From StreetInsider:
UBS Says New York City Unemployment Could Reach Mid-1970s High
Investment Bank UBS published a report today that said New York City’s economic decline is likely only in the innings and it is likely to only get worse. UBS said the unemployment rate may reach 10.5%, a level not seen since the mid-1970s.
The city’s residential real estate market and employment has held held up better than most areas. Home prices, which declined 14% as of November since their peak, may fall another 20 to 25% “if not more,” according to the report.
In December, NYC unemployment rate was 7.4%, up from 5.1% a year earlier. Financial services accounted for 13% of city employment in 2007.
Back to the 70s, Rick James, etc.
Very much interested in receiving a copy of this report..
Wink wink.
toshiro_mifune says:
February 5, 2009 at 6:56 pm
#445 – I don’t know if it’ll regress all the way back to the 80’s, but the city is going to become a lot more interesting over the next few years.
having left the city about 11 months ago, i have to say im somewhat excited about this. if all goes well over the next two years, i’d LOVE to maybe get the pieces in place to buy a small 1-bedroom on the cheap as the city crumbles. i might target 2012.
it’ll bubble up again in a decade.
it’ll bubble up again in a decade.
Or two (maybe three), yike-san.
I’d move back to the city if prices fall enough to go back to normal appreciation. What would that be? Roughly 50%?
#6 is a MUST READ
Click the link, read the full text.
Go, Mikey:
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 2009
Obama . . . Hypocrite or Psychopathic Liar
Despite Obama’s pledge to control lobbyists, I am being bombarded this week about the efforts being made in Washington on behalf of the builders. It’s not just bad, it’s downright criminal.
We ARE going to see a huge Builder-Bill pass as part of the StimUseless package. I’ve received more communication about the lobbyists efforts on behalf of builders, than anything else in the last few months. It’s stunning just how powerful they are and how these guys have both the Republicans and the Democrats in their pockets. The sad thing is . . . Washington is not helping homeowners, but they are actually going to make the problem worse.
1 – By keeping the builders in business, they will continue to add inventory that we don’t need.
2 – The proposals we are seeing are builder and banker friendly at the expense of the taxpayer.
3 – The proposals appear to be homeowner friendly on the surface, but long term the effects are devastating. Trying to keep people in homes they cannot afford is a losing proposition. Lower interest rates and providing complicated tax credits will backfire. It sounds good, so both sides vote for this . . . because it helps them get re-elected. Moreover, no one will be able to point a finger two years, from now, because what these crooks are doing will be lost in the shuffle.
This is why the builders are rallying. I obviously underestimated the failure of Obama to honor anything he seems to have been elected to do, and I underestimated the power of the lobbyists these builders have hired . . . with our money. But the end result is the same. The builders will eventually move lower, as most of them will be out of business.
As we move into the Depression, which Obama seems to be guaranteeing on a daily basis with his inactions and turnover of government to the lobbyists he said he loathes, the housing market will deteriorate further, harder and into an abyss that nothing but rock bottom despair will turn around.
One final note. The level of foreclosures coming through our residential real estate business is at a peak now. I am turning away 75% of the emails we receive with foreclosures!!!! I still want to be short the builders, but it may take longer than initially expected to close out all of our trades at the profits we want. With all that is going on, I would wait till next week to short more. Wait till this news hits the media, and then you can short more.
P.S. I sent this to one of my information sources today:
After receiving your stuff, I puked, and then I decided to put something out for my clients. Obama is not only a hypocrite, I think he is a psychopathic liar. He doesn’t even realize he’s lying. For him it is so natural, that it is his very essence. Just think about when he said he sat in the church for 20 years and never heard any of Reverend Wright’s garbage. We are in deep trouble. Obama has only put out one truthful statement . . . we are headed for a catastrophe.
Some more from the Economist piece:
Rotten as Alt-A loans are, worse may be to come. As unemployment in America heads towards 8%, even strongly underwritten loans will go bad. Bankers are growing increasingly anxious about the $1.1 trillion of prime mortgage loans and securities, much of which they held on to themselves, assuming it to be bombproof. This sits on their books at “much more optimistic” values than lower-grade mortgages, says one. Some 70% of prime securities will eventually have their ratings cut, according to a “downgrade-o-meter” produced by JPMorgan Chase. As Guy Cecala of Inside Mortgage Finance, a newsletter, puts it: “The mortgage storm’s first wave was subprime. Now we are being buffeted by Alt-A. But a bigger wave is on the horizon, and it cuts across all loan types.”
#3 – Yikes, you’ve described my plan almost exactly. I’m not too sure on how long it would take NYC to recover.
If they get very stupid with the infrastructure projects (think Robert Moses) it could take a long time.
New Jersey Madoff Victims:
http://blog.nj.com/ledgerupdates_impact/2009/02/MADDOWVICs.pdf
Overpriced eateries fading fast.
From the Record:
Historic restaurant closes its doors
The Ho-Ho-Kus Inn, the historic restaurant in the center of the borough’s downtown, has closed.
Executive Chef Jesus Murillo said he and the rest of the staff were let go after Saturday’s dinner service. The Web site says the restaurant is closed for renovations until spring, but Murillo said he doesn’t know whether it will reopen.
Chris Kelly, who has owned the restaurant for about two years, didn’t immediately return phone messages.
The Ho-Ho-Kus Inn is the second high-profile restaurant closing in the last week. Arthur’s Landing in Weehawken closed Tuesday.
Bye, Bye Dubai
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sk9Sbpnkd-4
Bitch, make me a sandwich…
11: Grimster
Huh.
I know 2 of them.
1 ABSOLUTELY deserves to be beaten out back ‘da woodshed.
He had a severe accident as a driver and his passenger was killed. He fled the scene and never fessed up.
The other is a trust for employees of a company I do work for. I only know the one guy I deal with. Nice guy. That’s sad.
so, what happens when all the other bubbles besides RE bursts?
This shakeout is far from over.
SAS
interesting..
Sidley Austin LLC, crony lawyer & Acorn friends, ran a series of hedge fund frauds for Bernard Madoff who paid victims through dummy accounts with JPMorgan Chase and BNY Mellon.
but you didn’t hear that from me.
SAS
12 grim….. Awwwwww F.UCK! Shoulda used that gift certificate after all.
[channeling Beavis/Butthead] heeheehee He said grim! “rushing to catch up with this grim reality.”
sl
Hunterdon County GTG at the HC litterbox otherwise known as “Tiff’s”…
http://www.tiffanysrestaurant.com/
Rt 31 North
Clinton, NJ 08833
908-713-0222 phone
March 7th, so as to not interfere with Clot’s mugshot appointment on the 14th.
Please, dear gawd, do NOT believe their boilerplate BS about great service and food.
They give you a butter knive to cut bread. These people need mental help. I’m shocked, SHOCKED they are still in business. But they can’t screw up liquor and appetizers too bad, I hope…
What was the name of that (Irish) place in Bridgewater that was where Houlihan’s is now?
I watched a cockroach make his own taco at the taco bar there… the cockroach disappeared into the meat tray, then came out, disappeared into the cheese tray, came outta that, disappeared into the lettuce tray, came amblin’ back and then disappeared into the onions.
I swear to f**k he walked across a napkin on his way out. Tacos a messy to eat.
bwahhhhhhhhhhhh. Grimster.
I’ve been modded.
Halp.
Hunterdon County GTG at the HC litterbox otherwise known as “Tiff’s”…
http://www.tiffanysrestaurant.com/
Rt 31 North
Clinton, NJ 08833
908-713-0222 phone
March 7th, so as to not interfere with Clot’s mugshot appointment on the 14th.
Please, dear gawd, do NOT believe their boilerplate BS about great service and food.
They give you a butter knive to cut bread. These people need mental help. I’m shocked, SHOCKED they are still in business. But they can’t screw up liquor and appetizers too bad, I hope…
What was the name of that (Irish) place in Bridgewater that was where Houlihan’s is now?
I watched a cockroach make his own taco at the taco bar there… the cockroach disappeared into the meat tray, then came out, disappeared into the cheese tray, came outta that, disappeared into the lettuce tray, came amblin’ back and then disappeared into the onions.
I swear to f**k he walked across a napkin on his way out. Tacos a messy to eat.
WordPress eated my comment.
WordPressed.
how bad will crime get?
Second try:
What was the name of that (Irish) place in B**dgewater that was where Houlihan’s is now?
I watched a cockroach make his own taco at the taco bar there… the cockroach disappeared into the meat tray, then came out, disappeared into the cheese tray, came outta that, disappeared into the lettuce tray, came amblin’ back and then disappeared into the onions.
I swear to f**k he walked across a napkin on his way out. Tacos a messy to eat.
Third try:
What was the name of that (Irish) place in B**dgewater that was where H@ulihan’s is now?
I watched a c@ckr@ach make his own taco at the taco bar there… the c@ckr@ach disappeared into the meat tray, then came out, disappeared into the cheese tray, came outta that, disappeared into the lettuce tray, came amblin’ back and then disappeared into the onions.
