Widespread price declines across NJ, no recovery in sight.

From the National Association of Realtors:

2009 Q1 Metropolitan Area Single Family Prices

Year over Year Single Family Price Changes (By MSA)
United States -13.8% (for reference)
Northeastern US -15.9% (for reference)
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ -8.0%
Atlantic City, NJ -21.0%
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA -16.0%
New York-Wayne-White Plains, NY-NJ -12.8%
NY: Edison, NJ -11.3%
NY: Nassau-Suffolk, NY -18.6%
NY: Newark-Union, NJ-PA -12.5%
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-ME -6.7%
Trenton-Ewing, NJ -12.4%

2009 Q1 Metropolitan Area Condo Prices

Year over Year Condo Price Changes (By MSA)
United States -20.2% (for reference)
Northeastern US -11.9% (for reference)
New York-Wayne-White Plains, NY-NJ -15.4%
NY: Edison, NJ -11.4%
NY: Nassau-Suffolk, NY -8.1%
NY: Newark-Union, NJ-PA -14.7%
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-ME -2.8%
Trenton-Ewing, NJ -7.9%

2009 Q1 Total Sales: Single-Family, Condos, Co-ops

Year over Year Total Sales (By State)
United States -6.8% (for reference)
Northeastern US -20.1% (for reference)
New Jersey -18.7%
New York -23.1%
Pennsylvania -18.8%

From the Record:

Home prices drop in North Jersey in 1Q

Home prices dropped almost 13 percent in the New York metropolitan area, which includes North Jersey, in the first quarter of 2009 from the same period a year ago, the National Association of Realtors said today.

According to the real estate trade group, home prices in the area that includes Bergen, Passaic and Hudson counties, as well as New York City, fell to $429,900, down from $492,800 a year earlier.

And the volume of home sales in New Jersey plummeted 18.7 percent from the first quarter of 2008. Sales were running at a a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 93,400 in the first quarter of 2009 — about half the 180,000-plus annual sales during the housing boom in 2004 and 2005.

From Reuters:

US 1st qtr median home prices slide from year ago

The National Association of realtors said on Tuesday that home prices dropped in 134 out of 152 metro areas on a year-over-year basis during the first quarter of this year.

The national median price for an existing single-family home was $169,000, some 13.8 percent below the price in the first quarter of 2008. The median is the half-way point, with half the prices above and half below this level.

The realtors’ lobby group said foreclosures and short sales were keeping prices down.

“Many buyers sought deeply discounted distressed sales — foreclosures and short sales — which accounted for nearly half of transactions in the first quarter and weighed down median prices in most markets,” the realtors said.

From Bloomberg:

Home Prices in U.S. Drop Most on Record in Quarter

Home prices in the U.S. dropped the most on record in the first quarter from a year earlier, led by California and Florida, as banks sold foreclosed properties.

The median price fell 14 percent to $169,000, the National Association of Realtors said today. Prices dropped in 134 of 152 metropolitan areas, with the deepest declines in Cape Coral and Ft. Myers, Florida, followed by San Francisco and San Jose.

“There are a lot of forces pushing the market in different directions,” said Brian Bethune, economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “We’ve seen huge improvements in affordability, not only in prices but also in terms of mortgage rates below 5 percent, but what’s pushing down those prices is foreclosures and job losses.”

From the Wall Street Journal:

U.S. Median House Price Declines 14%

The median price for a single-family house fell 14% to $169,000 in the first quarter from a year earlier, the National Association of Realtors reported.

The trade group said first-time home buyers accounted for half of all purchases in the quarter, and many of them zeroed in on foreclosed homes. That dragged down the median, the Realtors said.

The median price for the latest quarter is down 26% from a peak of $227,600 in the third quarter of 2005. The latest median price was down from a year earlier in 134 of the 152 metro areas included in the survey.

Sales of single-family homes and condominiums declined 6.8% from a year earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.6 million units. But sales were up sharply in some areas hardest hit by the housing bust, largely because bargain hunters were out in force. States with big sales increases from the depressed levels of a year before included Nevada (up 117%), California (81%) and Arizona (50%) and Florida (25%).

Rising unemployment and fears of more job losses are deterring many potential buyers. But others are encouraged by the lowest mortgage rates since the 1950s. In addition, the U.S. government is offering tax credits for certain home buyers before Dec. 1.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

272 Responses to Widespread price declines across NJ, no recovery in sight.

  1. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    N.J. real estate decline tightens state and county budgets

    The real estate downturn is hitting government coffers, wiping out nearly $100 million in real estate transfer taxes in 2008 and leaving gaping holes in state and county budgets. Frustrated county officials are struggling to meet county needs while anticipating continued declines in transfer taxes over the next few years.

    “From a public sector standpoint, it’s just the worst I’ve ever seen it,” Middlesex County Administrator John Pulomena said.

    Jefferey Otteau, president of the Otteau Valuation Group, which tracks the New Jersey real estate market, said the current losses are real-time indicators of a market gone sour. And, he said, because property taxes often lag behind the market a year or more, government revenues will worsen in the coming years.

    Counties draw funds from real estate in three ways: property taxes based on assessed value, fees drawn from the recording of new deeds, and transfer taxes levied when properties are bought and sold.

    The state and counties charge a tax of roughly 1 percent of the sale price of a given property. The sale of a $500,000 home in Somerset, for example, yields about $4,200 in transfer taxes, roughly 80 percent going to the state and the balance to the county. In addition, county clerks charge $40 for the first page and $10 for each additional page of mortgages and deeds recorded.

    The losses in real estate transfer taxes the state suffered in 2008 contributed to shortfalls in state and county budgets. At the county level, transfer taxes and recording fees make up between 2 percent and 4 percent of revenues. While they are a small percentage of the county budget they have been counted on as consistent revenue, until this past year.

  2. Revelations says:



  3. asyn says:

    Great! keep dropping!

  4. zieba says:

    I’m pissed.

    The one time I got first, Grim edited my “frist” within minutes.

  5. veto that says:

    awesome, if prices go to zero im buying this summer for sure.

  6. reinvestor101 says:

    asyn says:
    May 12, 2009 at 8:25 pm
    Great! keep dropping!

    It’s this sort of attitude that really hurts real estate markets.

    Let’s get something straight. I’m not giving my house away for nothing. If you expect to buy my house, you will pay the right price. My house is very nice and people will want it,so they’ll be holding the ice follies in hell, the day I settle for less than what I deserve. If I have to take it off the market until the stinking buyers get some sense of value, I’ll do that, but I’ll be damned if I going to get lowballed into some damn financial purgatory by some vulture.

  7. Firestormik says:

    50.5: Wrong! You won’t be damned, you’ll go straight to the hell :)
    Can I get on your famous list now? :)

  8. reinvestor101 says:

    196- Clodhopper

    Clotpoll says:

    May 12, 2009 at 2:31 pm
    plume (184)-

    Don’t sweat it. You’re probably well-established on several watchlists already.

    I’m pretty sure I am.

    You should be one every damn watch list they have plus some. You’re a malcontent with dangerous and subversive ideas. They really need to move you from watch lists to the detention lists. Subjecting you to a few enhanced interrogation techniques might also be in order; no telling what you know that might avert further disruption to the economy.

  9. reinvestor101 says:

    What the hell? No, the damn list is too good for you. That’s only for those who exhibit some redemptive qualities that will allow them to exit the list at some point.

    People like you and Clodhopper are deadenders with no redemptive qualities whatsoever and need to be moved directly to some damn waterboarding.

    Bit off more than you could chew didn’t you? Let that be a lesson to anyone else who dares to get cute like Fire here.

    Firestormik says:
    May 12, 2009 at 9:12 pm
    50.5: Wrong! You won’t be damned, you’ll go straight to the hell :)
    Can I get on your famous list now? :)

  10. Seneca says:

    I can’t believe so many people mock American Idol but apparently, everyone is so busy watching that show, they have no time to post meaningful comments about the pending recovery in the RE market. For shame!

  11. reinvestor101 says:

    266-yikes says:
    May 12, 2009 at 5:47 pm
    housing rebound my ass:

    Sir, a housing rebound has absolutely to do with your derriere and I find it highly irregular that you’d even suggest that.

    Look, we all realize that people have their fetishes, but you’re way the hell out of line here. I believe you owe this damn board an apology. We follow the kiss and don’t tell policy here and we really don’t want to know about this sort of thing.

  12. Firestormik says:

    50.5 Even better! Thank you so much for your generosity. :) I don’t think Cambodia will be doing much worse than US 5 years from now

  13. randy says:

    there’s nothing wrong with American Idol… i think we should allow people their 2 hours a week of stress-free guilty pleasure.

    it’s the idiots that stay and watch shows like “Fringe” (after Idol) or sit on the couch every weeknight ingesting sewage piped through the TV that we need to be disgusted by. Idol is a victim of it’s own success and has become the whipping boy for American societal listlessness.

  14. EWellie says:

    It amazes me how the fools who bought way too high expect others to see the so-called value in their house. It stuns me to think there are so many greedy people out there who want prices to stay unaffordable. We’re heading back towards a reasonable market. That should be something to applaud.

  15. zieba says:

    Vote Randy for idiot!

  16. confused in nj says:

    “You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich. You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong. You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift. You cannot lift the wage earner up by pulling the wage payer down. You cannot further the brotherhood of man by inciting class hatred. You cannot build character and courage by taking away people’s initiative and independence. You cannot help people permanently by doing for them, what they could and should do for themselves.”
    Abraham Lincoln

  17. Shore Guy says:

    Who the heck is Randy?

  18. Shore Guy says:

    “Atlantic City, NJ -21.0%”

    Was it not just aboit a year ago that the AC area was the one spot in the state where prices were still rising?

  19. Herring123 says:

    Wow, Shore Guy, right on the money as usual- see Grim’s post from May 14, 2008: http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/05/14/foreclosures-up-65-in-april/#comment-185024

  20. Sastry says:

    Grim/Clot from last thread…

    If it goes through, I’d owe a lot to you guys… If it doesn’t, I have confidence that six months from now we will have a better deal.


  21. sas says:

    “Port Authority Blames Recession for Low Traffic”
    -NEW YORK (AP) — The agency in charge of New York City’s airports, bridges and harbor is blaming the recession for a downturn in traffic including a sharp drop in cargo.

    The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey says passenger traffic at its airports fell 11.6 percent in the first quarter of this year while air cargo dropped nearly 30 percent. Traffic at the bridges and tunnels linking New York City and New Jersey fell 5.4 percent.

    Cargo volumes at the Port of New York and New Jersey are down over 17 percent _ the biggest quarterly drop in more than 15 years.

    And fewer riders are taking the PATH commuter trains between northern New Jersey and Manhattan for the first time since 2003.

