From the Record:
No place to hide from foreclosures
Foreclosures continue to rise in North Jersey, with thousands of homeowners in Bergen and Passaic counties in danger of losing their homes.
There were 2,422 foreclosure filings in Bergen County and 3,883 in Passaic from January through August of this year, according to RealtyTrac, which tracks foreclosures nationwide.
By contrast, in the same period last year, Bergen County saw 571 filings and Passaic, 2,594. Those numbers include all foreclosure actions, from the initial bank notice that a homeowner is late on mortgage payments, all the way through to a sheriff’s auction.
“It’s scary. It’s affecting a lot of people,” said Bill Maer, spokesman for the Passaic County Sheriff’s Department.
In all of 2007, 348 properties were auctioned in Passaic County; by mid-October of this year, that number stood at 548, and the county expects it to approach 700 by the end of the year.
…
In New Jersey, foreclosures have had the heaviest impact on urban and working-class towns. In those places, low-income homeowners stretched beyond their limits to buy houses, or borrowed against their homes to pay other bills.But middle-class and even wealthy areas are not immune. Foreclosure actions have been filed this year in Woodcliff Lake, Tenafly, Franklin Lakes and Saddle River, among other affluent towns.
When properties are auctioned these days, they are usually bought back by the lenders. Because housing values have dropped in the last couple of years, most homes in foreclosure are now worth less than the amount owed on the mortgage.
…
Foreclosures are a tragedy for the family involved, of course, but they also affect nearby properties. When banks buy the homes at auction, they put them back on the market, usually priced aggressively for a quick sale. That tends to depress the prices of neighboring properties.
From the Philly Inquirer:
Stormy economy batters town budgets
In a region where a mere rumor of slippery roads can induce panic, David Brill is hoping for a mild, uneventful winter.
Brill, finance director of Tredyffrin Township, has budgeted $700,000 or so to remove snow and ice from the hilly, often-congested roads of the Main Line suburb.
He would be delighted not to spend it.
Like other town business managers throughout the region – and all over the country – Brill is confronting the economic storm that has battered bank accounts, stock portfolios and municipal budgets.
The ripple effects of a declining real estate market, tight credit, and the lower interest rates that have reduced yields on investments are likely to spell budget cuts and higher taxes for hundreds of thousands of property owners in the region in the new year.
Nationally, for the first time in at least 20 years, three major sources of municipal revenue – income taxes, sales taxes and property taxes – are down, said Christopher Hoene, director of policy and research for the National League of Cities.
It may be years before the full impact of the crisis hits town halls. “We’ve only begun to scratch the surface of what those implications are,” says William G. Dressel, executive director of the New Jersey State League of Municipalities. “Everybody’s suffering, and it’s the calm before the storm.”
…
Based on recent figures, levies collected on real estate sales are off 25 percent from last year in New Jersey and 17 percent in Pennsylvania.In Cherry Hill, officials are warning that municipal taxes for property owners might go up 20 percent, or about $150 on average, in the new year. The municipal tax is 13 percent of the property-tax bill.
Towns all over New Jersey are feeling the aid cuts from Trenton, but Cherry Hill officials say it already is clear that the economic crisis is adding to the sting. Reduced building and permit fees and lower investment income from fallen interest rates have cost the township about $1.4 million, spokesman Dan Keashen said.
As in other municipalities, he said, Cherry Hill is scrambling for ways to lower costs. However, Keashen estimated that 80 percent of the township’s costs were locked in as salaries, benefits packages, debt service and capital expenditures. The situation is similar elsewhere.
…
Dressel said that in the months and years ahead, other shoes are likely to drop.“It doesn’t take an economist or a wizard looking into the crystal ball to be able to see that if things don’t turn around soon, things are going to get considerably worse,” he said.
“We may look back and see these as the good old days.”
From MarketWatch:
U.S. crisis effort may have further roiled markets: Lacker
The U.S. government’s “disparate” responses to the problems at financial firms may have confused market participants as to which companies would get help and in what form, thus adding to the market turmoil, said Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, according to The Wall Street Journal. “Shifts in expectations regarding official intervention may have added volatility to financial-asset markets that were already roiled by an increasingly uncertain growth outlook,” Lacker said at Hebrew University of Jerusalem, according to prepared remarks. Investors and Wall Street executives have criticized the government for sending mixed signals about which companies it would use taxpayer funds to support, the Journal reported.
Second. :(
From Bloomberg:
Commodities Send Sell Signal Before Long Recession
A record plunge in commodities may signal the U.S. is headed for the longest recession since 1981, just after Ronald Reagan became president and the economy began a 16-month slump.
Industrial raw materials measured by the Journal of Commerce fell at an annual rate of as much as 56 percent last week, the most since 1949 and worse than the declines before every recession since then. Crude oil, copper and wheat tumbled more than 50 percent from records this year as the U.S. economy declined in the third quarter by the most since 2001.
“The industrial sector, which was helping to keep the recession relatively mild, has completely given way and now we need to be prepared for a much more severe recession,” said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute in New York, which compiles the Journal of Commerce data. “It’s at least going to look something like what we saw in the early 1980s, but it could be worse.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=a3ka53SCCQ4g
Bloomberg Yen weakens vs. dollar
I’m fascinated by all of the “carry trade” talk …still investigating.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/risk-appetite-leaves-dollar-yen/story.aspx?guid=%7B05BE1758-B8BC-4DA7-8933-39ADBB9E3A32%7D&dist=msr_1
Market Watch – Dollar, Yen retreat on risk appetite
http://seekingalpha.com/article/103542-carry-trade-volatility
Carry trade volatility – Seeking Alpha
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCJa1QFvbmys&refer=home
Bloomberg –
Libor for dollar declines to lowest since Lehman’s bankruptcy
From the WSJ:
Rescue Cash Lures Thousands of Banks
Treasury and banking regulators say as many as 1,800 publicly held institutions could apply for government investments in coming weeks, out of concern that failing to do so could make them losers in a banking sector reshaped by the Treasury’s $700 billion rescue plan.
Depending upon conditions still being crafted by Treasury, thousands more private banks could apply for government capital as well, a Treasury spokeswoman said Sunday.
From Bloomberg:
EU Says Europe Economy Probably Already in Recession
The European Commission said the region’s economy probably entered a recession this year and will stagnate in 2009, increasing pressure on political leaders to collaborate on measures to tackle the financial crisis.
Economic growth in the euro area will slump to 0.1 percent next year, the worst performance since 1993, the Brussels-based commission said today. It also estimated that gross domestic product will shrink for three consecutive quarters this year and cut its forecast for full-year 2008 growth to 1.2 percent from 1.3 percent previously.
Euro-area finance ministers meet today to try to overcome the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. While France and Germany led European governments in committing a combined $1.7 trillion to protect the region’s banks, and the European Central Bank now offers unlimited loans in an attempt to get credit moving, there has been no unified government response. Chancellor Angela Merkel last week proposed a 50 billion-euro ($64 billion) package to revive the German economy.
“A recession in 2009 seems now unavoidable,” said Jacques Cailloux, chief euro-area economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in London. “Today’s new GDP forecast of 0.1 percent for 2009 by the European Commission still looks too optimistic to us.”
From the WSJ:
Behind AIG’s Fall, Risk Models Failed to Pass Real-World Test
By CARRICK MOLLENKAMP, SERENA NG, LIAM PLEVEN and RANDALL SMITH
Gary Gorton, a 57-year-old finance professor and jazz buff, is emerging as an unlikely central figure in the near-collapse of American International Group Inc.
Mr. Gorton, who teaches at Yale School of Management, is best known for his influential academic papers, which have been cited in speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. But he also has a lucrative part-time gig: devising computer models used by the giant insurer to gauge risk in more than $400 billion of devilishly complicated deals called credit-default swaps.
AIG relied on those models to help figure out which swap deals were safe. But AIG didn’t anticipate how market forces and contract terms not weighed by the models would turn the swaps, over the short term, into huge financial liabilities. AIG didn’t assign Mr. Gorton to assess those threats, and knew that his models didn’t consider them. Those risks have cost AIG tens of billions of dollars and pushed the federal government to rescue the company in September.
The global financial crisis is studded with tales of venerable financial firms failing to protect themselves against the unexpected. In the case of AIG, as with many other firms, the financial horrors were hidden in the enormous market for credit-default swaps, which are a form of insurance against defaults on all sorts of debts.
A close look at AIG’s risk-management operations, and the rapid-fire chain of events that crippled the firm, raises questions about the run-up to the financial crisis: Did firms like AIG plunge into lucrative but perilous new markets without thoroughly understanding the pitfalls? Had the sheer complexity of the financial products made it all but impossible to fully calculate the risk? And did firms put too much faith in computer models to assess dangers?
Black box does it again.
Just in case anyone missed it over the weekend, Cindy found a MUST-READ article:
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/oldupdates/2004/0804.html
it was written in 2004, but is dead-on about what would happen, and what’s next.
it’s very long, but i’ve already emailed it to at least a dozen friends (many of whom probably wont read it).
again, thanks, Cindy
[#10]
Hummmmm… Yes, Yes and uhhh Yes
what i was answering to in 13-
“A close look at AIG’s risk-management operations, and the rapid-fire chain of events that crippled the firm, raises questions about the run-up to the financial crisis: Did firms like AIG plunge into lucrative but perilous new markets without thoroughly understanding the pitfalls? Had the sheer complexity of the financial products made it all but impossible to fully calculate the risk? And did firms put too much faith in computer models to assess dangers?”
(12) Yikes – Thank BC Bob. I had never heard of “the carry trade” until he and others began the conversation here. I could just tell – it mattered.
(10) Grim
“The global financial crisis is studded with tales of venerable financial firms failing to protect themselves against the unexpected.”
And, I might add – failing to protect US against the unexpected.
But I also fault those politicians who allowed the gambling (CDS) to proceed unchecked. The 60 minutes piece clearly points out they had a chance, and didn’t even check into the pitfalls.
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4546583n
Sorry – Here’s the 60 minutes piece..
Breaking news: The Dem nominee for pres reads this blog and he reportedly will add BC Bob and Clot to the cabinet.
No link yet, but it was just on Good Morning America
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNoYnmqKHwBo
don’t know if this posted
“A record plunge in commodities….Bloomberg Yen weakens vs. dollar”
It can’t be true! All the “experts” here said commodities won’t go down and dollar will collapse!
I can’t remember who were the clueless clowns advocating investing in gold, oil (and other commodities) and getting rid of USD, but just to remind everybody: This is a housing blog. Don’t take investment advise from here. (hmm, actually, the exact opposite investment strategy will probably make you rich)
20#, jamil, you are offending the main stream pros of this blog.
>I can’t remember who were the clueless clowns advocating investing in gold, oil (and other commodities) and getting rid of USD, but just to remind everybody: This is a housing blog. Don’t take investment advise from here. (hmm, actually, the exact opposite investment strategy will probably make you rich)
jamil: #1 you are correct; #2 you are a punk
jam master jamil & bipolar: I rather take liberal doses of you guys in lieu of the Wile E. Coyote of Doom.
Watched NJ senator debate yesterday [recorded?]. Frank is a moron.
Dennis Gartman, an economist and editor of the Suffolk, Virginia-based Gartman Letter, exited all his gold positions, except for coins he purchased at the end of September. “I feared the whole financial system was coming to a halt, and you need a little gold in that case,” he said. “I doubt it will anymore. But it sure felt like it a month ago. There’s no value in gold right now.”
From CNN/Money:
Economists predict recession to last through 2009
A survey of top economists released Monday shows that the vast majority of them believe the economy has fallen into a recession that will continue throughout all of 2009.
According to the National Association of Business Economists, 90% of the 102 members responding were more pessimistic about the economy than they had been in July.
The economists indicated that a recession is likely to continue at least through the end of next year, with 79% saying the economy will grow less than 1% and 38% saying the economy will shrink next year.
“There has been a sharp decline in current and near-term expectations among economists,” said Ken Simonson, a member of the NABE committee that conducted the survey. “This represents a big turnabout in attitude about the economy.”
I Am In A New York State of Mind……
http://www.nypost.com/seven/11032008/news/regionalnews/faith_goes_wireless_136599.htm
#25 – Nice
#25 Heck we haven’t even had Bretton Woods III yet.
#26 grim: Looks like the economists are a little late to the party.
Chicago – I have been actively seeking information recently regarding the “supposed” collapse of the dollar. I think I hear you saying, I don’t need to worry so much. Am I correct? (Disclaimer – I have -0- gold.)
From MarketWatch:
Circuit City to shut 155 U.S. stores to preserve cash
Struggling electronics retailer Circuit City Stores Inc. said Monday that it’s shutting 155 U.S. stores, reducing future store openings and aggressively renegotiating certain leases to help preserve cash after its liquidity deteriorated and its vendors have restricted the company’s payment terms.
Added another story to the blog post above..
bi “20#, jamil, you are offending the main stream pros of this blog.”
It may hurt their feelings, but the damage is greater if people actually believed the investment advise garbage. The great value of this blog was to see the housing bubble early on and advise people on that (and closely related issues). That was valuable service.
