From the Asbury Park Press:
A pair of bills being drafted by state Sen. Jennifer Beck, R-Monmouth, that would revise farmland assessment laws would help keep New Jersey’s agriculture industry productive while preventing wealthy landowners from exploiting the system’s tax loopholes.
But a couple of elements key to ensuring that farming survives — and unwarranted preferential tax treatment does not — must be addressed before the bills become law.
Beck, along with state Sen. Stephen M. Sweeney, D-Gloucester, has introduced a bill that would set standards for crop intensity and livestock capacity that would be used to qualify property for farmland assessment. That would help separate truly productive land from acreage with just enough bee hives or Christmas trees to generate the laughably low $500 in sales currently required to gain a farmland assessment.
Unfortunately, the Beck-Sweeney measure only raises the income threshold to $1,000. It should be closer to $10,000, which would protect legitimate working farmers while weeding out people taking advantage of the tax law.
A second bill Beck has yet to introduce would establish another level of tax benefits for those who want to preserve their land, but wouldn’t qualify for farmland assessment under the new productive-farm rules. For landowners willing to forfeit development rights on their property, the bill would provide a tax break that is lower than working farmers would receive, but higher than landowners who want to retain development rights.
first!
nerdy
3b – it appears as if the 15k IS a tax credit. if your tax bill is 10k, then you owe zero, and you roll 5k over to the following year.
if you’re sitting on the sidelines do you jump for the 15k? who knows. probably something tbd on an individual basis.
we already bought late last month when wells got us a 4.875 fixed rate (no points), so we’re moderately excited about the 15k.
(what’s dirty is that there has to be a direct connection between the republican who proposed this tax credit and his own real estate biz)
From the Star Ledger:
N.J. commercial real estate vacancy rates will stay high, report says
Major office buildings that dot the state’s highways and tower over its cities will continue to have high vacancy rates this year because of the “economic chaos” that is hammering New Jersey’s work force, according to a report being released today.
The state’s office market will not turn around any time soon because of relentless job losses in transportation, trade, and financial and professional services, according to the Sitar-Rutgers regional economic report, which called 2008 “a year best forgotten.”
…
It provides further evidence that the state’s economy could be in for a prolonged slump because of the worldwide credit crisis and a severe recession that began more than a year ago.
“The scope of the downturn, the combination of tighter lending standards, job losses and consumer retrenchment implies a weak economy going forward,” said Joseph Seneca, a Rutgers professor and a co-author of the study. “Owners of commercial properties will see increasing vacancies and decreasing rental income.”
“THE real-estate market is such these days that one thing has become apparent: If some one is selling in this market, it’s usually because of the 3 D’s: death, divorce or debt” – Donald Trump on his blog.
– page 6
grim 4 in mod
#5 Fifth!!!
#2 yikes: 15k tax credit, is not compelling in my minds. I will take another 15k off the purchase price.
Thought I saw a story on News 4 this morning about a protest/rally of sorts at a hedge fund managers house. Could have sworn they said the protest was about this manager NOT wanting to rewrite the subprime loans they are holding to lower principal and interest. Anyone else see this or have any idea where this was happening? Hoping I can get on board and start holding counter demonstrations on behalf of Citizens Who Buy Only What They Can Afford.
#3 yikes: The 15k is it appears only for 2009. Would it be retroactive to 08 in your case, or did you close in 09.
Traffic this morning is horrific and my train is packed, where all the unemployed are going to? Where’s the recession?
#10 frank: Seriously its getting old. We know it will only be a resession when all activity has stopped, and you lose your job.
3b [11],
You’re assuming that he is employed.
#13 BC True
Traffic this morning is nonexistent and my train is packed as they are running with fewer cars, what are all the unemployed going to do? What a recession!
http://optionarmageddon.ml-implode.com/2009/02/06/peter-schiff-stimulus-will-lead-to-hyperinflationary-depression/?ref=patrick.net
Mike Morgan extended screed. Probably 5,000+ words, obviously banged out in one, stream-of-consciousness, unedited take.
This actually ranks with his two Barrons’ articles. Just great stuff. And, paralyzingly scary.
He’s called every shot. Why would you second guess him now?
Sample:
“The numbers are staggering, and things are not getting better. We are now turning away foreclosure work for asset managers, because we simply can’t handle the volume. Moreover, as prices continue to fall, the commission we earn on the real estate side, are not enough to cover our expenses. In some areas, most of the homes are selling for under $100,000, in markets where you paid $100,000 for a lot four years ago.”
“How Safe Is Our Insurance? – Send in the clowns. I need a laugh. Last week Barron’s ran a piece by Jonathan Laing that sang the praises of Hartford Financial. The Hartford tanked 16% on Friday, and they asked the regulators to ease up the rules. Bring in Will Rogers to remind us that “stupid” got us into this and “stupid” can’t get us out. Aside from Laing’s ability to put out some really bad stuff, he and everyone else seems to miss the big picture of our insurance companies . . . they’re broke. Kaput. Finished. Toast.
No one has yet to unravel their assets when it comes to real estate and joint ventures with builders and developers. This brings me to one of my favorite groups (to short), the builders. You see, builders and REITs and other real estate speculators have partnered up with insurance companies and pension funds . . . to of the biggest suckers and soon-to-be-revealed biggest losers in this financial crisis. These are the guys that funded so many high rise condos, shopping centers and builder joint ventures. These deals have not come unraveled yet, but they will. Take for example joint ventures with builders. Many of these are land bank deals. The land is still carried on the books of pension funds and insurance companies at inflated prices. In fact, I can tell you much of the land is carried at 100% of cost, while the true value is less and 20 cents on the dollar.”
http://realestateandhousing2.blogspot.com/2009/02/mike-morgans-rants-raves-and-ramblings.html
#16 clot: I am proud to be an American, where at least I know I am free.
From the Record:
Encap: The money is gone, the dirt still there
More than 18 months after the collapse of EnCap Golf, state agencies that promoted the project are no closer to recovering more than $50 million in taxpayer money that disappeared with the Meadowlands venture.
The cleanup of nearly 800 acres of North Jersey’s most polluted property — land that sits in view of Manhattan’s skyline — will also remain illusory for the foreseeable future despite the state’s repeated guarantees that EnCap would save the day.
Last Tuesday, a frustrated federal court judge threw out EnCap’s claim for bankruptcy protection, unloosing what many now fear will be a long and bitter series of lawsuits as bankers and insurers fight over the dead project’s carcass.
…
For years, state officials who issued fast-track approvals and poured hundreds of millions of dollars in public financing into the EnCap plan hailed it as a model for smart growth and future brownfield development.
Former Gov. James E. McGreevey and his commissioner of community affairs, Susan Bass Levin, referred to EnCap as New Jersey’s “crown jewel,” a “win-win-win” for the state and boon to the environment.
Last week, it was hard to find any state official even willing to take a phone call on EnCap.
From the Record:
Rutgers report describes post-recession economy
Once the storm has passed, prepare for a “new normal.”
A Rutgers University report due for release today argues that the economic landscape in the post-recession age will be wholly changed, with a “less potent” financial sector, tightened global credit markets, slowing home ownership and higher rates of consumer savings coupled with lower consumption.
James W. Hughes and Joseph J. Seneca of Rutgers University’s Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy write that the economy will inevitably find a new settling point, given that the sources of the current recession “took the form of unsustainable bubbles and trends.”
“The platinum years of seemingly unrestrained financial activities propelling real estate markets to new heights are now history,” they write in the Sitar-Rutgers Regional Report, which offers a non-technical overview of the economy’s decline.
They make the case that recessionary forces remain in full effect and homeownership rates may still have a way to fall. At the national level, that rate grew from 64 percent in 1994 — the average of earlier decades — to 69 percent in 2004. By the third quarter of 2008, the rate had fallen to 67.9 percent — still above the norm.
The report includes charts that show a downward trend in consumer savings as a percentage of disposable income since the early 1980s and a steady rise in consumption, and depict state job losses that have bumped New Jersey’s unemployment rate — an estimated 7.1 percent through December — closer to the national average. The federal jobless rate climbed to 7.6 percent in January from 7.2 percent. The New Jersey numbers are due later this month.
Once the recession runs its course, “prudence and pragmatism” are likely to replace the risky behavior of recent years, Hughes and Seneca conclude.
3b (17)-
I will hunt you down like the running cur you are. :)
hahah – Bill Gross graphic of Wild E. Coyote, super genius:
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2009/IO+Feb+2009+Gross+Beep+Beep.htm
Bill Gross on Squawk, screeching for the Fed to step in and start buying Treasuries.
Things have become so painfully obvious and predictable, we should be able to now call every new disaster well before it happens.
Step 1 of every new decline seems to start with Bill Gross’ exhortations for the gubmint to dig the hole even deeper. Then, it happens.
Sheesh, more Americans probably know the names of every Housewife of Orange County that the name of Bill Gross, the guy who is fueling the doomsday machine.
From Orange County, no less…
ricky (21)-
We were using the Wil E metaphor here two years ago.
Gross is a little slow on the uptake.
Can we stop this silliness about the Fed “buying Treasuries”.
This makes no sense at all.
Where does the Fed get the money to buy Treasuries?
From the Treasury.
Where does the Treasury get the Money to give the Fed?
Treasury either issues more treasuries to raise the capital, or it prints the money to do so.
If the Treasury needs to issue Treasuries, then the operation is a complete wash.
If the Treasury prints the money, then the net effect is ultimately inflationary, pushing up yields, the opposite effect the operation is intended to have.
Unless, of course, the goal of this operation is to sell billions in overpriced Treasuries to the government without causing a massive selloff in the open market. In which case, the taxpayer gets shafted and the banks/bankers profit.
From Gross’ letter, linked in #21:
“PIMCO has recently been contracted to assist in several publically announced programs which have helped in that effort: the CPFF, which has benefitted commercial paper yields, and the Federal Reserve’s purchase program for agency-backed mortgage loans, which has lowered 30-year mortgage rates to 4.5% and fostered the affordability of new and secondary housing prices. These two programs, in our opinion, have been the major policy successes to date – not because of our involvement – but because they have supported and increased asset prices whose decline has been the major deflationary thrust behind the real economy. ”
Er, Bill…mortgage rates are HIGHER today than they were the day the Fed started buying agency paper.
If that’s a “success”, I’d hate to see what his definition of “failure” is.
grim (25)-
Circle jerk as fiscal policy.
Clot,
Gross measures “success” based on the increased profit his firm generates by operating said programs.
Now this is what I call winning big in AC.
From the Ledger:
Couple takes $15K from Taj Mahal Casino Resort vending machines
A couple hits it big at the Taj Mahal Casino Resort, leaving Atlantic City with $15,000 more than when they got there, but they didn’t strike it rich at the slot machines or roulette wheels.
Police said the pair robbed 60 Coca-Cola vending machines on hotel floors of the resort complex.
Video surveillance shows a man and a woman using a master key to open the machines and clean out all the cash inside.
From the Ledger:
N.J. welfare lines grow longer as jobs continue to dry up
In down coats and scarves, grim-faced and shivering, hands jammed in pockets, they arrive at the Essex County Department of Citizen Services in East Orange before the doors open at 8 in the morning.
Everybody dreads the line: the people standing in it who feel demeaned and angry, the workers inside who brace for bad tempers or tears, and the people who drive past, fearing they could be standing there any day now
By 9 a.m., the line snakes down South Clinton Street and extends along Freeway East. Once the people clear the metal detector, they’re in line again — some for hours, baby carriages in tow — divided into their different needs. Every week hundreds will leave empty-handed because county workers are too inundated to help them all. They are given an appointment and told to come back later — sometimes 10 days later.