I swear to gawd he walked across a napkin on his way out. Tacos are messy to eat.
“Hunterdon County GTG”
what time?
oh.
What’s a good time? 7pm? 8pm?
I’ve never done this.
I do belong to an internet group that puts on a NATIONWIDE GTG.
We had chatted for years before we met. All flew/drove/slithered to Plano TX for a 3 day GTG. Like 1,000 people.
I’m also an early night bird. Sleepy by 10-11pm.
So, I say get together is “done” after 2 hours and lingering can occur after that, but at least you won’t feel like an arse if you want to leave at 10pm…
How many people usually come to these? Should I call Tiff’s and warn the cadavors that work there?
Clotpoll says:
February 5, 2009 at 6:50 pm
tosh (432)- I remember the good old days: dinner at Montrachet, walk to Soho Kitchen, continue to get hammered, then walk up to Houston St…because cabbies wouldn’t go south of it after sundown.
clot: was this after doing blow with Mario Batali?
“What recession?”
…jackass
ChiFi (30)-
This was when Batali was still in diapers.
This was when Bouley was chef at Montrachet, QG was still considered to be good and lots of places could serve you an $8 bowl of jellybeans and call it dessert.
Da Silvano was the best Italian restaurant in NY…and Gargiulo’s in Coney Island wasn’t too far behind it.
Dinosaur days.
Why isn’t the roundabout draining properly?
FWIW, I can’t find the report using my thomson analytics terminal. It’s tough without a ref id or an author, title or something to go on…
Spam: Been to two that were only Grim,Lost & myself. They were in Clifton you would think it would draw the BC crowd but….
Sorry to say to far for me being in Sussex. SAS you going back to Lodi from there that’s a hike after drinking.
Enjoy!
#11 Wow,
Say 6 from Chatham 5 from Summit, 3 Madison.
??? Hubby and I’ve been to 4 already
Tara/ ?Parsippany
Tavern/Motown
Hoboken?
IOUSA movie
sl
Yesterday at my kids school I saw some Wall St type bragging about how much money he made when he sold his house. He made so much he made a huge downpayment on a great house. He then added, of course, that was when the market was stronger.
What a dip$shit.
I worked on the front office for a few years so I know the type. Perfect hair, brags about fine wines he can’t tell from $10 bottles, bs artist.
SL
Did you get my email? I’m guessing you’re passing on it right?
Nevermind,
Found it.
Will link shortly.
One pager, not much there:
Uhh, you have to wait 90 seconds before it downloads, sorry, I don’t know of any other site.
Text of report:
http://uploading.com/files/22CYRH2S/UBS_NYC.pdf.html
Hi Lost,
pobably gonna wait til we can find a local one… plus – need to start looking at handguns before permit runs out… then will proceed…
We still have some time. :)
Was hoping Clot would toss me a nice Howitzer… :))
sl
Check out the custom windows on this one in Summit.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Summit-City_NJ_07901_1106435410
SL,
Are we going to have our own Bergen County one? You, me (your other half), PGC, 3B. Maybe we talk BC Bob into going (as I always thought BC stood Bergen County) and Grim.
We could go to Legends in Midland Park, Smith Brothers in Ridgewood (across from train station), Brady’s in Ramsey (across from train station)…
What say ye?
Rich,
I *love* the idea! If I knew it would be less than 20 people, I’d see if we could have it here instead so folks could really hang out and talk…
…’sides, I owe grimmy a glass of scotch. :)
sl
anyone up for Lodi?
but in Lodi, watch what you say in the ball room.. i learned that lessson the hard way.
:)
SAS
SAS,
ok…. tell.
sl
“ok…. tell”
my Lodi story?
well, one night back in the late 70s, might of been 76-77. i was in Lodi and got drunker than a skunk in the ball room (why i was in Lodi, i have no idea, i think i was chasen a nice looking italian women).
but, i started mouthing off to some guy on the barstool, he knocks me off the chair, i goto fight back, next thing i remember…. i’m left for damn near dead in the middle of nowhere. Talk about dazed & confused… man alive!!
back in the day (dont know much about now), mafia “dirty work” types hung out around the joints in Lodi. I mouth off to a notorious person (there was a book written about this guy years later), and I didn’t even know it.
This person spared me that night.
why? I have my suspcions.
SAS
I would do either GTG (Hunterdon or Bergen). The calendar is clear for March 7th surprisingly. It seems this blog has become popular with a wider audience as of late so I would guess these GTGs would have a larger crowd, although Clinton might still stay small. Nothing wrong with that IMO.
Good night all and sifting through 500 posts a day are killing me. Grim, this place gets better and better all the time.
We sure are due for a GTG.
So, today I go to the shoe store (Famous Footwear) to get a new pair of dress shoes for work. The salt and snow have finally triumphed over my current pair.
I’m a size 13, which sometimes make buying shoes a little difficult as it is. The stores tend to carry a limited supply of my size. However, Famous Footwear is a big place, so I can usually get what I need, even if I have to settle for my second or 3rd choice. Well yesterday, there was absolutely nothing in my size. So, I ask Al Bundy if he has anything in the back. He replies that due to the recession, they are only carrying the most popular sizes; after all, carrying inventory costs money and with money tight, they need to get the most bang for their buck. I hope all the stores are doing this, or I will soon be shoe-less.
No lines at Costco tonight. Cashier said it’s been slow lately during the week.
Renting, I know. My husband takes a 9.5w or 10w and wears sneakers to work. He will wear ONLY all white trainers. I used to be able to pick him up wides any time at most shoe stores/dept. stores.
I’m not finding the wides. I’m going to start hoarding them. He goes through a pair every two months -sometimes more often – once he starts using the weed wacker.
Chuckie Cheese has been empty on the parties, too. Definite cut back on the kid’s parties going on. And I’m in a DC hinterland.
Last Saturday, there was one party going on at noon.
I just checked. There’s a couple of funky pairs of those Steve Madden evil elf look dress shoes in 13’s..on Famous Footwear online.
Airing on CNBC Thursday February 12th at 8:00PM:
THE HOUSE OF CARDS
CNBC presents the definitive report on the defining story of our time. CNBC correspondent David Faber investigates the origins of the global economic crisis, with first person accounts from home buyers, mortgage brokers, investment bankers and investors – most of whom let greed blind them, leading to the greatest financial collapse since the Great Depression.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28892719/
Second airing at 12:00 midnight.
All Rise !!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l46t_nrySg4
RE: The Economist — “In ratings terms, Alt-A is doing worse than subprime.”
See also:
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4668112n
I see the name of someone I know on that list of victims.
It was probably her trust fund.
Hmm. Sounds familiar? Once NY Slimes published an article not 100% supportive of the Stimulus/Porkulus, you know it is in deep trouble.
” Japan’s rural areas have been paved over and filled in with roads, dams and other big infrastructure projects, the legacy of trillions of dollars spent to lift the economy from a severe downturn caused by the bursting of a real estate bubble in the late 1980s. During those nearly two decades, Japan accumulated the largest public debt in the developed world — totaling 180 percent of its $5.5 trillion economy — while failing to generate a convincing recovery. Now, as the Obama administration embarks on a similar path, proposing to spend more than $820 billion to stimulate the sagging American economy, many economists are taking a fresh look at Japan’s troubled experience. . . . Among ordinary Japanese, the spending is widely disparaged for having turned the nation into a public-works-based welfare state and making regional economies dependent on Tokyo for jobs. Much of the blame has fallen on the Liberal Democratic Party, which has long used government spending to grease rural vote-buying machines that help keep the party in power.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/06/world/asia/06japan.html?_r=1&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink
Jamil….I agree in some ways…I would like to see us upgrade our electrical grid…and fix up roads….come on now…isn’t that worthwhile.
Essex: Actually, Bush’s highway bill in 2005 did more to infrastructure than porkulus bill.
Handing out billions for ACORN etc , as in Porkulus, hardly helps our infrastructure (or economy).
“MONTGOMERY, Ill – President Bush, saying it will help economic growth, on Wednesday signed a whopping $286.4 billion transportation bill that lawmakers lined with plenty of cash for some 6,000 pet projects back home.
With fanfare, Bush signed the more than 1,000-page highway bill into law at a plant operated by Caterpillar Inc., which makes road-building equipment. For the president, it was his second trip away from his Texas ranch this week to highlight recently passed legislation.
“If we want people working in America, we got to make sure our highways and roads are modern,” Bush said. “We’ve got to bring up this transportation system into the 21st century.”
just leaving for work… will check in later
wow. SAS.. egads.
sl
6:25 AM, and Jamil is already off on his quest to drive us nuts with his tedious, one-track bleating.
Man, you must be a blast to have drinks with.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dc25654e-f3e5-11dd-9c4b-0000779fd2ac.html
Financial Times – US explores converting stakes in banks
Clot – You’re going to love this one…
“Bank stocks, meanwhile, rallied on Thursday as bankers expressed fresh confidence that the US authorities will find ways to circumvent mark-to-market rules as part of the new financial rescue package.”
