Housing bubble part 2? Don’t hold your breath.

From HousingWire:

Home Prices to Decline into 2010, Economists Say

Home price declines may continue through 2009 and bottom-out at the end of the year at the earliest, although recovery may not begin until mid-2010 and will take several years, according to one economist that spoke at an outlook panel at the American Securitization Forum taking place this week in Las Vegas. Mark Fleming, chief economist First American CoreLogic, said that in the most optimistic scenario, if the government stimulus took effect today and put the complete brakes on home price decline, the market would still need roughly a year at the very least to display any kind of recovery in home value.

“We’ll have to work our way out,” Fleming said. “Home prices are not like Lamborghinis; they don’t stop on a dime. They’re more like trucks.”

Within the same panel, a senior economist at Barclays Capital Inc., Julia Coronado, echoed Fleming’s home price decline forecast, saying prices will not stabilize until well into 2010. As a reaction to the continued pressure on home prices, households will demonstrate a change in spending while the household savings rate will quickly rise and reach into 5.6 percent in 2010, she said.

“We don’t predict another asset bubble to come to the rescue,” Coronado said. “Too much damage has been done to the financial sector…. We’ll have to get out of this the old-fashioned way, by digging our way out — or saving our way out.”

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302 Responses to Housing bubble part 2? Don’t hold your breath.

  1. DL says:

    Interesting piece from the FT based on Adam Smith.
    “A dwelling-house, as such, contributes nothing to the revenue of its inhabitant,” Smith said in The Wealth of Nations. “If it is lett [sic] to a tenant for rent, as the house itself can produce nothing, the tenant must always pay the rent out of some other revenue.” Therefore Smith concluded that, although a house can make money for its owner if it is rented, “the revenue of the whole body of the people can never be in the smallest degree increased by it”. [281]*

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2802e3a8-f77c-11dd-81f7-000077b07658.html

  2. SG says:

    Queen Latifah to ‘Bring Hope Home’ to Newark

    Stops on the tour include a visit to a community-based development organization, a visit with a family facing foreclosure, tours of neighborhoods whose communities have been affected by concentrated foreclosure and a project that redevelops foreclosed homes into affordable housing. The tour will end with a roundtable discussion of community leaders who have seen the affects of foreclosure on the Newark community firsthand.

    Queen Latifah says she can’t imagine the fear people must feel when they are faced with losing their home. “This is about helping families and saving communities,” she said. “Newark is my home town and I want people to know there are a number of resources out there to help them keep their home.”

  3. SG says:

    China on the brink

    China faces a breakdown in real demand due to an over-reliance on external markets, a core element of its growth model that will require a wrenching structural shift in the economy to correct.

    Of greatest immediate concern are the social implications. Job cuts are starting to bite in the US and Europe, but at least there the working stiff had the (somewhat ephemeral) satisfaction of seeing the so-called “masters of the universe” get their comeuppance first. Pain has been felt both high and low.

    China’s slowdown, in contrast, threatens to drive a wedge between the rural have-nots, who are bearing its entire brunt, and the urban haves, who are still living it up. It’s a worrisome vision that is giving top Chinese leaders some long sleepless nights, and ought to have the world’s attention.

  4. SG says:

    Roubini: Anglo-Saxon model has failed

    The Anglo-Saxon model of supervision and regulation of the financial system has failed, Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGE Monitor and professor of economics at New York University, told the Financial Times on Monday.

  5. DL says:

    “Basically what happens is that after a period of time, economies go through a long-term debt cycle — a dynamic that is self-reinforcing, in which people finance their spending by borrowing and debts rise relative to incomes and, more accurately, debt-service payments rise relative to incomes. At cycle peaks, assets are bought on leverage at high-enough prices that the cash flows they produce aren’t adequate to service the debt. The incomes aren’t adequate to service the debt. Then begins the reversal process, and that becomes self-reinforcing, too. In the simplest sense, the country reaches the point when it needs a debt restructuring. General Motors is a metaphor for the United States.”
    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396545910358867.html

    For Kettle or anyone else: so what happens to cash during deflation? Does the value of currency occur in lock step with deflating wages and prices?

  6. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    BOE’s King Says U.K. in Deep Recession, Pledges Further Easing

    Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the U.K. is in a “deep recession” and pledged to cut interest rates and increase the supply of money in the economy.

    “Further easing in monetary policy may well be required,” said King at a press conference in London after presenting the central bank’s revised quarterly forecasts. “That is likely to include actions aimed at increasing the supply of money in order to stimulate nominal spending.”

    The Bank of England’s forecasts show the economy will contract at an annual 4 percent rate by the end of the first quarter and inflation will slow to 0.5 percent at the end of next year.

    Bank of England policy makers cut the benchmark interest rate to the lowest ever on Feb. 5 and may start buying corporate debt in the next few days as they seek other ways to aid the British economy. Cabinet minister Ed Balls said this week that the government faces an economic crisis worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s.

  7. grim says:

    From the NY Times:

    New York Allots Another $2 Billion for Unemployment Benefits

    With 25,000 New Yorkers filing new claims for unemployment benefits every week, state lawmakers agreed on Tuesday to authorize paying out an additional $2 billion this year to the unemployed.

    The agreement announced in Albany came five weeks after the state started borrowing from the federal government to cover a growing gap between what the state unemployment trust fund collects and what it pays out each week. The current budget had allowed for $3 billion per year in benefits to the state’s unemployed, but state officials now estimate those payouts will rise to $4.6 billion as the recession grinds on.

  8. DL says:

    Home builder Toll Brothers reported a sharp drop in first-quarter revenue Wednesday, but said it had enough liquidity to get it through the current turmoil in the industry.
    The company reported revenue of $409.3 million for the first three months of the year, down 51 percent from the year-ago period.
    It reported net contracts worth about $128 million, down 66 percent from the same quarter a year ago.
    There were 157 cancellations for the quarter and a backlog of about $1 billion.

    “If the President and Congress, in effect, take action to ‘call the bottom’ on home prices by approving a significant program to spur demand, home prices might stabilize,” Robert Toll added. “This could also stem foreclosures, reduce inventories, and shore up existing difficult-to-value mortgage-backed securities so they can be traded.”

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/29134941

    In other words, buy homes you cash strapped bloated capitalist debt monkeys, and everything will return to normal.

  9. taxed says:

    Good morning all. Can anyone direct me to a running tally of the companies leaving NJ and the number of jobs affected. Thanks much.

  10. grim says:

    Uh oh.. From Bloomberg:

    China Needs U.S. Guarantees for Treasuries, Yu Says

    China should seek guarantees that its $682 billion holdings of U.S. government debt won’t be eroded by “reckless policies,” said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the central bank.

    The U.S. “should make the Chinese feel confident that the value of the assets at least will not be eroded in a significant way,” Yu, who now heads the World Economics and Politics Institute at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in response to e-mailed questions yesterday from Beijing. He declined to elaborate on the assurances needed by China, the biggest foreign holder of U.S. government debt.

  11. AstoriaMike says:

    SG#2

    What is terrifying is when the hundreds of millions of migrant workers head home to the countryside to reclaim their farm land and they find out the local governments don’t want them back.

    At least parents will get to see their kids again.

    -AM

  12. BC Bob says:

    “He declined to elaborate on the assurances needed by China, the biggest foreign holder of U.S. government debt.”

    Backed by shiny?

  13. reinvestor101 says:

    Those damn commies need to shut the hell up and be glad that we even sell treasuries to them. There’s no other place for them to invest anyway.

    If they keep this crap up, we ought to support Taiwan’s independence. America needs to be respected and we can’t have these dirtbag commies insulting us by talking about some damn guarantees.

    grim says:
    February 11, 2009 at 7:02 am
    Uh oh.. From Bloomberg:

    China Needs U.S. Guarantees for Treasuries, Yu Says

    China should seek guarantees that its $682 billion holdings of U.S. government debt won’t be eroded by “reckless policies,” said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the central bank.

    The U.S. “should make the Chinese feel confident that the value of the assets at least will not be eroded in a significant way,” Yu, who now heads the World Economics and Politics Institute at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in response to e-mailed questions yesterday from Beijing. He declined to elaborate on the assurances needed by China, the biggest foreign holder of U.S. government debt.

  14. Cindy says:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/11/business/economy/11bailout.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&th&emc=th

    There was also withering criticism from Wall Street. Ethan Harris, co-head of United States economics research at Barclay’s Capital, said the program was “shock and uh.” He said the Treasury made a “tactical mistake” by building up expectations about a plan before it had much to announce.

    Shock and uh? – We thought there was a p-l-a-n….

  15. kettle1 says:

    SAS

    from yesterday, you referred me to this post of yours (below). You lost me. I know sidley is in bed with the whole tribune fiasco and that they have been investigated by the IRS before. I dont get what you are trying to say:

    Sidley stimulus bonds give abusive tax shelters, hedge fund frauds; `long’ in Merrill Lynch destroyed by pump-and-dump shorts to clients e.g RBC-Dexia

  16. reinvestor101 says:

    This man needs to be detained for always predicting the very worst for our great nation. He’s unamerican and I’m sure that they can revive the alien and sedition acts go after this punk.

    SG says:
    February 11, 2009 at 6:11 am
    Roubini: Anglo-Saxon model has failed

    The Anglo-Saxon model of supervision and regulation of the financial system has failed, Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGE Monitor and professor of economics at New York University, told the Financial Times on Monday.

  17. reinvestor101 says:

    Roubini needs to be detained for always predicting the very worst for our great nation. He’s unamerican and I’m sure that they can revive the alien and sedition acts go after this punk.

  18. DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:

    Just watched that Taleb/Roubini piece from CNBC yesterday. Who is that loud mouthed ingorant broad with the long black hair? She’s the same moron who was talking stupid talk about gold a few weeks ago. Are these people that f’g dumb or is there some sort of behind the scenes nefarious plot to make the rest of this nation poorer by watching that crap?

  19. DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:

    Sidley just got off for their role in the KPMG tax fraud case. I doubt it had anything to do with their huge donations to the Obama campaign.

  20. Cindy says:

    DL – Thanks for the Barron’s article @6.

    “You need financially sound entities to lend to” ..Hello…

  21. reinvestor101 says:

    Anyone who goes after Roubini deserves a medal in my book. We already saw how much money Peter Schiff has lost people and he’s lost his credibility along with that, so he won’t be appearing on anymore TV shows. I’m sure Roubini has lost someone some money

    DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:
    February 11, 2009 at 7:56 am
    Just watched that Taleb/Roubini piece from CNBC yesterday. Who is that loud mouthed ingorant broad with the long black hair? She’s the same moron who was talking stupid talk about gold a few weeks ago. Are these people that f’g dumb or is there some sort of behind the scenes nefarious plot to make the rest of this nation poorer by watching that crap?

  22. kettle1 says:

    DL

    For Kettle or anyone else: so what happens to cash during deflation? Does the value of currency occur in lock step with deflating wages and prices

    Lockstep? Not necessarily, and in our specific case probably not. Cash is king in deflationary periods and will be during this period as well.

  23. BC Bob says:

    “Shock and uh? – We thought there was a p-l-a-n….”

    Cindy,

    There is; American public, bend over and kiss your #ss goodbye.

  24. kettle1 says:

    SG 4

    Dont worry the urban HAVES wont be laughing for very long…..

    And i agree with Astoria, there wont be a welcome home party for the factory workers….

    The shifting of the population for subsistence farmer to factory worker was a monitization of the population. As that monitization begins to fail there is less to go around and with China experiencing substantial environmental depredation some rural regions carrying capacity is likely to be reduced which is bad news for returning factory workers.

    It also plants the seeds of unrest and uprising, as the factory jobs were the mana for the masses. The path to prosperity was presented as leaving the farm for the factory. The people bought this hook, line, and sinker. Now what happens when they all go back to the farm after having accepted that the path to prosperity was the factory????

  25. victorian says:

    HEHE (20)-
    “Are these people that f’g dumb or is there some sort of behind the scenes nefarious plot to make the rest of this nation poorer by watching that crap?”

    – I don’t believe that they are dumb. It is just the nature of selling TV. People won’t watch gloom and doom. I have a friend who has stopped reading financial news because of the “negativity”. They need to sell sunshine.

  26. reinvestor101 says:

    And what the hell is wrong with some damn sunshine? Hell, I like the sun shining down on me better than some damn rainy day. I’d rather live in Florida rather than Seattle.

