From the Daily Record:
Morris seniors get help moving on to the next phase of their lives
Vincent Keegan moved to Cedar Crest in Pompton Plains in late August, after Morris County’s largest senior retirement community helped him sell his Rockaway Township home.
Keegan, a widower who lived in the Birchwood Village development for 50 years, used $6,500 provided by Cedar Crest to spruce up his split-level house for potential buyers and pay his moving expenses.
“I didn’t think they were going to help me out that much,” said Keegan. “If it wasn’t for (them), I don’t think I would have sold the house.”
The help offered to Keegan is part of a series of financial incentives that Cedar Crest’s parent company, Erickson Retirement Communities, recently began to help prospective residents sell their homes in the slumping economy and move to the sprawling complex in Pequannock.
Some other retirement communities in Morris County, including Chelsea Senior Living in Montville and Franciscan Oaks in Denville, also are offering financial incentives to help potential residents combat the real estate slump, such as special reduced rates for assisted living.
At Cedar Crest, the programs offer residents three options: up to $3,000 towards moving expenses, up to $7,500 in Realtor’s fees, or a flexible payment program. Some residents can choose to participate in all three, said Cedar Crest sales director Ray Guarino.
All prospective residents are also contacted by Erickson Realty and Moving Services, which partners with Cedar Crest and offers advice on staging and sprucing up homes to sell, he said.
…
“We haven’t actually seen a downturn in business specifically linked to the lousy economy,” Kranz said. “But we have heard that there’s concern about the value of investments, especially 401(k)s, which are often the source of funding for an assisted living apartment.”
From Bloomberg:
Citigroup, Goldman Said to Begin Eliminating Jobs
Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., faced with a weakening economy and the prospect of mounting losses, began firing workers as part of the firms’ plans to cut more than 12,000 jobs, people with knowledge of the matter said.
Goldman, which converted last month from the biggest U.S. securities firm into a commercial bank, yesterday began telling about 3,200 employees, or 10 percent of its workforce, they were out of a job, according to one of the people who declined to be identified because the decisions were confidential.
Citigroup has been notifying staff this week who are affected by the bank’s plan to discard 9,100 positions over the next 12 months, or about 2.6 percent of its headcount, another person said.
The ousted workers add to the swelling ranks of Wall Street’s unemployed, their lives upended by the credit crisis. Both New York-based firms have already cut staff, and are among the banks and brokerages worldwide that have shed almost 150,000 jobs since the subprime mortgage market collapsed last year. Led by Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman said in April it would fire more after culling about 1,500 underperformers. Vikram Pandit, Citigroup’s CEO, shed 12,900 over the past year.
“We haven’t hit bottom yet,” said Henry Higdon, managing partner at Higdon Partners LLC, a New York-based search firm specializing in financial services. “They have to adjust the size of their businesses to the realities, not only today, but what it’s going to look like in the next two or three years.”
From the WSJ:
U.S. Explores Its Options With TARP
The Treasury Department said it is exploring additional ways to apply a $700 billion financial-industry rescue package approved by Congress in October.
“Treasury is committed to deploying the [Troubled Asset Relief Program] aggressively and is actively considering additional programs to strengthen financial institutions, restore the flow of lending, and address the many challenges to our financial markets posed by the ongoing housing correction,” the Treasury said in its report, delivered to Congress Tuesday.
The program, known as TARP, was passed by Congress last month in response to the crisis in financial markets this year. It gives the Treasury wide latitude to purchase illiquid assets and stakes in financial firms, among other measures.
The Treasury said it hasn’t made any decisions about new rescue programs and offered few details about what areas policy makers are exploring. The report addresses the issue of trying to slow the record levels of foreclosures. “In particular, Treasury will continue efforts to ensure loan modifications are sustainable,” said the report. A separate Treasury report detailing minutes of an Oct. 13 meeting of members of the Financial Stability Oversight Board suggested the Treasury is focusing on how to address ailing mortgages.
From the NYT:
Wall Street’s Pay Is Expected to Plummet
The first clues are emerging that Wall Street pay will plummet this year — but perhaps not enough to satisfy the financial industry’s critics.
Bonuses, which soared to record heights in recent years, could drop by 20 to 35 percent across the industry, according to a private study to be released on Thursday. Bonuses for top executives could plunge by 70 percent.
But to some, those figures, from the consulting firm Johnson Associates, demand the question: Why should Wall Street executives get any bonuses at all? Banks’ profits have plunged, and the government is spending hundreds of billions of dollars to shore up the industry and prevent its problems from dragging down the economy.
A report on Wednesday from the New York State Assembly said Wall Street bonuses could tumble 41.3 percent next year, which could further widen a budget deficit.
From the NY Times:
Mayor Cancels Rebates for Homeowners
Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg said on Wednesday that he would immediately halt a popular $400 property tax rebate and that he might need to raise the city’s personal income tax by up to 15 percent to help plug a budget shortfall expected to hit $4 billion in the next two years.
The announcement that the rebate checks, which had been sent out every year since 2004, would not be coming this fall angered members of the City Council. Mr. Bloomberg also warned that the city’s portion of the state sales tax might need to be increased by roughly 3 percent.
And in a move intended to both conserve resources and pad the coffers, Mr. Bloomberg said the city planned to charge customers a nickel for each plastic bag they use at every store, whether it be a bodega, a Barnes & Noble or a Balducci’s. Aides said they were working out details of the proposal.
The mayor also detailed $1.5 billion in proposed budget cuts that would affect virtually every agency in city government. The measures include closing libraries for a half day, eliminating dental programs and closing a clinic in East Harlem.
Should there be an unexpected upturn in the city’s finances, Mr. Bloomberg said, he might reconsider issuing the rebate checks. But, he said, it is far more likely that the city’s economic outlook would continue to deteriorate, forcing even more cuts, and tax increases, by early next year.
From Bloomberg:
Wall Street’s Top Executives Face 70% Bonus Cuts, Study Says
The most senior executives at Wall Street firms will have their bonuses slashed by as much as 70 percent, more than other employees, amid falling revenue and political pressure, according to a report by Johnson Associates.
The executives whose pay is disclosed in public filings will have the steepest reductions, while bonuses for other workers will drop by between 10 percent and 45 percent this year. Rewards are likely to decline even more in 2009 as business slows further, said Alan Johnson, managing director of Johnson Associates, a compensation consulting firm.
http://www.house.gov/ed_workforce/testimony/2008-10-07-TeresaGhilarducci.pdf
Grim – Speaking of 401k plans…I hope no one is taking this woman seriously…
From HousingWire:
Ambac Posts $2.4 Billion Q3 Loss on “False” MBS Recovery
Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (ABK: 2.01 0.00%) said Wednesday morning that it lost $2.4 billion, $8.45/share, as it absorbed at least $3 billion in write-downs and costs to pay anticipated claims amid further deterioration in the U.S housing market. The quarterly loss widened a $360 million, or $3.53 a share, loss from a year earlier, and were far greater than analysts had expected — leading shares to fall more than 25 percent in early trading on Wednesday.
In an investor presentation, Ambac said that second quarter RMBS trending among private-party transactions it had insured — which had initially turned upward earlier this year — has since proven to be the latest example of a “false positive” in battered mortgage securities markets. It took a $2.7 billion write-down on securities it had guaranteed, leading the insurer to also take a $2.5 billion impairment charge on high-grade CDO of ABS securities.
From HousingWire:
Mortgage Applications Fall, Touch 8-Year Low
In what would appear the latest downward plunge of a perpetual yo-yo, the volume of mortgage applications fell across the country last week, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association and the Mortgage Maxx LLC. In fact, the MBA data suggests that applications are now at an 8-year low.
…
Mortgage Maxx’s separate Mortgage Application Index (the MAX) showed a 9.1 percent decline in application volume for the week, as well, having “lost a third of its value since the beginning of September” due to distress in real estate and financial markets, the report read. While REO sales continue to play a major role in driving home sales volume, they appear to have potentially peaked, according to the MAX data.
“As inventory gets grudgingly sold, organic sales are by definition dismal,” publisher Paul Descloux said in the weekly MAX report. “The collateral damage by way of comps may well exacerbate an already abysmal market for non-distressed sellers.”
http://www.investmentnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081012/REG/310139971
Let’s just hope this thing is dead in the water..
Looks like everyone was surprised by this one, myself included.
From CNBC:
Costco October Same-Store Sales Fall Unexpectedly
Costco Wholesale reported a surprise decline in comparable sales Thursday in what could be a trend of disappointing numbers for retail results due throughout the day.
Costco said sales at stores open at least a year fell 1 percent for the four weeks ended Nov. 2. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters predicted a rise in same-store sales of 3.6 percent.
…
The decline is particular troubling for the retail sector given that low-cost stores like Costco tend to do well during times of economic trouble.
( 6 )
as we get closer to retirement aren’t we supposed to reallocate our 401k portfolio to safer investments. i have to wonder if people who are losing big are doing this. maybe they should buy R E its a great time to buy
#10 grim
maybe food and clothing sales increased at Costco, while big ticket items like electronics and jewelry dropped?
(10) Grim – I avoid Costco lately because of hard economic times. (I usually spend more than planned just walking through the door.) So…I just don’t go – problem solved.
How is Target doing? I do go to target.
My 2008 bonus? Zero. Not only should they get no bonus, but the new world order needs to start thinking about confiscating wealth. (Just kidding.)
Instead of renaming towns in order to raise property values, how about renaming housing developments to reflect the economic health of each?
HELOC Hills
Underwater Mews
Upside Down Downs
Repo Hollows
Default Creek
Subprime Village
Negative Equity Estates
Abandoned Knoll
Jingle Mail Mills
14 in mod. Pretty harmless. Apologies if it crossed a line.
GSK cuts jobs, pulls HQ out of Phila.
As part of a restructuring that will eliminate 1,800 U.S. sales jobs, GlaxoSmithKline said it would designate its facilities in Research Triangle Park, N.C., as the single operational headquarters for the United States.
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/business/20081106_GSK_cuts_jobs__pulls_HQ_out_of_Phila.html
From MW;
“Bank of England issues stunning 1.5 percentage point rate cut”
LONDON (MarketWatch) — The Bank of England slashed its key rate to 3% from 4.5% Thursday, in an unexpectedly large move. Markets had largely factored in a cut as large as 75 basis points, while most economists had expected half-point cut. The move by the bank’s nine-member rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee follows a decision last month to join in a global round of rate cuts by major central banks. That decision saw the bank rate decline by 50 basis points, or half a percentage point, to 4.5%.
3……”In previous lean years, Wall Street banks justified large payouts by arguing that top employees would flee for higher-paying jobs. But with tens of thousands of Wall Street jobs disappearing, that argument may no longer hold. “Where are people going to go?” one senior banking executive asked.”
LMAO
That 401-k change is likely to happen. There’s probably not as much Wall Street money to combat against it and Obama and friends have a “mandate”.
“Bank of England issues stunning 1.5 percentage point rate cut”
Holy Cow!
[1],
Credit Suisse becomes the new GS.
http://winecountryandhorses.com/blog/2008/10/17/sonoma-county-real-estate-market-stats-october-2008/
Sonoma R/E – similar to what we see here in the Valley..
“The market needs to digest the inventory at the lower end to achieve some stability. There are amazing bargains out there for first time buyers and investors.”
Cindy [9],
Argentina?
(22) BC – Totally – some of the blog posts I’ve pulled up reference Argentina. Just plug in George Miller and Jim McDermott.
Re 9,
Those clowns don’t care about increasing the savings rate. They care about getting access to the last untapped source of funds in this country so they can spend it on all sorts of crazy @ss stuff. If they wanted to increase savings they’d do away with the tax on interest income and get Bergabe to raise rates.
Seriously, if the option is taking a tax hit to get my 401-k money or have these douchebags taking it over I’ll take the tax hit and ship it off to Schiff.
BC – I’m not one to reference blog posts but check it out for yourself. These guys fly with this, and the 401k monthly dollar-cost-averaging stops – What happens to the market?
What was the forecast last year by our commercial re expert? Can’t happen in the top financial centers of the world? Then again, he claimed Bear was hiring.
“Developments have fallen by more than half in a year, from 46 this time last year to just 17 in the past six months. But a report today warns that London is still facing a massive oversupply of empty office space in the next few years.”
“There is already about 15m sq ft of office space lying empty in central London, and vacancy rates in parts of the capital such as the City are set to rocket as banks and other financial institutions look to reduce staff and freeze relocation plans.”
“The impact of the global credit crisis on the financial services sector means rents in the City of London are already tumbling -they have fallen to about £57 per sq ft from a peak of £65 per sq ft last summer.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ee4d93ec-aba4-11dd-b9e1-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
(24) HEHEHE – Exactly – these guys are playing with fire.
