Election Day Open Discussion

Posted on November 4, 2008 by grim

First, go vote.

Second, talk about it here.

Third, assume the identity of a dead relative and vote again. (Hudson Country Residents only, please!)

This entry was posted in Politics. Bookmark the permalink.

515 Responses to Election Day Open Discussion

  1. grim says:
    November 4, 2008 at 5:59 am

    From the WSJ:

    New Economic Ills Will Force Winner’s Hand
    Big Drop in Auto Sales, Factory Output Worsen Outlook on Eve of Election; Calls for Swift Action to Loom Over Next President
    By BOB DAVIS, JONATHAN WEISMAN and TIMOTHY AEPPEL

    With a fresh blast of bearish news hitting just before the presidential election, Tuesday’s victor will be under rising pressure to put his stamp on U.S. economic policy well before his Jan. 20 inauguration.
    …
    “We’re dealing with a situation that could develop into another Great Depression, if not handled properly,” says Daniel DiMicco, chief executive of Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker Nucor Corp., who spent an hour in line on Friday waiting to cast an early vote.

    Few economists predict the world is in for a repeat of the 1930s. But the deepening problems — rising joblessness and home foreclosures, falling consumer spending and tight credit — are prompting calls from businesses and Congress for quick action by the next president to clarify, and begin working on, his economic agenda.
    …
    Three economic challenges are apt to dominate the early days of the new presidency: mending the economy; reshaping the battered financial industry; and crafting a policy for China, America’s biggest creditor and an economic rival.

    The slumping economy is the top issue. Many economists forecast that the U.S. will fall into its deepest recession since the early 1980s, with some predicting unemployment above 8% by 2010, up from 6.1% today. Former Reagan economist Martin Feldstein, a McCain adviser, recently endorsed a stimulus plan of as much as $300 billion.
    …
    A large stimulus package wouldn’t forestall a recession, though it could accelerate a recovery. Moody’s Economy.Com analyzed the effect of a $300 billion stimulus program tilted heavily toward spending. The unemployment rate in a post-stimulus economy would hit 7.7% in 2010, the firm estimates, compared with 8.9% without any stimulus help.

    But a stimulus plan has drawbacks. One is the possibility that the spending becomes permanent, adding to the mounting U.S. debt and undermining U.S. finances as baby boomers begin to retire and government outlays for them rise.
    …
    Deeper debt also means heavier borrowing. The Treasury is expected to sell about $2 trillion in debt next year, about twice last year’s record, Goldman Sachs estimates, largely because of government borrowing to prop up financial institutions. While long-term Treasury rates have so far remained low, at around 4%, heavier borrowing could drive up general interest rates and “cancel all the stimulus,” says Robert Litan, a former Clinton administration budget official, who is now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a liberal-leaning Washington, D.C., think tank.

    Another big challenge to face the president-elect is deciding how big a role the government should play in the economy, including picking winners and losers among companies competing for federal dollars, and sharpening financial regulation. Bush Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is preparing rooms at the Treasury for a transition team to assure smooth coordination. Many decisions being made now will bind the next administration, especially how to spend the $700 billion rescue budget. While the presidential candidates talked generally about financial regulation during the campaign, they didn’t propose specific solutions.

  2. Essex says:
    November 4, 2008 at 6:12 am

    I just want to say that no matter what happens today….I am proud to be a broke American.

  3. Jersey Jim says:
    November 4, 2008 at 6:29 am

    What does O say, Change We Can Believe In? That is because if he gets in office all we’ll have left is change.

  4. sas says:
    November 4, 2008 at 6:43 am

    Songbird McStain & Omama

    Two puppets that control nothing, already bought and paid for by the Federal Reserve & Corporate Big boys.

    An election? ha, your dreaming. Its a selection.

    Remember, these clowns view you as consumers and not as citizens.

    Now go back to shopping, or back to work till you pass out dead.

    SAS

  5. Cindy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 6:47 am

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/31/AR2008103104001_pf.html

    Here is the Washington Post article I mentioned yesterday regarding IndyMac and their new creative foreclosure modification program.

    excerpts…

    “Inside the stone-and-glass headquarters of IndyMac Federal Bank, regulators are carrying out an experiment that could change the course of the financial crisis by tackling the home foreclosures that are at its root.”

    “The IndyMac initiative is seen as a way to test some aggresive methods for breaking through traditional barriers to loan modifications. For instance, regulators are using a formula -rather than individually scrutinizing each borrower-to try to decide who should and should not be saved from foreclosure. In addition, regulators have won the cooperation of a major Wall Street firm in their mortgage modification effort, something critical to their success.”

    “But the initiative is also uncovering unexpectedly tough challenges, among them the frustration of having a complicated mix of loans in the bank’s portfolio. borrowers who are difficult to reach, and a number of homeowners whom regulators cannot legally help.”

    The FDIC is skipping the traditional but time-consuming approach of making customized modifications to individual mortgages. Instead, regulators are plugging homeowner’s incomes into a formula to determine how much they can afford to pay. – usually 38% of their gross monthly income. Regulators first try to reach that payment level by lowering the interest rate. If that isn’t sufficient, they then extend the term of the loan to 40 years. If that also is insufficient, homeowners might pay interest only on only a portion of the principal.”

    “Is it perfect? No. Is it effective? Yes, said Mike Krimminger, special policy adviser to the FDIC, who was dispatched to California to head the program he helped design. “Streamlining makes a big difference in being able to apply this to a lot of mortgages.”

    IndyMac has three main types of loans in its portfolio. Some are mortgages it owns. Others are loans it has managed for other lenders, such as Lehman Brothers. Still others are loans that have been bundled into pools, know as mortgage-backed securities, governed by agreement or rules that dictate what, if any, changes can be made to their terms.”

    The FDIC can easily rework the loans IndyMac owns.

    Regulators achieved a breakthrough with the second type after persuading Lehman Brothers, the investment bank under bankruptcy proceedings, to allow its 38,000 loans in IndyMac’s portfolio to be included in the modification program. FDIC officials hope to use Lehman’s example to persuade others to sign on.”

    The key, agency officials said, will be convincing lenders that a modified loan, even with a reduced interest rate, will be more profitable than a foreclosure.

    LOTS MORE….

    It ends with…”Even after homeowners receive loan modifications, there is still a considerable risk they will default. In the past, about 40% of homeowners were delinquent again within one year of receiving a traditional loan modification, according to a recent Credit Suisse report. And some industry officials warn that the proportion could jump if the economic downturn deepens, throwing more people out of work.”

  6. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 6:51 am

    This country continues to squander its every blessing and advantage. Perhaps when the pain becomes too intense to bear, a few more people will wake up and see that we’ve allowed ourselves to be duped and robbed blind.

    Until then, we continue to spiral downward. The only change this election will signify is a change in the people who blow sunshine up our asses while stealing and spending at record pace.

    The President’s primary job has devolved into being a sort of national game show host. One of the biggest reasons people hate Bush is that he’s a bad emcee and runs a distant second to Alex Trebek in the categories of eloquent and suave. Well, we are about to get elegant and suave.

    Just make sure you hold on to your wallet while he talks.

  7. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 6:53 am

    As for me and mine, still looking for a viable expat destination.

  8. Everything's 'boken says:
    November 4, 2008 at 6:55 am

    lengthy lines in Montclair. Poor setup will lead to long waits and frustration. Vote early!

  9. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 6:59 am

    Cindy (5)-

    Good catch. Just amazing stuff. Spend resources and energy on a program that is destined to fail anyway. But, not only will the program fail…it will be so fraught with moral hazard that future investors and borrowers in mortgage markets may simply eschew participation.

    Yeah, this is the way to fix housing markets.

    This is why voting is an utter waste of time. No elected official on either side of the aisle will lift a finger to stop this madness, and the career bureaucrats who think up this garbage answer to no one.

    “It ends with…’Even after homeowners receive loan modifications, there is still a considerable risk they will default. In the past, about 40% of homeowners were delinquent again within one year of receiving a traditional loan modification, according to a recent Credit Suisse report. And some industry officials warn that the proportion could jump if the economic downturn deepens, throwing more people out of work.”

  10. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:01 am

    I’ve had a couple of clients receive modification offers from their lenders.

    The workouts are bigger screw jobs than the original loans.

    I’ve got to believe a lot of the workouts are offered in the hope that it will trap the borrower in his home for the rest of his life.

  11. Cindy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:02 am

    (9) Clot –

    A positive take on the process could be that they can then say “at least we tried.” THEN the house goes into foreclosure as it should have in the first place. Granted, a year late – but into foreclosure none the less….

  12. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:02 am

    Go have a beer. This thing was bought and paid for months ago.

  13. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:05 am

    Cindy (11)-

    And- after the house goes into foreclosure- then what? The mortgage market will be bereft of investors (since contracts can be breached at will) and borrowers (since confidence in financing markets will be shattered, and price discovery will be near-impossible in an environment of artificial valuation and double bust-outs on single properties).

  14. frank says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:08 am

    Please vote for Democrats today, so I can buy myself a nice Benz with you pension money. Thx

  15. frank says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:12 am

    Clotpoll moving out of the country?? May I suggest a destination?? How about Iran or Cuba? They love free speech.

  16. Yikes says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:12 am

    Backed H Clinton. don’t feel the same way about Barry O. but can’t vote for John M mostly because of the Alaskan.

    Was going to vote 3rd party, but PA is a crucial state, so reluctantly, i’ll vote for Barry O.

    is there chaos tonight in the streets … regardless of who wins? those right-wing nuts have been sounding increasingly angry the last few days on the radio …

  17. frank says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:13 am

    Spain “delay half their mortgage payments for up to two years under a government proposal”…name that tune

    http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/europe/article5076162.ece

  18. Orion says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:13 am

    Wishful thinking: Ross Perot

  19. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:16 am

    frank (15)-

    For a hedgie, your thought processes seem strangely caveman.

  20. Satish says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:19 am

    Hi Grim

    You saved me thousands of dollars and gave me peace of mind.

    Thank you
    Satish

  21. victorian says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:20 am

    Please remember,even if you cant vote for somebody, you can always vote against somebody.

  22. Cindy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:21 am

    (13) Clot

    Then What?

    I think/feel really – that there are folks with money – always – who will be willing to pick up bargain R/E in CA.

    The major work of ferreting out the owner, getting paper work in place on the house, offering the owner a “chance” to stay will be accomplished.

    It is a drawn out process to be sure but the houses will eventually hit the market at the reduced value and the banks have a chance to stretch out the “hit” on losses.

    You gotta laugh though – a “formula.” geez

  23. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:26 am

    Cindy (22)-

    Seems to me the buying that’s picking up in the hard-hit areas occurs because gubmint and lenders get out of the way.

    The assets in question are allowed to drop to current market value without the moral hazard of bailout and the financial manipulation of loan workouts that are really meant to create an artificial floor under unsustainable value.

  24. Cindy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:27 am

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_ownership

    Check out the home ownership percentage for Spain – 85%

    They were bound to come crashing down…

  25. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:27 am

    vic (21)-

    You can also have a beer and watch Champions League.

    Liverpool v Atletico today.

  26. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:29 am

    Cindy (24)-

    Spain is still one of my candidates to be the spark that blows up the whole planet. The situation there makes ours look under control.

  27. victorian says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:30 am

    Clot (23)-
    “financial manipulation of loan workouts that are really meant to create an artificial floor under unsustainable value.”

    – But then, what about the MBS? We can’t allow any more writedowns now, can we?

  28. Cindy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:32 am

    (23) Clot – I agree – When everyone gets out of the way – the deal gets done.

    But there is such an outcry of “Give me a chance – you robbed me etc.” that the modifications (even though the stats show they don’t work all that well) are an attempt to appease the angry homeowners who feel they were jilted.

    Maybe some will make good and retain ownership. But as you always say – Mr. Market will win. It is simply a delaying process in the name of “fairness” to the current “owners.”

    Those that only wanted to flip will walk away anyway. Maybe it will help some who honestly intended to live in the place.

    It may delay the inevitable – but I see it is an attempt to offer “fairness” to the process.

  29. grim says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:35 am

    The mortgage market will be bereft of investors (since contracts can be breached at will) and borrowers (since confidence in financing markets will be shattered, and price discovery will be near-impossible in an environment of artificial valuation and double bust-outs on single properties).

    … and interest rates on these loans will begin to approach the type of loans they’ve become, unsecured.

  30. cooper says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:37 am

    GM All- is there any new news on the gov’t paying off credit card debt? just looking to feel crappy about my lack of debt today.
    Vote.

  31. grim says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:39 am

    Bloomberg reporting that UBS laid off 700 in NY last week? Not sure if I heard that right.

  32. reinvestor101 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:43 am

    Please. If you love this country, you WILL NOT VOTE for “That One”. He has tried to steal this election and his associations are troublesome.

  33. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:52 am

    Cindy (28)-

    Fairness is highly overrated.

  34. jamil says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:53 am

    I won’t make those hollywood idiot rants about moving to France or Canada if X is elected, but frankly, moving to France does not sound that bad next year: It is more conservative, it has lower taxes, more aggressive foreign policy and better food.

    Sad how things change..

  35. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:54 am

    cooper (30)-

    Go rent “Brewster’s Millions”. Plenty of great ideas on how to spend money real fast.

  36. AntiTrump says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:54 am

    Off Topic:

    Since gas is down to 2.50 in NJ, it’s time to buy that V8 monster truck again..

  37. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:55 am

    jamil (34)-

    Unfortunately, many of France’s “conservatives” have a big problem with people who have names like Jamil.

  38. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:57 am

    Trump (36)-

    Lots of people on 78 are driving 75-80 mph again.

  39. All Hype says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:57 am

    Hello everyone:

    Just wanted to give a shout out to everyone on this election day. Look forward to more unchecked spending and hyperinflation for the next 4 years.

    It does not matter who gets in, we are screwed.

  40. Cindy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:58 am

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Some-Wall-Street-want-a/story.aspx?guid=%7BF1EE1BBC%2D4725%2D4D27%2DA7B5%2D4927392A5218%7D

    “Mark-to-Market Manipulation”
    Commentary: Efforts to change accounting rules would set back reform
    MarketWatch – David Weidner

    Fair Value – eBay Rule

    “The accountants instead favor what I like to think of as the eBay Rule. They say a balance sheet needs to be made up of assets that can be converted to cash. There’s no better way to find the value of something than to put it on sale.”

    “Here’s the bottom line: A temporary suspension of FAS 157 would be a return to the fantasy world that created the credit crisis. Banks overvalued toxic, extremely riskey, dead-on-arrival securities to begin with. Why would the government allow them to go back to that lack of standards?”

  41. Orion says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:59 am

    From UBS 3rd quarter report (Bloomberg):

    “The number of people employed at UBS was 79,565 on 30 September 2008, down by 1,887 compared with the end of second quarter 2008, with a reduction of 574 in the Investment Bank.”

  42. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:01 am

    The whole civil security force statement by O has me concerned. That is my greatest concern from what i have heard of our next president, how long before we end up with Brown shorts 2.0? given the trend towards polarization of american politics lately i think it could be in the realm of possibility…..

    Clott

    The powers that be are trying their hardest to bury the news about spain. Its almost as if there is a semi news blackout on that nations situation….. You can smell the fear from the other side of the pond.

  43. jamil says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:02 am

    “Unfortunately, many of France’s “conservatives” have a big problem with people who have names like Jamil.”

    Like Zidane? The contempt is limited to local section8 residents who tend to riot whenever they get a chance..

  44. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:03 am

    ooppps no pun intended….

    “The whole civil security force statement by O has me concerned. That is my greatest concern from what i have heard of our next president, how long before we end up with Brown shirts 2.0? given the trend towards polarization of american politics lately i think it could be in the realm of possibility…..”

  45. NJGator says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:04 am

    Brief break for real estate this AM. Two new Montclair listings in my inbox today. One priced $150k below assessment. The other $115k below assessment. One of the 2 listings was a 4BR colonial priced under $475k that is not in the south end. Don’t let anyone tell you that prices are holding up here.

    Now go out and vote no matter who you support.

  46. NJGator says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:07 am

    Also appearing in Gator’s inbox today:

    What’s the definition of optimism? An investment banker who irons five shirts on a Sunday evening.

    What is the capital of Iceland? About $3.50

    I tried to get cash from an ATM today, but it said “insufficient funds.” I don’t know if that meant them or me.

    What’s the difference between an investment banker and a large pizza? The pizza can still feed a family of four.

    What does a hedge-fund manager with no fund to manage say? Would you like fries with that sir?

    The credit crunch is getting bad, isn’t it? I mean, I let my brother borrow 10 bucks a couple weeks back. It turns out I’m now America’s fourth-biggest lender.

  47. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:09 am

    jamil (43)-

    Nice to see you’re a self-loathing ethnic, on top of being a royal douche.

    “Local Section 8 residents”? You’ve got to be kidding. Weeks and months of rioting and car-burning in Paris is more than a “local uprising”.

    Whether or not you agree with the massive Muslim migration into France, it is shameful what that country has done with their urban populations. It is eerily similar to Krakow or Warsaw, pre-WWII.

    France can barely sustain its native population. Everybody else there basically lives under kennel-like quarantine.

  48. Cindy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:10 am

    (46) Yeah! Gator…I love a good laugh in the morning…

  49. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:12 am

    jamil (43)-

    Zidane would be the first to tell you how horrible things are for immigrants all over the southern coast of France. The Le Pen thing is really nasty stuff. Like Alabama in 1964.

  50. Mikeinwaiting says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:16 am

    Why does France keep the door open if they have no work for these folks? It would seem they don’t like or want them.

  51. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:16 am

    Clott,

    all nations have their historical demons, The US included.

    France is treading a very dangerous social path. Like most nations, it appears to be ignoring inconvienent parts of its history.

    ChiFi:

    The happy kettle report for the day:

    The financial and social choas that we are in the initial process of passing through will present a once in a century opportunity to change the direction of our social and economic institutions. We will not see the results,For better or for worse, for some time, but similar to the new deal era, we are mostly likely entering another “american revolution” as defined by Skeptic the other day. This opportunity is a good thing, how we use it is yet to be seen.

    “destruction breeds creation”

  52. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:17 am

    mike (50)-

    Hard to figure. They really don’t want them & hate them from the minute they arrive.

  53. bi says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:20 am

    Chicago must be at color orange or red?

    Toledo Police brace for possible civil unrest

    http://www.wnwo.com/news/news_story.aspx?id=216464

  54. Cindy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:21 am

    (51) Kettle – Ah, Creative Destruction – the one interesting component of the Greenspan book.

  55. Mikeinwaiting says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:22 am

    Clot 52 That is my take also, can’t figure them out either. They really hate these people, so don’t let them keep coming! It is their country after all.

