From the AP:
Existing home sales sink by 8.6 percent in November, as prices plunge a record 13.2 percent
A real estate group says sales of existing homes plummeted far more than expected last month as buyers reeled from October’s big plunge on Wall Street. The median sales price fell by the largest amount on record.
The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday that sales of existing homes fell 8.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.49 million in November, from a downwardly revised pace of 4.91 million in October.
Sales had been expected to fall to a pace of 4.9 million units. according to Thomson Reuters.
The median sales price plunged 13.2 percent in November to $181,300, from $208,000 a year ago. That was the lowest price since February 2004 and the biggest year-over-year drop on records going back to 1968.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall 8.6% in November to 4.49 Mln Rate
Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. fell more than forecast in November and prices dropped by the most on record, indicating the real estate slump will extend into a fourth year and worsen the recession.
Purchases declined 8.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.49 million, from a 4.91 million rate in October that was less than previously estimated, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median price dropped 13.2 percent from a year earlier, the biggest decline since records started in 1968. Separately, the Commerce Department reported today that new-home sales fell 2.9 percent last month.
Prices will plunge further as job losses sap demand, foreclosures add to the property glut and prospective buyers get turned away by mortgage lenders. The Federal Reserve this month cut its benchmark interest rate target to as low as zero and said it would take more steps to ease borrowing as the longest postwar recession looms.
“Foreclosures are prolonging the declines in home prices,” Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse Holdings in New York, said before the report. “Increasing unemployment is a continued impediment to housing.”
Resales were forecast to fall to a 4.93 million annual rate from an originally reported 4.98 million in October, according to the median estimate of 63 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from 3.98 million to 5.2 million.
Sales dropped 10.6 percent compared with a year earlier. Resales averaged 5.67 million in 2007 and before today’s report, fluctuated around a 4.96 million rate this year.
The number of previously-owned unsold homes on the market at the end of November represented 11.2 months’ worth at the current sales pace, up from 10.3 months’ at the end of the prior month.
…
The median price of an existing home fell to $181,300, and the percentage drop from a year ago was “probably the largest price decline since the Great Depression,” although records don’t go back that far, said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.Foreclosures and short sales accounted for 45 percent of last month’s home purchases, Yun said.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Nov. existing home sales fall 8.6% to 4.49 mln units
With plummeting prices, resales of U.S. single-family homes and condos dropped 8.6% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.49 million, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. Resales are down 10.6% in the past year. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected sales to fall to an annual rate of 4.9 million. In the past year the median sales price fell 13.2% — the largest decline since data collection began in 1968 and likely since the Great Depression — to $181,300. The inventory of unsold homes on the market rose 0.1% to 4.2 million, an 11.2 month supply at the current sales pace. NAR attributed November’s poor results to the weak stock market, job losses and low consumer confidence.
From MarketWatch:
U.S Nov. new home sales down 2.9% to 407,000
U.S. new home sales fell to their lowest level in over 17 years in November, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday. New home sales fell 2.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 407,000. This is the lowest level since 401,000 in January 1991. New home sales are 35.3% below their level in November 2007. The drop was slightly above the 400,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. New-home sales in October were revised to a 419,000 level compared with the previous estimate of 433,000. The months’ supply of homes on the market fell slightly to 11.5 months in November from 11.8 months in October. Median sales prices have fallen 11.5% in the past year to $220,400.
From Reuters:
November home sales fall 2.9 percent
ales of newly built single-family homes slowed in November to the weakest levels since 1991, according to Commerce Department data on Tuesday that offered fresh evidence of housing market distress.
The seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 407,000 was down 2.9 percent from October and was the lowest rate since January, 1991.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales would notch a 420,000 rate compared with a downwardly revised 419,000 in October, previously reported as 433,000.
The median sales price rose to $220,400 from $214,600 in October. The median marks the half-way point, with half of all houses sold above that level and half below.
Frist?
NYC Homeless numbers hit 25yr high.
http://www.wcbs880.com/NYC-Homeless-Number-Hits-25-Year-High/3544953
Grim – If you had to guess, what would you say are the chances we see mortgage principal write-downs in 2009 or 2010?
And in your humble opinion, will we see mortgage rates dip below 4.5 in 2009 or 2010?
i’ll hang up now.
Grim – If you had to guess, what would you say are the chances we see mortgage principal write-downs in 2009 or 2010?
Very likely, but I don’t believe they’ll have much of an effect on recidivism rates. A good number of these borrowers weren’t looking to become homeowners, they were looking to become rich, a big difference. How much would you pay each month for an unattainable goal?
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/12/21/RETV14OCEK.DTL
Lenders can modify loans before delinquency – SF Chronicle 12-21
“Here’s some good news for homeowners facing tough financial times. You no longer have to miss two to three months of payments before your mortgage company can modify your unaffordable loan terms.”
According to this article,
“starting immediately, Fannie Mae – the mortgage giant with an estimated 18 million home loans in its portfolio or in mortgage bond pools it guarantees, will allow borrowers who face imminent financial difficulties to request loan alterations, even if they’ve never been late.”
I could envision write-downs for the lowest income groups. After all, you can’t get a tax cut if you’re already not paying taxes. And the houses are probably in sub-prime neighborhoods that saw little to no turnover during the bubble. Hard to imagine debt forgiveness if you’re middle class or better though.
“PRINCETON – Gov. Corzine will start 2009 focused on the same issues that consumed much of 2008: solving New Jersey’s budget problems and weathering the national financial crisis.
Corzine said yesterday that he expected to detail hundreds of millions of dollars in additional spending cuts shortly after the new year to help the state cover a projected $1.2 billion shortfall in the budget that runs through June 30.”
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/local/20081223_Corzine__No_easy_fix_to_N_J__s_financial_woes_in__09.html
grim says:
December 23, 2008 at 7:09 am
Grim – If you had to guess, what would you say are the chances we see mortgage principal write-downs in 2009 or 2010?
Very likely, but I don’t believe they’ll have much of an effect on recidivism rates. A good number of these borrowers weren’t looking to become homeowners, they were looking to become rich, a big difference. How much would you pay each month for an unattainable goal?
Interesting. As a potential buyer (we had an offer accepted, kind of have them by the short curlies heading into the inspection because they have already purchased another place), i’d be crushed if my neighbor got a write-down in principle.
there are so many implications to consider – taxes, value of house for tapping equity, etc.
are you mentioning this to your potential buyers?
With all the price reductions, there may already be enough affordable housing.
“TRENTON – Gov. Corzine cast doubt yesterday on the prospects for delaying the Dec. 31 deadline for towns to provide their affordable-housing plans.”
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/local/20081223_Affordable-housing_deadline_may_stand.html
In related news, state legislators want to allow casinos to operate 26 hours a day to fill government coffers faster. (Snark off)
“Keep Atlantic City casinos open longer in shutdown, Republicans say.”
TRENTON – Some state Republicans are so convinced this year’s budget season will be rough that they recently introduced legislation that would keep casinos open for as many as 60 days after a state government shutdown.
Bill sponsors Assemblymen Vince Polistina and John Amodeo, both R-Atlantic, said they are concerned that differences over as much as $4 billion in budget cuts could close state government well past the seven days casinos currently can self-regulate.
Their measure essentially would allow casinos and racetracks to self-regulate on the slim chance a government shutdown lasts the entire summer.
http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/180/story/350598.html
DL (9)-
This may be the point at which the revolt against Trenton begins.
I think my township is submitting a Xerox of some 300-lb guy’s naked butt as their plan.
“Pa. Banking Department Announces New Mortgage Rules.
The Pennsylvania Banking Department has announced new rules for the mortgage industry. Pennsylvania Banking Department spokesman Dan Egan says one of the new regulations, which take effect in March, will restrict low and no-documentation loans in which applicants don’t have to verify relevant financial information.
http://www.kyw1060.com/pages/3544366.php?contentType=4&contentId=3255021
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122998208060227699.html
Recession Slows Migration in U.S. WSJ
“The recession and housing bust have slowed migration throughout the U.S., keeping more Americans in place, according to the Census Bureau data released Monday.”
“Such states as New York, Massachusetts and New Jersey are holding onto more of their residents, while some of the Sun Belt states accustomed to attracting new arrivals are seeing fewer.”
This explains a lot to me. We have folks moving out and taking whatever they can get for their places. You must have many more retrenched home owners there…they are simply going to stay put.
Grim: 10 in mod. Not sure why but it’s OT anyway; just delete.
11- As usual, Pennsylvania’s on top of things. Now if only they could fix their roads.
Can Atlantic City be far behind?
“Macau’s Venetian, a massive hotel and casino complex billed as the cornerstone of a new Las Vegas-style strip, has cut the weekly working week for its casino workers, and laid off 500 staff, the firm said in a statement. Last month, the US-based firm said it was firing up to 11,000 mainly construction staff as it halted work at a new 6,400-room resort close to the Venetian.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081223/bs_afp/financeeconomymacauusgamingsands
@12 – It also said:
“New York, Massechusetts, New Jersey and Connecticut had much higher growth rates last year then they did during the housing boom earlier in the decade. Nevada and Arizona, which over the past few years vied to be the nation’s fastest-growing state, saw their rates of growth decrease.”
So in these over-built areas, where folks are leaving – the prices are taking a nose dive. There (so the article says) you folks are seeing an influx of residents – probably helping to hold the prices up.
“We have folks moving out and taking whatever they can get for their places.”
They’ll look back in 2 years and sing, Glory Days.
Who is this savior, taxpayer? Are they similar to the bond vigilantes?
“Two British bank giants, HBOS and Royal Bank of Scotland, were on the verge of collapse in the second week of October, the BBC’s Panorama has revealed.”
“There was very little time. The government was announcing the terms on which it was prepared to come in and the banks had to think about it but they broadly had to accept it,” the deputy governor of the Bank of England, Sir John Gieve told BBC business editor Robert Peston.
“We had done some sums and between us we’d come up with what we thought was necessary and really there was only one provider [the taxpayer].”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7796329.stm
http://www.theherald.co.uk/business/news/display.var.2477306.0.Builder_sees_signs_of_recovery_in_housing_market.php
Builder sees signs of recovery in housing market..
HSBC pledges to increase the amount of money it lends to Britons for mortgages by 20% by next year.
They also have some sort of 75% now – 25% later deal going on..
From Bloomberg:
Moorlach Sees Up to 10 Municipal Bankruptcies in Coming Year
The accountant who predicted the nation’s largest municipal bankruptcy says as many as 10 insolvencies will roil the $2.7 trillion U.S. market for state, county and city debt next year as public finances worsen amid calls for federal aid to state and local governments.
John Moorlach said in 1994 that Orange County, California’s leveraged investing strategy could wreck its finances. The county went bankrupt about six months later after losing $1.6 billion.
As many as four cities in the Golden State and six others nationwide may seek court protection from creditors next year under Chapter 9 of the bankruptcy code, the section devoted to municipal governments, Moorlach said in an interview.
“The total could be higher,” said Moorlach, 53, now chairman of the Orange County Board of Supervisors. He didn’t name any cities outside California, which has seen the cost of insuring state debt against default more than quadruple since September. He said his estimate was based on general economic conditions.
From the Herald News:
County in the Top 10 for taxes
David Letterman couldn’t make a North Jersey homeowner laugh at this Top 10 list.
Passaic, Bergen and Morris all ranked in the nation’s Top 10 counties with the highest median property taxes, according to recently released study by the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan nonprofit organization in Washington, D.C., that monitors tax policy.
