From the National Association of Realtors:
Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes for Metropolitan Areas – Q4 2008
Metropolitan Area Single Family Median Home Price
Atlantic City, NJ
2007 Q4 – $278,800
2008 Q4 – $229,100 (Down 17.8% Year over Year)
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA
2007 Q4 – $457,400
2008 Q4 – $390,400 (Down 14.6% Year over Year)
New York-Wayne-White Plains, NY-NJ
2007 Q4 – $519,200
2008 Q4 – $458,600 (Down 11.7% Year over Year)
NY: Edison, NJ
2007 Q4 – $379,300
2008 Q4 – $343,600 (Down 9.4% Year over Year)
NY: Nassau-Suffolk, NY
2007 Q4 – $461,700
2008 Q4 – $381,300 (Down 17.4% Year over Year)
NY: Newark-Union, NJ-PA
2007 Q4 – $435,800
2008 Q4 – $373,600 (Down 14.3% Year over Year)
From the National Association of Realtors:
Median Sales Price of Existing Condos/Coops/Apts for Metropolitan Areas – Q4 2008
Metropolitan Area Existing Condo/Coop/Apt Median Home Price
New York-Wayne-White Plains, NY-NJ
2007 Q4 – $310,900
2008 Q4 – $292,600 (Down 5.9% Year over Year)
NY: Newark-Union, NJ-PA
2007 Q4 – $315,100
2008 Q4 – $279,300 (Down 11.4% Year over Year)
NY: Edison, NJ
2007 Q4 – $274,300
2008 Q4 – $262,800 (Down 4.2% Year over Year)
NY: Nassau-Suffolk, NY
2007 Q4 – $249,200
2008 Q4 – $231,800 (Down 7.0% Year over Year)
From the National Association of Realtors:
Total Sales: Single-Family, Condos and Co-ops
New Jersey Total Sales – Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
2005 – 154,900
2006 – 137,400
2007 Q4 – 119,400
2008 Q4 – 101,100 (Down 15.3% Year over Year)
From CNN/Money:
Home prices in record plunge
National Association of Realtors reports that home prices dropped a record 12.4% in 2008 – the biggest fall in 30 years.
Home prices fell 12.4% during 2008, the largest yearly decline since the National Association of Realtors began keeping comprehensive records in 1979.
The median price for a U.S. home sold during the fourth quarter of 2008 fell to $180,100, down from $205,700 during the last quarter of 2007.
…
The vast majority of metropolitan areas, 134 out of 153, recorded price declines compared with the last quarter of 2007.
From Bloomberg:
Home Prices Tumble in 88% of U.S. Cities on Foreclosures
Home prices fell in almost nine out of every 10 U.S. cities in the fourth quarter as foreclosure sales drove down prices.
The median price of a U.S. home declined 12 percent from a year earlier and sales of properties with mortgages in default accounted for 45 percent of all transactions, the Chicago-based National Association of Realtors said today. Prices fell in 134 U.S. metropolitan areas, rose in 18 and were unchanged in one, the biggest share of declines in data going back to 1979.
The worst U.S. housing slump since the Great Depression is deepening as foreclosures drain value from neighboring homes and the economic recession worsens. The number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits rose to a record 4.81 million in the last week of January as companies such as Caterpillar Inc. and Home Depot Inc. slashed jobs. The U.S. lost 2.6 million jobs last year in the biggest workforce reduction since 1945.
U.S. foreclosure filings exceeded 250,000 for the 10th straight month in January as falling prices trapped owners in homes worth less than the mortgage, RealtyTrac Inc. said in a report today.
From the AP:
Median home prices fell nationwide in 4Q
Home prices fell in nearly nine out of every 10 U.S. cities in the fourth quarter of last year as low-cost foreclosures flooded the market and the housing market’s decline spread nationwide.
The National Association of Realtors said Thursday that median sales prices of existing homes declined in 134 out of 153 metropolitan areas compared with the same period in 2007. Sales fell in all but six states.
Nationwide, the median sales price was $180,100, down 12 percent from a year ago. But price declines of 30 percent or more were found in much of California, plus parts of Michigan, Florida, Arizona and Nevada. The biggest drop, of more than 50 percent, was in Fort Myers, Fla.
…
A nasty brew of strict lending standards, falling home values, soaring foreclosures and a severe recession is filtering through the housing market.Nationwide, more than 274,000 homes received at least one foreclosure-related notice in January, according to RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, Calif.-based foreclosure listing service. That was down 10 percent from December, but still up 18 percent from the same month a year ago. The numbers would have been higher if not for efforts to stall the foreclosure process.
More than 2 million American homeowners faced foreclosure proceedings last year, and that number could soar as high as 10 million in the coming years depending on the severity of the recession, according to a report last month by Credit Suisse.
First?
yep
Price drops; we are half way to minimum affordability.
If you don’t pay capital gains on 250K single/500K married on real estate when you sell, can you claim a loss against future real estate gains if you sell with a loss?
Also, Jill (from last thread)…You don’t need hazmat to deal with mouse droppings. Just wash your hands a lot, wear goggles and keep your mouth closed when taking the old ceiling down. When I did my basement last year, the amount of mouse droppings (80 years worth) was astonishing. Fortunately, they mostly seemed petrified and any disease they may have carried probably ran its course over the past decades.
Stu, can’t carry take primary property re losses or carry forward and call yips to collect the dead mice.
[4] stu, jill
I would also recommend a filter mask, and not just some surgical mask but one with a full mouthpiece and removable filter. You can get them at HD or Lowes.
Remember Hantavirus? Would not want to chance anything similar.
German 10-year Bund auction fails for second successive time
It was the second successive failure this year of a 10-year Bund auction – usually one of the most sought-after – as demand fell 20 per cent short of the €6bn (£5.4bn)the German government wanted.
Gary Jenkins, head of fixed income at Evolution, said: “The failure of a German bond auction is a sign of the difficulties governments are going to face in raising debt at these historically low yields.”
Nom,
Black plague is also carried by mice…. although mostly in the southwest, the very small chance is still there. dont worry, so antibiotics will knock that out though.
This is why we will see shortages in the next year or so.
The End of the Trade Bubble?
Recent data from the U.S. and China hint at the bursting of a trade bubble, which may have been fueled by the credit bubble
On Feb. 11 the U.S. government announced that both imports and exports had plunged in December, continuing a trend that started in July. Since that midsummer peak, goods imports and exports are down by more than 25%. Imported goods, in particular, are now down to the level last reached in 2005.
The Downward Trend Is Global
On the same day, the Chinese government reported even more dramatic figures. Measured on a year-over-year basis, shipments from China to the rest of the world are down 18%, while shipments into China are down 43%.
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/feb2009/db20090211_460433.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily
Vic,
If the german bond auctions have failed twice now, what does that hold for the rest of the EU given that germany is the economic strong man in europe
Use caution interpreting these numbers, the sizable drops in median are likely due to mix-shift issues as REOs and short-sales are becoming more a larger percentage of overall sales.
Kettle (10) –
Hard to believe, but the EU is more fcuked than us. We truly are the one eyed king in a kingdom of the blind. I think USTs are still the way to go this year.
Too much debt denominated in dollars and yen.
#11 grim: True, but it still shows how much the landscape has changed, and where prices are continuing to go. And that is down.
So much for telecom jobs in Jersey.
From the Daily Record:
Retirement community eyed for site in Hanover
The Alcatel-Lucent property is on the market, and a company that develops and manages retirement communities is considering purchasing the land, Mayor Leonardo Fariello said.
Erickson Retirement Communities sent the township a letter in June expressing interest in the 200-acre tract in the Whippany section of the township, and in the fall, committee members toured a nearby Erickson community — Cedar Crest in Pequannock — to see what a campus might be like Fariello said.
Check out the charts in this article
Why Obama’s new Tarp will fail to rescue the banks
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9ebea1b8-f794-11dd-81f7-000077b07658.html
Sure, we’re not making any more land, but there is plenty of land available where our jobs used to be.
The toxic debts of European banks risk overwhelming a number of EU governments and may pose a “systemic” danger to the broader EU banking system, according a confidential memo prepared by the European Commission. “Estimates of total expected asset write-downs suggest that the budgetary costs of asset relief could be very large both in absolute terms and relative to GDP in member states,” said the document, prepared for a closed-door meeting of EU finance ministers. “For some member states, it may be the case that asset relief for banks is no longer an option, due to their existing budgetary constraints and/or the size of their banks’ balance sheet relative to GDP.
The IMF says European and British banks have 75pc as much exposure to US toxic debt as American banks themselves, yet they have been much slower to take their punishment. Write-downs have been $738bn in the US: just $294bn in Europe. Global banks have so far written down half the $2,200bn losses estimted by the IMF. On top of this, EU banks have $1,600bn of exposure to Eastern Europe — increasingly viewed as Europe’s subprime debacle, and EU corporate debts are 95pc of GDP compared to 50pc in the US, a mounting concern as default rates surge.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/4593539/European-banks-toxic-debts-risk-overwhelming-EU-governments.html
RE: “home prices dropped a record 12.4% in 2008 – the biggest fall in 30 years.”
It’s different here?
can we ship our so called back talent, that requires billion in bonuses to maintian, off to the german banks already????
Here is the monster pump and dump SAS
Half of all CDOs of ABS failed
Almost half of all the complex credit products ever built out of slices of other securitised bonds have now defaulted, according to analysts, and the proportion rises to more than two-thirds among deals created at the peak of the cycle. The defaults have affected more than $300bn worth of these collateralised debt obligations, which were built from bits of other asset backed securities (ABS) such as mortgage bonds, other CDOs and structured bonds, or derivatives of any of these, according to analysts at Wachovia and Morgan Stanley. So-called CDOs of ABS caused huge losses to banks such as Merrill Lynch, UBS and Citigroup, which held large amounts of the supposedly safest, top-rated chunks of them. They have since been damned by bodies such as the Bank for International Settlements as being too complex to risk manage effectively.
link for 19
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ddaa47f4-f79b-11dd-a284-000077b07658.html
dollars to donuts, nationalization is a forgone conclusion.
Reviews, ‘Stress Tests’ May Reveal Deeper Bank Troubles
The rigorous review the Obama administration plans to conduct across the nation’s largest banks as part of its revamped bailout could reveal a troubled network of financial institutions that have been slow to acknowledge bad loans and are struggling to build reserves. If the condition of many banks is as weak as some analysts predict, regulators could be faced with tough decisions: Do they use federal money to help prop up flailing banks, or do they shut down some firms and limit the cost to taxpayers?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123430484537570039.html
When do we see the results of yesterdays record treasury auction????
kettle,
NYT seems to be of the same mind.
February 12, 2009
Bank Test May Expand U.S. Regulators’ Role
By ERIC DASH
Nearly 100 federal banking regulators descended on Citigroup in New York on Wednesday morning. Dozens more fanned out through Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and other big banks across the nation.
It was just another workday. For years, regulators have embedded themselves inside the nation’s major banks to monitor their financial health.
But now these regulators could become the arbiters of American finance. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner is empowering them to decide which banks are strong enough to survive on their own — and which must be compelled to accept new bailouts from Washington, along with any strings that might be attached to them.
At the center of this effort, part of the Obama administration’s plan to shore up the nation’s financial industry, is a new stress test for banks that federal officials are devising.
Details are scant. But exams for 18 or so of the biggest banks are set to begin immediately, and the first results could arrive within weeks. They are not expected to be made public for every institution. Regulators were also discussing whether to apply the stress test to small and midsize banks, according to an administration official.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/12/business/12stress.html
RE: “The rigorous review the Obama administration plans to conduct across the nation’s largest banks as part of its revamped bailout could reveal a troubled network of financial institutions”
Ready, Fire, Aim!
OK, so at beginning of 2008, I thought that prices nationally would be down 10%. Things obviously turned out worse than I thought. 2009 I am saying prices will be down 15% nationally (I believe this will be the biggest down year in the cycle). Be curious to hear others’ predictions
[only because I worked there….]
Hantavirus: endemic to the Southwest – even then, quite rare. I saw only one suspected case while at Shiprock NM.
Plague: uncommon [read: never happens] to be infected by mouse poo.
more than you ever wanted to know….
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvbid/plague/
sl [stamping out disease (and misinformation) and making the world a better place, one keystroke at a time….]
ket 21
mmmmmm donuts!
“dollars to donuts, nationalization is a forgone conclusion.”
Does this mean my UYG is all but lost?? Waaaah.
sl
“dollars to donuts, nationalization is a forgone conclusion.”
When you are injecting capital and guaranteeing hundreds of billions, Citi and BAC, you are already nationalized.
Time to buy!! Gold that is.
vodka (8)-
I think when black plague has hit all the continents, we can call a bottom to the current market.
“Black plague is also carried by mice…”
Stu says:
February 12, 2009 at 10:34 am
Well I’m shooting down to AC tonight.
Have a problem.
1-800-GAMBLER
“Black plague is also carried by mice…”
Clot,
Were there billions, in the stimulus package, allocated to study the mating habits of field mice?