He/Cindy,
They are playing with a keg of dynamite. I’ll do the same, tax it and bye-bye, off to the mines.
http://www.investmentnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081012/REG/310139971
HEHEHE – BC – Here’s an article…
“No legislative proposals have been introduced and Congress is out of session until next year.”
Market futures look bad off of the ECB cut. Just thought I would let you all know :P
we have some ron paul fans here, so here you go:
“When the meeting starts on November 15 for the new monetary system , this could be the beginning of the end of what we see of what’s left of our national sovereignty… I think the fact that the markets are relatively calm right now, and that the dollar has not totally crashed, is all being orchestrated by the central banks… The message is out that the dollar is doomed, they can’t keep doing it.
“This is on the business station news now, it’s not just your radio show and others talking about it. I was watching a business station yesterday and Joseph Stiglitz [the most cited economist in the world] was on. He was on very much bragging about this thing, about a new world reserve currency and world regulations – that mean’s government – and it looks like it’s coming rather rapidly right now…
I think it’s going to be the announcement of a new monetary order…”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqN2EKuXX2g
Re #10 Costco – I heard this morning on Bloomberg radio that not only is retail down perhaps 10% across the board but people are actually cleaning out their closets of all of the crap they bought and are returning it.
I would surmise that return polcies are going to change fast, so if you have stuff to dump better do it now.
Do these guys think we are insane? That we would just sit back and let them drop our money into some sort of black hole?
So the worry is, the numbers will get so bad, that folks will see a roll-back to August numbers as a “good” thing…
cindy
yes.
most people do not question. if their candidate or party says its good for them it must be.
you represent the exception, not the rule.
cindy,
by the time people figure out they have been robbed it will be way to late.
shock capitalism….. highly effective
Sean,
Heard the same report today on retail as well. It does indeed appear that Xmas is canceled in 2008.
Cindy,
They huckstered a generation of people on the social security program so I guess they think they can go to that well one more time. Why would anybody under the age 40 expect to get anything from this “retirement plan” when they know Social Security is nearly insolvent and they aren’t getting anything from Social Security?
I would think all the “retirement money” of course goes into the general account and then “poof” disappears down all the rat holes just like everyone’s Social Security money.
BC (16)-
Not surprising at all. They need to catch up in the race to the bottom.
Continuing unemployment claims off the charts.
Wait ’til tomorrow’s report. I think there’s a good chance that it will be falsified more than usual.
vodka (31)-
If they come up with a new world currency, I think they should call it the clusterf*^k.
“House Democrats contemplate abolishing 401(k) tax breaks”
This is ludicrous. When savings should be encouraged, our wonderful and brilliant leaders are doing everything in their power to deter it. If the fees that 401K managers receive are to high, then force the Fidelity’s and Tiaa-Cref’s to lower them. To suggest that 401Ks should be abolished because the fees are too high is absolutely pathetic. It’s bad enough that pensions are being moved into hedge funds and my peers are all getting out of equities and moving into cash when the complete opposite should be occurring. My lord, the need of immediate gratification of the populace is astounding.
Short looks like it may become the new long.
I think we’ll be enjoying a nice string of bi- and Frank-free days here…
Wouldn’t that be nice Clot. For their sake, I hope they haven’t been putting their money where their mouths are.
My friend who lost her job at GS yesterday is single late thirties and well off. Has lawn service, gets her hair done in a fancy place, her nails done in another fancy place, leased an expensive German Car. Bought meals ten times a week plus starbucks five times a week in NYC. Went on vacations and out to dinner and bought nice clothes. She basically did the 401k and had the house but the cash that came in from GS just went right out the door and paid the salaries of the nail person, lawn person, travel agent, mercedes sales agent etc. She is in 100% cut mode. So all those people woke up to one less customer. But 3,200 people got let go at GS. Even better GS canceled it big IB conference in NYC next month where a few hundred people were coming. That is around 1,000 hotel rooms now empty and the forget about the T&E that would have been spent. The young wall street fools who did not save their money for a rainy day and spent it in good times are out of work but the little guys who made a living off providing them services will be crushed.
Clot [39],
Are you saying that there is some doubt regarding bls #’s, sorry bs #’s, pertaining to birth/death?
Well for the last 8 months (Feb-Sep) bls has shown an increasing # of construction jobs via b/d.
Chart from Mish;
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SRK2gvh96qI/AAAAAAAADsE/ILrgwLyN4GY/s1600-h/adp-2008-10-construction.png
“Let us remember that if this financial crisis taught us anything, it’s that we cannot have a thriving Wall Street while Main Street suffers.”
Well, so much for a thriving Wall Street….
There better be no way this 401 crap gets oked – no way…
“Well for the last 8 months (Feb-Sep) bls has shown an increasing # of construction jobs via b/d.”
Those numbers are accurate if you are willing to count all those people who are digging themselves into financial holes that they can’t escape from as construction workers.
John,
Is she attractive? Does she need a broad shoulder to cry on?
John [44],
Sorry to see them go. They have engineered many great short opportunities.
Stu (41)-
This will be the final step in the plunger-handle s@d^mization of the middle class.
The cult of personality will be stoked from now until 1/20. Then, the blitzkrieg on what little tangible net worth of the public remains will be unleashed.
I was really hoping to stop shorting at some time in ’09. A couple of weeks ago, I even started tiny positions in BUD, MCD, PG, GIS. However, the only positions I feel compelled to average down remain short ones (and ultra-short).
We are solidly in the endtimes now.
Convert those hotel rooms into condos.
Cindy,
After the ban on financial short selling, allowing IBs to become CBs, direct fed financing of bank takeovers to avoid the smaller banks from looking like FDIC takeovers and the election of Goldman and Bear execs to powerful financial positions in our fed government, I wouldn’t put anything past them.
stu (43)-
For my sake, I hope they’ve been laying it on.
And, I suspect I’m right…unless, of course, they are just basement-dwelling, shut-in trolls.
481,000 people applied for first-time unemployment benefits last week, more than expected, the government said
Clot,
My only two longs are VZ and JNJ and they are small. Both are doing surprisingly well. Got real lucky with my VZ, but always expected JNJ to weather the storm. I was so close to pulling the trigger on more SRS at 108 on Tuesday that it is absolutely killing me. No gain, no pain I guess.
As much as I am aligned with your views, I really hope that all of your eggs are not in the same basket. Greed will kill you both long and short. Don’t forget to capture your gains on the way to Armageddon. Perhaps our next GTG will be somewhere in the outskirts of Nicoya?
Clot [53],
One positive; great contra indicators.
re: #16 – U.K. – There is always a silver lining.
My Uncle owns quite a large contrating company in London, he was in town last week, said that things are dire business won’t be coming back for a long time. He is going to close up shop and retire soon. His daughter who runs the business now is marrying a guy who owns a good size downtown London constuction business, employs a few hundred workers. Business is dead, they are laying off everyone.
Good news is they are having their wedding reception at Dromoland Castle in Ireland, heard they got quite a discount.I will be going for sure, the west coast Irish are loads of fun and considering it is already a depresion over there I sould be able to have a decent vacation without it costing an arm and a leg, and with the depression and all I will have a great time catching up on my singing espescially Irish fight songs.
http://www.nicoyapeninsula.com/gulf/
Sean [57],
Sounds like a great trip. Can you invite a guest?
There you guys go with the Costa Rica thing again.
I know, I know – I’m always way too optimistic BUT – There’s no way these guys pull off some rape of 401k plans. Folks would freak.
It is all they have to fight the “there ain’t no SS left” problem.
stu/clot, are you guys still holding SRS/SKF? watch it out today.
Stu (55)-
My marching orders have always been: tight stops (on the way up AND down).
I am loaded up. I am not diversified. I have been this way for exactly a year now. So far, so good. Until something changes, I’m milking the gambit until such time as it stops working.
Disclaimer: I have the central nervous system of an old cow.
cindy, thanks for you education comments on the previous threads…you are trooper! Teachers are expected to be raising kids today..
I can’t stand the crappy rental home I have been renting since a few months ago, after moving from a big new home that I finally sold a couple of months ago after it became necessary to move to another town with much better schools for my kids. I know that it’s probably a smart move to just suffer in the rental longer, until it’s clear that home prices are at or near the bottom, before buying another home in the new town, but we’re really going crazy because we chose a very small, very old, in poor shape, home to rent (to get a cheaper monthly rent, and because there weren’t many choices at the time we needed it to get in before the school year). We could move to a more expensive, nicer rental, but moving again, an extra time, is really a huge hassle for us, a lot of stress and a lot of work; and also I question paying a higher rent rather than just saving that little extra for the subsequent home purchase. Psychologically/emotionally, we absolutely hate not owning a home, I guess much worse because we had owned such a nice home before. We look at the listings every day and go to open houses every weekend, and there are a few homes we like, but all seem so overpriced still, we have made some lowball offers which we base on 25-to-30 percent off peak values, and they always were outright rejected, and we have a lot of fear about subsequent price decline….but on the other hand we are so incredibly impatient to buy so that we can move on with our lives, and feel settled where we will be for probably at least 10 years. What does everyone think about, if we can’t stand waiting much longer, when would be the ideal time to go forward with buying? This winter? This spring? Or is it absolutely crazy and we should just suffer and wait it out as renters for another year if necessary? We need to buy in Mountain Lakes — where the inventory is actually much lower now than a year ago (I think), since a lot of homes got pulled off the market after just sitting forever at their too high asking prices……
Clot [62],
When you are right, put the pedal to the medal, then protect yourself. Ride the trend.
#39 Clot: Unemployment, anf Ford and GM’s 3rd quarter results.
(63) Thanks House. Education gets a bad rap sometimes. We are trying to keep up with changing needs.
She is insanely smoking hot with a perfect bod. But she has a BF who pulls down seven figures so she has a shoulder and a wallet to lean on. Trouble is now she may have to earn her money the old fashioned way by marrying it.
HEHEHE Says:
November 6th, 2008 at 8:40 am
John,
Is she attractive? Does she need a broad shoulder to cry on?
i thought the hope and change would come after election. we have the same old same old.
re: #59 BC Bob – Guests must be musical and have the genetic ability to drink any Polak under the table, there actually will be a few Poles at this wedding seems they invaded Ireland during the Housing bubble. (No offense to anyone I hope).
#57 Sean: I Watching RTE News the other day. They were doing a story on a massive auction of construction equipment in Kilkenny, acres and acres of equipment.
Massive diggers that were purchased at the height of the bomm for 350 to 400 euros were selling for 100 euros. The bidders were all Russians and Chinese.
Many of the Poles and Baltic peoples who had come during the boom, are going home.
You are right about the west, it is the last authentic part of the country left.
Sean [70],
I’ll try my best to keep up with them. Music? I’ll just bring some Bruce cd’s.
Problem is that the banks are too punitive….miss a payment….get hit with the default rate…..this ‘business model’ has been very effective in the past….but once people decide they would rather eat than pay unsecured debt…..well….you know the rest.
67…..Education is too bloated with admin people making 2x teachers salary and contributing nothing to the education of children….facilities are either over the top nice or suck wind….education deserves the rap it gets, teachers…not so much. They are usually well meaning, not especially the sharpest tools in the shed…but usually OK at what they do.
Stu Says:
November 6th, 2008 at 8:35 am
“House Democrats contemplate abolishing 401(k) tax breaks”
If the fees that 401K managers receive are to high, then force the Fidelity’s and Tiaa-Cref’s to lower them. To suggest that 401Ks should be abolished because the fees are too high is absolutely pathetic.
Stu: If you care about fees, the first place to go is after the insurance companies…..fat chance.
How is this one?
Client at age 63 wanted to continue her 403(b), the school board was dumped by Merrill Lynch, so they signed up two insurance companies who basically put everyone in annuities. This lady (now 66) is locked-up except for 15% of her money until 73. The M&E fees are 1.25% a year and all the mutual funds are at least fees of 1.25%. So these guys are collectively 2.50% to 3% off the top and provide no other services. No financial planning, consultation, or tax services.
This lady did ZERO wrong and got the cattle-prod anyway.
“judging from the amount of time that the regulars spend posting here…my guess is that most of you are not “outdoorsmen and women”…..just a ‘wild’ hunch here…..”
Blackberry, Treo, etc. Oh, my!
Bi:
I have 1/8th of my largest position left in SRS that I purchased at 80 over a year ago. Was mildly upset that I didn’t sell all of it on the way up to 205 with the rest of my shares about 3 or 4 weeks ago. On the plus side, these shares are acting as a hedge against losses in my 401K which I went 50% equities/50% bonds from a 100% bonds position when DJIA was at 8300 about 7 days ago. As a hedge, getting the 2X inverse is beautiful thing as I only risk 1/2 the cash to get double the protection. On the bright side, it’s nice to have a short position so my Ameritrade totals are green whenever I look at them. On the flip side, at 6:30pm when my 401K prices update, whatever I seem to make in SRS I give back in my 401K. In these volatile markets, I’m happy to break even after my best year ever.
