Just a quick note on the regional data:
Northeast was the worst performer in terms of sales in December.
Seasonally adjusted sales down 1.4% from the prior month and 14.3% from last December. Significantly worse than the -3.5% year-over-year figure seen nationwide.
Median prices in the Northeast are down 7.8% in the past year and average prices are down 7.9%. From a pricing perspective, the Northeast is still showing smaller price declines than other regions on a year over year basis.
Condos and Coops are performing worse than single family homes in the Northeast. Sales of Condos are down 24.4% year over year, and median price is down 9.1%. Over the same period, sales of single family homes are down 9.8%, and the median price is down 8.3%.
Now, you are probably looking at the price breakdown and scratching your head. If condo prices are down 9.1% and SFH prices down 8.3%, why is the overall median price in the Northeast down only 7.8%? This is due to mix-shift. The median is being elevated by significantly fewer sales of lower priced properties. With condo sales down almost 25% year over year, the mix of properties being sold has shifted enough to keep the median higher than it would have been if the mix had not shifted.
From MarketWatch:
Existing-home sales rise 6.5% as prices plunge
For full year, sales fall 13% while prices drop a record 9.3%
Sales of existing homes rose 6.5% in December to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.74 million as prices continued to plunge at a record pace, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday.
Sales in December were down 3.5% from the previous December.
For 2008 as a whole, sales fell 13.1% to 4.91 million, the industry trade group said. November and December were the weakest sales months of the year on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The median sales price fell to $175,400 in December, down a record 15.3% compared with a year earlier. For all of 2008, median prices dropped 9.3% to $198,600, the lowest level since 2004.
The price decline is likely the largest since the Great Depression in the 1930s, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the trade group.
About 45% of the transactions in December were considered distress sales, either a short sale or a home in foreclosure. Many foreclosure sales are handled outside the realtors’ system and are not reported in this report.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Existing Home Sales Rise on Record Price Slump
Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. unexpectedly rose from a record low, propelled by the biggest slump in prices since the Great Depression as foreclosures surged.
Purchases rose 6.5 percent to an annual rate of 4.74 million from 4.45 million in November that was less than previously estimated, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median price dropped 15 percent from a year ago, the biggest decline since records began in 1968 and probably the biggest in seven decades, according to the group.
“You have to put it in the context of an even steeper decline for the previous month,” said David Sloan, a senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, who had the highest projection in the Bloomberg News survey. “The net trend is still negative. It does seem that some cheap prices are attracting buyers. I don’t think it’s a clear sign of a revival in the housing market. The housing market is very weak.”
…
Sales were down 3.5 percent compared with a year earlier. Resales averaged 4.91 million in 2008, down 13 percent from 2007 and the fewest in 11 years.
FRIST!
From Bloomberg:
Summers Says Economy Entering a ‘Difficult’ Time
The U.S. economy faces “very difficult” months ahead, requiring quick passage of a stimulus package and a retooled bank rescue plan aimed at reviving lending, said Lawrence Summers, director of the White House’s National Economic Council.
“The next few months are, no question, going to be very, very difficult and it may be longer than that,” said Summers, appearing on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
From the AP:
Economic forecasters see more job cuts ahead
It’s shaping up to be another lousy year for workers, with more companies expecting to cut payrolls in the months ahead.
That’s part of the latest outlook from forecasters in a survey to be released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics that depicts the worst business conditions in the U.S. since the report’s inception in 1982.
Thirty-nine percent predicted job reductions through attrition or “significant” layoffs over the next six months, up from 32 percent in the previous survey in October. Around 45 percent in the current survey anticipated no change in hiring plans, while roughly 17 percent thought hiring would increase.
The recession, which started in December 2007, and is expected to stretch into this year, has been a job killer. The economy lost 2.6 million jobs last year, the most since 1945. The unemployment rate jumped to 7.2 percent in December, the highest in 16 years, and is expected to keep climbing.
“Job losses accelerated in the fourth quarter, and the employment outlook for the next six months has weakened further,” said Sara Johnson, NABE’s lead analyst on the survey and an economist at IHS Global Insight.
Wells Fargo May Face New Doubt About Wisdom of Wachovia Deal
“They’re going to be under tremendous pressure to explain clearly the rationale for the merger and how they’re dealing with billions of dollars of tainted, toxic assets,” said Frederic Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego, Oregon, which manages $20 billion. “Every bank that’s reported has missed their numbers by a country mile and indicated more reserve write-off requirements are coming.”
Wells Fargo may report a 9.3 percent decline in fourth- quarter profit to $1.23 billion, or 33 cents a share, according to the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That doesn’t include Wachovia, acquired this month. With foreclosures at a record and the jobless rate at a 16-year high, analysts have speculated San Francisco-based Wells Fargo will need to raise more cash and cut its dividend to cover defaults from Wachovia’s $122 billion option adjustable-rate mortgage portfolio.
N-Play REO
Interesting concept. It seems they will offer online bidding for Bank owned properties.
May be Banks should put those homes on Ebay.
Who was looking for a a bigscreen LCD for under 1K???
saw a 50″ Visio LCD for $999 at Costco yesterday.
Banks to unleash flood of REOs
Auction boom
Regardless of any pullbacks by lenders, Tranzon and other auctioneers had a banner year in 2008, and expect this year will be even better.
“I think we’ll see a lot more properties moving to auction as banks realize they need to sell at the market price,” Olshin said.
Real Estate Disposition LLC (REDC), which claims to be the nation’s largest real estate auction company, held 300 ballroom auctions in 2008 and sold nearly 33,000 foreclosed homes for $3.4 billion — a seven-fold increase in sales volume and nearly triple the proceeds the company generated in 2007.
Company CEO Jeffrey Frieden said he expects to “smash that record” this year as banks and lenders continue to amass a huge inventory of foreclosed homes and are more motivated than ever to sell their inventory.
“I’d say all of the top 10 loan servicers have an auction strategy in place, and that between 5 and 15 percent of the (REO) portfolio is sold through auction,” said Michael Davin, president and co-founder of Hermosa Beach, Calif.-based discount brokerage CataList Homes Inc.
Jersey big pharma jobs may be at risk. Pfizer to buy Wyeth for $68b in a cash & stock deal. Pfizer looking to cut $4b in costs initially, and than an additional $2b by 2011.
Why U.S. Borrowers Need Much More Than TARP
Small business owners face a tsunami of foreclosures.
The current foreclosure crisis will be further exacerbated by a tsunami of foreclosures that will result when these toxic mortgages are reset, a process that will continue through 2012. These foreclosures will dwarf the subprime mortgage crisis, leaving millions of small business owners in peril of losing their homes to foreclosure—and then potentially closing their businesses. The resulting job losses will add millions to the ranks of the unemployed.
SG,
Bornstein, the author of the piece linked in #9, has posted here before on a number of occasions. I believe his is a professor at Kean. He has been very vocal about that topic, which is somewhat controversial since it calls for a bailout of small business loans. I believe it caused a bit of an uproar here as well.
The argument quickly focused down on two main issues.
1) If the small business owner/borrower lacked the financial wherewithall to know that this particular loan would either reset higher, or put them in a risky position, they also likely lack the ability to run a business successfully. Business is doomed to fail, so why bail it out? The only reason the business exists is that the borrower had access to cheap and easy credit in which to start the business, normally a barrier that would keep away marginal start-up attempts.
2) The small business owner/borrower likely has the financial skills necessary to understand how these loans operate. Therefore they were knowledgeable about the risks and potential impact to their businesses. While we can understand bailing out borrowers who didn’t understand and were victims of predatory lenders, why should we bail out someone who clearly understood the issue?
: Pfizer Close To Acquiring Wyeth – Sources
Mortgage Companies Losing Track of Accounts?
Some people are having a hard enough time making their mortgage payments, and now comes news that some mortgage companies don’t really know how much their customers owe or didn’t credit them accurately for what they’ve already paid.
grim 8
the question is, is this merger a nuclear event for nj pharma. Those 2 companies have a huge network of support companies that will dry u[p a lot of additional employment…..
RealtyBid
Auction site for REOs
BC Bob says:
January 25, 2009 at 9:35 pm
Yikes,
The carry trade, [selling yen, buying side B] was the fuel for the bubble. Without the carry Greenspan’s bubble would not have been successful. Without the carry, securization would not have been as effective. It was one monster of a trade. Probably the most one sided trade in the history of the markets. It was the world’s foundation for credit and leverage.
As the carry unwinds, capital seeks safe havens. In this scenario leverage is non-existent, stock markets feel the brunt of the pain. Can you imagine the stock market requiring savings, not leverage, to fuel its run? Good Luck.
thanks, BC.
question that probably can’t be answered: How do we find out a) how much winding happened, b) ballpark figure on when the unwinding will be done.
man run over by Monster truck …
this is terrifying video, not for the squeamish
http://www.wkowtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=9728341
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
The latest from Mish…
“Peter Schiff was wrong”
“Unlike Schiff, we attempt to position our clients for what the market is actually doing, not what we think it ought to be doing.”
Caterpillar cutting 20,000
weekend observations:
i went to the philadelphia home show on saturday to talk to a couple of builders and architects. i’ll assume saturday was the busiest day of the weeks event but to no surprise the crowd was rather lean.
the vendors were mostly, high end kitchen design studios, A/V show rooms and landscape materials but the most busy booth was for Sham WOW, the chamois cloth “as seen on tv”.
gone are the days of large HELOC funded renovations. today it’s cloths that hold their liquid 12 times their weight for $19.99.
my realtor also told me the lot i was interested in went under agreement this weekend by a contractor and his rabi! i know it sounds like an opening to a bad joke but i told the realtor to keep me in the loop if it should fall through. however, a rabi’s blessing and his cash is probably a sure thing.
they get a 22 x 96 lot in northern liberties for $150k. the current owner bought the lot in 2004 for 10K. my ceiling was 100k; which begs the question: how does one quantify land price? i think we’ve all come up with our own low ball formula’s for existing structures but outside of recent land purchase comps, what can you base an offer on? future value or devalue of the neighborhood, current projects surrounding the land?
Smurfit-Stone, a container/packaging manufacturer with locations in NJ, filed for bankruptcy this morning. They’ve got locations in Clifton and Swedesboro. I believe they had a facility in Teterboro that has already been shut down.
Re 17,
Mish is right about much of this but I think it’s too early to make some of these calls. Clearly Schiff missed the deflation call, and this deflationary period may last much longer than anybody expects, but at the end of the day you can’t print the amounts of money this country is printing without having a large inflationary effect someplace down the road.
which begs the question: how does one quantify land price?
Not in a vacuum is the answer.
It is difficult to do, since the valuation may differ depending on the use and value of any improvements planned. The appraisal concept of “highest and best use” comes into play here. The valuation for your use may be significantly less than the valuation of another project.
I’d suggest adding the land price along with the construction costs to give you a total cost. Compare this total cost with comparable properties nearby.
