From the Philly Inquirer:
Defaults up, demand down at N.J. local banks
New Jersey’s community banks have stayed on solid ground during the economic crisis, but a leading banker predicts a turbulent future.
State and private-sector officials say New Jersey’s 108 chartered banks largely avoided the risky loans and exotic securities that have sunk financial firms worldwide.
Instead, the banks kept it simple, making traditional loans to homebuyers, consumers and businesses.
But now, with the recession deepening, many of those customers are defaulting, and the banks are losing money.
…
John McWeeney, co-chief of the New Jersey Bankers Association, says that demand for traditional loans is also falling, further slicing the banks’ profits.He says the state’s community banks are not going to be “immune from this recession forever.”
From Newsday:
Defaults up, demand down at NJ’s local banks
New Jersey’s community banks have performed well during the economic crisis, but some face a grim future of loan defaults and thinned profits, a leading banker said Monday.
New Jersey’s 108 chartered banks largely avoided the risky loans and exotic securities that have sunk financial firms worldwide. Instead, the banks kept it simple, making traditional loans to consumers, companies and homebuyers, according to state and private sector officials.
Now, with country mired in the worst recession in decades, many of those customers are defaulting, said John McWeeney, co-chief of the New Jersey Bankers Association, a trade group.
Don’t worry, the TARP will keep you warm.
CNBC is reporting that the “Bad Bank” idea has been dropped….
Link to the CNBC article in question.
Huh, they’re claiming to have a plan…
Back to the super SIV a la Paulson?
Are we just running in circles here?
reposting from the previous thread…If anyone has any ideas about this, I would greatly appreciate it. I have to make a decision soon…thanks everyone.
OT – but I need some help – long time lurker here, sold in 2006 and have been hiding out in an apartment since. I have a chance to renovate a house in Paramus, NJ. I would have 4 bed, 3 bath, 2800 SF, all new everything (electric, plumbing, kitchen, baths). Basically I would take a ranch, gut the bottom and add a level to the top. Taxes would probably go to 10K, price would be 600K total. I have lots of bubble money from the sale, and the mortgage would be very manageable (at least 70% down). Location is great, quiet, flat piece of land.
Do you think this is a good deal? Would this be too much? How much would I be overpaying if a worst case scenario takes place (down another 20% in the area)?
Thanks for any serious replies. It is a very tough decision…
“CNBC is reporting that the “Bad Bank” idea has been dropped….”
Tosh [3],
The fed has been abolished?
#5 – lol, why re-create what you already have.
rob, I’ll let the experts weigh in on your plan, but something to keep in mind about Paramus taxes: They’ve always been low because of retail. I don’t know if you’ve driven on Route 17 lately, but there are one hell of a lot of empty storefronts, with more to come. I don’t think Paramus taxes can stay low forever.
Investigating PSEG…
Sales to industrial electric customers declined 18.3% in the fourth quarter resulting in an 8.6% decline for the year.
Looking at their last earnings report, massive drop in cost of energy is allowing them to almost break even when considering loss of demand. Very interesting. When and if demand picks up again, could be a good play.
Rob,
You’ll need to secure financing for not only the purchase, but the extensive work. Construction loans are harder to come by lately. Consider a lower dp loan on the purchase in order to conserve capital for the build. Ideally you want to be in position to not need to secure a construction loan, not sure how viable that is.
I’m assuming you aren’t a builder, so how cozy are you with one? GC and subs will suck you dry. I’m hoping this isn’t a flip, slim chance for big dollars these days if you aren’t a builder. Be sure you choose a builder that you not only trust, but one whose financial position you trust as well. Lots of fly-by-night builders are probably itching for anything right now, you don’t want a builder (or subs) that are one payroll away from closing up.
Is the ranch in a good area? I’d be very concerned about over-improving right now. Would make getting your money back difficult. Lots of garbage properties in less-than-perfect locations right now. They might look cheap, but I guarantee you a $600k gem in the middle of two turds is going to look just as shitty.
How cheap can you get the ranch? Just some back-of-the-envelope calcs says your ranch is probably priced at about $400k right now.