    It’s hard for me to come to this board and read doom and gloom.

    I don’t believe that they are dumb. It is just the nature of selling TV. People won’t watch gloom and doom. I have a friend who has stopped reading financial news because of the “negativity”. They need to sell sunshine.

  27. BC Bob says:

    “Anyone who goes after Roubini deserves a medal in my book”

    50.5,

    Your book? What is that book value?

  28. kettle1 says:

    Vic,

    You hit on a great and scary point.

    It seems people have been conditioned that negative news should be shunned or ignored, that it is nothing but pessimism.

    This is very scary as this is essentially the classic ant and grasshopper fable.

    This has completely pervaded out society, hence the doomer label for anyone who points our structural issue. Calling roubini a doomer is a joke. he’s down right optomistic

  29. John says:

    Ken lewis taking an 8 hour train ride to DC today. Bet you dollars to donuts the private jet is in DC ready to take him back.

    Laughing at first time buying idiots in WSJ today who just bought houses in Phoenix for 225K that were 400K and think they stole them. Buddied Chase employees in Phoenix make 20K a year. 225K is still 11 times income if dad only works and 6 times incme if both mom and dad work, some bargain.

  30. kettle1 says:

    Looks like NATO lost any chance at snatching the Ukraine

    Uncertainty on IMF Loan Sends Ukraine to Moscow

    The International Monetary Fund is likely to suspend loan payments to Ukraine, a move that would further push the government toward Moscow for aid and exacerbate a feud between top leaders in Kiev.

    Ukraine is failing to meet the terms of its loan deal with the IMF, and likely won’t get the next installment this month, according to a person close to talks between the fund and the government in Kiev.

    Faced with a cash shortage, Kiev is passing the hat around to global powers. Talks were held in Moscow last week over a $5 billion loan to help plug Ukraine’s budget deficit.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123422995045566031.html

  31. RentinginNJ says:

    We’ll have to get out of this the old-fashioned way, by digging our way out — or saving our way out.”

    …or inflate/debase our way out.
    The gubmint will do everything it can to prevent an “old fashion” paying/saving our way out of debt. Diverting the amount money it would take away from consumer spending to achieve both positive savings and pay down excessive debt would give us a Japanese “lost decade”.

  32. DL says:

    Ket: Same with Kyrgyz Republic. Russians have decided to re-establish their near abroad by either buying it, (Ukraine/Kyrgyzstan) or invading it (Georgia.)

  33. kettle1 says:

    If you live in a no recourse state i could see an argument for buying a home now. Assuming you can get into a house that is supportable by 1 income and given the push for cram downs, you now have the option of both refinancing to a lower rate and going to court to get your principle reduced. if worst case hits and you cant pay the mortgage, then you are looking at about 1 year of free lodging.
    Assuming you are willing to risk the credit hit the situation could be an interesting play.

    As john has said, the best you can do is play by their rules…..

    just an observation.

  34. kettle1 says:

    From grim @ 12

    China Needs U.S. Guarantees for Treasuries, Yu Says

    japan has also floated the idea of demanding treasuries denominate din Yen not dollars. There must be some heated backroom discussions going on with our creditors, they appear to be sweating a bit.

    if i owe $100 its my problem. If i owe a trillion, its your problem….

  35. Frank says:

    God help us.

    Senior executives at Citigroup’s Alternative Investment division ran up hundreds of millions of dollars in losses last year on their esoteric collection of investments, including real estate funds and private highway construction projects, even as they collected seven-figure salaries and bonuses.
    Now the 0bama administration has turned to that Citigroup division — twice — for high-level advisers.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/11/us/politics/11citi.html?_r=1&ref=politics

  36. kettle1 says:

    here you go

    Japan economists call for ‘Obama bonds’
    By Kosuke Takahashi

    TOKYO – Japanese economists, increasingly concerned that the United States might seek to pay its enormous and growing debt obligations in a weakened US dollar, are looking to the possibility of US Treasuries being issued in yen.

    The US government needs to borrow at least US$1 trillion in the coming year, excluding the US Treasury’s $700 billion plan to bail out the financial and other industries, said Kazuo Mizuno, chief economist in Tokyo at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co, a unit of Japan’s largest publicly traded lender by assets. That amount is likely to grow as the US government continues to rescue failed parts of the economy and has to raise more debt – that is, issue

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/JK19Dh01.html

  37. John says:

    RE 101 hopefully this is good news to you according to Fed Funds Data, on 9/30 the Personal Sector held roughly $8.5 trillion in cash and short-term instruments, with a whopping $6.5 trillion of that in savings deposits and CDs. Holders of some of the CDs, in particular, will likely be looking for alternative as their prior purchases at higher yield levels roll off.

    We finished rate cutting in December 2008 and the most popular CD is the one year cd. 2009 will be a year of hard choices as one year CDs mature with nowhere to go but back into insane low rate cds. Money has to flow somewhere and people will move slowly back to RE, Commodites, Stocks and bonds.

  38. DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:

    “Now the 0bama administration has turned to that Citigroup division — twice — for high-level advisers.”

    It’s the visible hand of 0bammunism at work.

  39. DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:

    Quick question, do you need a gun permit in NJ for a shotgun for hunting or are the permits only necessary for handguns?

  40. kettle1 says:

    Dissident

    you need a FID (Fire Arms ID) for ALL firarms and BB guns in NJ. This can take 3- 9 months

  41. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    U.S. MBA’s Mortgage Applications Index Slid 24.5% Last Week

    Mortgage applications in the U.S. slid last week to their lowest level since November, led by plummeting demand for refinancing amid tighter credit and a worsening economic outlook.

    The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of applications to purchase a home or refinance a loan decreased 24.5 percent to 600.6 in the week ended Feb. 6, from 795.4 in the prior week. The group’s refinancing measure plunged 30.3 percent and the purchase index fell 9.8 percent to its lowest level since December 2000.

    Stricter credit availability and surging job losses are squeezing demand for loans, while falling home prices and increased foreclosures signal the real-estate slump has farther to go. President Barack Obama’s administration is crafting measures to ease credit, stem foreclosures and rekindle housing sales as part of a broader economic stimulus plan.

    “Lenders are reluctant to underwrite mortgages to any potential homeowner without pristine credit,” Ryan Sweet, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said before the report. “New homebuyers are still few and far between because of the measurable deterioration in the labor market and reduced access to credit.”

    The mortgage bankers’ purchase index declined to 235.9 last week from 261.4 the prior week. The refinancing gauge fell to 2,722.7 from 3,906.3 the prior week.

    “Demand for refinancing has waned after surging in December,” said Michelle Meyer, an economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York.

  42. DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:

    Kettle,

    Thanks

  43. kettle1 says:

    Dissident:

    You need an FID AND purchase permits to buy a handgun in NJ.

    oh well have floors to mop and cafeteria’s to clean……

  44. grim says:

    From Reuters:

    U.S. mortgage applications slump to 8-year low

    Demand for U.S. mortgage applications tumbled nearly 25 percent last week, with requests for loans to buy homes sinking to an eight-year low, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday, as potential buyers hold out for better terms and government help.

    The Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted home purchase applications index slid 9.8 percent in the week ended Feb. 6 to 235.9, its lowest level since the end of 2000.

    Average 30-year mortgage rates slipped to 5.19 percent from 5.28 percent a week earlier, the trade group said.

    The rate has fallen more than a full percentage point in three months, but is up about 3/8 point from early this year and seen heading lower.

    “In addition to waiting for the rate, you have home prices continuing to come down, so why would I pay $200,000 today when I can pay maybe $180,000 in a couple months or even $150,000,” Daniel Penrod, industry analyst for the California Credit Union League in Rancho Cucamonga, California, said on Tuesday. The government is “really pushing against some very strong forces.”

  45. BC Bob says:

    “with a whopping $6.5 trillion of that in savings deposits and CDs.”

    John,

    What about debt? Money does not have to flow anywhere. Some are more concerned with the return of their $, rather than the return on their $. In addition to this, if asset prices keep declining their spread is widening. Sit back and watch the show.

  46. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    New York State Tax Bill Would Seek More From Top Wage Earners

    New York state’s highest earning taxpayers would pay thousands of dollars more in income taxes under a proposed bill that sponsors say would raise $6.2 billion and help ease a $13 billion deficit next year.

    The measure’s sponsor, Manhattan Democrat Eric Schneiderman, said the move would provide an alternative to increasing the sales tax on clothes and trimming Medicaid and school budgets that opponents say would hurt the poor and middle class.

    Opponents say New York’s top 1 percent of earners, who accounted for 36 percent of the state’s total income tax in 2008, shouldn’t have to take more of the tax burden. They also say it would encourage the wealthiest residents to flee.

    “There might not be an exodus, but it’s more akin to boiling a frog,” said E.J. McMahon, senior fellow for tax and budget studies at the Manhattan Institute, a business funded policy research organization. “Some are going to jump out.”

  47. John says:

    Even worst for NY is that they consider 250K and up high income, most of my friends making 250K drive ten year old cars and shop at Bjs and Kohls. Even worse the people at that income are in AMT so they can’t deduct any of their state income tax. The good news is that more 500K and up earners are leaving NY for BC>

    The bill would increase the income tax rate for those earning more than $250,000 a year by 1.4 percentage points to 8.25 percent; for those earning $500,000 to 8.97 percent, and for those who earn $1 million to 10.3 percent.

  48. John says:

    Debt, come one now, what is that? You really think people have 100K in CDs at 2% and car loans and credit card loans? The debt people have 200 bucks in ING direct.

    BC Bob says:
    February 11, 2009 at 8:46 am
    “with a whopping $6.5 trillion of that in savings deposits and CDs.”

    John,

    What about debt? Money does not have to flow anywhere. Some are more concerned with the return of their $, rather than the return on their $. In addition to this, if asset prices keep declining their spread is widening. Sit back and watch the show.

  49. Al says:

    Posts # like 12 and 38 really scare me….

    I feel that inflation might come a lot faster than we all expect it to come….

    Or it will rather be dollar de-valuation with respect to major currencies.

    Which one will it be??? In effect dollar devalueation will lead to all foreign good being a lot mroe expensive, oil being a lot mroe exoensive – would not end result be the same as inflation????

    Since we produce probably 10% of goods we consume…. and it is inevitable that US producers will raise prices when foreign good go up in price…

    The onyl black sheep here is housing – as it is possible for it to just stay flat – all existing housing do not require any foreign produced goods…

    but well I guess Japan and China are not as stupid as I hoped.

  50. John says:

    “Most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now,” Buffett said in a column in the New York Times in October, warning that investors who sat on the sidelines were ignoring advice from hockey great Wayne Gretzky, who said: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.”

  51. BC Bob says:

    “Debt, come one now, what is that?”

    J,

    Debt/disposabe income. Greatest % since Great D. Tarp 4.0?

  52. BC Bob says:

    “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.”

    It’s a b*tch when it lands in the opposition’s net?

  53. 3b says:

    #39 John: you sound like a CNBC talking head.

    Retail investors will not be moving back into the markets slowly or otherwise any time soon.

    As far as them moving back into real estate, well know that is just plain silly. Why would the average retail investor move back into real estate, if he was even in it in the first place. Away from a primary residence.

  54. kettle1 says:

    more from cali

    Faced with a projected $42 billion deficit, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger warned Tuesday that 20,000 state workers will lose their jobs if a budget deal isn’t reached by the end of the week.

    http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/02/10/california.budget.crisis/

  55. BC Bob says:

    [54],

    Meant to say your net.

  56. still_looking says:

    12 grim,

    “China should seek guarantees that its $682 billion holdings of U.S. government debt won’t be eroded by “reckless policies”

    I guess offering a “first born child” ain’t gonna cut it, huh?

    [i kid, i kid…]

    sl

  57. Cindy says:

    (56) Kettle – There is much talk here about tax increases (which the Reps keep fighting – hence a stalemate at the State budget level.)

    Local scuttlebutt is that restaurants and retail outfits felt the pinch of closed government offices on “furlough Friday.” The City of Fresno is getting ready to lay off another 50 employees.
    Unemployment in the Central Valley is a real issue so weakening struggling businesses by shutting off revenue sources isn’t sitting well.

    Cities, school districts etc. are cutting budgets and employees but the State legislators only seem to now how to raise taxes to answer the problem.