For example, say your builder estimates total construction costs at $275,000 and similar nearby properties are selling for $425,000. If the lot is priced at $100k and you feel that the construction estimates are correct, the price of the property would be more than fair (a bargain, really). Now, if similar properties were selling for $350k, that same $100k would be overpriced.
“Caterpillar cutting 20,000”
But all the analysts said they would make up for the loss of commercial and real estate business w/ the new Obama infrastructure business!!!
Sprint/Nextel cutting 8,000 jobs.
I went to Home Depot in Clifton this past Saturday at around 11:00 AM and the place was a ghost town. I don’t know if that’s normal for this time of year but for a Saturday, I thought it was odd. Strictly ancedotal but you can draw your own inferences.
But all the analysts said they would make up for the loss of commercial and real estate business w/ the new Obama infrastructure business!!!
Turns out it is cheaper to buy your heavy metal used from bankrupt builders than it is to buy new. You know, I’ve always wanted a Bobcat.
@22
thanks for that. i actually ran my figures at $100sft to build. on a lot that size you can easily build 2500sqt. i was chopping at the bit for my offer at 350k all in. comparable homes in the neighborhood are listed in the high 600’s for 2500-3000sqft. even at 150k, i think the rabi got a decent deal. i wouldn’t go over 100k based on principle, plus the extra 50k would cut into my construction costs.
From the anecdotal “that can’t be good” dept.;
Had a big meeting here in hedge fund land regarding try to cut some costs in the IT world. No mention yet of getting rid of employees; however, the particular hedgie I am now at is seriously (and I do mean seriously) looking at getting rid of all the Bloomberg terminals.
I wanted to stop the meeting and ask, “Just how bad have the losses been?” when I heard this but thought better of it.
From the marketdata perspective this is an outright desperate move. I’m guessing they’ll cancel my contract around June.
“You know, I’ve always wanted a Bobcat”
Who hasn’t wanted one. Could be useful in the compound to practice for road warrior battles. We should get a school bus and fuel truck as well. Unfortunately, I’m pretty sure that I cannot grow a mohawk.
i think the rabi got a decent deal.
Given the numbers you cite, I concur.
@28
my hedge fund friend lost his bloomberg last week; he’s a researcher for the fund. this is the equivalent to taking the tool belt from a carpenter. he now facebooks all day at work.
“i think the rabi got a decent deal.”
Without trying to sound too anti-semetic, rabbis usually do get good deals.
Disclaimer…when growing up, my nickname was Stu the Jew.
my hedge fund friend lost his bloomberg last week; he’s a researcher for the fund.
SM,
Correction, he “was” a researcher for the fund. The foreman knows his guys need tools. In my mind, this foreshadows layoff. Unless, of course, they are now a group sharing a single terminal or something along those lines.
#33 – That would be consistent with my experience.
What is going rate these days anyway, $2k/mo?
Ran into friend who works at C this weekend. Said he has his fingers crossed that any nationalization doesn’t occur until Thursday because he figures bonus check should be in his account Wednesday night:)
#35 – I believe the base is in the $1500 range + whatever extras the users want in terms of exchange access, etc.
However, I don’t deal with the billing side too much so I may be wrong.
Stu,
You talked last week, I think, about your subscription with Comcast. What are you paying and what services are included?
Thanks.
Sprint/Nextel cutting 8,000 jobs.
They will be lucky to survive. The merger was a disaster. Verizon has push to talk their walkie talkie feature isn’t exclusive. Metro PCS is a new carrier that will be launching in early February aiming at the the low end subscriber so they will bleed even more customers.
the question is, is this merger a nuclear event for nj pharma. Those 2 companies have a huge network of support companies that will dry u[p a lot of additional employment…
Not sure, but given the premium Pfizer is paying for Wyeth, they are going to be aggressively looking for “synergies” (hint hint). I believe PFE announced an additional 8,000 job cuts this morning as well.
Payment Processor Breach May Be Largest Ever
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/securityfix/2009/01/payment_processor_breach_may_b.html
(32) Stu
“Stu the jew”
Did you folks not see that one coming?
As for a bobcat, equip is essential at the compound but it will probably be something a bit more robust and multifuinctional. If you have enough cash and space, a bobcat would be fun but its a bit of a lux item.
Hopeful that we see something like this in New Jersey. Almost zen-like in simplicity and meaning.
From MarketWatch:
Reports: Iceland government resigns
Without trying to sound too anti-semetic, rabbis usually do get good deals.
Chicken or egg? Does a frugal/shrewd tendency make for a successful Rabbi? Or is it something learned in the process of becoming a Rabbi? Or is this just a coincidental factor? I mean, after all, who wants the bad karma associated with screwing over a Rabbi?
re: #17 and & 21
Mish is a very prolific writer for sure but he wrong about a few things.
Mish seems to think there is only one outcome that will play out here deflation, and he takes great pains to point out that everyone else is wrong, Roubini and Shiff for example.
He ignores that the real world outcome will most likely be a combination of things working together that ends the the current debt deflation cycle, of which inflating the currency is just one element.
This cycle we are in with a “fast” crash and what everyone warns will be a slow recovery has yet to play out, the timing of say 2010 for inflation vs 2016 is very debatable right now, one thing is for sure they stock market and housing won’t recover anytime soon so strap in folks it is going to be a long slow recovery.
Home Depot to shutter the “Expo Design Center” business. Also announces that it is laying off 7,000 employees.
anyone else waiting post Superbowl to buy a flat screen? I know the exact one I want and Best Buy has been playing games with the price for two months now. I want it 50 bux off its lowest.
Strictly ancedotal but you can draw your own inferences.
Gary,
Given the announcements by HD this morning, I don’t think we need to.
all these layoffs and not one word about the health insurance biz hurting, laying off. The mafia does ok in hard times.
BC,
So far your gold call looks better than mine unfortunately.
With my Comcast, I have Showtime, 2 digital boxes (WHICH MEANS I HAVE ABOUT 800 CHANNELS OF COMPLETE GARBAGE) and nothing else. It is comparable to the Direct TV basic account with one premium channel. I think it ended up being around $60. Just print out the Direct TV pricing and threaten them that you will switch if you don’t match it. I used the online chat suggested by Victorian rather than calling them and getting frustrated. Quick and easy and just tell ’em no until they match the Direct TV pricing. Also, tell them that Direct TV gives you 6 boxes instead of having to pay for each one with Comcast. Have fun.
More news out on the Wyzer merger.
19,000 layoffs and 5 plants closing.
This is funny and so true.
http://www.slate.com/id/2209526/pagenum/all/#p2
“New Jersey may have a rep as a toxic dump for mob victims to fester in, but at least it brought forth Bruce Springsteen. The ultimate Guyland humiliation is to be repped to the world by Billy Joel. So I feel entitled to be cruel”
I would disagree with one part of this statement. The Boss can be summed up by “Glory Days”. His best work (if you can call it that) is well behind him. That song posted last week from his new album was terrible.
Now don’t get me started on DM!
JBJB says:
January 25, 2009 at 10:03 pm
Chi I’ve heard very good things about Fairview elementary as well.We rent a place not too far away on Kings Highway E.
JBJB:
Look at this??? We just look at it on Saturday and they were asking $2800. They said they were negotiable….I guess they weren’t kidding….
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/750-Kings-Hwy-E_Middletown_NJ_07748_1103362124
If Warner-Lambert or Pharmacia are any indication of how PFE plans to approach this merger, Wyeth will likely be gutted.
Not good for Madison-area home prices.
Stu,
Thanks.
52. His Magic album is fantastic so I can’t agree, however I haven’t heard anything on the latest that I like. Bruce is prolific but at times inconsistent.
Did I make the right call on this rental market? I am completely blown away right…..OMG!!!!?????!????
BTW – we are not going to take that farmhouse….
BTW speaking of Billy Joel: rent Step Brothers. The Billy Joel cover band scene is hillaire.
@33.
yup, he braces himself every morning for the layoff and thinks about how he’ll pass time for 9 hours.
he says management has no clue what’s going to happen and the 86 year old owner pulls all strings. so if he wakes up one day and wants to shut down, he will. the office of about 15 employees have collectively done nothing since they ceased trading over 2 months ago.
In order for 0bama to juice tax receipts, you have to keep the rich from fleeing the country. The HEART Act exit tax was designed to do that, as as the offshore comp deduction elimination for hedge funds.
Notice how Geithner also revives the old Roosevelt idea of a hard cap on compensation (ironically, this would mean lower tax receipts so we probably won’t see that).
There are also serious portends for cross-border trade here; by making it difficult for cross-border transactions and finance, you get protectionist trade policy without the need to get actual legislation, which would run afoul of all those promises to the rest of the world to play nice.
+++++++++++
Geithner Vows to Prioritize Crackdown
On Offshore Tax Abuses if Confirmed
Treasury Secretary-nominee Timothy Geithner said he would make a crackdown on offshore tax abuses a priority and work to support Internal Revenue Service enforcement efforts in response to questions posed by Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.), chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Subcommittee on Investigations.
In a document dated Jan. 18 and released Jan. 23, Geithner also said he would consider both tightening restrictions and controls on executive compensation for recipients of federal help under the Troubled Asset Relief Program, and extending some form of the TARP provisions and features of a $500,000 cap on compensation tax deductions to U.S. companies generally.
In the offshore area, Levin asked Geithner how he would prioritize offshore abuses and whether he would support Levin’s bill, the Stop Tax Haven Abuse Act (S. 681), which President Obama co-sponsored as an Illinois senator two years ago.
Offshore Abuses Would Be Priority, Geithner Says.
Answering the question Jan. 18, prior to Obama’s confirmation Jan. 20, Geithner said, “I share the President-Elect’s commitment to aggressively address the problem of offshore tax abuses. If confirmed, this issue will be a high priority for the Treasury Department.”
The administration nominee said if he is confirmed, he plans to examine a wide range of policy options in the offshore area, including increasing Internal Revenue Service enforcement authority, requiring greater disclosure and taxpayer accountability, changing the presumption for transactions in tax-secrecy jurisdictions, “and other ideas included in your legislation.”
He stopped short, however, of saying he would specifically support Levin’s bill.
Nominee Vows Support for IRS Enforcement.
Asked whether he would support more resources for tax enforcement efforts in general, Geithner said that, if he becomes treasury secretary, “I will be a strong advocate for the Internal Revenue Service and its efforts to secure sufficient funding to carry out its mission successfully.”
Noting that tax enforcement is a key priority for IRS, Geithner said he looks forward to working with Commissioner of Internal Revenue Douglas Shulman “to ensure that the compliance and enforcement mission of the IRS receives the necessary support and funding.”
Geithner gave detailed responses to questions on executive compensation. Levin asked him what controls he would impose on TARP recipients to ensure compliance with requirements on executive pay, stock dividends, and a $500,000 cap on compensation tax deductions.
Controls on Executive Compensation Discussed.
The Treasury secretary-designee said staff at both Treasury and IRS would closely monitor compliance. One specific control Treasury would impose would require TARP recipients to pay executive compensation above a certain threshold amount to be paid in restricted stock or similar form that cannot be sold until the government aid has been repaid.
