January mass layoff/facility closure notifications were released by the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development:
COMPANY CITY EFFECTIVE DATE WORKFORCE AFFECTED
Silverton Marine Corp Millville 1/30/09 202
Nielson & Bainbridge Monroe Twp. 3/11/09 105
Apex Express, Inc Jersey City 3/5/09 110
MW Manufacturers Hammonton 3/20/09 212
Motorola, Inc. S. Plainfield 3/27/09 50
Book-Mart Press N. Bergen 3/13/09 72
DSNJ Lakewood 3/7/09 161
Pliva, Inc. East Hanover 4/27/09 120
ITT Systems Division Ft. Dix 3/28/09 83
Roadway Express E. Brunswick 3/1/09 72
Siemens Building Technologies Florham Park 3/9/09 153
Viking Yacht Company New Gretna 3/31/09 541
King Pharmaceuticals Bridgewater 3/29/09 71
BMW of North America Mt Olive 3/31/09 10
Alcan Baltek Northvale 4/23/09 70
Circuit City Stores, Inc. Ledgewood 3/21/09 84
Ryder Integrated Logistics Ledgewood 4/03/09 100
From the NY Times:
Senate Advances Tax Break for Homebuyers
The Senate on Wednesday voted to expand the economic stimulus package with a tax credit for homebuyers of up to $15,000, a provision championed by Republicans as addressing a root cause of the recession.
The vote to add the tax credit, at a cost of about $18.5 billion, came as Senate leaders seemed to be nearing completion of negotiations. The majority leader, Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, suggested that a final vote on the stimulus plan could come on Thursday.
…
The tax break for homebuyers, which the Senate approved by voice vote without opposition, was the second amendment in two days intended to encourage consumers to make major purchases. On Tuesday, the Senate approved a tax incentive for car buyers, sponsored by Senator Barbara A. Mikulski, Democrat of Maryland, that would allow the deduction of sales tax and loan interest on purchases made this year.
But while both of those incentives were applauded by lawmakers who said that the bill should quickly induce consumer spending, some economists said they were short-sighted and lacked the forward-thinking approach Mr. Obama has demanded.
Adam Posen, deputy director of the Peterson Institute of International Economics, said that homebuyers would have trouble accessing loans because of the continued tightness in the credit markets and that the car buyer incentive fell short by not focusing on fuel-efficient vehicles, and that the money might be better directed at mass transit.
“They are also structurally unsound,” Mr. Posen said of the two provisions, “reinforcing the attempts of industries that are too large — housing construction, automobile production — to survive based on government distortions.”
He called them both “terrible, pandering ideas.”
…
But Senator Johnny Isakson, Republican of Georgia, a former real estate broker, who was the prime sponsor of the homebuyer credit, said it was modeled after a similar, $2,000 homebuyer incentive that helped lead the country out of recession in 1975.
“We do have a history in this country with housing and it goes back to the crash of 1974, which actually in terms of inventory and price declines was comparable to what’s happening now,” Mr. Isakson said at a news conference.
From the APP:
Trump casinos trying to work out deal to avoid bankruptcy
Trump Entertainment Resorts is trying to work out a refinancing deal to give it some financial breathing room.
Donald Trump’s casino company remained in talks Wednesday evening with its bond holders on restructuring $1.25 billion in debt. Today is the deadline set by both sides to work out a new deal.
If a deal cannot be worked out, many analysts believe the company would have to seek Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
Also from the APP:
Unemployment in Ocean County rises above state average
Unemployment in Ocean County has reached 7.9 percent, almost one point above the state average, according to Freeholder Gerry P. Little.
“As a result of that, our Board of Social Services is experiencing a tremendous increase in the volume of individuals needing help, requesting help in services,” Little said this evening as he led a meeting of the Board of Chosen Freeholders.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Housing Slump Has ‘Just Begun,’ Says Forecaster Talbott
Let’s say you own a $1 million home in Santa Barbara, California.
The house seemed like a steal when you bought it with that adjustable-rate mortgage in 2005. You still love the white beaches and those yachts bobbing up and down in the harbor.
Then you awaken early one morning, troubled that your monthly payments will soon double. You go out to pick up your newspaper and see for-sale signs on five houses on the street. One identical to yours just sold for $500,000.
Are you going to pay the bank $1 million plus interest for your place? John R. Talbott, a former investment banker for Goldman Sachs, poses that hypothetical question in his latest book of financial prophesy, “Contagion.”
His answer: “I don’t think so,” he says. “If I’m right, then this housing decline has only just begun.”
Talbott is an oracle with a track record: His previous books predicted the collapse of both the housing bubble and the tech-stock binge before it. A friend who runs a New York steak house introduces him as Johnny Nostradamus, he says.
What sets him apart from other doomsayers is his relentless emphasis on simple arithmetic. He walks you through the numbers to show how U.S. house prices got so out of kilter with wages, rental prices and replacement values — the cost of buying a property and building a home. (“Homes in California by 2006 were selling at three to five times what it would cost to build a similar home from scratch,” he writes.)
…
Talbott’s latest predictions are sobering. The U.S. is only halfway through the total potential decline in housing prices, he says. Home values will continue to deteriorate for four to five years, he forecasts. Adjustable-rate mortgages issued in 2004 and 2005, for example, are only now resetting for the first time, he notes.
As many houses in hot towns have doubled, tripled or more since 1996, it would seem only logical that these homes should return to their 1996 prices. There are houses that were listed in Chatham for $400K in 1996 that people are now trying to sell for $1.2 to $1.75 million. Its crazy. While levels there may not return to 1996 levels, i would liek to think that the price adjusted for inflation is somewhere between $400K and $800K.
any thoughts?
Interesting, I wonder if we’ll see nationwide environmental backlash against stimulus-provoked infrastructure projects. Deploying the infrastructure dollars may be harder than we think.
From the Star Ledger:
Groups sue to stop widening of Parkway
A transit watchdog group and nonprofit environmental law center filed suit yesterday to stop plans to widen the Garden State Parkway in South Jersey, contending the project will bring unnecessary development to the area and increase pollution without achieving its stated goal of reducing traffic congestion.
So much for trying to rebuild our economy through infrastructure.
From the Warren Reporter:
BASF Belvidere plant closing having far reaching impacts
A challenging municipal budget, rising costs and cuts in state aid have Belvidere officials wondering what the closing of BASF manufacturing could mean to the town with an already reduced tax base. BASF recently announced the closing of its Belvidere site by the end of 2010 and the future of the site is as yet undetermined.
“It’s obviously a devastating blow to Belvidere. Not only are they (BASF) our largest tax payer; some of the employees live in Belvidere,” Mayor Charles Liegel said. “Anytime a big operation goes out of business, it’s a blow to Belvidere, the county, the state and the nation.”
The mayor also expressed concern for Belvidere residents who are employed at the plant. BASF employees were notified of the plants’ closing on Jan. 13.
“In less than two years there is going to be over 100 tax payers, and their families, without jobs and without benefits,” Liegel said.
From the Record:
Fortunoff reportedly in talks with liquidators
Troubled jewelry and home furnishings retailer Fortunoff reportedly is in talks with liquidators, raising the possibility of three new — and difficult to fill — retail vacancies in North Jersey.
…
Fortunoff has two stores in Paramus and one in Wayne. It has a yard and home store on northbound Route 17 in Paramus and a jewelry and gift store at the Paramus Park mall. The company has a full-size Fortunoff jewelry and home store at the Wayne Towne Center mall in Wayne.
The home store on Route 17, if vacated, would join more than a half-dozen empty furniture sites within a 3-mile radius of the intersection of Routes 4 and 17. Furniture stores often are difficult to re-lease to anything other than another furniture store. They are designed with a maximum of showroom space and a minimum of parking space, because furniture stores aren’t considered high-traffic retail. The nationwide housing slump has hit furniture retailers hard and created a greater supply of vacant stores than there is demand.
lord and taylor next. finished.
followed by pier one,
7 – Belvidere. Maybe its time to finally start consolidating towns. why do we need 566 separate municipalities in jersey.
5 – Shelly I sold my 3 bed 1.5 bath Chatham boro colonial in 1995 for 250k. It last sold in 06 for 600k. seeing the average chat house back in the 200s – that would be interesting.
consolidation will never take place in
nj until they are sitting on milk crates.
even then, they will think nj is different.
nj a complete basket and welfare state.
go jon
SG – From yesterday #196 – Niall Ferguson and #285 – Bailout for the people
It takes me forever to read up – rising early to become educated to the best of my ability. But please know I appreciate your posts very much and do read them when I can put together a few hours to review the day’s events.
Thank You
In a world of declining oil it only makes sense to spend a bunch of money on highways.
http://www.sacbee.com/capitolandcalifornia/story/1600656.html
Revolt Brews in Counties – CA
In a world of declining oil it only makes sense to spend a bunch of money on highways.
I’d love nothing more than to see a penalty tax on gasoline/consumer diesel with those penalties subsidizing mass transit development.
I don’t want to drive my car to the office, but I have no other choice.
Bank of England cuts rates to 1%, ECB due out shortly.
From MarketWatch/Bankrate:
Average 30-year fixed mortgage rises to 5.70%: Bankrate
Average jumbo 30-yr fixed mortgage rises to 7.12%: Bankrate
Average 15-year fixed mortgage rises to 5.31%: Bankrate
Average one-year ARM falls to 5.73%: Bankrate
Average 5/1 ARM rises to 5.5%: Bankrate
Why is there a Chatham and a Chatham Township? They have two seperate everythings. Do they really need that? No. In NJ we should be consolidatng towns and reducing staffing.
Grim,
Mass transit will only be pushed in this country when it is too late. There’s no problems until there’s a crisis in DC.
ECB holds at 2%!
Why is there a Chatham and a Chatham Township?
Status quo for Morris County…
Boonton Town/Boonton Twp
Chester Boro/Chester Twp
Mendham Boro/Mendham Twp
Rockaway Boro/Rockaway Twp
“Why is there a Chatham and a Chatham Township?”
Maybe it’s the precursor for the Good Bank/Bad Bank
“In a world of declining oil it only makes sense to spend a bunch of money on highways.”
In the meantime China is buying energy/mining/mineral firms while we look to create spending plans, transferring wealth, that will only debase our currency and result in future inflation. Forget about dead banks, use TARP to increase our energy reserves. Be creative, produce goods and services that world consumers,[if there are any left] want to buy.
Stop the press conferences, throw away the band aids and let the fed/treasury walk away.
don’t pick on morris — princeton, hopewell, clinton
and the hidden ones like metuchen/edison, lambertville/west amwell, frenchtown/kingwood, scotch plains/fanwood, millstone/hillsborough
and why are glen ridge, guttenberg, teterboro, shall I go on, separate municipalities?
the story on Chatham I heard was late 1800s, downtown was spending too much on improving the Main street and the farmers in the southern end of town revolted and seceded. It was a very common thing back in the late 1800s early 1900s
PA, at least eastern PA, is very similar–tiny towns that really have no reason for being
How about these?
Corbin City – 530 Residents
Rockleigh – 393
Teterboro – 18
Fieldsboro – 577
Washington Twp (Burlington) – 651
Wrightstown – 741
Tavistock – 26
Cape May Point – 230
West Wildwood – 408
Greenwich – 893
Shiloh – 650
Bloomsbury – 881
Stockton – 555
Allenhurst – 701
Interlaken – 881
Loch Arbor – 274
Roosevelt – 913
Barnegat Light – 833
Harvey Cedars – 389
Mantoloking – 451
Far Hills – 928
Millstone – 430
Rocky Hill – 678
Andover – 654
Branchville – 839
Walpack – 40
BC,
There’s no campaign contributions in all of that.
23-
I think there are 3 different Washington Townships in the state as well.
Given the weekly readership of this site, I believe we have enough “residents” to become our own NJ municipality.
Fitch cuts Starwood ratings to junk
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/02/04/ap6008560.html
May explain some of the people trying to sell out of the Hoboken condo-hotel.
30 – well that means we need our own school district and administration
30- and money sucking municipal unions
Shelly,
There is a LOT of this in NJ, well beyond the Boro/Twps of the same names. Look at Loch Arbor, population of, what, 300? Doesn’t Teterboro have a population of less than 30? Why South Belmar (okay, now “Lako Como), Belmar, Avon, and Bradley beach in a two-mile span, with duplicative municipal offices and infrastructure.
Onc could likely reduce the number of municipalities from, it must be close to, 1,000 to about 200 without any loss of services, without diminishing “responsiveness” – as if most of these governments are “responsive” in the first place — and while saving a boatload of money.
The same holds true for school districts. There are about 600 school districts in the state. A good number of these are little ones and a good amount of money could be saved through mandatory regionalization. I know of other states that did mass regionilization back in the day and are none the worse for it.
With respect to municipalities and school districts, if the state mandates consolidation and the tows/districts refuse, they should lose ALL state aid. If one wants to go off in one’s own direction, which is contrary to the interests of the state as a whole, one should be willing to fully pay for the costs of doing so.
I suspect that one could cut overall government spending by a good 20% or more, through school regionalization, municipal consolidation, eliminating or consolidating the various boards and commissions that dot the political landscape of NJ.
Places like Louisville even managed to gain political clout via consolidation. They took what was not a particularly large city, accreted a bunch of suburbs and, volia, they had a large city population wise.
May explain some of the people trying to sell out of the Hoboken condo-hotel.
I’d love to read the ownership agreement. Seems like a risky endeavor. Not unlike a coop arrangement where your neighbor units are all owned by a single owner (read: you are left holding his bag if he faces financial distress). What happens if Sheraton/Starwood wants of the property? How are changes in ownership/branding handled? Hotels routinely flip brands, it isn’t out of the ordinary to see ownership changes.
Did buyers purchase units in this building based on the “prestige” of the W brand? I sure hope not.
Kind of like the view, don’t fall in love with it unless you own it.
“One could likely reduce the number of municipalities from, it must be close to, 1,000 ”
there are 566 municipalities (we lost one a couple years ago) and yes there are more school districts than municipalities
It’s not surprising to see the yacht-makers and logistics firms having layoffs but DSNJ? That one hurts. There is going to be a lot more of this and its not just the unemployment that stings, but the displacement of these men and women with disabilities that this non-profit served is deeply troubling. This is just the tip of the iceberg as former philanthropists that funded these organizations deal with being Maddoffed.
grim [35]
The Red Roof Inn Hoboken doesn’t really have the same ring to it, does it?