  58. John says:

    The average person you bought a house pre 2002 has a little tennie weenie mortgage and could work in a trader joes and make ends meet. I know I could. The pre-2002 folks who put nothing down cashed out their home equity and went on a wild spending spree will need to find a warm heating grate next winter for their family to sleep on. Hopefully they paid off their Escalade cause sleeping in that baby is a big step up from the heating grate!!!

    Everyone knows the big o is a one term prez and our next republican prez will see the benefits of this administration turn around plans. The problem is this won’t turn on a dime and by 2011 when O is running for office we will be sick of his economic medicine, that does make sense but as americans we want it now not later.

  59. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (16)-

    There is no plan. There will never be a plan.

    It is impossible to inject or impute value to worthless MBS. You cannot dump them on an aggregator at a rigged-up price, nor can banks who hold them remain solvent should these MBS actually be traded at market value (as discussed here ad nauseum, the highest value may be .05).

  60. John says:

    Investment-Grade Company Bonds Are ‘Fantastic,’ Citigroup Says
    Email | Print | A A A

    By Patricia Kuo

    Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) — Investors should buy investment- grade corporate bonds and banks’ non government-guaranteed senior notes because prices have fallen too far, according to Citigroup Inc.

    “For buy-and-hold investors credit looks absolutely fantastic,” London-based Matt King, a managing director with Citigroup’s credit products strategy group, told investors at a conference in Hong Kong yesterday. “The spread cycle should turn in 2009. Investors will turn to credit as interest rates head toward zero.”

    Investment-grade corporate bond prices have fallen to levels which more than compensate investors for default risk, King said. Prices will rise as companies reduce their debt, spending and dividend payments to weather the global recession, he said.

  61. Stu says:

    From the SA Final Market Bubble article linked in #8:

    “Gold, traditionally a good inflation hedge, will retain its value as the major fiat currencies collapse. However, I believe there will be a chance for us to go into gold at an entry point cheaper than now, during the early stage of the economic recovery, and before inflation truly appears. When that happens, I recommend moving a sizable portion of our net worth into gold, but not so much that we would miss out on a benign recovery if the Armageddon thesis turns out to be false.”

    I can be hopeful…right?

  62. still_looking says:

    Clot 62

    So why is this so hard for our government dolts to recognize? Let’s not even start about the general populace.

    sl

  63. Cindy says:

    http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/02/11/business/react.php

    (62) Clot “There is no plan… – But – oh! look..International Herald Tribune….

    “U.S. is looking to the “Vultures” to rescue banks….

    Like these guys who were smart enough to make money in this horrible environment want anything to do with this stuff….

  64. RentinginNJ says:

    China Needs U.S. Guarantees for Treasuries, Yu Says

    Or…to take a page from the RE Investor school of finance…we can tell them to shove it. They are in a precarious situation simply by making the mistake of holding too much of our debt. So now our situation is their problem too. They can go along with us for the ride as we attempt an orderly write-down of treasury debt via inflation/currency debasement, thereby taking a hit on the value of their holdings, or they can trigger the nuclear “mutually assured destruction” option & bring both of our economies down. Either way they are taking a hit; the former option may be their option under the circumstances.

  65. south of NJ says:

    is there a way to actively gauge when foreign countries will stop purchasing our MBS?

    1) has this ever happened before?

    2) is there something the US can “hold over their head” to prevent this from happening?

    (and by ‘their’ i mean foreign countries)

  66. RayC says:

    The market tanked after the stimulus announcement, and the NY Times harshly criticized the plan, so I assume the administration is on the right track…

  67. Cindy says:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aJzOpVwY1cTA&refer=us

    We make something someone wants to BUY…

    “G.E. wins $1 billion turbine order in Saudi Arabia”

  68. Stu says:

    “2) is there something the US can “hold over their head” to prevent this from happening?”

    Why yes there is…Our supersized military. It’s just a shame that W did his best in Iraq to ruin the myth that size DOES matter.

  69. Cindy says:

    question regarding the IHT article…

    “But if the vultures do alight, their rewards could be enormous.”

    Do they mean guarantees of some sort?

  70. RayC says:

    10 minutes till the Barney Frank show starts.

    I don’t get Logo at work. Sorry, cheap shot. I don’t really care who Barney Fs if as long as he stops Fing me.

  71. BC Bob says:

    “Gold, traditionally a good inflation hedge, will retain its value as the major fiat currencies collapse.

    Stu[64],

    What is the author waiting for? The currencies are collapsing. It’s the great race to the bottom.

  72. kettle1 says:

    SL 65

    I believe you are looking for this

    It is difficult to get a man to understand something if his livelihood depends upon his not understanding it.” — Upton Sinclai

    The existing political machine cannot function in a world not juiced to to the moon with funny money…..

  73. bi says:

    people are blaming no specific in Geithner’s plan for yesterday’s market drop. Acttually, major banks don’t need money no more from their testimonies present to the frank show today. GS, JPM, BNY Mellon, WFC and State street didn’t ask for the money at first place. SS even hasn’t figure it out how to spend $2B they got last Oct.
    On the other hand, they are on schedule to pay 5% annual dividends. Fed and Congress should have no complain since they sell 10year for less than 3%.

  74. John says:

    Barney Frank is set to go wild today, he insterted his extra large ben-wa balls this morning to get his mojo going.

  75. kettle1 says:

    BC Clot,

    So what is the conversion ratio for rounds of ammunition to oz of AU???

    maybe we should start a new commodities market??? all transaction in ammo and au.

  76. Hard Place says:

    Shop for homes on eBayFeb 11, 2009 08:00 AMA group of Elliman brokers are now listing two apartments on eBay. The first is a two-bedroom co-op in the East Village, at 327 East 3rd Street, with a listed eBay bid of $350,000. The unit is listed for $425,000 on Elliman’s Web site. The second unit is a one-bedroom co-op in Hell’s Kitchen, at 438 West 49th Street, with a starting eBay bid of $325,000 and an asking price of $365,000 on Elliman’s site. This is not the first time brokers have attempted to sell Manhattan real estate on eBay — a studio apartment in Lower Manhattan was listed on the auction site for $529,000 in October and failed to sell.

    I appreciate these realtors use of a larger medium to try to sell real estate. I would like to see what type of prices they get when they set the starting bid at $1. Than we would see the true market price for these apts.

  77. still_looking says:

    John, 78

    or you could loan him your c0cktail onions, no?

    sl

  78. kettle1 says:

    BC clot,

    today .40 S&W is going for about 1500 rds per oz au

    .223 is about 1700 rds / oz au

  79. Alap says:

    Any idea on this $500 tax credit is supposed to work in the porkulus? Is it just less withheld over a period of time?

  80. Sean says:

    bi – Again you are speaking directly from your posterior.

    These banks would be bust if not for all of the FED and Treasury lending/guarantee programs not just the TARP, and it has nothing to do with housing. The casino mentality of derivatives is the issue, but let’s ignore the facts because that is what we will see today on the TV.

  81. bi says:

    84#, sean, any evidence? i know some such as citi would be bust but not all.
    aig already busted since they wrote 6 times more cds than underlining. it always be firm-specific.

  82. skep-tic says:

    just watched the Roubini and Taleb clip from CNBC the other day… man those guys schooled the CNBC people. It is amazing that these guys still get treated as if they are a side show when they have been incredibly accurate all along

    agree with Roubini that we are inching toward nationalization of banks

  83. bi says:

    i don’t know what they are talking about. they are all saying american people are angry since they put money which is working. some banks already paid their dividends to treasury, which is decent return considering current investment environment.

  84. kettle1 says:

    Sean,

    Its gets even better….

    The derivatives that are often described as a zero sum game are only that if transaction have essentially no lag time.

    if the lag time is the least bit to long and an action takes place that requires derivatives contracts to be settled, then some of the intermediate parties can be wiped out and break the derivative chain and the game is no longer a zero sum game.

    Thats when the FEDS better show up with a few trillion unless they want the entire system to fall apart

  85. skep-tic says:

    #7

    “Cabinet minister Ed Balls said this week that the government faces an economic crisis worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s.”

    what an awesome name

  86. Hard Place says:

    I guess offering a “first born child” ain’t gonna cut it, huh?

    [i kid, i kid…]

    Not so funny. Eventually we’ll be putting our kids up for adoption. It will be the rage. Chinese parents w/ American kids.

  87. renter says:

    We might be witnessing a cultural shift from $300 jeans to Spam.

    The ‘Savor Today’ section of the Star Ledger has an article about Spam entitled Miracle in a Can.

  88. Al says:

    I guess I see why japan is worried:

    Look at the 10 years chart:

    http://www.google.com/finance?q=USDJPY

  89. kettle1 says:

    Mr Balls, paging Mr Balls, your BFG is ready

  90. comrade nom deplume says:

    [92] Al,

    Further to the alpha post, how are things with our northern cousins anyway? Are BMO and TD tapped out as badly as Citi?

    Perhaps we should be buying the loonie. (I considered a Great White Northern Nompound but did not think their economy would be much better, taxes are worse, and gun laws are too).

  91. comrade nom deplume says:

    [82] Kettle,

    Which means my “inventory”, small as it is, is the best performing part of my portfolio.

  92. Sean says:

    bi – more than anedotal evidence, but let’s ignore the facts that GS for example liquidated its CDO portfoilo to its clients starting in 2006 while taking out naked CDS against the same CDOs it sold to it’s clients.

    Do you really think those clients are going to do business with them again when they know that GS shorted them?

    Giethner’s plan to revive securtization will fail, shadow BANKING is dead. It is time to get on with reality, this slow bleed will kill us all if allowed to continue.

    The farce of the FEDs swapping used toilet paper for freshly printed dollars the TARP farce and the other swap and guarantee programs will fail.

    FYI- It won’t be China that pulls the plug it will be smaller holders of Treasuries that will start an avalanche of redemption, and it will be GAME over if that occurs.

  93. John says:

    robunini in real life is a horny druggie who does not have a nickle in the markets and only claim to fame is bad mouthing the markets. He is no different than the cheerleaders on CNBC. Just the ying to their yang. BTW china talk is silly, lets see be enslaved to china and have our whole country meltdown so we are a subsidiary of china. Or lets see pass admendents that treasuries owned by chinas or citzens of china are null and void, if they don’t like it try and bomb us. I know which why I am voting, send china back a thousand years. Is that a chinese symbol for atomic bomb>

  94. bi says:

    i expect bank stocks will shoot up after today’s show is over. these ceos give investors more confidence than geithner and frank.

  95. make money says:

    What is the author waiting for? The currencies are collapsing. It’s the great race to the bottom.

    BC,

    Everyone is waiting to get in once Gold goes over $1,000. mark my words we’ll see an increase between 1G and 1,500 in a span of a few months.

    We are now at 8.4 ounces. By years end we shoudl b eanywhere between 5 and seven.

    After I cash my gold out I pomis eto take typing classes

  96. comrade nom deplume says:

    The quiet sucking sound of business crossing the Delaware is borne out in a study that just landed on my desk.

    In the major comm. r.e. markets around Phila. and in the Lehigh valley, this study says that the downturn has hit hardest in SoJersey (SoJo). That area saw the biggest uptick in vacancies. In fact, the chart shows that SoJo, which traditionally had a much lower vacancy rate than the rest of the region, has surpassed everyone and how has the highest vacancy rate. Paradoxically, the average “class a” asking rents for SoJo are significantly lower than other regions around Phila., and only one of two where rents actually went down in the last year.

    So, commercial re vacancy is climbing dramatically in SoJo at a time when rents there are declining, and vancacies in the rest of the region were, on average, flat (and actually way down in Center City) and average rents were, on average, static.

    Whaddya think the cause of that might be? NJ’s shining reputation as a great place to do business?

  97. Stu says:

    “Whaddya think the cause of that might be? NJ’s shining reputation as a great place to do business?”

    SRS?

  98. bi says:

    assuming my friend stu has flattened out his srs, i reiterate my prediction on srs this year: $25.25

  99. make money says:

    Sean,

    I watced the whole thing. It’s amazing what a hyperinflationarty depression does to a country and a it’s people.

    I really hope that 2012 will be the year that people loose taste for big government and we go back to being pegged to shiny.

  100. Sean says:

    bi- Commercial mortgage Applications are off 80%, is recovery around the corner like you are predicting?