  22. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    U.S. Foreclosure Filings Hit Record for Second Straight Month

    Foreclosure filings in the U.S. rose to a record for the second consecutive month in April as banks increased efforts to seize homes from delinquent borrowers.

    A total of 342,038 properties received a default or auction notice or were seized last month, RealtyTrac Inc. of Irvine, California, said today in a statement. One in 374 households got a filing, the highest monthly rate since the property data service began issuing such reports in 2005.

    “What you’re seeing is the inevitable result of severe job losses,” Nicolas Retsinas, director of housing studies at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, said in an interview. “Until we stem the job losses, we can expect to see continuing foreclosures.”

    Foreclosure filings jumped 32 percent from the year-earlier period, RealtyTrac said. Filings were little changed from March as some states delayed seizures. Ten states accounted for three- quarters of all foreclosures in April, with California leading the nation.

    New Jersey had the 22nd highest rate, one in 695 households, and filings fell 4 percent to 5,034. New York ranked 36th at one in 1,420 households, and filings fell 1 percent to 5,591.

  23. grim says:

    From the Express Times:

    Atlantic States Cast Iron Pipe Co. lays off 40 workers at Phillipsburg facility

    Atlantic States Cast Iron Pipe Co. laid off 40 people last week, or about one-sixth of its work force, citing the economic downturn and related decline in home construction.

    Mitchell Kidd, vice president and general manager of the Sitgreaves Street foundry, said Tuesday that most reductions involved unionized workers plus some management positions. The cuts were enacted Thursday and Friday.

    Salaried workers received severance packages, Kidd said. Union workers did not, but Kidd said they have recall rights.

    “We would expect to bring those people back once the economy improves,” Kidd said.

    Kidd said the pipe maker’s business is tied heavily to housing construction, which has plunged amid the recession.

  24. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    New Hires Get Less Pay As Jobs Remain Scarce

    With nearly 14 million Americans unemployed, a growing number of people are competing for a dwindling number of job openings, allowing some employers to drive down pay and benefits for new hires.

    And the latest government figures show competition for jobs intensified in the first few months of 2009.

    Employers are laying off workers and taking other steps to cut costs as they grapple with the recession, the longest since the Great Depression.

    Some companies also are reducing the pay and benefits for new employees, according to a new survey released by the Society for Human Resource Management.

    Nearly 15 percent of service-sector companies reduced pay and benefits for new hires in April compared with March, the survey found. Only 2 percent increased such compensation.

  25. safeashouses says:

    #21 Sastry,

    If it’s in Green Brook and you need after school care that could cost you $250 a week per kid. The after school care gets outsourced, but is held in the all purpose room. I don’t know if anyone else does after school care for GB.

  26. grim says:

    Also from CNBC:

    Homeowners Turn to Renting, Waiting for Market to Recover

    Still having trouble selling your house? More homeowners are deciding to rent out their homes while they wait for the market to recover.

    “I had my condo on the market for three months and I didn’t have any bites,” says Molly Smith, a public relations executive in Newburyport, Massachusetts. “I realized if I was going to sell it, I’d take a big loss.”

    So the 29-year-old Smith, who wanted a shorter commute to her job, decided to rent out her house and move into a rental herself.

    “I was asking $145,000 and I couldn’t afford to go lower, so I decided to rent,” she explains.

    As the housing market slowly recovers from the biggest collapse since the Great Depression, homeowners are still finding it hard to unload their current residence without suffering a big loss. As a result, they’re deciding to hold onto the house but renting it out in hopes of selling later when the market improves.

    “With a glut of housing inventory, renting is a common option” says Jesse Keenan, an adjunct professor at the University of Miami who teaches classes on housing.

  27. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Health care eating into N.J. incomes

    Nearly 1.5 million New Jersey residents spend more than 10 percent of their pretax incomes on health care — and 80 percent of them are insured, an advocacy group said today.

    Higher premiums, rising co­pay­ments and deductibles as well as pricier treatment over the past nine years have led to a 43 percent increase in the number of people who have hit that spending bracket, according to Families USA, a Washington, D.C.-based advocacy group.

    Of those numbers, 364,000 New Jersey residents are in families that will spend more than 25 percent of their incomes before taxes on health care, the report concluded.

    “More and more families with insurance are affected by rising health care costs, and for many, the burden of these costs is becoming too great to bear,” said Ron Pollack, executive director of Families USA.

  28. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    N.J. average home prices down as much as 21%

    Distressed sales and foreclosed homes pushed down the average price of houses and condos sold in New Jersey by as much as 21 percent over last year in the first quarter of 2009, a national real estate group said today.

    Bargain hunters snapping up properties at discounts accounted for nearly half the buyers across the nation, the National Association of Realtors said.

    The average home sold in the Atlantic City area went for 21 percent less than the first quarter of 2008, while average sale prices of condos in an area that includes Bergen, Hudson and Passaic counties fell 15.4 percent.

    Condo price trends:

    • New York, Wayne, White Plains area (Passaic, Bergen and Hudson counties in New Jersey; Rockland, Putnam and Westchester counties and New York City in New York)
    -15.4 percent from $318,400 to $271,700

    • Edison area (Somerset, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean)
    -11.4 percent from $274,500 to $243,100

    • Newark-Union area (Hunterdon, Morris, Sussex, Essex and Union counties in NJ and Pike County, Pa.)
    -14.7 percent $318,400 to $271,700

    • Trenton-Ewing area (Mercer)
    -7.9 percent from $250,000 to $230,200

  29. grim says:

    David, skidding implies an attempt to stop. Home prices in NJ aren’t skidding at all. The car is in reverse and the foot is firmly planted on the accelerator.

    From the APP:

    Area home prices skid 11.3%

    In the midst of a recession, home prices in the area that includes Monmouth and Ocean counties dropped 11.3 percent in the first quarter compared with the year before, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday.

    The median sales price for an existing single-family home in Monmouth, Ocean, Middlesex and Somerset counties was $320,900 in the first quarter, compared with $361,800 in the same quarter in 2008. The median means that half the homes in the area sold for more and half sold for less.

    “The numbers show that the housing market is still undergoing a fundamental reset,” said economist James W. Hughes, dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University. “The adjustment process has certainly not run its course.”

  30. safeashouses says:

    #30 grim

    Maybe he’s referring to the “skid” marks in the sellers underpants?

    What do you mean you won’t buy my pos for 529k? I bought it in 2004 for 425k, took out 100k for my H2, plasma TV, and a few vacations. I did some work on it too. I’ve got granite! My stainless appliances are only 5 years old, probably worth more now then when I paid for it. And I out in them fluorescent bulbs. Easy another 3k in value right there.

    /off sarcasm and on skid marks as reality sets in.

  31. safeashouses says:

    This guy sounds like sas or kettle

    “Heart Attack Entr�es with Side Orders of Stroke”



    “Americans spend north of $15 billion to treat high blood pressure, and many billions more on expensive heart procedures, yet the government spends peanuts improving Americans’ diets,”

  32. grim says:

    From back in December:


    I work with a guy who is vehement about consumer spending increasing in the near term. Why? Because spending is a one way consumers can exhibit control over an environment that is slowly spinning out of control

    “As long as I can buy a new TV, there isn’t any recession for me. So I’ll spend, see, because I’m in control. As long as I behave as if things were just fine, they will be just fine.”

    From Bloomberg:

    ‘Good Bad’ Economy Inspires Americans to Splurge as Slump Eases

    Brooke and Doug Sterenberg booked a seven-day, $2,800 cruise to the Bahamas on Carnival Corp.’s ship the Conquest, with its three-deck-high Twister water slide. It’s the family’s reward for Doug keeping his job.

    “He made it through the first round of layoffs” at the Houston unit of bankrupt chemicals maker LyondellBasell Industries AF SCA, said Brooke, a 37-year-old mother of two. “We feel like we can’t control what’s going to happen in the future. No matter what, our family deserves a week away.”

  33. serenity now says:

    Speaking of skid marks – sounds like
    Continental is gonna be in a world of
    lawsuits. Incompetent pilots!!

  34. Cindy says:


    Grim – @ 25 and @ 28 –

    People are working with less money – now this:

    “Tax increases could kill the Recovery”

    “But while the cap-and-trade taxes rises with income, the relative burden is greatest for low-income households. According to CBO, households in the lowest-income quintile spend more than 20% of their income on energy intense items (primarily fuel and electricity), while those in the highest-income quintile spend less than 5% on those products.”

  35. Cindy says:


    In the video portion – Elizabeth Warren questions how TARP repayments should be handled – not recycled back into the program… Paybacks should go back to the taxpayers. She says it should require legal review.

  36. Essex says:

    16. Yeah until you realize the ‘rich’ stole everything from the people who were doing all the work.

  37. Everything's 'boken says:

    The ‘Lincoln’ quote is a famous fiction.

  38. traveljerk123 says:

    from the clinton news network (CNN)

    Foreclosures: ‘April was a shocker’
    A record number of foreclosure filings took place during April, but the number of repossessions fell 11%.

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Foreclosures in April exceeded even March’s blistering pace with a record 342,038 homes receiving notices of default, auction notices or undergoing bank repossessions, according to a regular industry report.


  39. Cindy says:

    Grim – from your article @27 – So besides the REOs that haven’t made it on the market, we have many rentals that actually should be figured into the “shadow inventory?”

  40. REBADBOY says:

    burn baby burn disco inferno. actually real estate has not fallen in price at all. Jan 1st 2000 was the last time RE was somewhat near normal prices this is just a deflation of the excess housing froth bringing prices back to more normal 1999 prices. So cheer up guys, housing is way up still from 1999.

  41. Clotpoll says:

    randy (13)-

    I don’t think anybody begrudges people a couple hours of entertainment. Some of the people on that show have some real talent and are fun to watch.

    The problem is exactly as you say: many of the Idol crowd cannot disconnect the TV/sewer pipe, and spend hours on end ingesting distorted reality shows, staged news, commercials and trash sports. If a big chunk of the population can’t balance that with reading a book, getting involved in the community, or just taking a walk, then you’re looking at the amorphous, Third World mess known as the American public.

    All that entertainment is washed down, of course, with HFCS-benzene soda.

  42. stan says:

    Whoa watch out. Your a bad boy, and a real estate bad boy, wow, I’m impressed. Is there a cigarette pack rolled up in your sleeve.

    Do you drive a firebird? Do tell.

  43. Clotpoll says:

    I still blame GWB for playing a big part in the sheeplization of America:

    At our most critical hour, when we could’ve been united to focus our energy on any number of positive things, he told everybody to go shopping.

    I guess we are also to blame, as so many of us readily took his advice.

