This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.
For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.
For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.
From the Star Ledger:
Morristown council approves $200M Speedwell Avenue redevelopment
Morristown’s immigrant enclave on Speedwell Avenue will be transformed into a $200 million contemporary-style complex of homes and businesses, following a town council vote last night to approve the plans.
The council voted 5-2 after a nearly three-hour heated debate on the proposal, which asserts eminent domain can be used to make way for 650 residential units, 35,000 square feet of retail and office space and 822 parking spaces.
Voting in favor of the proposal were John Cryan, Rebecca Feldman, James Smith, Raline Smith-Reid and Anthony Cattano, Jr. Alison Deeb and Michelle Harris-King voted against it.
More than 30 residents attended the meeting, many of them stepping forward to voice their opinions. Some, like Brenda Towns, 62, urged the council to push ahead with a plan she felt would give her neighborhood a much-needed “facelift.”
But others, including Frank Vitolo, 35, questioned whether the town should go ahead with such a large-scale project given the current economic climate.
“Nobody, I mean nobody, is building condos right now,” said Vitolo, an attorney who represents redevelopers in Hoboken.
“4.5 percent mortgage: Will it work?”
“Still, the housing industry likes the sound of the plan, reportedly being pushed by Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr., that would cut rates to 4.5 percent. The experts have already calculated results.
“We predict that it will immediately sell 500,000 houses,” said National Association of Realtors spokesman Walt Molony, speaking for the 1.26-million-member group.”
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/business/20081205_4_5_percent_mortgage__Will_it_work_.html
Did some searches on the PA side. Amazed at the number of properties where asking price is at or above 2005/6 last sale. I have cash and time. The waiting game continues.
“I have cash and time. The waiting game continues.”
my sentiments exactly.
DL I am stunned at the prices I see compared to the peak levels. Little or no drop, some cases an increase. Spoke to a few fellow realtors yesterday and all feel as if a life preserver has been thrown to them at 4.5% The “herd mentality” knows no boundary’s and there has been way too much mooing and grazing going on over at the local realtor board. stupid is forever.
Good News For Modern Man: Congressional Bickering- From Mish
” Two top U.S. lawmakers warned Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson that he may not get the second half of the $700 billion financial rescue fund, joining Republicans upset with how the program is being managed.
“I would be a very hard person to convince that this crowd deserves to have their hands on the next $350 billion,” Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd told reporters yesterday in Washington, referring to the Bush administration. “I am through with giving this crowd money to play with.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/good-news-for-modern-man-congressional.html
#5 cooper,
To bad it took Dodd 7 years and 11 months to come to that conclusion.
DL #3
how far from NYC was your search areas?
I’d think PA would have had more of a correction by now, the kool aid must have been VERY strong
I was looking at some of the train towns north of Phila. Jenkintown, Abington. Trulia posts previous sale history. Current asking prices not only out of whack with comps but still 100-200% above 98-2000 sale prices. Still a lot of air that needs to be let out of the bubble.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/The-liquidity-trap/story.aspx?guid=%7BF9D12BF3%2DECA9%2D46C2%2DA315%2DDCF1A8A9566F%7D&dist=SecMostRead#comments
The Liquidity Trap – Marketwatch
Commentary: Financial engineering seems worse than the alternative
Excerpts..
Learning From the New Deal
“So why didn’t the New Deal produce the desired results? One concept now gaining a following is the crowding out effect of government intervention in klarge areas of economic activity. As new projects were created under government control, the productive assets got sucked out of private hands. The government could pay higher wages and command lower material costs essentially pushing any hope of private competition aside. To enhance their commanding position, laws were passed to favor the government entities over private business.”
Well, well..instead of “maky worky” infrastructure – or along with it – What we still need are real industries, with real products we can export, creating real long-term jobs, paying real wages.
I as usual, have no idea what that is. But it doesn’t seem prudent to be taking away business from the private sector when we should be adding to it…
everyone put up their christmas tree yet? that’s fun.
#8 DL
That’s my neck of the woods. Realtytrac shows that area is heading for a big crash price wise. The taxes in Abington and Jenkintown are ridiculous too. I’m hoping to buy a place for under 175k for the inlaws initially but as a rental later, but I’m keeping my focus on Whitemarsh (Lafayette Hill and parts of Conshohocken) and Plymouth.
I’m hoping by the end of summer ’09 I’ll be able to pick up a place for under 150k.
we put up a pole, ate, and all was right in the world.
Festivus for the rest of us!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQFLqMyo0fo&eurl=http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=festivus&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&clientiurl=http://i1.ytimg.com/vi/HQFLqMyo0fo/hqdefault.jpg
There’s plenty more where these came from. At 3-5% a year how do you arrive at these numbers? And that’s not even considering the condition of the houses.
http://www.trulia.com/property/1070119364-8123-Heacock-Ln-Wyncote-PA-19095
http://www.trulia.com/property/1041115107-8376-Glen-Rd-Elkins-Park-PA-19027
anyone know what time the jobs report comes out?
#12 – 8:30
Grim: 12 and 13 duplicates and both in mod. I believe one of the addresses in the link contains a bad word. Apologies, just delete.
Frist!
An open letter to Hank Paulson,
We, the real estate investors of America, have united to express our concern about being ignored as a prominent part of the financial landscape of this country. We believe that it’s important to have a TARP like program to address the very real issues our group faces. As you know, real estate investment serves an extremely important function in our economy and we believe supporting that function is paramount in addressing the nation’s financial crisis. We propose two important new initiatives:
1) Creation of a Real Estate Investors
Ass(et) Recovery Program (REIARP). I need money and this program will give it to me interest free with no repayment terms.
2) A bulldozing program. The supply of homes needs to be curtailed as a price support mechanism. We support bulldozing homes the minute they reach foreclosure. The family evicted would be required to buy another home.
These two measures will go a long way towards removing my ass(ets) from the sling in which it currently resides.
Thanking you in advance,
R.E. Investor 101
.
Bailout Nation Will Tolerate No Dissent
Posted by Equity Private, Dec 04, 2008, 3:41pm
Message to diligent administrators concerned with the preservation of taxpayer dollars: Get in the way of the bailout juggernaut and you will make powerful enemies. Consider the plight of FDIC head Sheila Bair:
Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, has argued Bair isn’t a team player and is too focused on protecting her agency rather than the financial system as a whole, according to two congressional officials and a person familiar with his thinking. Bair has battled with Geithner and fellow regulators over aid to Citigroup Inc. and other emergency actions, making her enemies in the Bush administration.
http://dealbreaker.com/2008/12/bailout-nation-will-tolerate-n.php
Does anyone else think it is odd to watch Frank/Dodd councel CEOs on well-run companies?
Don’t you just want one of these execs to fire back a question like “And you are an expert because….oh, I don’t know… you managed your responsibilities so well and avoided government intervention?”
Oh I wish I lived in the south…..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCAz9RrYFuQ&feature=rec-HM-r2
more….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSzOd__feIw&feature=related
Chifi and the crowd goes wild!
Maybe the taxes are worth it up here.
Chicago – (19) (20)
“Off to school… field trip today…” What a riot..
Guess what? Your miserly habits here aren’t helping the damn economy. You’re as bad as those damn commies in China. You only spent $ 1000 on clothes during the past three years? You refuse to buy and damn car and want to freeload off your relatives instead? You’re probably the type that supports these damn Amish grocery stores selling expired medicine and grocery stuffs. There’s another individual here who even refuses to buy certain “toiletries”, because they’re too “expensive”. Is that your mode of operation as well?
People like you need to be detained to undergo re-education.
#215 from yesterdayyikes Says:
December 4th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
People who are too cheap to buy something? People saving 80% of their income?
sounds like me and my wife the last three years. our only big ticket items have been a few vacations.
bought a used car and got one free from a relative; waiting for the 2009 TVs to go on the market and then bought a 2008 at a low price; i might have spent $1000 on clothes in the last three years combined.
i’ll say this – it feels good to have money in your pocket and nothing to worry about.
Jay Leno:
“A little bit of history trivia. It was this week, actually yesterday in 1961, that Fidel Castro announced he was a Marxist and would turn Cuba into a communist country where the government would take over all of the major industries…or as we call that today, a bailout.”
Courtesy: The White House Bulletin.
“An open letter to Hank Paulson”
50.5,
LMAO. Great stuff.
RayC Says:
December 4th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
UNION COUNTY SALES REPORT – AUG-OCT
I have been looking in Mountainside and Westfield, I got the following sales info from Trulia’s recent sales. (Grim, if you wouldn’t mind sending me the sales for those towns, I would like to confirm the Trulia’s list. I am desperately trying to avoid work.)
Mountainside SFH (39 currently listed)
MONTH AVG SP #sales
Aug 664k 12
Sep 621K 8
Oct 564K 6
Westfield SFH (144 currently listed)
MONTH AVG SP #sales
Aug 820k 41
Sep 879k 35
Oct 578K 25
In Westfield in there were 10 SFHs that sold for over a million dollars in August, and 10 in September. In October, there was 1 – and the average sale price dropped $300k.
Its not like they ran out of expensive homes – there are currently 48 for sale in Westfield for more than a million.
Copy & Paste didn’t work very well. I’d be happy to email it to you.
AREA MARKET ANALYSIS REPORT – BY DATE (Six Months Back)
SEARCH CRITERIA County Code: 29 Town Code: 2920 From: 6/2008 To: 11/2008
PROPERTY TYPE RES
BY TOWN: Westfield Twp. (2920)
MMM,YYYY
Active Listings
New Listings
Under Contract
Sold Listings
#
Avg. LP Med. LP #
Avg. LP Med. LP # Avg. LP Med. LP Avg.
DOM # Avg. SP Med. SP Avg.
DOM SP/LP
Nov,2008 205 $890,201 $699,900 25 $682,464 $539,000 11 $662,700 $650,000 67 13 $832,731 $601,000 137 96%
Oct,2008 216 $918,009 $749,000 47 $796,134 $649,000 13 $826,777 $645,000 82 21 $659,488 $560,000 49 97%
Sep,2008 204 $949,704 $785,900 48 $846,882 $635,000 14 $661,179 $635,000 71 26 $758,667 $601,000 76 97%
Aug,2008 195 $980,591 $799,900 23 $901,909 $799,900 18 $744,028 $579,900 112 36 $799,042 $715,000 91 95%
Jul,2008 237 $981,166 $749,000 49 $928,729 $799,900 33 $785,173 $649,000 81 34 $796,544 $750,000 65 97%
Jun,2008 239 $985,101 $750,000 43 $827,495 $630,000 31 $851,090 $750,000 70 41 $830,695 $685,000 60 95%
Period 1: 1296 $951,938 235 $838,145 120 $774,844 80 171 $785,419 74 96%
Sum Period 1: 1296 $951,938 235 $838,145 120 $774,844 80 171 $785,419 74 96%
AREA MARKET ANALYSIS REPORT – BY DATE (Six Months Back)
SEARCH CRITERIA County Code: 29 Town Code: 2910 From: 6/2008 To: 11/2008
PROPERTY TYPE RES
BY TOWN: Mountainside Boro (2910)
MMM,YYYY
Active Listings
New Listings
Under Contract
Sold Listings
#
Avg. LP Med. LP #
Avg. LP Med. LP # Avg. LP Med. LP Avg.
DOM # Avg. SP Med. SP Avg.
DOM SP/LP
Nov,2008 48 $925,454 $705,000 4 $599,150 $519,000 4 $760,750 $620,000 110 6 $695,167 $541,000 50 95%
Oct,2008 57 $875,716 $659,000 12 $643,808 $559,000 3 $591,667 $575,000 25 7 $554,143 $520,000 88 94%
Sep,2008 63 $875,741 $744,900 14 $871,629 $705,000 6 $807,817 $759,000 80 5 $589,200 $510,000 104 93%
Aug,2008 64 $845,594 $649,000 7 $910,129 $539,000 9 $608,967 $575,000 95 6 $719,833 $640,000 91 96%
Jul,2008 66 $859,882 $715,000 10 $854,990 $620,000 4 $586,600 $549,000 91 9 $663,444 $650,000 58 92%
Jun,2008 71 $838,523 $699,000 6 $664,450 $599,900 10 $762,500 $675,000 70 5 $680,500 $575,000 50 92%
Period 1: 369 $866,977 53 $777,974 36 $697,695 81 38 $649,697 72 94%
Sum Period 1: 369 $866,977 53 $777,974 36 $697,695 81 38 $649,697 72 94%
I would like to announce I have successfully funded my Roth IRA for the year – $6,000. – WHOOHOO!
No, it isn’t an SRS play – but it a proud moment for me. Kind of a nerd – huh…
jobs in two minutes
-537,000!
OUCH!
Cindy the dog and pony show over Auto Bailout is just a smoke screen. Dodd, Frank et all should have the banksters up there explaining why they won’t lend to GM, Crysler, and Ford.
(BC) JOBS!
Run for the hills.
N.Y. Approves ICE Credit-Default Swap Clearing Plan (Update2)
By Matthew Leising
Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) — New York approved Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s application to form a state-regulated trust to guarantee trades in the $31 trillion credit-default swap market, boosting the company’s bid to beat rival CME Group Inc. in running a clearinghouse for the trades.
The state Banking Department approved the application after a meeting today, Chairman Richard Neiman said in a statement. The approval paves the way for Intercontinental, the second-largest U.S. futures exchange also known as ICE, to raise capital to fund the clearinghouse, according to the statement. ICE U.S. Trust LLC, as the subsidiary is known, still needs regulatory approval from the Federal Reserve.
“We have worked closely with our counterparts at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in overseeing this industry initiative,” Neiman said in the statement. A clearinghouse for CDS contracts will “reduce systemic risk” within the banking industry, he said.
The Fed has been pushing for a clearinghouse after Lehman Brothers Inc., one of the largest dealers in the CDS market, went bankrupt in September, threatening the stability of its trading partners. A clearinghouse, capitalized by its members, all but eliminates counterparty default risk by becoming the buyer for every seller and the seller for every buyer.
CME Group
Chicago-based CME Group, the world’s largest futures market, is seeking to use its existing clearinghouse to back CDS trades. It still requires regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as well as license agreements from Markit Group Ltd., which owns the most used CDS indexes and pricing systems.
A clearinghouse owner could earn between $100 million and $400 million a year in revenue from clearing CDS trades, according to estimates by Wachovia Capital Markets and Keefe Bruyette & Woods Inc.
NYSE Euronext and Eurex AG are also seeking to clear CDS trades. ICE earlier this year said it will buy the Clearing Corp., the clearinghouse owned by banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., to secure commitments from nine dealers in the CDS market to participate in its plan.
Credit-default swaps are contracts conceived to protect bondholders against default. They pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a company fail to adhere to its debt agreements. An increase indicates deterioration in the perception of credit quality; a decline signals the opposite.
ICE fell 32 cents to $66.49 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading while CME Group dropped $4.83, or 2.7 percent, to $177.46 in Nasdaq Stock Market trading.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aMpURPJNeFYw
Cindy [27],
You go girl!
Are you happy that Pat Hill pulled his name out of consideration for the Huskie job?
(Sean) What a joke – huh. I just can’t believe these Washington guys are allowed to question anyone’s business acumen….
Finally….from Troll to Droll….
very funny, reInvestor…I like your sense of humor.
sl
I guess the Bush administration either a) can no longer pad the unemployment stats or b) now that the election is over no longer cares to pad the stats.
That’s nearly 200K more jobs lost than they were expecting.
Big deal unemployment up.
Dow and S&P futures found it to be a big deal, no?
Don’t let the gumbit fool you, this is no alternative gauge, it’s the real deal. This is now up 50%, yoy. DUCK!
“An alternative gauge of unemployment – which includes discouraged workers and those whose hours have been cut back to part-time – rose to 12.5% from 11.8%. The number of workers forced to work part-time rose by 621,000 to 7.3 million.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Payrolls-plunge-stunning-533000-November/story.aspx?guid=%7B5446C124%2D6428%2D4C60%2D8CB9%2D30505CCA12AA%7D
(34) BC – You know about that? Wow. Oh mixed I guess. We always hope for better, year after year…
Did you catch that I sat with the Oregon State BB team at the airport in Portland for an hour – Cool guys (They went on to beat us last Sunday – which is good – they went into the game 0-4) ANYWAY – turns out – that the coach I sat and talked to was none other than – Michelle’s big brother – Craig Robinson. How weird is that.
Is it really? Back in 1982 when unemployment was high workers consisted of men, single women, married women no kids and married women with grown kids. Women did not have an oppotunity to stay in the workforce with young children. Pretty much at my first job we always threw a big shower for the young newly married girl who was having her first baby as it was almost her going away party. We stopped those showers many years ago cause the women come back. Lets say we back out out all working mothers from the labor stats and then compare them back to the depression or 1982 cause back then they were not considered unemployed and were removed from the stats.
HEHEHE Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 8:45 am
I guess the Bush administration either a) can no longer pad the unemployment stats or b) now that the election is over no longer cares to pad the stats.
That’s nearly 200K more jobs lost than they were expecting.
“Big deal unemployment up.”
John,
Tell that to someone who just lost their job.
Heard a piece on NPR the other night and they profiled a few different couples where being stuck with a house they cant sell and being forced to move due to a job was having a serious negative impact on their lives and marriage. Why would you not default at that point? Is your credit rating worth your quality of life being crap? The one couple hada home they couldnt sell and he was working as a professor in WV and she had a job in maine. They were paying 2 rents and carrying a mortgage on the house that was for sale!!!!
Why would someone with any financial sense even consider using the government program like the one suggested below by bernanke? Once it gets to that point, ot make smore sense for a large majority of people to walk away, granted it also depends on what sort of recourse laws the state you live in might have.
“More needs to be done,” Bernanke said in a speech to a Fed research conference on housing and mortgage markets in Washington today. “Policy initiatives to reduce the number of preventable foreclosures should be high on the agenda.” The government could buy “delinquent or at-risk mortgages in bulk,” then refinance them through the federal Hope for Homeowners program, Bernanke said. Congress could also help reduce loan rates and lender insurance premiums, he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8QEwRkHQ0fk&refer=home
—————————————————————
SL
You have mail!!!!
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/
Interesting observation about the proposed 4.5% interest rate… Also, check out the increased sales numbers in CA as house prices declined.
#23re@zzvise: Please get help with you fixation on a certain body part. Do it for your spouse.
Pimco Sees Pound Bottom as BOE Cuts Rate to 1951
Only Bill Gross can say “Pound Bottom” without everyone laughing, well maybe the flaming boys might giggle but that is about it.
Cindy #9
you are correct. The other problem with a public works project focused on infrastructure is that the US economy is no longer based on manual labor like it was in the 30’s.
A Penny Saved
Only months ago, ordering that $1,950 bottle of 2003 Screaming Eagle Cabernet Sauvignon at Craft restaurant or the $26-per-ounce Wagyu beef at Nobu, or sliding into Masa for the $600 prix fixe dinner (not including tax, tip, or drinks), was a way of life for many Wall Street investment bankers. “The culture was that if you didn’t spend extravagantly you’d be ridiculed at work,” says a former Lehmanite. But that was when there were investment banks. Now many bankers, along with discovering $15 bottles of wine, are finding other ways to cut back—if not out of necessity, then from collective guilt and fear: the fitness trainer from three times a week to once a week; the haircut and highlights every eight weeks instead of every five. One prominent “hedgie” recently flew to China for business—but not on a private plane, as before. “Why should I pay $250,000 for a private plane,” he said to a friend, “when I can pay $20,000 to fly commercial first class?”