There are 7 Washington Twps. in NJ but hey… it doesn’t matter. We’re prestigous. I know that for sure because when I look at the listings, I see prices holding very nicely near peak. We’re insulated, bubble proof.
The Cramps’ frontman Lux Interior died in Glendale, California today (February 4). The frontman of the highly influential New York punk band was 62.
***I wonder if he knew Crushed Valor***
Jobless claims breach the 600,000 range.
Ugly
From MarketWatch:
U.S. weekly initial jobless claims up 35,000 to 626,000
U.S. jobless claims at highest level since Oct. 1982
U.S. 4-week avg. jobless claims up 39,000 to 582,250
U.S. continuing jobless claims up 20,000 to record 4.79 mln
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Jumped to 26-Year High Last Week
The number of Americans filing first- time claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly jumped last week to a 26-year high, signaling a deepening deterioration in the labor market.
Initial jobless claims increased by 35,000 to 626,000 in the week ended Jan. 31, the highest level since October 1982, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The total number of people collecting benefits jumped to a record 4.788 million a week earlier.
Companies ranging from Macy’s Inc. to PNC Financial Services Group Inc. are announcing job cuts as consumers and businesses rein in spending and that is likely to prompt even further pullbacks in coming weeks. The government is forecast to report tomorrow that the U.S. lost 540,000 jobs in January.
“We still have yet to see the worst of the layoffs and job losses,” Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, said before the report. “The fact that the pace of job declines is quickening does add to the political pressure to get something done and to compromise.”
one thing you have to understand about consolidating towns and their employees, in NJ, many families have one spouse in the private sector and one spouse on the govt payroll. Teachers, admins, munis, cops, firefighters, state, etc. Its deeply entrenched and we don’t have the private sector to make up the difference. Also, towns cut along racial lines, the ugly truth about NJ is its more segregated than the south. Watch parents have a melt down over a 6 point different in one town’s SAT scores vs the neighboring town’s scores (see CherryHill East/West).
All kinds of nonsense in this redunk state of ours.
Something big is about to happen.
Clot:
Care to elaborate on your statement….
From the Star Ledger:
Landmark Weehawken waterfront restaurant closes
Arthur’s Landing, a landmark restaurant in Weehawken, has closed after nearly 20 years, a victim of the economic crisis.
Dry Dock Restauarant Corp. Chairman Armand Pohan said, in a message on the restaurant’s web site there was no choice given the severity of the downturn and the unlikelihood of a quick turnaround.
The restaurant has 300 seats and 70 employees.
Clot [45],
An explosion. Don’t know if it will be 1 of the 50 hot spots or some combination. What’s the over/under.
Also, towns cut along racial lines, the ugly truth about NJ is its more segregated than the south.
Not only race, but class (socioeconomic status).
Classism is so rampant in this state that it almost defines the NJ stereotype.
Is this it?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29029912
White House Plans Limited Bank Aid Package
I wonder if Bruce will play it. Will it be simulcast on VH1 or MTV?
49.
grim,
true that
Is that something like Band Aid?
Feeed the Bannkkkerrrs
Don’t you know it’s bonus time!
Feeeeed theee Baaaankers
Don’t you know it’s bonus time again!
The Pink Panther 2 is opening on over 3000+ screens tomorrow.
… not the “big” thing you were referring to, huh Clot?
Only one tube is available on NJ Transit/Amtrak in and out of the city causing 60 min+ delays, but that can’t be the big thing either as its a weekly occurrence at this point.
I want to add to my previous list of predictions that there will be a NJ Transit incident involving a throng of angry NJT customers who face delays on an every other day basis.
“White House Plans Limited Bank Aid Package”
“I wonder if Bruce will play it. Will it be simulcast on VH1 or MTV?”
hughes [50],
Cover Me or Badlands?
44 and 49 – exactly right. even further, my town is divided into the good zip code and the bad zip code. luckily, i’m on the right side of town.
had southeastern Plainfield predicted the riots in the 60s we’d probably have a Sleepy Hollow Township. Morris township is still trying to get out of the morris school district, etc.
I’ll take the Boy George line
“And In Their World Of Plenty, We Must Spread Our Wealth, Enjoy! Wrap Your Arms Around The Tarp, At Bonus Time!”
Take in, Wham.
Take it, that is
54
Cover Me would be more appropriate.
But I figure it is a show for the masses, I’d lay my money on Dancing in the Dark with a guest spot for Courtney Cox, sponsored by ItiBank.
THIS JUST IN: Barr*ck Ob*ma just turned water into wine!
And there won’t be private jet travel on Wall Street this Christmas time
The greatest gift they’ll get this year is a First Class seat
(Oooh) Where CDO values never grow
No steak dinners nor bottle service flow
Do they know it’s Christmas time at all
Historically, homes appreciate around 4% a year. A better indicator of the bottom would be Jan 1st 1996 price with a annual 4% compounded to arrive at a Jan 1st 2009 price. That would be the price if no bubble occured.
Shelley says:
February 5, 2009 at 6:05 am
As many houses in hot towns have doubled, tripled or more since 1996, it would seem only logical that these homes should return to their 1996 prices. There are houses that were listed in Chatham for $400K in 1996 that people are now trying to sell for $1.2 to $1.75 million. Its crazy. While levels there may not return to 1996 levels, i would liek to think that the price adjusted for inflation is somewhere between $400K and $800K.
any thoughts?
“Groups sue to stop widening of Parkway”
In a world of declining oil it only makes sense to spend a bunch of money on highways.
Japanese did plenty of that following their meltdown.
Now that we need to sell astronomical amounts of gov’t debt, it’s ironic that the “stimulus” will only make the housing problem worse as mortage rates rise.
Barb: I have to laugh at some the the upper nose attitudes in the towns in SJ. Haddonfield, Morrestown, and CH come to mind. I suspect many in the U.S. who have grown up being told we’re the world’s richest nation, and have never left the country, don’t realize how third world most of our cities are.
Leaving for Munich tomorrow to listen to our VP and assorted heads of state. Should be a depressing weekend.
grim says:
February 5, 2009 at 7:56 am
How about these?
slackoid: Clifton should be merged into Paterson
“Groups sue to stop widening of Parkway”
South Jersey and South-Central Jersey has been hostile to road widening for decades. The line has often been, “If we widenthe roads, those people from North Jersey will move in and ruin this place.” Notwithstanding the general lack of infrastructure improvements over the years (just look at Rt 9 from Toms River south to the Atlantic County line, or the Hooper Avenue/Brick Blve area) people poured into Ocean County and, while the population skyrocketed, the roadways remained largely unchanged from what they were in the 1960s. Consequently, it iw worse driving in ocean county than, New York, Newark, or any number of places the folks in Ocean County love to hate.
“Groups sue to stop widening of Parkway”
did they run out of box turtles?
passaic,paterson,clifton,
merged into wonderworld
welfare,s8,food stamps,health care
DL grew up in SOJO, delusional doesn’t even begin to describe the faux classism there. Their idea of wealth is an in ground pool and two late model SUVs and a narly wife with multiple Coach logo bags.
Classism is so rampant in this state that it almost defines the NJ stereotype.
Look at the furor over Mt. Laurel housing. I don’t understand it. I grew up among rich and those collecting food stamps.
slackoid: Clifton should be merged into Paterson
Geographically, a merger with Passaic would make more sense. These two towns share a very wide border in addition to having a significant number of thoroughfares that cross over town lines.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Passaic_County,_NJ_municipalities_labeled.png
Woodland Park might not be a bad addition as well, but it would make more sense to see a Totowa/Little Falls/West Paterson merger.
Might make sense for North Haledon, Haledon, and Prospect Park to merge. As well as Bloomingdale, Pompton Lakes, and Wanaque.
That would reduce Passaic County municipalities to 8 from 16.
hardplace, in SJ, the big bugaboo is Camden. There is this fear that no matter where you live in SJ, Camden is knocking on your door and about to settle in for good.
Essex says:
February 5, 2009 at 8:36 am
The Cramps’ frontman Lux Interior died in Glendale, California today (February 4). The frontman of the highly influential New York punk band was 62.
***I wonder if he knew Crushed Valor***
TROLL
wow, I was you tube-ing some cramps stuff yesterday.
Clotpoll says:
February 5, 2009 at 8:43 am
Something big is about to happen.
Did you sleep last night at a Holiday Inn Express?
All this talk about merging municipalities. That makes too much sense for NJ govt. Carry on with the status quo.
76. Corzine practically ran on the idea. What a laugh
gary says:
February 5, 2009 at 9:00 am
THIS JUST IN: Barr*ck Ob*ma just turned water into wine!
If he turned it into scotch, then I would believe….
I was born in Camden. Still go back once a year. Don’t forget the taxes. Folks that live in these prestige towns see their high prop taxes as a sign of superiority. Keeps out the riff-raff and makes for blue ribbon schools. Truth is, most of these people don’t want lower taxes. Otherwise Camden would move in.
Grim,
The classism is a HUGE issue. Belmar looks down on Lake Como, and they both look down on Bradley, whilst Avaon looks down on them all. Nevertheless, there are no particular class differences between Manasquan, Spring Lake, Sea Girt, and Brielle. Likewise, Brick and Toms River could be melded into a single city, with a single city school district and police force.
Likewise the whole Allenhurst, Ocean, Loch Arbor, Deal area is ripe for consolidation. There are any number of municipalities that could be consolidated were there any will in Trenton to do so; however, with so many politicos and their family members, feathering their nests at multiple levels of government, I will not hold my breath.
We had a car engine or two hanging from a tree on the street where we lived.
Yet another classic NY Post Headline….
regarding Madoff….
http://www.nypost.com/seven/02052009/frontback.htm
Corzine practically ran on the idea. What a laugh
Barb – oh really? he did? I guess I forgot just like the rest of the electorate.
There are any number of municipalities that could be consolidated were there any will in Trenton to do so; however, with so many politicos and their family members, feathering their nests at multiple levels of government, I will not hold my breath.
That’s why I hope the state starts moving to BK. Force these lard a$$es out of their comfort zone. Elections can’t do it.
Here’s a contrary take on the municipal consolodation issue by Paul Mulshine at the Star Leger:
http://blog.nj.com/njv_paul_mulshine/2008/03/to_small_towns_the_state_polic.html
His thesis is that small town goverments are the most efficient local governments in the state.
I think he’s right.
Yet another classic NY Post Headline….
Wacko Jacko!
On topic of consolidation,
Local School Districts mean Better Education: Why county-wide school consolidations increase costs and special interest group control.
If they do county wide school district, the biggest casualty would be to high housing prices based on school district.
#6 Grim, I was thinking the same thing a couple of days ago. Have you seen all the fighting going on for the Nets arena in Brooklyn? No construction project gets rubber stamped. Unless of course, the stimulus package is filled with pork to every environmental group…
He may want to buy a remote car starter:
“Markopolos, who formerly worked for Rampart Investment Management and now has a team of four investigators, said he believes that the Russian mob and Latin American cartels were involved in the scheme because he traced Madoff money to offshore accounts.
“Dirty money always attracts the mob,” he said.
“I want to make this perfectly clear to all those Russian mobsters and Latin American drug cartels out there. I was acting on your behalf, trying to stop [Madoff] from zeroing out your accounts,” he added. “I’m the good guy here. Just like to make that clear.””
http://www.nypost.com/seven/02052009/news/regionalnews/how_sec_bozos_blew_it_153629.htm
Here is an interesting article on Toyota….
http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/05/news/international/toyota_assembly/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote
The BEST headline ever was:
Headless body found in topless bar
the great college hoax
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/0202/060_print.html
frequent topic of discussion in these waters …
“His thesis is that small town goverments are the most efficient local governments in the state.”
In my experience, living in a number of them, they tend to be corrupt and the need to eliminate the duplication of effort and services on a statewide basis more than outweighs any efficiencies one might find here or there.
It’s not about a certain size of govt being more effective than another. It’s about accountability. Those wasting the resources are not held accountable to it.
Small goverments fly under the radar and, in small towns, it is very easy to be “put on THE LIST’ because of something that happens in the PTA, or Little League, and be either targeted for harassment or ignored. The most visious politics happens in the smallest of municipalities.
Yikes. Great article.
#92 No doubt there is corruption everwhere, but if you consolodate towns don’t you also consolodate the corruption into more powerful units?
Most of the corruption I’ve seen in the small towns here in Sussex County takes the form of nepotism, although there will occassionaly be a court clerk or building department official skimming cash.
Replacing one Wall Street job with another job. No loss of net employment. Heckofa deal:
Down-on-their-luck Wall Street types should trade their pinstripes for swimsuits and become city lifeguards this summer, officials said yesterday as they launched a massive recruiting effort.
snip
http://www.nypost.com/seven/02052009/news/regionalnews/lifeguard_jobs_may_be_recession_lifesave_153648.htm
96.
ime smaller munis are run by a family or two for many generations. They literally see the town as theirs and theirs alone. The slightest questioning turns them into rabid dogs, chomping at their bones. People get intimidated and back down. In bigger cities, its easier to float info to the press anon, you are one of many, not one of a handful.
From MarketWatch:
Grim January for most retailers
As consumers continue to retrench, January retail sales numbers were coming in Thursday, and for the most part they weren’t pretty – so much so that that the world’s largest retailer decided to forego monthly sales reports altogether.
“Most of the corruption I’ve seen in the small towns here in Sussex County takes the form of nepotism”
Bingo! And, because of informal or unsophisticated “systems” — we are a small town after all — lots of corruption (whether stearing business to Mike’s brother, or skimming cash, etc.) just goes unnoticed by the monitors who are looking at the big fish.
100.
or uncle joey is the plumbing inspector and hey, whaddya know, his son took over the family plumbing biz a few yrs ago. Hello, contracts! And those applications flow through inspections smoother than bird poop.
oh, and son of joey is one of only 3 other contractors on the list for govt assisted rehab loans. Oh yeah.
Grim prev theread – Here’s another lower end Glen Ridge potential comp killer:
36 Madison – GSMLS 2629485
LP $399,000
Sold – 7/15/04 – $445,000
Tax Assessed – $451,300**
** The average ration for Glen Ridge for this tax year is 91.19, which means that the town is actually valuing this home as worth $494,900.
Grim – do you ahve detail from the 2004 listing? Was this home renovated prior to that sale? Or are the current owners looking at an even bigger loss?
