Sunshine on a cloudy day

From the Home News Tribune:

First-time buyers drive housing market

Simultaneous falling home prices and mortgage rates have made 2009 an historic year, according to real estate experts.

For people who have a sufficient down payment and a secure job, it’s an excellent time to buy a home. But fears about job security and higher interest rates on jumbo mortgages are holding many buyers back throughout Central Jersey, according to Jeffrey Otteau, president of Otteau Evaluation Group in East Brunswick.

Quantifying the drop in home prices in any market is difficult because they are a result of several factors. The homes that are selling now are often the smaller, less expensive homes, whereas a few years ago, when credit was easier to get and more people were confident about their jobs, they were buying larger homes. The average price of a home in any given community probably reflects not only a price decline, but that more smaller homes are selling while the largest homes languish on the market.

Otteau said comparing average prices from one year to the next does not always give a completely accurate picture of the market. But he shared some statistics for the first quarters of 2008 and 2009 as a tool to begin to understand what is happening.

In Middlesex County, he said, the average price of a home fell from $370,508 in 2008 to $305,297 in 2009, a drop of 18 percent.

In Union County, the average price in 2008 was $445,685 in 2008, but fell to $384,188 this year, down 14 percent.

In Somerset County, the average price of a home fell from $449,683 in 2008 to $408,337 this year, down 9 percent.

Otteau pointed out that in 2006, the affordability index in New Jersey was 81 percent. That meant that a person making the median income in New Jersey could only afford 81 percent of the median-priced home. Today, the affordability index is at 111 percent, meaning someone making the median income can afford to buy a home worth 111 percent of the median-priced home.

“New Jersey will likely be one of the first states to emerge from the housing recession,” Otteau said, “because of our high income and our high-density population. As fears of job loss reduce and credit for mortgage money loosens, we will see more buyers. Also, our state has fewer foreclosures than many other states. I see us beginning to pull out of the housing recession within the next 12 months.”

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

259 Responses to Sunshine on a cloudy day

  1. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    Motor Vehicle Commission offices close for furlough

    New Jerseyans can’t get driver’s licenses today, but can get their motor vehicles inspected.

    Motor Vehicle Commission offices across the state are closed as 2,406 employees take a state-mandated furlough.

    Vehicle inspection centers are not affected by the furloughs because they are privately operated.

    The unpaid day off is designed to help cut costs and balance the state budget in the recession.

    MVC employees are planning to protest outside offices in Newark.

  2. grim says:

    From Metro International:

    Deals to be had down the Shore

    Business owners of shore destinations like Morey’s Piers in Wildwood, N.J., might say the only thing they have to worry about is the weather, but with only a few days until Memorial Day Weekend, businesses have lowered prices to lure you and your family this summer.

    Jersey Shore officials said they are expecting more people this summer than during the boom years of the last decade, but pointed to special offers as a way they plan on getting people to visit.

    “We have taken a look at prices and a lot of businesses have not raised but lowered their prices,” Greater Ocean City Chamber of Commerce executive director Michele Gillian said last week.

    “In this type of economy, we think people will stay closer to home,” Morey’s spokeswoman Denise Beckson said this weekend as the pre-Memorial Day rush began.

  3. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    New Jersey Revolution football team sidelined by recession, vows to return next year

    New Jersey’s professional indoor football franchise has been forced to punt away the rest of this season, a victim of the 2009 economy and some East Coast logistics, team officials said last week.

    But the owners of the New Jersey Revolution vowed to return to action next spring at their home field, the Mennen Sports Arena in Morris County, to play a full schedule of games against what they hope will be a full complement of regional opponents.

    The Revolution had to bow out of the Continental Indoor Football League this season after most of the league’s eastern teams folded, leaving the Revolution as the only remaining team in the Atlantic Division, with the nearest competitor in Wheeling, W.Va.

  4. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Soak the Rich, Lose the Rich

    With states facing nearly $100 billion in combined budget deficits this year, we’re seeing more governors than ever proposing the Barack Obama solution to balancing the budget: Soak the rich. Lawmakers in California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York and Oregon want to raise income tax rates on the top 1% or 2% or 5% of their citizens. New Illinois Gov. Patrick Quinn wants a 50% increase in the income tax rate on the wealthy because this is the “fair” way to close his state’s gaping deficit.

    Mr. Quinn and other tax-raising governors have been emboldened by recent studies by left-wing groups like the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities that suggest that “tax increases, particularly tax increases on higher-income families, may be the best available option.” A recent letter to New York Gov. David Paterson signed by 100 economists advises the Empire State to “raise tax rates for high income families right away.”

    Here’s the problem for states that want to pry more money out of the wallets of rich people. It never works because people, investment capital and businesses are mobile: They can leave tax-unfriendly states and move to tax-friendly states.

  5. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Fitch Slashes Prime RMBS to Junk

    Fitch Ratings downgraded multiple Citigroup Mortgage RMBS series from triple-A to junk today after placing them on negative rating watch. The ratings agency made the downgrades as part of an ongoing review of prime and Alt-A RMBS transactions as the housing downturn continues to unwind.

    Many of the vintage 07 series involved in Citigroup’s RMBS downgrades migrated to double-C from triple-A but several made the leap to triple-C from triple-A.

    The agency also slashed five series of Bear Stearns RMBS from triple-A to double-C, and one from triple-A to triple-C.

    Bank of America Funding’s RMBS on the most part maintained its triple-A rating, although a single series previously placed on negative ratings plunged from triple-A to triple-C.

  6. crossroads says:

    I guess Otteau doesn’t see property tax as a problem. I also wonder if he uses tax in his affordability formula

  7. grim says:

    From the NY Times:

    Long Island Foreclosures Rise, With No End in Sight

    ON a recent weekday morning, Olive M. Thompson sat in the living room of her small, four-bedroom Cape-style home here, surrounded by cardboard boxes packed with her family’s belongings. She was waiting for the sheriff that the bank’s lawyers had promised would soon come.

    It was nearly six years ago that Ms. Thompson, her husband and their children moved from East New York to the home they purchased for $215,000 here on Cumberland Avenue.

    “I was excited, coming from a two-bedroom apartment with four children,” said Ms. Thompson, 45, who is a nursing assistant at a hospital in Bethpage and who put $28,000 down on the house and took out a subprime loan. “This was a dream.”

    In early 2005, the payments on Ms. Thompson’s adjustable-rate mortgage increased to $2,200 a month from $1,650, and the refinancing to a fixed-rate mortgage that she said the bank assured her would materialize did not. Then, later that same year, her monthly payment jumped to $3,000. Meanwhile, she said, she lost her job and the bills started to pile up. Her troubles were exacerbated the following year by a $10,000 adjustable-rate loan that she took against the house for a much-needed repair.

    “It was the fine print,” said Ms. Thompson, who declared Chapter 13 bankruptcy that year. “I didn’t read it.”

  8. grim says:

    #6 – No.

    Most use methodologies similar to the NAR:

    http://www.realtor.org/wps/wcm/connect/df29350048be3841b560ff0c8bc1f2ed/Formulas_HAI.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=df29350048be3841b560ff0c8bc1f2ed

    Which would overstate affordability in higher property tax areas.

  9. #7 – I wonder why this woman ever went with an ARM? She had 10% down and the rates were low in 2K3, not as low as an ARM would have allowed for, but she would have avoided problems with resets. She seems to have wanted to stay in the house for as long as possible, so she wasn’t going to use the ARM to game rates and sell in a few years.
    There’s a lot of details missing in the story (her and the husband’s incomes) but there’s no reason why they should have been in an ARM program. I understand she most likely only looked at the proposed monthly payments, saw it was cheapest with a 3/1 ARM and went with that… but… well, I’m answering my own questions there.

    Also;
    Dear photographer for the piece,
    You have a tilt-shift lens. I get it. Every 3rd shot though?

  10. Shore Guy says:

    She did not read the fine print? Humm, it is hard to imagine how THAT could ever come back to haaunt her. This is just another case of the imprudent getting a lesson in capitalism.

    If one does not understand a contract, one should not sign the contract. If one does not understand it but feels a need to move forward, one shoukd pay a competent lawyer to look after one’s interests. It is not difficult to be prudent.

  11. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    If You’re Not Petrified of Ojama, You’re Not Paying Attention

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/05/if-youre-not-petrified-of-obama-youre.html

  12. gary says:

    “New Jersey will likely be one of the first states to emerge from the housing recession,” Otteau said, “because of our high income and our high-density population. As fears of job loss reduce and credit for mortgage money loosens, we will see more buyers. Also, our state has fewer foreclosures than many other states. I see us beginning to pull out of the housing recession within the next 12 months.”

    BZZZZZZZZ!!!! So sorry, please try again!

  13. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    It’a a good thing the market is forward looking because given the P/E ratio of the S&P they must be looking forward to 2050:

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/normalizing-earnings/

  14. gary says:

    With states facing nearly $100 billion in combined budget deficits this year, we’re seeing more governors than ever proposing the Barack Obama solution to balancing the budget: Soak the rich.

    Sounds good to me! I’d rather be back at work but since the liberals* feel my pain, they can keep paying me to stay home, surf the net and hang out.

  15. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    May 17, 2009
    Didn’t Get the “Green Shoots” Memo
    The current administration has been spinning — er, working — hard to convince everyone that our economic troubles are more-or-less behind us.

    Like other politicians before them, they have relied on the propaganda technique of repeating fantasies and outright falsehoods over and over again in the hope that they are eventually accepted by the masses as reality.

    http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2009/05/didnt-get-the-green-shoots-memo.html

  16. Seneca says:

    What are the income limits on FHA loans?

    What is the income limit on the 8k tax credit for first time buyers?

  17. confused in nj says:

    Pelosi, Corzine & Bloomberg have a simple solution to the Tax & Income problem, raise Cigarette Tax to One Million Dollars per pack.

  18. Joey says:

    Anyone have anecdotes from open houses this weekend?

    At one open house the realtor asked us to give our real names (not fake ones) on the sign in sheet.