The top 14 counties on the list were all in the New York metropolitan area, topped by Westchester (N.Y.) County with a median property tax bill of $7,908.
Bergen County’s median property tax bill of $7,370 garnered the county fourth place on the list, while Passaic County was listed 10th with a median tax bill of $6,673.
Gerald Prante, a Tax Foundation economist, said the study was done to allow homeowners to compare their costs with the services they are getting from local school districts, municipalities and counties.
“Every locality has a bundle of services they receive and taxes they’re paying for those services,” Prante said. “Some may view it as a great deal they’re getting.”
The report followed the foundation’s study released earlier this year that ranked Passaic County’s property taxes as the highest in the nation when considered as a percentage of income.
In other words, Passaic County homeowners take the biggest chunk out of their paychecks — 8.2 percent — to pay property taxes. That means a homeowner at the county’s median household income of $81,684 pays $6,698.
Bergen County homeowners pay 7.5 percent of their income to property taxes, according to the same study. A homeowner earning the county’s median household income of $98,060 pays $7,354.50.
@ 20
“Miller Homes says the closing weeks of 2008 have seen a definate increase in sales rates, much of which the business attributes to its MiWay scheme, where buyers pay 75% now and 25% later.”
“Scheme” – now that’s an appropriate word…
Scheme it is, 25% shared appreciation mortgage with a balloon due at year 10.
i can never understand those blokes from India… whew… I just hope they understand me.
SAS
Top 20 Counties in Median Real Estate Taxes Paid
2005-2007 Average
County
State
Median Real Estate Tax Paid
Rank
Westchester County
New York
$7,908
1
Nassau County
New York
7,726
2
Hunterdon County
New Jersey
7,708
3
Bergen County
New Jersey
7,370
4
Somerset County
New Jersey
7,201
5
Essex County
New Jersey
7,149
6
Rockland County
New York
7,066
7
Morris County
New Jersey
6,977
8
Union County
New Jersey
6,727
9
Passaic County
New Jersey
6,673
10
Putnam County
New York
6,553
11
Suffolk County
New York
6,502
12
Monmouth County
New Jersey
6,360
13
Hudson County
New Jersey
5,865
14
Lake County
Illinois
5,790
15
Fairfield County
Connecticut
5,694
16
Sussex County
New Jersey
5,677
17
Middlesex County
New Jersey
5,575
18
Mercer County
New Jersey
5,457
19
Warren County
New Jersey
5,228
20
Free Market Capitalism at its finest!
CIT to receive TARP money
Troubled bank gets preliminary OK for $2.3 billion of public cash
Sam Mamudi
MARKETWATCH — 25 MINUTES AGO
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Add another name to the list of companies taking government investments.
On Tuesday Utah-based CIT Group Inc. said it has received preliminary approval for about $2.33 billion as part of the Treasury Department’s Troubled Assets Relief Program. (TARP)
CIT also said that it has changed its status after it the commissioner of the Utah Department of Financial Institutions approved its application to convert from a Utah-chartered industrial bank to a Utah-chartered bank.
The news sent CIT shares up 12%, to $4.72.
SAS (25) Good Luck – In college, I had a linguistics teacher from India – passed by the skin of my teeth…Couldn’t understand half of what transpired.
https://www.theasianbanker.com/A556C5/Update.nsf/0/15C604DF6B2171BF4825752200158D53?OpenDocument
Citi opens for business in Central China
“Couldn’t understand half of what transpired”
i know, thats the scary part.
we will talking about some serious issues. I just hope I don’t have to fly out there. I hate getting on planes these days.
SAS
i hope you blokes are planning how to make your “victory garden” come spring.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victory_garden
SAS
I just remembered, I gotta goto the meatpacking district and pick up my wife’s xmas present. yikes! I better hurry up.
I may have to cut these India fellows short.
SAS
does anyone know if the “construction to perm loan” still exists? if so, how tough have those guidelines become? i remember not too long ago indymac was giving these loans out with just 5% of the total estimated loan amount.
what would you say are the chances we see mortgage principal write-downs in 2009 or 2010?…will we see mortgage rates dip below 4.5 in 2009 or 2010?
While we’ll probably see both, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a massive move to 4.5% interest rates is used as the primary policy tool. This would be easier to implement on a large scale basis than one-off write downs.
This is the next bubble, banks are issuing FDIC bonds left and right at crazy rates. Heck SOV just did a 2.5% offering yesterday at 2.5% and that is taxable, someone earning 200K a year who lives in NYC that is a after tax return of 1.5% locked in for 4 years. Even crazier they are now going to do mutual funds that only invest in FDIC backed bank bonds which would knock another 10 BPs in fees. Who is buying this junk! Sov alone did almost 2 billion of this stuff in the last week. Lots of people are going to get burnt playing it safe.
On December 22, 2008, Sovereign Bank, a federal savings bank (the “Bank”) and wholly-owned subsidiary of Sovereign Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) issued $1,350,000,000 of 2.75% Senior Notes Due 2012 (the “Bank Notes”). The Bank Notes are guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (the “FDIC”) under the FDIC’s Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program established pursuant to 12 C.F.R. part 370 (the “Guarantee Program”).
The Bank Notes were issued pursuant to a Fiscal Agency Agreement dated December 22, 2008 between the Bank and The Bank of New York Mellon Trust Company, N.A., as fiscal agent (the “Bank Agency Agreement”). The Bank Notes were issued in the form of global notes, the form of which is included as Exhibit A to the Bank Agency Agreement attached as Exhibit 4.1 hereto. Interest on the Bank Notes is payable from December 22, 2008 to maturity on January 17, 2012 on each January 17 and July 17 commencing July 17, 2009. The Bank Notes are not subject to redemption prior to maturity.
Issuance of FDIC Guaranteed Notes by Sovereign Bancorp, Inc.
On December 22, 2008, the Company issued $250,000,000 of 2.50% Senior Notes Due 2012 (the “Bancorp Notes”). The Bancorp Notes are guaranteed by the FDIC under the Guarantee Program.
“meatpacking district”
and no smart alecks, I didn’t get her pork chops for xmas.
I got a really great piece of art..oil on canvas. oh man..its beautiful. I can’t wait to hang it.
SAS
From the WSJ:
Regulator Let IndyMac Backdate Infusion
By MICHAEL M. PHILLIPS and JESSICA HOLZER
A senior bank regulator was removed from his job after being accused of helping mortgage lender IndyMac Bancorp alter its records so it appeared to be in better shape — weeks before it was seized by the government.
The Office of Thrift Supervision has reassigned its top West Coast official, Darrel Dochow, who was also a controversial figure in the regulatory lapses surrounding the savings-and-loan crisis of the late 1980s.
In a letter sent Monday to Sen. Charles Grassley, the senior Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, the Treasury Department’s inspector general wrote that the federal OTS allowed the bank to backdate records of capital infusions last spring. That leeway made IndyMac appear more solid than was actually the case, shortly before federal regulators seized the bank in July — at a cost of $8.9 billion to the government’s deposit-insurance fund.
The inspector general’s probe of oversight of IndyMac, once the nation’s 10th-largest mortgage lender, comes as the administration is under fire for allegedly failing to rein in banks, investment firms and others who were taking huge financial risks with subprime home loans and endangering the wider financial system.
“It seems to me the people responsible for the supervision aren’t doing the supervising,” Sen. Grassley said in an interview Monday. “They didn’t learn the lesson of 20 years ago, and some of the evidence that they didn’t learn that lesson is they have still got people around who made the same mistakes 20 years ago.”
say John,
you really want drink wine with ladies, put away the Capezios, and hang out with me for a night. I’ll show you how its done my friend :)
SAS
another sneaky NJ tax.
http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-12/1230010094118030.xml&coll=1
SAS (38): “I got a really great piece of art..oil on canvas. oh man..its beautiful. I can’t wait to hang it.”
Just try not to pull a Steve Wynn!
And for the winos here, bought a case of the Coastline cab Paso Robles 2006 yesterday. Was hesitant to buy the case without first tasting it, but the store owner said he can’t keep this stuff stocked. Unfortunately, I remember hearing the same thing about Zima about a decade back. ;)
Will sample it tonight with dinner at Fascino.
And for those cheapskates out there…$25 off a $50 purchase at CVS dot com with free shipping.
http://dealnews.com/CVS-com-25-off-50-for-Master-Card-holders-free-shipping/269900.html
Single family mortgages continue to deteriorate, from Freddie:
http://news.prnewswire.com/DisplayReleaseContent.aspx?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/12-23-2008/0004946307&EDATE=
Single Family Total Delinquencies
Nov 2007 0.60%
Dec 0.65%
Jan 2008 0.71%
Feb 0.74%
Mar 0.77%
Apr 0.81%
May 0.86%
Jun 0.93%
Jul 1.01%
Aug 1.11%
Sep 1.22%
Oct 1.34%
Nov 1.52%
Finally, someone besides me (smithbarney) is realizing that when you jam people with 1% money markts they will move to high yielding instruments!
The $8 1/2 trillion-plus in personal sector short-term assets would ultimately “burn a
hole” once it became clear that short-term rates are not likely to recover any time
soon. Just as in the long-term Treasury market, supply in and of itself would not prop
up long-term rates so long as competition from other investment sectors was limited
or lacking. Relative to Treasuries, what was different in the muni market, we felt,
was that rather than being priced for concerns that long-term rates might rebound,
long-term munis were being priced as if potential buyers did not exist, at any
reasonable (or unreasonable) yield level. Finally, after the Fed actions and
statements, the long end of the muni market “got the message”: in an environment of
1% or lower short-term rates and inflation heading for 1% or below, 6%-plus yields
on good quality long-term munis made little sense. Yields as a percentage of
Treasury yields had become so distended as to make comparisons virtually
meaningless, but eye-popping nonetheless: On Thursday, long-term triple-A muni
yields as a percentage of Treasuries reached an astonishing 216%, versus the 84-86%
range as recently as the first half of 2007.
Barb (39):
I stopped moving around my EZ-pass account as the $1 a month charge kept following me around. After my 3rd change, I just stopped trying. NJ was first to institute it, then Pennsy and finally the Port Authority. This is where my account sits today.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Economy Shrank 0.5% Last Quarter, Most Since ’01
The U.S. economy shrank in the third quarter at a 0.5 percent annual pace as the now year-old recession began to intensify.
The contraction in gross domestic product from July through September, which matched the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey, was the worst since 2001, according to revised figures from the Commerce Department today in Washington. Consumer spending fell the most in almost three decades.
A lack of credit, declining home prices and cutbacks in consumer and business spending are projected to lead to an even deeper slump in the final three months of this year. President- elect Barack Obama and his economic team are working on a proposal for a stimulus package that could amount to about $850 billion to limit the damage and salvage or create 3 million jobs.
“All incoming information points to a far worse outcome in the fourth quarter,” Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts, said before the report. Gault projects the economy will shrink at about a 6 percent pace in the last three months of 2008.
#8 yikes: Mtg write downs and ever increasing property taxes are my 2 biggest fears as far as purchasing a house in NJ again.
Grim (41):
“Single family mortgages continue to deteriorate”
And the pace is accelerating. If unemployment rate doubles in 2009, I could only guess as to how high the foreclosure rate will become. It’s hard to plant a victory garden if you’re renting eh?
It’s hard to plant a victory garden if you’re renting eh?
I can grow coral in captivity eight thousand miles away from its native habitat but I kill tomatoes in NJ.
I rent a house and have a back yard. I suppose I could but what fun is farming if you can’t drive a combine?