Here’s another lower end Glen Ridge potential comp killer
Not applicable, disregard. Cheap house on the bad side of town. Not at all representative of Glen Ridge. I don’t even go into the poor wall color choices and tasteless decorating.
Stop being disingenuous.
BAC in freefall at $3.83.
I think that is the explosion.
No one is talking about this 15,000 free money the gov’t is giving away if you buy a house.
The new version doesn’t say that it has to be your first home. Move up? Vacation home?
Again I really think that a new couple who filed single can get 30K in free money to buy a house and 4.0% rates with their wedding money as a DP WILL buy something.
This is the last straw. If this doesn’t work you can say bye bye miss american pie.
The new version doesn’t say that it has to be your first home. Move up? Vacation home?
Final version will include income restrictions, primary home/owner occupied only, no second home/investment/vacation purchases, clawbacks, restrictions, etc.
TALL PAUL SEES THE WRITING ON THE WALL!!!
Volcker Chafes at Obama Panel Delay, Strains With Summers Rise
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aaLzJZKNcc6Y&refer=home
Wow, and it faster than I thought
Something big is about to happen.
Clot,
“US Gov’t moves to nationalize major banks on Sunday night”
perhaps the above headline might illustrate your thoughts.
Grim 107,
I’m just trying to think positive for once. I haven’t made any money since 2006.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28900376/
dont think this arson is related to real estate, but the #’s are staggering
104 – Grim – Not trying to be disingenuous. Stu and I have actually driven past this place. It is not too far from where many of our friends live. The house looks fine on the outside, but it is tiny and on a very small lot.
94–
Similar to an Amish shunning.
Clot –
Maybe this?
“Rogers Says Russia May Break Up, Mulls Bet Against Ruble”
Grim,
I don’t know about the other folks here but we have cut back retail spending, alot. It is only partially due to the current economic conditions but the effect on retailers is the same. It got to the point where Mrs. Shore and I were giving away nice cashmire sweaters, silk blouses and shirts, yadda, yadda, because we no longer had room for them. At this point in life, we have the suits and other clothes we need for work, etc. Except for the kids, who keep growing, we are in replacement mode and, frankly, we are no longer replacing 1 for 1. We came to realize that we each had way too many clothes and since we have both been the same size and weight for 30-odd years and never chased the latest fashion, we have all the clothes we need. In 1997, I bet we spent $5,000-10,000 on clothing. The same was true in prior years. Last year? I don’t know but it was not much. Likewise, I may replace a dozen shirts this year — maybe $1,200 — and some sox and underwear. Aside from a hat in Honduras, or a tee shirt in Dominica, or some such place, and a pair of shoes, maybe $300, I don’t forsee buying much in the way of clothing. The same for Mrs. Shore.
Similarly, life is so hectic, we have reduced dining out. We make better than most of what we get out and it is just more relaxing to eat at home.
I don’t profess to be “typical” but I hear similar stories from the music and sports moms and dads, and in conversations at work. People seem willing to live with what they have, at least for the moment.
I would not want to own retail stock right now.
this 15k tax “credit” … is it retroactive to jan 1, 2009?
If the tax break is refundable, each of my kids may need to buy a home.
Grim – Not trying to be disingenuous.
Was *trying* be funny.
Bank of America is under 4 bucks. The race to nationalization continues….
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=bac
Sorry!…..my extended commute today has put me more than a little bit off. I hate the PATH. Must get more coffee before my dreaded 4 hour meeting starts.
Sellers & R.E. Agents are living in fantasy land. It was & will be know as a bubble for year’s to come.
The buying spree at auctions in the next 1 – 2 years will be a once in a lifetime event. Just like the bubble. The majority of real estate will be sold without realtors & most homes will be empty. Auction, Auction we want the Auctions….
They should just use the “15K plan” money to buy bulldozers and just plow under the excess inventory of homes. Maybe remove the reusable materials first.
If the tax break is refundable, each of my kids may need to buy a home.
It’s definitively refundable. If the rates go down to 4% then I’ll the first one to put on the Boots.
I believe it to be my patriotic duty. Who’s with me?
Question:
Aside from RE, what purchases have folks here not made or scaled back on in the last year? My list is above.
15K home tax credit means squat. No one has any savings for a downpayment. 95% or more of the country is living check to check. Think the other 5%, who could have afforded a new house all along are going to run out and buy one for a 15K break? Who you kidding?
The longer the government intervenes with the natural forces of the market, the worse the result is going to be. If anything, they should take all of the money they plan to waste and put it into a fund to pay for healthcare, and unemployment benefits until the market corrects ITSELF. The more they dabble, the more you and your children will suffer and the longer it will take for the market to behave normally (if it ever gets a chance to).
Oh happy days!
Can any of the parents in the room sing the song?
The wheels on the bus
Are falling off
Falling off
Falling Off
The wheels on the bus
Are falling off
As the economy burns
The Commander in Chief
Lacks a clue
Lacks a clue
Lacks a clue
The Commander in Chief
Lacks a clue
As he can’t confirm his aides.
yadda yadda
From the Volker article above:
“Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) — Paul Volcker has grown increasingly frustrated over delays in setting up the economic advisory group President Barack Obama picked the former Federal Reserve chairman to lead, people familiar with the matter said.
Volcker, 81, blames Obama’s National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers for slowing down the effort to organize the panel of outside advisers, the people said. Summers isn’t regularly inviting Volcker to White House meetings and hasn’t shown interest in collaborating on policy or sharing potential solutions to the economic crisis, they said. “
#98 That was true at one time based on stories I’ve heard, but not so much now in my experience.
Give you an example, about 10 years ago I represented someone suing the town I live in over the purchase of needlessly expensive fire truck – very controversial as you can imagine.
Since then, I’ve been asked to run for Township Committee at least three times, twice by sitting members of the committee (I declined to run).
I wonder if they include bank stocks?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28895578
I haven’t heard about the 4% mortgage proposal in the stimulus bill in a few days. Is that still on the table?
A great poster
“Keep Calm and Carry On.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/7869458.stm
What allegiance does the Rubin/Summers/Geithner triumvirate have to Volker?
We’re not buying anything right now. Not a thing. Just gas and groceries.
15k tax credit means that home values are propped up artificially in the minds of sellers and agents so just try to get a deal or even get a house for the price thats right in 09. once jan 1 2010 hits, values continue to fall again, just in some cases, there are new owners holding the bag. Stu is also right, who can buy a home with the new lending regulations? some but not nearly as many as before.
“BAC in freefall at $3.83.”
Just another AIG, Freddie.
BTW English Beat will be the first band to play when Stone Pony re-opens. English Beat said Bruce or Southside or some other act known from the history of the Stone Pony may show up that day, but he is kicking it off and has the contract to prove it.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/04/AR2009020403720.html
Volcker warns “Do not overload fed”
http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/senate-approves-15000-tax-credit-for-home-buyers/1855
you can split the 15k over 2 yrs if you like.
im almost starting to believe that some of what JOhn says may be true – the government is going to continue to intervene whenever it can, so in some ways, making moves in anticipation of that isn’t a terrible idea.
this is not different than clot/stu/bc with skf and srs.
while i dont THINK the govt can continue to prop up home prices … it sure as heck seems like they’re going to exhaust every bullet in the gun. how much ammo do they have? they probably will be doing stimulus packages every year for hte next few …
http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/stories/2009/02/04/underemployed_georgia.html
These 8 million people don’t show up on any statistics as unemployed.
Slipknot is playing tonight at Madison Square Garden.
Take a look at their Album Cover,looks like a bunch on NJREREPORT posters out on the Compound/Farm in PA defending their veggies.
http://www.slipknot1.com/
I suppose Tall Paul is just realizing he’s not in on the con, he’s one of the conned.
“These 8 million people don’t show up on any statistics as unemployed.”
Make,
I’ve been screaming about this for the past 2 years. Our real unemployment rate is closer to 14-15%. U-6, BLS, check it out.
(30) Grim, RE: Readership
does anyone know of a good free site to track web traffic of specific URL’s?
“they probably will be doing stimulus packages every year for the next few …”
And then when the sh*t really hits the fan, the great depression might not have looked so great?
From Bloomberg:
U.S. December Factory Orders Fell More Than Forecast
Orders placed with U.S. factories fell in December for a fifth month, reflecting a pullback in business spending that will extend the recession.
Bookings declined 3.9 percent, more than forecast, after a revised 6.5 percent drop in November, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Other reports showed firings jumped at the end of January.
The lack of credit and mounting job losses are hurting sales in the U.S. and abroad, a sign businesses will cut back further in coming months to avoid a pileup of stocks. President Barack Obama’s economic stimulus package, being debated in the Senate, emphasizes infrastructure projects that may help factories.
“The chilly economic climate and dicey credit conditions have sunk demand for business equipment,” Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, said before the report. “This points to more cutbacks in production and factory jobs in the months ahead.”
Factory orders were forecast to fall 3.1 percent, after a previously reported 4.6 percent drop the prior month, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Projections ranged from declines of 1.5 percent to 6.8 percent.
Grim, can you provide me with addresses for these listings?
907325
2567552
905949
TIA
hype (46)-
I just think more and more people have gotten a peek behind the curtain.
Which means fewer and fewer people believe the propaganda and twaddle coming from WS and DC.
That should lead to a very explosive event.
re #146 – Clot no doubt the sheep have begun to complain, even “beloved” Congressmen are now worried.
//Quote
Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) has this very blunt message for bankers:
“People really hate you, and they’re starting to hate us because we’re hanging out with you. And you have to help us deal with that.”
Clot (146):
I have to agree with you. People are beginning to wake up. My parents are now telling their friends that we are terrible shape and we can go down much more from here.
Shore (94)-
Out in my neck of the woods, competing politicos regularly settle differences with fistfights, car vandalism, terroristic threats, attempts to run people over with SUVs, intimidation of children and restraining orders.
That was just last year.
If gubmint is involved- any size, large or small- corruption is involved.
Government cannot be anything other than corrupt. Its only impulse is to profit from corruption, extortion and racketeering.
CLot
You can see the steam starting leak from under the edge of the lid…..
Spain, could go down any day now. if any nation with major banking connections goes down the it will hit globally. This would be my guess as one of the prime possibilities.
The other good bet is california. They are broke and money has to be running out fast at the local municipal level. It is somewhat surprising that there isnt more unrest visible in CA. But once the local money runs out, and cops, firefighters, and schools stop getting paid, there is no holding back the unrest.
The US is going to try and auction 67 billion in bonds next week. Are you taking odds on an “anonymous” party buying then up? if the treasury cant even float its current debt without help from bergabe, then do you think they could bailout California?
One other point. is California ripe for a bank run? The government is starting to hand out IOU’s. How easy would it be for a crisis of confidence in the state government to occur and people run to grab the cash out of their accounts while they can. When do people get antsy enough about payroll or IOUS to start a run?
randy – sitemeter. you can add it to your site and it tracks stats. also google analytics.
you can get rough stats from Alexa, but it is never consistent.
From Bloomberg:
Freddie Mac Says 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Gained This Week
The average U.S. rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose this week, thwarting Federal Reserve efforts to cut borrowing costs, on investor concern the government will increase spending.
The fixed rate rose to 5.25 percent from 5.10 percent last week, Freddie Mac said in a report today. Last month the rate fell to 4.96 percent, the lowest in data that goes back to 1971, according to the McLean, Virginia-based mortgage buyer.
“Investors are growing a little bit nervous about all the Treasury bonds they’re going to be asked to buy to finance the government’s response to the financial crisis,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com.
AH/Clot,
There are land mines every which way you turn. Just a matter of time. There is no govt, in history , that has been able to alter a business cycles. Delay, yes. Alter, no. In conjunction with this, there has never been a govt able to print its way to prosperity. This won’t be the first.
Printing will ultimately lead to higher rates and inflation. Prosperity? Better chance that Corzine cuts 20% of the state payroll.
make (106)-
“No one is talking about this 15,000 free money the gov’t is giving away if you buy a house.”
That’s because it won’t make a damn bit of difference. Take the rates to 0%, give away bags of money. It ain’t gonna work.
Let the markets clear, let prices find their own level…THAT will work.
However, this will tap out the bank criminals who control DC (and the president), so it will never happen.
The end of days continues…
Grim,
91 in mod
Clot –
It is not fair to paint with such a broad brush.
After all, the reason we can communicate with each other is because of DARPA. Of course, there will be corruption. But for certain projects, the government is the only entity with the resources to execute that project.
And we get the government we deserve, if people were educated and proactive enough to keep the CongressCritters on a leash, we would not be in this situation.
OK. I’m not sure what kind of deal this is:
$15K tax CREDIT. You “delete” $15K from your INCOME TAX owed.
How many of us pay $15K in INCOME TAX? (Not talking medicare, SSI, etc)
Look at your pay stub. It’s (about~[someone check me here, pls]) $113.00 per every 1K earned.
You’d have to earn $132K PER YEAR to get the FULL CREDIT. And that’s WITHOUT TAKING ANY OTHER DEDUCTIONS.
Okay. You get to spread it over 2 years. That’s still $66K/year MINIMUM earnings, again, sans deductions.
And, to boot, you’re going to have sellers and re agents BLEETING how you’re going to pay $15K “less” that the sale price (people couldn’t figure out an ARM, what makes you think they’re gonna get thru this kind of math?!?!)
And then they’ll be pricing the houses “higher” like Toyota dealers were doing in 2006; they were pricing the Pruis 2-3K higher than sticker to “siphon” off the tax credit someone got for buying a hybrid…
Jeebus help us. Whose idea was this? Whose???
#151 kettle: On a happier note, did you mention some time back that you are familair with NC Outerbanks?
We are looking into going there this summer, I would expect to find some great deals.
Any informtion you might have, such as rental agent/realtor you have dealt with would be appreciated.
“The fixed rate rose to 5.25 percent from 5.10 percent last week”
Risk goes up, rates go up. All that extra borrowing onnew cars as part of the stimulus package should help things though. Nothing like more debt on a depreciating asset to improve one’s risk profile.
Victorian.
Well said.
I am amazed at how many people forget that we need some entity as large as the US gov’t for certain projects.
The state of NJ is NOT going to Mars anytime soon.
(Hell in a handbasket, yes. Mars, no.)
while i dont THINK the govt can continue to prop up home prices … it sure as heck seems like they’re going to exhaust every bullet in the gun. how much ammo do they have?