Have a problem?
1-800-DepecheMode
Hey guys,
I need advice on buying gold. I have never bought precious metal before.
With all the options out there what are the pros and cons of each. For example gold ETF’s seem reasonable from a trading perspective, however, I dont want the storage fees. I also dont trust the government “During an economic crisis GETF assets may be subject to a compulsory purchase by governments.[citation needed] Following Executive Order 6102 of 1933 and the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 private gold ownership was outlawed in the United States for over 40 years.”
Should I just buy a few thousand worth of gold coins? The american eagle cold coin has a 6% markup due to demand. Gold is gold though why should I pay 6% for a fancy design?
Need direction here people, please help me out.
#33
I’ve got the brains, you’ve got the looks Let’s make lots of money You’ve got the brawn, I’ve got the brains Let’s make lots of
http://www.petshopboys.co.uk/
Were there billions, in the stimulus package, allocated to study the mating habits of field mice?
Bumped to make room for 650 million dollars worth of TV boxes.
BC (32)-
Why waste all that money? They should just watch Frank for a couple of days.
Last October, I went to a securities industry conference where one of the speakers was from the IMF.
He said they have a process where they review all of a country’s financial institutions, and the problem had been that the US would never agree to it – but had agreed now. Scheduled for 2010, though he said the schedule could be accelerated. He also said something about it being a serious review – not light stuff.
So maybe they’re doing their own review in advance of the one by the IMF … or maybe the IMF is ready to come in now.
Come on ChiFi. First time I’ve gambled this year (outside of that $20 poker game at my friends last weekend) and I’m mostly playing with their money. I plan to empty my comp account this year anyhow as the perks are getting cut quick. The 9/6 JOB is getting cut all oer the place as well. Keep in mind. I’ve bought two lottery tickets in my life. An addict I am not. But I am willing to admit that in my lifetime, I am definitely down more than I am up gambling.
Stu: heed the man….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnMiwRj_C7Y
That video is horrible!
[9] kettle,
“This is why we will see shortages in the next year or so.”
This is why I am starting to stockpile things I will use now.
Stu says:
February 12, 2009 at 12:37 pm
That video is horrible!
They had to make another one, because the ADL complained that Neil Tennant was dressed as a Hasid…..
Merrill secretly moved up bonus payments: Cuomo
Merrill Lynch secretly accelerated bonus payments and gave at least $1 million to each of nearly 700 employees as the brokerage was amassing billions of dollars of losses, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo said in a letter to Rep. Barney Frank. Cuomo’s letter comes as Frank’s House of Representatives Financial Services Committee on Wednesday gets set to grill executives from eight banks that received $125 billion from the Treasury last fall. Among the chief executives answering questions on how they spent the taxpayer money will be Ken Lewis of Bank of America Corp, which acquired Merrill Lynch last month.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE51A40120090211
For you people wet behind the year, George Ball is an example of the absolute worst of wall street.
Was president of EF Hutton, came up with check kiting scheme put them under, then moved to kidder peabody, decided not to waste money on a principal trading accounting group and Joseph Jett did his z-coupon bond thing where he overpriced hard to price z-coupons to pretend there was a profit and put them out of business, on to PruBache where he came up with crazy risky limited partner ships to be sold to elderly people that blew up and put them out of businss, next up was CEO of Gruntal which he decided a single location was good enough for home office with no back-up site and wouldn’t by the World Trade center be nice!!! Put that under too. Now he is still on wall street, EF Hutton, Kidder and Pru were 3 out of 10 of the largest BDs and he put them all under, now I guess he knows what puts a firm under so maybe he is right!!
George Ball Says Bank of America, Citi `Too Big to Fail’: Video
Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) — George Ball, chairman of Sanders Morris Harris Group Inc., talks with Bloomberg’s Carol Massar about the outlook for Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc.
Ball discusses yesterday’s appearance by chief executive officers of the eight biggest U.S. banks at a congressional hearing on the use of funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program. (Source: Bloomberg)
[26] sl
Still don’t want to be breathing in that sh1t.
Q: If you took David Axelrod and adjusted his moustache would he look like Hitler?
James,
as BC would say, if you dont like the markup then take delivery of a gold future or 2. 1 gold future = 100 troy ounces in serialized bars
I want to be an economist. In what other field can you consistently be wrong or say “i dont know” and still have a job
[23] scribe,
The article is a bit alarmist to start. All large banks have “examiners in residence” who audit the bank on an ongoing basis.
Now, you wonder, if regulators were on site, why weren’t they catching this shi-t? Because (a) it wasn’t illegal and (2) if the banks and the market can’t value it, how are the regulators going to do so? Also, they may have been catching it and demanding answers from the boards, which, when they finally get there, are reassuring, and we will never see them b/c exam reports are confidential and not subject to FOIA.
BTW, the same is true of very large corporations—the IRS LMSB division has a field office in their HQs. Not very many people know that.
Stu? can you get enough?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0NuvwTuHV0
[49] kettle,
Now I know why its called the “dismal science.”
Clotpol 30
not black plague. more likely a new version of the spanish flu. one food shortages spread those little 1 celled buggers will have a field day.
what say you SL?
Nom,
enjoy
The Geopolitics of Food Scarcity
In some countries social order has already begun to break down in the face of soaring food prices and spreading hunger…..
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,606937,00.html
“They had to make another one, because the ADL complained that Neil Tennant was dressed as a Hasid…..”
That’s funny. The first thing I thought when he popped up in the hole in the floor was the same thing. Then when the $ symbol showed up on his lapel. Oh my!
SL
before you yell at me. 1 celled buggers is not exact, some are multicellular and some are just proteins within a crystalline protein shell
From Mish…
Nice!
A Telegraph headline once read “European banks may need 16.3 trillion bailout” (note the link: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/4590512/European-banks-may-need-16.3-trillion-bail-out-EC-dcoument-warns.html), but it has since been changed to European bank bail-out could push EU into crisis although the link remains the same. Let’s take a look.
Home prices plummet in NJ and you guys are talking about plague?
Huh?
Sean [59],
Holy Sheet.
ket 56…
I’m not yelling at all… Just trying to keep the science clean (and my fellow blogmates accurate) about these things…
You guys wouldn’t want me spreading bad tax, finance or real estate misinformation, now, would you?
I only know about Hanta, cuz I had to deal with thinking about it daily while in NM.
I’ll go back to cooking now…I’ve got bologna sandwiches to hand out…
sl
re: #32 BC Bob
Sadly there is money allocated in Porkulus for mice.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/feb/12/earmark-less-bill-gives-pelosis-mouse-cookie/
…behind closed doors in Congress includes $30 million for wetlands restoration that the Obama administration intends to spend in the San Francisco Bay Area to protect, among other things, the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi represents the city of San Francisco and has previously championed preserving the mouse’s habitat in the Bay Area.
“The Plague” by Camus as metaphor for Miami condo market?
grim unmod
unmod?
ChiFi-
On your way down to AC don’t bother listening to 106.3 when you get to Monmouth/Ocean County. They switched formats a few months ago. They are now top 40. Terrestrial radio is officially dead.
Interesting bit on pricing in AZ (seems pretty relevant to tri state pricing as well):
***********
We have this pricing pattern going on here in the Foothills, and it goes like this.
The homes that get listed for sale are priced a lot higher than the homes that are going under contract and selling. And we can’t seem to break the pattern. You see what’s happening is, lower price homes are selling pretty well but, very few higher priced homes are selling. And still a lot of higher priced homes keep getting listed for sale. And they’re really starting to pile up.
For example, in just the last 5 days,
23 homes were listed for sale, and they averaged $221/sf, average list price was $695,461, median list was $569,000
and the 11 homes that went under contract averaged $191/sf, average list price was $500,527, median list was $449,000
and just 1 sold, so there’s not much there to work with but, if you must know, it sold for $280,000, or a measly $159/sf.
And I realize that I’ve beat this drum to death, but still, it shows no sign of stopping, and I think one reason for that is that some people still don’t get it.
WoW-wee, here’s an example from real life.
I’ve been working with some buyers, and one of the homes we found that interested them is priced at around a million.
And after the showing, the listing agent called me to see ‘how it went’. It went good, I said, nice house, lovely lemon trees, but I’m curious, how’d you arrive at your price.
Well, in August a house up here sold for blah-blah-blah and…
August, August was, in August – that’s history book stuff, has nothing to do with now, and by the way, you had to go all the way back to August for a comp.
Well, uh,
I told her that just for the fun of it, I’d book ended her list price by $125k – so from the $800’s to over a million. And in that price range, guess what, there are 52 homes for sale. And guess how many have sold in the last 3 1/2 months. She wouldn’t guess, so I told her. 0, none, nothing has sold. That’s the market.
So please, tell me again, how did you arrive at your price.
http://thetucsonfoothills.typepad.com/
grim: I can’t get this thing to post, but I am not even getting it to accept into mod?
Kettle1 says:
February 12, 2009 at 12:44 pm
I want to be an economist. In what other field can you consistently be wrong or say “i dont know” and still have a job
Ket: ree-VENGE for Wanda!
WSJ
CAREERS FEBRUARY 10, 2009
Job Market for Economists Turns … Dismal
By JUSTIN LAHART
The dismal economy has claimed yet another victim: jobs for the economists who study it.
the rest of it won’t go
Dive, dive, dive.
Housing is still unaffordable in NNJ IMHO.
Thanks Kid, but it’s me headed down to AC and my Ipod is filled with nothing but podcasts about Depeche Mode ;)
Totally OT but cool nonetheless:
Two cops on same force discover they are dad and son. Virginia officer follows clues to his father: ‘God works in mysterious ways’
By Michael Inbar
TODAYShow.com contributor
updated 10:11 a.m. ET, Thurs., Feb. 12, 2009
Chris Walker would have searched the world over to find his biological dad. But it turns out his father was sitting right across from him.
An astounding father-son reunion, chronicled in a report by Ann Curry on TODAY Thursday, came together as the result of an unexpected confession from a mother and a bit of detective work from an inquisitive cop in Petersburg, Va.
The strange tale began to unfold when Walker, 37, a sergeant with the Petersburg Police Department, received shocking news from his mother that the man listed on his birth certificate was not his real father. She told him his biological father was a man named Clayton Hamilton, and that Walker was the result of a brief love affair she had had with Hamilton when they were teenagers in Richmond, Va.
http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/29158560/?GT1=43001
oops.. linky.
sl
#66 skeptic: Quite a few listings have come on in my town this week.
Some are more reasonably priced (asking prices), although still too high.
And others are just plain ridiculous. You would think that the realtors and or sellers had been living under a rock for the past year.
A number of the lsitings are described as all being renovated in 2006, so redone in 06 the owners cannot afford them in 09.
There was one listing that was very well priced ( 4 bed/2 bath cape)at 319K, went under contract in a week. How people can list similar or slightly better houses for 150K to 200k more is just amazingly stupid.
From GEN:
Oscient Cuts 32% of Workforce and Is Looking for Strategic Options
Oscient Pharmaceuticals is implementing a workforce reduction of approximately 32% of its 305 employees across the U.S. Additionally, Oscient has employed Broadpoint Capital to explore strategic options including the potential sale of the company.
Oscient will be left with approximately 35 employees at its offices in Waltham, MA and Skillman, NJ as well as approximately 170 field employees across the U.S. The firm reports that it has aligned its sales force into 150 territories that include physicians with potential to generate the highest volume of prescriptions. The company is also eliminating approximately 25 positions that have been vacant.
3b– after going out looking at houses last weekend, my question for each one was the same as the guy in Tucson above: how did they arrive at this price?
From what I can tell, people are still commonly taking the highest ever price for a similar house in their neighborhood and adding 10-15% on top of this.
I do not understand why realtors waste their time with these listings. In the town I was looking in there have been 15 sales TOTAL since September. Meanwhile inventory continues to build week after week.
These agents seem blind to the fact that by listing these insanely overpriced houses, they are exacerbating the real estate crash in their neighborhood.
in case you missed it……
Goldman, BofA Call Treasury on Its Capital Bluff: Jonathan Weil
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aQ1RyLNi6ujo&refer=home
#76 skeptic: These agents seem blind to the fact that by listing these insanely overpriced houses, they are exacerbating the real estate crash in their neighborhood.
Agreed.Some I am sure still have the belief that all they need is just one buyer, just one, to pay their price and all will be well.
Grim,
Shooting from the hip here but…
would a new measure of home affordability based on a set of measures such as the following be more appropriate
A*B*C where
A=(total Private Debt/GDP)
B=(Median Home price / median Household income)
C=(U6)
So A*B*C = (total Private Debt/GDP) * (Median Home price / median Household income) * (U6)
from historical trends
A safe range of A would be less then 100 ( where 100 = 100 %)
A safe range of B would be less then 4
A safe range of C would be less then 15 ( where 15 = 15%)
This would give use a scale of 0 – 6000 where historical averages would put the value values of each at
A = 60
B = 2.5
C = 10
A target guideline value would then be 1500
A system such as the example above would account for multiple national factors that ultimately have an impact on housing and the sustainably of housing prices.