The new thriftiness takes a bit of getting used to. “I was at the Food Emporium in Bedford [in Westchester County] yesterday, using my Food Emporium discount card,” recounts one Greenwich woman. “The well-dressed wife of a Wall Street guy was standing behind me. She asked me how to get one. Then she said, ‘Have you ever used coupons?’ I said, ‘Sure, maybe not lately, but sure.’ She said, ‘It’s all the rage now—where do you get them?’”
One former Lehman executive in her 40s stood in her vast clothes closet not long ago, talking to her personal stylist. On shelves around her were at least 10 designer handbags that had cost her anywhere from $6,000 to $10,000 each.
(48) Kettle – The government is taking work away from private industry – NO! We NEED new businesses to spring up…
Didn’t someone once post all of the new industries/companies who based their start-up during the Depression years?
See’s Candy comes to mind…???
Reason I mention the clearing house for CDS is because the spreads are only widening on everything. What I heard yesterday only confirms my reslove to buy more ammo.
Bonds that should be triple AAA are going for 18% or higher.
The Muni Bond MCDX index jumped 30 basis points yesterday to a record 290 basis points and has climbed 100 basis points the past few days.
Talk about a credit contraction, when banks like Barclays are borrowing money from the Soverign Weath Funds at 15% interest.
Folks we are now only really starting to see the Credit contraction, the exiting commitments to fund compaines credit lines is drying up at a record pace and pretty soon it is going to become beyond prohibitive for a company to borrow.
Anyone not holding cash is doomed.
(51) Sean “Anyone not holding cash is doomed.” I’m trying! (Thanks to everyone here.)
Dr. Doom Foresees Much More Pain: So Why Is Roubini’s 401(k) All in Stocks?
Posted Dec 05, 2008 07:00am EST by Aaron Task in Newsmakers, Recession, Banking
Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at NYU Stern School and chairman of RGE Monitor, has earned the nickname “Dr. Doom” for his dire predictions about the economy over the last couple of years (most of which have come true).
So it was a shocker when word got out on Wall Street that Roubini was the most bullish guy in the room at a recent dinner he hosted in NYC. There were even rumors Roubini’s retirement account was 100% in stocks (since confirmed).
Has Dr. Doom become a raging bull?
Not quite. But with the financial meltdown in full, protracted swing, it seems as if the rest of the world has caught up with him.
“The mainstream is getting closer to my views about a very severe U.S. and global recession,” he says. “On the other side, I’m not in the Armageddon camp,” forecasting a severe recession through 2009, but not a repeat of the Great Depression.
So why is Roubini’s 401(k) 100% in equities? He’s not an active investor, and “over 10 to 20 years equities outperform any other asset class,” he says in the accompanying video.
Unlike so many others, Roubini’s not calling a bottom, for sure: He sees another 20%-30% downside risk for stocks, and advises that investors avoid all “risky assets,” including commodities for the foreseeable future. Instead, he recommends Treasuries and, over the medium term, corporate debt.
In case you need further proof that Dr. Doom hasn’t lost his edge, Roubini predicts that macroeconomic news and earnings will be much worse than expected in the coming months, as the dollar weakens even further. “The surprise is how bad the the economy [will get].”
At least there’s some things you can still count on in an uncertain world.
RE101(16) –
I nominate this for the post of the year!
Sean, iliquid high interest safe products are the only buy and hold game in town. A triple AAA muni at 6% is a 10% yield for a high earner. As long as you have laddered and you have a solid income stream even in event of job loss you do not have to liquidate quickly. Yea six months to a year cash is key, but if you lose you job and all cash is at 2% you will start burning through principal as soon as you lose you job.
Sean,
Whats going to be really interesting is to see what happens when a significant # of americans either cant or refuse to repay consumer debt. This is going to happen and is only a matter of time. The question is, which side will the government take. Will we see wide spread debt forgiveness, or will we see debtors prison 2.0?
I actually think that things may be in favor of some sort of debt forgiveness, as with things going down hill and likely to be pretty bad by the point we reach the consumer debt implosion, The Pols will be playing with fire if the stick to joe sixpack. Thats a good way to start a revolution. or start mass riots that you will need your 20K northcom troops to put down.
Muni of the day, 11% taxable equiv.
METROPOLITAN TRANSN AUTH N Y REV 05.00000% 11/15/2035 TRANSPORTATION REV BDS SER. 2005 Price (Ask) 81.039
Yield to Worst (Ask) 6.500%
Yield to Maturity 6.500065%
ket,
got it!
sl
from clot 53:
“In case you need further proof that Dr. Doom hasn’t lost his edge, Roubini predicts that macroeconomic news and earnings will be much worse than expected in the coming months, as the dollar weakens even further”
What am i missing? The dollar is not down, its through the roof. Is roubini being misquoted or what? The dollar index is around 86 and has been going up since it was at about 71 in march 08. that statement makes no sense.
http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/
vodka (59)-
Dollar vs yen? Not so good.
CNBC touting jobs number as “catalyst” for gubmint to go crazy with programs/bailouts.
Get ready for things to now get really, really bad. Bergabe, Klink, Frankfurter and the corrupt and clueless Dodd couldn’t run a lemonade stand. My fear is that by 1/20/09, they’ll have sown the final seeds for Biblical generation of crushing losses.
John, you may be first in line in bankrupcy court but you sure as hell aren’t going to get paid. This whole mess is going to blow up sooner than later. Buy and hold is dead, the CDS spreads on Corporate debt are widening worldwide, and there are no “safe products” if Munis are not safe.
#19 That ain’t nuthin’ When we had an exchange student staying with us, I thought it might be nice to take her to the Dixie dirt track for a little southern um, experience at the demolition derby. I asked around and was told sure, just don’t let her wear sandals. When I asked why, the reply was, “on account of the spit.” Rats. And I was hoping she’d see a little set-to between two NASCAR fans. You know, sitting in lawn chairs in the back of a pickup truck, one of them smoking through a hole in her neck. It’s all peaceful til one of ’em says, “Dale Earnhardt” and the other one says, “Jeff Gordon” and well, it just goes downhill from there.
(55)-
My nomination for dumbest thing posted here this year:
“Sean, iliquid high interest safe products are the only buy and hold game in town.”
Of course, by noon, John may be on his knees, begging at the altar of bailout.
Clott 60
Dollar vs yen? Not so good.
True, I asked because the dollar reference was very vague and only correct under certain circumstances. You could still argue that the statement on its face is incorrect. As the dollar against various baskets is up. Its only down against a few individuals currencies.
not trying to nitpick though….
From yesterdays talk about fast exchanges. Here is the biggest bottleneck in worldwide communications.
http://www.telegeography.com/products/map_cable/index.php
It’s comforting to know all the east cost comms come through a little hut in Sea Grit.
http://clusterstock.alleyinsider.com/2008/12/roubini-nuke-general-motors-gm-ceo-shareholders–then-bail-out
More Roubini from Clusterstock:
“Nuke General Motors CEOs, shareholders – then bail company out (GM)”
I finally figured out why clot is so damaged….he was in a serious accident several years ago caught on tape…..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxoKJA6DYR0&feature=related
taxation without representation, taxing the air you breathe, or breathe out…just
crazy: http://www.cnbc.com/id/28064860
re: #56 – Kettle1 The Obama corps could be a few million strong by then more than enough to put down any kind of insurrection except for a a military coup.
http://www.barackobama.com/pdf/NationalServicePlanFactSheet.pdf
re: #56 – Kettle1 The O’bama corps could be a few million strong by then more than enough to put down any kind of insurrection except for a a military coup.
http://tinyurl.com/5lcsbd
Can’t we all sign up on a website somewhere for a class action suit: Taxpayers vs. US Gov’t (local, state and Federal). I would love to see Cindy, clot, Kettle, myself all grilling them for a change)
That’s the kind of change I am looking for
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2TUhalNFDds&refer=home
“California, the world’s eighth largest economy, may pay vendors with IOUs for only the second time since the Great Depression, State Finance Director Mike Genest said.”
Oh great – Can I buy groceries with an IOU?
House Hunter – Did you catch the Dr. Housing Bubble post? Don’t you like that guy, too? Check out the sales/ price decline info.
House 69,
I see we are focusing on the important issues now!
If this is a soft landing, I’d hate to see a hard one! *trombone plays in background: wa wa wawawawawa*
# House Hunter Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 9:29 am
Can’t we all sign up on a website somewhere for a class action suit: Taxpayers vs. US Gov’t (local, state and Federal). I would love to see Cindy, clot, Kettle, myself all grilling them for a change)
That’s the kind of change I am looking for
HH 71
Um…. that’s called aRevolution.
You know…like the REAL Americans did back in 1770’s when we were being taxed out the @ss by the British.
Difference is today they are LOCAL and have fully emasculated out population by impoverishing them, keeping them unfit and attempting to disarm them (that’ll be next.)
Welcome to the new boss….same as the old boss only 230 years later and worse.
sl
out=our… in 71
150k price reduction on renovated colonial in Summit:
GSMLS 2570100 – 30 Division Ave
OLP – 849k
LP – 699k
http://newmls.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?method=getData&sysid=%203873419&ptype=RES&report=res_media&pubid=259341&fromPublic=PUBLIC
cindy, Dr housing bubble is great. He puts a lot of thought and research, with a hint of wit in his work
Cindy suing the govt would be funny since she is a govt employee she would be suing herself.
74 Kettle…things are getting more and more obsurd
76 still looking, look at the the credit card debt, auto debt, school loan debt and housing bubble…if they take all these things over, they own you for life.
very pivotal time, I hope we can take it back
Sean,
you dont need the O corps. they already have this.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Active_Denial_System
The sucky part is that if you are in the middle of the crowd and cant run away you get cooked “sizzle, sizzle”.
The fun part is that a corner reflector made of cardboard and tin foil can reflect the beam right back at the authorities!!!! Can they authorize lethal force if you do that?
Even crazier they want to tax cars in NY based on weight, not miles driven or price. Given that only wealthy folk bought priuses, minis and smartcards and us poor folk drive cheap used american cars and SUVs and since a lot of poor folk are unemployed they would be taxing the unemployed guys ten year old exploreer like crazy.
Walmart needs these for next year’s black friday’s sales.
Active Denial System
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Humvee with ADS mountedThe Active Denial System (ADS) is a non-lethal, directed-energy weapon developed by the U.S. military.[1] It is a strong millimeter-wave transmitter used for crowd control (the “goodbye effect”[2]). Informally, the weapon is also called pain ray.[3] Raytheon is currently marketing a reduced-range version of this technology.[4] The ADS is currently being considered for deployment in the Iraq War.
80…john doesn’t mean you can’t stand up for accoutablity of tax payer money. I heard a guy say something so simple, yet true the other day.
If you take your own money and buy yourself something you may watch your pennies. If you take your money and buy someone else a gift, you may be slightly more extravegant-possibly not. If someone gives you the money to buy someone else something, nothing holding you back. The gov’t takes someone else’s money and spends it, accountability out the window
SL,
The new boss has learned a number of new tricks and is much more sophisticated (i.e. dangerous) then the old boss. heck people cant even recognize indentured servitude anymore and think you are crazy for not drowning yourself in debt just to have some chinese bling
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The failure of any of the Big 3 automakers would be an “unmitigated disaster” in the midst of a recession, said Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. Speaking at the beginning of the second day of hearings on the automakers’ request for $34 billion in loans, Frank said bankruptcy of General Motors
I pay 100K in taxes each year and they are welcome to give my 100K to the auto makers. Anyone who is a civil servant or does not pay taxes should not even comment on the auto insustry. I love 100K cops and teachers saying it is unfair to use taxpaper money to keep autoworkers in 40K job. The real reason is they are afraid the govt will run out of money and they won’t be able to keep their “part time” 100k jobs.
House Hunter Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 9:47 am
80…john doesn’t mean you can’t stand up for accoutablity of tax payer money. I heard a guy say something so simple, yet true the other day.
If you take your own money and buy yourself something you may watch your pennies. If you take your money and buy someone else a gift, you may be slightly more extravegant-possibly not. If someone gives you the money to buy someone else something, nothing holding you back. The gov’t takes someone else’s money and spends it, accountability out the window
Incase anyone comes across an ADS
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corner_reflector
The only way the Big three could lose money faster than they are losing it now would be for the gov’t to manage them from Washington.
P.S. The offending word in the moderated comment was a steet address named after one of the signers of the Declaration of Independence. John somethingorother.
Spitzer hits a home run in my book in his first article, Bush should pardon him and O’Bama should dump Larry Summers and give Spitzer the job to run the National Economic Council.
http://www.slate.com/id/2205995/pagenum/all/#p2
#85 – Even crazier they want to tax cars in NY based on weight, not miles driven or price.
You’re already being taxed on miles driven via gas taxes and price via sales taxes… knucklehead.
And SUVs should pay more.
Given that only wealthy folk bought priuses, minis and smartcards
Yes, only the wealthy own $18k Priuses, $13k Smarts, etc.
All the poor have Escalades, Excursions and G-Wagens.
WTF is in the water on LI the impedes any logical thought in your head?
Young Buck
– thanks for the Westfield/Mountainside info – I appreciate it.
93 tosh,
…must be the onions he’s
schtuppingeating…sl
From MarketWatch:
U.S. mortgage foreclosures, delinquencies hit record high
The percentage of U.S. mortgage holders who were behind in their payments soared to a record 6.99% of loans outstanding in the third quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Friday, and foreclosures were also at new highs. Just under 3% of U.S. mortgages were somewhere in the foreclosure process, and MBA Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann said mounting job losses were sure to send that figure higher in coming months. Problem loans in California and Florida accounted for much of the increase, the MBA said. More than 19.5% of all subprime loans were seriously delinquent in the quarter, meaning they were more than 30 days past due.
John I don’t disagree with what you are saying. My point is the taxes are excessive, I don’t really mind paying them if they work to best good
The MTA wants to tax cars something crazy like 500 bucks every time you register a car that is heavy which is crazy. People with kids are forced to have at least one large vehicle. My wife has a 7 passenger 5,000 pound one. That thing is only driven 2,000 miles a year and always BJs, supermarket, carpool or with kids in it. My other car that gets good milage is driven everytime I am not hauling. Taxing a paid off used minivan or SUV that is rarely driven based on weight alone is crazy. I could see maybe a gas guzller tax when new but a $500 a year tax is nuts.
toshiro_mifune Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 9:56 am
#85 – Even crazier they want to tax cars in NY based on weight, not miles driven or price.
You’re already being taxed on miles driven via gas taxes and price via sales taxes… knucklehead.
And SUVs should pay more.
Given that only wealthy folk bought priuses, minis and smartcards
Yes, only the wealthy own $18k Priuses, $13k Smarts, etc.
All the poor have Escalades, Excursions and G-Wagens.
WTF is in the water on LI the impedes any logical thought in your head?
Msnbc reporting that 1 in 10 households with mortgages are delinquent or in foreclosure.
Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) — New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, the former chairman of Goldman, Sachs & Co., said allowing the U.S. automakers to shut down is “crazy” and that outside leadership is needed to turn the companies around.
“We don’t need another Lehman Brothers unintended consequence explosion of this,” Corzine said in an interview today on MSNBC. Markets have been roiled and investors have fled all but the safest securities since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy on Sept. 15.
General Motors Corp., Chrysler LLC and Ford Motor Co. are seeking federal government assistance to help ensure they continue operating. The companies’ chief executives face U.S. House members today as they renew their push for federal aid. Letting the automakers go bankrupt would affect the national economy and hurt people around the country, Corzine said.
The governor, 61, a first-term Democrat, said he favored seeing the companies put into a conservatorship, and bringing in outside management to help them return to profitability. Corzine suggested putting Jack Welch, the former chief executive officer of General Electric Co., in charge of the conservatorship.
Treasury Department’s Neel Kashkari says taxpayers will see return from bank bailout
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081205/meltdown_kashkari.html
bwahahahaha!!!
Dumb stat, tons of people own their own homes. 1 in 10 is just population with mortgages.
grim Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 10:17 am
Msnbc reporting that 1 in 10 households with mortgages are delinquent or in foreclosure.
John – CNBC is laying off some 80 odd people.
There might be a spot opening up for you alongside Kudlow.
KEY POINTS: * The Labor Department said the unemployment rate rose to 6.7 percent last month in the highest reading since 1993, compared with 6.5 percent in October, after widespread losses across the country’s major industry sectors. * November’s job losses were the steepest since December 1974, when 602,000 jobs were shed. * analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a reduction of 340,000 jobs. * October’s job losses were revised to show a cut of 320,000, previously reported as a 240,000 loss, while September’s losses were revised to a loss of 403,000 from down 284,00.
For some reason everybody talks about 200K difference between expected and actual, but there is another 600lb gorilla is the room – September and october numbers were revised down by almost 300K as well…
these are some scary numbers here…
#102 John: That is exactly what it said 1 in 10 households WITH mtgs are delinquent or in forclosure.
Reading comphrension.
John Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 10:18 am
Dumb stat, tons of people own their own homes. 1 in 10 is just population with mortgages.
John – less than 50% do not have mortgages on their house, and % of motrgage equity is less than 50%!!!!!!!!
From June 5, 2008 :
Homeowners’ portion of equity slipped to 46.2 percent in the first quarter from a revised 47.5 percent in the previous quarter. That was the fifth quarter in a row below the 50 percent mark, the Federal Reserve said Thursday.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/06/05/business/NA-FIN-US-Home-Equity.php
With RE prices crushing right now, I woud expect this number to drop below 40% by now.
So here you go – at least 60% have mortgages or HELOCS. I would expect this number to be between to 80%-90% as not all equity owned outright.
From Bloomberg:
Mortgage Delinquencies, Foreclosure Rise to Record in Recession
One in 10 Americans fell behind on their mortgage payments or were in foreclosure during the third quarter as the world’s largest economy shed jobs and real estate prices tumbled.
The share of mortgages 30 days or more overdue rose to a seasonally adjusted 6.99 percent while loans already in foreclosure rose to 2.97 percent, both all-time highs in a survey that goes back 29 years, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a report today. The gain in delinquencies was driven by an increase of loans with payments 90 days or more overdue.
I know, but what % of people have mortgages. Given a stat of a part of pop is weird. Like saying 8% of people with dentures were laid off in last six month.s
So john – if 80% have mortgages/HELOSA and 1 i 10 default – you will have 1 in 13 of total default… Is it really that much better that 1:10???
so if only half the people have mortgages only 1 in 20 homeowners are in trouble. Which is only 5% of homeowners.
Donny Deutch’s show on CNBC is getting axed. There is an opening spot for someone.
John – If equity at 47% it means that AT LEAST 53% have mortgages/HELOCS. (as 53% of home value is debt)
IS it not true?? Unless you would claim that Only people with very expensive homes ahev mortgages and people with cheaper ones do not.
I assume even distribution.