  101. Stu says:

    Keep reiterating Bi. At 90, you will have to muzzle it ;)

    Have you looked at the earnings reports of these so called banks that don’t need FED money? They are all banking on debt forgiveness (bad bank) which is certainly going to occur just before the shite hits the fan. Keep believing the banks are solvent.

    So did all of these poor saps…

    http://media.washingtontimes.com/media/img/photos/2008/07/15/20080714-230400-pic-160865035.jpg

  102. kettle1 says:

    Bi,

    if that call is anything like your oil call, then SRS will hit 250 first then then drop to 5.

    everyone go long and heavy on SRS once SRS peaks go long and heavy URE. heck go ahead and pick up some URE. at $3 how much lower can you ….

    Disclaimer: this is a joke not financial advice

  103. Sean says:

    Jesse Jackson is at the TARP Hearing to pick up his envelope.

  104. BC Bob says:

    “After I cash my gold out I pomis eto take typing classes”

    Make,

    I’m going to take bartending lessons. Moving to an island.

  105. 3b says:

    #102 bi: What at the end of the day is your point in all of this.

    Is the recession over? Should we all get into or back into real estate both resiendtial and commercial before prices go up again?

    What is your point??

  106. Sean says:

    Barney Frank if you want to give back the TARP money you can hand a check to me on your way out the door.

  107. Qwerty says:

    First time buyers jumping in, got a “good deal” at 10X income instead of 20X income:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123431356988570855.html

  108. Seneca says:

    Not to give a shot of adrenaline to the heart of the Maplewood-as-ghetto debate, but I was there this weekend and the downtown area near the train station was charming. Lots of little shops and restaurants, most of which are still in business. Drove around the residential area that was within 1 mile from the train and the homes are for the most part beautifully kept. I would feel very comfortable moving my family there. There were very few homes with For Sale signs in the front yard. I was a bit surprised.

    That being said, we took Springfield Ave through Maplewood and into Irvington to get the the GSP and that didn’t give us the same warm/fuzzy feeling.

    If you really believe that riots are going to break out, you probably want to be in Livingston or Millburn so you at least have towns like South Orange and Maplewood as a buffer. I suppose it will at least give you enough time to lock and load before taking aim.

  109. Alap says:

    Anyone know where I can get the monthly returns on the 3-Month T-bill for 2008?

  110. John says:

    since we are all handsome young and rich on this site we all should count our blessings and prayer for the poor who make under a million a year.

  111. ithink ithink says:

    #103 – make
    right, cos that worked well during early 80s

    Ya’ll freak out too much. Growing up on madmax, tremors & too much its a wonderful life. I’m sure your kids are going to pine for the days of i-am-legend & cast-away too.

    It’s just new times & you kids don’t get it. we’ll be fine. push-me/pull-you = china/us = two sides to every trade.

    grandpa said candy was a nickel when i was a kid buying it at a quarter & now it’s a $1.05. Stamps are going to .44 & they were .18 during the same time period.

    1981 – anyone see fed funds rate back then? so yeah, houses i guess were worth only $80k, & do have a right to get bumped up don’t they? & there was money made, it didn’t all just go away or get talked up.

    ebb & flow, push me-pull you. we print, deficit shrinks, china stops buying as predicited, & right when we’re ready… bam! raise the rates. it’s like building armys for a cold war just heaps safer than wwII’s job creation & yet there’s still a ‘winner’.

  112. John says:

    “A fall in the pit,” offered Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, “is a gain in your wit.”

    Some no doubt felt like British Prime Minister Winston Churchill when his wife told him after his defeat at the polls in 1945 that it could be a blessing in disguise. He said if so, it was “very well disguised.” Still, Davos participants saw not-fully disguised opportunities in many venues. Some were regional: India, argued one Indian executive, was even now “fraught with opportunity” for international investors. Despite the global slowdown, the Indian economy is expected to grow by 7% in 2009, and with more than a billion people, the demand for mobile phones, small cars and other consumer products will remain very brisk.

  113. ithink ithink says:

    #111 – Qwerty… exactly!

    10 times income rocks at these low rates.
    look at 1981… average house $80k, average income 20k. ta-da.

  114. Sean says:

    Seneca the people that will be rioting will be the ones with the most to lose (the middle class), and it won’t be those poor folks since they are already broke and will continue to get their government stipends, if you will be taking aim at anyone it will be your neighbor as you find them in your kitchen at 3AM rading your fridge.

  115. bi says:

    from what i heard today, WFC, BNY, GS, MS, SS and JPM are ready to give money back. Citi may struggle a while but they got gaurantee from the gov. Lewis is digesting hard bone of merrill but will get much more caesium after that.

  116. John says:

    Now BC is going to kill me, when stock hits certain low points I buy so I am not all bonds and cds. I bought some stock this morning. Means the market will be down 1,000 by Friday.

  117. Sean says:

    bi – they will giving giving back what money the Fed printed for them?

  118. bi says:

    106#, kettle, gold might go to 1500 before back to 600. but srs is different. it is good only for short-term trading (up to 1 month). assuming 40% volatility and IYR goes nowhere in 1 year, Proshare says it will lose 38% of its “value”. why bother?

  119. BC Bob says:

    “106#, kettle, gold might go to 1500 before back to 600.”

    bi,

    If it does, and you are/remain short, you will be right. If no position, you’re pissing in the wind.

  120. Alap says:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123436825805373367.html

    “Under the framework coming together, lawmakers would trim the cost of Senate-approved tax cuts intended to spur auto and home sales, but would preserve a measure intended to shield millions of middle-income Americans from the alternative minimum tax, a levy originally designed to hit the wealthy.”

    Looks like they are cutting the $15k tax credit.

  121. kettle1 says:

    SG 122

    From you link:

    obama- ‘
    Sweden, on the other hand, had a problem like this. They took over the banks, nationalized them, got rid of the bad assets, resold the banks and, a couple years later, they were going again. So you’d think looking at it, Sweden looks like a good model. Here’s the problem; Sweden had like five banks. [LAUGHS] We’ve got thousands of banks. You know, the scale of the U.S. economy and the capital markets are so vast and the problems in terms of managing and overseeing anything of that scale, I think, would — our assessment was that it wouldn’t make sense

    from the NYT
    Sweden spent 4 percent of its gross domestic product, or 65 billion kronor, the equivalent of $11.7 billion at the time, or $18.3 billion in today’s dollars, to rescue ailing banks. That is slightly less, proportionate to the national economy, than the $700 billion, or roughly 5 percent of gross domestic product, that the Bush administration estimates its own move will cost in the United States.

  122. kettle1 says:

    SG,

    O’s spin machine is in overdrive….

  123. Sean says:

    The guy the O’bama administration put in charge of the Treasury has his very own adjustable Rate Mortgage. Nothing like putting the Poster child for the New American Lifestyle who can’t manage his families finances and pay his taxes in charge of the US Treasury.

    Mr Geithner has a $1 Million Adjustable Rate Mortgage on his home – and a $400,000 HELOC.

    The couple bought a home in the Washington suburb of Bethesda, Md., in 1992 for $275,000, taking a mortgage of $202,300. Through a series of refinancings and the sale of two properties, they climbed the economic ladder until they bought a house for $1.6 million in Larchmont, N.Y., in 2004.

    All of the Geithners’ mortgages – from big banks including Nationsbanc, which is now Bank of America; Chase Manhattan, which is now J.P. Morgan Chase; and Wells Fargo – carried adjustable-rate mortgages with the risk that annual rate increases could raise their interest payments to as much as 11.25 percent, though the couple tended to refinance or sell their homes before they faced a rate adjustment.

    They also took out second mortgages, now known as home equity lines of credit, borrowing a total of nearly $1 million in 2002 on their second Bethesda home, which they bought a year earlier for $1,085,000.

    In 2004, they sold that house for $1.45 million and bought their current house in the New York suburb of Larchmont with a $1 million Wells Fargo mortgage, later adding a $400,000 home equity line of credit, also from Wells Fargo.

    http://tinyurl.com/bj4ppw

  124. BC Bob says:

    “They also took out second mortgages, now known as home equity lines of credit, borrowing a total of nearly $1 million in 2002 on their second Bethesda home”

    Sean,

    To pay taxes?

  125. kettle1 says:

    SG

    Oh wait we have spent 9 trillion so far……

    thats about 60% of GDP and we will still need to nationalize the biggest banks….

  126. Stu says:

    Bi,

    Every day you open your mouth about my beloved SRS, it goes up. When will you learn your lesson?

    My company prints the ProShares Prospectus. I suggest you order one for it will be good for my business and it might straighten you out a bit.

    Do you think the holders of Ultra Short Consumer services are complaining? As of 11/30/2008 they made a cumulative return of 111% when they should have only made 81%. Same with the ultra short semiconductors…Should have made 96% since inception but somehow made a paltry 122%. Why don’t you spew your tracking error and decay BS to those holders smart guy.

    Yes SRS hasn’t achieved a double of the index it is inverse to. But since inception, SRS has made 78% to the inverse of it’s tracking index which dropped 60%. No margin calls or interest paid to the brokerage either. Perhaps this year they overachieve and SRS goes to 600.

    Anyone can take a segment of time and show over performance and underperformance in an ultra fund. The key, as Clotpoll pointed out yesterday, is to be in the security at the correct time. Some people try to time it and they lose their shirts. Others can tolerate the risk (moi) and only sell when the fundamentals reach their desired outcome. Timing is a suckers game as is TA. Study after study has proven this. Plus, if Gorilla or any of these other so called trading programs worked, then they wouldn’t need to sell them to the sheeple. So how much money did you lose following Don Lapree’s Secrets to building your RE Empire? Did you sign up on the same day as Frank?

  127. schlivo says:

    “Seneca says:
    February 11, 2009 at 11:15 am

    That being said, we took Springfield Ave through Maplewood and into Irvington to get the the GSP and that didn’t give us the same warm/fuzzy feeling.”

    Sen,
    You don’t really want to go as far south as Springfield Ave. nor as far east as Boyden Ave. in Maplewood.

  128. meter says:

    I read that Seeking Alpha article in terms of defensive strategy (thanks to whomever posted it). I’m thinking about opening an account at a Canadian bank and parking some cash there should world currency implosions occur, the thought being that the CAD might be safer than most other options.

    If I went the gold angle I would only consider physical (otherwise it’s just another fractional reserve-based paper product and my opinion is you’re better off with USD). The only problem with that route is that having physical gold on the premises (or even off premises) would no doubt cause sleepless nights ad infinitum.

    Welcome all opinions on the Canadian account idea.

  129. Matthew says:

    Seneca #12 – don’t go through Irvington to get to the GSP, regardless of what the GPS says :-)

    You can jump onto 78 East and pick up the GSP from there in a minute.

    But you’re right – Maplewood is a nice town, but it definitely borders some shady areas.

  130. bi says:

    Josef Ackermann, chief executive of Deutsche Bank, predicted that the president’s proposed $500,000 (€390,000) cap on executive pay at US banks that accept large tranches of state aid could help it recruit their most talented people. “If you are only going to be able to pay a $500,000 bonus, I think talent will be happy to work for us. At the end of the day, this is a people business, about who has the best talent,” he said.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0ace20ee-f359-11dd-9c4b-0000779fd2ac.html?referrer_id=yahoofinance&ft_ref=yahoo1&segid=03058&nclick_check=1

  131. stan says:

    Hoboken comp killers:

  132. Victorian says:

    Bi (135) –

    We should make it legally binding on him to take away all our million dollar “talent”. I call bottom if that happens.

  133. still_looking says:

    134 Matthew,

    I might be wrong but, if you need GSP south you can also go Morris Ave then to Elmwood Rd to Stuyvesant — under the underpass and onto Parkway S in Union.

    sl

  134. Stu says:

    Let’s see how much TARP-I money the big banks actually give back. My bet is on zilch.

    The bread and circus act can be played equally as well if not better at the banks then by the gubmint.

  135. bi says:

    137#, not that simple. in this weeks barron’s, you can see some big financial advisers have more than 10B client base, most of them are associated with JP, Merrill and etc., these moneies will also be gone.

  136. bi says:

    137#, not that simple. in this weeks barron’s, you can see some big financial advisers have more than 10B client base, most of them are associated with JP, Merrill and etc., these moneies will also be gone.