This index could even be broken down into regional values like is already done for the northeast, southwest, southeast, midwest, and west.
maybe i will make that my weekend project and see what i get.
how about we call it the K Index
skeptic: this is called wishful thinking. You want a crash and you want it now. You are exhibiting the same level of denial with the sellers. You want your price enforced. Fortunately for all, there is this thing called market.
Nom,
I was indeed wondering how the banking regulators missed all of this.
“in case you missed it……’
bi,
In case you missed, the dow is 7,800, 45% off 10/07 highs. The gold/dow ratio continues to narrow and RE prices are still declining. What’s up with your 2/09 blackbox?
“Fortunately for all, there is this thing called market.”
{80],
In RE terms it’s called fantasy pricing, above market limit orders that have zero chance of getting hit. But hey, my neighbor’s house sold for this price 2 years ago. A house is only worth what a ready, willing, able, qualified buyer is prepared to pay.
Skep,
My aunt, who just turned 97, is about to move to a facility for assisted living near her son.
Her house is about to go on the market over the next few weeks. The appraisal – from one of the best and most aggressive realtors in town – was $360,000.
Meanwhile, the house next door went on the market about a month ago with an asking price of $499,900.
Both are 1950’s ranches – not updated – but having seen the exterior of the other house in real time and the photos online, my aunt’s house is considerably better.
The other house faces a two-lane highway, with not much of a front yard.
My aunt’s house is on a cul-de-sac.
My aunt’s house has a really nice breezeway they built themselves, with really beautiful paneling. The other house has a breezeway, too, but it looks bad in the photos – old, and whatever is on the floor – linoleum or carpeting – it looks bad.
How the broker came up with $499,900 – it’s a mystery to us.
Why are houses still overpriced?
Because young people just starting out have NO MEMORY of prior markets and they see a decline of 5% and think they’ve hit the jackpot.
Just as I have never see gasoline for .20/gallon, so I think $1.50/gallon is GOOD.
Hence, these starter homes set the price floor. It’s turtles all the way up from there :)
—————————
It’s a brave new world.
Remember that house in Jackson?
UC for 205K
I schitt u not.
#80
“skeptic: this is called wishful thinking. You want a crash and you want it now. You are exhibiting the same level of denial with the sellers. You want your price enforced. Fortunately for all, there is this thing called market.”
what is wishful about it? houses are sitting on the market and not selling. if they were correctly priced, they would sell. maybe you have failed to consider that the market has already crashed and most sellers simply do not realize it
[83] Another one in denial who ignores the basic concept of market. A house is only worth what ready, willing, able, qualified buyer AND SELLER AGREE TO.
maple (80)-
There is ample evidence that skep will realize his price. There is no evidence that delusional sellers will achieve theirs.
Again, I am a Realtor. I work with your “thing called market”, and markets are not clearing. If you think it’s because of some kind of buyer denial, accept that as final proof that you are the bagholder I suspect you are.
skep (86)-
We have enough trolls to feed around here.
Grim and Clot,
I think I found some “suckers” for your Strippers & Scotch Foreclosure Bus Tour.
Soufun takes buyers to view US homes
By Cao Qian | 2009-2-12 |
WHILE some domestic real estate developers and property agencies are still trying to find ways to overcome the sluggish sentiment among home buyers now, one in particular has begun to target some well-to-do Chinese as their potential clients.
Soufun, a leading real estate Internet services provider in China, yesterday said it will arrange a group of 50 potential buyers to go on a 10-day trip to the United States to view properties later this month.
“This is the first trip of its kind to an overseas market organized by Soufun, and we’ve received a quite warm response from customers,” Dai Jiangong, president of Soufun Holdings Ltd, told Shanghai Daily yesterday in a phone interview.
“We will probably arrange more such trips in the future to Australia and some European countries, if this one proves to be successful.”
According to Soufun’s plan, the group will visit five cities in the US – New York, Boston, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Las Vegas – between February 24 and March 5, and most of the houses they will be viewing are mid to high-class villas and townhouses and priced between US$300,000 and US$800,000.
Only 50 people out of more than 500 who applied for the US trip online have been picked and most of them are real estate developers, entrepreneurs as well as senior executives in multinational companies from the Yangtze River Delta region and Bohai Rim area, according to the trip organizer. Each person is expected to pay about 25,000 yuan (US$3,660) for the trip.
Buying property overseas has become popular among wealthy Chinese over the past few years.
“It is certain that more and more Chinese people will make real estate investment in foreign countries in the future,” noted Cai Weimin, an industry veteran who has previously arranged similar house-viewing trips for Taiwanese to other countries. “Houses with existing lease contracts are most preferred by Chinese investors.”
They also like to own properties in countries where their children are studying or plan to study and work.
More on my K index proposal.
that index would currently be right about 22,000 at the moment
all rough numbers:
A = 300
B = 4.8
C = 15
[86] Just because you say so that does not mean that the market has crashed. Many sellers and buyers avoid transactions as they disagree on the price. The price is set by those who agree. So look at the comps and stop telling us that what the prices SHOULD BE.
woody (87)-
You forgot to say, “QUALIFIED seller”.
This market has got some qualified buyers. Qualified sellers? Not so many.
#80 maplewoodian: Wishful thinking??
Ah, no, that is what the sellers can rightfully be accused of.
As far as a crash, well grasshopper that has already happened, its just not finished yet, simple as that.
You see we the buyers are in control now, and the sellers are going to have to accept the fact that the party is over.
We will not pay their wishful thinking prices. They had control on the way up, we the buyers on the way down.
As far as a market well you must simply be kidding. There is no market for these over priced homes, otherwise they would be selling. A market consists of buying and selling, it is as simple as that.
Sounds to me like you are a recent homebuyer, who is having difficulty accepting the fact that the party is over.
People like us scare you Well you better get used to it.
[87],
My problem? It’s becoming more difficult to locate a qualified seller. How’s that for a market concept.
sean (90)-
Maybe we can get Diageo to provide the Johnnie Black & get the girls from Jade East Body Shampoo.
#92 maplewoodian: grim, rich and others post comps here all the time,and when they do, you claim they are not valid for one reason or another.
So which comps do you want us to look at?
[88] Mysterious “RE Agent” perhaps there is ample evidence that skeptic will realize his price. NOT NOW THO.
BC (95)-
Check my #93. Great minds think alike (patting self on back…).
[97] How about the ones I’ve posted?
hey 22,000 is only 15X higher then the historical average of 1500.
I am now very curios to dig up the detailed numbers this weekend, until then……
woody (98)-
To paraphrase Tard, I’m as real as a heart attack.
‘Mysterious “RE Agent”’
I also did not see skep mention that he needed to buy a house this weekend.
At this point, the best buyers out there can sit on their hands and wait far longer than sellers can remain solvent.
87 maplewoodian, i have to disagree…who cares what the house is worth – ‘worth’ is subjective depending on who is looking at it…you may say its worth a million or even ‘priceless’ but what matters is what the asset is sells for – and for that it really is ‘only what ready willing able qualified BUYER agree to….
sorry to burst your view of economics there….
Clot [99],
I saw that after I posted. The majority of sellers are hoping they can find a bigger fool. It’s there only shot. How’s that for 2 sided market dynamics.
clot,
“Jade East Body Shampoo.”
i like the sandal wood scented soap they use.. you smell nice on the way home, easier to explain too ;)
woody-
Perhaps you can get some SRS as a hedge against the paper shellacking I suspect you’re taking on your house.
CHIFI,
thanks for the news article
“hey 22,000 is only 15X higher then the historical average of 1500.”
kettle,
What are you talking about?
Cramer gets cuffed around from a reader who doesn’t like his 2x short ETF rants:
“Who needs the increased volatility from the ability to buy a whole sector or whole composite in just one trade? Oh, yeah: Wall Street does. The creation of these things has made the Wall Street industry a boatload of cash at the expense of the individual. THAT is the reason to abolish them! Let’s get back to picking stocks based on their individual merit and growth in sales and earnings.”
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10463633/1/dear-jim-dont-blame-the-skf.html
[105] Ket,
Not sure I want to know what needs explaining when you get home.
“We have enough trolls to feed around here.”
I am not going to assume maple is a troll. I am sure his belief is pretty widespread (how else to explain the disconnect between sellers and buyers) and I am sure there are buyers out there that have unrealistic expectations.
However, he/she seems to be operating based on the assumption that there is equal bargaining power between sellers and buyers right now. There is not. There is a surplus of houses available right now for sale and a relative shortage of qualified buyers. So the adjustment of expectations will fall disproportionately on the sell side.
#100 maplewoodian: The ones you posted (if I remember correctly) show either flat or slight declines from the peak.
IMO they do not reflect the reality of where the market is now, and where it is leading too.
There is absolutley no reason to believe that there is anything on the horizon that would indicate that real estate prices in NNJ will not decline substanially or even stay flat.
How can we have all that has transpired over just last year, and not have people understand that real estate is not toast, just like the stock market and the economy.
It is hard to fathom that homeowners like yourself and others somehow still appear believe that real estate will stay flat, or only decline slightly.
Oh and I am a former homeowner. I purchased my first house at the peak of the last housing bubble, because we had to get in or be closed out forever.
We could not sell it at a price we could stomach during the earlyy 90’s recession,and finally sold it 10 years later for $2500 less than we paid for it!! even with all the significant improvements we made on it.
The recession in the 90’s which was ugly, is turning out to be no big deal compared to this one.
#92
“Just because you say so that does not mean that the market has crashed. Many sellers and buyers avoid transactions as they disagree on the price. The price is set by those who agree. So look at the comps and stop telling us that what the prices SHOULD BE.”
mw– It is not just because I say so that the market has crashed. Look at the numbers at the top of the page. Tri state SFH prices down 12-18% during 2008— the biggest down year ever recorded. What else would you call this other than a crash?
And due to the lag inherent in RE transactions, these numbers do not fully reveal what happened during the last couple of months of 2008 when the situation got even worse.
So if you are still priced at 200-2007 prices, as many sellers currently are, you are priced wrong. It is not a matter of opinion.
[111] Thanks for that. clotpoll has issues.
I am not operating based on any assumptions. The only way I compare bargaining power is by the transactions, not the perceived or imagined ones, the real ones.
There is a surplus of houses that can be measured and perhaps a surplus of buyers as I can see in this blog.
[113] 12-18% from 2008 is hardly a crash given the recent appreciation. There is no evidence that prices have gone below 2004. In fact comps here and there show that houses in prime NNJ are selling around 2004 levels.
(109) Cramer was going on last night about the evils of ETFs and shorting the market. I guess his solution is to dollar cost average a stock down to zero. I also noticed that he keeps recycling the same stock picks every 2 months or so. Whats up with that?
I have to stop watching CNBC and play my guitar more often. Because I get sucked into Kudlow and he always has some D-Bag on who says the solution to all our problems is to stablize house prices and make the prices go up. Once again, no one mentions affordability. I quess it is our God given right as Americans to be victims.
BC
see my post at 79
#111 skeptic: I do not think mw is necessarily a troll either.
I do believe that he or she has purchased in the last few years, and now has regrets. He or she is trying to reassure his or her self.
[54] Kettle,
Got an email from my sis yesterday (she’s the one with her own “nompound” in Maine), and she advises that she has an organic garden on her property that someone up there (presumably the B&B caretaker) maintains for her.
She reports that she isn’t worried about having produce. She and the “gardener” plan to triple its size this season.
Escape (116) –
“I guess his solution is to dollar cost average a stock down to zero”
– Even better, Short his picks to zero. Wachovia, anyone?
Kettle,
Check your inbox
“The only way I compare bargaining power is by the transactions, not the perceived or imagined ones, the real ones.”
transactions are down about 50% from peak levels. this is a result of the bid/ask spread being ridiculously wide. meanwhile, new houses continue to get listed as transactions continue below longterm trend. In what direction do you think market clearing prices exist right now?
“There is a surplus of houses that can be measured and perhaps a surplus of buyers as I can see in this blog.”
Actually there’s a surplus of renters as evidenced on this blog.
#116 Actually Kudlow appears to have gotten a little religion lately. I have heard him state that the housing market will correct itself if just left alone, or something to that effect.
I was shocked that he said it.
If I was a buyer I would insist all the knobs be polished including my own.
[123] That’s a good one. I should have said qualified buyers then :)
Maple,
Have you considered that the only way to get into a 06-07 priced property is to do so by utilizing irresponsible/risky financial instruments or shouldering an outsized monthly nut for which two people work like dogs for?
Whatever transactions are occurring are only happening because of the “but it’s 25% off” effect, this is similar to catching a falling knife.
This is a waste of time, shame on me for entertaining an instigator.
