From BusinessWeek:
2009 Real Estate Forecast: Troubles Spread
Wealthier neighborhoods that avoided subprime borrowing will be hurt in the new year as the downturn weakens even healthy markets
2008 was the year that subprime borrowers and speculators got hurt by the real estate crisis. 2009 could be when everyone else gets hit.
Until now, the nation’s most serious home price declines have been in low-cost markets that were dominated by subprime mortgages, and in overbuilt markets such as Florida, California, and Las Vegas, where residential values are sliding fast toward pre-housing boom levels.
…
That’s because the big story in 2009 could be that, with the deepening recession and mounting job losses, serious housing troubles could infect wealthier communities and markets that were just beginning to stabilize this summer before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on Sept. 15 sparked the most serious financial turmoil in decades. In fact, according to online real estate research firm HousingPredictor.com, based in Destin, Fla., housing prices nationwide will fall 12.5% next year, compared with an estimated 11.1% this year.Housing and mortgage problems pushed the nation into a recession that could now amplify, draw out, and expand the reach of the housing declines.
…
Take Manhattan, for example, where condo and co-op prices soared years after housing bubbles in most other major cities popped. New York City’s real estate market was bolstered by residents who were still earning sky-high Wall Street bonuses and by a weak dollar that attracted overseas bargain hunters.Now that the dollar has strengthened, the economic woes have spread to potential New York home buyers across the globe, and thousands of New York financial professionals are collecting severance. Manhattan apartment prices, as a result, have dropped as much as 20% since the summer, said Jonathan Miller, president and chief executive officer of real estate appraisal firm Miller Samuel. Miller’s analysis is based on contracts signed in recent months, rather than actual closings.
“Mid-september was a milestone,” Miller said. “That’s where you saw a pronounced slowdown in transaction volume.”
HousingPredictor.com is projecting a 19.4% decline in Manhattan home prices in 2009. And Moody’s Economy.com is predicting that condo prices in New York City, Northern New Jersey, and Westchester County will fall 29% by the fourth quarter of next year.
“Nationally, we think this recession is going to be worse than anything we’ve seen in 40 years,” said Marisa DiNatale, senior economist for Moody’s Economy.com. “If the economy gets that bad, then you will start to see foreclosures in Manhattan as well.”
…
Few areas across the country will likely escape the recession and the corresponding impact on the real estate market, housing experts say. Another wave of foreclosures could be triggered next year as a flood of Alt-A and option adjustable-rate mortgages, which were given to people with decent credit, begin to recast.
…
“We’re in the middle of the game here,” said Joseph Seneca, professor of economics at Rutgers University in New Jersey. “There’s significant further unwinding to come…. We’re in a downward spiral with job losses that is reinforcing the weakness in the consumer markets, particularly in the largest investment the consumer makes, in his home.”
MMMMMMMerrrrrrrrrrrrry Christmas everyone….and God Bless Tiny Tim.
another %30 off condos, merry holidays and jolly new year! could you pass the gravy?
Merry Christmas to all (even O).
In Miami ’til New Year’s. FIL not feeling so great.
May post sporadically. If I can, will try to send along some good foreclosure/REO pics…if I can find a bus tour.
Merry Christmas & Happy New Year to all!
Clot,
Miami is a real treat for the housing bubble enthusiest. I went last spring. The skyline is filled with construction cranes. Every highrise condo has a giant banner advertising units for sale. Many buildings appear completely empty
Clot,
Hope all works out well. I just got my father out of the hospital, last night.
All the best to all this holiday season.
2005-Goldilocks
2006-Subprime
2007-Denial
2008-Reaction
2009-Alt-A/Protectionism, and of course, inflate and inflate more.
Refi BOOM!
From MarketWatch:
Mortgage applications mushroom on lower rates
With mortgage rates approaching record lows, the volume of applications filed for mortgages jumped a seasonally adjusted 48% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey.
Applications for the week ended Dec. 19 ran 124.6% ahead of the mortgage activity seen during the same week last year, the Washington-based MBA said. Its survey covers about half of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications.
…
Refinancings made up 83.2% of all applications filed last week, up from 76.9% the previous week.
sounds like people will be staying in their current dwellings
FHASecure dies, swept under rug. Another housing bailout program fails.
For FHASecure, a Quiet End Nears
ABush administration program originally designed as a refinancing option for severely delinquent subprime mortgage borrowers is likely to meet a quiet end as 2008 ticks off its remaining days, a source at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development confirmed to HousingWire late Tuesday. The once highly-hyped program never really lived up to its original billing, and eventually became a catch-all for refinancing any “at-risk” borrowers as the mortgage crisis outgrew its original boundaries.
National Mortgage News first reported on the likely demise of the program earlier this week, citing unnamed industry sources.
My god, the TARP funds application asks fewer questions than a circa-2005 no-doc loan app.
http://www.sba.gov/idc/groups/public/documents/sba_homepage/guideline_tarp_capitalpurchase.pdf
Name, telephone number, type of company, amount requested.
You’ve got to be kidding me. I hoped for a bit more rigor and due diligence. Good thing it’s not my money they are giving away.
Oh.. wait..
From the Courier Post:
Foreclosures spawn rash of illegal evictions
As the number of home foreclosures in New Jersey continues to rise, a growing number of renters are reportedly being evicted from their homes.
But state officials want residents to know that’s illegal.
A tenant cannot be forced from his or her home solely because of a foreclosure in New Jersey, which has some of the strongest renter’s protections in the country, Public Advocate Ronald K. Chen said Tuesday.
In fact, tenants are protected through the course of foreclosure and resale of the property.
Landlords who force tenants out without a legal eviction order face both civil and criminal charges, Chen said. Under state law, a landlord who does that can be arrested as a disorderly person.
A landlord can also face criminal charges for attempting to force a tenant into leaving by turning off the utilities, changing locks or removing his or her possessions.
“This is a tragedy under any circumstance,” Chen said. “Folks don’t know it, but they don’t have to leave.”
On Tuesday, Chen and Banking and Insurance Commissioner Steven Goldman said they’ve begun investigating complaints from tenants around the state who live in foreclosed properties and are being illegally forced out of their homes.
“We’re in the middle of the game here,” said Joseph Seneca, professor of economics at Rutgers University in New Jersey.
I agree, probably the bottom of the 4th. The liars that were touting 9th inning, last year, forgot to tell us that this was the first game of doubleheader.
Hey Ernie, let’s play two.
(Very T*rdy) Prognostications
Oil June 30 @78
Gold June 30 @ 1020
DOW June 30 @ 6900
Hang Seng June 30 @ 13050
30-Year Fixed – 4.75%
… and now for the useful predictions.
Barbara Corcoran will be telling Matt Lauer that the US Housing Market offers some great buying opportunities right now and that rates need to drop to 4% to really turn the ship around.
Miley Cyrus has a fender bender
Wal-mart eliminates the phrase “DoorBuster Deals” from their Black Friday promotions.
McDonalds trading at $78 share @ June 30
Emma Thompson starts writing Tina Fey’s acceptance speeches after Tina collapses due to exhaustion.
Miley Cyrus checks into rehab for an unspecified cause.
Justification costs extra.
Hope everyone had a nice Festivus.
Everyone should read Wall Street journal today, great article on openheimer muni bond fund we discussed. The Friday auto section where people write in about problems with their car is funny, everysingle car with a problem in a toyota. Good articles on Corp bonds, and in the list of bonds that spreads tightened and widened the most, cablevision 8’s were on the list and we discussed that last week as a bond to buy. Also CIT bank holding company status is discussed and we all called that. The paper looks like stuff discussed on NJ RE REPORT from last week. Maybe they get their tips here.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. initial jobless claims climb to 26-year high of 586,000
U.S. weekly initial jobless claims rise 30,000 to 586,000
US 4-week average claims up 13,750 to 558,000, 26-year high
From MarketWatch:
Unemployment lines longest in 26 years
The U.S. labor market continued to worsen in recent weeks, with the unemployment lines stretching to the longest in 26 years, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.
First-time applications for state unemployment benefits jumped by 30,000 to a seasonally adjusted 586,000 in the week ending Dec. 20, the government said, based on reports of actual filings at state offices around the nation. That’s the highest since November 1982.