  56. grim says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:22 am

    From the Star Ledger:

    Bayonne bank is second in N.J. to seek federal capital

    Pamrapo Bancorp of Bayonne has become the second healthy New Jersey bank to announce plans to participate in the federal government’s Troubled Assets Relief Program, according to a report on NJBiz.com.

    The report said the bank hopes to issue up to $11.4 million of preferred stock to the federal government if it is approved to participate in TARP’s capital purchase program. Last week, Wayne-based Valley National Bank announced that it was approved to sell $330 million in Valley nonvoting senior preferred stock to the United States Treasury under TARP.

  57. Yikes says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:24 am

    # reinvestor101 Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 7:43 am

    Please. If you love this country, you WILL NOT VOTE for “That One”. He has tried to steal this election and his associations are troublesome.

    why do i get the sense you’re angry? are you going to go out tonight after Barry wins, get in your pickup and look for trouble?

    i’ve told many people i know to get the Barry signs out of their frontyard … angry republicans are not going to be happy around 10 pm

  58. grim says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:25 am

    From Naked Capitalism:

    Fed Hires Bear Stearns Risk Chief…To Supervise Bank Soundness

    You cannot make this stuff up. From the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s web site:

    Michael Alix has been named a senior vice president in the Bank Supervision Group of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He will serve as a senior advisor to William L. Rutledge, executive vice president, Bank Supervision Group….

    Most recently, Mr. Alix worked for the Bear Stearns Companies, Inc., where he served as chief risk officer from 2006-2008 and global head of credit risk management from 1996-2006. His prior experience included eight years at Merrill Lynch & Company where he was a director, Asia chief credit officer and a vice president, head of North America financial institutions credit. He began his career with the Irving Trust Company where he served as an assistant vice president and lending officer.

    As John Carney of Clusterstock, who found this remarkable tidbit, noted:

    We suppose that Alix at least has plenty of experience with unsound banking institutions. He was the chief risk officer of Bear Stearns from 2006 until 2008. So, basically, he was the guy on the mast charged with yelling “iceberg” just before the Titantic introduced its bow to a floating hunk of ice.

  59. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:26 am

    clot, mike

    france and muslims, the same as us and mexicans w/ regard to cheap labor?????

  60. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:28 am

    vodka (59)-

    Except there’s no work in France.

  61. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:31 am

    grim (58)-

    Talk about f*^k up and move up…

  62. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:32 am

    [58],

    Hey, a new role for Alix. He can begin to learn the details of risk management. On the job training.

  63. HEHEHE says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:33 am

    I am voting for Mr O. Make my funk the O funk I want’s to get funked up. We are now a more than a Chocolate City we are now One Nation Under a Groove! The Empire was ended by Sir Devoid of Funk George W Bush. At least with Mr O we can dance on its grave.

  64. Mikeinwaiting says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:33 am

    Ket But they are rioting because they have no work. Heard the # a while ago about unemployment rate for young Muslim males. We have or should I say had work for Mexicans so we looked the other way. They don’t have a porous border,so they can control it.

  65. NJGator says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:33 am

    58 – America continues it’s grand tradition of failing forward.

  66. John says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:34 am

    Michael Alix is a nice guy. Got to talk to him three weeks ago. Big deal he got the job, good luck to him.

  67. grim says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:35 am

    From the AP:

    RBS writes down more assets, may post annual loss

    Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC said Tuesday it could suffer its first ever annual loss this year after it announced more writedowns on bad assets in the third quarter.

    RBS, one of three British banks relying on a multibillion pound government bailout, said that mounting bad loans in Britain, the United States and Asia had forced it to write down 206 million pounds ($325 million) worth of assets in the third quarter, on top of 5.9 billion pounds of writedowns in the first half of the year.

    Incoming Chief Executive Stephen Hester declined to forecast what the company’s 2008 full-year results would be during a conference call with journalists, but he warned that the “deteriorating economic environment” would negatively impact annual profits.

    When asked what he thought of analysts’ predictions that the bank would suffer an annual loss, he replied: “I’m not wildly disputing what you claim analysts are saying.”

  68. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:36 am

    SA:
    How Low Can This Market Go?

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/103860-how-low-can-this-market-go

    “As mentioned in April of 2007, “When the effects of inflation have been extracted, the DJIA is much more cyclical than Wall Street promoters would care to admit.”

    Steve Williams of Cycle Pro has updated his inflation-adjusted Dow Jones Industrial Average chart (below) which we previously cited. The recent sell off seems insignificant when viewed over the last 200 years. Our target is unchanged; we expect the market to swing to the lower end of the trend channel.”

  69. John says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:36 am

    Lots of slackards, fruit loops and left wingers at the poll lines in NY today, looks like a O landslide.

  70. jamil says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:37 am

    “Why does France keep the door open if they have no work for these folks? It would seem they don’t like or want them.”

    As kettle said, historical demons..Similarly to the UK, people from the former French colonies can move there easily.

    “France can barely sustain its native population”

    France threw the bums out who were responsible of the immigration mess. Sarkozy (former immigrant) took a hard line and got elected.. maybe someday in the US too.

  71. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:37 am

    Clott,

    I think that around the world, we will soon see a number of examples of how the progressive social liberalization and integration policies of the last 20-30 years does not end well if you do not account for underlying social issues.
    Just throwing a bunch of different ethnic groups together and telling them to play nice, without address fundamental social/political, differences/deficiencies does not turn out to be in anyones favor.

    I am all for the idea of open societies and all groups being treated equally, but just closing your eyes and hoping all will be well because you had good intentions doesn’t help.

    for an extreme example look at congo

  72. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:38 am

    John (66):

    “Michael Alix is a nice guy.”

    So is ‘W’.

  73. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:38 am

    John [66],

    Bear shareholders agree.

  74. tbw says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:38 am

    Ahh Hudson County.

  75. grim says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:39 am

    From LegalWeek:

    US firm McKee Nelson lays off 17 associates

    US firm McKee Nelson is laying off 13 associates in New York and four in Washington DC in response to the “unprecedented devastation” of the credit markets, reports the New York Law Journal.

    In a statement on Monday (3 November), the firm stressed the layoffs, which will reduce its lawyer headcount to 174, were not performance-based.

    “We have analyzed and created a projection of what we believe the structured finance business will look like over the next two years and what resources, capabilities and experience will be required to do that work,” the firm said. “These layoffs are a necessary part of the firm’s adjustment to this new reality.”

    Launched in 1999 as a law firm offshoot of accounting giant Ernst & Young, McKee Nelson has long focused primarily on tax and structured finance, with the latter speciality once accounting for 60% of the practice.

  76. Mikeinwaiting says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:39 am

    Yikes 57 You will see more problems in some cities with the victory celebrations.

  77. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:41 am

    mike,

    we should look at the social issues between muslims and the native french population and view it as a warning s to what could be in store for the US depending on how far down things go here.

    I have said before, that when things really get messy and people really start to hurt the mexicans will quickly become targets of americans ill will, scape goats. Especially in the south east and southwest

  78. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:41 am

    John (66)-

    Yeah, no big whoop.

    Like success in a previous job was ever a requirement to holding a high gubmint position.

  79. Jersey Girl says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:43 am

    Long lines started at 5:30 am in Hackensack. The chaos is causing unnecessarily long lines where normally there is no wait at all. It was nice, however, to see masses of people exercising their right to vote.

  80. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:43 am

    $44 kettle: I obviously missed something. What is O’s civil security force?

  81. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:43 am

    The real problem is that populations everywhere are too large.

    Time to throw a war.

  82. John says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:47 am

    Bear Employees were the biggest shareholders so they did it to themselves. The CRO in a mega ego driven IB that lets the BSDs run the show can only point out the risks Which he did. Same for CAE over there. They did their job, identified the risks and communicated the risks to the BOD AC and Sr. Mgt. and were overidden. Analysts and shareholders might have been better served by asking the CRO his opinion rather than dialing in on the investor relations earnings call.

  83. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:47 am

    #52 Clot: Many are the people and their descendants who fought for France during the Algerian independence war.

  84. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:47 am

    “Hudson Country Residents only”

    This also applies to Ocean county where the stench ofcorruption is just as strong only it is maked by the scent of all the pine trees mixing with salt air.

  85. John says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:48 am

    Surge Knight will be appointed to lead the civil security force.

    3b Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 8:43 am
    $44 kettle: I obviously missed something. What is O’s civil security force?

  86. grim says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:48 am

    If Wrigley announced they were stopping the production of chewing gum, someone here would be able to craft a rube-goldbergesque story spinning the news into a sign of the coming apocalypse.

  87. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:51 am

    Clott, 81

    yes.

    ——————————

    3b

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Df2p6867_pw

    Presidential frontrunner Barak O has called for a “civilian national security force” as powerful as the U.S. military,

    “We cannot continue to rely on our military in order to achieve the national security objectives we’ve set. We’ve got to have a civilian national security force that’s just as powerful, just as strong, just as well-funded,” Obama told a Colorado Springs audience earlier this month.

    If i have bad information then please correct me. I would rather haven fallen for false propaganda then be accurate on this point…..

  88. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:52 am

    #71 kettle:for an extreme example look at congo.

    A former Belgian colony, when the Europeans divided up Africa, they just drew lines on a map. After indepenednce it all blew up.

  89. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:53 am

    grim

    “If Wrigley announced they were stopping the production of bubble gum, someone here would be able to craft a story that would spin the news into a sign of the coming apocalypse.
    ”

    yep. i wouldnt touch that one though. However if it was a bubbilicious event then i might have to step in with prognostications.

  90. chicagofinance says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:53 am

    OT: I think I am less mature than Hunter. I was downstairs making a salad for lunch, and I grabbed a block of meunster, sliced it, and threw some cubes on top.

    Hunter said “….Papa….cut…the cheese…”

  91. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:55 am

    Clott, 81

    yes.

    ——————————

    3b

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Df2p6867_pw

    Presidential frontrunner Barak O has called for a “civilian national security force” as powerful as the U.S. military,

    “We cannot continue to rely on our military in order to achieve the national security objectives we’ve set. We’ve got to have a civilian national security force that’s just as powerful, just as strong, just as well-funded,” O told a Colorado Springs audience earlier this month.

    If i have bad information then please correct me. I would rather haven fallen for false propaganda then be accurate on this point…..

  92. Cindy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:55 am

    (86) Yeah! Grim – There’s nothing like a good laugh in the morning…

    The world isn’t coming to an end here in CA – Many Mexicans are my neighbors, co-workers and my friends.

  93. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:56 am

    3b, 89

    yes, i am aware of that, but will drop the issue as it is a messy and complex one.

  94. grim says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:58 am

    Presidential frontrunner Barak O has called for a “civilian national security force” as powerful as the U.S. military,

    By that he means that more Americans should own guns.

    I concur.

  95. chicagofinance says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:00 am

    Clotpoll Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 7:05 am
    Cindy (11)-

    And- after the house goes into foreclosure- then what? The mortgage market will be bereft of investors (since contracts can be breached at will) and borrowers (since confidence in financing markets will be shattered, and price discovery will be near-impossible in an environment of artificial valuation and double bust-outs on single properties).

    cindy & clot: there is only one answer…..

    BOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA BOYCOTT OPEN HOUSES!

  96. Cindy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:00 am

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/eonline/20081031/en_top_eo/66605

    Some news for Clot:

    “Winehouse checks out of hospital: Her drug dealers could be checking into jail.”

  98. chicagofinance says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:01 am

    Satish Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 7:19 am
    Hi Grim You saved me thousands of dollars and gave me peace of mind.
    Thank you Satish

    S-Man: hit the donate button on the home page

  99. jamil says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:02 am

    77 kettle: “I have said before, that when things really get messy and people really start to hurt the mexicans will quickly become targets of americans ill will, scape goats.”

    It is already the other way around..Every year, more Americans get killed by illegals than died in Iraq. Sanctuary policies have deadly consequences.

    I’m afraid that uncontrolled invasions (aka “immigration”) will destroy western nations in coming years. I have nothing against controlled immigration: Heck, I paid a lot of money, went through various consular interviews and background checks and got in but other people just arrive, live on welfare on public housing projects (see O’s aunt), vote several times and get free translation services and IRS refunds for filing fake tax returns (known scam, ie by claiming EITC and 10 kids).

    No country can survive this way. US is no exception.

  100. Cindy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:02 am

    (94) Chicago – Will do –
    Excellent suggestion – What sells here is dirt cheap.

  101. chicagofinance says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:06 am

    jamil Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 7:53 am
    I won’t make those hollywood idiot rants about moving to France or Canada if X is elected, but frankly, moving to France does not sound that bad next year: It is more conservative, it has lower taxes, more aggressive foreign policy and better food.
    Sad how things change..

    jam master jamil: Considering that there many wonderful things about France, it is still provocative to note just how ill-informed and idiotic your clearly troll-bating statement posted above is. France is a backwater filled with hubris. Kind of like Japan sans ambition.

  102. Mikeinwaiting says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:07 am

    Kettle 90 With powers over civil population.
    Hummmm,I smell a rat. The pentagon ain’t going to like this & neither do I. I trust our troops, but some type of quasi civil military force no way.

  103. tbw says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:08 am

    I fear that the election results may end in rioting and looting.

  104. jamil says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:08 am

    “Presidential frontrunner Barak O has called for a “civilian national security force” as powerful as the U.S. military,”

    that nasty living document called US constitution prevents military from operating in the US, but the new SS Waffen (I mean NCSF) has no such limitations. It will take care that you will not continue to be uninformed or you do not spread incorrect information. Naturally, it collects the weapons for people first.

    Seriously, if O launches this, shuts down the remaining few non-ultra liberal media outlets (“Fairness Doctrine”), raises taxes and jails political opponents (for “hate/thought crimes”) there will be armed resistance and rebellion. Election system is already corrupt to the core and not trusted, with all those dead people, illegals and O campaign activist openly voting multiple times in several states.

  105. chicagofinance says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:09 am

    AntiTrump Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 7:54 am
    Off Topic: Since gas is down to 2.50 in NJ, it’s time to buy that V8 monster truck again..

    I know the Stu-monster has the gas trump card in-the-hole somewhere in Union. On my watch, I have the Speedway across from Nicholas on NJ35 at $2.23.

  106. Cindy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:10 am

    If these folks in charge of the TARP funds REALLY wanted to help folks – They would be sending money to the bankrupt states who will only see their revenues decline further. Maybe they could put restrictions on the funds that forced expenditure cut backs – something.

    At my faculty senate meeting last night, we were told no raises FOR SURE – the state is coming back at us with mid-year cuts. They funded the COLA (have to pay it by law) at a deficit – whatever that means – Well, it means – we don’t get it.

  107. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:10 am

    #13 clot:So than what should a potential buyer do,and I mean that in all sincerity.

    How do I bid when I start the process after the holidays?

    Or maybe the betetr question is why should I even bother.

  108. chicagofinance says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:10 am

    Orion Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 7:59 am
    From UBS 3rd quarter report (Bloomberg):
    “The number of people employed at UBS was 79,565 on 30 September 2008, down by 1,887 compared with the end of second quarter 2008, with a reduction of 574 in the Investment Bank.”

    O: Do you remember when Pret-a-manger was arguing with Bost about hiring at Bear?

  109. grim says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:11 am

    I know the Stu-monster has the gas trump card in-the-hole somewhere in Union. On my watch, I have the Speedway across from Nicholas on NJ35 at $2.23.

    Costco in Clifton, $2.19 this past Sunday.

    Filled up and drove around aimlessly. Just because…

  110. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:11 am

    #101 mike: Agreed. Very troubling.

  111. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:12 am

    New Roubini out:

    The Rising Risk of a Hard Landing in China: The Two Engines of Global Growth – U.S. and China – are Now Stalling

    http://tinyurl.com/FranksCoffeeCart

    “For the last few months the first engine of global growth has effectively shut down as the latest batch of macro news from the U.S. are worse than awful: collapsing consumption and consumer confidence, plunging housing, collapsing auto sales, plunging durable goods spending (while supply side indicators such as production, ISM and employment are also free falling). The U.S. is entering its worst consumer recession in decades both supply and demand data look worse than in the severe recessions of 1974-75 and 1980-82. And in due time this tsunami of awful macro news, together with ugly downside surprises to earnings will take another toll on equity valuations that are now temporarily lifted by another bear market sucker’s rally.”

  112. jamil says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:15 am

    Well, this should make things easier for the One and ACORN.
    from instapundit:

    “WALL STREET JOURNAL: Milwaukee Puts a Vote-Fraud Cop Out of Business. “Last week Mike Sandvick, head of the Milwaukee Police Department’s five-man Special Investigative Unit, was told by superiors not to send anyone to polling places on Election Day. He was also told his unit — which wrote the book on how fraud could subvert the vote in his hometown — would be disbanded.””

  113. chicagofinance says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:15 am

    kettle1 Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 8:16 am
    ChiFi:
    The happy kettle report for the day:
    The financial and social choas that we are in the initial process of passing through will present a once in a century opportunity to change the direction of our social and economic institutions. We will not see the results,For better or for worse, for some time, but similar to the new deal era, we are mostly likely entering another “american revolution” as defined by Skeptic the other day. This opportunity is a good thing, how we use it is yet to be seen. “destruction breeds creation”

    k-man: so you got some last night from Mrs. K I assume….

  114. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:15 am

    What was it I heard, something like folks in some areas making calls to Democratic voters saying that because of the long lines, election officials had bifurcated the election and Rs vote today and Ds should come tomorrow. Egads. Oh yea, that and people with parkiing tickets, etc., were ineligible to vote. I can’t believe folks fall for this trash.

  115. Cindy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:15 am

    I love that the sun is now out when I drive to work – isn’t it cool…

  116. Sean says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:16 am

    re: “civilian national security force”

    Do I get to carry a sidearm?

  117. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:18 am

    Chifi (104):
    “I know the Stu-monster has the gas trump card in-the-hole somewhere in Union. On my watch, I have the Speedway across from Nicholas on NJ35 at $2.23.”

    Paid $2.19 to fill my 10 gallon Civic this morning. Cash price was $2.12. Of course my CC price ended up being $2.09. Total charge under $20. The best part is, I’ll get 375 miles for that $20 in a non-hybrid purchased 13 short years ago.

    In other news, had another CC shut down last night due to inactivity. This one was a Citibank Business Premier card I used for a 0% transfer for 18 months about 2 years ago.

    My super valuable Citi Platimum Amex still lives. But for how long though?

  118. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:18 am

    #116 sean: I have my Thompson.

  119. chicagofinance says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:18 am

    Clotpoll Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 8:31 am
    grim (58)- Talk about f*^k up and move up…

    I know nothing about that situation, but I assume that it was his predecessor that was the true a-hole, and further, he was not at liberty to reign in the cash cows anyway. His title was probably more “chief risk reporting clerk” and these guys figured he could be the fall guy when their detretus crapped out…..best laid plans…

  120. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:19 am

    “re: “civilian national security force””

    Wolverines!!!