Beyond that, the advise has been outright dangerous (wrt oil, gold, commodities, USD).
and besides, the people who correctly predicted the collapse of commodities have been ridiculed for their prediction (as has other people’s predictions, such as “no more writedowns” – which if course was bad prediction).
Jamil,
Any comments?
http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?vol=Y&jav=adv&grid=Y&divd=Y&org=stk&sym=DXZ8&data=H&code=BSTK&evnt=adv
bi,
You can have fun also;
http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?vol=Y&jav=adv&grid=Y&divd=Y&org=stk&sym=GCZ8&data=H&code=BSTK&evnt=adv
bob: what’s there to comment? I know very well how USD has performed in recent years and how it performed in recent weeks after the great panic.
From the WSJ:
Société Générale’s Net Falls 84% on Write-Downs
By NICOLAS PARASIE
Société Générale SA Monday said net profit in the third quarter fell by 84%, as the French bank increased its provisions and continued to reduce its exposure to risky assets.
France’s second-largest bank said net profit fell to €183 million ($233.2 million) from €1.12 billion in the same period a year earlier. Third-quarter revenue slid 5% to €5.11 billion from €5.38 billion in the year-earlier period.
SocGen’s various write-downs in the third quarter translated into a total pretax hit of €1.21 billion on the revenue figure.
That figure includes write-downs on SocGen’s monoline exposure and the impact of the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings. Without this negative impact, net profit would have been around €1 billion, in line with SocGen’s earlier guidance.
35#, bob,
to me, it is very bullish mean-reversion to 100 level.
36#, i would expect it will swing between 600 and 800 for a while before taking any direction.
So, is the recession over??!?? Whew! Jamil and Bi have pulled us out of the fire.
bi,
Have some more fun;
http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/com-dow-au.htm
jamil,
Are you saying that the prediction of commodity collapse or a dollar rise was a less risky bet than the opposite? The risks associated with either sides of those trades are massive and largely speculative.
I can’t believe that you would, in the same breath, chide someone for talking about a risky play, and then applaude someone else for the same bet.
# bi Says:
November 3rd, 2008 at 8:40 am
20#, jamil, you are offending the main stream pros of this blog.
>I can’t remember who were the clueless clowns advocating investing in gold, oil (and other commodities) and getting rid of USD, but just to remind everybody: This is a housing blog. Don’t take investment advise from here. (hmm, actually, the exact opposite investment strategy will probably make you rich)
be patient, you imbecile. ah, why do i even bother …
vic: The real recession is just starting. If the congress/POTUS would take a long holiday (say, 1 year) we would be fine but the coming tax hikes, free trade restrictions, forced unionization and various gov’t mandates for businesses will make this a long-lasting one.
36#, i would expect it will swing between 600 and 800 for a while before taking any direction.
Case in point.
“I can’t remember who were the clueless clowns advocating investing in gold”
Jamil,
Suppose the clown bought in 2003, at 342 and is locked in at 947.50. Maybe it’s the same idiot who was short AIG?
Having never made a comment about commodities or currencies, nor an investment in either, I could not help but notice that Jamil has the same short-term memory that inflicts Bi.
Bi: I didn’t here you praising your XHB when SRS hit 205 in the last few weeks? Where were you?
That’s right, it was a short-term call.
Clot: In post 644 from the weekend discussion, you said prices in your area have to fall another 10% to release the “pant” up demand.
What year would that bring prices back to in your area?
41#, from the “long term dow/gold ratio”, my reading is that dow is undervalue. but extreme events could make it more undervalue before reaching to fair value, which is around 10500 based on current gold price.
Two NJ Circuit City locations will close:
Livingston
Freehold
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/CC/341737597x0x245809/2BFAC9D9-6CEF-4027-9E51-1C635F42F7A7/110308%20Store%20Closing%20List.pdf
“36#, i would expect it will swing between 600 and 800 for a while before taking any direction.”
bi,
It can go to $625 and still be long term bullish, technically, [fib].
Nuf said, talk housing.
47#, stu, i did point it out in a weekend that XHB was in line with S&P 500. what i said last year was longing XHB and shorting lenders.
>Bi: I didn’t here you praising your XHB when SRS hit 205 in the last few weeks? Where were you?
#44 jamil:if the congress/POTUS would take a long holiday (say, 1 year) we would be fine
We would be fine based on what? The recession would just peter out over 1 short year?
After all that has happened all we would have to do is sit back and watch everything work out?
Maybe we could have tried that approach before the bailout.
Jim Rogers on Bloomberg, laying the smack down on Klink/Bergabe:
“100 weeks in a row, under oath, dead wrong. Why would anybody listen to these two?”
I hate to be a realtor, wife dragged me to an open house. Ad listed a huge plot size and it was prices similar to houses with same plot size. House had around 20% of the plot usable and they had a steep wooded drop for around 400 feet to a busy road. Worse yet house was paying same tax as houses on other side of street where whole plot was usable. Then knuckle head put a big inground pool right next to house with no fence with two sliders off a deck with no rails where if you triped you would fall right into pool. Of course pictures of pool was from side so you did not see that. House has been on market since Feb and last week got a “100K” price cut. Last two houses that sold on block in 02 and 05 both went for 200K less than he is asking. Realtor had a beautiful book and slide show. One three people showed up to open house and the other couple I saw had a one year old and was pregant and gave the same icy glare to the pool that we did.
3b (48)-
2002-03, approximately. I fully expect a “bottoming out” to occur at pre-2001 levels, but I don’t have a feel as to how long it’ll take to get there.
All the new proposed modifications, workouts and bailouts could make it take 5-7 years. If these things get jammed through, Japan’s lost decade will seem like a nanosecond in comparison.
“Are you saying that the prediction of commodity collapse or a dollar rise was a less risky bet than the opposite? ”
Betting that long-term commodity prices (just like house prices) will revert to the mean was the safest bet.
Any prediction and market-timing is risky, but the people who knew anything about history and oil, knew that “this time is different”, “they don’t make any more oil” BS was just that: BS, caused by speculation and unsustainable growth.
Besides, I believe in diversification (disclaimer: I have half of my assets in non-USD denominated currencies, much of it in safe instruments, and I didn’t change my investment policy based on the hysteric atmosphere).
Jamil,
You seem awfully certain that the Dems in power are going to destroy America, at least financially. I can think of countless ways that one can profit off of your clear and confident predictions. So are you going to put your money where your mouth is? I’ve bet against the Laffer curve and have profited handsomely. So why don’t you bet against the great redistribution of wealth since you appear to be equally sure about it. My guess is that you wouldn’t be happy if the Dems were grossly successful. And even if they turn the ship around, I’m sure you will attribute it to 8 years of the W tax cuts for sure, just as the credit crisis was caused only by Dodd and had nothing to do with Gramm and this election will have been illegally manipulated by Acorn.
Rogers now demanding the Federal Reserve be closed. Says its closing will “solve everything”.
FWIW, as Squawk gets worse and worse, Bloomberg keeps getting better.
61#, bloomberg has always been better except its political news and commentaries.
http://groups.google.com/group/misc.legal/browse_thread/thread/f5991e86efffb21c
It involves dividing land, so, I suppose, it is RE related.
grim (10)-
AIG went to the wrong people for help with risk assessment. Instead of some fat, jazz-loving quant, they should’ve gone to Vegas.
Anybody who runs a successful casino sportsbook could assess this trash better.
“Gary Gorton, a 57-year-old finance professor and jazz buff, is emerging as an unlikely central figure in the near-collapse of American International Group Inc.”
yikes (18)-
There are some, er, “indiscretions” in my past that would certainly disqualify me from holding any position above dog catcher. And, I sorta doubt anarchists have much of a real shot at cabinet-level posts:
“Breaking news: The Dem nominee for pres reads this blog and he reportedly will add BC Bob and Clot to the cabinet.”
Clot: I only listen to Bloomberg on the radio. My other media sources are predominantly the WSJ, Barrons and ValueLine plus an occasional perusal of Seeking Alpha, but that requires a great deal of background checking on the author.
CNBC is for those whose lives revolve around reality television and contest shows. I haven’t watched it for anything but the ticker since my teens.
Would love to see a celebrity death match between Suze Orman and Jim Cramer though.
59 stu: I don’t do market-timing or bets. I have my own investment policy and I can reach my targets without any bets, with financially conservative, globally diversified investment policy. How the actual world-wide stock market will behave in the next 30 years is anybody’s guess. Yes, I’m sure that the forced unionization (end of secret ballots, even McGovern opposes it), tax hikes and anti-business environment will hurt the US, but even if you know it, it would be difficult to time it right and I have no need for that.
Eventually, I can easily escape the US, and try to hide my assets from the IRS and the Civilian National Service brownshirts.
Jamil…Fair enough.
#57 clot: Thanks as always.
[34]-Jam
” It may hurt their feelings, but the damage is greater if people actually believed the investment advise garbage. ”
(I believe this has been said here before)
If people are taking the advise of anonymous blogger’s, (no offense to the panel) the damage is already done & you are an idiot. I have the same compassion for the greedy customers of fraudulent bankers. Buyer & Blogger beware. What ever happened to accountability?
re #67 Globally diverisfed?
What is your target 0?
Markets down more than 70%: Vietnam (-70.5%), Peru (-73.2%), Ireland (-73.4%), Russia (-73.9%), Iceland (-88.7%).
Markets down between 60% and 70%: Hong Kong (-60.1%), Poland (-62.6%), China (-69.8%).
Markets down between 50% and 60%: South Korea (-54.5%), Italy (-55.2%), Egypt (-56.9%), Brazil (-57.2%), Japan (-58.1%), Singapore (-58.2%), Turkey (-58.5%), India (-58.3%).
Markets down between 40% and 50%: Great Britain (-42.3%), Australia (-43.3%), U.S.-S&P 500 (-44.0%), Spain (-46.4%), Germany (-47.0%), Mexico (-48.3%).
Looks like highly paid NJ school administrators are not willing to take one for the team:
November 2, 2008
Cap on N.J. school adminstrator buyouts challenged
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
A proposed cap on payouts for vacation and sick time for New Jersey school administrators is being challenged in federal court on Monday.
The Record of Bergen County reports that taxpayers are footing the bill for more than $36 million in sick pay and vacation time accrued by school administrators.
The newspaper reports that buyouts will reach $9 million in Bergen and Passaic counties alone, and that some school leaders are due to receive six-figure checks when they leave a district because of contracts that allow them to cash out on unused sick and vacation time.
The New Jersey Association of School Administrators has filed suit to
preserve the payouts and challenge a new contract rule that caps accrued
time payouts at $15,000.
http://app.com/article/20081102/NEWS03/81102008
3b was a bear and when it was beary good to be a bear. I see a run for 10K in the dow by year end. I also think any A rated instate muni with a 5% coupon 1-10 year out at or below par is a buy and any A rated Bank bond that the Govt has agreed to bail out with 1-10 maturity and a 8% yield or higher is a buy. I also think GE, AXP, Pfizer, Wells any rock solid top notch blue chip with a dividend is a buy. If you are too chicken to buy the common buy the pref of the blue chip.
RE is not that far from a bottom, maybe 2010 in NY/NJ. The govt and places like Chase are going to prop it up. NY/NJ was not overbuilt. However, it will take one or two years for sellers to sell at the new prices. When it gets near bottom it will stick there for awhile so there is no need to time the bottom as there will be a wide bottom in this U of the RE downturn.
If you can get a 7-8% relatively low risk return on your downpayment in the next year why not? If you have the guts and the knowledge do what BC and 3B do but you better have a job with a pc right in front of you and internet access or you will get burned.
BC and 3b are day traders. I am not. Sorry, if I bore you but I am the suzie orman of this site.
Not to worry about someone taking bad investment advice here and acting on it. I’m sure you can get some TARP money to make up for your ignorance. And if you happen to do well from the investment advice, your taxes on the gains will go to pay for TARP. See, the distribution of wealth has been going on for months already.
“BC and 3b are day traders.”
John,
Can’t speak for 3b, however I am not. I just stated that I have been in a position since 2003. Long freaking day, no?
” not willing to take one for the team:”
Gator,
C’mon. You well know who is going to be taking it. Weeeeeeee, uhhh, weeeeeeeeeeeee.
“Sorry, if I bore you but I am the suzie orman of this site.”
Oh my lord…John is gay… Jamil say: No marriage for you!
I thought Gary was Suzie. Or, is that just on special occasions?
jamil/bi (20, 21)-
Yet another real-life demonstration of the “Beavis and Butthead Rolled Into One” theory.
Ref 72: One of the fallacies of the public sector is that their costs are mandated. Pilots and airline unions took pay cuts when revenues were down and the private sector eliminated defined benefit plans. Why do the laws of physics not apply to the public sector?
chi (25)-
Paper gold in decline…but you can’t get your hands on a ducat anywhere.