Not to mention the fact that my local municipality would probably fine me if I dug up my yard and planted a few rows of corn.
My father, an NJ Beekeeper who lives a few blocks away, was ordered to remove his hives by the town.
Farming, it seems, is frowned upon in these parts.
#34 rent: Does 4.5 even matter any more? For those with good credit I am seeing rates quoted at 5%.
Yesterday there was chatter about 3% mtg rates!!!
Chatter about 3%? As of yesterday the best rates I heard quoted were 5% give or take an eighth with chatter about rates moving up in the short-term. If anything, the loudest chatter was whether or not refi candidates missed the bottom in rates.
#51 grim: Yesterday on CNBC they had a couple of talking heads on in the afternoon that were discussing as part of a stimulus plan by the next administration proposals that included 3% mtgs.
“It’s hard to plant a victory garden if you’re renting eh?”
then may should stock up on some food, maybe worth investing in a pantry and canning items, rather than have that money in the stock market and hope to hell that it goes.
Food and basic skills will be worth more in the future than the paper financials. (btw-i think that is my 3rd prediction now).
SAS
The rate that will save the market is always the current rate minus one.
Like that old saying, Free Beer Tomorrow.
Fed buying more agency paper today.
Grim, 48
Your dad is a beekeeper!!
Been specifically looking for land with a stream so that we can have hives/bees.
….more under the skin farming inoculation from my Cook College days..
WOW… has he always lived there? I wonder if he is the guy I took care of at Mountainside about 6 or so years ago who was telling me he raises bees….I have the paper with name and number… but, alas, never called.
sl
happy holidays all!!!!
rhymingrealtor,
Feel free to get my e-mail as well regarding asperger (autism) spectrum
cheers!
Rhyming Realtor,
just ask grim to pass your e-mail address along.
I read that a lot of leveraged and ultra options of ETFs have been halted today. Anyone know if this is true and why? Will TARP III cover the commercial REITs as I predicted? If so, the buying opportunity of the decade may be upon us when the Paulson announces it.
SAS 25
Its a learned ability.
Stu,
ex-date/disbursements?
Forget it. I think they are waiting to adjust the strike prices downward for the dividend distribution announced yesterday. SRS holders get $4.50 a share on New Year’s eve. Partay!
Yup… Thanks Grim.
I doubt Tarp III will cover commerical stuff, who cares. Rock Center went under, and 55 Water went under. Both are currently fully occupied and nicer than when the prior broke owners had them. Big deal, tenants got a new owner. Who cares. Heck if my building went under great, give us a chance to buy it or get a bettter lease.
Stu,
What do the ultra-longs get?
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — With plummeting prices, resales of U.S. single-family homes and condos dropped 8.6% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.49 million, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. Resales are down 10.6% in the past year. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected sales to fall to an annual rate of 4.9 million. In the past year the median sales price fell 13.2% — the largest decline since data collection began in 1968 and likely since the Great Depression — to $181,300. The inventory of unsold homes on the market rose 0.1% to 4.2 million, an 11.2 month supply at the current sales pace. NAR attributed November’s poor results to the
I doubt Tarp III will cover commerical stuff, who cares.
Agree, few jobs are lost when a REIT or commercial owner goes under. Billion dollar bailout to protect a name on a deed? Who cares is right.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Nov. existing home sales fall 8.6% to 4.49 mln units
U.S. Nov. new homes for sale down 35.3% from yr-ago
U.S Nov new-home sales weakest in 17 years
U.S. Nov. new-home sales down 2.9% to 407,000 pace
From CNBC:
Home Prices Fall in All Regions. Existing Home Sales Fall 8.6%, New Home Sales Down 2.9%
“Agree, few jobs are lost when a REIT or commercial owner goes under. Billion dollar bailout to protect a name on a deed? Who cares is right.”
I was thinking the same thing, but if we can bailout the IB’s then I can see us bailing out the REITs as well.
“U.S. Nov. new homes for sale down 35.3% from yr-ago”
But Frank will say there is no recession.
Kettle 56 – Did you get my email address? I emailed Grim the other day.
Sent it off this morning G, sorry for the delay.
[40] Stu
Don’t want to hear any gripes if you don’t like the Coastline. At $8.99 a bottle, it isn’t in your usual league, but folks seemed to like it.
Don’t worry Nom. If it’s not good to me, it will make nice gifts. Paid $103 with tax for the case at total win. Not bad for $8.58 with tax included per. Loading them into the wine cooler with the expensive ‘brews’, it appeared like I was dollar cost averaging down ;)
Existing home sales in the Northeast down 23.9% year over year (NSA), and down 12% from last month (SAAR).
Median home prices in the Northeast rock solid at -0.1% year over year, compared to double digit declines across all other regions.
Cindy (20)-
In the famous words of Wimpy: I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today…
“They also have some sort of 75% now – 25% later deal going on.”
Nom 74 – No worries. If we don’t like it, we can always gift it out ; ) I don’t even think we paid $8.99. S tu said they gave him a discount for buying a whole case. Total for 12 bottles came to $103 including tax.
#78 – Swear that I was thinking the same thing when I read Cindy’s post.
#74
Nom: must have missed the reco over the weekend. I’ll give it a try as well. Don’t worry, if I don’t like it, I’ll still drink it.
Thx
sas (32)-
What are you getting her, a side of beef?
grim says:
Problem is next year when severance runs out and there are no bonuses in jan 2009. Most laid off people I know took a zero hit to income in 2008. They got their Jan 2008 bonus and got let go in the second half of year with a few months severance. The severance checks run out early 2009 and no bonus if you are unemployed. Those BC houses will be on a fire sale soon if economy does not turn around by summer 2009
December 23, 2008 at 10:17 am
Existing home sales in the Northeast down 23.9% year over year (NSA), and down 12% from last month (SAAR).
Median home prices in the Northeast rock solid at -0.1% year over year, compared to double digit declines across all other regions.
Median home prices in the Northeast rock solid at -0.1% year over year, compared to double digit declines across all other regions.
Hmm I wonder if this number is real – I do see quite a bit of price drops…
Couls it be the effect grim discussed earlier – that a buyer who is set on comfortable price – just adjusts the quiality/size of home he wants to buy UP when prices go down ???
This way prices will saty the same…
Or is this -0.1% same houses sales?? (wait I guess you can not have same houses sales YoY, right?)
I know, that I have adjusted my list of towns I would buy in towards slightly better towns since 2006, my price did not drop…
grim (50)-
The sub-5% mortgages lasted less than 48 hours.
On Thursday of last week, everything repriced higher, and things have been stuck there ever since.
Why?
1. The rest of the world is dumping agency paper and moving to USTs.
2. Banks are hoarding/don’t want to lend. Documentation and minimum FICO requirements have been ratcheted up another notch.
[77] gator
That’s about right. Total gives you a 10% discount for a case; stu probably got the same.
[79] Doyle,
Yeah, sorry, I put the name up on Sunday (wasn’t near a computer on Sat.) and folks seemed to jump on it. If you don’t find it, don’t think you are missing out—it’s a good wine, and great for the $$$, but nothing worth killing over.
While in Altoona, went to a Wal Mart for the first time in, well, forever it seems, because I had a very ecletic shopping list. Felt very redneck because I was buying motor oil, rifle ammunition, Christmas cards, and some assorted other household needs.
Also found a cracked PCV line on the POS audi, which may explain the burning smell in the cabin from time to time. I think I will use the all-purpose tool to fix it. Duct Tape!!!
2. Banks are hoarding/don’t want to lend. Documentation and minimum FICO requirements have been ratcheted up another notch.
Heard this from a client yesterday, Wells Fargo told him he wouldn’t be getting the best rates unless he had a 740 fico.
Nom 85 – Power of the NJREREPORT. A few people sing it’s praises. You mention the name and all of a sudden they can’t keep it on the shelves. The manager even told Stu he didn’t understand why it was moving so fast.
In Gainesville we had a Wal-Mart that was open 24/7. It was very redneck to go there drunk on a Saturday night at 3AM.
question for the gang:
title search/insurance. anyone have success finding a good one cheaper than what a realtor hands you?
our quote on the good faith estimate is at: $2990, just wanted to poke around …
Someone asked about cost of Saudi oil yesterday. This is an old article but….
The cost of producing oil in Saudi Arabia has been the lowest in the world. In the 1950s, the net well-head cost of production was less than 7 US cents/barrel. In early 1990, the net well-head cost of production from 14 operating fields, with the Ghawar axis of fields taken as one unit, was
estimated to average between 50 and 63 cents/barrel. This was calculated on the basis of output then ranging from 5.38m b/d, which was Saudi Arabia’s OPEC quota for the first half of 1990, to 7.2m b/d. At present, the average of wellhead costs is a little over $1/barrel (95 cents/barrel in 1997), and experts predict higher costs in the coming years in view of declining reservoir pressure in some of the Ghawar fields. The wellhead cost in the Najd fields is relatively high, in view of technical problems encountered there in the past six years.
The estimates until early 1990 were used as a base in calculating the minimum per-unit capital cost of additional capacity for Saudi Aramco’s expansion programme. It was then indicated that, at additional capacity above 7.2m b/d, production costs would be considerably higher.
Total costs up to the loading of the crude oils for export, including Saudi Aramco’s administrative costs, piping and terminalling, are now said to average about $2/b (as in 1997), compared to almost $2.50/b in 1993. Costs were reduced as a result of reorganisation and cost-cutting measures since Saudi Aramco’s absorption of Samarec in the past eight years. Until 1987, total costs used to be over $2.50/b, due to high wages for US staff and various social programmes.
It might be possible to cut total unit costs to less than $1.80/b, the level estimated in the case of Iraq in early 1990. But the final outcome of further cost-cutting measures could be “lower quality personnel and inefficiency across the board”, as one Saudi Aramco official puts it.
“our quote on the good faith estimate is at: $2990, just wanted to poke around”
Welcome to the biggest ripoff around. I could easily swallow all of the other closing costs, but the title search was criminal.
yikes (88)-
Title fees are fixed by state gov’t and correspond to purchase prices.
However, some title companies are now discounting from those fixed rates. Shop around.
Frank, these folks went out to protest, despite the cold, what say you?
Iceland ‘Like Chernobyl’ as Meltdown Shows Anger Can Boil Over
It was the week before Christmas in Reykjavik, and all through the town Eva Hauksdottir led a band of 60 whistle-blowing, pan-banging, shouting demonstrators.
“Pay your own debts,” they yelled as they visited one bank office after another in Iceland’s capital. “Don’t make the children pay.”
…
“As people have their expectations changed radically, you can have protests come out of nowhere,” even in developed countries, Bremmer said.
…
“We’ll use our voices, and then if we have to we’ll use our hands, and maybe axes,” Hauksdottir says.
also – anyone else feel it is critical to have a structural engineer as an inspector?
looks like we’ll be closing on a house next month. we also set a new comp in the neighborhood, which could be a good or bad thing.
neighbor’s place – one more bathroom – sold for 600k in 2006. so we basically set them back 65k, meaning no equity for them until at least 2014
as usual clot, thanks.
Official says Calif. could be broke in 2 months
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081223/ap_on_re_us/california_budget
SACRAMENTO, Calif. – California’s chief financial officer warned Monday that the state would run out of money in about two months as hopes of a Christmas budget compromise melted into political finger-pointing by the end of the day.
Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger began the day on a cheerful note, suggesting that negotiations with Democratic leaders could lead to a budget deal as early as this week to help close the $42 billion shortfall that is projected through June 2010.
