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From the Press of Atlantic City:
Borgata lays off 400 workers
Stanley Silow, a veteran casino dealer, once worked for Harrah’s but made the jump to Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa about two and a half years ago to improve his job security.
Atlantic City’s top-grossing casino, after all, had never made any layoffs, he reasoned.
At least until this week.
Silow lost his job Wednesday and is one of 400 Borgata employees now out of work – the latest casualties of Atlantic City’s struggling casino market.
From the Star Ledger:
State’s flow of red ink deepens as it runs up $2B in new debt
The red ink facing New Jersey taxpayers continued to rise as state officials ran up another $2.1 billion in additional debt in the fiscal year that ended June 30, the state’s an nual debt report shows.
During the year, the amount of debt included in the report rose from $29.7 billion in June 2007 to $31.86 billion. The report also noted that since June 30, the state has borrowed another $805 million. The state’s debt load is triple what it was a decade ago.
It will cost taxpayers almost $2.9 billion to cover payments on the debt next year, the report shows. That is an increase of $215 million over the repayment costs projected in last year’s report.
The higher tab will add strain to the upcoming state budget, which Gov. Jon Corzine has already warned is likely to face a shortfall of up to $4 billion amid declining tax revenues brought on by the col lapsing economy.
From the Record:
Towns ask: How can we build more housing?
If Clifton were to follow the most recent obligation mandated by the state’s new affordable housing regulations, it would have to create 1,048 units of moderate- and low-income units over the next 10 years.
In a city where open space is at a premium and schools are at or over capacity, officials say building that many new affordable housing units borders on absurdity.
Although that number of housing units is lower than an earlier projection of 2,949, officials say they are still torn between providing affordable housing opportunities and fighting what they see as unreasonable expectations from state government.
“They’re saying to everybody, ‘You have to follow these numbers,’ and everybody’s going, ‘Huh?’ ” said Dennis Kirwan, city planner.
New Jersey’s affordable housing statutes are a result of a 1985 landmark court case that challenged local zoning ordinances that essentially prevented low- and moderate-income families from living in some communities.
…
The Council on Affordable Housing considers several factors besides the size and population of a municipality when creating the obligations. With strong mass transit systems, towns like Clifton and Wayne are considered ripe for new development.
“They wouldn’t do this in West Milford,” said Kirwan. “They’re trying to force everybody into the cities.”
Clifton faces a few unsavory options in achieving its obligation. City officials have been approached by a number of non-profits who seek to establish affordable housing and have asked the city to purchase vacant buildings.
(Grim) Well I guess I’m first!
Are they really considering Corzine for Treasury? Who do you think we will see in that position?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Las-Vegas-Sands-crumbles-bankruptcy/story.aspx?guid=%7BEBDD5843%2D119A%2D4FBE%2DA659%2D47F98B1D1E6D%7D&dist=SecMostRead
“The good times for the gaming industry are over…at least in the short term outlook…”
Maybe the casinos will turn to TARP for a bailout?
Who needs to go to Vegas when you can gamble from your computer on the market?
Jobs report will be ugly; Dow futures up. Go figure. GM’s burn rate on cash approaching light speed. Other industries lining up for the hand out. Tax payer money will go toward Wall Street bonuses. Heading to the Alsace tomorrow for a little sanity.
“The last hope for keeping consumers temporarily afloat is credit cards. All signs point to this source being completely dried up.
“Over the past few weeks credit card companies have slashed the amounts they are willing to lend to risky customers. Most of them won’t even open up new accounts for high-risk individuals. And they cut their marketing budgets too. According to CBS News, HSBC sent out 54% less direct mail advertisements and Citibank has sent out 45% less.
“The credit card issuers have become risk averse and are finally limiting the total credit available and the amount of customers they’re willing to take on. Credit card spending, the third leg of American ‘wealth’ is going away too”.
http://wallstreetpit.com/the-next-shoe-is-dropping/
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aqf2JJ0iGYBE&refer=home
Here’s one for Kettle..
“Forget Corn: Mushrooms may hold Key to Energy Crisis”
“The search is daunting because of the sheer number of fungi…”
From BLoomberg:
GMAC Leaves Individuals With $15 Billion of Car Lender’s Junk
GMAC LLC may leave thousands of individuals on the hook for about $15 billion of junk-rated debt unless the auto and home lender finds a way to pay its bills.
GMAC, the largest lender to car dealers of General Motors Corp., issued more than $25 billion of debt called SmartNotes over the past decade to retail investors. While GMAC has paid off the debts as they matured, five straight unprofitable quarters raised doubt about GMAC’s survival, and SmartNotes due in July 2020 have lost about two-thirds of their value.
“An investment like this is totally unsuitable for the retail investor,” said Sean Egan, president of Egan-Jones Ratings Co. in Haverford, Pennsylvania, who rates GMAC bonds junk, or below investment grade. “You’re selling it to the widows and orphans who think of GMAC as being this strong, long- standing corporation when the reality is far from that.”
…
Chuck Woodall, 66, who lives with his wife in Columbus, Ohio, amassed $200,000 of SmartNotes starting eight years ago, and they now equal about 25 percent of his investments. At the time, the securities were rated investment-grade and they paid more interest than government bonds or certificates of deposit. They also were backed by Detroit-based GM, the biggest U.S. automaker.
…
Woodall, a former owner of apparel stores and a pet-supply business, holds SmartNotes due in 2018 that he says have lost about 80 percent of their value. He said his Merrill broker told him that in more than 20 years, no client had lost money on bonds.
“He assured me they were safe,” Woodall said. “I just wasn’t aware enough and didn’t have my hand on the pulse.”
He said his Merrill broker told him that in more than 20 years, no client had lost money on bonds.
Isn’t this the same pitch agents used to sell real estate?
Should I renew sueyourrealestateagent.com?
Saying the city was confronted by an economic crisis of “incredible proportions,” Mayor Nutter unveiled a financial rescue plan yesterday that drastically trims services, delays tax breaks, and reduces the city payroll.
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/home_top_left_story/20081107_Nutter_makes_deep_cuts_in_Phila__services__payroll.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/3391500/House-prices-falling-by-over-900-a-week.html
Hous prices in the UK…falling every week….
Would that be…House?
All of the states are hurting now – why can’t TARP funds go across the board to help states instead of banks…Our revenue (or lack of) from R/E taxes (and now sales) is just messed up…
I guess there’s an argument that the fundamental problem with the world economy is that there was flat out too much money chasing too few things. Once the money (credit) dried up, deflation of asset classes follows; housing was first since that was what most of the money was based on/chasing.
From Calculated Risk: An except from Fed Governor Kevin Warsh’s speech:
“… I would advance the following: We are witnessing a fundamental reassessment of the value of virtually every asset everywhere in the world.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
“Wave of Redemptions Hits Hedge Funds”
“With hedge funds, you can get in, just don’t think you can easily get out. Dozens of Hedge Funds Have Blocked Redemptions.”
That must be why this sell-off is taking so long. People are waiting in line for their turn to get out..
From the NYT:
Retailers Report a Sales Collapse
Sales at the nation’s largest retailers fell off a cliff in October, casting fresh doubt on the survival of some chains and signaling that this will probably be the weakest Christmas shopping season in decades.
The remarkable slowdown hit luxury chains that sell $5,000 designer dresses as badly as stores that offer $18 packs of underwear, suggesting that consumers at all income levels are snapping their wallets shut.
Sales at Neiman Marcus, the luxury department store, dropped nearly 28 percent in October compared with the same month last year. Sales fell 20 percent at Abercrombie & Fitch, nearly 17 percent at Saks, 16 percent at Gap and nearly that much at Nordstrom.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Jobless Rate Probably Climbed to Five-Year High
he 78 economists surveyed forecast October job losses ranging from 85,000 to the 300,000 predicted by Goldman Sachs & Co. The jobless rate last month probably rose from 6.1 percent in September. The Labor Department’s report is due in Washington at 8:30 a.m.
The projected drop in payrolls would follow a decline of 159,000 in September and bring total losses so far this year to 960,000.
Factories probably cut 65,000 workers from payrolls, according to the survey median. A strike by 27,000 machinists at Boeing Co., which was resolved earlier this month, will contribute to the drop, economists said.
…
“Most firms are girding for an extended slowdown,” said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors Inc. in Holland, Pennsylvania, and Bloomberg’s best forecaster for 2008. “The worst is not likely to be seen for a few more months as firms are just beginning to give notice of layoffs.”
(11) Grim – I tried to “google” sueyourrealestateagent.com – the reference you get is “New Jersey Real Estate Report” from January 30th. I must not have been paying attention. Was this a new business venture you were considering?
#14 Cindy,
Maybe you just spelled it phonetically?
But how can prices fall in the UK? It’s n island! They’re not making any more land you know!
/ off sarcasm
The UK was way ahead of the US in house flipping TV shows. They came out with a series called Property Ladder (started 2001) about new flippers trying to buy, renovate, and flip. (Found that one very funny as the DIY jobs looked awful and budgets were frequently very inadequate) http://www.channel4.com/4homes/on-tv/property-ladder/index.html
They also had another show with an agent would go around and help people stage and market their house. (This one was actually pretty good, starred some prim and proper dude who was a super re sales guy). Can’t remember the name of that show.
Both were better than the US shows.
Barien (21)- You know what I did?
I typed in “home” but when I reread my notes – it said “house.”
(I just didn’t recheck my typing…)
What a mess – huh.
DL – 16 – “We are witnessing a fundamental reassessment of the value of virtually every asset everywhere in the world.”
combined with..
Grim – 18 – People are basically refusing to spend money on anything.
Bank balance sheets in the UK as bad as in the US.
“Britain’s biggest mortgage lenders have ignored calls from the Government to pass on yesterday’s cut in interest rates to struggling homeowners.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article5098702.ece
GSMLS has a new format this morning. The new format does not show a number for the total listings available. I can only assume this was done on purpose in order to mislead all the sheep!!
Watch out for the jobs report, it could push the dow down for a third day in a row.
JIM
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7154.html
The Market Oracle
“Financially Deluded Gambling Hedge Funds Expode”
“Any wonder global asset prices have sunk? If the average hedge fund has two-times leverage,” says one broker, “the industry may be forced to sell (another) $500 million in assets between now and the end of the year.”
“With hedge funds, you can get in, just don’t think you can easily get out.”
Cindy,
HMMM.
So, which country is going to fail today?
If I may step into Gary’s shoes for a minute…
“EXCUSE ME! Your piece of shit industrial building that you bought 8 years ago is NOT, I repeat, NOT worth 17,000 times what you paid for it. Forgetting FOR A F***ING MINUTE that you did absolutely nothing except put chandeliers in the office (WTF???), or put in half-dead shrubberies with the nursery tags still on them, real estate does not magically increase in value at a rate faster than the space shuttle travels.
If CRE increased in value at such a rate, WHY DIDN’T EVERYONE JUST BUY A BUILDING FOR
RETIREMENT?!??!?!
AND IF IT HEAR ONE MORE TIME THAT SOMEONE TOLD YOU IT’S WORTH -INSERT SOME REALLY F***ING STUPIDLY HIGH NUMBER HERE- I’LL SCREAM!
Go find that person and ask THEM to whip out their checkbook.
Please. Really.
Your listing is waste of paper and bandwidth.
AND STOP COMPARING IT TO ACTIVE LISTINGS. THEY’RE ACTIVE BECAUSE NOONE BOUGHT THEM!!!!!
ARGH!!eleventy1!!!
“He said his Merrill broker told him that in more than 20 years, no client had lost money on bonds.”
Pounce on every dip. Markets always come back.
Cindy [25],
Unfortunately, leverage is a 2 way street. By the way, why are they called hedge funds. What are they hedging? The greatest con job going, pay 2/20 and you are restricted if you want your $ back. Where do I sign up?
[19],
How many jobs will be created in construction and finance via birth/death?
(30) BC – I have been trying to research why this sell-off is extending longer than some expected and it would appear it could go on for quite some time – right?
“The rise in the dollar’s exchange value is due to two factors.”
“One factor is the traditional flight to the reserve currency that results from panic. People are simply doing what they have always done. Pam Martens predicted correctly that panic demand for U.S. Treasury bills would boost the U.S. dollar.
The other factor is the unwinding of the carry trade.”
“The toxic American derivatives were marketed worldwide by Wall Street. They have endangered the balance sheets and solvency of financial institutions throughout the world, including national governments, such as Iceland and Hungary. Banks and governments that invested in the troubled American financial instruments found their own debt instruments in jeopardy.”
http://www.creators.com/opinion/paul-craig-roberts.html?columnsName=pcr
It appears from the article – the “assets” they were trying to use were consumer asset-backed securities – har har…
BC (31)-
At least we can trust that whatever the number is, it will be wrong.
i went out to dinner with a friend of mine last night who is gov. mbs/bond trader. very casually i asked how things were going and he said “this is our environment, things are great, can you pass the butter?”
i didn’t press…
Cindy [32],
Don’t pay any attention to what the experts/pundits expect, they stand where they sit. Just take note of all the pundits on this site, over the last 3 years. Most of them have vanished. Remember, the majority of money manager’s have only experienced a one way market. IMO, this is not not daddy’s bear market, it’s granddaddy’s.
Clot [35],
Only a govt blackbox can create jobs, over the last 8 months, in industries that are currently in a depression.
Clot and other experts-
I’m looking at a short sale where the list price is over half off the primary and second mortgages on the property recorded on the county clerks records. Does this mean the lenders have already agreed to take such a loss? Also a lis pendens foreclosure has just been added on the clerks page in the past week (primary mortgage).
The house is not owner occupied and they have been busy stripping the house of antique fireplace mantels, stained glass, kitchen appliances, etc., of which the listing agent intimated we could buy back from the owners behind the bank’s back. Can you belive that??
Is it better to try and negotiate through the owners and listing agent and bank or just wait for the forclosure auction?
It seems like the lenders are already resigned to take a huge hit on this one.
It gets even more complicated because the owners have another property nearby that also has a lis pendens forclosure against it and I believe one of the mortgages on the first property was taken to buy the second property.
How should I proceed?
I just heard the Bloomberg reporter say “the stock was falling like a stone..” Las Vegas Sands…
“A state sales tax jump could backfire
Gov. Schwarzenegger’s proposal for a temporary increase could drive consumers to buy outside the state or over the Internet.”
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-caltax7-2008nov07,0,4976048.story
Gee, do ya think?