Hmmm…
From ClusterStock.com (whatever that is):
Likely S&P 500 Bottom: 600, Down 40 Percent from Here
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/105411/Likely-S&P-500-Bottom-600-Down-40-Percent-from-Here
“The good news: The S&P 500 is trading near fair value. The bad news: If the current post-bubble low follows previous post-bubble lows, the S&P 500 will probably bottom around 600.”
BC (35, 36)-
It’s like trying to reason with your pets.
DL,
The various state legislatures, city councils, etc. have, largely been filled with members of a single family — the Loopners. The sad thing is that they have a genetic condition that makes them illsuited for tough decision making.
bi (39)-
I live for your bold predictions. Will the $800+ breakout occur when Weimar-like hyperinflation begins to rage? What will it go to then? $900?
“36#, i would expect it will swing between 600 and 800 for a while before taking any direction.”
“ClusterStock”
I wonder if it is a euphemism.
Like, when Custer was looking at the forces he faced at Little Big Horn, he may have turned to his aides and said “Boys, we are stocked. We are seriously stocked. In fact this is going to turn into one hell of a cluster stock.”
grim (42)-
“I can’t believe that you would, in the same breath, chide someone for talking about a risky play, and then applaude someone else for the same bet.”
I can. This is what happens when somebody’s brain gets bifurcated by a giant steel plate.
Clot [85],
The expert knows zero about contract expiration and first notice day.
71 Sean “re #67 Globally diverisfed?..What is your target 0?
Markets down more than 70%: Vietnam (-70.5%), Peru (-73.2%), Ireland (-73.4%), Russia (-73.9%), Iceland (-88.7%).”
As I said earlier, I have relatively large portion of my assets in safe instruments and half in various stable non USD currencies. I didn’t have much in emerging markets (only what my global index fund had) and I didn’t sell any stocks so I didn’t lose any money. So yes, stocks are down, but I’m buying them now cheaply (according to pre-set plan) and eventually markets will recover. This is not a zero risk strategy, but the best one I can think of. I’m confident that in ~25 years I have reached my targets. I have no need to gamble with gold or Vietnam’s stock market.
jamil (58)-
Hope that “other currency” isn’t the forint. You may have a teensy problem if it’s Euros, too:
“disclaimer: I have half of my assets in non-USD denominated currencies, much of it in safe instruments, and I didn’t change my investment policy based on the hysteric atmosphere”
He folks,
Back from down under. Australia is backwards. Visited my Gold reserves. Loved it.
Did I miss anything?
Make,
We are all “stocked,” it seems.
Clot,
Half my assets are in foreign currencies.
When I open my wallet I find a two dollar bill, a Canadian coin I got suckered with, and a couple of Pesos.
“Did I miss anything?”
Yeah. Jamil called you, along with me, a clown for owning gold.
oh, and peace, brotherhood, and goodwill have broken out everywhere, including between bi and stu.
John (73)-
Pardon me, but this statement of yours conjures up multiple troubling mental images for me:
“Sorry, if I bore you but I am the suzie orman of this site.”
Have a great day – I found an interesting article in the paper but cannot yet find a link…
“IndyMac gets creative to tackle home foreclosures” Renae Merle-Washington Post –
ISM in the gutter.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Oct. ISM manufacturing index 38.9% vs 43.5% in Sept.
U.S. Oct. ISM manufacturing index below 41.5% consensus
U.S. Oct. ISM factory index lowest since Sept. 1982
From MarketWatch:
Fitch: US credit card losses may hit historic levels in 2009
Break out the tie-dye and start singing:
“This is the dawning of the age of O-bam-a-ist.”
I wonder if we can redistribute housing stock from those who do not keep up with their payments to those who do? Now THAT is change I can believe in.
I love Bi. But I love his black box more!
(Please don’t misconstrue any of this)
Cindy:
“IndyMac gets creative to tackle home foreclosures”
Think they’ll be as creative as they were with their liar loans?
Grim,
So,arnings stayed flat and people resorted to pulling $ out of their homes to make up for the gap between income and spending — and Greenspan said not to worry. Now, the home piggy bank is shattered and people, instead of cutting spending, have just shifted to credit cards? How long before the card issuers cut credit limits to $1,000?
Stu,
I used a similar line on a date once.
90 clot: “Hope that “other currency” isn’t the forint. You may have a teensy problem if it’s Euros, too:”
Nobody knows what will be the currency valuation in 5 or 10 years. I don’t pretend to know, and given the high probability that I’m spending a lot of time outside of US, it makes sense to be diversified. Basically, I don’t care too much what will happen. No need for risk here either.
“ISM manufacturing index 38.9% vs 43.5% in Sept.”
Wow. And this is right at the beginning of people realizing that there is a REAL problem. It will be interesting to see the numbers for January.
Grim, do you have any numbers for how low it dropped in the 81/82 recession?
How long before the card issuers cut credit limits to $1,000?
My mother mentioned that she had a card account closed due to inactivity this past week. I suppose you could look at that as an extreme case of cutting credit limits.
grim (93)-
You need to get your hands on some Ameros. :)
From the AP:
Construction spending falls less than expected
Construction spending fell by a smaller-than-expected amount in September as a rebound in nonresidential activity helped offset further weakness in home building.
The Commerce Department says construction spending dropped by 0.3 percent in September, less than the 0.8 percent decline many economists had been expecting. Spending had been up by 0.3 percent in August after a huge 2.4 percent plunge in July.
The weakness in September was led by a 1.3 percent drop in housing construction, which has fallen every month but two over the past 30 months. Spending on government projects fell by 1.3 percent, the biggest setback since January.
Indeed it is. I just wonder about those limits. For most day to day purchases, a limit of 1-2k is more than sufficient — if one pays off one’s bills at the end of the month. If one acumulates debt, the low limit is not good, but likely protects the CC companies. They get to collect their merchant fees and end up with little exposure to defaults.
Looks like 30 Shore Guy,
“Grim, do you have any numbers for how low it dropped in the 81/82 recession?”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/NAPM_Max_630_378.png
stu (102)-
Can you say, “liar workouts”?
Clot:
Expect to see the 50-year fixed workout mortgage.
30. And we are darned close right at the beginning of this party. Yeesh.
I know that we have tended to bounch out of recessions inthe past but, it is hard to avoid feeling uneasy about the great differences between current and past levels of household debt. One suspects this will weigh like an anchor on expansion later on.
grim (109)-
That “rebound” is the commercial RE developers, grinding up the last of the non-recourse money.
They will finish off these projects, then walk away. Where are the tenants? Where are the revenues?
here is my prediction for tomorrow night. the game will be over if M loses one of these states: VA, PA and OH. you can just shut off your TV if you are a fan of M camp. the only benefit by O win is that the casualty will be much less.
“Expect to see the 50-year fixed workout mortgage.”
This sure beats the option of writing off debt and rewarding those who acted imprudently.
Stu (113)-
That would make ReTard happy.
Can you say, “liar workouts”?
When you lied to secure the original loan, how willing will you be to tell the truth to secure a workout?
Akin to admitting fraud, no?
Shore (117)-
You could term this crap out to 75 years, and I’d still bet the vast majority of borrowers who partake will still default within the first 36 months of the modification.
Would think that without an amnesty clause as part of these agreements, a large number of “liars” are going to be unwilling to come forward.
Those who never intended to keep the property, and looked at real estate as a get rich quick scheme, are probably unwilling to take any workout. They never intended to own the property long-term, thus any payment is too high.
grim (119)-
As I’ve mentioned here before, virtually every short sale package I put together closes the evidence loop on what could surely be slam-dunk mortgage fraud cases.
Re: 50 year loan
At that point you might as well rewrite these loans as long-term IOs.
grim (121)-
“Would think that without an amnesty clause as part of these agreements, a large number of “liars” are going to be unwilling to come forward.”
Borrowers should just look at a photo of Chris Cox when they sign their modification agreements.
There’s all the “amnesty” you need.
These guys can’t catch a cold.
grim (123)-
Ha. Recasting them as 50-yr IOs with a balloon at the end would probably project about a 30% default rate.
Funny thing about the 50-year loan is that someone stupid enough to take out an adjustable loan on a house they couldn’t afford in the first place will most likely be stupid enough to give $715,000 to the bank on a 300,000 loan over 50 years. Why teach a man to fish when you can open a fish market?
Stu (126)-
Why help a guy default spectacularly, when he can default the ordinary way?
In the event that any loan gets revised to a lower principal level, the home should be recorded as a new sale at the new principal level. Otherwise the old sale price still appears to be the home price.
Of course, if the gubmint does several million recasts with 50-year terms, it will become harder to move in America than it is in China.
Stu,
It may just be renting, but, the people who stocked-up shouldn’t get any encouragement or help to clusterstock the rest of us.
Shore (128)-
But isn’t the real purpose of any workout really to create the illusion of housing prices having been “stabilized” at an inflated level?
#73 John: No day trading here, just discipline, and a healthy dose of common sense and of course being contrary (its in the blood).
As far as NY/NJ not being over built, does not make that much of a difference, in my opinion. It was over bought,and now it will be over sold.
The fundamentals did not and do not support the prices. Chase and all the rest can try and prop up all they want, it is not going to work.
In the event that any loan gets revised to a lower principal level, the home should be recorded as a new sale at the new principal level. Otherwise the old sale price still appears to be the home price.
How are we supposed to keep home prices artificially inflated if this happens?
Isn’t that the whole point of these exercises?
I’m actually more surprised that we’re not hearing more calls to remove home sale data from public records.
Much easier to keep prices inflated if nobody knows the real price of anything, after all.
From MarketWatch:
Fitch: Credit-card losses may hit historic levels in 2009
Fitch Ratings said Monday that U.S. credit-card portfolio losses will increase in the year ahead, with measures of credit continuing to deteriorate into 2009 and with some issuers surpassing historical loss peaks before 2009 is over. “A turn in the cycle will be heavily dependent upon the duration of an economic downturn and the severity of the increase in the unemployment rate,” the ratings agency said. It cited rising job losses, volatile energy prices and the absence of refinancing options such as low-rate balance transfers and home-equity loans.
#128 shore: Exactly. And you know how the M word really upsets me, and I am not talking M as in the one running for President.
Any opinion or impact analysis on what will DTCC report tomorrow?
Depository Trust to Release Credit-Default Swaps Data
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/01/masked-avengers-prank-cal_n_140023.html
Blast from the past:
# stuw6 Says:
November 14th, 2007 at 4:38 pm
Yeah,
Those banks and financial firms are done with their write downs.
Most arms have not yet reset and the recession has not yet hit the wires. It will, and some people are going to lose their jobs and they’re gonna default on their old credit card and on their home payments and then the banks are gonna have more write downs and then bi is gonna call a bottom for the 27th time and my SRS will be at 150 and reinvestor is still gonna be blaming me.
#131 clot: But isn’t the real purpose of any workout really to create the illusion of housing prices having been “stabilized” at an inflated level?
Yes. But than why would any one want to be out looking to purchase a house right now, unlesss money is of no consequence.
How can anyone bid with any degree of confidence?
I will try and answer my own question. The people out buying right now do not have a clue that any of this is going on,and the realtors if they do are not saying anything?
CNNMoney.com:
The Economy: Why It Feels So Bad
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/106066/The-Economy-Why-It-Feels-So-Bad;_ylt=AuHww.V5qzyjhnjdt1_.lUm7YWsA
“But, while GDP may be a good measure of the whole economy (and it may not be, but that’s another story), we wanted to take the temperature of the things that matter to you, and how you feel. How you feel affects how you spend, and that’s what really matters in this economy.”
[59] stu (and Jamil)
FWIW, I don’t know which way to jump, re: O and his econ. agenda. I have to believe (and other tax types agree) that 0’s complete agenda would, if enacted, result in a return to the early 70’s with rampant inflation caused by protectionist policies. Protectionism would be necessary in order to prop up domestic industries that may be saddled with new costs, and therefore unable to compete internationally and at home without protection from foreign competition.
For that reason, and just as Bill had done, I believe that the most left wing of the party, the so-called progressives, will be, once again, tossed under the bus. O has already signaled as much. Thus, corporate america should fare better than expected, especially if corporate tax cuts are used to offset added wage and benefits costs.
That said, unless the economy happens on the next big thing, like the tech boom in the 90’s, we still do not avoid a stagnant economy without some form of economic stimulus, and O will have to open the vault doors here and balloon the deficit. In the 80’s, it was defense spending, but this time, it will most likely occur in infrastructure spending. This is one potential play. The other is related: government contractors. The changes that will be made by O to impose new requirements on government contractors will reduce the ranks of those able to compete for contracts, and this will give the remaining players improved pricing power.
This plays into employment as well—you are better off employed at a company that has a government contracting arm as the increased costs are more easily passed on.
[107] grim,
FWIW, I expect that the next big thing in credit cards will be pre-mortem planning. I expect that, as you get older, credit lines will be reduced or, in some cases, cut off. This is to prevent folks with no estates from running up the cards and leaving the banks hanging after the debtor kicks.
Some flags might be an increase in card use at hospitals or pharmacies, or certain expenditures that look like they are off the bucket list. Then the bank can ratchet down the line so that the debtor cannot hurt the bank as much in death.
