From Bloomberg:
Manhattan Apartment Sellers Cut Prices Most in 5 Years in 2008
Manhattan apartment sellers cut prices by the most in five years last year and unsold inventory rose to the highest since 1999 as the economy retreated.
The average listing discount rose to 4.1 percent, the highest since 2003, as buyers negotiated for reductions off the asking price. The number of condominiums and co-ops for sale jumped 41 percent last year to 9,081 even as the median price reached a record $995,000, appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate said today.
New York City is bracing for a drop in property values after three of the five largest investment banks collapsed. In the Hamptons, on the eastern end of Long Island, prices are already falling. Banks and securities firms have cut more than 180,000 jobs in the past year, according to Bloomberg data, as the recession entered its second year and the global credit crisis forced writedowns and mortgage-related losses of $1.18 trillion.
“There clearly was long-running irrational exuberance out here in real estate,” said Diane Saatchi, senior vice president for broker Corcoran Group Inc. in East Hampton. “It’s gone full circle from people who would pay any price because they had to have the house, to people who pick a price and take any house at that price as long as they think it’s discounted.”
The median price in the Hamptons, New York’s summer playground for the rich and famous, fell almost 13 percent last year to $850,000, the first decline since 2000. Discounts on Hamptons homes rose to 11.1 percent in 2008, according to Miller Samuel-Prudential data.
…
Wall Street firms are expected to lose $47.2 billion in 2008 and further shortfalls are expected in 2009, Mayor Michael Bloomberg said last week. Budget officials assume the city will lose 294,000 jobs from mid-2008 through 2010, including 46,000 in financial industries. The mayor is founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP.The firings mirror the national recession that has driven unemployment in January to the highest since 1992 and pushed home prices down the most since the Great Depression, The securities industry accounted for 51 percent of the growth in wages in Manhattan’s private sector from 2003 to 2007, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
“Prices have to drop,” Dottie Herman, chief executive officer of Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate, said in an interview. “They have to, have to, have to–and they have.”
In Manhattan, the number of sales declined 23 percent last year from 2007, Miller Samuel and Prudential said. Falling sales and rising inventory preceded lower home prices nationwide. The increase in inventory in Manhattan was largely driven by a slowdown in transactions in the second half, said Jonathan Miller president of Miller Samuel.
…
The reported available inventory tally does not include new developments where units have yet to go on sale, Miller said.“That is definitely an undercount,” he said. ‘There’s a lot of shadow inventory in the background.”
The trend is likely to continue, said Damon Liss, an interior designer who is now trying to sell a 3-bedroom cottage in East Hampton with a swimming pool for more than $1 million.
“There’s a big disconnect between buyers and sellers,” Liss said. “Buyers want 50 percent discounts and sellers don’t want to reduce the price at all. That’s why transactions are down. Both buyers and sellers are being equally unrealistic.”
From the NY Post:
HSBC CLOSES LENDING UNITS; 6,100 CUT
Getting a loan just got a lot tougher.
British bank HSBC, often referred to as the nation’s second-largest provider of US consumer loans, announced yesterday that it’s shuttering two units dedicated to consumer lending.
The closure of the two units – HFC and Beneficial – will result in 6,100 job losses and the closing of 800 branches that provide mortgage refinancing and personal loans, among other forms of debt financing.
Beneficial has three branches in the New York area, including one in Brooklyn and another in Sunnyside, Queens, according to the firm’s Web site. HFC also has three branches in the region, including one in Bayside, Queens.
HSBC’s bank branches, which are scattered throughout Manhattan and the boroughs, won’t be affected. HSBC will continue to underwrite residential mortgages through the bank branches, said a spokeswoman for the company.
From Bloomberg:
American Express, Chase Cut Card Limits, Lowering Credit Scores
Wayne Brown has a dilemma. If he reduces his credit-card balance, American Express Co. will cut his credit limit to the amount of the new balance, he said. If he doesn’t make a big payment, his interest rate may skyrocket.
The credit limits on Brown’s cards have been lowered, which has raised his debt relative to his available credit. This so- called utilization rate is a key factor in determining credit scores. Brown, a 58-year-old construction company owner in San Diego, has seen his credit score drop to 650 from 760 over the past 13 months.
“Interest rates on all of my cards are going up now and my minimum payments are almost doubling because it looks like I’ve maxed out my cards,” said Brown, who uses credit cards to fund his home-building company. “It’s a Catch-22.”
About 45 percent of U.S. banks reduced credit limits for new or existing credit-card customers in the fourth quarter of 2008, according to a Federal Reserve January survey of senior loan officers. Financial institutions may slash $2 trillion in credit- card lines in the next 18 months, Meredith Whitney, a former Oppenheimer & Co. analyst, wrote in a Nov. 30 report.
“You’re no longer immune if you have good credit,” said Curtis Arnold, the founder of CardRatings.com, a Web site that reviews credit cards. “The issuers hold the cards, literally.”
Madoff requesting to keep his penthouse
and $62 million. What a joke!
Jail would be to good. Put him out in
the cold, let him live under a bridge!
From the Morning Call:
Report predicts Valley businesses will continue to cut back jobs, spending
The Lehigh Valley is in a ”full-fledged recession,” and all indicators point to things getting worse before they get better, according to the Greater Lehigh Valley Economic Report released Monday.
The 32-page report by Kamran Afshar Associates in Bethlehem predicts more people in the Lehigh Valley will be out of work as companies cut costs due to waning demand and housing prices will continue to fall.
”Lehigh Valley’s economy is in a full-fledged recession,” the report states. ”Local businesses have significantly cut back on their purchases and hiring in the last six months and are planning to further reduce future plans for purchasing and hiring for the next six months.”
…
What local economist Kamran Afshar is predicting:
Unemployment rate: Will exceed 10 percent before economy improves. It was 7.1 percent in December, the latest data available.
Business spending: Will drop 4.9 percent in next six months. Last year, businesses planned to increase spending by 1.7 percent
Housing: Average price of a home could fall as low as $170,000, a level not seen since 2004. In 2008, the average was $200,000.
Hello, NYC-area Realtors? This is Jesus.
Come to me.
“Hello, NYC-area Realtors? This is Jesus.
Come to me”
wait until they do their taxes, then they will seek you while on bended knee.
SAS
as for manhattan, there are still alot of projects being finished (so called “lux apts”), that when complete will add many more apts to the already growing inventory list.
SAS
I started scanning the listings in Bucks County recently since it would save a hefty sum in property taxes. Seems the sellers there didn’t get the memo about the market. Most still asking 2006 prices plus premium.
2…wow. Screwing the folks who are playing the game straight. Way to go! All of the branding and advertising in the world cannot replace a good old fashioned screwing!
Both buyers and sellers are being equally unrealistic.”
Yeah, except very few people NEED to buy a house in the Hamptons. When are the sellers going to realize that the buyers are holding all the cards?
Prices still have a ways to fall in the Philly suburbs. Nothing is selling and when something does finally sell, it’s still really high.
my friend works at one of the big banks & had a 300k equity line in reserves for his home improvements… he just got a letter stating it’s now 180k. just a note, his mortgage is low and his credit/income/assets high.
how much $$$ did HSBC get from the bailouts so far?
My husband and I saw a bunch of homes this weekend. We talked to several of the realtors and all but one told us this is the worst market Chatham has ever seen. They related stories of so many people losing jobs and said that 7 out of 10 people who purchased in the last 4 years are under water. One realtor said that she knows of 3 couples who are all working with their banks to try and sell the homes for approximately what they owe to avoid foreclosure/short sales. They are not doing well. Another told us of a house flipper who is 600K under water with true market value versus their listing price. The only “pumper” was the “friend” of this forum Sue Adler. Sue says things are great in Chatham and all the train line towns. She lies that she has so many couples looking to buy and that she is selling 5 or 6 hours a month all by herself. That lady has honesty issues.
Here’s one example in Bucks.
Sales history:
Current Asking: $384,900
Sold February 8, 2002 $258,000
Sold October 19, 1999 $143,000
http://www.trulia.com/property/1067886000-77-Cloverlee-Ln-Newtown-PA-18940
Harvard Accepts Higher Debt Costs as Bankers Profit (Update1)
March 3 (Bloomberg) — Harvard’s interest costs are set to increase as much as $550 million over three decades because the U.S.’s wealthiest and oldest university took advice from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley.
Earlier, those same Wall Street banks sold Harvard — then led by Lawrence Summers, now an Obama administration adviser — derivatives that soured. When that worsened a cash squeeze, they recommended that the AAA rated school pay as much as 1.41 percentage points more than yields on identically rated corporate debt for a $1.5 billion Dec. 5 bond sale. Five days later, they helped Harvard borrow $1 billion more at up to 5.80 percent — to repay floating-rate debt that effectively cost it 3.4 percent.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a1CK7RmhOeSM&refer=home
HAHAHA Ivy league losers!!!
12 Shell-
foward this info on to ms adler:
Schizophrenia is a psychiatric diagnosis that describes a mental disorder characterized by abnormalities in the perception or expression of reality. It most commonly manifests as auditory hallucinations, paranoid or bizarre delusions, or disorganized speech and thinking with significant social or occupational dysfunction. Diagnosis is based on the patient’s self-reported experiences and observed behavior. No laboratory test for schizophrenia currently exists.
treat with lithium-
all disclaimers
serenity now says:
March 3, 2009 at 6:15 am
Madoff requesting to keep his penthouse
and $62 million. What a joke!
Jail would be to good. Put him out in
the cold, let him live under a bridge!
dont think he’d survive a month ‘living’ without police protection.
asking for $62 million is a joke.
February 27, 2009
Obama Puts the Economic Cart Before the Horse
In his first televised speech before Congress, President Obama asserted that prosperity will return once the government restores the flow of credit in the economy. It may come as a surprise to him, but an economy cannot run on consumer loans. Furthermore, credit stopped flowing in the U.S. for a very good reason: there was no more savings left to loan. Government efforts to simply make credit available, without rebuilding productive capacity or increasing savings, are doomed to destroy what’s left of our economy.
http://www.europac.net/externalframeset.asp?from=home&id=15572
(14) –
If Obama does not get rid of Summers and Geithner, we are skrood. On the other hand, maybe that is the point.
DL says:
March 3, 2009 at 7:09 am
I started scanning the listings in Bucks County recently since it would save a hefty sum in property taxes. Seems the sellers there didn’t get the memo about the market. Most still asking 2006 prices plus premium.
I’d say look harder … most are willing to negotiate. just bought in jan in Bucks. the taxes on our house (7k) are about the same that a relative will pay in Hunterdon County … for a condo.
our neighbor paid 600k in 2006 … and we chopped a significant amount off that for a nearly identical home (except with a much larger yard). it can be done.
also, one thing to note is that not all areas of Bucks had a massive run-up. really depends where you’re targeting
Pakistan is going down the tubes rapidly.
Terrorists in Lahore Kill 5 Police, Attack Cricketers
Terrorists in Lahore killed at least five policemen and injured six members of the Sri Lankan cricket team in Pakistan’s worst attack on foreigners since last September’s Marriott hotel bombing.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRPQdq8hJ6Kg&refer=home
G.E.
A friend of mine wants to buy GE for the dividends, claiming the current price is undervalued.
Playing devils advocate, I told him he’d better be willing to hold that stock through a bankruptcy.