  44. REBADBOY says:

    Stan I roll in a Rusty 76 firebird with bad boy t-tops I am so many I roll my cig pack in the hair on my arms.

    stan says:
    May 13, 2009 at 8:03 am
    Whoa watch out. Your a bad boy, and a real estate bad boy, wow, I’m impressed. Is there a cigarette pack rolled up in your sleeve.

    Do you drive a firebird? Do tell.

  45. Clotpoll says:

    sastry (21)-

    All props to Grim. I’m just a leech, eating his bandwidth.

  46. Clotpoll says:

    grim (27)-

    I’m amazed at how many people in this situation take a bad situation and turn it into an unmitigated disaster by deciding to play landlord.

    Renting out a house that won’t sell is probably the #1 dumbest thing a homeowner can do. My worst “distress” cases invariably feature a homeowner who has thought he can either make money or mitigate loss by renting out his home.

  47. reinvestor101 says:

    “As the housing market slowly recovers from the biggest collapse since the Great Depression”

    “Employers are laying off workers and taking other steps to cut costs as they grapple with the recession, the longest since the Great Depression”

    Two references from articles comparing the current situation to the Great Depression. This really shouldn’t be done as it unneccessarily scares people. Sure, we’ve had a slight reversal of fortunes here, but a recovery is well underway. I was listening to Cramer last night as he skewered folks like Roubini for being negative. He’s right, Roubini has no ideas and just wants to ruminate about doom and destruction. Larry Kudlow and Art Laffer are always upbeat and that’s who I’m going to listen to. I’m not going to let people like Roubini steal my joy.

  48. sas says:

    “average price of houses and condos sold in New Jersey by as much as 21 percent”

    conspiracy theory.
    doesn’t exist.
    your just a low rider from Perth Amboy.


  49. sas says:

    “At our most critical hour, when we could’ve been united to focus our energy on any number of positive things, he told everybody to go shopping”

    of course, cause your viewed as a consumer, and not a citizen.

    now go shop till you max out your credit card, buy the largest house that you can, and eat as much as you can.. till your health goes to the waste side, and spend even more money on health care to pay for your terrible eating habits.

    oh yeah…
    can you also buy some cigs & lotto tkts too.

  50. sas says:


    don’t get any funny idea reinvestor101.


  51. Clotpoll says:

    tard (48)-

    Kudlow also has a brain with cocaine-induced holes in it.

  52. Clotpoll says:

    tard (48)-

    But, that’s ok. Next to Dennis Kneale, Kudlow is Milton Friedman.

  53. Sastry says:


    Do you have any link for the after school day care in Green Brook? It’s still a bit early for our toddler.


  54. reinvestor101 says:

    What??? You didn’t give me any ideas. I’m already living the good life with the TV, big house and car. I’m way ahead of you on this one Mr. “Casper”

    sas says:
    May 13, 2009 at 8:17 am

    don’t get any funny idea reinvestor101.


  55. Paul Yarbles says:

    #16 confused in nj

    Looks like the quote is bullsh1t.


    Probably a Scaife foundation psyop.

  56. Girl Lurker says:

    Can anyone recommend a really good restaurant for lunch in the Upper Bergen County (Ridgewood vicinity) area? Thank you very much!

  57. kettle1 says:

    Barien 32

    This guy sounds like sas or kettle

    So you are suggesting that I am either a raving lunatic or a secret agent man…. hmmmm


  58. sas says:

    a little OT, but here is a good news story that i like to see.

    “Eli Manning Donates to Manhattan Birthing Center”


  59. sas says:

    i once got arrested at that NY Fed bldg.
    didn’t know they NY Fed had their own private police force.
    well, thats a offline story for another day

    “Fed Dread
    The New York Fed is the most powerful financial institution you’ve never heard of. Look who’s running it”


  60. PGC says:

    #57 Girl Lurker


    Worth the extra 10 min drive from Ridgewood.

  61. kettle1 says:


    you have the all the good black ops info…

    So when does the pentagon stop messing around and deploy a functional “rods from god” system? That would make another major more much more exciting then boring old nukes

  62. kettle1 says:

    That would make another major war more much more exciting then boring old nukes

  63. sas says:

    “rods from god”

    maybe Boeing? i do not know.
    but, if you want to have fun, look no further than AeroSat GyroChip and whom uses it, funds it, and where has it been deployed.

    “That would make another major war more much more exciting then boring old nukes”

    war ain’t fun or exciting.
    careful what you wish for…


  64. sas says:

    i’ll give you a little head start:
    CAI hedge fund

    ok, back to RE before Grim sends the East Germans on our tails.

  65. pfft says:

    From CNBC link:

    “The apartment was worth more than $1 million during the height of the housing market. It’s probably lost about 30 percent of its value, which is why I don’t want to sell it now. We’ll wait until the market recovers.”

    Hey Tommy Madden.. That apartment ain’t gonna be worth a million bucks again anytime soon. It was never worth a million bucks in the first place.

  66. Cindy says:


    Clot – The FHA mess?

    “Tax Credit as Mortgage Down Payment Now Official Federal Government Policy”

  67. Herring123 says:


    Why is renting your hourse out “the dumbest thing you can do?”

    The only reason I can think of is you’re paying rent in post-tax dollars and collecting rent in pre-tax dollars, and since you’re probably not making lifestyle adjustments i.e. living in a cheaper house or apt or ‘hood, you’re bearing a substantial tax loss.

    Am I missing something?

  68. Cindy says:


    “FHA Preps Tax Credit for Down Payment Use”

    “The initiative will allow FHA-approved lenders to monetize the tax credit through short-term bridge loans, letting borrowers access the funds at the closing table.”

    Clot/Grim – Does this mean business is going to pick up?

    We are so clever – and we’ve learned so much, too. No need to require the buyer to have a vested interest in the property. What are they going to do if it doesn’t work out? Walk away?

  69. Johnny W. says:

    Sweet! Burn baby, burn. I sold in 2006. Not quite at the peak but close enough. I have been renting ever since.

    So do I buy? NOPE. My realtor is of course pushing me to buy. Why should I buy? Its clearly not the bottom.

  70. PGC says:

    #68 Herring123

    If your tenants don’t pay and you have to evict, you are in twice the pain. Unless you have the funds to carry both the rental and the mortgage, you should just be a renter.

    Make, What’s your default rate these days?

  71. PGC says:

    Opps should read

    carry both the rental and the mortgage for at least a year,

  72. kettle1 says:


    wasnt trying to glorify war, was being facetious

  73. Cindy says:

    Herring123 – One story of a party who chose to rent:

    My brother is currently renting out a home in CA even though he moved to OR two years ago. The prices have dropped so much since his move that he would have been better off taking a small loss two years ago, not have messed with the trouble and cost of an agent to manage the rental, and just SOLD then.

    Luckily, he owes very little on the home. But he is now underwater on the OR property. Others might find themselves underwater on two places at once.

  74. veto that says:

    “Real estate has not fallen in price at all. Housing is way up still from 1999.”

    PEABODY, next year you may be saying the same thing about 1992.

  75. Stu says:

    Today’s economic numbers are looking particularly bad. Retail sales were once again, terrible. Credit card debt is imploding (I just got the interest rate on my discover card raised and I never carry a balance or pay late). Foreclosure numbers skyrocketed, after all, they did lift the moratorium. Oil and gold prices climbing together. Heck, even NG is coming off the bottom. 735 cargo ships empty in the Strait of Malacca. GM circling the drain and Chrysler about to close another 800 dealerships. Macy’s…sucked!

    The green shoots that everyone is talking about are really the green chutes attached to the dollar bills that helicopter Ben is airdropping.

  76. Clotpoll says:

    herring (123)-

    Simpler reasons than yours, especially in a market like this:

    1. Potential negative cash flow. Most “accidental landlords” in a market like the current one cannot even cover their monthly nut with the rent payments. They also don’t account for vacancy factors. The purpose of renting out RE is to make money, not lose it.

    2. Opportunity cost. Given a landlord’s refusal to cash out and free up what equity he may have- and, instead, pursuing the rental course- usually has a real cost…especially if that freed equity could be put toward an activity with gainful return, rather than burning cash.

    3. Erosion of investment due to inflation. Well, we don’t have to worry about that right now, do we? However, when we go from our current deflationary credit crisis into hyper-Weimar, look out. Or, I should say: look out below.

    4. Depreciation due to wear and tear. You can only depreciate investment property and recapture over 26 years. However, tenants- even the best ones- can take apart your house like rats on steroids. Also, the 3 AM tenant calls to let you know you need to come drill through their poo-jammed toilets tend to get annoying after a few years.

    5. Tax consequences. A homeowner must live in his home for two years out of the previous five in order to claim it as his primary residence for tax purposes. Past that point, the IRS considers it investment property, and it’s subject to cap gains when it sells. An owner could end up holding his home for another 8-10 years while waiting for the next housing boom to ignite, only to find that when he sells into that boom, the meager profits go up in smoke to IRS heaven. This will be especially awful if the fascist Mr. Obama and his congress of dunces jack the cap gains rate to the sky (which, IMO, is inevitable).

    I think Make Money can concur with me that being a landlord is a real job and requires some very real skills. Most homeowners are completely unsuited for such activities and end up incurring devastating losses when trying to play landlord.

    Whoever said your first loss is your best loss is completely right in this instance. Better to cut bait and sell, rather than ruin your life by landlording.

  77. Sean says:

    re: #’s 24 and 47 Clot and Grim

    Anecdotal – I went a looked at a place this month that was selling for 1.4 mil, after I walked the place and started out the door the owner then appeared from nowhere and offered to rent it to me for 4k a month, and all I could see the fear in that owners eyes.

  78. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (69)-

    This is the housing equivalent of the payday loan.

    Utterly shambolic…and a sign of the idiocy into which we’ve sunk.

  79. Clotpoll says:

    We tried to create a nation of consumers.

    Now we’re on a mission to create a nation of complete deadbeats.

  80. veto that says:

    Year over Year Single Family Price Changes
    NY-North NJ-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA -16.0%

    wow. If we see CS come in at -16%, i will never be so happy to have been wrong.

  81. Stu says:


    I would agree on a lot of your slumlord warnings, but it sure helps to be handy and frugal. I can’t stress enough how important it is to get the ‘right’ tenants.

  82. 3b says:

    Well with prices in our area being down somewhere between 15 to 20% form last year,it is quite likely they will be down another 15 to 20% this time next year, bringing us to our minimum 30% off peak.

    And that could just be the start.

  83. kettle1 says:

    Clot, CIndy,

    RE FHA tax credit monitization

    “Tax Credit as Mortgage Down Payment Now Official Federal Government Policy”


    talk about playing with house money!

  84. zieba says:

    RE: 78

    I was driving NJTPK south and noticed that the stack of containers in the port of Newark seems higher than ususal. They are stacked, four, five high; I seem to remember the stacks being much lower.