    Also, she said that the sellers already had an offer for purchase and were only looking for backup offers (then why is it still listed for rent also?)

    Finally, for the trifecta, she said that all her money is invested in real estate so she didn’t lose any money on the stock market crash.

    I guess the bad realtors haven’t been culled from the herd yet.

  19. stan says:

    ‘ Many of the vintage 07 series’

    Ahh a wonderful vintage,a little dry however. I need some Fava Beans…..

  20. confused in nj says:

    MLS# 2676889 ($339,900). This is a very nice Warren County Home priced under Property Assessment.

  21. BC Bob says:

    “Finally, for the trifecta, she said that all her money is invested in real estate so she didn’t lose any money on the stock market crash.”

    So, she avoided the blitzkrieg. However, she failed to mention that the ground assault was just as aggressive.

  22. Joey says:

    Bob,

    I’d actually feel bad for the lady if she weren’t trying to make me a bagholder.

  23. grim says:

    So, she avoided the blitzkrieg. However, she failed to mention that the ground assault was just as aggressive.

    PTSD

    You sure it was a woman? Maybe the Realtor went Klinger in an attempt to get out of the service?

  24. Clotpoll says:

    You know open houses are toast when Weichert offices get rid of their balloons and helium tanks.

  25. gary says:

    Another house with nothing to offer, by sellers who are feeble-minded and uncomplicated lead by a tour guide who only “handles” properties with higher potential “earnings.” If you need to me to translate, just ask.

    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/55-Robert-Ct_Wyckoff_NJ_07481_1108399976

  26. 3b says:

    #12 gary: We are finally just getting into the houisng recession in NJ, and he thinks we will be coming out in the next 12 months, due to our high income? High income from where?

    I also seem to remember many of his articles over the past few years saying all was well, no housing bubbble in NJ etc..

  27. Joey says:

    24)

    Also, up until recently the weichert website gave a (mostly) comprehensive list of open houses in my area. Then a few weeks ago they removed the other agencies’ listings from their open house report. I guess I’ll just have to stop going to open houses.

  28. Sean says:

    re #11) Mish is dreaming if he thinks there is going to be prosecution of Paulson or Bernake or anyone else involved in this mess anytime soon.

    We might get some show trials of some low hanging fruit like the mortgage fraudsters but if the States go after anyone else higher up on the food chain, the case will end up being transferred to Federal Court where we will see it dismissed on the grounds of sovereign immunity.

  29. 3b says:

    #25 gary: Perhaps the one listed below will work for you, just reduced from $452,777 to 448,777!

    Now keep in mind the OLP on this gem was for 468k, so at 448,777 it just has to sell.

    It is lcoated on the corner of historic Kinderkamack Rd. across from an abandoned gas station.

    http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2922149&id=999999

  30. Overtaxed says:

    Now, for some REAL entitlement reform, via e-mail:

    THE JOB – URINE TEST
    (Whoever wrote this one deserves a HUGE pat on the back!)

    Like most folks in this country, I have a job. I work, they pay me. I pay my taxes and the government distributes my taxes as it sees fit. In order to get that paycheck in my case, I am required to pass a random urine test (with which I have no problem). What I do have a problem with is the distribution of my taxes to people who don’t have to pass a urine test.
    So, here is my Question: Shouldn’t one have to pass a urine test to get a welfare check because I have to pass one to earn it for them?

    Please understand, I have no problem with helping people get back on their feet. I do, on the other hand, have a problem with helping someone sitting on their ass – doing drugs, while I work. . . . Can you imagine how much money each state would save if people had to pass a urine test to get a public assistance check?

    I guess we could title that program, ‘Urine or You’re Out’

  31. Clotpoll says:

    overtaxed (31)-

    If that happens, who will take all the drugs that the gubmint secretly wants consumed…and that they and their corrupt patrons profit from?

  32. Shore Guy says:

    War on Poverty
    War on Drugs
    War on Terror

    It seems our politicians only believe the citizens of this nation will go along with their plans if it is a described as a war. Perhaps that will give them cover to have a War on Excess savings, or some other soak-the-“rich” fiasco.

    Heaven forbid we should have a War on Excessive Government Spending. After all, “Them’s fignt’n words.”

    In the words of Berkley Breathed, “Just fork over the dough, Mack.”

  33. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [31] overtaxed,

    That reminds me of a cell conversation I overheard last week on NJT. Young woman was coaching someone who had applied for a position (I think as a teacher) and had to take a drug test. I think the person that was to take the test was also a family member, but not sure.

    Sister told the listener that to trick the test, you take a clean sample in a condom, which you have knotted and pocketed. Then you simply dump it in the cup when you are in the john. Sister said that she could verify that it worked.

    Thing that almost knocked me off my seat though, was the following line about getting a clean sample: “well, she could ask her momma; she said she would do it for her.”

  34. Victorian says:

    Holy Cr@P!!!!

    Indian markets up 17% in 1 Day!! Closed trading due to circuit breaker.

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Sensex-crosses-14k-days-trading-halted/articleshow/4545400.cms

    Sastry – Looks like they were quite pleased with your house purchase :)

  35. Cindy says:

    Saltry, Did you get a place? Congratulations…

  36. Stu says:

    “Indian markets up 17% in 1 Day!!”

    Now that’s pant-up demand!

  37. Cindy says:

    (11) HEHE – Loved listening to this guy talk – Davidowitz. Favorite part:

    “We’re now in Barack Obama’s world where money goes into the most inefficient parts of the economy and we’re bailing out everyone…”

    Good point. Just imagine if the funds were used to stimulate – investment/expansion in proven sectors of the economy instead of being dumped into losing propositions. You gotta wonder if that would have helped stem the job loss spiral. The infrastructure promises seem to be taking ages.

  38. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [4] grim,

    Further to your state issue and expatriation to avoid confiscatory taxation.

    The One is also looking to re-write the Code by new initiatives on treatment of intangibles, transfer taxes, and cross-border business (usually between affiliates of multinationals).

    This is an oversimplification, but O-drama wants to tax transactions btwn commonly controlled affiliates if the affiliates are in different countries. This is a major departure from current law (yes, law) and would essentially punish U.S. multinational corporations.
    This was packaged as a regulatory clarification, not a change in actual law, so congressional approval would not be necessary.

    But some of the quotes on this “clarification” went as follows:

    “This is a complete change in law and drastically reduces the ability of U.S. taxpayers to incorporate a foreign business tax-free,” Zollo said.

    David Bowen of Grant Thornton LLP in Washington, D.C., agreed. “Clarifications belong in regulations,” he said. “This is a statutory change. In no way is this a clarification; that is clear from the prior legislative history.”

    Ward Connolly of Fenwick & West in Mountain View, Calif., also objected to the use of “clarify,” saying the word “obviously in recent years has come to mean a 180-degree turn.”

    FWIW, I maintain that changes that effectively tax intracompany transfers and establishment of foreign subsdiaries simply because they cross a border will mean that any business operating in multiple jurisidictions must treat the US as the hostile tax jurisdiction and re-arrange their businesses accordingly. For some, this will mean it makes more sense to be a Bermuda corporation than a U.S. one.

    So before the law goes into effect, that giant sucking sound you hear will be billions in capital going to foreign countries as multinationals restructure their affiliate arrangement and put assets or themselves offshore.

    Bottom line: It won’t raise significant revenue, but it will cause more business to be conducted in other countries, and will likely result in a net loss of jobs and tax dollars.

  39. james says:

    Steve Lonegan is my only hope. Now back to cutting my wrists.

  40. Stu says:

    Davidowitz is on Bloomberg regularly. He sounds exactly like a rabbi giving a sermon. He’s really a trip, especially when talking about company earnings that come in lack luster. He’s a huge fan of McDonald’s and Walmart as he specializes in retail.

  41. Stu says:

    Davidowitz is on Bloomberg regularly. He sounds exactly like a rabbi giving a sermon. He’s really a trip, especially when talking about company earnings that come in lack luster. He’s a huge fan of MickeyD’s and Walmart as he specializes in retail.

  42. commercial real estate consultant says:

    Does anyone know if any of Otteau’s predictions have been correct? As far as I know they have all been completely wrong. Quite honestly, why does anyone even quote this guy anymore. After the refi’s come to an end, the bulk of this guy’s business is going to rely on home sales.

  43. Cindy says:

    http://www.thebigmoney.com/articles/judgments/2009/04/24/next-financial-explosion?page=full

    I tried this weekend to search for some answers regarding CMBS. I found this older article that sees hope with REITS and the PPIP. Basically saying the strong REITS with the cash could end up making it a stronger market.

    Just wondering what going on there.

    Have a great day all.

  44. Seneca says:

    Clot or grim, who do you recommend to your clients for FHA loans? Recommendations? JB has my email.

  45. Sean says:

    More ammo for those that are getting lots of pressure to buy now or be priced out forever.

    Fitch Ratings calls bottom in about 18 months.

    Fitch Ratings says bottom is NOT in for New York and New Jersey.

    “New York and New Jersey are expected to see further declines of 11% and 20% respectively.”

    “Fitch believes that most of the home price correction will occur in the next eighteen months, with prices exhibiting more stability beginning in late 2010”

    http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?&&&ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20090513005695&newsLang=en&ref=patrick.net

  46. danzud says:

    Today’s board so far is why this is one of my favorite places. Grim posts an article about how rich people are leaving NJ due to high taxes and someone else quotes a housing guy saying no need to worry about housing prices in NJ going down farther because we have so many rich people. This site has saved me so much money.

  47. gary says:

    New York and New Jersey are expected to see further declines of 11% and 20% respectively.

    Dear sellers,

    tick… tick… tick… tick…

  48. gary says:

    danzud [45],

    You should really believe the housing guy as they are the true professionls who research things and have your best interest at heart.

  49. John says:

    But where are the rich people going? NY, NJ and CT are all high tax now and the few lucky remaining ones with high pay on wall street can commute too far with a job that is 10 hours a day.