Recent NJMLS Bergen County Comp Killers!
WESTWOOD, 584 LAFAYETTE AVE
Sold: $868,000 4/16/2007
Sold: $845,500 11/14/2008
RUTHERFORD, 319 ORIENT WAY
SOLD: $385,000 11/30/2006
SOLD: $280,000 12/3/2008
RIVER VALE, 853 ZIBOLD CT
SOLD: $864,000 8/28/2006
SOLD: $800,000 12/4/2008
RIVER VALE, 560 BROOK AVE
SOLD: $739,000 12/12/2002
SOLD: $575,000 11/26/2008
ORADELL, 275 CAMDEN ST
SOLD: $465,000 9/14/2006
SOLD: $448,000 11/24/2008
NEW MILFORD, 310 NEUMAIER DR
SOLD: $470,000 1/12/2005
SOLD: $510,000 5/24/2006
SOLD: $450,000 12/2/2008
NEW MILFORD, 180 BOULEVARD
SOLD: $296,000 4/9/2004
SOLD: $260,000 11/28/2008
MAHWAH, 9 PENNA CT
SOLD: $950,000 10/10/2002
SOLD: $950,000 12/2/2008
HO-HO-KUS, 183 LAKEWOOD AVE
SOLD: $790,000 4/4/2006
SOLD: $655,000 12/3/2008
HILLSDALE, 30 PALM ST
SOLD: $420,000 9/1/2005
SOLD: $395,000 11/21/2008
FAIR LAWN, 13-36 JEROME PL
SOLD: $520,000 7/18/2006
SOLD: $475,000 11/3/2008
ENGLEWOOD, 256 LIBERTY RD
SOLD: $400,000 11/16/2005
SOLD: $247,500 11/19/2008
ENGLEWOOD, 230 WARREN ST
SOLD: $179,900 3/15/2002
SOLD: $330,000 10/15/2005
SOLD: $174,123 11/17/2008
BERGENFIELD, 56 SEMINARY ST
SOLD: $392,000 7/6/2006
SOLD: $280,000 8/25/2008
Where I live no one under 30 has a mortgage and no one over 60 has a mortgage. So those folks 30-60 need to cowboy up and pay them darn things.
I’ve been watching Hudson county pretty closely. Activity has slowed down dramatically (as far as number of sales) and inventory has been climbing quickly. It seems that properties priced above $600k (which is a large chunk of condos in the Waterfront areas of JC / Hoboken) are really struggling. I would guess that the large numbers of Wall Street/finance workers that traditionally are purchasing in the $600k+ range in Hoboken / JC are part of the problem with sales as I’m sure quite a few are nervous about employment prospects for the future.
Here are some interesting stats on a few listings I pulled in this price range in Hoboken:
Hoboken Real Estate Stats
1) MLS #: 80012717; 65 Jefferson Street, #5. Sold 10/28/05: $615,000; Presently Listed at $549,000.
2) MLS #: 800151101: 510 Monroe, #202. Sold 9/20/04: $530,000; Presently Listed at $574,900
3) MLS #: 80011567: 700 1st, #3Q. Sold 10/06: $540,000; Presently Listed at $579,000
4) MLS #: 80015245: 315 Monroe, #4. Sold 12/07: $625,000; Presently Listed at $625,000
5) MLS #: 80014036: 411 Washington, #2. Sold 7/05: $619,000; Presently Listed at $645,000
6) MLS #: 80015078: 163-165 Newark, #3A. Sold 3/05: $721,500; Presently Listed at $649,000
7) MLS #: 80015042: 109 Jackson, #4C. Sold 10/04: $715,000; Presently Listed at $700,000
8) MLS #: 80014356: 58 Willow Court. Sold 3/03: $730,000; Presently Listed at $735,000
9) MLS #: 80007123: 131 Jackson, #A. Sold 1/06: $899,900; Presently Listed at $769,000
10) MLS#: 80013926: 233 Washington, #3. Sold 2/06: $1,200,000. Presently Listed at $989,000
On a lot of these resales, if they were purchased in the last 12 to 24 months, it looks like there’s been a pretty decent sized drop in purchase price vs. listing price in today’s market. In some cases, some units are even struggling to hold their 2003 & 2004 Values (#7 & #8 for example). #10 definetly looks like it’s taking a beating as it was purchased in 2006 for $1.2mm and is presently on the market at $989,000. #10 is an awesome location (on Washington, very close to Path, upgrades, large–over 2,100 sq. feet, etc.) and a unit like this normally would sell quickly, especially at a $470 per foot price point in Hoboken.
The key point are that these examples are all LISTINGS and still haven’t managed to sell, so the prospect of further price reductions are strong….The next 6+ months will tell a lot in the JC/Hoboken areas.
Grim,
Comp Killers in moderation
Boy, the way Glenn Miller played. Songs that made the Hit Parade.
Guys like us, we had it made. Those were the days.
Didn’t need no welfare state. Everybody pulled his weight.
Gee, our old LaSalle ran great. Those were the days.
And you know who you were then. Girls were girls and men were men.
Mister, we could use a man like Herbert Hoover again.
People seemed to be content. Fifty dollars paid the rent.
Freaks were in a circus tent. Those were the days.
Take a little Sunday spin, go to watch the Dodgers win.
Have yourself a dandy day that cost you under a fin.
Hair was short and skirts were long. Kate Smith really sold a song.
I don’t know just what went wrong. Those Were The Days.
wait – are you saing that 1:20 FK is not a seious issue – nationwide??? Are you insane?!
Right now the rate is at 1:360 or something close to this number and we have
huge troubles…..
Where I live no one under 30 has a mortgage and no one over 60 has a mortgage. So those folks 30-60 need to cowboy up and pay them darn things.
ARE YOU SURE??? can I have you zip-code and I will find you a person under 30 with mortgage, and a person over 60 with HELOC.
#98 – The MTA wants to tax cars something crazy like 500 bucks every time you register a car that is heavy which is crazy
There’s nothing crazy about it. Heavier vehicles cause more damage to the roads making them more costly to maitain…
People with kids are forced to have at least one large vehicle.
Really? Forced? The hospitals won’t let them leave unless they have an Expedition? Is it physically impossible to fit the kids of today into a Civic/Accord/Camry/Malibu? I mean, I know they’re all fatter, but that fat?
Ohh, I see what you mean with this. All your neighbors have SUVs and you need to be part of the pack. That’s a little different then isn’t it?
My wife has a 7 passenger 5,000 pound one. That thing is only driven 2,000 miles a year and always BJs, supermarket, carpool or with kids in it.
So you have 6 kids? That might explain your insanity… Or are you just hauling around 2 kids in some completely oversized POS, hogging the road and parking and now complaining that somebody wants to tax you accordingly.?
2K a year? Do you even need the thing? You couldn’t do it in a Passat Wagon? That’s right, the whole ‘pack’ thing again. Plus a station wagon would force you to admit you’re just a middle-aged guy with kids and not that adventurous dare-devil we all know marketing tells us SUV owners are.
I could see maybe a gas guzller tax when new but a $500 a year tax is nuts.
But John, aren’t all of your neighbors $100k a year cops with $100k a year teacher wives? Will they even notice this?
Poor poor John.
Well the few people I know who are still getting a bonus this year plan on knocking out parts of their mortgage in case they get laid off. That should help!! Banks will like getting principal back early.
John (113)-
Which side of Jupiter is that? For an accountant, you really talk out your ass.
“Where I live no one under 30 has a mortgage and no one over 60 has a mortgage.”
Re 119, since you are impotent you don’t need a lot of space in your car for kids. My wife car pools with other people for stuff like girlscouts, soccer CCD etc. With our three kids in the car and plus other people kids she actually often has five kids in the back seat plus soccer gear. Plus I had a toyota try taking five people, a baby carriage a diaper bag to BJs to do shopping. Plus the inlaws are old and crickey and I drive them to family parties which is 7 people. My wagon just got totaled and it could hold seven but it could not handle the weight so well. I have a big thing up on the roof for luggage and once you shove 7 people in and put a few suitcases on top the thing would not move. I have never driven that thing to work or by myself. The miles are low cause it is a gas guzzler but when it goes out it is being use. Plus it gets 18 mpg on highway. That is the equivalent of 36 in a smaller car where I would need to take two cars. The Chevy Surbaban is actually one of the highest MPG per passenger cars on the road, it seats up to nine passengers. You would need three four passenger cars to move the people you can fit in one surbaban.
Banks will like getting principal back early.
John,
Please stop talking out of your ass. Large scale prepayments would be a huge problem for the industry, given the current interest rate environment.
#121 clot: The uglier things get, the more convoluted John’s thought process appears to be.
3. DL Says: “Did some searches on the PA side. Amazed at the number of properties where asking price is at or above 2005/6 last sale.”
i’m surprised at that. I’m near West Windsor, central NJ, prices here have come down 25-30% in the same time period. Maybe this dislocation shows an exodus from the garden state.
Clotpoll Says:
Housing on LI is so expensive no one under 30 can afford a house, in fact most kids live at home up to 30 or share a rental with friends. Anyone 60 and up bought their house so long ago it is paid off or the mortgage was so small it was an annoyance so they just paid it off. My mother paid off her mortgage ten years early as it was $160 a month at 8% and she could not write it off anyhow. I am getting rid of mine pretty soon too as it is only a 6K tax deduction and selling is always easier when you have clean title. Back in 1992 when I bought my coop for 27K and the bank made me put down 7K I also paid if off early. The issue most banks refuse to refinance mortgages under 100K, so the 1979 to 1998 buyers with under 100K and a high rate often just pay off the remaining balance as they can’t refinance and their is hardly any tax deduction anyhow.
December 5th, 2008 at 10:38 am
John (113)-
Which side of Jupiter is that? For an accountant, you really talk out your ass.
“Where I live no one under 30 has a mortgage and no one over 60 has a mortgage.”
“Where I live no one under 30 has a mortgage and no one over 60 has a mortgage.”
Greystone?
John – here is an example of Island Park in Nassau county, there are 1,175 homes with mortgages and only 616 without one.
What to know how many have a HELOC? 143 home equity loans and 86 Second mortgage loans.
The data is very easy to find………… :) and you don’t need a slide rule.
I am going for Sushi Lunch again today, the place I eat is run by Japanese expats who left in the 80s when things were good, only place I ever see Japanese business men eat so I know I am not getting fake Unagi or the fake Roe.
One of these days I may even buy a bottle of that expensive Sake just to see if I can drink the whole thing like the Japanese business men do and make it back to work without puking.
I am going for Sushi again today, the place I eat is run by Japanese expats who left in the 80s when things were good, only place I ever see Japanese business men eat so I know I am not getting fake Unagi or the fake Roe.
One of these days I may even buy a bottle of that expensive Sake just to see if I can drink the whole thing like the Japanese bussiness men do and make it back to work without puking.
#126 – since you are impotent you don’t need a lot of space in your car for kids
That’s right kid. Rather than deal with any of the points make pe**s jokes.
As for the rest of your post, so your basically running a small bus service and don’t want to be taxed accordingly?
This SUV which you desperately need, as you routinely pack in 7 people, but only drive 2k a year.
@ Clotpoll
Was doing a little prelim on the weekly report. Came across 57 Barton Hollow again. Remember – the agent listed it as Flemington rather than Raritan?
Well, the listing was pulled and redone. Including another 30K haircut…
OLP: 02/21/06 $999,000
OLP: 12/01/08 $599,000
Excuse me, Mr. Clotpoll, did you order the 40% reduction off peak…? LOL
Can we get Re101 on that open CNBC slot? I would watch that every day just for kicks!!!!
I know we have reached new levels of stupid when ‘cops and teachers’ are seen by others as fat cats.
Lets see public school teachers make 300% of parchoial school teaches and the education stinks. NYC Cops and for the most part NYC teachers earn their pay, but rich surburb towns where donut eating is the riskist part of the three day workweek and tenured teachers and admin who do hardly any work at close to 200K a year are fat cats.
This is just a crisis of confidence the fundementals are strong. RE 101 is a true american.
Overheard a convo the other day at the bar….
Know all of those offers from credit card companies for 0% or 2.99% balance transfers with the checks. This guy was suggesting to take those checks and write yourself a check (cash advance) for the max amount and save it for a rainy day. Depending on where you park it, the interest you earn would come close to covering the minimum payment. And to do this before the credit card companies start lowering credit limits like they have done with HELOCs.
I had to inject myself into the convo. My first thought was why do it? To me it like people lending their SSN for a few thousand dollars so that someone can get a house. No upside for a sane person. Very few people have the discipline to do it. By taking out the max, you are destroying your credit. Maybe not destroying but definitely lowers your FICO score it.
His response….if I get laid off tomorrow I will have that cash ready at a low interest rate. I don’t plan on buying anything (owns a house and car) so I don’t need credit (good FICO).
From the DealBreaker:
Layoffs Watch ’08: CNBC
I know this is going to upset you, girls, so I’ll just put it out there and we’ll move on right quick. 55 employees were shown the door yesterday in Englewood Cliffs
HO-HO-KUS, 183 LAKEWOOD AVE
SOLD: $790,000 4/4/2006
SOLD: $655,000 12/3/2008
Can’t be, Hohokus is PRIME!
Prime TRAIN town at that!
[7] cooper,
FWIW, I never found that the PA market ran up like NY/NJ did. Less rise, less fall. I was lucky that I got out at peak, but even so, I did not make a ton of money on my sale as prices had run up considerably from 1999 to 2003 (when I bought) and did not run up that much more after 2003. Further, there were a lot of condo projects that may have tanked, but even if they didn’t, there isn’t much more room to build in CC, so values may well hold up there.
John,
I’m glad that someone finally recognizes my patriotism. Nowadays, it takes a real american to recognize another real american. I find it somewhat interesting how real americans like bi, you and I are met with venomous attacks here, while radical elements like Pat, Clotpoll and Kettle are slapped on the back like old friends and weirdos like 3corncob are greated with open arms. I really don’t understand it.
Recently, Clotpoll has edged out Pat on my list for being the worst person here. The man is an unrepentant radical along the lines of Bill Ayers. I know he’s done SOMETHING inimical to the well being of our great nation. He’s a deadender, so a re-education camp will not work. A pre-emptive detention is in order along with a full frontal lobotomy.
John Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 11:13 am
This is just a crisis of confidence the fundementals are strong. RE 101 is a true american.
hey Al
from our discussion yesterday regarding finance and oil
Dec 4 (Reuters) – The growing financial crisis and plunging energy prices have forced companies to scale back spending and delay projects, with expensive ventures in the Canadian oil sands hardest hit.
Below is a list of energy projects that have been delayed or scaled back in recent months, as well as other related news.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN0441115020081204
[136] Essex,
This isn’t a new phenomenon, and it is coming to light only because of the tax proposals being floated, and the effect of the economy.
As a cop brat myself, I know what they can rake in, and it is not hard for cops to earn 6 figures. Better pay for cops was long justified because of the dangers of the job, and the fact that underpaid cops revert to corruption (at least more readily). When O was pushing his policy for soaking the “rich”, I was out arguing why this would soak cops and nurses. Folks thought I was nuts, but we now see that two “para-professionals” like a cop with seniority and rank (say a sgt. or lt.) and a nurse with seniority and rank (senior RN/charge nurse, or NP) will come under the new definition of “rich” because they have benefitted from lucrative contracts for cops, and a shortage of nurses.
For a long time, and typically still, it wasn’t unusual for attorneys deposing a cop or nurse to be making far less than the witness.
God, I can only hope that O’s definition of rich is based on taxable income, not gross or even AGI. If not, folks in NY/NJ are gonna get boned by the guy they voted for.
rant off
John has a point. I live in Sussex County (where houses are relatively cheap compared to the rest of North Jersey) and I hardly know anyone under 30 with a mortgage. Quite frankly it’s too expensive and since everyone now blows all of their money on latest greatest cars/gadgets/nonsense they end up living in their parents basement.
[144]
Re,
While I agree with you more than some on this board (but not always, and I decline to adopt your style, sorry), if you consider Clot a radical, you haven’t been paying much attention.
I find Clot further to the right than many on this board. In fact, I would go so far as to say he/she is a closet libertarian.
My $0.02.
[123] Tosh,
In this state, I want a decent amount of steel around the little nom. And in my short tenure here, we have already been nailed by one semi (at slow speed, thank god) with her and a friend in the car.
I would hate to think what the result would have been if it were my corolla, and the hit was a foot or so forward.
So, yes, a tax on car weight, coupled with the indrect weight tax imposed by gas taxes, penalizes folks for having children and wanting to keep them safe.
From the NY Times:
Workers Give Up
How bad was today’s jobs report? The unemployment rate rose to 6.7 percent, its highest level since 1993 — and that understated the weakness in the labor market.
According to the Labor Department, the number of unemployed workers rose by 251,000 in November. But the number of people who were outside of the labor force — that is, neither working nor looking for work — rose by much more: 637,000. These people aren’t counted as unemployed in the government’s statistics, because they are not looking for work. Many of them, presumably, have stopped looking for work because they didn’t think they could find a good job.
If you take a broader measure — one that tries to account for them — you see a darker picture of the labor market. The share of all men ages 16 and over who are working is now at its lowest level since the government began keeping statistics in the 1940s. The share of women with jobs has fallen almost two percentage points from the peak it reached in 2000; at no other point in the past 50 years has the share of employed women has fallen so much from its peak.
Even among those who still have jobs — who, of course, make up a huge majority of the population — the news wasn’t good. The number of people working a part-time job because they couldn’t find a full-time job rose by 621,000 last month. These people count as employed, but obviously many of them are struggling.
[149] Comrade Nom Deplume
In Europe the cars are smaller (roads for that matter)so in case you get into an accident with a another car, it will more than likely be smaller, so the damage is not so great. Sure you safe gas but you get hit by one of the large SUVs, you are done. Thats the reason why buying a SMART car isn’t so smart.
plume (148)-
Libertarians are wusses. I’m an anarchist.
#138 John:the fundementals are strong.
If you are not being sarcastic, please inform the board which fundamentals are strong.
Thank You, the Clotpol and Kettle are clearly communists. Our great country america was founded on good old horse trading principals where two mem met and did a transaction over a handshake and did a deal via handshake and a mans honor, if you got beat in a deal you sucked it up. Clot Pol and Kettle are pro-realtors who like to insert themselves in the middle of a transaction and pick your pocket of 6% and then bring in their home inspectors, mortgage brokers and lawyers to pick the other pocket, finally they get uncle sam to finance the madness with fannie and freddie taxpaper supported loans. We should bring bank the gallows and hang every member of the NAR or ship them back to russia where they belong. The one saving grace is realtors really want me to live a good life and go to heaven, cause at least in heaven you can be assured you won’t run into any real estate agents.
reinvestor101 Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 11:33 am
John,
I’m glad that someone finally recognizes my patriotism. Nowadays, it takes a real american to recognize another real american. I find it somewhat interesting how real americans like bi, you and I are met with venomous attacks here, while radical elements like Pat, Clotpoll and Kettle are slapped on the back like old friends and weirdos like 3corncob are greated with open arms. I really don’t understand it.