  121. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:19 am

    cindy (95)-

    What will I do for entertainment now?

  122. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:20 am

    Jamil…Your desperation is supremely satisfying. Now don’t go causing any riots tonight…ya hear?

  123. grim says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:24 am

    Jamil…Your desperation is supremely satisfying. Now don’t go causing any riots tonight…ya hear?

    I don’t know who I’m more afraid of, the Republicans if Obama wins, or the Democrats if McCain wins.

    The tinder on both sides is dry, and damn it sure does feel hot today.

  124. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:24 am

    Jamil,

    Don’t worry so much about O-man’s skin color. Once he is briefed by Paulson, I expect him to turn all white.

  125. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:25 am

    How was voting in the Peoples’ Republic of Montclair this morning?

  126. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:25 am

    3b (106)-

    What’s your motive? Not to buy until the bottom?

    If so, we’re not at the bottom yet.

    If your priorities are otherwise, start looking around at the stuff that is getting priced realistically. There’s so little of it, that anything good with a reasonable price triggers bidding wars (not that this in any way signifies a healthy market).

    I got blown out of a 3-buyer bidding war on Saturday.

  128. Cindy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:26 am

    (120) Clot – Oh, Amy will find a way…

  129. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:26 am

    grim (122)-

    When did the practice of closing bars and liquor stores on Election Day stop?

    Seems like that would be a good thing to bring back…

  130. bi says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:26 am

    if any riots happen tonight, it will be more likely from o camp in the name of celebration or justice.

  132. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:31 am

    Bi:

    Unless O scores 60 points, there will not be any rioting. As said a week ago, this fear mongering is what I expected from a desperate Republican party who still thinks Jesus is the answer to our countries woes.

  134. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:33 am

    Now, the goal in Washington will be to prevent disaster before mid November 2010 and then to prevent disaster before mid November 2012.

    If O gets 330+ EC votes, the first 90 days will be a legislative whirlwind. The closer he gets to 400 the faster and sooner the bills will pass and move down the street for signature.

    He may not have $ to spend, but that does not mean he won’t and it does not mean that unfunded mandates will not be pushed onto the states and businesses.

    To paraphrase the movie, “You folks earning over $100k sure have pretty wallets. Get down and pay real good for my programs. Open up and pay real good now”

    Eeeeeeee. Eeeeeeeeeee. Eeeeeeeee. The new sound of patriotism?

  135. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:33 am

    Cindy:

    Good thing I lost my hair or I’d look just like Bin Laden’s son!

  136. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:34 am

    A word of caution on New Jersey’s Ballot Question #1…..this thing is so poorly worded that it is almost incomprehensible. Even the Interpretive Statement is botched.

    The criminals in Trenton should be shot for putting the question on the ballot….a “NO” vote seems in order here.

    “But with a “Yes” vote on Ballot Question #1, Governor Corzine and the State Legislature could pass a simple law to refinance every dollar of the $37 billion borrowed by state authorities WITHOUT voter approval! Then, every “unenforceable” contract to pay $3 billion a year will become enforceable for the first time-WITHOUT voter approval-for the next 30 years.”

  137. still_looking says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:35 am

    “As for me and mine, still looking for a viable expat destination.”

    Count us in, too, Clot…[packing our bags now…]

    sl

  138. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:35 am

    Cindy (130)-

    Why doesn’t the CIA do us all a favor, and just put a bullet in his head?

    The CIA’s #1 job should go back to being assassination and undermining our enemies.

  139. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:35 am

    chifi

    I got an excellent recommendation from a former NYS offical. SO i decided to pre-spend my stimulus 2 check

  140. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:35 am

    Shore (133): $ to spend was not a problem for W. He just decided to keep it off of his balance sheet. Sound familiar?

  141. bi says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:36 am

    131#, stu, don’t be too sensitive. this is more a social issue than a political one. i remember the night bull won the nba champion in eary 90’s.

    >Stu Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 9:31 am
    Bi:

    Unless O scores 60 points, there will not be any rioting. As said a week ago, this fear mongering is what I expected from a desperate Republican party who still thinks Jesus is the answer to our countries woes.

  142. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:37 am

    Clot (137):

    “Why doesn’t the CIA do us all a favor, and just put a bullet in his head?”

    Remind me never to don a wig.

  143. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:37 am

    #125 clot:What’s your motive? Not to buy until the bottom?

    Not the bootom, but say 10% from the bottom, plus I have to allow for all the uncertainity int he market, wasy form just declining prices (mtg mod’s).

    I still have not seen that yet in my area, still alot of fantasty asking prices, and still some selling (not alot) at what I consider to be over inflated prices.

    I cannot believe there are still bidding wars going on, seems amazing to me.

    How well priced was the house you spoke about that it started a 3 way bidding war? What year price level was it priced at?

  144. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:37 am

    fiddy (135)-

    None of that is an accident. The whole purpose is to dupe the public.

  145. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:39 am

    Bi (140): That was what I was referring to. What makes rioting less likely now is that if you riot tonight, you will be too tired to make McGriddles at 6:30am tomorrow morning.

  146. jojo says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:41 am

    What will the time frame be before we try to invade Iran???

    I’m thinking around 3-4 years

  147. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:41 am

    bi (140)-

    Why don’t you drop the veiled references and go straight to the “spearchuckers unable to control their impulses” stuff?

    If you’re gonna be a race baiter, you have to be more direct.

  148. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:41 am

    Whenever a “money” question comes up on the ballot…..we should automatically vote NOOOOOO.

  149. Mikeinwaiting says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:44 am

    Fiddy 135 I will have to reread that one. Thanks.

  150. toshiro_mifune says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:44 am

    Via Naked Capitalism NYC Commercial Real estate transactions fall 61%. Always a good sign.

    Purely anecdotal; I was pricing a treadmill for myself over the weekend. I run about 4 miles a day on weekdays and don’t feel like doing it outside anymore. Anyway, I stopped by the Sears in Middletown. I have never seen a store so empty. There were literally more employees than shoppers. The parking lot was so empty I thought the place was closed at first.
    If this is indicative of other Sears stores I don’t see how the chain will make it past this holiday season.
    Yeah, Sears is crappy and a depressing place to shop, but I’ve never seen a major department store that empty. There had to be all of 20 shoppers in the entire store at around 7 – 7:30 on a Friday…

    They were having a very good sale on treadmills though.

  151. bi says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:45 am

    146#, not rice baiting. just reasonable expectation drawn from historical data. you can verify it tomorrow morning just we did for mike morgan last weekend.

  152. Outofstater says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:45 am

    Just voted. 250 people ahead of me but we were seated in the theater of the middle school and the PTA was selling coffee and donuts so it was pretty painless.

  153. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:45 am

    3b (142)-

    It was very well priced. The agent dropped it into a logjam of tired inventory and undercut a bunch of mediocre stuff that had been sitting unsold by about 5-7%.

    It was priced ’04-ish, but my take-away isn’t so much the price. It’s that a smart seller with a quality house can get a much better price than you’d expect just by positioning the listing to blow away a block of stale competitors.

    Even in this rotten environment, there are still buyers who’ll pull the trigger, given any shred of value.

  154. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:47 am

    tosh [149],

    Let me know which one you decide on, and why.

    Thanks.

  155. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:48 am

    a little clarification….

    1. I have no personal issue with immigration. I do not discuss my personal views on the matter on this blog as that is to hot a topic. My statements are mere analysis.

    2. I do not think we face Armageddon. Every society goes thorough periods of financial and social turmoil. regardless of whether they weather the storm or fall, the world goes on for the average joe.

    My negative outlook on the current financial and social systems should not be construed as armageddon, but simply a critical critique of the system that we have built.

    Even if the USA ceased to exist tomorrow, life goes on

  156. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:49 am

    Factory orders come in at 10am. Consensus is for -.7%

  157. make money says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:50 am

    I got an excellent recommendation from a former NYS offical. SO i decided to pre-spend my stimulus 2 check

    Kettle,

    buy some shiny stuff or agriculture

  158. Nom Deplume says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:50 am

    46, gator

    ROFLMAO. Priceless.

    If I were drinking anything when I read those, it would be on the screen right now.

  159. Cindy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:50 am

    (134) So Stu – You’re pretty handsome – huh? Go Gator…

  160. bi says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:51 am

    at this point, i am not writing Mac off. even in nj, it could be a close race since i heard too many people were going to vote M. remember in nj, 30% of voters registered as independents.

  161. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:51 am

    “$ to spend was not a problem for W.”

    Please do not utter the name of that putz. His failure to veto spending bills allowed the boneheads in my party to run up such debt it may take a generation to fix the problem. I would certainly hope that the lefties will hold O to a higher standard and expect more from him than we have gotten from the current occupant of the Oval Office. Noon on Jan 20 can’t come quickly enough, even with an O victory.

  162. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:51 am

    #152 clot:Even in this rotten environment, there are still buyers who’ll pull the trigger, given any shred of value.

    I accept that, not sure if I understand it, but I do accept it.

    I would suppose there are still some (although small amount) of those type of buyers left in my area.

    I would expect that the continuing decline in the economy as in recession, will squeeze the remainder of those buyers out over the next 6 months.

  163. stan says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:51 am

    Vote location in the hoboken senior center was overwhelmed by the amount of people voting. I mean the people volunteering have to be in their 80’s. Line around the block, 2 hour wait…..good times, actually a very funny scene

  164. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:53 am

    bi (150)-

    “Drawn from historical data”…or cherry-picked to suit your purpose?

    Much like Morgan’s one week performance.

    Of course, one week to you is like a century, given that your attention span is shorter than the life of a fruit fly.

  166. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:55 am

    make,

    actually the guy who gave me the recommendation was a guy by the name of elliot.

    see chifi at post November 4th, 2008 at 9:15 am

  167. Cindy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:55 am

    (156) make – agriculture – Rogers said on Bloomberg yesterday that sugar was totally cheap (80% off of its highs I think he said.) He snagged a few sugar packets off of the set to “take home to his kids.”

  168. Nom Deplume says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:56 am

    On rioting, I believe I said months ago that police overtime would be high in cities like Atlanta, “Detriot”, LA, Newark, Camden, Phila., etc. Being a cop brat and attorney, and scholar of politics and history, I think that this was a rational conclusion. Whether it was racist to think that, well, you can call my online sock whatever you want (right, schab?)

    Check the news reports this morning about heavy police staffing in Atlanta, Detriot, Phila., L.A., etc.

    Whether it is racist to believe that there will be rioting if O loses, or riotous celebration if he wins, there are a lot of cops out there, and in cities run by black adminstrations. So what does that suggest? Right wing racism. That is a bit of a stretch to me.

  169. Cindy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:56 am

    Have a great day everyone!

  170. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:57 am

    “actually the guy who gave me the recommendation was a guy by the name of elliot.”

    Kettle,

    What did he say, donlt use a credit card and don’t cross state lines?

  171. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:59 am

    3b (161)-

    Just keep reminding yourself you’re in the vast minority.

    Also understand that there are more than a few buyers who believe an artifical floor will be placed under RE values, making right now the bottom. They don’t necessarily like it, but they will buy into it if they believe it strongly enough.

    Finally, keep in mind that a certain amount of buyers are looking for their “forever” home. Price concerns aren’t at the top of their list.

    The market never goes to 0.

  172. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:01 am

    Nom (167):

    To prepare for the possibility of riots is not racism. To say that you expect them is.

    “# tbw Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 9:08 am

    I fear that the election results may end in rioting and looting.”

    And remember. You can’t have ‘patRIOTism’ without a little ‘riot’ in the middle of it and Utopia begins with ‘U’.

  173. Sean says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:02 am

    I ran into an old girl friend at the polling place with my new wife. The look on both of their faces was priceless, made my day so far.

    Hopefully there won’t be any riots, it is time for a certain group to now grow up already, this ain’t the 60’s so no more excuses.

  174. grim says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:02 am

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. Sept. factory orders down 2.5% vs. 0.2% expected

    U.S. Sept. factory orders ex-transportation down record 3.7%

  175. make money says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:03 am

    Clot (170),

    it’s scary how much I agree with you these days.

  176. Nom Deplume says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:03 am

    [119] stu

    Loved that movie. Surprisingly, a very conservative friend of mine labeled it as an anti-conservative parody. Still trying to figure that one out.

    Still, just in case (and because I always wanted one), I bought my mini-14 a couple of months ago, and just ordered a stock of ammo since I expect a run on the stuff. The site someone recommended to me, http://www.ammoman.com, posted that this year was their best year ever in thier 26 year history. I suspect that they will bust that record before the day is out.

  177. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:03 am

    Stu (171)-

    The riots that are gonna get everybody’s attention are the ones that aren’t expected at all. And they won’t be started by “disaffected inner-city youth”.

    Those are the ones I expect to see in about 12-18 months.

  178. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:05 am

    September factory orders fell 2.5% month-over-month after dropping 4.3% in August. The results were worse than the 0.8% decline that was expected.

  179. Nom Deplume says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:06 am

    [171] Stu,

    I read yesterday that many on the left also expect riots, particularly if O loses. According to one report, the author Naomi Wolfe actually expects civil war to break out if O loses.

    Racism on the left???

  180. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:07 am

    In 12-18 months, there will be thousands of unemployed, PTSD-addled Iraq veterans spread all over the US.

    What happens when their expertise and paranoia gets mixed with some lower-middle-class rage?

  181. NJGator says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:07 am

    When are you rational conservatives here going to take back your party so the rest of us might have some options in who we can vote for?

  182. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:10 am

    Nom (178):

    Racism is alive and well in both parties. It is evident in conversations I’ve had with both of my parents. We can only hope that the younger generations will not be so jaded.

    I feel like Meathead!

  183. NJGator says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:12 am

    Gator is feeling under the weather and working from home today. Am watching the 10AM hour of The Today Show for the very first time and I’m more than slightly disturbed by the amount of plastic surgery that Kathie Lee Gifford has obviously had.

  184. jojo says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:15 am

    176—why do u predict these riots in 12-18 mths?

  185. RentinginNJ says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:15 am

    Lots of slackards, fruit loops and left wingers at the poll lines in NY today, looks like a O landslide.

    O is promising lots of free stuff for everyone. Who can say no to “free”?
    panem et circenses

  186. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:15 am

    Gator (180):

    As long as the Republicans continue to pander to the religious right, I will never pull the lever for them.

    Perhaps their strategy is a setup for the depression. Historically, when people are so down that they can’t find a job nor a bite to eat, they tend to find religion.

    Can’t wait to hear Howard Dean claim that abortion is murder and gay marriage is destroying America with a little bit of anti-immigration thrown in for good measure.

  187. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:17 am

    “When are you rational conservatives here going to take back your party so the rest of us might have some options in who we can vote for?”

    It is the reason I have not run screaming from the party, an attempt to take it back to something TR would recognize.

  188. jojo says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:18 am

    religion is what they want people to have so it can perpetuate their empire building….happy little soldiers aplenty

  189. Nom Deplume says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:18 am

    [171] stu,

    I guess you are discussing possibility versus probability. I find the suggestion that preparation for probability is racist while prepartion for possiblity is not to be counterintuitive and dangerous. Such thinking, if institutionalized, handcuffs law enforcement and demonizes rational thought and behavior. At what point does possiblity become probability, and at that point, do you have to engage in a new thought process to avoid being labeled “racist”?

    BTW, the guns are NOT loaded (or even unpacked) as I expect no possiblity (let alone probability) of riots in Brigadoon, and I still plan to go to work tomorrow in Newark. I feel that the likelihood of some disturbance somewhere in Newark is probable, but the likelihood of it actually affecting me is incredibly remote.

  190. John says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:19 am

    Stu Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 10:10 am
    But somehow age discrimination is ok. Federal law does not allow discrimination based on age, race or religion yet somehow the Dems can attack McCains age all the time yet he would never attack on race. Well since currently O does not have a religion he can’t get attacked on that and his race is off limits so he just pounds M on his age day and night. Funny M was in a POW camp longer than O was in the Senate. Guess that shows what little experince O has.

    Nom (178):

    Racism is alive and well in both parties. It is evident in conversations I’ve had with both of my parents. We can only hope that the younger generations will not be so jaded.

    I feel like Meathead!

  191. spam spam bacon spam says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:19 am

    grim, can u unmoderate me?

    pretty please?

  192. PeaceNow says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:21 am

    to all treadmill buyers:

    My ultra-long-distance running brother (last ‘race’ was 85 miles; has run in Boston for past 10 years) says treadmills are bad for your shins and ankles.

  193. John says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:22 am

    Actually that is not a claim, it is a fact. It is legal to do and if people choose to do it that is there right and choice. When a women married and is about to have her first baby they throw a baby shower. Everyone calls the unborn child what it is a baby. However, no one wants to abort a baby so if one chooses to abort the name of the baby becomes a Fetus. Now I am not taking a side here just pointing out sometimes you gotta call it what it is.

    Can’t wait to hear Howard Dean claim that abortion is murder

  194. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:22 am

    “The results were worse than the 0.8% decline that was expected.”

    Looks like 4x worse. Obviously it is time for the market to rise.

  195. Nom Deplume says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:25 am

    [184] Renting,

    Confirms my jibe on a friend’s blog that the dems have become the party of “hackers and slackers.” Guess they have perfected that “big tent” thing.

    As for conservatives taking back the GOP, it still boggles my mind that we don’t have a good third party alternative. I think POTP is that each nascent third party attracts a diverse group that cannot agree, so it bogs down. I don’t think it will happen until you get (1) dire socio-economic conditions and (2) a core group of respected, high profile individuals that support it and form the nucleus. Then it has to grow quickly and establish some mass such that it forms a viable “swing” party in Congress.

  196. To inflate is human to hyperinflate divine says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:27 am

    If a month ago someone made a comment regarding – The Sisters of Mercy at the Fillmore show. Went to see them last nite. Good show for the money & the venue..

    As someone that grew up in the bossom of Hudson County politics. If O is like the good Chicago politician he should be. I expect him to keep quiet until 1/20/09 and then come out swinging hard & tuff. I expect him, and essentially has to bash many many heads – Make clear who’s your daddy..

    Head to be bashed in….
    -Health Insurance Industry & For profit hospital. (expect Medicare as defacto national insurance, & many pre-Reagan for profit restrictions to be reinstated)
    -Banking & Wall Street (expect direct nationalization with shareholder wipe out & restrictions on Credit cards, mortgages, & student loans)
    -Bad boys perp walk (Mozillo & many other
    executive elites going for the perp walk)
    -Oil&Energy (massive top down got to do this, with plenty of carrots for refineries & oil drilling deal with Cuba)
    -Auto&transportation (You will be saved but stings attached)

    I would dare say that apart form the usual suspects of industry lobbies – the average person is not going to complain, as they already feel there is a target on their back.