  85. REBADBOY says:

    Imaginary Losses, who cares. RE Bad Boys got more gold on their neck, bling on their wrists and phat cars in the driveway then their mansion is worth. When you are making 10 million bi-weekly who cares about a 2 million dollar loss, what is that one day pay?

    veto that says:
    May 13, 2009 at 9:11 am
    “Real estate has not fallen in price at all. Housing is way up still from 1999.”

    PEABODY, next year you may be saying the same thing about 1992.

  86. Stu says:

    Auto traffic has been unusually light for my commute as well. Purely anecdotal, but this stuff seems to be a much better indicator than anything you read in the MSM.

    I am so ready for the next leg down!

  87. zieba says:

    Honestly, I don’t see a difference in traffic. All I see in the morning as I enter NJTPK north are the lines of busses to NYC, just jam packed, waiting on line to merge onto 495. I did that for years…years! Now I open the sunroof, crank a good tune, extend my right foot and I’m in Englewood Cliffs in 15 minutes flat.

  88. zieba says:

    Is 87 a troll or just stupid?

  89. Clotpoll says:

    sean (79)-

    I just put a client of mine into a rental of a 3,200 sf Toll Bros house on an acre. Prime Hunterdon Co location, too.

    He actually wants to buy the house, but I told him to rent it until the homeowner (who has been trying to sell it on and off for the last three years) gets close to tapping out. Then, we will swoop in and make the landlord an offer he can’t refuse. I will also demand that all rents paid be credited toward the purchase price.

    This WILL happen. The landlord- natch- bought a house in NC and moved away at the beginning of this whole mess. We figure that he’s negative cash-flowing close to $1,000/month. Any little hiccup in NC, and this guy is tap city.

    The landlord asked us to allow a lockbox to be put on during the last two months of the rental, in order to list the house for sale. Knowing what he will ask, however, I told my client that there won’t be one single showing.

  90. Clotpoll says:

    Stu (83)-

    Hard to find “right” tenants in a sea of the foreclosed and tapped-out.

    The only good tenants that exist here are really smart guys, like my client in #91. If and when he buys, rest assured it’s not at a happy price for the seller.

  91. Rich says:

    Beware of inflation, it can make your savings become pocket change.

  92. Sean says:

    re# 93 Rich, We got it covered here. More advise has been doled out here on hedging against inflation or deflation than you will hear at a doctors infertility convention.

  93. Stu says:

    Retail sales in April were surprisingly negative, dashing market expectations significantly for two months in a row. Overall retail sales fell another 0.4 percent in April after dropping 1.3 percent the month before. The April decrease was sharply below the market forecast for a 0.1 percent increase. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales posted a 0.5 percent decline, after a 1.2 percent plunge in March. The fall in ex-auto sales was far worse than the consensus expectation for a 0.3 percent increase.

    Declines in sales were broad based but led by electronics & appliance stores, down 2.8 percent; gasoline stations, down 2.3 percent; and food & beverage stores, down 1.0 percent. The downward tug by gasoline sales hardly explains the overall weakness. Excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, retail sales fell 0.3 percent after declining 1.0 percent in March.

    Overall retail sales on a year-on-year basis in April were down 10.1 percent, down from minus 9.6 percent in March. Excluding motor vehicles, the year-on-year rate worsened to down 7.7 percent from down 6.3 percent in March.

    Equities will not like today’s retail sales numbers. The green shoots view of the economy holds true only if the consumer sector stabilizes. Look for possible flight to safety in the bond market.

    Retail sales down 10.1%? I’m surprised more retail has not closed down.

  94. Clotpoll says:

    Hoo boy, I can smell the 24DT for these green shoots getting brewed up right now:

    1. Higher fuel prices…just in time for your staycation!

    2. Higher electric, NG prices…just as Summer hits. Sit in your house and bake, loser.

    3. More job loss.

    4. Next leg down in housing.

    5. Next phase of default/foreclosure.

  95. #91 – clot – Then, we will swoop in and make the landlord an offer he can’t refuse. I will also demand that all rents paid be credited toward the purchase price.

    That is such a jerky thing to do that I may have to retain your services in the future :)

  96. Al says:

    Anybody with insider info/comments on MLS ID #2658713??

    Seems to be prices quite a bit under comps in the area and still not selling.

    Structural problems?

  97. Clotpoll says:

    tosh (97)-

    I’m not tough. The market is.

  98. Clotpoll says:

    Sell in May, and go away.

  99. Al says:

    May 13, 2009 at 9:38 am
    Hoo boy, I can smell the 24DT for these green shoots getting brewed up right now:

    Consumer ate all Green Shots without allowing them to grow :)

    Thats what you get in consumer based economy.

    I have being saying it for last 5-6 years – not here though – Service based economy is insustainable.

    Model in which we generate IP and China and India will do all the manufacturing is not working.

    Go, try prosecute some Chineese firms for breaking US patent laws!!!

    The best we can do is ban their products here, but hey – we did all the R@D for the chineese…

    Now they have tons of engeeneers who work for pennies – they are getting their own R@D – recently our company started collaboration with Some “Private” Chineese Companies – they are awash with govermental cash and have HUGE research campuses while in USA R@D was shrinking FAST since 1990’s…

    UNTILL there will be increase in manufacturing in USA there will be no recovery. Which means we are totally doomed….

  100. 3b says:

    #95 Stu: Amazing. Yet I am still getting jerked around out looking for another car,and paying cash.

    I was in a dealer showroom last Staurday, and the guy tells me, I better buy it now or it will be gone, 2:00 on a Saturday afternoon, and I am the only person there!!

    I just laughed and walked out.

  101. 3b says:

    #88 Stu: The Port Authortiy says ridership on PATH is down significantly,and I can see that everyday, as seat availability is much greater.

  102. Cindy says:

    (96) Clot – This Obama dude better think twice about his cap-and-trade fiasco. Passing costs on to tapped-out consumers at a time like this in sheer folly.

  103. veto that says:

    REBADBOY: your post reads like this:
    a $2 mill loss aint nothin, especially when you got an expensive piece of ‘bling’ on your wrist.

    Are you serious or what?

  104. Cindy says:

    Sean – Did you catch that piece with Elizabeth? (That’s what I call her now – Elizabeth.) It sounds like Timmy is wanting to “recycle” any paid back TARP funds into the banking sector and Elizabeth is saying, “No, those funds go back to the taxpayers and any other action should be challenged in the courts.”

  105. grim says:

    Massive cuts going down here, and I’m in what is traditionally considered a countercyclical industry.

    We’re not at the bottom.

  106. veto that says:

    “UNTIL there will be increase in manufacturing in USA there will be no recovery. Which means we are totally doomed”

    Al, i don’t entirely disagree with this concept but what good would it do if we made appliances, flat screens and widgets? there is no demand. Its not like manufacturing is helping the chinese get through the crisis. ya know?

  107. chicagofinance says:

    lurkerd says:
    May 13, 2009 at 12:25 am
    chifi – your main man is french connection uk’ed


  108. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll says:
    May 13, 2009 at 8:20 am
    tard (48)- But, that’s ok. Next to Dennis Kneale, Kudlow is Milton Friedman.

    clot: they have to create a new show where they team Dennis Kneale with Bob Sagat. They can call it Kneale & Bob.

  109. Silera says:

    Cindy- I’m also becoming a rabid fan of Elizabeth. I wonder if we’ll soon be able to tape poster size images of her on our walls.

    She’s dreamy.

  110. scribe says:

    sas, you said:

    oh yeah…
    can you also buy some cigs & lotto tkts too.


    I remember when, during the fiscal crisis of the mid-70’s, the states starting launching their lotteries.

    There were lots of objections about state-sponsored gambling being a form of regressive taxation. That’s all been forgotten. Now they’re all loading up on excessive tobacco taxes – 20 years after smoking started to decline seriously. Next up – more new excise taxes. The notion of putting an 18% excise tax on non-diet soda got creamed in NY – and also in CA – but apparently, the idea of a soda tax is now being talked about in Congress.

    I’m wondering what will be the spark that finally lights a serious taxpayer revolt.

    An overt revolt, not just people buying on the internet to avoid sales tax, and so on.

  111. Sean says:

    re: #106 – Cindy – Elizabeth Warren is courageous that is for sure, but she is swimming against the tide.

    I would not be surprised is the committee she is chairing is replaced and she is not invited back to the party.

  112. d2b says:

    I have a four year old Mustang GT convertible that needs to go into the shop because the roof leaks. This car rarely gets driven and only has 10,000 miles on it. The leak is such a known problem that Ford has a service bulletin on the problem. I will try to fix it myself and if not I will take it to the dealer.

    This is our only American car and I’m really pissed off that I’m going to have to pay for a repair. The service mgr said that Ford will not cover it.

    My problem with bailouts is that American cars suck and that’s why people don’t buy them. If the companies provided excellent cars at fair prices they would sell. Instead we reward failure in this country and let big business screw consumers.

    Ford’s not getting bailouts right now. However they sell a ton of fleet vehicles to the govt and I’m sure that GSA pricing has not been adjusted downward to market price.

  113. Traitor nom deplume says:


    Cap and trade is DOA. Once dems figure out it is a form of regressive taxation that cannot be avoided, cause price increases for fossil fuels, and will hit smokestack industries hard, they will kill it.

    [112] scribe,

    The smoking taxes have already caused a revolt among smokers, and internet sellers move offshore to avoid enforcement (they will use drop shippers and buyers here, but collect everything from an offshore bank, much like internet sports book sites). There is also apparently a growing underground, grassroots cigarette industry, but as I don’t smoke cigs, I know little of it.

    Soda is different. Not much money in smuggling that. But if there is a tax increase, look for the right to exploit it by bashing the “food police.” Talk radio would have a field day with this. In the end, I don’t see it happening because the middle is still not comfortable with the level of government intervention in thieir lives.

  114. 3b says:

    #113 sean:I would not be surprised is the committee she is chairing is replaced and she is not invited back to the party.

    She will be marginalized just like Volcker.

  115. NJGator says:

    Some purely anectodal data regarding 2009 property tax appeals in Essex County. I spoke with the County Tax Administrator’s office yesterday since we have not yet received a notice of our hearing date. We are not even scheduled yet. Earliest they might be able to hear us is sometime in July. They are swamped.

  116. #102 – 3b – IDK if this is relevant or not, but… Costco has a car buying program that I’ve been looking at. It’s no haggle pricing that seems to be pretty decent. You can most likely beat the prices if you really want to shop around and haggle with car dealers, I don’t though.
    They were quoting me $17.2K on a Mini that was MSRP’d at $19,3K, not too bad. I don’t personally know anyone who has used the service though.

  117. 3b says:

    #118 toshiro; Do you know if it works for used vehicels as well? I am looking for 2 or 3 year old vehicle.