[122] Let’s give it some time. I don’t think you can draw such conclusions for a relatively short period of time given the tumultuous state of economy. Stimulus have been announced this week. Give it a little time before calling it a crash.
here is a concrete example of what is happening. In the town I am looking in, 12 new houses came on the market last week. In this same period, there were 3 accepted offers. There were also 10 price cuts. If I am a seller who has had his house on the market for a few months, I would take each of these date points into account, not simply the 3 closed sales.
skep (111)-
Ironically, the only way a seller does have leverage in this environment is to price his property to meet the market.
There are so few properly-priced homes on the market that every time one comes on priced right, you get bidding wars that take the “winner” up and over the asking.
Clotpoll says:
February 12, 2009 at 8:09 am
You wanna see Latifah naked? She looks like an NFL strong safety.
don’t you mean DT? She’s pushing three bills, last i checked.
not sure how her gayness would work in an NFL locker room, though …
Nom
Re Mail
Thanks!!!!
re: #128 Maplewoodian
I have put together this simple explanation, for the homeowners out there who are wondering why we are so gloomy on housing market. When you have time print it out and take it to your tax accountant or your investment advisor for clarification.
There is a common misconception out there that the banks can step in and start lending again to restart the housing market.
The banks are lending, they are lending plenty of money right now. The issue with money and lending right now is the securitized markets.
The securitized markets that enabled the banks to create these types of no credit/low credit loans and then sell them off to pension funds and other investors is dead. Deader than Elvis.
Entire trillion-dollar markets for securitized loans have frozen or collapsed in the past 18 months, including parts of the corporate debt market known as commercial paper, private mortgages, auto loans, student loans and credit cards. The result is now Banks are often the only lenders still able to satisfy some critical credit needs but not nearly enough.
Problem is the Banks cannot lend in great enough amounts to make up for the difference, hense the FED’s programs to fill some of the gap.
To further illustrate the dilemma we face with credit in general here are some numbers to ponder. Before last fall’s financial crisis, banks provided only $8 trillion of the roughly $25 trillion in loans outstanding in the United States, while traditional bond markets provided another $7 trillion. The largest share of the borrowed funds about $10 trillion came from the securitized loan markets.
How is the government the lender of last resort and the banks going to fill that giant hole in credit and do it no less on deflating assets?
Our new Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wants to restart those securitized markets, problem is the investors are not coming back for more punishment. There is no way the foreign investors are coming back anytime soon and the pension funds all know that these investments are toxic and not AAA rated.
Debt Deflation is now a one way down hill street, it is a race to the bottom, we are going to end up in one place, the bottom of that hill whether we like it or not.
Debt Deflation = Asset Price Deflation
This means your primary asset your home is going to deflate in value no matter what, and there is nothing you can do about it.
Zieba unfortunately 5-6 times income is a norm in prime areas including Europe (say Germany). There won’t be a crash due to fundamentals.
Also things will be clearer after summer.
sean (90)-
Maybe we can get Diageo to provide the Johnnie Black & get the girls from Jade East Body Shampoo.
Can you pick this up at the Jade East Motel on 46 in Teterboro?
do i hear 7600 on the DOW?
Stu, next time you cut a deal with Bi, make it so that he makes like his profits and disappears
#128
“Let’s give it some time. I don’t think you can draw such conclusions for a relatively short period of time given the tumultuous state of economy. Stimulus have been announced this week. Give it a little time before calling it a crash.”
Honestly, I think you can take your pick of time periods. Let’s look back a month, 3 months, 6 months, a year, 2 yrs. The situation has gotten worse and worse and shows no signs of getting better.
Stimulus? What exactly has the gov’t done that has slowed down the RE market decline?
The people who are actually selling right now are those who see the trend for what it is and accept taking a small loss now rather than a larger loss in the future. Everyone else who is on the market right now is choosing hope over reason.
woody (114)-
Which “imagined” transactions do you think I use when I write up price opinions on the 2-3 short sales I consider on a weekly basis? Let me assure you that ever-increasingly, there are NO recent transactions of ANY KIND to be found when doing comps. And no, these are not “ghetto outliers”, so don’t bother with that tired retort.
If you really think we have ready, able and qualified buyers enough to suck up the current 11-14 months of inventory overhang, please explain to all of us where the hell you think they are and what it might take to refocus their attention upon actually making offers on houses.
woody (114)-
I do have issues. Issues with assclowns like you.
“clotpoll has issues.”
ruggles says:
February 12, 2009 at 9:43 am
Does anyone here use sirius online? the car unit is working fine but online, I can only get the howard stern channels, everything else is dark. could be a glitch just for me or maybe a bigger issue…?
i listen online. next month, they’re starting to charge 2.99 to listen a month. i’ll pay – $36 for a year is like a f’ing tank of gas. big stern fan here.
“Stimulus have been announced this week.”
[128],
Stimulus? We have divorced all the other possibilities; RE prices never decline, joined at the hip with WS/NY, foreign buyers[currrency play], the highly educated/high income, etc.. Now you foresee stimulus as an accelerant? LMAO. Robbing the productive to hire illegals to mix cement/dig ditches? A RE market saver. WOW, that’s a first.
“We have tried spending money, We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. I say after eight years of this administration, we have just as much unemployment as when we started”
“And an enormous debt to boot”
Henry Morgenthau Jr., Treasury Secretary to then-President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, May, 1939
3b (118)-
Then that person should get a dog, a shrink, a prescription or listen to cool jazz. Just don’t come here, shit on a plate, and present it to us as considered opinion.
grim says:
February 12, 2009 at 10:01 am
Read some commentary saying that it was modeled after the $7.5k interest free loan, meaning it would need to be repaid.
Not sure, everything still very fuzzy.
if it has to be repaid, F it, i’ll pass.
who wants another loan?
in case stu didnot get out his srs 2 days ago, today is the last exit before paying heavy toll.
woody (128)-
You can get your own personal stimulus by sticking a fork into a wall socket. Give it a shot, and get back to us, mkay?
“Stimulus have been announced this week. Give it a little time before calling it a crash.”
pater (131)-
I now have the vision of a shower-time showdown between Latifah and Ray Lewis scorched into my brain.
Thanks.
watch house of cards on cnbc tonight and in the morning we can talk, actually I am taping it as I am watching ugly betty at 8.
yikes,
if dow closes below 7700 its down we go….
maplewoodian:
5-6 times income is a norm in prime areas including Europe (say Germany). There won’t be a crash due to fundamentals.
Also things will be clearer after summer.
1. The euro area average index of real housing prices has risen almost as much as that of the US and is now (as that of the US) about 40% above its 30-year average. This is similar to the overvaluation of Japanese real estate at the height of the Japanese bubble, which was then followed by over a decade of continuous decline.
2. Over the last 30 years, the euro area index for real housing prices has tended to follow that of the US quite closely. The lag is now much shorter than in the 1970s or 1980s. The euro area market is thus likely to turn soon as well.
chart:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_lsF4HSdqo04/SZR-kPbqqmI/AAAAAAAAA74/A_rUVhLRR-A/s1600-h/OECD.PNG
#128/134 Maplewoodian: You talk about the tumulotous state of the economy, well would that not include real estate price declines.
It is a crash, perhaps not a swift crash, but a crash none the less. And the krap hit the fan here later than it did in other parts of the country.
Stimulus? Please define how that is going to help real estate particulary real estate in NNJ. Why will things become clearer in the summer?
As far as prime areas take a look at what is going on with prime real estate prices in London,prices are crashing.
I would believe it is or will be the same in Germany as the recession there deepens.
And as far as prime, for our area, please define it? Prime as being close to NYC? Who cares in this environment, if NYC is shedding thousands of high paying jobs a month.
As far as Maplewood that was its draw close for Wall streeters with the mid-town direct. Many of those maplwoodian wall streeters are sitting at home right now.
(123) Count me as a very happy surplus renter. My rent only increased by $25.00 a month this year. However the single family homes next to my development are down 10%- 15%. I have enough saved for a down payment and 6 months mortgage payments. However I will happily rent another year or two. Without the burden of mortgage on a declining asset, I was able to purchase two additional guitars which have gone up in price thanks to Fender and Gibson believing price increases are a smart thing to do in a recession. (Thanks to ebay guitars are better than stocks). And if I lose my job I have more than enough in an emergency fund thanks to renting.
yikes (136)-
I did suggest the WWF “loser leaves town” scenario.
Too bad bi didn’t take us up on it.
John (147)-
Is that your nickname for your wife?
“I am watching ugly betty at 8”
Re: on the $500 Billion Money Market withdrawl events from September some say Rep Kanjorski got his facts wrong.
There may not have been $500 billion outflow from any asset class in the space of a couple of hours or even weeks, and the Fed never shut down or froze any money-market accounts.
If anything it was Krammer and his naked short selling buddies planting stories in the NY Post.
http://www.portfolio.com/views/blogs/market-movers/2009/02/11/kanjorski-and-the-money-market-funds-the-facts
Clotpoll remind me not to employ you as an RE agent, in case you are. Wait, you are definitely one given your depth.
#142 clot:Just don’t come here, shit on a plate, and present it to us as considered opinion.
Agreed. He/she comes makes a statement, and than offers nothing to back it up. I of course try to answer with one of my long winded responses, but at very least I attemot to be reasoned and rational.
I have asked MW to give at least one intellighet reason as to why real estate prices will not are not crashing.
All we get is stimulus is announced, things will be clearer in the summer.
Translation: I bought a house in the last few years, and hopefully somehow something will happen that will make its value go up again.
phoenix = dangerous
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/latinamerica/la-na-drug-kidnappings12-2009feb12,0,544773.story
will this spread elsewhere in the US in 2009?
#150 escqpe:However I will happily rent another year or two. Without the burden of mortgage on a declining asset.
You are MW’s biggest nightmare.
3b (155)-
Ever notice how the bull predictions here sound suspiciously like the stuff that comes out of fortune cookies?
“…stimulus is announced, things will be clearer in the summer.”
Or perhaps we’ve been conditioned by bi’s Rain Man-like bleatings.
JBJB says:
February 12, 2009 at 10:21 am
Grim [148]
Found this, looks like the 8K will be only for first time buyers, and does not have to be repaid.
http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2009/02/heres_who_will_benefit_from_st.html
First-time home-buyers could qualify for an $8,000 tax credit.
The credit is slightly larger than the $7,500 credit in existing law, but it is substantially less than a proposal in the Senate bill that would have boosted the credit to $15,000 and broadened the eligibility.
better than nothing, ill take it. does it have to be used this year? seems like it.
woody (154)-
No big. I find it hard to work with the underwater and delusional, anyway.
‘Henry Morgenthau Jr., Treasury Secretary to then-President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, May, 1939’
Wow, and he’s still working as District Attorney for Manhattan, what a career :)
[3b] OK let’s define crash. How much below average? When? Let’s put some constraints and then find the relevant data.
As things stand now, there is no crash.
Yikes 156,
this may be anecdotal, but i spoke to a coworker who’s parents expatriated to mexico in 2000.
According to his parents the violence and instability is only in highly urban areas. They claim that in most towns and even in wealthy expat areas there is very little crime and no manifestations of the instability being reported.
that being said i see border areas getting very ugly
#158 clot: With MW, it sounds like he is parrotting something he heard somewhere, with bi one just does not know what is going on in that beautiful mind.
elevator down…
8000 — bumbling government policies, failed bubble supports,
7700 — inflated house ware, toiletries, toilet tanks,
7000 — depression glass, apple carts, munitions (sorry fresh out of them.)
6000 — riot gear, pitchforks, torches (all on sale!!) Please pay in ingots, no credit cards accepted.
sl
[160] Wrong answer. You are not an RE agent.
3b (164)-
Strangely, I prefer bi.
Would anyone here who has the energy to put fingers to keys confirm for assclown that I’m a Realtor?
I watch all cool shows. Last night, Lost and Life on Mars, tonight, UB, 30 Rock and Office. Its a recession man just doing my part with cheap entertainment.
Clotpoll says:
February 12, 2009 at 3:00 pm
John (147)-
Is that your nickname for your wife?
“I am watching ugly betty at 8″
#162 Releveant data, well one could start with the information posted by grim regarding the decline in sales and prices. Looks crashy to me.
How about you start with one rational, reasonable response as to why real estate in our area is going to be flat, or maybe endure some small declines?
Clotpol, I have insulted realtors long enough to know you are one.
Maplewoodian,
large moves in RE can take a decade. Re crashes do not happen overnight like the stockmarket.
are we in the midst of a slow motion crash. look at the following and tell me what you think
http://maldream.blogspot.com/2008/12/bergen-county-case-shiller-data.html
if that doesnt do it for you look at the posts on home ownership rates and U6 unemployment. (the main page maldream.blogspot.com)
If that doesnt back up a RE crash then nothing will do so for you.
hey maple…. he IS one… and as of the past 3 yrs he is the ONLY RE I would ever trust..
Spare him your bullshit. Truly.
sl
John,
GG is the best show. Tasty jail bait rules!
maple
Clot is indeed a realtor…..
#167 clot: Yep me too. At least he gives reasons (although not what one would consider reasoned and rational), like earlier in the week when he said Mr. Geithner did not perform well during his press conference, because he does not have a beard like Mr. Bergabe.