Happy days!
Essex Says:
November 6th, 2008 at 9:21 am
67…..Education is too bloated with admin people making 2x teachers salary and contributing nothing to the education of children
——————
pardon my ignorance, but why exactly is that: Are there like unbelievably stringent requirements for admin (phd, etc.). Why is the system giving them such a big premium over teachers?
thanks
(75) Chicago – Yikes! My financial advisor is worth his weight in gold.
ChiFi (75):
“This lady did ZERO wrong and got the cattle-prod anyway.”
When I was investigating variable annuities about 4 years ago, I couldn’t believe the silliness of these products. These things should really be made illegal. It’s bad enough how much the insurance companies take over the life of the annuity, but the way they make it impossible for you to leave over the first 5-10 years makes predatory lending look tame.
You know that set of friends of ours that are underwater in Red Bank? They purchased life insurance on their child. I expect their gloomy story will make the front page of the Asbury Park Press some time in the next two years.
kodiak (64)-
Hang on a little longer. Take a look at foreclosure stats in Mtn Lakes (sorry, I don’t have any, as it’s not my bailiwick). I have a colleague there who advises that foreclosures have been- and will be- surprisingly high. Lots of Alt-A and too much leverage (which describes a lot of tony Morris Co. towns).
Even though you have a 10-year window, gutting it out even as little as six more months may make a big difference for you.
Perhaps you should enlist Grim as your agent. I think he can cover that area.
Chi (75)-
That should be illegal. Of course, it is sold to us as yet another part of the “American Dream”. Pretty soon, “comfortable retirement” will mean that a family member will be allowed to come drag your corpse out of WalMart when you drop, dead in your tracks, in your blue smiley-face smock.
Funny how pursuit of the American Dream is turning us into 300 lb. human garbage cans with flat affects, no motivation and no discernible electrical activity above the brain stem.
Stu,
This works for me:
http://www.nicoyapeninsula.com/gulf/img/island-jungle.jpg
GM announces suspension of product development for all future models.
GM cash burn “higher than expected”.
Should be quite a beg-a-thon they have with Pelosi today.
Duck (78)-
Haven’t you heard? A PhD is only a self-addressed, stamped envelope away from being yours:
“Are there like unbelievably stringent requirements for admin (phd, etc.). Why is the system giving them such a big premium over teachers?”
[15] DL
Wow. That is a body blow to Philadelphia. Mrs. Deplume used to be there, and she bolted about 9 months ago for a NJ biotech. At the time, we wondered if giving up the stability of the big mother ship was worthwhile though the growth opportunities were better in the new job (pay better here, but with NJ taxes and costs, that’s a wash).
Guess we know the answer to that now.
Convert those hotel rooms into condos.
Already a glut of hotel rooms in the area. Building in this sector boomed.
Plume (87)-
Didn’t Philly basically give away the candy store to lure in GSK?
Perhaps the time has come for some folks to buy assets from GM and Ford and establish a brand new car company. Rather than try to salvage existing operations, products, etc., perhaps it is time to begin anew.
Given the huge role the auto manufacturers have inthe economy nand the long memory of how crucial they were in WWII for war production, it is hard to see FedCo allowing the productive capacity vaporize. That said, how does one save such gangrenous corpses? If one cuts off all that is rotten, one ends up with the Black Knight — “Come back and I’ll bite yer kneecaps,” or something like that.
GM:
Sure, cut development. THAT should make you more competitive.
If things are so bloody dire, they would be better off making 4-5 models that are REALLY good, than offering a plethora of less-than-killer cars.
shore (90)-
Perhaps it is time to either give Michigan to Canada or turn it into a fenced penal colony.
Shore (91)-
The new definition of American success is based on how good you are at turning your company into a bankruptcy/bailout vehicle.
LVS enters the zombie zone.
“Didn’t Philly basically give away the candy store to lure in GSK?”
This is such a losing process, the whole idea of offering incentives for relocating. It seems like the companies hardly ever meet their end of the bargain and are afterward forever looking for the next best deal. I suspect that if one does not have an overall business-friendly environment, one can make all the concessions, offer all the incentives one can, and it wil do little to bolster one’s economy.
And Kerkorian pulled out of Detroit to put that capital into gaming?
Hoo boy.
(81) Thanks, Clot, for your advice. I really appreciate it. I’ll hang on a little longer. I have been working with an agent that I’m o.k. with, who understands my needs and my point of view and seems to be looking out for my interests as far as I can tell, but if that changes, I think I actually WILL see if I can replace him with Grim.
Speaking of autos:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27558718
“If things are so bloody dire, they would be better off making 4-5 models that are REALLY good, than offering a plethora of less-than-killer cars.”
Considering the economy, perhaps this model might turn them around. I know that Kettle1 would certainly be a customer.
http://tinyurl.com/FranksNextCar
Clot,
We better give those auto execs huge taxpayer-funded bonuses otherwise we may use their talent.
Shore (95)-
I’m from America’s capital of municipal giveaways, Memphis.
It has broken that city, probably permanently.
Cindy – Target’s sales have fallen.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a77iyCMpJzH0&refer=home
kodiak (97)-
Two questions for your current agent:
1. Does he do short sales (as in, understand the process from the buyer side)?
2. When was his last closing?
If he’s starving- and ignorant of the only money-making process that remains in residential RE- he ain’t looking out for you.
AC/DC and High School Musical? What a country:
http://www.reuters.com/article/entertainmentNews/idUSTRE4A50Z320081106
Clot (101):
“I’m from America’s capital of municipal giveaways, Memphis.
It has broken that city, probably permanently.”
But may have served to improve their bbq skills.
The best pulled pork sandwich I have ever devoured was at the Memphis airport when transferring on a business trip to Huntsville AL.
http://www.jaunted.com/story/2006/7/6/11501/21532/travel/Memphis%3A+Jim+Neely%27s+Interstate+BBQ
Shore:
Angus looks terrible.
Yang reminds me of the woman who rejects a date to the prom because she has som mistaken belief that theree is some better offer out there someplace. Later, when all the “good dates” are taken and she is left without a date, she wants the original date to ask again. In fact, it sounds like some of the “sellers” we have encountered these past months.
Like the renewed offer will ever come as close as the original one.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/11/06/yang_calls_microsoft_yahoo/
Every time I visit, I always scarf down an Interstate BBQ before I hit the luggage carousel.
shore (107)-
Look at his hockey team. Tells you everything you need to know.
Sex, and drugs, and Rock & Roll, don’t ya know. It worked well for Bon Scott.
shore- Whoops. Wrong Yang. Or Wang. Whatever.
Clot,
Yang owns a hockey club?
Got him mixed up with the CA guy.
Now that the election is over, attention is again focused on the weakened economy. October non-manufacturing ISM fell below 50, which is a recessionary reading. The ADP payroll survey was negative (-157K) ahead of the jobs creation report tomorrow. With the equity market down, Treasuries rallied. Munis followed suit, with yields sharply lower on the short end through 6 years, and minimally lower on the long end. The tax-exempt market continues to get through the new issue market with apparent ease and there is a better tone this morning.
For GM and Ford:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqwFfGgLPzM&feature=related
Shore Guy (107):
Yang should be thrown out the door by 12 pm EST. What a total loser. Maybe Yahoo can go to the TARP for a little more money for the shareholders.
Re: #75 – I have heard Retirement plan litigation is becoming big this year.
I always thought there were not nearly enough bagpipes used in Rock.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1iR2Wi3u5o&feature=related
#114 John:Barclays stated the other day that they remain committed to the Municipal business (part of the Fixed Income division that they purchased from Lehman).
It has been my past experience that any time a firm publicly states they are committed to the municipal basis, measn they are going to close it.
Sean,
It is a good time to have an ERISA practice.
If I were in Steve Ballmer’s shoes, I would offer Yahoo $10. It is $4 less than the current price but about $10 more than Yahoo will be worth next year.
I don’t know, at Smith Barney and Fidelity the Muni bond retail demand has really picked up in the last two weeks. Also bids and asks are working again so liquidity is flowing that way. It is safe to say rates will be low for at least 5 years and taxes will be high for the next eight years. 1-8 year GO munis have pretty good demand. Bottom line if a market is working and firm is making money in it they will keep muni desk open. With so many players out of the game this year and a ton of new muni bonds in a log jam ready to be issued I can’t see how Barclays can afford to leave the business in the next year or two.
Yang reminds me of those sellers who think their house is worth more then the market is willing to pay for it..
sucker.
I’m always way too optimistic BUT – There’s no way these guys pull off some rape of 401k plans.
I don’t know. Big labor (a big dem constituency) doesn’t like 401(k)s. They want traditional employer funded defined pension plans. With everyone’s 401(k) in the sh-tter, they may have the political capital to scrap the 401(k) and push employers back to traditional pensions. I don’t like this one bit. I want to manage my own account, but the truth is that most people have no idea what they are doing.
these capitalist pigs, who cheat workers, should be jailed.
http://www.wthr.com/global/story.asp?s=9299280
“Several hundred people are still waiting to get their pay.. ”
“The line was long and the crowd was angry at times. I want my money today! It’s my money. I want it right now!” yelled one former..”
RentingNJ:
It all smacks of desperation to me. Even the no penalty withdrawal that O recently suggested. Why is everyone in a rush to close accounts when their values are in the toilet. This is the time that people should scrape by and be encouraged to load as much in to the accounts as is possible. Merely discussing the prospect of these accounts losing their pretax advantages works against businesses who need the cash as contributors are less likely to contribute.
Is the entire federal government as clueless as Frank?
Please don’t answer this question.
Why timing will be everything, and why it doesn’t make sense to buy a house right now:
“Within the next year, Seiberg said the chances have improved for passage of mortgage bankruptcy reform since it is supported by Obama and many in the newly enlarged Democratic majority in the House and Senate.
The measure would allow bankruptcy judges to reduce the mortgage principal or interest on a bankruptcy filer’s primary residence. Currently judges may only do so for second homes and commercial properties.
Proponents say such a change would encourage lenders to modify more loans for troubled borrowers before they file for bankruptcy rather than risk a judge’s intervention. Opponents say the change could cause a rise in interest rates because mortgage investors would price in the risk of new loan terms. . . .
And within the next two years, lawmakers are expected to pursue regulatory restructuring of the banking and finance industries, with Democrats likely to resurrect their proposals for federal laws governing mortgage underwriting. Such bills would require that lenders “have a reasonable belief” that the borrowers they loan money to can afford the loans, Seiberg said. And under the legislation mortgage securitizers would be held liable if they don’t hold lenders feet to the fire on that.”
These measures, if passed, will cause mortgage rates to spike since there will be a far higher degree of risk priced in. Further, with third party liability for securitized loan purchasers (assuming anyone will still be in this business), rating agencies may refuse to rate the tranches, thus they will be even more unsaleable than they are now. With loans unable to move off the bank’s books, mortgage credit will dry up, and the rates will stay high (and the deficit keeping 30 year rates up won’t help).
And because mortgage rates will go up and stay up, housing sales prices, and therefore values, will have to come down.
And this isn’t counterintuitive–dems want housing values to be lower so that they are affordable. Best part is that they get to take a part of your house value but there is no claim for a “taking” possible.
78….Just the ol’ business hierarchy model that is completely inapplicable to Schools.
Too many little districts….too many managers….no ‘revenue’ creation….
Just a flawed model that rewards longevity over competence.
Jamil,
I thought we were done with this crap. Please go to the drudge report or tell it to Zogby.
[120] shore
yes it is.
#122 John: You coudl be right, but history shows otherwise. Spread on new issue Munis have dropped dramatically over the last 20+ years. ack in the day spreads were 20/25$ a bond. Today 20/20 year matys with a spread of an 1/8.
For many firm it was always a good revenue stream for the firm (if done right) howver, it always seemed to take a hit.
Many feel the ROI could be higher if the resources were deployed elsewhere, however, in this environmment steady profitable (even if low) revenue streams makes sense.
Time will tell.
Gag me with an open-house brochure. if my “even more” they mean a serious threat of flooding then, yea, it as even more.
“This Home Has It All–Maybe Even More!”
42 VILLAGE RD
SEA BRIGHT
i am costco’s #1 fan. i love that place. im there twice a month. love the pizza, too. the one in bucks county even sells churros.
i used to go early saturday or sunday mornings … but i went around 2 one afternoon and i couldn’t get enough of the awesome free food samples.
costco > wal-mart
http://tours.tourfactory.com/tours/sizetour.asp?frame=sReferer%3Drealtor%2Ecom%26t%3D425839%26
Speaking of lipstick on pigs. This thing is WAY over improved.
