From the Record:
Real estate market still pricey
Despite a recent drop in home prices, the New York metropolitan area remains one of the least affordable housing markets in the nation, according to a study released today.
The study by the Washington-based Center for Housing Policy said that in 2008, the New York area is the second most expensive housing market in the nation, after San Francisco. According to the study, the median home price in the New York area was $455,000 in the fourth quarter of 2008, down about 13 percent from $525,000 in the third quarter of 2007, the previous time the group looked at home prices.
The New York area moved up from the seventh most expensive area in 2007, as other high-priced markets, especially in California, experienced price declines of more than 30 percent.
The region’s home prices have not declined nearly as much as in the nation’s as a whole since the housing market began imploding several years ago. Prices in the area remain about 78 percent higher than they were in 2000, compared with an average of about 43 percent higher for the nation, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home index.
Tom Johnson of Liberty 100 Realty in Waldwick said that the area’s high-paying jobs have traditionally been able to support higher property values — though it’s not clear how that will be affected by recent job losses in the financial sector, he said.
“The whole Wall Street thing is still shaking out,” he said.
Mark DeLuca of Mark DeLuca Real Estate in Teaneck and Secaucus said the recent drop in prices has brought a lot of shoppers in to the market. But he said, “We’re not getting as many people to actually make a commitment.”
DeLuca predicted that prices may fall another 3 percent to 5 percent in the next six months — but in the meantime, he said, careful shoppers can find homes priced under the market averages.
At least one analyst, Jeffrey Otteau of Otteau Valuation in East Brunswick, says New Jersey home prices will continue falling in 2009, partly as a result of job losses.
Frist
From the Star Ledger:
Automaker woes imperil 6,600 N.J. jobs
The restructuring of the ailing U.S. auto industry could cost New Jersey upwards of 6,600 jobs this year, according to the state’s retail auto trade group.
New Jersey could lose as many as 200 GM and Chrysler dealers alone, or more than one-third of its retail stores, said James Appleton, president of the New Jersey Coalition of Automotive Retailers.
New Jersey has 590 franchised new car and truck retailers.
Chrysler filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection last week, and GM could do the same by the end of the month.
“Since January of 2007, New Jersey has lost 10 percent of its dealerships, 8,000 dealership jobs and hundreds of millions of dollars in tax revenue,” Appleton said. “Closing dealerships does nothing to improve an automakers’ chance of economic survival, but it will hurt consumers who benefit most from the convenience and competition offered by many dealerships.”
From Forbes:
Newark Star-Ledger announces salary, benefit cuts
New Jersey’s largest newspaper says it will reduce employee salaries and no longer cover the entire cost of employee health insurance.
…
The salary reductions will be done on a sliding scale, starting July 1. The first $40,000 of an employee’s salary will be reduced 5 percent, the next $40,000 by 10 percent.
Employees also will have to pay 25 percent of their health care plan costs.
What next, a study to confirm people in Jersey are rude?
I will still go to NJ for the pizza.
[271] tosh prior thread
“what’s Service Merchandise?”
It was a store, based on a weird floor ordering model, back in the 70’s and 80’s. I thought it died a quiet death long ago.
I’d like to see a study on what proportion of educational costs are born by SFH owners vs all other groups.
My take away from the last thread was that the gov’t encourages home ownership b/c it results in more social stability (talk about a backfire!). I think a big part of that “stability” is to cover the cost of public education. I’d imagine businesses just pass the tax on to customers, and I don’t think renters (at least right now) are covering nearly as much on a “per dwelling” basis.
Of course, not all states handle their school taxes the same.. but it’d be interesting.
#6 – Nom – I know, that was a poor attempt at humor…
… There was also Consumers Distributing, which was the same idea only with more fail.
This evening’s funnies:
http://ithoughtobamawouldgetmelaid.com/
Keep clicking on the “I thought” to see how O disappointed other people.
and one more…
“He’s as Irish as bacon, and cabbage and stew…”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Xkw8ip43Vk
Largest U.S. Banks Need Additional $75B in Equity, According to Stress Tests
The nation’s largest banks collectively need another $75 billion in equity to ride out potential losses due to the recession, according to long awaited government stress tests released this afternoon.
Nine of the 19 banks do not need any new capital at all, including J.P Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs. Another eight banks can fulfill their capital needs by raising money privately or, if they can’t, by converting existing government investments into common stock. That list includes Bank of America, which needs $33.9 billion, and Wells Fargo, which needs $13.7 billion.
That leaves only two firms that must actually raise more cash. GMAC, the auto finance company that is historically tied to General Motors, needs an additional $9.1 billion in new capital. Regions Financial Corp., a regional bank based in Alabama, needs another $400 miliion.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/07/AR2009050703208_pf.html
#12 veto,
I saw on CBS news one guy saying the stress test used a 10% unemployment rate. He thought they should have used 12% for the scenario.
Paul Miller was his name I think.
On the other hand, they used a loss rate higher than happened in TGD.
stress tests seem like a conflict from the start. who in there right mind is going to be objective when grading themselves? If they are saying $75 billion, just multiply times twenty to get the real number. they should just admit to insolvency and nationalize for a predetermined period of time.
The median home price in Detroit is $5,737.
The median home price in New York City and San Francisco is more than one hundred times that.
Grim, your analysis?
You could buy a whole neighborhood in Detroit!! Then raze one of the blocks, plant some flowers, and make a park named after yourself!
..but then, it’d be a really long commute to the nearest available job.
sas says:
May 7, 2009 at 9:21 am
“including 28 in the Fire Department”
wow. thats a shame.
and you think calling 911 now sucks and is slow.
wait till they start cutting more EMS.
maybe that burgler will wait for you to get a dial tone on the tele before he decides to beat the crap out of you?
1. alarm
2. gun
3. dog
4. put your sig sauer sticker on your mailbox
13/safeashouses- Unemployment hitting 12%. Seems high. We’d have to go up almost 50% from here.
Give it a couple more week of new claims dropping, then I think you can safely say we passed the peak of unemployment.
safeashouses — from last thread.
The 450k one in Brandywine Rise seems nice, a bit older. I think Dunellin has bad schools — and is south of Rt 22, low lying area.
I also meant to say earlier about newer houses than Warren.
I find Watchung to be nice, but again less affordable than Green Brook.
I think a very good deal would to be get something like this one (2001 built) for under 500k:
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Green-Brook-Twp_NJ_08812_1108832113
(though one caveat, to get to that place, 233 Westend Ave, there are two routes and both are very narrow, crowded streets north of 22 — Rock Ave and West End Ave)
S
yikes, 18
4. put your sig sauer sticker on your mailbox “Got Sig?”
:)
sl
ER Anectdata:
10 hrs. 27 patients. 11 self pay/charity care/medicaid
40% uninsured/underinsured
sl
“who in there right mind is going to be objective when grading themselves? ”
They didn’t
#22 – You ain’t kidding.
From the Star Ledger this morning:
New record for uninsured N.J. kids
The number of uninsured children in New Jersey has reached an all-time high despite the wide availability of FamilyCare, one of the nation’s most generous state-run health insurance programs for working poor families, according to a report released yesterday.
There were 360,000 children who lacked health coverage for at least part of 2008, based on income tax filings to the state this year. The state had previously never topped the 294,000 calculated by the U.S. Census Bureau for all of 2006 and 2007.
From the WSJ:
Kelsey Grammer Sells, Leases in Los Angeles
“Frasier” star Kelsey Grammer has sold a Los Angeles house for $3.3 million, 19% less than he paid for it in 2007, and leased a seven-bedroom English-style manor after it failed to sell for $18.9 million.
…
Frontman Tom DeLonge of rock-pop band Blink-182 has relisted his San Diego-area home for $5.1 million, more than 20% below what he spent for the house, renovations and décor.
In 2005, the 33-year-old singer and his wife, Jennifer, an interior designer, paid $5.5 million for the house in Rancho Santa Fe, a bedroom community about 25 miles north of the city. The couple spent more than $1 million on renovations and décor, according to their listing agent, Laura Barry, of Barry Estates.
…
“Superman Returns” producer Jon Peters (pictured at right) will now take $19.95 million for his three partly developed adjoining vacant lots in Beverly Hills, about half what he wanted in 2008. The former studio chief also owns a ranch in Santa Barbara. Jeffrey Hyland and Brooke Kaufman, of Hilton & Hyland/Christie’s Great Estates, have the listing.
Investor Stanley Chais, who funneled funds to Bernard Madoff, has cut the price of his Sierra Towers condominium 15%, to $4 million, less than the $4.4 million he paid for the condo in 2007. Mr. Chais and his wife, Pamela, are also willing to lease for $20,000 a month, down from $28,000 initially. Coldwell Banker’s Guy Levy and Linda May have the listing.
From the NYT:
Out of Work in Finance, They Turn to Teaching
WITH an M.B.A. and 20 years’ experience as a financial analyst, Kathy Marshall should be at the top of her professional game.
But the game ended late last year, when the 44-year-old consultant from Chatham found her work had dried up. Her specialty was building financial models for business start-ups.
“I kept thinking everything would get better, but when September hit I decided it was time to re-evaluate what I wanted to do,” Mrs. Marshall said. Her husband was employed but worried that his job could be at risk, she said. The couple has four children.
“I started thinking about teaching math,” Mrs. Marshall said, “and went out and got my substitute teacher certificate.”
Another 3 to 5% Mr. De Luca? Get real!! Yeah another 3 to 5% and we are all good, and than prices start rising again. These clowns just do not stop.
NJ investment fund director on Squawk, mumbling about how impressed he is with the market now.
This could be a better contraindicator than bi.
Only CNBC can present a simpering moron- who lost 25 bn last year in the dumbest way possible- as an expert. This guy should be in jail for what he did.
#26 grim
I think Mrs Marshall is in for a bit of a shock. Mrs PGC got here sub license back in 2003 after biting the bullet from Lucent.
Substitute teachers make on average $75 per day. A lot of times you get a call at 6AM, telling you, you are working that day.
The sub license allows you to teach in the school while you get your full license. But it takes a commitment buy the school to support you while you get you go through the process. The schools have to report the licensing levels of their teachers so a teacher without a full license hurts their numbers.
Mrs PGC went for an interview at a school were the principal was very hostile. He had a chip on his shoulder on “how people think they can waltz in to a school and be a teacher after they washed out of a career. Teaching is a passion and should be treated as such”
My advice to Mrs Marshall would be take a year, go back to school and get a full license. It will make the path a lot easier.
last….i said laasstt. This posting is closed
“Who’s Behind the Financial Meltdown?”
http://www.publicintegrity.org/investigations/economic_meltdown/
This poster remains one of the most negative individuals here. A poster child for negative talk and thought.