The four-week average of new claims – which smooth out distortions caused by bad weather, strikes or the timing of holidays – rose by 13,750 to 558,000, the highest since December 1982.
Meanwhile, the number of people collecting benefits fell by 17,000 to 4.37 million in the week ending Dec. 13. The four-week average of continuing claims rose by 93,000 to 4.32 million, the most since December 1982.
The jobless claims report shows businesses are laying off workers at a rapid pace, and finding a replacement job is ever harder for those who’ve lost their job.
“This is a pretty clean number,” a Labor Department spokesman said. There were no unusual events that would skew the numbers one way or the other, he said. The snow storm in the Northeast had little impact on new claims.
Happy Holidays from the State of NJ and your local municipalities!
N.J. claims 7 of top 10 counties for highest property taxes in nation
Seven counties in New Jersey ranked in the nation’s top 10 highest property tax bills from 2005 to 2007, according to a recently released study by the Tax Foundation, a nonprofit group monitoring fiscal policy.
Hunterdon ranked highest on the list at third place with a median property tax of $7,708, according to the report. Bergen, Somerset, Essex, Morris, Union and Passaic counties also made the top 10.
The 14 highest counties on the list were all in the New York-metropolitan area. West Chester County in New York had the highest median property tax.
…
Passaic County ranks the top of the highest percentage of tax taken out of income at 8.2 percent, according to the study. Essex County ranks second with 7.9 percent.
LOW RATES FOR ALL OF 2009!!!, actually 30K is like a rounding error so that is not so bad, it is just 30K on top of a record high number seems bad.
grim says:
December 24, 2008 at 8:34 am
From MarketWatch:
U.S. initial jobless claims climb to 26-year high of 586,000
U.S. weekly initial jobless claims rise 30,000 to 586,000
US 4-week average claims up 13,750 to 558,000, 26-year high
http://cxa.marketwatch.com/finra/BondCenter/BondDetail.aspx?ID=NzQ1MTkwSDc2
Here is why that oppenheimer muni bond fund fell apart, some bonds like this fell off a cliff after trading near par for ten years straight.
#6 BC Bob:2009-Alt-A/Protectionism, and of course, inflate and inflate more.
But of course it will not change anything.The housing market will continue its decline.
#8 crossroads: Those that can
gee wizz…
I had no idea my spelling was that bad.
SAS
hey all,
Santa is currently over australia!
http://www.noradsanta.org
SAS
what time you think he will make it over NJ?
SAS
I’m having a miserable Christmas. The credit card companies have reduced my damn credit lines. The same thing has occurred with my equity line. My damn investments and real estate are way the hell down and I’ve had to live off a reduced cash flow. Some of my money was with this fool Madoff. I’m being hit in every damn direction basically because either terrorists or criminals like Madoff have stolen my damn money. On top of that, I can’t get a damn loan.
I can’t enjoy Christmas because I can’t get the stuff I want. Is this what some of you wanted to see? People feeling despondent in the time when they should be cheerful?
Let me tell you something, this experience has radicalized me and someone gonna have hell to pay for this shlt. I’ve exchanged my Brooks Brothers suit for some damn military fatigues and I’m going to live off the land and raid Clotpoll’s house periodically.
ING CUT CD RATES AGAIN THIS MORNING> I guess with access to borrow from Fed at 1/2 of 1% interest and the fact banks can issue FDIC backed bonds at 2.5% there is no need to pay high yields on CDs to get cash. GMAC is the last large CD issuer not in on the TARP/FDIC deal and if they become a bank (which I expect they will in Jan), kiss all high yield CDs goodbye, hope you locked and loaded in 2008. A Five year taxable CD at 3% from the ING on-line bank is criminal. A 9 month 2.5% CD should be a felony. Hello Investment Grade and Munis in 2009. People who rely on interest income won’t be able to pay bills on 2.5% cds. Heck just last year ING paid 5% on the same CD, that is a 50% cut in interest income for someone who was rolling one year cds. People are going to be forced to let the CDs mature rather than roll them over and dip their toes into high yielding slightly riskier stuff whether they like it or not. They always say the Dutch are the cheapest SOBs and a christmas CD rate cut will be sure to make the widows and orphans cry.
6 Month 2.25% 12/24/2008
9 Month 2.50% 12/24/2008
12 Month 3.25% 12/24/2008
18 Month 3.25% 12/24/2008
24 Month 3.00% 12/24/2008
30 Month 3.00% 12/24/2008
36 Month 3.00% 12/24/2008
48 Month 3.00% 12/24/2008
60 Month 3.00% 12/24/2008
RE 101 just double down, buy options on margin on triple leverage ETFs and give it to the man.
http://www.viddler.com/explore/winelibrarytv/videos/705/69.00/2007/
Merry Christmas All….
Stu and Gator…Here is a tape of a dude drinking wine at the Napa Valley Grille in Paramus, NJ. One of those he tastes is the Twomey Merlot.
John,
Your bond information reads like:
“The Ghbdfh Gjxfhjh thing Tjsdfh 7.8% off to Gsdhfjh and Hjdbfj so sdjfhjd. I’d buy if I wasn’t chicken.
But here’s another one today, folks:
10.8 blah blah
88.2 blah more blah
so blah.
Is there some where I could go learn about bonds?
Hvala.
Merry Crispyness to all. (it’s how I said it when I was little, when we lived in “pi-sketti-way”)
John, I just don’t have anymore faith. The rules have been changed on me and every new rule that comes up is against me and takes even more of my damn money.
The only path at this point is the path to extract some payback. The only path is revolution, Robin Hood style. Clotpoll has got some damn money squirreled away and I intend to take it after I kill his damn dog.
John says:
December 24, 2008 at 9:08 am
RE 101 just double down, buy options on margin on triple leverage ETFs and give it to the man.
Is there some where I could go learn about bonds? (I mean like motley fool or some sort of website like that?) Any tips or tricks on where there’s good educational info?
50.5,
Cheer up. It’s only paper anyway. Come down to the mines with me, I could use some help digging.
Let me know where you are hanging your hat. I’ll being you some holiday cheer.
that’s bring.
Did someone say revolution?
From Reuters:
Russia minister says crisis triggering unrest: RIA
Russia faces an increasing number of protests and upheaval due to the global financial crisis, a deputy interior minister said on Wednesday, in Moscow’s clearest admission yet on how badly it has been hit.
The Kremlin and Russian media have tried to ease public concern over the impact of the economic slowdown, despite a contraction in the economy and a series of rouble devaluations against the dollar and euro.
At the weekend, riot police detained around 100 people in the Pacific city of Vladivostok who were protesting at new used car import duties imposed to protect the domestic auto industry.
“The situation may be exacerbated by a growth in protests, arising from the frustration of workers over the non-payment of wages or those threatened with dismissal,” RIA quoted Deputy Minister Mikhail Sukhodolsky as saying.
Look, the California gold rush was a long time ago and not to be repeated. I can’t be weighed down with a bunch of gold and damn silver, besides we ain’t going to have an economy based on a stale old metal anyway. What are you trying to do anway? Divert my attention from what’s important?? Get with the program.
BC Bob says:
December 24, 2008 at 9:16 am
50.5,
Cheer up. It’s only paper anyway. Come down to the mines with me, I could use some help digging.
Let me know where you are hanging your hat. I’ll being you some holiday cheer.
what’s the suicide rate for people who read this site?
Hey, lay off Plax. He’s been reading this blog and is just gearing up.
“Police yesterday seized a small cache of weapons and ammo from the Totowa, NJ, home of troubled Giants star Plaxico Burress, possibly setting up the suspended grid star for more legal trouble, law-enforcement sources said.”
http://www.nypost.com/seven/12242008/news/regionalnews/raid_on_plax_home_145719.htm
50.5,
I can only offer. You must not be paying attention.
#36 cosmic: Actually you should be worrying about the suicide rate for people who were not fortuntate enough to discover this site.
If they had perhaps it could have prevented some suicdes.
From Reuters:
Consumer spending posts fifth monthly drop
U.S. consumers cut spending for a fifth straight month during November and their incomes shrank, according to a government report on Wednesday that pointed to deepening recessionary pressures.