He also said the administration would limit TARP recipients’ ability to pay dividends, with strict limits on quarterly dividends for those receiving “exceptional assistance” until it has been paid back.
With respect to the $500,000 cap, Levin asked if Geithner would favor extending it to all U.S. corporations and all of their employees. Geithner said he would consider extending some of the TARP provisions and features of the cap to U.S. companies generally, “as well as potentially imposing other rules beyond those potentially in effect.” He noted a number of the provisions that accompany the $500,000 cap are worthy of being considered for broader application, but said the specifics of an effective solution require careful analysis, “including a review of the newly enacted tax code limitations on offshore deferred compensation.”
lol Hedge funds, you guys crack me up, accoring to Frank the Hedge Funds are busy replacing all of you gringos with low cost Mexican Quants, so if you need your terminal make sure you can speak decent Spanish.
Try this little phrase – Quiero utilizar el terminal de Bloomberg para hacer una cierta investigación
[29] stu
“Could be useful in the compound to practice for road warrior battles. We should get a school bus and fuel truck as well.”
Would rather have at least a front end loader for road warrior drills (and for doing useful work at the compound). Fuel truck and bus not really practical either. Some pickups and SUVs would be better.
re: #60 Comrade – This is all PR with Geithner to get him past a few Senators like Carl Levin and other prominet Senators who have objections to his role in this mess. Geithner is promising to be the BAD cop when for the last five years at the FED in NY he let the IB banks fail and soon Citi may go down for the count as well all on his watch.
A Modern Parable.
A Japanese company ( Toyota ) and an American company (Ford Motors) decided to have a canoe race on the Missouri River. Both teams practiced long and hard to reach their peak performance before the race.
On the big day, the Japanese won by a mile.
The Americans, very discouraged and depressed, decided to investigate the reason for the crushing defeat. A management team made up of senior management was formed to investigate and recommend appropriate action.
Their conclusion was the Japanese had 8 people rowing and 1 person steering, while the American team had 7 people steering and 2 people rowing.
Feeling a deeper study was in order; American management hired a consulting company and paid them a large amount of money for a second opinion.
They advised, of course, that too many people were steering the boat, while not enough people were rowing.
Not sure of how to utilize that information, but wanting to prevent another loss to the Japanese, the rowing team’s management structure was totally reorganized to 4 steering supervisors, 2 area steering superintendents and 1 assistant superintendent steering manager.
They also implemented a new performance system that would give the 2 people rowing the boat greater incentive to work harder. It was called the ‘Rowing Team Quality First Program,’ with meetings, dinners and free pens for the rowers. There was discussion of getting new paddles, canoes and other equipment, extra vacation days for practices and bonuses. The pension program was trimmed to ‘equal the competition’ and some of the resultant savings were channeled into morale boosting programs and teamwork posters.
The next year the Japanese won by two miles.
Humiliated, the American management laid-o ff one rower, halted development of a new canoe, sold all the paddles, and canceled all capital investments for new equipment. The money saved was distributed to the Senior Executives as bonuses.
The next year, try as he might, the lone designated rower was unable to even finish the race (having no paddles,) so he was laid off for unacceptable performance, all canoe equipment was sold and the next year’s racing team was out-sourced to India.
Sadly, the End.
Here’s something else to think about: Ford has spent the last thirty years moving all its factories out of the US , claiming they can’t make money paying American wages.
TOYOTA has spent the last thirty years building more than a dozen plants inside the US The last quarter’s results:
TOYOTA makes 4 billion in profits while Ford racked up 9 billion in losses.
Ford folks are still scratching their heads, and collecting bonuses…
thank god we bailed them out..
“Beleaguered Citigroup is upgrading its mile-high club with a brand-new $50 million corporate jet – only this time, it’s the taxpayers who are getting screwed. Even though the bank’s stock is as cheap as a gallon of gas and it’s burning through a $45 billion taxpayer-funded rescue, the airhead execs pushed through the purchase of a new Dassault Falcon 7X, according to a source familiar with the deal. The French-made luxury jet seats up to 12 in a plush interior with leather seats, sofas and a customizable..”
http://www.nypost.com/seven/01262009/news/nationalnews/just_plane_despicable_152033.htm
#49 Barbara,
Health care is hurting but it’s not getting much publicity. Aetna and UHC and many others have started layoffs. As the number of company plan participants drop off, the big squeeze will start.
Jamil- As the NYPost also thought this was “big news” yesterday, I don’t think they are the best newsource for quoting.
http://www.nypost.com/seven/01252009/news/nationalnews/retire_to_the_bedroom_151976.htm
BTW – link in 67 is relevant, as this is where NJ pension money goes when people leave the state.
PGC,
but why not lower the premiums in the name of survival? They have taken no loses that they can’t deal with, they are still very much in the black and the political winds are not in their favor.
Repeat request from yesterday. C an someone please let me know if GSMLS has been updated with a SP for 319 Maolis in GR. If so, what is it?
Many thanks.
re#65 Jamil – they didn’t even buy American? Barney Frank is gonna be POed, he recently pulled the NO-JET clause from his new TARP legislation because it would have supposedly decimated several towns in Indiana where small American Corporate Jets are made.
Another potential Upper Montclair Comp Killer:
109 Buckingham (GSMLS 2635190)
Tax Assessed: $694,200
OLP: $579,900
LP: $575,000
Let’s see if this sparks up a good ole bidding war, or is just proof positive that the market in “Prestigious Upper Montclair” is in the cr*pper.
Gator,
$510,000
NJGator. I’m still wishing on my three story 3 bath Montclair Victorian. Prop taxes scare the hell out of me but I still love the town.
Thanks, Grim!
[63] sean,
I’m not so sure. I have seen this coming for some time, and I have said that it is a bad sign when the crew wants to keep people on the ship by shooting anyone that heads for a lifeboat.
Treasury has always been concerned about capital flight but it has never been an issue. Now it is an issue, and new promises for aggressive enforcement means the slaves can’t flee the plantation. Or, like the jews that fled Europe, you can’t get their wealth when they have already left, so there is a greater emphasis on slamming down the gate in order to prevent capital flight and to prohibit (or make really expensive) cross-border trade.
I have said that the 0bama policy would cause some multinationals to expatriate, leaving only U.S. subsidiaries, which would be a smart planning move once the NOLs are used up (or outlawed) and you are looking at a 35% tax rate on worldwide income. Instead, you can relocate to a tax haven and pay 30% on your US source income only.
Barbara 74 – I think you will find your Victorian in the next 18 months :)
This listing just shows me that we absolutely have to win our tax appeal this year. I think we will hire counsel this time if it doesn’t look like we can come to a good settlement early.
Hey guys – I’ve been lurking less than usual, so I apologize if this has been posted already, but I’ve been reading this guy (Cringely) and his technology blogs for about 8 years now and I often find his stuff entertaining and insightful. Turns out he started a “mortgage blog” a few weeks ago.
Some interesting reading over there when you’re in between refresh’s on NJREReport.com ;)
http://blog.cringelysmortgage.com/blog/
Gator
I wonder when it makes headlines that NJ prop taxes are the #2 cause of the housing bubble burst.
67 njgator “Jamil- As the NYPost also thought this was “big news” yesterday, I don’t think they are the best newsource for quoting.”
Uh..Do you think this was not true? So you ignore the truth if it comes from non-extreme left wing media?
Grim,
What’s the story of those condos they were building on South Park and the Crescent in Montclair where the old department store was? Did they ever sell out all those units?
Chi [53]
I can hit a 5 iron to that place. It has been on the market for a long time, we have never been in it. Too much proeprty for me. I didn’t know it was being offered as a rental though.
If you are looking to buy a new car in 2009, you may want to wait a few months.
H.R.385
Title: To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to provide tax incentives to consumers and lenders for the purchase of a passenger vehicle during 2009.
Sponsor: Rep Rogers, Mike D. [AL-3] (introduced 1/9/2009) Cosponsors (16)
Latest Major Action: 1/9/2009 Referred to House committee. Status: Referred to the House Committee on Ways and Means.
SEC. 224. INCENTIVES TO CONSUMERS AND LENDERS FOR THE PURCHASE OF A PASSENGER VEHICLE DURING 2009.
`(a) Deduction for Consumer Purchases- In the case of an individual, there shall be allowed as a deduction an amount equal to the purchase price of any qualified vehicle placed in service by the taxpayer during the taxable year.
`(b) Dollar Limitations- The deduction allowed by subsection (a) with respect to each qualified vehicle shall not exceed–
`(1) $7,500 if such vehicle is placed in service during the 90-day period beginning on the date of the enactment of this section,
`(2) $5,000 if such vehicle is placed in service during the 90-day period beginning on the day after the period described in paragraph (1), and
`(3) $2,500 if such vehicle is placed in service after the period described in paragraph (2).
*****
H.R.550
Title: To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to allow individuals and businesses a temporary credit against income tax for the purchase of certain vehicles.
Sponsor: Rep Manzullo, Donald A. [IL-16] (introduced 1/15/2009) Cosponsors (1)
Latest Major Action: 1/15/2009 Referred to House committee. Status: Referred to the House Committee on Ways and Means.
Get America Moving Again Act of 2009 (Introduced in House)
SEC. 2. TEMPORARY CREDIT FOR PURCHASE OF PASSENGER VEHICLES.
(a) In General- Subpart B of part IV of subchapter A of chapter 1 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 is amended by inserting after section 30D the following new section:
`SEC. 30E. TEMPORARY CREDIT FOR PURCHASE OF PASSENGER VEHICLES.
`(a) Allowance of Credit- There shall be allowed as a credit against the tax imposed by this chapter for the taxable year an amount equal to the purchase price of any qualified passenger vehicle placed in service by the taxpayer during the taxable year.
`(b) Maximum Credit-
`(1) NEW VEHICLES- In the case of each qualified passenger vehicle the original use of which begins with the taxpayer, the credit allowed by subsection (a) shall not exceed–
`(A) $5,000 in the case of a vehicle placed in service before January 1, 2010, and
`(B) $2,500 in the case of a vehicle placed in service during 2010.
`(2) USED VEHICLES- In the case of each qualified passenger vehicle the original use of which does not begin with the taxpayer, the credit allowed by subsection (a) shall not exceed–
`(A) $2,000 in the case of a vehicle placed in service before January 1, 2010, and
`(B) $1,000 in the case of a vehicle placed in service during 2010.
`(c) Limitation Based on Adjusted Gross Income-
`(1) IN GENERAL- In the case of a natural person, the amount allowable as credit under this section (without regard to this subsection) for any taxable year shall be reduced (but not below zero) by the amount which bears the same ratio to the amount so allowable as–
`(A) the excess (if any) of–
`(i) the taxpayer’s modified adjusted gross income for such taxable year, over
`(ii) $125,000 ($250,000 in the case of a joint return), bears to
`(B) $10,000.