U.S. Oct. unemployment rate rises to 6.5%, 14-year high
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Oct. unemployment rate rises to 6.5%, 14-year high
U.S. 2008 payrolls fall by 1.18 milllion jobs
U.S. Oct. nonfarm payrollls fall 240,000 vs 210,000 expected
U.S. 2008 payrolls fall by 1.18 milllion jobs
Didn’t they expect 6.3?
Uh oh!
can you imagine if they reported the real #’s?
Employment has fallen by 1.2 million in the first 10 months of 2008; over half of the decrease has occurred in the past 3 months. In October, job losses continued in manufacturing, construc-tion, and several service-providing industries. Health care and mining continued
to add jobs.
Birth Death adjustments is 303K!
http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm
>>
O should resign!
Wow, layaway is back! I heard it on the news and in a dept. store the other day. I remember being a kid and going to the desk once a week to pay for RC Pro am for Nintendo. That was a great game unlike the evil developers of Ghosts and Goblins. I still never beat it.
(37) BC – RE: Granddaddy’s bear market – I think that is why you keep seeing references to Galbraith’s quotes…
From The Market Oracle article…
“Because as the prime brokers recall their loans – and refuse to lend anything like the “fair value” of assets put up as collateral – the leverage which paid so beautifully on the way up acts instead “to continue and accentuate a deflationary cycle, as J.K. Galbraith wrote of the 1929 crash.”
Cindy,
regarding shrooms:
Bio fuels of any sort will probably only ever be a niche fuel source. They can work great for certain applications but there are a number of issues if you try to scale them up to the order of a primary fuel source.
One of the potential big problems that is not immediately obvious is an interruption of the carbon cycle. Thats a whole other debate though.
——————————–
BC Bob
The idea of a new “New Deal” infrastructure project is that how does that help the current market. Such projects require a mobile work force of skilled physical laborers. How long would it take to retrain wall street bankers to be metal workers or welders? then you have family interruption in that these jobs will have to move all over the country.
That doesnt mean that we shouldn’t, or cant do it, just that the modern job market is not as readily supported by infrastructure projects as the job market of the 1930’s was. We have shifted from a manual labor/industrial economy to a service/white collar economy. that is a big transition to make.
coast (39)-
Lenders will not even consider a short sale until the borrower presents the lender with an entire package of information, including a fully-executed contract of sale. Indeed, the lender may not even be aware the property is being marketed.
The borrower is essentially perpetrating a robbery, as he’s laying waste to a mortgaged property. Buying fixtures and accessories- off the HUD-1- makes you an accessory.
Sound like fun?
Real, not off balance sheet, unemployment is now 11.8%. This represents, approx, a 50% increase from 10/07. Anybody selling extra apple carts?
“About 1.6 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached
to the labor force in October, 273,000 more than 12 months earlier. These indi-
viduals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in
the prior 12 months. They are not counted as unemployed because they had not
searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally at-
tached, there were 484,000 discouraged workers in October; the number of dis-
couraged workers was 164,000 higher than a year earlier. Discouraged workers are
persons not currently looking for work specifically because they believe no jobs
are available for them. The other 1.2 million persons marginally attached to the
labor force in October had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the sur-
vey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.”
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm
BC Bob,
real unemployment is between 12 and 14%
also notice M1 and CPI.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
“then you have family interruption in that these jobs will have to move all over the country.”
kettle,
One major problem. How can they move, they can’t sell their house.
#36 secondary: You got your answer. Things are bad; He does not want to talk about it.
kettle [52],
I agree. I’m just using the “real” govt #.
Vodka (49)-
Maybe we can retrain all the unemployed BSDs to make sushi and sear foie gras…then, nationalize the dirty-water hot dog business, convert all the Sabrett carts and begin selling ourselves raw fish and warm, quivering goose livers.
RE: #53
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_mysak&sid=aIBhaZN1CGfQ
(57) ooppss…”Homebodies Take on Joads in US Real Estate Bust”
bear [46],
Yet, nobody from BLS can tell me where these jobs are being created.
Shore,
Can you contact one of your buddies and ask? Much appreciated.
just found an interesting chart,
unemployment during the 30’s
http://tinyurl.com/5rz9tb
What is an alternative jobless rate?
“just found an interesting chart”
kettle,
Yep, that puts us at 1931.
Nj could very well be in for a fall worse then california.
Our ome prices at around (5+)X average income some of the highest taxes in the nation, and the 2 major industries in the area have/ are in the process or jumping ship.
This has been said before, but with pharma jumping ship asap and the loss of the NY banking mecca, what industry is going to employ people at the income levels needed to maintain the ststus quo. What industy is going to employ these people in any form, as the number of jobs is shrinking?
Why do some folks assume that a new century job works program would be industrial-based or brick-and-mortar constructions?
We might as well get something for the 700-billion-plus in taxpayer dollars.
A project could be a new banking system (with both fee-less and fee-driven componenets), together with a health care management system (the back-end bones for global healthcare) riding on a brand spanking new global communications system (better internet).
Usage will be farmed out with rents for a period accruing to each nation; eventually, privatization based on user success.
Wow, now that’s depressing. I guess Obama better start building plan for bigger hoover dam. Also heard on bloomberg in morning that Obama might try to put trade barriers with China by some kind of Carbon tax. It seems, next 3 years are going to be hell.
“just found an interesting chart”
kettle,
Yep, that puts us at 1931.
Park Street in Montclair near train. Reduced to 799k. Currently priced below 71k below assessment. Bring all offers.
20k in taxes. Ouch.
http://newmls.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?report=clientfull&Id=37861048_6166
BC Bob, 62
SO 2011 should be the worst period is we follow that pattern. I think 2011 to 2013 is likely to be the bottom and then a very slow flat ride up for a decade or so
“What is an alternative jobless rate?”
The SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated “discouraged workers” defined away during the Clinton Administration added to the existing BLS estimates of level U-6 unemployment.
“Only a govt blackbox can create jobs, over the last 8 months, in industries that are currently in a depression.”
With the way we count jobs, not FTEs but people working any time in any given reporting period, it is quite easy for a company to cut 10 people, and replace them with 20 1/2 time employees to avoid OT and benefits, and the govt would report this as a doubling of employment.
#63 kettle: Exactly. So it is amazing to me that so many sellers in NJ, still do not get it.
I think part of the problem is that there are still houses here and there selling for 2005/06 peak prices, (shocking as that is to me), and that gives false hope to would be sellers.
24 JIM Says:
Jim, gsmls still has the # of properties (35,661), it is just inserted into the text and not as obvious.
#7 I’ve received at least one credit card application per day for the last week. Funny, I thought I was a deadbeat – you know – I pay it off in full every month.
“What is an alternative jobless rate?”
kettle,
I know. Was just having fun with it.
“What industy is going to employ these people in any form, as the number of jobs is shrinking?”
That’s easy. The NJ State Government.
Ford posts $3B operating loss
Automaker announces further job cuts, other cost savings as it tries to stem losses.
Ford said it would cut salaried employment costs by 10%!!!
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/07/news/companies/automakers_3q_results/index.htm?postversion=2008110708
O must be at economic summit, says former World Bank chief
Any thoughts on what will be outcome of this summit? Will other countries push New Bretton Woods III? Any impacts.
O must be at economic summit, says former World Bank chief
Any thoughts on what will be outcome of this summit? Will other countries push New Bretton Woods III? Any impacts.
#71 Stu: I know it is months early, but remember Vote yes for your school budget next April, now more than ever. It is important that ALL Spending be improved. VOTE YES!!!!
Especially in this economic environment it is even more important that we VOTE YES, so that we may give our children all the tools they need to succeed.
pat 64
Thats a possibility but we will need some sort of productive work that generates industrial demand not just paper demand. A nation needs an industrial core to be successful long term.
Cindy Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 8:26 am
I just heard the Bloomberg reporter say “the stock was falling like a stone..” Las Vegas Sands…
This is what they meant….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1j823QH6cU
#50
Thanks Clot for your expertise. I had no intention of buying back anything from the owners I just couldn’t believe the agent even said that!!!!
The property is an old house that was purchased in 2003. I imagine the owners got a huge mortgage (the mortgage is more than double the purchase price) by telling the lender that they were restoring the house but instead took the money and bought another house as well as I’m sure vacations, plasma TV.s etc. And the wife is an attorney!!!
Real Estate for the Albani & Bost set:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aWVv.Qzz7XN0&refer=us
Ket, think about it. If you were an investor, let’s say from somewhere in the Middle East, what project would you be most likely to participate in: a giant widget factory in Indiana, or the backbone of a new international health care management system that included pre-translated patient records and low-cost country sourcing?
BC,
sorry, sarcasm meter is out of order today…..
64#, pat, brilliant ideas. but why is the money? with this market decline, you will see a lot of tax loss write-off in next few years. there are only two ways out:
1) issue more bonds;
2) ask buffett etc donate all their money to uncle sam. instead.
Basically all I hear is good news today for stock market!!!! GM and Ford can’t cry poverty in good times, record unemployment is a good thing. Germany would not let BMW and Mercedes go bankrupt at same time, Japan would not let Toyota and Honda go bankrupt same time. Both Germany and Japan’s govt pay the medical bills for eveyone and those carmakers have an unfair advantage. GM/Ford will get money today!!!! Stocks will be UP!!! Even 3-5 years will alow some Smartnotes to mature so as not to crush widows and ophans and keep banks from having to bring massive amounts of GM/Ford bonds onto balance sheets at a value of zero while people who wrote CDS on US automakers go bankrupt. The unemployment figures will get us 1% Fed Funds soon. Record low rates, USG picking up some of healthcare tab at GM combined with low fuel with give GM/Ford some breathing room for a few years. Next time they run into trouble in a good economy let them go under.
82#, we are alredy in 1%. we will in in 0% soon.
>The unemployment figures will get us 1% Fed Funds soon.
Pat,
Where do the patients who will be paying to use this new system get their money from? The government? Where does the tax payer get the money from in order to hand to the government if there is no employment readily available.
Saying a service based system will employ the people who will then use that same money to pay for said system is the equivalent of a perpetual motion machine.
At the base of any system you need a value generating industry. whether that is steel production, electronics manufacturing, or even high tech R&D, doesn’t matter.
The smart thing for the US to do would be to focus on becoming an R&D power house. we still have a very slight advantage in that field.
coast (77)-
Mortgage fraud goes easier- and you can steal a lot more money- when an attorney is involved.
When an attorney is one of the buyers? Ka-ching!
http://notes.clovisusd.k12.ca.us/news/cusdtoday.nsf/50b4fc7834887f2688256af400775918/b872f62d89a48d68882574400065649a?OpenDocument
We need more programs like this…
“Five District high schools receive total of $18 million for vocational education enhancement”
interesting contrast…….
Iceland keeps interest rates at 18%
Iceland’s central bank on Thursday said it would keep its key interest rate at 18 per cent, after raising the rates at the end of October. Inflation at the end of October hit almost 16 per cent, and could climb to 20 per cent early next year, the central bank said in its monetary bulletin that also projected that GDP would drop by over 8 per cent in 2009.
Stabilizing the Icelandic currency would bring down inflation and rates the bank said, adding that extending current wage agreements without further wage hikes was a factor. The central bank, or Sedlabanki, raised interest rates from 12 to 18 per cent on October 28. In mid-October it had cut the rates from 15.5 per cent to 12 per cent.
Bank of England Cuts Interest Rate by 1.5 Points to Lowest Level Since 1955
The Bank of England unexpectedly cut the benchmark interest rate by 1.5 percentage points to the lowest since the 1950s as policy makers tried to limit damage caused by the worst banking crisis in almost a century. The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Mervyn King, reduced the bank rate to 3 percent, the biggest single step in more than a decade. The move was predicted by none of the 60 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
How much better the infrastructure if health care is dealt with.
How much better the infrastructure if communications is not an issue.
Building blocks are not always made of concrete.
chi (78)-
See? All that digging in the mines wasn’t for naught…
Now, we just need to replace the USD with pieces of eight.
“The unemployment figures will get us 1% Fed Funds soon”
Hey John, who knows, maybe the Dow will get to 8,700 someday?
Bi,
Excuse John, he’s absorbing too many #’s.
But King Henry said the tax payer would make money on the deal….. I’m shocked!
AIG Sales May Not Repay U.S. Loan, Forcing New Deal
American International Group Inc., the insurer taken over by the U.S. government, may have to renegotiate terms of its $85 billion rescue as the company struggles to find buyers for some of its units. “It may make sense and be pragmatic for the government to renegotiate,” said David Havens, a UBS AG credit analyst in Stamford, Connecticut. The loan’s interest rate “makes it extraordinarily difficult for AIG to fix itself,” he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aUwsAnbgRbNo&refer=us
Pat (79)-
Is smuggling a homemade nuclear device into the US and detonating it one of the choices?
“If you were an investor, let’s say from somewhere in the Middle East, what project would you be most likely to participate in: a giant widget factory in Indiana, or the backbone of a new international health care management system that included pre-translated patient records and low-cost country sourcing?”
Sorry, Pat. I cannot see any Middle East investor engaging the US in a way that is not parasitic or destructive to us.
The bottom line is: these people hate us. I only expect that to intensify as we wean ourselves from their brown, slimy crack.
clott 92,
Well that could spur the construction industry. That is if you dont mind absorbing a few rads while you work.
What the new president will do to keep people in homes and improve housing
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Economic concerns were at the forefront of voters’ minds this week. And for many Americans, those financial issues begin at home.
A foreclosure moratorium may not have much effect in the long term, said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.
But bankruptcy reform, also supported by Obama, could help at least some homeowners, Baker said. The proposal would allow bankruptcy courts to modify an individual’s mortgage payments; currently, bankruptcy judges are prevented from making these alterations.
On his campaign Web site, the next president says that the subprime mortgage industry, “which has engaged in dangerous and sometimes unscrupulous business practices, should not be shielded by outdated federal law.”
clott
“as we wean ourselves from their brown, slimy crack.”
I hope you were referring to oil…..
Cindy (86)-
Exactly. I’m on the board of our local Vo-Tech, and even in the current climate, we’re placing our grads in good jobs and/or seeing them further their educations in meaningful ways (as in, not following a liberal arts path at Beer Bong State).
Ground everybody in physical sciences and vocational training. Once it reaches critical mass, you now have thinking people producing goods and services of tangible value.