The Commerce Department said spending contracted by 0.6 percent after falling even more steeply by 1 percent in October. Incomes contracted by 0.2 percent after a slight 0.1 percent gain in October, reflecting the strain that rising unemployment is putting on Americans’ ability to spend.
50.5,
Sit back and think about it. If you are fcuked with RE, gold is your only possible savior. Better root on.
Merry Christmas everyone!!
From the AP:
Durable goods drop 1 percent in November
Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods fell for the fourth consecutive month in November, and a steady rise in inventories suggests production will need to be cut further.
The drop in durable goods orders, while smaller than expected, revealed persistent weakness for the auto industry and a big decline in demand for commercial aircraft. Analysts believe manufacturing will not rebound until the broader economy does — at the earliest, in the middle of next year.
The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that orders for durable goods fell 1 percent last month, a decline that was smaller than the 3 percent decrease economists had been expecting. However, the decrease was on top of an 8.4 percent plunge in orders in October, which had been the biggest decline in eight years.
http://cxa.marketwatch.com/finra/BondCenter/Default.aspx
SIFMA website has all the details you need to know about bonds. Straight up short term investment grade corporate bonds or munis are not much more complicated than a CD. A three year IBM senior bond versus a three year CD where you plan to hold both to maturity are not that different from one another. The IBM bond may change values every day but you always get 100 cents on a dollar at maturity unless they go bankrupt. To protect that my mom always only bought 5K of bonds in each company. She had like a 100k spread over 20 Fortune 100 companies. Just buy them online at places like Fidelity. My Mom used to only do five year bank CDs in her taxable and IRA accounts all throughout the 1970s and 1980s, when 1993 came and interest rates dropped like a brick I was familar with corporate bonds but she was scared, so she agreed to do only 3-7 year bonds of only name brand companies such as IBM, Nabisco, Citigroup, Amex etc. If she never heard of it she did not want the bond. All stock can be higher returns with much greater risk and short term you can even lose 1/2 your money. All cash is to protect 100% of your principal but since taxable CDs earn less than inflation over time you will lose your money slowly but surely. Even 80 year old women who are super safe will have cash, investment grade munis and corps, TIPS and CDs mixed together, inflation is a silent but deadly killer of a totally risk averse person. Read that SIFMA site or if you have an on-line brokerage whatever info they have. I maybe be boring, but if you can get 7% near risk free in high grade bonds versus 3% CDs, just do the math long term and you will be shocked what a difference and extra 4% makes over 20 years.
http://www.bondsonline.com/
this one is also good
Happy and safe holidays to all you regulars. I look forward to reading your posts each day and take some comfort in the knowledge that there are other New Jerseyans with similar views.
A merry/happy to the rest of you lurkers too.
central florida foreclosure madness:
large, 5k square foot house on corner lot with pool sold for 550k two years ago. new construction in a sweet, gated community.
neighbor’s house (smaller, also a pool) sold for 448k.
the corner lot mansion foreclosed (guy put nothing down, ARM skyrocketed to $7000 a month so he walked).
new owners just bought foreclosure: $287,000. neighborhood is deflated, but the good news is that people are actually buying, even at low prices.
Merry Christmas/Nollaig Shona Duit/ to all.
Yikes –
ive been hearing of deals like that, but not in FL.. in MI, OH, etc.
Im hoping that those kinds of discount come to this neck of the woods soon.
36 space boy
ignorance is bliss, keep drinking the kool-aid.
14 hours till festivus!!
God Bless Us One and All. At this juncture, Only God Can Help.
the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to a new 37-year low as existing home sales continued to fall. The average fell to 5.14% with an average 0.8 point for the week ending Dec. 24, down from last week when it averaged 5.19%. Last year, the average was 6.17%. “Interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages eased for the eighth straight week and set another record low since Freddie Mac’s survey began in 1971,”
re: Applying for home loans.
do most people apply at two places, or just one? we have a quote from Wells, and they obviously want our business (guy called this AM – realtor must have told him we have 4.5 because he said he could go a little under 5).
but we have a lower quote elsewhere (had 4.5; now back up near 5). is it good to apply at two places for the loan and then when it comes time to choose, you pick the better option?
Our SaS reminds me of Robert McCall who starred in “The Equalizer” that 80s private detective in NYC with a lot of contacts who had apparently heard of his SAS exploits and talent in intelligence gathering.
http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0088513/
I guess the owner of this property does not visit this website, or read the news or have any clue.
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?pg=6&srcnt=169&sid=829356d2110b44619178fa77c5b6c22c&fhcnt=4&loc=manalapan%2c+nj&usrloc=manalapan%2c+nj&mxp=600000&typ=1&ml=8&fhpg=2&lid=1104497765&lsn=56
$500K for less than 1000sqft.
re: #14 John “Maybe they get their tips here.”
You could not be more correct about bloggers and the media.
The media cites bloggers all the time now as prime sources for information, and although Grim down plays his role he has saved countless people from making bad decisions about real estate purchases.
I am surpirsed the NAR does not have a hit out on him, or maybe they do and SAS cancelled the contract.
Now Plax has some good firepower
Burress was not at home when the search warrant was executed by Totowa police, the NYPD and officials from the Manhattan DA’s Office yesterday morning – although his wife was home, sources said.
Seized in the raid were one 9 mm handgun, a rifle and ammo for three additional guns – a .380, a .45 and a .40, which is the caliber of gun with which he accidentally shot himself in the leg.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/japanese-rating-agency-chief-recommends.html
Japanese Rating Agency Chief Recommends Marshall Plan for US
Check out the Bloomberg article attached…
reinvestor101 says:
December 24, 2008 at 9:04 am
I can’t enjoy Christmas because I can’t get the stuff I want. Is this what some of you wanted to see?
You shouldn’t have voted for George Bush twice. Blame yourself, jacka$$.
The scary thing about this blog is how smart so much of the advice shared here has been. I can not fathom a single business or economic news publication that has been even close. I suppose that pessimism doesn’t sell. Thank you Grim and all! Have a super holiday everyone and don’t forget to spread some holiday cheer with your 2009 fear!
“Japan should write-off its holdings of Treasuries because the U.S. government will struggle to finance increasing debt levels needed to dig the economy out of recession, said Akio Mikuni, president of credit rating agency Mikuni & Co.”
At another site, one poster quipped “What do they want for that – Alaska?”
Stu – I posted some holiday cheer for you and Gator @28.
No Pacific Northwest (kids/grandkids) for Christmas. 18 inches of snow – questionable flights etc. I have been invited to a friend’s winter/summer – whatever – home at Superstition Mountain in Arizona for a week..don’t leave for a few days yet. I’ve never been to Arizona…looking forward to it.
Cindy (61):
Liked the Twomey review. Ours is a 2006 so we’ll probably wait at least 5 years before we open it. I’m still quite impressed by the Coastline we had last night and no headache to be had the next morning, which can sometimes happen after drinking half a bottle of sub $10 wine. I’m looking forward to some good wine at Xmas eve tonight. We plan to gift about half the Coastline case to our friends and will probably pick up another later in the week. I’m really curious if it will age well. Will probably put two away into deep storage (bottom rack of wine cooler).
Flip gone Flop in Upper Snooty River, NJ
MLS # 2851326
Bought for $900k in September 2005
Did work on the house
For Sale now:
$725k
ouch
http://tv.winelibrary.com/2008/03/27/random-bag-of-wines-from-around-the-world-episode-431/
Stu – Do you like a “jammy” Zin? Check out his review of the Edmeades – Mendocino – this is 06 – I have had it several times – several years – I love a jammy zin.
The Edmeades only $14.00 for the 06.
Stu – Now this is what I call “holiday cheer.”
Plax is either a delusional paranoid or really a moron if he still had guns and ammo in his home after his arrest. He must still think he is going to be playing football again, since I hear he has been very busy getting therapy for his leg etc.
I would love to know who the hell was advising this guy, and why did it take three weeks to get a warrant to search his home?