“Yesterday we sat there for hours and we worked through it step by step and we made some great progress,” the governor said during a morning news conference in Los Angeles. “So we feel like if we do that two more times like that, I think we can get there … before Christmas Eve or Christmas Day.”
Median home prices in the Northeast rock solid at -0.1% year over year, compared to double digit declines across all other regions.
Certainly explains how they came up with the pricing on this lovely home. Bought in 2004 for $899k and looking to sell now for $1.14 mil. 6.25% gain per year including ’06 to ’07 and ’07 to ’08 when everyone knows home prices continued to go up…
http://tinyurl.com/8npu46
Median home prices in the Northeast rock solid at -0.1% year over year.
Home Price to Income ratios are getting richer?
My final prediction is they will bring back a new version of Good Times, Yo JJ a little shout out in the house, DYN-NO-MITE.
Stu says:
December 23, 2008 at 9:08 am
Barb (39): I stopped moving around my EZ-pass account as the $1 a month charge kept following me around. After my 3rd change, I just stopped trying. NJ was first to institute it, then Pennsy and finally the Port Authority. This is where my account sits today.
Stu: you are an amazingly cheap MF’er….
grim says:
December 23, 2008 at 9:22 am
I can grow coral in captivity eight thousand miles away from its native habitat but I kill tomatoes in NJ.
grim: don’t start up with that coral s-it again – n’kay?
Final Final Prediction, Fredicks of Hollywood will sell a new line of foreplay toys in a co-branded marketing effort with Burger King that involves Onion Rings.
still_looking says:
December 23, 2008 at 9:41 am
Grim, 48 Your dad is a beekeeper!!
still: I say chip off the old block….is there really a big difference between being a bee-keeper and running a blog? same motivation – no?
Chifi 99 – Tell me about it…sigh…
nom: my stupid/offensive autism comment is actually scaring me now…..do I have a sixth sense?
The Federal Reserve has determined that new-car dealer floorplan loans are to be included in the government’s Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF, Automotive News reported Monday on its Web site. It had been unclear whether lenders could use TALF funds to finance dealers’ new car inventories. The decision will provide greater liquidity for dealers, said Andy Koblenz, vice president of legal and regulatory affairs for the National Automobile Dealers Association. The loans will be available through 2009.
NJGator says:
December 23, 2008 at 11:20 am
Chifi 99 – Tell me about it…sigh…
BOOOOOOOOOYAAA!!
Stu says:
December 23, 2008 at 9:53 am
I read that a lot of leveraged and ultra options of ETFs have been halted today. Anyone know if this is true and why? Will TARP III cover the commercial REITs as I predicted? If so, the buying opportunity of the decade may be upon us when the Paulson announces it.
Stu: maybe it is thin volumes…..
grim says:
December 23, 2008 at 10:01 am
Stu, What do the ultra-longs get?
grim: inserted in John’s a%%….
I really need to write a book ChiFi. I swear we save more than 50% off of our discretionary purchases than the average American, and the time it takes to achieve these savings are almost nil. One day, when you are my FA, I’ll share some of our secrets. We must have 40 active credit card accounts from their constant changing of benefits. The amount of junk mail we receive is astronomical!
yikes (93)-
No. The best home inspectors are the ones who have inspected lots of homes. A structural engineer may miss lots of items that don’t necessarily relate to his specialty.
Also, it’s good to make sure the inspector is a member of ASHI (the only trade group they have) and that he has E & O insurance.
TARP, TALF,
I think they should found a way to use BARF as one of the acronyms…
The amount of junk mail we receive is astronomical!
Invest in a woodburning stove, you can burn junk mail for heat in the winter.
Yum said home prices have fallen the most since the great depression. Now my Moms old home was built and sold in the great depression for 3,000, at peak it was worth 575K in 2005. Considering homes were only like 3K in the great depression even a 10% drop is only $300 bucks, 10% of 675K is over $67,000 dolloars!!
comrade nom deplume says:
December 23, 2008 at 10:36 am
Also found a cracked PCV line on the POS audi, which may explain the burning smell in the cabin from time to time. I think I will use the all-purpose tool to fix it. Duct Tape!!!
nom: Audi is in the shop yesterday…..10,000 misc things to do…..bill comes back $298!!!!????!!! These guys are unreal…..they are in Mendham, so it is a pain in the neck, but they savbe me $1500-$2000 a year on repairs. You can’t own a German car older than 3-4 years without these guys……note: they have zero polish…just nice low key guys that like to fix cars…..you have to push them to look at everything….
Europcar Service
“Median home prices in the Northeast rock solid at -0.1% year over year.”
With all the layoff talk, we are down 0.1%
You call this a housing recession???
Give me a break.
#92,
What I am going to protest? increasing home prices. Maybe I should protest this blog for spreading negative information.
I know a few couples who are very frustrated. They have been looking at houses for 2 years plus, and based on news, are expecting home prices to be falling rapidly. According to them, no such luck in NNJ, Western Essex or Eastern Morris.
“They also have some sort of 75% now – 25% later deal going on.”
Since housing is an illiquid asset don’t you have to sell it to determine the market value? We all know that appraisers are full of it.
Clotpoll says:
December 23, 2008 at 11:23 am
yikes (93)-
No. The best home inspectors are the ones who have inspected lots of homes. A structural engineer may miss lots of items that don’t necessarily relate to his specialty.
Also, it’s good to make sure the inspector is a member of ASHI (the only trade group they have) and that he has E & O insurance.
cool. i phrased it poorly – do you feel it is critical that they are also a structural engineer?
we have a couple good folks without that structural background … perhaps we’re being silly, but this is a 500k+ investment …
chifi, 99
ahem…we prefer the term frugal!
sl
Yikes,
I agree with making sure they are ASHI members. After that, make sure they have been inspecting homes for a long, long time. When the inspection takes place, go through with them and ask lots of questions. Just avoid asking them if they think the home is worth what you paid. They hate that and will never answer. Make sure they turn all faucets on and off, test all outlets, inspect the roof and all crawlspaces. Make sure he cranks the heat and the AC to check the HVAC systems. About the structural background. If the house has been standing for over 50 years, chances are that it will stand for another 50 more. Our house was over 80 years old when we bought it. When I started questioning him about the structure, he just laughed and said anything built before 1960 will last forever.
Final prediction for ’09:
Reality shows based on living in cars.
1. NBC- “We Live in Our Car”. Based on the same winning format as “The Biggest Loser”, actual homeless families living in their cars are subjected to various “challenges”, with the ultimate winner getting a 3/2 POS foreclosed ranch home in Vegas as the prize. Challenges include dumpster diving, cadging free showers at the YMCA, a McDonald’s drive-through “race” (hilarious!) and other inspirational and crowd-pleasing activities. In addition, a live cam placed in each contestant’s car will allow visitors logging on to nbc.com to watch them 24/7.
2. Bravo Network- “We Live in Our Benz”. The same team that developed smart, young, urban and trendy series such as “Top Chef” and “Project Runway” have assembled an attractive group of young, upwardly-mobile and freshly-homeless couples who move from penthouse to the their leased Benzes with nary a misstep. Featured challenges include: avoiding the repo man; getting into Le Bernardin having not showered for a week; picking up your friends in your new “home”; and, a hilarious “quick fire” fumigation contest when contestants’ deteriorating hygiene wreaks havoc in the cars.
122 moderated. Don’t know why.
Frugal, schmugal!
You can call me cheap all you want.
I’ll take my 13-year old Civic and an extra 2 or 3 vacations a year to driving a 5 series any year of my life.
danzud says:
December 23, 2008 at 11:24 am
I think they should found a way to use BARF as one of the acronyms…
“Banks Are Really F—-d” initiative…..
BARF:
Big
Ass
Refinance
Fraud
SRS suckers will pay big taxes.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/112076-proshares-short-etf-short-term-capital-gains-distributions?source=yahoo
How qualified of a PE is he if the only work he can get is inspecting houses? I’ve seen engineering firms called in to sign off on radical contemporaries before. A property in Morris comes to mind, basically built hanging off the side of a cliff. Significant amount of steel construction, anchoring in rock, etc. Engineers were brought in by the sellers, a smart move since buyers tended to get cold feet when walking the bridge to the front door.
Stu says:
December 23, 2008 at 11:54 am
Frugal, schmugal! You can call me cheap all you want. I’ll take my 13-year old Civic and an extra 2 or 3 vacations a year to driving a 5 series any year of my life.
Dude: I’m with you. I am still adjusting to this suburban mentality. I can’t deal with the idea that cars are anything other than a pure waste of money. I grew up with NO car. Then we adjusted to having the convenience of a car, but still having to park it on the street in Queens was a liability. I have never recovered. I keep NOTHING in the car. People are always shocked. The thing is clean always….AND not because I clean it.
Yikes, when I was looking at buying an investment property, a 4 unit brownstone in Hoboken, I hired an engineer that did commercial real estate inspections and he had was a structural engineer. Let me say this there were structural problems with the property that cost big money to fix because walls were removed by contractors without an engineer. He basically told me floors could collapse, I was glad I didn’t purchase the building. I doubt your run of the mill home inspector would have found this. The building could have had structural failure with a tenant in it and definitely needed in excess of 100k in various structural repairs. So if you have concerns like it is 150 year old building, by all means hire a structural engineer.
BARF:
Banks
Are
R (our)
Friends
great stuff guys, thx.
c*cksucker sellers are upset that we held out for our price, so they are taking the washer and dryer.
oh well.
now that we’ve “bought it” i can say that I’m pumped about 2-things – the California closet, which is massive and cool-looking – and the office. it’s set off the master bedroom. there are no doors on it, but i’ll put a pair of french double doors and it’ll look even better.
What are you getting her, a side of beef?
clot, 88
with ONIONS…creamed onions.
sl
Congrats!
Keep us in the loop as the closing date nears.
oops sorry 134 was for 81, no 88….
dang ‘rithmetic.
sl
Someone sent me an image of a rejection e-mail from eHarmony.com.
The text reads:
“Sorry.
Your application to join our match-making service has been rejected.
You failed question #14: ‘What do you like most in a woman?’
‘My Dick’ was not an acceptable answer.”
Sorry for OT post…
3b-
If you’re still in the market for an LCD TV, I just came across a good deal on a pretty good LG.
http://dealnews.com/LG-42-720-p-Widescreen-LCD-HDTV-for-698-free-shipping/269956.html
You can read some customer reviews at cnet dot com. Cnet editors didn’t review that exact model, but did review a sister model).
Sorry for OT post…
3b-
If you’re still in the market for an LCD TV, I just came across a good deal on a pretty good LG.
http://dealnews.com/LG-42-720-p-Widescreen-LCD-HDTV-for-698-free-shipping/269956.html
You can read some customer reviews at cnet dot com. Cnet editors didn’t review that exact model, but did review a sister model.
Sorry for the double post. The first post generated an error, so I didn’t think it went through.
thanks, grim. i feel kinda dopey reading all the doom and gloom here, and obviously we wont be happy if rates go to 3.5 or principle reductions happen. but for us, the move makes sense on a number of levels, none of which are worth going into.
anyone notice how when you’re renting, the quick fixes are all in the hundreds … but with the house you own, they are in the thousands?
* paint – few thousand
* if we want to recarpet (just the upstairs bedrooms) – couple thousand
* fence because we’ll have a pool – couple thousand
* washer/dryer – couple thousand
* alarm – thousand
* lawn mower (dont own one) and landscape – couple thousand
ownership. ugh.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
Did anyone post these R/E charts from Calculated Risk?
yikes (133)-
Demand that they wear spiked dog collars and gag balls to the closing.