…and YEAH. I am a potty mouth… So, f.ucking get over it.
sl
From urban digs via CurbedManhattan inventory hits 10k.
Woody –
Clot owns a real estate franchise and has now become sort of a spec1alist in short sales.
BTW, believe me, you don’t want to mess with him.
[162]
There is a crash in underlying market fundamentals. However, RE prices do not crash in a 1-2 year period. Go back to the archives, late 2005. Changes in RE prices are akin to a slow moving tanker. It’s like Chinese water tortue. Prices will decline over a 5-7 year period, peak/trough. Yes, RE prices do crash, you will witness 40-50% off peak. One monkey wrench. The more the govt gets involved, the longer the duration, probably 2019-2020 before we reach lows, with govt manipulation.
Enjoy the ride.
#166 MW He is a realtor. Oh and umm so is grim.
and in an exceptionally, horrifically, particularly UGLY mood.
sl
Have we discussed the meltdown in Dubai yet?
Clot,
I just googled you.
an active member of the Private Eye Writers of America.
I had no idea! is that why you like johns comments so much? is he your next main character?
Is this your work (Wipeout!)?????
#180 BC Bob: Which is all the more reason that any one who plans to buy this year should factor that into their bids, oh that and mortgage cramdowns.
Potential buyers should bid aggressively all the sellers can do is say no.
Maplewoodian – You heard it here first, you should have a dozen or so new listings in about three weeks all people that worked in Finance. The next round of layoffs in Finance is going to be staggering.
Come back here on March 1st, and tell us about some of the panicked sellers who marched into your office.
vic (179)-
Thanks. I like to think that I’m not hard…but the facts are.
Privledged can also pop a pretty good pup tent in your pants.
Clotpoll says:
February 12, 2009 at 3:17 pm
John,
GG is the best show. Tasty jail bait rules!
vodka (184)-
That’s somebody else. The only writing I do is around here.
Tosh,
Dubai is toast, extra crispy. They have no core industry to fund them except BIG Re and tax breaks for foreign corps. those 2 are drying up. how much does a bucket of sand go for lately????
#186 sean: I suspected he/she might be a realtor too.
Come back here on March 1st, and tell us about some of the panicked sellers who marched into your office.
Hmm. I agree that we’re getting in to another round of financial layoffs but I don’t think we’ll see the panciked selling in this area begin until later in the year.
Most will run through their savings before trying to sell the house in the hopes that the NYC area financial employement situation will turn around. It won’t.
OK I am new here. Don’t know who is who.
As for the crash: we are obviously in a downturn. I don’t deny it. I believe that in many parts of the country we reached bottom (FL and CA). Maybe not so in NJ. Is going back to 2000 prices a crash? I don’t think so. If it happens though it will take a long time as some people have argued. Also houses will depreciate because of absolute number but rather because of inflation.
Higher income areas won’t be hit as hard I believe. Wall street in particular is still alive and can certainly support NNJ real estate.
#178
“Manhattan inventory hits 10k”
a mere 2 1/4 yrs of inventory at current sales pace. is this a crash?
I’ll have to check that one, John.
But the girls on GG are all over 18 (this helps me feel better about my lecherous impulses) and have waistlines that are the circumference of a Twizzler.
Somebody put #193 in a time capsule.
“Potential buyers should bid aggressively all the sellers can do is say no.”
3b,
Buyers are never forced to buy.
Sellers? Not forced to sell if they are flush, have tons of equity, no need to downsize, don’t have to relocate for a new job, not worrried about getting into a school district, not divorcing, no estate sales, safe in their job, etc.. Where is this seller?
I think Woody may have hit the trifecta:
1. Bagholder
2. Realtor
3. Underwater
Clot,
a new dead pool for you.
Will construction on the Burj Dubai be completed????
#190 – I had a friend who was stationed in Dubai for a while around `02-03.
He said the sheer scale of the construction going on was indescribable.
One of the first hints I had that the RE bubble was world wide were those Dubai World islands.
[194] Oh come on there is always an increase of inventory come spring.
“Wall street in particular is still alive and can certainly support NNJ real estate.”
[193]
Did you miss the memo. WS is in a depression. 60% of financing/loans, shadow banking, are gone. WS is on its hands and knees, can’t support itself. How does it support NNJ RE.
Wall street in particular is still alive and can certainly support NNJ real estate.
hahahahahahah
try watching something besides fox and cncbc
#193
“Wall street in particular is still alive and can certainly support NNJ real estate.”
MW– You say something reasonable and then end with this. Maybe you are not being serious.
I wonder if CNBC will be playing themselves in House Of Cards.
maple 193
How about introducing yourself… like the rest of us did (albeit, a while ago)
I’ll start and maybe the others will introduce themselves, too.
I’m sl, me and hubby been looking for a house for 3 yrs…. just when the bubble about peaked… GRIM and CLOT saved our asses by helping us to recognize that buying would be a mistake right now.
I’m an ER doc. so occasionally you will hear science, medical crap from me. Take it or leave it.
sl
“OK I am new here. Don’t know who is who.”
That’s what Moody’s/S&P said while they slapped AAA on horse s*it.
maplewoodian says:
February 12, 2009 at 2:20 pm
There is a surplus of houses that can be measured and perhaps a surplus of buyers as I can see in this blog.
you-said-wood: I ain’t a buyer…..
vodka (199)-
Deadpool:
1. Burj
2. Abe Vigoda
3. Dick Cheney
Clotpoll says:
February 12, 2009 at 2:45 pm
woody (114)- I do have issues. Issues with assclowns like you.
clot: assclowns in such a 2005 phrase….use asshat…it will bring you to at least 2007-8
All this talk of plague makes me itchy.
2 Mice Carrying Plague Disappear From New Jersey Lab
Saturday, February 07, 2009
TRENTON, N.J. — The frozen remains of two mice injected with the organism that causes plague have not been accounted for seven weeks after being discovered missing at a University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey facility in Newark, the university said Friday.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,489595,00.html
Maple
if a 40-50% drop in the market isnt a crash then what is your definition?
NJMLS data for Bergen county:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_lsF4HSdqo04/SRSQcKbMITI/AAAAAAAAAwE/2h6vAktwYss/s400/untitled.bmp
we are already well below the bottom of the negative growth rate of the 90’s bubble
#193 Maplewoodian:
Wall street in particular is still alive and can certainly support NNJ real estate.
Dude!!!! Wall street in particular is still alive and can support NNJ real estate.
Sorry, but you are a moron
I and others on this site are/have been wall streeters for years, the industry right now is dying,and the mega bucks is gone for many, forever.
It is a whole new world down here.
You are indeed a realtor.
Clot:
Any thoughts on this short sale? Going to look at it this weekend. Sold in 2006 i think for $395k. Was listed for sale for $349k before this.
http://www.century21.com/property/index.jsp?ref_code=C21TruliaDL&id=34980749&WT.trulia_state=NJ&WT.mc_id=Organic
veto 211
plague is transmitted by the bite of an infected flea. Said flea would be biting on a LIVE mouse…not a dead one..
I do have some Plague Insurance to sell you…. uh.. interested?
sl
“Is going back to 2000 prices a crash? I don’t think so.”
A 50% decline. Sounds like, looks like, feels like a crash to me. What is your definition? A slight/temporary adjustment.
By the way, adjust your bands, back to 1997.
maplewoodian says:
February 12, 2009 at 3:03 pm
Clotpoll remind me not to employ you as an RE agent, in case you are. Wait, you are definitely one given your depth.
you-said-wood: He’s probably the most impressive poster here. The only thing is that he dyes his chest hair so he can compete with grim.
re: #192 – Tosh I disagree those that are left on Wall St are now more than fully aware of the score,those folks know that securitizaion is not coming back and they cannot wait unemployed for the next bubble to form.
Next round of layoffs will be cutting really deep there will be panic selling in RealEstate.
FYI -I am talking a vacation that week last week of March if I timed it right. We have already had a few jumpers around here and I am getting off of the grid for a week.
#202 BC Bob: Hey what do we know, we only work on the street.
That realtor from Maplewood would of course be far better informed.
Jeez talk about clueless and uninformed.
*told over the tune of B-52’s Song For A Future Generation*
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDh3NegeNvQ&feature=related
Hi,
I’m Barb. Libra, married, mother of two to be, life long New Jersian. I’m a small business owner, illustrator, and real estate investor. Been looking to get out of our lovely historic craftsman slapped down in a ghetto for over 6 years now but NO LUCK. Haven’t bought anything since 1999 and refuse to buy your cat piss/old lady linoleum clad archie bunker house for 600K in galmmy train town. Thanks!
3b – if anything a little dose of reality from this board will hopefully scare the bejebbus out of them enough to realize it is time to cover their own ass.
Least we can do for any poor soul who dares wanders in here.
Further proof that Beelzebub is amongst us, hastening the end of days:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Obama administration is hammering out a program to subsidize mortgage payments for troubled homeowners who have gone through a standardized re-appraisal and affordability test, sources familiar with the plan said on Thursday.
The program would be a major break from existing aid programs, which are triggered once homeowners fall into arrears.
Under the plan being contemplated, mortgage companies would use a uniform eligibility test even before a borrower becomes delinquent, sources said.
The administration hopes the mortgage industry will soon agree to a set of standards that will allow it to move quickly to modify many home loans.
Sources said government-controlled housing finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would play a supporting role in the government’s new plan, but said they are not expected to expand their securitization of loans.
In an interview, James Lockhart, the regulator that oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said the mortgage finance industry was eager to have a standardized mortgage modification standard.
“I’ve talked to all the major servicers — both the big bank ones and the big independent ones — and they are all ready to go, they’re chomping at the bit,” Lockhart, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said. “The other thing they’re asking for standardization.”
Under the plan being mulled, homeowners would have to make a case of hardship to qualify for new loan terms.
Housing policymakers weighed but have for now shelved one plan that would have seen the government stand behind low-cost mortgages of between 4 and 4.5 percent, sources said.
Lockhart said that policymakers are eager to prevent a large drop in home values from their current, deflated levels.
“Just as we had a large overshooting to the upside. Is there any way to prevent going much further to the downside? That will cause tremendous harm to the U.S. economy, to the financial system and it’s not necessary,” he said.
#216 BC Bob:Is going back to 2000 prices a crash? I don’t think so.”
BC Why would that be a crash, it was 300k when the seller sold it in 2000, peaked at 600k when the buyer purchased it in 06, only to go back to 300K for the 06 buyer,that that is not a loss. Consider it rather an adjustment.
Assuming clot and stu are liquidating all their SRS, it dropped 8 pts in last 15 minutes.
Yikes, you asked a few days ago about the Bucks RE market. Thought I’d just throw out an anecdote for you to ponder. It seems that Bucks realtors/sellers are still in la la land too. I’ve seen quite a few listings come on the market at peak prices. No adjustment down at all.
In fact, my house was just appraised (due to refi) and came in where I thought it would given recent market drop – about 50k below peak price. Nevertheless, a neighbor around the corner just listed this week at 9k over peak price. Huh? I have to believe it’s the real estate team that’s got the listing that is misleading the seller. People are really gnorant.
*ignorant* even
I was just as stupid 3 yrs ago…learning the truth about this stuff was not easy…
…I still get the “who’s got two heads” looks when I try to inform/educate others about what’s going on.
Tried to convince my BIL that C was a bad investment. He didn’t listen … bought at 9 or 10 (as a gamble) and now where’s C at?
CLOT warned me about it… I warned my BIL…he still kept it…… some people want to live in denial.
sl
SL Says” flea would be biting on a LIVE mouse…not a dead one..
So does that mean the flea jumps off the dead mouse looking for something living to chomp on? If so, then the article doesnt make me itchy anymore, but it does make me hungry…
Barbara says:
February 12, 2009 at 3:45 pm
*told over the tune of B-52’s Song For A Future Generation*
Hi. I’m chicago. I love depeche mode and buying on the dips. Let’s meet and have a baby…NOW
Yeah, WS is pretty much dead, unless the exotic securitization or large leverage comes back into vogue, the street will be less lucrative and have fewer jobs. It will indeed be a crash, look 30% drop in the stock market is considered a crash. Fundamentally the market responds more quickly, as liquidity is a professed goal. Housing and real estate in general, is illiquid no one is making the market. Right now sales volume has collapsed to the level where it would be very hard to determine the true market value of any property. I can say this, land prices in commercial re are down 50-60%, even in good areas because the capital markets don’t exist for large scale construction projects. The way I see it is is only a matter of time, large scale unemployment will destroy NJ real estate values.
Alap (214)-
Price might be OK…but how can a short sale be approved here?
You can’t even open a short sale file with a lender until you submit a complete, entire package…that includes a signed contract of sale.
Just came back from a haircut. I heard on the radio an ad for a Hyundai auto dealership in Toms River offering “Buy One Car, Get Another for $1″….whatever that means….
veto 228
These mice were dead in the lab, being inventoried for autoclaving then disposal…
They were dead well before they went missing…
You stand a better chance of catching HIV than plague in Newark.
sl
bi [224],
Monotonous. No?
hey Maple… where are you??
sl
“Did you miss the memo. WS is in a depression. 60% of financing/loans, shadow banking, are gone. WS is on its hands and knees, can’t support itself. How does it support NNJ RE.”