He should have gone to Home Depot and purchased a nice angle grinder and bench grinder . The ammo could have simply been flushed. and, he could have spent a day or two over the last three weeks before the search warrant was executed cutting the guns up and grinding them down to metal shavings which would have looked nice for Christmas displayed in decorative red glass vase up on the fireplace mantle.
#65
Cindy, my God, that guy is looney… I’m hooked.
(69) Doyle – I just found him accidently today – Is that fun or what! He is from NEW JERSEY!
You folks rock over there…
Cindy,
He is funny and we do rock, but I’m not claiming him… he’s a Jets fan after all.
Alright, with that, I’m leaving work. I consider 2 hrs and 45 min a solid day on Christmas Eve.
Have a great Holiday everyone.
The residential real estate market may be dead in the water, but sales of million-dollar homes on the water are holding up quite well.
http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/185/story/354152.html
Holiday Shopping Report:
Just came back from Target in Fairfield (Route 46). Place was really slow, like a Sunday morning. Drove by the Willow Brook Mall, the parking lot was busy but not jammed.
Gonna be a blue Christmas this year!
Jumbo Mortgage Shoppers Get Little Relief From Rates
Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) — Jumbo mortgage shoppers in the most expensive U.S. housing markets such as New York and San Francisco aren’t getting much relief from lower borrowing costs.
The average 30-year fixed rate for home loans of more than $729,750 remains almost 2 percentage points above conforming rates and the spread between them may set a record this month, according to financial data firm BanxQuote.
More at: http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=home&sid=aHwIBpFQkEhM
Wht all the Miley Cyrus Hate?
Just go for the kill and have her pregnant by a black guy before the years end.
Seneca says:
December 24, 2008 at 8:16 am
(Very T*rdy) Prognostications
Oil June 30 @78
Gold June 30 @ 1020
DOW June 30 @ 6900
Hang Seng June 30 @ 13050
30-Year Fixed – 4.75%
… and now for the useful predictions.
Miley Cyrus has a fender bender
Miley Cyrus checks into rehab for an unspecified cause.
[63] Stu,
Not a bad drop for short money, no?
Poor guy. Stop living off credit cards. Don’t spend more money than you have. Use the tax loss write-off for stocks/bonds/funds losses.
Save. save. save. It’s only going to get worse.
“I’m having a miserable Christmas. The credit card companies have reduced my damn credit lines.”
50.5,
Cheer up.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPlcaKOU1Iw
I too thank the regulars here for putting intelligent argument backed with facts behind my years of paranoid disillusion and general WTF???-ness during this bubble.
Now I don’t sound as crazy at holiday parties.
Merry Hannukah and Happy Christmas.
Yikes:
mortgage quotes?
Get as many as you can.
If you spend 1/2 a day total (over a few weeks’ time) amassing quotes and picking the best one, I can practically gurantee that you will have “earned” several thousand dollars an hour for your time.
“I’ve exchanged my Brooks Brothers suit for some damn military fatigues and I’m going to live off the land and raid Clotpoll’s house periodically.”
– LOL! Now, I definitely know that you are Stephen Colbert. Can I get an autograph sometime?
Yikes,
I collected quotes from over ten mortgage lenders. The funny thing is, I went with E-loan who were the first to provide me with a quote. Don’t hesitate to take your low quote and ask if the others will beat it. Since this is your first mortgage, I’ll warn you now. Once you lock, don’t expect the mortgage lender to even call you back if you ask them any questions until the day of your closing. You’ll be lucky if you even get to speak with a human. If THEY need anything from YOU, they will call. Otherwise sit tight and chill, no contact means you gave them everything they need. And don’t sweat the closing. Everyone seems to make it a much bigger deal than it really is.
Good luck and congrats!
Oh yeah, one last piece of advice…take your time fixing up the place. You don’t need to upgrade everything within the first year or furnish every room by the end of the first month. I have a feeling that contractors will virtually be willing to work for food come next year.
My rule is 3 quotes for anything over $XXX.xx
When I was 20, it was $100.00
When I was 30, it was $500.00
Now that I am no longer 30 :), I have a cutoff of about 1K before I’ll start comparing prices.
See opportunity-cost.
Manhattan was jammed last night lots of tourists around Times Square, the Rocketts Christmas show was sold out, and as good as always, gotta love long legs high kicking in rhythm.
Did notice however that the fancier resturants were half empty, not the end of the world but not as jammed as they should be.
There was a long line for the $2.99 pizza and soda special outside the lincon tunnel entrance in the freezing cold, the cabbies seems to be going for the recession special.
http://video.aol.com/video-detail/merry-christmas-youtube-little-saint-nick-a-cappella/2279967729/?icid=VIDURVMUS11
Couldn’t resist…These look like some Jerseys Boys havin fun…
[76] TB
There is not hate for Miley here. I am just cribbing off the Disney PR Machine Playbook.
Page 47: Upon receiving one’s learner permit, all Disney “role model” stars will take part in a fender bender. Disney will provide the paparazzi as the “cause” of the minor incident. Under no circumstances should Disney’s “role models” engage in activities that would lead to a DUI or injury-causing accident. In the event this rule is broken, the Disney PR Machine will disavow any and all connection with the “role model” and cease to make attempts to prolong said “role model’s” career.
Page 102: A suite at Promises rehab facility will be booked in advance for all Disney Channel stars to be used for any type of rehabilitation provided details of said star’s affliction remain undisclosed.
Dude, she parties with Tyra Banks, dates a 20-year old and she is a child star. The odds are stacked against her. I don’t wish her any ill-will but if I am going to make prognostications, this one seems like easy money.
Hat tip to Joel McHale without whom I would have no idea how Miley spends her time off stage.
RE:#7 Refi boom-although my work load has picked up the last 3 weeks,it’s not enough to quit the my 3am till finished gig at UPS.
Speaking of appraisals, how have the numbers been coming in?
I thought this was a sick joke, but apparently it is true.
Welcome to New Britain: (BBC broadcasts alternative Christmas speech):
“Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will deliver Channel 4’s alternative to the Queen’s Christmas Day speech this year, it has announced.”
I suppose bin Laden and (Hezbollah chief) Nasrallah could not be reached.
44 & 45… Thanks John. I don’t know how much money I’ll be parking with the investment of the new bldg, so I got time :)
Does that mark a milestone here on njrereport?
Stupidist purchase ever? Did I jump the shark?
NOT ME!!!!
Since the talk keeps coming around to wines and the guy in the wine videos, I humbly submit this snip from the Wine Library e-newsletter:
“We’re pleased to announce that Wine Library’s own Gary Vaynerchuk, the star of Wine Library TV, will appear on The Today Show on NBC tomorrow morning, Christmas Day! The segment is expected to air between 8 and 9 AM. Tune in and share with your family this Christmas.”
Not that I would take time from my day to watch The Today Show.
That’s the SECOND TIME my single comments were split into 2 parts…
Yarghhhh!!
And one line was completely cut out….
I initially wrote:
“I cannot believe I bought a property off of Craigslist”
Merry Xmas all!!!!
Merry Christmas everyone!
Yikes-
Get a couple of mortgage quotes and tell the loser why they lost. They will know your credit score and treat you like roalty.
My bother is crazy and he will go with a worse deal because he likes the salesperson. After you lock you will never hear from them again.
As a salesrep(not mortgages) I will tell a customer if I can’t beat a deal and let them walk. But I will push for the best deals for my customers. There’s usually room to move.
My agents broker matched the deal that I had from someone on the street. I was young and never thought to ask her to beat it.
Just don’t be a prick about it.
“bernie madoff”
someone yesterday said that free markets are working. and i agreed with the bloke because banks are not lending to each other because they don’t trust eachother. this is an example of free markets working.
and how does this tie into Madoff?
well, Madoff was able to rip off markets through fraud. Fraud that was instutionalized.
He didn’t act alone. He was not a rogue/badapple. He had help. That help came from banks, traders, SEC, IRS, and intelliegence agencies (NSA or CIA, most likely CIA cause CIA has a really good money laundering relationship w/ Wall st. ex. drug money)
Massive fraud doesn’t work in “free” markets. Fraud just works in “manipulated” markets. Madoff got the rug pulled from him because of economic warfare. i.e. competition.
somebody, somewhere wanted to bring it down.