  137. John says:

    http://the-visionist.blogspot.com/

    I love it we have protestors down in front of NYSE handing out pamplets, they are protesting that bad bank idea got turned down. They are pro bad bank!!!

  138. Stu says:

    I would still recommend the trip south to East 78 from anywhere in Maplewood rather than cut through the ghetto. Springfield and South Orange Avenues are especially painful with the plethora of lights and ignorance of crosswalks by the local pedestrians.

    Other method is to cut through the South Mountain Reservation, go up and down the hill on Northfield Avenue in West Orange and hook up to the GSP North off of 280, although 280 interchange with the GSP can be a traffic hotspot.

    Other option is to stop by my workplace in Union to shoot the sh*t for a while.

  139. stan says:

    Last weeks under contract in Hoboken(four units from mls):

    419 adams street, mls90000216 asking $399,000,

    Sale Date: 06/23/06 Book: 8052 Page: 194 Price: 425000 NU#: 4
    Sr1a Date Book Page Price NU# Ratio Grantee
    More Info 06/23/06 7952 336 425000 32.35

    last purchased for $425k 3 years ago….

    502 jefferson mls #80014575
    asking 499k…..under contract last week

    last purchased for $580k 2 1/2 years ago

    Sale Date: 08/25/06 Book: 8000 Page: 346 Price: 580000 NU#: 0
    Sr1a Date Book Page Price NU# Ratio Grantee
    More Info 08/25/06 8000 346 580000

    1301 adams, upper grand. asking $547,000
    mls #80011706

    last purchased 540k, 2007
    Sale Date: 05/25/07 Book: 8258 Page: 20 Price: 540000

    last but not least, it appears that we may be at 2004 prices in some sections of hoboken.

    510 monroe street, #202 asking $549,777 mls #80015101

    last purchased for 530k in 2004

    Sale Date: 09/20/04 Book: 7390 Page: 99 Price: 530000 NU#: 0
    Sr1a Date Book Page Price NU# Ratio Grantee
    More Info 09/20/04 7390 99 530000

  140. Pat says:

    How much are they paying those protestors a day…anybody know?

    Down in DC it’s $200.

    http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/doc/lab/1019745147.html

  141. Victorian says:

    Bi(140) –

    Does it also list the performance of these financial advisors?

  142. Outofstater says:

    Sorry if this has already been posted:
    From the Latin American Herald Tribune –
    “GM To Use Bailout Billion To Invest In Brazil”

    http://www.infowars.com/gm-to-use-bailout-billion-to-invest-in-brazil/

    Ya gotta love these guys.

  143. chicagofinance says:

    Why men don’t write advice columns

    Dear Walter:
    I hope you can help me here. The other day, I set off for work leaving my husband in the house watching the TV as usual. I hadn’t driven more than a mile down the road when the engine conked out and the car shuddered to a halt. I walked back home to get my husband’s help. When I got home I couldn’t believe my eyes. He was in our bedroom with the neighbor girl.
    I am 32, my husband is 34, and the neighbor girl is 22. We have been married for ten years. When I confronted him, he broke down and admitted that they had been having an affair for the past six months. I told him to stop or I would leave him. He was let go from his job six months ago and he says he has been feeling increasingly depressed and worthless. I love him very much, but ever since I gave him the ultimatum he has become increasingly distant. He won’t go to counseling and I’m afraid I can’t get through to him anymore. Can you please help?
    Sincerely,
    Sheila

    Dear Sheila:
    A car stalling after being driven a short distance can be caused by a variety of faults with the engine. Start by checking that there is no debris in the fuel line. If it is clear, check the vacuum pipes and hoses on the intake manifold and also check all grounding wires. If none of these approaches solves the problem, it could be that the fuel pump itself is faulty, causing low delivery pressure to the fuel injection system.
    I hope this helps.
    Walter

  144. gary says:

    ChiFi [148],

    LOL!!

  145. kettle1 says:

    Stu,

    I just finished doing a lot of work in elizabeth lately.. drive through union on my way their… GSP (S) to Newark, exit onto 24….

    next time i’ll bring the beer

  146. Sastry says:

    Pat [#145]…

    I doubt anyone would pay $200/day for protesting.

    I have a suspicion that it is a scam for harvest emails, physical addresses, and may be SSN’s etc.

    S

  147. John says:

    Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) — At $4.899 a gallon, Eel Chang may be selling the most expensive gasoline in the U.S.

    Less than a mile from his Ashwood Exxon station in Summit, New Jersey, motorists fill up for $1.799 a gallon at an independently owned Delta station. That’s more in line with New Jersey prices that averaged $1.598 in January, according to GasBuddy.com, a Web site that tracks prices.

    “This is just ripping people off,” said Ed Morse, 79, of West Babylon, New York, who left without making a purchase when he saw Chang’s prices. “They are just prohibitive.”

    Chang said he can’t compete on price because of the wholesale rate that Exxon Mobil Corp. charges him. The high pump price slows volume to a trickle but yields a bigger profit margin to help the money-losing station stay afloat, he said.

    “There is always someone who needs gas and is willing to pay what I charge,” Chang said. “The whole name of the game for me is to be profitable.”

  148. chicagofinance says:

    John says:
    February 11, 2009 at 10:04 am
    Barney Frank is set to go wild today, he insterted his extra large ben-wa balls this morning to get his mojo going.

    JJ: To be clear, I claim to be the first person on this board to cite “ben-wa balls”, which I believe he is anatomically unable to use for their stated purpose. The rights to all residual claims are my property.

  149. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll says:
    February 11, 2009 at 9:23 am
    Cindy (16)-
    There is no plan. There will never be a plan.

    clot: quoting Martin L. Gore…
    We have something radical in our hands.
    Nothing logical to our plans.

  150. chicagofinance says:

    make money says:
    February 11, 2009 at 10:44 am
    What is the author waiting for? The currencies are collapsing. It’s the great race to the bottom. BC, Everyone is waiting to get in once Gold goes over $1,000. mark my words we’ll see an increase between 1G and 1,500 in a span of a few months. We are now at 8.4 ounces. By years end we shoudl b eanywhere between 5 and seven.
    After I cash my gold out I pomis eto take typing classes

    albani: what, no UGL?

  151. Pat says:

    Sastry, what tipped you off? The spelling of “loosing” or something else?

  152. kettle1 says:

    Now here is a justice system one can believe in!!!!

    China airport executive sentenced to death
    Chinese court rules former airport holding company chief embezzled funds

    HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — A Chinese court has sentenced the former chairman of a state-owned holding company overseeing 30 airports, including Beijing International, to death for bribery and embezzlement amounting to more than 100 million yuan ($14.6 million), according to a report late Tuesday by the state-run Xinhua News Agency.

  153. kettle1 says:

    from denniger :

    This much is clear to me – high-dollar white-collar crimes, certainly those with an impact greater in aggregate than we currently value a single human life (which various estimates put somewhere between $5 and $50 million each) are deserving of punishment equivalent to murder, meaning either (depending on state law) life imprisonment without possibility of parole or a sentence of death.

  154. Pat says:

    Kettle, high-dollar white collar crimes should at least garner as much negative attention as some chick who has her face cut up to look like Angelina and then pumps out babies like Pez.

    Or maybe everybody convicted of a white collar crime should be sentenced to live with her, sleep with her and take care of the babies for three months. That would clean up WS.

  155. 2010 Buyer says:

    Homeowners Coming to Grips with Values

    Americans are moving closer to reality in how they perceive what their homes are worth, with more than half — 57 percent — saying their own home lost value in 2008, online hometracker Zillow says. Zillow’s math shows values down at 76% of U.S. homes.

    http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/02/10/most-us-homeowners-no-longer-in-denial-on-value-drop/14140/

  156. comrade nom deplume says:

    [151] sastry

    Agreed. My old offices overlooked Protest Central, and there are no shortage of bodies that you can round up in DC for far less.

    Further, the line 1099 required is a dead giveaway. The threshold for a 1099 is $600, not $200. Under $600, you don’t have to issue one, so why would they even raise it?

  157. comrade nom deplume says:

    [143] stu,

    I rarely drive, but will have to take you up on that someday, on the way back to Brigadoon.

  158. homeboken says:

    Stan (@144) – As my moniker suggests, I am always eager to look for comps in Hoboken. I’ve been tracking prices for a while and I can agree that there has been some decrease, but there needs to be a lot more before any sort of sales volume returns the mile square.
    Re: your last comp (510 Monroe), realize that is about 15 away from a monster public housing project and in a major flood plain. That condo should be priced at no more than $400k, and the remaining $100k should be used to put the whole building on stilts.

  159. Gman says:

    Bad news from today…

    “Working to accommodate the new, lower overall limit of the bill, negotiators effectively wiped out a Senate-passed provision for a new $15,000 tax credit to defray the cost of buying a home, these officials said. The agreement would allow taxpayers to deduct the sales tax paid on new car purchases, but not the interest on loans for the same vehicles.”

  160. Stu says:

    ChiFi:

    That advice column is just plain wrong.

    We all now that the first thing you check when your car stalls is that the gas gauge does not read empty!

  161. make money says:

    Albani,

    What the heck is a UGL?

  162. chicagofinance says:

    make money says:
    February 11, 2009 at 1:37 pm
    Albani, What the heck is a UGL?

    Booya….
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ugl

  163. make money says:

    Physical only. Ask the people in Zimbabwe if they take ETF shares for bread?

    I just got to some in small denominations and stuff it in my vault. In case they close down airports.

  164. Stu says:

    Gold keeps moving up. Doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in an economic turnaround now does it?

  165. grim says:

    #164 – Source?

  166. JBJB says:

    Grim

    Don’t have the links now, but I have read in a few places that the 15k RE tax credit will likely be removed in conference.

    This porkulus bill will end up being one of the worst pieces of legislation to ever come out of DC.

  167. Victorian says:

    BTW, I have to say – the comparison between Zimbabwe and the US is completely ridiculous. (Although, it is definitely good for a joke.)

  168. JBJB says:

    Grim

    From Yahoo Finance:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stimulus-pared-to-789-billion-apf-14325858.html

    “Working to accommodate the new, lower overall limit of the bill, negotiators effectively wiped out a Senate-passed provision for a new $15,000 tax credit to defray the cost of buying a home, these officials said. The agreement would allow taxpayers to deduct the sales tax paid on new car purchases, but not the interest on loans for the same vehicles.”

  169. Sean says:

    Capuano want to put a cap in their asses.

  170. ithink ithink says:

    for Stu:

    McKinsey & Company recently analyzed household spending on energy, for example, and found enormous waste. People heat their homes when they are not there and, thanks to leaks in their walls and heating ducts, also heat the airspace above their roof.

    A programmable thermostat, which adjusts the temperature when people are out of the house or asleep, can cost as little as $50. For less than $1,000, people can buy the thermostat, as well as hire a contractor to fix leaks and replace their light bulbs with more efficient ones. In either case, the spending often pays for itself in just a year or two.

    “There is a difference between consuming and investing,” says Ken Ostrowski of McKinsey. “And energy efficiency falls more into the category of investing.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/11/business/economy/11leonhardt.html

  171. grim says:

    I use a program ‘stat. I’ve got programs set for every day of the week based on my schedule.

    My pops put in a super high tech nerd fuzzy logic system (boiler, heater, thermo (inside and outside), that actually measures heating and hot water usage to develop a more efficient home heating/water heating schedule.

    Could probably set it to send out an email warning if you take your shower too long.

  172. afe says:

    Grim – that sounds great. Is this system available on the market or something your dad rigged up?

  173. grim says:

    Next step is to plumb in a solar water heater system to preheat incoming water. Nothing fancy, just a roof mount solar hot water heater plumbed closed loop to a heat exchanger in a holding tank.

    Nerds…

  174. Stu says:

    Thanks ithink. I have a programmable thermostat and we low out at 68 during the day and 65 at night. I brought one of those digital thermometers with a high low memory to make sure that I’m keeping it legal. You would be surprised at how hard a furnace has to work to heat a non-insulated large house. The fluctuations are outrageous. Want cheap? Check out the thermostat I have. Some of you will appreciate this one.

    http://www.programmable-thermostat.com/photos/2107-b.jpg

    The thing has more pins in it than a Madoff voodoo doll.

  175. Sastry says:

    Pat [#156]
    Sastry, what tipped you off? The spelling of “loosing” or something else?