Any other path is a very expensive jerk-off.
#83 bi:we are alredy in 1%. we will in in 0% soon.
And than??
What Happens when Countries Go Bankrupt?
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,druck-588419,00.html
Dean Baker on the Global Financial Crisis
(96) Clot – My district is totally behind vocational education. They are trying for every grant out there. They’re going to teach kids to weld!
vodka (94)-
Bet the guys who helped contained Chernobyl got at least time-and-a-half.
Too bad they came out of it like microwave Chicken Kiev.
#82 John: I liked it better when you awer a Wall St tough guy;this groveling is becoming very unbecoming.
cindy, clott,
I agree 100% w/ the vo-tec article.
a friend of mine makes 90K as a specialty welder and can pull down more if he wants over time. He is as close to recession proof as you can get as there is a very limited # of people with his skills.
Cindy (100)-
I wish I knew how to weld. And rebuild a car engine. And do basic plumbing.
Kettle/Clot – AND – what an incentive to keep kids in school. They are actually going to learn something useful…
3b (102)-
If John is groveling, imagine what the rest of the Street is doing.
Must look like a giant glory hole inside some of these places.
Cindy (105)-
I have yet to see anything else that makes gangbangers stop fighting.
http://businessstreetonline.com/news.php?ax=v&n=10&id=10&nid=602
and a new “green” building on campas…
interesting stat…
Per rough calculations a $144 billion tab for AIG would equal $1888 per federal income taxpayer in the US.
Clot 101,
the nice thing is they only had a 30 minute work day. of course that 30 minutes still knocked off a good portion of your life span.
(107) Right On, Clot. We are very pragmatic and conservative here. I feel my district knew about the financial problems years before other districts. (No raises for 2 years running.) BUT the positive is that they put out for these grants way ahead of the curve…
Clott
“# Clotpoll Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 9:38 am
I have yet to see anything else that makes gangbangers stop fighting.”
http://tinyurl.com/5ppx39
Don’t worry folks Al Gore and his merry band
have hired TY Pennington and his merry band to
makeover those ugly power plants.
Extreme Makeover: Nuclear Power Plant Edition
http://greeninc.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/07/extreme-makeover-nuclear-power-plant-edition/?scp=1&sq=Three%20Mile%20Island&st=cse
I’d trust Homer Simpson before I trusted that guy from Extreme Makeover.
The Daily Municipal Comment November 7, 2008 by Michael E. Lane
This historic week ended with more reminders of the grim economy facing the new Administration. The jobs creation number fell more than forecast, to a loss of 240,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate spiked to 6.5%, from 6.1%. These numbers may result in a further rate cut by the Fed as it concentrates on helping to revive the economy and is less concerned with inflation. The municipal market continued perform well this week. New issues are being priced to sell and the market is getting through the backlog with any apparent stress. For the week, the Bond Buyer’s 20-Bond G.O. Index fell 11 basis points, to 5.24%. Demand from retail investors remains strong, especially as short term money market yields contract and investors needing income go further out on the curve. The market is opening quietly this morning after a strong performance Thursday, especially on the short end.
Sean,
forget aesthetics. Just build 4 or 5 gigawatt , air cooled pebble bed reactors in the middle of the nevada desert and pipe the electricity out using super high voltage DC transmittion lines.
problem solved and 0 potential for meltdown.
Kettle1 – The problem with 0 is that it does not exist.
Why do some folks assume that a new century job works program would be industrial-based or brick-and-mortar constructions?
Because economies actually need to produce things. We can’t simply do services for each other while buying all of our material things from other countries.
Sean,
Actually it can exist, depends on the reactor design.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pebble_bed_reactor
Ref 82: “Both Germany and Japan’s govt pay the medical bills for eveyone and those carmakers have an unfair advantage. GM/Ford will get money today!!!!”
Germany does not pay for everyone’s health care. I’ve lived here 31 years and as a cancer survivor I have more experience with the German medical system than is healthy. After a famous university hospital nearly killed me by neglect, I returned to NJ for treatment and am glad to report I’m still here 12 years later. While Germany has government mandated and funded health insurance, what it pays and what it pays for is strictly controlled, in other words, the government rations health care, just like it is rationed in the UK, France, Canada, etc. A significant number of those that can afford it in Germany have private health insurance because you can’t get the services and care you need under the government’s “free” plan. It’s a two class system and the system caters to the wealthy and ignors those insured by the state.
I am playing the Feds game. Wipe the common shareholders out and protect the bondholders. In the past few months I bought SOV, NCC, CIT, GM and Ford bonds at big discounts clipped the coupons and watched big ben bal them out. My only mistake was not buying a put on the underlying bonds so I could cash out both ways when the bond pops and the stock drops. Plus he will bail out the states so I nailed some 6% coupon long term munis mid october when the sky was falling. I agree that common stocks are crazy short term but I still think even with a three to five year recession keep plowing into equities in your 401K long term they are up and long term all this liqudity and 1 percent inflation will come back and long term bonds will sink and stocks will soar. Yesterday the people who know told me hedgies were dumping were also buying for the first time in a long time all blue chips and all said it may drop further but who cares it is getting close to bottom so I am sticking my toes in on down days.
#48 Cindy – Just pulled Galbraith’s “The Great Crash – 1929” off the shelf. Two chapter titles: “In Goldman Sachs We Trust” and “The Twilight of Illusion.” What is old is new again.
120 so even better, govt provides free shoddy health care in germany and it shorten lifes expectancies. GM pays 100% for good medical which extends life and then gives you a pension for life. Not to smart.
Sean,
I read the article, and researched the players…
I don’t see anything about Al Gore being involved at all?
I must have missed it?
122: The health care is not free. If we had the tax rates Germans pay for all their free stuff (50% direct, about 66% direct and indirect) most Americans would resort to the underground economy.
Mercedes and BMW have a much lower worker health care cost for current workers and have no responsiblity for retired workers. That is a big advantage.
“but who cares it is getting close to bottom so I am sticking my toes in on down days.”
John [121],
Another temporary bottom or THE bottom? Glad to hear that you are a market timing expert. I don’t know anybody else who is?
I am doing the opposite, sticking my toes in on big rallies, joined at the hip with low volume. Once, [if], the corresponding volume changes, I’ll adjust. There are many more rallies to come.
Why todays pop?
[12] DL,
My favorite (gag) part of that story was:
“In addition, [Nutter] said he will announce within the next week a proposal for how the U.S. Treasury can use its authority under the $700 billion financial rescue package to provide immediate help to Philadelphia and other urban areas harmed by the financial crisis.
Nutter also said he will ask President-elect Obama, in light of his unique position as a both sitting senator and the next president, to push immediately for legislation to help cities cope with the fiscal crisis.”
First, are we surprised that, after the Big 3 sought their bailout, now Philly wants to be treated like a bank and get TARP money?
Second, Nutter backed Clinton in the primary. Wonder how Emanuel will treat that?
kettle,
do you think they could put a spigot at the side of the reactor so we could put our mouths on it and inhale?
-inhales-
[in squeaky voice] ’cause man, that would be really cool!
John (121)-
“I still think even with a three to five year recession keep plowing into equities in your 401K long term they are up”
– John, have you looked at the Nikkei for the last 20 years? What do you think will be different over here considering the fact that we are following the same policies?
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_spine/archive/2008/10/19/the-japanese-debt-went-to-100-of-its-gdp-is-this-the-kabuki-dance-that-the-us-is-playing.aspx
Our Embassy in Kyiv organizes tours to Chernobyl. I had lunch in Lviv, about 40 kms south of the reactor and noticed nothing unusual except that our host had three hands.
“Why todays pop?”
he,
Getting ready for a press conference. There’s a bull market in press conferences.
HEHEHE (127)-
“Why todays pop?”
– Two days of heavy selling? Falling Knife Catchers?
Honestly, there are so many variables in this market – hedge funds liquidating, carry trade unwinding, commodities destruction, government intervention – it is very difficult to predict the day-to-day moves for me. The trend is down and that is all I care about.
I think we are still in the denial stage, overheard too many conversations about people not looking at their brokerage accounts.
Unlike John, WB admits that he is not a market timer;
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=GS
Who cares, 401k, SS and RE appreciation are pipe dreams anyhow. We all have to work till we die and the cash we have liquid is the only real money we have anyhow. Plus think about it you can only put 15.5K in a 401k a year and once you buy your house that is it. In your late 40’s and 50’s your should be puting away like 40K a year in your taxable accounts to retire, that is the nut you got to watch.
News from Detroit – Family member is an engineer for one of the Big Three. Wife is pulling the covers over her head and refuses to believe he will probably lose his job and continues to spend like a wild woman. She is nasty to other family members to the point that they are about to give up on her. Sadly, I imagine this is being played out in too many living rooms. Expect to see a rise in family violence and divorce as this thing keeps going.
Converations with who? Your lazy brother in law, hair stylist and mother-in-law. The players have been out of the market since october 2007 are dipping their toes. Not all at once but plan to get back in slowly over next year. Those are the only people who matter. Ma and Pa kettle with their 40K mad money ain’t gonna move the market.
Heil Henry;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNmcf4Y3lGM&ref=patrick.net
Spam,
Sure, why not. 2000 degree helium shouldnt be a problem. It will clear your sinus’ anyway…..
I am actually very serious about the reactors. The supporting industries we would have to build would be a huge boon to the US economy and such a project has a large number of secondary benefits.
And use the old nuclear test ranges in Nevada as the site for the reactors. No one should complain about that
#132 Victorian:I think we are still in the denial stage
I think we are past the denial stage, and into the fear stage.
As far as RE, I dd not know one person who now even talks about it;perhaps that is denial,
Re#123 Spam- You will never really know who the real players are but I can you for certain a bunch of VCs from California are running the Green movement.
Al Gore is the mouthpiece for green “incorporated” movement. He personally has
$35 million invested with hedge fund Capricorn Investment Group and others.
He has admitted to the Associated Press that his plan relies on nuclear power somewhat but he only quotes about 20% which is the current supply today.
They are some big player heavily invested in this next bubble forming, Obama may even appoint Gore to some kind of Green Energy Czar job, to get the Carbon Taxes going here in the USA.
http://eastbay.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/stories/2008/11/03/story2.html
Re#123 Spam- You will never really know who the real players are but I can you for certain a bunch of VCs from California are running the Green movement.
Al Gore is the mouthpiece for green “incorporated” movement. He personally has
$35 million invested with hedge fund Capricorn Investment Group and others.
He has admitted to the Associated Press that his plan relies on nuclear power somewhat but he only quotes about 20% which is the current supply today.
They are some big player heavily invested in this next bubble forming, O Man may even appoint Gore to some kind of Green Energy Czar job, to get the Carbon Taxes going here in the USA.
http://eastbay.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/stories/2008/11/03/story2.html
“Ma and Pa kettle with their 40K mad money ain’t gonna move the market.”
– But Ma and Pa Kettle are the ones who will be buying the goods produced by these companies. The E in the P/E is not going to to look for the next year. Prices have to adjust accordingly.
“The E in the P/E”
Vic,
Like that one!
3b,
As far as RE, I dd not know one person who now even talks about it;perhaps that is denial,
So true. We don’t even talk about RE here!
Vic,BC
So all you get is a 3% pop out of holding a meeting at a hotel with a bunch of CEO’s, political bigs and the president elect. What is this country coming to?
They are probably all just sitting around a table debating what to order for lunch.
Actually I am hoping that’s what they are doing as there’s less chance they’ll f things up worse.
“They are probably all just sitting around a table debating what to order for lunch.”
My guess is that they are all figuring out how to maintain their disgusting bonus structure without it being revealed to the populace.
So true. We don’t even talk about RE here!
Bottom in RE will be in when nobody cares about it anymore. I’m not talking about Joe Sixpack alone, I’m talking about here.
When nobody comes here anymore, the bottom is in.
Grim,
You are so correct.
Grim,
Even at bottom you will still have people here, the chat is too interesting to miss even when off topic
GS is predicting unemployment at 8.5% by end of next year, even higher in 2010.
#153 grim: As long as you keep this site, many of us will continue to be here.
It was a refuge of sanity, when the entire outside world was high on real estate.
From Bloomberg:
Goldman Forecasts Deepest Recession Since Reagan Era
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecast the deepest U.S. economic contraction since the recession of 1982 after the unemployment rate climbed to the highest level in 14 years and payrolls tumbled for a 10th consecutive month.
The economy will shrink 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter and 2 percent in the first quarter, compared with previous estimates of 2 percent and 1 percent, Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a research note today. That would be the largest back-to-back quarterly contraction since the start of the second year of Ronald Reagan’s presidency.
The forecasts “reflect the accumulation of evidence that U.S. domestic demand and production continue to fall sharply,” Hatzius, chief U.S. economist, wrote. “The persistence of economic weakness will keep pressure on policymakers to provide additional stimulus to the economy.”
The unemployment rate will likely climb to 8.5 percent by the end of 2009, compared with a prior estimate of 8 percent. Goldman also added a half-percentage point to its forecast for a reduction in the Fed’s target rate for overnight loans between banks by year-end to 0.50 percent.
Still very interested in RE. Planning to buy next year in NJ. The links alone are worth the read.
When nobody comes here anymore, the bottom is in.
grim,
You absolutely right. We won’t be on your blog because me and clot would be busy whealing and dealing and everyone else would have bought their house and homes would be looked as shelter and not as retirement funds or investments strategies.
I participate here because I have a man-crush for Frank.
Myron Scholes, the 1997 Noble Prize Winning Genius involved in the demise of Long Term Capital Management has done it again. Scholes’s Platinum Grove Fund Halts Withdrawals After Losses.
Platinum Grove Asset Management LP, the hedge-fund firm co-founded by Nobel laureate Myron Scholes, temporarily stopped investor withdrawals from its biggest fund after it lost 29 percent in the first half of October.
The decline left Platinum Grove Contingent Master fund with a 38 percent loss this year through Oct. 15, according to investors. Funds employing a similar approach of exploiting differences in the value of related securities fell 14 percent last month and 30 percent this year, according to data compiled by Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWQVwbD5Hfxw&refer=home
re: #144 – kettle1 “supporting industries we would have to build”
The USA is now headed to 50% Nuclear or perhaps more over the next decade, we will get a token windfarm or two out of it.
