(Yes, this is a repost. The media finally caught on to what DB was saying.)
From Time:
New York Home Prices Forecast to Drop 40%
What’s it feel like to survive one hurricane only to be told that another is on the way? New York City–area homeowners are in just that spot. After the region suffered the brunt of financial-industry cutbacks, the next big wave of woe could be a nor’easter of collapsing home prices. That’s the forecast of an extensive new report on residential real estate by Deutsche Bank, which calls for home prices in metropolitan New York City (which includes Westchester, northern New Jersey and other nearby areas) to fall 40.6% from the prices that prevailed in March.
Ironically, that dire forecast is wrapped in an improving forecast for nationwide home prices. Back in March, Deutsche Bank analysts had expected national home prices to decline 16.5%; now they foresee just a 14% decline. That mildly upbeat news does not hold true for the New York City area, however, which is expected to see a 40.6% drop. While that is also a slight improvement from the March forecast, it is dire
…
New York City’s big problem is not so much the financial-industry meltdown as it is an intense lack of affordability. As the report notes, metropolitan-area New York home prices peaked in the second quarter of 2007 at $552,000. By the first quarter of 2009, the median price had dropped 19%, to $446,000, but the market swoon was less than half the drop recorded in many other areas of the country. Today among the 10 biggest metropolitan areas, New York ranks as the least affordable.
From the Wall Street Journal:
Deutsche Bank Predicts 40% Drop in New York Home Prices
How much further could home prices tumble in the New York City metro area? Deutsche Bank predicts a decline of 40.6% from the first quarter of 2009.
That’s a slight improvement over the 47.4% decline that the bank’s analysts had forecast in March, and it reflects in part the fact that prices have dropped since then. Still, prices would have to drop another 32% from the first quarter of 2009 to return the New York market to levels of affordability not seen since 1998.
…
Median prices in the first quarter of 2009 dropped to $446,000 in New York, down 19% from the peak of $552,000 set in the second quarter of 2007. Deutsche Bank forecasts a total peak-to-trough decline of 52.1%.
Anybody have any advice buying a house from relocation company?
second!
does the report also predict how long this will take?
Stu,
I have to apologize, the guy in Office space was driving a Toyota Teracel
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1JBrdbsVm0
It might be interesting to see whether DB breaks their forecast down by sub-region. “Metropolitan New York City” is just too large and diverse (economically) an area for a single metric to make sense everywhere. Also, since the TIME writeup seems to focus in on affordability, I am going to make a wild guess and say the 40.6% projected decrease is likely due to the fact that the most unaffordable parts of our region have also seen the smallest price decreases so far. If that’s true, then we’ll likely see less than 40.6% decreases in parts that have already been pummeled by the downturn. Manhattan is likely going to get assraped though, not that I mind.
I know someone out there has got a copy of it handy.
Can I get a copy? Please?
i told you guys that prices will go to zero. but you wouldn’t listen.
and now you’ve got to eat crow.
RUWaiting #209… Earlier thread
Any truth that Edison, NJ is as well, if not more, known as other major US cities in India?
Not much truth to it. The main ones that people generally know are New York, Dalls, Detroit, Chicago, Los Angeles, and “New Jersey”. Edison doesn’t even come up with people in India — most would think Tom Edison.
S
http://www.filedropper.com/jpm1
JPM: US housing affordability index and home sales; correlation normalizing
And the pilgrimage spot which every Indian visiting America must go pay their respects to…. Niagara.
http://www.filedropper.com/db1
DB: In 2009 the foreclosure market is the housing market.
Still no hits on weaver or DB housing or DB or hits on excerpts from the article…
I know, I disappoint.
https://njrereport.com/images/sueadlerunemployment.gif
Never gets old
sync – Why Niagara?
will short sales be getting easier here? is there more than one way to get this started with a realtor? How should we in the metro area be approaching the market now? Is it to early to begin looking with winter 2009 or spring 2010 in mind? will cash be king?
Seeing as how this is 24 hours of all India, 2 questions:
1. Anyone else notice that pretty much all Indian members of the comments section have handles beginning with “s”?
2. Brits are obsessed with curries, in fact it is now the #1 food in the UK. Do any Indians have a similar craving for fish and chips?
I love fish and chips. I could eat that all day but my doctor would mind.
As for Niagara, idk. Every family member I’ve ever hosted here on their visits to the US insists on going.
gwen #15,
If cash is king and our existing properties are going to be worth less and less with every passing day, does it make sense to just hoard cash instead of putting more and more into 401Ks?
grim that graphic is hilarious!
529 question:
I’m fishing around 529 sites trying to find an answer but coming up empty so I’ll try here. Anyone know if I can change 529 plans without penalty for an existing investment? What I would like to do is move from my current plan (IL) to a different one. Hoping it is like an IRA Rollover, doable without penalty. Anyone know?
Mmmmmmm. Curry
will this effect volume even more? are we about to see a big rise in foreclosures?
unemployment benefits must be getting close to the end for first wave of latoffs
grim,
Do you have the numbers to translate the 40% drop from Q109 into % off from the 2006/2007 peak. My rough calc is a 52% drop
PGC:
Last paragraph I posted from the WSJ piece:
Median prices in the first quarter of 2009 dropped to $446,000 in New York, down 19% from the peak of $552,000 set in the second quarter of 2007. Deutsche Bank forecasts a total peak-to-trough decline of 52.1%.
I’m assuming the 52.1% decline applies to the NY Metro.
hola everyone.
interesting little diddy of a news article.
SAS
From Bloomberg:
Wall Street Calls Obama’s Mortgage-Market Debt Plan a Burden
The Obama administration’s plan to shore up the market for mortgage bonds by forcing banks to keep some on their books faces resistance on Wall Street, as bankers call the measure burdensome and a hindrance to new lending.
The proposal, one of dozens of measures included in the financial-industry overhaul Obama unveiled today, requires firms to “retain 5 percent of the credit risk” whenever they package loans into bonds. Doing so may encourage banks to stiffen underwriting standards and prevent subsequent bond defaults, the Treasury Department said in its proposal.
The stipulation creates “undue restrictions” that may thwart “consumer and business lending via securitization” and “impair broader economic recovery,” according to a statement today from the American Securitization Forum, a New York-based group whose members include Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc.
52% decline?
if that happens, look out.
what do you think this does to hoboken?
yikes
btw,
I have an email designated for the site, if anyone wants to contact me offline.
sas_njreport@yahoo.com
no interviews.
SAS
if your wondering, the answer is yes.
I am coming out of my shell a little bit.
like i said, if someone tries to hold my feet to the coals and plays hardball.
I like to sing like a canary.
keep that in mind.
SAS
OT question. Seeking comments.
I have an opportunity to purchase a single family house from a family member for 300K in Fair Lawn.
The plan is to rent the house out to multiple individuals.
1. How do I go about finishing the transaction privately? Do I need an attorney? Title search? etc…
2. Is it legal to rent a house to multiple individuals?
Thanks.
“Agreement avoids police layoffs in Rahway”
http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-14/1245211662322990.xml&coll=1
SAS
#29:
Is it legal to rent a house to multiple individuals?
I think so… Half of New Brunswick does that with Rutgers students.
S
Sastry, what is legal in NB isn’t necessarily legal elsewhere. Codes vary.
That said, keep them on the down low, quiet and unobtrusive and chances are no one will care.
alot of you bloke are forgetting something when you read articles like this.
pump and dump.
you can make money on the dump too.
who is doing the dump? who stands to gain from the dump?
answer: the same people whom led you on the pump.
I’m a RE bear, no doubt.
but, i ain’t a sap.
SAS
buy buy buy!
re:29
I think that Fair Lawn does not allow overnight on street parking. So just make sure you have enough off street parking for all tenants or they dont have vehicles.
Bring it on; make me wise, they way most average idiots are wise, for pulling out of an offer the wife still regrets not being able to hold to in May; bring it on; affordability is a huge problem; bring it on; many on this board may bluster about getting their guns, maybe I’ll just get a house; bluster on boys and bring it on !
jc guy,
dude, what? :|
I think he wants 50% drop so he can buy a house.
I speak frustration fluently.
jerseycityguy,
yee bloke. I too lost a my shirt on a flat in London. I wish someone would of brought it on so I could of kept my shirt.
Instead, I flew back to the state wearing nothing but a barrel.
Not sure what you were getting at with your wife comment.
but, let me tell son… I’ve been done married 5 times. I wish I wouldn’t of brought it, or at least some other chap could of brought it on. I’d have alot more step in my gillies.
oh well,
SAS
that rebecca jarvis lunch bid is at 2k.
anyone here bidding on it?
“rebecca jarvis”
lol. yee better off getting a $1k/hr call girl.
this sweet pea doesn’t know anything about the real world.
tell you the truth, anyone in the financial press doesn’t know sh*t from shinola.
You mention black economy to anyone of those fellows, and they drool on themselves with deer in headlights look.
cat bonds anyone? charge off fraud?
ha ha ha
SAS
#24 grim,
I have issues with reading the fine print at the end. Must do better.
Anyway what point in time does that bring the median price back too? I can assume that would bring prices back into the late 90’s
#30 SAS
I think this one will be more interesting to watch.
http://www.nj.com/news/jjournal/westny/index.ssf?/base/news-0/1245133532318100.xml&coll=3
This will be resolved using Hudson County rules.
Regarding Fair Lawn – my friends in that town told us last summer that you can only park overnight on the street if you first notify the police that you are doing so. So it sounds like it is just meant for the occasional guest.
Grim:
check your mail. merry Xmas from Deutsche Bank
3b,
I’ve got one for all time top ten list:
All this can be yours for $1,395,000 (that’s right) and the best part!!! The tax bill is only $22K..BOOOYA!!
http://www.cliftoninfo.com/homepage.htm?in_listing=5560238&ref=cl
20.leftwing says:
June 17, 2009 at 8:46 pm
529 question: I’m fishing around 529 sites trying to find an answer but coming up empty so I’ll try here.