The market has gone way up just like bi predicted and rather than be happy, you want to get angry. We’re heading for a V shaped recovery, not the L you porn pessimists so badly want. The banks are in better shape than people thought and people are beginning to buy real estate again. This is a cause for celebration and not for resentment. I’m really happy now!!
Clotpoll says:
May 8, 2009 at 7:16 am
NJ investment fund director on Squawk, mumbling about how impressed he is with the market now.
This could be a better contraindicator than bi.
Only CNBC can present a simpering moron- who lost 25 bn last year in the dumbest way possible- as an expert. This guy should be in jail for what he did.
#30 – Just gettin’ started.
“Banks That Received Federal Cash Enabled Subprime Lenders, Report Finds”
http://www.truthout.org/050709M
This poster remains one of the most negative individuals here. A poster child for negative talk and thought.
The market has gone way up just like bi predicted and rather than be happy, you want to get angry. We’re heading for a V shaped recovery, not the L you pessimists so badly want. The banks are in better shape than people thought and people are beginning to buy real estate again. This is a cause for celebration and not for resentment. I’m really happy now!!
Clotpoll says:
May 8, 2009 at 7:16 am
NJ investment fund director on Squawk, mumbling about how impressed he is with the market now.
This could be a better contraindicator than bi.
Only CNBC can present a simpering moron- who lost 25 bn last year in the dumbest way possible- as an expert. This guy should be in jail for what he did.
what? credit will no longer replace middle class salaries that were outscorced?
no middle class means?
yup….you got it.
“Consumer Credit Plunges”
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/consumer-credit-plunges.html
SAS
everything’s hobo:
they didnt do what?
gov funds the big banks through tarp. and then gov issues these tests. how convenient. to me it seems silly. their motives are all aligned. How can they objectively analyze the banks and still remain responsible by not tanking markets?
between borat obama & reinvestor101, i have a smile on my face.
very rare for 8 in the morning.
SAS
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2230
I have been reading some psychology articles today. I am very interested in the behavioral aspect of the consumer’s response to our economy. I found this quote from the attached article telling:
“A Question of Trust”
“What happens when the bubble breaks, as it inevitably does?” Herring asked. The pendulum swings back to the other extreme. “People find it all too easy to imagine that bad things can happen to the market and they withdraw. And they tend to overshoot. They act very, very risk averse for quite a long time until they are persuaded that (real estate) is once again a safe asset to hold.”
“According to David M. Sachs, a training and supervision analyst at the Psychoanalytic Center in Philadelphia, the crisis today is not one of confidence, but one of trust.”
…a radical reversal of how to be gratified occurred…
“People now feel more gratified saving money than spending it, Sachs suggested. They have trouble trusting promises from the government because they feel the government has let them down.”
(True for me anyway…risk averse – probably overshooting – Saving now feels satisfying.)
Anyway…
“Helping people recover from a traumatic experience provides a useful analogy for understanding how to help the economy recover from its own traumatic experience, Sachs pointed out. The public will need to “hold the perpetrators of the economic disaster responsible and take what actions they can to prevent them from harming the economy again. In addition, the public will have to see proof that government and business leaders can behave responsibly before they trust them again, he argued.”
That’s where I am –
The big banks won. How am I to feel like ever investing penny one again…I have lost, not just confidence – but trust.
veto [15],
Bingo. Simply another dog and pony show. Basically, a self examination. An examiner can only work with the #’s provided. In addition to this, any blackbox can deliver the desired result.
How about a real stress test, take away the taxpayer injections and govt guarantees. Wait, the market has already determined the value of the dead, under this scenario.
Want to hear banks squeal, take away TLGP. Let them rely on the private sector for short and intermediate funding. They all all quick to note that they don’t need tarp, haven’t heard anybody suggest the possibility of a debt offering without this guarantee.
“We’re heading for a V shaped recovery”
50,5,
I actually agree with you. Just turn the letter upside down. Green shoots without roots just won’t cut it.
More on the dog and pony show, no link;
I reckon 80% of my exposures are to listed instruments. They are easy to price and easy to buy and sell. The other 20%, and I am not telling you the value because I haven’t a clue, is exposure to unlisted, unquoted, OTC, off exchange stuff. I own debts in Lehman so its probably a good 4 years before I get to see value; I own AIG instruments that have spreads as wide as my ego; and bits of Icelandic paper knocked together using tippex and sellotape that I have framed for prosperity. Valuing much of it is not possible or quite frankly warranted. I buy for the long haul and have no interest in valuing something that has no market and I cannot sell anyway.
When the people that didn’t do anything wrong are losing their jobs and homes, then the system is broken.
safeas/clot/lurking etc.
What would be a fair bid for this one — the one safeas was mentioning yesterday?
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Green-Brook_NJ_08812_1108679809
It is ’84. It is a nice location. Given that there is a “short sale” potential, is there more leverage?
S
Guess what??
I’m starting to resent being the butt of jokes and the general disrepect I get around here, particularly as I’ve called for everyone to be far more supportive of the economy. How does one do that? Well, for starters, stop with the negative talk. If you notice the press is full of accounts that the economy is starting to turn. There has been a drumbeat of positive talk like this over the last couple of weeks. Why doesn’t Clod focus on this? Why doesn’t he mention any of this?
Let me answer that–because he’s just a mean onery beady eyed terrorist with a sniveling dog.
people are beginning to buy real estate again.
This is simply not the case. I’ve got the April stats already, the first 4 months of this year have all set new lows. There is no improvement locally. Maybe things are picking up in Nevada, but not here.
The jobs report today will be bogus. Well they’re always bogus, this one will be the king. Every April there are adjustments for the magical B/D. There will be an adjustment for approx 250K jobs added, B/D.
Cheerio.
See ya later. Going to get a piece of my tarp.
43/Sastry-
Any comps to go by in that neighborhood? The house looks pretty good.
539K and 8.9%
borat o’bama –
You’ve got to get up earlier than 7:53AM to declare “Last”
Hell, at 7:53AM….I’m watching the last few minutes of Denise Austin on ESPN Classic !!
I emphasize watching – not exercising along with her.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. April nonfarm payrolls fall 539,000
U.S. April unemployment rate rises to 8.9%
U.S. April payrolls largely as expected
U.S. April manufacturing payrolls down 149,000
U.S. April services payrolls down 269,000
Record 27% out of work longer than 6 months
U.S. jobs fall 5.7 million, or 4.1%, in recession
Hey, everybody knows that the left coast is a trend setter and it’s only a matter of time before people come out in droves here in to buy this market!
I’m so happy today. Please don’t rob me of my joy!
grim says:
May 8, 2009 at 8:26 am
people are beginning to buy real estate again.
This is simply not the case. I’ve got the April stats already, the first 4 months of this year have all set new lows. There is no improvement locally. Maybe things are picking up in Nevada, but not here.
“I’m so happy today. Please don’t rob me of my joy!”
50.5,
Enjoy your day.
According to the study, the median home price in the New York area was $455,000 in the fourth quarter of 2008, down about 13 percent from $525,000 in the third quarter of 2007,
wow since everyone on this site makes 250k we are how at less than 2x income to buy a house. Good thing we are all handsome too and hung like donkeys.
Good thing we are all handsome too and hung like donkeys.
Hey, speak for yourself; a donkey is small fry. Now if you’re like me a hung like a rhino, then you got something to talk about.
I know I’m not the only Elizabeth Warren fan around here. As SL updates us daily on the uptick in uninsured/self pay patients, I looked up this article authored by Warren regarding Medical Bankruptcies.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A9447-2005Feb8.html
“How did illness bankrupt middle-class Americans with health insurance? For some, high co-payments, deductibles, exclusions from coverage and other loopholes left them holding the bag for thousands of dollars in out-of-pocket costs when serious illness struck. But even families with Cadillac coverage were often bankrupted by medical problems.
Too sick to work, they suddenly lost their jobs. With the jobs went most of their income and their health insurance — a quarter of all employers cancel coverage the day you leave work because of a disabling illness; another quarter do so in less than a year. Many of the medically bankrupt qualified for some disability payments (eventually), and had the right under the COBRA law to continue their health coverage — if they paid for it themselves. But how many families can afford a $1,000 monthly premium for coverage under COBRA, especially after the breadwinner has lost his or her job? “
Strange. Market futures were halved with the release of the unemployment report.
I suppose in opposite world, bad news is good news for the market and good news is now perceived as bad.
Mortgage Modifications in News. Will it affect the Inventory level in the market?
Comic o’ the day:
http://economistsview.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451b33869e201156f811217970c-pi
Website link for the Article i am referring to in #58
http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/08/real_estate/new_mortgage_mod_program/index.htm?cnn=yes
bad news = free money???
RE: I’m really happy now!!
So Dow went from 14K to 7K to 8K in one year and you are happy. I guess it does not take much to make you happy.
All Hype (61):
Free money? Maybe today, but you and your offspring will be paying for it tomorrow.
Actualy study referenced in above post:
http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/content/full/hlthaff.w5.63/DC1
Fed Determines Banks Need $74.6 billion in Fantasyland Scenario, $599 Billion in Cakewalk Scenario
The official results of the stress test are in. In the Fed’s Fantasyland scenario, the Fed Determines 10 Banks Need Capital of $74.6 Billion.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/05/fed-determines-banks-need-746-billion.html
Here’s a good reason to drop a cool $695k on this Montclair listing (GSMLS 2636229):
“Also located across street from beautiful historic home of Apollo 11 astronaut Buzz Aldrin.”
Does this Short Hills home count as “newly renovated”? (GSMLS 2680832)
“FIRST TIME ON THE MARKET IN ALMOST 60 YEARS. OPP TO OWN A BIT OF HISTORY-THE PARSILS HOUSE-ONE OF THE ORIGINAL SETTLERS IN THE AREA-EXTENSIVE RENOVATIONS DONE IN 1960’S -SOLD AS IS”
“Also located across street from beautiful historic home of Apollo 11 astronaut Buzz Aldrin.”
Worth at least $100k.
Does Buzz do birthday parties?
Minyanville, yesterday:
“Commercial mortgage delinquencies rose to an 11-year high in April as credit conditions made it difficult for landlords to refinance loans.
A Bloomberg story citing property research firm Trepp LLC reports the percentage of loans that are delinquent by 30 days or more rose to 2.45% – nearly double the rate 5 years ago, and the highest since the firm began keeping records in 1998.
From October of 2005 through November of 2008, the delinquency rate remained just under 1%. But recently apartment delinquencies began to surge. After rising to 3.84% in March, they jumped to 5.24% in April.
Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledged the poor conditions in the commercial real estate sector. “There’s a large amount of CRE financing coming due in the next year or two,” he said, “and we need to have that market functioning so that can happen smoothly.”
Is the market simply counting on Bernanke to save the day?”
68 Grim – I dunno, but if he does, and charges less than The Little Gym then I think Stu will be a little upset with me.
Did they pass the stress test?
Fannie Mae to Tap $19 Billion in Treasury Capital After Loss
Share | Email | Print | A A A
By Dawn Kopecki
May 8 (Bloomberg) — Fannie Mae, operating under a federal conservatorship since September, asked the U.S. Treasury for a $19 billion capital investment as a seventh straight quarterly loss drove the mortgage-finance company’s net worth below zero.
A wider first-quarter net loss of $23.2 billion, or $4.09 a share, pushed the company to request its second draw from a $200 billion funding commitment from the government, Washington- based Fannie Mae said in a filing today with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company took $15.2 billion in April.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHa4AB2ja3qw&refer=home
“Also located across street from beautiful historic home of Apollo 11 astronaut Buzz Aldrin.”
Now if it said Buzz Lightyear, I might consider it.
And Grim, don’t tease is with your knowledge of the April sales numbers.
BC (39)-
Transfusing a corpse does not bring it back to life.
“Weekend at Bernie’s” continues…
I tried to sell Gary the house next to Colbert.
The seller balked when we asked him to sign an addendum agreeing to at least 2 Colbert BBQ appearances a year.
sastry (43)-
Dude.
BC…this one’s for you:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/gold-GLD-MVL-cards-Books-Hulk/index/a/21520
“Is the market simply counting on Bernanke to save the day?”
Clot,
Well, the bond vigilantes are back and watching his every move.
-For the April/June Qtr 2008, Treasury issuance was $13billion
-For the April/June Qtr 2009, Treasury issuance is expected to be $361 billion
-For the July/September Qtr 2009, Treasury issuance is expected to be $515 billion
Stu [76],
Good one.
[29] pgc
“Teaching is a passion and should be treated as such”
Too bad you cannot get the NJEA to back that up.
So, in recent months the Labor Department estimated a loss of 651,000 jobs then revised it up to 681,000, and estimated a loss of 663,000 then revised it up to 699,000. I assert it is safe to assume that the numbers released today, 539,000 jobs lost in April, also undercounts the number and, based on recent month’s data, one should be safe in assuming about 25,000-30,000 additional job losses will be added to the final numbers. That puts the losses very, very close to expectations. That said, even if not a single additional job is added to the initial numbers, we are still on pace to lose over 6,000,000 jobs this year.
More importantly, for the moment, is that while one may be able to delude one’s self that the possible reduction in new job loses points to an improving economy, the fact that the unemployment rate keeps rising — it was 8.5% in March and in April rose to 8.9% (the highest rate since 1983, a time that I remember well — does not bode well for consumer spending. This represents nearly a 5% increase in unemployment in one month. The spin meisters will be out in force, but the numbers are NOT positive.
“Teaching is a passion and should be treated as such”
Why is it then that all my teacher friends on Facebook just constantly post countdowns to their next paid days off?
Toyota sees losses deepening this year
Toyota reports worst annual loss since its 1937 founding — and sees more red ink ahead
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Toyota-sees-losses-deepening-apf-15180325.html?sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
“Toyota Motor Corp. lost 765.8 billion yen ($7.7 billion) in the January-March quarter — a bigger loss than General Motors reported — resulting in its worst fiscal year since the Japanese automaker was founded in 1937.”
It appears that these green shoots are not of the Bok Choy variety.
Does eating massive amounts of pork rinds impart passion to the eater?
‘Cause most of the teachers at N Hunterdon look like they’ve cornered the market on them.
Just me, but I think it’s sorta important that teachers not present an image to the world of being the equivalent of clothed blimps.
And yes, I do have a problem with fat people.
Gator (81)-
Why do adults create Facebook pages?
“Why do adults create Facebook pages?”
Because they haven’t found this blog?
Gator,
Do you have a link to the listing? I tried getting to it via MLS but something happened and I could not.
OT:
If intelligence is an indicator, we are doomed.
My recent conversation with a patient:
Me: So, any chance you might be pregnant?
Patient: Nope, I don’t even have a boyfriend.
Me: Okay, So if I give you narcotic medications for pain, who will be picking you up tonight?
Patient: Oh, I will call my fiance to pick me up.
Me: Hmmmm, right. Uh, let me get your prescriptions and discharge paperwork….
Note to self – no boyfriend = no sex and fiance = no sex, either.
sl
Shore – Do you want the Short Hills or Montclair listing?
Montclair
Maybe they’re saving themselves for marriage.
Shore – http://emailrpt.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?report=clientfull&Id=43427619_6166
If people here think 2000 or 2001 was the time to buy real estate, will you be saying in 2012, that 2009 was the time to get into the stock market?
[91] silera
Haven’t you been following current events?
Marriage = no sex
[88] still
I love stupid people. They are good for business and the economy.
But I hate it when they start voting.
[81] gator
See my earlier comment, re: NJEA
Clot 85 – Facebook is a fantastic resource for grown-ups. Remember all those folks you knew 20 years ago or so in HS….you’ve maybe wondered where they are or what they’re up to, but you have no desire to maintain a relationship with them? You can friend them and be a fly on the wall of their life but not actually have to communicate with them. It’s great fun.
Aside from that, I have actually reconnected with some people that I lost touch with that were decent human beings.
Or you can play online scrabble with your friends far away, or find out that your college roommate’s ex-boyfriend is now living in NC as a woman.
[85] clot
an umemployed (and IMHO, unemployable) friend of mine has been goading me to post on facebook.
Finally did it and now he goads me to post more.
As if the fact that I stopped posting to his blog wasn’t enough of a clue.
Linkedin is a different story, however. I will keep up with that.
GAtor,
^ bedrooms and 2 baths. No conflicts in THAT house in the mornings. Better to take one BR and turn it into a decent full bath or two 1/2 baths.
[97] gator
That assumes you want to find out about people in high school.
I did find one friend that I haven’t seen forever (and boy did he gain weight), so I plan to keep up with him, and maybe a couple of other people, but I have zero interest in knowing what people I didn’t think about then are doing now.
“If people here think 2000 or 2001 was the time to buy real estate, will you be saying in 2012, that 2009 was the time to get into the stock market?”
What’s the correlation?
“If people here think 2000 or 2001 was the time to buy real estate, will you be saying in 2012, that 2009 was the time to get into the stock market?”
What’s the correlation?
————————————
Missed opportunities.
GAtor,
BTW, wasnt that Aldrin’s boyhood home as opposed to ah historic home in which he currently resides?
Shore 103 – I believe you are correct.
plume (100)-
Copy that. Have no interest at all in seeing anybody I went to HS with. That’s why I don’t live in my hometown anymore.
That, and the open warrants…
Marriage = no sex
Well, duh.
“Missed opportunities.”
[102]
So you are saying that the stock market will be substantially higher in 2012?
And to think that Chi wants my posts to include disclaimers?
107
Yes, stock market will be higher by 2012. Is this another opportunity you will miss and blog about it?
Nom/Clot,
My 10 year reunion — many, many years ago – was somewhat interesting. After that, who cares, really. With rare exception, the people from that time in one’s life that one wants to keep-up with, one will keep-up with. I suppose that for the very small number of people for whom tht was their glory days/best times of their lives it becomes important to relive them and connect with folks from HS, but for the rest of us?
Frankly, the best time in my life is now.
re: #100 Facebook = all fun and games going down memory lane, that is until the stalkers show up.
A buddy used to define sex drive as an irrestible biological urge to copulate that emerges at puberty and ends with marriage.
Fannie to get another $19B from treasury after having gotten a $15B injection 5 weeks ago. Luckily, money is free.
[108],
Just like I missed the RE bubble?
Government hiring pushes down unemployment rate. Private sector sheds 611,000 jobs. So those of us still employed get to pay for ADDITIONAL government employees at a time we should be slashing government spending. Yea, this is tenable.
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE5472SK20090508
Speaking of HS:
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5445KF20090507
My two main predictions for 2009 would be Toyota would need a bail out from the Japanese govt and the stock market would be in recovery by Memorial Day!! Sounded crazy christmas time.
So just added up my bank bonds I bought in last six months, 5k AXP, 15K BAC, 38K C, 10K CMA, 9k COF, 5K JPM, 2K HSBC, 28k SOV, 5K MI, 5 NCC. They all look very good today and I have been clipping on avaerage 13% coupons. People all should have ran into Citi took a 100K home equity loan at 5% and bought 200K of 7% Citi bonds at 50 cents on a dollar. Pay off 5K interest on loan and collect 14K coupons and at maturity get back 200K on the 100K of bonds you bought. Could of would of should of. Clot and BC were hiding in caves with binladen and missed the buying opportunity. I am sad it is over. I no longer have any desire to buy a bank bond that yields less than 12%, 3 years ago 7% would have been a great rate.
114, that means high deficit and high inflation. Cash will become trash.
92,
It looks like our good friend Susan Adler, of stick-men fame, has that listing.
John [116],
You have obviously missed my past posts. I stated, numerous times, that I was bearish the economy but long the market, technicals versus fundamentals. Today, flat old economy stocks just long new economy. Coming soon, spread new/old.
[105] clot
I think all the warrants on me have expired, or at least the statutes of limitation have run out.
Except for that federal income tax thing though. Damn!
Red Sox Great Dom DiMaggio, dead today at 92
For all you true baseball fans, here is a great obituary. I learned a lot about this underrated player.
http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2009/05/former_red_sox_1.html
“That means high deficit and high inflation. Cash will become trash.”
[117],
So you are saying that stock market gains, in 2012, will be fueled by inflation?
Am I the only one that thinks LinkedIn is pricey? If I was unemployed and wanted to contact people or drum up some business then I’d be on it. But, what is it? $30 per month just to be able to post in an adult career oriented community?
A bit much.
[123] zieba
I don’t pay the premium, and no one I know does.
I think you get the full benefit without the premium as all the higher membership lets you do is see complete bios. Big deal.
Anyone who wants my bio can get it off the firm’s website or learn all they need to know by googling me.
(doesn’t hurt too much that I share a name with a guy reputed to be an awesome skier and regionally renowned gearhead. Wish I were that good in both categories. But I have to caution folks that he ain’t me.)
GM burning through $113M per day. Nice.
“G.M. said it lost $6 billion in the first quarter as its sales around the world fell 40 percent and revenue was cut nearly in half.