Ground up you could do 2800 sq for about $300k, assuming no stupid-expensive fixtures or finishes. But good luck finding a buildable lot in Paramus for $300k. However, your remodel work would probably be running somewhere around $150-200k, a bit more expensive because of the additional time, demo, etc.
Aw shucks.
Clot just wants me because I can squirt milk out of a goat teet into a bucket 10′ away.
And you know, Shore was the only one to pick up on camel lips. I have to admit…I realllllyyyyyyy wanted to remove that sentence the moment I pressed “submit comment”.
Rob,
Not sure if you’re builder as well as buyer…
I was thinking you are planning on doing your own work?
If so, add in your time (labor costs) and loss of sanity that happens with any large scale job. It’s not for those with ADD/ADHD/FCC/EPA/MRE disorders… :)
Additionally, I ask:
could you find what you want, *WITH* the higher price, but already done? It might be worth the savings to your sanity to buy something done.
Rob,
Also, sometimes bigger is not better.
Does the neighborhood have houses like the one that’s there or the new one you envision?
A 2 storey monstrosity in a ranch neighborhood could be your a bad decision when you try to sell.
From the Record:
NJ building permits lowest since ’92
Builders started 19,000 homes in New Jersey during 2008, the state labor department said today. It was the lowest total since 1992, and another sign of the housing market’s distress.
“It was as weak a year as we’ve seen going back to the early 1990s,” said Patrick O’Keefe, director of economic research at the Roseland accounting firm J.H. Cohn.
O’Keefe predicts that the number will drop further this year, to 13,500 or 14,000 units, which would be the lowest total since World War II.
In 2008, he said, construction was fairly robust in the first half of the year, especially in Bergen, Hudson and Essex counties, where builders were putting up multi-family housing in redevelopment areas. They were apparently betting on overflow from the still-strong Manhattan market.
But later in the year, even those developers backed off — especially after the Wall Street meltdown and credit squeeze in September.
“Clearly, by the second half of the year, turmoil on Wall Street had taken its toll,” O’Keefe said.
Many builders are cutting prices to try to sell unsold homes, at a time when buyers are frightened to buy because they’re worried about job security and think home prices may fall further.
“As 2008 unfolded and the general economy slowed appreciably, the demand also dwindled,” O’Keefe said.
spammy (10)-
Talent is talent. ‘Nuf said.
“Clot just wants me because I can squirt milk out of a goat teet into a bucket 10′ away.”
tosh (3)-
Once again, it’s circle jerk as fiscal policy.
The big money’s already been stolen. It’s gone and can’t be traced.
Now, all these dopes in DC are just fighting over the crumbs and posturing for their constituencies.
Nikkei doesn’t seem to like this address.
Maybe they are upset about Obama’s Japanese history lesson, he called them weak and slow.
grim (17)-
I think the Japanese got pissed when O talked about the “lost decade” and accused them of not taking the right actions.
Too bad the actions we’re now taking are identical to the ones Japan took at the beginning of their crisis.
I’ll give O the benefit of the doubt here. I don’t think (as does Morgan) that he’s a psychopathic liar. However, I do think he is a moron.
lol, isn’t overspending what got us into this mess.. Hahhahahahahahah!
This package needs a monorail.
ROFL. Monorailcat.
http://icanhascheezburger.com/2007/01/12/monorail-cat/
Hopefully O’bama read this, what we need is Beluga whales blowing bubbles.
Japan’s Big-Works Stimulus Is Lesson
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/06/wo…a/06japan.html
Ohhhhhh! now look!
http://icanhascheezburger.com/?s=monorail
scroll thru all, there are some cool ones
correct link on Japan, Beluga whales.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/06/world/asia/06japan.html
New definition of “trickle down”:
– Pelosi and Reid bum rush O. They make the POTUS their byatch.
– O turns around and sucker punches the minority party, knowing that he doesn’t need them for achieving the short-term goal. Of course, the whackage doesn’t start until after O co-opts two or three strategic members of the opposition.
– O uses the press as a pack of lapdogs. We’re now watching a prime-time news conference in which reporters are asking questions that a 5th grader could come up with…that are also so closed-ended, follow-up questions are out of the question.
God help us all. The plunger handle is now fully engaged.