Recently, Clotpoll has edged out Pat on my list for being the worst person here. The man is an unrepentant radical along the lines of Bill Ayers. I know he’s done SOMETHING inimical to the well being of our great nation. He’s a deadender, so a re-education camp will not work. A pre-emptive detention is in order along with a full frontal lobotomy.
Clott,
if we are talking about real anarchy and not teen angst or 20th century political movements then its not a bad idea. There are historical examples of an anarchist society working around the world,such as Iceland, Scotland and others. The only problem is they will most likely never be an economic power house and hence cannot generally compete against capitalism and the like.
#144 re@ssvise: Please get help, if not for you than for your spouse.
Please I am truly worried about you. Everyday on this board no matter what the topic all you are fixated on is the use of corncobs and @ssvises.
Clot,
Do you not know what you want, but know how to get it? This is apparently the test to see if you may be an anarchist. I heard it on my radio.
Hey guys,
I’m back from a trip to New Orleans. The place has recovered some but it is still in shambles. Cabbie said that pre Katrina it had 500,000 people and now it has 275,000 and all the surrounding suburbs are wasted.
Been reading last night and today to catch up on some things. Just want to make a couple points and observations.
Know all of those offers from credit card companies for 0% or 2.99% balance transfers with the checks. This guy was suggesting to take those checks and write yourself a check (cash advance) for the max amount and save it for a rainy day.
This wont work because cash advances are charged at a near maximum rate of around 25%. This is only effective for balance transfers and new purchases. They often come with stipulation to make at least 1 purchase per year and fine print makes it impossible to apply payments to higher interest rates while intro rate is in effect.
John,
1-2 millisecond transmission is possible but it is very misleading (yesterday conversation). Latency, the measure of the time it takes to transmit bits from one place to the next, is a combination of two major factors. The time to put the bits on the wire, or transmission speed, and the time it takes to transmit the information to you, or propogation time. A service with high data rates may advertise 1-2 ms speeds but they are certainly only considering the transmission speed and not the propogation time. For example a 9600 baud modem has a much higher transmission time then a STS-1, so much so that it even dwarfs the propogation time. A STS-1 transmission time is much lower and on the order of the propogation time.
The propogation time differs depending on which medium you are using. Mediums such as air and water (sound) have worse propogation rates then aluminum and copper. The best propogation rates are obtained through very costly glass fiber. All propogation rates are limited by the speed of light, a barrier that was noticed some time ago.
John,
the Clotpol and Kettle are clearly communists. Our great country america was founded on good old horse trading principals where two mem met and did a transaction over a handshake and did a deal via handshake and a mans honor, if you got beat in a deal you sucked it up. Clot Pol and Kettle are pro-realtors who like to insert themselves in the middle of a transaction and pick your pocket of 6%
Have you read any of my posts???? Lets see, both clot and I think that no one should be bailout and that we should let ALL of banks, auto makers, and everyone else fail. We also both continually lament the lack of personal responsibility.
Perhaps this will help you better understand our points of view in the future
http://tinyurl.com/3qq8e
It interesting that the traits you ascribe to clot and i fit you and RE101 almost perfectly….
#159 kettle:It interesting that the traits you ascribe to clot and i fit you and RE101 almost perfectly….
That is because those 2 are only tough guys when things are going their way.
A few weeks ago a monster sized Lexus SUV t-boned my wagon on the passenger side. The crazy russin women who was in a rush totaled my car but I was fine. She nailed me at a good 40 mph no brakes or horn, guess she was on her cell phone or something. No kids in car. Now a sable wagon held up, but a smart car or mini would have been toast. That lady had a 5,000 pound vehicle and her bumper nailed me around my door handle/mirror as her vehicle was higher, if my car was lower she would have nalied me above the door and flipped me. The little cars are cute but with women drivers on cell phones with screaming kids in back running late to pick up people in 5,000 pound trucks all over the place little cars are like knats on the windshielf.
who here wanted to move out west?
make sure you have ample water rights
Climate change, drought to strain Colorado River
SALT LAKE CITY – Seven Western states will face more water shortages in the years ahead as climate change exacerbates the strains drought and a growing population have put on the Colorado River, scientists say.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081205/ap_on_sc/colorado_river;_ylt=Av73bh1Zcg_66nLx3ymN_Etpl88F
Kettle we are investing in america by loaning money to our banks and car companies. It is not a bail out. It is called capitalism. I know draft dodging ex hippies like you driving your priuses and smoking weed all day while you visit your comunes can’t appreciate a hard days work.
November Union County info from GSMLS
Year #Active ActiveLP #UC #Sold AvgSP AvgDOM
2001 1655 $296,450 354 337 $259,124 50
2002 1781 $365,335 298 320 $319,735 55
2003 1961 $381,828 353 360 $357,551 62
2004 2066 $424,122 409 387 $388,627 57
2005 2491 $499,377 364 372 $428,185 55
2006 3417 $498,050 307 324 $451,382 77
2007 3843 $466,632 216 273 $452,365 74
2008 3536 $437,457 198 181 $410,529 97
Bush confident economy will return to strength
john,
your a funny guy. Did you purchase that “social” black box you seem to be using from Bi?
anyone read denninger’s latest post?
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/674-Aw-Crap-Told-You-So-Again.html
#159 kettle:It interesting that the traits you ascribe to clot and i fit you and RE101 almost perfectly….
This is the psychological defense mechanism called “projection”…
RE: #161
I thought the lower [to the ground] the point of impact the more likely that the absorbing vehicle is likely to roll. Meaning if her bumper was above your door line, she would have taken your head but your fine chariot would not have rolled.
November Union County info from GSMLS
Inventory high
Median list price down
Sales down
Contracts down
Median sale price down
DOM high
[158] Nicholas
You could easily take a cash advance on one credit card and then do a balnce transfer to another at the low interest rate. I still wouldn’t do it either but it interesting to hear.
Bullspit. The only reason either of you don’t want a bailout relates to your selfish desire to see a collapse so you can get everything on the cheap. You terrorists infiltrated the real estate industy merely to upend the real estate markets and cause all sorts of problems so you could steal from people like me.
I can’t think of anything more lowdown and dirty. John is right. Both of you guys need to be severly sanctioned, but hanging is too good for you. Both of you should be forced to take 125% LTV mortgage to buy a damn house right now.
kettle1 Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Have you read any of my posts???? Lets see, both clot and I think that no one should be bailout and that we should let ALL of banks, auto makers, and everyone else fail. We also both continually lament the lack of personal responsibility.
Perhaps this will help you better understand our points of view in the future
http://tinyurl.com/3qq8e
It interesting that the traits you ascribe to clot and i fit you and RE101 almost perfectly….
FDIC’s Bair Warns Investors Fighting Loan Changes
Investors in mortgage securities who are challenging home-loan modification programs aimed at avoiding foreclosures could provoke a “backlash” from Congress, the head of the FDIC said Thursday.
http://www.komonews.com/news/business/35605674.html
Young Buck, Grim
Thanks for the Union County info.
Its on the road to affordability…
The easiest and cheapest thing to do is take a new credit card with a 0% transaction fee and a 0% interest rate to at least the end of 2009, and use it to balance transfer off of your main charge card. So the act of creating the loan is completely costless.
Example:
(1) Main charge card is used for $5,000 of charging a month.
(2) Obtain new 0%/0% card with $35,000 line.
(3) Balance transfer $20,000 from your main charge card, so 0%/0% card is only drawn 55% or so.
(4) Main charge card will have credit balance of $20,000CR, which can be used up in 4 months.
(5) Alternatively, call the main charge card and say that you accidently balance transfer to this account, and could they please cut you a check for $20,000. They will be pissed, but they will do it. It might take 2-4 weeks. Take check and invest/deposit in bank.
My brother knows an owner of a Department store, said retail sales were off by 16% on Black Friday over sales 1 year ago. He doesn’t like the outlook. These numbers were reflected accurately in the retail numbers reported.
My office mate just let me know that Chrysler phoned his brother the Sunday after Thanksgiving and let him know that it wouldn’t be necessary to come to work because he was fired. He does design work for automobiles.
My company is both simultaneously hiring and firing. They are hiring in our Research division (masters and PhD level) and letting grunts go. I think that they might be trying to capture talent in the trumult. We are based in NJ.
My sister, age 35, is one of the people who took out huge loans in 2006 and then HELOC’ed the crap out of the rest of it. They are on the hook for 1.1 million in loans (3 properties) and they make 250k per year. They are sweating bullets right now because they are paying nearly the minimum on their three option ARMs. Two houses around their main property, 650,000$, just entered forclosure.
I had a conversation with her about dealing with her kids, her son wanted a PS3 for christmas, and for the first time in his life they told him “No, your not getting that for Christmas. No, you cannot spend your own money to buy it”. He is 11. They were horrified that he might flip out but instead she said he “cried for about 2 hours and then he moved on and hasn’t asked since.”
Can someone give me the address for this listing? Thanks MLS ID #2508732
You people are nice cross section of a freakish lot of psychos……opinions?
http://www.proshares.com/funds/tbt.html
What happens if we get hyperinflation? Currently overpriced POSs and mortgages would turn out to be a good deal, after all. If a Starbucks barista makes $300K/year, then the monthly $4k mortgage does not sound that bad anymore..
Taxes would also go through the roof, even if the tax rates remains the same as everybody would be “rich”.
As usual, the responsible people would be punished and irresponsible people rewarded.
Please don’t get me started on you, 3corncob. It was your fixation with being a cheapskate that led you astray. It was your decision to forego what most consider to be normal sanitary practices that led to an unnatural relationship with a damn vegetable. Sure, it probably started innocently enough but ultimately led to the current situation with you wanting to marry your corncob.
I used to let my kids watch Veggie Tales, but no longer allow it as you’ve turned an innocent kid’s show into an X rated affair.
You ought to be ashamed of yourself.
3b says: December 5th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
#144 re@ssvise: Please get help, if not for you than for your spouse.
Please I am truly worried about you. Everyday on this board no matter what the topic all you are fixated on is the use of corncobs and @ssvises.
Make it a double…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ab3M4fxCVsoY&refer=us
Some Bailout Holding Down $9B
Stock intended to eventually earn taxpayers a profit as part of the Bush administration’s massive bank bailout has lost a third of its value — about $9 billion — in barely one month….shares in virtually every bank that received federal money have remained below the prices the government negotiated.
“We’re not day traders, and we’re not looking for a return tomorrow” said Neel Kashkari, the director of Treasury’s Office of Financial Stability, which oversees the $700 billion financial rescue fund. “Over time, we believe the taxpayers will be protected and have a return on their investment.”
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D94SM5HO0.htm
You could easily take a cash advance on one credit card and then do a balnce transfer to another at the low interest rate. I still wouldn’t do it either but it interesting to hear.
They often limit your ability to take cash advances to 30% of the available balance.
chifi has the right idea on how to bilk the money out of them. I have a spreadsheet that I open up every time I get one of these new offers and try to determine the amount of money that I could make from borrowing strait-out cash. It rarely pays off and when it does it requires hours of work to obtain only scant few dollars. Opportunity cost due to lost time just doesn’t pay out. It would be better to spend my time reading the njrereport.
BB,
MLS # 2508732 – 40 Oakwood
#154 Strawman,
I’ll call this the post were you “Jumped the Shark”
As for the bailout, I think you need to look at the diference between a loan and a gift. I think it goes something like a loan is “money temporarily held for interest” vs “something voluntarily transferred by one person to another without compensation”.
At no point have I seen the terms of repayment details. With AIG, if you own 80% of a bag of $h1t, it still a big bag of $h1t.
late entry for dumbest post of the year on this blog
lol
lol
bi, you are clueless
maybe buying some gold, after all, is a good idea (to protect against hyperinflation), and then transporting it out of country to some free-market economy. I’m having a business trip to Switzerland next week, maybe I should check opening a safe deposit box protected by Swiss banking laws (of course, using non-US passport so irs-gestapo can’t trace it). If I get caught, I can claim “Rangel” defense.
I used to let my kids watch Veggie Tales
I had to look up what this was. WTF?
#179 jamil:As usual, the responsible people would be punished and irresponsible people rewarded.
You are right. And that si what America has become today, a society that is rewarding the irresponsible, and punishing the responsible.
And the many of us on this board who are opposed to this, are labeled by some on this board,as un-American, unpatriotic, and even ironically as communists.
Jamil,
You should just wear overly large gold chains around your neck and then accidentally forget to declare it.
http://www.dyers.org/images/200805/mr-t-gold-chains-sparkling.gif
From HousingWire:
Quote of the week
“People freak out about high food and gas prices, but high home prices are good? It doesn’t make sense. In the long run, prices will be in line with people’s incomes.” — Christopher Thornberg, economist with Beacon Economics
Yes, that’s right Veggie Tales is an innocent cartoon show about vegetables that 3corncob has absolutely ruined with his “activities”.
The man needs to go on a list of people not allowed to be within 10 feet of a damn vegetable stand.
toshiro_mifune Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
I used to let my kids watch Veggie Tales
I had to look up what this was. WTF?
#180recorncob: You poor troubled soul, it was you that first introduced the board about your use of corncobs, when I called you out on it, you projected it on to me.
More recently you have also informed the board about your use of vises, on that same area of your anatomy. Please get help if not for you, than for your families sake.
Dance Of The Cucumber lyrics
From Episode 4–Rack, Shack, and Benny
Narrator: “Larry will be performing the traditional Argentinian ballad,
‘The Dance of the Cucumber,’ in it’s original Spanish. Bob the Tomato
will translate.”
Larry: “Miren al pepino”
Bob: “Watch the cucumber”
Larry: “miren como se mueve”
Bob: “see how he moves”
Larry: “como un leon”
Bob: “like a lion”
Larry: “tras un raton.”
Bob: “chasing a mouse.”
Larry: “Miren al pepino”
Bob: “Watch the cucumber”
Larry: “sus suaves movimientos”
Bob: “Oh, how smooth his motion”
Larry: “tal como mantequilla”
Bob: “like butter”
Larry: “en un chango pelon.”
Bob: “on a … bald monkey.”
Larry: “Miren al pepino”
Bob: “Look at the cucumber”
Larry: “los vegetales”
Bob: “all the vegetables”
Larry: “envidian a su amigo”
Bob: “envy their friend”
Larry: “como el quieren bialar”
Bob: “wishing to dance as he”
Larry: “Pepino bailarin, pepino bailarin, pepino bailarin”
Bob: “Dancing cucumber, dancing cucumber, dancing cucumber”
Larry: “Baila, baila, ya!”
Bob: “Dance, dance, yeah!”
Larry: “Miren al tomate”
Bob: “Look at the tomato”
Larry: “no es triste?”
Bob: “Isn’t it sad?”
Larry: “El no puede bailar.”
Bob: “He can’t dance.”
Larry: “!Pobre tomate!”
Bob: “Poor tomato!”
Larry: “El deberia poder bailar”
Bob: “He wishes he could dance”
Larry: “Como el pepino”
Bob: “like the cucumber”
Larry: “libre y suavemente.”
Bob: “free and smooth.”
Larry: “Pero el no puede danzar.”
Bob: “But he can’t … Okay! Stop the music! What do ya mean I can’t
dance? I can dance! What about Uncle Louie’s polka party? Didn’t you see
me dancing at Uncle Louie’s polka party?”
Larry: “No comprendo.”
Bob: “No comprendo? I’ll show you ‘No comprendo’!”
Jr.: “Mom! Dad! Look over here! Get a picture of me next to the cucumber
in authentic Argentinian garb!”
Dad: “Okay, Junior. But we’d better hurry–I think the dwarves have your
mother confused with someone else! Say ‘Peas!'”
All: “Peas!”
Larry: “Escuchen el pepino”
Bob: “Listen to the cucumber”
Larry: “oigan su voz fuerte”
Bob: “hear his strong voice”
Larry: “como un leon”
Bob: “like a lion”
Larry: “listo a devorar.”
Bob: “about to eat.”
Larry: “Escuchen al pepino”
Bob: “Listen to the cucubmer”
Larry: “que dulce as su canto”
Bob: “oh how sweet his voice”
Larry: “la voz de su garganta perece un triar.”
Bob: “the breath from his throat is like a chorus of little birdies.”
Larry: “Escuchen al pepino”
Bob: “Listen to the cucumber”
Larry: “los vegetales”
Bob: “all the vegetables”
Larry: “envidian a su amigo”
Bob: “envy their friend”
Larry: “como el quieren cantar.”
Bob: “wishing to sing as he.”
Larry: “Pepino cantador, pepino cantador, pepino cantador”
Bob: “Singing cucumber, singing cucumber, singing cucumber”
Larry: “canta, canta, ya!”
Bob: “sing, sing, yeah!”
Larry: “Escuchen al tomate”
Bob: “Listen to the tomato”
Larry: “?No es triste?”
Bob: “Isn’t it sad?”
Larry: “El no puede cantar.”
Bob: “He can’t sing.”
Larry: “Pobre tomate.”
Bob: “Poor tomato.”
Larry: “El deberia poder cantar”
Bob: “He wishes he could sing”
Larry: “fuerte y ducle como el pepino”
Bob: “strong and sweet like the cucumber”
Larry: “Pero no puede …”
Bob: “But he can’t …”
Larry: “!Ni siquiera da un silbido!”
Bob: “Can’t even … whistle! All right! That’s it Senor! Come over here
and let me sing YOU a song!”
Larry: “Adios, amigos!”
Narrator: “This has been Silly Songs With Larry. Tune in next time to
hear Larry sing …”
Larry: “Bob is really angry! I hope he doesn’t catch me! It’s so hard to
run with this sombrero on my head!”
Flip gone flop???
In Pequannock…short sale…$349,000
MLS # 2508732 – 40 Oakwood
Bought in 06, $420,000 (looks like 100% financing, adjustable rate), refinanced in 07 $465,5000 adjustable rate
But hey, it’s recently been remodeled…flood zone also
BTW to make RE 101 proud going to a christmas party tonight at a steak house in the city and plan on ordering the five pound lobster and ever appitizer in the joint. Just doing my part in these tough times. If everyone spent we could solve all our problems. Of course I am a guest so it is not my money, but nevertheless money is being spent by someone.
O.J. Simpson sentenced to at least 15 years in prison
Oh John:
Chrysler Hires Jones Day As Bankruptcy Counsel
Posted by Equity Private, Dec 05, 2008, 12:52pm
No doubt this is timed to dodge the bulk of the hearings.
Bear in mind, of course, that this is not unusual even for a firm that doesn’t eventually end up in Chapter 11, but wants to be prepared for the eventuality.
[Breaking: The Wall Street Journal]
http://dealbreaker.com/2008/12/chrysler-hires-jones-day-as-ba.php
#199 – On the same day as testimony?
Feels like a stunt to me.
GM Covered With Giant Tarp Until It Has Money To Work On Cars Again
http://www.theonion.com/content/news_briefs/gm_covered_with_giant_tarp
DETROIT—The General Motors Corporation announced Monday that it has covered its main production plant with a 500,000-square-foot blue tarp until it can get some revenue together to work on its cars again. “The rear-axle assembly line is all out of whack, and the carburetor department needs a complete rebuild,” CEO G. Richard Wagoner, Jr. said while wiping his hands with an oily rag. “It’s going to be at least a $50 billion job. Godd@mn piece of sh!t American car industry.” According to Wagoner, the automotive giant spent its last $18 on cinder blocks to help secure the tarp.