All over the New Jersey, the welfare lines are getting longer and longer. Victims of the recession are lining up to apply for food stamps and seek help paying for utilities, rent and subsidized health care in numbers that veteran social service workers have never seen before.
While the lines may run the longest in urban Essex County, rural Salem County and suburban Middlesex see the same thing: lines getting longer, lines made up more and more of people that have never stood there before.
YET ANOTHER NY Post classic….
http://www.nypost.com/seven/02092009/frontback.htm
syb (29)-
You were joking, right?
Syb 29
2 points:
1. perhaps if the cash entered the economy in an orderly fashion, but its all being locked up in bank vaults. When it does come out it will likely be quickly in which case there is a very big inflation risk.
2. a 1 mil asset sold for 200K while the fed prints another 800K isnt a 0 sum game in our current situation. The banks are getting cash from the government to cover their loses and then the treasury is printing money to support treasuries. they are printing in a 2:1 manner
3b says:
February 9, 2009 at 7:14 am
#3 yikes: The 15k is it appears only for 2009. Would it be retroactive to 08 in your case, or did you close in 09.
closed in 2009. they said you can spread it over 2 years. i doubt you can make it retroactive, but that’s an interesting thought.
#20 clot: Sorry clot, I could not resist.
You will have to get behind my wife in line though if you want to kill me for singing that song.
[32] chifi
Thanks!!! As a loyal Red Sox fan, that one made my day. Have to send that link to a few people in the office.
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2009/02/09/090209ta_talk_surowiecki
interesting graph:
And, in the case of public-sector intervention during financial crises, evidence for its dangers is surprisingly flimsy.
The International Monetary Fund, for example, has helped bail out developing countries across the globe. If those bailouts heightened moral hazard, you’d expect the recipient countries to be more reckless in their spending and borrowing, and outside investors to be more careless in their lending. Yet a number of studies looking at the effects of I.M.F. bailouts on things like credit spreads and capital flows have found little evidence for that. On the contrary, a 2002 study by Steven Kamin, of the Federal Reserve, found that, when it came to investing in developing countries, “investors appear to be discriminating among credit risks more carefully than ever.” Similarly, the U.S. government’s bailout of banks this fall hasn’t led them to lend rashly; indeed, they’ve been attacked for not lending enough.
Kettle (last thread)
I appreciate the advice on wiping the hard drive, but that was a bit facetious of me.
One thing that I do see as a possiblity from these resolutions is, if the Feds actually do pass laws that, according to the resolutions, nullify the Constitution, there are those who will call their state legislature on the resolution and demand that they back it up.
Conveniently, the same groups will offer to provide militia support to the state. That is when things will get interesting.
watch for crazy first minute of trading, kooky system problems are around
syb (40)-
Like what? Is the PPT going to start trading the open now…so that they can spend the rest of the day on the beach, guzzling Red Stripes?
Walked around Asbury Park yesterday at about three in the afternoon. Given the great weather, it wasn’t surprising to see lots of people on the boardwalk, but it was almost shocking to see how crowded the restaurants were, both there and on Cookman Ave. The stores were a lot less crowded, but there were many shoppers/browsers around. Made me wonder where the recession was, too.
“Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) — The stimulus package the U.S. Congress is completing would raise the government’s commitment to solving the financial crisis to $9.7 trillion, enough to pay off more than 90 percent of the nation’s home mortgages.”
I want my free house.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=aGq2B3XeGKok
“The Obama administration pushed back the announcement of a keenly awaited bank rescue plan until Tuesday as it pressed lawmakers to settle their differences over a huge economic stimulus package.”
They don’t want you to know where the old money is going until you give them the new money.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29089614
#42 – Made me wonder where the recession was, too.
IDK about Asbury but I was in the city shopping on Sat and I’ve never seen Century21 as dead as it was. Usually the place is like X-mas eve all the time but it was empty. Marc Jacobs and DVF on sale too.
I checked out Lord and Taylor in midtown as well, an absolute ghost town. It was the same way the last time I was in about a month ago.
Bloomies was about usual, maybe a touch slower.
It also was obvious the city shelters have had funding cut. I haven’t seen that many homeless on the street in a long long time. Chelsea looked like the Chelsea of old.
http://www.stamfordadvocate.com/localnews/ci_11658972
Protesters gather at CEO’s Greenwich home
“Hundreds of protesters rallied on Glenville Road outside the home of a financial company’s chief executive officer to denounce predatory mortgage lending practices.
Organizers with the Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America, a nonprofit homeowner advocacy group, gathered outside the home of William Frey, CEO of Greenwich Financial Services LLC.
The move was part of the nonprofit group’s national accountability campaign to get company executives to support refinancing loans to keep people in their homes, according to Liz Floyd, one of the organizers and a counselor with the group. Floyd said the group believes the executives contributed to the subprime mortgage crisis.
Protesters, wearing yellow T-shirts and bearing signs that read, “Fix our loans, save our homes,” and “Shame on you, CEO,” were trying to get the message to Frey that his efforts to stop loan modifications were hurting thousands of people who are losing their homes in foreclosure, she said.
“These guys know what they are doing,” said Marissa Pirazzi, organizer and senior counselor of the group. “We’re just trying to get people to restructure loans.”
…. so I guess a contract is a contract, until its not.
peas (42)-
Go back to those restaurants on on Tuesday or Wednesday night. It’s not the weekends that matter to places like those. The weekend crowds are a given. You hit your break points by driving good traffic to the “shoulder” time periods.
New Mandarin-Oriental hotel in Beijing is on fire.
That’s gonna leave a mark…
[46] Seneca
NACA is a group that is allied with ACORN, and is actually a lot more active in DC than ACORN, which is more about “direct action.” Other than that distinction, NACA, ACORN, Greenlining, NCRC, and, of course, Inner City Press, are all what I call “the usual suspects.”
Surprisingly, when we used to meet on the battlefield, I found them civil and sportsmanlike, even Matthew Lee of Inner City Press. They understood that it was your job to oppose them and they didn’t personalize it.
Nom,
I know you were joking. Thought i’d run with it though ;)
That’s gonna leave a mark…
Wonder if it is insured by AIG…
plume (49)-
I’m not willing to give these people that much leeway. They trade on emotion and use class warfare to undermine the concepts of sanctity of contracts and personal responsibility. Always easy to find stupid people to rally behind the cause of “sticking it to the man”, but dumb soci@lists are, at the end of the day, dumb soci@lists, no matter how you dress them up.
I hope all those sons of bitches end up living under overpasses.
[35] Yikes
Hmmm. I wonder if I can post-date my closing.
Or better yet, find some reason why the closing was a nullity, and bring an action to nullify it, with, of course, the provisio that I will release everyone if they agree to a novation and re-closing.
I know, more off-the-wall lawyering, but hey, a guy can dream, can’t he?
Market no like Geithner delay. Market wants free cash for crap right now!
[52] clot,
Never said I agreed with them, only that they did not blame me for my clients and were civil in battle (which was on a regulatory level, not in the streets).
Often, these groups oppose a particular institution to get $$$$ from it. Jesse Jackson was notorious for this.
On one deal years ago, I noticed that a particular group that had lined up against my client was also the recipient of the client’s largesse. This is biting the hand that feeds you. I pointed this out to the CRA director who replied “yeah, they are gonna get a call from me about that.” I never found out what happened; either the group withdrew from the coalition or its funding application for the next year was denied. Rough down there in the trenches.
clot, tosh—I have no doubt those restaurants will be dead on Tues/Wed/Thurs. What made it so surprising to see people in them this past weekend is the fact that in years past these restaurants were all empty even on sunny Sundays.
[50] ket
Scary how much you know about that though.
Guess I will have to make you the Minister of Nompound Security.
RE: 46
Disgusting.
When it comes time to pay the bill these pigs at the trough cry to restructure. $300 jeans, mansions, wave runners, escalades, season tickets…. sigh… I know this has been discussed ad nauseum but everytime I read a story like this there’s a knee jerk outrage recation. Shameful.
These clowns need to restructure themselves back into the rental units from which they came.
I would have rented a bulldozer and cleared these people off my lawn myself.
I know, more off-the-wall lawyering, but hey, a guy can dream, can’t he?
I would have expected a little more creativity.
Sell your house to your neighbor, and buy his. Claim primary residency but don’t bother moving. Just trade mail every afternoon.
In two or three years, after the credit is gone, trade back.
Come on PeaceNow,
Yesterday was the most beautiful weather day in the past 90 days of an unusually cold winter. Everyone came out of hibernation for a weekend. Change the 60 degree temps to a cold rain and see how busy the boardwalks are. Not everyone is broke…yet!
10Y yield marches onward and upward.
What was the lowest spread between the 30 year fixed and 10y treasury?
Is a 4.5% mortgage even possible at this point without direct subsidies or guarantees?
“Traffic this morning is horrific and my train is packed, where all the unemployed are going to? Where’s the recession?”
That people in that traffic jam are all rushing to the unemployment line.
But here’s the real question: What will countertops look like in the post-granite age?
Inquiring minds want to know…
Inquiring minds also want to know what the Mahwah area condo market is doing and how much below asking one should be thinking of bidding.
Heard on Bloomberg that 30-year fixed is almost up to 5.5%. More of your money flushed down the old potty.
As long as the government keeps manipulating, I will keep shorting. And let’s hear it for the senate who has decided that 3 trillion in tax cuts over the next 10 years is the solution!
Our government is run by a bunch of morons. What a damn shame.
#60 – That’s a good point stu, it was nice out yesterday.
Asbury has been pretty busy the past 12 or so times I’ve been through. There a bunch small interesting little stores that seem to be doing well. I hope it stays that way. The town needs it.
The condos are a different story. There’s that big complex off of Lake Ave that is f-ing empty. I’m amazed every time I drive by it. It doesn’t take a Cassandra to divine what’s going to happen to all the building on Ocean Ave. They tried to go from rubble to $500k studios with nothing in between. It just doens’t work that way.
stopped by an open house in hamilton mercer county, 4br/2b colonial in university heights, strong neighborhood for that town. they recently slashed the asking price by another 20K and now are asking only 300K.
http://www.remax-newjersey.com/remaxnj/modules/internet/search/includes/mapsearch/listingpopup.asp?mlsid=201&mlsnumber=5464073&l=y
There was a line waiting to get in. 4 cars out front and at least 10 people inside.
The house isnt that great but made me wonder if the housing hokus pokus rates and reinflation plans are actually working. did anyone see anything similiar?
I assume it had alot to do with the weather, but overall i am seeing houses selling around here. Prices are being reduced mariginally but nothing too drastic.
From the WSJ:
IMF Chief Says Nations in ‘Depression’
By BOB DAVIS and ELFFIE CHEW
International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said the world’s advanced economies — the U.S., Western Europe and Japan — are “already in depression,” and that the IMF could slash its global growth forecasts further. The “worst cannot be ruled out,” he said.
The IMF managing director’s comments to reporters after a speech in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, represent the most dire estimate thus far of the state of the global economy by a major political figure, and were far more pessimistic than forecasts released by the IMF as recently Jan. 28.
Political figures generally avoid using the word depression because of the association with the Great Depression of the 1930s, when unemployment hit 25% in the U.S. and economic output fell even more steeply. Last week, when British Prime Minister Gordon Brown used the word “depression” to describe the global economy, his aides quickly said it was a slip of the tongue.
In the U.S., chief White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers said that while the economic situation was serious, it wasn’t as bad as Mr. Strauss-Kahn seemed to suggest.
“We were really in a very different situation than” the Great Depression, he said on ABC television’s “This Week with George Stephanopoulos.”