Any thoughts on GE’s future? It’s a decent indicator of the broader market and they do have cash flow, so I would love to hear people’s thoughts.
DL it’s worse in Philly. I think PA overall (especially) Philly are at minimum 6 months behind other downward trends. I speak with Realtors constantly who talk about how busy they are, that the media is evil, that homes are selling above asking BUT somehow it’s still a buyers market. I’m no economist but you don’t have to be to realize something is very wrong in PA.
#12,
“Chatham”,
In 2004 I went to Century 21 office in New Providence and I told the broker that homes are overpriced by 50% and they need to drop by 30% (from 2004 prices) for me to even look.
She almost chased me out of her office with a broom after I made those comments.
NEW YORK (AP) – Struggling bank Citigroup Inc. said Tuesday that it will lower mortgage payments for some homeowners to an average of $500 a month for three months as part of a new program to help the unemployed.
The struggling bank makes the move as President Barack Obama looks to lenders to adjust the way loans are handled.
Unemployed homeowners who may qualify for assistance from Citigroup under the Homeowner Unemployment Assist program include those that are 60 days or more past due on their mortgages or in foreclosure and can pay the reduced amount. Customers must also have a first mortgage loan that is owned and serviced by CitiMortgage Inc. and conforms to government sponsored enterprise limits. The house must also be the customer’s primary residence, with homeowners meeting all insurer and guaranty requirements.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D96MIDSO0&show_article=1&catnum=0
#24,
and what are they going to do after the 3 months? Foreclose?
Yikes, ref 19. Thanks. When we return to the U.S. permanently this year we plan to look at Newtown. Doylestown a little too far out from Phila and NJ for us. I assumed offers were below asking but don’t have a feel for how much. 10-15% or more?
Citi turning every loan into a pick-a-payment option loan?
$500 for three months.
What does Citi do with the unpaid interest and principal for those three months?
I’ll bet they tack it on the end of the loan.
Not necessarily a bad idea for Citi, especially if the average borrower can find a job in 3 months.
However, this does raise the cost of capital for everyone else. Someone has to pay for the program.
Where did you think that taxpayer money was going to go?
The primary reason I support bailing out Product companies like GM, Chrysler, GE etc. is the primary cause of the current Crisis, simply stated, is a Service Economy isn’t Viable. Whether you are talking Financial Services, Healthcare Services, etc., they are all non productive Ponzi Schemes, loaded with non productive overhead, producing nothing worthwhile, while draining precious resource. America has a Parasite Economy.
Funny – worth a look (listen)…
The Monster Crash
http://www.portfolio.com/business-news/2009/03/03/Formula-That-Killed-Wall-Street?page=1#page=1
“The Formula That Killed Wall Street”
“Mathematician David Li’s Gaussian copula formula will go down in history as instrumental in causing the unfathomable losses that brought the world financial system to it’s knees.”
“Li can’t be blamed, says Gilkes of CreditSights. After all, he just invented the model. Instead, we should blame the bankers who misinterpreted it. And even then, the real danger was created not because any given trader adapted it but because every trader did.”
From the AP:
Mortgage delinquencies up for 8th straight quarter
The number of people who were late making their mortgage payments shot up 53 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008 from the same period in 2007, according to data provided by TransUnion LLC.
The credit reporting agency said its database shows delinquencies — or the percentage of mortgage holders at least 60 days behind on payments, considered a precursor to foreclosure — jumped to 4.58 percent nationally, from 2.99 percent for the 2007 fourth quarter.
That was 16 percent above the 3.96 percent rate seen in the third quarter, TransUnion said, and marked the eighth straight quarter that deliquency rates rose.
“It’s about what we were expecting,” said Keith Carson, senior consultant in TransUnion’s financial services group. But while not unexpected, the huge jump from last year was still “alarming,” Carson said.
TransUnion, best known for its consumer credit rating data, projects delinquency rates could reach as high as 8 percent by the end of the year. The company isn’t predicting that the climate will improve until the middle of 2010.
confused in nj [29],
Couldn’t agree more… all a scam. “Professional Services” is the biggest bunch of bullsh*t on the planet. It’s better than a Ponzi scheme. As Robert DiNero said in the movie Casino, “it’s all designed to get your money!”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123603913648314649.html
“Bad Bank” Funding Plan Starts to Get Fleshed Out”
“Other investors, such as pension funds, could also participate” – HAH!
Gov Jindal is taking about reducing capital gain tax. Republicans have lost it all. What’s next? Ice for Eskimos?
#23 frank
I’m starting to like/agree with some of your posts.
Investing in GE/Citi is nothing more than gambling. You are theorizing that since the stock price went so far down, then it has the most room to move back up (larger gain potential than the rest). Such reasoning is no different than the person who walks up to the roulette wheel only after 10 straight black numbers and bets it all on red. There is a reason that the financials are down over 80% from the top as the techs are down 60%, but the consumer staples are down about 28%. It has something to do with earnings and earnings drive stock prices. In the short run, there are lots of other factors that influence stock price. But over a five to ten year period, if you chart earnings next to a stock price, they will run parallel.
Do you think GE will turn profitable anytime soon or C for that matter? Both companies are most likely going to be forced to sell off profitable pieces of their company to stay afloat until housing bottoms. Remember that 80% drop? That was based on the maximum earning potential of the company. Now that profitable pieces have been sold off, the maximum future earnings may be a lot smaller. Woe…all of a sudden, those techs with 60% drops may look a lot prettier, or the consumer staples that are only down 28%. But what do I know?
Disclaimer: I’m just sharing my janitorial duties with some other Wall Street schmuck who thought betting on Citi was a good idea two years ago.
COAH asked to redo housing mandates
COAH has been under fire from municipalities since it adopted its revised Round III regulations in June. Under the new regulations the state is required to provide residents with approximately 115,000 units of affordable housing by 2018. Previous regulations required municipalities to provide 52,000 affordable housing units.
Under COAH’s growth share method, a municipality must construct one unit of affordable housing for every five units of market rate housing built within its borders. Additionally, for every 16 jobs created in a municipality, the town is required to construct one affordable housing unit.
Who will build all these houses and who will buy them?
#36,
I have always said that home prices are overpriced by 50%, but so far I have only seen a little of the decline.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/03/03/business/03mortgage.php
“Two fallen U.S. mortgage giants are unlikely to be restored”
International Herald Tribune
“Once government gets a new tool, it’s virtually impossible to take it away,” said Representative Scott Garnett, a Republican of New Jersey and member of the Financial Services subcommittee. “And Fannie and Freddie are now tools of the government.”
#37,
GE is going the way of Citi, just look at their short term debt, they need to refi 100+B of short term debt.
Cooper,
Re: #11 – HSBC has not taken any bailout funds from the US or the UK where it is based.
Talk about a near miss!
A 200-foot wide asteroid zoomed past Earth today at an altitude of 40,000 miles – swerving far enough from our planet to avoid total destruction, officials said.
Dubbed 2009 DD45, the large rock was discovered only Friday by Australian astronomers.
The enormous asteroid narrowly avoided a collision with Earth at 8:44 EST, officials said.
Although 40,000 miles sounds like a safe distance, it’s only about one-seventh of the way to the moon and less than twice as far out as most satellites, astronomers said.
Had 2009 DD45 slammed down onto the Earth, it would have exploded with the force of a large nuclear blast somewhere in the Pacific Ocean west of Tahiti.
Congratulations Stu on your big day yesterday. You were all having some kind of fun.
(43) Confused – It sorta FEELS like that asteroid hit….Bam.
Although a bit off topic, well way off topic, this is an important read for any thinking American. As bad as I believe Obama will be for this nation, this article points to just how scary the last group was. It looks like had we suffered a single large terrorist attack in CONUS after 9-11 we might well have ended up with martial law. I for one would rather be poor and free than “wealthy” and under the thumb of a military government.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/02/AR2009030202906.html?hpid=topnews
[43]confused,
scary stuff as that is a near miss, astronomically speaking. Amazed that with all the tracking we do, it was only seen a few days before passing the planet.
Something to ponder though: What satellites are 80,000 miles out? I thought most of our satellites were in geosynchronous orbit, which, if memory serves, is about 22,000 miles.
About Madoff:
I suspect that for 99.99999999999999% of the American public, were a judge to tell us we HAD to stay confined to Madoff’s penthouse until further notice it would be seen as tyhe most amazing stroke of good luck — a luxury vacation beyond the comprehension of most people. If a judge does not want to jail Madoff, fine; however, he should be confined to a Holiday Inn room, not a luxury apartment.
hope my friend stu and clot got of their muzzles yesterday at close.
“irrational exuberance”? what the wiseman said 12 years ago reflects what happens now – just 180 degree opposite.
Anyone have any experience in Cranford? For some reason this town has a crazy market. A few weeks ago my wife & I looked at a 3Br cape (that needed a lot of work) in a not so desirable area of town. They were asking 350k and 3 offers came in within 24 hours of the listing around the 350k mark and the seller accepted. We also know of another house with an asking of 499k that went under contract in 13 days…
Finally, can I never hear another person tell me that New York is “different?”
from CNBC:
“Commodities are still the best play for the long term, legendary investor Jim Rogers told CNBC, confessing that he has been buying farmland himself.
“We’re still going to eat, probably; we’re still going to wear clothes, probably. Farmers cannot get loans for fertilizers right now. So the supplies of everything are going to continue to be under pressure,” Rogers said.
He is the director of two funds which are buying greenfield land in Brazil and existing farms in Canada and starting to farm it. The funds are clearing the land, fertilizing it, irrigating it and hiring farmers and, Rogers said, some day will probably sell the land but that is a remote prospect.
“If I’m right, agriculture is going to be one of the greatest industries in the next 20 years, 30 years.”
Rogers has his own Nompound???????
I have a problem with continued clearing for farming in Brazil, which is deforesting at an incredible rate, so bad on him for that.
#48 – That should be confined to a Holiday Inn room WITH BED BUGS!!
Technicals Ugly, Risk of Domino Bank Collapses
http://nyinvestingmeetup.blogspot.com/
Pending Home Sales due out at 10am
bi:
“hope my friend stu and clot got of their muzzles yesterday at close. ”
If I recall correctly, you are not to mention, hint, or even infer anything related to SRS. You are NOT even allowed to respond to this message accept perhaps to admit you were 120% wrong.
accept/except sorry!
Finally we have a sign of the coming of the end of days….
Mall wants Manilow music to drive out unruly teens
“You are theorizing that since the stock price went so far down, then it has the most room to move back up (larger gain potential than the rest).”
This is how I explain things to my children (Copyright 2008, 2009, by author using pen name of Shore Guy)
Lets say there is a tabl;e with 100 pennies on it. Lets allow each penny to represent a house. How much is a penny worth? One cent, correct. Lets say someone wants to switch one house (penny) for another. They pay how much? Right again, one penny, because that is its market value. The value of the entire lot of homes is $1.
Now let us imagine that one of those pennies has a distinctive quality — a double imprint, or something else that makes it more desirable than the others. So, someone comes along and says, I will pay 10 cents for that penny. Suddenly, that sale becomes a comp for all the other pennies, and everyone starts to believe that their penny is also worth ten cents. This is pure folly inasmuch as the other pennies are not special. But, it is THEIR penny so they believe otherwise.