Competition is what is needed in a “free market”.
Are we a total free market? no, otherwise there would be no profits.
But, a shakeout of madoff is a good thing in my eyes.
but, there is a twist…
SAS
and the financial fraud was alot larger than 50 billion.
Fraud is always taken from other areas, and piled in.
the 50 billion that you hear is only 50 billion taken from one area (Spielberg, rich jewish fat cats, some foundation).
You haven’t heard from the media (and you won’t) what & where the others areas of the fraud comes from, and you won’t hear the sum total. or the total “pile”
SAS
“but, there is a twist”
if Bush pardons madoff, the twist will be revealed.
SAS
Any other night shifters still at work?
sas: o is more likely to pardon madoff (he was major liberal fundraiser for dems..of course you won’t find this in drive by o-media)
“Financial Times of London Columnist Foresees World Government”
http://tinyurl.com/7v3nt3
“sas: o is more likely to pardon madoff”
i guess, no matter whom does the pardon. If madoff gets the pardon, thats the big wait & see.
SAS
Sas (aka Oliver Stone) please stop this. You’re trying to scare the bejesus out of people. Like I said the other day, Madoff is a rogue player and did this all by himself, just like Oswald killed Kennedy all by himself. Next thing you’ll be trying to say that Rene-Thierry Magon de la Villehuchet got murdered and it just was made to look like suicide. Please stop this. Look, there are dedicated loners out there who are up to no damn good.
What are you trying to say? That Madoff operating like a bank? We all know the bank lends out all the money and your deposit is not actually there. No, he didn’t do that and you need to stop trying to scare people into wetting their damn pants here. Hell even if he did, he might qualify for some damn TARP money.
This is an ultimatum Sas. If you post another conspiracy theory scaring people, I and a bulldozer will be on the next thing smoking to Australia.
Don’t believe me? Well, try me.
sas says:
December 24, 2008 at 7:37 pm
“Financial Times of London Columnist Foresees World Government”
http://tinyurl.com/7v3nt3
sas, you’re really starting to get on my nerves. How dare you accuse the CIA of being involved in drugs? I’m of the mind to come to Australia right now and bulldoze your house.
Look, everyone knows that these damn punks on the corner with their pants hanging half way down their asses are the one’s entirely responsible for the drug scourge here in America. I don’t know how they get the damn stuff in here from outside the country, but everyone knows they did it. Let’s keep the damn focus where it needs to be and build some more jails.
sas says:
December 24, 2008 at 7:18 pm
“bernie madoff”
…Madoff was able to rip off markets through fraud. Fraud that was instutionalized.
He didn’t act alone. He was not a rogue/badapple. He had help. That help came from banks, traders, SEC, IRS, and intelliegence agencies (NSA or CIA, most likely CIA cause CIA has a really good money laundering relationship w/ Wall st. ex. drug money)
Chi- I nominate your eharmony post from yesterday as post of the month. Second place is John’s post last week about the stripper with rotten eggs from getting 5s and 20s stuffed in her pants.
Merry Christmas to everyone!
Feliz Navidad!
victorian:
С Рождеством! :)
o is more likely to pardon madoff (he was major liberal fundraiser for dems..of course you won’t find this in drive by o-media)
Of course he is. First day of office probably.
Madoff’s the guy hiding his birth certificate for O, so he owes him.
Avoiding Instant-Status Traps and the Bernie Madoffs Who Set Them
In his book of the same name, status anxiety is defined by author Alain de Botton as a worry “that we are in danger of failing to conform to the ideals of success laid down by our society and that we may as a result be stripped of dignity and respect.”
Status anxiety loomed large in the housing boom for people who did sensible things. They looked askance at their used Hondas, humble dwellings, conservative fixed-rate mortgages, and budget hotels at Disneyworld, and, finding them deficient amid the neighbors’ BMWs, McMansions, and forays to France, tried in vain to suppress a creeping apprehension that they had gotten something terribly wrong.
(Now they realize the neighbors did it by surfing a tsunami of debt, but it brings them little comfort, since their jobs and home values are in jeopardy thanks to the follies of the foolish and greedy.)
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/moneyhappy/129866
hey. santa just flew over Newark!!!
SAS
well, just got done watching “Its a Wonderful Life” while maken the brine for the turkeys.
I got 2 big turkeys for tomorrow.
having me daughters over, Juanita’s family, an old war buddy, x-coworker, and a few mexican blokes I invited over from a safe house.
SAS
reinvestor101,
“This is an ultimatum Sas. If you post another conspiracy theory scaring people, I and a bulldozer will be on the next thing smoking to Australia.
Don’t believe me? Well, try me”
i like your posts bloke. and its Christmas eve, so merry chirstmas to you & wish you all the best.
I will just pretend I didn’t read your ultimatum comment.
:)
SAS
ok, i gotta go now.
I have to put presents under the tree & stuff my wife stockings.
SAS
merry chirstmas all!
SAS
Merry Christmas all. Stu, Lil Gator and I attended a Polish Christmas Eve Wigilia feast. We had too much wine and too many homemade pierogies, but a good time was had by all.
BTW – the Coastline Paso Robles was a big, big hit. Thanks for the recommendation!
merry chrismas all.
Clotpoll – I hope your FIL is okay. while you’re in FL, try to get Mike Morgan’s autograph!
John – thank you for posting those bond sites. I’m going to send them to my father, who is about to retire. somehow you make bonds sound worth knowing about.
there is a very disturbing link that Denninger just described; someone who plans to post the names and home addresses of all bankers whom he deems to be criminal. the idea being to provoke the populace to punish these people, since the authorities aren’t. yikes. Denninger points out that this is a very good reason for the govt. to start prosecuting the guilty; to maintain faith in the system.
p.s. my husband’s dream job is in NJ. we may leave CA one of these years. in the meantime . . .
Merry Christmas all!
“hey. santa just flew over Newark!!!”
Is his sled missing any hub caps?
schabadoo:
“Of course he is. First day of office probably.
Madoff’s the guy hiding his birth certificate for O, so he owes him.”
It seems that Madoff family broke the law in campaign donations too (at least his son Peter by donating 3 x $2,300 to Hillary). Here are Bernie’s big contributions:
MADOFF, BERNARD L NEW YORK,NY 10022 BERNARD L. MADOFF INVEST.-SEC./CHAI 9/12/08 $25,000 Democratic Senatorial Campaign Cmte (D)
MADOFF, BERNARD L NEW YORK,NY 10022 BERNARD L. MADOFF INVEST.-SEC./CHAI 5/4/07 $25,000 Democratic Senatorial Campaign Cmte (D)
$50,000 for the Democratic party committee alone. Sounds like another Marc Rich story.
Jamil/Schabadoo:
Maybe Madoff (and others) gave to the dems since, unlike you fools, they realized the repubs had no chance in hell of winning. From my perspective, they were much smarter than you two. Plus, to merely suggest that Madoff will be pardoned just makes you look even more foolish. Put your money where your mouth is. I’ll give you both 100 to 1 that he is NOT pardoned. Take the bet or shut up! Merry Christmas.
Here’s something for Jamil. GWB took vacations in TX and send the taxpayer a bill. 0bama is going to charge the taxpayer for trips to Hawaii. How much is a round trip on AirForce One to Hawaii?
http://www.nytimes.com/pages/politics/index.html
Stu: It were the lib fools in this blog who started to talk about pardoning of Madoff (by GWB). I merely pointed out the lunacy of that idea, given Madoff’s political activism.
Merry Christmas Everyone! Guess what Bill Gross got for Christmas ??
– That’s correct. Your money! And your children’s. Ho ho ho!
GMAC Approved as Bank Holding Company
GMAC’s request was approved even though the lender didn’t satisfy the capital requirements laid out when it applied to become a bank in November. GMAC, which is also the parent of mortgage lender Residential Capital LLC, said it needed three-quarters of investors that held $38 billion in bonds to exchange the notes as part of a plan to reduce debt. As of Dec. 17, holders of 58 percent of eligible notes had tendered.