The ink is already dry on the contracts Areva the French Nuclear powerhouse set up a joint venture with Northrop Grumman to build a parts factory at its shipyard at Newport News, Virginia. Northrop Grumman is retooling from War to Energy. The Japs have inked deals for their pressure reactors, Constellation energy and the French have already signed the paperwork and are already building plants for Uranium in Idaho.
I recently was in France and little mideval places like Chinon have huge Nuclear facilities, the French now run their country on 70% Nuclear, they aren’t afraid of it and in fact is a source of pride. The good old USA under the President O and Czar Gore will see to it that this happens.
It’s Lovely! I’ll Take It!
Stu,
I really run this blog so that John can have an outlet for his stories. Real estate, finance, politics, and strollers are just the chaff to fill the time between his tales.
Sean,
Where does France dump their spent Uranium?
Conforming loan limits stay at $417k for 2009, high-cost loan limits reduced from 125% of local price median to 115%. Maximum limit reduced from $729,750 to $625,500.
Stu – if you vist France stay far away from
La Hague near the German border, they have some enorums reprocessing facilitles for Nuke waste it is turned into something else perhaps Brie cheese.
Don’t visit Idaho anytime soon either, President O and Czar/Kommisar Gore will see to it that we reprocess nuclear fuel as well, perhaps we will turn it into cheese dip.
Sean,
Reprocessing U is significantly more expensive than storing it. Therefore, I expect the government to reprocess it.
Nice 4 billion loss for GM, rock on baby!
Stu – The rusty storage pools over in bucolic Buchanan NY are bound to keep the real estate prices low, I don’t think they partipated in the Housing bubble.
Guys,
Quick question:
We’re now seeing banks, flippers and developers either holding or trying to unload property on which a structure has already been erected.
Have there been any land speculators during the bubble? That now, or will soon, be unloading residentialy zoned undeveloped land? or land plots in existing towns?
What is the outlook for land prices? Also, will there be any intermediary parties trapped with bare land that they will have to liquidate over the next two years? Interested in Bergen county.
Thanks all.
z
My wife has officially banned me from open houses and house hunting until December 2010. All I have left is to play my time with my downpayment in bonds and Cds. I am officially out of corp bonds so all I am left with is buying Munis when I see a cheap one and CDs, very boring. Hard to talk about real estate when no one is buying or selling and prices are still headed down.
Sean,
Reprocessing is critical to a well developed nuke infrastructure.
Most of the so called waste from a nuke reactor is actually prime fuel material mixed with by products.
The majority of the spent fuel in the us that is considered waste could easily resupply most of our reactors if reprocessed. that is considered waste could easily resupply most of our reactors if reprocessed.
I have no illusions and know that reprocessing is messy and toxic. However i still think it is one of the best options
May I change the topic a little? What do you think of looking into short sales in next year or two? I know there are a lot of preforeclosures and foreclusures in tristate area and wondered if this is gettting more doable. What’s the best way to do this?
Land prices have been holding up on Long Island but lately I see some starting to move. My cousin last time RE tanked at the absolute bottom bought a builder lot out in the hamptons and a few years later when he had money, rates were low and RE was hot he built his dream house on his 40K lot.
stu,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COGEMA_La_Hague_site
The end waste products are generally stored on site at the reactor location.
Europe does not have a long terms storage facility that is fully operational.
RE #176:
Stop, I’m salivating for a kill like that. If they all were all that easy.
The B x A spread will at some point narrow and volume will kick in. The definition of “some point” is the 1,000,000 question.
Kettle1:
I’m a big fan of nuclear as well, but I still think that NG powered energy generation should be a large part of our mix. I don’t believe the clean-coal technology is a solution because the mining of coal is too exploitative. Nukes will always suffer unfairly from Nimbyism. Oil? Fuggedaboutit! NG? We got plenty of it (and mostly on land) and it burns clean. Last I looked it was selling for under $6.
re: #175 helen pachec – re: short sales and forclosures. There is a big unknown which is gov’t intervention in the housing crisis.
I have been reading lately that under the TARP program the Gov’t will put $500 Billion towards playing the monthy mortgage payment for three years for those heading towards forclosure.
All eyes are on DC now, and what the gang of 535 are going to do. The smart money is still on the sidelines.
sean 180,
The gov program to pay the mortgage is actually a loan that must be paid back. Now you are taking a loan to pay a loan and must pay back both. You are actually worse off in the end by using such a program.
#167
“Conforming loan limits stay at $417k for 2009, high-cost loan limits reduced from 125% of local price median to 115%. Maximum limit reduced from $729,750 to $625,500.”
was new law passed?
Kettle1 – everyone knows when you borrow directly from the govn’t you are insolvent and will never pay the money back.
#183
“everyone knows when you borrow directly from the govn’t you are insolvent and will never pay the money back.”
agree. plan is just a means of buying time to drag out the forced selloffs
http://www.law.com/jsp/article.jsp?id=1202425838045&rss=newswire
The plan is a scheme to keep banks on life support.
skep 167 http://www.ofheo.gov/media/cll/HighCostLoanLimits2009.pdf
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ai7PX36RigYI&refer=home
Pending Sales of Existing Homes
wow, $625k limit means shave another 10% off NYC area prices
Never fear, the NAR is on it.
http://www.gazettes.com/articles/2008/11/07/business/doc4911f7a7aca4b598966887.txt
Is it me, or is it weird to be reading real estate stuff again?
I’m hearing twilight zone music.
For anyone who is interested, B.O.’s digs:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/birds-eye-view-map/50904051_zpid#birds-eye-view
For anyone who is interested, B.O.’s digs:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/birds-eye-view-map/50904051_zpid#birds-eye-view
“Birth/Death Model In Outer Space”
“Once again was an extremely weak jobs report. And once again the Birth/Death Model assumptions are absurd. The birth/death adjustments have been in deep outer space every month this year except for January and July.”
“Every month I say the same nearly the same thing. The only difference is the numbers change slightly. Here it is again: The BLS should be embarrassed to report this data.”
“Repeating what I have been saying for months now, virtually no one can possibly believe this data. The data is so bad, I doubt those at the BLS even believe it. But that is what their model says so that is what they report.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
It looks like it will drive the USSS nuts. I suspect they will sell it before long.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — General Motors shook an already embattled auto industry Friday as it reported a huge loss that was much worse than expected and warned it is in danger of running out of cash in the coming months.
GM, the nation’s largest automaker, reported it lost $4.2 billion, or $7.35 a share, excluding special items. That’s up from the loss $1.6 billion or $2.86 a share it reported a year earlier and was far worse than the forecast of analysts surveyed by earnings tracker Thomson Reuters, which had forecast a loss of $3.70 a share.
But the most shocking news came in its statements about its cash position. GM said it had burned through $6.9 billion during the quarter and warned that it “will approach the minimum amount necessary to operate its business” during the current quarter.
From the AP:
Pending home sales fell 4.6 percent in September
Pending U.S. home sales fell more than expected in September, after posting a big jump in the previous month.
The National Association of Realtors said Friday that its seasonally adjusted index of pending sales for existing homes fell 4.6 percent to a reading of 89.2. That’s down from an upwardly revised August reading of 93.5.
Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected a September reading of 90.6.
The index was 1.6 percent above year-ago levels. It sunk to a record low of 83 in March, and stood at 87.8 in September 2007.
“When nobody comes here anymore, the bottom is in.”
“When nobody comes here anymore, the bottom is in.”
Pending home sales down HUGE in the Northeast, down 16.8% from last month and down 9.4% year over year.
“When nobody comes here anymore, the bottom is in.”
Then you can start timetobuynjre.com
Just the kind of firm I’d like to see turned into a commercial bank, funded by the treasury:
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services on Friday lowered GMAC LLC’s long-term counterparty credit rating to CCC from B- and the long-term counterparty credit rating on GMAC’s subsidiary, Residential Capital LLC, to CCC- from CCC+. “The ratings actions follow the companies’ third-quarter earnings release that indicates continued intense financial stress at both entities,” said John Bartko, an S&P credit analyst. The outlooks for GMAC and Residential Capital LLC are negative. CCC-grade ratings are categorized as poor quality and viewed as “may default.”
“Can you contact one of your buddies and ask? Much appreciated”
Perhaps in the dreams of a president who does not want to go down in history as George Herbert Hoover Bush.
Grim,
It sounds like GMAC is well qualified to be a bank.
#196 – Kettle1 – That GM news is pretty grim. GM is saying that they won’t have enough cash after the end of the 4thQ. They’ve drawn down all of their credit.
I know everyone is expecting the bailout, but if GM goes we have serious serious problems.
…. thank God Ford and Chrysler are doing well.
Bankruptcy might be the only way out for GM. They’re saddled by the benefits packages for unions and all will be up for renegotiating after BK.
Let an automaker die, just one though. A sacrificial lamb of sorts. Through their death the others may survive. The others will take on additional market share and profits in the industry may increase as overcapacity is eliminated.
i’m real excited to see who’s right:
John
or
BC/Clot/Stu
I guess John has turned positive in recent weeks, for what reason I do not know. The other three guys, who haven’t been wrong really about anything in the last 2 years (that i’ve been reading) are a bit more negative.
Not to mention the fact that it would be a sobering bow-shot for the UAW.
Complete liquidation is tough to foresee. I say we see GM and Ford on a Slimfast diet after a bankruptcy.
Q: Will the US ever see bank rates at 6-7% again? Will CD rates spike up t 10%?
Or are we in such deep do-do as a consumer society that the Govt wont want us holding/hording $, so they will never jack those rates up again?
September NJMLS Bergen County Data
Year Med$ #Sold #U/C
1991 $200,000 620 552
1992 $195,000 611 622
1993 $209,750 770 776
1994 $205,000 756 642
1995 $200,000 721 689
1996 $190,000 705 690
1997 $210,000 841 770
1998 $218,500 886 755
1999 $236,599 842 598
2000 $260,000 803 770
2001 $298,250 732 587
2002 $342,000 828 774
2003 $372,000 1039 908
2004 $410,000 952 885
2005 $489,965 951 832
2006 $450,000 681 695
2007 $472,500 590 503
2008 $417,000 543 512
Nationalization! Not just for Venezuela anymore. All hail the glorious national automaker, pride of the U.S.S.A.
And we thought US automakers did a poor job of pushing out product. Imagine a nationally owned US automaker?
I say that the moral hazard in saving GM is unprecedented. If the reason GM can’t compete on a global level is due to their pension obligations, then what is the impact to all of the state and government workers who will also come to the trough once the tax revenues dry up. Greetings, Professor Falcon.
We really are turning Japanese!
I said it yesterday and I’ll say it again today. “Short is the new long.”
Shore Guy 192 – Those are fairly recent digs. After his keynote at the 2004 convention, the book royalties started pouring in.
Up until then, he lived in a modest apartment in Hyde Park. Stu and I have seen this first hand, as Gator’s cousin still lives in the same building.
My cousin has a bit of an illustrious history herself, but that is an entirely different (non-John) story.
And we thought US automakers did a poor job of pushing out product. Imagine a nationally owned US automaker?
Dodge trucks per capita is a perfectly fine measure of economic growth. Dah comrade, as long as tractors per capita is growing, the sun shall never set on mother Russia.
#207 – Letting one go could cause some very large ripples. Even outside of Detroit the lay-offs from the dealer networks could be substantial. How many mechanics at GM dealers would go? Sales-creatures? Advertising? etc.
I’m not sure if there is the political will power to allow this to happen. Actually, I know there isn’t, but I don’t see how they can be saved.
I prefer Biden’s place:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/birds-eye-view-map/72996610_zpid#birds-eye-view
After looking at O’s modest homestead, it can be safe to say that I doubt VP Joe will be asking him for a loan.
Greetings, Professor Falcon.
Stu-man,
Nobody is going to take your economic theories seriously if you don’t get your War Games references correct. Falken, not Falcon. C’mon, I expected better from you.
Gator,
I know the street, a little teardrop street around a little park just a stone’s throw from Lakeshore Drive. It is only a few blocks, really, from the current house.
I prefer Biden’s place
$1.5m in Delaware? That place has got to be a palace.
Actually, I know there isn’t, but I don’t see how they can be saved.
Overcapacity is a b-tch, especially if you are in the marginal position.
Shore 223 – That’s correct. The building has lots of charm and character, but not very fancy. And somewhere in the neighborhood is some great middle eastern food. My cousin brought in a feast for us the last time we visited.
My cousin told us that when Obama’s girls said goodbye to her, and she mentioned that they were moving into a nice, new house, the little one told her “Oh no. It’s way too big!”
The only other alternative is to subsidize the US auto industry.
I prefer Senator McCane’s home.
http://tinyurl.com/McCaneHouse
“All hail the glorious national automaker, pride of the U.S.S.A.”
Poor Holland Michigan. Chris Craft had the bad luck to go under back in the 70s.
grim, maybe we should have Bernanke play a bunch of games of tic-tac-toe to try to teach him that he can’t win.
Stu,
Which one? lol
Grim,
“Falcon – Falken”
I released the error in my ways, just after I hit that ‘Submit Comment’ button. Really!
East View Park, as I recall.
released = realized. Same thing just happened again!
I give up :(
Shore:
You are too funny!
“Which one? lol”
Interesting Editorial on why a GM/Chrysler bailout will fail w/out also a BK filing:
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/editorial-why-the-gmcerberuschrysler-bailout-is-bad-for-taxpayers-and-doomed-to-fail-without-the-benefits-of-a-chapter-11-filing-for-both-chrysler-and-gm/
Hat tip CR.
From Crains:
Report: Metro area vacancy rate to hit 17.6%
In the next year, commercial vacancies for the New York metropolitan area will surge to 17.6%, up from today’s 12% rate, according to a revised forecast issued Monday by Property & Portfolio Research Inc.
…
“Our expectations changed, considering the events of the last few months, which are pretty much unprecedented,” said Andy Joynt, a real estate economist at the firm. “It’s a pretty severe downturn that we’re expecting.”
commercial vacancies for the New York metropolitan area
Must be a misprint, they must be talking about the much more commonly used NY Metro ex. NY Metro measure. After all, we can’t discount the proximity of this metro area to NY.
are those trees or Michelle’s bush?
Shore Guy Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
For anyone who is interested, B.O.’s digs:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/birds-eye-view-map/50904051_zpid#birds-eye-view
I love the detail De puts up on the web re RE. THIS is what NJ should do.
http://nccde.org/parcelview/ParcelDetails.aspx?ParcelKey=30419
Biden’s place, by the way.