    Well I got offered a job as a full time Finance professor this morning at CUNY. I wanted adjunct but they needed full time, now that is a turn of events, see there is a job out there!! Trouble is schools want in the business program MBAs with good business experience in Accounting, Finance or Wall Street, yea top pay is like 100K and you start at 60K. Good luck with that. I guess adjunct is fun to get teaching bug out of you but full time is for semi retired and expired unemployement crowd. Lucky for Cuny once 2010 rolls along and the wall street folks unemployment that was extended to one year starts to expire they maybe able to get ex GS VPS with an MBA for 60K a year. Now that is some green shoots for CUNY!!!

  50. zieba says:

    John,
    There’s some nice tail in that vertical Baruch campus for you to chase after.
    You should consider it.

    We could start an under/over pool on how long before harassment charges are brought against you.

  51. John says:

    Ziebra, herass, herface, whats the difference.

    Bond of day, however they are getting rarer and rarer.
    CIT GROUP INC SER 6.000% 04/01/2036
    Price (Ask) 48.500
    Yield to Worst (Ask) 12.863%
    125581AY4

  52. Thundaar says:

    Truth is stranger than fiction-Lingerie Bowl
    http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/44909542.html

  53. Marie says:

    Long-time lurker, occasional poster. Thanks for all the informed comments. I learn so much about caution in the midst of hype.

    What is the most efficient way to find a rental for a week or so at the shore? Googling pulls a million hits, and there’s no sense of what’s legit or worthwhile. Thanks.

  54. DL says:

    Meanwhile:
    “CEOs from several regional banks around the country told CNBC they are seeing some signs of “green shoots” in the housing market. ”

    Does anybody take these people seriously annymore?

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/30805746

  55. Thundaar says:

    Me and the wifey picked up the Honda CRV this weekend at Madison Honda…the Exl with Navi after destination and handling ($670) got them “down” to $26,888. Allegedly under invoice. I think we did pretty good on pricing. Used as recommended by you guys Edmunds, car.com and AAA.

  56. 3b says:

    #53 DL: I would say that in certain regions such as cal, and Fla there probably are, with prices there having fallen 40 and 50% I am nto surprised.

    However, it is not applicable in our area. The Spring selling season is over in about a month, and the numbers are dismal as grim’s April sales numbers last week indicated.

    Even in the areas where green shots have been alleged to have been seen, increasing unemployment could quickly turn those green shoots brown.

  57. Alexnyc88 says:

    Went to look for houses in Fort Lee again this weekend. One particular house we saw a year ago (corner of 7th and Myrtle). Seller wanted 670 a year ago. The house was taken off the market during winter. Now, there are tenants there (realtor says they are paying $3.5K rent, which i totally dont believe). Anyways his asking price today is 640K (lol). We offered 500K for the house. Ofcourse they didnt accept. I guess Fort Lee will be in denial for a while. (Taxes on this property are $9900 per year btw based on MLS listing). I also know that a friends family bought exactly the same house on Franklin in 2001 for 425K.

  58. danzud says:

    Gary,

    Yes! Of course! Of course! I should be glad to contribute to the BMW-driving, Starbuck-latte crowd. After all, spending is key to our economic health. Not only should I buy a one bedroom townhouse for $450k, I should buy rental units too!!!

  59. John says:

    Whitney who, your day in the sun is done just like your looks, it is a bull market baby!!

    Bank stocks could triple over next five years, says Rochdale
    09:53 a.m. 05/18/2009 Provided By Fly On The Wall

    Rochdale’s Dick Bove thinks that banks have excessive capital, excessive liquidity, and excessive reserves. He thinks the banks may have “explosive earnings growth” if the economy recovers. Bove believes that banks are duplicating the 1980-1988 period, when they increased their capital and reserves while pretax, pre provision earnings were growing rapidly under the radar.

  60. danzud says:

    Their interests in me somehow coincide with my working six days a week to pay for my mortgage while they drive around and look at people’s houses when they are not at their shore houses.

  61. HEHEHE says:

    Yeah Dickie Bove, perhaps the most discredited bank analyst in the country.

  62. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (38)-

    Yep. It’s gonna take a while for all the charlatans and leeches to formulate their plans for stealing and/or misallocating all that stim money.

    “The infrastructure promises seem to be taking ages.”

  63. Clotpoll says:

    Stu (40)-

    Davidowitz is y-hw-h.

    He’s also a riot. The guy could do standup. Too bad his schtick would be the end of the US economy.

  64. John says:

    To big to fail is what O, Tim and Ben were preaching back in March when these bonds were going for 45-50 cents on a dollar. Basically they told you default risk was off the table. Two months later people who listened double their money or have the choice of holding to maturity at well over double the coupon. The O-Mighty one telegraphed this move to everyone who was down in their 401K or trying to build up his deposit on a house. He was giving away free money and had few takers. I believed the president of the USA was right over Whitney and Minyan stock gossip sites, not exactly a big roll of the dice.

    172967EM9 CITIGROUP INC 6.125 11/21/17 7.739(M) 90.083

    172967EH0 CITIGROUP INC 6.000 08/15/17 7.791(M) 89.251

    172967ES6 CITIGROUP INC NT 6.125 05/15/18 7.822(M) 89.192

    172967EV9 CITIGROUP INC 8.500 05/22/19 8.112(W) 102.625

  65. Clotpoll says:

    seneca (43)-

    Grim can give you my e-mail…

  66. Clotpoll says:

    John (50)-

    That bond is a good definition of “butter face”.

  67. SG says:

    “New Jersey will likely be one of the first states to emerge from the housing recession,” Otteau said, “Also, our state has fewer foreclosures than many other states.”

    It seems, NYTimes research thinks otherwise.

    In New Jersey, Dreams of a Better Life Dashed by Foreclosure Crisis

    The number of residential mortgages with payments more than 90 days past due, a strong precursor to foreclosure, has grown much worse across the state since the start of 2007, when the interest rates on many of these high-cost mortgages began adjusting upward, making them unaffordable for many borrowers.

    The percentage of mortgages 90 days past due was above 3 percent in only two New Jersey counties — Essex and Cumberland — in 2006. At the time, that delinquency rate was more than double the state average. That grew to 8 counties in 2007 and 17 in 2008; in March, all but one of the state’s 21 counties — Hunterdon — had delinquency rates of 3 percent or more.

    Among states, New Jersey had the 10th-highest mortgage delinquency rate in March, according to preliminary data from First American CoreLogic, which collects data representing an estimated 85 percent of all outstanding mortgages nationwide. New Jersey’s rate, 5.9 percent, was a full percentage point higher than those of New York and Connecticut, but about eight points lower than top-ranked Florida’s.

  68. Clotpoll says:

    DL (53)-

    Anybody ever stop to think that these regional banks have way too much money tied up in non-recourse lending to the goofs who are building all this unnecessary, unwanted housing?

    When these projects are finished, they are DOA. Last guy out tosses the keys to the bank. Hell, in CA, this negative feedback loop now gets neatly closed with a bulldozer.

    Just another dung-covered sas bamboo shoot.

  69. Clotpoll says:

    John (58)-

    Dick Bove is a known psychotic.

  70. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [61] HEHEHE,

    as evidenced by the fact that Bove has changed his address yet again. I can’t keep up with this guy. Does his business cards all say “To be Announced” for employer?

  71. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [50] zieba

    I love it! Put me down for $100 in the under.

  72. #52 – Marie – Have you tried craigslist yet? They seem to have quite a bit listed.
    Clicky here.

  73. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [49] John

    Florida.

    That said, if you are tied to NY/NJ/CT, you are probably not “rich” anymore. Besides, it is the exception that proves the rule, and if you think there are wholesale movements of “rich” folk, you aren’t paying attention.

    Not all “rich” will move because some must remain. Others won’t be so stung, or will be like the folks paying 50K in property tax because they love Princeton so much they won’t move.

    But moving to lower tax is rational behavior, and even a move across the Delaware would save beaucoup bucks for retired folks.

    Finally, what you would see more of is business restructuring and “virtual” moves (which is why these states impose residency requirements) to remove income-producing assets or investments from NJ/NY/CT tax jurisdiction. That is actually quite easily accomplished and drives state tax authorities nuts.

  74. John says:

    So has Whitney, Oppenheimer perfectly timed her departure!

    Traitor nom deplume says:
    May 18, 2009 at 11:11 am
    [61] HEHEHE,

    as evidenced by the fact that Bove has changed his address yet again. I can’t keep up with this guy. Does his business cards all say “To be Announced” for employer?

  75. 3b says:

    gary Here is a nice short sale for you just listed at 449K.

    It last sold in September of 2005 for 556K!!! Prior sale in late 199k @245K, taxes are $9500

    http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2921625&id=999999

  76. 3b says:

    #73 John: seriously dude, Bove, you declien further every day.

  77. Doyle says:

    A McMansion that sold for $901k in Wyckoff in 2003 just closed on 5/8/09 for $890k. This should start the next leg down for the glut of million dollar + homes in that town. Will be interesting…

  78. John says:

    Bottom line, I hate to say is NJ/LI was not as overbuilt as FL, CA or AZ so we won’t get that level of price declines. Out faith is tied to unemployment and employed people feeling secure in job. This recession is in the 9th inning, but just like Hellen Keller when she accidently tried to read the waffle iron people who are burnt are slow to jump back in. The burnt folks will stew for 1-3 years after recession ends before they move into housing. And as usual will have perfectly bad timing, after all these are the same folks who got out of stocks in March 2009 and jumped into housing in Spring 2006.

  79. veto that says:

    “Well I got offered a job as a full time Finance professor this morning at CUNY”

    John, that sounds exciting, i say go for it, what school? CUNY is huge, biggest city system in nation, there is big difference in admission standards between the schools though so make sure its not queens college, medgar evers, etc. or you’ll be teaching more esl than capm…

  80. John says:

    Lets see banks are borrowing at near zero and doing loans 5 to 10 times that while unloading most of risk through TALF or Fannie and Freddie. The game is set up so they can earn their way out of it, meanwhile the next eight quarters of earning will be compared to 2009 and 2010. It can and will happen. Big money center banks make money, they are not wamus or countrywides that only make money off mortgages, that is only a small part of the equation.