Grim,
WSJ article says they hired them a few weeks ago. Stunt or no stunt, bailout or no bailout, that’s where all three of them are heading
Re101,
It always makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside when you call me a terrorist. I look forward to each and everyday as an opportunity for read yet another heart warming post about my terroristic ways :)
Can we make Re101 the official NJREReport Pet troll.
“O.J. Simpson sentenced to at least 15 years in prison”
Didn’t some major online magazine accidentally publish “OJ found guilty” headline and article when the verdict was read in the murder trial. They can finally (re)use the headline! Hope they still have it.
Dollar Bill On Floor Sends Wall Street Into Frenzy
http://www.theonion.com/content/news/dollar_bill_on_floor_sends_wall
NEW YORK—Wall Street investors experienced a sudden surge in optimism Tuesday when, after six tumultuous weeks that saw record drops in the Dow Jones industrial average, a $1 bill was spotted on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
The dollar bill was discovered in the northwest corner of the trading floor at approximately 12:05 p.m., and its condition was reported as “crinkled, but real.” Word of the tangible denomination of U.S. currency spread quickly across the NYSE, sending traders into a frenzied rush of shouting, arm-flailing, hooting, hollering, and, according to eyewitnesses, at least one dog pile.
“With credit frozen and the commercial paper market poised on the brink of collapse, this is the most promising development I’ve seen on Wall Street in months,” said floor trader Tim Formato, one of hundreds who gathered around the $1 bill and excitedly called their clients to inform them that they were looking at actual U.S. tender. “I think I touched it.”
…
Re101,
If you really define yourself based on yuor physical possessions like you imply in your posts then i truly feel sorry for you.
My bro works in auto industry for TRW. He was told in beginning of November entire plant will be shut down for the month of December. They typically only get the last two weeks of December off anyway as most of the plants close for those weeks.
The kicker though was if you didn’t have the vacation saved up for the other two weeks you don’t get paid.
#207 kettle:If you really define yourself based on your physical possessions like you imply in your posts then i truly feel sorry for you.
Especially his corncobs and vises, those too are physical possessions.
The state of Maryland just passed legislation that will put State workers on Furlough. I think it works out to 14 days off work for every state employee, something equivalent to a 4% drop in pay per person.
They had proposed the legislation a while back but a few days ago it became real.
I don’t get it… Worst unemployment numbers in 34 years and stocks are pretty much flat? What gives?
Just came from having lunch in a haughty restaurant in Red Bank. The place was packed with business types sipping G&T’s and white wine. I guess it could be a pre-holiday early happy hour but it sure didn’t feel like a recession was on.
Hey guys,
I’m in Vegas and this town is not what it used to be. You see for sale signs at the Paris up to 70% off.
I was able to buy a cool toy gift for my brother for 80% off and no txes since I paid in cash.
Construction of condo’s is holted on the strip. It’s an eye sore for me to look at a half finished building with only a few security gurds in front and no one working.
It’s gonna be interesting and there will be some opportunities in a couple of years as everyone is broke out here.
cheers
Re: Chrysler hiring bankruptcy advisor. Isn’t this a little tricky? OTOH, they could say they are just being prudent, but on the other, if they KNOW they are going to file and accept gov’t money anyway, isn’t that fraud?
I don’t get it… Worst unemployment numbers in 34 years and stocks are pretty much flat? What gives?
If it was that easy, I’d be rich.
You and me both! I guess I was hoping for today’s unemployment numbers to give SRS a nice pop.
[21,22] Chifi,
Riot. You found old footage from my bus driving days???? How thoughtful!
“I don’t get it… Worst unemployment numbers in 34 years and stocks are pretty much flat? What gives?”
It’s all priced in :)
Stocks are up, it is a bull market baby!!!
what are you talkign about?? I thought only last 15 minutes of trading count in volatility like we had in the last 3 month….
vodka (159)-
What a pair of assclowns this John and ReTard are. For all the reasons you mention, that these two would call us communists is beyond my comprehension. If a desire to see individuals and corporations take some responsibility for their actions is communist, then I guess I am one.
And while we’re tossing around invectives, here’s one for John and Tard: fascist. As in, soci@lized loss and privatized gain.
The growing realization that whatever fine minds on Wall St are outnumbered by the Johns by about 10-1 is what keeps me short the market.
What differentiates me from these dopes is the fact that should I lose everything by betting against them, I will absorb my losses, dust myself off and move on.
[162] Kettle,
Water was one factor in deciding against putting the NJREReport compound out west. Not without building a really large pond (cheaper than a cistern and you can stock it with fish), which would likely get the local greens on your case.
re: #178 Chi – Once the panic to “safety” is over the realization that your investment is being wiped out by inflation will set in, that should start at the end of 09.
Just came from having lunch in a haughty restaurant in Red Bank. The place was packed with business types sipping G&T’s and white wine. I guess it could be a pre-holiday early happy hour but it sure didn’t feel like a recession was on.
You are your own evidence that not everyone is affected (or affected equally) by recession, right?
I mean, you could afford to attend a haughty lunch, why shouldn’t there be others that can afford the same?
Unbelievable….
A unit in 700 Grove (Jersey City)
Originally purchased on 06/19/07 for $580K
Sold on 02/04/08 for $730K
grim (200)-
Should the auto bailout not go through, Nardelli, Mullaly, Waggoner, et al could make a fortune staging car crashes and feigning serious injury.
A guy who can stand in front of a camera and tell the world the US will enter a depression if his company fails can pretty much do or say anything.
is it just me or is the treasury trying to kill the real estate market even more?
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/03/news/economy/treasury_mortgage_rates/index.htm
With this announcement, who the hell in their right mind is going to buy a house now at 5.5%? I think the treasury just removed all the buyers from the market temporarily.
According to Massey Knakal, “The rent regulated units are renting for as low as 20% of market creating a tremendous opportunity to increase revenue in the future.
———————–
This is an amazing example of salesmen/realtor speak from a Daily News article about East Village rental buildings for sale. A ‘tremendous opportunity to increase revenue”. The part they left out – “FROM THE NEGATIVE CASH FLOW THIS WILL PUT YOU IN”
clot 225 “A guy who can stand in front of a camera and tell the world the US will enter a depression if his company fails can pretty much do or say anything.”
too bad there isn’t any jobs for those sort of people /sarc
Isn’t Gov Granholm considered for O cabinet?
Michigan state employees need job banks and better benefits and Gov Nardelli would have a great track record in that area!
#224 sideliner; 02/04/08, might as well be 100 A.D; that date is ancient history now.
I don’t get it… Worst unemployment numbers in 34 years and stocks are pretty much flat? What gives
Paulson has a separate stealth fund, to buy stocks, and keep the market stable.
Excellent John. We real Americans must do whatever we can to counter the terrorist ideologues and their cohorts. Can you imagine how terrorists like Kettle and Clod feel about someone spending money? They’re beside themselves.
P.S. I would advise against eating any vegetables. No telling where 3corncob has been. Until he’s safely under apprehension, no vegetable is safe…and neither are we
197-John Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
BTW to make RE 101 proud going to a christmas party tonight at a steak house in the city and plan on ordering the five pound lobster and ever appitizer in the joint. Just doing my part in these tough times. If everyone spent we could solve all our problems. Of course I am a guest so it is not my money, but nevertheless money is being spent by someone.
clotpol shortsellers are unamerican. Hedging is ok.
Grim, is Re101 sock-puppeting John? They have both become extra-insane and extra chummy lately. Re101 has always been a retard, but John seems to be singing off key, and now sharing the same fixations of Re101. John’s last post almost looks as if it was meant to be a Re101 post, but he forgot to log out.
I still think that Re101 isn’t even real. Just some 20 yr old guy in Hyderabad India who now has a lot of time on his hands waiting in a call center to service some home loan or credit card customer calls, and is pretending that he is actually living in the US.
veggies are for terroists, real men eat steak with hard liquir
197…Solve all of our problems? Who said spending your way out of something will work this time? Oh the feds.
China lectures US on economy
By Geoff Dyer in Beijing
Published: December 4 2008 04:32 | Last updated: December 4 2008 19:10
The US was lectured about its economic fragilities on Thursday as senior Chinese officials urged the administration to stabilise its economy, boost its savings rate and protect Chinese investments.
The message went to Hank Paulson, the US Treasury secretary, in Beijing for the strategic economic dialogue he helped launch to discuss long-term issues between the two countries.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/48ac15fc-c1bc-11dd-831e-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
I feel good owning stuff ok? I don’t want to live like a hermit saving 80% of my income and going without some of the nicer things in life.
You know what? You’re a commie terrorist for even raising this question.
-207
kettle1 Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
Re101,
If you really define yourself based on yuor physical possessions like you imply in your posts then i truly feel sorry for you.
How bad do you guys think things would get if there was another terrorist attack in the US?
We had a terrorist attack during both Clinton and GWB’s first years in office.
John – prove you are John and not some imposter – time for one of your stories,
Starting with… “That one time whe I was young, I saw a turkey out of my car window” ….. (please finish with 4-15 paragraphs of John-style “real life” story…)
A true American she is and Hot too!
“It’s the collapse heard around the world,” said Ellen Zentner, a senior economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “It’s probably one of the worst decisions the Fed ever made — to save everybody else but Lehman.”
Al, God Bless the Turkey now that is a real American symbol. Now Al is an English name so I can imagine you are not pro american.
#237 recorncob:I feel good owning stuff ok?
How many corncobs and vises do you own? You are truly disturbed.
Please get help, if not for you, than for your family.
John (232)-
I agree. That’s why I accepted my punishment of being locked into a short position by the SEC a few weeks ago. Because what IS American is changing the rules of the game when the game no longer suits your purposes.
I hope they lock me in again. That way, the next piece of bad news that comes down the pike will set off another 800-pt death spin, and I can make some more money for just sitting there in my little investor prison.
It’s a good thing you don’t touch stocks, and probably a better thing you don’t get near a trading floor. God forbid you figure out one day that we’d have probably had 2-3 days of shut down markets were it not for short sellers.
I don’t want to live like a hermit saving 80% of my income and going without some of the nicer things in life.
Oh, I don’t save mine. It goes to stockpiling ammunition and weapons for the eventual call-to-arms.
Well, that and donations to the SLA and Red Army Faction.
CNBC headline:
“Despite huge job losses the worst could be over”
hahahahahahahahahahaha
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — GE Capital sold $6.5 billion in debt under the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp’s guarantee program on Thursday. Of that, $3.5 billion is fixed-rate debt maturing in 2011 that came at a yield of 3.10%,
Oh my God. They got to you. Toshiro, I was always impressed by the fact that you appeared to be level headed and not a part of the type of extemism exhibited by folks like Clod and Kettle. You’ve gone to the dark side.
toshiro_mifune Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
I don’t want to live like a hermit saving 80% of my income and going without some of the nicer things in life.
Oh, I don’t save mine. It goes to stockpiling ammunition and weapons for the eventual call-to-arms.
Well, that and donations to the SLA and Red Army Faction
clotpoll
communist
loving
onion
touching
pervert
of
limited
libido
#245 kettle:Despite huge job losses the worst could be over”
hahahahahahahahahahaha
Yeah, sure,Krudlow’s mustard seeds are starting to sprout.
Toshiro, I was always impressed by the fact that you appeared to be level headed and not a part of the type of extemism exhibited by folks like Clod and Kettle.
All a clever ruse!
2 – 4 – 6 – 8 – Organize and smash the state!
Clot –
RE: Auto-bailout and depression call.
The arguments that I have been convinced about –
If these companies are allowed to fail completely, then we might just be tipped over into Depression. The multiplier effect (5-1 ?) of these jobs might just do it.
The best case scenario – prepackaged bankruptcy, management wiped out + union contracts annulled.
BTW, this thread is worth saving. I have never been so entertained by John and RE101.
Sideliner 238: “We had a terrorist attack during both Clinton and GWB’s first years in office.”
I have also been thinking about this. Major terror attack in Manhattan, perhaps destroying some key buildings and/or killing a lot of WS people would be devastating to Wall Street and NY. This would finally collapse the prices in Manhattan. The sad thing is that the probability for this is more than 95%. Anyway, I’m happy that O seems to continue GWB’s policies in every aspect (e.g. in FISA, interrogation, Iraq etc) so perhaps he can keep as almost as safe as GWB.
You guys kill me with all these accusations. I’ve stated umpteenth times that I’m an American entrepreneur with a stake in this damn country. There is no apparition at the keyboard typing posts for me. It’s me and I’m as real as a damn heart attack.
233-
A.West Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Grim, is Re101 sock-puppeting John? They have both become extra-insane and extra chummy lately. Re101 has always been a retard, but John seems to be singing off key, and now sharing the same fixations of Re101. John’s last post almost looks as if it was meant to be a Re101 post, but he forgot to log out.
I still think that Re101 isn’t even real. Just some 20 yr old guy in Hyderabad India who now has a lot of time on his hands waiting in a call center to service some home loan or credit card customer calls, and is pretending that he is actually living in the US.
Pump up the markets for the Monday auto bailout package!!
Yeah baby!
Oil is trading at 40.90$ a barrel.
Interesting.
Anyone look at the baltic dry index lately?
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_-NKEBFeFvAU/STartj6fSFI/AAAAAAAAAD8/vXAZoAJhm18/s1600-h/bdi_log.gif
#172
Ok, which of youse guys is spoofing RE101?
I have not been here that much lately but I will like to ask this question. What will it take to fix the housing market? Is it too late to do anything? I know we are looking for housing prices to fall but to what extent?
Kettle1,
The baltic dry index is a measure of international dry shipping?
waiting for the race riots to start..
Free OJ
Will V. Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
I have not been here that much lately but I will like to ask this question. What will it take to fix the housing market? Is it too late to do anything? I know we are looking for housing prices to fall but to what extent?
PITI should fall in-line with rents (should be a bit cheaper for comparable properties).
Right now I think It is ott even about housing as about people uncertain if they are going to keep their job – if you not sure about tomorrow would you really go out and buy a house??
So to buy a house a person need BIG insentive of some sort. (E.G. cheaper prices, very low rates, OR for some – mortgage deduction).
We are looking for housing prices to fall in line with historic ratios in the following areas:
Price/Average Income
Price/Comparable Rent
Even if these don’t return to historic levels there are other factors that are putting a lot of pressure on consumers. Recovery will come when the following ratios come down:
Debt/Income
Lenders have also reverted to pre-1990 standards on handing out mortgages which will require home buyers to be sidelined until they can come up with an appropriate down payment:
Two or Three years of saving
260 Nick
yes, right now a ship owner would lose money moving cargo. The cost of moving 1 standard shipping container is now higher then the going rate on the open market, i.e negative profit margin
BDI (baltic Dry Index) closed at 666 last night
Today’s OEI: the Baltic Dry Index.
Baltic Dry isn’t a Latvian deodorant or an Estonian cocktail. Rather, it’s a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange, which traces its roots to the Virginia and Baltick coffeehouse in London’s financial district in 1744.
Every working day, the Baltic canvasses brokers around the world and asks how much it would cost to book various cargoes of raw materials on various routes—150,000 tons of iron ore going from Australia to China or 150,000 tons of coal from South Africa to Taiwan. Brokers are also asked to consider variables such as the type and speed of the ship and the length of the voyage.
The answers are melded into the BDI, which appears in shipping publications such as Lloyd’s List and on the screens of information vendors such as Reuters and Bloomberg. Because it provides “an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea,” as the Baltic puts it, it provides both a rare window into the highly opaque and diffuse shipping market and an accurate barometer of the volume of global trade.
The “John” posts don’t sound like “real John,” either.
“You are your own evidence that not everyone is affected (or affected equally) by recession, right?”
I generally don’t go to nice restaurant for lunch, this was a business thingy. I am indeed feeling the effects of the recession. I am in sales/business development in the biotech field. It’s real tough to sell anything right now, especially since I focus on the emerging/virtual biopharma market.
My comment was more to towards the feeling and attitude in the room. It was noon and people were boozing, shopping bags piled up, etc. It’s just a strange phenomenon to follow the markets, the financial news, blogs, etc and get a real sense of distress, and then roll out into the street and see things as they are. Of course, the clientele at any particular place is not representative of the whole country, but the disconnect is noticeable.
Baltic Dry Index
How it works
The index is made up of an average of the Baltic Supramax, Panamax, and Capesize indices. These indices are based on professional assessments made by a panel of international shipbroking companies. The index can be accessed on a subscription basis directly from the Baltic Exchange as well as from major financial information and news services such as Thomson Reuters and Bloomberg L.P..
Most directly, the index measures the demand for shipping capacity versus the supply of dry bulk carriers. The demand for shipping varies with the amount of cargo that is being traded or moved in various markets (supply and demand). The supply of ships (cargo transports) is much less elastic than the demand for them, so the index indirectly measures global supply and demand for the commodities shipped aboard dry bulk carriers, such as building materials, coal, crude oil, metallic ores, and grains.
Because dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods, such as concrete, electricity, steel, and food, the index is also seen as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and production. The BDI is termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity.
Why economists and stock markets read it
Because it provides “an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea,” according to The Baltic, “… it provides both a rare window into the highly opaque and diffuse shipping market and an accurate barometer of the volume of global trade — devoid of political and other agenda concerns.”
Other leading economic indicators — which serve as the foundation of important political and economic decisions – are often massaged to serve narrow interests, and subjected to adjustments or revisions. Payroll or employment numbers are often estimates; consumer confidence appears to measure nothing more than sentiment, often with no link to actual consumer behavior; Gross national product figures are consistently revised, etc. Unlike stock and bond markets, the BDI “is totally devoid of speculative content,” says Howard Simons, an economist and columnist at TheStreet.com. “People don’t book freighters unless they have cargo to move.”
Lenders have also reverted to pre-1990 standards on handing out mortgages which will require home buyers to be sidelined until they can come up with an appropriate down payment:
Huh?? I can go out any minute and get 350K loan with 3% down. I kid you not. What historic norms – where is the
Eihter 20% down with 3 years stable employment or no loan???
These were norm as recent as 1997 – when one of my friends tried to get a loan, with 20% down, but loan officer laughed at him as he only had 6 month of employment history back than.
What Recession?
Corzine OKs More Staff to Process Unemployment Claim Backlog
Gov.Jon S. Corzine on Friday, Dec. 5 directed Labor Commissioner David J. Socolow to deploy an additional 130 emergency workers to process the growing backlog of unemployment benefit claims.
“Today we learned that the national unemployment rate hit a 15-year high of 6.7 percent,” said Corzine in a release.
“In the last two months, thousands of New Jersey citizens have lost their jobs as a result of the economic downturn. We must take immediate measures to assist these workers as they apply for unemployment benefits.”
“These clearly are difficult times for New Jersey’s workers and we are striving to help workers and their families through this economic storm,” said Socolow.
“Getting unemployment insurance benefits into the hands of workers who need them is vital to the economic well being, not just of workers, but also of our communities and our economy.”
Beginning two months ago, the Department of Labor and Workforce Development started the process of hiring 77 intermittent staff to assist with the workload. There are 41 workers already on the job and 36 more are presently going through the hiring process.