Now, lets say that there are hundreds of potential penny buyers and they look at these pennies and see that people are trying to sell their pennies for ten cents. Most potential buyers say, “No way.” These wise people walk away, but a few fools look at the one that sold for ten cents and think, “Wow, an opportunity to get in on the ground floor.” Next thing one sees is that a total of 10 pennies have sold for ten cents each. Now there are a sufficient number of comp sales at 10 cents that the entire lot of homes is assumed to be worth ten cents each or $10.
Of course, the value really is only $9.90, but no on looks deeply enough to see the folly of the current pricing structure.
Now, given this, if the prices of most of those pennies drops to five cents, three cents, or even two cents, is one getting a good deal on the purchase even at 50%, 70%, or 80% off of the peak prices?
I submit that buying on “sale” only makes sense if the goods being purchased represent a value at the sale price. The original price means nothing, really.
http://www.usdoj.gov/opa/documents/memomilitaryforcecombatus10232001.pdf
I’m taking a “what sh*t do I always NEED” approach to looking into getting back into stocks, then doing the work. I agree with the above article, everybody needs to eat and furthermore, we Americans like a clean house.
This is the only way I know how to invest. It has to make sense to me or I can’t put my money on it. Limited, sure but I haven’t lost anything (yet).
“Mall wants Manilow music to drive out unruly teens”
It would drive me out too.
Excellent explanation Shore.
Also, ladies are cutting way back on their beauty budgets. Salon visits and dept store 90 dollar moisturizers are being replaced with better drug store brands and at home treatments.
This is an area I will also look into
short hills renter:
$350K for a cape in cranford is a good price. It was probably $700K in 2006. There is a Cape Cod on the market in Chatham for over a million! LOL. Sitting there forever as the dumb sellers dont realize its probably worth about $600K. Must be advised by a realtor in denial.
I’ve been sitting on my delayed NJT train this morning waiting to get into NYC. I’m being entertained by the bourgeois riot that is fermenting in my car. I’ve got a great revenue generating idea for Comrade Corzine – Blackberry License. As I have seen this morning, they are definitely dangerous when in the hands of the self-important and overly caffeinated! It seems like a win-win to me.
“When are the sellers going to realize that the buyers are holding all the cards?”
When buyers sit on their cash and say, “No thank you. Not at that price.”
If one can sell something for a price above what it is worth, why would one drop the price?
We need a Kulack’s Union.
[50] short
Cranford is much like Brigadoon but has the disadvantage (some would say advantage) of being next to the GSP, Union and Roselle, and closer to the badlands. It is the first of the tony train towns on the RVT, but being a border town, it suffers somewhat in relation to SP or Brigadoon, which are better insulated from the badlands. Personally, I like Cranford as there is much to commend it (and truth be told, I like it better than Westfield except for proximity to less desirable areas).
Can’t help on schools, services, etc. as I have no basis of comparison. Mrs. Deplume did more research there and would have been okay with Cranford, if that helps.
Cindy: “The Formula That Killed Wall Street”
Great article. I guess Wall Street won’t be relying on formulas too much going forward.
I wonder if one can develop internet based social network, get user feedback, and develop an index that can be used for risk management?
I like Cranford a lot as well, but watch those flood zones you potential home buyers!
[66] Gator
Could not disagree more. I used to ride Amtrak daily, and when blackberrys started replacing cellphones, it got a LOT quieter.
Only way a blackberry could be dangerous on a train is if you threw it at someone. Cellphones are much more annoying.
Shelley says:
March 3, 2009 at 9:38 am
short hills renter:
$350K for a cape in cranford is a good price. It was probably $700K in 2006. There is a Cape Cod on the market in Chatham for over a million! LOL. Sitting there forever as the dumb sellers dont realize its probably worth about $600K. Must be advised by a realtor in denial.
Cranford is PRIME!!! it is not for renters-wannabes homeowners… It is for special people only!
Cranford is totally unique and special: You know kind of like Methuchen, Fanwood, Clark, Scotch Plains Sprinfield, Union, Summit, Watchung, and of course Westfield!!!… And some others… In fact any town in NJ is very special!!! Except for Newark…
Newark is a great way to invest for people with VISION as it is about to explode with commercial activity and all new money coming in, it will become a new Manhattan!!!
“Newark is a great way to invest for people with VISION as it is about to explode with commercial activity and all new money coming in, it will become a new Manhattan!!!”
I hear the hipsters are calling it NewHo!!!
Al, please say hello to your wife, pumper Sue Adler.
Al,
Just like Newark, Asbury Park is just one step from, from, well, from something.
Stu says:
March 3, 2009 at 9:46 am
I like Cranford a lot as well, but watch those flood zones you potential home buyers!
I looked at the house in Cranford…. It was in the flood zone, but realtor kept telling me that it is not. Than I showed her FEMA map where it lists it as in the FLOOD Water Run-off planes.
As in: flood insurance required to get a mortgage…
She still did not put it in he listings.
Personally I feel like it is nice town If you NEED NYC commuting… I don’t so huge premium is not worth it to me. It is also extremely crowded in the town itself and surrounding areas…..
Asbury Park is on its way to being a retirement community for old gay dudes.
Shore Guy says:
March 3, 2009 at 9:08 am
Although a bit off topic, well way off topic, this is an important read for any thinking American. As bad as I believe Obama will be for this nation, this article points to just how scary the last group was. It looks like had we suffered a single large terrorist attack in CONUS after 9-11 we might well have ended up with martial law. I for one would rather be poor and free than “wealthy” and under the thumb of a military government.
Hey Shore – how about
be poor and under the and under the thumb of a military government.
“Asbury Park is on its way to being a retirement community for old gay dudes.”
On its way?
also,
with the whole middle class maid service phenom finally over, or just about, will people start buying better vacuums and whatnot, since they will be cleaning their houses now? hmmm
(70) SG – Unbelievable when you think about it…No one wanted to listen to the skeptics. Please tell me we learned something.
80.
Stu
I still know some young rock n rollers in Asbury, but I don’t think the scene can hold up to lace curtains and Victoriania everything for much longer.
[68] shore guy
We have one. It’s called the investor class, and they have voted with their feet.
In the history of the world, the response of the upper classes to revolution was to flee with their wealth.
The Messiah professes to the the next Lincoln. Well, here is what Lincoln said on the subject:
“You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift. You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong. You cannot help the wage earner by pulling down the wage payer. You cannot further the brotherhood of many by encouraging class hatred. You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich. You cannot keep out of trouble by spending more than you earn. You cannot build character and courage by taking away mans initiative and independence. You cannot help men permanently by doing for them what they could and should do for themselves.”
Abraham Lincoln
Asbury is very, very sad. We looked at a multi-level penthouse condo on Wesley Lake a year or two ago and, as lovely as it was, and as terrific as the views were, and as convenient as it was to the train, to OG, etc., right across the street is Fort Apache The Bronx. The developers are making a real mistake trying to develop the area between Kingsley and Ocean. That area should be broad lawns (except for existing structures like the BC, Pony, Empress) and the development should start on the west side of Kingsley, with less-than-five-story structures with retail at street level. The next block back is where the taller structures should start. Anything else creates a wall of wealth by the Boardwalk/lakes and will retard the development of decent properties further back, locking Asburyit in an economic spot it does not want to be.
(84) Whoa Nom – good find.
[73] Al
Good one!
85.
its Atlantic City in the making
Nom,
Do you have a fill citation? I want to get my hands on the full document. That statement is golden.
I walked into houses in Asbury with a realtor where the tenants were at the dining room table, scale, little baggies etc. This was one block from the ocean. 2002ish.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Jan. pending home sales down 7.7%, realtors say
#81 barbara: I always found it amazing that everyday people over the last few years just had to have maid service, and lawn service.
Everyday people who justs were too important and special to mow their own lawns and clean their own houses.
[86] cindy
source: http://www.kudzuworld.com/Quotes/index.EN.aspx
This is a compendium of some of my favorite quotes, particularly those from Churchill, Voltaire, Heinlein, Tytler’s oft-repeated quote, and one I recently used from Norman Thomas (which I commend to those taking the macroview of events).
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Jan. pending home sales down 7.7%, realtors say
The number of new sales contracts on existing homes fell a seasonally adjusted 7.7% in January amid job losses and weak consumer confidence, a real estate trade group said Tuesday. The index is now down 6.4% from a year earlier, the National Association of Realtors said. “We expect similarly soft home sales in the near term, but buyers are expected to respond to much improved affordability conditions and from the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit” in the stimulus package, said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. January’s pending sales rose in the West, and fell in the Northeast, South and Midwest. In December, the pending home sales index rose 4.8%, compared with a prior estimate of a 6.3% gain. The index is based on signed sales contracts, which usually occur a month or two before the sale is closed, when sales are reported in the NAR’s existing-home sales report.
3b
I have relatives of modest means who have no idea how to clean a bathroom. Maids are gone, now their houses stink.
God forbid they get down on hands and knees to clean their own mess.
From Bloomberg:
Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Fell 7.7% in January
Fewer Americans than forecast signed contracts to buy previously owned homes in January, signaling the housing slump will extend well into a fourth year.
The index of pending home resales fell 7.7 percent after a 4.8 percent gain in December, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington.
A lack of credit and record foreclosures that are pushing property values even lower may keep prospective buyers out of the market for much of 2009. President Barack Obama has pledged to keep more Americans in their homes and to create jobs, and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke today said more should be done to stabilize financial markets.
“Demand is falling even with price incentives, which shows consumers are very, very cautious about purchasing homes,” John Herrmann, president of Herrmann Forecasting LLC in Summit, New Jersey, said before the report. “It’s hard to meet the tighter requirements for mortgage loans.”
Economists forecast a 3.5 percent drop in pending sales after an originally reported gain of 6.3 percent in December, according to the median forecast of 32 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from declines of 0.8 percent to 5 percent.
…
The group’s index decreased to 80.4 in January, the lowest level since records began.
Three of four regions dropped, led by a 13 percent slump in the Northeast and a 12 percent slide in the South. Pending sales increased 2.4 percent in the West.
Compared with January 2008, pending sales decreased 6.4 percent.
[92] 3b
No, not too important or special, just too busy.
When we lived in VA, the lawn got to be 2 feet tall because I never had time to mow it. Took a few more weeks of attacking it to get it back to a semblance of normal. I finally broke down and hired a lawn guy, not because I was too good but it would not get done otherwise.
Are there folks who have domestic help that really don’t need it? Sure, but stupid expenditures have long propped up our economy, and the government is not discouraging that. That is the free market method of redistribution of wealth.
CNBC just said that according to realtors, housing affordibility is at a record high!
3b says:
March 3, 2009 at 10:03 am
#81 barbara: I always found it amazing that everyday people over the last few years just had to have maid service, and lawn service.
Everyday people who justs were too important and special to mow their own lawns and clean their own houses.
Every single house around me still have Lawn service….
Kilgore: I hate sound of leaf-blower sunday morning…….
Clearly, the entrepreneurial spirit still lived in Asbury as late as 2002.
http://books.google.com/books?id=w5-GR-qtgXsC&pg=PA92&dq=quotes+abraham+lincoln+you+cannot+bring+about+prosperity
Nom – I just tried to search it for myself and ran into some conflicting views – Some say it should be attributed to Wm. J.H. Boetcker – U.S. Clergyman – 1916 but falsely attributed to S. Lincoln –
Who cares…a truth is a truth…
Gotta run..