    Ha… I treat all web offers with some skepticism. The “protest” didn’t mention the organization, etc. They also didn’t call for volunteers [when I was young, I’d have gone in if I believed in the cause, or if I believed plenty of young women believed in the cause :)].

    On the other hand, the ad seems to be for people “to help with the protest” — could be for telephones, fliers, etc.

    S

  176. zieba says:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/4590512/European-banks-may-need-16.3-trillion-bail-out-EC-dcoument-warns.html

    “…The EU is deeply worried at widening spreads on bonds sold by different European countries. In line with the risk, and the weak performance of some EU economies compared to others, investors are demanding increasingly higher interest to lend to countries such as Italy instead of Germany. Ministers and officials fear that the process could lead to vicious spiral that threatens to tear both the euro and the EU apart. ”

    A good chunk of the home loans made in eastern europe in the recent years were denominated in foreign currency, usually CHF, this of course was a page out of the ever so successful “only way it will go is straight up” playbook.

  177. zieba says:

    BTW, do you think if we paid for a dozen “whack-a-mole” coin operated machines to be carted to the fed’s crib and forced then to play until they collapsed do you think they would finally get the idea?

  178. afe says:

    Nerds…

    Ah of course something that might be useful to thousands of homes across the north – actually available on the market? Come on what was I thinking?!

  179. stan says:

    Homeboken:

    I am shocked by the 4 closings in a week. Inventory pace is 2+ years.

    I do agree, the one in their is a 100k loss, it definitely is moving from jackson towards the hudson as far as declines setting in. Slow spring/summer….watch out below…

  180. kettle1 says:

    OT

    Texas crafts plan for Mexico collapse
    “You hope for the best, plan for the worst”

    http://www.elpasotimes.com/ci_11655113?source=most_viewed

  181. grim says:

    Breaking News!

    Geithner’s omission of rescue plan details was not in error, it was the plan.

    So they have a plan, but the plan is not to share the plan.

    Get it?

    (Timmay, what happened to transparency? Did Lassie eat the only copy of the plan?)

  182. Sean says:

    Little Video to go with Timmay’s speech yesterday.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FwqA6hD7k5U&

  183. zieba says:

    He looks downright uncomfortable, at least Paulson was a BSD.

  184. kettle1 says:

    NJ at its best

    http://www.thesmokinggun.com/archive/years/2009/0210091douche1.html

    New Jersey judge dumps defamation claim filed by three “Hot Chicks”

    FEBRUARY 10–A New Jersey judge has dismissed a defamation lawsuit filed by three women whose photos appeared in the book “Hot Chicks with Douchebags.” In an amusing February 6 opinion,

    (the women had been photographed in mid-2007 while clubbing at Bliss Lounge in Clifton)

    : any pictures of grim with his chest hair out????

  185. kettle1 says:

    hmmm, perhaps that didnt come across the right way….. not suggesting your a douche grim….

  186. grim says:

    afe,

    I believe the firm that makes the units is Viessmann.

  187. chicagofinance says:

    grim says:
    February 11, 2009 at 2:11 pm
    Next step is to plumb in a solar water heater system to preheat incoming water. Nothing fancy, just a roof mount solar hot water heater plumbed closed loop to a heat exchanger in a holding tank.
    Nerds…

    grim: I thought you said that you decided to shower less to save on hot water, also wear all clothes 2 or 3 times before you wash. 4 or 5 in the winter….sweaters clean only at the end of the season????

  188. BB says:

    Help!!!

    Sorry this is long, but I need some help understanding (and maybe advice)on our current rental situation.
    My husband & I live in a 2 family unit owned by his grandmother. Grandmother used to live in other unit. Flash back to 2005…MIL & FIL feels that grandmother can no longer live by herself & they want to move her in with them. Grandmother takes out 2 loans on her house(was paid off) to help pay for new construction on MIL & FIL house. Grandmother moved in with them & second unit in our house was rented out to another family. For over 2 years, MIL & FIL have been saying that they plan to sell the house we currently rent in. That’s ok with us. However, each time we bring up, when do they plan to sell, etc…they say that they cannot sell because there is no Certificate of Occupancy. And for 2 years they say they have been working with a lawyer to help them. Is it really that hard to get a COO in New Jersey? Are there different COO’s for single family homes vs 2 Family homes? I believe they want to try & sell the house as a 2-family. Could there be other issues that just don’t want to address with us. I know that they probably owe more on the morgages that what they could sell the house for. Should they even be renting the house out if there is no COO?

  189. hirono says:

    For all you fantasists who prattle on with your talk of riots and firearms I submit for your the consideration the words of a man who acted on his convictions:

    http://web.knoxnews.com/pdf/021009church-manifesto.pdf

    I hope this gives you pause.

  190. hirono says:

    The author of the previous link –

    James Adkisson who thankfully was jailed for life for his shooting at the Unitarian Church in Knoxville, Tenn

  191. PeaceNow says:

    BB—They should not be renting out a house without a CofO.

  192. Stu says:

    hirono,

    I got pause. Did Jamil write this love letter?

  193. ithink ithink says:

    #179 – stu
    You would be surprised at how hard a furnace has to work to heat a non-insulated large house.

    Actually Stu, I wouldn’t be surprised… $350 gas bill. During the summer it was maybe $50. Our electric bill isn’t over $50.

    We’re loosing so much heat thru the original windows, with storm windows & wrapped in plastic, that the windows & plastic are soaked wet. Changing the settings on the humidifier & furnace helped a bit but there’s a significant breeze due to the draft of the old windows. We re-insulated the cantilever floor from the basement & outside ourselves & I can’t tell you how much that helped cut down the bill.

    Lots of great tips on this Dep. of Energy site that you can do yourself.

  194. make money says:

    Please tell me that 15k tax credit was axed in the compromise?

  195. Gman says:

    Yes, the $15,000 tax credit is dead.

  196. ricky_nu says:

    is there a publicly available source for mortgage information for a given property (given an address, displays liens against the home etc)?

    Thanks!

  197. Sean says:

    re: #201 – Capuano is one of a few in Congress unfortunately.

  198. make money says:

    Yes, the $15,000 tax credit is dead.

    Gman,

    Source?

  199. ithink ithink says:

    #203 – yes ricky

    depends on county. far as i know you can currently search somerset, union & morris. somerset & morris are pdf based, union has some downloadable viewer thingy.

  200. Gman says:

    Look at the source in #173 or homepage of MSNBC.

  201. Rentl0rd says:

    It looks like everybody’s tired of talking about Madoff. I can’t believe this guy is getting away with a ‘deal’.

    Add to that, his wife took out $15,500,000 just before he decided to get arrested.

    Just wrong!

  202. make money says:

    rent,

    Don’t hate the player…He’s immortal now. If OJ was set free why not Maddoff?

    Gman,

    Thi sis the only think that could have gotten some morons to go out and buy. It was good for a suckers rally in RE.

    Now, I go back to NOT making money.

  203. chicagofinance says:

    ithink ithink says:
    February 11, 2009 at 3:50 pm
    #203 – yes ricky depends on county. far as i know you can currently search somerset, union & morris. somerset & morris are pdf based, union has some downloadable viewer thingy.

    MONMOUTH also

  204. sas says:

    the whole system is a Madoff.
    It is institutionalized fraud.

    The whole system is institutionalized fraud.

    and you think your wee pension fund & 401k is safe?
    ha

    if you think, you bad wrong.

    SAS

  205. HEHEHE says:

    “Sen. Joseph Lieberman, an independent from Connecticut, predicted the bill “will be the beginning of the turnaround for the American economy.”

    Right up there with his Iraq predictions!

  206. make money says:

    Our Social Security system is a Madoff.

    Cuomo in the letter said four executives at Merrill alone received bonuses totaling $121 million. Nearly 700 employees received a bonus of at least $1 million. The letter did not disclose names of the bonus recipients.

    Anyone on this board who owns tons of shiny was atop 700 guy?

  207. HEHEHE says:

    “negotiators effectively wiped out a Senate-passed provision for a new $15,000 tax credit to defray the cost of buying a home, these officials said.”

    15K is gone, hahhaha homies

  208. John says:

    15K was the hook, sales tax on new cars is still in which is better for us non subprime folks. Chrysler now has ++++ deals.

  209. Stu says:

    Who wants an American car? You couldn’t give one to me for free!

  210. skep-tic says:

    While I never thought the $15k tax credit would lure many people into the housing market, at least it was an attempt to “stimulate” an area of the economy that is the source of many of the problems. It is ironic that this part of the bill was one of the few things to get cut when so little of the bill overall can really be described as “stimulus”

  211. Matthew says:

    Great news that the 15K give-away was cut. It would have done nothing but delay the inevitable crash in NJ real estate.

  212. skep-tic says:

    “Who wants an American car? You couldn’t give one to me for free!”

    seriously? I am not an apologist for Detroit but the difference in terms of quality is not that extreme anymore.

  213. John says:

    I wouldn’t think a short seller would be buying anything to help the US economy. I am a true american!!!! Us true americans drive German Cars and American Trucks!!!!!

    Stu says:
    February 11, 2009 at 4:16 pm
    Who wants an American car? You couldn’t give one to me for free!

  214. Iwish says:

    The problem with tax credit is it only stimulates the economy for a short period of time. It’s not a long term fix. New Jersey needs to seriosly look at cutting property taxes, and stop wasting our money on nonsense.

  215. Alap says:

    Any word on if the $7500 first time home buyer rebate still has to be repaid? I know that the first version of the house bill said it didnt, before the senate bumped it up to $15k. Haven’t read anything on that subject anymore, just that the $15k is gone.

  216. Iwish says:

    I always loved my country, but it is getting more difficult not to feel embarrassed of it.

  217. make money says:

    225 lwish,

    I always loved my country,

    Same here. But I don’t want to bend over while Ben drive me to the poor house with his monetary policy.

  218. Victorian says:

    Skep (219) –

    The tax credit would have done nothing to stimulate the economy because it is applicable to both – new and existing. New Homes have a multiplier effect. Sales of existing homes does nothing, but stimulate realtors.

    For more,

    http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/02/kash_mansori_on.html

  219. grim says:

    New Jersey needs to seriosly look at cutting property taxes, and stop wasting our money on nonsense.

    Doesn’t the combined bill now eliminate state block/grant stimulus payments?

    Doesn’t this mean Jon will need to balance the budget, and not depend on Uncle Sam to bail him out?

    My guess is he balances the budget…

    …by raising taxes.

  220. comrade nom deplume says:

    [221] skep

    But it is pronounced enough that if the cost were equal, I would have to go japanese. The product is still better, resale holds up, maintenance track record is better, and costs to operate are lower.

    In order to buy american, they would have to offer me a substantial discount, or one hell of a transferable warranty.

  221. RentinginNJ says:

    The tax credit would have done nothing to stimulate the economy because it is applicable to both

    Playing Devil’s advocate for a moment (not that I agree with the credit); the tax credit could have been argued to be a stabalizing force in the housing market. The housing market is a major drag on the economy right now. People won’t spend (and stimulate) as long as their house is dropping in value.

  222. Victorian says:

    Renting(230) –

    From the link posted in my comment –

    The demand curve shifts up by a bit ($15,000 to be precise) in the vertical direction, to D2. But chances are that this is not going to soak up all of the additional unsold inventory of houses – not unless we think that all it would have taken to prevent inventories of unsold houses from piling up in the first place was for sellers to just drop their asking price by $15,000. Myself, I have a suspicion that in most of the markets that are foundering right now many sellers still need to drop their sales price expectations by $50 thousand, $100 thousand, or more.

    If my hunch is correct, then all the house purchase tax credit will do is to modestly increase the number of houses sold each month… with no noticeable impact on house prices.

  223. Sastry says:

    skep-tic says: [#221]
    February 11, 2009 at 4:21 pm

    “Who wants an American car? You couldn’t give one to me for free!”

    seriously? I am not an apologist for Detroit but the difference in terms of quality is not that extreme anymore.
    ———-

    I agree. We have a Ford Fusion, and it is great (though a bit of a gas guzzling V6 AWD). The purchase was a on the spur, emotional choice — might seem odd for an Indian guy making an “emotional” decision to buy a Ford… I had an old Ford Contour that got vandalized.

