems are coming?
And that is my cheery observation for the day.
If you bought a house in 2005 at the height of the market but can afford the payment, why would you stop paying?
Bank of America blows billions on Countrywide litigation
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) badly overpaid for Countrywide Financial — if the company’s equity was worth anything at all.
“There’s your long walk home.”
Clot,
It’s gonna be a long, long walk home.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PwLfgH6D_EA
Look close, you may see me?
OK all you rocket scientists here. How do I bring a rewritten mortgage to a seller as a comp? If someone bought in 2005 for 500 with no money down and a bank chops 100 off the principal owed, how does that get recorded as a new value for the home? What do I bring to the table to represent fair market value if its not a recent sale?
Go ahead and mock me, I didn’t know this site had a “no novice” rule.
John (16)-
Yet Paulson is dying to pay .70 to .80 for the same crap…and when he does so, everything will magically be okay?
Or, 50 to 75 bps off the rate? Yeah, that’s the ticket. Hey, why doesn’t Bergabe spare us the suspense and just take the damn thing to 0? Then I can eat my breakfast sushi in peace. Rate cuts are like transfusing blood into a patient who’s having a brain hemorrhage…just feeding more juice into the unsolved problem.
And, yes, the certainty of a new president will surely help. How many days after the inauguration will it be before he whips out his Soci@list Workers’ Party card and starts bleeding dry what’s left of the middle class?
This thing is going to black. Fast.
Finally the Realtors are learning to accept that it’s transactions not high prices that put food on their plate.
Pom-poming the real estate market has backfired on them.
The best thing NAR can do for their people is to drum some sense into the sellers to get the transaction volume kick started again.
Since when is the bidder’s job proving comps?
Make your bid and move on to door number two.
is it too farfetched to imagine that a percentage of people losing their jobs will lose them simply because the Dems are coming?
When the market goes down, Kudlow and Limbaugh say the same thing. When it goes up, McCain made a good speech.
Some tired crap, no?
And that is my cheery observation for the day.
Riveting.
Really, just make a bid, you do not have to justify it. If they do not accept, there are tons of other houses out there.
is it too farfetched to imagine that a percentage of people losing their jobs will lose them simply because the Dems are coming?
When the market goes down, Kudlow and and the Fox hacks say the same thing. When it goes up, McCain made a good speech.
Some tired idiotic garbage, no?
And that is my cheery observation for the day.
Riveting.
“how does that get recorded as a new value for the home?”
[65],
I’m sorry, I can’t.
I’ll let someone else hit that 86 mile/hr meatball, that you threw right down the heart of the plate.
is it too farfetched to imagine that a percentage of people losing their jobs will lose them simply because the Dems are coming?
When the market goes down, Kudlow and and the Fox hacks say the same thing. When it goes up, the Maverick made a good speech.
Some tired idiotic garbage, no?
And that is my cheery observation for the day.
Riveting.
#65 LEH: That is my point, you may not know, but the fact that it could happen, should IMO influence your bid.
In other words bid lower because of this unknown.
BC Bob,
The 10% reduction is only for 10 days. Better buy now or you’ll be priced out forever. :)
Wow, We are nearing 10K much faster then I ever imagined.
DOW 8000 seems next one to conquer.
Is that forgiven mortgage principal amounts taxable income? That would be sweet, bank takes loss and fed gets back 30% of loss in taxes then fed loans money back to bank with interest.
Dow dangerously close to dipping under 10k
9:59 – 10,006
Didn’t Weichert try this game last year?
I see this…..it is music to my ears….
Broken Wall Street Means Merrill Model Succumbs to Independents
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aiFWpgfJ82b8&refer=us
latw: there are people who are a lot smarter than you who stare at their screens all day and have computer programs set up……there were some Star Trek references over the weekend. Think of yourself as the USS Excalibur and your competitors are Richard Daystrom’s M-5….
http://memory-alpha.org/en/wiki/The_Ultimate_Computer_%28episode%29
ChiFi – I never once have professed to knowing a damn thing about the markets and SKF (which i had never heard of until two months ago, when i bought it and made a killing).
I didn’t take once finance course in college. I’m in the media, and this message board is been a great lesson in the economy.
BC (21)-
I think the newbies are migrating here from your aforementioned Oprah and Access Hollywood.
Is this necessarily a good thing?
NY T article posted in 3
The state government is grappling with a projected budget shortfall of $1.7 billion, and some of its most affluent counties and towns are reducing services as tax revenue declines.
Call me crazy, but I’m hoping the state goes BK. That way we shock some change into the system. Any attempt at increasing taxes more will only cause taxpayers to get angry and set the stage for a revolt. We need change in this state and bad. A financial crisis is the cure for this states disease.
John (25)-
“I think the bail out was good, but will take at least two months to start working, in the meanwhile banks need to keep bombarding the Fed and Treasury for more and more breaks.”
John, what’s your definition of “working”? When a national network of food banks and soup kitchens is fully operational?
nine handle on the dow
#82 Clot: Peter Schiff, says it will be at least 6 months before we see any kind of response to the bailout.
dipped under 10k
#81 hardplace: I find it funny that taxpayers will get angry. How can they? The biggest expense for most people is property taxes.
It was the people that kept voting yes to out of control school budgets,and school renovation and construction referendums that has led in may cases to the high property taxes in many towns.
It’s odd. Way back in late `05 I started to pay attention to the housing market. It had always been somewhere on my radar, but I wasn’t in a position to buy so it was never more than, “wow, that’s expensive”.
But in `05 I had some cash and was starting to look for a place and was absolutely floored. I had no idea how people were affording such prices.
I used to work as a mortgage processor so I had a very good idea of how much income it took to afford a $420k house. I was just stumped. Most of the places I was looking at were blue collar towns. The type of town with lots of 2 or 3 bedroom houses, work vans in the driveway and ok schools. Nothing too fancy, no pretensions, just working middle-class America. They were completely unaffordable.
After a few months of being stumped I started to research how were they doing it? How was a forklift mechanic with a wife who was a waitress getting a mortgage for that much? That’s where I found option ARMs and Neg-Am Arms and 51% back-end ratios. Then I found out what banks were doing with these loans once they had them; sliced and diced and all passed under a magic wand and presto they’re as good as A paper.
In the course of about 2 days of heavy web research the whole of the beast was made apparent. There was lots of it I didn’t understand, some of it I still don’t, but what I did get chilled me deep down and made me feel hollow. My first reaction, that initial gut response was, “We’re doomed, the whole thing is a complete house of cards, a game of hot potato and there’s no one left”.
Of course I suppressed that. I moderated what I was thinking and reasoned away my initial reaction. It turns out, it’s exactly as bad as I thought it would be. It’s actually worse in some ways.
I don’t mean this to sound like gloating or any sort of posturing. It sucks that it is as bad as my paranoid and feverish mind thought it would be. This really really sucks.
Sorry for the long post. I just thought if anyone would understand the stunned disbelief of seeing something happen that you thought was too far flung to actually occur it would be here.
“Peter Schiff, says it will be at least 6 months before we see any kind of response to the bailout.”
3b,
We have seen the response, Friday afternoon, overnight and are seeing it today.
dow under 10k
re: Apple – John, i actually think you’re wrong. I’d widen that age group from 12-32, and the products are of such high quality, that you’ll never want to go back to the other crappy computer brands or products.
I’m doubling down on Apple this week.
LEH (65)-
I’ve never perceived any real rules here. When discussions spill into Holocaust metaphors, you know it’s a free-for-all.
However, unless you want to get heckled like Ed Whitson, you have to game up. For example, this post of yours, (65), is a great question, and it breaks some ground that hasn’t been trampled to mud here before.
Scary stuff; I think I will leave RE when the act of comping out a house involves a trip through the mortgage books at the county clerk’s office.
wow, does this BNP guy read this blog? (from the WSJ):
*********
The ongoing rise in Libor rates is unsustainable, said BNP. “(If) European governments do not take measures to reduce credit spreads, the euro will collapse within a matter of weeks.”
********
@65
i think that’s a good questions. maybe send it to an appraiser first and have them comp it accordingly.
Trump (67)-
Assuming intelligence on the part of any real estate company is a dangerous thing. Especially one that has a level of debt service that’s spiraling exponentially out of control.
Realogy is feeling it, pure and simple. This is simply a knee-jerk idea to try and get them through the next few weeks; that’s all.
Considering that this shitheap helped to create this fiasco (via Fannie/Freddie) I fail to understand why he and B Frank are not being brought up on corruption charges…
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=AP&date=20081006&id=9232177
Someone needs to inject Dodd with a large dose of delusion-reducing Haldol…
…better yet, IV air.
sl
#90 clot:Scary stuff; I think I will leave RE when the act of comping out a house involves a trip through the mortgage books at the county clerk’s office.
You and I have had this discussion on a number of occassions. It is my belief that this type of activity will destroy the housing markets.
I cannot belive that the NAR is not out aggressively campaiging against this.
As I have said in prior discussions if this happens it will be reflected in my bid. I may have to educate a few realtors along the way, but who cares.
aapl at 91.7
If it makes you feel better I tried to bid on 6% coupon munis at par and my bids were rejected.
regarding 94 above….
corruption and Treason
sl
So….
The EU cannot bail out it banks ’cause the EU can’t tax.
The individual yourapeein govs will have to bail out their own banks, on the backs of their own people, but then won’t want to be part of this EU anymore…
The EU is toast.
Right?
Only busted countries will want to get into EU since no one will take their own currency.
Which trend will win?
Quite frankly I never even used an Apple product so it is safe to say their products are luxury products. Actually I have never even bought a CD or a CD player or a flat screen TV!!
LATW Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 10:14 am
dow under 10k
re: Apple – John, i actually think you’re wrong. I’d widen that age group from 12-32, and the products are of such high quality, that you’ll never want to go back to the other crappy computer brands or products.
I’m doubling down on Apple this week.
TED spread at record again.
EPIC BAIL FAIL! Hahahah. Like we all here didn’t already know this would happen.
Clot 55,
Do you think that FHA will go first or Ginnie Mae? I’ve been trying to figure that one out. Maybe they both go up in smoke together?
Ginnie has grown it’s business quite a bit since the problems with Fannie and Freddie.
John: You live in a cave or what?
LATW: You’re gonna get burned.
I called DOW 9999 at the start of the year, it was one I hoped I woud be wrong about. I have to have a long hard look at this to see how low it will fall. While we migh rally back to above 10K, I think the floor has been broken and the next leg down is starting. In sthe men time I is still “Do Nothing”
Hey here is a thought. With the way things are going, maybe we should not even want to buy a house any more.
10% correction? 25%? 50% oof of 2005 maybe when we are back to around 225- 250k for a 3 bed 2 bath house it will make sense to buy again.
Sorry for the long post. I just thought if anyone would understand the stunned disbelief of seeing something happen that you thought was too far flung to actually occur it would be here.
It’s downright depressing. 3 years ago I warned anyone who would listed that we were headed for a disaster; that you can’t have an economy based on perpetually rising home prices and serial flipping/refinancing. At some point the music had to stop. At the time, people though I was crazy or simply had a case of sour grapes because I missed out on housing mania.
Even today, I hear many people still asking if we can avoid a recession. I would be thrilled if we can escape this situation with just a run of the mill recession.