    3b says:
    May 18, 2009 at 11:24 am
    #73 John: seriously dude, Bove, you declien further every day.

  81. Sean says:

    lol – John as a professor, hhahahaha!

    I can see it now, it’s spring time on the CUNY campus in 2012 and Professor John is off on a tangent about how to avoid the dreaded disease that affect many office employees. While demonstrating the effects of gravity on office workers Professor John’s mind wanders and so does his hands, that is until a young female co-ed yells out!

    “Professor John please remove your hands from my posterior, I don’t need a lesson on how gravity affects secretary spread!”

    LoL!

  82. John says:

    They wanted me at Baruch, but I want to do community college, more work at Baruch for same pay, plus those kids are spoilt brats who whine for A’s. Don’t need headaches. Just want mushroom like CC students.

    veto that says:
    May 18, 2009 at 11:27 am
    “Well I got offered a job as a full time Finance professor this morning at CUNY”

    John, that sounds exciting, i say go for it, what school? CUNY is huge, biggest city system in nation, there is big difference in admission standards between the schools though so make sure its not queens college, medgar evers, etc. or you’ll be teaching more esl than capm…

  83. John says:

    Sean I believe in a Hard A.

  84. Alexnyc88 says:

    Can someone do history on ML#: 2921631. This is the house i mentioned earlier. Is there a way to get price history like i see some of you posting here? Thanks in advance!!!

  85. Doyle says:

    Grim-Rich-Anyone,

    Can you possibly provide an address/update on NJMLS 2646322? It disappeared from NJMLS recently.

    Thanks

  86. Stu says:

    Marie,

    Best bet is to visit a realtor in the area which you plan to rent, although you are a little less likely to find a bargain that way. We usually check the craigslist ads as well and if we don’t find what we need, then go the realtor route.

  87. chicagofinance says:

    John says:
    May 18, 2009 at 11:31 am
    They wanted me at Baruch, but I want to do community college, more work at Baruch for same pay, plus those kids are spoilt brats who whine for A’s. Don’t need headaches. Just want mushroom like CC students.

    JJ: I can’t think of a better way for ample access to latina tiny-hiney….

  88. chicagofinance says:

    John says:
    May 18, 2009 at 11:33 am
    Sean I believe in a Hard A.

    JJ: I am not going to touch this one….

  89. chicagofinance says:

    You need to read beyond the headlines…..is this really bullish? WTF?

    Lowe’s Cos., the second-largest U.S. home-improvement retailer, posted first-quarter earnings that fell less than analysts estimated, helped by sales of more- profitable shrubs and flowers. The shares gained.

  90. chicagofinance says:

    To be clear: this reads similar to WalMart kicking butt right now….

    chicagofinance says:
    May 18, 2009 at 11:45 am
    You need to read beyond the headlines…..is this really bullish? WTF?

    Lowe’s Cos., the second-largest U.S. home-improvement retailer, posted first-quarter earnings that fell less than analysts estimated, helped by sales of more- profitable shrubs and flowers. The shares gained.

  91. 3b says:

    #77 John: last week you were stating that we are just starting to see the serious price declines in NNJ/LI, today we will not see the declines like we have seen in other areas because there was not the same overbuilding, and I assume in your mind that is all that counts.

    For the last couple of months you were saying the recession is over, now it is not over, but rather in the 9th. Can you tell us if it is the top or bottom?

    Nobody can jump back into housing if they do not have or job, or fear loisng the one they have. It is as simple as that grasshopper.

    What is going to drive house prices up in our area? Your silly cheerleading?

  92. John says:

    Trouble is they plump quicker than a purdue

    JJ: I can’t think of a better way for ample access to latina tiny-hiney….

  93. zieba says:

    John you crack me up.

  94. Stu says:

    John…is your last name Thain?

  95. jcer says:

    Stu that would make a lot of sense!

  96. we says:

    Indian markets up 17% in 1 Day!! Closed trading due to circuit breaker.
    ———————————–
    Most of us here can’t afford a decent place in South Mumbai.

  97. John says:

    3B, I am not pro housing, I hope housing falls, trouble is even at 8% unemployment 92% have jobs. Plus unemployment rates for married couples with a masters degree is a lot lower than 8%. 95% of people in my brothers country clubs have jobs and home they like, they are not going to firesale them out, sure divorce, death, bankruptcy will happen and their will be bargains, but in the truly tony towns it won’t be widespread. Last time RTC in 1992 had very little homes in really good towns. I want to trade up to a good town, I see modest declines, but I don’t see homes currently 1.4 million going for 750K.

  98. Nicholas says:

    John,

    I know a few people who still have their jobs but they have recieved a net pay loss anyway.

    Sister-in-Law is down to 83% of last years pay as a stylist in a local salon. She is working the same amount of hours but tips are down. Although I don’t have statistics her pay is probably down the same amount from 2007-2008.

  99. zieba says:

    John,
    I think the (long standing) argument is that some lost jobs at the income level you’re talking about are not coming back.

  100. 3b says:

    #96 John: the same factors with of course less over building that caused the housing bubble elsewherre in the country. caused it in our area as well.

    You friends not giving their hosues away at fire sale prices meand nothing. I owuld think that at this point the understand that it was a bubble,and the peak prices their houses were worth, was nothing more than an unsustainable fantasty.

    You keep mentioning unemployment as not mattering, well it does. First off the rate is lamost 95, not 8,a nd we will certainly see double digits by year end the latest.

    When does unemployment matter, can we say who cares if it is at 20% because 80% still have jobs? Can we push it as high as 50%, and still say it does not matter because 50% of people are employed?

    You also seem to believe that there are an unlimited amount of double income MBA/JD wielding couples out there who will have no problem paying high prices, and high taxes.

    And of course an unending supply of jobs to absorb these people.

  101. Clotpoll says:

    John (77)-

    Please try explaining this to the developers of 55+ seniors’ crapshacks out in the Pineys.

    “Bottom line, I hate to say is NJ/LI was not as overbuilt as FL, CA or AZ so we won’t get that level of price declines.”

  102. Clotpoll says:

    sean (80)-

    I can just see John starting every class with his bond of the day tips.

  103. John says:

    Double Income, I have never met a wife who works at my brothers country club. Who would be there to hand them their three olive martini when they got home after a long day of shuffling paper and drinking starbucks.

    You also seem to believe that there are an unlimited amount of double income MBA/JD wielding couples out there who will have no problem paying high prices, and high taxes.

  104. BC Bob says:

    3b [99],

    Real unemployment, U-6, close to 16%. Approx 25M, essentially unemployed. What’s more troubling, U-6 is up over 70%, yoy.

  105. John says:

    Hey those bozos want to know if I am published, unless this site or Forum counts I am in trouble.

  106. 3b says:

    #102 John: Double Income. It was you who made the comment about double income people paying high prices etc.

    Not that it matters, but you continue to contradict yourself.

  107. daddyo says:

    I’m not sure what the questions about CMBS were, but if you repost them in this thread, I’ll see if I can answer any. I’m a CMBS/ABS trader.

    Also, for shore rentals, we found our summer place at http://www.capemayrentals.com. We found a REALLY nice place, and back-bid by about 30%, and the owner took the offer. I think we should have asked for more. The place is amazing though.

  108. 3b says:

    #104 BC bob: Yes. But John uses the CNBC quoted numbers,and the same line about 90% having jobs that Kudlow and his cheerleading guests use.

  109. sastry says:

    Victoria/Cindy:

    Yes, we are now under contract. It was an REO property which we (mainly my wife) were persistently following — bank and the seller agent were very irritated, but realized we were serious. So, when the occupant moved, we got to look at it quickly, hit the bid (should thank Clot for his coaching on how not to lose a bid), and the bank accepted it very soon. Over the weekend, it seems there were many people that wanted to see the place — we’d not have survived a bidding war. The ask was more or less the upper limit of what we could have afforded reasonably. It’s a really lucky break, and I owe it to many people. Grim for posting the list of REO pages (where I was searching to find which bank owned another property and stumbled on this), clot for the coaching and for the finance guy, shore for his comments on “it’s worth what you think it’s worth”, the bank and realtor for taking us seriously… any one thing and this wouldn’t have happened. Even my wife’s eye infection without which we would have not driven to the clinic in that area (after which we went to one open house and saw a low priced listing). Touch wood, it’s a very lucky break…

    My main contribution was the overriding of my wife’s suggestion for bidding 10-15k below the ask (and I should thank Clot for that wisdom).

    It may not be worth much but there is no sad story with the property — just a reasonably well off person taking a gamble and losing a bit of money (or even making a bit of money since the person took a huge refi).

    S

  110. 3b says:

    #100 clot: I think the listing below would qualify as crapshack.

    http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2920986&id=999999

  111. sastry says:

    Victoria: Some of my family members in India are upset that the Congress Party won. Some usual BS that corruption will vanish if the other parties got into power.

    I used to be a supporter of the BJP party (rightwing one), but their role in the Gujarat riots (where about 2000 muslim civilians were killed) turned me away from their party.

    By the looks of the market response, and by the party performance, it seems like the public and businesses are happy — at least for now! I do not have active discussions on Indian politics since I get accused of not being Indian enough anyway…

    S

  112. John says:

    I did double income overpaid. My brothers town and my town very very few women work and there is not a lot of house movement with most people who bought in the 1990/s. People who bought a house for 300k in 1996 that is now worth 700K are not sweating it. It is irrational to differeniate between real and paper losses yet people do it. I paid 278 for my house. Chump change. Remember in stable upscale neighborhoods the 2003-2007 crowd is in the soup. The 1960s though 2002 crowd are stil ok as long as they did not cash out and lose their job.

    3b says:
    May 18, 2009 at 12:34 pm
    #102 John: Double Income. It was you who made the comment about double income people paying high prices etc.