#95 barbara: Nothing like a clean bathroom.
Gary,
It is, for the solvent. And if one is willing to buy a $7,000 house in Det.
from that Bloomberg article:
…his debt relative to his available credit. This so- called utilization rate is a key factor in determining credit scores.
I just got my freebie annual credit report, and paid $7.95 to get my credit score.
All of my accounts are “pays as agreed.”
Only outstanding balance is $571 – new bill, just generated, will be paid next Monday via bank transfer. I NEVER run balances. My “ratio” – 2% of my available credit.
My credit score is 810 out of a possible 850. The report said I got dinged because I didn’t have a “recent (non-mortgage) installment loan.” That I understand – they deduct points if you don’t have a mortgage or car loan.
But there was another note: “The amount owed on your revolving/charge accounts is too high.”
Huh?
I haven’t had any of my credit lines reduced. Over the last couple of months, my rates have been reduced slightly – very low rates to start, but they got bumped down a bit.
But I’m still puzzling over that line.
“There’s a big disconnect between buyers and sellers,” Liss said. “Buyers want 50 percent discounts and sellers don’t want to reduce the price at all. That’s why transactions are down. Both buyers and sellers are being equally unrealistic.”
**********************
Ha ha ha… guess again
Kilgore: I hate sound of leaf-blower sunday morning……. You know, one time they were blowing it for 2 hours..
When it was all over, I walked up. We didn’t find one leaf, not one stinkin’ leaf…. The smell, you know that gasoline smell, the whole block. Smelled like….
Gotta love internet :)
#99 Al:Every single house around me still have Lawn service….
Me too, (except for me and my enxt door neighbor) at least up until last Summer/Fall.
I can understand the Seniors, where many of them are just no longer able to do it.
But believe me there are alot of people who could use the exercise of a little lawn work, and bathroom cleaning.
Get your own leaf blower and duel with the landscapers in the street.
They push the leaves and clippings into the street.
You push them back.
Great fun.
last quote:
Kilgore: What the hell do you know about surfing? You’re from goddamned New Jersey.
[95] barb,
Guess they are gonna have to learn, just like the rest of us did. Course, when we were kids, we did that. It was called Chores. We had to do it if we wanted to eat or wear clean clothes. In fact, I often was a better cook, and did a better job cleaning and maintaing clothes than most women I dated (though my wife disputes the cooking part). Over the past two decades, kids were too special for chores. Now they can’t do crap.
When they are of age, my girls will know how to maintain a home and its systems, clear a clog, change out plumbing and electrical fixtures, maintain the lawnmower, handle power tools properly, do basic woodworking, cook, maintain gardens, and even change the car’s oil. My old man made me do a lot around the house, and I hated it at the time, but it is invaluable now. The rest I learned because I was poor.
/rant off
#105 skeptic: I would say the buyers are much more justified in supposedly being unrealistic, than the sellers.
Funny, on the way up nobody accusesd the sellers of being unrealistic, it was simply the market.
Well welcome to the new market.
grim says:
March 3, 2009 at 10:14 am
Get your own leaf blower and duel with the landscapers in the street.
They push the leaves and clippings into the street.
You push them back.
Great fun.
Actually the crew which works are very neat..They pick all leafs and mulch them on the spot. I assume they sell mulches leafs and branches/grass to somebody.
Yards of most of my neighbours are spotless…..
Really spotless…
And there is a very SHARP line where their yeard ends and mine starts….
But they vener get any leafs over to my side. I do not really know how they are managing it.
I just mow my lawn and let the mulched grass stay on the lawn… natural fertilizer :)
[101] cindy,
Yeah, that is the problem with the internet. Even I had my doubts as I was not aware of any historical context for it and had not heard it before (unlike some of the others)
But, as you note, it is a great quote for rebutting demagogues, and I could easily see it being used in the Douglas-Lincoln debates.
Dow up 47 points. Not exactly a snap back rally.
#98 gary:CNBC just said that according to realtors, housing affordibility is at a record high!
Maybe in California where prices are down 40% from August of 2007, and in other places in the West and Fla etc.
But not in our area, not yet, but that is where they are going.
I would bet that there were thousands of homeowners in Cal in 2007 who if you said prices would be 40% lower in little more than a year would have laughed heartily, and yet they are now 40% lower.
It will be the same in our area as well. There is simply no other outcome.
Nom,
I was raised in similar fashion. Saturday until 1pm was spent cleaning the house. Had to vacuum and dust daily after school and my mother would move an object and check for dust (finger test) prior to releasing me to go out. Being the youngest of seven, my chore list grew exponentially until my release into college. And my friends wondered why I didn’t go home on weekends and during breaks.
[101] cindy
Good find. Much more trustworthy source. I wonder why the constant misattribution. Usually that requires some sort of event.
[116] STu
I thought you were from Montclair? You went to MSU and lived on campus?
I didn’t have to dust. Wish I did; it would have been a lot easier than hauling cinderblocks, 5 gallon buckets of rock and gravel, or wheelbarrows full of concrete, for masonry projects.
That just plain sucked.
Nom, 43
Some defense satellites orbit at about 80,000 miles. The Vela satellites, used to detect nuclear detonations are some of the more well known ones.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Has-housing-found-a-floor/story.aspx?guid=%7B6A0B8E30%2D2BD3%2D4860%2D82FE%2D42CB0B25E136%7D
housing bottom?
can anyone run the numbers to see what the income to housing price ratio is in our area? i am almost sure its not 2.9!!!
Com 114
I expected a suckers rally at these levels also. I guess all the suckers re broke these days. The market is having a tough time finding buyers (suckers) these days.
Nom,
I’m from East Brunswick. Family was solidly middle class. My parents were and still are the king and queen of frugality.
Big Ben is speaking. Oy! The market should hear something it does not like sooner or later. 6,600 anyone?
make,
There will be more bear market rallies. Not too long ago we were at 9300 on the Dow and John and Bi were creaming in their pants. The smart money was shorting. There will be more opportunities to do the same in the future.
Remember, until the gubmint starts doing the right things (not gonna happen) and stops throwing money into the fire a la Japan, then no rally will be anything more than a sucker rally. The fact that every single piece of economic data points to further declines is not encouraging.
#46
if the USA was actually being invaded, and these people’s own lives were actually in imminent danger, I am certain all of these Monday morning quarterbacks would want the government to do everything in its power to protect them.
make:
second what stu said
72 Nom – In general I agree, but information is sometimes dangerous in the hands of the half-wits. Crazy blackberry lady was repeatedly telling her fellow passengers that we were all going to Hoboken because she got the NJT alerts saying that later trains were being diverted. You would also think that crazy blackberry later was the only person late to work today.
Our train line has an independent list serve called Clever Commute where people email in about delays. “Conductor Josh” who runs Clever Commute actually had to send out an email this morning that said “this will not be a forum for name-calling and finger pointing.
So far today, I’ve had to disable one person’s posting rights due to inappropriate comments…and will likely next remove that person altogether.”
“if the USA was actually being invaded, and these people’s own lives were actually in imminent danger, I am certain all of these Monday morning quarterbacks would want the government to do everything in its power to protect them.”
Yes Skep, but that was not the case here.
Twenty or so dudes went to flight school and flew planes into buildings (or attempted to). Our response was to limit peoples rights at home and attack a country that had absolutely no relationship to the terrorist act.
Keep believing what you want.
#96
“Economists forecast a 3.5 percent drop in pending sales after an originally reported gain of 6.3 percent in December, according to the median forecast of 32 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from declines of 0.8 percent to 5 percent.”
these people still don’t understand how bad the situation is. Not one of these economists came close
Skeptic,
Any free society must accept the fact that terrorist strikes will happen and cannot be stopped. They can be limited if you restrict or remove said freedom, but a motivated individual or group ultimately cannot be stopped from conducting unconventional warfare if they are willing to die in the commission of said act.
The only real defense is to have a workable relation ship with the potential source.
#120
that is an interesting point that based on price to income nationally, house prices are as affordable as they were in the early 80s.
On the other hand, consumers are massively more leveraged than they were in the early 80s, unemployment is still rising rapidly and there is a massive inventory overhang. So I think that the historical 2.9 metric is probably not low enough.
Of course, prices in this area of the country still remain well above their long term average relative to income, and incomes are dropping
“The only real defense is to have a workable relation ship with the potential source.”
You mean W’s relationship with the Saudi yoyalty was not the potential source?
In the spirit of Jim Rogers buying farm land in Canada and Brazil, I remember a while back someone posted here a beautiful old victorian in upsate NY with farm land for around 150K!!
Does anyone remember it?
I woudl be interested in buying up some farmland. What agriculture do we farm upstate?
Any thoughts?
“Of course, prices in this area of the country still remain well above their long term average relative to income, and incomes are dropping”
Wouldn’t it just totally suck if our incomes managed to come down the same amount as housing? Perhaps saving was not such a bad idea after all!
“What agriculture do we farm upstate?”
Judging by our leader’s example, can one plant and harvest barbed wire?
Of course, prices in this area of the country still remain well above their long term average relative to income, and incomes are dropping
Still a great time to play the geo arbitrage game.
Retiree moving to Arizona or Florida? You’ve got it made.
Stu,
I’m thinking part investment part safe haven. Big old shot gun and a pitbul in the middle of no where.
I’ll see the gubmints coming a mile away.
#128
“Yes Skep, but that was not the case here.
Twenty or so dudes went to flight school and flew planes into buildings (or attempted to). Our response was to limit peoples rights at home and attack a country that had absolutely no relationship to the terrorist act.
Keep believing what you want.”
Stu– the point is that no one knew at the time the extent of the terrorist plots. I can concede that as time went on and we learned that massive, coordinated attacks weren’t coming, that protective measures might have been ratcheted back. But it seems to me the most egregious kind of monday morning quarterbacking to fault Bush for trying to do everything he could to protect the country in the weeks immediately following 9/11, when no one really knew what was going on.
“Still a great time to play the geo arbitrage game.”
not just AZ and FL– move just about anywhere in the country and do this– even CA
Red?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atAM8ptyWEU8&refer=home
these economists have no idea do they?? way off the mark! so much for that call to bottom!!!
S&P under 700!
GE with a 6 handle. I cannot wait to pump them up with gubbmint TARP money.
not just AZ and FL– move just about anywhere in the country and do this– even CA
For retirees that took a hit to their portfolios, this might not be a bad strategy.
Portfolio down 50%, home prices down 25%. However, most retirees were long-term owners, which means they still have significant equity/appreciation in their homes..
Sell the house, purchase a lower price home in a battered bubble state, and live off the difference in the short-term in hopes that equities stage some sort of rebound.
Skep,
in my opinion, the initial response was not the problem. The problem was the patriot act I & II which made the response permanent.
stu (56)-
I will accept nothing less that bi’s confession that he is now my byatch.
“in my opinion, the initial response was not the problem. The problem was the patriot act I & II which made the response permanent.”
that is a fair point of view. I do think the parts of the patriot act that address terrorism financing have been quite successful and non-controversial, but I understand why people have problems with the other parts
#131 skeptic: and incomes are dropping
And so are prices, just not fast enough.