    These dealers seem to belive that if they just hang on, things will turn around.

    I found one offering on craigslist (dealer). the list price was 14K. I bid 11.5, and had planned to come up to 12.5, and the guy said no;list price is his best priice. And I am paying cash.

    Same thing with cruises, looking to book Bermuda in July, lots of availabiltiy, and yet the prices are coming back at over $1,000 per person.

    Hey I am ready to do my part to stimulate the economy, but not at yesterdays prices.

  118. Stu says:

    Anyone think the recent CMBX charts are revealing some future pain in the CRE space?

  119. make money says:

    How about that SRS boys.

    I averaged down to $26.50. I’m now loaded and thinking 100% return in the next couple of months.

    Who’s with me on this roller coaster.

  120. #119 – 3b – Here’s the link;


    They say they do used.

  121. Stu says:


    I’m with you but am nowhere near averaged as low as you are.

    I wouldn’t count your chickens just yet, but this Fall could be a repeat of last Fall and the late Summer prior to that.

    We can be hopeful.

  122. 3b says:

    #122 toshiro: Thanks. I just called them, they offer a program for cetified used, vehicles, but it is a pilot program not available in the tri state area.

  123. Jim says:

    I just returned from three weeks in South Jersey working on the compound. We mainly did garden work as the lot is fairly large (one acre) and the two past owners didn’t do anything with it for 30 years. Things are coming along nicely but make sure to estimate at the high end for repairs/renovations when you buy a place. For example, the city wouldn’t let me install a chain link fence in that area of town so I had to get something else that was more appropriate and cost quite a bit more. I found contractors to be available for work but the prices aren’t exactly at bargain rates.

  124. jcer says:

    Car dealers haven’t gotten real yet, volume is nill yet they think buyers will come running. When I bought my car last month I couldn’t get Prestige to move off their prices at all, wound up paying $1500 more than I should have but when your lease is up and you need a car and they have the one you want they don’t tend to budge. Fyi if you need to buy a car in Bergen, avoid prestige they are among the worst dealers in NJ.

  125. Secondary Market says:

    @120 Stu. I can’t speak for the chart itself but I can tell you attendance for the largest CRE Conference next week in Vegas is down 50%. Folks don’t even want to posture at this point. CRE is certainly going to be the next wave and I have seen vacancies noticeably increase in Boston, D.C., Philly and Houston. Markets which I specifically handle.

  126. Ben says:

    “Al, i don’t entirely disagree with this concept but what good would it do if we made appliances, flat screens and widgets? there is no demand. Its not like manufacturing is helping the chinese get through the crisis. ya know?”

    Production before consumption. If we produced everything we consume, the demand naturally arises as a result of our production. This is how we developed our consumer class after World War 2. The Asian economies are an anomaly. They have such a cultural habit of under consumption that they’ve literally relied on the rest of the world to buy their things and they even resorted to financing the rest of the world’s consumption.

  127. Stu says:

    Thanks Secondary! Very appreciated.

  128. make money says:

    I’m with you but am nowhere near averaged as low as you are.


    It took a lot of hairy ones when I doubled down at $21. But I’m still to find anyone who lost money betting agaisnt Bi and the rest of the fools.

    I’m still in the red but future is bright.

  129. Secondary Market says:

    NP, Stu. I don’t have a link so I apologize to the board for the long post but this touches on Retail Vacancies via CoStar:

    Retail Space Availability Reaches All-Time High

    April 22, 2009

    The nation’s retail market posted negative quarterly net absorption for the first time, along with the highest vacancy and availability rates, since CoStar Group began tracking retail trends in 2000, according to the Bethesda, MD-based company’s first-quarter 2009 retail review and forecast.

    On the heels of the release of CoStar’s First Quarter 2009 National Retail Report, Senior Director of Research and Analytics Jay Spivey conducted a webinar titled “The State of the Commercial Real Estate Industry: 1st Quarter 2009 Retail Review,” on April 17.
    Spivey noted that quarterly retail leasing activity has dropped off about 9 million square feet over the last two quarters, leading to 24 million square feet of negative net absorption and a 7.2% total vacancy rate recorded during first quarter.

    Retail space listed as “available” for lease (which could be vacant or occupied) has been rising at an increasing rate. Since the start of the recession, 697 million square feet of available retail space has been added to the market, Spivey showed. This level of availability may be a more realistic indicator of the state of the market than vacancy, said Spivey. Specifically, retail space availability has increased a staggering 1,280 basis points to 19.4% since second-quarter 2006, while the vacancy rate has increased only 120 basis points over the same period.

    Supporting the build-up of available retail space, CoStar’s research shows that the average days a retail space is listed on the market as “available for lease” has continued to rise — from 174 days in first-quarter 2006 to 370 days in first-quarter 2009.

    Landlords have only recently showed a definitive response to the down market by lowering asking rental rates. The average rental rate has declined from $17.64 per square foot in second-quarter 2008 to $17.51 per square foot at the close of first quarter.

    To demonstrate the impact retailers closing large amounts of stores can have on retail real estate fundamentals, Spivey used Circuit City’s closure of 567 stores as an example. As Circuit City was typically an anchor tenant at community or power shopping centers, CoStar found that the average vacancy rate at shopping centers where Circuit City occupied space has shot up to 22.2%, while average asking rental rates have lowered from a high of nearly $25 to a low of about $21 per square foot. If that’s not enough pressure on those landlords, Spivey pointed out co-tenancy issues may arise, causing additional vacancy at these centers. For example, CoStar found that Verizon Wireless is a co-tenant in 192 of 388 Circuit City shopping centers.

    Aside from retailers closing stores and a lack of retailers opening new stores, Spivey showed that retail real estate is feeling more pain during this recession due to excess inventory. In the past 15 years, 510 million square feet of retail space has delivered, accounting for 7% of total retail square footage. The good news is that developers have backed off, showing a downward trend in deliveries since 2006, said Spivey.

    So far in 2009, Spivey said 895 retail buildings totaling 23.5 million square feet have delivered and this new space is about 67% leased. Developers have lowered the average asking lease rate on these new buildings from their peak by about 7% to try to keep leasing momentum going.

    Currently, there is about 82 million square feet of retail space under construction, but square footage scheduled to deliver this year will cause only about a 0.6% addition to the total retail market, Spivey said. These under-construction properties are currently 57% leased and to attract new tenants, developers have responded by lowering the average asking lease rate a hefty 29% from a peak of $37.74 per square foot, he added.

    The Westchester, Northern New Jersey, and Dallas markets were identified as having the most retail square footage under construction as a percentage of total inventory. Benchmarking new retail space deliveries against absorption levels, Spivey identified Los Angeles and Atlanta as having more excess retail inventory than any other markets. For more regional leasing trends, follow this link.

    To put the U.S. retail real estate market in perspective, Spivey said that average retail building was built in 1968 and is 15,568 square feet. Further supporting the role small retail centers play, Spivey said that only 3% of retail buildings in the U.S. are 100,000 square feet or larger, but these buildings account for 39% of total retail space. Spivey then broke down retail leasing trends by property type. For more on that, follow this link.

    Unfortunately, CoStar is forecasting that the retail vacancy rate will continue to climb, surpassing 9% sometime in the next year, said Spivey. Additionally, negative absorption nearing 100 million square feet is expected against a backdrop of about 125 million square feet of new retail space and continually declining rents.

  130. #126 – Car dealers haven’t gotten real yet

    This is a somewhat rhetorical question, but;
    We’re at least 10 years into the whole internet thing. Why are we still dealing with car dealerships? Seriously, why?

    Maybe this is a model of sales that will be done away with by the credit crisis/consumer spending crash. A large reason I won’t buy an American car isn’t quality, but their dealerships.

  131. Stu says:

    Make (130),

    You want hairy? I was down 70% last year on a mongo-sized position only to make well over 200% on it in long-term gains. At this point, I would be more than happy to take a small loss as everyone else watches their long positions take a turn for the worse.

    Disclaimer: I make all of my investment decisions based on the readings from my magic eight ball. Currently, the outlook is cloudy.

  132. 3b says:

    #126 jcer:Fyi if you need to buy a car in Bergen, avoid prestige they are among the worst dealers in NJ.

    Thanks for the heads up, they were one of the dealers I was working with.

  133. zieba says:

    Stu, make and clot:

    Here’s a little sumfin’ sumfin’ to pass the time:

    Coming to a neighborhood near you!


  134. 3b says:

    #132 toshiro: Lots of dealers use the internet, as a draw, but still will not get serious until you come into the dealer.]

    Many times the car you express interest in, via the internet is not there when you get to the dealer, but they use the old well we have a similiar one etc. etc.

    Also astounding as it seems, a couple of dealers said tehy did nto care about the cash, and wanted me to finance instead, so they could maybe, possibly come down some more in price.

    It is a real pain having to deal with this nonsense.

    They are crying about nobody buying, but they are still playing games.

  135. BC Bob says:


    First buy on Friday. I waited for the Bi/Frank meter to register new highs.

  136. jcer says:

    3b they seem good when you are buying the car, after the purchase you can’t get a hold of the salesperson and their service department is undersized for the volume they sell, so good luck with that. Not that Paul Miller and Globe are any much better. The weird thing is that cars have gotten more expensive as opposed to less from what I can see.

  137. 3b says:

    #138 jcer:It should not be this difficult, but hey I will keep playing the game. I will be resubmitting all my bids again tomorow.

    It was easier back in the day for me to get the extra 05 or 10, than trying to buy a car;for cash no less, in a recession.

  138. 3b says:

    #137 BC Bob: You mean the same bi, who said there was not a recession in the first place, who than qualified that statement by saying well maybe there was something maybe like a recession but it ended close of business on 3/31/09, who than pushed it up until the end of April.

  139. make money says:

    First buy on Friday. I waited for the Bi/Frank meter to register new highs.


    That’s why you’re a genious.

  140. BC Bob says:

    3b [140],

    Actually, I think was the Bi that stated, well over a year ago, that the writedowns were finished.

  141. make money says:

    You want hairy? I was down 70% last year on a mongo-sized position only to make well over 200% on it in long-term gains. At this point, I would be more than happy to take a small loss as everyone else watches their long positions take a turn for the worse.


    That is pretty hairy! Mongo sixed position? My position is now over 20% of my net worth. assuming Bi is 6 figure earner it’s a 20 yr Bi gross wages type position. I sold some shiny for this.

    I was never down 70% though. God bless you for that.

  142. kettle1 says:

    The Big 3 are all toast and what rises in their place will be very different. The current auto model is based on people replacing cars every 2-4 years and doing so through easy credit. If credit is tight and demands any significant portion of the purchase be paid in cash then we will be lucky to see demand at 1/3 of what it currently is.