Of the additional 130 emergency workers to be hired, 44 will be hired to work for the duration of the recession.
Another teacher nailed
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/12/old_bridge_high_school_teacher.html
Regarding disconnect between recession and personal anecdotal observations:
I talked to people at work and people noticed it too – for all Doom and Gloom out there you’d think most of us would directly know someone laid off, unemployed or going through Foreclosure.
NOPE. NOT A SINGLE PERSON KNOWS SOMEONE WHO’S BEING DIRECTLY AFFECTED.
It seems like there is really two realities right now – for people who have a job, and the other one people who does not.
I must have talked to 10-15 people over last week about it and NOBODY being affected. You’d think with 6.7% unemployment that would not be the case.
I would say though that companies are AGGRESSIVELY controlling their costs and expenses and cutting down on future development.
Just read Kettle’s post on oil companies alone.
The mustard seeds are growing, the bear is in hibernation!!! Personal worth is a 12 legged stool, savings, stocks, bonds, housing, 401k, pension, whole life policies, cars, personal belongings, SS checks, future inheritances, and unvested stock grants. Housing is only 8% of the stool, the stool represents america and I say as an american 11 legs is enough to hold a stool up!!!!
> New investing terms.
> VALUE INVESTING — The art of buying low and selling lower.
> P/E RATIO — The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.
> BROKER — What my broker has made me.
> STANDARD & POOR — Your life in a nutshell.
> STOCK ANALYST — Idiot who just downgraded your favorite stock.
> STOCK SPLIT — When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your remaining assets equally between themselves.
FINANCIAL PLANNER — A guy whose phone has been
> disconnected.
> MARKET CORRECTION — The day after you buy stocks.
> CASH FLOW– The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.
> INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR — Last year’s brilliant investor who’s now locked up in a nuthouse.
> PROFIT — An archaic word no longer in use.
John (273)-
I think you need a stool test.
Maybe they’d find the parasite there that’s eaten your brain.
Kettle, your excerpt from the CNBC homepage was a good laugh.
Below, I have posted a photo of a strong contender for the ugliest jersey crib awards. Closest but not over wins bragging rights. Step right up, this is the njrereport equivalent of the carnival mallet slam strength test.
http://www.postlets.com/create/photos/20081029/100007_IMG_0702.JPG
(273)-
Whole life insurance as a component of personal net worth?
You must be Kudlow. And coked up, to boot.
#276 – zieba – You sure that isn’t Staten Island?
Worst job market news in 34 years yet market up over 200?? Shorts getting crushed. WTF?
No, this is affluent Hudson county baby!
Is this not evident by the ’88 Cutlass parked in the driveway.
Sean 271 Seems like an attractive girl, could have screwed anybody she wanted out of school. Stupid! “Another teacher nailed” good one!
# John Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
clotpoll
communist
loving
onion
touching
pervert
of
limited
libido
this?from a guy who f**cks onions???
Puhlllease.
sl
This was reported over 1 year ago. An increase in 8% of lost deals due to buyer financing. Do you think that it has gotten easier to obtain a mortgage?
Tighter Lending Standards Affecting Home Builders
http://www.builderonline.com/mortgages-and-banking/tighter-lending-standards-affecting-home-builders.aspx
Of those that said their business had been impacted, the average decline in sales caused by the perceived credit tightening was 31 percent, said Howard, compared with 15 percent lost business reported in March.
Overall, 36 percent of builders surveyed had contracts canceled due to a buyer’s inability to qualify for a mortgage, up from 28 percent reporting the same problem in March.
***
This next article comes from a federal reserve board survey of banks. Note that 80% of large banks and 55% of small banks tightened lending standards on PRIME borrowers. This survey was completed on October of this year.
Please, snap out of your delusion. Lending has gotten a lot tighter then you think.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/SnLoanSurvey/200811/
Questions on residential real estate lending. Large majorities of domestic respondents reported having tightened their lending standards on prime, nontraditional, and subprime residential mortgages over the previous three months. About 70 percent of domestic respondents—down from about 75 percent in the previous survey—indicated that they had tightened their lending standards on prime mortgages.2 Responses differed somewhat by bank size, with about 80 percent of the largest banks, but only 55 percent of the smaller banks, reporting tighter standards for prime borrowers. About 90 percent—up slightly from July—of the 29 banks that originated nontraditional residential mortgage loans reported having tightened their lending standards on such loans.3 All 4 of the banks that responded to the survey’s question about lending standards on subprime loans indicated that they had tightened their lending standards on such loans over the past three months.4 About 50 percent of domestic respondents—a somewhat higher fraction than the roughly 30 percent in the July survey—experienced weaker demand, on net, for prime residential mortgage loans over the past three months. A higher net fraction of large banks than smaller banks reported a decline in demand. About 70 percent of respondents—up from roughly 45 percent in the July survey—indicated weaker demand for nontraditional mortgage loans over the same period. Each of the 4 domestic banks that originated subprime mortgage loans reported weaker demand for such loans over the survey period, compared with 4 of the 7 banks that reported originating subprime loans in the July survey.
On net, about 75 percent of domestic respondents, similar to the fraction in the July survey, noted that they had tightened their lending standards for approving applications for revolving home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) over the past three months. About 25 percent of domestic banks, on net, reported weaker demand for HELOCs over the past three months, more than double the fraction that had reported weaker demand in the July survey.
Bystander 279 Can’t figure that one out either. Feeling a bit crushed myself. WTF is right.
Fed balance sheet at 3 trillion…
Fed Takes a $3 Trillion Gamble to Spur Lending
Federal Reserve officials are throwing everything they have into the fight to stabilize financial markets and restore economic growth. In the process, the Fed balance sheet is ballooning to $3 trillion, if not more. It’s a risky approach because all the cash piling up in the banking system might spark rising inflation down the road. The alternative — just relying on traditional interest-rate cuts — might leave markets and the economy mired in the mud for years. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues know that when the markets stabilize and the economy turns around, they will have to move fast to take back the extra cash and shrink the central bank’s balance sheet.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_berry&sid=aohbHGXFYtKU
——————————————
The teacher is hot!!!! Why is she being investigated. really????? she just gave that kid a memory of a life time.
High Anxiety About High Yield
Junk bond peddlers should have taken a vacation in November. That’s because there were no — count ‘em, zero — high-yield corporate bond
deals done last month on the entire planet, according to data from Thomson Reuters. That is the worst showing since March 1991, when the market for junk debt, more politely known as high yield, was in ashes. The drought is understandable: Investors, it seems, have no appetite
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/04/high-anxiety-about-high-yield/
Bystander Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Worst job market news in 34 years yet market up over 200?? Shorts getting crushed. WTF?
Someone said it….priced in….that is why it is hard to short, because you have to stick out some serious pi$$ to go lower….
Al,
Here is some evidence for you:
My sister-in-law lost her job. She worked for a commercial construction company. She is still unemployed after 6 months.
I have two brothers who are residential/commercial painters who are living on subsistence wages, one complains about not having enough gas to drive to work constantly.
The guy who shares my office at work has two brothers that are now unemployed due to the automotive industry, a mechanic and a design drafter.
Just because it hasn’t reached you yet doesn’t mean it isn’t going to kick down your door.
# Bystander Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Worst job market news in 34 years yet market up over 200?? Shorts getting crushed. WTF?
just opportunity knocking….
sl
The Downturn Hits Dubai
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,594368,00.html
Chi,
I was being facetious. Moron’s think its all priced in which means it might as well be priced in but in the long term the trend is still going to be down.
China is in a more precarious position then the US. should be quite a show.
Trouble In The World’s Factory: Slowing Economy Spurs Disquiet in China
An eerie quiet has descended on the world’s factory, especially in places where machines are suddenly at a standstill. In Dongguan in southern China’s Pearl River Delta, hundreds of workers from the bankrupt Weixu shoe factory march silently through the city, causing traffic jams on wide streets usually crowded with a constant stream of heavily loaded trucks. Dongguan is an important motor in the Chinese export machine. The city, not far from Hong Kong, is home to row after row of low-wage factories. The streets are normally empty during the day. At Weixu, for example, migrant workers lived in dormitories directly on the factory grounds, crowded into small, multiple-occupancy rooms.
But now the drudges are out in public, staging street demonstrations somewhere in Dongguan almost every day. Many factories are running out of money and work now that China’s consumers in Europe and the United States are buying less. The 2,000 Weixu workers do not carry protest signs or use whistles. China does not permit unions that could organize the protests. The men and women, many of them looking young enough to be teenagers, are driven by rage, demanding wages which haven’t been paid in months. Their boss, a Taiwanese, fled the city at night.
One worker, who calls herself “Little Li,” affixed shoe-size labels to boxes until recently. One day at noon, as she reports, she and other workers overheard suppliers at the factory gate loudly demanding payment for their goods. “We stopped work immediately,” she says. By working overtime, which is common, 24-year-old Li earned up to €130 ($102) a month, twice as much as the paltry minimum wage. But now she lacks the money for a rail ticket back to her native Yunnan Province. She is anxious to leave the Pearl Delta region and is pinning her hopes on promises made by the local government to pay each worker.
The woman is in luck. With the Chinese authorities fearing major unrest, municipalities in the region have been paying workers their outstanding wages with a surprising lack of bureaucracy. It is a program that China can easily afford. It has the world’s largest foreign currency reserves: about $1.9 trillion (€1.5 trillion). The crowds jostling at train stations in the Pearl River Delta are almost as thick as they are during the traditional Chinese New Year festival. Migrant workers are returning to rural areas in large numbers, going home to their families to weather the crisis by growing crops in their own fields once again.
The global economic crisis is hitting China with such force that the government and party have been completely taken by surprise and are increasingly overwhelmed. Even though the police are under strict orders not to provoke demonstrators, friction is growing in Dongguan. At Kaida Toys, a toy factory owned by investors from Hong Kong, 500 angry workers stormed the administration building last week, smashing windows and computers. Then the crowd tangled with about 1,000 police officers, even turning over squad cars. More and more protests are flaring up around the country. In the capital Beijing, angry workers picketed the corporate headquarters of liquor-maker China Resources, holding signs demanding the payment of their outstanding wages. Taxi drivers went on strike in Chongqing and other cities.
The protests may be just the beginning. The People’s Republic of China, whose economy grew at an astonishing 11.9 percent in 2007, is suddenly feeling the extreme extent to which it depends on the global economy. Until recently, many Chinese economic experts took a completely different view of the situation. Encouraged by Western economists, they believed that China was in the process of economically “decoupling” itself from the West. Sounding almost generous, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao noted that China’s greatest contribution to the world will continue growing strongly and smoothly. But he failed to explain how that will happen if the main buyers of Chinese mass-produced goods, most of all the United States, are ailing…….
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,594490,00.html
NOPE. NOT A SINGLE PERSON KNOWS SOMEONE WHO’S BEING DIRECTLY AFFECTED.
The STATE OF MARYLAND is putting people on unpaid leave for 14 days, a 4% drop in pay for the year.
The reason why you can’t find someone directly affected is because your not even trying.
Nicholas Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
Where is the part about NJ sucking?
sl (288)-
SRS/SKF now trading at the same levels they were during the early part of the short-selling ban.
Just picked up another chunk of SRS at $99. Unbelievable.
clot
;)
sl
Nick,
here you go
Baltic Dry, Global Trade Continues to Collapse
http://benbittrolff.blogspot.com/2008/12/baltic-dry-global-trade-continues-to.html
has a long term chart for reference as well
clot: be really f—ing careful…that said, I have a very bad feeling in my bones…around this time next week something really whacko is comin’ our way….
At least OJ is finally going to jail. That is something we can all celebrate.
Dang keyboard… meant was,
“Just smile and wave, boys, smile and wave…;)”
sl
#272 AL: NOPE. NOT A SINGLE PERSON KNOWS SOMEONE WHO’S BEING DIRECTLY AFFECTED.
Funny, it is the exact opposite with me. Everyone I know, knows someone who has been negatively affected (job loss), by this unfolding recession.
In fact some of the biggest rah,rah cheerleaders I know have been directly affected by it, or are concerened that they will be.
Oh and nobody, is talking about real estate values going up any more.
#278 toshiro: It could be Ft. Lee too.
Clot, I am in with both fists.
BTW,
There was a caravan of four large armored bank trucks flying up the turnpike this morning towards the GWB with a rather large black on black crown vic escort. I saw this because one of the black on black vic’s blocked my onramp into I95 as they drove by!
Was this heading straight to Wall Street at which point wheelbarrows of money were dumped around the NYSE xmas tree?
chi (297)-
I have infinite patience and the belief that whatever the dopes-in-charge try to do to stabilize housing will fail.
If I am wrong, I will be sure to report here that my office is full of buying prospects and that my phone is ringing off the wall. The gains I’d see from that far outweigh the potential losses I’d take getting out of a short squeeze.
Today, mortgage rates sit a full 100 bps lower than where they were last week. Other than a few refi’s, nothing’s changed.
The reason why you can’t find someone directly affected is because your not even trying.
Hey I am not saying it is not happening.
I just said what I saw. I am not saying it won’t affect me – I can lose my job anytime. Nobody but CEO’s are safe. But right now it is really seems like two seoarate worlds. You (Nicholas) seems to be interacting with “other” reality more.
But I think what it shows is that one can not make conclusions from anecdotal/personal observations, such as their personal restaurant was full/empty. Or 287 seems to be packed… When was it not?)
ChiFi
what do you think of the suggestions of a substantial chinese currency devaluation?
They are starting to feel a lot of heat with the collapse of US demand.
#297 chgo:I have a very bad feeling in my bones…around this time next week something really whacko is comin’ our way….
Economic, financial, political, terrorist attack?
Oh and nobody, is talking about real estate values going up any more.
That seems to be the case.
Funny – I am considering buying something next year, and people kind of looking at me like I am a bit crazy – I guess they do not remember that they have also looked at me like I was crazy in 2006 when I said that I can not afford anything, everything in NJ wes extremelly overpriced, and If I have to will rent forever.
To post #307
Something a lot worse than over 1,000,000 job lost in 3 month???
Thanks for the link Kettle,
I knew that we would have problems with global goods shipping pretty soon as that was a topic of interest a month or two back. It seems that shipping has ground to a halt.
I heard about 2 weeks back an NPR piece where a metal recycler in California was commenting on metal that he shipped to China. The buyers were refusing to take delivery of the goods at the contracted price. He noted that when prices were rising and it took 1 month to ship the metal he didn’t renegotiate the contract upward.
By reneging they were causing irreparable damage to buisness relationships. He now refuses to ship to several of his long time customers because of failed contracts.
I told my wife that she better get used to wearing things out instead of wearing them in because there is a real possibility that imported goods will get very scarce in the future.
From Bloomberg:
Fed Buys $5 Billion of Fannie, Freddie, FHLB Debt
The Federal Reserve bought $5 billion of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Federal Home Loan Bank corporate debt under a new program aimed at reducing mortgage costs.
The central bank acquired bonds with maturities between December 2009 and November 2010, according to the New York Fed’s Web site. Dealers offered $12.9 billion of the securities. The purchases under the $100 billion program are the Fed’s first buying of long-term “agency” debt in 28 years.
Asset buying by the Fed represents “step three” in the U.S. government’s efforts to fix the financial system and curb a yearlong recession, following provisions of loans and capital to banks, George Goncalves, the chief Treasury and agency strategist with Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note to clients today.
“Moving to actually purchasing assets and not just funding them — this as we have been saying is the quantum leap that will work off the liquidity programs in place,” Goncalves said. New York-based Morgan Stanley is one of 17 primary dealers that trade with the central bank.
RE: 309
Al,
http://4loves.com/links/hell-handbasket.gif
Al,
This is a one trick pony called “housing bust”. If you don’t know people related to finance, construction, or the automotive industry (which sold those trucks to contractors) then you would have to pretty isolated.
I’m not sure what you do Al but if you gave me a general area I’m pretty sure I could point you in the direction of greatest pain.
Asset buying by the Fed represents “step three” in the U.S. government’s efforts to fix the financial system and curb a yearlong recession, following provisions of loans and capital to banks, George Goncalves, the chief Treasury and agency strategist with Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note to clients today.
Does the FED have enough money left in the TARP program to fund this? Or will they have to go back to Congress to get the remaining 350 bn before they can purchase these bonds from the 17 banks?
Nick,
cant find the article, but several international food manufacturers have announced their supply chains have started to fall apart. If the Shipping situation doesnt improve, then 1st world nations could see shortages next fall.
The UN FAO is predicting widespread shortages and hunger in developing nations this summer because of a combination of the shipping problem and the general credit crunch ( no loans for planting, and no loans for buying food directly).
——————————————
to your point about metal prices:
Metal prices fall further than during Great Depression
The price of key industrial metals has fallen further over the last four months than occurred during the worst years of Great Depression between 1929 and 1933, according to research by Barclays Capital. Kevin Norrish, the bank’s commodities strategist, said the average fall in the price of copper, lead, and zinc has been roughly 60pc since the peak in July this year. All three metals were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the inter-war years so it is possible to make a comparison…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/mining/3543370/Metal-prices-fall-further-than-during-Great-Depression.html
——————————————
and anecdata from china:
I am in China on a business trip. I flew into Shanghai. On the approach,I observed many evenly spaced lights that I thought were on the coast.
As we descended, I got a closer look. The lights were ships, moored in row after row off the coast. You could see their reflections in the water.
There must have been hundreds of idle ships there.
Who threw all the Red on my screen?
Kettle,
Widespread famine could have serious consequences for global security.
Dubya Dubya Trois?
Nick,
we will see war at some point in all of this. The question is between who and at what scale
#249 Clotpoll:
Circumspect
Learner
Of
Transcendant
Perspective
Obliterating
Lesser
Looneytunes
Vic,
Santa John
313
My company just put everyone on a forced one day off every two weeks, cut our 401K match, and canceled the year end bonus.
I’m suprised it took this long. We’re a plumbing / hvac distributor.
Here is a chart from Calculated Risk that shows YoY percentage change for loan demand, lending standards, and investment in non-residential structures.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SQ9S3AvFMFI/AAAAAAAADtE/wtJB6SId8kU/s1600-h/FedStandardsOct08.jpg
Al, I know I’m throwing a lot of web pages at you and the web isn’t the greatest research tool (misinformation) but this site compiles it data from the FED data.
Here is another laugher, this time form Hartford Insurance..
Hartford more than doubles in price on outlook
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/081205/business_us_hartford.html?.v=4
A month ago they could not price what was on their books and now all is well. I am calling BS here, big time!
Kettle1,
I better start exercising again then, after I checked out of uniform I gained about 35 lbs.
I’m going to start hedging the “involuntary recall” bet by exercising.
HEHEHE (319)
“Santa John”
– There is probably an extra sack of onions down the chimney @ John’s this Christmas.
Kettle 318 posted my war call months ago. No one even bothered to respond. Then there was some talk on it last month I believe.
Now it would seem it looks more likely to more people. It is coming as you say, where & whom are not that clear & we could put up scenarios all night but make no mistake it’s coming.
kettle,
was that you who called $40 crude?
congrats!
SAS
this stock market is irratic right now.
yikes!
better off investing in food.