This has been for sale forever. I think it was originally listed for 629K now at 499K. Anyone have the listing history on it?
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Wayne-Twp_NJ_07470_1106670578
make money says:
March 3, 2009 at 11:10 am
In the spirit of Jim Rogers buying farm land in Canada and Brazil, I remember a while back someone posted here a beautiful old victorian in upsate NY with farm land for around 150K!!
Does anyone remember it?
I woudl be interested in buying up some farmland. What agriculture do we farm upstate?
Any thoughts?
albani: search for undeveloped property that can be rezoned with a conservation easement; work with a specialized attorney with connections to a NYS eco-trust, and a good civil engineer that can create maps to parcel out everything. Expect to hold the land for several years and get a mega-tax deduction out of it.
chicagofinance says:
March 3, 2009 at 11:29 am
make money says:
March 3, 2009 at 11:10 am
In the spirit of Jim Rogers buying farm land in Canada and Brazil, I remember a while back someone posted here a beautiful old victorian in upsate NY with farm land for around 150K!!
Does anyone remember it?
I woudl be interested in buying up some farmland. What agriculture do we farm upstate?
Any thoughts?
albani: search for undeveloped property that can be rezoned with a conservation easement; work with a specialized attorney with connections to a NYS eco-trust, and a good civil engineer that can create maps to parcel out everything. Expect to hold the land for several years and get a mega-tax deduction out of it.
albani: there are two or three outfits in NYC that are all over this…I’m sure they are dying for work; I can give you referrals through one of my clients…..
Clot:
“I will accept nothing less that bi’s confession that he is now my byatch.”
You didn’t have any skin in the game. I could have been forced to never mention SRS again. :P
Is Toyota the Japanese GM? Apparently they’re seeking a $2B loan from the Japanese gvt.
We knew those exports were off by a lot the past few months. A strong yen and a week U.S. market can’t make for a happy Japan Inc.
What I can’t believe is the strength of the dollar against all currencies out there. Gold is approaching the 800’s again. Give me the six handle (I can dream) and I’m all in with pocket aces.
Stick a fork in Asbury, it’s done for. The revitalization train should have started in 1994, not 2004.
#154 – stu – the strength of the dollar against all currencies
I believe the reason given for the dollar strength is the unwind in dollar denominated contracts/assets creating a demand for the currency rather than any intrinsic value or status as a “safe haven”.
But I could be wrong.
Ben,
Asbury could use a lantern and a cow.
Tosh,
Precisely. Vast majority of debt in the world is dollar denominated. If you have to pay you are usually going to pay in dollars.
Thanks Tosh/Hehehe.
I am absolutely lost when it comes to Forex.
#157 – Asbury could use a lantern and a cow.
Isn’t that how Asbury became the Asbury we know today?
Not that I’m implying massive insurance fraud or anything…
Stu (152)-
Trust me; if you saw my brokerage statement, you’d know I have skin in the game.
Backed by my pancreas, spleen and colon.
Ford reporting sales…. off in Feb %48.4
VNO entering zombie zone. Get used to that muzzle, bi.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:VNO-E
I’m still in Aspen, a great deal of the enormus mountain side mansions are for sale about 1/2 price. There was a late night smash and grab at one of the jewerly stores here.
Hotel and resturants are about 50 percent occupancy,
mostly Europeans here on Vacation. Fashion week seems a bust not too many models in town.
I was watcing Bergabe during breakfasT seems Congress is finaly learing something about shadow banking too bad it is about 8 years too late.
Nice too see Bi made some money for us with SRS, wonder what his pick is for this month.
Life sucks when your snout is jammed into a leather constraint:
http://tinyurl.com/4w7odp
Clot…I was referring to blog skin. The monetary gains are nice. The muzzle is priceless!
Stu,
It’s basically a short term phenomenon. As companies, hedge funds, banks etc are called upon by their creditors to pay off or refinance their debt they need to make payments via dollars because the debt is denominated in dollars.
Once there’s a bottoming out in the debt markets, which could take a few years or even a decade if the government keeps bailing companies out, the dollar will likely face a stiff drop.
The only other thing that will put a bottom under it is either the threat of our military or the protection offered by our military to other countries.
Japan and the Gulf States will buy our debt for our military protection. China and Russia bought it because it made economic sense to buy it.
The latter two are probably going to be less likely to buy it, or at a minimum going to buy less of it, going forward as there’s no econmic reason to buy our debt given the likelihood of this bubble getting expanded again is slim and none.
It is also hinted by their leadership that China and Russia are under the impression they could stand up to us militarily. I hope we never have to find that out.
Sorry, Stu…racing through my daily list of companies closing in on zombieland.
I think HIG and MET are there. Really need BXP and SPG to accelerate their plummet before I start dancing on the table, though.
“Life sucks when your snout is jammed into a leather constraint:”
Was it John, or Frank, or Patient or someone talking about a club in NY where that would be a premium service?
“Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Tuesday that any hope for an economic recovery will hinge on the government’s ability to prop up shaky financial markets.”
NOW I am officially worried.
[127] gator
Things are certainly different in Montclair.
And I assume that the commuter listserv wound up looking a lot like this board? At that point, I just turn it off (as I have done here a few times, and as I have done to a very good friend’s blog after it became apparent that he drank quite a lot of kool-aid).
“Once government gets a new tool, it’s virtually impossible to take it away,” said Representative Scott Garnett, a Republican of New Jersey and member of the Financial Services subcommittee. “And Fannie and Freddie are now tools of the government.”
They obviously never should have been privatized in the first place.
I’m holding out for Detriot pricing in Aspen.
“government’s ability to prop up shaky financial markets.”
Because we all know it is the government’s job to prop up markets.
My father-in-law ran a dairy farm in upstate NY for many years. Lot of dairy farms. The acreage later became the main entrance off rte 11 for Fort Drum in Jefferson County.
Nom 171 – Sometimes my neighbors are so full of themselves that I wish I lived in someplace less “fabulous”.
Clever Commute emails can sometimes get annoying, but 75% of the time they provide information about trouble before NJT does. For instance this morning, I received Clever Commute alerts a good 30 minutes before the NJT Conductors on my train made any meaningful announcements about what was going on.
At least now they are getting everyone to put the relevant info into the email subject so that you can scan what’s coming into your inbox without opening up the individual emails.
They are up and running for the RVL too. http://www.clevercommute.com/
[176] gator
thanks for the link. We need something like that on the Rodney Dangerfield Line.
State of New Jersey WARN notices for February: 1247 total job losses announced.
Company City Date #
SLM FINANCIAL CORPORATION MT LAUREL 4/3/2009 45
SOUTH JERSEY HOSPITAL, INC. VINELAND 3/31/2009 123
THE EVENING JOURNAL ASSOCIATION JERSEY CITY 4/13/2009 144
CASTLEFORD TAILORS, LTD WILLIAMSTOWN 4/7/2009 145
BURBERRY WHOLESALE, LTD WILLIAMSTOWN 4/7/2009 8
SOUTHERN WINE AND SPIRITS OF NEW JERSEY SOMERVILLE 4/1/2009 18
FORTUNOFF HOLDINGS, LLC STATEWIDE 2/13/2009 445
CHELSEA PROPERTY GROUP ROSELAND 4/17/2009 71
YANG MING (AMERICA) CORP JERSEY CITY 4/1/2009 72
MAX RAVE, LLC NORTH BERGEN 5/1/2009 70
BASF CATALYSTS, LLC EAST NEWARK 5/1/2009 34
IBM PARAMUS 2/23/2009 72
Total 1247
Interesting that an NJ liquor distributor is laying off workers. I would have thought that business would be booming with all you guys stocking up on booze to barter with once the rioting begins.
ChiFi,
I’m not interested in a major land to farm conversion. Or a huge farm land with hundreds of acres.
I would like to buy a home up there for up to 150K with something like 10-15 acres of land where I can house/employ two or three individuals and use that property as a safe haven when the food riots start.
Make just enough food so that my family can make it through until it’s safe to get back to the NYC.
Call me crazy but that’s what I’m thinking these days.
It was refreshing to see Jim Rogers on CNBC echoing what my wife and I have been talking about.
The End of the Consumer Credit Empire: Stairway to Retail Heaven
A smart retail executive should be analyzing the current situation with a critical eye. Any executive who is planning for an upturn in spending by consumers next year is in for a rude awakening. The environment has changed forever and if they don’t adapt immediately, their companies will die. Based on the balance sheets and cash flows of the retailers in the following chart, I’ve categorized them according to their risk level. Most of the information is prior to the dreadful holiday sales season. Balance sheets and cash flows continue to deteriorate. Some of the retailers on this list will be a surprise. Those with huge short-term debt obligations run the risk of not being able to rollover that debt. Banks in the U.S. no longer lend money they just beg the government for more capital. Many of these retailers will not be in business five years from now. Others will need to close hundreds of stores to survive.
BC Bob, Chifi, Kettle,
Is IMF selling shiny out there last few days? if not what’s happening?
Below is an example of a seller in my town that is still in deep denial. Although that antique stove could be worth a foirtune. Notice how it is highlighted in the picture of the kitchen.
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2906668&id=999999
“SOUTH JERSEY HOSPITAL, INC. VINELAND 3/31/2009 123”
When hospitals start laying off, yikes!
Thiddy says:
March 3, 2009 at 9:04 am
Cooper,
Re: #11 – HSBC has not taken any bailout funds from the US or the UK where it is based.
thanks i didn’t know
gary says:
March 3, 2009 at 10:09 am
CNBC just said that according to realtors, housing affordibility is at a record high!
criminals.
how about closing some of these hospitals
confused.
there are some lovely swamps/marshes right around that area. The mosquitoes are so big i thing i saw a serial number and logo on the side of one.
Speaking of lay-offs… There’ve been a bunch up here in hedge fund land in the past week. Almost all of the after hours support, a bunch from networking, and DBAs. You know things are serious when they let DBAs go.
NJ unemployment numbers due out tomorrow afternoon.
[178] galgon,
There aren’t enough of us to make up for all of the alkies foregoing part of their fix.
[179] make,
One thing to consider is if you can produce enough to barter and truck farm. Know those farmers markets in the cities? I foresee profitablity in that model as food prices in the cities, particularly those ill served by markets, will be much higher. So you want enough produce so that you can barter it for other things, or truck it into a farmer’s market closer into the City. Will 10 acres do it? I am not sure.
I once envisioned a plan to turn trucks into mobile mini-markets. You pull it into a vacant city lot at an appointed time, sell to the inner city residents, and then start up and leave. You would literally have someone riding shotgun, so this model was not economically feasible unless there was extreme demand and price disparity, and by that time, it’s all a bit too Mad Max for me.
But this is actually done in DC on a small scale by a fleet of old ice cream trucks that sell dairy and bread in the projects (at a bit of a markup), then they get out of Dodge.
[187] Kettle,
That’s nothing. Once at Loring AFB in Maine, a mosquito landed there and the ground crew put 500 gallons of jet fuel into it before they realized what it was.
U.S. Economic Crisis Replay of Japan’s Lost Decade Depression
* Bond markets are especially overbought and I can’t think of more spectacular profit potential particularly at the long end of the spectrum. The U.S. government may borrow as much as $3 trillion dollars in 2009 alone, and it’s likely rising rates are not far behind.