But the most concerning number is the $10.2 billion in cash that G.M. depleted in three months, the equivalent of $113 million a day. That is nearly twice the company’s rate of spending in the fourth quarter.”
Some 401k’s are now rejecting redemption requests or giving the investors illiquid collateral-pool holdings instead of cash.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/401k-funds-putting-locks-on-your-cash.aspx?page=1
#125 – A fun WaPo article on the GM restructure. How do they plan on saving cash, you ask? By doubling the amount of overseas production!
Plume- some people have all the luck. My name in google brings up a teenager that murdered her parents.
Rail group warns economic recovery still far off
Rail group warns economic ‘green shoots’ might not yet be visible, as US shipments sink again
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Rail-group-warns-economic-apf-15171878.html?.v=1
“Freight shipments have fallen by double-digits consistently since December. Major railroads are considered key indicators of the country’s overall economic health because they ship a wide range of consumer products; including coal for electricity, lumber for houses and grain for food and feed.”
When you google my name, it brings you to a popular ladies shoes website and some piss-poor Jerry Lewis Telethon performance.
WOW! – Frank – Quick get your checkbook out and run don’t walk, bottom is here Frank for Hoboken!
“Archie Bunker’s” house in Hoboken dropped the asking price 718k.
Was $2.3 million
Now $1.58 million
http://www.singletongalmannrealestate.com/sales/castlepoint_912.html
#85 clot:I have friend in theri 40’s with Facebook pages. It is jokish. It is like those Mom’ and their teen daughters, with matching shorts emblazoned with Juicy on the back of their butts. Very, very pathetic.
#93 we: Why, based on what? What is your point?
118 Zieba – It’s not her listing. GSMLS brands the emails with the realtor who sent you the email, not the listing agent.
#108 we:Yes, stock market will be higher by 2012. I
Why based on what? You are of course entitled to your opinion, but how about backing it with some facts or reasons?
And as far as missing any opportunities?
Ah grasshopper, so young, so silly,
105 Clot – I was amazed by how many of my former classmates settled in my boring, nothing to offer, central NJ strip mall suburban town.
Although maybe their brains were impaired by the proximity to our 1980’s superfund site.
Re LinkedIn – I like to look up my co-workers and see how many of them lie about what they are doing.
My favorite was a young woman who not only lied about her role in the department, but included a hyperlink to her LinkedIn profile in her work email signature.
A close second was a young woman that we were moving towards firing (she found a position with one of our competitors before the axe actually fell) and had one of her co-worker friends here write her a recomendation on LinkedIn. He wrote all about her “poise” in working in a “often challenging work environment”. The recommender is actually an attorney and his supervisor was none too happy about the public recommendation.
I posted the listing below, the other day 3 bed/1 bath decent shae rancd listed at 299k, around 2000/01 prices. The taxes on this very modest house are currently $9,500, after this years tax increase, they will be slightly over 10K.
Higher the taxes lower the prices?
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2919978&id=999999
I’ve seen a few homes in Bergenfield aroung the 300K mark in the same position. Price seems reasonable but the taxes are 10K plus.
Grim – Checking on the April 09 home sales report on a nameless realtor’s site shows that there were ZERO closed sales in Chatham Boro in April 2009. I thought the market was just peachy all along the MidTown Direct line!
#139 silera: Bergenfield has one of the highest property taxes in Bergen Co, in the top 3 I believe, and the town itself is in a downward spiral.
I would not look to buy there if I were you.
Thanks 3b. I’m out of the market for at least 5 years regardless of prices or taxes. I just like to look.
I’m not really picky about towns though. My husband grew up in Union City and I grew up in the Lower East Side- everything is really an upgrade from there. =)
Silera says:
May 8, 2009 at 11:11 am
I’m not really picky about towns though. My husband grew up in Union City and I grew up in the Lower East Side- everything is really an upgrade from there. =)
Sil: ever go to Meow Mix?
3B: Higher the taxes lower the prices?
Thats a good reason why the 2.5x-3x gross income is a metric that doesnt work in nj.
Must use PITI expenses 30% of income to account for the high carrying costs.
Still, thats a nice asking price for a starter home.
#144 veto”Still, thats a nice asking price for a starter home.
Yes, it is. I had a long time realtor in town tell me 2 years ago, you would never see any decent house in town ever again sell for under….400K!!! And the one I posted is under 300k!!
river edge no less.
That is actually a reassuring comp, whether its needs to be bulldozed or not doesnt matter to me. not to mention it may close for 250k.
chi (143)-
I have.
Meow Mix and The Vault. Same night.
Merrill Lynch Short Hills employee arrested
Bergen County investigators arrested a Merrill Lynch Short Hills employee yesterday for his alleged connection to a mob gambling ring. read full story on:
http://www.theitemonline.com/NC/0/1566.html
shore – 111 – LMAO!
and yes … i’m married
MER probably couldn’t make money running a sports book, either.
Last weekend, my brother in law had a mortgage broker come to his apt with details on how he could purchase w/ 3% down. Also, he used a qualification ratio 38% of AGI.
I grew up in a 47 square meter mortar shelled apartment in an bloc apartment complex somewhere in eastern Europe.
47 square meters = 505.907 sq/ft
Still, even I won’t live in some of the szytboxes being put on the market. How do these people live in these antiquate and unkept environments? Lace curtains and wooden window frames? I’m not a big Moby fan come mod freak but I wouldn’t mind living in a clean, modern, minimalistic space.
BTW, I sold that 505 sq/ft urine soaked pad to a lucky buyer 3-4 weeks before SHTF for > 75K USD. The lucky buyer chose a CHF denominated loan. Ouch.
The other apartment I was lucky to unload was located next to a planned “tower of dreams” that I knew would never be built. This was supposed to be the crown jewel of city center, some kind of glass condo complex that would lift all boats in the vicinity. Agents cringed at my “liquidation price” but I got it closed days before Lehman happened. Larger @ 986 sq/ft with an equivalently larger crazy bubble tag.
I gave up bloging for Lent so maybe I missed it, what is your buys on the long side or predictions, your old place GS stock has been on fire the last 8 weeks.
BC Bob says:
May 8, 2009 at 10:17 am
John [116],
You have obviously missed my past posts. I stated, numerous times, that I was bearish the economy but long the market, technicals versus fundamentals. Today, flat old economy stocks just long new economy. Coming soon, spread new/old.
38% of AGI is meaningless without knowing salary. Someone at 50K would have only 31K Gross income left over for his family to pay taxes, medical, insurance, car, commute etc. Which is near impossible in NY. While someone making 500K a year at na 38% AGI would have 310K left over gross to live off
BlindJust says:
May 8, 2009 at 11:34 am
Last weekend, my brother in law had a mortgage broker come to his apt with details on how he could purchase w/ 3% down. Also, he used a qualification ratio 38% of AGI.
Clot… wife and I are actually thinking about seeing that that place. The asking price is within our budget, so it is not much of “bid low enough to lose”, but to see what should be a reasonable expectation. We haven’t looked inside the house — we did see if from outside a while ago when we drove by that area…
Come on, give me a number. Your numbers have been so far on spot (though both things haven’t closed yet!).
S
Keepin’ It Real Estate: Subprime Lending Is Back With a Vengeance
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/22591/from/yahoo
“But this time, reckless financial innovation isn’t being hatched on Wall Street. Instead, state governments are angling to “monetize” first-time homebuyer tax credits so borrowers can purchase homes with little or no money down.
If this sounds eerily similar to the type of lending practices that got us into this mess, well, it should.”
[137] gator,
Funny. And the attorney should have known better.
Since I am linked to Stu (at least I think I am), I can check out the “poise”
To me, the description suggests that she worked for a tyrant and managed not to kill herself or others. (in fact, that sounds a lot like my previous law firm gig).
[158] stu,
But at least there is no buffer like FDIC between the failed borrowers and the taxpayer. Much more efficient.
Chi-I was not the meow mix desired clientelle but my kids day care was around the corner. They were nice enough to move some questionable fliers up off the 4 year old eye level for us. Really cool of them.
I was more of a 7b type.
156 – Combined income 85K. I just found it surprising that these “opportunities” were still available. Perhaps it’s apart of a first time home buyers program. Back on ’93 I purchased w/ 2%down through the MFA program. Fortunately, I was only 3 yrs out of college so my salary was rising (as opposed to the opposite now)
http://www.tradersmagazine.com/photos/2009_15464/103735-1.html
now this vendor has talent
[111] shore
“A buddy used to define sex drive as an irrestible biological urge to copulate that emerges at puberty and ends with marriage.”
LOL right now but I think that is incorrect, at least when it comes to men. The urge doesn’t end at marriage; only the sex does.
A few months back, there was some study released that suggested over 20% of marriages in the US were “sexless” (defined as 8 or fewer times per year). Explains the marketplace that the Ashley Madison guys wanted to tap into with their Superbowl ad buy (and which became a boon to them when the network backed out—they got the same advertising for free!)
J [163],
The guy on the left or the right?
John – 155 – Since Nov ‘2008, I’ve been 2X long Latin America
J [155],
You keep confusing me with 3b. I did not work for GS.
Yeah, at the March get together, which Bruce attended, I told JB and Chi that I was long and bearish, looking at technicals rather than fundamentals. Well, today, out of all US stocks, only long anti-dollar plays, including CD and AD, ETF’s. Oh, of course, shiny.
Now, doing my homework on shorting S&P’s, not yet, but soon.
To all you lurkers: Disclaimers
Silera, 7b
i have found myself walking out of guernica 3am miserable and half deaf with pounding headache on one too many occassion.
now, the pioneer bar? i can do that all night without a problem.
J,
One other item, pretty soon I will tarped. Won’t be able to discuss individual markets. I guess it’s back to RE topics? What RE?
“defined as 8 or fewer times per year”
Whoa.
John, comments on this?
164 Nom – This blog is rapidly descending to the level of Stu’s fantasy sports message boards.
On a recent “girls trip” to Las Vegas, a single friend of mine joined all us married old biddies. We were trying to fix her up with the hot guys in the club so we could all live vicariously through her. All she wanted to do was whine that she wanted to meet someone and get married so she would have someone to sleep with every night. All the married ladies just laughed at her.
“defined as 8 or fewer times per year”
That’s what happens with debt upto the eyeballs.
There was an article I read somewhere that people in third world countries have more sex than people in developed countries..
“There was an article I read somewhere that people in third world countries have more sex than people in developed countries.”
Because they don’t have cable.
… or internet access …
BC – tend to agree w/ inverted V. The only question is timing that peak. IMHO I think that this market can run for 2 yrs.
Zack says, people in third world countries have more sex than people in developed countries..