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c111:H.R.385:
Grim #83 in Mod, re – new possible tax deduction for buying a car in 2009.
danzud – I have friends in that building (The Siena). They are not completely sold out yet.
As per The Siena’s website,
“NEW FURNISHED MODELS
DISCOUNTED PRICING
GREAT FINANCING AVAILABLE
OVER 75% SOLD”
2nd (19)-
The “Rule of Three” is a quick calculation that can serve as a beginning guideline to land valuation.
Take the value of a finished home in the subject area or neighborhood, and divide by three. This will give you an appx. valuation for the land.
Needless to say, access to water, sewer; location; topo and anticipated soft costs of development should be taken into account to develop a more exact assessment.
New Jersey has two EXPO centers that will be closed: Bridgewater and Paramus.
NY has three: Commack, Westbury and New Rochelle.
Clot 86 – In Montclair’s reval, they flipped that logic. Our land is 2/3 of our assessment!
Too bad, EXPO was a fun place to wander around for an hour or two.
Never bought anything though, too expensive.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Dec. existing home sales rise 6.5% to 4.74 million pace
U.S. Dec. median home price down 15.3% vs. year earlier
U.S. Dec. existing home inventories fall 11.7%
U.S. 2008 existing home sales fall 13.1% to 4.91 million
From MarketWatch:
Existing-home sales rise 6.5% as prices plunge
Sales of existing homes rose 6.5% in December to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.74 million as prices continued to plunge at a record pace, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday.
Sales in December were down 3.5% from the previous December.
For 2008 as a whole, sales fell 13.1% to 4.91 million, the industry trade group said. November and December were the weakest sales months of the year on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The median sales price fell to $175,400 in December, down a record 15.3% compared with a year earlier. For all of 2008, median prices dropped 9.3% to the lowest level since 2004.
The price decline is likely the largest since the Great Depression in the 1930s, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the trade group.
About 45% of the transactions in December were considered distress sales, either a short sale or a home in foreclosure. Many foreclosure sales are handled outside the realtors’ system and are not reported in this report.
#69 Barbara
That is their problem. You can’t manage a revenue shortfall, by cutting revenues.
gator (88)-
The way they evaluate for tax purposes blows my mind. I don’t understand the process at all (nor do I really want to).
Pretty gloomy headlines from Yahoo Finance this morning:
* Pfizer to buy Wyeth for $68 billion, cut jobs- AP
* Caterpillar earnings below expectations, to slash jobs- AP
* Sprint Nextel to eliminate 8,000 jobs- AP
* Home Depot to cut 7,000 jobs, close Expo chain- AP
* Rohm and Haas says Dow does not plan to close deal- AP
* Oil back below $46 as US sees deeper recession- AP
* Mickey Ds 4Q profit falls, stock slips- Reuters
* European stocks rise, led by banks- AP
* Smurfit-Stone seeks bankruptcy protection- AP
The Mickey D’s report was very surprising. Are we now so broke that the value menu is unaffordable?
I take that back.
McDonald’s Corp. reported a 23 percent drop in its fourth-quarter profit on Monday because of a year-ago tax benefit, but strong same-store sales helped the hamburger chain beat Wall Street’s expectations.
I take that back.
McDd’s Corp. reported a 23 percent drop in its fourth-quarter profit on Monday because of a year-ago tax benefit, but strong same-store sales helped the hamburger chain beat Wall Street’s expectations.
Northeast was the worst performer in December.
Seasonally adjusted sales down 1.4% from the prior month and 14.3% from last December. Significantly worse than the -3.5% year-over-year figure seen nationwide.
Median prices in the Northeast down 7.8% year over year and average prices down 7.9% year over year.
Northeast was the worst performer in December.
NAR can always blame thi son the frigid temperatures.
I’ve noticed the For Sale signs have started to show up again in force this weekend. My drive into work (about 2 miles off of 95) now has about 12 more homes for sale than Fri.
“Northeast was the worst performer in December.”
JB,
Did the west show a big increase, foreclosures?
“U.S. Dec. median home price down 15.3% vs. year earlier”
This is bad any way you want to slice it.
Thanks Gator. Any chance you know what taxes and maintenance are like for that place?
#60
“With respect to the $500,000 cap, Levin asked if Geithner would favor extending it to all U.S. corporations and all of their employees. Geithner said he would consider extending some of the TARP provisions and features of the cap to U.S. companies generally, “as well as potentially imposing other rules beyond those potentially in effect.””
*******
wow.
danzud 102 – would have to ask my friend. The actual assessments are not in the Monmouth County online db yet. I seem to recall my friend saying something around 12k. I have no idea about maintenance.
massive job cuts, so of course, the market soars, +145
i’ll take, things that don’t make sense for $800, Alex
Danzud – The listings on the GSMLS show monthly fees around $500. Taxes range from 10-12k. Lowest price listing is $479,990 and the highest is $639,900.
“U.S. Dec. existing home sales rise 6.5%”
Where’s the recession?
#97
“Seasonally adjusted sales down 1.4% from the prior month and 14.3% from last December. Significantly worse than the -3.5% year-over-year figure seen nationwide.
Median prices in the Northeast down 7.8% year over year and average prices down 7.9% year over year.”
***********
went driving around on Saturday and there were a couple of houses for sale on just about every street. Just imagine the inventory situation in 2 months. Downward momentum in our area is building fast
i’ll take, things that don’t make sense for $800, Alex
Aren’t job cuts almost always a positive for equities?
Restructure, trim the fat, cut the chaff, increase efficiencies, kick the dogs, eliminate losses, milk the cows, increase profitability.
#107 – You’re looking at month on month and not the year on year.
Where’s the recession?
U.S. Dec. median home price down 15.3% vs. year earlier
Sales in December were down 3.5% from the previous December.
#109 my thoughts exactly
yeah grim, sure. equities up is great.
if only our economy didn’t hum when people were spending. can’t spend if you don’t have any, and your credit’s been trimmed.
these gold charts, of course, are interesting. i touted to many that gold would hit 1600 this year.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
the 10-year is startling
OK, so I am having second thoughts about swallowing a rent increase right now. As I said before, I think we were paying slightly below market rate rent before on our 2 yr lease. If our lease had come up for renewal last spring, it would have been a slam dunk for our landlord to raise our rent. Right now, given the state of the economy, I think he is pushing it. I do not want to move since I am planning on buying a place in 2010 and I think he is taking advantage of the convenience factor for me. But at this point with all of this grim economic news I am getting annoyed enough with the proposed increase that I have decided to start looking at other rentals (there is no shortage).
Skep:
Speaking as a landlord, you ought to negotiate it down and bring some real comps with you. If that doesn’t work, then move. Moving sucks so avoid it if you must.
“i touted to many that gold would hit 1600 this year.”
Yikes,
Did you buy?
Thanks Gator,
That building to me represents how out of whack prices had become during the housing bubble.
http://www.priv.njmls.xmlsweb.com/Reports.asp?CMAID=6827125&Date=1/25/2009&Time=09:42&ReportID=c_full
Hey I am back, last summer in a fit of temp insanity I checked out this house that was at the time $1,299,000. It is back on the market at $1,095,000. It is on 345 E. Saddle River Road, Upper Saddle River NJ. House was built in 2001 and looks like it was built on a realtivly busy road across from a farm.
Wonder what that house originally sold for, how long on market how many price cut and is it getting close to a good price, yea it is cheaper, but then again Citi looked like a buy at ten bucks a share. Wonder how low something like that will go and if it is headed towards short sale.
Yeah Yikes. No touting unless you put some cashola behind it. This was a 2009 provision.
“Wachovia is now part of Wells Fargo. One team, twice as strong.”
http://www.wellsfargo.com/wachovia
#38 BC,
re: Comcast
I’m with Comcast (Montco PA). I have 3 digital boxes (2 w/ DVR), one premium channel, phone and internet with them. I pay $168.22. I previously was paying a little over $200 for the same service. When I called to switch everything to Verizon FiOS, they offered me the better deal.
Every now and then the WSJ will report on executives who are trying to sell a house. I am amazed because in many, many cases they bought a particular house for $X million, and insist on selling it for $X million plus. No wonder these guys messed up our economy – they can’t even figure out that housing prices are not what they were in 2005 or 2007…
Loved the story this weekend about the guy who bought a $33 million house in NYC. He found out that his neighbor was about to sell his house for $25 million, and then did everything to convince that buyer to buy his $33 million house instead. Pathetic. (The buyer ended up sticking with the $25 million one.)
Wonder what that house originally sold for, how long on market how many price cut and is it getting close to a good price, yea it is cheaper, but then again Citi looked like a buy at ten bucks a share. Wonder how low something like that will go and if it is headed towards short sale.
John,
It was purchased for $975,000 in September of 2003. That $1.299m list was the original/highest list price.
Not a short sale candidate, the most recent mortgage was $695,030 in 2007.
This week captain cheapo goes after the home insurance and car insurance premiums. My house is now worth a lot less, so I’m thinking that it should be cheaper to insure it. I’ll let you all know the results, although I shopped around pretty well when I got the policies 5 years ago. Ultimately, my goal is to get back all of my 10% pay cut. I’m well on my way.
Oil is $48.30.
If it starts moving up again, it will put a real damper on our economy. Anyone else think we might have over shot the bottom?
Ellen [120],
Thanks.
Stu, your house is worth more not less from an insurance standpoint. Sheet rock, lumber, copper etc. went way up
Stu says:
January 26, 2009 at 10:55 am
This week captain cheapo goes after the home insurance and car insurance premiums. My house is now worth a lot less, so I’m thinking that it should be cheaper to insure it. I’ll let you all know the results, although I shopped around pretty well when I got the policies 5 years ago. Ultimately, my goal is to get back all of my 10% pay cut. I’m well on my way.
Housing prices are falling around the country, but this one sounds hard to believe: A seaside mansion on Jupiter Island in Florida, bought for more than $13 million five years ago, was just sold for $10.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/26/business/26fuld.html?_r=1&ref=business
BC Bob says:
January 26, 2009 at 10:36 am
“i touted to many that gold would hit 1600 this year.”
Yikes,
Did you buy?
of course. not as much physical as i would have liked, but also improved my portfolio to about 10 % metals.
when you and Clot talk, I listen. (except that we just bought a house; then again, that’s in PA, different market, etc)
118 Stu –
Oh, im sorry, that came out wrong. After reading about it ON HERE, i went and touted to friends that Gold would go up.
Yes, i bought. im definitely not trying to say im ahead of the curve on anyone here. I’m just chasing the herd.
and so far, so good – just like with SKF :)
overall, i’d say we’re 3-for-3 based on NJ Re followings, and all 3 have resulted in massive gains.
not good. can this be contained?
keep your eyes on the pension funds
Iceland’s PM: Government Has Collapsed
http://tinyurl.com/bk2tag
Report from the front lines. Talking to a NYC developer who was offered a sale of some remaining condos in a development that had sold as recently as $1300 per sqft. The selling developer had in contract approx. 80% of the building. They were being pressured into selling because bank wasn’t willing to extend. Developer was asking for about $650 per sqft to get rid of remaining 20%. A 50% haircut to buy in bulk. Wow!