SHore guy,
You seem to have some pretty deep political contacts.
WHat is the take on energy issues. Are the big dogs really aware of the looming energy crisis? what level of understanding do they have if any? If they do not have any real awareness then what is the roadblock?
“This condo has it all- from open floor plan to super location, steps away from the Quay, Gaiter’s, and FairBanks motel”
How funny. A “feature, part of having “it all,” is proximity to a little shore motel?
re; #131 – Shore Guy that is sacred ground, what was the name of the bar owned by the Jenks family that used to be there?
#44
“The young wall street fools who did not save their money for a rainy day and spent it in good times are out of work but the little guys who made a living off providing them services will be crushed.”
This is a good thing. It’s the only way we get back to putting people in jobs of producing real wealth. The service sector is a drag on our economy and we need to crush it.
[89] clot
Don’t know if they got a KOZ allocation, like the folks in Cira Centre did (and two law firms got huge tax breaks for moving down the street, which cheesed off a lot of people). GSK has been there for a long time, and has facilities all over that area; Mrs. Deplume says it is unlikely that they could simply pull up stakes there anytime soon. This is more of a prestige thing since gsk was co-HQ’ed in the US ever since the glaxo-skb merger, and Philly was SKB’s home for decades, if not centuries.
Further, it could be a tax thing since it means less “income” is earned at that facility and subject to Philly’s famously business friendly taxes (two years ago, Lincoln Financial moved its CEO’s office from Philly to Radnor, saving the execs millions in taxes).
Finally, it will be easier to deal with the PETA types in NC than in Philly. In NC, PETA stands for People Eating Tasty Animals.
#29
so the plan is for elimination of investment choice and MANDATORY contribution of 5% of your salary each year. This is a TAX, not a savings plan.
Hey, Been watching from the sidelines and reading this blog for almost 2 years. Haven’t seen any of those awesome charts you used to post monthly. I’d love to see where we stand lately. Thanks!
“When I was investigating variable annuities about 4 years ago, I couldn’t believe the silliness of these products. These things should really be made illegal. It’s bad enough how much the insurance companies take over the life of the annuity, but the way they make it impossible for you to leave over the first 5-10 years makes predatory lending look tame.”
What you talking about? They are Ben Stein’s favorite investment.
Social security was originally meant to keep people from starving or freezing when they become to old and frail to work. that was a good thing.
Now 401K’s and SS have become a political monster. For most people a low interest guaranteed benefit plan such as a government or corporate pension plan makes more sense (as long as the gov or corp is required to actually fund it with out playing defferal games).
Can we really expect the average joe who doesnt know how to manager a single paycheck to manage a long term investment?
Kettle,
I suspect the real issue is a desire not to move to a new energy source before using up existing inventory. It smacks of the same kind of mistakes we always seem to make when moving from one technology, underestimating the spped of the movement and believing we can manage the transition.
Kodak is a great example of this. They had CCDs and were all set to move to digital imaging back in the 80s but, folks knew that to do so kills silver halide photography and that was their cash cow. So, first they tried that awful disk camera and then the APS mess. Then, once they had given up their digital lead, they thought they had 20 years before digital overtook film and that it would be a nice seamless transition, two straight lines on a graph.
Once we start seriously moving to alternative energy, we are gouing to move so fast it will surprise everyone. The problem for the oil companies is that, after spending billions and billions on exploration (in essence building inventory), the demand for the inventory will plumet — there is only so much oil needed for nylon, fertilizer, etc.
I made the above comments without consulting any of the experts I know but, based on what I have seen and heard in the past, I suspect it is fairly accurate.
“MANDATORY contribution of 5% of your salary each year”
And, is there a requirement for a 5% employer match?
“What you talking about? They are Ben Stein’s favorite investment.”
He collects fees managing them?
#64
“What does everyone think about, if we can’t stand waiting much longer, when would be the ideal time to go forward with buying? This winter? This spring? Or is it absolutely crazy and we should just suffer and wait it out as renters for another year if necessary?”
I say it is a personal choice and if you feel that renting is ruining your life, you should probably just go ahead and buy right now. Your choice of housing is mostly a consumption choice anyway (investment is secondary). You will probably be flushing some money down the toilet by buying now, but you can always look at that as discretionary spending. People buy depreciating assets all the time (cars, furniture, TVs, clothes) and it is not that big of a deal.
from last night….
# Clotpoll Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
Cindy (379)-
Not good? Is good, if you’re perpetuating endless war:
“Isolated children, who do not know how to communicate, and feel disdain toward authority figures…not good.”
Combat-ready at the age of 16. You can take a continent with enough soldiers like this.
And who come combat ready with thousands of hours of gaming training.
Clott,
A one point during college i was playing 1st person shooters for about 40 hrs per week on top of everything else.
The scary thing is i noticed myself starting to asses targets, positions of cover, and lines of assault just walking around town or sitting in class.
These actions and other such as planning evac routes and mentally planning which weapon would be more effective (weapon in the game) was becoming “muscle memory”.
I may have done very well in iraq at that point.
One day walking through a parking garage i heard a loud clatter and my first unconscious thought was to fire off a couple 12 gauge rounds and then whip out the pulse rifle as i would move for cover behind a cement pillar.
Of course i wasn’t running around with either of those (plus the pulse rifle doesnt actually exist) and didn’t actually react in any way. But the unconscious reaction made me decide it was time to cut back……
Recovering gamer, haven played in a very long time. It was good training though if you spent enough time on it.
Shore,
SO do they ignore the current data that shows we will rapidly transit form status quo to a rapid decline in which development of alternatives will be very disruptive, or do the not understand? It sounds like the classic linear thought applied to an exponential system problem.
Kettle,
I am with you 100%. Started with Doom, moved to Duke Nukem and then right after college I got hooked on Unreal Tournament online and played it every night till 3-4am and all weekend (my GF was living out of town at the time). I still have dreams about that glue gun and rocket launcher a couple times a month. Once I got a house and setup my office in the basement perfectly for online gaming I suddenly lost interest (and time). Funny how life works.
man, that 401k s*it has me pissed. what a joke this country is becoming.
im getting to the point where i almost would rather risk trying to stash the $ offshore instead of getting raped anally.
stu/clot/bc – are any of you guys pumping money into the stock market now?
#146 skeptic;People buy depreciating assets all the time (cars, furniture, TVs, clothes) and it is not that big of a deal.
It is one thing to buy a depreciating TV or car, quite anoterh to buy a depreciating house. the long term ramifiactions can be incredibly significant.
No offense to the original poster, but he/she is thinking emotionally, which is never good when purchasing a house.
I understand the difficulty in seperating emotion feom the purchase, but if done, I belive the outcome is a better decesion.
At this stage waiting another 6 to 12 months to buy a hosue is IMO ano brainer. The buzz of real estate is gone, nobody I know is bragging any more about house prices. In fact many current owners do not even want to talk about it. Waiting 6 to 12 short months seems to me to be a no brainer.
Amit Seru
Assistant professor of finance Amit Seru discussed “Securitization, Screening and Failure of Default Models to Predict Default,” at the third of four lunchtime lectures on the financial crisis sponsored by the Initiative on Global Markets, November 4.
http://www.chicagogsb.edu/email/chicago_on/creditCrisis.aspx
By the Doug Diamond is an absolute loon and an average speaker, but he is off-the-charts in terms of his insights and candor.
Douglas Diamond, Merton H. Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, discussed “The Current Financial Crisis, Other Recent Crises, and the Role of Short-term Debt,” at the second of four weekly lectures on the credit crisis hosted by the Initiative on Global Markets, October 28.
#142
“Social security was originally meant to keep people from starving or freezing when they become to old and frail to work. that was a good thing.
Now 401K’s and SS have become a political monster. For most people a low interest guaranteed benefit plan such as a government or corporate pension plan makes more sense (as long as the gov or corp is required to actually fund it with out playing defferal games).”
kettle– how this would work in practice would be yet another wealth redistribution scheme. like soc security but with no cap. but hey we are going to uncap soc security so it will just be doubling down in that direction.
Mike
i was a half-life junkie ( and Team Fortress). beating someone to death with the crowbar while they were armed with a pulse rifle was so very satisfying….. The remote mines were a blast as well. got pretty good setting up booby traps!
#78 A PhD is no guarantee of either intelligence or competence. It is often just a mark of how much BS one can get thru. Remember, a BS stands for BullStuff, an MS is More Stuff and a PhD stands for Piled Higher and Deeper. And yes, the education bureaucracies are bloated beyond belief – you’ve got too many school systems and too many administrators.
Clot Did You See This?!?!?!
3X Exchange-Traded Funds
Now, along comes an even more aggressive ETF: Triple upside and downside exposure. I have no opinion of these, as I have not really worked out the usages of this. It does seem a bit excessive, and my friend Paul absolutely hates them.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/3x-exchange-traded-funds/
I by no means advocate this type of casino investing. I am a moron. I have no financial acumen.
“stu/clot/bc – are any of you guys pumping money into the stock market now?”
Yikes,
Currently, only selling sucker rallies.
Skep,
i dont have the answer to the SS and retirement mess, but the current system seems to be what we DO NOT want to emulate
#151
3b– Obviously I totally agree that financially it is a dumb idea to buy right now. Just saying that sometimes other considerations trump finances. I personally don’t see why owning should make such a difference in one’s life, but if it does for this person, I think it is fine for him/her to admit it and accept the consequences.
the solution to the retirement mess is don’t retire.
Bush said Wall St. got Drunk.
http://dealbreaker.com/2008/11/evening-wrap-absence-of-recove.php#more
skep 161
,
try to tell that to the AARP. And consider the implications for the larger job market. It will be a transition and some will be left in the cold
we were promised change and soon all we will have is a little change in our wallets.
Could someone please help me with a sale price on 323 Rolling Rock in Mountainside (Union County)? I have looked online at the Union County site, and they have a notice of settlement, but no Deed, and the Deed seems to be the only thing that lists a sale price.
Does the sales price have to be reported to the county? Who is obligated to do that? Seller/Buyer/Agent? Feed my paranoia someone.
GM will record a massive insane large loss on Friday that will be announced at same time as some new massive insane large govt. bail out and stock will rise on Friday. Now that is Insane.
GM and Chrysler are dead.
The only question is are they allowed to die a peaceful death now, in between the old and new presidents when the blame isnt place on either. Or the government can keep them on life support, a comma patient in a permanent vegetative state , just to be unplugged at a later date.
what I have a problem with is this baby boomer attitude of entitlement. I worked for X many years therefore I deserve to take the next 15 to 20 off as a vacation, regardless of whether I personally prepared to do this. the modern idea of retirement has no equivalent in human history. I have no problem helping people who are too sick to work, but the idea that we must at all cost preserve this massive wealth transfer to a largely healthy and capable elderly population is amazing.
skeptic,
I think any large society will need some sort of “redistribution” if only to help the poorest. This is generally in everyone’s benefit.
The hard part comes in when you try to draw the line in the sand. if food stamps are a good thing, then why isnt X.
Yikes,
Went half in in my 401K when DJIA was at 8300. Will try to exit anywhere above 10K for my reasons for going back in are no longer true. Otherwise, still way more short than I am long. Unless things worsen dramatically, I still think the DJIA trades in a range of 7,500 to 10,500 until housing bottoms. If anything, I think there is more downside than upside in the next 9 months, so at this moment I am positioned appropriately.
Of course, my long-term view is still positive and anything you buy now, will eventually be worth more. Even real estate fits this bill. The issue is how long will take to increase in value and will it increase faster than inflation and is there a carry cost.
Patience Yikes. I’ve been investing for 22 years. Have beaten the indexes every single year except during the tech bubble (but was not disappointed whatsoever by my gains then). If there was any advice I could pass on to a simpleton investor, it is wait to buy until panic hits, and then average in and wait some more. Sell on the way up, not at the top for you will never know when the top is in.
If you could make 10% this year, would you take it? Most people go to a blackjack table or a slot machine and get 10% in a matter of minutes. Those few who accept it and walk away just received an annualized return. Unfortunately, most are impatient and try to make it a 20% gain or more. When the house has the advantage, your probability of getting a 20% gain is more than twice as unlikely as it was for you to have received your 10% gain. I stick with my 10% gain and move on to something else. Investing is more about wealth management than most understand. Too many people shoot for the moon when the low hanging fruit is well within their reach.
Disclaimer: This message represents the official view of the voices in my head
Market is down almost another 4%.
Remove the almost from my prior message and replace it with over.
