Not a Friday afternoon without a comp killer and a bank failure.
Today’s comp killer comes to us from prestigious Upper Montclair, NJ.
This property was acquired by the prior owner during the very frothy Summer 2005 market, in fact, this property was purchased right around the time that the Northern New Jersey Real Estate Bubble Blog (whew!) was founded.
This 3 bedroom, 2 bath beauty was purchased in July of 2005 for what now seems like a completely outrageous sum, $709,000. In bubble market style, the “winning bidder” paid more than $50,000 over asking. Losing bidder would probably be a more accurate description. This kind of overbidding was the norm in 2005. I’ve told the story here before, so I won’t repeat, but I was a bidder on a $500k property that summer that ended up selling for $700k. You know, this very well have been me.
Anyhow, the property came back on the market less than a year later for $774,900. Huh? Yeah, it sat for 70 days before it was withdrawn. They cut the price to $699k, but it didn’t do any good. Flip gone flop? Please tell me the owners didn’t expect a $70,000 bonus for house sitting through the winter.
Seller tried the same game again in 2007, came on the market in March for $639,000. Surprising right? Priced at a loss in 2007 and it didn’t sell. 83 days later it was withdrawn.
Fast forward, 2008, came on the market AGAIN in April. List price was now $599,000, an aggressive price that would leave the seller taking a loss of approximately $130,000. It went under contract this past December, and the closing took place in late January.
The sale price?
$528,110
A loss of more than $200,000 once you factor in the commission! The sale price was 25% below the 2005 purchase price. I thought prices didn’t go down in Upper Montclair?
So much for Montclair real estate!
Airing on CNBC Thursday February 12th at 8:00PM and again at 12 midnight:
THE HOUSE OF CARDS
CNBC presents the definitive report on the defining story of our time. CNBC correspondent David Faber investigates the origins of the global economic crisis, with first person accounts from home buyers, mortgage brokers, investment bankers and investors – most of whom let greed blind them, leading to the greatest financial collapse since the Great Depression.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28892719/
10 year yield nearing the 3 handle, can’t be good for mortgage rates.
SRS is sending out an SOS!!!
It’s done it before. Always bounces back John. Commercial REITS will die in this environment.
From the Jersey Journal:
Like other ‘boomtowns,’ Hoboken’s entering an economic slowdown
BusinessWeek writes that low interest rates and easy mortgages have caused real estate in many U.S. towns to boom, as has easy access to transportation or proximity to big cities — they include Hoboken on that list. But the housing collapse and the economic free-fall “have forced many of the America’s fastest-growing towns to adapt to the new reality of falling home prices and rising unemployment.”
Hoboken, N.J., located across the Hudson River from New York City and filled with young professionals who worked at Citibank, Morgan Stanley, and other now-struggling Manhattan financial firms, is entering an economic slowdown. But Hoboken’s easy access to the city by train, bus, and ferry will always remain appealing.
How is Hoboken different than other “boomtowns” mentioned in that article? Part of Hoboken’s financial pain was self-inflicted by local government — that 47% property tax hike comes at a particularly bad time when homes values are depreciating and people are getting laid off.
oh, that darn 47% property tax…
hike…
was that 47% hike all in one year?
“10 year yield nearing the 3 handle, can’t be good for mortgage rates.”
Nor for those that piled into the 10 year in December. Flight to quality?
Nancy boys scared cats piled into 10 years in December, booo hooo, zero down subprime sludge who are fiancing the whole thing cry about high interest rates, boooo hoooo. For the rest of the world who is putting down 40-60 percent higher rates are a good thing as it thins the pools of unqualified buyers bidding against you for the house.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — A new program to try to get credit flowing for small business and consumers is on track to start later in February, the Federal Reserve said Friday. The central bank released additional terms and conditions of the facility, called the term-asset-backed securities loan facility, or TALF. The program is seen as an important new model for the Fed’s efforts to reopen clogged credit channels. In particular, the Fed will set up a special purpose vehicle to purchase and manage the assets and the Treasury Department will invest in the vehicle to protect the Fed from losses. The Fed will lend up to $200 billion to owners of certain AAA rated asset-backed-securities backed by auto loans, credit-card loans, student loans and small business loans. The date that the TALF will commence operations will be announced later this month
“Never expect the people who caused a problem to solve it.”
Albert Einstein
make [13],
Not to worry, the fed’s steering the ship. Well, they’ve been steering since Bear imploded, almost a year ago. By the way, where is this ships destination?
“By the way, where is this ships destination?”
The Dead Sea?
Protectionism off to the races.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4511451/China-outraged-after-India-bans-all-toy-imports.html
John– I would say there are very few people who are putting down 40-60% other than those who are trade up buyers, who may have a lot less than 40-60% to put down when they finally sell their starter homes for a realistic price.
Barbara says:
February 6, 2009 at 1:57 pm
was that 47% hike all in one year?
Barb: in one quarter, but it’s only a part of the whole bill.
and while trade up houses are dropping in value too, it seems to me that starter houses are the most overvalued right now
Has anyone seen and noticeable price drops in asking prices lately? Here in Middlesex county I’m still seeing new houses go on the market for insane prices. And others that have been listed since last spring for the same high prices. I mean, if nobody was going to pay your high price last spring, what makes them think they can find somebody who will pay it this year? Boggles the mind….
Found an interesting trend:
U3 differes from U6 by a factor of 1.77
There is enough data to compare the U6/U3 ratio for jan 94 -jan 09. for this period the average ratio is 1.77 with a stdev of 0.06
that means that using the 1.77 factor to backcast U6 data from 1994 to 1948 ( when official U3 data starts) should provide a reasonable approximation.
There may be a good underlying reason for the relationship, i havent looked into it though.
http://tinyurl.com/cha8s9
Sean(protectionism)
This will help Chinese in a long run.
Instead of making useless toys and junk for the rest of the world they will realign their factories(they have the capital) and produce stuff that they themselves will consume.
Instead of toys they will manuufacture cars, appliances, TV’s, etc. Their standard of living will go up as they don’t have to work for an IOU any longer.
US and GB are screwed.
Well then they are not home buyers, just speculative investors looking to employ a large amount of leverage to make an investment in real estate. Only good priced homes I see are short sales, estate sales, REOs, divorces, transfers, etc. These sales the sellers are motiviated and want to close. 5% down and a promise of a mortage does not get these houses. Show them a six figure income, 200K in bank cash and make it noncontingent on a sale of your home or getting a mortgage and you got a deal. Unless you can do that you are paying too much for the house which puts you underwater on day one. That is the real reason homes are not selling, most buyers from 2002-2006 were not really qualified buyers in the first place and by waving a magic wand it won’t make Jose the gardner qualified unless they bring back liar loans.
skep-tic says:
February 6, 2009 at 2:26 pm
John– I would say there are very few people who are putting down 40-60% other than those who are trade up buyers, who may have a lot less than 40-60% to put down when they finally sell their starter homes for a realistic price.
kettle,
No charts comparing today’s real unemployment to the 30’s?
BC
trying to dig up the data, hard to come by
Make 23
we should debate this at a GTG i think there are serious flaws in the idea, might be a little much for here though
if you have to borrow any amount of money at all right now, I do not understand why you would not want a mortgage contingency in the contract. as you say, there is not a lot of competition out there, so I do not see what you gain by giving up such a contingency
also, beggars can’t be choosers. why do you as a buyer need to convince a seller of your qualifications? what is their alternative?
I have a question about short sales. If you’re short selling, do you contact the lender first and see if they’re amenable or do you just list the house as a short sale and clue the bank in when you go to contract?
I saw a house that was listed as short sale a couple weeks back. When I asked the Realtor if the lender was on board with it, she said that they don’t talk to the lender until the house is under contract.
Seems odd to me.
I guess this new trend in Realtor world. Make an Infomercial video of home and put it on Youtube. May be Realtor.com can be web 2.0 enabled !!!
Why Buy This House in Medford Lakes, NJ $ 499,000 – Realty Times
From the feb cred suisse global equity strategy…
We prefer bank credit to bank equity
We believe that credit offers better value than equities within banks. Governments will want to avoid nationalising banks at nearly all costs (governments would be forced to consolidate huge levels of bank debt, governments lack the skill and workforce to run nationalised banks and above all it would leave authorities open to
political scrutiny as to whom and on what terms are they lending). This means that banks
will need to rely on the debt markets.
lost: WTF are you?
This thing is getting over-hyped. It can’t be this good….
Groundbreaking, chart-topping electronic legends Depeche Mode return in April 2009 with their most dazzling and diverse album in decades. Sounds Of The Universe finds Martin Gore, Dave Gahan and Andy “Fletch” Fletcher back at the top of their game after almost 30 years together. Eclectic and energised, they sound like a band reborn.