* The Japanese yen itself seems ripe for a fall, so shorting both the Japanese markets and the yen itself may wind up being an outstanding choice, especially once the reality of falling global demand sets in.
* And, of course, infrastructure. Despite the fact that the world is pulling in its horns, the infrastructure we use is not getting any younger particularly with regard to electricity. Even if expansion plans are put on hold, existing grids will require repair and constant upkeep. The last thing any government will let happen is a complete collapse of the power grid, because it would mean the end of civilization as we know it, thanks to the social chaos that would ensue.
Any idea on simple investment vehicles to play above ideas.
make
i dont know if they have started to dump it yet.
DL re: Bucks County Real Estate:
Absolutely some of the worst kind of denial around here. Listings sit for months with minimal or no price cuts. I’m seeing the largest amt. of weakness in Morrisville, but their taxes are the highest in the county. One listing was initially asking over $350K went back to the mortgage company for $800. How does that happen?
[179] make,
FWIW, a family member is doing exactly that (the house is used as a B&B in these non-meltdown times). She plans to expand her production 3-fold this year. I encouraged her to plow under the horse paddocks and do even more.
“Interesting that an NJ liquor distributor is laying off workers. I would have thought that business would be booming with all you guys stocking up on booze to barter with once the rioting begins.”
Business is booming. That doesn’t mean the distributor can’t trim it’s dead weight as well. In every industry, there are plenty of people that need to be fired. With the economy the way it is, they can use it as the perfect excuse to do so.
when is the state going to layoff employees,,, how about the turnpike authority, and the locals,,
county police,,, water commissions,
#197
And when is the state going to re-visit those pesky pensions?
did someone say pensions?
“Pension bombs going off”
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/cgi-bin/article.pl?articleId=31402
what have i been saying since the bubble blog came online in 05?
keep your eyes on the pension funds!
(also, keep your eyes on Taiwan)
I love CO2
SAS
good post from a blogger from the link:
“Here’s a shocking thought: maybe if management had been planning adequately for their pension funds, instead of raiding them to make their balance sheets look better, none of this would be happening. It’s hardly the fault of the workers that their pension funds are inadequately funded. Or does no one remember who started this economic crisis? Forgetting is convenient when it reinforces your prejudices against the people who actually make the products”
Barbara 78
you mean Ass-bury park?
sl
Pat… wasn’t it you who wrote a long time ago that seeing one (former) troll change his attitude was like watching your child as they learned to walk?
Looks like Frank may be your nouveau belle enfant!
sl
DL says:
March 3, 2009 at 8:33 am
Yikes, ref 19. Thanks. When we return to the U.S. permanently this year we plan to look at Newtown. Doylestown a little too far out from Phila and NJ for us. I assumed offers were below asking but don’t have a feel for how much. 10-15% or more?
depends where and what neighborhood. in the area we bought, there were no foreclosures and no new construction, nor was there a terribly large run-up in the last few years.
i did run into a few clueless realtors, that’s for sure. two awful ones lived in the neighborhood where they worked, and refused to negotiate. fine by me. i moved on.
we met a nice realtor and told her up front that we tracked comps and anytime we wanted info from her (DOM, re-listings, etc) she came through. you can get my email from grim if you want this realtor.
SAS:
I’ve been arguing with the Gator since the early 2000s that the pensions will be straw the breaks the public sector workers’ back. As we have watched property taxes skyrocket, it became extremely clear that at some point things would have to break due to the unsustainable increases levied on the taxpayer. Well it appears that day may finally be here…
sl (202)-
More likely, he’s just taken the first step in a more sophisticated troll.
Stupid is forever.
Mike Morgan, 2-26-09. He’s been on the failed pensions trail for close to two years now:
“My biggest warning to everyone has been the destruction of fiduciary money – pension funds, endowments, trusts, charities, etc. The boys on Wall Street have raped these funds and filled them with junk. Junk in the form of bogus joint ventures, overpriced assets and derivatives that generated huge commissions. As this unfolds, we will enter something akin to anarchy. In fact, we are at the precipice of anarchy right now. Our politicians have joined the Economic Royalists in providing them with the means to rob us blind and leave the world in financial collapse. Moreover, since we are allowing them to keep the money, the same criminals will be the ones to profit from the global financial collapse.”
3b 182
isn’t that Rachel Ray’s signature stove?
sl
Ritholz nails it. It is the compensation structure at these firms which are the issue.
Its fairly well known in the traditional retail investment world that the client and the advisor often have opposing, and sometimes contradictory, interests.
I sometimes forget just how much so in my little world of boutique asset management (We charge about ~1%). A conversation with a couple of brokers from a large firm that I can’t name (hint: Rhymes with Schmerrill) reminded my just how misaligned the incentive system is, and how screwed up it must be to work at a huge, publicly traded, mega asset management firm.
To wit: These two gents guys run a few $100 million dollars in managed accounts. They are mostly stock jockeys, but they have a smattering of bonds as well. Their assets are spread out amongst stocks they selected, in house managers, and other mangers on their firm’s platform. Typically, the clients are charged 1.0-1.25% on their assets. Various products (I hate that word) will pay the broker more or less depending upon the fund manager’s arrangements with the house.
As is typical of brokers with this size asset base and seniority, their payout was about ~43%.
Let’s do some quick math before we get to the heart of the conflict: On $300 million in assets, let’s call it $3.3 million dollars in gross revenue to the firm. That’s about $1.4 million to them, from which they pay a few sales assistants, T&E, etc. Thus, they each should be making about half million dollars annually before Uncle Sam takes his.
Here’s where things get interesting: Early in 2008, they moved aggressively into cash. (Obviously they are TBP readers). For most of the year, they run about 20% bonds, plus 5% percent stocks (some client would not sell). All told, about 75% of their asset base is in money market funds, which pays out essentially nothing to the broker — but preserves the clients investments. Late in the year, they put a toe back in the water.
Overall, the clients do very well. In a year where the markets are practically cut in half, their clients lose about 10%. The investors are ecstatic, and while the two brokers annual compensation was shmeissed — they went from over $3 million gross to under $1 million — they have happy, referral making clients to rebuild their business upon. Its a short term income hit that should generate gains over the long term. And, they got there by doing the right thing.
Now, that drop in income alone raises conflict issues. I tell clients who ask why they are paying 1% to sit in Cash that they are not — they are paying 1% to not be losing 45% in equities, and to have us tell them when to go back into stocks. We think that’s worth 1%, and if you disagree, well talk to your friends who have seen their investments destroyed.
Here’s where things get completely misaligned. When 2009 rolls around, their manager calls them into his office, and says: “Bad news, boys. Your revenues dropped so much last year you are in the Penalty Box. As per your contract, your payout for this year is 30%.”
Let me make sure I understand this: We did the right thing by our clients, and although we took a big short term revenue hit, we hope it pays off over the long run. And the firm response is to drop our payout even further? So the entire system is set up to discourage doing the right thing by the client?
(Hence, why they are talking with us).
We’ve previously discussed the misaligned compensation system of bankers and the short term incentives that led to the entire credit crisis. But did you have any idea that the entire industry was so utterly conflicted?
I find this utterly ridiculous. No wonder we get so many inquiries from (soon-to-be-former) clients of the big houses:They have been cut in half, but at least the firm got its 1% and the broker’s payout remains at 43%.
And that’s all that matters in the end, right?
Franke and Heidecke declare insolvency. Most of you may not care but this is company behind Rollei and the Hy6 system.
I just came up with an estimation of the local property tax burden on my home.
To me, much of the risk in NJ real estate comes from the tax burden associated with becoming a slave to your local and state bureaucracies.
For example, let’s say my property tax will be $10,000 next year. And I expect taxes will increase by 3% per year forever from now. And my discount rate, or the state’s discount rate (i.e. the cost to borrow)is 5%.
All one has to do is plug these into a single stage dividend disccount model (where my tax payment is the dividend to the state, which will be growing at 3% per annum). 10,000 / (5%-3%) = $500,000
My house would probably sell for roughly $500,000 today. But a buyer would also be taking on this obligation with a present value of $500,000.
If the appropriate discount rate is 6%, then the PV falls to $333,333, so the calculation is sensitive to inputs.
In any case, given NJ high property taxes, coupled with their likelihood of growing in the future along with state indebtedness, people may well begin to consider more carefully the implied tax liability attached to their homes. If home prices continue to decline, the tax liability could become a larger obligation than the property purchase value itself!
Anyone care to clarify or challenge?
Clot (206),
Good Stuff.
Pension problem will be solved by default. There is just no way they can tax their way out of it.
Clot, 206
…ugh. Now I wanna go back to bed.
I feel like I’ve become the freak at work who talks about our failed economy and how bad it still has to get before it gets better.
They look at me like I have 2 heads. When the Dow was still in the 7’s, I said it would go to 6’s. On guy (another bear, no less) didn’t think a flat 6 was possible.
I demurred and backpedalled and pronounced my 6500 ceiling and only then got a murmur of agreement.
I almost dared to look at my 401K – that’s even after going to a majority bond split of 70/30 or so last year! and thought better of it.
sl
Kettle1 says:
March 3, 2009 at 11:04 am
Skeptic,
Any free society must accept the fact that terrorist strikes will happen and cannot be stopped. They can be limited if you restrict or remove said freedom, but a motivated individual or group ultimately cannot be stopped from conducting unconventional warfare if they are willing to die in the commission of said act.
i know it wont happen, but a great place to begin is by nuking whatever areas these sick bastards are hiding.
is it wrong of me to say that the world would be a better place without a large portion of the desert where terrorists are hiding?
I have looked at some houses in Westchester that were in the high $600s were the annual tax bill was $20k. The realtors of course insisted that the taxes would go down upon sale, which may be true in certain individual cases, but I find it very hard to believe these municipalities are going to willingly allow their revenue base to shrink in a wholesale manner, esp when they are currently in the red.
All Hype says:
March 3, 2009 at 11:22 am
GE with a 6 handle. I cannot wait to pump them up with gubbmint TARP money.
i’ll bite.
why would we give GE tARp money?
anyone?
#207 still: if you pay full price. I am sure they would probably even throw in the antique funriture too.
It would be perfect in the knotty pine finished basement.
Clot – for as much success as you’ve had in the last couple years with the market … why wouldn’t you take on some clients and make some extra dough on the side?
fwiw, all the free info here is great … and it’s probably why you’re destined for sainthood.
robin clot?
“i’ll bite.
why would we give GE tARp money?
anyone?”
Because they are a bank who pretends to manufacture things.
Obama Says Now May Be a Good Time to Buy Stocks
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNSlj1_eujVo&refer=home
W/R/T pensions, there is a real risk to the pensioners of these companies when the pension is a defined benefit plan. PBGC (an acronym we will hear a lot) doesn’t insure pensions dollar for dollar. They act more like a bankruptcy trustee, get what assets they can from the plan sponsor, and pay out cents on the dollar (maybe a lot of cents, maybe less).
The problem I foresee (beyond the shock wave from implosions) is the fact that the pensioners will start pressuring Congress to make up the difference, and for PBGC, like FDIC, to insure dollar for dollar. That is when the fireworks will start.
As for public pensions, the PBGC doesn’t cover them. Any guesses as to who has to foot that bill?
