New Jersey Home Price Tracker – April

The New Jersey Home Price Index Tracker has been updated to include:
* February S&P Case Shiller (Aggregate, Tiered, Condo)

(click to enlarge)

(click to enlarge)

S&P Case Shiller NY Metro Commutable Area Home Price Index

Low Tier (Under $300k) – Peaked in October 2006 and is down 20.53% from peak

Mid Tier ($300k-$445k) – Peaked in September 2006 and is down 17.7% from peak

High Tier (Over $445k) – Peaked in June 2006 and is down 14.55% from peak

Aggregate (Overall Market) – Peaked in June 2006 and is down 17.45% from peak

Condo-Only Index – Peaked in February 2006 and is down 9.35% from peak

NY Metro Area Aggregate Year over Year Changes
Feb 08 -6.69%
Mar 08 -7.48%
Apr 08 -7.98%
May 08 -7.74%
Jun 08-7.04%
Jul 08 -7.04%
Aug 08-6.61%
Sep 08 -7.13%
Oct 08 -7.71%
Nov 08 -8.71%
Dec 08 -9.15%
Jan 09 -9.70%
Feb 09 -10.15%

Unlike the broader market, which showed a slowing pace of price declines in February, the NY Metro Area saw price declines continue to accelerate to the fastest pace yet this cycle.

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404 Responses to New Jersey Home Price Tracker – April

  1. RayC says:

    First! Glorious First!

  2. Safeashouses says:


    Should the last 2 months on your table be 09?

  3. grim says:

    Yes, corrected.

  4. xmonger says:

    I am going to staple this chart on the forehead of the next open house realtor that tells there is an 8k credit and now is a great time to buy.

    I like charts.

  5. Shore Guy says:

    It is a GREAT time to buy.

  6. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Xanadu project lands on ‘Troubled Assets Radar’ list

    he Meadowlands Xanadu project has landed on a list any developer would surely prefer to avoid — the “Troubled Assets Radar” of Real Capital Analytics, a real estate research firm that analyzes the nation’s major markets.

    The long-delayed retail and entertainment project has joined a “troubled” New York Metro list that includes the former Linens ‘n’ Things headquarters in Clifton, a Ridgefield Park office complex, and the failed Centuria project in Fort Lee.

  7. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Local home prices declined 10.2 percent

    In Bergen County, according to statistics from the New Jersey Multiple Listing Service, prices dropped 12 percent and the volume of sales dropped 18 percent from February 2008 to February 2009. Home inventories also declined, probably because homeowners are waiting to put their homes on the market until conditions improve, said Bill Gilsenan, a director of the RealSource Association of Realtors in northwest Bergen County.

    Gilsenan said most of the market activity is in the lower end of the market, where buyers are venturing in, drawn by lower prices, low interest rates and an $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers.

    He also said while the number of completed sales declined significantly in February and March, those numbers reflect contracts signed at the end of 2008, after the autumn financial crisis brought activity to a crawl. In March, new contracts were about 8 percent below last year’s level, a more up-to-date measure that offers “reason to be optimistic about the upcoming months,” Gilsenan said.

  8. Happy Camper says:

    Richard Clarke:

    “That night, on 9/11, Rumsfeld came over and the others, and the president finally got back, and we had a meeting. And Rumsfeld said, You know, we’ve got to do Iraq, and everyone looked at him—at least I looked at him and Powell looked at him—like, What the hell are you talking about? And he said—I’ll never forget this—There just aren’t enough targets in Afghanistan. We need to bomb something else to prove that we’re, you know, big and strong and not going to be pushed around by these kind of attacks.

    And I made the point certainly that night, and I think Powell acknowledged it, that Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11. That didn’t seem to faze Rumsfeld in the least.
    It shouldn’t have come as a surprise. It really didn’t, because from the first weeks of the administration they were talking about Iraq. I just found it a little disgusting that they were talking about it while the bodies were still burning in the Pentagon and at the World Trade Center.”

  9. kettle1 says:


    what are your thoughts on inflation adjusting the CS data?

  10. Sybarite says:

    Good timing for these charts. IMO, we still have a ways to go. My ex-employer announced a voluntary leave period, with severance, which will be followed by an involuntary leave program: layoffs.

    In a remarkable coincidence, my current employer (in haughty BC) just sent a global email out today, announcing significant cost-reduction programs, which are designed to minimize staff reduction: layoffs here too. Those who stay, will enjoy flat salaries for 2010 as well.

    This is the medical device industry. If these 2 companies are any indicator, this area is bound to suffer price declines for much longer.

  11. Sean says:

    re:#11 – we need more bulldozers.

  12. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Since Gator picked up on it first, she gets first shout out.

    Ma petite fille nouveau est arrive’e adjourd hui. Elle soeur grande est tres heureux. J’elle donne une nom francais. Je suis desole’e pour mon francais pauvre.

  13. Clotpoll says:

    sean (12)-

    TIme to get long CAT?

  14. Hey U says:

    The 2nd wave is going to be much worse than the first wave. The #’s are staggering & this will kill any belief that we are out of this mess. We have a long way to go yet. Now might be a great time to buy. However, the future market will by far be the best of both worlds low prices & low interest rates when this 2nd wave hits…

  15. SG says:

    NJ Libertarian Party Selects Kenneth R. Kaplan for Governor

    On Sunday, the NJ Libertarian Party State Committee unanimously selected Kenneth Kaplan to be the party’s candidate for Governor. Born in Newark, the 61 year old Kaplan grew up in West Orange but currently resides in Parsippany. He is a graduate from Brandeis University and NYU Law School. For twenty-two years, he was associated with the Archie Schwartz Company but currently serves as President of KenKap Realty Corp., a company he founded after a six year term at Edgerton Realty.

    As Governor, Kaplan’s priorities are to phase out the state income tax and reduce the size and cost of government. Addressing affordable housing is one way he plans to solve this problem. Kaplan offers a creative solution to the decade’s long quest to create affordable housing in New Jersey. He wants the state to enact legislation to supersede local zoning ordinances, removing zoning barriers.

    “The current system prevents owners of single family homes from converting them to two family homes and the owners of two family homes from converting them to three families,” stated Kaplan. “This solution will solve the affordable housing crisis, not just for people moving into the new units, but also for many of whom might be senior citizens.”

    He says his plan will allow senior citizens to remain in homes that have become too large or expensive for their needs. He believes this will fix the affordable housing problem, without the expenditure of any tax dollars.

  16. Sean says:

    More on our new flu bug.

    Quote from the mayor of Mexico City.

    “What we have to do is avoid the propagation of the virus, its exponential growth, because it’s a new virus,” he said.

    “The next 10 days will be strategic in order to win the battle.”

    Do you hear that folks?

  17. NJGator says:

    Nom – C’est magnifique! Comment ca va la mere
    et la nouvelle bebe?

  18. safeashouses says:

    Why only deaths in Mexico?

    Could it be a combo of malnutrition and high air pollution? Maybe high altitude makes people more vulnerable too?

  19. sas says:

    swine flu, i’m scared.

    i better get the heck out of here.


  20. NJGator says:

    Les Gators sont tres heureux pour vous et votre famille.

  21. sas says:

    “Why only deaths in Mexico?”

    one time, i was down in mexico city outskirts, had a little accident, had to get stiched up on the OR table.

    They literally chased away the chickens before they plopped by ass on the table.

    so, no surprize to me that the deaths are in Mexico. Sanitary healthcare isn’t the greatest down there.

    but then again, with all the knucklehead physicans in the states with their over prescriptions, mistakes, and complete lack of common sense because they are trained robots in an indutrialized school whoms classes & protocols are written by Pharm companies & equipment manufactors.

    maybe I SHOULD go back to Mexico when I get sick. I just might be better off.

    American Drs… lol..
    these are the people who give C sections cause it shift change and they wanna be home by 5 o’clock to watch ER rerun episodes.

    you’re better of doing vodoo.

  22. Sean says:

    safeashouses – sanitation most likely Mexico city has water shortages regularly right now about 4 million people in that city have no running water right now.

  23. sas says:

    “you’re better off doing vodoo”


  24. Stu says:

    Congrats Nom!!! Time to lose sleep again :P

  25. sas says:

    oh yeah… real estate..
    forget about it, nowhere near a bottom.

    your staying put for sometime & property taxes will increase, no matter what any loose lip politican says.

    “yes we can”
    raise your taxes.

  26. ac says:

    still crazy. just lost out on a multiple bid which went above asking.

  27. NJGator says:

    For those of you non-Francophiles, Baby DePlume has arrived. Carry on.

  28. Sean says:

    congrats Nom

  29. Shore Guy says:


    Congrats. That said, December 31 wwould have been better for tax purposes.

    Enjoy the upcoming days of meconium.

  30. Sean says:

    You would think this place would be the safest in NJ.

  31. Firestormik says:

    from the previous thread:

    kettle1 says:
    April 28, 2009 at 4:04 pm

    Maybe that mineralizer is legit, but i wouldn’t touch it.
    Thank you for you sharing your opinion. My thoughts were something like that.
    I have no problem taking multivitamins, but would rather not to give them to the little one – he is getting a lot from fresh fruits anyway. Besides, all multivitamins are synthetically formulated.
    After doing some research, I’m going to try this
    40 drops per gallon should be enough.
    My only hope it doesn’t taste like cr@p.

  32. chicagofinance says:

    congrats nom…I hope everyone is holding it together…get some sleep while you can..

  33. cobbler says:

    [19] deaths in Mexico

    From what I am hearing, the total number of cases (including light and asymptomatic) in Mexico is in the 100s of thousands – this is from some statistical models extrapolating back from the # of cases here (with much better surveillance) and using the ratios of visitors to residents in various parts of Mexico. If true, the ~150 deaths and ~1,500 severe illnesses is actually fairly typical for a novel flu bug (~0.1% mortality).

  34. Firestormik says:

    32:Reading my own post. Cr@p. 7 years and I still cannot do it right.

  35. KareninCA says:

    So, Biden may be a criminal as well as a pea-brain. from the Bronte blog, via naked capitalism (sorry but I don’t know how to post links but this is easy to find):

    Bronte Capital
    There is a big world out there
    Tuesday, April 28, 2009
    Alleged fraudulent hedge fund associated with the Vice President’s family harasses blogger

    I wrote a post about Ponta Negra – a hedge fund that I thought was more likely than not to be fraudulent. I did not name Ponta Negra in the post but I put two of their marketing documents on the web and some people found them.

    I withdrew that post after threats from lawyers. I also removed the documents from the web.

    I have reposted the two marketing documents I have from Ponta Negra here and here and the first threat from the lawyer here.

    I have done this because Francesco Rusciano of Ponta Negra has formally had his assets frozen by a Federal Judge at the request of the SEC. Also see here for the formal charges.

    Anyway I asked the lawyers for the things that I would need to do due diligence on Ponta Negra – that is the identity of the auditor, permission to talk to the auditor, identity of the prime broker and permission to talk to the prime broker.

    I was denied. The lawyers argued that I was “just a blogger”. Their denial letter is here.

    The first marketing document however identified a supposed prime broker as Citigroup. I wrote to citigroup several times – and spoke to senior people in their government relations area and told Citigroup the entire story. I believe that Citigroup did not react appropriately to a fraud committed in their name.