Since the events of the 1930s, there hasn’t been a widely accepted definition of economic depression.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123412011581660991.html
From Reuters:
Fannie, Freddie to channel mortgage rescue: sources
Sun Feb 8, 2009 5:28pm EST
By Patrick Rucker
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Obama administration is crafting a mortgage-rescue program that would see Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ease payments for hundreds of thousands of borrowers and offer a model for Wall Street to do the same, sources familiar with the plan said.
Late last week, officials from the Treasury Department and Department of Housing and Urban Development worked with the companies’ regulator to agree on standards for who could get relief and how they might coax other finance companies to follow their lead, said two industry sources familiar with the deliberations.
Those discussions were still going on over the weekend with Treasury officials trying to weigh the merits and costs of several possible approaches, said one source familiar with the talks.
Washington’s two largest foreclosure-prevention initiatives of the last 12 months have fallen flat with only a handful of borrowers having been helped despite promises that hundreds of thousands would qualify.
Officials hope to clear the red tape and rigid terms that have doomed past mortgage-aid efforts without burdening taxpayers with many billions of dollars in funding costs.
“They want to get rid of all the high-cost mortgages out there and figure that there are 1.5 million people who could stay in their homes this year if their loans were modified,” said one industry source who asked for anonymity. “But it’s just really complicated and expensive to do these kind of workouts.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE5171EV20090208?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews
veto,
Price it right and buyers will come.
The price was tempting enough to get you to come out, you didn’t think it would attract others?
last tuesday in the snow I had to do an errand by the beach around 7pm. I was shocked beyond belief even for me that the expensive steak house near there that is always crowded on the weekends was packed and lot was filled. If anything now is a better time to go out. Babysitting is easier to get and restaurants have cut prices. People who did not do risky stuff should go out and reap some benefits.
Clotpoll says:
February 9, 2009 at 9:56 am
peas (42)-
Go back to those restaurants on on Tuesday or Wednesday night. It’s not the weekends that matter to places like those. The weekend crowds are a given. You hit your break points by driving good traffic to the “shoulder” time periods.
Farm assessment… we have a$$hats in Trenton.
Leave it to politicians to NOT understand.
you CANNOT LEGALLY have a density of more than 1 AU (or 1 horse) for the first 3 acres (typical, and that’s what it is where I am) then another 1 AU per each additional 1.5 acres so that at 800lbs per AU, you are allowed, let’s say 8 goats per 5 acres.
Let’s also note here for a second:
1. The EPA also has laws about CAFO’s and animal density
2. You cannot have animals near certain “things” (cat 1 streams, etc) so all water reduces your overall land usability…
3. Animals and farming operations come with “land overhead costs” that aren’t used in production, but are still necessary, such as storage barns for hay/feed, manure storage, machine/ equipment barns and repair shop, fueling station, means of egress (tractor roads), fencing and gates, water source and pumps, etc…
So back to my original statement above, if you put a floor on income, you are guaranteeing ONLY THE MAJOR PRODUCTION farms (think Cargill) will be allowed.
I have to have 6 (ish) acres for 8 goats, and I milk my goats for organic goat’s milk & cheese to sell, I’ll need my goats to produce approximately…hmmm…let’s see here … feed + pasteurization costs + vet + farrier + farm labor + taxes + non producing ewes = $638.00/gallon
Say bie bies to small farming.
If you google Concentrated animal feeding operation (CAFO),
your first hit is the wiki entry on “factory farming”.
We like factory farming? I’m confused now.
Jill–Soapstone is the new granite (or one of them). Subdued, hard working, nostalgic, DIY friendly and cheap if you go for the tiles instead of slabs or can transport it yourself. just buy it in bucks county–cheaper than NJ.
veto–to get the 15k tax credit AND live that close to Palermo’s tomato pies in Bordentown? I might buy it!
spam,
Hate so say it but small farming is kind of like pornography.
Tough to define, but you know it when you see it.
I’ve seen lots of these “farms” in Somerset. Hard to feel empathy for these “struggling farmers” who drive up to their stable in their Range Rovers.
Nothing funnier than seeing a wood shed out in front of a multimillion dollar estate in Somerset with a can nailed to the side. Woodland management, right.
I’m sure the owner makes $500 a year. Hell, I saw him step out of his Mercedes to drop that $500 in the can.
Ruth Chris has a $49 Package for a 3 course meal. The place was packed this saturday, probably because people thought it is easier to get in instead of next weekend (Valentines day)
I’ll wager the Asbury boardwalk will be busy in March, especially near the end of the month. Rain or shine. You’ll see.
16#, clot, stop promoting MM. he failed big time recently:
1) he was calling dow down 1000+ in the following week but dow went up almost 1000 pts that week.
2) he called china would have major riot by the end of Januanry. but chinese were celebrate the “year of bull” at that time.
no matter what you boast here, srs is on its right track to 25.25 stop.
Clotpoll says:
February 9, 2009 at 8:10 am
Mike Morgan extended screed. Probably 5,000+ words, obviously banged out in one, stream-of-consciousness, unedited take.
You sound like a young farm boy saying I Love Ewe for the very first time.
grim says:
February 9, 2009 at 11:02 am
spam,
Hate so say it but small farming is kind of like pornography.
Geithner Plans to Bring in Private Investment for Toxic Assets
will they be playing “send in the clowns” as background music?
Grim says: “The price was tempting enough to get you to come out, you didn’t think it would attract others?”
yep i am shocked that people are lining up for open houses in this environment, even with a 20% price reduction.
Asbury is going to return to the state it was in at the beginning of this decade. The stores that filled in are restaurants, small shops, and retail stores. These aren’t the strong industries in this current recession. Unfortunately, a lot of them will go out of business and the vacant commercial properties will cause others to leave for more desirable spots. Towns cannot go through a renaissance when the economy is in shambles. Asbury’s problem was that it’s revitalization was based on the phony real estate market. It was a good try, but it won’t end well. That Esperanza project is a disaster that will end the same way all those other projects near the Stone Pony did. It won’t be finished and you may even be left with an empty bare bones structure. I wanted Asbury to come back and I was impressed with what they did, but the tourism industry at the shore got clobbered last summer with the high gas prices. I’m not sure they can survive.
“I’ll wager the Asbury boardwalk will be busy in March, especially near the end of the month. Rain or shine. You’ll see.”
NJC,
I would not want to take the other side of that bet.
Bi,
Can we make a deal?
SRS is at 55. You say it’s going to 25. I say it’s going to the moon. If SRS gets to 80 before it gets to 25, then you can no longer mention those three letters ever again around these parts. Likewise, if SRS gets to 25 before it gets to 80, then I can not mention it ever again.
What do you say tough guy?
Asbury will do fine, it is mecca for rich gay men.
#77 – he called china would have major riot by the end of Januanry
This depends on what news sources you read and how you’re defining ‘major’.
10 year yields passed 3% mark. 2 of my 8 predictions for 2009 hit alreay in less than 2 months.
Guardian article , also on rioting in China.
Disclaimer; it a Guardian article.
“veto,
Price it right and buyers will come.
The price was tempting enough to get you to come out, you didn’t think it would attract others?”
Grim, Veto,
I was at that open house yesterday. While the house may have generated a lot of attention, that’s because it was priced lower than others of similar size but once you went in, you understood why. The walls all over the house were all dirty. The bathrooms were as well. There was muck developing in the vents. In short, the price decrease was more due to the fact that the inside wasn’t maintained well, but potential buyers can’t see that until they walk in. IMO, anyone buying that house needs to repaint every wall, pull out the rugs because they had dogs, redo all 3 bathrooms, and redo the kitchen.
Actually he was off by a month. I heard of some near riots in china at the Fortunoff bankruptcy sale. The china dept filled with bridzillas and 75% off place settings is about as big a riot as I have ever seen.
toshiro_mifune says:
February 9, 2009 at 11:16 am
#77 – he called china would have major riot by the end of Januanry
does jimmy and his partner for life
have a place in Asbury?
82#, stu, it is not a fair deal. From 55 to 25, it would be a 55% drop. by 55% increase, you at least need to put 85.
For what it’s worth, people actually slowed down to look at the comp across the street from us. Haven’t witnessed this since the fall. Of course, the weather was awesome and this past weekend is the typical kick off of the Spring RE season (pant up demand from Winter waiters).
crap, I should also mention that there was another open house around the corner, exact same model and property size. It was priced 30k higher. This place was spotless, completely updated, and was beautiful both inside and out. There was essentially no interest judging from the sign in sheet.
CNN article on govt fears of rioting in China.
FTFA;
Disclaimer; It’s a CNN article.
“82#, stu, it is not a fair deal. From 55 to 25, it would be a 55% drop. by 55% increase, you at least need to put 85.”
Make it 90 Bi. I’ve already seen your track record.
Is it a deal?
this is just in. maybe it is the riot you guys are talking about:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/02/09/cctv-building-on-fire-ico_n_165186.html
#96 – No, that’s most likely insurance fraud.
Bi,
You’re going about this all wrong.
There is no question that SRS will absolutely tear through 85, you’d have to bi not to see that. Whether stu’s target is 80, 85 or 90 is irrelevant. It will get there and the moves at those levels will tack on five dollars per day. What you need to do is limit the spread you need to clear on the downside.
It is entirely plausible SRS touches sub $40 momentairly if some major market event were to occur… I don’t know, NYC gets shelled with money filled mortars… try to limit your hurdle and bait him in. You’ve got one bullet left, Bama/Geither’s plan tomorrow. Sorry.
RE: “cheap if you go for the tiles instead of slabs”
Granite/stone tiles are awful, just get laminate.
From Bloomberg:
JPMorgan Doubles Prime-Jumbo Mortgage Loss Projection
JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts almost doubled their projections for losses on some prime-jumbo mortgages underlying securities, created at the start of the U.S. housing slump, because of soaring defaults.
Losses on so-called hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages backing 2006 and 2007 prime-jumbo securities will reach 8 percent to 10 percent, according to a Feb. 6 report by New York-based analysts John Sim and Abhishek Mistry.
“The pickup of defaults in prime during the second half of 2008 has caused us to nearly double our loss projections on prime hybrids,” the analysts wrote.
Defaults on home loans not labeled as “subprime” that back “non-agency” mortgage securities, the debt that sparked the global financial-market meltdown, have soared as home prices continue to tumble and the U.S. recession deepens. The share of prime-jumbo mortgages at least 60 days late climbed 0.71 percentage point to 5.29 percent in the month covered by January bond reports, according to JPMorgan.
About $500 billion of prime-jumbo bonds exist, according to Memphis, Tennessee-based FTN Financial. Jumbo loans are larger than what government-chartered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can buy or guarantee, currently $417,000 in most areas and as much as $625,500. Hybrid ARMs offer a few years of fixed interest rates, before switching to payments that vary with indexes.
Zieba, my target is much higher than 90. I even bought some at 130 (fortunately, very little). And I sleep well at night, that is knowing that Bi’s black box never fails.
In 2007, when BI was saying that XHB was the place to be and that SRS was dung, my position was down about 50%. Somehow I pulled in almost a triple bagger with…long-term gains. I’m currently down about 30% and once again expect to obtain long-term gains. What Bi does not understand is that long-term means more than 1 month. I’m playing a macro-economic trend. Bi is playing with tiddlywinks and nothing is landing in the plastic cup.
96#, zieba, stu:
i don’t have problem if srs goes back to 200 again. but please figure it out why this is happeniing:
SRS was closed at 85.90 when IYR was at 80.50 on July 9th, 2007, before market blew up. Now IYR is traded at 32.50, more than 50% off from 1.5 year ago but SRS did not increase by 100% (even not0%). It has been down alomst 35%.