    Not that it matters, but you continue to contradict yourself.

  113. Clotpoll says:

    3b (107)-

    The one thing nobody can explain away is why COF has crept into double-digit default rates, or why Advanta is now basically dead man walking.

  114. Clotpoll says:

    100% write-downs of unsecured debt are gonna leave an ugly little mark on an economy that’s junkie-dependent on consumer spending.

    The only write-downs that are worse are the 100% write-off jobs we’re starting to see in CMBS.

  115. Clotpoll says:

    What’s in your wallet?

  116. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    John you are in fantasyland.

  117. 3b says:

    #112 clot: I am sure John can. he can explain it to his students too.

  118. Clotpoll says:

    sastry (108)-

    Good on you. Also appears that the last owner may have engaged in a bit of equity-stripping.

    What the hell…good on him, too. Gamed the system.

  119. Clotpoll says:

    3b (109)-

    Somebody should tell that agent a professional head shot can’t be taken with a cell phone.

  120. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [118] clot

    “Also appears that the last owner may have engaged in a bit of equity-stripping.”

    The next phase of O-man’s tax initiatives will address equity-stripping, to a much greater degree than they have. I am relying on equity stripping to get the value of immovable assets offshore so I am watching this area closely.

    In the future, there won’t be a single mom-and-pop business that isn’t in hock to an offshore entity that they surreptitiously control.

  121. Clotpoll says:

    Why do RE agents think that a photo showing them jamming a phone into their ears makes them look busy?

    Those could be margin calls.

  122. Curmudgeon says:

    Danzud (45)..

    Do you read the articles or just the headlines? The “article” that Grim posted is a WSJ editorial. That is hard news in the same way that a sermon at Sarah Palin’s church is a theology lesson. There is not a single credible study that “the rich” choose their domicile according to tax rates. Hard as it is to believe, New Jersey’s economy has fared better than most over the past year. Mind you, that is not to say that we are not heading for a s—storm with our pensions but it’s all relative. Where exactly do you and the editors of the WSJ suppose “the rich” will be moving? Florida? Florida is one hurricane away from utter insolvency. The state is insuring about 40% of total RE market currently and has zero ability to pay claims. California? (if I need to explain Cali, you need remedial lessons…) Pennsylvania? The pension situation is actually worse than NJ and where do you suppose my neighbors on Navesink River Road will move in Pennsyltucky? The answer is simple; they are not moving anywhere.

  123. 3b says:

    #118 clot: Yeah, but she looks like she means business.

  124. Clotpoll says:

    plume (119)-

    You are an evil genius. We really have to GTG over a few Knob Creeks one evening. I think I have a few ideas to contribute to your grand expatriation schemes.

    BTW, Oblamma has come up with a way to refinance negative equity. The details are still a little sketchy at this time, though.

  125. Clotpoll says:

    HUD will be coming out with their “Refinance Negative Equity Now” guidelines soon after they figure out a way to bring forward and monetize (for purposes of downpayment) an 8K tax credit that almost immediately has to be paid back to the gubmint.

    [sarcasm remains stuck in “on” position]

  126. 3b says:

    #124 clot: Is the end of June still considered the end of the Spring selling season?

  127. Clotpoll says:

    The gubmint is acting like the worst kind of cokehead scammer Countryfried loan guy at the height of the bubble in ’05 after he’s jammed half of Peru up his snout.

  128. Clotpoll says:

    3b (125)-

    The Spring selling season ended when Larry Fitzgerald took that pass down the middle and scored.

  129. veto that says:

    John, i agree with some of your optimism because we went so high during the bubble years that even a huge crash would likely only correct to historically ‘normal’ levels.
    The question is if this is only the 4th inning and we still have about 3 or 4 more big legs down ahead of us. Thats the scary part but to act as if this is definately the 9th inning, nobody can say that for sure.

  130. sastry says:

    Clot and Nom… As Shore would say, his taxes have paid the original owner and now me :)

    BTW, the place is not bad at all, the whole 9 yards of American Dream! Previous owner didn’t trash anything. The place is much better than our rental place when we moved in *after* repainting, repairing done by the rental agency. Lightly lived. We were simply at the right place at the right time.

    S

  131. Stu says:

    John (104):

    “unless this site or Forum counts I am in trouble”

    I do not recommend that you use your musings on this blog as part of your resume unless you are job hunting at the Spearmint Rhino.

  132. John says:

    Stu Nice, hey I am going to Marco Island soon in Florida, is there anything like that there for me to visit?

  133. Clotpoll says:

    Stu (130)-

    I can’t envision a position higher than mop boy at the ‘ol Spearmint.

  134. sastry says:

    #130…

    I do not recommend that you use your musings on this blog as part of your resume unless you are job hunting at the Spearmint Rhino.

    or Faux News…

    S

  135. Curmudgeon says:

    In spite of the ridiculous inefficiency of ETF’s, I couldn’t resist an SRS buy for kicks, confirmed at $21.25 about 10 minutes ago. Just for the record…

  136. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    John,

    Where’s the demand for all these loans going to come from in the middle of a major recession? Sure they some people who can refinance. A few buying new homes. Other than that where does all this banking demand come from?

  137. Clotpoll says:

    John (131)-

    Here are some places that may be to your liking there:

    http://tinyurl.com/pg8dnj

    Think cougars. Very old cougars.

  138. BC Bob says:

    “to act as if this is definately the 9th inning, nobody can say that for sure.”

    Ask Dick Fuld.

  139. Clotpoll says:

    HE (135)-

    Don’t you dare try telling John this is a balance sheet recession.

  140. 3b says:

    #128 veto: historically normal levels.

    Historically normal levels would be fine.

  141. danzud says:

    Curmudgeon,

    Me thinks you protest my choice of words (article/editorial) a bit too much. And fine, I won’t take a look at the scoreboard and see all those people still moving to Florida and Nevada as if retired people only consider warm weather and not taxes. I’ll also conveniently overlook Derek Jeter the tax cheat since clearly this tax case has nothing to do with taxes. He’s still a great player though.

  142. John says:

    Nov 2007 to March 2009 was just a bull market pause.

    I always giggle that people can’t believe that someone named Dick Fluid turned out to be a crook. Almost as funny as a buy named Bernie Madeoff Made off with their money. Or a old guy with a deep tan and mafia suits from the Bronx was also a crook. Or the slipperly card playing CEO of Bear also was not on the up and up. Oh my. Who would have thought it.

    BC Bob says:
    May 18, 2009 at 1:18 pm
    “to act as if this is definately the 9th inning, nobody can say that for sure.”

    Ask Dick Fuld.

  143. 3b says:

    #142 John:Nov 2007 to March 2009 was just a bull market pause.

    Based on what oh learned one?

  144. danzud says:

    Curmudgeon,

    Second, this place has still save me a ton of money.

  145. relo says:

    John,

    There are few establishments like the Rhino anywhere, much less in Marco. The Hooters in Naples, which was kept out for many years, is the closest you’ll get unless you go across the Alley or Tampa. Stay away from Ft. Myers spots.

  146. danzud says:

    Curmudgeon,

    Thanks for bringing up SRS, I’ll think about it. Bought into FAZ last Friday at 4.59 and still have money on the side.

  147. Victorian says:

    Dude, this Davidowitz guy is like watching “Sopranos for Finance geeks”.

  148. Sean says:

    Yowza here is a condo auction in Jersey City.

    http://www.sheldongood.com/detail.php?id=1711

    OVER 75% SOLD & OCCUPIED

    25 ONE & TWO BR LUXURY CONDOMINIUMS
    12 TO BE SOLD ABSOLUTE REGARDLESS OF PRICE!

    SUGGESTED OPENING BIDS: $150,000-$250,000

    Originally Priced From $380,000-$700,000

  149. John says:

    Geithner: Looking at ways to make muni-market work

    Investors rushing back into financials, Oppenheimer says
    Having avoided the sector, fund managers now try to catch up with rally

  150. BC Bob says:

    “Nov 2007 to March 2009 was just a bull market pause.”

    J,

    And a daisy cutter is just a firecracker.

  151. Clotpoll says:

    John (149)-

    Chasing the market. Yep, that’s what the pros do.

    “Investors rushing back into financials, Oppenheimer says
    Having avoided the sector, fund managers now try to catch up with rally”

  152. HEHEHE says:

    Intraday Market Observations

    Posted by Tyler Durden at 12:53 PM
    S&P higher by 20 points. Credit (IG12) wider by 1 point. The disagreement continues.

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/intraday-market-observations.html

  153. 3b says:

    #151 clot: So now we have institutional buyers piggybacking on retail buyers.

    Scary, very scary.

  154. Clotpoll says:

    3b (153)-

    I prefer the term, “lemmings”.

    Soon to be like Wil E Coyote…on Acme rocket skates…into the grill of an oncoming truck.

  155. Sean says:

    re: #151 – Clot chasing the dragon is more like it.

  156. Sean says:

    Great now we have Flint Micighan comparisons in to parts of NJ.

    “So many homeowners are at least 90 days behind on their mortgage payments that the delinquency rate in Essex exceeds that of Genesee County, Mich. — home of Flint, a symbol for cities economically devastated by the sinking fortunes of America’s auto industry.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/17/nyregion/new-jersey/17mortnj.html?pagewanted=1&ref=new-jersey

  157. Clotpoll says:

    But John said our foreclosure problem would be nowhere near as bad as FL or NV…

    As if.

  158. John says:

    Junk bonds and Financials are on a tear if you are a fund manager who lost 40% last year you can’t afford not to jump on bandwagon and hope you get off before it crashes. People don’t pay you to stay in cash after the bottom has been hit, right or wrong that is how it works. It is not just banks, insurance is on a big time tear since March 12th too.