3 Whales? The number three isn’t at all bold and whales are not nearly swift enough.
i have to say so far – i think obama’s saying some good stuff. he sounds about as angry as some folks on this board.
he also seems to grasp the severity of the issue. he’s blasting people for buying houses out of people’s range and putting no money down.
and no, im not drinking the kool-aid
What we should be doing is spending money on building internment camps for the retiring baby boomers.
anyhoo, question for tonight’s morgue attendees:
do any of you use chat programs (free) between 2 (or more) ‘puters in the same house?
I need to chat and toss files between me and Mr Spam (who operates from his repository of dull diesel data about 40’ and some chilly lengths of floor from me…
I use Nassi at work, it’s loaded & nice but I don’t need to decouple 2 licenses to work while at home.
Any ideas?
he also seems to grasp the severity of the issue. he’s blasting people for buying houses out of people’s range and putting no money down.
Let’s see if he delivers by pushing for tighter lending standards. Somehow, I doubt it will happen.
He also talked about transparency and trust in banks and financial institutions. I sure hope Tim and crew don’t surprise him and go behind his back to suspend mark-to-market tomorrow.
“nobody even knows what is on the banks’ books. we have to open things up and restore some trust.”
i’m sure i’ll get hammered for this, but I do like what obama is saying. whether or not he can make it happen i have no clue.
GWB walked away from the table with a low stack and 2-9 offsuit. obama has no chance, but we’ll see …
OT
the chinese really like their fireworks. Heck of a show!!!
BEIJING, Feb. 10 — Old traditions may have clashed with the latest addition to Beijing’s increasingly modern skyline, as the nearly finished Mandarin Oriental hotel caught fire Monday night after being showered with a burst of fireworks.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hSPFL2Zlpg
Spend our way out is his answer?
Spend our way out is his answer?
Yeah, but it wasn’t his fault.
“nobody even knows what is on the banks’ books. we have to open things up and restore some trust.”
Given the ideas floated, suspension of mark-to-market, a bad bank, bailouts, it doesn’t appear that this is the case.
You can’t buy trust.
And just imagine if W was still in office.
What you most likely would have heard would have been nothing less than embarrassing. And most likely it would have come via satellite from his ranch.
Yeah but we would have had a new-que-lar powered monorail in the plan.
vodka (33)-
Too bad there’s no Chinese Ayn Rand.
A giant hotel construction, set ablaze by fireworks staged by a bankrupt totalitarian state?
Truth trumps fiction, I guess.
When you turn Maureen Dowd against you, it’s not going well.
Exhibit #1:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/04/opinion/04dowd.html
Exhibit #2. I like Biden laying close to 3:1 odds that none of the porkulus works at all:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/08/opinion/08dowd.html
I’ll take Biden’s laying 3:1 and boost up my stake in SRS, SKF and assorted shorts in other dead and dying sham corporations.
Monorail to fcuking hell. We’re building it now and don’t even know it.
I’m out. Time to watch Jack Bauer torture somebody.
thanks for the quick replies grim and bacon…
the builder is a family friend and my total mortgage will be in the 150,000 range…the neighborhood has at least half of the houses fixed up in a similar manner, and most were done 5-10 years ago, so they don’t look too McMansiony (boy, is that NOT a word…anyway). We are not looking to put up a monstrosity, but if you are gonna add a level you might as well do it right. Energy efficiency and green building will be a priority.
my only concern is overpaying…600k is alot of dough, and i don’t want to feel like a sucker after selling out early and giving myself an advantage…
so…Paramus, 600k, 2800sf, essentially all new. too much?
Spam,
Gmail has those features built in. for file sharing just open a network folder on one of the PC’s
Pres O is looking a rough around the edges, not nearly as relaxed as hew was during the election. I wonder how those initial up to speed briefings went?
he had a good point about the right – they doubled the national debt over the last eight years, why listen to them now?
i know, i know … different times call for different measures
(i fully admit to NOT voting for obama in the primaries)
kettle – you think it’s easy to sleep at night with the country going down the tubes?
he’s wound up and angry and i like it.
as for the suspension of mark to market … i really haven’t followed that story, but if you guys say it’s bad, hey, i’ll agree
Rob,
buy a few gold futures and sit back with a gin and tonic…
you might actually make money in the end and will be more relaxed ;)
Yikes,
“he’s angry” ppffffttttt hahahahahaha!
if he was so angry fire the tax cheats and the IB sweet hearts that are running his administration and bring in some ball buster!