Anyone know if I can change 529 plans without penalty for an existing investment?
What I would like to do is move from my current plan (IL) to a different one. Hoping it is like an IRA Rollover, doable without penalty. Anyone know?
left: Yes. Just don’t use NJ’s plans, they suck. Also, you are not allowed to take state tax deductions twice on the same money. As an example, if you lived in NY, created a 529 and took a deduction, and then moved to PA and rolled to another 529, you would have to recognize the original deduction from NY in order to receive the new deduction for PA……..anyone please correct any misstatements of fact.
I know I’m a little slow but please translate this for me: are you trying to tell me that we’re going back to 1998-1999 levels? Seriously, is that what I’m reading from DB? And if so, this will bottom out in, what, 2011? 2013? Please edumacate me.
This is grim with that DB NYC RE Report…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlduLlX3mHw&feature=related
Zieba,
I agree it’s definitely in the top ten for overprices. The side yard is a grass strip running down the driveway and the backyard is pretty much the garage. That house looks like a multi from the outside as well. Didja check out the last line in the description?
“OWNER HOLDS NJ REAL ESTATE LICENSE.”
This just says it all.
46. Zeiba
MY EYES!!!!!!!
Not satisfied with granite counter tops the owner decided to go with the fake stone look throughout the facade.
This house is wrong…just wrong going on in every room. For starters, there’s a stone column in the kitchen. Right next to what looks to be a wrought iron patio set. There’s an iron gate by the staircase leading downstairs! One room is done up in orange, white and baby blue. The bedroom has a fireplace, Spanish tile and a mirrored Italian set…
Can you imagine what it must cost to heat and cool this monstrosity!!!
Go on the virtual tour and the photo of the attic room definitely has some kind of ceiling problem. My guess is that one of the many sunroofs are leaking.
This realtor needs a new realtor.
52. Zieba
Looks like someone’s grandma from the old neighborhood designed the place.
Fish & chips with mushy peas, with a glass of lime juice cordial.
(now back to lurking).
lisoosh says:
June 17, 2009 at 8:31 pm
Seeing as how this is 24 hours of all India, 2 questions:
2. Brits are obsessed with curries, in fact it is now the #1 food in the UK. Do any Indians have a similar craving for fish and chips?
#46 – Duckies house on steroids.
dream/sync –
Proper British chips?
lisoosh, how the heck would I know? :-) I had fish and chips once in a tourist-trap pub at Heathrow, I am guessing that came closest to the ‘real thing’.
The strange thing is that everyone took the DB’s March forecast fro 47% drop in stride, now everyone is excited about the “improved” 40% drop. The issue I have with these numbers is that they all lump together very diverse parts of the metro area with very different idea of affordability and very different ratio of homeowners to renters. In fact, if the average drops by 40% but the price ratios say Chatham/say Rahway/say Elisabeth/say UWS/say Williamsburg/say South Bronx return to where they’ve been in the early to mid 90s, most of NJ places where the contributors of this blog would like to live will only see small declines. The recession’s economic factors are actually pushing in this direction (toward the return of 90s distributions).
if the average drops by 40% but the price ratios say Chatham/say Rahway/say Elisabeth/say UWS/say Williamsburg/say South Bronx return to where they’ve been in the early to mid 90s, most of NJ places where the contributors of this blog would like to live will only see small declines.
Where will the larger declines happen, IYO?
#46 Zieba,
A house only a real house wife from NJ could love.
From the Record:
Passaic’s Mexican food distributors forced to trim workforce
Mexican food distributors, the city’s economic “backbone,” are reeling, being forced to trim workforce and cut production in the face of a sharp decline in consumer spending.
La Flor Mexicana, one of the larger companies, early this year closed its doors. Oaxaca Mexican Products Inc. and Puebla Foods each are streamlining their operations through layoffs and furloughs, as business has fallen off as much as 25 percent.
These entrepreneurs, who dispatch delivery trucks throughout the Northeast, say they’ve been forced to cut jobs and production because their customer base — mostly immigrants from Mexico — is suffering from unemployment.
This one in Madison is down to 450k. It’s original list was 625k or higher
http://www.trulia.com/property/1072120367-164-Greenwood-Ave-Madison-NJ-07940
Green shoots?
#64 – Yes, originally listed at $625k.
It is UC, so someone must have thought it a deal.
Don’t know if it is or not, but it is certainly a better deal at $450k than at $625k.
# 64 grim,
In March 07 pos capes that hadn’t been worked on since Nixon era were listing for 525 to 550k.
To show how far Madison is down, here’s a renovated larger cape for 469k.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Madison-Boro_NJ_07940_1108408838
A foreclosure auction in Chatham? Can’t be.
http://www.trulia.com/foreclosure/2005981083–Kings-Rd-Chatham-NJ-07928
I like this ranch in Warren. Looks like the current owner did a lot of work on it.
http://www.trulia.com/property/1079914777-10-Mundy-Ln-Warren-NJ-07059
#67
Purchased in 2004 for $375k.
Came on the market at $549,000 (MLS# 2309450), was reduced to $509k and expired after 226 days. Relisted under MLS 2397075 at $519.9k, reduced down to $460k with no takers. That one expired after 198 days. The most current listing, MLS# 2683487, came on at $480k (hey, they can hope), but is now back down to $465k. Current time on market is 32 days.
Last listing was another fishing expedition, coming on at $480k after they had no takers at $460k. Heck even the current list has little basis in reality. If they couldn’t sell it at $460k last June, there ain’t no way it’s $465k this year.
Oh, scratch that, they completely remodeled the kitchen between the last listing and current.
Ouch.
Had lunch at Arno yesterday and sat at a table next to Jim Cramer. I stll feel like I can use another shower.
Sorry. Didn’t listen closely enough to tell you all what stocks you should be shorting next.
Stu, and others…
I asked a question about the appraisal coming in at 70% of the last assessed price — let’s say X. I presume one way to use it to my advantage is if the township comes and tries to appraise it higher than X if we go ahead with a couple of improvements. We are looking at changing the deck — from 8×10 to 12×20 [approx 11k], putting a small fence around the backyard ditch [approx 1.5k], and adding a heater + AC/dehumidifier in the basement — will make it a 3 zone thing [no idea how much that would cost]…
S
Gator, you probably are the expert on tax assessments and appeals. Could you please share your opinion on my previous post (#71)? I would like to have some ammunition ready just in case a need/opportunity arises.
S
#46 zieba: Yours wins, hands down.
What I am trying to understand is how much more housing prices in NJ will drop from this point in time. Specifically some of the bedroom communities to NYC such as Madison, Chatham, Summit and Millburn/Short Hills. Are we talking another 20%?
#68 & 69 grim,
Thanks.
Ouch indeed. renovated kitchen, 5 k lower list and 1 more year of carrying the house.
Green shoots?
“I have an opportunity to purchase a single family house from a family member for 300K in Fair Lawn.”
Especially with family, with whome one is tied together FOREVER, I would be inclined to treat any such deal in an arm’s-length manner. Use a lawyer, do & title search, and all the other things you would do with someone you did not know or trust. It will be best for longterm harmonious family relations.
what will happen in Bergen. Prices holding their own. take a look at the listings.
Sellers in denial?
Bergen?
66 – they don’t have the street address, could that be the cape on kings rd that went on the mls a few weeks ago for 299 (i think it was in the 400s a few years ago). if not thats two houses on that street. kings rd is really just chatham adjacent tho. not for the blue bloods.
Those poor baby boomers:
“They grew up during a time of cultural change, and now are being forced to redefine retirement at midlife.
The 77 million Americans in the Baby Boom generation face an economic storm: The Wall Street meltdown trampled their retirement nest eggs more than any other group. After losing jobs during what they thought would be some of their peak earning years, many are struggling to get back into the workforce. Health care costs are rising, and declining home values mean they might not be able to count on home equity to guarantee an easier retirement.”
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/retirement/2009-06-16-retirement-boomers-recession_N.htm
#78 ruggles,
I’m starting to think Kings rd is for people who stretched/over stretched to have a Madison address. There must be 5 house on trulia for Kings Rd in Madison and Chatham below 500k.
wondering what time frame DB is talking for this 40% decline?
#74- me too.
“A Wall Street Fairy Tale
Now that the danger appears to have passed, Wall Street honchos, with support from some in Congress, are telling themselves that the financial system was perfectly sound all along. We can’t afford their delusion.”
http://www.theweek.com/article/index/97713/A_Wall_Street_Fairy_Tale
#77 freddY: I see prices in Bergen dropping everyday.
80-safe. yes, if you wanted to live along fancy Route 124 (Short Hills to Morristown) and didn’t have money, Kings Rd was one of the only choices. It has the commuter train on one side and route 124/backs of stores on the other. also the power lines cross it at the madison/chatham border. it is right next to the lafayette section of chatham boro (which is very charming) but once you go 3 or 4 houses down Kings you don’t fee like you’re in chatham anymore. and it doesnt get decent again until well past the madison border. but you still can’t get away from the train.
#59 cobbler: 40% drop in Chatham, 40% drop in Paterson. No area will be immune.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/article;jsessionid=F728711C6A5D06D5276FBE7EA4245A42.w5?a=377694&single=1&f=19
That should be good for home values around NYC.
This is from Newsday and I have just one question, which one of you was this?
ops: Landlord had hidden cameras
Thu 18 Jun 2009
BY JOHN VALENTI
john.valenti@newsday.com
Full Article View
An East Patchogue man is under arrest Thursday after he allegedly installed surveillance equipment in the bedroom and bathroom of a tenant, Suffolk County Police said.
Louis Bosco, 44, of 635 South Country Road, was arrested at 9:57 p.m. Wednesday and charged with second-degree unlawful surveillance, police said. He was held overnight and is scheduled for arraignment in First District Court in Central Islip on Thursday, police said.
Described by police as “a self-employed handyman,” Bosco allegedly instead both video and audio equipment in the apartment rented to a tenant.
That equipment was later discovered by the tenant – who then notified police.
Police said the investigation is continuing.