With global sales in excess of 100 million, including Number One albums and dozens of classic singles, Depeche Mode belong to a select premier league of supergroups – alongside U2, REM and Metallica – who have survived from the early 1980s with their ideals, their creative vision and their core members intact. They overcame internal friction and critical hostility to become one of the most influential bands of the post-punk era, namechecked by everyone from The Killers, MGMT, Coldplay, Pet Shop Boys and Marilyn Manson.
Sounds Of The Universe is Depeche Mode’s latest forward-thinking masterpiece, a Violator for the 21st century. Lyrically, it contains many of the band’s enduring obsessions – lust, spirituality, romantic yearning, sinful temptation and sadomasochism – plus more overt black humour than any of their previous albums.
Musically, Sounds Of The Universe will please fans of every age and taste. From Dave’s overlord chant on the mighty first single Wrong to Martin’s velvet-lined Scott Walker croon on the sensual lounge-music ballad Jezebel, and from the sci-fi gospel-blues hymn In Chains to the sleazy electronic glam-rock stomp Corrupt, this is a classic Depeche Mode album.
As they approach their 30th anniversary, Depeche Mode are on a personal and musical high. Old tensions have been resolved, hatchets buried and bad habits conquered. Recorded in Santa Barbara and New York, Sounds Of The Universe was born from positive creative chemistry, and it really shows.
“It’s a tremendous record, just to blow our own trumpet,” laughs Dave. “We’ve had the luxury this time of recording a lot more songs than we really need, all of which have been of great quality.”
“All of us have had a really good time being together,” says Martin. “The overall atmosphere in the studio has been fantastic. Very few issues. We were very focussed.”
“The overriding thrust of the album is the number of high quality songs,” Andy agrees. “Martin’s been writing really prolifically, to a high standard. We’ve recorded about 20 songs, which is pretty good for Depeche Mode. We’re even doing a deluxe version of the album with about 17 or 18 tracks, including old demos from current and previous albums.”
The album title Sounds Of The Universe has various meanings, from its spiritual subtext to its retro-futuristic arrangements. “We’ve used a lot of old analogue synthesisers and drum machines, which conjure up image of the universe and space travel somehow,” Martin explains. “We’ve gone back to a lot of old vintage gear, without making the album sound too retro. It’s like yesterday’s future. That’s why for me it’s a perfect album title.”
Sounds Of The Universe marks a reunion between Depeche Mode and Ben Hillier, who previously produced their 2005 album Playing The Angel. A gifted all-rounder who has worked with full orchestras and rock bands, Hillier gave the album a timeless sound palette blending vintage bleeps and beats with contemporary electronic textures.
“We all felt it would be stupid not to work with Ben again,” says Martin. “He’s just one of those people who puts his mind to something and becomes instantly professional at it. He’s also quite forceful. That’s important for us, at this stage of our career, to have someone willing to stick their neck out and disagree with us.”
Like Playing The Angel, Sounds Of The Universe features writing credits for both Martin and Dave. After honing his talents on two solo albums, Dave has earned his place as Depeche Mode’s second songwriter. “The fact that Dave has started writing songs has done a lot of good for the band because his confidence is much higher now,” says Andy. “He feels a lot more attached to the band because of that.”
In fact, Sounds Of The Universe is the closest collaboration yet between Depeche Mode’s two main songwriters. Martin and Dave share vocals on several songs and they have even co-written one track on this record. It felt like “a true partnership”, says Dave. “I think in a blind test people would find it difficult to tell who wrote which songs,” adds Martin.
The first single from the album, Wrong grabs the listener’s attention from its first stack-heeled, staccato shriek. Over stomping beats and screeching synthesisers, Dave hammers out Martin’s darkly comic reflections on a lifetime of mistakes, misdeeds and bad decisions.
Instantly addictive, Wrong clearly has a guaranteed future as a sky-punching stadium anthem. It already feels like a Depeche Mode classic.
“We decided at a fairly early stage that we wanted Wrong to be the first single, because it’s quite different to anything we’ve released before,” says Martin. “I don’t know quite what category to put it in musically, but it’s got a kind of rap feel to it. It’s probably as close to R&B as we’re ever going to sound.”
For Martin, another album highlight is Peace, with its sublime techno-gospel arrangement and cascading choral refrain. It was written back to back with Footprint, a seductive whirl of warped fairground pop, which became a kind of nocturnal sister song to Peace.
“Both those songs had a spiritual element to them, and to me that formed a sort of cornerstone to the album,” Martin explains. “We’ve had spiritual references on previous records, but I think with this one it’s a little more obvious.”
Dave’s contributions to Sounds Of The Universe were written with his regular composing partners, Andrew Philpott and Christian Eigner, Depeche Mode‘s live drummer. One of their stand-out collaborations is Come Back, the dirtiest and rowdiest rocker on the album.
“I wanted to take it away from being a straight ballad,” says Dave, “with a feel beneath it that was kind of My Bloody Valentine or Jesus and Mary Chain. A big lush sound with this droning wall of noise underneath. Martin did some fantastic backing vocals for that.”
Another of the singer’s dirty confessionals, Hole To Feed marries modern electronics to a floor-shaking, bone-rattling Bo Diddley beat. The lyric, a blend of rock-star swagger and tender yearning, is vintage Dave Gahan.
“Lyrically, I’m just being my usual cynical self,” Dave laughs. “I’m the man who has everything but I’m still just poking around in that little hole that feels empty, wondering what I can fill it with.”
In keeping with tradition, Anton Corbijn again provides the striking sleeve design and band photos for Sounds Of The Universe. Now an acclaimed film director with his Joy Division biopic Control, the “Dutch Master” has been Depeche Mode’s chief visual consultant for over 20 years.
“It was difficult to get him this time,” Andy laughs. “Now he’s won all these awards as film director it was very hard to tie him down for an album cover. But yes, Anton’s still involved, he’s very important to Depeche Mode.”
The band is set to go on a mammoth global jaunt opening on May 10 with 28 stadium concerts across the Middle East and Europe. Further legs of the tour will include the US and throughout South America. “We played Mexico on the last tour and it was amazingly successful,” Martin recalls. “We did two nights in Mexico City to 50,000 people each night. Knowing how popular we are out there, we’re expecting a similar reaction this time – we all felt we neglected South America on the last tour, so we decided to put that right.”
For a band with such a long and successful history, selecting the set list for the tour is a major task. Around 230 possible Depeche Mode classics need to be honed into a 20-song concert. “Every time we tour now the set list becomes a real nightmare,” says Andy. “Because we’re a democracy, it’s like the Eurovision Song Contest, voting individually for each song. But it’s not such a bad problem to have.”
Public response to the Tour of the Universe has been phenomenal, with many European stadium shows selling out almost immediately. “The touring thing is where it all makes sense for me,” nods Dave. “Once the fans are there, there’s always that feeling underneath Depeche Mode’s music of wanting to be part of something, and there are a lot of people out there who feel the same.”
Ultimately, all three members of Depeche Mode pay tribute to the loyal army of fans who have supported them for almost 30 years. Their devotion is what makes forward-thinking albums like Sounds Of The Universe possible, and their excitement is what makes Depeche Mode tours such electrifying spectacles.
“We’ve been blessed over the years by our audience,” says Martin. “We have the craziest, most loyal fans of any band I know. People who think Depeche Mode are doomy should just come and see one of our concerts and see how the audience react. The shows are just an amazing high, everybody’s there to have a good time.”
In 2009, Depeche Mode are unstoppable. Get ready for the album of the year from the biggest, brightest, best band in the Universe.
“Instead of toys they will manuufacture cars, appliances, TV’s, etc. Their standard of living will go up as they don’t have to work for an IOU any longer.”
Make [23],
US, pre/post WW2.
Credit binge, boom, bust, depression, massive govt stimulus, public works program, protectionism, 25% unemployment, world war, national recovery. HMMM.
Enouch Depeche. Let’s stick to good music:
Ozzy
Bruce
Enough said.
The one house I was serious about was willing to sell it to me for 20K below best offer if I went non contingent. I am seeing that a lot lately, plus I am seeing owners willing to do the financing with a big enough downpayment.
skep-tic says:
February 6, 2009 at 2:39 pm
if you have to borrow any amount of money at all right now, I do not understand why you would not want a mortgage contingency in the contract. as you say, there is not a lot of competition out there, so I do not see what you gain by giving up such a contingency
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will outline the Obama administration’s new proposal to rescue the banking sector in a speech at noon on Monday at the department’s headquarters. Geithner “will explain how the financial stability plan will be critical in supporting an effective and lasting economic recovery,” the department said in a statement. Spending more money on ailing banks is likely to be a bitter pill for Congress to swallow. Treasury said the plan would strengthen “accountability, oversight, and transparency in how taxpayer dollars are spent.”