From the Record:
Fortunoff to liquidate if buyer can’t be found
Luxury jewelry and home furnishings retailer Fortunoff, which haughtily calls itself The Source, is seeking a buyer and will liquidate if it doesn’t find one, according to bankruptcy documents filed Thursday.
A liquidation would create new retail vacancies in Paramus and Wayne. There are two Fortunoff stores in Paramus — a backyard and furniture store on Route 17, and a jewelry and gift store at Paramus Park mall. There is a full-size Fortunoff department store at the Wayne Towne Center mall in Wayne. A spokeswoman for Fortunoff said Thursday the New Jersey stores remain open and are conducting business as usual.
The Uniondale, N.Y.-based chain has 20 stores in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania. The company last month closed its Manhattan store, but said that was a previously planned real estate move.
Rumors that the 87-year-old chain’s demise was imminent have been circulating for weeks, with retail analysts saying it will be nearly impossible for the chain’s owners to find a buyer in the current economic environment. The chain confirmed in court documents that it has been in discussions with liquidators as well as potential buyers.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/02/paulson-overpaid-by-78-billion-for-tarp.html
Did you see this one from yesterday?
Paulson Overpaid by 78billion for TARP Bank Equity
“Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard Law professor, said her group estimated the Treasury paid $254 billion in 2008 in return for stocks and warrants worth $176 billion under the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP.
Warren said the Treasury, under then Secretary Henry Paulson, misled the public about how it would price them.
“Treasury simply did not do what it said it was doing…They described the program one way, and they priced it another…”
JPM report: GE’s AAA rating and dividend are unsustainable.
Cindy (65, 67)-
Oh, yeah. Both reports were highlights of my day.
Can’t be surprised by Klink’s trading. Take the guy out of GS, but you can’t take GS out of the guy. Front-running, bait & switching and bucket-shopping are their favorite techniques.
But pretty soon, GS will give you a free toaster when you open an account.
66 Grim – Might as well just bulldoze the whole Wayne Towne Center now and turn it into parking for DSW and Bahama Breeze. All that is left of the old mall is JC Penney.
Might as well just bulldoze the whole Wayne Towne Center now and turn it into parking for DSW and Bahama Breeze. All that is left of the old mall is JC Penney.
But what do we do with the Mistake-in-the-Meadowlands?
Clot report here:
http://www.megaupload.com/?d=JAKAVG6A
Moody’s
(1/27/2009)
“. . . the global economic downturn and continued tight credit market conditions create some
strong headwinds for the company’s long cycle Energy, Aviation, Transportation, and
Healthcare businesses . . . . Reduced order flow and deferral or cancellation of existing orders
could be a more significant concern in the coming year.”
“Incremental borrowing or reduction of existing liquidity levels to meet the dividend would be
uncharacteristic for a firm with a Aaa rating.”
Standard & Poor’s
(12/18/2008)
“The outlook is negative, indicating that we believe there is at least a one-in-three possibility of
a downgrade within the next two years. GE’s commitment to maintaining the highest credit
quality, the still-solid prospects for many of its business segments (even in light of developing
economic weakness), and the company’s ample financial flexibility should continue to support
our ratings. We would re-examine our credit opinions if, for example, GE failed to generate free
cash flow (after dividends and assets sales) in 2009 or 2010. This would likely require a
combination of events: net earnings below the $14 billion area, which could occur if GECC’s
earnings are much weaker than the $5 billion that GE expects; a reduction of 25 basis points or
more in the industrial gross margin; and GE’s being unsuccessful in managing working capital
or asset sales in 2009. We could review the rating if GECC fell short of its various earnings and
other funding measures in 2009.”
“GECC will account for about a third of GE’s earnings in 2009–or less if worse-than-expected
credit losses further reduce GECC’s earnings. Even with its current stand-alone credit profile of
‘A+’, GECC remains one of the world’s most profitable and highly rated financial institutions.”
The other day, someone put up a link to a news article about HENRYs and how they were getting squeezed and the amount they need to save (apx $60,000 a year) to retire, etc. I was just looking for it and could not find it. If you would repost the link, I would appreciate it.
“But what do we do with the Mistake-in-the-Meadowlands?”
I created a new logo for my town.
http://i442.photobucket.com/albums/qq145/stuw6/Montclair-Card.gif
“But what do we do with the Mistake-in-the-Meadowlands?”
Hoffa?
Tonight I get a sneak peak at what life will be like with Stu when we are 65. We’re going to CulinAriane for restaurant week and will be eating at the crack of 5:30.
Grim,
Xanadu: Talk about dead man walking, the timing on this Frankenstein couldn’t be worse.
I still think that Cabellas will pull out of that place.
Can we turn it into a Casino?
What, so late? Don’t forget to ask for extra bread, and make sure you have a LARGE bag to put the extra bread into. You can eat it all week. lol
“Can we turn it into a Casino?”
Congress?
Passed there the other day ugly as hell,
what were they thinking. Get out the wrecking ball.
“No one is going to sell a house (at any price) if there is no one there to buy it. No one will be able to buy it if they are not gainfully employed. As I stated in “Will someone tell our government that you can’t legislate high asset prices? ” and “I guess I need to go back to DC”, you cannot legislate high asset prices with artificially low financing rates.”
Check out the chart.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/118706-seeking-stabilization-in-the-housing-market-look-at-this-chart
I would not even think of buying till the target “X” has been hit. But then again if this happens we will be loading up the guns. This is not good.
grim [80],
Sure, a casino will create hundreds of well-paying jobs that will sustain the area’s status as a hub for a higher standard of living and a position on the upper levels of the socio-economic ladder. :o
“Warren said the Treasury, under then Secretary Henry Paulson, misled the public about how it would price them.”
Nothing new here, we said the same from day 1.
Speaking of GS, no link;
“Yessiree, no more problems on Morgan’s or Goldman’s books! They’re as fit as a fiddle! Apparently, the President’s proposal to limit executive pay at government-assisted finance companies contained some sort of mysterious curative. No use trying to understand how it happened. It was just a miracle. Somehow, the mere prospect of downsizing to a paltry half-million-dollar salary produced the most miraculous cure since 1901, when the hopelessly paralyzed Gabriel Gargam emerged from the healing waters of Lourdes…walking on his two feet.”
Xanadu:
Homeless shelter and ski resort!
Maybe name it ‘Down and Out?’
Just look at U-6. The headline # is a stroke job.
“Get out the wrecking ball.”
The “stimulus” seems largely focused on construction. But Mike’s off-handed comment got me wondering, are not destruction jobs stimulating as well? First there is the abatement (when necessary for environmental issues), then the stripping and recycling of salvagable construction materials, then the demolition itself, and then the remediation of the site and its restoration to greenfield status.
I suspect it produces greater bang for the buck, both in environmental improvement, asthetic improvement, crime reduction, job creation, etc. than does construction. It also reduces the supply of substandard or abandoned structures. Just a thought.
(86) BC –
“Nothing new here, we said the same from day 1.”
I know, but I sure like having Elizabeth Warren around. From what I have seen so far, she does speak her mind
With New York unemployment benefits topping out at $405 it’s hard to see how people can keep a roof over their head long enough to find another job, especially in this market.
xanadu ,, just make it a close out mall.
or better perhaps a foreign consulate
http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/haque/2009/01/davos_discussing_a_depression.html
From some Harvard Business folk…
20th Century growth was dumb..dumb is unsustainable.
The Smart Growth Manifesto
“Think China’s gonna save the world? Think again: It’s economically productive, but it’s far from economically creative. Smart growth is creative – not merely productive.”
U.S. lost 598,000 jobs in January, most since December 1974. Unemployment rate rises to 7.6%. More soon…
(78) Gator..eating at the crack of 5:30….That sounds about right for 65. We dine at 6:00…
My mom, 85, gets there when the restaurants open at 4:00.
Shore 81 – Can’t go any earlier. That’s when they open for dinner. We thought we’d eat early and then go see a movie. Gotta multi-task to maximize the value of Lil Gator’s late night at school.
Of course now I am going to see a chick flick, and Stu is playing poker with the guys. I am a VERY good wife!
I always thought the early bird gets the worm.
Real #’s;
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm
Nonfarm payrolls fell 598,000 in January. A loss of 540,000 jobs was expected. Manufacturing payrolls fell 207,000, which is more than the drop of 145,000 that was widely expected. December nonfarm payrolls were downwardly revised to reflect a drop of 577,000. December manufacturing payrolls were downwardly revised to reflect a loss of 162,000. Unemployment now stands at 7.6%, up from 7.2%. The consensus forecast pegged unemployment at 7.5% for January. Average hourly earnings during January were up 0.3% month-over-month, and up 3.9% year-over-year. Average hourly earnings were expected to increase 0.2% month-over-month, and 3.6% year-over-year. The prior readings were both upwardly revised to reflect an increase of 0.4% and 4.0%, respectively. Weekly work hours averaged 33.3 during January. That was in-line with the consensus.
