Weekend Open Discussion

This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

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253 Responses to Weekend Open Discussion

  1. grim says:

    NJ goes to the Federal trough to borrow the funds to pay state unemployment.

    From the Star Ledger:

    N.J. is first to qualify for federal funds for unemployment

    New Jersey is the first state to qualify for federal funds to shore up its unemployment benefits.

    U.S. Labor Secretary Hilda Solis announced today that New Jersey will receive nearly $207 million in federal stimulus money.

    New Jersey is one of 14 states that have had to borrow from the federal government to pay unemployment claims. New Jersey began borrowing from the feds this month when the state fund ran out of money.

  2. 2010 Buyer says:

    Old news, nothing new here

    Credit Card Crunch: Creating a New Generation of Subprime

    We’re here to point out a potential unforeseen consequence of credit cards as the next credit crunch. The developments of credit card companies raising interest rates, cutting credit lines, and closing inactive accounts altogether has many consequences: Firstly, and most obviously, consumer confidence and consumer spending will drop off. Secondly, as such, the economy as a whole will continue to suffer. Lastly, and most unforeseen, FICO (credit) scores most likely will be reduced and millions of American consumers will essentially be ‘downgraded’ by way of their new, lower credit scores, further inhibiting their access to future credit.


  3. HEHEHE says:

    Solutions That Aren’t the Answer
    One argument that some have made in response to my less-than-optimistic outlook is that humans are creative and resourceful. In principle, I can’t disagree. But not all of the “solutions” that people come up with when they are faced with serious challenges are for the greater good; they can also have negative consequences for others. In fact, while certain remedies can address the more pressing concerns, they may do little to eliminate the root causes of a problem. In my view, the following two reports detail ad hoc “solutions” that haven’t really solved anything.


  4. skep-tic says:

    there was a question on a prior thread about why $600k house sales remain relatively strong.

    As I think about it more, there may be a couple of reasons. #1, low downpayment financing is still available in this price point via FHA. Starting at about $750k you really enter a no-man’s land because you need a jumbo, which will require at least 20% down. As I look at listings, I really do not understand why a seller who is just over the line into jumbo territory continues to list at this price. It is a failure of their agent to understand the current market, IMO. The difference between $700k and $750k is particularly huge right now.

    Second reason is because there is likely an amount of pent up demand in the $600k range from households that have a couple of good jobs but for whom this sort of house (formerly priced above $700k in many cases) was just out of reach. These people think they are getting a bargain compared to the bubble peak.

  5. safeashouses says:


    Nice to see NJ is a trailblazer.

  6. safeashouses says:

    #30 bc bob (previous thread)

    That’s me. Changed my handle a month or so ago.

  7. PA Bound says:

    Someone asked about this yesterday…

    Cameras to Catch Speeders and Scofflaws Are Spreading — And Sparking Road Rage


  8. BC Bob says:

    Can we import this guy? I’d luv to watch him drill the puppets in DC.


  9. Stu says:

    My latest letter to the Montclair Watercooler:

    “According to the most recent issue of the Montclair Times, the cost of the installations to obtain the quiet zone has now increased to $1,000,000 from the originally estimated $700,0000. This does not include the cost for the ‘so-called expert’ consultant who Montclair hired to help us through this process. Also ignored is the additional annual cost for the maintenance of these modernized grade crossings. Then there is the cost overruns typically associated with almost all Montclair construction projects. Finally, the ‘updated’ plans must still pass federal muster, which means there is still a chance this will cost us even more still.

    Why does it seem that almost every project the town embarks upon comes in way over the original estimated price? Even more disturbing to me is how significantly these dollar amounts tend to increase from the time the ordinance is first heard to the time it is actually put into effect.

    Over a year ago, I argued that this quiet zone would cost us between 1 and 2 million dollars. I determined this by performing about 15 minutes of research at the Federal Railway Administration’s website. Repeatedly, the proponents of the Quiet Zone argued with me that it would be cost significantly less, after all, the consultant said so.

    I know that there are bigger fish to fry when it comes to controlling our town’s spending, but as I struggle to make ends meet through this economic downturn, I just wish the town would occasionally say no to every costly request made by it’s residents.”

  10. safeashouses says:

    # PA bound

    That was me.

    I wasn’t being paranoid then when I saw what looked like an unmarked police car with 2 rear facing cameras on the trunk driving in the fastlane on 287 last week.

  11. yikes says:

    well, this is pretty awful


    The setting is Pennsylvania coal country, but it’s a story right out of Dickens’ grim 19th-century landscape: Two of Luzerne County’s most senior judges on Monday were accused of sending children to jail in return for kickbacks.

    The judges, Luzerne County President Judge Mark A. Ciavarella Jr., 58, and his predecessor, Senior Judge Michael T. Conahan, 56, will serve seven years in jail under a plea agreement.

  12. Frank says:

    “N.Y.C. jobless rate hit 8.1 percent in February”

    Lets not forget that 91.9% still have a job.

  13. BC Bob says:

    Bairen [8],

    Why the change? What’s wrong with Bairen?

  14. BC Bob says:

    “Lets not forget that 91.9% still have a job”


    Nice try. Go take a look at U-6.

  15. sas says:

    “Cuomo Expands AIG Bonus Probe With Subpoena of Data on Swaps”


  16. BC Bob says:

    “The question is whether the contracts are being wound down properly and efficiently or whether they have become a vehicle for funneling billions in taxpayer dollars to capitalize banks all over the world.”

    SAS [18],

    From the article. A question? HAH, HAH.

  17. Sastry says:

    Cuomo’s star is rising, just as fast as Spitzer’s had risen. I hope he has no big secrets or weaknesses.


  18. 2 Cents says:

    Any doubts for whom Obama is batting for?

    Obama Backs Banks, Seeks to Block Fair-Lending Probe

    “The administration late yesterday urged the U.S. Supreme Court to bar New York and other states from enforcing their fair-lending and other consumer-protection laws against federally chartered banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co.

    The legal brief, which adopts the Bush administration’s position, is a setback for consumer and civil-rights groups that had urged President Barack Obama’s team to switch positions. The filing puts the administration at odds with New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo over the respective roles of state and federal regulators. The high court will hear arguments April 28. ”


  19. 3b says:

    Price Reductions in a Blue ribbon, Beregn co train town, it is happening do not miss out.
    gary do not miss out.

    You have seen this wonderful classic colonial home before, get now for 50k less than it was last Friday!!!

    Original price 579k
    New improved price 529K

    Yes, Yes the antique stove is still included!!!


  20. 2 Cents says:

    Any talk about Soc1alism is just nonsense, this is just plain and simple corporate kleptocracy.

  21. Raul V says:


    Even Superman had a weakness! LOL

  22. 3b says:

    A 30k price decrease in 1 week!!! Here are the big declines you greddy buyers have been waiting for.


  23. 3b says:

    I know, I know, you have all seen this truly unique house before. Pride od craftsmanship abounds!

    But even better a 20k price decrease in 1 week!!

    John is not around, but gary you could make this yours today.


  24. Shore Guy says:


    Here is one more reason not to go to law school:


  25. bi says:

    20#, sastry, i do hope he has some big secrets as client #5.
    imagine you are one of current AIG employee who was asked to stay to unwound these complex positions and have been worked 12 hours a day and agreed to be paid little at front but with lump sum payments until certain day and then you are threatened to return your money or get your name published to mobs

    > Cuomo’s star is rising, just as fast as Spitzer’s had risen. I hope he has no big secrets or weaknesses.


  26. chicagofinance says:

    2 Cents says:
    March 27, 2009 at 11:49 am
    “Especially when the market rallies on no noticeable change in its underlying earnings…right?” tu –
    I think it was Jeremy Grantham (or maybe Richard Russel) who said that, in a bear market the one who loses the least is the winner.

    2 & Stu: ceteris parabus, if interest rates drop then the PV of future earnings is greater…..YES?

  27. comrade nom deplume says:

    [141] sastry, prior thread

    “My impression (I am ready to stand corrected) is that if you have carry over losses and unrealized gains, you can “realize” your gains without wash rule, right?

    Conversely, you cannot “carry over” your gains (as Bi seems to be implying — taking current losses against previous gains, which have already passed. Furthermore, the losses would be subject to wash sale rule, right?)”

    sorry, had a bit of trouble with your syntax earlier.

    Losses for individuals are limited and can be carried forward. They cannot generally be carried back, though there are, from time to time, exceptions, but they are very limited and I doubt that is what bi meant. Businesses can carry back NOLs for a limited period, so if bi is discussing a business, then yes, you can apply a current NOL to a prior year gain. The rationale is that businesses are usually (and in the case of corporations, mandatory) on accrual basis; individuals never are, so they don’t need the benefit of a carryback.