PGC: “Do Nothing”
hear, hear.
sl
[71] shab,
ad hominen doesn’t convince me that I am wrong. Further, try reading—I never suggested that this stock market or the employment market moves in conjunction to O’s speeches. Rather, at the margins, the prospect of dem control does result in some people deciding to take gains or lay off staff that they think would be more expensive to lay off later.
I took gains this year, not because I had some precognition that the market would blow off big time (would that I did) but because I felt such gains would be taxed more heavily next year or in 2010. Or are you of the opinion that this won’t happen?
If you have proof that this sort of distortion doesn’t occur, let’s have it. I am calling you out.
I like to go out. Unlike today’s kids who shake their heads like autistic monkeys with their little white earphones if I want to go hear music I go to a club and if I want to watch a game I go to a game. Most of todays kids have only played golf or driven a sports car on the WII, WIIs and Apple junk are the first thing to go in a recession.
Interesting comp killer for Sparta. The 30 acres make up for not being in town. I think this started at over 1.5Mil, now down in the sixes.
http://www.notsparta.com
Not sure if this has been posted already.
“Ohio woman, 90, attempts suicide after foreclosure”
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE4928IS20081003
John: TV is poison. We don’t have it.
But music and games make the are great! Especially music.
You’re totally wrong about Apple. Apple machines are not any more expensive than the others, and you get UNIX underneath so it’s reliable. Think about this: There are still /no/ viruses for Mac OS X.
lost: where are you? here….
http://forums.depechemode.com/forum/image.php?u=2&dateline=1223298338
LATW,
I don’t know anything about the stock. I do know that we are entering a deep global recession. Doubling down is normally a losing proposition. The fed has been doubling, tripling down. How’s that working?
In this environment, don’t be concerned with the rate of return on your $, focus on the return of your $.
As I said last night and as BC bob has said today,Watch europe, that’s the next big act. secondly Dow 8K by thanksgiving.
reality will hit the US come Dec 25th. Whether or not people realize it yet, Christmas has been canceled, useless you count the jingle mail.
A combination of a non-existent holiday sales season that will crush many businesses and the psychological aspect of many families not being able to pay/borrow for the usual Xmas spread is going to sour the american outlook considerably. The Oval office is going to be a very hot seat for who ever wins the November election.
down 500!
109 John,
I am of the opinion that game systems like the Wii, PS3, and Xbox might see an uptick in sales during a recession as parents will want their kids to stay home even more.
Anybody covering some of their positions? The sentiment is very negative right now.
We might have made a short term low.
Today makes me think I want a lot of stock come bonus time!!!!!! Plus I wanna to whole 15.5K right away in 2009!!!
TV, anything microsoft, Newspaper, Magazines, land lines, fax, 8-track, LPs, cassettes, CDs, DVDs, blue-ray, typewriters, usmail, libraries == old hat crap.
Internet + OS X + Music + Games + Cell + IM + email + SMS == current and future
And these facts are so old (about a decade) it’s now conventional wisdom.
vic,
I gave you the quick, down and dirty answer to your question; #637, previous thread.
TED spread about to break 4.0
Tosh – I had the same thoughts exactly at about the same time. We were looking at buying a house, and we were just stunned at how high housing prices were. The older owners (Boomers and above) said this was normal, and that housing “has always been expensive.” I was wondering who could afford these houses (the population of Randolph cannot consist entirely of CEOs, especially when many of the long-time residents had very ordinary jobs). Surely it could not require CEO pay to buy a starter home.
We were right.
#106 rent:I hear many people still asking if we can avoid a recession.
Me too, and I find that absolutely incredible, that people can still ask that question.
The extent of the denial is dumbfounding.
the markets are down this far,
and we still haven’t had any big 1 day crashes — not triggered the emergency stops
we’re gonna get 2 or 3 of those i bet
followed by no rebound.
Great Depression 2.0
#118 John: Perhaps your bonus will be your job.
@3b:
regarding recession,
Bernanke /threatened/ that we “could” have a recession if the bailout were not passed.
Hahahahahahahah!
Europe is in interesting mess. As the euro is about to crumble, what options do the member nations have? It s is an expensive and time consuming operation to switch currencies. But the only other option seems to be sticking with the euro, which countries such as France and Germany are not going to want to do as the poorer countries such a Portugal, Greece and Ireland drag down the currency and force the larger more prosperous countries to essentially subsidize them.
any thoughts? BC?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27044918
This seems like the capitulation of masses.
kettle1: spain is already bankrupt, too.
lost: when you review the video of the press conference, note what Dave says at minute 5:30 “…Martin has written some really fantastic songs…”
“#118 John: Perhaps your bonus will be your job.”
3b,
Good point. That’s how I view things.
was this posted over the weekend?
Judge tells Wachovia to negotiate only with Citi
Citigroup Inc said on Saturday that a judge ordered Wachovia Corp to refrain from negotiating with other parties, a day after Wachovia backed out of a plan to sell its banking operations to Citigroup and instead said it was selling all its assets to Wells Fargo & Co.
Citigroup said a New York state judge granted emergency injunctive relief to extend its exclusivity agreement with Wachovia. The exclusivity agreement bars Wachovia from negotiating with other parties.
Citigroup said on Monday it had preliminarily agreed to buy Wachovia’s banking assets for $2.2 billion in a government-backed deal. On Friday, Wells Fargo said it had signed an agreement to buy the whole of Wachovia, including its asset management unit and retail brokerage, for about $15 billion.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE49406320081005
make money Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 10:54 am
This seems like the capitulation of masses.
Good title for the new album….
@128:
“A recent Coldwell Banker survey found that more than half of the real estate agents said listing prices in their market are too high to attract qualified buyers.”
Ergo, high prices are still attracting un-qualitifed buyers.
WHIPPANY, N.J. — After several tumultuous weeks on Wall Street, New York City seems increasingly likely to fall into recession, many economists and analysts say. To get a sense of what that might look like, one need only cross the Hudson River.
New Jersey’s economy has already slipped into reverse. Its biggest employers have stopped hiring, and some have started firing. Its unemployment rate is rising fast, and the values of its houses are falling even faster. The state government is grappling with a projected budget shortfall of $1.7 billion, and some of its most affluent counties and towns are reducing services as tax revenue declines.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/06/nyregion/06jersey.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&oref=slogin
I’m with BC and say that it may be time to at least start to dust off the 4 year old boots.
No worries, homie don’t play that game.
132. because you don’t tell Uncle Sam, “NO.”
We are truly a communist country.
sl
#132 Kettle: I believe that decision was vacated later.
http://www.rte.ie/business/2008/1006/wachovia.html
kettle [127],
Many doubted the EUR when they united. Well the test is here. Now they are running haphazardly, protecting their own turf. When the waters are calm the boat floats calmly. However, once they hit rough seas, parties start to bail. Well, they just hit the perfect storm.
Ireland started by guaranteeing deposits, Germany and Greece have followed. All other are now forced to jump on the wagon. IMO, this could be the beginning of the end of the EUR.
Better discussion of citi-wachovia
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081005/wells_fargo_wachovia.html?.v=27
#139 BC Bob:IMO, this could be the beginning of the end of the EUR.
Than what in your opinion?
BTW when I worked at One Battery Park Place at EF Hutton there was 3,000 people in my building I watched 2,990 let go. Me and ten cockaroaches survivors were left. I have no fears, unless the world ends.
The UK does not have an SUV culture so it’s not gas prices causing this.
New car registrations fall by 21%
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7654648.stm
MJ,
Spain will probably be the trigger that sets off the financial bomb in europe.
BC Bob,
Do you see any of the eurozone countries trying to go back to individual currencies when it really hits the fan?
There are going to be some nasty surprises as the Euro takes on real stress. Some of the euro countries have their job markets essentially subsidized by their bigger and richer neighbors. Look at the riots that have been going on in france by the groups of first generation immigrant youths. In some ways they ( eutope0 have a much more volatile situation on their hands as their population is used to a high level of social services. Any pull back in such services is going to generate a large amount of discontent.
Americans are used to a lower level of social services so are less sensitive to such pull backs in comparison to Europeans.
kettle1:
The /only/ bright spot for the USA is we have an unlimited supply of Catholic immigrant labor, should we need it.
The only way the Europeein’s can get cheap labor is by importing militant Muslims. That is already very problematic in France and the Netherlands, and just wait till the jobs disappear!
3b,
Not my field of expertise, But you cant have such a large central currency like the Euro without integrating the underlying economies on the same scale and implementing policies to deal with instability in various regions of the conglomerate.
The European union only went half way in this manner. Its one thing to have individual states subsidize one another such as you see in the USA, but it is a different beast to have different countries subsidize one another. The cultural and social issues are much greater as the individual citizens of each nation do not see then selves as a single group.
PGC
The UK is getting decimated by high unemployment and astronomical housing prices combined with no available credit. They are worse off then the US. barclays alone has liabilities greater then the GDP of the UK.
A comparison for the European Union:
Currently several US states our out of money and having to ask the treasury for funding ( i.e California is asking for 7 billion in order to make payroll).
The US treasury can hand out cash to indiviual states and NJ is not going to protest. Nj citizens see CA citizens as all being american and hence are willing to accept such subsidies as we all identify as part of the same group.
It doesnt work that way in the EU. French citizens are NOT ok with billions being handed to Ireland or Spain or Portugal. Each group see’s themselves as french/spanish/irish/Portuguese first and part of the EU second. Outside of any financial issues. This is one of the key issues that will break apart the EU is times of extreme stress.
So much for all the europeans coming to the US to buy US assets because of a stronger euro.
Looks like it’s going to be a beautiful day today in Cabo San Lucas. And it also looks like SRS is going to give Stu a very nice 38th birthday present today.
Gator however is starting to wonder if that fence on the border will soon be used to keep us Gringos out of Mexico.
Lil Gator is blissfully unaware of all and is happily writing his name in Froot Loops while we are waiting to dock in Cabo.
Ok, so I finally joined Facebook.
The end of the world is upon us.
#145, 146 Kettle1
Quick question re your observation of EU.
I understand that EU has underlying financial issues like the U.S., made more complicated by a collective action problem not present in the States.
Putting the collective action aspect aside for a moment, what’s your view of the underlying health of the Eurozone vis-a-vis U.S.? My understanding is that their banks are even more leveraged and their property bubble even bigger than the States. Did the qualify of their underwriting/lending standard also decrease?
kettle [146],
In addition to this, how about the friction between banks? Those that have US operations, part of tarp versus those that don’t. OUCH.
So is this the hedge funds blowing up or what? Dow 8000 looks around the corner.
From calculatedrisk; Second quarter 2k8 MEW approaches ZERO. We are no where near a bottom.
This just keeps getting worse.
perception is everything… oil now looks like a bloated pig at $90/bbl
113 ChiFi
I’m here. Just swamped badly at work.
That link took me to a blank page with an icon in the corner. Should there have been more?
#87
“Sorry for the long post. I just thought if anyone would understand the stunned disbelief of seeing something happen that you thought was too far flung to actually occur it would be here.”
Tosh– I am of the same mindset. Started reading this blog in late 2005 when it seemed totally obvious to me that RE prices were unsustainable. People just did not have the income to support what they were buying. I thought prices would decline 20-30% from the peak, but I never thought the secondary ramifications would be as bad as they have turned out. Even though I am so far coming out ahead because of this downturn, I feel little in the way of satisfaction right now.