“With New York unemployment benefits topping out at $405 ”
Yikes! And after taxes……
“Of course now I am going to see a chick flick, and Stu is playing poker with the guys. I am a VERY good wife!”
at 8:30 a.m.? You ARE early birds.
Yup, Stu. The early bird gets the worm and the HENRY gets shtupped.
Actually, that sounds like a SNL “film”: HENRY gets shtupped. The story of a taxpayer and his congress. (or his congress with congress).
Time to flogg the staff.
Shore 90 very good, now that is thinking outside the box.
prediction, Xanadu will become an indoor/outdoor flea market. Remember those? Most of them closed up in the go-go. They’ll be back. Little kiosks, cheap merch, everything off the books. Its all coming back.
Re 87 ms gs
MS books state results from writedowns, mostly in 2007, and selling part of itself to China and Japan. The US effect is negligible. Neither MS or GS wanted TARP money, why is it a surprise that they want to get rid of it now?
Barbra 107 That should be a fun place to visit. Packing that is.
=snip= Recession-battered employers eliminated 598,000 jobs in January, the most since the end of 1974, and catapulted the unemployment rate to 7.6 percent.
The grim figures were further proof that the nation’s job climate is deteriorating at an alarming clip with no end in sight. =snip=
hehehe…they said grim
sl
109.
stay away from the egg and sausage sandwiches. That is all.
every big Flea has the Five Points guy. The tyrant, enforcer, aka the boss without all that human resources mumbo jumbo gunking up operations.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Jan. factory payrolls fall 207,000, most in 26 years
U.S. Jan employment rate highest since Sept. 1992
U.S. benchmark revision lowers Dec. payroll count by 311,000
U.S. Jan. unemployment rate higher than 7.5% expected
U.S. Jan. nonfarm payrolls worse than 525,000 loss expected
U.S. Jan. unemployment rate rises to 7.6% from 7.2%
U.S. Jan. nonfarm payrolls fall 598,000, most in 34 years
[19] spam
That’s a haul for me, but it is a Sat. so I will try to show if at all possible.
Then you and the young Mr. Spam can tell me what I’m doing wrong, vis a vis the “Nompound” (which really is a timeshare with farming, sorry to say).
BTW, I am copyrighting “Nompound” so hands off.
“Neither MS or GS wanted TARP money, why is it a surprise that they want to get rid of it now?”
[108]
No surprise at all. Just fancy shuffling. The IB’s are experts in this. Give back TARP and transfer the crap to the bad bank. If you give back $10B and then transfer $20B, bad bank, what’s the net effect regarding govt assistance?
Take a cash advance on a cc for 10K, pay back 5K to your first cc. Hey, cheers, you paid back 5K.
[107] barbara
Sounds like Broad Street in Newark. Not a chain store in sight, except for Starbucks and Modells. Always busy, but on paper, its an economic sinkhole since I doubt very many quarterly sales tax vouchers get mailed from there.
116. com
I used to love rummaging those places, but now that I have kids I’ve had to go legit for safety reasons. I liked West NY back in the early 90s. Also, the indian section of Jersey City. Still, I miss it. PA is pretty cool too and still safe but Adam’s town is a hike.
BC 115 It just keeps getting better & better. Tax payer screwed again. We are being sold out so bad it is almost comical.
[76] stu
I LOVE IT. But be prepared to get some grief from the good folks at Mastercard, or more specifically, their hired flacks.
Stu, make T shirts and sell them in some of those boutiques. I’d buy one.
Toyota losses mounting, YEA!!!! My 2009 prediction they will need a bail out is getting there!!!!
Bank of America big turn around today!! I was trying pick up their bonds this morning and one by one they were disappearing. Worst was a long term BAC bond priced at 61 cents on dollar disapeared as I was hitting buy only to reappear at 79. Someone knows something and we are going to get a big fat dead cat bounce the next two days.
spam, nom,
I requested the day off [we’ll see if I get it…] is it a kid friendly place or are we on the hook for kid coverage?
sl
[74] shore
It was from CNN Money/Fortune website. May be still there. I gotta get back to work as a future former citizen is looking for my memo on how bad the U.S. is gonna b1tch-slap him.
People who deal with snow worse than in NJ:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7874115.stm
“we are going to get a big fat dead cat bounce the next two days.’
John,
Manna from heaven.
#107 re: Xanadu
I am so looking forward to being head of the Xanadu ski patrol and working part time at the Orange Julius.
Pic…
http://travelpod.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/rtw_2006-20071158858180img_2954.jpg?w=413&h=550
Tiffany’s?? Wussies! If you’re coming out to west Jersey go to one of our biker bars. The dirtier, the better. I’d recommend Hoots in Riegelsville–I used to be able to walk there from my house. I’m sure you could get shooting lessons while you’re there, and maybe some good contacts for henchmen or whatever you need, and if anyone gets out of line, throw em in the Delaware!
Trenton circa May?
http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_11640384?source=most_viewed
Cindy (91)-
Hold your horses. From where I sit, it appears the following has happened:
1. Klink got a free pass to throw money wherever he saw fit, with no accountability at the time.
2. The firms that got the money don’t have to give it back.
3. The UST stonewalled Warren’s group until Klink was safely out the door.
I like Warren, too…but I now count her amongst the group (also includes O), who’ve been bum-rushed like a drunk on the 7 train.
at the end of the day, cities will survive like they always had. No compound in the woods for me. The economy will just go local, very very local. No more glam, no Sex and the City urban fairytale. Globalism will take the form of the central asian guy’s imports store. Trading stocks will be whatever falls off the back of the truck, you keep. It will all go underground again.
=snip= (from Cramer) “SKF shares go up. But that hasn’t been the case. SKF investors have actually lost money despite huge declines in the banks.” =snip= emphasis added by me.
that garbage from yesterday….
anectdatally, I know lotsa folks who have done quite nicely with SKF.
who is he shilling for?
sl
had = have
BC (99)-
15.4% seems about right.
BC Bob, 125
February 6, 2009 at 9:07 am
“we are going to get a big fat dead cat bounce the next two days.’
John, Manna from heaven.
Practically took the words out of my mouth…been praying for a bear market rally.
sl
15.4% explains a lot of the daytime break-ins that are happening in what used to be some very sleepy neighborhoods in my area.
what % of a statewide prop tax rebellion would it take to see it become effective, i.e., the populace heard and not penalized?
Thanks, Nom. I might suggest getting some upfront payment on that job. It could help withthe time spent on fees collected metrics later inthe year.
plume (114)-
I don’t think “Branch Davidian” is copyrighted, either…
Essex says:
February 6, 2009 at 5:43 am
Jamil….I agree in some ways…I would like to see us upgrade our electrical grid…and fix up roads….come on now…isn’t that worthwhile.
TROLL
I have to give Bank of America credit for just pure balls.
I had money wired INTO my checking account today and they charged me $12.
Time for a phone call….. :-P
DEAD CAT BOUNCE, looks who is up in premarket, The prez is coughing up cash come monday!!
BAC, +10%
C, +6%
WFC, +5%
JPM, +3%
ruggles (127)-
Riegelsville? Jeebus, we want everybody to get home…
Clotpoll says:
February 6, 2009 at 9:15 am
plume (114)- I don’t think “Branch Davidian” is copyrighted, either…
clot: isn’t that one of the boros of Branchburg?
Anyone here get a government coupon for Obama Kool’aid?
[48] sas,
I liked it better than any John story since I doubt anyone would make up a story about getting their butt kicked.
Shows you why we ginnies should be the only ones chasing italian women (who are hot by definition). Capisce?
139.
ChiFi
Good luck, I’m a premier account holder and all the freebies and perks that comes with being in a premier account was all taken away as of this month, according to a detailed mailing I got from BOA.
Amazing.
sl (134)-
Just another chance to take a long, deep drink from the trough.
Bear market rallies are the best. Like financial coke binges. The harder you party, the harder you crash.
142 – wait ’til they try to get from rt 78 west to rt 31 south.
rug (148)-
They can pit stop at Country Griddle and have a drink while they figure it out.
(129) Clot – I hear you. At least she is in print saying the numbers don’t work. That is more than most are saying.
Sounds like Volcker is getting tired of just sitting around…I wish more of these folks I still trust would speak their minds.
[143] chifi
Sorry, no interest in high walls or religious overtones. If someone wants to save their soul, there will be plenty of churches in the vicinity, I’m sure.
Besides, I don’t consider myself the Messiah, or any more versant with the All Mighty than the next guy (and probably a bit less). So no one should flock to the Nompound to find spiritual salvation (unless they find my bad jokes to be healing).
However, there will be target practice. Nothing religious about that, but if it helps you get your jollies, by all means.
Someone sent one of those MAXINE cartoons to my InBox….
BAIL ‘EM OUT?
Hell, back in 1990, the Government seized the Mustang Ranch brothel in Nevada for tax evasion and, as required by law, tried to run it. They failed, and it closed.