I think they plaguarized me.
veto says:
February 6, 2009 at 2:51 pm
From the feb cred suisse global equity strategy…
We prefer bank credit to bank equity
We believe that credit offers better value than equities within banks. Governments will want to avoid nationalising banks at nearly all costs (governments would be forced to consolidate huge levels of bank debt, governments lack the skill and workforce to run nationalised banks and above all it would leave authorities open to
political scrutiny as to whom and on what terms are they lending). This means that banks
will need to rely on the debt markets.
“By the way, where is this ships destination?”
Stu,
I don’t know if ANYONE knows where the ship is going. One thing that seems apprent, however, is that she is taking on water and the pumps are not working.
If the pu.ps don’t start working, that leaves three choices: sink; find a dry dock; or, run her aground.
#21 jeff: Hope? Hope they can believe in?
33…that thing’ll drop like a stone.
Bob,
No charts comparing today’s real unemployment to the 30’s?
Ask and you shall receive!
http://tinyurl.com/cc4sq2
#21 Jeff K
>> Has anyone seen and noticeable price
>> drops in asking prices lately?
No. In fact today I got a listing in Westfield that raised the asking price by 10k after the property has been on the market for 106 days with no takers.
2594049
Mostly what I see are asking prices that are at peak or 5% below. The homes with serious sellers make attention grabbing price cuts within 60 days (50k+). That is maybe 5% of all the listings I have been following. Most just sit and make small reductions in ask every 4-6 months and are just riding this thing down to the bottom.
“charts comparing today’s real unemployment to the 30’s? Ask and you shall receive!”
kettle, bob, you guys are good…
45% u-6 unemployment in 1932, wow.
we know a couple who agreed to buy a colonial for 275k. They had an inspector come and he concluded that the house is not structurally sound and it would cost over 10k to fix it. The seller paid 205k for it a few years ago and flat out told them, that he refuses to do the repairs and he will not lower the price. He’ll just let it go into foreclosure. The couple still wants to buy it which is beyond me. Let it go into foreclosure and buy it at the Sheriff Sale.
BOA
Comp Killer?
http://www.trulia.com/property/1016256697-10-Pittsburgh-Ave-Piscataway-NJ-08854
Asking $279,900 (Short Sale)
Sold in 05 for $400k, and in 07 for $395k.
Somebody mentioned BOA charging unorthodox fees, well I noticed those pricks over a Chase moved up a payment of mine on a Credit Card by about a week to try and collect a late fee I guess. Those pricks they are going to pay, I will pull out all of my money and put it under a mattress before I give them a nickle in late fees for an account I have setup with automatic payments.
John,
SRS getting smacked but it will bounce back by end of next week. Bulls pushing through limits. No biggie. There’s no retail activity going forward. Nothing in this stimulus bill is going to change that fact. You’ll get a couple day bs bear rally we’ve been getting every time the clowns in DC come up with a new “plan”. Then reality sets in and people realize no new jobs = no new retail activity = empty malls = bankrupt reits.
Treasury said the plan would strengthen “accountability, oversight, and transparency in how taxpayer dollars are spent.”
[37]
The same Tim Geithner who slept while the IB’s levered 40-1? The same head of the NY fed that watched Bear implode, Lehman get crushed and AIG play CDS monopoly? Change in DC? Same as it ever was. How comforting.
for anyone who follows elliot waves, the U-6 charts sppear to be showing a new upward wave starting.
note i am no elliot wave guru, i just dabble
kettle [42],
You da man.
Harding home sales suffering under strain
http://www.recordernewspapers.com/articles/2009/02/06/observer-tribune/latest_news/doc498a260b3a914322793476.txt
Bob,
I am in the wrong field, i should charge for this stuff ;)
Veto,
“kettle, bob, you guys are good…”
Thanks
#42
if we hit 20% unemployment USA is over
Skeptic,
20% U6 by dec 2009
The Chaase rep for my mortgage guys just started flogging them with this today. This USDA program has been around for decades, but it looks as though the decision has been made to cram as many mortgages as possible through this. Straight from the e-mail:
“Here’s the information on the USDA program:
102% off the appraised value (not even affected by declining markets)
No downpayment required
No monthly MI
No reserves required
No minimum credit score”
http://eligibility.sc.egov.usda.gov/eligibility/welcomeAction.do
It is NOT for financing farms! It’s for all types of “regular” housing…and, virtually ALL of Somerset, Hunterdon and Warren are eligible. There are also some income limits, which you can check at the website.
Clot,
lets buy a house!!!!!
if you can get me a high 4 rate then i might give you a call, heck the way things are going thats free money
“if we hit 20% unemployment USA is over”
If you define the USA by 5 plasma TVs, 3 cars, granite countertops, marble sinks, Iphones, and new strip malls every 6 months, then yes, it’s over. I can’t wait until this country has to get back to real work.
YAAAAY! The worst is over and we have reached the bottom, according to the last 7 talking heads on CNBC.
People are now buying on the dips and not selling on the spikes. Higher highs and higher lows.
Crisis averted.
“I can’t wait until this country has to get back to real work.”
Ben,
Can Pavlov’s dog be retrained?
#61 – No, too deeply ingrained. Just put it out of it’s misery or it’ll chase that fake rabbit to death.
I am talking about unemployment being roughly 3x what it is right now. I think people are getting antsy right now as it is because there is no straightforward way out of this and things are not slowing down at all. 20%+ unemployment means there would be a lot of p*ssed off people walking around with nothing to do and feeling desperate. Look, the placid icelanders are rioting so what do you imagine americans would do
Bob,
I am in the wrong field, i should charge for this stuff ;)
Bob,
Can you give kettle the 400K Forex job?
“Can you give kettle the 400K Forex job?”
make,
Sorry, we hired the realtor.
God bless free market capitalism!!!! Can’t wait to hear Kudlow talk about free market capitalism tonight!!!
You guys blaa blaa blaa blaa blaa about unemployment and mortgage rates. Who cares. The can always squegee my benzo as I go rollin down the streets sippin on gin and juice, baby you know it’s not nice to be a playa hata.
bob,
I’ll take the forex for 200K
and even throw in some pretty charts for the heck of it ;)
Make,
i would make a better analyst then trader
Skeptic,
Look into northcom. The US military, DHS, and others have already run war games on the scenario you speak of. SAS probably has a few comments on that topic
Bicentennial Edition: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970 :
has some fascinating data in it if anyone is ever bored…
I am glad I live in the suburbs. would not want to be trapped in nyc if things really start to get bad
#63 skeptic;Look, the placid icelanders are rioting.
#60 seneca:YAAAAY! The worst is over and we have reached the bottom, according to the last 7 talking heads on CNBC.
That is what they have been saying csince last Spetember, better than that, these are the same clowns who claimed there were no problems to begin with.
Bottom in the stock market? Not likely.
Bottom of the recession? No, not even close. We are only about a quarter of the way through the recession at this point.
Americans need to be afraid, very afraid. I think they are finally starting to wake up.
Can we finally cancel CNBC. It is a shame when Bloomberg televisions is being dramaticcaly cut back, and these clowns on CNBC are still around.
Skep,
unemployment has about doubled in 1 year. January saw 500K layoffs and the pace doesnt appear to be drastically slowing. Got ammo?
This year really won’t be complete until John is here- in the middle of a panic- bargaining with God for just one more bailout.
skep (63)-
If you drank aquavit for lunch and didn’t see the sun for six months at a time, you’d riot too.
“Look, the placid icelanders are rioting so what do you imagine americans would do”
This comp killer was more interesting than the typical weekend header.
RE: “The one house I was serious about was willing to sell it to me for 20K below best offer if I went non contingent.”
Cold feet?
Doubling down on SRS right now, and I don’t think my pulse rate has gone up.
May load up some more if Geithner whores it out on Monday. I actually hope they suspend mark-to-market. We’ll get a Depression, but I’ll have enough to leave the country.
#66 John:God bless free market capitalism!!!!
Hey John could be one of the guys on CNBC.
You have been consistently wrong in calling the bottom these last few months.
The ugly days you ignore, and on a day like today you are back screaming again.
Hey your mustard seeds have been replanted today, but they they will be dug up again before the end of next week.
I will still however, cut you a little slack cause you are a Bronx Boy.
RE: “A loss of more than $200,000 once you factor in the commission!”
Add in opportunity costs and mortgage interest.
Gary is strangely absent for these recent comp killers…
Are those mustard seeds in my poop?
http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/tg10.htm
See towards the end of foreigners slowly not buying dollar denominated assets. These kind of news don’t make it to MSM.
kettle,
you’ve nailed this whole situation turn by turn and Wantabe would be lucky to have someone with your track record.