I keep telling you guys that third world has it all figured out but you dont listen. When i was in third world, you couldnt smack the smiles off the locals faces, living in grass huts, eating bugs. I kept asking myself, why in the world would they be smiling at a time like this? I would have scowl ear to ear living in those conditions but no, they love it. Then walk down fifth ave, we are miserable. but i’ll take rich and miserable 7 days of the week though.
Marriage is like working at Burger King, the first few weeks you go nuts eating free whoppers and fries but slowly you get sick of it, and then you go out for lunch. That plus kids are tough on a womens body, the 40 year old married lady gets very insecure compared to the 30 year old in the workplace hottie. Of course the 40 year old married guy wants what he can’t have, there is lust in the heart even if he does not ever let the shark out of the cage.
A few months back, there was some study released that suggested over 20% of marriages in the US were “sexless” (defined as 8 or fewer times per year). Explains the marketplace that the Ashley Madison guys wanted to tap into with their Superbowl ad buy (and which became a boon to them when the network backed out—they got the same advertising for free!)
OT:
http://www.skincancertakesfriends.org/sctf08/?utm_source=ClubOlay&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ClubOlay_may0409
free skin cancer screening (for women, I think)
sl
Blind [175],
I agree, the run can be prolonged, especially if inflation starts filtering thru.
This is [BEEEEEEP] great!
We’re all handsome, have great teeth, push our kids around in the most functional strollers, make a quarter large, have full/luscious hair, are hung like rhinos, can tell the temperature in China, are never on the wrong side of the trade, drive pricey European touring sedans and have perfect sex lives.
We’re in good company. Hahahaha.
I read a study that said married couples have more sex than singles.
I think too many sex studies are interupting sex.
zieba,
LMAO.
I’m afraid I don’t see how the “experts” will be able (or want) to keep it at bay. Won’t inflation will deflate real debt?
The Real Memo Out Of The Bureau Of Lies And Statistics
Posted by Tyler Durden at 9:52 AM
“We’re leveling off! We’re leveling off!”—so is the hope of TTT, Helicopter Ben, Larry the Wall Street Lackey and the rest of Team Obama. “This recession is leveling off!”
No it’s not: The unemployment figures just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are totally cosmetic: We lost a whole lot more than 531,000 unemployed.
First, the “seasonal adjustment”, which is a black box that can tweek me into looking like Dumbo the flying elephant. They’re knocking off ±65,000 workers for no clearly discernible reason.
Second, notice that the Census Bureau hired 60,000 people last month. Those workers (by definition) are temporary, and are a net cost to the economy, as they will not be adding marginal utility to any economic sector, the census being merely a social expenditure.
Those two items alone turn 530,000 new unemployed into 655,000.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/real-memo-out-of-bureau-of-lies-and.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShRPIcTdKuY
The A.M. Superbowl ad.
Short search on the goog resulted in this hit.
http://marriage.about.com/cs/sexualstatistics/a/sexstatistics.htm
“i’ll take rich and miserable 7 days of the week though.”
One of my more witty friends used to remark “We all know that money can’t buy happiness. But I would rather be rich and unhappy than poor and miserable.”
And for Gator:
Same friend would say “Marriage is a wonderful institution. But who wants to live in an institution?”
[170] zieba
With John’s rhino-like member, he considers it sexless if he doesn’t get some 8 or more times a night.
Time for another John story. We haven’t had one in awhile. Maybe about the 8 or more times John nailed Caroline Kennedy in the Hamptons, or something like that.
[186] nicholas
Okay, enough.
I know I started this in some fashion, but I’m gonna be Borat Obama and say “last.”
unless we get the aforerequested Johnscapade.
Actually I have a good story about the time I ate a shaved beaver in the gravel parking lot behind Ed’s Bay Pub at 4:30am in the morning or the time I was with John Gotti’s neice. But I gotta bolt for now as I am in the mood for a burger.
nom, as if the choice is ours.
im middle income, and overall just totally despondent.
zieba, balding too and one of the worst stock pickers you ever want to meet.
;^)
192 – you’re in good company –
U.S. Orders GMAC to Raise $9.1 Billion in Capital
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/07/AR2009050702777.html?nav=hcmoduletmv
To pull this off GMAC needs to hire John.
uggh,
john, i dont know whats more obnoxious, your stories or john gottis niece.
in either case, i think we’ve heard enough.
what recession?
“Upstate District Cuts 228 Teaching Jobs”
http://www.1010wins.com/Upstate-School-District-Cuts-228-Teaching-Position/4360102
SAS
Nom 95,
May i once again suggest my “alaskan proposal”. Maybe we could start a political platform based in it?
I met Buzz Aldren about 10 years ago at Kennedy Soace Center – he was quite the cranky old coot that day…
what the hell is twitter?
SAS
#146 veto It is decent. I do not think it needs to be bulldozed, and from the pictures appears to have been reasonably taken care of.
There is another one around the block l exact same house listed and rotting at 410K.
seeing is believing. im pleasantly shocked.
Were there any previous sales on it? Not really important but it would be interesting.
“what the hell is twitter?”
According to the Urban Dictionary…
1. To violently shake an erect pen*s, in an attempt to expel the last few drops of semen from the tip after an ejaculation.
2. Online social social networking site. It’s what everyone who is over 35 and trying to seem hip thinks that everyone under 25 is using. but they actually aren’t.
SAS,
Twitter is just like sending a text message. Except instead of sending it to one person you send it to all the people “following you”. So for example, you want to the board to know something about John so you would pick up your PC/iPhone and type “John is a legend in his own mind” and hit send. Then, instead of the message being sent to Kettle or Sean alone, everyone who is attached to your account gets it.
Think group email, mass email.
“what the hell is twitter?”
According to the Urban Dictionary…
1. To violently shake an erect pen*s, in an attempt to expel the last few drops of semen from the tip after an ejacul@tion.
2. Online social social networking site. It’s what everyone who is over 35 and trying to seem hip thinks that everyone under 25 is using. but they actually aren’t.
#187
To those who say that money cannot buy happiness, I suggest that you are shopping in the wrong places!
You can rent it!
It’s not really revolutionary. What’s new and hot is that the people who run twitter have the right to scan messages and read all these tweets. Using a large data mining system they can then mine for words which are being used most, or more recently and they can, in a way, hear what the twitter community is talking about. They can then sell this info to advertisers.
“They can then sell this info to advertisers.”
Zieba, does that make Twitter followers NitTwitts?
Hope you folks are prepared.
Rumors of disastrously below estimates FY 2008 tax receipts are beginning to circulate.
Keep a close eye on this.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/cfutures.html
Sean,
“Hope you folks are prepared.”
Wake me up when the public sector pensions are frozen.
BTW, what do commodity futures have to do with tax receipts?
Sean, thanks, what tax reciepts? commodities and taxes? i do not follow but i barely broke 1,000 on SAT so please understand.
btw GMAC is fine. it is a necessary utility business like fannie or freddie, govt will prop it up. in fact GMAC bonds trade in the 80s to 90s. Plus there is no common stock, GM and Cerebus owns it, they need to divest of it shortly and some new sucker will partner with the govt. I own those bonds too, just send me checks please.
GMAC is designated lender for the new Crysler, what a combination those two make.
The cost of protecting against a default by Citigroup (C:Citigroup Inc
News , chart , profile , more
Last: 4.11+0.30+7.87%
1:50pm 05/08/2009
Delayed quote dataAdd to portfolio
Analyst
Create alert Insider
C 4.11, +0.30, +7.9%) and Bank of America (BAC:bank of america corporation com
BAC 14.02, +0.51, +3.8%) dropped by more than a third this week, as news of the stress-test results leaked out, according to Credit Derivatives Research.
ME thinks Sean was looking at the commodities charts in a different tab and linked to it accidentally. Good thing he wasn’t surfing for porn.
Me thinks Sean was looking at the commodities charts in a different tab and linked to it accidentally. Good thing he wasn’t surfing for pron.
Geithner Bets U.S. Can Avoid Japan Trap on Banks
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a7ciX0gcQioY&refer=economy
“Still, the strategy carries risks for Geithner, 47, who served as a Treasury attaché to Japan from 1989 to 1991. If he’s wrong about the banks’ ability to weather the worst recession in at least half a century, the U.S. may just be postponing the day of reckoning when institutions will have to be shut down and taken over by the government.”
There is pron on the Internet?
Here is the article in one simple illustration.
http://stevebrodner.com/wp-content/gallery/editorial/geithner-craps-final1000.jpg
I still can’t figure out what to do on Linkedin. I guess it’s good that I can look up people I forgot about, and say – hey we know each other so let’s link.
But then what? There seems to be nothing else to do. You can put a lot of stuff and your whole resume there, but that just makes you look desperate for a job.
Some people make a passion of collecting 300+ connections, but that makes them seem like social butterflies who must not spend much time at work doing work, or spend too much time talking to other people.
Whenever I get a notification that someone has updated this or that on Linkedin, I assume that they are looking for work.
Anybody have a tip about having something actually good to do at Linkedin?
Veto, 3b 144
if you look at buying trends, the average home buyer seems to buy primarily based on the maximum monthly carrying cost they can afford. if you look at trends all the way back to the 70’s, you can see the same behavior.
What i take from that is that the average buyer isnt really looking at the overall financial implications of the individual purchase, but simply from the point of view that they have X $ /month they can spend. Back in the 70’s and through the 80’s people had something of a savings buffer. That is people where saving a consistent portion of their monthly income and so in theory cold increase their monthly expenses at the cost of their savings rate. It would appear that that very mechanism has been the case and in the last few years actually overshot and went into a negative savings rate.
This implies that taxes and home price must now become inversely proportional. The average buyer no longer has a monthly savings buffer to eat into. In fact for many buyers their monthly available income for housing expenses in slowly shrinking as incomes are beginning to shrink and rates on consumer debt are increasing as creditors try to mitigate risk by raising rates, which has the exact effect of increasing the default rate.
In short taxes and home price are inversely proportional when the buyer has no savings buffer from which to increase monthly expense and when credit markets are not artificially eased.
213 – ahh ha, u me thanks smeagle.
212 – John, i said it before, you are a junk bond genious and im sticking with the Citi bonds that you convinced me to pick up when you went on your infectious, mad max style accumulation binge when the s was hitting the fan. Your junk in the trunk will most likely outperform all of our equity portfolios put together this year if a 3rd leg down doesnt trigger bond holder haircuts accross the board. I still have my doubts about those citi bonds but the 8% coupon and 16% ytm helps me sleep soundly.
Anybody have a tip about having something actually good to do at Linkedin?
———————————-
Your connections determine if you are a grunt or not.