Now we are trusting the economy of our country and the banking system to the same nit-wits who couldn’t make money running a whore house and selling whiskey!
clot, try to contain your anger
http://www.nypost.com/seven/02062009/business/home_loan_assist_153811.htm
“Mo Mod” is an algorithmic mortgage processing program that can rewrite up to 500,000 loans a month, and will be a major part of Treasury’s plan to help repair tattered bank balance sheets.
The 21-day “Mo Mod” program works by structuring a new mortgage that more accurately reflects a home’s worth so that a troubled borrower no longer owes more on their home than the property is worth.
“Anyone here get a government coupon for O’bama Kool’aid?”
Is that for the new “Catastrophe Flavor?”
[136] barbara,
That is a bottom-up process, but if just a few politicians get their butts handed to them, the rest will take notice. In NJ, it would probably take a few dozen towns turning out their elected officials and replacing them with anti-tax slates. It will also take some assemblymen being replaced for the same reasons, particularly in swing areas where the local dems could be tossed in favor of anti-tax Reps.
In PA a few years ago, local anger at the judiciary resulted in the unthinkable—a supreme court judge was voted off the bench, and another nearly so. That sent shock waves through Harrisburg. So it doesn’t take much to get noticed, and the best part is that momentum can build very quickly once you get some victories.
FWIW, an initiative to change the state constitution to bar the state from imposing ad valorem taxes on real property or personal property would be another 15-inch shell across the bow. Moving to ban taxes a state doesn’t yet impose sends a strong signal that government simply has no credibility.
“The “Mo Mod” platform relies on proprietary technology”
Yikes [153],
More Monte Carlo simulations? Why would anybody pay, [unless they had substantial equity] their mortgage. Sounds like an incentive to be 60-90 days late on your payment.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=15uB_6nyslE
Clot,
According to Peter Schiff othe price of a good watchdog is going up. He’s getting a German Shepard.
I prefer Pitbulls and a baretta.
155.
Nom,
Do you know of any grassroots initiatives in NJ to get the state constitution changed? I’d gladly show up, pay up and vote up.
[152] chi
“Government seized the Mustang Ranch brothel in Nevada for tax evasion and, as required by law, tried to run it. They failed, and it closed.”
When you can’t run a business that should run itself, that’s downright scary.
HeHeHe I am partial to the armageddon punch myself.
Mo Mod will save the day O sh*t we are in deep. Colossus: The Forbin Project.
Nom, 159 “Government seized the Mustang Ranch brothel in Nevada for tax evasion and, as required by law, tried to run it. They failed, and it closed.”
When you can’t run a business that should run itself, that’s downright scary.
Maybe they were eating their way throught the inventory like diabetics in an ice cream shop?
sl
“Government seized the Mustang Ranch brothel in Nevada for tax evasion and, as required by law, tried to run it. They failed, and it closed.”
When you can’t run a business that should run itself, that’s downright scary.
I think the govt probably depleted their own assets.
Chasing hot italian women are dangerous. I once dated John Gotti’s neice and it did not end too well, other than one of his other nieces to get back at me made love on the hood of my 450sl out in the hamptons which cracked the paint on my hood and cause a small indent I got out alive. I still have the car in my garage and never fixed the dent as it is a lesson to be learned. My love of EVOO almost got me DEAD. Another thing I learned is sit at an Italians girls house at Christmas two years in a row with no ring you are lucky to be alive.
“Government seized the Mustang Ranch brothel in Nevada for tax evasion and, as required by law, tried to run it. They failed, and it closed.”
When you can’t run a business that should run itself, that’s downright scary.
And the govt is going to take over our banks. Foreboding…
here is what i read from today’s market reaction: unemployment rate reached 7.6%, 0.1% worse than anticipated. it means businesses accelarated their adjustments to new environment and it means we will hit the bottom sooner than anticipated and it means recession will end by Q1 as I predicted. the market reacted very positively so far.
10 year yield is approaching 3%, which I predicted when it was 2% at the end of 2008.
By the way, where was chinese riots? Mike M said it should have happened by the end of January.
re#153 – “Mo-Mod” Same old MOD in a BOX from the FDIC that was proposed last year as a Bill in Congress and it did not get any traction. Google the FDIC & Mo-Mod * IndyMac to see how well that worked with IndyMac, I believe over 50% of the Indymac mods have defaulted again.
Latest Legislation….
H.R. 37, The Systematic Foreclosure Prevention and Mortgage Modification Act.
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c110:H.R.7326:
Argument against this bill is if they don’t know the true underlying value because NO physical appraisal of each property was performed, then how can they have an accurate and current mark to market value on the property?
My love of EVOO – Are you Rachel Ray?
Chasing hot italian women are dangerous. I once dated John Gotti’s neice
Uh-oh, here come the mob stories… Cue Godfather theme
[158] barbara, [157] make,
Barbara, I don’t. Perhaps its time to start one.
Make (and Barbara). Another initiative that would fire a shot across Trenton’s bow, and one that is sure to get lots of press and cause angst in Trenton, would be one to change NJ to a “shall issue” state when it comes to carry permits. That puts politicians in a jam, especially if there is already a good media blitz about dems and judges refusing to let NJers protect themselves, since they will be hard pressed to vote against their resident’s own safety and security. Would you want to be the politician to tell residents that, in the words of one judge “you aren’t entitled to any more protection than the next person”? Further, if a larger segment of the population applied for carry permits, that increases the risk to the pols; all it takes is ads with high profile crimes committed against folks that were denied permits, juxtaposed against the politician’s vote that prevented that person from protecting themself, and you have a Willie Horton power ad.
Presently, an organized effort can also raise hell with any judges that won’t grant permits under the current law by clogging the courts with applications, motions and appeals, and complaints to the state about their fitness. That requires more organization though.
[168] hard
Darn. My bad. I should have known John would have a story.
What if the Fed purchased $92 billion worth of MBS and nobody cared?
From HousingWire:
Fed Agency MBS Purchases Total $92 Billion
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Thursday announced it had purchased another $22.3 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities in the week ending Feb. 4, an increase from the $16.8 billion purchased the week before. The new purchases bring the Fed’s total to $91.7, nearly one fifth of its total $500 billion purchasing power.
Friking people don’t pay their rents. 6 people were short and one paid only 50%.
Since I always collect, 2 tennats haven’t been home and haven’t returned calls since the first.
My rent roll is short a little over 3K this month.
#169 – Find me a lawyer that will work pro bono and I’ll be the guinea pig.
10:04 AM Eastern Standard Time, 02/06/2009 (MidnightTrader) — Financial stocks including Bank of America (BAC) are rallying out of the gate as the Street looks ahead to Monday, when Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is expected to disclose the administration’s plans to address still-ailing financial institutions. The creation of a “bad bank” to warehouse bad loans is widely expected.
The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) is up 3.9% in early trading. Bank of America (BAC) shares are rallying 15.5% to $5.59 after being battered in recent days due to speculation about a possible nationalization.
Other major money-center banks:
WFC, +9.7%
JPM, +6.2%
C, +9.6%
DB, +6.7%
STT, +9.4%
What if the Fed purchased $92 billion worth of MBS and nobody cared?
If market doesn’t care about $350 billion dumped into TARP, who the heck cares about $92 billion.
from the seeking alpha chart
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/2/5/saupload_shiller_house_price_graph.png.png
wonder how far we overshoot on the down side????
155 Nom – “In NJ, it would probably take a few dozen towns turning out their elected officials and replacing them with anti-tax slates. It will also take some assemblymen being replaced for the same reasons, particularly in swing areas where the local dems could be tossed in favor of anti-tax Reps.”
All the NJ GOP needs to do is put up some socially moderate, fiscally conservative candidates and it could happen.
What if the Fed purchased $92 billion worth of MBS and nobody cared?
Grim,
Easy. They’ll buy more next week.
MArc Faber discusses similarities between Bergage and Mugabe on morning squawk.
I love it. Got shiny?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29047443
Funny story about an Italian wedding I was at, a jewish kid out on LI knocked up one of the nieces and told my GF at the time, turns out she can’t tell her uncle cause first of all the uncle would disown her and second of all the kid would be dead. So the plan is to ask the other cousins who worked for John Jr. in the Shea wrecking yard to lean on him, well the girl mustards up the courage to tell the cousins the story right after dinner, the cousins look at watch and say look, the kids in Great Neck we got time to pick him up get him in the crusher in queeens and get back here for vienesse hour what do you want us to do. Well the girl is horrified and then the girls say forgetabout it I will give it one more try. The kid coughs up the abortion money next day and never knew how close he got to ending up in a trunk of a car getting crushed in queens.
re: #163 John you may not know it but you got a pass do to the fact that the Irish and Italians are allowed to “date” and inter-marry, generally there is no retribution from the men since they know their women are crazy anyway. Think Janice Soprano……
Anyone notice that Tim Geithner and Pret have never posted on this blog on the same day?
Actually, one irish guy married one of the aunts many years earlier and everyone was furious. He actually was a nice guy and everyone loved him. I got a pass as I was irish and catholic. But in that family, irish and italian is an interacial marriage.