I will listen to you closely when gold tops and I have to move my capital to another asset class.
I mean it.
Clot – John may not need to bargain or beg. He is on the side of Government intervention, and has been getting it in spades.
As far as buying anything on the short side short side, I don’t trust Timmay, because I know it is only a matter of time before the powers that be increase PPT activity and begin massive printing and buying of stocks, if they haven’t begun so already.
The game is rigged, always has and always will be.
#73 grim: Take a look at this listing in River Edge. MLS# 2904536. It is on a little busy street, but not bad.
4 bed 2 bath cape, all brick listed at 319k, looks like it went under contract. However, those capes in RE were selling for that price in 2001. Pictures of the inside don’t look bad either.
It it closes under 300K, than for that house at least it is back to late 90’s early 00 pricing.
I didn’t know what acquavit was until I went to the restaurant acquavit on a business lunch and then ordered an acquavit because I thought it sounded refreshing (it was described as a pineapple/basil drink). I was pretty surprised and embarrassed when the waiver handed me a shot glass of vodka
Somebody please tell me again why I’m a Realtor.
“To ALL RE/MAX ofNew Jersey Associates:
Below is a very important message that Dave Liniger sent out this afternoon to all RE/MAX Associates. We are resending this message to all RE/MAX of New Jersey Associates to ensure that each and every one of you are in receipt and can take action. We reiterate Dave’s suggestion to forward this message to anyone that you may currently be doing business with.
Sincerely,
XXXXXXX and XXXXXXXX
Regional Owners
RE/MAX of New Jersey
Urgent Message from Dave Liniger
If you have been watching the news this week, you may have noticed that the debate in Washington has finally turned toward real stimulus for the housing industry. As a result, I believe that we could be on the brink of a substantial turn around in the real estate market. Now, it’s critical that we all join together and deliver a powerful message to our legislators that we support this stimulus.
Last night, the Lieberman/Isakson Amendment was included in the senate version of the Economic Stimulus Bill by a unanimous voice vote. This amendment would provide a Tax Credit to all home buyers at the rate of 10% of the sales price up to a limit of $15,000. The credit would be available for a one year period to all purchasers of primary residences.
Today, the senate expects to debate Amendment 353, a proposal by Senator John Ensign (R-NV) that would provide 30 year fixed financing at a rate of about 4%, for anyone purchasing a primary residence.
If these two provisions survive in the final passage of a stimulus bill they could have a tremendous impact on our industry. If they are coupled together with provisions to ease the flow of credit and reduce foreclosures, we could see an immediate and dramatic turn-around in real estate.
I feel that these provisions represent real economic stimulus. They will put money in the hands of millions of homeowners, increase sales, stabilize home values and add more revenues to local communities in the form of property taxes.
I urge each of you to contact your senators and representatives to let them know that you believe these provisions are essential components of any stimulus bill. You can go to the official Senator and House web sites to locate the email and phone number of your legislators.
This may be one of the most critical moments for the real estate industry in our time. Please pass this information on to anyone you might do business with. The outcome of this legislation will have a lasting impact on us all. I appreciate your assistance on this urgent matter.
Thank you.
Nice to know the people who sold me my franchise believe that keeping people in houses they can’t afford and artificially supporting the price of worthless MBS merits lying to buyers and sellers.
“#60 seneca:YAAAAY! The worst is over and we have reached the bottom, according to the last 7 talking heads on CNBC.”
The same in 2006;
“There is no bubble”
“The world is awash in liquidity”
“Invest for the long term”
“Subprime, there will be no contagion”
“We have never had a national decline in RE prices,”
“SWF’s will provide a cushion for the market”
“We are in the ninth inning”
“A credit based economy will provide for long term growth/expansion”
Can the 7 talking heads please forward a copy of your account statements?
make,
remember, I am just an a high school janitor with a penchant for charts….
So far i have been very lucky….
Clot,
can we do new construction with that USDA program????
“A loss of more than $200,000 once you factor in the commission! I thought prices didn’t go down in Upper Montclair?”
JB,
I’m confused. I thought you could only dig up $2.5M comp killers?
Clot [85],
I received that last night.
I am looking at a bunch of houses that are very similar to that montclair comp killer (and contemplating similarly discounted bids). nice to see that the lunacy is abating somewhat. the question I have at this point is whether it is even worth it to get the $700k bubble house for $500k. I am increasingly leaning toward “no.”
vodka (89)-
No.
“$700k bubble house for $500k”
skep [92],
350-420K.
I just found a photo of the US economy
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_9ZzZquaXrR8/SYtOwE-nSRI/AAAAAAAAC3w/Ez0Lmug6qyc/s1600-h/TrainWreck.jpg
“$700k bubble house for $500k”
skep [92],
350-420K.
********
aka, 1999 prices. I think I am on the same page
JB – can i get the last MLS on that comp killer puppy? I would like to share with an RE professional I know.
Sean been buying bank bonds between 62 cents and 80 cents on the dollar since Jan, yesterday morning picked up a 17K citi bond for 10K for a nice 11% yield. I am a huge bull long term, but short term my new mantra is get on top of the fed in bed, meaning if fed did a big capital injection in pref stocks in a bank buy the bonds, in BK bondholders get paid first and I will be cashing uncle sam’s checks in a 40% RR in a bond I bought for 60 cents on a dollar if it goes right I am cashing out at 100 cents on a dollar. I was munis last three months of year and they bailed out that big time, even though clot thought I was nuts, clot go to bloomie and check out 1.14% yield on 2 year munis, that is a crushin mr. mcrussian!!!. Dora the exployer could follow this Fed map. I keep buying 10K pieces at 7k reinvesting the interest and throwing 5K new in each month in my bond collection, the dang thing is a growing.
My bad boy bank bond bailout strategy will be dead monday so I guess I am on to my next play, blue chip firms trading below book with a dividend and buy recommendations. Those common stocks are a triple threat.
Gold is old and shorts are played even a triple crown winner eventually loses. People keep saying I will be selling gold for $1,600 an oz when no one has money, huh? Did you miss the part “no one has money”? who the heck is buying the gold off you broke people? Yea, I got no heat, no food, not house and I am down to my last $1,600, is the first thing I want is a little tiny piece of gold flake?
[88] kettle
So was Will Hunting.
God, I miss Harvard Square.
#85/86 Clot: It won’t work does not matter. Just more mindless nonsense.
3B #81,
SLD $183,000 11/1/1991
ACT $579,000 3/27/2006
PCH $549,900 4/25/2006
PCH $535,000 5/25/2006
PCH $499,000 7/19/2006
EXP $499,000 9/28/2006
ACT $319,000 1/30/2009
ACT* $319,000 2/4/2009
U/C $319,000 2/5/2009
“God, I miss Harvard Square.”
as my sister’s boyfriend from medford used to say, “hahvid is wicked gay.”
Fair warning to all, take the Blue Pill and be happy. If you continue to take the Red Pill you will end up broke.
Congress will be in session this weekend to pass the HR1 Stimulus Bill. Our Government is about to embark on a massive on-books Stimulus Plan spending spree that will cause inflation and at the same time a massive PPT type of off-books spending spree to buy stocks and artificially inflate values.
There is no right or wrong anymore, that time has passed, there are no consequences for ones actions so get
used to it.
“People keep saying I will be selling gold for $1,600 an oz when no one has money, huh?”
John,
Bull markets make their big moves with nobody on board.
No money, huh? The adj monetary base has gone parabolic. Every cb printing machine is working 48 hrs a day. You really work on WS? Then again, you did audit a vault. Can’t make this s*it up.
“a massive PPT type of off-books spending spree to buy stocks and artificially inflate values.”
– How did that work out for Japan? We have too much debt in the system, not gonna happen anytime soon. I still think playing inflation is too early. There has never been inflation with falling house prices.
#101 Rich: I was thinking of throwing a bid in on that, but figured it would go quickly, and no need to get into a bidding war, which could have happened at that 319k list price. There will be much more on the way.
Still cannot undestand why the 4 bedrm Colonial on Monroe that is bank owned has not lowered its 444k ask price, which as you were so kind to inform me last sold at 500k.
Clot:
I moved the 50% that I went long in my 401K about 3 months ago back into bonds. Made a whopping .5%, but not complaining. Should have done it at 9K on the Dow, but I thought it would go higher. After Monday and/or Tuesday I expect your double down will have proven to be a well-timed move. I am still about 20% away from my full position so I hope to get it lower than my last buy, which is lower than where it is now on both FXP and SRS. Then, I hold for the long-term gains to be derived from our fearless leaders repetition of the Japanese lost decade. I thought the market would be range bound between 8 and 10 on the Dow. I don’t think we see 10 again until well into the next decade. We’ll see how it all plays out. All I know is that every week I walk down Hudson Street in NYC from the Christopher Street Path, I see one more vacant store front! Off to Culin Arianne!