130 ChiFi
I can’t get to that. I’ll have to try later at home. When my amazing MAC laptop takes me to it. :)
While on the subject of Euro banks, I am wondering how ING and HSBC manage to stand out among their peers as retail banks. Are they that much more prudent or capitalized than everyone else?
If you have proof that this sort of distortion doesn’t occur, let’s have it.
Just to be clear: you want me to make sense of the rambling mess in #61, and then prove it’s opposite?
Getting past your Limbaugh buzzwords(Oh Noes, the French!), I don’t see anything. You mention all the layoffs in this downturn, but I have no idea what you’re talking about. Wall Street and financials screwed themselves betting on derivatives and real estate and had to clean house. And?
I am calling you out.
Umm, yeah. Posting about a financial crisis known about on this blog for over a year and assigning blame to future events…solid work.
I’ve owned 2 apple computers in my life and both were pieces of crap that crashed repeatedly. best computer I’ve ever owned was an IBM thinkpad. When it finally dies (in year 5 currently), I will get a lenovo.
@skep-tic:
If you owned an Apple before 2003, you are a computer moron.
Apple computers always SUCKED until NeXT took over Apple and made it all UNIX.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NeXT
Apple since about 2003 has NOTHING TO DO with Apple from the 80’s and 90’s.
John (100)-
That puts you in a fractional minority. I’d say you and people like you can’t move the needle on AAPL.
I have 2 macs right now. I have Mac Mini which I use as a media server, and it’s great for that. I also have one of the big iMacs which I use for my photography editing/graphic design. The hardware design is great.
The Mac OS is like any other, it has pluses and minuses. Some things are easier to do on a PC, some on Linux, some on a Mac. It has some odd interface choices that are outright illogical at times.
Buy an OS for what you intend to use it for, not what is fashionable.
Tom (102)-
“Do you think that FHA will go first or Ginnie Mae? I’ve been trying to figure that one out. Maybe they both go up in smoke together?”
Add Citigroup to that, and you have the makings of an excellent deadpool.
BTW, I have Downey Financial in my office’s latest deadpool. Other candidates are Corus and Fifth Third.
Fixed-rate municipal bond sales fell to about $800 million each of the past two weeks, after averaging more than $6 billion weekly this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Yields on top-rated AAA general obligation debt due in 30 years averaged 5.35 percent, 53 basis points higher than on Sept. 11, based on a daily index from Municipal Market Advisors.
My last Mac was a IIfx
#166 – That was some pretty serious hardware in the day.
Vic (117)-
Lower lows. The rug’s been pulled out from under this sucker, and the real bad news hasn’t even hit yet.
Europe is fried. The Germans are circling the wagons. Every other EEU nation is a big sucking noise, and without Germany, they’re toast.
Duck,
EU banks have a higher level of leverage then the US. US banks average about 15:1. EU banks Average 30:1.
here’s a fun number: iceland’s banks currently have in excess of 130 Billion in foreign liabilities. icelands GDP is 19 Billion!
Cartoon about EU attempt at bailut agreement.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_9ZzZquaXrR8/SOjImjnhE-I/AAAAAAAACQM/uujL-ydX7zc/s1600-h/Monopoly.jpg
<i.Putting the collective action aspect aside for a moment, what’s your view of the underlying health of the Eurozone vis-a-vis U.S.? My understanding is that their banks are even more leveraged and their property bubble even bigger than the States. Did the qualify of their underwriting/lending standard also decrease?</i?
People who are computer geeks and techno people think the whole world are. My friends and most of my aunts, uncles and inlaws venture inside best buy when their AC or TV breaks. I bought my PC on Black Friday back in 2001 at 5am for like $299 bucks Replaced CPU last year for $299 with a Dell special, cell phones are the freebies and my TVs are from 1980s, and unless you count a boom box I have as a stero that is it. I absolutely hate electronic stuff. In fact I like work as you just call help desk and magically it is fixed. Believe me when you have a choice between paying your rent or eating or buying a new Ipod no one is buying the Ipod. Whatever an IPOD is, I don’t know.
libraries offer great services for FREE to the public. Why would anyone have a problem with them?
[159] schab,
Sorry, but I have dumbed the point down as much as I can, and as you are apparently the only one that takes issue with my theory, and for very apparent partisan reasons, I won’t waste Grim’s bandwidth or my employer’s time explaining it syllable by syllable. We can discuss it further at the next GTG, and I can walk you through Econ 101 then.
Quite frankly I never even used an Apple product so it is safe to say their products are luxury products. Actually I have never even bought a CD or a CD player or a flat screen TV!!
What do you have, a mini-Victrola?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCumH8LRo1A
Randy,
We could see oil approach $65/barrel as the dollar continues to strengthen for the next quarter or so and as demand destruction continues. It a perfect storm of sorts. Saudi jacked up its production at all costs to appease the Bush Administration while the dollar was falling through the floor and demand was high. Well just as the Saudis took such steps, the dollar is gaining in strength and will continue to do so. Demand is dropping off fairly quickly.
This could have very nasty consequences for russia. They have been funding the majority of their recent growth, both social and defense entirely on oil revenue. As oil prices drop the funding dries up. if funding dries up things in russia could turn sour very quickly.
The other aspect of this perfect storm is that the last major drop in oil consumption took almost 20 years to return to the previous highs. As we enter a global recession/depression with a current excess of crude of the market, prices and consumption could drop rapidly. This could mean a long term decrease in oil revenue for all of the major producers. The infrastructure that many producers paid for recently is starting to look like it may not return quite the 5 they tough it would assuming demand stayed high.
Just curious if anyone has heard about an important issue facing our country? Apparently the bird is the word.
@john:
An iPod can be had brand new for $50. Even at minimum wage, that’s affordable. The Guatemalans who mow my lawn have iPods.
A “free” phone never is. It comes with a contract, first of all, and second the software is designed to work against you and for the phone company — the phone companies only make money selling you ringtones and crap like that you don’t want. What you should have is ATT or T-Mobile service and buy your own unlocked GSM phone off Amazon.com, and put yourself in control.
Your PC is likely a virus laden piece of crap. I don’t know how your household works, but in ours, every document gets scanned into PDF and stored digitally, every photo, every video, and encrypted bootable full system backups (2 TB each currently) are made and distributed amongst relatives for safekeeping. Our finance, shopping, everything is done by computer. If you are happy with a $299 unstable insecure piece of junk serving the most important functions in your life, well, good luck.
[148] NJGator.
Happy Birthday Stu!
The little nom has discovered froot loops, and is now her favorite cereal (ouch). But since she had her first good game in soccer (at one point taking it coast to coast and nearly scoring) and took her very first ride on a two-wheeler yesterday, Daddy is very pleased with her and she gets froot loops until the box runs out.
174 ket-
perfect storm? i’ve been hearing that a LOT lately… as such, been loading up on canned goods and the like. i’m just wondering if bottled water and oil-burning lamps ought to be on the shopping list as well?
#175 – STOP! I saw that last night too. I don’t need to go through the rest of the day with that stuck in my head….
the bird, bird, bird, bird’s the word
@tbw: libraries are obsolete works projects sucking up our tax dollars. wtf is the point of a library now that there is the internet?
I actually went on a buyers strike when cassette tapes came out and they wanted me to re-buy my records, then rebuy when they went to cd, then rebuy MP3 then rebuy the apple store download. Plus I have a problem with the concept of copyrights. Lets say I work one day on October 3rd, 1999. I got paid for that day and I move on. Why should I get repaid for that work? If I wrote a memo do I get paid to write it and then 99 cents every time someone reads it?
@everyone:
This is not a perfect storm, this is not “a financial katrina” ** , this is a man made man problem of folks sh!tting where they sleep and eat.
** ok you can call it a financial katrina but only if you blame the katrina catastrophe on the asshats who decided to live below sea level in the first place.
In my town that is where the old folks go in the winter to keep from freezing and in the summer to keep from boiling. Plus the old folks can’t afford net flicks or newspaper subscripions plus it keeps all the spinster women in my town employed.
MJ Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
@tbw: libraries are obsolete works projects sucking up our tax dollars. wtf is the point of a library now that there is the internet?
@John, w/o copyright you’d have no microsoft, no apple, none of the music you love. w/o copyright, you get india and china.
A taste of the issue in the EU
————————————–
Europe Bids Adieu to Common Financial Crisis Approach
The idea of an EU rescue fund to address financial crisis symptoms in Europe is off the table. A summit meeting on Saturday of Europe’s largest economies may end up being little more than a sharing of national strategies.
For a while this week, it looked as though the European Union was preparing to come up with a bloc-wide response to the growing financial crisis. On the eve of a mini-summit in France to discuss a possible strategy, however, a consensus seems to be emerging that the piecemeal approach European countries have been using to confront specific threats may be good enough.
Indeed, with France and Germany both distancing themselves from an apparently Dutch plan to set up a €300 billion ($415 billion) EU rescue fund, it is unclear just what Saturday’s meeting — which will see leaders from France, Germany, Italy and Britain meet in Paris along with European Central Bank head Jean-Claude Trichet and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker — might accomplish. Plus, according to a Thursday evening report published on the Web site of the Financial Times, EU countries not attending the meeting have said the select group has no authority to take decisions for the entire 27-member bloc.
“It is right that individual countries would want to take their own decisions, particularly when national taxpayers’ money is potentially at risk,” a spokesman for British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said on Thursday. It now looks as thought the much-touted meeting may devolve into little more than a sharing of ideas and national strategies. According to the Financial Times, one concrete idea left on the table is that of developing common standards on guaranteeing bank deposits.
———————————
A week into the European leg of the meltdown of the global financial system, Germany has hit major turbulence. Hypo Real Estate, a member of the DAX-30, Germany’s equivalent of the Dow Jones Industrial Average looks to be on the verge of failing.
According to the German Magazine Der Spiegel, the planned bailout of the company is unraveling and failure is a looming possibility, as the company faces a potentially massive 70 to 100 billion euro funding gap by 2009.
The German central bank has warned that if Hypo Real Estate fails, a collapse of similar proportions to the fallout after the Lehman Brothers failure would threaten Germany. This story should alert readers to the depth of the liquidity problems that exist not only in the U.S., but in Europe as well.
MJ: professional librarians are needed more now than ever because of the internet. Why don’t you base all of your knowlege off of wikipedia?
With libraries you get free access to legal databases like Lexus Nexus, reference databases such as Ebsco,etc
I think the FDIC and Fed are between a rock and a hard place. They played hardball and let banks and BDS fail. But the Lehman and Wamu collaspes caused a greater far reaching damage than they expected. Now there are only two big banks left in poor condition, NCC and SOV. Neither are posterboys for subprime lending or lended big to bubble areas. Letting NCC and/or SOV to fail this week or next will cause an even greater fear of banks. What to do who knows. Even a shotgun marriage will scare the markets. NCC and SOV will need to be propped up until the crisis starts to die down and then they can quietly recover or go under. What to do, What to do, it is hard work playing god
MJ
yes this is a man made mess, 100%. A storm analogy is still very apt however. Katrina is actually a very good analogy. people could make a large amount of money by living below sea level even thought they new that 1 storm could wipe them out and that such a storm was eventually guaranteed. Of course people the line up to live below sea level as their neighbors already have and so you would be left out if you didnt also. of course, now katrina is here and we are all hosed
In some ways, its a tragedy of the commons. A bank was hard pressed to compete with its peers if it didnt jump in. Thats no excuse, but a general description.