Skep 168,
I agree 100%. The political issue is that this 20 year vacation has been continually promised to the boomers for the last 30 years. They believe it is their right and they will fight to keep it.
In some ways it is a very cruel joke. They have been promised these benefits for decades and so many have not really planned to be able to provide fully for themselves base on that promise from the government.
On top of that there is the 800 lb gorilla in the room with the name of health care. The boomer generation is going to require massive amounts of it at a price they most likely cannot afford.
Market is looking like downhill skiing right now.
How about: Stimulous package (lets say automatic 30% motgage principle reduction) to any homewner who are late in payments and simultaneous rate cut to -1% ???
That would prop banking stocks and housing, as it will be seeing as no-lose
investment.
“so the plan is for elimination of investment choice and MANDATORY contribution of 5% of your salary each year. This is a TAX, not a savings plan.i>
Would this be a personal savings account type system (i.e. I get out what I put in) or would it be used to redistribute wealth?
This sounds like a disaster in the making; Social Security part 2. It’s just too tempting to raid these funds for short term spending.
Besides, now I put in 8% and get an employer match and get to manage my own fund. Now I’m going to put in 5% with no match and get stuck with a paltry 3% return? How is that supposed to help me?
italics off
GM ain’t dead, they made a huge mistake giving pensions, a decent wage and great medical plans to their employees. They must be punished for being nice but getting killed for being nice is not nice.
Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) offered $33 a share for Yahoo earlier this year, a price Yang spurned as undervaluing the company. The stock closed Wednesday at less than half that price at $13.92.
Why is he still alive – I would think some of major stockholders would have a juicy contract out on him.
More seriously – Lack of personal responsibility in particular by higher level management is killing this country’s economy.
I just say we shoot the unemployed and bury them in shallow graves
Kettle– as I stated the other day, the mentality in the USA is get it while you can and screw the guy behind you in line. But just like Detroit, I think this strategy is running out of gas. You cannot squeeze blood from a stone.
John Says:
November 6th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
GM ain’t dead, they made a huge mistake giving pensions, a decent wage and great medical plans to their employees. They must be punished for being nice but getting killed for being nice is not nice.
GM had unions, Unionized work-force is nto competitive in a GLOBAL MARKET, were they are trying to compete with Mexican workers making 0.5-3$/hour making the same GM cars.
GLobalization – is what is killing GM in it’s current form.
If you have 40 minutes, and drink enough coffee…this is awesome
chicagofinance Says:
November 6th, 2008 at 11:51 am
By the Doug Diamond is an absolute loon and an average speaker, but he is off-the-charts in terms of his insights and candor.
Douglas Diamond, Merton H. Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, discussed “The Current Financial Crisis, Other Recent Crises, and the Role of Short-term Debt,” at the second of four weekly lectures on the credit crisis hosted by the Initiative on Global Markets, October 28.
http://www.chicagogsb.edu/email/chicago_on/creditCrisis.aspx
Kind of makes you wonder if the run up before the election was an attempt to influence the election.
John,
What is nice about business? if you make poor business decision you deserve to go out of business….
Oh wait, i forgot we live in the USSA
Yes Al….and not really creating anything salable….and missing the SUV is Dead boat…..whoops. RIP
“I just say we shoot the unemployed and bury them in shallow graves”
Talk about demand destruction.
168/173 – Agreed.
One point though – the Boomers weren’t so much “promised” the 20 years of R and R so much as they have just come to expect it themselves.
From DB, SNL Bailout;
http://guestofaguest.com/finance/the-forbidden-snl-economic-bailout-skit/
Globalization is great for corporations but bad for everyone else.
Globalization is a race to the lowest common denominator. No american manufacturer is going to be able to compete with a manufacturer in china that does not have to follow environmental laws and can use what amounts to slave labor.
The only way to ‘globalize’ without dragging everyone down to the lowest level is to institute a set of required minimum global standards for things like environmental impact, worker rights and compensation etc.
“If you have 40 minutes, and drink enough coffee”
Chi,
Could we substitute a martini for the coffee?
“The Ghettos of Clifton”
Went to Clifton yesterday around 10PM to see my friends recently purchased overpriced POS and soak a beer. Parked my car in front of the house, didn’t think twice about it. I got the royal walkthrough and listen to rationalisations of why this was the one. I could stomach the 530K he paid but the $9,800 in taxes…. hell no.
Two hours later I’m walking to my car, I swing the door open and get it in and am absolutely stunned by the pile of broken glass on my passanger seat. It really took me a good ten seconds to process what just happened.
They cleaned out my GPS unit, suction cup and lighter adapter and all. First time in eleven years of driving. Having parked in Crown Heights, Harlem, Bronx, NYC, the alleys of Williamsburg and Newark without problems I was shocked to have been jacked in Clifton out of all the places.
This was a grab and go, had they got into the car they would have noticed the neatly mounted Valentine V1 next to my rearview mirror up by the headliner.
My friend had this “I just spent .5MM and apparently the hood isn’t as safe as I thought” look on his face when we were standing around waiting for the Police to file a report.
The sliver lining, if there is such a thing, is that I found OEM glass for same model and year in a yard upstate for $95 shipped.
Fawkin’ Clifton.
#131 could stomach the 530K he paid but the $9,800 in taxes…. hell no.
At that price he will be under water for years. I have found that when people justify over paying for a house, it s for their benefit not yours.
It is a way to justify to themselves why they HAD to do it, when deep down, they realize they made a mistake.
Fidelity to cut nearly 1,300 jobs
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/06/news/companies/fidelity_cuts.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008110612
I already miss George Bush
#192
3b,
I’ve talked with this person on numerous occasions during the last 16 months or so tyring to talk him out of buying.
Most on this board are better informed than friends and family members but there’s only so much hand holding and preaching one can do at some point you shut up and let people make their own decisions.
Worse off, the bloke recently left his gig and accepted a position as a construction manager with a state employer.
Yeah, I know!
kettle [189],
Are you promoting protectionism?
BC Bob Says:
November 6th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
“If you have 40 minutes, and drink enough coffee” Chi, Could we substitute a martini for the coffee?
Bost: It ends with a bang…some guy in the audience compliments Doug on the analysis and then asks “…would you like to take a shot at telling us where we are going?” Doug talks about the work a team of economists are performing to propose a solution, started by Ken French. Then he dryly says that it is a difficult problem, and the crowd laughs. Then he said that if it was a question on the mid-term, he’d get it wrong…..F— Hilarious!
191….probably out of work bankers. gangs of them.
Chi,
SDS be rocking, don’t u bother knocking
#195 zeiba:but there’s only so much hand holding and preaching.
Agreed.
“Kind of makes you wonder if the run up before the election was an attempt to influence the election.”
The cynic in me was wondering before the election whether there was some intervention to drive prices higher just so they would fall after O won. Was there ever any doubt he would? Of course, as soon as I had those thoughts I figured I was thinking in an unduely cynical manner. Now? Who knows. It could just be that people were intoxicated by the romantic idea of O sweeping away the Bush policies; now folks might be realizing the likely ramifications of those changes on people who have (soon to be had?) money.
Kettle,
About energy. Are you familiar with the movie Still Crazy? The opening line is “History shows that people behave rationally, once they have exhausted all other possibilities.” Time and time again, business has allowed short-term thinking to prevent proper planning for future eventualities. Why should the threat of disruptions in the future force energy companies to act in the nation’s long-term interests when there is lots of money to be made (and sunk costs to recover) in the short term?
I could stomach the 530K he paid but the $9,800 in taxes [in Clifton]…. hell no.
Have a friend who bought there at the peak in ’05 because he could “only afford” $400k. So, be bought a 2 bedroom POS cape with a driveway that he shares with his neighbor. He pays nearly $9k in taxes, for awful schools. He can’t afford to sell and can’t add on because his taxes would go up too much.
-413, do I hear -500? Actually, if the market closes down 1,500 points this week, it would probably strengthen Os hand.
I got my GPS jacked right in front of my office window in Union about a year ago. It never stays in the car anymore. Not even for a minute. Sad thing is that I set up the Garmin lock which renders the GPS useless to anyone but me. The whole theft was caught on tape, but it was not worth the 5.0’s time to investigate apparently.
Moral of the story. GPS systems need to stay on your body whenever you leave your car regardless of what town you are in. Same GPS thing happened to my neighbor a couple months ago in Montclair too.
chi [197],
I’ll have to watch it tonight.
Renting,
Sure. But it sounds like sour grapes to me. I know the truth, you just envy his “Pride in ownership.”
Fess up. You wish you were underwater with a huge tax bill hanging around your shoulder like a millstone, don’t you? It might be an uncomfortable short-term problem but, you would at least own a piece of the American Dream.
You guys are all crazy thinking this market drop has anything to do with the election. When the Dow hit 7700 last month and bounced up to 9500, what did you all attribute to?
Can we at least wait until until the man is inaugurated before we blame every thing from the economy to the weather on him?
This is a run of the mill bear market rally and nothing else. The drop in the markets should be attributed to nothing less than the failed economy. The causes of this failure are many, but none are the direct fault of O.
Too many here are incredulous.
And this is not to be misconstrued as the lunatic ravings of a liberal.
Those tales of people breaking into the cars gets me ticked off. I could not really care less about the things I usually have in the car, or the car itself, for that matter. But, the time and headach of dealing with a break-in would be a pain in the @$$.
Shore Guy,
It is a royal pain in the butt. Especially when you don’t get all of the glass off of the seat.
“And this is not to be misconstrued as the lunatic ravings of a liberal.”
Stu,
As a wise man once observed, “Just because you are not paranoid doesn’t mean they are not out to get you.”
Market down another 450 points no problem, I am sooo glad o’Man is going to pay my cable bill and rent.
Badoom, ching.
homie,
I hope you are not current in any of your bills. If one has a demonstrated history of financial prudance and paying one’s debts no USG, R or D, will do anything to benefit you, so it now seems.
Buy now, never have to pay later.
Shore:
Another wise man once said, “He who purchase sushi at half price often pay twice.”
Stu,
I never thought of Union as having such problems. What part of town was it?
lol
When do we see 79xx, folks?
my prediction is mike morgan will declare “game over” again today and then the market moves exactly to the opposite direction.
Hey, we are only down 344 now. All is well with the world.
Rahway Avenue about 500 feet from where it connects with Liberty Ave.
It was a two man team. First they drove into our small parking lot and acted like they were just making a U-turn. Then they drove away. Ten minutes later they backed back into the lot, the passenger jumped out, broke the driver side window and snatched the GPS and jumped back into his car and sped off. The time it took from when he jumped out of the car to the time he hot back in was 17 seconds according to the tape.
Window cost $200 to replace and GPS was worth about $300 at the time.
#206 Shoreyou would at least own a piece of the American Dream.
Or perhaps nightmare.
When does HOV go to zero?
BC Bob,
Not in the traditional sense. I am simply suggesting that we acknowledge the real price of a business movement and look at its real implications.
Its really more of an open question from my point then a suggested policy.
Does we as a nation want to interact in a business environment that will drive business to lower standards in order to compete?
If 2nd and 3rd world nations cannot produce products in a similar environment to 1st world nations, then what does that say about the system as a whole? ( i dont know, i’m asking the question)
I understand that economic theory says that there should be a middle ground equilibrium point, a point where the consumer is willing to pay a higher price for a certain level of quality. however i think that the assumptions that such arguments are based on are often fatally flawed. One example is that of rapid information flow.
The average consumer has no way to easily tell if a product was made by some company in china that uses toxic chemicals, or if it was made in one that does not. Such information is actively obscured by governments and corporations
Without near perfect and symmetrical transfer of economic information, the classic equilibrium cannot be reached and the entire equation is shifted in the producers favor.
bi (219)-
What are you going long on?
BC Bob Says:
November 6th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
chi [197], I’ll have to watch it tonight.
Dude: remember I’m a geek….
Got to catch the 3:12PM NYC train leaving Middletown…..getting a freebie at Union Sq Cafe…..
Back during the 1992 recession, some thief popped the stereo, radar detector,kicker box and amp out of my IROC in less than a minute as I was in 7-11 getting my free refill and a pack of reds.
Times are gonna be tough, might as well toughen up, perhaps watch Rocky III a few times and hit the Golds Gym for some squats.
Schwarzenegger calls for sales tax hike, cuts in services
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger unveiled a plan today for a steep sales tax increase and deep cuts in services to wipe out a budget shortfall that is expected to swell to more than $24 billion by the middle of 2010
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-arnold7-2008nov07,0,4137915.story
Stu,
I don’t really know that part of town.
Homie,
Yet, take the car into the auto sound dealer, and it will take them all day.