Things are bad but myself and other friends in WS (and have many for that matter) still have their jobs and got their bonuses. And I am not sure it will get worse before it gets better. The scenarios among the gloomiest of you is pure speculation.
#221 True. But I have to tell you, I am absolutely dumbfounded that maplewoodian made the statement about wall st employment that he or she made.
The level of stupidity out there is scary.
We have MW’s wall st statement, coupled with prices going back to 2000 would not be a crash based on where they peaked.
And we have frank it ain’t a recession until all activity ceases.
BC, more like a mosquito….high pitched and buzzing….oh, and annoying.
sl
#218 – Sean – I disagree those that are left on Wall St are now more than fully aware of the score
Hmm, the traders/analysts are but most of those employed on Wall St. don’t work in those capacities. Most are back-office and support staff who have no idea of what is going on; think of all the IT people, Change Mgmt., OGC, etc. They’re all payed relatively well, but clueless in terms of financial acuity.
…hardly a crash?
Like my father always says about jumping out of a building, it’s not the fall that kills you, its the sudden stop.
…and now a word from our sponsor….
2005 Cornell Entrepreneur of the Year and Chi-Fi hall of fame asshat…..the diminutive Bobby Boy and his floatsam…
WSJ
REAL ESTATE FEBRUARY 12, 2009
For Toll, Bet On Big Apple Turns Sour
By MICHAEL CORKERY
Home builder Toll Brothers Inc. reported more bad housing news on Wednesday, including signs that its bet on the once resilient New York City real-estate market is producing some bad apples.
With mortgage credit still tight for high-end homes and the region’s financial industry shedding jobs, Toll has been slashing prices for some of its flashy Brooklyn condos by as much as 25% and battling to prevent buyers from walking away from contracts.
“We still have a whole lot of people working on Wall Street and in the banking industry who probably won’t be there in the next year,” Chief Executive Robert Toll said during a conference call with analysts on Wednesday. “So over the next few years, I would think New York is going to be soft.”
Toll’s New York blues were among many dour notes the company struck in recapping preliminary results for its quarter ended Jan. 31.
The Horsham, Pa., company said home-building revenue slumped 51% to $409.3 million and write downs could total as high as $200 million.
Toll’s sales in its latest quarter were grim. Across the country, orders fell 59% from a year ago to just 266 homes, a larger decline than some analysts expected. They plummeted 70% in the North, followed by 63% in the Mid-Atlantic and 56% in the South.
Toll also acknowledged that a much-touted 3.99% mortgage interest-rate promotion had been used by only two dozen buyers since the builder started offering the rate last month. Mr. Toll said another promotion offering buyers additional rooms and appliances at big discounts was more successful than the cut-rate mortgage.
New York condos had been a rare bright spot for the primarily suburban builder. But now some of its New York developments have fallen victim to the financial-market turmoil. The company began sales at a 128 unit tower in Manhattan in October, as the stock market swooned and investment firms, such as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., imploded.
At a development in the Williamsburg section of Brooklyn, Toll recently cut the list price on a three-bedroom condo to $894,990 from $1.2 million, a 25% cut. Toll says it is dropping prices on some units to move inventory at its Northside Piers building, which is 60% occupied. Toll has started selling in an adjacent tower, which has a greater proportion of smaller, less expensive units.
Toll looked smart when it unveiled its first Manhattan condo tower in late 2006, hoping to attract a buyer that Mr. Toll referred to as “hedge fund Johnny,” a young, financial services worker. At the time, the New York City housing market continued to roar, even as formerly hot suburban markets such as Florida and California were collapsing.
But in the fourth quarter, home-sales contracts in Manhattan declined more than 50% from a year ago and supply increased 39%, according to Miller Samuel, a New York real estate research and appraisal firm.
“Anyone would have expected some pullback in New York, but no one would expect it to be this dramatic,” says Daniel Oppenheim, a housing analyst at Credit Suisse. “At this time, any exposure to the city is too much.”
[235] “hey Maple… where are you??”
Why do you need me? What’s the point of arguing with someone who has no intelligent/rational arguments to offer? (I mean me)
may I repeat that quote…..
“We still have a whole lot of people working on Wall Street and in the banking industry who probably won’t be there in the next year,” Chief Executive Robert Toll said during a conference call with analysts on Wednesday. “So over the next few years, I would think New York is going to be soft.”
Looks like the O-team has pulled off their first annoucement timed to reverse a late-afternoon selloff.
Not too many bullets left in that gun.
tosh – even the Mexican janitors know, the writing is on the wall, most are playing duck and cover right now.
Paraphrasing Dr. Dre and the brilliant Ben Folds: “Comps ain’t sh*t but hoes and tricks”
I don’t trust a comp without a full history. Too many people were still buying to flip in 2006, doing gut renovations and then asking for double.
If someone pays the same price that was paid in 2006 for a fully gut renovated house, it appears that prices are holding up. Throwing out prices when I can’t tell if the comp was renovated from the studs doesn’t convince me at all that prices are stable.
Clot (231) –
Not really sure how it is approved. I just came across this earlier this week. Currently looking at condos/townhouses in that area, and found a single-family a 1/4 mile away so figured I’d give it a look.
I called the realtor and she said an offer had been submitted but not accepted yet.
I am not too familiar with the short sale process, and from what i’ve read/heard, its better to wait til it becomes an REO to save on the hassle.
maple, firms have record breaking losses and are generally all involved in government recapitalization programs. The gov is not going to continue paying out massive salaries and bonuses when they nationalize the banks. There has been massive leverage and now deleveraging is occurring, people have slowed spending to a crawl and we are stuck in basically a feedback loop where the reduction in demand is causing a reduction in production which is further causing even less demand. If your friends still have jobs that is great but not necessarily true for everyone, and may not remain true.
234, bob, i am just trying to figure it why my 15% disappear in 15 minutes. there must be some BSD sellers over there.
If a house was 300K in 1999 under a normal appreciation pattern it would be worth around 400K in 2009, now if it bubbled up very quickly to 600K by spring 2005 and settle back into 400K that is now a loss, just the growth rate riverting to the mean. Just a little bit of froth blown off the morning coffee.
“The scenarios among the gloomiest of you is pure speculation”
Scratching my head.
http://articles.latimes.com/2008/oct/24/business/fi-streetjobs24
Clot,
Exactly what happened. They’re at it again. Alright though I am patient.
[244] Yes blame it all on Obama. Monday were selling because of o. Today they are buying because of o.
#236 mw Now you claim you are on WS, and you still make this stupdid statement!!!!
So you got your bonus, and you have kept your job so that means prices are not going to go down?
If true that you and your many friends are on Wall St, and got bonus money this year and still have youe jobs, are any of your friends rushing out now to buy over priced houses in Maplewood or anywhere else for that matter?
Or how about the non “Street” crowd who don’ get bonus money of which I know many, but took pay cuts, lost their 401k match, not to mention many who have lost their jobs, are they rushing out to buy over priced houses in Maplewood or elsewhere for that matter?
So again, one reasonable, rational, coherent response as to why real estate prices will not continue to dramatically decline.
As for Wall St layoffs more to come.
“234, bob, i am just trying to figure it why my 15% disappear in 15 minutes.”
Interpretation? Anyone?
Clot (209)
Do not under estimate the longevity of Mr. Vigoda. That man has costed me on various prior office dead pools.
maple 242
I wasn’t kidding about introducing yourself…
this is really a unique group of really intelligent people…. we don’t mean to batter folks but we are realists.
Why don’t you just start over? who are you and how did you find this blog and what are you looking for?
sl
Alap-
Short sales only become a hassle when handled by incompetent agents.
#250 john: Not for the guy who bought it at 600k.
How about those working for WS firms who took paycuts, because many of us have.
[248] OK maybe things get worse. Yesterday I was offered a raise I did not ask and they hired a new analyst. Seems things are stabilizing.
hey you paid “pump & dump” bloggers, its almost 5 o’clock. Time to start wrapping things up for the day.
btw: if you don’t think i know who you are… ha ha ha..
SAS
woody (261)-
Are you the cafeteria barista on the other shift at Frank’s hedge fund?
Clot (258) –
I have had my share of incompetent agents. I can’t seem to find a good one who will give it to me straight and present an offer that I think is fair based on my calculations just because of what it is compared to the asking price.
Know of any good ones in the middlesex/piscataway area?
Both my sister and I are looking to buy in the next 6 months.
bi:
Haven’t sold a single share of SRS since last November. Watch and learn.
I don’t mean no respect to other Wstreeters but let’s see how this is working out before calling it a crash and hide in the so-called compound of yours.
#236 maplewoodian:The scenarios among the gloomiest of you is pure speculation.
As opposed to your what???? Rational, reasonable response based on some type of logic??
maple
Hello,
I am a high school janitor with a penchant for charts. i read the textbooks left lying around by lazy students in between mopping the hallways and cleaning up the cafeteria :)
On a serious note, what would you define as a RE crash?
The typical family owed $67,300 in debts in 2007, up from $60,700 in 2004. The big increase came from debt on second homes. The typical family that had a mortgage owed $107,000 on their primary residence. Those with credit card balances owed $3,000. The median installment debt, chiefly auto loans, was $13,000.
Obama eyes home loan subsidies in rescue plan: sources
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Obama-eyes-home-loan-rb-14343095.html
[sighs heavily] methinks me smelleth a troll at the bridge.
sl
Stu (264)-
What planet-shaking announcement can the O-team come with tomorrow to reverse the waves of selling?
sr dropped to 61 from 70 in 15 minutes when i was typing.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SRS#chart1:symbol=srs;range=1d;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
>BC Bob says:
February 12, 2009 at 4:02 pm
“234, bob, i am just trying to figure it why my 15% disappear in 15 minutes.”
Interpretation? Anyone
renty (269)-
“From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.”
Karl Marx
Hii,
My name is Stu. I’ve been clean for almost 3 months now. I’m horrible with grammar, but good with investing. I found this blog about two years too late.
{still looking] I work in finance (sorry can’t say more). I own and want to sell and buy (upsize). Would like to time market but not sure how much I can contribute here as most seem to fixated in gloom speculation.
I don’t know but the bi-weekly 401K goes in tommorrow so down is better than up for most people this Friday.
#265 MW: We already see how this is working out.
Take a look at marketwatch.com, nice article regarding the dramatic loss in Americans net worth. I cannot post the link, as I am on the road.
This is the worst environment on the “street” since the early 1970’s there are still a few of those dinosaurs around, trying finding one and talk to him.
That is where we are.
274… Stu… <— owes me a keyboard… this one’s soaking in coffee at the moment.
sl
“and they hired a new analyst.”
Hallelujah, an analyst was hired. Distressed securities, metals, grains or currencies?
Sounds like Pret. Citi was hiring 50 for a hedge fund, the street was spared.
#275 MW: Please provide a reasonable response as to why we should not be gloomly?
I think maplewoodian is actually another persona of Frank. Nice vague I work in finance, honestly you must be either the janitor at a Wamu branch or a GS exec given your secretiveness and apparent cluelessness.
271#, O’s announcement is irrelevent. the most import factor will be Congress may revise TARP contracts so that JPM, BAC, GS, WFC, MS, SS and BNY can give back TARP money quickly. Some of them (SS for example) don’t need the money at first place. After that, these banks can do their normal business such as ligitimate marketing and paying shareholders dividends.
John @ 276
>>I don’t know but the bi-weekly 401K
>> goes in tommorrow so down is better
>> than up for most people this Friday.
People are still allocating their 401ks into equity? Who? Ben Stein?
“hey you paid “pump & dump” bloggers”
SAS,
Who’s pumping/dumping? More important, who’s scooping?
#275 I work in finance (sorry can’t say more
No you don’t, but than again, maybe you do.
“hey you paid “pump & dump” bloggers”
– How do I get on this gravy train?
Maple,
if you know anything about wine, beer, strollers, guns, plague or gossip girls there will be something you can contribute…..
Like I said, they’ll protect S&P 800 with all their might. Once those resistance levels get breached they know the programmed selling kicks in big time. Eventually the day is going to come in the not too distant future when the coreographed PPT announcement is ignored.
[254] 3b
There’s surely a correction in salaries and expectations. But for streeters and non-streters alike NNJ was overpriced to begin with.
RE: “Many of those maplwoodian wall streeters are sitting at home right now.”
With gleaming hardwood floors, just steps to South Orange and Irvington, and $5K PITI.
#245 – Sean – Hmm, maynb the NYC crowd has finally gotten the point. The CT hedgies are still clueless.
Maple 275…
then you have nothing to worry about.
If you can sell, you might sell a bit low… but you will more likely buy at a lower price, too.
If you bought [i might need help here] between 03? and 07? well… you might be shit out of luck… overpaid, can’t get the return you want.