“linked in But then what?”
A.West
Thats it buddy, pure networking, no dancing around it. Business card collecting indeed.
Its meant to be professional so if you have a question about a private equity deal, you look up your buddy at bain and send him a quick email, etc.
If you want to get chatty with small talk, joke around, make fun of your buddies and trade family pics, Facebook is where its at. Thats why its good to have both.
But then its passe to get all serious and put your full resume up on facebook, so keep it mellow or you will freak out all of your neices and nephews… lol.
#218 kettle: Great alla round analysis as always. With reference to your point below, I m always amazed creditors do not see that, or do and do not care.
as creditors try to mitigate risk by raising rates, which has the exact effect of increasing the default rate.
A. West 217 – I have not worked very hard on my own LI profile, but can attest that it has been a pretty good tool for others. Our BIL is currently looking for work and he gotten a lot of solid job leads simply by updating his profile to indicate that he is looking for work.
He was also recruited for his last position (he was not looking for work at the time) by someone who saw his profile.
veto what cusip did you get of Citi? Thanks for playing the Mad Max Junk Bond Game with me. I even picked up some 40% YTM CIT and Ford bonds along the way, I get 100% of my money back in 2.5 years on those babies. After that it is gravy. On your citi bond At 16% you get all your money back at a little over six years. Plus each year that passes you can better aford a haircut, but remember the haircut is off the face value not what you paid.
For instance I got these bonds at 50 cents on the dollar, CITIGROUP INC BONDS 5.875% 02/22/2033. CUSIP 172967BU4 I can take a 50% haircut on a cash tender of the bonds and still come out ahead giving the yield to me is 11.75. The YTM is a lot higher as I get paid double what I paid at maturity.
My ford bond I got a bond tender off at 32 I turned down even though I bought at 19. People who bought at par were mad as heck, even worse some at par folk tendered at 32 and the bonds are now 50, they got screwed twice. This week Unisys offered me a tender on a bond I paid 35 for and I am holding on and bond is now 80. Buy low, never tender and keeping rolling your 16%, I do worry we may have a W here so for now keep your eye out for special situations and if we have another downturn jump on in. The water is fine.
If you go back in time and look at my bond picks and go to investinginbonds.com it is scary how far up they have gone. My Ford pick alone is up 190% in three months. I am backing off for now for a little while.
sastry (157)-
I say 425K to 440K. Not priced badly; already priced below assessment. Short sale potential really gives you no price leverage; the bank simply won’t let it go for below what their appraiser/BPO guy tells them is market.
Nice street.
Clot… thanks. We may see it soon. We have one other thing in mind, and if that one is also a bit beyond our range, we will seriously consider this one. The street is nice. Houses are good (not very fancy, but may be that is a good thing in a way).
S
plume (188)-
I wouldn’t do Caroline Kennedy if you held me at gunpoint.
Clot or Grim or others-
Do you know the status of mls 2595418? Was it sold in foreclosure? I noticed a lis pendens filed in the records.
Clot that is why you will never be rich. I would do something like that for a KFC coupon.
173034GVS citicorp 2011 subs, i bought early on a dip around 90 thinking that the pending tarp announcement would nationalize the banks and sure them up but it never happened so i got stuck clipping coupons as they sunk down to 70. They are back up now and i dont mind clipping coupons on 10% of my portfolio.
190% on the Ford bonds is impressive. to think that i feel like the man for being up 20% on the common stock is humbling.
The one thing i can say is that you had full disclosure on your purchases when world was ending and this whole board thought you were losing it. I have many a friend who claim winning trades after the fact, now that market rallied 30% they somehow all went bottom picking without telling anyone at trough of dow, yeah right. Not you though. You took the heat, held your strategy and its panning out. i give you that.
Will even be more impressed if you see maturity. and hope you do.
veto (219)-
John’s 3rd leg is registered as a lethal weapon in NJ.
Allegedly.
“Your junk in the trunk will most likely outperform all of our equity portfolios put together this year if a 3rd leg down doesnt trigger bond holder haircuts accross the board. I still have my doubts about those citi bonds but the 8% coupon and 16% ytm helps me sleep soundly.”
John (229)-
Buck-tooth bitch is nasty.
I am already sorry I said that.
Enough of the blue material for me.
veto (219)-
I recall this was said a few times to Michael Milken, too. How’d that work out?
“John, i said it before, you are a junk bond genious…”
re: #209 – veto – At some point possibly soon our Trading Partners will come to believe they are not getting paid.
That is going to be reflected in a couple different ways but the most glaringly it will be commodities.
For example recently there is a rumor that a very large order of soybeans canceled, and that order was canceled to punish us.
The Tax Receipts are rumored to be way down as well, which means we will be paying for purchases with money monetized out of thin air not even backed by taxing.
There is a tipping point our there, and there are some of us tin foil hat wearing armchair economists like me who think it won’t be too long now.
John (224)-
Lookout for that plugged-in toaster next to the pool.
“Buy low, never tender and keeping rolling your 16%, I do worry we may have a W here so for now keep your eye out for special situations and if we have another downturn jump on in. The water is fine.”
afe (228)-
Temporarily off the market.
Veto thanks now I am sure to blow up, anyhow bought this one this morning for fun. Last week I bought 15K or fifth third at 57 on a dollar. My days are coming to an end! When you are buying stuff at 30-50 cents on a dollar it is scary how big the face value looks!
Status Filled at $35.85
Bond CUSIP 55262CAJ9
Description MBIA INC BONDS 5.700% 12/01/2034 MAKE WHOLE
Action Buy
Quantity 10,000.00
sEAN,
i AGREE WE ARE LIVING ON BORROW TIME AT THIS POINT WE REALLY ONLY DIFFER IN THE LITTLE DETAILS.
opps, caps off :(
re #208 – STU I will be the first to quote South Park.
“….and it’s gone!”
We will find out, but at least I still have my corner office with a waterview and some of my hair.
Clotpoll says:
May 8, 2009 at 2:41 pm
veto (219)-
I recall this was said a few times to Michael Milken, too. How’d that work out?
“John, i said it before, you are a junk bond genious…”
vodka (239)-
Perhaps some Fifth Third junk bonds can take the edge off for you?
Sorry, clot,
that line of blow might have been overkill. a special K will calm me right down thought ;)
Sean, i hate it when you guys starting talking like this… All of the sudden my money market has more risk than a bag of gold coins sitting next to a loaded colt 45. what’s the world coming to? I like the one about the dreadful deflationary spiral so much more.
I dont know, maybe in fifty years our chinese trading partners can shoe us away like a fly but we are still big enough to bring the whole system down if we dont get our way. It will take decades to unwind our influence. In the meantime we are stuck with each other.
Reminds me of a funny Churchill quote, when his secretary of 40 years told him “if i were your wife, i would put arsenic in your cofee”. he replies, “if you were my wife i would surely drink it”.
Veto,
actually an inflationary depression ignited from a rapid deflation is much worse then just a 1930’s style inflationary depression.
its sort of like when the congolese rebels ask if you want short sleeves or long sleeves. You are screwed either way, but perhaps less screwed by taking long sleeves.
It was Lady Nancy Astor
John, my only concern is asset allocation. either you have one serious heap for 401k or you are big time overweight junk bank debt.
Seriously though, in percentage terms, what percent of your portfolio is exposed to bank debt?
From Reuters; US to give GMAC ‘substantial’ support.
thanks clot!
veto (248)-
The answer to that is gonna be a classic. I can feel it.
clot, lol. i almost dont want to know.
“Dear Bill:
By copy of this letter to Chairman Bernanke, I hereby resign as a Class C Director and Chairman of the Board of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, effective immediately. ”
Stephen has been a busy boy lately, buying up Goldman stock since December.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/05/steve-friedman-resigns-as-chairman-of.html
251:
hahahahah….waaait for it…
“closes a $50 million deficit by trimming about 250 jobs”
What, they never heard of a tax increase? That board would never make it in NJ.
Stu,
I guess one better be careful if someone asks if they can twitter them.
http://curbed.com/uploads/2009_5_8_3cw.jpg
Veto – I like one splenda in my coffee, and I am simply hedging my bets.
I am not predicting this (see link below), so put down the colt 45.
http://moinansari.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/mad_max.jpg?w=494&h=428
Ohh, that is good stuff. I prefer waterworld though since there is no way that the ice caps will survive the massive debt collapse/china nuclear option. that and 1 billion chinamen will eventually cause too much body heat for the atmosphere to bear.
Clot, PGC, finished watching that Chelsea BARCA game last night, whoa man.
At face value I am 665K long in bonds. Though I bought a lot of stuff at 20-50 cents on a dollar. I have more positions than a high priced call girl. Average coupon is around 6% of that face amount so we are talking 45K interest income to roll. Since I started accumulating like a mad man around the time of Lehman’s fall I have had zero defaults. Speaking of Milken I was in the room when he did not meet net cap requirements as the auditor to document the disconnecting of his drexels trading link and to to do the demand of collateral from his linked accounts. Boy when things go bad they go bad.
zieba (253)-
Dude just made 2mm on his recent GS purchases. How magananimous that he quit now.
Puhleeze. Somebody should be pulling his toenails out right now.
The daylight bank robbery continues…
Shore 256 – I think the “young” and “hip” actually say “tweet”.
__Wow__
http://popwatch.ew.com/popwatch/2009/05/oprahs-kfc-free.html?iid=top25-Oprah%27s+KFC+free-for-all+sparks+civil+rights+era-style+protest.+Wonderful.
I’m not sure what’s more disturbing:
– The lengths people will go through for a coupon for free “chicken”
– The massive freak out over this
– The fact that people will “sit in” over this but not the borderline criminal actions of our government
– The comments that are at the bottom of the story
Who’s brave enough to buy SRS today?
veto (259)-
Hard to believe officiating that bad in a CL semifinal. The referee ruined the game.
Chelsea have no argument, because the ref screwed Barca just as bad. Abidal did nothing to get himself sent off.
John (260)-
He was already facing RICO charges at that point, right?
Talk about a losing streak.
veto that says:
Yes I have way too much, it is like giving me a six pack of beer and a can of pringles, I can’t stop. The bonds are not in my 401K account, they are in my plain old brokerage account.
May 8, 2009 at 2:57 pm
John, my only concern is asset allocation. either you have one serious heap for 401k or you are big time overweight junk bank debt.
Seriously though, in percentage terms, what percent of your portfolio is exposed to bank debt?
Frank (264)-
Little late with the question there.
Got it with a 1-handle, too.
“Who’s brave enough to buy SRS today?”
First time, moc.