Shore
if one of the big energy companies would look 10 years out, there is a lot of money to be made by being the first to transition.
if one of the big players made the transition first, before they are all forced to do it, then they would be a very powerful player for a long time into the future as the first one to transition voluntarily will be in a position to control the market.
stu,
does this guy fit your “rick republican/poor democrat” doctrine?
“People who worked with Emanuel at that time “insist the once hard-charging staffer has mellowed out.” He left the White House to accept a well-paid position at Dresdner Kleinwort investment bank in Chicago, where he worked from 1999 to 2002 and reportedly earned US$18 million.[9]”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rahm_Emanuel
bi,
Rahm was always well connected. It was his connections to money that financed the Bill Clinton campaign in 92.
bi:
The partisan BS left the station yesterday. Or so I thought.
Seriously dude. Write a letter to the post already.
Stu,
“You guys are all crazy thinking this market drop has anything to do with the election. When the Dow hit 7700 last month and bounced up to 9500, what did you all attribute to?”
I’m not referring to the drop, I was referring to the run up prior to the election. Who might have a lot to lose under a Democratic “re-regulation” binge? Maybe they tried to manipulate the market to give McCain a chance. I’m not really a conspiracy theory believer, but I just find the rally/fall timing to be odd.
“He left the White House to accept a well-paid position at Dresdner Kleinwort investment bank in Chicago, where he worked from 1999 to 2002 and reportedly earned US$18 million”
I suppose he owes ‘W’ a thank you note. Not only was he forced to take early retirement, but he was able to keep a lot more of what he earned.
Be careful what you say about him Bi. Otherwise you might get a dead fish in the mail.
Bob,
A philosophical question:
if a revenue generating activity has an overall negative impact of the population that business is based in then should it engage in such activities or forgo the revenue.
I do not expect an answer, but i think that it is a core question around globalization. The questions is not so clear cut when applied to the real world, but i believe it is still relevant.
I also think that most large companies choose the revenue route as opposed to the responsible route. Its not significantly different then the issue of companies basing their acts on the ability of those actions to generate favorable quarterly reports for wallstreet as opposed to long term planning
Grim,
#235 in moderation.
“Schwarzenegger calls for sales tax hike, cuts in services”
Bloomberg too. Perhaps the headline can read “[Insert Mayor/Governor’s name here] calls for sales tax hike, cuts in services.”
shore
it is more news worthy is a governer/mayor IS NOT calling for cuts
Well, a conference call awaits. Keep an eye on housing/stock prices while I am working.
They are all happy to have you enter, the front door is always open. Sometimes, a wee bit difficult to depart.
Shareholders, get in line. Behind the IB’s, insurance, autos, cc’s, student loans, state govt’s, manufacturers, etc.. How big is this window?
“Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) — Blackstone Group LP, the world’s largest private-equity firm, posted the biggest quarterly loss in 18 months as a public company as the financial crisis eroded the value of the businesses and real estate it has acquired.”
“Blackstone fell $1.23, or 14 percent, to $7.37 at 1:37 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, after dipping to $7.23 earlier in the day. Blackstone’s stock has fallen 76 percent since the IPO, compared with the 40 percent decline by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aORjQ2kdxJsA&refer=home
Ket,
There are two choices right now: 1) cut spending or, 2) raise taxes.
Shore (242)-
There is no choice. We have to
1) cut spending AND 2) raise taxes.
#208 Shore:
You’re right about the headache.
I had to stay late, past one in the morning, to have the Police show up and file a report. The missus was upset so she couldn’t sleep and waited up for me causing her to be late for her class this morning.
I had to be in Chelsea today at a client location but I put that off to vaccum out the glass, tape up the window and call around for window.
It’s not the money, it’s the time.
Who would have thought people would steal a $250 gizmo? Do they still steal radios?
What a time warp! Last time I had to fear this it was 1991, I was fresh off the boat from the motherland and Dinkins’ goons were roaming the streets of NYC with boomboxes on their shoulders.
“if a revenue generating activity has an overall negative impact of the population that business is based in then should it engage in such activities or forgo the revenue.”
kettle,
That depends on whom is negatively impacted? A job loss or political instability, lack of new businesses/innovation, shortages in food/materials, global trade wars, etc..
[208]
“Can we at least wait until until the man is inaugurated before we blame every thing from the economy to the weather on him?”
Hate to be the one to point this out, but his predecessor did not receive that courtesy. And given the last couple of decades of acrimony in DC, do you expect it to be any different? I think we will soon see fistfights on the house floor, kinda like we see in news stories from legislatures in Asia or former soviet republics.
HE (157)-
I’d be all over this, but I don’t like the indices.
Gimme a SRS or SKF at 3x…now, I’d be interested!
From Agora, no link.
“Obama will try to give the market at least one thing it desperately wants,” suggests Dan Denning, “some mechanism to separate bank balance sheets from falling U.S. house prices.”
“He’s going to revive the Depression-era Home Owners’ Loan Corporation (HOLC). That federal agency was set up to prevent foreclosures in the 1930s by purchasing distressed mortgages from lenders and then renegotiating both the term and the size of the loan with borrowers. You can see how it would appeal to policymakers at the moment.
“Some version of the HOLC is what you should expect. Rather than providing banks with fresh capital and asking them to modify mortgages for distressed homeowners, the federal government can simply do the job itself. It will finance the HOLC the same way it’s financing everything else (borrowing money). The borrowed money goes to the banks for recapitalization and the purchase of dodgy mortgage securities. Then, the HOLC refinances those 7 million Americans into 30-year mortgages with lower interest rates and a lower valuation on the house.
“Of course, there are massive problems with it, not least that it encourages people to quit paying their mortgage now and wait for the bailout. But we don’t have time for problems today, just illusory solutions. Keep hope alive.
“There will be more from Team Obama in the coming days. But we reckon the biggest bang for the policy buck — and the thing that would really give stock markets a boost — is some plan to ‘save’ homeowners or provide them with relief. Look for that this month.”
JB,
#248 in mod. A quote containing the O word.
BC Bob,
I agree with you, but think that NAFTA is probably a good example of net negative social impact.
I have no problem with business and trade. but i do not think it should be done without respect to associated costs both economic and real
246…with every post your IQ drops precipitously.
Clot,
For me it’s the ability to get out. I won’t touch them until the volume traded rises and I don’t see that happening until all the hedge fund redemptions are over and they are putting cash back to work.
What is guess on the board here to today’s market close? -500 or -200?
spoke to some people in the know and today is just Hedgies liquidating, they are still in forced selling. This has nothting to do with fundementals and no one cares. 3-10 years out it will be viewed as a buying opportunity.
spoke to some people in the know and today is just Hedgies liquidating, they are still in forced selling. This has nothting to do with fundementals and no one cares. 3-10 years out it will be viewed as a buying opportunity.
So they weren’t liquidating for the last 10 days?
#253 BC Bob; The thing that would really give stock markets a boost — is some plan to ‘save’ homeowners or provide them with relief. Look for that this month.”
I need to translate this for the author of the article;please see below.
Yes, however, in giving the stock market ‘relief”, that in turn will devestate the housing market,which will relieve the stock market of its so called “relief:
Essex [257],
The window or Blackstone?
on-air Rick Santelli told the truth and admitted to official network censorship of that truth….
“Every industrialized nation is putting a lot of supply on the market because they all have insolvent banks, woops I’m not supposed to say insolvent banks, they all have banking issues”
#256
I am saying raise the retirement age for people who are healthy enough to work. unless you can demonstrate incapacity, let’s raise retirement to at least 70.
Hey, Rocky III was on last night. “What’s your prediction for this fight? PAIN!!!”
at this point I just hope that home buyers get some stimulus action (tax credits, reduced rate mortgages). everyone else is getting something
#260 John:This has nothting to do with fundementals,
John stop please, nothing to do with fundamentals? So fundamentals do not matter any more? Good news bad news who cares, just hedgies liquadating? So what than drives the market hope and a prayer?
I Do not claim to be a hedgies expert, but would think that most liquadations would occur at month or quarter end.
There returns are not looking too godd these days. They are the last people I would trust regarding fundamentals.
No charges for Spitzer
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gvseu7uDYI9vGyMHJCo51IdS-4twD949L2PO3
3b [268],
According to John’s theory, the housing market decline also has nothing to do with fundamentals. Just flippers and those overextended caught on the wrong side of the trade, now liquidating.
[269]
Talk about professional courtesy. Spitzy clearly engaged in structuring, which is a charge that would almost certainly have been added if he were a Wall St. exec. who got caught hiring call-girls.
And were there ever any state charges? He admitted to pandering; it’s an open and shut case.
Once again, the power of celebrity is obvious.
# Comrade Nom Deplume Says:
November 6th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
[208]
“Can we at least wait until until the man is inaugurated before we blame every thing from the economy to the weather on him?”
Hate to be the one to point this out, but his predecessor did not receive that courtesy. And given the last couple of decades of acrimony in DC, do you expect it to be any different? I think we will soon see fistfights on the house floor, kinda like we see in news stories from legislatures in Asia or former soviet republics.
Comrade Nom
You say that O’s predecessor did not get the courtesy of not being blamed before he was in office. What exactly did W get blamed for? The budget surplus? He was in office for 8 months on 9/11 when he became a stand on top of the rubble, land a jet on a carrier hero. For doing what in that 8 months?
[239] hobo,
There was some “buy rumor, sell fact” at work, but those who were gonna sell and take gains (what gains?) because O was coming, would have tried to beat the rush to the exits. Maybe some folks got in later and took some quick gains, but that sounds like the tail wagging the dog.
Not often I agree with Stu, but I don’t think there is any there, there.
RayC #272
“For doing what in that 8 months?”
Mostly antagonizing the Chinese from what I can remember of those early Bush days… I remember at the time thinking that the only real positive outcome of Bush winning over Gore was that if he wee serious about a more humble foreign policy, at least we wouldn’t be attacking countries that never attacked us and posed no threat, like Clinton did… Unfortunately, by March of his first year in office, it was already clear he lied about the only good thing he ran on during the election…
There should be a name for the humanizing effect that losing has on presidential candidates. It must be a combination of them loosening up and not being a threat to be ruining your nightly news for the next 4 years. I remember Bob Dole being very funny when interviewed right after he lost. I almost fell off my chair. And in Hillary’s speech after losing to O, it almost felt as if she wasn’t lying to me or yelling at me for looking at younger women. (Ooops. I may have given away my real identity there.)
[272] Comrade RayC
I was in DC in 2000, and I remember quite clearly the palpable acrimony from the left about the election. They were furious about the impeachment, then furious that Gore did not win (and to be fair, they were just as mad at Bill as they were at W because it was believed that Bill’s philandering and prevaricating cost Gore the election).
I was at the parade in 2000 (indoors, it rained like a mofo that day) and there were a lot of slackers with “jail to the chief” signs. I remember reading the papers and watching the news (and you do have a different perspective there–coverage is better), and there were statements fairly early on from democrats that W would get no cooperation from their caucus.
I know you don’t like W, but I know what I saw and heard. The dems were furious from the outset. Such revisionist history is like trying to wipe away the fingerprints after the police have dusted for them.
In fact, can you name one major piece of legislation that was passed in a bipartisan fashion that the dems are still willing to admit that they voted for? (we know about the patriot act, tax cuts, and war authorizations) Nothing got done before 9/11, and everything done after is the source of much contention.
There are two real estate agencies down here that own a moving truck.
If you buy a home from them or sell your home through them they will let you use the truck for free. A typical U-Haul doesn’t cost very much however this is a nice incentive by them.
nom,
i wonder who spitzer had dirt on. Thats the only reason he didnt go down. He had dirt on the right person or people and traded his hide for his silence.
i wonder who else was familiar with miss dupre & friends. I bet elliot knows
citidel
john – how firm do you feel about that market bottom you called? 7900, was it?
i quit calling bottoms when my handle used to be “bloodbath in winter 2007”
Stu & Shore,
Regarding car break-ins in Union…I’m not too far from Rahway Ave. and I have to say that I have never had a problem. All of my family’s cars are parked on the street.(My garage is overpacked with stuff). I’ve learned that car break-ins can happen anywhere. Also, I’ve accidentally left my front door wide open on a few occasions for hours while I’m out shopping and have returned to find the house (luckily) intact.
kettle, you always follow the $$$. $ is relationships, and sometimes trust, whether or not it’s misplaced.
The money leads to the relationships. The relationships lead to trust. The trust leads to repetitive behavior. The behavior leads to vulnerabilities.
Pat
“kettle, you always follow the $$$. $ is relationships, and sometimes trust, whether or not it’s misplaced. ”
Wat are you referring to?
“No charges for Spitzer”
I suppose there is little liklihood that he will be celebrating with a call girl this time.
skep (265)-
How about work until you die?