I propose a new stimulus package based on the movie Brewster’s Millions.
Everyone is given a million dollars to spend, but with the caveat that they can’t have anything to show for it after everything is gone. It can’t be horded, can’t be given away, and can’t be destroyed. It must be spent in such a way that every penny is consumed. Americans are experts in this. Why haven’t Dodd and Frank proposed this yet?
I just realized that this was the American economic model of the past 10 years. God help us.
“commercial vacancies for the New York metropolitan area”
So how long will it be before the distant communities that once heralded themselves as valuable due to their proximity to New York change their story to one where they now consider their great distance away from New York a positive attribute?
233 Shore -Correct again
GM Bankruptcy is just a boomdoogle for lawyers, it is a very bad and stupid choice. A better choice would be govt intervention kinda like what FDIC does to a failed bank. Something like GM shareholders are barred from dividend for five years, perf shareholders get .25% of the dividend for 5 yeaars and bondholders get 50% of their interest payments for five years and at maturity gets 80% of principal. That combined with a large US Govt CP loan or allowing them to sell their tax loss to a profitable company with some type of tax rebate for people who buy GM will get them back from death from now without distroying billions of dollars and millions of job losses. That article was written by a bankruptcy attorney that says GM should declare bankruptcy.
“Everyone is given a million dollars to spend, but with the caveat that they can’t have anything to show for it after everything is gone.”
Oh, so we need to start a bank or an auto manufacturing company?
Chart of riches data from post 212
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_lsF4HSdqo04/SRSQcKbMITI/AAAAAAAAAwE/2h6vAktwYss/s1600-h/untitled.bmp
Can se see the lake from upstairs?
John,
Your black box is running on one hell of an assumption.
She, not se, yeesh
John,
GM Bankruptcy is just a boomdoogle for lawyers, it is a very bad and stupid choice.
How do they get from under the weight of their pension and labor agreement obligations? BK the only way.
US automakers can not continue as they are currently structured.
So, the Dow is up 190. Does the market take a cue from Bush and crash when O speaks or does it kick into overdrive?
“US automakers can not continue as they are currently structured.”
Nor can government workers.
I believe that GM employees about 20 million people when you also add in the secondary jobs that exist solely in support of GM.
Cant find the link right now….
grim Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
I propose a new stimulus package based on the movie Brewster’s Millions.
Everyone is given a million dollars to spend, but with the caveat that they can’t have anything to show for it after everything is gone. It can’t be horded, can’t be given away, and can’t be destroyed. It must be spent in such a way that every penny is consumed. Americans are experts in this. Why haven’t Dodd and Frank proposed this yet?
I just realized that this was the American economic model of the past 10 years. God help us.
Ecept for some reason I did not get 1million – why did they miss me??? – ok not me but my wife – she was in graduate school not making ANY Money and now there is not a job for her (well the one which would cover childcare and commuting expences) – her jobs are being shipped to China and India!!
To these three great lies:
This won’t hurt a bit
Sure, I will respect you in the morning.
I am from the government, I am here to help
Should we now add, The government can best determine asset values and keep markets from going down?
“her jobs are being shipped to China and India!!”
It is good to know we export something other than aircraft and debt.
Didn’t Bush speak already today? Thought he said something about being more confident due to on the significant improvement in lending that has taken place over the last few days.
GM is in the cr@pper, Ford is in need of life support, Chrysler is done, their CEO’s are begging at the public trough and the markets are up. Money moron over here but that suggests to me that no one cares because they aren’t as important to the economy as some seem to think. Or is it that a bailout is a sure thing? Yuck.
“Didn’t Bush speak already today? “
“Didn’t Bush speak already today? “
stu,
Nor can government workers.
Completely agree. When some of these states and cities get pushed toward bankruptcy, there will be a serious restructuring in the govt offices. They can only tax the electorate so much.
“Didn’t Bush speak already today? ”
Who knows. Other than if he says, “we have launched an attack on…” the nation has moved on.
It is good to know we export something other than aircraft and debt.
How could you forget about America’s biggest export?, freshly minted dollars in shipping containers.
Shore Guy Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
To these three great lies:
This won’t hurt a bit
Sure, I will respect you in the morning.
I am from the government, I am here to help
Should we now add, The government can best determine asset values and keep markets from going down?
Better ones to add:
House prices alwasy go up!
It is for your own good!
There will be no ressession!
Housing is perfectly set-up for a solf landing and stable prices!
You can always refinance 3 years later!
And finally my favorite:
Historical trends do not applly today, it is a new paradigm.
Grim,
Removing or reducing pension agreements will have a significant negative effect on the workers who count on them…..
damned if you do damned if you dont……
Money moron over here but that suggests to me that no one cares because they aren’t as important to the economy as some seem to think.
I thought the US transition from a manufacturing economy to a service economy was the goal here? We were all too smart and savvy to do menial things like put together cars. Isn’t that what China is for?
Why fight to keep manufacturing now?
Or are we saying that this whole “new economy” based on services wasn’t all it was cracked up to be?
re 262 – america is also biggest exporter in the world of recycling materials – plastic, electronics, old tires/cars and such!!!
We also make a lot of CO2 – this is great product for cold climates it makes you warmer winter time!!!
“We also make a lot of CO2”
Global warming is good for global farming is what my brother always says.
stu,
until you look at precipitation pattern shifts
My comrades in Siberia will welcome warmer winters!!! They might even get to grow some peach-trees in their lifetime!!!
http://tinyurl.com/6evjwt
We’re Orwellian now.
Since when is this the definition of “repay”?
If you borrow $19.2 billion from a credit line to pay down $9.1 on another credit line, both from the same lender, you didn’t repay anything, YOU BORROWED MORE.
AIG repays more of $85 billion Fed loan
American International Group Inc. reduced the amount it owes the U.S. government by another $2.3 billion as the insurer continues to use the Federal Reserve’s new commercial-paper-funding program.
…
As of Wednesday, AIG’s borrowings under the $85 billion credit facility totaled $61 billion, down from about $65.5 billion a week ago. The total paydown in the past two weeks totals $9.1 billion.
In addition, AIG has drawn $19.9 billion under the $37.8 billion lending agreement, he said. That amount is up $2.2 billion from a week ago.
Major hiccup in the midwest:
AT&T today started to “reorganized” in Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and Indiana. Friend’s boss was just laid off – hours ago – and about 2000 people have no clue if they are being “reorganized” or “fired.”
The boss was that was just fired had no advance notice. came from left field.
Actually, they borrowed $19.2 billion using unsecured paper to pay down $9.1 billion of secured paper.
In addition to walking way from the table with an additional $10 billion dollars, they eliminated $9.1 of total collateral at the Treasury/Fed that was acting as security for the taxpayer.
They didn’t repay anyone, they screwed them.
#265 – Or are we saying that this whole “new economy” based on services wasn’t all it was cracked up to be?
I believe we are. Well I am, at the least.
Odd, wasn’t this a recurrent talking point in the mid to late 90s? We got to ignore it for a few years due to .com/y2k/omg911!/housingbubble, but here it is back again.
Can’t all have cushy office jobs can we?
In the normal course of business that is how it works. What they need is quick action. Today. Heck cut off every bond interest and pref payment for two years starting today, GM has 25 billion in bonds at something like an average 6% coupon. That is 1.5 million there. Then how about direct car loans from the US Govt at zero percent interest. How about suspending their payroll tax obligations, something, anything at this point. This is the equivalent of when your biggest client asks you for a loan to stay in business. You have a gun to your head and either way you are dead.
Hard Place Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
John,
GM Bankruptcy is just a boomdoogle for lawyers, it is a very bad and stupid choice.
How do they get from under the weight of their pension and labor agreement obligations? BK the only way.
US automakers can not continue as they are currently structured.
re# 276 GM – you guys are all thinking like capitalists. What would the commies do?
GM opens first Russian factory
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081107/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_russia_general_motors_3
We’re getting near.
http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/mld/for/909518972.html
Think he’d toss in the wastebasket with the empty camel box for the ten bucks?
I want that absolutely exquisite sign.
In the normal course of business that is how it works.
If massive government subsidies and bailouts are “the normal course of business”, we’re f-cked John. The automakers can be made viable, but not without massive job cuts and downsizing. There is simply too much capacity in the industry, which is exactly the reason that subsidies are required to operate.
Want to fix the overcapacity issue without layoffs? Protectionism is the only way, block out foreign auto manufacturers entirely, or impose massive tariffs. You’ll eliminate the overcapacity, by destroying foreign/offshore capacity.
its a party!!!!
Ford Posts $3 Billion Operating Loss, Burns $7.7 Billion Cash
Ford Motor Co., with U.S. sales shredded by the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, posted a third-quarter operating loss of $2.98 billion. The company said it used up $7.7 billion in cash and would cut more salaried jobs. The per-share operating loss of $1.31 was wider than the 93-cent average of 10 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Those figures exclude a gain for shedding future retiree medical bills under a new union contract that enabled Ford to post a net loss of $129 million, or 6 cents.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=home&sid=aysNwuvCVmpw
———————————-
Chrysler cash drains away as crisis deepens
Chrysler LLC is rapidly burning through cash and being driven to prepare for a possible break-up if it can’t clinch a merger with General Motors Corp or get government funding needed to ride out the economic crisis, people with knowledge of the situation said.
Without new funding or a wrenching restructuring, executives have raised concern about the automaker’s ability to finance its operations from existing cash beyond the first half of 2009, said the sources, who were not authorized to discuss Chrysler’s performance. Chrysler has had to pay out over $100 million a month to support strained suppliers on top of a total $200 million support to sales through dealers in August and September as it suspended vehicle lease financing, the sources said.
The $11.7 billion the struggling automaker said it had as of end-June has seen a substantial decline because of the company’s deteriorating performance marked by a 35 percent slide in October sales and increasing cash incentives, they said. Cerberus and GM had agreed last month on the broad terms of a merger of Chrysler’s loss-making auto operations and those of its crosstown rival but the deal foundered when the Bush administration rebuffed a request for some $10 billion to support it, sources have said. That setback has put the focus on winning support for a broader federal rescue package for GM, Chrysler, Ford Motor Co and their suppliers that the industry argues would save jobs and protect benefits for retirees.
#211 One strategy, which the Fed is pursuing in an effort to generate nominal spending and inflation, is negative real interest rates. By keeping the Federal funds rate at historical lows, it has destroyed thrift and savings. Additionally, by keeping the real rate of return on savings negative, it has encouraged spending and speculation to the detriment of savings. In the six months ending this past June, consumer prices have risen at an annual rate of 4.9%. (This rate is actually understated due to hedonic adjustments.) With the Federal funds rate at 1.25% and inflation running at 5%, we are a long way from reaching a neutral federal funds rate. A neutral rate is now closer to 6% than it is 4%. However, rates this high are irrelevant because the Fed will never get that aggressive. A 6% federal funds rate would collapse the $37 trillion debt pyramid in the U
I want that absolutely exquisite sign.
Screw the sign, Tony Randall is absolutely divine! I’d buy anything from Tony Randall.
When General Motors reveals its own third q later Friday, it’s expected to match Ford’s losses dollar-for-dollar with its own $3 billion sinkhole. And Chrysler may have to sell off its Jeep brand – about the lone attractive pony in the auto maker’s stable – if it can’t orchestrate a merger with GM or get bailed out by the government. The prospect of just that kind of a government hand-out has become of ever-increasing importance to the auto industry. And probably seemed a little more likely, now that the election has concluded. The Bush Administration backed away from financing an auto-maker bailout late last month because it didn’t want to be seen financing a Chrysler-for-GM merger that was guaranteed to result in another 40,000 of job losses, something that appeared politically unpalatable ahead of the presidential election.
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2008/11/07/ford-reveals-depths-of-cash-burn-eyes-europes-capital/
The French still believe “dilution is the solution to pollution” and they dump the nuke waste in the ocean. If the EU forces them to treat their waste appropriately it’ll be a big problem for them.
If we do nationalize the automakers, can we make the employees sing the national anthem in the morning and perform mass calisthenics?
as I understand it, issues surrounding big 3 auto failure extend beyond auto industry itself. maybe someone who knows more about this can elaborate, but GM in particular would cause huge ripples in credit markets. if one has to go, maybe it should be chrysler since it is privately held. although the new dodge challenger is pretty sweet…
There is definitelly something I do not understand – US biggest companies are on the verge or BK, financial companies are still in trouble, pharma laying off people as well and the stock market is up?????
W.T.F.???
although the new dodge challenger is pretty sweet…
Pretty sad that the most exciting vehicle from Dodge in 40 years is.. well.. something dug up from 40 years ago.
#285 – More importantly can we force GM to import the VX220 and not screw up a Lotus design by adding in 800 pounds?
re: #286 skep-tic it is not the layoffs and plant closing and pension & medical Obligations that will get GM a bailout.
It is the credit default swaps, which are Weapons of Cash distruction.
This bailout will happen, but don’t count on the jobs staying here in the USA.
#288 – Nail. Head. Hit /golf clap
grim Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
If we do nationalize the automakers, can we make the employees sing the national anthem in the morning and perform mass calisthenics?
I suggest besides singing national anthem in teh morning also mandatory enrolling them into a new “Govermental Party” and having a 2 hours long “Govermental Party”Meeting every weeK, where everybody would have to report what did they spend their salaries on and the ones who saved anything will be publically wipped for not supposting 80% service economy!!!!!!
John,
Heck cut off every bond interest and pref payment for two years starting today, GM has 25 billion in bonds at something like an average 6% coupon. That is 1.5 million there.
Sure, yes financing is an issue. Bigger issue is what they are financing. Underemployed workers in a industry with overcapacity with products in a shrinking market. The world is awash in SUV’s and luxury vehicles, GM missed that the future buyers are from the emerging world. They need smaller more efficient cars. Maybe eventually they will need bigger ones, but not right now.
Not to mention the fact that the last Challengers were scrapped due to the fuel crisis in the 70s.
So what does Dodge do?
Reintroduces a 13mpg version of the same car in the midst of a fuel crisis.
And we wonder why these firms are begging at the goverment trough?
Reintroduces a 13mpg version of the same car in the midst of a fuel crisis.
And we wonder why these firms are begging at the goverment trough?
Bingo. These guys are making decisions in a vacuum. They have big red/white/blue blinders on.
grim Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Not to mention the fact that the last Challengers were scrapped due to the fuel crisis in the 70s.