** ok you can call it a financial katrina but only if you blame the katrina catastrophe on the asshats who decided to live below sea level in the first place.
“MJ Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
@tbw: libraries are obsolete works projects sucking up our tax dollars. wtf is the point of a library now that there is the internet?”
You sound well read.
gary Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 9:34 am
BC Bob, Everytime I see Herman Edwards, I go into convulsions! LOL
gary: the Jets will be 6-2…check the sched…
I think this sums up the situation for those schenfreude Trekkies out there.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEGqkx9NkhM&feature=related
Elmer Fuld in front of Congress. This could be worth watching.
apple is at 90, I am jumping in when it hits 9!
and I can walk you through Econ 101 then
Hannity, is that you?
“@tbw: libraries are obsolete works projects sucking up our tax dollars. wtf is the point of a library now that there is the internet?””
Nothing can supplant the pleasure of curling up with a good book on a cold day with a hot cup of coffee. Amazon Kindle just does not do it for me.
LATW Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 10:14 am
dow under 10k re: Apple – John, i actually think you’re wrong. I’d widen that age group from 12-32, and the products are of such high quality, that you’ll never want to go back to the other crappy computer brands or products.
I’m doubling down on Apple this week.
LATW: YOU PICK YOUR SPOTS CAREFULLY AND REMEMBER THE TERM VALUE TRAP! REMEMBER A COMPANY AND THAT COMPANY’S STOCK ARE TWO SEPARATE THINGS. THE ARE STRONGLY CORRELATED, BUT THEY ARE NOT THE SAME.
This could have very nasty consequences for russia. They have been funding the majority of their recent growth, both social and defense entirely on oil revenue. As oil prices drop the funding dries up. if funding dries up things in russia could turn sour very quickly.
Let’s hope so :)
#195 – Nothing can supplant the pleasure of curling up with a good book on a cold day with a hot cup of coffee. Amazon Kindle just does not do it for me.
This pretty much cuts to the heart of the matter.
The Kindle is pretty cool though and has a lot of potential. A ruggedized version would be perfect in a school and reduce the cost of texts quite a bit.
lostinny Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 11:50 am
113 ChiFi
I’m here. Just swamped badly at work.
That link took me to a blank page with an icon in the corner. Should there have been more?
AND WHAT DOES THAT ICON SAY? ;-)
mboy,
Let’s hope so :)
Dont forget about unintended consequences.
@tbw:
So, your only defense of the obsolete library is that they have subscriptions to proprietary online computer databases? You’ve proven my point for me.
@heheheh:
You sound like a dinosaur.
Fed fun and games
Last week was a hoot! $49 billion on last Wednesday alone went to the banks. That same day, the Fed lent $146 billion to investment firms. By the time people went home for the weekend, $410 billion had passed from the Fed to private firms.
The money was lent, (says Bloomberg), at about 2.25% interest. that’s about half the rate of inflation…and precisely 1.4% less than the government’s cost of money, based on 10-year T-note yields. Two weeks ago, Bernanke was asked by Barney Frank how much money he had available for this kind of rescue operation. He said he had $800 billion. Last week, he was lending it out at an average daily rate of $44 billion. Let’s see, at that rate, the Fed is probably about 5 days from going broke itself. This should be interesting…when the Fed needs a bailout!
Deleveraging: How Will It End?
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/lehman-bank-US-debt-leverage-bear/index/a/19332
#197 Oh yeah, that is exactly what we neeed, a cold, hungry, poor, unstable,and angry Russia, ruled by Putin. It’s a win-win for everyone.
If liquidity is the issue, then why is the FED doing a reverse repo? Just took out $25 B today.
BC / Chifi/ Clot – Anyone?
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm
#178 Randy – You are more likely to lose electricity than lose water. I have a few soda bottles of ice in the freezer and several oil lamps with extra lamp oil as well as a kerosene heater and an extra propane tank for the grill. Prepare as you would for a blizzard. Have one extra of everything you use on a daily basis. The feds say to have a minimum three day supply of food, water and meds. I’d go for at least a week. Also, keep the cars full of gas and have some cash in small bills. It’s just basic preparedness.
MJ
I think libraries still have a very important role.
Cars did not negate the existence of bicycles. The internet doe snot negate the existence of libraries. They different mediums with different strengths. No different then deconstructing all land lines because we have cell phones.
Plume (177)-
If your kid can really play, don’t let her near Westfield FC. They will make her soft and let her be a cry-baby. There’s no crying in soccer.
“But since she had her first good game in soccer (at one point taking it coast to coast and nearly scoring)…”
#161
“If you owned an Apple before 2003, you are a computer moron.”
Yes, I am a computer moron. But all I know is that apple sold me inferior products that were very expensive. at the time, people claimed the high prices were justified, just as they do now. well, I already made the mistake twice, so I am not willing to give my business to them again.
@kettle1:
“I think libraries still have a very important role.”
If that role is sucking up tax money and giving it to Lexis/Nexis against my will, then yeah, they do have a role.
MJ (180)-
“…libraries are obsolete works projects sucking up our tax dollars.”
I agree. We can use all those books to build fires to heat our homes.
Victorian Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
If liquidity is the issue, then why is the FED doing a reverse repo? Just took out $25 B today.
BC / Chifi/ Clot – Anyone?
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm
creating liquidity…what is the question?
For the party selling the security (and agreeing to repurchase it in the future) it is a repo; for the party on the other end of the transaction (buying the security and agreeing to sell in the future) it is a reverse repurchase agreement.
@kettle1:
And I last had a land line in 1998.
since we are talking star trek today….
a fun quote
‘The money system is eerily Borg-like. Because it structurally requires growth, it works relentlessly to assimilate all forms of capital. The natural consequence is that everything must be for sale. Values of freedom, independence, self-reliance, and even conservation are subservient to the goal of growth—which is really just growth of the financial Borg, not human welfare or the security of a habitable planet.”
John (181)-
I’m guessing you never contemplated a career in the arts.
@clotpoll
book burning is not what it used to be. you haven’t lost any knowledge if a library burns down.
my filing cabinets are gone but i still have all the information.
@skep-tic: if you think Apple computers since 2003 are high priced, you’re still a computer moron.
Remember, Apple prior to being taken over by NeXT/Jobs has nothing to do with the Apple of today.
Anyone that confuses the Apple of the 80’s and 90’s with the Apple of today will just be left behind. Your loss.
MJ: That was one example. I bet you don’t read!
well, MJ, you are a first. I’ve never heard of someone who doesn’t like libraries.
You know where your tax money goes with the library? It goes back into the library in forms of new books, internet, reference help, educational programs, literacy coordination, cd’s and dvd’s, professional and scholarly database access.
watching Fuld?
If you just ate lunch, don’t. You’ll vomit.
sl
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=879447060&play=1
nice interview…
in addition, it serves as a quiet place for people (especially kids) to read and study
Another GTG? Anyone?
Gee—with all the discussion of schools that happens on this site, I’m kind of shocked that the first value of libraries wouldn’t be their value to kids.
MJ– It is like people who bought POS cadillacs in the 1980s. They buy mercedes now, even though cadillac is supposedly better. I gave apple a chance; it sucked. I am not trying to run mission control from my house like you are. If I want to read a book, I go to the library or a bookstore. I mail letters. I talk to people in the real world, not just online. I am glad you are so impressed by your computer skills, but some of us have better things to do with our time than make redundant copies of every single object under the sun.
Dollar is getting hammered, esp against the yen.
Another cut tomorrow?
Also, public libraries give free DVDs!!!
Grim,
When, where?
[194] schab,
Yup, you outed me.
Now for a little light reading that I dredged up after you took me to task for wasting money on three college degrees:
http://www.earthfrisk.com/blog/?p=91
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0708/11670_Page2.html
Now, I really have to get back to work plotting the downfall of american democracy and reinstituting the feudal system. Read up and we will discuss at the GTG, and you can impress me with your knowledge of economics and tax policy, and show me how I was a fool to spend all that time studying it and working in the industry.
grim, 229 in mod, and I cannot fathom why.
223
Grim,
Sounds good. Haven’t got brigadoon in shape yet for a w/e GTG, and Schab wants to take me to school for my poor command of economics, tax policy, and business management.
211 – Chifi
“Reverse Repo
A reverse repo is simply the same repurchase agreement from the buyer’s viewpoint, not the seller’s. Hence, the seller executing the transaction would describe it as a ‘repo’, while the buyer in the same transaction would describe it a ‘reverse repo’. So ‘repo’ and ‘reverse repo’ are exactly the same kind of transaction, just described from opposite viewpoints.”
Please bear with me as I try to understand this. In a Repo – The Treasury gives cash to the seller in lieu of securities as collateral. In a Reverse Repo, the Treasury accepts cash by selling the securities back to the original seller, correct?
So, a reverse repo actually drains liquidity from the market, no?
someday, we will all sit in pods and have experiences pumped into our brains like a Philip K. Dick novel. Actual experience will soon become irrelevant
Grim, GTG should be in Montclair….and everyone should wear black…..
“book burning is not what it used to be. you haven’t lost any knowledge if a library burns down.
my filing cabinets are gone but i still have all the information.”
Yeah, but think of everyone else that won’t get that knowledge anymore.
“They don’t gotta burn the books they just remove them”
-Zack de la Rocha.
I’ve loved libraries since I was a kid. The quiet page turning, low murmur of the room is very relaxing. For years I will treat myself to a couple hours in the magazine room when I’m feeling stressed.
For those that just want to hang out and read, go to your local B&N or Borders — there’s more to read, it’s up to date, the seating is better, and they serve coffee and cake.
Get this: my wife takes my daughter to B&N and Borders for kids events — they have more and better ones than the stupid local libraries.
Kettle1,
You hit the nail on the head with Euro and European Union. Countries are thinking of bailing and it’s only raining out today. Tomorrow the storm is coming and common sense tells you what’s gonna happen.
Could this have beed enginered by powers that be in 2002 by this admisnistartion to knock down EU and kill this competing currency.
I’m thinking they’re not that smart.
Clot,
>> what I teach my children… is none
>> of your business. I don’t see anyone
>> else here being questioned about such
>> things
I apologize for my question and did not mean to offend. I was asking you specifically because I value your opinion. The question was meant more in the context of me sitting next to you at a PTA meeting, parent to parent, not a Senate-hearing type setting.
Regardless, you are right, it is none of my business. I am sorry and realize that the tenor of this blog has become so derisive, it is not the right time to engage in quotidian chit-chat.
@ben: Yeah, quoting a commie musician will get me to rethink my stance on libraries.
I’m a godless libertarian free market existentialist. You’d do better with me by quoting Rush or Green Day.
lol @ MJ
MJ (220)-
“…book burning is not what it used to be.”
Nope. The new regime doesn’t even need to burn books. They’ve just jiggered the education system to the point at which nobody can understand the material that’s in the books.
Even better, they’ve turned peoples’ brains to goo…so much so, that they’re not even interested in books.
#244 seneca: We do not even talk about real estate that much any more here. I guess there is no reason to.