That way, everyone gets an “individualized” plan.
skep (267)-
CA, FL and NV prove that the only “stimulus” needed is a reasonable selling price.
shore 284,
why not, you think his wife will “celebrate” with him anymore? just stay local and use cash.
Ket,
I can just see Slida now. “Hey Elliot. Let’s try S&M, we can start with me using this taser on your b@ll$.”
I still like 7,900. I don’t understand why people care. Heck I bought stocks in my 401K at 2k, 3k, 4k, 5k, 6k,7k,8k the dooms day people are focused as if 401K people all got in at the top and stayed 100% in equities. I am 100% in equities in my 401K and 100% in bonds and CDs in my taxable accounts. The 401K money I don’t have to touch for 25 years, plus who cares if RE goes down what does it matter? If you are not trading up and are being led out of your house to the grave yard what does it matter if it is worth 200K or 800K you are dead. If you are trading up who cares. My 500K pos house is worth 200K then my one million dream house is worth 400K. I think what is killing the average person is they have no liquid savings, are in debt with loans and leases and are losing their jobs and bonus, in the past these nuts would do 401k loans and home equity loans to tide them over. Well they should not be doing that. Everyone is supposed to have six months living expenses liquid and their only loan should be their mortgage. If the dummies have two car leases, 10K in CC debt and a home equity loan and they lose their job. That is the problem, not that their 401K is down.
“Think globally, pander locally?”
shore,
is there anything illegal about buying a female acquaintance a very expensive dinner for an hour or so…
just keep a cash stash off the books and known only to you. makes it much harder to track such activities. pay in cash, and dont use easypass. oh and make any calls using a disposable prepaid cell. toss the prepaid in the garbage on the way home.
he got caught because he was a dummy about it.
I see reasonable selling prices now and then. In fact I saw a house in the neighborhood I am looking at that went on Market yesterday. Bank said 48 hours best offer cash to be sold even if 50% off comps on street. All I needed was a tellers check for 900K on two days notice to get a 1.4 million dollar home. When the deals come they won’t be for subprime sludge of the 20% down broke dick crowd.
“what is killing the average person is they have no liquid savings, are in debt with loans and leases and are losing their jobs and bonus,”
Bingo! Losing a job does not have to mean BK and home losses, as long as people have cash to draw upon.
RayC (275)-
Does that mean P can go ahead and make “VPILF Cougar in Heat”?
I’d like that.
here’s an example of transactions rising with big price declines in Putname County, NY:
“Sales rose 11.7 percent in September over the previous year, but its median sales price dove 24.4 percent to $340,000. The county’s median sales price was at $450,000 in 2007.”
http://www.lohud.com/article/99999999/DATABASE10/70921005/-1/database
Clot
Hustler put out “Nailin Palin” about a month ago and paid the chick in it about 1 million.
I wonder how much they would pay the real person for a sequel?
Ket,
$600 cab fare for a friend.
Wall Streeters Turn Pink Slips Into Party
– 11/06/2008 To comment on this article click here (0)
About 500 Wall Street professionals laid off during the crisis will be drinking their troubles away at a pink slip party at The Public House in New York Tuesday, Nov. 11. The formerly employed can network, connect with recruiters, drink at a discount and raise cash for charity from 5:30 p.m. to 8:30 p.m. The suggested donation is $20, which will go toward the Ronald McDonald House of New York City.
“If you’ve got misery, we’ve got company,” read the title of the party invitation. Donations will be taken at the door, although those who have been pink slipped will receive free admission. There will be $2 Budweiser and Bud Lights, $4 Bluecoat Gin Cocktails and other “recession-busting” drink specials. Such events used to be held often in the dot com days, but hadn’t been seen for years.
re: Westchester, from above link:
“Westchester County continued to have New York state’s highest median among counties reporting to the state Realtors, though its median of $635,000 was down 10.6 percent from a year earlier. The county’s existing home sales were down 18.3 percent.”
Mitchell (277)-
To what state does one move after tapping out in North Carolina?
Alabama? Mississippi?
Theo at 3:49pm — “we wouldn’t be attacking countries that never attacked us and posed no threat, like Clinton did”
Bosnia didn’t attack or threaten the United States, yet Clinton unilaterally attacked them.
Check Senator Clinton’s comments:
“With respect to whose responsibility it is to disarm Saddam Hussein, I do not believe that given the attitudes of many people in the world community today that there would be a willingness to take on very difficult problems were it not for United States leadership. And I am talking specifically about what had to be done in Bosnia and Kosovo, where my husband could not get a Security Council resolution to save the Kosovar Albanians from ethnic cleansing. And we did it alone as the United States, and we had to do it alone. It would have been far preferable if the Russians and others had agreed to do it through the United Nations — they would not. I’m happy that, in the face of such horrible suffering, we did act.”
http://freedomagenda.com/iraq/wmd_quotes.html#Cuf1SojhAy
The Internet is such a wonderful resource.
Clotpoll
Now that she didn’t win I can admit she’s hot. As a matter of fact, why didn’t I vote for her? Instead I get to look at Joe Biden for 4 years.
Shore (288)-
Sounds like some sort of Kabbalah thing:
“Hey Elliot. Let’s try S&M, we can start with me using this taser on your b@ll$.”
why didn’t I vote for her?
Because she couldn’t name the other two countries in NAFTA? Or possibly because she didn’t know Africa was a continet.
vodka (291)-
This practice also works especially well for hitmen:
“…just keep a cash stash off the books and known only to you. makes it much harder to track such activities. pay in cash, and dont use easypass. oh and make any calls using a disposable prepaid cell. toss the prepaid in the garbage on the way home.”
vodka (296)-
It is both funny and disturbing that you know this stuff.
Listen to kettle getting all Day of the Jackal when he goes whoring
Comrade Nom
Oh, the Democrats blamed him, well of that there is no doubt. I was really responding to the supposedly impartial press running stories yesterday regarding the DOWs decline on Wednesday. Yahoo News had a headline “Market slumps on fear of Obama’s presidency”. I thought, wow, who did they survey? Why, no one really. It just seemed that was why the market slumped. ???? How did they back that up? They didn’t.
And I do remember being mad at Bush for “stealing” the 2000 election. But as a Democrat (OK registered independent who needs something like a pre-2006 McCain Republican to switch my vote) I was madder at my party for not being better at fighting to the death. Disclaimer – I get all my information from the internet or Michael Moore and HBO movies on the subject.
And all this over 537 votes.
I think he gets more excited about planning out all the logistics.
hughsrep
If I can’t vote for a politician just because they are stupid I may as well stay home.
“Instead I get to look at Joe Biden for 4 years.”
– You cannot look directly at Biden. Those teeth might blind you.
Biden has some serious hollywood dental work going on, those caps must be an inch or two thick.
HE (310)-
Then they match the thickness of his skull.
HEHEHE.
You caught me. There is never any fornication involved. i just pay the girl $1000 to meet me at a random time and place so i can go all cloak and dagger getting there.
I finally get there, happen to leave a magazine on the bar after finishing my drink, and then leave. if someone picks up the magazine i forgot, i have no control over that….
—————————
Clott,
And to think that i actually do censor my self to some degree……
Wow. In 3 years I have never had a comment go into moderation. Today I am a man.
OK, I’ll ask a real estate question. I keep finding “Notice of Settlement” on file (online) in Union County on properties that have sold, but no deed, and no sales price.
Who is obligated and in what time frame to report/record a sales price? Or do you have to record it, or just pay your taxes on it.
clott,
if you really want to be an@l, then you must keep the battery out of the cell phone until you use it then immediately remove it.
many models of cell phone can be remotely activated so that only the speaker and mic are active. its also easy to track you with a cell.
The FBI have used this method on the mafia before.
Clott @ 291
Did i mention i am self employed, an independent contractor of sorts.
craig list bored housewives give it away for tall boys on the train
Kettle a lot of buildings have security cameras now so do you wear a disguise?
Here’s Ben Stein’s latest self-proof of idiocy. I especially enjoy his obliteration at the hands of RQI. There’s no better feeling than knowing this dunce has got the other side of your trade:
Posted on Wednesday, November 5, 2008, 12:00AM
A few nights ago I did one of the most sensible things I could think of to do. I went to bed very early. The result was that I woke up feeling great and ready for a nice day. The weather was gorgeous at my home in Malibu and I could smell a tang of fall in the air coming off the ocean.
Then I decided to ruin it all by filing the past few months of stock transaction receipts. I get them online as well in the form of confirmations from my broker, but I like to review them in paper. Or, I should say I once upon a time liked to review them.
Now, they’re a catastrophe.
My losses are staggering even in the most plain vanilla index funds. In the emerging markets and developed markets, investments that had once provided immense gains, the losses are worse. Even in my beloved RQI, the high-income, leveraged REIT index fund, the losses are beyond belief.
Instead of just jumping off my balcony, which wouldn’t get me more than a broken leg, I am going to try to make some sense of what has happened.
First, although my colleague, Phil DeMuth, and I always wrote in our books that investors should have a huge slice of bonds, two problems happened to me. One, I had too many corporate bonds. Although they did not get hit as hard as stocks, they did not hold up well at all. Second, I should have had a huge dollop of Treasury short-term bonds. If I had held half of my savings in short term Treasuries, I would have lost only half as much.
I do hold a fair amount of cash, and that has been a saving grace. But I kept telling myself I would hold bonds aplenty when I retired not before. But I now see that I should have been holding roughly half in insured cash or Treasury short-term instruments.
I am little by little working towards that goal. The problem is that I do not want to sell when the market is so far down. In fact, I want to buy. The emerging markets are down to comically low levels (though of course they can always go lower).
The developed nation stocks are discounting the mother of all recessions and then some. My beloved RQI is so low that it is yielding roughly 25%. Even if its dividend is cut, which would not be a big surprise, it is still yielding over 10%, a nice thing for an old guy like me.
So, where do I go? I am trying to do three things:
One, save more in Treasuries, short term of course. Two, I am trying to buy the most beaten down index funds as ETFs, especially EEM, EFA, VTI, SPY, DIA, and, of course, RQI. Now bear in mind that RQI is leveraged and leverage has been very dangerous lately. But even if the leveraged part of RQI failed and it had to liquidate (which I do not foresee but then I missed a lot), it is trading far below liquidation value. So it should pay off more than its recent price.
Phil DeMuth and I have found that when a security is trading for far below its historical price, it usually has a strong recovery. Or, I can put it another way: if I liked it at X per share, I have to love it at one fourth of X. That is, unless the world is coming to an end and I don’t see that at all.
The financial crisis is still unfolding but I am convinced steps will be taken to calm the derivatives and mortgage crises and we will endure the likely coming recession to a brighter tomorrow.
But if we don’t, I will have those Treasuries and insured cash. I also like a lot variable annuities that give you a big slice of the upside when and if the market rallies strongly and guarantees your floor at your entry price. These are not cheap but the hedge they offer is life saving.
Lastly, I am trying to enjoy life so that I am more than the mere composite of the stocks and bonds I own. I hate myself for being so dependent on how much money I have for my self image. I am going to change that. I do not want to endlessly think of myself as worth x dollars one day and half of that another day. I hope I am more than that.
As for retirement, well, I get sick and bored if I am not on the road most of the time anyway making new friends and talking to good people.
But to get back to money: history tells us we can have long dry spells in stocks. It also teaches that markets can way overshoot on the way down (and on the way up). Unless something even more horrible than the derivatives crisis lurks out there, stocks look cheap now. But cash and Treasuries offer peace and the ability to sleep at night.
Yes, stocks are more fun on the way up, but on the way down, they can ruin your whole day. One more thing: the reason I am not suicidal right now is that I have a wife who would be fine with it if we had to live a more modest life style. Try to find a life companion like that.”
HEHEHE
SOme cameras can be defeated by attaching a very small, super bright IR LED to the brim of your glasses or a hat. The LED can be small enough to be unnoticeable to most. Its not fool proof, but it will work on the cheaper model of security camera. This will blind many cameras that only have a cheap IR filter.
of course you can always use a pocket size HERF
The more effective low tech method is to choose busy public spaces and situational awareness
I have also found this disguise to work well.
http://tinyurl.com/5pglvy
Vodka (318)-
Please assure me that you don’t own a pocket-size HERF.
Or a pulse gun.
clott,
are you referring to the gauss type or the rail type of pulse gun?
Kettle,
Is that Spitzer?
Not anymore John.