    Gains are not carried forward or back. There can be “unrealized” gains but they are disregarded for tax purposes. Once realized, they are generally recognized in the year of receipt (I say generally because there are exceptions I won’t get into here, such as installment sales or carryforwards in extremely limited instances). Gains can be offset with current year or carryforward losses. If a gain is carried back, I posit that it should have been recognized in the prior year, so it isn’t a true carryback.

    Wash sale rules are different. While the wash sale rule may apply to a carryforward or back, I am not going to get into that exercise right now.

    Hope this helps.

  28. zieba says:

    It’s amazing to see how old and run down some of these places look when you get past the new siding and exterior appearance. The dated furniture, the old paint, the wood paneling…and then you glance at the price and think to yourself “WTF?!”

    Some of these environments are downright depressing to live in. No wonder these people are delusional, they’re stuck in a time warp.

  29. comrade nom deplume says:

    [21] 2 cent

    He is going to bat for the agencies and the constitution. This goes to the supremacy clause, and is an issue that the states and feds have been fighting ever since McCullough v. Maryland was penned by Chief Justice Marshall.

  30. Stu says:


    At first I balked at the price of the home you just posted, but one must look carefully to find the hidden value.

    It appears this home is really quite unique. The future owner will have the ability to move their bowels and their wet laundry to the dryer simultaneously!


  31. 2 Cents says:

    Chi (26) –

    “ceteris parabus”

    But, can you honestly say that all others are going to be equal from this point onward?
    Where is the demand?

  32. 2 Cents says:

    “all others” = all other factors

  33. Sastry says:

    #31… My story is simple. I’ve only had losses :)


  34. Painhrtz says:

    Stu always a personal favorite, commode in the laundry room. Nothing speaks of wealth like leaving the fresh clean smell of newly evacuated feces on clean laundry.

    Every time I see a crapper in the laundry room two thoughts.

    1. how lazy are you?
    2. Why? see above statement for justification.

  35. grim says:


    No no no, I just want the JD.

  36. comrade nom deplume says:

    [36] sastry

    Then you get to carry them forward.

    If you believe that the One has a firm handle on the economy, and we will spend our way to prosperity soon, you will have capital gains and can offset them with losses, and take additional losses up to 3K per year.

  37. Stu says:


    “2 & Stu: ceteris parabus, if interest rates drop then the PV of future earnings is greater…..YES?”

    Haven’t heard someone mention PV in so long, I had to look it up.

    To answer your question, yes! But how reliable are your future earnings when hyperinflation could turn your Civic into an Edsel?

  38. Sastry says:

    #37… I know townhomes in Plainsboro that have the washer/dryer laundry room in a closet of the half bath. You get into the half bath, then open a door to get to the washing machine.

    I don’t know if that fits your description — a poor design though.


  39. HEHEHE says:

    “Cuomo’s star is rising, just as fast as Spitzer’s had risen. I hope he has no big secrets or weaknesses.”

    Other than his good looks?

  40. comrade nom deplume says:

    We didn’t get a mention. Personally, I’m sad for Grim.

    Six Bloggers of the Apocalypse


  41. Sastry says:


    I’m doing 3k a year for *ever*…


  42. Stu says:

    “3k a year for *ever”

    I bet 99% of the population is.

  43. Nicholas says:

    I got a question that I would open up for interpretation…

    My brother and his wife (I have a big family) took over the finances for my aging mother. She doesn’t work and receives minimal benefits from the government. Her main source of income is direct contributions from her sons and daughters. I contribute monthly to support my mother.

    This brother works as a painter and work has been really slow for the last 10 months and it was a very tough winter for him. He has three kids, one in college. He asked my mother to borrow some money and when she said yes he made a withdraw from her account to pay his own bills without notifying anyone else in the family.

    I’m currently getting more and more pissed over the situation and it is begining to keep me awake at night. I’m about to stop my family contribution to my mother and shred my brother in front of the rest of the family because I think that he had no right to ask her for a loan.

    I realize that “punishing” my mother over her good nature isn’t a smart idea. What are your thoughts?

  44. Stu says:

    Dear Nicholas,

    I would tell your brother to buy some SRS.

    Seriously, I would ask your mother to remove your brother’s name from her signature card on her savings account until the loan is paid back. If she refuses, then tell her that you will not pay her support until he pays the loan back. It then becomes her decision to make your brother pay the ill-begotten loan back and it should keep her from providing additional loans to your brother int he future. It should also remove the guilt you feel that is keeping you up at night.

    I would also tell your mother to buy some SRS as well ;)

  45. Stu says:

    “The stock market recently retreated to fresh session lows after being undercut by rather downbeat comments from JPMorgan Chase (JPM 27.84, -1.26) chief exectutive Jamie Dimon. Dimon stated in a CNBC interview that March has been a little tougher than prior months, though he made no mention of profitability. The company had previously indicated that it was profitable in the first two months of the year.”

    Hmmm. Were they really profitable?

  46. kettle1 says:


    have dealt with a somewhat similar situation myself. My approach was not to “punish” the offender, but to have a family discussion making it clear that (in your case) mom has no money hence you cannot borrow it from her. if someone needs help then talk to the rest of the family instead of backdooring it.

    attempting to “punish” a family member is a great way to start a family feud. be firm but not vindictive.

    just my worthless opinion.

  47. 3b says:

    #33 stu: You see Stu, you can appreciate the wnonderful attributes of this fabulous home. And you have a keen eye,with an attention to detail.

    And just think you can take care of 2 chores at the same time!!

  48. bklynhawk says:

    Still haven’t been able to completely understand that in NJ homes. Have never seen it before in my life.

    My personal theory is it might have carried over from tenements, old plumbing building norms that progressed to a cheap way for a builder to include a washer hookup without running any lengthy piping. Because some of the houses I’ve seen this in have plenty of room for another laundry area.

    I’ve lived and visited relatives in many areas of the country and this is not something you see typically anywhere else.

  49. HEHEHE says:

    I am SHOCKED, SHOCKED by Mr Dimon’s statement;)

    Clot this can mark the beginning of the DUMP side of the PUMP.

  50. ruggles says:

    In Europe, they put the washer in the kitchen and the dryer on a line outside the window. so a laundry in a half bath would be fine with me. mine’s in the basement.

  51. 3b says:

    351 I have seen toilets in basements, with no hand sink!!.

    They have been described as 1/4 bath’s

  52. Sean says:

    Nicholas – if it was my brother I would beat him silly with a rubber hose.

    Seroiusly, there have been quite a few stories in the news of children who have borrowed and bankrupted their elderly parents to the point of foreclosure and homelessness.

    The fact that your brother cannot stretch his own credit to “pay some bills” speaks volumes. I would get him off of the signature card for the accounts and make sure he has not taken out a lien on her property, I would also advise said brother to get another job since the painting business is going to be dead for allot longer than your brother can stay out of your mother’s wallet.

  53. 3b says:

    #53 ruggles; yeah but they don’t bathe on a regualr basis in Europe either.

  54. Shore Guy says:

    Fess-up Grim, you just want an invite from Playboy.

  55. bi says:

    52#, clot has only one strategy: double down.
    seriously, i see your desperation. when these guys said they were making money in the first two months you didn’t believe them. now you believe him since he said this month has not been as good as first 2. you believe what you want to believe. a lot of folks here has bad habits: they entered a position and then search the web trying to find somthing supporting their betting. you should try to find something AGAINST your bet.

    To me, this is a typical technique CEOs down-play the expectations before earnings. they want to have positive surprise rather than negative one.
    Anyone who has half brain will tell you how come the month of march will be worse than first 2 months when the stock market has biggest rally since 1974.

  56. Stu says:

    “351 I have seen toilets in basements, with no hand sink!!.”

    Welcome to my multi. I did find a sink that would pass code to fit in the broom closet aka bathroom though.


    Ain’t she a beaut.

  57. BC Bob says:

    “they entered a position and then search the web trying to find somthing supporting their betting”


    Pretty bold, broad statement.

    Supporting documentation?

  58. 3b says:

    #58 bi:Anyone who has half brain will tell you how come the month of march will be worse than first 2 months when the stock market has biggest rally since 1974.

    I qualify,can you tell me?

  59. 3b says:

    #59 stu: Please install it!! A toilet without a hand sink is just gross!!

  60. Stu says:

    What a pea brain. Bi, don’t read past this point.

    Do you all get the feeling that whenever Bi claims that everyone else does something, he is actually describing something that he does himself?

    I’m sure there is a name for this, but I can’t put my finger on it.

  61. Stu says:

    I already did 3b. There was a slop sink just around the corner, but Gator thought that was gross. I suppose that sometimes she is right.