Investors including Pacific Investment Management Co. balked because the terms would have locked in losses on the existing debt. Pimco runs the world’s biggest bond fund, managed by Bill Gross.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atcqDsmIMoss
Frank: This reminds me of 2004 when Dem congressmen and NY Slimes went ballistic wrt Bush having (relatively modest) inaugurals during the “economic hard times”. They demanded that there will be no inaugural at all. Strange, I haven’t heard that talk now. Maybe the economic situation is now better so extravagant celebrations and massive bill to taxpayers is fine. Everything is relative..
“GWB took vacations in TX and send the taxpayer a bill.”
– I was under the impression that he took vacations in D.C.
Buy now, before it’s too late.
Home prices may rise on mortgage refinancing boom
Veteran banking analyst Richard Bove said he expects housing prices in the United States to stabilize and/or rise after a likely boom in mortgage refinance, as mortgage rates fall and loan applications increase.
“It is quite likely that the country is about to enter a new mortgage refinance boom,” the Ladenburg Thalmann analyst wrote in a note to clients.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4BN37420081224
New York Times Co November ad revenue falls 20 pct
Nobody reads left wing papers.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN2426545720081224
“to merely suggest that Madoff will be pardoned just makes you look even more foolish. Put your money where your mouth is. I’ll give you both 100 to 1 that he is NOT pardoned. Take the bet or shut up”
it was me bloke whom origianlly suggested that Madoff will be pardoned.
I think there is a chance he will be, all be it a small one.
I consider it a stretch, but knowing what I know, i know its not off the table.
SAS
hey frank,
i was thinking just now about some of your past posts. and i indirectly agree with you on some level.
your correct when you say “what ression?”
because so far, we have just seen the effects of the economy collapse, we haven’t seen the effect (yet) of the real coming recession in the real economy.
:)
SAS
i better get the pies out of the oven.
apple cranberry pie.
my favorite, next to rubarb pie.
:)
SAS
let me clean up my post:
because so far, we have just seen the effects of the collapse of the bubble economy, we haven’t seen the effects (yet) of the coming recession in the real economy.
we aren’t in a recession (yet) if we just look & speak in terms of the real economy.
but, that is what i believe we will see in 09. the slowdown & ramifications of the real economy.
09, more of 08, but alot meaner.
SAS
“09”
a return to real assets.
hint:get to know your local farmers.
SAS
a return to free markets?
the fraud continued when the investors were maken money, they had the don’t ask, don’t tell attitude.
“NYU Claims $24 Million Loss as Madoff-Related Lawsuits Mount”
http://tinyurl.com/9trdf3
SAS
sas: “we aren’t in a recession (yet) if we just look & speak in terms of the real economy.”
People in this blog (which is supposed to be doom and gloom blog) have recently been busy debating LCD TVs and wine. That may be the sign of Great Depression in some circles, but once the debate here is focused on survival and getting food, I’ll agree we are in deep recession.
Jamil,
My apologies.
#128 jamil: Perhaps those of us here dbating wine and flat screen TV’s (lik me), have lived within our means, and as such can treat ourselves. I will be buying a flat screen, the difference is I will be paying cash, and can afford to.
The numbers clearly poin to a deep recession cannot hlep it if people are in denial.
“People in this blog (which is supposed to be doom and gloom blog) have recently been busy debating LCD TVs and wine. That may be the sign of Great Depression in some circles, but once the debate here is focused on survival and getting food, I’ll agree we are in deep recession.”
If people are focusing on survival and getting food, I suspect this blog won’t be here.
Why is it that people seem to be incapable of grasping the fact that just because all economic activity hasn’t come to a standstill doesn’t mean we aren’t in a recession?
snark
We can’t be in a recession, because Warren Buffet bought a new car!
/snark
140, 141: My point was not denying that we are in recession (we sure are, as official stats are likely to show soon), but it is just funny that people are debating luxury items while supposedly being in deep recession.
I still have old-fashion TV (yes, it has colors and sound) as I don’t care too much about TV. “Bondathon” on Bravo right now (free cable) looks fine to me even with this 4 year old TV.
sorry, Bondathon is on Spike, not Bravo. I’m rooting for SPECTRE. I wonder if they are still in business?
“The numbers clearly poin to a deep recession cannot hlep it if people are in denial”
agreed bloke. The collapse of the bubble economy, leads to a recession in the real economy.
My arguement, and I think its the point that Frank makes (although he may not realize it), is the REAL recession hasn’t really started yet. but yes, we are just starting to see it. Starting with weak retail #, and come tax time in March & April its going to be very telling, that is when I think we will start to see the unraveling is the real economy (bankrupt municipalties)
I don’t think anyone is in denial, maybe not even Frank?
I think we are just trying to distinguish the two. yes, the 2 are wrapped like a DNA coil, but the biologist will tell you, that there are the backbone strands of the DNA and then there is the bonding of nucleotide bases to the strands
Those knuckleheads in fiance & others whom lost there jobs this year were most likely apart of the bubble economics.
people talking on this blog about wine & LCD TVs are more likely apart of the real economy, so haven’t felt a pinch, yet, but they will. we all will to a certain degree.
I am not sure I am maken sense, in & out of the kitchen cooking, and enjoying a bottle of wine.
SAS
then…
there is the black economy.
where you find fraud, tax shelters, money laundering, drug money, prostitution, etc..etc..
don’t fool yourself, that money combines to well over a trillion.
and there are those on this blog whom engage in that too. in one form another.
i admit, i have in the past. never said I was a saint.
SAS
SAS,
You much be drinking too much cognac while you are cooking pies. Not in recession?
Jobless benefits are at a 26 year high, consumers cut spending for the fifth consecutive month, GDP fell 0.5%, auto sales are off 40%, 25 year lows, consumer confidence is plummeting and “real” umemployment is close to 12%, worse than 1990. Do we need unemployment to reach depression levels, 25%, before this is termed a recession?
http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/sentiment/consumer_confidence.htm
that’s must.
“140, 141: My point was not denying that we are in recession (we sure are, as official stats are likely to show soon), but it is just funny that people are debating luxury items while supposedly being in deep recession.”
In case you missed it, the stats already show it. It started a year ago.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/01/AR2008120101365.html
148 Hobokenite:
It’s not “official” stats (2 consecutive quarters of neg growth). From the article: “The NBER is a private, nonprofit group based in Cambridge, Mass.”. Many private groups and persons have made their own recession calls for years.
Bob: I think sas’s and many others point was not to deny that we are in recession, but just to highlight that many people (including many on this blog) are not really feeling it (as they are debating new LCD TVs or wine).
The NBER is the official arbiter of the start and end of recessions. The 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP is just a rough estimator.
Sorry if you didn’t get the memo.
150 Hobokenite:
Q2 was positive and Q3 negative (as is likely Q1/09) so the official recession, as usually understood (and recorded), is has not yet been declared.
wikipedia says: “The NBER uses a broader definition of a recession than other economists. The traditional definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of a shrinking gross domestic product (GDP).[1] However, the NBER defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”
Here are my thoughts about spending money on “luxury” goods, recession or not.
Is any TV a luxury? Yes, just as are many things that people think that they just can’t live without.
I actually lived much of my life without TV, and I did just fine. I grew up in north Alabama at a time that there were no TV stations within range. A station opened in Huntsville when I was 11 years old, and, as we lived about 30 miles away, my family finally got a TV. It had a click, click, click tuner and a monstrous antenna on the roof.
My own first television was maybe a 9″ or 10″ black and white Panasonic that my uncle gave to me about three years after I had finished college. It had a rabbit ear antenna, and it got maybe three or four channels. Since I could watch Dick Cavett, Great American Performances and Masterpiece Theatre, I was fine with that. It would have been much nicer to see the Paul Taylor dancers in color, though.
If you have any sense of American TV history you can tell what period I was talking about.
When my little Panasonic finally died I simply lived without TV for a few years.
I bought my second TV, a 13″ color model, for my cat sitter in 1999. I used to travel quite a lot. My cat sitter said that she would happily spend more time with my cats if she had anything to do other than just look at the cats. So I opened my wallet and spent the $100.
My third TV was given to my wife as a birthday present in 2003. It was a 23-incher. We have just retired that one in favor of our new 46″ LCD HDTV. We discussed the matter at length before buying it with cash from our discretionary funds. We watch a lot of movies at home, so we decided that it would be money well spent.