So what does Dodge do?
Reintroduces a 13mpg version of the same car in the midst of a fuel crisis.
And we wonder why these firms are begging at the goverment trough?
But you have to admit – the car looks cool – it’s got a lot of character!!! and it cost may be 2000$ more than Camry!!!
But you have to admit – the car looks cool – it’s got a lot of character!!! and it cost may be 2000$ more than Camry!!!
SRT8 is 40 large my friend.
The rpoblem with chrysler – is in their product portfolio. All they ahve is bigger chassi’s cars – and to switch to a smaller chassi requires full retooling of a factory (cheaper to build a new one) and building a new supply chain – close to impossible in current economical enviroment, and no money left.
Al 287 There is definitelly something I do not understand – US biggest companies are on the verge or BK, financial companies are still in trouble, pharma laying off people as well and the stock market is up?????
W.T.F.???
Welcome to 1984. how do you like Oceania so far?
Wall Street analysts and government economists quickly dismiss the thought that consumers and businesses are over-leveraged. They immediately refer to rising home and equity prices. The amount of debt is marginalized by constantly inflating asset prices. 21st century memories tend to be short. Many have forgotten what can happen to the equity markets when the Fed embarks on a rate raising cycle. The last time this happened in June of 1999, it took only a 1.75 percentage point increase in the Fed funds rate to bring about a stock market collapse and a recession. Yet, Wall Street repeats the mantra that as long as the Fed rate hikes are gradual, the party will continue. Nothing could be further from the truth. Nearly all rate raising cycles end in financial and economic mishaps. When the Fed begins raising rates, bad things happen to the financial markets and the economy. It won’t be any different this time. The only difference will be that it will take fewer rate hikes to send the markets and the economy into a downward spiral.
To put some international perspective on RE,
Housing bubble in China and India
Both China and India are watching real estate prices soar, leading many to question how long the market will last.
China for example, is boasting prices that would be considered absurd in the U.S. Three-bedroom apartments in cities such as Guangzhou or Shanghai are running for upwards of $300,000. These prices are especially high considering that the average salary in China is $160 per month, according to BusinessWeek.
Much like China, India’s housing prices have soared, rising 16 percent a year for the last four years. In Bangalore and Mumbai, prices doubled in both 2005 and 2006, according to the Economist. Apartments in Mumbai now cost an average of three times more than in Shanghai, even with incomes in India much lower than those in China. According to the Economist, the question is not whether the prices will fall–but by how much.
#297 – That $40k was MSRP. Supposedly they were selling for well over. I don’t know if this is still true.
#296 – Al – If you really like them, just wait a little. I get the feeling that used ones will be very affordable in near future.
S&P Cuts Ratings on $34.1 Billion in Alt-A RMBS
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said late Wednesday that it had cut its ratings on 1,078 classes from 86 U.S. RMBS Alt-A deals issued in 2006 and 2007 — the latest blow to investors in an already battered mortgage market, and evidence that the nation’s mortgage crisis is moving up the proverbial value chain. In aggregate, the classes with lowered ratings had an original par amount of approximately $34.1 billion, which has been paid down to approximately $28 billion, S&P said.
http://www.housingwire.com/2008/11/06/sp-cuts-ratings-on-341-billion-in-alt-a-rmbs/
Another food crisis year looms, says FAO
The world might face a repeat of this year’s food crisis as the credit crunch encroaches on the agricultural market, leading farmers to cut their planting because of falling prices and lack of finance to buy fertilisers, the United Nations warned on Thursday.
“Riots and instability could again capture the headlines,” the Food and Agriculture Organisation said.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d125dbf2-ac2c-11dd-aa46-000077b07658.html
All these anti-GM comments. Why do you guys hate America so much?
/snark
the only american cars that sell are trucks and muscle cars. we should relax fuel economy standards so that these companies can just make a smaller number of trucks without making crap tiny cars that go straight to rental fleets. they are never going to beat honda/toyota at the small car game
Challenger seems like the ultimate HELOC-mobile for its intended target market. 7 middle aged balding white guys in the midwest whose biggest regret was not being the HS jock.
grim Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
But you have to admit – the car looks cool – it’s got a lot of character!!! and it cost may be 2000$ more than Camry!!!
SRT8 is 40 large my friend.
You don’t have to buy SRT8
2009 Dodge Challenger SE ~22K
Standard Engine3.5L V6Standard Transmission4 Speed AutomaticCylinders6Horsepower @ RPM250@6400Torque @ RPM250@3800 (foot-lbs)
Or 2009 Dodge Challenger R/T ~27K (I bet right now you can get it even cheaper!)
Standard Engine:5.7L V8, 16 valve, 370 hp @ 5800 rpm
5 speed automatic transmission
16 mpg city / 23 mpg hwy
Green Rating: Unavailable
Learn about the Green Rating
NOt nearly as cool as SRT8 but it is a lot cheaper!!!
My Source:
http://autos.yahoo.com/dodge_challenger/
SG,
China for example, is boasting prices that would be considered absurd in the U.S. Three-bedroom apartments in cities such as Guangzhou or Shanghai are running for upwards of $300,000. These prices are especially high considering that the average salary in China is $160 per month, according to BusinessWeek.
That’s shoddy reporting. How can you compare a $300k apt in a major city to avg salary in all of China? I don’t bet the metrics are overvalued, but that is grossly distorting the facts for the uninitiated.
First,
The president should be required to speak outside of market hours.
Second,
“#296 – Al – If you really like them, just wait a little. I get the feeling that used ones will be very affordable in near future.”
Not necessarily so. They may become collectors items.
Third (Yome):
Do you all remember the debate when the savings rate was declining rapidly a few years back and the analysts all said that we shouldn’t worry because those savings numbers did not include home equity? Where are these fools today?
#296 – Al – If you really like them, just wait a little. I get the feeling that used ones will be very affordable in near future.
I really like the body, but I will never buy one – it is not the right car for married person with a little baby. Plus our family SUV gets significantly better mileage and there is no way I am selling it – not with 2$ gasoline!!!
THE STRANGE CASE OF FALLING
INTERNATIONAL RESERVES
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/salinasprice/2008/1106.html
look at that chart… What happened to reserve growth. Buckle your seatbelt.
Where are these fools today?
On their yachts in the Caribbean.
When will the mass media begin to question the efficacy of these “stimulus packages”.
We on bailout number 7 at this point with almost nothing to show for it.
Oh wait, I’ve got the solution, another stimulus package!
Did I just notice the markets drop as O spoke?
Grim,
I see you are getting the message.
stu
see my link posted at 271
———————————
regarding the chart i linked at 312
There was a small drop in the reserve growth in 1999. i wonder how that is tied in with the dot com bust.
if we are talking orders of magnitude, then what does that suggest about our current situation…..
Welcome to New Jersey…
Early payment on state debt could stall
Gov. Jon Corzine’s plan to use $650 million in surplus state funds to pay down outstanding state debt can be added to the mounting list of casualties from the ongoing economic collapse, state Treasurer David Rousseau told officials this morning.
“I can guarantee you as we sit here now the entire $650 million will not be used for debt reduction,” Rousseau told members of the state Commission on Capital Budgeting and Planning during a meeting in Trenton today.
“All these anti-GM comments. Why do you guys hate America so much?
/snark”
I think GM is the one that hates America.
against the grain:
I agree, we should nuke them from orbit, its the only way to be sure….
http://meyerweb.com/eric/tools/gmap/hydesim.html?ll=-83.0527,42.3399&yd=5000&z=8
Any biologists here? What happens to a microbial population that exhibits the growth pattern seem at the link in 312…
Heck make imported cars illegal in the United States for one year and while we are at it make every US Bond owned by China worthless. Actually sounds like a lot of work, lets just bomb them.
I liked our new presidents speech. He was too funny when he compared himself to brown and serve susages.
Against The Grain Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
“All these anti-GM comments. Why do you guys hate America so much?
/snark”
I think GM is the one that hates America.
If GM loved america, GM would not close the GM plant in Linden, NJ and open a new one In Mexico!!!
This is in our state. This did affect salaries and lives of thousands of people in this state.
“I agree, we should nuke them from orbit.”
Actually, you could make a pretty good argument that GM hates America. For one thing, it purchased trolley lines in many cities and put them out of business so it could force people to buy cars to get to work. This stuff is only the tip of the iceberg of what its done to America.
Disclosure: I have owned GM pick up trucks for the past 20 years.
Shore – re East View Park view – Yes :)
#319 – I think GM is the one that hates America.
Agreed. We need no more evidence than the Aztec.
“Agreed. We need no more evidence than the Aztec.”
Thanks for the best laugh I’ve had all day!
Even that band from the 1970s Aztec Two Step was bad.
american cars that have a future:
ford trucks
chrysler minivans
jeep
cadillac
chevy (probably the U.S. brand with most potential, top to bottom)
everything else seems to me pretty expendable.
I was hoping to pick up a new 2010 Saab 9-5 Aero but word is they’ve shelved a good chunk of R&D. Saab’s not being a voume vehicle will surely suffer as a result of this.
Bummer.
Grain,
actually it was team work between standard oil and GM.
Exxon is the primary descendant of Standard oil. SO we Nuke GM and Exxon?
exxon
http://meyerweb.com/eric/tools/gmap/hydesim.html?ll=-96.94832,32.89063&yd=100
err… by new I meant a clean 2 year old vehicle of that model.
I don’t do new cars.
Shore Guy Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
For anyone who is interested, B.O.’s digs:
Shore: I lived at 5020 S. Lake Shore Drive….on that mapping program, it places that address in the middle of a road. It is actually the more north of the two high rises that are north of E 51st and between S East End and S Chicago Beach. From B.O. in that program, go to the right and then you cross over railroad tracks and it is right at the lake. Yes, you saw the lake from my apartment.
You have to appreciate that Hyde Park/Kenwood is where affluent African Americans live in Chicago. Think of Hyde Park/Kenwood as similar to Columbia University, Morningside Heights and West Harlem, except that the areas around Hyde Park/Kenwood (including Michelle O.’s neighborhood) are REALLY bad. East New York/Camden kind of bad.
Chicago is an extremely segregated city, so if you are affluent and black, your only choice is Hyde Park/Kenwood, and select few other places when properly vetted.
kettle1 Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
against the grain:
I agree, we should nuke them from orbit, its the only way to be sure….
AY-firmative Newt……
It took them to 4pm today to figure this out.
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Standard & Poor’s on Friday cut the corporate credit rating of General Motors Corp. (GM:General Motors CorporationGM 4.32, -0.48, -10.0%) to CCC+ from B- on expanding cash losses. The outlook is negative. “We now believe GM will use much more cash this year than our previous estimate of as much as $16 billion in its global automotive operations,” said Robert Schulz, an S&P credit analyst, in a statement.
Contact inhibition and a large die off. Unless it is a sigmoid curve and the LD ratio stays at a rate constant. Of course this would require influx of resources at a steady state to maintain the ratio. As with all systems though this to can and more often will crash. been a while since I had to do plate counts in micro ket
I heard he is adopting a half black and half white dog.
Memo to our NSA Overlords:
Please be advised that I in no way condone nuking anything in America or that which is owned by any company traded on an American stock exchange.
Going to name it Maverick.
Look at the DOW today. All the bad news and the market it up 2.85%. The bottom must be in!
Buy! Buy! Buy!
Talk about gambling.,,,Geeze
Look – a town in NJ that might actually lay people off:
http://app.com/article/20081107/NEWS/81107051/0/NEWS0301
343
Hey, that’s my town.
Read the fine print: “All the positions affected by the proposed layoffs are represented by Transport Workers Union Local 225 Branch 4. The township and the union’s talks for a contract are stalled. The labor agreement for 225 township employees expired Dec. 31, 2007.”
I have my doubts.
They should lay off some cops, it is the thrid safest town in the country or some crap. Where is the excitement in that?
Too many retirement villages in that town to have any crime.
hughesrep,
definitely have to read between the lines there. no labor agreement, no protection. chop chop. let’s see them make a politically dangerous move.
Just went by a HUGE Chevy dealership. The electonic sign out front said, Z06! Originally $77,790. Now $69,900. What? Are they NUTS?? Also, huge Bill Heard Chevy dealership near here collapsed about a month ago along with the rest of them across the country. All of the inventory is still sitting outside on the lot, collecting dust and bird droppings. It’s creepy, really creepy.
Via CalculatedRisk:
Bloomberg sues Fed to force the disclosure of the collateral its accepted.
This could get interesting.
tosh [346],
Collateral?
http://dvice.com/pics/garbage.jpg
re#346 Queue the shredders?
Unisys (UIS) No news but falls over 30% to $.79 from 52-week high of $7.90.
Another 100 year old company near death.
A condensed version of I.O.U.S.A.. From Patrick;
http://blip.tv/file/1417453?ref=patrick.net
349….John…..Unisys has been an abject failure….even during the tech boom. Try again.
331-
I think some kind of combined Dodge Viper/Ford GT/Mustang/Corvette group could be pretty neat.
Gotten to ride in some of these before and they’re a lot of fun. I’ve contemplated taking my down payment and picking up the Ford GT. Just not sure how my wife would take that.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fd782ada-a451-11dd-8104-000077b07658.html
“Austria now is the third European country to have cancelled a bond offering in the last few weeks – in the Autrian case the markets are getting more and more nervous over the exposure of some of its key banks (Erste, Raffeison) to the mounting disaster over in Eastern Europe – both Hungary and Ukraine received IMF loans this week (see below) and they certainly won’t be the last.
Austria seems to have dropped its plans for a bond launch next week due to the size of the premiums (spreads) investors seemed likely to demand, although the Austrian Federal Financing Agency did not give any explanation for the decision.
Spain, which also currently has a triple A rating, and Belgium have both cancelled bond offerings in the past month because of the market turbulence, with investors again demanding much higher interest rates than debt managers had bargained for.”
it’s got a lot of character!!! and it cost may be 2000$ more than Camry!!!
SRT8 is 40 large my friend.
Grim,
You outta’ see Al’s Camry…it’s pimped, yo.
re: #352 bklynhawk I rented a Viper in Vegas a few years ago after hitting big at the tables, took the car out on Rt. 15 and took it up Glendale redline all the way, the damm car vibrated worse than a bed in a cheap motel on Rt. 46.