    Anyway I will save you the suspense. All of this would not be the biggest story on my blog except that Ponta Negra is marketed out of the office of Paradigm Global – a fund of hedge funds owned and controlled by Hunter Biden and James Biden. Hunter and James are the son and brother of Vice President Joe Biden respectively.

    You can find this several ways.

    1. Ponta Negra gives its address in the second marketing document as 650 Fifth Avenue, 17th Floor. This is the same address as Paradigm Global.

    2. The contact on the first marketing document for Ponta Negra is Jeffry Schneider. This is the same Jeffry Schneider who is quoted in this Wall Street Journal article as being the marketer for Paradigm Global and effectively spins for the Bidens.

    3. This SEC filing gives an address and phone number for Ponta Negra. The address and phone number is a number through the switchboard of Paradigm Global and until recently it was a way of getting into contact with Ponta Negra.

    At a minimum Paradigm Global – a fund of fund managers owned the Vice President’s family housed an alleged fraudster. The alleged fraudster used the same phone number as the Vice President’s family business, the same marketing machine and traded off the good name of the Vice President’s family business.

    There are numerous posts about Ponta Negra, Paradigm and other assorted entities (Onyx Capital for one) that I have withheld posting on. I will put them up as a series. The ties between the Vice President’s family and some very questionable dealings are very strong.

    The next step for the SEC has the surname Biden. Are they up to it?

    To be continued.


  36. KareninCA says:

    congrats, nom!!!:)

  37. Cindy says:

    Karina @36 – Here is your link.

  38. grim says:

    From the Press of Atlantic City:

    County’s homes overvalued by 42%, survey says

    Atlantic County has the dubious distinction of being the only housing market in the nation that is extremely overvalued, according to the volatile IHS Global Insight survey.

    The current survey says the median home price of $246,200 in the county is overvalued 42 percent. Global Insight figures the median home in the county should sell for $143,800.

    Yet in 2005, the firm’s formula – based on population density, income levels, interest rates and special character – figured the Atlantic County price should be $185,200.

    Such wild swings can undermine the belief in such estimates and forecasts.

    Hugh V. Merkle, real estate broker with Prudential Fox & Roach Realtors in Stone Harbor, found the Global Insight numbers tough to swallow.

    “I don’t know how they could come up with that,” Merkle said Monday. “I think Margate and Ventnor are wonderful values. They never had the gigantic spurt in prices like Ocean City and Avalon and Stone Harbor.”

    The survey says Cape May County homes are overvalued by about 30 percent, with a median price of $307,600 when the survey says the price should be $216,200. In 2005, Global Insight said the county’s median home price should be the same as neighboring Atlantic County’s at $185,200.

    Cumberland County homes currently are overvalued 22 percent, it says, at $166,800 instead of $129,900.

  39. Cindy says:

    Congratulations, Nom and Mom. Name? details? Does that make a four year difference? Enjoy!

  40. Cindy says:

    Grim – Re your post #200 on 4/28 –
    Thank you for reposting. Kettle and I had quite the discussion about the implications a week or so ago.

    I believe it shows the folly of engineering (through tax benefits and Congressional activity) the goal of increased home ownership. We have taken away our “mobility” at a time when we need it most to deal with rising unemployment. In the past, as a flexible society, people have been able to find new job opportunities and make needed changes to maximize their potential.

    Being tied to a home they cannot sell in order to follow job possibilities will have an impact on this recovery.

  41. grim says:


    we says:
    April 28, 2009 at 6:03 pm

    When things get bad, people tend to move to urban areas in search of employment.

    Really? Maybe it is different this time.

    From the Boston Globe:

    Locked in place with the housing downturn

    There are few things more American than wanting to buy your own home.

    And one of those things is the freedom to move where you want when you want, whether to a bigger house across town or to a new home and life across the country

    But that simple freedom is now under siege from the housing downturn, with new figures released by federal government showing more people stayed put last year than since the early 1960s.

    The Census Bureau reports the nation’s mobility rate fell to 11.9 percent, with rates of movement between states half of what they were at the start of the decade.

    From the NY Times:

    Slump Creates Lack of Mobility for Americans

    Stranded by the nationwide slump in housing and jobs, fewer Americans are moving, the Census Bureau said Wednesday.

    The bureau found that the number of people who changed residences declined to 35.2 million from March 2007 to March 2008, the lowest number since 1962, when the nation had 120 million fewer people.

    Experts said the lack of mobility was of concern on two fronts. It suggests that Americans were unable or unwilling to follow any job opportunities that may have existed around the country, as they have in the past. And the lack of movement itself, they said, could have an impact on the economy, reducing the economic activity generated by moves.

  42. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (41)-

    So this time around, the Joads can’t hit the road.

    They can just build trash barrel fires in their backyard.

    Congrats, Plume! Enjoy those late nights…

  43. Cindy says:

    Guest Post – Joe Peek – Univ. of Kentucky

    “Fools Rush in to Ease Market-To-Market Rules”

    Love this line:

    “The time has come for transparency to replace the “parency” of government support of non-viable firms, financial or non-financial. The “convoy system” did not work in Japan during their “Lost Decade,” and should not be expected to work here.”

    Me talking –

    In a way I have come to expect banks to do what they do – make a profit and be greedy. I do, however feel sick that our government representatives have been doing nothing to check them or stop them.

    The only way I see out of this is to toss out Congress. If the folks don’t let them know they are out of a job if they don’t get some representation, the banks just keep winning.

  44. Cindy says:

    (43) Clot – In away – yeah. The folks stuck in a house have to work two/ three part-time jobs, take a serious hit to their lifestyle or both. The landscape is different now that we have saddled so many with mortgages.

    My hairdresser stayed here and her construction- working husband moved to Texas with the kids. She is to follow once the house is sold. I fully expect her to “walk away” when it doesn’t.

  45. Cindy says:

    “Obama Orders Probe of Flyover” WSJ

    I caught Bloomberg on TV. That man was MAD!

  46. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (44)-

    The problem here is the realization that gubmint does not run the country. Banks and WS do. They are not likely to fire themselves.

  47. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Congrats nom

  48. Cindy says:

    (47) Clot – “…that gubmint does not run the country….

    I’m starting to get that. What I don’t get is why we haven’t tossed these yahoos out on their collective ears.

    They passed up numerous opportunities to rein in the financial shenanigans.

    AND they are still there.

    Any future “get out the vote” campaign should have as its motto “No taxation without representation.” We are right back where we started 200+ years ago.

  49. reinvestor101 says:

    I’m so glad the that damn turncoat Arlene Spector left our party. Next we have to go after Olympia Snow and Susan Collins. There’s no room in our party for the non-pure. Further, if Mac doesn’t tell that loud mouthed daughter of his to shut the hell up, he can go as well. She has gotten on my last damn nerves and is making me come to the belief that Mac is unpure.

    We must remain ideologically pure and if that means purging the unpure, so be it. We need more republicans like me. No one’s rock ribs are bigger and harder than mine.

  50. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    So at what time does the gubmint’s fantasy GDP come out?

  51. stan says:

    That af one flyover has to be one of the most boneheaded things I have seen in some time.

    That guy Cabrera will be canned by June 1.

  52. silera says:

    The pentagon could have just photoshopped the image and pocketed the savings.

  53. Clotpoll says:

    stan (52)-

    That flyover is proof-positive that absolutely no one in gubmint above the rank of janitor cares one whit about the actual citizens of this country. We are simply management problems and impediments to their dream of the perfection of the ultimate parasite/host system…an uber-class that builds and sustains itself by drinking the blood of saturnine fools like us.

  54. Frank says:

    SRS bagholders, welcome to 24, I will see you at 18.

  55. Cindy says:

    (55) Frank, you have absolutely no class.

  56. chicagofinance says:

    The end is nigh….a breakdown of common societal decorum….

  57. Cindy says:!.html

    From Denninger’s site yesterday – hour long C-SPAN presentation (they never talk about the book.) At least try to catch the last 20 minutes.

  58. we says:

    #42 The guy that walked away from him home in Detroit or Ohio or Nevada because he has no job or prospects will move to East or West Coast looking for work.

    Any case study of 3rd World Country will show you, when things get bad all over the Country, people gravitate to urban centers in hope for any work.

  59. Cindy says:

    That link didn’t work – Here it is @ Youtube.

    Janet Tavakovi – Tavakovi Structural Finance from Chicago.

  60. we says:

    Economy contracted by 6.1% in first quarter – much worse than expected – after falling 6.3% in the fourth quarter, government says.

  61. Joey says:


    That argument does not hold water. Jobs are being lost in NJ, not created. People from Detroit, Ohio or Nevada are going to move to New Jersey and work for whom? Who’s hiring?

    And these people that are moving here a going to buy homes as soon as they get here?

  62. 3b says:

    #7 grim:reason to be optimistic about the upcoming months,” Gilsenan said.

    This is the same clown that few weeks ago in Sunday real estate section of The Record that said Bergen Co was insulated.

  63. Joey says:

    the above is in response to 59

  64. Cindy says:

    we@ 59 – I’m with Joey.

    People are fleeing California.

  65. stan says:

    Clot: Agreed…..I have been trying to imagine the rationale in ok’ing the maneuver. No one with a care would have ever allowed it….one month of outrage, internal investigation, mr cabrera manning lighthouse in the aleutians. That’s it….

  66. BC Bob says:

    “And these people that are moving here a going to buy homes as soon as they get here?”

    Joey [62],

    Tent camps, Liberty State Park.

  67. 3b says:

    #27 ac:just lost out on a multiple bid which went above asking.

    Nah, you did nto lose, you won.

  68. PGC says:

    #57 CF

    What do you take issue with? The guy that says WB is not torture and is willing to be WBed for charity, or the guy willing to take him up on it.

  69. Joey says:

    Bob, 67,

    Anyone know if Tent State University is still going on at Rutgers this week? They might have room for a few more tents there

  70. BC Bob says:

    “(55) Frank, you have absolutely no class.”


    Look at the source, the King Bag-Holder.

  71. John says:

    today’s B rated bond of the day!

    CIT GROUP INC INTERNOTES BOOK 6.05000% 05/15/2013 CALL
    Price (Ask) 38.750
    Yield to Worst (Ask) 35.955%

  72. kettle1 says:


    What I don’t get is why we haven’t tossed these yahoos out on their collective ears.

    95% of the population has no idea what is really going on. you are in the top 5% of the population in terms of awareness. Even if you take the time to explain the current situation to the general population at a 5th grade level, the majority will refuse to act as it would require all sorts of government handouts to disappear or be drastically cut.

    Think of the average joe as an addict and things make much more sense. The average joe is habitualized to having big brother run the majority of their life for them. Their employer tells them when to be at work and what to where, Dr Phil tells them how to feel, Fox news tells them when to be afraid and the government will take care of you and protect you from the evil dark skinned foriegners.

    It has been said that a nations politicians are a reflection of the society. In order to toss out the current crop of crooks, the nation must first look in the mirror and realize that american idol and a pimped out navigator are not productive or fulfilling pursuits in life unless your goal is to be a wage slave consumer.

  73. Sastry says:


    Congrats. Google translated it to “Grand daughter,” wrongly I presume.


  74. BC Bob says:


    You must be on to something. You’re right, where’s the recession?

    “NEW YORK, April 27 (Reuters) – New York City’s net personal income tax revenues plunged 51 percent in the first 24 days of April, compared with the same period a year ago, the city comptroller’s office said on Monday.”