They have a few rounds left, but the collateral damage would be significant:
1) Nationalize Lending – Govt. takes the role of a quazi direct lender. A “Federal Housing Committee” administratively sets mortgage rates consistent with affordability and price stability goals.
2) Outright honest good old currency debasement/inflation.
#155 clot: Who cares about a 15k tax credit?
Prices are falling and will continue to fall.
HE (108)-
Tall Paul will never fly. Geithner, Summers, Bergabe, et al have no taste for hard truth, painful solutions, honest talk and the halting of the daylight bank robbery.
Lots of people are unemployed, however I know a lot of people who have a plain old run of the mill college degrees with a b average who have been dialing it and doing the min possible at work since graduation and rode the economic wave to six figures. Well these red headed step children are getting beaten like a purple headed bishop in this economy and unless they get a time travel machine to pump up their degrees, certifications, networking etc. they should have been doing the last ten years instead of playing the Wii and xbox all day they will be going down quicker than a ho in times square during fleet week. How is the magic one going to fix this? Those mid level banking bozos need their 150K jobs to survive with their monthly nut, these shovel ready 40K a year jobs the magic one is making up wont help a guy in BC with a 4k monthly mortgage. Better hope trophy wife laid off the bon bons and kept the figure cause she is going to have to start working the pole again at the bada bing if she does not want to end up on the streets.
Vic,
I would be on russia NOT breaking up. If you look at riussian history, the people of that nation have experienced much worse conditions then the average US citizen. They can tolerate worse conditions then the US can as they already have a basic shadow economy in place based on the barter system that developed during the coldwar for banned goods and that then flourished during the 98 collapse.
On top of that the people of russia are more experience with having to be self sufficient. Many families even in cities grow at least a small portion of their food in backyard gardens.
The point of this is that while i am willing to bet the ruble is toast, the country will not break up. Russia has a history of trudging through some very rough conditions and coming out on the other side more or less intact.
A good analogy is US vs Russian weapons. Russians weapons may not be the prettiest or most accurate, but the work in any conditions (i.e AK-47). US weapons are pretty, shiny, super accurate, and require a highly trained 10 man team to maintain and service otherwise they dont work. (i,e M-16 in the desert).
Going take my 15K credit and buy US made cars to get more credits which I can use to buy more homes.
February 5, 2009 at 11:09 am
#155 clot: Who cares about a 15k tax credit?
Prices are falling and will continue to fall.
Vic (157)-
Pretty soon, the only education I will need to call on is the manual for my grenade launcher.
We haven’t been buying anything lately. Even our grocery runs have been contanied. We’ve been drawing down our pantry.
But I am considering buying some living room furniture, as soon as I figure out whether my position is safe. I think prices could be good, and people desperate to sell. And I intend to keep the furniture for a long while.
Now might also be a good time to buy a car.
3b
About the Outerbanks. Mrs. Shore and I looked seriously at oceanfront there. Two observations: One, many owners think they are sitting onthe motherload of profit potential and are delusional in their pricing. Two, the Outerbanks have a HUGE erosion issue. The beaches are being eaten away by something like 5-15 feet per year. When one looks at property, some look to be real deals but the rapid loss of sand made us conclude that the current owners see the ocean approaching and are looking for patsies. We scratched-off the NC coast from our list because of this. As far as renting during the summer, it can be a nice deal — but we have concluded that we will not buy there.
Amen!
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/06/us/politics/06stimulus.html?hp
John, are you hiring? I know someone who is exactly opposite of what you described above.
spammy (159)-
Precisely. Put an artificial support under housing prices, thereby stopping the MBS bleeding.
Won’t work. Will make things worse.
The truck is nearing the edge of the cliff now. Congress has pushed pedal to the metal.
“The state of NJ is NOT going to Mars anytime soon.”
Why they don’t need to. They’ve been excessively taxing Uranus for years!
but we have concluded that we will not buy there.
The romance of oceanfront vacation home ownership is different than the reality. Easy to fall in love with the idea.
yip, huge supporter of both merging nj municipalities and increasing gas tax for mass transit…
washington twp mercer county just changed name to robbinsville… now only six left
“I am amazed at how many people forget that we need some entity as large as the US gov’t for certain projects.
The state of NJ is NOT going to Mars anytime soon.”
It would be great if we did go. Then we could declare Martian Law!
Volcker Chafes at Obama Panel Delay, Strains With Summers Rise
Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) — Paul Volcker has grown increasingly frustrated over delays in setting up the economic advisory group President Barack Obama picked the former Federal Reserve chairman to lead, people familiar with the matter said.
Volcker, 81, blames Obama’s National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers for slowing down the effort to organize the panel of outside advisers, the people said. Summers isn’t regularly inviting Volcker to White House meetings and hasn’t shown interest in collaborating on policy or sharing potential solutions to the economic crisis, they said.
Spam Vic
I agree you need the government for certain ventures, but you need a population that can control its own government.
When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.
Thomas Jefferson
Which side of that equation are we on? I say we institute a bailout program to arm every single citizen in the US with a handgun and a rifle.
This will help the economy as weapons are a huge industry for the US. The mandatory expert level training that every citizen will be required to have will be a huge boon for employment as well….
then the get on the right side of the equation
#171 shore: Just looking to rent for a week in the summer.
Do you have any realtor contacts?
3B
I am familiar with the wilmington area, not the outer banks…..
“How many of us pay $15K in INCOME TAX?”
Mrs. Shore and I would LOVE to pay $15K in federal taxes, or tripple, or quintupple that.
I don’t understand how these crazy mortgage numbers are picked. Surely they’ve got to be picking these out of a hat.
Is a 4.75% rate really that much more stimulative than a 5% rate?
The magic number was supposed to be 4.5%, which was never reached.
Now the magic number is 4%?
Why not 3%?
Why not 2.5%?
Why not 1%?
Every time a politician makes these broad, sweeping promises about lower mortgage rates, more buyers sit on the sidelines waiting for them to materialize.
Of course, they didn’t.
I know plenty of sideline buyers who are waiting for their 4.5% mortgage. They heard it promised, and now they think they are being cheated by banks and lenders.
They refuse to buy unless they get that rate.
Now we’re going to start talking about government guaranteed loans at 4%?
You’ll sideline every buyer.
My advice to buyers. Don’t buy in anticipation that these schemes will cause the market to rebound, they wont.
Besides, given the track record, it is likely that these “bullets” will become bigger and more aggressive in the future.
If you purchased based on the $7.5k interest free loan plan, you’d have missed out on this $15k in free money.
Who knows what next month will bring, maybe we’ll see a $25k tax credit and a 4% rate.
Yawn. 0% rates worked great for the auto industry, until they realized buyers disappeared once the promotion ended.
Only one direction to go, down.
BAC, BAC-H still death spiraling into the zombie zone.
Burn, burn, burn. Burn it all down.
3b,
We may have contact information still but I did not think highly of any of them. Perhaps someone else has had positive experiences?
I say we go from a chicken in every pot to a SIG in every pocket
Grim (184)-
On a brighter note, today I prevented someone from having to move from her condo into her car for at least another 30 days.
3b, we’ve used a couple of different agencies over the years for OBX rentals. Most of the larger agencies give you about the same level of service. [ Keys early if the house is cleaned and ready early, etc.]
I never did an owner rental…it’s too expensive and too far away to have to worry about getting a dirty house or a maintenance problem during the week.
Dunno if jb will permit links.
Go to your google and type OBX. You’ll see a dot org. On the page listing the geographic areas, click on the rentals link. Most of the larger agencies are listed there.
40 acres and a pit bull, AK-47, Claymores and electric fencing.
re: #151 kettle1 “It is somewhat surprising that there isn’t more unrest visible in CA”
wakey wakey eggs and bakey
I know someone who works for Law Enforcement in the San Diego area, over the last two years a very large amount of common folk who are struggling to make ends meet like housewives and grandparents are now dealing. The Police aren’t even bothering to go after them because there are just too many, and California is very pro use, that may explain why the lefties over there can barely organize a protest.
you need to decide if you want to be in the thick of things, or if you want to be a little farther away, with more peace. It’s like the difference between being in Ship Bottom vs. Barnegat Light.
question for the blog hive mind:
California is handing out IOU’s to pay bills. Are there any big banks that depend on income from california to cover its costs? Are any big banks bleeding out due to California being bankrupt?
Volcker Financial Regulation Testimony Sketches Broad Changes
“Every time a politician makes these broad, sweeping promises about lower mortgage rates, more buyers sit on the sidelines waiting for them to materialize”
Grim,
Someone once said something to the effect (Oscar Wild, perhaps) that it is more important to be seen as upstanding than to actually be so. With respect to congress, the members (oddly appropriate name) need to be perceived as acting on the public’s behalf, even if their actions are, in the end, counterproductive — hence the way TARP was rammed through.
The ONLY way to stop this is to eliminate pensions for elected officials.
3182 kettle Is that a beach area?
Clot 156,
I know what needs to be done and you’re right.
But if you look at 4% rates and 15K credit a home that’s 30% off 2006 is very enticing.
It might not sprawl a V shape recovery but it sure will help for =m a foundation of a bottom.
If can get an 15K incentive to borrow at 4% with the massive inflation just around the corner then it’s hard to form an argument to sit on the sidelines.
#189 Thanks Pat. Do you recommend the trip, it’s a schlep, but hear it is beautiful.
Sean,
the immigrant issue is a huge powder keg in California. One the money really runs out the pre-existing tensions will ignite and then the post consumption products will orthogonally intersect the rotary cooling device.
just waiting for the calls of “why are paying illegals getting aid when you cant pay me”. The accuracy of any such statement will be irrelevant.
#197 If can get an 15K incentive to borrow at 4%
Why it is a tax credit?
Clot (169)-
“Pretty soon, the only education I will need to call on is the manual for my grenade launcher.”
– Are you making copies? :)
3b
VRBO worked wonders for me a few years ago on the outer banks (Avon). We got a great place right on the water for what I thought was a killer price. Lots and lots of options and since it is owner advertised the prices were much lower than looking at a realtor’s website. I have used VRBO for every vacation we have taken the past 4 years. Worked great in Kiawah, SC and Hilton Head as well.
3b
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&q=Wrightsville+Beach,+North+Carolina&sll=34.245298,-77.829208&sspn=0.245772,0.33165&ie=UTF8&cd=1&geocode=FSQUCgIdngFd-w&split=0&ll=34.318487,-77.706299&spn=0.463894,0.6633&z=10
shore says… Brick and Toms River could be melded into a single city, with a single city school district and police force…
That would be one huge city, toms river alone has 90,000 people, 20 sq miles and a regional school district with 4 high schools… the entity known as Dover Twp has already been merged to form Toms River three years ago, now the 7th largest municipality in the state. can you tell where i grew up?
Why it is a tax credit?
Does one pay taxes on unemployment benefits?
There goes another 15% of American potential buyers.
All bread and circuses.
How much more of your money do you want them to waste? Is it really a tax credit if YOU are funding it?
By this time, the Fed has probably spent close to a hundred billion dollars on trying to manipulate mortgage rates with absolutely nothing to show for it.
While mortgage rates dropped sharply on the program announcement, rates have moved steadily upwards since they began making purchases.
Approximately $100,000,000,000.00 worth of MBS purchased to date. How much money will it take to really move this market? Given the market behavior during the purchase period, it seems like considerably more than $500 billion will be required to move this market.
make (197)-
In the history of deflationary credit crises, it has been proved that virtually nothing can break the deflationary mindset.
This 15K tax credit- and the false promise of a mortgage rate that can’t be delivered- won’t be the equivalent of a tiny drop of water.
You can’t GIVE a house to a guy who thinks he could lose his job any day, either.
I recommend it at least once.
You’ll come back with a new perspective on the Jersey Shore.
If you go, go early. Pack up any kids the night before, and then put them in the car at 3 am and hit the highway. Don’t do the whole five bags of groceries in the trunk thing. Just worry about getting your butts down there before the line of traffic starts. Go the first week of August.
My real opinion is that you’re going down there to get something different than NJ, so you should stay up in Whalehead or remote. Go all out and get oceanfront, if you can afford it.
Definitely go.
3b,
have used VRBO before as well, was reasonably satisfied
I think Brick and Wall should merge. But I can’t think of a clever name for the new entity.
197 – the 15k credit doesnt change any of the fundamentals as far as I can see. why wouldnt prices continue to slide after the credit is gone? and who’s to say sellers (those who don’t really really have to sell) won’t hold out for more money to get a piece of the credit?
15K is a credit, even if you pay zero income tax you will recieve a check for 15K if you file a return, just like the 1,000 child tax credit, earn one dollar a year and have 7 kids you get a refund of 7K.
I would love to pay 15K a year in Fed income taxes!!!
The only thing that will move the mortgage or housing markets will be the re-introduction of transparency.
Funny. Just doing that won’t cost the taxpayer a penny.
make
from yesterday:
Deflation doesn’t give a damn if you are a robber baron or a union worker. It doesn’t give a damn whether you eat or starve. Deflation is relentless and will not stop until the market as a whole finally rediscovers the correct prices for everything. And foolish attempts to prop up prices will do nothing except prolong the pain.
suggesting you can halt deflation is no different then believing that you will end up with different results then King Canute’s wet feet
“OK. I’m not sure what kind of deal this is:”
Spam,
Bingo, The devil is in the details, Great headlines, little substance.
3b,
Where have you been?
I go to the Duck area often. I use Twiddy. Highly recommend.
Only problm there is the county line.
BC, I was also going to toss out Twiddy, but didn’t want to push it.
#213 – clot, there’s been tons of transparency in NJ developing over the past 3 years, it just needs to be taught to the buyers.
Anyone easily see/look up the sales & the assments. Can even see the signed docs on some county websites & know the down payment or existing loans to estimate leverage against that property.
Sell buyers not sellers.
Thanks Mike/Kettle/ Pat
John,
I suspect there are a fair number of people here who would LOVE to pay $15k in taxes each quarter. We would sign-up for that deal faster than Chifi and his 3-year Colts Neck lease.
OK OK I see your point.
Sales do not go to Zero. In 2009 we will probably see around (just an example) one million sales. If this Tax credit raises the number to 1.2 million it will make a big difference and prolong this agony. Maybe next year they continue this and all of the sudden we have 2002 all over again when the market and the psychology turns.