@make money:
“Could this have beed enginered by powers that be in 2002 by this admisnistartion to knock down EU and kill this competing currency.
I’m thinking they’re not that smart.”
America for the last couple decades has been the benefactor of several happy accidents. But we’ve had now a few accidents too many.
skep (223)-
Probably doesn’t like children or puppies, either.
Victorian Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
211 – Chifi
Please bear with me as I try to understand this. In a Repo – The Treasury gives cash to the seller in lieu of securities as collateral. In a Reverse Repo, the Treasury accepts cash by selling the securities back to the original seller, correct?
Reverse Repo Treasury = Repo to the seller adds cash to market
Repo Treasury = Reverse Repo to the seller removes cash from market
What people call repo is reverse repo to the Treasury….leave it there….the intent is that it is driven by the Treasury, so they are reporting it from the Treasury’s view….
sl (225)-
I could use a good, purging vomit right about now.
3b Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
#244 seneca: We do not even talk about real estate that much any more here. I guess there is no reason to.
3b: this is real estate….
203 ChiFi
Yes I see that. I’m not sure I like the logo though. Ah well.
Seneca (244)-
No offense taken. My comment was not really even directed at you.
I just can’t afford to engage the small, yet vocal yahoo contingent here in an unwinnable game of wits.
Speaking of real estate, how is Realogy doing?
tbw (256)-
Close to toast.
The dems take the gloves off.
Obama highlights McC scandal
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7654311.stm
NCC back into the zombie zone.
Just watched 15 minute of Fuld testimony.
It makes me puke. The guy needs some PR lessons. Also, I wonder if he really has deep understanding of economy. The worst is when house members ask him for suggestions, WTF!!!
The guy made almost half a billion just from 2000 onward. He gives a damn to economy going forward.
Re Libraries: Don’t forget InterLibrary Loan. If you find a citation to an obscure book you’d like to read and neither online sellers nor your local library has it, ask at the reference desk – they will find it in some library somewhere and they’ll borrow it for you.
DSL porking the pooch.
I think we get a massive Failure Friday this week.
still_looking Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
watching Fuld? If you just ate lunch, don’t. You’ll vomit. sl
sl: Cut the guy some slack. He has to toe-the-line in order to stay out of jail….there is a least a shot that he might kill himself….he probably would not because it would invalidate insurance policies. He has a good shot of getting divorced. He may also be murdered. I can’t waste my energy worrying about him. I would think that neither should you.
I love libraries, especially when I remember how many times the public library system has helped me with reports from middle school through college. I will be bringing my child to the library regularly.
so if the euro is increasingly worthless, who is going to buy up all those investment properties that were soooooo hot in 2006/2007?
if memory serves, there were a lot of articles about europeans buying in NYC … wait, that would mean that if they foreclose, NYC could get hit …
234 Comrade
after you took me to task for wasting money on three college degrees
You’ve confused me with someone else; there was no way to discern thru today’s posts that you had any degree, let alone three.
Your talk of layoffs pinned on O’s big win is real tired. Shouldn’t these massive phantom layoffs, if they’ve already occurred, be blamed on M? He was ahead until very recently.
Maybe I’ll tune into CNBC and catch the same partisan garbage tonight:
One of the things we’ve learned during the Democratic primary battle is that Hillary’s victories are bullish for stocks and Obama’s wins are bearish
I think we can use libraries as a stepping stone to a gradual re-acceptance of the concept of concentration camps. :)
@tbw: libraries are obsolete works projects sucking up our tax dollars. wtf is the point of a library now that there is the internet?
i agree with 99% of what you say, but what about the kids?
I’m just waiting for the neocon mindset to start calling for privatization of police and fire.
tosh- dollar is getting pounded by the yen, but the dollar is crushing the euro. does that mean the yen is taking the euro to the woodshed then??
Starting in 10th grade, I had to write term papers.
When you had to write term papers, you had to go to the library.
When you had to go to the library, girls would be there too.
My local library was the center of my social life. Never a dull moment.
Now, kids just Facebook and IM. That sucks.
234 Comrade
after you took me to task for wasting money on three college degrees
You’ve confused me with someone else; there was no way to discern thru today’s posts that you had any degree, let alone three.
Your talk of layoffs pinned on O’s big win is real tired. It’s hack material.
As M was ahead until very recently, your point makes no sense…shouldn’t he take the blame for these massive phantom layoffs?
Maybe I’ll tune into CNBC and catch the same partisan garbage tonight, they run it whenever the market goes down:
One of the things we’ve learned during the Democratic primary battle is that Hill’s victories are bullish for stocks and O’s wins are bearish Kudlow
Geek on the term paper, chat up the girls, smoke a wiki, go home.
Good times…
#268 – I noticed that too after I posted. I’m not too fluent in currency trades though, I’ll have to defer.
I suppose it might be taken as evidence of a coordinated US/UK/EU rate cut with JPY/CAD holding since the later two are up.
re: land line – i was just outside NYC when 9-11 hit and my parents couldn’t reach me for hours. they were sketched out. that was a moment i wish i had a land line.
we have one now, but it’s primary function is the fax machine … never made a call on the land line
80% of books published are rubbish. I’d rather take them out for free at the library and read at my own pace than spend 24.99 a pop at B&N
Dow into the 9600’s, what a day.
RE: Currency
It is the unwinding of the massive Yen Carry Trade.
@laughing:
Land lines failed during 9/11 too — the entire phone system jammed. On the other hand, AOL Instant Messenger never skipped a beat. Score one for the Internet.
Time to cover shorts. At 616 down we will have either a sell off and achieve capitulation or have a strong last hour. I rather go to starbucks.
land line – i was just outside NYC when 9-11 hit and my parents couldn’t reach me for hours.
I was playing secretary on my Motorola 2-way pager (remember those things?). Was the only thing we could get working at the time.
2pm, where is the ppt? Anyone got the beach report for the Caymans?
“tosh- dollar is getting pounded by the yen, but the dollar is crushing the euro. does that mean the yen is taking the euro to the woodshed then??”
Not an automatic. But today it is, the yen is crushing the euro in the cross, up close to 6%.
Meet Neel Kashkari: The Man With the $700 Billion Wallet
Very interesting.
@barbara: you can stay all day at B&N or Borders and read all their books. They don’t mind. They encourage it. You only need to pay to take it home.
If you took your library tax money, you’d have plenty to spend buying books from B&N, Borders, or tax & gas free via Amazon.com
Expected more posts on a day where the DOW is down near 700 pts.
Climb down off that ledge and get back to your PC.
skip covering your financial shorts just buy UYG in case of rebound.
MJ, really? I’m betting that the cost of about 4 hardbacks, probably less, of my tax money goes to the local libraries in my town. And I don’t like to read at B&N. Too many cell phones and kids running around.
Just sounds like another internet “who can be the biggest anti-public bad ass” neo-con rant.
*yawns broadly*
“Expected more posts on a day where the DOW is down near 700 pts.”
JB,
Not to worry. Soon we will all be zillionaires.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26907542/displaymode/1107/s/2/framenumber/11/
hear that big sucking sound? that’s the sound of hedge funds collapsing and people pulling their money out of the rigged casino/stock market.
manipulation is making a bad situation much worse.
9581. Is there a short rally around here?
Paulson surprises everyday. His promoting of Neel Kashkari shows the trust these guys put in Ivy league education. Haven’t these Ivy league types done enough damage? Can’t we get some guys with real experience back?
Are Japanese housewives sleeping sound tonight?
SG [290],
Is it Ivy League or the Goldman factor?
“who can be the biggest anti-public bad ass”
I’d think for the good of society, anything that gets people outside and participating is a benefit.
We still have a year or so before the bread lines…
Wake me up when the NYSE circuit breakers go off
Wow. Does the blackbox have special logic for Monday’s? Two mondays in a row with 700 point drop.
I can’t hold back, I’ve got to make fun of his name.
Kashkari?
Cash-and-Carry (aka bulk wholesale purchases paid for in cash at time of purchase, no terms)? Isn’t that the Treasury toxic waste purchase policy we’ve heard so much about?
Kashkari=CashCarry
Small note from a lurker regarding libraries… We take away public libraries, public parks, public beaches, and we can quickly race to become a third world country like India.
Is it Ivy League or the Goldman factor? Both.
I like the new guy, being an Indian American myself, but someone at age 35 in charge of $700 billion rescue !!! The guy was in grade school when S&L happened. You can easily get some experienced person from RTC.
U.GS.A.
OPEC President Predicts Crude Will Fall Further Next Year
By Ahmed Rouaba
Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) — Crude oil prices will continue to fall next year, OPEC President Chakib Khelil said today.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will “take the appropriate measures at the next meeting to preserve stability in the international market,” Khelil, who is also Algeria’s energy minister, told reporters today in Algiers.
OPEC will discuss production levels for the first quarter of 2009 at a meeting in Oran, Algeria, on Dec. 17.
grim (282)-
Tidal wave.
2pm, where is the ppt? Anyone got the beach report for the Caymans?
Credit restricted – No trades list
They are out of money
sastry, you don’t know a Padma, do you? I always check, just in case. Been looking.
“we can quickly race to become a third world country like India.”
[300],
Basically we are a 3rd world country; vast current account defecits financed by huge capital inflows, cheap credit leads to asset bubbles, now spilling over to the economy. Definition of an emerging market.
I heard the markets made Cramer cry today.
Maybe all the suckers he’s ruined have finally reached that black little heart of his.
Hmmm….I just got a $10 credit from one of my unused credit cards. Loyal customer re-ward.
I like the way they say re-ward down here.
Is there a hotline to donate stuff like this to Hank?
I heard the markets made Cramer cry today.
I’ll believe it when I see a for sale sign on his lawn.
FYI
http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=CircuitBreaker
http://www.nyse.com/press/circuit_breakers.html
Not that I’m stupid or unlucky enough to be in the markets. Just highly amused at the spectacle.
SG (284)-
I am fairly certain that this is one of the signs of the Apocalypse.
grim (298)-
Geez. Now it only takes 1-12 minutes for one of these crooks to get a nickname in the blogosphere.
Warbucks Jr?
sastry (300)-
What race? It’s over. Now, we’re settling in and getting comfy with our Third World designation.
Cramer is on CNBC at the moment. He is calm but funny.
SG (301)-
Ixnay on the RTC people. They’d be out of their depth here…they handled actual assets that had real, tangible value.
Cramer chokes up:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/27045406#27045406
But sadly doesn’t choke to death.
Grim
GTG Sat night at Killing Joke?
Now too late for any halting. Hold onto your hats!
http://www.nyse.com/press/circuit_breakers.html
I’m guessing this is not what the ppt had in mind a few weeks back:
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=AMEX:SKF
Wil E Coyote has a bigger brain than these chimps.
At least I can afford to fill my gas tank up tonight
Couldn’t resist. :)
Here’s some relevant bubble themed halloween costume ideas.
Hope you guys enjoy.
Clot [319],
Those nasty shorts. New rules will now be enacted, only buy and hold will be accepted.
lost,
Thursday the 9th, Starland Ballroom, Streetlight Manifesto?
A big concern with the Market Drop is how Corzine intends to make the State Pension Funds whole?
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 52 percent probability the Fed will slash its benchmark interest rate by three quarters of a point at its Oct. 29 meeting.
From BP. Anybody have their 1999 hat in storage?