Good luck!
sl (134)-
Urrrp…
[100] chifi
We tightwads prefer frugal. My wife called me cheap once. Then she realized that I could simply stop looking for deals and just stop looking.
[105] chifi
Do I sound like a shrink? I think that sixth sense is paranoia.
145 Nom – Don’t give Stu any ideas : P
#76 grim:Median home prices in the Northeast rock solid at -0.1% year over year,
Are you buying that?
congrats yikes –
they are taking the washer/dryer?
are they that petty? lol
Actually, vacations are the stupidest waste of money. My father-in-law insists he turns the tv on there is a picture of big ben, eiffel tower etc. I could travel half way around the world and spend thousands of dollars to go there and say wow it looks just like the picture. What is the point? Just a big waste of money and time. I actually like traveling, but hate paying for it. Takes the whole joy out of it. All I get are a few pictures and a bunch of bills. I would rather just speak at a conference at a place I want to go to and get comped. Same thing with expensive dinner in city, not as much fun going to peter luger with your wife if you get the bill .
Stu says:
December 23, 2008 at 11:54 am
Frugal, schmugal!
You can call me cheap all you want.
I’ll take my 13-year old Civic and an extra 2 or 3 vacations a year to driving a 5 series any year of my life.
#139 New: Thanks. I want the 1080, and I am going with your original suggestion of the Samsung, which I researched further over the last couple of days.
PC Richards has it for $950. I will be keeping it until the sun does not shine, so I will spend a little more.
Maybe they figured your wife makes you take care of the small loads by hand.
the crazy man in the corner says:
December 23, 2008 at 12:48 pm
congrats yikes –
they are taking the washer/dryer?
are they that petty? lol
#76 grim: Well if this financial melt down, wall street implosion, worst recession in 50 plus years does not bring housing prices down in the northeast, than I guess nothing will.
And this area really is different as well as this time being different. I still however, do not believe that.
The later they (prices) fall the further they fall.
crazy (148)-
That’s nothing. You should see the ones who take the lightbulbs, blinds and asswipe.
when we went to the 2nd look, their agent said “everything was negotiable.”
but they came down off 600k to 535k, and i suppose none-too-thrilled
128 Frank, RE ETF (SRS) Dividends, can you please explain why this is a bad thing? Unless anyone plans to hold one of these more than 1 yr, what’s the downside?
damn, you guys weren’t kidding about the 4.5 being gone.
guy quoted me at 4.5 last week … now we can’t get over 5.0 (770+ fico, 35% down, 0 CC debt).
bummer. guess we can hope for the best in the next three weeks.
Nurburgringer,
I think some of them paid out huge dividends today. I think one paid out 43$ per share, something like 40% of their value.
That dividend is paid to you and you have to pay gains on it.
I’m going to be out of town for the next week.
Happy Holidays to everyone.
From Bloomberg:
Madoff Fund Operator De La Villehuchet Found Dead in New York
Thierry Magon de La Villehuchet, who ran a fund that invested with Bernard Madoff, was found dead at his Madison Avenue office today, a New York City police officer at the scene said. The death appeared to be a suicide, he said.
De la Villehuchet, 65, was a founding partner and chief executive officer of Access International Advisors, according to a marketing document. Access invested $1.4 billion with Madoff, who was arrested on Dec. 11 for allegedly running a $50 billion Ponzi scheme.
Nic – sure, so I get a paid $4.5 per share on Dec 30th, total of which I’ll pay ST cap gains tax on. Since I never planned on holding SRS more than a year what difference does it make (other than perhaps not being able to offset ST cap losses)
Something eerily Orwellian about this Bloomberg headline:
American Express Wins Approval to Get $3.39 Billion in Capital Under TARP
Is “Win” really the right word here?
The guy I bought from was not happy with the deal I got, I had a better lawyer. However, I swear he is the devil himself and makes me feel creepy to even be on the phone with him. Anyhow guy I bought from, smeered poop and pub hairs on toliet seats, had dog crap on wall to wall carpet, did not give me alarm code and let rotten food in the fridge and cabinets. Dumkoof still had money in escrow so I hired merry maids to clean it all up and he paid the bill.
Grim, name brand companies investment grade bonds that were yielding over 10% two weeks ago have all but disappeared as one by one Uncle Sam makes that into a pseudo govt agency. Yes it is a win from Amex, their non TARP bond yields have dropped like a brick now that uncle sam is a gold card member.
3b – Big Screen
Just an FYI, but I went with a 46″ Panasonic 1080P at Costco for $949 w/ shipping included. Great deal and great TV. Same as a Panasonic PZ80U, but is costco’s version w/ a PC input. Some say to go w/ 720p because most won’t notice a difference on a 1080p under 50″ in size. I noticed a difference on side to side exact same models except for resolution and a bit higher contrast for a 42″ screen from 10 feet away. So I went with 1080p. Looking forward to getting the BluRay player. That looked amazing.
Yeah I know, I’m so mid 2000’s. I might as well buy a house at 2005 prices as well…
From the Star Ledger:
Officials try to stem foreclosure-based evictions
It’s illegal in New Jersey to evict a renter just because a property has been foreclosed upon.
But in this housing crisis, that isn’t stopping aggressive landlords and mortgage lenders from doing just that.
Now state officials and community activists are educating tenants and police about their rights to stem the foreclosure-related evictions. They’re also going after those who force tenants out on that basis.
Foreclosure is not grounds for eviction, and New Jersey law provides both civil and criminal penalties for violators.
New Jersey Tenants Association president Matt Shapiro says renters around the state are being wrongly told to leave their homes.
I posted some new charts you guys might find interesting.
So many people have been saying that low interest rates caused house prices to rise but that didn’t seem to be the case.
The data seems to indicate that in 2006, houses were overpriced by over 70%.
This time I didn’t just use house price to income ratios but I factored in what would be an affordable principle for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage with 20% down.
Hope you guys like it.
Just talked to 2 mortgage brokers. 30 year fixed rates touched 4.75% last Wed AM and were back up to 5.0% by noon. 4.5% 30 year fixed no points a very real possibiility after the holidays. Stay tuned.
The layoffs on Wall Street only started earlier this year. Those that didn’t find new jobs or went into new opportunities are probably eating through their savings. So those forced to sell are coming into the pipeline probably 6months – 1 year from their layoffs. With layoffs still happening right now, forced sellers will continue into mid 2009 at the least and into 2010. That’s only if Wall Street stops the bleeding now. Unfortunately I feel there will be another round of cuts from some of the big players.
How could 4.5% mortgages come and go in such a narrow window?
Just applied for the WellsFargo no cost refinance loan. They hold our current loan currently at 5.5%. We’ll see what is the best they can do for me.
I’m getting furious about the interest rate fixation that the industry has taken. I’d gladly pay 9% (and have done so) for a property where the purchase price reflected actual market value.
To overpay 150K *at a GREAT rate* ain’t gonna cut it.
Fed buys an additional $1.6b (par) of agency paper today:
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pomo/display/index.html
“How could 4.5% mortgages come and go in such a narrow window?”
They probably couldn’t handle the volume of unqualified applicants!
HousingWire reported yesterday that there may not be sufficient warehouse credit to handle the refi boom.
http://www.housingwire.com/2008/12/22/as-refis-swell-is-warehouse-credit-waning/
Other chatter was claiming that lenders were raising rates and standards having had their fill of low-rate refis.
NEW YORK (Reuters) – A French executive whose fund is reported to have lost large sums it invested with Wall Street adviser Bernard Madoff was found dead in New York City, police said on Tuesday.
Thierry Magon de la Villehuchet, 65, was pronounced dead at 8 a.m. at a Madison Avenue building in midtown Manhattan, New York City Medical Examiner spokeswoman Ellen Borakove said. He was co-founder of money manager Access International. She said the cause of death was not yet known.
New York City police said they were called to the building at 7.30 a.m.
Villehuchet had been trying to recover some of the funds lost to Madoff, whom U.S. prosecutors accuse of orchestrating a $50 billion fraud, Paris newspaper La Tribune reported on its website.
Don’t worry about 4.5% interest rates.
If the fed tries to keep up the notion that housing has corrected, they’ll need to have interest rates be half that this time next year.
Speaking of HousingWire:
Subprime, Alt-A Delinquencies Piling Up
Think of those highway pileups, where one car stops and 50 more cars behind it run into each other — that’s pretty much what appears to be taking place in the nation’s mortgage market, thanks to a growing trend towards foreclosure moratoria that have slowed foreclosure roll rates. New data released Friday morning by Clayton Holdings, Inc. highlights just how much of a pileup is really taking place across both Alt-A and subprime loan products.
…
Among subprime first liens, the 2006 and 2007 vintages clearly remain the most problematic: 60+ day delinquencies rose 4.16 percent and 6.41 percent from month-ago totals, respectively, Clayton reported. More than 43 percent of the 2006 subprime vintage is now severely delinquent. Cure rates fell a whopping 17.54 percent and 11.40 percent, respectively, for the two vintages as well — throwing at least some cold water on the idea that putting a halt to foreclosures would bring about greater resolutions for troubled borrowers.
It’s pretty much the same story in recent Alt-A vintages, as well: 29.71 percent and 27.21 percent of the 2006 and 2007 vintages are 60+ days delinquent, well above October’s totals. Likewise cure rates tanked, falling 13.74 percent and 12.29 percent respectively.
…
Add in the slowing prepayments — meaning fewer borrowers are able to refinance their way out of an existing mortgage — and dropping cure rates, and what do you have? In our opinion, you’re looking at the definition of a foreclosure surge to start Q1 of next year. And, given a looming set of Alt-A recasts and resets in the middle to back half of next year, you have to wonder just how many economists are factoring this into their forecasts of the length and severity of the current recession.
Well looks like we have the makings of yet another bubble. First the .com’s, then houses, now mortgage refinances.
There is a lot of ifs with the wall street lay off theory that it will cause home sales. Most of my friends who got let go from GS, MS, JPM, BOA etc. got to keep all their restricted stock and now have the right to exercise anytime as an ex employee. Most of my buddies are still on severance for a few months more more. Also they have some money in stocks, bonds and mutual funds. For the most part they have not touched the stocks as they don’t need the money and everything is at all time lows. If Hank and Ben through flooding the market with cheap money they will ignite inflation as well as stock prices, allowing these people to exercise restricted stock to cover lack of paychecks in 2009. However, they still need jobs, you can only exercise what you got in restricted stock and since you are not working new shares are not coming in. Even if they find work it is too late to get a full 2010 bonus so we are talking 2011 before they start loading up on the 3 year vesting stock so that means it won’t be till 2014 that they can use this free cash to fund BMWs and Lux homes. My one friend from GS Severence is up April 1st then she will exercise her 50K GS stock piece by piece with her unemployment checks making up the difference, but by winter 2009 she is toast if she is still not working.
Bloomberg:
U.S. Economy: Housing Prices Collapse at Near-Depression Pace
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQ7HBEgYCzUE&refer=home
“Sales of single-family houses in the U.S. dropped in November by the most in two decades and resale prices collapsed at a pace reminiscent of the Great Depression, dashing speculation the market was close to a bottom.”
#164 hardplace: Thanks for the information. I may have to check Costco out, but seem to be pretty set on the Samsung model.