Ben Says: “I was at that open house. Anyone buying that house needs to repaint every wall, pull out the rugs because they had dogs, redo all 3 bathrooms, and redo the kitchen.”
yes, the place smelled like the dogs owned the people living there. definately beat up, basement was tiny and the powerlines are out of sight but only a block away and the schools are on the downward trajectory. i wouldnt pay 250K for it.
Still, with all the layoffs and job insecurity i am scratching my head watching re activity pick up around here, i hope its all just a seasonal anomoly…
If the Treasury prints the money, then the net effect is ultimately inflationary, pushing up yields, the opposite effect the operation is intended to have.
Which means the Fed will have to print more money to buy even more treasuries; until the point where the Fed is the only buyer. After all, who will want to buy treasuries with artificially low yields knowing the Fed is printing like Gideon Gono?
The winning play for the Fed here is to signal that it may buy treasuries, thus creating demand for treasuries in anticipation of the Fed being a buyer in the market. Of course, this only works in the short term. At some point, the market will call the Fed’s bluff and speculators who purchased treasuries in anticipation of short term gains will cut their losses.
#98 – Losses on so-called hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages backing 2006 and 2007 prime-jumbo securities will reach 8 percent to 10 percent, according to a Feb. 6 report by New York-based analysts John Sim and Abhishek Mistry.
It won’t take a large number of losses in these groups to have a serious impact.
We now get to see well how the house of Dimon has been underwriting.
#45
“Protesters gather at CEO’s Greenwich home
“Hundreds of protesters rallied on Glenville Road outside the home of a financial company’s chief executive officer to denounce predatory mortgage lending practices.”
************
I saw the footage of this on TV and it was actually pretty scary. These people were on this guy’s front lawn — private property— it was like a lynch mob. Look, it sucks that people are getting foreclosed on, but no one forced you to get a mortgage.
#102 – Regarding the second paragraph, feels like we’re already in that position with the Fed MBS purchases.
When Congress approved the TARP on Oct. 3, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and then Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson acknowledged the need for transparency and oversight. The Federal Reserve so far is refusing to disclose loan recipients or reveal the collateral they are taking in return. Collateral is an asset pledged by a borrower in the event a loan payment isn’t made.
Fed Sued
Bloomberg requested details of Fed lending under the Freedom of Information Act and filed a federal lawsuit against the central bank Nov. 7 seeking to force disclosure of borrower banks and their collateral. Arguments in the suit may be heard as soon as this month, according to the court docket. Bloomberg asked the Treasury in an FOIA request Jan. 28 for a detailed list of the securities it planned to guarantee for Citigroup and Bank of America. Bloomberg hasn’t received a response to the request.
The Bloomberg lawsuit is Bloomberg LP v. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 08-CV-9595, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).
This could get interesting. If this makes to MSM then Bloomberg should run in 2012.
Skep 104
We should hang all these guys. If we get around 15 hangings this year I guarantee you people will thinks twice before screwing up on purpose.
Makes sense, houses sell on one thing only, that is Price. Putting a nickle into a home is a wast of a nickle. I home with 200K improvements priced at 75K more than a wreck next door will draw zero people to the open house. No one will see the improvements.
Ben says:
February 9, 2009 at 11:23 am
crap, I should also mention that there was another open house around the corner, exact same model and property size. It was priced 30k higher. This place was spotless, completely updated, and was beautiful both inside and out. There was essentially no interest judging from the sign in sheet.
#63 Jill – countertops…
we’re leaning towards swanstone or corian or one of those. butcher block is a pita & even though we love stainless steel doesn’t mean its a good resale option.
for kitchen floors we’re looking at old school (literally the cafeteria & hallways) tiles or some vinylness. need something that can get wet & take a scrubbing.
cabinets – if we do it, ikea. or we just save a little more & sit back & let someone else do it. throwing away a shower stall, toilets & whole house carpeting bit by bit sucks. i wanna park the cars in the garage already!
…. fyi ….
energy saving rebates….
so we got a new gas furnace – didn’t go energy efficient, just two cycle Aamana (i won’t buy a prius either), new AC, & a humidifier put in the autumn. now we have to have a rep. come out from the state to inspect. Luckily I’m off president’s day & they’ll come out between 9a & 1p. Actually an employee of Honeywell Utility Solutions will. It’s two state guys officed at Honeywell to take the calls. About 70% of all applicants get audited now. It used to be optional, i.e. not scheduled after 30 days you’d disappear from the list & still get your check cut, but now it’s mandatory requirement for any/all rebate, windows, insulation, etc. & they expect to get rather busy in 2009, soon, Tuesday in particular.
John, can you share which broker you use to grab bonds of 5K a piece. My concern is the commision would eat you up. thanks.
“This makes no sense at all.
Where does the Fed get the money to buy Treasuries?
From the Treasury.
Where does the Treasury get the Money to give the Fed”
Grim,
C’mon. It is simple. The Treasury has $25, so they lend it to the Fed and they keep $25 on the books as an asset. Then, the Treasury prints “Bond” on a piece of paper and collects $25 from the Fed, knowing full-well that the Fed is not going to sell or trade the Bond. Now the Treasury has its original $25 PLUS the $25 the Fed gave it.
Who needs fiscal or monatary policy — we have MAGIC!
This is insane!
Securities that currently have no buyers will be sold to hedge funds for 5 cents on the dollar, while handing them capital they can use to short the firms whose collateral the securities were originally issued. If you think a company will fail, you buy $100 million of its securities, the Fed hands you $500 million, and you use $400 million of that to buy credit default swaps or put options betting against the company. Your maximum loss is $100 million, but the $400 million is more than enough to buy insurance against that.
Whats the profit on such a trade, 5X, 10X, 20X????? why not just hand these guys a bag of free money and call it a day
U.S. Weighs Fed Program to Loosen Lending
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123396660738259033.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Hoping to jump-start the financial system, the Obama administration is considering turning to a new program run by the Federal Reserve that has been a challenge to launch and depends heavily on hedge funds. The Term Asset-backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF, was announced in November after investors stopped buying securities backed by consumer debt. Under the $200 billion program, the Fed will make loans to almost any U.S. firm that is willing to use the government financing to buy securities tied to credit-card, small-business, student and auto loans.
can we form a NJREReport hedge fund and play this game?
Nom,
How quickly can we get the paperwork done?
Smart
My dad gave me one dollar bill
‘Cause I’m his smartest son,
And I swapped it for two shiny quarters
‘Cause two is more than one!
And then I took the quarters
And traded them to Lou
For three dimes — I guess he don’t know
That three is more than two!
Just then, along came old blind Bates
And just ’cause he can’t see
He gave me four nickels for my three dimes,
And four is more than three!
And I took the nickels to Hiram Coombs
Down at the seed-feed store,
And the fool gave me five pennies for them,
And five is more than four!
And then I went and showed my dad,
And he got red in the cheeks
And closed his eyes and shook his head–
Too proud of me to speak!
– Shel Silverstein
“Still, with all the layoffs and job insecurity i am scratching my head watching re activity pick up around here, i hope its all just a seasonal anomoly…”
Veto, are you looking in the Mercer area? I don’t really see anything picking up from my vantage point. I do expect some what of a seasonal uptick but it will still be worse than it was in the Year of Year numbers. Here’s some comforting food for thought. We know a couple who tried buying a house in Bordentown a few weeks ago. They had everything set but the appraisal came in at 40k below the purchase price and the deal fell through because the bank wouldn’t loan them the money. Even if these people want to buy at the sky high prices, they won’t be allowed to.
a numbers perspective
http://ashizashiz.blogspot.com/2009/02/you-want-numbers-ill-give-you-numbers.html
Now let’s jump forward to June of 2009, some 18 months later. If we’re looking at 25% unemployment this coming June, then 13.9 x 25/10 x .75, or just over 26 million unemployed adults will be living under the poverty line. And that number represents 50% of the total number (kids, remember??): 53 million people living below the poverty line by June of this year: One sixth of the entire population of our great country, living below the poverty line. Isn’t math grand? And please recognize that these numbers are conservative estimates. For example, 79% of the fulltime employees in the U.S. work in the service sector. But with so much unemployment and so little capital and “credit” to be had, the service sector is going to experience a collapse that probably leaves my numbers a tad of the optimistic side. And I have a few questions: How are 27,000 some-odd food pantries going to help 53 million people in need of food? How are 53 million people going to receive food stamp subsidies from states that are bankrupt as we speak? How are the 6000 or so registered hospitals in the United States going to care for 53 million people who cannot pay their bills?
Europe’s New Wave of Toxic Debt
More toxic debt soon could come crashing through the global financial system. The surprising source: Europe Inc. Once-stodgy Old World companies, from cement makers to phone operators to chemical companies, went on an unprecedented borrowing spree over the past decade that has left them up to their necks in debt. Corporate debt in the euro zone stands at more than $11 trillion, equaling some 95% of the region’s economy, vs. only 50% in the U.S. Hundreds of billions in payments are coming due just as sales are slumping in the global economic crisis. In better times, companies might have gone to the bank to refinance. No more. Bank lending to euro zone companies plunged 40% last fall as the credit squeeze tightened.
http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/feb2009/gb2009025_570032.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_global+business
Grim:
At what cost are you cutting your throat?
All costs? You WILL WIPE OUT small farming.
NJ Is NOT a state with HUGE contiguous farms. Have you ever seen a farm tractor
driving down the road? He’s NOT joy-riding. He’s getting to his next field…which may be 1/4 mile or 2 miles down the road. NJ RE tax law says only contiguous land is counted, so, if he’s got 3 parcels, of 10 acres each, he’s got 3 #$% FARMS!!!
What you see “looks wrong” TO YOU; BUT YOU DON’T KNOW WHAT YOU ARE LOOKING AT. You are jumping to conclusions and assuming.
It “looks” like a small piece of field or small farm with a house…it’s usually part of a network of fields and land owned or rented by a single farmer.
Sorry to say it, but someone who farms trees is doing so with just as much right as someone who farms dirt or animals.
Most of my farmer friends have LESS than 20 acres. My largest farming friend is my hay farmer with 120 acres, but only 30 acres is tillable!!! The other 90 is woodland managed.
And yes, this guy’s wife drives an E (or S, I forget) Class Mercedes.
Did HE make the $ from farming? No. Farming is draining it. He made it as a home remodeler, she had a re firm that she sold to Prudential.
I’ll bet Clot knows his wife.
So this guy has 120 acres and he’s NOT pulling down 10K in profits a year!!!!
He will shut it down and sell it off.
Nice outcome. You REALLY showed us, huh?
This is a classic case of people in urban areas dictating to those of us in rural areas because of a misconception.
stu (81)-
You are trying to bargain with a person who has the self-discipline of a starving chihuahua (and a brain to match).
I use fidelity mainly, sometimes Smith barney. Fidelity charges like six bucks. However, the bid/ask sometimes get wide so it is hard to jump in and out unless margin is wide. But certain things like a muni trading below par you plan on holding to maturity, other things like junk bonds the bid ask can get wide, like 80 bid/84 ask so does should only be bought to hold. One thing weird is if they really want to get rid of a bond you can bid up to 1% less than the list price and other side will usually accept. That lowers the spread problem.
bi says:
February 9, 2009 at 12:03 pm
John, can you share which broker you use to grab bonds of 5K a piece. My concern is the commision would eat you up. thanks.
Obama uttered the D word
Obama said the nation is facing “an economic crisis as deep and as dire as any since the Great Depression.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090209/ap_on_go_pr_wh/obama_economy
#104 skeptic:it sucks that people are getting foreclosed on, but no one forced you to get a mortgage.