[55] skep,
Is that official guvvie 20% or shadow 20%? By some accounts we are almost there now.
John,
The last time you offered up your expert advice, sell gold, it was at $750. Thanks for the advice, I added on at that point.
[102} skep
You mean the boyfriend from Meffa? Did he prefer to hang out in Davis Squayah?
Yes, there are gays at Havahd, and even in the Squayah, but there’s also a ton of wicked pissah bahs to hang out in and try to scoah some Havahd chicks.
33 ChiFi
I’m right here!
Bergen County NJMLS Stats for January
Year Med$ #Sold #U/C
1995 $195,000 465 573
1996 $189,900 501 551
1997 $199,000 548 681
1998 $205,000 569 797
1999 $210,000 630 614
2000 $257,500 506 647
2001 $260,000 583 548
2002 $269,500 638 730
2003 $339,000 743 673
2004 $365,000 664 680
2005 $424,500 670 684
2006 $476,000 528 580
2007 $448,750 553 682
2008 $438,500 369 477
2009 $431,250 282 361
Median price for January down 9.5% from peak
My advice is too always sell gold, 50, 100, 500, 1,000 or 2,000. I hate gold, it is so Mr. T.
BC Bob exactly what do you currently work at? I know you worked at GS back when the US was on the gold standard but what about today?
“My advice is too always sell gold, 50, 100, 500, 1,000 or 2,000.
John,
Advice is chicken s*it. STFU and step to the plate, sell 100 futures, at the market. Better yet, take in premium, sell the Dec 2011 1K calls. You have the margin capital?
“BC Bob exactly what do you currently work at?”
I run printing presses.
#110
I recommend googling “tommy from quinzee” if you aren’t already familiar
“BC Bob exactly what do you currently work at?”
I run printing presses.
BC,(117)
just lost my coffee…
I kinda picture BC as that crusty guy on CSI with the cane who limps.
If this DOW 8300 is all they(traders and ppt) got on the buy the rumor sell the fact then we’re in big trouble I won’t rule out a 6 handle in a few months.
It will be interestuing on Monday when they throw in a few nudred billion and marke doesn’t respong with a 900 point gain like it did that Monday in Nov.
[177] skep
No, did not know that one. But I could be him.
“Are you facking retahded or something? Just because I lived off of Wally beach in Quinzee, I’m some Irish retahd?”
And I did live near Wally beach for a few years while in law school. Then I moved ta Wes Meffa!!!! (West Medford)
[119] John
Actually, that is how I pictured YOU!
This comp killer made my whole day, week and year.
As someone who has put off buying a home in Montclair for 4 years (and subjected to scorn, ridicule and conjecture about financial status), I seriously feel like spinning in circles. F-i-n-a-l-l-y.
That said … the market still has a long way to fall I hope.
Re: 119
HEY! BC doesn’t have a limp!
#121
there is also a NJ equivalent of tommy from quinzee (though not nearly as funny, IMO)
[122] Rich
and I don’t want to know how John got that limp.
John? Any good story there?
[123] skep
Tommy from Quinzee sounds a lot like my friend Mattie from UMass, who got himself a dream job, working in the luxury boxes at the old Boston Gahden. A dream come true for him, die-hard Celtics fan that he was. He actually thought that he had made it, being a gopher for guys like me (though I was still humping a desk in a bank at the time).
Drinking, sports, and getting laid. That pretty much summed up Mattie’s goals in life. If he could get paid to do those things, he’d be the happiest Irishman on the planet.
125
Sorry that was “die hahd Celtics fan”
grim – come on, not again. The median selling price of homes in Montclair in 2005 was 508k and 560k in the first part of 2007. Clearly, by cherry picking from the higher end homes in upper montclair (aka 709k selling price in 2005) you are once again being ingenuous – or maybe ingenious…I forget which.
“Drinking, sports, and getting laid.”
don’t forget smoking Newpawts and occassionally headbutting someone for no reason
About 4 to 6 monthes ago I posted about the girl who cuts my hair. losing home , sent her to hud . Has not made payment in 8 monthes they lose paper work (hud)now can get her in at 4% the other work out was more. Here is the plan take the new deal don’t pay for as long as possible then mail in keys & rent. Ain’t it grand. Henry’s keep paying!
another friday, another bank down:
****
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said Friday FirstBank Financial Services in McDonough, Ga., was closed by the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance.
The Georgia agency appointed the FDIC as receiver. It was the seventh bank failure announced this year by the FDIC.
I do not see how this is a comp killer. It is 25% off the peak prices. I think every seller is willing to discount 25% from the peak. If anything this comp CONFIRMS today’s prices.
Good try but next time.
For the record.
F@ck all of you Government tit sucking losers. You dont realize that the recession is the cure not the problem. So f$ck your dam bailout. You are right I am mad as hell. Clot got room for me on your compound?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l46t_nrySg4
“You dont realize that the recession is the cure not the problem.”
James,
The recession was the cure in 2001,that was pushed back. Unfortunately, present day, a depression is the cure.
kettle,
can you un-tiny the link in #41 on real unemployment and how it compares to the Depression?
My firewall won’t let me do tinys.
http://maldream.blogspot.com/2009/02/u3-and-u6-unemployment-update-2.html
“Bush SEC Holdovers Cite Executive Privilege, Refuse to Answer Questions at Madoff Hearing”
http://tinyurl.com/by8qv7
From Bloomberg:
Job Losses in U.S. Spreading to Workers With College Degrees
In this recession, not even an education can shield you from losing your job.
The unemployment rate among workers with college degrees rose to 3.8 percent, the highest level since records began in 1992, the Labor Department reported today. The rate for workers with some college or an associate’s degree also climbed to a record, at 6.2 percent.
“This particular recession is hitting workers with more levels of schooling harder than past recessions have hit them,” said Heidi Shierholz, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a Washington research group typically aligned with the labor movement. “It’s just a deeper recession, it’s more widespread, its tentacles are reaching everywhere.”
According to EPI data, the level of unemployment among people with college educations is the highest since January 1983. With banks merging and manufacturers like Caterpillar Inc. eliminating management positions, the ranks of college-educated unemployed may continue to grow, economists said.
“This is a deeper recession and it has really accelerated over the last several months,” said Christine Owens, executive director of the National Employment Law Project. “There will be income losses throughout the economy.”
[130] skep
“don’t forget smoking Newpawts and occassionally headbutting someone for no reason”
You knew Mattie too???
[134]
Clot, you wanna copyright “Clotpound”?
So we have the Nompound and the Clotpound.
What’s next, the Grim-share?
re: #138 If anyone in Congress had a spine they would bring back the Capital Jail, 1934 was the last time Congress used its inherent power and handled the prosecution of a contempt case itself.
Clot,
From your ReMax post:
Today, the senate expects to debate Amendment 353, a proposal by Senator John Ensign (R-NV) that would provide 30 year fixed financing at a rate of about 4%, for anyone purchasing a primary residence.
How are they planning on doing that? thru Fannie and Freddie?
Or a subsidy where anything above 4 will be paid by yet another alphabet soup program?
211 Lexington Ave, Maplewood NJ
Purchased: 12/20/2005
Purchase Price: $392,000
MLS# 2541066
Sold: 12/3/2008
Sale Price: $180,000
54% below 2005 purchase price
15 Revere Avenue, Maplewood NJ
Purchased: 9/30/2005
Purchase Price: $390,000
MLS# 2548680
Sold: 1/20/2009
Sale Price: $280,000
28% below 2005 purchase price
I love seeing Montclair RE get bitch slapped, that town and its agents wasted so much of my time.
See you in another year, Planet Clair.
and I don’t even like upper montclair. feels any any other sad suburb. Prefer more downtown
Barbra here you go B-52’s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EPP3gkh_00
148. awww
RIP Ricky. Good times.
We are showing are age!
indeed. and my lower back is killing me too :P
Buying today or maybe tomorrow….
Lets just call it the Safty Dance.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcOZ6xFxJqg
This one is for Gary.
Asking prices are bu!!shit.
12 Harrington Terrace, West Orange
MLS# 2409845
Listed: 5/21/2007
Original Asking Price: $660,000
Foreclosed, sold by Deutsche Bank on 1/23/2009 for $322,900.
Asking price was double the real market value.
“211 Lexington Ave, Maplewood NJ
Purchased: 12/20/2005
Purchase Price: $392,000
MLS# 2541066
Sold: 12/3/2008
Sale Price: $180,000”
grim, nice try again
this is half of a house in the ghetto (below Springfield)
Grim;
Sent you an email.
plume (141)-
“Clot, you wanna copyright “Clotpound”?”