[258] sean
“put down the colt 45”
Why? Got something stronger, like Thunderbird?
Forgot my disclaimer:
Frank is a pea-brained turdburglar.
john, its hard to determine the asset allocation without percentages. if your total portfolio is $2 million, you are probably overweight in Junk debt at 33%, no? Also, considering age, if you’re over 45-50, you might want to take that down to at least 20% maybe??? especially since you are up.
just a suggestion but you obviously know more about it than me or my portfolio would be the one thats up 60% ytd.
Frank made a killing in the market since March, that is what matters to all the SRS bagholders.
“Frank made a killing in the market since March”
Now down 70% from 10/07.
#274,
I cashed out in 8/2008 pal.
Veto thanks for the intervention. Trouble is half my junk is technically investment grade, even citi and aig is still investment grade. Monday I will try to unwind some towards the open. It is late in the day on a Friday and market is illiquid, plus prices really changed today so I want Monday’s statement with Friday’s COB. I also went a little crazy in march with insurance and bought, HIG, XL and CNA bonds that popped a lot, considering they did not even pass a stress test I might unload that stuff.
Frank – you didn’t cash out of you house bag holder.
“I cashed out in 8/2008.”
Frank,
Less of a debit is not cashing out.
Is thhe grill still on? I would like a Burger.
silera says:
May 8, 2009 at 11:50 am
I was more of a 7b type.
Stu is more the Katz deli type….
I once hung out with Curt Smith of Tears for Fears at the bar in the Mercury Lounge. I started hanging out at the Bank, but I was 25, and felt like an old man at that point.
Isn’t 7b where Billy Idol was busted for buying weed?
cmon now john, you know ratings are irrelevant. Citi aint invest grade nothing lets just agree on that one. I realize you know muni sector but unanimous consensus is that the monoline business model is shot, probably gone forever except for the niche players.
Be careful though. knowing when to sell is more important then when to buy. storm clouds ahead. Dont be greedy. all that stuff.
Thanks for teaching me a thing or two.
Katz Deli? I once hung out with Cortney Love at the Ludlow bar.
chi (279)-
10th St Lounge?
Night in, night out…the hottest girls in NYC back in the early ’90s.
Clot’s routine, circa 1992:
1. Work.
2. Hang out 10th St Lounge.
3. Blue Ribbon.
4. Sunrise.
5. Rinse and repeat.
John says:
May 8, 2009 at 12:45 pm
Actually I have a good story about the time I ate a shaved beaver in the gravel parking lot behind Ed’s Bay Pub at 4:30am in the morning or the time I was with John Gotti’s neice. But I gotta bolt for now as I am in the mood for a burger.
OMG!
“Actually I have a good story about the time I ate a shaved beaver in the gravel parking lot behind Ed’s Bay Pub at 4:30am in the morning”
Oregon State mascot?
Clotpoll says:
May 8, 2009 at 3:57 pm
chi (279)- 10th St Lounge?
Was that place 1/2 a floor below street level between A & 1st, north side of the street?
I hung out one night in the early 90s with Quniten Tarintino, Pat Reilly, John Travolta, Lee Majors, Evandor Hollyfield and that boxer with the crazy eye, whats his name. Around 3:30 am the China Club lets a reporter take a picture and damm it all I got in the picture was my elbow. Pat Reilly actually goes to bar gets his own beers and buys rounds, Evander was super cool to hang with and guess what no suprise Quniten and Travolta are just as big jerks off screen as on. Lee was kinda quiet but he has got some bionic stuff going on so you know the girls were all wondering about that.
“- I think the young and hip actually say tweet.”
I am neither.
Ok, Veto first thing Monday I will get bids on these blue ribbon specials I picked up the last few months and see what I can offload.
CABLEVISION SYS CORP SR NT 8.00000% 04/15/2012
AMERIPRISE FINL INC SR NT 5.35000% 11/15/2010 (Margin)
CITIGROUP FDG INC RETAIL MTNS 6.00000% 06/22/2037
FIFTH THIRD BANCORP SB NT 4.50000% 06/01/2018
INDEPENDENCE CMNTY BK CORP 4.90000% 09/23/2010 SR NT
NATIONAL CITY CORP SUB NT 6.87500% 05/15/2019
M&I MARSHALL & ILSLEY BK MTNBE 5.00000% 01/17/2017
GENWORTH GLOBAL FDG TRS 5.37500% 09/15/2011 FR
FORD MTR CO DEL GLBL SEC 7.450% 07/16/2031
GENERAL MTRS ACCEP CORP 5.10000% 09/15/2009
CIT GROUP INC INTERNOTES BOOK 7.60000% 02/15/2013
HARTFORD LIFE INC DEB 7.65000% 06/15/2027
Silera
7B – We used to call it Vazaks back in the early 80s, because their was an ad on the building above it for a catering hall (I think).
I can still hear Ballroom Blitz on the jukebox. I was in 7B the night Al Gore became President. Man, I must have gotten really drunk.
John,
Why don’t you wait until June 1st for this one.
GENERAL MTRS ACCEP CORP 5.10000% 09/15/2009
ahBoxers! – Back in 93 I was in some joint in the city working the magic with a very fine woman. In walks Tommy Morrison, and faster than I could say “Hey There is Tommy Morrison” and turn around she was already gone and by his side, it was like she teleported.
I have never seen chick magnet boxer like that guy before. Too bad he went to the dark side with drugs.
I was in High School in the early 90’s. When I’d be home from school on break I was big into the club scene- not the drugs, just loved to dance. Growing up downtown was like traveling the world before I was 20, pretty amazing.
As evident in the posts, it didn’t take much to hang out with nobodies or celebrities and have a great time.
The FDIC is opening an east coast satellite office.
….erm, that’s a good thing, right?
And here is my gift to you all, small token of appreciation. a comparison of % decline from peak for NY Metro Case Shiller 80s bubble vs the 2006 bubble. Now i cant say i didnt get any work done this week. Enjoy!
http://tinyurl.com/o4jl6m
And of course will add to the monthly cs graphs.
re: #293 Tosh – re: #FDIC They have 19 months to spend 500 Billion, might be a fun place to work if they give you a badge and a convertible to go along with the money.
re #292 Silera – first NYC club I was ever in was Studio 54 and I was 16 at the time.
It is GMAC not GM. That is the bond me and bill gross refused to tender, GMAC is a bank to big to fail.
make money says:
May 8, 2009 at 4:17 pm
John,
Why don’t you wait until June 1st for this one.
GENERAL MTRS ACCEP CORP 5.10000% 09/15/2009
i think you will be happy you did that John, and in the end its risk management so there should be no regrets if they shoot up to par by year end.
make, shouldn’t really matter if he sells post or pre coupon as market price should account for that.
I think my first club was the Kit Kat Club when I was 14. You name a club and I was there, in my Unique’s purchased catholic uniform skirt and platforms.
My Mom must have had a direct line to God for all the praying she did for us.
!!!!!
!300!
!!!!!
Silera,
good memories at LIFE in village on the BEN JONES guest list, no lines free drink all night for years. That was a great connect, never even met Ben Jones but apparently they didnt know that or care.
Ok have you been to Milk Club, Vault, area, danceteria, limelight, chinaclub?
is ben jones like a perry party?
#294
great chart. if we follow the last cycle, looks like most of nominal decline will be done by the end of 2010 with rest of gains taken care of by inflation in a slow grind over next 5 yrs.
Veto,
Was life on 5th Avenue? Like on the corner in a white building below 14th street?
I don’t know who Ben Jones was but if saying his name meant no line and drinks all night, then I say he’s a saint.
never heard of perry party but its a guest list so you skip the lines and get the vip rooms where they send all the good looking girls.
Limelight and china club were pretty bad, i put them up there with b&t favorites, webster hall and sound factory. cant put your drink down for a ny second without getting mickey’d.
John says:
Ok have you been to Milk Club, Vault, area, danceteria, limelight, chinaclub?
All but Milk Club, all before I was 18.
Nom-
Saw this quote from an article about Dom DiMaggio and really thought it was a good one for a Dad (with the new one making twice as fun)
Emily Colette DiMaggio of Wayland said her father “was such a great teacher of how to live a life, and to love and pass it on. He created a loving family and just gave us so much. We were just lucky.”
She recalled that in Wellesley, neighborhood children flocked to the DiMaggio house because there always was extra equipment for games. One day when the children couldn’t find a ball, she said, they went into Mr. DiMaggio’s study and borrowed one covered with signatures — a pennant ball, perhaps.
Upon arriving home in the evening, Mr. DiMaggio spied the ball, now sporting grass stains and smudged names, and asked, “What is this?”
“We told him we used it for the neighborhood ballgame with the kids,” his daughter said. “We were waiting for the reaction, and he said, ‘So, did you win?’ That’s who he was, an incredible dad.”
Here’s the link to the article:
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2009/05/family_dimaggio.html
No love the The Gas Station or Suicide Hall?
Skep, that sounds about right to me.
I guess you know that the returns on the chart are adjusted for inflation. Thats why it shows us being down 26% from peak right now when nominal CS shows us down 15% from peak.
Recognition to Kettle on the cs inflation adjustment calcs, that was our collaboration record. Our next album will tell you with 96% certainty where NY Metor prices will be in the next three years. (yeah right)
Nom and Nom pounders-
Saw this DIY city dwellers going back to the land (and future Nompound dwellers)
Country Wisdom and Know How
http://www.kk.org/cooltools/archives/003681.php#comments
cheap wine of the week. found this near me for $10.99.
http://www.wine.com/V6/Louis-Martini-Sonoma-Cabernet-Sauvignon-2006/wine/97407/detail.aspx
That was a scene I wasn’t really into. I don’t have cool stories to tell about the Bowery.
I was skeeved by all the drug use down there. This was 15-20 years ago though. I remember not being scared of a lot of things, but the Bowery was one of my least favorite streets to be on past dark.
Any suggestions for “classy” and “nice” restaurants in the Edison, NJ area?
all of you disco dancers may prefer redbull and ciroc, however
Veto’s chart should make anyone waiting on the sidelines thrilled.
[312] skep
So what store is “near you”?
No worries — I won’t clear it out.
John says:
May 8, 2009 at 4:15 pm
Ok, Veto first thing Monday I will get bids on these blue ribbon specials I picked up the last few months and see what I can offload.