(i.e best store up and do some canning)
SAS
kettle1 Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
ChiFi what do you think of the suggestions of a substantial chinese currency devaluation?
They are starting to feel a lot of heat with the collapse of US demand.
? What would that accomplish? I don’t think the issue is price…..
If crude falls much lower, at what point do we start bankrupt the middle east, and they in turn, no longer buy our debt. Sending the dollar and the US economey into the toliet?
Thats a big unknown right now.
what say you?
SAS
In today’s installment of “Do Multi-millionaires really shop for homes on Craig’sList?”
We bring you this $7.8 million beauty…
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/reb/930065357.html
(believe this was featured on CNBC?)
I got about 2-3 weeks of food on hand in case of minor shortages.
buying real estate should be the last thing on anyones mind right now. Unless there is one hell of a deal out there.
Sellers, welcome to the new world.
SAS
anyone have a prediction how long it will take O to invade Pakistan?
– There is probably an extra sack of onions down the chimney @ John’s this Christmas.
Um…nope… just an extra jar of c0cktail onions in the fridge.
sl
SAS,
bi called oil at $40
sl
I don’t think that O has to invade Pakistan. There is enough opium comming from Afghanistan to lay waste to neighboring countries.
Iran and Pakistan are in for a surprise when begin to deal with heroin slavery.
#326 My guess would be China.
#332 Not just food, have one extra of everything – tp, Tylenol, toothpaste.
SAS,
Earlier in the thread there was some articles about Dubai and Abu Dahbi and the financial mess they are moving into.
I don’t think it will be very long before they receive a heaping of pain.
#335 Good one, sl!
“bi called oil at $40”
that was a damn good call or just flat a$$ lucky.
SAS
Clot,
It’s only a loss if you sell
i thought 200 before 40.
SAS
but, as geopolitical things heat up (Pakistan, Iran) heat up. It can shoot back up as fast as it shot down.
SAS
SSS the $40 oil call was in August 07. I don’t think Bi was predicting Jan 09 more like Jan 08.
Making predictions are only good if you are backing it up with money. Otherwise it just plain luck.
bklynhawk Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
In today’s installment of “Do Multi-millionaires really shop for homes on Craig’sList?”
We bring you this $7.8 million beauty…
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/reb/930065357.html
(believe this was featured on CNBC?)
I must be stupid… but wouldn’t you if you are trying to sell 7.8 MIl home AT LEAST GET A LEAF BLOWER AND CLEAN THE LEAFS AROUND POOL?IN THE POOL??? WTF???
Why would real estate agent post this?
I would sue him for destroying the value of a house by publishing bad pictures… After all it is his profession!!!
Lets say for 2 mil???
#344,
You are correct, the backyard is dirty. I am going to lowball it for $499K ..hehe
The look on the seller/agent will be priceless.
Bank Failure Friday!
First Georgia Community Bank closed by regulators.
[334] sl,
ROFLMAO.
It reminded me of an ex, who referred to one of her exes as “needled!ck, the bug f@cker”
[346]
Seems like they should just shut down the entire state of Georgia.
Irony was, about 6 years ago GA passed strict lender liability laws that imposed 3rd party liability on CDO holders. The ratings services said that they would not rate tranches with GA loans, so GA quickly unpassed the law. How much of that lending would have ground to a halt, and inadvertently stopped those banks from risky lending, had the law stuck?
We’ll never know.
“Making predictions are only good if you are backing it up with money. Otherwise it just plain luck”
who says nobody threw down any jack on their calls?
SAS
interesting snapshot:
“African Americans are especially at risk in the auto crisis”
http://tinyurl.com/6odj9g
Report Shows Stagnant Upward Mobility in U.S.
http://tinyurl.com/629m88
anyone have a prediction how long it will take O to invade Pakistan?
Considering they have Nuclear Weapons, probably December 2012.
“anyone have a prediction how long it will take O to invade Pakistan?”
He is his crumbbums are chomping at the bit.
Omama ain’t nothing but a paint job.
but you blokes wanted “change”
ha ha ha…
SAS
Will people in Chatham ever become realistic with their prices?
http://newmls.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?report=clientfull&Id=38129347_39745
Alot of houses way overpriced here, especially the one on Woods.
354 Steve P
Holy moly! I wonder if they pick their house pricing the way people pick lottery numbers- no strategy, just luck.
354, 355: When I look at the listing dates I see that most of those houses have been on the market forever with little price drops as well. Its no wonder they are not selling.
“Will people in Chatham ever become realistic with their prices?”
After Wall St. dries up, will Chatham even be around? or will it be dust in the wind?
SAS
” I wonder if they pick their house pricing the way people pick lottery numbers- no strategy, just luck”
Its like how they determine health care prices: They throw it against the wall and see what sticks.
SAS
Mike,
You have indeed been suggesting that war was on the horizon.
——————————————-
SAS
I dont see us going into Pakistan baring WWIII. If we are concerned about nukes we will send in special Ops to acquire or destroy the weapons.
China wouldnt let us just walk into pakistan. we would get smacked around like we did for messing around in georgia.
SAS
the real question is what do you do with 20K troops stationed in the US for northcom when we are about to see widespread unrest?
“I dont see us going into Pakistan baring WWIII. If we are concerned about nukes we will send in special Ops to acquire or destroy the weapons”
yes. I would agree. That would be the smart thing to do.
Actually, the really smart thing to do would be to open dioplomatic relationships.
SAS
but, omama would love to go in there… so we will see.
SAS
“the real question is what do you do with 20K troops stationed in the US for northcom when we are about to see widespread unrest?”
we are about to find out if the pension funds collapse.
Like I’ve said…review Argentina.
SAS
#330 bklyn: It looks ike a catering hall.
http://nypublicpayrollwatch.com/
#354 Steve: they will and soon. If they want to sell, they have no other choice. It is as simple as that.
Tin soldiers and Nixon’s coming.
Are the only free markets left just prostitution, pawnbrokers and illegal drugs?
SAS
I thik that the reality the US faces while perhaps similar to argentina, will have additional challenges. falling from the top is always a harder impact then falling from the middle of the pack. the US population is less prepared to handle such environments, and there are a lot of cultural subdivisions that could become nasty when things fall apart.
The more homogeneous a population the better they generally fare in tough times
Now, where is my checkbook, dammit!!
“Five or 10 years from now, when the financial crisis has ended and housing prices are up smartly once more, we will look in the rearview mirror and realize that we missed a golden age for first-time home buyers.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/06/business/yourmoney/06money.html?ref=yourmoney
BC
in honor on NJP,
simple answers to simple questions:
Are the only free markets left just prostitution, pawnbrokers and illegal drugs?
Yes
BC
at least they are real capitalists.
“free markets left just prostitution, pawnbrokers and illegal drugs”
I totally agree.
Thats why all above should be legal.
SAS
and btw…
if you don’t think that the govt smuggles it drugs and funnel the cash to banks and wall st… you best think again.
there is a drug war, to keep out any rogue competition.
I saw the shoot down choppers that were rogue, but let the choppers that were there own fly right into the states.
SAS
Now let me see can’t be a prostitute, maybe a drub dealer ,no, do the profits, ha a pawn broker that’s it. How do you get into that?
I just watched “Charlie Wilson’s War”, so I am ready to believe anything.
“I just watched “Charlie Wilson’s War”, so I am ready to believe anything”
Charlie WIlson’s War is total BS.
Its just a movie bloke.
SAS
364/3b – yeah, it doesn’t have a lot of “warmth”…who knows maybe with the right decorator…
more just still amazed that someone would list a $7.8MM house on CL…i guess multi-millionaires go on there as well…
Kettle 359 I have been suggesting war as it has always been over resources & they are going to get tight. Food ,fuel, you name it,just a matter of time. Keep an eye on that Baltic index, no shipping oh boy!
I told you blokes the story of when I was in the military, we took metals from southeast asia companies, govts, and wich big wigs. Then wa-la, a bull market came in metals, timing was impecable.
SAS
but hey.. what do I know :)
SAS
“suggesting war as it has always been over resources”
also bloke, its not always about resources.
sometimes its about consolidation.
ex. consolidation to a very few, while the rest get nada.
aka. what is happening in the financial markets right now.
SAS
granted, we cant make a direct 1-1 comparison, but to put things in perspective….
if the dow and S&) had dropped as much as the BDI has in 5 months (94%), then we would be at:
dow: 840 (no not thousand) from a high of 14,000
S&P: 90 from a high of 1500
Mike,
BDI cant really go any lower unless shipping STOPS.
the world is running off of stockpiles right now. many of those stock piles will run out summer or fall of 09 if sipping doesnt improve.
holy Sh1t….
California May Pay With IOUs for Second Time Since Depression.
California, the world’s eighth largest economy, may pay vendors with IOUs for only the second time since the Great Depression, State Finance Director Mike Genest said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2TUhalNFDds
Cali is the 7th largest economy in the world and it has now started paying with IOU’s?????
Have been swamped at work and haven’t been able to keep up and read for the last few days. Unemployment numbers 500k, marketgoes up over 250…WTF? I am off to watch Wall-E with Lil Gator. Might actually be more grounded in reality than America.
Mike,
another fun fact. if shipping doesnt pick up sometime this winter we will likely see a large number of ships get moth balled. it can take 6+ months to take a ship back out of mothball status. There is a significant lag time for shipping to restart one it sits idle for a while
Looking at that house on craiglist, I could’nt help but wonder why anyone would want a house like that. It is beyond my comprehension and I assume you would have had to grown up in that type of home? I mean if I won 100 million dollars I would not want that home. I can’t imagine myself living there or wanting to. How many people would you have to invite over to enjoy a party? I mean I have had 20+ people in my apt and everyone one is comfortable having a good time, able to talk to each other and sit and eat. How much space do people need? If and when I entertain more than that amount I get a hall, why would you want to live in a hall?
Would anyone here like to live in that house, really? Elaborate on day to day life in that house.
KL
sas
Just a movie? Well what the hell else am I supposed to believe in? Ronald Reagan believed he was living in a movie and he toppled communism.
“Just a movie? Well what the hell else am I supposed to believe in?”
better to believe in John Perkins, Maquilopolis, and Pino Solanas.
and of course, me:)
“Ronald Reagan believed he was living in a movie and he toppled communism”
I think the pope, CIA, & Operation Cyclone played a larger role.
along with a few others.
SAS
sas
not in his mind. stop pushing reality, it doesn’t look good on my big screen tv.
Hey Grim,
Just emailed you a spreadsheet with Union County sales info. Looking forward to seeing some of your cool graphs for UC along with your monthly BC info. Thanks.
Al #272,
NOPE. NOT A SINGLE PERSON KNOWS SOMEONE WHO’S BEING DIRECTLY AFFECTED.
This reminds me of a recent IM conversation I had with an ex-colleague who lives in a neighborhood in B’water popular with NYC commuters.
I said what you said: that I don’t know anyone who’s been laid off. It’s true, too. I don’t. The only people I know who are having trouble today are people who have had trouble all along.
His response: WTF? Apparently,on his block half the homes have a recent job loss.
It’s all about who you hang out with. I know two people who recently (last 30 days) got jobs in Pharma, one in Jersey and one relo’d to a Philly suburb.
Of course, when the unemployment rate is 6.7% (I do believe the number) there’s still a 0.933 probability that every person you’ll meet will have a job. So that I don’t know anyone who doesn’t isn’t all that surprising.
A new way to job hunt.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/LIVING/12/05/unemployed.sign/index.html#cnnSTCVideo
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm?showmore=1
I have been reading in the Ticker Forums regarding the market action after 2:00 yesterday that some attributed to “Hartford” but this link shows the New York Fed MAYBE making good on his pledge (to China) to start buying Fannie paper…causing market action at the end of the day Friday????
Some on that board saying the Chinese gov (who were just here for a visit) were going to sue to force the gov here to buy GSE debt so they can bail at par.
Supposedly they have commited (US) to put in $100B over the next 6 months so this $5B would be a start.
Remember the video that shows how some of the $700B was supposed to “help foreign investors?” Hummm
I am trying to put 2 and 2 together and will continue to investigate…
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1864669,00.html
Times article “Paulson in China: The Monster Under the Bed.”
Some conflicting views here….from reperocussions for America would be catastrophic to
Brad Setzer saying that the overall demand for US capital is deminishing and that the bottom line is “the U.S. is becoming less dependent on Chinese investment.”
Speaking of China, well Republic of China
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2RpGtwlCYMg
She’s saying
“long time no see (haven’t seen you for a while)
disappeared
her s shape is back.”
She’s a talk show host, called xiao s. This was made after she had her second kid.
Something to lighten up the gloom on this thread.
Price reductions and comp killers galore in my daily Essex listings today:
40 Wingate Dr Livingston (2598292) Corp owned
OLP 489,900
LP 459,900
Sold 5/28/04 – 555,000
77 Stony Lane Short Hills (2575504)
OLP 825.000
LP 700,000
100 Oakview Ter short Hills (2591619)
OLP 848,500
LP 800,000
Listing says huge price reduction, so I wonder if this is a relist.
http://newmls.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?report=clientfull&Id=38699521_6166
Rents tumble in inner Sydney
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/rents-tumble-in-inner-sydney/2008/12/05/1228257317698.html
The suburbs in this article line Sydney’sharbour across water from the Opera House and/or Sydney’s skyline. Like living in Edgewater or Fort Lee, only nicer.
Grim,
This week’s report from the hinterlands:
Hunterdon County Comp Killers
GSMLS recorded 10 sales and 40 new listings in Hunterdon County this week. One sale and six new listings made this list.
For a new wrinkle, I have given the percentage off the prior sale price in each case, plus percentage off prior expired listings where applicable.
One Hunterdon County Comp Killer:
MLS# 2568681
7 WESTCHESTER TER
Clinton Twp
SLD: 09/14/05 $189,000
OLP: 05/05/08 $162,500
LLP: 08/03/08 $146,000
Expired – DOM: 90
OLP: 08/20/08 $146,000
LLP: 10/21/08 $143,000
SLD: 11/30/08 $128,500
DOM: 62
32.12% off 09/05 sale price
20.93% off 05/08 OLP
Six Hunterdon County FUTURE Comp Killers:
MLS# 2612274
274 COUNTY RD 579
Alexandria Twp
SLD: 02/08/05 $689,900
OLP: 12/02/08 $624,000
DOM: 4
09.66% off 02/05 sale price
MLS#: 2612349
8 WHISPERING HILLS DR
Clinton Twp
SLD: 10/24/05 $444,000
OLP: 07/28/08 $474,900
LLP: 10/30/08 $439,000
Expired – DOM:94
OLP: 12/01/08 $439,000
DOM: 5
01.13% off 10/05 sale price
07.66% off 07/08 OLP
MLS#: 2613624
13 ELWOOD AVE
Flemington Boro
SLD: 05/02/07 $400,000
OLP: 12/05/08 $393,300
DOM: 1
01.77% off 05/07 sale price
MLS#: 2612988
27 LONDONDERRY DR
Raritan Twp
SLD: 10/21/05 $399,900
OLP: 12/04/08 $369,900
DOM: 2
07.50% off 10/05 sale price
MLS#: 2613684
26 MEADOW RD
Readington Twp
SLD: 10/14/04 $615,000
OLP: 05/21/08 $500,000
LLP: 11/17/08 $420,000
Expired – DOM: 180
OLP: 12/05/08 $370,000
DOM: 1
39.84% off 10/04 sale price
26.00% off 05/08 OLP
MLS#: 2612998
5 Strawberry Court
Readington Twp
SLD: 07/02/02 $434,900
OLP: 05/20/08 $524,900
LLP: 11/30/08 $435,000
Expired – DOM: 194
OLP: 12/03/08 $424,900
DOM: 3
02.30% off 07/02 sale price
19.15% off 05/08 OLP
willwork- great job on the hinterlands report, thanks for the efforts.
I don’t think that was the real John either yesterday, he usually rambles, but he has some good insights, yesterday was bizarre
I think it was the real John. He’s a little schizo.
An unusual cluster of three [short sales?] next to each other in Berkeley Heights – same listing agent normally not working in the area. Two single family, 1 4-family. One of the worst locations in town – but should get better in a few years as the just closed industrial property across the street gets rehabilitated
MLS 2603908
2604147
2603982
Beer 403:
Have you seen this future comp killer/short sale: MLS: 2593384
OLP: 399000
LP: 295000
Purchased 2006: 545000
Assuming the sale data is correct that a huge comp killer. MLS notes say that the house has been totally gutted though.
6 Acres of land in Tewksbury for 300k isnt bad although it looks like it is off a busy road.
bucks county laugher
house goes on the market yesterday for 600k.
http://www.trendmls.com/mls/Report/ClientListingReport.aspx
nice looking house, nice yard, good neighborhood.
guess what the house next door – roughly the same size, but with another full bathroom – sold for in Oct. 2006?
$600k.
can’t wait to see how the realtor reacts to this at the open house tomorrow.
407 galgon
Ay Caramba! Looks like an attempt at a flip gone horribly, monumentally, wrong. Notice how they tried to get triple what they paid after only six weeks back in 2006.
That fantasy price they were trying to get makes for an eyepopping reduction over the first OLP:
MLS#: 2593384
5 LAUREL MOUNTAIN WAY
Tewksbury Twp
SLD: 10/19/06 $545,000
OLP: 12/01/06 $1,700,000
Withdrawn – DOM: 42
OLP: 04/27/08 $550,000
LLP: 07/18/08 $489,000
Withdrawn – DOM: 82
OLP: 10/06/08 $399,000
LLP: 12/05/08 $295,000
DOM: 61
45.88% off 10/06 sale price
82.65% off 12/06 OLP
Recession has hit Europe, too.
Amsterdam to cut brothels by half
Can someone with GSMLS access please provide the address for 2612226 in Millburn?
Thanks.
Gator-
2612226 is 8 Glen Ave, List Price $618K
Listing says BEST VALUE IN MILLBURN- NEW 3 YEAR OLD COLONIAL- FEATURES OPEN FLOOR PLAN, GOURMET KITCHEN TOTALLY OPEN TO FAMILY ROOM W/ GAS FP, HIGH CELINGS, GREAT MASTER BEDROOM SUITE WITH 3 MORE BEDROOMS ON 2ND
Is there a football game today??
Thanks, Fiddy. Best value, huh? Backs to the train tracks.
BTW – Monmouth County tax database is a great way to find this data out. I was able to plug in the year built and assessment values into the advanced search and it served it right up.
They are asking 23k over 2005 purchase price and I bet they have to sell.
Anecdotal:
Guy we know at JP Morgan was just told that if he wants to keep his job, he has to move to Europe. He is crushed. Has lived in NYC for 20 years, has a great apartment, bought a Hamptons house (not a million dollar one) a few years back and this past summer had just finished renovations.
dont know his department or the timetable, but he’s got to make the move sometime in early january. so he’s got to make all those decisions – and also what to do with his leased BMW – in the next couple weeks.
happy holidays!
This is bananas. Has anyone successfully pulled this off?
yikes:
Can be done easily with my bank but in different way.
1.Transfer from my visa to my checking
2.Balance transfer from the new card to my visa.