Billy joel ready for divorce #3.
I sense a new album from the experience, or demolition derby with some houses in Oyster Bay
Does anyone think that the complete collapse of the NY market might give homeowners here who aren’t struggling better negotiating power with the banks? Like drop my mortgage payment (and don’t tack it on at the end) and don’t hurt my credit, or you get another house. I’d like to get a reduced mortgage like all those people the gov is helping.
Oradell price drops? no way i see any value
here’s some more Bergen denial-
MLS 2920264 Westwood
OLP-899k 2/09
currently-835k
purchased 3/07 830k
I don’t think there was any improvements but the taxes went from 14k in 06 to 15,600
grim/ket,
Any chance you can link to the DB report via a free hosting site?
“here’s some more Bergen denial”
some may not be in denial, they just don’t have a choice.
that have to “hope” to sell at a certain price, or they’ve just lost it all.
its like buying on margin, it goes up 5%, hey.. your really smart.
it goes down 5%, you’ve lost it all.
SAS
Ruggles opinion on King’s Road is spot on. We looked at many houses priced too good for Madison on this road and they all have either a train, powerlines or retail establishments in their backyards. A good example for Julie as to why she should bail on her future multi. Plus, you are not in walking distance of the train station, but you can feel and hear if your train is on time.
i know you blokes like to point fingers at the saps that bought in the market over their heads, but keep in mind two things.
1) most were fraudlent induced. I still think we will see lawsuits from homeowners against RE agents & mortgage industry.
2) maybe the dumb sap lost their job. perhaps, they had a decent job, could afford payments no sweat. Got a pink slip, and now can’t even get a job bagging groceries at the local Shop-Rite or the A&P.
SAS
“maybe the dumb sap lost their job”
I’m no hippie, but I believe in karma.
ask yourself, how safe is your job? and if your buck tooth boss came up to you and said, sorry we gotta let you go.
what would you do? are you ready for something of that nature.
Hark!…. you better be….
SAS
speaking of work, I best get on my merry way.
Good day
SAS
Where’s Gary?
Gary, get a mall kiosk or a distribution deal, and make a sh*tload of money with these new e-cigs. Catching on like mad.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/130595-big-tobacco-beware-the-next-big-story-stock-could-involve-e-cigarettes
CHiFI Bond of day, what do you think?
EASTMAN KODAK CO SR NT 9.20000% 06/01/2021
Price (Ask) 53.500
Yield to Worst (Ask) 19.281%
overall whats the story with oradell?
taxes, etc.
I’ve been thinking a bit about the economy lately. Namely, I’ve been thinking about an economy wherein both inflationary and deflationary pressures are pushing prices at the same time.
So I head over to FT Alphaville and find out someone has given that scenario a nifty name; compartflation.
As someone who works closely with Kodak on the industrial side (even been up to Rochester a few times), they are so far behind the curve with every new technology that they are most likely doomed in the long term. Their big mistake was not embracing digital and relying on their virtual monopoly around traditional film supplies. One by one they are selling off pieces of their company. It’s a real shame as they have incredible scientists working for them. It’s their management that is piss poor. Last time they invited us up their, the digital press they were trying to sell us wouldn’t run. And this is right in their own facility. Call it anecdotal, but it was quite embarrassing.
I can’t speak for bonds as I am not knowledgeable in this area, but I wouldn’t touch their stock with anything but money I was willing to lose.
#102,
So a Kodak guy is a RE expert now?? Remind me to skip your opinions.
#102 – they are so far behind the curve with every new technology that they are most likely doomed in the long term
I think I’d have to disagree with you on this. You could certainly argue that Kodak hasn’t had the best timing with their products but they’ve never lagged on the technology side.
Recession is over, but don’t look at this blog for a sign of a receovery, it’s all gloom and doom here.
“June 18 (Bloomberg) — The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits edged up last week, and the total receiving payments dropped for the first time since January, adding to evidence the job market is starting to thaw.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQWI5f7Zdyro
[74] NJones
Here are the exact price drops by town from today with date of true market bottom:
Madison – 26.487% drop, bottom @ 11/11/2010
Chatham – 24.392% drop, bottom @ 6/4/2011
Summit – 15.961% drop, bottom @ 2/5/2012
Millburn/Short Hills – 12.201% drop, bottom @ 11/18/2013
58.syncmaster says:
June 18, 2009 at 12:21 am
lisoosh, how the heck would I know? :-) I had fish and chips once in a tourist-trap pub at Heathrow, I am guessing that came closest to the ‘real thing’.
sync: In NYC. The lead singer of Depeche Mode’s favorite place. It is walking distance from where he lives….
http://asaltandbattery.com/
Frank,
Four of the seven closed properties in Hoboken last week lost tens of thousands of dollars.
Sen,
Way off on the Summit numbers, bottom will be 2/8/2012.
Tosh,
Gimme an example. I know you are big into photography and probably have a lot of experience on the consumer side. I was referring to their print industry related equipment. They have already sold off their medical imaging business which was making them good money (for survival). I don’t doubt your opinion one bit, btw. I probably have a narrow focus.
608,000 jobless claims this week.
Happy days are here again!
Hoboken market is on fire, 18 UC this week vs. 8 last week.
Where’s the recession??
http://hudson.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=29096ab8-8ffb-498b-9519-a183273f4438&Report=Yes
Frank,
Your opinion to me is worse significantly less than the dog droppings one occasionally steps in.
Sastry – Apologies for the delay. S till trying to get caught up. What town is this?
Grim or someone else with GSMLS access. Can you give me an anticipated close date on 20 Bodwell in Millburn? Thanks.
The list indicates the premium that a highly ranked school system(Millburn) commands. The rents in well regarded school systems are very high also. You would be hard pressed to find a 3 bedroom townhouse for less then $2200 in Montgomery, West Windsor, Princeton Etc.
Hoboken 1 bedrooms are asking $418,169 on average. 100 average DOM. Average asking price = $574 / sq ft.
Housing boom continues in Hoboken.
#133,
Stick to taking pictures, leave RE to people that know it.
#90 freddy: Oradell is dropping too, and the taxes are hideous. You also have a small group of morons there trying to stop Walgreens from opening a store on Kinderkamack Rd.
I feel bad for Kodak they basically invented so many great things yet have been mismanged to death. They either have to turn around in 5 years or go belly up based on how much cash they have.
They say debt is the new equity so unless they go to liquidation, in Chap 11 the senior bondholders get the company and you can get paid 20% interest till that happens. Only a complete nut would touch their zero % dividend paying common stock as what is the point. I love kodak it is an american icon, they better pull it out.
thks 3b taxes hideous all over haworth,closter,cresskill,tenafly
#95 sas: most were fraudlent induced. I still think we will see lawsuits from homeowners against RE agents & mortgage industry
For the most part I do nto buy that at all. Here we go again with AMerican refusing to take resoponsibilites for their actions.
Waaah, waaahh, it is not my fault. My realtor/mtg broker made me buy this house. Nobody forced anybody to buy, except perhaps a spouse.
How many time have we had posters come on and say my spouse is really pissed at me, she/he wants to buy now. They are afraid they missed the boat, everyone else has a house I want one too.
#100 freddy:overall whats the story with oradell?
taxes, etc.
Prices rapidly dropping, outtrageous taxes, small dumb group of people opposing a Walgreens, Ridgewood wannabe.
grim [109]
My algorithm is better than yours and Douche Bank’s combined!
Your assumptions must include a successful bid by Overlook Hospital to allow a helipad to bring in stroke patients. I am assuming the NIMBY’s of Summit will never let it happen.
#110 – I suppose the most obvious example would be the Kodak DCS. It’s a very early Digital SLR for the consumer market released in `91. Very expensive, just too early. Kodak have been doing research in digital imaging since the early 70’s and just jumped the gun.
I know Kodak was (is?) a big player in the print industry and I don’t know much about that so I can’t address it.
I don’t doubt that Kodak will eventually go belly up. It isn’t from lack of trying though. Kind of sad.
If Kodak is reading this…. could you please manufacture Kodachrome in 4×5 again? How `bout in 120?
Some realtors should really be arrested for the role they played. One sleezy realtor in my town did tons of open houses during bull market, she always had her sleezy mortgage broker with her at the open house. She loved immigrant and dumb first time buyers, would run sale through with her own mortage broker, own appraiser, her own lawyer, ever her own home inspector and CO expiditer. Even better she said all her friends would get paid out of close, buyer did not have to worry about up front money. Tons of people got stuck with lemons from her during 2005-2007. Those people should have known better, but of course they didn’t the realtor only targeted the fools and we all know a fool and his money is easily parted.
#105 frank: Where exactly does it say the recession is over. Continuing claims dropped (marginally), first time claims are up. How does that equal recession over?
You really cannot be that dense, can you?
#105 frank: Where exactly does it say the recession is over. Continuing claims dropped (marginally), first time claims are up. How does that equal recession over?
You really cannot be that dense, can you?
#117 frank: You should go and get yourself another love shack in Hoboken.
Chi, #107 –
Actually, this place is more popular with regular Brit expats:
http://www.chipshopnyc.com/
Plus they are big on beer!
NEW YORK (AP) — Rudeness could land New York City transit riders in jail.
A new campaign reminds subway and bus riders to give up reserved seats to the elderly or disabled.
Those who refuse could be fined $25 to $50 – or even face up to 10 days in jail.
Signs are going up this week in thousands of subway cars and buses.
#105 Frank-N-Furter- looking at new claims as an indication of green shoots? You should be jumping up and down and screaming from the roof tops that the economy is in full bloom based upon the latest report no?
By the way did you even read the article?
Quote “Forty-five states and territories reported an increase in new claims for the week ended June 6”
Here are the U-6 numbers which is a better long term indicator than the U-3 because it includes people who have been unemployed for a year or more.
Notice any kind of trend here?