It could prolong housing correction and strengthen this house of cards for another decade.
remember owing dollars could make you look like a genious if you believe in massive inflation around the corner.
think (219)-
I wasn’t referring to opaqueness in the mechanics of the transaction.
I was referring to gubmint manipulation of tax credits and rate expectations in order to create an artificial price floor, save MBS and prevent markets from clearing.
Then owning shiny will make you look like f*^king Einstein.
“…remember owing dollars could make you look like a genious if you believe in massive inflation around the corner.”
Stu-
FXP sure looks tasty. Pushing back toward that magic $30 level.
May have to break off another piece.
15K a quarter tax, is that Fed only? If Fed only that is some good change. This week since stocks are low I know lots of people instead of selling restricted stock upon vesting to cover tax they are paying the tax out of pocket, fed, state, fica and medicare is an ugly number when you have to put your john hancock on a check.
NJ should dump the mansion tax if they had half a brain. Increasing sales on the high end is more important if you want to inflate average selling prices
#216 BC Bob: I have been incredibly busy, lots going on.
Then owning shiny will make you look like f*^king Einstein.
I love it. Cheers.
#222 It could prolong housing correction and strengthen this house of cards for another decade.
Not in the miffle of a brutal (eorse than we have seen in our lifetimes recession).
It will not make one bit of difference.
Clot:
I just mentioned the same thing to a friend of mine about an hour ago.
“does anyone know of a good free site to track web traffic of specific URL’s?”
give google trends a shot
SAS
What is Twiddy and VRBO?
Ever notice when the Dow etc nears 8000 the Gov’t starts leaking bailout plan details, and once there’s a bounce the plans dissapear?
“What is Twiddy and VRBO?”
3b,
Search Twiddy on google. Rentals for OBX.
Down goes Fortunoff.
From Bloomberg:
Fortunoff, Luxury Goods Seller, Files for Bankruptcy
Fortunoff Holdings LLC, the luxury goods chain that closed its flagship Manhattan store last month, filed for bankruptcy a year after it last sought Chapter 11 court protection.
The petition for Chapter 11 filed today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan listed more than $100 million in assets and liabilities. NRDC Equity Partners LLC bought Uniondale, New York- based Fortunoff last March for $110 million, including $80 million in cash.
Hovnanian CEO Gets Performance Bonus as Company Value Drops 76%
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ad5a0nJfglXQ&refer=home
Ara does his best impression of a WS banker.
“Q&A: Madoff talks trading-May 29, 2000”
http://tinyurl.com/bfzdbg
“Ara’s salary did not go up a single penny in 2008 and the $7.3 million in stock options is worthless. All the options he’s received are underwater.”
From the bloomberg article…
Guess they don’t know the meaning of incentive compensation…
Are 401k’s not considered as savings?I hear alot about nobody has savings.I think the fed should suspend the 10% penalty to the person after unemployment
is exhausted or to buy a first home or medical needs.
“Hovnanian CEO Gets Performance Bonus as Company Value Drops 76%”
Let’s go to Dandy Don in the booth. Turn out the lights…
#255 BC Bob: Did yous aty in Duck? It looks pretty nice.
Do you think it is worth the schlep from NJ?
“Are 401k’s not considered as savings?”
Not after they turn into 201k’s.
make
“remember owing dollars could make you look like a genius if you believe in massive inflation around the corner”
The problem is the same as the stock market. Can you stay solvent long enough to wait out deflation????? deflation usually last longer then anyone expects. Your plan works great if you have very deep pockets. But what about someone who doesnt have a few mil in the bank?
Madoff’s cat bond, event-arbitrage and hedge-fund frauds…
to whom did they get sold too?
SAS
3b [240],
Yes, either Duck or the surrounding villages. Always, the last week of Aug or later. If you have any specific questions, get my email from JB.
Americans have “slave mentality”
Really? What do you guys think?
This could be the first time a good smell has ever come from New Jersey.
http://www.nypost.com/seven/02052009/news/regionalnews/source_of_syrup_smell_revealed_153688.htm
SAS,
talking about black economies:
spoke to a friend of mine last night who has a business in colombia. he has decided to hire a local cartel for security. They are more reliable then the local authorities and actually honor business deals…..
thought that was funny.
sync (245)-
Concur wholeheartedly.
Only bone of contention would be to make the point that to really be a slave, a person has to actually be aware of his enslavement.
Most US sheeple just exist in a narcoticized, cathode ray-induced stupor.
And so it begins!
Counties threaten tax revolt against California budget
California counties are throwing another wrinkle into the state’s cash crisis as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders try to agree on a way to erase a $42 billion budget deficit.
Several counties are considering some form of tax revolt—either filing lawsuits or delaying tax payments to the state—because the governor has proposed withholding payments to them for as long as seven months in a move to preserve cash.
http://www.mercurynews.com/news/ci_11626485?nclick_check=1
From CNBC-
The Obama administration has decided on a new package of aid measures for the financial services industry, including a bad bank component, and is expected to announce them next Monday, according to a source familiar with the planning.
The plan will be “smaller” than originally expected, said the industry source, and centered around government guarantees and insurance of troubled assets, what’s called a “ring fence” concept.
“Eveybody seems to like that,” said the source. “There’s a lot of internal conflict about whether this [the bad bank] makes sense … they realize they have to do something with the bad bank.”
The latest round of discussions also appear to have addressed the most controversial aspect of the big bank concept: Pricing.
Under the emerging plan, the government will buy toxic assets below the banks “carrying value,” which is basically market value, but not at fire sale levels, the source said.
Negotiators hope that concept would placate both taxpayer and Congressional concerns about the government over-paying for the assets. But, the source noted, it could “trigger an accounting problem for the banks,” presumably because the institutions will have to report a loss on the transactions.
The Obama administration is now working on ideas to address that, which might entail, a temporary suspension of certain accounting rules.
The current plan is expected to be smaller in that it will be paid for out of the remaining money in the original TARP plan, which is about $350 billion. Some of that money, however, will remain earmarked for home foreclosure relief.
The latest developments come as Congressional support for the bad bank concept and additional financial support for the financial sector is fading.
In a news conference Wednesday afternoon, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D.-Calif.) said she was “not so sure”that another bailout request from the Obama administration is inevitable.
Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY), a senior member of the Senate Banking Committee, Tuesday joined the bad-bank skeptics, telling CNBC the approach would be “hugely expensive” and added he prefers government guarantees of such assets.
The ring fence concept has already been used with Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Bank of America(NYSE: BAC).
Congressional Democrats have shared with the new administration their anger and disappointment over former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s administration of the TARP program, which was seen as too generous to and too lenient on Wall Street firms.
They’ve also made it clear that they want significant government funding to aid consumer borrowers, small business and the housing industry, as well as tighter rules on executive pay for firms participating in the TARP. Pres. Obama unveiled those rules Wednesday.
Thus far, the bulk of the government’s aid under the TARP program has been through a capital-for-equity swap. The so-called capital injection method was adopted at the urging of Congress late last September and then wound up replacing Paulson’s original, primary tool of a government auction to buy the troubled assets.
The capital injection program, however, is not expected to be a major part of the new aid package, according to the source.
The source said the Obama administration is keenly aware of all this and is proceeding at a cautious pace.
Details are expected to be announced Monday. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will brief the respective houses of Congress on a variety of new measures meant to ease the credit crunch.
http://www.mercurynews.com/news/ci_11626485?nclick_check=1
“We don’t put these proposals forward lightly,” Palmer said. “We will move heaven and earth to ensure that bond holders will be paid on schedule.”
will defaulting on bonds be the torpedo that sinks California?
———————————
Clot Sync,
TPTB have advanced leaps and bounds in how to enslave people. why use chains when you can get people to willing enter indentured servitude
Don’t worry, Bailout #16 is sure to work.
Pay no attention to the prior 15 failed attempts, this one is sure to work.
Trust me, I’m from the Government and I’m here to help.
grim says:
February 5, 2009 at 10:00 am
The new version doesn’t say that it has to be your first home. Move up? Vacation home?
Final version will include income restrictions, primary home/owner occupied only, no second home/investment/vacation purchases, clawbacks, restrictions, etc.
whar are the income restrictions? link?
Clot
Negotiators hope that concept would placate both taxpayer and Congressional concerns about the government over-paying for the assets. But, the source noted, it could “trigger an accounting problem for the banks,” presumably because the institutions will have to report a loss on the transactions.
losses on a dead “asset” are a problem????
Can we F’ing hang some of the G Damn Mother F’rs already for treason!?!?!
Is the general public really so F’ing stupid!?!?!? (dont answer i already know)
$hit, at this point i might as well go buy everything i always wanted then tell the bill collectors that ” Sorry i would love to pay you, but i appear to have had a problem valuing my assets, talk to uncle bergabe, he’ll cover me”!
STU<
I might be ready to join you in CR…
Can we have a pig roast? tie paulson and all his IB CEO buddies to a spit with a little BBQ sauce, all on the steps of the capital building?
Can anyone provide an address / history on: GMLS# 2638248?
Thanks in Advance.
Stu says:
February 5, 2009 at 10:41 am
“they probably will be doing stimulus packages every year for the next few …”
And then when the sh*t really hits the fan, the great depression might not have looked so great?
no, stu … the plan is to stimulus they’re way out of this! it’s going to work!
gary,
can i borrow some x@nax?
Latest Rumor:
Totally Unfounded Rumor Of The Day: Mark-To-Market Marked To Market
http://dealbreaker.com/2009/02/totally-unfounded-rumor-of-the-2.php
Like it would make a difference
grenade launcher sounds nice clot. i’d like one.
advice?
a temporary suspension of certain accounting rules.
Awesome.
yikes
get in line….
we need grenade launcher training classes
sl
Shore Guy says:
February 5, 2009 at 11:23 am
“How many of us pay $15K in INCOME TAX?”
Mrs. Shore and I would LOVE to pay $15K in federal taxes, or tripple, or quintupple that.
*waves hands frantically while silently weeping over a bill that may be 4x that*
Anyone got any info on MLS ID #903257
Its 32 Revere Rd Piscataway, NJ
Thanks!
#244 BC Bob: why the last week of August? If I book, I am thinking the later I wait the better the deal I get.
Of course I run the risk of being clossed out (however, I don’t see that as an issue this year)
Just from quickly looking on VRBO, there is lots still available, of course it is only February.
re getting rid of mark to market:
Ok so you show me what appears to be a beautiful woman. She lifts her skirt and I see she is actually a man. You now tell me she is a beautiful woman. I am supposed to believe you?
hey you can always improvise a grenade launched with some PVC piping and a can of hairspray!
Lots of ideas thrown around here on what the tax credit proposal is about, here is my take:
The proposal is – 10% tax credit on purchase price of primary owner occupied residence up to a price of $150,000 hence the $15,000 dollar figure.
Second the credit is not a grant of that amount to the buyer but a credit allowing the deduction of said credit from your income.
Thus your taxable income is say 75,000 without the credit and becomes 60,000 taxable income if you avail yourself to it.
To my reading it is not a cash grant give away.
Any thoughts?
#92
notice the people who are most f’d by ed debt are lawyers. law is not a lucrative profession anymore except for maybe the top 5%
#98
“Down-on-their-luck Wall Street types should trade their pinstripes for swimsuits and become city lifeguards this summer”
fat, pasty, hostile lifeguards should keep the pools vacant
If they really want to make a difference, they will provide funding to install PV cells on the roof of every house in the United States, build 5-10 million power-generating wind mills, and give folks vouchers that can only be used to buy plug-in hybrid cars (thus offsetting the extra cost of the vehicles compared to standard vehicles). At least this would have a long-term positive effect on the environment, oil imports, etc.
What congress is doing is not going to change a thing longetem, except pull us deeper into the quicksand.
264 in mod. thanks for the help.
We have a county-wide school system and the schools still differ according to the relative wealth of the parents. Each school receives comparable funding by the county but there are still disparities. Wealthier parents can contribute more to their school at the Fall Festival or Spring Fling fundraisers, they buy more Sally Foster wrapping paper and they have more time to volunteer their time and skills. I don’t know how the PTA budgets are in NJ, but I was stunned to see that our local elementary school PTA has a $60,000 budget and every cent after expenses goes right back into the school. And we are not in the ritzy part of the county.
#126
“15K home tax credit means squat. No one has any savings for a downpayment. 95% or more of the country is living check to check. Think the other 5%, who could have afforded a new house all along are going to run out and buy one for a 15K break? Who you kidding?”
totally agree, esp around here. if you are looking at a 500k house, that is a 3% discount. meaningless
About the tax issue, and I think this points to a big part of the problem in this nation, aside from those of us who are self employed, most people do not have to think I mean REALLY THINK, about how much they pay in taxes. We need to set aside money from every check we receive to cover taxes. We need to mail the USG a check for estimated taxes every quarter. Because of the way our money comes in, we need to file an extension or two and then file our final tax form. When all is said and done, we are doing something with taxes just about every week. With respect to filing paperwork withthe feds, we do it at least 6 times a year, often more. Taxes are in front of our faces all the time.
Now I know that pay stubs show taxes and whatnot but it is not the same. I used to be a wage slave too and it is just amazing how much more in one’s face the tax issue is when one is self employed.
Because taxes are hidden in the open for most folks, most people just kind of go along without thinking about them. The same holds true for what congress, the state legislature, and local governments do. We asa society just do not pay attention.
#126, #273
The idea here is that 3% is nothing for a 500K house. However, 15K is 10% for a 150K house and will free the previous owner to to buy the higher priced house. The well known butterfly effect. Clever, eh?
Two legal comments:
Most of the lawyers in that top 5% work really, really hard.
Ruth Bader Ginsburg had surgery today for pancreatic cancer.
“However, 15K is 10% for a 150K house and will free the previous owner to to buy the higher priced house”
The RE agents in Emporia, Kansas must be champing at the bit.
“The ring fence concept has already been used with Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Bank of America(NYSE: BAC).”
Clot [250],
LMAO. How’s that ring concept working?
To answer my own question on BAC from yesterday, the significance of the share price from Marketwatch today:
Bank of America falls sharply, drops under $4 a share
By MarketWatch
Last update: 11:22 a.m. EST Feb. 5, 2009
Comments: 86
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Bank of America shares fell sharply Thursday as investors continued selling off shares after the stock fell below $5 a share just a day earlier.