Craigslist to crack down on prostitution ads
http://tech.yahoo.com/news/ap/20081106/ap_on_hi_te/tec_craigslist_prostitution
Oh, and clott, have ever realized how expensive tungsten rounds are? The range and penetration are worth it though
#265 Yes, raising the retirement age would help. So would taxing all earned income, not cutting it off at, what is it now? $102K? Most people don’t make anywhere near $100K so I think that would be more politically palatable to them. Health care is another whole mess. Just musing but what do you think would happen to costs if we went back to the way is was years ago, when you paid the doctor on your way out the door and then YOU, not the Dr.s office, submitted the claims to the insurance company. I don’t have a clue but I’ve always wondered about that. Maybe sl would know.
Big Three collapse could cost 2.5 million jobs
The potential failure of one or more of the three U.S.-based automakers would cut up to 2.5 million jobs in the first year as production ground to a halt throughout the industry, according to an auto industry consultant group on Wednesday. The impact on carmakers, suppliers and the operations of transplant automakers in the United States would reduce personal income by more than $125 billion in the first year, the Center for Automotive Research said in a study.
http://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081106/REG/811059972/1036
FYI Obama is having a press conference at 1:30 tomorrow. Supposed to have his “economic team” together, Buffet and some other eye candy on the dias. I suppose I’ll be moving up my SDS sell stops accordingly for the ensuing “sunshine up my @ss rally.”
FYI Pres Elect O is having a press conference at 1:30 tomorrow. Supposed to have his “economic team” together, Buffet and some other eye candy on the dias. I suppose I’ll be moving up my SDS sell stops accordingly for the ensuing “sunshine up my @ss rally.”
“Hey Elliot. Lets try S&M, we can start with me using this taser on your b@ll$.”
Clot,
It should be easy for her to do,since, I hear, she has them in a jar on a shelf over the fireplace of their upstate place.
Bank of Japan Helpless as Yen Rises on Carry Trade Fall
The Bank of Japan may be powerless to prevent the yen from rising to a 13-year high, according to the world’s biggest foreign-exchange traders. Deutsche Bank AG, UBS AG and Barclays Plc predict the yen will recover from its steepest weekly decline since 1999 as investors reduce carry trades that fund purchases of higher- yielding assets by borrowing in Japan. The currency will appreciate to 90 per dollar from 97.74 today in Tokyo even if the Bank of Japan intervenes to stem the biggest annual gain since 1998, they said.
“Once the market realizes that we’re now in a global recession, there’s further deleveraging to come,” said Geoff Kendrick, a senior currency strategist in London at UBS, the second-biggest trader in the $3.2 trillion-a-day market. Traders “are capitulating” after five years of bets against the yen, he said in a Nov. 4 interview. The currency’s 14 percent gain against the dollar this year and 30 percent advance versus the euro prompted Japan’s government to announce last month it may buy or sell currencies to influence exchange rates, as the world’s second-largest economy stumbled. Gross domestic product shrank by an annualized 3 percent in the second quarter as exports dropped 2.5 percent, according to government data.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&refer=home&sid=aykUGI_BDLbo
vodka (323)-
No, I haven’t really thought out the tungsten thingy.
Thank you for bringing this important point to light.
OT: I cannot believe the US military ever allowed you to use a weapon. You seem unstable and dangerous. :)
“Bank of Japan Helpless as Yen Rises on Carry Trade Fall”
kettle[327],
Unfortunately, this is what occurs when Mrs Wantanabe is caught naked.
Not so OT:
Round 2, NJ state soccer tournament (at Brigadoon):
North Hunterdon 4, Brigadongs 3
Daughter informs that the Brigadongs had been woofing at us for several days, via some especially nasty Facebook postings.
Looks like the Graydons bite it again.
BC (329)-
And from the neck down, Mrs. Watanabe looks like a sumo.
Yuck.
Those tales of people breaking into the cars gets me ticked off. I could not really care less about the things I usually have in the car, or the car itself, for that matter. But, the time and headach of dealing with a break-in would be a pain in the @$$.
have a good story, unrelated to GPS: Living in NYC five years ago, my now-wife had come to visit and was parking her car. a guy tried to steal her spot (he passed it and was trying to reverse back). Guy mouths off, so just to be sure, she gets his plates off his BMW.
next day … window smashed. nothing stolen, just broken window. well at my old job, i had access to some cool stuff … so i quickly got his information (family names and locations, all that fun stuff).
i had a work trip out of town, and went to a pay phone and call the kid’s house (he was some Long Island punk who lived at home). mom picked up and i mentioned the kid’s name and that he needs to watch who he messes with. i said stuff like, ‘i’ll come up to your house tomorrow night and not only f*ck with your son’s car, but also yours (i had the make and model of theirs, too).” the mom was speechless.
a month later, i was in another city and again went to a payphone and made a call. i was more brazen and left a message on the machine. i went with the same line – dont think i’ve forgotten you bleepty bleep bleep – and dont think i know your sister xyz.”
two months later, i called again to terrorize and frighten the hell out of this guy (again from a payphone, again outside of NYC). finally, he picked up and i made sure to mention his middle name and lob a few nasty words his way – i could hear the fear in his voice (or lack of speaking).
never went to see him though, but still have his info.
sorry that’s so long.
Tokyo is open now down 4% out of the gate.
re: 332
From the facts you gave, you really don’t know that the BMW owner was guilty of the damage and so may well have been terrorizing an innocent person.
While it feels good to be able to take action, there is a awful risk of turning yourself into the very person you feel wronged you.
Nom Re 332- All the more reason for an out of home GTG.
Yikes…..unlike many who might read that post….I applaud your creativity…and pathology. Bravo.
I have an extra $2, should I buy 1 gallon of gas or 1 share of Ford?
Disclaimer: Not to be confused with 1 share of Bear on March 17th.
Essex,
Was it difficult comprehending the Blackstone horror or just confused with the lineup at the window?
Toyota dropping like a stone. I suppose the prospects of an American Market without a strong domestic automaker does not offset the possible loss of business from our economic downturn.
man, for a slowdown, I am sure busy these days.
SAS
BC (338)-
I think F will lose the 2 handle before the gas.
sas (341)-
Entering a global depression is hard work.
Clott
“I cannot believe the US military ever allowed you to use a weapon. You seem unstable and dangerous. :)”
they loved my testing results! i am insulted!
Socom loves that sort anyway.
vodka (344)-
“That sort”?
Like the dude who iced the sergeant in Full Metal Jacket?
maybe i should have joined the world bank instead of the army?
The 401K money I don’t have to touch for 25 years
john, how old are you? i didnt peg you for a day under 45.
currently listening to a mike morgan conf call (from sunday, i think). it’s not as doom and gloom as i thought. interesting stuff, though
i wonder if omama will forget about the black population, and instead cater to the jewish and Israel lobby.
If i was to place my bets….
SAS
whoa! morgan just said “i’m not a gold bug, i think the dollar will get stronger.”
maybe i shouldn’t sink 2k into some gold coins, and just stick with what i have …
(he did project the Euro would get destroyed badly)
SAS….you fascinate me….perhaps the most cynical dude on here….yet you somehow have exploited the system enough to prosper. The worst kind of hypocrite? Or just a web persona?
“SAS….you fascinate me….perhaps the most cynical dude on here….yet you somehow have exploited the system enough to prosper. The worst kind of hypocrite? Or just a web persona?”
yup, I am cynical. lets just say… I have a history, and their ain’t nothing I havn’t done…twice.
yes, I have done ok with myself, but not always by means that I am proud of, hence live with alot of guilt.
am I hypocrite? no, I don’t think so.
but hey, I ain’t perfect neither.
I wish I was perfect, would have been alot cheaper and less stressful, and my x wives wouldn’t be living off my dime, while I work to the bone, and they sit poolside.
SAS
but hey…
what do I know?
I’m just a bloke on the web.
:)
SAS
Essex,
Help me to help you. Can you please answer the question. You made the statement, now come up to the plate.
Essex,
You have a different take on BX? Your silence is deafening.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=BX&time=&freq=
Clot – maybe im just weird, but i had a decent feeling after taking in about an hour of that marathon chat from Morgan.
my takeaway: s*hit is bad. markets are crap. but the US dollar is strong, and there’s no need to panic and load up on the physical gold.
he didn’t talk about guns and such – maybe not the right place to do so, what with 150 people listening – which put me at ease.
also, no talk of civil unrest and such.
i do plan on ramping up my housing search, though. and im starting with banks.
“he didn’t talk about guns and such”
I bet when that one psychologist got hacked up, I bet she wished she had a firearm.
anyone comes into your home, best to have a firearm. home protection.
as for me, I sleep well at night, somecomes into my door… I’m hitting center mass.
SAS
take a safety class of course, and if kids around, best get an instant access pistol safe.
SAS
BC…..sorry man….no opinion on BX….sorry to make you wait…just distracted…
Chit SAS….you are one complex mofo. Guilt is for people who think too much (or too little)…who knows. I applaud your candor.
Guns are OK…but alarm systems are better….anyone who is coming in already has a jump on you….and possibly more fire power. Tough situation. We’ve made our place tough to enter….very thick glass….mostly elevated windows….steel security door on the front and full sensors around the back. We have a good dog too. I’m a bit of a knife fan and one hell of a street fighter having grown up as the only jew for miles in the south….you learn real fast. As for guns….I would rather take the one from the intruder and waste them with their own weapon and then cut the head off the body — just a safety measure.
“BC…..sorry man….no opinion on BX….sorry to make you wait…just distracted…”
Essex [358],
Go back to your post, #257. Now, no opinion?
essex (259),
no offense bloke, but you are still in the early stages of your learning curve.
but thats alright, your learning.
SAS
Was actually referencing something Nom said…..I must have plugged in the wrong number…..Whew. Sorry BC…typo.
essex – good point about the precautions. we’re renting, so we can’t put in an alarm or do any of that other stuff you did. but we’re in Bucks County, and i called the local police station prior to moving into the neighborhood in the town we’re in … and there hasn’t been a police incident here in years.
that being said … we won’t move into our house without an alarm. and i recently purchased a gun and have been to the range. we will probably by another one, just for the wife (who has never shot a weapon).
What’s up with gsmls? New format? Is this old news and I just haven’t checked in a while? They still can’t be bothered to just say where the homes are located huh? Makes me want to look for a home in Texas… or just about anywhere else in the U.S.
yikes (355)-
Morgan sees it as too early to do the gold thing. Wouldn’t be surprised to learn he thinks paper gold will fail, either (not that I know his position on it).
His take on civil unrest is well-documented. He may have just decided not to cover old ground in this particular call. He has gone on 10-15 minute rants about domestic rioting with 300+ people on a call, so I don’t think he’s afraid to go there.
Of course the USD is strong. Everybody else is tanking/racing to the bottom as fast- or faster- than us. Lots of people scrambling to pay off USD-denominated debt, too. I wouldn’t read anything into dollar strength. In the end, all currencies are screwed.
Yeah man…..I love conflict…but BC rocks the house….sorry about the confusion. I want to do the gun thing….but have a temper and might be more harm than good…..know what I mean.
yikes (355)-
Just because a bank owns a house, it doesn’t make it a deal.
Lots of stupid banks out there.
Clot-
Where do you typically set your trailing stops on SKF? Just wondering how close they are to last.
Perhaps after the Great O(z) speaks at 1:30 it will allow the markets to rebound from morning losses. If things plunge first thing, does anyone thinkkk the fed might do an emergency cut of another.25?
“CNBC.COM | November 06, 2008 | 5:44 PM EST
Friday’s jobs report goes right to the heart of what’s ailing the markets.
It’s the fear that the economy is weaker than many are forecastingand rising unemployment will only make it worse.
October’s employment report is scheduled for release at 8:30 am EST. The consensus is for a loss of 200,000 non-farm payrolls, but some economists are ratcheting up their estimates to a decline of as many as 300,000 jobs.
“It’s going to be pretty ugly,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com”
snip
I bracket myself with stops 5-7% under and limit orders that can (hopefully) get me right back in. I get stopped out a lot, but when it moves down, it can drop 15% in an hour. I’d much rather use the downswings to average back in than sweat dumping a beaten-down position. I’ve stopped out and re-entered SKF three times within some trading sessions.
The worst down moves come after big runs. When it moved to $212, it plunged to under $100 within days. You can’t hold this issue and not have stops in. It can flat-out ruin you.
Laddering stop orders on SKF can work pretty well, too.
Qwerty Says:
November 6th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
Theo at 3:49pm — “we wouldn’t be attacking countries that never attacked us and posed no threat, like Clinton did”
And I am talking specifically about what had to be done in Bosnia and Kosovo, where my husband could not get a Security Council resolution to save the Kosovar Albanians from ethnic cleansing. And we did it alone as the United States, and we had to do it alone. It would have been far preferable if the Russians and others had agreed to do it through the United Nations — they would not. I’m happy that, in the face of such horrible suffering, we did act.”
The Internet is such a wonderful resource.
Qwerty: Go ingest a full bottle of Advil…….NOW!