  197. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:37 am

    #172 clot:Also understand that there are more than a few buyers who believe an artifical floor will be placed under RE values, making right now the bottom. They don’t necessarily like it, but they will buy into it if they believe it strongly enough.

    That is what as you know I am concerned with. And even if there is a so called called artificial floor placed under RE values, what happens when the floor collapses?

    I guess for my purposes I will have to figure out the absolute most I will pay, bid accordingly, and hope it works, and or continue to rent. I would really like to wrap this up next year.

    I still believe that after all we have witnessed this year, the impact to real estate should be and I continue to believe will be much more dramatic,as we move into 2009.

    In the past house prices used to fall during a recession; I cannot believe that has changed especially since this one looks like it will rival the early 80’s

  198. skep-tic says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:40 am

    apologies if already discussed… thought this was an interesting data point (from today’s WSJ):

    “Auto makers sold 838,186 cars and light trucks last month, according to a tally by Autodata Corp. General Motors Corp. said it was the worst October in 25 years. When adjusted for increases in the U.S. population, last month was “the worst month in the post-World War II era,” Michael DiGiovanni, GM’s top sales analyst, said in a conference call. “This is clearly a severe, severe recession.””

  199. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:45 am

    skep [200],

    Plunged off a cliff. A total disaster. Detroit is dead.

  200. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:45 am

    Nom, John,

    You make good points and I think the McCane age thing wouldn’t be so prominent if he had not chosen SP. As we discussed about the ramifications of credit card companies reducing credit to people in their 80s, voters too have the right to ensure that the person they elect will likely last for the next four years. I’m not voting for Lautenberg as his age is one of my major reasons. Regardless of what the hardliner Reps say, in two years McCane’s wikipedia entry will blame his loss on his choice of SP. If McCane was 10 years younger and not susceptible to cancer, this choice would not have made that much of a difference.

  201. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:45 am

    Skep,

    All the more reason for the market rise today. Let’s just redefine bad news as good and enjoy the ride ever higher.

  202. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:48 am

    Shore Guy, Skep, Clot:

    “Let’s just redefine bad news as good and enjoy the ride ever higher.”

    I am enjoying the ride and glad I’m not short on it. It’s beginning to look like another risk adverse opportunity to me.

  203. JF says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:51 am

    With regards to ballot question 1, wouldn’t a yes vote require voter approval for the State to borrow and a no vote would not require voter approval?

    Fiddy, I agree with you that the semantics on these questions are unacceptable.

    Fiddy Cents on the Dollar Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 9:34 am
    A word of caution on New Jersey’s Ballot Question #1…..this thing is so poorly worded that it is almost incomprehensible. Even the Interpretive Statement is botched.

    The criminals in Trenton should be shot for putting the question on the ballot….a “NO” vote seems in order here.

    “But with a “Yes” vote on Ballot Question #1, Governor Corzine and the State Legislature could pass a simple law to refinance every dollar of the $37 billion borrowed by state authorities WITHOUT voter approval! Then, every “unenforceable” contract to pay $3 billion a year will become enforceable for the first time-WITHOUT voter approval-for the next 30 years.”

  204. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:53 am

    #200 skeptic:This is clearly a severe, severe recession.””

    Yet, and with today’s dismal factory orders#, the market rises??

  205. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:55 am

    “Yet, and with today’s dismal factory orders#, the market rises??”

    3b,

    Don’t confuse the economy with the stock market.

  206. Sean says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:57 am

    There is some spin on those ballot questions.

    http://www.northjersey.com/news/njpolitics/33709899.html

    The Dems are going to go on a hog wild spending trip over the next few years, whether we approve or not.

  207. make money says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:59 am

    Pelosi, Dodd and Barney Frank wil pass anything they want in both houses and Obama will sign everything that hits his desk.

    It’s gonna make W spending look like a walk in the park.

    Jim Rogers called this an inflationary holocaust.

  208. make money says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:00 am

    Pelosi, Dodd and Barney Frank wil pass anything they want in both houses and O will sign everything that hits his desk.

    It’s gonna make W spending look like a walk in the park.

    Jim Rogers called this an inflationary holocaust.

  209. NJGator says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:00 am

    Hoax Email Tells Virginia Students To Vote Tomorrow
    By Zachary Roth – November 4, 2008, 10:23AM

    Hackers broke into the email account of the George Mason University provost in Virginia, early this morning and sent out the following email:

    http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/11/hoax_email.php
    Please note that election day has been moved to November 5th. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause you.

    Peter N. Stearns
    Provost

    According to Dan Walsh, a spokesman for the university, the hoax message went to the entire student body — more than 30,000 students — and about 5000 faculty and staff.

    Stearns himself quickly sent out a followup message assuring recipients that it was a hoax, which was being investigated.

    Walsh said the university had contacted campus police, who are working with outside law enforcement to look into the hoax.

  210. NJGator says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:03 am

    First Results: Ob*ma Takes Dixville Notch Away From The GOP
    By Eric Kleefeld – November 4, 2008, 12:23AM

    The first results are in for the 2008 general election, with the small village of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire again performing its tradition of having everyone turn out to vote at midnight and then immediately reporting the results.

    And the count is a real shocker, as just read on CNN: Ob*ma 15 votes, McC*in six votes — in a place that has only voted Democratic once in the 50 years they’ve been doing this tradition.

    The results here aren’t really predictive of anything, either for New Hampshire or the country — Lyndon Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1968, Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, plus John Kerry in 2004 all carried the state even as they lost here, and Ob*ma carried it in the Democratic primary that he went on to lose. But the news that Ob*ma picked up a well-known rural Republican stronghold is certainly not discouraging.

    http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/11/first_results_ob*ma_takes_dixv.php

  211. reinvestor101 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:04 am

    Damn right I’m angry. You liberals are going to ruin this country after stealing the damn election. YES, I’M MAD AS HELL AND I DON’T UNDERSTAND WHY WE’RE IN THIS POSITION.

    Tell you what, this fight ain’t over. “That One” will face problems with pushing forth his agenda. He will be challenged every step of the way. He WILL NOT take my money and give it away to the 40% of people who don’t pay taxes without a fight. Liberal.

    Yikes Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 8:24 am

    why do i get the sense you’re angry? are you going to go out tonight after Barry wins, get in your pickup and look for trouble?

    i’ve told many people i know to get the Barry signs out of their frontyard … angry republicans are not going to be happy around 10 pm

  212. grim says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:05 am

    Walsh said the university had contacted campus police, who are working with outside law enforcement to look into the hoax.

    In reality, the Provost was sending it out as a joke to a few friends, he didn’t realize that he had inadvertently included a BCC to “Everyone”.

    Nothing is funnier than when the CEO sends out a poorly worded rant to “All Employees – North America” on accident.

  213. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:06 am

    make [209],

    There is/will be a printing explosion. Enjoy the ride.

  214. NJGator says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:08 am

    214 Grim – We had a former division president who did not know how to use email. An email was sent to everyone in our building stating that the bathrooms would be unavailable over one weekend due to renovation. This exec then responded back to the office services employee who wrote the email, as well as the entire company stating “Does this include the XXX employees? They should be part of every corporate initiative. AND. THIS. IS. DEFINITELY. ONE!!!”

    He was fired a few weeks later.

  215. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:09 am

    Check out gold and other commodities.

  216. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:09 am

    #207 BC Bob: Oh I understand, but the amrket these last few days appears to be divorced from reality.

    At best it shoudl be flat,IMO, not rising.

  217. Sean says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:10 am

    re #209 – make money

    Every House Democrat voted for Pelosi as Speaker. At the time, Pelosi’s staff worked hard to ensure that there would not be any Democratic defectors. Don’t expect any dissension in the rank for the next 4 years.

    Welcome to the USSA Comrade!

  218. jojo says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:12 am

    I don’t understand why some posters say they are stockpiling ammo—-ever seen a tank roll over a house???? Bullets kinda bounce off tanks…just ask David Koresh

  219. AP says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:14 am

    I agree with pervious poster. Sucks that we don’t have a good third party candidate or a third party for that matter.

    This election is a debate between the Haves and the Haves not. Obama appeals to 95 percent of the public. If you care about you wallet and you make $250k or less assuming race and experience do not matter to you, you are likely to vote for him.

    Buts lets not forget that there are many checks and balances in government and each candidate is running a platform much like your high school student council president who may have gotten elected on no homework on Fridays platform.

    Reality is that both candidates are making promises they may not be able to deliver.

    Vote to show your support on the issues because change is slow. Vote so that you might affect you local elections/leaders.

    If you don’t vote, you have no right to complain.

  220. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:14 am

    “At best it shoudl be flat,IMO, not rising.”

    3b,

    After the crash in 1929, the market rose almost 50%, April 1930. How did the next 5 years perform?

    Don’t confuse technical rebalancing with economic fundamentals.

  221. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:15 am

    #220 BC Bob: I know, I am just cranky today.

  222. jamil says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:22 am

    Shore:
    “Please do not utter the name of that putz. His failure to veto spending bills ”

    I hated this too..But to be fair: There is no line-item veto (thank you very much Supreme Court) and vetoing otherwise crucial bills (e.g. funding for the troops, or energy bill finally allowing nuclear energy) is often impossible. I think W deserves more blame for the prescription drug bill (that was blatant attempt to out-democrat dems by buying the votes from seniors).

  224. SG says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:25 am

    Good article,

    The Great American Housing Market Nightmare Next Phase

    Martin Weiss writes: One of the greatest blunders of our time is made by those who blindly assume home prices are so low they couldn’t possibly go any lower.

    In reality, home prices don’t stop going down at some particular level that appears to be “cheap.” Nor do they stop falling because they match some historical price that was previously a low.

  225. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:27 am

    “#220 BC Bob: I know, I am just cranky today.”

    3b,

    Just imagine how cranky would you be if you were trying to sell an overpriced pos with Turkey day quickly approaching?

  226. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:27 am

    jojo,

    expand your imagination my firend. if tank is infront of your house its already to late…..

    On the other had, anyone notice how good the iraqi insurgents got at disabling US M1A1 tanks????

    Its not that hard if the tanks dont take
    certain precautions.
    —————————–

    Spam 188

    I will take a wait and see, but any very wary of such moves given the confluence of current events ( polarization of politics, financial crisis, historical precedents, current patriot act shenanigans etc.)

  227. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:28 am

    Stu [223],

    Bingo.

  228. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:29 am

    “expand your imagination my firend. if tank is infront of your house its already to late…..”

    kettle,

    LMAO.

  229. ben says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:29 am

    jojo, sure, ammo is pretty useless against tanks. But it’s extremely useful to thugs that would try to mug you on the street. In my neighborhood, people get already get mugged. There will be a lot more in the coming years.

  230. RentinginNJ says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:30 am

    As long as the Republicans continue to pander to the religious right, I will never pull the lever for them.

    The Republicans are in a very tough position.
    In one wing, you have the fiscally conservative libertarian wing of the party, who believe in small government and government off my back (this is where I am).

    In another wing, you have the social conservatives, who believe in legislating morality and don’t mind a big heavy handed government as long as its executing their social agenda.

    I don’t know how these wings will ever come together and without both in the same camp, it will be difficult to win presidential elections.

  231. rhymingrealtor says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:31 am

    “i’ve told many people i know to get the Barry signs out of their frontyard … angry republicans are not going to be happy around 10 pm”

    What I’ve noticed this election season is the absence of lawn signs. I believe the absence is due to the nature of the opposistion. It is viral.

    KL

  232. All Hype says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:34 am

    Damn right I’m angry. You liberals are going to ruin this country after stealing the damn election. YES, I’M MAD AS HELL AND I DON’T UNDERSTAND WHY WE’RE IN THIS POSITION.

    Tell you what, this fight ain’t over. “That One” will face problems with pushing forth his agenda. He will be challenged every step of the way. He WILL NOT take my money and give it away to the 40% of people who don’t pay taxes without a fight. Liberal.
    ________________________________________________

    You will not have a choice if the terrorists get 60 seats in the Senate. You may need to leave the USA for a few years.

    Consider your wallet open for Barry to steal money at will.

  233. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:36 am

    “What I’ve noticed this election season is the absence of lawn signs. I believe the absence is due to the nature of the opposistion. It is viral.”

    Drive through Montclair. My favorite sign is the ‘Sarah!’ someone has put literally attached to their front porch on a huge property in Glen Ridge on Ridgewood Avenue. It is half hidden by a hedge as well ;)

  234. Sean says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:38 am

    The Dems are going to go Hog Wild, all kinds of crazy spending programs. Snapping up some cheap land in Big Sky country for a wind farms, and loading up on Uranium futures is now a once in a lifetime chance.

    Don’t waste it folks.

  235. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:39 am

    re ammo

    if the SHTF, then the second most fungible asset behind precious metals will be ammo. A box of 5.56 might get you a few days worth of food.

  236. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:39 am

    “Consider your wallet open for Barry to steal money at will.”

    All Hype, stop being such a moron! Look at how much W has already pledged to take from your wallet.

    http://bp3.blogger.com/_odwu_bJENb8/SC5Ju6LYXOI/AAAAAAAAAsg/t2C58mB7kNI/s1600-h/Current+Account+Deficit.jpg

  237. grim says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:42 am

    Just imagine how cranky would you be if you were trying to sell an overpriced pos with Turkey day quickly approaching?

    Darn BC, I nearly forgot it was so quickly approaching.

    Market closed, come back next year.

  238. jmacdaddio says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:44 am

    Before the financial mess, the election was close. Obama’s poll numbers started going up when older independent voters starting watching their 401(k) plans go up in smoke, their kids become unable to get affordable student loans, the small dealer where they purchased a GM vehicle go under after 50+ years, and their employer sending out pink slips left and right. I tried telling die-hard Republican family and friends this, but they’re still into security and stopping the terrorists (so 2004).

  239. yome says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:44 am

    #88Presidential frontrunner Barak O has called for a “civilian national security force” as powerful as the U.S. military,

    Integrated National Police?That might not be a bad idea.Too much beaurocracy.

  240. jmacdaddio says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:45 am

    Before the financial mess, the election was close. Democratic poll numbers started going up when older independent voters starting watching their 401(k) plans go up in smoke, their kids become unable to get affordable student loans, the small dealer where they purchased a GM vehicle go under after 50+ years, and their employer sending out pink slips left and right. I tried telling die-hard Republican family and friends this, but they’re still into security and stopping the terrorists (so 2004).

  241. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:45 am

    I can’t wait for this election to be over so the ignoramus lies can cease for a minimum of 4 years.

  242. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:48 am

    Sean (234):

    “and loading up on Uranium futures is now a once in a lifetime chance.”

    Forget the Uranium futures. Make sure you purchase some physical and put it in a safe place, never to far from your sight. This stuff is gonna be valuable I tell ya!

  243. grim says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:49 am

    Stu,

    I just want my blog back.

  244. reinvestor101 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:49 am

    Grim.

    241 is in moderation. I refuse to use “That One’s” name, so I don’t know what triggered the filter.

  245. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:50 am

    Grim, please leave 241 in moderation :P

  246. reinvestor101 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:50 am

    What lies are you referring to? There have been tons of lies coming from the leftist/terrorist camp.

    Stu Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 11:45 am
    I can’t wait for this election to be over so the ignoramus lies can cease for a minimum of 4 years.

  247. toshiro_mifune says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:51 am

    Peace Now – says treadmills are bad for your shins and ankles
    That’s the first time I’ve heard that. Surely the cold is also bad for parts of me I’m rather of. I’ll take it under advisement though.

    Is anyone here familiar with or actually own a kayak (preferably fresh water for now)? It looks like fun and I have space for one. I’m looking for suggestions and anything would be appreciated.

  248. Victorian says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:51 am

    Grim: In mod at 241, no clue why – no mention of either O or M!!

  249. reinvestor101 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:52 am

    I know you leftists want to censor everyone but I’m surprised that they got to someone so young.

    Stu Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 11:50 am
    Grim, please leave 241 in moderation :P

  250. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:52 am

    “Market closed, come back next year.”

    JB,

    Can you imagine the conversations at the table this year? Harry, when we selling this albatross? I need to start X-Mas shopping for Ruben and Maj. The banks cancelled our cc’s and our hel is tapped. Harry? Shut off that damn game.

  251. NJGator says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:53 am

    This is an election thread. If your post does not include O or M, it must go straight into moderation.

  252. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:54 am

    “This stuff is gonna be valuable I tell ya!”

    Stu,

    Not according to Jamil. Only clowns would own it.

  253. All Hype says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:56 am

    Stu Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 11:39 am
    “Consider your wallet open for Barry to steal money at will.”

    All Hype, stop being such a moron! Look at how much W has already pledged to take from your wallet.
    _______________________________________________

    My friend, you gotta chill, I was joking with the guy.

  254. jamil says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:56 am

    I’m afraid that we’ll go the route of Venezuela, Russia, Zimbabwe, Argentina and other dictatorships led by a charismatic populist. People can vote him to power, but they have never again chance to oust him peacefully: The rules are changed so that elections are mere formality.

    In the US, the rules and laws will be fine-tuned: tens of millions of illegals get to vote next time (several times, as they can get multiple IDs). No state can require photo ID ever again (thus allowing the state/acorn to run double-votes as needed) and no voter fraud investigation is allowed. On the other hand, voter intimidation (as defined by the Civilian National Force or Acorn) carries out minimum 10 years sentence (e.g. reminding people that only living US citizens can vote is a “voter intimidation”). Naturally, opposition-friendly media has been shut down so communication is controlled by the state.

    Chuck Schumer was on Fox News an hour ago openly stating that conservative opinions should not be allowed on media. Yesterday, Senator Menendez was saying the same, threating Cavuto that he will be shut down soon. Just remember: First they came for the republicans..

  255. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:57 am

    Anybody discussing O or M must hit the donation button first.

  256. reinvestor101 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:58 am

    You know, you’re the joke.

    There’s generally nothing lower that a liberal, except you.

    All Hype Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 11:56 am
    Stu Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 11:39 am
    “Consider your wallet open for Barry to steal money at will.”

    All Hype, stop being such a moron! Look at how much W has already pledged to take from your wallet.
    _______________________________________________

    My friend, you gotta chill, I was joking with the guy.

  257. skep-tic says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:58 am

    small government conservatives have been a minority interest group ever since the new deal. indeed, one of the main purposes behind social security was to get every american a stake in big government. small gov’t conservatives are even more f’d now because the social conservatives are finally prioritizing their economic interests above cultural interests. unless the dems screw up massively, we may never be able to elect a small gov’t president (or majority in congress) ever again. a majority of the american public is soon to be on the teat for life, paying zero in fed income taxes. they have no interest in curtailing spending and it is a winning political strategy for the dems to increase the numbers of this group going forward. if the dems are smart they will stay as far away from cultural issues as possible and just pound these populist economic issues hard for the next 2 yrs.