Bank of America shares dip below $4 Thursday morning, while Visa and MasterCard head higher. MarketWatch’s Greg Morcroft reports. (Feb. 6)
Already aggressive selling accelerated as many mutual funds have charters that prohibit them from owning shares that trade under $5.
#277 Incredibly simplistic, not realistic reasoning, but suit yourself.
277 – as long as the seller gives the buyer the same discount off the asking price that they would have gotten before the credit.
“why the last week of August?”
3b,
Last week of August or later. The schools are back in action, south, at that time.
doh!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ad5a0nJfglXQ&refer=us
“However, 15K is 10% for a 150K house”
…and where is that 150K house in NNJ?
Oy, vey! The things people do to make a buck in a recession.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29017926
Dominatrix Work Forces Recession to Its Knees
Posted By: Cindy Perman
Topics:Employment | Economy (U.S.) | Wall Street
When the going gets tough, the tough get out their whips.
Are you listening to me?
(Whapisssh!)
One of the kinkier trends to emerge from this recession is that many professional women are turning to dominatrix work to supplement their incomes, Tracy Quan reports in her “Kinkonomics” blog on the Daily Beast.
Quan interviews some of the women who’ve turned to fetish work, including “Linda,” who works as a editor by day and a dominatrix at night.
And “Jessica,” who works as a web-site designer three days a week, and sees a few fetish clients a week.
Before you go passing judgment, check it out: You can make anywhere from $80 to $1,000 an hour in the dungeon.
snip
…and where is that 150K house in NNJ?
Plainfield or Phillipsburg. take your pick
BC Bob says:
February 5, 2009 at 1:23 pm
“The ring fence concept has already been used with Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Bank of America(NYSE: BAC).”
Clot [250],
LMAO. How’s that ring concept working?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRlj5vjp3Ko&feature=related
#277
“The idea here is that 3% is nothing for a 500K house. However, 15K is 10% for a 150K house and will free the previous owner to to buy the higher priced house. The well known butterfly effect. Clever, eh?”
understood, but how does this help the most bubbly areas where there is a huge inventory overhang? sure it might stir transactions of $150k homes in Kansas, but this isn’t really where the problem is
am i crazy for liking donnie deutsch?
hes taking on these cnbc douchebags and destroying them
Don’t get me wrong. I am not sure what the effect will be. I was just kidding. I just explain that this is how the gov hopes it to be,
“The idea here is that 3% is nothing for a 500K house. However, 15K is 10% for a 150K house and will free the previous owner to to buy the higher priced house. The well known butterfly effect. Clever, eh?”
“…and where is that 150K house in NNJ”
A tree house in Millville — easy commute to NY I hear.
#278
“Most of the lawyers in that top 5% work really, really hard.”
agree, but problem is that almost everyone is in massive debt when they come out of school and only about 5% ever have a shot at making enough money to pay off that debt and live comfortably. Serious here– if you do not graduate in the top half of your class from one the top 15 schools, you will probably be f’d for life by education debt
Don’t know if this has been posted. Don’t like the hangover? Open up the bar again.
“Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) — Fannie Mae, the mortgage-finance company under U.S. government control, will loosen rules for homeowners seeking to lower their loan payments by refinancing.”
“Fannie Mae will drop some credit-score requirements, reduce income-documentation standards and waive the need for appraisals in some cases, according to a notice yesterday to lenders posted on the Washington-based company’s Web site. The changes apply to loans that the company owns or guarantees.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTu9HA5cZgQ4&refer=home
Your damn mouth is about as bad as Dr. Foulmouth herself (Still Looking). Clean it up dammit. I don’t want to come here reading your foul mouthed tirades. You’ve posted every radical prediction you could lay your hands on trying to scare the hell out of eveyone, but that’s not enough, you want to cuss up a damn storm now.
Clot
Negotiators hope that concept would placate both taxpayer and Congressional concerns about the government over-paying for the assets. But, the source noted, it could “trigger an accounting problem for the banks,” presumably because the institutions will have to report a loss on the transactions.
losses on a dead “asset” are a problem????
Can we F’ing hang some of the G Damn Mother F’rs already for treason!?!?!
Is the general public really so F’ing stupid!?!?!? (dont answer i already know)
$hit, at this point i might as well go buy everything i always wanted then tell the bill collectors that ” Sorry i would love to pay you, but i appear to have had a problem valuing my assets, talk to uncle bergabe, he’ll cover me”!
STU<
I might be ready to join you in CR…
15K round here will only help coop sales in the bronx, Newark, SI and Queens. Other than that it ain’t nothing but some pork to help the masses swallow the fact that deadbeats took out subprime loans they can’t afford to pay back and banks are going under and the folks who bought houses they can afford are going to pay for all of that need some honey to go with their medicine.
Butterfly Effect? C’mon.
Plankton Theory (courtesy of Bill Gross) is probably more appropriate.
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/FF/2007/GCBF-+March+2007.htm
“top half of your class from one the top 15 schools”
Top half? It is likely smaller than that, and the window is even smaller than people think. If one is not a star in the first semester and does not end up at upper reaches of the class after the first year, JUST TRY getting into a well-regarded summer program.
[78] chifi
If it turned into scotch, I would vote for him
Last update: 1:43 p.m. EST Feb. 5, 2009
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – A mortgage mitigation proposal introduced by Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairwoman Sheila Bair is receiving support from Treasury, according to a key lawmaker on Thursday. “The FDIC proposal has gained some traction with the Treasury. Its stock as a proposal has clearly gained,” said Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, D-Conn. to reporters after a hearing. Bair has proposed using $24.4 billion of the remaining funds in a $700 billion bank bailout program in a loss-sharing program with mortgage servicers to help troubled homeowners avoid foreclosure. Bair said her program could help avert 1.5 million foreclosures. The Treasury department has agreed to spend between $50 billion and $100 billion of the remaining bailout funds for mortgage mitigation, according to House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank, D-Mass.
Unless you think Barney Frank passing gas in a DC meeting can cause a housing boom in NJ to start.
#284 Bc Bob: Good point, forgot about that.
Any cocnerns with paying the owner directly rather than going through a realtor?
My better halfs concern.
Skep,
I know some two lawyer families where they came out of school with $250,000 in school debt alone. The problem is that when they hear the starting salaries and then learn what partners make, so many people start to spend like a partner on an associate’s salary. It gets ugly, very ugly, in a very short period.
BC #301,
This is making me want to stop making payments on all my properties and see what’s what.
Dr. Foulmouth ????
Is that like Dr. Strangelove?
Yes when you deal direct with the owner there is a chance he is a crook, better to deal with a realtor and know he is a crook.
Any cocnerns with paying the owner directly rather than going through a realtor?
#299
“Top half? It is likely smaller than that, and the window is even smaller than people think. If one is not a star in the first semester and does not end up at upper reaches of the class after the first year, JUST TRY getting into a well-regarded summer program.”
It’s not quite that bad. If you graduated in the top half at Harvard (at least, until last year), you could basically get a job at a top 5 firm no problem. What you’re saying is definitely applicable outside of the very top tier schools though
No, all you and your damn sniveling dog want to see is everyone crying and writhing in pain. There’s been enough damn pain. This economy has damn near been like waterboard torture for real estate investors of all stripes. My ass is in a damn sling and I can’t hang on much longer. Real estate investors need help and we need it right now, dammit.
From Clotpoll:
make (106)-
“No one is talking about this 15,000 free money the gov’t is giving away if you buy a house.”
That’s because it won’t make a damn bit of difference. Take the rates to 0%, give away bags of money. It ain’t gonna work.
Let the markets clear, let prices find their own level…THAT will work.
However, this will tap out the bank criminals who control DC (and the president), so it will never happen.
The end of days continues…
Passing gas is how Barney gets his condoms out after a good porking.
grim says:
February 5, 2009 at 1:45 pm
Unless you think Barney Frank passing gas in a DC meeting can cause a housing boom in NJ to start.
“all you and your damn sniveling dog want to see is everyone crying and writhing in pain.”
Sounds like the women trying to make a buck beating people.
#304
$250k for two new lawyers is on the low side these days. A yearly budget for private law school right now is about $70k. So if you have to borrow the full load, you are looking at probably $200k right now each, and this doesn’t include debt you might have from undergrad.
Agree that a big mistake that people often make is to start living like they are rich as soon as you graduate. Even if you had no debt you would not be rich in a place like NYC, Boston, San Fran, etc on a jr associate salary. But throw $200k+ plus debt into the equation (much of which is at a variable interest rate) and you not only are not rich, you are not even middle class. Smart people continue to live like students as long as possible
[210] stu
“I think Brick and Wall should merge. But I can’t think of a clever name for the new entity.”
I got it. Uh, no I don’t. Damn, right on the tip of my tongue.
(seriously, that got a LOL out of me)
You know what is getting tough, asset allocation. Assets should be divided between, cash, CDs, Commodities, bonds, Equities and Real Estate. Allocation is key. All of us due to the drops in RE and Equities and certain types of bonds need to reload. Cash, CDs, Certain Commodities and High Quality bonds are too much of our allocation. The question is putting new cash or selling T-Bills, to put to work to buy stock, high yield bonds and beaten down commodities requires covering one’s nose and diving into the stinky assets to remain diversified, other wise when the T-bill bubble blows we will just lose it all anyhow. That said I bought some stock this week, as nervous as a virgin on her first night working in a whore house. But you gotta do it, RE 101 is right in the regards someone has to decide when assets are attractive and not be scared to lose money short term when it becoms apparant money is to be made long term.
#314
What makes you think that stock are undervalued (short or long term)?
reinvestor, your ass is in a sling? told you not to play with barney frank.
Stocks as a percentage of GDP is around 75%. Stocks are trading at historical low levels compare to PE. Stocks are trading at low levels versus forward looking PEs. I am not saying we are at bottom, that does not matter. When you are in the belly of a long recession that is when dollar cost averaging in is your friend. The trouble is people dollar cost average in during peak periods as it feels nice to have immediate gratification. Also people also think they have the magic ability to sit on the sidelines and jump in when the time is right, which is impossible. I am too much of a bull, BC is too much of a bear, somewhere in the middle blue chip companies should be slowly added to your investments during each and every recession in order to reach the magic seven figure retirement account.
has anyone seen O smile since he took office?
he’s using words like ‘catastrophe’ and phrases like ‘screwed up.’
wonder if he had any clue how much of a sh*tshow he stepped into.
Did housing’s spring season begin the monday after the super bowl? how are things working out so far?
#314 john:someone has to decide when assets are attractive.
Well they are not attractive yet, simple as that. They become attractive when we hit bottom,and there are preliminary signs of a recovery, even if weak.
Those preliminary signs are nowhere in sight and won’t be for a long time;somebody must have dug up the mustard seeds.
so is it even worth it to throw out some 20%+ off bids these days?
tard (309)-
Your political heroes say waterboarding isn’t torture.
So loosen up, and enjoy your waterboarding. Don’t think of it as “torture”…think of it as a “stress position”.
“This economy has damn near been like waterboard torture for real estate investors of all stripes.”
” Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., New Jersey’s largest homebuilder, gave its chief executive officer a 20 percent pay raise in 2008, including an almost $1 million performance bonus, as the company lost three-quarters of its market value.”
Did Louis Carroll come up with this Through the Looking Glass compensation plan?
tard (309)-
“This economy has damn near been like waterboard torture for real estate investors of all stripes.”
BTW, Tard, I’m a RE investor, and I’m not striped. What are you, a f*^king zebra?
Anyone hear if patient is still in NJ?
yikes (318)-
Wake me up on Memorial Day.
“Did housing’s spring season begin the monday after the super bowl? how are things working out so far?”
Stocks as a percentage of GDP is around 75%. Stocks are trading at historical low levels compare to PE. Stocks are trading at low levels versus forward looking PEs.
John,
someone pointed this out to me several days ago, but it’s actually 75% of GNP. I’ll tell you the same thing. Look at the two inputs. Yes stocks have dropped, but look at GNP. It has been rising, even in this recession. The numbers I found I think went out to July-08. GNP has historically been a lagging economic indicator. I bet there is some lag before GNP shows contraction from the recession, therefore this 75% number will change. On top of that look at the low points for Stock market value/GNP figure. It is well below 50% during most of the severe recessions, historically. I think a similar situation applies here. Good luck.
#320 skeptic: It sure is, all they can say is no.
You are in the driver’s seat. those that want,need, or have to sell will. It is as simple as that.
Perhaps a better question is, do you still want to buy, even with 20% off?
“has anyone seen O smile since he took office”
Since the oath of office, nothing has gone right. Oh, wait, evn that was, as the president says, screwed up.
#325 clot:Wake me up on Memorial Day.
I think the start date has been moved to Flag Day, or Arbor Day, or maybe the 4th of July.
Being told I can’t look at a short sale property because the bank had the locks changed (bank located in TX) and besides, the bank hasn’t responded yet to an offer that has been on the table in over two months.
Am I being bullsh*tted or are banks really this dopey? They are actively discouraging people from bidding on their soon-to-be REO?
“Stocks are trading at low levels versus forward looking PEs.”
John,
That depends on one’s forward looking p/e’s. They may seem cheap to you, not me. That said, I do not rule out a major bear market rally, sometime in the next 3-4 months. The red carpet will be rolled out, if this occurs.
By the way, what are your forward looking p/e’s?
From MarketWatch:
Panel: Treasury overpaid by $78 billion for bank investments
The Treasury Department overpaid for its capital investments in banks and other financial institutions as part of a $700 billion bank bailout package, a government watchdog panel said Thursday. Harvard Law School Professor Elizabeth Warren, who heads an oversight panel for the bailout package, said that Treasury put in about $254 billion for warrants and other securities worth about $176 billion, a shortfall of $78 billion as of the date of the transactions. The committee she oversees, the Congressional Oversight Panel, valued the assets with the help of two outside academics and Duff & Phelps Corp, an advisory firm. Senate Banking Committee chairman Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., said the result “raised eyebrows” and needs to be investigated.
My key concern about Mr. O is that he will be always be treated as Junior Senator by senior member of both parties in House and Senate. Not having lot of experience in political deal making will cause him dearly (even presidency after 4 years).
I felt that even for W, that there was not much respect in congress on his abilities. Hence he started making more executive decisions than legislative ones.
I guess the Change people have been waiting for is really No Change At All. Honeymoon is over baby.
Lets see, of the $700B we spent $350B and of that $350B we overpaid $78B. It kinda makes the $300 toilet seat seem silly.