We have just one car, one that is considered a luxury make, that I bought new in 1998. It just turned over 163,000 miles. The car still performs excellently and is reliable because it was a very good car when new, and I have taken exceptional care of it. We’ll continue with that one car until we have some compelling reason to replace it or to buy a second one.
We don’t spend money lavishly on much of anything. We travel quite a lot, but on the low. We do this not just for financial reasons, but because that is the way we prefer to travel. My philosophy is that the more money one spends while traveling, the less likely it is that the desired experience will be found.
My wife and I both enjoy cooking, and we’re both excellent cooks. I rarely enjoy eating out as much as I enjoy my own (or my wife’s) food at home. So we don’t spend a lot of money on restaurants, but we do drink really good wine at home. We go out to eat maybe once or twice a month, and that’s usually for sushi.
Most people who see our life probably think that we earn 1/3 of what we actually do. We have no need to put on a show for anybody. We live modestly, save and invest appropriately, and occasionally treat ourselves to a luxury.
Unless one is genuinely poverty stricken, or ridiculously wealthy, I think that this is a reasonable approach to balancing long-term concerns with the occasional treat that makes today’s life something more than merely sustaining a pulse.
There’s a golf store on Rt 22 in Green Brook having a liquidation sale. I may go pick up some shiny new toys tomorrow.
“You much be drinking too much cognac while you are cooking pies. Not in recession?”
i must no maken myself clear.
we had a collapse of bubble economy, next will be slowdown of real economy.
2 waves.
yes, we are just entering recession.
my point is that I feel like we have just begun a recession. thats why it hasn’t hurt many.
a year from now, when recession is in full swing, i think i may go with one turkey, instead of 2
The bureau’s seven-member Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is officially charged with determining when the U.S. is in a recession, announced yesterday that the last peak in economic activity occurred in December 2007, marking that month as the start of the current recession.
http://www.thecrimson.com/article.aspx?ref=525653
Hi all….
Merry Christmas from da pit/i>!!
sl
oops
italics off
Hobokenite: So Crimson says it is the official. Everybody has always considered the official definition of recession as two consecutive negative GDP growth quarters. I’ll leave it to that.
So there was no recession in 2001?
Hobokenite: I didn’t invent the official definition of recession. I never said it is a good definition, but it is the one considered official.
Ask any economist if there was a recession in 2001. Or call up the clowns on CNBC.
sas-
We may go Turkey next year. My in-laws make sure that everything is super well done before eating. Waste of a perfectly good rib roast.
Great wine is nice. We’ve been to Napa and brought back some tasty suggestions. However I’m more of a beer guy and cheap beer at that. I really prefer lighter beers, so thats what I buy. We don’t drink much anyway.
http://www.clipsyndicate.com/publish/video/765442/it_s_official_u_s_is_in_recession
This AP report indicates that NBER includes unemployment in their determination.
I have another post – let me find it – with some ugly unemployment figures – comparing previous recessions.
It has felt like a recession here for over a year. We have an unemployment rate of 8.4 or so (5.? one year ago) and folks are just leaving for work elsewhere.
I worked for United California Bank from 1973 – 1976 and I watched so many businesses go under. But then, the culprit was inflation – not deflation….
http://www.mybudget360.com/recessions-the-last-5-recessions-and-measuring-how-long-we-will-have-job-losses-this-will-be-the-worst-recession-since-world-war-ii/
unemployment over the last five recessions
(157) Still
Uggg. Work – I can’t even imagine the crazy stuff you are going to see tonight.
A day with family – A day with friends – Home at last. I miss my girls…alas…February – I’ll see them again in February…
(152) New in NJ – I found your post so interesting – Thanks for sharing…I agree with your “reasonable approach.”
SAS – You’ll like this idea – I think. My daughter sent her own coffee….she’s a barista. Well, she roasted it that is (got green beans through Mississippi) Anyway, she said she roasted it herself in a popcorn popper! Can you beat that. The old “air pop” sort with vents that she bought at the Goodwill.
Merry Christmas everyone.
I am in India for 3 weeks. It is amazing. The housing crash and economic downturn is so severe no one can believe it.
Unless one is genuinely poverty stricken, or ridiculously wealthy, I think that this is a reasonable approach to balancing long-term concerns with the occasional treat that makes today’s life something more than merely sustaining a pulse.
You can support the economy far more than what you’re doing. You had the money to buy some cats. If you have the money for that, you can find the money to buy someone’s house (i.e. mine); sometime far more significant than feeding some felines. It’s people like you who will prolong this recession.
Vulture.
bairen says:
December 25, 2008 at 4:59 pm
There’s a golf store on Rt 22 in Green Brook having a liquidation sale. I may go pick up some shiny new toys tomorrow.
(168) SG – Merry Christmas…
“I’m in India for 3 weeks.” Work? Family? Vacation? Wow.
sometime=something
Merry Christmas Reinvestor 101.
Think there’s no friggin’ recession? Come down here to Miami, take a drive around, and tell me what you think then.
Street after street of “see-throughs”, all with a pretty little crane on top. Seems like a big waste of a crane, just to have a place to hang a “Now Leasing” banner.
Just as Morgan describes, it looks like all the non-recourse money is just about used up, as developers finish off these useless projects and walk away. No wonder the commercial RE bailout clamor has already started. It’s gonna be brutal.
SG, what are the shop owners saying besides the normal?
Reinvestor, can you imagine the putrid stench of rotten flesh without vultures? Although, the parkway might smell better.
Besides, I love the way they circle and hover in their shiny, slicked back look. They remind me of Andy Garcia.
#170
Yo re101,
Love the new handle you gave me. My Best Christmas gift this year.
(174) Merry Christmas Clot!
Oh man – that must look surreal after hearing all about it – then seeing it… Is your father in law better? Everything okay?
http://tinyurl.com/7bzkhn
US retailers sales plummet. Down 4% YOY.
And that’s with all the after Christmas sales starting after Thanksgiving. The real recession is about to get going.
It started for me this summer when I got laid off. Found a new job, but am making less.
(175) Pat “They remind me of Andy Garcia.”
Good one…
#174 Clot,
Maybe they can make another pos Mel Gibson/Danny Glover movie and implode some of those towers for the finale. They took out an abandoned mcmansionvile for one of those pos LW movies, why not a tower for LW 6 or whatever they are up to.
Hope FIL is doing better.
Lady, are you trying to crack on me again? I suppose that when you compare me with these hardankles here, I must look pretty attractive. That’s certainly understandable when I consider the people that frequent here like barienvulture, Sas, 3corncob and etc.!
Merry Christmas, Cindy and best wishes to you and yours for the New Years!
Cindy says:
December 25, 2008 at 7:44 pm
Merry Christmas Reinvestor 101.
(181) Reinvestor – Thank you -We love ya man…
This is why people like Barienvulture disgust me. Same applies to this new guy who prefers to house cats rather than support the economy by buying my damn house.
You know what? I put cats, vultures and snakes all in the same damn league. All of them are lowdown and sneaky.
Pat says:
December 25, 2008 at 7:49 pm
SG, what are the shop owners saying besides the normal?
Reinvestor, can you imagine the putrid stench of rotten flesh without vultures? Although, the parkway might smell better.
Besides, I love the way they circle and hover in their shiny, slicked back look. They remind me of Andy Garcia.
http://www.ft.com/cms/bfba2c48-5588-11dc-b971-0000779fd2ac.html?_i_referralObject=972271299&fromSearch=n
This guy looks like he has basically “had it” with the whole stocks, bonds, oil, banks deal. “If you put your money here – forget it …if you put your there – too bad.”
Mostly, I just like to hear his voice….
Merry Christmas, sl!
169 re-
I get my cats from shelters. In my opinion it’s silly to go out and spend hundreds of dollars for a specific breed of any companion animal. That’s either pure vanity, immaturity, insanity or some combination. I was living alone and I just wanted some company. I’ve had between one and three cats at a time for 20 years, and I’ve kept each one until his or her natural time to go. I still have two, so they, by proxy, are supporting our economy to the tune of probably $20 per month for food, plus the occasional $200 vet visit.