2008 %
Jan 9.0
Feb 9.0
Mar 9.1
April 8.2
May 9.8
June 10.1
July 10.4
Aug 10.9
Sept 11.2
Oct 12.0
Nov 12.6
Dec 13.5
2009
Jan 13.9
Feb 14.8
Mar 15.6
April 15.8
May 16.4
Yes – Frank-N-Furter you don’t need to break out the calculator to see that this number is getting larger every month and that 1 in 6 workers is now chronically unemployed.
A link to mir.com’s Kodak stuff for anyone interested in their work in early DSLRs. It’s a Malaysian site, so the English translation isn’t always the best but it does have a ton of info.
http://www.kellsirish.com/portland/index.html
So it was Kells Irish Pub for lunch and a bit of downtown Portland for the day yesterday. We shall see what adventures we have in store today – Omsi for the kids I know…
At Kells – The waiter says the twisted dollars stuck to the ceiling (it is covered with them) are really two quarters rolled up in a dollar bill then tossed to the ceiling and held there by magic. (I didn’t catch the trick – a tack? – wood ceiling – we wanted to keep the secret from Avery.)
At any rate – they do this all year then come St. Patrick’s Day celebration they take it all down and donate it to charity. Pretty good Reuben and sweet potato fries – fun atmosphere. I’d go there again in a heartbeat and just spend the day having beers and chatting with the staff.
Have a great day,
Cindy
Seneca,
Thanks for the market bottom dates and numbers.
Do you have any info on who is going to win the US Open? It would save me a lot of time (the last 15 minutes) of staring at rain soaked golfers.
You know the kids in the first row were copying those numbers down as they memorized them…
Regarding the Greenwood Ave house in Madison, scroll to the left and check out the view. At least you will always know if there is traffic.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/164-Greenwood-Ave-Madison-NJ-07940/39437677_zpid/
Cindy,
I saw that same ceiling trick, only done with playing cards at a fantastic restaurant in Santa Barbara. Gator will remember the name of the place. It was jazzy and cajun if I recall correctly.
Some more local anecdata. Friends in Glen Ridge told me this morning that Wachovia whacked their home equity line from 100k down to 12k because home prices were declining in. No more granite in their immediate future.
Stu it is The Palace Grill.
http://palacegrill.com/
http://asaltandbattery.com/
Chi, been there.
delicious.
#136 NJgator,
That’s a great location. My kid loves to watch traffic. /off sarcasm
when will housing prices become more rational in NJ?
This is one reason I am loathe to write off the suburbs long term. If anything, I would write off major 3/4th tier cities and satellite cities, but not the burbs.
“DETROIT — They call this the Motor City, but you have to leave town to buy a Chrysler or a Jeep.
Borders Inc. was founded 40 miles away, but the only one of the chain’s bookstores here closed this month. And Starbucks Corp., famous for saturating U.S. cities with its storefronts, has only four left in this city of 900,000 after closures last summer.
There was a time early in the decade when downtown Detroit was sprouting new cafes and shops, and residents began to nurture hopes of a rebound. But lately, they are finding it increasingly tough to buy groceries or get a cup of fresh-roast coffee as the 11th largest U.S. city struggles with the recession and the auto-industry crisis.
No national grocery chain operates a store here. A lack of outlets that sell fresh produce and meat has led the United Food and Commercial Workers union and a community group to think about building a grocery store of its own.
One of the few remaining bookstores is the massive used-book outlet John K. King has operated out of an abandoned glove factory since 1983. But Mr. King is considering moving his operations to the suburbs.
Last week, Lochmoor Chrysler Jeep on Detroit’s East Side stopped selling Chrysler products, one of the 789 franchises Chrysler Group LLC is dropping from its retail network. It was Detroit’s last Chrysler Jeep store. . . .”
I said years ago that Detroit would become a no-man’s land, hole of a city, surrounded by civilization, and fenced off along many of its borders by neighboring suburbs. Now the only thing missing is the fences and community-led roadblocks on secondary surface roads out of town.
The city is selling homes for $100. Another program will pay you 25K to buy and live in a home there. Maybe a new social experiment is in order. Remember the Paris Commune?
clot, you watching the game?
i’ll take USA 2-1 in my homer pick of the year.
(real score: Brazil 4-1)
John our resident bond expert, care to chime in?
US government says bonds seized in Italy are fakes.
“They’re clearly fakes,” Stephen Meyerhardt, a spokesman for the U.S. Bureau of the Public Debt in Washington, said yesterday. “That’s beyond the fact that the face value is far beyond what’s out there.”
Meyerhardt said Treasury records show an estimated $105.4 million in bearer bonds have yet to be surrendered. Most matured more than five years ago, he said. The Treasury stopped issuing bearer bonds in 1982, Meyerhardt said.
Had the notes been genuine, the pair would have been the U.S. government’s fourth-biggest creditor, ahead of the U.K. with $128 billion of U.S. debt and just behind Russia, which is owed $138 billion.
According to the Italian authorities, the seized notes included 249 securities with a face value of $500 million each and 10 additional bonds with a value of more than $1 billion, as well as securities purported to be “Kennedy” bonds. Meyerhardt said no such securities exist.
Nowadays, Treasury securities are issued electronically. The U.S. started converting all of its marketable debt from paper to electronic form in the 1980s.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=adc1HD7mWY4A
Nom – You can buy a house in Detroit these dats for less money than it would cost to buy a cup of coffee at Starbucks.
Continuing claims story on DailyFX
“The drop is partially attributed to a decrease in new claims two weeks ago from 625K to 605K but cannot possibly account for the entirety of the drop. What is in fact occurring is that employees laid off early in the recession and still unable to find work are no longer receiving benefits which generally expire after twenty six weeks. While this may be a worrying sign of future spending and savings habits, the emergency benefits passed by Congress extend benefit rolls by up to thirty three weeks. That figure posted a sharp gain of nearly 103,000 to approximately 2.36 million”
I second asaltandbattery.
They have a whole variety of fish you can choose from, which really separates them from the other run of the mill fish n chips joints. They also sell Boddingtons :P
#141 safeashouses:when will housing prices become more rational in NJ?
They are already on the raod to being more ratonal. Some sellers may have to be dragged kicking ans screaming along the way, but that is the way it goes.
Watch out below, falling approval ratings for B.O.
The Rundown
Is ‘Smooth Sailing’ Over for Obama?
By Ben Pershing
President Obama’s No. 1 priority for his first term, health care reform, has gotten off to a halting start in the Senate. His next major goal, climate change legislation, is even further from completion. And there’s little indication that the major financial regulatory overhaul the president unveiled yesterday is anywhere near reaching his desk. With those initiatives and others pending, is Obama’s window for major legislative action beginning to close?
That’s the question raised by a pair of new surveys, both of which show overall support for Obama’s policies slippling. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found small but measurable drops in Obama’s approval rating and his handling of the economy. “These rising doubts threaten to overshadow the president’s personal popularity and his agenda, in what may be a new phase of the Obama presidency,” the Journal suggests in its dramatic write-up of the poll, while MSNBC quotes pollster Peter Hart saying: “There is no more smooth sailing for the administration. They are going to have to navigate in pretty choppy waters.”
The New York Times/CBS News poll reached similar conclusions, finding that the public is increasingly concerned about the budget deficit and that fewer than half of respondents approve of Obama’s handling of health care and the auto industry. So is Obama’s presidency really slipping away? The situation doesn’t appear quite that dire. The NYT/CBS poll still puts Obama’s approval rating at 63 percent, and his overall poll average has barely budged in two months. Also on the bright side for the White House: The WSJ/NBC survey found just “25 percent hold a favorable view of the Republican Party, which is an all-time low for it in the poll.” So even if the public is wary of Obama’s policies, it isn’t exactly rushing out to embrace the opposition.
Continue reading at Political Browser »
Posted at 8:31 AM ET on Jun 18, 2009 | Category: The Rundown
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I posted this in the DB thread yesterday but it was the last post, so I guess I’ll repost it here.
[So Deutsche Bank says, “Financial firms have cut more than 183,000 jobs in the Americas in the global credit crisis, driving down prices and rents in the New York area.”
And Wall Street Journal says, “The Labor Department says financial-services firms shed 30,000 jobs in May and have lost nearly 600,000 jobs since December 2006.”
That’s the problem with statistics in the news and why I never fully believe them. WSJ at least cites the DOL. Where does DB get their 183,000? There’s a huge gap there.]
And from U.S. News
Thursday, June 18, 2009
WASHINGTON NEWS
Polls Show Declining Support For Obama Decisions
New polls show the public increasingly concerned about the budget deficit, amid signs that the support for White House’s economic policies may be slipping. During NBC Nightly News’ lead story, Chuck Todd said an NBC/Walls Street Journal poll suggests “the honeymoon is coming to an end for President Obama, but it’s not personal, it’s professional, as now the public appears to be judging the President on some of his actions. And right now, there’s a growing concern about the budget deficit, and some of this government interaction into the economy on things like GM.”
The Wall Street Journal says that the public’s “rising doubts threaten to overshadow the president’s personal popularity and his agenda, in what may be a new phase of the Obama presidency.” While “there’s good news for the administration, too, including tentative support for Mr. Obama’s health-care plan and approval of his nominee for the Supreme Court,” the poll “suggests Mr. Obama faces challenges on multiple fronts, including growing concerns about government spending and the bailout of auto companies.” Nearly seven in 10 “respondents said they had concerns about federal interventions into the economy.” However, The Politico reports, “46 percent think the economy will get better in the next year the highest level of optimism in four years.”
AFP reports the President’s 56% overall approval rating in the NBC poll, but reports that “among independent voters, Obama fell from 60 percent approval versus 31 percent to 46 approving against 44 disapproving.”
Meanwhile, the New York Times analyzes its own poll, reporting that “a substantial majority of Americans say…Obama has not developed a strategy to deal with the budget deficit.” The poll “found a distinct gulf between Mr. Obama’s overall standing and how some of his key initiatives are viewed, with fewer than half of Americans saying they approve of how he has handled health care and the effort to save General Motors and Chrysler.”