  258. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:59 am

    “I’m afraid that we’ll go the route of Venezuela, Russia, Zimbabwe, Argentina and other dictatorships led by a charismatic populist.”

    Jamil,

    Then you are a fool/clown if you don’t own the yellow metal.

  259. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:59 am

    All Hype: Sorry I missed it. At the same time, please don’t take anything I say here seriously. I love you all. Kumbaya!

  260. grim says:
    November 4, 2008 at 12:00 pm

    Anybody discussing O or M must hit the donation button first.

    BC,

    Rare that I see anything in the tip jar anymore, must be the recession.

  261. All Hype says:
    November 4, 2008 at 12:00 pm

    reinvestor101 Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 11:58 am
    You know, you’re the joke.

    There’s generally nothing lower that a liberal, except you.
    ________________________________________________

    How many times do I need to tell you that I am not a liberal. Why don’t you listen???

  262. jamil says:
    November 4, 2008 at 12:00 pm

    251 bob: “Not according to Jamil. Only clowns would own it.”

    I never said there is anything wrong with owning gold (or buying it in 2003) or other commodities. What I said, was that advocating gold in the hysteric environment in the last 2 years, when it was on all time high, was idiotic and irresponsible. Think of “David Learah of Gold”. Similarly, owning a house is fine, but advocating people to buy houses since “they don’t make any more land” in 2006 was moronic.

    It is ironic that people who correctly saw the unsustainable housing bubble failed to see identical bubble elsewhere.

  263. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 12:01 pm

    “Rare that I see anything in the tip jar anymore, must be the recession.”

    JB,

    Hate to repeat myself. A prime blog supported by subprime bloggers.

  264. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 12:02 pm

    ReInvestor50.5:

    I value you words about as highly as a value a hemorrhoid. Actually, let me rescind that. A hemorrhoid is less painful than trying to make sense of your gibberish.

  265. chicagofinance says:
    November 4, 2008 at 12:04 pm

    New Jersey

    Public Question 1 would expand a current requirement that state bonds require voter approval to bonds issued by state governmental authorities.

    A trend in many states is to shift government spending to these authorities and thereby escape many taxpayer protection requirements.

    In New Jersey today, there are $25.2 billion in bonds outstanding from authorities as opposed to $2.8 billion outstanding from the state and approved by voters. Proponents say the extension furthers the existing requirement’s goals; opponents say that the requirement would make it more difficult to address funding needs and that it would be difficult to present these complicated appropriation questions to voters effectively.

  266. skep-tic says:
    November 4, 2008 at 12:05 pm

    #251

    “Is anyone here familiar with or actually own a kayak (preferably fresh water for now)? It looks like fun and I have space for one. I’m looking for suggestions and anything would be appreciated.”

    I’ve done a decent amount of sea kayaking. I don’t own one myself, but my parents do and I often go out when I go to visit them.

    Fresh water kayaks can be had much more cheaply than ocean kayaks. What are you planning on doing in it (just messing around, long trips, white water, fishing)? I would look on craigslist if you’re looking to buy. kayaks come up there often

  267. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 12:07 pm

    Jamil [266],

    That’s your view, a bubble in gold. I disagree, view it as a retracement. In the 70’s, during the midpoint of its move, it retraxced 40%, eventually went to its high in 1979. Currently, we have retraced approx 35%, peak/trough.

    Watch the next 5 years. You ain’t seen nuttin yet.

  268. reinvestor101 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 12:08 pm

    Let me tell you something, I don’t listen because there ain’t nothing to “hear” on this damn blog. Until technology advances where I can leave a damn sound file to tell you what the hell I think of you, Mr. Hard Head, then I’ll have to resign myself to reading your drivel.

    There’s not been a liberal/terrorist position that you’ve failed to embrace here and I find it interesting that you now want to run from those positions. The only thing I can figure is that someone in authority over you has determined your liberal/terrorist leanings and has properly decided to exact some penalty. Don’t be a wuss and start running from your ideology.

    All Hype Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
    reinvestor101 Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 11:58 am
    You know, you’re the joke.

    There’s generally nothing lower that a liberal, except you.
    ________________________________________________

    How many times do I need to tell you that I am not a liberal. Why don’t you listen???

  269. make money says:
    November 4, 2008 at 12:10 pm

    Is anyone here familiar with or actually own a kayak (preferably fresh water for now)? It looks like fun and I have space for one. I’m looking for suggestions and anything would be appreciated.

    Don’t tell me you gonna commute in Kayak? I heard silly bicycle stories here before but this one tops it.

  270. jamil says:
    November 4, 2008 at 12:11 pm

    anyway, interesting to see what happens to the MA state initiative of getting rid of the state income tax. Last time it got 45% of votes, now they have a real chance. Now that’s the change I can believe in.

    Funny to think of the tax paradises of France and Massachusetts in 2009-2012..

  271. Al says:
    November 4, 2008 at 12:20 pm

    jojo Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 11:12 am
    I don’t understand why some posters say they are stockpiling ammo—-ever seen a tank roll over a house???? Bullets kinda bounce off tanks…just ask David Koresh

    Tanks require infrastructure, skilled (believe it or not) driver to drive it so it doesn’t get stuck, espetially in urban enviroment – did you ever see what it takes to get tank out of the too steep grade ditch?? And streets are laced with all kind of sewers, ditches, septic tanks and such.

    and in addition – A LOT OF GASOLINE.

    Gun with bullets need only one person.

  272. jamil says:
    November 4, 2008 at 12:20 pm

    271 bob: “. I disagree, view it as a retracement. ..Watch the next 5 years. ”

    Who knows..Maybe it is different this time. Besides, they don’t make any more gold and everybody wants to own gold.

    Seriously, historically, gold has been a lousy investment, similar to houses. It is risky (at least if you bought it at all-time high prices).

    Also, government can confiscate it (otoh, they can soon confiscate anything) and storing it in your house is risky too. Basically, you are a market-timer and you are gambling with this (if you have large portion of your assets in gold).
    I suppose you had pets.com stocks too, back in the 1990s..

  273. Sean says:
    November 4, 2008 at 12:21 pm

    re#273 silly bicycle stories

    Make – The $700 Billion housing Bailout Bill included a $20-a-month, tax-free reimbursement starting in january to employees for bicycle-related expenses. In return, employers will be able to deduct the expense from their federal taxes.

    I am definetly asking for that $20 from my employer since it will be the only handout I am getting. I can use that $20 to buy myself a nice bottle of spirits to get over the pain of the drubbing my wallet will be getting from the massive local tax increases I am seeing this year.

  274. NJGator says:
    November 4, 2008 at 12:22 pm

    Gators hair stylist says they are not feeling the effects of the recession at the salon. She says that people who are out of work are coming in regularly to keep up their best appearance for job interviews.

  275. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 12:28 pm

    #227 BC Bob: So true.Keep things in perspective.

  276. toshiro_mifune says:
    November 4, 2008 at 12:29 pm

    Thanks skep. I was just looking to fool around a bit. They look like fun and there are a lot of creeks and small streams through the Pine Barrens that could be interesting.

    I’ll definitely have to check craigslist. Hadn’t thought used.

  277. John says:
    November 4, 2008 at 12:31 pm

    I already miss the credit crisis and the stock market crash. Will be good stories to tell one day. Now is a good time to buy an SUV I guess they are still cheap. Hoping that he trade up houses with sky high RE taxes and mortgage payments owners give up before RE revives from the dead. Any greed kids with an estate sale can rent Mom’s no mortgage low tax house and wait it out, but someone with a 800K mortgage and 15K taxes can’t rent it out without losing and without a job that monthly nut will kill him.

  278. Rich In NNJ says:
    November 4, 2008 at 12:34 pm

    I never get in to political discussions on this board but find Clotpoll’s statement at post 130 an outrage!

    Rich

  280. All Hype says:
    November 4, 2008 at 12:58 pm

    reinvestor101 Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
    Let me tell you something, I don’t listen because there ain’t nothing to “hear” on this damn blog. Until technology advances where I can leave a damn sound file to tell you what the hell I think of you, Mr. Hard Head, then I’ll have to resign myself to reading your drivel.

    There’s not been a liberal/terrorist position that you’ve failed to embrace here and I find it interesting that you now want to run from those positions. The only thing I can figure is that someone in authority over you has determined your liberal/terrorist leanings and has properly decided to exact some penalty. Don’t be a wuss and start running from your ideology.
    _________________________________________________

    I am glad to know you know so much about me and my terrorist/liberal positions. Too bad it’s all wrong.

    So when you gonna meet the gang at the next GTG? It would be a good time for all of us to meet and have a drink and call it even. C’mon, whatta say?

  281. painhrtz says:
    November 4, 2008 at 12:59 pm

    Tosh – any ten foot sit-in would be perfect for the creeks in the pine barrens and not terribly painful on your wallet. I fished in the ocean using a kayak for years but got tired of being a target for pleasure boaters. Also, paddled the pine barrens frequently in a small yak when I went to school in south jersey much fun.

  282. RentinginNJ says:
    November 4, 2008 at 12:59 pm

    The Dems are going to go Hog Wild, all kinds of crazy spending programs. ….loading up on Uranium futures is now a once in a lifetime chance.

    Agree with the first part, but not so sure I’d put my money into U futures. I don’t see the Dems supporting nuclear. They won’t necessarily come out against it, but they punt on the issue by studying it to death.

  283. painhrtz says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:01 pm

    All-Hype I not going to any GTG your at, working with you for three years was bad enough.
    ;)

    FYI All hype is definitely not a lib

  284. RentinginNJ says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:06 pm

    Not sure what to make of this….

    Americans for Prosperity Urges a NO vote on Ballot Question One

    http://www.americansforprosperity.org/index.php?id=6656&state=nj

  285. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:06 pm

    Continental said it expects domestic revenue per available seat mile to rise by 4% to 6% in November, compared to recent guidance of low-to-mid teens.

    Perhaps they shouldn’t have started to charge $15 for your first checked bag?

  286. DL says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:07 pm

    Issues don’t matter. Perception is everything and I think Peggy Noonan had it right; America will vote for youth over experience and is willing to give a newcomer the benefit of the doubt. In Germany the saying is it’s better to chose the devil you know over the devil you don’t know; in the U.S. its the reverse. Whoever wins, it is a terrible time to be President. Our political class is about to learn a lesson in the limits of government and command economies. So just as the media annointed winner didn’t have to prove anything to win, nothing he does will merit a second term.

  287. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:07 pm

    #280 John: and wait it out.

    Wait what out the price dcline? So only high priced houses will decline, but lower priced houses will not because everybody will rent them out, and wait it out.

    I guess if they do not mind waiting 10 years like last time, you could be right. I would think most would want the cash (however much it is), now.

  288. Outofstater says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:07 pm

    #195 Totally with ya, John.

  289. still_looking says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:08 pm

    painhrtz, fine, stay home… let the rest of us hang out with my favorite All-Hype…

    …definitely miss my lil brother! :-)

    and yes…. he is def NOT a lib!!

    sl

  290. HEHEHE says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:13 pm

    Jamil,

    Gold had never hit it’s inflation adjusted high….yet. In order to do that it would have to be $2000 and ounce which it hasn’t been anywhere close to being.

  291. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:16 pm

    “There is no line-item veto (thank you very much Supreme Court) and vetoing otherwise crucial bills (e.g. funding for the troops, or energy bill finally allowing nuclear energy) is often impossible. I think W deserves more blame for the prescription drug bill (that was blatant attempt to out-democrat dems by buying the votes from seniors).”

    i agree that the passage of Medicare Part D, especially with the prohibition of negotiating over drug prices was a very very poor move.

    As for “not being able” to veto bills that included important funding, I say (with no offense to you intended) hogwash. A REAL leader would go on TV tell the public that he was going to veto the bill, and send it back with a demand for a clean bill (to be passed within 24 hours), and would urge Americans to flood the Congressional phone lines with calls demanding a clean bill.

    Leadership often requires doing things that impose short-term pain in order to achieve long-term benefits. Saying “Oh that evil free-spending congress made me do it” doesn’t work for me.

  292. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:16 pm

    tanks are death traps in an urban environment.

    The weakest armor on a tank in the armor on top of the turret. An urban area where any one can unexpectedly drop a potentially explosive package onto the top of the turret is a very big concern for tanks. That and their exhaust ports.

    IEDs buried under the road can also be very dangerous to tanks.

    Remember tanks were designed for high tech armour on armour combat. They are also designed to operate in “packs” as they have significant blind spots and 1 or 2 tanks alone can be highly vulnerable in certain circumstances.

    a tank should be a respected opponent but is far from invulnerable

  293. House Hunter says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:16 pm

    Charlie Gasparino states that there are rumors/speculation for a new stimulus package valued s-at 1 trillion dollars…mostly aimed at housing

  294. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:20 pm

    i wonder if this new stimulus package will come in a plain brown wrapper?

  295. Outofstater says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:20 pm

    #277 I’ve heard the same thing – expensive salon around here has seen an 8% increase in business.

  296. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:22 pm

    ChiFi,

    SEE 294, I am confident and upbeat about the potential for a group of dismounted individuals (not in armour or other vehicles that may carry heavy weapons) being able to defeat a tank

  297. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:22 pm

    “Cathy Moyer, 48, said she voted straight Democratic because they are the ones who will take care of people in these ‘times of trouble.'”

    http://www.app.com/article/20081104/NEWS/811040358&referrer=FRONTPAGECAROUSEL

    Help me Obi Wan (Baraki Wan?), you’re my only hope.

  298. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:26 pm

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/27530827

    Evem more good news to boost the market today. Up is down and good is bad, and spending is savings right?

  299. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:28 pm

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/27532941

    More evidence that people are so flush that they are redy to jump back into RE and push prices up.

  300. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:31 pm

    “Consumers who are already under pressure from high food and fuel prices and a crumbling housing market found themselves in an even worse off in October.”

    In the world where bad news is good, this is good news, then?

  301. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:33 pm

    Shore [300],

    That’s funny, our weekend mall reporter, states that malls are overflowing and everybody is spending like there’s no tomorrow?

  302. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:34 pm

    Pah-leeze,

    This is what law enforcement officials are spending their time doing?

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/04/AR2008110401899.html?hpid=topnews

    Washington Post Staff Writer
    Tuesday, November 4, 2008; 12:27 PM

    Businesses that hope to reward voters today for exercising their patriotic right might be committing a felony.

    A number of companies, including Starbucks, Ben & Jerry’s and California Tortilla, said they would give out free food and sweets today to customers displaying an “I Voted” sticker.

    But such freebies might be a violation of election laws — they could be viewed as bribes even after a vote has been cast.

    Leave it to the law to spoil all the fun.

    In Georgia, the secretary of state’s office issued a statement yesterday reading: “Businesses are free to offer ‘Election Day’ specials or sales for all of its customers, but gifts, incentives or specials just for voters is prohibited under this provision.”

    snip

  303. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:35 pm

    “everybody is spending like there’s no tomorrow”

    BC,

    Perhaps they are worried about losing the CCs soon.

  304. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:36 pm

    Time to flog the staff. Happy E dayeveryone. Democrats, feel free to vote for M.

  305. Now a Renter says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:39 pm

    Allow me to interject some actual RE information into this increasingly financial/political blog. My wife and I sold our 2BR/2BA condo in Hoboken, we closed this past Friday. We originally bought preconstruction in 2000 for 245k. Condo was 1080 sqft with deeded parking, good walk to path, nice new building. As recently as last summer comparable units were selling for as much as 600k!

    I’ve been cajoling my wife to sell and rent since 2005. With a second baby on the way I finally got my way. We initially listed for $549k and had no interest. A week later we dropped to $514k and got 3 bids, all at asking. Only one bid was deemed likely to close (nearly 40% down). We listed in September and closed at the end of October. I feel bad for some of our neighbors who have bought in the last 2 years as they are now very underwater. One comparable unit was listed since August at $589k. I’d guesstimate Hoboken condos at least 15% of peak and still dropping fast.

  306. DL says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:41 pm

    Ref 294: Ket, not sure of your background on this; maybe you’re a former tanker or have access to expert opinion but the Army thinks tanks are not only useful but necessary in urban environments. Every heavy Army division rotates through Iraq whereas the light/airborne units go to Afghanistan.

  307. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:42 pm

    At least china knows how do put forth a bailout that gets results……

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/03/AR2008110303486_pf.html

    When Chong Yik Toy Co. went bankrupt, the bosses fled without meeting their payroll and angry workers took to the streets in protest. Less than 72 hours later, the local government came to the rescue.

    Armed with bags full of cash totaling half a million dollars, accountants began distributing the money so the 900 former employees would have something to get by on. The Chinese officials who made the emergency payments on Oct. 21 called it an “advance,” part of a “back-pay insurance fund.”

    But the reality was obvious to everyone: It was a government bailout.

    For the first time in the 30 years since China began its capitalist transformation, there is a perception that the economy is in real trouble. And for the Communist Party, the crisis is not just an economic one, but a political one. The government’s response offers a glimpse into its still ambiguous relationship with capitalism — relatively hands-off in good times, but quick to intervene directly at the first signs of a downturn in order to prevent popular unrest.

  308. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:45 pm

    “everybody is spending like there’s no tomorrow”

    Perhaps they are right?

  309. Hard Place says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:45 pm

    Now a Renter,

    Sounds like you did the right thing. Welcome to the club…

    Out of curiousity, renting in Hoboken? A larger place? What’s your time horizon to get back in the RE game.

    I’m in a similar situation, but I never bought. Two kids and waiting until 2010.

  310. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:46 pm

    “As to the gtg, I’ll definitely attempt to make the next one as I’ve got a lot of damn people here that I need to face down. I want to see match up the terrorist face with the words I read here.”

    Haven’t we heard these empty words before?

  311. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:49 pm

    Hey Frank-

    Suck on post #302.

  312. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:50 pm

    Frank-

    Then suck on #306.

  313. RentL0rd says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:51 pm

    Anybody wonder what Cheney is doing right now?

  314. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:52 pm

    Tard (307)-

    I like you better as an idiot troll.

    You fit that role best.

  315. John says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:53 pm

    A single family moderately priced 3 bedroom two bath starter home in a decent town is considered the best collateral on a loan. Lot less price swings and people have to buy them. People get married, have kids, trade down etc. People don’t need mcmansions with high RE, they are a want and are hot in rapidly rising RE times and a good economy where people feel secure in their jobs. Those single family homes may drop, lets say 500K to 400K. But 2 million dollar peak priced homes with 24K taxes are going to get hit a lot harder.

    3b Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
    #280 John: and wait it out.

    Wait what out the price dcline? So only high priced houses will decline, but lower priced houses will not because everybody will rent them out, and wait it out.

    I guess if they do not mind waiting 10 years like last time, you could be right. I would think most would want the cash (however much it is), now.