I’m really sick right now, anyone else sick?
cough..cough..
anyone have a kleenex?
SAS
John,
I’m not sure that material costs are that much higher. In the past year, they have dropped like a rock.
Cost of lumber was $407 per 1,000 square feet when we bought our home in September of 2004.
Cost of same lumber at end of last year was $207 per 1,000 square feet.
You sure of your numbers?
http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?sectionID=819&genericContentID=527&channelID=311
Sheetrock has also made similar moves.
Captain Cheapo, pays attention!
Stu,
As has asphalt, concrete, block, copper, siding, shingles, etc. I hear PVC is poised to take a big drop as well, as a new plant comes online in the US.
“Public pensions are weighing on taxpayers”
http://tinyurl.com/bbb9rj
-Taxpayer support of state and local public employee retirement programs has increased more in New York
-$486-per-resident cost in 2007 ranked highest in the nation
For now I will ignore John’s sourceless data and will see what I can do.
when you’ve got no loot, you eat at
mcdonald’s
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.aec4920fe8094fdd0baaeab2ed126bf1.741&show_article=1
Just some rough figures, looks like NJ will lose approximately 200 jobs from the Expo closures. Home Depot expects to close the stores within 2 months.
Last I heard was that Oil moved from its normal contangoed position into backwardation.
It is cheaper to buy fuel being delivered in the future then it is to buy fuel now and store it. You can see a bit of it on the futures market still today.
This means that there are enterprising inviduals that bought the oil and are renting supertankers to position the oil offshore to wait for a date when the price of oil goes back up. Normally this would result in risk-free money but in this market more then one rule of investing has been broken.
Expect strange things to happen on the oil market.
i know i have posted this before, but this is a excellent film, its worth the time.
Memoria del Saqueo (Memory of the Looting, a Social Genocide)
A film by Pino Solanas, in Spanish w/English subtitles.
The film highlights how, after the fall of Argentina’s military dictatorship in 1983, the political class, the judiciary, the labor unions and social institutions sold out to the international financial institutions and brought Argentina to the massive social rebellion of 2001.
SAS
I paid an external consult to perform an inventory last month of leasehold improvements, turns out while resale values and home price values have fallen, replacement cost for basic building materials have risen, therefore it cost more to resheet rock and re-electical a house after a fire so even though property values have fallem it has not really result in a fall in insurance rates.
Stu says:
January 26, 2009 at 11:29 am
For now I will ignore John’s sourceless data and will see what I can do.
every builder i have spoken to over the past month said the overall cost of construction (including material) is about 5% cheaper than last year.
Went to a party that some friends were having up in West Virginia. Seems that they bought a home in early 2006 there.
I told them it probably was wise to rent for a while but they didn’t listen.
The builder will build you a new home, right next to theirs, for 40,000$ less then what they paid. They had an appraisal done that indicated the house was worth 80,000$ less then the initial appraisal.
“Memoria del Saqueo”
if you watch this film, and line it up with todays financial current events its damn scary and eye opening.
i think kettle has posted the link to the movie with the englsih subtitles?
i got my copy off amazon.
like i said, its hands down, one of the best docu out there.
SAS
Nicholas [142],
Still in contango, back months more expensive.
That indicates either the builders are hard up for work OR that the cost of building materials has fallen.
Or both.
The original purchase price for the house was 309,000$. A drop to 269,000$ is about a 14% decrease in house value. Who would buy a used house when the builder is making ’em brand spanking new?
I’m showing July 2010 oil in backwardation on Yahoo futures for the NYME right now.
Disclaimer: I started looking at this chart 5 months ago.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/fc?s=CLH09.NYM
From a pricing perspective, the Northeast is still showing smaller price declines than other regions on a year over year basis.
You mean the buyers are still bigger m*rons than the sellers?
Also October 2009 in backwardation.
Naw Gary. They just have money honey.
I’m not sure if this was posted, was suprised to see that Blue Tulip went bankrupt. I think this was a NJ-based company. We went to our local Whole Foods which is in the same plaza last night and saw the going out of buinsess signs on the windows. I guess high end expensive crap is out of fasihon.
Stu I am sure of my numbers, what happened is lets say in my case 5 years ago you picked an amount to insure yourself for to replace your building. Unless you adjust that amount every year when prices rise you soon are underinsured, yep prices fell in 2008 but rose in 2004-2007. Overall it costs more to replace than it did five years ago.
New homes get smaller:
Say goodbye to McMansions, Americans are buying ‘right-sized’ homes
http://tinyurl.com/d4pdje
Maybe I don’t understand the words contago and backwardation.
All I know is that I’m seeing some strange behavoir on the futures markets that wasn’t present when I was looking at them for the last 5 months.
This is for Gary, from internet.com.
Free download.
Navigating Your IT Career in a Recession
It looks like 2009 is going to be a tough year for seeking or retaining employment in IT.
Download this valuable guide, Navigating your IT Career, to see how the year is shaping up, and what you can do to find a job or make yourself more marketable in a down economy.
Nicholas 147 – I hope your friends plan on staying long term. Parents of a friend of mine had the bad musfortune to buy real estate in Wheeling, WV back in the late 80’s. They’re still the bag holders on that place.
Thank you, scribe! :)
China fears riots will spread as boom goes sour
They surged into the grimy streets around the factory: first scores, then hundreds, then more than a thousand, as word spread and tension loaded the stale, grey air. The boldest overturned a police van and smashed up motorcycles, then tore through the building destroying computers and equipment. The mood was exhilarated, angry and frightened. “It happened so quickly … There were maybe 500 involved and another 1,000 watching them. People were yelling: ‘It’s good to smash’,” said a witness.
But the riot late last year at the Kai Da factory in Dongguan, amid the grim industrial sprawl of the Pearl River Delta, was not an isolated incident. It was one of tens of thousands of protests, many erupting from the same mixture of economic grievances, resentment of police and swirling rumour. The numbers have been climbing steadily for years. But as the Chinese New Year dawns and the global economic crisis deepens, the government fears that mass unrest could challenge its control of the country, threatening a communist regime that has embraced capitalism with spectacular results.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jan/25/china-globaleconomy
As homes get smaller, home-owners are looking to economize the space they do have. Butler says she is seeing more interest in “Wii-sized spaces” — family rooms that are flexible enough to accommodate a variety of activities, from video games to fitness systems. Outdoor spaces aren’t being wasted either, and outdoor kitchens and entertaining areas continue to rise in popularity, she said.
Here is an example of so called “not wasted outdoor space”
http://photocamel.com/gallery/data/928/medium/homelesshut.jpg
potential good news?
“Barclays Won’t Seek New Capital, Is Profitable”
http://tinyurl.com/abgs3k
a big buffer in equity capital and reserves (something that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Bear Stearn’s and Lehman also claimed …. just before they went under). While I can’t say this is not true in Barclay’s case because the UK government may have pumped enough money into the bank to make this possible.
SAS
“Wachovia is now part of Wells Fargo. One team, twice as strong.”
Beavis, meet Butthead.
Nicholas –
AFAIK, Contango means that future prices are more expensive than present ones, and backwardation is the opposite.
For the guys looking to make profit on oil stored in supertankers, the price they hope to attain the future must exceed the cost of storage + any interest on the loan they might have taken to buy the oil.
If the global economy continues to tank, these guys are in for a rude surprise.
Disclaimer – Am a noob, would appreciate corrections by gurus over here.
“I’m showing July 2010 oil in backwardation on Yahoo futures for the NYME right now.”
Nicholas,
Backwardation would be spot higher than back months. Normal markets are contago, spot less than back months. This is the case with crude, at this time.
From Bloomberg:
House Prices Dropped in 70% of U.S. States in 2008, Report Says
Home prices fell in 34 U.S. states in 2008 as it became harder to get a mortgage and foreclosures hammered property values, First American CoreLogic said.
Prices for single-family detached houses fell a record 10.6 percent nationally, the biggest annual decline in data that goes back to 1976, Santa Ana, California-based First American said today in its year-end report.
“The geographic breadth of the decline expanded in 2008,” Mark Fleming, First American’s chief economist, said in an interview. Even markets with few foreclosures “are being drawn in by fundamental economic conditions.”
…
U.S. home prices have dropped 18.5 percent from their peak in July 2006 and are now at May 2004 levels, First American said.
California led last year’s decline with a 27 percent drop, followed by Nevada at 23 percent, Arizona at 19 percent and Florida at 18 percent, First American said. Prices tumbled 14 percent in Rhode Island, 10 percent in Minnesota, 9 percent in Wyoming, New Hampshire and Maryland and 8 percent in New York.
B O H I C A [154],
So, how much in the hole are you on your mortgage?
vic [166],
Those playing that game [and not in the cash business], storing in supertankers, are selling the futures against the physical. They are locking in a spread. There was a 2 week window where this was profitable. They are not storing and speculating.
Thanks John. I’ll see what I can find out.
From NJBIZ:
N.J.’s Job Losses Are Worst Since ‘91 Recession
It’s now official — the 2008 economy was a year that New Jersey and the United States would like to forget. With a national downturn that officially started in December 2007 still intensifying, 2008 turned out to be the middle year of what is now the 2007 to 2009 recession. And it’s been a painful ride for New Jersey.
According to the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development, between December 2007 and December 2008, the state lost 63,000 total payroll jobs, with 59,800 of the losses suffered by the private sector. These are considerably greater than earlier data would have suggested. And the large losses in December — 15,200 total jobs — were compounded by significant downward revisions that were made to the previously published estimates for November, the result of changes mandated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in the monthly estimation procedure. November’s losses now total 19,600 jobs.
The total employment loss in 2008 was the greatest since 1991, when total employment declined by 80,800 jobs. The private-sector employment loss in 2008 was also the worst since 1991, when 74,900 jobs were lost.
SAS
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6758899307929087686&hl=en
Memorias_del_Saqueo
If anyone wants it on disc (CD) at a GTG i am more then happy to share it.
kettle [173],
I’ll put in an order for 1.
Anyone know what happened to the Hudson Bay Club by Baker Residential in Bayonne? I remember it opening sales a few months back, now it completely disappeared off the face of the earth it seems. Its not even listed on Baker’s website anymore.
Gary,
I worry about you!
:)
skeptic- 115
Maybe he is taking advantage of the convenience factor. But you are taking advantage of the bad economy. All’s fair.
Go find a new place. If you can find one for 10% cheaper and he is raising your rent 10% the move might be worth it. Plus 2010 can easily become 2011.
However, if he’s smart and keep a good tenant in this economy he may keep your rent the same. If you think moving is a pain in the ass, try renovating an apartment. Plus, if the place sits empty for two months, it offsets any gain that he will see in a rent increase.