  62. Stu says:

    Yahoo Finance:

    Banks lose $9.2B in derivatives trading in 4Q

    Commercial banks rack up $9.2 billion in derivatives trading losses in the 4th quarter

    NEW YORK (AP) — Commercial banks lost $9.2 billion trading derivatives during the fourth quarter as the credit crisis intensified, according to a report released Friday by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

    Losses mounted as commercial banks had to take additional write-downs on the value of investments they held, offsetting gains from actual trades.

    The collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and the near-failure of American International Group Inc. in September touched off one of the worst parts of the credit crisis, which carried over into the final three months of the year. Credit markets froze up, further pressuring the value of many types of investments.

    Derivatives contracts include interest rate and foreign exchange contracts as well as credit default swaps — a product that is essentially a bet against the performance of other types of investments. Credit default swaps have been at the heart of the credit crisis and a main reason for problems at Lehman and AIG.

    The total value of derivatives at commercial banks jumped 14 percent to $200.4 trillion as financial firms changed their operating status to commercial banks after the collapse of Lehman in an effort to stay in business. Among those changing their status were investment banking giants Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley.

    For the full year, commercial banks recorded their first-ever industrywide loss on derivatives trading, losing $836 million in 2008, compared with revenues of $5.49 billion in 2007, according to the OCC.

  63. 3b says:

    #64 stu: gator is right it was gross.

  64. skep-tic says:

    there is apparently much gnashing of teeth due to the fact that the O-man is following many of Bush’s policies to the letter. O-bots are dumbstruck because this means that either W got some things right or O is fallible, both of which are clearly impossible.

  65. 3b says:

    #63I’m sure there is a name for this, but I can’t put my finger on it.


  66. skep-tic says:


    “I realize that “punishing” my mother over her good nature isn’t a smart idea. What are your thoughts?”

    if you are talking about a large enough amount of money where the fees would be worth it, you could set up a trust for the sole benefit of your mother administered by an independent trustee. the presence of an intermediary might temper the conflict between you and your brother.

  67. ruggles says:

    you don’t need to go to europe to find people who don’t bathe everyday. hop on over here to hunterdon. also, since we all pee outside around here, we don’t need sinks next to our toilets either. in emergencies, thats what the pond and the creek are for.

  68. Ben says:

    Nicholas, I’ve yet to see a case in the hundreds of people I know where a sibling who was low on cash managing their parents finances turned out well. In fact, 100% of the time, they are positioning themselves to fix a will and make sure the parents property or savings go to them and them only once the parents die. I have yet to see it happen otherwise. Why is it always the brother or sister that is out of work the one that looks to manage the parents finances when they are older?

  69. NJGator says:

    For the record, I forced Stu to find a sink that would fit into our closet with a toilet.

    Maybe Grim wants to get his JD so a Big Law firm can pay him not to work for them. Ingenious!

  70. JBJB says:

    [5] Skep

    Good points. But even w/ and FHA on 600K, you still have to come up with 3.5 % down (21K) plus the insurance premium (9,653K) which I guess is can be rolled into the monthly payment. Still leaves you with a PITI well over 4200/month. That’s a big nut even for above average earning DINK’s.

    I think another reason is that 550-650K seems to be the price for the standard 3-4br, 2ba CHC on .5 acre that are often sought after.

  71. 3b says:

    OK these people have not got the message, that prices are declining, even in this sought after Bergen co blue ribbon train town.

    This turn of the last century colonial, was I believe on the market 2 years ago for 379K.

    Either it sold or they took it off, but it is now back on at 555K!!!

    Watch the train go by from your lemonade front porch.


  72. Don says:

    So now the garden state is asking the other 49 states to pay for their unemployed. It was bad enough getting ripped off when I lived there and now that I am 750 miles from this little treasure of a place I still have to pay. How high will the ocean have to rise to submerge everything inside of 287?

  73. 3b says:

    #72 gator:For the record, I forced Stu to find a sink that would fit into our closet with a toilet.

    I salute you!!

  74. Stu says:

    “For the record, I forced Stu to find a sink that would fit into our closet with a toilet.”

    If it were up to me, I would have earmarked the toilet to perform both distinct functions. Poop, flush, wash, flush!

  75. skep-tic says:

    “One in three Americans believe the government should make it illegal to pay athletes and movie stars more than $1 million per year, according to a new poll.

    A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey released Thursday found that 30 percent favor government pay limits for jocks and film stars.

    There is more support for capping the pay of corporate executives – with 36 percent saying the federal government should make it illegal to pay any company exec more than $1 million a year.”


  76. 3b says:

    #79 skeptic; American are a stupid bunch. You eant to cap pay for athletes and actors?

    Simply boycott their teams and movies. And stop atreating them like their special.

  77. chicagofinance says:

    chicagofinance says:
    March 27, 2009 at 1:30 pm
    “Especially when the market rallies on no noticeable change in its underlying earnings…right?”
    2 & Stu: ceteris parabus, if interest rates drop then the PV of future earnings is greater…..YES?

    2 Cents says:
    March 27, 2009 at 1:37 pm
    Chi (26) – “ceteris parabus” But, can you honestly say that all others are going to be equal from this point onward? Where is the demand?

    Stu says:
    March 27, 2009 at 1:45 pm
    ChiFi, “2 & Stu: ceteris parabus, if interest rates drop then the PV of future earnings is greater…..YES?” Haven’t heard someone mention PV in so long, I had to look it up. To answer your question, yes! But how reliable are your future earnings when hyperinflation could turn your Civic into an Edsel?

    2 & STU: You asked to explain the recent rally relative to fundamental value (i.e. earnings). I just did. Now you are asking other questions. You want me to answer those too?

    To be clear, this explanation is not the only one. To answer clot’s & kettle’s assertions yesterday echoing Mike Morgan, I suggested a series of “technical” not fundamental factors.

  78. chicagofinance says:

    I know I act like a stupida%% most of the time, but they don’t call me chicagofinance for nothing…..BOOOOOOYAAAA

  79. chicagofinance says:

    Also, you have to use ceteris parabus to isolate the effect of your variable, because there is so much freakin’ noise that most discussions are impossible in a dynamic system.

  80. chicagofinance says:

    Did I mention that this DM album is sick!

  81. make money says:


    Apparently Dillan Ratigan is forced to resign from CNBC due to what he said on Oprah. He clearly says Hank Paulson shoudl go to jail.

  82. Qwerty says:

    RE: “I’m sure there is a name for this, but I can’t put my finger on it.”

    It’s called “projection.” Too much irony for words…

  83. Stu says:


    Risk spread?

    You are way out of my league. Perhaps my decent track record of equity investing performance has to do with my ability to be less empirical than the experts.

    I’ve often read that the greatest world leaders in history tended to be less calculating.

    I still attribute my long-term performance to experience and patience, way more than education.

    On 9-11, when the towers fell, almost everyone had trouble focusing on their work in my department (on Varick BTW). As their supervisor, I told them to work now and think later. SEC deadlines wait for noone and 9-11 was not yet a holiday. We got our work done in the next 4 hours and then socialized. Unlike most at the time, I knew there was nothing that we could say or do at 11am that could change anything, that couldn’t be said or done at 3pm. The ash people (those who walked up from ground zero) who our company volunteered our phones to were quite the distraction though.

    I’m not sure where I am going with this, but I think it is incredibly important to not over-analyze a problem. Same with investing. Make sure you are diversified, minimize your risk act on your own conviction (not what some schlub on CNBC says) and due your due diligence. Then do your due diligence again. If the idea doesn’t work, be satisfied in waiting until you find an idea that does work. Pretty simple stuff actually.

  84. SG says:

    Well Frank will be happy to hear this.

    U.S. consumer spending up again

  85. Seneca says:

    My supply chain firm (we actually make stuff) had a workforce reduction this week. I had to let one person go, another department was eliminated entirely.

    This falls into the category of opportunistic layoffs. Its ugly but true. Given that ours is a satellite office to a much less expensive corporate HQ in the midwest, I imagine it is a matter of time before I see my pink slip.

    That being said, I still see long lines out of the $10 chop-your-salad-to-bits place whenever the weather is halfway decent so say it with me: “Recession, WHAT recession?”

  86. Clotpoll says:

    HE (52)-

    The only way these banks like JPM can make money is by stealing it.

    Insolvency is like death. Can’t bring the patient back to life.

  87. Clotpoll says:

    We have an examining room full of dead and rotting corpses, and Timmay want us to believe they’re only suffering from hangnails.

  88. implosion08 says:

    Grim – The line “You’ll never regret going to law school” is about as true as “House prices never fall.”

    The program is wonderful for developing critical thinking skills. You already seem to have those in spades. It is at least one year longer than it needs to be, much too expensive and does not lend itself to other careers as easily as you’d expect. Tread carefully – it is a big decision, regretted by many.

    If you want some perspective, please feel free to email me. But good luck with whatever you decide.