Refinements in the programming can take into account available assets, such as a primary residence—the folks in good towns that own outright will get to keep their lines as there will be an estate to pay.
I have no insight here, but that is what I expect, esp. with the boomers starting to retire.
FWIW, I expect that the next big thing in credit cards will be pre-mortem planning. I expect that, as you get older, credit lines will be reduced or, in some cases, cut off. This is to prevent folks with no estates from running up the cards and leaving the banks hanging after the debtor kicks.
Overt age discrimination?
Interesting article…terrible source, but not as terrible as Newsmax:
Leonard The Monkey
The Stock Picking Monkey:
Interesting Weekend Read – Credit Card Use Up Big At MCD
http://leonardthemonkey.com/index.php
“If you thought the recovery under Bush was the “jobless recovery,” wait until you see the next version without the benefit of profligate consumer borrowing and spending.”
Hey, Grim. You are tapped into all the trends. First people financed their lives with equity, now with credit cards. What is next? Selloing blood? Gold fillings? Pole dancing?
3b (140)-
The easiest answer to this question is to keep in mind that not everyone is you. You- and the mindset represented by you- are a microscopically-fractional minority of the potential buyers circulating out there.
Even high-income buyers do not think much past their upcoming pay cycle when making large financial decisions.
From Bloomberg:
One Brooklyn Bridge Condo Demand `Killed’ as NYC Market Slides
Nowhere is the high-water mark of New York real estate more visible than the former Jehovah’s Witnesses distribution facility at One Brooklyn Bridge Park.
The 14-story condominium complex shattered the borough’s price ceiling when real estate entrepreneur Elizabeth Stribling agreed in March to pay $6.05 million to live there. Now, two- thirds of the 449 units in the 1.2-million-square-foot building remain unsold, testament to the financial excesses brewed up across the East River in the Wall Street canyons framed by One Brooklyn’s floor-to-ceiling windows.
“We were killed,” said Robert Levine, chief executive officer of RAL Companies & Affiliates LLC, who masterminded the $550 million waterfront project with views of the Brooklyn Bridge and the Statue of Liberty, along with amenities such as virtual golf, a movie theater and a planned 85-acre park. “We have negotiated and done some contracts, but people are clearly much more aware of the current economy.”
…
Just when sales at One Brooklyn should have taken off after New York real estate’s annual June-August lull, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. went bankrupt, Merrill Lynch & Co. was forced to sell itself and Congress authorized a $700 billion bailout of the nation’s financial system. About 160,000 New Yorkers may lose their jobs, including 45,000 in finance and related businesses, according to an estimate by Governor David Paterson.
The result: Stribling Marketing Associates, exclusive broker for the property, has sold just 18 units since March, compared with an average of 14 a month in each of the prior 10 months. Levine, 56, is seeking about $1,684 a square foot for the most expensive unit, triple the average price in Brooklyn and higher than the $1,240 average for Manhattan’s Upper East Side.
[144]
May be happening already. I found this recent complaint on a board in response to a google search:
“I think HSBC may be targeting senior citizens and are concerned about not getting paid because they died. He is why, my mother who is 82 has a HSBC credit card and she has never been late with a payment and has always paid more then the payment due amount, her record with them is perfect with the exception of having a high balance. I would think they love high balances because they collect a lot of interest money. Anyway she receives a computer generated notice that they periodically check her credit report (she did not authorize running a credit report) and they have decided that effective September 9, 2008 her card will be closed to any new transactions and the balance either has to be paid in full or in monthly payment. In looking at her credit report I see her history is perfect, NO late or missing payments so why would HSBC decide on this action. What possible reason could they have to close the card, perfect record, getting paid high interest, the only reason would be they are worried about getting paid. Why? The only reason remaining is they are concerned she may die and they get stuck for the bill? In my book that would be age discrimantion and I would like to find out how many seniors got this same notice.”
One blog suggests ECOA covers this. I don’t recall that but will check.
plume (143)-
Talk about leaving the world the same way you entered it…
Shore (146)-
My vote goes to kidneys. You only need one.
grim (148)-
There will be strip malls in Florida that fill up faster than that building.
“If you remotely believe in a free market — even one where players are regulated to prevent their own worst instincts from getting the best of the them — the last thing one should be doing is targeting asset prices. That is what Greenspan did throughout the 1990s and in the early 2000s, and it one of the primary causes of our present woes.”
“For a classic example of this, have a look at California home sales last month (see chart, top right). Home sales shot up a huge 96.7%. Why? Because home prices fell 40.9% in September alone. Foreclosures and forced sales are driving prices back to levels that are attracting buyers, and are affordable to potential buyers.”
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/
“One Brooklyn Bridge Park”
Perhaps they can convert it into SRO housing so as to keep folks off the street and out of shelters.
May be happening already.
Like I said above, my mother mentioned she had an account closed due to inactivity. Now you’ve got me wondering whether or not it was inactivity alone, or inactivity along with another factor … age.
I don’t know why you guys are concerned about age discrimination on credit cards.
They do it with drivers licenses.
[144] grim,
From the Fed:
“3. Consideration of age in a judgmental system. In a judgmental system, defined in Sec. 202.2(t), a creditor may not take age directly into account in any aspect of the credit transaction. For example, the creditor may not reject an application or terminate an account because the applicant is 60 years old. But a creditor that uses a judgmental system may relate the applicant’s age to other information about the applicant that the creditor considers in evaluating creditworthiness. For example:
A creditor may consider the applicant’s occupation and length of time to retirement to ascertain whether the applicant’s income (including retirement income) will support the extension of credit to its maturity.
A creditor may consider the adequacy of any security offered when the term of the credit extension exceeds the life expectancy of the applicant and the cost of realizing on the collateral could exceed the applicant’s equity. (An elderly applicant might not qualify for a 5 percent down, 30-year mortgage loan but might qualify with a larger downpayment or a shorter loan maturity.)
A creditor may consider the applicant’s age to assess the significance of the length of the applicant’s employment (a young applicant may have just entered the job market) or length of time at an address (an elderly applicant may recently have retired and moved from a long-term residence).
As the examples above illustrate, the evaluation must be made in an individualized, case-by-case manner; and it is impermissible for a creditor, in deciding whether to extend credit or in setting the terms and conditions, to base its decision on age or information related exclusively to age. Age or age-related information may be considered only in evaluating other “pertinent elements of creditworthiness” that are drawn from the particular facts and circumstances concerning the applicant.”
This is how they get around it. They can use accepted criteria to reevaluate risk and ratchet back credit, or refuse to extend it.
What I think will happen is that these indicia will be paired with other indicia to re-evaluate creditworthiness. In essence, while I do not expect wholesale terminations of credit lines, I expect that the banks will be considerably more aggressive in their use of available criteria to cut back on credit availability to seniors.
Funny you should mention age discrimination. American Home Mortgage was accused of targeting the elderly with 30 year mortgages as how could they every pay it back. What is wrong with limiting credit to people over 75 who have a high likelyhood of default?
[155] grim,
Probably both. Naturally, the bank will go with inactivity. Nice and neutral, and doesn’t invite a lawsuit (since discovery would be brutal and costly, the bank can offer to open its records to the plaintiff attorney under a court order, effectively passing the cost of discovery to the plaintiff. That ends the suit right quick unless the plaintiff gets an order forcing bank to provide abstracts of data that would show trends—this the bank would fight tooth and nail).
That said, should mom reapply, the bank should re-open the account, but the credit line will be lower.
BC (153)-
Duh. And everyday, people ask me what can be done to get sales going again.
Imagine. Houses on the market, at prices that people can afford. What a concept!
Who was talking about Argentina recently?
Argentina Legalizes Plunder 11/3/2008Buenos Aires as an example of “sharing the wealth.” (Nov. 3
http://online.wsj.com/video/argentina-legalizes-plunder/8A9D5102-B5CB-485C-8059-57797FB096DB.html
Nicholas (156)-
Last time I checked, a senile old coot can’t kill somebody else with a credit card.
I could see where age discrimination would be illegal in employment, but a creditor limiting future credit due to the inevitable death of their client and consequential financial loss seems justified as long as it is based on real life expectations. For example, would it be age discrimination if a funeral parlor marketed funerals to those over 70?
I know there are a lot of things that we find unsavory about credit card companies, but they should have the right to not get screwed by someone who is scientifically expected to die before the balance is paid off.
Grim or anyone else with GSMLS access – is 2521601 in SO a short sale too?
Gator (164)-
No reference to a short sale in the listing. However, the seller is Cartus Corp, the relo arm of Realogy.
I think this is a straight relo listing.
according to bliden theory, paying tax is your patriotic duty. it means that 40% of population except those who are serving the country directly such as serving in military are not patriotic. i think this is the biggest problem we are facing. the first priority of the next administration should force everybody patriotic by having everyone pay tax.
Grim or anyone else with GSMLS access – is 2521601 in SO a short sale too?
There is a prior sale in 2006 at $785k, but the current listing doesn’t state short sale. Ah, I found it, it is a relo. Looks like the relo company is taking the hit perhaps?
Gator (165)-
Interesting…that property was just tax-appealed down to 17.7K from over 21K.
Let’s see how long that lasts.
bi,
I think what he said was that “for the rich” it is their patriotic duty to pay higher taxes. For those who are not “rich,” it may be that their patriotic duty is to tax those who are.
168 Clot – Not a tax appeal. SO did a revaluation last year. Plenty of homes up on the hill went from taxes in the low/mid 20’s to high teens.
bi must be one of Fortress’ quants. They thought the writedowns were over, too.
By Roddy Boyd, writer
Last Updated: October 31, 2008: 2:29 PM ET
NEW YORK (Fortune) — Private-equity and hedge-fund manager Fortress Investment Group made a highly-publicized bet several months ago that it could call the bottom on the battered mortgage-backed securities market.
What the firm’s managers and investors have since “won” is an object lesson on the value of staying on the sidelines during a market rout.
Fortress CEO Wes Edens and co-president Michael Novogratz began discussing in spring 2008 a way to profit from what were then historic price collapses in the mortgage and corporate bond markets. (An earlier version incorrectly said those conversations were between Edens and co-president Peter Briger.)
Their plan was simple: Raise capital from investors and deploy it in stages to profit from the pain and panic caused by the collapse of numerous hedge funds and investment bank Bear Stearns.
With an appreciation – to paraphrase Warren Buffett – for being greedy when others are afraid (Edens and Novogratz had made millions at Black Rock and at Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) being contrarians during market collapses), Fortress (FIG) raised at least $2 billion to put to work over time. All told, Fortress manages about $35 billion in assets, $18 billion of which is in its hedge fund unit.
But in a market without precedent, Edens and Novogratz can be forgiven if they feel like they’ve jumped into a pool that has no bottom.
The Fortress Mortgage Opportunities fund has been walloped as the asset- and mortgage-backed securities markets continue their epoch slides. The fund, with assets of $940 million, is down 47% in one portfolio, 42% in another and 5% in a third, recently launched portfolio, as of the end of September.
In addition to betting on a variety of mortgage bonds, Fortress has also made private-equity type investments directly in companies and investment managers that have mortgage exposure.
A spokeswoman for the fund declined comment. This account is based on discussions with a fund investor and people familiar with Fortress who declined to be identified.
Fortress appears to be sticking to its guns. In June, when the Wall Street Journal reported the Opportunities fund was down 30%, it had just $560 million in assets, meaning Fortress has been committing more money to the fund even as markets continue to sour.
According to people familiar with Fortress, its managers are convinced that these markets will eventually rally. And because Fortress requires investors to commit to three-year lockups, unlike many competitors Fortress won’t need to rapidly sell assets to meet redemption requests.
Tough times all over
The Mortgage Opportunities fund’s blues track the problems that Fortress Investments has had since its much ballyhooed February 2007 initial public offering, the first for a U.S.-based hedge- and private-equity fund manager.
Priced at $18.50, shares closed at $31 on the first day of trading. That put Edens’ stake at $2.3 billion. His co-founders Novogratz and co-president Peter Briger had stock valued at $2.1 billion. All told, five partners at Fortress managed to make an appearance on the Forbes list of American billionaires last year.
Life has changed remarkably for them and their company since then.
As the economy has gone south, and the credit crunch has hurt its performance and its ability to do new deals, Fortress has scrapped its dividend to conserve cash. The company booked a $55 million loss in the second quarter.
A chart of Fortress’ stock price is an alarming thing to behold. Shares closed at a low of $2.78 earlier this week and sat near $3.50 in early Friday trading.
Two days ago, in a speech to his shareholders at a New York hotel, Edens joked that if the stock price hit $1, he would launch a hostile takeover of his own company. On a more somber note, according to the Journal, he said he would “make a different decision about going public” given the volatility of today’s markets.
Japan’s Nomura Securities is less public about expressing regrets over Fortress’ decision to go public, despite having purchased 15% of Fortress in the weeks prior to the IPO for $888 million. The broker notified its shareholders two days ago that it will further write down the value of its investment when it next reports results.