    How many jobs, both directly and indirectly does that eliminate? a lot

    GM Will Notify 1,000 Dealers on May 15 of Franchise Expiration.

    The largest U.S. automaker said last month it plans to shrink its dealer network to about 3,600 from the 6,200 outlets it operated at the end of last year as part of the restructuring plan it presented to the Obama administration.


  143. kettle1 says:


    if you can now buy a house with essentially 0 down by monitizing the tax credit, isnt this essentially the same thing as renting?

  144. BC Bob says:

    “if you can now buy a house with essentially 0 down by monitizing the tax credit, isnt this essentially the same thing as renting?’


    No. The asset declines, the debt remains.

  145. Hubba says:

    I think REBADBOY is John goofing on us.

  146. kettle1 says:

    a new reason not to buy “American”

    ready for toxic/exploding/deathtrap cars from china?

    GM China Ventures May Export Vehicles to U.S.

    General Motors Corp. may export vehicles made in China to the U.S., Shanghai Securities News reported, without saying where it got the information from.


  147. morpheus says:


    Bought my jeep wrangler via the costco program about 6 years ago. As I recall, I got a price a little higher than dealer invoice.

    Also got financing thru them and used that to beat up the dealer on financing. Dealer came lower on the financing in order to acquire this business.

    Had no problems getting the vehicle serviced at the dealership.

    However, if I had to do it again, I would rather have a private mechanic do the service.

    All in all, when I buy another new car, I will use costco’s program

  148. kettle1 says:


    If the mortgage is non recourse and you dont care about the credit hit, is there really a difference in the current market?

  149. morpheus says:


    Because I have car that is over 6 years old and I plan to run it into the ground and not buy a replacement until it dies, will reinvestor 101 call me terrorist?

    Will I be waterboarded?

  150. kettle1 says:


    yes and yes

  151. Hubba says:

    3b #102 and #118 tosh

    I’ve been through it recently with both the AAA buying program and Costco for new. AAA is better since your will get actual pricing from 3 dealers and wound up being significantly less than dealer list price for a new Subie and better than any non AAA dealer I contacted. Costco program is still clandestine. You walk in, they show you the “Costco price” and it winds up being better if you had not used the program at all.

  152. 3b says:

    #153 Does AAA do used/certified?

  153. Safeashouses says:

    #54 sastry,

    I called the school and asked last year.

    Sorry, don’t have a link.

  154. RU says:

    3b & jc: I am about to come off lease on a Camry and told the Toyota finance people that I think I might buy it out after the lease is over. I live in BC and was contacted by Prestige. I was on the phone last nite with the end of lease coordinator and he was trying to talk me into another lease. He told me that buying my lease is losing proposition b/c it’s not worth the buyout (which it is…I checked around). I asked him if it wasn’t the same with any car since they lose most of their value after you drive it off the lot. Just heard a stutter from him.
    Anyway, 3b, just do your homework on the car. The way sales are now, even for Toyota, you should maybe pay a max of $300 over dealer invoice. Even less of there are incentives.

  155. 3b says:

    #142 BC Bob: As we know, the write downs will be ongoing for years.

  156. Morpheus & Hubba – Thanks for the input on the costco program. I’ll check out AAA as well.

  157. skep-tic says:

    one thing about the posted price declines… as ChiFi has pointed out in the past, there seems to have been huge changes in the mix of properties being sold. Since the jumbo loan market is so tight, there has been a massive collapse in sales above $750k. It is hard to say how much prices have really declined at the high end since price discovery is so spotty.

  158. Hey You says:

    Face it you bought high, your stuck, no one cares. Sometimes its just not your choice. Be glad you have a job & can pay for over priced “nice” house that is a depreciation asset. 401(K)can loose 40 – 50% in value but NOT your house. Right – keep thinking this way buddy.

  159. 3b says:

    #157 RU: Prestige list prices are a joke, 20K for a 2 or 3 year RAV 4 with 60 to 70k miles.

    I am doing all the homework, and than some. Just have to find a dealer who has a clue.

  160. Thundaar says:

    Hey guys, I have been in the market for a “loaded” 2009 CRV and has been a tough battle. Best “out the door price” so far has been $27,000. I have emailed 10 dealers in NJ and the best price so far is either in Madison or Old Bridge.
    Wifey wants a CRV and nothing else will do…
    Anyone hear of CRV’s going cheaper?

  161. Stu says:

    Honda = impossible!

  162. Qwerty says:

    RE: “At our most critical hour, when we could’ve been united to focus our energy on any number of positive things, he told everybody to go shopping.”

    That’s a myth. Consumer spending remained essentially flat during that period, but rose incredibly in the years prior:


  163. Thundaar says:

    Think you are right Stu! I have tried everything and no luck….I guess Honda is doing okay these days?
    AAA has been good to use for financing as well.

  164. Qwerty says:

    See chart: “Expenditure share for non-necessities”

  165. I didn’t notice this earlier today, but per this Minyanville article new home inventory is at 13 months nationally. I’m surprised that isn’t getting more play.

  166. Sean says:

    re#88 Stu your mention of traffic being down

    Check out this on rail traffic.


  167. bi says:

    2 handles, i’m with you until $26.49

    > make money says:
    May 13, 2009 at 11:12 am
    How about that SRS boys.

    I averaged down to $26.50. I’m now loaded and thinking 100% return in the next couple of months.

    Who’s with me on this roller coaster.

  168. kettle1 says:

    wheres the beef?

    april is tax seasonal and the government usually see’s a huge jump in outlays versus receipts.

    take a look at arpil 09 Vs april 08

    the treasury is short about 34%!!!

    that is the government spent 34% more then it took in during april 09. This is virtually unheard of due to the massive influx of april tax receipts.

    treasury report

    see table on page 2, note that positive values are marked as negative. i.e. 20$ in out lay and 25$ in receipts would be denoted as a total of -5

    Consider what lies ahead if the US government went negative in what is normally its month with the largest volume of receipts!!!

  169. bi says:

    top 13 srs holders:

    15 Clotpoll
    13 3b
    10 Stu
    10 kettle1
    10 grim
    8 sas
    8 Cindy
    6 zieba
    6 toshiro_mifune
    6 reinvestor101
    5 veto that
    5 make money

  170. kettle1 says:


    how exaclty did you determine that list?

    it sounds like MM probably has more on that then the rest of us combined. He has more then the 2 shares i currently hold ;)

  171. Shore Guy says:


  172. #173 – At what point have I ever anywhere on this blog indicated what my investment strategy is, let alone what equities/etfs I might purchase?

    OR, have you gone back to running your nifty awk > wc script rather than try to make a running start at a post with any sort of substance?

  173. bi says:

    173#, by the way, reinvestor 101 is probablly shorting srs. i cann’t determine the side of his position by my black box.

  174. Shore Guy says:

    Dealer invoice is just a marketing tool. Don’t forget, the invoice price includes dealer holdback so that even “at invoice,” and even if the F&I makes them no money because of a cash deal, the dealer makes money.

  175. Shore Guy says:

    Why is it that we do not hang American citizens who do this?


    I fully expect the Chinese, Russians, and others to try and steal our information. That is their job. That said, an American who sells secrets to another government, well, they need to be executed.

  176. confused in nj says:

    Luckily Obama/Pelosi will only Tax Private Sector Health Care. Public Sector and Illegal Alien Health Care will remain Tax Free. They must have gotten this from Chavez. Still it’s Bipartisan. It represents the worst part of McCains Platform. Guess the Communists are in both Parties.

  177. Shore Guy says:

    Now maybe I will not have so many people asking why I drive instead of taking commuter flights when I can:


  178. Stu says:

    Shore Guy (181):

    WOW! But probably still safer than driving by about 350 to 1. :P

  179. zieba says:

    The missus is into the Tudors. I’ve seen my fair share of hangings and beheadings lately. I’m all for it. Then again, if a few on this board had it their way we’d have public hangings of a handful government officials.

    What do the numbers that precede our handles mean? Is that some sort of code?
    I don’t own any SRS. Sorry.

    H@oly szyt! Those numbers are startling. It’s a good thing I don’t travel to Nashville as often anymore.

  180. veto that says:

    173 – srs list
    bi, guilty as charged.

  181. Stu says:

    The best part of bi-curious’ SRS top 13 list is that it only has 12 names!

  182. #183 – we’d have public hangings of a handful government officials.


  183. BC Bob says:

    “What do the numbers that precede our handles mean? Is that some sort of code?
    I don’t own any SRS. Sorry.”

    zieba [183],

    Bi’s blackbox is bored. It’s the list of the top posters today. A little comedy from Bi.

  184. Sean says:

    re#172 kettle1 – pay no attention to that Treasury tax revenue report, nobody cares about tax revenues, not when we have a printing press.

  185. veto that says:

    179 – US Spies

    Shore, Just finished ‘History of C1A’.
    very depressing book. Goes on for 500 pages about horrible and stupid our C1A is. According to book, K GB and mi-6 run circles around our intellegence, they actually get inside to their targets over the course of generations. Apparently, the only thing we are good at is secretly going across enemy lines with millions of taxpayer cash and greasing palms. Perhaps sas can elaborate here because thats all i got…

  186. Stu says:

    “The best part of bi-curious’ SRS top 13 list is that it only has 12 names!”

    Hey ChiFi…does bi need to post a disclaimer or does his inability to count exclude him?

  187. still_looking says:

    Thundaar 163.

    Edmunds.com has a good primer on car purchasing. There also an outstanding article by a guy who “went behind enemy lines” and worked as a car salesman for 2 months and reported back what he found.

    Its a long read but soooo worth it! There’s a link to carsdirect where you can plug in the car you want and they will find it for you.

    I can’t say it’s gonna be rock bottom, but we just bought a Nissan Rogue thru them and it was painless.

    You can always shop their quote around as well.

    We didn’t finance (in part thanks to SKF and SRS :) so it wasn’t an issue but I think they help you with that too.



  188. Stu says:

    Tatis…Grand Slam.

  189. Sean says:

    All Auto deals are cut with the Finance Manager at the dealership who still must get the manager involved to do anything more than remove the undercarriage treatment and the glass etching fees from the invoice.

    Don’t waste your time with the car salespeople, most are so beaten down mentally from watching Glengarry Glen Ross reruns in the break room they forget the reason why they even took that craptastic job in the first place.

  190. still_looking says:


    the link….

    it’s really fascinating and Sean is right!

    these folks are really frighteningly pathetic!


  191. Stu says:

    I agree with still_looking on utilizing Edmunds.

    My car buying methodology is simple. I find the true dealer price online. I give the dealership about $200 profit for every $10,000 the car is worth. As soon as I walk into the dealership, I show them my data and say “You will sell me this car at this price.” Then the BS entails and I usually end up working with the dealership sales manager as the lower rung guys find me too annoying. I always get the car at my price. This works really well, but admittedly I always buy last years model (new) during a major redesign phase of the current year’s model, hence my possession of a 95 Civic hatchback and our 2004 Nissan Xterra.