According to an article in the WSJ a few days back ( or Marketwatch, cannot remember), the price of flat screens are supposedly not going to fall too much further, as the factories in Taiwan and S. Korea who apparently produce most of them, are cutting back production sharply , due to a dramatic decline in demand.
Oh and by the way, no need to pay 2005 house prices.
I bought a LG50 42 inch LCD over the summer. Paid $1080. Bought it from some place in Florida by using Amazon. Consumer Reports rated it as a best buy for the money and I would say I am very happy with it so far. Great TV.
#180 Stu: Except in the northeast where they are rock solid!!!
James I hope Japan Inc sent you a thank you card for increasing their GDP.
“BARF”
Bad
Asset
Recovery
Facility
This new BARF program will be extended directly to consumers, where they can exchange unused debit cards and for a new Fed Debit Card called Bernake Bucks which can be used to purchase any item made in China.
#180 Stu: Except in the northeast where they are rock solid!!!
Worth pointing out that the northeast region was the worst performer in terms of sales volume.
Northeast sales were down 12% over last month, compared to the nationwide average of down 8.6% (SAAR). Year over year wasn’t any better. Northeast down 23.9% since last November, national down 17.0% (NSA).
James I hope Japan Inc sent you a thank you card for increasing their GDP.
LG is a South Korean firm.
John (184):
He can’t exactly buy an American made TV now could he?
Maybe I’ll nominate this one for “It’s Lovely, I’ll Take It.”
This property was on the market a while ago – maybe 2 years back – and it was being marketed for the land and lot. Wonder what happened in-between.
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?pgsz=2&pg=6&srcnt=130&sid=13379a5bc7f4433ba748421fc3c4db46&fhcnt=4&loc=iselin%2c+nj+&usrloc=iselin%2c+nj+&fhpg=1&lid=1105429422&lsn=109
He can’t exactly buy an American made TV now could he?
Sure he could, as long as he didn’t mind the retro styling and occasional vacuum tube replacement. Widescreen is for pikers, Roundscreen is where its at. 260i is the hot ticket this winter.
Scribe,
It does have a nice new water heater. Could you imaging the cockroaches living in there. Look closely at the kitchen cabinets.
When America build something good Ill buy it. One of which will never be an American made car. Why? If I stepped foot in a GM dealership I would instantly feel like I was enabling some fat faced entitled liberal loser to continue being a fat faced entitled liberal loser.
“Widescreen is for pikers, Roundscreen is where its at. 260i is the hot ticket this winter.”
It’s all I’ve got!
189–those are some of the nicest interior shots I’ve ever seen. Gorgeous house!
John says:
December 23, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Grim, name brand companies investment grade bonds that were yielding over 10% two weeks ago have all but disappeared as one by one Uncle Sam makes that into a pseudo govt agency. Yes it is a win from Amex, their non TARP bond yields have dropped like a brick now that uncle sam is a gold card member.
JJ: I when through a big round of non-financial investment grade corp bond buying in late October…yesterday and today the marks are up substantially…the best one was an telecom bond maturing in 2018 that I bought at about 82-84 and is trading through par by a couple of points now……I’m thinking beyond the govt intervention, there may be also a bit of window dressing too…..
When America build something good Ill buy it. One of which will never be an American made car.
Subaru does good work out in their Indiana plant. Unfortunately, Subaru employees out in Lafayette aren’t really American Autoworkers and the vehicles produced there really aren’t American Cars. When the American Automobile Industry is discussed, it is always excluding the foreign marques who run successful plants here in the US.
Go figure.
grim says:
December 23, 2008 at 2:32 pm
James I hope Japan Inc sent you a thank you card for increasing their GDP.
LG is a South Korean firm.
grim: no need to use the adjective “South”
Clotpoll says:
December 23, 2008 at 1:03 pm
crazy (148)- That’s nothing. You should see the ones who tak e the lightbulbs, blinds and asswipe.
clot: agreed…..yikes, I think you may have left as substantial amount on the table if they were only motivated to take the washer/dryer……..clot? holes punched in the walls; unflushed toilets; used condoms covering the door-handles?
WSJ Breaking News Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are expected to announce a revised code of conduct for dealing with home appraisers in a compromise between New York Attorney General Cuomo, mortgage lenders and regulators.
Dogs playing poker or a black Jesus?
“meatpacking district”
and no smart alecks, I didn’t get her pork chops for xmas.
I got a really great piece of art..oil on canvas. oh man..its beautiful. I can’t wait to hang it.
SAS
#189 scribe: Charm abounds!!! In this delighful cozy cape.
TB (200):
Here it is!
http://blog.pennlive.com/iridescentartnews/2007/07/large_JandE.jpg
#186 grim Understood. However, many local realtors and delusional or desperate sellers s will use this as justification to keep asking prices too high.
I just gave John’s wife some advice for a Christmas gift…
http://tinyurl.com/johnsxmasgift
(Tardy) Prognostications
Oil June 30 @78
Gold June 30 @ 1020
DOW June 30 @ 6900
Hang Seng June 30 @ 13050
30-Year Fixed – 4.75%
… and now for the useful predictions.
Barbara Corcoran will be telling Matt Lauer that the US Housing Market offers some great buying opportunities right now and that rates need to drop to 4% to really turn the ship around.
Miley Cyrus has a fender bender
Retailers will eliminate the phrase “DoorBuster Deals” from their Black Friday promotions.
McDonalds trading at $78 share @ June 30
Emma Thompson starts writing Tina Fey’s acceptance speeches after Tina collapses due to exhaustion.
Miley Cyrus checks into rehab for an unspecified cause.
You want justification? That costs extra.
A few random thoughts.
Was in FL last week in Orlando. Hired a Caddy DTS as it was not much more for the upgrade. While the A/C in the seats was nice, the rest of it was not awe inspring. It had a few quirks and annoyances that would put me off. But it did hold 3 car seats.
Passed by Garden State mall last night and it was jammed. They were queuing to get in and out from both rt 4 and 17. They are getting traffic, but maybe not sales.
Stores are discounting everything, but I am seeing a big drop in quality on a lot of stuff, especially store brand. Sheves of big ticket items are full, low cost items such as CD’s are flying off shelves.
Guitar Hero is everywhere!
I’m still searing for the 19″ LCD with built in DVD. When it breaks $200 I might pull the trigger.
I hate shoveling snow and i’m looking at snow blowers. HD Lowes are sold out of everything snow related, but are otherwise empty.
Sears has so much real estate. Even at firesale prices, I would think it could survive. Craftsman may have been premium a few years back, but when it moved to Made in China a few years back, the quality dropped. I just see it now as an overpriced brand on a generic tool.
James (167)-
I think they’re yanking your crank.
grim (174)-
I spoke to the owner of a shop who had an investor try to get out from under (on a technicality) close to 200 refis that were placed last Wednesday at the momentary great rates.
I think the major pain in the upper income areas of NJ, and in the associated home prices, is just beginning. There will be some people cast out early who had stretched up, never belonged in those houses in the first place, and will be behind on payments as soon as one or both family members lose jobs. But there are probably many more who have savings, bought 7 or more years ago (and so aren’t facing negative equity or terrible mortgage payments), and who were making good money until recently. These folks aren’t going to sell and move out of the area until they’ve run out of hope of landing another job in the area. Maybe some would retire early to Florida if they lost their jobs but still have major retirement assets. I don’t know how many fit that category.
In any case, I think major fleeing of NJ by these folks is still at least a year away. Unless people in Texas are still hiring, there’s really no place else offering work. Thus I’m gloomy about being able to buy formerly $1mn houses for $500k in NJ for at least a few years more. And even when these houses do come down to 500k to 600k, they will still be attached to $17k/yr local property taxes.
I told my wife that we should expect to wait about 3 yrs before moving from our 1960s 4/3 in Scotch Plains to a nicer 5/3.5 in say, Warren, Basking Ridge, or Montgomery Township. Plus my contractor tells me the newer McMansions that were bought with now failing mortgage financing and are thus becoming available now, are built quite badly and are in bad locations, so those aren’t the ones to buy.
Chi (198)-
There are only three words you should say to an appraiser:
“Make it happen.”
-conference call went well with India, sadly I will have to go out there, a bunch of sissy rookies out there. I always gotta clean up people’s mess.
-picked up the art, looks damn good.
I think I just paid the artist’s 2-3 months worth of rent. man, alive!
oh well, I’m happy.
-John you still want to go for some wine with some real ladies? if so, you gotta get yourself a haircut, no bush…cut above the collar & above the ears. No one armed buzz cuts in the shower look either!!
yee!
:)
SAS
go to free section of craigs list, tons of TVs. I did spring for my last new one a 13 inch color for $79 at the wiz going out of business sale. The other three are from dead people. It is suprizing when people die they just give away the TVs, Stu btw how old are you?
Stu says:
December 23, 2008 at 2:33 pm
John (184):
He can’t exactly buy an American made TV now could he?
as long as hairy balls and backs are ok I am in.
sas says:
December 23, 2008 at 3:42 pm
-conference call went well with India, sadly I will have to go out there, a bunch of sissy rookies out there. I always gotta clean up people’s mess.
-picked up the art, looks damn good.
I think I just paid the artist’s 2-3 months worth of rent. man, alive!
oh well, I’m happy.
-John you still want to go for some wine with some real ladies? if so, you gotta get yourself a haircut, no bush…cut above the collar & above the ears. No one armed buzz cuts in the shower look either!!
yee!
:)
SAS
sas (209)-
Black velvet Elvises (Elvii?) shouldn’t cost that much. ;)
“as long as hairy balls and backs are ok I am in”
I can see you are going to be a little bit of a challenge.
SAS
Chi I got Amerprise, Cablevision senior notes for 14% in the sell off and Comerica, M&I and Sov at 14% plus a VI and PR bond at 7.5% and a Port Bond at 7.2%. The craziest of them all was a 10K NY GO 30 year bond issued in 1990 that matures in 2020 with a 7.75 coupon I got at par.
It was like a shooting gallery from 11/21 until last week. Muni bonds at 72 cents on the dollar and investment grade at 70 cents on a dollar. RE and the Stock market is dead while senior bonds are giving up 14%. TARP needs to beat these munis back to 5% and Investment grade back to 7%. Otherwise long term stocks yield 10% and Real Estate long term earns even less, who is going to stick their neck out on a riskier asset class for half the yield?
#207 Awest Amy be soem truth to what you say.
However, I would add how about all the people that want, need, or have to sell. Seniors retiring, divorce, job transfer/loss, inheritance and all the rest.
If prices dropped dramatically in our area after the last housing burst it would stand to reason they will do so again.
Plus in the early 90’s we did not have the financial melt down, the implossion of Wall St,and apparently this recession is going to make the one it the early 90’s seem like no big deal.
I do agree however with the property tax issue, it is getting uglier every year.
Starbucks not guaranteeing 401(k) company match in 2009: WSJ
#204 PGC I was at Paramus Park last Saturday, it was insane trying to get a parking space. However, none of the stores I went into were crowded, and a random look around saw people with one or 2 packages at most.
The food court was more crowded than anything else.
I didn’t see much Christmas cheer either.
3b,
I agree with the idea that prices will drop dramatically. I just suspect that they do so in semi-slow motion, since my hypothesis is that a lot of the best high-end houses are owned by 50-something folks who don’t have to sell until they’ve given up for good on the local job market.
They good news for them is that they can sell their house here for $600k to $1mn, buy a pleasant place by the lake or golf course in Florida for $300k or less, pay $2 to $3k/ yr in taxes, and save the rest.