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/politics/bulletin/bulletin_090618.htm
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/44/2009/06/18/is_smooth_sailing_over_for_oba.html?wprss=44
missing wash post link
As for Kodak, before this morning when was the last time anyone here gave them any thought? Now think back 30 years. Just ask GM, the world has changed — and built up its industrial base in the aftermath of WWII.
“You can buy a house in Detroit these dats for less money than it would cost to buy a cup of coffee at Starbucks.”
True but an houre after Starbucks, all one has to do is urinate. With a house in Det., well, one is stuck with a house in Det.
As a FishNChips connoisseur, I would have to take ASaltandBattery as number 1. It also helps that they gave Bobby Flay a good chinning in one of his throwdowns.
Atlantic Ave is next.
And for those west of the Hudson in NJ. This is worth the trip to Kearny.
http://argylerestaurant.com/
Now I have mushy peas with malt vinegar on my mind.
Well in Kodaks case after WWII the Japs just took everything they invented and tweeked and tweeked it until it was a better product than Kodak and then stole their business, ouch. A 60 year beating.
Shore Guy says:
June 18, 2009 at 10:03 am
As for Kodak, before this morning when was the last time anyone here gave them any thought? Now think back 30 years. Just ask GM, the world has changed — and built up its industrial base in the aftermath of WWII.
“You can buy a house in Detroit these dats for less money than it would cost to buy a cup of coffee at Starbucks.”
And with a $15K first time tax credit, If the balance can be used for repairs to the property, it could be the kick start that reigon needs.
[27] sas
Seems that yahoo doesn’t recognize your email, sas.
Or perhaps it is a government conspiracy???
I’m not sure if this link will work, but I thought this was funny. How to add a room to your house and make it Boomer Friendly.
Let it scroll through all three frames.
http://www.viz.co.uk/images/ads/7.gif
Interesting view of the future.
Bye Bye Beer bottles.
http://www.cclcontainermedia.com/pr/pr-DosEquis.html
Is the new financial regulation going to shut down FNM/FRE by requiring them to hold 5% of their securitizations??
Beware of open houses…
http://www.baristanet.com/2009/06/house_hunter_gets_naked_in_jac.php#more
I wonder what it would cost to heat this one in Warren for 639k.
http://www.trulia.com/property/1077995373-128-Mount-Horeb-Rd-Warren-NJ-07059
According to tax records, it’s now listed for 19k over 04 purchase and 81k below 2005 purchase.
Some company paid 1 million for it in 2002. Maybe it was a much larger lot that was later subdivided?
Green shoots?
So,
Stu buys a house in Det for $1 and sells it for $15,000 to Little Gator for $15,000. Little Gator gets a $15,000 tax credit and then lets the city take the land for nonpayment of taxes. Sounds like there is no way for the “stimulus” to be abused.
Now I know what Jeff Spicoli did after he finally got through High School, he went to work at Treasury.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uf5rIuJPTt0&NR=1
must edit.
#156 – Well in Kodaks case after WWII the Japs just took everything
Kodak’s primary business in the post war years was film (pre too). They remained dominant player in that pretty much the entire time.
I’m not discounting Kodak’s camera business, it’s just not where most of their money was coming from; chemicals and film.
Your argument would be valid with regards to Graflex.
Baristanet:
House Hunter Gets Naked In Jacuzzi
http://www.baristanet.com/2009/06/house_hunter_gets_naked_in_jac.php
“This perve might have mistook the meaning of ‘open’ house?”
#150 It may depend on how financial services jobs ar defined.
I can tell you as far as Wall St broker dealer firms, employment levels have dropped dramatically and are back at 2000 levels.
“are you trying to tell me that we’re going back to 1998-1999 levels?”
gary,
DB dropped a bomb indeed, claiming 52% off of 2006 peak.
That would equate to May 2000 prices using CS Metro NY.
If you use the less volatile OFHEO NJ HPI index, that means we go back to Mar 1999.
Veto,
Works for me. Bad news is, the rise in taxes may negate any price reductions.
Buggered again.
For me, the jacuzzi-bator article has to be the greatest article ever witnessed on the blog.
He was dscribed as having a GREAT tan…..hahahhaha
biggest declines will happen in the marginal areas— more than an hour from the city, bad school districts, low income, crime problems. As prices come down overall, people who were previously priced out of more desireable areas will go there, causing disproportionate effects in less desireable areas
#173 skeptic: And areas that were considered on the upswing, but are really not.
And wannabe towns, that will rediscover that they really only are middle class. And all the busy streets, power lines, near the railroad tracks houses, and all the waay over improved houses etc.
Gator and Stu,
It wasn’t me, I swear! I have never had a good tan, I burn.
well, that first half was awful. beasley playing his way off the 2010 roster. altidore with a few turnovers.
the defense is soft.
yeah, it’s ugly.
Stan (172):
Great things are happening in Montclair!
Is it generally possible to get closing costs covered by the bank on a short sale purchase? Also, what is the average total closings costs?
Party on Wayne, party on Garth.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124519444446620867.html
The intruder is a white man in his mid-thirties, 5’7″, 175 pounds. He has brown eyes, brown hair thinning at the front, a hairy chest and a good tan.
Hummm, do we know anyone with a Hairy Chest?
“Bad news is, the rise in taxes may negate any price reductions.”
Shore Guy, wouldnt that just suck.
My thumb in the air prediction is that taxes will level off while prices collapse.
already i see this in my county, the last tax increas was not as drastic compared to bubble years when house prices were increasing 15% per year. lets hope this trend catches on.
Veto,
And what about when the public-pension bill, which Corzine is shorting $1B this year, has to be paid? I don’t see any serious cost cutting going on at the municipal level and there are a LOT of costs to fund.
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.
“I don’t see any serious cost cutting going on at the municipal level and there are a LOT of costs to fund.”
Shore, i see big cuts in our future. When those running the show realize that the next economic recovery bus will not be stopping in NJ for at least another five years, we will have no choice but to take a sledge hammer to local budgets in a manner that resembles the watermellon smashing mullet wearing bafoon from the eighties, Gallagher.
184, What past history makes you believe that this will actually happen? In my opinion, by looking at prior behavior and decisions, things will continue to be pushed into the future for as long as possible. Then we’ll stick our hands out for a bailout. Too big to fail!
Boy caught up in custody case states he wants to stay in Brazil, not live in New Jersey and hey, who can blame him?
http://www.salon.com/wires/ap/us/2009/06/17/D98SRA8G1_us_brazil_us_custody_battle/index.html
[164] shore
Mmmmmm. I like it. I will have to look into that.
Green Shoots!
From the Nelson Rockefeller Institute of Government Report on April State Income Taxes:
Total personal income tax collections in January-April 2009 were 26 percent ($28.8 billion) below the level of a year ago. In April 2009 personal income tax receipts fell by 36.5 percent, or $18.2 billion.
Try reconciling these percentages with the official unemployment numbers. What percentage of these personal returns have tax deductible losses would be illuminating. A minority I would guess.
The Lucky ‘Winners’ are:
Arizona -54.9%
South Carolina -38.6%
Michigan -34.4%
California -33.8%
Vermont -33.1%
New York -31.8%
Rhode Island -30.4%
New Jersey -30.1%
Massachusetts -28.5%
Idaho -28.3%
Ohio -27.8%
Oregon 6-27.0%
Rest of States and Report can be viewed here.
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/2009-06-18-State_Revenue_Flash.pdf
Shore,
Can a 3-year old sign a deed?
Sean (188) –
This is the reason why property taxes won’t go down. It is the most stable revenue stream which the states have got. Cali is in such deep shiite partly because their revenue stream was dependent on capital gains and income taxes (Prop 13). Of course, they did not roll back their big spending programs undertaken during the dot-boom days.
I would have guesed John for the hottub, but we all know he’s 6’2 195 as he confessed yesterday.
:)
From Mish:
States in Deep Trouble Over Plunging Income Tax Revenues
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/06/states-in-deep-trouble-over-plunging.html
Includes NY and NJ
“What past history makes you believe that this will actually happen?”
Alap, i dont see history as an indicator of the preent or future in this case but taxes here were a huge problem in the 80s and we seemed to have worked it out for a while. we may be pushing for a bailout but when the fed tells all states ‘they aint getting nothing’, then we have no choice but to start slashing. this process takes time. govt is slow and bureucratic on purpose. we dont really even want govt to make quicl reactions to anything. its inneficient but checks and balances. union resistance is good, to a point, for all of us. If the economy gets way worse, things will be put into perspective and out of control rising taxes will stand out like a sore thumb more and more. its already started but it takes time. nobody was complaining about teachers and firemen when their house price was doubling every 5 years and their bonuses and incomes were 6 times that of the teachers and firemen.
Im not taking sides here, i think property taxes are too high too, but im just playing a little devils advocate to balance the perspectives.
[189] stu
I think shore was being facetious. But there are other folks you can do this with. For example, I would do this with a retired parent that is looking to cash out an IRA or 401(k) since that would be taxed at marginal rates. By the time the city seizes the house and fcuks up Dad’s credit, he is likely not going to care, and he has fewer assets in immovable accounts now, so he is that much more judgment proof.
I am waiting for the head tax to emerge… it would be so tempting for gov’t to do it– the most stable revenue stream possible. Everyone must pay $X to the gov’t each year. Not dependent on income, cap gains, property ownership, anything.
Interesting ideas here. Thanks for posting, will add to my RSS feed.
Maybe we should start taxing bots. Interesting idea?
#195 skep-tic
I am waiting for the head tax to emerge
That could bankrupt John. Oh, you meant counting people.
193- I’ve become quite cynical to things of late. Just watching the stock market go up on this ridiculous news the way it is spun by the mass media really boggles my mind and makes me worry about this country. So i’ve accepted the fact that the gov’t will continue to come up with new ways to continue to push its problems out into the future. even if its not bailouts per se, there will be backhanded ways of covering pension obligations and such.
in regards to taxing that as my GFs would say I find that hard to swallow.
safeashouses says:
June 18, 2009 at 12:01 pm
#195 skep-tic
I am waiting for the head tax to emerge
That could bankrupt John. Oh, you meant counting people.