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/10/06/dowdownlarge.jpg
[272] schab,
Not sure where you are going with that besides assuaging your ego with insults—it suggests a certain insecurity. I will leave it at that.
Try to make the GTG. Bring your A game.
BC Bob,
We discussed this before, but i have update an NYBOT Dollar index chart. See a trend?
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_lsF4HSdqo04/SOplHD85ZEI/AAAAAAAAAqI/LWbBcD6iwGY/s1600-h/Dollar+Index+Update.bmp
Speaking of apocalypse, anyone think O’Bama’s campaign logo looks like an aquarium logo? He did speak in East Rutherford, and they are talking about putting an aquarium in Xanadu…coincidence??? I think not!
What an irrational market. Tax benefifts for makers of wooden arrows nor rebates on excise taxes for the Rum Industry are not the final arbiter?
a lot of great books go out of print or come from obscure publishers that don’t do business with big bookstore chains. a good library has way more variety than any B&N or Borders.
kettle [328],
Yes, I watch it every day.
[329] tbw,
I thought it reminded me of Amtrak’s logo. Guess I spend too much time on Amtrak.
[Finally took first class on Acela. Nice. Makes it worthwhile taking the train to Boston]
[324] confused-
Wondering how? You get a W-2, don’t you?
I am thinking of staying a PA taxpayer for awhile.
Not sure where you are going with that besides assuaging your ego with insults—it suggests a certain insecurity.
Is this from the same ‘partisan, ‘Econ 101’ poster? Classic.
Psychological Projection, google it.
I will leave it at that.
You keep saying that…
I think the Caymans guys are at their battle stations.
trading in Russia and Brazil was halted today….
Would it be easier to announce when trading was open in russia as opposed to closed?
Sound familiar?
———–
Iceland suspended trading the shares of six major financial institutions today as ministers worked on a plan to help them survive the global financial meltdown.
The stock exchange said that it had decided to temporarily suspend trading in the big three Icelandic banks — Kaupthing, Landsbanki and Glitnir — plus three other institutions — Exista, Straumur and SPRON — to protect equality between investors while waiting for a government announcement on its plans. Bjorgvin Sigurdsson, Business Affairs Minister, said today that a rescue plan was “well on its way” after the country’s banks agreed to sell some of their foreign assets. Mr Sigurdsson, Commerce and Banking Minister, said it was impossible to give further information.
OUCH!!!!
The Icelandic currency droped 30 per cent against the euro.
“The Icelandic currency droped 30 per cent against the euro.”
blame global warming.
I think that this is part of the problem we are facing right now. Unfortunately, this unrealistic mindset has led, in part, to the current economic struggles we are facing. Hopefully people either learn to buy what they can afford or banks stop lending to those who can’t make their payments.
[341],
Rock Chalk!
who bought on today’s dip?
NOT ME!
Iceland’s currency has dropped so far that they can’t buy the vowels they desperately need.
“As of 2007, Iceland is ranked as the most developed country in the world by the United Nations’ Human Development Index.[7] It is also the fourth most productive country per capita, and one of the most egalitarian, as rated by the Gini coefficient.”
oops!
Household worth falls $6 Trillion in US as consumers stop buying everything
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/06/business/06econ.html?_r=2&hp=&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1223280277-jEfTGKfvpojNutaKY8nNWw&oref=slogin
dow 10,000.
i smell manipulation.
2pm, where is the ppt? Anyone got the beach report for the Caymans?
Tasty waves ’til 2:30 it seems…
Grim, still have physical you want to get rid of?
ppt reported back to work and saved the day.
A market sell off spread around the globe last night and is about to reach U.S shores as this is being written. This current round of selling was precipitated by a banking crisis in a number of European countries and in Korea over the weekend. Several Eurozone states moved to guarantee bank deposits and large bank bailouts from last week had to be restructured to make them work. The Asian bourses and Israel was the first to open after this news and the pronounced selling took place from the get go, with a number of exchanges recording crash level drops.
The trouble started on Saturday when the a plan for a coordinated bailout of the European banking system fell apart. Sunday, Germany moved to guarantee all bank deposits (Ireland was the first to do so last week). Austria and Denmark quickly followed suit and then so did Sweden . At the same time, Euro governments moved to shore up a number of troubled banks to prevent the problem from spreading. Germany had to restructure the rescue deal for lender Hypo Real Estate (after only one week), BNP Paribas agreed to buy a majority stake in Fortis which had been partially nationalized by Belgium and the Netherlands last Monday, and UniCredit, Italy’s second-biggest bank, announced that it needed to raise capital. Tiny Iceland looked like it was about to become the first country with a banking system that completely collapsed. Across the world in Asia, South Korea’s finance minister said Korean banks were having trouble securing funds in foreign currencies and that the government would offer loans from its reserves.
When markets resumed trading, the results were ugly. Israel was down 7% at one point, as was Russia. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong and the mainland Shanghai index experienced crash level drops of 5.0% and 5.4% respectively. Indonesia was the worst hit market with a 10% drop. Australia, India, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand were hard hit as well. The Nikkei in Japan was in slightly better shape than China, falling only 4.25% to 10,473 (well below the low of 14,000 plus bottom that it hit in 1992).
Europe, which is still trading as this is being written, followed Asia’s lead. The major stock indices – the DAX in Germany, the FTSE in England, and the CAC-40 in France all fell between 4% and 5% after trading opened. Smaller countries were fairing worse with Norway down 6% and Austria down more than 8%. Oil fell to just over $90 a barrel, but gold and silver were rallying as is usually the case during financial crises. As happened last Monday morning, the precious metal rallies were taking place even though the U.S. dollar was up (the euro was down two cents against it).
As has been the case ad nauseum, central banks in Europe were pumping huge amounts of liquidity into the financial system to control the crisis. None of the previous moves have had any lasting effects, nor will this one. The next likely government action is a coordinated global interest rate cut, which we should be seeing soon. When this doesn’t work, you should assume that trading bans (such as no short selling at all) will be extended and then no selling at all will be allowed because the stock markets themselves will be closed down for a day or two or even a week or more.
so what exactly was that 700 billion supposed to do?????
Secondly, On Sep 18 Bernanke stated he had 800 Billion he could spend but he now announces that they will hand out 900 billion??? where is the extra 100 billion coming from?
What happens when the FED burns up all of its cash????
And
Fed Boosts Cash Auctions to $900 Billion, May Do More
The Federal Reserve will double its auctions of cash to banks to as much as $900 billion and is considering further steps to unfreeze short-term lending markets as the credit crunch deepens. “The Federal Reserve stands ready to take additional measures as necessary to foster liquid money-market conditions,” the central bank said in a statement released in Washington today.
Fed and Treasury officials are “consulting with market participants on ways to provide additional support for term unsecured funding markets,” the statement said. As part of today’s steps, the Fed will increase its auctions under the 28-day and 84-day Term Auction Facility operations to $150 billion each. The two forward TAF auctions in November will be increased to $150 billion each, the Fed said.
The central bank will also begin paying interest on bank reserves. Payments on required reserves will be made at the average targeted federal funds rate established by the Federal Open Market Committee over each reserve maintenance period less 10 basis points. The Fed gained the authority to pay interest on reserves under the $700 billion financial-rescue legislation approved last week.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ad_vdapfkxao&refer=news
———————————————
from the NYTimes on Sep 16
“The Fed is very stretched, and that’s why they’ve asked the Treasury to go ahead with these proposals,” said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP and a longtime analyst of the Fed’s market operations. “You don’t want the market wondering whether the Fed has enough reserves to handle the next supplicant.”
Indeed, the role of the Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, almost seemed to unnerve a leading House Democrat.
“He can make any loan he wants under any terms to any entity or individual in America that he thinks is economically justified,” said Representative Barney Frank, Democrat of Massachusetts and chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.
“I asked the chairman if he had $85 billion to bestow in this way. He said ‘I have $800 billion ”
“No one in a democracy unelected should have $800 billion to dispense as he sees fit,” Mr. Frank said.
h!!p://www.nytimes_com/2008/09/18/business/18fed.html
so what exactly was that 700 billion supposed to do?????
Secondly, On Sep 18 Bernanke stated he had 800 Billion he could spend but he now announces that they will hand out 900 billion??? where is the extra 100 billion coming from?
What happens when the FED burns up all of its cash????
And
Fed Boosts Cash Auctions to $900 Billion, May Do More
The Federal Reserve will double its auctions of cash to banks to as much as $900 billion and is considering further steps to unfreeze short-term lending markets as the credit crunch deepens. “The Federal Reserve stands ready to take additional measures as necessary to foster liquid money-market conditions,” the central bank said in a statement released in Washington today.
Fed and Treasury officials are “consulting with market participants on ways to provide additional support for term unsecured funding markets,” the statement said. As part of today’s steps, the Fed will increase its auctions under the 28-day and 84-day Term Auction Facility operations to $150 billion each. The two forward TAF auctions in November will be increased to $150 billion each, the Fed said.
The central bank will also begin paying interest on bank reserves. Payments on required reserves will be made at the average targeted federal funds rate established by the Federal Open Market Committee over each reserve maintenance period less 10 basis points. The Fed gained the authority to pay interest on reserves under the $700 billion financial-rescue legislation approved last week.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ad_vdapfkxao&refer=news
———————————————
from the NYTimes on Sep 16
“The Fed is very stretched, and that’s why they’ve asked the Treasury to go ahead with these proposals,” said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP and a longtime analyst of the Fed’s market operations. “You don’t want the market wondering whether the Fed has enough reserves to handle the next supplicant.”
Indeed, the role of the Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, almost seemed to unnerve a leading House Democrat.
“He can make any loan he wants under any terms to any entity or individual in America that he thinks is economically justified,” said Representative Barney Frank, Democrat of Massachusetts and chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.
“I asked the chairman if he had $85 billion to bestow in this way. He said ‘I have $800 billion ”
“No one in a democracy unelected should have $800 billion to dispense as he sees fit,” Mr. Frank said.
link to bernanke sep 18 article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/18/business/18fed.html
“so what exactly was that 700 billion supposed to do?????”
Replace golden parachutes with golden lifeboats.
323 Grim
Nope. Don’t know them. Meat Beat Manifesto is playing 11/19 but I may have to be at work late that night.
From USA Today: “SAN ANTONIO, Texas (AP) — As global markets plunged, President Bush on Monday said “it’s going to take awhile” for the government’s $700 billion financial rescue plan to bolster the troubled U.S. economy.
Bush said the purpose of the package was to unlock the nation’s credit freeze “to get money moving again.” But, he added: “We don’t want to rush into the situation and have the program not be effective.”
————————————
But it’s okay to rush and approve this bailout so we can take our time with it. So glad we had the huge market rebound today when the nation could breath easier knowing we had a bailout plan in place.
It looks like everyone realized between the bill failing and passing that this would not fix anything. But, hey, we can spend the next decade paying off the cost of this bailout plan.
haha.. i just had a flashback to a humorous moment in the VP debate last week. when Palin referred to the Democractic ticket (accidentally) as “Obama and Obiden”. Biden smirked ear to ear on that one. not sure if anyone else caught that.
Tom [354],
Lifeboats?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26907542/displaymode/1107/s/2/framenumber/10/
Kansas (341)-
Where’s Roy?