217 3b
I too have noticed crowded parking lots but no big lines. I think like me, people go out to see the media hyped “BIG SALES” and then, like me, they realize there are none and go home empty.
Grim-204 in mod.
Anecdata – had no problem running in and out of a few major shopping centers in Union/Middlesex county last weekend. Parking was easy and stores were as crowded as they were on a typical non-holiday weekend. No one was available to get me a game I needed that was behind locked window but then again, I was the only one waiting for help in the entire electronics section at 2pm in Target on a Sunday. Wait, not just ANY sunday, the SUNDAY before Xmas. No one was in the electronics/games section. This was after the sun had come out and the roads were all plowed. Nothing to see here.
re: #317 2B- Talk about Holiday insanity,I am going to see the Rockettes and the Tree tonight, heck I may even wait in line to ice skate, I will be sure to drink heavily I hear it keeps you warm. :)
Just heard the news about the hedge fund manager who slit his wrists after taking sleeping pills last night. Word is he had ALL of his funds invested with Madoff. Look everybody, YOU are more important than your STUFF!! Nobody who matters really cares how much money you have. They care about YOU!!! Remember it for God’s sakes!
I should have gone some place else this Saturday then. The Rockaway mall was jammed to the point that route 15 and route 80 were parking lots. It was actually worse than rush hour which is saying a lot.
This doesn’t mean anything since none of these retailers have any margin.
Sean,
I wanted to take my son to see that show but was late on scoring tickets. Only the expensive seats were left at nearly 100 bucks each.
We took him to the Museum of Natural History instead, followed by diner at the Rock cafe. Nice night but I’ll get those tickets earlier next year.
Have fun!
I think it depends on rich town if people who lost high paying job will sell. I know a few rich towns with two acre zoning where houses high 20K taxes and pools. The maint, taxes, heat and electricity alone on the houses run around 4K a month. Those towns I have seen some forced selling, however cerain BC and Northshore expensive towns where homes on 60 by 100 lots sold for 900K I see little selling. The mortgage is the only big expense. But dang those two acre homes with a huge mortgage are an anchor.
Speaking of retail margin, I picked up a last minute gift at Best Buy a nice printer on sale. The girl at the register handed me a $15 gift card after the sale. How are they are making any money on this stuff?
John,
I am 38. Why do you ask?
It is unimaginable to me how some homeowners are willing to pay those kind of property taxes.
Sean(226):
Those color printers are sold at a loss. The manufacturers make their money back on ink and toner. Very hard to find a good deal on printer supplies. Whenever RiteAid/Walgreens/DrugFair(love that name) or CVS have those buy 1 get 1 free deals, scoop ’em up en masse.
need some input..
should I give bonuses out right now?
or wait till tomorrow?
I traditionally wait to the last minute, so people will show up and work hard till the last minute.
my wife says I’m an as*hole and hand it out now.
?
SAS
but nobody gives me bonus :(
SAS
SAS…Wait until tomorrow.
Stu, I was hoping you were 78. I watch for old people with good TVs and good german cars so I can swoop in. So far I have not died so I always make out. My plan is to never die, so far so good.
John,
I bet you could get Frank’s TV sometime in the 3rd or 4th quarter of 2009. I doubt he is going to die, but the pawn shop should be owning his arse by then.
#218 A West:They good news for them is that they can sell their house here for $600k to $1mn, buy a pleasant place by the lake or golf course in Florida for $300k or less, pay $2 to $3k/ yr in taxes, and save the rest.
That is assuming fo course there are enough people who can pay that 600K.
I do not believe that there are. One large justification for these insane prices, was the wall street job machine/close to NYC line.
That line can be deleted as it is no longer applicable.
#219 barbara: The big sales were spotty, at the big retailers. Day after Christmas perhaps we will see the real markdowns.
Do it now, prove your wife wrong.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/greenspan_roundtable/
Several economist’s views:
Mark Thoma, Brad DeLong, Luigi Zingales
Unfortunately…it is called the Greenspan Roundtable (yes, he’s there, too.)
But – being disagreed with…
Grim – Predictions?
John says:
December 23, 2008 at 3:43 pm
as long as hairy balls and backs are ok I am in.
-John you still want to go for some wine with some real ladies? if so, you gotta get yourself a haircut, no bush…cut above the collar & above the ears. No one armed buzz cuts in the shower look either!!
yee! :) SAS
JJ: Do you remember the NY Post Page Six column where they spied Christopher Hutchins, the Vanity Fair columnist, getting a wax at a midtown salon? …the nickname for the treatment was “The Back, The Crack & The Sack”.
Stu says:
December 23, 2008 at 4:29 pm
Sean(226): Those color printers are sold at a loss. The manufacturers make their money back on ink and toner. Very hard to find a good deal on printer supplies. Whenever RiteAid/Walgreens/DrugFair(love that name) or CVS have those buy 1 get 1 free deals, scoop ‘em up en masse.
stu: The last time I bought a Dell, I refused the free printer. You could tell that the salesperson on the other end of the phone knew I was onto the scam.
I have an old workhorse that I buy one toner catridge every 2 years for $100, as opposed to dropping $30-$40 every few months.
Meh.
Mom bought a condo back in the early 80’s…
When we looked at it, it had *dirty* underwear hanging from all the doorknobs.
This was during a FIRST SHOWING.
++++++++++++++++++
I looked at a house in East Amwell that had a recent 5 room addition put on without any lightswitches. (No switches, no place for switches, no pull strings, no lights installed at all…nada. Hmmmm. We clapped twice but no lights ever came on.)
Looked at another house in East Amwell that had 1 normal bathroom and another *bathroom* was really just a toilet installed in one bedroom, just sitting along one long wall, like where’d you put the bed.
No toilet paper holder, no sink, no magazines??? It flushed just fine…BTW- room was pretty big, 15′ x 20′ at least and had wall-to-wall chatty cathy pink shag carpeting….
Anyone else agree that NJ home prices are still way over priced? Especially in the north east section. I wonder when the market finally rectify itself. Between taxes and property prices this state is still hopefully on its way down!
@237 Zingales says:
“Alan Greenspan is factually correct in his description of the current economic environment, but he is reticent in his analysis of the causes and wrong in his prescriptions.”
3b,
I work in investments, and I agree that a large number of Wall St. jobs and jobs dependent on Wall St. are never coming back. But people who saw the industry come back a couple of times before aren’t going to move out of NJ as soon as they lose their job. They will hope that somehow one of their pals will help them land somewhere else.
The tax liability associated with a fancy house is the long term nightmare. With taxes rising 5% per year or more, who will be able to afford these property taxes in 10 years?
Yes, I could afford to buy some of these houses, but between the $60,000/yr mortgage, $20,000/yr tax payment, and $25,000 to $50,000/yr decline in value for the next few years, I think I’ll make do with what I’ve got.
It will be interesting to see how the higher end markets develop over the next few years when the funny Wall St. money has disappeared, as well as the easy mortgages (unless the government wants to drag out the pain by favoring low rates/ inflated home prices for longer).
Right now my home value to family income ratio is less than 1.5X. The wife wonders why are living in such an average house given that we’re making pretty good money. I’ve done my best to convince her that we have been living in very unusual times, and that better times to buy/upgrade are coming.
Gator
Kettle 56 – Did you get my email address? I emailed Grim the other day.
No
sas (229)-
5:01 PM, tomorrow.
And tell ’em the biggest bonus they get is to keep their jobs.
spam (241)-
E. Amwell? People marry their cousins there.
Anecdata –
South Brunswick Target was not overwhelming. Edison Costco was busy, but less than the average Saturday. New Wal-mart next door had a packed parking lot but was eerily quiet. It is huge, so maybe people disappeared into the space, but staff were wandering around bored and I generally had isles to myself. You could hear a pin drop. I noticed their shelves were pretty full too, their Christmas light section looked untouched. Not sure if they opened late for the season or if this means something.
“We’ll use our voices, and then if we have to we’ll use our hands, and maybe axes,” Hauksdottir says.
Quote of the day. Especially the part about the axes.
Well I am off to Tampa tomorrow for the holidays. No doubt it will also be round 2 of no we don’t want you and your son’s mistake in home buying. The only reasons I’m looking forward to this is the beach, 80 degree weather, and going to Sea World to see Shamu the 10th(?).
Wish me luck!
“5:01 PM, tomorrow.
And tell ‘em the biggest bonus they get is to keep their jobs”
ok, i dished it out. gave extra week vacation on top of it.
man, I will be working till I circle the drain. oh well…
SAS
tell you the truth, our operation is real informal.. I might make it sound more formal than it really is.
SAS
#244 A West:But people who saw the industry come back a couple of times before……
Only problem is this time it is not liek before, in fact none of us in the industyr (myself included) have seen this in our lifetime.
I think the collapse on Wall St coupled with the severe recession away from Wall St’s woes together with the ever increasing property taxes will put the final nails in housing prices here.
I expect to see steep declines in asking and sold prices come Spring 09. There is no other alternative.
#250 lost: No doubt it will also be round 2 of no we don’t want you and your son’s mistake in home buying.
?????
“Fed approves Chinese bank CCB to open office in US”
http://tinyurl.com/5c893z
(250) Lost – Have fun…relax and good luck.
(251) SAS – Good for you…
You will be thought of as “a man who knew how to keep Christmas well.”
“You will be thought of as “a man who knew how to keep Christmas well.”
no no. not me.
I consider a bonus a borderline payoff.
:)
SAS
just kidding.
SAS
and if anyone thinks this was a suicide, think again.
“NYPD: Madoff investor commits suicide in office”
http://tinyurl.com/7yecuw
Nom and others,
The Coastline Cab may be one of the best sub $10 bottles of wine I have ever tasted. It’s really quite good and has a decent nose and taste. Very buttery, with serious cherry flavor and a bit of walnut in there as well. The finish is smooth, albeit not nearly as long lasting as that of a higher end cab and the flavor is not overpowering, which I like a lot. All in all, I am extremely impressed. Will be nice to taste it side by side with one of our plus $30 cabs. It almost tasted like a merlot in strength, but the flavor was definitely cab. This one may develop a finish with some aging, but I wouldn’t let her go for more than a year or two. It was a perfect compliment to my mussels arrabiata. May even pick up another case when we deplete some of this one which seems worthy of storing properly.
sas (252)-
I’m afraid to ask what line of work you’re in.
254 3b
I posted around Thanksgiving time about DH’s father passing away and leaving him his house in Tampa. Problem is Grandma is not only the bank holding the mortgage, but also owns 50% of the house and is on the deed. DH told her he wants nothing to do with the house and she can have it. She seems to think he is responsible for half the mortgage, taxes, etc. I am not looking forward to dealing with this.
256 Cindy
Thanks- we need it!
Got a response from WellsFargo on the nocost refi.
“Stuart—the current no fee refi rate is 5.50%—Should go lower over next few weeks—I’ll let you know–regards–mike”
I’ll let you all know when and if it goes lower.
The more I think about it, a lower interest rate will not help the economy or those on the edge financially. Due to the recent increases in creditworthiness required to obtain these low interest loans, lower interest rates will only help those who are responsible with their management of debt. These are the same people who are not going to run out and buy crapola they don’t need with their newfound cash. Especially in light of the ever-increasing unemployment numbers and how they will negatively impact ones perception of their job security. Those who are in distress will not qualify for these loans so I doubt it will impact the downward trend in housing values and sales in any noticeable way.
sas (260)-
I can’t imagine you saying anything else about that situation.