  75. BC Bob says:


    Congrats on your granddaughter.

  76. John says:

    Well a lot of my friends on wall street did not get cash bonuses this year instead they got deferred comp in stock that vests down the road.

    BC Bob says:
    April 29, 2009 at 9:04 am

    You must be on to something. You’re right, where’s the recession?

    “NEW YORK, April 27 (Reuters) – New York City’s net personal income tax revenues plunged 51 percent in the first 24 days of April, compared with the same period a year ago, the city comptroller’s office said on Monday.”

  77. we says:

    grim #77 in moderation

  78. zieba says:

    RE: 59 we

    “Any case study of 3rd World Country will show you, when things get bad all over the Country, people gravitate to urban centers in hope for any work.”

    ….except in China where there is a mass migration away from urban centers (sans paycheck) into the rice fields and mountains.

    If a NC banker gets canned from his gig he won’t roll into town put down roots and pick up a job. Same goes for a
    truck drivers, assembly workers and ex GM-employees.

    The migration you speak of occurs in good times when there is money to be had. When times are bad NYC is a shark tank of local talent.

  79. BC Bob says:

    “they got deferred comp in stock that vests down the road.”

    What road?

  80. Sean says:

    Just remember who is in charge.

    Lobbisyts 1

    Obama 0

    The proposal to give bankruptcy judge the authority to cram-down, or reduce, mortgage debt was stripped from the Bill in the Senate.

  81. we says:

    zeiba #80

    When unemployment in Michigan, Ohio, RI is in double digits, there is little to hope for. Many of these guys drive down to lower unemployment states to find work, includes bankers and truck drivers. When BoA closes shop in NC, a banker knows that best chance to find similar work in is NYC area, not NC.

    A construction worker has better shot at finding work in NJ than MI or OH. I am starting to see more dumpsters in driveways lately.

  82. Joey says:

    we, 82,

    So even if out of work people move here from other states, you seem to imply they are buying homes when they get here. Correct me if I’m wrong.

    What bank would give an unemployed person a loan in this environment? Or are they buying homes on the equity of the homes they just sold? It just doesn’t make any sense.

  83. we says:

    Joey 85

    I am not implying that at all. However, they will get an apartment and someday buy a house. My point is, historically, people gravitate to urban areas when things get bad where chance or finding any work is higher than one-cow-town USA.

    China an exception since you can’t move around as you please, it’s not a free Country.

  84. Stu says:

    Nice GDP numbers. Seems like the only thing that is up these days is the stock market and Nom at 3:30am.

  85. BC Bob says:

    “What bank would give an unemployed person a loan in this environment?”


    Yes, a pipe dream. Unless, of course, we apply bubble standards, qualifications.

  86. 3b says:

    #86 Stu: Goota love it, GDP down 6.1% down stock market up!!

    First the new explanation was down is OK, as long as down was not as much down as expected.

    Now down is down, but who cares stock market is still up.

    Seems like a bear market trap to me. I still believe we test 6000 on the DOW, before we can talk about hitting bottom, because old school me still believes that there can be no bottom, until down is no longer down.

  87. Does the Fed have any bullets left?

  88. Sean says:

    re #80 – We

    Just how much money does it cost to relocate a banker from NC to NYC? Do you have any idea?

    Factor in selling an underwater home in NC at a loss and writing a check for 50k.

    Another 15-30k to move the furniture, depending on how many boxes of crap you have.

    Then you need a deposit for a new home of
    20% down. Say a reasonably 500k cape in River Edge NJ, add in another 100k.

    Now we are talking some serious change here, about 180k-200k.

    Even if a job is secured by one of your fictional out of work bankers, unless the new bank is paying for relocation few cab afford to relocate the whole whole kit and kaboodle here without making some extreme lifestyle changes like divorce and living in a 1 Br apt in Hoboken.

  89. 3b says:

    #82 we: I knoe quite a few cosntruction guys in North Jersey/Rockland, all local long time guys, and their business is off dramatically.

    I do not see laid off construction guys coming to the NYC metro area for work.

    I am sure you are seeing dumpsters in drive ways, because alot of these construction guys are taking work they would not have 2 years ago,and doing jobs in some cases a few hundred bucks above cost

  90. 3b says:

    #90 sean:Say a reasonably 500k cape in River Edge NJ, add in another 100k.

    Hey careful about River Edge, OK. Becasue our proverbial POS capes now have asking prices of 459k to 479K!! They are not selling of course, but we have them.

  91. Joey says:

    And yet rents are down. When my lease is up this summer, I will make my landlord reduce rent 10% a month or move to an identical, yet cheaper unit down the street.

  92. John says:

    Stk market is worried about rising interest rates, low GDP is good for FS firms. Low mortgage rates, cheap financing is the ticket to recovery. High GDP means higher rates which will destroy the recovery in FS. Also insurance companies own huge amounts of bonds to finance life and annuity claims, rising interest rates would destroy them plus it would destroy cars and housing, low GDP is just collateral damage to save whole industries.

  93. Stu says:


    I continue to watch corporate earnings and they are really, really bad. EPS forecasts have been lowered for four quarters in a row now and this is in addition to all of the inventory bloodletting and employee benefit cuts as well as headcount trimming. Check out this chart…

    Meanwhile, the market continues to sit at its long term average P/E if not slightly above it. This is without the easy money available over the last 6 years, housing/401k values collapsing, future tax liabilities that are unrivaled, growing unemployment, etc.

    If you ask me, your 6,000 DJIA call is a little too generous.

    Looks like if I’m going to eek out any gains in SRS/FXP, they’re going to be of the long-term nature once again.

    Patience is all you need.

  94. we says:

    #91 Sean, a Banker will move to NYC if all options are dead in NC. Just like a Senior Banker will move to Singapore rather than take a significant pay cut in NYC or London.

    #92 3b, when there is NO construction work in MI or OH, a guy would not mind moving into his brothers place in Newark and looking to pickup any little construction work going on in NJ.

  95. Sean says:

    re#89 Tosh – “Does the Fed have any bullets left?”

    Fed has started buying Tresuries, and if they follow their Deflation Playbook the Fed will print money to buy corporate bonds, stocks, mortgages, and so on, all as promised.

  96. John says:

    Stu, my only worry is people are going to want to take some profit off the table. We were so far down and we have come back a good bit, people are scared to go back to March 9th, at first wiff of a downturn people may run for exits.

  97. BC Bob says:

    “Low mortgage rates, cheap financing is the ticket to recovery.”


    The one and only ticket is inflation.

  98. Stu says:

    John (98):

    “…my only worry is people are going to want to take some profit off the table.”

    Certainly most insiders have already done so, which is a majorly bearish signal. There was very little insider buying at the bottom (as well as cancellation of internal stock buy backs) and a whole lot of institutional selling and insider selling in the 7,000s.

    Of course, as a janitor (collecting a humongous pension) I know too much already.

  99. HEHEHE says:

    “Low mortgage rates, cheap financing is the ticket to recovery.”

    Except they’ve had that for over a year now and GDP keeps declining:) It’s like taking the stairs to the sewer instead of the elevator.

  100. Joey says:

    Beer Credit: The cause of and solution to all of life’s problems!

  101. zieba says:

    we, sean, 3b;

    I think we lost focus. We’s original post was in response to Grim’s posting about the lack of mobility. To be fair, I don’t think we was making a case for steady house prices in NYC as a result of NC bankers and MI painters coming here and gobbling up inventory.

    We’s argument was that unemployed people in the Midwest can simply up’n’move to NYC in hopes of scoring a job invalidating Grim’s post about a lack of mobility in the RE market.

    I think Sean’s post (90) was on point regarding the costs that need to be borne before such a move can occur. The husband can seek a job in another state and send money back to his family but he still gets his mail and files taxes in MI.

    We: there’s only a certain subset of the recently unemployed that can even contemplate this decision. There are many skills that are not a good fit to the local economies.

  102. zieba says:


    April 24 (Bloomberg) — Executives and insiders at U.S. companies are taking advantage of the steepest stock market gains since 1938 to unload shares at the fastest pace since the start of the bear market.

    … While the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 26 percent from a 12-year low on March 9, CEOs, directors and senior officers at U.S. companies sold $353 million of equities this month, or 8.3 times more than they bought, data compiled by Washington Service, a Bethesda, Maryland-based research firm, show. That’s a warning sign because insiders usually have more information about their companies’ prospects than anyone else, according to William Stone at PNC Financial Services Group Inc.

    “They should know more than outsiders would, so you could take it as a signal that there is something wrong if they’re selling,” said Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC’s wealth management unit, which oversees $110 billion in Philadelphia. “Whether it’s a sustainable rebound is still in question. I’d prefer they were buying.”

    source: bloomberg

  103. #97 – Sean – In the myriad of programs that the Fed has created, I thought they were already doing all of that. I took that their direct purchase of Treas. as a last desperate attempt to hang on.

  104. Sean says:

    re#106 Tosh – buying treasuries is from the Fed’s 1940s playbook, to force down long-term yields, leading consumers and businesses to spend instead of save.

    How well is that working?

  105. reinvestor101 says:

    What??? Are you trying to call me stupid? I know what’s going on and what’s happening is that O and his band of liberals are in charge and that’s the main problem.

    There’s nothing wrong with the government (not gubmit) helping real estate investors, bankers and others who have have done yeoman’s work in driving this economy. Afterall, we pay the majority of the taxes, so why shouldn’t we get the majority of the help.

    Also, Foxnews is a good source of information and far better than MSNBC or CNN. If it wasn’t for Foxnews, I’d be totally ignorant of what’s really going on.

    kettle1 says:
    April 29, 2009 at 8:58 am

    What I don’t get is why we haven’t tossed these yahoos out on their collective ears.

    95% of the population has no idea what is really going on. you are in the top 5% of the population in terms of awareness. Even if you take the time to explain the current situation to the general population at a 5th grade level, the majority will refuse to act as it would require all sorts of government handouts to disappear or be drastically cut.

  106. Outofstater says:

    Nom – Congrats!!!!
    Anecdata: Hired my usual painting co. to do some work. He said they were backed up a couple of weeks. He still hasn’t called to schedule a day.
    This morning: Drove by a commercial intersection near a nice subdivision with a golf course. On the corner was a guy with a cardboard sign – “Will work – can do anything. Need money.”

  107. #109 – I heart u so much!

  108. skep-tic says:

    this is the big down year for NYC area prices. I think prices will continue to decline in 2010, but not by as much. Flat nominal prices for several years thereafter

  109. zieba says:


    All I see is suckers flocking to Arizona and Nevada for their dream homes in the desert and condos in Florida. Others moving from dead center America to slightly right center America for their faux-banking keyboard jockey back office gigs. Possibly following the advice of that nut job that used to post here. At any rate, per the map you posted, the in/out flows to the NYC area remain relatively neutral considering the remaining states.

    That red NE part of PA? Those are the NYC poor buying vacation trailers with funny money.
    The Poconos = Bronx Riviera.

  110. Sean says:

    re:#109 – reinvestor – “If it wasn’t for Foxnews, I’d be totally ignorant of what’s really going on.”

    reinvestor – I will give $1,000 to the charity of your choice if you allow Clot to water board you for 1 minute.

  111. skep-tic says:


    live in the now man

  112. BC Bob says:

    “There’s nothing wrong with the gubmit helping real estate investors”


    I hope some of that TARP is coming your way. You actually deserve it.