#147 clot:You- and the mindset represented by you- are a microscopically-fractional minority of the potential buyers circulating out there.
So I am tormented, by thinking too much.
Gator (170)-
Such a deal (throwing up a little in my mouth…).
Thanks.
Yes, Clot (173). I get that same gag reflex engaging whenever a listing proudly boasts taxes of 17k.
#170 NJ GAtor: At some point, SO will simply raise the tax rate,as they will need to continue to collect the same amount of revenue
3b (172)-
Isn’t torment always the end product of thinking too much?
Dollar IS going up. Not by any strength in the US. Just dollar denominated debt being paid down. US government actions re this crisis have all been inflationary. End result is inevitably they’ll have to monetize the added debt and the result will be a dramatic uptick in oil, gld etc. The time frame that plays out in is the only thing that one can dispute.
Oct. Warn Notices
http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lwdhome/warn/2008/1008warn.html
3b – Am not seriously considering this house. And yes, you are right, the towns will increase the tax rates, but not everyone appeals. The towns will increase their spending as usual. They will have an lower overall valuation because of successful appeals and the tax rate will go up accordingly. If you suucessfully appeal your assessment down, you will minimize your increase or even have a fighting chance for a reduction or staying stable. If you don’t have an appealable assessment in these Essex County towns that were recently revalued over the next few years, you will be royally f*ed by your increase.
And you would be surprised at how many people that should appeal don’t. I know first hand, because I have been studying my town’s assessments and sales in preparation for my own 2009 appeal.
” the towns will increase the tax rates”
” the towns will increase the tax rates”
” the towns will increase the tax rates”
#176 clot:Isn’t torment always the end product of thinking too much?
Perhaps I should stop it,and live in La La land.
” the towns will increase the tax rates”
No. NO. NO! Being run by smart folks who have the best interests of their taxpayers at the top of their minds, the leasers will cut spending to come into line with revenue.
Oh, wait, this is NJ. Silly me.
#179 NJ Gator: If you suucessfully appeal your assessment down, you will minimize your increase or even have a fighting chance for a reduction or staying stable.
How??
Grim,
Please kill the leftover Halloween zombies above and this message too.
I know first hand, because I have been studying my town’s assessments and sales in preparation for my own 2009 appeal.
Anyone planning to appeal in the next year better be ready for a drawn out battle. No way municipalities are going to allow tax dollars to leave easily.
ss (178)-
But I thought Barclays was gonna be okay now…
185 3b – I have done it already. Appealed my assessment down by 10%. Neighbors all around me are similarly overassessed, and none of them filed appeals. Our annual taxes went down by several hundred dollars the following year even though the tax rate went up.
I take a look at my town’s current listings and a good number of them are listed below their current assessment. Those owners should file an appeal if they are assessed over market. The town’s not going to correct the assessment for them.
Even though we got an assessment reduction, our property’s value continues to drop. My current assessment was correct as of 10/06, but is too high for 10/08. We will probably win a reduction of another 10% when we go before the county tax board next spring. We actually probably won’t even get to the tax board. The town will likely settle with us before the hearing, as they know they will lose.
grim (187)-
Agreed. Tax appealing now is an utter waste of time.
Grab your ankles, and brace yourselves.
Gator (189)-
In the next year or two, they’re gonna come back at you and get back all you’ve saved, and then some.
he [177],
Yep.
Frightened capital moves to where it can be accomodated, not where it wishes to be ultimately deployed. Positive? In the meantime the fed’s balance sheet has doubled and treasury supply is cranking upward. Positive? One other item, cds are settled in dollars. That’s short term positive.
If we enter a deep recession/mini depression, all can cheer that the dollar is steady/up. Unemployed, but the dollar is up.
187 Grim – I’d agree with you except for the towns that revalued 2006 and later. They are screwed. Almost anyone willing to do the legwork on the research will easily be able to show with a few MLS listings and a trip to the county clerk’s that the year’s sales comps show their assessment to be overvalued.
They will continue to spend. They’ll just jack up the tax rate to reflect the lower valuation. I believe the spending increase caps imposed by the state are based on actual budget numbers and not on increases to the tax rate.
Further to my recent decision to not host a GTG:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/11/03/angry.internet/index.html
Enough folks on this board have spouted invective at one another as of late and the last thing I need or want is a brawl at my house. This in addition to the fact that my politics are out of favor and I need to keep them under wraps in the New Order. Hence I am going to be a bit more aggressive in my anonimity.
That said, I still want to “host” a Brigadoon GTG, and I propose the evening of November 7th at the Jolly Trolley in Brigadoon, which appears to be just about the only bar in town. Open to other suggestions though.
191 Clot – They have nothing to come back at us with. We have not improved the property beyone what is already reflected in our property record card. And we can show a whole slew of multis within blocks of us that have sold or listed well beyond our current assessment.
Montclair went through this during their previous revaluation in the last 80’s. Half the town appealed, and the half that didn’t payed higher taxes for the next 15+ years. On our block alone, there were more than half the houses paid lower taxes than me and Stu prior to the reval. After the reval, they were assessed up to 100k higher than we were. Our town government is inherently lazy.
195 – oops “beyond” s/b “below”.
Boomers. The Shallowest Generation.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/103202-the-shallowest-generation?source=front_page_editors_picks
First RE prices start dropping, now this:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/11/03/twinkies.100calories.ap/index.html?iref=mpstoryview
#193 NJ Gator:that revalued 2006 and later. They are screwed.
I would think 2005 as well.
#198 – Stealth inflation under the guise of health concerns.
yepper, just like pounds of coffee that weigh 13 oz.
Grim, Shore…it’s not about letting tax dollars leave easily.
I’ll use our house as an example (some numbers are guesses, but the meaning is the same).
We fought our assessment down from 640 last year to 580.
The person who lives to the right of us (also comparable to ours) was also assessed at 640 last year. They didn’t challenge it so they will pay 10% higher taxes than us (580/640).
Tax rates in Montclair was 2.17. So they collected $26,474 from the two of us combined. We paid $12586 and they paid $13888.
The house across the street from us (comparable to ours) is for sale for 490 and is not selling. This means that our house is now worth 490 at best. If we win our appeal this year, and the tax rate goes up by 7%, then the we would owe 2.32 * 490 = $11,368. The neighbor on our right doesn’t appeal again and he now owes $14,848 (2.32 * 640). The town now collects $26216 from the two of us but needs $28,327 to cover the 7% tax increase. Well we will both make up the difference, but the neighbor will once again pay a larger share than we will. We will pay $844.40 more than $11,368 which equals a total tax bill of $12,212.40. The neighbor on our right will now pay $16,114.60.
So in two years worth of appeals, our tax bill has dropped $373.60! Our neighbor who chooses not to appeal, now pays $2226.60 more. The town gets their 7% increase.
So the moral of the story is, appeal your taxes, but don’t tell your neighbors ’bout it!
Who knew? Sal would be proud.
“A single barge can carry 3,000 tons, enough to replace 100 trucks.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/03/nyregion/03erie.html?em missing link
I personally feel like the towns that revalued and are overwhelmingly overmarket should reassess. They don’t have to do reinspections, as they already have updated property record cards. A reassessment would be cheaper than a revaluation and would be inherently more fair than giving tax breaks just to the folks who show the initiative to appeal.
It might even be cost effective. The town could avoid the legal fees for most of the appeals, and not have to eat the county and school tax overpayments for successful appellants.
http://www.imnotobsessed.com/2008/11/03/22-year-old-auctions-off-virginity-for-millions
John,
And that differs from hooking, how?
From MarketWatch:
Toyota U.S. October sales fall 23% to 152,101 units
Daimler U.S. October sales fall 24.5% to 17,232 units
Ford U.S. sales fall 30.2% in October
Porsche U.S. October sales fall 50.1%
Toyota U.S. October sales fall 23% to 152,101 units
At least it wasn’t ‘less than zero’ :P
“Ford U.S. sales fall 30.2% in October”
It is hard to cost-cut one’s way out of that loss of income. Being mortgaged to the hilt, but for Chrysler going away, it is hard to see Ford surviving. I suppose Fedco will help.
And that differs from hooking, how?
Nice industry, but those prices won’t persist. Excess profits will be decimated by competition from new entrants.
JB [208],
Only because the pant up demand is spending all their time in malls, according to our mall guru.
How does one calculate cap gains on such a thing?
Or is it a use tax?
Only because the pant up demand is spending all their time in malls, according to our mall guru.
Buying iPhones?
From MW:
Is the iPhone coming under pressure?
Apple Inc. may be drastically scaling back production of its popular iPhone for the crucial fourth-quarter shopping season as the economy slips further into a recession, according to a brokerage report Monday.
Gator (195)-
That’s amazing. Out in my neck of the woods, they screw everybody equally…and aggressively.
“Only because the pant up demand is spending all their time in malls, according to our mall guru.”
How true, with the proceeds from our sea of wealth, people no longer drive to the mall. They now live there permanently. Or perhaps all of those shoppers are just the new homeless people?
Stu,
You laugh. I read somwhere recently that the owner of a struggling mall is looking into converting portions of it into housing units.
How true, with the proceeds from our sea of wealth, people no longer drive to the mall. They now live there permanently.
Isn’t this the core tenet of New Urbanism?
according to this final gallup poll, O leads M by double digits while M is favored by both white male and female voters.
“Looking inside the numbers, Omama leads McCan among African Americans (90 percent to 3 percent), Latinos (68 to 27), 18- to 34-year-olds (59 to 38), independents (48 to 38), blue-collar voters (51 to 44), suburban voters (49 to 44) and Catholics (49 to 46).
McCan, meanwhile, has the advantage among evangelicals (78 percent to 19 percent), those 65 years old and older (53 to 40), white men (54 to 42) and white women (48 to 47). ”
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27488250/
“and white women (48 to 47).”
Isn’t that typically when the hot flashes occur?
Don’t shoot me!
Clot 216 – We are only in this situation beacuse our town assessed us too aggressively at peak. It’s much easier to appeal an assessment down when you are below market than when the town’s average assessment is at 50% and they get 15% leeway above that.
Now Glen Ridge OTOH is much more mercenary when it comes to their appellants. They lost 30 appeals at the County Tax Board this year, and the town is appealling 11 of those cases to the State Tax Court.
http://www.localsource.com/articles/2008/10/29/glen_ridge/news/local_news/doc48ffaaee9cec7461616738.txt
No more presidential chit-chat today, save it for tomorrow!
If you end up in a hospital E.D., just hope you don’t get a burnt out intern or resident who lacks empathy.
BC (212)-
Wasn’t pret our mall guru?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/health/chen10-30.html?em
The missing link.
Gator,
Thank for the link, I was looking for that piece earlier.
Caveat Emptor! When you purchase a home with an appealed property tax, you might not get to keep it!
BC (212)-
I am not ready to turn the title of “guru” of anything over to Frank yet.
Except maybe guru of dolt.
Shore (213)-
Basis = 0.
Nothing like suing one-s constituants.
can anyone imagine the day when you’re going to the grocery store and paying for your food in gold coins? who really thinks this could happen?
that’s the kind of sh*t i fear. I am actually eager to buy a new house and get the garden up and running.
just got the new safe today … the hope is to keep 5k at home, two weapons, and plenty of gold.
227 Grim – When you appeal successfully, you can invoke the Freeze Act in your judgement. The Freeze Act prevents the municipality from increasing your assessment (except for permits or a townwide revaluation or reassessment) for 3 years.
Stu and I did not invoke the Freeze Act because we felt our value would only go down, and got conflicting legal advice as to whether or not it would impact our ability to file another appeal within the next 3 years.
We felt pretty strongly that our home’s value would not be increasing anytime soon.
“Wasn’t pret our mall guru?”
Clot,
The baton has been passed to Frank. He’s running the last leg of the relay.
yikes (231)-
You’re making quite a leap to assume that grocery stores will still be standing:
“can anyone imagine the day when you’re going to the grocery store and paying for your food in gold coins? who really thinks this could happen?”
Good thing Gator. Otherwise the Town might have come back with the AntiFreeze Act, and then you would have been in a freeze thaw cycle.
BC (233)-
Good metaphor. Too bad it’s a three-legged race…with Frank strapped to a 300-lb cadaver in rigor mortis.
The best part of winning a tax appeal has to be the feeling that you’re sticking it to The Man.
Clot, the best part of not paying your taxes is knowing you are sticking it to the man.
yikes,
why do you fear that? That’s the most honest monetary system we could possibly have.
# 237 –
‘cept the man can stick it back, re # 222.
And stick back with an electrified poker.
Personal business report.
Our family business, which deals with lots of Europeans, is experiencing a 45% sales drop YOY. The “R” has hit home.
Stu’s personal business report:
It’s none of your business!
Stu Says:
November 3rd, 2008 at 10:07 am
I love Bi. But I love his black box more!
(Please don’t misconstrue any of this)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYNNH8WX9Eo
“It’s none of your business!”
Isn’t that what Paulson, Big Ben, and the others at FedCo say when they come take over a company?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnUEcG4iH34&NR=1
Our family business, which deals with lots of Europeans, is experiencing a 45% sales drop YOY. The “R” has hit home.