If you will sell me your house in a way that my cost will be a similar $40 per month, I’ll take it off your hands tomorrow. Wanna talk?
I have owned four personal houses plus a couple of rentals in the past. I sold my last house in Cary, NC in 2004 when I took a job in Arlington, VA. It was a bit painful because I had my NC house built just as I wanted it, and I expected to live there pretty much forever. But the economy in that area is tech heavy, and that area lost a lot of jobs in the tech collapse. I could no longer make a decent living as a consultant. The local housing market there also hit a slump because of the job losses. I sold my house for $5K more than I paid for it five years earlier, and I had put a considerable amount of money into landscaping in the meantime. I figure I lost about $25K.
So I took my Arlington job. The DC area housing market there was already skewed by the time I arrived there, and I felt no need to participate. We happily rented for the two years that we lived there and saved probably $2000 per month compared to what we would have been paying for a mortgage and other related costs. We lived in a semi-luxury high-rise apartment and paid $1750 per month. Comparable condos in that area were selling for between $400K and $500K. Figure that one out for yourself.
We moved to NJ in mid-2006, so my username here no longer really represents my status. Everybody knows now that that was the peak of insanity for housing prices. All I knew then was that I wasn’t buying anything in this market. We rented again, and once again saved around $1500 per month by doing so. I was looking for any shred of rationality about the prices when I found this blog. I have been a faithful lurker ever since.
Incidentally, I feel no obligation to spend a penny to “support the economy” just because you tell me that I should. I alone determine what I should and should not do.
#175 Pat – Check out “Ice Age 2” You’ll like the scene of the vultures doing a Busby Berkeley swooping, dancing in the air routine as they sing, “Food, glorious food! Flesh picked from the dead ones!”
(186) New
Sounds like you’ve lived a lot of places…So how do you like New Jersey?
166 Cindy-
Thanks for the kind words. Your warmth and good sense come through in every post.
The only reason that I don’t post more is that I don’t have much of value to add. If I can’t add something I just STFU.
I come from a different world from most of the regular participants here. But this is far and away my favorite blog because most of the participants here make complete sense.
As for the others, you know who you are.
188 Cindy-
Wonderful, except that I hate the f’n cold.
And my short housing resume above doesn’t even begin to cover it. When I think about how much I hate moving, and how many times I’ve moved, I just wonder how this could have happened to me.
(189) New – How kind of you. I usually don’t have the time to devote to reading and posting (plus I’m brain-dead after work)but I’m on vacation just now. I so enjoy everyone.
I have NEVER learned so much in such a short amount of time – I’m only working on year #2 – some have been here forever and a day.
Your insight and level-headed approach give us all hope you know. I see the “I’m not going to spend just to support the economy” mentality spreading – it’s a good thing.
(190) New –
Well, it will soon be a good time to buy, if you are still so inclined. Just vacation in the winter???
I get to go to a friend’s house near Phoenix, Arizona on Saturday – for one whole week!
Heated pool….lounging around…I’ll check out the RE around there and give a report.
191 Cindy-
I have never been a lavish spender (OK, just occasionally), so I guess maybe I was ahead of the trend.
I always found the consumer mentality in the USA to be a little bit disgusting, as in my pile of crap is bigger than your pile of crap. It’s still just crap.
At a friend’s house – earlier today – I checked out a Christmas card that had two “flies” ( bug-eyed creatures ) sitting in their chairs next to a Christmas tree opening presents…
The caption: “Look, more crap.”
Flies on crap..
193 Cindy-
We often take a winter vacation. Our new HDTV ate most of our winter 2008/2009 mad money, though.
In Januray 2006, our last winter in VA, we took our vacation in Isla Mujeres, a little island a few miles from Cancun. It wasn’t long after hurricane Wilma, so the local tourist trade was really depressed. We both went for a week, all inclusive including air, for $1600.
We spent a couple of weeks in Brazil during the winter holidays in 2006/2007. We rented a small farmhouse in Meaipe, near Guarapari, Espirito Santo for one week. The property keepers showed up with a five-gallon bucket of fresh fruit from the farm every morning. Mangos, passion fruit, caju, bananas, coconuts… Then we went down to Rio de Janeiro and spent New Years on Copacabana beach – stopped off in Buzios for one night on the way. The fireworks at Copacabana were the best I have ever seen. There were seven launch barges just off the beach, and for 30 minutes our entire field of view was stuff blowing up in the air. When the fireworks finished and the crowd thinned, there were thousands of flowers in the surf. They are brought by the people and given to Yemanja, the macumba goddess who is the sea.
We walked over to Ipanema around 1 am, where the Black Eyed Peas were playing a free concert on the beach. We got reasonably close, but we still couldn’t get onto the beach to see the stage because of the crowd. But there was an apartment right across the street that had a big screen TV, so we watched the concert on somebody’s TV while listening to the music live.
We got back to our apartment at 6 am.
Another reason our winter vacation is suspended this year is that we went back to Meaipe for a friend’s wedding this past June. Even though she got married on the first day of winter, it was warmer there than it was here that day.
I can see retirement coming, so I’m not sure that we’ll buy anything in the USA. We have already bought a place in Brazil, the house that belonged to my wife’s mother who died 15 years ago. I’d also like to get a small farm like the one we rented a few years ago.
oh man, i am so full.
party was alot of fun.
those mexican fellows are real nice guys. Juanita’s family is my family too.
my daughters were over, makes me so happy to see them once again.
my two sons couldn’t make it over.
one is expecting, so didn’t want to travel. the other, i think just wasn’t in the mood to visit.
SAS
Cindy,
your post sounds very nice
:)
SAS
“Think there’s no friggin’ recession?”
i think the recession will get alot meaner come tax time.
in 09 alot of people will be coming Jesus.
SAS
like we said in nam:
“ain’t no atheists is foxholes”
SAS
“Holiday Sales in U.S. Fell as Much as 4%, SpendingPulse Says”
http://tinyurl.com/94bgwo
SG,
Are Indians in India still looking to emigrate to the US, or do they feel that their job prospects are better now in India?
From Friday’s WSJ:
Home-Mortgage Rate Hits Fresh Low, 5.14%
By AMY HOAK
Fixed-rate home mortgage rates fell again this week, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage setting another record low, at least since Freddie Mac began doing its weekly survey in the early 1970s.
The 30-year averaged 5.14% for the week ended Dec. 24, down from last week’s 5.19% average, according to the Freddie Mac survey released Wednesday. It was more than a full percentage point below its 6.17% average a year ago, and hasn’t been lower since Freddie started doing its rate survey in 1971.
Fifteen-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.91% this week, down from 4.92% last week and 5.79% a year ago. The mortgage hasn’t been lower since April 1, 2004, when it averaged 4.84%.
Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 5.49% this week, down from 5.6% last week and 5.9% a year ago. One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs averaged 4.95%, up slightly from 4.94% last week yet still down from 5.53% a year ago.
“Interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages eased for the eighth straight week” and set a record low since Freddie Mac’s survey began in 1971, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac chief economist, in a statement.
“Real GDP growth fell 0.5% in the third quarter of the year, pulled down by the largest drop in consumer spending since the second quarter of 1980. The market consensus calls for an even larger decline in the last three months of the year,” he said.
And the housing market continues to contract, Mr. Nothaft added.
To obtain the rates in the weekly survey, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage required payment of an average 0.8 point, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage required an average 0.7 point and the ARMs required an average 0.6 point. A point is 1% of the mortgage amount, charged as prepaid interest.
In a separate survey Wednesday by the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage applications were up a seasonally adjusted 48% last week, compared with the week before.
Worst Holiday Sales on Record, Luxury Sales Down 35%
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123025036865134309.html
“I grew up in north Alabama at a time that there were no TV stations within range.”
New [152],
You didn’t watch Roll Tide Roll every Saturday in the fall?
“Home-Mortgage Rate Hits Fresh Low, 5.14%”
Scribe,
It’s Merry Christmas for “qualified” buyers; record inventory, 20% of mortgages underwater, declining prices and most important, the other side of the table? A ton of 50.5’s getting pummelled. BOOYAAA.
I can’t wait to see O-bamas package. I heard it’s huge!
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