Am I being bullsh*tted or are banks really this dopey? They are actively discouraging people from bidding on their soon-to-be REO?
Short sales are initiated by the owner and the agent representing them. For the most part, none of these are authorized by the bank. The owner still owns the property, ownership has not yet been transferred to the bank.
What I don’t understand is, if the bank changed the locks, it means they own it. In this case, it would be a REO.
Sure you aren’t getting a runaround?
SG,
Unless B.O. vetos the spending bill — which has gotten oberbloated — he is toast and congress will view him as weak.
Clot,
A realtor form Asbury Park, you’d know the name of the agecy, just emailed me looking for a position in FX. Salary requirements, 400K. No exp in FX. You wonder why 95% of realtors are brain dead?
#317
are you kidding? stocks were hovering less than 75% from the mid 30s to the mid 90s. Perhaps you are counting on another bubble.
I know one of the people from Motorola
Shore Guy: Funny you and I have same initials.
I think at this junction O will compromise anything under the sun for passage of Stimulous bill. He got too carried away with that bill and thought he needed sledge hammer to resolve crisis. True politician would keep winning cards to his/her chest and not reveal it, till one knows what everyone wants in return. IMO he should have not come out with stimulous bill, but should have just pushed congress to propose one from comittees or formed some kind of convention or something. The way I see it, he is toast anyway for next 4 years.
[324] Shore
He Who Must Not Be Discussed On This Board never replied to my last email to him. He is still employed. That’s all I can say.
Re: short sale
From my agent…
“There is an offer on the table for the property for over two months. The bank is not responding to it and will not even give a payoff figure to the owner of the property. At present, the bank changed the locks and will not give them to the listing agent or present owner.”
Makes no sense to me.
Man, these markets are unbelievable. We are right back where we were 6 months ago. Up on hope, down on reality.
So much for the new prez. I should judge him so badly but he should had a plan by now. Good traders market. Wish I had the time to play!
Sen,
Your agent isn’t the listing agent, correct? I think there might be some kind of miscommunication here (think telephone game).
I need to brush up on my etiquette.
Is a “layoff card” a common practice? How does one approach such a situation?
Someone just walked into my office and asked me to sign a layoff card for an associate that was told they were being laid off last week.
What do you write?
Thought about: “Good luck, you’ll need it.”
But then I realized I didn’t want to be in that position. So then I figured “Good luck, better you than me.” But that was just evil.
Settled on “good luck”.
I’ve got a few old leatherbound books on etiquette, but I doubt this situation is mentioned. Stopped paging through once I came to a section about choosing a fork most appropriate to fend off an assassin.
Fortunoff files for bankruptcy
The regional jeweler plans to sell the company or close all stores after suffering a ‘liquidity crisis.’
understood, but how does this help the most bubbly areas where there is a huge inventory overhang? sure it might stir transactions of $150k homes in Kansas, but this isn’t really where the problem is.
What if Fannie loosening credit restrictions today and 15K in free money get that entry level Coop guy on SI into the game. They seller then buys something at the 300K range and that 300K pos moves into a 500K colonial.
We go back to 2002 and buy ourselves another 5 yrs.
DC will not let housing crash. They’re rather it carsh in real terms but nominally they will want to keep it at 30% tops.
#347 MM:DC will not let housing crash.
There is nothing they can do about it, and they know that;it is simply window dressing.
DC will not let housing crash.
They won’t? Florida? Nevada? Arizona? Cali? You sure they won’t, because from where I’m sitting, they already did.
Or are you saying they won’t let housing crash in the NY Metro? What allegiance does DC have to us?
Fed purchased $22.3 billion in MBS over the past week:
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/mbs/index.html
Mortgage rates?
Up.
Approximately 20% of the $500 billion blown in a single month. At this rate, they’ll have run through the full amount by May.
Help the Spring market, at ANY cost.
#337 BC For the love of God, please tell me you are joking. Please.
re: #345 Grim
You’ve been a great employee,
So diligent and true.
But there is no “i” in “our team,”
And now there is no “u.”
3b [352],
Not joking.
From MarketWatch:
Moody’s says U.S. financial position deteriorating
The Aaa-rating coveted by the U.S. is still stable, though it’s unclear how much the government’s interventions in financial markets and economic stimulus will affect its deteriorating financial position, Moody’s Investors Service said Thursday. U.S. Treasurys issued to the public are “most certain” to be paid, wrote Steven Hess, Moody’s senior credit officer, in a research report. The government had $5.8 trillion in debt held by the public at the end of 2008, the rating agency said. The government’s ratio of debt to gross domestic product, and debt and interest payments to federal revenue, will rise to levels that are high for a country rated Aaa-rated. “Whether in 2010 or after, interest rates are almost certain to rise from their current low levels and the affordability of the federal government debt will deteriorate,” analysts said. It’s difficult to determine the impact of purchases of preferred stock of housing agencies Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, any purchases under the Troubled Asset Relief Program or other capital provided to banks. As “these figures represent the purchase of assets, their ultimate effect on government debt is not clear,” analysts said. “Government could realize a net gain or a net loss.” Nonetheless, “structural fundamentals, political stability, and still favorable post-crisis economic prospects support the stable outlook for the Aaa ratings of the United States.”
Grim,
This is a different DC.
And a hell of a Band Aid.
15K per house. It’s a flippers subsidy.
4% fixed rates will allow most to refinance and that will put a band aid on foreclosures.
If you are renting on SI and paying $1,200 rent and have 15 thousand in savings. You could get into that 150K Coop with mortage of $644 per month(135K @4.0%).
you add a 15K free money bomus and you’d be a retard not to take it.
Bottom of the chain is fixed it will work itself up in no time.
It could help form a bottom in nominal terms. It could be the mustards seeds that we need.
Seneca (330)-
That’s a sign that they are about to schedule the sheriff sale and foreclose.
There could still be a short sale offer on the table, though.
BC (331)-
How do you price Armageddon into forward P/Es?
#357 – First I’ve heard of a bank basically trespassing and locking an owner out of their own house.
We’re talking Jersey right? Title theory, not lien theory.
SG (333)-
Pelosi & Reid have bum-rushed him like a passed out drunk on the 7 train.
#356 MM: Sorry, but I think you are hyperventilating over nothing,and its impact in the NY metro area at least will be zero.
It is just a tax credit.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dean-baker/senators-go-wild-approve_b_164151.html
Somebody shares my view. PS I hear the senator that introduced thi scomes from a prominent Atlanta family who makes their money in RE!
How do you price Armageddon into forward P/Es?
We might be close, I tried desperately to calculate P/Es this morning and my black box kept screaming out “DIVIDE BY ZERO ERROR”.
“15K per house. It’s a flippers subsidy.”
make,
Unless they have a gap ins policy, at closing, the 15K is gone, once the papers are signed.
I haven’t read this at all. Is it a 15K tax refund or a 15k write off?
grim (335)-
It’s probably a conscientious lender who has possibly noted a few things:
1. The short sale offer on the table is not viable.
2. The agent who listed the home has let the listing expire or has walked away from it.
3. The borrower has abandoned the property.
4. There is little chance of re-listing the property and drawing better offers.
There are a few lenders who will actually make the effort to secure their collateral by changing the locks on a house. Probably what happened here.
BC (354)-
Hire me for that 400K forex position.
I know how to give the high, hard one to Mrs. Watanabe.
That may have come out wrong…
BC (354)-
Your firm may have an eensy problem with my trading volume though…
I haven’t read this at all. Is it a 15K tax refund or a 15k write off?
BC,
It’s a refundable tax credit just like those additional child credit nonsense.
It does wipe the transaction cost of doing business.
Oh Billy Billy Billy
U.S. Must Spend to Avoid Mini Depression, Gross Says (Correct)
Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) — Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., said the U.S. may slump into a “mini depression” unless policy makers spend trillions of dollars to spur growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_qX29XEwEqg&refer=home
In other words, Billy wants more money!!! NOW!!!!
grim (363)-
Try dividing by negative numbers.
HE (369)-
Talking his own book. As usual.
Clot and Grim, thanks for your input. (Sure you guys don’t want to work the Union County beat?)
My agent only said that he agrees the whole thing makes no sense. I guess it’s time to subscribe to RealtyTrac or something. Did this forum ever come to a consensus on the best way to follow foreclosures and auctions without going to city hall every day?
#327
“Perhaps a better question is, do you still want to buy, even with 20% off?”
I guess that was the secondary implication of my question. (1) are there sellers who are game for a real lowball now (I think yes); (2) even if they are, do I want to buy any house now (or is there too much uncertainty).
contemplating throwing out some lowballs this weekend is why I ask
#373 skeptic: Too much uncertainity I would agree.
http://www.obamadeception.net/
Try dividing by negative numbers.
Is it normal for a desk calculator to smoke? Kinda smells like brimstone.
341 nom,
WTF??
sl
Not sure if this has already been reported..
FICO is getting a botox shot:
http://consumerist.com/5146660/6-ways-your-credit-score-changes-thursday
Do we need this now?
MI stock is trading at .15 of book value, BAC .17, Macys .37, goodyear .45, NYSE .56,CME .60 pretty crazy.
I think that you guys might be seeing this 15k tax credit wrong.
It appears that it is a doubling of the already existant 7,500$ program that is already in place and having no appreciable effect on the housing market.
It is actually a loan, the government gives you a 15k interest free loan to be paid back over 15? years that comes in the form of a tax credit. The money that you send to your mortgage company slowly repays the the federal portion of the loan. If you try to sell the house, the 15k lein is then repaid to the government.
The cost to the government is only the lost interest not collected on loaning you the money.
The government isn’t giving you 15k they are loaning you 15k.
BC Bob,
Hey I’ve got a bit more experience in the markets than that realtor and I’ll work for the paltry sum of 300k. I don’t even need a bonus, so you will not be lambasted by Congress.
In all seriousness, I thought a bit about what you mentioned about the currency swap extension by the Fed. Here is my take. I’m just trying to understand this part of the market. The central banks they extended these currency swaps are primarily in regions that have depreciated against the dollar, who may be having trouble getting more dollars for investing in the US market. The central banks in turn have been extending USD loans to banks in their banking system, who are using it to conduct securities transactions (mostly Treasury purchases and repo) earning a spread above what they are charged by the indirect Fed swap and providing liquidity to the US market and to absorb some of the Treasury issuance. The Fed is looking to continue stimulating Treasury purchases and repos to keep yields down or at least stable, as the Treasury expands issuance to cover spending. As Treasury expands issuance the Fed probably also leverages its balance sheet to neutralize the effect of increased Treasuries. I guess they would need to do this to prevent a depreciating dollar? These swaps if they matured without extensions, the central banks would have taken huge losses due to further depreciation since the initial extension of the swaps. I guess therefore, the extension. So what happens when they stop the currency swaps? Does dollar continue appreciating until the next maturity date? Some form of intervention happens to bring the dollar back down? Everything plays out in reverse?
Okay, I’m not an economist, but I like to play one from my BarcaLounger. My head hurts. Pass me a bottle of Advil.
Clotpoll says:
February 5, 2009 at 3:30 pm
SG (333)- Pelosi & Reid have bum-rushed him like a passed out drunk on the 7 train.
clot: I was wondering to whom exactly John Rocker was referring? Now I know. Which one has the blue hair?
Boeing is going to need a bailout soon. they will get behind the auto makers and the parts suppliers.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Boeing-commercial-jet-orders-apf-14267783.html
FICO scores are just a measure of how much you love debt.
Totally bull and should generally be ingnored by those who are not living entirely on debt. Don’t get me wrong, pay what you owe, just don’t go gaga over FICO scores.
Interestingly, I got a new bank recently because my old bank proved themselves stupid.
At the new bank they ran a credit check before I could open an account and they were not concerned with my FICO score they wanted to know my Debt To Income (DTI) ratio. The account manager let me know right off that they didn’t care about my FICO score because it was a meaningless indicator to them.
Old bank bounced one of my checks when there was clearly 10 times the amount of sufficient funds in the account. Can you say WTH? What is it that banks are supposed to do anyway?
Clotpoll says:
February 5, 2009 at 3:38 pm
BC (354)- Hire me for that 400K forex position.
I know how to give the high, hard one to Mrs. Watanabe. That may have come out wrong…
clot: it says forex not foreskin…..
chifi 385
You mean it’s XXX not “four-ex”
sl
This is news?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aKPyWGML0pho&refer=us
still_looking says:
February 5, 2009 at 4:27 pm
chifi 385 You mean it’s XXX not “four-ex”sl
Yo’ doc, I think we should swap punchlines…..
#373 skeptic; Too much uncertainity. I am going to wait and see how things play out this Spring market (whenever it starts this year)
In the meantime I am going to plan summer vacation, and wedding anniversary getaway (have to do the right thing for my better half).
I will also be looking for a lease deal, (do not wnat to part with my cash),as my son has my old Jeep now and is away in college,and my daughter will be driving soon (what can I say we got married young), and having only 1 car is very inconvenient, with family etc in NY.
Might even consider the flat screen TV, but I am too cheap, I like them, but I cannot justify it,as my current TV is fine.
The one I was looking at around Christmas time is $300 more now, than it was then (makes perfect sense, of course!!)
Just doing my patriotic duty to stimulate the economy.
No wonder BAC was up today. Here is the reason –
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmIObmv2t6M
Our next Senator from South Carolina….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lj3iNxZ8Dww&feature=related
Geithner’s plan to be revealed
Mon.
This should be good for a pop in the market.
Over here is southeastern PA, we have small cities but the services are supplied by townships. Our district is regional and includes three townships.
One thing to consider is that all of those small towns are not sucking money out of their residents. Some are small because the neighboring towns spend too much. Sometimes the argument against consolidation has more to do with cost than power.
This should be good for a pop in the market.
Or did he get a peek at the unemployment numbers tomorrow?
Preemptive strike?
Geithner’s plan may not matter, $300 bil in CMBS up for review.
toshiro_mifune says:
February 5, 2009 at 4:46 pm
Geithner’s plan to be revealed
Mon.
This should be good for a pop in the market.
tosh: is this related to clot foreskin (assuming it still exists)?
called a realtor today about a cheap home I saw and he was like whatever, he is sitting on one or two flips himself that are vacant. Basically, he said the days of 4,000-6,000 sq feet homes are over, all he is moving is more moderate homes in very good neighborhoods that are not overpriced. So many houses were torn down and made into mcmansions in the rich towns that competion is fierce at high ends, the folks who kept their basic capes and ranches in good condition will sell as people still want the town but they don’t want the price, problem is 95% of his listings are from people in too deep or put too much cash into house. He can only sell the 5% estate sale type houses with low taxes and lower prices.