    Worst part is risk taking nuts who jumped back in with short term money that should have stayed in cash now have their nest egg up 30% in two months. These fools will be competing with you for homes. It was much better when the cash folks were getting inflated while the stocks and bond folks were getting deflated. My lucky buddy who was 100% in Tech who bought a huge condo in NYC in Feb 2000 and cashed out at the time was hurting the consertive folks in the money markets. Friend kept every nickle in tech from 1992 to 2000. Bought a 650K place for cash while not really saving much, when you get like 40% a year for seven years followed by an 86% gain in 1999 it is pretty easy to save 650K. but then again he was plain lucky.

  159. 3b says:

    #158 John:People don’t pay you to stay in cash after the bottom has been hit.

    Well there is the potential msitake. There are those of us who belive that teh bottom has not been hit.

    Today’s silly rally on Lowes should be clear evidence of that.

  160. Alap says:

    Can someone get me the unit number for MLS#: 90005783 please?

  161. jcer says:

    Sean, I looked at those condos. Very nice but a poor location. The sponsor is competing against resale units and the bank. That project makes tons of sense as a rental, and many speculators who purchased there have done just that but a 500k 2 bedroom rented at 2500 a month with maintenance of 1200 and taxes of 500(Great pilot, low taxes). Now in this economy it get worse because even if you have great condos that thing is thousands of units and is less than a quarter built. Not comforting as they would not give guarantees about build out. Do I really want to live next to rotted out hulks of buildings on a half finished site? Where the status of the many amenities is tbd? that being said at 50% off i would consider buying like a nice 2 bedroom for 250-275. There are already 3-4 foreclosures in that project. I wish the developer well but unless they can sell and finish it out in the near future, it doesn’t look good. I heard they are going to put up a rental tower. We will see if they remain solvent.

  162. John says:

    GM’s Exchange Offer Registration Declared Effective

  163. 3b says:

    #162 John: now if they can just sell some cars.

  164. zieba says:

    I would venture to guess that 85% percent of folks who purchased a home in the last 4 years are not able to save and instead plow the take home nut into housing/expenses. What’s crazy is that after they finally give up ghost they are kicked to the curb naked, broke….go back to start do not collect $200. Well, unless you take clots advice and pocket payments while in the foreclosure process.
    These people can’t just up’n’move. It takes a while to build your savings.

  165. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [124] clot

    I have been called brilliant in the past, but don’t recall anyone putting in print that I am an “evil genius.”

    But in light of this development, “evil genius” may be grounds for disbarment. If this gains any traction at all, it will prove to be an absolute Pandora’s Box:

    “The [“progressive” read “liberal” advocacy] group registered formal complaints against David Addington, John Ashcroft, Stephen Bradbury, Jay Bybee, Michael Chertoff, Douglas Feith, Alice Fisher, Timothy Flanigan, Alberto Gonzales, William Haynes II, Michael Mukasey and John Yoo.

    The complaints, filed with the bars in California, the District of Columbia, New York, Pennsylvania and Texas, also seek other forms of disciplinary action in addition to disbarment.

    A preliminary internal report on the Justice Department investigation into the authors of the Bush administration’s “torture memos” indicated that the federal government might also urge state bar associations to take sanctions against the memo writers, according to two government sources.”

    This is a “total war” policy on the part of the progressives. Problem is, total war implies “total.” I foresee a career for SAS as a political operative.

  166. lurker til now says:

    sastry,

    did you get 21 wingate? i saw that it came on and off the market at warp speed. congratulations :)

    clotpoll,

    what is equity-stripping?

  167. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [122] curmudgeon

    “There is not a single credible study that “the rich” choose their domicile according to tax rates”

    I could produce a boatload of studies, but I suspect you would deem them “incredible.”

    Still, your view works for me. Keep repeating it. In fact, repeat it often to Corzine and policy makers. I need the business.

  168. Traitor nom deplume says:

    Sastry,

    Congratulations on joining the rest of us bagholders.

  169. Stu says:

    Nom (168):

    “Congratulations on joining the rest of us bagholders.”

    So mean, yet so true!

  170. jcer says:

    Lets get real, people will flee if the taxes get too high. I know people in the real estate business if they got taxed too heavily they will move their operation to FL(They already operate a division down there), still own property all over but pay employee salaries out of FL and put all of their architects, engineers, etc out of a FL office or they could move to PA easily. They might not save that much but out of principle the wealthy don’t like to get fleeced by the tax man. The last thing anyone needs in this economy is significantly higher taxes. The answer is real reform and maybe small tax increases if absolutely necessary. Here is the thing NJ raises taxes on these people they decide to relocate to Florida, I guess 100 people are out of good paying jobs and NJ loses more tax dollars. The democrats in NJ are absolutely clueless, we will not retain jobs nor have people move in to create jobs with this tax climate. Even if it only effects a small group of people NJ already has a bad reputation and this will make it worse. We need to at least appear business friendly.

  171. HEHEHE says:

    DLA Piper is cutting salaries for its 550 US-based associates and moving compensation towards a merit-based system.

    The firm said in a memo that it will reduce first-year associate salaries in its major markets from $160,000 (£105,000) to $145,000 (£95,000). First-year salaries in second-tier cities, which stood at at $145,000, will drop to $130,000 (£85,000).

    http://www.legalweek.com/Articles/1198091/DLA+Piper+cuts+salaries+for+US-based+associates.html

  172. Clotpoll says:

    lurk (166)-

    Removal of equity in a property through the use of cash-out refinance. Very often, it is facilitated by an inflated appraisal, which allows the borrower to extract equity that really never existed.

  173. Clotpoll says:

    Too bad the retard bi isn’t here, crowing about IYR or some similar nonsense.

    I miss the little fella.

  174. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [170] stu

    I’m an evil genius, remember???

    Speaking of which, here is a quote from a study on Curmudgeon’s favorite website:

    “The small number of elderly migration studies that consider state EIG taxes produce some
    support that the elderly move to avoid state EIG taxes, but have also produced some counter-intuitive results. Voss et al (1988) and Conway and Houtenville (2001, 2003) use 1990 state-to-state migration flows and find that state EIG taxes make for a less desirable destination. Clark and Hunter (1992) use imputed county net-inmigration rates and find similar results for those aged 50-70 years.”

    http://pubpages.unh.edu/~ksconway/NTJ_Conway_Rork_Finalv.pdf

    Fact is, CBPP has always maintained that (1) the rich are not taxed enough, and (2) migration isn’t a problem. (Of course, if migration isn’t a problem, why does CBPP advocate anti-migration legislation? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?)

    But as I told Curmudgeon, keep up the good work. It just drives folks into my arms. Not that they are migrating or expatriating or anything. Nope, never heard of it.

  175. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [171] jcer

    ” NJ already has a bad reputation”

    Last year, the owner of the Minnesota Vikings, a property developer, was invited to Trenton to meet with Hizzoner, and he told King Jon to his face “I do business in 38 states. This is the worst.”

    Direct quote. To his face. And King Jon never replied.

  176. HEHEHE says:

    IP, RIP: Firm Axes 120 From “Recession Proof” Practice

    Fish & Richardson Layoffs Create More IP AngstPosted by Rachel Breitman
    IP, frequently considered a recession-proof practice, took another hit this week.
    Fish & Richardson, a Boston-based IP firm, cut 35 lawyers and 85 support staff, slashing their head count by more than 7 percent, Above the Law reported on Wednesday, The firm confirmed the layoffs to The Am Law Daily on Friday.

    http://amlawdaily.typepad.com/amlawdaily/2009/05/fish-richardson-layoffs-mark-latest-ip-woes.html

  177. John says:

    New York Fed Purchases $3.18 Billion Worth of Long-Term Bonds
    Monday May 18, 2009 11:34:00 EDT
    (RTTNews) – The New York Federal Reserve continued its treasury buyback program Monday as part of its efforts to thaw credit markets by injecting capital into the U.S. economy.

    The New York Fed purchased $3.18 billion worth of securities with maturity dates ranging from August of 2019 to February of 2026.

    The day’s buyback attracted strong interest, with a total of $15.22 billion in treasuries submitted for the purchase.

    With the purchase, the government has bought back $107.87 billion in treasuries since the purchase program began on March 25th.

    Late last week, the New York Fed purchased $2.98 billion worth of securities with maturity dates ranging from May of 2010 to February of 2011.

    That buyback had a total of $27.09 billion in treasuries submitted for the purchase.

    In the bond markets, treasuries are showing moderate weakness, with the yield on the benchmark ten-year note up 2.4 basis points, at 3.147 percent.

  178. sastry says:

    lurker… yes… I asked about that place on this blog about 2 months ago… Wife was following like crazy. Went with seller’s agent (after the dear Abby post to Clot a month ago). Nice place, right?

    S

  179. sastry says:

    Nom #168… In our relatives’ circle, home ownership seems to be a great sign of prestige. I’m sure they’d say something like, “We are much richer than you, see, we paid 2x your price for similar property!”

    For us, it is a nice place, right time, and we are ok with further decline in prices.

    S

  180. grim says:

    Sastry,

    Thank you very much for the donation!

    And more importantly, congrats!

  181. sastry says:

    Grim… My pleasure. It’s just a gesture of thanks from my wife and me. It may sound cliched, but your blog has made a substantial difference in our lives.

    S

  182. Curmudgeon says:

    Nom..

    I believe you miss the point. There have always been high net worth scum that make major life decisions based solely on economics. (Of course, many make these changes on paper only and maneuver to stay one step ahead of the largely cooperating authorities..) I would posit that the percentage of these miserable losers has remained constant over time, with cyclical peaks and valleys. Although it is lovely that you contribute your skill set in this field to our world, I would venture that your relative historic impact is nil. But carry on, good man.. and if it brings you joy, more power to you. Now go fondle a gun; I KNOW that makes you feel happy and virile.

  183. Clotpoll says:

    cur (182)-

    Didja ever think that people who make big life decisions based on economics are also doing so based upon principle?

    You posit a weak and illogical argument by stating that people who wish to avoid heavy and unreasonable taxation are “high net worth scum”.