I knew I was in too deep when I was dating her around a year and my buddies invited me out to Pastels in Brooklyn. Afterwords we went to Turquoise, which was a mobbed up wiseguy place. My stupid friends told the buddies in the bar that they know the guy who is dating John G’s niece, anyhow the biggest wise guy there is sitting with his foot out as I am going to the bathroom and I accidently stepped on it, the whole place goes silent till he realizes who I am and apologizes for his foot being in my way and buys me a drink. I go to my friend what up? Then I find out these idiots were bragging about me the week before and that guy was scared I would get him in trouble with John G. The power was nice, but that day I decided to get out and get out quick.
Nice! Glad that the bonuses are stimulating somebody..
Investment bankers racked up $100,000s in prostitution charges.
Wall Street CEOs, lawyers, bankers and media executives chalked up thousands of dollars in prostitution charges on their corporate credit cards — swiping their cards for $2,000 an hour prostitutes, according to a New York madam who pleaded guilty last year.
Kristin Davis, the madam in question, went public to ABC News this week; ABC will be broadcasting her interview Friday at 10 pm. Davis says she has a list of 9,800 clients, many of whom she says New York prosecutors deliberately avoided when taking her case, even though she offered them her annotated client list.
Among the names the network says it confirmed
* a vice president of NBC Universal (owned by General Electric)
* the part owner of a Major League Baseball team who “loves Kelsey”
* the CEO of one of the country’s largest private equity firms who met “Cameron” at the Peninsula Hotel
* a major New York real estate developer who, according to the list, “will come to the door wearing women’s panties”
* a partner at the Wall Street law firm Cravath Swaine Moore “looking for a party girl to come fully equipped” and spent a total of $20,000
* an investment banker from Lehman Brothers who saw “Kelsey and Keely together” and later saw “Aria and Skyler at the same time”
* an investment banker at JP Morgan Securities who “loves Brooke” and spent $41,600
* an investment banker at Goldman Sachs who “only wanted all-American girls” and spent $27,000
* a managing director from Merrill Lynch who saw “Lana” using the name “Nataly”
* a managing director from Deutsche Bank “who called about seeing Nataly again”
http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Wall_Street_CEOs_investment_bankers_charged_0206.html
“The 21-day “Mo Mod” program works by structuring a new mortgage that more accurately reflects a home’s worth so that a troubled borrower no longer owes more on their home than the property is worth.”
And this debt above and beyond the value goes where? And any future gains up to the value of the entire written-off portion of the loan goes where?
Uggghhhhh!
Five reasons not to buy a home this year
Chifi,
A diferent financial institution tried something like that with us recently. When we called to complain, they said, in essence, tough luck — this is our new way of doing things. So we asked to speak to a supervisor. The supervisor said, sorry we can’t do anything about it. So, we told them to liquidate the account (a few hundred grand) and we moved it out. They sure showed us — idiots.
Five reasons to buy a home this year
http://washingtontechnology.com/articles/2009/02/05/states-stagger-under-the-weight-of-budget-gaps.aspx?s=wtdaily_060209
Kettle 176 check out my #84.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/169781/Peter-Schiff-Stimulus-Bill-Will-Lead-to-%22Unmitigated-Disaster%22;_ylt=AkJQRouis71w5WEpsyN74rZl7ot4?tickers=%5Edji,%5Egspc,QQQQ,SPY,DIA,TLT,UDN&comment_start=41#comments
SG – #186, #188, is that what ‘balanced’ reporting means?
yikes (153)-
It’s a doomsday machine. Probably put together by the same dopes who brought you the Monte Carlo simulation.
mmmmmm maple syrup.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090206/od_uk_nm/oukoe_uk_newyork_odor
John (163)-
I’m assuming “EVOO” is extra-v1rgin olive oil…and if so, I now have a particularly nasty mental image that needs to be erased.
Now you know what his onions are getting juiced with…. EVOO.
ick…..pass-me-the-f’in-eye-bleach-in-a-hurry……
sl
re: #183 John – Like I said John you got a pass. I went out with one of these strange birds when I was young too. That summer down in Brick NJ at her family’s shore house the dad took me aside to show me his expensive gardening, imported statues and strange Japanese trees. I knew it was time to end the relationship when her dad went onto giving me a speech on planting roots and he used the phrase “if you get what I mean, capice.” which I interpreted as an order not a question.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9cdf7854-f3b6-11dd-9c4b-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
The US economy is suffering its steepest downturn since at least the 1970s and could descend into a depression, Jeff Immelt, General Electric’s chief executive, warned on Thursday.
They’re starting playing around with the D word. I’m thinking he wants to be TARPED! He could be telling the truth.
“Change” has been cancelled for another 4 years, minimum
move along now, nothing to see here
GE the Bank that makes appliances and generators.
Sas says: “This person spared me that night.
why? I have my suspcions.”
sas, keep em coming. your whole persona is extremely entertaining and really does make my day on many occasions. perhaps its because i cant tell if you are the real deal or a slightly dillusional poser. either way, i dont want to know as it would kill the whole thing for me and neither answer would make you any less likeable anyway. one thing i still cant figure out, for someone as stealthy as yourself, why choose ‘sas’ as your handle… i would think that someone who operates in the shadows of the covert and secretive might choose something a little less conspicuous. whenever reading your posts, i keep getting that same dubious feeling as when my parents used the same wrapping paper as santa claus.
btw, i am half kidding, all due respect to you or any other soldier or combat vet of course…
Barbara
“prediction, Xanadu will become an indoor/outdoor flea market”
in South Jersey, they never left!!! Berlin Farmer’s Market is still going strong, though the outdoor/weekend market is watered down compared to the 80’s & 90’s scene i remember with old scary molester-looking guys hawking x-rated VHS/Beta tapes and their huge collections of “reading material” now it’s a bunch of crap made in China
Shore Guy says:
February 6, 2009 at 10:29 am
Chifi, A diferent financial institution tried something like that with us recently. When we called to complain, they said, in essence, tough luck — this is our new way of doing things. So we asked to speak to a supervisor. The supervisor said, sorry we can’t do anything about it. So, we told them to liquidate the account (a few hundred grand) and we moved it out. They sure showed us — idiots.
Shore: I called BOA about 20 minutes ago. A little hangling and then she reversed it “this one time” , but “realize that this charge is a standing policy of the bank that is in force”.
She asked me if there was anything else that she could do? I told her that if she saw Ken Lewis, make sure to let him know he is a bozo. She didn’t suppress her laugh…..
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/05/AR2009020502766_pf.html
The Fierce Urgency of Pork
By Charles Krauthammer
Friday, February 6, 2009; A17
“A failure to act, and act now, will turn crisis into a catastrophe.”
— President Obama, Feb. 4.
Catastrophe, mind you. So much for the president who in his inaugural address two weeks earlier declared “we have chosen hope over fear.” Until, that is, you need fear to pass a bill.
And so much for the promise to banish the money changers and influence peddlers from the temple. An ostentatious executive order banning lobbyists was immediately followed by the nomination of at least a dozen current or former lobbyists to high position. Followed by a Treasury secretary who allegedly couldn’t understand the payroll tax provisions in his 1040. Followed by Tom Daschle, who had to fall on his sword according to the new Washington rule that no Cabinet can have more than one tax delinquent.
The Daschle affair was more serious because his offense involved more than taxes. As Michael Kinsley once observed, in Washington the real scandal isn’t what’s illegal, but what’s legal. Not paying taxes is one thing. But what made this case intolerable was the perfectly legal dealings that amassed Daschle $5.2 million in just two years.
He’d been getting $1 million per year from a law firm. But he’s not a lawyer, nor a registered lobbyist. You don’t get paid this kind of money to instruct partners on the Senate markup process. You get it for picking up the phone and peddling influence.
At least Tim Geithner, the tax-challenged Treasury secretary, had been working for years as a humble international civil servant earning non-stratospheric wages. Daschle, who had made another cool million a year (plus chauffeur and Caddy) for unspecified services to a pal’s private equity firm, represented everything Obama said he’d come to Washington to upend.
And yet more damaging to Obama’s image than all the hypocrisies in the appointment process is his signature bill: the stimulus package. He inexplicably delegated the writing to Nancy Pelosi and the barons of the House. The product, which inevitably carries Obama’s name, was not just bad, not just flawed, but a legislative abomination.
#165 bi: the stock market is up today,and you a e back.
How come you are only here when the market is up?
Please do not read anything;its painful.
mustard
you gotta admit, that one’s up there, too. Top ten, at least.
“I told her that if she saw Ken Lewis, make sure to let him know he is a bozo.”
Chi,
I know a few traders in their Green Monster office. He’s hated worse than the Evil Empire.
bc bob says: “Just look at U-6.”
Is today’s u-6 comparable apples to apples (no pun) with the 1933 level of 25%?
“#165 bi: the stock market is up today,and you a e back.”