    Sometimes, the dealers won’t play ball and I let them know which competitor I’m headed to next. Except at Honda, this always works.

    Indeed I do hate the BS, but I have yet purchased an auto without suffering through it.

    Just as when buying RE, determining the true value of the item you are buying puts you in a position to negotiate fairly and confidently. It also helps to educate your wife to occasionally say, “I’m not in love with the car,” approximately every five minutes.

  192. Sean says:

    You need to “terrorize” the dealership folks if you want a deal on a new car. Just focus on the Finance Manager and the Dealership Manager everyone else there is cannon fodder.

    FYI, I am for “hire” I can terrorize a dealership worse than the Priceline Negotiator on crank.


  193. still_looking says:

    and our 2004 Nissan Xterra.

    mmmmmmmm mmmmmmm almost as exciting as grim’s chest hair…. mmmm mmmmmmm

    (wanted it, but needed better gas mileage….)

    I’m still hopelessly smitten with my 2001 Pathfinder (and grim’s chest hair.)


  194. relo says:

    Research the vehicle w/ options that you want. Scour local dealership’s inventory for same via internet. Send e-mail to all possessing “your” vehicle to “internet sales” managers stating you will purchase vehicle w/ specific options by x date and ask him to bid in writing. Play the most competitive against each other via phone. Pick a “winner” and close the deal.

  195. relo says:

    Unless, of course, you find spending time at the dealership entertaining.

  196. grim says:

    Feels eerily like the dot com bust around here…

  197. kettle1 says:

    Sean et al

    Here is the data on both april and mohthly tax receipts since 1980. April tax receipts have been negative only one other time since then.


  198. Shore Guy says:


    The CIA folks I know are all very fine people. The problem is that human intelligence takes years to develop and we live in a short-term culture and shorter-term thinking from our political leadership. This is exacerbated by the NRO and NSA and their gee wiz tech and their seemingly-magical ability to get great stuff at will. The poloticians drool over this and yawn at human intel gthering, which brings greater opportunities for snafus and diplomatic blow-ups. The British, Russians, and French have more patience and patience is necessary for human intelligence gathering.

  199. #202 – I remember that feeling very well.
    Best of luck to you.

  200. still_looking says:

    CRE about to hit the mat?


  201. Sean says:

    re#203 Kettle1 – more here on the Ticker Forums.

    April Tax Revenue Collection State by State


    Can you say bloodbath in government jobs?

  202. chicagofinance says:

    Stu says:
    May 13, 2009 at 2:12 pm
    Hey ChiFi…does bi need to post a disclaimer or does his inability to count exclude him?

    Stu: “bi” translated into English means “…all investments involve different degrees of risk. You should be aware of your risk tolerance level and financial situations at all times. Furthermore, you should read any and all prospectuses carefully before making any investment decisions. You are free at all times to accept or reject all investment recommendations made. All products sold are subject to market risk and may result in the entire loss to the client’s investment. Please understand that any losses are attributed to market forces beyond control or prediction. As you know, a recommendation, which you are free to accept or reject, is not a guarantee for the successful performance of an investment.

  203. John says:

    Going to a car dealer is like buying a “real” handbag off the streets of chinatown and finding it is not a bargain. One good trick I learned for people to lazy to go to auction or buy from a private party is to get a friend with a dealer number, dealers list excess inventory to swap with other dealers at pure wholesale or below. Could be guy has one 2008 blue Mustang for sale and gets a second one on trade in. You can even sucker dealer one by looking at it on his lot and having your friend pick it up wholesale for you. Of course dealers hate this stuff. You need a dealer number and password to get into the dealer only site.

    Interesting lunch I just had, appears they will be no more systemic banks or BDs going under nor systemicly interelated firms going under. Right now we are entering the extradiction phase of TARP as stronger compaines want to get free of it. Remember in RTC when we shut down banks we learned it costs a heck of a lot more to take over banks with dumb govt employees then to help the bank out so we are going the help the bank out route. Other thing of note the Public Private Investment Program, PPIP will be a success, banks that have illiquid assets can be quietly forced to particpate if Feds desire. As long as sales are not pure firesale prices they must participate, we need to get toxic assets off books and replace these holes with performing assets, other thing to note is EC is poking their heads in and given they border on near commie countries to capitialist countries they are indecisive and we need to find ways to keep them from mucking up the financial recovery.

  204. chicagofinance says:

    stu, bost & albani: I said I was concerned about 5/15; however, I still think that there is a better than 50% shot that you will sincerely regret a BET-THE-HOUSE kind of VIG you are chucking out there. Even though you think you have the multiplier on your side. Go ahead..bet, just don’t shoot your load…

  205. veto that says:

    “The problem is that human intelligence takes years to develop”

    shore that is the whole point of book, so now you dont have to read. basically saying the ruskies and brits have been at the intelligence game for hundreds of years while we started our program only 80 yrs ago

  206. grim says:

    #205 – I’m the guy that will be turning off the lights. Not that it makes the situation any better.

  207. John says:

    Use proper risk management and always bring a mop boy when you shoot your load.

    chicagofinance says:
    May 13, 2009 at 3:05 pm
    stu, bost & albani: I said I was concerned about 5/15; however, I still think that there is a better than 50% shot that you will sincerely regret a BET-THE-HOUSE kind of VIG you are chucking out there. Even though you think you have the multiplier on your side. Go ahead..bet, just don’t shoot your load…

  208. NY Times article on Obama proposal to regulate the derivatives market.

  209. HEHEHE says:

    “Can you say bloodbath in government jobs?”

    That or taxes through the roof!

  210. Shore Guy says:

    “the ruskies and brits have been at the intelligence game for hundreds of years while we started our program only 80 yrs ago”

    And theirs was not immediately sidetracked by a focus on tech.

  211. John says:

    You guys going long SRS need to buy some of this as you certainly have been tokin on the bong

    Medical Marijuana Inc (OTHER OTC:MJNA)

  212. Shore Guy says:

    “theirs was”? Yeesh. Their efforts WERE not…

  213. BC Bob says:

    “I still think that there is a better than 50% shot that you will sincerely regret a BET-THE-HOUSE kind of VIG you are chucking out there.”


    How much you want to bet? By the way, why do you assume I bet the house? That bet is placed in another vehicle.

  214. BC Bob says:

    John [219],

    Got long on the close, Friday. Come again?

  215. John says:

    Funny part about BC Bob is who knows what he considers a big bet, seen plenty of guys like him who throw nickles around like they were manhole covers.

  216. John says:


    great article that sums up boomers attitudes towards housing

  217. BC Bob says:

    John [223],

    That’s funny. However, you don’t know me.

  218. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [217] shore

    I wish. Still, law has more than its share of great looking women. I am taking ICLE now and most of the women in there are pretty hot.

  219. NJGator says:

    Shore 181 – This should make you feel equally as comfortable:

    WASHINGTON (CNN) — Margie Brandquist wears a framed photo of her sister, who died in a plane crash three months ago.

    Her sister, Mary Pettys, 51, was planning to get married when her Continental Connection Flight 3407 went down in icy conditions near Buffalo, New York.

    The flight, operated by regional carrier Colgan Air, plunged into a house in Clarence Center, killing all 49 people on board and one man in the house.

    Brandquist is one of several of the victims’ family members attending this week’s National Transportation Safety Board hearing on Capitol Hill.

    Brandquist wants to know why the pilot — who failed several flight tests before joining the airline — never received hands-on training with the emergency equipment that was activated before the crash.

    “We put our lives in the hands of people that we assume that the [Federal Aviation Administration] and the airlines are properly training,” she told CNN’s Randi Kaye.


  220. Shore Guy says:


    Just keep repeating this line from Toy Story:

    “I’m a married spud. I’m a married spud.”

  221. NJGator says:

    Oops…here’s the rest of the article:

    Anne Marie Russo, whose daughter Madeline died in the crash, watched Tuesday’s televised hearing at a hotel in Newark, New Jersey, with other families who lost loved ones on the flight.

    Don’t Miss
    Screams, ‘We’re down,’ recorded in cockpit
    Airline defends training of pilot involved in fatal crash
    “This should not have happened,” she said. “These 50 people should be enjoying their life right now.”

    She said she believes cost-cutting measures by airlines may have been a factor in the crash.

    “Maybe the training has to be more safer, more satisfactory for the public,” she said. “This is tragedy that happened to these 49, 50 people — it could happen to any one of us.”

    Dan Marzolf, who also lost a loved one in the crash, said Tuesday’s hearing was very technical, but he hopes “to get to some conclusions.”

    “I really do hope good will come from these meetings,” he told CNN’s affiliate in Buffalo, WGRZ.

    The safety board investigators Tuesday released a transcript of the cockpit voice recording from moments before the crash. The last sounds heard were First Officer Rebecca Shaw saying, “We’re,” then screaming, at 10:16 p.m.

    Seconds earlier, the pilot, Capt. Marvin Renslow, said, “Jesus Christ” as a sound “similar to stick shaker,” an emergency warning system, was heard, the transcript said. Renslow said, “We’re down,” and a thump was heard before Shaw said, “We’re” and screamed.

    About five minutes before the crash, Shaw had shared with Renslow her fear of flying in icy conditions. “I don’t want to have to experience that and make those kinds of calls. You know I’dve freaked out. I’dve had like seen this much ice and thought, ‘oh my gosh, we were going to crash,'” Shaw told Renslow.

    The safety board’s preliminary investigation determined there was some ice accumulation on the Bombardier Dash 8-Q400 aircraft, but that “icing had a minimal impact on the stall speed of the airplane.”

    At Tuesday’s hearing, Colgan Air acknowledged that Renslow never trained on the “stick pusher” emergency system in a flight simulator.

    “In the ground school portion it is covered,” said Paul Pryor, head of Colgan Air’s pilot training program.

    Such training is not required by the Federal Aviation Administration.

    “That’s a significant problem,” veteran pilot Douglas Moss told CNN. Moss, an expert in stall recovery, believes flight simulator practice with a stick pusher should be mandatory for aspiring pilots.

    “It’s similar to picking up and throwing a groundball in baseball. You can study it academically all you want to, but you really need to develop the proficiency, the skill, the muscle memory required to do that,” Moss said.

    Renslow had failed five pilot tests, known as check rides, three of which occurred before he joined the airline, Colgan Air said. Renslow had revealed only one of those failures to the airline, according to Colgan.

    Wally Warner, a Bombardier test pilot who testified Tuesday, said he believes the pilot could have overcome the stall that caused the crash.