Friend of mine laid off all his PT workers last week (half a dozen). Cut all OT as well.
I may have to lay off my wife.
Sean (248)-
Do the smart thing.
Pimp her out.
hat tip to Mr. Mortgage
A good friend who specializes in distressed real estate assets such as notes and REO just bought 27 second mortgages with a face value of $2,153,400 for $2400 – that’s TWO THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED DOLLARS.
He does a lot of business with the bank seller and this package was in additional to a 12 unit REO package he bought for 36 cents on the new appraised value. Even though this is an exceptional deal, it is not too far off of the 5 cents on the dollar that Bernanke testified about when selling TARP to the House.
None of the first mortgages ahead of these seconds have a Notice-of-Default against them. Two of the seconds totaling $54,275 are current, paying on time.
The most interesting is a $540k second in Jersey Shore. The home was purchased for $1.8 million with the first mortgage being $800k. The current appraised value is $1.2 million. My friend can actually foreclose on the property and make a killing or just offer the owner a buy out of $50k on the $540k second, make a 2000% return and get the other 26 notes for free.
I wonder at what level the banks holding hundreds of billions of these have delinquent home equity loans valued?
-Best Mr Mortgage
Is that any way to talk about the future first lady?
chicagofinance Says:
November 3rd, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Stu Says:
November 3rd, 2008 at 10:07 am
I love Bi. But I love his black box more!
Too good not to pass on:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUtwNtE1NBA&feature=related
From MarketWatch:
Banks cite poor economy, not frozen markets
Fed survey shows massive credit tightening continues
Record 85% of banks tighten lending for commercial loans
From MarketWatch:
Fed survey shows massive credit tightening continues
Banks doing business in the United States have made it much tougher over the past three months for their customers to borrow money, the Federal Reserve reported Monday, strong evidence that the credit freeze is hitting Main Street hard. Most banks were clamping down on credit due to fears about a weaker economy, not because of frozen credit markets. A record 85% of banks said they had tightened standards for commercial and industrial loans to large or medium-sized companies, up from 60% in the previous survey.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Monthly Bankruptcies Top 100,000 for First Time Since 2005
More Americans threw in the towel in October as monthly bankruptcy filings topped 100,000 for the first time since bankruptcy laws were tightened three years ago.
Businesses and individuals filed 108,595 bankruptcy petitions of all types, up 13 percent from the prior month, according to data provided by Automated Access to Court Electronic Records, a service of Jupiter eSources LLC in Oklahoma City.
A three-year housing recession has prompted record home foreclosures, rising unemployment and a drop in consumer spending. The biggest credit crisis in seven decades is putting additional stress on Americans, propelling more bankruptcies.
“As the credit crunch intensifies, bankruptcies are racing to new highs,” said John Herrmann, president of Herrmann Forecasting LLC in Summit, New Jersey. “Bankruptcy filings are another symptom of the malaise affecting households and their ability and willingness to spend.”
Filings by consumers soared just before revisions to bankruptcy law took effect in October 2005 and made it more difficult for individuals to erase their debts.
If credit gets any tighter the ISM manufacturing index will be below 30 in no time.
For anyone who is interested, attached is a link to the 2008 Docketed Cases with the State Tax Court.
http://www.judiciary.state.nj.us/taxcourt/njtaxlplist08.pdf
I count 281 filed cases against my town….including 2 neighbors on my street.
4 minutes ago
Homeowners “Lying” Their Way To A Better Mortgage?
Posted By:Diana Olick
Topics:Interest Rates | Housing | Real Estate
Sectors:Financial Services | Construction and Materials
Companies:Bank of America Corp | JPMorgan Chase and Co
CNBC.com
——————————————————————————–
In reading around the real estate blogs, I’m finding a troubling trend. A lot of American homeowners are liars. Yep, not surprising—especially given all the folks who lied about their ability to pay loans—by taking advantage of Alt-A mortgage products (those are the ones that require no proof of income or ability to pay).
Anyway, it’s all going hand in hand with the increased number of mortgage rescue plans, be it the Bank of America[BAC 23.42 -0.75 (-3.1%) ]/Countrywide settlement or JP Morgan’s [JPM 40.36 -0.89 (-2.16%) ]announcement last week that it would rework about a hundred billion dollars worth of loans or even government modifications through the FHA.
The rumblings in the blogosphere have gone from anger at the borrowers who are getting bailed out without any punishment to a “if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em!” mentality. More and more people are suggesting that even if you can afford your loan, you should just stop paying on it, so as to take advantage of a better interest rate that might be offered through a bailout.
Now you’d think that the bailout plans would have safety catches for this sort of thing, like the banks would look at your income and expenses and figure out that you are actually capable of living up to your responsibilities. But as the volume of troubled loans grows, the bailout plans are getting “streamlined.” That’s the word I keep hearing and reading. Industry and government officials are trying to “streamline” the process because they simply don’t have the manpower to go loan by loan. So if you fit a certain formula of negative equity on your home and a variable loan product, you can probably streamline your way into a better deal, even if you don’t really need one.
U.S. Rescue Attracts 1,800 Institutions: Report
I’m not calling all American borrowers a bunch of liars, but most folks are always looking for the better deal. And remember, an awful lot of Americans took advantage of loans that they knew they couldn’t afford, because it was a good deal at the time. I’m just throwing out a word of caution, for the record.
Many Homeowners Owe More Than House Is Worth
Questions? Comments? RealtyCheck@cnbc.com
Mind you the numbers in 257 above only relate to State Court filings. These are either folks who filed directly with the state (which you can only do if you are assessed at over 750k) or are appealing a county tax board judgement. Total number of appeals filed is in all likelihood higher.
From CNBC:
Banks Tighten Lending on Credit Cards to Mortgages
Banks tightened up further on all sorts of lending from home mortgages to credit cards and business loans as the worst financial crisis in seven decades took a bigger toll on the economy.
The Federal Reserve says its latest quarterly survey of bank lending practices found high numbers of banks reporting tighter credit standards across a broad range of loan products.
The Fed says its survey, released Monday and conducted in the first two weeks of October, found that sizable percentages of banks had “continued to tighten their lending standards and terms on all major loan categories over the previous three months.”
A follow up to the brother that had 4 days of gasoline before he couldn’t make it to work anymore…
He was able to obtain a short term loan from the guy he started working for because he said he “couldn’t make it to work” if he didn’t get some type of mid-month pay.
Lender of last resort is now officially “The Man”.
The new company store.
Interesting article about states whose polls close early and what the various results may portend:
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4A20N420081103
“The Federal Reserve says its latest quarterly survey of bank lending practices found high numbers of banks reporting tighter credit standards across a broad range of loan products.”
No problem, twist arm the banks and force them to now take $50B.
Do you think we might be able to get rid of one or two of these in order to bring down the NJ tax burden?
https://wwwnet1.state.nj.us/GOV/APPT/GOV_APPT_WEB/Default.aspx
I feel like writing my bank and letting them know that I will remove my deposits and close my accounts if they accept money from the bailout.
It has nothing to do with solvency/insolvency it has everything to do with ethics.
“Your Fired”
Aquaculture Advisory Council
Because we care…
“Commission on Bullying in Schools”
I’d be embarrassed to serve on this commission.
Massage, Bodywork and Somatic Therapy Examining Committee
Sign me up!
New Jersey Elderly Person Suicide Prevention Advisory Council
New Jersey Youth Suicide Prevention Advisory Council
These could be combined into one supercouncil thus halfing bueracracy and increasing the amount of dollars directly spent on reducing suicides.
Here’s another beaut!
State Board of Polysomnography
That makes me think, why is there no council on preventing older-then-youth-but-younger-then-elderly-people people.
“Commission on Bullying in Schools”
Perhaps we need a ‘Commission on Tattle Tailing in schools’ as well.
Never knew it was a problem…
New Jersey Horse Racing Injury Compensation Board
Stu (268)-
The NJ Rub and a Tug Commission.
/sarcasm
They should drop several of the poorer performing DOW participants in favor of some higher earners such as SFK.
/sarcasm
Better than a 50% chance the FFR gets whacked to .25% on 12/16?
Race to zero!
Grim, not even an honorable mention for njrereport.com
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/25-most-influential-real-estate-bloggers-2008/
Grim/Clot – Is this another SO Short Sale?
2463221 183 North Woods
LP 700,000
Assessment 744,700
Sold 9/12/06 859,000
#270 – Nicholas These could be combined into one supercouncil thus halfing bueracracy and increasing the amount of dollars directly spent on reducing suicides.
They could just cut both programs and potentially save a bunch from BOE & pension claims as well.
“Better than a 50% chance the FFR gets whacked to .25% on 12/16?”
Mrs Smith, rather Mrs Hernandez/Rodriquez will become day traders, the new carry will be established.
Clot – I thought you said nobody was going to jail for Mortgage Fraud?
http://www.inman.com/news/2008/11/3/agent-loan-officers-indicted-in-fraud-scheme
Here’s another one in SO:
2588809 155 Glenview
LP 632,500
Assessment 895,400 (taxes 21,847)
Sold 5/2/06 850,000
2463221 183 North Woods
LP 700,000
Assessment 744,700
Sold 9/12/06 859,000
I’ve got the prior sale at 589k
It seems a perfectly good thing to teach about this but, a commission? Look at the number of members. And the first thing they cut are park operating hours?
https://wwwnet1.state.nj.us/GOV/APPT/GOV_APPT_WEB/Default.aspx
Amistad Commission Board Name: Amistad Commission
Legal Authority: P.L. 2002, c. 75 of 08/28/02 and amended by P.L. 2004, c. 94 of 07/09/04
Purpose: The Legislature established the Amistad Commission within the Department of State, aimed at incorporating African-American history into the traditional curriculum of New Jersey’s schools. The Amistad Commission was created in honor of the group of enslaved Africans led by Joseph Cinque who, while being transported in 1839 on a vessel named the Amistad, gained their freedom after overthrowing the crew and eventually having their case successfully argued before the United States Supreme Court. The Commission is charged with promoting wider implementation of educational awareness programs regarding the African slave trade, slavery in America and the many contributions African-Americans have made over the course of United States history. The Commission shall prepare reports for the Governor and the Legislature regarding its findings and recommendations on facilitating the inclusion of the African slave trade, American slavery studies, African-American history and special programs in the educational system of the State. The New Jersey Historical Commission shall serve as staff for the Amistad Commission, and may, subject to the availability of appropriations, hire additional staff and consultants to carry out the duties and responsibilities of the Amistad Commission. The Department of Education shall assist the Amistad Commission in marketing and distributing to educators, administrators and school districts in the State educational information and other materials on the African slave trade, slavery in America, the vestiges of Slavery in this country and the contributions of African-American to our society.
Special Requirements: The membership shall include the following ex-officio members or their designees – the Secretary of State; the Commissioner of the Department of Education; and the chair of the executive board to the Presidents’ Council. Additionally, there are 16 public members that shall be appointed as follows: 4 public members appointed by the President of the Senate; 4 public members appointed by the Speaker of the General Assembly; and 8 public members directly appointed by the Governor who shall be residents of this State chosen with due regard to broad geographic representation and ethnic diversity, who have an interest in the history of the African slave trade and slavery in America, and the contributions of African-Americans to our society; 2 members of the Senate appointed by the Senate President who shall be non-voting members; and 2 members of the General Assembly appointed by the Speaker of the General Assembly who shall be non-voting members.
Member Name Seat Name
Stephen Adubato Public Member 1
Ms. Joyce Wilson Harley Esq. Senate President/Public Member 1
Francis Blee Assembly Rep. 1
Sandra Y. Lewis Assembly Speaker/Public Member 3
Mayor Joseph Doria Public Member 2
Lillie Johnson Edwards Public Member 3
Kevin Hagan Public Member 4
James Harris Public Member 5
Robert Harrison Senate President/Public Member 2
Mr. Nathaniel Jones Sr. Public Member 8
Julane W. Miller-Armbrister Ed.D. Senate President/Public Member 3
Rachel Pereira Assembly Speaker/Public Member 4
Ms. Miriam E. Martin Public Member 7
Julia A. Miller Senate President/Public Member 4
Gabriella Morris Assembly Speaker/Public Member 2
Dr. Colin A. Palmer Ph.D. Public Member 6
Assemblywoman Cleopatra G. Tucker Assembly Rep. 2
Herbert Tate Assembly Speaker/Public Member 1
State Senator Leonard Lance Senate Rep. 1
Senator Sandra Cunningham Senate Rep. 2
the Commissioner of the Department of Education or a desig Commissioner of Education, or a designee
the Secretary of Department of State or a designee Secretary of State, or a designee
Dr. Robert A. Altenkirch Chair of the Executive Board for the Presidents’ Council, or a designee
Re 279 – There is also a bank owned property on the same street. 190 North Woods (2566305) Current Ask $567,900. Sold 7/25/05 $780,000.
There goes the Newstead neighborhood.