    One of the big revenue centers of my business (other than tilling the gardens of human misery) is helping people get out of NJ as fast and as profitably as possible. Let me assure you that virtually NONE of the clients I’ve helped escape this plutocratic hell-hole of a welfare state fit your strawman profile of a NJ escapee at all.

  184. sastry says:

    Curumudgeon, my views align with yours quite a bit, but demonizing people holding the opposing view point won’t do anyone any good.

    S

  185. Clotpoll says:

    sastry (184)-

    Aw, let this guy go. I’m itching for a fight, anyway.

    I think his position is bullshit and his argument is pure strawman.

  186. Clotpoll says:

    To prove I am a good and upstanding person, I will let the state of NJ tax me into oblivion.

  187. Clotpoll says:

    Puh-fcuking-leeze.

  188. Clotpoll says:

    Michael Savage isn’t my cup of tea, but I do agree with him on one thing:

    Liberalism is a mental disorder.

  189. jcer says:

    Curmudgeon, “High net worth scum”???????? Lets just face it many of these people are successful people who rightfully so earned that money through hard work and intelligence. Many have built businesses, created new products, etc. I have heard exactly what Nom has said from other sucessful business people in NJ, they want to get things done, create jobs, etc and NJ cannot get out of the way, everyone wants their vig so to speak. Between pay to play, inept politicians, and the wonderful tax state it is a miracle anyone wants to come here and it generally seems to be the result of having good geographic location and decent infrastructure. Corzine has been a joke, he is so bad he is making McGreevy look good. I mean honestly it looks as if the Dems might not be running Corzine, the incumbent. it would not surprise me in the least to see Booker running as the Dem candidate for Gov of NJ.

  190. 3b says:

    #184 sastry: So you believe that people who earn mroe should just automatically pay more, regardless?

    I am all for fair taxation, but is it fair to tax someone on the sole belief that since they have more they should pay more?

    Should every poor decesion made by the state, including its refusal to make meaningful spending cuts be rectified on the backs of those who make more?

    That is just inherently unfair.

  191. jcer says:

    Fyi, Booker is a young well spoken Corzine, he has been inept in Newark with regards to business. Purely a political stepping stone, could care less about Newark and its people just wants to rise to the next level in Democratic politics.

  192. Clotpoll says:

    Let’s see how liberal Sastry remains after he gets his first property tax bill.

    Or, after he meets the people at the school that’s trying to turn his kids brains to puddles of goo.

  193. relo says:

    Clot,

    Nailed it. I used to be liberal way back when no kids and renting.

  194. Clotpoll says:

    jcer (191)-

    Cory Booker = young Sharpe James, without the dealmaking sense

    Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

  195. sastry says:

    Clot… the property tax is very close to the mortgage payment — and is likely to exceed the mortgage if no major hiccups occur and we pay a few bucks extra in a year or so.

    Time to start getting a “Palin and Jindal for 2012” bumper sticker?

    S

  196. Clotpoll says:

    The only way to be a liberal is to be able to afford it, or to be lined up as a direct beneficiary of liberal activism.

    Where I’m from, they call it a massa/slave thang.

  197. John says:

    Nasdaq finish up 3%

    That sentence says it all. Chase for instance is paying 1/2 of one percent on savings. So at 1/2 of one percent it would take you six years to earn 3% in Chase savings which is what you could have got in one day. The foxes are chasing the chickens out of the hen house.

  198. Clotpoll says:

    sastry (196)-

    Palin and Jindal? Are you kidding me?

    It is possible to avoid the extremes of both liberalism and being a goddamned idiot.

    What the hell do I care? I don’t even vote.

  199. jcer says:

    Having liberal views and being anti-tax are not mutually exclusive. I hold my fair-share of liberal views but also believe that graft and inefficiency, corruption, etc are parasites on an effective government. It is all about balance, to me this state wastes tons of money, money that could be put to good use, money that is needed for infrastructure and education, things that make us more competitive globally will benefit the citizens of the state by providing economic opportunity. Creating a bunch of no show jobs for lazy people, we might as well take the money and burn it. I have no problem with taxes, if the vast majority of citizens benefit but I do not see it that way. I see a state that mismanaged it’s finances and refuses to get real with respect to the employees and their benefits.

  200. relo says:

    John,

    On up days that math works.

  201. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [180] sastry,

    Sounds about how we got to where we were. I am hoping for 18+ years in this location so I hope it works out. Same for you. Pop a cork for all of us after closing.

  202. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [183] comrade curmudgeon,

    “I would venture that your relative historic impact is nil.”

    You know, I am okay with that. In fact, anonimity is a virtue in my line of work. The whale that surfaces is the one that gets harpooned.

    “Now go fondle a gun; I KNOW that makes you feel happy and virile.”

    How’d you guess? My birthday is coming up. Are you getting me a 100 round box of .223 cal.? Would make my day!!!

  203. sastry says:

    Clot, I am too old to find myself wanting to drastically change. Especially since I straddle two diverse cultures — many Indians here are culturally very conservative, not just in their lifestyle, but what in what they think others should do.

    A few bucks here and there tax-wise won’t be a major factor. May be my toddler will push me in to the conservative camp by the time she is in her teens, but then that would be a useless conversion of convenience on my part.

    S

  204. sastry says:

    Nom #203… All I need to do is to hang on to my job. :)

    S

  205. sastry says:

    jcer: you are mixing up graft and progressive taxation. Most people do not want graft in the government. The best way is to control spending, pay down debt, and then worry about reducing taxes, etc.

    S

  206. we says:

    John,

    What do you think of FAGIX?

  207. Zack says:

    #206
    “All I need to do is to hang on to my job.”

    tsk tsk..I feel sorry for you.

  208. meter says:

    Re: 190

    “I am all for fair taxation, but is it fair to tax someone on the sole belief that since they have more they should pay more?”

    1) Define “fair”. (Good luck).
    2) Yes.

  209. xmonger says:

    “Not to be a republican at twenty is proof of want of heart; to be one at thirty is
    proof of want of head.”

    Francois Guisot (1787-1874)

  210. veto that says:

    we, he most likely loves it. anything below invest grade is a must have.
    I wouldnt touch it, even if it came with a 20% dividend but maybe thats why my portfolio is flat and John’s is up over 200% this year.

  211. Shore Guy says:

    ” graft and inefficiency, corruption, etc are parasites on an effective government”

    I thought the inscription above the Statehouse door said:

    Graft, inefficiency, corruption, anf patronage are an essential part of an effective government.

  212. we says:

    212, I am wondering how much room it has to run?

  213. Shore Guy says:

    Fair taxation is the same percentage tax for everyone, regardless of income, and regardless of mode of earning.

  214. 3b says:

    #210 meter:2) Yes.

    Perhaps you would care to back up that simplistic yes, with a why?

  215. veto that says:

    Fair taxation is also based on consumption, not income. but that would cause savings and we dont want that.

  216. Shore Guy says:

    “Let’s see how liberal Sastry remains after he gets his first property tax bill.”

    Now, Clot, the first one will not do it. What will get to Sastry will be a couple of huge property tax increases combined wit B.O. eliminating the property tax and state income deductiond from federal taxes combined with King Jon, or the next Gov. deciding that Sastry is too friggen well off to be allowed to keep so much of his money and slapping an extra state income tax on him, all while getting swept into AMT.

  217. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [212] xmonger

    That was often (including by me) misattributed to Winston Churchill.

    But he supposedly said this, which seems prophetic for the times:

    “The United States invariably does the right thing, after having exhausted every other alternative.”

  218. Silera says:

    Technically, even if there was a flat tax, high earners would end up paying more.

    Currently, with the progressive system- lower earners paying less to no taxes still spend a greater percentage of their income on necessities like healthcare, food and housing.

    I’m sure there’s some type of medium somewhere between the two. The greedy rich guy and lazy poor guy extremes dilute any type of legitimate conversation about this, even in this forum of fairly reasonable and educated adults.

  219. Shore Guy says:

    Veto,

    On a related note, it may well be worth looking at taxing goods based on environmental harm and untimate disposal costs. Some things cost next to nothing for a manufacturer to produce, return high profits to the manufacturer, but cost society a bundle to deal with at end of life.

  220. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [207] sastry,

    Good luck with that. NJ needs the tax revenue.

    (reminds me of an old, old Rocky and Bullwinkle episode, where the US Army was shooting ack-ack at Rocky. He flew around so that the bursts spelled out “US TAXPAYER” and the general shouted “Cease Fire. My God, we need every one of those we got.”)

    /senile cartoon flashback off

  221. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [222] shore

    A concept I agree with, but derided as being a consumption tax in disguise, and, even more hateful to the left, a “regressive” tax.

  222. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [221] silera

    Reasonable??? Who you calling reasonable??? Why, you *&%$#@.

  223. Shore Guy says:

    Clot,

    To prove I am a good and upstanding person, I will let the state of NJ tax you into oblivion. Sastry too. Just because I am such a nice and big-hearted guy.

  224. meter says:

    “…is it fair to tax someone on the sole belief that since they have more they should pay more?”

    Does this make sense to you:

    “Is it fair to tax someone on the sole belief that since they have less, they should pay more?”

    Didn’t think so. Ergo, my point.

    Also, the so-called “Fair Tax” is regressive and penalizes the poor.

  225. sastry says:

    Silera, nice comment.

    I think one thing that we all can agree is a bad one is the “greedy and idle rich guy/gal/Waltons” that get to bend rules easily.

    S

  226. jcer says:

    Clot, no, not at all. Booker is smart, but lack the street smarts and does not care about Newark as much. Sharpe actually did some things that helped his city, maybe at the expense of the state, maybe making a profit for himself along the way but he got it done. Think political bosses from the machines, like Frank Hague, he got a lot of federal money for Jersey City and thus was very popular with his constituency, he was a crook, but a lot of people ate because of the money he got brought in.