  113. kettle1 says:

    reinvetros 109

    LOL, you really are good at comic relief. your post takes trolling to an art form!

  114. zieba says:

    Before this board runs its course and we’re all living in pristine sprawling properties purchased for pennies on the dollar (or not), I demand that reinvestor101 identify himself by his true board handle!

  115. we says:

    114 zeiba,

    Whatever the reason, people won’t move back to the midwest unless Factories open up again or farming becomes highly lucrative. If you look at South America, Asia or Africa, you will see rapid urbanization during bad economic times. quite likely to happen here.

  116. Oh, and congratulations to Nom and the Mrs!

  117. reinvestor101 says:

    My ass is in a damn sling, so my favorite charity is me. Tell me where the damn water and the $ 1000 is and I’ll be there.

    Sean says:
    April 29, 2009 at 10:27 am

    reinvestor – I will give $1,000 to the charity of your choice if you allow Clot to water board you for 1 minute.

  118. Sean says:

    Where is bi

    He said the recession was over.

  119. Victorian says:

    Double your money in 1 Day!!! Make that downpayment grow.

  120. A.West says:

    retard101 is a postmodern troll, in that he’s transparently a figment of someone’s imagination, yet that person refuses to admit that the shadow puppet isn’t “as real as a heart attack”.

    A bit like the character Gradus in Nabokov’s “Pale Fire”. A secondary character invented by an invented and delusional author.

  121. Qwerty says:

    Fabulous charts.

    The first one tells the whole story… nowhere near a “bottom” and far more pain to come.

  122. zieba says:


    I disagree with you.

    First, the map is for data obtained 2000-2008. It does not represent 2006 through present.

    Second, the migration trends shown on the map you posted are clearly result of a mad dash for housing via cheap money. They DO NOT represent a migration for jobs. Remember, being employed was not a prerequisite for obtaining the keys to your very own 2,500 crapbox in the middle of the desert. That said, most of these jobs were boom driven and no longer exist.

    These people aren’t going back to the Midwest; they’re going down. An angry and desperate subset of the population does not go down without a fight.

  123. skep-tic says:


    “Fabulous charts.

    The first one tells the whole story… nowhere near a “bottom” and far more pain to come.”

    you can also see how the slope on the graph gets way steeper at the end of 2008. As grim noted, the pace of decline has greatly accelerated since Nov. So it is possible that we may be nearer to a bottom than it would seem, but only due to the speed with which prices are now dropping.

  124. zieba says:

    Lastly, what do you consider urban?

    That map shows people moving to boom driven urban towns. Phoenix? Las Vegas? San Diego? Tampa? Atlanta? Come on! Some of these places are going to be ghost towns.

    Cities like NY, SF, BOS, LA remain neutral.

    The lost ones were simply lured into areas where subprime lenders operated baited with the promise of a job and the good life.


  125. we says:

    zeiba, yes these people are NOT moving back to the midwest and as Phoenix, Las Vegas, Tampa, Atlanta, become ghost towns, the people move to established Urban areas such as NYC, LA, DC. Atleast, that is what Human History shows.

  126. bi says:

    122#, by my measurement, the recession is over. look at S&P. they are celabrating it.

  127. Qwerty says:

    RE: Happy Camper’s Richard Clarke

    Your thoughts on Richard Clarke when he wasn’t trying to sell a book?

    The Washington Post
    January 23, 1999; Page A02

    Official Cites Gains Against Bin Laden

    By Vernon Loeb

    Richard A. Clarke, the Clinton administration’s senior counterterrorism official, provided new information in defense of President Clinton’s decision to fire Tomahawk cruise missiles at the El Shifa pharmaceutical plant in Khartoum, Sudan, in retaliation for Osama bin Laden’s role in the Aug. 7 embassy bombings.

    While U.S. intelligence officials disclosed shortly after the missile attack that they had obtained a soil sample from the El Shifa site that contained a precursor of VX nerve gas, Clarke said that the U.S. government is “sure” that Iraqi nerve gas experts actually produced a powdered VX-like substance at the plant that, when mixed with bleach and water, would have become fully active VX nerve gas.

    Clarke said U.S. intelligence does not know how much of the substance was produced at El Shifa or what happened to it. But he said that intelligence exists linking bin Laden to El Shifa’s current and past operators, the Iraqi nerve gas experts, and the National Islamic Front in Sudan.

  128. BC Bob says:


    S&P’s and a recession correlation? Interesting theory. How did it work recently, July, Oct, Nov? Yeah, I know, this time it’s different.

  129. Sean says:

    re: #131 Querty – “Operation Stain Remover”

  130. Herring123 says:

    I actually agree with Bi, but for other reasons (the stock market is not a good reflection of the real economy – housing prices peaked in ’05/06 and related mayhem began shortly thereafter but the stock market didn’t tank ’till end of ’07). All my laid off 25-35 year old investment banker type friends who were laid off from banks have since gotten jobs with comparable salaries, albeit with distressed debt and related firms, etc. Can the restructuring biz save NYC (and north jersey)?

  131. zieba says:

    OK, so, I am a underemployed zombie living in the Midwest, a remnant of the industrial era. I sign a funny money document without reading, pack my stuff in a box and move to my brand new house in NV or AZ. I work at some distribution center for a few years, buy a hummer some $300 jeans and tile my bathroom with marble. (the premium treatment….walls, floors, ceiling faucet…everything) Then one day I wake up and realize that my neighbors are all gone and every house on the block has a neon yellow/green foreclosure notice stapled to its front door. Slightly bummed I drive to work in my leased car but upon arrival I’m told to pack my stuff and vacate the premises before lunchtime. I go home, drive down my empty block having just been fired from my boom gig and……

    I need you to finish the story, because I’m a bit fuzzy about how I end up in an established city like NYC/SF in a job that pays the bills.

  132. d2b says:

    John 98-
    First wiff of bad news.
    For almost a month it’s been all bad news. On a day when GDP was way under estimates and it was announced that 6 banks failed the rigged stress tests the market is up

  133. 3b says:

    #94 John: That is a bunch of crap. You cannot just make this up as you go along.

    So now GDP long the the indicator for an economy’s health no longer matters? Stop yourself!

  134. we says:

    I have no money and no credit. I moved to NV or AZ when things were happening there, now I will move to NY or LA where something is happening while nothing is happening where I am. Everyone finds a job in NYC, may not be to their liking, but everyone can find something here.

  135. HEHEHE says:

    Blowing out the shorts stop limits. The rest is window dressing. Give it a few days for the realization that green shoots=blowing smoke up one’s @ss

  136. 3b says:

    #96 we: All this assumes there would be banker jobs in Singapore, or anywhere else for that matter. And if there are, how many 100’s, 1000’s?

    #91 Sean, a Banker will move to NYC if all options are dead in NC. Just like a Senior Banker will move to Singapore rather than take a significant pay cut in NYC or London.

  137. zieba says:

    RE: 138

    I am speechless.

    /end of thread

  138. 3b says:

    #112 skeptic: I think we are in for substanial decliens at least through the end of 2010.

    And than flat for years after.

  139. zieba says:

    Ok, I’m going to pull a Sastry and keep going…

    We, you moved to Arizona with funny money!!! There is NO MORE FUNNY MONEY to go around, you’d be lucky enough to scrape together enough money for a down payment. What about your debts? How will you undo that ball and chain?

    Where are all these jobs? Jobs are leaving NYC if anything. Especially at that level, secretary to small company on the outskirts of town, distribution center in southern NJ, furniture salesman on RT. 4, car salesman on Sylvan Avenue, UPS guy in Secaucus… all these jobs are disappearing.

  140. 3b says:

    #128 zieba: According to yesterday’s Case/Shiller report (or is it Chiller?), prices in the Phoenix are are down 50% from their 2006 peak!!! 50%!!!

  141. Sean says:

    re: #138 – we

    Is that the new American Dream to become a migrant worker?

  142. 3b says:

    #129 we; You amy be right, but move to this are and do what?

    I mean if that is the case, than upstate NY, should be empty, as that area has been in economic decline for years. (the population is in decline, but there are still people up there)

    If you would like to see some real povery, take a look at the economic stats for St, lawrence Co in upstate NY.

  143. 3b says:

    #130 bi: So your measuement is the S&P to determine that the recession is over? You are joking? Right?

  144. BC Bob says:

    Zieba [143],

    Repo man?

  145. Sean says:

    I bet Timmay wishes he had his nice quiet job back running the NY Fed and eating dinner at the 21 Club.

  146. BC Bob says:

    3b [147],

    That’s the joke, he’s not joking.

  147. 3b says:

    #134 herring: You a ree that the recession is over, because friends have got new jobs with similiar salaries? Just asking.

    These new start up firms dealing distressed debt are paying comparable salaries? I am to say the least skeptical regarding the comparable salaries comment.

  148. Stu as bi says:

    Market is forward looking.

  149. 3b says:

    #138 we: Do not be so sure, NYC Had it’s largest one month increase in unemployment from Feb to March.

    Lots of unemployed 40+ year olds out looking for jobs,and lots of newly minted college grads. It is not easy.

  150. Victorian says:

    From Bill King –

    The window for stocks to rally is closing. The most bullish seasonal, the propensity of stocks to rally from November 1 to April 30 (particularly small caps and tech), ends on Thursday. The short-term upward seasonal bias (end-of-month & start-of-month) ends on Friday.

    Technical indicators on stocks and major indices are negative or rolling over because the momentum of the rally that commenced in mid-March has dissipated and volume remains soft…Banks, abetted by FASB accounting changes and other facilities, are issuing beaucoup securities. The Treasury is issuing like crazy and the May refunding looms…Insider selling is exploding.

  151. 3b says:

    #150 Bc Bob: I know,and it is frightening!!

  152. Interesting and useful info – thanks for informing all of us. Emily

  153. Shore Guy says:

    Off topic question:

    Does anyone here have any experience, good or bad, with the following guitars:

    Seagul S6 Acoustic

    Takamine EF-350SMC-SB or Takamine EF341SC Acoustic-Electric

    Feel free to opine here or get my e-mail from Grim.


  154. BC Bob says:

    “Does anyone here have any experience, good or bad, with the following guitars”


    Have you checked with Nils?

  155. skep-tic says:

    interesting article in the WSJ today in part about how InBev in taking over Anheiser Busch is drastically reducing expenditure on advertising. Between fewer ads for Budweiser and fewer for GM ad agencies in NYC must be taking a major hit right now

  156. skep-tic says:

    also consider the impact on TV and other media based in NYC

  157. PA Bound says:

    Congrats to Mr. & Mrs. De Plume

  158. jcer says:

    I see the opposite, of people coming here. Everyone I know who is not from NYC is cutting and running. Even with a decrease in cost of living, it is still astronomically expensive. They can move to NC or some other sunbelt state and rent a 2 bdr apt for $800. Additionally a friend of mine in pharm research in NC told me yeah we had some small layoffs but we are hiring again next month. Why you ask because the jobs in high wage states are going to cheaper places.

  159. Shore Guy says:


    We haven’t chatted in awhile. Why? Does he play one of the Takamine models? I guy I know (high-end broker) recomended these three as good basic models.

  160. Qwerty says:

    RE: So it is possible that we may be nearer to a bottom than it would seem, but only due to the speed with which prices are now dropping.

    If you’re right, perhaps near in duration, but certainly not in price.