Oh wait, then he would be biting the hand that feeds him……
at heart O is a true politico, regardless of how good his intentions may have been, his actions ( having his admin run by a bunch of crooks) speak louder then words
Dont work, i think all the parties are irrevocably corrupt.
Yikes:
suspension of mark to market:
basically this means that the market price does not exist and an “asset” is worth whatever TPTB say it is. At its come that is a command economy. Ask the russians how well that worked……
been in gold for a while…don’t forget i sold in 06 for a bubbly price…but i can’t be in this apartment forever…just looking for some well-informed, Bergen county specific opinions. thanks.
someone sent this to me. can anyone decipher?
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDJhYTZmMDRmNWNkMTI4MGE4YTMxOWVkNWQwZjQzNmY=Y
rob d,
There’s a guy who posts here occasionally named commanderbobnj.
He’s a contractor, and has mentioned jobs like that.
He might be able to give you an additional opinion if you get lucky, and he happens to read your post.
Yikes
Their point seems to be that the chart put out by pelosi is misleading. It could be dependingon hpw you present the info. I do not know how they are presenting it, but i am sure with a fair amount of spin.
The author is right, over all the recession of 80-83 had higher job loss then we do now (they peaked at about 20% U6)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_lsF4HSdqo04/SYz3r0ubEpI/AAAAAAAAA7w/PukOwbuKdes/s1600-h/Unemployment+1900+-+2009.PNG
A more accurate description of such data would be the chart that grim linked in the previous thread from CR
also consider that in these previous recession they didnt have 9 trillion in government money propping up banks
51: Yikes…
Here it is:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SZCHxEKSpHI/AAAAAAAAEfw/Zy6WIIoVRQk/s1600-h/job-losses-post-ww2.png
This adds all recessions since 1948-49, and yes includes ’82 recession.
I’m on new meds from anew doc and find myself becoming tired. My typing is becoming more frantic and fraught wit typos
Apologies if the video link has already been posted.
Surreal — And Must-See
02.09.09 — 5:15PM
By Josh Marshall
TPM Reader JC sent me to this interview with Nouriel Roubini and Nassim Taleb on CNBC. Here’s what JC wrote: “In this clip, Nouriel Roubini and Nassim Taleb are still being treated as a circus sideshow by CNBC… They’re predicting the end of finance, and offering the only clear path out of this mess that I’ve seen offered (with the knowledge to back it up), and CNBC keeps asking them for stock tips. It’s ludicrous. Wall Street media — CNBC at least — doesn’t realize how bad this is yet. They’re stuck in a bubble where they think everything will go back to normal in a few months….”
He hits it spot on. These two guys are talking about a deep structural crisis in the world economy. And these CNBC yahoos can’t stop asking for stock tips. Really surreal.
I’m watching it again now. This is a seminal piece of video. You have to see it. I’m not sure I’ve seen anything that captures — albeit unintentionally — the vast disconnect over what is happening today in the US economy.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1027496846&play=1
“I’m on new meds from anew doc”
????
sl (you have my email, right?)
Gator, 55
watching (listening to, actually) it right now….
It’s unbelievable, the ignorance of our media…
It’s like watching jr high physics student attempt to ask challenging questions to Einstein or Feynman….
They should be embarrassed, and they’re too stupid to even know it.
God help us.
sl
They aren’t even listening to them!!!
They just want to know “what are you invested in….”
The female dolt just touted “it must be a bottom cuz Gates et al were flocking to see these guys at Davos.”
sl
Clotpoll, I don’t think this was a matter of an architect having his plans distorted. The Fountainhead was a great book. I’m surprised the Chinese moviemakers haven’t made a miniseries stealing the plot. They’ve built more skyscrapers than anyone over the last 10 yrs. Nice to see the CCTV studios catch on fire.
SL
When CNBC tell you stocks are a waste of time for the average person, that is the time to get back in….
all disclaimers
omama = Bush
watch, Iraq troop drawdown by transferring them to Afgan & Paki while bringing in more troops, while increaseing the private contractors (2-3x) (aka. Haliburton, KBR, L3, CAT) in Iraq.
there, that your troop withdrawl from Iraq.
and you want change.