  89. SG says:

    Kominicki: At least there’s double-digit inflation to look forward to

    From Robert Shapiro:

    We are in an economic downturn whose seriousness has not been seen in most of our lifetimes, one that can deservedly be dubbed The Great Recession. Although it is global in scope, America is walking point, with Asia and Europe several months behind us but coming on fast.

    Our country is experiencing the sharpest climb in unemployment since the end of World War II, when millions of servicemen were mustered out into the economy. The nation has lost as much as 25 percent of its wealth. GDP could decline by as much as 3 percent during this downturn, the largest dip in our history and one that will take years to replace. It has the potential to get worse.

    The traditional cures for a recession won’t work here. Because of the problem’s global reach, we cannot count on exports to replace declining U.S. consumption. Thanks to the banking meltdown and the credit crunch, domestic business expansion is a distant hope. That leaves government, which has already pumped in $3 trillion, with limited results.

    So look for Congress to pass a second stimulus package this summer, likely a mix of direct aid to the states and additional support for unemployment benefits.

    Declining trade will result in protectionism in some quarters. Then, four or five years down the road, expect Carter-like inflation as the final result of all the government stimulus. In other words, just when your net worth begins to rebound, it will get hammered again.

  90. Clotpoll says:

    Stu (63)-


    I just hope that somehow his dime-store intellect doesn’t bleed into me.

  91. skep-tic says:

    so far, March house sales in Greenwich, CT are running 84% below March 08 and 92% below March 07.


  92. SG says:

    After the storm

    According to the US Federal Reserve, there has been no wealth creation during the first decade of the 21st century. The net worth of the average American household, adjusted for inflation, is currently lower now than it was in 2001.

  93. Happy Daze says:

    NYC accountants report that they are seeing an increase in business due to first-time hot dog cart vendors looking to maximize deductions.

  94. 3b says:

    #90 SG: I just wonder how one can start to think that the worst may be behind us, as unemployment continues to rise?

    I would also think that after the plunge in the 4th quarter, there would be at least be a slight improvement in sales.

    Finally when you look at the increase in spending, consumer sentiment etc., the incresaes are slight.

    Amazing to me that based on thisslightly better data there are those who are staring to think that the worst may be behind us.

    CNN is already airing a special program tonight with that same theme.

  95. Zack says:

    What is the wisdom in plunking all the cash from the proceeds of the sale of your previous home and putting as down payment that would cover almost 60% of the purchase of a new home. This way you are left with a comfortabel mortgage that you can afford.
    My friend just did that and I am trying to figure out the pros and cons of that approach.

  96. 3b says:

    #91 seneca:That being said, I still see long lines out of the $10 chop-your-salad-to-bits place whenever the weather is halfway decentso say it with me: “Recession, WHAT recession?”

    They are usually the ones who are the last to know, or they believe the government,is going to make it all ok, so they chop away.

    Or, denial denial, denial.

    Some people are still struggling to understand that the party reallis over.

  97. 3b says:

    #104 BC Bob: So true.

  98. PA Bound says:

    History Contradicts Claim That President’s Budget Would Harm Small Business Job Creation


    Clinton (1993-2000) Avg. % Growth 2.3%
    Bush (2001-2006*) Avg. % Growth 1.0%

  99. 2 Cents says:

    Seneca (91) –
    “This falls into the category of opportunistic layoffs. Its ugly but true.”

    I am sure that this is due to O coming to power, right?

  100. 3b says:

    Hey gary! I found this bank owned home for you in Wyckoff at 470k!! Aparently it needs some repairs, but at that price you might want to at least throw a bid in.


  101. skep-tic says:

    more on the problem getting jumbo mortgages now. again, it seems to me that sellers who are priced just over the line into jumbo territory are just dead in the water. not high end enough to appeal to the truly wealthy, but inaccessible to the merely affluent.


  102. SG says:

    RIP, MBA

    Put your ear to the ground near any business school campus, and you will hear the sound of another bubble about to pop. The MBA will soon be joining equities and house titles in the museum of formerly overvalued pieces of paper.

    The truth is that the relevance of the technical training allegedly offered by the MBA was always overblown. The idea that there is some body of knowledge pertaining to business management that can be packaged up and distributed to the business universe in two-year course-lets—well, it sounded good about a century ago, when it was first conceived. Maybe it still had merit when the schools were turning out only a few thousand graduates per year. But it certainly stopped making sense well before the schools achieved their current level of production of a whopping 140,000 or so graduates per year. The empirical evidence on the contribution of the MBA to individual career performance seems to bear this out—mainly because it doesn’t exist. In fact, if the relevance of an M.D. to the performance of doctors were even half as unsubstantiated, we’d probably be fantasizing about tossing a few physicians in jail, too.

  103. danzud says:


    I’m going to Rutgers-Newark part-time MBA courtesy of my company subsidizing the bill. My company just lowered the reimbursement to the point where it only covers one class a year. I have a choice with 3 classes remaining. Take one a year for the next 3 years and have them pay or pay for it myself. My Mom and fiance are willing to pay to have me be done this year but I don’t think it’s worth it anymore. Everyone in my class (except for two full-timers and two exchange students out of 22) now gets reimbursed by their companies. At $3k/class, what do you expect. I plan to go the one class a year route.

  104. SG says:

    Westfield NJ Housing Market-Sincere Sellers Snare Signatures.

    1723 Summit Ave
    OLP 549900
    SP 400000
    DOM 100

    149 Summit Ct
    OLP 599900
    SP 420000
    DOM 152

    218 Sinclair Pl
    OLP 2,594,000
    SP 1,884,000
    DOM 135

  105. SG says:

    danzud: Nothing against MBA, but most people think getting MBA from top school is like a jackpot. Most are doing it for money then learning. I have seen too many smart people leave their field of passion such as engineering etc… and become mediocre MBA manager.

  106. grim says:

    RIP, MBA

    danzud: Nothing against MBA, but most people think getting MBA from top school is like a jackpot. Most are doing it for money then learning


    If you want to point to a fleecing, point at the undergrad degrees.

  107. SG says:

    Jackson Calls On Governor To Veto Age-restricted housing Bills

    With thousands of age-restricted units already built in Jackson, and even more on the way, the council is deeply concerned about what the revised measures could lead to.

    “In essence, we are in trouble in Jackson if this passes,” said Council Vice President Bobbie Rivere. “We would very much be affected by this ruling. If I had two votes, I would vote ‘no’ twice.”

    “This bill continues a pattern by the state that has been eroding ‘home rule’ over the years whereby municipalities, like Jackson Township, are losing the ability to make the determination as to the manner in which the township should be developed, as only local authorities have the intimate knowledge of what is best for their communities and their existing residents,” the resolution states.

  108. SG says:

    Freeholders back bill to abolish COAH

    During its March 11 meeting in Freehold, the board voted 5-0 in favor of a resolution supporting state Assembly bill A-3570, which calls for the abolition of the state’s Council on Affordable Housing (COAH) because of what the board perceives as hardships the agency’s mandates place on county municipalities.

    “The freeholders have joined many lawmakers in New Jersey in supporting the bill to abolish [COAH],” William Heine, county director of public information, said last week.

    “This does not mean they do not support affordable housing,” Heine explained, adding, “It merely means that they feel COAH has overstepped its authority.”

  109. bi says:

    92#, clot, is my my translation correct?

    The only way these RE agencies like Re/Max can make money is by cheating.

    disclaimer: i don’t work for either JPM or Re/Max .

    Clotpoll says:
    March 27, 2009 at 4:13 pm
    HE (52)-

    The only way these banks like JPM can make money is by stealing it.

    Insolvency is like death. Can’t bring the patient back to life.

  110. Nicholas says:

    Thank you everyone for your comments about my situation.

    I will force him and his family to step down from administering her finances. If that requires a shredding in front of the rest of my family I guess that would be in order.

  111. zieba says:

    Whenever I read the phrase “starter home” I can help but wonder what a tremendous impact this bubble had on the normal “migration” of home owners. There was the starter home which after slow and steady appreciation (remember, houses always went up) could be sold and rolled over into a bigger home and then a condo or whatnot. It appears that normal migration is broken, instead there’s a minefield with bodies strewn about everywhere.

    Now, with values declining many may find themselves stationary in their starter homes and many people whose residences have run their course may find themselves unable to move up if they drank from the spiked punch bowl.

    It’s really a mess with implications lasting years into the future.

  112. freedy says:

    hurry, to union city and guttenburg
    get your handgun permit while your at it

  113. skep-tic says:


    I think the UK phrase “property ladder” captures the idea behind the “starter home” perfectly. It is really just a ponzi scheme– you join the club and then hope other people join after you so that you can make money. There is no net gain of wealth for the group as a whole– just redistribution from the bottom up.