Yep just suck it up creampuff’s you will survive.
zieba (96)-
Great post there. The thing you don’t hear getting discussed at all is the fact that Fed/TreasCo is down to its last bullet with the porkulus and bad bank.
Amazing how much is being gambled on such a willy-nilly roll of the dice.
And another thing:
I work my a$$ off until deep into the night a lot of the time, I have a chicken with a broken leg living in my house, I have to unload about 600 lbs of feed tonight, (in the mud, thank you), and tonight I have to trim a goat’s hooves who has a udder infection and so I can’t TOUCH her udder; this is impossible considering she will kick and fight you every step of the way and you are more worried about ME saving $500 in taxes than what the banksters are taking?
(Because, yes, we are talking about $500 / year tax savings!!!!)
Wooohooo!
Come live here for a week.
*I DARE YOU*
clot,
you should get a kick out of this
The People’s Sheriff of Chicago
Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart, like his counterparts across the nation, has been evicting people from their homes in ever increasing numbers. In 2008 the Chicago Democrat and his deputies conducted 4,487 court-ordered mortgage foreclosure evictions, an increase of 153 percent over the office’s 2006 numbers. But on October 8 Dart stood before TV cameras and said he’d had enough. Criticizing banks and mortgage companies as heartless, careless and taking advantage of taxpayers, he suspended all mortgage foreclosure evictions. Suddenly Dart appeared to be the kind of lawman Tom Joad might have clapped on the back.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20090223/conroy
Talking to a family member yesterday, bought a 1 bedroom co-op 2 years ago, up in Ft Tyron park. (upper Manhattan)
Tried to talk them out of it, got the wasting money on rent thing etc.
Anyhow a 2 bedroom co-op came on the market in their building last week at an asking price of 200K less than what they paid for a 1 bedroom 2 years ago!!!
It needs work etc. but we are talking an apartment.
Is that a comp???
#115 Ben: I bet more than a few of these so called buyers out looking, are the last ones who should be looking to buy a house.
Also probably concerned neighbors too, wondering what their hosues might be worth now.
Also many out looking won’t realize there is a problem, until they go to get financing.
vodka (126)-
The only notable thing in the report is that’s the first Tom Joad reference I’ve seen in the media.
Of course, we’ve all been rendered so stupid and illiterate, nobody knows who Tom Joad is.
Stupid people are controllable people.
spam,
If small farmers want to keep the tax benefits of farmland assessment, they better keep abusers out and keep the profile low.
A property tax war is coming and there are lots of voters in those urban areas just waiting to be pandered to.
Don’t, for one second, think that you won’t be thrown under the bus by those urban politicos if a decision needs to be made.
Abuse makes for good media. Nothing like a front page splash of some executive paying reduced property taxes on his estate because of some program nobody has ever cared about before.
They’ll care now, and I don’t think they care about throwing the baby out.
clot,
was he on american idle???
ben, we hope to buy in robbinsville or pennington when prices come back to earth. Weve been watching the market closely and over the last month especially many of them have gone into contract. realtors around here keep telling us that mercer county is different than the rest of the state, which i know is not totally true but the Assoc of Realtors numbers show that mercer county was indeed one of the few counties to have positive price change yoy in q3 2008. see here… http://mercerrealtors.com/09/index.php?option=com_wrapper&view=wrapper&Itemid=121
of course they are slow to update the q4 numbers, i would be surprised if they arent severely negative.
I agree that prices have dropped by a pretty good amount over last two months and its good to know banks are tightening up the loan requirements.
Did you by chance see this one in West Windsor two weeks ago? small little overpriced cape on mercer county park side street. Same story with that open house, people came out of the woodwork and lined up around the block to see it. here it is…. http://www.dreamhomesmagazine.com/Home139587.html
TALEB ON CNBC right now??
wow, that’s a surprise
Spam,
The issue is the guy who owns a mansion on 4 acres of land in Marlboro and pays no property taxes since he sells $500 of llama fur to his brother every year.
I agree that the state is clueless and do not begrudge your point that they will do more harm than good with this poorly thought out change, but something needs to be done about these llama owners. And making the income limit go from $500 to $1,000 is pathetic. If they really wanted to fix the issue properly, they would. Instead, it’s just another case of sacrificing the middle class to maintain the wealth of the upper class. And we are the stupid ones who keep putting these billionaires in office.
He wants to see responsible people punished and out. He was asked for a name.
Bernanke.
“Of course, we’ve all been rendered so stupid and illiterate, nobody knows who Tom Joad is.”
Clot,
http://www.brucespringsteen.net/songs/TheGhostOfTomJoad.html
[130] clot
Some of us know who he is. The fact that he can come back scares the hell out of us.
well, I went out looking at a couple of houses this weekend– both “new” listings. the first was a relist from last summer which just came on the market at the same price they listed at last August. I told our agent that it was obviously overpriced then since it didn’t sell and it is even more overpriced now. Told her that it wouldn’t be worth bidding because our bid would be minimum 30% off. She knows that I am looking for a good deal, but I think she was pretty dismayed by this comment.
Second place we looked at sold in 2007 and just came on the market priced 15% above the 2007 price! I said, look, these people overpaid 18 months ago, so not only is their current ask unreasonable, but the house is worth 20% (at least) below what they paid.
At the end of the outing I thanked her for her time but said that I think we are just going to renew our lease because the sellers still do not get it. I am coming to the conclusion that the only transactions that will be happening this spring will be foreclosures and short sales.
Spam,
We don’t have any issue with true farmers, like yourself and your friends. The one’s that raise ire are the ones I drive by in Harding, that are obviously not true farms, but still get a tax break as if they were. It’s obviously rife with fraud when a multi-million dollar mansion is for sale, and one of the signs attached to the realtor sign says “Farmland assessed!” It’s not a farm for sale, it’s a mansion with discounted property taxes for sale. Come up to Harding and I’ll drive you around these places myself.
Then again, destroying this tax shelter puts all of the open space at risk, since you can bet many of these contiguous-land owners will happily sub-divide to make a nice profit.
‘to me…it’s just the beginning.’ says the Black Swan guy when asked, ‘are we there yet’ meaning a bottom.
he also trashed Tim G’s plan. Gosh i love him.
spam spam bacon spam says:
February 9, 2009 at 12:32 pm
Grim:
At what cost are you cutting your throat?
All costs? You WILL WIPE OUT small farming.
So this guy has 120 acres and he’s NOT pulling down 10K in profits a year!!!!
He will shut it down and sell it off.
Nice outcome. You REALLY showed us, huh?
This is a classic case of people in urban areas dictating to those of us in rural areas because of a misconception.
Just a clarification – farmland tax assessment have nothing to do with PROFIT. It is all about selling 1000$/ year worth or products.
Now I would argue that anybody who sell’s LESS than 1000$/YEAR total (remember not profit, total $ sales number)
TO me farmer is somebody who makes his/her living by growing/producing FOOD, FEEDSTOCK, Ethanol?? (biofuel, also I would call them oil companies and charge them extra tax for destroying food supplies), wool, may be WOOD.
If you fail to sell 500$ – it is your hobby. I’d say 10K is more appropriate.
No I do agree that if you have driving down the road? He’s NOT joy-riding. He’s getting to his next field…which may be 1/4 mile or 2 miles down the road. NJ RE tax law says only contiguous land is counted, so, if he’s got 3 parcels, of 10 acres each, he’s got 3 #$% FARMS!!!
It should be counted as one farm. But all land should be producing.
So do not complain about farmers – the ones who do it for living will be fine.
And ones who do it for hobby – will pay higher taxes as it is luxury and not source of existence.
I would actually remove acreage requirement all together and replace it with 10,000$/year income requirement.
those CNBC clowns. wow, Black Swan and Roubini just handed them their lunch.
i hope america was watching.
if im Obama, i call Taleb in and ask him his thoughts on what the hell to do. seriously.
Want to know what to do?
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!!!
[126] kettle,
This has happened in Philadelphia as well. As much as foreclosure and evictions suck, it is where the rubber meets the road when it comes to property rights in this country.
Want to make urban property affordable? Make it impossible for foreclosures and evictions to occur, and watch how affordable these places become.
FWIW, when NYC basically became a squatters camp in the 70s’s because the ability to legally evict became nonexistent, landlords turned to illegal evictions, and hired posses (sometimes made up of off-duty cops) to forcibly evict folks. In fact, in the worst areas, landlords were more willing to rent to illegals because this tactic would work on them.
sorry grim, 133 stuck in mod, thanks
I saw someone buying gas for their car today. Where’s the recession?
Go back to those restaurants on on Tuesday or Wednesday night. It’s not the weekends that matter to places like those. The weekend crowds are a given. You hit your break points by driving good traffic to the “shoulder” time periods.
I sit in with a buddy in Morristown some Wednesdays, and it is DEAD. The bartender says the weekends are still kicking there, but the rest of the week is empty.
[142] Al,
Further, how do you define income? Is it gross income or net? Taxable income? It is entirely possible for Spam and Senor spam to work hard at what we all agree is actual farming, get by, and still not have 10K in taxable farming income after deductions, depreciation, etc. Thus you would punish farmers for not being successful.
Spam, let me know if that is incorrect. As you rightly pointed out, I don’t know much about the economics of farming.
Look, when the Farmland Assessment program was put into place in the 1960s, the income requirement was $500.
Read that a few times if you don’t get it.
When the program was put into place in 1964 the income requirement was $500.
The income requirement was never indexed for inflation.
That income of $500 in 1964, indexed for inflation using the CPI-U, would be, roughly, $3,400 today.
Pinhead, says “I saw someone buying gas for their car today. Where’s the recession?”
lol, thats pretty hillarious.
#145
Nom– you hit the nail on the head. If you take away the legal mechanisms for enforcing contracts people will resort to extralegal means.
taleb:
“it’s not finished yet. it’s only started.”
Taleb:
“people are going to de-leverage, not leverage.”
Dr. Doom: “losses are mounting, they’ll only get bigger.”
He said we need to see 3.6 trillion in losses; we’re only around 2 trillion.
Galbraith on the crash… it has a familiar ring
James Galbraith picks up the argument for government intervention where his father left off. His prescription: Spend now, spend a lot, and spend some more.
If Timmy G has his way this is the last day you see three year bank bonds paying over 10%.
CITIGROUP NOTES 5.625% 08/27/2012 ISIN #US172967BP57 SEDOL #7666900
Price (Ask) 86.798
Yield to Worst (Ask) 10.154%
You’re not going to tell me these are legitimate farmers:
http://www.realestateshows.com/show.php?mls=strict&id=229948
http://www.obeo.com/Public/Viewer/Unbranded.aspx?ID=221319
#159
Nice “farms” in moderation.
“THEY KNOW NOTHING!!!!!” -Cramer
Stu/bi/clot:
Bi, the phenomenon of “market skew” with regard to the IYR/SRS pair, where one tracking stock appreciates more than others, is comprised of many factors not the least of which is market psychology.
Now, I can’t tell you why the best and brightest on Wall Street thought it would be a good idea to lend $600K via no-doc loan to a janitor in Newark nor am I able to rationalize IYR’s outperformance against SRS. I understand the mechanics of it but why someone would be bullish is beyond me.
What I can tell you is that Paulson, John not Hank, didn’t pay top dollar (or even medium dollar) when he placed his bets on housing to fall. The biggest moves come to those who are against market perception, thus by definition, the first of many to take the right side of the trade.
Bi, what is your case to be bullish RE?