Speaking of, if the yellow metal goes up to 1,500 and then back to $600, will Bi’s call be on target? Yes, if he/she is short and remains/adds on to the short position, while it is pinning his/her #ss to the wall.
veto [208],
The bridge is being built.
Grim – Or someone with GSMLS access. Is the address for 2587949 16 Stonehouse in Bloomfield (with a prestigious GR mailing address)? GSMLS lists it as a short sale. I am guessing at the address because the assessment and year built data matches to what is in the Monmouth County tax DB.
It is short at 449k, yet if this is the right house, it was bought in 1995 for $265k. I guess the owners mortgaged it to move on up to their new digs on Forest Ave in GR.
EVOO is good when you are dealing with “Italian Cherries”.
I was pre-approved for a mortgage this week. I spoke to 3 banks and each one said u need at least 10% down on Condo’s these days due to uncertain values & FHA wont do loans on many condo developments. Single Family homes seem the way to go. Anyone else familiar with this? ThankS!
I am so glad I have not yet eaten lunch.
“what % of a statewide prop tax rebellion would it take to see it become effective, i.e., the populace heard and not penalized?”
0%. California already witnessed the collapse of their system because people simply had no money to pay their property taxes.
Lets rock and roll,
MI MARSHALL & ILSLEY CORP (NEW)
Last [Tick] 5.02[ + ]
Change 1.20
% Change 31.41%
For all you fcuking psychotic idiots….it’s out there, but has not been widely publicized…..
http://www.proshares.com/funds/ugl.html
Re Unemployment
here are 2 charts:
http://tinyurl.com/c3wsho
notice that the difference between U3 (official unemployment) and U6 (real unemployment) appears to be directly proportional to the level of unemployment. i.e. as unemployment increase so does the difference between U3 and U6
this is shown in chart (U-6 Vs U-3 Difference)
“For all you fcuking psychotic idiots”
Chi [217],
Just for slackers. Try futures; 4K controls 90K.
“fcuking psychotic idiot”
HMM. Last time I was called an idiot, my short broke the buck. No, not mm’s.
want the market to soar? hell, every company just start firing people.
market LOVES that.
Bi 166
By the way, where was chinese riots? Mike M said it should have happened by the end of January.
You apparently havent been paying attention, try reading looking at international news
By Bi.
FHA wont do loans on many condo developments
Why not and which ones?
chi [217],
By the way, hopefully there is a significant sell off. I will then load my IRA into that psychotic trade.
Grim,
Call the lead analyst on the report, and ask him/her to email you a copy.
Usually, the firms will give you their hard copy reports. If it’s in print, the report has already been through compliance and approved for distribution to the public.
They may direct you to PR, but then just tell them that you publish a housing blog on the NYC/NJ metro area.
BC Bob says:
February 6, 2009 at 11:57 am
chi [217],
By the way, hopefully there is a significant sell off. I will then load my IRA into that psychotic trade.
Bost: glad to be of service….
fact stranger than fiction….
http://www.nypost.com/seven/02062009/news/worldnews/putins_45k_abba_obsession_153870.htm
Chi [227],
Not enough leverage.
SRS holding up pretty well
#163
“Another thing I learned is sit at an Italians girls house at Christmas two years in a row with no ring you are lucky to be alive.”
pretty funny– I got through year 2, but not year 3 w/o popping the question with my wife
#181
“John you may not know it but you got a pass do to the fact that the Irish and Italians are allowed to “date” and inter-marry, generally there is no retribution from the men since they know their women are crazy anyway”
this is hilarious
BAC 5.98, +1.14, +23.6%) expects to pay back U.S. Treasury relief funds within the next three years, and “categorically” does not need further government funding, Chief Executive Ken Lewis told CNBC’s Maria Bartiromo in a televised interview Friday. Bank of America has received up to $45 billion in funds from the Trouble Asset Relief Program. Lewis also told CNBC the bank will not change operations based upon the relief funds, but that he does not feel good about the $500,000 salary cap imposed by President Barack Obama for firms receiving relief funds. Lewis said he knows of no government officials who have talked about nationalizing the bank, that he has no “long-term” regrets about buying Merrill Lynch, and that mortgage refinancing has been “on fire” in January at the bank’s recently acquired mortgage vendor Countrywide.
BC says: “The bridge is being built.”
BC, I was wondering if todays u-6 methodology is the same as the unemployment methodology they used 80 years ago?
Veto,
You said:
Is today’s u-6 comparable apples to apples (no pun) with the 1933 level of 25%?
I’ve wondered about that, too, because in 1933 men were seen as the bread winners. Were they counting everyone who had lost a job, or just the men who headed up households?
If women lost jobs in factories or as waitresses was that included in the count, or was that seen as being “pin money”?
Considering spinster school marm and nun were the top two professions for women in the 20’s it is safe to say they had pretty good job security.
Maybe the mention of a half-million cap on executive salaries is a clever way to get the banks and investment banks to return the TARP money ASAP? :)
My local savings bank got approved for TARP funds, and decided to decline. They gave their reasons in their 4th quarter report. They were concerned that the terms and conditions weren’t clear, and could be changed in the future. Also, they were concerned about shareholder dilution.
interesting post from a Greenwich, CT blog:
**************
I just spent a fascinating time with a guy I know who shared some loan data with me on who owes what on which spec houses in town.Things are really getting interesting. There are a ton of spec houses out there with over-due mortgages in amounts that greatly exceed what the house is worth…
The trouble with trying to get one of these buildings on the cheap is that, according to my friend, so many of their loans are cross-collateralized with other projects. Drop the price on one and the entire house of cards comes down. So the builders persist in clinging to their high asking price, knowing that they’ve signed personal guarantees that will wipe them out if everything due is called, and unable to unwind the mess one string at a time. Their bankers had better get busy making that untangling possible.
One doomsday scenario that I hope won’t happen: there are some very well financed vultures out there considering buying entire portfolios of bad loans from banks. They’d then foreclose on, say, 15 -20 spec homes and auction them off to the highest bidders.
http://christopherfountain.wordpress.com/
The Daily Municipal Comment February 6, 2009 by Michael E. Lane
For the thirteenth straight month, the jobs creation number was anything but that. The loss of almost 600,000 jobs in January, more than the street estimates, helped push unemployment to 7.6%. The dismal numbers underscore the weakness of the economy as Washington debates the shape of a stimulus package. Municipals rallied the past week. The Bond Buyer’s 20-Bond G.O. Index fell 20 basis points, to 4.96%, from the previous week’s yield of 5.16%. This is the lowest the yield has been since mid-September, 2008, and reflects continued retail and institutional demand, the manageable new issue calendar, and the flight to safety as investors flee riskier investments.
Scribe, Veto
This may or may not answer your question
Specific concepts of the labor force, employment, and unemployment were developed in the later stages of the Depression of the 1930s. Before the 1930s, aside from attempts in some of the decennial censuses, no direct measurements were made of the number of jobless persons. Mass unemployment in the early 1930s increased the need for statistics, and widely conflicting estimates based on a variety of indirect techniques began to appear. Dissatisfied with these methods, many research groups, as well as State and municipal governments, began experimenting with direct surveys or samples of the population. In these surveys, an attempt was made to classify the population as employed, unemployed, or out of the labor force by means of a series of questions addressed to each individual. In most of the surveys, the employed were defined as persons with occupations (“gainful workers”), and the unemployed were defined as those who were not working but were “willing and able to work.” These concepts did not meet the standards of objectivity that many technicians felt were necessary to measure either the level of unemployment at a point in time or changes over time. Counts of gainful workers did not have a current dimension, and the criterion “willing and able to work,” when applied in specific situations, appeared to be too intangible and too dependent upon the interpretation and attitude of the persons being interviewed.
http://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/homch1_a.htm
“My love of EVOO almost got me DEAD.”
You should date some Greek or Middle Eastern girls then.
chi fi –
Just curious … how much liquid cash are you telling your clients to have in the event of job loss or whatever?
6 months LIVING expenses?
12 months?
veto [234],
Good question. That entails a little research. That said, U-6 is much closer than the headline #.
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/54
John,
A lot of women had factory jobs, worked in stores, or were waitresses or domestics. Poorly paid.
By the way, my brother’s church fired their one and only nun. They had a deficit of $60,000, and the nun had a salary of $60,000.
The nun had to go out and find another position in another parish.
No one is safe these days!
Tonto, Hi-Yo is a teenager.
nuns are salaried?
#246 skeptic: they get a very small salary for spending money, when I was a kid it was about $25 a week.
“when I was a kid it was about $25 a week.”
3b,
About what I made when I was delivering newspapers. Today, newspapers are delivered in hummers.
I like my girls with only one set of hairy lips.
Ben says:
February 6, 2009 at 12:33 pm
“My love of EVOO almost got me DEAD.”
You should date some Greek or Middle Eastern girls then.
Exactly why do you need any money liquid? Just live off your interest income. That is how we roll.
yikes says:
February 6, 2009 at 12:34 pm
chi fi –
Just curious … how much liquid cash are you telling your clients to have in the event of job loss or whatever?