“Thain to pay back office decorating costs”
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28856875
here you go clot
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiHPf9pEQ_8
Is it too late to ask for TARP III, 25pb rate cut and 1.9% mortgages? Really Really Really that is all we need. Oh yea and some jobs.
From MarketWatch:
Pfizer to buy Wyeth in $68 bln consolidation move
Combined company to lay off more than 19,000 workers to scale back costs
The layoffs will be folded into a larger round undertaken by the combined company, which expects to shed more than 19,000 workers — amounting to about 15% of its combined workforce.
[137] stu
Captain Cheapo, a.k.a. Stu the Jew?
Aren’t you afraid of perpetuating a stereotype?
(or when there’s money to be saved, f*@k no?)
If being Jewish and saving money perpetuates a stereotype, then so be it. Please don’t go labeling me an unthrifty Christian!
most sterotypes are somewhat true, the irish like beer and the italians like pasta, the only part stu may have a moral issue with is cutting the hole in the sheet, yea you gotta do it but it ruins a good sheet.
scribe,
You’re a doll! Thank you for thinking of me! :)
Stu
For car insurance, check if your firm qualifies as a member of NJ Manufacturers.
http://www.njm.com/
I can’t find anywhere cheaper except USAA. They usually pay a dividend back to the members every year, so you get a 10% refund.
appreciate the landlord perspectives on the rent increase. I would be curious if any of you have tried to find new tenants recently and what that was like.
the proposed rent increase is not massive– 6%. Still, I am finding comps are below this and even below my current rent. Another alternative for me is to move to a cheaper town next door where I could save some real money ($7,000 – 10,000 in one year). Moving sucks, but I ended up leaving my last rental after what I took to be a too aggressive rent increase.
PGC
HOORAY for USAA!!!!
I am cheaper than all my Jewish friends.
Anybody have an experience with the Bergen County Sheriff Sales?
I’ve been looking at the “sold” listings and i can’t believe that properties have sold for $100 (to banks)
Are these auctions open to the public? Or just to banks?
Are there any websites that I can visit that will give me some tips on how to bid on a property?
“I am cheaper than all my Jewish friends.”
My wife might argue with you on that point.
Actually, I’m really not cheap. Just terribly frugal. We take many vacations, fortunately they are paid for almost entirely by credit card rebates and frequent flier mileage. We also eat out way too often, but can often make it almost as cost effective as eating a nice meal at home.
would not want to find out Gary……underwater? Naw….updates and quality work…good location….lowish price paid…..could prolly walk away with cash….but will not…..
I’ve been looking at the “sold” listings and i can’t believe that properties have sold for $100 (to banks)
You shouldn’t look at those as “sales”, they aren’t.
Those transactions mean either there was no other bidder, or the bids didn’t exceed the minimum price the lender would accept (upset price).
They represent properties whose outstanding loan balance exceed the current value of the property.
Stu– Based on what you have posted here, I would say you are not cheap (not that there’s anything wrong with that). You seem to go on lots of vacations, casino trips, seem to indulge in some expensive vino. You even have pay channels with your cable!
Anyone in a 4 br, 2 level house (basement not finished), what does ur cleaning lady cost?
speaking of wine, here is another cheap bottle I enjoyed recently:
http://www.wine.com/V6/Penfolds-Koonunga-Hill-Shiraz-Cabernet-2007/wine/97350/detail.aspx
Also tried the Dr. Loosen Riesling Clot recommended and that was nice as well.
“Mish is right about much of this but I think it’s too early to make some of these calls. Clearly Schiff missed the deflation call, and this deflationary period may last much longer than anybody expects, but at the end of the day you can’t print the amounts of money this country is printing without having a large inflationary effect someplace down the road.”
Mish is using a bubble in treasuries which artificially inflated the value of the dollar to claim victory. He’s no different than the housing cheerleaders that were arguing with Schiff in 2006. In a year or two, we’ll be grouping Mish with Gary B. Smith. I just hope, for Mish’s sake that he doesn’t ever appear on TV to debate Schiff because he’ll be part of youtube infamy in 2 years. It appears Mish is simply going after Schiff to try to leech of his popularity.
A bit mroe details on possible outlook for Pfizer/Wyeth merger, if history teaches us anything:
Want to see the real effects of the merger? One need only look at the Pharmacia acquisition.
At the time of the acquisition:
“That growth/contraction combo, though, is no surprise. The Pharmacia acquisition created a corporate giant — the world’s third-largest in terms of market capitalization — fusing Pfizer’s 98,000 employees with Pharmacia’s 43,000.”
That’s a total of 141,000. Pfizer staff published in 2007: 86,600. Subtract the 4700 lost in 2008 and the sales and researchers (published to be 4700). That makes Pfizer employee count roughly at 81, 900.
That’s a layoff of 59, 100 employees! So, this acquisition can work since they are gaining the income from Wyeth potentially without the liabilities of much of the workforce.
[191] stu
Mrs. Deplume called me cheap once. Then I reminded her that I spent my entire last BIGLAW firm bonus on her for a fur coat.
That got the point across.
And I do consider that purchase to be of value–she often walked to work in downtown Phila. and that coat came in awfully handy on many a day. I also got an insanely good deal, and to compound it, had it drop-shipped to my office in DC, thus avoiding a myriad of NJ taxes.
But I also pride myself on being uber-frugal. I buy my shirts and suits with brooksbros. points, and we are planning our next vacation on points as well. And these are not recent habits—my behavior comes from not having money for most of my life.
Thanks Skep…You listening Gator? :P
Besides USAA and NJBIA, anyone else have a good starting point for home and auto insurance. Wife and I are good safe drivers. No points, no recent accidents, excellent credit, etc.
[196] skep,
That’s a consistently decent drop, though I had tired of it.
There was another riesling in the same category that was good and cheap, but the name escapes me. Could be that one but we don’t buy many rieslings b/c the spouse despises sweeter wines.
The NJ Real Estate and Tightwad Report
grim unmod
Stu says:
January 26, 2009 at 1:23 pm
Thanks Skep…You listening Gator? :P
Besides USAA and NJBIA, anyone else have a good starting point for home and auto insurance. Wife and I are good safe drivers. No points, no recent accidents, excellent credit, etc.
NJM….if you are clean, the blow away everyone else by a large margin
I use State Farm for auto and renter’s insurance and am pretty satisfied.
It might not always mean that you can totally rid yourself of the debt but at least you will be able to know what to do in the circumstance when your debt has become too much to bear. No Use Hiding Your Credit Card Debt If You Want
Victorian says:
January 26, 2009 at 12:03 pm
Nicholas – AFAIK, Contango means that future prices are more expensive than present ones, and backwardation is the opposite.
For the guys looking to make profit on oil stored in supertankers, the price they hope to attain the future must exceed the cost of storage + any interest on the loan they might have taken to buy the oil. If the global economy continues to tank, these guys are in for a rude surprise.
Disclaimer – Am a noob, would appreciate corrections by gurus over here.
Vic: If they are fully hedged, then market conditions are not important. They only have to worry about counterparty risk exposure. Their return profile can be locked in at spot.
“my behavior comes from not having money for most of my life.”
We share this commonality then ;)
Crazy part is, my folks had some dough. Solidly middle class even. Though with seven kids, it wouldn’t have lasted very long if they divvied it all out. Mom’s goal was to make us all independent. No allowance either although she did buy us our basic clothes. I used to sell lots of stuff door to door as a kid, delivered newspapers, mowed lawns and shoveled driveways since I was about age 10. As you know, I grew up in the burbs and am still driving my first car that I bought when I was 25. I’m rapidly approaching 40 :P
Stu: my moderated post at 1:29Pm responds to your insurance post.
unmodded
How can one find out if their company is a member of NJBIA for NJM membership?
Mister Softee is Only Worth 136 Dow Points
Off and on over the years I have written about the distortions that the Dow Jones Industrials creates by using a price-based index rather than a market cap index. As an example, if Microsoft with a market cap of $153 billion went to a price of zero, all the Dow would lose would be 136 points, or less than 2%. If IBM with a market cap of $120 billion went to zero, the Dow would lose over 700 points! But it gets worse. David Kotok forwarded this note to me from our mutual friend Jim Bianco (www.biancoresearch.com), which Jim graciously allowed me to reproduce for your edification (prices quoted below are from a few days ago):
“Comment – The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index. The divisor for the DJIA is 7.964782. That means that every $1 a DJIA stock loses, the index loses 7.96 points, regardless of the company’s market capitalization. “Dow Jones, the keeper of the DJIA, has an unwritten rule that any DJIA stock that gets below $10 gets tossed out. As of last night’s close (January 20), The DJIA had the following stocks less than $10 …
Citi (C) = $2.80
GM (GM) = $3.50
B of A (BAC) = $5.10
Alcoa (AA) = $8.35
“If all four of these stocks went to zero on today’s open, the DJIA would lose only 157.3 points. “The financials in the DJIA are …
Citi (C) = $2.80
B of A (BAC) = $5.10
Amex (AXP) = 15.60
JP Morgan (JPM) = $18.09
“If every financial stock in the DJIA went to zero on today’s open, it would only lose 331.25 points, less than it lost yesterday (332.13 points). “If you want to add GE into the financial sector, a debatable proposition, then: GE (GE) = $12.93 “If the four financial stocks above and GE opened at zero today, the DJIA would only lose 434.24 points. “The reason the DJIA is outperforming on the downside is the index committee is not doing it job and replacing sub-$10 stocks, and the financials are so beaten up that they cannot push the index much lower. “So what is driving the index? The highest-priced stocks:
IBM (IBM) = $81.98
Exxon (XOM) = $76.29
Chevron (CHV) = $68.31
P&G (PG) = $57.34
McDonalds (MCD) = $57.07
J&J (JNJ) = $56.75
3M (MMM) = $53.92
Wal-Mart (WMT) = $50.56
“For instance, if all the sub-$10 stocks listed above, all the financials listed above, and GE opened at zero, the DJIA loses 528.63 points. To repeat if C, BAC, GM, AA, JPM, AXP and GE all open at zero, the DJIA loses 528.63 points. “If IBM opens at zero, it loses 652.95 points [IBM has risen since then – JM]. So, the DJIA says that IBM has more influence on the index than all the financials, autos, GE, and Alcoa combined. “The DJIA is not normal as the index committee is not doing their job during this crisis, possibly because to the political fallout of kicking out a Citi or GM. As a result, this index is now severely distorted as it has a tiny weighting in financials and autos.” You could add Microsoft to the list Jim created and not be over where IBM is today in terms of the DJIA index. Let’s look at it another way. A 10% positive move for IBM would move the Dow up by over 60 points. A 10% move by Citigroup would increase the Dow by less than 3 points. Having stocks with low prices clearly prevents the Dow from declining as much as other market-cap-weighted indexes like the S&P 500.
more…..
http://frontlinethoughts.com/
Thanks ChiFi.
HOORAY for USAA!!!!
I have a friend who said the best thing she got from her Ex was USAA eligibility.
#212 Stu
Call them and ask or talk to your HR benefits dept.