I bought at 680 points down a little bit of stuff and I plan on selling in morning.
Subprime Ninja Loans for the banks….
The Federal Reserve is working with the US Treasury on plans for a dramatic move into unsecured lending in the hope that this extreme step could help bring credit markets back to life.
As well as unsecured lending to banks, this could lead to the Fed directly purchasing commercial paper or funding a special purpose vehicle set up to do this.
Any unsecured lending would be a radical departure for the Fed. Central banks the world over almost never make unsecured loans, and the Fed has never done so in its history.
It would allow the Fed to address two key problems in the financial system directly: the freezing of the term interbank money market, which covers all but overnight borrowing, and the rapid contraction of the commercial paper market.
However, the US central bank does not believe it has the legal mandate to make unsecured loans on which there is a reasonable likelihood of some loss. So it needs the Treasury to guarantee losses on the loans, probably under new authorities granted by Congress last week with the passage of the $700bn (€518bn, £402bn) Paulson plan.
The Fed and Treasury are working together on how that might work but were not ready to announce it on Monday.
It is awkward for the Treasury to pivot to supporting a big unsecured lending programme when the core of its pitch to Congress was the plan to purchase troubled mortgage-related assets.
There remains some chance that the US authorities are not be able to reach agreement. But the urgency of the situation – and the fact that the Fed referred to unsecured lending in a press release on Monday – suggests that it will happen.
The core of the problem in the interbank market is the lack of availability of term unsecured loans. Banks can get some term funding, but only on a collateralised basis, which helps explain the extreme demand for Treasury securities used for collateral purposes. Unsecured borrowing rates for any significant period of time – such as the three-month Libor (London interbank offered rate) – are sky high. In practice, most financial institutions are now unable to get term loans without collateral, and are funding themselves heavily in the overnight market.
This reliance on overnight money is dangerous for the financial system. It makes banks vulnerable to short-term market dislocations or loss of confidence, increasing the likelihood of failures and firesales of assets.
There are two reasons why banks cannot obtain term unsecured loans from the private market. There is a classic financial-crisis co-ordination problem, characterised as: “I won’t lend you money for a month if I think that everyone else will only lend you money for a day, allowing them to pull out tomorrow and leave me stranded.” This “roll-over” risk is a form of liquidity risk. The second reason is the credit risk of lending to banks, which has been elevated by the financial and economic turmoil .
The Fed’s existing liquidity operations – ramped up again on Monday – reduce liquidity risk by providing a large backstop source of funds. But they are imperfect substitutes for unsecured borrowing, as they are only available on a secured basis. Unsecured term loans – for instance at 100 or 150 basis points over the federal funds rate for three-month money – would provide a near-perfect substitute.
The unsecured Fed term loan rate would act as a ceiling for Libor. Banks would be able to use these loans to reduce their reliance on overnight borrowing, making the system more stable.
Moreover, banks would in theory become more willing to lend spare funds to each other, reviving the private interbank market, since the borrower or lender could turn to the Fed for unsecured loans if it suddenly needed additional liquidity.
The Fed is also actively considering using unsecured lending to shore up the collapsing commercial paper market, in which many corporations as well as financial institutions raise funds.
The US central bank could either buy commercial paper (a form of unsecured debt), or support a special purpose vehicle that would buy this debt with a liquidity line from the Fed and credit support from Treasury.
Another option under consideration is for the Fed to loan money to money market mutual funds to finance their holdings of commercial paper. The Fed is exploring this, but most money funds are wary of leveraging up and worry that this could lead to investors remaining in a fund being exposed to increasing risk. That is why the authorities are having to explore the radical option of buying commercial paper themselves.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ce6dca6c-93ce-11dd-9a63-0000779fd18c.html
zomg!!!!11!!eleventy!11 What’s cooler, ninja loans or pirate loans?
BAC getting slammed afterhours.
Dawg (361)-
Somalian pirates. Period.
Matey. Arrrgh!
John (362)-
Pardon me, whilst I shed a tear.
A.I.G. Uses $61 Billion of Fed Loan
By MARY WILLIAMS WALSH
The American International Group said on Friday that it had already drawn down $61 billion of the $85 billion emergency bridge loan it received from the Federal Reserve two weeks ago, an announcement that startled credit ratings agencies.
The emergency loan was supposed to buy the company time to sell its troubled assets in an orderly manner. But the sell-off has not yet begun, and now the insurer faces the additional pressure of trying to sell the businesses at a time when potential buyers are having trouble borrowing money.
Moody’s downgraded A.I.G.’s senior unsecured debt on Friday and said it might downgrade other types of the company’s debt, which could make it more expensive for A.I.G. to borrow money and do business.
In response to questions, Mr. Liddy said it was impossible to say exactly how much money A.I.G. would have to raise to pay back the Fed and emerge from its crisis as a smaller company with adequate capital.
“It’s kind of a Rubik’s Cube,” he said. “We need to be very flexible” because of the fluid economic environment.
He said that in addition to using the $85 billion Fed loan, A.I.G. would be able to participate in the $700 billion bailout program signed into law by President Bush on Friday. The additional help from the Treasury might ease some of its financial burdens, Mr. Liddy said.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/04/business/04insure.html?_r=2&em=&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print
NCC falling deeper into zombie zone afterhours.
vodka (366)-
I’m impressed. I actually thought they’d burn up the whole 85 bn last week.
vodka (366)-
“He said that in addition to using the $85 billion Fed loan, A.I.G. would be able to participate in the $700 billion bailout program signed into law by President Bush on Friday. The additional help from the Treasury might ease some of its financial burdens, Mr. Liddy said.”
Just saying this should earn this dolt a set of leg irons and an orange jumpsuit.
Well, I spend a good part of the day tied up in meetings and come out for just long enough to find the Dow down more than 770 points. I go back in and come out to find it down less than 400. It must have been like riding a coaster out at Cedar Point. Wow!
“Moodys downgraded A.I.G.s senior unsecured debt on Friday”
What were the odds of THAT happening.
re: #370 Shore Guy – if you lift you hands in the air and yell wheeeee it makes it more fun.
enjoy the ride!
The curbs will be triggered tomorrow.
Sean (360)-
I had to re-read that article.
This is the equivalent of the blasting mechanism being strapped to a hydrogen bomb.
Paradise just may be drinking a Pacifico while eating a mango on a stick under a palapa on a Mexican Beach.
375 Gator
I live through you.
Lemon brothers…
I’m still laughing at you, you sorry sons of bitches!!
ha ha ha
SAS
I think sas is channeling Booyah.
like I said back in 04,
the plunge protection team wants to keep the DOW above 10k.
SAS
sas-
Best part of all was LEH getting bitch-slappped with 138 bn of JPMs worthless paper as they circled the drain.
I have a nasty history with Lemon brothers.
SAS
In about 48 hours, the ppt will just be hoping that the roof stays attached to their little beachside cabana in the Caymans.
(381)-
Did they hire you for surveillance…or liquidation?
Bring back Booyah! Bob!!!
Refresh my memory: What’s ppt again, Clot?
“Did they hire you for surveillance…or liquidation?”
I did a stint for them sometime ago.
Set up phony fake interviews. Put my neck on the line.
Come to find out, they.. well… maybe at the next GTG I will tell you the rest of the story.
SAS
Can one of you lawyers make any sense of this?:
http://www.supremelaw.org/authors/cooper/cooper.htm
yes, Fall is in the air…
and so is the return of one of my favorites:
tomato & garlic soup.
SAS
ppt = plunge protection team
“Stint”. I like that word. Benign, yet fraught with innuendo.
Did your “stint” involve pre-paid cellphones and plastic firearms?
“I did a stint for them sometime ago”
after the Cold War.
SAS
If BAC crosses under $24, is it in the zombie zone?
Just asking.
“Did your “stint” involve pre-paid cellphones and plastic firearms?”
I can’t spill all the beans.
about the cellphones, it was CDMA technology. Flip your cellphone over, and you my friend, can thank me anytime for that.
:)
SAS
[387] Clot,
No, and for good reason. It is tinfoil hat material. Tax court constantly gets cases like this, as does Fed Claims. Tax Court and districtu courts routinely have bounced them, thus there is no avenue through the courts to invalidate the IRS.
# 373 – The curbs will be triggered tomorrow.
Clot, any particular reason or just a gut feeling?
“Damn It Feels Good To Be a Banksta”
http://www.sinfest.net/archive_page.php?comicID=2952
Pat [#306]
Pat. I know a Padma. However, it is a fairly common name.
Sastry
[387] Clot: Yeah, I’ve heard that stuff about how the Federal Income Tax is unconstitutional, etc. Whether it was constitutional or not, the government says that it is, and we all owe money.
clot 387, Nom
If half of the stuff in that link is accurate then how dies the government rebut it? Just ignore it?
ah well this……..
lostinny Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
203 ChiFi
Yes I see that. I’m not sure I like the logo though. Ah well.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/dertranslator/2918250767/
Clotpoll Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 5:22 pm
If BAC crosses under $24, is it in the zombie zone?
Just asking.
The question is when do you cross into the bonehead zone?…..you are asking for trouble….just rake in the cash and don’t function as the de facto investment guru…..you are partially hedged…everyone else on these threads is effectively naked, and you are carrot-sticking the donkey…..stop
#387
“Can one of you lawyers make any sense of this?”
Clot– this is tilting at windmills stuff. Please see the history of Irwin Schiff (father of the famous Peter Schiff) for an example of the failure of this theory.
@chifi: no donkeys here, just raging bears
400 Chifi
Thanks. :)
I don’t know how my husband deals with this.
Is anybody buying heating oil? I keep watching oil prices drop. I am not sure if heating oil is refined daily or if my provider pre-purchased in the summer when oil was at $120. What is everybody seeing? I could have purchased a month ago at $4.14 per gallon for the winter but I did not.
d2b,
Heating oil peaked in july in $4 territory and is in the high $2 range. Oil prices should continue in a general downward trend.
I am no expert but it looks like the financial crisis is doing you a favor on your heating bill.
expect oil prices to flatten out when russia/Opec announce production cuts. 1Q09?.?.?.
Actually you will see the majority of energy prices coming down in the hear term.
Anyone notice M3 money supply lately???
<img src=””
here it is… M3
http://shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-m3.gif?hl=1” border=”0″ alt=”Chart of U.S. Money Supply Growth”
sry :( last time
http://tinyurl.com/3lmmky
kettle1,
looks like Hal Lindsey maybe right?
SAS
tosh (395)-
Gut. My roiling, rancid gut.
A low like today’s intraday will be tested and re-tested.
“On Passage of the Bailout”
http://tinyurl.com/3jxj5b
“RON PAUL ON BAILOUT”
http://tinyurl.com/4uyzzz
Plume (394)-
Yeah, the whole invalidation of the IRS and tax evasion thing is the part I get.
What I don’t get is the part about admiralty law being the MO of all US courts and what that means in terms of reclamation of one’s straw man and the UCC’s priority over the Constitution.
If I’m barking at the moon on this one, tell me to shut up, and I will.
“Gut. My roiling, rancid gut.”
LOL! – Clot, if you don’t mind, what did you study in college? You have quite a way with the English language.
re: #407 -Kettle1 – my feeling is prices will decline right after the election, remember OPEC voted to cut production at their last meeting in an attempt to keep prices above $100 a barrel. The Saudis walked away from that meeting saying they would not cut production to keep their promise to GWB and Cheney. Once GWB and Cheney are out of the picture there is little to keep the Saudis pumping at current capacity.