    “Obviously the initial reaction to the stall warning was incorrect and that set the course of action for what followed,” Warner said

  222. confused in nj says:

    Government aid to AIG now totals $182.5 billion. Liddy pegged the company’s current value at around $5 billion.

    Liddy said the company has reduced its exposure to credit default swaps to $1.5 trillion, compared with the original $2.7 trillion, trimming its risk of failure.

  223. Alap says:


    Nice little house in NJ, that hasn’t sold for over 3 years. Suckers.

  224. Shore Guy says:

    “Brandquist wants to know why the pilot — who failed several flight tests before joining the airline — never received hands-on training with the emergency equipment that was activated before the crash.”

    Cost savings?

  225. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [207] sean,

    Here is a somewhat easier link to the WSJ article


    Based on that I will take Zappa’s advice:

    “moving to Montana soon,
    Gonna be a dental floss tycoon”

  226. make money says:

    that is the government spent 34% more then it took in during april 09. This is virtually unheard of due to the massive influx of april tax receipts.


    Everyone wised up and used Timmy’s version of turbo tax. Somnetimes I feel like I’m the only fool that pays a taxes.

  227. John says:

    Exactly, belly up to the bar brotha

    BC Bob says:
    May 13, 2009 at 3:38 pm
    John [223],

    That’s funny. However, you don’t know me.

  228. BC Bob says:


    Just save a seat for me at the green shoots barbeque.

  229. kettle1 says:

    the next bubble? a steak bubble?

    French Find Safety Nets Multiplying in Pastures

    The French, known for their mistrust of banks, are not just stuffing money into mattresses in these anxious days of recession and minuscule interest rates. They are also putting their cash into cows. For Pierre Marguerit, 60, cows make a safe, secure investment, allowing for long-term growth from a renewable resource. The cow contracts are hardly new, but go back to Richard the Lionheart; the French word for livestock, “cheptel,” is the root for “capital.” These are not exactly cash cows. But investment in Mr. Marguerit’s Holsteins will bring a 4 to 5 percent return a year after taxes, he said, based on “natural growth” — the sale of their offspring. That compares to an interest rate now of 0.75 percent on the basic French bank account.


  230. John says:

    Hey I already recovered, where do I send the limo with the grey poupon?

    BC Bob says:
    May 13, 2009 at 4:00 pm

    Just save a seat for me at the green shoots barbeque.

  231. kettle1 says:


    found a video of the current market situation


  232. kettle1 says:

    U.S. credit rating at risk: former agency chief
    “Signs are abound that we are in even worse shape now, and that confidence in America’s ability to gain control of its finances is eroding,” the former comptroller general and current chief executive of Peter G. Peterson Foundation, wrote to the FT.


  233. Escape From NJ says:

    Shore (217)

    We had one of her in my office. Did not last long. Something about low work product trumping eye candy status. Eye candy lasts only about 3 years depending on the partner.

  234. Clotpoll says:

    zieba (135)-

    Looks like a great place for a paintball tournament.

  235. Clotpoll says:

    make (141)-

    I’m swimming in SRS, taken with a 1-handle. Can’t believe I’m saying it, but if the .vix goes toward 40, I’m gonna start day-trading this sucker again.

    .vix, BTW, just took a big jump today.

  236. John says:

    Eye candy either needs to eventualy perform at work or after work. Otherwise it is just BB all day and then you work late doing her work.

  237. Clotpoll says:

    Disclaimer: bi and his asshat blackbox are more reliable than the Oracle at Delphi.

    bi and the barking dogs in my head told me to keep averaging down on SRS.

    It has been proven that people who hear barking dogs in their heads are more reliable than professional investment advisors.

  238. kettle1 says:


    dont forget to send Mrs Wantabe a nice thank you note ;)

    Japanese Housewives Lead $125 Billion Bet That Japan’s Yen Will Depreciate

    Individual investors in Japan increased bets to the highest in six months that the yen will weaken as the economy stabilizes, jumping back into a trade that was all but wiped out last year. Businessmen, housewives and pensioners held 153,326 margin contracts at the end of last month that will make money if the yen declines against currencies ranging from the euro to the Australian and New Zealand dollars, according to the Tokyo Financial Exchange. “Investors believe the worst of the global recession is over and higher-yielding currencies are bottoming out,” said Yoshisada Ishide, who oversees $1.8 billion as a Tokyo-based fund manager at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd., a unit of Japan’s second-biggest investment bank.


  239. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (245)-

    How do you say “sucker” in Japanese?

  240. NJGator says:

    232 Shore – All those “savings” will now probably be wiped out by the payouts on 50 wrongful death settlements, I would think.

  241. kettle1 says:

    Foreclosures Weigh on Freddie Mac: $9.85 Billion Loss

    Freddie Mac reported a loss of $9.85 billion for the first quarter as the costs of home-mortgage defaults mount and said it will need another $6.1 billion of capital from the U.S. Treasury. The government-backed mortgage company, based in McLean, Va., had a loss of $151 million in the year-earlier first quarter. Last week, Freddie’s main rival, Fannie Mae, reported a loss of $23.17 billion for the first quarter and said it would need $19 billion from the Treasury. Federal regulators seized control of Fannie and Freddie, the two main providers of funds for U.S. home mortgages, in September as growing losses ate through their thin layers of capital. The Treasury has agreed to provide as much as $200 billion of capital apiece to Fannie and Freddie by purchasing preferred stock paying 10% dividends. The latest calls for capital by the companies bring Freddie’s total to about $51 billion and Fannie’s to $34 billion.


  242. kettle1 says:

    is this supposed to be comedy??

    Retail sales drop unexpectedly in April
    Retail sales fall for second straight month in April, raising doubts about recovery


  243. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [240] escape

    2nd that. When in DC, I interviewed at a top firm and was received warmly but did not get the job. Later, we hired one of the associates that interviewed me, and she said, be glad you did not get the job as the place sucked.

    How close was I? Everyone voted for me except the senior partner, who voted for the eye candy instead. Result? Within 18 months, eye candy was pushed out and so was the partner.

    Another job I was glad I never got.

  244. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [228] shore

    Married, not dead.

    Besides, even someone on a diet can still peruse the menu.

  245. BC Bob says:

    “Bill Seidman, former FDIC chairman, dies”


  246. Clotpoll says:

    BC (252)-

    The good guys lose another one.

    I used to love watching him blow up the idiot cheerleaders on CNBC.

  247. skep-tic says:

    Tanzillo! [from the WSJ]

    “Staff at the Securities and Exchange Commission have decided to recommend filing civil fraud charges against Angelo Mozilo, the co-founder of Countrywide Financial Corp., according to people familiar with the investigation.”

  248. Clotpoll says:

    skep (254)-

    Made my day.

    He should be punished by being fed to starved-down wolverines.

  249. #254 – It’s insider trading rules that they have him on. It took them 2 years to finally file charges if this is related to him dumping his CFC shares a month before they went belly up.

  250. Shore Guy says:

    As I understand it, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 is designed to help spurr economic activity and includes special depreciation provisions. I have an opportunity to organize a startup company which will not make any profits in 2009; it may not even bill a single dollar this year. The same may be true for 1010. In order to get up and running, it will require capital investment in equipment — likely less than $25,000. Can anyone point me to a source of information about whether such a startup can depreciate a big chunk of that (sau 50%) in the first year under ARRA? I have ben in IRS hell all day and want to read up on this before consulting my tax accountant.

  251. Stu says:

    AIG’s Liddy: Worried About Commercial Real Estate

    By Michael R. Crittenden
    WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)–The head of American International Group Inc. (AIG) told U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday that he is concerned about potential problems with the commercial real-estate market and the company’s CRE portfolio.
    AIG Chief Executive Edward Liddy, appearing before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, said the firm has a substantial real-estate portfolio. He noted that losses in the commercial real-estate market helped cause the company’s large fourth-quarter loss, and said further economic disruption is reason to worry.
    “I’m worried about that portfolio,” Liddy said.
    -By Michael R. Crittenden, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9273; michael.crittenden@dowjones.com

  252. xmonger says:

    Re 252: RIP Bill.

    88 years is a good run.

  253. Shore Guy says:

    “Besides, even someone on a diet can still peruse the menu.”

    I think I am going to expropriate that line.

  254. Shore Guy says:

    “Staff at the Securities and Exchange Commission have decided to recommend filing civil fraud charges against Angelo Mozilo”

    When the FBI gets involved, then it will be something worth cheering.

  255. make money says:

    AIG’s Liddy: Worried About Commercial Real Estate

    I won’t be suprised if Liddy himself picked up a little SRS today.

  256. sastry says:

    Veto #5…

    “awesome, if prices go to zero im buying this summer for sure.”

    Be careful what you wish for. The properties may still be assessed much higher — and the taxes can be very high. Also, I think that if you own the property (versus the bank owning it), you may not be able to get rid of it easily.


  257. make money says:


    You mentined that you were doing some research of the best way to short the S&P 500.

    Holler at your boys here on njrereport so that we can all cash in to bring in some hot dogs on the bbq @ Johns. It seems like it’s gonna be BYO.

  258. nwnj says:

    RE: Cars

    If you want no hassle purchase try carmax. Pick this one up in CT and be done with it.


  259. sastry says:

    Shore… and the classic line:

    “It doesn’t matter where you get your appetite, as long as you eat at home”.


  260. Firestormik says:

    re: Chinese cars
    Just check it out. It’s a tin can with weels

  261. scribe says:

    nom, #115

    there are at least 12 states that want to legalize pot for “medical use” so they can tax it, including NJ

    once the states get involved, they will create enormous new problems

    but the question is: what more are they going to tax, now that they’ve exhausted most of the categories?

    I would look for special surcharges on fast food … “obesity” tax …and all sorts of new nuisance taxes.

  262. sas says:

    “there are at least 12 states that want to legalize pot for “medical use” so they can tax it, including NJ”

    will ///never happen, powers that be don’t want the state to tax ove the cash cow.


  263. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Say it aint so MO, Say it aint So!!!!!

    Angelo Mozilo Receives SEC Wells Notice

    Posted by Tyler Durden at 4:27 PM
    Developing story: WSJ reports that the SEC has decided to file civil fraud charges against Hollywood Tans icon and real estate bubble extraordinaire Angelo Mozilo. Charges could include allegations of insider trading. Interesting if his Bank Of America corner office will receive the same take down treatment as that of Merrill’s Thain in the coming days.

    Even more amusing is the fact that taxpayers will end up having to foot Angelo’s legal bill (as it will be ultimately paid by BofA’s TARP cache), due to his onboarding arrangement with the one, the only, the inimitable Ken Lewis, who is more focused on sending out DMCA C&D notices than preventing his key executives from engaging in insider trading


  264. It’s very frequent that prices and percentage of real estates are getting higher anytime due to great demand. We must keep an eye of it.

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