[200] “in regards to taxing that as my GFs would say I find that hard to swallow”
John, in the parlance of our times, ROFLMAO.
Can I add an F? “ROFLMFAO”
Even though he has tossed one group after another under the bus, you cannot call the Messiah disloyal when it comes to his friends.
http://legaltimes.typepad.com/blt/2009/06/justice-department-says-tax-nominee-is-qualified.html
For the record, I love Mary Smith. She is a very good person and I am pleased to know her. But her appointment is purely political—she is utterly unqualified for that post, IMHO. And I am sad for her because I think she will fail spectacularly in it, which I don’t want to see to a decent, albeit liberal, person.
“see happen” even
[202] John,
The dude abides. ROFLMFAO
“gov’t will continue to come up with new ways to continue to push its problems out into the future, there will be backhanded ways of covering pension obligations and such.”
Alap, yes but some things will never change, not even if home prices collapse 90%.
GAAP accounting rules themselves are a sham. Companies can claim lifo to make statements look good to investors but at the same time claim fifo to save tax liabilities. Its a legal tax loophole.
Pension accounting says that companies will predict what their annual return will be and use that number in their financial statements for pension assets instead of using the actual rate of return? wow this is a great country.
When you have the biggest economy, you can buy the biggest army and then you can make the rules and just adjust them in your favor whenever its convenient. Thats not going to change but even if this is gd 2.0 its not the end of american civilization. things will get better, even if they get worse first, but lets not expect miracles. property taxes will probably always be high in nj no matter what.
NJGator #114… Thanks for the offer to help. No problem at all with the delay. The town is Green Brook. The details of the situation are on Post #71 in this thread.
206 – yeah, thats what im saying. i dont expect things to get better on “hopes and dream” and promises of “change”. nothings changing nuts and bolts wise, only on the surface, anytime soon, if ever.
TechTicker:
“Massive Insider Selling”: Pure Supply and Demand Makes a Bears’ Case
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/266040/%22Massive-Insider-Selling%22-Pure-Supply-and-Demand-Makes-a-Bears%27-Case?
“Based on TrimTabs’ analysis of data since 1987, Biderman says every time the supply of stock rises at these levels, the market falls sharply. A notable exception was 2003, but the economy was set to rebound then and Biderman sees no evidence that’s about to happen now, as detailed here.”
“nothings changing nuts and bolts wise”
we’ve taken it so far that im now afraid that if we fix all of our problems, their would be no economy left to complain about.
Grim, I noticed the posts about getting emails like sas_njrereport@gmail.com, etc. Since you are using php, I am sure there are some modules that can be quickly reconfigured to create username/password combos and private messages, so people can easily exchange emails [and plenty of cyber s.x]. May be to preserve the “group discussion” format, the PM stuff can be barebones.
Something like phpbb is too much for this. May be a small script and a database one table for userids/passwords and one for messages. Keep it
I should not be biting more this month or so [have a trip to India mid July — after moving into the house end of June, and there are these little annoyance called work deadlines :) ]. However, I can do some quick check on whatever modules/scripts exist. Many guys here probably know much more than me about these things, so… if that happens I will just take credit for the suggestion :)
S
yikes (143)-
I’m TIVOing the carnage to watch later.
“Is the new financial regulation going to shut down FNM/FRE by requiring them to hold 5% of their securitizations??”
They already hold 100% of the credit risk of their securitizations.
[70] gator
“Didn’t listen closely enough to tell you all what stocks you should be shorting next”
That’s easy. Go to his website and short everytime he hits the “buybuybuy” button.
Boy, it seems no one wants to come here.
“(CNN) — Continental Flight 61, whose pilot died midflight Thursday while flying from Brussels, Belgium, to Newark, New Jersey, has landed safely, the Federal Aviation Administration and Continental Airlines said.
The Boeing 777 landed at Newark International Airport at 11:49 a.m. ET Thursday, the airline said, after the 61-year-old Newark-based pilot died “apparently of natural causes.”
No further details were given.”
Sastry – The average ratio for Green Brook is 93.19 this tax year. Assessments between 93.19 and 100% of market value would be upheld during an appeal.
I am not sure how much the value of the improvements you mentioned would add to an assessment. But if you are currently appraised at only 70% of your assessment, it sounds like you are overassessed.
If the town adds to your assessment, you could appeal it. You would probably need a new appraisal that takes into account the condition of the home after the improvements are added.
A successful appeal should knock your assessment down to 93.19% of market value.
The average ratio changes each tax year. Next years numbers could make it a totally different ball game.
NB – I am not an attorney. Just a stubborn PIA. You could always consult with an attorney who specializes in property tax appeals to get a more professional assessment.
Feel free to get my email if you have additional questions and don’t want to bore the rest of the crew.
http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/taxation/pdf/lpt/chap123/chap123som.pdf
Nom 214 – I made a wise ass comment about shorting whatever he recommends. My boss then piped up that she made a lot of money by listening to him (could have been many years ago).
I immediately shut up and went back to enjoying my fruit tart.
Stu,
re the insiders “if you are buying when they are selling, a cardboard box will be your dwelling”
Is there a chart which plots Insider Selling against the S&P?
Re: 142, Detroit
Went there for the Stanley Cup Finals with the kids, ages 8-14.
It was surreal walking around the next day. Nobody – nobody – around. It was like a ghost town, felt like it was totally abandoned.
Even the kids noticed it.
Not sure if this has been posted already, just heard it on the radio short while ago. Somewhat plays into today’s discussion about the overall drop in home prices in this area.
Re: condo auction at the Beacon in Jersey City
http://www.sheldongood.com/thebeacon.php
Comrade nom deplume says:
June 18, 2009 at 12:45 pm
Boy, it seems no one wants to come here.
“(CNN) — Continental Flight 61, whose pilot died midflight Thursday while flying from Brussels, Belgium, to Newark, New Jersey, has landed safely, the Federal Aviation Administration and
I have flown Continental, he problable died of old age.
Continental Airlines said.
The Boeing 777 landed at Newark International Airport at 11:49 a.m. ET Thursday, the airline said, after the 61-year-old Newark-based pilot died “apparently of natural causes.”
No further details were given.”
PGC #155 – The Kearney places use fries, not real chips.
In my book, use of reconstituted potato products is an instant disqualification.
Victorian(219):
I don’t know of a chart, but Value Line/Barron’s and various other online resources exist which allow you to track the largest Insider Buys and Sells in an index.
Vic #219
Is there a chart which plots Insider Selling against the S&P?
Given that insider selling is “highly localized” (to a sector, or often to a company), any correlations between overall insider selling and S&P will not yield much actionable information. It can be used to test a hypothesis like “insider selling intensifies when overall markets are going south”, but not the other way round. There aren’t enough insiders that can affect the S&P. The only exception, of course, is Goldman Sachs, whose power and reach I can only respectfully admire — the real shock and awe.
S
Victorian(219):
Insidercow has them, but it is a paid subscription site.
Here is an article showing their charts from 4/28.
http://www.mrswing.com/articles/Insider_Buying_and_Selling_Charts.html
Since all insider buy/sells must be EDGARized, I bet a smart IT person could mine EDGAR and automatically create these charts pretty easily.
NJGator #216… Should I make friends with the township tax people and initiate some conversation? A few k per year savings seems very tempting. What approach would you suggest (gentler the better)? I may be able to devote some time, but my wife is really good with nicely harassing people.
S
Just going over our Company benefit update presentation.
Our contribution of Family medical benefit portion just went up by 50%.
What will that do to Housing affordability?
anyone have any experience with FHA 203k loans? curious what sort of renovations are eligible
Sastry (227):
Just stick with the facts and do your homework. No need to be rude at all. The last thing your town wants to have to do is go to county tax court. If you know your sh!t and have valid proof of being over-assessed, they will settle with you out of court fairly. If you call the town lawyer and tell him he’s smoking crack, then he will gladly waste YOUR tax dollars taking the case to the courts where your rudeness will cost you a lawyer and some jacked up appraisal that your lawyer will receive half the kickback from. When your done, you will lose the entire discount for this year. Much easier to play nice with the town and stick to the facts.
SG #228…
One solution: Universal health care, with full bargaining/negotiating power for the government. “Discerning” people can opt out, like some opt out of public schools…
Sastry,
Or you could invite my wife over for a nice Indian tali and she would probably help you for free.
I got chance to switch to row one section 130 over row one Mezzaine level should I do it for the jets games.
John (233):
“I got chance to switch to row one section 130 over row one Mezzaine level should I do it for the jets games.”
I would take which ever seats provide you an expedient exit. The Jets are going to suck this year.
Just got off the phone with the USDA loan people. It seems I can get a direct loan with a subsidy towards PITI
now that I am out of work & out of unemployment. Tempting, 0 down 0 out of pocket.
Stu #232… true. Many of you know the address and are more than welcome to drop by…
I owe invites to many on this board already — wouldn’t have had the house if it weren’t for this blog. However, I don’t know how it’d work [veggie household that doesn’t have any booze or, for that matter, any major entertainment other than reasonably good veggie Indian/Fusion food]. Also, I’ve met only one person from the blog, so there is a natural fear of disappointing the visitor(s).
S
John, I say no, I’ve sat down there and you can’t really see anything develop. You’re close to the action, but can’t really follow it that well.
N.J. Assembly Budget chair says $400M windfall to be used for property tax rebates
TRENTON — Lawmakers today said they would immediately work on reviving property tax rebates for residents making $75,000 or less after Gov. Jon Corzine’s surprise announcement to delay a vote on the state budget because of an unexpected windfall from the tax amnesty program.
Assembly Budget Committee chairman Louis Greenwald (D-Camden) said lawmakers are looking to bring back the property tax rebates for those making up to $75,000, but could not immediately say how much the checks would be.
Greenwald also said lawmakers want to retain property tax deductions next year for households making up to $200,000. The proposed $28.6 billion state budget calls for eliminating property tax deductions for those making $150,000 or more.