As this unfolds, we will enter something akin to anarchy. In fact, we are at the precipice of anarchy right now.
i know this is no laughing matter … but Morgan always cracks me up.
i’m going to start applying for jobs that will provide a pension. why not?
[220] he,
“U.S. President Barack Obama said “buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you’ve got a long term perspective.”
Wonder what his idea of long term is. And are those stocks in this country?
And who will buy those stocks? The so-called “rich” that are gonna be footing the bill for everyone else?
Clot-
Bought a bit of MET today, A small bit. think its baby/bathwater situation, even with its current writedowns. We shall see…
[222] yikes
Make sure it is a state or federal pension. It was always my goal to get one of those to make sure that the taxpayers funded me.
O’bama says buy stocks and “magically” people buy stocks?!?!?
Yikes: ref 203; thanks for the offer. I may ask when the time comes. We’ll probably go with a buyer’s agent through USAA. In Newtown there are some foreclosures so maybe the market is softer there.
“PBGC, like FDIC, to insure dollar for dollar. That is when the fireworks will start”
agreed.
thats when the pucker factor will really start to kick in.
SAS
review Argentina crisis of 2001-2002
SAS
PPT is taking care of business and working overtime
hex3 226
he meant for the PPT to buy stocks…as perhaps they are back from vacation.
interesting times we live in…
sl
Yeah, complete market manipulation. I wouldn’t be surprised if Gordon Brown’s got his own English PPT manipulating away as well.
SL..troll children.
I thought that was some OTHER Frank.
Yes, I get chills. The hair stands up on the back of my neck, and I softly wipe away a single tear with the back of my hand.
Stu Re Pensions –
Pensions themselves are not the fundamental problem. My company has a pension plan – what we don’t have is the ability to abuse the system like NJ state workers can. There’s no tacking or double dipping adding to the costs here.
Our employees have to both put in 35 years of service and retire at 65 in order to get the highest monthly payout and company subsidized healthcare in retirement. Public pensions often allow for a much earlier retirement date. I believe in NJ you can retire at 55 or 60 depending on what pension fund you belong to.
In my company, you have 1,000 hours of service during the year in order to get any service credit for the year– none of this NJ style earn $1500 and get the same year’s credit as someone who works full-time cr*p. Our monthly payouts are also based on a 5 year average instead of a 3 – so there’s no work 5 hours/week for 20 years, then work a “full-time” patronage job for 3 years and then collect a pension based solely on the full-time salary.
We also don’t get to pad our wages and service credits with over-time payments or multiple jobs.
We also have a much more mobile workforce. I suspect that a much lower percentage of our employees stay long enough to vest in their pension benefits than government workers who are likely to remain in state employment for their entire careers.
Perhaps if the state pension system eliminated the more egregious loopholes and were funded appropriately there would be a way to provide retirement security for employees without breaking the bank.
Here are Gator’s suggestions for reforming the NJ Pension System:
No benefits for part-time workers – there should be a minimum hours of service requirement instead of a salary threshold.
Only one position at a time can be counted towards service credits or provide benefits.
No benefits for people who are not civil service employees – i.e. eliminate pension benefits for part time mayors, legislators and political appointees who only serve for a few short years max. It’s ridiculous that part-time municipal court judges and attorneys get pension credit for multiple part time positions while still maintaining private law practices. Go look up the highest pensions values in the public employee databases – these guys tend to out-earn even the overpaid school administrators.
Retirement age should increase to 65, except for firefighters and police officers.
No health benefits in retirement unless you have 20+ years of service credit and retire at normal retirement age.
Salary basis for pension calculations should be based at a minimum on the 5 highest consecutive years of earning (increase from current 3). Over-time payments should not be part of pension calculations.
That’s my 2 cents anyways.
You ever notice the PPT shenanigans always seems to be happening around 2:30?
Shorthills (50),
Cranford is a decent town, decent schools. Some sections are more expensive than others. NJT buses there go to Midtown-NYC. Union County Community College is located in Cranford, so you might want to check the traffic/parking issues for that area. Nomehegan Park is nice, especially if you have kids. The center of Cranford has a couple of nice restaurants and a movie theater. My impression is that Cranford is a Westfield-wannabe. Cranford is not next to Union but next to Kenilworth, which IMO is more blue-collar/working class than Cranford. Just my opinion.
“You ever notice the PPT shenanigans always seems to be happening around 2:30?”
– That is tea time during cricket matches.
You guys and your PPT allegations. The DJIA has dropped from 9300 to 6700 in a little over two months and the market gains 2% off the bottom and so many here attribute it to the PPT.
Perhaps it is as simple as bargain hunters entering the market?
You guys are way too conspiracy-crazed for my liking.
Hey , why all the doom? Re is going to be blowing up in a decade or so…
http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2009/03/02/02climatewire-facing-the-specter-of-the-globes-biggest-and–9919.html
Victorian says:
March 3, 2009 at 1:58 pm
Vic: not to be a naysayer; however, can your recruitees back up those claims with evidence?
Sounds like a sophisticated spin story to me….are you sure that you aren’t being played?
Stu,
Ugh huh. Bargain hunters, all together, at 2:30, a few minutes after the Pres says nows a good time to buy stocks, ugh huh, hmmm, hmmm
“Perhaps it is as simple as bargain hunters entering the market?”
-Exactly, all the bots are beginning to kick in based on oversold short term indicators.
The PPT should actually change its name to Plunge Precipitation Team.
[239] Kettle,
That is another reason that the Poconos are a good choice for a nompound:
In 60 years, it might be beachfront property.
The Internal Revenue Service today released the winter 2009 issue of the Statistics of Income Bulletin, which features information on 138.4 million individual income tax returns filed for tax year 2006.
Taxpayers in the top 1 percent of adjusted gross income reported adjusted gross income of at least $388,806 in tax year 2006. This group accounted for 22.1 percent of all adjusted gross income for 2006, up 0.9 percentage points from the prior year. This group also accounted for 39.9 percent of the total income tax reported, an increase from 39.4 percent in 2005.
Taxpayers in the top 5 percent of adjusted gross income reported adjusted gross income of at least $153,542. This group accounted for 36.7 percent of adjusted gross income and 60.1 percent of total income tax.
[236] pattimak,
Cranford is definitely a Westfield wannabe but I think that the only thing it lacks that Westfield has is an attitude (and I chose Westfield because it wasn’t nearly as attitudinal as Summit). I like Nomahegan and the canal (Westfield has no similar amenities) and its’s downtown, while not as tony, is still on par.
UCC has its own parking, and a separate entrance in Westfield, so traffic isn’t a concern.
Westfield has good schools (supposedly) but I think that they are crowded, and with the focus on schools in Westfield (and a very high percentage of families with school age kids), you will certainly be tax slaves for the “its for the kids” crowd.
[244] SC
Can you provide a link? Certain lurkers on this board think that those statistics are made up (probably by the nimble, well-organized, and focused Vast Right Wing Conspiracy).
Chi (240) –
Flattered that you would consider me as an asset manager :). But, it is not my story.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/big-firm-conflict-of-interest-the-penalty-box/
And, he does say in the comments that he verified with brokers at other large firms. FWIW.
Why do you think the story rings alarm bells? I would think there are a few good men out there.
shawthills[50]
my 2 coins on Cranford. Agree its a Westfield wannabe. Def. have to get someone to give you straight talk on which areas are flood-prone. If you are there for the next 30 years, chances are decent you will endure at least one major flood.
I think its the Roselle/Roselle Park border that give most people grief. I don’t really see why. I mean, Maplewood borders Irvington and its Utopia. (In case the sarcasm is unclear, Roselle is no Irvington).
Cranford is definitely on my list of potential towns to live in. Decent school system, small but legit downtown. No midtown direct train which is a sticking point for me but I know people who like the bus service.
Its a far cry from Short Hills though. If you are renting and like where you are, just keep renting in SH. If overpriced homes are going quickly, take it as in indicator of the type of person moving into town. They are not readers of the blog I guess. Or newspapers. Just the Sue Adler report.
(246) IRS website.
Hopefully this works…
http://www.irs.gov/taxstats/article/0,,id=204749,00.html
HEHEHE:
“Ugh huh. Bargain hunters, all together, at 2:30, a few minutes after the Pres says nows a good time to buy stocks, ugh huh, hmmm, hmmm”
If you truly believe that the PPT involves a group of people getting together to come to the consensus of having the president utter the words, “buy stocks!” Then I disagree with you.
Of course, I respect your decision, but have been around way too long to think that the government manipulates the markets to the tune of 1 or 2% gains after letting it drop 50%.
Just my opinion, of course.
HEHEHE –
If you believe in the PPT buying stocks @ 2.30, why not buy at 2.29 and make some money off of it?
make money says:
March 3, 2009 at 12:45 pm
BC Bob, Chifi, Kettle,
Is IMF selling shiny out there last few days? if not what’s happening?
make: shiny is strongly a technical trade; it hit resistance and backed-off; it is a crowded trade as everyone with even a thought about what is happening was in the trade; the fundamental piece regards inflation – from that perspective, I think people in the short-term are more worried about DEflation; your investment thesis still holds weight (no pun intended) although your asset allocation appears to be affected by that turbo diesel anal vibrator you are using….it should notsurprise you if shiny goes 4 figures again or starts with a 7……if Bost said take some off, then I think you should have followed the man….
Corzine may raise income taxes for N.J.’s wealthiest
by Claire Heininger/The Star-Ledger
Monday March 02, 2009, 8:06 PM
Gov. Jon Corzine is considering raising income taxes on New Jersey’s wealthiest residents, a wage freeze and 12-day furlough for state workers, and increases in the cigarette, wine and liquor taxes, according to people familiar with budget negotiations.
I’m sure this has been covered. But wtf?
why aren’t people either doing something about this or getting the heck out of dodge?
comrade nom deplume says:
March 3, 2009 at 2:20 pm
[222] yikes
Make sure it is a state or federal pension. It was always my goal to get one of those to make sure that the taxpayers funded me.
relative has a sweet, sweet federal pension coming their way later this year.
I’ll probably have to settle for state, if i can get a gig that cushy.
Victorian says:
March 3, 2009 at 3:02 pm
Chi (240) – Flattered that you would consider me as an asset manager :). But, it is not my story. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/big-firm-conflict-of-interest-the-penalty-box/
And, he does say in the comments that he verified with brokers at other large firms. FWIW. Why do you think the story rings alarm bells? I would think there are a few good men out there.
Vic: because those guys are $(@_$@*$_@$*_
It’s like working for the mob and you start complaining that your boss is underpaying you because you haven’t extorted people as aggressively during the recession as you are interesting in the long-term view. Now you are looking for a new job. It is possible? sure…does it sound fcuked? yes
grim: I lost an entire post to the ether….I was giving my opinion on shiny to albani, but I used a reference to an anal v!brator…can you find the post anywhere?
Let see if this works?
make money says:
March 3, 2009 at 12:45 pm
BC Bob, Chifi, Kettle,
Is IMF selling shiny out there last few days? if not what’s happening?
make: shiny is strongly a technical trade; it hit resistance and backed-off; it is a crowded trade as everyone with even a thought about what is happening was in the trade; the fundamental piece regards inflation – from that perspective, I think people in the short-term are more worried about DEflation; your investment thesis still holds weight (no pun intended) although your asset allocation appears to be affected by that turbo diesel an-l v!brator you are using….it should notsurprise you if shiny goes 4 figures again or starts with a 7……if Bost said take some off, then I think you should have followed the man….
yikes 252
the population stats seem to suggest that the people with money are getting out of dodge
So you are saying there is no PPT and the government does nothing to manipulate the stock market?