“To the extent that they have a business model that is inconsistent with your expectations, you may find that you will be disappointed.”
Doesn’t hurt to try :P
Stu says:
January 26, 2009 at 1:09 pm
“I am cheaper than all my Jewish friends.”My wife might argue with you on that point.
Actually, I’m really not cheap. Just terribly frugal. We take many vacations, fortunately they are paid for almost entirely by credit card rebates and frequent flier mileage. We also eat out way too often, but can often make it almost as cost effective as eating a nice meal at home.
Stu: Some of the cheapest people I know are actually spendaholics. The buy tons and tons of cheap crap.
Being cheap is actually another form of self-centeredness/selfishness. As is depression…..
Re Stu’s cheap/frugal tendencies. – I can only point to my lack of overhead lights and cross-examination on the price of colored peppers to prove my point. Or innocent questions like “How far out of Essex County can we move and have you still use your Montclair RR parking permit to get to work?”
I also don’t think I would ever get a fur coat from Stu, unless he found it for sale on sierratradingpost.com.
skep-tic says:
January 26, 2009 at 1:19 pm
speaking of wine, here is another cheap bottle I enjoyed recently: Also tried the Dr. Loosen Riesling Clot recommended and that was nice as well.
Dr. Loosen? Just by the name, I probably could have used some more of that wine for my dates when I was 18-19…..
We used to be a NJBIA member, but they got rid of it. Shoot.
I was with NJCure forever, told I could never get a better price. Progressive offered me over 500 less for MORE coverage. I took it. HTH
BTW – have people seen the beating that Schiff is taking in the MSM over the last few days?
Interestingly I found that Allstate had the best insurance rates on housing. Their automobile insurance was very expensive though.
“Dr. Loosen?”
LOL.
And Gator, I just can’t justify spending over $3/lb. for red, orange and yellow peppers when the green ones are $1.69/lb!
I guess I’m depressed and self centered. :P
“Dr. Loosen”
It says what it does.
Stu when I was in college I used to register my car show insurance card and cancel it next day. If I had an accident you had a 1/365 chance of collecting money off me. Actually, car insurance in itself is a moral hazzard. When I lived in Queens I never parked my car without theft on the street overnight. Of course my car with theft was stolen. There are still a few states left that don’t require car insurance and one or two that don’t even require residency. I used to have a car registerd in someone elses name in Florida which back then did not require insurance or inspection. I lightly scrapped a BMW once and OMG that guy got out and first thing he goes is this thing insured. I said no, and was ready for a beating but he drove off. Trouble with my technique if the car gets towed or stolen you are SOL if it is not in your name. Driving without insurance with car in your name is risky. My other favorite cheapskate just picks a name out of phone book and registers his car in there name and there address. Now that is funny stuff. now that I have assets I have tons of car insurance, but every single person on welfare drives with no insurance. Car insurance is for rich folk.
From the Star Ledger:
NJ Transit faces $150 million in losses from financial meltdown
Fallout from the financial crisis could cost NJ Transit $150 million, causing delays for capital improvement projects or increasing fares even as construction begins on an $8.7 billion new rail tunnel under the Hudson River, officials said today.
NJ Transit is among at least 31 transit agencies in 18 states that could lose money through lease transactions that are now in jeopardy due to downgrades in the credit ratings of banks, NJ Transit executive director Richard Sarles told a legislative committee in Trenton.
NJ Transit’s agreements with AIG — which was downgraded this summer — have led to “technical defaults” that could force NJ Transit to pay investors the balance of the leases, unless the federal government agrees to guarantee the transactions, Sarles said.
If the agency was forced to pay, it would likely find the $150 million by postponing capital projects instead of hiking fares, which could go up by more than 10 percent, Sarles said. He said he hopes to avoid that scenario by reaching a federal solution with the help of Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ).
“We are continuing our efforts to secure a federal guarantee and prevent any significant financial harm to NJ Transit,” Sarles told the Assembly Transportation Committee.
#200 Stu – I highly recommend USAA. We had a fire caused by lightning and USAA had an emergency repair team at the house within ONE HOUR of our phone call. I am not kidding. They are fabulous.
John says:
January 26, 2009 at 1:48 pm
Stu when I was in college ……
I’m thinking…OK here it goes….
ChiFi
if you want an invite to USAA e-mail me. members can invite non-members.
Forget Dr. Loosen and go straight for this red blend.
http://www.folieadeux.com/mat/home.html
Kettle1,
Can I mooch an invite? I almost joined the air force!
grim says:
January 26, 2009 at 1:48 pm
From the Star Ledger:
NJ Transit faces $150 million in losses from financial meltdown
grim: one advantage for having The Chosen One is that agencies such as NJT are more likely to get a second consideration for their needs versus adding an extra lane to a highway out in Phoenix under a Republican Administration.
Helping NJT….DIRECTLY helps Amtrak…which helps DC to Boston keep cars off the roads…..
Be sure to notice the phallic flash used on the wine site I linked above.
if you want an invite to USAA e-mail me. members can invite non-members.
Is this so? I’m interested.
kettle1 says:
January 26, 2009 at 1:54 pm
ChiFi if you want an invite to USAA e-mail me. members can invite non-members.
We have renters insurance with a couple of endorsements on the policy. We also insure two cars for $1,100 FOR THE YEAR. We also received a divdend from NJM for $225. So technically, our 4/1/07-3/31/08 car insurance was $875.
These guys are solvent and customer friendly….
Attention SKF holders…
“Bank stocks advance despite analyst warnings”
Helloooooooo…greedy bastards!
hmmm,
think USAA would mind me inviting a few hundred people……
ChiFi, actually I am still in college, taking a class right now in federal taxation, can’t be a BOD Financial Expert without staying fresh. So I am in Federal Taxation and this 19 yo girl on first day of class today in freezing weather has a fleece she takes off cause class is hot and she is wearing a very revealing lacey tank top with low rider jeans with her victorias secrets thong hanging out. That girl was inflating more than balance sheets this morning. Most of the girls looked like they were on their way to work at Yips, still don’t know why that girl was wasting time learning about financial assets when her physical assets were as good as gold.
chicagofinance says:
January 26, 2009 at 1:54 pm
John says:
January 26, 2009 at 1:48 pm
Stu when I was in college ……
I’m thinking…OK here it goes….
I think my insurance company pays me to insure my 95 Civic!
Kettle1:
“think USAA would mind me inviting a few hundred people……”
What’s it worth to ya?
Chifi,
read the comments to fast, thought you were looking….
I have only heard good things about NJMF….
Stu,
e-mail grim
Kettle1,
I owe ya one!
CHiFI
the Schiff pile one……
It seems everyone wants a scape goat. He for told doom and gloom and doing so sets you up to be piled on the second you arent 100% on.
i dont agree with a lot of what schiff has to say but then again he’s the billionaire and i’m not.
all these layoffs and not one word about the health insurance biz hurting, laying off. The mafia does ok in hard times.
Barbara,
Not a health insurer, but hot off the wires.
From Bloomberg:
Lincoln Slashes 5% of Workers Amid Profit Decline
Lincoln National Corp., the Philadelphia-based life insurer, is cutting five percent of staff, or about 540 jobs, after posting five straight declines in quarterly profit.
chi (219)-
Rohypnol dissolves in any kind of liquid.
“Dr. Loosen? Just by the name, I probably could have used some more of that wine for my dates when I was 18-19….”
From Medical Marketing and Media:
Pfizer/Wyeth cuts could top 20,000
I like women, pork and beans, I like the girlies in the skin tight jeans.
Schiff is easy to pile onto because of EuroPacific’s horrible short-term track record and, increasingly, the public knowledge of Schiff’s crackpot dad.
John (249)-
What makes me think you may have actually written a Valentine to your wife that contains that line?
The best thing I saw on TV last week was Schiff laying wood to Kudlow. Classic.
From CNBC:
US to Stay in ‘Intense Recession’ Through Spring: Group
The US is likely to remain in an “intense recession” through the spring, the Conference Board said Monday, despite a surprising climb in the group’s main forecasting gauge last month.
…
The US is likely to remain in an “intense recession” through the spring, the Conference Board said Monday, despite a surprising climb in the group’s main forecasting gauge last month.
The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.3% in December, mainly due to the “continued and very large” increase in the money supply because of the flood of federal bailouts, the private research group said.
The rise in the index, which is designed to forecast economic activity six to nine months ahead, came after a 0.4% decline in November. Economists had expected a 0.3% decline for last month.
But with nearly every component but the money supply in decline, the Conference Board said unemployment could rise to 9 percent from 7.2 percent as the country remains in an intense recession through spring.
OT: Any Excel experts here?
I have about 60,000 different times in a column. I need to count how many times fell between 0 and 1:00, 1:00 and 2:00 and so on to make a graph determining best 24-hour shift coverage. I’ve done this in my sleep in the past, but I seem to be suffering from some mental block. Any help appreciated. I hate working with times in excel.
I don’t ask for much. But if one of you gun nuts decides to go postal, could you make sure to take out that Rich Dad guy?
#255 – take out that Rich Dad guy?
I keep hearing ads for some sort of Rich Dad lecture in NYC sometime soon.
It wasn’t too clear if Kyosaki was actually going to be there though.
*jots down Rich Dad Guy*
stu – use a pivot table, it’s an easy way to manage that much data
Shawn: I am :(
Stu, on Excel, did u try a pivot table?
$13M house sold for $100. No wodner Lehman went down.
“Richard Fuld, the disgraced former chief executive of Lehman Brothers, sold his $13.3 million (£9.6 million) Florida mansion to his wife in November for $100, according to real estate records. Mr Fuld, who is widely blamed for the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September last year, bought the house with his wife, Kathleen, in March 2004 for $13.75 million. On November 10, the 62-year-old banker transferred the seaside mansion into Mrs Fuld’s name in return for $100. Mr Fuld is expected to face civil lawsuits from shareholders furious that he allowed Lehman to fall into bankruptcy rather than be sold”
source redacted as it is not extreme left-wing rag, to satisfy njgator
can you group by using the value filters?
246.
Grim,
I scanned that article (got to leave in a min) but those are Life insurers, right?
I was talking about health insurance, which goes up every year while they lower the benefits.
The only reason imo health insurers stay to far in the black is because they run a criminal enterprise (try to obtain your FULL contract with your health insurer, not the 15 page thingy they send you with your new cards, the actual contract. Good luck). So where is the anger in the midst of all of this financial chaos? I guess people are just glad for now they do not need a bailout.
to=so
hey stu, if you still have problems – feel free to send me a copy of the data. I spend all day in excel working w/massive amounts of data. shawn.bostwick@gmail.com
[246] grim
They could save the 5% just by relocating the rest of the staff out of Philadelphia. Lincoln relocated the CEO’s office to Radnor a few years ago, and said CEO, who was not a Phila. resident, got a $1MM+ raise overnight.