    Well now the property ladder is broken. I will stay in my rental home for 4-5 yrs total and just skip buying the starter home. And as you point out, many people who joined the ponzi late will now be stuck.

  114. bi says:

    frank, where is the recession?

    Bank of America, which has received $45 billion of taxpayers’ money, may raise the annual base pay for some managing directors to about $300,000 from $180,000, said the people, who declined to be identified because the final numbers are still under discussion. Salaries for less-senior directors would climb to about $250,000 from $150,000, and vice presidents would get $200,000, up from about $125,000, the people said.

    “It’s literally long overdue,” said Johnson, the founder of New York-based compensation-consulting firm Johnson Associates Inc. “Salaries haven’t really changed in 15 years. The whole industry had silly low base salaries. It was kind of a macho thing left over from the 1980s.”


  115. yikes says:

    random friday firings:

    wife’s company laid off about half a dozen people today. very weird.

    the company “retreat” was cancelled earlier this year. then, about a month ago, they decided to do it again. all is well, right?

    well after the firings came this email: No more 401k match.

  116. House Whine says:

    All this job uncertainty is probably keeping a lot of people up at night. You think you might be safe, but not so much.

  117. kettle1 says:

    Fed Buys $7.54 Billion of Debt to Cut Borrowing Costs

    The Federal Reserve bought $7.541 billion of Treasuries in its second outright purchase of U.S. government debt in three days as part of the central bank’s efforts to lower consumer borrowing rates.


  118. kettle1 says:


    if i may be so rude,

    have you found something yet or are you looking?

  119. kettle1 says:

    A better question (putting on my SAS hat):

    If everyone wants supranational regulation, then who controls that regulating body? Whoever controls banking at the international level essentially controls the world

    China’s central bank slams global lack of regulation

    People’s Bank of China says idea that markets can regulate themselves is fallacy

  120. kettle1 says:

    Are things really going to descend into race baiting and ethnic hatred this quickly? I suppose it does make an easy scape goat.

    Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Thursday blamed the global economic crisis on “white people with blue eyes” and said it was wrong that black and indigenous people should pay for white people’s mistakes.

  121. sas says:

    “Whoever controls banking at the international level essentially controls the world”

    hence no financial or information sovereignty per govt (especially the executive branch)…

    hence.. there IS NO GOVT.

    let the looting begin.

  122. sas says:

    and some you thought Omama was going to give you “change”.


    go fly a kite..

  123. sas says:

    “Early BFF?”

    no best friend forever, but rather economic warfare.

    not to the financials then what is being shown.

    its about taken away market share, eliminate competitin from smaller banks, gobble them up with your tax dollars, and consolidate.

    But that fruitcake Glen Beck will never tell you that, or that knuckle head Jim Cramer.


  124. sas says:


    what the heck do you want to goto school?

    why train to be a lap dog?
    thats what schools are all about, to teach you to do only one thing, as well and efficiently as possible (for someone else).

    if you want this “JD”, here you go:


    you are a JD.


  125. Clotpoll says:

    bi (120)-

    Go fcuk your mother, douchebag.

    Please come to a GTG. I will feed you your teeth.

  126. sas says:

    Ckot & bi,

    now blokes…

    I know its a little stressful out there.


  127. Clotpoll says:

    Hey, bi-

    I spend a good deal of my time every week trying to extricate people from situations that are- mostly- of their own making.

    However, scuzballs like JPM identified these people, bombarded them with offer after offer and certainly helped grease the skids of their demise.

    Of all the banks I do short sales with, JPM is far and away the sleaziest, most underhanded of the bunch.

    You want to play clever little straw man and somehow glue me to them and get me riled up?

    Well, consider me fully engaged, you lying, annoying, pea-brained little troll.

  128. Clotpoll says:

    sas (138)-

    Doing a couple days in lockup to bust this guy up would be cake. And, totally worth it.

  129. sas says:

    Last time I tried to break up a fight, out at the Harley motorcycle rally in Sturgis, SD bike ralley, I gotta knife in the side.

    was stupid to step in btw a Hells Angels member and a member of Bandidos.

    but, I did it cause at the time, this Bandido had alot to tell me, I didn’t want him to get laid up in the hospital, so tried to talk peace, that lasted about 60 seconds, then I went down like a tree stump of lighting.


  130. kettle1 says:


    Are the nations of the world

    A- That stupid (Its a solvency issue idiot)

    B- That desperate

    C- that intent on transferring wealth from the people to the financial oligarchs.

    D – All of the above

  131. kettle1 says:

    Bank of England’s Corporate Bond Adventure

    Is the Bank of England shooting at the wrong target? Its first purchases of corporate bonds under its Asset Purchase Facility certainly raise questions. So far, it has spent £128 million ($187.3 million) buying bonds of companies that haven’t had any trouble raising money. That’s not obviously a winning strategy. The theory is that buying high-quality bonds will reduce the illiquidity premium in the market. The BOE has £50 billion of firepower to spend in the secondary market. Once in the pockets of market participants, the BOE hopes this cash will trigger a trickle-down effect, boosting risk appetite and unblocking the market for less creditworthy companies.


    Are the nations of the world

    A- That stupid (Its a solvency issue idiot)

    B- That desperate

    C- that intent on transferring wealth from the people to the financial oligarchs.

    D – All of the above

  132. bi says:

    137#, clot, that’s the coolest post you have ever posted, right?

  133. bi says:

    139#, now i see the character.

  134. sas says:

    Circling Vulture has some nice updates:


  135. yikes says:

    surely some folks on this board have crossed this bridge already …


  136. safeashouses says:


    Haven’t started looking yet. Still employed.

    Are you going to take the Texas job?

  137. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    “Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Thursday blamed the global economic crisis on “white people with blue eyes” and said it was wrong that black and indigenous people should pay for white people’s mistakes.”

    Perhaps not the right choice of words but after nearly every one of those South American countries have had the IMF come in and run their economies for periods of time I think they’re allowed for a cheap pop or two at our expense when the shoes on the other foot and rather than taking sound measures we start creating money out of thin air like the best Banana Republics in the world.

  138. kettle1 says:


    the IMF is essentially a modern day privateer focused on the expansion of financial empire.

    I do not defend the IMF, but the leaders who took the IMF aid in the first place hold a fair share of blame. There are no innocents here.

    If they want to reclaim their financial sovereignty, then they must first look within and stop chasing fools gold in the international market

  139. kettle1 says:

    bank failure friday

    FDIC seizes Atlanta’s Omni National Bank

    Omni National Bank of Atlanta was closed Friday by regulators and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The seizure follows last week’s move by the FDIC to close three banks and put two large corporate credit unions into conservatorship. The failure of Omni National brings the number of bank failures so far this year to 21.

  140. Dissident HEHEHE says:


    My point is the perception on their part is where’s the IMF/WorldBank etc telling the US or Britain what they should be doing when we’re making the same stupid moves so many of these developing world countries have made and had to listen to that our sh*t throughout the years?

    You can’t deny there’s been a certain smug sense of superiority by the US over the years in their always having to rescue, to paraphrase Mckinley, their “little brown brothers”.

    Sure it was a cheap pop by a politician but I can understand a certain level of justified disgust on the average persons part in Latin America.

  141. kettle1 says:


    not disagreeing. The world bank/IMF are the personal privateers to the american and european economic empire.

    I personally do not think skin color has played a part. Its just about the money. They had resources “money” that we wanted so the IMF/WB went in and got it for us essentially on the terms of our choosing.

    Of course there would and will be resentment, but until they realize that the IMF ad WB are not about helping them, but about pillaging them, then they will be be continually frustrated in any efforts to help themselves.

    It is simply a more complex form of empire building. once you realize this, you can act to counter it.

  142. kettle1 says:


    the danger in such comments is that anger and frustration is rapidly rising in populations around the world. A well spoken politician could easily focus those negative energies on a less then desirable task reminiscent of some of our species less admirable moments.

    Its one thing to direct anger and frustration at an organization or nation and another to begin directing it at specific groups of people

  143. sas says:

    “another to begin directing it at specific groups of people”

    best way to create a diversion.
    create a class or race war.


  144. kettle1 says:

    As an example,

    i could suggest that chinese people are responsible for the loss of many american jobs because they were willing to work without environmental regulations and for slave wages.

    While it may be factually correct it is in itself a misrepresentation of the situation

  145. chicagofinance says:

    Anyone interested? It’s not the seed vault, but it’s something….

    Chicago Booth Alumni Club of New York
    2009 State of the Real Estate Market

    Please join us for this Real Estate Networking & Panel Event, jointly hosted by the Chicago Booth Real Estate Alumni Group (REAG) and Chicago Booth Alumni Club of Greater New York.

    Confirmed panelists to date include: Michael DeMarco (Fortress), David Twardock (Prudential Mortgage), Larry Wolfe (Eastdil Secured) and Professor Joe Pagliari, Jr. (Chicago Booth). Visit here for full speaker biographies.