    Prices are still sky high, and sellers remain delusional (along with those buying today at minor discounts).

  161. Herring123 says:

    By no means is the recession over, but deals are happening – entitites are buying distressed debt, the credit markets aren’t as frozen as they once were. Certainly there’s a ways to go, but I’m seeing anecdotal evidence of progress.

  162. Victorian says:

    Herring123 –

    As much as I would like to agree with you, I think this is an effect of the massive amounts of stimulus provided by the Fed/government.
    What happens when the well runs dry? In a 70% consumer based economy, with rising unemployment, I see a very bleak future. We cannot return to the debt-based “growth” model of the last 30 years, the consumer has begun to deleverage and will continue to do so for quite a while.

    Unless we create jobs in the “real” economy, I see no hope. We may have pulled back from the abyss, but we may linger on the cliff for quite a while.

  163. 3b says:

    #165 herring: but I’m seeing anecdotal evidence of progress.

    I would agree with that, but as yous ay a ong way to go. And even when we hit bottom, the recovery will be slow long and anemic.

    No quick fixes out there, even if this were an ordinary recession, which of course it is not.

  164. Victorian says:

    OT –

    We were entertaining a friend at a Cuban restaurant in Montclair yesterday and the place was packed! (on a Tuesday night). I guess we still have a ways to go before we reach a Cali-like situation.

  165. Alap says:

    im startin to give up on this market. all the numbers are pretty bad, yet the markets just keep going up. GDP falls over 6%, market rallies. 6 out of 19 banks fail stress tests, banks rally. wtf is going on

  166. Escape From NJ says:


    I would go with either of the Takamine. I found that with acoustics you get what you pay for. If you have been playing for a while or plan to, I would suggest saving up and getting a Martin, Taylor or Gibson. I had a Breedlove which was a good guitar. Either way make sure that a least the top is all wood and not laminate.

    My 2 cents.

  167. we says:

    Only anecdotal evidence: attended a wedding where they easily dropped $80,000 +++. Also, line of customers waiting for mall to open on a Sunday.

  168. 3b says:

    John: If you hurry, hurry, maybe we could still have your Memorial Day recesion over party at this wonderful hoem where attention to detail means everything.

    All of this in a blue ribbon Bergen Co. train for just slightly under 800K, with a 20K+ tax bill a year. Dreams can come true.

  169. BC Bob says:

    we [171],

    Funny, I attended a Springsteen concert last Friday. Hard to believe, it was sold out. In Hartford, no less. Go figure.

  170. 3b says:

    #172 John: I would also like to point out, the sellers are extremely motivated,and understand that prices have corrected.

    It was purchased in February of 2008 for 815K, it can be yours today, for 798K. (What a difference a year makes!!) Don’t miss this one!!

  171. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [21, 25] Gator,

    Merci. Tout de monde est bien.

    Sastry, BC. Actually, daughter, not granddaughter. Not that I am not old enough for one, but I did not pick up on that nuance (not a native french speaker and never really studied it) and probably should have left off petite or used bebe instead.

    Stu and Chifi: I am used to not sleeping. I used to be a BigLaw associate.

  172. 3b says:

    GDP falls over 6%, market rallies. 6 out of 19 banks fail stress tests, banks rally. wtf is going on

    An unsustainable rally in a Bear market, justified by nothing.

  173. Clotpoll says:

    John (94)-

    How quaint that you continue to believe it’s all about liquidity and rates.

    Continue to enjoy pushing on a string.

  174. Traitor nom deplume says:

    The (recently larger) Deplume family thanks the assembled regulars for their well wishes.

    The newest Deplume is just fine, sleeps a lot, eats well, doesn’t cry much, and is adored by her big sister. Daddy is getting lots of well wishes here, as well as a lot of folks asking why the heck I am at work.

  175. Secondary Market says:

    West Palm Beach more dangerous than Philly? I better hurry and buy my house…

  176. Secondary Market says:

    congrats nom! my first is due in two weeks and i have no idea what to expect.

  177. Outofstater says:

    #169 I’m asking the same question. For awhile I thought it was just the last few party-goers getting the last dregs of the punch bowl but now, who knows? I’m not going to play this game because I don’t understand it anymore.

  178. Shore Guy says:


    I do not yet play. I have wanted to for awhile and now have some time, as I recently scaled back on one of mu businesses. My kids want to learn and I figured I should pick up a little bit of knowledge first.

    The guy I know said the Takamines were decent workhorse guitars, which have the ability to plug into electronics for loops etc. They seemed reasonably priced, the more expensive of them going for something like $1,300. The one, less expensive I believe, was a solid cedar top and the other solid spruce. As a lover of old wooden boats, and well-made-furniture, I have a real prejudice against laminated wood. I believe that the Takamines are all solid-wood construction. The fingerboards are rosewood, and not ebony, as I recall, but I am not persuaded that it makes a difference, at least at this point.

    I have no knowledge of the Martin, Taylor or Gibson guitars; well, beyond a general osmotic recollection that Martin has been around forever and some of them cost as much as a house (well, maybe not a NJ house, bringing this back to RE).

    Any additional thoughts are welcome and will be appreciated by me.

  179. kettle1 says:

    180 secondary

    conrats to you as well. expect much less sleep. #1 rule is to relax, humans have been having babies for a very long time. you and the baby will work out your own system of doing things. What may have worked great for other parents you know may not work at all for you.

    Dont take life to seriously and enjoy father hood. Nothing like having a snuggly little newborn son/daughter snuggle into your chest and take a nap.

  180. 3b says:

    3178 Traitor: congrats. All the best!!

  181. Shore Guy says:

    “Daddy is getting lots of well wishes here, as well as a lot of folks asking why the heck I am at work.”

    For the sleep of course.


    Was she born at full term or maybe a little late? In my experience, the longer they “bake” the better they sleep, as they are able to take in a bigger meal and it lasts longer.

  182. Shore Guy says:


    You are in for having the most bizzare conversations while looking at a messed diaper trying to figure out whether it is okay that it looks like whole grain mustard, and all sorts of assorted things. You are also in line for a change in perception that you cannot full prepare for. One’s outlook changes in an instant. It is a great experience, and only keeps getting better — notwithstanding the teenage years.

  183. Clotpoll says:

    Sell in May and go away.

    Has a nice ring, doesn’t it?

    So much better than, say, pump-and dump?

  184. Secondary Market says:

    thanks for the tips kettle. i’ve been trying to preach relaxing to my wife but she’s been “nesting” and stressing about every detail so far. i’m sure things will fall into place and organically work out. i’m excited for this 10 month event to finally become real.

  185. waters says:

    I’m sure this has been discussed, but isn’t it strange that the condo market in the graph seems to be holding up better than any other segment? I would have expected it to perform the worst, given the glut of new condos, that they appeal to first time buyers, and that often people only stay in them for a few years.

  186. kettle1 says:

    shore, secondary

    You are also in line for a change in perception that you cannot full prepare for. One’s outlook changes in an instant. It is a great experience, and only keeps getting better

    I second, third and fourth this!!! For me its the was/is the sort of thing that someone can tell you about but you cant really grasp it until you get there.

  187. kettle1 says:


    your wife will always worry about everything. Its a mommy thing. If nothing else, be the relaxed one for her. my wife swears that seeing me relaxed helped her to (a little bit anyway).

  188. Safeashouses says:

    Congrats Nom!

  189. John says:

    Don’t fight the fed baby, they jammed the cds, munis, t-bills and corporates down quicker than a fat guy can down a hot dog at a Coney Island Hot Dog eating contest. I doubled down in March and now I get to eat what I killed. If you knew that the dow would be around 8,200 you would have been chanelling John Holmes on Viagra and been very long. Instead you are a whinner. No one likes a whinner.

    Clotpoll says:
    April 29, 2009 at 12:45 pm
    John (94)-

    How quaint that you continue to believe it’s all about liquidity and rates.

    Continue to enjoy pushing on a string.

  190. John says:

    I rather push on a string than pull on a string, last time I pulled on a string out pooped a bloody tampon.
    Clotpoll says:
    April 29, 2009 at 12:45 pm
    John (94)-

    How quaint that you continue to believe it’s all about liquidity and rates.

    Continue to enjoy pushing on a string.

  191. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [185] shore,

    She was fully baked, as was her sister.


    Sounds like No. 1. Not to worry. As for being ready, sounds like you and the wife are as ready as you can be.

    Hardest part for me was watching the missus endure contractions, knowing that there was nothing you can do about it.

    You will find yourself constantly checking his/her breathing when she is asleep. Know that you will do this and that all will be well.

    Keep things clean but don’t sweat the fact that there will be dirt, germs, pollen, etc. It is actually good for them. Ask for folks to wash hands but don’t freak out if they don’t.

    Take lots of pictures, take your time, and enjoy yourself; you won’t pass this way again (with this child anyway).

  192. Doyle says:


    Skep, the GM hit was felt a bit here, but much more so in Detroit.

  193. BC Bob says:


    Any extra tickets for Bruce, 5/23?

  194. confused in nj says:

    Sen. Arlen Specter’s Party Affiliation Switch, sort of undermines the voting process. It would O.K. to run on a different party line for election, but an incumbent switching like that, disenfranchising the people who voted for that Party Line. It should not be allowed.

  195. Doyle says:

    BC, nope, still waiting to see if they trickle down to me, via the wife’s gig.

  196. Secondary Market says:

    nom, i’ve been to 3 baby classes hosted by Penn Hospital (including breast feeding)so i’m certainly as prepared as i’ll ever be lol. but i’ll be honest, i know i’m not prepared for the outlook and perspective change. although it seems like it’ll be a religious type experience.

  197. John says:

    Did you try putting up a flier at the local senior citzens home?

    BC Bob says:
    April 29, 2009 at 1:28 pm

    Any extra tickets for Bruce, 5/23?

  198. Sastry says:


    There have been a few defections in recent time, though very infrequent. In Specter’s case, it seems all geared towards next election — he is a moderate, and has voted with democrats on some issues, so there is not a major change (especially wrt voter representation — I presume the voters knew his moderate views), per se.

    On the other hand, having a filibustering minority (on even simple issues) is a big danger. It is a game that GOP is playing rather poorly — may be they got drunk on power during W’s years.

    Personally, I think this voting along party lines frequently is a bit silly. A democrat from Louisiana is probably more conservative on many issues than a republican from California.


  199. John says:

    I love those classes, the milk tastes great too.

    Secondary Market says:
    April 29, 2009 at 1:37 pm
    nom, i’ve been to 3 baby classes hosted by Penn Hospital (including breast feeding)so i’m certainly as prepared as i’ll ever be lol. but i’ll be honest, i know i’m not prepared for the outlook and perspective change. although it seems like it’ll be a religious type experience.

  200. bi says:

    last night i was trying to figure out why sen. specter is switching party. here is some possible answers:

    1) he wants Big O attend his funeral if he dies in office;
    2) he feels lonely since he was only jewish republican senator;
    3) he thinks R stands for Research and D stands for Development. in this tough economic environment, maybe the jobs in developemnt is more secure.

    any other possiblities?

  201. All Hype says:

    Keep skying the market boys! Let’s show those trolls that this recession is really a non-event!

  202. BC Bob says:

    “Did you try putting up a flier at the local senior citzens home?”


    Nah, too much demand there. They’re solvent.

  203. Shore Guy says:

    “Any extra tickets for Bruce, 5/23?”