Touting that IYR is up more than SRS simply implies that there is money there for the taking when these fools capitulate.
ok, back to horses, nompounds and comps.
“Touting that IYR is up more than SRS simply implies that there is money there for the taking when these fools capitulate.”
Bingo!
comrade nom deplume says:
February 9, 2009 at 1:18 pm
[142] Al,
Further, how do you define income? Is it gross income or net? Taxable income? It is entirely possible for Spam and Senor spam to work hard at what we all agree is actual farming, get by, and still not have 10K in taxable farming income after deductions, depreciation, etc. Thus you would punish farmers for not being successful.
Spam, let me know if that is incorrect. As you rightly pointed out, I don’t know much about the economics of farming.
From the paper:
Primary among the changes would be an increase from $500 to $1,000 for the minimum gross sales and provides for a review of this amount every three years which could then be increased.
So it si not income. And once again if you sell less than 1000$/year of produce – it is about 93$/month
SALES… Come on….. with tomatoes at 2-3$/pound, lettuce – 1.60 head at the grocery store – I assume farmers sell it for about 1/2 of that….
Should not be that hard to sell 90 pounds of tomatoes/month…
When I was growing up we had 2 acre lot total for everything – tomatoes, strawberries, garlic, cucumber, cabbage, some spices, some raspberries and such….
In summer we would sell 20 pounds of tomatoes/week easily. During strawberry season we would sell 2 buckets of strawberry, each bucket was about 8kg – 19 pounds.
That all was done after we made jams ate fruits and vegetables and pickled a lot of produce for our own consumption. It was what we did not need. (Just to give you a perspective – one year we had extra land left. I was about 12 at the time. I planted a bunch of garlic on that empty plot. Sold it in the fall and I bought myself a new bike with money, since parents would not give me money for new bike). I think average people do not realize HOW MUCH A LAND CAN PRODUCE.
NO Power toys – water from the well in buckets, shovel, and rake manually with hand tools.
We were not farmers as my parents had “real” jobs at a time. All done in spare time/weekends.
So do not tell me that 1000$/year requirement will kill farmers. If something it is a big joke.
veto says:
February 9, 2009 at 1:19 pm
Pinhead, says “I saw someone buying gas for their car today. Where’s the recession?”
lol, thats pretty hillarious.
I think it was me!!!!
WRONG WRONG WRONG!!!!
ALL WRONG!
********************************
(takes breath in :)
Here goes:
It’s NOT “$500”. It’s $100 per acre, for a 5 acre minimum, under farmland assessment.
OK, let me clarify: you need 1 acre (I
think, it maybe 1/2 acre) for your house, minimum.
Then you need an additional 5 acres, MINIMUM that each earns $100 in income.
If you own more acreage, each acre must produce it’s own $100.
So if you own 10 acres, and farmland assess 9 acres, you MUST produce $900.00 in income.
************************
The land must be contiguous. So if you have a 3 acre parcel and a 4 acre parcel, separated, you are f**cked.
RE: IYR vs SRS.
IMO, the skew is due to mechanics of the way leveraged ETFs work. Highly Path Dependent. I would be much more comfortable with a single short ETF. Alas, there is none for commercial RE. Maybe, deep, out of the money PUTs on IYR?
Syb:
If those are farms, then Old MacDonald must have been harvesting poppies.
NEXT, STU!!!!
IT’S NOT TAX FREE!!!!!!
ARGH!!!!!!!!!!
ARGH!!!!!!!!!
ARGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I pay almost 8K in taxes on a 200yr old house with 1 bathroom, 3 bedrooms (actually one is a closet) and no garage.
I pay NORMAL (NORMAL, STU!!!! REGULAR “HIGH” JOISEY TAXES!!!) taxes on my house the one acre of land it sits on.
I can only get farmland assessment on land I am farming.
When I finally got my Farmland assessment bill, I saved $290.00 that year!!!! WHOOOPEEEDEF***IN’HOOOO!!!!!
#166 – Are you sure about that?
http://www.state.nj.us/agriculture/FarmlandAssessmentGuide.pdf
5. Gross sales of products from the land must average at least $500 per year for the first 5 acres, plus an average of $5 per acre for each acre over 5, except in the case of woodland or wetland where the income requirement is $.50 per acre for any acreage over 5.
Syb:
If those are farms, then Old McRonald must have been harvesting poppies.
Next, I cannot farmland assess any land under or around normal structures….
So, any freestanding garage, backyard, flower gardens, play area, etc is NOT allowed to be under FA.
The state pretty much says you won’t be “farming” under or right up next to your house, so you cannot say you farm your entire property….they automatically exclude 1 acre (or is it 1/2?)
So if you own 10 acres, and farmland assess 9 acres, you MUST produce $900.00 in income.
From the same link above:
With 9 acres being farmed last year and this year, sales exceeded the minimum requirement of $520 for the 9 acres, the land will be eligible for farmland assessment in the next tax year provided a timely application is submitted to the municipal tax assessor.
Spam,
Once again, we’re not saying YOU are abusing the tax benefits.
clot,
saw a bumper sticker for you the other day…
I’ll keep my guns, my money, and my freedom, you keep the change!
Spam,
I hear you and feel for you. Quite frankly, I’m not sure why you do it?
One day, when land has value again, you will appreciate not having to paid the regular property tax rate on it. If I were you, I would sell all of the animals, forget the crops and put one llama on each acre. From what I heard, they do a pretty good job keeping the brush down and are quite hearty. Perhaps you could find a local school who would make the llama their mascot and would pay you $1,000 per year to parade said llama on the field at homecoming.
The last thing we want is for every legitimate farmer to take such a hit that they would rather subdivide their land for future development. Unfortunately, there ARE a bunch of non-farmers taking advantage of a tax loophole. What do you think Governor Whitman farmed on her land? I’m thinking investment income.
Grim,
You are correct. It’s .50 per each add’l acre, not $100. My head was up my a$$.
Big difference!
please don’t drive away the plutocracy. let them save the inner city, protect the environment & work the farms all they want. get idealistic, they leave & all you’ve got is inner city, woods & piles of fertilizer within an hour’s commute to nyc.
Sybarite,
Only the 2nd link worked, but let me ask you this:
Do you think farms only have mobile homes on them?
I saw NOTHING of the farmland, just a pretty house.
Mr Johnson (of J&J) keeps a couple hundred acres. His house is beautiful. But it’s still a working farm. Amigos, cows, manure, hay, orchards, fields, etc.
Should he live in a faded teal 1960’s mobile home sans wheels with a transcamaro in the yard for it to be considered a farm?
Skep (154)-
Aka the “Oklahoma eviction”.
Spam,
Do you consider yourself a farmer? Is this what you do to make a living? I’m not trying to insinuate anything here. Just trying to figure out a way for the gubmint to close the loophole without hurting the farmers.
Seriously, I can’t comprehend how someone couldn’t generate $1,000 worth of sales off an acre of land. I grow 20 organic tomato plants on less than a 100th of an acre and could probably sell at least $200 worth if I opened a tomato stand next to my son’s lemonade stand. How the hell could a farmer not? Are they simply farming for the property tax break? I just don’t the math here.
vic (168)-
Just pick elements of the IYR index for selected shorting.
That’s what I do when I get bored. One of these days, we’re gonna wake up and find SPG, GGP, PCL, NLY, etc are roadkill.
Good times.
#142 sybarite:will happily sub-divide to make a nice profit.
Whenever new home construction comes back;don’t see that happening any time soon.
Stu:
Why do we do it?
1. The same reason Grim keeps a blog. It’s a love, a way of life.
2. The FA program relaxes many laws with regard to zoning. My setbacks/sideyards and “building envelopes” are relaxed under FA. I can have more impervious coverage. (5% as opposed to 3% I think)
3. My small parcel/big house neighbors stop in and thank me for keeping a farm. So we’ve pulled the neighborhood together and that feels warm and fuzzy good…
Farmland Preservation – TAX POLICY
http://www.njfuture.org/index.cfm?ctn=9t45e1o30v9g&emn=5u92y86g2h42&fuseaction=user.item&ThisItem=468
Stu:
You cannot open a farm stand next your kid’s lemonade stand.
…unless you are farmland assessed.
That’s another “perk”.
Thanks Spam,
That’s sort of what I thought. So what do you think of the llama owner in Marlboro?
I grew up on a farm. It is the hardest, worst, most thankless work one can do, short of busting rocks in a prison yard.
I’ve witnessed first-hand the abuse of farmland assessment statutes, but it is insanity to penalize legitimate farmers.
Also, you cannot sell “organic” unless you are certified. So your tomato prices cannot be organic prices.
The real FA abusers own alpacas.
Alpacas are dumber and more docile than sheep.
spam (189)-
John thinks “organic” means that Mexicans pooped on it.
Were Frank not so aggressive, I might suspect that he is an alpaca.
Where does the money go?
Down the “instant hole”.
I *wish* I could make $200.00 off some tomato plants….sigh.
“Alpacas” is a Ponzi scheme.
Current Alpaca owners, who realize they have been “had” by marketing, then get to work enticing newbie Alpaca owners to buy Alpaca stock at even more ridiculously high prices…
191: ROFL…….!
Regarding Farmland Assessed.
You all forgot one MAJOR issue:
If you buy a farmland assessed property and DON’T continue farming it…. You then have the privilege of paying the ROLL BACK taxes on said property….
Yeah. buy a farm because you [well, yes, ME] love the lifestyle and such and then have NJ screw the shit out of you for it.
Please. I’ve seen far more TAX ABUSE in our own CONGRESS and other politicians….
sl
The US should be asking a version of this question and demanding an answer..
“The UK has been hit hard because the banks took on enormously large liabilities in foreign currencies. Should the British taxpayers have to lower their standard of living for 20 years to pay off mistakes that benefited a small elite?” he said. “There is an argument for letting the banks go bust. It may cause turmoil but it will be a cheaper way to deal with this in the end. The British Parliament never offered a blanket guarantee for all liabilities and derivative positions of these banks,” he said.
Professor Stiglitz, the former chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers,
oh… forgot… /rant off.
[mutters and bristles to self…grrrr]
sl
“I *wish* I could make $200.00 off some tomato plants….sigh.”
Sell ’em in Montclair!
At our local farm market, I kid you not, tomatoes often go for $4/lb. and people buy ’em.
Best is the seafood guy from LBI. The fish might be fresh, but I ain’t paying $10/lb. for squid (which I consider bait), but many locals do. His scallops are usually $22/lb. Regular fish tends to be between $12 and $18 per lb. I’m talking flounder and tilapia.
Alpacas as Ponzi scheme.
Thus ends today’s lesson in Why We Are All So Fcuked 101.
Stu how much for onions?
John only buys orga.smic onions.
sl
Stu has no time for growing tomatoes or onions, because his indoor grow room is eating up all his resources. :)
“Stu how much for onions?”
I don’t know, I no longer eat them!
Stu:
This Marlboro story?
“The issue is the guy who owns a mansion on 4 acres of land in Marlboro and pays no property taxes since he sells $500 of llama fur to his brother every year.”
It has to be false.
1. You cannot be farmland assessed on just 4 acres.
2. You NEVER “pay no property taxes”. Your taxes are reduced by maybe 5%.
3. He shows $500.00 income and pay income taxes, etc on it…
of the creamed variety….
sl
http://www.state.nj.us/agriculture/FarmlandAssessmentGuide.pdf
see page 9/10 about “rollback taxes.”
sl
U.S. Housing Market May Bottom in 2009, Zandi Says (Update1)
Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) — U.S. home prices will reach bottom by the end of the year, concluding a slide that will have cut values 36 percent, Moody’s Economy.com said today.