    Important note: given building security requirements, all attendees must register in advance.

    Upcoming Event

    2009 State of the Real Estate Market
    Date Thursday, April 30, 2009
    Time 6:30 pm – 9:00 pm

  146. kettle1 says:


    food and empire building….

    Look at monsanto

  147. chicagofinance says:

    Stu says:
    March 27, 2009 at 3:56 pm
    ChiFi: Risk spread? You are way out of my league. Perhaps my decent track record of equity investing performance has to do with my ability to be less empirical than the experts. I’ve often read that the greatest world leaders in history tended to be less calculating.
    I still attribute my long-term performance to experience and patience, way more than education.
    I’m not sure where I am going with this, but I think it is incredibly important to not over-analyze a problem.

    Stu: I find this really insulting. Just because I can incorporate something into my quick view analysis doesn’t imply that I am overanalyzed things. It means I went to business school to learn sh!t (yes – Shail) not a paycheck. In fact, I made less money AFTER graduating business school than before. What I did was get my life back from a group of unintentional blood-suckers….

  148. sas says:

    “Look at monsanto”

    yup, i know those them all too well.

    they have a nice little goon squad working for them that like to poke their nose into things.


  149. sas says:

    “goon squad”

    many major companies have goon squads that spy on people and/or own employeess.

    ex. Mercedes Benz follows their car engineers all over the place.
    and the dumb saps don’t even know it.


  150. lurkerd says:

    bubbalicious says:
    March 27, 2009 at 7:44 am

    “Lansdale…the biggest appeal is the proximity to the turnpike extension, which is always clogged at rush hour and rt 309 which is always clogged always.”

    If people decide to live in Lansdale for the so-called appealing attractions you highlighted, I consider myself lucky not to know any Lansdale residents.

    As a former resident of suburban New Jersey who drove to work on congested highways for several years, I’ve never regreted my decision to move to Hudson County and take public transportation to work.

  151. Stu says:


    Somehow I always end up stepping on your toes. Rest assured, it is not my intent. If anything, I was trying to complement you.

    My ability to do well with little formal training in no way implies that someone with vast formal training will not nor that you wasted your time. Quite honestly, I am surprised by my investment results. I valued the conversation we had at the Grasshopper a few years ago. Not so much for the content as for the directness. The sugar coating that is so common today has turned us all into a nation of wussies. It was also helpful that your suggestions ended up being correct.

  152. sas says:


    don’t i get any compliments around here?
    I put my neck on the line sometimes for you blokes.


  153. sas says:

    just kidding,
    I’m off too bed.


  154. Stu says:


    I still can’t figure you out. Perhaps the best thing I can say about your presence here is that you provide us with interesting things to ponder when the rest of the clowns have already left for the day.

    You do seem to suffer from a bit of paranoia as well. Do you smoke a bit of the herb?

  155. Happy Camper says:

    sas, you gone for the nite?

    wanted to post something for u


  156. BuyNowOrLose says:

    Should Renters Jump Into the Housing Market?


  157. A.West says:

    Lula must have never met Stan O’Neal.

  158. CirclingVulture says:

    Is 30% The New Black? 40%? 50%?


  159. yikes says:

    comrade nom deplume says:
    March 27, 2009 at 9:26 am

    [55] d

    Yes, but Ambler and Narbeth are Main Line, and Newtown is, well, Newtown. You pay thru the nose to live in any one of those places, and you have to deal with the attitude. Think Brigadoon (would say Millburn or Summit, but it really is not THAT bad). Lansdale, North Wales, etc. are a lot cheaper, even if they don’t have a vibe.

    as a newbie resident to one of those towns, our taxes are low (7k) and i haven’t detected any “attitude” at all yet. then again, we’ve only barely me the neighbors.

  160. yikes says:

    d2b says:
    March 27, 2009 at 9:40 am

    Ambler is next to North Wales. It’s on the R5, Lansdale line. I think that you are thinking of Adrmore, which is near Villanova. I would also throw Hatboro into the mix of small towns with main streets.

    Throw Chestnut Hill in that mix as well. But then you are getting into that upper tier, attitude places.

    Philly has it’s downsides but in does have some cool neighborhoods.

    have good friends in Ardmore. been out there a few times. seems like a nice area, but much more ‘urban’ than bucks.

  161. Chris says:

    I’m looking for a 4 bedroom in Old Tappan/Rivervale/Montvale areas. What are you thoughts about these areas and market trends? Please chime in.

  162. JBJB says:

    176 in Mod for some reason

  163. JBJB says:

    From “Should Renters Jump”

    “Mortgage costs can be fixed. If you get a fixed rate, your financing costs are predictable for the life of the loan. Meanwhile, your rent can be jacked up beyond what you expected or are able to pay.”

    Again, another full article on real estate that doesn’t even mention property taxes as a completely unpredictable variable in the PITI equation. I realize that most of the country is not NY or NJ, but you think at least one of these reports would arrive at the conclusion (or at least mention) that confiscatory property tax rates are a reason why housing is stalled.

  164. Dissident HEHEHE says:


    Perhaps it would be better put if he simply said “Hey, we didn’t create the problem this time”.

  165. Cindy says:

    HEHEHE (4)

    That is the area where I live. Fresno (500,000) is next door to Clovis (86,000.) In our case, I can tell you
    the homeless population and many of these encampments have been around for years. They didn’t just spring up during the current crisis.


    In 2004, they were “cleaned up” sparking a multi-million dollar lawsuit in 2006. The areas have been pretty “established” since then.

  166. Cindy says:


    The Poverello House – which serves the local homeless population, has been providing 3 meals a day, laundry services etc. since the 70’s.

  167. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Cindy, thanks for the clarification. I wouldn’t doubt those facts at all given how lazy the media is in actually reporting things. They usually create the story and worry about the facts later.

  168. Cindy says:

    (4) What I worry about more are the families with children sleeping in cars or constantly moving in with extended families members that are stretched to provide the stability children need to thrive. I am glad schools are providing both breakfast and lunch for these little ones.

  169. Cindy says:

    (180) HEHEHE – Sensationalism?

    Focus on the homeless kids. That is the real story. Not the folks who are looking to game the city for whatever they can get.

  170. Cindy says:


    Jumbo Prime Foreclosures Starts Spike: Report – Housingwire

    “Jumbo Prime took the cake in terms of which product showed the highest deterioration in 30-to-60-day roll rates from February to July 2005, followed by non-agency conforming prime.

  171. Shore Guy says:

    “Well Frank will be happy to hear this.
    U.S. consumer spending up again”

    Back to our old way — income goes down and spending goes up. This is thekind of behavior that made us what we are today.

  172. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Modern day Grapes of Wrath.

  173. crossroads says:

    shore guy
    still plenty of room on the credit cards. you have to max them out before you go start bankruptcy

  174. Cindy says:

    Read in a recent article (can’t remember which one – sorry) that The Four Freedoms depicted in the famous Rockwell painting showed “Freedom FROM want – not freedom TO want.”

  175. serenity now says:

    #189 South Park episode
    May possibly be the funniest thing
    ever posted on this blog.
    Nice find JBJB.

  176. Pat says:

    I agree. Very impressed with the South Park episodes.

    My only criticism is that Kyle knows he is bailing people out.

    The writers should have had the grandparents and parents do it to him when he was asleep, holding his hand, and running the card through, again, and again…and praising him while he was sleeping.

  177. Cindy says:

    (192) Pat – Good point. I was wondering if it was meant to be a “Speaking Truth to Power” moment. Is Kyle doing it because he is the “truth speaker” – the cynic.


  178. 3b says:

    #152 agreed.

  179. Victorian says:

    I think I understand why the government has undertaken this massive giveaway to the banksters. There is tremendous private and public debt in the system. Private debt = households in debt, whose assets are held by the banks and are rapidly depreciating in value. Plus, the banks have levered themselves up to buy these assets.
    The only way the economy is going to go ahead is if we get rid of the debt in the system. The more beneficial way (from the point of view of the country) to get this going would be principal reductions across the board – mortgages, credit card, student loans etc. This would shore up the household balance sheet and stimulate demand. However, this is not politically feasible and is too transparent. Moral hazard is too visible to Joe6P. Plus, of course, the ultra-rich would get hit the hardest.
    So, the government has chosen instead to transfer the private debt of the banks onto the public balance sheet. Joe6P is not economically literate enough to understand what is happening. He would have understood what is happening if his neighbor across the street who splurged all these years is getting his debt forgiven, but banks on wall st are on a different level.

    However, the crucial aspect which is ignored is even if the banks are bailed out, the household balance sheet is still fcuked. There are no eligible borrowers even if the banks are ready to lend. As BC says, Got Demand?