If you bought much earlier, then you stand to make some or at least break even (also provided you haven’t sucked a huge chunk of equity out of your house in the form of 2nd mortgage, HELOC.)
All you guys who probably know better, feel free to jump in and correct me….
besides… really? I’m just the cafeteria gal…and I’ve got bologna sandwiches to infect with Staph for tomorrows lunch… ;)
sl
Jcer
you must be either the janitor at a Wamu branch or a GS exec given your secretiveness and apparent cluelessness.
HEY, i find that comment very offensive!!!!
#291 – maynb That should be maybe…
#269
“Obama eyes home loan subsidies”
public sentiment turning on this guy in 3, 2, 1…
Which reminds me…. before my PTP runs out. I need advice on a nice powerful but not too heavy pistol. Advice? anyone? Bueller?
sl
if you know anything about wine, beer, strollers, guns, plague or gossip girls there will be something you can contribute…..
Don’t forget gold and solar panels
if you know anything about wine, beer, strollers, guns, plague or gossip girls there will be something you can contribute…..
Don’t forget gold and solar panels
.. and cars and photography.
“The economy is so bad, Carnival Cruises asked Somali pirates for a bailout”
SL,
Is it bad that i played with S aureus all the time in labs while experimenting with bioreactors??? our safety precatuions mostly consisted of washing your hand and not drinking the bacterial soup even if dared to.
#275
“I own and want to sell and buy (upsize). Would like to time market but not sure how much I can contribute here as most seem to fixated in gloom speculation.”
serious suggestion:
(1)sell your place ASAP at whatever the market will bear
(2) sign a 1 to 2 yr lease for a similar place
(3) park any profit from (1) in cash
(4) at end of lease, start looking to move up
You know what they say about analysts:
In a bear market, you don’t want em. In a bull market, you don’t need em.
“hey you paid “pump & dump” bloggers”
“- How do I get on this gravy train?”
vic,
Ditto. How much does it pay?
SAS?
FYI, a buddy of mine just followed #301 except he took a loss at step 1. He was happy to get what he could and he is now renting, sitting on a bunch of money from an inheritance
SL
SIG P250 (.40 S&W) ????
SL @ 296
Glock 19, 9mm, polymer frame, light.
Don’t point a loaded weapon at anything you don’t intend to kill.
Ket, 305
The sig looks so much nicer! it’s 31 oz
The SW is a lot lighter though – 21 oz
I suppose I should get out and try ’em first…
sl
#289 MW: Actually at the end of the 1990’s in my Bergen co blue ribbon train town, prices were quite affordable vs resident’s median income.
And as far as over priced it is one thing to be over priced by 50, 75, or even 100K.
To be over priced by 150, 200, 300k was insanity,and of course unsustainable.
Judd Gregg Withdraws as Commerce Nominee
WASHINGTON — Republican Sen. Judd Gregg of New Hampshire abruptly withdrew his nomination as commerce secretary Thursday, citing “irresolvable conflicts” with President Barack Obama’s handling of the economic stimulus and 2010 census.
“We are functioning from a different set of views on many critical items of policy,” Sen. Gregg said in a statement released by his Senate office.
More at: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123447333424979131.html
Senecam 306 nice too… also 21 oz and has magazine for 15 and upwards optional…
hmmm
sl
Gotta stick to the plan. Most people I know who were properly diversified are still doing the same precentage equities. The people who were 100% equities bailed. I bought equities this week for first time in a year!!! Way too many bonds and CDs. Portfolio out of wack.
Seneca says:
February 12, 2009 at 4:16 pm
John @ 276
>>I don’t know but the bi-weekly 401K
>> goes in tommorrow so down is better
>> than up for most people this Friday.
People are still allocating their 401ks into equity? Who? Ben Stein?
AK47 is the tool don’t make me act like a MotherF%%ing Fool.
“How do I get on this gravy train?”
Ditto. How much does it pay?”
i don’t know how much it pays.
but, they’re here till about 5.
SAS
SL
definitely shoot before you buy….
find what works best for you….
oh and check your e-mail
Clot takes post of the day honors with submission # 142.
“I bought equities this week for first time in a year!!!”
John,
That’s funny. I thought you were buying the ultimate low, Oct.
The $300 jeans fans/bashers here will love this inquiry I came across from a reporter at a leading national news wire:
“I’m writing an article about the status of the premium denim market in the recession. I’m looking to talk with retail analysts who are familiar with the high-end market, as well as some consumers who are very loyal to premium denim. I am looking to discuss buying patterns for these sorts of consumers right now. Are they trading down to lower-price point jeans? Are they buying as many pairs of jeans? On the consumer side, I’d love to speak with someone who considers him or herself a really big premium denim fiend and while he/she might be cutting back in the recession, s/he’s still certainly buying denim and doesn’t intend to trade down because of loyalty to fashion, fit, etc. On the analyst side, I’m looking to discuss above consumer trends and future market growth potential for premium denim. Because we cater toward analysts and write about public companies, I am *not* looking to speak with small-business owners in this field.”
zieba 315
hmmm this one’s a close second or tie for first!
Clotpoll says:
February 12, 2009 at 2:50 pm
woody (128)-
You can get your own personal stimulus by sticking a fork into a wall socket. Give it a shot, and get back to us, mkay?
“Stimulus have been announced this week. Give it a little time before calling it a crash.”
sl
RE: “Somebody put #193 in a time capsule.”
Think he/she is already in one.
Actually, from October through mid December I was buying Munis at the ultimate low. From late December to January to last week I was buying corporate bonds, as of the begining of this week I was 98% bonds in my taxable accounts so I bought some stock and some crazy junk bonds this week. Maybe when gold his 400 I will buy some too. Actually, I am rotating among investment classes and buying the cheaper ones. Commodities or International stocks are next and then real estate. I buy and hold so I am just re-diversifying.
BC Bob says:
February 12, 2009 at 4:48 pm
“I bought equities this week for first time in a year!!!”
John,
That’s funny. I thought you were buying the ultimate low, Oct.
BC Bob btw the way how much gold do you own in dollars, is it ten bucks or ten million?
Maplewoodian, thoughts on this 60 Minutes piece?
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4668112n
[310] sl,
careful of mags that can be blocked to hold only 15 rounds. If the mag can be unblocked, NJ considers it a hi cap mag.
RE: “Any thoughts on this short sale?”
Looks like a garage with an extension. $350K for a garage?
“maplewoodian says:
February 12, 2009 at 2:24 pm
[113] 12-18% from 2008 is hardly a crash given the recent appreciation. ”
What recent appreciation? In the price of crack you smoke?
John [321],
Why do you assume that I hold gold in US dollars? Don’t forget the miners, that’s in US dollars.
here is what I think: a lot of this bailout/stimulus stuff is just too esoteric for the average American to understand. they don’t understand what MBS is; “stimulus” is a really vague concept and the numbers the gov’t is tossing around are so huge that they are basically meaningless to most people.
However, I do think that the average American would understand a plan to pay their neighbor’s mortgage very easily and not like it at all. I think out of everything proposed so far, this is the one that is likely to get peoples’ attention really fast.
Skep,
It will be neighbor vs neighbor, a frigging civil war:)
[301] “(1)sell your place ASAP at whatever the market will bear
(2) sign a 1 to 2 yr lease for a similar place
(3) park any profit from (1) in cash
(4) at end of lease, start looking to move up”
These are moves that a family can’t make. Can you imagine the effect on the little ones? Dramatic changes happen due to foreclosures and layoffs. It’s not a game.
The little ones will be fine. I worried about how my 3 yr old would take it (we need to move soon). I discussed it with him, we went to look at houses, he loved it, he wanted to know which room would be his. And he wanted to look at more houses. We made him part of the process and he knows we’re looking for him AND Mom & Dad. I’m pretty sure it would be more traumatic for him if we got foreclosed on rather than having to live in a rental for 2 years.
Skeptic, I think that is great advice. I am looking to buy because I have to move out of my rental soon, but if we don’t find a good deal we will rent somewhere else.
Plenty of people with kids rent. You can rent in the same neighborhood you live in now and then buy a house a year or two later in the same neighborhood as well. Kids can keep all their same friends (if they are old enough to care) and you can set up a little trust fund for them with the money you save (I’m sure this would greatly outweigh the indignity of renting in their minds)
106#, what a hedge!
Clotpoll says:
February 12, 2009 at 2:06 pm
woody-
Perhaps you can get some SRS as a hedge against the paper shellacking I suspect you’re taking on your house.
#301
Funny you say that. I’ve actually been thinking about taking this exact course of action. The rents in the area would be pretty close to my mortgage so I think it will be a wash. Admittedly, in the back of my mind, I’m thinking about missing out on the tax benefits of owning for 2 years. Need a way to reduce my taxes. At the same time, I know the likelihood of my property further depreciating during that time frame is pretty good, so I risk selling my place at a lower price. It’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation.
Having said that, I believe it puts me in the best position possible. If I lose my job, I wouldn’t be burdened with worrying about how to pay my mortgage. I can easily move out the area if it ultimately comes to that. Additionally, I will positioned to take advantage of the depressed home prices in a year or two. If you have cash and good credit in these times, you are money.
#329
Parking your house sale profits in cash is a recipe for disaster. More so if you are sitting on cash for 2 years. Remember, the indebited benefit from hyperinflation while the middle class savers are wiped out.
Closing on 250,000 4.625 30 year fixed 0 pts, 3k closing on Tuesday. Lenders were extremely thorough.
Not a bad deal.
What happened, did Gregg just wake up and realize that O wants to socialize the economy? Has he been paying attention. Kind of an odd situation.
maplewoodian says:
February 12, 2009 at 5:24 pm
[301] “(1)sell your place ASAP at whatever the market will bear
(2) sign a 1 to 2 yr lease for a similar place
(3) park any profit from (1) in cash
(4) at end of lease, start looking to move up”
These are moves that a family can’t make. Can you imagine the effect on the little ones? Dramatic changes happen due to foreclosures and layoffs. It’s not a game.
you-said-wood: I’m doing it. Moving at the end of the month with a 2 year old and a pregger…..my son’s reaction? “dah-PESS mode time!”
Awesome quote from Pete Rose:
Rose also doubted Rodriguez’s claim that he didn’t know what he was taking.
“I just wonder if a guy making $250 million is going to go into the commode at the ballpark and put a blindfold on and say, ‘Go ahead hit me in the ass, with whatever you want to hit me in the ass with,'” Rose said.
“Parking your house sale profits in cash is a recipe for disaster.”
[336]
In today’s environment, quite the contrary, the spread has come in dramatically. Falling asset prices, 1-3% interest in another vehicle, the recipe for success.
‘Go ahead hit me in the ass, with whatever you want to hit me in the ass with,’” Rose said.
Classic.
alap (265)-
Send me your e-mail thru Grim. I’ll try to refer you.
woody (277)-
Sorry to say, but you seem a bit fixated on the kind of speculation one might engage in if breathing deeply from an ether-soaked rag.
re #341 Chicago –
Ever been to the Dominican Republic in the offseason? I Have…… Our boy A-ROD always comes back a little more pumped up.
http://dr1.com/articles/steroids.shtml
[345] clot: I am not sure why you are so happy but anyway. Obama seems determined to support housing prices and protect owners from a crash. A slow decline to the 2000 prices might be fair for everyone. There are encouraging signs such a deficit, sales, etc Of course inflation might kick in but cash in the bank won’t save us then.
woody (347)-
Then why hold cash? Work the Armageddon trade. I think several of us could probably bang out a paper on it at this point.
As far as this “fair for everyone” comment: this makes me think there’s no way you work in finance. Mr. Market doesn’t care about what’s fair. “Fair” is for sugared-up five year olds playing whack-a-mole at some bacteria-infested Chuck E Cheese.
BTW, small children don’t understand the difference between paying rent and paying a mortgage.
“I am not sure why you are so happy but anyway.”
I’m happy the way the Joker was happy when he let Harvey Dent put the gun to his head in his hospital room.
Sean: ARoid has man-breasts…..
Clot – I like Jack’s portrayal better, at least he wasn’t hopped up on 5 different meds when they banged the chalk.
WSJ
By PETER EAVIS
Bank-stock investors have every reason to stress out over the Treasury’s stress test.
As part of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s Financial Stability Plan, many banks will be subject to tests aimed at gauging whether they have sufficient capital to support lending and absorb losses under a severe economic outlook.
Existing bank regulators, including the Treasury’s own Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, already test banks’ strength. So the new assessments will have an added rigor, or the announcement was pure theater.
If the administration really does have the stomach to get tough with the banks, they could be forced to recognize credit losses more quickly. That would leave balance-sheet holes to be filled with earnings-depleting reserve increases or dilutive equity injections.
There is an obvious need for a tough new test, since the banking industry went into the economic downturn largely unprepared.
Incredibly, as the credit crunch has deepened, banks’ loan-loss reserves have so far fallen as a percentage of nonperforming loans.