Since my APR is $7.5 for both cash advance and purchases it will cost me several pennies.
sure is quiet in here…
SAS
wrong again, buttplug. the overriding point is to buy things you CAN AFFORD. if you can’t afford it, don’t buy it. what is so difficult to comprehend about this?
you won’t respond to it because there is no comeback.
i find it funny that people try to equate spending money with fun.
Grr
APR is 7.5% no $7.5
I may just have to tell a story to liven up the joint…
Which one to tell? let me think about it.
SAS
“3M to cut 1,800 more jobs, postpone merit pay — report”
http://tinyurl.com/5oojvg
414 yikes: that’s interesting about the JPM guy, I would have thought that banking jobs in London or Zurich are in as much trouble as over here. Is there actually any region now that’s doing well?
Mom Report: During a playdate, one of The Moms asked, “have you heard anything about The Amero?”
i said i had heard about it, but only on the blogs. she blamed Bush and said Canada would be a hard sell. I pointed out we had nukes. She looked nervous. She mentioned her husband wanted to get a place in the middle of nowhere and sit on the roof with a gun.
I should really send her a link to this place…
Hey all,
Back from AC. I lost again :( but not that much fortunately. Place was way emptier than usual (even with smoking reinstated), and same empty billboards line the AC Expressway. So many things to weigh in on.
First, what ChiFi is feeling in his bones is nothing less than the ‘frist’ real arctic blast of winter. Have we all forgotten about the infamous bear market rally. My short positions are still pretty small, but will be increased on Monday. I’m sort of glad I was away from my TD Ameritrade account yesterday as I would have most likely bought more shares too early. I will continue to average in until the DJIA gets to 10K. This has been my strategy all along and until there is some sign of optimism or impetus I will continue to follow my plan.
As for knowing people who have been laid off…At the Rutgers game on Thursday, out of our 15 person tailgate, two are on unemployment. One worked at Fidelity and the other at ML. My brother (at Factiva) is scared sh*tless and you all know that my day is probably coming.
The 0% credit card option is a complete waste of time. Especially now that the banks have chosen to collude on credit-card related information. If you are carrying a large balance and have good enough credit to get the 0%, then great! Otherwise stay far away. Every time you open a new credit card, your credit rating takes a hit. And where are you planning on investing this $20K that is secure enough to counter the 30% interest rate that you will have to pay the CC company back at if you somehow lose the nut. These AORs (App-O-Ramas) have been taking place for years and lots of people lose on ’em. Check the forums at fatwallet.com to hear the horror stories.
Fatwallet is a cheapo junkies paradise. Be warned.
Bankruptcy is only solution to save US auto industry. The unions must be broken to lower the wage of the auto workers so car prices can be lower than imports, which they no longer are. With that said, I expect gov’t to provide bridge loans under the Paulson payment plan. $25 billion now and $25 billion later.
John has become reCorncobber and reCorncobber has become John. What the dealio?
4.5% ain’t gonna help no one. No one has the DP nor is willing to touch RE when renting is so much cheaper. I say lower the mortgage rate to 0% and then maybe you’ll see some buying. Of course the banks would have to loan you the money still.
Other stuff…
WHTG 106.3 in Eatontown still rocks. Heard a montage of absolutely kick butt songs on my way through their listening area coming back from AC this morning.
Downed two Smithwicks this afternoon. Tasty!
Looking forward to Lost Vegas on Thursday. G’night ya’all.
sas: storytime! yea! i’ll tell one of mine if you tell one of yours…
layoffs: i think the story is bigger and longer and slower. (not that one million in three months is something to sneeze at)…
my kid sister lost her second job at the pizzaria when flour prices skyrocketed. (flour price went up, pizza price went up… people who buy pizza bought less pizza)
her main job is at a high end boutique stationary shop. people who buy monogrammed stationary are still buying monogrammed stationary.
when people see i’m reading regency romances, i claim it’s research. i don’t say it’s class stratification trend research…
oh, and lisoosh (if you’re out there), did you get my email?
# Nicholas Says:
December 5th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
I got about 2-3 weeks of food on hand in case of minor shortages.
damn. 2-3 weeks worth of what? water too?
Angry laid-off workers occupy factory in Chicago.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081206/workers_takeover.html
seems to me the baltic dry index is in freefall.
Low Rates, Big Problems
“Finally, there is no way the government would be able to borrow that much money at the long end of the rate curve without driving interest rates much higher. The only reason long-term rates are so low now is that the government is concentrating its borrowing on the short end of the curve. So to pull of the trade, the government will have to finance it with treasury bills. If we turn the government into a massively leveraged hedge fund that cycles a multi-trillion dollar carry trade of short-term debt used to finance long term mortgages, then I think we already know how that movie ends.”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/109496-low-rates-big-problems
Schiff on the new lower rates by are friends in the gov. Did I say friends.
“6 Acres of land in Tewksbury for 300k isnt bad although it looks like it is off a busy road.”
—-> House is a dump. 6 acres of land. Yeah, the house sits right behind the Police Station (200 feet if that), depot station for the township, basically on a main road but they put the long ass driveway on Laurel way for “curb” appeal. Oh, next to the Police station is the Middle school. Hardly a deal @ $295. I’m sure this house has major septic issues & eng. fees will be needed to make this dump a home. Hold off & this will go to auction in 6-10 months.
need input on greenport new jersey what kind of a town?
greenpond , sorry
freedy,Up my way, rural (in the woods),schools eeh not bad not great,no crime to speak of,population white bread(wasps & european decent),taxes depends on what you buy. Now what I don’t know is if they have a white trash problem there (I would venture not as I never heard anything negative).
Just made a call sil has friends there,mix of larger homes with some old bugalows built back when by lake. People sold big house on Lake (kids gone)stayed in town bought smaller home inland if that tells you anything. 1 way in 1 way out, not good. Depends on what you like I’m a city boy & I love up here. Good luck.
Well, it’s official. The Courier Times declares that Bucks and Montgomery County, PA home prices have actually appreciated slightly despite the economic recession. This is in the “Bucks Prices Rock Steady” story on the front page of Homes section in today’s paper, which they didn’t post online.
That house in Tewksbury on Laurel Mountain was supposed to be a tear down, of course, which is why the price went up to $1.7 mill. the rest of the street is in the 1.5 mill range, higher during the boom. however, this particular house does back up to the police/municipal works and overlooks the busiest road in town, as was stated above, so no matter how much blush is put on this pig it will always have major flaws. a small house across the street on a quarter acre sold earlier this year for 370k–not gutted but a definite fixer–so 299k isn’t bad as long as you don’t mind the neighbors and traffic. its also been in and out of contract a couple of times so there is some interest, i guess.
hi all_
anyone have an info on this house.
mls# #2541087.
Thanks
mls# #2541087 – 231 Denman Rd Cranford
listed 6/25/08 for $499.9k now at $469k
almost 6 months. 11 rooms 5 bed 1.5 baths backs to a school playground apparently
no previous mls records that i could find — go to the monmouth county tax records for any past history
–type ‘new jersey tax records’ (not in quotes) into google to get there
grim – just sent u some mail!
415, those balance transfers add 3% to the amount your transfer on most every card I have seen. So in reality will cost you 3% for the year, not bad though
Some come without balance transfer fees, you have to read the fine print to find out though.
On the issue of taking out cash and depositing it in another account be careful because cash withdraws start accruing interest right away instead of after a 30 day “grace” period. You could lose your profit just on that alone.
Yes, I have put away 2-3 weeks of stuff for just incase because I think that the possibility of short term shortages in 2009 has increased. My wife agrees. Rice, canned goods, toilet paper, frozen meat. Water isn’t something that is all that too scarce in the USA so I’m not storing bottled water.
If you think about shipping comming to a halt for a period of time, or domestic unrest keeping you from going to the grocery store safely, you want to keep something on hand so that you have the option of watching it on TV instead of being a part of it.
I have never been in the armageddon camp and I do feel odd betting on supply chain disturbances.
What a joke.
We’re going to this open house today
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?loc=Newtown%2cPA&mnp=575000&mxp=625000&bd=5&sid=7cedd8711440453881e4da6b7a750cca&lid=1105232410&lsn=2&srcnt=6
After making nice with the realtor, i will ask: The house next door (302) had 3.5 baths and is about the same size (maybe slightly larger) and sold in Oct 2006 for 600k (thank you, zillow).
please, explain this to us.
The human toll of this economic crash is being greatly underestimated. it is this sort of imaage, the government handing billions to banks while the litte people go without that will cause social unrest.
Corporate Failures Hit Health Plans for Workers
When Archway & Mother’s Cookie Co. told employees in an October letter it would “go out of business immediately,” some workers frantically sought medical care while they believed their insurance would still cover the costs. In Ashland, Ohio, a pregnant employee had labor induced before her due date. Another worker bought a $6,000 insulin pump for her diabetic daughter. “I called my doctor at home and said, ‘I need to have my gallbladder removed this weekend,’ ” recalls Janet Esbenshade, a 37-year-old mother of two who lost her job packing cookies. Those employees and many others ended up saddled with huge medical bills anyway.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122852525037084565.html
And actions such as this will only catalize the growing unrest
Property-tax collections climb as home prices fall
Property taxes are rising across the USA despite the steepest drop in home values since the Great Depression. Home values dropped 17% in the third quarter compared with the same period in 2007, reports the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. At the same time, property tax collections across the USA rose 3.1%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. State and local governments are on track to collect more than $400 billion in property taxes this year, the most ever. One reason: Laws in most states that prevent big tax hikes when property values soar also block big tax drops when values sink.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/taxes/2008-12-03-proptax_N.htm
did someone mention unrest????
Angry laid-off workers occupy factory in Chicago
Workers laid off from their jobs at a Chicago factory have occupied the building and are demanding assurances they’ll get severance and vacation pay that they say they are owed. About 200 employees of Republic Windows and Doors began staging the sit-in in shifts this week after learning the plant was closing Friday.
Leah Fried, an organizer with the United Electrical Workers, says Republic failed to give 60 days’ notice required by law. Chicago police spokeswoman Laura Kubiak says police are aware of the situation and are patrolling the area. Representatives of Republic Windows did not immediately respond Saturday to calls and e-mails seeking comment.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081206/workers_takeover.html
Unretired: Retirees are Back, Looking for Work
They saved. They planned. Then housing tanked and the markets melted. Now they need jobs, and there aren’t any. Six years ago, Paul Nelson gave up his long career in the defense industry for what he thought would be a peaceful retirement in Tucson. The weather was mild, the neighbors friendly. He had plenty of time to volunteer and garden.
But retirement hasn’t worked out the way he planned. In 2006 his wife of 46 years died unexpectedly. He tried to swap their house for a smaller one and lost a chunk of his retirement savings in the process. Then this year the stock market cratered, wiping out almost everything he had left. Now the 71-year-old is looking for work at local hardware stores and Home Depot and contemplating filing for personal bankruptcy. “I have nothing left,” says Nelson, a former Raytheon engineer. “I am not alone, I think.”
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_50/b4112046151127.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily
Riots you say?
http://tvnz.co.nz/view/page/1320238/2362915
The shooting of a 15 year old may have sparked more riots in Greece, it seems the Regualar media in the USA is not putting these riots into context.
re: #446 kettle1 “the stock market cratered, wiping out almost everything he had left.”
No mention of who his financial advisor was? This man was retired yet he had everything in equities, bad advise whomever he relied upon for financial planning.
Reminds me of my dear old mother, if I was not keeping an eye on what see was doing her financial advisor would have her going long on emerging markets.
This is going to get much much worse, there are all ot of retired people loaded up in equities, substantial amounts of their nest egg, I don’t have stats but I would bet most of them were steered into 60%-70% equities.
Good to ask the realtor tough questions. Make ’em squirm. I finally got a realtor to admit last week that his $459K Yardley boro cape was “maybe too high.”
Priceless.
Sean,
I agree, tat is why i have said that retirees will be the great american humanitarian crisis. The old out number the young in the US and the amount of medical care they require is huge. They are about to loose their retirements and access to medical care enmass.
How are granpa joe and gannie wilma going to get their blood pressure meds, heart meds, diabetes meds, etc. once their retirement disappears? there will still be medical care available but no where near the current level.
The only apparent immediate solution is for families to return to multigenerational homes. But are we prepared for that?
[441] Nick
If you think of it simply as expanding your pantry then it isn’t that farfetched. Remember, you will use these items, so keeping a larger supply on hand than you might otherwise is hardly subscribing to armageddon. In fact, it may be beneficial because you make less trips to the store, less gas used, less stress, easier meal prep., etc.
Stockpiling for a year, maybe, but for supply disruptions, not so much.
Nom,
Hmmm, so that 5 year supply of feeze dried foods i just stockpiled in the former missile silo i recently bought, might be overkill?
[423] alia,
Sounds like another good candidate for the NJREReport Compound.
Nom,
keep this up and maybe we buy a small village?
[452] Kettle
(as I clean spray off my computer screen)
Perhaps. Not so much the food, but the silo.
But wish I had bought the old control site bunker overlooking Amherst. Place sold for about 400K a couple of decades ago, and by today’s standards, that is a steal (especially since Amherst is in some beautiful country).
[454] Ket
That’s the idea, isn’t it? Get enough acreage to have the working farm, and eventually let folks build on thier own parcels within.
Kinda like Covington from “The Village” but without the monster myth.
nom,\
blue print for the compund?
http://www.forbes.com/2006/09/18/life_re_lx_lr_0919featslide_3.html?thisSpeed=20000
457 – Kettle,
I wish!!!! Too bad a few hundred hectares of open farmland and vineyards don’t come with it.
was joking about the food and silo. just to be clear. I do have about 1 months of normal food consumption, could be pushed to 2+ if really needed.
and you are right, it all stuff that we normally use, so its not a separate or special effort. kinda nice knowing you dont have ot run to the store because you ran out of X when you really want/need it.
Nom,
so what do you think, about 1000+ acres
careful, nom,
you are on your way to setting up your own little fiefdom
Kettle1 – A multigenerational home is fine with me if it is large enough, we could all use the extra help with kids and cleaning. :)
I was on a cruise ship and struck up this discussion with several retired people who where living the dream of retirement and cruising the world. Many were heavily invested in equities to support that lifestyle and were losing their shirts and some were POed that they would have to cut back, this was late September when the markets dumped a few thousand points.
Others were more enterprising and continued working in their own businesses that allowed them to be retired such as owning rental units.
kettle1 Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
was joking about the food and silo. just to be clear. I do have about 1 months of normal food consumption, could be pushed to 2+ if really needed.
can i ask what you have that could carry you for a month? that’s a lot of canned goods, man. three meals a day?
Best place for a compound would be Northern California. Some of these little towns are already setup like compounds, with two growing seasons there you can have tomatoes growing continually from Feb thru December and wine twice a year as well.
http://www.thefarm.org/museum/communes.html
Yikes,
You might have to redefine what you consider “well-fed” to include 1 cup of rice per day and a few oz of meat.
…if really needed.
#441 It’s a good idea to have extra supplies. All of what’s in our grocery stores is delivered there by truck. Now imagine a bad flu epidemic where 25-30% of the truck drivers are out sick. It doesn’t have to be a bad strain, just widespread. The just in time supply chain is in trouble immediately and spot shortages would occur.
Grim – Or someone else with GSMLS access – Has 49 Christopher in Montclair been relisted? There’s a new realtor sign out front, but I can’t find the listing on GSMLS. Last LP was 499k.
Thanks.
Hat tip to Bloggers from the Boston Globe.
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2008/12/07/so_you_want_to_save_the_economy/
[461] Kettle,
Though I look nothing like Will Patton, I kinda see myself as General Bethlehem, he who said that America was dead and that we were in a feudal society.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Postman_(film)
[464] Sean,
Good thought, but NoCal fails the screen on several criteria:
1. No demonstrated recreational potential
2. No proximity for east coast owners
3. HIgh level of taxation and potential taxation
4. High potential for anti-gun, anti-self-defense legislation.
If the idea took off, then branching into other states (or countries) is a possibility. In fact, the longer term compound plan (phase B, if you will) involves a foreign corporation that will own/manage sanctuary property in other countries, and lend $$$ to the U.S. compound, permitting expatriation of income to offshore havens and letting U.S. owners recover their investments.
O’bama should take away McCain’s and Liberman’s passport ASAP.
http://www.hindu.com/2008/12/07/stories/2008120757500100.htm
Grim – Or someone else with GSMLS access – Has 49 Christopher in Montclair been relisted?
Not relisted on GSMLS, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t for sale. Could be an office exclusive
Thanks Ruggles!
yikes Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
The easiest and cheapest thing to do is take a new credit card with a 0% transaction fee and a 0% interest rate to at least the end of 2009, and use it to balance transfer off of your main charge card. So the act of creating the loan is completely costless.
Example:
(1) Main charge card is used for $5,000 of charging a month.
(2) Obtain new 0%/0% card with $35,000 line.
(3) Balance transfer $20,000 from your main charge card, so 0%/0% card is only drawn 55% or so.
(4) Main charge card will have credit balance of $20,000CR, which can be used up in 4 months.
(5) Alternatively, call the main charge card and say that you accidently balance transfer to this account, and could they please cut you a check for $20,000. They will be pissed, but they will do it. It might take 2-4 weeks. Take check and invest/deposit in bank.
This is bananas. Has anyone successfully pulled this off?
yikes: absolutely….I’ve done it maybe 6 times in the last 10-12 years.
Stu Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 10:05 pm
The 0% credit card option is a complete waste of time. Especially now that the banks have chosen to collude on credit-card related information. If you are carrying a large balance and have good enough credit to get the 0%, then great! Otherwise stay far away. Every time you open a new credit card, your credit rating takes a hit. And where are you planning on investing this $20K that is secure enough to counter the 30% interest rate that you will have to pay the CC company back at if you somehow lose the nut. These AORs (App-O-Ramas) have been taking place for years and lots of people lose on ‘em. Check the forums at fatwallet.com to hear the horror stories.
Stu: I’ve been one of the 0% guys. However, I am compulsive about how I run my accounts. Pretty much every car I’ve purchased I have used this method. Probably my favorite was going to a place in Tenafly at about 2:30PM to bargain for a car on a Oct 26-27 about 2001 or 2002, something like that with the needed cash sitting in the bank, but it was the CC bank’s money…..I went back and forth with the guy and I said….my bank is a block from here, but it is closing at 3PM. If I get this price…something like $14,500 or so, I will get a cashiers’ check for the entire amount right now and I will take delivery before the 31st. Done.
checking fat wallet now…never been there….
RE 476:
Fatwallet.com and slickdeals.net are sites to live by. Have been on both for a year and change now and haven’t paid retail for anything since. I would rate slickdeals.net as the better of the two though, the hot deals forum is where it’s at.
Frugal is the new sexy baby.
hi there!
I made with photoshop anime myspace banners.
take a look at them:
http://tinyurl.com/5wmgpn
Thanks a lot for your website ;-) xoxoxo
I got a cash advance, it was so easy. I was approved for 200.00 in 15 minutes and the best part, they didn’tpull my credit.
But even the seven- …
It creates the zombie finance phenomenon. arizona health insurance
Whence cometh this dumb money? GDP, the highest in the world. texas homeowners insurance