6 months LIVING expenses?
12 months?
#248 BC Bob:Today, newspapers are delivered in hummers.
Have you know compassion for these former BSD’s.
It is not their fault, don’t you know that (sarcasm off).
newsday pays newpaper carriers 100K a year. don’t hate the playas.
“newsday pays newpaper carriers 100K a year”
A company car also?
Why, skep, do you think they have more non-exempt type duties?
[207] bc
Evil Empire. That’s a lot of hate.
Reminds me of another episode of More Jobs I Am Glad I Never Got.
A few years back, I was at a banking conf. in the district and I met a guy from Fleet. He sounded me out about returning to Boston and working in their legal dept. I told him I was interested.
Two days later, BoA announced the Fleet purchase. Needless to say, that job offer never materialized.
Am I sad about it today? What do you think?
This makes the Banks I Nearly Got Jobs With List out to be (1) Bank of America, (2) E-trade Bank, (3) Lehman Bank.
Sometimes there’s something to be said for not quite good enough.
just never thought that nuns got paychecks. I assumed that maybe they had some type of petty cash they could access for getting necessities. but of course I do not begrudge them their $25 a week
skeptic
“just never thought that nuns got paychecks. I assumed that maybe they had some type of petty cash they could access for getting necessities. but of course I do not begrudge them their $25 a week”
I don’t even want to know how much money the church has. My girlfriend and I were looking to get married in the Catholic church this year and I was told I was not a member of my own parish because I wasn’t donating money every week. I told them I was still a student and don’t have any money. They basically told me, 3 years of donations before you can get married. Needless to say, I think I’ve been excommunicated. Not that I care. I’ll probably spend less at some chapel.
Nom,
Going forward, just short your almost list.
60k for a nun?????
that can’t be right. What order, most take a vow of poverty. expenses are covered and they get a stipend, but nowhere near 60k
Q: Anyone know whether there has been a permanent change at Bloomberg Radio? It appears that all the regular shows have been yanked and they are just running a simulcast of the audio from TV…..
FYI – I heard a couple of days ago that Bloomberg TV & Radio lost $20M, so maybe a cut was in the works…
FYI – I heard a couple of days ago that Bloomberg TV & Radio lost $20M, so maybe a cut was in the works…
Interesting… Rep. Jim Cooper of Ten., one of the “Blue Dog” dems who voted against the stimulus, as quoted in the WSJ:
“Well, I probably shouldn’t tell you this, but I actually got some quiet encouragement from the Obama folks for what I’m doing [i.e., voting against the bill],” Rep. Cooper told the Liberadio network. “They know it’s a messy bill and they wanted a clean bill. Now, I got in terrible trouble with our [Democratic House] leadership because they don’t care what’s in the bill, they just want it passed and they want it to be unanimous. They don’t mind the partisan fighting ’cause that’s what they are used to. In fact, they’re really good at it. And they’re a little bit worried about what a postpartisan future might look like — if members actually had to read the bills and figure out whether they are any good or not. We’re just told how to vote. We’re treated like mushrooms most of the time. . . .”
“Clot,
According to Peter Schiff othe price of a good watchdog is going up. He’s getting a German Shepard.
I prefer Pitbulls and a baretta.”
Make, you are confusing watch dog with guard dog. A good watch dog is one who alerts you to the presence of a stranger. A good guard dog is one that is willing to defend the property. The ultimate watch dog is a Beagle because they were bread to howl whenever they found something. They start howling at you from miles away. Problem is, they make friends with anyone in 2 seconds. So they aren’t much of a guard dog. You’d probably be better off getting 2 dogs. A beagle, and maybe a German Sheperd.
What order, most take a vow of poverty. expenses are covered and they get a stipend, but nowhere near 60k
Order of the Immaculate Dressers….
or
Divine Sisterhood of Preta Porter….
this really just writes itself.
Tucked deep in the bowels of Paterson used to be the hollowed out shell of a chapel that was later turned into a soda shop, and then sat vacant for at least two dozen years.
No sign atop the door, but whenever I think of that place, I imagine the sign might have read, “Our Lady of Perpetual Fizz”.
Evoo? Dare I ask wht this is?
Chifi
Wednesday, Feb 04
Bloomberg Cuts 100 From Radio/TV Division
bloomberg_2-4.bmpAs first reported by two U.K. newspapers, TVNewser confirms Bloomberg is cutting 100 jobs in the radio and television groups. Forty-five from the New York newsroom.
sl
“We have eliminated around 100 positions in the U.S. and are considering some additional redundancies in Europe, UK and Japan, specifically in radio and television,” Bloomberg’s head of PR, Judith Czelusniak, tells TVNewser. “We’re reorganizing the radio and TV operation into an English-language global 24/7 business network.”
Despite the cuts in TV/Radio, Bloomberg is “hiring around 1,000 employees this year in print news, product development, sales and customer service.”
The major shake-up comes less than four months after Bloomberg’s new CEO, Andy Lack, took over the network. “The business television viewer needs a universal perspective that is not now available on any financial network — and only Bloomberg has all the pieces,” says Czelusniak. “Andy is here to put those pieces together into a global network.”
Yesterday TVNewser reported Mike Schneider had been let go from the network and his 10pmET show “Night Talk” canceled. That followed the departure of Bloomberg TV (U.S.) managing editor John Meehan last month.
from the WSJ re: stagflation. question whether no one in the White House has considered stagflation or whether they think it is not that big of a problem under the circumstances?
*******
The Fed’s outpouring of dollar liquidity after the September crash replaced the liquidity lost by the financial sector and has so far caused no significant uptick in consumer prices. But the worry lies in what will happen next.
Even when the economy and the securities markets are sluggish, the Fed’s financing of big federal deficits can be inflationary. We learned that in the late 1970s, when the Fed’s deficit financing sent the CPI up to an annual rate of almost 15%. That confounded the Keynesian theorists who believed then, as now, that federal spending “stimulus” would restore economic health.
Inflation is the product of the demand for money as well as of the supply. And if the Fed finances federal deficits in a moribund economy, it can create more money than the economy can use. The result is “stagflation,” a term coined to describe the 1970s experience. As the global economy slows and Congress relies more on the Fed to finance a huge deficit, there is a very real danger of a return of stagflation. I wonder why no one in Congress or the O-bama administration has thought of that as a potential consequence of their stimulus package.
Shore: Extra Virgin Olive Oil
sl
“The trouble with trying to get one of these buildings on the cheap is that, according to my friend, so many of their loans are cross-collateralized with other projects. Drop the price on one and the entire house of cards comes down. So the builders persist in clinging to their high asking price, knowing that they’ve signed personal guarantees that will wipe them out if everything due is called, and unable to unwind the mess one string at a time. ”
THIS must explain what I see on Ocean Avenue. In both Spring Lake and up into Belmar and even Bradley, there are homes and condos that were built on spec (One, as I recall is or was in the $12mm asking range, and was a teardown of a perfectly grand oceanfront house) and have been been empty for YEARS. I once met a banker who lent the money to build one of the Spring Lake homes and even then, must be 3 years ago, he said the builder was over his head and paying something like $15,000 a month (it may have been more) to finance the construction loan.
If one is stuck paying for the house, one might as well move into it.
I was surprised at the nun salary bit, too, but apparently, the occupation of nun is different now from what it was when I was a kid, and they had a whole convent full of nuns teaching at the local Catholic school.
Apparently, nuns are more independent these days – don’t necessarily live in convents. The nun who got fired from my brother’s church found another part-time position at another church, and is being paid for it. She’s old enough to retire, but wants to go on working.
Her role at the church was social work.
sl,
Okay. But they were not talking salad/cooking oil, right? More euphemism I take it.
New thread, move it up.
Don’t have sex with Olive Oil. Popeye will be pissed.
I vote for Hunterdon County. I prefer a bucolic setting versus some damn concrete jungle like Bergen County.
I can’t wait to see if Dr. Foulmouth (Still_Looking) will cuss out sas and Kettle for trying to scare the hell out of everyone. I can’t wait to see if Clotpoll brings his flea bitten mangy sniveling dog. What I really don’t want to see is 3b showing up with his damn corncob and claiming that that’s his damn date.
I tell you, there’s some real characters on this blog. I’m one of the few sane ones who hang around here.
I would do either GTG (Hunterdon or Bergen). The calendar is clear for March 7th surprisingly.
One doomsday scenario that I hope won’t happen: there are some very well financed vultures out there considering buying entire portfolios of bad loans from banks. They’d then foreclose on, say, 15 -20 spec homes and auction them off to the highest bidders.
how would they possibly make money on this?
Ben,
Get out of the suburbs and find a nice metropolitan parish with declining numbers and the tone changes. If the suburban parish has a school, they will stop short of putting a 750 FICO score limit in place to be a parishioner.
I went for downtown Jersey City.
with today’s ws rally,, giddy on bloomberg falling overthemselves,,,
saying that BO stimulus will slove everything..
all clear signals?