    I second that motion. We were supposed to be away so we did not get any. Could use 2 or 4, if anyone has a line on some tickets. Hartford was a pretty decent show, though not as good as Ft. Lauderdale or Giants Stadium last year. Better than Boston, anyway (although “I want to be Sedated” was a lot of fun).

  204. chicagofinance says:

    Anyone know about allergies? I am freakin’ dying and I usually have no issue. It started Sunday night/Monday……is it basically getting 80/90 degree days in April?

    Will drinking a lot of scotch clear it up?

  205. Sastry says:


    He wants to get re-elected. The GOP announced that they will eat him alive in the primaries, so, simple survival instinct.


  206. Shore Guy says:


    Because the party has all but abandoned its focus on fiscal responsibility and individual rights and is, instead, over focused on religious tests administered by Southern Baptists, perhaps?

    I suppose Arlan could have paraphrased Reagan who once said, of his decision to become a R, “I didn’t leave the Democratic Party, the party left me.”

    With Snow and Colloins as the only moderate Rs left in the Senate, the cabal who currently hold the parties reignes will pull even further to the social right at a time the nation is growing less tolerant of intolerance — this will bite us in the @$$.

  207. BC Bob says:


    You can develop at aany time. I have bad seasonal allergies, pollen in the spring, ragweed in the fall. This year, it kicked in on Sunday. BOOYAA.

  208. Shore Guy says:


    The upside is that if it does not, you will not care — at least not after awhile.

  209. Shore Guy says:

    “it seems like it’ll be a religious type experience.”

    Yup. Like St. Paul onthe road to Damascus — POW!

  210. Shore Guy says:

    “It is a game that GOP is playing rather poorly — may be they got drunk on power during W’s years.”

    Finally, something we agree on. Actually, I don’t think it is a matter of being drunk on power as much as it is the arrogance of those whose world view is so narrow and so governed by certain narrow “values” to the exception of all else that they fail to see how they could be anything other than right.

  211. Clotpoll says:

    chi (207)-

    Drinking lots of Scotch is a cure for a whole host of problems.

  212. BC Bob says:


    Scotch and shut the windows. AC only.

  213. Shore Guy says:


    Ever had Johnny Walker Blue?

  214. still_looking says:

    Tree pollen usually among other allergens.

    Zyrtec, Allegra, Allegra D, Clarinex and other allergy meds – which won’t really start in full effect for a few days. Use Afrin for a few days (no more than 3) til the other meds kick in. Nasonex also can help with sinus congestion.


    ps: I don’t know any “homotoxicology” like Ms. I just know ER medicine. So, for what it’s worth…

  215. Clotpoll says:

    Ken Lewis makes it thru the shareholders’ meeting.

    Nice to stay with the same conductor who has your train pointed right at a 10-ft thick concrete wall.

  216. Shore Guy says:

    NasalCrom works pretty well too, if one is going for a non-grain-based solution.

  217. still_looking says:

    216 Shore.

    Have it.
    Love it.
    Won’t even share it.


  218. Clotpoll says:

    shore (216)-

    Yeah. Not bad, but blends aren’t my thing.

  219. Clotpoll says:

    sl (217)-

    I’d recommend about four lines of cocaine.

  220. Shore Guy says:

    loratdaine to the rescue

  221. still_looking says:

    Clot 222,

    Yeah but the brain bleeds and nasal septum erosion could turn you into Frank, after a week of it… you’d be bi.


  222. Shore Guy says:

    I picked up a bottle just to have around for guests. It wasn’t bad. Almost didn’t care about the price.

  223. Clotpoll says:

    sl (224)-

    That’s an insult to cocaine.

  224. still_looking says:

    Clot 226

    They are an insult to humanity. Vertebrates even.


  225. Clotpoll says:


    By the way, what’s wrong with brain bleeds? I think mine’s been bleeding for about 12 years.

  226. still_looking says:

    Need help:

    Does Edmunds list the real “invoice” price of the car or is it some “roundabout” figure?


  227. still_looking says:

    Oh… and CONGRATS! to Nom, Mrs. Nom, and L’il Nom on the newest arrival.


  228. Secondary Market says:

    @222 lmao!

  229. chicagofinance says:

    Shore Guy says:
    April 29, 2009 at 2:07 pm
    Clot, Ever had Johnny Walker Blue?

    shore: extremely smooth and a nice offer to a non-scotch drinker; makes more of a statement; I only buy when I can get it under $100 or giving it as a gift;

    If you ever go to a JW event, they will disclose all the components of the mix. Interesting to hear what goes into each one. It tends to vary from time to time.

  230. Stu says:

    Loratadine has worked for me for years. I only take them during the high allergy season and they work like a charm. You can get ’em for about a nickel each if you buy generic and wait for the sales. Unfortunately, they tend not to be on sale during the high allergy seasons. Additionally, the advice on the AC with the vents closed is a good one. It really works.

  231. #218 – Ken Lewis makes it thru the shareholders’ meeting.

    Somewhat surprised. Now he just has to survive the inevitable lawsuits.

  232. kettle1 says:


    The pure stuff isnt nearly as nasty! ;)

  233. skep-tic says:


    ” isn’t it strange that the condo market in the graph seems to be holding up better than any other segment? I would have expected it to perform the worst, given the glut of new condos, that they appeal to first time buyers, and that often people only stay in them for a few years.”


    agree that this is strange. I can think of a few possible explanations, but none of them are very satisfying.

    (1) higher percentage of condos are new construction and new is undercutting existing housing stock

    (2) first time buyers going more into condos because they cannot get the kind of financing they once got to buy SFHs

    (3) empty nesters/ move down buyers going into condos

    (4) vulture investors buying condos in bulk and establishing a floor

  234. SG says:

    Housing: Coming In For A Landing?

    For the first time in 16 months, home prices are falling at a slower pace.

    WASHINGTON, D.C. – After deteriorating relentlessly for nearly three years, the much-watched S&P/Case-Shiller Index showed a brief glimmer that plummeting home prices are at least slowing their fall.

    Prices are still plunging: Home prices in 20 major cities across the country have fallen 18.6% between February of this year and last, according to the index released Tuesday. That painful drop, however, is an improvement from January, when prices fell an unprecedented 19%.

  235. Secondary Market says:

    i was boston about a month ago and went to a cocktail bar called DRINK. it’s been getting a lot of press lately so i’d figure to check it out.
    the concept is that the bar keep will ask your mood and concoct a drink to match – using only artisan ingredients. i ignorantly ordered a maker’s mark, rocks and the bartender said try again. i asked him to match something similar and came back to me with an “old fashion, old fashion”. it was like watching a scientist create a formula and the result was one of the best rye drinks i’ve had in my life.
    348 Congress St. just over the canal if anyone is headed that way.

  236. Shore Guy says:


    Floks, from the cockpit, this is your captain. All our engines are still out and we are going down, the good news is we managed to level out a bit and will only crash at a 20-degree angle, instead of the 45 degrees we forcasted earlier. Oh, and once again, thank you for flying Fedco, where we always promise you a landing.

  237. Secondary Market says:

    238 in mod

  238. Shore Guy says:

    Also in mod

  239. Shore Guy says:


    Floks, from the c0ckpit, this is your captain. All our engines are still out and we are going down, the good news is we managed to level out a bit and will only crash at a 20-degree angle, instead of the 45 degrees we forcasted earlier. Oh, and once again, thank you for flying Fedco, where we always promise you a landing.

  240. Shore Guy says:

    I found the imbeded offending word

  241. grim says:

    Nice sell off on the 10y

  242. morpheus says:

    congrats. I used to believe that most beautiful words in the english language were “I Love You”. Now I know it is “Daddy”.

  243. Escape From NJ says:


    If your price range is $1,000 – $1,300 I would stick with the Takamine. Also check out Breedlove and Guild in that price range. After you play for awhile you will start to notice that certain fret boards feel different depending on the wood used. I like rosewood. But on some electric models I like maple. Just make sure you can get the most wood for your money on an acoustic. The top is a must. This is where the sound and tone is generated. Back and sides all wood if you can fit in your price range. Test out a couple different guitars. A cedar top sounds different from a mohogany top. If your in the Monmouth County area I would suggest Musicians Workshop in Manalapan. They have a good selection and will give price reductions on some models. I buy most of my gear there or on-line.

  244. A.West says:

    Case-Schiller Indexes say that NYMetro area home prices are 78% above January 2000 levels. That leaves the NYmetro area the farthest above 2000 levels of any of the 20 big metro areas Case-Shiller tracks.

    This seems a bit crazy. But I should not be surprised at how slowly economic adjustments take.

    When I bought my house in late 2000, I paid $350k, and it seemed expensive. A couple of schoolteachers down the road paid over $650k for a similar house a couple years back.

    This whole “it’s falling at a slower pace, which is an improvement” rally seems a bit overdone. Especially if things do continue to track negative for longer than people expected.

    I have heard that NJ upper end mortgages are more tilted towards the “Alt-A” class, that are supposed to start resetting in 09/10. Anyone think that between job losses and resets that upper-end NJ real estate starts falling faster in the next couple of years?

  245. Shore Guy says:


  246. lisoosh says:

    Migratory workers –

    I’m going to back “we” on this. I’m seeing in other forums a serious uptick in people from places like Florida saying essentially that it absolutely sucks by them and they heard that the NY area isn’t hit nearly as hard.

    What does this mean?

    Means lots of people with next to nothing moving to the area on spec hoping to find a job. Also means a bunch of people unable to afford the basics. Expect an increase in the homeless, 10 people bunking down in an apartment, etc. Except this time it won’t be illegals.

    Congrats to all new parents, return parents and almost parents on the board.

    Now off to take care of my own kids….

  247. skep-tic says:

    as a point of reference, the condo market in Boston is getting hammered right now (from the Boston Globe):


    The median selling price of luxury condos plunged 19 percent to $560,000, while sales skidded nearly 42 percent in the first quarter of this year when compared with the same period in 2008, according to data released today by the Listing Information Network, or LINK, a company that tracks the downtown Boston condo market. Sales in the city’s overall condo market fell about 33 percent, and the median sales price, or midpoint price, dropped almost 14 percent to $410,000.

    “This has been one of the most dramatic declines that we’ve seen within one quarter,” said LINK president Debra Taylor Blair. “A lot of those buyers tend to be hedge fund managers, people directly tied to Wall Street. People maybe who were expecting a bonus that didn’t happen.”

  248. SG says:

    Green shoots will not mean healthy roots

    But this is sloppy thinking for two reasons. The first is that it assumes there are no more crises lurking out there. But it doesn’t take a genius to work out that the losses made by the banks have not gone away; the debts have simply been shifted from the private sector to the public sector. A potential meltdown in the global financial system last October was averted, but only at the risk of ­creating a sovereign debt crisis.

    It would only take two or three of the emerging economies of eastern Europe or Latin America to default on their debts to see doubts surface about the viability of the bigger developed economies, including Britain. The idea that the next big shock will come in the emerging markets is plausible, because these countries have been heavily dependent on foreign capital, and those flows have reversed as banks have repatriated what’s left of their capital.

  249. a href=””>CalculatedRisk has some more details on the FOMC $1.75T purchase plans.