    I would be open to buying the Fusion Hybrid when my old Corolla eventually dies. I’ve been buying time by telling my wife, “It’s not the car that needs to be good, it’s the driver”.

    The cars sometimes envy the BMW’s and Corvettes, but not often to be of any concern :)

    BTW, in my opinion, the best car on the planet is an American Car: Tesla Roadster.

  224. grim says:

    Rent,

    What good does a purchase stimulus do if people are losing their jobs?

    Who does it help right now?

    I’ll tell you who it helps, it’ll help the “rich”.

    Ok, well maybe not the wealthy, but those with solid credit and big fat down payments. Who are they? I’ll tell you that they belong to a socioeconomic group that would look out of place receiving a subsidy right now.

    The blue collar guy who was just asked to take a pay cut and lost his 401k match, you think this does him any good?

    Unfortunately, the problem is now jobs and the economy, not housing or home prices.

    What good is a tax credit if you don’t have an income?

    What good is a 4% loan if you don’t have a job to qualify.

    We’re long past the point that propping up the housing market will solve the problem.

  225. stan says:

    big hoboken loss here:

    mls#80013926
    233 washington street:
    sold last week for 910,000

    last purchased for: 1200000

    Sale Information
    Sale Date: 02/17/06 Book: 7838 Page: 118 Price: 1200000 NU#: 0
    Sr1a Date Book Page Price NU# Ratio Grantee
    More Info 02/17/06 7838 118 1200000

    300k loss

  226. grim says:

    Fix the economy, housing will follow.

    Look back over the past 5 years, this is what happens when credit and housing drive the economy.

  227. make money says:

    Vic,

    4 handle on the interest and a 15K tax credit would have helped a create at least a one year rally of about 10%.

    The rate is fixed. That alone would get buyers out. Adda free 15K tax refund and peopel will lign up again to be fooled by the same game.

    Believe that.

    Maybe they aren’t really trying to solve housing.

  228. Sastry says:

    Victorian says:

    “Sales of existing homes does nothing, but stimulate realtors.”

    The opposite (i.e. “lack of sales of existing homes”) can cripple the economy, so increase in sales of existing homes should be a net positive? No?

  229. Victorian says:

    “Fix the economy, housing will follow.”

    – Grim for Treas Sec.

  230. Clotpoll says:

    grim (233)-

    There you go, making sense again.

  231. comrade nom deplume says:

    [179] grim

    My BIL installed one that he made himself. Even simpler than what you describe. His place had a flat roof, with black rubber membrame roof. Got quite hot. The dedicated line to the hot water tank is diverted to a line to the roof, water goes into black tubing wrapped in a circle approx. 6 feet across, then back down to the tank. Shutoffs allow system to be bypassed. Later, he and I built a wood frame for it so that he could enclose the loop under glass.

    About 10 years ago, he added a second level to the house. Don’t know if his solar preheater survived.

    He also has connections with tree companies and they dump excess wood in his driveway. He uses a wood stove that is always going and heats about half of his huge (and very inefficient) house (lotta floor to ceiling glass in this one).
    He gets so much wood this way that this year, instead of supplementing it with wood from his “nompound” in Maine, he actually had to bring wood up there.

    This guy would live off the grid if he could. I have to discuss the Clotpound with him sometime.

  232. skep-tic says:

    “In order to buy american, they would have to offer me a substantial discount,”

    Agree with this. but those discounts are currently available so if price is your main concern, American cars are worth considering I think

  233. make money says:

    Grim 223,

    85% of people ar eemployed and 85 of people will jump on 4% fixed with a 15K subsidy.

    The rish and the ultra wealthy will benefit when Geitner subsidizes them to take risk and start buying toxic junk.

    That my friend will be close to a trillion worth of subsidiez.

    A guy and his wife making 70K each, paying taxes, commuting, and renting will show up to this line and buy an overpriced house with an affordable mortgage.

  234. Clotpoll says:

    Besides, propping up the housing market is not about helping buyers, sellers, borrowers, etc.

    It’s about getting a floor underneath MBS values, so that bankers and the gubmint can pretend they have value, then trade them with taxpayer financing and backstopping.

  235. Al says:

    We’re long past the point that propping up the housing market will solve the problem.

    But it is not what bloomberg radio talking heads are telling me – every night some economist on bloomberg radio interview would say – the key to economic recovery is stopping decline in housing market!!!!!!!!!!

    EVERY DAY!!!

  236. chicagofinance says:

    I heard SIRI is going to meet its maker…..does this headline represent the equivalent of extraplanetary arson?

    A commercial satellite was destroyed in what may be the first in-orbit collision with another satellite

  237. JBJB says:

    “15K tax refund”

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t think the 15k was ever “refunadable”. It was only a credit towrds tax owed. That’s likely why it was removed, it was essentailly a benefit to high income earners (god forbid). You would actually have to owe 15K in taxes (or 7.5K x 2 years) to claim the credit. If you didn’t owe, you couldn’t just take the credit and get a 15K refund check.

  238. afe says:

    thanks grim!

  239. Sean says:

    One point from today’s TARP Hearings. There was a questions about further declines in Real Estate prices, a number of 25% further declines was tossed out there and not one banker disagreed.

    I will try and find the clip.

  240. I heard SIRI is going to meet its maker

    I’m going to miss Ron and Fez when it does.
    It’s not too surprising though; too much spent on people no one wanted to hear; Oprah, Martha, etc (both Sirius and XM).
    Sat radio was a great idea killed by poor implementation and timing.

  241. chicagofinance says:

    toshiro_mifune says:
    February 11, 2009 at 5:02 pm
    I heard SIRI is going to meet its maker

    I’m going to miss Ron and Fez when it does.
    It’s not too surprising though; too much spent on people no one wanted to hear; Oprah, Martha, etc (both Sirius and XM).
    Sat radio was a great idea killed by poor implementation and timing

    tosh: it doesn’t go away in a Chap 11

  242. RentinginNJ says:

    What good does a purchase stimulus do if people are losing their jobs?
    Who does it help right now?

    Grim, you are right, it won’t help right now. Housing still needs to correct and for most houses, $15k isn’t enough of a correction (At least not in NJ). At best, it raises the floor where we finally hit the bottom.

    And this only happens if the govt:

    1) Commits to leave tax credit in place for “foreseeable future”, not just one year. I (& lenders) need to know that if I buy and then need to sell in the near future, there will be a pool of buyers who will have the $15k to draw on
    2) Make the credit assignable to the lender or immediately refundable so that it can effectively be used toward a down payment.

    If 1 & 2 were to happen, this could have the effect of “artificially” raising incomes by $15k & bringing the house price to income ratio back into line a bit sooner than otherwise would have happened.

    Again, just playing Deveil’s advocate. My preference is to let the chips fall where they may…

  243. hughesrep says:

    I’ll be buying soon, if we can sell our townhouse. I’d rather not buy right now, but we have a daughter, and another on the way. A two bedroom townhouse doesn’t cut it.

    We have equity, 20%+ down, enough left over in case something happens, will be buying a house we can afford on one salary and good credit.

    I would have liked that $15K. Alas I didn’t expect to get it, I played by the rules. Eff em.

  244. Al says:

    In addition – now why would you buy nutill you “Rightful” tax Credit of 15K is not there?? where is my mortgage of 4%??

    Just as sellers expect certain price buyers expect certain things they were promised as well.

    Goverment really doing it’s best to screrw up economy as much as possible by constantly changing the rules.

  245. #250 – tosh: it doesn’t go away in a Chap 11

    A number of people, correctly or not, are under the impression that Chap 11 is just the first step and the combined company won’t make it to years end.

  246. Clarification says:

    Just wanted to know the full details on the 7.5k credit passed for first time buyers… Just want to understand who qualifies for my tax money.

  247. Hobokenite says:

    “The opposite (i.e. “lack of sales of existing homes”) can cripple the economy,”

    How does that work exactly?

  248. yikes says:

    went to the store today to buy some bullets. only had 2 40 cal “home protection” boxes left! picked both of them and a box of range bullets.

    asked the guy what’s up … he said the biggest reason is because everyone feels Obama is going to begin taxing bullets heavily.

    the other reason, he deadpanned – “people are worried about crime.”

  249. jmacdaddio says:

    Clarification,

    I qualified for most of the $7500 credit. It gets phased out beyond a certain income level. Thanks for your help!

  250. ithink ithink says:

    15k – c’mon, 15k? really?

    did you really want to pay top dollar to then throw 15k at a roof, a furnace, windows, AC, & possible granite-or-chinese-made-dry-wall remediation?

    Unless you do the historical average due diligence, most need to let the prices fall 30k+ cos you’re going to have to sink 15k into it. in the first two years, in addition to your paint & furniture you buy… you will! oops paint & estate sales if you’re smert cos you’ll change your mind in 9months after feeling out the space & regret it all.

    Most home owners, despite the manuals or rules of thumb did NOT do the upkeep. Some owner over the course of a few generations gets stuck for certain repairs & there’s a big baby-booming-not-me generation trying to do bare minimum which is why this country is in this current state, quality not quantity indeed.

    Every 50 years a roof needs replaced twice, minimum. at an average of 7 years on ownership, that’s a lot of people playing pass the buck musical chairs. gotta replace the roof entirely every 25, a minimum 2 owners get stuck with that “pride of ownership” task. during the last run-up, ‘you’ll get that back’ was the mantra, no more & you never will, unless that mosaic of the rooster above your sink lays a golden egg. oh wait, maybe you got fancy toilets.

    you buy a house to put even more money into it beyond the mortgage payment & that ought be there in your calculation before you buy.

    Not much of ANYTHING has been done to fix housing but build more. look at the numbers of those on the trifecta of septic/well/oil… there’s even k&t wiring out there.

    Prices are coming down, don’t rush, 7 & 8% is still a low rate historically… get a good/decent price & hopefully can afford the fix-ups required.

    houses are the worst investment ever & i’m so very glad i bought one.

  251. BC Bob says:

    “85% of people ar eemployed and 85 of people will jump on 4% fixed with a 15K subsidy.”

    Make,

    15K on a 500K house is only 3%. You’ll be down more than 3% at closing. Only a fool would go for this. Then again, [a fool], you may have a point. Also, on that 500K purchase the bank may demand 20% down. Let’s go to Dandy Don, “Turn out the Lights”

  252. Dink says:

    Make,

    “4 handle on the interest and a 15K tax credit would have helped a create at least a one year rally of about 10%.”

    I couldn’t agree with you more. Based on what I’ve read on other comment boards & forums and just talking around the office, there were plenty of people who were willing to dive in if this happens (unless its actually just a bunch of NAR members hammering the boards).

  253. grim says:

    “85% of people ar eemployed and 85 of people will jump on 4% fixed with a 15K subsidy.”

    Right.

    Now remove those who already own a home.

    Remove those who rent and don’t want to buy.

    Remove those whose income won’t support homeownership.

    Remove those with bad credit.

    Remove those without a downpayment.

    Remove those worried about their jobs.

    Remove those worried about falling home prices.

    I’m not sure if your statement contained a typo or not, but you might be spot on with your estimate of those who would take the credit.

    85

  254. Sastry says:

    Hobokenite says:
    February 11, 2009 at 5:14 pm

    “The opposite (i.e. “lack of sales of existing homes”) can cripple the economy,”

    How does that work exactly?

    ———-
    Just a thought… if houses aren’t getting sold, then people cannot move easily, and have to sell at a big loss if they have to move.

    I was talking about more of a “highly illiquid market” [where you cannot sell the house at all] rather than “low prices”.

  255. grim says:

    I’m sorry, I’m as greedy as the next guy but something seems wrong when the government gives me a $15k subsidy to go buy a home while my neighbor is getting foreclosed on because he just lost his job or had a medical crisis.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m a vulture, but this doesn’t sit well with me.

    Maybe in the face of crisis, I’ve developed a bit of a conscience, but I’d rather see that money go to fund worker reeducation programs, social welfare, or “REAL” infrastructure projects (the kind of projects our kids will enjoy).

  256. grim says:

    I’d have liked to see bankruptcy cramdowns as part of this bill.

  257. BC Bob says:

    JB [264],

    They should just stop devising gimmicks and walk away. Without interference, the market can find its true bottom in 2-3 years. However, with manipulation, freezes, adjustments, etc, they’ll drag this out to 2019-2020.