  316. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:53 pm

    rent (315)-

    Torturing an orphan?

  317. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:53 pm

    Anybody wonder if Cheney is still alive?

  318. All Hype says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:55 pm

    1) Say something conservative and let’s just see who the hell you are.
    – Reduced income taxes for middle class working families whose imcome is between 100-250k
    – Reduceed capital gains taxes for the same people listed above.
    – I am opposed to any increases in school spending proposed by Gov. Corzine cause the money is alwys left unchecked.
    – I am in favor of maximum jail time for all violent offenders without excpetion. Especially rapists and child molesters. No early release.
    – I believe in helping those in need with education and not endless handouts. I follow the quote, “God helps those who help themselves.”

    2) Answer the following questions:

    a) Do you support Mac/Sarah?
    No, McCain screwed up when he picked Palin.

    b) Do you support the war?
    Yes, only in Afganistan

    c) Did you vote for GWB?
    No and I thank God every day. My conservative family regrets this.

    d) What are your religious beliefs?
    Greek Orthodox Christian. Old School Christianity.

    Don’t be a pantywaist and dodge the questions. Just answer them straight.

    As to the gtg, I’ll definitely attempt to make the next one as I’ve got a lot of damn people here that I need to face down. I want to see match up the terrorist face with the words I read here.

  319. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:55 pm

    Parents of Minn. 7-year-old find methamphetamine and $85 in cash among his Halloween treats

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/sns-ap-odd-halloween-meth,0,7717676.story

    I have to find out where this kid goes trick-or-treating!

  320. Sean says:
    November 4, 2008 at 1:59 pm

    I”m going to drink 2 gallons of water before visiting Cheney’s eventual resting place.

  321. ben says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:00 pm

    toshiro,

    Sears has been empty for 20 years now. They were on life support through their Sear’s card program. That’s blown up in their face now.

  322. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:02 pm

    Now 50.5 is composing a test on this blog?

    50.5,

    What’s 40% off 700K?

  323. Sean says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:02 pm

    Can’t make this stuff up, poor Mc.Cain he is going to be ass kicking himself until at least Christmas.

    Pa.lin won’t say if she voted for Ted Stevens.

    “I am also exercising my right to privacy,”Pa.lin said. “And I don’t have to tell anybody who I vote for. Nobody does. And that’s really cool about America, also.”

  324. Victorian says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:04 pm

    Hey Clot, I might be light years late on this. I remember that some big name Italian Clubs were relegated to Serie B due to the matchfixing (?) scandal. Did they ever make it back?

  325. John says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:04 pm

    You know what I like this Paulson guy!!! Make him Gov of NJ. Loaning money to CIT is very smart. They will lend it out unlike the big banks. He should have the markets fixed in a few weeks. Even better the REAL AMERICANS like me and RE 101 were buying when America was on sale in October and are being rewarded and the cry babies who bought overpriced housing and sold stock at the bottom in a panic are being punished. Now that I called the bottom, my 10K DJIA prediction is almost here I am hoping for some type of additional GM bail out. Lets get this party started!!!

  326. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:04 pm

    “Pa.lin won’t say if she voted for Ted Stevens.”

    Bring out the water boards?

  327. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:05 pm

    DL,

    I was involved with a cavalry unit for a while. ever see an M!A go airborne ;)

    Armor certainly has its uses and i will be first to recognize this, even in urban environments. However traditional armor (tanks) have unique vulnerabilities that present themselves when the tank is placed in an urban environment. Consider a medieval knight in full armor. To an unarmored swordsman the knight greatly out classes him. but put that knight, or that tank in certain environments and all that armor can become more of a liability then an assets.

    As an example look at the marine Stryker vehicle. It was designed to be less vulnerable and more effective in urban or semi urban environments where marines often have to fight

    To put things into a different perspective; a group of 2 or 3 men have no real effective way of engaging a tank in an open environment unless they have anti tank munitions. But in an urban environment a group of 3 or so men could pose a serious risk to a tank.

    I do not dispute the army’s stance, but consider that they are not going to advertise the vulnerability of its weapons systems either

    Dig around and look at how tanks were being disabled and/or destroyed in Iraq by insurgents.

  328. lostinny says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:05 pm

    A report from hell, otherwise known as Staten Island.
    I vote in a school on the North Shore where there is never a line at 6:45 AM. Actually, there’s never a line any time. At 6:50, I was behind at least 8 other people waiting on my particular district. It took a little over 20 minutes. My husband got there at 6:35 and was in and out in about 5 minutes with no line. As a side note, my husband saw our neighbor who emigrated here from Africa (though I cannot remember where exactly). She became a citizen and this is the first election she was able to vote in. Obviously, she was pretty happy.

  329. John says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:06 pm

    Chump Change

    BC Bob Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
    Now 50.5 is composing a test on this blog?

    50.5,

    What’s 40% off 700K?

  330. Now a Renter says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:07 pm

    Hard Place,

    Yeah, we stayed in Hoboken and rented a much bigger place. We enjoy Hoboken and as long as I still have a job in NYC we’ll likely stay here. Our first kid is only 2 so we don’t need to move out for schools at this point. I have no idea where RE prices will go , but we’ll only buy if it makes financial sense. We have no problem renting and are prepared to be renters for the long haul.

    One other tidbit, at closing we found out that taxes on the condo went up 2k per year, from 7k to 9k! A pleasant surprise for the new owners.

  331. Now a Renter says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:07 pm

    Hard Place,

    Yeah, we stayed in Hoboken and rented a much bigger place. We enjoy Hoboken and as long as I still have a job in NYC we’ll likely stay here. Our first kid is only 2 so we don’t need to move out for schools at this point. I have no idea where RE prices will go , but we’ll only buy if it makes financial sense. We have no problem renting and are prepared to be renters for the long haul.

    One other tidbit, at closing we found out that taxes on the condo went up 2k per year, from 7k to 9k! A pleasant surprise for the new owners.

  332. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:09 pm

    John,

    I called a trading range in the DJIA of 7.5 to 10.5. You are beginning to develop the same short-term memory inflicting Bi. If you thought the market was on sale at DJIA 8k just wait until it gets down to 6K.

    This market has not yet priced in the absence of xmas and >8% unemployment. Both are due by February of 2009.

  333. John says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:09 pm

    http://www.smartmoney.com/news/ON/?story=ON-20081104-000603-1245

    List of all banks in the TARP, here is your list of pref stocks and bonds to buy.

  334. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:11 pm

    John [331],

    You are almost as funny as 50.5.

  335. skep-tic says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:11 pm

    #317

    “A single family moderately priced 3 bedroom two bath starter home in a decent town is considered the best collateral on a loan. Lot less price swings and people have to buy them. People get married, have kids, trade down etc. People don’t need mcmansions with high RE, they are a want and are hot in rapidly rising RE times and a good economy where people feel secure in their jobs. Those single family homes may drop, lets say 500K to 400K. But 2 million dollar peak priced homes with 24K taxes are going to get hit a lot harder.”

    hey John, up by me, those 3/2 starter homes range from 500,000 to 1.1m (most are in 800,000 to 1m range). still secure collateral?

  336. skep-tic says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:12 pm

    woops, meant #321

  337. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:12 pm

    Oh yeah, forgot to mention the option Armageddon too, which should prove to be at least equally as large and damaging as the subprime debacle which is still not played out.

  338. John says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:14 pm

    Stu – I don’t care about unemployment and retail. Anyone who is unemployed or works in a big box story can’t afford a house, new car or to invest anyhow. I am looking forward to the perfect situation “the jobless recovery” Companies rein in spending, financing costs fall and employees are asked to work harder for less pay. That will cause stocks to soar and keep rates low. In the jobless recovery the people who manage to hold onto their jobs are rewarded by cheap realestate, vacations, luxery items and cars. Making money when no one else has money is the key. The subprime sludge spend it as soon as they get it and artificialy drive up prices that the hard working folks refuse to pay. So in those times we are employed but can’t spend. A hampton house, acre dream home, late model used porsche convt and great vacations all await us in the jobless recovery.

  339. Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:16 pm

    [311]

    It’s talk like that which swayed me from hosting the next GTG. And I will be damn selective about who I give a business card to. Even if I am closer to Reinvestor than I am to, say, Schabadoo, or even Stu on occasion, that sort of calling out is, IMHO, uncalled for.

    Even though the blogs don’t approximate real life (the biggest junkyard dogs on line will usually pussy out IRL), and I am quite capable of looking out for myself, there’s too much to lose by throwing down with zealots and idiots.

    Even when you win.

  340. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:21 pm

    John [344],

    The dream is reality.

    “In the first three months of this year, banks have launched preliminary foreclosure actions – known as lis pendens proceedings -against a record 120 borrowers in East Hampton and Southampton towns.”

    http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/05/nypost-15-milli.html

  341. John says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:21 pm

    I would love DJIA 6k as much as DJIA 10.5K. If Macy’s had a 50% off sale and I went and got some stuff on sale and the next day it went back to full price I would be happy. If the next week they had a 75% off sale I would go back and buy some more and be happy. Just buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy, if you throw 5K a month in the market every month and keep bottom fishing between prefs, corp bonds, convt bonds, munis, cds and beaten down stocks you will be right more than wrong. Unlike housing where you have to stick it in all at once in the market you can stick it in a little at a time, kinda the difference between a 40 YO late night porky and a young first timer.

    Stu Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
    John,

    I called a trading range in the DJIA of 7.5 to 10.5. You are beginning to develop the same short-term memory inflicting Bi. If you thought the market was on sale at DJIA 8k just wait until it gets down to 6K.

    This market has not yet priced in the absence of xmas and >8% unemployment. Both are due by February of 2009.

  342. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:23 pm

    vic (330)-

    Juventus. They are back, with a bang. Playing Champions League now.

  343. skep-tic says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:23 pm

    hamptons houses are another great example of vastly overpriced homes in a desireable area that are really inadequate collateral for the loans, even if the loans were fixed rate, high fico, etc.

  344. Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:24 pm

    [220] JoJo

    Why?

    1. It may be very scarce sometime next year if certain legislation is passed.

    2. It will be scarce sooner because of demand (and there is a lot of demand from what I have observed).

    3. Items in demand and short supply make good investments

    4. Can’t raise prices on stuff you already own.

    5. Better to have it and not need it, than need it and not have it. Since I use it anyway, I do need it (or at least want it).

    6. Who said anything about tangling with tanks? We aren’t running an antigovernment compound here.

  345. Mikeinwaiting says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:25 pm

    John 344 You are the poster boy for the dems
    in that post. They are coming for your wallet,you can’t have all that while others
    have no job. Welcome to the new O world of USA.

  346. Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:26 pm

    [261] skep,

    Geez, sage words again. I think it, you say it.

    Personally, it is getting a bit spooky.

  347. Qwerty says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:29 pm

    Stu at 11:45am — “I can’t wait for this election to be over so the ignoramus lies can cease for a minimum of 4 years.”

    Spoken like a True Believer.

    The sooner you learn that ALL politicians lie and pander, the sooner you will join the real world.

    Look at the House and Senate voting records the past 8 years, most of today’s whiners were on the same train, and The Messiah himself voted yes to the Patriot Act.

    Take off the blinders already.

  348. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:30 pm

    “Companies rein in spending, financing costs fall and employees are asked to work harder for less pay. That will cause stocks to soar and keep rates low. In the jobless recovery the people who manage to hold onto their jobs are rewarded by cheap realestate, vacations, luxery items and cars. Making money when no one else has money is the key.”

    But John, whose buying the needless cr@p that these companies are selling? This is the problem with the trickle-down theory. When you don’t let it trickle down (see the dramatic increase in the wage gap since Reagan’s first term), the thunderstorm at the top slows to a fine mist.

    And trust me John, most companies have tightened the screws to the point of stripping them in 2002 and 2003. As wages get frozen and coworkers get the pink slips, the poor morale among the remaining staff does not help improve productivity whatsover.

    All I see is earnings getting lowered and lowered and P/Es not yet reflecting the reality of how bad it really is. It is smart to buy stocks and bonds when there is value in them (evaluting the price to cash flow ratio, especially when there is tight credit), but only if you see a return to prosperity in the near future. I see much more doom and gloom with the lack of an impetus for change.

    Sheyit, the wealthy feel like their getting screwed when they pay less in taxes than almost any other developed nation in the world.

    The greed will come home to roost when you realize that outside of shorting this crisis, their ain’t a damn place to make enough money off your investments to stay ahead of inflation. Bonds do default John.

  349. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:32 pm

    #331 John: Now that I called the bottom,

    A bottom?? Way too early grasshopper, and for you who have been around awhile, I should not have to use the word grasshopper.

  350. John says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:33 pm

    I had a low paying 100% recession proof job in 1990-1993. In that period, I picked up a nice RTC coop for 25 cents on a dollar, bought a used Benz convt and jeep wrangler cheap, took a few vacations dirt cheap and rented three hampton houses half off. When times were good and I still had that job I felt dead broke as I could not afford anything at full price. The people on this site will unleash their millions of dollars when the time is right and strike buffet style!!!

  351. skep-tic says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:33 pm

    from WSJ Deal Journal:

    “A commercial real-estate crash would be devastating to the economy. Commercial real-estate loans, including commercial mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations, total $3.7 trillion. It is only a slow burn right now: Many of those CMBS and CDOs mature in 2010 and 2011, leading Barrack to predict a “refinancing crisis” in the next three years–and with buyers drying up, egress will be difficult. “The overriding problem for all refinancing issues is that sale is not a viable option. Transaction volume is dwindling; to date, retail center sales volumes are down 85%, office is down 75% and hotels 95%,” Barrack wrote.

    Who stands to hurt the most? The list starts with the biggest holders of the loans, which include insurance companies, hedge funds and banks, specifically regional banks, Barrack wrote. Even as those banks are struggling with liquidity, they are “the reservoirs of some of the most dangerous pools of commercial real estate loans.” He reasons that investment banks took many of the highest-quality loans, leaving regional banks holding those commercial loans without stable income streams, often from their own banking clients.”

  352. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:35 pm

    DL,

    Skep, Nom Re 261

    Such a strategy does not have a pleasant long term outcome

    —————————–

    Nom,

    Whats up with friday?

  353. John says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:35 pm

    3b, I bought stocks at the low in 1987, the low in 2008 and RE at the low in 1991 and RE once again christmas week 1999. I can smell a low, us folks who work south of wall street smell it in the sea air. That was teh low for 2008!!!! Now 2009 is anyones guess.

  354. Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:37 pm

    [275] jamil.

    Don’t know where you get your info but the Mass. income tax repeal has been polling poorly ever since introduction. I think it is because most worry that the burdens will be shifted to property taxes. No one expects it to pass.

    Worth noting that except for a brief period where the income tax rates were comparable, “Taxachusetts” always had lower taxes than New Jersey.

  355. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:37 pm

    Qwerty,

    I am not a true believer. Will not be pulling the lever for Lautenberg and a few other party liners. I know both sides lie and pander. It’s the ignorant lies and baseless fears, such as riots and wallet emptying that I despise. I’ll be the first to admit that Biden is barely better than SP, but you are the true believer in thinking that SP is fit to run this country, when she can’t even manage her own family.

  356. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:39 pm

    #321 John:Those single family homes may drop, lets say 500K to 400K.

    Who is to say they do nto drop further.

    People can only pay 400K if they have job that would suppport a 400K house,and the 8 to 10k taxes that go along with it.

    Plus they need a down payment (everything old is new again).

    Plus they need to have some reasonable asuurance that they will remain employed.

    Many of these 3/2 houses that you speak of were/are purchased by the so called middle class, lots of the back office/mid office Wall St types you are fond of mentioning.

    With the “street” in lock down mode, and many other sectors of the economy contracting job wise who will be left to purchase at the 400K price?

  357. Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:40 pm

    Kettle,

    I had proposed a GTG but the only feedback was from Stu and Gator, both of whom would effectively not be able to make it. Given that it is a hike from Montclair, that may not be a hardship, even though I wanted to meet them.

    Also, I am in the City that afternoon at a CLE so I might not even be early to my own GTG.

    So I will put it to the assembled masses again: Is there any interest in a Brigadoon GTG this Friday evening.

    Conversely, would a different day work better?(and you must specify the day)

    Show of hands please!!!

  358. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:41 pm

    We should have done a GTG tonight to watch the poll results. That would have been a riot ;)

  359. schabadoo says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:45 pm

    Please do not utter the name of that putz.

    As for “not being able” to veto bills that included important funding, I say (with no offense to you intended) hogwash.

    The guy had free rule. To blame him for not corralling Congress is a red-herring, it was one party rule.

  360. NJGator says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:50 pm

    362 Nom – Brigadoon GTG Sat night instead? If not, throw out some other weekends. The weekend of the 14th is tough. Stu is playing poker on the 14th (but Lil Gator’s school is doing a late night, so I could make it) and I have plans the 15th which require Stu to watch Lil Gator. We could also do the weekend of the 21st.

  361. Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:52 pm

    [358] Kettle,

    No, and my compound and tax planning is predicated on the sort of scenario that Skep describes. I find it has the highest probability, which means higher levels of taxation and more debt, which makes rural, off-the-grid (financially at least) productive land more appealing. The thinking is that rural areas already have low property taxes and conservative, self-sufficient populations, and will not have to raise them much if burdens are shifted. Further, I doubt the possiblity and legality of federal property taxes. Rather, I see a continuation of higher taxes, burden shifting to states, and a ballooning of the deficit as politicians pass off the baby boom to generations 100 years hence. In fact, I blithely predict that the feds will introduce a 50 year treasury bond. This concept has been bandied about for some years now, but it may actually see the light of day.

    The domestic compound idea, coupled with my tax and asset protection strategies, are intended to preserve wealth through multiple generations, enable U.S. based grantors and their families to get benefits, and effectively “equity strip” value from any U.S. based real estate.

    BTW, if you were curious why I wanted to do the compound with a small group, it was to leverage everyone’s capital into a better property, but also to avoid the controlled foreign corporation rules. I envisioned that the compound would be coupled with offshore tax and asset protection planning. Naturally, repatriation is a problem, but if TSHTF, it might not.

    I still have some concerns about the PFIC rules and lending/insurance. That is something I am researching.

  362. make money says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:52 pm

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMdF1CiQAkA

    Peter Schiff on Street.com

    Disclaimer: I stand where I sit.

  363. Sean says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:57 pm

    Did somebody say riots?

    Voting Intimidation By Black Panthers In Philadelphia

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCeD1RcJjAg

  364. Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    November 4, 2008 at 2:57 pm

    Only if F*&king California does a solar energy project in a desert get killed because of environmental concerns.

    “The risky nature of Big Solar projects has been driven home with California regulators’ move to kill a controversial $1.3 billion transmission line that would have connected massive solar power stations in the desert to coastal cities.