“Notwithstanding the intensifying economic gloom, the bottom of the housing downturn is within sight,” chief economist Mark Zandi said in a statement today. “Presuming we see strong action by policymakers to help support the economy and the housing market, prices will begin to recover by the end of this year.”
Demand for new and existing homes began to fall in 2005, marking the end of a five-year U.S. housing boom fueled in part by easy credit for subprime borrowers. Existing home prices tumbled from an average high of $230,200 in July 2006 to $175,400 in December, according to data from the Chicago-based National Association of Realtors.
U.S. home prices will fall another 11 percent on average before stabilizing, according to Moody’s Economy.com. The Case- Shiller home price index will fall 36 percent from its 2006 peak to the bottom this year, Zandi’s study said.
About 62 percent of U.S. metropolitan areas surveyed will record double-digit declines in home prices by the end of the slump, according to today’s report. Prices will fall more than 50 percent in former boom areas such as southeast Florida and parts of California, including Riverside.
Mortgage Rates Likely Headed to 4.5%: Pimco’s Gross
Government action to shore up the economy and improve the housing climate probably will send mortgage rates to 4.5 percent, Bill Gross, co-CEO at the Pimco bond fund, said Monday.
In addition to driving down mortgage rates and stimulating home-buying, the government’s efforts also could include a move to cap Treasurys rates to encourage investors to take more risk, Gross said during a live interview on CNBC.
“I think at some point we’re going to see a 4.5 percent mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury rate capped at some level,” he said. “When the Fed comes in to buy Treasurys that will be a big day.”
“We need a clear plan tomorrow that moves away from nationalization, and private capital will come in,” Gross said.
“I think they’ve done an excellent job so far in terms of shock and awe.”
Norris Chevrolet in Westfield closing on 2/25/09
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&Item=230324085599&Category=11832&_trksid=p3907.m29&_trkparms=algo%3DLVI%26its%3DI%26otn%3D2
sl,
I didn’t realize the rollback taxes.
That is a tremendous exit barrier. I wonder how many farms continue to “operate” simply because the owners would get hit with the rollback.
Anyone see their January energy bills yet?
We broke our personal 4 year record. Our house is not insulated so our bill was > $700 on the NG portion. Funny thing is NG was $8 per unit last January and this January it’s $4 per unit. PSE&G felt bad. They lowered their rates by 5%, even though their delivery charges went up by almost the same 5%. Me’s thinks it might be time to drop a few bones in PSE&G on a pullback before 1st quarter earnings are released.
Mortgage Rates Likely Headed to 4.5%: Pimco’s Gross
Keep flapping your lips Bill, you’ll have every potential buyer sidelined by Friday.
I’ll let you in on a secret.
If you tell buyers that mortgage rates are falling to 4.5%, they won’t buy until mortgage rates hit 4.5%.
So while you think you are talking up the market by making the promises, you aren’t, you are killing it.
We broke our personal 4 year record. Our house is not insulated so our bill was > $700 on the NG portion.
How completely wasteful. I thought you were frugal Stu.
You might as well be burning dollars to heat your uninsulated house.
Tsk tsk.
Anyone see their January energy bills yet?
$183, gas and electric.
I’ve pored over that pdf file…
Been wanting a small farm (minus the large livestock, sorry spam… I just can’t manage all that.)
Since this whole NJ tax, USA bankrupt and financial insecurity altogether…. I am sometimes leery of sinking roots here, at all.
Were it not for my immediate family, I might have left already. I freely admit I am extremely discouraged about life in NJ.
If I knew I could obtain a small farm <15 acres, with a livable house without a mortgage that would jeopardize my family — I might be more active in looking.
My moniker is a misnomer…. I’m not even still looking…. I should change it to “has given up.”
sl
#208 John:prices will begin to recover by the end of this year.”
What does that mean, between now and year end all those unemployed will be re-employed, future layoofss will stop, and hoising prices will start to rise again, or does he mean they will stop falling? Looks like a very tall order for the next 10 months.
He does not deifne recover.
3b, Moody’s did not say recover, Moody’s said bottom. Could bounce on bottom for many many years. Moodys also said places like Naples that were extra bubbly won’t bottom till end of 2011. Naples is predicted 70% off from boom to bust.
Spam,
I honestly don’t know the true details of the Llama home so don’t quote me on it, but the property is monstrous and their farm consists mostly of woods and the llama. I tried to get their sole llama on Google street view, but he must have been farming at the time.
http://maps.google.com/maps?oe=UTF-8&sourceid=navclient&gfns=1&q=114+MOUNTAIN+AVE,+New+Providence,+nj&um=1&ie=UTF-8&split=0&gl=us&sa=X&oi=geocode_result&resnum=1&ct=image
Bill does not care about future housing values, just his current MBS holdings and a 4.5% current rate is a great deal.
grim says:
February 9, 2009 at 2:45 pm
Mortgage Rates Likely Headed to 4.5%: Pimco’s Gross
Keep flapping your lips Bill, you’ll have every potential buyer sidelined by Friday.
I’ll let you in on a secret.
If you tell buyers that mortgage rates are falling to 4.5%, they won’t buy until mortgage rates hit 4.5%.
So while you think you are talking up the market by making the promises, you aren’t, you are killing it.
#128 128 Was an earlier post of mine. I thought it would have generated soem comments.
Norris Chevrolet in Westfield closing on 2/25/09
Thanks for the Herman Miller Aeron flashback. Was like reliving the dot com bust all over again.
grim (213)-
Somebody should tell Gross to come over to my office.
It’s nice and quiet, so he should be able to get a lot of work done.
We have buyers and borrowers piled on top of each other…just waiting for that 4.5% rate to hit.
For smart people, these BSD guys sure are stupid.
Re: energy bills
Stu – My goodness. – $700+. can you imagine if Gator was a stay-at-home mom – right there you would probably spend a good portion of li’l gator’s child care expenses on heating during the day!
Grim,
Plan is to rent out both units starting next year. Unless my return on investment for insulating the home would be break even after 4 years, then screw it. It doesn’t help that my tenants demand it to be hot and rarely leave the place. One more year and then it is their problem ;)
And yes…F the environment. If someone wants to insulate my home for free, I welcome them to.
Stu- Oh – it’s for both units and with someone at home all the time. That makes more sense.
On the bright side, we don’t have central air so our summer bills rarely top $200. Our equal payment plan for two units (6 bedrooms) is $420. Not the end of the world.
224#, clot, you call this stupid that stupid all day long here. have you figured out why SRS is traded 35% off from 1.5 year ago even IYR is off over 55%?
veto, the real estate agents pointing to a higher median price are ignoring the fact that people simply decided to use the same amount of money to buy a bigger home. If you track individual properties, they have all been on the decline.
sl (216)-
“Since this whole NJ tax, USA bankrupt and financial insecurity altogether…. I am sometimes leery of sinking roots here, at all.”
The problem with this is – Where would you go? All other first world countries are as fcuked, if not more.
IF the economy doesn’t deteriorate further, I could see housing prices bottoming out in some places like FL, AZ, NV, parts of CA where prices have already dropped 50%+.
However, I think price declines in our area are more influenced by the change on Wall St (in terms of number and quality of jobs) which have only just begun to be realized.
bi(227)-
We have already given you the answer, if you had bothered reading upthread. The question is – do you expect IYR to go up 50% from here?
bi,
What about the correlation in IYR and SRS when SRS was at 295? I don’t here you asking about that. I really want to see 300 on it, but at this point I think i want to see 90 a bit more ;)
Here should be hear, but my grammar is so awful that I probably shouldn’t bother trying to correct myself.
The Farmland Assessment bubble is really in Christmas Trees not Alpacas. FYI, the tax assessor in some towns will walk your property each year to make sure you are planting the trees.
http://blog.nj.com/njv_thurman_hart/2008/09/how_do_you_define_farmer.html
Too bad no prosecution and restitution.
Politicians & Crooks =
NJ and you Perfect Together.
I also screwed up the llama farm link. Sorry ya’all. The llama was camera shy anyway.
RE: 200
Microsoft’s mappng website is worse than Google maps in almost every respect except for its Bird’s Eye view…
I didn’t find any of four legged b@stards running around but it’s a useful feature for getting a 3/4 view on a property where street view is not available:
http://maps.live.com/default.aspx?v=2&FORM=LMLTCP&cp=qsgg4c8t14sg&style=b&lvl=2&tilt=-90&dir=0&alt=-1000&scene=18450222&phx=0&phy=0&phscl=1&encType=1
zibra, he made money ang gone and let you hold the bag…..
acttualy, he is setting up a depressed bond fund to lighten his image.
> What I can tell you is that Paulson, John not Hank, didn’t pay top dollar (or even medium dollar) when he placed his bets on housing to fall. The biggest moves come to those who are against market perception, thus by definition, the first of many to take the right side of the trade.
yep i noticed that too ben.
i also wonder if the condo and lower priced 1st time market took a bigger hit because of the credit freeze hitting buyers with weaker credit scores harder, whereas the higher end home buyers having better credit were less effected. thus sales decreased but prices increased in mercer q3 yoy. either way, i want to see the q4 yoy report, im sure they’ll show both lower prices and sales volume…
vic 231
Yep… there’s my dilemma. Right now our family is a rudderless boat. I’m not sure where to go. My work is here, but then I can work anywhere.
Hell, I’ve considered cruise ship medicine but I don’t think the other half would appreciate the nomadic lifestyle for us or our kid.
Nearly always I circle back to here…and whack myself on the forehead and start over thinking, “what the hell are we doing here….”
If the right place came along and we liked: enough acreage, a house that isn’t falling down, a decent school system, a manageable commute and for an affordable price — we’d be homeowners already.
sl
233#, it is 100% certain IYR will be up 50% from here 100 years from now. seriously, i exepct it will be up 50% in 2 years.
>We have already given you the answer, if you had bothered reading upthread. The question is – do you expect IYR to go up 50% from here?
Zieba,
Looks like they have 6 horses as well.
The Llama lives just south of the white van on Tennent rd.
http://maps.live.com/default.aspx?v=2&FORM=LMLTCP&cp=qsgg4c8t14sg&style=b&lvl=2&tilt=-90&dir=0&alt=-1000&scene=18450222&phx=0&phy=0&phscl=1&encType=1#JnE9eXAuMzkxK3Rlbm5lbnQrcmQlNDAyK21vcmdhbnZpbGxlJTJjK25qJTdlc3N0LjAlN2VwZy4xJmJiPTQwLjMzNDMzMzMxMjk3ODElN2UtNzQuMjk0NzM1MDg3MTE1NyU3ZTQwLjMzMDM0NjM1MzkyMDUlN2UtNzQuMjk5NzEyOTczMjU0NA==
Think the farmers use the giant swimming pool frequently?
i think financials are stablizing right now. we already heard Wells Fargo, BofA, and Goldman said they didn’t want to get more TARP money. Citi already got gaurrantees. very soon you will hear from two mighty Morgans. If these big 6 have no shocking news coming, i assume dow will say bi bi to 8000.
SL 241
The kettle family is in a similar boat
Bi,
I love a stock fueled pyssing match as much as the next guy. Really, I do, but I don’t want to anger any of the board regulars.
Ultimately, it’s irrelevant where it goes, so long as everyone can make some coin along the way.
Sell resistance and buy support, cash in daily if you have to. Preserve capital by not overtrading and hope you can exchange all those 1’s and 0’s in your account for something of value when this(economic clusterfawk) is finally resolved.