  180. Jim says:

    195. Victoria …However, the crucial aspect which is ignored is even if the banks are bailed out, the household balance sheet is still fcuked. There are no eligible borrowers even if the banks are ready to lend. As BC says, Got Demand?
    I don’t know. I think there are some eligible borrowers but the banks have just made credit way too tight. I was just turned down for a $8,000 credit card for Restoration Hardware. I’m unsure why I was turned down. I have $100,000 cash on hand in a bank account and zero debt. I asked for a copy of my credit report which had no negative information on it.

  181. stan says:

    Buynowandlose: the article is just recycled crud. I read about that couple from Ontario 2 Months ago

    We have a long way to go…even in Florida

  182. reinvestor101 says:

    This screen name is pissing me off. Why in the hell would anyone call themselves a circling vulture unless they’re lowdown and looking to have a damn feast at someone else’s expense?

    He or she hasn’t posted here very long and already they’ve earned a spot on my damn list.

    I put vultures, snakes and cats in the same league; sneaky and lowdown and I don’t trust them.

    sas says:
    March 27, 2009 at 8:57 pm
    Circling Vulture has some nice updates:


  183. The Sneaky Cat says:

    reinvestor101 (198):

    I feel the same way about you!!! You are not to be trusted with money the way you blow it on stupid real estate deals.

    I will come and dig up your flower beds this spring.

    I will be watching you….

  184. reinvestor101 says:


    Stinking damn cat. Yeah, please come dig up my flower beds. I’m going to have a little surprise for you feline.

    The Sneaky Cat says:
    March 28, 2009 at 1:24 pm
    reinvestor101 (198):

    I feel the same way about you!!! You are not to be trusted with money the way you blow it on stupid real estate deals.

    I will come and dig up your flower beds this spring.

    I will be watching you

  185. jamil says:

    does it make sense to have both renter’s insurance and personal liability insurance?

    Any pros and cons if picking one over the other?

    I don’t have either at the moment (yeah I know, I know), but the new building requires one of them (they can recommend renter’s insurance, the lowest quote was something like $100/year – not sure what is covered).

    I have a legal plan already so attorney representation (except DWI) is already covered (I think for non-contested cases only).

  186. The Sneaky Cat says:


    Stinking damn cat. Yeah, please come dig up my flower beds. I’m going to have a little surprise for you feline.

    Nice try buddy. I am way ahead of you. This Sneaky Cat will be in and out of your flower beds during the late night. Hope you can stay up all nite every nite to catch me.

  187. Pat says:

    Reinvestor, there’s still time for you to register your name before I take it.


  188. Stu says:

    Renter’s insurance is the greatest deal in the world. Just make sure you walk through your house with a video camera and keep all of your receipts in a safe place. I purchase everything on the credit card so I have all the purchases itemized in perpetuity.

  189. Pat says:


    Oh, wait, are you Dr. Kracko from Kenilworth, or Clown Chips from Roselle?

  190. safeashouses says:

    #198 re101

    That would make vultures and cats still higher up than re investors.

    You should embrace circlingvulture, CV is pointing out steep price drops in a blue ribbon train town. I would think a genious like you would be delighted at someone doing re homework for you.

  191. safeashouses says:

    # 204 pat


  192. sas says:

    NYT had a great piece today, surprize to me that it was even on the front page.

    “Despite Red Flags About Judges, a Kickback Scheme Flourished”

    this is important article because it highlights (although on a very small scale) what happens all the time via paid judges & cops, thanks to the drug laws.

    The drug laws are there to keep prices high and to throw someone dumb enough to use drugs in the slammer. A private slammer via Wall St, and back door kick back.

    In this story, they made it out like the just 2 sap judges. No doubt more people were invlolved. ex cops & parole, JDC staff.

    and you blokes think I just blow smoke and I’m some pissant fist pumper living in my mothers’s basement??


    you bad wrong.

  193. sas says:

    it just keeps coming doesn’t it.
    mor shoes will fall, just hope none are your

    “15-Month Sentence for NJ Official who Took Bribes”


  194. sas says:


    about that article above.

    think, how much money due to fraud, those in on the take were able to spend in the real economy. ex. boats, real estate, vacations, fancy feast dinner & cars.

    aka, black economy
    without, your wee 401k is worth nill.


  195. kettle1 says:

    Sweet more wealth transfer!

    I am not blaming this on the hedge funds an wall street, but our inept government. All this is is a direct transfer of money from US taxpayers to private corporations

    Dealers buy U.S. government paper and quickly sell it back.

    Count on Wall Street to figure out a way to make a quick buck in a down market. The big banks and brokerage houses that deal directly with the Federal Reserve were avid buyers of Treasury securities in auctions last week, but they were even more avid sellers of those bonds to the central bank. “What appears to be happening is the 16 primary dealers that were responsible for helping underwrite the auctions are now long with the hope of quickly selling the bonds at a higher price to the Fed before the next supply infusion comes in a few weeks,” said Josh Stiles, senior bond strategist at IDEAglobal.

  196. kettle1 says:

    Things starting to get interesting

    London Protesters Threaten Bankers, Evoke 1649 Execution of King Charles I

    Mark Barrett, a professional tour guide, spent last Saturday painting Barack Obama’s election catchphrase “yes we can” on a banner that protesters will carry as they try to occupy London’s financial district April 1. Barrett is helping organize a protest outside the Bank of England, one of several called to express anger against banks and bankers and mark the arrival in London of leaders of the Group of 20 nations — including Obama, now president. “We want a very English revolution,” he says from a café near his home in north London. “The first English revolution in 1649 was about winning sovereignty for parliament over the king.” Now, protesters are campaigning for sovereignty for everyone.


  197. kettle1 says:

    Britain may have to seek IMF rescue

    “You have a problem that the banking system is bigger than the economy . . . so for Britain to absorb it alone would really pile up the debt,”


  198. sas says:


    if it wasn’t for mass prozac and MKultura television, we would see similar things here.


  199. kettle1 says:


    there is the potential for that to happen here as well.

    Look at how the US revolution was structured. It was primarily a small group of dedicated and talented individuals that drove the entire event. It was a “mass” event, at least for the first few years

  200. kettle1 says:

    “It WASNT a “mass” event, at least for the first few years”

  201. kettle1 says:

    No surprise, thia is what we all said would happen when the GOV went after bonuses.

    Bank of America May Boost Investment Banker Pay 70% After Merrill Takeover

    Bank of America Corp. plans to increase some investment bankers’ salaries by as much as 70 percent following the takeover earlier this year of Merrill Lynch & Co., people familiar with the proposal said. “The concepts we are considering would not increase total compensation,” Brian Moynihan, Bank of America’s president of investment banking and wealth management, wrote yesterday in a memo to employees obtained by Bloomberg News. “Rather, we believe it is responsible, and consistent with the emerging public consensus, that a greater percentage of overall compensation come from fixed base salary.”


  202. kettle1 says:

    More compensation that dodges the bonus pitfall

    Goldman Sachs Pays Executives $49.6 Million on Investments as Stock Falls

    Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s top 10 executives received $49.6 million from their investments in hedge funds and private equity funds during 2008, more than most of them earned in compensation after agreeing to forgo bonuses. Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein’s $1.1 million in total compensation was dwarfed by the $11.3 million he received in profits and other income from his fund investments, the New York-based company’s proxy filing showed. Co-President Gary Cohn’s $3.7 million in pay contrasts with $7.4 million in fund income, the filing showed.


  203. reinvestor101 says:


    Let me tell you something, I better not ever see that that buzzard circling around my house. He’ll find the damn ground rising to meet him. He might even find himself in a mid-air collision with that sneaky damn cat when I throw his ass out of my flower bed.

    Tell you what, I day I take real estate investment advice from that damn circling buzzard will be day I strap some C-4 onto my chest, jump aboard a damn daisy cutter and tell them to drop me in hell.

    safeashouses says:
    March 28, 2009 at 3:09 pm
    #198 re101

    That would make vultures and cats still higher up than re investors.

    You should embrace circlingvulture, CV is pointing out steep price drops in a blue ribbon train town. I would think a genious like you would be delighted at someone doing re homework for you.

  204. sas says:

    “there is the potential for that to happen here as well”

    yes. agreed.
    but, i would be on the look out for a sometype of flase flag event.

    A false flag would then would so call “bring everyone together” to fight a so called enemy.

    hard to do a protest, when you think Al-Qaeda is under your coffee table and you are scared stiff that you will do anything your wonderful govt wil tell you to keep you safe.


    you think sometype of Timothy McVay is out there, and you get scared…

    i can go on foever.

    That author Naomi Kline was half way there in her book “shock Doctrine”

    she is a little wet behind the ears to take it to the next level.
    but, i am sure someone paid her a visit and told her just how far she could take the topic.