Corzine today said the tax amnesty program has brought in at least $600 million, topping projections by $400 million. Votes on the state budget, proposed tax increases and an economic stimulus package were called off for today. Those votes will now take place next week.
Assembly Speaker Joseph Roberts (D-Camden), who vowed to use the money for property tax relief, said his caucus broke into applause when they heard news of the windfall this morning. All members of the Democratic-dominated Assembly are up for election this year.
Assembly Republican budget officer Joseph Malone (R-Burlington) said the announcement was a stall tactic.
“This may have been a Hail Mary,” he said. “I just hope we don’t do what we’ve always done and squander it.”
Malone said the extra money does little to change the state’s dire fiscal situation.
“It’s once again a one shot,” he said. “What happens after the one shot is gone?”
#223 lisoosh
I can deal with that, because at the end of the day the potato crop over here does not suit chips. Also most places won’t use lard, so you will never get the best.
For me it comes down to three qualities of the fish.
The quality of the Fish
How good is the batter.
How well it’s cooked.
Most places mess up the third as they cook the fish and chips at the same temp. Chips should be double cooked around 350 and fish should be single cooked around 380.
[234] stu
“The Jets are going to suck this year.”
I certainly hope so.
Nom,
They have no QB. Even if the new kid ends up being the Jet’s Eli Manning, it won’t be until some time in the 2010 season before we get to know it. Their receivers are getting old and they still don’t have a decent RB. Their defense should be alright though. My prediction is for 7 wins, and I’m a fan.
Time to kill? Here is a neat game from Stella Artois.
http://www.stellaartois.com/site#/en_US/courage/the-setting-sun
#235 mikeinwaiting,
Is that loan non-recourse?
Are you looking into farming?
Did deutche mention when they expect this bottom to occur?
Deutsche…knew i was missing a consonant when i saw my post.
Sastry 227 – There are a number of questions here that I don’t know the answer to. First off – the deadline for appealing an assessment for this tax year was April 1. I do not know if there is an exception that would allow you to file an appeal if you purchased the home after that date. I would call the Somerset County Board of Taxation ASAP and ask. If there is an exception, you likely only have a small window of time after the purchase to do it.
If you do work on the house and get an notice of added assessment this year, you can file an appeal off of that.
If neither of the above 2 apply, your only option would be to appeal for the 2010 tax year. If you prevail next year, you would not get back any money for overpayments this year.
If that is the route you must take, you might want to talk to your town’s tax assessor sometime this year, show them your proof that you are overassessed and ask if they would consider correcting the assessment before certifying it to Somerset County for the 2010 tax year. The advantage to the town for doing that is that they are on the hook for any school and county tax overpayments if you file an appeal an win. If they correct the assessment in advance, there is no overpayment. Not all town’s will do this – ours doesn’t – but it doesn’t hurt to ask.
As Stu said, be prepared with actual facts. Don’t rant and rave that your taxes are too high. Show them solid proof that your assessment is too high. And even in the face of solid proof, be prepared for them to tell you to take a hike. Our town has refused a settlement with us this year. Even though we have an appraisal $80k below our assessment and 4 recent sales in the neighborhood below our appraisal.
Good luck.
Safe 243 Good ?. I will check it out. Wasn’t planing on defaulting. Kind of hard to as they pay part of payment in line with income I think 26% was the cap on my end. No farming for me but as I live in Sussex it is considered rural so you can get on a SFH.
RE: 245
Only Grim and Kettle know.
Question:
Looking at a house that needs extensive repairs. The seller only wants cash offers. I want the house, but I also need a mortgage in order to purchase.
What are my options?
An update from House Hunter no more…hubby and I decided to continue to rent (after our current 3 years) but, we are moving to a new rental that has no end date, the longer you stay the better AND $550 less a month.
We are going to kick back and dream of our beach house we want to pay cash for in about 6-8 years!!!! booyaah
I feel like I will go into a little withdraw…no more realtor.com, no more open houses, is there a pill to take?
still researching the fundamentals of cali vs ny to see why their prices fell so much harder and faster than ours.
first, the 2000 census says NYC has way more bach degrees as % of population. that doesnt mean college educated people are not subprime but it helps and economy sustain stability and growth.
Also, i found this article below regarding cali being the subprime capital.
I was delighted that my inital claim that we are smarter and have less subprime than cali and phoenix can be backed by some data. i will keep looking but just wanted to share this positive news before anybody decided to drive off a cliff on the way to work.
California had most subprime loans, study says
Thursday, May 7, 2009
California was the center of the mortgage meltdown that led to the nation’s current economic crisis, as lenders in the state issued a majority of all recent subprime loans, says a nonprofit journalism group based in Washington.
“The market was hotter here than just about anywhere else in the country,” said Dustin Hobbs, spokesman for the California Mortgage Bankers Association.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/05/07/MNF417FUBR.DTL&type=business
“hubby and I decided to continue to rent”
househunter, will you change your handle?
more importantly, are you worried about hyperinflation making your downpayment disapear or will you be purchasing gold bullion and hiding in your closet, inside your winter boots, like many here?
By Dawn Kopecki
June 18 (Bloomberg) — Record-high demand for government- backed home loans is overtaxing the Federal Housing Administration and may weaken the integrity of Ginnie Mae mortgage bonds, a U.S. inspector general said.
“FHA will be challenged to handle its expanded workload or new programs that require the agency to take on riskier loans than it historically has had in its portfolio,” Kenneth Donohue, the inspector general for the Housing and Urban Development Department, told lawmakers today. “The surge in FHA loans is likely to overtax the oversight resources of FHA, making careful and comprehensive lender monitoring difficult.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aiM13.0sySZE#
FHA currently has a 63% market share!
Veto,
I dont think we will see hyper inflation unless the US Government really loses it ala revolution 2.0. I think we will see very high inflation (less then 100%/year)coupled with a substantial increase in taxation. But i also do not expect to inflationary effects for another 3 or 4 years
2 cents form a highschool janitor
Skeptic,
is there a double short FHA ETF? ;)
Another resale at 2004 prices.
http://www.trulia.com/property/1080708918-113-Donato-Cir-Scotch-Plains-NJ-07076
Yup. All these houses I’m finding with a few minutes of work at 04 prices must surely be outliers.
Veto..yes need to think of a new handle.
big thing for us is to stay in the district for my 13 y.o until High school. It is a concern what to do with the money saved…but hubby has some ideas. I mention gold to him about 3 years ago and he was not interested…darn it was about $500..
any ideas for new handles?
The $134B in Treasury bonds were fakes. Well, I don’t think anyone is really surprised by that.
It still leaves the question of who they thought they were going to scam? It’s a ridiculous amount of money bound to draw some scrutiny. You don’t counterfeit $10000 dollar bills or steal Bugatti Royales, they’re noticeable.
“Any ideas for new handles?”
how about ‘Renter’
Kettle, lifelong ivy league economists can’t agree if we will see inflation or not. im not touching that with aten foot pole.
“It still leaves the question of who they thought they were going to scam?”
Ken Lewis?
House Hunter,
How are you renting a place with no end date? Is this in a lease that a LL agreed to?
#261 tosh
Was there ever any doubt they would find otherwise. It is better to say they are fake and wait to see what happens. If someone steps up and says they are real, they are going to have to have a LOT of explaining to do.
Its like when a bank is robbed and the safe deposit boxes are emptied. Would you like to explain how those gold bars or large wedges of cash came into your possession.
While the explanation is plausible, I would not write off the chance that they are still real.
#264 – Ken Lewis?
He would have offered $200B for the $134B in fake bonds just to show them NY bankin’ guys what’s what.
#258
Safe, just saw one myself a minute ago in Ridgewood. I believe it was 353 Wastena Terrace at 2003 prices… It just sold at $650k.
Veto,
I am no ivy league economist, the Us gove doesnt have much choice in the matter given its debt level. either inflate or repudiate debt
Tosh,
regarding the bonds….
wouldnt a nation or VERY large bank have to be in on the deal? those arent exactly C notes, and would be verified by any organization transacting them. So what bank was trying to make a buck on the side?
skep (254)-
There’s your evidence that FHA is being primed as the gubmint’s new mortgage garbage can. You can only blow out Fannie/Freddie so many times.
Some of the FHA crap loans I see now make subprime look AAA.
We’ll be dealing with the fallout from all this 20+ years from now.
#270 – I suppose it would depend upon what sort of scam they were trying to run. A simple $1B in Treas in exchange for lunch mighty have worked for a while and involved no banks. But it would take a fool on the scale of KL to fall for that as HEHEHE pointed out, and I have it on good authority Kenny was hunting snipe that day.
OMG…..the Roubinator has to stop partying too hard….he looks hungover and maybe carrying an extra 20 pounds…
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/266515/Massive-Govt.-Spending-Prevented-a-Depression-But-%22There-Is-No-Free-Lunch%22-Roubini-Says?tickers=^DJI,^GSPC,SPY,DIA,TLT,TBT,TIP?sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
The next door neighbor got downsized this week; they’re outsourcing her position to India. She was there for 20 years. Someone please let me know what I’m missing here. If you’re not working, you don’t spend money. And if you don’t spend money, services and retailers, etc. don’t make money… and can’t hire… and don’t show a profit… and retract further… and cut heads… who don’t spend… and so on.
That’t fine, you want to keep chopping until you’ve ingested yourself, great! Go ahead and do so, but you better keep sending me a free f*cking check every week like you’ve been doing for months now. Business is down? F*ck you, pay me. The State is hurting for tax revenues? F*ck you, pay me. Graydon’s daddy has to keep his job to pay for equestrian lessons? F*ck you, pay me.
#270 – ket – You know, the more I think about it the less sense the whole situation makes. Unless they were using a fake bank as a way of verifying the fake bonds being exchanged for real cash. I may have to re-read The Big Con
Might make a good movie.
#268 Doyle,
Maybe next year houses will be at 01/02 levels and we can afford something decent in a non gang area.