#394 – That’s a good point. This has been a brutal month.
Good sales though.
Is it normal for a desk calculator to smoke? Kinda smells like brimstone.
Smells like the collective US taxpayer’s butthole after Frank, Pelosi, et al are done.
And no kiss, either.
And a nice home-cooked dinner? Fuggedaboutit.
sl
Keep buying guys, G and O are going to create a bear market rally come Monday!!! margin time today, but get out of margin on monday.
chifi, I was kinda hoping you’d retract that statement….
eesh… deteriorating rather quickly
sl
Re Geithner,
Buy the rumor sell the news. Like Grim said, tomorrow’s “official” unemployment is probably going through the roof. They trot out these “plan” rumors to try and defend Dow 8000 and S&P 800. It’s a losing battle but I guess they get the big money for looking like they are “doing” things.
Actually I don’t know what battle will be lost first: the further collapse of the stock market, or the sheeple waking up and realizing the government can’t save them.
Ron Paul introduces legislature to abanden the Federal Reserve
http://www.house.gov/apps/list/speech/tx14_paul/AbolishtheFed.shtml
This guy is like a pest he keeps talking eventhough no one is listening.
6 handle on the way?
sl
Oh I forgot, I am also in the market for a lap top computer for my daughte.
Need Word, Excel, Powerpoint etc.and the ability to download music.
Any recommendations, used to be a Dell fan, I have been told their quality has declined.
Any recommendations? I get a 10% discount thorugh my employer on both Dell and HP products. just looking for a solid dependable one.
I bought a Dell Studio 17 in Nov for around $750. Big monitor, not the best but big. It’s fast and cheap. More than enough for MSOffice type work.
I’ve had no problems with it.
Dell quality declined, for sure. For fifty bucks, an IT contractor at my husband’s job wiped his 3 year old Dell Insp. 2200, reloaded the s/w, and it’s working better than my brand new studio. I keep getting display errors, and it just seems flimsier.
[377] still,
I’ll email you.
Obama Creates Faith-Based Office
?????????
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123384729318652621.html
Dell is junk, Apple, Sony or Lenovo Thinkpad are the way to go. Quality construction and design are very important in laptops. Or you could go microsize I have an MSI wind which is really nice and very cheap($350) great for carrying around as a secondary computer.
make (403)-
Paul’s just trying the wrong tactics to abolish the Fed.
About 5 M-777 Howitzer shells should do the trick on the building. Then, a Ceaucescu-style televised execution of Bergabe should drive the point home.
#368
“Is it a 15K tax refund or a 15k write off?
BC,
It’s a refundable tax credit just like those additional child credit nonsense.
It does wipe the transaction cost of doing business.”
well, in NY you’ve got the mortgage tax and the transfer tax, so in a sense the feds simply refund your state taxes for buying the house plus a little extra. I still don’t see how this is meaningful enough to get someone off the bench
it just seems flimsier
They are flimsier, but very very cheap.
My other choice was a 17inch Mac Book Pro, but that cost around $2800.
#406,407,410 Thanks.
How about Dell vs HP
If we keep up at this rate (about 500K job losses per month) then Xmas 09 really will be canceled. We already lost more then 1 million since december
U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Jump to 626.000, a 26-Year High
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=home&sid=aO7ElkdZ6rd0
#411 clot: I will never forgte that picture of Ceaucescu whimpering in a corner like a scared dog, before they shot him.
408, nom
thanks!
sl
Oh yeah, the REITs are gonna be just fine. And, it will only be a matter of time before everybody figures out AAA-rated CMBS are no better than subprime residential sludge.
Got SRS?:
By Sarah Mulholland
Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) — Moody’s Investors Service is reviewing the ratings of $302.6 billion in commercial mortgage-backed securities as real-estate values drop and property owners fall behind on payments.
The review encompasses 52 percent of outstanding U.S. commercial mortgage-backed debt ranked by Moody’s, the New York- based ratings company said today in a statement. The top ratings of so-called senior
and mezzanine AAA bonds, which represent 72 percent of the securities being reviewed, probably won’t be affected, Moody’s said.
“Property values declined sharply in 2008, and we anticipate further declines over the next 12 to 24 months,” Moody’s analyst Nick Levidy said in the statement. “Delinquencies on CMBS loans are also on the rise, and we expect the pace to accelerate as macroeconomic pressures take a toll on property cash flows.”
The U.S. recession is crimping consumer spending and hurting business growth, making it harder for commercial property owners to make their payments. Ratings cuts can boost the capital needs of holders such as banks and insurers, and may force some investors to sell debt.
I am seeing a ton of houses coming on the market in my area from people who bought in 2004 forward. Obviously these are people who bought more than they could afford or lost jobs recently. Almost all of them are coming on the market trying to make a profit above the peak price they paid. It is insane. These places are all going to be foreclosures by the end of the year. It is true what John said— only estate sales or people with paid off houses have a shot a realistic pricing right now. Everyone else who is trying to sell is underwater and are not worth approaching until they get the REO dept involved
#414 – HP has a low end line (don’t remember the name right now) that is pretty close to Dell on spec but I’m completely unfamiliar with the quality of the build. Having said that I haven’t heard any complaints.
I’ve used a few of their mid-range models which were nice.
I should say I normally loathe laptops.
so now we have alt-a lons going sour and credit crads
US credit card delinquencies at record high
US credit card delinquencies hit a record high in January, and further deterioration is likely as the economy slows down and unemployment rises, Fitch Ratings says. Payments at least 60 days late rose almost half a percentage point last month to a record 3.75 per cent, said Fitch. Credit card lenders also wrote off loans to delinquent borrowers at close to record levels, and such “charge-offs” were expected to breach records in the coming months. Michael Dean, managing director at Fitch, said: “US consumers continue to struggle in the face of mounting pressures on multiple fronts from employment to housing to net worth.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b1e100fe-f30e-11dd-abe6-0000779fd2ac.html
At least its only a risk and hasn’t occurred yet…
Summers Warns Deflation Is ‘Real Risk’ for Economy
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aLqmR5ZB_RYI
Skep [419],
It’s not that easy locating a qualified seller.
BC,
dont worry, everyone is doing it…
Each to their own
Strikes against the use of foreign workers in the UK; French carmakers told to buy domestic components and not close factories in France; a minister in Spain urging consumers to buy Spanish: protectionism in Europe appears to be rising by the day. Warnings over the attendant risks are also on the increase. “Protectionism would be a sure-fire way of turning recession into depression,”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0705933c-f2f2-11dd-abe6-0000779fd2ac.html
“This bill is imperative for our economic security,” Summers said.
kettle [422],
Do they ever think that the American public will become tired of their constant BS? Economic security? I’d rather take the $ and roll the dice. At least, you then have a shot.
kettle [424],
The recession of 1930 turned into a depression as a result of protectionism. The shots are being heard around the world. Duck, this will be the final straw.
here is an example of the sort of place I am talking about. I am going to look at this place this weekend. Bought in 2004 for $600k. On the market now for $750k (after initially coming on the market at $850k). Previously, the place sold for $350k in 1999. So I think there is no way this place is worth more than $500k (probably less), but the question is whether there is any point in trying to make a bid based on real (rather than imaginary) value. my guess is no
Nicholas says:
February 5, 2009 at 4:12 pm
I think that you guys might be seeing this 15k tax credit wrong.
It appears that it is a doubling of the already existant 7,500$ program that is already in place and having no appreciable effect on the housing market.
It is actually a loan, the government gives you a 15k interest free loan to be paid back over 15?
if THIS is what the tax credit is, then i’ll pass on it, thanks. and you’re right – it won’t help at all.
in fact, we had this opportunity and passed on it.
Predicting 60% Decline for Manhattan Property; TARP for Trump?
A very effective guide for long term home values is actually median home price to income. Houses actually don’t gain in value over the long haul. Urban density and usage shifts can dramatically change the value of real-estate, but outside of that real estate is just a flat asset. Here is an academic paper showing the value of prime real estate in Amsterdam over a 400 year period, it’s a break even proposition. A home is only worth what people can afford to pay for it. If you can squeeze more people onto a given area of land and create more homes then you can maximize the value of the land such as in Manhattan over the last few decades.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/118333-predicting-60-decline-for-manhattan-property-tarp-for-trump?source=patrick.net
well, as pretorious used to like to say, proximity to economic activity is a huge driver of RE value. to the extent the nature of economic activity in an area changes, we should expect the value of local RE to reflect that change. in our present case, the nature of local economic activity has fundamentally (likely permanently) changed for the worse in recent months
[411] clot
5 shells. I dunno, its a pretty big building and solid (lotsa stone and steel). And what about the Fortress on Maiden Lane? Even a bunker buster won’t take out everything.
#429 – Predicting 60% Decline for Manhattan Property
City sends SoHo residents copies of After Hours to prepare them for what’s to come…
I posted this last night. There was an update to http://www.deepcapture.com on Feb 3rd. Some Interesting details on Madoff, Spitzer, and the French Guy who offed himself last month Monsieur Rene Thierry Magon de La Villehuchet.
Long read the author is Mark Mitchell former Wall St Journal Writer.
BC
When do people finally get fed up with government officials making such blatantly false and misleading statements
Summers Warns Deflation Is ‘Real Risk’ for Economy
Its no different then banks having to say they are well capitalized.
http://i41.tinypic.com/2m7g7dh.gif
Nom,
may putin will one us one of these?!?!?!?
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=3a9_1189540023&o=1
ooops
CBO: Obama stimulus harmful over long haul
President Obama’s economic recovery package will actually hurt the economy more in the long run than if he were to do nothing, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday.
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/96xx/doc9619/Gregg.pdf
d2b says:
February 5, 2009 at 4:47 pm
Over here is southeastern PA, we have small cities but the services are supplied by townships. Our district is regional and includes three townships.
One thing to consider is that all of those small towns are not sucking money out of their residents. Some are small because the neighboring towns spend too much. Sometimes the argument against consolidation has more to do with cost than power.
d2b – how do you feel bucks is holding up during the recession? i haven’t seen too many more houses go on the market, but im trying not to look (but i still have 3 realtors sending me those standard-issue emails with places for sale).
i haven’t seen too many stores closing, although a pier 1 imports looks dead in the water (never been in there).
Clot,
have noticed more and more references to 1776 and revolutionary statements in a number of finance and economic blogs….
The (more eductae) masses are starting to get restless……
There seems to have been a sudden run up in such comments in the last few weeks
The (more eductae) masses are starting to get restless……
I clearly am not one of those. will replay the hooked on phonics lesson :(
The government is going to start throwing around this “depression talk” to gain more and more power just they used the “terrorism threat” to gain more power. Soon enough we’ll all wake up one morning to a dictatorship.
skep-tic says:
February 5, 2009 at 5:36 pm
here is an example of the sort of place I am talking about. I am going to look at this place this weekend. Bought in 2004 for $600k. On the market now for $750k (after initially coming on the market at $850k). Previously, the place sold for $350k in 1999. So I think there is no way this place is worth more than $500k (probably less), but the question is whether there is any point in trying to make a bid based on real (rather than imaginary) value. my guess is no
You can clear it up real quick by seeing if there is a mortgage recorded against the deed, and the amount thereof, before even looking at the property. If underwater, simply ask if the owner intends or has the means to bring significant cash to the closing table. It telegraphs what you’re thinking pricewise, but you have to show that hand sooner or later.
#427 skep-tic “I think there is no way this place is worth more than $500k (probably less), but the question is whether there is any point in trying to make a bid based on real (rather than imaginary) value. my guess is no”
It is funny you are contemplating it. It seems you are not able to view a house as an investment. Would you buy a stock if it is above what you think it should be? If you feel you missed if someone bought it instead of you then you are not ready for it.
skep (430)-
“well, as pretorious used to like to say…”
pretorious has been cashiered. Now you can find him on the same rubble heap as all the flippers, option-ARMed and subprime swill.
tosh (432)-
I remember the good old days: dinner at Montrachet, walk to Soho Kitchen, continue to get hammered, then walk up to Houston St…because cabbies wouldn’t go south of it after sundown.
“pretorious has been cashiered.”
Was that his blackbox that I just tripped over, in the dumps of Harrison?
#445 – I don’t know if it’ll regress all the way back to the 80’s, but the city is going to become a lot more interesting over the next few years.
#445 – I don’t know if it’ll regress all the way back to the 80’s, but the city is going to become a lot more interesting over the next few years.
nuts, double post. I was gettin’ crazy with the clicking.
BC Bob – Can you check out my comments at 381 in regards to the Fed currency swaps. Wanted to see if my thinking cap isn’t off kilter.
Not sure if this was posted earlier today but in light of all of the job layoffs – here is an interesting opportunity. I remember suggesting this as an option a couple of months ago when people were complaining about the lack of expertise/professionalism in Indian and other labor markets.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/05/news/companies/ibm_jobs/index.htm
but as others suggested in return for a job you would have to work on “local terms”.
I just want to buy a decent house that I can afford. I don’t want to pay way over what it is worth, but I will be buying for the long term, so I am not going to get bent out of shape if I don’t hit the exact market bottom. Right now, I don’t think we are even close to the bottom, however, so unless I am going to get 20% off or so, I am definitely sitting out.
kettle – i would welcome a 60% decline in Manhattan. It would make my city home/ mountain/lake retreat a viable reality.
moose (442)-
I present offers on places like these all the time. I make an offer to manage the short sale process one of the terms of the contract.
To see the look on a seller’s face when they figure out that I know they’re hopelessly upside-down is priceless.
New thread, move it up!
woody (443)-
“It seems you are not able to view a house as an investment.”
Funny. I thought that the attitude of viewing a house as an investment was what’s caused so much of the recent mess.
toshiro_mifune says:
February 5, 2009 at 6:56 pm
#445 – I don’t know if it’ll regress all the way back to the 80’s, but the city is going to become a lot more interesting over the next few years.
having left the city about 11 months ago, i have to say im somewhat excited about this. if all goes well over the next two years, i’d LOVE to maybe consider buying a small 1-bedroom on the cheap. as the city crumbles in a few years.
it’ll bubble up again in a decade.
#457 Haven’t you heard? It was subprime loans that got us in to this mess.