    Booker is a different animal, he is not in it for the money. He could be doing something else pulling down good sums of money. He is highly educated and could clearly do something to get paid, he is not the same breed as a typical Newark politician. He goes very far to avoid impropriety and spends little time in Newark, the mayor’s office is a stepping stone. He wants a to be a senator or congressman, maybe governor. He isn’t shaking up the staff because he doesn’t intend to stick around long and in doing so he could mess up the city, the people running Newark do ok, who knows what happens if he changes it and he doesn’t intend to find out.

  227. Shore Guy says:

    “demonizing people holding the opposing view point won’t do anyone any good.”

    Sastry,

    Never was there any more evidence that you were not born in the Great State of NJ.

  228. Shore Guy says:

    ANd that you dont make your living in professional politics, or in talk radio.

  229. 3b says:

    #227 meter: “Is it fair to tax someone on the sole belief that since they have less, they should pay more?”

    That responde makes no sense.

    Basically you are saying Mike has, but Peter deos not, therefore I will take some of Mike’s so that Peter has more.

    And if Peter did the bare minimum in life, or did nothing at all, but Mike worked hard his whole life, who cares, I am taking it anyhow.

    As far as poor,define it please?

  230. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [1] grim

    Does this strike the rest of you as ironic and funny?

    “The unpaid day off is designed to help cut costs and balance the state budget in the recession.

    MVC employees are planning to protest outside offices in Newark.”

    So, they got the day off, but it was without pay, so they spent it at the office??????

    Why is it we can’t get them to work when we pay them, yet they show up on an unpaid day off????

    Maybe we should just stop paying them, and things would go smoother!

  231. veto that says:

    “taxing goods based on environmental harm”

    Good one shore, we are headed in that direction.

    im all for environment tax and clean energy. would happily pay triple on utlities to save one bird. ha.

  232. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [233] 3b

    now you understand John Rawls’ Theory of Justice, and the utilitarian philosophical theories about marginal utility.

  233. veto that says:

    Why not just eliminate all government employees and reduce taxes to zero?
    Kick our feet up and watch cartoons all day…

  234. meter says:

    Re: 232

    “Basically you are saying Mike has, but Peter deos not, therefore I will take some of Mike’s so that Peter has more.

    And if Peter did the bare minimum in life, or did nothing at all, but Mike worked hard his whole life, who cares, I am taking it anyhow.”

    Taxes are – for better or worse – part of the cost of living in a civilized society. Sorry you haven’t caught on to that yet. I don’t like subsidizing the war in Iraq with my hard-earned money but I don’t have much say in that. We don’t get to pick and choose where taxes are spent. You don’t like paying for welfare (neither do I, to be honest), but I don’t like warmongering. Maybe you don’t either. Maybe you don’t have kids and don’t like paying high taxes to support teacher’s salaries. Don’t like it? Move.

    It’s not up to me to say who is rich or poor, but it’s like the famous quote about pornography: “I can’t define it, but I know it when I see it.” You made a blanket, vague statement and I responded with a blanket, vague response. On purpose.

    If you think you can get a better deal elsewhere – some place where you can keep more of your hard-earned income (assuming you have a business-friendly environment similar to the one you enjoy here in the US with security, access to infrastructure, access to top-educated employees, etc.) – up and move. Nobody is stopping you.

  235. yome says:

    question:If you are on the most top bracket,are you still getting hit by AMT?
    The reason i asked,someone said that if you are on the top most bracket there is no limit on deduction.

  236. cobbler says:

    In a grand scheme of things the taxes we pay in the U.S. or even in NJ are not that high if you compare them with the ones in the EU countries which have generally much happier populace. The problem is that what we here are getting from the government in exchange for these taxes is obscenely less than in the high-tax countries – and this is what causes resentment.

  237. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [235] veto

    But there is something to be said for making those who use/deplete/harm a resource to actually pay for it.

    This is one reason the gas tax makes sense (in theory)—-it taxes directly the person who uses the roads and pollutes the air. So in one sense, it is a very fair tax. But it is also regressive, which is, by definition of some, unfair. Then you get into the question of whether it is fair to apply general income principles to a targetted tax.

    But, ATEOTD, the snarky press secretary said it best: “We won, so we get to make the rules.”

    Our tax system is based on a power struggle. It is literally that simple. If you win, you get to decide what is “fair.”

  238. Silera says:

    The 10% flat tax always seemed too good to be true to me even though logically like it. Plume knows a lot more about taxes than I do. If he says they’re the way to go then I’m all for it. I’m tired of thinking.

    On an anecdotal note- there’s been a lot of conversation about the commercial real estate collapse that is in progress/about to happen. I was in Miami this weekend and it felt like 40% of all the commercial real estate from Ft. Lauderdale to the Doral was empty. Huge warehouses, office buildings, empty lots lining the highway on either side were just begging for tenants.

  239. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [237] veto that

    “Kick our feet up and watch cartoons all day”

    Unfortunately, it describes my weekends. My older daughter constantly asks for “little girl TV” meaning cartoons, then wants me to watch them with her.

  240. jcer says:

    The argument that graft is a separate issue than raising taxes is nonsense. The graft is what has and continues to lead us in this direction. The NJ government largely makes us less competitive, and exists solely to employ way too many people. Until government makes real reforms I think it is the Citizenry’s obligation to be upset about taxation. What should we be like, Corzine says the state needs more money, thats ok we should just give it no questions asked because this place is so wonderful?????????

    To respond to Shore, about the sign on the statehouse. In some respects that is true, without those things I think the government would move much more slowly. I think the NJ government and it corruption like a caged monster that lays delicious eggs. For many years it did not get in the way and we got delicious eggs, but it has grown larger, escaped, and is now eating people. The only solution is to kill it and start again, eventually to wind up in the same place.

  241. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [241] silera

    ” Huge warehouses, office buildings, empty lots lining the highway on either side were just begging for tenants.”

    Coming to a northeastern state near you!

  242. veto that says:

    Nom, Good points.
    And you are living the life i’ve always wanted. And as if you are doing her the favor…

  243. DL says:

    Clot: Ref regional bank exposure. Posted this on the last thread.

    Philadelphia luxury condo project heads to sheriff’s sale.

    Lakhmna was unable to sell enough units priced at $329,000 to $1,479,000 and “agreed to cede control” of the project to the lender, Abington Bank, which is owed “an aggregate outstanding balance of $15.1 million.” That would be for three construction loans for American Loft, according to a statement from the bank.

    http://www.philly.com/philly/business/45231852.html

  244. jcer says:

    nom, I don’t know about that. Florida’s problem is that they have land and those locations tend not to be ideal. Here the develops have such a hard time building there are companies lined up waiting for buildings in prime spots. Especially in the food business, and other core staples. The Northeast has a huge concentrated population. Also without knowing what has been built those building could be vacant for many reasons, like the space is ill suited for most tenants. To building industrial realestate you need to know what like of use is being targeted. Those site are probably to small for most large tenant needs.

  245. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [245] veto

    At least she has discovered the Boomerang channel and now likes to watch the same things her old dad did.

    Boy, I cannot believe how cheesy Johnny Quest was. I loved that as a kid

  246. cobbler says:

    jcer says:
    May 18, 2009 at 5:07 pm
    The argument that graft is a separate issue than raising taxes is nonsense. The graft is what has and continues to lead us in this direction. The NJ government largely makes us less competitive, and exists solely to employ way too many people. Until government makes real reforms I think it is the Citizenry’s obligation to be upset about taxation.

    Well say from 1999 till today you faithfully put 6% of your pay into 401K plan, and your employer chipped in another say 3%. The value of your plan now is marginally greater than it’s been 10 years ago. The money you put in went to pay bonuses to WS guys and profits to the hedge fund investors. As a by-product, it made a RE bubble in NY metro area fatter than most other places since these bonuses had been looking for a home. I’d much rather have the govt take these 9% of my pay and guarantee me a decent retirement so that I don’t spend my working hours tracking the market – will improve productivity, too.

  247. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [247] jcer

    Fair point. I know next to nothing about Florida. Notwithstanding their superior tax structure for small businesspeople and other HNW scum, I never much liked the state.

    Too flat, too humid, and too hot.

  248. Clotpoll says:

    Shore (218)-

    Love your attention to detail. Watch it happen.

  249. Curmudgeon says:

    The highest earners don’t make their fortunes from earned income. They pay capital gains taxes…sometimes. If AMT were affecting the truly wealthy, it would have been repealed decades ago…

    The AMT is for schlubs like us!

    PS- I’ll look into an Ammo-Gram for ya, Nom. (that was a joke, not a threat!)

  250. grim says:

    New thread! Up!

  251. jcer says:

    Nom, Florida is a horrible market for industrial space. No large port, no great freight infrastructure, humidity is bad for merchandise, HURRICANES!!, floods,crime etc. Yes, tax wise much better but as a place to develop industrial real estate, hmm not so much. It is a great place to set up residency and collect a pay check, enjoy the warmth, ocean, and golf in the winter and not much else.

  252. bi's impersonator says:

    Curmudgeon – now that you drank the SRS coolade do you feel any better?

  253. From the top, Southern California is off well over 40%, Nevada a dear friend of mine Renee Burrows tracks Las Vegas prices and feels they are down as much as 70% from the top. Florida as much as 60% in some cases and Arizona similar. I do feel if we see the Fitch prediction, many municipalities will have trouble making ends meet, people are appealing and will continue to appeal their taxes. They will all have to reacess to stop the onslaught of appeals that will come. I have been see firming in the data, mostly first in the areas of most decline and now in the areas of less speculation. People who can are stepping up. The issue will be are interest rates and availability of mortgages going to stay favorable as they have been for the past couple of months.
    A continued drop will cause many more bank failures and who know what else. I feel that if the money is really flowing in the system we stand a chance of avoiding another big slid. I do note that property is selling if the price is attractive. I also note in our area Bergen County New Jersey, when something is prices right now it is gone. That was not the case an few months ago. The test is how we hold up when we leave spring and go into summer. If summer doesn’t hold a bid then Fitch will be right.

  254. fake rolex says:

    the affordability index is at 111 percent, meaning someone making the median income can afford to buy a home worth 111 percent of the median-priced home.

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