Sure.
Also, I am declaring war on your Nompound. :)
scribe (143)-
As best I can tell, they intend to use magic.
Grim, I think this “Maplewoodian” may turn out to be like Ducky.
Just a feeling.
Checked out that link on USDA loans. My area is good to go Hmmmm.. do they check cash assets. I’m laid off but the wife could get one 100% finance based on her pay & my unemployment.Might be a move.
I’m not an expert on the area, but exactly what part of Maplewood can I walk in without fear of getting shot in the face?
Nom you are in trouble now. Can I sell weapons to both sides. That is how it is done right.
Mike (159)-
The Chase wholesaler who’s pushing this slop intimates this is the closest you can get these days to the dearly-departed Ninja loan. Nothing down & 102 LTV? I think you’re good to go if you can fill out the form.
Good times!
Mikeinwaiting, a true American:
“Can I sell weapons to both sides.”
Is this one in the ghetto?
MLS# 2561773 – 142 Wyoming Ave, Maplewood
Purchased: 7/7/2006
Purchase Price: $955,500
Current asking price: $764,900
Clot Maplewood is that bad.
Or this one?
MLS# 2609765 – 4 Jennifer Lane, Maplewood
Purchased: 1/8/2007
Purchase Price: $766,000
Current asking price: $550,000
“I thought all of Maplewood was the ghetto”
Me too.
Our friend Woody probably refers to the POS capes in Summit as “Slummit”, too.
ah – there you again grim- cherry picking above median again.
Let’s see how Woody spins that nice chain of comps as outliers.
there you GO again
Clot 163 Escalation is profitable!
[156] clot
Bring it!
Mike, I am already sufficiently stocked. And kettle is bring up some armor.
Syb,
Got it, need a bit to reply.
171.
kinda like what you agents would do in 2005 when I would ask for comps to justify 600K on a run down, rotting victorian in need of 200K worth for reno?
now its our turn.
whoops.meant for 170
Hmm, I’m noticing a trend here.
MLS# 2633073 – 24 Oakview, Maplewood
Purchased: 1/16/2006
Purchase Price: $730,000
Current asking: $510,000
It is disturbing to me that at almost all times during the current housing crisis, I know exactly where to go to obtain a bullshit, liar-loan mortgage (not that I have directed anyone to do so…nor would I).
This collapse is never going to end.
For what it is worth, I am seeing domino-effect bankruptcy filings. I have a real bad feeling from my vantage point high over New Jersey that there is a tsunami of bankruptcies building up offshore.
For those of you in business, get those invoices out quickly and shake the money tree because you might not be getting paid.
“this is half of a house in the ghetto”
“Purchased: 12/20/2005
Purchase Price: $392,000”
Grim,
I lean towards this maplewoodian bloke.
if your pointing out trends that weren’t seen before, yes, interesting.
but at such a low price in 05, this is really much news. a random interseting story, but not representative of anything.
one could argue & view your post of that property as an attempt to exaggerate a bearish outlook on RE.
SAS
Mike (171)-
Get me an EMP bomb. I figure a small one will completely disable Nom’s dude ranch.
Then, we’ll take their women and dogs. :)
Clot 162 I figure with a payment based on present income I can pay for it out of my interest & live for free or there abouts. Still doesn’t beat my 3600 ft home with in ground pool for under 7 though. Taxes are over 15 k. Top of the line everything. Granite kit, 3 fam Rms you name it.
but don’t get me wrong.
RE is going down, and if anyone bought in the past few years thinking they will do a dance of victory when you sell “in a few years”.
ha!
you best think again.
SAS
if your pointing out trends that weren’t seen before, yes, interesting.
SAS,
Despite the investment chatter, this is a real estate blog. I only do two tricks, prices and volume.
I’m too dumb to point out any other trends, and I sure don’t do show tunes.
scribe,
if you still need it, the Un-tinyed link from 41
http://maldream.blogspot.com/2009/02/u3-and-u6-unemployment-update-2.html
“current housing crisis”
wait till all the other bubbles collapse
“This collapse is never going to end”
a slow burn baby!
SAS
ah – there you again grim- cherry picking above median again.
Ok ok, how about this one?
MLS# 2632537 – 52 Hillcrest Rd, Maplewood
Purchased: 4/13/2006
Purchase Price: $400,000
Current asking: $250,000
I just supply the arms & maybe and advisor or two. Not a combatant . It’s the American way!
grim (183)-
I think you’ve more than sufficiently noted a trend that many a bull and bear alike here have posited would never occur.
We should keep an eye on many areas now to see when another interesting phenomenon begins to occur: the synchronized rush for the exits.
mike (187)-
The only advisor I’ll need is one…to show me where the “detonate” button is.
(186) but, but that’s in the ghetto…
Another Montclair Comp Killer
MLS# 2619358 – 601 Upper Mountain
Purchased: 6/12/2006
Purchase Price: $570,000
Current Asking: $399,000
#190 – I know, I know, the house is the wrong color and DID YOU SEE THOSE CURTAINS? OMYGOD
The trend is every where, my neck of the woods is a blood bath. There is still more to go even up here. Just give BC & the train towns some time. Anyone who thinks this will not occur is whistling in the wind.
Grim I guess Upper Mountain RD is a ghetto.
Grim – this was fun. Gotta get the kid in bed for an early morning tomorrow. Next friday, can we do this again, please?
“this is half of a house in the ghetto (below Springfield)”
[154],
…and the reason it sold for almost 400K in 2005?
“I only do two tricks, prices and volume
I’m too dumb to point out any other trends, and I sure don’t do show tunes”
maybe cause I’ve started having scotch an hour before my usual time, but i am not following?
your tricks/data set has to be meaningful, otherwise its just background noise.
not trying to be sarcastic, i’m just not undertsanding.
SAS
You would think after all that has happened people would stop trying to call you out on these Grim. Bought in the bubble I guess.
comrade nom deplume says:
February 6, 2009 at 5:27 pm
[122] Rich
and I don’t want to know how John got that limp.
John? Any good story there?
he got that limp from greasing up the insides of rotten onions….
sl
(180) Clot,
My arms are impervious to EMP. And my perimeter security is decidely low tech (just like the VC’s).
198 Not you SAS. Started the scotch at 230 today early even for me!
Shore Guy says:
February 6, 2009 at 3:00 pm
Enouch Depeche. Let’s stick to good music:
Ozzy
[giggling] Hubby and I got married to the tunes of Ozzy… came down the stairs introduced as Mr&Mrs to the tunes of “Crazy Babies!”
And I have the video to prove it.
Better yet? MIL bought us the 12 pc orchestra as our gift….with horn section etc… all playing Ozzy!! And the video….
:)
sl
Nom low tech is good. I’m sure SAS could be of help in that area. But communication is key hence the emp is helpful to Clot regardless.
#167 clot: It is a ghetto, and the high schoool is scary.
All those silly Wall Streeters who bought there in the last few years, are stuck there, for a long,long time.
John says: I kinda picture BC as that crusty guy on CSI with the cane who limps.
I kinda picture you as the guy with the crusty bits of onions left on your limp….
oh, whatever.
sl
clot,
if they are still offering liar loans i am becoming hard pressed justify why i dont quickly run up a bunch of debt then buy a home with a liar loan and dump the debt in the house.
When things start getting shady, live in the house for a year or so for free, then go back to renting…..
JB,
Upper Mtn Ave? Say it ain’t so, Willie?
Ernie Banks, let’s play two. Happy hour pricing, coming soon.
Mike, you are right about the train towns. Even brigadoon isn’t immune.
I have a 20 year horizon, which was the only reason I considered the plunge. Knew I was gonna be on the downside for awhile. Just keeping my fingers crossed.
Grim,
Do you have hx on 11 Undercliff in Montclair?
Just curious.
sl
“You would think after all that has happened people would stop trying to call you out on these Grim. Bought in the bubble I guess.”
MIW [198],
Very simple. Long and wrong.
nom
Re clot and mike:
I say we just trump them from the start and go thermobarics….
#208 comrade:Just keeping my fingers crossed.
For what??
Grim-
Nice try on the comp killer but that house has a white roof and there are very houses with white roofs so that house is different.
use ethylene oxide as the fuel for the thermobaric bomb and you even have a chemical weapon in case the bomb fails to detonate. Ethylene oxide kills pretty much anything and everything!
vodka (206)-
It’s not so much that liar loans are out there, screaming for you to take them.
What’s happened is that all the subprime fraudsters have resurfaced in the FHA/VA world. And, they haven’t forgotten how to slice & dice an app.