    “These projects are unlikely to proceed,” wrote Jean Vieth, an administrative law judge with the California Public Utilities Commission, in a ruling rejecting San Diego Gas & Electric’s Sunrise Powerlink transmission line.”

  365. Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    November 4, 2008 at 3:01 pm

    [369] Sean,

    Depends on where they are. Ironically, they are probably suppressing more O votes than M votes if they are in Phila.

    If they were on the Main Line, or Pennsyltucky, then they would not be there very long. Not a lot of love for troublemaking brothers outside of Philadelphia.

  366. make money says:
    November 4, 2008 at 3:01 pm

    From another blog on the topic of gov’t stimulus and bailout packages. I thought it hit the nail on the head.

    Where in the Constitution does the federal government have the power to invest in anything? Let’s make something clear, the government has no capital, it’s insolvent. Wealth comes from productivity, the government does not produce anything, therefore to obtain wealth the government must steal it from the people. If the market is not signaling people to invest in something, it’s obviously not demanded, so why bother forcing it?

  367. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 3:03 pm

    #358 John: Are you sayin that real state too is at a low a this point.

    I believe (grim/Rich) can correct me if I am wrong, that prices in North Jersey are only down 10% from peak.

    Does not sound like a bottom to me. And as for stocks cannot see a rally there, (apart from puffery going on now),as earning reports will continue to rapidly decline as the recession progresses. Or has that changed too?

    Do earnings no longer correlate to stock prices?

    Are we to believe that we can have a tough recession, with declining earnings but still have a rising stock and real estate market? Does that make any sense to you?

  368. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 3:05 pm

    3b:

    “Are we to believe that we can have a tough recession, with declining earnings but still have a rising stock and real estate market? Does that make any sense to you?”

    Exactly.

  369. Qwerty says:
    November 4, 2008 at 3:14 pm

    Stu, SP is not running for president, but regardless, she still has more governing experience than The Messiah. The Dem ticket is backward, it should be JB/BO, not the other way around.

    As for attacks on the woman’s family, that doesn’t warrant a response.

  370. skep-tic says:
    November 4, 2008 at 3:17 pm

    I really think best case scenario from a RE bulls perspective is that RE prices have wiped off the lending excesses of the 2005-07 period. I do not think there can be any reasonable claim that local RE has priced in the effect of the current recession, job losses, lower comp. These latter factors I think are going to be much more important over the next couple of years because they really are the fundamentals when it comes to RE. Financing is definitely secondary compared to employment/income.

  371. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 3:19 pm

    Qwerty (374):

    “she still has more governing experience than The Messiah”

    Maybe if you measure quantity over quality, but even that is debatable.

    Joe Biden puts his foot in his mouth way to often to have run a successful presidential campaign.

  372. Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    November 4, 2008 at 3:19 pm

    [355] 3b

    When you can snatch the pebble from my hand, it is time to go.

  373. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 3:22 pm

    #375 skeptic: I agree, I would add that a 10% decline IMO does not wipe out the lending excess of 2005-07.

  374. skep-tic says:
    November 4, 2008 at 3:23 pm

    and actually, having just seen the Sept numbers for Westchester, it seems that prices are still ahead slightly of where they were in 2006 at this time (of course, prices were rising 15% YoY at that point). So I do not even really think we have wiped off all of the froth from the super-loose lending (probably only about halfway there in my area– another 10-15% to go right there) AND we have not yet begun to see the declines brought about by the recession.

  375. John says:
    November 4, 2008 at 3:24 pm

    400K is a downpayment nowdays!!!

  376. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 3:31 pm

    Today, one of my workers in Chennai asked me when would be a good time to invest in the markets. I told him when the government stops trying to intervene in the free markets. He asked when I thought that would be. I said when they realize that they are only making things worse. He replied, “We are doomed!”

  377. bi says:
    November 4, 2008 at 3:32 pm

    RE will hold and move up slowly. why? after this stock market turmoil, people will take money from stocks to RE so that they can live more confortably rather than seeing their assets be wiped out. Personally i think it will create better return by investing in stock market at this price level.

  378. skep-tic says:
    November 4, 2008 at 3:35 pm

    The house that I am currently renting was purchased in 2001 for $310k. The house across the street from me, which is smaller, unrenovated and is unsuitable for a teardown due to position of the lot, is on the market for $750k.

    Obviously my neighbor’s house is insanely overpriced. There are similar, nicer houses in my neighborhood priced below $500k, but these have sat on the market for the entire year as well.

    The fact is that these are starter houses (capes and ranches) and at these prices only the very best ones are going to sell, if any. If you house is not totally renovated and on a cul de sac, you are not selling.

    Now if these non-perfect starter houses were priced at $350 (basically close to the inflation adjusted 2001 price) I think most would sell. The fact is that most people’s compensation hasn’t really gone up that much from the beginning of the decade. the only people who have seen their comp go up by a lot are now on the chopping block and even if they survive are likely to see their comp go back to where it was in the 2002 recession. So I think 2001-02 prices are coming which means 30%+ off where they are right now.

  379. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 3:40 pm

    “so that they can live more confortably rather than seeing their assets be wiped out.”

    bi,

    Well, present owners are in a disturbing situation, sitting on pins and needles as their # 1 asset, home, is getting decimated. Maybe an arb strategy would work.

  380. grim says:
    November 4, 2008 at 3:51 pm

    From DealBreaker:

    Gasparino: There Will Be Blood

    Charlie Gasparino reports that sources tell him “every major firm is bracing for cuts of up to 15 percent,” with Goldman axings coming this week. The situation is fluid.

  381. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 3:55 pm

    #383 skeptic:So I think 2001-02 prices are coming which means 30%+ off where they are right now.

    I would be more than fine with that.

  382. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 3:56 pm

    Sorry #387 shoudl be in response to #384

  383. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 4:00 pm

    #383 bi:RE will hold and move up slowly. why? after this stock market turmoil, people will take money from stocks to RE so that they can live more confortably rather than seeing their assets be wiped out.

    Based on what? Actually my first question should be why to I do this to myself?

    But any how bi, which people, will take money etc etc, the people that are laready in houses? Are they going to take money and buy other houses? Where will they get that money, form their decimated stock prtfolios?

    Or is it the people who have not bought, but are waiting on the sides, because many considered prices to be too high?

    Are they going to take the money from their decimated stock portfolios to buy houses that they have also watched decline in price?

  384. Stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 4:04 pm

    Bi,

    How about these apples…

    Housing prices and equity prices are closely related.

    Neither is a good investment in a souring economy.

  385. John says:
    November 4, 2008 at 4:06 pm

    Who is bringing the rotten tomatoes in tommorrow to throw at the exGS workers on the way out the door?

  386. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 4:11 pm

    John [391],

    Ex GS employees on the unemployment line;

    http://216.157.72.249/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/lehmanblockade.jpg

  387. John says:
    November 4, 2008 at 4:13 pm

    Home prices and equity prices are not that related. From Dec 1992 to Dec 1999 we had a Huge stock run up and Homes barely moved. Stocks crashed in 1987 but houses went up in 1987. Stocks fell like a brick in 2001 and 2002 and houses went up. Stocks and home went up from 2003 to 2006. In 2008 stocks fell much more than homes fell.

  388. jamil says:
    November 4, 2008 at 4:20 pm

    I think O might have won even without this unprecedented voter fraud, this just makes it look disgusting:

    “Three television stations in Georgia, Florida and Ohio collaborated by obtaining and comparing voter registration rolls in their states. They found 112,000 people who were registered to vote in two states. Some have already voted twice; a more complete list of those who did so could, in principle, be compiled after the election.”

    I suppose after the election these TV crews will be rounded up for “voter intimidation”..

    http://www.wsbtv.com/politics/17876720/detail.html

  389. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 4:20 pm

    “Stocks crashed in 1987 but houses went up in 1987.”

    John,

    1988 was the end of the RE bull run. If you bought in 1988, you broke even around 1998.

  390. bi says:
    November 4, 2008 at 4:26 pm

    394#, by bliden theory, they are double patriots.

  391. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 4:32 pm

    Hey bi, what happened to biluva?

  392. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 4:32 pm

    “Anybody wonder what Cheney is doing right now?”

    Reviewing the target list for the initial attack on Iran?

  393. Mikeinwaiting says:
    November 4, 2008 at 4:34 pm

    BC 395 Yes I remember it well. Here we go again. Thinking about 12 to 18 monthes for it all to shake out then long flat period
    for RE only kicker could be the hyperinflation down the road. May get caught
    by it, so I took 1 year with 1 year option on the new rental on the other hand at 8k a year rent why buy.

  394. Mikeinwaiting says:
    November 4, 2008 at 4:35 pm

    Shore 398 I’m afraid you might be right.

  395. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 4:36 pm

    Tvarish,

    Not hosting a GTG at home makes sense to this citizen. I MAY BE AVAILABLE ON Sunday evening and perhaps around 7/8 on Monday if anyone is interested.

  396. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 4:37 pm

    ignore the CAPS. Missed it at the traffic light.

  397. Mikeinwaiting says:
    November 4, 2008 at 4:39 pm

    Nom GTG Brigadoon to far from Vernon,never get home.Have fun!

  398. John says:
    November 4, 2008 at 4:39 pm

    RE did not crash in 1987. In fact in the fall of 1987 idiots at cocktail parties were still talking about lucky rent control people who bought at insider price and putting downpayments on sponsor units. In fact my girl friends brother was still selling his spot at closing for a 20K prem up to late 1988. He went from stock trading to coop flipping and landed hard in 1989. Great guy, in his late 20’s got censured from wall street for life in 1987 at 26, in 1988 at 28 declared bankruptcy owing over a million, in 1989 got convicted of drunk driving, in 1990 got arrested for assult and by 1998 at the age of 36 was a multi millionaire!!! At one point he was worth several million at the age of 26-28. America is a great country. He lives in Lionel Richies old mansion with tons of new german cars up and down the driveway and married filthy rich. worth at least 20 million.

  399. Mikeinwaiting says:
    November 4, 2008 at 4:42 pm

    Shore, I hope you are not driving & posting.
    New meaning to multitasking!

  400. Mikeinwaiting says:
    November 4, 2008 at 4:47 pm

    Went to vote about 1030 today never seen so many people at the firehouse. This is a good thing no matter who wins.

  401. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 4:52 pm

    #395 BC Bob:1988 was the end of the RE bull run. If you bought in 1988, you broke even around 1998.

    Yep I lived it. Hopefully John will not come back and tell me it never happened.

  402. Rich In NNJ says:
    November 4, 2008 at 4:52 pm

    Since I’ll be out of town for a few days (I have to lay off a few people), I figured I’d post the following now.

    NJMLS Bergen County Data for October

    Year AvgList$ AvgSold$ MedSold$ #Sold #U/C
    2000 $342,969 $327,550 $250,000 785 828
    2001 $381,687 $371,773 $299,900 897 749
    2002 $429,423 $417,984 $340,000 793 850
    2003 $459,090 $445,238 $364,500 975 923
    2004 $506,324 $491,952 $420,000 888 935
    2005 $612,656 $588,046 $490,000 830 797
    2006 $606,194 $554,717 $446,000 726 763
    2007 $632,078 $580,506 $467,500 576 587
    2008 $588,562 $529,137 $420,000 461 480

  403. Essex says:
    November 4, 2008 at 4:54 pm

    I think SAS’s comments earlier about both candidates being bought and paid for by corporate America is interesting….but off base. There are very clear differences between parties. Their approach to civil liberties…and I certainly hope their approach to fixing government. Vote.

  404. sas says:
    November 4, 2008 at 4:59 pm

    “Seriously, historically, gold has been a lousy investment”

    ha, when I was in the military back in the late late 60’s. There were two underground teams sneaking in and out of southwast Asia.
    One smuggled drugs, the other smuggled metals.

    We raided big honchos place all over nam & Laos, packed it up and made sure it was delivered back in the states. I double dipped like crazy, and took alot off the table.

    then the bullmarket came in the 70s (timing was perfect…too perfect), and many of us, me included, bought the DOW with 1 oz.

    so, for those whom don’t think the govt smuggles things into the country and times it to pefectly to markets… best go back to Disneyland and ride the teacups.

    SAS

  405. jamil says:
    November 4, 2008 at 5:00 pm

    408: Essex. Absolutely agreed. For example, constitutional rights (1st & 2nd amends). It is hard to believe that senators can in this country openly talk about shutting down opposition-friendly media after they gain power. I find it horrifying.

    We are about to join Russia, Zimbabwe and Venezuela and have state-aligned media.

    Anyway, it is always dark before the dawn. There is still hope for the constitutional rights.

  406. sas says:
    November 4, 2008 at 5:01 pm

    ” think SAS’s comments earlier about both candidates being bought and paid for by corporate America is interesting….but off base. There are very clear differences between parties”

    off course there will be differences, there are always middle men whom want power, and there are always Mob fights as to who gets what.

    besides, they can’t make it too obvious.

    The frog in the pot.. you know bloke.

    SAS

  407. sas says:
    November 4, 2008 at 5:04 pm

    THen again, what do I know??

    :)
    SAS

  408. jamil says:
    November 4, 2008 at 5:11 pm

    “Dig around and look at how tanks were being disabled and/or destroyed in Iraq by insurgents.”

    Now we are talking..Maybe I should join the insurgency and revive my military skills.
    As it happen to be, my army battalion in the 1990s was a mine-laying unit (both anti-tank and anti-personnel). The technology was (at least then) decades old, but highly effective, ie even the presence of it forces the enemy to avoid the mined route.

    I thought the skills would one day be needed..

  409. John says:
    November 4, 2008 at 5:12 pm

    It is a Bull Market!!! Who needs jobs, a good economy or solid real estate or even retirement savings. As long as we are bailing out corporate america party on dudes.

  410. HEHEHE says:
    November 4, 2008 at 5:15 pm

    I loaded up on de SDS today…suspect PPT at work, no basis for a 3% pop.

  411. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 5:26 pm

    Jamil,

    sorry to disappoint. I do not plan on revolting against anyone. I am not a hero and have no such aspirations.

  412. Can't Believe It says:
    November 4, 2008 at 5:42 pm

    I can not believe that amount of racism on this site. Grim included. Most of you are very intelligent people, but hateful. It’s sad to see. Everytime someone makes an argument in defense of a race Grim says can I have my blog back but he never has anything to say when people are bashing minorities. It is so sad.

    I still read because most of you are intelligent and make extremely relevent points, but it’s still hurtful to read some of the things said.

  413. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 6:00 pm

    Cant believe,

    care to be a little more specific? minority bashing?

  414. Confused In NJ says:
    November 4, 2008 at 6:06 pm

    Figures of the Census Bureau indicate that, as of 2006, non-Hispanic whites are less than half the population (e.g. a minority) in around 10 percent of the United State’s counties. The new demographic rates are fueled by immigration and higher birth rates among Hispanics and blacks.

  415. chicagofinance says:
    November 4, 2008 at 6:13 pm

    HEHEHE Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
    I loaded up on de SDS today…suspect PPT at work, no basis for a 3% pop.

    HEHEHE: I’m kind of on the same page with you, that there is a serious amount of sell order pant-up about to hit the tape. However, I think there is a really good shot of a rip-your-face- off rally. You could totally get singed…BAD…It means that you shouldn’t be putting any bets to work right now. You are being foolish.

  416. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 6:15 pm

    Confused,

    Are you talking about issues of race or ethnicity. Some folks count certain caucasians as caucasion for one purpose (say Indians, Latin Americans, etc) and then omit them when it is convenient for making a point. I am just trying to understand the framework of the discussion. To say non-Hispanic Americans could also lead one to talk about non-Swedish Americans, non-British Americans, etc.

  417. victorian says:
    November 4, 2008 at 6:22 pm

    Jamil –
    “It is hard to believe that senators can in this country openly talk about shutting down opposition-friendly media after they gain power”

    You are so full of sh!t. I am tired of your propaganda, even though I tried to control myself and not try to feed you, here goes. Here is the video of Neil Cavuto and Menendez.

    http://mx.youtube.com/watch?v=VOXnLkiyCzQ

    There were rumors of Cavuto leaving Fox, and Menendez said that he would hate to see him leave. How the hell is that threatening his job?

    Grim – I do hope that you get your blog back after the election. The informed discussions/debates about the economy and Bi’s blackbox is what makes this blog rock!

  418. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 6:24 pm

    Can’t (417)-

    Are you applying for the butler position here?

  419. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 6:25 pm

    chi (420)-

    Yeah, that unemployment number on Friday should really get things cooking…

    Or, if the Dems hit 60 in the Senate tonight.

    O is baked in. The Soci@list States of America isn’t.

  420. Clotpoll says:
    November 4, 2008 at 6:29 pm

    Can’t (417)-

    If it makes you feel any better, I hate everyone equally.

  421. victorian says:
    November 4, 2008 at 6:31 pm

    Clot – Haven’t you heard? They are not making any more stocks. Buy before you get priced out!

  422. jamil says:
    November 4, 2008 at 6:31 pm

    422 vic: Pelosi and other top-dems have openly said that she would like to bring “Fairness Doctrine” back ie shutting down talk-radio and Fox News.

    Here is what Schumer said today wrt conservative opinions:
    “The very same people who don’t want the Fairness Doctrine want the FCC [Federal Communications Commission] to limit pornography on the air. I am for that… But you can’t say government hands off in one area to a commercial enterprise but you are allowed to intervene in another. That’s not consistent.””

  423. yikes says:
    November 4, 2008 at 6:44 pm

    republicans should not go to drudge report right now. depressing for you guys.

    keep the guns locked up …

  424. grim says:
    November 4, 2008 at 6:45 pm

    Wait.. wait..

    Are you calling me racist because I’ve said something racist? Or are you calling me racist because I didn’t delete the racist things others have said? There is a big difference between the two.

    Free speech trumps idiocy here.

    I admit, I joke around quite a bit, especially with regards to classism, and I probably shouldn’t. Classism is a growing problem, and incredibly prevalent in this area. I have no doubt that we’re going to wake up one day with our own version of the caste system.

  425. grim says:
    November 4, 2008 at 6:58 pm

    I voted for Gomez Addams and the Vegas Bookmaker.

    (note: this is a lie, I’d never admit I voted for O)

  426. grim says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:08 pm

    Grim – I do hope that you get your blog back after the election. The informed discussions/debates about the economy and Bi’s blackbox is what makes this blog rock!

    Zero tolerance policy starts tomorrow, so get it out of your system!

  427. Sean says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:09 pm

    I miss the days when The Jeffersons and All in the Family were on prime time TV. If we do not continually discuss our differences folks we will pick up weapons and kill each other for no good reason.

  428. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:12 pm

    “Grim – I do hope that you get your blog back after the election. The informed discussions/debates about the economy and Bi’s blackbox is what makes this blog rock!”