Grim 284 – I was going by the SP listed in the Monmouth County Tax Website
http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4.cgi?&district=0719&block=105&lot=19&qual=
Someone did some careless sloppy data entry. My money is on the government worker.
Re: Glenview
Owner is listed as: SN FUNDING TRUST
Lender owned is my guess.
Buyer tried to flip that for $975k?
Dreamers.
Gator-
Sorry; not at a computer that has a GSMLS-compatible browser right now.
Thanks Grim. This is the nicest neighborhood in South Orange. From all this short/bank owned activity it looks like it’s going the way of Cleveland or Detroit.
Could also be a private trust for the benefit of the owners. Like the one for Ritchie Sambora’s place in Point Pleas.
shore (285)-
Is that Steve Adubato, the CNBC and NJN talking head?
This commission looks like a complete cesspool of uselessness and wasted money.
shore (292)-
Where’s our trust, to protect us against Richie Sambora?
I love GS speak. The folks over there are in panic as the layoffs are being anounced this week. When I asked what is the big deal I got back well in the past when they “quartiled” they picked off the bottom low performers so the performers barely cared. This time they are coming based on salary, how you depatment is doing, how busy your are etc. Actual metrics, since people don’t know how much each other makes for all they know they are the overpaid ones and since GS’s YE is 11-30 they are unsure this week of how bad their areas did in October. Too many variables this time so your head can be cut off easily even if you are working away. Welcome to the real world.
Gator,
SO? C’mon, nobody really wants to live in SO. It’s like that whole Maplewood-is-prime joke that was going around in 2005/2006. I mean, it worked for a while, we suckered a ton of New Yorkers into buying in, but nobody from Jersey drank that kool-aid, did they?
Or Steve Adubato Sr, Essex County Machine Power Broker?
RE: 196 -Boomers – the Shallowest Generation…
They should cheer up soon enough. I heard Dept of Homeland Security’s Human Management Division has already design container for Soylent Green.
It’s coming out in several flavors and vintage. Including Bar-b-que, Latin Sauce, Mexican Spicy, Hempy Grassy & Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds. And vintages of ’44-’53 & ’54-59.
Well, not a trust for the owner, lol:
http://www.phillysheriff.com/3129/197/197-362.PDF
hyper (298)-
They should make into a condiment and package it like green Tabasco sauce.
“It’s hard to see how demand for Treasuries is going to keep up with supply once the risk aversion trade subsides,” said Tony Norris, who oversees $10 billion in international strategies as chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at Evergreen International Advisers in London. “There’s going to be pressure on yields to rise.”
“Foreign official purchases of Treasuries fell by more than half in August, to a net $4.8 billion, from $10.1 billion in July, and an average of $7.5 billion in the preceding 12 months, according to the Treasury Department. Japan, the top holder, sold a net $7.5 billion.”
“At some stage, such a large increase in issuance may lead to a sharp sell-off in U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar,” said Shinji Kunibe, a senior money manager who helps oversee $847 billion globally at the Tokyo branch of JPMorgan Asset Management.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akUo9OCJA3PI&refer=home
296 Grim – Imagine the bloodbath that the West Orange listings must look like. People bought there during the peak for stupid amounts of money because they were priced out of “prestigious” South Orange or Montclair.
I have a coworker who managed to sell his Upper Gregory colonial about a year ago for $590k. The buyers were an employee of Bear and his wife who was leaving her full-time job to start a home business selling organic fabrics. I expect that to reappear as a short sale any day now.
Organic fabrics?
Now they’ve gone too far :P
MOSCOW – Russia’s president says the United States is to blame for the global financial crisis — and presents his case in an online preview of his state-of-the-nation speech.
The highly anticipated speech Wednesday will be President Dmitry Medvedev’s first state-of-the-nation address since taking office in May. A preview of the speech is available in a video posted on the Kremlin Web site.
Medvedev also says he will discuss the international consequences of the war in August that Russia fought with Georgia.
Medvedev has posted several videos on the Kremlin Web site. And his predecessor in the presidency, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, this week unveiled a new Web site for himself.
This scares me more than cold war antics. Russia and China have huge USD reserves and could flood the market and destroy our currency and our economy while they suffer only marginal cost.
Call me paranoid but I don’t think we can nuke them to stop them from dumping USD they own.
Gator, speaking of West Orange, any idea as to why their property taxes are so high as compared to other bordering towns (Verona, Caldwell, etc.?
“At some stage, such a large increase in issuance may lead to a sharp sell-off in U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar,” said Shinji Kunibe, a senior money manager who helps oversee $847 billion globally at the Tokyo branch of JPMorgan Asset Management.
Yes sir and the point is only a couple years away at best.
305 Dink – Not sure. But they are very high and the schools (outside of certain elementary schools) are ranked pretty poorly. They are also going to revalue within the next 2 years, I think.
Dink:
West Orange taxes are so high because they are being used to construct the ‘Great Wall of Orange, which separates West Orange from the evil ghetto of East Orange.
Nom – Re GTG on the 7th. Stu is going to AC to collect our free cruise certificate. I will be on Lil Gator duty that evening. I don’t suppose that the Jolly Trolley is child friendly :)
Stu 307 – Don’t forget the neighboring Orange as well.
Gator, the Jolly Trolley sounds like a choo choo. We already know that junior likes beer,
re: #295 – John there has been allot of deck chair shuffling going over there, in addition to their 360 reviews and how busy and overpaid people think you are comes the dish best served cold.
Round #2 this year may have a round #3 by Dec 31st before the ink is dry on those bonus checks. Partners are still expecting $3 million + in bonus. Eveyone else will be fish food.
Round 1 is this Wed I will give details as soon as they are canned.
GS:
Brother, can you spare a mil?
“Organic fabrics?”
AND, they are invisible. Only the gifted can see them.
it scares you only because your shining stuff is not shining right now.
> This scares me more than cold war antics. Russia and China have huge USD reserves and could flood the market and destroy our currency and our economy while they suffer only marginal cost.
Does anybody else miss the excitement in the markets? I refreshed my browser multiple times thinking that it was frozen.
Bi:
If the dollar is destroyed, how do you think gold will react?
#318 victorian: I would have thought that with the absolutely stunningly bad auto sales#’s that the market would have reacted negatively to say the least.
3b
Did you not get the memo? Happy days are here again.
All this South Orange talk takes me back. A friend lived in South Orange and loved it, raved about the town, the people, the schools, the commute (she was always late – should have tipped me off). Tried to persuade me and the wife to move there from Manhattan, and as we were already looking at Montclair, we looked around. It seemed great, but the prices scared me away. All the chatter here about the high school didn’t help.
My friend has since moved to Basking Ridge. Be careful about “move near me” advice. Sometimes people just want confirmation that they didn’t make a mistake.
318#, if the dollar is destroyed, the world will be destroyed and you will be destroyed. got it?
what are the issues with SO and the school?
#320 shore:Happy days are here again.
Too funny!!!
bi (322) –
– Oh, the hubris!
Parents are West Orange residents. The taxes are ridiculous. Out of a tax bill of 13K:
7.5K to schools.
1.5-2K to county
4.5K to various other services.
It’s insane.
“if the dollar is destroyed, the world will be destroyed and you will be destroyed. got it?”
not really bloke.
there will be an emergence of a new currency. a new currency based on unions, rather than sovergn nation states.
i.e euro & amero.
and who will have no choice, other than to accept it as it will be the only for of exchange.
SAS
Light Crude (NYM)
December 08 ($US per bbl.) 63.91
Lindsey Williams is looking more and more spot on with each passing day.
SAS
323 Shore – SO shares a HS with Maplewood. Both towns have economic and racial diversity. These are not Millburn or Glen Ridge suburbs.
Words to live, and tax, by:
http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/179.html
Shore Guy
I don’t know, but when I was looking in SO, there was a LOT of talk about how bad the High School was. Completely unverified, but also, no one on the report disputed it (that I saw). It didn’t stop me, since I felt priced out I didn’t investigate.
bi [322],
Just the opposite. If the dollar gains continue, you are destroyed.
“Both towns have economic and racial diversity”
GASP! You mean, some families drive domestic cars?
13K in taxes is only outrageous if house if valued at under 800K. If a town has very little commercial taxes and is mainly families with kids school taxes are going to kill your.
“Organic fabrics?”
look into Polybrominated diphenyl ethers.
SAS
334 John – Welcome to Essex County. This is the norm. Try 13k in taxes for a house valued under 600k in a town with ratables. In a town without ratables, you can pay 15-16k.
if you injest anything from China.. hope you enjoy cancer.
“China Is Becoming the Biggest Producer of Pharmaceutical Ingredients in the World”
http://tinyurl.com/5cf5eg
331 Ray – According to NJ Monthly, Columbia HS is ranked 89th in the state. Compared to:
Millburn 1
Glen Ridge 5
Montclair 85
West Orange 114
Chatham 10
Madison 35
Summit 22
Gator,
But proximity to NY makes this a bargain. Besides, it tends to keep the riff raff out.
Yes, another bull market; treasury supply.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Treasurys-borrowing-plans-could-beat/story.aspx?guid=%7BEC3D7260%2D6FD3%2D4580%2DA5A5%2DF635E6E8B97D%7D&dist=hplatest
Gator,
Do you have the link? I was looking for that ranking just this weekend and couldn’t remember who did it.
But proximity to NY makes this a bargain. Besides, it tends to keep the riff raff out.
Isn’t that what the wall is for?
maybe this will work
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/02/magazine/02fda-t.html?_r=4&oref=slogin&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
http://njmonthly.com/articles/towns_and_schools/highschoolrankings/top-new-jersey-high-schools-by-rank.html
Shore 339 – When Stu and I were both city commuters, we decided we’d rather pay a little extra in property taxes than pay NJT for a long commute x 2. It’s $309/month/person to travel to NYP from Matawan. From Glen Ridge it’s only $135. I’d rather pay a little extra in property taxes which are deductible outside of AMT and get the quality of life of the shorter commute.
Gator,
See! JUst don’t let the town council read that.
Besides,
The commute to NY from Matawan and south is the pits. And, traveling by car to other points north is no joy.
The Great American Housing Nightmare: Next Phase
by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. 11-03-08
Every time, I think, I will now start looking for houses, I come across one such article and then put off my search.
bi Says:
November 3rd, 2008 at 4:15 pm
it scares you only because your shining stuff is not shining right now.
> This scares me more than cold war antics. Russia and China have huge USD reserves and could flood the market and destroy our currency and our economy while they suffer only marginal cost.
Do not worry about russian reserves:
http://02varvara.wordpress.com/2008/03/02/russian-gold-and-hard-currency-reserves-are-at-record-levels/
From March 2008: gold and hard currency reserve holdings hit a record of 483.9 billion US dollars, having increased by 2.6 billion USD in a week, the Central Bank said. Russia has the world’s third largest gold and hard currency reserves after China and Japan.
And from October 30th 2008:
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/10/30/business/EU-Russia-Currency-Reserves.php
The central bank said in a statement its international foreign exchange reserves fell to $484.7 billion as of Friday, down from $515.7 billion a week before.
So the third largest reserves in the world: – and it is only 487 billions – come on, US GOVERMENT gives away 700 billions like it is nothing!!!!
Grim – unmod 349 please
If China or Russia will dump dollar it won’t be that bad. Real trouble would be if they refuse to accept dollars as payment currency, and I do not see it is happening – not right now. Euro seemed like a good candidate a while back, but right now with all Euro-zone economic foes it is just doesn’t seem very likely.
There is an advantage of being a world currency – it is really hard to replace you. And you can export your inflation to the world!!!
Yes. But than why would any one want to be out looking to purchase a house right now, unlesss money is of no consequence.
How can anyone bid with any degree of confidence?
I will try and answer my own question. The people out buying right now do not have a clue that any of this is going on,and the realtors if they do are not saying anything?
our reasons are 3-fold:
1) lease is up, and our landlord wont let us do a month-to-month
2) we are flush with cash now, and able to put down 40%
3) not sure if you’ve seen/read about this deflation/inflation/printing money stuff. if that happens in 2 years, then all that money we saved is worthless
347 Shore – I commuted from Matawan to Midtown East for 2 years. I lived in Marlboro, a good 15 minute ride from the station without traffic, so I had to leave my house 30 minutes before the train was scheduled. I will never do it again.
My line in the sand is 45 minutes Midtown Direct. Whenever Stu says something like ‘We could live in East Hanover and I can drive you to the train in Chatham’, I snap at him and don’t let him finish his sentence. I would sooner look for a NJ based job then suffer that kind of hellish commute.
re: Old people and Credit cards …
Wife’s grandpa had a great line at a bday party about 6 months before he passed away about being in debt at his age. i dont remember it exact, but essentially, he said that he knew his days were numbered (he was 82/83) and he knew it didnt matter.
so he bought some nice presents for his grandkids on his way out the door. i laughed heartily when he told this story.
Yikes, were you lauging at the absurdity of it? All that means is paying off the debt becomes someone elses responsibilty.
Gator,
I am so old that I remember the last run of the last steam locomotive pulling into the Matawan station.