  250. SG says:

    The Mighty Debt-Purge of 2009

    The danger is that a turnround, however shallow, will convince the world things are soon going to be the way they were before. They will not be. It will merely show that collapse does not last for ever once substantial stimulus is applied. The brutal truth is that the financial system is still far from healthy, the deleveraging of the private sectors of highly indebted countries has not begun, the needed rebalancing of global demand has barely even started and, for all these reasons, a return to sustained, private-sector-led growth probably remains a long way in the future.” (Martin Wolf, Why the ‘green shoots’ of recovery could yet wither, Financial Times)

    Debt is at the very center of the current financial crisis. The massive debt-overhang can only be resolved by writing down losses, restructuring capital, and initiating debt-relief programs. The Fed and Treasury’s task is to soften the effects of a hard landing not to stop the process altogether. That would be pointless. Recessions are a necessary purgative that cleanse the system of waste and excess. Wall Street’s unprecedented credit expansion–which ballooned to gigantic proportions from fetid assets, off-balance sheet operations and mega-leveraging–ensures that this recession will be more agonizing than any before. But that just makes it all the more important. The system has to exhale before the patient can be revived.

  251. d2b says:

    We had a guy from Detroit take a job with our company based in NY over a year ago. He was driving back every weekend to see his family because they could not sell their house. We were so short staffed (from layoffs) that he had to work Christmas eve and then drive home.

    Unfortunately he (and I) was laid off in the beginning of this month. That’s another reason why this market run up is so frustrating. O is saving the banks, hoping that they will lend again.

    The 19 banks that had to undergo stress tests are not too big to fail.

  252. bi says:

    what’s happening to this market? up 3% today. why people are buying when we are heading to the gret depression II?

    where is bagholder frank? i need your insight.

  253. 3b says:

    The Fed says they see signs that the recession is easier (the same Fed that saw no housing bubble, and the same Fed that said we would avoid a recession).

    I better go out and buy a house now.

  254. we says:

    Expect more migrant workers.
    I see Companies laying off and then hiring consultants on the cheap. Eventually , they will pick up similar employees at 60 -70 % of the prior compensation. After all, a backoffice employee from C, UBS, JPMC etc are all the same.
    This generates a lot of activity around here, enough for anyone to get attracted to this area until dead states like MI, OH, NV RI or FL see any activity. These migrant workers will shack up with family or get an apartment.

  255. we says:

    If you lived in a dead area, you get so jaded, you never ever want to go back again. You will put up with high cost and high taxes, but not boarded up towns and factories.

  256. bi says:

    260#, seriously you should.

    to me every assets are in bottoming process with 3T more dollars will be in the market next few years. for housing, you will face either higher price or higher interest rate or both 24 months from now.

    >I better go out and buy a house now.

  257. SG says:

    Mortgage Applications Drop to Mid-March Low

    U.S. home loan applications fell last week to the lowest level since mid-March, driven by a big drop in refinancing demand even as mortgage rates clung to record lows, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday.

    Refinance applications fell 21.9 percent in the week ended April 24, overwhelming the 0.6 percent dip in home purchase loan requests to drag the trade group’s total loan index down 18.1 percent.

    The refinance index at a seasonally adjusted 5,108.2 last week was down from 6,813.5 in early April. Still, it remained well above 2,722.7 in early February, when the average 30-year mortgage rate was more than 1/2 percentage point higher.

    Refinancings represented about 75 percent of all mortgage applications last week, down from a nearly 80 percent share the prior week.

    The purchase index declined to a two-month low of 251.6, the trade group said.

  258. 3b says:

    #262 we: If I am understanding you correctly,why would any financial firm that may be hiring back office people need to hire a migrant from Ohio lets say, when there are lots of laid of back office/middle office and front office people right in the NYC metro area, who will work for the same % amount off of their last (never to be had again) salary.

    With all due respect, I just do not understand your thought process.

  259. Victorian says:

    Bi (264) –

    I sincerely hope that your friends and family are not listening and acting on your advice.

  260. John says:

    FORD MTR CO DEL GLBL SEC 7.450% 07/16/2031 ISIN #US345370CA64 SEDOL #2445643
    CUSIP 345370CA6
    Just hit 52, I bought in at 19 back in Feb when BC Bob was in his Bomb Shelter.

  261. we says:

    3B, These days financial firms will not pay relocation to anyone. Since activity is happening around here, migrant workers will come here in search of work, not after getting an offer.

    If a Banker gets laid off from BoA in NC, she might temporarily move to NY hoping to find employment as a Banker.

    That is the history of mankind.

  262. John says:

    I love a bull market. Now here is the rub, those who got out early did great, those who stayed in made up some of their losses, now those who waited till early March and sold in a panic were spanked like a rented mule. I would hate to be that panic seller who will be driving his beater car and just hanging on in 2010-2012 recovery, maybe his neighbor will give him a spin in the & series and that will cheer him up.

  263. Sastry says:


    What would be the impact of attacking second liens on house prices in the short term (I presume they will go up)? Also, could the interest rates could go up (more risk for lenders)? What are the chances of this bill passing? I am personally against it (not very sure though, since I think I may be against it just for short-term selfish reasons — lower prices and lower rates, which will benefit me personally).


  264. jcer says:

    we, I think you are off base there. The migrants won’t be coming here, the jobs will go there. Lets look at from the banks perspective, yes business is slower but there still is a need for the industry and the back office is necessary. I would surmise that banks have hit the wall with layoffs and really cannot survive with fewer people especially in light of increasing regulation and government involvement. The jobs will move to low cost areas of the US, cheaper office space, american/english speaking workers willing to work for 35k per year, etc that will never be NYC in NC that could pass as a living wage in NY not so much. Right now I think returns are greater on moving jobs to NC or Texas than even outsourcing to India. The NC banker is unlikely to move to NYC it is too difficult without corporate help, they most likely will move industries and try to remain in a low cost area.

  265. we says:

    jcer, any Senior Management that recommends relocation of an entire office to another state will be shown the door faster than <>.

    A multi-million dollar project like that with dubious ROI is a great career-killer.

  266. we says:

    replace with ‘john add colorful speech here’. That is what I wrote in the above post.

  267. BC Bob says:

    “now those who waited till early March and sold in a panic were spanked like a rented mule.”


    HMM? What about those that plowed in toward the 2nd/3rd quarter of 2007 and held? Dead mule?

  268. 3b says:

    #269 we: I think you are totally off base, but of course entitled to your opininon.

  269. BC Bob says:

    “what’s happening to this market? up 3% today. why people are buying when we are heading to the gret depression II?”

    Who am I? Irving Fisher?

  270. 3b says:

    #264 bi: you will face either higher price or higher interest rate or both 24 months from now.

    You do not really believe that do you? Actually you do,and that is the scary part.

  271. Pat says:

    Nom had a granddaughter? Cool.

    ~ ~ ~

    Sugar and spice,
    Sometimes headlice

    Tattoos.. a tongue ring,
    Whatever, bling bling

    Barbies, then Blazers,
    Bazillion fundraisers

    Girl drama,
    Hate Mama

    Only want Daddy.


    Congrats on your daughter!

  272. we says:

    Others admitted they’d come because, believe it or not, they hope the job prospects will be better in New York than they were back home. (If you think it’s bad here, try Florida.) In fact, if anything, the severity of the recession served not to anchor these people to the spot, but rather shake them loose—stripping away the last excuses that might have stalled them from moving in the past. (When you get laid off from your job, or get dumped by your boyfriend, New York is the best revenge.) And nearly all of our arrivals share the same irrational, blind bravado that spurs someone to relocate to the most expensive city in the country in the middle of the worst recession in a century.

  273. John says:

    April 29 (Bloomberg) — Lewis Ranieri, a mortgage-bond pioneer and former Salomon Brothers vice chairman, said the slump in U.S. home prices is almost over.

    “I’m actually very enthusiastic about housing, and I haven’t said that in five years,” said Ranieri, who spoke on a panel at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California. “We’re within shouting distance of a bottom.”

    I loved this guy in Liar’s poker, and milken in preditors ball. rock stars.

  274. John says:

    Delayed Gratification sometimes is even better.

    BC Bob says:
    April 29, 2009 at 3:51 pm
    “now those who waited till early March and sold in a panic were spanked like a rented mule.”


    HMM? What about those that plowed in toward the 2nd/3rd quarter of 2007 and held? Dead mule?

  275. kettle1 says:

    Re migrant workers

    I agree with WE, to a point. I regard to jcers’s comment, i do not think the jobs will go to “them”, i think they will simply evaporate and those that dont may very well leave the country.

    I do not know what scale of migration we will see, and i dont have any data to back this up, just my guess on the matter

  276. Victorian says:

    “Rock Stars”

    John –

    You left this gem out from the article.

    “He founded Houston-based Franklin Bank Corp., which filed for bankruptcy in November. While Franklin avoided the subprime mortgage market, his firm was burned by loans to builders in California, Arizona, Florida and Michigan, where foreclosures are among the highest in the U.S. ”

    I do not know of any other profession which gives jobs and millions to people who have proven themselves to be failures over and over.

  277. BC Bob says:

    “Delayed Gratification sometimes is even better.”


    Some say that getting close to even is just as good as making $.

  278. BC Bob says:


    How about one who is extremely bearish lt, yet long st?

  279. Nicholas says:


    Did you just seriously use this as a reference as to why people are moving to NY enmass during a recession? I don’t even know where to begin to tear apart this reference.

    How ’bout this? A recent survey found that nearly half of young people still want to move to NY, despite a recession.

    Hmm..what survey would that be…maybe the one you didn’t cite because it doesn’t exist. Possibly it does exist but it was a survey done on the nymag site and people who visit that site are probably NY bound already.

    That article is rife with conjecture, self-interest, and blatant self-promotion (nymag hearts NY, go figure).

    I wouldn’t use this article for a source of toilet paper.

  280. Outofstater says:

    Flu pandemic “imminent.” WHO raises Alert Level to 5 out of 6. This could get interesting, especially if it goes quiescent during the summer and comes roaring back next fall.

  281. Outofstater says:

    Wonder if it was a coincidence that the WHO press conference in Geneva was scheduled for just after 4 pm NY time.

  282. 3b says:

    WHO just rasied their swine flu rating to 5, which indicates a stronglprobably that it becomes a pandemic.

  283. we says:

    No one can predict the velocity or magnitude of migrant workers. But I know that my handyman has not called back after 3 days, this unmet need will be filled by some opportunist migrant.

    As for NYMAG or any published article, you can pick and choose what you ignore, at the expense of your financial well-being.

  284. Sastry says:

    Senator Dick Durbin: Banks “Frankly Own The Place”…

    Is this some sort of posturing? I haven’t read much on the mortgage reform, so do not much of an opinion (I doubt it [not passing cramdowns] is probably a lesser concession to the banks than the bailouts). Any expert opinions?

  285. Sastry says:

    3b… Heard this somewhere…

    In US, there are an average of 30k+ deaths/year due to general flu — so, one death so far is statistically insignificant.

    A layman’s interpretation of this is probably not wise…


  286. John says:


    The HAWAIIAN TROPIC ZONE™ in TIMES SQUARE is hiring for all positions!!!

    Host – Server – Bartender – Table Concierge


    3PM – 7PM EACH DAY

    What to Wear:
    Bring a bikini and high heels
    *Changing rooms will be provided*

    *Must bring head shot or comp card and valid photo ID

    Auditions will be held at:

  287. BC Bob says:

    “No one can predict the velocity or magnitude of migrant workers”


    Well, RU has a different point of view;

    “The Rutgers Economic Advisory Service forecast that was released in January 2008 cautioned that New Jersey’s economy will perform worse than the rest of the nation through at least 2017. The report blamed the bleak outlook on the state’s high cost of living and high cost of doing business in New Jersey.”