At the end of the day, a mortgage guy who can wield the Holy Trinity (white-out, scissors and glue stick) can beat the FHA system like a redheaded stepchild.
ket, 214
I thought ethylene oxide was the crap they ripen apples with…
geez…. time to go review chemistry..
sl
vodka (214)-
Someday, you will be a very useful person.
““You would think after all that has happened people would stop trying to call you out on these Grim”
no no..
don’t get me wrong. I’m not trying to call anyone out.
i just thought some of those RE posts are more background noise then something representative.
but, i don’t have all the data, i could be wrong, and I’m heavy on the bottle :)
SAS
Kettle is man with a plan.
Being a Hudson County boy the home of corruption I see nothing wrong with that. Go for it or pay for every one else, isn’t that what has been pissing a lot of you off. It is to late now the country is going to hell in a hand basket.
kettle1,
Those daisy cutters last used in Iraq looked pretty impressive. I think they were called BLU 82s? Everything in a 600 yard radius is pretty much gone. We could clean up Newark and Irvington with about 3 or 4 of those things.
Of course, when everybody gets too fast, loose and greedy, they end up like my neighbor, Anthony:
http://www.mycentraljersey.com/article/20090204/NEWS/90204052
He’s not going to like being some Crip’s wife.
sl 216
I believe they use ethylene C2H4, not ethylene oxide C2H4O.
“Who Owns America?”
http://tinyurl.com/b2auyu
vodka (222)-
They sell that at Home Depot?
Gary,
the BLU’s were thermobarics bombs. they used a liquid fuel mixture that was spiked with super fine aluminum powder.
The story is that british pilots mistook them for nukes at first.
Thermobarics are excellent for leveling urban areas as first the suck everything into the fireball and then the detonation blows everything back out.
The marines came up with a handgrenade version for iraq.
SAS 218 wasn’t referencing you,check out my 201.
clot 217,
i may have been renditioned by then…
gary!
How’s the knee (and what’s news?)
sl
today’s ghetto was 2005s neighborhood in transition. yep. better get in now. prices are sure to rise. uh huh.
Ket…222 thanks… next time I won’t blow up the fruit that I’m trying to ripen! :)
sl
clot 224,
nope, but you could probably make it with out to much trouble, if you are a determined individual.
easier to just go with gasoline, aluminum powder and not try for the chemical weapon portion
clot 221
eesh.
sl
kettle1 [225],
Gosh d*mn, in the world of munitions, that BLU 82 has got to be one of the sexiest forms of destruction I ever saw. That’s quite a picture of the devastation. I gotta get me one of those! :)
Ket, 227 “renditioned by”
Gone blonde today…. I had to look this up…
sl
Going to get in trouble boys. Trade recipes at a GTG. For the cake of course.
still_looking,
What’s happening? :) I’ll shoot you an email tonight or tomorrow… give you the lowdown!
Just checked on SRS maybe get more in the morn.
mike,
dont worry, i make all this up as i go. i may have seen a reference to some of this in a Macgyver episode once.
do you think i actually know what i am talking about???
Oh and my fav, if you want to pump up a hood, nickname it after Soho. WoHo, SoJo, you get the point. Real estate agents are adorable.
Gary!
What happened to our gtg?
Please, will someone call a definitive date for a GTG; a place centrally located where all can attend?!
when looking is Asbury in 2002, we were told that it was destine to be the next South Beach. yep.
lostinny,
OMG, I just posted as you said that!! Yes, I want a GTG, anywhere!!
What ever you say bud. I know nothing.
Sargent Schultz defence!
destined even
Barbara,
Man, I love you… your rants are just dripping with sarcasm!! :)
another question for the hive mind:
look at the data before 1994 and after 1994 for U3
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_lsF4HSdqo04/SYyOTbhomjI/AAAAAAAAA7Q/NJ2sbdObS0Q/s1600-h/U3+Backcast.bmp
what happened? the pattern after 1994 is reminiscent of an unstable system, rapid fluctuations before it falls apart…. ever see a video of the tacoma narrows bridge?
my take, and i could be way off, is that, 1994 could be the beginning of instability in the job markets. notice that 1994/95 was a next sudden expansion in growth (look at the DOW AND S&P around 94/95)
thanks gary. I try to keep the rants re related and all true. I think most RE agents are even creepier than evangelicals.
What is central for a GTG. Spam is having on in the southwest.How about northeast NJ. Where do 17,80 & parkway meet or there abouts.
My wife and I offered $560k for this property in 2007 when the asking price was $640k.. Owner countered at $635k and we walked away.. thank goodness.. Montclair current tax assessment on this property is $695k.
mike,
that would be clifton
I nominated Rich for the Bergen County GTG… or maybe he offered? Ah heck, I dunno.
sl
on = one
BTW the title of my next book will be
Is Heaven A Pyramid Scheme?
But I digress.
Regarding KET: do you think i actually know what i am talking about???
[whistling] far as I know… uh… he’s…. uh…. just the janitor… uh… right? Right?
Uh..yeah.
sl
kettle,
“do you think i actually know what i am talking about?”
i don’t know what i am talking about.. i eat too much HFCS.
SAS
I love this post. I read the blog regularly – rarely post. We moved to NJ from CA in Dec. of ’05. Sold our home in CA and have been sitting in a rental (Montclair) since. EVERYBODY has been telling us we were foolish while we patiently sat in belief that if we waited we’d be better off. TO THIS DAY local Montclair real estate agents tell us “prices don’t move in Montclair you’d better jump in now…” HA! and double HA! Sooooo happy to read this post!
Kettle 251 I know we tried Clifton twice Grim ,Lost & me both times. You are not far as I remember.How about Clifton, Gary it is not far from BC or Morris, I will take the hike from Sussex.
Ket on 247 I see what you mean,interesting.
i can make a Bergen GTG.
SAS
answered my own question….
i mixed up SA and NSA data sets….
Kettle what I was fishing for was Cliton but can’t get these people off their key boards. Tried.
SAS you should be in Clifton in no time from Lodi.
“SAS you should be in Clifton in no time from Lodi”
yup, it will be the first time i left Lodi in 30 years.
:)
SAS
oh and btw:
Sidley Austin set up Madoff’s hedge fraud using securities-lending and debt-offering services of the Global Custodians in such areas as racketeering sub-prime mortgages and hurricane catastrophe bonds.
but you didn’t hear that from me….
SAS
Gary is centrally located and will travel to any destiny of the GTG. I just want to see EVERYONE together.
can anyone say 1989?
i’m sure omama could.
but hey, what do i know.
SAS
SAS`yea sure. It is not BC but every one in BC & Morris are like half hour at most, me that is another story. I grew up in NJ know the roads & the towns, Clifton is a good central local for it.
My wife and I offered $560k for this property in 2007 when the asking price was $640k.. Owner countered at $635k and we walked away.. thank goodness..
I’ve heard this story over and over again.
Except it is always from the perspective of the seller. Seems everyone has a story about “the one that got away”. Err.. rather “the offer we should have taken”.
75#, clot, your average cost is around $90. next stop is $45.45 before reaching my target of $25.25.
>Clotpoll says:
February 6, 2009 at 4:14 pm
Doubling down on SRS right now, and I don’t think my pulse rate has gone up.
It also makes life easy on the grim man that makes this blog possible. Though he would never push it or say it. How about it.
Two banks taken into receivership this Friday.
From the FDIC:
California Bank and Trust, San Diego, CA, Acquires All of the Deposits of Alliance Bank, Culver City, CA
Alliance Bank, Culver City, California, was closed today by the California Department of Financial Institutions, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was named receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with California Bank & Trust, San Diego, California, to assume all of the deposits of Alliance Bank.
Regions Bank, Birmingham, AL, Acquires All the Deposits of FirstBank Financial Services, McDonough, GA
FirstBank Financial Services, McDonough, Georgia, was closed today by the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with Regions Bank, Birmingham, Alabama, to assume all of the deposits of FirstBank Financial Services.
sas [263],
I hear the $ is stored in banks of an allied nation, teflon coated, bordering the Mediterranean.
SAS,
Clot called the next trend.
Big holes.
Gaping holes.
Big black gaping holes where comps used to be. Doesn’t matter what kind of comps used to be there, highball, lowball, anything. Now we’ve got nothing.
We’ve got geographic areas and price ranges completely devoid of recent sales.
When we had comps, we knew the trend. Maybe it was up, maybe it was down.
Now we’ve got no comps and no trends.
How do you value a property in that environment?
Replacement cost? Incomes? Mark to myth?