Bush causes the problems, Omama acts like savior so you will go along with anything.
marketing 101
you just bought brand omama, now go buy an ipod (since they share some of the same marketing team).
yup,
SAS
now, back to RE
SAS
#42 moderated. I think it’s because I mentioned J@ck B@uer.
rob (51)-
Here’s mine: get out. Now.
“…just looking for some well-informed, Bergen county specific opinions. thanks.”
Spam,
I have had the, um, pleasure?, of milking goats before, but never tried to direct the flow to a bucket 10 feet away.
Gator (56)-
I’m pretty sure Dennis Kneale has “666” tattooed somewhere in his scalp. As for the rest of them, their behavior is proof perfect that we’ve entered the Endtimes.
“encourage firms to buy the assets ”
So, are we to believe that rational investors will purchase an asset worth $.20 for $1? I don’t think so. That leaves us with two choices, either :1) the purchasers are irrational (in which case they just help further scr-ew the system) oe) 2) they will be massivly subsidized with your money and mine (in which case you and I are massively scr-ewed). Either way, we better get ready, ’cause here it comes.
” I don’t think (as does Morgan) that he’s a psychopathic liar. However, I do think he is a moron.”
I am confused. I thought THAT was bush?
“This package needs a monorail.”
Don’t think for a moment you aren’t going to get monorailed by this thing.
clot,
i do not think that obama is an idiot. unlike bush i believe he has more then a few firing neurons.
The problem is once you sell your soul you dont get it back
“he’s blasting people for buying houses out of people’s range and putting no money down”
And yet, if he allows for cram-downs, or other modifications to principal, he is rewarding those very people.
Stu says:
February 9, 2009 at 4:10 pm
Clot. I’m playing with gains only as well and not all of ‘em. ;)
Thank the lord I had the foresight to get out of my 401k at the complete tippy top.
Maybe i’m not following … STu, you cashed out your 401k? how severe were the penalties?
“They’re stuck in a bubble where they think everything will go back to normal in a few months….””
Gator,
I had a chance to sit and talk with a builder earlier today. At the beginning of our conversation, he was fully-persuaded that, come spring, things would rapidly “gert back to normal.” He works mainly for seven-figure types but even his workflow has slowed to a trickle – just enough to keep his crews working and not much on the books beyond May. After we chatted for a good 45 minutes, I thought he might perform sepuku on the spot.
So much for spreading sunshine wherever I go.
jam says:
February 9, 2009 at 5:00 pm
Any mortgage guys out there think they know which way rates are headed?
well they’ve been going up for the last two weeks, but some folks seem to think it’ll take a dip to 4% for the market to spring back.
problem becomes: if they go that low, inflation will destroy us.
even if they don’t go that low, inflation may hit everyone hard.
golden rule: “You can always refinance … you can’t change purchase price.”
That rule deserves an asterisk … you can re-fi if you have equity. So dont plan on that for 8-10 years and you’ll be in good shape.
rob d says:
February 9, 2009 at 5:21 pm
OT – but I need some help – long time lurker here, sold in 2006 and have been hiding out in an apartment since. I have a chance to renovate a house in Paramus, NJ. I would have 4 bed, 3 bath, 2800 SF, all new everything (electric, plumbing, kitchen, baths). Basically I would take a ranch, gut the bottom and add a level to the top. Taxes would probably go to 10K, price would be 600K total. I have lots of bubble money from the sale, and the mortgage would be very manageable (at least 70% down). Location is great, quiet, flat piece of land.
Do you think this is a good deal? Would this be too much? How much would I be overpaying if a worst case scenario takes place (down another 20% in the area)?
sounds like fun. but plan for property taxes to skyrocket … NJ is on the verge of bankruptcy.
70% down … nice job on your previous sale. and we thought 35% down was significant ….
shore (68)-
Meet the new boss; same as the old boss.
Eloquence does not equal intelligence.
O = Shrub with tan
Shore (72)-
Exhibit #1 in my Obama-as-dolt case.