    BC Bob san

  258. skep-tic says:

    When you think about all of the great things that could’ve been done with this $800b, it is just sad what this stimulus bill amounts to. And the people in Congress are patting themselves on the back for this

  259. HEHEHE says:

    Grim,

    Cramdowns will only make it harder to get a mortgage.

  260. skep-tic says:

    the medical crisis stuff is just unacceptable. the gov’t should provide catastrophic medical coverage for everyone. any person could lose their job and get hit by a car, get some rare disease, etc and just be ruined financially in an instant.

  261. BC Bob says:

    skep [267],

    They have committed approx $9T thru the different programs; capital injections, cash for trash, buying mbs/treasuries, liquidity vehicles, etc.. They could have bought close to 90% of the outstanding mortgages with $9T. Then again, who would take the other side of the CDS?

  262. HEHEHE says:

    Clot,

    Watch this second Gerald Celente clip. Great stuff. Commercial RE is toast.

    http://hoboken411.com/archives/16537#comment-135515

  263. ithink ithink says:

    cramdowns solved, print more money, make everything truly worth the over inflated price.

  264. sas says:

    Bakken Oil Production

    SAS

  265. skep-tic says:

    By David Crary
    The Associated Press

    Bursting with indignation, legions of m-arijuana advocates are urging a boycott of Kellogg Co., including all of its popular munchies, for deciding to cut ties with Olympic hero Michael Phelps after he was photographed with a p-ot pipe.

    On “Saturday Night Live,” Seth Myers questioned whether mar-ijuana use was in fact at odds with Kellogg’s image.

    “Every one of your mascots is a wild-eyed cartoon character with uncontrollable munchies,” Myers said. “Every one of your products sounds like a wish a genie granted at a Phish concert.”

    On the Huffington Post, blogger Lee Stranahan pursued that theme in a proposed petition to the company that said in part, “We believe that most people over the age of 12 would not eat Kellogg’s products were they not wicked high.”

    Even the Marij-uana Policy Project’s petition noted the difficulty inherent in its call-to-arms:

    “Given all these facts and the total disregard for your customer base … we the undersigned plan to BOYCOTT your products. And we’re serious. Even though the Pop Tarts thing will be HARD.”

  266. sas says:

    and you get a headache or layoff because your told because its the “subprime crisis” and they spin it to play if off on the dumb sap that got a loser loan or the same sap that was lied to by the banks in the form of a predatory loan (and you give the same people a “rescue” in the form of a bailout).

    but what about the
    emerging market bubble
    outstanding credit card bubble
    commercial RE bubble
    foreign exchange derivatives bubble
    credit default swaps bubble
    Middle east going broke and won’t/can’t buy T bills (and you wonder why the Fed will buy them).

    buckle up, the shakeout is far from over, and throw away that Time magazine, because omama is a puppet and will disappoint you more than words can say.

    :)
    SAS

  267. Alap says:

    can anyone refer a good/knowledgeable RE agent in the middlesex county/piscatawy area?

  268. chicagofinance says:

    Lost: where the hell are you?

  269. Sean says:

    And they say Pennsyltucky is better then NJ.

    HA! I say.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090211/ap_on_re_us/courthouse_kickbacks

  270. lostinny says:

    276 ChiFi
    Been busy. And trying to work out and not be on the computer all day. Email me!

  271. comrade nom deplume says:

    [277] sean

    Musta been a NJ transplant.

    BTW, I read today about an NJ judge that was disbarred for being a pedophile. But I am sure that he was an aberration. Nothing like that happens here, right? ;-)

  272. grim says:

    the medical crisis stuff is just unacceptable. the gov’t should provide catastrophic medical coverage for everyone. any person could lose their job and get hit by a car, get some rare disease, etc and just be ruined financially in an instant.

    I’d back it, this kind of legislation makes sense to me. Unfortunately, in its place we get various government entities spending near a trillion dollars trying to manipulate mortgage rates. I guess this is what happens when you’ve got millions of dollars in lobbying power in Washington (NAR, NAHB, etc).

  273. comrade nom deplume says:

    [241] skep,

    And yes, I am considering. In fact, that is our spring project (and the plasma tv). Those dollars are not doing much for me in my bank account so I might as well avoid the future inflation devaluation on them.

  274. Clotpoll says:

    HE (271)-

    Nice jacket.

  275. grim says:

    Can I ask a silly question?

    If we can include a $15k subsidy for buyers of new and used homes, why can’t we offer a subsidy on used cars too?

    Doesn’t buying a used car stimulate the economy? It doesn’t you say? So what exactly is stimulative about someone buying a used home?

    What about a renter stimulus, why can’t renters get a tax credit equal to 10% of the rent paid over the next two years on new leases.

    Rents are falling, why not support those?

  276. comrade nom deplume says:

    [195] hirono

    Did not read the link. But I posit that it depends heavily on what one’s convictions are.

    Or are you suggesting that those of us who own, and have been in the sport since before you were born, or who care deeply about protecting our families, are potential nut jobs?

  277. comrade nom deplume says:

    [283] grim,

    When its all said and done, you, me, clotpoll, kettle, chifi, and stu will be the only ones not sucking at the government teat.

    Where’s MY fcuking bailout?????????????

  278. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Nom 285 You folks are going to have to pay a lot of taxes to support everyone.

  279. grim says:

    Tell you what, I’d love to be a fly on the wall in any Realtor organization across the country right now.

    Wonder how they are going to spin this one.

  280. grim says:

    So what is the monorail in the final stimulus package? Or is the the package itself?

    The Monorail Song

    Lyle Lanley: Y’know, a town with money is like a mule with a spinning wheel. No one knows how he got it and danged if he knows how to use it!
    (audience laughs)
    Homer: Heh heh! Mule.
    Lyle Lanley: The name’s Lanley. Lyle Lanley. And I come before you good people tonight with an idea. Probably the greatest… Aw, it’s not for you. It’s more of a Shelbyville idea.
    Mayor Quimby: Now wait just a minute! We’re twice as smart as the people of Shelbyville! Just tell us your idea and we’ll vote for it!
    Lyle Lanley: All right, I tell you what I’ll do. I’ll show you my idea! I give you the Springfield Monorail! (audience gasps) I’ve sold monorails to Brockway, Ogdenville, and North Haverbrooke, and by gum, it put them on the map!
    Well, sir, there’s nothing on earth
    Like a genuine,
    Bona fide,
    Electrified,
    Six-car
    Monorail! …
    What’d I say?
    Ned Flanders: Monorail!
    Lyle Lanley: What’s it called?
    Patty & Selma: Monorail!
    Lyle Lanley: That’s right! Monorail!
    (crowd chants “Monorail” softly and rhythmically)
    Miss Hoover: I hear those things are awfully loud.
    Lyle Lanley: It glides as softly as a cloud.
    Apu: Is there a chance the track could bend?
    Lyle Lanley: Not on your life, my Hindu friend.
    Barney: What about us brain-dead slobs?
    Lyle Lanley: You’ll all be given cushy jobs.
    Grampa: Were you sent here by the devil?
    Lyle Lanley: No, good sir, I’m on the level.
    Chief Wiggum: The ring came off my pudding can.
    Lyle Lanley: Take my pen knife, my good man.
    I swear it’s Springfield’s only choice…
    Throw up your hands and raise your voice!
    All: Monorail!
    Lyle Lanley: What’s it called?
    All: Monorail!
    Lyle Lanley: Once again…
    All: Monorail!
    Marge: But Main Street’s still all cracked and broken!
    Bart: Sorry, Mom, the mob has spoken.
    All: Monorail!
    Monorail!
    Monorail!
    Monorail!
    Homer: Mono… D’oh!

  281. Clotpoll says:

    grim (287)-

    I responded to all the NAR, Liniger and Realogy blast e-mails asking for my support with an e-mail back to them.

    I think my exact words were “fcuk no”…or something to that effect.

    So I think my local board is probably putting their heads together to come up with a way to bust my ass.

  282. Joe says:

    Asking prices in Hunterdon, Somerset & Middlsex counties are still way too high. Do a search between $300 – $400k and nothing but crap comes up. Maybe one day prices will come down & sellers will have no choice to lower asking prices.

  283. CAIBC says:

    Joe, maybe one day….we can all dream….

    the more money i stash away in my bank account, the more i am starting to get worried that my bank is going to be caught up in some ponzi scheme and i will have to wait in line to get my 100K check from the FDIC….

    i would rather put that money toward a home that my family and i can enjoy!

    after seeing the theatrics on TV today with the ‘masters of the universe’ (thats what a congressman called the bank CEOs) and their sheer disregard for the mess they have created, i am beginning to think to take all my money out of my bank and put it in a local bank or even my credit union….

    CAIBC

  284. CAIBC says:

    oh by the way, i bank with BOA…and the BOA CEO scared me the most!

    what are everyones thoughts on moving money to a credit union? never really banked with them but i am guessing that they were more conservative than these ‘masters of the universe’?

  285. grim says:

    oh by the way, i bank with BOA…and the BOA CEO scared me the most!

    Poor guy looked like he was having a heart attack. His defensiveness didn’t exactly inspire confidence either.

  286. DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:

    I will not suck a govt teat, I’d die first.

  287. grim says:

    New thread, move it up!

  288. CAIBC says:

    more like stupid than lack of confidence….i cant belive with that kind of a look on his face, that anyone would take him seriously at a board meeting!!!

    and did everyone hear the compensation packages these morons got? i cant believe

  289. LordJohnWarfen says:

    You guys read about the shooting in Red Bank the other night? I’m guessing this is only going to get worse, a return to the early 90’s. Buckle up.

  290. Stu says:

    Grim…about the 15k credit and 4% fixed rate. I am well in agreement with you. Few have the DP, and those who own are looking to downsize, not upsize. Houses will sell when their cost gets back down to affordability. Unfortunately, the viscous economic cycle (deflation) will make this take that much longer. False floors (tax credits, artificial interest rates) only serve to delay the natural adjustment. Our poor leaders. They will never learn.

  291. Paul Fraser says:

    RBC Bank President Gordon Nixon – Salary $11.73 Million

    $100,000 – MISTAKE (FISHERMEN’S LOAN)

    I’m a commercial fisherman fighting the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC Bank) over a $100,000 loan mistake. I lost my home, fishing vessel and equipment. Help me fight this corporate bully by closing your RBC Bank account.

    There was no monthly interest payment date or amount of interest payable per month on my loan agreement. Date of first installment payment (Principal + interest) is approximately 1 year from the signing of my contract.
    Demand loan agreements signed by other fishermen around the same time disclosed monthly interest payment dates and interest amounts payable per month.The lending policy for fishermen did change at RBC from one payment (principal + interest) per year for fishing loans to principal paid yearly with interest paid monthly. This lending practice was in place when I approached RBC.
    Only problem is the loans officer was a replacement who wasn’t familiar with these type of loans. She never informed me verbally or in writing about this new criteria.

    Phone or e-mail:
    RBC President, Gordon Nixon, Toronto (416)974-6415
    RBC Vice President, Sales, Anne Lockie, Toronto (416)974-6821
    RBC President, Atlantic Provinces, Greg Grice (902)421-8112 mail to:greg.grice@rbc.com
    RBC Manager, Cape Breton/Eastern Nova Scotia, Jerry Rankin (902)567-8600
    RBC Vice President, Atlantic Provinces, Brian Conway (902)491-4302 mail to:brian.conway@rbc.com
    RBC Vice President, Halifax Region, Tammy Holland (902)421-8112 mail to:tammy.holland@rbc.com
    RBC Senior Manager, Media & Public Relations, Beja Rodeck (416)974-5506 mail to:beja.rodeck@rbc.com
    RBC Ombudsman, Wendy Knight, Toronto, Ontario 1-800-769-2542 mail to:ombudsman@rbc.com
    Ombudsman for Banking Services & Investments, JoAnne Olafson, Toronto, 1-888-451-4519 mail to:ombudsman@obsi.ca

    http://www.pfraser.blogspot.com

    http://www.corporatebully.ca

    http://www.youtube.com/CORPORATEBULLY

    http://www.p2pnet.net/story/17877

    “Fighting the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC Bank) one customer at a time”

  292. abowlabowsjax says:

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    Our website [url=http://www.seperation-skoede.info/seperation/seperation-Laesoe-.html]ejerlejlighed[/url] really are not feeding any cash

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