I’m also seeing a lot of houses for rent and sale. When I’m looking at rental on realtor i click on agent’s other listings and am amazed at how often the house is for sale. 2 of the ones I posted today were for rent and for sale. I laugh at the ones that are 18x or more annual rent. good luck selling that one.
Gary,
Did you see my post about the e-cigs?
Scroll up.
Big bucks.
#274 gary,
Who needs jobs when we have credit and unemployment?
How come CEO jobs don’t get outsourced to China and India. How hard would it be to find a smooth talking bozo in one of those places to take the job for 10% of what the guy in the U.S was pulling in.
Seems like my old firm (that canned me last month) found a replacement for me. looks like my old job was filled with someone making $9 an hour with no benefits.
Green shoots?
scribe,
I did see the post. Do you think I can retire in a few years with that gig? :) I guess I get a bit leary when considering unchartered business ventures. But, I do look at every link and suggestion you give me and I do so appreciate the fact that you try to help! :)
re#261 toshiro – re: the fake T-Bills.
It’s a scam
Here’s a best guess at the scam.
Step 1: Take a large short position in US Treasury bonds.
Step 2: Get your Japanese friends to “smuggle” forged Treasury bonds into a country where you are likely to get “caught.”
Step 3: When the rumors fly and the bonds tank, close out your shorts.
Beats working.
RE: “The seller only wants cash offers. I want the house, but I also need a mortgage in order to purchase.
What are my options?”
Offer above asking.
safeashouses [279],
Hey, for $9 an hour, one should be able to buy a starter home in Glen Rock! Right? ;)
“I have it on good authority Kenny was hunting snipe that day.”
That’s what he calls his 15 martini lunch? Hunting snipe?
Friend of mine has one of those e cigs and was showing it off last weekend. I took a drag and have to admit it wasn’t bad. No smell at all and a familiar taste. He said he couldn’t believe they weren’t catching on faster.
Gary,
Here’s the key graph from that Seeking Alpha article:
Specialty Retailer magazine reports mall kiosks selling e-cigarettes generate about $50,000 in sales per month. There’s not much data out there, but it’s easy to see sales of e-cigarettes are soaring.
Make a bundle, why not?
I worry about you, son. :)
Ptrader, scribe
but but but but…. your using DRUGS………
Quick, we need a WAR ON TOBACCOO
pr,
I’ve been substituting smokeless tobacco tabs, and haven’t smoked for 100 days – according to my computerized quitkeeper.
There was no real plan. I read a story in the WSJ about the new generation of smokeless products, and decided to buy a couple of boxes of Ariva tabs at the Rite-Aid.
I’m amazed. So is everyone who knows me.
But, if not, I would get an e-cig.
They sell them at the Queens Mall.
I might get one anyway. I miss smoking, but I feel that I’ve now got 100 days of not doing the habitual stuff – lighting up first thing in the morning, etc.
Getting an e-cig now might re-instate the habit.
But, if I fall off the wagon, I’m buying one.
Dink…it means if we want to rent if for 3 years, 10 years, 15 years…we can. they are not selling the property ever…
Funny thing the FDA has been detaining and refusing importations of e-cigarettes since at least last summer.
You can smoke the real thing to your hearts content but if someone makes something that isn’t TAXed the government is all over it.
kettle,
That’s the thing. They declared war on smoking. It has become a war on smokers, not smoking. And human ingenuity being a wonderful thing, the free market produced smokeless tabs and e-cigs.
So Philip Morris will use the FDA to ban both, pending further “studies.”
Why else would PM be so eager for FDA regulation?
safe, #279
f their $9/hr job.
Go into business with Gary.
You can co-own a kiosk :)
skep-tic says:
June 18, 2009 at 11:49 am
“I am waiting for the head tax to emerge… it would be so tempting for gov’t to do it– the most stable revenue stream possible. Everyone must pay $X to the gov’t each year. Not dependent on income, cap gains, property ownership, anything.”
UK used to have that -called the poll tax.
Needless to say it was NOT popular.
As a point of interest, it was introduced by the Tories, the right wingers, not the left. Margaret Thatcher to be precise.
PGC #239 –
All good points. I really need real chips though, even if not perfect they are better than fries. Prefer beef drippings over lard.
As to the fish – all correct. I like it freshly caught and cooked to order. Yorkshire does it well as do fishing ports in Scotland – where they really take pride in the freshness. If it hasn’t just come in on the boat, they don’t have it.
I never cared for South England F&C, not sure exactly why, it just doesn’t taste right.
And don’t forget the ultimate component – newsprint.
People from Yorkshire are incoherent. I don’t think they even understand each other.
fish and chips yummmy.
I had awesome fish and chips in a little seaside place in the west of Ireland on my vacation last month. It was so well prepared I even took a picture!
skep – ever been to Glasgow?
My husband likens it to dogs barking.
Glaswegian is simple to understand. Every other word is f—.
I spent my jr year of college in Edinburgh. Scotland is a pretty cool place.
#281 – Sean – Beats working.
Ah, I was thinking about it in too linear a fashion. That makes sense.
Apparently the 2 men have already been released. After all they didn’t really do anything.
“The next door neighbor got downsized this week; they’re outsourcing her position to India. She was there for 20 years. Someone please let me know what I’m missing here. If you’re not working, you don’t spend money. And if you don’t spend money, services and retailers, etc. don’t make money… and can’t hire… and don’t show a profit… and retract further… and cut heads… who don’t spend… and so on. ”
At an aggregate level what you say makes perfect sense but you’ve outlined the prisoner’s dilemma in that ‘the other guy’ doesn’t want to be the one left holding the bag (inflated payrolls).
Sean – Lahinch?
On my trip to Ireland a few years back, I noticed a high percentage of very cute girls all with the same spare tire around their waist. Most weren’t heavy by any means, but they had the tire.
I attributed it to the heavy chips diet. A lot of the waitresses off the boat in NYC seem to have it as well.
Who cares, Irish foreplay consists of coming home drunk from the pub horny and yelling “Brace Yourself Bridget”!
Doyle says:
June 18, 2009 at 4:48 pm
Sean – Lahinch?
On my trip to Ireland a few years back, I noticed a high percentage of very cute girls all with the same spare tire around their waist. Most weren’t heavy by any means, but they had the tire.
I attributed it to the heavy chips diet. A lot of the waitresses off the boat in NYC seem to have it as well.
I was numberone on this year waiting list for Jets tickets. I snagged two front row ticket in Mezz around the 30 yard line. Then I was positioned myself for more tickets via my low number, so today I snagged two more tickets row one 50 yard line, for 2009 only six front row seats opened up all in pairs and I got four of them. This is crazy and a sign we are in a bad recession.
The company that laid me off 1099’d all of their field people last week.
Inside people were cut to 20 hrs or 4 day work weeks. The olny people not cut were senior management. It’s amazing that a poorly run co can get by for so long when the economy is stronger. Bad companies implode when things get bad.
Is their any incentive for our govt to say that those bonds were real?
That Kopecki article on FHA loan overload is headline-worthy.
You’ve got the Inspector General waving the white flag on exploitation and warning that we are almost certainly going to fall below the 2% mark on the insurance fund required. More taxpayer money is going to go to this fraud that Clot talks about almost every day, you have someone screaming about it and is the flow going to be cut off? No chance in hell.
It is absurd. How many of these buyers are buying in the areas that are most likely to suffer through substantial drops down in value? How many of these buyers are likely to lose their already low-paying job when the next 600,000 people are laid off?
Re #301 – Doyle that is the place and the term is muffin top for the women with the spare tire.
Re: cash offer/mortgage
I suspect if the house needs major repairs and the seller will only take cash he knows (or has been there)that a bank will not finance it in the current condition.
How about a rent with option to buy, where you make improvements during the rental period to get it up to lending standards and if you don’t buy it you get some $ back for the improvements?
Qwerty says:
June 18, 2009 at 4:04 pm
RE: “The seller only wants cash offers. I want the house, but I also need a mortgage in order to purchase.
What are my options?”
Offer above asking.
I hope DB put more thought into its housing report:
Deutsche Bank Corrects TUI Note
“Deutsche Bank AG, in a rare move, Thursday corrected its target price for the stock of travel and tourism company TUI AG after the share price tumbled earlier in the week on the basis of a research note issued by Germany’s biggest bank.
Deutsche Bank said that, in a note issued Monday, it had incorrectly classed an inter-company loan to subsidiary TUI Travel PLC “as a consolidation adjustment rather than a genuine asset.” It added that “largely because of this we adjust our price target from 1.9 euros to 4.4 euros.””
Oops.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124534318705128149.html#mod=testMod
I am a total newby about this. Appreciate getting some important details I was missing.
well they found 400 million in trenton.
cris over
Any truth that Edison, NJ is as well, if not more, known as other major US cities in India?
There are a ton of Indians in Texas. And Minnesota has a lot.
I still think of Queens, NY as ground zero, but that’s just me.
#305
Sean, I LOVE Lahinch, O’Looney’s on the beach is amazing. And yes, Muffin Top is the correct term. Thanks for clarifying.
sas says:
June 17, 2009 at 10:07 pm
“rebecca jarvis”
lol. yee better off getting a $1k/hr call girl.
this sweet pea doesn’t know anything about the real world.
tell you the truth, anyone in the financial press doesn’t know sh*t from shinola.
You mention black economy to anyone of those fellows, and they drool on themselves with deer in headlights look.
i wasn’t interested in her business acumen. but im married, i wouldn’t bid on a golf outing with a chick. i actually wouldnt bid on a round of golf with anyone.
well, maybe the inventor of fruit roll-ups.
i had mexican food at this joint, el vez, in philly last night.
got home and was on the toilet for 23 minutes. not kidding. i do bring NJ RE into the bathroom with me, though.
They are always off on forecasts for German and Brazilian markets.
THE END IS NIGH……
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090618/ap_on_fe_st/odd_bologna_robbery
Yikes, the true test is not the time, but the temperature.
Is it spicer coming out than it was going in?
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