In the third quarter of last year, the latest figures, banks had 85 cents of reserve for every dollar of noncurrent loans, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The agency added: “This is the 10th consecutive quarter that the industry’s coverage ratio has fallen; it is now at its lowest level since the first quarter of 1993.”
One reason banks can get away with this: Management has significant leeway to set its reserves. While banking regulations stress the need to be conservative in setting a reserve, they also state that the task “involves a high degree of management judgment.”
Now, the government stress test could challenge that judgment. The results mightn’t be pretty. But investors can get ahead of the stress tests by looking for banks that have reserve ratios that look too low for the sorts of loans they hold.
For instance, each quarter last year, BB&T’s reserve dropped as a percentage of noncurrent loans, to end 2008 at 111%.
Large parts of BB&T’s loan book likely won’t show high losses, but it does have concentrations of loans that could turn toxic. Take BB&T’s $7.98 billion of loans to residential-housing developers. Loss rates on this portfolio could be very high, given the markets they are concentrated in and the plunge in the value of land used as collateral.
What’s more, that category of loan dwarfs BB&T’s current loan-loss reserve of $1.61 billion. The bank responds: “Obviously, we believe our reserves are adequate.”
Banks’ securities portfolios could also create stress. These are typically marked to market, but government tests are still going to see if valuations and accounting are reasonable.
Wells Fargo Thursday demonstrated how securities portfolios can surprise. The bank reported fourth-quarter earnings over two weeks ago. Now, it says, because of subsequent credit events it will take additional losses of $328 million in the fourth quarter on preferred securities. Nail-biting times.
“BTW, small children don’t understand the difference between paying rent and paying a mortgage.”
They will see the difference when they can’t play with their friends–now a block away and they will see it again when we have to move once more, provided we find a house in the same neighborhood or school district for that matter.
They will see the difference when they can’t play with their friends–now a block away and they will see it again when we have to move once more, provided we find a house in the same neighborhood or school district for that matter.
I’ve worked with dozens of clients who have moved to better school districts.
For most, trading up to a better school district far outweighed the loss of friends.
On the flip side, I’ve worked with families that have leased in the school district that they wanted their kids to be in, in prep for a later home purchase (whether that was to save up additional funds or simply to wait out the price declines). Basically, the point here is to skip the “starter home” and just set down roots where you want to be.
What might work for you might not work for someone else. But I’ve got a hard time believing these kinds of transitions are oh so very traumatic on kids.
Maplewoodian, your thoughts on this 60 Minutes piece?
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4668112n
Starting at 8:00PM and rebroadcast again at Midnight on CNBC:
THE HOUSE OF CARDS
CNBC presents the definitive report on the defining story of our time. CNBC correspondent David Faber investigates the origins of the global economic crisis, with first person accounts from home buyers, mortgage brokers, investment bankers and investors – most of whom let greed blind them, leading to the greatest financial collapse since the Great Depression.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28892719
who’d i piss off?
i get home, power out. cooked a damn good burger in the dark though.
but then when the lights come on, i realize there was this catalog in the mail?!
http://www.mackenzie-childs.com
Pattern-induced-seizures.com
more ancedotal evidence or good karma that I share one of my other fav. bloggers on another fav. blog?
Top 10: Songs for the Unemployed – brought to you by Pop Tarts Suck Toasted
354 grim
But I’ve got a hard time believing these kinds of transitions are oh so very traumatic on kids.
Exactly. I say, meh, maybe the first move impacts a kid, but down the block? pffft. As a brat & going to various civy schools depending where we were, it wasn’t until maybe the 8th move that I had any clout over any other kid.
#329 – skeptic
However, I do think that the average American would understand a plan to pay their neighbor’s mortgage very easily and not like it at all.
exactly. & there is also a ton of pant up demand at my office for those on a career path here in jersey or stateside but much to the dismay of those who’ve opted to pursue other paths at other places or in different locals for whatever varying reasons.
RE: Mackenzie-childs
Pleasant Rowland (who sold American Girl Dolls to Mattel for a gazzilion $s) bought the company out of bankruptcy for pennies on the dollar.
Too bad because Victoria and Richard Mackenzie- Childs are very funky,creative, cool people. Just horrible business people.
We were in negotiations to buy their house on Lake Cayuga. We were going to run it as a B&B. Selling price was dirt cheap. In the end we got a hold of ourselves and realized we couldn’t stand the long Ithaca winters.
Their daughter took the idea and now it is a B&B. Google Mackenzie- Childs Home Again for a tour of the house- Very unique. A nice weekend trip is to the Finger Lake wineries, Ithaca area waterfalls and a stay at the Mackenzie- childs B&B.
dude, Stu!
http://www.google.org/powermeter/howitworks.html
u can’t stop us now. LaRocia and I are awake and lookin for cheap real estate in jersey…anyone want to fill me in on some bargain prices? I think its time to buy and end this recession.
kevin is my name by the way
i want an old house…maybe somethin with some spirit. Something that has a nice open floor plan…..VERY ILLUMINATED inside.
neo,
No problem. Try Newark, Irvington, Elizabeth. Lots of cheap RE there.
btw, folks, regardless of where you are… return to the mean is the intrinsic value of securities. cost average all you want.
you either got credit or you ain’t.
it’s leverage bitches.
thanks sybarite I don’t KNOW CRAP about Jersey real estate I just see it as a gfreat buy right now. 60,000 median drop in 1 year??????
rentier / thrift
push me / pull you
china / usa
two sides / every trade
zen beatches
i dont worry bout credit…ithinkithink u think too much
#353 –
“They will see the difference when they can’t play with their friends–now a block away and they will see it again when we have to move once more, provided we find a house in the same neighborhood or school district for that matter.”
you’ve got to be kidding! kids aren’t that fragile. you’re going to base major financial decisions on little suzie down the street?
seriously, kids make new friends all the time – even when they never move.
too much number crunching just breathe…go smell the roses and enjoy ure kids if you have any////lifes too short to be a SLAVE to payments. stop worrying so much i think the recession is going to ease up bigtime
even if it doesn’t we need to just love our families and holkd on tight. i feel it easing tho
moving too much though has shown kids end up doing worse adapting fully and often puts strains on relationships….i dont want to move to jersey i think i just might start investin in these deals
loooky looky
sybrite & neo, two pros off nj.com boards, they’ll have mooser off south bound brook joining soon.
it’s more LCD than frank or bi put together.
ithink
I don’t frequent the nj.com boards. Must be someone else using my same handle.
“they’ll have mooser off south bound brook joining soon.”
I don’t even know what that means.
sorry man, schizo-board poster/lurker shiraz syndrome & sitting in the dark too long tonight.
& i was s’posed to be watchin krugman but my wife’s company’s lawyer said no for whatever reason & i’m posting here… lonely. *sniffle*
don’t even ask how for whatever reason you’d pass up krugman. i’m pissed as is & it’s my company that provides the benefits for us so I’ve gotta just shut up i ‘spose.
some you blokes will pay anything or think a “good school” is a great sell.
hark, you bad wrong.
Public schools are govt brainwasing camps.
Thats like that one time i was on the probation for some white collar crime (long story there, i would release a name so the dumb Feds made up a story & kangroo court convicted).
In any case, for my probation, I tutored mexican children (many illegals babys), i taught math, english, basic science, but most of all I enoucouraged them to take life by the horns, and conquer the world like I did.
and you know what?
when it came time for those kids to take the standard testsm they outscored all the rich white bread towns, big time.
I was so proud of myself cause I really felt I played a role in their success. I took the results and wanted them to be seen by superintendants from other schools districts.
and you know what those superintendents did?
They falsifed the data & reports.
The whole NJ states school system falsifed data.
In there words, not mine “we can’t have poor wetback kids scoring better than the top schools in the state & in the country for that matter”
btw:
I have the original documents & I never forget a names.
check the wikileaks.
SAS
I think the next poster will be Heywood Jablomey…
yeah man, those mexican kids was on my list as to some of my fondest memories.
Along with the time we broke orders, and I told the high officials at the Pentagon to goto hell, and we rescued that orphnage.
but don’t get me wrong, i ain’t always Mr. Nice
SAS
chifi 379
yeah.. or Unabomber….or D.B Cooper.
– I really need to drink more….
sl
“Obama seems determined to support housing prices and protect owners from a crash.”
Maple,
You work on WS? I certainly hope you don’t lose your job. We need more like you, please goose the markets.
Again, this market, underlying fundamentals, has crashed. Prices crash over a multi year period. Drip, Drip, Drip. Hoy Sheet, before you know it, you have a flood.
You have perspective, working on the street. Name me the last time that any govt altered, not delayed, a business cycle?
Are you really Richard, sniffing the butts of your WS friends?
after 10, no one is gonna see this but…
GOT FXP?
front page of MSNBC? Does it get anymore mainstream?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29164020/
“One Man’s Struggle for a Job in China”
“… it all started in the US… the Americans messed up and we just need to cope with it”
Roving bands of jobless migrants
“Many carry only enough money to last about a week, raising fears of a surge in crime by roving groups of jobless migrants lingering in the cities. There also are fears of instability in the countryside if restless unemployed workers return home.”
you wanna talk about a pump & dump:
“Seven years of wealth gains gone
After years of strong growth, typical nest egg now smaller than in 2001”
http://tinyurl.com/cqyrg2
ask yourself:
who pumped?
where did the profits go?
who is maken money on the dump?
SAS
a micro perspective, which will be seen nationwide
“Minnesota hospitals in bad shape, and things could get worse”
http://tinyurl.com/abpftq
-in the last six months hospitals in the state have laid off more than 1,500 employees
“pump and dump” involves artificially inflating the price of a stock or other security through promotion, in order to sell at the inflated price. This practice is illegal under securities law, yet it is particularly common.
158:Clog
“Ever notice how the bull predictions here sound suspiciously like the stuff that comes out of fortune cookies?
‘“…stimulus is announced, things will be clearer in the summer.”’
“Or perhaps we’ve been conditioned by bi’s Rain Man-like bleatings.”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Entre the very thing you’ve been looking for… the “Friedman Unit”.
It’s a well known issue in teh toobs:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedman_(unit)
“Coined by blogger Atrios (Duncan Black) on May 21, 2006.
A Friedman is a unit of time [which is] equal to six months in[to] the future. The Huffington Post cited it as the “Best New Phrase” of 2006.
The term is in reference to a May 16, 2006 article by Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting (FAIR) detailing journalist Thomas Friedman’s repeated use of “the next six months” as the period in which, according to Friedman, “we’re going to find out…whether a decent outcome is possible” in the Iraq War. As documented by FAIR, Friedman had been making such six-month predictions for a period of two and a half years, on at least fourteen different occasions, starting with a column in the November 30, 2003 edition of The New York Times, in which he stated: “The next six months in Iraq—which will determine the prospects for democracy-building there—are the most important six months in U.S. foreign policy in a long, long time.”
The term has been used in general to describe any pronouncement of a critical period for the U.S. occupation of Iraq. Such pronouncements have been made by numerous politicians and military officials involved in the war.”
383:
Check.
BTW I picked up newspaper at lunchtime…don’t remember the name but the front page splash was a story on Xanadu.
They are 60-70% leased and don’t know whether open in August or wait until 100% is rented. I read something about a big ferris wheel that’s being made piece meal in Italy and flown in. Also something about Gondolas are being made in and shipped from Switzerland, for the snow globe maybe?
I’m surprised they have it 60% leased, I thought i was closer to a third.
Someone posted an article a while back about how the whole thing sits on a toxic superfund dump…which the inspectors deemed is safe and requires proper venting in lieu of cleanup….
Man! I wish I had one of those 799K townhouses across the toxic river overlooking Xanadu.
What was Pret’s prediction for 2008 NJ RE again?
haven’t read the entire thread, but dubai is in trouble
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/12/world/middleeast/12dubai.html?_r=2&em
WHAT?!?!?
“If I can’t pay it off, I was told I could end up in debtors’ prison.”
DEBTORS PRISON!
I love it!
Maple, I think you’re inmate number 00000000001.
Need to update this blog now, specifically with respect to the comments – everyone has their say, which is nice, but who is really gonna read like 400 comments! A ranking system of comments is necessary, where people can rank a comment up or down (digg style).
sell chifi
buy low
naw j/k
chicago celebration.
bffs?
#393
firsts!
This is where people die. I feel sorry for the Boomers. Dont worry about you nest egg you wont live long enough to use it.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/02/11/MN3315S47O.DTL
my bet is that Gregg has a tax problem.
my other bet is that it was the fertility doctor’s sperm that was used for the octuplets
re schools: there have been a MILLION studies. what school a kid goes to (as long as it’s safe) is totally irrelevant. parental resources and/or expectations are everything. which of course means that poor kids are usually screwed (for poor kids, an excellent school might make a difference and in any case often the only hope).
CNBC’s “House of Cards” that aired Thursday night was an absolute home run.
They nailed the entire meltdown, from top to bottom.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28892719
It’s available on DVD, too.
After watching this, the last thing you’ll be worried about is buying a house.
Hopefully the nation will get past this in one piece, which looks like a 50/50 probability at best.