If anything is worth saving it is the Vette, and the 2010 Camaro.
going up to Canada next week, to talk to an ol friend “splitting the sky”
SAS
“End the Fed”
http://endthefed.us/index.php
# spam spam bacon spam Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
it’s got a lot of character!!! and it cost may be 2000$ more than Camry!!!
SRT8 is 40 large my friend.
Grim,
You outta’ see Al’s Camry…it’s pimped, yo.
Now you talking!!!
I will be out at the End the Fed protest on the 22nd, if anyone wants to joins me.
SAS
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSN0757391420081107
“US CREDIT – Ambac downgrade threatens solvency, CDS market”
Reuters
CDO unwinds
Commutations
“The downgrade of Ambac Financial Group’s insurance arm by Moody’s Investment Services significantly increases the risk of the bond insurer failing, and also threatens large losses in the credit derivatives market.”
“One potentially bright point for Ambac’s liquidity would be if it makes agreements with counterparties to tear up contracts on risky residential mortgages.”
Or…bailout city…
350…..thanks for posting that BC…..
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Realtors-lobby-housing-stimulus-claim/story.aspx?guid={D5B2A20E-80CD-4E27-8F94-3D41083429F7}&dist=hplatest
“Home prices down 9.3% in 2008: NAR Realtors lobby for housing stimulus, claims there’s no time to waste” MarketWatch
“”The projected 9.3% national decline in home prices this year would be the sharpest drop since the National Association of Realtors started keeping records in 1968, the group’s chief executive said Friday.”
More from Lawrence Yun…
(362) Sorry that link didn’t work..
Go to MarketWatch – Home prices down 9.3% in 2008 – It was under the real estate tab…
http://www.recordernewspapers.com/articles/2008/11/07/observer-tribune/news/doc4912128e7ff42598177914.txt
“…unless the Sylvesters get some last-minute help, they will find themselves homeless when their $1.2 million Birch Street home goes up for sheriff’s sale…”
http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JK08Dj02.html
BOOK REVIEW
Subprime – an (im)morality tale
Confessions of a Subprime Lender by Richard Bitner
359, sas
sorry, going to a bakesale/clothing swap
then a goodbye party. locally owned (and beloved) coffeeshop was on a month to month lease. landlord got involved in something (rumor was bad real estate decision in manhattan), needed cash, is selling building to a bank. the bulldozers come dec 1st. merry christmas.
sas Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 7:16 pm
going up to Canada next week, to talk to an ol friend “splitting the sky” SAS
RIP…..have a safe trip…
What not to do….
I talk to students every year applying to Cornell so that they can have a more personalized experience. Anyway, while my input has minimal impact on the eventual decision, the admissions committee WILL see my comments. For the most part, the applicants have been enjoyable to meet. However, several each year seem to show a lack of maturity and/or manners.
Here would be an example of someone responding to my request for an interview.
NOTE: this one is applying early!! ??????
“Hi, Sorry it took me so long to reply to this email, my school’s fall play is next weekend and it’s been a bit busy for me. I would love to meet with you, but the next two weeks aren’t really good for me. Beyond that, I’m not sure what my schedule holds, but I will let you know sometime soon. Thank you for contacting me
On Fri, Nov 7, 2008 at 11:13 AM,
wrote: Trying again………….
fROM ABOVE:
http://www.recordernewspapers.com/articles/2008/11/07/observer-tribune/news/doc4912128e7ff42598177914.txt
And how is this anyone’s fault but the Sylvesters?
“The Sylvesters’ story is all too familiar: They bought their 1,800 square foot split level in Mendham in 1989 for $197,000… Two years ago, they went the route of many people when they applied for a refinancing of their home mortgage, hoping for a lower interest rate and to gain some cash to pay off business bills. The refinancing was approved and a monthly mortgage payment was set at $5,100… boosted the monthly payments to $7,100.”
Humm, they buy a home in 1989 for $197 and, now, the secons mortgage alone is $850,000.
“Sylvester, who is a contractor, expanded and improved the home.”
Ok, so some of the increase came from additions and renovations. HELLO? The man is a contractor. It is not like he has to pay someone else to do the work. Even if he did, so save for a few years, and pay as you go. Ok, even if they added on 3,000 square feet, to come in at just about 5,000 sq. feet, and paid $200 a square foot for the work years ago, that is all of $600,000, not even 2/3 the amount of the second mortgage.
“second mortgage, totaling $850,000.”
“They have pleaded to no avail for help from everyone from Gov. Jon Corzine and Sen. Frank Lautenberg, D-N.J. to Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen… “‘I have five children,’ Mrs. Sylvester said on Friday. ‘I can’t be put out on the street. Someone has to step up to the plate.’”
“The Sylvesters could afford the $1,400 monthly payment along with the original $5,100 mortgage bill”
Oh, so now their poor decision making becomes our problem? If they are able to make $6,500 a month in payments on the house, certainly they can find a rental home for that amount or less. How is there any obligation for someone else “to step up to the plate” and save them from themselves?
“”If they are able to make
Someone asked about this bank not long ago.
From bankdeals.blogspot.com
4.50% 5-Month CD and $150 Checking Bonus at Oritani Bank in New Jersey
Oritani Bank is offering some attractive Grand Opening specials at two of its New Jersey branches. The promotiosn include a 4.50% APY 5-Month CD. This requires a new checking account. Without the checking, the yield is 4.25% APY. The minimum deposit is $1,000, and the maximum is $50,000 per individual.
There’s also a checking account bonus of up to $150. Direct deposit is required. $75 is awarded for a combined balance of over $25K (CDs included), $50 for making 3 automatic bill payments, and $25 for 10 signature debit card purchases. All have to be completed within 60 days of account opening.
The front page banner for this promotion links to a PDF page with all of the details. These are only offered at the bank’s Emerson and Jersey City offices.
Other competitive CD specials are available at the bank’s other branches. These include a 4.05% APY 5-month CD and a 4.15% APY 15-month CD. The minimum deposit is $1,000. These are listed in the bank’s rate table.
Branches are located in the New Jersey counties of Passaic, Bergen and Hudson.
The bank has some solid financial ratings for soundness: 5 stars (excellent) at BauerFinancial and 4 stars (sound) at Bankrate.com. Both are based on 6/30/08 data. Oritani Bank has been FDIC insured since 1939 (FDIC Certificate # 28866).
Thanks to the reader who mentioned these specials in the Finding the Best Deals post.
Labels: banks, bonuses, certificates of deposit, New Jersey, Oritani Bank
ax dollars at work. Half-million dollars worth of repairs on a NEW bridge.
http://www.app.com/article/20081107/NEWS/81107066&referrer=FRONTPAGECAROUSEL
Tax, even.
“Valerie and Gary Sylvester and their five children don’t want to become another casualty in the subprime mortgage scandal”
Someone who can afford to pay $6500 a month for housing and finds themselves in foreclosure is not a casualty of anything except for their own stupidity.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ai7PX36RigYI&refer=home
“Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Fell 4.6%” Bloomberg
“Fewer Americans signed contracts to buy previously owned homes in September, indicating the credit crisis will inflict more damage on the housing market.”
The index of signed purchase agreements, or pending home resales, fell 4.6%, more than forecast, to 89.2, the NAR said today in Washington.”
“The housing slump may extend well into the fourth year as banks turn away homeowners, foreclosures worsen the glut of unsold homes and the job losses climb. Lower property values will keep eroding home-equity, causing consumers to retrench further and reinforcing the risk of a deeper recession.”
Foreclosures sell here but aside from that, few are moving.
“Retrenching” is probably an apt term. Whereever you are – well, that’s all of a sudden your new “dream home.” Maybe you once thought you would “move up” to a different home but most (I mean the folks who own their places or can actually pay for a home) have abandoned that idea and decided to stay put.
The bailout scared the bajesus out of folks with money around here. Now they don’t want to spend a penny on anything. And they certainly don’t want to move in these uncertain times.I just don’t see how that’s going to change anytime soon.
Sure, some houses will come on the market due to job loss, foreclosure etc. but if you do not need to move..well those folks aren’t moving. All of a sudden, what they have looks great to them.
Well moving is expensive….time…money…etc. I am happy with my home…do not care for the schools…so in fact will be shelling out about $150k over the next twelve years to educate my kid…still MUCH less than moving…..BTW
Does anyone know if you can get a tax break if you don’t use the local schools?
Reading the article about the Sylvester’s just makes by blood boil. Poor us…we’re the victims. Like having a normal size split level in Mendham isn’t good enough for them. I have a brilliant idea…how about people actual know what they can really afford & not what someone else tells them they can afford. Don’t we all know bigger house = bigger taxes????? People have spent the last 5 years taking HUGE GAMBLES…some you win, some you lose. Too bad these people were too stupid to realize that it was a losing situation the minute they sign the papers. Idiots
So Paulson is leaving..Is this also a chance to get rid of Cox at the SEC? Does Bernanke have a certain “term?” How many of these folks can be “replaced?”
I wonder if there is any sort of info related to who was reelected in Congress related to how they voted regarding the bailout?
http://m.app.com/news.jsp?key=78255
Looks like it is a state’s issue.
Ooops Essex – #379 for you…
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/07/AR2008110701653.html
modifications/update
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aX4BbAxqP7gc
Ranieri Becomes Victim
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/1310ap_meltdown_child_care.html
When not having child care isn’t an option, some fear financially strapped parents will put their kids in facilities or homes that are little more than waiting rooms.
“We are driving people into an unregulated system,” said Peggy Liuzzi, executive director of Child Care Solutions, a resource and referral agency in Syracuse, N.Y.
(381) Pat – Interesting. The reading I did earlier in the week on IndyMac basically said that many didn’t want the modifications.(They did mailing to try to get folks to restructure their loans.) They also pointed out that 50% or so of the modified loans would probably default in a few years anyway. Sort of – once a flake/ always a flake.
Pat (383) My sister had this idea that with all of the retirees coming on board, a system should be devised that made retirement communities into day care centers. Wonderful for the children and a positive day’s events for the retirees….obviously – with minimum costs to the working parents.
#369 Shore Guy
That’s what I was thinking too. You can find a pretty nice rental for 3,200 in Mendham.
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?loc=mendham+%2cNJ&bor=2&sid=c6d8d9c75fcc4c00859f6dcd0a5f8f79&lid=1104388890&lsn=5&srcnt=13
It’s “only” 4 bedrooms, so a few of the kiddies will have to double up.
RE: SYLVESTERS
I discovered our boy Sylvester was arrested on April 28th of this year for unpaid traffic fines during a traffic stop. He posted $108 bail.
Stories like this really upset me. I hope that guy gets booted out with nothing but a five dollar bill and box of raggedy clothjes. No pity for folks like this at all. Unfortunately, it is imperative that the kids suffer as well in order to learn, else they’ll grow stupid just like their parents.
Hey Cindy…not really our situation….and the voucher thing will be fought tooth and nail by “you know who”.
Fun fact…53% of NEA members send their own kids to private schools….
Cindy
some one please corrcet me if am wrong, but the president has no real say in who the FED chairman is. the FED is not a government organization. it is a privately held banking cartel.
# Essex Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 7:15 am
Does anyone know if you can get a tax break if you don’t use the local schools?
I don’t know….can I get a tax break for not having any kids? Somehow I doubt it.
RE,
When I heard B.O. takee his petty swipe at Nancy yesterday the thrst thing I thought was Stupid, stupid, stupid. There was nothing to be gained by it as, like her or not, she is not “out there” as a political force and after the way she dealt with Ron’s illness even detractors felt for her.
I think that incident may have been B.O.’s “Oh, things really are different now moment” where he came to realize that things that were acceptable for a candidate to say are out of bounds for a president.
The presidency is one of those be careful what you wish for jobs. By age 55, at the latest, his working life will be over. Already his ability to drive around, walk around, take the kids to the park, etc., has been altered forever.
Until he hands over the card authenticating him to the military for authorizing the use of special (aka, nuclear) weapons, every statement he makes must be considered, calibrated, and reconsidered. Offhand remarks can come back to bite a president and harm his effectiveness — “I have just signed legislation outlawing the Soviet Union. We start bombing in ten minutes.” Remember THAT one?
sx (376)-
Surely, you jest.
You can sometimes get a transportation credit if you send your kid to a church-affiliated school. That’s about it.
Grim,
This week’s report from the Hinterlands…
GSMLS recorded only 8 sales and 42 new listings in Hunterdon County this week. For the second straight week, none of the completed sales were comp killers. There were 6 future comp killers among the new listings…
Hunterdon County FUTURE Comp Killers:
MLS#: 2599811
475 SWEET HOLLOW RD
Alexandria Twp
SLD: 10/20/06 $710,000
OLP: 11/06/08 $649,000
DOM: 2
MLS#: 2598899
1314 SPRUCE HILLS DR
Glen Gardner Boro
SLD: 09/16/05 $195,000
OLP: 11/05/08 $189,000
DOM: 3
MLS#: 2598642
88 CHARLESTOWN RD
Hampton Boro
SLD: 11/04/05 $375,000
OLP: 11/04/08 $355,000
DOM: 4
MLS#: 2599285
225 HOLCOMBE WAY
Lambertville City
SLD: 12/29/05 $596,510
OLP: 11/06/08 $574,900
DOM: 2
MLS#: 2598688
47 Woodland Drive
Lebanon Twp
SLD: 07/23/04 $370,000
OLP: 11/03/08 $369,900
DOM: 5
That’s the DENIAL special. 100 bucks off…
This last one is bit unusual. Also 100 bucks off the last sale price. But check the date of the last sale:
MLS#: 2598199
311 FAWNWOOD DR
Milford Boro
SLD: 10/28/1986 $160,000
OLP: 11/03/08 $159,900
DOM: 5
Tax records say the owner is the Central Beef Company of Needham Heights MA.
Huh…???
You might not get a tax break hobokenite, but I have a feeling that nation would thank you.
RE101….Nancy, let’s let the occult guide our actions, Reagan…..was a joke. So was her Husband….now about that firearm…..
393…I am researching it now and will let you know…I live in an area where no one uses the schools and plan to send mine to another towns (at my cost)…..it is a great option to have but will be $$$.
Pat (382)-
Talk about Failure Friday! And Ranieri manages to avoid subprime…only to be wiped out by builders and developers defaulting.
This is only the tip of the iceberg on commercial RE. There are scores of banks, insurance companies and pensions that have bankrolled worthless commercial RE development. These lenders and the builders have kept a pact of silence and denial to prevent the outside world from realizing how sour these deals are.