Surreal — And Must-See
02.09.09 — 5:15PM
By Josh Marshall
TPM Reader JC sent me to this interview with Nouriel Roubini and Nassim Taleb on CNBC. Here’s what JC wrote: “In this clip, Nouriel Roubini and Nassim Taleb are still being treated as a circus sideshow by CNBC… They’re predicting the end of finance, and offering the only clear path out of this mess that I’ve seen offered (with the knowledge to back it up), and CNBC keeps asking them for stock tips. It’s ludicrous. Wall Street media — CNBC at least — doesn’t realize how bad this is yet. They’re stuck in a bubble where they think everything will go back to normal in a few months….”
He hits it spot on. These two guys are talking about a deep structural crisis in the world economy. And these CNBC yahoos can’t stop asking for stock tips. Really surreal.
I’m watching it again now. This is a seminal piece of video. You have to see it. I’m not sure I’ve seen anything that captures — albeit unintentionally — the vast disconnect over what is happening today in the US economy.
COME ON….THESE ARE THE DAYTIME LIGHTWEIGHTS THAT ARE UP AGAINST SOAP OPERAS, REALITY SHOWS AND GAME SHOWS. IS JUST THE FOX-NEWSIFICATION DUMB DOWN. I WOULDN’T DRAW A CONCLUSION SUCH AS “the vast disconnect over what is happening today in the US economy.” WHAT HYPERBOLE……
Shore (74)-
I’m in RE. Imagine the looks and comments I get when I open up to folks like your builder friend.
I can actually see myself being blacklisted for life in the eyes of the people to whom I deliver unpleasant news.
It’s all good, though. I don’t mind being blacklisted by people who will shortly be bankrupt and ushered out of the game for at least 10 years.
If I’m wrong on all this, no big. I’ll go back to searing foie gras and hassling with dishwashers.
Yikes, I don’t necessarily agree with tossing money around like chicken scratch, but Chart 2 shows an increasing rate of loss. Ignoring the politics of Chart 1, you can clearly see this worsening trend [The lines are getting closer.] And this is despite the fact that the comparisons ignore the change in the black economy.
So I’m not sure how the author arrived at the conclusion that there is some magical slower rate of reaction that would be optimal.
Shore
I’m dealing with a contractor, finishing up a kitchen right now here at the the Shore. Started the job it 9-08, almost done. Seen huge savings and flexibility on the part of the GC and the suppliers as we supplied the materials and appliances.
Probably saved 35% over 2006 when we first bid it out.
The GC is really worried about 2009, 2010. I agree with him.
Chi (79)-
O came on Bloomberg this afternoon, and the moderators had a good conversation with him.
Which I think confirms that: a) CNBC is both reflective of- and a creation of- the average yahoo investor; and, b) the end of days is nigh.
lord of huh? (82)-
Started 9/08? Are you building a kitchen, or a missile silo?
Kitchen, 99% done, already have the silo ready and stocked.
http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/nva/fuo/1028402734.html
Anybody like really fresh sushi with those bottles of cheap wine?
LOST: WTF ARE YOU?
I give you leaked Depeche Mode….it may be taken down at any moment.
Fragile Tension…..nasty dirty little perversion of retro rock!
http://music-devoted.blogspot.com/2009/02/depeche-mode-fragile-tension-demo_08.html
Wall-to-Wall
Clot (82)-
My moniker harkens back to a sweet classic movie.
sl, we need a doc out here. There’s only one (maybe) for a big area of Mont. Co., MD, and that one doesn’t accept insurance….
Here, I found you a nice location for a farmette. Water’s not so great, but nothing’s perfect. Great schools.
http://tinyurl.com/bhrzud
I’ll even come and do the stalls for you three days a week and exercise the four leggeds. But I don’t brush teeth.
Spam, tell her it’s a good deal. At least tell her it would give her something to do for the next ten years.
O.K., it’s not such a great deal, but it’s a pretty good location.
How long before stories like this start coming out of all NJ towns?
http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/story?section=news/local&id=6649148
How about we talk about inflation/deflation.
Decreased consumer spending, deflating prices, decreasing production, limited innventory, printing dollars = too much paper for too few goods.
This sh#tstorm is just getting started.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fbc46330-f612-11dd-a9ed-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
Where’s mah damn bailout. Sheet.
低价网络广告 QQ:224549200 注明”广告”