The Matawan station is not exactly located so as to allow quick ins and outs. Wnen in Monmouth and going to Manhattan, the boat is a nice alternative, but, only if one lives nearby.
Would 50.5 say these new toys are unpatriotic?
http://finance.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chdet=1225755716784&chddm=1173&cmpto=AMEX:PST&cmptzos=-18000&q=AMEX:TBT&ntsp=0
Shore 356 – Stu is laughing. Ferry not a good option if you live in Western Monmouth.
And of course, the MOM line, if it is ever built will not be routed in a way that will make people use it. I mean take the train from Manalapan/Freehold down to Red Bank to get to NY? Utterly ridiculous.
Best option currently is the bus, but it’s uncomfortable and not very reliable.
No. The boats only work for Monmouth Beach north to Highlands and the Rumson, Fairhaven, and environs, area.
Hovercraft might work from Cream Ridge. I expect to see MOM right after my first tax cut from O — never.
Gator,
Frankly, even the train from Spring Lake to Manhattan is a major grind.
I don’t know why we are even bothering with a damn election. I’m watching TV and I’m absolutely steaming mad. “That one” has practically been given the election by the major networks. “That one” and his allies have stolen this election.
Keep my name off your damn keyboard.
Terrorist.
Sean Says:
November 3rd, 2008 at 6:46 pm
Would 50.5 say these new toys are unpatriotic?
Yikes 231,
in that scenario there would be nothing to buy at the traditional grocery stores for a while. Consider the posts i have put up about JIT supply chains and how fragile they are. Our current JIT supply chain system would not survive such the intial transition and would have to be restructured/rebuilt.
#352 Yikes: we are flush with cash now, and able to put down 40%
And once you out that 40% down? It is now tied up in the house.
Shore 360 – Have not taken it past Red Bank, and that was a major haul. That’s why I laugh at our friend who thinks his River Plaza home will maintain it’s value due to it’s proximity to NY.
I have taken the Acela express down to Wilmington and always find it amazing that I can get to Delaware in less time than it takes to get from Monmouth County to NY.
SAS,
PCBS are the tip of the iceberg. But look at this way, we are accelerating the evolution of a human who can happily live in a toxic waste dump. We are actually doing to ourselves what we did to bacteria with antibiotics. If the toxic compound doesnt kill all of the subjects off and they continue to reproduce then you have just forced them to evolve to be more resistant.
SUPER HUMANS!!!!!!
may take 50,000 years or so……
how are the middle and lower class faring so far????
how about this as an indicator…. and its not good
In Pennsylvania, PPL Corp. increased shutoffs by 78% in the first three quarters of the year compared with the same period a year earlier. Shutoffs at electric utilities throughout the state increased by 20% in that period. George Lewis, a spokesman for PPL, based in Allentown, Pa., said the utility had been somewhat lax in the past but decided this year to “reverse the trend and prevent people from getting further in debt” by cutting them off sooner. About 3% of the company’s residential accounts have been disconnected for delinquency.
In Memphis, Tenn., the city-owned utility that supplies electricity, natural gas and water to residents cut off 38% more people in the first eight months of the year, or 69,743 electric accounts, versus the same period in 2007. The utility raised electricity rates 20% this year, reflecting increased wholesale power costs for energy. Chris Stanley, a spokesman from the company, Memphis Light, Gas & Water, said the number of accounts owing more than $900 that were 90 days or more past due was up 148% to 1,766 accounts as of Oct. 28. The increased number of shutoffs has attracted the attention of some regulators. Dian Grueneich, a member of the California Public Utilities Commission who has responsibility for low-income programs, has begun asking utilities to furnish information on shutoff criteria. She wants commission staff to “take a look and make sure it is being applied fairly.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122567355463991711.html
Nobel Winner Aumann Says Bernanke, Paulson Steps ‘Not Smart’
Robert J. Aumann, the Israeli economist who won the 2005 Nobel Prize in economics, said the steps taken by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to save financial markets “weren’t smart.”
“The intervention by the regulators to save the U.S. economy will lead to further bankruptcies of banks and insurance companies,” Aumann said at a rabbinical conference in Jerusalem yesterday. “They are only encouraging institutions to take more uncalculated risks.” The crisis in the financial markets was caused by the incentives provided to managers of banks and other financial institutions that caused them to act to their own benefit and not the banks’, he said. Bonuses were given on the basis of loan sales, without considering who the borrowers were, he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601069&sid=azH.b7NrSh3k&refer=fedwatch
grim
the news is mainstream now…..
Circuit City to Close 155 Stores, Cut U.S. Workforce
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiOSyn8HiowQ&refer=home
you are better off taking money from from a russian loan shark then the IMF…..Pakistan just sold its soul.
Bitter fruits of IMF bailout
http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=17970
“Imposition of the agriculture tax will be made mandatory at the rate of seven per cent on wheat production and 3.5 per cent on other crops,” it maintains. The proposals say that the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) would submit quarterly report to the Islamabad office of the IMF for the monitoring and analysis of revenue collection as direct and indirect taxes. The IMF would propose changes wherever it wanted, it adds. The document says the IMF representative would be part of the FBR administrative structure and offices of the fund would be set up in all the provincial headquarters to monitor the general sales tax collection at the provincial level.
The proposals also say that six IMF directors and two World Bank directors would monitor preparation of the federal budget in the finance ministry. They would give budget proposals and the Pakistan government would be obliged to comply with all these proposals. “The Pakistan government will have to provide details of loans it got from all other lenders, including China, 48 hours before signing the funding agreement with the IMF and 25 per cent of the government assets pledged as securities for such loans will be the property of the IMF,” the document says.
SAS
why isnt china stepping up and offering some sort of money to these nations??? they may have their own issues, but they certainly have some dollars they can stand to loan out
The real question may be what will happen IF the new administration decides to allow the FDIC to get into the Mortgage Loan Modification business on a national scale…specifically, will there soon be a process to allow for principle write downs of mortgage balances. Some think thats exactly what will soon be the defacto way for the lenders to deal with troubled mortgages…
http://www.TimandJulieHarris.com to read more about this…
No thoughts on ballot question #1 regarding issuance of NJ debt? Sounds good in theroy, but the fact that it has bipartisan support brings out the cynic in me and makes me question what the ulterior motives are. I cant make 2 cents of it.
Dink,
i dont remember where i read it, but one opinion i read recently was;
there is bipartisan support because it would allow the end run bonds that the gov has issued to be legitimized as of right now they could be open to questioning.
cant back it up, just one opinion i read.
Non-election election question.
How will the market react if O wins? M wins?
d2b-i think we’ll see a bump either way, a resolution, with no prolonged lawsuit like in 2000 is more important in the short term than who wins.
Makes little difference d2b. IMO. Just worry about macroeconomic trends and nothing else.
vodka (370)-
No soul to sell. Bin Laden got it years ago, on the cheap.
dink (373)-
As with most NJ ballot initiatives like this, we lose either way.
Wanna deliver a message tomorrow? Don’t vote.
d2b (375)-
An O win has been baked in. When he is declared the winner, maybe we get a little more selling on the news.
M wins, big rally.
If I have any opinion at all on this sheeple show, it’s that I don’t want a big rally.
BOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRDMR9vuTqY&fmt=18
“How will the market react if O wins? M wins?”
O win has been priced in already, but if MC wins it should cause a short-term boost for the market on Wednesday (ie probability of anti-business legislation, such as forced unionization, mandates for small businesses etc is smaller). Anyway, other events will probably have bigger effect.
“why isnt china stepping up and offering some sort of money to these nations?”
not sure bloke.
I know China is salivating to take over Taiwan right now.
hard to say.
SAS
chi (381)-
I have Mike Morgan.
You have these necrophiliacs.
Truce?
“WALLSTREET BAILOUT America is going down the toilet”
http://tinyurl.com/3jskdm
kettle1 Says:
November 3rd, 2008 at 7:58 pm
how are the middle and lower class faring so far????
how about this as an indicator…. and its not good
dude: do you have to be such an insufferable mope? Can’t you ever post “…ah the pretty sunflowers…” “…running with glee in fields of corn…”….you always sound as if you type on the keyboard with fingertips crusted over with Preparation H.
sas (383)-
What do you know about Argentina right now?
Rockin’ GG tonight.
A new word added to the English language in this episode:
“lacrosstitute”
Clot, I thought you were watching The Hills.
clot: oh my God…your doppleganger has arisen……..
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24732333/
we used to call em laxtitutes back in the day
Speaking of sports…take note, Brigadoonians:
1st round of NJ state soccer tourney, this Thursday, Nov. 6:
North Hunterdon vs Brigadoon, at Brigadoon.
Daughter advises Brigadoon kids on Facebook already acting like they’ve won.
Not smart. Not smart at all.
“What do you know about Argentina right now?”
economics going south, might see another crisis. not as bad as the currency crisis sometime back.
SAS
chi (390)-
Naah. Laffer’s way too hands on for my taste.
Gotta wanna see it all burn down to be my Doppelganger.
syb (389)-
GG girls way hotter. Hills is so ’07…
Ha. I guess my SO is still stuck in ’07. The show makes me cringe.
More money, more money.
With your contributions I am getting a new S class.
Thanks Clotpoll and BC Bob
“New Jersey Democratic Gov Jon Corzine on Monday rejected a call by a Republican state senator for more oversight of state pension stakes in hedge funds, saying the U.S. bank bailout should safeguard the investments.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN0335185020081104?rpc=44
chifi,
i get paid to find the weakness in complex systems. i am apparently good at it…… i guess i bing my work home with me.
its not really gloomy though. you have to figure out what the core problem in a system is before trying to fix it otherwise you waste your time.
Has anyone ever seen this woman present? She is an IRA and employee benefit tax law expert. She often writes a column for Morningstar.
It is literally the most bizarre sight ever…she is basically Hillary Clinton doing a DEAD-ON flawless impression of Heath Ledger’s the Joker, and she carries on with the demeanor Jim Carey as a Tax and IRA withdrawl expert.
http://www.nutter.com/attorneys.php?AttorneyID=213
I sat through a 2 hour technical meeting and it was surreal.
well, looks like I will be voting 3rd party candidate party tomorrow.
I ain’t voting for those 2 puppets that control nothing.
If you blokes out there want change, quit falling for the false left/right…Rep/Dem debate. You knuckleheads play right into their hands when you get caught up in such discussions.
Break out of the false debate, become active and hold all politicans feet to the fire, realize the private Federal reserve & corporations hijacked the govt, and squeezing every drop of blood out of out, and want you to die, to then squeeze the shit out of your kids.
Quit sucking your thumbs and wet the bed.
Time to take back the country from corporatism, because I..for one… am too old for this shit and can’t fight the good fight all by myself.
SAS
kettle,
like we said in Vietnam:
“ain’t no atheists in foxholes”
SAS
Syb (396)-
Turning on C-Span is what makes me cringe.
this SNL is so petty.
I’m off too bed. In the mood for some classical music..
night blokes
SAS
Frank (397)-
I hope the first thing you do with that car is t-bone a bridge abutment.
sas (403)-
Dude, somebody should just film three days of your life.
went to an open house on saturday. house has been on the market at least 6 months, but this was the first time i could visit. the sign outside said “price reduced”. two bored realtors sat at the 1930s kitchen table, next to the 1930s kitchen sink and telephone (rotary!)… handed me a flyer that listed the house at “899k”… i said, “but i thought the sign said price reduced?” “this *is* the reduced price” said the agents.
my 4 year old got to learn about how water marks on the ceiling of the first floor are particularly bad, and wallpaper peeling off the walls in huge sheets is not a good sign, either. i liked the cold cellar in the basement, though. it could hold a lot of potatoes.
i gave the realtors my actual phone number, and said, “call me when the price gets reduced again.”
“make your best offer!” said one of the agents, suddenly looking perky. “$780k!”
i just shook my head “too much work needs to be done. it’s still overpriced”
as i closed the screen door the other agent wailed “you could live in it while you fix it up!”
ha. with the amount of mold lurking in those walls?… i just walked away.
weird thing was it had clearly not been inhabited, let alone taken care of, for years. weeds had broken up the concrete driveway in the back. i guess the sellers don’t really want to sell…
# Ben Says:
November 3rd, 2008 at 1:32 pm
yikes,
why do you fear that? That’s the most honest monetary system we could possibly have.
Do all your friends and family have gold? Are they prepared for this?
Lost: Best cover of a DM song is hands down Johnny Cash, but for pure hilarity, nothing can tops these freak maniacs….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbUej2HRKaY
# 3b Says:
November 3rd, 2008 at 7:32 pm
#352 Yikes: we are flush with cash now, and able to put down 40%
And once you out that 40% down? It is now tied up in the house.
3b – we’ve been saving for several years now, and it includes the profits from flipping a house. so that 40% downpayment is only about 75% of our savings.
financial adviser recommends 6 months “living expenses” and we’ll have 8ish after purchasing the house.
clot,
great GG episode.
i had to google TTFN.
i plan on using it tomorrow while voting.