Consumption in the USA in July was 7% lower than the same month of the previous year. If we have a severe recession a further drop in consumption of several MPBP is in the cards.
I would say the Saudis may pull back as well, King Saud said recently that he wants to keep reserves for future generation.
On the flip side Canadian tar sands are relying heavily on financing to expand their operations, if tar sands companies fail do the drop in the price of oil and and 4-5 mbpd of production evaporates oil could simply even out at current prices.
“you are partially hedged”
Chi,
Clot is the quintessential Texas hedger. He hedges his long gold with long gold stocks.
Sastry, thanks, after I posted to you, I did another of my periodic searches. Found her, I think. Just have to get up the courage to e-mail an old friend after 20-something years. Maybe, like Grim, I need to bite the bullet and do the Facebook.
“A low like today’s intraday will be tested and re-tested.”
Clot,
IMO, ultimately fail. We’ll have many false bottoms along the way; bear, fannie, the Bergabe .75 panic, rate cut [rogue trader], just to name a few. Hopefully, there will be a surprise rate cut soon [not a surprise any more]. Give an opportunity to dish more out a higher levels.
BC –
I am praying for a rate cut and a rally to fade.
“US Economy Collapsing”
http://tinyurl.com/3qujdu
does the Fed really think that any of us with $$$ in the bank plan on investing in the stock market? I’d rather make garbage in interest than risk losing any of it.
when are people up for talking about how to stake out a foreclosure? is trying to wedge open a window late at night a terrible idea? you know, just to make sure the old bitter owners didn’t let pigs roam the foyer and family room before walking away …
401k Statements mail next week folks, question is what will Joe 6 pack think?
Got cash?
Did anyone see the report on CNBC that 21% of car buyers with 800+ credit scores could not get a loan last month?
chi (401)-
I wasn’t even asking that question in an investment vein. I’m just wondering when the sewage starts to bubble up into the money center banks enough to make people question even their viability.
I think I disclaim my actions enough here. And- once again- I’m not the criminal. Dick Fuld and Klink have that designation all to themselves.
vic (418)-
“Clot, if you don’t mind, what did you study in college?”
Beer. Wiki. Girls.
BC Bob Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 7:07 pm
“you are partially hedged” Chi, Clot is the quintessential Texas hedger. He hedges his long gold with long gold stocks.
Bost: my point is that he prefers if his brokerage doesn’t go into the $hitter, but at least he gets a nice quaff of SKF to sooth his anus….
428……..Yes! I caught that too….damn.
I bought my car in May of this year….with a high credit score….(but not that high) and whoa….that is pathetic.
Clotpoll Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
chi (401)- I think I disclaim my actions enough here. And- once again- I’m not the criminal. Dick Fuld and Klink have that designation all to themselves.
clot: I guess desperate times call for desperate measures…..we haven’t seen murder and mayhem yet, but I think it is in the hopper. With the tech boom it was a bunch of geeks that didn’t shower. Now we have massive egos that will have a difficult time digesting this…..not to say that there haven’t always been massive egos, but tech geeks relied on finance, the real estate guys relied on finance, but now the FINANCE guys screwed up their own knitting……that’s why the carnage is so big, their were overconfident because it was their turf. They never considered what Chuck D said 20 years ago….
how low can you go? death row? what a brother know….
Perhaps the debt ratio was too much — anyway glad to have NO big ticket items in the future….even the last year of private school ( i hope ) for the little one…on to K-5 Public.
chifi – why are you so anti-SKF? just curious.
chi (433)-
Now you feel me. Fight the power.
The tech guys were a bunch of geeks with crap they cooked up on a card table. They had neat ideas that just got overbought by a rabid bunch of sycophants and wannabes. Yet, ultimately, tech products are a bunch of things that achieve their highest price potential on Day 1, then depreciate forever. The fact that the whole industry is based in Silicon Valley tells you everything you need to know about its zeitgeist.
Wall St? These are criminal megalomaniacs, with serious, serious issues. Everything about these losers will be writ large.
Joe Maddon looks just like a guy I used to know who mailed weird stuff to friends via FedEx.
laughy (435)-
There’s no way he can answer that question.
Re: Tech bubble.
The tech bubble wasn’t a bubble in tech companies it was a bubble in tech company stocks.
It wasn’t created by geeks it was created by VC’s and investment bankers looking to make a killing from IPOs. Finance guys who then sold investors into the hype. Same as with the housing bubble.
The problem was that with new internet companies, you could see a big rate of return quickly from little investment. Many sites started with little or no funding at all and were run out of people’s homes with little overhead. Even Google had their first incorporated address as someone’s garage. The initial investment was $1.1million.
The problem started when the IPO’s started hitting and the investment banks and initial investors started to make a killing. So they just pumped millions of dollars into companies with the goal of getting taking them public. It didn’t matter what the company was trying to do.
Many companies could have done well if it wasn’t for the need to grow fast and recoup millions of dollars of capital.
You can start a website up real cheap and make a profit fast and see tremendous growth. But the mistake was in thinking that you could inject an unlimited supply of money into any company and see the same returns.
Something like selling pet supplies online with a sock puppet could have been a profitable idea if someone started it with a shoestring budget but not so good when millions are invested into it to make it work.
Some companies that didn’t take on VC money are still around and profitable. Maybe they’re only making a few hundred grand or a few mil. Peanuts compared to the expected results when VC’s got involved. The point is they’re still around even if less known.
The same thing happened with housing. People didn’t care who they lent to or if they could pay back. They just wanted to create loans.
It was Wall St that created both bubbles.
So, what are you saying, Tom?
Remodel, rebuild or tear-down?
I’m thinking a new terlet and quart of primer ain’t gonna fix this puppy.
I’m in a strange bidding situation:
House is not listed in MSL
Buyer and seller agent work for same agency
Agents claim seller has accepted full price offer, won’t accept anything less of all cash.
Competing buyer is said to be excluded from listing agreement/commission
Asking price is relatively high for the area and comps
Quite like the place, but don’t want to be have totally be taken for a ride. I was will to pay some premium for it, but that’s like they’re asking for your last shirt and your first born son.
I guess just can wait and see. Maybe the mystery buyer had his down-payment in structured notes from Lehman or similar great investments.
#432 Essex,
I’m glad someone else saw that. I was amazed. The banks have gone from lending 500k to illegal aliens to cutting off 20% of the 800+ credit scores for a 20k car loan.
I hope this is not a trend.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/CRIME/10/06/california.murder.suicide/index.html
A guy in California pulls a john Lis, except he tookk himself out too.
Hey all-
Been a while since I last posted.
Saw the 60 minute program last night
and one stat keeps rolling around in my
head that does’nt add up for me.
They reported that 94 percent of Americans still pay their mortgages on time. So if
only 6 percent are behind then how can
foreclosures be such a big issue?
When I went to school 94 was pretty good.
can someone shed some light on this please?
#443
That’s John List, the Brigadoon family man who took out his family, then went on the lamb for 2 decades.
now they are talking 100bps!!
If you need a car loan you can’t afford a car.
bairen Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 7:47 pm
Did anyone see the report on CNBC that 21% of car buyers with 800+ credit scores could not get a loan last month?
Pat,
I think there might have been too many shody repairs already.
If the house is really worth saving you have to invest in hacking it up and rebuilding a sound foundation before moving on to tackling the more visible areas.
For years people have been trying to fix it but it’s just turned out to be an even bigger problem.
bairen Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
I hope this is not a trend.
A guy in California pulls a john Lis, except he tookk himself out too.
bairen-it-all: there eventually has to be a NYC i-banker/finance version….I just pray it is not pret-a-manger……I already made my call 2 hours ago….
clot: I guess desperate times call for desperate measures…..we haven’t seen murder and mayhem yet, but I think it is in the hopper.
serenity now Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
They reported that 94 percent of Americans still pay their mortgages on time. So if
only 6 percent are behind then how can
foreclosures be such a big issue?
When I went to school 94 was pretty good.
can someone shed some light on this please?
sn: Extrapolating from what I’ve seen, the bulk of the bank’s exposure is in the 6% area, and also the exposure is magnified due to leverage. If you are only using less than $0.05 on the dollar to write coverage and borrow the rest, it does take much to throw you into disarray….
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27044623
This sounds like a good idea to me…
451 – “Fed planning a credit default swap marketplace”
Lost: not sure what this is….I think it a project run by one of the musicians from the Live Monsters tour….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mE45pn_AMW0
BOA to slash mortgage payments:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/06/real_estate/Drastic_plan_slashes_mortgage_costs/index.htm?postversion=2008100616
Good link for checking ratings of bank & CD rates;
http://www.bauerfinancial.com/btc_ratings.asp
417: clot
please don’t go there. pretty please. they are scary scary people.
NOTE THIS ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE SHORTING SECURITIES:
”Also I don’t think investors understand the broad powers of the Treasury which could include direct injection of capital into companies,” Liesman adds. In fact Liesman spoke with Rep. Barney Frank who confirmed the option.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27055787
gtg: montclair is very public transport-able. it would make it more likely that we could attend. esp if it was on a saturday and kid-friendlyish. though could we wait until sas is back in town? ’cause i really want to hear the end of some of his stories.
er, i think. assuming he wouldn’t have to zap me with a memory erasing gun afterwards…
Fannie apparently forgives mortgages, if you shoot yourself like the lady did the other day, in response to foreclosure. Seems like a bad precedence to set. I would think they must treat people equally, therefore, anyone can shoot themselves (non fataly) to avoid foreclosure.
#449 chifi,
I used to be surprised when things like that happened, now I’m surprised they don’t happen more often.
Very sad. It’s just a house. So many people have their priorities out of wack.
Now that I am on the topic of Nostalgia thanks to Gahan…..here is a little Hoboken Hudson Tea nostalgia for me….
http://hoboken411.com/archives/14156#more-14156
There’s no way he can answer that question.
Fair enough, for job-related issues. HOWEVER … isn’t it then sort of weak for him to be bashing the shit out of it?
I respect your knowledge and that you can’t comment on everything, but there’s a word I’m looking for to describe what you’re doing …
#461 chifi,
why would someone build a new structure in NJ with electric heat?
Laughing all the way Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
I respect your knowledge and that you can’t comment on everything, but there’s a word I’m looking for to describe what you’re doing …
LATW: mess with it if it gets your rocks off….but you ain’t winning the lottery and it may not function in the way you suspect it will. If you blow up, take your medicine…..most of all, NO ONE HERE CAN BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE…….my general investment recommendation is that no TRADING should be done in this environment…there are no rules…investing is different, and SKF is not an investment…
bairen Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 11:00 pm
#461 chifi,
why would someone build a new structure in NJ with electric heat?
existing structure with no gas lines that was converted from industrial use…it was the cheapest and quickest way at the time for a building that was made to be rentals…
chi (457)-
Saw it. Along with the item earlier in the day about direct, unsecured Fed lending into corporations.
Every trick they try is like gasoline on the fire.
Down goes Europe, GM just stopped production at all of their European factories.
Humm,
http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2008/20081006150152.aspx
Sean 467 Any link to GM news. Source?
Mike all over CNBC this AM.