If appraisers have no other choice but to start basing comps on rental incomes, watch out.
grim,
can you pull hx of 11 Undercliff in Montclair? thanks.
sl
grim 273
worse yet? based on affordability?
with unemployment tapping on the door impatiently.
sl
MLS: 1280118
Listed: 11/29/00
OLP/LP: 789,000
SD: 02/28/01
SP: 725,000
MLS: 2064316
Listed: 3/30/05
OLP/LP: 1,295,000
DOM: 123
Expired
MLS: 2200938
Listed: 10/05/05
OLP: 979,000
LP: 899,000
SD: 3/6/06
SP: 964,000
thanks..
just a blast from the past….
sl
Sir John Templeton said that there were many times during his lifetime that houses sold below replacement value. I think we might be about to see another one of them times.
Grim any info #2615030
Safe 278 I think we may be there already in my town.
Whooo Hooooo Bank failure Friday rallies on…
Westamerica Bank, San Rafael, California, Acquires All the Deposits of County Bank, Merced, California
sl
Grim any info #2615030
4 Winding Way, Vernon
Purchased: 12/28/2001
Price: $160,000
MLS# 2527336
List: 6/8/08
OLP: $239,900
Reduced: $227,900
DOM: 183
Expired
MLS# 2615030
List: 12/9/08
OLP: $199,900
Reduced: $189,900
DOM: 59
Now listed as a short sale, so the owner must have HELOC’ed cash out. Owner did put in new kitchen cabinets, new master bath, some other work.
Factor in the cost of improvements and this is quickly approaching a 2001 price.
Whooo Hooooo Bank failure Friday rallies on…
Three?!? Wow County Bank was large, 39 branches.
Grim if you look at the pics , not bad.
Taxes not to bad either. Thank you.
Really nice size rooms too. My wife calls it the priests’ house see all the RC statues, not that I care being RC myself.
…ok…. so tell me.
Why am I so not convinced that the PPT or our government can fix the downward spiral that we are in, in any practical way?
Buy stocks to prop the market?? And then what? When jobless, homeless (!) folks can’t afford to buy stuff or even rent for that matter…. how will these companies have stock prices that reflect reality?
Won’t their P/Es reflect it — or will they just fudge earnings?
I don’t get it. I don’t see how anything but time and pain will correct this mess.
Then again… I’m just the cook.
sl
OK charts fixed!!!! just the one little mix up…..
http://maldream.blogspot.com/
Now here is the down side , long way off road like an acre. Dirt road not to wide so I have to widen & pave. In the winter you would not get out without road upgrade not steep but alittle curvy. At 2001 only 2 years to go I guess I’ll wait & see if it goes to the bank. At 140 it is a go.
gary says:
” I just want to see EVERYONE together.”
You sound like my mother.
WTF means what the fitch?
BOA shares up 30% after downgrade.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10462456/2/bofa-citi-hit-by-fitch-downgrades.html
Gary 265
has someone offered you immunity if you set the rest of us up for a sting operation? Should grim go ahead and prep his press release?
Pared-down stimulus deal reached in Senate
Full Senate vote expected within days on $780
billion proposal
Here comes my bear mkt rally/dead cat bounce!
sl
#288 mikeinwaiting,
That does look pretty decent.
Only 780 somebody ain’t getting their payoff. Oh, not, just less money for jobs pork remains the same.What was I thinking.
Safe, I like it just can’t pull the trigger. But if I can get 100% finance with a rate based on income (I’m laid off, Wifes) what the hell. USDA here I come for a loan.
“We’ve got geographic areas and price ranges completely devoid of recent sales
Now we’ve got no comps and no trends”
Does the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice have standards for situations?
SAS
282 – Grim
Thanks for that. My friend’s mother was looking in Vernon beginning of Summer ‘2008. I suggested that she continue renting and referenced this blog. Prices on the Mtn Creek Condos have since dropped 20%. Unfortunately, this isn’t true across all NNJ.
“CEOs, Bankers Used Corporate Credit Cards for Sex, Says New York Madam
Wall Street Exposed as Convicted Escort Boss Reveals Client List of 9,800”
http://tinyurl.com/dnly4m
BlindJust: They have a way to go. I’m all over the Vernon market.If you have anything I can help with just post. As far as Mountain Creek goes they were not well built & are starting to age. I’m sure there are some good ones but tell her to be careful.
Thanks, Mike. I think the turbulence in Q4 caused her to put this on hold for at least a year. I’m still living in the 3br starter I bought in ‘1993. Was fine when I was single … had a gym, home office … Now that I’m married, 2 children, it’s getting a bit cramped. Oh and my office and gym are now in the dungeon (basement)
298…that is a fireable offense at a certain Swiss firm I know….
Any firm I know. There are separate groups that approve T&E so I’m not sure how that “slipped” by.
Mike:
“How about northeast NJ. Where do 17,80 & parkway meet or there abouts.”
I know you were thinking Clifton, but Paramus was the first thing I thought of when I heard those 3 roads together….
A realtor had mentioned that real estate downturns occur in sectors – bottom, mid, then top. Any thoughts on whether this holds true? Are we in the mid to top downturn w/ bottom stabilizing?
If there is a GTG I think I should come just to piss people off.
Isn’t the crusty guy with the cane on HOUSE? I don’t watch TV but I’m all over that guy.
Barbara, I thought AFE was always sarcastically agreeing with jb here. AFE is re agent?
Theo: Trying to get in the middle of BC,Morris,NYC. Clifton is about half hour from all.Lost gets there quicker than me from SI. Morris town, let say Ridge-wood, Hoboken all not a bad ride.
I on the other hand have a trek no matter where we choose. Like to stay out of BC police all over, 3 to 46 to 23 to 565 for me but not to much enforcement on that route.
Essex 305 ain’t going to ruffle my feathers,
by all means come.
Essex, bring your white dog. Put a service dog tag on it. Everyone will forgive you if you have the dog.
It’s cute. Even CF will lay off if all the chicks are petting the dog.
I was at a get-together of Moms and had a little Sangria, but I listened.
House values.
Every one of the them knew the current appraisal value versus what they paid. Couple of them had tried to re-fi..no go.
The ones who bought in 2000 were not worried. The ones who bought in 2002 or later were not happy campers.
The only one buying was an in-family deal.
There are no arms-length transactions here. I was telling Nicholas he wasn’t factoring that in. None.
I’d bring him Pat….but he’s dead…so if he comes it would be in a tiny box filled with ashes…
Oh, what happened to him? He looked healthy on your vid.
Was that old?
I had two…one had lymphoma…one heart disease…14 and 15 years-old….Good dudes. RIP
I was reminded of your dog. The hostess tonight had one of those. It just hung out next to me all night and pushed on my leg whenever I stopped petting it.
But I hated that she had one of those collars on it. The fence/pain collars.
We have two other pups now….very cool….rescue doggies…but nothing like the old friends!
I have not scanned the earlier messages and don’t know if this is already posted.
Three banks shuttered today:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=awVzj7vYpwTE&refer=news
“Bush SEC Holdovers Cite Executive Privilege, Refuse to Answer Questions at Madoff Hearing”
Since the privilege is the PRESIDENT’s, one would think that B.O, could waive it.
“when looking is Asbury in 2002, we were told that it was destine to be the next South Beach. yep.”
It has the same weather, no?
#319 Shore Guy,
I hated the track at Asbury Park high school. Had a track meet there and twisted a knee running on the cinder track full of pot holes.
One of the guys in the field events got hit in the head with a discus. I told him he was lucky it wasn’t a javelin.
kettle, #184
Thanks!
Another unrealistic sale for 2005. The majority of comps at that time were not there. Dumb buyer, stealing agent and appraiser. They were never real numbers. Real people never bought at those numbers.
“this is half of a house in the ghetto (below Springfield)”
…and the reason it sold for almost 400K in 2005?
the reason–you guessed it–is that subprime areas are hit with foreclosures. None of the comps presented was a “normal” house in a prime area with (an even close to) 50% off. By normal mean not beaten down, commercial space etc. For example, normal is
142 Wyoming Ave, Maplewood
but this is less than 25%
Unfortunately for sellers/fortunately for buyers prime areas have not gone down as much as this blog and its comps try to indicate
Exaggerating helps no one.
Future Somerset County Comp killers
156 Old Stirling Road
Warren, NJ
Sold 562,000 2/17/06
current list 479,900
current list is 83,100/ 14.7% off 2/06 sale price.
15 Dickinson Rd Basking Ridge
sld 01/06/06 780,000
current list 718,800
61,100/ 7.85% off 1/06/06 sale price
26 Almond Drive Somerset
sld 11/22/05 252,000
current list 212,000
list is 40k/ 15.9% off 11/05 sale price.
72 OSWESTRY WAY, Somerset
sld 1/25/06 255,000
current list 239,900
list is 15,100 / 5.9%
#324
list is 15,100 / 5.9% off 1/25/06 sold price
off to work…. catch up with reading later….
sl