Seems like it was a very professional “suicide”, no?
lost (263)-
Have you had an attorney look into your hubby’s simply quitclaiming his interest or refusing the inheritance?
267 Clot
We were warned by a cousin that if we push too hard she’ll cut him out of the will. Nice huh?
Gator seconds the recommendation on the Coastline Cab. This is a fantastic everyday wine. I drank at least half the bottle and will now need to postpone my holiday baking supply trip to ShopRite that I was going to undertake early this evening.
Man I love living in a town where all the best restaurants are BYOB!
stu (265)-
I don’t think the Fed can pull off the purchase of enough agency paper to drop the rates. If they do, it will be super-temporary in nature and will cost so much that it could be the kill shot to the economy.
lost (268)-
You should talk to sas about having one of his “consultants” speak with your cousin.
lost (268)-
Sounds like the only thing left to inherit is a big pile of debt.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Treasury-sells-22-billion-bills/story.aspx?guid=%7BEA7D4023%2DC99E%2D482B%2D9C6D%2DAED0AFCB8310%7D&dist=hplatest#comments
Clot – Stu – someone – What is this all about
“The Treasury Department sold $22 billion in four-week bills at a yield of 0% on Tuesday.”
“I’m afraid to ask what line of work you’re in”
right now, our operation is basically like a combination of private investigation buisness and consulting buisness.
some list of clients include drug companies, banks, law firms, and foreign govt agencies.
btw-you won’t find us in the phone book:)
SAS
?
268 Lost – Tampa real estate sucks so bad that you may be better off financially forgoing the inheritance instead of getting stuck with that house for years. I have a friend who will be underwater on her recent Tampa purchase for 20 years (she still thinks she’ll be able to sell in a year or two).
I hope it all works out for you.
268 Clot
It’s not the cousin that will write him out of the will- it’s Grandma. And Grandma is very very well off. Now personally, I think she can take her money and stick it. I have a real problem dealing with people that are nasty. However, I bite my tongue because after what DH has been through, he deserves every penny he has coming and more.
lost,
what’s your DH’s dignity worth? Sounds like the matriarch is on a power trip. You’ve lived this long without the money, might as well see it through.
Besides, what clot said (272).
Clot that was meant for 271 and 272.
lost,
I hit the button before your last post. Sounds complicated, best of luck.
276 Gator
This is exactly why we told her to keep the house. It’s depreciated 30% already. But she is so delusional, she thinks that area has appreciated.
i know, you must wonder why am I on these boards?
well, its fun and you good points of views.
SAS
this place is kind of my little oasis:)
SAS
Clot (271):
“it will be super-temporary”
Hence the purpose of my Wells Fargo inquiry. It appears that their no-cost refi would be a perfect fit for us since our mortgage is still pretty big making closing charges cost prohibitive. It doesn’t hurt that our current mortgage with them making the doc process almost nill. I read that the charge to the interest rate of their no-cost mortgage is about .5%. Are there any loan experts here who could estimate what the closing costs would be on a 25-year mortgage of about 360K where the house has about 140K of DP equity in it. Our credit rating is around 770.
281 Lost – Let Grandma sell it then and take her “profit”. Be a sport and let her keep dad’s profit too. My friend is renting her South Tampa house out and can’t even cover the mortgage with what she can get for the place.
Run as far away as fast as you can.
278 Barbara
Yes I agree. She is on a power trip and always has been. I truly wonder whether the rest of her family deals with her because she is mom or because of the money.
285 Gator
That’s exactly what we want to do. Deep down she knows. She has another house that she not only cannot sell but she cannot rent either. Hopefully, she’ll come to reality sooner rather then later.
(283) SAS –
“This place is kind of my little oasis.”
agreed…
I don’t usually post at night. I am on vacation!
287 Lost – What part of town is it in?
Surprised that nobody linked this to piss Chifi off :) –
RIP Chicago School of Economics: 1976-2008
Its long overdue. From the efficient-market theories, to the concept of man as rational profit maximizers, much of the edifice that is was the Chicago school of economics is based on a foundation that is false, disproven or otherwise questionable.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/chicago-repudiation/
Cindy (273)-
Just think of it as 22 bn that won’t get spent on Phony/Fraudy paper.
(273)-
Return OF capital trumps return ON capital.
lost (277)-
Got it. Sad to say, but that Biblical verse about “eat my bread, do my will” is the damn truth.
Or in this case, she dangles an alleged, yet-to-be defined inheritance (I’m assuming this) as leverage to get your DH to willingly take a hit on a dog-ass piece of RE.
Sucker bet.
289 Gator
North Tampa
Victorian…play nice!
Whenever the market crashes, everyone says it is the end of buy and hold and that it is a day traders market. Whenever the market rallies and everyone misses it, everyone praises buy and hold. Time, as usual, will determine the best method. I wouldn’t poo poo rational market theory at all. As a matter of fact, I think the market is behaving quite rationally considering the state of our economy.
Clot 293 and 294
Amen.
I won’t get into dollar amounts. However, I know that she is holding several mortgages for the aforementioned cousin. The amounts are substantial and its only a small part of her estate. I don’t trust this at all. However, I would also never forgive myself if I was the reason she cut DH out of the will. So again I bite my tongue. And if it comes to be that she cuts him out anyway, well, that’s something I am not a stranger to. Coincidently, also by a grandparent.
“As a matter of fact, I think the market is behaving quite rationally considering the state of our economy”
yes, I agree.
as of late, we actually had free markets.
i.e banks afraid to loan to eachother cause they don’t trust one another, cause the fraud has gone on way too long, its obvious to everyone.
SAS
to add to that, so far we have only seen the effects of the collapse of the bubble economy. we have yet to see slowdown/recession of the real economy.
hence, 09 will be more of the same of 08, but alot meaner & much more harsh.
a slow burn….
SAS
eating a potatoe kanish… damn good.
makes me wish I was jewish.
SAS
OK enough of this. I have to deal with this for real tomorrow. I’ll post from Tampa if I need to be talked down. SAS are you good for that? :)
SAS,
So true!
All that’s left is the so-called quantitative easing which is another name for borrowing from your offspring. Should be a fun 2009.
Can’t wait until the candidates for president in 2020 debate the best ways to reduce the public debt.
sas:
It’s knish ya goy! Round one or square one? The round ones are the real deal. The square knishes are for suckers.
“SAS are you good for that? :)”
I’m game brother.
SAS
http://lawdigest.uslegal.com/wills-and-estates/disclaimer-of-property-interest/1296/
Lost – This is what I could find re “disclaim of interest” property inheritance – Florida.
Aren’t there inheritance taxes etc. to worry about if you don’t disclaim it?
“The round ones are the real deal”
big & round & bought at the jewish deli.
SAS
Per Calculatedrisk Cerebus Capital has limited withdrawls….
Clicky here. How long until they’re declared a “bank holding company” and get TARP’d?
Cindy, it sounds to me as if her husband’s Grandma wants the risk offloaded to them. If they disclaim, they offend grandma and any inheritance.
There’s a solution in here somewhere, and maybe it involves charity/something that grandma really cares about.
I’m in can’t spell mode, it should be Cerberus. You’d think I’d get that right considering how much D&D I played as a kid…
295 Lost – Eek! I’d rather be holding property in Fresh Kills.
(308) Pat – Yeah – Well if she needs it, there’s all the legal mumbo jumbo a girl could want @ 305.
305 Cindy
This is exactly why he emailed her saying he didn’t want the house and that she should take his half. And printed a copy of it. If she doesn’t move on it as we get closer to the 9 month mark, we’ll send a registered letter to all parties necessary.
310 Gator
Me too. And we know how much I hate SI.
OK I need some sleep as I have to be up at 3 am. So I’ll fill ya’ll in either in a few days or next week.
Thanks for all the help and advice!
Cerberus. There’s a nice bunch of guys. Like a bunch of hungry, rabid lemurs, led by the rictus-faced Mr. Snow (Klink’s predecessor).
Say what you want about Snow, but that guy knew when the hell to get out of town.
That’s a nice touch, trying to give Chrysler to the UAW. Too bad they can’t even give away this pitiful company.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2008/12/greenspan_roundtable_the_wrong.cfm
(290) Victorian
I kinda like this guy – Luigi Zingales – Booth School of Business
http://law.justia.com/florida/codes/TitleXLII/ch0739.html
I’m just going to leave this here for Lost in case she checks tomorrow – It looks like you have to file one of those “disclaimers.”
LOST – This is for you!
Good luck….
46 stu,re: renting w victory gardens:
hard, but not impossible!
container gardening, my friend…
or absentee ladlords:
http://ghosttownfarm.wordpress.com/
That’s a nice touch, trying to give Chrysler to the UAW. Too bad they can’t even give away this pitiful company.
Clot,
Suggested the same the other day, didn’t realize someone was listening.
grim says:
December 8, 2008 at 1:44 pm
I’ve got an idea, why don’t we just give Chrysler to the UAW in exchange for concessions?
anyone have a doubt now that real estate in the NYC area is in crash mode?I expect bad things with real estate prices as wall street and the economy meltdown.
Even Lawrence Yun is raising the white flag
“Most of my friends who got let go from GS, MS, JPM, BOA etc. got to keep all their restricted stock and now have the right to exercise anytime as an ex employee.”
John,
Vince Foster got a bullet in the head, he got to keep that also.
I got a bunch of dot com shares and no one thought for a second of helping us gen xer out….no way no how.
321, BC Bob:
Uh, excuse me, but this analogy of yours is truly awful. Not only is it in incredibly bad taste, but it is also totally pointless.
Good taste is to hunger
as price is to demand.
Funny, isn’t it?
almost killed an employee – well, three actually – at US Air today. bought a ticket four months ago. can you believe those bastards tell me at the gate: “your flight was oversold, you’re on the outside looking in, sorry.”
We got extremely lucky – or i probably would have gone to jail. that’s how angry i was when they said they do not have a seat to our destination for FOUR DAYS.
a connecting flight was late, opening up 3 seats. we took 2 of them. out of sheer luck … they were in first class. drank like a sailor all the way here.
Holiday wishes:
For Grim: when I left NJ 32 years ago I never thought I’d be able to return. Thanks for creating and hosting one of the most lively and informative boards on the web. Makes me feel like I never left home. The posters alone are worth the visit.
For Clot: NJ’s answer to H.L. Mencken. Your acerbic wit and talent for combining words in ways that the inventors of the English language never envisioned has me regularly updating my buzz phrase generator.
For John: A 21st century reincarnation of Mark Twain. We have done a lot of the same things which is why I always enjoy reading your stories. (Mine, sadly, are without the celebrity and monied connections.)
For Reinvestor 101: Surely you will go down in history as the inventor of soon-to-be-dictionary entries “got my *ss in a sling” and “real estate terrorist.” If you’re real, your a treasure. If you’re role playing, it’s a character worthy of a sitcom. Kudos.
For SAS: Seems we spent time in some of the same places. Likely a dangerous man. Even less talented at a keyboard than I am. Can mis-spell three words in a two word sentence but those two words get to the point.
Kettle1: I’ve learned more from you about inflation and money supply in the past few months than I knew in the past few decades. Hopefully it will keep my nest egg out of trouble.
For everyone else: I’ve learned a lot about real estate and house hunting here. Thanks to all for sharing your experiences. And remember, there are places on earth where a discussion of real estate involves that patch of cold, hard earth where you pitch your tent. We have much to be thankful for. Till next year…
“I’m afraid to ask what line of work you’re in”
sas is the reason why people wear tin foil hats. That’s all you need to know.
:)
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