    “New Jersey has the worst tax state business tax climate in the nation. According to The Tax Foundation’s 2009 State Business Tax Climate Index, New Jersey also has the highest property taxes, the second highest personal income tax, sixth highest corporate income tax, and the ninth highest sales tax in the country.”

    “In November, a forecast by Hughes and Seneca in the Sitar-Rutgers Regional Report warned New Jersey could end the decade with fewer private sector jobs than when the 2000s began, a situation it has not experienced since the Great Depression.”

    “New Jersey lost more than 98,000 manufacturing jobs between 2000 and 2006, twice as many as it lost in the prior 10 years, and the loss continues in a sector the state once dominated.
    In 1990, New Jersey accounted for a 20 percent share of all pharmaceutical jobs in the nation. Today our share is less than 13 percent.”

  288. BC Bob says:

    “The HAWAIIAN TROPIC ZONE™ in TIMES SQUARE is hiring for all positions!!!”


    All positions? Can you offer more detail?

  289. we says:

    As linked earlier:

    The study found that there is a modest population gain in New Jersey residents with a college degree, particularly those with PhDs, while the majority of people leaving the state are at the lower end of the income and education spectrum. In general, the study found New Jersey’s state income tax policy does not cause people to leave.

  290. jcer says:

    We, management lives to create massive projects with dubious returns.

    At least from where I sit, in any event banks are looking to move employees out of the area due to business continuity planning. Right now funds are short but as an eventual cost cutting plan when rehiring occurs I do no think it is here for commodity labor(overseas isn’t a terribly good option for many things too much fear of losing control of client data). Additionally you are simplifying the scenario staff reductions around NYC will mean the shifting of tasks to offices elsewhere where labor is obtained more cheaply(either overseas or domestically).

    Right now the next thing will be turnover and a talent grab. I am not saying NYC is doomed, etc. My point is that job creation and availability is not great in NYC now, but maybe it is better than other places but the high cost of entry locks out anyone who doesn’t already live here or want to live here barring all costs. If it needs to be here or requires specialized skills it will remain here otherwise I don’t see the job being created here or remaining here the business climate is simply too poor.

  291. 3b says:

    #294 sastry: not interperting, just stating a fact.

  292. grim says:

    OH NO! Pepsi Wheel delayed!

    Pepsi Globe delayed

    The 286-foot Pepsi Globe — a gigantic Ferris wheel planned as an iconic part of the Meadowlands Xanadu project — won’t become part of the North Jersey skyline for at least another year, New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority officials said today.

    Board members at their monthly meeting were told that erection of the observation wheel has been “placed on hold at this time.”

  293. grim says:

    Patiently waiting for John’s comments on the erection being delayed.

  294. grim says:

    Toys R Us selling toilet paper and cleaning products?

    Calling this move “convenience”? Sounds more like desperation.

    Oh bother.

  295. dentss says:

    Clotpoll #12 toy would be wise to take your own advice buy CAT ..Chinese excavator sales back to pre-crisis levels

    * Predicts 2nd round of U.S. infrastructure spending ….

  296. lisoosh says:

    Re. Migrant workers (shoot me, it is an interesting topic).

    The naysayers seem to be focusing on banking, middle class and higher paying occupations (business owners, pharm, etc,)

    I would conjecture that those people would be less likely in the near future to make the leap to come here on spec. Generally they would be expected to own homes, maybe underwater and definitely be less mobile so they would be expected to hold out from moving or consider themselves unable to.


    This is the wrong demographic to be looking at. Plenty of people live in areas where supermarket work or security are considered good jobs. There are places in this country where 400 people apply for 1 custodial job. To an area where unemployment stands at 20%, 7% would sound peachy. To someone unemployed for 2 years, stocking shelves at Target for $9 an hour and a genuine reason to get up in the morning would be pretty sweet. Those kinds of jobs won’t hire people from out of an area, so those people would be more likely to just load up the car with their possesions and make their way here.

    Of course, it is purely conjecture, but my guess would be that most likely early migrants would be lower income, obviously not currently homeowners and younger people – recent college grads who can’t find work for instance. People with nothing to lose.

    The effect would probably be an increase in unemployment, increased demand for basic services and and pretty aggressive downward wage pressure.
    Why hire a Tri-State resident with high expectations when you can get a Mid-Westerner much cheaper who is incredibly grateful for the job?

  297. SG says:

    Economy falls more than expected

    The nation’s gross domestic product fell 6.1% in the first quarter — nearly the same pace as the end of 2008, and a much sharper drop than expected.

    The drop was much worse than expected. According to economists surveyed by, expectations were for a drop of 4.7% in gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation’s economic activity.

    The first quarter decline was the second biggest drop recorded in 26 years, behind only the fourth quarter reading. GDP fell 6.3% in the last three months of last year.

    Still, investors didn’t appear to be too upset by the news. Major U.S. stock indexes were all up more than 1% in the first half hour of trading Wednesday.

  298. SG says:

    No Surprises from the Fed

    The takeaway for investors is that the Fed is going to do whatever is necessary to avoid a depression. We are in uncharted waters, as there has never been this level of stimulus thrown at the economy, particularly this early into a severe recession. To the extent the policy enables the economy to recover, investors will benefit.

    However, now is not the time to take on excessive risk. Be selective about what you buy and use strategies such as dollar-cost averaging.

    What we don’t know is how the Fed will eventually unwind its strategy of strong stimulus. The central bank kept its plan of buying up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities, up to $200 billion of agency debt and up to $300 billion of Treasury securities. We also don’t know the exit strategy for TARP or the various other Treasury plans.

    But for now, deflation and a worsening recession remain the primary risk. And while shares of Marriott (MAR) and Fifth Third Bank (FITB) are trading up today, the ongoing economic and credit issues could easily drag them right back down tomorrow.

  299. SG says:

    Interesting perspective,

    Greatly Depressing: Stimulating something other than big government

    The reality, though, is that none of these leaders differ all that much in their ideological approach to recession. Now the question is this: Does the big government approach work? Absolutely not. Prior to the Great Depression, no American recession had lasted longer than four years. Most were over in two. The Great Depression dragged on for nearly twelve years, however, with unemployment reaching as high as 25 percent at one point. And just as it is doing now, government over-taxed and over-regulated the economy the whole way through, starving it of desperately needed capital while consolidating frightening levels of power in Washington.

    But that’s not the story told by government textbooks—just as it’s not the story that’s being told today by the America’s mainstream media. Politicians are relying on big government’s myth to make—and promote—some of the most monumentally foolhardy economic decisions in our nation’s history.

  300. SG says:

    Workers Walk the Plank

    “With the erosion of social and corporate safety nets, tightening credit and declining home equity, most Americans have little financial cushioning to survive a job loss. Without a steady paycheck, 50 percent of Americans say they could not meet their financial obligations for more than a month — and, of that, a disturbing 28 percent couldn’t support themselves for more than two weeks of unemployment.”

    That’s the case in an environment in which more than three million Americans already have been out of work for more than six months.

    The employment issue is not being addressed with the level of urgency that is warranted. For all the talk of green jobs, there is no large-scale creative effort to turn this employment debacle around. There is no crash program on anything like the scale needed, for example, to rebuild the rotting infrastructure — a big-time potential source of jobs.

    The financial industry is seen as essential, but millions of American workers are not. They’re expendable.

    If as much attention, energy and resources were given to the effort to put Americans back to work as has been given to putting the banking industry back on its feet, you’d have fewer Champagne toasts on Wall Street but a lot more high-fiving in family homes across the country.

  301. BC Bob says:

    “What we don’t know is how the Fed will eventually unwind its strategy of strong stimulus.”

    SG [308],

    It’s time to unwind, the fed wants to drain liquidity. Who wants to buy the fed’s balance sheet? They have levered up with a bunch of crap that nobody wants. Good Luck.

  302. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Estimates of economic costs of a flu pandemic
    If the outbreak of swine flu in Mexico becomes a pandemic, the economic consequences could be great. Below are estimates of the costs of such a disaster:

  303. yikes says:

    Alexnyc88 says:
    April 28, 2009 at 3:51 pm

    Whats the point for people age 30-40 to even have 401k? We already know we wont get jack **** from our SS money, and even if we do, it will be worth 1/100th of its today’s value. This happened when the USSR collapsed in 1992 with majority of savings evaporating into thin air and communist party bosses privatizing all useful resources and infrastructure.
    So what guarantees that even if you do get 2 million from your 401k plan in 35 years, those 2 million will be closer to $2k in purchasing power.

    So Alex – what do you think we should do? no offense, bud, but your logic here is a bit of a head-scratcher

  304. kettle1 says:



    if you agree with Alexnyc88’s outlook, then you would probably want to move into the standard doomsday package, precious metals, nonperishable foods, guns, ammo, alcohol, etc. Unless of course there is a strong foreign currency that is backed by a government that has demonstrated its resolve to maintain the integrity of its current and not deflate it. Are there any of those around?

  305. Barbara says:

    wow, just wow. I have credit in the 820s, been trying to refi for over a month. Either I get no follow up or some ass clown sends me over a joke of a good faith estimate. Latest today, 14k over my current mortgage in fees and escrow. I’m done.

  306. BC Bob says:

    “Are there any of those around?”


    1929, the US dollar. We were the world’s largest creditor nation with built up reserves. But don’t worry, the fed is at the helm.

  307. yikes says:

    reinvestor101 says:
    April 29, 2009 at 8:02 am
    Further, if Mac doesn’t tell that loud mouthed daughter of his to shut the hell up, he can go as well. She has gotten on my last damn nerves and is making me come to the belief that Mac is unpure.

    fool. meghan mccain is one of the few good things the republican party has going on right now (the others: fiscal ideas; increased shut-the-border efforts). you should listen to her – she’s much brighter than you are.

    easy on the eyes, too.

  308. 3b says:

    #317 Barbara:14k over my current mortgage in fees and escrow. I’m done.

    14k in fees for a refi!!!!

  309. xmonger says:

    re 316/318: History has shown that the base of power shifts to creditor nations. We took the helm from the UK a while back, off to Asia it now goes.

  310. BC Bob says:



  311. CAIBC says:

    so what does history show of what we are to become? like UK? no thanks here…
    lets start the migration to Asia! oh wait there are enough people there already….well, there are going to need someone to clean their mcmansions, take care of their kids and tend to their lawns while they are out working and creating the next bubble – now that bubble is going to be a BUBBLE!!!

  312. Stu says:

    Bingo is right (BC and x). GDP is still in the toilet and we have replaced the ability of American’s to spend what they don’t have with the federal government spending of money in which the country doesn’t have. Brilliant plan.

    The only real question is, how long will it be before we strike the iceberg and will John have cashed in his bonds by then.

  313. still_looking says:

    grim 303, Patiently waiting for John’s comments on the erection being delayed.

    No onions involved….not his speed.

    The rest of us are still feeling all funny in our pants over your chest hair (as noted by chifi you’ll recall.)


  314. Sybarite says:

    Anyone here have experience dealing with the USP, re: test method development?

  315. kettle1 says:


    a little, e-mail me.

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