These deals will, however, come to light.
392…In case you haven’t figured it out yet….Ob*m* is a perfect choice for the office. Things are going to get bad for everyone…but the people who will feel it worse (as usual) are the poor. Perhaps have the “O man” in office will keep these folks from rioting in the streets….perhaps.
Grim,
Weekly hinterlands report in moderation.
Not sure what I did wrong…
http://www.usnews.com/blogs/the-best-life/2008/11/7/its-time-to-review-retirement-path.html?s_cid=rss:the-best-life:its-time-to-review-retirement-path
“.. it is a very good time to revisit fundamental assumptions about your future spending needs…”
Mike Morgan is now clearly becoming sleep-deprived. His take on things is still terrific, but his writing has developed an even nastier, snarkier, more urgent tone. Now, he’s taken to commenting on headlines from various news sources. Pretty funny:
http://realestateandhousing2.blogspot.com/
http://www.thirdage.com/retirement/us-companies-trimming-retirement-help
“The Vanguard Group Inc. said its research indicates about 5 percent of company plans it manages suspended or reduced matches in the 2001 to 2003 recession…
The real impact on the worker isn’t from the loss of $1,500 but rather the lost opportunity to benefit from the compounding of interest on that money over time..”
essex,
welcome to the whole school voucher issue…..
it will not happen as long as the Teachers unions are intact. School vouchers would be a huge threat to their power.
unintended consequences…..
Who is going to pay for the montreal 2010 olympics? will coke/pepsi and friends still have the money by then, will the city?????
The City of Vancouver has agreed to lend up to $100 million to bail out the financially troubled company building the athletes village for the 2010 Winter Olympic Games, CBC News has confirmed.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/cbc/081106/canada/vancouver_bc_olympic_village_vancouver_bailout
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/07/AR2008110703869.html
AIG in Talks to Rework Terms of Federal Bailout
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/07/AR2008110703910.html
Heck make imported cars illegal in the United States for one year
you mean force people to buy crappy, unreliable American cars?
pass
speaking of cars … I’m going out to LA and looking to rent a high-end (ish) car for a few days.
Can anyone recommend a place? Going out there for business for a 3 days and figured I might as well live it up (a bit). Max on $200 a day, seeing as it is a business expense.
I was thinking Porsche, but i can’t find one for under 200 a day. not a fan of soft-top convertibles, either.
I never owned a gun before, but I’m going to have to get one before he takes away the right of us to bear arms.
this has been discussed on this board for months now. when are you going to concede that the guys you have grappled with on this board have BEEN RIGHT ALL ALONG?
guns
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/07/us/07guns.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html
Did we catch this yesterday?
Bank Failure Friday:
Security Pacific Bank – LA
Franklin Bank – Houston, TX
“You might not get a tax break hobokenite, but I have a feeling that nation would thank you.”
Thank me for what?
Essex,
You have the same dilemma my parents had when they bought their first house in Hillside. My brother and I had to go to private schools our whole lives, and my dad used to tell us all the time that he had to pay for two schools for each of us. Now they say they should have just tried to go for a nicer town in the first place, but they just couldn’t afford it.
As Hobokenite points out, there are tons of things my taxes pay for that I wish I could opt out of, but it doesn’t work that way.
It is an interesting dilemma..one I am sure I will resolve….but in fact…I like my place…my neighborhood is amazing….no real intention on moving or selling right now….and the cost per year of private school or even paying for a better school in the next town over ($11k per year)for one very cool kid….is relatively reasonable compared to the cost of relocating….
essex-
one issue you may want to keep in mind is that all his friends will be in another town. i’m not sure how all the sports/activity stuff works in nj when kids are younger, but he may feel left out when all his school friends are on town teams, and he can’t join. additionally, he could feel left out when all his neighborhood friends have a common school, and he doesn’t.
also, it could be a drag when he wants to do something after school, and he’s not close to home. when my kids were younger, we lived close to the school, and it felt very much like a neighborhood – because everyone sort of knew each other and was involved in something that had to do with the school. (at that time I lived in Boston)
Good point. Might be time to move. Perhaps.
To 340:
Re: Your message
Relax, we understand…. We are goofing off…. Just remember when you hear those clicks in your phone or in your car stereo is only us…. actually our computers….
Against The Grain Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Memo to our NSA Overlords:
Please be advised that I in no way condone nuking anything in America or that which is owned by any company traded on an American stock exchange.
Essex, do you have a source for this?
“Fun fact…53% of NEA members send their own kids to private schools….”
mom’s landlord is a car dealer. he mentioned that last month he had one sale. one car drove off his lot.
since the election, however, things are back to normal.
dead car bounce?
412
Essex
where did you find a private for 11K? I’m pricing them at 16k in Middlesex county
Two places for $10-11k….one private (parochial and not my first choice) and a ‘high performing’ district very close to my place where we and the kid in question have a lot of friends as she went to pre school there. As for the 53% stat….try as I might I could not locate it online…read it in a magazine I seem to recall. Sorry.
RE…you are one really good reason that things are completely f’ed up these days….your party is over….but unfortunately so are a lot of other people’s…..party….and for the record….you can gleefully watch every move the guys makes…the intelligent people here know the score….and don’t look to the gubmint to save their sorry asses.
Are there legless skinks in New Jersey (skinks, a reptile, not a John story)?
I found 2 of them today while sweeping leaves off the walkway. About the size of an earthworm, looked kind of like this, but solid color, and no legs. (hence legless) http://www.uga.edu/srelherp/lizards/scilat.htm
The little buggers slither like a snake too. I don’t think they were Eastern worm snakes, the skins looked different.
Club (424)-
Don’t look directly at Tard’s posts for too long. They’ll melt your brain.
bairen (425)-
“Are there legless skinks in New Jersey…”
Look in Tard’s family tree.
yikes Says:
November 8th, 2008 at 10:48 am
“…Heck make imported cars illegal in the United States for one year
you mean force people to buy crappy, unreliable American cars?..”
Ya’know “yikes”—I have ‘listened’ to American-vs-Import car “experts” on this blog as well as others about the so-called “crappy and unreliable American cars..” I know, I know–a lot of them were pieces of crap in the 1960’s, 1970’s and the first half of the 1980’s. Since that time I have had very little problem with the several U.S. vehicles that I have purchased; And this experience is coming from a person who has had over fifty cars/vans of all types since the 1960,s.
My first few cars (as an example)were: 52′ Dodge, 54’Ford,55’Chevy
57’Merc turnpike cruiser, 57’lincoln, 58′ 59′ 62’Chev Impalas ; several Nash/AMC metropolitians; 63’Caddy 68′ Dodge Charger etc. etc . Lots of others throughout the 70’s and 80’s like the Chrysler Cordoba (“w/rich corenthen leather..”) and the POS 84’Caddy eldorado and a few others –You get the point, I am not trying to impress–I am just giving you and others here a rundown on what I had owned in the past and I had personally mechanically maintained.
American-made cars/vans/trucks have greatly improved to the point (IMHO) of meeting the standards of MOST foreign imports. There is no better example than what I have been driving for the past five years: 1994 Ford E-350 V-8 Econoline XL van-[Business Work Horse]-210,500 miles on the ‘clock’ and a 1998 Chrysler Town/Country mini-van 206,260 miles. Original engines,trans and very reliable .Both Bought used and personally maintained….When these vehicles finally ‘give-up the ghost’ I would NOT hesitate to buy American again,,
Commander BOB
BOB-
You must have got one of the rare Chrysler mini-vans with a trans that DIDN’T blow up inside of 60K miles. We had the Dodge version, and sure enough, right after the warranty ran out…..big trouble. The Dodge dealer worked with us, as he explained it, “because he was seeing a lot of these” in the shop.
I agree GM has come a long way. My wife has a CTS that is awesome. And my MIL has a new Impala that is loaded and quite some car. I think they were single-handedly trying to rescue GM with these purchases.
This is frickin unbelievable!!
“What she got was a mortgage she could not afford. Toward the $385,000 cost, Ms. Natale made a down payment of $185,000, a little less than what she took away from the sale of her grandfather’s home. The loan that made up the difference, with closing costs, broker’s fee, taxes and insurance, meant a monthly bill of $1,873.96, about $100 less than her monthly take-home pay as an administrative assistant.“.
WTF!!!! I have no sympathy for their sob stories – single mother, 3 kids – says she needed a house to make her kids feel better. How did it come about to be like this – no sacrifices, I want everything right now! You have $100 left after you have pay off your mortgage, and you feel that your kids are safer after this fact?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/09/nyregion/09neediest2.html?hp
Uh…Re….I own a house….hold down a job….pay taxes….and am really glad to see another group in charge of spending that money….the Repubs really screwed the pooch this time…no one roots for failure. No one should ‘reward’ it. Time for a new song and dance….
and btw it looks like every corporate entity from Wall Street to Detroit is looking for a ‘redistribution’ of the tax money we regular folks work for. So don’t give any of that welfare crap.
this article from a former kerry people is pretty fair in my opinion.
The Treatment of W Has Been a Disgrace
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122584386627599251.html
Please do not feed trolls. No good can come from it.
CHRIS MATTHEWS: Yeah, well, you know what? I want to do everything I can to make this thing work, this new presidency work, and I think that —
JOE SCARBOROUGH: Is that your job? You just talked about being a journalist!
MATTHEWS: Yeah, it is my job. My job is to help this country.
Matthews wasn’t done with his odd new job description . . . An incredulous Scarborough kept pressing, astonished at such a complete 180 from Matthews’s repeated insistence during the GWB presidency that he had to hold the government accountable.
SCARBOROUGH: Your job is the make this presidency work?
MATTHEWS: To make this work successfully. This country needs a successful presidency.
Won some more in AC this weekend as I went down there to pick up a free cruise. Saw a Wawa around Fort Dix that was selling regular for $1.95 a gallon. WOW!
Went down to AC with $30 in wallet. Casino’s gave me about $210 in cash. Came home with $1350. There’s a little noodle shop hidden in Showboat that has pretty decent Asian eats for AC. Had their Roast Duck with Bok Choy (awesome) and some Kim Chee (weak) this time. All in all, I couldn’t complain. Showboat was busy on Friday Night for the Dropkick Murphy’s, but dead Saturday. Bally’s was dead both Friday and Saturday. On the bright side, Showboat had $5 blackjack tables on Saturday. Hadn’t seen a $5 table in ages in there. Typically they are $15 on Saturday.
Enjoy your Sundays folks.
Me happy.
For the folks considering getting a gun.
If you have a pretty good idea what you want in terms of caliber, don’t fret about guns being outlawed. The Heller case in DC this past year secured the individual right. I have little fear that they will become unavailable to legit citizens.
However, the Heller case said nothing about ammo, and the gun grabbers have focused on curbing ammo sales as a way to make guns useless to ordinary citizens. Presently, there are two bills in NJ that would make ammo riduculously expensive, so expensive it would be unavailable. I dont think that such “inverse condemnation” would survive in court, but it takes a long time to get a case to the Supremes.
The second risk is permits. NJ cannot take away your right to own, but they can make it damn hard to get a permit, and will ratchet up the fees for it. Irrespective of the election, I expect towns to jack up these fees to capture revenues, especially since they are expecting a flood of applications.
In my considered, legal, opinion, anyone considering owning a gun eventually should apply IMMEDIATELY for the requisite permits. Its better to have it and not need it, than to need it and not have it. Get in now before prices go up.
Also, especially if you can do so now legally in some places, such as in PA, purchase the ammo. Don’t bother with rifle ammo—that wont be made illegal. Get handgun ammo in a caliber that you expect to buy, such as 9mm.
Finally, when you are ready (and properly permitted), find and select your gun. By waiting, you avoid the shelf-clearing panic buying going on right now. Many of these guns are bought for resale. Don’t buy the hype that you have to buy before 1/20/09.
Remember, NJ or the feds can’t attack gun ownership directly, so the only remaining avenues of attack are to make ammo expensive and scarce, and to make licensing hard.
Beat them before they try to restrict your rights, and send a strong signal to Trenton and the transition team.
NJ already makes it tough to get a gun. Just another example of how great lawmakers are protecting the average person….and letting the lawlessness of Camden and Irvington become a joke to the rest of the world. In PA, you simply walk in a store show ID and buy.
“I’m not against the bailout either. I’m against income redistribution and taking my damn money away from me and giving it out as welfare.”
How do you make it in to bed each night with your head constantly spinning?
Start tearing out your walls, folks:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hHJNCy_68fJtiIPaltzwBwynBdkAD94AUVCO0
Skinks? Last time I saw any of those was in the Statehouse.
Ranieri Becomes Victim
Not sure whether to be surprised at this one.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122341998131613065.html
Bailout Includes Key Tax Breaks
grim (439)-
I doubt Ranieri will end up living under an overpass.
The real story here are the hundreds of other smaller banks that are about to be wiped out due to exposure to failing commercial RE/construction loans.
Like Shiller a lot. Really do.
but anyone have thoughts on this?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/09/business/09shiller.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
Later in the article, he essentially calls for the govt to provide financial advisers for the people. At least i think he does.
No commenting in a long while, but I still look in now and again.
Grim your “Rube Goldberg” comment in the election thread was priceless.
And since I’m here, I think I might be an angel of death or something. In O4, after years in the newspaper business, I got a job in the housing industry. This year, I began working in the “gaming” industry. Just saying.
Yes, yikes. This is similar to designing a new global financial system that has “fee-less” components. Socialization of certain risks that should be born by the few who profit from having a system available to them,
For example, most banks that are large enough can eliminate fee checking for many patrons. Just about anyone starting out can find a free checking offer. This indicates to me that this should be a free service of the system. No ill-informed consumer should be paying certain fees simply because of an educational gap.
Financial advice would work up to this free level eventually, if you follow the educational pyramid of logic. No one should pay for a service that is available for free to those to know how to get it for free.
It’s another internet benefit.
but pat, if you have the government essentially telling you how to invest, what to invest in, and pulling the strings … what do you think will happen?
i do agree a large segment of the population is stupid and doesn’t save and wastes money … but i just dont see how governmental programs will help people all of a sudden “see the light.”
Why is the system itself the advice? A government may create a public works project to build a system (bridge), but the vehicles that drive over the bridge don’t necessarily need to be public entities.
The government essential built the internet.
Does that mean that the government tells us how to use it? Where to go? How much to pay for various services?