Veto,
http://www.city-data.com/county/Mercer_County-NJ.html
There’s some sales data for you. 4th Quarter sales down over 50% both from quarter to quarter and year over year. Median sales price also dropped about 35k from last quarter. It’s disastrous and 1st quarter sales than 4th quarter sales as far back as their data goes. So, given our situation with the economy and normal seasonal trends, I expect Mercer County to be a bloodbath the next 3 months.
SL:
Don’t give up!
You only get one spin on the planet and if you gotta put up with some (tax/politician/gummint) crap to make it worthwhile, do it!
I was beat yesterday, senor spam was sick, and I went outside to “wind down”…I started brushing the big idiots and next thing we were having “fun with camel lips”, playing “lets chew on everything in the groomie bucket”, playing peek-a-boo thru manes and tails, chasing each other (the goats) and just playing out in the Vitamin D.
Life is RIGHT there in those moments. There is nothing else.
Maybe Frank is onto something:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SZCIDv4ozKI/AAAAAAAAEf4/zzXkVww1hCg/s1600-h/JobLossesPostWarII.jpg
Given the chart above from CR, the recession, in terms over % of job losses, was running less severe than the 2001 and 1990 recessions up until about 2 months ago. Prior to that, job losses were actually pretty mild in comparison (although large on a raw number basis).
“The kettle family is in a similar boat”
The Gator’s feel like they should have never put down 20% down on their boat.
Trust me. On the next home, I will be putting as little skin into the purchase as possible. This is how my leaders have told me to behave. I will also wait for the 4% mortgage. If it looks like I can’t make the payments, I’ll ask a judge to lower my payments or just walk away. I love this country.
Grim,
In that chart, one thing jumps out at me. It appears the slower the pace of the job losses, the longer the recovery takes. Although, the pace of the job losses does not seem to correlate with the size of the job losses. The sample size may be lacking, but I really don’t like the looks of that graph. Or maybe I do? ;)
I knew that Grim’s thread lead would get spam out of the woodshed, but wow.
And since I am in a nominating mood (and have proven I don’t know jack about agronomy or the economics of farming, and since she is pretty sure it never is gonna happen anyway), I nominate Spam as Minister of Agriculture and Commerce for the Nompound!
No residency required. ;-)
Now, I gotta get back to work. Folks be needin’ memos.
Great piece…….someone in Souther CA is considering walking away from his home which has depreciated 140K on a 450k home.
http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/09/our-daily-bleg-a-real-estate-dilemma/?apage=2#comments
bi (242)-
People ask me why I short. I just tell them to come here and look for your posts:
“it is 100% certain IYR will be up 50% from here 100 years from now. seriously, i exepct it will be up 50% in 2 years.”
Once again, I’ll try to smash through your skull the idea that everything I have plowed into SRS right now are REALIZED GAINS from previous SRS investment. If I lose it all, I’ve pretty much broken even on the position (less some cap gains taxes). Being in SRS is also a hedge against the rest of my life, which is involved in doing RE business. The minute I see I can do legitimate RE business again, the trade comes off.
Let me assure you that nowhere on the horizon do I see this day arriving.
Once again, I am a broker of RE. If I don’t see the business coming back, it ain’t coming back. When it does look like it’s coming back, I’ll make a little post here, just for you.
grim (248)-
That’s ok…until you look at the last recession and its jobless recovery, in which entire areas of the US (Rust Belt) never saw any real return of the previous healthy rate of employment.
Stu (249)-
The minute I’m sure of how the rules will be for principal cram-downs, I’m defaulting on my mortgage.
Don’t anybody here tell me you haven’t thought about doing the same, either.
llama > bi
plume (251)-
This is my offer to pay Spammy more and name her Queen of my compound.
I will also put her in charge of my llama cavalry attack on your dude ranch.
There was some talk of low insurance rate carriers recently – not sure if NJ Manufacturer’s Auto insurance was discussed – Anyone have any experience bad/good with them?
Thanks.
Nom – Saw an interesting contender for the ‘nompound’. Nice digs, albeit on the high side. Shoot me an email, will pass along.
One in eight lenders may fail, RBS says
NEW YORK/BANGALORE (Reuters) – More than 1,000 U.S. banks, or one in eight lenders, may fail in the next three to five years as commercial loan losses rise, compounding problems from record mortgage delinquencies and soaring home equity loan defaults, RBC Capital Markets said on Monday.
That rate of failures would recall the height of the savings and loan collapse, when 1,386 lenders failed from 1988 to 1990, according to Federal Deposit Insurance Corp data.
RBC had previously said 200 to 300 lenders might fail over three years. It said most failures will occur at banks with less than $2 billion of assets.
“Credit losses in the U.S. banking industry will run into the hundreds of billions of dollars over this cycle,” RBC analyst Gerard Cassidy said in an interview. “The FDIC will have to again raise deposit insurance rates it charges banks and tap into the Treasury Department, likely for billions of dollars. In the end, it is going to be the taxpayers who suffer, as well as common shareholders.”
Clot. I’m playing with gains only as well and not all of ’em. ;)
Thank the lord I had the foresight to get out of my 401k at the complete tippy top. The amount of money saved there makes everything seem like gravy now. Can’t believe I accidentally went back in around October. How foolish. As I said on Friday, I got back out with no pain.
As for a hedge, I guess you could say I’m protecting myself from losses on my current home.
Hi folks, first post.
NJM Insurance.
I have had it for years, excellent service and great rates. If you have no claim for the year they issue a rebate check. You need to be in or work for a company that is a member of the NJ Chamber of Commerce.
clot,
Buying a house right now could also be seen as a hedge. if you can get in for a small enough initial outlay and think its really going to hit the fan, then you have 12 months + of rent free living as a back up plan.
I know its actually more complicated but for some people the numbers may work.
Foreclosure Filings on More Than 2.3 Million Properties Reported in 2008, says ForeclosureListings.com
In 2008 California, Florida, and Arizona had the highest foreclosure totals
More than half a million California properties received a foreclosure filing in 2008; the highest state total nationwide. Foreclosure activity in California increased over 100-percent from 2007 and nearly 500-percent from 2006.
With over 360,000 properties filing a foreclosure in 2008, Florida was the second highest state total. Florida’s foreclosure activity increased over 130-percent from 2007 and well over 400-percent from 2006.
With over 103,000 properties filing a foreclosure in 2008, Arizona was the third highest among the states. Foreclosure activity in Arizona increased more than 200-percent from 2007 and well over 600-percent from 2006.
Other states in the top 10 of foreclosures for 2008 were Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Texas, Georgia, Nevada, and New Jersey.
BC
i guess Mrs Watanabe better beef up her mergin account…
-Japan December current account surplus down 92.1 percent
-Japan faces ‘unimaginable’ contraction
BC
i guess Mrs Watanabe better beef up her margin account…
-Japan December current account surplus down 92.1 percent
-Japan faces ‘unimaginable’ contraction
Bond market calls Fed’s bluff as global economy falls apart
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/4560901/Bond-market-calls-Feds-bluff-as-world-falls-apart.html
US Taxpayer Bailout Rises to $9.7 Trillion as Fed, Treasury Step Up Financing
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGq2B3XeGKok&refer=worldwide
Thanks LJW.
Whenever new home construction comes back;don’t see that happening any time soon.
3b –
That’s for sure. NYTimes article this weekend said that in Florida one area was so devastated that houses were selling for 40% of construction value.
This one is Frank,
77 workers hired for jobless hot line
Grim 248,
a different take on charting job loses. (not mine, a release from pelosi’s office)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_9ZzZquaXrR8/SZCVJGTI_yI/AAAAAAAAC5w/lYF26C6B-AI/s1600-h/PelosiGraph.jpg
N.J. welfare lines grow longer as jobs continue to dry up
@266 kettle:
“unimaginable” contraction?
if it contracts 100%, there is no more to contract, how is that unimaginable?
afe :258
My experience with NJ Manufacturers has been extremely positive. I’ve been with them for over 20 years, both car & home.
Their rates are low, they give discounts for insuring both car & home, they don’t penalize you for minor traffic tix, and they distrubute a very nice “dividend” check every year.
If you can get in…..I would strongly suggest doing so.
“Given the chart above from CR, the recession, in terms over % of job losses, was running less severe than the 2001 and 1990 recessions up until about 2 months ago. Prior to that, job losses were actually pretty mild in comparison (although large on a raw number basis).”
But where would we be without the $180 Billion stimulus from last spring, and the alphabet soup of Fed money thrown at all the banks?
Same damn place.
“Same damn place.”
I disagree. I believe the job losses would have been much larger by now.
#252
“Great piece…….someone in Souther CA is considering walking away from his home which has depreciated 140K on a 450k home.”
I would definitely walk away if I was in his situation, esp in a non-recourse state like CA
Re: Farmland Assessment
Isn’t there also a clause that says if you fail to meet the farm income requirements, that you will owe the difference in taxes for the 2 prior years??
That would wipe some of these paper farmers out.
Any mortgage guys out there think they know which way rates are headed?
Welcome sports news:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29099922
“we were having “fun with camel lips”, ”
Carlie Simon? Huh?
“That Esperanza project is a disaster that will end the same way all those other projects near the Stone Pony did.”
I’ve got it. Redevelopment between Ocean and Kingsley is DOOMED because of “The Curse of the Stone Pony.”
“That Esperanza project is a disaster that will end the same way all those other projects near the Stone Pony did.”
I’ve got it. Redevelopment between Ocean and Kingsley is DOOMED because of “The Curse of the Stone Pony.”
I would make it “The Curse of the Empress Motel” in Asbury. There’s been more debauchery in that place over the years. Enough to fill several novels in John’s genre.
Hobokenite & Zieba
re: “Same damn place”
Several Congressman have reported that without all of the Gov’t and Fed intervention we would have hit bottom, our world economy would have crashed.
The main difference from today however would be NYC,DC,and London along with other centers of world finance would most likely be burnt ashes by now, and we would be be busy rebooting and rebuilding our economy.
Plenty of video out there.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_atOvrTtT8
OT – but I need some help – long time lurker here, sold in 2006 and have been hiding out in an apartment since. I have a chance to renovate a house in Paramus, NJ. I would have 4 bed, 3 bath, 2800 SF, all new everything (electric, plumbing, kitchen, baths). Basically I would take a ranch, gut the bottom and add a level to the top. Taxes would probably go to 10K, price would be 600K total. I have lots of bubble money from the sale, and the mortgage would be very manageable (at least 70% down). Location is great, quiet, flat piece of land.
Do you think this is a good deal? Would this be too much? How much would I be overpaying if a worst case scenario takes place (down another 20% in the area)?
Thanks for any serious replies. It is a very tough decision…
thanks Fiddy! Will be sure to check them out.
Or maybe the Ghost of polyester from the Magic Touch
jam (281)-
Up.
Or even Mrs. J’s revenge.
#288
how does 600k stack up to other similarly sized/located properties in the area?
a big plus for your plan is that you can probably get your pick of builders right now and they should focus on your project and get it done quickly for a reasonable costs.
minus is of course that the biggest cost (land) is dropping rapidly in value.
Fiddy,
Debauchery at the Empress, indeed. A LONG history.
[257] clot,
If you buy spam a drink at the next GTG, you will have bested my offer.
Wag, don’t think I have your email, do I?
last
Nom (295) – Will forward via JB, did not want to ‘clog the blog’.
New thread, move it up!
No waterboarding for Cheney I guess.
Speaking of agriculture: How much better the world is because of grapes, yeast, and sugar.
How about they take a look at all the Jews living in Lakewood making 100k+ and living in homes paid for by their temples (hence no taxes), or the ones living in section 8 housing. Now there’s a joke where some one is pulling the wool over the governments eyes!