  205. kettle1 says:

    “Rome eventually understood that its imperial frontiers exceeded its resources and pulled back. This realization has yet to dawn on Washington.”

  206. kettle1 says:


    what i see as the real threat to TBTP is that they get a few to many of the rcent Iraq/ Afghanistan vets pissed off enough to going a group interested in taking action.

    Such individuals have the training and the battle experience to be a very serious threat.

  207. reinvestor101 says:

    Lady, this is the reason why you sit atop every enemies list I have ever compiled here.

    Let me remind you that we have a deal, when I’m posting, you’re to absent yourself from this board. I’d appreciate your prompt compliance.

    Pat says:
    March 28, 2009 at 2:47 pm
    Reinvestor, there’s still time for you to register your name before I take it.


  208. kettle1 says:

    FED getting worried that someone they dont control might tell everyone that the emperor has no clothes….

    DBRS Accuses Fed Of Discriminating Against Small Rating Firms

    The president of Canada-based DBRS Inc., a rival to the big three credit rating firms, accused the Federal Reserve on Thursday of effectively shutting smaller rating firms out of the U.S. securitization market. In prepared testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Daniel Curry complained that asset-backed securities are only eligible to participate in the Fed’s new Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility if they receive a AAA-ratings from Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s or Fitch.

    “No explanation has been given for the creation of this new sub-category of registered credit rating agency,” Curry said. “The result of this is that DBRS … has been deemed unqualified to rate TALF-eligible securities, even though several issuers have asked it to do so.” ”


  209. kettle1 says:


    am i still #2 on your list?

  210. kettle1 says:


    this one is for you

    They are worried that no independent auditors appear to have had access to the reported $137 billion (£96 billion) stockpile of brick-shaped gold bars in Fort Knox since the era of President Eisenhower. After the risky trading activities at supposedly safe institutions such as AIG they want to be reassured that the gold reserves are still the exclusive property of the US and have not been used to fund risky transactions. In other words, they want to be certain that the bullion has not been rendered as valueless as if a real-life Goldfinger had stolen it. “It has been several decades since the gold in Fort Knox was independently audited or properly accounted for,” said Ron Paul, the Texas Congressman a

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article5989271.ecend former Republican presidential candidate, in an e-mail interview with The Times. “The American people deserve to know the truth.”

  211. kettle1 says:


    here is your economic warfare

    Russian Defaults Would Be Signal to ‘Attack’ Ruble, Bank of America Unit Says

  212. cobbler says:

    An awesome article by Simon Johnson in the may issue of Atlantic:
    “…The conventional wisdom … is still that the current slump “cannot be as bad as the Great Depression.” This view is wrong. What we face now could, in fact, be worse than the Great Depression…”


  213. kettle1 says:

    Stu et al

    we discussed the current rapid growth having a basis sometime around 1982.

    this is interesting, look at the charts

    Paul Volcker’s monetary policy in the 1980s, and the increased volatility in interest rates that accompanied it, made bond trading much more lucrative. The invention of securitization, interest-rate swaps, and credit-default swaps greatly increased the volume of transactions that bankers could make money on. And an aging and increasingly wealthy population invested more and more money in securities, helped by the invention of the IRA and the 401(k) plan.


  214. sas says:

    whats this list?


  215. reinvestor101 says:

    What??? Are you worrying about losing your spot or something?

    As long as you persist in posting stuff calculated to make everyone shlt his pants, let me assure you, your place is secure.

    You do realize that you and sas represent the damn economic stimulus for every damn underwear, toilet paper and washing detergent manufacturer in the damn country. There’s rarely a post either you you makes that doesn’t scare the shlt out of everyone.

    kettle1 says:
    March 28, 2009 at 7:59 pm

    am i still #2 on your list?

  216. sas says:

    oh, I remember now.

    always something around here.


  217. Joeycasz says:

    I got an email from my mortgage people yesterday. They tell me they have money to lend and can get me a refinance of 4.99% (0 points) over 30 years. I haven’t talked to them yet buy how much is something like going to cost? We haven’t been in the house a year yet (8 months) just curious as i see the average rate on Bloomberg is 4.93%

  218. jamil says:

    There are still real men in Europe..Angela saves the world. What kind of world is this when Germany and Spain are the ones that save us from nationalized so$ialism?

    uk times:
    “GORDON BROWN’S carefully laid plans for a G20 deal on worldwide tax cuts have been scuppered by an eve-of-summit ambush by European leaders. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, last night led the assault on the prime minister’s “global new deal” for a $2 trillion-plus fiscal stimulus to end the recession. “I will not let anyone tell me that we must spend more money,” she said. The Spanish finance minister, Pedro Solbes, also dismissed new cash being pledged at Thursday’s London summit. “

  219. sas says:

    I’m in the mood for some tiramisu.

    I will see you blokes later.


  220. kettle1 says:

    Commercial real estate loan failures rise sharply

    About $11 billion of distressed commercial property is currently up for sale, compared with a lackluster $2.7 billion worth of properties that were actually sold in February, according to Real Capital Analytics


  221. yikes says:

    and the bank robberies begin … 3 in one day


  222. kettle1 says:

    The Great Flaw in the Geithner Plan Explained


  223. yikes says:

    what a finish to the villanova game. awesome, awesome basketball game

  224. JBJB says:

    Great game, best of the tourney so far.

  225. Cindy says:

    (240) That was cool Kettle – Thanks.

    Did you read the article about Krugman in Newsweek? “Obama’s Nobel Headache”

    “Though he was a scourge of the Bush administration, he has been critical, if not hostile, to the Obama White House.”

    Krugman hates this plan…

  226. Cindy says:

    Some harsh numbers on CA R/E – from Mish
    The post says no bottom until 2012.

    If my area is off 50% now, where will it be in 2012?

  227. LordJohnWarfen says:

    Re: commercial real estate. The next domino is about to fall. The only saving grace will be lenders willingness to modify terms.

    Last thing they want are borrowers giving the keys back. There is a gigantic game of chicken underway.

  228. NJGator says:

    Everything just peachy in the #1 HS in the state?

    Well-Regarded New Jersey High School to Use Drug-Sniffing Dogs

    MILLBURN, N.J. — The high school here, which was named the state’s best by a respected magazine last year, plans to begin using dogs to search for drugs on campus this spring.

    “We seek to discourage illegal substances from being brought into school and to show unequivocal support for those students who do ‘just say no,’ ” the principal of Millburn High, William S. Miron, and the district superintendent, Richard Brodow, wrote in an e-mail message to parents and students Friday afternoon. “I willingly risk student trust if it saves a single life.”

    In stepping up searches for drugs, Millburn will join scores of schools across New Jersey and the country. About 1,000 districts have introduced random tests for marijuana, cocaine, amphetamines and an assortment of other narcotics since the United States Supreme Court ruled in 2002 that schools could test students participating in extracurricular activities. A growing number also test for alcohol. Locally, West Essex Regional High School in North Caldwell, N.J., about 10 miles from Millburn, had two visits by canine patrols this year, neither netting any drugs.


  229. kettle1 says:


    you need to get the youth used to the police state. get em while they are young

  230. Essex says:

    dogs….not drugs…..

  231. lostinny says:

    246 Gator
    They won’t find anything when there is advanced warning.

  232. Cindy says:


    Commercial R/E –

    “Chinese retailer bids to keep bankrupt Gottscalks alive”

    This business, based out of Fresno, goes on the auction block tomorrow. They were to be liquidated – they are the anchor store for several malls. My local mall would be up a creek because they just lost Mervyns a few months ago.

    Anyway, the latest development is that a Chinese buyer will also bid on the business and would keep the stores open. Good news for us if that happens because 5,200 jobs are on the line.

    Wish us luck…CA that is.

  233. livinginpa says:

    As a long time observer and only occasional poster, I wonder is it possilbe that RE101 and The Sneaky Cat are one and the same? I mean they both seem to have similar rants, and pretend to be going after each other. They make no sense, really.

    And on the PA comments wherein there was a discussion of Lansdale vs Main Line et al. I just want to add that there is a vast landscape between the two incorporating nicer towns than Lansdale with very little attitude.

    That being said, however, Bucks has its own snobbery. The Bucks towns with attitude don’t quite employ the obvious tude of the Main Liners, but believe me it’s there. And Yikes, you just may not have been exposed to the tude in your town yet. After all, the neighbors hole up for the winter. Spring will be the big ice breaker. But believe me your town has an attitude in some parts. The funny thing is your town was way down in the pecking order some 40 years ago, but fast growth and development brought the sea change. So much McMansion building and retail shopping created the illusion of wealth for some people.

  234. The Sneaky Cat says:


    I am not Re101. Please, I just came on to give him some grief.

  235. kettle1 says:


    if you want some good doom and gloom to go along with your new mossbergm then here you go


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