    Vic [423],

    Amen. Time to shut off the spigot.

  429. Confused In NJ says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:13 pm

    422.Shore Guy Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 6:15 pm
    Confused,

    Are you talking about issues of race or ethnicity. Some folks count certain caucasians as caucasion for one purpose (say Indians, Latin Americans, etc) and then omit them when it is convenient for making a point. I am just trying to understand the framework of the discussion. To say non-Hispanic Americans could also lead one to talk about non-Swedish Americans, non-British Americans, etc

    The words were from the 2006 Census, which counts Hispanics in a separate category. So, Whites are all whites except Hispanic origin whites. Hispanics, using a different method could be classified into white or black, but that is not what the Census was doing. I just think it’s interesting that by 2042, non Hispanic Whites are a projected physical minority versus Hispanics (1) and Blacks (2), yet they would probably still be the majority, when assigning blame.

  430. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:18 pm

    OT, The econmoy;

    SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Japan’s gross domestic product adjusted for price changes fell 0.4% in September compared with the previous month, marking a second consecutive monthly decline, according to data released Wednesday by the Japan Center for Economic Research. The contraction was primarily due to a 1.3% drop in exports, which also fell in August. The research center’s monthly survey, as reported in the Wednesday morning edition of the Nikkei, is more closely watched as an indicator of economic direction than is the Cabinet Office’s quarterly GDP data.

  431. Sean says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:22 pm

    That hologram on CNN looks cheesy, R2D2’s holographic projection of Princess Leia was much cooler.

  432. Sean says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:32 pm

    Brooklyn real estate is now a bust, how soon before these places are up for auction?

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aEWE_9YUNBkI&refer=exclusive

  433. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:43 pm

    hurray i am a minority now!!!!!!! does my son get preferential admission to college and scholarships now? how about hiring quotas.

    now i can tell my client that i get preferential contract consideration since i am a minority!!!!!

    Sweet!

  434. stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 7:59 pm

    Kettle1:

    Now you know my ulterior motive for supporting affirmative action.

  435. HEHEHE says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:01 pm

    I’ll take my chances ineveitably we’ll be visiting those lows again. Especially when all the press releases start flowing like water re co’s reducing earnings expectations.

  436. stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:03 pm

    Pennsylvania has fallen! I think I hear Nell Carter singer a tune.

  438. NJGator says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:07 pm

    Gator was wrong. She thought the networks would call NJ for O at 8:01. They called it at 8 on the nose.

  439. stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:20 pm

    So where are the riots? I just checked my wallet and it’s just as empty as before.

  440. victorian says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:22 pm

    don’t worry bi, the bradley effect will kick in anytime now.

  441. Sean says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:23 pm

    Fox is holding off on PA. NO returns are in.

  442. stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:26 pm

    Zogby? Perhaps they shouldn’t have accepted to do a push poll for the McCain campaign?

  443. stu says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:27 pm

    Zogby? Perhaps they shouldn’t have accepted to do a push poll for the McCane campaign?

  444. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:35 pm

    #415 John: If you say so grasshopper, but of course you will be proven wrong.

  445. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:35 pm

    Is everyone ready to see a landslide victory and an implied mandate to pursue all party policies to their full and glories end results? This will be a presidential term unlike any seen for almost the last century.

  446. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:39 pm

    #425 clot: I am hearing early numbers at possibly 200+. That should get a rally going, or maybe in this new world order it will;bad news is good news. The badder the news, the bigger the rally?

  447. lostinny says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:40 pm

    Obama takes PA

  448. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:41 pm

    #430 grim:Classism is a growing problem, and incredibly prevalent in this area.

    The loss of alot of Wall St jobs, and the recession in general will take care of a lot of that classism.

  449. 3b says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:42 pm

    #408 Rich: Thanks as always,;moving in the right direction.

  450. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:43 pm

    did cant believe every say what his beef was????? or did he just call us all racists then run out the door?

  451. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:46 pm

    3b,

    i disagree,

    the loss of the wallstreet gravy train will only exacerbate the issue. As those very high earners who are left will cling tighter and draw an ever more defined line between them and “us” in a bid to insulate themselves.

    i agree w/ grim on that point

  452. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:49 pm

    Fed Hires Bear Stearns Risk Chief…To Supervise Bank Soundness

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Fed Hires Bear Stearns Risk Chief…To Supervise Bank Soundness

    http://www.ny.frb.org/newsevents/news/aboutthefed/2008/oa081031.html

    Michael Alix has been named a senior vice president in the Bank Supervision Group of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He will serve as a senior advisor to William L. Rutledge, executive vice president, Bank Supervision Group….

    Most recently, Mr. Alix worked for the Bear Stearns Companies, Inc., where he served as chief risk officer from 2006-2008 and global head of credit risk management from 1996-2006. His prior experience included eight years at Merrill Lynch & Company where he was a director, Asia chief credit officer and a vice president, head of North America financial institutions credit. He began his career with the Irving Trust Company where he served as an assistant vice president and lending officer.

  453. Sean says:
    November 4, 2008 at 8:57 pm

    kettle1 – he has extensive experience testifying before both the senate and house finance committees on banking regulation. In my humble opinion he is a plant to push for the regulation of the Swaps markets to the Fed instead of the CTFC. A huge cash cow casino there, the banks want someone on the inside when Barney Frank comes a knocking next year.

  454. bi says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:03 pm

    446#, i don’t know if it is bradley effect or just usual exit poll bias. from MSNBC exit poll, O leads in both VA and IN. but M is actual leading after over 50% votes counted. again, the key is in FL this year.

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27540321/

    >victorian Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 8:22 pm
    don’t worry bi, the bradley effect will kick in anytime now.

  455. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:07 pm

    2 CHEERS FOR DECOUPLING

    Chinese Factories Closing by the Tens of Thousands (67,000 Were Closed In The First Half Of This Year)

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-factory3-2008nov03,1,2982466.story

  456. NJGator says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:09 pm

    Kettle 450 – W took a popular vote loss and electoral college win by 500 FL votes and ran with it like it was a mandate. I don’t think we could possibly be worse off.

  457. NJGator says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:10 pm

    458 Bi – There’s no Bradley effect. You don’t know where those 50% votes came from. My guess is not the bigger more dem urban centers.

  459. sas says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:15 pm

    I am not a racist.

    I hate everyone equally.

    SAS

  460. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:15 pm

    gator…

    true.

    i am not judging either candidate as i would not vote for either one, just a personal observation

  461. BC Bob says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:17 pm

    Grim,

    It’s almost midnight. Please bring your blog back.

  462. sas says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:18 pm

    I voted Nader.
    I ain’t voting for those 2 clowns. Either way, the Federal Reserve owns whomever gets in.. along with some members of NYSE.

    Then again, what do I know. I’ve never left NJ.

    :)
    SAS

  463. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:19 pm

    dow 2008 superimposed on a 1929 chart.

    http://photoput.com/images/92k4w3djulwdqjrre.jpg

  464. sas says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:20 pm

    god damn I wish I could dig up Abe Lincoln and put him in the White House.

    SAS

  465. sas says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:21 pm

    you know.. I like that word “hate”

    ha ha ha

    SAS

  466. sas says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:22 pm

    ok, I’ll behave.
    Sorry JB :)

    SAS

  467. sas says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:24 pm

    kettle,

    an ol buddy of mine gave me 4 M40 gas masks today.

    reminds me of the good ol days!

    SAS

  468. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:25 pm

    FYI the dow chart i posted is nothing but mental masturb@tion. not meant to be a serious statement

  469. bi says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:25 pm

    vote counting should end soon. O took OH.

  470. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:28 pm

    SAS

    The Nice thing about CS gas is that 1. your pain tolerance goes through the roof for a day or so after a good exposure. 2. You wont be congested anymore. 3. Farts dont stink! ( you cant smell anything ).

    Never been gased in the civillian world, but i would have to wonder how effective CS would really be against any group that actually prepare dfor it……

  471. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:30 pm

    i wonder why protestors never took bagies full of cayanne pepper, put an M80 in it and toss it behind the riot control lines, could be more effective then gas grenades.

  472. sas says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:37 pm

    “NYC budget woes hit police, fire, health services”
    http://tinyurl.com/5elvhb

  473. sas says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:42 pm

    well, looks like Omama will win.

    now we know who will be the puppet for the next four years.

    Change..lol

    you wait… you wait..

    cause it coming, everything you’ve ever known will change for the worse.

    SAS

  474. HEHEHE says:
    November 4, 2008 at 9:58 pm

    Yes it is a glorious day. One hopes that Obama will be that once in a lifetime politician who’ll exercise fiscal restraint despite his party’s majority and in light of his predecessor’s excesses.

    I made myself laugh with that one.

    While we’re going to see government spending go through the roof I take a little solace that we’ll no longer be water boarding prisoners, invading countries for little or no reason and making people live in a coma when they’ve expressed they didn’t want too. Of course they’ll likely dream up a bunch of lefty looney sh*t that’ll have my stomach turning within a year.

  475. Sean says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:05 pm

    The Politburo has ordered the Gosbank to give forclosures free rent for three years.

    “The proposal outlines the mechanics of a mortgage bailout that would cost as much as $441 billion, relying primarily on a three-year borrower subsidy that would be repaid in five years, with interest. “Upon receipt of a notice of default on an owner-occupied primary residence, a homeowner could apply to participate in a program under which the government would fully subsidize three years’ mortgage payments in exchange for a note, to be paid in a lump sum five years from receipt of the first payment subsidy, equal to the payment subsidies plus interest accrued at the federal funds rate,” reads the proposal, in part.

    http://www.housingwire.com/2008/11/04/feds-may-be-considering-subsidy-on-troubled-mortgages/

  476. HEHEHE says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:10 pm

    Yes it is a glorious day. One hopes that O will be that once in a lifetime politician who’ll exercise fiscal restraint despite his party’s majority and in light of his predecessor’s excesses.

    I made myself laugh with that one.

    While we’re going to see government spending go through the roof I take a little solace that we’ll no longer be water boarding prisoners, invading countries for little or no reason and making people live in a coma when they’ve expressed they didn’t want too. Of course they’ll likely dream up a bunch of lefty looney sh*t that’ll have my stomach turning within a year.

  477. kettle1 says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:16 pm

    Sean,

    Remind me again why i want to take a loan to help pay the note on a house i cant afford anyway and then have to payback a lump sum????

  478. Sean says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:39 pm

    Time to short Health Insurance companies.

  479. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:56 pm

    “The words were from the 2006 Census, which counts Hispanics in a separate category”

    Interesting. Ethnicity being used as race.

  480. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:57 pm

    So, in a few moments California will report and it will be all over. Time for the Gator family to celebrate, and time for this soon-to-be-poorer citizen to accept a drink from Gator.

  481. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 10:58 pm

    No more Rs in the House from New England and it looks like there may just be 2-3 in NY. All that will be left are the nutjobs from the South.

  482. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:00 pm

    “Yes it is a glorious day. One hopes that O will be that once in a lifetime politician who’ll exercise fiscal restraint despite his party’s majority and in light of his predecessor’s excesses. ”

    I doubt he will but, I hope he will be. I also hope he goes down as one of the best presidents as we could sure use a good one after the past 8 years.

  483. Richie says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:01 pm

    Uhh..

    What happened to West Paterson?

    West Paterson no more

  484. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:01 pm

    Calif just went. I thought I heard a fat lady singing.

  485. yikes says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:02 pm

    its over
    barry wins!

  486. victorian says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:03 pm

    Everybody assume their riot positions!

  488. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:12 pm

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27531033/

    msnbc.com
    updated 3 minutes ago
    Barack Obama, a 47-year-old first-term senator from Illinois, shattered more than 200 years of history Tuesday night by winning election as the first African-American president in the history of the United States, according to projections by NBC News.

    Obama reached the 270 electoral votes he needed for election at 11 p.m. ET, when NBC News projected that he would win California, Washington and Oregon.

    Campaigning as a technocratic agent of change in Washington, not as a pathbreaking civil rights figure, Obama swept to victory over Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona, whose running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, was seeking to become the nation’s first female vice president.

    snip

  489. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:13 pm

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27531033/

    msnbc.com
    updated 3 minutes ago
    B O, a 47-year-old first-term senator from Illinois, shattered more than 200 years of history Tuesday night by winning election as the first African-American president in the history of the United States, according to projections by NBC News.

    O reached the 270 electoral votes he needed for election at 11 p.m. ET, when NBC News projected that he would win California, Washington and Oregon.

    Campaigning as a technocratic agent of change in Washington, not as a pathbreaking civil rights figure, O swept to victory over Republican Sen. jm of Arizona, whose running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, was seeking to become the nation’s first female vice president.

    snip

  490. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:14 pm

    “assume their riot positions”

    We will be assuming the position alright.

  491. yikes says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:16 pm

    I called a trading range in the DJIA of 7.5 to 10.5. You are beginning to develop the same short-term memory inflicting Bi. If you thought the market was on sale at DJIA 8k just wait until it gets down to 6K.

    This market has not yet priced in the absence of xmas and >8% unemployment. Both are due by February of 2009.

    stu, can you elaborate? are you saying you’d completely hold off on the market until Feb?

  492. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:17 pm

    Well, BO will not get 400 EC votes. I guess the new benchmark will be 350, and if the Dems can get 275 seats in the House. Does anyone have a count on the Senate?

  493. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:19 pm

    M just threw in the towel. Time to go to bed.

  494. yikes says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:27 pm

    # bi Says:
    November 4th, 2008 at 3:32 pm

    RE will hold and move up slowly. why? after this stock market turmoil, people will take money from stocks to RE so that they can live more confortably rather than seeing their assets be wiped out. Personally i think it will create better return by investing in stock market at this price level.

    my goodness you are dense. im fascinated by how clueless you are.

  495. Richie says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:30 pm

    At least it’s not Hillary.

    I’m going to turn that into a bumper sticker.

  497. Shore Guy says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:42 pm

    Interesting to look at the difference between the Shore and say Essex co.

  498. yikes says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:44 pm

    cant believe – minority here. you’ve got to take it with a grain of salt. there are imbeciles all over the place, but the smart, intelligent folks outnumber them, thankfully.

    and the clowns spewing the minority-hating are clearly people with issues. karma either got them already or will in the future.

  499. JBJB says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:56 pm

    Congrats to Obama. He ran a near flawless campaign. I wish him the best of luck, he will by my president even though I didn’t vote for him.

  500. yikes says:
    November 4, 2008 at 11:59 pm

    strange NPR link. surprised obama took bucks county in PA. its gotta be 90% white folks out here. i saw one minority out of like 500 people today.

    and barry takes the podium ….

  501. JBJB says:
    November 5, 2008 at 12:01 am

    Congrats to O. He ran a near flawless campaign. He will be my president, even though I didn’t vote for him. I wish him the best of luck.

  502. Shore Guy says:
    November 5, 2008 at 12:27 am

    Updated – Democratic eyes are on four crucial Senate races in their increasingly uphill battle to reach a filibuster-proof Senate majority of 60 seats. At this point, the Democrats must win seats in Alaska — where Republican Ted Stevens is running for re-election after being convicted on seven federal corruption charges last month — Georgia, Minnesota and Oregon to get to that crucial number. Georgia requires the winner to get 51 percent or the vote or there will be a runoff.
    snip

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/11/04/democrats-hope-for-filibuster-proof-majority-in-senate-2/

  503. Shore Guy says:
    November 5, 2008 at 12:28 am

    JBJB

    Indeed.

  504. Can't Believe It says:
    November 5, 2008 at 5:51 am

    I did not run out, I just did not want to watch the election with a group like you.

    Grim to be fair and answer your question, I am pointing to when people make negative race and class comments – you tend to allow free speech when the speech is against minorities and lower classes. But if somone on the blog decided they’ve heard enough and says something against the bashing almost everytime you say, can I have my blog back. I’ve read you do this multiple times.

    As far as Kettle, I was under the assumption that you were intelligent. But you constantly bash…

    Clot…Butler…HA!HA! You’d be surprised who is talking to you. (May a minority be your boss – your worst fear).

    I am rejoicing in the fact that America has spoken and do not reflect the views of this blog. As long as you are qualified, you can achieve.

    God bless America, God bless us ALL.

  505. Clotpoll says:
    November 5, 2008 at 7:10 am

    can’t (511)-

    Wanna know what I can’t stand here? It’s not black people, BTW. I don’t have a problem with black, brown, red or yellow folks. God knows I have plenty of other problems, but this isn’t one of them.

    What I can’t stand are people who assume to know complete strangers through posts they make in cyberspace. And on that count, I find you guilty. Guilty of stupid.

    I’d probably find having a black person be my boss pretty interesting. After 20+ years of self-employment, it would at least be a change of pace.

  506. grim says:
    November 5, 2008 at 7:30 am

    # DL Says:
    November 5th, 2008 at 6:56 am edit

    My office is giddy about yesterday’s results. Although I didn’t vote for him, I’m kind of proud too, especially because it says something about the U.S. that Europe will never be able to say about itself. Anyway, my deputy told me O’s plan for distressed homeowners was a three month foreclosure holiday. I asked how that was going to help when people were using credit cards for basic necessities. He just shrugged. At some point, someone in Washington is going to have to be honest about what’s happening to the economy and whoever it is will get no thanks for it.
    http://www.urbandigs.com/
    Two interesting posts at the link; one on physical ownership of gold, the other on growing credit card debt.

  507. grim says:
    November 5, 2008 at 7:55 am

    gary Says:
    November 5th, 2008 at 7:53 am edit

    Give the people what they want. Bar*ck Husse*n Ob*ma… a community organizer who will ask to give peace a chance and will kneel in front of the world begging for acceptance and forgiveness.

    Who would’ve thought just a mere seven years after 9/11 you would’ve had a man with a name like that in the Whithouse. Bread and Circuses for all. We gave up yet another piece of our sovereignty and saw yet another demonstration of how our country has become a nation of followers instead of a nation of doers.

    You now have soci*list majorities in the House, Senate and the Whithouse… I don’t want to hear one f*cking excuse from a celebrity, a so-called minority or a liberal ever again.

    Everything from this point forward should smell like a rose and I expect a lot of stuff to be handed to me on a golden platter. Indeed… ask what your Country can do for you.

  508. Shore Guy says:
    November 5, 2008 at 8:43 am

    Can’t Believe It,

    I opposed O because of policy differences, I contributed to M because I believed that his policies — overall — would be better for the nation that those of O. I do not buy O’s pronouncements about what is policies will cost, or their implications for the nation. That said, O won, and he will take over a nation that Bush has seriously mismanaged; the nation needs O to succeed and I hope he proves me wrong and turns out to be one of the great presidents of the past 100 years. If he is not, my children and their children will suffer the consequences.

  509. reinvestor101 says:
    November 5, 2008 at 11:22 am

    DAMMIT!

Comments are closed.