Obama: Stock ‘fits and starts’ are normal reaction
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D96MMP3O3&show_article=1
I think ignoring day-to-day is a good idea. Not longer though because he will soon be bailing out the retirees.
to Yikes..just a few questions on your recent move. When you bought, did you already live in PA? or did you move from NJ? I have heard if you sell an home in NJ and move to PA you pay a fee, or is that also if your are not a homeowner? What about working in NJ but living in PA…does it cost you anything incremental?
thanks in advance
3b – #182
that vintage piece of 50’s memorabilia (the house, not just the stove), should be like $300k max..
Ladies and gents,
Market is now open for trading.
S&P downgrading BAC, outlook negative….
…. that’s some fine rating work there S&P.
Clicky for BAC downgrade.
HEHEHE:
“So you are saying there is no PPT and the government does nothing to manipulate the stock market?”
That is not my opinion at all. Everything Bernanke and Geitner does is in an attempt to raise market prices. IMO, this is not manipulation unless they are purposely lying. Unfortunately, I hardly believe that anyone trusts a word that either of the clowns utter, hence they are mostly powerless to manipulate.
House Hunter says:
March 3, 2009 at 3:27 pm
to Yikes..just a few questions on your recent move. When you bought, did you already live in PA? or did you move from NJ? I have heard if you sell an home in NJ and move to PA you pay a fee, or is that also if your are not a homeowner? What about working in NJ but living in PA…does it cost you anything incremental?
thanks in advance
1) never had lived here in our lives. were living in brooklyn. had looked at buying in NJ in 06/07 and the taxes scared us off. decided to skip all the way out to Bucks County, where schools are (depending who you talk) as good as NJ, and taxes are half.
2) wife is in pharma, territory is NJ. doesn’t love the hike, obviously – usually 90 mins to get where she wants to go in NJ – but the company pays gas and car allowance, plus no office to report to (you know how that works). i work from home (own business).
realtor has talked about working with families from NJ making the move. we are less than 10 miles from the NJ border. NYC is 90 mins (by car), and philly is 40 mins by car.
new neighbor works in NYC but haven’t talked to him yet.
hope this doesn’t sound like im giving PA the ‘hard sell’ – i feel where to live is a case-by-case basis. can you deal with a commute? how much land do you want? are taxes important? that kind of thing.
(i am pleased to report in the 11 months we’ve been out here, i have NOT been to wal-mart, have only driven by 2, and there isn’t one in a 15 mile radius.)
#257
Seems to me that unless you have a job that’s portable you can’t really just move out of NJ right now. I guess one could move to PA, but it would depend on where in NJ you work. My spouse and I wouldn’t mind pulling up stakes and relocating but looking for a new job for him now isn’t really an option. He is sticking with the job he has. A lot of us kind of feel stuck here for awhile.
HEHEHE says:
March 3, 2009 at 3:17 pm
So you are saying there is no PPT and the government does nothing to manipulate the stock market?
He: I’m with Stu completely….maybe elsewhere, but stocks? This market is so oversold on a stright down drop, just a short covering can cause I friggin’ whollop…be serious…
i should add that 90 mins to NYC is NOT during rush hour.
when i have to go, i usually leave at off hours to avoid the B&T delays. i have left at 10 am and been in at 1130, for instance.
[253] yikes
If Corzine raises taxes on the Wealthy, that can only help Bucks County, because of the NJ-PA tax compact.
If you live in PA, no worries, even if you work in NJ. If you live in NJ, “move” to PA for awhile (have a friend or relative agree to be a mail drop and get a PA driver’s license. Re-registering car in PA is risky however since that could be seen as insurance fraud).
Ok. You convinced me.
“That is not my opinion at all. Everything Bernanke and Geitner does is in an attempt to raise market prices. IMO, this is not manipulation unless they are purposely lying. Unfortunately, I hardly believe that anyone trusts a word that either of the clowns utter, hence they are mostly powerless to manipulate.”
I would counter that Obama went on TV and proclaimed that we would have another great depression unless we passed his 800 billion dollar stimulus package. Regardless of what some people do, the current administration loves the market tanking because every time it does, they can spend more money on themselves. Political greed is now trumping the problem we had from corporate greed.
“Guess they are gonna have to learn, just like the rest of us did.”
Comrade, far be it from me to stick up for my elders…. but I have to say there are quite a few older boomers that have a realistic take on things. Any of you “younger somethings” need to listen to some of them-they have seen a thing or two…..1970’s was not a cake walk. They were raised frugally by harda$$ parents……..
I think the misunderstanding has come from some idea that this country had streets paved with gold and money trees planted everywhere….
Can someone give me the address for MLS ID #2647719 in Pequannock? Thanks
yikes (214)-
Turn it into a giant parking lot. Then, ship all the cars that will never, ever sell to rot in the sun there.
yikes (218)-
I am not a licensed investment advisor.
However, I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night…
Public pensions – do the state, county and municipal employees realize that their pensions are not guaranteed by the PBGC? As I understand it, there is no safety net for public employees – if their plan goes bust, oh well.
HE (226)-
Ladies and gentlemen, the Shill-in-Chief.
“O’bama says buy stocks and “magically” people buy stocks?!?!?”
#262 ricky:that vintage piece of 50’s memorabilia (the house, not just the stove), should be like $300k max..
Agreed, it is not worth a penny more.
Bernanke finally admitted to Congress that AIG is a large Non Regulated Hedge Fund linked to an Insurance Company. Guess like his predecessor Alan G. in the last 2xxx downturn, he’s the champion of Hedge Funds. No one will admit that unlike the S&L crisis, the US is attempting to keep whole Global Interests with Domestic Dollars, which is impossible. Only hope now is to replace “O” with Chavez and Nationalize everything and Default on everyone.
Missed the earlier discussion on vacations… I just booked our Easter Break yesterday. Continental Non-Stop EWR-Zurich April 9-20 for $390 all in. Maybe some glacier skiing around Zermatt and then we’ll rent a house on Lake Como; there are some amazing bargains on VRBO. Although I don’t like to see others suffer, we sure love the travel bargains when the economy tanks. Our best post 9/11 deal: buy two AA R/T’s to Cali and get a voucher for a free R/T anywhere AA flies. We paid $175 for each of the Cali trips (they were price matching JetBlue at the time) and then we used the vouchers for Buenos Aires. So we paid $1,400 to take a family of four to Cali twice and then Buenos Aires. It was actually better than that since we took a voluntary bump on one of the Cali flights and got $1600 in AA vouchers. With this economy, I think it won’t be long before the airlines roll out some desperate deals again…
Trillion Dollar Public Pension Fund Bailout Coming Due
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=alwTE0Z5.1EA&refer=home
someone has figured out how to keep selling cars:
“Hyundai Motor Co., South Korea’s largest automaker, said it sold 30,621 vehicles last month, a 1.5 percent decline from a year earlier. In January, Seoul-based Hyundai was the sole major automaker to post a gain in U.S. sales.”
is it time to bring in robocop in baltimore?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/27/AR2009022703591.html?referrer%3Demailarticle&sub=AR
written by the guy who created ‘the wire’
sounds like b’more is a massive dump, more foul than newark and trenton combined
sounds like b’more is a massive dump, more foul than newark and trenton combined.
________________________________________
My sister used to live in the nicest part of Baltimore. Lots of Johns Hoplkins Drs, etc. It was surrounded by a war zone. She used to hide under her covers when she heard the police shootouts. One time we drove through west Baltimore to get out of town and it would make Camden look like Upper Montclair. Never seen a hood like that ever! People in the hood of Trenton would be afraid of West Baltimore!
RE: 282 Curmudgeon
Zermatt’s ski installations are undergoing a renovation, or at least were, check ahead and verify via phone as you may find key lifts are closed. Just getting up on Klein-Matterhorn takes over an hour if there are crowds. Zermatt is more of an experience and really out of the way as you have to drive northeast past Sion down the corridor. Other areas in the vicinity include Saas-Fee and Crans Montana. Saas is always cloudy due to the topograpy. Stay away from Crans is you have agoraphobia.
I highly recommend Verbier which is a bit northwest of Geneva. Good skiing, off piste terrain and a good town scene. Verbier is close to Montreux which is a great daytrip from Geneva and Zurich even. The walk by the lake can’t be beat and there’s a fairly large castle at the end of the lakeside boardwalk (Chateau De Chillion) which can (and should!) be toured.
Side note: Montreux has a big statue of Freddy Mercury and the song “Smoke On the Water” was penned there during the casino fires.
Heading to St. Maarten on the cheap as well. I like you, can’t wait for capitulation deals.
Sorry for the OT post.
[285] yikes
Baltimore is a pit. Maryland is like PA. You have two deeply depressed slumlike urban areas controlling what is otherwise a largely rural state. The difference is, in Maryland, the balance of power isn’t much of a balance as the slum residents far outnumber the rural ones. At least in PA, Pittsburgh sides as much with the Conservative T as it does with Philadelphia.
Regarding Corzine’s income tax surcharge on the wealthy. Question for the board, does $250,000 a year for a household make that family “wealthy”?
“The possible increase on the wealthy would impose a 5 percent surcharge on the taxes paid by residents with incomes of $250,000 or higher.”
OK, you wanna tax HHs earning 250k+, that is fine. But please, let’s not call those HHs “wealthy” here in the Garden State. I know plenty of people who earn at or just above that threshold and none of them are wealthy in the “abundance of riches” sort of way.
Agree/disagree?
Ref 282. If you stay in Montreaux consider skiing at Portes de Soleil. You can ski the border regiuon between Switzerland and France, the food is great and if you have the legs, you can ski the Swiss Wall (aka Wall of Death). It’s not an official run but anyone who wants bragging rights does it, Otherise you have to ride the chair down. They also make snow so you can ski to the valley which is also nice. Personally, I liked Crans. Verbier is the best though. To get to the black runs on Mont Fort you need to buy an extra lift ticket to prove you haven’t ended up there by accident. Ski Heil!
#282With this economy, I think it won’t be long before the airlines roll out some desperate deals again…
And the cruise lines.
The public pension issue has been boiling over within the NJ AFL-CIO for about 5 years. It’s headed for an all out war between the public and private unions. Basically, the private unions have argued that the public pensions are completely unsustainable and they that their members (as taxpayers..) refuse to support the growing gap between public and private. Every statewide meeting for years has featured
“rather spirited” debate on this topic. I personally live in a town that underpays teachers and town administrators so I don’t see any problem with their packages. (Teachers love our school so dearly that they always roll over in negotiations- it’s a rare situation!) Unfortunately, Barney Fife directing traffic in front of the school makes $100,000 and will probably take a disability pension at age 39. That pension will pay him at least 65% of his final salary with lifetime medical. That, my friends, is ludicrous…
Seneca (289)
I totally agree. In NJ,”wealthy” would not be the word I would use to describe families earning gross at or around $250k. Perhaps, “comfortable” or “above average.”
Curious why Camden County so low.