CABLEVISION SYS CORP SR NT 8.00000% 04/15/2012
AMERIPRISE FINL INC SR NT 5.35000% 11/15/2010 (Margin)
CITIGROUP FDG INC RETAIL MTNS 6.00000% 06/22/2037
FIFTH THIRD BANCORP SB NT 4.50000% 06/01/2018
INDEPENDENCE CMNTY BK CORP 4.90000% 09/23/2010 SR NT
NATIONAL CITY CORP SUB NT 6.87500% 05/15/2019
M&I MARSHALL & ILSLEY BK MTNBE 5.00000% 01/17/2017
GENWORTH GLOBAL FDG TRS 5.37500% 09/15/2011 FR
FORD MTR CO DEL GLBL SEC 7.450% 07/16/2031
GENERAL MTRS ACCEP CORP 5.10000% 09/15/2009
CIT GROUP INC INTERNOTES BOOK 7.60000% 02/15/2013
HARTFORD LIFE INC DEB 7.65000% 06/15/2027
JJ: I went out this afternoon to look for inventory and I was shocked at how much the spreads tightned. I wasn’t sure if it was the stress test or the good weather so people took off the afternoon. I said f- it and took a pass until next week. Looks like an interim point to offload your bullsh!t trades…..
#313 – I was skeeved by all the drug use down there
Rightfully so. The first time I was down there I was terrified and fascinated at the same time (I was about 14 or so).
There was another “club” on Ave A, 99A or 97A, that people I hung with went to sometimes.
Other than that it was L’Amours & City Gardens.
chi (285)-
Street level; very minimal, very low-key.
#317 I am in CT, but this stuff doesn’t seem to be in short supply so I would think it shouldn’t be hard to find at a decent price.
Silera says:
May 8, 2009 at 4:49 pm
John says:
Ok have you been to Milk Club, Vault, area, danceteria, limelight, chinaclub?
All but Milk Club, all before I was 18.
sil: you have to be really careful…most of this stuff was just plain old skanky…..I remember waiting in 5 degrees to get into the Palladium when I was 17. Finally got it and it sucked. So we bailed and walked next store to Jullian’s Billiards….Bono and the Edge were there, but I thought U2 were a%%holes so I didn’t care…I was such a jerkweed when I was younger…
here it is for $10.95
http://www.napacabs.com/Louis-M-Martini-2006-Cabernet-Sauvignon-Sonoma-County-P4969.aspx
Chi- I know. I’m amazed nothing ever happened to us. Again, my big thing was the dancing scene. I got to come home from boarding school in the boonies and really hit up every club I could.
I consider those risky nights my personal Alaska survival mission.
[323] skep
Crap. CT is a bit too far for me. Best price in NJ I found is $13. Lotsa neg reviews too, so I don’t know that I would ramp up much of this.
[308] hawk
“One day when the children couldn’t find a ball, she said, they went into Mr. DiMaggio’s study and borrowed one covered with signatures — a pennant ball, perhaps.”
Great story. I wonder if that episode was the inspiration for “The Sandlot”?
Veto,
Can I post 294 up on the main page?
Great graph.
Nom– I don’t think the cab is mind boggling, but it is definitely good for a sub $15 bottle. But then again there are a lot of good sub-$15 bottles out there
Disco? Disco! Egads. Give me Sabbath any day — and no polyester required.
Since this is Friday and talk has devolved to music:
The other day we were talking guitars. After taking recomendations and listening to the guitars in person, I think I am going to go with the Martin. The Fishman electronics are good and the tone was just richer than the Taks. That said, I may go for a 12-string t
Tak in the autumn.
Back in the 70s, the disco people down the Shore tended to be real jerks, and the ones who descended on Seaside and Belmar were a magnitude worse.
The heads tripping on acid listening to Pink Floyd, or smoking weed listening to more energetic stuff were far nicer people to be around.
Veto,
ye nice graph.
SAS
sure grim, of course, feel free to post.
great job on that graph.
It reminds me of a ski slope, so can we have some stick men skiing down it?
Gator [262],
say “tweet”
Yeah, well I say “twit”, because that’s more appropriate. Who is narcissistic enough to think others care about your random thoughts as you wander round town?
#331,
Yes, buy a Martin. Support the Lehigh Valley economy.
#314 Alap
Any suggestions for “classy” and “nice” restaurants in the Edison, NJ area?
If you mean a place with a dress code I can’t help you there.
Kimchi Hana in Middlesex Mall off 529 has great Korean food. I’m usually the only non Asian there.
There’s another pretty good Korean restaurant on Rt 1 South. Can’t rememember the name. It’s on Rt 1 south of Old Post Road.
Penang’s has great Malaysian food.
i don’t get this twitter or facebook?
seem kind of silly to me.
linkedin, well, that may have some more validity, but its artifical connections.
you want to make good connections better off at the golf course, the bar stool, or the glitter room at your local strip joint.
SAS
or a good wine taste event always works.
SAS
during the early 80s, we made connections with elements in Moscow.
Vodka, and those SOBs liked Jack Daniels & Wild Turkey.
SAS
BklynHawk… Re comps nearby for Brandywine Rise place.
It is placed just a bit below the assessed price and the purchase price was 445k in 2003.
It has a public sewer, but has a well. Is it difficult to move from well water to public water? I am a total newbie!
S
S
interesting little story
“Foreclosure looms for McAfee estate”
http://www.gazette.com/articles/property-53019-estate-one.html
SAS
Alap,
There are a few nice places in New Brunswick. Just a few miles drive, depending on which part of Edison you are from.
S
Alap,
Makeda on George St in New Brunswick is a great African place.
Dont want to steal any of Veto’s thunder. He did a great job on the chart. Any contribution i may have had was minimal at best.
way to go veto
I second makeda!
Don’t try to act like this is a negative. It’s a positive for two reasons: 1) they shouldn’t be withdrawing their retirement money in the first place and 2) buy and hold works. It’s an absolute shame that someone has to force these people to leave this money alone and to invest over the long term like they’re supposed to.
This should also be done for real estate to eliminate people attempting to run for the exits all at once. Can you imagine some home sellers being forced not to sell right now. It would eliminate panic selling and allow those with acceptable reasons to sell in a market that has some price supports!
Sean says:
May 8, 2009 at 10:32 am
Some 401k’s are now rejecting redemption requests or giving the investors illiquid collateral-pool holdings instead of cash.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/401k-funds-putting-locks-on-your-cash.aspx?page=1
interesting turn of events (but not too much of a surprize):
“Chavez seizes oil service firms”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8041366.stm
SAS
“buy and hold works.”
50.5,
I’m getting into that sell and fold state of mind.
tard (348)-
Is your last name Mussolini?
Another one:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2009199152_webwestsound08.html
Bremerton-based Westsound Bank was seized late this afternoon by state and federal regulators, citing the bank’s “severe asset problems, significant losses and inadequate capital.”
sastry (342)-
If you have a good well, why would you ever want public water?
mik (352)-
Sure that wasn’t C?
“severe asset problems, significant losses and inadequate capital.”
Oops, almost forgot…C’s too big to fail.
430 more points til 9K
I better start practicing how to click the mouse faster :)
sl
BC,
Unlike Clod, you’re not a wild eyed radical with a sniveling dog, but you do share one attribute with him–negativity. Selling and folding IS NOT what you should be doing now. Besides being unpatriotic, it serves to upend the markets.
If I had my way, you’d be forced out of gold and into the financials (B of A, Citi and Wells Fargo). You’d also be forced into buying a house with an 125% LTV mortgage and I’d add a couple of maxed out credit cards. Bet your tune would change then–you’d be as invested as I am in seeing these markets recover.
BC Bob says:
May 8, 2009 at 10:06 pm
“buy and hold works.”
50.5,
I’m getting into that sell and fold state of mind.
Clot,
Oh, C is good, well capitalized bank by the gubmint. It cannot fall
sas says:
May 8, 2009 at 8:21 pm
during the early 80s, we made connections with elements in Moscow.
Vodka, and those SOBs liked Jack Daniels & Wild Turkey.SAS
sas: I still have a bottle of Pepsi I bought in a Beriozka shop in 1986. We called it NENCH because that it how Pepsi was appeared on the bottle in cyrillic characters. Out guide never understood why we called the restaurants PECTOPAH….
353 Clot…
As I said, I’m a newbie. The well water in India is usually pretty bad municipal water very good. That said, here I presume there are purification units, etc.
If it’s not an issue, even better.
BTW, there is a “Gandhi” that lives on that street!
S
I’ll third Makeda.
Alap,
In case you are Indian (name sounds a bit like it, but I could be wrong)… The Makeda food is very south indianish. Crepes with set of veg or meat dishes.
S
sastry (359)-
Most American municipal water is flouridated swill, with lots of little “floaters” adding to a bluish- and already-murky- appearance . MTBE is also an annoying little problem in many public water supplies.
Once MTBE is in an aquifer or well, there is no remedy. It does have a pleasant yellowish tint, and a refreshing, Riesling-like aroma, though. :)
If you have gallstones, MTBE can dissolve them. Of course, MTBE will also kill you in the process.
Bonus!
veto that says:
May 7, 2009 at 8:49 pm
Pat, work in princeton. probably should be considering PA. Half my office lives there and commutes and they are all trying to convince me to look there too.
but im a NJ guy and family is here. PA is a little too quiet for me, our cousins lived in PA for years. If im doing that, i would just rather move to TX where wife is from, and buy a 4br mcmansion for $200k.
I also like being closer to jersey shore in summer. all stupid reasons i know but i just dont like pa that much i guess. thanks for suggestion though. will keep thinking about it.
what part of the shore? bucks county’s a short drive from the shore. less than 2 hrs to some real nice parts. that probably is a much closer drive than taking the GSP from bergen county …
353: RE Sastry
Municipal water? Come on, grow up for Christ sake. It’s probably better in terms of coli (the reason I didn’t get UV for my RO system), but it contains the same waste your well has plus you have tons of chlorine which again you have to filter on
i love this place! sure nj is expensive, but we’re 1 hour from nyc, philly, Atlantic City. got an awesome beach, even though we pay lots to go sit on it.
just got back from the city, springtime and short skirts and some good scotch.
Life is good.
I mentioned Tax receipts earlier today.
Well….
California state personal income taxes are down 43% in Apr 2009 vs Apr 2008.
http://sco.ca.gov/Press-Releases/2009/05-09summary.pdf
Load up on something that is real folks.
Sean et all
The following is a comparison of the past 4 recession compared to the current one.
the projection assumes that the job market bottoms out this summer.
http://www.scribd.com/full/15105340?access_key=key-1f3571op9ly151vi9lnj
chart is based on YOY growth
9:30 and no new posts?
come on i know some of you have kids and arent still in bed ;)
I think a big part of that “stability” is to cover the cost of public education. I’d imagine businesses just pass the tax on to customers, and I don’t think renters (at least right now) are covering nearly as much on a “per dwelling” basis..replica rolex submariner