Hey has anyone seen that movie “My best friends girl” that just came to vido, I loved it when he dropped trou to the mother of the bride and said hey it’s now going to blow itself. or when the priest says he would love to screw a boy and the rabbi says screw him out of lot
Clotpoll says:
January 26, 2009 at 2:42 pm
John (249)-
What makes me think you may have actually written a Valentine to your wife that contains that line?
Robert Kiyoaski isn’t worth the bullet needed to cap him.
“What Recession? McDonald’s Continues Its Global Growth”
http://tinyurl.com/bxc63o
-create 12,000 jobs and open 240 new restaurants across Europe
Re: Peter Schiff
He doesn’t walk on water. I love him cause he’s a straight shooter.
He personally e-mailed me to advise me against being in over 90% GOLD (physical). When I brushed him off he called me to advise me against it.
If you just give anyone your money you’re gonna get taken to the slaughter house.
I invest with peter and will listen to his ideas but my capital only goes to the asset class of my choice.
I think it’s really cool to see your broker on TV laying the Goldilock and muster seeds smack down.
He clearly missed th edeflation call and he acknoledges it however if his massive inflation call materializes than he’s a genious.
So far Roubini and Kettle are the only two people I know that called this deflation and Dollar Rally.
#268 – A beating then? Perchance we can kick him to death, a la Goodfellas?
So far Roubini and Kettle are the only two people I know that called this deflation and Dollar Rally.
Deflation rally was obvious. Didn’t expect to see the dollar rally though.
Stu
Create a new column and set a custom format on the cells to h;@
That will round the time up to the hour and let you do a quick pivot table.
there is something symbolic here surely… owner of Hickey Freeman (HartMarx) filed for bankruptcy today.
moderation?
i hate that east german tactic..
SAS
“Economy in free fall in fourth quarter
Worst quarter since early 1980s, and more to come”
http://tinyurl.com/bq6436
tosh (270)-
Stylish. I could use him to break in my new Timberlands.
PGC…good idea. Let me try it.
“Gas Station Takes on Exxon”
http://tinyurl.com/ag363z
*Has gas broken the $4 mark again? It has in Summit, NJ where one station is charging $4.89 a gallon to protest against a zone pricing policy used by Exxon.
make [269,
Faber, who is a long term dollar bear, called the dollar rally. Called it from the low.
I loved this exerpt rom Schiff’s wiki page:
In his January 14, 2009 radio show, Schiff discussed moving out of cities in anticipation of rising crime rates, food shortages, fuel shortages, and rolling blackouts. He also mentioned the need for families to stock up on guns and ammunition as a part of what he expects. This quasi-survivalist stance demonstrates how serious he expects the unfolding economic downturn will be.
280 SAS – That station has always been massively more expensive than any other gas station around. I have often wondered who actually purchased gasoline there.
All. Thanks for the help. Major props to Shawn212 for the excel help. For those who care, main problem was stripping the unneeded date information from the date/time column. I didn’t create the data unfortunately. Crazy to have these two combined in one field in our oracle dbase eh?
Thanks again all.
DO NOT BUY AUTO FROM NJM OR ALLSTATE INSURANCE!!!!
Let me explain to you how the game is paid. We have a great many people in NJ who drive without auto insurance or the bare min. limits. I assume that you all are responsible and more than the min. limits. If you are hit by one of these drivers, you are suing for Uninsured or Underinsured Motorist benefits. NJM and Allstate will not allow you to arbitrate these cases. The policy language used to allow you to do so. You will have to try them. They will defend the case from the position of the person who hit you.
More than likely, you will have tried to save money and selected the “limitation on lawsuit” option on your policy. If that is the case, they will NEVER settle with you and will make you try the case. You will spend thousands of dollars bring your case to trial.
But you never were injured before this accident and now are experiencing pain? SO WHAT!!! They will hire doctors to come and testify that via their review of your records, MRI films, a physical examination of you, ect., all you sustained was sprain and whatever the MRI films shows it is only degenerative changes (Assuming that you have neck and back injuries and you have not sustained a fracture in the accident).
The Jury will hear this and within 45 minutes, you will be “no caused” and you will get nothing.
However, if you do not think you will ever get in accident, then it is worth doing business with these companies.
Just a word to the wise.
happy to help
SAS:
Awesome find. Always wondered what that guy was doing with the expensive gas. He was over $5 for regular during the peak.
Re Mish/Schiff,
This dollar rally has a lot more to do with 90% of the world’s debt being dollar denominated than it does any sort of vote/endorsement for the future of this country. Once you see the end to the writedowns etc watch out below.
Moreover any stimulus the Chinese and Gulf States do is going to come out of their dollar reserves which will just add to the dollars floating around the world.
morpheus says:
January 26, 2009 at 3:52 pm
However, if you do not think you will ever get in accident AND ATTEMPT TO EXTORT AN OUT OF COURT SETTLEMENT WITH AN AMBULANCE CHASING ATTORNEY, then it is worth doing business with these companies.
Allow my edit…..
he [288],
Also, repatriation from hedge fund deleveraging. In addition to this, CDS are settled in US Dollars. The unwinding of these have had an enormous impact.
You are absolutely correct, no endorsement whatsover.
BC Bob,
Re: Faber vs Schiff,
I agree Faber has been solid. But nobody is perfect. Look at Faber on 11/21/2008 predicting a major equity rally and states that stocks have been over sold.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDsaUD5KPdE&feature=related
What do you think he missed this one?
3. But Wait, the Federal Reserve and Congress Are Spending Trillions to Get the Merry-Go-Round Running Again…
Isn’t that inflationary? One day, perhaps. But today, this week, this year, even as the Federal Reserve and Congress are busy doing their best to inflate the money supply, there is actually an increasing shortage of dollars.
Say again?
Look, forget what you have heard and read this weekend. Forget for a moment the multi-trillion dollar deficit and the Federal Reserve’s expansion of its balance sheet.
What we have is deep, structural deflation. What does that mean? Well, in addition to risk aversion and balance sheet repair creating a demand for dollars (you can’t pay your credit card bill with a bar of gold or a herd of cattle) what is happening is that people who thought they may have had a certain amount of dollars based on the perceived value of the assets they own (stocks, home, etc.) are discovering that they when they go to sell those assets they, in fact, do not have as many dollars. This is creating a dollar shortage. And the Fed and Congress can’t, even working together, create more dollars fast enough.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/gold-Fed-spending-treasury-GEITHNER-milan/index/a/20772/p/1
BC,
Of course that’s not the reaction of Krudlow and the rest of the CNBC cabal. “People want dollars because they are: safe, because we still have the strongest economy, we are the envy of the world …yada, yada, yada”
today mass layoffs.
i had that feeling on Fri, thought it would take place on Fri.
off by a few days.
SAS
sas 280 Summit Gas
http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/story?section=news/7_on_your_side&id=6621711
… I think Mr. Chang doesn’t wanna pump gas. I see some stations in my ‘hood do this by inflating prices by $0.20 or so, not $3.00.
Maybe he ran the numbers and he gets just enough customers who don’t look at the prices until after he hands them a receipt to make it worth his while at those prices vs. lost business.
Hey does that mean I should buy their stock? If they collect prems and don’t pay out that is a good thing for shareholders. Actually, from an economic point of view a person on welfare or a person with debt up to their eyeballs or a person with multiple tickets it makes sense for them to drive with little or no insurance. insurance is to protect yourself in the case of an accident. If you car is worthless and you have no assets there is little reason to buy much car insurances, other than even though you are dumpster diving for dinner you still would feel guilty if you hit a stockbrokers benz and you could not afford to fix it for him.
morpheus says:
January 26, 2009 at 3:52 pm
DO NOT BUY AUTO FROM NJM OR ALLSTATE INSURANCE!!!!
make [291],
That is correct. I was only referring to his dollar call.
I just got a letter from the landlord (knew it was coming eventually and have been looking) – 60-90 days to move out – he’s sold the place and we’re on a month to month. I’ve been there (Westfield) 2 years, went in with one kid, moving out with 2. The amount of toys alone I have to pack!
So in 90 days I’ll either have a story about what buying is like now, or a report on the negotiability of rents.
Gotta go get pre-approved (I’ve got 20% and high credit scores) then make some calls and act calm.
Any of the agents on the board could you please get me some info on this property. MLS 2599055. Thanks.
52 Wildwood in West Orange? Under Contract. Let me know if this is the property and I’ll post up details.
Make,
I still think that Schiff has a good chance of being right on the inflation call, just after the deflationary period.
The catch in my opinion is that a major currency collapse could be an alternate route that avoids hyperinflation due to widespread revaluation.
In either case i do expect to see governments crack down on gold ownership. it represents to much risk to their manipulation of the situation as the pressures increase.
Note: this the opinion of a highschool janitor, listen to it at your own risk.
make,
want to hook me up with a chat with schiff. That would make my day. would be an interesting discussion.
—–
Stu
use a nested COUNTIF function
example
=COUNTIF(B2:B5,”>=32″)-COUNTIF(B2:B5,”>85″)
fun chart of the day
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_9ZzZquaXrR8/SX4CQcqF-uI/AAAAAAAACzg/Wt4z8ydXuxk/s1600-h/WarningMegabanks1.jpg
source
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/warning-megabanks-could-fail-despite-federal-aid-2-29412
Yep thats the one.
An opinion is just an onion with a p in it.
kettle1 says:
January 26, 2009 at 5:09 pm
Make,
The catch in my opinion is that a major currency collapse could be an alternate route that avoids hyperinflation due to widespread revaluation.
make,
want to hook me up with a chat with schiff. That would make my day. would be an interesting discussion.
I only spoke to him twice. He has his own radio show where he takes calls from listers on Wensday between 8:00Pm and 9:00PM.
A major currency devaluation is the same as hyperinflation. no?
“Texas Instruments to cut 12 percent of jobs”
http://tinyurl.com/bghfhc
Comrade:
We can help outfit the compound…
We have this:
http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b385/damonr/DEUCE/DSC00387.jpg
Here’s a closer-up view:
http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b385/damonr/DEUCE/DSC01499.jpg
New thread, move it up!
Guys, I wanted to share some concerns with PSE&G /my gas bill and would like to know if they are legitimate or I am being unreasonable.
I’m in a middle unit townhouse and went on vacation with –
1. turning off the AC (yes I know that’s bad, but thats not the point here)
2. put the water heater on ‘vacation’.
There are no other gas appliances.
Total days in the house during the Gas billing cycle : 6 days.
total therms used: 44
total gas charges: $73 (of which delivery charges are $24).
Electricity charges for these 6 days: $32.
(Total gas+elec $105)
Now, is this normal?
I dont think I used $105 worth energy in 6 days.
Comments?
Was your bill estimated or actual?
I think it’s great that mortgage rates are going down, and I think this will help people feel more comfortable buying a home. I’m buying a home through Taylor Morrison (learn more about them on their website – http://dreambig.taylormorrison.com/?utm_source=bc – and enter to win a dream vacation while you’re there) and I’m excited to get a good rate – and the first time home buyers credit will be a welcome bonus to me and to my local economy.